How to stop worrying

Love him or hate him (even his wife can’t decide), Trump’s been catnip to the markets. Last year the Dow romped 25% higher with the S&P not far behind. More than 5,000 points piled on the DJIA and it’s recently pushed through the 26,000 mark. Historic.

There’s more.

  • America added 2,000,000 jobs last year.
  • The unemployment rate, at just 4.1%, is considered, technically, to be full employment.
  • The economy grew enough for the Fed to start unwinding monetary policy. Interest rates have increased four times in about a year. More to come.
  • Corporate taxes were pummelled, down a stunning 40%.
  • Companies are making serious money. Profits for S&P companies have risen 9.5%, the best performance in six years.
  • Consumer confidence recently hit the highest level in 16 years. Since over 70% of the economy is the result of consumer spending, it’s big news. Car sales and real estate show it.

This is partly the Trump legacy. Partly the Obama hangover. It’s what happens after a long and protracted recovery when the switch is finally flipped. The current president may be an utter whackjob, misogynist, xenophobe and liar, but he represents something craved by a populace tired of moany whimpers. As this blog pointed out when the Trump rally began, he’s the bridge from a low-growth, low-rate, low-inflation, low-return world to one of expansion and excess. And more to come.

Danger looms, of course. Cutting taxes without cutting spending is a pox on the young. Fatter profits, rising markets and surging rates mean more volatility. Tweets, bad judgment, hubris, Mueller – Trump could succumb to any of them. Camelot could be done, fast.

But Trump is not the economy, nor the fundamental reason investors have made out famously in the past year. The world’s growing again, which is why commodity prices are way up. Central banks everywhere are weaning people off the teat of easy money. Deflation has been supplanted by inflation. Innovation and technological advance are at a fevered pitch. The green shoots we strained to see after the credit crisis are now thriving trees. Trump just found the path there.

So how to invest?

Simple. Build a balanced, diversified portfolio of low-cost, tax-efficient exchange-traded funds and ignore it. Hold safe stuff as well as growth stuff. Don’t speculate or gamble. No weed or crypto. Unless you have seven figures of more, don’t buy individual stocks. But don’t overload on low-yield bonds, either. Don’t flip, time the market or – especially – be motivated by emotion.

There was a good reminder of that this week. For the first time in ages stock markets went down. Hard down. The Dow shed 400 points during Tuesday for the first significantly crappy day in months. This was after an astonishing 6% rise in a single month, and things started shooting higher again when trading started the next day.

But it was enough to stimulate the little hairs on the necks of unconfident men.

Should a one-day drop on the markets scare you?

“Absolutely you should be worried,” one Canadian advisor blogged to his clients on Wednesday morning. “Especially if you are over-weight equities in your portfolio… We have been telling anyone who will listen that we have thought and continue to think that stocks are expensive on a number of metrics.”

Obviously someone believing markets “are just too expensive” for the last two years has cost herself a little over 40%. And there is more to come, for all the reasons mentioned above. The Dow at 26,000 is far from being finished, as the Trump tax cuts have not even yet taken effect. The TSX is actually entering an oversold condition and has a ton of upside. Big value in Europe. Emerging markets have been star performers, and higher commodity values are likely to push them higher.

No investor whose growth assets are correctly balanced with safe ones or who has proper diversification between asset classes, currencies and countries need lose sleep. Just make sure you don’t have an advisor who tells you to worry every time markets shed a few hundred points.

Volatility is okay. Market turmoil is actually normal. Lately we’ve been spoiled without the usual 10% annual correction to separate the cowboys from the cows. As bond yields spike, you should expect stocks to wobble more, since investors can collect good interest with less risk. The key to good investing, as in the rest of life is to stay calm, balanced, and keep your pants on. Especially that.

The Trump effect will certainly survive Trump.

 

175 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 01.31.18 at 5:46 pm

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Pro tip.

If you sell some Dollarama stock,do not reinvest this money in their oven mitts…

M43BC

////////////////////////////////
Gary Smith
Another boxxy flop in the making in Delta. This time in the undesirable neighborhood of Scottsdale. Bordering Surrey.

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sold june 2016 @845,000

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#2 anodomini on 01.31.18 at 5:50 pm

“The TSX is actually entering an oversold condition and has a ton of upside”

Hope so. Since most of my rebalancing this year was towards fixeds and Canadian equities.

#3 Penny Henny on 01.31.18 at 5:51 pm

Hey Garth,
how about putting Stan Brooks on a leash so he doesn’t post 30 comments a day?
The guy just loves to whine about how shitty Canada is from afar.

#4 FULL VIDEO on 01.31.18 at 5:57 pm

Consider it a privilege and honor to listen to such a great and wise leader as American President Donald J. Trump. Due to all the FAKE NEWS and CENSORSHIP out there, not everyone gets to hear the truly wonderful things that he says.

Shockingly, some Blog authors even try to censor the great speeches of the current president of the USA, and keep their own pathetic Blog followers locked up down below to prevent them from hearing all the great things that President Trump has to say, lest they too should begin to desire a vastly better leader at the top of their own country, and a much smaller, better government, and an infinitely better life for everyone.

Strangely, not everyone shares President Trump’s awesome vision of a bright future instead of fake climate “science” doom and gloom, prosperity instead of poverty, gleaming skyscraper cities instead of ghettos, law and order instead of violent criminal gangs running wild, safety and security instead of not even a fence to protect citizens, plentiful energy instead of just carbon taxes, now-rare common sense instead of insane “political correctness,” and the old virtues instead of the new perverseness, etc, etc, etc.

FULL VIDEO: Watch American President Donald J. Trump give his first State of the Union address before Congress on Tuesday, January 30, 2018. YouTube video (2 hours, 1 minute, 32 seconds) [You can skip ahead about 38 minutes to the start of the speech by using the video player controls at the bottom of the video.]:

https://youtu.be/NkpY2VvEEvc

#5 LisaLisa on 01.31.18 at 6:08 pm

The TSX oversold? With Nafta scare and housing poised to fall a bit? Garth, our only export market for oil, at present, is the U.S. through Kinder Morgan. That gives the 800 lb gorilla to our South a huge advantage. They will set the price for our oil and you can bet it will be very LOW.

TSX oversold? That’s emotional!

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.18 at 6:09 pm

Let those ETF’s riiiiiiiide

#7 MF on 01.31.18 at 6:09 pm

I don’t see any massive population boom, especially in the western world. Where is all this supposed “growth” coming from?

Also,

Does a country’s debt no longer matter?

“Danger looms, of course. Cutting taxes without cutting spending is a pox on the young. Fatter profits, rising markets and surging rates mean more volatility. Tweets, bad judgment, hubris, Mueller – Trump could succumb to any of them.”

-Enough with the idea that Trump is volatile. To me he seems cunning, calculated, and genius. All you have to do is go read a blog post from summer 2016 giving him a 10% chance of winning to see why.

And rates are rising yes, but “surging”, lol nope. Can’t forget that little 21 trillion dollar debt in the US, and the rest of the huge debt around the world post 2008.

MF

#8 The ones that should be banned... on 01.31.18 at 6:11 pm

… are the ones who proclaim, usually incorrectly, that they are “first”:

#9 Fake News Again on 01.31.18 at 6:12 pm

Cue the Trump haters…..believe me…..

#10 Smoking Man on 01.31.18 at 6:13 pm

Danger looms, of course. Cutting taxes without cutting spending is a pox on the young. Fatter profits, rising markets and surging rates mean more volatility. Tweets, bad judgment, hubris, Mueller – Trump could succumb to any of them. Camelot could be done, fast. -GARTHO
…..

Agree on all of above except for Mueller. I think a zebra costume soon. Very soon.

#11 SmarterSquirrel on 01.31.18 at 6:15 pm

I agree with you Garth. Weed stocks just seem way too high. Price to sales ratios on weed stocks are obscene. From the research I’ve done it seems global supply of weed could easily outpace global demand making it difficult for all weed companies to keep healthy margins and to turn a profit. Not to mention the black market for weed isn’t likely to go away without a fight.

http://smartersquirrel.com/invest/are-marijuana-stocks-too-high

#12 DD on 01.31.18 at 6:16 pm

I am more worried about Trudeau spoiling the party in Canada, with hikes to capital gains and dividends. And let’s not even mention his deafening silence in response to BC trying to block the only tidewater pipeline that he hasn’t had a hand in nuking.

#13 Trump for President 2020 on 01.31.18 at 6:16 pm

Our Loonie is at 81.4 cents US….Is it going to go higher, or not?
The US dollar is collapsing. Expert advice from Peter Schiff of Gold Pacific Capital:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-31/peter-schiff-warns-theyve-got-no-more-tricks-their-sleeves

#14 MF on 01.31.18 at 6:20 pm

“There was a good reminder of that this week. For the first time in ages stock markets went down. Hard down. The Dow shed 400 points during Tuesday for the first significantly crappy day in months. This was after an astonishing 6% rise in a single month, and things started shooting higher again when trading started the next day.”

-A 10% correction from Dow 26,000.00 means 2600 points. Can’t wait for the moaning to begin when it hits.

Every investing book I have read says past performance does not indicate future returns. They also talk about the increased risk as stocks have a huge run up (such as our ridiculous 10 year bull run). There is a reason why people believe US stocks are overvalued and are cautious. It’s called history.

One thing is for sure though, when she goes down, she will go down real hard. Also, whoever decides to short the market at the right time will make out like an absoulte bandit.

MF

#15 Bezengy on 01.31.18 at 6:20 pm

What are we going to do if Trump actually makes America great again? Maybe I’m an easy sell, but last night’s speech was impressive too say the least. He talks jobs, we talk social justice. Time will tell who has their priorities in order.

#16 Trump for Prime Minister on 01.31.18 at 6:23 pm

Trump is EXACTLY why the markets romped forward!

Had Hillary won the US would be in another military mis-adventure in the middle east or eastern europe and the stock markets in decline.

Before the election, readers like me told you Trump would be a boon to the US economy and Hillary would spell disaster.

Let’s not get it twisted.

#17 Andy Warhole on 01.31.18 at 6:24 pm

“Camelot could be done, fast.”

Garth I’m just an over-rated can painter, but I bow to you sir.

