The miss

Recent topics have included fear & loathing on the stock market (down 1,032), fear & loathing on the crypto market (BTC @ $8k) and, of course, fear & loathing in the housing market (416 detacheds crash $90k). Throw in a few canines and hormones and you pretty much have the pathetic Greater Fool formula for mind-numbing tedium.

So, let’s expand our repertoire and add fear & loathing about retirement. Seriously. This has the potential to dominate and define life in this frozen country for decades as the wrinklies move into their Depends Years and the Mills grow up and freak out. Twenty-three years ago I wrote a book forecasting a retirement crisis about now. Bingo. Here.

The latest tally from one of the big banks (the maroon one) confirms:

  • People who should know better (aged 45-64) who have saved nothing: 32%
  • Canadians who have no idea if they’re saving enough (but doubt it): 53%
  • Average amount people think they need to save to retire: $756,000
  • Average amount actually saved: $184,000
  • People with less than $50,000 saved: 19%
  • People with absolutely nothing saved: 30%
  • Men with a financial plan: 32%
  • Women without a plan: 78%

Meanwhile, as you know, 70% of Canadian own houses and have a collective $2 trillion in debt, two-thirds mortgages. But it gets worse: the household savings rate has declined to merely 2.6% of income, down almost half in a year and vastly below the 7.4% average for the last 35 years. In other words, debt is ramping up by about 8%, meaning we’re spending more than we earn, financing the rest while saving at a rate barely about inflation.

Concurrently, interest rates have reversed after eight years in the ditch. People renewing mortgages this year (42%) will do so at an increased cost, affecting cash flow. And there’s $220 billion in home equity LOCs which are at floating rates, 40% of which are not being repaid – just growing. Let’s totally depress ourselves with a reminder that 93% of TFSAs are not fully funded and most of the money in there sits in interest-bearing investments, making nothing.

What are we thinking? Now that bond yields are swelling so fast that stock markets are affected, the cost of all that debt is going nowhere but up.

This is a snapshot of failure. Financial illiteracy. Epic miss. Even rich people are messing up. Of those who want $100,000 retirement incomes and need $2 million saved to finance that, just one in six has achieved it.

In response, the feds and provinces have enhanced CPP – but it’s so distant only today’s teens will see any extra dough at 65, (and it’ll be minimal). Along the way the current government has slashed contributions for the single best retirement vehicle (the tax-free account) and is systematically raising taxes on small business owners, the self-employed, higher income-earners, investors (soon) and, via enhanced CPP premiums, the entire middle class. That makes saving harder. So do elevated mortgage rates.

Well. What a cock-up. As this situation festers you can bet politicians will try to ‘fix’ things by increasing taxes more in order to fund universal retirement incomes that will provide subsidence living for millions of surprised seniors. Another safe bet is that real estate – where most people have the bulk of their net worth – will come under pressure as pension-poor wrinklies are forced to cash in. Remember that 72% of Canadians lack guaranteed retirement incomes, or have low-energy mutual fund-based group RRSPs run by dweeb insurance companies.

All this goes to the basic message of the blog. Never gamble, but invest. Don’t ever put all of your net worth in one asset. Pursue balance, with a variety of assets – including liquid ones. Cease borrowing money. If you can’t afford the house you want, stop wanting it. And get a plan, which doesn’t involve hope, theft or lottery winnings.

Let’s remind again what a hundred bucks a week in a balanced ETF portfolio brings: At an average 7% return after 30 years it sums $532,000 (of which 376,000 is growth). This should provide an annual income of $37,000, tax-free. Add in CPP and OAS, and the total is $55,000 – no taxes.

Sure this might not be enough to survive on a few decades from now. And, yup, stock markets are going to plunge a few times (like today) as well as gain. But that’s no excuse for not starting. Combine this with the tax-shifting power of an RRSP, and you can stop being a statistic.

Sober prediction: most people won’t change anything. They’ll use a day like this on financial markets as an excuse. They will borrow, nest and shelter in place. They will vote for the guy taxing someone else, who promises loaves and fishes. So you might want a moat, too.

267 comments ↓

#1 Penny Henny on 02.08.18 at 5:48 pm

I am so first.

#2 TurnerNation on 02.08.18 at 5:50 pm

Diversity is our balanced portfolio’s strength.

#3 Penny Henny on 02.08.18 at 5:50 pm

oh yeah. we got us a correction.
Dec 18 went 60% cash.
Feb 8 now 34% cash.

#4 Mr. Messauguen Ist on 02.08.18 at 5:52 pm

“Women without a plan: 78%”

Are you serious? Feminist policies in Canada give women everything on a silver platter (well at least only certain types of females while the rest are discriminated because of intersecting identities like racism, transphobia, homophobia and anti-Indigenous racism in nearly every sector of government in Canada).

#5 Women without a plan: 78% on 02.08.18 at 5:55 pm

#weforshe

#6 Would Like To Know on 02.08.18 at 5:58 pm

Garth, are you able to devulge what a 5 year and 3 yaer average return should be on a balanced portfolio not counting this years market turmoil. thank you.

A 60/40 returned almost 11% last year, 8.5% the year before and 7% over the last seven years. The latter is typical of long-term performance over decades of back-testing. – Garth

#7 Jungle on 02.08.18 at 6:01 pm

It’s true. Try to have a conversation with a women about anything financial.

very unengaged and unknowledgeable.

But apparently women make better since stores because they don’t tinker with portfolio.

#8 Infidel on 02.08.18 at 6:01 pm

And the stock market is now in a correction — 10% off its record high just two weeks ago.

No different than RE no matter how one spins it.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/08/investing/dow-jones-stock-market/index.html

Financial assets move in value more quickly, are 100% liquid, have no property taxes, condo fees, land transfer tax or 5% selling commission plus they pay you income while houses Hoover it. Seem different to me. – Garth

#9 Jungle on 02.08.18 at 6:03 pm

I will wax influenza’s porch and Lamborghini for $40 bucks, I need some extra money to recover loses in my portfolio. I only lost a couple Honda civics.

#10 Stan Brooks on 02.08.18 at 6:04 pm

Just run as fast as you can away from this place and take whatever you can from your net worth while you (still) can.

They will look for you to:
1. support baby boomers and pay for their retirement and health care
2. pay all that accumulated debt/accumulated from other generations.
3. support your kids in an environment with no jobs
4. pay the mortgage
5. save for retirement
6. pay carbon taxes
7. pay wynne’s electricity bills – the most expensive electricity in the world
8. make rich all the oligopolies – financial, insurance, retail, communications, energy etc.
9. get equal pay independent of the work committed, i.e. work your behind to death to support everyone
10. shut you mouth up and don’t dare to complain or we they will take away your kids.
11. pay for government benefits, private island vacations and private pension funds for profits of companies associated with ethically challenged public sector servants,
12. Be thankful that you will get free lubricant, courtesy of wild bill
13. experience inflation without income indexing
14. enjoy the global cooling while paying higher heating bills.

#11 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 6:05 pm

This is the most accurate and informative post i have seen on your blog since i started reading 8 years ago. It should be compulsory reading for anyone planning to live, work and retire in Canada. We should all send a link to all kids,friends and relatives. Well done Garth.

#12 MF on 02.08.18 at 6:07 pm

Just looked at the results of today’s trading and everything is down.

CPD, which is supposed to be rate sensitive and increase when rates are supposedly increasing, is down.

Bond funds down, along with stocks.

What else is left?

MF

A one-day assessment. Funny. – Garth

#13 Polymer on 02.08.18 at 6:08 pm

You forgot to mention that up in Canada we are getting destroyed by: food costs that are higher including bread price fixing. Cell phone plans that are outrageous. In bc a monopoly for an insurance company, the threat of no income splitting, housing prices that are extremely unaffordable, gas prices that are insane, and every government employee taking and spending without regard.

Instead of planning to Retire, find a job you love because you’ll be at it for life.

#14 Stan Brooks on 02.08.18 at 6:11 pm

#10 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 6:05 pm
This is the most accurate and informative post i have seen on your blog since i started reading 8 years ago. It should be compulsory reading for anyone planning to live, work and retire in Canada. We should all send a link to all kids,friends and relatives. Well done Garth.

——————————–
Retire?

Do you believe you will be left with the spoils of TFSA and RRSP growth (if smart enough to invest in non CAD denominated assets)?

sweet dreams.

I am sure T2 and wild bill have another plans for your money (hint- it is not yours until you spend it).
But hey, hope is free!

#15 Tommy Douglas on 02.08.18 at 6:11 pm

Question for the blog, if I am supposed to have 5% cash balance as a ‘defensive’ position, should i be putting this in a money market etf? My direct trading account does not pay interest on cash balance. Thanks for any suggestions.

#16 None on 02.08.18 at 6:12 pm

I see what you did there:

Men with a financial plan: 32%
Women without a plan: 78%

I wonder why you didn’t write:

Men without financial plan: 68%
Women with a financial plan: 22%

I know the math is the same I’m just curious why you wrote it the way you did. I’m sure you get the implication.

Women live longer and have a greater need for a plan than men. I was trying to get the reader’s attention. It worked. – Garth

#17 Michael King on 02.08.18 at 6:13 pm

The Financial Times has a new unsettling article titled
“Canada’s housing market flirts with disaster”. Well worth your time if you have access to their website’s contents. Garth has already mentioned many of the issues discussed in the piece. Cat food on white bread toast is going to be very popular.

#18 Stan Brooks on 02.08.18 at 6:13 pm

#13 Polymer on 02.08.18 at 6:08 pm
You forgot to mention that up in Canada we are getting destroyed by: food costs that are higher including bread price fixing. Cell phone plans that are outrageous. In bc a monopoly for an insurance company, the threat of no income splitting, housing prices that are extremely unaffordable, gas prices that are insane, and every government employee taking and spending without regard.

Instead of planning to Retire, find a job you love because you’ll be at it for life.

————————-
It won’t help you with the inflation tsunami heading to our shores.

#19 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.08.18 at 6:14 pm

Generally speaking, women’s financial plans are predicated on marrying a man to support them.

Not that there is anything wrong with that. It is what it is.

#20 Penny Henny on 02.08.18 at 6:14 pm

You want to know why women are less likely to have a financial plan for retirement?
Well I’ll tell you Garth. Too much testosterone on this blog.

How does that even make sense? – Garth

#21 MF on 02.08.18 at 6:16 pm

“#222 James on 02.08.18 at 3:50 pm
Explain that one today Donny baby? Did this guy ever go to school?

In the “old days,” when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good (great) news about the economy!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) Feb. 7, 2018”

-He is 100% correct. Everyone knows the market is simply a joke and has been going up endlessly largely because of cheap credit/zirp/QE/central bank stimulation.

I heard the “bad news is good news” theme back in 2012/13 when we had our first taper tantrum.

Accurate description indeed.

MF

As explained often, US markets have advanced on the back of record corporate profits, robust job creation and booming consumer confidence – now augmented by tax cuts. This long-term trend is far from over. – Garth

#22 Stan Brooks on 02.08.18 at 6:17 pm

Do I smell sexism?

Let’s castrate everyone and make T2 happy!
Of course wild bill will be exempt, he is supposed to screw up everyone from the plebs anyway.

#23 r on 02.08.18 at 6:17 pm

For Once I would like to read some good, happy post on this blog

Play it backwards. – Garth

#24 Not Screwed Millennial on 02.08.18 at 6:18 pm

It’s so shocking that born and raised Canadians are doing so poorly. My parents came here as immigrants from Eastern Europe and bought a house in the GTA. Scrimped, saved, never bought on credit, and are now retired at 57 and 62 after starting work in their late 30s, early 40s.

Shame on you Boomers who had the education and privilege of being born in a country like Canada that offers you the opportunity to really do something with your lives. I guess this is why the hate for immigrants is so real. They come, work, pay taxes, live frugally and instil those values in their children. Meanwhile most (not all, but it seems like the majority) of Canadian born Boomers blew their pay cheques on shit they didn’t need.

As I see it if you’re born in Canada you have a silver spoon in your mouth. Don’t like it? Then go to Siberia.

You are almost over the line. Don’t tempt me. – Garth

#25 OttawaMike on 02.08.18 at 6:18 pm

Most Canadians plan to work until noon on the day of their funerals.

#26 Andrew Woburn on 02.08.18 at 6:19 pm

The future looks like ever increasing production capacity plus ever decreasing consumer capacity equals one big political problem.

Cheer up, T2 is on it.

Meanwhile –

“First public-road test tomorrow of autonomous delivery vehicle”

“McKinsey estimates that 80 percent of all package deliveries will be autonomous in the next decade,” said Laury. “I am very proud that udelv will make history as the very first custom-made, public-road autonomous delivery vehicle.

https://www.lloydsloadinglist.com/freight-directory/news/First-public-road-test-tomorrow-of-autonomous-delivery-vehicle/71221.htm#.WnzYU6inGM9

#27 Kyle Griffin on 02.08.18 at 6:19 pm

It’s really not that hard, why are people so dumb. Great post

#28 Penny Henny on 02.08.18 at 6:21 pm

#20 Penny Henny on 02.08.18 at 6:14 pm
You want to know why women are less likely to have a financial plan for retirement?
Well I’ll tell you Garth. Too much testosterone on this blog.

How does that even make sense? – Garth
/////////////////

Let me explain.
If your female readership didn’t get turned off of this blog because of some of the dinks on here they would be more likely to keep on reading and following your advice.
But what would I know, I am a boy.

Solution: stop reading the comments. I did. – Garth

#29 Old Ron the Realtor on 02.08.18 at 6:21 pm

Gee Garth why so down ? I mean it is only a 10% correction. The market was over sold and did what markets do. Its healthy. I said the same thing about the TREB market last April, and it dropped around 20%.

As far taking care of older folks who are in need ? It is a good idea, and we can all afford it. Progressive countries have learned long ago that over all costs are actually lower when seniors at the bottom end of the ladder have basic needs met.

We are not talking about folks driving an Audi in Florida, we are talking about 70 somethings being able to afford the rent on their one bedroom apartment. It is part of what makes Canada a great country.

#30 Zapstrap on 02.08.18 at 6:22 pm

I’m just glad I’m a boomer. Nuff said.

#31 Midnights on 02.08.18 at 6:23 pm

RBC online brokerage clients unable to make trades just as Dow craters 1,000 points

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/rbc-online-brokerage-clients-unable-to-make-trades-just-as-dow-craters-1000-points/article37911844/

#32 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 6:24 pm

#13 Polymer on 02.08.18 at 6:08 pm
You forgot to mention that up in Canada we are getting destroyed by: food costs that are higher including bread price fixing. Cell phone plans that are outrageous.
……………………….

Wintering in the Philippines right now. Brand new Samsung Galaxy J2 Prime DUAL SIM cost 120 bucks. 30 day wifi sim card cost 25 bucks, 30 day talk and text cost 12 bucks, so i have portable wifi hotspot 24/7 that i can tether to my Ipad. What would that cost in Canada?……PS : CEO’s here don’t make 10 million a year.

#33 MF on 02.08.18 at 6:28 pm

A one-day assessment. Funny. – Garth

Hey at least you agree they went down.

Actually Bond funds like VAB have been going down since December. CPD for a month straight. CPD seems to be correlated with oil more the interest rates these days. Frustrating.

And are we not to expect bonds to behave normally anymore? As yields rise prices should fall.

If this actually is the great unwind we are all expecting, then we should see some further spikes as the CB’s try to sell the trillions of bonds they hold from QE and spike yields further. How could there not be a long term effect from this change in the interest rate cycle?

MF

#34 Y are my Bonds falling in Value? on 02.08.18 at 6:29 pm

Why are my Canada 10 year Bonds falling in value?! Did Poloz devalue our Loonie again?!!!!

#35 Doug t on 02.08.18 at 6:29 pm

I’m sure a psychoanalyst would say as a society people are controlled by fear more than perhaps ever before – it’s difficult to think rationally when your basically living pay check to paycheck and you have huge debt. The adage “live for today” also may be more in the psyche than previous generations –

RATM

#36 M on 02.08.18 at 6:30 pm

This one is just a hefty correction.
The big pa da boom is in 6 months when MARKET INDUCED INTEREST RATES GROWTH will start being felt.
To stop the disaster Feds will iunitiate QE infinity giving a dollar that will buy half a potatoe.
Whether that will stabilize the disaster remains to be seen since will create more of the same (since 2008).
This is the US.
…now…the northern gringo land is completely finished in any scenario. Think third world standard of living (Toronto for example does qualify for third world status re standard of living for 65% of its population).

While I am sure that US will bounce until the pa da boom (in the 3rd qtr) I doubt that Canadian market will do. In a week or two we’ll be at the level we were in September (by the way…what the hell happened in sept that pushed canadian securities on a bump anyway ? There was no better economy…)
Enjoy the fun and play the VIX wisely. Strips and straps should give 5 to 1 to 100 to 1 for violent mover will continue for the foreseeable future.
there are only 2 solutions (and one is just band aid):
1. QE
2. a jubilee
…when one thinks that 10yr treasury bond yield is actually negative in real terms one can only keep laughing.

There is tremendous opportunity in disasters and this one is a whopper. I am drooling and the last 2 weeks showed me right.

#37 Guy in Calgary on 02.08.18 at 6:32 pm

Crashing and burning. -10% we are officially in a correction. Risk tolerances will be tested, many will fail. At least it’s not a huge amount but still:

“This 24-year-old Vancouver man put a big stock market bet on his credit card ”

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/10k-lost-in-a-day-this-24-year-old-vancouver-man-put-a-big-stock-market-bet-on-his-credit-card-1.3795451

#38 Ismael on 02.08.18 at 6:33 pm

How much balance should one have distributed amongst accounts?

Is it unreasonable to have a TFSA with 100% canadian equity, while the RRSP has 100% international equity and canadian REITs, then all that other “safe” stuff is in a non-registered account which gets a dividend tax credit. Sure I am around a 60%/40% split, but my particular accounts aren’t as balanced.

