Mr. Obvious

The bank rate may have jumped just a little Wednesday but we passed a giant milestone. It says ‘5’.

The five-year posted mortgage rate at all of the banks has now jumped the 5% mark. With this week’s CB pop the Bank of Canada’s benchmark mortgage rate will also pass the five level. Add the B20 stress test and anyone borrowing will have to qualify at a minimum of 5.14%. In reality, most will have to pass 5.5%. By the end of the year that may well be 6%. So, get ready. Obvious consequences.

“It’s like that proverbial switch being flipped,” an east-end GTA professional appraiser told me two hours after Stephen Poloz puffed the cost of money. “This market is dead. Finished. Most of the work I’m doing now is for refinancings as people just try to stay afloat – and the values they’re still putting on their places are laughable.”

Likely fallout: house sales tank for at least a few months. The Spring 2018 market will be a shocking reversal from the last rutting season. Demand will be squished not only by rising rates and tougher lending regulations but by negative market psychology. When people expect prices to be lower in four or eight weeks, they stop buying. Meanwhile listings – already beefy – will bloat.

Repeated will be a pattern most Canadians never understand: when prices rise sellers retreat, worried about buying into a rising market even when they could maximize profits. Demand outstrips supply and the bubble builds. When markets tank, sellers panic and rush to bail out, worried they won’t get a fair price. Supply overwhelms demand, forcing prices lower. Boom. Bust. We never learn.

Well, the prime rate at the corner bank is now almost 3.5%. Variable-rate mortgages just went up. So did the rate on your home-equity loan or unsecured line of credit. Ditto for business loans. To follow may be credit card rates and maybe, possibly, remotely, a little titch more on deposit returns.

Add this to the list of losers published here yesterday: all the moisters, newbies and B of Mom clients who rushed in November and December to buy real estate in order “to beat” the stress test requirements. Congratulations, kiddies! You just qualified to borrow a higher heap of debt to buy a home at a price which will be less in six months. It’s like wandering down Yonge Street or Robson leaving thousand-dollar bills in the empty coffee cup of every homeless dude outside each Starbucks – but without the social redemption. Or buying Bitcoin.

The other two big stories this week are equally impactful. Let’s hope you heeded the advice of a certain pathetic blog to shun the fabled cryptocurrency, but  maintain your equity exposure.

Bitcoin, as of martini time mid-Wednesday (it’s what we do on Bay Street), had officially shed 50% of its capitalization in a single month. Waffling at the $10,000 level, it was worth less than half the value a week before Chistmas, when billions flowed into the cryptohole, much of it borrowed on millions of hipster credit cards. Like every other speculative, herd-fuelled, vapid bubble which preceded it (tulips, dot-coms, bullion, bungalows), this was bound to wobble and crater.

But ‘digital currencies’ carry a special risk, which is the impossibility of success. As the Bank of Canada just proved again this week, CBs have an iron grip on money which is never, ever going to be broken. No alternative, non-state, unregulated, web-based Snapchatty cash will become mainstream currency. So BTC was a roulette game. Pure specking. The outcome never in question. Get out.

So if the coin’s in a bubble, then aren’t stocks doing the same? The Dow on Wednesday crashed through the 26,000 mark and has surged 5.5% in just two weeks. That’s on top of a 25% gain last year, and it’s all being called a ‘melt-up’. Which it is, probably with more to come. The drivers of the market include Trump’s yuge tax cut, romping corporate profitability and the renewed global growth which has goosed job creation, inflation and – yes – higher interest rates.

The difference between equities and Bitcoin is that stocks actually represent an ownership stake in companies making money. BTC, on the other hand,  is an investment in man buns. But, admittedly, both are propelled by emotion, greed and testosterone.

The obvious choice is stocks, but held in a broadly diversified ETF to reduce risk, and in balance with other assets (fixed income) to reduce volatility. When equities inevitably correct, the safe stuff becomes more valuable and you get to sleep at night. Which is more than can be said for cryptomaniacs or slanty-semi owners tonight.

261 comments ↓

#1 IM in C on 01.17.18 at 4:44 pm

Big Price drop? Won’t happen, at least for homes under $1MM. First off, the banks won’t allow it. Secondly, people will simply sit on their homes and not sell like they have done in the past.

#2 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 4:48 pm

That image of Garth sipping his martini on Bay Street of Thieves while decrying those hard working Canadian plebs’ minimum wage going up.. is enough to make me sick.

#3 Crash on 01.17.18 at 4:55 pm

BTC has crashed many times before.
There is a good chance (at least half I reckon) that it will be back well before 2018 is over.

But yeah, between stocks, crypto, and a SFH, the first one is the safest.

My stock tip for 2018: Cineplex, which is in a rut, but is certain to recover when ppl start going to movies again.

#4 Sebastien on 01.17.18 at 4:57 pm

Vancouver still red hot. Interest rates could be 20% and the market would still soar.

#5 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 4:58 pm

The most important takeaway from today’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report is that once again, the most important metric to the average Canadian worker, REAL (inflation adjusted) WAGE GROWTH, is non-existent.

#6 TheDood on 01.17.18 at 4:59 pm

LOL! I love this blog!

FIRST (hopefully!)

#7 Flyboy on 01.17.18 at 5:00 pm

Locked in the remaining 3 years of my mortgage at 3.14% yesterday at TD, think it was the right call.

Now does anyone want to buy my place in Niagara?

#8 Robert B on 01.17.18 at 5:01 pm

Thanks to Trump’s tax reform policy

As part of the equity melt up, Apple just announced that it will repatriate some of its hoard from Ireland. Investment in the US is sure to drive up Apple Stock.

Other companies will be soon to follow, causing the frenzy to continue….

Onwards and upwards

Happy trading….

#9 Tom on 01.17.18 at 5:01 pm

Won’t tank in Vancouver. Horgan is showing his true colours by backing down on banning foreign ownership. As long as we have corrupt and inept politicians bought off by the real estate industry, mortage rates won’t make much of a difference.

#10 The Next Fun-Run on 01.17.18 at 5:02 pm

The only ETF you need for 2018 is HMMJ.

#11 Kyle Griffin on 01.17.18 at 5:04 pm

Ha by the time you finished your martini the whole crypto market cap was up 150 billion from low.

#12 Mike on 01.17.18 at 5:04 pm

.
Good Job Garth marking us aware of GTA bubble. It indeed is/was.

But hey, no much issues here in GVA. Things are rocking and rolling UP. Little bit muse here and there, but 2013/14/15 prices are bye bye.

No B-20, no 8%…….you know what I mean.

#13 Mike on 01.17.18 at 5:05 pm

.
Just emailed Horgan that he is no different than corrupt Liberals. He is refusing banning foreign ownership.

Will call MLA and Horgan tomorrow. My email was bad……and rude.

Horgan is correct. Now try being rude to me. – Garth

#14 Nigel Tufnel on 01.17.18 at 5:06 pm

The Bank rate will go to 11

#15 Smoking Man on 01.17.18 at 5:07 pm

One mistake from a bad sales men saved us from the tyrant of a one world govt.

His name Al Gore. Had he went with mini ice age due too carbon the UN would be funded, a UN Armey established.
Then the eugenics started

We are indebted to Al Gore

#16 anne on 01.17.18 at 5:10 pm

all i have to say is…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GwjfUFyY6M

#17 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 5:17 pm

Someone said yesterday it’s amazing how much drama a 0.25% rate hike in Canada causes. So true. Everyone says 3 rate hikes since last year, yes sure. But NET, this is the first and only rate hike since 2011. And this country can barely handle it. The first 2 rate hikes were just cancelling out the 2 emergency drops in 2015.

https://imgur.com/w2Z4Z2c

#18 Canadian in LA on 01.17.18 at 5:19 pm

It’s not just Canadians who never learn. Humans never learn, but that’s what makes it fun. Although the bitching afterwards and the political will to ‘fix’ the problem is quite annoying.

#19 HanMan3000 on 01.17.18 at 5:20 pm

LOL @ “BTC, on the other hand, is an investment in man buns.”

#20 Rob on 01.17.18 at 5:20 pm

#4 Sebastien on 01.17.18 at 4:57 pm
Vancouver still red hot. Interest rates could be 20% and the market would still soar.

Trolling? U cant be that daft?

#21 Hotdogs from Heaven on 01.17.18 at 5:24 pm

#8 Robert B on 01.17.18 at 5:01 pm

Thanks to Trump’s tax reform policy

As part of the equity melt up, Apple just announced that it will repatriate some of its hoard from Ireland. Investment in the US is sure to drive up Apple Stock.

Other companies will be soon to follow, causing the frenzy to continue….
—————————————————-
And another outcome of this will be HIGHER INTEREST RATES. What? How?

Because virtually all of this $2.3 Trillion in foreign cash is actually held in U.S. T-bills and bonds. In order to cash them in to use for whatever, share buy backs, dividend payments, actual corporate growth, means that they need to be sold or allowed to mature.

The companies that have been buying billions and billions of dollars of this debt will not be doing that in 2018 and 2019. This will mean less demand for the debt thus governments, corporations and institutions issuing the debt will have to offer higher interest rates in order to attract the buyers.

There are so many things that will be driving higher interest rates globally for the next few quarters from real economic growth to inflation to the Federal Reserve’s unwinding of its assets to what I mentioned above.

People pickeled in lots of debt are going to get very screwed if they do not start paying it back soon.

#22 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 01.17.18 at 5:25 pm

nice to see that cheap money is starting to end.
happy hour is here

#23 D Apostrophe on 01.17.18 at 5:29 pm

#1 Im in C is exactly why this GTA market crash is gonna make LA’s crash in 2008 look like a friendly golf game. So much ignorance and hubris.

#24 Andrewski on 01.17.18 at 5:29 pm

For those of us who live below our means, this is a $hitshow to observe from the sidelines.

