The unloved

Over the next few days and weeks expect lots of ink on what a mess real estate’s turned into. Once the media gets tired of manshaming, it’ll be houseshaming time. Bad sales numbers, falling prices, moisters moaning they paid too much last spring and wrinklies trapped in properties they were too dumb to sell in prime time.

But nowhere will the heartache be felt as acutely as within the bosom of the 50,010 men and women in the GTA who carry around business cards saying “realtor.”

Yeah, I know realtors are as popular on this pathetic blog as politicians, cat-owners, Adele, MERs or financial advisors, but you might be shocked at just how tough their lives have become. New data provided to an industry real estate publication suggests it’s a short trip from a leased Audi to cardboard under a bridge for many of these commission-only dudes.

Yes, 92,394 properties changed hands in the Big Smoke last year and prices soared to the highest-ever level amid a feeding frenzy that consumed the first half of the year. But, sheesh, 2017 turned out to be an unmitigated disaster for agents. So far, it seems 2018 may be even worse. (By the way, the real estate board does not publish this data. They hate it. Do not want you to know.)

Of the 50,010 realtors, turns out 34.6% sold nothing. Zero. Nada. They weren’t involved in the sell side or the buy side of a single transaction. That’s 17,313 agents taking home no income.

Another 8,344 realtors, or 17%, sold a single property, and earned enough to live for a month or two. So more than half of all agents – 51.3% – sold one or less houses, with an income massively below the poverty line.

How many sales does it take to make a decent living?

– REM online

Realtor and blogger David Fleming suggests four transactions. After fees, commission-splits with the brokerage and marketing costs he figures that would result in a pre-tax income of $44,000. Last year there were 2,738 agents who achieved that.

“So now the big reveal,” writes Fleming, “how many agents are doing MORE than four transactions per year? It’s 24.8 per cent. One in four agents licensed by the Toronto Real Estate Board is netting more than $44,000 per year. Or if you’re an aspiring Realtor, you can say, “I have a one-in-four chance of making more than $44,000 per year; do I like those odds?”

By the way, 90% of realtors did less than ten deals in the year. Ouch.

Of course, this all seems certain to grow worse.

The five-year mortgage rate at all of the big banks has climbed above 3.3% – or a full point higher than deals done at this time a year ago. The stress test imposed by the bank regulator is just a few weeks old, and its impact uncertain. But it’s expected to carve 10% to 20% off the borrowing power of most buyers, knocking at least 50,000 of them clean out of the market (according to the Bank of Canada).

– Bloomberg

The bottom line from both those developments: fewer qualified buyers, with less to spend. That’s exactly why the pricey detached portion of the market has plopped while condos have been hot – in the GTA as well as the Van market. But while buyers may be hard to find, so are quality listings. Little blue dots on the realtor.ca site have been few and far between for hoods that are traditionally in demand. Seems buyers are on the sidelines itching for prices to crash, while owners hide behind the curtains waiting for the market to strengthen – hungry for last April’s bidding wars.

Meanwhile, it’s the worst of both worlds if you’re a commissioned realtor, eating what you kill. The number of properties to flog is pathetic while many buyers are denied financing or stand back, waiting to vultch. As sales slag, cash flow dries. Thus, 2018 could be the year in which droves of people decide there’s a more promising future driving for Uber or throwing frozen Timbits into the grease.

Mama, don’t let your babies grow up to be realtors.

257 comments ↓

#1 i,see,debt,people on 01.30.18 at 6:19 pm

Ummm,,, first!

#2 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 01.30.18 at 6:20 pm

Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#3 Vix on 01.30.18 at 6:21 pm

Just so you know. Mattamy Homes did a release of 150 new homes this past weekend in Milton. Detached homes were going for close to 1 million mark. And there were close to 500 people lined up. People were fighting to get numbers so that they can buy. They were all sold out by sunday. New Construction market is still hot. For resale. January is typically slow. Things will be back to normal by spring.

#4 A Yank in BC on 01.30.18 at 6:22 pm

Isn’t it likely that of the 50,010, a good many simply do it part-time as a lark and have actual jobs otherwise.

#5 Wallflower on 01.30.18 at 6:23 pm

Funniest thing ever watching houses and condos on market now between 4 and 7 months in my north of GTA ‘hooda – often reducing by 1%
Latest $10K off $749K – yep that oughta do it – should be good for multiple bids NOW at $739K!
Previously seen $2K off $539K – hilarious, no words

Is it the agents? Or is it strictly the owners?
Or are they all brick-heads?

#6 R on 01.30.18 at 6:24 pm

Driving uber, are they qualified to do so. Can they read the road signs?

#7 Quebec is great on 01.30.18 at 6:26 pm

IMO the agents that survive will be those who are best at giving sellers a reality check. Ie. ‘Yes its a lot lower tban you wanted to ask but if you need to sell within the next 6 years then this is the best time to do it.’

Time for agents to educate sellers about reality.

#8 5 percent on 01.30.18 at 6:29 pm

Isn’t the commission on selling a house 5 percent here in Canada?

5% of 2M is a cool $100k, enough for a year.

I think it’s a Canadian thing, though, sky-high commissions.

In the Netherlands they charge you roughly 1.5% for selling a house, sometimes even lower.

When it’s time to sell my yvr house, I’ll look into DIY selling, as 5% seems overpriced for the work involved.

#9 Unumizer on 01.30.18 at 6:30 pm

No sympathy. When prices were going up they were getting a 15% raise each year. Rest of us LUCKY for 2%.

#10 Guy in Calgary on 01.30.18 at 6:35 pm

I wonder how many of those realtors are the type that get their license hoping to get a few transactions done during the craze, and are not actually full time professionals.

#11 Willy H on 01.30.18 at 6:36 pm

Now I now why we have so many annoying high profile, over-marketed, vanity-realtors across the country.

There the only one’s making any real money.

#12 M on 01.30.18 at 6:40 pm

..yeah.. just as I thought..
Lots of desperate RE broads on social dating sites.
With a target in mind of course
:)
..they would do EVERYTHING to sell a house.
Sad..but funny at the same time

#13 Dave on 01.30.18 at 6:40 pm

Come on, how long does it take to become a realtor? Never before has there been such an easy profession to get into with such huge payback due to inflation of housing caused by Chinese laundering their money in Canada through real estate.

#14 what about da Dow? on 01.30.18 at 6:44 pm

2 days down… are we seeing a trend reversal?
Would love to short from the top but … this could be just another bear trap. Twice bitten, now completely shy and long.

#15 Terry on 01.30.18 at 6:44 pm

Garth ………. I’m scratching my head with complete confusion with understanding what that “TREB number of transactions” chart means? It doesn’t make any sense on what I’m reading?

#16 toronto1 on 01.30.18 at 6:45 pm

Those stats are pathetic

what a massive failure rate!

Of course RE agents will claim to be professionals etc.. but that’s a pretty sad closing rate.

with those numbers, they wouldn’t be able to cut it on a used car showroom floor or even door to door selling vacuums

But the normal rule in any business is always 80% of the business is done by the top 20% still looks to be true even in RE.

as a customer i would ask any prospective RE agent the following questions:

how many sales in the last 24 months
% of asking
time on market to sell

after this crash- this new fad of RE agents will move on to the next quick rich scheme, what ever that is

#17 steph on 01.30.18 at 6:53 pm

i,see,debt,people

I loved that movie!

#18 Sir Hani on 01.30.18 at 6:57 pm

@#3 Vix

Those naive enough to spend a Million to live in Milton are obviously also oblivious to the current state of the real estate market… duh

#19 Loonie Doctor on 01.30.18 at 6:57 pm

Wow. Those are some stark numbers. If it isn’t driven by a bunch of part-timers, then there must be a few that do really well and a majority who don’t. I thought that kind of unfairness wasn’t allowed anymore. They should vote to have a tithe on the ones who make more money to gas up the Audis for the rest of them. Democracy.

Seriously though, that has to be tough where you have to project wealth and success as part of the gig yet may be barely scraping by. I remember when we sold our first house I was annoyed that the realtor made more money in a few hours than I did in about a month working as a specialist physician. I guess, I shouldn’t have been since it may be quite feast or famine.

If their mommas let them grow up to be realtors, there are lot who are “all hat and no cattle”. Or maybe it’s “all Audi and no gas”.
-LD

#20 Vancouver Brit on 01.30.18 at 7:00 pm

#4 A Yank in BC on 01.30.18 at 6:22 pm
___________________________________

Exactly my thought. Just because you’re a qualified realtor doesn’t mean you necessarily practice it. I know a few people who got a realtor license on a bit of a whim and rarely ever use it. It’s not like becoming a doctor or lawyer or anything. There are no pre-requisites and the fees are quite small.

I bet the vast majority of those with no sales are those who don’t even try to sell.

Not saying a realtor is a good career path, but I doubt it’s as grim as these stats make out if you dedicate the necessary effort.

#21 barnz0rz on 01.30.18 at 7:00 pm

Soooooo…… There’s a lot of people with licenses to sell real estate who have other full time gigs?

Cause they already failed at being a realtor if they can’t close 1 sale in a year.

#22 Red Knave on 01.30.18 at 7:03 pm

To 5Percent
Agents don’t get the whole 5% from the sale. The commission is split with their office and they have expenses to pay out of their portion for advertising, office costs, transportation etc., same as any small business.

#23 Zapstrap on 01.30.18 at 7:05 pm

I make sure I eat what I kill too. Tastes good when you are choosey.

#24 Royal City Dweller on 01.30.18 at 7:07 pm

It’s all in your head, people!

Nothing to do with debt, money, stress test, interest or whatever.
It’s all “psychological”, you see.

So says TREB [R]
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/treb-2017-report-1.4510362

“Shysters” turn out to be well versed in psychology too.

#25 House Prices Expected to Climb in 2018 on 01.30.18 at 7:08 pm

Delusion. Never. Dies.

https://www.insauga.com/house-prices-expected-to-climb-in-2018

#26 Milton Man on 01.30.18 at 7:08 pm

#3 Vix

Don’t believe this Moron. I was there at the opening and there was no line up. People came and went.

Obviously, he’s a struggling, lieing conman, better known as a realtor.

#27 Spacc on 01.30.18 at 7:10 pm

#12 M on 01.30.18 at 6:40 pm
..yeah.. just as I thought..
Lots of desperate RE broads on social dating sites.
With a target in mind of course
:)
..they would do EVERYTHING to sell a house.
Sad..but funny at the same time

============================

You also probably have a good contingent that took mickey mouse courses to be able to wade in the real estate agent dating pool (all the hype of the past few years with the industry being on fire). I doubt it’s a minority that locked a RE agent down after popping out a 25-30 year annuity.

#28 Dave on 01.30.18 at 7:11 pm

Does it matter that this correction seems to be caused solely by government policy? Is this better or worse than them having done nothing?

#29 common sense on 01.30.18 at 7:14 pm

I know we are still ahead for the year but….

Did the Dow actually go down 2 as in TWO days in a row?

Miracles happen.

#30 N'th Graves on 01.30.18 at 7:15 pm

is that T.Board chart missing something or I am just dense, or both?

#31 MPAC on 01.30.18 at 7:16 pm

A good friend of mine is a high school teacher for the TDSB – makes 94k teaching and made 89k in 2016 as a part-time realtor and 95K in 2017.

Unreal! But yes, most realtors are pooched.

#32 Howard on 01.30.18 at 7:18 pm

New data provided to an industry real estate publication suggests it’s a short trip from a leased Audi to cardboard under a bridge for many of these commission-only dudes.

———————————-

They’ll have to share that cardboard with Bitcoin “investors”.

#33 adee on 01.30.18 at 7:18 pm

the uselessness of realtors is best summed up by the recent murder tragedy in Toronto. agent/agency lists a $5m house of one of Canada’s wealthiest people and they put the house keys in a lockbox??

too busy getting your audi washed each day to show up with the key??

shame on you whoever you people are

#34 Whipster on 01.30.18 at 7:19 pm

#1. In Vancouver, developers will offer to locals first. The problem though, is they price so high that residents can’t buy. Then, developers are allowed to market elsewhere. And they do. And the condos sit empty. It’s been investigated and reported on. A ban on foreign ownership, foreign capital purchase, speculative buying for a set period of time would allow a review of the impact on housing prices. If no change, then it wasn’t a factor. If a change in price ie significant drop occurs then we have a more solid conclusion. We have the supply in Vancouver, it’s mostly just sitting empty.

#2. And flop, the home 493 Shannon way is relisted…now 300k below purchase price 2 yrs ago. Still too much but interesting.

#35 Nagraj on 01.30.18 at 7:21 pm

– an interesting day in the mkts, eh?

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.30.18 at 7:28 pm

A slow melt on the housing prices….nice.
Cant wait to see January’s stats and how the Real Estate Industry spins it……

#37 Ace Goodheart on 01.30.18 at 7:28 pm

Terrible news.

Fortunately, there are tractor videos:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJDv7X2AgrA

13 minutes of your life you will remember forever. Who knew building a cattle pen could have so many steps all requiring a tractor?

#38 Sebee on 01.30.18 at 7:30 pm

Year of the Dog is up next in a few weeks.

I guess that explains it all. Real estate is going to the dogs!

#39 Discarded Canadian Millenial on 01.30.18 at 7:30 pm

There will be no crash so long as global financial markets remain flustered and awash in cheap money, which, for all we know, could continue to be the case for years to come. Sellers simply have no impetus to sell, and so long as sales volumes are low and values remain even modestly below their peak, they will hold to their mentality of waiting til next spring, and the spring after that, and then the spring after that.

However, the now well-established mismatch between incomes and property values, as solidified by the stress test, means that a deep freeze is likely to ensue. I predict the lower sales volumes in 2018 than we’ve seen in close to a decade.

#40 Hugh Janus on 01.30.18 at 7:32 pm

I was slammed by some sleazeball website with yvr listings. Never seen that before. Nothing i subscribe to. Dont know where it came from but it looked desperate. 384 new listing today from 800k to 8.6. Good luck to them.

Cbc and all the other fake news has been pushing the amazing real estate hype since the year end. Now they are changing their tune. Its all a big shock now.

#41 and the budget will balance itself on 01.30.18 at 7:34 pm

“Former realtor and blogger David Fleming”

when did he stop doing either ????

#42 Doug t on 01.30.18 at 7:34 pm

Boo hoo – go sell Amway

RATM

#43 Keith in Rio on 01.30.18 at 7:36 pm

In Calgary you can make $1,000 or more a week driving for Uber.

#44 Keith in Rio on 01.30.18 at 7:39 pm

Audi should should sue CREB for devaluing their product.

Same thing happened to the Cadillac STS, a great sedan, that once adopted by these human trash, became utterly saleproof.

Such a shame, the A7 and S7 is such a nice car, but now it is painted as the property pimps “special”. I am sure there is a custom shop in the GTA that can add opera windows and side pipes which will soon be going out of business.

#45 DoubleM on 01.30.18 at 7:42 pm

I am not clear..if people are not listing their homes so there are fewer listings won’t this drive up prices?? Who will crack first, the sellers expecting last year prices or the buyers looking for a deal??? Interested in opinions..

#46 Cash 4 Clunkers on 01.30.18 at 7:43 pm

To raise money, Tesla is selling asset-backed securities of its car leases – giving up some of the profit and all of the risk. The surprising news is that Mercedes already does this. Sounds like a Fonzie scheme to me. I don’t know too many realtors who drive Mercedes, but a lot of investment advisors do. The road ahead got bumpy today, so drive with caution.

https://www.bnn.ca/tesla-tests-investors-demand-for-us-546m-bond-deal-1.983037

#47 Oakville Sucks on 01.30.18 at 7:49 pm

#3 Vix on 01.30.18 at 6:21 pm

************************

Vix, you’re full of dog doddle! Those houses were right next to the Halton DUMP. Nobody is buying them.

Milton is crashing far worse than any other part of the GTA including Richmond Hill.

My coworker bought a house in Milton last spring and now feels stuck in that hell hole called Milton!

#48 Victor V on 01.30.18 at 7:51 pm

#3 Vix on 01.30.18 at 6:21 pm

Just so you know. Mattamy Homes did a release of 150 new homes this past weekend in Milton. Detached homes were going for close to 1 million mark. And there were close to 500 people lined up. People were fighting to get numbers so that they can buy. They were all sold out by sunday. New Construction market is still hot. For resale. January is typically slow. Things will be back to normal by spring.