#39 Linda on 02.08.18 at 6:33 pm

I think those who have saved nothing either believe the money will magically appear when they need it, either via a lottery ticket, inheritance or government largesse. Remember reading about a survey where the question put to various young adults was what they thought they’d receive in CPP/OAS. A rather large number of the young people surveyed estimated between $25,000 to $40,000 per annum (this was back late 1990’s or early 2000’s). Most were very shocked when told what they’d actually receive if they worked long enough & contributed enough to receive ‘maximum’ CPP.

Now, maybe young adults aged 18-25 today might receive as much $25,000 in annual CPP when they reach the age of 65. With the current maximum past the half way point ($13,300 or so), surely CPP will be up around $25,000 forty years from now. Whether the age one can apply for & receive CPP will remain the same as today may be another story.

As for the financially challenged aging population of today, not quite sure why so many are so ill prepared or are relying essentially on luck or a miracle to save them. Perhaps they didn’t expect to live long enough to have to worry about retirement or would have a company pension plan. Maybe they did have a company pension plan for all the good it did them (Sears, Air Canada, Nortel etc.). My point being, perhaps at least some of these folks did plan, but the plan got derailed by unforeseen circumstances.

#40 jim on 02.08.18 at 6:33 pm

Crazy markets right now. REITs were cratering before, the NASDAQ is schlocked, but NVIDIA and SNAP are up heavy on meagre earnings. (Nvidia, which is a company that I have a great amount of respect for, is basically being propped up by cryptocurrency mining).

I have a significant cash position that I am slowly moving into the market. Not sure if this downturn will last a week or longer, but I’ve been waiting for it for quite a while. Last significant downturn was Brexit, if I recall.

Lots of capital flowing out of the USA and into Japan and other markets. It will be interesting to see if panic selling sets in, as in the Brexit downturn. If so, bargains galore.

PS: REITs are really cheap right now.

#41 tccontrarian on 02.08.18 at 6:34 pm

“As explained often, US markets have advanced on the back of record corporate profits, robust job creation and booming consumer confidence – now augmented by tax cuts. This long-term trend is far from over.” – Garth
======================================

$100,000 says the Dow is going <12,000 in 36 months or less!
I know someone willing to make this bet. Any takers?

TCC

#42 Nemesis on 02.08.18 at 6:35 pm

#ThursdayMischief,Or… #SubsidenceLiving?

…”universal retirement incomes that will provide subsidence living”… SubterraneanGT

There’s an historical precedent for that:

https://tinyurl.com/y9dh9kd6

#43 Would Like To Know on 02.08.18 at 6:36 pm

Garth, thank you for the reply. Was really interested in the 3 year return. We are at 4%.

Then you don’t have a proper balanced, diversified portfolio. – Garth

#44 jim on 02.08.18 at 6:36 pm

#31

“RBC online brokerage clients unable to make trades just as Dow craters 1,000 points”

Why anyone would use RBC for trading is beyond me. Interactive Brokers is available in Canada, and I haven’t heard reports of Questrade crapping out.

The Canadian banks are 100% incompetent. Saw a posting a while back where some bank wanted to get PhD students to develop their anti-fraud system (anti-money laundering). Yes, these are banks with record profits using cheap grad student labour to develop key systems. Complete retards, the lot of them.

#45 chopstix on 02.08.18 at 6:37 pm

wow, one big must read today in Maclean’s magazine on Scamcouver:
http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/the-battle-to-clean-up-b-c/
“The battle to clean up B.C.”
Terry Glavin on the efforts to undo a decade of indifference that turned Vancouver into an epicentre of fraud, scams and real estate mani

#46 Bob Dog on 02.08.18 at 6:40 pm

Excellent job laying out the various acts of financial terrorism carried out by a corrupt puppet government against 99% of the Canadian population.

Now tell us what will actually happen when the wheels fall off. Will the 1% go live on mars?

#47 Cottingham a bargain on 02.08.18 at 6:40 pm

“… fear and loathing in housing”

Seriously lol. Pretty sure the first two are accurate but the last one on housing yiu slipped in , well a far cry.

All today in the financial markets will do is reinforce the notion that if all goes to hell in a hand basket at least I have a roof over my head.

Seriously, I have nothing against financial market investors although I have no need or want for it but after today and what looks to be another brutal fall tomorrow , how do you guys do it ?

#48 Long Branch Apprentice on 02.08.18 at 6:45 pm

Look around you. How many people among you can do math?

http://www.etfo.ca/BuildingAJustSociety/EquityResources/Pages/SocialJustice.aspx

It ain’t gonna get better either,

GTFO of Ontario.

USD about to take off, prepare accordingly.

#49 Double Bottom on 02.08.18 at 6:46 pm

re #3 Penny Henny

oh yeah. we got us a correction.
Dec 18 went 60% cash.
Feb 8 now 34% cash.

************************

Are you saying you’ve bought the dip and reduced the cash?

#50 Guy in Calgary on 02.08.18 at 6:49 pm

#12 MF on 02.08.18 at 6:07 pm

Is your comment a troll? Are you assessing portfolio performance on one day? The idea is that a balanced portfolio will go down less then the market. A balanced portfolio after today, has not given back 10%. I have given back 6% ish with an aggressive allocation (due to age).

Balance is there to rid of volatility (relative to the market) which is done over a good sample size. Not on day lol.

#51 Long Branch Apprentice on 02.08.18 at 6:53 pm

Never gamble? Don’t be such a prude Garth.

#52 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 6:54 pm

#24 Not Screwed Millennial on 02.08.18 at 6:18 pm

Meanwhile most (not all, but it seems like the majority) of Canadian born Boomers blew their pay cheques on shit they didn’t need.
………………………

You don’t know what you are talking about. My first mortgage was at 14%, my brother had to renew at 20%. 25% down payment. I made about 12 bucks an hour at the time.Govt. child benefit was about 60 bucks a month for 2 kids and we were not allowed to use kids as dependents for tax purposes. Made it thru a couple of big recessions along the way. Jobs were scarce, credit was tight. It wasn’t as easy as u seem to think.

#53 LivinLarge on 02.08.18 at 6:59 pm

“How does that even make sense? – Garth”…actually it does sorta make sense. Convoluted? Yea but still logical.

More women might have financial plans if they read this blog more often but to read the comments they have to wade hip deep through the chest beating testosterone addled loons to get anywhere so they, well, don’t.

#54 Convenient Amnesia on 02.08.18 at 6:59 pm

When Trump was campaigning in 2016 for President , he said that the stock market was a “phony, fantastic, stock market bubble” at Dow 18,000. Fast forward to the end of January 2018 the Dow was up over 40% from the time he was elected to > 26,600 and was bragging about it all the time ?

#55 steph on 02.08.18 at 7:00 pm

Garth,

I don’t want to be a critic, I like your blog and been a follower since many many years.

Butt…

Yesterday you said a few things I don’t agree with and that I would love to hear your rational:

1. Smart people don’t buy individual stock;
2. Tesla is over valuated.

Your arguments about the housing market are solid and consistent, always detailed with charts, data.

But these two statements you made yesterday are puzzling, I’d like to believe you, but please, could you shed a bit more light so I could understand such strong statements.

Thank-you.

#56 TheSecretCode on 02.08.18 at 7:00 pm

Garth, what are the contents of that 60/40 mix?

#57 Juve101 on 02.08.18 at 7:00 pm

#22
Hear hear!

#58 dgb on 02.08.18 at 7:02 pm

#7jungle 32%of men with a plan(=78%men without a plan)
—-as apposed to—-
78%of women without a plan(=32% women with a plan)

kind of the same to me or is there an error here Garth????????????

#59 Dave M on 02.08.18 at 7:03 pm

Given all this data and my propensity for thrift, prudence and general cheapness, is it safe to assume that I’ll live like a king someday? I hope so because everyone else is having a LOT more fun than me.

#60 SCD on 02.08.18 at 7:04 pm

Hi Garth, I really enjoy this blog. I’m a female who has been interested in financial planning for quite a number of years (we do exist). I’m wondering what your thoughts are on the unemployment vs. the S & P 500 index chart in the following article:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-31/signs-of-old-age-abound-in-a-bull-market-closing-in-on-history

#61 TheSecretCode on 02.08.18 at 7:05 pm

Garth’s name coming up in the twitter lines…people are paying attention to this site.

And check out what Macleans just wrote…must read:

“We knew there was something strange going on, but, my God, we had no idea it was this big,” Eby said. British Columbia had (has) become reduced to “a jurisdiction where the rules do not apply to white collar crime, fraud, tax evasion and money laundering, where even if the rules do apply, enforcement is absent.”

Now, with Robertson on his way out, and his Vision Vancouver party a ruined brand, whoever comes out on top in the October civic elections will be left to deal with what’s become of the place. Vancouver is now a kind of free trade zone for gangland money launderers, absentee offshore real-estate speculators, Chinese princelings on the lam and globe-trotting tax frauds. Metro Vancouver is an international housing-affordability basket case and the epicentre of Canada’s fentanyl overdose crisis. Over the past decade, homelessness has doubled, at least 4,000 people are sleeping rough in the streets, and there are now 70 homeless camps across the region.

Their words, not mine…nailed it Macleans…

http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/the-battle-to-clean-up-b-c/

#62 kommykim on 02.08.18 at 7:05 pm

Tommy,
You should be able to get 1% on your cash. Watch the early redemption fees. Check out this link:
http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/high-interest-savings-accounts-at-discount-brokers/

RE: #15 Tommy Douglas on 02.08.18 at 6:11 pm
Question for the blog, if I am supposed to have 5% cash balance as a ‘defensive’ position, should i be putting this in a money market etf? My direct trading account does not pay interest on cash balance. Thanks for any suggestions.

#63 TheSecretCode on 02.08.18 at 7:13 pm

Rally for Affordable Housing on Feb.18, 2018 – Vancouver, BC.

1885 people are signed on…

Will the NDP pull the trigger on any of the following?

– 2% Speculation Tax (BCHAF – BC Housing Affordability Fund);

– Set up a Special Task force in Real Estate for 1) Money Laundering, 2) Speculation, 3) Tax Evasion/Avoidance, 4) Fraud and 5) Unethical practices by realtors;

– Work with Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) to tackle tax evasion/money laundering and ensure individuals declare their worldwide income;

– Cancel BC Home Owner Mortgage and Equity Partnership

– Ban Developers and Realtors from marketing homes overseas

– Close Bare Trust Loophole

– Impose Foreign Buyer’s Tax on all pre-sales

– Restriction on Airbnb and expand empty homes tax throughout Metro Vancouver

– Require potential buyers to register with the government and declare all sources of income

– End ALR farmland speculation and eliminate mega mansions

– Transparency of all sales of homes

– ENFORCEMENT (fines, suspensions, criminal charges, etc)

#64 dgb on 02.08.18 at 7:15 pm

oops my error…….#16 has the correct #’s sorry

#65 Rexx Rock on 02.08.18 at 7:21 pm

Was in Da Nang Vietnam and met a Australian in hisi mid 40s.Been there 5 years and loving it
Does”nt want to feed the tax beast back home and escape the rat race.Unbelievable cheap,even for the Canadian Peso.

#66 HD on 02.08.18 at 7:22 pm

Well….I’m back after a long hiatus. What did I miss?

Just passing by anyway.

I shut off all distraction to pursue a CFA designation. That thing is hard. Cleared the Dec 2017 exam and now prepping for the June 2018 Level 2 exam. It is taking everything out of me. I never worked in the Financial Industry but thinking of a career change. I love that stuff and this blog inspired me to do something about it.

Best,

HD

#67 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.08.18 at 7:24 pm

International investors are being urged to steer clear of banks in Australia, Canada and Sweden by a leading investment consultancy

A banking sector that accounted for 20% of total market capitalization was a “danger signal” in developed markets as major economies have not been able to “sustain” such a large financial sector.

ASR cited Japan in the 1990s, the United Kingdom in 2003-04 and the eurozone in 2007 as instances when banks had reached one fifth of their respective equity markets only to fall sharply in value.

https://financialtribune.com/articles/world-economy/81502/australia-canada-sweden-banks-may-pose-global-systemic-threat

#68 cecil on 02.08.18 at 7:28 pm

Reality is people are a lot poorer than they think.

Debt and virtue signalling hide the difference until it can’t be avoided.

ITs a Potemkin village of prosperity.

#69 Long Branch Apprentice on 02.08.18 at 7:31 pm

Legitimate question to any of the knowledgables out there: how did USDCAD react during the fall of 2008 when everything was collapsing before our eyes. It seems like there was flight to USD for safety but can any of you grey bearded blog dogs confirm this?

I was but a greenhorn during the GFC, and knew little of what was actually happening until later on.

#70 Stone on 02.08.18 at 7:31 pm

#3 Penny Henny on 02.08.18 at 5:50 pm
oh yeah. we got us a correction.
Dec 18 went 60% cash.
Feb 8 now 34% cash.

——-

Congrats. I rebalanced my portfolio 50/50 equity/fixed income December 18, 2017. Currently just below break-even including distributions since then. Your plan gained you next to nothing versus having your money invested during that time. Yawn. Garth’s right. Sitting in so much cash is pointless. If markets had nosedived 20-30% and you’d done that, I would have called you a genius. Now, lets see what you do with the other 34%. That could be interesting.

#71 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 02.08.18 at 7:32 pm

SHYSTER AL on CP24 trying to spin like a filthy dirty SHYSTER. SHYSTER says you have to be positive to sell houses. Lol so you dirty lying POGarbage are putting a happy positive spin so you can sell houses? These filty scum of useless lying sacks of poop cant even hide the fact they are lying [email protected]

#72 -=jwk=- on 02.08.18 at 7:33 pm

Wintering in the Philippines right now. Brand new Samsung Galaxy J2 Prime DUAL SIM cost 120 bucks. 30 day wifi sim card cost 25 bucks, 30 day talk and text cost 12 bucks, so i have portable wifi hotspot 24/7 that i can tether to my Ipad. What would that cost in Canada?……PS : CEO’s here don’t make 10 million a year.

Your phone is a piece of junk – slower than the slowest phone sold in Canada with a crappylow res screen. And I pay $35/mo for a plan with koodo the same as yours. And I live in a country with a murder rate less than 1/5th of the phillipines, and there is no war with the muslims in the south of my country and there weren’t 12,000 deaths of ‘drug users’ gunned down in the streets….like of all the warm places you picked the phillipines?!? 10 years ago, before duerte, sure. but now? was the flight that cheap?

#73 Capt. Serious on 02.08.18 at 7:34 pm

At an average 7% return after 30 years it sums $532,000 (of which 376,000 is growth).

That’s in nominal terms, right?

How could it be otherwise? – Garth

#74 ANON on 02.08.18 at 7:36 pm

Canadians who have no idea if they’re saving enough (but doubt it): 53%

Yeah, I know, they pooled me about that also. When you see those prices going for like: save 10%, I go like: you have to buy like 10 items or even more to save some serious money. Not everyone has enough space to deposit that much stuff!
/s (or not).

#75 Reality is stark on 02.08.18 at 7:40 pm

Let’s talk real estate losses for those who bought at the peak. If you paid 1.3 million in Markham you will be looking at $700,000 by the end of April, a $600,000 hit. However that is not the end of the pain. The $800,000 mortgage has to be paid at double your previous rate. In Canada you can’t just give the bank your keys.
Once she realizes what under water means the divorce proceeding starts. That is when the major losses come to the forefront. Just because she wants a bigger house you don’t have to jump off a bridge because someone else thinks it’s a good idea.

#76 Guy in Calgary on 02.08.18 at 7:40 pm

#66 HD on 02.08.18 at 7:22 pm

Congrats on passing CFA1! Great accomplishment. Friends tell me that the level 2 is where people either give up or get their designation (IT’S REALLY HARD). Best of luck to you and have fun making sweet love to your BAII calculator for the next 6 months :)

#77 under the radar on 02.08.18 at 7:43 pm

Its all about the amount you have saved and invested and what kind of future living standard you will have. This is the point of being long term and balanced to achieve growth over a long period of time. Be diversified, be frugal , live below your means , get out of debt.

#78 45north on 02.08.18 at 7:44 pm

Michael King: The Financial Times has a new unsettling article titled
“Canada’s housing market flirts with disaster”.

here’s the link:
https://www.ft.com/content/8cb9f0fa-0a61-11e8-839d-41ca06376bf2

from the link:

Ben McLannahan:

Laurentian Bank, Canada’s seventh-biggest by assets, said in December that it would have to buy back about C$300m of mortgages it had sold to third parties, having found that borrowers had “embellished” income and assets. Last month, the Montreal-based bank said the buyback obligations had increased to about C$400m, and it would have to raise more capital.

sounds a lot like the US when the housing bubble burst

#79 Christopher Mewhort, EA on 02.08.18 at 7:44 pm

“As this situation festers you can bet politicians will try to ‘fix’ things by increasing taxes more in order to fund universal retirement incomes that will provide subsidence living for millions of surprised seniors.” Agreed, Mr. Turner. May I ask your opinion on opt-out pensions? To try and increase the participation rate?

Christopher Mewhort, EA

I’m in! – Garth

#80 PastThePeak on 02.08.18 at 7:46 pm

Canada is in worse shape than Garth outlined. But the vast majority of the population don’t know it. In addition to the savings issue, housing issues, and consumer debt issues, we also have:

– All levels of gov’t running deficits in, economically, a good time (best in last 10 years by some measures). That points to significant structural deficits. After the next recession, expect some runaway deficits like back in the Mulroney days, where it took the addition of GST + great 90’s post cold war growth + huge cost costs to square things away. Except this time the GST/HST already exists, personal income taxes are already high, and all gov’ts in Canada have gone left and would only do symbolic cuts.

– Build nothing anywhere mentality. Literally only sunshine and the wind (+ maybe fairy dust) will power the economy.

– Gov’ts that believe diversity and good intentions will win business. That believe only raising taxes can save us.

So, the Canadian consumer is pooched, and trade isn’t looking so great. Resource projects not happening in this country. Adjust your balanced portfolio accordingly (reducing Canadian equity exposure perhaps…).

#81 Moira Drosdovech on 02.08.18 at 7:47 pm

http://www.lode.one for those curious about a real monetary system

#82 NOTHING SURPRISES on 02.08.18 at 7:51 pm

Two items:

This should provide an annual income of $37,000, tax-free. Add in CPP and OAS, and the total is $55,000 – no taxes – Garth.

