As January goes

RYAN  By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

I’ll admit it, I have the winter blues.

Right around this time every year myself, along with millions of other Canadians, start to feel the effects of our cold and at times grueling winters (Victoria aside currently at a balmy 11 degrees!). The cold weather, trudging around in the wet snow, the lack of sunlight and short days all contribute to occasional bouts of depression and us just trying to get through it. Thankfully our family has a vacation to look forward to in March, and the markets have been kind to us with the S&P 500 posting a solid 5.5% gain in January. With the S&P 500 posting a January gain we have a positive hit for the “January Barometer”, which is a well-known market theory stipulating that a positive return in January often predicts further gains for the rest of the year, hence the expression, “as January goes, so goes the rest of the year”. In this week’s blog we examine the historical returns based on the January Barometer and see what this theory suggests for the rest of the year.

In 1972, John Hirsch, founder of the always useful Trader’s Almanac, uncovered a market tendency for the US equity markets to do well in a particular year when the S&P 500 posts a positive return during the month of January.

While there is no specific explanation for this market trend, I simply view it as, if the markets start off on the right foot, often, but not always, the market ends up on the right foot by the end of the year. Of course, there are some that dispute this market indicator believing there is no predictive power. I disagree and the evidence is pretty compelling.

Below I show the results of the January Barometer going back to 1990. Since 1990 there have been 16 years when the S&P 500 posted a positive return in January with 13 of those 16 years, or 81% of the time, the remaining months experiencing a positive rate of return. I don’t know about you, but 81% is a decent hit rate, and I know I always got excited when I got an 81% mark on a school exam (there weren’t as many of those during my keg drinking days at good old University of Windsor).

January Barometer Since 1990

Source: Turner Investments, Bloomberg

Taking a longer term perspective, if we go all the way back to 1945, just after WW2, the results are even more compelling. Since 1945 there have been 45 years when the S&P 500 was up in January, with 38 years, or 84% of the time, the rest of the year being positive. And to boot, returns from February to December were 15.4% on average, when January was positive. If I were a betting man, I would take those odds.

January Barometer Since 1945

Source: Turner Investments, Bloomberg

Now let me temper your excitement as this market theory is by no means fool proof. There are numerous years where it didn’t pan out as shown in the table above – 2011, 2001, and 1994 being the last years when it didn’t work out.

And as this week reminded investors, stocks do go down, and when they do it can be fairly nasty. We saw the S&P 500 and TSX decline roughly 2% over two trading days, which isn’t that much, but after a year of extremely low volatility and no real market weakness since June 2016, it caught some investors (not us) off guard.

We in fact think there will be much higher volatility this year and see the potential for a few pullbacks (5% or more) and maybe even a correction (10% or more) this year. I looked back at the S&P 500 since 1960 and found, on average, that the S&P 500 experiences three 5% pullbacks and one 10% correction each year. With the Federal Reserve starting to tighten, interest rates on the rise and the Mueller investigation heating up, I see no reason why we should not expect some market weakness throughout the year.

Despite this I still believe the equity markets will post a positive return this year and that we’ll look back at the January Barometer as one factor for these gains.

Pullbacks and Corrections are Normal

Source: Turner Investments, Bloomberg
Ryan Lewenza, CFA,CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

163 comments ↓

#1 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.03.18 at 1:19 pm

I have winter blues too. Canada is a terrible place to live. A frozen hellscape half the year. It’s a waste of life and life is so short. I don’t blame Smokey for going to beautiful, blue, liberal, coastal elite, Democratic utopia of southern California. Hell, Mr. Canada, Wayne Gretzky moved there in 88 and hasn’t looked back. Hopefully this is my last year here. Don’t worry boomers, I’ll still be posting.

——-

Anyways on another topic. Looks like Republicans demolished their own entire ideology that tax cuts pay for themselves with trickle down magic. All it took was 1 month!

Federal government will be unable to pay all bills sooner than expected, due to new tax law
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/01/31/federal-debt-limit-deadline-moved-up-to-mid-march-adding-urgency-to-another-congressional-task/

Oopsies…

U.S. Raises Longer-Term Debt Sales as Budget Deficit Worsens
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-31/treasury-lifts-coupon-debt-sales-for-first-time-since-2009

“Fiscal conservative” is the greatest myth in the history of modern day politics.

#2 kommykim on 02.03.18 at 1:21 pm

Your “January Barometer Since 1990” is very misleading since Januarys from several years are missing.

#3 InvestorsFriend on 02.03.18 at 1:29 pm

SCM said:

U.S. Federal government will be unable to pay all bills sooner than expected, due to new tax law

**************************************
That is hilarious. The law of unintended consequences is powerful and often unpredictable.

#4 conan on 02.03.18 at 1:39 pm

? = -22.2 if A happens
?= -44.4 if B happens

Depends on Monday, could be a highway robbery day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZE9KWU-ntBk

#5 Babou on 02.03.18 at 1:50 pm

Isn’t this whole January thing due to the fact that markets rise on average 73% of the time and less because there’s something magical about January? Seems the average performance of the market is awfully close to the January predictive accuracy of 84%…
One way to properly test this theory would be to examine how the market in every month predicted where the market would be in the consecutive months and perhaps you would discover that August was the best “predictor”. Sounds like a lot of voodoo to me though. I suspect that they would all average out somewhere near the 73% accuracy mark since that is on average what the market does. Am I missing something?

#6 Ian on 02.03.18 at 1:50 pm

It is OVER. The chickens have come home to roost.

US bonds are being dumped hand over fist and the 10 year yield curve is going parabolic, and will pass 3% next week. No one wants this junk anymore, and the USD is at a 3.5 year low. It’s going a whole lot lower too.

QE is not available anymore, and the Fed can’t get rid of the 4t on its balance sheet because no one will buy it. The yields are already on fire.

1.2t deficit expected next year. Who will buy those bonds? No one.

It’s done. All this market deformity over the last 12 years is done.

#7 NoName on 02.03.18 at 2:02 pm

One question Ryan, assuming that market will do ok this year with higher pe ratio, what is your take on emerging markets and small caps this year?

#8 Yanniel on 02.03.18 at 2:10 pm

“after a year of extremely low volatility and no real market weakness since June 2016, it caught some investors (not us) off guard.” — Ryan

In what sense Ryan did you guard or prepare against the pull back? Do you mean you moved the portfolio allocation as a way to hedge against the overdue pullbak? Thanks.

#9 Yanniel on 02.03.18 at 2:12 pm

Ryan, do you see the current pullback (or correction) as a buying opportunity? If so, would you buy just the US?

#10 Babou on 02.03.18 at 2:13 pm

I recently enjoyed reading “The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives”. Here is a review from the Guardian. I think it is especially relevant to followers of this blog.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2008/jul/12/saturdayreviewsfeatres.guardianreview4

Here is an interesting excerpt from said review:

One US pundit correctly predicted turns in the stock market for 18 out of 19 calendar years. He claimed no credit for his fiscal ability: he had based his predictions entirely on the performance of one team rather than another in the US Superbowl tournament. That is, he might have been tossing a coin. Some fund managers have a track record of unarguable success, but to attribute financial foresight to them is to misunderstand probability. If there are enough players taking enough plunges, there will always be somebody who chalks up a string of dazzling successes. There was always going to be a winner, but you could only identify the winner after the game was over.

This is called the hot-hand fallacy and it explains why chief executives arrive, claim huge bonuses and then depart clutching their golden parachutes, their winning streaks having ended uncomfortably early. Their careers, like those of many sportsmen, are examples of what statisticians call regression towards the mean: brilliant performances will most likely be followed by lacklustre moments, and those who do badly often do better next time. There are too many things going on – in the financial markets or the sporting arena – for any one player to make much of a difference.

#11 Entrepreneur on 02.03.18 at 2:22 pm

Go outside nearly everyday to try to beat the winter blues, gets the cobwebs out in the mind, cleans it. Get moving, get outside even for a little bit.

On our west coast we have oil spills so would like to see this “world class response” in action with stats to prove it. So far what we see is days before they can get to the spill, days to think how to deal with the damage, days to try their theory then it that doesn’t work try another method. Where is this “world class response?” Prove it!

Oh, btw, #190 No Name, Canada does not even in the top 12 countries for going green. The States near the bottom of the 12. Get with it and get your acts together.

#12 Dissident on 02.03.18 at 2:24 pm

Howdy y’all,

Just spent 2 hours catching up on a whole month of missed posts. Having a new job working with a well-paid, well-heeled SJW lady-boss at a ‘top employer’ company that has ‘womens’ and ‘diversity’ initiatives means I have little time to engage in pointless comment section battles with rednecks and hosers, haha. Right up my SJW alley ;)

And with that perspective, it is entertaining to read about posts regaling “January Dow highs”, in light of this subsequent and current Dow nose-dive. I appreciate how Garth always builds in room for uncertainty in his musings; “expect corrections”. I’m just glad I didn’t go stock shopping right after the holidays. Something told me to “wait and see how this pans out”. I know Jan and Feb are sometimes tepid.

Likewise, I’m mildly impressed with Garth’s restrained comments about #metoo – alas, he is not an animal. Paleo sure, but evidently not an utter savage…

“And I guess that’s the point – to change basic behaviours now that a devastating form of economic punishment has been found outside of the justice system.
Let’s hope it is wielded with common sense. Men are still useful.”

Yes, men are still useful. I’m married to one, and have several as useful friends. I guess men finally start to appreciate the impact of their socially-unacceptable actions once it hits them in the wallet, eh? Because that is what they are, socially-unacceptable actions, now amplified by the use of social media. The pen is finally mightier than the, uh, sword.

And there we have it, another interest rate hike last month. With more to come in the future. Good thing we locked in in the fall. And that’s why I read this blog – not for the useless comment section, which I am ironically posting in right now, but for the heads-up on such important, adult things like rising rates. Because no banker wants you to know what they’ve got in store for your life plans. What a conflict of interest that would be.

Here’s a cute story to reinforce the flagging housing market – a 2B2B condo in my building, exact same floor plan as mine, was listed for $589K in the summer, then relisted for $579K, then completely taken off (poor suckers missed the 2016 spring bubble), then relisted again in the fall for…$449K…and sold for $550 – – – And you know what? Those shysters do not report the multiple listing info – they only want you to see the last number on the market, one which was a convenient “under priced” one, so that they can say that they “sold over asking”! So its no surprise about the recent scandal involving the real estate number blocking by some RE cartel. Really not surprising. Its selective data reporting. If the real numbers were posted, there would be a vastly different story at hand, no doubt.

#13 For those about to flop... on 02.03.18 at 2:28 pm

Thankfully our family has a vacation to look forward to in March-Ryan.L

//////////////////

Hey InfLewenza ,where are you going?

Last year we went to Monterey ,CA. after Turner Travel Agency planted the seed in my head.

Beautiful scenery and will go again one day.

Let’s go two for two.I’m only here for the travel advice.

Financial advice in between holidays is welcome too, I guess…

M43BC

#14 Bezengy on 02.03.18 at 2:44 pm

-36 last night here in Goldtown, I spoke with my daughter this morning, here too she say’s, just take away the ” – ” …smartass.

Poor Justin is caught in the weeds with accusations, allegations, bad behavior, his own conflict of interest admissions, etc. He had the best of intentions and plans, but it’s not working out. Many are calling on him to lead, meaning they want him to stop debating, and start getting things done, kind of like the Harper approach I’d say.

