Dog think

The Year of the Dog starts this week. You can imagine what that means to this blog, where canines are revered, like the cows of India, as symbols of goodness. Everything the comment section is not. Apparently not a single dog alive worried about the S&P last week, mocked another dog because his humans rent, or considered whether a vehicle was owned or leased before he threw up in it.

Dogs live for the moment, since tomorrow’s an abstract thought. They must trust others and constantly adapt. People suck at both trusting and adapting, believing they can (and must) control the future. That lands them in an emotional morass, as the market mayhem of the last few days has shown. So much angst over things nobody can control. So much wasted fear and pointless attempts to answer the question: ‘but what does it mean?’ A dog would never ask that. It means what it means, and there could be a liver treat involved. What else matters?

This dog-think suggests that maybe you should focus on those things that you can control. Like scratching or sniffing (or ‘working’, as we call it). If beagles had portfolios, in other words, they would be balanced and diversified – just set and forget.

As you may know, the Dow went up Friday and kept rising Monday by another 400 points. Bond yields that had swollen like an offended gland returned to a more-normal size. After shedding almost 10%, equities stabilized and buyers flooded in. It was the antithesis of what we’d heard last week from nutbars and doomers like Dennis Gartman and Jim Rogers. This is “the beginning of what could still be a substantive bear market in stocks,” said Twiddledum. “I fear this will be the worst bear in thirty years,” said Twiddledee.

But it wasn’t. And won’t be. The event may not be over, but there’s little doubt it’s a correction, not a crash – and sure as hell not a bear (a 20% dump lasting a few years). Markets don’t fall down just because they rise too far. They decline when prices grow too expensive and investors balk at paying them, or they reflect a deteriorating economic environment in which member companies see profits fade. Neither is happening.

The US and global economies are expanding as expected. Corporate profits are absolutely robust. American unemployment has turned into full employment. Trump and Rocket Man are making up. US tax cuts will feed business revenues. There’s a Tesla orbiting the sun. It’s all good.

Financial dudes who tell you they’re ‘adding alpha’ because they’re smarter than everyone else in the market are usually frauds. History shows Mr. Market cannot be timed. It also proves buying individual stocks is dangerous – there is a 70% chance of catastrophic loss. The best strategy is to (a) invest when you have the money and (b) spread it around.

Of course debt is everywhere. The Trump tax cuts will deliver a $1 trillion deficit in the States this year, and interest rates will bloat as a result. In many ways, society is just kicking the can down the road to be dealt with by a future generation. So long as economic growth is peachy, those debts can be serviced and everything carries on. When the next serious economic downturn takes place, we’ll have a problem. But it ain’t now. It might not be for decades. So no wonder a 71-year-old president really doesn’t care.

Meanwhile, how did the balanced & diversified beagle portfolio do in the over-hyped ‘carnage’ last week?

Just fine. On Friday, at the end of the worst week for stocks in years, it was down 1.8%, while the Dow had given up 9%. At the end of Monday, the damage was about 1%, and it likely won’t be long before the ink is green again. In other words, if you were happy with your investments at Christmas, you should be happy with them now. If we have another bout of this volatility and vapours, expect a similar experience. So why would you stress? Unless you’re not thinking like a pooch.

What a mistake that would be.

177 comments ↓

#1 Aaron Clarey on 02.12.18 at 6:25 pm

Great news! After 6 years of not having a girlfriend, I found the love of my life. She’s a born-and-raised independent woman from Toronto. She promises me that if I buy that semi located in Leslieville which costs $888,999, we can marry and start a family! Canada is a great country!

#2 Asadullah Malik on 02.12.18 at 6:25 pm

First one today?
I agree the US stock market is not doomed for ever.

#3 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.12.18 at 6:26 pm

“In many ways, society is just kicking the can down the road to be dealt with by a future generation.”

Thanks boomers.

What else is there to say today?

The eternal boomer strikes again.

#4 Maggie Bigelow on 02.12.18 at 6:27 pm

First! Great Article Garth!

#5 Dave on 02.12.18 at 6:33 pm

Bah, I’m 100 percent in equities because you will lose money with bonds. My conservative dividend paying portfolio is down 4%. Because I’ve been in equities, my returns over the last 7 years have averaged over 9 percent.

#6 common sense on 02.12.18 at 6:36 pm

Nice voice of reason article Mr. T.

Will be curious to see if the anticipated rate hikes (4 now in USA is it) now that Donald & Co. just passed a massive budget adding to an already bloated national debt.

Party on all!

#7 David Pylyp on 02.12.18 at 6:38 pm

The fear of new import duties suggest by Trump this week are enough to send our Canadian dollar lower.

#8 Ahmed on 02.12.18 at 6:40 pm

Garth. Do you know why real estate pumper would change his colors?? Has he been kicked out or is he on some different agenda? Same hypocrite was pumping RE when it actually was expansive than it actually is now?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/08/kevin-oleary-unless-you-can-pass-this-test-dont-buy-a-home.html?recirc=taboolainternal

Ahmed

#9 PastThePeak on 02.12.18 at 6:40 pm

“In many ways, society is just kicking the can down the road to be dealt with by a future generation.”

Thanks boomers.
===================================

That may be true in the ol’ US of A. But up here in the frozen north, the yugely increasing public debt is brought to you by the Liberal and NDP governments voted in by (mostly) the younger folk, and lefties of all generations.

#10 David on 02.12.18 at 6:42 pm

Garth: nothing but dog pics this year. No exceptions, please (like yesterday’s cake, unless it’s a cake in the shape of a dog or in the process of being eaten by a dog.

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.12.18 at 6:42 pm

@#3 SCM
“society is just kicking the can down the road to be dealt with by a future generation.”
++++++

Not to worry SCM.
I’m sure your generation will do the exact same thing.

#12 Juve101 on 02.12.18 at 6:42 pm

“Like scratching or sniffing (or ‘working’, as we call it)”

God I love this blog :)

#13 Lost....but not leased on 02.12.18 at 6:43 pm

#1 Aaron Clarey

Re Independent Women.

They don’t exist,
…. simply fictional entities created by the Joint Venture of CIA agents Gloria Steinem and Hugh Hefner.

#14 Cristian on 02.12.18 at 6:43 pm

“They decline when prices grow too expensive and investors balk at paying them, or they reflect a deteriorating economic environment in which member companies see profits fade. Neither is happening.”

You may want to read this:
https://www.thebalance.com/the-stock-market-and-the-economy-are-two-different-things-3141234

“…there is little relationship between the magnitude of GDP growth and stock market performance.

… As evidence, over the past 35 years, the S&P 500 posted gains in half of the 16 quarters that GDP was negative. Also, over the same time period, the S&P 500 posted gains in only about half of the quarters when annualized GDP was stronger than 6% and booming.”

#15 Goodman on 02.12.18 at 6:44 pm

Turner,
Your rhetoric about this stock market is NO different than the same rhetoric that was spewed in the real estate market for the last 10 years! Don’t worry, be happy and buy, buy, buy.

How can you be so reckless and continue to spew your rhetoric about this stock market?

Didn’t I just say not to flip stocks? – Garth

#16 Axehead on 02.12.18 at 6:46 pm

Yesterday’s blog – On Houses and Cars

I agree with renting houses but disagree with renting cars (AKA Lease). The best deal is to buy a 3-4 year old car outright for 1/2 price, pre-dinged, pre-scratched but in excellent shape. If you choose to buy new, then keep the vehicle for at least 10 years (forget domestic – low quality, European – quirky, Japanese – preferred, Korean – getting better).

For claiming via corporate expenses, it’s almost a wash between lease and purchase. If you drive excessive amounts, go purchase and claim mileage.

#17 A Yank in BC on 02.12.18 at 6:46 pm

The Beagle Portfolio. As far as I know that name isn’t taken. You should copyright it Garth.

#18 Stan Brooks on 02.12.18 at 6:46 pm

Loonie down amid market turmoil, but experts say not much further to fall

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/loonie-down-amid-market-turmoil-171029997.html

How about 65 USD then 35 Euro cents?

No serious investor will believe this idiocy or the liberal policies and lies.

People have money because they are smart. Stupid people have no money, they have debt.

————————–

BTW hiccups or not, the stock market is going much, much higher. At least the US one. 35-40 k in 3 years.

So is gold.

TSX will be flat, 1/3 of the gains in the US markets. Focus on mining/gold and some non-tar-sands-energy plays, the rest is pure crap, dog crap wrapped in cat crap.

It/the looooooooooonie is worth exactly 1/1.300.000 of a crappy shack in GTA/Vancouver which is well… close to nothing.

Pretty much piece of crap. Poloz’s peso, treat it as such.

#19 Wicked as it seems on 02.12.18 at 6:49 pm

I’m in a resort in Oaxaca for the winter. Today an American owned dog bit the Mexican gardener, the first time the dog has every bitten anyone, obviously the female owner is in shock over the event. I’m the go to financial guy around here, so I turned her on to your blog today, hoping she would get some solace from it.
It worked, you have a new blog dog and a pup that is so sorry about about it’s out of character action today!

#20 Long Branch Apprentice on 02.12.18 at 6:49 pm

My stocks are down a bit oh well! I’m in it for the long term.

#21 Hotdogs on 02.12.18 at 6:51 pm

Dogs are not symbols of goodness. They are ready made meals when the stock, bond, and housing markets collapse and people are roaming the streets in desperate herds in search of something edible.

#22 Yorkville Renter on 02.12.18 at 6:52 pm

I, like a dog, do not watch TV news… it’s much better for my constitution

#23 Stan Brooks on 02.12.18 at 6:54 pm

The orange hair guy will destroy the looooooooooonie.

‘Canada does not treat us right’ says Trump, as he threatens new global tax

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/apos-canada-does-not-treat-194608894.html

The nice hair guy? He will invent some new gender neutral word and that will be all.

Wondering on how long will we be able to continue to project that perfect image (of a social high standard country) to the rest of the world.

My bet is 2 more years/2020 and then it will be game over.

#24 M on 02.12.18 at 6:55 pm

“Dogs live for the moment, since tomorrow’s an abstract thought. They must trust others and constantly adapt. People suck at both trusting and adapting, believing they can (and must) control the future. That lands them in an emotional morass, as the market mayhem of the last few days has shown. So much angst over things nobody can control. So much wasted fear and pointless attempts to answer the question: ‘but what does it mean?’ A dog would never ask that. It means what it means, and there could be a liver treat involved. What else matters?”

Hallellujaaa Gartho baby, AMEN !!!!

Exactly the reason I’m contemplating ditching the babes and gettin’ a dog… symbolically at least :)
Living on my boat and with a very mobile work/fun life style it would be probably problematic.

Between “father knows best” and what we have now…looking at results…begs a smile :)

#25 Raptors on 02.12.18 at 6:55 pm

And yet here I am, still unable to afford anything in YVR

#26 Danny on 02.12.18 at 7:02 pm

Yes one of your best blog. ….well presented.

Reminds me of the good days when we had some sensible caring and mind engaging and unifying messages of long ago from the largest democratic country on earth.

See Garth some comments in the comment section are good…but never as good as most dogs quiet loyalty.

“So no wonder a 71-year-old president really doesn’t care.”

Yes Garth again I agree with you…..nothing yet is a sweat for “Don Donald “…..but maybe he hides it well with smoke and mirrors and threats of lawsuits and hush money deals.

#27 Hotdogs redux on 02.12.18 at 7:03 pm

#1 Aaron Clarey

Six years of self-flagellation have made you a fool. Dump the chick, forget the $888K semi-dump, and live as a freeman!

Reading your post reminded me why I wisely have little faith in men.

#28 M on 02.12.18 at 7:07 pm

..gettin’ to business, year is not over.
A double straddled strap on vol did work very well on a 25 to 1 its first half leg.
Volatility came back to stay. I doubt we’ll see 10 on vix any time soon.
Bond yields will continue to rise and all those morons that bought their own shares (kamasutra comes to mind) at a top of their own making will have to deleverage at some point.
The real fun will start in Q3. And then we can talk about a “diversified” portfolio. LOL
One thing we can be sure…in 3 years everything will be much much lower than now… or…
If QE comes in, we’ll get a potato for 2.50

Markets also go down when interest rates reach far enough to prevent those morons to borrow and buy on margin garbage at 48-50 P/E ratios (see HCG).

Markets are in a mania for the last 6-7 years.

#29 Long Branch Apprentice on 02.12.18 at 7:08 pm

DELETED

#30 Hotdogs redux on 02.12.18 at 7:10 pm

#1 Aaron Clarey

Yes, I strongly suspect you were being sarcastic but just in case you weren’t I had to slap you with my comment at #19. My apology if I erroneously slapped a fellow freeman.