#25 Cloudy on 01.17.18 at 5:30 pm

Garth and Blog Dogs, I’m trying to snap my wife out of the housing always goes up delusion, but it’s not helping the market has disagreed with me for years. Her (and maybe our) decision on what’s ‘affordable’ has been completely thrown out of whack by the crazy debt binge others are taking. What would be generally a safe price to pay based on earnings? I think our gross family income is about $135K with a good portion of my income deducted into my DB pension. Family members house may be up for sale soon and could find a fair price and skip anybody paying a realtor (a win for society!). Swear to the gods she will leave me soon if we don’t buy a house.

#26 KAC on 01.17.18 at 5:31 pm

For anybody foolish enough to think that rising interest rates don’t effect home prices, see what happened when rates spiked in 1982.

In real inflation adjusted dollars:

From 1979 to 1981 real estate price in Vancouver rose 120% and subsequently declined 51% over 5 years.

It took decades for prices to rebound back to their 1982 peak.

What do you think is killing the Vancouver market today?

#27 NorthOf49 on 01.17.18 at 5:33 pm

Saw my cousin over Christmas, he’s a real-estate agent in Brampton, or should say, was. He said the market there was completely dead, nothing moving. He’s since moved his family to Ancaster and joined a brokerage here. In the couple of months he’s been in Ancaster, he’s been able to close a few deals as he says Hamilton/Ancaster is “more affordable”. Relative to Brampton, he’s probably right, but relative to greater Hamilton/Burlington, prices are still too high here. Sales are dropping though and listings are exploding. Average SFH price in Burlington has actual declined 4.4% over last year. Hamilton won’t soon be far behind I predict.

http://www.rahb.ca/2018/01/no-chill-on-december-2017-sales/

#28 Zapstrap on 01.17.18 at 5:35 pm

#3 Crash on 01.17.18 at 4:55 pm

My stock tip for 2018: Cineplex, which is in a rut, but is certain to recover when ppl start going to movies again.

Last time I went to the theater was my last. The Cineplex was FILTHY … overflowing garbage cans … crap all over the floors … and had to sit through 20 minutes of commercials that were way louder than the movie. Young people just didn’t seem to care. Maybe one day they will wake up. Not holding my breath though.

#29 david on 01.17.18 at 5:35 pm

Garth: spring 2018 may be a strange time, but do you agree that at some point the fundamentals that drive purchases for occupation will continue and should be strong – ie. if the CDN economy is going to have strong employment etc, which is consistent with rising rates, then the demand for first timers, new immigrants, people just moving as they have for decades etc will be there as it always is. The problem is the counterfactual: the past 3yrs of GTA and Van are not helpful as a counterfactual. You know people did buy homes before the crisis at higher rates, right. prices will fall, the market will adjust, and people who need a place to live will continue to buy…

#30 The Boulder on 01.17.18 at 5:36 pm

I knew today’s post would be bit early. Garth got enough aresenol for today. I moved in late 2016 from Ottawa to Toronto, but havn’t sold there, havn’t bought here. When I was planning for this move in early 2016, the price difference was managble for me, but the moment I landed in Toronto, equation changed. I am glad that I am still waiting.
Meanwhile I have been interviewing realtors, but now I feel I don’t need one.

#31 Bob Dog on 01.17.18 at 5:41 pm

Yay. 5.5%. Thats the rate I borrowed at in 1992 to buy my first and only home. It made sense because the payments were cheaper than renting. I paid $165,000 for a 3 bedroom double garage on 50×120 lot near the niagara escarpment in beautiful Dundas Ontario.

Let the bubbles begin bursting. Children love that stuff.

#32 8102 on 01.17.18 at 5:42 pm

“Vancouver still red hot. Interest rates could be 20% and the market would still soar.”

Are you smoking BC Bud?

#33 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 01.17.18 at 5:44 pm

You SHYSTERS are true scum. Tellimg buyer to rush and lose tens of thousands and soon to be hundreds of thousands of dollars. You uneducated scum should be jailed.
Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#34 The Boulder on 01.17.18 at 5:46 pm

Most of the realtors I interviewed had no idea of intreset rate could go up, till it became very obvious. They strongly believe buying houses is the only way to make money, and there will always enough supply of next wave of fools. Population growth and foreign money is one factor, but it has been over played.

#35 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 01.17.18 at 5:47 pm

You SHYSTER scum can post any fantasy you like on this blog but Vancouver and the GTA are toast.

#36 Frodo on 01.17.18 at 5:48 pm

That chart would be more interesting if it also compared BTC with the Nikkei when it peaked in 1989/90.

Nikkei 225 Index – 67 Year Historical Chart

#37 I am with stupid on 01.17.18 at 5:49 pm

When (not if) the bond markets dies (it is a predicament and a certainty, not just a possibility) and the USD tanks bringing the CAD with it which will sink even faster, forcing dramatic rates increases, watch out for all these fixed income/’safe’ investments.

My take:
100 % stocks/20 % of them energy, 10 % gold stocks.

and forget about any ‘safe’ investments.

If you really believe that Ontario bonds for example have any value at current rates and that real inflation is less than 2 % when oil increases 20 % in a year you need some professional help.

Real inflation is 6-8 %.

#38 YOLO on 01.17.18 at 5:51 pm

Lol. All you old people are so funny. My wife and I are 26 and 28 yrs old. I make $18/hr and my wife makes $13/hr. Her mom gave us $150,000 to buy a house in Langley 4 yrs ago and we are literally rich.

In the last 3 yrs my wife and I have bought matching BMW’s and been to Tahiti, Australia and Europe. We go out for dinner every weekend to some of the best restaurants and have everything we need.

We still have something like $140,000 left on our heloc and we plan on spending every cent of it. You only live once and some of you have never even had the car you’ve always wanted or even been out of the country. Living to die.

The point is, we have no interest in paying this back. It was a great ride if it falls apart and we don’t care. We’re already prepared to claim bankruptcy. Hell, we’ve lived more in 3 yrs than most do in a lifetime. Her mom has made over $2 mill on her place so she isn’t going to care. Get a life.

#39 I am with stupid on 01.17.18 at 5:55 pm

Will the base rates go to 7-10 %?

Give it 4 years.

Real Inflation at 15 % +?

Ontario is trying to force 30 % minimum wage increase. How much you believe the real inflation is?

#40 Vince on 01.17.18 at 5:56 pm

You can still get 5 year fixed Mortgages today at 2.77%. Today’s announcement was already priced in and Poloz signaled today that he is done raising rates in 2018 with all the caveats he put in around NAFTA and dampening inflation. The short end of the yield curve is rising, but the long end isn’t budging as investors are pricing in a low inflation environment for a long period of time.

I don’t see how a 2.77% mortgage rate will deter people. And there are ways to game the B20 rules via a 35 year amortization.

Additionally, I don’t see where the inventory is in Toronto. Only 1 out of every 163 detached homes are for sale.

Crappy house in Riverdale sold for 400k above ask last week (post b20 implementation) with 14 bidders. And there is currently only 1 detached home for sale in all of Riverdale. No bargains to be had there. You need a lot of supply to show up for prices to budge.

What would cause all the supply to suddenly emerge?

#41 Bob Dog on 01.17.18 at 5:57 pm

“wont tank in Vancouver”

Its strange how BC’ers view their province as a product for sale. A get rich quick scheme. The Palestinians should have gone that route. They would all be wealthy and sitting pretty (probably in Canada)

Will developers just hold their breath until someone comes up with the cash to buy their condos? The developers have been screwing Canadians so hard they will still make a profit even if they sell for 50% less than what delusional hillbillies have been paying up til now.

#42 N on 01.17.18 at 5:58 pm

The only way this can be true is… if…. the buyers are purchasing homes with foreign funds….

Rising mortgage rates unlikely to slow down hot Toronto housing market

The volume of home sales in the first two weeks of January is 6 per cent lower than the same period last year when the Toronto area market frenzy was building to its April peak, said John Pasalis, the number-crunching president of Toronto brokerage, Realosophy.
“The mood overall is relatively positive. A lot of buyers need to buy a house,” he said, speculating that many of those are jumping back into the market, after putting their home search on hold last year.

https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/01/17/rising-mortgage-rates-unlikely-to-slow-down-hot-toronto-housing-market.html

A realtor pumping the market. Must be true. – Garth

#43 Entrepreneur on 01.17.18 at 5:58 pm

About “digital currencies carry a special risk, which is the impossibility of success” above article. Maybe, but look at the credit card when it first started, takes years of conditioning. And lately banks have a bad name.

So bitcoin is similar to a credit card in that it takes awhile to adjust to it. It is there, like it or not.

And/or is it the new international way of doing business, a way around the banks/credit? A new business tool?

Who knows what will happen but people like convenience, easy and habit kicks in. And communities and people are in the background, ignored.

A close friend once said that people start something with good intentions but the bad move in, greed/control take over, but this is the worse part, won’t let go. Look at debt, credit cards.

#44 Damifino on 01.17.18 at 6:09 pm

#1 IM in C

…people will simply sit on their homes and not sell like they have done in the past.
————————————

Will they at least stop yammering on and on about how much money they’ve ‘made’?

#45 MF on 01.17.18 at 6:11 pm

RE Cineplex

#28 Zapstrap on 01.17.18 at 5:35 pm

No young people care. There is just lots of other options (streaming videos, netflix etc.). Also, the price of a movie at Cineplex is now becoming prohibitive. The different levels of IMAX are confusing, unnecessary, and too expensive.

If you want a great movie house that is still affordable, choose “Imagine Cinemas”. Canadian company that took over from “Rainbow Cinemas” a while back. The theaters are great. Very roomy and every person gets a comfy chair that reclines fully. Sound system is good too. Highly recommended.

MF

#46 CanadianOne on 01.17.18 at 6:12 pm

A different sound on this pathetic echo chamber of a blog these days….

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/11/30/im-a-depression-historian-the-gop-tax-bill-is-straight-out-of-1929/?utm_term=.a9443a236b01

….and this time it’s different because….?

#47 I’m sooooo happy! on 01.17.18 at 6:15 pm

Finally, rates went up! Yaaaaaaaaa

Woooo hoooooo

Hurray

Wheeeeeeeee

Ya ya ya ya!

#48 dharma bum on 01.17.18 at 6:16 pm

…and in other news:

It’s +2 degrees in Winnipeg today (yah..I’m just passing through on a road trip), but it was 20 below yesterday.