*********************************************

(1) How can you have a $55,000 yearly income and pay no taxes ?

(2) The U.S. dollar is in trouble. It’s down 10% over the past year and is trading at its lowest level since December 2014.
It’s likely to keep plunging. In fact, one of the world’s top research firms thinks the dollar may not recover until 2025.

What affect is this going to have on the economise of Canada and the U.S. ?

(1) TFSA income is untaxed. (2) a lower US dollar is bullish for that economy. – Garth

#83 TheSecretCode on 02.08.18 at 7:53 pm

Hey Ontario:

Christy is coming to give a speech for the Ontario Real Estate Association.

Expert analysis on Panda Bonds and .gov work around measures to pump RE prices to the moon.

Yeah this Christy:

“Christy Clark’s six-year tenure as the Liberal Party premier ended under a cloud of RCMP investigations into payments from lobbyists and an ethnic-vote harvesting scandal. A trove of incriminating paper trails only now coming to light shows Clark’s Liberals knew very well what was happening.”

Any jail time?

#84 lol on 02.08.18 at 7:56 pm

$100,000 says the Dow is going <12,000 in 36 months or less!
I know someone willing to make this bet. Any takers?

TCC

………..

stop, internet tough guy. Come 36 months this cartoon character forgot he ever wrote this.

#85 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.08.18 at 7:57 pm

Measuring the Bubble

“Last week, the U.S. equity market climbed to the steepest valuation level in history, based on the valuation measures most highly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 10-12 year total returns, across a century of market cycles. These measures include the S&P 500 price/revenue ratio, the Margin-Adjusted CAPE (our more reliable variant of Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted P/E), and MarketCap/GVA – the ratio of nonfinancial market capitalization to corporate gross value-added, including estimated foreign revenues – which is easily the most reliable valuation measure we’ve ever created or tested, among scores of alternatives.”

“From present levels of valuation, we fully expect the S&P 500 to lose value, on a total return basis, over the coming 12-year horizon.”

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180201/
_____________________________________________

This looks interesting, but the historical data doesn’t include the effect of quantitative easing. Perhaps this yuge increase in the money supply will cause valuation measures to be temporarily useless, until the Fed unwinds its position.

#86 You weasel! on 02.08.18 at 8:02 pm

@ #11 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 6:05 pm

You kiss-ass little weasel! Be a man and post insults like the rest of us!

#87 Yorkville Renter on 02.08.18 at 8:02 pm

I love statistics like the ones in this post because they make me feel 50% happier about 90% of the time… I hang out with wildly successful people, so atleast I know I’m doing better than most (but not better than most of my friends)

#88 MPACI on 02.08.18 at 8:08 pm

blog dogs, how much of your take home pay or gross pay does everyone save for retirement?

My wife and I save just over 20%, we’re in are late 30’s – is that enough?

#89 End Chivalry on 02.08.18 at 8:10 pm

#16 None

Women live longer and have a greater need for a plan than men. I was trying to get the reader’s attention. It worked. – Garth

————

Women live longer because stupid men choose all the dirty/filthy/toxic jobs (sewer maintenance, slaughter houses, construction, steelmaking, etc) so their women can stay clean, healthy, and live longer. #notanymore #endchivalry #treateveryonelikemen

#90 Keith in Rio on 02.08.18 at 8:12 pm

Why would anyone with a functioning brain want to retire in “Kanaduh” ?

You can live a great life in one of several other countries far away, for a small fraction of the amount of money you will need to stay in “Kanaduh”…….there are lots of places where it’s warm every single day, a simple home will cost you $100K, and your biggest expense will be flip flops and t-shirts.

The sooner you realise that you are going to die, and that nothing you can do will change that fact, and that includes staying in Canada, the sooner you can start living.

#91 Steve on 02.08.18 at 8:13 pm

I’m trying to figure out when I could have saved any money at all… there was literally only about 100$ left after every paycheck once we paid all the bills and bought groceries. We had a maddeningly restrictive budget that accounted for every cent, every payday. That 100$ usually was spent on random problems like worn out shoes or antibiotics. This is with my wife and I working, and two screamers. I remember my wife asking me to go over our budget together because she wanted to see if we could change anything to free up more cash. It took about 10 minutes to realize that there would be exactly the same exact amount of money pretty much every payday and exactly the same bills. So I humbly ask this question: “short of picking up cans with a homemade gaff, working even more and more overtime, or reengineering my origins with time travel to give myself rich parents, where do savings come from?” In our experience there is never an extra buck anywhere that hasn’t already been triple spoken for. The actual problem isn’t financial ineptitude. The problem is low wages, and everything costs too much. That’s it. One quarter of all the residents of my area live in poverty or very close to it. Most of the poor people I know are work animals. They work too much. They have squat. Short of having a money miracle occur they are perma-pooched. No bloated rich parents, no way up the clogged work ladder, no hope. Just more and more labour on a hamster wheel with hammered out bearings screeching out the song of despair. So you lot tell me and my ilk how to grow crops in salt.

#92 Blackdog on 02.08.18 at 8:14 pm

Re #20: “You want to know why women are less likely to have a financial plan for retirement?
Well I’ll tell you Garth. Too much testosterone on this blog.

How does that even make sense? – Garth ”

I believe that is her way of complimenting you Garth. What she is saying (I think), is that your blog is a financial life saver, but women are too afraid to hang around here.

#93 Interstellar Old Yeller on 02.08.18 at 8:15 pm

#66 HD on 02.08.18 at 7:22 pm

HD! Nice to hear from you. Congrats on passing the level 1 exam, good luck on level 2!

What have you missed? A few rounds of Garth realizing we commenters are dorks, but ultimately deciding to let us keep commenting, anyway. :-)

———-

#23 r on 02.08.18 at 6:17 pm
For Once I would like to read some good, happy post on this blog

Ha! Just ask the blog dogs to tell you how rich and smart they are. You’ll get reams of rosy financial stories, some possibly even true!

#94 sleepingdragon on 02.08.18 at 8:15 pm

Much money out there chasing too few cookies and crumbs. The only humankind that outlive women are well off bachelors.

#95 Mark on 02.08.18 at 8:18 pm

“(1) TFSA income is untaxed. (2) a lower US dollar is bullish for that economy. – Garth”

(2), careful. A good chunk of the US “economy” is based on importing stuff and retailing it. As well as providing domestic services. If the USD$ falls, imports will become a lot more expensive and a good chunk of the US economy that is devoted to importing stuff will falter.

Manufacturing, mining, and the oil and gas industry would benefit, but what percentage are both of the S&P500? A few percent? Not all that significant compared to the sheer size of the FIRE and other consumptive sectors which heavily rely upon low interest rates for their survival. A weak dollar implies higher interest rates as investors demand additional compensation to hold a depreciating currency.

A weak dollar, thus is significantly negative for the US economy. This is intuitively obvious, we’ve had “strong dollar” policy since the 1980s, and the US economy has outperformed its global peers. Thus it logically follows that the US economy will underperform its global peers during in a weak dollar, and hence, higher interest rate era.

#96 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 8:18 pm

#86 You weasel! on 02.08.18 at 8:02 pm
@ #11 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 6:05 pm

You kiss-ass little weasel! Be a man and post insults like the rest of us!
……………………….

Kiss mine u moron. And give credit where credit is due.

#97 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 8:28 pm

#72 -=jwk=- on 02.08.18 at 7:33 pm
Wintering in the Philippines right now. Brand new Samsung Galaxy J2 Prime DUAL SIM cost 120 bucks. 30 day wifi sim card cost 25 bucks, 30 day talk and text cost 12 bucks, so i have portable wifi hotspot 24/7 that i can tether to my Ipad. What would that cost in Canada?……PS : CEO’s here don’t make 10 million a year.

Your phone is a piece of junk – slower than the slowest phone sold in Canada with a crappylow res screen. And I pay $35/mo for a plan with koodo the same as yours. And I live in a country with a murder rate less than 1/5th of the phillipines, and there is no war with the muslims in the south of my country and there weren’t 12,000 deaths of ‘drug users’ gunned down in the streets….like of all the warm places you picked the phillipines?!? 10 years ago, before duerte, sure. but now? was the flight that cheap?
……………………….

4G dual SIM Samsung Galaxy, better than anything u own. And i have a 35.00 Koodoo account too but it does not give me 24/7 wifi tethering for that price. How is the weather these days ?

#98 Samson Nights on 02.08.18 at 8:31 pm

“Another troublesome finding from the CIBC poll is 30 per cent of respondents said they have no retirement savings and 19 per cent have saved less than $50,000”
– Pattie Lovett-Reid

Always comical to listen to the well-to-do Starbucks & Muffin crowd like Pattie Lovett-Reid lecturing the less fortunate of society about a lack of retirement planning.

Meanwhile, Ultra High Net Worth KMPG tax dodgers get a free amnesty pass while the single moms get burned at the CRA stake.

The system is rigged and everyone lower class Canadian knows it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-revenue-kpmg-secret-amnesty-1.3479594

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cra-tax-single-moms-benefits-1.4457218

The CRA apologized to five women for an error. Seems responsible. – Garth

#99 Ace Goodheart on 02.08.18 at 8:36 pm

This is one sweet correction. Everything is on sale.

Canadian Chartered banks going right now for 13/1 price to earnings.

Corus has a 13.5 % dividend and 8.64 P/E.

I found a bunch more fairly well known companies today with negative price to book values.

The human herd instinct seriously makes me rich, time after time. People are dumping very good, profitable, well capitalised companies, with basically no knowledge of what they’re doing. They are seriously going to cash on a market downturn. Maybe they’ll all buy GICs at 1.8% interest (works for me, just gives the big five chartered banks higher earnings because you give them money basically for free).

Oh well. As I continue to load up on over sold, under priced and just plain ridiculously undervalued equities, I noticed that my bond ETFs are all back in the green with slight percentage increases (just a little nudge here and there, but they are coming up like baby lettuce in my vegetable garden).

#100 Smoking Man on 02.08.18 at 8:42 pm

Butts now calling Canadians who oppose T2 Nazis.

Haha.. I’ll need to add that designation to my Dr Smoking Man title. Usually when it heats up in the kitchen he’s talking sports. He’s knows T2 fd up huge. And he’s come out swing to protect his 500k year do nothing gig.

In the mean time T2 is over at Facebook on his hands and knees begging the Zuck to censor opposition Facebook. Calling it remove fake news.

Bahahahaha…..logic is winning for a change.

Call up the bookies and short T2 and Wynne while the odds are huge in your favor.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics
Nazi according to the man named after an ass.

#101 common sense on 02.08.18 at 8:51 pm

As always, thanks once again for the reality check Garth.

May god bless the unfortunate…they are going to need it.

#102 Nemesis on 02.08.18 at 8:51 pm

@HD#66… #AfterYourCFA2,Or… #TheBayStreetLife?

https://youtu.be/RW4-mtpthwA

;)

#103 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.08.18 at 8:54 pm

#99 Ace Goodheart on 02.08.18 at 8:36 pm
This is one sweet correction. Everything is on sale.

Corus has a 13.5 % dividend and 8.64 P/E.
_______________________________________________

This stock’s 13-per-cent yield is a huge red flag

Even before the sell-off, Corus was yielding more than 10 per cent, a level that should have given investors a bad case of sweaty palms. Now, the yield has climbed to more than 13 per cent, which screams “danger.” If you think you can earn 13 per cent without the risk of further share price declines, a dividend cut, or both, I have some oceanfront property in Saskatchewan to sell you.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/why-coruss-13-per-cent-yield-is-a-huge-red-flag/article37625020/

#104 Huckleberry on 02.08.18 at 8:57 pm

#41 tccontrarian

$100,000 says the Dow is going <12,000 in 36 months or less!
I know someone willing to make this bet. Any takers?

TCC

——————-

I'm your huckleberry….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plD1MbOGLfQ

Are you serious about your comment? So if the DJIA stays at 12,000 pts or higher over the next 36 months you lose. If at any point it closes at 11,999 or less you win. Am I understanding this bet correctly? At you talking about closing price or intraday price? If I were to take this bet it would need to be closing prices because the spike down on an intraday will be too easily manipulated.

This is a seriously intriguing bet. It would probably cost around $5k to have a lawyer draft the paperwork and set up an account.

Are you pulling our leg or you being serious?

#105 Long-Time Lurker on 02.08.18 at 9:07 pm

#34 Y are my Bonds falling in Value? on 02.08.18 at 6:29 pm

Why are my Canada 10 year Bonds falling in value?! Did Poloz devalue our Loonie again?!!!!

>Interest rates go up and existing principle value goes down.

#55 steph on 02.08.18 at 7:00 pm

>
1. Smart people don’t buy individual stock;
(Nortel, Enron)
2. Tesla is over valuated.
(Nowhere near profitable. Long-term gamble)

#106 dr. talc on 02.08.18 at 9:10 pm

The system is rigged and everyone lower class Canadian knows it.

—–
Agreed.
Tax code should use clear, precise, and unambiguous language; CRA uses words like: usually, generally, which has no place in law, but tax lawyers and accountants don’t say boo. Worse than that was Morneau’s retroactive changes in 2016: tyranny.

#107 down_boy on 02.08.18 at 9:11 pm

#69 Long Branch

Search ’10 year usd/cad chart’. Click images. I recall riding Cad to par shortly before 2008 then bailed…it’s foggy now.

#17 Michael King on 02.08.18 at 6:13 pm
The Financial Times has a new unsettling article […] Cat food on white bread toast is going to be very popular.

I hear “Grandpa’s Favorite” is good.

#108 Fuzzy Camel on 02.08.18 at 9:12 pm

Was only 50% invested since 2017 November, 20k profits gone and just about to start losing. I’d been wanting to max out my wife’s TFSA and thank god for this correction. Also sold my house and have been renting since last year, doubled my money and can write off rent better.

This position is awesome, if the stock market fully crashes I have a ton of money to buy up cheap shares and real estate will crash too, so I can get another house at a steep discount.

If the market rallies I make tax free money while real estate flat lines or drops. Garth you are a genius.

Gotta play to win in any scenario. I hope this crash keeps going, I might lose a little money but those who have big debt via mortgage will go broke as the economy tanks. Keep diversified and don’t speculate on real estate into a damn rising rate cycle.

#109 IHCTD9 on 02.08.18 at 9:18 pm

#59 Dave M on 02.08.18 at 7:03 pm

Given all this data and my propensity for thrift, prudence and general cheapness, is it safe to assume that I’ll live like a king someday? I hope so because everyone else is having a LOT more fun than me
——————

If you’re not properly investing the proceeds of your thrift, then no – you won’t live like a king someday.

Most folks I know that have lots of “fun”, and like to talk about “quality of life”; spend borrowed money to buy stuff and experiences.

That’s not real fun at all. Behind all the happy smiles is the eventual knowledge that they’ve screwed themselves good and hard. Then comes the understanding there’s no fixing it at this point in the game.

Once you get older, you’ll see the dynamics change. Those that had all the “fun” remain silent while others discuss early retirement activities, tax avoidance strategies, and market returns.

If you need to convince yourself, liquidate 20k or so worth of your investments and blow it on “fun” stuff. Then do a cost benefit analysis a year later. Then you’ll know first hand you can’t buy happiness, and fun is short lived.

I had a 40k emergency fund at one point built over 15 years, but never used due to handling anything that came up on my own. I decided to blow a fat slice of it on toys. Fun for a year or so, that’s about it. Now the toys blend right in with all the other stuff sitting in the garage.

My portfolio however, puts a big smile on my face every time I think about it. It’s been great fun, and the more I shovel in there, the more fun I get out of it!

#110 Walter Safety on 02.08.18 at 9:22 pm

“Twenty three years ago I wrote a book forecasting a retirement crisis about now”

You were a doomer ?

Merely a clairvoyant. Like now. – Garth

#111 Darren on 02.08.18 at 9:27 pm

2015 after the ….
Read it when I was a young lad.
I was one of the things that made me want to take care of things.
Plan ahead.
It worked out ok.

#112 45north on 02.08.18 at 9:28 pm

Shared Services:

James Bagnall:

Could cloud services signal the end of ‘big zombie IT projects’ in government?

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/bagnall-could-cloud-services-signal-the-end-of-big-zombie-it-projects-in-government

it signals the end of big zombie government departments such as Shared Services

And there’s the other matter of security. Most of the government’s data is secret (a Protected B or higher classification), and Shared Services still has a monopoly over storing this information. Wednesday’s announcement was for unclassified stuff such as government websites that are to be viewed by the public.

such as the Canadian Soil Information Service:

http://sis.agr.gc.ca/cansis/index.html

For 30 years, I helped maintain the Canadian Soil Information System. The biggest cost is the Common-Look-and-Feel standards set by Treasury Board. Treasury Board doesn’t care if the data are incomplete or wrong – it cares only about its standards. Treasury Board and senior managers at Agriculture Canada have threatened to take the site down. In fairness other senior managers have refused to take it down. This is a battle that is being fought across the government. Content providers such as the Canadian Soil Information Service are losing.

Private contractors are suspicious that Shared Services is relying on security designations to retain its share of the government’s IT business..

If you look at it from the point of view of Revenue Canada – it runs its own IT infrastructure. Shared Services is promising to replace the IT infrastructure with its own. Why should Revenue Canada trust Shared Services any more than a cloud supplier?

#113 Robert B on 02.08.18 at 9:31 pm

Cramer said it best

As for the wild market action, the former hedge-fund manager blamed a ”group of complete morons” trading leveraged volatility products for “blowing up” everything.

I think he is referring to the VIX/XIV trade

Here’s his rant..

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jim-cramer-blames-a-group-of-complete-morons-for-blowing-up-the-market-2018-02-08

#114 Leo Trollstoy on 02.08.18 at 9:39 pm

Imma help millenials retire… get a tech job… tons of demand… where? Try these hot spots

https://www.geekwire.com/2018/report-average-tech-worker-salary-seattle-hits-132k-making-city-top-spot-relocation/

#115 Another Deckchair on 02.08.18 at 9:43 pm

@91 Steve;

“I’m trying to figure out when I could have saved any money at all…”

Where’s it going? I *realize* that it tough, as most all of us have been there. And, those who haven’t can’t understand.