#31 M on 02.12.18 at 7:12 pm

@#23
‘Canada does not treat us right’ says Trump, as he threatens new global tax

Tza Donald is the president of the US, not Canada. We have T2.
Put them side by side. Try not to laugh. ..and if you do… answer yourself (honestly),…WHY did you laugh (smirk/smile)

#32 mark on 02.12.18 at 7:16 pm

Screwed Canadian Millennial on 02.12.18 at 6:26 pm

Hey that’s why you are here to fund us and our house in retirement thanks!

#33 Nonplused on 02.12.18 at 7:19 pm

“Dogs live for the moment, since tomorrow’s an abstract thought.”

Then why do they bury bones? Why do squirrels, the favorite food of preppers, hide nuts? Why do bees make so much extra honey? Why do bears get so fat by fall? There are actually many examples in the animal kingdom of animals planning ahead when it is necessary for survival. It’s probably just instinct and not thoughtful. The worst advice Jesus gave was “Take therefore no thought for the morrow: for the morrow shall take thought for the things of itself. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.” But back then investing was a simpler business, buy a farm and work the land. They didn’t have ETF’s or crop insurance. Still would be a good idea to save enough of the crop to last through winter and leave seed for spring though.

Anyway thinking about time is interesting and a fun topic for movies, but for the most part it just proves certain weaknesses in human understanding and conjecture. Fo example the “Back to the Future” movies were a lot of fun, but Marty couldn’t have gone back in time and caused his parents not to get together and himself to not be born because then he wouldn’t have existed to go back in time and prevent his own existence. Someone else would have had to do it. But it ignores some other fundamental concepts that we ignore when having fun with time travel movies.

First off, the past, like the future, does not exist. Unlike the future, which will exist after what we call the present lo longer does, there is no past to go back to. It is gone. All we have left are the fossils and geological columns which give us a good idea, or at least some idea, of what the past was like. But the past isn’t there anymore. The idea that there is some version of earth 65 million years ago that you could go to and see dinosaurs that still exists is patently ridiculous unless the universe saves copies of itself in the way a video recorder saves 30 frames per second. It’s not like flying from San Francisco to New York, both of which exist in the present. There is no “place” left in the past to go, just recordings.

The other thing we don’t really pay attention to when a car travels in time 20 years is that the earth is nowhere near where it was 20 years ago so the car would actually appear in deep space. Unless you believe the earth is indeed stationary and the universe revolves around it.

Travelling to the future is more possible, we all do it every second. But until that second passes the future doesn’t exist either and when it arrives the last second doesn’t exist anymore. That’s how time works, it’s a one way arrow. In theory you could travel into the future by building a space ship that can go near the speed of light but it’s a one way trip.

But regardless we know the future is coming so it doesn’t hurt to plan. Plant your crops in the spring and plant enough to get through winter. Save some money. Invest. Yesterday will never come again but tomorrow certainly will.

#34 JY on 02.12.18 at 7:24 pm

Clever writing .
Thank you

#35 Keith on 02.12.18 at 7:30 pm

@#9 PastThePeak Get serious. In the past 106 years, the federal Conservatives have brought in two surplus budgets. Mulroney, at 80 billion in today’s money is the all time champion. Conservative by name, but not by fiscal nature.

#36 Stan Brooks on 02.12.18 at 7:31 pm

#25 Raptors on 02.12.18 at 6:55 pm
And yet here I am, still unable to afford anything in YVR

2 doctors no kids can not afford a house there.
Why should you?

There is premium to live in frozen/rain land.

Pay it or move out.

#37 Long Branch Apprentice on 02.12.18 at 7:34 pm

Garth, is there a way to prevent people from stealing screen names? It happened last night and again tonight.

To the fake Long Branch Apprentice, think up your own name please.

Would you like his IP so you can track him down for a wedgie? – Garth

#38 Reximus on 02.12.18 at 7:36 pm

So my next door neighbors (Toronto East) are selling (they are teachers moving to Ottawa) and I’m thinking why are they having an open house in the middle of winter… in a storm no less?

It was non-stop visitors and I was out shovelling and was asked a ton of questions by visitors and their brokers:

“Is this a good house?” Me: I think so

“Is this a good neighborhood?” me: I like it

“Would you buy here?” me: are you insane? I already live here, so obvs not

Buyers’ agent looking at me like she’s done her job: “thanks”

#39 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.12.18 at 7:38 pm

#9 PastThePeak on 02.12.18 at 6:40 pm
That may be true in the ol’ US of A. But up here in the frozen north, the yugely increasing public debt is brought to you by the Liberal and NDP governments voted in by (mostly) the younger folk, and lefties of all generations.

——————

Have to disagree there PastThepeak. T2 has only been in office for 2 years. You can pin $30B of the $700B on him if you want. Sorry to say it but more than half of Canada’s national debt was racked up under the 2 administrations that Garth was a part of (don’t kill me Garth). Brian “stuffed envelopes” Mulroney and the Evil Robot from Alberta. But let’s be real the big deficit busters in Canada right now are all the handouts for boomers, excessive healthcare, big pensions, Viagra prescriptions. Millennials are truly screwed.

In the US, it’s unreal right now. Trump thinks the US Treasury is one of his personal casinos. How did that end up? He did call himself the King of Debt. $1.2 trillion annual deficit and rising in good times. Not counting natural disasters, potential wars, and of course the next recession. I know Garth is a Conservative deep down at heart but I don’t know how he can ignore the sheer scale of these GOP-made deficits. Bond yields are rising and the US is in an insanely vulnerable position.

I’m with Ian on those David Stockman videos.

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.12.18 at 6:42 pm
Not to worry SCM.
I’m sure your generation will do the exact same thing.

———

Nah we’re not irresponsible and reckless like the generations that came before us.

#27 Hotdogs redux on 02.12.18 at 7:03 pm
Good advice.

#1 Aaron Clarey
I have a cot available if things don’t work out lol.

Well there goes my 2. Still awaiting word from the Politburo for a modest quota increase.

#40 Figmund Sreud on 02.12.18 at 7:38 pm

The [market] event may not be over, but there’s little doubt it’s a correction, not a crash – and sure as hell not a bear (a 20% dump lasting a few years).
____________________________

Hmm, … to see events clear in the market, that is genius.

F.S., Comox, BC.

#41 For those about to flop... on 02.12.18 at 7:42 pm

Recent Sale Report/Realtor Assistance Needed.

Another January sale just trickled in.

This relatively affordable option in Coquitlam quite possibly could be a good indicator of how the market mood has changed.

The last time this house hit the market it was listed for 999k and someone coughed up 1.23 in under 7 days.

This time the new owners had to pack some patience as it took 7 months to offload it onto someone else 23 days ago.

Did they exit the property in Drive with a smile,or in Reverse and knock over the neighbors mailbox…

M43BC

Sold on 19th January 2018

1508 Milford Avenue, Coquitlam paid 1.23

Jun 22:$1,399,000
Oct 26: $1,328,000
Change: – 71000.00 -5%

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/1508-milford-avenue

evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzWExYTQ==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#42 Hotdogs on 02.12.18 at 7:43 pm

Not sure if you want to own a dog?

Consider fostering a dog first! A doggie in real need will stay with you for a few weeks until a permanent owner is found.

Great way to understand what responsible dog ownership is really about. Make a new friend today : )

VISIT!!!!

https://www.caninehavenrescue.com/

#43 fake Long Branch Apprentice on 02.12.18 at 7:43 pm

Ha ha I have an IP scrambler! Or VPN! Anyway it says I appear to be in Markham right now! No wedgies for me!

#44 Ronaldo on 02.12.18 at 7:46 pm

Would you like his IP so you can track him down for a wedgie? – Garth
—————————————————————–
Needed a good laugh.

#45 Rexx Rock on 02.12.18 at 7:50 pm

If you lay with dogs,you’ll wake up with fleas.Meaning bad stocks,mining,oil ,teck etc.Anyway like Garth,I believe the plunger protection team will come to the rescue so there will be no 1987,2008 or 1929.The central banks have got our backs like they did in 2009.Sure we may have zirp and even nirp but we can live with that.Look at Japan,they have zirp for 20 years and ther’re doing fine.Its a new world,get used to it.The whole world will do what Japan has done and adapt accordingly.

#46 Mark on 02.12.18 at 7:52 pm

“To the fake Long Branch Apprentice, think up your own name please.”

I’d just add, there appears to be 2 “Mark”s these days, and even a ‘mark’.

I’m definitely not entitled to a monopoly on such a Biblical first name, but it may be a source of confusion to my fan base who knows me as a deflationist and the guy who correctly called the 2013 peak of Canadian RE coincident with the CMHC subprime credit cap instituted by the Minister of Finance.

#47 I’m stupid on 02.12.18 at 7:52 pm

Just fine. On Friday, at the end of the worst week for stocks in years, it was down 1.8%, while the Dow had given up 9%. At the end of Monday, the damage was about 1%, and it likely won’t be long before the ink is green again.
——

That all depends at what point you begin counting. I’m off 4% not including today from the highest my investment accounts reached until closing bell Friday. 60/40 balanced diversified portfolio. So I don’t know what point you’re counting from.

Not all 60/40 portfolios are the same, so I have no idea what assets you hold. Hug? – Garth

#48 Bob on 02.12.18 at 7:53 pm

“In many ways, society is just kicking the can down the road to be dealt with by a future generation.”

I’m pretty sure this has been going on since T1…

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/pierre-trudeaus-disastrous-record-is-finally-laid-out-for-all-to-see

#49 jim on 02.12.18 at 7:53 pm

“Markets don’t fall down just because they rise too far. They decline when prices grow too expensive and investors balk at paying them, or they reflect a deteriorating economic environment in which member companies see profits fade”

Umm, actually no.

You are stuck in the 1970s.

75%+ of all trades on markets are now done by software. Flash crashes and other market downturns can happen solely as a result of software on software interactions.

I realize that you aren’t an active trader, but you are really out of the game on market microstructure. I’d go read up on how many trading firms are relying heavily on software. I get an endless stream of solicitations from Chicago and NYC HFT firms.

I am well aware of HFT and its issues. But that’s micro, not macro. Flash crashes are not market makers, nor do they set the tone and sentiment that lead to long-term advances or declines. Experience will teach you this and, hopefully, respect. – Garth

#50 Hugh Janus on 02.12.18 at 7:54 pm

The more i get to know people, the more i like my dogs.

#51 Mark on 02.12.18 at 7:55 pm

“That may be true in the ol’ US of A. But up here in the frozen north, the yugely increasing public debt is brought to you by the Liberal and NDP governments voted in by (mostly) the younger folk, and lefties of all generations.”

The Harper government averaged deficits of what, in excess of $25B annually throughout his near decade in office. Including a deficit of around $20B in his final year in office.

The Trudeau administration, much to its credit, isn’t really doing any worse than the previous Harper government. Yes, there’s room for improvement, reducing waste, abuse, and mismanagement within the public sector, but predictions of fiscal management worse than that of the Conservatives are not rooted in the actual experience with the current government.

Even more amazing is perhaps that this has been accomplished with the Western Canadian economies in a near state of depression. Saskatchewan and Alberta have lost massive numbers of high-end jobs over the past few years.

#52 PastThePeak on 02.12.18 at 8:03 pm

#35 Keith on 02.12.18 at 7:30 pm
#39 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.12.18 at 7:38 pm

You guys/gals/neither need to work on your reading comprehension. My response was to SCM who was thanking the boomers for ‘kicking the can further down the road’. In other words now & near term, which gov’ts are in power now, looking at their deficits, and if they are talking about doing anything around the debt.

The fed Libs have been enthusiastic about their deficits (investments), and the Ont. Libs have never shown one care at all for the debt. Both are in power now, and were voted in by the younger crowd.

Perhaps if you read & thought more, and commented less, you would do better.

#53 Linda on 02.12.18 at 8:04 pm

‘kicking the can down the road for another generation to deal with’. I guess that depends on when that can comes to rest. If it is anytime in the next couple of decades, plenty of us should still be around to experience the results. After all, we are all of us supposed to plan to live to age 90 or even 95 when setting aside $ for retirement.

#54 Wallflower on 02.12.18 at 8:05 pm

Chienne-sitting this week.
Loving it.

#55 NoName on 02.12.18 at 8:20 pm

of topic but very interesting red.

http://www.argmin.net/2018/01/25/optics/

#56 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 02.12.18 at 8:21 pm

For those that are following technicals and market timing, tomorrow COULD be day #3 to confirm to purchase if it is up by 2pm (or end of day for true confirmation).