#15 nobody special on 02.03.18 at 2:44 pm

>I have winter blues too. Canada is a terrible place to live. A frozen hellscape half the year.

I think you may have hit upon the reason for the Vancouver/Victoria housing market. Has anyone told the government ?

#16 Cloudy on 02.03.18 at 2:47 pm

Hey Millmech: off topic for today but I’m curious about your thoughts on Vernon real estate. I saw you are watching the market and would like to hear your observations. I just started considering abandoning my post on Vancouver Island for Vernon but friends there day real estate is expensive (had a big recent run-up) and not great for buyers. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Also, do you watch the surrounding area too? Enderby/Armstrong etc. Thanks!

#17 CanMex on 02.03.18 at 2:48 pm

There are 12 missing years in the January Barometer (not counting 2018). If all of those missing years were “misses”, then the positive prediction rate of the Barometer is only 43%, i.e. less than a 50/50 chance. How good is that? Of course, we don’t know the hit/miss results for those missing years, so what use is the exercise?

#18 Dissident on 02.03.18 at 2:52 pm

…Grabbing my popcorn to watch the Dow slip further…so that I can go bargain stock shopping :D

#19 Honey Dripper on 02.03.18 at 2:59 pm

Increasing your odds is the best way to invest. I’m all in in 2018, not selling anything! Thanks for the boost:)

#20 Blacksheep on 02.03.18 at 3:09 pm

Flop the altruistic,

“The listing states that they want to sell to get away from a grumpy neighbor who won’t shut up about potential gains down the road…”
———————————
It must piss you right off that I was telling the truth?

That my hoods lot valuations, are actually what I claimed them to be?

On the topic of honesty, I see right through your ‘for the benefit of others’ agenda.

You really don’t give a shit about people or you would think twice before posting people’s active RE listings with: Price reductions, old buy price or any negative info you can glean, under the assumption that ‘All SELLERS’ that have even the potential of coming out in the red, must be a ‘FLIPPER’ and therefore deserve public dose of ridicule, not to mention the possibility of
f–king up their deal.

Death, divorce, illness or a job loss. There are multiple reasons why people sell RE. Many of these, are people with family’s, just like you and I.

Weren’t you just off work injured? What if you had a mortgage that was just too much to carry and were forced to sell?

Would you want your active RE details splattered all over some anti RE blog, as a sample of bad value?

#21 sleepingdragon on 02.03.18 at 3:12 pm

I predict that the Patriots will win the Super Bowl. Also the next 20 years will not be like the last 20. So prepare yourselves to get by with less.

#22 Mark on 02.03.18 at 3:39 pm

“US bonds are being dumped hand over fist and the 10 year yield curve is going parabolic, and will pass 3% next week. No one wants this junk anymore, and the USD is at a 3.5 year low. It’s going a whole lot lower too.”

Those are my thoughts as well. In the falling rate environment, investors were happy to pick up USD$ bonds as they could not only enjoy a capital gain due to the falling long-term rates, but also a gain on the currency itself as low rates imply currency strengthening due to a reduction in the expansion of the money supply and a reduction in velocity.

But rising rates, that’s deadly. Investors will start factoring in risk premia for both capital losses on the bonds, as well as a depreciating currency. It becomes self-reinforcing.

Where does this leave Canada, and the TSX in particular? In great shape. Canadian firms, much to their historical disadvantage over the past 35-40 years, have positioned themselves to benefit from rising long-term interest rates. By heavily financing their infrastructure with long-term debt (as in the railways, pipelines, mines, and telecoms). By not entering into long-term financial investments (very little of the balance sheets of Canadian banks has terms to maturity exceeding 5 years, and 40%+ of the book can rate reset on an overnight basis!).

Canadian rates are likely to significantly lag the increases in US rates, but unfortunately for leveraged homeowners, the higher rates will be passed onto them, and retail-borrowing Canadians have no reasonable way to defease interest rate risk. The most highly leveraged will be hit the hardest as they almost certainly do not have any exposure to the TSX index stocks which actually be in a position to provide an effective hedge against rising interest rates. Those with reasonable portfolio balance will, of course, not experience the outsized gains likely in the TSX going forward due to rising long-term rates, but certainly didn’t suffer the pain of the last decade of TSX stagnation in the falling rate environment. CAD$ should do well too, making debt repayment even more difficult for CAD$-denominated loans.

#23 El Joko on 02.03.18 at 3:43 pm

#3 InvestorsFriend

Hey, in case you missed it yesterday – thanks for answering my question re: market growth vs total economic growth. I was serious, for the record. :)

#24 Good read on 02.03.18 at 3:48 pm

thank Ryan

any similar data for the TSX? of course Jan was in the red for our markets, I believe and early Feb has been super ugly

#25 Penny Henny on 02.03.18 at 3:54 pm

Today’s post ” As January goes” sounds very tranquil and peaceful.
That saying made me think of Groundhog Day, the movie.
Maybe there will be more drops in the Dow of 666 per day.
If so I’m ready. Powder is dry.

#26 Stan Brooks on 02.03.18 at 3:55 pm

It is challenging winter weather lately.

Somehow global warming does not apply to this place.

It is funny with the carbon taxes that now you have to pay more in order not to freeze to death, but in Canada we are used to it, paying premiums just to live here, not sure why (except that extensive brainwashing and marketing of not-so-premium brands sometimes works).

#27 I’m stupid on 02.03.18 at 3:55 pm

Lucky are the ones that can go on a sunny vacation. I’m trapped, wife is pregnant, Zika has prevented us from going to the Caribbean. Better safe than sorry. Enjoy the sun, I’ll be taking vitamin D dreaming of spring.

#28 For those about to flop... on 02.03.18 at 4:07 pm

#165 maya on 02.03.18 at 12:55 am
I love renting. I have always rented and saved tons. All of our registed accounts such as RESP, RRSP, TFSA are maxed. But things are looking different. I have been paying 950 dollrs per month with 2.5 increament every year for a two bedroom apartment since 2014 in surrey BC. Now the rent around this area for similar space is going for 1500. The landlord is not renewing our contract. I guess he is evecting us and raising rent to the on-going price. So, I am thinking, rather than paying 1500 pre month, may be I should I buy now. Not happy to buy in the peak market. I want to wait out until next two years. Want to see what the provencial gov. will be doing to curb the housing issue on Feb 8 Budget announcemnt.
If i buy a town house in today’s price, I wont be able to save as much and live a descent lifesytle working 28 hours a week and maxing all the registed portfolio.
Am in delimma.

////////////////////////

Hey Maya,I was flipping through my Pink Snow folder and when I passed this case I recalled your post and thought I should try to show you some stuff.

You talk about your rent going up a great amount but even if you bought a townhome like the one in trouble below ,your monthly payments would double to 3000 with 20% down before you even worry about all the other expenses.

Since I started my study into what is actually going on in Vancouver real estate in late 2016/early 2017 I would say that the detached market has taken one step backwards and Townhomes and condos ,two steps forward.

I think from memory that the guys below overpaid at pre-sale by a vast amount and are now sweating bullets.

I am obviously not advocating that you buy this place ,but part of what I do here is try to show people what is going on more tailored to their situation.

If you are going to do something that extreme then you might as well have some up-to-date information.

As guys on here would expect, I will follow this case and see what they decide to do.

We all have choices to make and it would appear that these guys made a poor one but are far from alone in that department…

M43BC

16 16261 23a Avenue, Surrey paid 897 ass662 TOWN HOUSE was asking 899 now 888

Jul 8:$948,000
Oct 8: $918,000
Change: – 30000.00 -3%

2016 tax assessment 662

2017 tax assessment 781

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/16261-23a-avenue/16

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBZWTdOOQ==

#29 JoeDirt on 02.03.18 at 4:12 pm

I think it is misleading to not include the flip side in your analysis – reporting the annual returns when the S&P is negative in the month of January. Per the website noted below; of the years left out of your table (’90, ’92, ’00, ’02-’05, ’08-’10, ’14-’16); 8 of 12 ended the year in the black (67% of the time). The 4 negative years were ’90; ’00; ’02 and ’08…half of which corresponded to market crashes (the dot com bubble and 2008), which surely cannot be predicted by your model.

I am not going to go back to 1945; but I would wager that there is not a statistically significant difference between positive and negative years depending on January performance. Meaning January market performance would not be enough of an indicator to determine whether you should invest in the S&P for any given year (i.e. if you wanted to change your portfolio weightings towards the S&P). If not for this, I do not see the point of your model…

ttps://ycharts.com/indicators/sandp_500_total_return_annual

#30 Ryan Lewenza on 02.03.18 at 4:13 pm

kommykim “Your “January Barometer Since 1990” is very misleading since Januarys from several years are missing.”

The “missing” years were years when the S&P 500 was down in January. The January Barometer focuses on years when the S&P 500 is positive in January and it’s implications for the rest of the year. So the study is not “misleading”, rather it just focuses on years when the S&P 500 is positive in January. – Ryan L

#31 Ryan Lewenza on 02.03.18 at 4:16 pm

Babou “Isn’t this whole January thing due to the fact that markets rise on average 73% of the time and less because there’s something magical about January? Seems the average performance of the market is awfully close to the January predictive accuracy of 84%…”

Yes I’m sure that contributes to it. I’m just providing some analysis on the markets. You don’t have to use it. – Ryan L

#32 Ryan Lewenza on 02.03.18 at 4:20 pm

NoName “One question Ryan, assuming that market will do ok this year with higher pe ratio, what is your take on emerging markets and small caps this year?”

We love the emerging markets right now and see more upside. Stronger economic growth, and lower US corporate tax rate should help small caps but we’re late cycle so we’re avoiding small caps right now. We’ll buy them back during the next bear market. – Ryan L

#33 Ryan Lewenza on 02.03.18 at 4:25 pm

Yanniel “In what sense Ryan did you guard or prepare against the pull back? Do you mean you moved the portfolio allocation as a way to hedge against the overdue pullbak? Thanks.”

We did nothing. Believing volatility and short-term weakness could come at any time and being able to consistently time this are two different things. And we know the latter is impossible to do consistently. Moreover, markets are down 3-4% from their peaks. This is nothing considering the incredible gains over the last few years. – Ryan L

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.03.18 at 4:29 pm

Interesting stats Ryan.

I cant wait to see how this year affects my “balanced and divesified portfolio”

:)

#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.03.18 at 4:32 pm

@321 sleeping dragon

Are you related to Flaming Dragon?

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DdROwEc4VyJA&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwi9gqHs2IrZAhVC7GMKHTZgCYwQtwIIGTAB&usg=AOvVaw37FUj4GGSyN10AJ5htW4RP

#36 Penny Henny on 02.03.18 at 4:51 pm

#22 Mark on 02.03.18 at 3:39 pm
“US bonds are being dumped hand over fist and the 10 year yield curve is going parabolic, and will pass 3% next week. No one wants this junk anymore, and the USD is at a 3.5 year low. It’s going a whole lot lower too.”

Those are my thoughts as well.

///////////////////

Ha, Mark agreed with you Ian.
I would rethink your prediction to see where it may be wrong. :)

#37 Andrew Woburn on 02.03.18 at 5:02 pm

What inequality looks like at ground level.

“According to the World Bank, 769 million people lived on less than $1.90 a day in 2013; they are the world’s very poorest.