===============

Call it reverse sticker shock.

Planned homes in a new Whitby subdivision are on sale for up to $90,000 less than similar homes in the same development were a year ago.

Good news if you’re house hunting now. Bad news if you bought into the development a year ago.

“It’s painful,” Astrid Poei said in an interview.

Last January, Poei and her husband Sheldon Fisher purchased one of more than 100 lots in Phase 1 of the new Queens Common community near Dundas Street West and Highway 412.

Phase 2 of the Mattamy Homes project re-launched this month with the same sized lots and floor plans offered at lower prices.

Poei and Fisher say they were “shocked” to find out that homes and lots very similar to the one they purchased are now on sale for $75,000 less than what they paid.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/volatile-housing-price-drop-1.4501010

#49 Max #2 on 01.30.18 at 7:52 pm

Blogger #3 VIX 500 people lining up to buy a new home in Milton for a steal @1 million!??. AAH one of Earth’s special little hidden secrets,? please let me in on what exactly makes “Milton” so fantabulas. Otherwise I would assume that just roughly over 500 people got that flu shot., (not a very intelligent thing to do either).

#50 When the Whip Comes Down on 01.30.18 at 7:54 pm

Its always been that way with a minority of realtors doing the majority of the business. When was it not? I know several part timers. Ever seen what it takes to get licensed? The BC “examination”?. I wouldn’t even call it that. More like at “test”. Flunkies everywhere have passed the thing.

#51 For those about to flop... on 01.30.18 at 7:55 pm

#34 Whipster on 01.30.18 at 7:19 pm

And flop, the home 493 Shannon way is relisted…now 300k below purchase price 2 yrs ago. Still too much but interesting.

/////////////////////////

Hey Whipster,check out the post I wrote this morning on the previous thread.

Thanks for keeping an eye on things out that way.

Appreciate it.

I try to report information as soon as I notice it.

I like to pay my rent to Garth before the end of each month…

M43BC

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Pink Snow falling in Delta.

Featured these guys once before,been struggling to minimize their losses for a while.

Just had a bit of a break and have now put it up at a come and get me price.

On the hook for 1.62 ,which was 320k over the assessment at the time ,now they are down to 1.35 after trying to get 1.75 then1.62 then1.53 unsuccessfully.

Their bc assessment didn’t change much ,but their grasp of how much of a mistake they made seems to have…

M43BC

493 Shannon Way, Delta paid 1.62 March 2016 ass 1.28 were asking 1.53

May 19:$1,750,000
Aug 10: $1,620,000

Change: – 130000.00 7%

493 Shannon Way, Delta

Aug 10:$1,620,000
Jan 29: $1,350,000
Change: – 270000.00 -17%

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/493-shannon-way

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=493%20Shannon%20Way,%20Delta&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1Vk1BQg==

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#52 Chelsea on 01.30.18 at 7:55 pm

Good write up and insight Garth, on the update of homes prices, and the flustered realtors. I really don’t feel sorry for some of these vultures, their rudeness, and snobby attitude. Believe me, my husband and I have had the pleasure of these flowery, airhead realtors. Their attitudes will reverse, when they are starving and have to pay bills. Realtors, are just plain sales people, not anything special … the race has stopped, the horses are heading the other way. Will, be an exiting year of change … and drop in home prices, not there yet, and we, like other buyers waiting on the side line will pounce.

Cheers!

#53 Dead Cat Bounce on 01.30.18 at 7:56 pm

Check the graph, I made my last and final appearance last October 2017.
I won’t be back in the spring, or summer, nothing in 2018 ! Notta ! Nada !

Happy Housing Crash !

#54 Bitcoinnaire on 01.30.18 at 8:03 pm

So who’s taking advantage of the crypto assets on sale this week?

Bitcoin proved the concept. 2018 is the year of the ERC20 tokens. Make your bets early.

#55 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 01.30.18 at 8:04 pm

Garth wrote:
Thus, 2018 could be the year in which droves of people decide there’s a more promising future driving for Uber or throwing frozen Timbits into the grease.
—————————————————-
Actually, you should do a follow up on your story about the minimum wage hike and its negative impact on small business owners.

I’ve been getting a bit of news out of the accounting industry. Apparently lots of franchise owners who have been getting their franchises audited and with the new numbers showing no hope of any profit in the foreseeable future are deciding to give Restaurant Brands International their 90 day notice that they will be closing their Tim Horton’s locations.

Garth, can you do a little research with all your contacts and write about this unintended consequence of government interference?

#56 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 01.30.18 at 8:05 pm

#46 Cash 4 Clunkers on 01.30.18 at 7:43 pm

To raise money, Tesla is selling asset-backed securities of its car leases – giving up some of the profit and all of the risk. The surprising news is that Mercedes already does this. Sounds like a Fonzie scheme to me.
——————————————-
Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

#57 paul on 01.30.18 at 8:05 pm

You heard it here first, Intern scandalcoming out of Ottawa.

#metoo, Should be interesting!!!

#58 Nonplused on 01.30.18 at 8:06 pm

I’m betting similar wage pressures are to be found in virtually every industry except government work and those affected by the new minimum wage laws. They say GDP is growing, but the 1% seem to be capturing it all.

Anyway, looking at the sales stats on realtors isn’t revealing without understanding what drives them. Many people who get their license never sell more than one house, and that house usually being a friend or relative’s. It’s easy enough to try it as a career and then go back to serving coffee. The ones who make a successful career out of it have to work hard and build a large clientele over many years. They also have to be good at what they do and depend heavily on recommendations. It’s like anything else, the talent rises to the top.

If you want to look at even more disastrous results, look at minor sports. I like to use hockey because here in Canada it’s the national craze. Some people spend $100,000 in after tax money on their son’s fees, equipment, gas, tournaments, hotels, skating lessons, professional training, camps, sports focused private schools, dry land training, one on one training, you name it if you have the money they have a program. And how many kids get to play even one game in the NHL? 1 in 10,000. I’m not against minor sports I think if kids get to play that’s great but perspective has been thrown out the window. Many kids could play enough minor hockey to serve the purpose and have their university degree paid for by what their parents blow on training and playing “triple A”. For most people it is a complete waste of their hard earned money. But most people can’t see it that way because we all figure our son is the one going to the show if he just trains harder than the other kids.

But life is full of such delusions, as anyone who has had to wait in line before someone buying lottery tickets well knows. Sure, somebody wins the jackpot, and they get paraded around the media as if everyone is going to, and everyone gets to win a little now and then just to mess with their psychology and keep them playing, but the house always wins. If you go to Vegas your odds are pretty good you only lose on average about 2% per hand, but when you play against the government you lose on average about 70% per play.

So here is the question I’d like to pose today: If we are in general so unable to deal with the odds in situations like minor sports and lotteries, and draw logical conclusions, how can we trust our brains to be doing anything right? From that context housing bubbles, and bubbles in practically anything else, seem a certainty.

2 bubbles I am actively avoiding right now are Bitscam and legalized pot. Why? Well I think Bitscam speaks for itself, it is a totally unnecessary product that solves no problem in a highly complicated and expensive way. If you don’t like dollars buy gold or silver. At least you might be able to barter it when the power is out. And as for pot, who is it that thinks there isn’t a well established supply chain already? Is there huge pent up demand that isn’t being satisfied? Is it currently unavailable? Will the current suppliers and growers just happily cede their market share? I don’t think so. It’s already cheaper to buy it illegally than it ever will be to buy it legally. They’d have to clamp down on it like alcohol to make a difference. The whole purpose of legalization is so the government can tax it, an expense not currently included in the price.

The main problem with the human race is not what we don’t know, but what we think we know that just isn’t so. (Not mine but I forget who.) You cannot beat the VLT. Minimum wages don’t work. Socialism doesn’t work. Your son is not playing in the NHL, ever. The earth is not flat and it’s not 6000 years old. The flood was local, not global, and it was a natural event. Your cell phone does not cause cancer. Homeopathy is just distilled water. You had a dream, you weren’t abducted by aliens. There are no ghosts. The government isn’t out to get you (although they may be out to get everybody). Politicians seem like reptile shape shifters but they are really just crooks. They don’t date fossils by the rocks and then date the rocks by the fossils.
Practically every fossil is a transitional form. DARPA does not control the weather and contrails are just airplane exhaust, no different than what comes out of your car but it’s -40 Celsius up there! What does your car exhaust look like when it’s -40?

The human brain sucks. It is designed to reproduce, hunt and gather food, nothing more. That we’ve managed to get more out of it than that is a complete freak of evolution.

#59 Vix is Lying on 01.30.18 at 8:07 pm

The Mattamy release was a huge swath of beige townhomes and beige townhomes called Village Homes. Yes many idiots were out snapping them up, because Mattamy cleverly had them priced, with a discount at $485,000. Mattamy was smart to price these places at about $50,000 below resales hence all the dummies rushed in, Vix the smart investors call this a Bull Trap – hope you got snapped by it!

#60 Eyestrain on 01.30.18 at 8:08 pm

#15 Terry on 01.30.18 at 6:44 pm

Garth ………. I’m scratching my head with complete confusion with understanding what that “TREB number of transactions” chart means? It doesn’t make any sense on what I’m reading?
***********

I’m with you Terry. Why, the data almost seems designed to confuse people . Short answer below*

For example, in the column “Range” the data row “<1" could mean "0" if these are integers, or it could mean a semi-detached home was sold (i.e. 1/2), or it could be 1/4 of a row house.

The second column "#" is the number of house (or maybe partial house) sales made. It should be labelled "Cumulative #" cuz that is what the values actually are.

The third column "%" is the percentage of realtors (from a total number of 50,010) who sold less than that number of houses in the corresponding Range. It is actually a cumulative % and should be labelled as such.

This type of data presentation has been used for many years in pyramid schemes to motivate the unsophisticated rubes who overpopulate our planet.

*Subtract each row from the one above it and voila, all is revealed.

#61 ww1 on 01.30.18 at 8:10 pm

#22 Red Knave on 01.30.18 at 7:03 pm
To 5Percent
Agents don’t get the whole 5% from the sale. The commission is split with their office and they have expenses to pay out of their portion for advertising, office costs, transportation etc., same as any small business.

It’s worse than that. The listing agent & office get 2.5% and the selling agent & office get 2.5%. Once each agent splits his/her/they share with their office, they actually get 1.25%. From which income taxes get deducted and expenses get paid. Pretty hard to live on one sale a year!

#62 arfmoocat on 01.30.18 at 8:11 pm

Toronto Toronto Toronto

It’s like Toronto is the center of the universe on this blog and Vancouver a close second.

The rest of Canada doesn’t exist.

#63 conan on 01.30.18 at 8:12 pm

Big State Of The Union talk fest for the Trumpster tonite!

Must watch TV, or is it?

https://youtu.be/lNgrGYKgAEc?t=40

#64 -=jwk=- on 01.30.18 at 8:13 pm

dont let ’em pick guitars or drive in old trucks.

Did I mention we bought a KIA? It’s made of plastic,also it has a digital clock. If you buy the deeeluxe version you get a bigger digital clock. Seriously.

#65 Danny on 01.30.18 at 8:14 pm

Very good picture.
But is there any statistic on how many RE agents are part timers….like retired teachers and public servants, property managers, etc. ….who are just supplementing their full time job or life time pension?

I know a few who fall into this category…and purchased condos because of low relative cost for speculation reasons….those amateur landlords you recognized many times in your blog. So for sure many RE agents also feeding the condo sales fire…ready to sell once the condos are built. More eager to sell now because of new rent control by government.

Actually I forgot ….I know at least four real estate “pushers”……. Pathetic Donald Trump….real estate garu…born with the good luck horseshoe up you know what…….making other countries ‘great again ” while he is too quiet about his foreign businesses…which started some time ago with much financing from his ” bank of Daddy ” many years ago.

FBI getting too close to figuring out the under the table money stuff. Republicans pulling all stops and nervous.

Remember the song “I fought the law and the law one”…

The truth always comes out …..even in the mafia….someone talks….eventually. …and history catches up.

#66 Lorne on 01.30.18 at 8:14 pm

#8 5 percent
Isn’t the commission on selling a house 5 percent here in Canada?

5% of 2M is a cool $100k, enough for a year.

I think it’s a Canadian thing, though, sky-high commissions.

In the Netherlands they charge you roughly 1.5% for selling a house, sometimes even lower.

When it’s time to sell my yvr house, I’ll look into DIY selling, as 5% seems overpriced for the work involved.
……..
Realtors….what do they add to our economy?? I am actually able to figure out that a particular room is the bathroom! Do we have somebody help us to sell our car…no. Why do so many think they need a realtor to help them sell their house? Has never made sense to me and I have never used one (and yes I have owned houses!). Think about value before you feel you have to use a realtor to sell a home!

#67 Realtor Friend on 01.30.18 at 8:20 pm

A realtor we know, told me that they have not had a sale since May. Since May, no pay check, Nada! To make things worse, many realtors use “spring sales” to pay for last year’s taxes – ouch! No spring showers, no money or flowers.

#68 Smartalox on 01.30.18 at 8:21 pm

Real Estate dealership has always been a side hustle, even before the term existed. Housewives used to do it for ‘mad money’ while the kids were in school. Knew a guy in University, did it to pay his way through, too. Though his parents were in the business, too, so that might have eased his overhead.

My neighbour in Vancouver does IT work for a large local organization , and deals a little real estate on the side. Can’t be earning all that much though, he still lives next door to me!

I recall doing taxes for my Mom before she retired, while she still held on to her RE license in Ontario, in case of opportunity. Her fees were astronomical though: brokerage, RECO, etc. some $3000 per year!

If you’re busy, then it’s easy to write off against income, but she was living off cpp, oas and gis, paying 20% of her income to perpetuate a myth. I had to make her give it up.

Also, I wonder how many of those in to 0-deal category are actually dead, or have moved away. The industry is so poorly regulated, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the membership list is not well maintained.

#69 Cloudy on 01.30.18 at 8:22 pm

Mortgage brokers are selfishly upset B20 will lower available credit and put a mild damper on their ridiculously overpaid easy-money streak. Shocking!

https://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/people/2018-forecast-will-the-housing-market-crash-by-years-end-235750.aspx

#70 Long-Time Lurker on 01.30.18 at 8:26 pm

#67 Hairhead on 01.29.18 at 8:23 pm
I got you all beat. My ratio is 111.

No joke. The house I live in is “valued” at 4.4 million. I rent for $3,300/month.

>Oh Hairhead, I so envy you and now not just for your hair.

#213 Cool hand luke on 01.30.18 at 3:41 pm

>Wow. Cool Hand Luke is here.

#215 John in Stoon on 01.30.18 at 3:50 pm
Looking to change advisors.

Currently with one that uses mutual funds and I find the fees excessive.

Not comfortable DIY.

80k in wifes RRSP and kids RESP. 20 years to go. I have a pension. House will be paid off by retirement. Have other assets such as land, inheritance lol.

While lower fees are just one of the things I’m looking at for an advisor amongst returns and financial planning, lower fees is an important check mark for me.

Any help to be pointed in the right direction would be appreciated.

>Figure out your goals. Write them down. Learn from Garth’s writings and remember what you’ve learned. Go see a fee-based financial advisor. Get a financial strategy and plan figured out for yourself with the help. Execute the plan yourself. Go see the advisor once a year to update your plan, for advice or whenever you feel you need help.

#39 Discarded Canadian Millenial on 01.30.18 at 7:30 pm
There will be no crash so long as global financial markets remain flustered and awash in cheap money, which, for all we know, could continue to be the case for years to come. Sellers simply have no impetus to sell, and so long as sales volumes are low and values remain even modestly below their peak, they will hold to their mentality of waiting til next spring, and the spring after that, and then the spring after that.

However, the now well-established mismatch between incomes and property values, as solidified by the stress test, means that a deep freeze is likely to ensue. I predict the lower sales volumes in 2018 than we’ve seen in close to a decade.

>Is that you SCM? A perfectly reasonable argument there. Now figure out how to use your brain to make money.

#71 Jeane Dixon on 01.30.18 at 8:26 pm

I predict that President Trump’s trousers will spontaneously ignite at 9:14 pm EST.