IMHO, maximize income is tougher; minimizing where money goes is easier. Note, I did not say easy, it’s just easier.

Phone plans? (basic or with a data plan?) Netflix? Booze? Other “additives”? Cars to get to/from work? Taking lunch to work, or picking it up? Make your own coffee, or pick one up? What can you share with others? Kids toys and clothes – where do they come from? How much food goes out in garbage? Have a good look at what goes out – anything wasted is money out of your pocket.

Do both of you have to work, or would it be better for one to stay at home and look after some kids as well as yours?

Years ago I started to think about every purchase as “how many hours did I have to work for this” and it made me really think.

Was picking on food above, as, if you read the “financial facelifts” in the National Post and Globe-n-mail (online) food is a biggie – a thousand a month.

Keep going….

#116 common sense on 02.08.18 at 9:48 pm

#113 Robert

F Cramer.

In 2008-9 he was the idiot telling everyone Lehman was “ok” and “don’t worry, they are going nowhere…”

Guess what happened 3 days later?

He’s part of the overall HUGE problem that even allows these type of products to exist and where we are today….Hypocrite to the nth degree…

Cramer? Please.

#117 Newcomer on 02.08.18 at 9:49 pm

I think the way we look at “retirement” could be better. I always saw it as working at more or less the same job, or working your way up the ladder, until you have enough put aside to stop working: then you fool around wearing sweaters on golf courses while you wait to die.

When I realized that, at any point in your life, if you can put enough aside to produce passive income, you can change your work habits, the whole thing became much more attractive. It’s also worth noting that reducing spending is easier, more fun, and more (excuse me for using the word) empowering than increasing earnings. Not that there’s is anything wrong with increasing earnings. That’s leaning in. But leaning back has a pretty good FU feel to it.

I think if people realized that we are finally living in an age where ordinary people can become independently wealthy with as little as 15 or 20 years of labor, and that you don’t have to follow a linear path (viz. Firecracker, or whatever her name was, Mr Money Moustache, etc.) there might be more enthusiasm for saving. Or maybe not. People are often boring.

#118 Not Screwed Millennial on 02.08.18 at 9:51 pm

#52 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 6:54 pm
………………………..
You don’t know what you are talking about. My first mortgage was at 14%, my brother had to renew at 20%. 25% down payment. I made about 12 bucks an hour at the time.Govt. child benefit was about 60 bucks a month for 2 kids and we were not allowed to use kids as dependents for tax purposes. Made it thru a couple of big recessions along the way. Jobs were scarce, credit was tight. It wasn’t as easy as u seem to think. ……………………..
Making $12 an hour with a kid (or kids) AND paying a mortgage…..seems like a whole lot of stuff that one does not need. In fact, having a child is a choice and paying a mortgage while earning low income is also a choice. So yeah…sorry pops, it is as easy as making good choices.

#119 Paul on 02.08.18 at 9:56 pm

#110 Walter Safety on 02.08.18 at 9:22 pm
“Twenty three years ago I wrote a book forecasting a retirement crisis about now”

You were a doomer ?

Merely a clairvoyant. Like now. – Garth
————————————————————————————————
Garth ! Clair Voyant are you are switching teams? Say it ain’t so!

#120 theoryAndPractice on 02.08.18 at 10:02 pm

#91 Steve on 02.08.18 at 8:13 pm

This is how the system designed to work for most of the population…

#121 IHCTD9 on 02.08.18 at 10:07 pm

#88 MPACI on 02.08.18 at 8:08 pm
blog dogs, how much of your take home pay or gross pay does everyone save for retirement?

My wife and I save just over 20%, we’re in are late 30’s – is that enough
——————

Depends. We save about 10%, but we’ve been at it a long time; we’re likely to cut that back soon as I don’t want an overly large amount in RRSP’s come retirement.

I’d say most couples who both work should shoot for a million by a 65 retirement. If you’ve got 200k or so right now 800.00 deposit every month will get you there. If you’ve got 100k saved, you’ll need to do 1300.00 per month. If you’re just starting, you’ll need to do 1900.00 per month. All based on getting 5.0% and in a tax shelter.

#122 Samson Nights on 02.08.18 at 10:15 pm

The CRA apologized to five women for an error. Seems responsible. – Garth

Sure, but only after the requisite CBC public shaming.

Otherwise those women, among how many countless others, would still be fighting a losing battle against the CRA, where pressure from performance quotas clearly override any sense of integrity or compassion.

Same goes for Bell (denied unlocked phones), Rogers (unscrupulous call centre pressure), Air Canada (overselling seats ruining vacations), TD (lost customer deposits), RBC Insurance (denied travel insurance), Volkswagen (emissions scandal), Loblaws (offshore bank scandal), Weston Bakeries (bread price fixing scandal), the public shaming list gets longer and longer.

Every consumer knows the corporate world is rigged against them until public shaming calls them out.

Sounds like you lead a sad, persecuted life. – Garth

#123 Kevin Kevlar on 02.08.18 at 10:17 pm

#32 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 6:24 pm

#13 Polymer on 02.08.18 at 6:08 pm
You forgot to mention that up in Canada we are getting destroyed by: food costs that are higher including bread price fixing. Cell phone plans that are outrageous.
……………………….

Wintering in the Philippines right now. Brand new Samsung Galaxy J2 Prime DUAL SIM cost 120 bucks. 30 day wifi sim card cost 25 bucks, 30 day talk and text cost 12 bucks, so i have portable wifi hotspot 24/7 that i can tether to my Ipad. What would that cost in Canada?……PS : CEO’s here don’t make 10 million a year.”

Dont forget to factor in the price of a kevlar vest so you dont get gunned down in a drive by copper instant justice execution!

#124 Kevin Kevlar on 02.08.18 at 10:19 pm

Garth what is the best way to play the VIX as I think there is no VIX ETF?

Don’t. – Garth

#125 conan on 02.08.18 at 10:19 pm

Global stock markets playing the blues today.

This just in from Japan.

https://youtu.be/NZ8adlsHGaE?t=4

#126 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 10:26 pm

#118 Not Screwed Millennial on 02.08.18 at 9:51 pm
Making $12 an hour with a kid (or kids) AND paying a mortgage…..seems like a whole lot of stuff that one does not need. In fact, having a child is a choice and paying a mortgage while earning low income is also a choice. So yeah…sorry pops, it is as easy as making good choices.
………………………………..

Dude. You REALLY don’t know what u are talking about. Twelve bucks an hour was a good wage in the early 80’s. Everyone had to pony up 25% down payment. Everyone was subject to double digit interest rates. Everyone suffered from the recessions and housing downturns. You got no clue. Did u repaint mom’s basement yet ?

#127 morrey on 02.08.18 at 10:29 pm

“The market volatility we’ve experienced since February 2 has been substantially attributed to algorithmic trading”

It pays to have a good financial advisor ;-)

#128 IHCTD9 on 02.08.18 at 10:29 pm

#91 Steve on 02.08.18 at 8:13 pm.

So you lot tell me and my ilk how to grow crops in salt.

———-

You and the family move out to small town Ontario. Buy a fixer upper for 125K. Mortgage will be 600.00/ month, you fix it up yourself. You and the wife go get jobs making the 14-15 min wage or more. Budget smart and you should have no trouble saving 1k per month minimum.

#129 Yanniel on 02.08.18 at 10:30 pm

The S&P 500 is -3.46% YTD. My balanced portfolio (similar to the one spelled out here) is -3.29%YTD.

It looks to me the balanced approach is taking the same hit as the S&P 500. How is this possible?

Quite possible if not properly balanced and globally diversified. – Garth

#130 Smoking Man on 02.08.18 at 10:32 pm

To all the deplorables out there who have been contacting me re the markets 50 and counting. I only do forex. I’m not following the markets much. Even the forex drivers. I trade the trend. Using a renko strategy. When markets are trending it’s easy money. When they wipesaw. You need a bank roll.

Call Garth. Boring as shit. But your loot will yield great returns over time.

Stop bugging me unless your a hot chick with nude pics.

#131 LS in Arbutus on 02.08.18 at 10:32 pm

I see what you did there:

Men with a financial plan: 32%
Women without a plan: 78%

I wonder why you didn’t write:

Men without financial plan: 68%
Women with a financial plan: 22%

I know the math is the same I’m just curious why you wrote it the way you did. I’m sure you get the implication.

Women live longer and have a greater need for a plan than men. I was trying to get the reader’s attention. It worked. – Garth

——————-

I think it proves what we all know, men are bigger fibbers than women.

#132 morrey on 02.08.18 at 10:36 pm

the level of financial knowledge by the majority of the blog dawgs in this pathetic blog is appalling!! poor sods.
But what is even more frighting is how convinced they are in their beliefs as facts!

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.08.18 at 10:44 pm

@#83 The Secret Code
“Hey Ontario:

Christy is coming to give a speech for the Ontario Real Estate Association.

Yeah this Christy:

“Christy Clark’s six-year tenure as the Liberal Party premier ended under a cloud of RCMP investigations into payments from lobbyists and an ethnic-vote harvesting scandal. A trove of incriminating paper trails only now coming to light shows Clark’s Liberals knew very well what was happening.”
Any jail time?’
++++++++

Unfortunately.

Not yet.

#134 Ace Goodheart on 02.08.18 at 10:53 pm

RE: #103 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.08.18 at 8:54 pm

_______________________________________________

“This stock’s 13-per-cent yield is a huge red flag

Even before the sell-off, Corus was yielding more than 10 per cent, a level that should have given investors a bad case of sweaty palms. Now, the yield has climbed to more than 13 per cent, which screams “danger.” If you think you can earn 13 per cent without the risk of further share price declines, a dividend cut, or both, I have some oceanfront property in Saskatchewan to sell you.”

The 13% yield only says that for some reason, the stock is over sold. People are dumping it.

So you have a look at the ratios and the metrics. Everything checks out.

Product line looks good. They’re making money. And they pay the 13% dividend, on time each month (for me they pay it in shares).

Corus is actually selling for below book value right now (0.744 price to book).

Cable Giant Shaw owns about 40% of Corus’ shares.

So what is the down side? Solid metrics, controlling shareholder is a massive cable company, it pays its dividends on time and in full, and it is being sold for less than book value.

#135 Yanniel on 02.08.18 at 10:55 pm

“Quite possible if not properly balanced and globally diversified. – Garth”

Hi Garth,

In 2017, my balanced portfolio returned 10.42%. I remember you saying your model portfolio did similarly.

Last Friday when you said your model was down 0.8% for the day, I published in one comment my portfolio was down similarly: 0.87%.

That tells me my portfolio reacted similar to yours last Friday. Based on that, I assumed the reaction of your model has been similar to mine this week.

I follow closely your free advice in this blog and also the Weekly call on your corporate site. Thank you very much for these gems.

I have done this for a very long time; which has allowed me to even pick your ETFs choices and portfolio allocations (you give away this in your weekly calls mainly)

As for the balance portion. I keep my targets in less than one percent deviation. I don’t sell at all to re-balance, I just use my new deposits to balance out each week.

Of course, I know I am amateur; thus the motive of my previous question. I wanted to understand why my balanced approach was not hedging against the market correction. You implied that I am doing this wrong way and that might very well be.

But for the sake of comparison (I am not trolling here, just really curious), what’s the return of your model portfolio YTD. I just want to know how lost I am.

#136 Terry on 02.08.18 at 11:03 pm

Wow ….. I just read most of the comments in this blog tonight! My mind is polluted with trash talk and financial confusion ………… I’m getting outta here to go be with my dog now!

here boy, here boy … Ruff …. Ruff !

#137 Financial Orchid on 02.08.18 at 11:04 pm

Totally agree with Garth on keeping desires in check. Shelter is a need. House is a luxury. For the Millennial folks who needs some help managing expectations:

http://financialorchid.com/2018/02/06/3-ways-to-manage-house-horniness-and-fomo/

#138 Robert B on 02.08.18 at 11:05 pm

#116 common sense on 02.08.18 at 9:48 pm

Re Cramer

Many insiders of many banks were shocked when Lehman’s was let go. I guess one less competition.
No lifeline for them.

Are you saying that the vid/xiv are not the problem ?
Then you better do some reading .

Cramer has been right more times than wrong.
With those odds you make some money.

#139 stage1dave on 02.08.18 at 11:07 pm

#91 Steve; a very thought-provoking post…

I’ve seen lots of this, and sometimes lived it, and don’t have any ready solutions either.

I’m leery of saying “I worked my way out of it”, because the hospitals and graveyards are full of people that worked a lot harder than I did, and most of ’em had squat.

I’m also not sure I “got lucky” because the wife and I aren’t rolling in it, but we’re content most days.

Your post remarked on most peeps working too much; that was what I (or we) changed. It all revolves around quality of life…living it for others doesn’t work for us.

There’s not much point in my detailing our personal approach to this dilemma, because what worked for us probably wouldn’t work for everyone else. (or maybe not anyone else!)

But our thought process is important: essentially, we wanted to enjoy our lives without working them away to pay for stuff. That meant less stuff. It also meant when we bought stuff, it usually had some intrinsic value (ie…could be resold, or might appreciate in value) And, WE had to LIKE it…we don’t buy things to impress the neighbours.

We don’t borrow money, either. So we rented…yeah, we both have a CC, but emergency only; with low limits. We buy decent vehicles that are 20 yrs old and maintain them. Start selling when we’re in double-digits. Used furniture, but immaculate (amazing whats on Kijiji)

No social life, and very few nites out…both got that out of systems in the 70s’ 80’s, 90’s haha. If I need to relive those days, I plug in an SG and crank the Marshall!

(tho I’m thinkin about doin a Nazareth “retro weekend” this summer; invitees must be able to name all band members as of 1975 and must be in physical possession of a Greatest Hits 8 track to enter. If yer car has points and a carb, ya get a free beer)

Anyway, after a couple years, there was a couple hun a month to “invest” or put into things of value. Pay cash and it can sit in a closet for a few years…or a garage. Payments suck! Fast forward a half dozen years, and you’re building on some value.

(no kids in the picture either, btw)

Our biggest decision: we don’t spend money on stuff that depreciates!

One last point; we both smoke…and financially, that sucks. The wife and I can get by on a pack a day between us, but that’s still almost $400/month in AB.

And I don’t need to explain to anyone on this blog what kind of a retirement that alone could fund! Personal habits can be a big impediment to any type of a savings plan…which is probably what will finally get us both to quit.

Off topic; any recommendations for a decent REIT in the southern ON (GTA) rental market? Thanx in advance!

#140 tccontrarian on 02.08.18 at 11:20 pm

#84 lol on 02.08.18 at 7:56 pm

$100,000 says the Dow is going <12,000 in 36 months or less!
I know someone willing to make this bet. Any takers?

TCC

………..

stop, internet tough guy. Come 36 months this cartoon character forgot he ever wrote this.
=====================================
When I was 16 a 'dared' the neighbourhood kids to bet me $5 on a ping-pong game.
I would start at 0-18 as the game went to 21. Why?
Well, I was bored winning 21-1, 21-2 … etc.
I was oozing confidence and I was up for the challenge, I thought.
I was accused of being arrogant but the 'challenge' was accepted by a couple of them.
Long story short – I ended up $10 richer but made 2 less 'friends'.

Here, I've done more 'work' than 99.9% of market participants and have gained a disporportionate understading of how the market operates. I've made disproportionage gains which I'm not really 'allowed' to post here (it's Garth's rules, after all).
But I've got nothing to gain really by 'betting' strangers on the internet – but at the same time I feel it my responsibility to state what I think the market will do over the next couple years – as a lot are going to lose big time.
No, I don't run a fund or anything – only mine and family's funds (and helping a couple friends).

If I wanted publicity I WOULD 'bet' $100,000 on the above guestimation – as it's got a 99.9% chance of coming true.
But, I really don't need to go public – other than putting it out here and couple blogs I sometimes visit.
Up to you folks to figure it out.
I sold my house in 2015 because it was overvalued and I invested the proceeds as I saw fit – now I'm 300% 'richer' than 2015. And I expect to be 200-300% richer than now in 2020, betting on my long/short strategies.

I will be around in 2020 and then you can tell be whether I will be 'forgotten'…

Good luch to you all…

TCC

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.08.18 at 11:20 pm

@#127 Morrey Nissan
“the level of financial knowledge by the majority of the blog dawgs in this pathetic blog is appalling!!”
++++++
Please enlighten us oh Oracle of Ontario, Wizard of Wetaskowin, Balladier of Burnaby, on your extremis maximus (Lord Humongous?) knowledge of all things monetary.
Perhaps a 1500 word essay on the current market conditions (plagarists and links need not apply) would suffice?

#142 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 11:21 pm

#123 Kevin Kevlar on 02.08.18 at 10:17 pm
Dont forget to factor in the price of a kevlar vest so you dont get gunned down in a drive by copper instant justice execution!
……………………..
Hahahha. Youse guys are priceless. Have u ever left your home town of Beaver City ?

#143 IHCTD9 on 02.08.18 at 11:29 pm

#118 Not Screwed Millennial on 02.08.18 at 9:51 pm
#52 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 6:54 pm

Making $12 an hour with a kid (or kids) AND paying a mortgage…..seems like a whole lot of stuff that one does not need. In fact, having a child is a choice and paying a mortgage while earning low income is also a choice. So yeah…sorry pops, it is as easy as making good choices.
——-

So if fingers skipped the house and kids, he would have had it SO easy?

But if you skip the house and kids, you’d still have it SO tough?

Sounds to me like the only difference here is that fingers had the balls and resolve to make the monthly and put food on the table, while you would rather cry and point fingers.

The difference here isn’t generational or financial.

It’s individual…

#144 MoistMillenial on 02.08.18 at 11:35 pm

I’m a millenial and I don’t want to save for my retirement because everyone I know who has ever retired has either died a year later or gotten really sick and not been able to enjoy life at that age so I’d rather live it up now. thanks for listening.