OF THESE 3.2 million LIVE IN THE UNITED STATES and

3.3 million in other high-income countries (most in Italy, Japan and Spain).

As striking as these numbers are, they miss a very important fact. There are necessities of life in rich, cold, urban and individualistic countries that are less needed in poor countries. The World Bank adjusts its poverty estimates for differences in prices across countries, but it ignores differences in needs.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/24/opinion/poverty-united-states.html

#38 InvestorsFriend on 02.03.18 at 5:08 pm

You’re Welcome

#23 El Joko on 02.03.18 at 3:43 pm
#3 InvestorsFriend

Hey, in case you missed it yesterday – thanks for answering my question re: market growth vs total economic growth. I was serious, for the record. :)

*************************************
I did see that. You’re welcome and thank you. It’s nice when people appreciate my posts.

#39 LivinLarge on 02.03.18 at 5:31 pm

“It’s nice when people appreciate my posts.”, awwww shucks Andy, just a good ol’ boy.

Maybe it would appear slightly more often if you didn’t freakin’ preach and sermonize like ol’ Rex Humbard or make up crazy, never happen in a million year scenarios to push an already bad hand that would make an “Ancient Alien Theorist” blush.

#40 Penny Henny on 02.03.18 at 5:37 pm

“as January goes, so goes the rest of the year”-Ryan

Hey Ryan you quote implies that if January is a down month then the rest of the year will be down also.
Is this true and to what degree of accuracy?

#41 millmech on 02.03.18 at 5:42 pm

#16 Cloudy
I am looking at Vernon as a retirement move, along with three other communities, 4002 Alexis Park Dr is a 3bdrm, 2bth house listed for $249,000, has potential for a basement suite. 6875 Longacre DR is another nice place with a suite for extra income that has caught my eye, but not pulling the trigger yet.Just keep watching the prices that will keep on declining, I believe another 30% is realistic. Get to know a good realtor up there and watch the market, I have family up there who have ears open and they are also saying to wait. You need to have cash in hand for a bully offer no conditions and you will do well, good luck!
I find the Armstrong/Enderby area the houses have too big of a footprint, I am looking for smaller house with a smaller yard. I would like to be in city limits

I had to go to Chilliwack this morning and hit up a couple of open house while in the area while waiting. The realtor at the one house was hoping for an offer as the last four offers had fallen through due to financing issues brought on by the new B20 changes. Apparently the client was more open to price negotiations as they want this house sold since they have already bought another house.
At the second open house the realtor told me that she was advising everyone to make sure they have financing in place before submitting offers because she too was having more of her clients deals getting denied by the B20 rules.

#42 Chico on 02.03.18 at 5:51 pm

#1 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.03.18 at 1:19 pm

Canada is a terrible place to live. A frozen hellscape half the year. It’s a waste of life and life is so short.

———————————————–

It’s these sort of highly objective, well thought out comments that continue to inspire! You sir are a man of deep thought and tremendous substance. Never stop trying to make the world a better place, don’t let people tell you it can’t be done, it can! Soldier on, in spite of the critics, the scoffers, the cynics and the clinically depressed! No mountain’s too big, no ocean’s is too wide. You, are a giant among men! I salute you.

#43 Stan Brooks on 02.03.18 at 6:00 pm

#42 Chico on 02.03.18 at 5:51 pm
#1 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.03.18 at 1:19 pm

Canada is a terrible place to live. A frozen hellscape half the year. It’s a waste of life and life is so short.

———————————————–

It’s these sort of highly objective, well thought out comments that continue to inspire! You sir are a man of deep thought and tremendous substance. Never stop trying to make the world a better place, don’t let people tell you it can’t be done, it can! Soldier on, in spite of the critics, the scoffers, the cynics and the clinically depressed! No mountain’s too big, no ocean’s is too wide. You, are a giant among men! I salute you.

——————————–

The lack of critical thinking and external perspective in this place is simply astonishing.

Which part of the SCM statement are you objecting?
It seems pretty accurate to me, let’s focus on facts, not emotions.

What are you exactly doing today at – 15, sunbathing or camping?

So let’s lose these old, patriotic and moral postures and focus on the new progressive post-national agenda, as defined by our great leaders – equality, climate change and higher taxes.

#44 Al on 02.03.18 at 6:15 pm

Interesting post, thanks. What are the returns for Feb-Dec when the January barometer is negative?

#45 Stan Brooks on 02.03.18 at 6:17 pm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome

Stockholm syndrome is a condition that causes hostages to develop a psychological alliance with their captors as a survival strategy during captivity.[1] These feelings, resulting from a bond formed between captor and captives during intimate time spent together, are generally considered irrational in light of the danger or risk endured by the victims. Generally speaking, Stockholm syndrome consists of “strong emotional ties that develop between two persons where one person intermittently harasses, beats, threatens, abuses, or intimidates the other.”[2] The FBI’s Hostage Barricade Database System shows that roughly eight percent of victims show evidence of Stockholm syndrome.[3]

Nils Bejerot, a Swedish criminologist and psychiatrist coined the term after Stockholm police asked him for assistance with analyzing the victims’ reactions to the 1973 bank robbery and their status as hostages. As the idea of brainwashing was not a new concept, Bejerot, speaking on “a news cast after the captives’ release” instinctively reduced the hostages’ reactions to a result of being brainwashed by their captors.[4] He called it Norrmalmstorgssyndromet, meaning “The Norrmalmstorg Syndrome”; it later became known outside of Sweden as the Stockholm syndrome.[5] It was originally defined by psychiatrist Frank Ochberg to aid the management of hostage situations.[6

————————–

You harass (tax, understated inflation), enslave (debt) them and then they defend you as you share common ‘values’.

Sure.

#46 Lost...but not leased on 02.03.18 at 6:20 pm

#21 sleepingdragon

You know that pro sports are FIXED right..seriously.
Lots of articles about this.

Pro Sports are no different than pro-wrestling..legally defined as “Entertainment”. This gives them the right to predetermine outcomes.

This does not imply the teams and players are involved per se…but how many times have we seen a few bad calls by referees change a game.

Last years SuperBowl game was a joke..it reeked of major fixing. The Patriots are not that good…their plays are basically slants, odd screens and buttonhooks. Duhhhhh.

Wonder if the NFL realizes people are sick of Patriots…switch to WWF

#47 Ryan Lewenza on 02.03.18 at 6:21 pm

Penny Henny “Hey Ryan you quote implies that if January is a down month then the rest of the year will be down also. Is this true and to what degree of accuracy?”

Yes if January is down there is a lower probability of a positive Feb-Dec return and the average return is much lower than if positive at 15%. Basically, the January Barometer has a weaker track record if negative in January than if positive. – Ryan L

#48 dakkie on 02.03.18 at 6:22 pm

The Canadian Market Goes Negative On The Year

http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-canadian-market-goes-negative-on-the-year/

#49 Stan Brooks on 02.03.18 at 6:31 pm

#48 dakkie on 02.03.18 at 6:22 pm
The Canadian Market Goes Negative On The Year

http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-canadian-market-goes-negative-on-the-year/

————————-

Pretty accurate statements on where we stand, i.e. economy sucks and will suck, not much hope there.

I guess this is what you get with extreme debt, repressive taxation and progressive SJW agendas.

time for Poloz to reduce rates.

#50 Lost...but not leased on 02.03.18 at 6:49 pm

#20 blacksheep..

While I hear you to some degree, I highly doubt Flops efforts are ruining peoples lives.

The RE market is all over the place. Lots of sites provide much more data.ie “myrealtycheck” Price reductions can be interpreted in numerous ways…so what?? The only given is the peak is over as majority of peoples original listing prices are not attracting buyers. The sellers could be downsizing, estate,..divorce…etc…facts of life. The given market is the judge of selling price.

As I have noted, I sold my late fathers home on Oct…I lucked out…prices doubled in 2 years..but have plateaud…all the indications are they peaked..thus only downside. Breathe a sigh of relief and move on.

My personal concern is the Bitcoin of RE..strata.
Gov’ts have literally shoehorned/funnelled buyers into this option, which is on par with socialist living. The longer this market does not see a correction, the worse the collapse.

Truth…even in the form of data…can suck…may be painful to view but can’t be accused of being meanspirited, agenda driven etc.

#51 A Yank in BC on 02.03.18 at 6:59 pm

Okay Ryan.. so you’ve made a good case for the January Barometer being reliable and all. I’m sold. But let’s all please root for the Eagles tomorrow anyway. A little insurance never hurts.

#52 Chico on 02.03.18 at 7:01 pm

#43 Stan Brooks on 02.03.18 at 6:00 pm

Which part of the SCM statement are you objecting?
It seems pretty accurate to me, let’s focus on facts, not emotions.

What are you exactly doing today at – 15, sunbathing or camping?

——————————————

You are right, my life is defined by the narrow boundaries of sunbathing or camping, those are my only options for happiness and contentment when it’s cold outside.

#53 tccontrarian on 02.03.18 at 7:03 pm

“…let me temper your excitement as this market theory is by no means fool proof.” R.L.
———————————————————-

LOL – I think you mean ‘full proof’!

But also consider this: anything that is widely known by market participants, is not likely to have useful predictive value.
This ‘January Barometer’ phonomenon, since it’s been around since 1972, is not likely to be of any value now, almost 5 decades later.
But good to put out there so blog-dogs can see how it works out this year.

Happy Stock Market Crash, Everyone! – TCC

#54 Cloudy on 02.03.18 at 7:07 pm

#41 millmech on 02.03.18 at 5:42 pm

Thanks a lot for getting back to me. I’m going to keep my eyes open and maybe track some interesting places to see days on market and if there’s any relisting at lower prices.

I’m interested in the opposite as you – the larger the property the better. Young family but I consider myself an old man: I like tinkering around and keeping a yard up etc. I don’t have the wife completely sold on moving, and its employment dependent but I really like the area. She has family there. A little more affordable there than here but you have way more options if you’re willing to do a bit of a commute. I like snow, but the summers might make me melt.

Have to ask about the name, are you a millwright or HD mechanic or something of the sort?

#55 sleepingdragon on 02.03.18 at 7:12 pm

@crowdedelevatorfartz

There are powerful economic forces at work here. If you can stand over it with a gun you don’t own it. Buy local.

#56 akashic record on 02.03.18 at 7:14 pm

Ryan, what do you think would be the financial impact of a looming US civil war?

#57 Expat on 02.03.18 at 7:19 pm

@ #15 nobody special: B.C. is so expensive now it would be cheaper to spend your retirement renting a house on a golf course in California or Hawaii every year than moving to the wet coast.

And good luck finding a doctor. We were on a three year waiting list!

#58 akashic record on 02.03.18 at 7:20 pm

#42 Chico on 02.03.18 at 5:51 pm

#1 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.03.18 at 1:19 pm

Canada is a terrible place to live. A frozen hellscape half the year. It’s a waste of life and life is so short.

———————————————–

It’s these sort of highly objective, well thought out comments that continue to inspire! You sir are a man of deep thought and tremendous substance. Never stop trying to make the world a better place, don’t let people tell you it can’t be done, it can! Soldier on, in spite of the critics, the scoffers, the cynics and the clinically depressed! No mountain’s too big, no ocean’s is too wide. You, are a giant among men! I salute you.

===

Nice words Chico, though all sounds familiar.

Any thought of your own about the frozen hellscape half the year?

