Faster, higher, stronger?

DOUG By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

Alas, what could have been.

Blame the 14-hour time difference between PyeongChang and North America, which is a TV-ratings killer, but we won’t, of course, be seeing NHL players at this year’s Olympic Games. So, instead of witnessing one of the most jaw-dropping and talented lineups in Canadian hockey history—Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid and Steven Stamkos to name but a few—we’ll be seeing Quinton Howden, Rob Klinkhammer and Wojtek Wolski. No doubt these unknowns will play their hearts out for Canada, but I certainly won’t be waking up in the wee morning hours to see them play.

However, the Olympics are still an incredibly exciting and joyful spectacle overall and there may be a silver lining here because when people are happy, markets move higher.

Much has been written about the effect of mood on the market. Jason Zweig in his book on behavioural investing, Your Money and Your Brain, noted that “stocks earn slightly higher returns on days when the sun is bright than on days when the sky is overcast”. Similarly, Zweig also noted that outcomes of sporting events also impact the markets. Losing an important World Cup soccer match, for instance, usually means that the home market of the losing team will underperform the next day. Subtly, how we feel about a sporting event influences our investing behaviour.

Sheer nonsense? Perhaps, but many years ago, when I was mightily bored on the equity research desk, I looked at all the Olympic Games of the modern era, both summer and winter, dating back to 1988—when Canada hosted the winter Olympics in Calgary. A total of 16 Games in all. Sure enough, during the two-week period of the Games themselves, the market of the host country traded higher almost 70% of the time and had an overall average total return of 1.3%. Not bad for two weeks.

Market Returns During Past Olympics

Source: Bloomberg. Host country benchmarks: Korea: KOSPI Index; Spain: IBEX 35; France: SBF-250 Index; Norway: Dow Jones Nordic 30 Price Index; Greece: Athens Stock Exchange General Index; US: S&P 500; Canada: S&P/TSX Composite; China: CSI 300 Index; Italy: FTSE MIB Index; Australia: ASX 200 Index; Japan: Nikkei 225; Russia: MOEX Russia Index and Brazil: Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index.

_____________________________________________________________

Interestingly, the market momentum tends to continue for months afterwards. Typically, the markets of the host countries rally strongly in the 12 months after the closing ceremonies—a 16.3% total return on average (the Canadian market rallied 12.7% after Calgary and 24.0% after Vancouver). Further, the host country market performance, either positive or negative, during the two weeks of the Games tends to correspond to that market’s performance over the next 12 months almost all of the time. If you believe in spurious correlations, pay attention to what the South Korean market does during the PyeongChang Games, it could have bearing on how it does for the coming year.

And in case you need further proof that sports can influence investor behaviour, the S&P/TSX Composite traded down (-0.9%) the day after the men’s Olympic hockey team lost in the medal round in 2006 in Turin, traded higher following the gold medal win in 2002 in Salt Lake City (+1.2%), traded higher after Crosby’s Golden Goal in Vancouver in 2010 (+0.9%) and traded higher after the gold medal win in Sochi in 2014 (+0.2%).

Naturally, I’m not suggesting that you trade our stock market based on the performance of a hockey team. I present these stats for fun, which, after all, is what the Olympics are all about.

Besides, we likely won’t have a hockey team that can move markets this time around anyways.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

93 comments ↓

#1 SoggyShorts on 02.10.18 at 3:11 pm

GT, when you make trades for your clients, is there a fee per trade on top of the 1% you charge? If so, can I ask how much that is?
Thanks

Zero. – Garth

#2 For those about to flop... on 02.10.18 at 3:17 pm

Weekend Rewind.

This week in howmuch articles…

M43BC

Suburbs Really are the Best Places to Live in America

https://howmuch.net/articles/best-cities-to-live-in-every-state

Most & Least Expensive States in the Country for Home Insurance

https://howmuch.net/articles/home-insurance-cost-in-every-state

Visualizing the History of Bitcoin Crashes: Are Hodlers Prepared for the Next Bull Run?

https://howmuch.net/articles/bitcoin-all-major-crashes

Mapping Governor’s Salary in Every State

https://howmuch.net/articles/every-governors-salary-by-state

#3 For those about to flop... on 02.10.18 at 3:19 pm

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#4 Shawn on 02.10.18 at 3:23 pm

Great insight Doug, thanks for this.

Why does MSCI consider South Korea an emerging market while FTSE considers them a developed country?

If investors used XEF and VEE to gain exposure outside of Canada and the US they would miss out on South Korea entirely.

#5 For those about to flop... on 02.10.18 at 3:30 pm

Hey Robax, I reached back in the Ol’ memory bank to see if I had anything to supplement your article.

This one does.

Sort of…

M43BC

“The Olympic Games Always Go Over Budget, in One Chart (1968-2016)

The water in one swimming pool turned green. Apart from that, the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro went off without a hitch. Preliminary figures also indicate that the Rio Olympics ‘only’ cost 51% more than originally budgeted – which by Olympic standards is a great success.

But that this could be considered good news hides the bigger, uglier truth: all Olympic Games go over budget. In fact, they are the only type of mega-project in the world to do so. These graphs show the total cost of 18 Summer and Winter Olympics held between 1968 and 2016, and the cost overruns for each of those Games. That should give cities hoping to host the Olympics some pause for thought.

At first glance, the message of these two graphs seems positive: a few outliers notwithstanding – most notably London 2012 and Sochi 2014 – the cost of Olympic Games seems relatively stable; and again discounting Sochi, the worst of the cost overruns occurred before the year 2000.
But let’s take a closer look at those figures. They were taken from a research paper produced for Said Business School at Oxford University, the first study ever into cost and cost overrun at the Games. It focuses on sports-related costs (i.e. operational costs such as admin and catering, and direct capital costs such as the construction of the venues and Olympic village). The study excludes indirect capital costs (i.e. upgrading transport and hotel infrastructure), because data on these costs is rare and unreliable – even though they are often higher than sports-related costs.

Even excluding indirect capital costs, reliable data for the amounts of the original bid and the eventual cost was available for only 19 out of the 30 Summer and Winter Olympics held since 1960. “Incredible as it may sound for more than a third of the Games (discussed here), no one seems to know what the cost overrun was”, the researchers note. “For some Games, hiding costs and cost overruns seems to have been more important, for whatever reason”.

So the available figures probably paint a conservative picture of Olympic cost and cost overruns. Keeping that in mind , the average outturn cost (i.e. budgeted cost plus cost overrun) for Summer Games is $5.2 billion, and $3.1 billion for Winter Games. The costliest Summer Games ever were those in London 2012 at $15 billion, followed by Barcelona 1992 at $9.7 billion and Montreal 1976 at $6.1 billion. Only the Winter Games at Sochi 2014 were more expensive than London 2012, at $21.9 billion. The second-most expensive Winter Olympics was Turin 2006, at $4.4 billion; followed by Salt Lake City 2002, at $2.5 billion.

After London and Sochi, and fortunately for the troubled finances of Brazil, the Rio Games herald a return to the average, at an overall turnout cost of $4.6 billion. This includes the 51% extra alluded to earlier – again, in line with median cost overrun since 1999.