#18 Reality is stark on 01.31.18 at 6:26 pm

Time to start worrying. 75% of all divorces now initiated by a certain gender. As housing deteriorates and people go under water on their mortgage divorces will explode. Their is no tolerance for failure in today’s modern marriage. The fallout will be epic. The price one pays for buying near the top likely catastrophic. Never give in to the pressure to buy a house near the peak. Just say no!

#19 Mike on 01.31.18 at 6:29 pm

.
Hello from GVR.

No issue here with RE. Credit Unions are ramping up lending to counter B-20.

My brother(whom i told not to buy in 2014, and now I thank him for not taking my advice) is sitting on $300,000 equity, and just took a $50,000 HELOC to group up with 10 more similar folks to pay down on a piece of land where they will now build apartments.

And, here I am renting…..

#20 R on 01.31.18 at 6:33 pm

Hi Garth

Would you consider buying Heathway Bakshire (warren buffet) B share as balanced since it is immensely diversified and run by the best

#21 Teachers Pet on 01.31.18 at 6:33 pm

#131 jane24 on 01.31.18 at 1:11 am
How a primary teacher is worth $90,000 in Canada is also crazy. I am a teacher and good one but the work is not worth that kind of money. Job is fairly easy allows me to run my home as well. It is just union power sucking off the local tax system in Canada. Everyone is too chicken to say no and I am not paying someone twice as much to have my children as I make in my more demanding job
******
You have to do the math to understand the value for money .

$90k plus $20k in benefits, minus $10k in employment expenses (valium and alcohol) = $100k

Divide by 25 urchins (on average) = $4k

Divide by 194 school days = $21 per day (rounded up)

Where else can you find daycare for $21 /day that doesn’t involve cages or restraints?

Baby Bonus:
Insider tip for those seeking to buy a house in a “good” school district. Forget the EQAO scores – they all “prepare”;-)
Check the number of cars in the staff parking lot an hour before and after school hours. Don’t go on Fri pm or Mon am, do a random sample and compare schools, but don’t expect to bump into Jane.

#22 Newcomer on 01.31.18 at 6:35 pm

An interesting read in FT today.

(A cautionary tale from an ageing Japan for China
The country’s demographic decline comes in the wake of a housing boom: https://www.ft.com/content/7fe77124-05dc-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5)

Although the article is about how Japan’s fate relates to what is going on in China, some of the folks here, who say things like, “even if the prices in Squamish drop by 30%…,” would be interested by, “Prices for condominiums in the surrounding valley have fallen by more than 95 per cent since the height of the bubble era in the late 1980s and early 1990s.” And people who believe that “Asians” just can’t help buying land, would be well advised to note that, “More than a fifth of Japan’s land, an area the size of Denmark, has no readily contactable owner.”

There is even something in there for the xenophobes to mull over. (Let’s see if Stan can find it and report back.)

#23 s&p 500 on 01.31.18 at 6:38 pm

that’s all ya need. But go ahead and decrease returns by adding …..bonds…the TSX….and what not

MAGA

#24 Technical analysis? on 01.31.18 at 6:39 pm

The TSX is actually entering an oversold condition and has a ton of upside.

……….

isn’t that, like…..horoscope stuff? :)

#25 Confidence Man on 01.31.18 at 6:41 pm

Garth, how’s the weather down there in Grand Cayman? Is this Ryan’s first trip? Next time you are at the Harbourside Bar send him on the “find a client’s yacht” prank. They never forget that one.

#26 Guy in Calgary on 01.31.18 at 6:42 pm

Likely the sharp rise in 10yr US treasuries yield causing some turbulence. They’ve gone up quick. Could also be pension rebalancing. Could be the weak hands selling. Could also be the start of a correction, who knows? Do we even have corrections anymore or will algos just buy the dips perpetually?

People making a big deal out of a 1% dip means that if there is a real sell off, it could get real ugly quick.

Grab the popcorn.

#27 The real Kip on 01.31.18 at 6:46 pm

“Love him or hate him (even his wife can’t decide)”

Oh, I think Melania has decided and it’s hate alright. I’m betting she throws the bum out!

#28 Blobby on 01.31.18 at 6:48 pm

If US is doing so well, why is the USD so low?

#29 Linda on 01.31.18 at 6:54 pm

The key advice in today’s column is ‘balanced, diversified portfolio’.

As for the ‘right to worry’ warning, well, that might be simply trying to reduce the risk of having angry clients sue if their portfolio values drop & they start looking for someone to blame. Kind of like that label on the coffee cup lid saying ‘Caution – contents are hot’. Well, duh, yet a lawsuit was filed & the courts found in favor of the litigant…..

#30 jim on 01.31.18 at 6:55 pm

“Tweets, bad judgment, hubris, Mueller”

Mueller’s probe so far has done nothing other than show that senior members of the US government were chummy enough with Israel to contact the Russians on Israel’s behalf. There’s no other result, after a year of digging. One of the key people detonated his career after it was discovered that he was shagging a coworker and withholding relevant evidence.

I’m not holding my breath. In contrast, the FISA memo is about to be released. If the comments of members of the relevant committee can be believed, it shows some serious problems within the FBI.

Yes, there’s rising instability in the market to go along with the staggering runup in prices. It will be interesting to see what the tax changes bring. Recent polls show surging approval for the new tax plan:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_013118/

#31 common sense on 01.31.18 at 6:57 pm

Well said Mr. T:

I’d imagine your preaching to the choir here about balance.

Raising interest rates, huge debt levels worldwide, bubbles everywhere, etc, etc…..nothing to worry about.

#32 TheDood on 01.31.18 at 7:06 pm

#19 Mike on 01.31.18 at 6:29 pm

Hello from GVR.

No issue here with RE. Credit Unions are ramping up lending to counter B-20.

My brother……..is sitting on $300,000 equity, and just took a $50,000 HELOC to group up with 10 more similar folks to pay down on a piece of land where they will now build apartments.

And, here I am renting…..
_____________________________

You are smart, Your brother is an idiot.

Credit Unions are ramping up?? LOL!

#33 TorontoBull on 01.31.18 at 7:10 pm

@SM
hope you are enjoying your encounter with JP. see the absolute garbage that even the G&M are throwing at the guy.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/the-jordan-peterson-paradox-high-intellect-or-just-another-angry-white-guy/article37806524/

#34 adee on 01.31.18 at 7:13 pm

the decrease in unemployment is due in large part to the number of people retiring. 80 million over 20 years – 10,000 people per day – 4 million per year – many of those 10,000 positions need to be replaced, thus reducing unemployment. that 4 million number has more of an effect than the 2 million ‘created’ jobs

the 2 million ‘new’ jobs created includes all people working 2 jobs to make ends meet. if everyone has to work a 2nd job there will be 94 million new jobs! would that a good thing???

#35 Mom and Pop Shop on 01.31.18 at 7:15 pm

My dad and step mom are recently retired – both in their 70s. They now find themselves looking at condo porn at the foot of Lolo.

They bought a place in 2016 for $900K – all paid off. They now figure – based on sales in the building – that it’s worth $1.35M.

So they decide to hit the bank yesterday in search of another unit to rinse and repeat. They got a real shocker – a million dollar loan with $300K large down would cost them $5,000 a month – not something that would be easily rentable and recoverable. Not just that, no qualification. Duh.

The simplification of this story is – those that shouldn’t be buying can no longer buy. My inheritance is safe. For now.

#36 Rubin Deludin on 01.31.18 at 7:17 pm

#4 FULL VIDEO on 01.31.18 at 5:57 pm
Consider it a privilege and honor to listen to such a great and wise leader as American President Donald J. Trump. Due to all the FAKE NEWS and CENSORSHIP out there, not everyone gets to hear the truly wonderful things that he says.
Strangely, not everyone shares President Trump’s awesome vision ……., etc, etc, etc.
FULL VIDEO: Watch American President Donald J. Trump give his first State of the Union
https://youtu.be/NkpY2VvEEvc
***************

I salute you Brother!

Here’s the subtitled version for the hearing impaired (till we can get rid of them ;-):
It starts getting eerie at the 50 second mark ……

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnpTWKKWQ1o

#37 Bob Dog on 01.31.18 at 7:18 pm

Someone explain to me the motivation to invest in pot stocks. Once it is legal, anyone can grow the weeds. Growing weeds is very easy. The only reason pot is expensive is because its been illegal for a very long time?

The USA sounds like the place to grow. Don’t forget about the opportunity to work in the USA on a NAFTA-T1 visa. Working in Canada is futile at this point.

http://canadiansinusa.com/Working-in-the-US/tn-visa.html

#38 Ooo Canada! on 01.31.18 at 7:25 pm

Your national anthem is officially transgender friendly! The world’s first ‘safe space’ anthem! Thank you T2! xoxo

This is wonderful news for all the men who died in combat!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/anthem-bill-passes-senate-1.4513317

#39 Rubin Deludin on 01.31.18 at 7:30 pm

I found something else!
Someone just leaked a video of The Ontario PC Party’s new strategy for the upcoming election.

Have a look before it goes down:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeXqCptqeA0

#40 Raincouver on 01.31.18 at 7:38 pm

https://globalnews.ca/news/3998127/green-party-calls-speculator-flipping-taxes-bc-homes/

#41 TurnerNation on 01.31.18 at 7:40 pm

Gartho will have to make a new recording. In All Thy Sons Command? No longer.

Whoever controls your language, controls you.

Take a knee, anyone?

Ps. GotGold? Looking good here.

#42 ANON on 01.31.18 at 7:54 pm

Since investment requires faith that the future will return more (which IMHO is highly unlikely), my personal strategy is buying this, then pop as required.

#43 Terry on 01.31.18 at 8:02 pm

“This is partly the Trump legacy. Partly the Obama hangover.”

Fair enough analysis Garth. But please don’t give too much credit to Obama who was one of the worst Presidents America has ever had.

“The current president may be an utter whackjob, misogynist, xenophobe and liar, but he represents something craved by a populace tired of moany whimpers.”

Here you again with your Trump bashing Garth. Get over it! Trump won the election! The fake news outlets are still clouding your mind.

Lastly, we all need to understand that “Man Made Climate Change” was a fraud and a lie! Climate-Gate has proven that!

#44 AACI Home-Dog on 01.31.18 at 8:04 pm

“Absolutely you should be worried,” one Canadian advisor blogged to his clients on Wednesday morning…

That’s certainly not something a seasoned or (my)experienced financial advisor would say.
Stay the course, like 9 years ago.