#145 Dead Cat Bounce on 02.08.18 at 11:36 pm

Did y’all see the game I played over at Dow Jones this week ? hahahahahahaha

#146 IHCTD9 on 02.09.18 at 12:03 am

Seriously, boomers had it so easy provided they skipped home ownership and a family lol!

SCM has it nailed, those spoiled rotten boomers only had a tough time if they were dumb enough to buy a house and have kids. Otherwise, they cruised on easy street like she’s been saying all along!

Much different case today!

You know, I am now convinced. Nothing says you’re a baller more than owning no house with no family in it. I now see SCM was right, today’s Millennials have it much worse with er, ah, – not being able to afford a house or put kids in it – well never mind! It’s the boomers fault!

#147 False Start on 02.09.18 at 12:20 am

#63 TheSecretCode on 02.08.18 at 7:13 pm
Rally for Affordable Housing on Feb.18, 2018 – Vancouver, BC.

1885 people are signed on…

Will the NDP pull the trigger on any of the following?

– 2% Speculation Tax (BCHAF – BC Housing Affordability Fund);

– Set up a Special Task force in Real Estate for 1) Money Laundering, 2) Speculation, 3) Tax Evasion/Avoidance, 4) Fraud and 5) Unethical practices by realtors;

– Work with Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) to tackle tax evasion/money laundering and ensure individuals declare their worldwide income;

– Cancel BC Home Owner Mortgage and Equity Partnership

– Ban Developers and Realtors from marketing homes overseas

– Close Bare Trust Loophole

– Impose Foreign Buyer’s Tax on all pre-sales

– Restriction on Airbnb and expand empty homes tax throughout Metro Vancouver

– Require potential buyers to register with the government and declare all sources of income

– End ALR farmland speculation and eliminate mega mansions

– Transparency of all sales of homes

– ENFORCEMENT (fines, suspensions, criminal charges, etc)
—————

As you can see by the government’s initiatives to date, they will walk a soft line and not really tackle the issue. They have already ruled out a complete foreign buyers ban…

It will be game on in BC real estate and B20 is not touching the Lower Mainland or Victoria.

Unfortunately, it will be onwards and upwards…

#148 Stan Brooks on 02.09.18 at 12:23 am

#78 45north on 02.08.18 at 7:44 pm
Michael King: The Financial Times has a new unsettling article titled
“Canada’s housing market flirts with disaster”.

here’s the link:
https://www.ft.com/content/8cb9f0fa-0a61-11e8-839d-41ca06376bf2

from the link:

Ben McLannahan:

Laurentian Bank, Canada’s seventh-biggest by assets, said in December that it would have to buy back about C$300m of mortgages it had sold to third parties, having found that borrowers had “embellished” income and assets. Last month, the Montreal-based bank said the buyback obligations had increased to about C$400m, and it would have to raise more capital.

sounds a lot like the US when the housing bubble burst

——————————-

Note that these are non-insured mortgages, just MBS-ed mortgages with the bank on the hook.

Imagine what is on the CMHC book/with Siddall in charge. BTW most of the mortgages are MBS-ed in USD, probably variable rated courtesy of the Canadian tax payer and sold as government backed security on the international markets. Hundred of billions of them.

This is where the financing came from for the mortgage boom. over 1 trillion from abroad.

Hey they/the mortgage applicants lied? How surprising.

—————————–

#72 -=jwk=- on 02.08.18 at 7:33 pm
Wintering in the Philippines right now. Brand new Samsung Galaxy J2 Prime DUAL SIM cost 120 bucks. 30 day wifi sim card cost 25 bucks, 30 day talk and text cost 12 bucks, so i have portable wifi hotspot 24/7 that i can tether to my Ipad. What would that cost in Canada?……PS : CEO’s here don’t make 10 million a year.

Your phone is a piece of junk – slower than the slowest phone sold in Canada with a crappylow res screen. And I pay $35/mo for a plan with koodo the same as yours. And I live in a country with a murder rate less than 1/5th of the phillipines, and there is no war with the muslims in the south of my country and there weren’t 12,000 deaths of ‘drug users’ gunned down in the streets….like of all the warm places you picked the phillipines?!? 10 years ago, before duerte, sure. but now? was the flight that cheap?

No worries, that will change once the ‘economy’ based on debt, collapses. The crime is already on the rise.

Now everyone is drunk in the biggest credit/housing orgy, wait until they get sober/and hungry.

I have seen people, specially seniors searching for stuff in the garbage bins in the center of the universe/GTA.

The car of a friend of mine was stolen for bank robbery.
And 15 years ago drug addicts were braking cars in BC to steal your old sport shoes and get 5 bucks to get drugged.

And T2 just legalized weed. He thinks life is like in his student years. Get high and drink heavy, study 10 years on daddy’s trust fund and become a country leader.

How exemplary.

#149 Stuey on 02.09.18 at 12:43 am

I don’t know about the other blog Dawgs that visit this site but I for one am enjoying this correction! It has long been overdue and I have kept some powder dry waiting for this event. I probably won’t consider moving more cash into the Canadian market until the Marijuana Stocks finally go up in smoke.(July). Organized Crime has finally met its match; the Liberal Party of Canada.
Things are really F’d-up here in Canukastan. Bread Price fixing should drop the consumer staples another 15% from here. The dust will settle when the other pissed off grocerers answer for Loblaw’s admission of guilt.
What about Gasoline price fixing? Haven’t we been gypped by the refiner’s for decades now. The Government won’t bite the hand that feeds it. Sorry Consumers. Gasoline should be refined here in Canada for Canadians. Not Canadian Crude refined in America and sold back to Canadians. Free Trade at its finest! We are nothing more than Suckers!

#150 Ronaldo on 02.09.18 at 12:46 am

#69 Long Branch Apprentice on 02.08.18 at 7:31 pm

Legitimate question to any of the knowledgables out there: how did USDCAD react during the fall of 2008 when everything was collapsing before our eyes. It seems like there was flight to USD for safety but can any of you grey bearded blog dogs confirm this?

I was but a greenhorn during the GFC, and knew little of what was actually happening until later on.
—————————————————————-

This should help you out in this regard. You can do a search by month, day, year to see where the USD/CAD were trading at during various times. (Historical Currency Rates)

Our dollar started the year 2008 at basically par with USD. By Sept. 24th it was 1.03 units per USD. By year end, it was 1.22 and by end of March 2009 it was 1.26. Today it’s 1.26.

http://xe.com/

#151 HD on 02.09.18 at 12:49 am

@ #102 Nemesis, @ #93 Interstellar Old Yeller, @#76 Guy in Calgary

Thank you guys.

Switching off for a while but will report back in June when I finally have to breathe :)

Best,

HD

#152 Ronaldo on 02.09.18 at 1:04 am

#126 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 02.08.18 at 10:26 pm

#118 Not Screwed Millennial on 02.08.18 at 9:51 pm
Making $12 an hour with a kid (or kids) AND paying a mortgage…..seems like a whole lot of stuff that one does not need. In fact, having a child is a choice and paying a mortgage while earning low income is also a choice. So yeah…sorry pops, it is as easy as making good choices.
………………………………..

Dude. You REALLY don’t know what u are talking about. Twelve bucks an hour was a good wage in the early 80’s. Everyone had to pony up 25% down payment. Everyone was subject to double digit interest rates. Everyone suffered from the recessions and housing downturns. You got no clue. Did u repaint mom’s basement yet ?
—————————————————————-
In 1980 you could by a decent starter home for $60000 when average salary was $24000 which represented 2.5 times annual income for a single wage earner.

#153 SoggyShorts on 02.09.18 at 1:12 am

#28 Penny Henny on 02.08.18 at 6:21 pm
#20 Penny Henny on 02.08.18 at 6:14 pm
You want to know why women are less likely to have a financial plan for retirement?
Well I’ll tell you Garth. Too much testosterone on this blog.

How does that even make sense? – Garth
/////////////////

Let me explain.
If your female readership didn’t get turned off of this blog because of some of the dinks on here they would be more likely to keep on reading and following your advice.
But what would I know, I am a boy.
If you are, you’d be the first male over 18 who has ever referred to themselves as “a boy”.
protip:if for some reason you want to lie about your gender, say “I’m a guy”

#154 Plastic Money on 02.09.18 at 1:30 am

Garth I have 15000$ to invest from my credit card, do you accept Visa? Can I write off the 14% interest?

#155 Tony on 02.09.18 at 1:41 am

Re: #41 tccontrarian on 02.08.18 at 6:34 pm

From what I’ve read the market is supposed to tank about 6 months before Trump is out of office. It’s possible he could do two terms.

#156 NV Landlord no more on 02.09.18 at 1:47 am

To #91 Steve
Years ago I overheard my aunt tell my mother, she was saving every cent in order to take the family to live in England for a year and to travel in Europe every chance they could. I was shocked to hear they planned never to pay a penny for any entertainment – they would go to all the free events; they planned to buy thrift store clothing for everyone including herself; they would bargain shop and always buy day old bread and so they did. I was shocked to realize her plans, and later to realize how successful she and her family have become. Only one salary in the family yet endless stories of the bargains they found. Endless – NOW? They are multi- millionaires… And I later realized how good that tidbit of advice was.
Remember: Less (stuff) is more
or sooner or later the stuff owns you (paying for storage / a bigger place for your stuff / more insurance)
Never eat out, never buy a coffee, pop, drink.. water is sweet. CUT the cable, have a neighbourhood pizza party – home made of course.
Good luck – keep us posted…
Good luck

#157 Karma on 02.09.18 at 2:00 am

#58 dgb on 02.08.18 at 7:02 pm
“#7jungle 32%of men with a plan(=78%men without a plan)
—-as apposed to—-
78%of women without a plan(=32% women with a plan)

kind of the same to me or is there an error here Garth????????????”

Yah dude, there’s an error -> your math skills.

100% – 32% = 68%.

#158 morrey on 02.09.18 at 2:04 am

read and weep –
“Terry Glavin on the efforts to undo a decade of indifference that turned Vancouver into an epicentre of fraud, scams and real estate mania”

#159 Karma on 02.09.18 at 2:05 am

#66 HD on 02.08.18 at 7:22 pm
“Well….I’m back after a long hiatus. What did I miss?

Just passing by anyway.

I shut off all distraction to pursue a CFA designation. That thing is hard. Cleared the Dec 2017 exam and now prepping for the June 2018 Level 2 exam. It is taking everything out of me. I never worked in the Financial Industry but thinking of a career change. I love that stuff and this blog inspired me to do something about it.

Best,

HD”

Good luck. Level 2 is much more difficult. Absolutely time yourself for each and every vignette. My recommendation is to drink a red bull in the morning and at lunch time on the day of the test.

#160 dieinthestreet on 02.09.18 at 2:17 am

We shouldn’t have to be financial geniuses, gambling with timing the markets, and faithful in limitless “progress”, to not starve on the street when we get old.

I dont believe in never ending growth. Why perpetuate this model? Its ruined the planet, and humankind.

Be happy with what you have, in the here and now.
A sane mentality cannot be bought.

#161 maya on 02.09.18 at 2:26 am

I get everything you say Garth. We have saved 175000 in four plus years by renting only. But now the rent in surrey area is so expensive, I wont be able to save. Dont know what to cut from already frugal lifestyle. I live frugally, but do not compramise in food and fun things. I dont buy lots of stuff and try to be a minimalist.
But i am losing it now. Two bedroom decent apartment is 1800 now. Who makes and pays that kind of money in Surrey. You are lucky if you have $20 an hour paying job.

I am losing hope. If I cant save in rent, where else I can cut it. If you have to cut small things in life, what is the point iof living and working. I dont know.
You might say move further away. but the commute increases and we might need two cars. The housing situation is killing us. I hope it seriously crashes.

#162 Widening Gyre on 02.09.18 at 3:12 am

#60 SCD on 02.08.18 at 7:04 pm – I’ve long suspected that there are WAY more women on this blog than than is generally assumed.

I suspect that many of the women here who do comment, comment under a nom de plume that is gender non specific – I have always done so in order to have my comments taken for what they are, as opposed to them being viewed under the lens of some hormonal/irrational/nesting/man hating/gold digging bitch.
Try reading the blog with the idea that every commentator who doesn’t obviously identify themselves as a man is in fact a woman- after-all most readers assume that if your name is not obviously female you’re a man.

Idiot comments like #7 Jungle and #75 Reality is stark probably don’t drive women away, they just encourage us to go incognito

Every once in a while someone like #92 Blackdog will out herself but more frequently someone will be labeled “her”, presumably as as insult.

I comment (infrequently) under three names – one professional, that I only make very fact based comments under so as not to place my profession in poor light, one middle of the road that I don’t like to be too controversial and this one where I don’t give two F***s who I offend. All three of these names are gender nonspecific. I’ve realized that doing this, while giving my comments more credence on this blog, is doing a disservice to women. From now on I will always be identifying myself as a woman so that the dogs can see that this blog is also full of bitches. :-)

F46BC

#163 Fake News Again on 02.09.18 at 3:47 am

#4 Mr. Messauguen Ist on 02.08.18 at 5:52 pm
“Women without a plan: 78%”

Are you serious? Feminist policies in Canada give women everything on a silver platter (well at least only certain types of females while the rest are discriminated because of intersecting identities like racism, transphobia, homophobia and anti-Indigenous racism in nearly every sector of government in Canada).

_____

I suppose that means you are a fan of Bill C-16 – which is now law – that allows a judge in a court of law to send you to jail for not using a persons correct pronoun.

The long dead marxists and fascists are smiling in their graves right now looking at the road Canada is headed down…..

#164 Our pal val on 02.09.18 at 3:49 am

Let’s remind again what a hundred bucks a week in a balanced ETF portfolio brings: At an average 7% return after 30 years it sums $532,000 (of which 376,000 is growth). This should provide an annual income of $37,000, tax-free. Add in CPP and OAS, and the total is $55,000 – no taxes………. Garth I want to sign up for this please send me the paper work seriously… thanks.

#165 Bad Cowboy on 02.09.18 at 4:34 am

Is Trudeau giving away hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars to Clintons , Obamas, American Green Blob backed charities and foundations and them refunding millions back into his Trudeau Election fund (the Pierre Trudeau Foundation) and third party propaganda run through our two Trudeau Media wings ( CTV and CBC) even legal? He can’t raise that money, so he gets kick backs from orgs that he finds with Canadian taxpayer dollars? It’s like watching the washing machine spin in circles. Why does our national broadcaster get funding for obviously partisan messaging? How does Craig Oliver praise Trudeau with every breath while having his head so far up the kids butt that he’s chewing his food?

Markets…. down 10…..I’m down 3.5…..not bad. I had notice that many good companies are raising the dividends. I will continue to use dividend cash flow to buy incrementally as we crawl towards a bottom. It will allow me to increase cash flow by owning more stock .

It’s 85 here……and I don’t give a fig. If you all were stupid enough to. Our Gerald Butts as PM..deal with it.8

#166 Stan Brooks on 02.09.18 at 4:58 am

#100 Smoking Man on 02.08.18 at 8:42 pm
Butts now calling Canadians who oppose T2 Nazis.

——————————

A very confused individual. The damage he, T2 and wild bill inflict and will continue to inflict on the economy and people could prove to be non-reparable.

Ethically challenged elitists creating and promoting non-existing conflicts, tearing the fabric of the society just to pose as the saviors, with rolled up sleeves.

Pathetic, but this is what Canadians apparently like and want, to be crushed, taxed and called Nazis, the most tolerant nation on earth by far to be called phobic on religion, gender etc.

People need to adjust as it is going to get worse, much worse.

Don’t expect moral, honesty, respect from politicians. Expect theft, lies, more lies, taxation, robbery, suppression.

Do you honestly believe that the french villa guy and the trust fund boy consider you as equal to them and their rich friend?

They are just playing drama, T2’s rein is pretty much like Caligula’s rein in Rome, Caligula liked theater, drama, public meetings and to pose as having liberal and generous heart while crushing the supposedly free citizens. He came from dynasty as well.

History just repeats 2100 years later. Nothing new.

#167 under the radar on 02.09.18 at 5:18 am

How much money is FU money for a late boomer to have ? Only liquid assets , not talking about net worth. Is it 2, 5 or 10 …?
( FU – my definition – being able to say no to anyone , not worried if the phone does not ring, don’t need the grief that comes with your business, no thank you that’s not my area. )

#168 Stan Brooks on 02.09.18 at 5:20 am

BTW both the liberals and the nazis (who btw were national socialists/liberals) love do hold rallies/parades to emotionally connect with the people.

Emotions vs. logic, no wonder they promote T2 as ’emotionally intelligent’. And he is rallying his supporters on town-hall meetings in staged appearances to ‘connect with the masses’.

Sure, he does not have the charisma and the great speaker capabilities of the fuehrer (the biggest criminal in the history of the world) but people are dumber these days so it might just work.

Do I hear the thief crying: thieves?

#169 Stan Brooks on 02.09.18 at 5:31 am

Here is what Gerry thinks of Canadians:

https://twitter.com/gmbutts/status/961573323112112129

#170 ANON on 02.09.18 at 5:58 am

I’m literally holding my breath for the new affordable quad SIM Samsung Galaxy with enhanced AI for SoHum® (*) augmentation.
* Sense of Humor. Extra SIMs required for telepathic communications.

#171 Stan Brooks on 02.09.18 at 6:10 am

And this is what the world thinks of our joke liberal government:

https://www.spencerfernando.com/2018/02/08/hateful-trudeau-advisor-gerald-butts-despicably-compares-critics-trudeaus-peoplekind-comment-nazis/

https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/961665051408117767?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.spencerfernando.com%2F2018%2F02%2F08%2Fhateful-trudeau-advisor-gerald-butts-despicably-compares-critics-trudeaus-peoplekind-comment-nazis%2F

#172 John Dough on 02.09.18 at 6:26 am

Tired of speculating and losing? Want to invest and win? Lack sufficient means for an advisor, or born frugal and out-of-wedlock? With the device I have developed, you too can choose the stocks that go up. Taking advantage of the well-known, but hitherto unexploited, principle of chromatic aberration, this device converts a monochromatic balance sheet into a spectrum of colours. Even the village idiot will see red for losses, green for profits, yellow for special charges.