I previously predicted the coming market meltdown yesterday at 6:02 am, but Garth kept that one to himself. It is probably a coincidence that pinging the IP address of this site now shows 64.96.7.124 , which whois shows as the Cayman Islands. hmmm…..

#72 Old Ron the Realtor on 01.30.18 at 8:29 pm

Garth man, TREB will publish 26 pages of data in the next few days for the month of January. No conspiracy no collusion, no concealment. The pdf is available on line to anyone, who wants to read 26 pages of data.

As far as the number of agents ? In Biology it is called carrying capacity. When a house sale made an agent about $1,000 many years ago, there were about 6,000 agents. The available commission determines in part how many agents can be supported.

If 1% gross commish became the norm, then we would see a corresponding crash in the number of agents, probably down to about 12,000.

#73 Smoking Man on 01.30.18 at 8:30 pm

Whos going to watch #SOTU

My full commentary after

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#74 For those about to flop... on 01.30.18 at 8:31 pm

Recent Sale Report.

This house on the Westside just sold.

1505 Tolmie St,Vancouver.

Originally asking 8.98 then 8.49 then 7.88 then 7.79 then 6.99

Just sold for 6.35

Tax assessment 8.08

No recent sales history ,and so although they didn’t get as much as they wanted they’re most likely saying this house was good Tolmie…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1505-tolmie-street

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#75 Newcomer on 01.30.18 at 8:34 pm

As I understand it, Timbits, like all other Timmies “doughnuts” are not fried at any point. They are par-baked and then frozen before being shipped to the stores, then rebaked on site before glazing. They would be better described as sugar-coated cakes than donuts. Sadly, there is no grease involved (mmmmm, greeease).

#76 paying my share on 01.30.18 at 8:35 pm

Is this where bulls#$t coin goes down the crapper, it’s been going around the bowl for a while now.

#77 common sense on 01.30.18 at 8:39 pm

#62 Arfmoocat

How long have you lived in Canada?

Are you just realising this?

#78 Gravy Train on 01.30.18 at 8:43 pm

“Truth is the gateway drug to science.” — Stephen Colbert

#79 Ian on 01.30.18 at 8:46 pm

Wow Guantanamo back open for business!

Be careful Smoky.

#80 Deplorable Dude on 01.30.18 at 8:47 pm

NAFTA round 6 negotiations ended today.

Our ‘Princess rainbow Sparkles’ is way out of her depth..

Bambi vs Godzilla….

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/01/30/nafta-round-6-ustr-robert-lighthizer-highlights-canadas-deceptive-negotiation-approach/

#81 fishman on 01.30.18 at 8:51 pm

Where’s that millennial kid? Vince let him back into the ring & he’s off posing somewhere.
Speaking of realtors: Sunday morning the King; Bob Rennie bought me a coffee. He told me to tell all my friends that he’s a good guy. I guess he’s working on building his reputation. Last time on here when I mentioned him, there was a good lot of negative sentiment. I’m sure he wants to make up to all of you & be a better person. So be nicer to him, maybe he’ll give us a lead. Well, not too nice, he did have to let slip he was flying down to Arkansa midweek for a dinner with Alice Walton.

#82 conan on 01.30.18 at 8:52 pm

#73 Smoking Man on 01.30.18 at 8:30 pm

“Whos going to watch #SOTU”

I am watching it.

Conan’s SOTU drinking game rules

one sip:

Hillary, fake news, NAFTA, The Wall, North Korea,

one drink:

Regan, FBI, Russia

#83 Ed. on 01.30.18 at 8:55 pm

#65 Danny on 01.30.18 at 8:14 pm

Remember the song “I fought the law and the law one”…
**********

Nah, never heard of that won.

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.30.18 at 8:55 pm

@#77 common sense

“How long have you lived in Canada?

Are you just realising this?”
+++++++++

I was thinking the same thing myself.

#85 Ace Goodheart on 01.30.18 at 8:56 pm

RE: #54 Bitcoinnaire on 01.30.18 at 8:03 pm

“So who’s taking advantage of the crypto assets on sale this week?

Bitcoin proved the concept. 2018 is the year of the ERC20 tokens. Make your bets early.”

None of this stuff is worth a rat’s turd.

Just get a VISA card. You can buy anything you like, worldwide, and pay no interest for a month as long as you pay the balance in full each statement. And you even get points……

You have one thing right though, purchasing internet tokens is most certainly “betting”. Gambling for sure.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.30.18 at 8:58 pm

@#82 fishman
“he did have to let slip he was flying down to Arkansa midweek for a dinner with Alice Walton….’
++++++

When he gets back ask him if she still has that hideous , 3 legged mongel that pisses all over her private jet……
Trust me. It aint pretty.

#87 Ray Skunk on 01.30.18 at 9:03 pm

I don’t know what I struggle to comprehend more:

– That people are still wanting to buy in Milton

– That people are willing to pay $1m to buy in Milton

– That people are willing to pay $1m for an facsimile Mattamy shitpile

– That there is still room to cram in another bloody subdivision of hideous rowhouses and flimsy semis

Poor Milton. Whatever did it do to become the real life outcome of a kid who got bored playing SimCity2000 and decided to wreck their game before switching the computer off?

#88 The man from Nantucket on 01.30.18 at 9:12 pm

5%?

Rumour is that is the standard fee, but, with only 3,000 whatever agents actually closing an average of a deal per month, you have to figure that this percentage fee would be quite negotiable.

A friend of a friend is one of the amazingly few alpha agents in this locale…..by the table presented in this post, probably a top 3%er.

I have been told that, as long as his clients are using him to help broker a buy transaction, he will sell the house for “free”……or, just enough commission to offer buying agents such that they will bring their victims for a viewing.

Wondering how far others will cut to actually secure a live/serious client.

#89 dr. talc on 01.30.18 at 9:15 pm

i hate to pee in the typing pool
and disrupt an entertaining ‘two minutes hate’ here at the blog
but folks, its extremely rare that an evil realtor can talk someone into buying a house

#90 al on 01.30.18 at 9:18 pm

“In Calgary you can make $1,000 or more a week driving for Uber.”

Assuming 40hrs/week, only if you’re not actually aware of how much it actually costs to operate a vehicle, or are bad at math, or both. Speaking to Uber drivers, it seems it is the former for most of them. They’ll eventually wise up, it’s already slowly starting with the increase of rates in certain circumstances due to the Uber driver identified glaring lowness of the rates.

#91 William on 01.30.18 at 9:19 pm

The realtors are calling and knocking like never before. Ive never heard of realtors canvassing in January? This ship has sailed. Garth – please, please become the PC leader? Youre our only hope.

#92 Particle B on 01.30.18 at 9:19 pm

apparently, milton is except from r/e correction

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/mattamys-milton-116-new-houses-sold-out-one-day-re-market-bouncing-back-2166959/

#93 Hello Milton Lovers on 01.30.18 at 9:20 pm

Milton smells, who’d want to live near the Minicipal Halton Waste Dump! Enjoy your new townhome Vix, I am sure you’ll find it was a fine Investment, especially when the wind is blowing east from the dump!

Happy Housing Crash Everyone!!

#94 Midnights on 01.30.18 at 9:21 pm

Most Toronto condo fees higher than initial estimates, review finds

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/most-toronto-condo-fees-higher-than-initial-estimates-review-finds/article37785758/

#95 AACI Home-Dog on 01.30.18 at 9:28 pm

Ha…reminds me of that terrible song…”mothers, don’t let your cowboys grow up to be babies”…

#96 nobody knows on 01.30.18 at 9:28 pm

#22 Red Knave

So the consumer is paying dearly for the MLS monopoly then.

Regardless where the fees end up, 5% of a $2M house in 2018 is a lot of money, compared to 5% of a $500k house fifteen years ago.

Is the 2018 realtor / agency doing 4 times as much work as the 2003 realtor?
Probably less work, in the day of everything automated.

#97 Ian on 01.30.18 at 9:29 pm

‘ExxonMobile just announced a $50bln investment’

Tillerson didn’t even smile!! LMAO

#98 Phylis on 01.30.18 at 9:29 pm

104 Audis avail in ontario on lease busters. Lagging confirmation metric?

#99 will on 01.30.18 at 9:37 pm

HA-ha. SSCC. (shit show, can’t care)

#100 Iknow on 01.30.18 at 9:37 pm

The sale per realtor statistics is misleading. Many work formally or informally in a team and only the leader reports the transaction.

#101 Milton Is For Lovers! on 01.30.18 at 9:40 pm

Give me your tired, your investing poor,
Your ignorant masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming GTA corridor
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
I lift my beige townhomes up to them
beside the Walmart store!

I am Mattamy!

#102 Cloudy on 01.30.18 at 9:43 pm

#83 Ed. on 01.30.18 at 8:55 pm
#65 Danny on 01.30.18 at 8:14 pm

Remember the song “I fought the law and the law one”…
**********

Nah, never heard’ of that won

Beautifully played.

#103 Don Regan on 01.30.18 at 9:44 pm

A little update from my neck of the woods.
If true, listing R222232 3008 SW Marine Drive, Van
would qualify as the greatest percentage drop
I have seen to date.

Original asking price $4.8 Mil
now $2,988.000.

Listing R2231341 7909 Laburnum St, 3 months ago
asking, $3.5 since then 2 price reductions, now down to
$2,988,000,

7825 Laburnum St, org asking $3.8 mil, 16 months ago
finally sold before Xmas @ approx $3,070,000.

Plenty of houses for Sale, feedback I am hearing is
that people are waiting to purchase around the
Chinese New Year which is around mid Feb.

#104 Duke on 01.30.18 at 9:46 pm

#8 5 percent on 01.30.18 at 6:29 pm
Isn’t the commission on selling a house 5 percent here in Canada?

5% of 2M is a cool $100k, enough for a year.

I think it’s a Canadian thing, though, sky-high commissions.

In the Netherlands they charge you roughly 1.5% for selling a house, sometimes even lower.

When it’s time to sell my yvr house, I’ll look into DIY selling, as 5% seems overpriced for the work involved.

================

Wow! This guy is mighty stupid. This stupid head actually believes that an agent can take full 5% of commission. Just Wow!

There are two agents involved in any RE deals. Seller’s and buyer’s will split the 5%, and each agent will pay brokerage fee and some expenses such as advertisement. Usually the going rate of commission these days is 4%, so the net earning of selling a $2mil property would be around $30k.

#105 A Milton Love Poem on 01.30.18 at 9:50 pm

Oh Milton, how do I love thee?

Let me count the ways. . .

I love thee to the depth
and
breadth
and
height
of my new beige townhome!

#106 I thinks I know something on 01.30.18 at 9:53 pm

#28 Dave on 01.30.18 at 7:11 pm

Does it matter that this correction seems to be caused solely by government policy? Is this better or worse than them having done nothing?

————————————————–

Actually, this housing bubble was largely created and nurtured by government policy. CMHC, zero down, ZIRP, RRSP loans, lack of policy and controls on foreign money laundering and speculators, bankster protection, etc.

The government wants a housing bubble or rather high prices. They’re just afraid that they’ve gone a bit too far and are backing off a bit. Or, they want to look like they’re backing off. If prices really take a nose dive, they will take “corrective” action.

#107 An Ode To Milton on 01.30.18 at 9:58 pm

If I’d never met you Mattamy,
I wouldn’t feel this pain
Of losing my sweet equity;
I wouldn’t feel insane.

But if I’d never met you,
I wouldn’t know the pleasure
Of the Dumpsite’s warm glow
And memories to treasure,
From waiting outside in the cold to buy you.

Now moving on with life,
I realize my equity’s gone
No one wants my townhome
and, Vix who lives beside me
is my only friend.

#108 Tony on 01.30.18 at 10:01 pm

Re: #14 what about da Dow? on 01.30.18 at 6:44 pm

Likely month end profit taking and all the FOMC days last year all had stellar returns. My guess is this April “they’ll” finally allow a down month for the DOW.

#109 Tony on 01.30.18 at 10:07 pm

Re: #26 Milton Man on 01.30.18 at 7:08 pm

New home prices are also plunging in America from a base half that of new home prices in Canada.

#110 Letters To Milton on 01.30.18 at 10:11 pm

You Were My Everything

You were my everything Milton,
But now my equity is gone.

I don’t have the strength
I guess me and Vix,
must carry on.

Before, the skies always seemed sunny
But now, walking near the dump parkette;
doesn’t seem so funny!

I loved you so much, Milton
With Townhomes at $485,000 – you were all that I had;
Now my whole world with my neighbour, Vix
Is just so depressing and sad.

#111 Chico on 01.30.18 at 10:11 pm

#62 arfmoocat on 01.30.18 at 8:11 pm

Toronto Toronto Toronto

It’s like Toronto is the center of the universe on this blog and Vancouver a close second.

The rest of Canada doesn’t exist.

————————————–

We don’t. I’m a figment of your imagination.

#112 down_boy on 01.30.18 at 10:18 pm

#62 arfmoocat on 01.30.18 at 8:11 pm
Toronto Toronto Toronto

It’s like Toronto is the center of the universe on this blog and Vancouver a close second.

The rest of Canada doesn’t exist.

….

Personally, I’d rather not have our little gardens of eden advertised. Last thing I need is more lost tourists pulling up the drive saying “wow, we didn’t know this place existed!” Our front lawn is wild strawberries.

#113 Oh Baby on 01.30.18 at 10:18 pm

Plop plop, drop drop

Those prices

#happyhousingcrasheveryone

#114 Milton 4 Life on 01.30.18 at 10:27 pm

a must visit for folks moving to milton

http://www.halton.ca/cms/One.aspx?portalId=8310&pageId=151236

#115 aa3 on 01.30.18 at 10:30 pm

I believe realtors are a harbinger of what is coming to many professions.. vastly higher real incomes for people.

We have real wages at 1973 wage levels. But productivity has advanced greatly since then. Sooner or later incomes will catch up to productivity.

Realtors were in the right place at the right time. The state of Canada chose to pump money into the economy through levering up housing. Since realtors pay is based on a percentage of the sale price of houses, this levered up their incomes.

But the money pumped into the economy through this and other mechanisms doesn’t go away after it gets into the hands of realtors(or more importantly sellers).. it then becomes the means of exchange for commerce.

#116 Oscar on 01.30.18 at 10:34 pm

Blockchain in the news…Omers has announced the launch of a public company that will focus on Ethereum. This certainly legitimizes and brings mainstream the world of crypto investing.

https://discover.coinsquare.io/investing/omers-public-ethereum-company/

GeniusMoney, Bitcoinnaire….thoughts on length of this January’s correction?

By the way Genius Money, ATL is looking more attractive as the price drops due to the looming bounty distribution. I’m looking to buy shortly after the upcoming announcement.

#117 Smoking Man on 01.30.18 at 10:34 pm

Tectonic shift from Globalists power back to the people.
Libralism will go extinct.

GOD BLESS AMERICA.

BYE BYE T2

#118 For those about to flop... on 01.30.18 at 10:44 pm

#103 Don Regan on 01.30.18 at 9:44 pm
A little update from my neck of the woods.
If true, listing R222232 3008 SW Marine Drive, Van
would qualify as the greatest percentage drop
I have seen to date.

Original asking price $4.8 Mil
now $2,988.000.

////////////////////////////

Hey Don ,this house is now Pink Snow…

M43BC

Last sale – Mar-2017 – $2,928,000 Assessed – $3M

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3008-sw-marine-drive

January24th 2018
$2,988,000 Price Reduced
Dec 15, 2017 $3,688,000 Price Reduced
Nov 22, 2017 $3,988,000 Price Reduced
Nov 14, 2017 $4,800,000 Listed For Sale

#119 Iknow on 01.30.18 at 10:52 pm

I know many dedicated intelligent trust worthy realtors who themselves are not stars or top producers. But they work diligently in a team, only the leader report transactions. Yet they readily net over $10k a month on average.

#120 Robert B on 01.30.18 at 10:52 pm

Real estate agents also make commissions on Renting apartments, renting houses and renting commercial properties.

So lets give the agents a little more than selling houses.

#121 Fake News Again on 01.30.18 at 10:54 pm

GREAT speech by President Trump. Making America Great Again !!