#59 Bottoms_Up on 02.03.18 at 7:27 pm

Xennials….those born between 1977-1983.

https://www.sammichespsychmeds.com/micro-generation-born-between-1977-1983-are-given-new-name/

#60 Newcomer on 02.03.18 at 7:40 pm

#57 Expat on 02.03.18 at 7:19 pm

And good luck finding a doctor. We were on a three year waiting list!
———-

Where do you live? I hear the north is particularly difficult.

Just this morning I was talking to a friend who had his doctor retire here in Vancouver. He looked at the list at http://www.cpsbc.ca and he found two in walking distance of his place. One had a three-month waiting list, it’s true, but the other one took him right away. Would driving into a nearby city be an option for you? If so, it might be worth checking out.

#61 Loonie Doctor on 02.03.18 at 7:55 pm

Just went out for dinner with my family to celebrate a birthday. It was a mid range family restaurant. Everything on the menu was up by almost exactly 20% and dessert was no longer included on the kiddie menu. No problem for me. I can afford it, don’t mind paying a bit more on the rare occasion that we eat out, and none of us really needs dessert. However, I worry that the people getting raises to bring them up to a “living wage”, which is a laudable goal, may not find that the new money goes a far as they thought it would if it simply raises the cost of things. It is really unfortunate if that is what happens broadly. Income tax paid will go up, of course. A brilliant political maneuver really.

#62 Millmech on 02.03.18 at 7:57 pm

#54 Cloudy
Millwright&HD Mechanic

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.03.18 at 8:00 pm

@#55 sleepingdragon
“If you can stand over it with a gun you don’t own it.”
+++++++

Nah.
Whoever holds the map.
Rules.

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DSwkCXz_Kohs&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjB1uG5h4vZAhVW0GMKHdcnBtgQtwIIGTAB&usg=AOvVaw0BEkWXnff18EMvvhkKIAz4

#64 Chico on 02.03.18 at 8:04 pm

#58 akashic record on 02.03.18 at 7:20 pm

Any thought of your own about the frozen hellscape half the year?

————————————————–

I’d be happy to answer your question if you can answer mine first. How does a person make the jump from:

“I’ll admit it, I have the winter blues,” by Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

to…

“frozen hellscape?”

I’m trying to find the logical thought progression. Please show me.

#65 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 02.03.18 at 8:13 pm

The Super Bowl is the most valuable sports event brand in the world and will generate at least $620 million in revenue….. nice to know

#66 Stone on 02.03.18 at 8:28 pm

#56 akashic record on 02.03.18 at 7:14 pm
Ryan, what do you think would be the financial impact of a looming US civil war?

————

What??? Where the hell did that come from?

Should I start hoarding canned beans and spam? Did I miss the memo? Did you?

#67 Smoking Man on 02.03.18 at 8:37 pm

#56 akashic record on 02.03.18 at 7:14 pm
Ryan, what do you think would be the financial impact of a looming US civil war?
…..

Civil war. Yeah, right, millenials with sticks and stones vs police, military. And deplorables with automatic weapons.

#68 SW on 02.03.18 at 8:52 pm

#141 jane24 on 02.02.18 at 10:21 pm
#183 Ace Goodheart on 02.03.18 at 9:08 am
Agree with you both.

Not a scientific survey or anything but the Toronto Star appears to have stopped blatantly pumping real estate.
Not only is the Homes section skimpy, but in the Saturday Star* there is a recurring feature “What they got” which usually details a couple of recent sales. Up to about December 2017 everything featured appeared to be expensive single family houses, sold way above asking.

Now there is only one lonely “Condos: What they got”, featuring two condos, both sold under asking price.
I suppose the advertising has dropped off…a cliff.

* I don’t read it! My mother buys it for the TV guide, honest! There is a great feature about bespoke dog houses!

#69 Mike in Toronto on 02.03.18 at 9:14 pm

#1 Screwed Canadian Millenial

Damn, I agree with SCM. I have to re-evaluate my logic, clearly I’m wrong.

#70 InvestorsFriend on 02.03.18 at 9:28 pm

Restaurant Prices are Up? What to Do?

#61 Loonie Doctor on 02.03.18 at 7:55 pm reported:

Just went out for dinner with my family to celebrate a birthday. It was a mid range family restaurant. Everything on the menu was up by almost exactly 20% and dessert was no longer included on the kiddie menu.

************************************
That would bode well for the KEG and Boston Pizza royalty Income Fund units and probably other restaurant royalty units.

The ones that are skimming a fixed percent franchise fee off the food bill and distributing that to unit holders. Even in the face of higher interest rates these should do well. Unless rates really soar Or unless business falls off with the increases but is that likely to happen? Is the same-store revenue of these places going to fall given the price increases?

Disclosure: I own Boston Pizza units.

#71 Oakville Rocks! on 02.03.18 at 9:29 pm

@#43 Stan Brooks

The lack of critical thinking and external perspective in this place is simply astonishing.

===============================

I know what you mean Stan. Can you imagine someone actually once wrote….

“There is nothing to do in GTA in your leisure time, period.” in the comments.

And this was based on observations of people walking in circles in a mall in the suburbs. A mall laid out like a race track even.

How obtuse and clueless do you have to be to make such a statement?

Anyway, I spent the day walking my dog in this glorious weather (he wears a coat and boots when it gets this cold) and really enjoyed the lightly falling snow on our last walk.

I do admit that walking into the wind made we wish we were indoors but then I remembered my neighbour who recently had to put her dog down and thought she would likely give anything to have another 20 minutes with him on a walk in the worst weather imaginable.

Gratitude such a smart emotion, makes lots of things that many complain about better.

I will take my four seasons and my long summer nights for a few months of cold weather. Besides when the “frozen hellscape” arrives many in these parts grab their skates and walk to the frozen pond or strap on a pair of skis and explore the ravine trail in a new way.

To each his own.

I do admire your choice of leisure activity though. You can spend your time looking down you nose at others wherever you are, indoors or out.

#72 SoggyShorts on 02.03.18 at 9:30 pm

#12 Dissident on 02.03.18 at 2:24 pm
I’m just glad I didn’t go stock shopping right after the holidays. Something told me to “wait and see how this pans out”. I know Jan and Feb are sometimes tepid.
**********
I can understand being happy to miss out on a dip, but wouldn’t you still be up if you had bought in at the beginning of the year?
Historically a “wait and see” approach costs money…

#73 NoName on 02.03.18 at 9:33 pm

#67 Smoking Man on 02.03.18 at 8:37 pm
#56 akashic record on 02.03.18 at 7:14 pm
Ryan, what do you think would be the financial impact of a looming US civil war?
…..
Civil war. Yeah, right, millenials with sticks and stones vs police, military. And deplorables with automatic weapons.

—-
Lets hope that ever wont come to that, i’m no expert on civil war, but what I have observed thru my life is that you are overlooking demographics. Big mistake to do that, demographics are one of the few if not main reason that s lost to c.

Why do you think its quiet and stable society is in more mature (demographic vise) countries. Another thing people with no jobs are more likely to grab a stick and beat stickles person. Funny thng how its easy to brain wash someone with no job (no pun intended) just think of romanias and ban on abortions in 60s, they got lucky it was short and somewhat worked out for them.

More recent example of high youth unemployment country that went south “on its own” ejeept (ok they were few nudges here and tere) and we see around what how are thing around where youth doesn’t work.

Having to work with boomer kommies over last little while and some of my boomers relatives are becoming bit nostalgic for kommi. it funny when they say it was better before, but when I ask them what they left when was better, and what they are doing here they go bit in to cognitive dissonance overlod mode. Funy how all millennials and boomer think alike. But I know you already know that.

#74 Lost...but not leased on 02.03.18 at 9:38 pm

USA…. Civil War ???

If you knew the sophistication of the weaponry available to the police, let alone the military (posse’ comitatus also ignored ), it would blow your mind.

An example is a device mounted on a vehicle that emits microwave frequencies that can incapacitate a crowd.

Review Ruby Ridge and Randy Weaver….or Waco …

#75 akashic record on 02.03.18 at 9:42 pm

#66 Stone on 02.03.18 at 8:28 pm

#56 akashic record on 02.03.18 at 7:14 pm
Ryan, what do you think would be the financial impact of a looming US civil war?

————

What??? Where the hell did that come from?

Should I start hoarding canned beans and spam? Did I miss the memo? Did you?

====

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbnJMKVG8iE

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/02/03/phil-mudd-fbi-ticked-trump-memo-tsr-sot.cnn

http://thehill.com/homenews/media/346171-former-mueller-deputy-on-trump-government-is-going-to-kill-this-guy

#76 Lost...but not leased on 02.03.18 at 9:43 pm

Re MD’s

Part of the problem is walk in clinics, and to some degree MD’s practices.

Visits are capped …after a certain number the MD’s get paid less per visit. A clinic in Richmond shut down recently over this.

#77 Capt. Obvious on 02.03.18 at 9:46 pm

Humans have a great ability to look for patterns and interpret them.

#78 Tony on 02.03.18 at 9:47 pm

The S&P 500 Will Hit 2,863 in 2018 And Then CRASH!: BOA. Will the Fed Save the Market?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2rjYZzSwf4&t=489s

See January 26th 2018

#79 conan on 02.03.18 at 9:47 pm

#67 Smoking Man on 02.03.18 at 8:37 pm

More like Sanctuary vs non Sanctuary, Pro Trump vs No Trump.

All it takes is one stupid General listening to one clueless POTUS.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dPn9M7TLlI

#80 akashic record on 02.03.18 at 9:50 pm

#64 Chico on 02.03.18 at 8:04 pm

#58 akashic record on 02.03.18 at 7:20 pm

Any thought of your own about the frozen hellscape half the year?

————————————————–

I’d be happy to answer your question if you can answer mine first. How does a person make the jump from:

“I’ll admit it, I have the winter blues,” by Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

to…

“frozen hellscape?”

I’m trying to find the logical thought progression. Please show me.

====

Have you ever seen this movie?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXGm9Vlfx4w

#81 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 02.03.18 at 9:53 pm

Has anyone taken Garth’s advice from the article 2017/12/page/3/, particularly #10 – Move to Nunavut…?

Nope. I’m reading people vacationing to Monterey, warmer climates for vacation, having the winter blues with outside air temperature in Canada being anywhere between -15 and -30 celsius, hibernating indoors.

In remote Canada, north of 60 we’ve been experiencing consistent ambient air temperatures in the -25 to -35 range for months now. While the markets dipped this week previously, we’ve been crashing into the -50 to -55 range. We northerners are still outdoors then too. Not in your urban, faux-fur northface bubble jackets, but the real stuff. Heck, I torn down and rebuilt the snowmobile motor today, all the while keeping an eye out for my 3-year-old skating around playing pick-up hockey with some neighborhood kids. Not a sign of frost-bite nor gangrenous limbs on any of us.

I don’t think the 6% lower tax rate would be enough incentive for the most manly of posters here.

#82 Lost...but not leased on 02.03.18 at 9:53 pm

Brother -in -law is a HD mechanic(over 30 years) in Alberta.

Came out for a visit…Things are very slow out there. His company(into frakking and well -servicing) has cut wages and benefits. Same all over Alberta.

On top of that you have an NEW NDP Gov’t never seen before in Alberta.

Added insult to injury is apparently companies like SunCor will phase in DRIVERLESS VEHICLES on their sites in five years..figure 400 jobs will be lost.

In fact, many industries that employ drivers are sounding the alarm.

Stay Tuned !

