No love

GTA sales crash 35%; Avg detached price plops 17%. Link.

Why did the Dow pop 300 points Monday? Because Trump’s blowing smoke. There’ll be no big whack against Canadian steel imports, which means all the hipsters and anarchists in Hamilton are safe. It’s political theatre. Crazy Donald stuff.

That was the thinking once senior Republican Paul Ryan openly disagreed with the president, joining just about everyone on the planet in pointing out how demented causing a trade war is. The impact was immediate. Stocks up. Bond prices down. Loonie shored. Yields up. Interest rate hikes back on the table. NAFTA talks carry on.

Of course, Trump being Trump, this could all change by Wednesday morning. But at this point markets think the Presidential panic of last week was overstated. So what can we expect now?

The Bank of Canada will increase rates again, but not this week. Maybe only once in 2018, perhaps twice – that depends on the economy, on trade and the dollar. But they will not be cut, and no relief is coming for a housing market about to enter its worst period in a long, long time. So crappy, in fact, the Toronto Real Estate Board delayed releasing its numbers on Monday, hoping for a 7.2 earthquake somewhere or maybe a new royal pregnancy.

No such luck.

Update: March 6, 8 am ET: The bad news is out. Sales plunge 35% across the GTA. Average selling price down 12% while detached home values sink by 17%. Ouch.

Brenda is 83, lives on CPP and OAS and finally sold her mid-town house after Derrick, her 30-something son and blog dog, pointed out the obvious. So, suddenly, she could expect $800,000 and a monthly income bigger by $4,500, most of it tax-free. Lots to rent a shiny new condo with and still live on double what she had before. Closing was set for Friday. She moved out several weeks earlier into the new place. “That was hard,” she told me, “after forty years. Can’t believe the amount of stuff that had to go. Oh dear.”

Well, the buyers didn’t close. ‘Can’t get financing,’ was the reason – hard to believe at the end of the last possible day. More likely they saw a declining market, got cold feet, and thought it would be cheaper to choke. Maybe come back on the old lady for a big discount later. Or just walk away from a 5% deposit as the cheapest way out of a poor deal.

Brenda is left with a year’s lease on the condo, an empty, ugly house showing its age, all the costs of home ownership, and yet no income to pay for it. To fight she’ll have to hire a litigation lawyer and foot his ten-grand retainer. Which won’t happen. And the buyers know it. Despicable. Let’s hope they don’t meet Derrick outside a dark donut shop in the east end.

Expect more of this. The numbers out of the Toronto Real Estate Board – tomorrow, if they have the courage – will be awful. A big drop in volumes, especially for detached homes. Prices will stay relatively sticky, and the extent of the market weakness will be somewhat masked (again) by the ongoing moister demand for condos. As documented here, there are already drops in sale prices of 20% or more in many parts of the GTA, so the news of falling sales will further push the meme that this is a crappy time to buy.

A major myth is that house-lusty buyers pace anxiously on the sidelines of a robust real estate market, ready to run in and pounce once prices crash. That’s been at the core of the NDP strategy in BC, for example, where tax upon tax has been levied in the hope of crashing prices so properties become affordable and will be snapped up by average families.

But, it won’t happen. Not in Van. Not in Toronto.

People want things that are rising, even if they can’t afford them. They shun things that fall, even when they can buy. So when valuations drop by a fifth or a third there’ll be no feeding frenzy. Fear always replaces greed and desire. People hang off buying because prices might erode further. They’re scared of making a mistake – which seems a lot more real to them in a falling market than a rising one. Mostly they lack the courage to do the unpopular thing.

Thus, sales and prices fall together in a self-reinforcing loop. This is human nature on display. So when realtors reluctantly announce average prices have crashed by a quarter, you know what to expect (and what to do).

It won’t be tomorrow. But it’s coming.

 

207 comments ↓

#1 Andrewski on 03.05.18 at 6:24 pm

Good lord, a realtor knocked on our front door last night, what can the matter be?!

#2 Emma Zaun - Greater Fool Unpaid Intern #007 on 03.05.18 at 6:26 pm

Thanks for nothing, Garth.

Keeping all the unpaid interns at work until well after 6 p.m. so you could re-watch the Academy Awards ceremony twice more and look for lines to steal from Kimmel before posting today’s treatise to the deplorables.

Not cool :(

#3 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 03.05.18 at 6:28 pm

The housing market is crashing you dirty SHYSTERS. I BET you still tell your clients to commit financial suicide and buy. This housing market will crash for YEARS. The GTA will see 40+ losses

#4 Real Man Needed! on 03.05.18 at 6:28 pm

Trump for Prime Minister! Get our globalist cupcake loser out of office! I would love to see him box Trump. Trump would clobber him even with 30 yrs on him. Garth would be a perfect T2 corner man. Smoking Man will corner Trump. I’ll be the ring girl in my red bikini.

#5 Scared Canadian Millenial on 03.05.18 at 6:29 pm

The Loonie is losing value to the US, Euro and British Dollar. Our Loonie is at 76 cents US…It’s falling! I will ask Poloz to re-introduce the $1,000 pink note because of a currency collapse.

#6 NotLegalAdvice on 03.05.18 at 6:30 pm

“The Bank of Canada will increase rates again, but not this week. Maybe only once in 2018, perhaps twice” .

I was expecting it to increase 3 – 4x this year. If they don’t increase at least that, there won’t be a 15 – 20 percent drop in Home prices.

As a millennial, do I want increased rates and low priced real estate, or higher priced real estate and low interest?

With my luck, it’ll be high interest and high real estate prices.

#7 VanMan on 03.05.18 at 6:30 pm

“It won’t be tomorrow. But it’s coming.”

Not in lower B.C. There may be a few one-off’s needing to sell at a loss, but there will be more than enough buyers lined up…there is still piles of cash floating around this city and even more waiting in the wires (pun intended) to snap up any decent property. Down periods are buying opportunities for those with cash and they know this won’t last long in the southern part of B.C.

#8 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 03.05.18 at 6:34 pm

Buyers are still walking away you filthy SHYSTERS. Only the few stupid Millennials can be conned into buying. They are the stupid generation of puppets.

#9 Smartalox on 03.05.18 at 6:37 pm

There are some of us that are house lusty buyers pacing the sidelines, ready to pounce on a deal once prices crash – the myth is not that we exist, the myth is that there are large numbers of us.

I suspect, given the figures for how many people have home-equity lines of credit, how many people make interest-only payments, and how many can’t even manage interest payments, that the number of families biding their time, ready to vultch real estate is vanishingly small.

Certainly I look around at the other families we know, and I don’t see anyone else in the same position as we are – renting and saving. Some are content, and secure, and making ends meet, but others…not so much.

When 3+ bedroom, 2+ bathroom detached homes are selling for under $750k in the better parts of BCs lower mainland, we’ll be ready.

Until then, we’re biding out time… patiently saving… balanced… diversified…

#10 Gyga on 03.05.18 at 6:37 pm

Finally Garth you sound confident about 30-50% haircut in GTA. Down she goes

#11 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 03.05.18 at 6:41 pm

They are now trying ro reprogram the srupid masses ro expect prices to crash for years and not recover for decades. Only a stupid puppet would buy in this crashing for years market. http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/gta-real-estate-sales-falling/

#12 Howard on 03.05.18 at 6:41 pm

That 5% deposit should at least easily cover Brenda’s rent for the year. In the meantime, hopefully she’ll discount the house heavily on condition of a very short closing period to finally offload the thing.

Actually, is it possible for a buyer to waive the closing period entirely in exchange for an extra discount from the seller? Does that happen?

Brenda gets none of the deposit, of course. It is held by the listing brokerage in a trust account and can only be released when buyers and sellers sign a mutual release – which is not happening. – Garth

#13 Sam the Sham on 03.05.18 at 6:42 pm

Somebody should give 30 something Derrick a good hard boot in the ass. Little smart ass know-it-all got his mother into this mess and he should get her out. Man up and pay her rent for her you sniveling cuck!

#14 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.05.18 at 6:42 pm

Sad story, with a possibility of much more pain to come. That is the reason interest rates will stay as low as possible for as long as possible. Too bad for the loonie.

#15 Nonplused on 03.05.18 at 6:46 pm

I wonder how many of these so-called empty houses in Vancouver and Toronto are actually owned by local speculators? You know, realtors and such (who often dabble in the markets they are familiar with).

Sad news for Brenda but at least she gets to keep the $40,000 deposit. Hopefully that’ll tide her over until she can sell the place. Personally I couldn’t fathom walking away from $40,000 like that so maybe the buyers really couldn’t close. But on the other hand if so where did they come up with $40,000? Hopefully not BOM (Mom, not Montreal) or mom’s gonna be really pissed! And who runs around dropping $40,000 without knowing whether or not they can close? That’s what pre-approvals are for. You’d have to be nuts to be dropping that kind of money without one.

Anyway, it was probably time for Brenda to downsize anyway so she should just relist. I’m sure she can sell it before things get really crazy. It would be foolish to hold the property and hope things get better, sometimes it’s just time to sell!

#16 Brandon Koepke on 03.05.18 at 6:46 pm

Buyers who hold off in a falling housing market may be acting rationally. There are multiple papers showing that housing has a strong momentum effect; what goes up continues to go up and what goes down continues to go down. (Case and Shiller 1988 is the seminal paper: https://www.nber.org/papers/w2506.pdf).

There is also strong evidence for mean reversion, meaning that the longer home values have risen the more likely they are to fall. (How Long Do Housing Cycles Last?
A Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11231.pdf).

This bolsters my point that if prices fall a bit there will be no surge of buyers to shore them back up. Pure myth. – Garth

#17 Decel on 03.05.18 at 6:48 pm

What are your thoughts on Blackrock’s kahuna believing that Poloz will only trigger once this year?

What do you think will happen in 2019 to the economy/housing/stocks if he does only do it once this year while down south they go for a foursome? Assuming Trump doesn’t tweet anything else of course *cough*

#18 What is that thing? on 03.05.18 at 6:49 pm

The predictions of 3 rate increases for 2018 will be shown to be nonsense. If the economy really takes a hit, watch rates plummet down.

Hey, here’s a prediction you can count on; In 10 years time, Canadian RE, of all types, will be worth much more than it is today.

#19 SmarterSquirrel on 03.05.18 at 6:51 pm

In the absence of TREB data, there is Zolo data.

https://www.zolo.ca/toronto-real-estate/trends
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

Based on those sites it seems detached home sales are down significantly year over year for February. And Toronto detached prices seem to have declined. Will be interesting to see what spin TREB puts on their data.

#20 the ryguy on 03.05.18 at 6:51 pm

Hi,

Im 34, single, dad to a cute french bulldog, $150k/year business owner with my only debt being a car loan. Oh and I got out of real estate back in 2014, so yes, I rent.

I convinced my former landlords, and current friends, last spring to sell the house I had been renting…as they owned 3 properties and were still broke. They did. They immediately bought a new Lexus, broke again I would assume.

Me on the other hand..having no reason to stay in Freezing Edmonton & being able to work from a laptop…I decided to skip winter and rented a place in Cabo for the winter. Gotta say…Its awesome not seeing snow.

Why do I tell you this story? Am I bragging..maybe a little bit..lol. Really though, in theory I am one of those “house horny” sideline pouncers just waiting…no debt, good financial spot etc..2 things

1) There aren’t a ton of us (65-68% of you shmucks already own at least one property)
2) I have absolutely positively ZERO desire to dive in. None whatsoever.

Honestly I don’t see a benefit to doing it. Downside is..especially if I decide to continue my winter getaways…Moving in and out of a place multiple times a year, which does suck.. but then I remember I can pay someone else to do it rather than paying property taxes…hmm yeah tell me again why I should invest in Canadian Real Estate?

Sorry if you’ve over extended, I truly am, but Im not bailing you out. If you’ve stayed liquid this long and haven’t taken the plunge, don’t do it.

#21 Mark on 03.05.18 at 6:52 pm

there was an article on cbc news today flogging the current situation in Ottwaw as an impending sellers market. curious about your take on this Garth, apparently listings are very low here. would appreciate your thoughts one of these days.

#22 BurlingtonShyster on 03.05.18 at 6:53 pm

Burlington Housing numbers

http://rahb.ca/press/2018/march/RAHB-Residental-Sales-Burl.png

Hamilton Housing Numbers

http://rahb.ca/press/2018/march/RAHB-Residental-Sales-Ham.png

Ruh-Roh

Burlington squished: 50% sales decline. – Garth

#23 Terry on 03.05.18 at 6:57 pm

“Crazy Donald stuff.”

President Trump is a very intelligent man and a fantastic negotiator. He’s got the whole world dancing and stirred up all around him. Brilliant, with an almost genius agenda! One of his management style tools is “Management by upset” and it’s working the Liberal/Democrat lefties and even the Republican progressives beautifully! Go Trump!