The gold medalist in cost overrun is Montreal, which went over budget by 720%. This despite the city’s then-mayor boasting, in 1973, that “the Montreal Olympics can no more have a deficit, than a man can have a baby”. Fewer predictions have been more wrong: no other host city has overrun its initial cost estimate for the Olympic Games by as much as Montreal. The Summer Olympics of 1976 saddled the city with a mountain debt that took it 30 years to pay off.

But Montreal is just the worst example of a remarkable phenomenon: all Olympics go over budget. Percentage-wise, Sochi – the most expensive Games overall – doesn’t even take the silver. That goes to the 1980 Winter Olympics in Lake Placid, which went over budget by 324%. On the lower end of the scale are the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City (24%), the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver (13%) and the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing; although researchers take the allegation that those only cost 2% more than budgeted with the grain of salt required when ingesting any Chinese government information.

But also the relatively good score for London 2012 – ‘only’ 76% over budget is deemed a bit suspect: “In 2005 London secured the bid with a cost estimate that two years later was revised upwards with around 100%. When the final outturn costs were slightly below the revised budget, the organizers falsely, but very publicly, claimed that the London Games had come in under budget. Such deliberate misinformation of the public about cost and cost overrun treads a fine line between spin and outright lying”.

In fact, the average cost overrun for the Olympics is 156% (176% for Summer Games, 142% for Winter Games). Almost four out of five Games studied in the paper overrun the initial cost estimate by at least half, while almost one in two end up costing at least double. Compare that to other megaprojects: road building typically overruns by 20%, bridge and tunnel construction by 34%, megadams by 90% and large IT projects by 107% – but none of them allthe time.

So why is it so singularly difficult to deliver the Olympics within budget? As the report somewhat sarcastically summarizes: “If, perversely, one would want to make it as difficult as possible to deliver a megaproject to budget, then one would (1) make sure that those responsible for delivering the project had never delivered this type of project before, (2) place the project in a location that had never seen such a project and (3) enforce a non-transparent and corrupt bidding process that would encourage overbidding and place zero responsibility for costs with the entity that would decide who wins the bid. This, unfortunately, is a fairly accurate description of the playbook for the Olympic Games”.

To be fair, the International Olympic Committee has created an Olympic Games Knowledge Management Program (OGKMP), specifically to transfer skills from former host cities to new ones. It came into effect for the first time in the run-up to the Sydney Summer Games in 2000. And indeed, median cost overrun before that date was 166%, while it dropped to 51% for all the games after that year. It would take only one or two cost overrun outliers like Sochi to erase the benefits of the OGKMP.

So, all eyes turn to PyeongChang, South Korea for the 2018 Winter Olympics and to Tokyo, Japan for the 2020 Summer Olympics. Which budgetary records will they break?”

https://howmuch.net/articles/olympic-costs

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.10.18 at 3:36 pm

The “Sports/Market” stats may be interesting but……no one I know, friends, coworkers, anyone is talking about the Winter Olympics.

Unless of course you’re the CBC and its All Olympics all the time. Who needs local news about boring stuff like fires, murders, robberies, etc when you have…….curling.

#7 jas on 02.10.18 at 3:49 pm

At the end of 2007, TSX was at 13800
And a decade later (Friday) it is at 15034
A decade of going no where !!
So much for buy and hold ….
Even after considering div earnings and inflation it’s hopeless.

#8 Yanniel on 02.10.18 at 4:18 pm

Hi Doug,

In your view, does momentum investing have any merits or is it just a hoax?

http://www.optimalmomentum.com/momentum.html

Thanks.

#9 Yanniel on 02.10.18 at 4:24 pm

Hi Doug, Ryan, Garth,

It’s me again. Just a thought: Would you guys consider writing about tax efficient portfolios once the TFSA and RRSP are maxed out? I recently learned about swap based ETFs (great for non-registered portfolios) and this all seems a very interesting and useful topic.

Have a great Weekend.

#10 NoName on 02.10.18 at 4:24 pm

Brain, noted that “stocks earn slightly higher returns on days when the sun is bright than on days when the sky is overcast”. – DR

what bring me to this video about dude who touches hes nose all the time. definetly watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v01SxXui9XQ

#11 Conscientious Investor on 02.10.18 at 4:37 pm

We had to send the women’s team to do a man’s job and they will be worth waking up early for. Hopefully, the NHL owners will all expire from insatiable greed by the time the next Olympics rolls around.

I keep reading about how the inverse VIX ETF’s upset the markets last week, and how the Vega was responsible. I didn’t think Chevy made that POS anymore. Can you explain how the Vega works and whether I should worry?

#12 Andrew Woburn on 02.10.18 at 4:53 pm

#5 For those about to flop… on 02.10.18 at 3:30 pm

“The Olympic Games Always Go Over Budget, in One Chart (1968-2016)

The gold medalist in cost overrun is Montreal, which went over budget by 720%. This despite the city’s then-mayor boasting, in 1973, that “the Montreal Olympics can no more have a deficit, than a man can have a baby”. Fewer predictions have been more wrong: no other host city has overrun its initial cost estimate for the Olympic Games by as much as Montreal. The Summer Olympics of 1976 saddled the city with a mountain debt that took it 30 years to pay off.
===================

That brought a flashback to my days as a young tax auditor for a large but placid North American country.

I was assigned to check out a few things at a major construction company that had taken on part of the clean-up of the Montreal Olympic Stadium after the original crew flamed out. BTW I concluded this successor company was squeaky clean.

I asked the controller if I could review their stadium contract. He said sure but I would have to go to Montreal where lay the original contract and literally a roomful of change orders. I respectfully declined but it occurred to me if the white hats who were brought in to save the project were having to deal with that much chaos, what was the original process like?

#13 Andrewski on 02.10.18 at 4:57 pm

Hey crowded…. why’re you so dour on the Olympics?

#14 Prince Polo on 02.10.18 at 5:11 pm

Doug – love the fun post you made today linking hockey with the Olympics. Kudos!

Hi Garth! Saw your Instagram photo of an old BMO building in Lunenburg. Are you opening another ice cream shoppe? I know someone who could be your head scooper (ice cream and pooper)!

#15 joblo on 02.10.18 at 5:15 pm

Best line I read this week:

“Gerald, go stick your head up you last name!”

#16 conan on 02.10.18 at 5:16 pm

Looks like Iran sent a drone into Israeli air space……
I am sure Israel will respond proportionately.

Don’t go overkill or anything.

#17 Andrew Woburn on 02.10.18 at 5:17 pm

I am doing a little financial consulting work for a start-up with operations in the US and Mexico. Part of it involves trying to come to grips with the international business structuring issues that follow from the recent US tax reform.

I a stunned at the outright incompetence of the US Congress. I can’t blame Trump because we all know he is a clueless narcissist, but you would hope that 100 US senators, many of whom have been in government for years, would prioritize the orderly management of their economy over political tricks.

Seems them days are gone. This legislation passed in late December and came into effect Jan 1. Many of the changes are Yuuuge and reverse longstanding policies around which intricate major corporation organization strategies have been built. Tax experts at firms like Price Waterhouse are scrambling to analyze complex changes which sometimes seem to conflict. The IRS hasn’t had time to develop guideline policies.