#83 Rexx Rock on 02.03.18 at 9:54 pm

1#Screwed millenial.
I know how you feel,Canada sucks and way to expensive to live.I am in Da Nang Vietnam and is a little cool 24 C and sunny.Going to beach later.A dollar a beer in the grocery store.Meals for under $6.You can live here under $900 easy.In Puerto Vallarta I rented a studio and my monthly expenses were under $850 a month!Victoria B.C. is such a rip off,all I do is save for retirement so I can get the hell out of there.Asia and Mexico is your best bet,but are country is working strong to devalue our currency so you won’t have that luxury soon.

#84 Danny on 02.03.18 at 10:21 pm

Good to look at normal trends. Very good historical perspective.

But nothing is normal any more with the Pathetic God Father Trump….with all his hush money and under the table…cash money arrangements.

Investing like real estate has a certain degree of emotion….and deep down especially with North Korea and a senior Trump with his memory loss added to his thug and offensive talk …..does not help….anyones sense of security.

So not sure if using normal trends will cut it this year?

Trump is like those unpredictable storms …..and because he hates and debased Mexicans….i believe he will kill NAFTA when he is desperate to show that he has the upper hand and distract from any investigation of his family cash loans from the Russian oligarchy.

Angry bullies always want to look like they won the fight that they started in the first place.

Sorry NAFTA…..without Mexico…..you will be another victim of Trump’s vindictive nature.

#85 Doug in London on 02.03.18 at 10:21 pm

Look at the bright side, some stocks and ETFs are on sale now, Boxing Day sales are 5 weeks late. Seeing these bargains, like ENB at a 52 week low of slightly over $43 do an awesome job of fighting off those winter blues.

#86 ANON on 02.03.18 at 10:28 pm

If anyone has any clues (*) where they lost them billions, I’m more than willing to leave the popcorn bucket aside and join the search party for a very small percentage-based fee of the treasure.

* Serious clues only, “not it was here Thursday, but Friday it was gone, you figure it out”. I call BS on those.

#87 NoName on 02.03.18 at 10:31 pm

#82 Lost…but not leased on 02.03.18 at 9:53 pm
Brother -in -law is a HD mechanic(over 30 years) in Alberta.
Came out for a visit…Things are very slow out there. His company(into frakking and well -servicing) has cut wages and benefits. Same all over Alberta.
On top of that you have an NEW NDP Gov’t never seen before in Alberta.
Added insult to injury is apparently companies like SunCor will phase in DRIVERLESS VEHICLES on their sites in five years..figure 400 jobs will be lost.
In fact, many industries that employ drivers are sounding the alarm.
Stay Tuned !

uber study on that topic

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/02/uber-says-its-self-driving-trucks-will-be-good-for-truckers/551879/

#88 Tony on 02.03.18 at 10:32 pm

Some guy at the BOA just happened to predict and pick the exact day the S&P 500 index peaked on January 26th 2018. I guess we’ll find out what crash means this Monday if he also got the crash part right.

At the 28 second mark of the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2rjYZzSwf4&t=489s

#89 young & foolish on 02.03.18 at 10:34 pm

Sovereign debts always seem to go up no matter who’s in power …. well then, maybe debts don’t really matter after all?
Is it that we don’t really understand how modern economies really work?

#90 SWL1976 on 02.03.18 at 10:36 pm

#82 Lost…but not leased

Brother -in -law is a HD mechanic(over 30 years) in Alberta.

Came out for a visit…Things are very slow out there. His company(into frakking and well -servicing) has cut wages and benefits. Same all over Alberta.

On top of that you have an NEW NDP Gov’t never seen before in Alberta.

Added insult to injury is apparently companies like SunCor will phase in DRIVERLESS VEHICLES on their sites in five years..figure 400 jobs will be lost.

In fact, many industries that employ drivers are sounding the alarm.

Stay Tuned !

————–

A business acquaintance who originally set me up with work in Alberta called me last week and was fishing around for what sort of work was going on out here on Vancouver Island. This guy has spent the last 15 years in Alberta and has always had some sort of construction project management gig. Sounds like the gig is finally up, and that to me signals that the big final projects that were on the books are coming to a close. I got out a few years ago as I understood which way the wind was blowing.

Things have been surprisingly busy out here on the Island and there seems to be more jobs than skilled people who want to work in our circle.

I still think back to the days of when I tried to convince my millennial coworker not to buy a crappy house in a sketchy area of Edmonton circa summer 2015 – Just before oil tanked. Many people I know in Alberta had 2 or 3 ‘investment’ properties who are going to be in for a long slow grind

#91 common sense on 02.03.18 at 10:41 pm

#70 Investors Friend

Boston Pizza is terrible and to be associated with, admitting you own a few of them takes guts.

Bland food, over priced, fair portions, poor value, thank god your in Canada. You would never survive in the USA.

Are you PROUD of the product you serve?

Horrible.

When this debt binge blows, good luck.

#92 Blacksheep on 02.03.18 at 10:50 pm

Lost # 50,

“While I hear you to some degree, I highly doubt Flops efforts are ruining peoples lives.”
————————————-
Never claimed he was running anything.

Mearly pointed out that there is a person or a family on the other end of all those pink snow reports.

People are forced to make finacial decsions (sell houses) they dont want to cause sometimes life goes side ways on you, nobodys fault.

Flop cannot discrimnate between the innocent sellers and the guilty flippers, so grouping everyone together may not be the best plan, specialty since his hile mantra is: “im just trying to help others”.

Whatever.

I assume he will let his conscience be his guide, now that someone has pointed out he may actually be make life shittier for certain inocent parties in his agenda to bring RE values down, for obvious personal reasons.

#93 Blacksheep on 02.03.18 at 11:07 pm

Young # 89,

“Is it that we don’t really understand how modern economies really work?”
—————————
Yes…Google MMT.

I watched proff. Steffine Kelton
on youtube, helped lots.

#94 MF on 02.03.18 at 11:38 pm

#1 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.03.18 at 1:19 pm

“I have winter blues too. Canada is a terrible place to live. A frozen hellscape half the year. It’s a waste of life and life is so short.”

-Canada gives all the opportunity in the world. If someone cannot make it, it is their fault. I have worked with recent immigrants my entire life. Watched them work hard, support families, and watched their children become successful.

There is a long line of people who are fighting for the opportunity to be Canadian.

Please leave as soon as you can so these people can take your place.

(and i’m a millennial btw)

MF

#95 Fake News Again on 02.03.18 at 11:40 pm

In other news…….The SUPERBOWL will by the COLDEST EVER RECORDED.

Japan the coldest in 45 years.

But you Global Warming tards keep on pushing your carbon tax. Need to keep Climate Barbie employed and flying around on Air Force Canada……

#96 NoName on 02.04.18 at 12:16 am

#92 Blacksheep on 02.03.18 at 10:50 pm
Lost # 50,
“While I hear you to some degree, I highly doubt Flops efforts are ruining peoples lives.”
————————————-
Never claimed he was running anything.
Mearly pointed out that there is a person or a family on the other end of all those pink snow reports.
People are forced to make finacial decsions (sell houses) they dont want to cause sometimes life goes side ways on you, nobodys fault.
Flop cannot discrimnate between the innocent sellers and the guilty flippers, so grouping everyone together may not be the best plan, specialty since his hile mantra is: “im just trying to help others”.
Whatever.
I assume he will let his conscience be his guide, now that someone has pointed out he may actually be make life shittier for certain inocent parties in his agenda to bring RE values down, for obvious personal reasons.

—-

Funny thing you say all this, I assume he will let his conscience be his guide, now that someone has pointed out he may actually be make life shittier for certain inocent parties in his agenda to bring RE values down, for obvious personal reasons. and you point all you “anger” at flop.

we all know that I am not brightes bulb in a comment section, but man you give yourself a way to much credit, especially after reading your posts, look how genius I am, next door guy split lot and selling it close to mill, therefore my house doubled but only if I split lot in two and this and that.

its funny more like sad how you carefully inserted sound bite innocent families so you can distract from real problem, and portray flop as bad guy. Keep them those force feeding sounbites coming to comment section, because they are more telling of you than flop.

let me aks you question is your agenda to keep prices up, or you are all rightest one and you innocent with no agenda?

whats your take on censorship, by the way?

#97 Cloudy on 02.04.18 at 12:19 am

#62 Millmech on 02.03.18 at 7:57 pm

Two very smart career choices. When I was 15-18 I worked at a mill doing mostly cleanup on weekends but the odd shift on the chain in summer break. The millwright would use me as his extra hands when needed and recommended I get both welding and millwright tickets. In hindsight I wish I had done that. Instead went to university “because they say to” took business/accounting and realized 99% of my peers were phony so I became a faller. I loved the job but when it came time to start a family I needed a change for their sake. I was looking to find work that I would enjoy, wasn’t destined for camp shifts and wouldn’t end with me dying under a cedar snag. Planned on going back to school for HD mechanic’s ticket but went another direction and am now a much maligned city employee LOL.

#82 Lost…but not leased on 02.03.18 at 9:53 pm
A friend of mine (in Vernon) is an HD mechanic in Alberta and has had perks cut back (no more paid flights, and a few other frills) but hasn’t mentioned pay cuts. I know you can’t find work on a moments notice anymore out there that’s for sure.

#90 SWL1976 on 02.03.18 at 10:36 pm

I agree its busy out here, but its a one two trick pony between construction and government work. One probably won’t stay this busy forever and the other requires a frontal lobotomy. BIL operates machinery for construction in Calgary and its much busy and pays much better there.

#98 Smoking Man on 02.04.18 at 1:00 am

#1 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.03.18 at 1:19 pm
I have winter blues too. Canada is a terrible place to live. A frozen hellscape half the year. It’s a waste of life and life is so short. I don’t blame Smokey for going to beautiful, blue, liberal, coastal elite, Democratic utopia of southern California. Hell, Mr. Canada, Wayne Gretzky moved there in 88 and hasn’t looked back. Hopefully this is my last year here. Don’t worry boomers, I’ll still be posting.
….

Kid I’m am an old washed up drunk. Still got a bit of game left. Should have move a long time ago. Elderly parents that I took care of held me back.

Do it. You don’t even realize you. Will evalove into a good capitalist with all your passion and energy. . But like any kid you wana be a good sport and save the world. Justice for all

Then one day you realize the world don’t want to be saved and they hate you for trying. Been there done that.

Get out while your young. Canada is doomed. T2 will do some much damage in the next 2 years that won’t be recoverable. Libralism will go extinct in the next go around but it will be to late.

Run away as fast as you can.

#99 Smoking Man on 02.04.18 at 1:14 am

The thing that pissed me off about this pathetic blog. Every time I try and pump my book. Boom deleted.

I’m an extrodenary visionary. I see shit years before other people do. By bashing of teachers and cultural Marxism from 5 years ago before anyone knew what was going on.

The Shlong Zumanga mono log is an epic historical prediction that is coming true before your eyes.

Garth let’s have a vote. No links to the book that makes you mental for reasons I don’t know.

Can I copy and paste from my brilliant work of art the Zumanga monolog. Dogs should have a heads up on what’s going down.

Green light me and I start calling the markets on here again.?

#100 Karlhungus on 02.04.18 at 1:37 am

Well you just had post about the US market advancing 77% of the time so I’m not sure why january would be special. You could say the same thing about any month. Almost every time July (pick random month) is positive, the year ends positive.