#24 Leichendiener on 03.05.18 at 7:01 pm

VanMan time will tell.

#25 Reximus on 03.05.18 at 7:06 pm

“Expect more of this” LOL

absolutely…this has NEVER happened before

#26 Paddler on 03.05.18 at 7:16 pm

It looks like Vancouver Island might be the next place for Developers to drive up house & condo prices. Lots of building going on in Mid Island especially around Nanaimo. Who would have thought.

http://www.westerninvestor.com/news/british-columbia/vancouver-island-s-low-prices-potential-entice-developers-1.23189257

#27 acdel on 03.05.18 at 7:17 pm

Unfortunate situation for Brenda, sadly this will be a common theme going forward, good-luck to her!

Garth, question, what are your thoughts on Som Seif? I have followed him for years, bright guy, analyst for many!

I think that the guy portrays fairly well what is happening in this interview, watch if you if you care or are interested!
The title of the link below is just click bait but the interview (I thought) was interesting.

https://www.bnn.ca/som-seif-says-he-s-readying-for-if-etf-industry-goes-to-zero-1.1017886

#28 I’m stupid on 03.05.18 at 7:21 pm

Speaking from Derek’s perspective, having a dependant mother, he should foot the bill. Or if Garth wants to take up a collection I’ll donate $100 to help her fight. I don’t like people taking advantage of seniors.

#29 Boombust on 03.05.18 at 7:26 pm

#7 Vanman

You are quite, quite delusional.

But, nice try on your part.

#30 jess on 03.05.18 at 7:27 pm

#23 Terry on 03.05.18 at 6:57 pm
my bet is on Steele and after you read this you will see the same dots. Up to Mueller to connect them.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/03/12/christopher-steele-the-man-behind-the-trump-dossier

#31 Todd on 03.05.18 at 7:29 pm

Kitchener/Waterloo

All sales down 20.5% YOY
Detached down 29% YOY

Sadly no price drops….yet.

#32 Camille on 03.05.18 at 7:31 pm

Regarding Minto of Ottawa, it was once said the housing developing business was the last bastion of free enterprise. Of course, that was 40 years ago. Mr. Trump is a septuagenarian developer. Perhaps he believes in capitalism. Perhaps the Canadian government does not so much. Its so easy to blame Mr. Trump.

#33 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.18 at 7:31 pm

No Love?
Why that dog has two heart shaped spots!
Now thats love.
Kinda like Happy Housing Crash giving a former realtor begging on a street corner one thin dime……

#34 Eyestrain on 03.05.18 at 7:32 pm

#226 jess on 03.05.18 at 4:26 pm
millennials and their BLOOD plasma (what is their cut) selling to the boomers…..

PROCEDURE
Young blood is an exciting new therapy which shows promise for aging and the reversal of conditions such as Alzheimer’s disease. Our patients have reported improvements in areas such as energy, memory, and skin quality. The treatment is an outpatient procedure and takes about 2 hours.
1 liter treatment for $8,000 2 liter treatment for $12,000
*************

Very interesting, “New Girl”.

I followed a comment from your link and found others are claiming the same positive effects with silicon-enriched mineral water. It seems the silicon binds to the aluminum that purportedly causes Alzheimer’s, allowing it to be excreted. Cheaper than blood and tastier too. So who’s going to buy our aluminum now ?

https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-alzheimers-disease-reports/adr170010

#35 Edmview on 03.05.18 at 7:36 pm

Not sure why some think Vancouver will avoid the coming debt wave. I have an office in Edm and Van since I refuse to move to the lower mainland. Our firm can’t replace the Vice President & GM in Vancouver when they retired and had to hold our nose to hire an ops manager. The reason?? Out of our 2000 personnel across Canada not a single person wants to move to Vancouver after looking at the numbers. Everyone I do business with commutes a ridiculous amount of time in 10 foot increments, is piano wire tight with debt and their stress levels are through the roof. It is the definition of groupthink.

#36 Reynolds531 on 03.05.18 at 7:46 pm

Hopefully the runner up still wants the house.

#37 tccontrarian on 03.05.18 at 7:49 pm

“Mostly they lack the courage to do the unpopular thing.” -GT
========================================

Unless, of course, they’re highly-trained ‘contrarians’!
But then again, if ‘everyone’ was acting contrarian, they’d fall in the majority – which couldn’t be a contrarian position, by definition.

TCC

#38 dakkie on 03.05.18 at 7:50 pm

DELETED

#39 Ronaldo on 03.05.18 at 7:50 pm

#18 What is that thing? on 03.05.18 at 6:49 pm

Hey, here’s a prediction you can count on; In 10 years time, Canadian RE, of all types, will be worth much more than it is today.
—————————————————————
You’re dreaming in technicolor. I expect we will see a period of around 10 years of no growth after a 20 or 30% drop in prices in the short term. The only thing that will be “much more than it is today” will be the amount of money people will have poured into a declining asset. What will be much more will be the value of bank stocks.

#40 YVR Renter on 03.05.18 at 7:52 pm

If you think markets can’t stay down for years you have a rude awakening coming. We moved to Kelowna in 1983 and prices promptly dropped and were still down when we left in 2002. The Alberta oil boom pushed it up shortly thereafter but I smell another drop.

#41 YVR Renter on 03.05.18 at 7:54 pm

Oops make that 1993

#42 YVR Renter on 03.05.18 at 7:56 pm

As for keeping the deposit, forget it. We sold a home in Ontario in 2012. The buyers couldn’t get financing and we kept extending the contract. In the end they walked with their money and it took 4 more months to sell

#43 Pete on 03.05.18 at 7:56 pm

#22 BurlingtonShyster

You are correct: prices are stable or slightly up, but Garth is also correct for highlighting number of sales down.

Demand is currently high due to sellers holding off listing in order to cause demand…as directed by shysters.

It will pop in a few months!!!

#44 the Jaguar on 03.05.18 at 7:59 pm

What a beautiful creature. Even the dark markings around his eyes are heart shaped. And the eyes within the those dark markings say ‘Love me and I’m yours forever’.

Curious that Brenda, 83 and her realtor did not insist on a waiver of any financing condition that may have been contained within the purchase agreement. Hope they provided a substantial deposit. There’s some wisdom in never entering into any new binding contracts until the ‘money is in the bank’. Downsize, shove the remains into storage, and transplant yourself somewhere inviting while the dust settles…not convenient, but freedom is never convenient.

#45 Rooster on 03.05.18 at 8:03 pm

How is financial literacy taught in Ontario schools?
http://www.edu.gov.on.ca/eng/parents/financial.html
**************

Thanks for the link Jess, or is it “New Girl”??

It looks like the literacy infomercial was quickly stitched together to placate someone. A lot of focus on getting parents to help out with the Min. of Ed.’s mindless mantra “reach every student”. Obviously, parents have a role to play, but it’s the kids of the parents that are getting payday loans to buy lottery tickets that they need to reach.

I searched the entire Encylopedia Bafflegabia Vol 4-12 and found only two instances of “amortization” . One is in Grade 11 – Information Technology Gettin’ it on with Excel, and #2 is in Grade 12 Computer Programming – “…rounding numbers”. Can’t these kids even use a calculator anymore? A.I. my ass.

Some fluff on “Economic Awareness” and “Consumer Understanding”, but I did find this gem in the Gr.4-8 curricula:
(Sample problem: At Andrew’s Deli, cheese is on sale for $11.50 for one kilogram. How
much would it cost to purchase 150 g of cheese?)

That’s easy – more than its worth. What little Johnny really needs to know is how come he can’t buy good cheese from people in countries who actually know how to make it for a decent price. Let’s introduce him to subsidies, tariffs, trade barriers, and monopolization at an early age so he can decide what he wants in his lunchables. Until that happens, we might as well all start cooking with aluminum pots again.

#46 Whatcha Minnie on 03.05.18 at 8:04 pm

I woke up around 10:30, made myself a greasy breakfast, spent a ton of time shopping online for sunglasses that you clip over your normal glasses, went to the library to study for a physiology exam, waiting until it stopped storming to go home, and ate an insane amount of egg salad, cookies, green beans, and coffee. The caffeine just hit me and now I am procrastinating before I start round 2 of studying. I have to go to bed early though, tomorrow I am going to ask someone for a job and I might actually have a good chance of getting it.

#47 TheDood on 03.05.18 at 8:15 pm

“It won’t be tomorrow. But it’s coming.”

‘Not in lower B.C. There may be a few one-off’s needing to sell at a loss, but there will be more than enough buyers lined up…there is still piles of cash floating around this city and even more waiting in the wires (pun intended) to snap up any decent property. Down periods are buying opportunities for those with cash and they know this won’t last long in the southern part of B.C.’
_—————————————

Spoken like a true realtor.
I often wonder about these “piles of cash” refered to by those in YVR. Would be willing to bet the YVR/Lower Mainland areas are among the most indebted in all of Canada, or the world for that matter.

#48 Ray on 03.05.18 at 8:16 pm

The Western Economies have an economic “Achilles Heel” that China could play instantaneously. No worries about steel or aluminum trade issues. When it comes to trading, China has a steel hydraulic powered hand grip on US’s “spheres “that it can slowly squeeze anytime it wants. The US will be powerless to respond against it at all, for it has currently has absolutely no alternative but to talk nice. The total irony of it is the US needs these materials to make the weapons it manufactures to threaten China. I’m talking about the Heavy Rare Earths. China produces about 95% of the globally supply of these minerals. Canada has some of the largest geological reserves but has made no serious effort to produce them. The reason is because these minerals are very hard to purify from each other and are usually found in radio-active ores. The lead time to mining the ores and producing a purified oxide can be a decade, even with a business-friendly government. T2 would never agree to contaminate the environment with these taillings. So, Pres Trump might want to be a little careful who he threatens with trade embargos, he might end up sucking on a vacuum.

#49 JettaFlair on 03.05.18 at 8:24 pm

Looking to jump ship in Coquitlam:

282 MUNDY STREET

Sales History (last 3 years)

18-Jul-2017 $1,200,000

$1,439,888 OP
$1,390,000 LP

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzWERLNg==

“Call for appointments”!

#50 DON on 03.05.18 at 8:37 pm

I was rooting for Derrick’s mom and then the next paragraph dropped.

At leased she leased the new condo. How much of the 5% deposit will she get? Hopefully the whole thing…so she can break the condo lease and use a bit for that $10K retainer. But a lot of her stuff is gone.

” And the buyers know it. Despicable. Let’s hope they don’t meet Derrick outside a dark donut shop in the east end.”

YUP!

“A major myth is that house-lusty buyers pace anxiously on the sidelines of a robust real estate market, ready to run in and pounce once prices crash.”

It is weird that people think this even though the meme changes.

“This is human nature on display.”
Our own worst enemy.

“It won’t be tomorrow. But it’s coming.”

Month(s) away? A year? Can we start the greater fool housing decline/crash pool? Or at least pick the moment when greed turns to fear? (when prices take a real tumble). Remember they may be sticky for a bit/while.

Have to be within a month to share some of the prize money, we can use bitcoins – they would actually be worth something.

Once again, be aware that a buyer’s deposit does not go into the seller’s bank account unless – possibly – it is a private sale. The downpayment is held by the listing brokerage and will not be released to the seller nor returned to the buyer without written mutual consent. In this case the seller will never see a cent unless a court order forces that outcome, or the deal closes. Even in the latter case, the entire deposit would go for realtor’s commission. – Garth

#51 Dan on 03.05.18 at 8:39 pm

I still don’t get it- I thought economics don’t apply to Canada real estate? I mean, 800k houses in BC is just, well, normal… I don’t live there but isn’t that how the locals talk…. “ja, we just closed on a 875k place in Abby, ja know, because Tim is cleaning a cool 47k after tax this year”.

I hope the whole market blows up. Does that sound mean and resentful? It actually isn’t. Who friggen cares but it is simply sad how stupid and how many financial morons in BC there are…but then again, it’s real estate so maybe that 875k 1994 gem will be worth 1.8 mil in a few years. I gave up years ago and will stay away as long as possible. GO NDP! I really mean that. Criminal Liberals should all be in jail.

#52 IVoteIndependent on 03.05.18 at 8:40 pm

Time for another reader survey:

Which blog dogs work for a Russian troll factory?

And which ones are just entrepreneurs (i.e., self-employed trolls)?

#53 will on 03.05.18 at 8:44 pm

sorry for Brenda.

#54 Axehead on 03.05.18 at 8:45 pm

Sad story. But given her age, mom’s probably been in the house for a very long time and paid 1/6th the last list price. I suggest she cut her losses, discount until it sells, and still she would be better off.

#55 Trumpocalypse2018 on 03.05.18 at 8:51 pm

Only 10 Days to the Ides of March !!!!!!!!!!

Horrific chaos, catastrophe begins 10 days from now.

Canada.

USA.

Worldwide.