This proves that ANYTHING can happen, so don’t get too cocky with your U.S equities going through the roof.

Regina tomorrow.

Stay balanced. A correction is coming.

#49 VanMan on 01.17.18 at 6:16 pm

It will take more than a few .25% pops to deter the BC market… not just Vancouver, but the whole southern portion of the province including the island. My call, by this time next year we’re still seeing prices stable or slowly rising. There will be no significant (beyond 5% drop). The cost of money may be rising for Canadians and unaffordable to most of us, but globally our prices are cheap on a relative basis. Expect more of the same, except the majority of purchasing, will be from outside rather than within.

PS. Can we ban the shyster guy… it’s getting old fast.

#50 Mark on 01.17.18 at 6:16 pm

Back-of-the-envelope math:

An ETF tracking the TSX60 index pays out a yield of approximately 2.66%.

A Canadian broker lends for 2.25%.

The dividend tax credit is worth approximately 25% in terms of taxes paid.

2.66% / ( 1 – 25%) = 3.54% pre-tax.

Thus, 3.54% / 2.25% = 157%.

The TSX index thus can go up 57% and still be a cash-flow positive investment. Assuming that dividends remain constant, and assuming that Poloz is done with rates at current levels.

The implied TSX level = 25,600. So roughly what the Dow is these days.

#51 Realtor Friend of Mine on 01.17.18 at 6:18 pm

Spoke with my friend today who is a realtor and they are just dying, business has all but washed up. Many have had no sales in the last few months and they are starving as tax season approaches. Bitter, bitter times for these guys. The fat lady is singing, and boy it sounds UGLY!

#52 MF on 01.17.18 at 6:21 pm

#41 N on 01.17.18 at 5:58 pm

“A realtor pumping the market. Must be true. – Garth”

-The Toronto (Red) Star, aside from being a socialist joke, always runs articles like that.

It’s basically a print version of Hot Property on CP24, where we are told that EVERY location is up and coming and a good buy. Jane and Finch? Up and coming. Malvern? Up and coming. Buy buy buy.

MF

#53 People are panicking on 01.17.18 at 6:24 pm

Today there was absolute panic about this interest rate hike, the fear of people being stretched so thin. I cannot believe how close people are to the edge, it’s scary. The stories of people who are a hair away from going under. It’s worse than people think.

#54 The Truth on 01.17.18 at 6:29 pm

Talked to two GTA realtors today, Oh, my things are dire! One sent their partner back to work to cover costs as no deals have closed, hence no commission, the other barely able to hold onto their own primary residence and are sinking under the burden of carrying the house. I have never heard such honesty from realtors, as I did today. I can’t believe it only took a .25 rate hike to bring out the ugly truth that most of us knew all along.

#55 Reddit Bulls on 01.17.18 at 6:30 pm

Housing bulls seem a whole lot quieter on Reddit.

Variable rate at 3.45%. First time in 9 years.

#56 Investx on 01.17.18 at 6:31 pm

Looks like savers may finally start being rewarded again.

#57 Stone on 01.17.18 at 6:31 pm

#2 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 4:48 pm
That image of Garth sipping his martini on Bay Street of Thieves while decrying those hard working Canadian plebs’ minimum wage going up.. is enough to make me sick.

———-

Hmmmm…the image of you being sick is somehow extremely satisfying. Thanks! You made my day and probably Garth’s too.

#58 MF on 01.17.18 at 6:34 pm

#38 I am with stupid on 01.17.18 at 5:55 pm

Agreed. You have to strategically ignore everything that you consume every day and that is valuable to you to get the “real” inflation numbers. Ignore rent/housing. Ignore gas. Ignore food prices. Only then will the truth come out. You will see than a brand new Ipad (something you buy every 5 years) costs only “a little more” than last time. It’s hilarious. I would even peg inflation at 10%.

#40 Bob Dog on 01.17.18 at 5:57 pm

“Its strange how BC’ers view their province as a product for sale. A get rich quick scheme. The Palestinians should have gone that route. They would all be wealthy and sitting pretty (probably in Canada)”

-Yup. Instead they turned to terrorism. Sad.

MF

#59 TheDood on 01.17.18 at 6:35 pm

#1 IM in C on 01.17.18 at 4:44 pm
Big Price drop? Won’t happen, at least for homes under $1MM. First off, the banks won’t allow it. Secondly, people will simply sit on their homes and not sell like they have done in the past.

#4 Sebastien on 01.17.18 at 4:57 pm
Vancouver still red hot. Interest rates could be 20% and the market would still soar.

#9 Tom on 01.17.18 at 5:01 pm
Won’t tank in Vancouver. Horgan is showing his true colours by backing down on banning foreign ownership. As long as we have corrupt and inept politicians bought off by the real estate industry, mortage rates won’t make much of a difference.

==========

#1 The banks won’t allow it??? OK. People will sit on their homes and not sell? Excellent.

#2 LOL!

#3 Actually, mortgage rates have always made all the difference in the world.

#60 I am with stupid on 01.17.18 at 6:39 pm

so 9-10 years of sub 1 % rates were not enough so now 1/3 of Canadians are 0.25 % rate increase from going broke?

As we used this time to pile on new credit, not to pay it off.

If you believe that there is a graceful exit where house prices will persist in long term, you will make these payments somehow, will somehow be able to retire and there will be no inflation, you belong to a mental institution/maybe you are already there.

RUN. This is your last warning.

There will be humongous, stupendous stagflation, the leading indicator for which are the asset prices.

The recently enacted bailout laws are there for a reason.

I can’t imagine how financial leaders can sleep these days, I truly can’t imagine it.

BOC governor, financial minister, CHMC boss, bank bosses,

For the fancy socks guy, I understand, he just thinks he is teaching drama to his students.

#61 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 01.17.18 at 6:42 pm

Big yawn. Mortgage rates under 3% are still available and will be for a long time. Wake me up when someone actually has to pay 5% for a mortgage…..my first mortgage was 14% and I got by…….

#62 Tbone on 01.17.18 at 6:43 pm

HMMJ etf pays a dividend too .
I bought it for our tfsa’s a couple of weeks ago.
Got to gamble a little, some of the time .

#63 ronh on 01.17.18 at 6:44 pm

DELETED

#64 Whine Merchant on 01.17.18 at 6:44 pm

The Aussies wine barons are complaining to the WTO that they are disadvantaged because of :

“Canada’s inconsistent measures include extra taxes, fees and markups on imported wine, separate distribution channels reserved for Canadian wine….”

Have they ever tasted our wine? In case the WTO rules in favour, I stocked up at the LCBO today. Perusing a copy of Food & Drink (Do I look 25 to you? No, but I’ll take the chance), I saw a review of the Hasselback potato slicer for people who can’t cut straight ($18.95).

In anticipation of market trends, I have designed a smaller version for cutting beans that I think can retail profitably for $5.95, and I’ll even throw in a rice dicer. I need seed capital ASAP. Who’s in?

#65 crossbordershopper on 01.17.18 at 6:46 pm

with the american market rocking, and Apple saying they are going to invest crazy amount of money in American, not Canada or any other place.
People, the money is in the clouds, not land, 20,000 new jobs in america from one company, Canada is a joke run by jockers. Trudeau is an idiot, and Morneau and Poloz what a buch of amateurs.
the numbers are cooked dont believe the numbers that canada economy is strong, i cant see it, it is very quiet, Canada is heading for a low growth economy.

#66 meslippery on 01.17.18 at 6:47 pm

#31 Bob Dog on 01.17.18 at 5:41 pm

Yay. 5.5%. Thats the rate I borrowed at in 1992 to buy my first and only home. It made sense because the payments were cheaper than renting. I paid $165,000 for a 3 bedroom double garage on 50×120 lot near the niagara escarpment in beautiful Dundas Ontario.

Let the bubbles begin bursting. Children love that stuff.
——–
Here’s a 3 bedroom double garage 178′ deep lot.
Would your job from 1992 @todays rate let you buy this?https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18934724/51-MORTON-Avenue-E-Dundas-Ontario-L9H6W6

#67 Felix on 01.17.18 at 6:48 pm

Today’s blog pic shows again that dogs are not only incredibly stupid, but really, really ugly.

I can’t even tell – are we looking at the rear end of a dumb pooch or the front end…?

(then again, it’s a pic either a few inches from sh*t or brains, the same value in dogs, so maybe it doesn’t matter!)

#68 CanadianOne on 01.17.18 at 6:48 pm

This could be absolutely happening in Canada as well… need more data from the big 4 accounting firms and off course the T2 gang. Leak, hack, data dump, etc would be just fine.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/jan/15/paradise-papers-revealed-commoditisation-of-tax-evasion-australia

#69 Tony on 01.17.18 at 6:49 pm

Re: #3 Crash on 01.17.18 at 4:55 pm

Take a good look at AMC, the nitwits who go to the movies are no longer as the birthrate is dying and the races of people who occupy the GTA don’t go into the coffers of Cineplex. Mortgage rates are up and people are buying 4K televisions. They don’t even have money for movies. The next resistance level on Cineplex is the 20 dollar level. I remember when Cineplex IPO’ed at 5 dollars I had all the insider information and sold it short told the brokerage houses to sell it short. I even know all the nicknames for Cineplex and still have memorabilia from the company. I gave another short sale on the blog Canlan Ice Sports Corp. which now has every negative in the world going for it.

#70 Leichendiener on 01.17.18 at 6:51 pm

VanMan I am archiving your comment. We’ll see where we are in a year.

#71 crdt on 01.17.18 at 6:52 pm

Here is an excerpt from a realtor soliciting business..

“I just want to let you know what’s happening in the Brookswood area in the last few months. Of the 15 development type properties (min 1.5 acres) currently for sale, 12 of those have come up in the last couple of months and 4 of these properties have already dropped the price they were originally listed at. There have only been 2 properties sold since the approval of the development plan and these sold substantially below list price.”

The development plan was supposed to shoot the values to the moon, but now, not only has it not increased value, it has actually lost value… too bad..