Those with a balanced portfolio who stayed the course in 2008 snoozed while others losed. – Garth

#45 -=jwk=- on 01.31.18 at 8:07 pm

Your national anthem is officially transgender friendly! The world’s first ‘safe space’ anthem! Thank you T2! xoxo

This is wonderful news for all the men who died in combat!

Because those who fought in wars weren’t fighting for all Canadians, only for the straight, white ones?

#46 Femdom Fist on 01.31.18 at 8:13 pm

One-day drop? Snooozers. I’ll wait till the panicked shrieking is readily audible before hoovering some deals.

Till then, the safe stuff just churns out cash.

Thanks Obama! Trump&Co. for prison ASAP!

#47 Yanniel on 01.31.18 at 8:17 pm

“The TSX is actually entering an oversold condition and has a ton of upside. Big value in Europe. Emerging markets have been star performers, and higher commodity values are likely to push them higher.” – Garth

How does the equity allocation of the balance portfolio look like given the above? Thanks.

#48 Bobby Three Sticks on 01.31.18 at 8:19 pm

@ SmokingMan

A zebra costume?, surely you jest. You are more likely to find me in a polo & bermudas sitting pool side next to a Slovenian hottie @ MarLago in the next 24 months. The US economy may be stoked thanks to your Tangerine Dream of a president but the MRS has made out like a bandit ever since that Access Hollywood tape dropped. BYE BYE Pre-nup, hello Art of the Renegotiation. Funny we should be talking about the stable genius with the small hands on Bell Let’s Talk day. Very subtle Garth.

And Smokey, keep your nose clean while you are state side. Just because you are using a burner does not mean we aren’t listening. Put a foot wrong and not even your beloved nictonites will be able to save you.

#49 Hugh Janus on 01.31.18 at 8:19 pm

According to the fake news, t2 was trying to remember his abc’s. I was surpised when he made it all the way to e. He must have just smoked one. But he is wasting time talking NAFTA especially with important people like trump.

What he and morneau should be worried about is all the corps operating in canada that are going to quickly move south to more reasonable taxes. These corps are accountable only to their shareholders not to a country run by a bed wetting dick head.

Wont be long before t2 is standing in tbe empty manufacturing factories telling morneau he better jack taxes again.

#50 joblo on 01.31.18 at 8:23 pm

That pooch plays for the LA Rams?

#51 genbizx on 01.31.18 at 8:24 pm

Hey but the anthem is gender neutral now…wow what a great country…the slide into irrelevance and the left wing agenda is just sickening.

#52 Yorkville Renter on 01.31.18 at 8:34 pm

Aside from a tax cut, Trump has done NOTHING… saying what woulda happened under Clinton is a BS statement to make because no one knows.

Hey #19 – if you dont have $50k in actual equity/cash to invest, what makes you think you could even afford to buy in the first place? ha!

10 × $50k = $500k… where’s the apartment building going, Regina?

#53 tccontrarian on 01.31.18 at 8:36 pm

“The Dow at 26,000 is far from being finished, as the Trump tax cuts have not even yet taken effect.” -GT
——————————————————-
When the Dow is below 13,000 in a couple years, this will be all but forgotten, by most.

Sorry Garth but you sound so much like Realtors did spring of 2017. A 6% gain in a MONTH in the Dow and it’s “far from finished”??
That’s EXACTLY what was being said regarding RE in the GTA and we all agreed it was spurred by pure FOMO and speculation! A blind spot, maybe?

Besides, does anyone actually understand the full effects of the Trump tax cuts? I doubt any Canadians have spent enough time to decipher the complexities and implications. I quickly read someone’s analysis a few days ago and one of his conclusion’s was that it will actually accelerate the selling of equities in 2018 to avoid future capital gains taxes, which are likely to be higher.

TCC

Stocks fueled by earnings – now rising above 9%. Keep reading. – Garth

#54 TheSecretCode on 01.31.18 at 8:37 pm

Amazon Feb.2 1600est. Is something going to happen in the crypto space?

#55 tccontrarian on 01.31.18 at 8:45 pm

“…investors today are employing more leverage than ever before.”

https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/b7e4a01b61aedc3610f7beb0f1159f6a.png

Nothing to worry about? Uhh, ok.

TCC

Compared to housing leverage, not even on the radar. Say, if equities scare you, write about something else. We’ll understand. – Garth

#56 Yorkville Renter on 01.31.18 at 8:45 pm

#43 – how does identifying Trump for what he is have anything to do with “getting over the election”?

Do you not recognise the slight irony after your Obama statement?

#57 Andrew Woburn on 01.31.18 at 8:50 pm

“Because while the argument rages on as to whether Bitcoin is in fact a currency or a store of value, one question looms large over all: Just what, exactly, is driving its price growth? Well, a consensus answer is slowly forming among critics, and it doesn’t look good for the world of cryptocurrency.

In fact, it looks so bad that those same critics are predicting Bitcoin could take as much as an 80 percent hit in value. That would mean BTC, which at the time of this writing is worth around $11,085, would drop down to near $2,200.”

– Cryptocurrency Tether accused of being a scam and pumping up Bitcoin

https://mashable.com/2018/01/29/bitcoin-tether-stablecoin-alleged-scam/#seuxSLS1Dkqg

#58 Dobermanduke on 01.31.18 at 8:51 pm

#54 Bitcoinnaire on 01.30.18 at 8:03 pm

2018 is the year of the ERC20 tokens. Make your bets early.

————————————————————–

Pretty vague statement. Are you advising to invest in any project that uses this protocol or is there one in particular you are referring to? Care to elaborate?

#59 Cloudy on 01.31.18 at 8:51 pm

Well I might have reached the end of my rope. I’m considering ditching my dream job in Greater Victoria because I can’t afford to leave within anything resembling a reasonable commute. Chances are I will stay but I’m throwing my name in the hat for a few jobs in more central areas of BC. Housing is still overpriced as far as I’m concerned but there are way more options as you can drive in to jobs from 360 degrees instead of 2.5 highways with long commute times (and anything up the Pat Bay highway is unaffordable anyhow leaving the western communities and over the malahat as a place to buy a cheap half million dollar fixer upper and end up a cagey veteran of the war against evil commuters)

#60 Cloudy on 01.31.18 at 8:52 pm

*live not leave. Wish there was an edit function!

#61 Pots and Pans Law on 01.31.18 at 9:02 pm

# 18 Reality is Stark hits the nail on the head.
Spring will soon be in the air and prime time awaits for widespread marriage break ups, relationship destruction, equity cash outs and financial strains are what destroy most relationships. Many millenials will learn the hard way about what to wish for – because they just might get it.

#62 Ooo Canada! on 01.31.18 at 9:07 pm

@53 tccontrarian

Trust me tccontrarian the Dow will NEVER EVER return to 13,000 again. Inflation or USD devaluation will prevent this even in a 2008 type scenario. Better to own shares in Coca Cola than holding cash in a high-inflation scenario. I’m saddened to say this but Garth is likely correct that the Dow will be fine with a few expected road bumps in the coming years.

But Garth is total out to lunch when it comes to the nasty influence foreign earned money has had on our real estate. I use the word ‘nasty’ because the stealthiness of the schemes under which these purchases take place. It has created the high water mark for prices and most struggle to compete. Our governments at all 3 levels have been fully complicit.

#63 Danny on 01.31.18 at 9:07 pm

Trump is a con….pathetic and now repulsive.
His values are based on excessive greed….not the origins of American liberty and welcoming of immigrants.

An oligarchy. ….that uses fear to hide his racism….and is afraid of the FBI because he has tons to hide about his and his family business deals.

Obviously Garth…..you would “delete ” …..if…….Trump tried to send you a comment.

The tax cuts….have been the Republican platforms…for years. The Republicans patted him like Trump likes to be patted……

#64 Hiding On the Backstreets on 01.31.18 at 9:09 pm

“Obviously someone believing markets “are just too expensive” for the last two years has cost herself a little over 40%. ”

Herself? What’s the % of females reading this site? Has one of your surveys revealed that this is a low testosterone safe zone?
I’m seeing more and more of the reflexive automatic use of the female pronoun to designate a generic statement this on the web sites, in books (yeah, I read books), articles. T2 would be soooooo proud.

What gives? My mistake thinking this was part of the manosphere – dog pics, wild cowboy gamblers, ripping on gutless politicians, chiseled abs and all.

Just sent your IP to #metoo. – Garth

#65 Michael on 01.31.18 at 9:12 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/etfs/investing-giant-vanguard-launches-one-ticket-solution-etfs/article37811834/

Even more competition in the marketplace, Vanguard will now be offering ETF’s modeled after a certain starchy, tuberous investing strategy.

At .24% MER for a globally diversified yadda yadda, it might put the squeeze on some fancy pants portfolio managers or maybe those fruit people.

#66 conan on 01.31.18 at 9:13 pm

The Trump effect will certainly survive Trump.- Garth

Sounds like you are giving him a couple of months. Or, are you saying we need to add the term “Trump Effect” to the financial lexicons of immortal history?

#67 PBrasseur on 01.31.18 at 9:15 pm

TSX oversold?

Figuring you are smarter than the market are you?

#68 Jimmy Buffet on 01.31.18 at 9:15 pm

#53 tccontrarian on 01.31.18 at 8:36 pm
“The Dow at 26,000 is far from being finished, as the Trump tax cuts have not even yet taken effect.” -GT
——————————————————-
When the Dow is below 13,000 in a couple years, this will be all but forgotten, by most. Sorry Garth but you sound so much like Realtors did spring of 2017. A 6% gain in a MONTH in the Dow and it’s “far from finished”??
Stocks fueled by earnings – now rising above 9%. Keep reading. – Garth
******************
That’s one way to express the S&P 500 annual earnings. The other way is to look at a chart and see that the rise in earnings in 2017 almost equals the drop that occurred in 2016.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1324/s-p-500-earnings-history

Now if we turn to page 2, we can see the S&P 500 yield has crossed no man’s land:

https://www.ft.com/content/e46dd8f6-22f5-319b-99db-6786fc5c7ad4

That could be ignored for awhile, but the massive debt pile means it cannot be ignored for very long.

“Just about the only way a smart person can go broke is to borrow money.”

Warren Buffet (no relation)

#69 Willy H on 01.31.18 at 9:23 pm

The foundation for America’s current economic spurt was laid out under the Obama Administration.