Meanwhile in Canada Mr Selfie is Um….ah…..Um….ah….Um…ah…Um….ah…….as taxes go up. Govt worker hires go up. Regulation goes up. And so on and so on…..

#122 Vanreal on 01.30.18 at 10:57 pm

It’s always been the case that 1% of the agents make 99%of the sales. This is nothing new. Most agents make next to nothing. The reason is that people choose realtors who they know are successful. Also the commission isn’t 5% on a 2,000,000 house. Get real!

#123 Smartalox on 01.30.18 at 11:05 pm

Flopper:

Looks like more of the same: if you want to sell, better be prepared to take 20% below assessed!

This month, at least.

As for Lunar New Year, there’s a long tradition of debts coming due at the turn of the year in Asian communities. Maybe it’s not do much about people waiting to buy, but instead, a sudden surge of owners looking to SELL.

It’s the year of the dog. This blog has been waiting 12 years for this. Last year everyone felt cocky, next year they’ll get slaughtered like pigs.

#124 Steve on 01.30.18 at 11:09 pm

A haiku for young couples….

We had a baby
Renting is for the peasants
Move on up with debt

Never use an automatic for russian roulette.

#125 Ian on 01.30.18 at 11:17 pm

Cory Booker should be the first one sent to the new and improved Guantanamo.

He’s like the childhood school playground bully we all knew, but with even less of a brain, more of a thug, and a Democrat to boot. Really, really bad.

#126 OttawaMike on 01.31.18 at 12:19 am

As one successful broker once explained to me: “This industry attracts the get rich quick, lazy people who think they can put in 25-35 hour weeks and make it.”

He went on to explain how the ones selling 3-4 properties/yr are his best money makers since he takes the biggest cut from them plus they still pay a monthly office fee.
The top sellers keep the most commission percentage as they have reached the sales threshold where that occurs.

#127 Yorkville Renter on 01.31.18 at 12:23 am

I eat what I kill… and I’ve been very full lately!

The trick is saving those spoils for the inevitable “winter” when pickings are slim – especially when you can’t forecast it. I wonder if the realtors out there heed this warning? It’s been a long hunting season but season appears to be ending.

Also, # of cars on Leasebusters is an excellent “canary in the coal mine”… keep tabs on that to sense desperation (and possibly some deals!)

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.18 at 12:34 am

@ Apocalypse2018

geez buddy, yer slipping.
This weeks Economist “special edition”
The Next War

Listing how its very possible the “Great Nations” of China, Russia and the USA could stumble their way into a massive conflaguration……..

You heard it here first!
Prepare.

God I love scooping “Pocky2018”
Drives him crazy…….

#129 Hilarious on 01.31.18 at 12:52 am

In BC, people get a licence just to buy or sell their own home. Same probably happening in Ontario. Its not a career for people that sell less than 5. Side job. Like Uber.

C’mon Garth, tell it like it is.

#130 David Eby on 01.31.18 at 12:53 am

Sorry I am late to the chat tonight. Big dumpster fire over at ICBC. 1.3 billion deficit in the coming year.

Shrimp de Jong lied to us about a 200+ million surplus projected.

ICBC was the secret bank account for unlimited spending.

ICBC CEO has left for a central1 credit union gig just in time to help out with the B20 surge heading to BC credit unions…no exit interview…no questioning…no heads rolling…no problem.

Life is messy in BC.

And I apologize in advance for the coming smash to the housing market in a couple of weeks.

House lights out.

Other lights on…We will be flipping the red light camera switches on to catch speeders at intersections as a a new revenue source in this time of uncertainty.

Thank You.

#131 jane24 on 01.31.18 at 1:11 am

1.5% commission total in Britain as well to sell a house. How the broker and the agent split that between themselves is their business. The only item cheaper in Canada than here is petrol (gas for car). Everything else is sky high in Canada including taxes. Why folk are not rioting in the streets at the cost of services is beyond me. Either the most patient people in the world or not well enough traveled to understand how life is ripping them off. To live even cheaper we do two months a year in southern Italy and one winter month in Hanoi, Vietnam. The world is an exciting place.

I was a TO broker for a decade. I had full time agents and part time agents who often only got a license to sell their own homes cheap. The work involved is not worth 50 grand. Stupid system that needs to die off. Hopefully with sellers not getting the money they believe themselves to deserve, they will start to chip commissions down. Work the potential agents off against each other.

How a primary teacher is worth $90,000 in Canada is also crazy. I am a teacher and good one but the work is not worth that kind of money. Job is fairly easy allows me to run my home as well. It is just union power sucking off the local tax system in Canada. Everyone is too chicken to say no and I am not paying someone twice as much to have my children as I make in my more demanding job.

#132 People watching people on 01.31.18 at 1:12 am

According to TREB sales in 2017 were down almost 19% in 2017 vs 2016. City of Toronto land transfer taxes represented 7% of income for the city (over $600m) in 2016. Soooo the question is, where is the city going to make up the 1.3% ($130M) shortfall in income from land transfer taxes?

Of course it gets better, when you consider that Toronto had forecast 2017 land transfer tax revenue of over $700m, so the budgeting shortfall is probably closer to $250m.

I think budget season in Ontario is going to be interesting this year.

#133 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 1:13 am

It is time for Canadians to get their heads out of the sand and look around.

There are much better opportunities to invest globally.
It is official for quite a while that our economy is in a pathetic credit driven bubble (for at least 10-15 years) based on endless credit increases (300 billions yearly as of lately) which can not go forever.

Explains the mediocre TSX performance at times when oil and gold rallied. Stay away from it.
Europe and emerging markets, even US can provide much better returns.

House prices are just one of the worries, an indicator of insane monetary policies.
Of course they are ridiculous. GTA and Van City are poor working class crap-holes, with the suburbs being an extreme form of that. Overpriced on average 3-5 times, driven by idiotic hypes and full control of media through paid advertisement of interest groups.

Capital miss-allocation to the extremes, reduced competitiveness, mostly talks and idiotic tax policies by incompetent bullies.

Inflationary depression is the most likely result.
There is no easy fix as BOC’s Poloz said.
For 500 k a year this is what you get. People who can not find an easy fix. Well, how about finding a complex one that includes interest rate increases?

Watch out these registered pension plans.
Money is not yours until you withdraw it.

Great target for looting either through creative taxation, outright confiscation or regulations.

There is very interesting development on the bond markets as of lately, it is highly probable for the rates to increase rapidly in order to sustain the USD (that depreciates rapidly against the euro) resulting in carnage on the bond markets and a flight to (certain –
US, Europe, emerging markets) stocks and gold.

With the BOC unable and unwilling to increase rates we might see even faster depreciating loonie despite commodities rising. There is increasing differentiation in the prices of tar sands and WTI which is not good for the CAD.

So inflation of stuff that matters of 6-8 %, yearly with close to zero CAD rates and tanking stock market could be pretty much guaranteed for the next 3-5 years.

Let’s hope at least that the global warming is here to stay. We pay taxes for it.

#134 fishman on 01.31.18 at 1:45 am

Elevatorfartz, I’m a cat guy myself. Funny you should mention Alice had a hideous dog. Bob’s dog, which lately passed, got hit by the ugly stick hugely. Beautiful people : ugly dogs, Beautiful dogs : ugly people?

#135 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.31.18 at 2:48 am

I never watch the State of the Union Addresses any more. Actually the obsequious and insincere applause causes me to gag.

And furthermore if have to ever see the Sycophantic Vice President and Boot-licker in chief again I may have to hork. It would be an involuntary reaction.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PK_7spws64o

#136 David Allen on 01.31.18 at 3:21 am

Enough of Toronto real estate. Not many of us this side of the Rockies really know where it is. There are other things in life happening in this world that need your comments!

#137 Bobby on 01.31.18 at 5:41 am

Yes, the number of sales of homes given the plethora of realtors in the Toronto area is somewhat telling. But what should also be considered is the numbers of realtors that have flooded into the market in just the last few years.
It is not the allure of sales that motivated these people but the idea of quick and easy money. Many of these people have minimum skills and education. The realtor course is not in the least bit demanding. Imagine only selling 4 houses in a year and making $44,000. Many in BC toil all year at $22 an hour, considered a good wage, to make similar money. Yes, there are some very good and knowledgeable realtors but there are just as many poor ones who do their clients more of a disservice than anything. I’ve encountered many of them.
Once this frothy market comes back to earth and the realtor numbers return to normal I fully expect a shake out in the realtor industry. Is payment based on a percentage of the sale price a reasonable form of remuneration? I think not. Rather you will pay realtors for their time, they will be selling a service and you will be paying for their knowledge and experience. The experienced and capable members will survive and prosper. But that will spell the end for many of the fly by night realtors out there.
This reminds me a lot of the rush to be financial advisers at the closing end of the dotcom era. People were lining up the to do the Securities Course. Again, supposed fast and easy money. I recall the realtor who sold me my house one day announcing he was a good choice to manage my funds. That didn’t last long. Or better yet, my in law’s neighbours, a auto dealership parts man and she worked as a cleaner in the local hospital. They both did a brief stint as financial advisers. They didn’t last, in fact lost their home and had to move.
We’ve seen this all before.

#138 Jorge on 01.31.18 at 5:52 am

No housing crash in Montreal so far. 117 Longmeadow, bought by flipper in July ‘17 for $455k, listed at $739k, reduced to $699k and sold recently for $695k. Good houses are still commanding a high price and realtors are as arrogant as ever.

I’m also seeing fewer listings here so Garth’s theory of the freeze may be how things play out.

#139 Bhad Bhabie GeD on 01.31.18 at 6:18 am

showda door
to da
po’ realtor

boocoo fee
whatsa mattame

i can sell diy
bid on my sty

whereda fools at

#140 Rooster on 01.31.18 at 6:32 am

Synopsis of the State of the Union for those few who were able to watch curling. Trump stuck to the prepared speech, marred only by awkward hand gestures, self clapping, and constantly begging the Democrats to praise him.The theme was nationalism, above all else (uber alles).

The North Koreans have caused the tragic death of one foolhardy American, and untold hardship for many other N. Koreans. More than enough reasons for Trump to nuke-up. I half expected one of the dour-faced generals to hold up a “Stop Trump” sign, but they didn’t earn their fruit salads in man-to-man combat.

The pledge to bring the jobs back from low-wage countries was cheered by all who forgot about the inflationary effects. Powell doesn’t start till Monday, he’s still reading the Cole’s Notes. Trump unleashed his trident of looser regulations, lower drug prices, and giving the terminally ill a chance to be guinea pigs. A long list of undoing the wrongs of previous administrations.

The closing chants of “U.S.A.” could only have been made more jingoistic with a Tarantino short of Trump wrapped in the flag warming in front of a Korean BBQ, with a Chinese fireworks factory exploding behind him, while the Supreme Court Choir in Trump Tower robes belt out “Come sing me la! Come sing me Guantanamo Bay”.

vive le Canada!

#141 Trumpocalypse2018 on 01.31.18 at 7:17 am

RED ALERT!! RED ALERT!! RED ALERT!!

Trump facing implosion from innermost circle!!!!!

Did you see Melania’s face last night at the State of the Union?

Holy crap, she is more pissed with him than Nancy Pelosi!!

Didn’t come in with him, hasn’t spoken to him for days. It’s all about the Stormy Daniels revelations last week.

http://www.macleans.ca/society/melania-trumps-lonely-one-woman-resistance/

And Stormy was on Kimmel last night while the SOTU was the distraction. That’s the real story.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntl5Da1vblI

Trump hasn’t been laid in weeks, and will be desperate to relieve his Penced-up frustration, looking for an outlet for his twisted emotions.

Nukes!!!!

The only question: will it be before, after, or perhaps during, the Winter Olympics?

PREPARE.

RED ALERT!! RED ALERT!! RED ALERT!!

#142 Pillboy on 01.31.18 at 7:41 am

There are definitely a lot of part-time realtors around. If you google Redflagdeals and realtor license, there is a whole thread dedicated to becoming your own realtor. I personally know a couple of health care professionals who have a license, and will sell a home by appointment only (mainly for friends of the family). The point is, there are people who know that you need good data to make informed decisions, and it’s worth it to spend a bit of time to make a sound decision. I hope the courts rule in favour of open data for real estate listings, as House Sigma prices are still greyed out.

#143 LivinLarge on 01.31.18 at 7:42 am

Jane24: “Everything else is sky high in Canada including taxes.”…well, NO, not taxes. Yes, on the surface, our top marginal rate is over 53% and the top marginal in the UK is only 45% but that basically means nothing when dividends and capgains get no advantageous tax treatment in the UK. Including both dividends and capgains directly into gross revenue without any adjustment is simply a huge disincentive to invest.

Then there’s your VAT. Just a tad over our HST don’t ya think?

#144 maxx on 01.31.18 at 7:44 am

#7 Quebec is great on 01.30.18 at 6:26 pm

“IMO the agents that survive will be those who are best at giving sellers a reality check. Ie. ‘Yes its a lot lower tban you wanted to ask but if you need to sell within the next 6 years then this is the best time to do it.’

Time for agents to educate sellers about reality.”

Bingo. Realtards that don’t will eventually get the “why didn’t you tell me?” whine from stupid sellers who waited for their “price”.

#145 maxx on 01.31.18 at 7:48 am

#10 Guy in Calgary on 01.30.18 at 6:35 pm

“I wonder how many of those realtors are the type that get their license hoping to get a few transactions done during the craze, and are not actually full time professionals.”

Who cares? I want to know where these scumbags are going to be flocking next so that I can have them on my radar.

#146 I’m stupid on 01.31.18 at 7:49 am

#54 Bitcoinnaire

So who’s taking advantage of the crypto assets on sale this week?

Bitcoin proved the concept. 2018 is the year of the ERC20 tokens. Make your bets early.
—-

I have a sack of magic beans for sale… guaranteed to be the best investment in 2018.

#147 John Dough on 01.31.18 at 7:51 am

Given the recent news on Turquoise Hill*, I am not sure if this was an auto-correct typo in the title or not:

“Stock Cynical Earnings Per Share Growth For This Year: Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. (TRQ”)**

Is TRQ a buy here? Has it ever been? (formerly Ivanhoe Mines and now a subsidiary of Rio Tinto).
No Dividends ever? All of their annual statements even state it:
“Ivanhoe Mines does not expect to pay dividends for the foreseeable future.”
It seems they are just being prudent.

“Subsidiary
Active business income of foreign affiliates is not included in Canadian taxable income until remitted to Canada by dividend. Therefore, when significant foreign profits are expected, it may be prudent to carry out activities through a foreign subsidiary”. ***

Canada has 60% of the world’s mining companies, but it appears we are just Ivan’s hoes.

Strong sell on TRQ

*https://www.somo.nl/golden-promises-unpaid-bills/
**http://www.wallstreetinvestorplace.com/2018/01/stock-cynical-earnings-per-share-growth-for-this-year-turquoise-hill-resources-ltd-trq/
***https://www.pwc.com/ca/en/mining/publications/pwc-canadian-mining-taxation-2016-11-en.pdf

#148 LivinLarge on 01.31.18 at 7:57 am

Duke: “There are two agents involved in any RE deals.” while that is certainly the norm but I have long wondered why it is.

I’m no “Pro From Dover” and the last house I bought was 1997 but even then I decided where I wanted to live, found a place for sale and went directly to the selling agent. With no need to split commissions with another agent I was able to get a better price by having a clear incentive for the listing agent.

I may be wrong and it may even be meaningless but when I was married to an agent she kept telling me that all agents in the transaction are obligated to work in the best interest of the seller so, I figured, wwhy use two agents when your agent isn’t actually working for your best interest.

If one agent get’s both ends of that commission split the I sure see an agent coveting what is effectively an “exclusive listing” arrangement.

#149 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.18 at 8:11 am

@#89 dr talc.
“its extremely rare that an evil realtor can talk someone into buying a house”

++++++

I guess thats why they do so much talking at an open house?
Because they’re not necessary?
They should just unlock the door, step aside, shut up and get an exorbitant $500 fee? As opposed to a $5000, $10,000, $50,000 fee?

#150 under the radar on 01.31.18 at 8:13 am

10% of the agents make 90% of the money. Has always been that way. The good ones I work with make well north of 600k a year on a consistent basis. Of those few , some have been financially prudent and realized early on the music could stop at any time, while others simply charge and spend until the next closing.