“One reason for this is the big line up of applications for development in the area has not happened as was potentially expected and some received applications are being sent back for revision. Another reason is because the new lending effective January 1st on properties like this has caused many investors to take a step back to see what is going to happen. I personally know of some property transactions where the buyers have pulled out, some possibly losing deposits.”

Ah… shucks….

Last paragraph…

“It is important to make sure your transactions are structured with the most protective terms possible within the current market conditions. This is extremely important if you are selling, that your property is exposed to the segment of the market that is still buying these types of property. Marketing should go beyond the traditional ways of selling and normal MLS tools.”

Oh yeah.. make sure we got them by the short and curlies, ’cause they are going to bolt as soon as they see the truth…

Dedicated to “Happy Housing Crash Everyone!”

#72 Plasma Burst on 01.17.18 at 6:53 pm

@37

I agree. But you must add housing to capture the real inflation and not the garbage number the government and mindless economists promote. I’d say real inflation has been running at 11%/yr for the past 10 years.

If you include the shortening lifecycle of products then the real inflation would be north of 12%/year.

The bond market will have its day of reckoning and although I’m excited I’m also a little nervous. I hope it happens before 2025 but sooner the better IMO.

#73 Guy in Calgary on 01.17.18 at 6:55 pm

The overextended in the West are beginning to get caught with their pants down. Some people just have no self control.

I blame the education system. Teach people basic personal finance in school. At least then they don’t have an excuse.

#74 The Toronto Pumpers on 01.17.18 at 6:59 pm

Anyone here claiming here that there is no inventory in Toronto is a straight up lying. Currently today, there are 100 Power of Sales properties. Of course there is also the ballooning “regular” homes up for sale as well.

Happy Housing Crash Everyone: Here are today’s postings:

Power of Sale Listings

Power of Sale Aurora (4)
Power of Sale Barrie (5)
Power of Sale Brampton (9)
Power of Sale Caledon (7)
Power of Sale Clarington (6)
Power of Sale East Gwillimbury (6)
Power of Sale Georgina (7)
Power of Sale Halton Hills (3)
Power of Sale Hamilton (5)
Power of Sale Kawartha Lakes (4)
Power of Sale Markham (10)
Power of Sale Mississauga (20)
Power of Sale Newmarket (4)
Power of Sale Oakville (12)
Power of Sale Oshawa (10)
Power of Sale Richmond Hill (12)
Power of Sale Toronto (100)
Power of Sale Vaughan (5)
Power of Sale Whitby (6)

#75 VancouverDev. on 01.17.18 at 7:08 pm

Garth,
Long time reader, first time posting. I work for a Developer in Vancouver (Yeah, I’m one of those guys..) I can’t help but agree with everyone else from BC who has commented on this post. Cost of money may be going up slightly, but even with 2 more raises this year (a couple hundred dollars added onto the average mortgage) Vancouver and most of Southern BC will not stutter. $2M+ Detached market will slow down a bit then plateau, but that’s all. This market is unlike anything I have seen. Too much capital flowing into this Province, and real estate is still so cheap here in comparison to other major cities.. And yeah, we have bike lanes..

You write that BC blaming foreign buyers is incorrect, and I agree with a lot of what you write Garth but on this you are absolutely wrong. I’ve seen first hand who these Vancouver condos and townhomes are sold to.. First two weeks of any new condo project are for “VIP” Sales, AKA private realtor groups with foreign investor clients. The remaining 30-50% of the units hit the public market 2 weeks later at insane prices with lineups out the door. Developers in no rush to sell remaining units and the public are frantically trying to secure any unit they can get..

These new B20 regs and BoC rate hikes will do nothing to this Vancouver market.. Watch and see.

Lets see what Horgan is up to next month?

#76 The Last Nail In The Coffin on 01.17.18 at 7:17 pm

Milton sales are tanking. Put a fork in that pig, she’s done.

#77 Sebastien on 01.17.18 at 7:20 pm

Zolo indicates that Vancouver is on fire. +26% y/y. The market here is in full hysteresis: Vancouverite’s obsession with real estate feed prices because they’ll buy at any price will be financed no matter what. This makes prices go up and lures more people to buy. Thus the perpetual motion of price escalation.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see suicide bombings at realtor’s offices when they lose a bidding war.

#78 Linda on 01.17.18 at 7:20 pm

Thanks Mark for explaining what may occur to those whose renewals get a ‘NYET!’ yesterday. As for the rate rise today, I’m thankful that I paid off the HELOC before the rate rise(s) took place. Makes it easier to sleep at night, knowing that debt is not lurking in the corner, ready to mug, maim & slaughter peace of mind as well as the bank account. No credit card debt either, hallelujah & pass the popcorn:) Going to be interesting watching how the economy performs in 2018…..

#79 DON on 01.17.18 at 7:21 pm

#1 IM in C on 01.17.18 at 4:44 pm
Big Price drop? Won’t happen, at least for homes under $1MM. First off, the banks won’t allow it. Secondly, people will simply sit on their homes and not sell like they have done in the past.
*****************

Now that is cute…

Rates won’t ever rise again – rates rising.
Crypto will go up forever – hmmm.
Prices of houses will never go done because people will simply not sell….hmm some will HAVE TO sell, and some were already planning to sell (retirement downsizing) and will now be moving towards the exit doors. People’s mileage will vary with respect to this.

Group think is a strong force and can easily trample on common sense, due diligence etc.

The Media, Gov, BoC have been socializing this with the public over the course of the last year. Now that they made this move in light of the over indebted Canadians may mean you are on your own – time to put the big boy/girl pants on. Maybe easier for the BoC to raise next time as you have been warned.

YOU were WARNED!

#80 Capt. Serious on 01.17.18 at 7:21 pm

I’m seeing Garth as Mr. Burns going “Eeeexcellent” as this all unfolds in a slowly evolving train wreck Shakespearean tragedy.

#81 Just my observation on 01.17.18 at 7:25 pm

Just my observation. I see realtors downplaying the interest rate increase. I see people having a difficult time qualifying for mortgage renewals. I see people that have had their homes on the market for months and it’s been crickets. They are hoping for a strong spring market. I have some friends that are fine and will weather this storm effortlessly and I see others that are struggling and there is bitter resentment in their relationships over the financial struggles. It just seems that the extremes are more noticeable right now. More then ever. Divorce, job loss etc. Forces people to sell. Others are living month to month and don’t even fully realize it yet. What interesting times we live in.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.17.18 at 7:25 pm

@#7 Flyboy
“does anyone want to buy my place in Niagara?’
++++++
Your ex girlfriend?

#83 Periscope on 01.17.18 at 7:25 pm

In BC what happens out east no longer matters. Our fate is now driven by the far east, and the money from there. Mortgage rates could go to 20% in Canada, but when the money comes from elsewhere it doesn’t matter.

#84 LivinLarge on 01.17.18 at 7:27 pm

“…people will simply sit on their homes and not sell like they have done in the past.
————————————

Will they at least stop yammering on and on about how much money they’ve ‘made’?”…would be nice but don’t count on it.

Interesting phone call with one of my lawyers today. He’s been a friend for more than 30 years and has evolved his pratice from general civil law into RE and estates law i.e. fields where his clients are almost allhappy at the end of their relationship.

His single practitioner practice has 13 new RE deals in January so far. So, at least in Kitchener, there seems to be minimal meltdown. January ’18 in his words, nothing but the usual seasonal slowdown of every January.

Maybe, Kitchener is different, maybe he just has a better referral relationship with agents, I don’t have any idea so make of it what you will. Just, houses seem to be selling. For how much, also no idea. Certainly not a huge number of for sale sign on the lawns.

#85 2008 FLASHBACK on 01.17.18 at 7:28 pm

Today I was looking at some stats from late spring in 2008 before things began to unravel. The TSX was around 15,000 and the Dow was at 12,000 . Oil was at around $140.00 per barrel and the Canadian dollar was worth more than the USD. Fast forward to today the TSX is at approx 16,300 and the Dow at approx 26,100. TSX has averaged a gain of less than 1% a year since then while the Dow has averaged 11.75% a year since then and over 14% per annum if you take into account the weaker Canadian dollar. That is an astounding difference and reiterates that the price of oil is still very important to Canada’s economic well being.

#86 oncebittwiceshy on 01.17.18 at 7:31 pm

Sebastien on 01.17.18 at 7:20 pm
Zolo indicates that Vancouver is on fire. +26% y/y.

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Isn't it cute when millennial real estate agents post. Okay, now that you have entertained us with the end of December stats, why don't you come back in a month or two.

The most unfortunate part of this crash is that all of these specuvestor/real estate agents etc. won't be back.

#87 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 01.17.18 at 7:32 pm

Prices are dropping at warp speed. SHYSTERS are LEAPING from their penthouses. CREA put malware on my latop.
TREB iS recording my phone calls. SHYSTERS!

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.17.18 at 7:32 pm

@#25 Clouded mind
“Swear to the gods she will leave me soon if we don’t buy a house….”
+++++

So whats worse .
Letting her go now before you have to split a house?
OR
Mortgaging a house and she finds some other reason in a few years to leave you?
Either way, you end up “houseless” and option #2 ensures you’re hugely in debt.
Show her the price of houses last Feb and then THIS Feb. Tell her to wait til next feb so see how much money you’ll save
OR
Show her the door if she doesnt stop nagging about a house.

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.17.18 at 7:35 pm

@#80 Observant
“I see realtors downplaying the interest rate increase.”
*******
Newsflash:
Realtors would consider an Ebola epidemic with millions dead as “a good buying opportunity”.

They have no soul…………..

#90 To Jim #2 From No Fun Jim #1 on 01.17.18 at 7:37 pm

Thanks for your response, at least I am not the only one feeling like I’m not having any fun. Listen to your wife then, I don’t have a wife, but yours is probably right.

But if you do start spending (this hurts me just thinking about it) be responsible. Keep me updated if you start having too much fun.

My fun today was that I secretly cheered out loud when I heard the BoC raised rates (us saver need something to cheer about)!

All the best Jim!

#91 Flyboy on 01.17.18 at 7:38 pm

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.17.18 at 7:25 pm

Your ex girlfriend?
———————————-
Lol I wish. She can’t afford it.