All economic indicators were pointing upward as Obama left the White House.

Yes folks, Trump inherited it!

Just like everything else in his life.

Trump, like Stephen Harper, poured on more stimulus in the form of tax cuts that will be proven, over time, to have not been necessary.

Wall Street and Bay Street analysts have not been this fiscally horny since the 1980’s. We all know how that ended.

Three cheers for widening the wealth gap between haves and have-nots into a chasm.

#70 Chico on 01.31.18 at 9:25 pm

#38 Ooo Canada! on 01.31.18 at 7:25 pm

Your national anthem is officially transgender friendly! The world’s first ‘safe space’ anthem! Thank you T2! xoxo

This is wonderful news for all the men who died in combat!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/anthem-bill-passes-senate-1.4513317

——————————————-

I’m not a fan of the some of the extreme left propaganda that claims one is a bigot because they don’t promote trans/bi/homosexual lifestyles, but saying that the change in the national anthem is something grave, is utter stupidity.

It’s more inclusive for all Canadians, so what!

The men who died in combat aren’t listening to the anthem anyways. They’re dead! The anthem is for the living.

#71 Timmy on 01.31.18 at 9:28 pm

Trump doesn ‘t deserve credit for the performance of the US economy. It mainly happened under Obama’s watch. When he took over from the Republicans, the nation was hemmoraging jobs. In fact, the stock market has done better during Democrats tenure as opposed to Republicans. Trump is not only evil, but he’s also incompetent. You don’t start a stimulus infrastructure program when unemployment is at record lows and you don’t enact big tax cuts without having some way to pay for them. This will set the US back in the long term.

#72 Tony on 01.31.18 at 9:28 pm

Re: #37 Bob Dog on 01.31.18 at 7:18 pm

Most of the pot stocks will go to zero. This must be the era of the dumbest of the dumb who buy the dumbest stocks.

#73 conan on 01.31.18 at 9:32 pm

High drama at the Trudeau talk in Winnipeg. Best one so far. People are getting very brave with their questions. Love, or hate T2, these talks are political gold.

Edmonton is tomorrow…….

#74 Chico on 01.31.18 at 9:33 pm

58 Cloudy on 01.31.18 at 8:51 pm

Well I might have reached the end of my rope. I’m considering ditching my dream job in Greater Victoria because I can’t afford to leave within anything resembling a reasonable commute. Chances are I will stay but I’m throwing my name in the hat for a few jobs in more central areas of BC. Housing is still overpriced as far as I’m concerned but there are way more options as you can drive in to jobs from 360 degrees instead of 2.5 highways with long commute times (and anything up the Pat Bay highway is unaffordable anyhow leaving the western communities and over the malahat as a place to buy a cheap half million dollar fixer upper and end up a cagey veteran of the war against evil commuters)

——————————————–

As a “come from away” in Nova Scotia, we see a regular influx of people from BC and the GTA. We came from BC because wherever we looked seemed far too expensive within the province, in relation to what we thought we could get for our money.

The country is really big. Get on realtor.ca and see what other parts of the country have to offer, you might be surprised at what you find.

#75 KLNR on 01.31.18 at 9:45 pm

@#33 TorontoBull on 01.31.18 at 7:10 pm
@SM
hope you are enjoying your encounter with JP. see the absolute garbage that even the G&M are throwing at the guy.
___________________

JP – the stupid man’s smart person.

#76 Smoking Man on 01.31.18 at 9:59 pm

#75 KLNR on 01.31.18 at 9:45 pm
@#33 TorontoBull on 01.31.18 at 7:10 pm
@SM
hope you are enjoying your encounter with JP. see the absolute garbage that even the G&M are throwing at the guy.
___________________

JP – the stupid man’s smart person.
……

Whoa! now that was an informative intelectual rebuttal.
Pat your self on the back.

#77 Built to Spec on 01.31.18 at 10:01 pm

Daniel Greenfield

“The Greatest American Speech of the Century”

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/269181/trump-divides-americans-and-un-americans-daniel-greenfield

#78 Smoking Man on 01.31.18 at 10:06 pm

#63 Danny on 01.31.18 at 9:07 pm
Trump is a con….pathetic and now repulsive.
His values are based on excessive greed….not the origins of American liberty and welcoming of immigrants.

An oligarchy. ….that uses fear to hide his racism….and is afraid of the FBI because he has tons to hide about his and his family business deals.

Obviously Garth…..you would “delete ” …..if…….Trump tried to send you a comment.

The tax cuts….have been the Republican platforms…for years. The Republicans patted him like Trump likes to be patted……
…..

Danny boy there are two kinds of people in the world.
1) Those that long for equal out come.
2) Those that look for opportunity and conquest..

You can find samples of 1 in Cuba, Veneswala. Former ussr.

Samples of number 2. Can be found at a orange county marina.

Do you really want to limit your prospects to 1

Stop whyning and learn to make money.

#79 you clearly on 01.31.18 at 10:16 pm

Most of the pot stocks will go to zero. This must be the era of the dumbest of the dumb who buy the dumbest stocks.

……….

have no clue what you are talking about. The irony is that used the word ‘dumb’

#80 tccontrarian on 01.31.18 at 10:17 pm

OK Garth.
How about when the Dow hits 13,000 in 2019-20 (notice I didn’t say ‘if’), you fly me out to T.O. and treat me at a high-end restaurant (perhaps on CN Tower?)
Then we can sit down at your office with your partners while I listen to your job-offer (which you’ll undoubtedly make after you see my portfolio performance over the past 5 years).
I may even let you hold my 10-ounce gold bar for a while, if you’re nice about it. :-)

TCC

#81 Leo Trollstoy on 01.31.18 at 10:20 pm

#MAGA

Trump trolling haters and lovin it

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/02/18/00/3151A86700000578-3452146-image-a-146_1455757107845.jpg

#82 ben on 01.31.18 at 10:21 pm

https://in.reuters.com/article/canada-housing-creditunions/update-1-quebec-seen-tightening-mortgage-lending-other-provinces-split-idINL2N1PP308

> Credit unions in Quebec could soon face the same stiffer mortgage rules as Canada’s big banks,

> Paul Taylor, president of Mortgage Professionals Canada, said he expects Quebec to regulate in line with federal guidelines to demonstrate its influential credit unions are as prudent as the big banks

Prices down 15-20% in London UK, because the sentiment reversed. Now all those schmucks who had houses “worth” $XXXX have houses “worth” $XXXX * 0.8.

Prices are set by available credit plus some multiplier on how many greedy greater fools are left.

#83 David on 01.31.18 at 10:27 pm

TSX is down because the markets don’t lie. Canada’s outlook is not good.

#84 Nothings changed on 01.31.18 at 10:28 pm

family friend selling house in st Catharines got a offer 100,000 over list and may have more offers coming in.

#85 dr. talc on 01.31.18 at 10:40 pm

for those who think weather cant be manipulated or weaponized.

6:20
‘the extreme weather events that are coming are going to be incredibly expensive’
T2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfQNCQVvMJg

#86 YVR - 60% crash! on 01.31.18 at 10:58 pm

Trump for Prime Minister of Canada!
Make Canada Great Again!

#87 Deplorable Dude on 01.31.18 at 11:13 pm

The next 24hrs in US Politics is gonna be nuts.

Deep state blackhats deploying last desperate measures to try and stop White House releasing intelligence memo showing the FBI and DOJ illegally spied on the President Elect and his family. Whilst also attempting to frame him with a falsified dossier.

#88 Hiding On the Backstreets on 01.31.18 at 11:15 pm

#64 Hiding On the Backstreets on 01.31.18 at 9:09 pm

“Obviously someone believing markets “are just too expensive” for the last two years has cost herself a little over 40%. ”

Herself? What’s the % of females reading this site? Has one of your surveys revealed that this is a low testosterone safe zone?
I’m seeing more and more of the reflexive automatic use of the female pronoun to designate a generic statement this on the web sites, in books (yeah, I read books), articles. T2 would be soooooo proud.

What gives? My mistake thinking this was part of the manosphere – dog pics, wild cowboy gamblers, ripping on gutless politicians, chiseled abs and all.

Just sent your IP to #metoo. – Garth

Thanks loads. Are you trying to get me in trouble with the cyber Social Justice Police.
No doubt they’ll use it to try track me down. Nail me for thought crime by my digital IP trail. Using IT guys of course.

#89 Convenient Amnesia on 01.31.18 at 11:17 pm

During the 2016 US Presidential Campaign Trump kept saying that the Stock Market was in a massive bubble at
Dow 18,000 but now at 26,000 it’s great and he’s taking credit for it .

#90 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 11:27 pm

#3 Penny Henny on 01.31.18 at 5:51 pm
Hey Garth,
how about putting Stan Brooks on a leash so he doesn’t post 30 comments a day?
The guy just loves to whine about how shitty Canada is from afar.

———————-

It is called schadenfreude in German, but you are right.

Stopping the bitching.

#91 Boonerator on 02.01.18 at 12:14 am

If you have only 3-5% of your portfolio in weed stocks, that gives you a pony or two to watch and play with. If you are a total idiot you could lose it all, but the loss will not destroy your assets.
No trip to Cancun this year, you should have sold the week before you did. Having a small gambling fund justifies my larger allocation in preferreds, which are safe but a bit boring

#92 Where's The Money Guido? on 02.01.18 at 12:19 am

Former BC Lieberal fall guy for Preme Crusty Clump avoids jail time for criminal breach and theft of taxpayer dollars, set up by the BC Lieberal Mafia…..http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/former-liberal-govt-staffer-receives-nine-month-conditional-sentence-for-his-role-in-quick-wins-scandal

When is someone in this cabal going to go to jail for all the thievin’, especially their pensions!

#93 Smoking Man on 02.01.18 at 12:37 am

How Herdonomics works.

Next hockey game when the national anthem is sung.
When we get to the line “All our sons Cammand” if you hear it a bit louder than usall.

Progressives go extinct next election. My call.

If they use the knew official lyrics. Your all dead men walking. One more turm of trudeau or Wynee.

Hello veneswala.

Jordan Peterson rocks by the way.

#94 akashic record on 02.01.18 at 12:45 am

The terms of racism, xenophobia are meaningless nonsense for someone who is truly aware that we are all one.

#95 akashic record on 02.01.18 at 12:55 am

#45 -=jwk=- on 01.31.18 at 8:07 pm

Your national anthem is officially transgender friendly! The world’s first ‘safe space’ anthem! Thank you T2! xoxo

This is wonderful news for all the men who died in combat!