#101 Where's The Money Guido? on 02.04.18 at 2:42 am

B.C. Liberals select Andrew Wilkinson as new leader….
Can you believe it, the BC Lieberals picked a Guido Campbell clone for their leader. The guy looks surprisingly like the former (insert perjorative here), who sold off BC to all his insider buddies.
BC NDP will just have to put his mug beside Guido’s and retrace all the thieving he did while in office and they’ll be in office for 2 terms for sure, they won’t have to drag out Crusty’s failures until the time that Wilkinson is shown the door.
Man I hate that guy’s face, it just congers up so much hatred of what Scampbell did to the citizens of BC.

#102 Stan Brooks on 02.04.18 at 2:43 am

#52 Chico on 02.03.18 at 7:01 pm

You are right, my life is defined by the narrow boundaries of sunbathing or camping, those are my only options for happiness and contentment when it’s cold outside.

My apologies,

I had to include cutting the grass and browsing the internet in the smelly, moldy basement.

——————

#71 Oakville Rocks! on 02.03.18 at 9:29 pm

—-

I don’t object having 4 (normal) seasons.
But where exactly of you have that in Canada?
5-6 months of severe winter, 4 of humid summer around south Ontario, with 1 week of spring and 1.5 month of autumn?

Or the beautiful sunless BC?
There is a study that exposure to sunlight is directly linked to the degree of happiness.

You have a dog, admirable responsibility, how about kids?
BTW, almost everyone I know had their dog/cat die of cancer in Ontario.
Not of old age as almost everywhere else.
Try organic food if you care about it.

About the malls I was covering the stereotype and my personal observations: that stuck in the rat race you lose perspective.

People adjust to it but not having kids and working to death, this is why I guess we needs immigrants.

#103 westcdn on 02.04.18 at 3:02 am

Last week, Mr Market took me to the woodshed and my hinny hurts. I don’t know what value my portfolio will be Dec 31, 2018 but I am expecting to be down somewhat. I have been in a general pattern of a poor year followed by 2 good years for the recent decades. If the pattern holds, I am in for a poor year.

I can’t explain it other than to say what goes up will come down. Fortunately my upswings outweigh my down swings. The years 2008, 2009 and 2010 are particularly memorable to me. Down 35% (I thought my life was over but my wife only divorced me), then up 60% and then up 40%. In 2011, true to form, I was down 14%.

After 2011, I began rebalance my portfolio to income from capital gains. I consider my portfolio to be unusual as it is nearly 80% TSX listed stocks and 20% Reits and RR preferreds. I do not hold any ETF’s or blue chip stocks currently. 20 stocks make up the core and cover all market indices except financials. All but 1 are dividend paying for an average yield of 7% of acquisition cost. The remaining 60 odd stocks are minor speculative positions. I use Quicken Home and Business software to monitor and analyze my portfolio. Although my equity holdings are TSX listed, most of them have major US bases and really are American companies. Hopefully any NAFTA losses will be more than offset by Trump economics.

The gaping hole I see in my portfolio is Emerging Market exposure. I will need an ETF to address that hole. So guess what? I trip across VWO (nyse). It seems to be everything I want in an ETF. It is big and liquid, US$ denominated, 0.15% MER, 2.2% dividend and Asian focussed. However, VWO has had a recent run-up and looks to be overbought to me plus my potential comeuppance for being a DIY investor.

But hey, I keep my tastes simple. I only want the best. (sarc)

#104 Gravy Train on 02.04.18 at 6:21 am

“… The cold weather, trudging around in the wet snow, the lack of sunlight and short days all contribute to occasional bouts of depression and us just trying to get through it. Thankfully our family has a vacation to look forward to in March….” — Ryan Lewenza

Ah, yes, it’s 26°C here in Barbados (feels like 32°C). The snorkel, fins, and full-face mask does wonders for lifting one’s mood. As does the Malibu coconut rum. :)

#105 Bad Cowboy on 02.04.18 at 6:25 am

Canada has never had a worse anti business government in its entire history as the collection of fairies and flakes currently strangling the economy and literally chasing foreign investment out of the country. Hundreds of billions of dollars have left with all the jobs they’d created gone with them. Bewtween the NDP and Liberals across the country the only job growth has been to the unionized civil service. The only GDP recorded has been all levels of government flooding the balance sheet with long term debt. Trudeau alone has burned through over 100 billion in two short years and Ontario is the most debt burdened non sovereign jurisdiction on the planet….more so than California with 26 million more people to manage. The debt load and waste in Canada is staggering.

The mismanagement through political correctness alone is costing Canada tens of billions I lost revenue for hospitals, schools, roads and seniors care which will never be built for lack of lost money. Americans spent a billion getting Trudeau elected to kill the energy complex….but how many food banks has Neil Young and the merry band of protestors donate to from his home in Los Angelas…the short answer is none.

I trade stocks….a very unpopular profession in this blog….but I’m at poolside in 80 degree weather….who should you listen….the successful guy with a tan…..or the people pulling your pants down?

You need to be out in the streets ….angry as hell for being ripped off the way you have been. You’re being treated like dog crap and vomit…..when will you wake up and demand an accounting?

#106 att on 02.04.18 at 6:58 am

You must have had a bender the night before the University lecture entitled “Correlation does not imply Causation”

#107 Rooster on 02.04.18 at 7:06 am

#22 Mark on 02.03.18 at 3:39 pm & queries #93, #89
…….. In the falling rate environment, investors were happy to pick up USD$ bonds as they could not only enjoy a capital gain due to the falling long-term rates, but also a gain on the currency itself as low rates imply currency strengthening due to a reduction in the expansion of the money supply and a reduction in velocity.
***************
You are “implying” that the largest credit expansion ever (QE I-III) somehow reduced the money supply?? The money supply expanded hugely, causing asset inflation. The velocity of money decreased (a lot) because the money bought property & equities, not goods and services. The long-term rates fell because the US Fed was buying US bonds, not because of any currency strengthening. The currency did not weaken only because everybody else was busy buying their own bonds, and keeping their USD$ for a rainy day. It is starting to sprinkle out.

Your speculations regarding the outlook for Canada are equally a$$-backward. Are you an economist by trade? Maybe Jerome Powell actually is the best man for the job.

#108 maxx on 02.04.18 at 7:20 am

#45 Sebastien on 02.02.18 at 6:22 pm

“What if all the doom and gloom on this blog is overblown? I could see the Federal gov’t (and /or provinces) passing a moratorium on foreclosures and capping the difference in interest a the time of renewal. Example: new mortgage rate = old one + 2%.”

Cue Woody Woodpecker. Why would banks ever encourage and support gubbmint in doing that?

Another one who thinks big brother loves him……if you pigged excessively on debt……suck it up hombre.

#109 LivinLarge on 02.04.18 at 7:28 am

“Commn sense”…reread the Boston Pizza post again. He’s referring to owning units of the franchise royalty fund, not actual BP locations.

#110 LivinLarge on 02.04.18 at 7:41 am

“Disclosure: I own Boston Pizza units.”…OK, like who gives a flying $&@ what you own you pompous twit. This isn’t BNN and you’re not a guest commentor.

#111 666 on 02.04.18 at 8:07 am

Confession.
Been gambling in the markets, including the green unicorn, for a couple years. Spent Jan. on a ranch in Arizona.
Bailed 100% on Friday after personal threshold reached.
20% off early Jan. peak, but locked in solid gains.
55 on 70.
125k locked and loaded.
What a month, what a day!
Super, Blue, Blood moon followed by a Biblical (666) drop.
What next?

#112 Technical analysis? on 02.04.18 at 8:42 am

All the predictions and analysis is a waste of time… unless of course you’re a gypsy. All that matters is controlling your risk and exposure.

You have a position in something? How much are you willing to lose? What’s your potential profit?

That’s all that matters.. Not trying to predict the future…

#113 maxx on 02.04.18 at 9:00 am

#77 I thinks I know something on 02.02.18 at 7:40 pm

““All those poor moisters who bought this junk on their credit cards, thinking ‘it’s different this time’ just learned it never is.” – Garth

———————————————

An acquaintance of mine has invested heavily in Bitcoin. Since way back to middle of last year. And even more so recently. Not sure if he’s ahead, or behind, or how leveraged he is. But definitely used leverage. He may well be way behind, but not a big deal. If he’s in serious trouble, he’ll go bankrupt. He’s done it before. All was forgiven (except for some CRA debt). There’s no debtor’s prison in Canada.”

There is a debtor’s prison in every part of the globe. It’s the life you’re stuck with when you’re old, fragile and in most need of the wealth you could have accumulated, had you not been so stupid.

In one form or another, there is undeniably a debtor’s prison for anyone playing casino to get rich quick.

#114 down and out on 02.04.18 at 9:55 am

Smokie what do you mean Canada is screwed by the Liberals ,all those liberal ads in Ontario during news hour says the Wynn group is the best thing going and the best part is these ads do not affect news coverage of the Cons break up in Ontario .How fair is that and they are using my tax dollars to finance these ads,I am so Lucky .Seriously when is a MPP going to present a bill to stop these ads doing newscasts .

#115 MF on 02.04.18 at 10:26 am

#6 Ian on 02.03.18 at 1:50 pm

“US bonds are being dumped hand over fist and the 10 year yield curve is going parabolic, and will pass 3% next week. No one wants this junk anymore, and the USD is at a 3.5 year low. It’s going a whole lot lower too.

QE is not available anymore, and the Fed can’t get rid of the 4t on its balance sheet because no one will buy it. The yields are already on fire.

1.2t deficit expected next year. Who will buy those bonds? No one.

It’s done. All this market deformity over the last 12 years is done.”

-I agree. The FED is a HUGE player in keeping yields low because of their buying of TRILLIONS of bonds during QE.

What is going to happen when this ridiculously huge player starts unloading them? The great unwind.

This bull run was the most artificially manufactured in history. With bonds in a mega bubble and yields low, money flowed into stocks like crazy. The natural stocks-bonds balance was completely disrupted. Go look at any companies stock chart since 2008 and they are literally the same.

Stick a fork in it.

MF

#116 sleepingdragon on 02.04.18 at 10:29 am

Market correction – 2 years

S&P haircut- 25%

Nasdaq down 35%

#117 MF on 02.04.18 at 10:31 am

#98 Smoking Man on 02.04.18 at 1:00 am

The US had 8 years of Obama’s failed policies before Trump. He did a lot of damage there too.

Go on any forum with a lot of Americans and you hear the same complaining as we do here about their government.

T2 will be history soon, and then the rebuilding can begin.

MF

Obama’s tenure began in the midst of the credit crisis, with unemployment of almost 10%, a 60% stock crash and a looming depression. It ended with recovery, record job creation and a country confident enough to elect an inexperienced reality TV star. Don’t insult others with your failed rewrite of history. – Garth

#118 MF on 02.04.18 at 10:44 am

#105 Bad Cowboy on 02.04.18 at 6:25 am

You are correct about the current federal and provincial leaders being clueless and anti business.

However,

The issue of political correctness and debt/waste is a western world wide phenomenon. It’s not just Canada.

Just look at the US and all the criticism Trump receives. It’s a complete joke. The democrats in the US are even more socialist than our Liberals and even NDP.

“I trade stocks….a very unpopular profession in this blog….but I’m at poolside in 80 degree weather….who should you listen….the successful guy with a tan…..or the people pulling your pants down?”