#92 millmech on 01.17.18 at 7:38 pm

People just need to do the math, I helped our real estate guru at our work today, to help him figure out a worse case scenario for his mortgages. It actually was not to bad at an 8% rate increase over five years his mortgage obligation to the banks will increase by another $6000/mth bringing total mortgage to possibly $8650 ish a month. He still wants to buy at least two more income properties.
I am buying bank stock like crazy

#93 steph on 01.17.18 at 7:39 pm

I like what you say Garth but the ETF thingy is for safe boring people at retirement age.

Now, for younger dudes like I, there is nothing wrong with owning individual stocks. I would tell them to be long, ignore the hype and learn maths, self control and logical thinking.

If you don’t master the three qualities above, yes, stick to ETF. But if you do, you understand bitgnorance is a disease, try individual promising stocks with real value, it’s fun!

My 2 cents Garth.

#94 To Livin Large on 01.17.18 at 7:41 pm

Well only 2 homes have sold in Kitchener in Januaray. Yes 2, so I think your friend/lawyer is feeding you some crap!

#95 I love how the indebted on 01.17.18 at 7:46 pm

I love how the deeply indebted on this site, keep telling us all about the stories they heard that the market isn’t really crashing.

Wake up and smell the Napalm. This real estate nuke has hit Ontario.

#96 Shawn on 01.17.18 at 7:46 pm

TSLA to $500 in 2018.

#97 Muttley O'Toole on 01.17.18 at 7:48 pm

#58 Felix – IMO dogs look up at you, not down at you like cats. Dog owners are happy people,they enjoy life,they know how to smile and to love.
But, cat people ? … I don’t think so!
Still, I suppose it takes all kinds. . . . just saying.

#98 AK on 01.17.18 at 7:49 pm

“The five-year posted mortgage rate at all of the banks has now jumped the 5% mark.”
=====================================
Ah, I remember my first mortgage. 5 years @ 9.25%…

And what were prices then? Coincidence? – Garth

#99 steph on 01.17.18 at 7:51 pm

Or was it my two Satoshi..
Very confusing.

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.17.18 at 7:51 pm

@#86 Happy Housing Crash Everyone!
“SHYSTERS are LEAPING from their penthouses. CREA put malware on my latop.
TREB iS recording my phone calls…..”
+++++++

You crazy bastard.
Beer came out my nose …..
Next time warn me

#101 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 01.17.18 at 7:51 pm

this crash will make THE Nibiru cataclysm LooK LIKE a Star Trek rerun. SHYSTERS feeding WhiSKAS to their children with impunity.

sent from my Atari 1040ST

#102 VanMan on 01.17.18 at 8:01 pm

A couple .25 increases means diddly…

http://www.vancouverisawesome.com/2018/01/17/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-adjustment/

Wow. An in-depth article on mortgage rates based on one interview – with a mortgage broker. Are you always this gullible? – Garth

#103 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 8:01 pm

‘It’s slavery in the modern world’: Foreign workers say they were hungry, abused at Toronto temple
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/hindu-priest-abuse-allegations-1.4485863

How in the world can people still defend this Canadian human trafficking program? This is pretty disgusting stuff. I love how some of you actually have the nerve to call me xenophobic. I’m not the one who supports human slavery, human trafficking and human exploitation in this country. The TFW program and all its evil sister programs need to be abolished. These migrants should not be brought here so they can be exploited. ALL Canadians should be embarrassed and disgusted that slavery goes on in this country. Absolutely shameful.

This is not the Canada I grew up in.

#104 Andrew t on 01.17.18 at 8:03 pm

52 People are panicking on 01.17.18 at 6:24 pm
Today there was absolute panic about this interest rate hike, the fear of people being stretched so thin. I cannot believe how close people are to the edge, it’s scary. The stories of people who are a hair away from going under. It’s worse than people think.
—-
Well I certainly didn’t see any of that at the office. But the topic was, as they say these days, trending.

I saw a couple of testy exchanges on my Facebook feed. A bit of “told you so” not going over well. But then again, does it ever?

#105 Nonplused on 01.17.18 at 8:03 pm

#2 Screwed Canadian Millenial

Let’s see, what has Garth the thief done over the course of his long career of debauchery? I do’t know it all but he built some sort of news company, got elected to parliament, wrote a bunch of books, gained a client base for a wealth management business, and built an ice cream store creating jobs where before there were none. What have you done?

Not all of his businesses succeeded, but nobody has a perfect track record in the entrepreneurial space. So I think he is entitled to his martini.

There is nothing wrong with a minimum wage per say if it is reflective of market realities and designed to prevent employee abuse. For example if the going rate for a fast food worker is $9 an hour it’s ok to set the minimum wage at $8 to make sure immigrants or whoever it may be is not abused by their employers based on the fact they may not have proper protections or options. But when the government decides for political reasons to give the whole group of them a 25% raise and expects employers to somehow cover it, the market distorts. Adjustments get made. People lose their jobs. Working moms can’t afford daycare anymore and have to quit. Prices go up. It’s going to be an all around disaster.

If there was enough jobs to go around and enough demand for labor, most people would already be making $16 because that’s how economies and markets work. Then you could set a $15 minimum to prevent abuse of vulnerable people. But when labor can be had for $9 and the government raises the minimum to $15 it is a long term shock to the labor markets.

The effect is going to be the same as sin taxes on tobacco and alcohol. Demand will drop. It has to, because the people that rely the most on minimum wage labor don’t have all that much more money to pay the extra costs themselves. They will have to cut back on consumption, even if it means quitting their job because they just can’t afford daycare anymore.

Who eats the most at McDonald’s? I can guarantee it’s not the “Thieves of Bay Street”. It’s the blue collar folks driving a UPS van or working in a factory. Since the price of a “Quarter Pounder Meal” has a pretty good correlation to the minimum wage, well, that’s going to $15 soon too. McDonald’s can’t do anything else, besides cut staff, because they don’t have any money! All their money comes from the till.

So this whole thing is going to backfire bigly. Those folks who manage to keep their jobs will see a benefit but the number of people on welfare is going to go up. Unemployment is going to go up. Crime is going to go up because theft is highly correlated to unemployment. People with money don’t go out of their way to steal stuff and risk imprisonment. Desperate people do. You want a high crime rate? Pass policies that cause high youth unemployment and there you go you have it.

All things in an economy are connected and the government cannot just will one portion into another state without distorting the whole thing.

#106 the Jaguar on 01.17.18 at 8:03 pm

The Jaguar is still musing over Old Ron the Realtor’s post yesterday where he said..
“1/3 of my companies deals are rentals. In the old days there was just a handful every month.”

It’s been my observation that those who saw real estate as an instant and infallible path to wealth and who jumped at the opportunity to submerse themselves in rental property debt are beginning to smell the cookies burning in the oven. Especially if they chose a variable rate mortgage based on the prime rate that got boosted by Steve today. Imagine for a moment how many mortgages might be out there from a few years back, sitting with the same payment that was calculated based on the prevailing and accepted rate at inception. Oh dear. Unless you adjusted (increased) your payment your remaining amortization is growing, not shrinking. Depressingly true for some. Not only is the property value dropping, but you haven’t reduced the principal as much as you expected due to the rate increases. Guess that ‘get rich quick’ scenario some attached to rental property ownership might not turn out the way they thought.
Diversification of assets and interests, a modest lifestyle, being thankful for one’s blessings in life, and maintaining a strategic equalibrium. Not very flashy, but very comfortable in a ‘true north’ kind of way.

#107 CharlesDaTurd on 01.17.18 at 8:06 pm

Bitcoin will be $20,000 by April 2018.
DJIA will also be at 20,000 in April.

#108 OttawaMike on 01.17.18 at 8:15 pm

2000: Back up the truck and buy Nortel. It just went on sale.
2018: Back up the truck and buy Bitcoin. It just went on sale.

#109 Retired Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 8:18 pm

#3 Crash
My stock tip for 2018: Cineplex, which is in a rut, but is certain to recover when ppl start going to movies again
*****************************************

Agreed! Almost bought it today (down another 2%) at at 5 year low, yielding 5%+. Worried they might cut the dividend, as they burn through cash retrofittibg cinemas into diversified entertainment complexes.
I think I’ll grab 100 shares at market open tomorrow, and hold on tight through the next year.

#110 Captain Obvious on 01.17.18 at 8:20 pm

Raising the minimum wage to $15/hr means that virtually everyone who was making less than $15/hr before is at risk of losing their jobs over the next 5 years. Employers cannot afford to pay people more than they are worth. They have to either raise prices, reduce staff, or go out of business.

If you thought it was hard to get someone to help you with a question at Home Depot before, wait one year. There won’t be anybody there but the folks stocking the shelves and security. Even if you want to visit the lumber yard you’ll have to fill out the order yourself on a touch screen, load it yourself, and the only person you will talk to will be a security guy checking that you paid for everything. You’ll see some guy on a fork lift moving stuff around but he’ll be too busy to help.

#111 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 8:26 pm

#104 Nonplused on 01.17.18 at 8:03 pm
Let’s see.. nice essay but I never called Garth a thief so right off the bat, your very first sentence was wrong and putting words in my mouth. Garth is what he is. He is set in his ways. He is a creature of the system. I don’t think I’m saying anything he would disagree with. I disagree with him on certain things vehemently but I respect him tremendously. I think he’s so burrowed in the weeds of trying to extract as much of a % return as possible, that he forgets that a big chunk of that return for “investors” is scalped right off the back of hard working people. The ones actually doing the work and enabling the profits. Middle class/lower class, blue collar people, just trying to scrape by a living. The system has simply shifted way too far in favor of the monied interests and against the workers. This is leading to political backlash all over the western world and as well it should. They got pretty lucky this time that one of their own, a true billionaire globalist elite conman named Trump got in. But next time they may not be so lucky, and a real populist like Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn will get in and shift the balance of power back to the worker and away from the billionaire oligarchs as Bernie calls them. The economy would of course do far better for the vast majority of people but you might only get a 5% return instead of 7%. Boo hoo.

#112 akashic record on 01.17.18 at 8:29 pm

As the Bank of Canada just proved again this week, CBs have an iron grip on money which is never, ever going to be broken.