In Canada changes of this magnitude would never have been made in less than two years and would never have come into effect overnight. There would have been plenty of input and discussion from experts and a chance to understand the business implications before the rules change. That amounts to a minimum level of professionalism from a credible government.

I cannot tell whether the US changes will help or hinder. I only know that the tax system is one of the fundamental building blocks of governance and any government that will rip it up and change it without careful consideration, without even taking time to read the legislation, is seriously out of control.

MAGA, my ass.

#18 Stan Brooks on 02.10.18 at 5:22 pm

#7 jas on 02.10.18 at 3:49 pm
At the end of 2007, TSX was at 13800
And a decade later (Friday) it is at 15034
A decade of going no where !!
So much for buy and hold ….
Even after considering div earnings and inflation it’s hopeless.

———————————-

The real economy is half of what it was in 2000.
in terms of manufacturing, energy.

We replaced the rest with debt, housing causing huge capital miss-allocation.
And all financials derivatives. Some services.

Now the game is over.
What do you expect TSX index to be? 6000 sounds correct level to me.

If you take out all the credit – 300 billions a year, even that is generous.

We can not fool all the people all the time.

Why do you think there are no investors on TSX and in Canadian Businesses so our illustrious PM has to go around the world to beg for investments offering cheap Canadian labour that is still 10 times more expensive than abroad?

#19 Danny on 02.10.18 at 5:57 pm

Very interesting perspective on when “the Plebs ” are happy so too goes the Empire. The Roman Empire knew this very well which explains why they invested in the sports of the day with many collosseums and the open air amphitheater.

Yes distractions some times succeed. But with every Empire that passed, …..this distraction was not infinite.

The problem is that when more analysis comes out on the extent of personal loan and mortgage defaults…..the markets and real estate will suffer.
You see when defaults happen….the victim will not be distracted by sport…it will be so personal that it will affect the extended family. Like those ” banks of mom” that Garth reminds us of all constantly.

I do not believe that people are not living beyond their means…..so eventually the dam…..will break.

So as you have indicated before get ready so you are not surprised.

Even if Pathetic Trump gets his biggest waist of tax payers dollars with his “Military parade for dictators and kings”…..the distraction here too will not work.

#20 Doug Rowat on 02.10.18 at 5:58 pm

#7 jas on 02.10.18 at 3:49 pm

At the end of 2007, TSX was at 13800
And a decade later (Friday) it is at 15034
A decade of going no where !!
So much for buy and hold ….
Even after considering div earnings and inflation it’s hopeless.

If you look at 10-year rolling market returns, the odds of a positive annualized return are extremely high (~90%), but they’re not a certainty. You picked one of the worst entry points in history and are also assuming that you’ll add nothing to your portfolio along the way.

For the vast majority of long-term investors, capital markets are a great way to grow your wealth.

–Doug

#21 Stan Brooks on 02.10.18 at 6:00 pm

#17 Andrew Woburn on 02.10.18 at 5:17 pm
I am doing a little financial consulting work for a start-up with operations in the US and Mexico. Part of it involves trying to come to grips with the international business structuring issues that follow from the recent US tax reform.

I a stunned at the outright incompetence of the US Congress. I can’t blame Trump because we all know he is a clueless narcissist, but you would hope that 100 US senators, many of whom have been in government for years, would prioritize the orderly management of their economy over political tricks.

Seems them days are gone. This legislation passed in late December and came into effect Jan 1. Many of the changes are Yuuuge and reverse longstanding policies around which intricate major corporation organization strategies have been built. Tax experts at firms like Price Waterhouse are scrambling to analyze complex changes which sometimes seem to conflict. The IRS hasn’t had time to develop guideline policies.

In Canada changes of this magnitude would never have been made in less than two years and would never have come into effect overnight. There would have been plenty of input and discussion from experts and a chance to understand the business implications before the rules change. That amounts to a minimum level of professionalism from a credible government.

I cannot tell whether the US changes will help or hinder. I only know that the tax system is one of the fundamental building blocks of governance and any government that will rip it up and change it without careful consideration, without even taking time to read the legislation, is seriously out of control.

MAGA, my ass.

———————————

You mean the assault on small Businesses in Canada that:
– treats business income as employment income without accounting for the risk
– gives public corporations huge advantage when compared to private
– threatens small Business with unclear rules in order to keep them afraid
– steals and taxes at 70 %+ retained earnings in professional corporations/doctors
– interprets freely past legislation in terms of spirit of law
– kills family businesses with inability to split rewards while splitting risk

……………………..

the list here can go on for a while

so these legislation proposed by proven ethically challenged financial leader (he was fined for that by the ethics commissioner) that somehow benefit his former company in the pension business
(sure the above is pure coincidence and he have no intent to question the good intentions of the Honorable mister who is so busy to work for Canadians with his rolled up sleeves so he has no time to declare his french villa or put his assets in a blind trusts while somehow managing to sell some shares at the right time)

that were marketed with few staged appearances with selected audience while disregarding almost every constructive feedback, with lack of time to discuss broadly in order to come to rational solution, forced in an arrogant manner (calling 2 million people tax cheats)

that will absolutely decimate and destroy the business and employment in this country

is an example of thoughtful approach that is superior to the US tax break?

(as you stated:
In Canada changes of this magnitude would never have been made in less than two years and would never have come into effect overnight. There would have been plenty of input and discussion from experts and a chance to understand the business implications before the rules change. )

I don’t think so.

#22 Stan Brooks on 02.10.18 at 6:09 pm

#19 Danny on 02.10.18 at 5:57 pm

I do not believe that people are not living beyond their means…..so eventually the dam…..will break.

—————————–

That is way overdue/the dam breaking.

In more rational nations (US) it happened 10 years ago and the critical thinking prevented the crap (credit) bubble from over-blowing, while here, Oh boy, I have no words what will happen and how smelly it will be WHEN (not if) it hits the fan.

Hell, even Ireland looks better when compared to us (and they declined 50-70 % from their peak which was much lower in terms of absolute valuations or price to income ratio)

In my estimate we are 3-5 times worse than US at the height of their RE bubble.

Repeat with me – baby boomer McMansion on Bathurst and Major Mac (at a crappy half-occupied dollar-store/LCBO/Russian store plaza) sells for 3.2/pardon me, 2.2 MILLION?

Sure. Pass the booze.

#23 Stan Brooks on 02.10.18 at 6:18 pm

But hey, let’s keep repeating that we are number one in G7 in terms of growth (but can not raise rates, well, it is simple, we basically live on a giant credit card/debt) and our banks were the most stable in the world (and only required 114 billion in shadow assistance, amount bigger than their market cap during the big financial crises; btw that was really annoying and class-less)

I am sure these delusions will help us when the thingy hits the fan.

Stay away form TSX except mining.

#24 Team Canada Hockey on 02.10.18 at 6:21 pm

Good Luck to Team Canada, Bring us a gold like you did in the Spengler Cup! If you do, I will buy XIC the next day!

#25 Dmitry on 02.10.18 at 6:37 pm

Who cares about olympic games anymore?
Nothing to do with sport these days.

#26 Dummy on 02.10.18 at 6:46 pm

Hi Doug, am I dumb if I want to buy individual stocks?