#151 Howard on 01.31.18 at 8:21 am

#140 Rooster on 01.31.18 at 6:32 am

The closing chants of “U.S.A.” could only have been made more jingoistic with a Tarantino short of Trump wrapped in the flag warming in front of a Korean BBQ, with a Chinese fireworks factory exploding behind him, while the Supreme Court Choir in Trump Tower robes belt out “Come sing me la! Come sing me Guantanamo Bay”.

—————————————

I know!

Having pride in one’s country.

How pedestrian. How low-class. How 20th century.

Jingoism, tribalism, protectionism, nationalism, prejudice and intolerance are all branches of the same tree of fear. – Garth

#152 maxx on 01.31.18 at 8:23 am

#19 Loonie Doctor on 01.30.18 at 6:57 pm

“…….I was annoyed that the realtor made more money in a few hours than I did in about a month working as a specialist physician. I guess, I shouldn’t have been since it may be quite feast or famine.”

Yes, you should have. Just remind yourself of the endless stream of bs and pumping that has been the norm, especially since the GFC and you’ll feel quite justified.

What blows my hair back is the short memories most people have about having been surrounded by egos that took the re buying public for a major ride around the park, with a little help from their friends at the cb.

#153 Howard on 01.31.18 at 8:31 am

I have to admit, Trump is starting off 2018 very well. If he gets rid of chain migration, reduces the level of legal immigration, and finally deports the illegals, I believe he will be unstoppable in 2020. And if the Democrats block him in his efforts to reform immigration, he’ll probably win even bigger.

The Dems are in a very tough spot. If they agree to a crackdown on illegals they risk losing some of their critical support in hispanic communities. If they go all-in for amnesty and chain migration, they will lose support along the rest of the population. I wouldn’t want to be a Dem strategist these days.

Nor a xenophobe like you. Must be tough. – Garth

#154 Bitcoinnaire on 01.31.18 at 8:35 am

@116 Oscar

>GeniusMoney, Bitcoinnaire….thoughts on length of this January’s correction?

Just pull up the charts from the same time last year. It will correct to $6-8K bouncing between $10-11K and resume the frenzy 2-3rd week of February. But Ethereum and all of that network’s derivative tokens will be the stars of 2018, especially those that interface the smart contract functionality with real world data feeds. Do some reading into ChainLink. It’s my big gamble for the year, as well as Request Network.

Lots of institutional FUD these past few days as well with reference to Tether. The weak hands and the newbies will be tested. Most will not make it.

#155 akashic record on 01.31.18 at 8:45 am

Dems in US are finding their T2 as the “future” of their party?

The ‘future’ of the Democratic Party made his national debut in the party’s response to Trump’s State of the Union

http://www.businessinsider.com/joe-kennedy-will-deliver-the-democratic-response-to-trumps-state-of-the-union-2018-1

#156 Glengarry Girl on 01.31.18 at 8:48 am

This phase is just like watching the housing crisis unfold when I lived in Seattle from 2008 to 2010. When I arrived, I could not get a real estate agent to help me secure a house to rent. I got the speech “buy now or get priced out forever” The assumption then was if you qualify for a Jumbo mortgage you are a fool not to max out and make gains of 10% a year on your house. Many Engineers and other professionals quit working their traditional jobs, for years you could make so much money in real estate flipping, or just sit on an empty house. Within 18 months it was cooked, done, over. My reluctant landlord was weeping on my porch, literally. At first denial, then follows the terrible side of people as they loose money. Anger, divorce, job loss, shame. I don’t relishing in what the inevitable fallout will be. I have three very young adult children in and around GTA. I would only hope there isn’t a crash, more of a slow correction. If these real estate agents are smart and hustlers, they should turn their energy into property management. The next phase will be about those house owners holding on to what they have. BTW Seattle’s Bubble is back, it took a decade but if you could hold out, or buy on the dip, you made out ok. Property managers can charge 1 months rent for each 1 year contract. If they are good, renters and home owners will be begging them for their services. As the housing market corrects, more rental units hit the market, at first rents will go up as those home owners are now renters. Supply and demand will take some time to work out. There will be winners and losers. These times just shake out those that were speculative and didn’t know what they were doing and had no business buying homes at the values that greatly exceeded their job income. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds in Canada. Right now I’m sitting in my trailer watching the Blood Moon, living Simply and enjoying Life. I read economic news, it’s always been interesting to me. I guess what I look for is confirming evidence that living conservatively and debt free is a good plan. During the speculative bubble phases, I must admit, I sometimes have a feeling that I’m a schmuck. Playing by the rules, you don’t get Rich overnight. However, when you examine these phases and the data, it becomes very clear that slow and steady and safe is the plan for me.

#157 TurnerNation on 01.31.18 at 9:12 am

Today is Bell Let’s Talk day?

A day when Kanada’s psychopathic corporate elite oligopolists flog and berate their employees into extraction of even more money from their fellow sheeple.

God it’s fun living on a British owned tax farm.

#158 Victor V on 01.31.18 at 9:12 am

Economy rebounds in November, expands 0.4 per cent

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-rebounds-in-november-expands-04-per-cent/article37801536/

#159 Spectacle on 01.31.18 at 9:18 am

But is it really old news? T2 assaults a woman , on television, and gets away with it. Yup, our brave leader. Says he has scrutinized his people and nothing to be afraid of in the search for sexual ( violence?) against women! And nobody does anything.

Trudeau’s shoving incident: What actually happened, and what does it mean?​ – The Globe and Mail
https://www.theglobeandmail.com › news

#160 Howard on 01.31.18 at 9:19 am

#153 Howard on 01.31.18 at 8:31 am

I have to admit, Trump is starting off 2018 very well. If he gets rid of chain migration, reduces the level of legal immigration, and finally deports the illegals, I believe he will be unstoppable in 2020. And if the Democrats block him in his efforts to reform immigration, he’ll probably win even bigger.

The Dems are in a very tough spot. If they agree to a crackdown on illegals they risk losing some of their critical support in hispanic communities. If they go all-in for amnesty and chain migration, they will lose support along the rest of the population. I wouldn’t want to be a Dem strategist these days.

Nor a xenophobe like you. Must be tough. – Garth

—————————————-

Pretty sure legal immigrants waiting in line aren’t too happy seeing illegals waltzing in and given amnesty. Trump is on the right side of this debate even if his delivery is sloppy.

Xenophobia is bad but then so is globalism. Two sides of the same rotten coin. The latter breeds the former.

The DACA kids are not ‘waltzing in’. As for global integration, you dinos have already lost. – Garth

#161 Penny Henny on 01.31.18 at 9:33 am

#35 Nagraj on 01.30.18 at 7:21 pm

//////////////////

Hey you’re back!
Tell us a story.

#162 Howard on 01.31.18 at 9:36 am

#160 Howard on 01.31.18 at 9:19 am

The DACA kids are not ‘waltzing in’. As for global integration, you dinos have already lost. – Garth

——————————-

I don’t want join SCM in detention so I’ll leave it there.

#163 Smoking Man on 01.31.18 at 9:38 am

DELETED

#164 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 9:41 am

#131 jane24 on 01.31.18 at 1:11 am
1.5% commission total in Britain as well to sell a house. How the broker and the agent split that between themselves is their business. The only item cheaper in Canada than here is petrol (gas for car). Everything else is sky high in Canada including taxes. Why folk are not rioting in the streets at the cost of services is beyond me. Either the most patient people in the world or not well enough traveled to understand how life is ripping them off. To live even cheaper we do two months a year in southern Italy and one winter month in Hanoi, Vietnam. The world is an exciting place.

——————————-

It is called ‘tax premium to live in the best place on earth’. In simple words: ‘tax stupidity’.

It is expensive here but we like it.
Nobody/specially you will tell us how to live.
If you don’t like it, move out, don’t let the door hit you on your way out.
Suck it up and move on.
……………….

/sarcasm off.

#165 Tater on 01.31.18 at 9:46 am

#8 5 percent on 01.30.18 at 6:29 pm
Isn’t the commission on selling a house 5 percent here in Canada?

5% of 2M is a cool $100k, enough for a year.

I think it’s a Canadian thing, though, sky-high commissions.

In the Netherlands they charge you roughly 1.5% for selling a house, sometimes even lower.

When it’s time to sell my yvr house, I’ll look into DIY selling, as 5% seems overpriced for the work involved.
—————————————————————-
4.5% is more like it. So 90k Split between selling agent and buying agent. They then split with their brokerage (scale varies, call it 60/40) So each agent walks with 27k.

#166 Duke on 01.31.18 at 9:49 am

That chart is showing those numbers as ‘less than’, not ‘less than and equal’, so those 34.6% realtors must have ‘0’ sale.

That’s what I wrote, isn’t it? – Garth

#167 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 9:57 am

#159 Spectacle on 01.31.18 at 9:18 am
But is it really old news? T2 assaults a woman , on television, and gets away with it. Yup, our brave leader. Says he has scrutinized his people and nothing to be afraid of in the search for sexual ( violence?) against women! And nobody does anything.

Trudeau’s shoving incident: What actually happened, and what does it mean?​ – The Globe and Mail
https://www.theglobeandmail.com › news

——————–

Nothing special so see here.

The elitist aristocrat/master slapping intentionally the servant in his anger.

It happened to be a woman. He apologized.

Accept it an move on.

#168 Tater on 01.31.18 at 9:59 am

#66 Lorne on 01.30.18 at 8:14 pm
#8 5 percent
Isn’t the commission on selling a house 5 percent here in Canada?

5% of 2M is a cool $100k, enough for a year.

I think it’s a Canadian thing, though, sky-high commissions.

In the Netherlands they charge you roughly 1.5% for selling a house, sometimes even lower.

When it’s time to sell my yvr house, I’ll look into DIY selling, as 5% seems overpriced for the work involved.
……..
Realtors….what do they add to our economy?? I am actually able to figure out that a particular room is the bathroom! Do we have somebody help us to sell our car…no. Why do so many think they need a realtor to help them sell their house? Has never made sense to me and I have never used one (and yes I have owned houses!). Think about value before you feel you have to use a realtor to sell a home!
—————————————————————–
Realtor’s exist and can extract their commissions because they have a stranglehold on data. That’s about it.

#169 Smoking Man on 01.31.18 at 10:00 am

Masculinity builds skyscrapers, cities, countries, and family’s.

Feminism sets out to destroy all of the above while wearing cute socks.

73% approval for #SOTU

Libralism on it’s way to extinction.
There is a God.

#170 batt519 on 01.31.18 at 10:00 am

For the xenophobes,

Mulroney also said the U.S. would “lose” for declining to participate in the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement that includes Canada. And he told the senators that both the Canadian and American economies would benefit from more immigrants, whom he said bring dynamism and devotion.

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/01/30/nobody-in-his-right-mind-would-terminate-nafta-former-pm-mulroney-tells-congress.html

Buy $ilver.

#171 Smoking Man on 01.31.18 at 10:02 am

#163 Smoking Man on 01.31.18 at 9:38 am
DELETED

Oh Yeah, I forgot it’s against the law to talk about that. But it’s true and good for LGB community.

#172 Ian on 01.31.18 at 10:05 am

Under the ‘are you kidding me’ category…

The director of Center For Disease Control was trading tobacco stocks:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cdc-director-resigns-after-report-about-buying-tobacco-shares-2018-01-31?mod=bnbh

#173 Rooster on 01.31.18 at 10:08 am

#151 Howard on 01.31.18 at 8:21 am
#140 Rooster on 01.31.18 at 6:32 am
…. while the Supreme Court Choir in Trump Tower robes belt out “Come sing me la! Come sing me Guantanamo Bay”.
—————————————
I know!
Having pride in one’s country.
How pedestrian. How low-class. How 20th century.
————
Jingoism, tribalism, protectionism, nationalism, prejudice and intolerance are all branches of the same tree of fear. – Garth
*********

I like History Howard. Canadians were once renowned for our politeness to everyone, at home and abroad. Let’s pretend we are still in the 20th century.
I was initially going with “Vienna Boys’ Choir” but thought the reference too obscure for those who wouldn’t know an Austrian radio station from Rebel Radio.

America has many, many things to be proud of, just not right now.
Threatening to blow up N. Korea to protect the USA from the one cherry-bomb Kim might have up his sleeve, and save the N. Koreans from their cruel dictatorship just doesn’t seem quite right to me. The Mouse that Roared is a good film – see if you can follow the plot.

Donald Trump is a Machiavellian nut.
Even Ralph Klein, at his peak blood-alcohol level never called it “beautiful, clean, bitumen”.
The USA is in slow decline, it can go gracefully like Britain, France, Spain, and all the others before. Or it can rant and rave until the treasury is barer than bare, and the Visigoths come for a visit and stay. Howard, you’re too old for re-education camp, so please find a quieter hobby.

#174 dharma bum on 01.31.18 at 10:11 am

Perhaps the real estate agents can supplement their incomes by becoming Amway reps.
Kind of the same skill set.

#175 Fallout Boy on 01.31.18 at 10:26 am

Do the new DACA rules mean Canada will be stuck with a bunch of abandoned Doctor’s kids when they vacate to sunnier climes?
I foresee gangs of roving adolescents, high on IQ, squeegying their way thru Med School.
I think we need a wall too.

#176 Gravy Train on 01.31.18 at 10:32 am

#151 Howard on 01.31.18 at 8:21 am
“I know! Having pride in one’s country. How pedestrian. How low-class. How 20th century.”

Jingoism, tribalism, protectionism, nationalism, prejudice and intolerance are all branches of the same tree of fear. – Garth

Garth, you left out nativism. Just an oversight? :)

#177 technical analysis? on 01.31.18 at 10:36 am

hey… is that the US Dollar collapsing again today? more coming to a theater near you…

#178 No Listing on 01.31.18 at 10:37 am

The reason there are no listings for detached, and will continue to be a limited supply, is that those who own detached are very unlikely to be approved for a new mortgage on a property equal to or greater than what they already own.

Not many home owner’s are looking to downsize. Everyone wants something bigger.

If they were to sell, they would have to downsize in order to be able to qualify.

New buyer’s all want a house, not a condo, but that’s really all they can afford, so they need a foot into the housing market.

Detached prices have been driven by people selling for more and buying for more.

The breaks on real pricing will occur when people are no longer able to afford their payments and go into foreclosure, forced to sell, or need the money to finance a retirement.

Prices won’t go up, but chances are they won’t go down much either. Just flat until rates go up too high and force a portion of owners out of the market into rentals or into other less expensive markets.

#179 InvestorsFriend on 01.31.18 at 10:40 am

Nationalism is a base instinct

Jingoism, tribalism, protectionism, nationalism, prejudice and intolerance are all branches of the same tree of fear. – Garth

********************************
I agree and I would add racism to the list.

But we come by these views honestly. Humans evolved in tiny tribes that usually were very hostile to most other tribes. Humans are very prone to us versus them thinking. In a hunter /gatherer world resources were a zero sum game. More for them meant less for us.

In today’s world humans create rather than merely gather wealth. There is far less need to fear other tribes.

We are all humans first.

Someday it will be considered politically incorrect to be heartless about foreign people.

Racism was once openly accepted. Now many don’t accept it but it certainly lives on undergound. In an evolving world, the type of nationalism that views foreigners as less worthy will be driven underground and then gradually disappear.

#180 akashic record on 01.31.18 at 11:01 am

Jingoism, tribalism, protectionism, nationalism, prejudice and intolerance are all branches of the same tree of fear. – Garth

The DACA kids are not ‘waltzing in’. As for global integration, you dinos have already lost. – Garth

===

All humans have equal rights and freedoms regardless of the randomness of their skin colour, birthplace.

All humans grow up in their own families, tying them to the random community they born into. All these communities have their own traditions, roots.

We are all one – through our own communities.

The realization is that we are all one is a spiritual journey that each individual takes at his/her own pace and their communities together. It is a steady and slow process, driven by increasing consciousness and recognizing others as part of us.

It is important to legislate equality of each member of the society, regardless the randomness of skin colour and birthplace.

It is not possible to legislate increased respect, consciousness towards others and eventually all human beings, animals, plants and the planet.

The knowing that we are all one is a conscious state of mind within an individual.

We are all one is not for creating a globalized economy.