PREPARE.

#56 Myra Andrews on 03.05.18 at 8:53 pm

Stats for Greater Vancouver on March 5

Is this a sign of things to come?

New 316
Price Change 60
Sold. 104
Total Inventory 8344

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Victoria sales in March are running 50% colder. – Garth

#57 Linda on 03.05.18 at 8:53 pm

Sad about Brenda, I wonder if there is legal aid for someone in her situation? Because while it likely won’t happen, those buyers should be sued for damages including the condo rental costs, Brenda’s legal fees & so forth.

I agree that there won’t be hordes of buyers ready to wade into the market the moment prices become affordable. First because everyone’s definition of affordable is different & if house prices dropped by say 25% overall doesn’t mean that the lower price is affordable. So what if that one million dollar property is now worth $750,000? If all you can afford (get financing for) is $500,000 that $750,000 property is still not ‘affordable’ insofar as you are concerned.

Second, given the stats quoted in earlier blog posts, quite a few folks haven’t saved anything for retirement; have not maximized (or even opened) an RRSP or a TFSA, let alone built a portfolio. Savings are meager or nonexistent, debt is epic & so on. Those folks may want to buy, but reality says that isn’t going to happen.

#58 Mark Baum on 03.05.18 at 8:59 pm

#225 LivinLarge on 03.05.18 at 4:23 pm
If you really need to blame someone then blame the rocket scientist who named them tax free “Savings Accounts”. Even calling them “Tax Free Retirement Savings Accounts” would have gone a long way toward avoiding the misconceptions.

It takes less than half an hour for any adult who can read to learn what can be held inside a TFSA. Don’t make excuses for people who don’t take the time to do research on something so important for their own (and by extension Canada’s social system when it comes to retirement) future. The name of the account is fine.

I have a friend who has their MBA and is basically illiterate when it comes to their own personal finance, it’s absurd.

#59 akashic record on 03.05.18 at 9:05 pm

Once again, be aware that a buyer’s deposit does not go into the seller’s bank account unless – possibly – it is a private sale. The downpayment is held by the listing brokerage and will not be released to the seller nor returned to the buyer without written mutual consent. In this case the seller will never see a cent unless a court order forces that outcome, or the deal closes. – Garth

I always wondered why can Canadians put up with a system like this?

It circumvents the function of downpayment by default if in reality a court order is required to execute what should be an ironclad, yet pretty standard legal contract. We are not talking about a handcrafted, sophisticated financial, legal corporate deal, this is as basic transaction among citizens as it can get.

It’s one thing to be “nice” and an other to take the role of a schmuck, seemingly by design.

#60 Andrew Woburn on 03.05.18 at 9:07 pm

Paddler on 03.05.18 at 7:16 pm
It looks like Vancouver Island might be the next place for Developers to drive up house & condo prices. Lots of building going on in Mid Island especially around Nanaimo. Who would have thought.
=====================

It’s not surprising really. North Nanaimo is not a decaying milltown hellhole. It is a pleasant and wonderfully convenient place to live especially for retirees.

Developers aren’t about to drive prices though. A waterfront spread near us is on offer at $2.5 million. In 2012 it would have gone for half that.

#61 Smoking Man on 03.05.18 at 9:07 pm

Yesterday I called a disaster on ratings on the Academy awards. It was the lowest in History.

Political Correctness is getting back lashed huge. Glad T2 dose not understand. It’s good. He will single handedly be responsible for making Libralism extinct.

#62 What is that thing? on 03.05.18 at 9:10 pm

#39 Ronaldo on 03.05.18 at 7:50 pm

“What will be much more will be the value of bank stocks.”

————————————————————–

Agreed. Bank stocks will all be worth much more in ten years time. Politicians will make sure of it. They love to serve on any financial sector board of directors when they finally get out of politics. And insurance and RE as well. It’s a FIRE economy!

There may be a few hiccups along the way, but RE will go up long term.

Interesting that despite very high debt loads, Canadians have a very low mortgage default rate. As reported by Huffington post, just .24 per cent of mortgages were three months or more past due in November of 2017, the latest month for which data is available, according to the Canadian Bankers Association.

#63 Mark Baum on 03.05.18 at 9:11 pm

#28 I’m stupid on 03.05.18 at 7:21 pm
Speaking from Derek’s perspective, having a dependant mother, he should foot the bill. Or if Garth wants to take up a collection I’ll donate $100 to help her fight. I don’t like people taking advantage of seniors.

I’ll donate as well for legal representation to help the Mom and keep these ‘buyers’ accountable

#64 Albertaguy in AZ on 03.05.18 at 9:12 pm

…we take this short break from feeling sorry for Brenda…

The Iditarod is underway. And it’s controversial this year

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/iditarod-2018-troubles-race-begin-1.4560012

now back to Brenda…

#65 Fiendish Thingy on 03.05.18 at 9:15 pm

Doesn’t matter if BOC raises rates- the US Fed will raise 3-4 times this year, which will drive up bonds, which will drive up mortgages, everywhere, maybe just a little slower in Canada. If the BOC doesn’t raise rates after the Fed, the loonie will drop, creating inflation, which creates pressure on the BOC to raise rates…they’re going up sooner than later.

I won’t be buying until SFD drops in the lower mainland by 30+%, maybe closer to 35-40%. Then, I will gleefully snap up a 3bd/2ba house for under $500k!

#66 Tyler bozek on 03.05.18 at 9:15 pm

Preferred shares have no upside at $25. Bad idea to buy.

#67 Blacksheep on 03.05.18 at 9:19 pm

Jetta #49,

“Looking to jump ship in Coquitlam:

282 MUNDY STREET

Sales History (last 3 years)

18-Jul-2017 $1,200,000

$1,439,888 OP
$1,390,000 LP

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzWERLNg==

“Call for appointments”!”
——————————
Respectfully, why are you sharing this with the blog?

Do me a solid and please help me out here.

Thanks in advance.

#68 IKnow on 03.05.18 at 9:25 pm

YVR: don’t see any drop in the sub $500k cheap housing at all, in fact prices keep going up each month.
Mind you though there are very few such sub $500k stocks, some older townhouses and condos in Surrey possible.
Other townhouses or ‘cheap’ SFH, mainly in Surrey, from 600k to 1.4M, are still up slightly, 5%-10% from a year ago.

#69 TheSecretCode on 03.05.18 at 9:27 pm

#40 YVR Renter – Bang on.

We have already entered the next cycle phase…it WAS good…

I have only had a few tire kickers so far…no offers on the Kelowna SFD.

When the realtors are screaming, prices are dropping.

When the non-home owners on this blog are screaming, prices are rising.

RBC just re-appraised and dropped priced on a Kelowna SFD by 30k last week. I am pretty sure they have up to date appraisal information.

#70 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.05.18 at 9:29 pm

$C tanking in Asia….so expect a pick up in buyers who have Canada on sale again with US dollar fixed Yuan.

Chevron pulls out of Canada…..more billions in revenue lost….thx to Mrs Justine Butts and the Liberal Party. NAFTA is dead…..Unifors Dias wants to impoverish Canadians into desperate beggars.

#71 DON on 03.05.18 at 9:35 pm

#18 What is that thing? on 03.05.18 at 6:49 pm

The predictions of 3 rate increases for 2018 will be shown to be nonsense. If the economy really takes a hit, watch rates plummet down.

Hey, here’s a prediction you can count on; In 10 years time, Canadian RE, of all types, will be worth much more than it is today.
*************

Real data has only been on the internet for what 12-14 years. There are other sources that go back to the last housing bubble/burst and it took more time than ten years…meanwhile 10 years is a long time to spend treading water. 10 years will mean nothing once the damage has been done.

#72 cultural elitist on 03.05.18 at 9:43 pm

@58-Mark Baum
I have a friend who has their MBA and is basically illiterate when it comes to their own personal finance, it’s absurd.

Sadly no different than any other degree. A degree does not equal an education. To get an education, you have to be motivated by something other than dollars or prestige.

//rant on //

Although MBAs do particularly annoy me, because by some quirk of our history, we’ve given them far too much authority. A smattering of economics, accounting, marketing and ops mangement, and suddenly some hotshot thinks he’s qualified to make strategic decisions for a health-care institution or a waterfront redevelopment.

It’s really sad how actual expertise has been replaced by managerial claptrap, in basically every industry. Actual expertise gets lost in the jargon and the ego, and the lure of fast lucre.

To Mark’s point about the TFSA: I agree. If you’re relying on the name of something to “sell it” to the masses, then the masses have already lost. Which ironically may be why they are all so impressed by MBAs.

//rant off//

#73 A J on 03.05.18 at 9:46 pm

#23 Terry

Yeah, cause nothing says intelligent leadership like creating pure chaos.

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.18 at 9:46 pm

@#55 Trumpocalypse2018

Trumpy Trumpy Trumpy……..

You started your “The End is nigh!” schtick 2 years ago.

The only thing “apocalyptic’ is your predictive abilities.

Promise me that when we’re all here in March 2020
( Garth willing)…….you’ll change your name to “Chicken Little 2020”

#75 Nevin Noseplug on 03.05.18 at 9:48 pm

#46 Whatcha Minnie on 03.05.18 at 8:04 pm

I woke up around 10:30, made myself a greasy breakfast, spent a ton of time shopping online for sunglasses that you clip over your normal glasses, went to the library to study for a physiology exam, waiting until it stopped storming to go home, and ate an insane amount of egg salad, cookies, green beans, and coffee. The caffeine just hit me and now I am procrastinating before I start round 2 of studying.”

Would not want to be stuck in the polar methane gas vortex near you at the library.

#76 DON on 03.05.18 at 9:49 pm

Once again, be aware that a buyer’s deposit does not go into the seller’s bank account unless – possibly – it is a private sale. The downpayment is held by the listing brokerage and will not be released to the seller nor returned to the buyer without written mutual consent. In this case the seller will never see a cent unless a court order forces that outcome, or the deal closes. Even in the latter case, the entire deposit would go for realtor’s commission. – Garth

That sucks!

I couldn’t remember the past posts on down payments. Was being lazy – Another case of human nature.

Poor lady!

#77 Mr Buyer on 03.05.18 at 9:51 pm

It only took ten years but now my wife is looking at me not so much like I am a complete blowhard talking out of my ass. I got up this morning to see her cruising realtor.ca and she looked at me astonished. She went on to say something like the house she has been watching is shedding 10k a day in front of her eyes. She went on to say lets wait. So we are still waiting to buy a house in Canada. Who knows, maybe for another ten years. By that time I will be putting my name on waiting lists for old age apartments. That is okay with me but I have young kids and we are burning up the hockey years. Priorities man. Apparently hockey is a sport and a form of entertainment. Some cultures are extremely peculiar, it has been a real eye opener living abroad. I am serious man, some places think hockey is a sport or something like that. Anyways I want to go home soon and sharpen skates and drive zambonis for the next 8 or 9 years.

#78 Myra Andrews on 03.05.18 at 9:52 pm

Got this stat from realtor PaulB. I do not know Paul but included his website since he is kind enough to post these daily stats

Greater Vancouver March 5

New
New 316
Price Change. 60
Sold. 104
TI:8344

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

#79 Mr Buyer on 03.05.18 at 9:52 pm

I am wondering if it was the BOC rate hike or the CMHC rule changes that got this ball rolling

#80 SaggySemi on 03.05.18 at 9:53 pm

I laugh when I see people drop a million – or even just half a million – on a semi detached home or a row house. You had better hope that is sound proofed, or that your neighbours are decent people. We rent a semi and our neighbours just bought drums for their kid. So now we get to hear the banging and clanging allllllll night long. Who the heck would pay a million for this???? I sure as heck wouldn’t….

#81 DON on 03.05.18 at 9:55 pm

Derrick: Like other posters have said – your mom should keep listing and get out. Catch a greater fool.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.18 at 9:58 pm

@#69 Noseplug
“Would not want to be stuck in the polar methane gas vortex near you at the library.”
+++++++

Hey hey hey! Stealin my “thunder”

Yes I agree.
After egg salad, greasy brekkie, green beans, coffee, cookies………. explosive gas…..one spark…..apocalypse………ya dont want to end up in the hospital like “Axeman”

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2018/03/01/car-explosion-woodlawn/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjCn9O92dbZAhUSmoMKHfVgB0sQFggdMAI&usg=AOvVaw3yvvf7ImV-UJrEIGhMiyUE

#83 Dave on 03.05.18 at 10:02 pm

She could walk away from the condo….

#84 Rargary on 03.05.18 at 10:12 pm

Looks like rargary is going the same way… downward spiral here we come ☹

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/calgary/real-estate-home-sales-down-calgary-february-report-alberta-1.4562328

#85 SoggyShorts on 03.05.18 at 10:25 pm

#6 NotLegalAdvice on 03.05.18 at 6:30 pm
As a millennial, do I want increased rates and low priced real estate, or higher priced real estate and low interest?
******************
Anyone entering the housing market should want low prices with high interest (assuming low&low is impossible)

This way if you put extra money in it makes a bigger difference, and if rates change you either have smaller payments or a shorter mortgage. And if prices change your networth increases.