#27 jas on 02.10.18 at 7:03 pm

#20 Doug Rowat
You picked one of the worst entry points in history and are also assuming that you’ll add nothing to your portfolio along the way.

For the vast majority of long-term investors, capital markets are a great way to grow your wealth.
—————

Doug, I was illustrating that just buying and holding is entirely useless, as some people advocate.
and as for ‘long-term’ investors, below is more evidence how useless buy-and-hold strategy is.
Examples from S&P 500 of the time it took to recover initial investment, never mind any growth:

26 years from 1901 to 1927
29 years from 1929 to 1958
23 years from 1968 to 1991 23

If these periods are not ‘long term’ in relation to a human life span, I don’t know what is.

Those interested can read more at the following link and look at the graph of Real S&P 500 Total Return
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/you-should-never-time-the-market/

#28 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.10.18 at 7:04 pm

@#13 Andrewski
“why’re you so dour on the Olympics?”
++++++

Watching the hormone and steriod freaks of the 1970’s , 80’s, 90’s, 00’s Olympics have a bit to do with it.
If it was strictly “amateur sports” I might be a bit more interested.
I also find the “jingoistic flag waving” a bit hard to take.
As if our “medal count” means anything in the long run….or ‘olympian” events that defy logic.
Hence the aforementioned Curling.
Strutting around Tim Hortons after we take gold in Curling yelling “Can-nuh-duh, Can-nuh-duh “……..
nah.
The Olympics have become big business, with big sponsers and I would say that if you could garantee ANY athlete a “Gold” medal representing themselves instead of a country……90% of them would jump at it.

Its all about those Post Olympic sponsership endorsments……cereal boxes, motivational speaking engagements, Tim’s commercials…..

#29 Gerrie McBride on 02.10.18 at 7:24 pm

@ #27 jas.

Have you heard of dollar cost averaging and re-balancing?

That’s how the cool kids invest #millenials

#30 Mark on 02.10.18 at 7:42 pm

“At the end of 2007, TSX was at 13800
And a decade later (Friday) it is at 15034
A decade of going no where !!
So much for buy and hold ….
Even after considering div earnings and inflation it’s hopeless.”

Yes, but the cyclicals have gone from being at cyclical peaks in early 2008, to being at cyclical lows today. Some cyclicals are selling for drastically beneath their replacement costs, particularly in mining, telecom, railways, and oil and gas. Balance sheets are incredibly clean. Interest rates are near their extremities for lows and are set to rise (rising long-term rates tend to help the TSX).

Yes, you have to be a contrarian to load up on the TSX these days, but usually outsized returns come to those who are contrarians and are able to pick up undervalued, under-loved assets. Some sectors of the TSX, such as the precious metals miners, are at 1983 prices nominally. How many other sectors can you pick up these days at prices of 35 years ago?

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.10.18 at 7:42 pm

The “Olympic Dream”……..

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/sep/07/corruption-olympic-movement-ioc

#32 MF on 02.10.18 at 8:12 pm

Penny Henny on 02.10.18 at 3:11 pm

“I worked in a restaurant for years as a server. Most of the other servers were middle aged recent immigrants and raising a family.

I wouldn’t blame them but I would blame the politicians.

Continue to eat out, but choose wisely.

MF

????????????????????

Swiss Chalet?“

-Lol they do have good chicken, and I just know Turnernation needs lots of protein for the muscle building required to hang around King West.

MF

#33 MF on 02.10.18 at 8:25 pm

“16 conan on 02.10.18 at 5:16 pm
Looks like Iran sent a drone into Israeli air space……
I am sure Israel will respond proportionately.

Don’t go overkill or anything”

-The only country in the world that has to be told how to defend itself.

MF

#34 Long-Time Lurker on 02.10.18 at 8:30 pm

#135 sleepingdragon on 02.10.18 at 11:03 am
@106 Long – Time Lurker

Thanks for giving me another perspective. That was a very short-term call: just for this current correction.

#35 Dave on 02.10.18 at 8:49 pm

Fun??!?? More like a boring waste of my time….I gotta remember to skip the blog next Satuday.

#36 Doug Rowat on 02.10.18 at 9:26 pm

#27 jas on 02.10.18 at 7:03 pm
#20 Doug Rowat
You picked one of the worst entry points in history and are also assuming that you’ll add nothing to your portfolio along the way.

For the vast majority of long-term investors, capital markets are a great way to grow your wealth.
—————

Doug, I was illustrating that just buying and holding is entirely useless, as some people advocate.

Stop citing the Great Depression as your starting point. THAT is entirely useless. Relax and watch the Leaf game.

—Doug

#37 Sideshow Rob on 02.10.18 at 9:57 pm

Feast your eyes on this chart by the St Louis fed.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Set it to 1 year.
Virtually all inter-bank lending in the US stopped last week. This implies that someone big blew up and who it is has not been made public. Hang on to something solid. Stuff is about to get real.

#38 DON on 02.10.18 at 9:58 pm

OWELYMPICS

The traveling beggar and debt show.

If you miss this one another one will be along in 4 years.

#39 Lost...but not leased on 02.10.18 at 10:12 pm

Olympics are nothing but a scam.

It has morphed from a simple athletic competition into an ego trip for nations and their leaders.

Each successive Olympics exacerbates the one- upmanship…they cost the host nations billions of dollars on infrastructure for a 3 week party, then the majority of it sits and rots.

Few can remember who won the last time, individually or teams or aggregate medals per nation.

Simply bread and circuses to the masses.

#40 Lost...but not leased on 02.10.18 at 10:23 pm

Flop…

Re Olympics
I’m not sure if others are aware that Vancouver almost hosted the 1976 Winter Games as a default site.

Regardless, a while back, the author of “LORDS OF THE RINGS “was interviewed.

The basic premise is that Olympics are a racket for contracting firms who follow the Olympic circuit from nation to nation…given almost all Olympics go over budget… a gold medal cash cow.

This is compounded by the fact that the technology becomes more advanced for each Olympics and customized for a short term event. aka Olympics breed white elephants.

#41 Lost...but not leased on 02.10.18 at 10:54 pm

#2 Flop….

Re Suburbs..

May want to check Dr. E Michael Jones and his book
” SLAUGHTER OF CITIES: URBAN RENEWAL AS ETHNIC CLEANSING” can also see him on YOUTUBE

His basic premise is that the suburbs were simply another Gov’t psy-opp.

Academia and Gov’t studied the decline in Detroit. During the war, many factory workers ended up in the military. Blacks from the South migrated North in large numbers to Detroit to fill these well paid jobs. Many Detroit citizens, feeling overwhelmed, then fled from the City.

What “Big Brother” gov’t deduced was that many Cities had strong ethnic bases which affected voting patterns aka block votes from Italians..or Greeks..or…These had to be dismantled.

The US Gov’t developed HUD and Section 8 housing. On the surface,Big Brother Gov’t seems benevolent.

However, in Machiavellian fashion, these policies were weaponized to be located in the aforementioned ethnic neighbourhoods to displace =destroy them and their voting power.

However the suburbs main intent was to provide an option for the City diaspora..aka leave the increasingly ghettoized City for this new concept called the SUBURBS.

Lesson: Nothing happens by accident..peel back a few layers.