We are all one is not for “global integration” for the purpose of creating global governments, global flow of capital, people for the purpose of gaining concentrated economic power and wealth, what we see.

We are all one is not for hijacking and exploiting the consciousness moving towards it to gain political power, create voter base along a party line, mixing populations by ideological, political, economic ideas, slogans of the day or ambitious politicians trying to create personal legacy.

We are all one is not for creating wars for economic gains then moving around the huge number of victims of the war by the same forces who created their suffering at the first place.

We are all one will create integration, global integration, not in secret trade deals, but by voluntary recognition of the benefit of it.

#181 Jorge on 01.31.18 at 11:09 am

> #149 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.18 at 8:11 am
> I guess thats why they do so much talking at an open house?
Because they’re not necessary?

————

Sure seems that way to me. The realtors around here mostly have an attitude of IDGAF because there are plenty ready to feed at the troughs.

#182 conan on 01.31.18 at 11:14 am

#159 Spectacle on 01.31.18 at 9:18 am

T2 accidently bumped into her, the video evidence is clear, in that regard. The NDP certainly took a serious/permanent nose dive, in popularity, after the incident.

The big news is what the new leader of the Ontario Conservatives is going to do with the “rot.”

Hopefully, he does everyone a favor and exposes massive voter/membership irregularities. Maybe there is a trail…… leading to the big dogs.

It will be interesting if Doug Ford is the only serious leadership candidate. Doubly so, if he is financed by Reformacon Nation. His mission, shut down the investigation, and preserve Harper Empire Inc.

#183 joblo on 01.31.18 at 11:16 am

A YVR vlogger’s dates recently complained he never took them anywhere “Expensive”.

So in his video he displays pump prices at a local gas station.
$1.69 per litre premium. Fed, Prov, and Carbon taxex yeah!
So next date Esso?

#184 Commercial Realtor on 01.31.18 at 11:24 am

Garth – I work for a major commercial realtor… we have about a hundred agent and the average income is around $300K (take home, after splits with the company). You know how many deals TREB thinks we’ve done? ZERO. Because we don’t use MLS. There are thousands of commercial agents and landlords in the city who are forced to have real estate licenses but don’t use MLS. David’s stats are completely misleading…

Stats are for realtors selling houses, not commercial properties. As stated. – Garth

#185 Gravy Train on 01.31.18 at 11:29 am

#160 Howard on 01.31.18 at 9:19 am
“… Xenophobia is bad but then so is globalism. Two sides of the same rotten coin. The latter breeds the former.”

… As for global integration, you dinos have already lost. – Garth

Garth, I can’t understand why Howard and Smokey participate on this blog!

Hey, Smokey. You do realize that globalism is usually— esp. at Davos—about global capitalism, don’t you? :)

#186 Tbone on 01.31.18 at 11:36 am

You don’t need to be an agent to sell your own home.
Hasn’t anyone ever heard of comfree ?
I paid them less than 1000.00 to get listed on realtor.ca and sold off my
Last rental property myself .
Quite easy in a sellers market . Maybe not as easy now , but you do get
The listing on realtor.ca which is what’s important .
Mongohouse will give you comparables to establish your sell and ask price . You will save thousands .

#187 Fake News Again on 01.31.18 at 11:51 am

#151 Howard on 01.31.18 at 8:21 am
#140 Rooster on 01.31.18 at 6:32 am

The closing chants of “U.S.A.” could only have been made more jingoistic with a Tarantino short of Trump wrapped in the flag warming in front of a Korean BBQ, with a Chinese fireworks factory exploding behind him, while the Supreme Court Choir in Trump Tower robes belt out “Come sing me la! Come sing me Guantanamo Bay”.

—————————————

I know!

Having pride in one’s country.

How pedestrian. How low-class. How 20th century.

Jingoism, tribalism, protectionism, nationalism, prejudice and intolerance are all branches of the same tree of fear. – Garth

________

Anti-Trump People <——-Trump Derangement Syndrome

It’s not Trump, just what he oozes out in people. – Garth

#188 PastThePeak on 01.31.18 at 11:52 am

#154 Bitcoinnaire on 01.31.18 at 8:35 am

If you have made yourself a millionaire by getting in early and getting out of Bitcoin at the right time, then great for you. By millionaire , I do mean you have extracted millions of “fiat currency” (call it CAD$ since that is where we are) and this is either in your bank account, or somewhere safe. That is great timing.

If you claim to be a millionaire but most/all of that remains in the cryptocurrency market, then good luck on ya!

Cryptos have risen in value almost entirely due to speculation (I suppose a small amount could be due to increased demand from the illegal drug and arms industries wanting complete anonymity of transaction). This speculation has coincided with unprecedented increase in the money supply, which has inflated many assets beyond cryptos. Once that turns negative (which it will unless the central bankers just give up), then the fun times are over.

And please don’t lecture me on the “merits” of the technology, which I understand, but have no relation to why a supposed currency would rise 1000x in value over a few years.

#189 Andre on 01.31.18 at 12:01 pm

#160 Howard

Arguments used to discuss immigration reform in US generally and intentionally focus on the negative effects of the influx/movement of people. Positive effects are generally overlooked; The US economy is built on the braindrain policy in place since WW2. The US has positioned itself as the place to be for all the smartest people in the World. Moving in the other direction could accelerate even more a possible swift of power back East.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/technology/personaltech/why-silicon-valley-wouldnt-work-without-immigrants.html

#190 Howard on 01.31.18 at 12:13 pm

#168 conan on 01.31.18 at 11:14 am

It will be interesting if Doug Ford is the only serious leadership candidate. Doubly so, if he is financed by Reformacon Nation. His mission, shut down the investigation, and preserve Harper Empire Inc.

—————————–

The ravings of a very confused person.

Please read :

– Harper is a FEDERAL Conservative
– Doug Ford is running for the PROVINCIAL Conservatives
– Rob Ford was a MUNICIPAL politician in the City of Toronto
– Reform was a FEDERAL populist party that dissolved one year after Rob Ford was first elected as a city councillor
– Doug Ford is independently wealthy; he requires nobody to “finance” him, and the PC party is mostly funded by small donors
– Your fantasy investigation can begin after McGuinty’s chief of staff, now found guilty, is sentenced and put behind bars

#191 Victor V on 01.31.18 at 12:23 pm

Credit unions may be about to face tighter mortgage rules in Quebec, while other provinces split

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/update-1-quebec-seen-tightening-mortgage-lending-other-provinces-split

Montreal-based Mouvement Desjardins, the largest cooperative financial group in Canada, has already been applying OSFI’s new mortgage rules “because we believe it is an effective way to protect consumers against interest rates variations,” company spokeswoman Valerie Lamarre said by email. “It is still too early to tell if it will have any impact on our mortgage business.”

By contrast, the regulator in British Columbia said in an email the province is not considering changes to its underwriting guidelines, and Ontario is in a wait-and-see mode, giving credit unions there more room to manoeuvre with its borrowing terms.

Paul Taylor, president of Mortgage Professionals Canada, said he expects Quebec to regulate in line with federal guidelines to demonstrate its influential credit unions are as prudent as the big banks, while B.C. will balk at the new rules and the other provinces will wait and see.

#192 Ogopogo on 01.31.18 at 12:26 pm

#26 Milton Man on 01.30.18 at 7:08 pm
#3 Vix

Don’t believe this Moron. I was there at the opening and there was no line up. People came and went.

Obviously, he’s a struggling, lieing conman, better known as a realtor.

I thought as much, though he could also be a troll. But realtor sounds just as low on the totem pole. The fact that he was #3 shows just how itching he was to troll Garth and the dawgs.

Expect to see more realtor rage as market tanks. A lot of triggered realtors on this thread already. And this is just the beginning. *munches on popcorn*

#193 45north on 01.31.18 at 12:45 pm

People watching people:
According to TREB sales in 2017 were down almost 19% in 2017 vs 2016. City of Toronto land transfer taxes represented 7% of income for the city (over $600m) in 2016. So the question is, where is the city going to make up the 1.3% ($130M) shortfall in income from land transfer taxes?
It gets better, when you consider that Toronto had forecast 2017 land transfer tax revenue of over $700m, so the budgeting shortfall is probably closer to $250m.

I think budget season in Ontario is going to be interesting this year.

Mr Deep is an insider to the Vancouver real estate market. Looking at higher interest rates and B20, he asks “Does this mean the market is about to stop?” This a rhetorical question, he means that market is about to stop. Dominoes is a poster on this blog. His sources say that delinquencies on property taxes in Toronto were way up last year.

Looking at the City of Toronto, shortfalls on the land transfer tax and delinquencies on property taxes are going to be up.

Looking at the Province of Ontario, as it rolls over its debt, it’s going to be paying more as interest rates rise.

budget season in Ontario is going to be interesting this year.

#194 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 12:50 pm

#179 InvestorsFriend on 01.31.18 at 10:40 am
Nationalism is a base instinct

Jingoism, tribalism, protectionism, nationalism, prejudice and intolerance are all branches of the same tree of fear. – Garth

********************************
I agree and I would add racism to the list.

But we come by these views honestly. Humans evolved in tiny tribes that usually were very hostile to most other tribes. Humans are very prone to us versus them thinking. In a hunter /gatherer world resources were a zero sum game. More for them meant less for us.

In today’s world humans create rather than merely gather wealth. There is far less need to fear other tribes.

We are all humans first.

Someday it will be considered politically incorrect to be heartless about foreign people.

Racism was once openly accepted. Now many don’t accept it but it certainly lives on underground. In an evolving world, the type of nationalism that views foreigners as less worthy will be driven underground and then gradually disappear.

——————————–

With the progress of automation and AI that will change.

Labour won’t be needed. Expect the new Luddites like in the good old England.

They also had homes. But with no productive land, no capital and no work what are the suburbs for example of GTA going to look like 20 years from now?

Gang and drug wars?

What are people going to do in their cornflakes homes and glass condoes with no work?

#195 45north on 01.31.18 at 12:57 pm

Glengarry Girl: This phase is just like watching the housing crisis unfold when I lived in Seattle from 2008 to 2010.

Within 18 months it was cooked, done, over. My reluctant landlord was weeping on my porch, literally.

I wish the best for your three children.

Glengarry – as in Glengarry County east of Ottawa, on the way to Montreal?

#196 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 12:58 pm

#190 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 12:50 pm

What are people going to do in their cornflakes homes and glass condoes with no work?

—————————————-

Buy 1 Euro (ONE EURO) home in sunny Italy while you can.

Italian town Ollolai sells $1 homes to lure new residents

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ollolai-italy-one-euro-homes/index.html

(CNN) — Ever dreamed of owning a home in a pretty Italian village? The news you’ve been waiting for has finally arrived.
You can now buy one for just over a dollar.
Ollolai, a destination in the mountain region of Barbagia on the Mediterranean island of Sardinia, is selling hundreds of abandoned homes for just €1 ($1.2).

—————————

it is 1 MILLION times cheaper than GTA or Vancouver, we are talking about stone and brick homes, superb weather and you can actually grow something on the land there.

That is a lottery ticket, not the shack in the great white north.

Property taxes are nothing there.
You most likely will get subsidies if you grow anything on that land.

#197 TSX on 01.31.18 at 1:01 pm

Broke support !

Yes !!!!

#198 IHCTD9 on 01.31.18 at 1:04 pm

Just a friendly reminder. If you don’t like what your government(s) are up to, just stop paying them a penny more than you absolutely have to.

If you are a highly taxed disgruntled Canadian taxpayer, you are getting sharper claws every day.

Trudeau and Co look to be losing the NAFTA negotiations, new taxes being levied at every turn, Conservatives toast in Ontario again, ultra-high minimum wages in force, more big business leaving every week, stupid high energy costs with taxes piled on top a mile high, business investment bailing out of the country, big energy projects scuttled, pensions and healthcare costs for Boomers starting to get real, Trump is giving us an economic rag-dolling, interest rates rising, debt rising, deficit rising.

We are heading into an era where we will be thoroughly, and utterly uncompetitive even against Western economies – forget about third world and emerging ones.

All of these things are going to just incinerate Government revenues. If Liberals or NDP are still running the show, you know increased taxes will be the answer to just about every issue that comes up.

Taxes IMHO, have just about hit the max. Not too much more can be carved without folks really starting to avoid/offset them. I do it every day, and enjoy it like a hobby.

Soon, new taxes and fees will not net increased revenues, so even just a little reduction from pissed off Canadians is going to hurt disproportionately in the near future. It’s time to start making them sweat.

#199 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 1:10 pm

A bet that nobody will go to jail for the bread price fixing.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/newsalert-7-companies-committed-indictable-172539217.html

That’s what you get with oligopolies. Competition?
Bhahahahaa.

That is thousands of dollars per household in Canada.

How about telecom? How about banking? How about insurance?

Government protected oligopolies everywhere.

Of course there is no statement or interest on the topic by our honorable finance minister, he is so busy screwing doctors, plumbers and small businesses with his tax and pension schemes.

#200 Bitcoinnaire on 01.31.18 at 1:11 pm

@146 I’m stupid

>I have a sack of magic beans for sale… guaranteed to be the best investment in 2018.

You’re very late to this game:

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bean-cash/

Too bad it’s not worth anything.

@188 PastThePeak

>And please don’t lecture me on the “merits” of the technology, which I understand, but have no relation to why a supposed currency would rise 1000x in value over a few years.

Oh I see, you must be an “investor” in all those supposed securities valued at 20 times P/E… Best of luck to you in your bloated, forgotten, decaying and often fraudulent boomer-period legacy assets. Maybe one day, you will find the greater fool willing to buy them from you, if there’s still an active market for them.

Blockchain, decentralized exchanges, smart contracts, oracles, etc. are the financial infrastructure of tomorrow.

#201 Ace Goodheart on 01.31.18 at 1:11 pm

RE: #154 Bitcoinnaire on 01.31.18 at 8:35 am

@116 Oscar

>GeniusMoney, Bitcoinnaire….thoughts on length of this January’s correction?

“Just pull up the charts from the same time last year. It will correct to $6-8K bouncing between $10-11K and resume the frenzy 2-3rd week of February. But Ethereum and all of that network’s derivative tokens will be the stars of 2018, especially those that interface the smart contract functionality with real world data feeds. Do some reading into ChainLink. It’s my big gamble for the year, as well as Request Network.”

Is anyone actually using these “tokens” to buy anything? In the end that is the only usefulness they they could have. As a store of value, they make no sense. Far too volatile. All the blocks and the chains produce exactly nothing of any value to anyone.

Basically the worth of a crypto coin is the value of having your “money” held in security by a shady, unregulated exchange located in a tax haven or a third world country with little regulation or government oversight, as opposed to holding currency that is issued by a first world government. I guess the idea is first world governments borrow too much, and so it is better to have your money in one of these “exchanges”.

For those of us who do not hold currency as a unit of value (ie, like me) but rather use it to buy stuff (I hold my units of value in bonds, stocks and ETFs, not in cash), a crypto coin is useless.

The coins make sense only to gamblers, looking for the next run up, who get in on the ground floor and sell before the pyramid collapses.

If that is your game, more power to you. It’s a risky game and like playing marbles in the school yard, but with less strategy and more unknowns, but I guess it is a game.

#202 InvestorsFriend on 01.31.18 at 1:17 pm

Let Them Live on Dividends

Stan Brooks at 190 said:

With the progress of automation and AI that will change.

Labour won’t be needed. Expect the new Luddites like in the good old England.

They also had homes. But with no productive land, no capital and no work what are the suburbs for example of GTA going to look like 20 years from now?

Gang and drug wars?

What are people going to do in their cornflakes homes and glass condoes with no work?

*********************************
You make good points. The smart ones will be living on investments. If capital is to produce everything then the wise course of action is to own capital.

There will also be much income redistribution. If goods and services are produced without much human labour it becomes essential for government to distribute the spoils in some fair way.

Government is never going to get smaller nor are taxes as a percent of GDP. It’s simple progress. It’s inevitable.

#203 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.31.18 at 1:17 pm

Langley homes and Acreages taking big hits in the asking prices.

Many acreages are languishing on the market for a year or so no matter what spin the fake stats show about days on market. The DOM re starts every time they re list or change a price.

Realtors and their association are really just a bunch of street thugs. The average Canadian is a sucker.

The average buyer is too lazy to learn about the system because they only buy a home every 5 or 10 years if that.