Because those who fought in wars weren’t fighting for all Canadians, only for the straight, white ones?

====

Only people who don’t speak a gender neutral language can think that a gender neutral language creates a gender neutral society.

#96 AB Boxster on 02.01.18 at 1:00 am

So a president that promotes that government should support the needs of its own citizens, over the needs of the rest of the world is wrong?
A counrty that spends more aid money on the rest of the world than all other countries combined.

A president that supports merit based immigration reform, in the exact style of Canada’s system, is xenophobic. Yeah, sure he is.

A president that supports national symbols, such as the flag, the national anthem, and lauds the ingenuity and resourcefulness of the American system, is a scary nationalist.

A president that supports its energy industry to create jobs and new wealth through Americas energy policies, and at least attempts to bring manufacturing jobs back the the US which benefit all US citizens, (black, white, hispanic, women, etc) is a racist and misogynistic.

Well FFS give Canada some of that stuff.

Our idiot PM thinks the way to build a country is to divide people on the basis of their beliefs on abortion.

Our moron of a PM stands by and watches while the provinces kill the Canadian energy industry. Constitutional crisis here we come.
Alberta vs BC. Watch the fireworks.
Watch this country divide.

Our dipshit of a PM, rather than encouraging small business and entepreneurship, would rather pit these ‘rich’ Canadians against the Timmies workers.

And Trump is a liar?
Well guess what? They are all liars.
Obama was a fantastic liar, but boy he could say it with a silver tongue.
The dazed sunny boy tells just as many lies.

Give me a Trump any day.
He cuts taxes.
He supports his own citizens.
He supports domestic industry.
He supports bilateral and fair trade.
He supports managed and merit based immigration.

Trudeau?
Canada is royally f..ked with this guy.

#97 Smoking Man on 02.01.18 at 1:32 am

The day you find the truth.
It won’t be a sobar moment. The truth only exists in an empty bottle. The realization you have no real friends, that moment in time should be cherished.

Fk you all.

#98 Smoking Man on 02.01.18 at 1:50 am

DELETED

#99 M on 02.01.18 at 2:14 am

..enjoy the unwinding lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNvivEKPmpc

…unless the consensus is that debt don’t matter LOL

#100 MBG on 02.01.18 at 2:22 am

Added 2,000,000 jobs. Also added 2,000,000 people. The labour force participation rate is under 63% and more than 20M of the 154M employed work for the government. The US has some problems; the so-called “full employment” is misleading; there are millions of people sitting idle not included in the unemployment calculation.

#101 Greg on 02.01.18 at 3:35 am

Damnit I hate these comments, I am dumber now for reading them, especially the Trumpites.

#102 Howard on 02.01.18 at 5:50 am

Bitcoin on the edge of a technical precipice.

Blockchain ETF will be a good buy in a year or two post-crash.

#103 maxx on 02.01.18 at 6:30 am

#52 Yorkville Renter on 01.31.18 at 8:34 pm

“10 × $50k = $500k… where’s the apartment building going, Regina?”

Not even – but those monosyllabic first names scream of realtard. Mike, Rexx, Brad……ughh……..

#104 Brian1 on 02.01.18 at 7:34 am

I think that Canada should help pay for the wall as it will help stop drugs and criminals from coming here.

#105 TurnerNation on 02.01.18 at 8:06 am

Vote Stan Brooks [sic] for Ontario PC leadership.

Welp this weekend I’ll drop by Forest Hill, Markham and Woodbridge in the GTA to tell them as per T2 they need “more diversity” in their neighbourhoods.
Guess no one ever studied human behavior or money.

#106 TurnerNation on 02.01.18 at 8:09 am

#33 TorontoBull Jordan P is a paid agitator; his pronoun stunt proved it. He’s another intellectual gatekeeper like Noam Chomsky. They must be paid by the word. But nothing changes.
(The elites control the narrative on both sides, heros abound)

#107 isuckless on 02.01.18 at 8:21 am

Blockchain ETF? WTF is this?
Like saying buy Excel ETF? Blockchain is a distributed ledger technology (not patented). How you can have ETF on this?

#108 Rooster on 02.01.18 at 8:28 am

It sez here the original O Canada lyric was “us” instead of “sons”.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/politics/anthem-bill-passes-senate-1.4513317

I though Cons wanted to go back in time?

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.01.18 at 8:28 am

@#70 Chico
Re the national anthem

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/anthem-bill-passes-senate-1.4513317

++++++

Wow.
Senators passeda bill after 18 months. How efficient.
Other senators complain the decision was ‘rammed through undemocratically”.
Apparently irony isnt a trait unelected senators possess.

Ban the senate.
Another useless group of asskissing political appointees drawing obscene salaries rubberstamping anything placed in front of them while feeding at the trough……
Also known as ….a waste of taxpayers money.

Oh Canada
Another in a long list of anthems that no one knows all the words to and that the majority cant (or wont sing).
Yawn.

#110 Capt. Serious on 02.01.18 at 8:32 am

#100 MBG on 02.01.18 at 2:22 am
the so-called “full employment” is misleading; there are millions of people sitting idle not included in the unemployment calculation.

And how, exactly, would you calculate unemployment rate? It seems pretty reasonable to calculate it from the people who are actively looking for work. The people who are not looking for work are, by definition, not interested in working.

#111 Dave on 02.01.18 at 8:53 am

Worried about what Trump might do to win some political points when its involves trade and Nafta. He could slap some Canadian exporters just to win votes.

#112 Gonkman on 02.01.18 at 8:53 am

#96 AB Boxster on 02.01.18 at 1:00 am
*************************************

Well Said.. Agree 100%…

I heard abosolutely nothing Racist, Bigotted, Xenophobic or Mysoginistic in the SOTU Speech.

I heard someone who seems to want to Unite and Strengthen his country.

PM Socks just keeps trying to Pit Canadians against each other and devide by Gender, Sexual Orientation, Race or whatever is cool on Social Media.

All I see is
USA = WINNING
CANADA = LOSING

#113 Newt Getrich on 02.01.18 at 8:56 am

#96 AB Boxster on 02.01.18 at 1:00 am
………

Give me a Trump any day.
He cuts taxes. (without cutting spending)
He supports his own citizens. (those who vote for him)
He supports domestic industry. (hurrah)
He supports bilateral and fair trade. (after 23 years, only He can see NAFTA is “a bad deal”)
He supports managed and merit based immigration.
(The past “management” created the most dynamic, inventive country in the world. No deportation required)

“Trudeau?
Canada is royally f..ked with this guy.”

( Canada is real-life Catan: wood, wheat, water, minerals, plus cattle & oil. A farmer could manage our economy. If you want to run your sewer pipe thru my backyard into my pool, either pay me enough or bring a posse, cowboy )

#114 earthboundmisfit on 02.01.18 at 9:00 am

105 Canadian senators, at a salary of $142,500 + each, spend 18 months debating changing two words in the national anthem. Total cost … $22,443,750.00. Can we please get rid of this useless, archaic pig trough once and for all?

You just brought down the IQ of an entire site. – Garth

#115 KLNR on 02.01.18 at 9:11 am

@#76 Smoking Man on 01.31.18 at 9:59 pm
#75 KLNR on 01.31.18 at 9:45 pm
@#33 TorontoBull on 01.31.18 at 7:10 pm
@SM
hope you are enjoying your encounter with JP. see the absolute garbage that even the G&M are throwing at the guy.
___________________

JP – the stupid man’s smart person.
……

Whoa! now that was an informative intelectual rebuttal.
Pat your self on the back.

_____

wanted to keep it short for your simple mind.

#116 Tater on 02.01.18 at 9:20 am

So what happens to this “balanced” portfolio if bonds and equities go back to their historical positive correlation?

The large and stable negative correlation we’ve seen over the last 20 years is an anomaly. Much more likely is small positive correlation between them.

The nightmare, of course, is bonds and equities falling together. This would unleash waves of selling from risk-parity programs. In essence, we’d have portfolio insurance 2.0, just on a much larger scale.

So don’t invest. Simple. – Garth

#117 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.01.18 at 9:28 am

How weird Garth. Ever since you gave SCM the option to post twice per day, I haven’t seen her post once. Am I missing something?

Oh, and defund the CBC. If it’s going to be #metoo, #justbelieve, #timesup, #poorwomen all day all the time then I want it gone. If they can’t have a balanced view that represents all taxpayers points of view, adios!

#118 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 02.01.18 at 9:39 am

“Should a one-day drop on the stock markets scare you?”

Absolutely not. 30 days ago I used my technical analytics to forecast EXACTLY this time period for the two big banks of Canada and posted it here for all of you to use.

“Between mid-January and end of February there will be a drop in the markets” at the end of this period is a buying opportunity.

You all now have an edge. Use it. Profit from it.

#119 IHCTD9 on 02.01.18 at 9:40 am

#58 Cloudy on 01.31.18 at 8:51 pm

Well I might have reached the end of my rope. I’m considering ditching my dream job in Greater Victoria because I can’t afford to leave within anything resembling a reasonable commute.
______

A few times in the recent past I’ve mused that urban folks living in expensive cities had to choose between their career ambitions and financial security/freedom. It’s a tough call – especially if you racked up 50-100K in school debt trying to get into the field.

I’m glad you’ve come to this point of realization.

The Wife and I both have good white collar jobs. After 25 years, she would retire right now if she could. She likes her job, but likes the idea of retirement more :). I have felt for the last 5-10 years that I could throw in the towel with a smile. After 20 years, a job is just a job – even if you piloted the space shuttle for a living. It all becomes ho-hum, and free time to do whatever you please seems much more appealing.

Like this guy:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIMXKin1fXXCeq2UJePJEog

IMHO, financial freedom and security is much more important than doing “this or that” for a living. Who cares if you’re a rocket scientist if you ended up retiring to “the projects”. I’d be much more impressed if someone told me they worked at Timmies for 40 years and early retired as a Millionaire.

Having a great career is awesome – but not at any expense. Much better to choose financial freedom if you can’t do both.

#120 Howard on 02.01.18 at 9:40 am

#114 earthboundmisfit on 02.01.18 at 9:00 am

105 Canadian senators, at a salary of $142,500 + each, spend 18 months debating changing two words in the national anthem. Total cost … $22,443,750.00. Can we please get rid of this useless, archaic pig trough once and for all?