#42 Ronaldo on 02.10.18 at 10:59 pm

#7 jas on 02.10.18 at 3:49 pm

At the end of 2007, TSX was at 13800
And a decade later (Friday) it is at 15034
A decade of going no where !!
So much for buy and hold ….
Even after considering div earnings and inflation it’s hopeless.
————————————————————–
And on May 20/08 the TSX was at 15047.

#43 ANON on 02.10.18 at 11:02 pm

If it’s the circus side of panem et circenses which returns the value, then, for efficacy’s sake, could we get away with only the closing ceremonies?

#44 Ronaldo on 02.10.18 at 11:08 pm

#30 Mark

”Yes, you have to be a contrarian to load up on the TSX these days, but usually outsized returns come to those who are contrarians and are able to pick up undervalued, under-loved assets. Some sectors of the TSX, such as the precious metals miners, are at 1983 prices nominally. How many other sectors can you pick up these days at prices of 35 years ago?”
————————————————————–
Exactly. This is why you have to play the sectors on the TSX. Buy the sectors that are in the tank and wait. Like we did in fall of 2015 with the mining sector. Purchasing an ETF like HEP would have given you a 100% return by August of 2016 plus dividends. We will have another such run again in the not too distant future.

#45 Keith in Rio on 02.10.18 at 11:47 pm

The Olympics are a scam.

NBC and the dozen corps that are olympic patrons, along with the criminals in the IOC receive the majority of the revenue for ZERO RISK.

#46 Newcomer on 02.10.18 at 11:54 pm

#41 Lost…but not leased on 02.10.18 at 10:54 pm

Lesson: Nothing happens by accident..peel back a few layers. … of your tinfoil hat, must get sweaty under there.

#47 Big Daddy on 02.10.18 at 11:58 pm

I laugh at the brilliance of Rocket Man sending his NK tighties to the Olymps to avoid a well deserved carpet bombing. Will the fleet get jiggy when the world turns it’s head back to climate….popery and gender benders?

#48 Dolce Vita on 02.11.18 at 12:07 am

The Winter Olympics is billions spent so that a few select World jocks can go frolick in the snow and ice together.

And that somehow translates into national pride of athletic superiority.

Boggles the mind.

#49 Mark on 02.11.18 at 12:17 am

“Feast your eyes on this chart by the St Louis fed.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Wow, nuts. Didn’t even realize it was that bad. So much for rate hikes, down to zero we go!

#50 For those about to flop... on 02.11.18 at 12:31 am

Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed.

Here’s another recent sale that snuck in the before the January deadline going 13 days ago on January 29th.

One of the more affordable options that was on the market in Vancouver,let’s see if I can get a response and show you guys what it went for…

M43BC

2712 Pandora Street, Vancouver paid 1.29 asking 1.44

Apr 11:$1,588,000
May 2: $1,399,000
Change: – 189000.00 -12%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2712-pandora-street

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMlFYRQ==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#51 Dolce Vita on 02.11.18 at 12:39 am

#18 Stan Brooks

You are correct.

Canada is not a country that will prosper with Free Trade. Our wages, simple cost of living and production will always be high due to a scant population scattered over a massive territory with cold, brain numbing weather most of the year [or brain soaked weather as in the case of YVR].

Now Garth et. al. will argue to their last drop of blood that Free Trade has been good for Canada and roll out there Excel Charts (without any axes labelling) to prove their point.

True, low quality tee shirts from China and Bangladesh are a lot cheaper now at WalMart and StupidStore.

The facile electronic transfer of investment money across the World has made his industry and cohort very profitable [and wealthy].

Why HE likes it [why he can afford to buy more expensive high quality tee shirts from Italia – if he has any taste].

Canada is still a nation of natural resource hewers and drawers. We prospered in the 60s, 70s and early 80s [and before] when we had protectionism – when foreign companies were forced to build Canadian factories and infrastructure if they wanted access to the Canadian market, not just for autos.

We also prospered because let’s face it, resource poor countries like China or resource hungry countries like the US need our natural resources, because they either do not have any or enough.

So we had the World by the tail then, the best of both Worlds.

With protectionism gone, what did Canadian Governments think was going to happen?

We were going to miraculously outperform the World after decades of home spun protectionism and a resource based economy?

So much for purchasing power parity and trade economic theories [you produce what your good at…it will all work out in the wash].

More like the Law of Unintended Consequences (Murphy’s Law of the Economists) won out…no dung Sherlock.

Now we have a Lefty West Coast Premier that would rather land lock Alberta’s oil that brings in foreign money to Canada just to keep a few 0.1% coastal homeowners RE prices high and that voted for him.

That last sentence, pretty much sums up why Canada is going to have to look hard at itself in the mirror and ask what it has become economically, and if it ever wants to maintain its standard of living in the future.

The TSX, nothing more than an exchange that lacks the depth and breadth of a DOW. What does anyone think would happen there? Resources go up, TSX up, resources down, TSX down.

#52 Westcdn on 02.11.18 at 12:41 am

My preferred shares started to melt last Thursday. I am tempted to buy more US preferred shares. The ones I have targeted have high yields and are cumulative but they are perpetual (yield never resets). Since interest rates are rising, I am not keen on perpetual preferred shares but they are getting discounted by Mr Market. The problem is how high the US Fed will raise their interest rates. I am focussed on inflation and my view that the Fed wants interest rates to be at least a full 1% above inflation.

If the US was to go into a recession, their preferred shares could be valuable to me as an exchange rate hedge to my Canadian cumulative, reset preferred shares. IMO, the Canadian dollar is going to fade against the US$. The tax treatment of the dividends should not be an issue as long as the paperwork is proper. US taxing of preferred shares

My budget includes a 5.5% nominal annual return consisting of dividends and capital appreciation until I turn 90. If I am still going, I will have to sell my house. I chose 5.5% because it is easily beatable with the right attitude and it provides me a real rate of return after inflation. Right now, I can’t see official inflation rates exceeding 4% for long.

I want my Canadian preferred shares to be cumulative, to reset within 2 years and trade at a discount to face value. I look for issuing companies that use less the 50% of their cash flow for dividends and contributed preferred share capital is less than 25% of common share capital and their debt to equity ratio is less than 1. I am betting on one more ¼ % interest rate bump in 2018 with 2 more to follow in 2019.

March should be an interesting month for me. Snooze control, ho hum. Plus there is nothing like the pain of failure to sharpen my wits.

#53 nah on 02.11.18 at 12:45 am

Yes, you have to be a contrarian to load up on the TSX these days, but usually outsized returns come to those who are contrarians and are able to pick up undervalued, under-loved assets.

…………..

down just under 8% ytd. We have another 5% downward movement, at least

#54 For those about to flop... on 02.11.18 at 12:49 am

Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed.

This 2 bed/ 2bath condo in False Creek sold 15 days ago after reducing their price and waiting a while.

Reported a couple of guys taking losses down that way,these guys probably made out o.k and hopefully a realtor will tell us if the madness in that segment continues…

M43BC

Sold on January 27 2018

1101- 88 w1st ave Vancouver paid 1.41 asking 1.88 now 1.68

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/88-w-1st-avenue/1101

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#55 Smoking Man on 02.11.18 at 1:07 am

I read Jordan Peterson’s book.