Basically there is no upside when house prices are high and interest is low. The payments are the same, but things can only get worse.

#86 Mattl on 03.05.18 at 10:30 pm

Lived in the same house for 40 years, thats pretty cool. Don’t feel too bad for her, she prob paid the house of 20 years ago and whatever she gets from the house greater than zero is more then what the renter gets when they get bussed to the old folks home.

Such empathy. – Garth

#87 Ship Sailed on 03.05.18 at 10:40 pm

#60 Andrew Woburn on 03.05.18 at 9:07 pm
Paddler on 03.05.18 at 7:16 pm
It looks like Vancouver Island might be the next place for Developers to drive up house & condo prices. Lots of building going on in Mid Island especially around Nanaimo. Who would have thought.
=====================

It’s not surprising really. North Nanaimo is not a decaying milltown hellhole. It is a pleasant and wonderfully convenient place to live especially for retirees.

Developers aren’t about to drive prices though. A waterfront spread near us is on offer at $2.5 million. In 2012 it would have gone for half that.

——–

That ship has sailed with the application of the 20% foreign buyers tax and 2% speculators tax to Nanaimo and surrounding areas…..

#88 NorthOf49 on 03.05.18 at 10:43 pm

Burlington Housing numbers

http://rahb.ca/press/2018/march/RAHB-Residental-Sales-Burl.png

Hamilton Housing Numbers

http://rahb.ca/press/2018/march/RAHB-Residental-Sales-Ham.png

Ruh-Roh

Burlington squished: 50% sales decline. – Garth
———————————————————–

Yup. All you need to know about Ham-Burl February sales in one table, no area remains unscathed:

https://www.facebook.com/RAHBNews/

In my neck of the woods, Ancaster, a sample:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19073490/28-LLOYMINN-Avenue-Ancaster-Ontario-L9G1H3

Original listing price, Fall 2017 – $1,099,000
After multiple price drops, current price – $949,000

#89 theoryAndPractice on 03.05.18 at 11:00 pm

I-How to Use Real Estate Trends to Predict the Next Housing Bubble

https://www.extension.harvard.edu/inside-extension/how-use-real-estate-trends-predict-next-housing-bubble

II- How Long Do Housing Cycles Last?
A Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11231.pdf

#90 I don't usually reply, but... on 03.05.18 at 11:03 pm

@#16 >Buyers who hold off in a falling housing market may be acting rationally.

I would side with GT here. Entering at the top, bottom, or falling, is a (potentially great) losing proposition compared to entering a rising environment. So, one holds, well past the bottoming out, just to be sure.

Thus, when it starts going down, it goes down *properly*.

#91 Smoking Man on 03.05.18 at 11:05 pm

#4 Real Man Needed! on 03.05.18 at 6:28 pm
Trump for Prime Minister! Get our globalist cupcake loser out of office! I would love to see him box Trump. Trump would clobber him even with 30 yrs on him. Garth would be a perfect T2 corner man. Smoking Man will corner Trump. I’ll be the ring girl in my red bikini.
…..

I like your choice of bikini color.;)

#92 common sense on 03.05.18 at 11:11 pm

Where have I been?

Was at Leafs Sabres game in Buffalo tonight and did they change the worlds to gender neutral in the anthem or did I mis- hear things?

Trudeau’s doing? What next?

#93 Pulp Faction on 03.05.18 at 11:12 pm

Most of the steel for the oilpatch comes from China. I imagine that chinese steel is Trump’s trade problem, not canadian steel. We can’t compete with steel from half a world away in our own country, let alone the USA.

#94 Nonplused on 03.05.18 at 11:41 pm

#42 YVR Renter

Maybe Garth, knower of all things knowable, can weigh in, but I thought that was the purpose of a deposit. It’s an upfront “break fee”, nonrefundable. Unless they put a condition in there that they get it back if they don’t close but I don’t think you have to accept that term. Otherwise what’s the point of a deposit? Just pay 100% when you close.

Now, if the building doesn’t pass conditions like the plumbing is no good or something, that’s different because then the seller misrepresented the property.

#95 Nonplused on 03.05.18 at 11:51 pm

Whoops never mind, I found Garth’s response on a different comment:

“Once again, be aware that a buyer’s deposit does not go into the seller’s bank account unless – possibly – it is a private sale. The downpayment is held by the listing brokerage and will not be released to the seller nor returned to the buyer without written mutual consent. In this case the seller will never see a cent unless a court order forces that outcome, or the deal closes. Even in the latter case, the entire deposit would go for realtor’s commission. – Garth”

Although I have to say I don’t understand the purpose of a deposit in such a case. I’ve only bought 3 houses before but I always thought the deposit was forfeit unless it didn’t pass building inspection or something.

Guess I was wrong.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.18 at 11:53 pm

@#56 Myra Andrews

Thanks for the link to a Real estate sales site.

WTH?

Are these Realtors so desperate for a sale they have to come here?

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3Dv4LPkmGO5Cc&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwi_8-eG89bZAhUB3IMKHa6eCqwQtwIIGTAB&usg=AOvVaw2eeETTVfOcv7MPDR7XU0cX

#97 Love ndp on 03.06.18 at 12:11 am

If the low loonie brings back chinese buyers the ndp will likelly increase fbt to 30%. Go ndp. Love you guys.

#98 Ronaldo on 03.06.18 at 12:15 am

#87 Ship Sailed on 03.05.18 at 10:40 pm

”That ship has sailed with the application of the 20% foreign buyers tax and 2% speculators tax to Nanaimo and surrounding areas…..”
——————————————————————
There has been quite a building boom here in Nanaimo these past 4 years or so both in commercial and residential. We had a period of about 4 years after the GFC where building came to a grinding halt. Assessments on our place up 22% over last year.

Here is an article in the Globe and Mail from March 2016:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/priced-out-of-vancouver-residents-turn-to-nanaimo-for-affordable-living/article28986908/

#99 JettaFlair on 03.06.18 at 12:31 am

#67 Blacksheep

If you don’t understand reason for the occasional post then tough.

Do what I do when I see your name. Scroll on by.

#100 Dolce Vita on 03.06.18 at 12:33 am

#13 Sam the Sham

Exactly. The first thing that came to my mind after reading the story.

People that give bad RE investment advice, especially to a Mother which is financially vulnerable as recounted by Garth, should pay up.

The poor woman. Hopefully her son will do the right thing and buck up to help his Mother out until she sells her place, since, the fault of what has happened to her rests on his shoulders and his alone.

#101 Garbage Can on 03.06.18 at 12:38 am

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3351-quebec-place

Bargain? LOL

#102 Midnights on 03.06.18 at 12:49 am

Foreign Investment into Canada Has Collapsed by 26% in 2017

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/canada/foreign-investment-into-canada-has-collapsed-by-26-in-2017/

#103 Dolce Vita on 03.06.18 at 12:49 am

God almighty, the “please don’t crash my RE paper asset value with interest rate increases” crowd are in full comment today (and their depressed acolytes, a.k.a., Realtors, et. al.).

If the dollar “crashes”, Canada will be accused of interest rate manipulation to say the least (great talking point for NAFTA negotiations) AND the cost of imports will increase (we have many, thanks to Globalization and our weather).

Currency manipulation means: Trump will go nuts with a countermeasure and as of late, he has been very good at scaring the heck out of entire countries, like Canada, with countermeasures he can enact with the stroke of a pen.

The latter means: inflation.

So, what do Central Banks do when inflation rears its ugly head?

RE pumpers posting yet again thinking someone will save them when the RE numbers say otherwise.

Greed and avarice are blinding to the facts.

#104 Stan Brooks on 03.06.18 at 12:54 am

Loonie shored? I surely hoped so.

But we might be looking at different loonies, the one that I am looking at continues/moderates decline against USD and Euro this morning (down 0.15 %).

With oil rising.

Agreeing that we will get max 1 rate increase is a relief but not to the currency or the retirees.

With the worst current account balance per capita in the world according to CIA:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html

and the highest house hold debt per GDP in the world coming out of the biggest credit bubble in the world
we have an ‘economy firing on all cylinders’ based on debt at the end of the credit cycle.

Of course it is all fake, debt based. And is not firing any more. More like hitting the fan in a rather smelly way.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_account

‘The current account is an important indicator about an economy’s health. It is defined as the sum of the balance of trade (goods and services exports less imports), net income from abroad and net current transfers.’

so in layman’s terms:

Positive current account – good.
Healthy economy.

Negative current account – bad.
sick economy.

The worst current account per capita in the world?
……………….
You fill in the blanks. But it is not pretty.

Cheaper loonie, fancy socks, greedy bill and shaky poloz will cause further capital outflows and further reduce competitiveness. further decline of economy is pretty much backed in, despite NAFTA hopes.

We need business friendly environment fast, like 10 years ago. Let housing market fail and focus on what we can do.

Instead we keep talking houses/voulchering, profiting from doing nothing.

Oh that bragging and these 15 minutes of fame, it is coming back to bite us big time.

#105 Dolce Vita on 03.06.18 at 1:03 am

#48 Ray

You forget, China was a 3rd World Nation economically until they went Capitalist in only a few cities during the 90s or earlier, forget the exact date span.

The West stepped in and made them, and that dalliance with Capitalism, the success they are today.

What the Lord giveth, the Lord can taketh away.

One of those Lords is called Trump.

#106 VanMan on 03.06.18 at 3:11 am

#29 Boombust on 03.05.18 at 7:26 pm

@#7 Vanman

You are quite, quite delusional.

But, nice try on your part.

___

It’s true that time will tell, however over the course of time (not the blips) I’m sure you’ll see that I’m proven to be right. The problem is failing to see Vancouver is now on par with world-class cities. Yes, deny it all you want and I’m sure you have many great arguments against it, but perception and reality are very different. It’s difficult to accept reality when it’s present, it’s usually only looking back in history do we realize what we missed.

#107 VanMan on 03.06.18 at 3:12 am

#29 Boombust on 03.05.18 at 7:26 pm

@#7 Vanman

You are quite, quite delusional.

But, nice try on your part.

___

It’s true that time will tell, however over the course of time (not the blips) I’m sure you’ll see that I’m proven to be right. The problem is failing to see Vancouver is now on par with world-class cities. Yes, deny it all you want and I’m sure you have many great arguments against it, but perception and reality are very different. It’s difficult to accept reality when it’s present, it’s usually only looking back in history do we realize what we missed.

#108 Mark Baum on 03.06.18 at 3:45 am

#62 What is that thing? on 03.05.18 at 9:10 pm
Interesting that despite very high debt loads, Canadians have a very low mortgage default rate. As reported by Huffington post, just .24 per cent of mortgages were three months or more past due in November of 2017, the latest month for which data is available, according to the Canadian Bankers Association.

RE: mortgage default rates – This is generally how housing bubbles work. The default rates gets lower the faster home prices go up & as the bubble approaches peak. This is because owners can take out home equity loans, lending gets creative, and worse comes to worse owners can usually sell their houses without problem (before becoming delinquent) as the market is very liquid.

When the bubble pops, this all reverses: home equity shrinks, credit tightens, and owners have difficulty selling as the market becomes more illiquid. This is typically accompanied with an alarming number of delinquencies, especially from those who overleveraged themselves during the boom.

Canada will likely Not escape this pattern.

#109 TRUMP on 03.06.18 at 6:14 am

35% Plunge in sales
17% Price plunge in detached home
12% Price plunge in average homes

SO WHAT??

Let’s not beat a dead horse.

Where do we put our money to work next?

#110 backwardsevolution on 03.06.18 at 6:14 am

#26 Paddler and #60 Andrew Woburn – two more realtor shills sucking and blowing.

#111 Stan Brooks on 03.06.18 at 6:38 am

To be honest, CAD seems recovering slightly against USD, keeps sliding against the Euro.

#112 A J on 03.06.18 at 6:54 am

Ouch. Feb #’s aren’t good….

ca.finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/greater-toronto-area-home-sales-110358968.html

#113 theoryAndPractice on 03.06.18 at 7:06 am

Recently, a friend got notice from the Realtor(R) for the house they are renting. The owner wants to sell the house,
They are also told current owner
purchased for $x, now they can buy $x+50K, else leave within 60 days. This is the notice for 60 days …

I can NOT exactly write here what I told them (HHCE is on the subject anyway, I will not repeat ), but the core is the following ;

– After a few click on Internet, found that the house is sold on May 2016 for $x-100K , but the owner indeed really asking from them with opportunity to buy $x+150K. That is almost 30% price appreciation for the house within 22 months.