Central Bank iron grips are for the plebs.

BTC (or other crypto) will serve similar function to Switzerland and off-shore magics, servicing above the law political interest for the elite of all stripes, all over the world.

#113 Dave b on 01.17.18 at 8:29 pm

Christmas.

#114 Johno on 01.17.18 at 8:33 pm

So does Garth own some type of magical crystal ball? Because his recent predictions have been bang on. What a gem this dude is.

#115 conan on 01.17.18 at 8:36 pm

This is not the Canada I grew up in. – SCM

OMG ,scaffolding work at heights that will maim/kill you.
For a pay check that is slightly more then minimum wage. Looks like skilled work as well.

I believe the workers. Some people get a charge from dishing out the misery to labor peeps. They think it makes them look strong. In the long run, contractors learn to charge a lot more ,or don’t even bother quoting.

No wonder, they are going for TFW. Just outlaw this.
It is just legalized abuse of people.

#116 TheSecretCode on 01.17.18 at 8:38 pm

The developers from Van on Garth’s site in denial?

Yeah, sure – what’s .25 here another .25 there when a condo costs a million dollars in Van.

It is on!!!!

#117 TheSecretCode on 01.17.18 at 8:40 pm

Don’t forget about super hero Horgan initiatives next month.

Any bets on if Horgan finally closes the pre-sale foreign buyer market? I believe it is coming, far too late. Money flowing in from outside of Canada has slowed and the big channel that is still wide open is the pre-sale market (condos). Everyone knows this and the gov has the staggering numbers.

Rates for the first time since ’09 are setting a new trend. Up.

All RE agents right now know it is finished, but that ain’t stopping them from continuing to pump. The only thing stopping them and the only thing they will pay attention to is if buying stops…watch sales dollar volumes in the next few months.

#118 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 01.17.18 at 8:41 pm

“The five-year posted mortgage rate at all of the banks has now jumped the 5% mark.”
=====================================
Ah, I remember my first mortgage. 5 years @ 9.25%…

And what were prices then? Coincidence? – Garth
……………………………..

And what were wages and salaries then? A decent wage was 14 bucks an hour. But you know that……..

#119 april on 01.17.18 at 8:41 pm

#48- No we need him. Are you afraid he might influence the market downward…

#120 Flatlander on 01.17.18 at 8:42 pm

YQR and YYZ aside, the same effects of the rate increases and stress tests are happening in the flatlands

From ReginaRealtors® 2017 Stats…

“During the year there were 3,271 residential sales reported in all geographic areas, down 4% from 3,408 recorded in 2016. This is the fewest number of sales in the past ten-year period and the lowest since 2006 when 2,943 sales were reported. Sales in the city came in at 2,677, a decrease of 5% from 2016’s 2,814″……

“At the end of the year there were 1,183 listings on the MLS® System in the city, an increase of 19% from last year’s 991. This is the highest level of active listings in the city at a year-end in decades.
Supply peaked at 1,537 listings in August and had been on a steady decline to the end of the year albeit at historically high levels. New listings received on the system in the city for the year totaled 5,685, an increase of 9% from 2016’s 5,239”.

ReginaRealtors® COE is quoted saying, “…another round of new and more stringent mortgage stress rules introduced by the federal government to make it even more difficult for buyers to qualify for mortgage financing is concerning. This market needs stimulus on the demand side, not the dampening effects this will have”

In other words…”If there are less debt slaves…who pays for my Audi?”

#121 Asterix1 on 01.17.18 at 8:43 pm

#1 IM in C on 01.17.18 at 4:44 pm
Big Price drop? Won’t happen, at least for homes under $1MM. First off, the banks won’t allow it. Secondly, people will simply sit on their homes and not sell like they have done in the past.
—————————————————

Wow! You really can’t get more clueless than this!

This really takes 1st place!

#122 april on 01.17.18 at 8:44 pm

#76 – Zolo realty is a real estate brokerage.

#123 westcdn on 01.17.18 at 8:45 pm

I spent several summers working at harvesting wheat in Saskatchewan. I loved those boys and their families. We had more than a few adventures. I liked Mark – he was a good man like the others. His wife died early from a heart attack. Women wanted him – I can only wish. It took me a while to drive the JD 105 with competence. I will not forget harvesting chickens with the neighbors. There were not wealthy but God they were good people.

I met a woman named Winnifred (my mother’s name) who owned a house near the family farm. She would come out for the summers and grasshoppers. The boys would joke about painting a hockey stick green and wait for the hoppers with flame throwers. I would complain about the hoppers but then I was told it raised the protein count – look it up.

So Winnifred never married nor had children. She liked me and invited to her home. She was 80 years old when I met her. She told me that she was messenger delivering telegrams that their sons had died during WW2. She rode a white horse and was feared. The spirit of this woman was something else.

#124 Millmech on 01.17.18 at 8:46 pm

107 Ottawa Mike
I wonder if you buy $10,000 worth of beer now,in a year will the returns on the empties be worth more than the Bitcoin.Nortel at $123 buy $1000, buy $1000 of beer, in a year had more money in empty returns than what Nortel was worth.

#125 TheSecretCode on 01.17.18 at 8:49 pm

Outside of the two punch drunk markets of Vancouver/Victoria is Kelowna that speaks for some of the smaller areas who believe everything they watch on GlobalBC.

Kelowna RE agents are going with the standard price it 100k over the recent staggeringly high and flawed BC assessed values until there are absolutely no buyers showing up. They know it is coming and the delusional seller will be in denial for awhile. Only those who have to sell, will.

So, 800k for a typical detach in Kelowna right now.

– Highest city of second mortgage growth in all of Canada.

– Rates going up.

– B20 just kicked in.

– J. Horgan possibly doing something next month as the screaming in Vancouver rages on and the Greens start becoming much more popular.

If you enjoy being financially ruined be sure to go take on some unmanageable debt right now.

30% of Canadians on the brink right now.

Hang onto your wallet and get ready for some entertaining RE numbers this year.

#126 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 01.17.18 at 8:54 pm

Fake Happy Housing Crash Everyone! Post 96 and 86. At least you refer to those scum of the earth SHYSTERS as SHYSTERS.

#127 mathman on 01.17.18 at 9:01 pm

out of curiosity, spoke the [email protected] today about what I could qualify for under the new rules. Low and behold it is significantly less – B20 + tacking on excess spread for AMT > 25 years. In our discussion – she was extremely thorough and wanted to know assets and liabilities down to the penny. Said the bank is being ultra conservative and ratios and credit scores have to be within stated guidelines, no exceptions. My tenure with the bank, didn’t matter – it is back to responsible underwriting.

Absolute stark difference from this time last year when I got a pre-approval for an amount i would never in a million years borrow over the phone from e-MTG’s with nothing other than stating my and my spouses income. In the span of a year, I qualify for 300k less.

So what does this mean?

– agents steer folks to CU’s and Private Lenders to make sure they get qualified buyers?

Math

#128 Lorne on 01.17.18 at 9:04 pm

#1 IM in C on 01.17.18 at 4:44 pm
Big Price drop? Won’t happen, at least for homes under $1MM. First off, the banks won’t allow it. Secondly, people will simply sit on their homes and not sell like they have done in the past.
…..
Easy to say! And what about those who have to move due to a job? What do they do….they sell their house for what they can get because they need the $v to purchase something in their new location. As a result, this sale sets the new price for the neighbourhood….and on it goes!

#129 TheSecretCode on 01.17.18 at 9:12 pm

Shout out to Mike Martins – Mike Martin youtube pod cast…call in shows for your Q&A and bringing together the voices of the struggling working class of BC getting shafted by RE.

Simple discussions with an ear to the ground on the real struggle and the misinformation people have in BC right now.

For those who don’t know his story – he relocated out of Vancouver (like most of the Vancouver population these days) after being priced out and landed in Merritt, BC.

#130 tccontrarian on 01.17.18 at 9:14 pm

70 crdt on 01.17.18 at 6:52 pm

Here is an excerpt from a realtor soliciting business..

“I just want to let you know what’s happening in the Brookswood area in the last few months. Of the 15 development type properties (min 1.5 acres) currently for sale, 12 of those have come up in the last couple of months and 4 of these properties have already dropped the price they were originally listed at. There have only been 2 properties sold since the approval of the development plan and these sold substantially below list price.”
====================================

Now that the ‘punch-bowl’ is being slowly removed (ie. the low interest rates), the ‘party’ is beginning to fizzle out.
Somehow, this will be a ‘surprise’ to most people – an ‘inevitability’ to a few others, like me and you (and a few here on this blog).

My barber STILL thinks we’re ‘special’ here ’cause of the climate and foreign $$’s (and he actually said this on a cold, dreary, grey day).

TCC

#131 IHCTD9 on 01.17.18 at 9:17 pm

#89 To Jim #2 From No Fun Jim #1 on 01.17.18 at 7:37 pm
Thanks for your response, at least I am not the only one feeling like I’m not having any fun. Listen to your wife then, I don’t have a wife, but yours is probably right.

But if you do start spending (this hurts me just thinking about it) be responsible. Keep me updated if you start having too much fun.

My fun today was that I secretly cheered out loud when I heard the BoC raised rates (us saver need something to cheer about)!

All the best Jim
————

Jims: I live like you both. BUT, a couple years ago I splurged on a couple atvs. Now, my bland savers life is alive with colour and excitement. Plus I like to fish, cheap! AND since I fish from shore (boats are expensive) I get to meet a lot of new Canadians too.

Get a hobby and don’t be afraid to spend a little :)

#132 people buying crypto on 01.17.18 at 9:19 pm

https://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidthier/2018/01/16/i-just-lost-3000-investing-in-ripple-and-tron-and-its-a-dangerous-feeling/&refURL=https://www.google.ca/&referrer=https://www.google.ca/

—–
That link will get you in the minds of these idiots buying this crypto stuff. It’s basically taking a different way to crack people into a gambling addiction. Instead of your degenerate card player or sports bet player, they have gone after other forms of degenerates.