He missed out the main driver to pure happiness.

Ditch friends. Look in the mirror naked and lie to yourself.
Don’t get any better than that.

#56 diharv on 02.11.18 at 2:01 am

Markets move higher when people are happy ? Well , people must have been in a foul pissy mood the past week . Hopefully the Olympics will pull them out of their funk , whoever and wherever they are.
There is more to the winter olympics than hockey and I would venture to guess that the absence of NHL players will have zero impact on ratings . There are a lot more compelling stories in the olympics than what a billion dollars worth of hockey players are doing in their spare time . So thankfully that distraction is gone . I will cheer for Team Canada but it will be on the non live replay as I will not be getting up at two in the morning to watch whether there are NHL players or not !

#57 maxx on 02.11.18 at 7:39 am

#15 Niagara Region on 02.09.18 at 6:02 pm

Just look at the blog as a really great nightclub with the usual mix of characters – some amazing and outstanding and some you wouldn’t touch with a barge pole. The club has a great owner, a solid gold human being who won’t tolerate misogynistic/racist commentary.

No worries, except that any and all comments run through the mill of dawg scrutiny……woof!

Haul up ye olde bootstraps and get on the dance floor. This blog has far too much value to pass up.

#58 Hayley on 02.11.18 at 8:07 am

Sidney who?

#59 Old Ron the Realtor on 02.11.18 at 8:33 am

I don’t know anyone under the age of 55 who is watching the Korean games. Part of a bigger problem, not just the time zone difference. Millennials (who outnumber boomers) don’t watch sports, or conventional TV for that matter.

Bad news for folks like Rogers who lay out $435 million a year to broadcast the NHL, to dwindling audiences. They are stuck with that turkey contract until 2026.

Meanwhile cord cutting in Canada has accelerated to 200,000 lost accounts a year. And watching a 3 minute highlight package on your phone doesn’t pay their bills. Buh-bye.

As far as the mood of the stock market goes ? I didn’t think that algorithmic programmed trading had moods.

#60 Doug Rowat on 02.11.18 at 8:46 am

#48 Dolce Vita on 02.11.18 at 12:07 am
The Winter Olympics is billions spent so that a few select World jocks can go frolick in the snow and ice together.

And that somehow translates into national pride of athletic superiority.

Boggles the mind.

—-

Glad you and Lost aren’t giving the locker room speeches.

—Doug

#61 Where's The Money Guido? on 02.11.18 at 9:01 am

Re: #5 For those about to flop… on 02.10.18 at 3:30 pm

Olympic Games Always Go Over Budget, in One Chart (1968-2016)

the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver (13%)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=
From what I remember, to get the Olys, Vancouver said it would originally cost around $700 million, but it ended up costing $9.2 billion, I figure they blew over $10 billion….And yet the Liebs still said they were on budget and MADE MONEY, lol.

http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/reports/Vancouver_report.pdf
https://this.org/2010/01/12/alternative-budget-olympics-vancouver-2010/
Quebec spent 30 years paying off the debt it racked up for the 1976 Montreal Summer Games. There’s no reason so far to expect that Vancouver will be any different. British Columbian and Canadian taxpayers have already incurred hundreds of millions of dollars in rampant budget overruns—the Athlete’s Village and security budget are only two prime examples.

The problem with the official budget is that it excludes Olympics-related infrastructure costs, like the Sea-to-Sky Highway, despite the fact that the Games are the only reason that money’s being spent.

If we include infrastructure and other Olympics-related costs, the total bill for the 2010 Vancouver Olympics is at least $9.2 billion—although no one will know the final bill, realistically, until the games are long past. VANOC intends to recoup some of their costs selling off the Athlete’s Village after the Games end—but the recession and subsequent tanking of Vancouver’s real estate market makes that plan increasingly dubious.

Here’s our independent tally of the real cost of Vancouver 2010:

Bid budget $34,000,000
Security $900,000,000
Sea-to-Sky Highway expansion $1,980,000,000
Canada Line construction $1,900,000,000
Venue construction $580,000,000
Cypress Bowl ski facility upgrade $16,600,000
Athlete’s Village construction $1,080,000,000
Opening ceremonies $58,500,000
VANOC operating budget $1,750,000,000
Hillcrest/Nat Baily Stadium Park $40,000,000
Vancouver Convention Centre expansion $883,000,000
Event tickets for provincial MLAs and cabinet ministers $1,000,000
TOTAL $9,223,100,000

#62 curlinglarrymoe on 02.11.18 at 10:04 am

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.10.18 at 3:36 pm

The “Sports/Market” stats may be interesting but……no one I know, friends, coworkers, anyone is talking about the Winter Olympics.

Unless of course you’re the CBC and its All Olympics all the time. Who needs local news about boring stuff like fires, murders, robberies, etc when you have…….curling.”

Hey c’mon, the Swiss guy taking out the Korean dude with the stone was hilarious. Imagine if that had been a North Korean knocking down a Korean….it could have been bigger than the Archduke Ferdinand assassination before WW1. Never underestimate the geopolitical significance of curling. It’s a blood sport!

#63 technical analysis? on 02.11.18 at 10:09 am

nice, no comment on a collapsing stock and bond market..

#64 curlinglarrymoe on 02.11.18 at 10:18 am

#12 Andrew Woburn on 02.10.18 at 4:53 pm

That brought a flashback to my days as a young tax auditor for a large but placid North American country.

I was assigned to check out a few things at a major construction company that had taken on part of the clean-up of the Montreal Olympic Stadium after the original crew flamed out. BTW I concluded this successor company was squeaky clean.

I asked the controller if I could review their stadium contract. He said sure but I would have to go to Montreal where lay the original contract and literally a roomful of change orders. I respectfully declined but it occurred to me if the white hats who were brought in to save the project were having to deal with that much chaos, what was the original process like?”

It was alleged by some bean counter boots on the ground that fully laden dump trucks would enter the Big Owe site multiple times, exit through the back with the load, and then enter with the same load, and be double or triple counted…….tricks of the quantity surveying racket!

#65 TurnerNation on 02.11.18 at 10:29 am

#32 MF yes it’s survival of fittest. And my retirement vs. “immigrants and family people”? My cash will win – and stay in my wallet.

Trends…something really strange going on in Kanada. In past 2 months a flood of stories of locals meeting harm in godforsaken places overseas: Cambodia, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan. Yet their stories make little sense, you can watch their rehearsed tearful testimony on Tee-vee and observe the handlers at their side, nodding at every good word.

Is it to show us we must live in an a relative paradise here? Although, if I defend my property and family against a known and committed gang bent on terror, and get a fair trial, the top leaders/actors in the land will immediately tweet out their division. “We must do better”.

It’s lala land..actors everywhere. Two rocketmen, an Orange man and a Drama teacher. There’s nothing else going on in the world but entertainment and CGI?
How about sports…all T.O. teams owned by MLSE money machine. Hint the ‘E’ stands for Entertainment.

#66 Sue on 02.11.18 at 10:31 am

#37 Sideshow Rob on 02.10.18 at 9:57 pm
Feast your eyes on this chart by the St Louis fed.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Set it to 1 year.
Virtually all inter-bank lending in the US stopped last week. This implies that someone big blew up and who it is has not been made public. Hang on to something solid. Stuff is about to get real.