– They are told , the reason for sale is the increased interest rates that owner can’t handle payments …

Friends are freaked what to do , within 60 days , how to find a place in winter time, with office/kids/school transportation etc.

So my suggestion is to do nothing until they are OK to move and ignore 60 days notice.

– When a lease agreement ends you don’t have to sign the next agreement sent, it goes automatically monthly afterwards.

– As long as tenant pays the rent, landlord can’t evict as they wish, unless ;

a- if landlord proves he is moving in and has no other option,
b- if landlord sells the house, and new owner personally moving in and they don’t have any other option.

Even so, other than not paying the rent, tenant will get extra time from courts under most conditions to extent the rental until they find a place to move.

So it is not simply landlord can throw the tenant as they wish. Know your rights. It is interesting friends are well educated but had no idea what kind of game they are pushed into.

Do your own research always,

If you have landlord issues , a good starting point ;

http://www.sjto.gov.on.ca/ltb/rules-practice-directions-guidelines/

for historical data of a house

http://www.housesigma.com -> with historical listing agreements dates/terminations for multiple listings mostly no time limit

http://www.mongohouse.com -> historical data within 30 days basically unless very new sale useless

http://www.zolo.ca -> use search engines along with zolo keyword, you ll get to exact history from years back.

#114 Asterix1 on 03.06.18 at 7:19 am

Nice to see that Tess Kalinowski at the TStar is still pumping garbage real estate articles on a regular basis!

TITLE: Toronto-area home prices saw year-over-year drop in February, as number of sales plunged

SUB-HEADLINE: “Despite a 12.4 per cent decline in the average price of a resale home in February from the previous year, the average was still above 2016 levels, the Toronto Real Estate Board said.”

FIRST SENTENCE OF ARTICLE: “A 12.4 per cent year-over-year drop in the average selling price of a Toronto-area resale home in February is not as bleak as it seems, says the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB)”

This is absolute garbage reporting and does not follow any journalistic ethics and standards!

#115 Victor V on 03.06.18 at 7:35 am

Toronto home sales plunge 35% in February as new rules rattle buyers

https://www.bnn.ca/toronto-home-sales-plunge-35-in-february-as-new-rules-rattle-buyers-1.1018802

Canada’s largest housing market couldn’t shake a winter sales chill in February, with another month of double-digit declines in the wake of the latest wave of regulatory changes.

Sales across the Greater Toronto Area plummeted 34.9 per cent year-over-year last month as 5,175 properties traded hands.

The overall average selling price was $767,818, marking a 12.4 per cent decline from the previous year but representing an uptick from January when the average price was $736,783.

#116 Howard on 03.06.18 at 7:38 am

Longtime Liberal Warren Kinsella tears T2 to shreds here : http://warrenkinsella.com/2018/03/column-justin-enough-already/

Also, new Forum poll out. CPC 46, Lib 34. Probably a bit of an outlier but in line with a shift also found in the recent Ipsos poll.

CBC aggregated poll tracker now shows CPC 38, Lib 35.6.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poll-tracker-federal-poll-averages-and-seat-projections-1.4171977

Only Quebec remains devoted to PM Prancer.

#117 Howard on 03.06.18 at 7:43 am

#94 Nonplused on 03.05.18 at 11:51 pm

Although I have to say I don’t understand the purpose of a deposit in such a case. I’ve only bought 3 houses before but I always thought the deposit was forfeit unless it didn’t pass building inspection or something.

————————————–

According to Garth, the buyer does indeed forfeit the deposit….but not to the seller. This is news to me but I’m no expert nor have I ever owned real estate. Is this the case in all provinces?

I guess Brenda needs to heavily discount her house and opt for a very short closing period to lessen the chance of second thoughts. No use trying to be “cute” with the price in a falling market.

#118 dosouth on 03.06.18 at 7:43 am

Interesting viewpoint from BlackRock on the BoC, rate increases or lack thereof, wouldn’t you say?

http://business.financialpost.com/market-moves-2/blackrock-says-market-being-too-aggressive-in-pricing-boc-hikes

#119 PastThePeak on 03.06.18 at 7:50 am

#96 Love ndp on 03.06.18 at 12:11 am
If the low loonie brings back chinese buyers the ndp will likelly increase fbt to 30%. Go ndp. Love you guys
+++++++++++++++++++++&+++++++++++++

I doubt foreign buyers are interested in buying into a declining market. Certainly not until they can see where the dust will settle. Generally someone who purchases a foreign property pays more attention than a local buyer, with many more factors at play.

#120 Jackaroo on 03.06.18 at 7:51 am

G’day Garth, I just came across this blog and wanted to let your mates know I have a similar blog: ” Going Down, Down Under”. It’s pretty samey. My mascot’s a bitzer, realtors are ex-cons, finance lads are sheep shearers, and the weather’s extreme. We aren’t as culturally diverse as you, but we celebrate it in our music*, and Mel is banned from posting. We also keep a lid on the avos & toast crowd.

If any of you Nanookians need another place to hang with your bong, look us up. Some of the boys can be a bit saucy, but you won’t find us as dry as a dead dingos donger. Sheilas welcome too. No sheepshaggers.

*
https://youtu.be/M_DHwp5vYBI

Google Translate
http://www.koalanet.com.au/australian-slang.html

#121 Howard on 03.06.18 at 7:52 am

One idea is for Derrick to buy his mother’s house, if he currently lives in Toronto and would like to eventually own a house anyway. She can give him an extra low price (she’s mom, after all), and he then ensures that she is cared for well in her old age and not wanting for money. Now of course any son should do that regardless!

Another benefit of selling within the family is that no realtor would be required, assuming there is mutual trust. Just perhaps a lawyer (I presume) to organize and manage all the paperwork.

#122 Steven Rowlandson on 03.06.18 at 8:33 am

Sales numbers are one thing but the real indicator of change is the selling price. The lower the price the better in more ways than one.

#123 Steven Rowlandson on 03.06.18 at 8:37 am

Re#5
He might see fit to cancel the $100 and $50 note if you are not careful. Anything to deny that there is any inflation.

#124 theoryAndPractice on 03.06.18 at 8:40 am

Fasten your seat belts at all times, this is going to be yuuuge…

https://www.thestar.com/news/crime/2018/03/06/four-arrested-in-17m-mortgage-fraud-investigation.html

#125 John Dough on 03.06.18 at 8:42 am

Once again, be aware that a buyer’s deposit does not go into the seller’s bank account unless – possibly – it is a private sale. The downpayment is held by the listing brokerage and will not be released to the seller nor returned to the buyer without written mutual consent. In this case the seller will never see a cent unless a court order forces that outcome, or the deal closes. Even in the latter case, the entire deposit would go for realtor’s commission. – Garth
*************

I think a case can be made for establishing another chartered bank in Canada. All the RE funds in “loitering or stranded escrow” could form the deposit basis for the new “Broker’s Trust Company”, but I think the name needs some polishing. At some point in time the funds will “escheat” (luv that word) to the Crown so we need to act fast!

#126 Howard on 03.06.18 at 8:44 am

Interesting how MLS’s own internally calculated HPI metric paints a much rosier picture of the GTA market than the raw metrics :)

#127 Smoking Man on 03.06.18 at 9:10 am

Seriously. From Treb.

As we move further into the spring and summer months, growth in sales and selling prices is expected to pick up relative to last year.

Haha blowing sunshine of a smoldering wreck.

#128 Ace Goodheart on 03.06.18 at 9:21 am

RE: “Brenda is 83, lives on CPP and OAS and finally sold her mid-town house after Derrick, her 30-something son and blog dog, pointed out the obvious. So, suddenly, she could expect $800,000 and a monthly income bigger by $4,500, most of it tax-free. Lots to rent a shiny new condo with and still live on double what she had before.”

This is sad. She is getting around $16,000 per year and she has to carry a house and a rental condo (which is probably over $1500.00 per month to rent, so basically more than her yearly income).

This is why I get so upset when young folks push old folks out of their houses. This lady has no possibility of working and her income is very low and very fixed. Yes $800,000 is a nice number, but you see what happens when things go wrong with this sort of “planning” for grandma.

It might be a better idea not to promote the solution of selling an old person’s house, investing their money and then renting them an expensive condo, in today’s real estate market. There is no such thing as a sure thing, until the cash is actually in your bank account. What has been done to this poor old lady will have effectively ruined what remains of her life.

#129 maxx on 03.06.18 at 9:26 am

#1 Andrewski on 03.05.18 at 6:24 pm

“Good lord, a realtor knocked on our front door last night, what can the matter be?!”

One came crawling out of the woodwork two days ago for us…..we essentially told it to scurry along and find us VALUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#130 maxx on 03.06.18 at 9:39 am

#6 NotLegalAdvice on 03.05.18 at 6:30 pm

““The Bank of Canada will increase rates again, but not this week. Maybe only once in 2018, perhaps twice” .

I was expecting it to increase 3 – 4x this year. If they don’t increase at least that, there won’t be a 15 – 20 percent drop in Home prices.”

No sweat – crappy job quality, stress test, huge wave of retail front-line automation, robotics and consumer debt will take care of the inevitable price resets.

Access to cash is what it’s all about and bankers are increasingly very conservative with borrower qualification. You need to do far more than fog a mirror to borrow now…….unless you’re willing to risk body parts and/or pay a lot more interest.

Just don’t be an idiot and buy as soon as you see a 5-cent drop. It’s more than worth the wait to see the cockroaches peddling re twist in the wind.

#131 dharma bum on 03.06.18 at 9:42 am

#33 crowdedelevatorfartz

Why that dog has two heart shaped spots!
Now thats love.
——————————————————————–
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcdQk7JBPzQ

You better hide that dog quickly! Somebody wants a nice new fur coat!

#132 Ole Doberman on 03.06.18 at 9:43 am

the crash is due to foreign investment dropping off by 26% in Canada, capital flows are fleeing BIG TIME!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/canada/foreign-investment-into-canada-has-collapsed-by-26-in-2017/

Nobody wants to invest here with the high taxes and pride parades

#133 neo on 03.06.18 at 9:44 am

To be honest, this market is holding up pretty well unless you live North of Toronto which is an unmitigated disaster.

We need to just throw out 2017 numbers altogether and compare 2018 to 2016. Prices are still up from then. April numbers will be the true tell once these pre-approvals before B20 run out.

#134 Justin S on 03.06.18 at 9:51 am

This blog, and the real estate reporting in general, really need to separate the 416 and GTA real estate markets.

Prices in my area of the 416 (Leslieville) have not dropped at all. In fact, they appear to keep going up. It’s now rare to find a 2 bdrm 2 bth semi for under $1 mil!

I guess that’s the price you pay for proximity to downtown Toronto.

Obviously the million dollar homes in Newmarket, Milton, Ajax, etc. are going to drop – but homes in the inner suburbs are keeping their value.

#135 Howard on 03.06.18 at 9:56 am

#126 Ace Goodheart on 03.06.18 at 9:21 am

What has been done to this poor old lady will have effectively ruined what remains of her life.

—————————–

Gosh. I wouldn’t go that far.

She just needs to re-list and discount it until it sells. Her house is in midtown Toronto, not Newmarket; it shouldn’t be hard to find to a buyer, might take a couple months. So she won’t get as much for it, oh well. She’s 83, it’s not like she needs many hundreds of K$. It might annoy her heirs but then that’s life. You can’t go through life hoping you’ll strike it rich when an elderly parent or relative passes on.

#136 Smoking Man on 03.06.18 at 9:56 am

You go into mounds of debt to get a collage education yet
No one will hire you in the end. All forms of reasoning skills crushed by the communist mindset.

Who will risk a dime hiring these zombies.

https://youtu.be/6htYi9x9GfM

#137 Victor V on 03.06.18 at 10:27 am

#122 theoryAndPractice on 03.06.18 at 8:40 am
Fasten your seat belts at all times, this is going to be yuuuge…

https://www.thestar.com/news/crime/2018/03/06/four-arrested-in-17m-mortgage-fraud-investigation.html

=======

Surprise surprise….realtors from Richmond Hill mentioned repeatedly in this piece. The collapse across York region will be historic.

#138 Duke on 03.06.18 at 10:31 am

#110 A J on 03.06.18 at 6:54 am
Ouch. Feb #’s aren’t good….

ca.finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/greater-toronto-area-home-sales-110358968.html

===================

This is just the beginning, and all numbers going forward will be far worse than this. This is a good thing for most people. Only those who over-extended will suffer.

#139 Tbone on 03.06.18 at 10:33 am

I agree with Justin ,
Prices in w 8 and w 9 have not nosedived either .
They seem to hold their own.

Checked on mongohouse and everything pretty much sells close to ask.

#140 Duke on 03.06.18 at 10:37 am

#28 I’m stupid on 03.05.18 at 7:21 pm
Speaking from Derek’s perspective, having a dependant mother, he should foot the bill. Or if Garth wants to take up a collection I’ll donate $100 to help her fight. I don’t like people taking advantage of seniors.