History shows Mr. Market CAN be timed. Proof is in any chart, any market, and asset.

Technical analysis is cute and addictive, but useful only when combined with fundamental and macro-economic analysis. And hormones. – Garth

#57 Long Branch Apprentice on 02.12.18 at 8:21 pm

Don’t give me any ideas Garth.

#58 I’m stupid on 02.12.18 at 8:30 pm

Not all 60/40 portfolios are the same, so I have no idea what assets you hold. Hug? – Garth

Im perfectly fine Garth. Your post should have said certain 60-40 portfolios preformed as you described. Your point is still valid that volatility was reduced with a 60-40 split but not all portfolios are the same depending on the mix of assets. Mine did not and I’m fine with that, 12% return 4% correction not bad.

#59 SoggyShorts on 02.12.18 at 8:35 pm

#3 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.12.18 at 6:26 pm
“In many ways, society is just kicking the can down the road to be dealt with by a future generation.”
Thanks boomers.
What else is there to say today?
The eternal boomer strikes again.

************************
Nice try SCM, but for a couple of years now there have been more Mills of voting age than Boomers, so from here on out it’s your fault.

Us Gen Xers are somehow forgotten in all this, but we won’t outnumber the Boomers until ~2028

M38AB

#60 Long-Time Lurker on 02.12.18 at 8:42 pm

#37 Sideshow Rob on 02.10.18 at 9:57 pm
Feast your eyes on this chart by the St Louis fed.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Set it to 1 year.
Virtually all inter-bank lending in the US stopped last week. This implies that someone big blew up and who it is has not been made public. Hang on to something solid. Stuff is about to get real.

>That might be because the other US banks were afraid of Wells Fargo going down. Wells Fargo got into a lot of trouble last year.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/69E205B0-0DE3-11E8-859F-B7B1CD107236

Opinion: Wells Fargo auditors could soon deliver another blow to the bank
By Jeff Johanns
Published: Feb 12, 2018 5:27 am ET

Wells Fargo investors have learned a lot about the bank’s worsening issues recently, but they should be watching carefully over the next couple of weeks for possibly more bad news — from the bank’s auditors, KPMG.

KPMG must opine on Wells Fargo’s WFC+0.66% internal controls by around March 1, and investors might not like the answer: the very real possibility of an adverse opinion from the auditors identifying material weaknesses in the bank’s controls….

#61 BlogDog123 on 02.12.18 at 8:43 pm

How about SCM gets only ONE post per day. He’s a Millennial and automatically computer-savvy. So he can simply post a link to his own blog where he can post 100 rants per day.

And SCM will be eating beans and catfood living in a mouldy rented basement while the older gen lives longer in paid-for detached houses and votes themselves more goodies and taxes for somebody else…

#62 mathman on 02.12.18 at 8:55 pm

re: the story of the almost 30 years olds with 300k invested.

Love the way you think – respect. Keeping up with the joneses and caring what others think is a loosing game, every time.

You mentioned the 100k from the home – makes sense. What about the other 200k.

Saving this kinda scratch is impressive before 30 after buying a place. How did you do it?

Math

#63 D C on 02.12.18 at 9:01 pm

Agree with the assessment: stay the course. After dumping my TFSA $$ in on Jan 1 and rebalancing back to ~70/30 I am -1.2%. Those lucky folks who didn’t have the lump sum at the beginning of the year win this year with some bargains now.
I am, however, glad to have converted kids’ RESP to ~20/80 (start a 6ish year draw down next year); it’s only -0.1%, but nice not to be worrying too much as the time to cash-in nears.

#64 cramar on 02.12.18 at 9:02 pm

If it were up to her, our beagle/hound rescue would invest in balls! Doesn’t matter what kind—tennis, hockey, rubber, foam. As long it is round, can fit in her mouth, and someone throws it for her, all is good!

Stocks way too abstract. Invest in balls! Beagle Portfolio = Balls!

#65 NoName on 02.12.18 at 9:11 pm

#49 jim on 02.12.18 at 7:53 pm
“Markets don’t fall down just because they rise too far. They decline when prices grow too expensive and investors balk at paying them, or they reflect a deteriorating economic environment in which member companies see profits fade”

Umm, actually no.

You are stuck in the 1970s.

75%+ of all trades on markets are now done by software. Flash crashes and other market downturns can happen solely as a result of software on software interactions.

I realize that you aren’t an active trader, but you are really out of the game on market microstructure. I’d go read up on how many trading firms are relying heavily on software. I get an endless stream of solicitations from Chicago and NYC HFT firms.

—-

Did you notice how spread between buy/sell shrank and liquidity increased when algos started trading, methinks that is good thing.

#66 Blessed_Canadian_Millennial on 02.12.18 at 9:14 pm

#39 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.12.18 at 7:38 pm
#9 PastThePeak on 02.12.18 at 6:40 pm
That may be true in the ol’ US of A. But up here in the frozen north, the yugely increasing public debt is brought to you by the Liberal and NDP governments voted in by (mostly) the younger folk, and lefties of all generations.

——————

Have to disagree there PastThepeak. T2 has only been in office for 2 years. You can pin $30B of the $700B on him if you want. Sorry to say it but more than half of Canada’s national debt was racked up under the 2 administrations that Garth was a part of (don’t kill me Garth). Brian “stuffed envelopes” Mulroney and the Evil Robot from Alberta. But let’s be real the big deficit busters in Canada right now are all the handouts for boomers, excessive healthcare, big pensions, Viagra prescriptions. Millennials are truly screwed.

——-

Wow… so much ignorance! I just had to write this.

As much as you hate the “evil robot,” Harper was one of the BEST PM’s ever. Now, the media didn’t do him any favours nor did his charisma but who cares?

Regarding the debt that Harper got us in, you fail to remember that he was FORCED into it. Look it up, smartypants. And compare the deficit that Harper racked up with what Obama did. Context matters, kid.

Mulroney was just cleaning up after Trudeau senior’s mess.

Lastly: just look at Ontario. So. Much. Debt. Liberal party running (ruining?) the province for 14+ years.

You, my friend, are royally messed. In the head, that is.

#67 I’m stupid on 02.12.18 at 9:21 pm

I understand why you edited my comment. I read this blog because it’s an unbiased view of things. You call a spade a spade, I don’t want that to change. I feel like this evenings post wasn’t an honest representation of the spectrum of possible scenarios, it was only a representation of the best case scenario.

The post represented my view of reality. You are welcome to share it. – Garth

#68 SoggyShorts on 02.12.18 at 9:27 pm

#62 mathman on 02.12.18 at 8:55 pm
re: the story of the almost 30 years olds with 300k invested.
You mentioned the 100k from the home – makes sense. What about the other 200k.
Saving this kinda scratch is impressive before 30 after buying a place. How did you do it?

**********************
200K/2 people
=100K
100K/10 years
=10K

My guess is by saving ~1K per month each, much less if each addition was invested well over the course of those (10?) working years

Still, it is impressive, I didn’t save jack until around 10 years ago at 28. Not because I couldn’t, I was just busy travelling and partying, not thinking about the future much.
Math

#69 Keith on 02.12.18 at 9:31 pm

@#52 PastThePeak The disgustingly awful track record of the federal Tories I referred to is reality. The federal Liberals have beat their deficit targets so far, and are running much smaller deficits than the average federal Tory. The federal Liberals smoke the Tories for fiscal performance over time, even with Trudeau senior’s deficit spending.

Conservatives in Canada never do the hard work of right wing economics, which is that if you cut taxes you have to shrink the size of government. They don’t have the jam to do so, which is why they almost never balance the books. The Liberals made the government much smaller in the nineties, and Harper went on a hiring and spending spree. Add in the tax cuts, and it was game over.

Caroline Mulroney, the new Ontario Tory candidate has offered up a cancellation of the carbon tax, at a revenue cost to the Ontario taxpayer of $4 billion. She has offered up the tired strategy of “more efficient” spending of taxpayer dollars, a much cited never realized myth that right wing governments can painlessly save billions of dollars. Enjoy the savage cuts to your social programs if you elect a Conservative government, not that it will be part of their platform, and tax cuts for the wealthy financed by deficit spending.

#70 IHCTD9 on 02.12.18 at 9:38 pm

#51 Mark on 02.12.18 at 7:55 pm
“That may be true in the ol’ US of A. But up here in the frozen north, the yugely increasing public debt is brought to you by the Liberal and NDP governments voted in by (mostly) the younger folk, and lefties of all generations.”

The Harper government averaged deficits of what, in excess of $25B annually throughout his near decade in office. Including a deficit of around $20B in his final year in office.

The Trudeau administration, much to its credit, isn’t really doing any worse than the previous Harper government. Yes, there’s room for improvement, reducing waste, abuse, and mismanagement within the public sector, but predictions of fiscal management worse than that of the Conservatives are not rooted in the actual experience with the current government.

Even more amazing is perhaps that this has been accomplished with the Western Canadian economies in a near state of depression. Saskatchewan and Alberta have lost massive numbers of high-end jobs over the past few years
—————-

Harper had the deficit down to 941 million in 2015, after having dealt with the biggest financial meltdown in the history of the universe.

Trudeau, a chip off the old block; ballooned it up to 20 Billion in less than a year of starting office.

I know, I know, you don’t like those particular facts do you?

Sorry about your luck Mark, right from Trudeau bootlicker central:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ottawa-posts-941m-deficit-for-october-1.3376881

#71 Dobermanduke on 02.12.18 at 9:41 pm

#39 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.12.18 at 7:38 pm

Nah we’re not irresponsible and reckless like the generations that came before us.

———————————————-

Because you don’t take responsibility

#72 Buying vs. Leasing a Car on 02.12.18 at 9:41 pm

From yesterday’s post #144 Pre-retiree on 02.12.18 at 12:30 pm
To: #46 Buying vs. Leasing a Car on 02.11.18 at 7:41 pm

I am in total agreement with you. Just did the same. Love my “cheap” used luxury SUV. Top of the line at rock bottom price. […]
*****************

Indeed it is a smart choice if one needs to own a car.

This approach to owning quality vehicles on the cheap can be especially rewarding when you are not afraid to go get your wheels in the US (but it works in Canada as well).

Even with CAD where it is, US has a much larger used car market and often when a specific model becomes replaced with a new one / or just a face-lift, the drop in value of the previous model / pre-facelift version is dramatic, without any of the car’s functionality being eroded.

Another advice is to look for models which have had long production runs before being replaced by a new model. Obviously, the old model was a well designed car to begin with as customers kept on buying it. In the meantime, all possible imperfections had been ironed out by the manufacturer.

The import from the US of major brands is effortless and in most cases costs just a few hundred dollars in paperwork with no modifications needed. And overall lower US vehicle prices more than compensate for the week CAD.

Some of my favourite examples of moderately used quality luxury SUVs sold for peanuts compared to new car sticker prices and with many years of life ahead of them: Acura MDX, Lexus RX350, Mercedes M-Class, Infinity FX, Volvo XC60/90. 4-5 yrs old cars from this group with moderate mileage should cover the majority of car lifestyle needs/choices. There are obviously many more quality options.

And think about it: owning a quality used car is the ultimate recycling choice so you can feel very green about it in addition to generating tons of additional saving power to regularly throw additional funds into your balanced portfolio.

When you run the numbers over a 40 year period (considering somebody who is just entering the workforce), the wealth creation difference at the age 65 runs into above mid six figures assuming the owning-quality-used-vs.-leasing-new total difference of just CAD300/month (in my case it is actually higher, but just to be conservative). In the case of a couple needing two cars, you are entering the realm of low seven figures. A lot of my family members/friends do not believe me until I show them the spreadsheet.

#73 TheSecretCode on 02.12.18 at 9:45 pm

No downturn for another decade? Yeah okay. I guess business cycles don’t happen anymore. This is like a Yellen forecast of the next recession not being until 2027.

And this isn’t the big crash…it is the noise before the storm…the storm that will probably be making landfall before the year 2027…or 2029.

If the next downturn is not until 2027, you might as well load up on debt or be left behind for an entire generation.

On that note…banks in BC are going full lax in the lending department. Millenials who make 150k can qualify for a 800k+ loan at a credit union in Vancouver with less than 20% down.

And early Feb. sentiment in BC RE outside of Vancouver seems to be making a splash in the first couple of weeks in Feb. with multiple offers coming in on decent homes 750k+ in Kelowna…stress test? What stress test?

We will be having the conversation in the fall about the need to regulate provincial banking and tighten..blah, blah…, just like when everyone dodged the less than 20% down by getting mom and dad to hand over equity…now everyone in BC flooding credit unions to side step the lending rules as expected with the BS rule changes full of holes big enough to drive a truck through them.