#133 YVRMC on 01.17.18 at 9:19 pm

My first mortgage was at 12.75% . We couldn’t afford to over extend ourselves mortgage wise . It turned out to be a blessing over time as rates dropped …. I’m not sure with the massive mortgages I hear young people are taking out for houses , where this will end up .

#134 Danny on 01.17.18 at 9:21 pm

Patricia Lovett Reid ..the CTV financial commentator said today that drop in real estate sales will hurt the economy because House sales made the Canadian economy healthy.

Can’t understand how real estate sales over the last number of years with unprecedented low mortgage rates which dove up the highest mortgage debt in history in Canada..really held up the economy ?

How does debt derived from a product that is losing value become good for an economy….especially when the high prices have been shackled to people who really will not be able to pay back at increasing interest rates and many will probably have to walk away by selling in the few years at a loss?

Does Patricia have a personal interest or connections in real estate?
Any thoughts?

#135 akashic record on 01.17.18 at 9:25 pm

Money was created as a matter of convenience to solve the unmanageable complexities of barter as the economy grew.

There are many prices we pay for convenience, one of the most expensive one lately is the nearly complete loss of privacy.

Anyway, the price of the money convenience is, as Garth put it: “the Central Banks iron grip”, that comes with the supreme power, monopolistic tyranny and insane profit of the executing banking and financial cartel.

Due to the necessary convenience of money, the iron grip executing branch is by-enlarge above the state and laws to serve their own self-interest, while facilitating the convenience.

Money, the convenience of barter, provided by the government with iron grip might be outdated though.

Blockchain, sophisticated network of programmable cryptos could create a tokenized abstraction layer of the original complex, unmanageable barter transactions and make it manageable, convenient again – without the need of the central banks convenience tool: money.

If products, services can be exchanged, bartered directly between individuals, organizations conveniently and efficiently on a decentralized infrastructure as cryptos, money as a tool of convenience would no longer be needed.

Neither central banks, iron grips, monetary policies, etc.

#136 ForRicher ForPoorer on 01.17.18 at 9:27 pm

So did anyone see the season premier episode of HGTV’s ‘Brian Inc’ earlier this week. It featured a newlywed couple who were thrilled with having purchased a 50+ year old nondescript pile in Milton for $200k over ask (apparently their offer trumped 22 others). They then proceed to invest a further $150k in a partial reno to bring it somewhat up to snuff……

#137 Oakville Sucks on 01.17.18 at 9:29 pm

How did Realtor “Prochenko”(SP?) get 77 sales in the entire GTA in the first 14 days of January?

I just checked Mongo House and according to them there were about 500 properties sold in the first few weeks.

What am I missing?

Detached sales in 416. – Garth

#138 Dobermanduke on 01.17.18 at 9:40 pm

#66 Felix on 01.17.18 at 6:48 pm

Today’s blog pic shows again that dogs are not only incredibly stupid, but really, really ugly.

I can’t even tell – are we looking at the rear end of a dumb pooch or the front end…?

(then again, it’s a pic either a few inches from sh*t or brains, the same value in dogs, so maybe it doesn’t matter!)

—————————————————————

Dogs, like people, require a consistent early education. I’ve had 3 dogs that would amaze people with their abilities. There are “stupid” dogs out there that could save your life one day in more ways than one.
Your generalization of dogs is laughable

#139 people buying crypto on 01.17.18 at 9:40 pm

This crypto thing is going to cause a real market crash. People still think they have money now. Lights will go out. This is going to be the straw that breaks the world.

#140 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 9:42 pm

The elites have it so rough.

Rupert Murdoch Injured in Yachting Accident
https://www.mediaite.com/online/rupert-murdoch-injures-back-in-yachting-accident/

#141 Wait There on 01.17.18 at 9:44 pm

Told my young moister millenial relatives at Christmas gathering that CBs will eventually kill Bitcoin et al. Had to explain that the very thing they want governments to do –redistribute income requires management of currencies and flows. Now get this, this same moister set wants goodies from Gov but don’t want Gov to collect taxes from them…hence why bitcoin is great.
Then there was a whiny one who could not understand why currencies in poor countries is worth so little. “That’s not fair”
These people vote?????? Yup. So we get T2 who will make the world perfect.

#142 Russ on 01.17.18 at 9:45 pm

Millennials are so cute at this stage.

http://dilbert.com/strip/2018-01-17

#143 Richard Thorncroft on 01.17.18 at 9:59 pm

#108 Retired Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 8:18 pm
#3 Crash
My stock tip for 2018: Cineplex, which is in a rut, but is certain to recover when ppl start going to movies again
*****************************************
Agreed! Almost bought it today (down another 2%) at at 5 year low, yielding 5%+. Worried they might cut the dividend, as they burn through cash retrofittibg cinemas into diversified entertainment complexes.
I think I’ll grab 100 shares at market open tomorrow, and hold on tight through the next year.
***********

“Hold on tight” ? Are you quoting the captain of the Edmund Fitzgerald when it hit a patch of bad weather?
A movie, popcorn and a drink for two versus six months of Netflix? Hard choices for the hard up millenials. What was the last movie worth watching at the cinema? Ladybird was a B+ at best (wife dragged me). Have you watched Mindhorn, by chance? Netflix is buying up all the good scripts and all the actors who aren’t dead in the water, like your 100 shares.

#144 When the Whip Comes Down on 01.17.18 at 10:01 pm

Poloz really shocked me with his words today. Pretty well stating he wants to protect the over indebted. “It’s a force acting on the economy that would prevent us from from getting interest rates all the way back to what people consider to be neutral”. Can you believe it? Let’s protect the irresponsible, give them a break until their incomes catch up and they can afford the payments on their bank loans in a higher rate environment. Sickening.

#145 Pete on 01.17.18 at 10:03 pm

#48 “VanMan”

What is wrong with you? You actually suggested banning “Happy Housing Crash Everyone!”? I would prefer we ban YOU and your lame analysis based on NOTHING!

#146 BTC on 01.17.18 at 10:05 pm

almost at 12k

what happened to the crash?

#147 Jon on 01.17.18 at 10:13 pm

How much will the interest rates rise in five years last Friday I locked 3.09 fixed what can I expect in five years to calculate future loan rate? 6 percent 4 percent that’s the question I would like to understand. I could easily handle 5 but if it was 8 I’d be scared. And a rise to 8 would equate to what kind of property drop five years from now?

#148 Smoking Man on 01.17.18 at 10:14 pm

#131 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 9:42 pm
The elites have it so rough.

Rupert Murdoch Injured in Yachting Accident
https://www.mediaite.com/online/rupert-murdoch-injures-back-in-yachting-accident/
….

So jealous of rich people. What a huge wieght to carry around all day.

Dudett, no idea what kind of shit teachers filled your head with but once you leave school not everyone gets a trophy.

Get over it and learn to make some loot yourself.

My reading and writing skills suck, has not me, 0.05% er.

#149 DON on 01.17.18 at 10:18 pm

#13 Mike on 01.17.18 at 5:05 pm

.
Just emailed Horgan that he is no different than corrupt Liberals. He is refusing banning foreign ownership.

Will call MLA and Horgan tomorrow. My email was bad……and rude.

Horgan is correct. Now try being rude to me. – Garth

****************

Yup…now were are blaming the guy that inherited a bloody mess. Wouldn’t want to blame the citizens who got wrapped up in greed and own multiple properties.

If he banned foreign ownership than you would characterize him as unfriendly to investment.

Get a grip…

#150 Souvereigninternational on 01.17.18 at 10:19 pm

“for cryptomaniacs or slanty-semi owners…..” bullion lickers get no love tonight, ha ha. Maybe a good sign for precious metals. I agree on Bitcoin. Crazy.

#151 Bob Loblaw on 01.17.18 at 10:22 pm

A Realtor friend of mine posted on Facebook today that the BOC rate when up by 1% from 0.25% to 1.25%. I commented that it was already at 1% and only went up 0.25% to 1.25%

He was sure I was wrong and said he’s go back and check the article he read to confirm.

Seriously? You’re a realtor and you didn’t even know what the BOC rate was? Isn’t that a key metric that everyone in the RE industry should know, especially since they’re advising clients on purchases where any movement to that rate is a critical consideration??

#152 n1tro on 01.17.18 at 10:29 pm

3 Crash on 01.17.18 at 4:55 pm

My stock tip for 2018: Cineplex, which is in a rut, but is certain to recover when ppl start going to movies again.
—–+———–
Seriously? What will motivate people to go to the movies more in 2018? The rise in minimum wage for 1 hour would barely cover the cost of an adult ticket. Plan on bringing a girl and be ready to drop over $30 for popcorn and drinks. People’s mortgage payments going up so to escape reality, they would go to the theatre? How about all the high def Blu ray rips found readily online? The quality of politically correct righteous screen plays? Maybe I’m wrong given I haven’t gone to the movies for about 5 years now.

#153 ben on 01.17.18 at 10:29 pm

Garth you have to throw out the trash.

First post:

> First off, the banks won’t allow it.

Has this guy been asleep over 2008?

#154 LivinLarge on 01.17.18 at 10:33 pm

“Well only 2 homes have sold in Kitchener in Januaray. Yes 2, so I think your friend/lawyer is feeding you some crap!”…hmm, I’ll take your word for it. He said deals and since it’s only the 17th maybe he only got them as clients this month, no idea. I’ve known him over 30 years and there is no reason to bs me.

#155 Jay on 01.17.18 at 10:40 pm

SCM: thank you for your valuable insight in regards to businesses and employee wages. The vast majority of business owners in Canada who create the majority of jobs in Canada are doing their best to survive and keep their employees working because we are dealing with countless government interventions that increase costs. I implore you to become a small business consultant so that you can show us the error of our ways so that we can pay our employees top dollar, stay in business in a globalized marketplace and provide for our families. Let us know when you are ready to quit your job and invest your life savings with no guarantee of financial security or financial return for your profound professional advice on how to run a successful business (hint: you need to make a profit to survive) while paying your employees a “fair living wage”. I’m all ears.
I dare you to try it.

#156 IHCTD9 on 01.17.18 at 10:55 pm

How many Canadians look forward to a trip out to the mailbox these days?