==================

Why? Brenda has an asset of $800k. She can sell it next day if she lower the price to $600k and the problem is solved. She has so much more money than you, and why do you want to help her? It is her own issue and her situation is better than most.

It is like you are giving $100 to someone driving Ferrari only because that Ferrari has flat tire. Stupid.

#141 Tater on 03.06.18 at 10:38 am

#132 Justin S on 03.06.18 at 9:51 am
This blog, and the real estate reporting in general, really need to separate the 416 and GTA real estate markets.

Prices in my area of the 416 (Leslieville) have not dropped at all. In fact, they appear to keep going up. It’s now rare to find a 2 bdrm 2 bth semi for under $1 mil!

I guess that’s the price you pay for proximity to downtown Toronto.

Obviously the million dollar homes in Newmarket, Milton, Ajax, etc. are going to drop – but homes in the inner suburbs are keeping their value.
—————————————————————–
Year over year, the average semi in E01 has gone from 1.1mio to 960k.

As the noted street poet Sean Carter has said, “Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t”

#142 Stan Brooks on 03.06.18 at 10:40 am

#130 Ole Doberman on 03.06.18 at 9:43 am
the crash is due to foreign investment dropping off by 26% in Canada, capital flows are fleeing BIG TIME!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/canada/foreign-investment-into-canada-has-collapsed-by-26-in-2017/

Nobody wants to invest here with the high taxes and pride parades

———————————-

One more reason not to invest here.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ontario-bring-apos-pay-transparency-090001981.html

#143 Justin S on 03.06.18 at 11:02 am

#139 Tater on 03.06.18 at 10:38 am

—————————————————————–
Year over year, the average semi in E01 has gone from 1.1mio to 960k.

As the noted street poet Sean Carter has said, “Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t”

Those aren’t the numbers I’m seeing, nor am I trying to lie when I state that I’m not seeing the softening of the market in my hood. Thanks for the insult though.

Toronto E01 – Townhouse: Jan 2017 $529,000 vs Jan 2018 $662,500 = $133,500 increase, or 25.24%

Toronto E01 – Single family attached: Jan 2017 $925,500 vs. Jan 2018 $960,500 = $35k increase or 3.78%

Toronto E02 – Townhouse: Jan 2017 $868,200 vs Jan 2018 $915,100 = $46,900 increase, or 5.40%

Toronto E02 – Single family attached: Jan 2017 $872,000 vs. Jan 2018 $946,000 = $74k increase or 8.49%

Sources:

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/home_price_index/pdf/TREB_MLS_HPI_Public_Tables_0118.pdf

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/home_price_index/pdf/TREB_MLS_HPI_Public_Tables_0117.pdf

#144 Smoking Man on 03.06.18 at 11:08 am

#140 Stan Brooks on 03.06.18 at 10:40 am
#130 Ole Doberman on 03.06.18 at 9:43 am
the crash is due to foreign investment dropping off by 26% in Canada, capital flows are fleeing BIG TIME!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/canada/foreign-investment-into-canada-has-collapsed-by-26-in-2017/

Nobody wants to invest here with the high taxes and pride parades

———————————-

One more reason not to invest here.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ontario-bring-apos-pay-transparency-090001981.html
………

They just don’t get it. Money has wings.
Wynee and T2 can passave aggressively demonize triditional males in an attempt to get every other vote.

Wont work. Backfire huge. People of all walks of life are sick if of divisive Political Correctness.

#145 Blacksheep on 03.06.18 at 11:11 am

Jetta #98,

“#67 Blacksheep

If you don’t understand reason for the occasional post then tough.

Do what I do when I see your name. Scroll on by.”
————————————–
I bought my first Jetta new 1992. Last of the Jetta’s (Jedis?) built IN Germany. Was an great little car. 1 of 6 VW’s owned, was a big fan. Also had a 1999 Jetta, but it was crap.

Too bad, Jetta and VW quality in general, has long since gone for shit and that’s ignoring the emissions scandal.

What am I doing, your not going to read this anyhow.

But if you do….

Thanks for the contentless, but reasonable response.

#146 45north on 03.06.18 at 11:15 am

Justin S: Obviously the million dollar homes in Newmarket, Milton, Ajax, etc. are going to drop – but homes in the inner suburbs are keeping their value.

it wasn’t obvious last year

#147 Ian on 03.06.18 at 11:15 am

I love these paid shills writing the TREB releases.

Where is “the market is correcting from an insanely bananas, massively overvalued, speculation heavy 21 year bull market”?

#148 Newcomer on 03.06.18 at 11:22 am

#105 VanMan on 03.06.18 at 3:11 am
… The problem is failing to see Vancouver is now on par with world-class cities.
—–

Perhaps you could elaborate. I can’t really understand what you are saying. I’m not sure what you mean by “on a par” in this context. I have lived in NYC, Tokyo and Paris, and spent a lot of time in London. I think of those as world-class cities. I have also lived in Rome, though I would not put it in the same group. I now live in Vancouver, and from my point of view, Vancouver is a very different kind of city. It’s sparsely populated, inexpensive (other than for purchased housing) and pretty quiet. There is not much going on, which is nice.

What aspects of Vancouver do you find similar to which world-class cities?

#149 RE_Investor on 03.06.18 at 11:26 am

#238 Old Ron the Realtor,

Thanks for those stats Ron. All of the houses in the decent Toronto neighbourhoods that I looked at over a month have all had bidding wars.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/03/04/sunk/#comment-578860

Any tips on placing an offer on this house.
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19126086/219-ST-MARKS-RD-Toronto-Ontario-M6S2J1-Lambton-Baby-Point

#150 Ronaldo on 03.06.18 at 11:27 am

#133 Howard on 03.06.18 at 9:56 am

#126 Ace Goodheart on 03.06.18 at 9:21 am

What has been done to this poor old lady will have effectively ruined what remains of her life.

—————————–

Gosh. I wouldn’t go that far.

She just needs to re-list and discount it until it sells. Her house is in midtown Toronto, not Newmarket; it shouldn’t be hard to find to a buyer, might take a couple months. So she won’t get as much for it, oh well. She’s 83, it’s not like she needs many hundreds of K$. It might annoy her heirs but then that’s life. You can’t go through life hoping you’ll strike it rich when an elderly parent or relative passes on.
—————————————————————-
And also keep in mind that these were unrealistic, illusionary gains in the first place created by bad government policies. The market will determine its true value as always. Drop the price until it sells. That’s what we had to do in the past as well. Not so different this time.

#151 Rocket Robin Hood on 03.06.18 at 11:28 am

Is TREB still running that ad on TV that says home ownership is “your key to financial security”?
I wonder how long my Series 7 registration would remain in effect were I try selling stocks with a line like that…

#152 A J on 03.06.18 at 11:37 am

#141 Justin S

You have to look at the City of Toronto market as a whole. Cherrypicking stats doesn’t make a difference when, on average, prices are down across the board. Anyone can pick some houses and go “see, prices are up.” AVERAGES are what matter…

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/03/06/1415568/0/en/TREB-Releases-Monthly-Market-Figures-Reported-by-GTA-Realtors.html

#153 For those about to flop... on 03.06.18 at 11:41 am

An admirable effort…

M43BC

“Visualizing the World’s Most Admired Companies.

“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently,” Warren Buffett once said. Reputations are a tricky thing to measure, and they are especially hard to grasp when a company’s products impact millions of people every single day. Lucky for us, Fortune developed a clever way to survey industry observers and executives, giving us with the data behind our new visualization.

We got the data from Fortune’s list of the most admired companies in the world. Fortune took the largest companies in the world in every industry, and surveyed executives and analysts asking them to rate the strength of each one. We took the top 50 all-star companies and placed the logos of each one in a circle within the headquartered country. The size of the circle corresponds to the company’s total market capitalization, with the largest circles representing companies valued at over $500B. We then color-coded each one by industry, and grouped the ones belonging to the same industries together. The result is a kaleidoscopic map of the most admired companies in the world that lets you quickly identify several trends about reputations in the corporate world.

First off, companies headquartered in the United States dominate the list, partly because Fortune’s methodology favored American companies, but also because the U.S. simply has thelargest economy in the world. Within the U.S., Apple totally dominates with a market cap of $905B, terrifyingly close to becoming the first trillion-dollar company in history. Amazon ($737B) and Microsoft ($735B) also stand out in the computer industry. Interestingly, the fourth largest company on our list is Facebook, but its market cap is significantly less at only $443B. The companies start to get crowded below Facebook’s valuation, as the map clearly demonstrates. In other words, the biggest companies are really, really big compared to everyone else.

The map also illustrates how the most admired companies come from a variety of different industries. From Internet companies to hotel chains and petroleum manufacturers, it is fair to say that a company can build a solid reputation regardless of industry. Many sectors also have more than one company making the list too, suggesting that a positive reputation can rub off onto similar competitors.

One more trend is worth pointing out. Almost all the companies on the list specialize in one industry. The exception is Berkshire Hathaway, which is listed as the only insurance company on our viz. That’s because they own GEICO as well as a few other insurance companies. In reality, Berkshire is a giant holding company with vested interests across a variety of different industries. Amazon, Apple and Google might be headed down a similar path, but they aren’t quite there yet. Building a good reputation requires a killer business model with mass appeal in a single industry.

Top 10 Most Admired Companies
1. Apple: Computers/Software/IT, $905B

2. Amazon: Internet, $7367B

3. Microsoft: Computers/Software/IT, $735B

4. Facebook: Internet, $443B

5. Berkshire Hathaway: Insurance, $237B

6. JPMorgan Chase: Financial Services, $412B

7. Johnson & Johnson: Pharmaceuticals, $354B

8. Alphabet: Internet, $341B

9. Exxon Mobil: Petroleum, $334B

10. Visa: Financial Services, $225B

The youngest company on this list is Facebook at 14 years old. Google is the second youngest with 20 years of experience organizing the world’s knowledge. Every other company has a longstanding legacy of product innovation and customer service. It looks like Warren Buffett was probably right with how long it takes to build a good reputation.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/world-most-admired-companies-2018

#154 paul on 03.06.18 at 11:42 am

#145 Ian on 03.06.18 at 11:15 am

I love these paid shills writing the TREB releases.

Where is “the market is correcting from an insanely bananas, massively overvalued, speculation heavy 21 year bull market”?
—————————————————————–
Please tell us who the shills are, and who is paying them. bs

#155 Justin S on 03.06.18 at 11:47 am

#150 A J

My point though is that there are different segments of the market – GTA vs. 416 (City of Toronto proper).

You can’t just use the drop in GTA prices and issue a blanket statement “Prices are down XX% in Toronto”. That’s just not true. They’re down in the far flung suburbs. They aren’t down in the City.

Are people really not understanding this?

“Prices for single detached family homes fell 17.2% in the GTA to just over $1 million – weighed down by an 18.6% decline to $1.28 million in the city of Toronto, and a 17.8% drop to $911,065 in the 905 region. ” (Financial Post). – Garth

#156 Tater on 03.06.18 at 11:51 am

#141 Justin S on 03.06.18 at 11:02 am
#139 Tater on 03.06.18 at 10:38 am

—————————————————————–
Year over year, the average semi in E01 has gone from 1.1mio to 960k.

As the noted street poet Sean Carter has said, “Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t”

Those aren’t the numbers I’m seeing, nor am I trying to lie when I state that I’m not seeing the softening of the market in my hood. Thanks for the insult though.

Toronto E01 – Townhouse: Jan 2017 $529,000 vs Jan 2018 $662,500 = $133,500 increase, or 25.24%

Toronto E01 – Single family attached: Jan 2017 $925,500 vs. Jan 2018 $960,500 = $35k increase or 3.78%

Toronto E02 – Townhouse: Jan 2017 $868,200 vs Jan 2018 $915,100 = $46,900 increase, or 5.40%

Toronto E02 – Single family attached: Jan 2017 $872,000 vs. Jan 2018 $946,000 = $74k increase or 8.49%

Sources:

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/home_price_index/pdf/TREB_MLS_HPI_Public_Tables_0118.pdf

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/home_price_index/pdf/TREB_MLS_HPI_Public_Tables_0117.pdf
—————————————————————–
You specifically said you can’t get a semi for less than a million. I show you the average semi sells for less than that, and quote the decline for Feb 18 over Feb 17.

The HPI numbers are meant to be smooth. Look at actual prices, for homes that sold. Prices are definitely softening.

#157 Howard on 03.06.18 at 12:12 pm

#105 VanMan on 03.06.18 at 3:11 am

The problem is failing to see Vancouver is now on par with world-class cities.

—————————–

Either you are trolling or you truly have never traveled to NYC, London, Paris, Berlin, Sydney, Tokyo, or even Toronto or Montreal.

I find Canadians and especially West Coasters to be very unworldly.