I think the BoC is seeing unrelenting leveraging by Canadians (a push to who can secure debt rather than being cautious about it)…and the only thing that will truly slow any of this BS down is higher interest rates.

I guess we will see if more rate hikes happen…current economic conditions in the US warrant 7% interest rates…and around 5.5% in Canada…pretty much in line with the stress test that so far is not showing to be much of a barrier.

#74 mathman on 02.12.18 at 9:49 pm

re:68 Soggy Shorts

Thank you for the lesson. She said they were both almost 30. Doubt they were saving at 20, probably didn’t get a solid job till 24ish.

i only ask because I didn’t have a pot to you know what in till I was in my late 20’s. Most folks in their earlier 20’s are also not making major bank. if you are you probably had to get through an expensive education.

Not saying it can’t be done, would just love the unvarnished truth on how they did it. My guess is parents paid for school, they lived at home till right before they bought the house and banked the downpayment.

Markets have been great so if they were in a balanced portfolio i can see the growth aspect. Just curious – an analytical mind.

Math

#75 akashic record on 02.12.18 at 9:54 pm

Garth is channeling Aesop tonight with the predictable fable of the dog and the balanced portfolio.

Dogs are amazing pets, indeed.
As long as you feed them, provide for their welfare.

But let’s put some spin on the story and let’s see where does it take us.

I suppose, apparently not too many person alive would worry about the S&P, housing, cars if it was provided for them, at the same level as it is for Bandit in Garth’s house.

People would live for the moment, since tomorrow’s an abstract thought when someone provides for you, just like when you were a child. You trusted others and constantly adapted.

But few people can live like Bandit.

Those people eventually have to start to provide for themselves and their kids, they can no longer just rely on trusting, they have to start believing that they themselves can (and must) control their own future, because nobody else will.

Unless they live on welfare. Like pet dogs do.

That, indeed, lands people in an emotional morass, as the market mayhem of the last few days has shown.
So much angst over things nobody can control.
So much wasted fear and pointless attempts to answer the question: ‘but what does it mean?’

A dog would never ask that. It means what it means – as long as the food arrives in time and it could be a liver treat involved. What else matters?

But stop handing out food and water and watch how long can you kick the can down the road before the lovely, obedient pet turns into a different kind of animal.

Kind of like people, who rely on themselves.
They must to find out what is really out of their control, and are those supposedly “uncontrollable” things actually controlled – by other people, who don’t want to share or give up control?

Kind of like the wolfs of Wall Street vs dogs of main street.

Will it be the year of the dog or the year of the wolf?

It will be the year of the wolf, of course.

At least until we can become pets of robots, who can blog for each other about the big questions of existence.

They would say their people pet never embarks pointless attempts to answer the question: ‘but what does it mean?’ A human would never ask that. It means what it means, and there could be a soy-lent treat involved. What else matters?

#76 Risktopia on 02.12.18 at 9:54 pm

While we humans bicker over tax reform and political correctness the robots are learning how to open doors.

http://www.risktopia.com/2018/02/door-handles-were-humanitys-last-line.html

#77 Mark on 02.12.18 at 9:55 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svsyjIie2Gc

New Ross Kay interview.

He references talking with Garth a few years back at around 16:00.

#78 TheSecretCode on 02.12.18 at 9:56 pm

Volcker 1979 – 1987: Ave. Rate – 10.55%

Greenspan 1987 – 2006: Ave. Rate – 4.8%

Bernake 2006 – 2014: Ave. Rate – 1.5%

Yellen 2014 – 2018: Ave. Rate – 0.5%

Powell 2018 – ???: Ave. Rate – ???

Do we buck the 40-year trend starting now or kick the can a few more decades?

#79 greyhound on 02.12.18 at 9:57 pm

Greater Fool is calling Jim Rogers a “nutbar?” Dennis Gartman maybe I understand, but Rogers?

#80 Mark on 02.12.18 at 9:58 pm

“She has offered up the tired strategy of “more efficient” spending of taxpayer dollars, a much cited never realized myth that right wing governments can painlessly save billions of dollars. Enjoy the savage cuts to your social programs if you elect a Conservative government”

Simply approaching public sector compensation in a rational, market based way could save the Ontario government billions.

Its not too hard to look at the sunshine lists and see occupations that could easily be staffed for half the price, and still have lineups of qualified individuals applying.

Why politicians can’t seem to get their heads around the fact that the cost of government can be cut without actually cutting services is unknown to me. It seems so comparatively easy to simply say to public servants, especially those at the top of the compensation lists, that their compensation is out of whack with reality and will be cut back immediately.

Yes, some will whine and complain, but those in the public sector who aren’t there for at least partially altruistic reasons really have no business serving the public.

#81 I’m stupid on 02.12.18 at 10:00 pm

The post represented my view of reality. You are welcome to share it. – Garth

Giving specific gain/losses on 60/40 portfolios was a mistake. The actual assets held of every portfolio with a 60/40 mix is different so stating a gain loss like you did was not correct. In your specific 60/40 mix the volatility and rate of return was as you stated but that isn’t the reality for everyone with a 60/40 split. Admitting that there are varying degrees of returns and volatility within a balanced portfolio doesn’t mitigate your point.

#82 CONservatives are elite scum on 02.12.18 at 10:05 pm

CONservatives give give give to the wealthy corporations and cut cut cut social benefits. CONservatives is Robinhood for the rich. They steal from the poor to give to the rich.

#83 For those about to flop... on 02.12.18 at 10:05 pm

January 2018 Sales Report/Realtor Assistance Needed.

Well with the house at Milford selling, it continued the trend of not much selling in my folder over the 1.75 mark during the month of January.

I will put it up again in the hopes that a realtor has settled in for the night with a nice glass of Chardonnay and is feeling charitable this Family Day and will fill in the blanks…

M43BC

Pandora paid 1.29

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2712-pandora-street

1st Ave Paid 1.41 condo

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/88-w-1st-avenue/1101

Milford Paid 1.23

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/1508-milford-avenue

Sophia Paid 1.47

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/5748-sophia-street

Farmer Paid 1.21 Sold 1.21

https://www.zolo.ca/abbotsford-real-estate/34288-farmer-road

Jaskow Paid 1.9 Sold 1.58

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/5691-jaskow-drive

Woodhead Paid 1.31

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/4231-woodhead-road

79thave, Paid 845k

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/11288-79-avenue

Chamberlayne Paid 1.02 Sold 1.08

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/5295-chamberlayne-avenue

Coventry Paid 2.83

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/4260-coventry-drive

Sunland Paid 1.3

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/4582-sunland-place

Pintail Paid 1.62.not sure if sold yet as not cleared.

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/11580-pintail-drive

72nd ave,Paid 560this cheaper option in Surrey actually sold in late December but I will put it up in the hope it helps someone.

Was in Possible Pinkies Folder but most likely made money.

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/14948-72-avenue

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#84 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.12.18 at 10:10 pm

Long Branch Apprentice said:

“Garth, is there a way to prevent people from stealing screen names? It happened last night and again tonight.”

Garth’s making-me-spit-beer-on-my-screen reply wuz:

Would you like his IP so you can track him down for a wedgie? – Garth

BTW, what ever happened to Freedom First and all of his fans?

#85 IHCTD9 on 02.12.18 at 10:16 pm

#69 Keith on 02.12.18 at 9:31 pm
@#52 PastThePeak The disgustingly awful track record of the federal Tories I referred to is reality. The federal Liberals have beat their deficit targets so far, and are running much smaller deficits than the average federal Tory. The federal Liberals smoke the Tories for fiscal performance over time, even with Trudeau senior’s deficit spending.

Conservatives in Canada never do the hard work of right wing economics, which is that if you cut taxes you have to shrink the size of government. They don’t have the jam to do so, which is why they almost never balance the books. The Liberals made the government much smaller in the nineties, and Harper went on a hiring and spending spree. Add in the tax cuts, and it was game over.

Caroline Mulroney, the new Ontario Tory candidate has offered up a cancellation of the carbon tax, at a revenue cost to the Ontario taxpayer of $4 billion. She has offered up the tired strategy of “more efficient” spending of taxpayer dollars, a much cited never realized myth that right wing governments can painlessly save billions of dollars. Enjoy the savage cuts to your social programs if you elect a Conservative government, not that it will be part of their platform, and tax cuts for the wealthy financed by deficit spending.

————

Once Harper got a majority, the deficits tumbled, finishing at under a billion (less than Ontario pays just in INTEREST ALONE on their Liberal debts – every single year…)

What the Liberals did in the 90’s means jack. Trudeau has been a horror show of revenue murdering policy and money turned to ash – no one with a brain is going to deny it. He’s King Midas in reverse. Canada has never seen such a cement headed dunce cap wearing goof at the helm in all its history.

Ontario is over 300 Billion in debt run by what appears to be a Zombie. Good paying private sector jobs made a beeline for the US throughout the entirety of the Liberals’ torturous tenure. Hydro costs highest in the world, stagnant wages for over a decade, all heavy industry projects and resource extraction ground to a halt years and years ago.

Wynne has the iq of a concrete pavestone when it comes to the economy. She’s now racking up debt in order to offer a “discount” on hydro. That’s like me taking out a loan from the bank at 5% to give myself a raise. Debt service costs are nearly tied with education for the #2 line item on the budget. She’s selling off giant chunks of multi billion dollar public infrastructure (paid for by our taxes) to the private sector trying to come up with a balanced budget. Wynne and Trudeau both want to partner with the private sector to produce “pay for use” tolled public infrastructure projects. Trudeau is already setting up an infrastructure bank in China trying to lure State PRC corps into owning Canadian bridges, highways, and buildings – for profit.

They’re all BROKE, that is the Liberal legacy in Canada. Enjoy your US style toll roads and 70% total tax burden because it’s coming 100% guaranteed.

#86 IHCTD9 on 02.12.18 at 10:18 pm

Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.12.18 at 10:10 pm
Long Branch Apprentice said:

“Garth, is there a way to prevent people from stealing screen names? It happened last night and again tonight.”

Garth’s making-me-spit-beer-on-my-screen reply wuz:

Would you like his IP so you can track him down for a wedgie? – Garth

BTW, what ever happened to Freedom First and all of his fans?
———-

I’ve been wondering where ‘ol FF has been as well. WUL too. Miss their posts.

#87 Leo Trollstoy on 02.12.18 at 10:25 pm

Nobody cares if Ontario and Canada are in debt

The next generation will fix it

#88 Leo Trollstoy on 02.12.18 at 10:27 pm

I like how the tribes of libs and cons bicker

The rich know that both parties support them

The poor think one is better than the other

The poor are funny suckers

#89 IHCTD9 on 02.12.18 at 10:29 pm

#76 CONservatives are elite scum on 02.12.18 at 10:05 pm
CONservatives give give give to the wealthy corporations and cut cut cut social benefits. CONservatives is Robinhood for the rich. They steal from the poor to give to the rich
—————-

Not at all like the Libs who want to take your tax dollars and give them to a Chinese construction company to build an extension on the 401. Then letting said PRC State owned construction company charge Canadians tolls on said extension. Then tax you on top of that. Then take your drivers license away if you don’t pay up.

I’ll take Robin Hood over Jack the Ripper any day.

#90 OttawaGuyRenting on 02.12.18 at 10:32 pm

Re: 60/40 split

Take her out for a spin. Get a feel for that split.

Allow IT to do all the “work”

Talk dirty to 60/40

Leave the $ on the side table

But always remember

YMMV
Your mileage may vary

#91 NotLegalAdvice on 02.12.18 at 10:39 pm

Kevin O’Leary recently posted about 2 questions you should be able to answer before buying a home. 1) are you married? 2) do you have kids?

If you answered No to either of the above, he does not suggest buying a home, but simply renting it.

https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/02/08/kevin-oleary-unless-you-can-pass-this-test-dont-buy-a-home.html

Garth seems to have a similar mindset, but irregardless of the marriage or children part. Even if you have children, you may be better off renting.

I strongly believe if you’re paying more than 1/3rd your salary after taxes toward your mortgage, you bought a property that you couldn’t afford.

It’s time to be smart with your money, I know too many fools investing in a single stock (i.e, weed, aph, acb to name a few). Or a bunch of even greater fools investing in crypto (trx still sitting under 5 cents at the time of this post).

Diversify. Balance. That’s the key!

#92 Humdinger on 02.12.18 at 10:41 pm

Unknown source:

The ANT AND THE GRASSHOPPER
This one is a little different.
Two Different Versions.
Two Different Morals.

OLD VERSION:
The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house, and laying up supplies for the winter.
The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away.
Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed. The grasshopper has no food or shelter, so he dies out in the cold.
MORAL OF THE OLD STORY:
Be responsible for yourself!