-Pro tip: the guy who has to brag about being successful on an internet blog usually is far from it.

MF

#119 MF on 02.04.18 at 10:47 am

Obama’s tenure began in the midst of the credit crisis, with unemployment of almost 10%, a 60% stock crash and a looming depression. It ended with recovery, record job creation and a country confident enough to elect a reality TV star. Don’t insult others with your failed rewrite of history. – Garth

-When the economy is at rock bottom there is only one way to go: up.

Can we give Obama and his policies credit for that? No.

The election of the reality star goes to show you not that the country is confident, but rather, that the country was fed up.

No re write of history. Just perception as millions see it.

MF

Give it up. The economy ‘at rock bottom’ had miles of bottom beneath it. Stop being a blinded partisan. – Garth

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.18 at 11:05 am

@#95 Fake News
“you Global Warming tards…”

++++++

Denial is not just a river even when it dries up.
8 0f the last 10 years the hottest ever recorded globally and you stubborn fools still think its “fake news”.
Good to see industry propaganda is working.

When you’re fighting for the last bottle of water tossed off the back of an army truck …..remember this conversation.

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.18 at 11:13 am

@#105 Tanned Cowboy
“trade stocks….a very unpopular profession in this blog….but I’m at poolside in 80 degree weather….who should you listen….the successful guy with a tan…..or the people pulling your pants down? ”
++++++

Trudeau was in a shouting match at one of his “town Hall meets” in Nanaimo on Thursday….
All is not well in T2 land.
Give our economy two more years of spiraling housing prices, rising interest rates, unemployment, bankruptcies, etc……
Then we’ll be ready for an election.
One wonders if the BC NDP will still be in litigation with the Alberta NDP.
You cant dream this stuff up.

#122 OttawaMike on 02.04.18 at 11:17 am

#119 MF on 02.04.18 at 10:47 am

We avoided a depression.
How can that be so difficult for you to see?

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.18 at 11:17 am

@#74 Lost but not Leased
“Review Ruby Ridge and Randy Weaver….or Waco …”
++++++

You left out “Chem Trails” and “Spy apps” on your phone.

#124 Penny Henny on 02.04.18 at 11:29 am

I’ve been following W08 in Etobicoke as I know the area very well and generally know if the market is strong or not. What I have seen for SFH’s is the sales are picking up slightly but more impressive is some of the prices, quite strong. But then there are some reno’ed bungalows that can’t get within $200G’s of last years highs.
For now it’s a mixed bag.

#125 Surfers rule on 02.04.18 at 11:34 am

#99 Smoking Man on 02.04.18 at 1:14 am

The thing that pissed me off about this pathetic blog. Every time I try and pump my book. Boom deleted. .
….

You still flogging that sophomoric pulp..

Start yer own blog…. earn yer own followers.. trying to piggy bank off of Gartho’s millions… deplorable

Learn to surf dude

#126 Cloudy on 02.04.18 at 11:42 am

#92 Blacksheep on 02.03.18 at 10:50 pm

You’re out to lunch. There is nothing wrong with reporting asking prices that are publicly advertised. Everything is only worth what one person is willing to sell for and someone is willing to buy for. Circumstances are irrelevant. Flop please keep up the time and effort you put in and ignore this ignoramus.

#127 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 02.04.18 at 11:53 am

Alot of you high school drop out SHYSTERS just dont get rates are going to normalize. The banks and others key to the economy needed low rates to heal. Now they are healed interest rates are going back to 7% in the next few years. The stock market is going to go Much higher. No crash just normal healthy corrections. RE in the GTA will revert back to the mean average which mean a 50% plus bleed for years to come. Buyers from last year have lost huge sums of money. Homeowners in Canada going bankrupt will not effect the economy.

HAPPY Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

#128 Smoking Man . on 02.04.18 at 12:03 pm

#117 MF on 02.04.18 at 10:31 am
#98 Smoking Man on 02.04.18 at 1:00 am

The US had 8 years of Obama’s failed policies before Trump. He did a lot of damage there too.

Go on any forum with a lot of Americans and you hear the same complaining as we do here about their government.

T2 will be history soon, and then the rebuilding can begin.

MF

Obama’s tenure began in the midst of the credit crisis, with unemployment of almost 10%, a 60% stock crash and a looming depression. It ended with recovery, record job creation and a country confident enough to elect an inexperienced reality TV star. Don’t insult others with your failed rewrite of history. – Garth
….

Yes USA economy was recovering I give Obummer some credit.

But the rocket launch in the usa happing now is a direct reaction to the Trump tax cuts. Second he got elected the market reacted. Money has wings and if flys to places that are freindly to it.

Canada is doomed.

#129 Smoking Man . on 02.04.18 at 12:08 pm

125 Surfers rule on 02.04.18 at 11:34 am
#99 Smoking Man on 02.04.18 at 1:14 am

The thing that pissed me off about this pathetic blog. Every time I try and pump my book. Boom deleted. .
….

You still flogging that sophomoric pulp..

Start yer own blog…. earn yer own followers.. trying to piggy bank off of Gartho’s millions… deplorable

Learn to surf dude
…….

Going this afternoon.

#130 Lost...but not leased on 02.04.18 at 12:17 pm

#122 Ottawa Mike

IMHO we delayed a depression…kicked the can down the road. The longer we have this bogus -boom fiat -currency ponzi -scheme…the worse the correction will be.

#131 Doug in London on 02.04.18 at 12:27 pm

Wow, I’m flabbergasted by all the negative talk here about what a dreadful place Canada is. Am I the only one left in this country who thinks he won the lottery by being born here?
————————————————————
Obama’s tenure began in the midst of the credit crisis, with unemployment of almost 10%, a 60% stock crash and a looming depression. It ended with recovery, record job creation and a country confident enough to elect an inexperienced reality TV star. Don’t insult others with your failed rewrite of history. – Garth

Wow, you got that 100% right.

#132 Lost...but not leased on 02.04.18 at 12:31 pm

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz

I was starting to miss your glib attempts at sarcasm…

on the off chance you are not adding GHG in multi storey building you might wanna check into the connections of Randy Weaver…(BTW won a multi-million dollar judgement via top lawyer Gerry Spence)…..Vince Foster…. Waco…..

Each US Presidency signals something….Clinton’s seemed to be to create fear that small groups could take over the US(all the while Clinton was getting cosy with Chinese and providing them with classified information)…good thing everyone was focussed on Monica Lewinsky.

Clinton’s fellow Arkansaian Sam Walton completed the coup via Wal Mart sourcing in China.

#133 SWL1976 on 02.04.18 at 12:35 pm

#97 Cloudy

#90 SWL1976

I agree its busy out here, but its a one two trick pony between construction and government work. One probably won’t stay this busy forever and the other requires a frontal lobotomy. BIL operates machinery for construction in Calgary and its much busy and pays much better there.

=======

I guess it depends on where you live. I do business with 2 manufacturing companies who reach international markets. I can’t really think of anyone I know who directly works for government. One thing this Island has taught me though, is that if you want to make it here you’re going to have to get creative. We live in small town that has not seen a huge run up in housing prices, but what we have been seeing is many more people recently moving to the area who have cashed in on their housing lottery winnings.

I am not happy with how anti business our federal government has become, but there is not much I can do about that right now. I am a millwright by trade, who honed my skills with CAD software and now do mechanical design and estimating. We also started a pizza shop last year and now have some of the best pizza in the Cowichan Valley. I’ve never been one to keep all my eggs in one basket, perhaps that’s why I enjoy this blog so much

#134 InvestorsFriend on 02.04.18 at 12:38 pm

“We” Are Amused

#110 LivinLarge on 02.04.18 at 7:41 am responded:

“Disclosure: I own Boston Pizza units.”…OK, like who gives a flying $&@ what you own you pompous twit. This isn’t BNN and you’re not a guest commentor.

*********************************
We are most amused by your insult and your interest in us.

#135 conan on 02.04.18 at 12:42 pm

“Obama’s tenure began in the midst of the credit crisis, with unemployment of almost 10%, a 60% stock crash and a looming depression. It ended with recovery, record job creation and a country confident enough to elect an inexperienced reality TV star. Don’t insult others with your failed rewrite of history.” – Garth

I am amazed that Obama accomplished what he did. Bush gave him a plate stacked with crap pancakes.

Obama will get a statue. He is right up their with the best of them.

Kills me, these partisan pin heads.

#136 Russ on 02.04.18 at 12:44 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.18 at 11:05 am

@#95 Fake News
“you Global Warming tards…”

++++++

Denial is not just a river even when it dries up.
8 0f the last 10 years the hottest ever recorded globally and you stubborn fools still think its “fake news”.
Good to see industry propaganda is working.

When you’re fighting for the last bottle of water tossed off the back of an army truck …..remember this conversation.
=======================

What are the economics of global warming?

Some details that are missed in the polarization of the global warming debate is:
– who benefits? i.e.: Canada warms up and becomes more productive agriculture and all receivers of the “scare” taxes, such as current governments
– what is the most wasteful (of resources) entity on the planet? a government
– where does the extra taxes go? to the countries that are the worst emitters and local wasted efforts
– when does it really matter? a couple o’ hundred or thousand years from now
– could we be heading into an ice age, as evidenced by the CO2 peak? Yes!

#137 EP on 02.04.18 at 1:01 pm

To Garth’s reply for #117

It’s true O’s tenure ended with a recovery, but he bought the dip and Trump bought the top and then added to it.
…wonder what will happen to the pile of dept they are all leaving behind for the next generation to deal with, but hey, everything is great today.

#138 down and out on 02.04.18 at 1:13 pm

Garth(#117) I cannot agree about Trump’s inexperience, he helped financed Reagan,s campaign and if you look at any pictures of Reagan at rallies there is usually a young Trump in the background .He was learning and observing had to deal with politicians all his life .I believe he is one of most educated people on how politics works around and will change many minds about his presidency,ignore the personality and concentrate on his actions .

He is the most inexperienced president in US history. Fact. – Garth

#139 unbalanced on 02.04.18 at 1:25 pm

Why does Livinlarge dislike the investor? His portfolio bigger? Did I miss something being away? Just asking. Don’t intend to rustle any feathers.

#140 Prairieboy43 on 02.04.18 at 1:43 pm

Short Canadian $$$$. Bubble territory? Smoking Man?
PB43

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.18 at 1:59 pm

@#132 Lost in paranioa
“I was starting to miss your glib attempts at sarcasm”
++++++

Glad I could be of service.

My goodness, conspiracies under every rock.
How DO you get out of bed in the morning?
Tin foil over the Smart Phone until you need to make a call?
Or does a pocket full of quarters and Public Pay phones do the trick?
Pray tell.
What “mind control” experiment theories does “Chem Trails” fall under?

#142 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.18 at 2:07 pm

@#136 Russ
I’d rather stick with the weather as we know it.
Rather than an uncertain weather future.

The idea of hotter summers, warmer winters, less overall precipitation, record breaking intense floods, permafrost melt, Methane gas release, etc etc etc.
No thanks

Mangos in Manitoba may seem economically viable in 50 years but the millions of refugees fleeing worldwide coastal flooding wont want to “wait patiently in line” for acceptance into Canada. They’ll just arrive by the boatloads in the thousands.

I’m not worried, Trudeau’s children can deal with it.

#143 Smoking Man on 02.04.18 at 2:08 pm

#140 Prairieboy43 on 02.04.18 at 1:43 pm
Short Canadian $$$$. Bubble territory? Smoking Man?
PB43
….