You just brought down the IQ of an entire site. – Garth

————————————–

Okay I’ll bite.

How did he bring down the IQ? Granted the statement was a bit of an exaggeration but surely the premise that the unelected Senate isn’t worth the cost is correct?

#121 Howard on 02.01.18 at 9:54 am

#107 isuckless on 02.01.18 at 8:21 am

Blockchain ETF? WTF is this?
Like saying buy Excel ETF? Blockchain is a distributed ledger technology (not patented). How you can have ETF on this?

———————————

Do you not know what an ETF is?

In this case it would simply be a collection of blockchain technology stocks (RIOT, for example). It provides diversified exposure to the industry.

http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/wall-street-criticism-of-blockchain-etfs-2018-1/

#122 good article Garth on 02.01.18 at 10:06 am

during the accumulation years its add to and don’t even look at it

however, could you comment (or an article?) on during the retirement years, specifically close to and just after.

Sequence of returns risk. Any strategies to mitigate. I’m thinking 2 yrs of expenses in a liquid cash position – so as to not sell if the market drops just after retirement

Two years? Extreme. That money perpetually not invested will make a bigger dent in your future than a temporary market decline. – Garth

#123 Rubin Deludin on 02.01.18 at 10:10 am

#112 Gonkman on 02.01.18 at 8:53 am
#96 AB Boxster on 02.01.18 at 1:00 am
*************************************
Well Said.. Agree 100%…
I heard abosolutely nothing Racist, Bigotted, Xenophobic or Mysoginistic in the SOTU Speech.
************
That’s why I posted the sub-titled version. To understand the speech you need to know how propaganda works.

Racist, Bigotted, and Xenophobic are all synonyms (they mean the same thing).

My heart goes out to the two families whose children were killed by gangsters, some of whom are illegal aliens. However, I found it unconscionable that Trump did not showcase any of the 58 families of those who died in Las Vegas. Maybe none were willing to be props, and he did make one passing reference to the tragedy:
“We saw strangers shielding strangers from a hail of gunfire on the Las Vegas strip.”

It doesn’t fit the plan to admit the danger within. The narrative is “That family could be mine, only He can save us.” It isn’t what they say, it is what they don’t admit to.

How about let the pot-smokers out of jail to make room for the gangsters including the NRA leadership who cause more US deaths than all the real terrorists combined. But that makes no sense to you does it?

#124 Smoking Man on 02.01.18 at 10:10 am

DELETED

#125 Tater on 02.01.18 at 10:18 am

#80 tccontrarian on 01.31.18 at 10:17 pm
OK Garth.
How about when the Dow hits 13,000 in 2019-20 (notice I didn’t say ‘if’), you fly me out to T.O. and treat me at a high-end restaurant (perhaps on CN Tower?)
Then we can sit down at your office with your partners while I listen to your job-offer (which you’ll undoubtedly make after you see my portfolio performance over the past 5 years).
I may even let you hold my 10-ounce gold bar for a while, if you’re nice about it. :-)

TCC
—————————————————————–

The CN tower is not a nice restaurant. It is a tourist attraction. There’s 100 better places in this city to eat at.

So, what’s you CAGR, Sharpe, Sortino, average holding period, annual turnover, and average market cap of your investments?

#126 Tater on 02.01.18 at 10:20 am

#116 Tater on 02.01.18 at 9:20 am
So what happens to this “balanced” portfolio if bonds and equities go back to their historical positive correlation?

The large and stable negative correlation we’ve seen over the last 20 years is an anomaly. Much more likely is small positive correlation between them.

The nightmare, of course, is bonds and equities falling together. This would unleash waves of selling from risk-parity programs. In essence, we’d have portfolio insurance 2.0, just on a much larger scale.

So don’t invest. Simple. – Garth

—————————————————————
Obviously, that isn’t an option. But one should still acknowledge the risks and look for clever ways to mitigate them.

That’s what we do here, daily. It works. – Garth

#127 dharma bum on 02.01.18 at 10:24 am

In true Dharma Bum fashion, I’ve checked out of reality for a while. Road tripped out west, Canada and USA, and have not had any inclination to listen to the news, watch TV, check my investments, or any of that useless distracting noise.
Skiing mostly.
To your point of “ignoring” the portfolio – it’s so great to not even think about it for weeks on end, and then, one day, just happen to peek, and see it up by several thousands of dollars.
Money making money.
That’s the way you do it.
By the way, my only contact to the “real” world has been checking in to read this blog.
As always, your financial advice is paying off.

https://imgur.com/a/XvypS

#128 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 02.01.18 at 10:29 am

I agree we are royally f…d with Trudeau. Everyone I know hates him and what he does. He is not a Leader…

My OAP went up $8.50 a month. My rent went up $34 a month, If this continues there will be thousands of seniors sucking off the gov’t teat…….
Why aren’t our supposed leader looking at the BIG picture and a long way out. I guess they are too busy trying to buy votes and trying to figure out how to get more money out of us without us really noticing. Canada is f…..d I am ashamed of our politicians.

#129 IHCTD9 on 02.01.18 at 10:39 am

#96 AB Boxster on 02.01.18 at 1:00 am
_____

Good Post.

It is pretty amazing how many Canadians vote for the destruction of what was once a top tier country with an amazing future. We’ve got it all here, but the Citizenry is voting it into flames.

By the time the Politicians we vote into power enact all the policies that we support, it’ll be game over for the economy. Trump and his crew are eating us alive so far. China couldn’t wait to boot our balloonhead PM out the door, and Freeland had to resort to tears to get a trade [pity] deal from the EU.

Won’t be long before all the Canadians who have dual Citizenship (that number HAS to be YUUGE) are doing the math again. Maybe the old country is starting to look good in comparison. Biggest group of out-migration in Canada is youth who were not born here. Canadian diaspora also keeps getting bigger. Trump’s business policies could really accelerate that number too, if one is still able to gain US Citizenship in the years to come. If Trudeau keeps going, he’ll have to take 500K in every year to keep up to those bailing.

My kids are going to get a realistic synopsis of their options:

1. Get a public sector job of the correct type – that way you’ll still be gainfully employed with a DB pension when everyone else has started eating dirt to survive.

2. Move to the USA. Pick the right State. Pick the right career.

3. Stay here, but get creative. Forget family and maybe marriage too. You don’t have an equal shot here, so consider the rules a guideline. Work quickly, hide your gains, get enough to survive on and bail.

#130 Elephantiasis Alert on 02.01.18 at 10:43 am

[In Alberta, United Conservative Party Leader Jason Kenney said he has been telling Notley to fight back since the B.C. government took power in July. “I’m delighted that the NDP government finally appears to be taking our advice to fight efforts to stop our resources from flowing to the West Coast,” he said Wednesday.
Kenney suggested Notley needs to make it clear with concrete actions such as boycotting B.C. hydroelectricity or imposing tolls on B.C. natural gas flowing through Alberta to the U.S. He suggested that a final resort could be cutting off oil and gas supplies to B.C., which would raise the price of gasoline for consumers in that province.] CTV news

If you missed it, the United Conservative Party is a 2017 merger of the old PC’s and Wildrose. Orange ya glad you don’t live in Alberta?

The WTI vs WCS spread varies between $10 -$20. Give BC half the spread and call it a win-win day. Or send the troops over the Rockies, they can ride on Kenney.

* WTI – West Texas Intermediate crude oil
WCS – Western Canadian Select crude oil
Elephant – US Republican Party symbol

#131 Howard on 02.01.18 at 10:47 am

So this is a new thing. Garth is now censoring comments that are in some way positive towards Trump.

Rules, man. What are the rules here?

My rules. Tedious, repetitious people are put on a leash. Yours is getting shorter. – Garth

#132 For those about to flop... on 02.01.18 at 10:48 am

Here’s something for the people on the blog who don’t want every comment smothered in blood and sawdust…

M43BC

“Mapping the World’s Most Valuable Brands in 2018.

The most valuable companies in the world often have an immediately recognizable brand with a clear message. But the market value of a company’s brand is only half the picture. The brand’s relative strength compared both to its competitors and to companies in other industries is often much more indicative of the company’s future prospect. So we combined both measurements to map the most valuable brands in each country combined with a brand strength index score from Brand Finance.

We got our numbers from the good folks at Brand Finance, who gave us a sneak peak at their 2018 list of the Global 500 most valuable brands in the world. They calculate the market value for the brand names of the most popular companies in the world, which includes the hard dollar value of a company’s assets as well as its trademarks, patents, and what accountants call “goodwill.” Then, Brand Finance scores the overall the strength of a company’s brand based on how it is perceived by customers, employees and other stakeholders. We created our map by adjusting the size of each country according to the market value of its most valuable brand, and we color-coded each country based on its strength.
We did this same type of analysis last year. It’s interesting to flip between 2017 and 2018 versions of the map because it quickly demonstrates how the economy has changed in the past year. Amazon surpassed Google to become the most valuable company in the United States at $150.8B, thanks in large part to the acquisition of Whole Foods. And before Google, the most valuable American brand was Apple—meaning the top spot has changed 3 years in a row. Perhaps Amazon shouldn’t get too comfortable, unless they get those Prime Air drones to take off soon.

Europe also has several highly valuable and strong brands, including Mercedes-Benz ($43.9B) from Germany and Shell ($39.4) in the Netherlands. The strongest brand on our map is Lego at 90.6, although the brand itself is worth comparatively less ($7.6B). They clearly have the market for plastic building brick toys cornered.

China has the second strongest brand in the world in the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) at 90.3, a multinational banking company with a huge portfolio. ICBC puts China in elite territory with a very high market value ($59.2B). Another bank based in Russia, Sberbank, also cracks that 90-point threshold, coming in at 90.1 with a respectable market value of $11.6B. ICBC and Sberbank are both controlled by their respective governments, which makes Lego’s accomplishment all the more impressive.

That brings up a larger point. Our map has a wide variety of different companies on it, but they generally fall into three categories: consumer brands, legacy manufacturers, and banks. There just isn’t the same dominance in other industries like insurance, health care or even brick and mortar stores.