MODERN VERSION:
The ant works hard in the withering heat and the rain all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter.
The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away.
Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed while he is cold and starving.
CBC, CTV, Global and City TV show up to provide pictures of the shivering grasshopper next to a video of the ant in his comfortable home with a table filled with food. Canada is stunned by the sharp contrast.
How can this be, that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so?
Kermit the Frog appears on CBC News with Peter Mansbridge along with the grasshopper and everybody cries when they sing, ‘It’s Not Easy Being Green.’
People Against Poverty stages a demonstration in front of the ant’s house where the news stations film the group singing, ‘We Shall Overcome.’
Then, Justin Trudeau has to apologizes to the grasshoppers for all the mistreatment they’ve received.
Kathleen Wynne condemns the ant and blames Prime Minister Harper, former Premier Mike Harris, Bill Davis, and Joe Clarke for the Grasshoppers’ plight.

Justin Trudeau and Bill Morneau explain in an interview with Wendy Mesley that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper and both call for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his fair share.
Finally, the Provincial Liberal/NDP coalition drafts the Economic Equity and Anti-Rich Ant Act retro-active to the beginning of the summer.
The ant is fined for failing to hire a proportionate number of green bugs and having nothing left to pay his retro-active taxes; his home is confiscated by the Ontario Government’s Green Czar, Dalton McGuinty and given to the grasshopper.
The story ends as we see the grasshopper and his free-loading friends finishing up the last bits of the ant’s food while the government house he is in, which as you recall, just happens to be the ant’s old house. The house crumbles around them because the grasshopper doesn’t maintain It.
The ant has disappeared in the snow never to be seen again.
The grasshopper is found dead in a drug related incident and the abandoned house is taken over by a gang of spiders who terrorise and ramshackle the once prosperous and peaceful neighbourhood.
The entire Nation collapses bringing the rest of the free world with it.

MORAL OF THE STORY:
Be careful how you vote in the next election.

#93 MichaelJ on 02.12.18 at 10:52 pm

“When the next serious economic downturn takes place, we’ll have a problem. But it ain’t now. It might not be for decades.”
I agree that nobody knows what’s going to happen next week or next year. This bubble of all bubbles could go on. But come on, decades? Seriously? What, central bankers have figured out how to eliminate the business cycle now and we will all die happy before the next recession hits? You must be kidding right? Decades? :)

#94 morrey on 02.12.18 at 10:57 pm

bite bite
“Bitcoin is just not fast and efficient enough to be used as a currency. Also, Bitcoins do not exhibit beauty, or tell stories, or have any of the other aspects that give intangible objects value.”

#95 morrey on 02.12.18 at 10:59 pm

“In case you you weren’t sure whether Vancouver’s real estate market is out of whack….Burnaby highrise condos starting at $1200 a foot.”
oh dear!

#96 Fun facts on 02.12.18 at 11:05 pm

Everyone should be aware that the equity market can produce crappy returns for periods exceeding a decade. You have to be prepared for this to be a long term investor. It’s been a cake walk since mid-2009. I suspect the next decade is going to be much more volatile.
Fun fact: 1970 – 1979 the S&P500 CAGR when adjusted for inflation was negative. So was 2000-2009. I’m just saying, know your market history. Also, not coincidentally since starting P/E was low, and interest rates high trending downward (which nobody knew would happen, because time arrow), the 1980-1989 and 1990-1999 periods produced massive returns. You want to invest in equities when Business Week runs this cover:
http://www.businessinsider.com/death-of-equities-revisited-2012-8

Diversify and stay the course because that’s all you can do, but understand there will be bumps along the way. Your faith will be tested.

#97 fritsdacatz on 02.12.18 at 11:25 pm

You keep your dogs, my kitty says this is a dead-cat bounce!

#98 fritsdacatz on 02.12.18 at 11:30 pm

#46 Mark on 02.12.18 at 7:52 pm

“To the fake Long Branch Apprentice, think up your own name please.”

I’d just add, there appears to be 2 “Mark”s these days, and even a ‘mark’. ”

Speaking of Marks, cue the great Grouch who said, “i wouldnt be a member of any club who would have me as a member”

#99 Terry on 02.12.18 at 11:41 pm

Turn off the HFT computers and liquidity dries up ……. prices fall. Turn on the HFT computers and the liquidity comes back prices rise. Just go to New York where the HFT microwave signal towers are and bring your scanning meters to see if they are transmitting or not. There is no law that says these HFT bandits have to be market participants every trading day of the week! Easy money!

#100 Walt on 02.13.18 at 12:02 am

Thanks Garth for providing me and my oldest son with loads of entertainment. Heck I don’t do anything you say but we do have one thing in common, dogs!

#101 Smoking Man on 02.13.18 at 12:30 am

Jordan Paterson the biggest threat to globalist progressives. Guess what. He’s a Smoking Man fan from way back when i brought to light the the crap that was going down in the educational industrial complex. Guess what. Doug Ford is a fan too. Follows me on Twitter. What’s he do today.

Pledges to reform the school system. Get rid of social justis and put an end to aliens from planet Lesbetron quest to demasculate young boys and bring in math again…

The little pathetic blog that Garth who is a man with real balls told Harpo to stick it when he told him to take it down.

I dedicate this next sip of JD to cowboy boots, dogs,
and Doraty for believing in her man.

#102 CONservatives are elite scum on 02.13.18 at 12:43 am

#89 IHCTD9

I have no idea of what you are saying. I think you are confusing the story of Conservative Mike Harras selling the 407 for pennies on the dollar to the Spanish King. Ive paid well over 10Gs thanks to that POS Mike the sellout Harras. Oh yeah he did send me a 100 check. Thanks Mike. Oh yeah thanks to Mike Harras for Deregulating Hydro from a not for profit to for profit and causing Hydro rates to skyrocket ever since. I can go on and on with REAL stories that have cost me tens of thousands of dollars by now. Btw Conservatives and Liberals are the SAME party. Only difference Libs throw some crumbs while the greedy evil CON elite want to eat the whole cake.

#103 Smoking Man on 02.13.18 at 12:44 am

Garth what was it like . There you are in Ottawa. Good prestigious gig. Wife is happy socializing with con men a thieves.

You did your blog a Harpo a Nazi. Says take it down. You flip him the bird.

You see dogs it’s not about partisan. It’s about being a man, the thing milllenial chicks so despartly desire to lift them out of the missary girly boys bring them.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#104 simon edwards on 02.13.18 at 12:51 am

Dennis Gartman (aka as the commodity king) is actually saying that stock markets will keep going up. He is not a doomer but a mainstream media clown, sometimes looks like flip flop scam artist but has some substance. Put it simply – he is a seller of news.
Buy the dips is his last advice.

I am not smart enough to judge Jim Rogers.
He states that agriculture is the future and he is probably correct.
He also states that Asia will rise which is already a fact.

He said that markets are overvalued which make sense considering the 9 yeas bull run which increase stock prices 4 times from a depressed bottom but economy did not rise that much.
Calling him a doomer is a stretch.

#105 Smoking Man on 02.13.18 at 1:11 am

Best writers in the world found the truth when the bottle was finished and the stores were closed.

#106 Ace Goodheart on 02.13.18 at 6:58 am

Looks like the dip might be in the past. That was a very quick buying opportunity. Had to really work overtime on that one. Oh well. Back up again and everything is too expensive to be worth bothering with. Waiting for the next correction…..

#107 maxx on 02.13.18 at 7:48 am

#125 IHCTD9 on 02.12.18 at 10:21 am

“Studies have shown that money does increase happiness, but only to the point where you are comfortable paying your bills and feel secure. Anymore after that point does not increase happiness.”

Completely agree in principle, however, what so many fail to understand about actually having money is that, after the bills are paid, you are still left with so many options in life which you can exercise because you have money.

Whether you deploy these options or not, you get to enjoy the fact that you CAN take that world cruise, or offer yourself a waterfront cottage, play in the sunlight anywhere on the planet or whatever your heart desires.

Being shackled with debt and not having wealth limits life. After having paid the bills and expressing gratitude for the great people in your life, the next great thing is exploring and offering our short lives experience and joy.

Great times don’t always take money, but the keys to a vault of possibility certainly offer a wider scope to expand happiness.

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.13.18 at 8:23 am

@#39 SCM
“Nah we’re not irresponsible and reckless like the generations that came before us. ”
++++++

You give your inexperienced generation too much credit.
We’re all Lizard brains full of monkey hormones.

“I see debt people” Part Deux.
Coming to a generation near you.

#109 Andrewt on 02.13.18 at 8:33 am

As the saying goes, this got my attention.
They’re talking about net pay. Wow.

“Although the average monthly income for a payday loan borrower is $2,589, the study also found that payday loans are more likely to be used by debtors with a monthly income of more than $4,000 than they are to be used by those with an income between $1,001 and $2,000.”

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/ontario-payday-insolvency-growing-1.4532866

#110 Hvacr on 02.13.18 at 8:48 am

Humdinger. That post was absolute gold! Thanks for the modernizing PC update.

#111 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.13.18 at 8:51 am

@92 Humdinger- If you had woven a #metoo accusation into your fable it would have been a perfect reflection of modern day life.

I still give your fable an A.

#112 Stan Brooks on 02.13.18 at 8:55 am

Interesting read about the fancy socks boy

https://www.newcenter.ca/news/2017/10/7/justin-trudeau-is-far-more-dangerous-than-donald-trump

#113 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 02.13.18 at 9:00 am

Technical analysis is cute and addictive, but useful only when combined with fundamental and macro-economic analysis. And hormones. – Garth

“Cute and Addictive but not useful on its own”… really? Not sure if that is a statement you want to publicly make, but to each his own.

Tell that to your own employee Ryan or the CSTA, those managing trillion of dollars or to the tens of thousands of people gainfully employed in the financial industry.

Look up: William P. Hamilton, Robert Rhea, Edson Gould, John Magee, WD Gann…. maybe you don’t value the work of Robert J. Shiller*?

*Nobel Laureate, economist, academic, and best-selling author.

Many of our market indicators are based on these great technical analysis’ work in the field. To admit otherwise, is well… DOGma.

#114 Tater on 02.13.18 at 9:11 am

#165 tccontrarian on 02.12.18 at 2:47 pm
@ Tater

As stated earlier, myself and that other ‘contrarian’ fellow I mentioned, are both betting BIG on the decline (in the millions of $$’s), so to add another $100,000 in the pot via fleecing a clueless, nameless forum participant, wouldn’t make much sense.
Too much effort for too little reward. The only ‘bragging rights’ I’m after is a growing portfolio balance.

By end of 2019 we’ll all know who’s been right and who not. But let me leave you with a hint: check out a technical term called, “megaphone formation” – and the implications for the SP500. Go back 20 years.

Good luck to you and anyone thinking this was just a correction. It was a prelude!

TCC
—————————————————————–
Hahahaha technical analysis! Fantastic. Did you also consult your astrologist and phrenologist?

I can but a 3y one touch option on the Dow for about 45k with a 150k payoff. So, bet with you, buy option and wait. Either way, I make about 50k.

Congrats on being dumb and arb-able.

#115 technical analysis? on 02.13.18 at 9:15 am

there have been 11 recessions since 1945. one every 6-7 years. we’re due for one any time now.

There is no clock or calendar for such events. After eight years of slow recovery from a near-depression, and with growth finally accelerating, no recession is on the horizon. But keep being scared and in cash, if you want. – Garth

#116 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 9:17 am

Lets start with that piece of garbage (JT) in Ottawa who still owes the Canadian taxpayers $215K for his personal trip with his foreign lobbyist buddy. JT also contravened the rules when he and his family traveled in the Aga Khan’s private helicopter last December and when his family traveled on a non-commercial aircraft chartered by the Aga Khan in March 2016.
JT also went against the rules by not recusing himself from discussions that “provided an opportunity to further private interests associated with institutions of the Aga Khan”, the investigation found.
However JT did not discuss any parliamentary business with the Aga Khan or his representatives. Sure, sure…

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/02/12/federal-liberal-government-to-release-tax-gap-data.html

#117 Stan Brooks on 02.13.18 at 9:22 am

#92 Humdinger on 02.12.18 at 10:41 pm

———————————

My version of the story end:

The ant disappears as it found greener pastures.
Now it is withdrawing its RRSP funds and other wealth out of the country.

The grasshopper froze to death due to inability to pay carbon tax on the heating bills.

After destroying the middle class and small Businesses, wild bill retires to his french villa and enjoys the sun and his dividends.