Vancouver is a place with a crappy economy, crappy job market, crappy wages, crappy nightlife, crappy restaurants (sushi is not the be-all and end-all of cuisine), crappy architecture, crappy beaches (for a coastal town), and based on my contact with some of them, pretty crappy passive-aggressive people.

#158 For those about to flop... on 03.06.18 at 12:13 pm

I see that b.c assessment has started chalking off sales from the recent sales history section from late 2015.

Won’t be long and all the Spring 2016 sales will be wiped from their history.

I’m not sure if anyone is going to be able to help me but my notes show 2831 Venables st , Vancouver,was purchased for 2.41 in late 2015.

My main point is they just took it off the market and put it back on for 2.39 but I don’t wat to represent it unless someone else can verify it.

Below is the original post from last November.

See what you can do…

M43BC

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

#31 For those about to flop… on 11.12.17 at 5:08 pm
Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver.

This one is in the same exact street that I showed a Pink Snow case in yesterday ,but these guys although they want more money have a much newer product to hock.

Purchased for 2.41 in late 2015 ,they have a little bit of wiggle room but this price could prove too rich for this neighborhood.

Only waited roughly 6 weeks to drop the price to try and freshen it up to try and make a sale before a bunch of listings are removed for the holiday season or become stale as Gregor Robertson’s hairstyle…

M43BC

2831 Venables st. Vancouver

Sept 26: 2.88

Nov 9: 2.69

Change : 190,000 7%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2831-venables-street

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMlNKMA==

#159 A J on 03.06.18 at 12:14 pm

#153 Justin S

Yes, I understand what you’re saying. I’m talking about the whole of the City of Toronto, not the GTA. The link I attached has all the average stats for the GTA & City of Toronto. All separated. If you look at the City of Toronto as a whole, prices are down….(look at the chart)….

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/03/06/1415568/0/en/TREB-Releases-Monthly-Market-Figures-Reported-by-GTA-Realtors.html

#160 young & foolish on 03.06.18 at 12:21 pm

The financialization of our economy is more about money, and less about creating products. Maybe it’s why raising interest rates is now so difficult. Rising rates will drop RE values, but they will also drop equities.

It’s hard to imagine rates going up much higher.

Rates rise when CBs determine economies are strong enough to absorb higher borrowing costs. Strong economies breed improving corporate profits, which feed equity values. Stick to whatever it is you do during the day. – Garth

#161 "World Class" on 03.06.18 at 12:23 pm

“Vancouver is now on par with world class cities.”
-Van Man

I’ve lived and travelled to a few real world class cities and Vancouver is only world class in the sense of scenery and nature, not culturally speaking. I mean comparing the VAG to the Tate Modern is futile. Incidentally I met a few older people in London who would like to retire in Vancouver, not because of being world class, which it is not, it is a tier or 2 below that, but because it’s relatively clean and has beautiful surroundings. Is it worth the high price tag? IMHO -Only in the nicer areas, once we see price drops in West Vancouver, which are happening now, will the bottom start to further crater.

#162 Dog in The Fight on 03.06.18 at 12:43 pm

Vancouver is without question the most beautiful city in the world -six months out of the year- the other 6 months I live in Palm springs. Win-win

Also, my neighbor works in an oil rich Arab country and his family lives in Vancouver in a beautiful home. He was home on the weekend and was very interested and agitated over the spec tax…gee I wonder why.

#163 SimplyPut7 on 03.06.18 at 12:45 pm

For those who want to point out that the average prices in Toronto have not gone down. Ross Kay explained this many times before, average prices hide the fact that people are buying better quality homes for the same amount of money their budgets will allow.

For example:

17 Wells Hill Avenue originally listed for $2.9 million

https://torontolife.com/real-estate/houses/toronto-house-for-sale-17-wells-hill-avenue/

https://www.blogto.com/city/2017/08/house-week-17-wells-hill-avenue-toronto/

Lots of advertising, listed for sale again.

What do they currently want?

$2.599 million
https://www.zolo.ca/toronto-real-estate/17-wells-hill-avenue

This is a prime location in Toronto, beautiful area with Casa Loma nearby, subway walking distance from house, driving takes less than 30 minutes to the financial district of Toronto. Do you think if someone can afford $2.599 million they are going to buy a smaller home when they can get this home for $300,000 less than what the sellers wanted 6 months ago? Don’t think so.

Average prices are hiding the fact that people are getting more value for their money.

#164 Ian on 03.06.18 at 12:47 pm

Still wondering why TREB was delayed a day…were they trying to reach Hudak to get a quote on the massive undersupply of housing stock that exists?

This year is going to be awesome. I’m sticking with my 54% price drop calculation in the GTA peak to trough.

If Jerome Powell really gets in gear the people predicting only one BoC increase this year are going to look mighty silly too!

#165 Stan Brooks on 03.06.18 at 12:51 pm

#158 young & foolish on 03.06.18 at 12:21 pm
The financialization of our economy is more about money, and less about creating products. Maybe it’s why raising interest rates is now so difficult. Rising rates will drop RE values, but they will also drop equities.

It’s hard to imagine rates going up much higher.

——————————-

It is very easy.

Interest rates for money are determined by market participants based on supply and demand and of course, risk.

Interest rates for coupons/i.e. claim on money/goods are determined by coupon issuers i.e. central banks.

Calling coupons with expiration dates money is mistake. It is not.

#166 Schleprock on 03.06.18 at 12:55 pm

My house in Eddy AB was valued @ $420 thous last year by the city. A realtor appraised it at $330 thou yesterday. City says its still worth over $410 thou this taxation yr. Still not sure if I will get a reduction in my taxes and any chance of that happening has a due date of March 12. Still haven’t had a reply to my inquiry and after the 9th any further request must be accompanied by a $50 non refundable deposit.

#167 curious? on 03.06.18 at 12:56 pm

I only had a cursory look at the numbers…
and yes, while we are looking at year over year drops,
for 905, at least, didn’t the Jan avg price=879,048 and Feb avg price = 911,065?

That doesn’t spell doom to me… can someone explain? i.e. the big drop already happened between Dec and Jan, so isn’t this just old news?

#168 Ogopogo on 03.06.18 at 12:56 pm

Meanwhile, in Kelowna our pathetic mayor worries that new legislation may actually accomplish its goal:

https://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-220355-1-.htm#220355

#169 robert james on 03.06.18 at 1:05 pm

#166 Ogopogo on 03.06.18 at 12:56 pm This mayor is a former Realtor… Need I say more..

He cared enough to stand for public office. And you? – Garth

#170 young & foolish on 03.06.18 at 1:15 pm

“Interest rates for money are determined by market participants based on supply and demand and of course, risk.
Interest rates for coupons/i.e. claim on money/goods are determined by coupon issuers i.e. central banks.”

Higher interest rates in a world shouldering high debt levels (government, corporate, and private) is likely to suck more money toward interest payments. And then would not investors move out of equities and toward higher yielding bonds? If I got this wrong (Garth says higher interest rates signal higher corporate profits), then please explain.

#171 fancy_pants on 03.06.18 at 1:16 pm

#31 Todd on 03.05.18 at 7:29 pm

yeah, here in KW, asking prices haven’t flinched. Development has slowed down a little from @3-5 years ago though, so a tighter supply. and demand for this region keeps growing. Waterloo is down to it’s last area of development (no more land) within city limits. Kitchener still has lots of room to grow south of Bleams.

RE prices here have risen more in the past 3 years than they did the 12 years prior.

In February detached home sales in KW fell 23%. Just wait. – Garth

#172 RBC says foreign money is a problem on 03.06.18 at 1:16 pm

Well Garth, this goes against everything you’ve said about
Foreign buyers… And it’s the big bank ceo saying it…

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/foreign-buyers-are-using-canadian-homes-as-piggy-banks-rbc-ceo-warns

The story says: “He identified a “cocktail of factors” that led to unconstrained growth of Toronto and Vancouver home prices, including a growing population, land constraints, lack of supply and highly stimulative interest rates that caused people to funnel more disposable income into their homes in addition foreign money.” Yawn. – Garth

#173 Dog in The Fight on 03.06.18 at 1:25 pm

So the guy that leads Canada’s largest mortgage lender and has access to data many of us can’t see, is saying foreign money is a problem in Canadian real estate, and supports the taxes introduced

“McKay, whose bank is Canada’s largest mortgage lender, says he’s supportive of government taxes and other measures targeting foreign buyers, as well as other regulatory efforts to cool the country’s housing market. He’s seeing some impacts from these rule changes, with “a little bit more healthy dynamics.”

Wow.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rbc-chief-issues-warning-to-foreign-investors-in-canadian-real-estate/article38218144/

Of course he supports policies designed to protect the mortgage portfolio. Duh. – Garth

#174 MediOgre on 03.06.18 at 1:25 pm

#40 the ryguy,

Enviable position, but you’re single. Good luck maintaining your financially superior lifestyle when you decide to share your life.

#175 Penny Henny on 03.06.18 at 1:31 pm

It will be very interesting to what March brings to the GTA housing market.
Looking back to last year’s results we can see sales of 12,077 (for the GTA)and a remarkable average price for detached in the 416 at $1,561,000.
I don’t think this year will be close in any regard.
So there will be nothing but bad news at least until the June numbers are released.

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/market_watch/2017/mw1703.pdf

#176 YVR Renter on 03.06.18 at 1:44 pm

The buyers’ deposit is really just a good faith thing. If there is a condition on financing and the buyer can’t get it, the condition cannot be waived, the deal cannot go through (collapses) and the deposit is returned to the buyer. Sucks for seller…as I said happened to us, too many more months to sell in Ontario when we were already on the coast, half our furniture here, half there to keep house looking good (it was a work-paid move and they covered everything till we sold). And we sold for $30,000 less… because the longer a property sits the less shiny it becomes. (Rural properties do take longer to sell). Brenda can pay a stager and rent furniture—so commonplace now. She’ll get 10’s of thousands more for her house. And yes she should discount it and get out now before the market really tanks. Seen it before.

#177 AJ Steeltown on 03.06.18 at 1:59 pm

Looks like a CEO is saying what all of us dogs have been saying all along. Foreigners using our homes as piggy banks. http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/foreign-buyers-are-using-canadian-homes-as-piggy-banks-rbc-ceo-warns

#178 Marina on 03.06.18 at 1:59 pm

But still real estate bum in Ottawa- Chinese are recently buying houses/condos in Ottawa, multiple offers, prices are going up.

#179 Stan Brooks on 03.06.18 at 2:12 pm

Of course he supports policies designed to protect the mortgage portfolio. Duh. – Garth

——————————

He is lying.

Trying to protect his behind, looking for scapegoats.

Let’s transfer all CMHC insured prudent loans underwritten by RBC back to the bank balance sheet shell we?

#180 Jethro Tull on 03.06.18 at 2:19 pm

Sitting on a park bench
Eyeing the little houses down below
On the edge of Mt. Vesuvius
The flowers bloom like
Madness in the spring

#181 chopstix on 03.06.18 at 2:20 pm

financial post: ”Foreign buyers using Canadian homes as piggy banks, RBC CEO warns
Foreign inflows are distorting Canada’s already constrained housing market and aren’t the kind of investment the country needs, RBC chief David McKay said”
http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/foreign-buyers-are-using-canadian-homes-as-piggy-banks-rbc-ceo-warns

#182 jess on 03.06.18 at 2:38 pm

the icelandic route vs latvia austerity

Once a Poster Child for Austerity, Latvia Becomes a Hotbed of Corruption

Austerity didn’t produce recovery in Latvia, it produced the semblance of recovery, says white-collar criminologist:

Bill Black. It also led to rampant criminal activity in the banking sector, such as money laundering, taking bribes, and violating sanctions against North Korea

…”One is that Latvian banks, not just one, but now it is alleged at least three, were critical to helping North Korea evade financial sanctions and this was critical to their ability to produce their great advances that they’ve shown in ballistic missiles designed to be able to deliver nuclear weapons at extremely long ranges, including all of the continental United States. So essentially, pretty much the world.

The second has to do with the head of the Latvian central bank, who is particularly identified with the austerity regime where he is alleged to have sought a €100,000 bribe, was arrested and is out on bail. The U.S. sanctions have produced a liquidity crises at some of these banks in Estonia, so they are seeking of course … I’m sorry, Latvia. Emergency financial aid from the central bank for the central banker has been arrested and the EU has said, “We’re not going to provide you with a liquidity bailout.” So Latvia may be back in the kind of banking crisis it was in, in 2008.

http://therealnews.com/t2/story:21180:Once-a-Poster-Child-for-Austerity%2C-Latvia-Becomes-a-Hotbed-of-Corruption

Jun 12, 2017 – As Canadian troops in Latvia unpack and get to know their new surroundings

#183 paulo on 03.06.18 at 2:48 pm

Derrick:

Classic example of The road to hell being paved with good intentions.
You had the correct plan ,bit weak on the execution: next time get a minimum 10% deposit,pref 15%
So re list the property at current actual street value and move it. thereafter retain counsel and nail the dirt bags that skipped. in the interim be there for mom with cheque book in hand.