Top 10 Countries with the Most Valuable Brands in the World
1. United States: Amazon at $150.8B and 79.7

2. South Korea: Samsung at $92.3B and 89.5

3. China: ICBC at $59.2B and 90.3

4. Germany: Mercedes-Benz at $43.9B and 79.7

5. Japan: Toyota at $43.7B and 82.9

6. Netherlands: Shell at $39.4B and 80.6

7. Sweden: IKEA at $24.4B and 79.1

8. France: Orange at $22.2B and 82.7

9. United Kingdom: BP at $19.6B and 75.2

10. Switzerland: Nestlé at $19.4B and 83.4

The main take away from our analysis is that a brand’s value and strength are not necessarily correlated. Sure, Amazon’s market dominance contributes to its brand, but the strongest brand (Lego) doesn’t even break the top ten in value. In fact, three countries in the top ten have brands with scores in the 70s, which suggests that the list will only keep changing next year.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/most-valuable-brands-2018

#133 Howard on 02.01.18 at 10:50 am

Anyone follow Natural Gas? Carnage this week.

#134 Penny Henny on 02.01.18 at 10:53 am

#90 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 11:27 pm
#3 Penny Henny on 01.31.18 at 5:51 pm
Hey Garth,
how about putting Stan Brooks on a leash so he doesn’t post 30 comments a day?
The guy just loves to whine about how shitty Canada is from afar.

———————-

It is called schadenfreude in German, but you are right.

Stopping the bitching.
/////

Thank you.

#135 Smoking Man on 02.01.18 at 11:02 am

Who will it be?

Its a wonderful day for truth. The memo and this to follow.

https://www.google.com/amp/torontosun.com/news/national/bonokoski-fear-and-loathing-on-parliament-hill/amp

#136 Cost of Gas on 02.01.18 at 11:10 am

#133 Howard on 02.01.18 at 10:50 am
Anyone follow Natural Gas? Carnage this week

*******
Yeah, it’s coming out of Jason Kenney ……

#137 Ed. on 02.01.18 at 11:13 am

#132 For those about to flop… on 02.01.18 at 10:48 am
Here’s something for the people on the blog who don’t want every comment smothered in blood and sawdust…
********
Or needless repetition. The paper here is free, but not my time. Highlight 1 or 2 points and tighten it up a bit will ya? thank you in advance

#138 ANON on 02.01.18 at 11:13 am

#107 isuckless on 02.01.18 at 8:21 am
Blockchain ETF? WTF is this?

It’s the stuff real visionary dreams are made of: Derivatives (ETFs) of derivatives (Price) of real things (like: “bits everywhere, unite in blocks while staying all over the place!”©)
Do not assume they will be on sale in Bartertown in a couple of years, so load up now (*).

*Disclaimer: Joke, NOT investment advice. Just in case…

#139 aa5 on 02.01.18 at 11:34 am

Jason Kenney sounds like a conservative with fight in him.

#140 John Dough on 02.01.18 at 11:37 am

” There are only two things I can’t stand in this world. People who are intolerant of other people’s cultures… and the Dutch.” (Austin Powers – Goldmember)

Little known fact – Fidel Castro drank the Dutch beer, Heineken (expose on Netflix – “Cuba and the Cameraman” – two hanging thumbs up!).
We need to boycott Heineken and promote Canadian beer and a lotta people on here sure like ” 50″.

If you know anybody at AB Inbev, could you inform them that I have a sure-fire promotion scheme. I just need to get 50 female teachers to sign off on the deal……..

#141 ANON on 02.01.18 at 11:41 am

Coinybit #1 fiercely defended 9000.000 for about 5 seconds on the way down. Trying to get back at it, from the downside. Imagination giveth, imagination taketh away. Will this be The Taking Day? Tune here to find out:
https://bitcointicker.co/
It’s better than Superbowl. :)

#142 IHCTD9 on 02.01.18 at 11:50 am

http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/infrastructure-bank-1.4512240

Get ready for US style toll roads, toll bridges, toll everything. The Libs just keep talking about this, and we will vote them all in again with majorities.

8-10 years from now: 2.00/litre for gas, .35/KWH for hydro, 5.00 to cross any new bridge you come across, European style annual Hwy “allowances” to be purchased if you need to use the 401 – 1000.00 per year, per head.

I hope all you folks have ears to hear the message. It is going to happen 100%. Fees required to access both new and existing public infrastructure. Don’t forget who is running your Province, and your Country.

Ontario is selling off multi-Billion dollar hydro infrastructure to pay the bills and Trudeau is setting up an infrastructure Bank in China. Now you know nothing is sacred.

Also, you know all left wingers even though they viciously hate the sale of public assets to big private corps will still vote the same Liberal fools in again and again. Then they will bitch about paying stupid hydro rates.

#143 InvestorsFriend on 02.01.18 at 11:52 am

The U.S. Economy is on fire!

Trump deserves some of the credit for this but most of it is a continuation from the recovery that started in 2009.

In any case the point is, despite non-believers, the U.S. economy is absolutely on fire.

The latest edition of Fortune Magazine has stories of companies having difficulty hiring and retaining skilled staff. They have figures showing a huge rise in job vacancies. The U.S. unemployment rate is 4.1%! They show nine occupation categories with unemployment rates below 3%.

No doubt some skills are obsolete and some areas are struggling. But overall it seems clear the U.S. economy is on fire.

This has sort of snuck up on me. The unemployment rate was falling for a long time but now it has reached the point where there are shortages of workers. A tipping point. Workers’ bargaining position has improved dramatically in many cases.

What is next? I expect wage increases and inflation and of course higher interest rates. Also less pressure to slow immigration because the workers are needed.

#144 Headhunter on 02.01.18 at 11:57 am

#129 IHCTD9 on 02.01.18 at 10:39 am

LOVE Canada no and ifs or but’s but here are some hard facts in “real time”

I have a Maintenance Manager role i’m working on in Niagara Falls NY. 100-120K USD. Back over to Niagara Falls Canada same job pays maybe 80-90K

QA Manager Food Albany NY same… 100-120K USD In Ontario? 80-90K housing here 3-4X’s . Albany is becoming a hot bed for bio companies also.

Hate to say it, if your kids have any skills tell em head south. They will have a better far easier life…. sorry

#145 Howard on 02.01.18 at 11:59 am

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-careful-metoo-1.4511093

“I’ve been very, very careful all my life to be thoughtful, to be respectful of people’s space and people’s headspace as well,” he told CBC Radio’s The House, in an interview airing Saturday.

When asked if any of his past actions could be misconstrued, Trudeau said he didn’t think so.

——

Interpret that as you wish.

#146 Paul on 02.01.18 at 12:02 pm

#135 Smoking Man on 02.01.18 at 11:02 am
Who will it be?

Its a wonderful day for truth. The memo and this to follow.

https://www.google.com/amp/torontosun.com/news/national/bonokoski-fear-and-loathing-on-parliament-hill/amp
-#####################################
Like I said a couple of days ago, it is HUGE

#147 For those about to flop... on 02.01.18 at 12:02 pm

Ed.at 11:13 am
#132 For those about to flop… on 02.01.18 at 10:48 am
Here’s something for the people on the blog who don’t want every comment smothered in blood and sawdust…
********
Or needless repetition. The paper here is free, but not my time. Highlight 1 or 2 points and tighten it up a bit will ya? thank you in advance

//////////////////

Nope.

Articles will be run in full after argumentative types too lazy to read full article would complain about brevity of topic.

You are still my favourite talking horse though…

M43BC

#148 Paul on 02.01.18 at 12:03 pm

At , 142
Most likely will be out tomorrow after noon.

#149 Brian on 02.01.18 at 12:06 pm

“Trump’s been catnip to the markets.”

Not rocket science.

Trumpty Dumpty cut corporate taxes.

Corporate profits rise as a result coz they pay less tax.

Market value rises to reflect the tax cut and increased profit.

Nobody wins in the long run.

SOMEBODY has to pay for those tax cuts.

Perhaps CATNIP is the right word though.

Doesn’t catnip act as a drug that makes cats act stupid?

#150 Alistair McLaughlin on 02.01.18 at 12:11 pm

KLNR, people who quote Tabatha Southey aren’t qualified to judge anyone’s intellect.

#151 A Busy Beaver on 02.01.18 at 12:52 pm

#139 aa5 on 02.01.18 at 11:34 am
Jason Kenney sounds like a conservative with fight in him.
********

I don’t know him personally, but his Wiki profile shows that he has the required skills to lead a cattle drive in Alberta.

[In mid-March 2015, Kenney claimed that Russian warships had confronted ships of the Royal Canadian Navy and that Russian fighters had buzzed HMCS Fredericton at low altitude while it participated in a NATO maritime task force off the coast of Ukraine as part of a mission against Russian intervention in the country.[79] NATO officials later stated that Russian ships could be seen on the horizon, but never approached the NATO fleet and that all flyovers of the fleet by Russian planes had been at high altitudes.

Also in March 2015, Kenney faced criticism for tweeting photos purporting to be of ISIS enslaving girls. One of the images was taken years before ISIS came into existence and appeared to be from an Ashura procession; another turned out to be a picture staged in London, England by actors.]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Kenney#Investigations_into_citizenship_fraud

#152 saskatoon on 02.01.18 at 12:54 pm

#143 InvestorsFriend

you’re right: us economy is on fire ;)

#153 IHCTD9 on 02.01.18 at 1:23 pm

#145 Howard on 02.01.18 at 11:59 am
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-careful-metoo-1.4511093

“I’ve been very, very careful all my life to be thoughtful, to be respectful of people’s space and people’s headspace as well,” he told CBC Radio’s The House, in an interview airing Saturday.

When asked if any of his past actions could be misconstrued, Trudeau said he didn’t think so.

——

Interpret that as you wish.
______

That is an interesting comment by Trudeau. There is an older interview with Sophie Grégoire Trudeau online where she essentially admits that Trudeau has cheated on her. Trudeau had been asked this question after releasing his memoir, but had denied it. Sophie had reacted with surprise when confronted with Trudeau’s denial.

Does not sound too thoughtful or respectful…

#154 Not a nightmare on 02.01.18 at 1:27 pm

#116 Tater
The nightmare, of course, is bonds and equities falling together.

Don’t fret about capital losses on your stocks.

Even falling stocks should still pay dividends.

Just invest for dividend, not capital gains.

If the market crashes, ride it out. Your capital will be back in a year or two. Tops 5 years. And during those 5 years, the quality stocks will keeps paying your dividends.