Wow thank you! this cant be good, does anyone have opinions why this is happening so suddenly?

#67 curlinglarrymoe on 02.11.18 at 10:31 am

#62 curlinglarrymoe on 02.11.18 at 10:04 am

Hey c’mon, the Swiss guy taking out the Korean dude with the stone was hilarious. ”

Apologies to Swiss friends, it was pesky scandi from Norway, not a Swiss. Don’t get yer yodelling lederhosen in a knot, but it was an honest mixup of generic bland euro-types!

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.11.18 at 10:43 am

@#61 Where’s the Money?

And lets not forget the agreement that BC/Vancouver made with the IOC to “Green” our city.
A 40 year legacy project to separate storm sewers from sewage. Upgrade rainwater/sewage piping all over the Lower mainland etc.
Billions will be spent.
To keep with the “green cash agenda” of those Owe-Limp-Icks.

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/separating-sewage-from-rainwater.aspx&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwi2md3GmZ7ZAhVGw2MKHcKPC8MQFggUMAA&usg=AOvVaw3UXFwmrZX8qXYRncJ13axy

#69 Lost...but not leased on 02.11.18 at 10:53 am

#46 Newcomer…

Brainwashed party-line plebs have a right to exist and regurgitate the current dogma.

Their top rebuttal lines include “tin foil hats”

Contrarians were often the most ardant of the aforementioned, till something tweaked their curiosity, and as Sherlock Holmes would say..once all the other possibilities were excluded, and what’s left..no matter how strange, must be the truth.

Why people throw tin foil hat comments around really shows how bad society is insofar as closed minds and kool-aid chugging.

#70 Lost...but not leased on 02.11.18 at 11:03 am

Canada, NAFTA etc..

Intriguing re Canadian Auto Industry..
Apparently, it gained a foothold based in the fact Canada was a Commonwealth member nation.

It was granted access to other Commonwealth markets, hence it prospered. Once the US saw this, it increased investment in Canada.

#71 jess on 02.11.18 at 11:28 am

this 7 year team :

According to the indictment, the Infraud Organization was created in October 2010 by Svyatoslav Bondarenko aka “Obnon,” aka “Rector,” aka “Helkern,” 34, of Ukraine, to promote and grow interest in the Infraud Organization as the premier destination for carding—purchasing retail items with counterfeit or stolen credit card information—on the Internet. Under the slogan, “In Fraud We Trust,” the organization directed traffic and potential purchasers to the automated vending sites of its members, which served as online conduits to traffic in stolen means of identification, stolen financial and banking information, malware, and other illicit goods. It also provided an escrow service to facilitate illicit digital currency transactions among its members and employed screening protocols that purported to ensure only high quality vendors of stolen cards, personally identifiable information, and other contraband were permitted to advertise to members.

According to the indictment, Infraud members held defined roles within the organization’s hierarchy. “Administrators” managed day-to-day operation of and strategic planning for the organization, approved and monitored membership, and meted out punishments and rewards to members. “Super Moderators” oversaw and administered specific subject-matter areas within their expertise. “Moderators” moderated one or two specific sub-forums within their areas of subject-matter expertise. “Vendors” sold illicit products and services to Infraud members. Finally, “VIP Members” and “Members” used the Infraud forum to gather information and to facilitate their criminal activities. As of March 2017, there were 10,901 registered members of the Infraud Organization.

During the course of its seven-year history

The international operation to dismantle the Infraud Organization would have been impossible without the significant efforts and timely cooperation of the Justice Department’s Office of International Affairs and International Organized Crime Intelligence and Operations Center; Interpol Rome; Interpol Tirana; the Italian National Police (Postal and Communications Police); the Australian Federal Police and the International Crime Cooperation Central Authority, Australian Government Attorney-General’s Department; the U.S. Diplomatic Security Service, Regional Security Office at U.S. Embassy Tirana, Albania; the City of London Police, DCPCU; the French Ministry of Justice, the Paris Prosecutor, L’Office Central de Lutte contre la Criminalité liée aux Technologies de l’Information et de la Communication; the judicial and police authorities of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg; the Directorate for Organized Crime Investigation, Sector for Cyber Crime Investigation; the Basic Prosecution Office Pristina, Kosovo; and the Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Kosova, Department for International Legal Cooperation and the Special Prosecution Office for High-Tech Crime of the Republic of Serbia. ”

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/thirty-six-defendants-indicted-alleged-roles-transnational-criminal-organization-responsible

#72 Lost...but not leased on 02.11.18 at 11:45 am

Re: Olympics

Personally speaking, I don’t limit my critique re: boondoggles to Olympics.

Watching the last Superbowl…it was played in a new $1 BILLION stadium,1/2 of that taxpayers funds. The winners of the game claim they are “World Champions”

Now, MLB players are whining….may go on strike..another Millionaire athlete pissing match with Billionaire owners

Then..the biggest mystery of all..Maple Leaf fans. Why anyone would support perpetual losers with close to sell out crowds is beyond me….

In Vancouver people vote with their brains and wallets ..with a crappy team, lots of empty seats.

While one tries to focus on pure athleticism, “its all about the money” seems to be the norm.

#73 Chicks with Sticks on 02.11.18 at 12:20 pm

Impenetrable!

5 – 0

Go Canada!

#74 Keith in Rio on 02.11.18 at 12:33 pm

#64 Curlinglarrymoe…….

Olympic corruption……..say it isn’t so…….LOL !!

When Brasil got awarded the 2016 games they were showing footage of the then president Lula and a host of his political cronies at the ceremony where the announcement was made by the IOC.

When Brasil was announced as the winner of the games, all you cold see were these people jumping up and down hugging each other and smiling like stuck pigs. They had all become multi-millionaires overnight due to the corruption that was about to unfold.

All it takes is 2 million people protesting in the streets in Copacabana (where I live) with signs calling for the military government to come back and take power from these criminal politicians for the country’s judiciary to get a backbone.

Currently there are some 1,800 politicians and business people under indictment in Brasil for money laundering and olympic corruption in regard to contracts. The Federal Police figure 50% of the olympic funding was fraud and went to the communist government run by Lula and his cronies. Yet people in the northeast have no running water, and Rio cannot pay the police in the streets because no one has any money left in the public coffers. Lula just lost his second appeal against his 12 year prison sentence for fraud and corruption, so the fat festering communist f**k is going to die in jail where he belongs.

In Calgary we have Mayor Spendshi and his left wing cohorts in city council now thinking it would be a great idea for Calgary to get the 2026 winter olympics.

#75 kc on 02.11.18 at 12:45 pm

OWELYMPICS…. to those that prefer NHL players be there…. GET REAL …..

Those pre-madonnas already play a game for millions of dollars and endorsements. When pros take over amature sports that is the end of the real competition.

every year the NHL has their “all star week” let that be the shining period.

Calling a week of tossing a bunch of guys that never played together a team is a bunch of magic wands….

If they want to play on an Olympic team, they should take a year off and practice as a team. play all the games prior to the 5 ring circus against other teams to meld into a coherent group….

think woman’s hockey team. they are a real team that travels together and is welded into a real group.