T2 rules like his (real) father el fidel for 50 years in which Canada slowly reaches the standard of living of Cuba but without the sun and the rum.

#118 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 9:36 am

#112 Stan Brooks on 02.13.18 at 8:55 am

Interesting read about the fancy socks boy

https://www.newcenter.ca/news/2017/10/7/justin-trudeau-is-far-more-dangerous-than-donald-trump
__________________________________________
The master of disguise disgusts me with his “I’m just a regular guy routine” He is the epitome of a false Canadian. He is far from it. He has such a smirk, smug condensing attitude toward any Canadian who stands up to his false narratives. This guy would sell his rotten soul to acquire votes and stardom in the world that is if he had a soul. As a true leader he should be putting Canada first, first, and only first. We as Canadians are what matters, not any other country or peoples. This country matters. Fix your own foundations first then and only then can you help your neighbors build theirs that is if they are civil enough to be worthy of receiving your assistance. If not recognize that fact and brush the dust off your feet as you walk away from them.

#119 technical analysis? on 02.13.18 at 9:37 am

Technical analysis is cute and addictive, but useful only when combined with fundamental and macro-economic analysis. And hormones. – Garth
__________________________________________

rising interest rates, overvalued stock market, rising inflation…

good bye stock market.

fundamental analysis is more than useless.

You are no longer worthy of conversing with. – Garth

#120 SCD on 02.13.18 at 9:45 am

#92 Humdinger on 02.12.18 at 10:41 pm

Love it! Best of the day thanks!

#121 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 9:46 am

#117 Stan Brooks on 02.13.18 at 9:22 am

#92 Humdinger on 02.12.18 at 10:41 pm

———————————

My version of the story end:

The ant disappears as it found greener pastures.
Now it is withdrawing its RRSP funds and other wealth out of the country.

The grasshopper froze to death due to inability to pay carbon tax on the heating bills.

After destroying the middle class and small Businesses, wild bill retires to his french villa and enjoys the sun and his dividends.

T2 rules like his (real) father el fidel for 50 years in which Canada slowly reaches the standard of living of Cuba but without the sun and the rum.
________________________________________
I recall my father an immigrant from Italy telling me about Pierre Trudeau when he first came to Canada. He said this guy is going to destroy everything that made Canada such an attractive place to come to. My parents chose Canada over the USA and Australia because they said it was a great country for people to succeed and live in peace. It looks like his son is trying to finish the carpet bombing of Canadians.
One can only hope his bomber starts to spiral towards the cold Canadian ground in a ball of flames first.

http://torontosun.com/news/national/poll-suggests-justin-trudeaus-approval-rating-has-slipped-below-50

#122 IHCTD9 on 02.13.18 at 9:48 am

#102 CONservatives are elite scum on 02.13.18 at 12:43 am
#89 IHCTD9

I have no idea of what you are saying. I think you are confusing the story of Conservative Mike Harras selling the 407 for pennies on the dollar to the Spanish King. Ive paid well over 10Gs thanks to that POS Mike the sellout Harras. Oh yeah he did send me a 100 check. Thanks Mike. Oh yeah thanks to Mike Harras for Deregulating Hydro from a not for profit to for profit and causing Hydro rates to skyrocket ever since. I can go on and on with REAL stories that have cost me tens of thousands of dollars by now. Btw Conservatives and Liberals are the SAME party. Only difference Libs throw some crumbs while the greedy evil CON elite want to eat the whole cake.
________________________________

-The 407 was leased, not sold.

-Mike Harras [sic] has been out of office for 16 years..

16 YEARS MAN!

-Hydro rates were fine up till McGuinty brought in smart meters and introduced “competition” into the market place. The backlash against the massive price increase was so bad, McGuinty was forced to abandon the idea and freeze the price for a year. After Dolton force fed this plan to us, we now have an on peak cost 400% higher than pre-McGuinty hydro costs. Ontario now has one of the highest electricity costs in the world.

This was all done under McGuinty, and is now being made even worse by Wynne via her brain dead “debt for discount” please re-elect me plan. Good job Libs! Trudeau is now paying big businesses like GM and Chrysler to not leave the country – great plan!

Keep blaming Harris though, it gets funnier and funnier with every decade that passes since he’s been in power.

PS, if you hate paying for the 407 which you can choose not to use – you’re going to LOVE getting tolled for using roads, highways and bridges you have NO CHOICE but to use. Chinese State Corps will love receiving your cash to use their bridge located here in Canada that was 50% paid with your tax dollars. Make sure you’re not late paying the bill, or the Libs will strip you of your drivers license.

#123 FahtCoot on 02.13.18 at 9:57 am

I believe technical analysis works, at a minimum, simply because so many people believe it does and use it regularly…

Wouldn’t quant funds, algo’s and hft need some kind of numerical system and rules to work off of? It can’t all just be momentum trading and scanning headlines…

#124 Smoking Man on 02.13.18 at 10:02 am

Trumponomics

https://www.dailywire.com/news/27064/trumponomics-feds-just-made-history-tax-collection-james-barrett

#125 Westcdn on 02.13.18 at 10:17 am

An introvert thoughts before I get on with sharpening my wits. I have failures needing attention.

Credit and debt are wonderful for an economy until they don’t get paid. I have always tried to have a positive personal cash flow and assets to weather a storm better than most. I consider cash flow to be the most important metric to evaluate the potential of an investment among many. It determines, personally, the difference between an investment and a gamble. I do take gambles if I think the reward outweighs the risk but with money that I can afford to lose in a non-registered investment account.

I try to maximize cash inflow and minimize cash outflow. If I can net inflow by using leverage – so be it. I have necessities to pay. I find in my life that ensuring discretionary spending is under control works for me although it gives me the greatest satisfaction from spending.

What I consider necessity from discretionary spending is my choice and finding the right balance is tough and tougher when considering others’ interests.

There a truism that it takes money to make money – so be it but is not the only way. I started with nothing but hope, perseverance and common sense. Now I want to kick back and enjoy the time I have remaining. I don’t seek things or control when I can rent for the moment and give Caesar his due.

As a donkey, my advice is to ignore the carrot dangled in your face and go for the green grass on the other side of the fence. Now on with my modest life.

#126 ImGonnaBeSick on 02.13.18 at 10:25 am

#102 CONservatives are elite scum: Still blaming Mike Harris… pathetic. Pretty sure the liberals have been running the show for the past 14 years, longer than half of you millenials have been out of diapers. Millenials, the only generation that grew up getting trophies for losing… Don’t you have a zit to pop?

#127 Mark on 02.13.18 at 10:29 am

“You want to invest in equities when Business Week runs this cover:”

Seen any ‘death of the TSX’ or ‘death of the CAD$’ covers lately in the Canadian ‘media’?

#128 conan on 02.13.18 at 10:36 am

#116 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 9:17 am

Cons owe billions for screwed up Phoenix, screwed up ship building, and other screwed up department cuts.

It is fine and everything to talk about cutting government waste, but the Cons have shown themselves to not be qualified to do that.

Inept is being polite.

#129 IHCTD9 on 02.13.18 at 10:49 am

#112 Stan Brooks on 02.13.18 at 8:55 am
Interesting read about the fancy socks boy

https://www.newcenter.ca/news/2017/10/7/justin-trudeau-is-far-more-dangerous-than-donald-trump
_______

Too bad so many Canadians are dumb as rocks. Trudeau and Wynne will be re elected. Maybe with another majority for each.

Mind boggling that this could happen, but I’ve dumbed it down in my mind to a palatable sentence or two. Canadians have had it too easy for too long. Canadians have forgotten what is most important for society.

Hence what little I can do, I am doing. Those that vote for insanity from here on in can foot the bill themselves – I’m passing on it as much as I am able.

Tax time is coming up soon. Last year it was a 5 figure return. This year I am expecting the same. Some of that money will be heading into my ongoing effort to further reduce my tax load.

Sorry, but until I see I’ve got some representation in Ottawa and Queens Park, this is the way it’s going to be.

#130 Roadrunner12 on 02.13.18 at 11:44 am

“There is no clock or calendar for such events. After eight years of slow recovery from a near-depression, and with growth finally accelerating, no recession is on the horizon. But keep being scared and in cash, if you want. – Garth”

Put me in the being scared and in cash camp. We are definitely on different ends of the spectrum. We are well due for a recession (it will be more like a depression) and growth is accelerating? It is more like the economy is on its last legs.

Time will tell

Based on what? Your gut? – Garth

#131 IHCTD9 on 02.13.18 at 12:00 pm

#121 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 9:46 am

I recall my father an immigrant from Italy telling me about Pierre Trudeau when he first came to Canada. He said this guy is going to destroy everything that made Canada such an attractive place to come to. My parents chose Canada over the USA and Australia because they said it was a great country for people to succeed and live in peace. It looks like his son is trying to finish the carpet bombing of Canadians.
One can only hope his bomber starts to spiral towards the cold Canadian ground in a ball of flames first.
_______________________________

My parents came here with my Grandparents over Australia as well. When I was a kid, my Dad was proud to call himself a Canadian when asked where he was from. Nowadays, he cannot believe what has happened. Total annihilation of all things good well along in less than one lifetime. A smiling douchebag PM causing more trouble in one term, than all PM’s combined prior to.

I’m stuck here, but I am quietly, subtlety; keeping my kids’ minds open to the idea of working and living elsewhere in the world, or more remote parts of Canada itself. Funny to think that after one generation in Canada – my kids could be moving on to greener pastures already.

I sometimes become tempted to feel Canadians might see the danger of Trudeau and Wynne Identity Politics pushers, but then I come back down to Earth.

Who am I kidding? Canadians are lost in a fog. Something happened to our population 20 years ago, and we all got stupid.

#132 Shawn on 02.13.18 at 12:28 pm

What if the equity / bond balanced portfolio relationship has reversed? What if bonds actually INCREASE portfolio volatility over the next 20 years?

https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/blog/2018/02/11/game-changer/

That’s what you hire an advisor to worry about and adapt to. Nothing stays static. – Garth

#133 Ian on 02.13.18 at 12:33 pm

Dan Coats: US debt levels are a national security risk

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/national-debt-unsustainable-intelligence-director-coats-says-2018-02-13?mod=bnbh

#134 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 12:48 pm

#128 conan on 02.13.18 at 10:36 am

#116 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 9:17 am

Cons owe billions for screwed up Phoenix, screwed up ship building, and other screwed up department cuts.

It is fine and everything to talk about cutting government waste, but the Cons have shown themselves to not be qualified to do that.

Inept is being polite.
_________________________________________
Cons are not in power now are they? Whats your point?
The liberals are spending your money faster that the economy can support it. They re accountable now. When you assume the position you assume the responsibilities. It doesn’t change the fact that JT is a unqualified poser.

#135 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 12:54 pm

#124 Smoking Man on 02.13.18 at 10:02 am

Trumponomics

https://www.dailywire.com/news/27064/trumponomics-feds-just-made-history-tax-collection-james-barrett
_________________________________________
The Daily Wire is a politically conservative American news and opinion website founded in 2015 by conservative political commentator Ben Shapiro, who currently serves as Editor-in-Chief. The Daily Wire presents news with a right wing bias in reporting and wording. Virtually every story favors the right and denigrates the left. The Daily Wire has also published false information such as this and this from Ben Shapiro. The Daily Wire is a far right biased news source that is Mixed for factual reporting. However if you believe this shit please call me as I have some land for sale real cheap in Lee Meadows New Jersey.

#136 joblo on 02.13.18 at 12:55 pm

#131 IHCTD9 on 02.13.18 at 12:00 pm
#117 Stan Brooks on 02.13.18 at 9:22 am

Hello gents, as one of many stupid Kanucks I need help.

Where is the greener pasture blog?

And Crossborder Shoppers and SCM posts rarely make sense to old dumb me.

Seriously, I need HELP!

#137 Glengarry Girl on 02.13.18 at 1:02 pm

I’m also in Cash, saving mode, I’m not scared, I’m prepared. Staying liquid and moving into CAD at favorable exchange rates in order to buy when the upcoming Big correction or whatever you want to call it happens. This is not a Gut based plan, it’s based on common sense. The very data that is often shared on this blog as well as other sources tell us that Canadians are in way over their head.It’s based on common sense and my perception of what is happening all around me. This debt fueled economy will hit a wall at soon, and the drunken Debt binged society will have to deal with buying 168% more than they earn. When that happens, things will be on sale at discount. Boats, homes, cars, just about anything that has been accumulated in the past decade without the ability to pay for it.

#138 Fake News Again on 02.13.18 at 1:08 pm

#46 Mark on 02.12.18 at 7:52 pm
“To the fake Long Branch Apprentice, think up your own name please.”