Also note that these dividends help set a support price.
If the company keeps paying $1,- dividend each year, it is hard for investors to sell it below $10,- because who wouldn’t want a 10% yield in this day and age?

Better yet, diversify with ETFs and a balanced portfolio. Less volatility and you still collect dividends. Stock pickers are so paleo. – Garth

#155 Stan Brooks on 02.01.18 at 1:48 pm

#105 TurnerNation on 02.01.18 at 8:06 am
Vote Stan Brooks [sic] for Ontario PC leadership.

—————————–

I was a big critic of Herr Harper and Mr Flaherty.

Definitely NOT a conservative.

#156 Shocked in Shawinigan on 02.01.18 at 2:37 pm

#153 IHCTD9 on 02.01.18 at 1:23 pm
#145 Howard on 02.01.18 at 11:59 am
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-careful-metoo-1.4511093

“I’ve been very, very careful all my life to be thoughtful, to be respectful of people’s space and people’s headspace as well,” he told CBC Radio’s The House, in an interview airing Saturday.
When asked if any of his past actions could be misconstrued, Trudeau said he didn’t think so.
——
Interpret that as you wish.
______
That is an interesting comment by Trudeau. There is an older interview with Sophie Grégoire Trudeau online where she essentially admits that Trudeau has cheated on her. Trudeau had been asked this question after releasing his memoir, but had denied it. Sophie had reacted with surprise when confronted with Trudeau’s denial.
Does not sound too thoughtful or respectful…
******************************************************!!!

Seriously fellas, does he look like a one-woman man? Is there a problem here I can’t see? I doubt you are competition for the same talent pool.

#157 Mark on 02.01.18 at 2:46 pm

“The U.S. unemployment rate is 4.1%! They show nine occupation categories with unemployment rates below 3%.”

Nonsense. Wage inflation in a serious way would have occurred far prior to such an alleged 4.1% “unemployment” rate. The real problem is that ‘unemployment’ is largely irrelevant in a world where ’employment’ often means a 10 hour a week job. Or self-employment. Or even not being counted at all by the BLS because they deem that you haven’t ‘looked’ for a job in the past month or two.

US job openings are routinely exaggerated by the presence of 3rd party job postings, postings for immigration compliance purposes, and even by fake ads put out by many employers. Prior to the early 2000s, the only way to put out a job advertisement was to purchase space in a newspaper or other similar type of publication. Now we have online job boards for which the cost of utilization is minimal.

In the technology sector, we even have a lot of employers who deliberately place a significant multiple of job ads on their own online job boards, simply to deflect resume flow away from their real jobs. To mislead competitors as to the future proprietary direction of their business. As a legal requirement of obtaining a Green Card for an existing employee. Etc.

A “low” unemployment rate is also traditionally associated with significant political satisfaction. Yet we have poll after poll that indicates very low approval for politicians generally. You’d think that even Trump would appreciate that the situation is far more bleak than the official statistics imply.

Also, 4.1%, is that really ‘full employment’? Why not 100%? 100% implies that employers would be actively competing for employees, and retaining employees simply out of fear that they might not be able to re-hire them later. In a 100% employment regime, you’d never have any lay-offs as companies going out of business would be eager to sell their already-existing workforces to other employers. Yet this is clearly not happening.

So yeah, there’s so much evidence to suggest that a vibrant US economy is fake news. Last but not least, credit balances are off the charts, especially in the auto loan and student loan sectors. This, again, is not indicative of a vibrant nor ‘full employment’ economy. Nor is the rapidly accelerating trade and budget deficits. Bill Clinton during the last episode of what reasonably was close to ‘full employment’ in the 1990s was able to eliminate the trade deficit and even the budget deficit.

#158 Guy in Calgary on 02.01.18 at 2:54 pm

It is evident that this Government has been wildly successful in dividing us.

I wonder why they wanted to do that?

#159 For those about to flop... on 02.01.18 at 2:54 pm

Pink Snow falling in Burnaby.

Featured these guys once before ,but now the Pink Snow is a little darker and a little deeper.

Originally asking 2.88 then 2.68 then 2.58 they just took another 200k off to be below their buy price at 2.38.

They have a newer product in their favour but they have been trying to flip it since last July.

The previous owner had to lower their price to get the deal done ,but it appears as if these guys still overpaid.

Not everyone can be saved.

There is simply not enough lifeboats on this ship…

M43BC

6008 6th st ,Burnaby.

Paid 2.42 Feb 2017 were asking 2.58 now 2.38

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/6008-6th-street

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#160 simon edwards on 02.01.18 at 3:07 pm

A tribute to the smart and hard working people in Canada:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRNYqsMIbg0

#161 bdwy sktrn on 02.01.18 at 3:09 pm

big bitcoin bounce by 6000.

“i’m free… free fallin’ rip tom petty

#162 PastThePeak on 02.01.18 at 3:32 pm

JT – TMPL – ‘pipeline is going to get built’!

T2 today affirmed that the feds will get the pipeline built, regardless of the latest actions of the BC gov’t.

If it actually does get built in the next few years, I will give credit where it is due. However, much of what comes out of the Liberals is purely “words”, so I wouldn’t be counting the increased pipeline capacity chickens just yet.

Too bad. The main oil benchmarks are really heading upwards, and you can imagine the positive boost to Canadian company profits, employment, Alberta royalties and Fed taxes that would happen – IF Canadian oil wasn’t heavily discounted by over $25 to world price (and growing).

Oh well. We will always have diversity and inclusion to keep us warm…

#163 Mark on 02.01.18 at 3:56 pm

“#155 Stan Brooks”

I used to know a Stan Brooks. Were you once a concert promoter for a bunch of malcontents?

#164 conan on 02.01.18 at 4:07 pm

#135 Smoking Man on 02.01.18 at 11:02 am

“Who will it be?”

Very, very,powerful apparently.
More powerful then a …………..
Ottawa awaits, no the Country waits, with baited breath.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKpVQm41f8Y

#165 LivinLarge on 02.01.18 at 4:12 pm

“Even falling stocks should still pay dividends.

Just invest for dividend, not capital gains.”… well not day to day capgains as you mention in the next sentence, “Not a Nightmare”.

And, you buy equities that have a hundred plus years of history of never cutting their dividends (Cdn banks-my personal favs) then if there are periods of capital reductions like 08-12 then this is one mind numbing fantastic buying op. When our banks dropped by 50% 08-12 that meant if you didn’t dump and run, you could buy them with a 6-7% yield. If you just drip the divs you can sit back and do absolutely nothing but get richer.

Is there a better way to get steadily richer??? Likely and
a Balanced ETF portfolio is likely just one of those “better” options. How much better—-no idea.

Since I have never yet jumped into the balanced ETF scenario, does the account holder earn the dividend income in the ETFs as dividends and therefor keep the DTC advantage?

#166 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.01.18 at 4:16 pm

@#132 Flopster

” who don’t want every comment smothered in blood and sawdust…”

+++++
Ahhh a visual from from my days as a labourer on a construction site.
Reminds moe of the time a carpenter friend of mine air gunned a nail through his finger and he had yet to register for provincial medical insurance…
So he borrowed my med insurance card( no photo ID back then) and had to memorize my birthdate, middle name , etc before he went to Emerg.
Talk about “sweating a test”…nothing like a skill testing question when your index finger is throbbing like a root canal
Ahhh the good old days

#167 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.01.18 at 4:21 pm

@#150 Alistair
“KLNR, people who quote Tabatha Southey aren’t qualified to judge anyone’s intellect.”
+++++

Good one.

#168 LivinLarge on 02.01.18 at 4:25 pm

“Why aren’t our supposed leader looking at the BIG picture and a long way out.”…well, the last PM to actually do that was Joe Clarke and it didn’t turn out well for him now did it. A smart, honorable and truly conscientious leader who learned the “big truth” lesson verrryyyyy quickly. If the “big truth” is that everyone is going to gave to tighten their belts and expect less while paying more to fix the future then Canadians aren’t thinking 4 years ahead let alone 8,12 or 16 years ahead.

The Leader of the Loyal Opposition job “ain’t worth a bucket of warm spit.”

#169 earthboundmisfit on 02.01.18 at 4:39 pm

Of course it was an exaggeration, Mr. Mensa. Jeez !!

#170 Smoking Man on 02.01.18 at 4:45 pm

Atlanta Fed. GDP 5.4%

WHOA!!! TRUMP TRAIN FULL STEAM AHEAD.

The proggesives tax hikers are not going to be liking this news.

Conservatives winning again.

#171 KLNR on 02.01.18 at 5:43 pm

@#150 Alistair McLaughlin on 02.01.18 at 12:11 pm
KLNR, people who quote Tabatha Southey aren’t qualified to judge anyone’s intellect.

_______

haha
even if it’s from her it’s still very poignant.

#172 Evangeline on 02.01.18 at 5:59 pm

If the USA economy is being stimulated with cash infusions that are needed to keep businesses afloat, or there’s a massive toxic mortgage crisis, I can understand the markets crashing at some point.

But when billions and billions of dollars are being invested in the U.S. economy by businesses foreign and domestic, (see Trump’s dinner at Davos with the CEOs of companies making huge investments in the USA) plus China building US factories, and the repatriation of more billions of offshore cash, (which will offset the lower taxes on the middle class), with employment going up, salaries going up, consumer spending increasing, on what basis would there be a crash?

#173 Reximus on 02.01.18 at 6:54 pm

I thought over/ask was over…my neighbor’s 799K house sold yesterday for 1.1

Realtor trick for making a $1 million houses sell for more – price it st 799. – Garth

#174 sleepingdragon on 02.01.18 at 7:18 pm

No one can stay pregnant forever. The housing bubble is alien to common sense. All ponzi schemes run out of juice
when the suckers money runs dries up. An economy fueled by debt and fake collateral is going to leave somebody holding an empty bag.

#175 jess on 02.02.18 at 5:49 pm

225 Midnights on 02.02.18 at 4:32 pm

Ps…Where are the Trump haters now…lol?
Memo released!

=====
the first trump haters
Government Accountability Institute funded by mercer
Bannon’s group (guardian uk)

==

Jens David Ohlin, a dean at Cornell Law University, told The Fix earlier this week: “Consider an analogy. Say there’s a murder in a small town, and the police aren’t making any progress. In frustration, the family of the victim hires a private investigator who turns up evidence and gives it to the police. What should the police do? Answer: They should act on it if there’s something there.”