Using a patented super high-intensity, tritium-enriched glass (Shite-Glass™), this wonderous device, which I have christened “Spectacles” will change how you view todays markets. How you act is entirely up to you*.

* Does not include testicles, wallet and watch.

Guarantee: If you are not completely satisfied I will provide a free replacement “Telescope” to view the progress of your moon-shots.

#173 Ace Goodheart on 02.09.18 at 7:02 am

RE: #168 Stan Brooks on 02.09.18 at 5:20 am
“BTW both the liberals and the nazis (who btw were national socialists/liberals) love do hold rallies/parades to emotionally connect with the people.”

Whatever T2 is, he’s not a Nazi. Not sure why anyone would make that comparison.

I see T2 as a rather unfortunate fellow, who is the kind of guy who would be the life of a party, very good with the ladies, probably a great friend, but without any leadership qualities. He cannot make decisions unless someone is telling him what to do (hence the attraction to special interest groups), he “tries to hard” to please, he does not have any backbone, and he has no “compass” ie he doesn’t have a clear direction.

He is certainly no Adolf Hitler. He is more along the lines of Mr. Bean. Clumsy, not incredibly intelligent, and aiming to please without really having a clue what he’s doing.

He should have stayed in drama teaching.

#174 Ace Goodheart on 02.09.18 at 7:12 am

Latest Millennial fad: emotional support animals:

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/02/08/woman-says-airline-suggested-she-flush-her-emotional-support-hamster-down-the-toilet-so-she-did.html

Someone apparently tried to bring a peacock on an air plane as an emotional support creature. What’s next, an Alpaca?

#175 Tony on 02.09.18 at 7:58 am

The February jobs report comes out today. It will be the worst jobs report since the 1867 Confederation and the dollar will drop one point three cents on the report.

#176 Rational Optimist on 02.09.18 at 7:59 am

Just read this article on CBC: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-stock-market-performance-laggard-1.4526473

Best line: “Canada remains a laggard in new-economy activity (the country spends more on real estate commissions and transfer costs than on R&D).”

These is that TSX will continue to underperform because foreigners see us as a hugely consumer-driven economy whose consumers are about to hit a debt wall and stop driving the economy.

Mark, can you refute this, remind us why the TSX is about to go into overdrive and spend the next decade as a world-beater? I want to believe…

#177 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.09.18 at 8:00 am

@#162 W G
“comment under a nom de plume that is gender non specific”
+++++++++

By Godfrey, I think I fall under that designation…….

#178 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.09.18 at 8:03 am

@#154 Plastic credit
“have 15000$ to invest from my credit card, do you accept Visa? Can I write off the 14% interest?”
++++++

Wait til bitcoin hits $7k . Buy 2. Blow the rest on a party.

#179 Rooster on 02.09.18 at 8:27 am

#91 Steve on 02.08.18 at 8:13 pm
I’m trying to figure out when I could have saved any money at all… No bloated rich parents, no way up the clogged work ladder, no hope. Just more and more labour on a hamster wheel with hammered out bearings screeching out the song of despair. So you lot tell me and my ilk how to grow crops in salt.

**************
Steve, If you can sing as well as you write, I’d buy your CD.

Un-organized (non-union) muscle power is always going to be poorly paid. Brain power is not cheap because it is scarce. Use your head and find something on the side to supplement your income. If you can get paid to do something you enjoy, you will be ahead of the game.

There are lots of websites that desperately need spell-checkers/editors. Send them some corrections and volunteer until they find you you irresistible. Start a weblog of your own and put a donation link on it. If it is good, people kind will donate. Until then, I bequeath all my rights to your new weblog name “No Wifi at the Poorhouse”.

Avoid seminars and get-rich quick schemes. Don’t try to grow any crops other than weed. Buy LED bulbs, turn the heat down and put a sweater on. Make your meals from unprocessed ingredients. It can be 50% to 90% cheaper, and tastes better because it is. Shop at the cheapest grocery store in the good neighbourhood and organize group buys at Costco.

Don’t buy anything on credit, unless you need a car, but get a reliable one. Shop around for the best interest rate, because you’re poor they want to charge you more. Fix anything that breaks yourself, apprenticeships are free on youtube. If you have any vices, practice abstinence, not subsidence. The bad news, whether rich or poor, is the screamers will drain you mentally and financially. If they can crawl they can work; grass cutting, dog walking, baby sitting, whatever.

Pretty simplistic, but you need to start somewhere. Count your blessings everyday, and don’t read Stan’s column.

#180 too funny! on 02.09.18 at 8:43 am

Garth, thanks for the great humour in your responses today – on fire. Your talent does not go unnoticed!

#181 Zero Sum on 02.09.18 at 8:47 am

The weaker sex live longer than men for two reasons:

Women worry about the now, not the future.
Women drive as recklessly as men, but slower.

Studies have shown that women who invest in the stock market are 8 times more likely to die from coronary artery disease. No more studies are needed.

#182 canadian jobs report on 02.09.18 at 8:55 am

real stinker

CAD taking it on the chin

#183 Steven Rowlandson on 02.09.18 at 9:00 am

Garth without sufficient income for all working Canadians I don’t see how much can be saved from this impending train wreck of a economy. Excessive debt and excessive big ticket item prices and capping income to fight inflation will be the doom of the economy. You can’t make progress with an income that amounts to 15 cents on the dollar.

#184 Steven Rowlandson on 02.09.18 at 9:02 am

Garth is there going to be a 5$ coin to replace the 5$ bank note?

#185 Tater on 02.09.18 at 9:03 am

#41 tccontrarian on 02.08.18 at 6:34 pm
“As explained often, US markets have advanced on the back of record corporate profits, robust job creation and booming consumer confidence – now augmented by tax cuts. This long-term trend is far from over.” – Garth
======================================

$100,000 says the Dow is going <12,000 in 36 months or less!
I know someone willing to make this bet. Any takers?

TCC

—————————————————————–
What odds?

#186 General Malaise on 02.09.18 at 9:06 am

Trump has just announced (via Twitter) new short-term career opportunities in the Military. US 10-year yields are up, which as we all should know by now, means prices are down, way down.

The Trumpanzees are elated, but the Demi-crats are cold to the plan. Is there a draft in here somewhere?

#187 James on 02.09.18 at 9:15 am

I am really getting tired of Gerald Butts and Justin Trudeau and their sniveling conniving Orwellian think-speak and newspeak. God Dam it we have passed 1984 but we are headed right for it again. Butts is displaying Democrat/Liberal identity politics at it’s worst. If you don’t agree with Trudeau’s virtue signalling, all inclusive leftism, you must be a Rebel Media style Nazi. Sorry Gerry, not everyone who disagrees with your puppet PM’s SJW government is a Nazi. There are plenty of valid reasons that real Canadians are increasingly dissatisfied with Trudeau. Your assumption that Liberals speak for all Canadians is wrong.
Just remember your vote counts!

#188 Another Deckchair on 02.09.18 at 9:16 am

@88 MPACI

We spend less than 1 salary; one gets put away. We lack for nothing, and hope for decades of further enjoyment.

We both also love our jobs (people and the work) – which makes it easy to stay working and save.

#189 Rawinder Khan on 02.09.18 at 9:29 am

It’s simple. Didn’t save enough to retire? Keep working.

#190 Tater on 02.09.18 at 9:33 am

#99 Ace Goodheart on 02.08.18 at 8:36 pm

I found a bunch more fairly well known companies today with negative price to book values.
—————————————————————
lol, wut? You want to buy companies that have negative book value?

#191 Penny Henny on 02.09.18 at 9:36 am

#49 Double Bottom on 02.08.18 at 6:46 pm
re #3 Penny Henny

oh yeah. we got us a correction.
Dec 18 went 60% cash.
Feb 8 now 34% cash.

************************

Are you saying you’ve bought the dip and reduced the cash?
//////////////

Yep

#192 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.09.18 at 9:43 am

Blackdog @92 sez:

“I believe that is her way of complimenting you Garth. What she is saying (I think), is that your blog is a financial life saver, but women are too afraid to hang around here.”

Women are too afraid to hang here? Are the words going to jump off the screen and strangle them? Are they afraid of being “offended” to death?

Geez.

#193 Bitcoinaire on 02.09.18 at 9:45 am

It’s become clear that Crypto is just one, big, bloated scam, unlike the Stock Mark-

https://imageshack.com/a/img922/3706/sQ5eDU.png

Stocks down 10% in a correction. Bitcoin down 60% in a crash. – Garth

#194 Smoking Man on 02.09.18 at 9:46 am

Hey SCM

Suck on this pickle.
Part time jobs get crushed.

Min wage…horror show.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-09/oh-canada-part-time-jobs-crash-most-history

#195 earlybird on 02.09.18 at 9:54 am

#175 Nice call Tony…close!
# Seriously Smoking Man??

Its all about interpretation, maybe people in that pay range don’t have to work a job and a half…so they ditched the half…

#196 IHCTD9 on 02.09.18 at 9:55 am

#139 stage1dave on 02.08.18 at 11:07 pm

One last point; we both smoke…and financially, that sucks. The wife and I can get by on a pack a day between us, but that’s still almost $400/month in AB.

And I don’t need to explain to anyone on this blog what kind of a retirement that alone could fund! Personal habits can be a big impediment to any type of a savings plan…which is probably what will finally get us both to quit.
___________________

Get mad at the taxation, then get an e-cig. That’s how I quit. I think it’s like 14.00/pack these days in Ontario. E-cig is by far the easiest way, I know guys using one just to cut back. They now smoke a pack and a half per week mainly in the evenings, and use the E-cig during the day.

#197 Sonny on 02.09.18 at 10:04 am

Canada sees biggest jobs drop since 2009; interest rates seen holding

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/economy-sheds-88000-jobs-unemployment-rate-climbs/article37917112/

#198 Victor V on 02.09.18 at 10:06 am

‘Don’t panic’: Canada sheds 88,000 jobs, biggest decline since 2009

https://www.bnn.ca/don-t-panic-canada-sheds-88-000-jobs-biggest-decline-since-2009-1.993398

OTTAWA – The Canadian economy lost the most jobs in nine years in January, pulling back after a robust 2017 as losses were heaviest in the service sectors, data from Statistics Canada showed on Friday.

The decrease of 88,000 jobs fell well short of economists’ forecasts for a gain of 10,000 and made for the biggest decline since January 2009 when the economy was dealing with the global financial crisis. The unemployment rate edged up to 5.9 per cent from December’s revised 5.8 per cent.

The drop in jobs was driven by a 137,000 decline in part-time work, the biggest fall on record, which eclipsed a 49,000 increase in full-time positions.

#199 lol part II on 02.09.18 at 10:06 am

But I’ve got nothing to gain really by ‘betting’ strangers on the internet – but at the same time I feel it my responsibility to state what I think the market will do over the next couple years – as a lot are going to lose big time.
No, I don’t run a fund or anything – only mine and family’s funds (and helping a couple friends).

………….

no kidding you ‘don’t run a fund’

that’s the only believable portion of that rubbish you posted

gl to you as well

#200 Victor V on 02.09.18 at 10:07 am

U.S. stocks soar following global declines

https://www.bnn.ca/u-s-stocks-soar-following-global-declines-1.993346

U.S. stocks opened sharply higher on Friday as technology and financial stocks rose, but the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average remained on course for their biggest weekly losses in at least six years.

#201 IHCTD9 on 02.09.18 at 10:13 am

#161 maya on 02.09.18 at 2:26 am
I get everything you say Garth. We have saved 175000 in four plus years by renting only. But now the rent in surrey area is so expensive, I wont be able to save. Dont know what to cut from already frugal lifestyle. I live frugally, but do not compramise in food and fun things. I dont buy lots of stuff and try to be a minimalist.
But i am losing it now. Two bedroom decent apartment is 1800 now. Who makes and pays that kind of money in Surrey. You are lucky if you have $20 an hour paying job.

I am losing hope. If I cant save in rent, where else I can cut it. If you have to cut small things in life, what is the point iof living and working. I dont know.
You might say move further away. but the commute increases and we might need two cars. The housing situation is killing us. I hope it seriously crashes.
______

Move to where it makes sense to live costs/income. If not look into living in a Van, tiny house, or RV. Don’t blow that 175K, you’ll never forgive yourself.

Think about moving every day until you get used to the idea. Either that, or start thinking about an alternative lifestyle.

I don’t care how nice the scenery is, if your area has you eating dirt for sustenance with no savings and no prospects – it is time to leave.

Time for a new job, new city, new life.

#202 Bitcoinaire on 02.09.18 at 10:13 am

@Stocks down 10% in a correction. Bitcoin down 60% in a crash.

Good morning Garth!

Crypto also had a run-up that was magnitudes larger. Emergent markets tend be that way. Ethereum and various utility tokens are the things to be watching out for this year, including those that interface with the legacy financial markets.

Anyway, I need to groom my cat.

#203 IHCTD9 on 02.09.18 at 10:20 am

#164 Our pal val on 02.09.18 at 3:49 am
Let’s remind again what a hundred bucks a week in a balanced ETF portfolio brings: At an average 7% return after 30 years it sums $532,000 (of which 376,000 is growth). This should provide an annual income of $37,000, tax-free. Add in CPP and OAS, and the total is $55,000 – no taxes……….

Garth I want to sign up for this please send me the paper work seriously… thanks.
____________________

Ah, you can get this anywhere, even [email protected] can set you up with an RRSP/TFSA auto-withdrawal, set it and forget it portfolio.

Those have 2-2.5 MER’s though – your choice. You can go places either way.

Definitely set it up as an auto withdrawal though.

#204 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.09.18 at 10:22 am

#194 Smoking Man on 02.09.18 at 9:46 am

Pretty simple Smokey if you took the time to do 2 minutes of research rather than confirmation bias. ZeroHedge is rotting your brain man.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-employment-january-1.4527905

By industry, employment across the country dropped in several fields, including:

Educational services.
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing.
Professional, scientific and technical services.
Construction, as well as health care and social assistance.

—————-

The job losses are due to housing going down, nothing to do with minimum wage.

Quebec lost 30,000 jobs and they didn’t have a minimum wage hike in January. How do you explain that?

Facts are stubborn things aren’t they?

This is just a correction from the last 2 months. How quickly you forget.

78,000 jobs created in December and 79,500 jobs created in November.

Month to month Statscan data are notoriously unreliable. You have to be kidding yourself if you think the real job market fluctuates this wildly from month to month. On a seasonally adjusted basis no less.

Conservatives are sad people man. I gotta say. They get pissed when Canada creates tons of jobs under Trudeau and take glee when Canada loses jobs.

Canada goes on ‘hiring splurge’ in November with 79,500 new jobs
https://www.bnn.ca/canadian-economy-adds-79-500-jobs-in-november-1.931528

78,600 jobs were added in December: StatsCan | CTV News
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/unemployment-falls-to-lowest-in-40-years-statscan-1.3746827

I’m sure Garth will provide this balanced, diversified information in today’s blog………

#205 Penny Henny on 02.09.18 at 10:30 am

#153 SoggyShorts on 02.09.18 at 1:12 am
#28 Penny Henny on 02.08.18 at 6:21 pm
#20 Penny Henny on 02.08.18 at 6:14 pm

If your female readership didn’t get turned off of this blog because of some of the dinks on here they would be more likely to keep on reading and following your advice.
But what would I know, I am a boy.
If you are, you’d be the first male over 18 who has ever referred to themselves as “a boy”.
protip:if for some reason you want to lie about your gender, say “I’m a guy”

//////////////////

It was a dig at SCM. Try to keep up.

#206 paul on 02.09.18 at 10:44 am

#184 Steven Rowlandson on 02.09.18 at 9:02 am

Garth is there going to be a 5$ coin to replace the 5$ bank note?
——————————————————————–Yes,and getting rid of the nickel.
No inflation ? lol

#207 SCD on 02.09.18 at 10:45 am

#162 Widening Gyre on 02.09.18 at 3:12 am – It is much easier to admit to being a woman, then to admit to being a landlady on this site. However, both happen to be true.

#208 Smoking Man on 02.09.18 at 10:45 am

Christ I feel like bugs bunny. Band from Twitter for 12 hours.

I called T2, GM. Butts and the entire liberal party in one word what people in the UK call a cigarette. Ok. I know where the line is now. Drinking and tweeting is dangerous and fun at the same time.

So I click the link to start the count down to open my account. And there it was. I have zero recollection typing. Quite shocking to say the leased.

Jack Daniels can be a bugger at times.

#209 dharma bum on 02.09.18 at 10:48 am

“Twenty-three years ago I wrote a book forecasting a retirement crisis about now. Bingo. Here.” – Garth
——————————————————————–

Yah, and I read that book, cover to cover, back then.
Now, thanks to Garth, I am retired. 58 years old.

In honour of yesterday’s market performance, I skied a run here in Telluride, Colorado called “The Plunge”!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01vFVnHehps

#210 Smoking Man on 02.09.18 at 10:51 am

#204 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.09.18 at 10:22 am
#194 Smoking Man on 02.09.18 at 9:46 am

Pretty simple Smokey if you took the time to do 2 minutes of research rather than confirmation bias. ZeroHedge is rotting your brain man.
…..

The CBC and stats can are your sources…bahaha

I’ll take my chances with the zero guy and Brietbart.

#211 conan on 02.09.18 at 10:57 am

#200 Victor V on 02.09.18 at 10:07 am

“U.S. stocks soar following global declines”

Really?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C35DrtPlUbc

#212 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.09.18 at 11:03 am

Burning my 2 post free speech per thread quota for this.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/economy-sheds-88000-jobs-unemployment-rate-climbs/article37917112/

Job losses were heaviest in the services sector, which shed 71,900 positions in industries including educational services, finance, insurance and real estate. Among goods-producing firms, the construction sector saw the biggest decline, losing 14,900 jobs.

Ontario had the biggest jobs decline among the provinces, shedding 50,900 positions on a drop in part-time work.

***The job losses were spread across industries and included higher paid work, according to the statistics agency. Employment in the food and accommodation sector, where many workers make minimum wage, was little changed.***

——–

Sorry boomers! Facts matter.