Don’t know don’t care. I trade on the renko system.

#144 conan on 02.04.18 at 2:13 pm

He is the most inexperienced president in US history. Fact. – Garth

He is number one in slapping asses and hanging around beauty pageants. He inherited vast real estate holdings in central NYC and made money.

My cat could inherit real estate holdings in NYC and make money.

Trump can not use this business and ass slapping background to solve complex Government files.

He is far more likely to blunder everyone into a new war.

#145 LivinLarge on 02.04.18 at 2:16 pm

LOL unbalanced, you couldn’t rustle my feathers, or scales depending whom you ask.

Poor ol’ IF is using this blog of Fearless Leader’s to promote his own independent and apparently unqualified online investment advisory and I think that is the absolute height of tacky. Taking advantage of Fearless Leader’s largesse in not coming down on IF for this he compounds the insult and injury. Then there are the periodic little self serving narcisistic bits of pomposity like the “Disclosure….” Delusion of grandeur.

IF admits to posting under multiple screen names and that too, I find disgusting…using the other screen names to praise the IF identity well that’s just sick.

Does this help?

#146 LivinLarge on 02.04.18 at 2:19 pm

“We are most amused by your insult…”…whew, I was counting the days until you started a post with “We are…” Now I can stop counting.

#147 Russ on 02.04.18 at 2:28 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.18 at 2:07 pm

@#136 Russ
I’d rather stick with the weather as we know it.
Rather than an uncertain weather future.

The idea of hotter summers, warmer winters, less overall precipitation, record breaking intense floods, permafrost melt, Methane gas release, etc etc etc.
No thanks

Mangos in Manitoba may seem economically viable in 50 years but the millions of refugees fleeing worldwide coastal flooding wont want to “wait patiently in line” for acceptance into Canada. They’ll just arrive by the boatloads in the thousands.

I’m not worried, Trudeau’s children can deal with it.
====================

Hey Crowdie,

Thanks for the clarification. I was getting worried about you.

For a minute I thought you were an advocate of the global warming tax campaign.

Since we can’t do anything about it, we might as well take care of ourselves and enjoy the few years any human being (carbon based life-form) has on this world.

This includes choosing kraft beer over corporate beer whenever possible. :)

#148 burnaby south gardener on 02.04.18 at 2:31 pm

Re Blacksheep:
A few points:
– Selling to crystalize your gains is an all or nothing proposition. You can’t sell a window, bedroom or a deck. Holding ETFs I can sell as little or as much as I want, when I want.
– Transaction costs for buying and selling RE are very high, the equivalent to 1.5 years + rent. It costs me less than $ 10 to buy or sell an ETF.
-Buildings are a depreciating asset. Houses need regular maintenance (gutters, furnaces, lawns, snow removal etc) as well as regular, substantial infusions of cash to replace appliances/furnaces/retaining walls/drainage tiles, etc. Two friends have recently had to replace retaining walls at cost of $ 55,000 (US$) and $ 80,000 (CND). Locally, the most expensive local repair/replacement for a retaining wall I have heard of was $ 250,000. Zero maintenance costs to owning ETFs.
– The selling history of ETFs, stocks, bonds, and other investments is all publically available. People sell investments for just as many reasons as people sell RE. No reason to resort to subterfuge, or falsehoods (ie the various RE board statistics).

Are there things I don’t like about renting? Of course. Things I miss about owning our own place? Again, yes. Regret the decision to sell our house in the spring of 2016 (after reading this blog for a couple of years? NO!. We can now pursue the the kind of travel we want to do while we have health and funds to do so. Many thanks to our blog host for setting that in motion.

#149 akashic record on 02.04.18 at 2:43 pm

Obama’s tenure began in the midst of the credit crisis, with unemployment of almost 10%, a 60% stock crash and a looming depression. It ended with recovery, record job creation and a country confident enough to elect an inexperienced reality TV star. Don’t insult others with your failed rewrite of history. – Garth

When Obama’s tenure began the bankers were fully in charge of the US economy, Obama’s background in constitutional law was probably even less useful hands-on help in the financial crisis than a billionaire real estate developer’s would be.

The bankers came up with the solution described here in great details:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-03/its-looking-lot-2008-now

Obama’s tenure ended with all the achievements that you described, but also with what you write about here day after day about the price of cheap money, low interest rate that was administered as the medicine to deal with the crisis and impacted the economy of the entire world, not just Canada.

The final judgement of Obama’s legacy in economy is hardly over, it is yet to see if it was resolving successfully the crisis he inherited, or kicking the can down the road with painkillers, that kept the patient as sick as it was before, just happier and even more future debt.

#150 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.18 at 2:59 pm

@#147 Russ
“For a minute I thought you were an advocate of the global warming tax campaign. ….”
********

Nope.
Carbon Tax is another govt cash grab. Nothing more.

A tax that will achieve nothing but more social programs….”Transgendered toilets on every street corner” was the cry…….
It wont solve the problem of global warming.
Burning coal in Kentucky while planting forests in Saskatchewan dont do nuthin fer meltin permafrost.

#151 Lost...but not leased on 02.04.18 at 3:02 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz

(2) questions:

(i) Do the nurses at the home type for you?

(ii) Committeeship can be applied for you…perhaps nominate one of us..if we don’t do it first.

bwhahahahahahaha

#152 Andrei Rotenstein on 02.04.18 at 3:04 pm

Hi all,

I don’t buy the claims made in this post. Plotting Feb-Dec returns against January returns shows no correlation.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VVUTpTMdDCi2hfHFeULAsuCzLXOvB1c1ghmLuv_RFiQ/edit?usp=drivesdk

#153 A Yank in BC on 02.04.18 at 3:11 pm

#138 down and out

[i]”if you look at any pictures of Reagan at rallies there is usually a young Trump in the background.”[/i]

You need new glasses. There was no relationship between the two. None at all. The Reagan’s avoided Trump, and had little respect for him. Stop distorting history.

#154 Lost...but not leased on 02.04.18 at 3:22 pm

Trump( and lack of presidential experience?)

Who cares…

One is a presidential “virgin” till sworn in.

As FDR said..”Presidents are Selected …not Elected”..the implication being the backrooms decide with pre-groomed candidates and often fixed elections.

Obama was a Manchurian Candidate of the notorious Chicago political machine.

IMHO, Trump broke that”rule”. Americans got sick of what was becoming successions of Presidents via bloodlines on par with royalty. Hilary Clinton is an evil witch….and people got sick of her and the Clinton corruption(redundant)….the novelty of her as the First Female president meant nothing.

Trump , love em or hate em….could blaze the trail for long overdue non formulaic change.

#155 Blacksheep on 02.04.18 at 3:22 pm

NoName #96,

“and you point all you “anger” at flop.”

“we all know that I am not brightes bulb in a comment section, but man you give yourself a way to much credit, especially after reading your posts, look how genius I am, next door guy split lot and selling it close to mill, therefore my house doubled but only if I split lot in two and this and that.”

“let me aks you question is your agenda to keep prices up, or you are all rightest one and you innocent with no agenda?”
—————————————–
NoName, lets start with this recent exchange:

#123 Blacksheep on 02.02.18 at 9:20 pm

“Investor # 80,”

“It may have been mostly luck but in any case you did very well.”
——————————–
“Thanks Shawn.

Agreed. Got lucky with the rezoning.

But independent thinking was required to ignore the groupthink I took part in for the previous 5 Years (renting / my fault) on this blog and realize all I needed to do was align my investments, with those of the system.

I learned the hard way, to watch what they actually do, while ignoring what they seem to be saying.”
————————————-
See, no genius involved, just the school of hard knocks.

Let me ask you NoName:

If you were really ‘forced to sell’ your home, would it not upset you that somebody has put all of your negative MLS details on an anti RE blog with a very large readership, all with the goal of showing what a rip off it is or how large a loss you are facing, you know, if you actually sell?

I am an RE BULL and openly admit this.

Flop is a RE BEAR but adamantly denies this.

His claimed motivation is always “to save others” from making a big mistake buying overpriced RE, when you would have to blind to not see his actions (if effective) will greatly benefit his own financial situation, having a direct impact on his ability to purchase a home for his family. This is totally cool with me. He, like I, should do what is in OUR own best interests.

But just admit your agenda, instead playing the saint.

Remember, I was minding my own business and only addressed Flop after he made a snide comment to me.

I have not been posting much lately do to my realization that kool aid is quite strong here and that constant negativity is not healthy when trying to see the world as it really is, not through the bias of G.F. glasses.

#156 Blacksheep on 02.04.18 at 3:27 pm

burnaby #148,

Valid points made.

I would like to bail now but can’t leave the lower mainland due to a business I don’t want to liquidate yet.

So I hold on and we’ll see what happens.

#157 unbalanced on 02.04.18 at 3:49 pm

And who is fearless leader?

#158 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.18 at 4:12 pm

@#154 Lost but last

Nurses?
Committeeship?
Speaking from personal experience again?

:)

Never mind all that.
Stop changing the subject
Please expound on the mind control experiments of the Chem Spray Cartel you’re so obviously concerned about.

#159 LivinLarge on 02.04.18 at 5:00 pm

“And who is fearless leader?”…seriously??? You read “this blog of Fearless Leader’s” and you don’t know who he is? I have been using that monicker for almost a year and you haven’t figured it out yet??? Work on it. A hint: initials are the same as “gin & tonic”.

#160 Bad Cowboy on 02.04.18 at 11:41 pm

#118…..MF….”pro”. I’ve listed many stock tips on this blogs well in advance of the moves…..to prove a point….that Have observed the demise of the oft touted EMT and threw in that towel decades ago. In the past few weeks I have had 3 companies taken out in some extremely profitable mergers….so none of my buying needs any new money. Like AGU I bought at 48 and sold at $230. AAA.un bought $4 and taken private at $8.10.

I have given the followers of this blog a great many doubles , triples and quadruples….and several….like THI…..that were bought at $15 and sold into the QSR merger at $92 huge wins….in adavance,,,,.again…all in the archives. A check of the archives can verify that. I don’t see you doing anything like that……where’s your “pro tip”?

You suck at investing….I don’t….the difference is that I can prove it. Meanwhile…..I’m about to hit the pool…..80’s today…..gorgeous day in the tropics….just did a week in a 5 star hotel in Malaysia…..flying first cabin as always.

List your accomplishments….then we’ll decide on who’s a “Success’. And ……I’m a net buyer , or at least will after the week long dust settles…..my reasons my own…..definitely not balanced. My research has brought a 5 stock group that very well might double this year…..so naturally I will back the truck up. OK….be jealous…..stamp your feet….sure glad your not here.

#161 Ottawan on 02.05.18 at 11:14 am

I’m late to the party here, but I had to say something about the “January Barometer”

If every single year from 1945 to 2017 I predicted that markets would rise, I would be right 79% of the time. At 84%, predicting the rest of the year based on January’s performance is not significantly better.

Maybe we could just ask Wiarton Willie if he thinks spring will come eventually!

#162 nick on 02.05.18 at 4:58 pm

RIP BITCOIN

RIP WEED

RIP US STOCK MARKET

RIP HOUSING?????????

#163 vanreal on 02.05.18 at 5:17 pm

Stocks are plummeting! Unfortunately rather than encouraging people that now is the time to put money into the market, most will be heading for the safety of housing.