They are taken advantage of just like a entering a used car dealership.

https://www.myrealtycheck.ca/

#204 IHCTD9 on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm

#194 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 12:50 pm

With the progress of automation and AI that will change.

Labour won’t be needed. Expect the new Luddites like in the good old England.

They also had homes. But with no productive land, no capital and no work what are the suburbs for example of GTA going to look like 20 years from now?

Gang and drug wars?

What are people going to do in their cornflakes homes and glass condoes with no work?
______

The Ontario Libs know what they’ve done to the Provincial economy.

That’s why they are piloting a Universal Basic Income project to keep the gang warfare down when everyone not working for the government is unemployed.

Not sure who will be paying for the Public Servants, but that’s their problem.

#205 millmech on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm

Andrew Weaver is holding a press conference this afternoon calling(telling) the NDP to ban foreign buyers. I wonder if the NDP will proceed with this or if they do not will Weaver take them down, the Green Party seem pretty adamant about pushing this through.

Leadership from behind. I expected more of the Greens. – Garth

#206 A J on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm

#169 Smoking Man

Dream on. I have way more years left in me than you do. A lot more years left in me than a lot of the aging Conservatives in this country. I’m a Liberal, as well as everyone I know. We’ll be here after you’re gone. And we’ll still be proud Liberals through and through. Sorry to break your stone-cold heart.

#207 Gravy Train on 01.31.18 at 1:26 pm

#173 Rooster on 01.31.18 at 10:08 am
“Donald Trump is a Machiavellian nut….”

Niccolò Machiavelli was unscrupulous, but he wasn’t an idiot! :)

#208 Smoking Man on 01.31.18 at 1:35 pm

#206 A J on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm
#169 Smoking Man

Dream on. I have way more years left in me than you do. A lot more years left in me than a lot of the aging Conservatives in this country. I’m a Liberal, as well as everyone I know. We’ll be here after you’re gone. And we’ll still be proud Liberals through and through. Sorry to break your stone-cold heart.
…..

Good, you one day might get a great idea. Capitize on it. Make money. Switch teams to protect whats rightfully yours.

Carry the touch. If not you someone else.

#209 erikTHEwonderful on 01.31.18 at 1:40 pm

I sold my home comfree, it was a decent home. On the smaller side, roughly 1200 sq ft, but nicely renovated and ‘modernized’, 25 year old home in a rural town outside of Hamilton.

Showed the home about 18 different times, and would have sold It 18 times, if it was bigger with a more functioning basement.. as everyone loved it, or at least I think they did… Had 4 offers, all were ‘pending’ the sale of their home, eventually took 1 and ran with it until they finalized the sale of their home.

Had the pleasure of having real estate agents book appointments for their clients, as they had seen my home on MLS, ‘ house shopping’.. and their agent wasn’t even aware of my home as COMFREE homes don’t show up on their internal systems. Which is a topic on its own?

Quite sad? As these individuals could have potentially saved themselves a significant amount of money in savings, rather then using the real estate agent to call me, and walk around my house while I do their job.

I met some decent realtors, and some pretty shady shysters.. I admired the ones that started the conversation with .. ‘ Are you cooperating with agents, and how much are you willing to pay %?”

Its a time for change.. !

#210 TSX-cess on 01.31.18 at 1:41 pm

#197 TSX on 01.31.18 at 1:01 pm
Broke support !
Yes !!!!
*************
Well it’s only ….300 points above the Summer of ’14.
No more free money at the Poloz Bank.
I hope Powell is ready to jump out of the gate on Monday and spur this bull on.

Sign o’ the times:

“I go to put my arm around you
And you give me a look like I’m way out of bounds
I’m goin down, down, down, down”

Bruce!

#211 Howard on 01.31.18 at 1:41 pm

#169 Smoking Man on 01.31.18 at 10:00 am

Masculinity builds skyscrapers, cities, countries, and family’s.

Feminism sets out to destroy all of the above while wearing cute socks.

73% approval for #SOTU

Libralism on it’s way to extinction.
There is a God.

———————————-

You mean progressivism.

Liberalism, in the classical sense, is a good thing.

It’s progressivism and its more militant wing, cultural marxism, that is anathema to any free society. It is now overreaching to such an extent that a blowback is all but certain.

#212 I'm A Believer on 01.31.18 at 1:45 pm

Bye Bye Realtor Profession. The function of transferring data from one source (listings) to another source (buyers) will be replaced by apps. People will shop for homes online and buy them online. Realtor in-between value? Zero. Think this won’t happen? Well you can do banking in your hand now. It’s coming.

#213 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.31.18 at 1:49 pm

#204 IHCTD9 on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm
#194 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 12:50 pm

With the progress of automation and AI that will change.

What are people going to do in their cornflakes homes and glass condoes with no work?
================================

Chain massages. If you have say at least 8 people each massaging the next person you can complete a circle thus everyone is employed and everyone pays the person behind them for the massage.!

#214 Hi Im God! on 01.31.18 at 1:51 pm

#169 Smoking Man on 01.31.18 at 10:00 am
Masculinity builds skyscrapers, cities, countries, and family’s.
Feminism sets out to destroy all of the above while wearing cute socks.
73% approval for #SOTU
Libralism on it’s way to extinction.
There is a God.
……………………………………………………………………
Ha now that is a joke Smoking Man you cut that one straight out from the whack job Alex Jones.
Jesus why are you such an anti feminist Smoking Man, did a little girl kick dirt in your eyes when you were 10 years old? Oh nope, I forgot once you landed in Cali you handed your wify your gonads.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/30/16949748/trump-approval-state

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/30/state-union-analysis-trumps-speech-remarkable-what-he-didnt-say/1080417001/

#215 IHCTD9 on 01.31.18 at 1:52 pm

#205 millmech on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm
Andrew Weaver is holding a press conference this afternoon calling(telling) the NDP to ban foreign buyers. I wonder if the NDP will proceed with this or if they do not will Weaver take them down, the Green Party seem pretty adamant about pushing this through.

Leadership from behind. I expected more of the Greens. – Garth
_________________________

So then: Greens + NDP = Trump?

Interesting…

#216 SimplyPut7 on 01.31.18 at 2:00 pm

#62 arfmoocat on 01.30.18 at 8:11 pm

You want to see more stories like this?

Saskatoon house prices slip, overbuilding continues as new condos and townhouses sit empty

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/saskatoon-house-prices-slip-overbuilding-continues-as-new-condos-and-townhouses-sit-empty-1.4510851

The comment section in the article sounds just like people from Toronto.

#217 InvestorsFriend on 01.31.18 at 2:01 pm

Corporations Do Not Commit Crimes, People Do

#199 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 1:10 pm said:
“A bet that nobody will go to jail for the bread price fixing.”

The Competition Bureau said:

“The Competition Bureau believes wholesalers Canada Bread Company Ltd. and George Weston Ltd., as well as grocers Loblaw Companies Ltd., Walmart Canada Corp., Sobeys Inc., Metro Inc. and Giant Tiger Stores Ltd. committed indictable offences under the Competition Act, according to the previously sealed information to obtain documents.”

**********************************
The notion that corporations can commit crimes or can “have knowledge” is a convenient legal fiction.

In this case it may prevent guilty people from being charged as they should be.

In many cases corporations are fined for the illegal actions of executives. Share owners effectively pay the fines. When serious crimes are committed it should be the guilty people that are charged.

#218 InvestorsFriend on 01.31.18 at 2:03 pm

Charge the Guilty people? I did not mean to pre-judge guilt. But charge people, not inanimate corporations.

#219 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.31.18 at 2:09 pm

#205 millmech on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm
Andrew Weaver is holding a press conference this afternoon calling(telling) the NDP to ban foreign buyers. I wonder if the NDP will proceed with this or if they do not will Weaver take them down, the Green Party seem pretty adamant about pushing this through.

Leadership from behind. I expected more of the Greens. – Garth
================================

Contrary to our esteemed Blog owner I agree with Weaver. Although the same could be achieved with heavy taxation on re-sale profits.

It is not unreasonable to insist that to own property in BC you need to live here.

What many people do not understand is that BC is just a mere suburb of Shanghai.

Shanghai is 25 million people. China is 1.4 billion. They make approximately the same amount of homes in China in one year as all of Canada’s homes.

You cannot underestimate the incredible power of numbers in a society that follows trends religiously. When a Billionaire leader invests somewhere there is a huge following behind him.

If you just took the profit out of the equation we still could find a large amount of investment because of the intangible benefit of our Stable Government and Economy that foreign investors pay nothing extra for.

Further still as one who spent 2 and a half years in China and 5 in Hong Kong. I have come to understand that there will be an army of lawyers busy working the different ways to get around any new laws. No law will stop the real big money from getting here and disrupting our home market.

In agreement with Garth we locals were caught up in the frenzy but the spark was the 10% extra demand from overseas to tip the market into bubble territory.

That is how I see it living here in the Lower Mainland.

#220 Newcomer on 01.31.18 at 2:13 pm

#164 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 9:41 am
…..
Xenophobia is bad but then so is globalism. Two sides of the same rotten coin. The latter breeds the former.
——
Only if your moral compass is broken. Saying that you wouldn’t be so xenophobic if it weren’t for all the foreigners only makes sense to people who don’t like foreigners. It’s not complicated. Love your neighbor. We’re all neighbors.

#221 LOL on 01.31.18 at 2:14 pm

2020 is looking to be a good year.

#222 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 2:14 pm

#204 IHCTD9 on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm
#202 InvestorsFriend on 01.31.18 at 1:17 pm

—————————————————-
Thanks for the great responses and understanding.
Not many people realize the future that waits them in a jobless world.

The question here is what will motivate the owners of ‘Real estate’, land, resources, productive capital to produce for the government and the public when they do not constitute customers for them and they don’t need salaried employees.

So who will pay the debt, who will pay the taxes to support public sector workers and government, including health, municipal infrastructure, minimum guaranteed income if most of the productive assets and capital is owned by international corporation who can leave at any point in time just to avoid paying taxes here?

Hell, we don’t even own the land here, try to cut your own tree without permissions or park your car on the grass in front of your home.

The life here is far from self sustainable, we will see major transformations down the road and most likely will end up with minimum income/handouts that is highly insufficient to provide decent life.

Well, you will get free entertainment/TV/Reality shows and GMO food, maybe free health care of questionable quality.

But in overall quality of life big city dwellers might find their standards far inferior to the poor villagers in not-so-developer currently countries.

So consider that home for 1 euro in Italy.

#223 PastThePeak on 01.31.18 at 2:21 pm

@ #200 Bitcoinnaire on 01.31.18 at 1:11 pm

Oh I see, you must be an “investor” in all those supposed securities valued at 20 times P/E… Best of luck to you in your bloated, forgotten, decaying and often fraudulent boomer-period legacy assets. Maybe one day, you will find the greater fool willing to buy them from you, if there’s still an active market for them.

Blockchain, decentralized exchanges, smart contracts, oracles, etc. are the financial infrastructure of tomorrow.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

So I take it you have NOT actually made any “real money” yet.

I have spoken to many “crypto bulls”, and the all say the same as your last paragraph – yet cannot answer the simple question of why these crypto currencies have such high values. They just keep repeating blockchain, future, and network effects (why is Facebook and Google so valuable they say – why cryptos are the same).

Anyways, yes, the majority of my investments are in old school ideas like equities (dividend and grow), bonds, REITs. All of these instruments are based on companies that generate profit by “doing something”, and provide a return to the holder. I also have an increasing amount going into some safe places to buy when this market corrects (with such a high PE).

Funny about Bitcoin – some people talk about it being like “digital gold” as a reserve for safety, yet on a day that the US markets went down about 1.5%, Bitcoin dropped about 10%. Perhaps not so safe.

I shall keep a copy of your little diatribe for the future…

#224 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 2:23 pm

DELETED

#225 John Dough on 01.31.18 at 2:26 pm

The Italian village sale reminded me of a smart man who emigrated here from Italy after the war and did very well. I asked why he picked Canada and he said because here you can scrape the ground with your toe and find wealth. The other thing he said that stuck was that there is always a market for quality. We just have to rebuild the refineries and factories (and breweries) that the multinationals discarded, and produce quality goods from our quality resources. And we really have to stop giving our water away to the unquenchable, thirsty, Yankee imperialist dogs.

The sad part of the story is that a month after retiring with more money than anyone would need, a thrombus got him.
So don’t forget to live it up boys (and grrls)! It’s a one-way trip!

#226 InvestorsFriend on 01.31.18 at 2:30 pm

The Personal Services Economy

#213 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.31.18 at 1:49 pm addresses a question:

#204 IHCTD9 on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm
#194 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 12:50 pm

With the progress of automation and AI that will change.

What are people going to do in their cornflakes homes and glass condoes with no work?
================================

Chain massages. If you have say at least 8 people each massaging the next person you can complete a circle thus everyone is employed and everyone pays the person behind them for the massage.!

************************************
You may be saying that in jest as if it does not work. Actually, it’s perfectly fine. In this example people value massages but need another person to give them a massage. Each person receives a valued massage and pays for it by giving a massage. Nothing wrong with that.

Of course people first need the basics of food clothing and shelter. But after basic needs are taken care of personal services as described are a perfectly legitimate part of the economy.

Of course we tend to specialize but the example given here works just fine. Of course our little massage session among the eight can’t provide full time employment but it definitely works as a small part of the economy.

#227 paul on 01.31.18 at 2:37 pm

#209 erikTHEwonderful on 01.31.18 at 1:40 pm

I sold my home comfree, it was a decent home. On the smaller side, roughly 1200 sq ft, but nicely renovated and ‘modernized’, 25 year old home in a rural town outside of Hamilton.

Showed the home about 18 different times, and would have sold It 18 times, if it was bigger with a more functioning basement.. as everyone loved it, or at least I think they did…
—————————————————————–
18 Showings, would have sold 18 times if it was bigger,better condition or a more functioning basement(what ever that means) So basically you over priced it. Then you got the 19th greater fool.

#228 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 2:40 pm

#220 John Dough on 01.31.18 at 2:26 pm
The Italian village sale reminded me of a smart man who emigrated here from Italy after the war and did very well. I asked why he picked Canada and he said because here you can scrape the ground with your toe and find wealth. The other thing he said that stuck was that there is always a market for quality. We just have to rebuild the refineries and factories (and breweries) that the multinationals discarded, and produce quality goods from our quality resources. And we really have to stop giving our water away to the unquenchable, thirsty, Yankee imperialist dogs.

The sad part of the story is that a month after retiring with more money than anyone would need, a thrombus got him.
So don’t forget to live it up boys (and grrls)! It’s a one-way trip!

—————————–

That is the key point, my friend, that is the key point.

If he had staid in Italy, I bet that he would have lived much longer and better life with less money with his grappa and green salads/fish diet.

BTW there is a big difference from Canada now and from 40-50 years ago when people really had a chance.
now they are just low paid slaves, as a friend of mine from Honk Kong once said. Cheap labour in a very expensive place.

#229 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 2:56 pm

#226 InvestorsFriend on 01.31.18 at 2:30 pm

Good idea.

I think we need to include into the GDP all that additional value from doing non-officially recorded/non-financial transactions.

Like taking care of kids and grand kids. Or wathing T2 selfies.

Hint – that should be taxable.

And include the pleasure of being screwed on taxes into the GDP as well as a hedonic adjustment.

It is very unfair to understate the real GDP growth provided by our wise leaders by leaving the above out of it.

#230 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 3:14 pm

Hey, I forgot the obvious gas price fixing.

How much is the gas in GTA these days?

#231 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 3:18 pm

#230 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 3:14 pm
Hey, I forgot the obvious gas price fixing.

How much is the gas in GTA these days?

————————————-

Toronto & GTA gas prices

Gas prices are expected to drop 2 cents on Feb. 1, 126.9 cents/litre.

If memory serves me well, it was bellow a dollar at the end of 2016.

Now I know what deflation/2 % yearly inflation is.

#232 crossbordershopper on 01.31.18 at 3:20 pm

we should all post our best realtor joke, like a competition to find the most idiotic realtor there is.
my vote is : we went to an open house, and said the price is very fair, we asked the lady how did you set the price, i was expecting some comparision etc, no she said in east european accent, “i price to sell”, thats it PHD level analysis there.