#213 Stan Brooks on 02.09.18 at 11:08 am

#173 Ace Goodheart on 02.09.18 at 7:02 am
RE: #168 Stan Brooks on 02.09.18 at 5:20 am
“BTW both the liberals and the nazis (who btw were national socialists/liberals) love do hold rallies/parades to emotionally connect with the people.”

Whatever T2 is, he’s not a Nazi. Not sure why anyone would make that comparison.

I see T2 as a rather unfortunate fellow, who is the kind of guy who would be the life of a party, very good with the ladies, probably a great friend, but without any leadership qualities. He cannot make decisions unless someone is telling him what to do (hence the attraction to special interest groups), he “tries to hard” to please, he does not have any backbone, and he has no “compass” ie he doesn’t have a clear direction.

He is certainly no Adolf Hitler. He is more along the lines of Mr. Bean. Clumsy, not incredibly intelligent, and aiming to please without really having a clue what he’s doing.

He should have stayed in drama teaching.

————————————

I am not saying he is Hitler.
That will be huge offence even to him/T2 and very unfair.

But he is certainly not Mr. Bean.

Don’t be blind-sighted by his supposed good intention.

What I have seen (so far) from his government that frightens me:

1. Make quickly and in haste very important decisions like the assault on small Businesses that normally require years to think over and discuss in very aggressive arrogant manner. Using staged appearances and without listening to feedback at all.

2. Complete ignorance of other’s opinion. Just look at the attack the butts is launching when his protege screwed up, pathetic and very dangerous at the same time. Indications on how much more could be in store,

3. Acknowledged ethical violators – vacations on private islands and yachts, refusal to reimburse government expenses, failure to register blind trust, declare french villa, introduce laws that benefit private companies where they own shares, suspicious stocks sales at the right time.

4. Aggressive and arrogant counter-attacks every time when somebody points to their errors and mistakes.

These people are not liberals but elitists hijacking the liberal party who have nothing but contempt for the regular people.
Compare them with the like of Ignatieff.

5. They bought up the media with taxpayer money – look at the scandal with CBC financing.

6. They openly introduce non-existing problems like religion-phobia, gender discrimination etc, in the most tolerant nation on earth!

—————————-

Did you see how T2 rejected the veterans in his interview?

This is cold blood shark (with limited IQ) but a killer, nonetheless.

Be aware, be very aware of T2.

#214 Ronaldo on 02.09.18 at 11:16 am

#144 MoistMillenial on 02.08.18 at 11:35 pm

I’m a millenial and I don’t want to save for my retirement because everyone I know who has ever retired has either died a year later or gotten really sick and not been able to enjoy life at that age so I’d rather live it up now. thanks for listening.
————————————————————-
And I am willing to bet you are still in your parents basement sponging off of them right?

#215 Guy in Calgary on 02.09.18 at 11:18 am

#55 steph on 02.08.18 at 7:00 pm

Tesla is by all accounts, structurally bankrupt. They are a cash incinerator. Go listen to the earnings call and read the balance sheets.

“Guys we have an earnings call and they’re crap what are we going to do?”

“Well, we could send one of our Roadsters into orbit to distract people.”

“Perfect!”

#216 common sense on 02.09.18 at 11:39 am

From zero hedge:

So the question is – have interest rates ‘ever’ gone up for the right reason?

Or is this narrative just one more bullshit line from a desperate industry of asset-gatherers and commission-takers?

It does make one wonder what the relationship between US government ‘interest costs’ and global money flow really is. Does an engineered equity tumble spark safe-haven-buying and ease the pain as deficits and debt loads soar. It would certainly help as $300bn additional budget deals are passed, The Fed has left the game, and China is threatening to be a seller not a buyer…

#217 Guy in Calgary on 02.09.18 at 11:40 am

#109 IHCTD9 on 02.08.18 at 9:18 pm

Disagree. Having financial discipline is important, but you are only young once. People will look back on their youth and they can have good memories of travel and fun or, boring memories of missing out because they thought being thrifty would lead to happiness.

On my death bed I don’t want to look back and be thinking “that was one hell of an emergency fund I saved, what a great life. Was totally worth missing out on fun experiences with friends to have that sweet, sweet emergency fund”

Balance my friend.

#218 aa5 on 02.09.18 at 11:40 am

#166 Stan Brooks… ‘Pathetic, but this is what Canadians apparently like and want, to be crushed, taxed and called Nazis, the most tolerant nation on earth by far to be called phobic on religion, gender etc.’..

Strangely a lot of people like being scolded as well for their evil ways. Before modern political correctness, we had white Christian guilt. For all the sins and unpure thoughts the people had, and blaming the people for the ‘coming Armageddon.’

For the class society, everyone says they don’t want to be that. Yet in most societies people want to empower the state to enforce their position in the class society. Even if they are at the 60% level, they are more scared of falling downwards than they are ambitious of rising up. And the only way to have security of staying at 60% is for the state to have things like licenses, permits, regulatory barriers, etc.

While on some level they might want to take down the Trudeau’s and Morneau’s of the society.. they also know that if those families can be taken down, then their own families position in the class society is insecure.

#219 dennis on 02.09.18 at 11:53 am

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-defence-canada/philippines-to-cancel-233-million-helicopter-deal-with-canada-idUSKBN1FT20Y

Lots of job losses here. Trudeau seems to have a way of pissing off the Philippine President again. Trudeau should worry about his own back yard first and stop being a morality Cop.

#220 Ride the waves on 02.09.18 at 11:55 am

#208 Smoking Man on 02.09.18 at 10:45 am

Christ I feel like bugs bunny. Band from Twitter for 12 hours.

I called T2, GM. Butts and the entire liberal party in one word what people in the UK call a cigarette. Ok. I know where the line is now. Drinking and tweeting is dangerous and fun at the same time.

So I click the link to start the count down to open my account. And there it was. I have zero recollection typing. Quite shocking to say the leased.

Jack Daniels can be a bugger at times.

learn to surf dude…. what a waste of sun and sea

#221 For those about to flop... on 02.09.18 at 12:00 pm

For anyone interested in Gypcoin or Gyptocurrency…

M43BC

“Visualizing the History of Bitcoin Crashes: Are Hodlers Prepared for the Next Bull Run?

The latest Bitcoin crash has some investors believing the “end of days” are near. Once bullish “hodlers” and committed individuals now voice their concerns and fears that this crash indicates that the cryptocurrency market may be faced with a new normal. While the latest crash has been painful, it is best to step back and assess the current state of Bitcoin relative to its past. Bitcoin has “crashed” many times over the past several years, but how does this latest downturn compare to past steep sell offs?

In order to compare the most recent Bitcoin crash to other past panics, we decided to create a visual that clearly shows twelve other times that the top cryptocurrency has sold off. Each box represents a specific time period in which the price of Bitcoin came under extreme selling pressure. Using the BitStamp Bitcoin-to-U.S.-Dollar (BTC/USD) pair, our team found the specific highs and lows of the past crashes dating back to January 2012. Utilizing a blue arrow, we highlight the percentage of value lost during each sell off. Lastly, we measured the length of each specific crash period by stating the number of days the correction ultimately lasted.
This Is Not Bitcoin’s First Rodeo, Top Crypto Has History Of Surviving Crashes

Despite the steep 70% losses during the latest cryptocurrency sell off, this is not an unusual event for Bitcoin. Since January 2012, there have been thirteen major corrections or crashes in Bitcoin, including this latest rout. Losses have been as minimal as 30% and as severe as 87% during these Bitcoin panics. Compared to its past events, this latest correction was not even as severe or painful as it has been in the past.

The latest correction took place between December 17, 2017 and February 6, 2018, or 48 days, in which 70% of Bitcoin value was lost. However, if you look at the period between April 10, 2013 and April 12, 2013, Bitcoin lost an astounding 83% of its value over a three-day period. Talk about a panic! The point is that crashes have become relatively common throughout the cryptocurrency market, which is known for its swift volatility. It is important to turn to data and the facts in times of turmoil, rather than relying on one’s emotions.

Here is a breakdown of the visual, showing each of the corrections in Bitcoin by date of occurrence. It will also include the percent of value loss and the length of the correction in number of days:

1. January 12, 2012 – January 27, 2012, -30%, 16 Days

2. August 17, 2012 – August 19, 2012, -57%, 3 Days

3. March 6, 2013 – March 7, 2013, -33%. 2 Days

4. March 21, 2013 – March 23, 2013, -35%, 3 Days

5. April 10, 2013 – April 12, 2013, -83%, 3 Days

6. November 19, 2013 – November 19, 2013, -50%, 1 Day

7. November 30, 2013 – January 14, 2015, -87%, 411 Days

8. March 10, 2017 – March 25, 2017, -34%, 16 Days

9. May 25, 2017 – May 27, 2017, -33%, 3 Day

10. June 12, 2017 – July 16, 2017, -39%, 35 Days

11. September 2, 2017 – September 15, 2017, -40%, 14 Days

12. November 8, 2017 – November 12, 2017, -30%, 5 Days

13. December 17, 2017 – February 6, 2018, -70%, 48 Days

Overall, the latest correction in the price of Bitcoin is nothing out of the ordinary. History shows that the top cryptocurrency has sustained much more rapid losses during a shorter period of time over the course of the past several years, yet it has not discouraged long-term investors. Regulatory crackdown fears seem to be main source of the latest crash, but the recent cryptocurrency regulatory hearing before the U.S. Senate struck a much brighter tone than crypto traders had anticipated. This shows that fears of regulators attempting to shut down the cryptocurrency market are overblown. In the end, cryptocurrency is still a very relatively new concept that will have its highs and lows, but its resilience in the face of uncertainty has been nothing short of incredible.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/bitcoin-all-major-crashes

#222 sleepingdragon on 02.09.18 at 12:02 pm

@#150 Ronaldo
Legitimate question to any of the knowledgables out there: how did USDCAD react during the fall of 2008 when everything was collapsing before our eyes. It seems like there was flight to USD for safety but can any of you grey bearded blog dogs confirm this?

I was but a greenhorn during the GFC, and knew little of what was actually happening until later on.

Had you been paying attention the Canadian dollar is correlated with the price of oil. Go back to 2014 prior to the collapse in the price of oil. You would have discovered that the Canadian $ was on par with the US.

Fortunately I hedged gold for about $1130 and then the Canadian dollar dropped when the price of oil collapsed. I didn’t make much on the price of gold but a hefty profit on the currency when I sold.

#223 Failure to Launch on 02.09.18 at 12:14 pm

#202 Bitcoinaire on 02.09.18 at 10:13 am
@Stocks down 10% in a correction. Bitcoin down 60% in a crash.
Good morning Garth!
Crypto also had a run-up that was magnitudes larger. Emergent markets tend be that way. Ethereum and various utility tokens are the things to be watching out for this year, including those that interface with the legacy financial markets.
Anyway, I need to groom my cat.

*****************
You might as well talk to your cat since the people on this board have absolutely no imagination.

“We think regardless of the price moves in the last few weeks, it’s still a very under-appreciated asset,” Cameron Winklevoss told CNBC. Tyler chipped in that those who can’t see Bitcoin’s potential are suffering from a “failure of imagination.”

Myself and a group of like-minded individuals are working on a new crypto algo. We scramble the DSM- IV codes to prioritize a blockhead routine in real-time. PM me if you want in.

#224 Westcdn II on 02.09.18 at 12:39 pm

In my introverted ways, I modified my handle to sound more American. It is better than Westcdn jr in my mind. I am not feeling the love from the rest of Canada here in snowy and cold Alberta. I really think this province would be better off as part of the US. It is not a certainty Albertans would be better off but given the risk/reward scenario, I would be having dialogues. Really, my rising tax load, peoplekind, nanny statist bureaucrats and now the consequences of a sjw initiative raising minimum wages are giving me itchy feet. My patience with my current levels of government actions is running out.

We know a lot of part time jobs have vaporized and are unlikely to come back. I am waiting to see what the composition of the gain in full time employment is public or private jobs. I don’t get too excited about private service jobs as they are the most likely to get chopped when money gets tight. It will affect my view of interest rates.

FUD has too long dominated our Canadian economy. Per Wikipedia, Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (often shortened to FUD) is a disinformation strategy used in sales, marketing, public relations, talk radio, politics, religious organizations, and propaganda. FUD is generally a strategy to influence perception by disseminating negative and dubious or false information and a manifestation of the appeal to fear.

No FUD for this guy, formally a peoplekind.

#225 young & foolish on 02.09.18 at 12:42 pm

Volatility and falling knives are back …. oh and job losses …. so much for coming “rate hikes” blog dogs …

#226 Alistiar McLaughlin on 02.09.18 at 12:45 pm

@#217 Guy in Calgary, I focused on “fun” as a young adult. NONE of those memories mean a damned thing to me. Youngsters engage in the superficial, the meaningless, the trivial, and whatever their peers are doing. The phrase “youth is wasted on the young” cannot be understood on the underside of 40. In your 40s, it suddenly makes sense.

So my advice is the exact opposite. Forget fun when you’re young. Set yourself up properly. Make sure you’re a solid income earner by the time you hit your late 20s, and have savings by the time you are 30 and build from there. Because the things important to you in your 20s will be absolutely meaningless by the time you hit 40, if not a source of outright embarrassment.

Only when you get older will you know what your priorities are, what is meaningful to you. You’ll feel awfully foolish having wasted resources pursuing things you thought were worthwhile in your 20s. Those “memories” will be nothing more than reminders of how superficial you once were.

Your response might be “You must have had a boring and $hitty youth.” You’re right. I did. Because I focused on having “fun” (I put ‘fun’ in quotations because what I thought was fun in my 20s seems like juvenile asininity now). Anyone with any maturity whatsoever must look back at their 20s and say “What an effin’ idiot I was back then.” If not, they either A) Really made use of their 20s to become accomplished at a young age, or B) Haven’t matured enough to see the tragedy of their wasted youth.

#227 M on 02.09.18 at 12:49 pm

In terms of absolute value investment, Canada is a pigmey:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_ownership_of_companies_of_Canada

Nothing wrong with that. Implicitly shows Canada a good place to do business in. However… when the players (all of them) run for the exits to cover debt, margin calls and the crap their worthless bonds generated, they will sell “profitable” to cover for “unprofitable”. Which leaves secondary /tertiary markets holding the bag (russia, thailand 1997 for example). Meaning that pigging at the trough is far mor damaging for economies living at the mercy of foreigners. Ergo..the dynamic of “fall’ in Canada is substantial different than US.
That lil’ schmuck calling himself a PM doesn’t own enough paper for the QE Canada will need to subsist.
And we don’t know if the gringo Fed will bail out Canadian banks AGAIN:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/banks-got-114b-from-governments-during-recession-1.1145997

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K_N0uOXkQA

Responsible forces in Canada KNOW this so they introduced the bail-in:
http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/new-bail-in-regime-for-canadian-banks-will-ease-burden-on-taxpayer-in-case-of-crisis

..which is the right thing to do.

Arogant remarks that “Canada is not Cyprus” (where the experiment with bail ins and negative yield bonds began) will not buy food or clothing.

So yes.. gringo land is a correction (until the big adjustment will hit for real in 6 months or so) but for canadian entity the adjustment to a new reality have already started. A 2-3000 (optimistically) on the tsx sound just about right. Mortgage rates at 22% with avg housing matching avg REAL salaries at 1.5 to 2.5 times are on their way.

Faster it happens better it is for the start of the real sound saving based economy.

#228 n1tro on 02.09.18 at 12:53 pm

#140 tccontrarian on 02.08.18 at 11:20 pm

$100,000 says the Dow is going <12,000 in 36 months or less!
I know someone willing to make this bet. Any takers?

TCC
————————–
I'm not doubting your strategy but at least break out the reasons (high level anyways) as to why the DOW will be less than 12,000 so there can be some dialogue because this blog has been accused of being an "echo chamber".

#229 conan on 02.09.18 at 12:53 pm

#219 dennis on 02.09.18 at 11:53 am

Do you work at this company?
Otherwise……

https://imgur.com/gallery/eVlOrfo

This guy condones murder in the street. Yes, its against drug dealers, but sometimes its against innocence. Sanctioned murder in the first degree.

No doubt in my mind what this guy wants to do with those helicopters. Instead, he is going to buy his weapons from our enemies. Maybe even ally with them, then back stab us.

Guy is a clown.

#230 n1tro on 02.09.18 at 1:01 pm

#153 SoggyShorts on 02.09.18 at 1:12 am
#28 Penny Henny on 02.08.18 at 6:21 pm
#20 Penny Henny on 02.08.18 at 6:14 pm
You want to know why women are less likely to have a financial plan for retirement?
Well I’ll tell you Garth. Too much testosterone on this blog.

How does that even make sense? – Garth
/////////////////

Let me explain.
If your female readership didn’t get turned off of this blog because of some of the dinks on here they would be more likely to keep on reading and following your advice.
But what would I know, I am a boy.
If you are, you’d be the first male over 18 who has ever referred to themselves as “a boy”.
protip:if for some reason you want to lie about your gender, say “I’m a guy”
—————————-
Penny Henny a “boy”? That makes her 2nd. SCM was the first to claim to be a “boy” earlier this year.

#231 IHCTD9 on 02.09.18 at 1:03 pm

#217 Guy in Calgary on 02.09.18 at 11:40 am
#109 IHCTD9 on 02.08.18 at 9:18 pm

Disagree. Having financial discipline is important, but you are only young once. People will look back on their youth and they can have good memories of travel and fun or, boring memories of missing out because they thought being thrifty would lead to happiness.

On my death bed I don’t want to look back and be thinking “that was one hell of an emergency fund I saved, what a great life. Was totally worth missing out on fun experiences with friends to have that sweet, sweet emergency fund”

Balance my friend.
___________________

I guess it all boils down to what each individual sees as important in life.

I have many good memories of my youth with family and friends – but none required exotic locations or possessions to realize.

To me, youth is for busting your ass working and setting yourself up. I did that, and would have forever regretted squandering my “prime of life” time if I hadn’t.

Maybe some folks do receive lasting happiness through spending money on themselves, but I find that hard to believe.

To each his own I guess, it is feasible that one could do both spending and investing if handled with care.