I’d just add, there appears to be 2 “Mark”s these days, and even a ‘mark’.

I’m definitely not entitled to a monopoly on such a Biblical first name, but it may be a source of confusion to my fan base who knows me as a deflationist and the guy who correctly called the 2013 peak of Canadian RE coincident with the CMHC subprime credit cap instituted by the Minister of Finance.

_______

Hey it’s Mark “I don’t live or visit Greater Vancouver but I’m an EXPERT on its Real Estate”

#139 Jim Rogers' son on 02.13.18 at 1:23 pm

@79 Greyhound

Yes, Jim Rogers is my dad. With age he is slowly losing his marbles and is less than 5 years away from being pulled into a Nigerian email scam (as a side note, these scams don’t originate in Nigeria).

Jim Rogers sits on the board of Global Blockchain Tech. That company recently spent a bunch of money buying bitcoin mining machines from China. This pretty much sums up Jim Rogers. Follow his advice if you wish.

#140 Standard on 02.13.18 at 1:32 pm

I’m late to the game, but noticed yesterday’s car debate.

Here’s a golden tip:
A few manufacturers still carry Manual-Transmission models (which I learned were called “Standard” here in Canada.)

Now, those manufacturers do that mainly for one thing:
It looks great in advertising, as the ads can say: “From $19999,-“ whereas in reality, nearly everyone buys the Automatic Transmission, that starts at $28k instead.
Bait and switch.

However, personally I prefer manual, so I am fine with that base model at the “FROM” price.

So… buy it new, and keep it 10+ years. No headaches, no expensive repairs, no interest, you own it outright.

Many manufacturers make no profit at all, on the base-model w/o A.T. Benefit from it!
Only downside: fewer and fewer brands carry MT SUVs.

#141 Guy in Calgary on 02.13.18 at 1:35 pm

The most important factor in building wealth early in life is having a spouse that is on the same page financially. The income is doubled and since you are on the same page, so are the savings.

#142 Newcomer on 02.13.18 at 1:45 pm

#137 Glengarry Girl on 02.13.18 at 1:02 pm
I’m also in Cash, saving mode, I’m not scared, I’m prepared. Staying liquid and moving into CAD at favorable exchange rates in order to buy when the upcoming Big correction or whatever you want to call it happens.
——-

I would have thought the big bust would result in CAD going on sale. If you believe the big Canadian bust is coming, why buy CAD before then?

(For my part, I doubt there will be an out-and-out bust because Canada will be pulled along by the US, but I’m still not in a hurry to buy CAD. I’m making my RRSP deposits in USD this year.)

#143 tccontrarian on 02.13.18 at 1:55 pm

“As you may know, the Dow went up Friday and kept rising Monday by another 400 points. Bond yields that had swollen like an offended gland returned to a more-normal size. After shedding almost 10%, equities stabilized and buyers flooded in. It was the antithesis of what we’d heard last week from nutbars and doomers like Dennis Gartman and Jim Rogers. This is “the beginning of what could still be a substantive bear market in stocks,” said Twiddledum. “I fear this will be the worst bear in thirty years,” said Twiddledee.

But it wasn’t. And won’t be. The event may not be over, but there’s little doubt it’s a correction, not a crash – and sure as hell not a bear (a 20% dump lasting a few years). Markets don’t fall down just because they rise too far. They decline when prices grow too expensive and investors balk at paying them, or they reflect a deteriorating economic environment in which member companies see profits fade. Neither is happening.”

“Of course debt is everywhere. The Trump tax cuts will deliver a $1 trillion deficit in the States this year, and interest rates will bloat as a result. In many ways, society is just kicking the can down the road to be dealt with by a future generation.” -Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Maybe the ‘can’ has been kicked as far as it can go!

About the ‘bounce’? I’m sure you’ve heard of the ‘dead-cat’ type. So don’t be celebrating too soon.
Oh, and that Jim Rogers dude – he’s a billionaire from being mostly ‘right’ about the markets. I wouldn’t diss his opinions that easily.
About Gartmann, I said previously that he’s one of the best contrarian signals known to man – that’s why I covered some of my short positions (which I’ve started to add back during this little ‘bounce’).

TCC

#144 IHCTD9 on 02.13.18 at 1:55 pm

#135 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 12:54 pm
______

The article references a Federal report that does say what the article claims.

You should have went after the fact it is just one bloody month instead of just saying it’s a right wing rag so it must be fake. You could have pointed out the tax cuts probably don’t play into these numbers just yet. Those would have been good critiques.

Point: Smoking Man

#145 SoggyShorts on 02.13.18 at 2:13 pm

#74 mathman on 02.12.18 at 9:49 pm
re:68 Soggy Shorts
Thank you for the lesson.

****************
I didn’t mean to come off that way, I was more just glancing at it myself and establishing a baseline.
$1K/mo each for 10 years.
I agree there could be wildly different scenarios.
“Almost 30” could be 28
add in higher education, and we could be talking about 5 working years instead of 10
now they need to save double.
—————————————-
I remember seeing comparisons many years ago between starting an apprenticeship in a trade out of high school vs going to uni for a degree and higher paying job. If memory serves the point where the uni graduate starts to pull ahead was a few decades after high school, but I don’t think we talked about saving and investing at that time.

#146 Mark on 02.13.18 at 2:15 pm

“Hey it’s Mark “I don’t live or visit Greater Vancouver but I’m an EXPERT on its Real Estate””

I’m in the GTA and GVR frequently. Would you like to have a coffee sometime? How about at that wonderful little coffee shop in Belfountain that our host runs?

#147 Ian on 02.13.18 at 2:26 pm

Great analysis of Trump’s budget and current fiscal situation. Mindblowing

https://www.conservativereview.com/articles/8-examples-eye-popping-debt-trumps-budget/

#148 JohnnyBoy on 02.13.18 at 2:42 pm

#144 IHCTD9 on 02.13.18 at 1:55 pm

#135 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 12:54 pm
______

The article references a Federal report that does say what the article claims.

You should have went after the fact it is just one bloody month instead of just saying it’s a right wing rag so it must be fake. You could have pointed out the tax cuts probably don’t play into these numbers just yet. Those would have been good critiques.

Point: Smoking Man
_________________________________________
Is that the same federal reporting department that Donald Trump constantly berates if he doesn’t like way the numbers tell a story?
BTW That land is still for sale………… there’s one born every minute!

#149 NOSTRADAMUS on 02.13.18 at 2:44 pm

NOSTRADAMUS.
Real Estate speculators, and lets be honest , all holders of Real Estate are to one extent or another speculators. As such it would appear that we have abandoned the idea that economic laws no longer apply, allowing for an infinite range of new economic theories to flourish and multiply unconnected to reality.
When the indebted are eventually called into the bankers inner sanctuary, the wide doors of welcome will suddenly close behind them and they will not be permitted to leave until todays Shylock has his pound of flesh.
The modern cult of massive debt thus affords some gratification to the uncounted numbers of unfinished minds desperately looking for a great lie to believe in ( REAL ESTATE VALUES ALWAYS GO UP). For the lie shall set them free of conscience and personal responsibility.
The vast majority of real estate speculators are surviving on the authorship of their own fictional reality, one can only wonder at their infinite capacity for self delusion. To lie and believe the lie ( REAL ESTATE VALUES ALWAYS GO UP ). That is their only way to sleep at night. Nostradamus envisions sleepless nights only a few sleeps away.

#150 JohnnyBoy on 02.13.18 at 2:53 pm

#144 IHCTD9 on 02.13.18 at 1:55 pm

#135 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 12:54 pm
______

The article references a Federal report that does say what the article claims.
You should have went after the fact it is just one bloody month instead of just saying it’s a right wing rag so it must be fake. You could have pointed out the tax cuts probably don’t play into these numbers just yet. Those would have been good critiques.
Point: Smoking Man
_____________________________________
What why can’t I spew bullshit and fake news like Donny Baby. Donald Trump is not a Don, he is more like an under-boss or a capo. He hasn’t even been admitted to the Fratuzzi. He is merly an associate. capisce.

#151 Smoking Man on 02.13.18 at 2:58 pm

#148 JohnnyBoy on 02.13.18 at 2:42 pm
#144 IHCTD9 on 02.13.18 at 1:55 pm

#135 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 12:54 pm
______

The article references a Federal report that does say what the article claims.

You should have went after the fact it is just one bloody month instead of just saying it’s a right wing rag so it must be fake. You could have pointed out the tax cuts probably don’t play into these numbers just yet. Those would have been good critiques.

Point: Smoking Man
_________________________________________
Is that the same federal reporting department that Donald Trump constantly berates if he doesn’t like way the numbers tell a story?
BTW That land is still for sale………… there’s one born every minute!
…….

Haha coming from someone that watches CNN and beilives all.
The National Enquire has more real info than MSM these days.

Sad but true

#152 Zapstrap on 02.13.18 at 3:04 pm

#140 Standard on 02.13.18 at 1:32 pm

I’m late to the game, but noticed yesterday’s car debate.

Here’s a golden tip:
A few manufacturers still carry Manual-Transmission models (which I learned were called “Standard” here in Canada.)

Had trouble selling my last beater ($500) as it was a standard and nobody knows how to drive them anymore. The guy that bought it said he wanted it just to teach his kids how to drive one. Another thing we can’t do anymore. Lordy …

#153 jess on 02.13.18 at 3:09 pm

this: that
pollution and privatization

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2018/02/09/446250/6-things-watch-trumps-infrastructure-scam/

#154 jess on 02.13.18 at 3:13 pm

what no money for voting infrastructure?
and those five states are?

Washington, D.C. — Former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson today warned that too many state election systems remain vulnerable to attack despite clear signs that Russian hackers could again try to target voting infrastructure.”

https://www.americanprogress.org/press/release/2018/02/12/446419/release-johnson-klobuchar-warn-state-voting-systems-remain-vulnerable-hacking-urge-congress-fund-upgrades-2016-election/

Johnson told an audience at the Center for American Progress that even with clear evidence that Russia interfered in the 2016 elections, not enough lawmakers on both sides of the aisle regard election hacking as a direct threat to U.S. democracy. He noted that national elections often come down to just five or six swing states.

“If you can target key precincts in swing states and influence the outcome there, you can influence the national outcome of a presidential election,” Johnson said.

His comments came as CAP released a 50-state report showing that most state election systems remain vulnerable to hacking and foreign interference in the election process…
CAP’s election security report assigns grades to all 50 states based on their adherence to best practices in seven categories, including security measures for voter registration databases, using paper ballots, and conducting post-election audits. No state received an A, and only 11 states received a B. Five states received failing grades.

#155 SoggyShorts on 02.13.18 at 3:17 pm

#141 Guy in Calgary on 02.13.18 at 1:35 pm
The most important factor in building wealth early in life is having a spouse that is on the same page financially. The income is doubled and since you are on the same page, so are the savings.
***********************************
It’s actually even better than that since your expenses don’t actually double with 2 people. Still just 1 bed, often just 1 vehicle, or at least 1 use of fuel when you go out together etc.
Being D.I.N.K.s, my wife and I are able to put away over 50% of our combined income for retirement.

#156 IHCTD9 on 02.13.18 at 3:42 pm

#145 SoggyShorts on 02.13.18 at 2:13 pm

I remember seeing comparisons many years ago between starting an apprenticeship in a trade out of high school vs going to uni for a degree and higher paying job. If memory serves the point where the uni graduate starts to pull ahead was a few decades after high school, but I don’t think we talked about saving and investing at that time.
___________________________

I’ve done numbers for a couple working for 15.00/hr min wage at Timmies. Couple lives in small town in 125K house. Couple skips school debt, starts at Timmies age 18, saves, 1500 per month thereafter for the next 47 years till 65.

The while collar GTA home owners making 150K paying down a 1.5 mil house and 150K in school debt starting at 25 can’t save until the mortgage is well slayed. Probably not till their 40’s if ever.

The 150K couple get so far behind – they can’t catch up – ever. Time is money. The housing bubble better last a few more decades so they can retire.

The Timmies workers in a small town are millionaires by 45, and could retire at 51 making the same income from their investments as they did working – all while maintaining the principal.

I know up till now – no teens think to do something like this. This may change as more young folks make saving a priority than I’ve ever seen before. As expensive degrees become less and less valuable in the real word. Crap Job markets going forward may drive some extreme living ideas for the sake of early retirement and financial security. the MRev couple and A and hubs from Garth’s post the other day are early adopters of this stuff.

That would definitely be me if I was current day millennial.

#157 IHCTD9 on 02.13.18 at 3:45 pm

#150 JohnnyBoy on 02.13.18 at 2:53 pm

…why can’t I spew bullshit and fake news like Donny Baby.
____________________________

You absolutely can.