#233 A J on 01.31.18 at 3:24 pm

#228 Stan Brooks

Ouch.

Sure Canada has it’s issues, like any other country. But is it really THAT bad? My goodness. This country is beautiful and free, and full of opportunity. The way you talk, I’d swear it was worse than North Korea.

Canada is constantly listed in the top 10 countries in the world to live in. Count your blessings.

#234 James on 01.31.18 at 3:35 pm

#73 Smoking Man on 01.30.18 at 8:30 pm
Whos going to watch #SOTU
My full commentary after
Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics
__________________________________
OMG, Smoking Man your comments on the State of the Union Address by the Fuhrer were unquestionably the preeminent elucidation of what Donald Trump has to offer the entire free world! Absolutely amazing old man give yourself a pat on the back for that commentary. Just one question how did you get all of those crickets to chirp at the same time?

#235 InvestorsFriend on 01.31.18 at 3:35 pm

Do Not Fear The Jobless Econonmy

#222 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 2:14 pm has fears about the future economy saying:

#204 IHCTD9 on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm
#202 InvestorsFriend on 01.31.18 at 1:17 pm

—————————————————-
Thanks for the great responses and understanding.
Not many people realize the future that waits them in a jobless world.

The question here is what will motivate the owners of ‘Real estate’, land, resources, productive capital to produce for the government and the public when they do not constitute customers for them and they don’t need salaried employees.

So who will pay the debt, who will pay the taxes to support public sector workers and government, including health, municipal infrastructure, minimum guaranteed income if most of the productive assets and capital is owned by international corporation who can leave at any point in time just to avoid paying taxes here?

*****************************************
Warren Buffett addressed this in detail in his 2015 annual letter. He noted that some will suffer losses but was unabashedly optimistic about the future that most people will have.

See the section titled productivity and prosperity at page 21. Also page 6 where he addressed job cuts at Kraft-Heinz.

Buffett is a brilliant economist and a brilliant writer. It is well worth the time to read his words.

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2015ltr.pdf

Somewhere I believe Buffett also wrote that if we got to the point where all the goods and services of the world could be produced by one person pushing a button, we would obviously be better off. It would be a matter of how to share the bounty. I can’t find that at the moment.

I go back to my main advice for a jobless future. Invest to own companies. Those who don’t will be on the dole. Being on the dole may in fact be a great life in the future. But a better life will be enjoyed by the owners of capital.

#236 45north on 01.31.18 at 3:43 pm

Every Bitcoin Investor:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQegMA_kY9Y

“I’m down $80,000, I’m in deep man”

#237 Fake News Again on 01.31.18 at 3:46 pm

#205 millmech on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm
Andrew Weaver is holding a press conference this afternoon calling(telling) the NDP to ban foreign buyers. I wonder if the NDP will proceed with this or if they do not will Weaver take them down, the Green Party seem pretty adamant about pushing this through.

Leadership from behind. I expected more of the Greens. – Garth

_______

If we had a PM like Trump…….you would not be paying 2 million dollars for a moldy shack in Vancouver.

#238 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.18 at 3:53 pm

@#141 Trumpocalypse2018

God Bless ya.
I knew you’d pop up.
No comment on the Economist Special Edition?
The Next War

China’s vassal state North Korea with its ICBM nukes and Trump’s delusions = Aiiiii Yaaaaa

#239 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.18 at 3:54 pm

I guess nuclear war is the only thing that will save British Columbians from…..exorbitant car insurance.

#240 millmech on 01.31.18 at 3:59 pm

I also wonder what retaliation Alberta is going to put on BC for trying to stop the Bitumen, I guess no one stopped to think that anything that arrives in BC by ship gets trucked through Alberta to the rest of Canada. I guess they could put up safety inspections on their highways for all goods that come from BC. Just think of all that extra time for each truck to get through the border into Alberta and another inspection for each vehicle as it leaves Alberta.
BC NDP /Greens need to get bullet proof footwear as they just keep shooting themselves in the foot.

#241 Steven Rowlandson on 01.31.18 at 4:06 pm

People have forgotten that real estate is just place to live. It isn’t an investment and shouldn’t be too expensive.

#242 maxx on 01.31.18 at 4:09 pm

#20 Vancouver Brit on 01.30.18 at 7:00 pm

“I bet the vast majority of those with no sales are those who don’t even try to sell.”

Not quite. Realtard licence and membership fees are high. Office running costs are often shared and admin. fees are also high. Many realtards I know constantly gripe about these recurring expenses. The impetus to produce is significant. Only the cream disregard and/or are given a break on these costs.

#243 conan on 01.31.18 at 4:10 pm

#190 Howard on 01.31.18 at 12:13 pm

Truth hurts.
What about Dykstra and Patrick Brown? Both from Harper Empire Inc. For whatever reason you let these people take over the Ontario PCs.

I am rooting for Vic Fedeli to tear The Short Pant brigade a new one. Who cares if it costs you this election? These people need to be out of politics, and some should be in jail.

#244 jess on 01.31.18 at 4:20 pm

how many brokers switched to credit unions no b20?
================

the old wall a model for the new one?
The new accusations, which cite reporting by The Texas Tribune and ProPublica, raise additional questions about Homeland Security’s oversight
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/01/30/new-allegations-border-fence-lawsuit-racketeering-bribes-and-money-lau/

#245 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.31.18 at 4:28 pm

#226 InvestorsFriend on 01.31.18 at 2:30 pm
The Personal Services Economy

#213 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.31.18 at 1:49 pm addresses a question:

#204 IHCTD9 on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm
#194 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 12:50 pm

With the progress of automation and AI that will change.

What are people going to do in their cornflakes homes and glass condoes with no work?
================================

Chain massages. If you have say at least 8 people each massaging the next person you can complete a circle thus everyone is employed and everyone pays the person behind them for the massage.!

************************************
You may be saying that in jest as if it does not work. Actually, it’s perfectly fine. In this example people value massages but need another person to give them a massage. Each person receives a valued massage and pays for it by giving a massage. Nothing wrong with that.

Of course people first need the basics of food clothing and shelter. But after basic needs are taken care of personal services as described are a perfectly legitimate part of the economy.

Of course we tend to specialize but the example given here works just fine. Of course our little massage session among the eight can’t provide full time employment but it definitely works as a small part of the economy.
==================================

True indeed! Any service or want that is manufactured or done in any way has value as long as it is wanted.

We will never run out of jobs because the world is made up of unlimited wants and limited resources.

Even if all the drivers are out of work. Look at all the dilapidated homes that need repair. The price for that will plummet until all are employed.
Look at your own home and ask yourself what you would buy if you had the money?
Ad new Deck? Hot tub?
Basement reno? Better car?
Prices will plummet for all these things until everyone can afford them or the economy will seize up.
We need and want so many things and we don’t have enough help to do it all.

#246 Smoking Man on 01.31.18 at 4:30 pm

#234 James on 01.31.18 at 3:35 pm
#73 Smoking Man on 01.30.18 at 8:30 pm
Whos going to watch #SOTU
My full commentary after
Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics
__________________________________
OMG, Smoking Man your comments on the State of the Union Address by the Fuhrer were unquestionably the preeminent elucidation of what Donald Trump has to offer the entire free world! Absolutely amazing old man give yourself a pat on the back for that commentary. Just one question how did you get all of those crickets to chirp at the same time?
……

See you finaly woke up from your night shift job.
…….

Shout out to the dogs. Anyone have any questions for Jordan Petterson ? Meeting up with him tonight.

#247 paul on 01.31.18 at 4:36 pm

206 A J on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm

#169 Smoking Man

Dream on. I have way more years left in me than you do. A lot more years left in me than a lot of the aging Conservatives in this country. I’m a Liberal, as well as everyone I know. We’ll be here after you’re gone. And we’ll still be proud Liberals through and through. Sorry to break your stone-cold heart.
—————————————————————–
‘Dream on. I have way more years left in me than you do. A lot more years left in me than a lot of the aging Conservatives in this country’

Boy, to assume that You Are A Greater Fool

#248 Unhinged Trader on 01.31.18 at 4:37 pm

DELETED

#249 jess on 01.31.18 at 4:41 pm

Herstatt Bank (Bankhaus I.D. Herstatt K.G.a.A.) was a privately owned bank in the German city of Cologne. It went bankrupt on 26 June 1974 in a famous incident illustrating settlement risk in international finance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herstatt_Bank

The failure of Herstatt Bank was a key factor that led to the worldwide implementation of real-time gross settlement (RTGS)systems, which ensure that payments between one bank and another are executed in real-time and are considered final. The work on these issues was coordinated by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision under the Bank for International Settlements.

The continuous linked settlement platform (CLS), was launched almost 30 years later in 2002. This payment versus payment (PVP) process enables member banks to trade foreign currencies without assuming the settlement risk associated with the process, whereby a counterparty could fail before delivering their leg of the transaction.

The World Before SWIFT

Prior to SWIFT, Telex was the only available means of message confirmation for international funds transfer. Telex was hampered by low speed, security concerns, and a free message format–in other words, Telex did not have a unified system of codes like SWIFT to name banks and describe transactions. Telex senders had to describe every transaction in sentences which were then interpreted and executed by the receiver. This led to many human errors.

To circumvent these problems, SWIFT system was formed in 1974. Seven major international banks formed a cooperative society to operate a global network that would transfer financial messages in a secure and timely manner.
Why is SWIFT Dominant? read more @ investopedia

will blockchain replace swift?
The banks that have recently joined the PoC include: ABN AMRO Bank, ABSA Bank, BBVA, Banco Santander, China Construction Bank, China Minsheng Banking, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Erste Group Bank, FirstRand Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, JPMorgan Chase Bank, Lloyds Bank, Mashreq bank, Nedbank, Rabobank, Société Générale, Standard Bank of South Africa, Standard Chartered Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, UniCredit and Westpac Banking Corporation.

These banks will test and validate the PoC’s blockchain application, currently under development by SWIFT and a group of six founding banks that launched the PoC earlier in the year. Working independently of the founding banks, the 22 institutions will act as a validation group to further test the application and evaluate how the technology scales and performs.

“Collaboration is the cornerstone of innovation,” says Wim Raymaekers, Head of Banking Markets and SWIFT gpi at SWIFT. “This new group of banks allows us to greatly extend the scope of multi-lateral testing of the blockchain application and thus add considerable weight to the findings. We warmly welcome the new banks and look forward to their insights.”
https://www.swift.com/news-events/press-releases/22-additional-global-banks-join-the-swift

#250 aa5 on 01.31.18 at 4:47 pm

As this century goes on more and more people will not be working. Already more than 50% of the adult population in Canada does not work(or go to school).

They are mainly retirees, but also long term disability, long term welfare, house wives, trustafarians, Millennial Bernie supporters in their parents’ basement, etc.

Peoples houses going up by $1 million is an example of the automation playing out in a free society. That increase means people can work less and consume more than otherwise.

#251 tccontrarian on 01.31.18 at 5:01 pm

“Over the next few days and weeks expect lots of ink on what a mess real estate’s turned into…” -GT
———————————————————-

A few days or weeks? As you’ve often mentioned, Garth, RE is illiquid and takes months to transact.
South of us the peak was in 2007 and it took 3-4 years to bottom.
Based on this and other historic data, I’d say prices will continue to drop for at least 2 years – likely more!

I’m preparing to be a buyer in 2020-2022 (when the general sentiment turns extremely bearish on real-estate). I hope it’s 2020 so that I can then claim I had ’20-20 vision’! :)

TCC

#252 A J on 01.31.18 at 5:01 pm

#247 paul

Riiiggghhtttt. I’m a millennial. Are you? What about Smoking Man? It’s called biology. Ya’ll aren’t going to live forever. Sorry.

#253 PastThePeak on 01.31.18 at 5:05 pm

@ #198 IHCTD9 on 01.31.18 at 1:04 pm

Trudeau and Co look to be losing the NAFTA negotiations, new taxes being levied at every turn, Conservatives toast in Ontario again, ultra-high minimum wages in force, more big business leaving every week, stupid high energy costs with taxes piled on top a mile high, business investment bailing out of the country, big energy projects scuttled, pensions and healthcare costs for Boomers starting to get real, Trump is giving us an economic rag-dolling, interest rates rising, debt rising, deficit rising.

Taxes IMHO, have just about hit the max. Not too much more can be carved without folks really starting to avoid/offset them. I do it every day, and enjoy it like a hobby.

====================================

It certainly looks like a tipping point toward inevitable decline is in the not too distant future. It is now only “emergency rates” (stimulus) – 9 years after the last recession – that is keeping the problem below the radar for most.

On a personal level, consumer debt is so high, and cash flow so thin, that a recession with some job losses is going to cause much more damage than the last two. Poloz doesn’t feel confident about moving the BoC rate past 1.5%! As rates are kept low for longer, the problem only gets worse – Poloz seems to think that if he talks about it enough, Canadians will suddenly switch from debt accumulation to paying that debt off, without an increase in rates (first class delusional).

Government debt, across all 3 levels of gov’t (fed, prov & territories, municipal) is about $1.4 trillion, in economy of about $1.6T. After 9 years into the current expansion, with a growing economy in most places for those years, both the feds and ALL provinces are still growing the debt (Quebec balanced its operational budget, but is still overall adding to its net debt).

So what will happen in the next recession? Significant increases in debt (lower revenues + more spending as most will have Lib/NDP gov’ts). Net debt to GDP will quickly surge past 100%. This is above where it was in the bad ol’ mid-90’s (when Canada was considered a banana republic fiscally). The reason is that back then, the federal debt was the really bad number, and the prov + muni weren’t (so) bad. Total combined debts did not exceed GDP.

They soon will, and at a rock bottom interest rates (vs. almost double digits in the 90’s). A couple of credit downgrades and the cost of servicing that debt will grow anyways.

You can’t tax the rich much more – it is at 54% marginal now anyways. The small biz adjustment makes that route just as bad. Only be making the bottom 90% pay more can really more revenue come there, but not politically feasible and will cause many to crumble.

I like the idea of slowing down, earning less buy paying less tax, but I would wager JT would bring in a wealth tax, so even if you earned nothing, they would still want a piece of your accumulated savings. It will come eventually – perhaps it will be the Liberals star policy for Election 2023…

#254 DON on 01.31.18 at 5:19 pm

#205 millmech on 01.31.18 at 1:24 pm
Andrew Weaver is holding a press conference this afternoon calling(telling) the NDP to ban foreign buyers. I wonder if the NDP will proceed with this or if they do not will Weaver take them down, the Green Party seem pretty adamant about pushing this through.

Leadership from behind. I expected more of the Greens. – Garth
*******************************

There is a by election on the way (Christy the Corrupt) seat is up for grabs. Mr. Weaver should be contacting Mr. Trudeau to make a federal decision. The NZ feds made the decision and our feds should have to do the same.

As for oil sludge on the BC coast – you know that stuff if spilled sinks to the bottom. Let’s take a scientific approach to things for once. Make it as safe as possible before we kill everything for profit that we never share in.

#255 Penny Henny on 01.31.18 at 5:25 pm

#199 Stan Brooks on 01.31.18 at 1:10 pm
A bet that nobody will go to jail for the bread price fixing.

////////////////////

I know that nobody went to jail for the great financial crisis in 2008

#256 LivinLarge on 01.31.18 at 6:14 pm

Double M “if people are not listing their homes so there are fewer listings won’t this drive up prices??”…the vast majority of buyers are also sellers in the chain so simple supply/demand/price logic doesn’t work.

Until you can find a market that has an unlimited supply of first time buyers you’re going to drop buying demand right along with supply and then throw in the double whammy of rising rates and B20 and you’ve just pushed down the price of what the first timers can get approved for and the current owners are sitting tight with what they have and put off buying house % 2, 3 or what ever until prices bottom out or start back up.

All that’s left to list their properties then are the wrinklies getting out of home ownership all together.

#257 Steven Rowlandson on 02.01.18 at 3:35 pm

Found this at #245

What are people going to do in their cornflakes homes and glass condos with no work?

Answer: Do what I do, sleep in a car during the warm months and sleep on a mat in a church during the cold months and curse the GD real estate market and its genocidal greed. In my case I have a job but it doesn’t pay the 80 to 90 bucks an hour needed to buy a place to live so the real estate boycott continues.