Men’s hockey is a joke… as was the NBA “dream team”…

#76 Smoking Man on 02.11.18 at 1:04 pm

Now I’ve seen it all.

On the news KTLA5
Small dog wind advisory in effect at 3.

Only in LA

#77 N on 02.11.18 at 1:24 pm

New method of taxation…
Could send shivers for many homeowners.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/london-council-seeks-new-guilt-tax-from-millionaires/articleshow/62874893.cms

#78 Gravy Train on 02.11.18 at 2:08 pm

I haven’t seen hide nor hair of InvestorsFriend for over a week! I suspect he’s cheesed off with LivinLarge! N’est-ce pas? :)

#79 Eyestrain on 02.11.18 at 2:40 pm

Doug, nice to see someone at TI has a love for hockey and a sense of humour.
If we can be serious for a moment…..

S&P 500 percentage earnings were about double the current from 1970 to 1980, and yet the market slowly dropped about 50% over that period. Was inflation the problem, or oil, or the gold standard, or did people just run for the hills?

#80 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 02.11.18 at 2:48 pm

Paying attention:

The chart at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG is last updated the week of Jan. 16, 2018, reflecting the prior week data. Makes sense to me that there are limited interbank loans during the holiday season, especially new years when financial institutions are closed.

Nothing to overly read into here, folks.

#81 I luv Hayley on 02.11.18 at 2:52 pm

#75 kc on 02.11.18 at 12:45 pm
think woman’s hockey team. they are a real team that travels together and is welded into a real group.
***********
Ditto! They played an awesome game today, as good as the men without the wrestling.
They served up a maple-glazed to those Siberian Huskies.

The US team will be tougher though, need to draw some penaltys. Get em in a corner and whisper “Trump’s yer Daddy”.

#82 SoggyShorts on 02.11.18 at 3:18 pm

#61 Where’s The Money Guido? on 02.11.18 at 9:01 am

I think the number that surprised me most was the
$900,000,000 for security.

I mean if you are paying a security guard $9,000 for 2 weeks work, that seems pretty generous.
Did we have 100,000 security guards?

I feel like you could borrow the entire military from a couple of small countries for a half billion per week……

#83 SoggyShorts on 02.11.18 at 3:21 pm

Actually I just looked it up, and only 10 countries in the world spend more than 500m per week on military defence….

#84 Capt. Serious on 02.11.18 at 3:23 pm

Men’s hockey is a joke… as was the NBA “dream team”…

I’ll take a best vs best tournament any day over this mess they’ve cooked up for the Olympics this year.
And by the way, back before the Iron Curtain fell, Russia etc were effectively using professionals because the players couldn’t leave.
The Olympics have a lot of problems in a wider sense, but if we’re going to have the games, just allow the best athletes from each sport to go. Forget about amateur vs professional, the lines are way too blurred now.

think woman’s hockey team. they are a real team that travels together and is welded into a real group.
Oh right, the sport where there are two teams that are competent. Yes, so much excellent parity. SMH. And you do know most of the Canadian women play in leagues too, right?

#85 conan on 02.11.18 at 3:23 pm

#75 kc on 02.11.18 at 12:45 pm

NHL Players + Winter Olympics = TV Dynamite

TV Dynamite = Jet Setters + dollars + profitable games

The stakeholders will figure out the money for the next games.

https://youtu.be/W_PtoXZB_qI?t=107

#86 Dissident on 02.11.18 at 3:25 pm

#162 Widening Gyre on 02.09.18 at 3:12 am
#60 SCD on 02.08.18 at 7:04 pm – I’ve long suspected that there are WAY more women on this blog than than is generally assumed.
From now on I will always be identifying myself as a woman so that the dogs can see that this blog is also full of bitches. :-)
_____________________

Amen to that. This blog was recommended to me by a fellow female friend. So there. Now my sister is investing in stocks, doing quite well, at the chagrin of her “investment advisor”. Hah!

#87 Eyestrain on 02.11.18 at 3:59 pm

#80 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 02.11.18 at 2:48 pm
Paying attention:

The chart at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG is last updated the week of Jan. 16, 2018, reflecting the prior week data. Makes sense to me that there are limited interbank loans during the holiday season, especially new years when financial institutions are closed.

Nothing to overly read into here, folks.
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Exactly my conclusion, until I looked at the previous year’s data for the same time period. I didn’t look any further back, … trying to get my advisor on the phone.

#88 Mark on 02.11.18 at 4:05 pm

“Wow thank you! this cant be good, does anyone have opinions why this is happening so suddenly?”

For starters, there were probably people on the wrong side of that volatility trade that blew up. Whether customers, or institutions themselves who may have piled into such in seek of additional returns.

Rising interest rates have destroyed a lot of bank capital on a mark-to-market basis. Yes, a lot of the publicly facing ‘economists’ that the banks employ claim that rising interest rates are good for the banks, but nothing could actually be further from the truth — higher interest rates destroy long-term bank assets such as loans. Higher rates also suppress realized spreads as banks cannot sustainably invest for returns greater than nominal economic growth.

Additionally the tax changes apparently have forced the banks into significant write-downs. Which in turn impairs their ability to lend.

The US economy is completely and utterly dependent on low interest rates. Much of the economy has been built on the premise that cheap and ever expanding credit will be available. This is why a day of reckoning will be upon us at some point, and Canada’s less levered, and inversely correlated economy should start to seriously outperform after so many decades of anemic growth.

#89 Lost...but not leased on 02.11.18 at 4:19 pm

Re Olympics:

The solution? = have PERMANENT sites.

Vancouver only “won”(unfortunately) the Olympics based on slim margin and as a default choice based on backroom skullduggery via other bids.

As noted above, the security budget was almost $1 Billion dollars…its a gravy train of Overtime for the police,military, contractors etc. on the extremely remote odds anything would happen.

Maybe GOOGLE China’s 2008 Olympics venues and infrastructure…or any other host country from the past..much of it is vacant,unused and in disrepair.

Olympics is simply an over- hyped brand….just like McDonald’s allegedly sells “hamburgers”.

#90 Russ on 02.11.18 at 4:42 pm

Lost…but not leased on 02.11.18 at 4:19 pm

Re Olympics:


Olympics is simply an over- hyped brand….just like McDonald’s allegedly sells “hamburgers”.
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Damn. You’re right.
I just Gaagled it and there is no ham in those things!
:)

#91 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.11.18 at 7:14 pm

The Canadian women’s Olympic hockey team would get destroyed by any Canadian Boy’s high school team.

#92 NotLegalAdvice on 02.12.18 at 7:28 am

With a market that may be correcting itself in 2018, how much return can one expect to make on a well balanced portfolio?

I understand that there may be the possibility of losses this year, but overall in the long haul, we could expect 7 – 8 percent returns.

My question is, is it still investing this year if the market is correcting itself, or should I wait until December of this year?

Thanks Garth!

#93 Doug in London on 02.12.18 at 12:36 pm

The US stock market has shed 9% from its all-time high last month. Some people think it’s on sale now.
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Yes, the US stock market is on sale, but the TSX? Wow, some stocks listed there are in Boxing Week blow off sales where the boss says clear the inventory out NOW!