Problem is that’s a bad idea no?

#158 Penny Henny on 02.13.18 at 3:56 pm

#146 Mark on 02.13.18 at 2:15 pm
“Hey it’s Mark “I don’t live or visit Greater Vancouver but I’m an EXPERT on its Real Estate””

I’m in the GTA and GVR frequently. Would you like to have a coffee sometime? How about at that wonderful little coffee shop in Belfountain that our host runs?
/////////////////////////

Hey Garth, how is that COFFEE shop doing?

Also to note that Mark sometimes visits Vancouver and the GTA and this of course makes him an expert on the real estate markets.
I visit Puerto Vallarta every year. I guess that makes me an expert on their real estate.

#159 Franco on 02.13.18 at 4:11 pm

Debt does not seem to bother the Millennial’s so why worry about debt been passed on to the next generation?
It’s really a shame that the Republicans that supposed to be the party of fiscal responsibility just increased the debt by a trillion dollars. Just ride it while we can, eventually it will blow up, I will either be too old or dead to care.

#160 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 4:12 pm

#151 Smoking Man on 02.13.18 at 2:58 pm
#148 JohnnyBoy on 02.13.18 at 2:42 pm
#144 IHCTD9 on 02.13.18 at 1:55 pm
#135 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 12:54 pm
______
The article references a Federal report that does say what the article claims.
You should have went after the fact it is just one bloody month instead of just saying it’s a right wing rag so it must be fake. You could have pointed out the tax cuts probably don’t play into these numbers just yet. Those would have been good critiques.

Point: Smoking Man
_________________________________________
Is that the same federal reporting department that Donald Trump constantly berates if he doesn’t like way the numbers tell a story?
BTW That land is still for sale………… there’s one born every minute!
………………………………….
Haha coming from someone that watches CNN and beilives all.
The National Enquire has more real info than MSM these days.
Sad but true
_______________________________________
God dam it Smoking Man you are correct! Donald Trump is well known to have his eyes glued to all news about him coming out of CNN. He is fanatical about the way the world perceives him. Can’t get enough of himself on CNN. He doesn’t give a rats ass about FOX as they are his little bitch. He sort of reminds me of il Duce. Hey Smoky were going to make you a real man one of these days capisce my little bitch. vai a baciare il culo di tua madre

#161 Great Theatre on 02.13.18 at 4:22 pm

JohnnyBoy- Get a grip on yourself because T2 is in training. He has a coach that teaches him how to talk, walk, dress, think, and perform in front of media. His coach sees him daily, and goes everywhere with him. I will not mention her name, but she is a Shakespearean Actress.

#162 Keith on 02.13.18 at 4:23 pm

@#80 Mark Aside from cutting civil services wages and salaries in half as being politically unrealistic, it also doesn’t make that much of a difference.
Of that dollar you cut, you will lose 40 cent in federal and provincial income tax right away. You will lose PST and GST on the income that is spent. And you will lose the economic multiplier of the money spent in the local economy.

Cutting wages doesn’t offer a very good return for the taxpayer, and will hurt a lot of vulnerable local businesses and jobs. You may have noticed that Canadian governments haven’t cut wages in nominal terms, although there have been settlements below the cost of living – which haven’t solved the fiscal issue so far.

#163 Felix on 02.13.18 at 4:52 pm

Dog think.

Funniest oxymoron I’ve heard in a long time, Garth!

Meow :)

#164 jess on 02.13.18 at 5:00 pm

underwater mining robots….

https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/robots/a16674275/underwater-robot-mining-nautilus-solwara-1-papua-new-guinea/

#165 Ace Goodheart on 02.13.18 at 5:03 pm

So latest from the Trump-omatic: Trillion dollar deficits, no thought whatsoever to paying back any of the USA’s historic and epic debt load, really, ever, and while borrowing more than ever before, with no plans to ever pay anything back, get rid of the food stamp program and replace it with a box of canned goods, for those in need.

This guy is seriously just looting the USA. He’s not even being shy about it. Run up deficits to the trillion dollar mark, bankrupt the country, and off go the billionaires with all the money.

Sorry, we can’t afford your food stamps anymore (they say from their private tropical islands).

Oh by the way, park the new mega yacht over by the ocean front helicopter pad. I hate walking…..

#166 jess on 02.13.18 at 5:07 pm

according to David Cay Johnston

Here is what to expect as the Credit Card Republicans pursue their tax cuts for the rich and increased spending on war:

Slower job growth. During the Bush years, the population grew five times faster than jobs.
Higher interest rates, which will divert more tax dollars to paying interest on the federal debt.

For a decade the government has borrowed money at a rate of about 2 percentage points per year. However, that is mostly short-term debt that may soon rise to the level at the start of the George W. Bush administration, which was more than 6 percentage points.

On $20 trillion of total federal debt that would mean $1.2 trillion of interest each year on the federal debt. That is a sum larger than even the gigantic Pentagon budget. It is also equal to all the income taxes paid by more than 99% of Americans, IRS data tables show.”

https://www.dcreport.org/2018/02/13/looking-forward-to-a-decade-of-trillion-dollar-deficits/

#167 Mark on 02.13.18 at 5:14 pm

“@#80 Mark Aside from cutting civil services wages and salaries in half as being politically unrealistic, it also doesn’t make that much of a difference.”

It might be unrealistic right across the public sector, but when we’re talking about the people on the sunshine lists, those folks don’t exactly have a powerful political constituency, and most of them could not find replacement employment in the private sector. Additionally, if they could serve the private sector, doesn’t the private sector deserve their talent more than the public sector?

There’s no excuse for the applicant to hire ratios being so high in the public sector. The public sector should be an “employer of last resort”, not a place where everyone gravitates. The fact that much of our young want to grow up and “work for the government” is at the root of a lot of the economic ills of Canada.

#168 LivinLarge on 02.13.18 at 5:16 pm

“Funny to think that after one generation in Canada – my kids could be moving on to greener pastures already.”…yup, cracks me up. Could you ask them to turn off the lights and put the trash out when they do, please.

And don’t give up on yourself so easily, put your back into it and you could move with them…just takes some planning.

#169 jess on 02.13.18 at 5:41 pm

clinton years

1998 $69.2 Billion Surplus $101.76 Billion Surplus
1999 $125.6 Billion Surplus $180.72 Billion Surplus
2000 $236.4 Billion Surplus $329.25 Billion Surplus
2001 $127.3 Billion Surplus $172.26 Billion Surplus

https://www.davemanuel.com/history-of-deficits-and-surpluses-in-the-united-states.php

#170 Ray on 02.13.18 at 5:43 pm

#92 Humdinger
——-
If it wasn’t so possibly true, it would have been funny. I think you are absolutely spot on.

#171 SoggyShorts on 02.13.18 at 5:51 pm

#156 IHCTD9 on 02.13.18 at 3:42 pm
#145 SoggyShorts on 02.13.18 at 2:13 pm
I’ve done numbers…..
***************************
The wife and I talked recently about selling our company for whatever we can get, and going back to being blackjack dealers in a couple years.
Back when we did it before, we were getting $7 plus tips, and in Oct that will be $15 plus tips(which were around $10/h back in ’05)
We probably won’t, and will instead grind it out for a few more years before retiring in Asia.

So many posters on this blog have complained about foreign investment in Canada(valid or not), but so few mention that you can make your bank here and then take advantage of those foreign countries by retiring on a beach where the cost of living is 40-80% less……
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_countries.jsp

#172 conan on 02.13.18 at 6:28 pm

#134 Johnnyboy on 02.13.18 at 12:48 pm

“Whats your point?”

That the last Fed Con government was brutal. Anyone who talks of them, in glowing terms, is not very informed.

Trudeau’s billion dollar deficits? Fixing the mess.

#173 Glengarry Girl on 02.13.18 at 6:48 pm

Newcomer,

I moved my savings to USD at PAR 10 years ago and averaged 32 cents on the dollar tapering it back to CAD in the past couple of years. Moving while USD and CAD were at PAR just made sense to me and once it dropped 30 cents I started moving it back. Sure I could have timed it perfectly and got 42 cents 2 summers ago but I’m satisfied with tapering and getting an average. I plan to eventually buy a nice cottage home near Lake Huron in Canada and retire within 5 years. My husband earns USD, we are mobile for his job and are in major saving mode. We have fun too, I bought a nice boat a few years ago in CAD and sold it in USD last summer actually made money AND lived aboard 3 seasons. I am extremely mobile, currently living in an RV in Phoenix in order for my husband to thrive in his consulting job. We don’t need to settle down, we don’t need to touch the best egg and we are in saving and enjoying Simple Life mode. I’m not greedy and feel like I have enough cash saved to retire comfortably. I do think CAD will continue to weaken along with Real Estate and TSX within the next couple of years. When that happens, I’ll move all USD to CAD and invest. Maybe buy a nice boat in the Gulf to escape the winter. I’m surprised that more people don’t believe this end of growth is coming. This will be a global contraction, with Canada having it’s correction coming in overpriced houses. The US will also have people dumping Boats, vehicles and RVs. Once the Debt bubble bursts, vacations will also be discounted dramatically. Once people can’t tap out their Home loans for those extras, it’s just a supply and demand effect. I’m hoping we are ready to retire by then and young enough to enjoy. I’m also anticipating that we will help our young adult kids get through the downturn. it’s not frightening, it’s just life, it happens in cycles, we are overdue. The best advise to insulate yourself is to have no Debt and to live a healthy lifestyle, this gives you much Freedom. Maybe I’m a Simple person but I feel this is the safe and responsible way, all else is Gambling….sorry Garth, I don’t even trust ETFs.

#174 KLNR on 02.13.18 at 6:52 pm

@#171 SoggyShorts on 02.13.18 at 5:51 pm
So many posters on this blog have complained about foreign investment in Canada(valid or not), but so few mention that you can make your bank here and then take advantage of those foreign countries by retiring on a beach where the cost of living is 40-80% less……
________________________
as long as you have your health.
Insurance can be pricey.

hopefully 30 or so years down the road I can call it quits and head to equador

#175 SCD on 02.13.18 at 8:19 pm

I’m in cash too since mid January. Just my opinion but I think we are at or near enough the top of the cycle. I’d rather wait until we go down more and buy again then. I’m not a buy and holder.

#176 buttercup on 02.14.18 at 6:32 am

Another woman blogcat here to say nice, informative post Garth. Yes there are women who also follow this blog, So smarten up you sexist turds! This is a betterment opportunity blog with a lot of free, valuable information with the generous space to share ideas with one another. Try to give it the respect it deserves, eh! That includes (s)he? who shall remain nameless. Is that your best behaviour? Come on…

#173 Glengarry Girl
I like how you think! Women can be terrific with finances.
Of course you’re aware that all fx gains and losses (over $200 net gain per year) are taxable as either a capital gain or other income, depending on the nature of use of the foreign currency.
I do tend to agree with your cycle theories. I am currently about 20% cash with no stomach for bonds. I was a graduate of the IFIC mutual fund sales training (with top marks in my office) and have a BCIT financialplanning certificate, {i} (Honours) {i}, but I know better now. Like how badly the fees hurt our long term results. I really wanted to be a fee only planner, but no one wanted to “pay” for a plan back then. I didn’t last as a MF salesman. I believe it IS different this time. “Past performance does not guarantee future results”!

Hubby, who just retired, and I are currently looking to Mexico for our retirement financial longevity.
We almost made it to Ecuador with the idea to move there eventually… unfortunately an undetected bug we had picked up on our 10 or 11th trip to Mexico two years earlier cancelled our plans just five days before scheduled liftoff, and weeks before the massive earthquake in 2016. Good tax treaty with them and they welcome Canadian ex-pats as residents with minimal income requirements. Most Pesticide free agriculture country in the world,, with moderate tempurature year-round.
Instead we ended up selling our house later that year, and banking some coin thanks to the Vancouver market craziness reaching out to cheap distant markets, although it was our realter’s nephew that ended up being the buyer. Our neighbour there just listed his slightly older home for about 35% higher than our supposedly record sale price for non-waterfront Detached. Can’t wait to see if it goes! Yikes!

#177 Kootenai Ma on 02.16.18 at 1:40 pm

Hallelujah

Great reminder to “focus on what you can control” and keep up the good “working”….

Tova calls it “picking up her Texts” as we move about town. Miss Border Collie cross comes to work every day with the Bookkeeper (me) and fortunately we are 500 metres fr the town dog park on the lake, more than a K of open off leash paths, beaches, wolf willow, and sticks. She is a working dog but our town is short on sheep so she counts….

And the liver treats always in the desk drawer….