#232 Gonkman on 02.09.18 at 1:09 pm

#219 dennis on 02.09.18 at 11:53 am
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-defence-canada/philippines-to-cancel-233-million-helicopter-deal-with-canada-idUSKBN1FT20Y
Lots of job losses here. Trudeau seems to have a way of pissing off the Philippine President again. Trudeau should worry about his own back yard first and stop being a morality Cop.

******************************************

Every time he opens his mouth Canada loses.

Glad I sold off half of my CDN Equity ETF yesterday and moved them into International and US.

TSX Closing – May 12, 2015 15,127.00
Currently 300ish Pts below closing of almost 3 years ago.

TSX Tanking yet again today with Job Numbers. Down 1.63% and counting for the day.

No point investing in Canada at this point until this Clown of PM is Punted to the curb.

#233 Stan Brooks on 02.09.18 at 1:13 pm

Of course the jobs ‘gains’ from the past were all part time jobs.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/newsalert-statistics-canada-says-economy-133341775.html

400 k gained in a year and T2 praising his ‘star’ financial minister, now 88 k lost in a single month and not a word of critique?

#234 New West on 02.09.18 at 1:22 pm

#162 Widening Gyre

Nice to meet you! Another very occasional poster and constant reader here, female, posting under a neutral handle. I agree with you that there are probably a large number of female readers here who don’t post because they are just weary of the general frat-house atmosphere that some posters (SM, I’m looking at you) create, which really detracts from all the excellent information and thoughtful posts on this site.

At the risk of clogging up the blog with a fresh barrage of gender-based insults, threats, and sneers, I’ll be happy to out myself.

F60BC

#235 IHCTD9 on 02.09.18 at 1:26 pm

With all the Trudeau/Wynne stupidity sloshing around, I keep focused by reminding myself that it is the Canadian people that want this type of leadership.

Yes, both these birdbrains turned out to be much worse than anyone could have guessed, but deep down we all know that Canadians will vote them back in again – maybe even with a majority. Just say “Harper” and Canadians will commit acts of self immolation just from the visual.

Canadians, yes the folks who have piled the debt a mile high both public and household. The same folks faking a lifestyle in our big cities. The same folks bidding up slash pile houses to obscene prices. The same ones borrowing against their homes and making interest only payments.

Yes, I am talking about the dumbest people on the planet. They haven’t got a clue, and the evidence is everywhere.

If you can’t really escape (like me) by moving, it’s time to think about cutting your taxes. Offsetting your fees. Reducing your gasoline and heating fuel useage. Shoveling cash into RRSPs. It’s time to pay them less, and take back more.

Canadians won’t think differently until each individual household experiences some real worry, real discomfort – real fear.

#236 Smoking Man on 02.09.18 at 1:51 pm

SCM

Back in the day when you were just a dirty smile on your father’s face something big happend.

On Sept 11th 2001

Building 7 fell at free fall speed. Was not hit by a plane.
To this date those MSM outlets you always quote never ever talk about it.

They are sycronized propaganda outlets promoting the globalism agenda which harms western millenials and there parents.

You have amazing writing skills but unfortunately they are connected to a pre-programmed agenda in your head that you don’t even know you have.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics

#237 Grey Dog on 02.09.18 at 2:05 pm

Last night listening to Hillary Clinton’s audiobook “What Happened”…one out of the box line woke me up, she said “rather than paying income tax every year, they should be taxing ‘net worth’.”

#238 Texaco Ranger on 02.09.18 at 2:10 pm

#224 Westcdn II on 02.09.18 at 12:39 pm
In my introverted ways, I modified my handle to sound more American. It is better than Westcdn jr in my mind. I am not feeling the love from the rest of Canada here in snowy and cold Alberta. I really think this province would be better off as part of the US. It is not a certainty Albertans would be better off but given the risk/reward scenario, I would be having dialogues.
……. FUD has too long dominated our Canadian economy.

**********

I agree that FUD is bad. Do you agree that Harpie started it in Canada because George Dubya made it look so easy?
I believe in the right to self-determination, but I am not so sure the Yanks would give you the love you desire . Why buy the cow when you can get the milk at such a discount ?

Your economy is a one-trick pony. Turn some of that oil into liquid plastic and other petrochemicals and ship that Alberta wine to Asia and beyond. Invest in some reactors to boil your bitumen and sell the rest to California. The Heritage Fund could have done so much more than just buy Conservative votes.

Don’t blame the rest of Canada for your Provincial Party failings, or your temporary insanity (re: the NDP). Now Jason Kenny is going to “unite” who exactly? Is it a subtle come-on to the US of A. The best you could get is Puerto Rican status. Is that what you really want? And what will you do with all the Newfies? They won’t be able to go back to the “Rock” in the winter and get the pogie. Just think on it for a spell, partner.

#239 conan on 02.09.18 at 2:10 pm

Anyone else scratching their head on this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zw8PZ12_-LQ

Is it representative and/or symbolic to Korea in any meaningful way?

Late night cable?

#240 Midnights on 02.09.18 at 2:26 pm

Lmao…
Know one talks about Global Warming like
Mr Pena.
https://www.facebook.com/ThePissedOffAmerican/videos/588406524845248/

#241 Penny Henny on 02.09.18 at 2:27 pm

For n1tro
see #205

#242 Screwed Canadian Millennial Imposter on 02.09.18 at 2:27 pm

That pooch looks like the gay version of Garth lol.
Yours gender neutrally,
-Screwed Canadian Millennial imposter

#243 For those about to flop... on 02.09.18 at 2:34 pm

pm
#162 Widening Gyre

Nice to meet you! Another very occasional poster and constant reader here, female, posting under a neutral handle. I agree with you that there are probably a large number of female readers here who don’t post because they are just weary of the general frat-house atmosphere that some posters (SM, I’m looking at you) create, which really detracts from all the excellent information and thoughtful posts on this site.

At the risk of clogging up the blog with a fresh barrage of gender-based insults, threats, and sneers, I’ll be happy to out myself.

F60BC

/////////////////////

I,for one have always been glad that there is a female presence on the blog.

Used to stick up for you girls a lot more against the guys on here who want to turn it into a sausage party.

A lady named Cindy wrote me a nice message yesterday thanking me for my Pink Posts,and this is what I prefer to focus my time on instead.

Just yesterday someone who wanted to dispute that anyone in Vancouver is losing money on real estate by speculating that they have deals on the side to make up some of the difference decided that instead of presenting any evidence the best course of action was to call me Miss Pink Snow.

There are people on here who come to start arguments and moan each day and there are others who come to share information and have a laugh.

Guess which camp I am in…

M43BC

#244 Stan Brooks on 02.09.18 at 2:49 pm

#235 IHCTD9 on 02.09.18 at 1:26 pm

Mind the RRSPs. If they can steal doctors investments in the professional corporations, do you think your RRSP is safe?

https://canadianmarketreview.com/2013/04/26/rrsps-are-a-government-trap/

http://nomadcapitalist.com/2015/02/20/retirement-account-confiscation-portugal/

There are more important entities in this place than us, so their needs will be served first:

– governments at all levels that are highly indepted
– all oligopolies in gas, energy, retail, insurance, banking, pharmacy, communications
– all external creditors
– all unions and their pensions
– baby boomers/huge vote count
…….

so what will be left for you from your RRSP?

…………………..

Some will deny the possibility that the government would ever confiscate the assets in retirement accounts. But why wouldn’t they? There is ample historical precedent for confiscation. Heck, the United States nationalized its mortgage industry to “save the economy” just a few years ago. Why wouldn’t Western democracies do so with retirement accounts, under the pretense of protecting citizens’ hard-earned savings?

Of course, the confiscation would be sneaky. In a major crisis, retirement accounts would be devastated. The high (nominal) gains for long-term savers would diminish. A government would declare that the safety of people’s retirement cannot be left to the heartless whims of the market. Therefore, the government would nationalize those accounts and replace the assets with “loonie bonds” or some such thing. The bonds would have a “guaranteed” return of, say, 3%.

Those bonds would not be marketable and represent nothing more than an accounting trick by the government. Since the government would be broke, the retirement accounts would have to be covered with general revenues. It would simply be a huge transfer of wealth from younger people to older people. This completely distorts the natural state of society, where older people help the younger people, because they have more accumulated wealth.

CONCLUSION

Do you trust the government? If so, then maybe the RRSP is right for you. If you lack such trust, then be careful about dumping piles of money into one. You’ll probably be regret it someday. Take responsibility for your after-tax income and don’t delude yourself into thinking the government is trying to do you a favor.

———————————–

#227 M on 02.09.18 at 12:49 pm
Excellent observations.

#245 conan on 02.09.18 at 2:53 pm

Some say this was the best Olympic torch lighting.

https://youtu.be/Fca-MbAKOV0?t=63

#246 Tater on 02.09.18 at 2:53 pm

#185 Tater on 02.09.18 at 9:03 am
#41 tccontrarian on 02.08.18 at 6:34 pm
“As explained often, US markets have advanced on the back of record corporate profits, robust job creation and booming consumer confidence – now augmented by tax cuts. This long-term trend is far from over.” – Garth
======================================

$100,000 says the Dow is going <12,000 in 36 months or less!
I know someone willing to make this bet. Any takers?

TCC

—————————————————————–
Seriously interested in this bet. What are the odds he is expecting?

#247 Looney Baloney on 02.09.18 at 3:32 pm

#28 Penny Henny on 02.08.18 at 6:21 pm
Lol, of course it is always a man’s fault.

#58 dgb on 02.08.18 at 7:02 pm
Math is hard, ain’t it?

#248 Worried on 02.09.18 at 3:33 pm

“and is systematically raising taxes on small business owners, the self-employed, higher income-earners, investors (soon)”

More details on the latter bit please, Garth! :(

#249 aa5 on 02.09.18 at 3:33 pm

#243 M43BC… ‘Just yesterday someone who wanted to dispute that anyone in Vancouver is losing money on real estate by speculating that they have deals on the side to make up some of the difference decided that instead of presenting any evidence the best course of action was to call me Miss Pink Snow.’

I got to admit that is a very creative explanation the housing bulls have come up with.. so they can still keep believing their faith that house prices only go up.

Even if/when prices fall 50%, they will still be able to say, ‘we don’t know the side deals that were involved, I know someone, etc..’

#250 Smoking Mans Psychiatrist on 02.09.18 at 3:37 pm

#236 Smoking Man on 02.09.18 at 1:51 pm

SCM
Back in the day when you were just a dirty smile on your father’s face something big happend.
On Sept 11th 2001
Building 7 fell at free fall speed. Was not hit by a plane.
To this date those MSM outlets you always quote never ever talk about it.
They are sycronized propaganda outlets promoting the globalism agenda which harms western millenials and there parents.
You have amazing writing skills but unfortunately they are connected to a pre-programmed agenda in your head that you don’t even know you have.
Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
You make a fool of yourself Smoking Man with your Alex Jones sponsored websites propagating such drivel.
Me thinks you have a PHD in Whackjobinomics. Dam every time we let you out of the ward you go and start blabbering such scheissen.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/design/a3524/4278874/

#251 NoName on 02.09.18 at 4:04 pm

#237 Grey Dog on 02.09.18 at 2:05 pm
Last night listening to Hillary Clinton’s audiobook “What Happened”…one out of the box line woke me up, she said “rather than paying income tax every year, they should be taxing ‘net worth’.”
—-
Income is stagnant for some time now and, “only” money left to be taxed is liquid and non liquid wealth from “old” people.

https://imgur.com/a/dHAli

#252 Penny Henny on 02.09.18 at 4:11 pm

What a wild ride on the US markets today. Dow was down almost 500 pts at one point and ends up closing up 330.
ZPR and CPD not feeling the love today. Both down almost 1 %

#253 LOL on 02.09.18 at 4:17 pm

@ #168 Stan Brooks: No, the Nazis were not liberal you moron.

#254 Smoking Man on 02.09.18 at 4:23 pm

#250 Smoking Mans Psychiatrist on 02.09.18 at 3:37 pm
The article in popular mechanics complete bull shit.

Go here for peer review papers by engineers and architects.

http://www.ae911truth.org

#255 IHCTD9 on 02.09.18 at 4:29 pm

#244 Stan Brooks on 02.09.18 at 2:49 pm
#235 IHCTD9 on 02.09.18 at 1:26 pm

Mind the RRSPs. If they can steal doctors investments in the professional corporations, do you think your RRSP is safe?
————-

I don’t think it’s safe, and I expect some pilfering policies to be enacted by the time I retire. If it ever came to our government outright stealing from Canadians’ life savings, then Canada would be a banana republic at that point and “game over” would have already flashed on the screen. Everyone would be looking to get out as Canada would be on the doorstep of joining the third world.

I have thought about this, and came to the conclusion that it would be worse to arrive at retirement with nothing, than to have a mil and then have the gov steal some of it. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that, as only the broke and indebted would remain in this country if it did.

#256 Overheardyou on 02.09.18 at 4:34 pm

#91 Steve on 02.08.18 at 8:13 pm

——-

Sounds like you’re spending too much or didn’t plan accordingly. Stop blaming others for your problems.

#257 tccontrarian on 02.09.18 at 4:47 pm

#246 Tater on 02.09.18 at 2:53 pm
————————————————————-
$100,000 says the Dow is going $20 million), is already ‘betting’ on this via short positions which are worth several million already.
But, the problem with being ‘contrarian’ is that you don’t want the spot-light on you and thus alert the m-asses.

The statement stands – just track it and remember it so that you can see who’s right or wrong. Speaking of ‘tracking’ etc.
I saw Dennis Gartmann on BNN today predicting a big bear market – and so I covered some of my short positions immediately! D.G. is one of the best contrarian indicators known to man!
Just google his (in)famous call on oil in 2016! I should be thankful – as he helped me make money!

TCC

#258 Stan Brooks on 02.09.18 at 4:54 pm

#253 LOL on 02.09.18 at 4:17 pm

@ #168 Stan Brooks: No, the Nazis were not liberal you moron.

——————————–

Well I guess you know European history better then I/not.

Ever been to a concentration camp? You should, get prepared.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2017-08-18-fact-check-nazi-stands-for-national-socialism-and-adolf-hitler-was-a-radical-left-wing-fascist-not-a-far-right-leader.html

#259 Stan Brooks on 02.09.18 at 4:58 pm

https://itsnobody.wordpress.com/2011/08/19/the-nazi-party-a-left-wing-liberal-movement/

“We are socialists, we are enemies of today’s capitalistic economic system for the exploitation of the economically weak, with its unfair salaries, with its unseemly evaluation of a human being according to wealth and property instead of responsibility and performance, and we are determined to destroy this system under all conditions”

– Adolf Hitler, Hitler’s speech on May 1, 1927. Cited in: Toland, John (1992). Adolf Hitler. Anchor Books. pp. 224–225. ISBN 0385037244.

#260 Mark on 02.09.18 at 5:21 pm

“Glad I sold off half of my CDN Equity ETF yesterday and moved them into International and US. “

Really, really smart. Selling off something that hasn’t gone anywhere in a decade, and buying stuff that has doubled in the same interval.

Good luck with that. Its such brash emotionalism that causes most self-directed investors to underperform and allows folks like Garth, utilizing pretty simple and relatively unsophisticated rebalance strategies, to solidly outperform nearly all DIY investors most of the time. Easily earning his modest professional fees.

#261 Newcomer on 02.09.18 at 6:25 pm

#217 Guy in Calgary on 02.09.18 at 11:40 am
……
Disagree. Having financial discipline is important, but you are only young once.
——-

Agree. Here’s another thing. If you don’t do hard, risky stuff when you are young, you won’t have the skills to do it when you are older. If you move to a small town when you are 25 and buy bulk pasta from Costco, so you can put your money in ETFs every month, you are not going to feel very relaxed ordering good wine in Rome or haggling over the cost of a donkey ride in the Andes when you are 65.

As you said, balance.

#262 bubu on 02.09.18 at 7:47 pm

#88 MPACI, 20% plus DB for both of us…

#263 Ace Goodheart on 02.09.18 at 8:03 pm

RE: #237 Grey Dog on 02.09.18 at 2:05 pm
Last night listening to Hillary Clinton’s audiobook “What Happened”…one out of the box line woke me up, she said “rather than paying income tax every year, they should be taxing ‘net worth’.”

Another reason why Old Hil’ didn’t win the election.

Her ideas were so wonky that people who never voted for anyone before and hated the system, voted for Trump just as a protest vote to keep her out.

Imagine if they actually tried to do that (tax net worth).

It would be sunshine year in the off shore havens. BVI here we come…….

#264 Suzzane Spers on 02.09.18 at 9:11 pm

People with less than $50,000 saved: 19%
People with absolutely nothing saved: 30%

How are there more people with nothing saved than with less than $50,000 saved? Are they not included in both categories? By definition if you have saved nothing than you have saved $0 which is less than $50k

#265 morrey on 02.10.18 at 12:44 am

@crowdedelevatorfartz
have you seen me pontificate about Finances?

But you strike me as over your head…

#266 theoryAndPractice on 02.10.18 at 8:52 am

#264 Suzzane Spers on 02.09.18 at 9:11 pm
People with less than $50,000 saved: 19%
People with absolutely nothing saved: 30%

How are there more people with nothing saved than with less than $50,000 saved? Are they not included in both categories? By definition if you have saved nothing than you have saved $0 which is less than $50k
=========================

“People with less than $50,000 saved (but not absolutely nothing saved…) ”

It is probably better to tell like below for clarity ;
$1-50K @ %19
$0 @ %30
$0-$50K @ %49

#267 LivinLarge on 02.10.18 at 11:18 am

“Mind the RRSPs. If they can steal doctors investments in the professional corporations, do you think your RRSP is safe?”…of course it isn’t “safe”, nothing is truly ever safe.

I never really thought we’d have a top marginal rate over 50% or the wholesale looting of trusts we got in 2016 but we did.

On the positive side though, when the pendulum swings too far in any direction there’s always a sudden reversal. “Every generation sends their hero up the pop charts”. I’m no fan of T2 (surprises me too) but I detested helmet head just as much and the NDP are only there to reduce the chances of another dynastic government.