#184 James on 03.06.18 at 3:02 pm

DELETED

#185 James on 03.06.18 at 3:05 pm

Its on!
The European Union plans to respond to President Donald Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs by slapping counter measures on quintessentially American products. The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, has compiled a list of goods on which to impose retaliatory tariffs, including American motorcycles and bourbon. The 25% tariff would be imposed on goods with a total value of $3.5 billion.
The planned moves come in response to Trump’s announcement that the US will impose a 25% tariff, or tax on imports, on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum. Soon after Trump’s decision Thursday, other nations, including the EU, Canada, and Mexico, promised to respond. The EU’s tariffs will target three main types of US products: consumer goods (jeans, shirts, cosmetics, boats, motorcycles), agricultural products (corn, bourbon, orange juice), and industrial products (steel).
The measures appear to have a veiled message aimed at congressional leaders like House Speaker Paul Ryan, whose district is home to Harley Davidson, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, whose home state of Kentucky is a major producer of bourbon.
He started it with his stupidity, Trump is dumb enough to not recognize what a scorched earth policy is. Trade wars-nobody wins ever.
These Republican leaders, particularly Ryan, are already attempting to convince Trump to reverse course on the tariffs. According to a GOP source, Congress may even take action to curtail the impact of Trump’s measures.

Following threats of retaliation from EU leaders, Trump said suggested on Twitter Saturday that counter measures to the counter measures could be on the way.

#186 jess on 03.06.18 at 3:06 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-latvia-banking-governor/latvian-central-banker-in-bribery-probe-returns-to-work-idUSKCN1GD5Y2

RIGA, Feb 22 (Reuters) – One of Latvia’s largest banks has asked for a 480 million euro loan from the country’s central bank as part of efforts to reopen for business after being forced to halt all payments in the face of money laundering accusations.

The request for credit from the Baltic state’s central bank comes amid frantic efforts by ABLV’s management to keep the bank afloat after U.S. authorities singled it out for money laundering and moved to block it from doing financial deals in dollars.

The ECB has imposed a moratorium stopping savers withdrawing their funds or making payments.

ABLV has denied any such wrongdoing.

An ABLV spokesman said more than 1,000 customers had pledged to keep 420 million euros ($515.93 million) in long term deposits at the bank. Most of its deposits are held by foreigners from countries including Russia and Ukraine. …

#187 jess on 03.06.18 at 3:22 pm

rbc warns but what about the underwriting/

RBS reaches $500 million settlement with New York over mortgage securities

Reuters Staff

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS.L) has reached a $500 million settlement with New York state to resolve claims over its sale of risky residential mortgage-backed securities that contributed to the 2008 global financial crisis.

#188 Boombust on 03.06.18 at 3:28 pm

#179 Chopstix

A bunch of BS; he’s just trying to freak locals into buying. Yes, he is well-aware the market is tanking and he’ll spin whatever nonsense it takes to “scare” up business.

#189 SimplyPut7 on 03.06.18 at 3:29 pm

I think the condo sales falling by 30% in the GTA is a bigger story than the detached house sales falling, as condos were thought to be the last glimmer of hope in the Toronto real estate market.

Not sure what the first time buyers will do when they realized they paid too much for a small concrete box that will cost more to maintain in the long run than a freehold townhouse.

#190 Buddy on 03.06.18 at 3:36 pm

#161 SimplyPut7
“This is a prime location in Toronto, beautiful area with Casa Loma nearby, subway walking distance from house, driving takes less than 30 minutes to the financial district of Toronto. Do you think if someone can afford $2.599 million they are going to buy a smaller home when they can get this home for $300,000 less than what the sellers wanted 6 months ago? Don’t think so.

Average prices are hiding the fact that people are getting more value for their money.” WRONG!

The list price of $2.599M has nothing to with affordability. The only question you ask yourself, is the property worth More than the current list price, in this case, NO! Who cares that the current list price is $300,000 less than 6 months ago. It’s a century house on a 40×90 foot lot. Century house’s are always problematic with continous repairs and a money pit of disaster.

17 Wells Hill is grossly overpriced and overvalued. The property’s assessed value for 2017 was $1.366M, enough said.

#191 Newcomer on 03.06.18 at 3:42 pm

I’m surprised to see how many blog dogs suddenly find the nice man at the bank a reliable source of RE information.

#192 IHCTD9 on 03.06.18 at 3:43 pm

Had a look at the local MLS – Hinterland Edition.

Lots of folks still out fishing.

By the look of the GTA market, they might be packing up the tackle soon.

‘Course, I don’t care either way…

#193 IHCTD9 on 03.06.18 at 3:59 pm

#18 What is that thing? on 03.05.18 at 6:49 pm

Hey, here’s a prediction you can count on; In 10 years time, Canadian RE, of all types, will be worth much more than it is today.
_______________________________________

I live in Canada. I own Canadian RE. The RE I own has increased in value ~228% since I’ve purchased it 17 years ago.

That appreciation will just cover the (real, honest) costs associated with the ownership, and maybe get me 1% on top.

I predict my financial assets will be worth 300-400% more than my magical Canadian RE by the time I retire.

#194 under the radar on 03.06.18 at 4:15 pm

Potential sellers- read

“Buyer agrees to forfeit the deposit in the event it does not complete the purchase on the date set for completion, through no fault of the seller, and hereby directs and irrevocably authorizes the listing broker to release the deposit to the seller as liquidated damages. ”
Every seller needs to include this clause in a market like this and further , buyer agrees that no extensions of the completion date shall be requested or granted.

#195 James on 03.06.18 at 4:19 pm

#182 James on 03.06.18 at 3:02 pm

DELETED
_____________________________________
You are correct that was not worth posting.
Please keep it in mind when the crazy rebuttals spew forth from that prognosticating agnostic abomination.

#196 AGuyInVancouver on 03.06.18 at 4:22 pm

Of course he supports policies designed to protect the mortgage portfolio. Duh. – Garth
_ _ _
More likely McKay and RBC have realized the people who need mortgages can no longer afford mortgageable property in the country’s two largest real estate markets. That leaves a lot of RBC “mortgage specialists” twiddling their thumbs.

#197 SimplyPut7 on 03.06.18 at 4:23 pm

#188 Buddy on 03.06.18 at 3:36 pm

Over the past 90 days, houses in the area have sold for over 2 million, that’s the sold data – not listed/asking price.

The assessment value is very low, maybe the run-up in prices in Toronto happened so quickly, that even people like me forgot what home prices used to be.

If a house like that falls to $1.3 million, then Toronto will be in serious trouble when the garbage that’s on the market falls back to their 2015 or earlier assessment values.

Glad I’m not a realtor, investor or flipper.

#198 James on 03.06.18 at 4:25 pm

Now this was comical.

It wouldn’t truly be the Oscars if President Donald Trump didn’t have something to tweet about it, but Jimmy Kimmel was ready with a snappy comeback.

“Lowest rated Oscars in HISTORY,” Trump wrote on Tuesday — which is true. This year’s Academy Awards telecast was the least-viewed in the show’s history, averaging 26.5 million viewers on ABC. “Problem is, we don’t have Stars anymore – except your President (just kidding, of course)!” Trump added.

Kimmel, who hosted the ceremony and continues to denounce the president on Jimmy Kimmel Live, responded: “Thanks, lowest rated President in HISTORY.”

Thanks, lowest rated President in HISTORY.
— Jimmy Kimmel (@jimmykimmel) March 6, 2018

#199 tccontrarian on 03.06.18 at 4:44 pm

#158 young & foolish on 03.06.18 at 12:21 pm

The financialization of our economy is more about money, and less about creating products. Maybe it’s why raising interest rates is now so difficult. Rising rates will drop RE values, but they will also drop equities.

It’s hard to imagine rates going up much higher.
—————————————————-
Rates rise when CBs determine economies are strong enough to absorb higher borrowing costs. Strong economies breed improving corporate profits, which feed equity values. Stick to whatever it is you do during the day. – Garth
———————————————————-
Young and foolish vs old and ______??

There’s a 3rd option: stagflation. In other words, rates can go up even when the economy isn’t doing well, as in the 70’s.

TCC

#200 maxx on 03.06.18 at 6:04 pm

#17 Decel on 03.05.18 at 6:48 pm

“What are your thoughts on Blackrock’s kahuna believing that Poloz will only trigger once this year?

What do you think will happen in 2019 to the economy/housing/stocks if he does only do it once this year while down south they go for a foursome? Assuming Trump doesn’t tweet anything else of course *cough*”

President Trump has Canada by the short and curlies…..there is hope for a mutually beneficial agreement, but the fantasy of David overpowering Goliath is just that – a fantasy.

Maybe the tab for decades of Canadian arrogance is about to be paid. With interest.

US raises rates = stronger US dollar.
CAD lowers or maintains rates = goods/commodities become more attractive by being priced in a lower buck = better value for US (temporarily), BUT, can create greater competition for like industries priced in US south of the border = pi$$ed off competitors = state intervention as this is perceived as the equivalent of a currency war.

Poloz’s currency “lever” is suddenly a very puny little appendage.

But wait! Other markets, such as China, India and the Philippines can be further developed…..

Oooops! We made the galactic mistake of shipping an obsequious sock model off to do a statesman’s job and before you can say TPP or NAFTA, his synapses went into smokey overload. He doled out Kumbaya and morality to future-critical business interests!!!

Canada will get what foreign powers decide it will get.

#201 Smoking Man on 03.06.18 at 6:07 pm

#193 James on 03.06.18 at 4:19 pm
#182 James on 03.06.18 at 3:02 pm

DELETED
_____________________________________
You are correct that was not worth posting.
Please keep it in mind when the crazy rebuttals spew forth from that prognosticating agnostic abomination.
……

Bahaha. My understanding of the English language is as good as any scollor . I Just have a bad set of shakey typing thumbs.

Have a wonderful afternoon.

#202 maxx on 03.06.18 at 7:14 pm

#46 Whatcha Minnie on 03.05.18 at 8:04 pm

Jayzus! You should have stuck to KD.

#203 maxx on 03.06.18 at 7:24 pm

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.18 at 9:58 pm

Some day, you might be accused of causing death by laughter.

Made my day. :-))

#204 Gravy Train on 03.06.18 at 10:03 pm

#199 Smoking Man on 03.06.18 at 6:07 pm
“My understanding of the English language is as good as any scollor [sic].”

The word is spelled scholar, you moron. Until you learn to spell properly, you should change your handle to Charlie Gordon. I’m sure that the reference is completely lost on you!

#205 M on 03.07.18 at 7:27 am

“Of course, Trump being Trump, this could all change by Wednesday morning.”

…well… Trump always does what he says he does. Or at least attempts to. He uses this for a top notch deal (for the US ) in NAFTA. Is not China that’s in the sights.
China was already hit with stiff tariffs in steel by Obama (for dumping). China is the 8th (or lower) producer that exports steel in the US.

Now to the more important things:

http://investmentwatchblog.com/foreign-investment-into-canada-has-collapsed-by-26-in-2017/

“Direct investment into Canada declined by a stunning 26% dropping to merely $33.8 billion during 2017, according to Statistics Canada. Capital inflows have declined for the second year with the major high in 2015 in accordance with our Economic Confidence Model. The investment that did take place was from reinvested earnings of existing operations. Net foreign purchases of Canadian businesses turned negative for the first time in a decade. This means that foreign companies sold more Canadian businesses than they bought. The political shift in Canada to the left is also being seen as a political risk for the years ahead. A monthly closing BELOW 7305 on the futures will signal the collapse of the C$ is underway once again.”

..and from the REAL economy in Toronto:
I have just replaced the manual transmission in my VW TDI 2006. 1200 bucks cash in one of the auto joints.
-> REAL economy is cheap in terms of labor.

Used cars dealerships are hugely expensive because they still run on credit. Same cars bought on cash from owners are 40 to 50% cheaper -> REAL economy
REAL economy is dirt cheap.

So..we have two economies: one run on debt is hugely expensive the other one that runs on real income is hugely cheap. How cheap ? 40 to 50%.

One of them has to give. Corollary: there is MASSIVE inflation. Where ? In EVERYTHING that is bought on debt. Stocks (margins), RE, new or old financed cars, etc.

It doesn’t take a genius to see where we’re going

#206 M on 03.07.18 at 7:38 am

..by the way.. the latest scandal from Brittan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isalsNYgTtU

..It’s here in Toronto too. ..and I bet in most big cities.
and yes..this qualifies as REAL economy. Oldest profession is the best litmus test for an economy.

food for thought

#207 bill on 03.08.18 at 12:55 pm

Nice looking dog Garth