I visited mine yesterday. Among other things, there was a collection of envelopes from the bank stuffed in there. Personal line of credit, balance: $0.00. Visa bill, balance: $0.00. RRSP catch-up LOC, balance: $0.00. No mortgage statement because there’s no mortgage. No HELOC statement because I got cash.

I walked into the living room of my nothing special farm house and chucked the stack into the stove. I stood back and watched the big flames they made, then resisted the urge to wax philosophical and meditate on irony.

The free btu’s were most welcome. I am a Canadian who enjoys his mailbox trips.

#157 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 10:58 pm

Quebec’s minimum wage to increase to $12 in May
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-minimum-wage-increase-12-dollars-1.4490881

Higher wages for hard working Canadians are spreading.

BoomerCons must be pissed.

#158 DON on 01.17.18 at 11:04 pm

Are we now in the Denial stage? Tears are next!

#159 For the educated on 01.17.18 at 11:07 pm

Canadian Dollar fell today. Rates rises are done. We are at a top. Flat yield curve.

B20? Pfffft! Go to a credit union to beat stress test or get a 30 year mortgage with accelerated payments.

But lets go with the theme here. Doom and Gloom.

#160 For the educated on 01.17.18 at 11:08 pm

#151 n1tro on 01.17.18 at 10:29 pm
3 Crash on 01.17.18 at 4:55 pm

My stock tip for 2018: Cineplex, which is in a rut, but is certain to recover when ppl start going to movies again.
—–+———–
Seriously? What will motivate people to go to the movies more in 2018? The rise in minimum wage for 1 hour would barely cover the cost of an adult ticket. Plan on bringing a girl and be ready to drop over $30 for popcorn and drinks. People’s mortgage payments going up so to escape reality, they would go to the theatre? How about all the high def Blu ray rips found readily online? The quality of politically correct righteous screen plays? Maybe I’m wrong given I haven’t gone to the movies for about 5 years now.
——-

End of Net neutrality.

#161 For the educated on 01.17.18 at 11:09 pm

#145 BTC on 01.17.18 at 10:05 pm
almost at 12k

what happened to the crash?
—–

Anyone can create an alt coin

#162 IHCTD9 on 01.17.18 at 11:10 pm

#143 When the Whip Comes Down on 01.17.18 at 10:01 pm
Poloz really shocked me with his words today. Pretty well stating he wants to protect the over indebted. “It’s a force acting on the economy that would prevent us from from getting interest rates all the way back to what people consider to be neutral”. Can you believe it? Let’s protect the irresponsible, give them a break until their incomes catch up and they can afford the payments on their bank loans in a higher rate environment. Sickening
————

It’s also a little between the lines backup for some seriously frightening reports stating Canadians have made really big mistakes with money. Poloz has the best intel available at his disposal.

No worries, he won’t let cauliflower hit 10.00, he can’t, not happening. If inflation takes off, the broke homeowners go under the bus 100% guaranteed.

#163 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 01.17.18 at 11:24 pm

#48 VanMan

Most SHYSTERS here hate me. The problem is you hate the turth. You hate how everyone on this blog calls out the SHYSTERS and their lies. What keeps you slimy SHYSTERS up at night is the thought of what would happen if the masses became as smart as the people on Garths blog? It would mean the end of your useless industy. It would mean actually having to provide a useful service that has value. A sign in the ground and a basic website holds very little value . The made up stories/SHYSTER lies dont make up the difference.

#164 Balmuto on 01.17.18 at 11:26 pm

I’ve seen that Bitcoin chart floating around and I must say I’m not impressed. That chart would look very different on a logarithmic scale and going back to inception instead of a cherry-picked 3 year timeframe. Here’s what the proper chart looks like:

https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/price#lc

#165 Karma on 01.17.18 at 11:26 pm

#52 People are panicking on 01.17.18 at 6:24 pm
“Today there was absolute panic about this interest rate hike, the fear of people being stretched so thin. I cannot believe how close people are to the edge, it’s scary. The stories of people who are a hair away from going under. It’s worse than people think.“

—————————

Can I ask: what people are you talking a out? Are rhey your friends and family? What part of Canada do you and they reside? Are they old or young? Is it all due to residential debt or other consumer debt?

Context helps people understand what the problem is and how bad it is, and how it can apply to their lives.

Thanks in advance.

#166 rknusa on 01.17.18 at 11:28 pm

Re: Various economic models have shown that Canada will need carbon prices of $150 a tonne or more to meet the target of reducing emissions by 30 per cent below the 2005 level by 2030.

how will we afford to heat our million dollar homes

a ponzi economy if you ask me

#167 IHCTD9 on 01.17.18 at 11:29 pm

Confidence: Canadians ain’t got it. Leased luxury cars and parading around in a suit on the weekend. Sweating bullets while bidding up a damp GTA shack. Move in and HELOC the hell out of the place. Oblivious to their precarious financial position. Covetous of their neighbours, co-workers, family, even the random guy walking down the street. Another day, another round of brinkmanship, and doing the birds of paradise shuffle. Faking it. A collection of pompous magisterial goofballs drunk on consumption. Self worth measured in possessions, egos reinforced by luxury on loan from the bank.

We used to be smart.

#168 Victor V on 01.17.18 at 11:35 pm

Rate hike could shave 15-20% off home sales volume: Housing economist

https://www.bnn.ca/economics/video/rate-hike-could-shave-15-20-off-home-sales-volume-housing-economist%7E1305819

#169 The Home Moaner on 01.17.18 at 11:43 pm

Not sure how widely known this is but quantum computing will bring about the ability to solve the mathematical challenge that secures block chain encryption nearly instantly without iterating through the solution space. Today’s crypto miners basically brute-force iterate through the solution space hopinh to stumble on the answer (the more computing power you have, the more likely you are to come across a solution).

Blockchains are secured by the world’s inability to go back to the beginning and rewrite old transactions, it would take more computing power than anyone currently has, plus you have to race against new transactions as well. With quantum computers this road block goes away.

It will take several more years I think before anyone can demonstrate a proof of concept on a quantum computers in a lab, but cryotocurrencies were never the way of the future, they will all go to zero one day.

#170 Paddler on 01.17.18 at 11:43 pm

Garth who actually pays the banks posted rate? Everybody I know that has a mortgage has a discounted rate which we all know is approximatley 2% less than the posted one.

#171 Smoking Man on 01.18.18 at 12:02 am

#156 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 10:58 pm
Quebec’s minimum wage to increase to $12 in May
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-minimum-wage-increase-12-dollars-1.4490881

Higher wages for hard working Canadians are spreading.

BoomerCons must be pissed.
……

Good damn right I’m pissed. Bozze is dirt cheap in California and I’ve had a lot. Surfs up. 15 foot waves. Going surfing in the morning. Wish me luck.

#172 Man buns on 01.18.18 at 12:03 am

“BTC, on the other hand, is an investment in man buns.”

Best line in a while.

“Vancouver is still red hot”. 20% of the people who comment here are clueless.

#173 waiting on the westcoast on 01.18.18 at 12:08 am

#139 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 9:42 pm
“The elites have it so rough.

Rupert Murdoch Injured in Yachting Accident
https://www.mediaite.com/online/rupert-murdoch-injures-back-in-yachting-accident/

Dude(tte) – really??? Maybe if you put your supreme efforts into making money instead of promoting the virtues of a higher minimum wage, you too could be suffering from a car crash rather than a bicycle spill… ;-)

It is ok to want what others want… Demonstrate your value by going out and getting it for yourself…

I have really enjoyed some of your evidence-based posts (not that I agree with them but at least they are thought it) but unfortunately, dogma appears too close to your heart.

#174 Smartalox on 01.18.18 at 12:35 am

A Realtor friend of mine posted on FB looking for someone to buy her Tesla Model 3 assignment. I know that she hasn’t had a sale in months, and probably hasn’t set enough aside to pay her income tax bill, as she’s been living hand to mouth.

The CRA is going to have their work made easy: all they have to do is cut a deal with some of those agents that are in arrears, for info on clients who’ve flipped assignments, and properties for profits in the last five years.

Client confidentiality? Maybe for lawyers, but agents have no such code.

#175 NiceBeach on 01.18.18 at 12:54 am

We are just starting the “lost decade” for real estate with zero to negative price growth (effectively negative vs. inflation).

#176 Dolce Vita on 01.18.18 at 1:07 am

A lot of worried YVR RE pumpers in the Comments section today, all with their convincing “it’s different this time” stories.

Too funny. Not worth a rebuttal.

History repeats, even in YVR Camelot except this time, Merlin won’t be around to wave his magic wand and save you from the vagaries of basic RE economics (rates up, prices down) and of an overextended, debt ridden, rain soaked populace…which still outnumber the foreigners by at least 3:1.

April-May YVR & environs “Rut” aftermath:

-25%.

#177 gary smith on 01.18.18 at 1:11 am

And another about to flop in Delta-Scottsdale.

Purchased in April 2016 for 920,000
Listed (“updates!!”) for 938,800

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/7333-113-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1VkZENg==

#178 Deplorable Dude on 01.18.18 at 1:54 am

Hmmmm….going to the movies…

Will be a long time before I go to the movies again…..Hollywood…a bunch of patronising millionaire hypocrities covering up decades of sexual abuse in their industry while virtual signaling BS allegations at Trump.

Meanwhile they can’t seem to churn out anything beyond Crapola CGI superhero movies….

Made the mistake of going to the last StarWars movie over Xmas….ticks all the Feminist SJW diversity checkmarks…totally ruining the franchise. I won’t be watching the next one.

#179 Canada=Poor cousin of U.S on 01.18.18 at 2:05 am

https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/01/17/rising-mortgage-rates-unlikely-to-slow-down-hot-toronto-housing-market.html

#180 Mousey on 01.18.18 at 2:06 am

Re#2 Screwed CM
Instead of soda water for your churning bowels, why don’t you look at some of the archived pics of GT swanning around with a broom and paint brush at the the BF before it opened as the secret martini (and ice cream treats) hideout for elite Bay Streeters. What do you have against martinis anyway?

#181 Canada=Poor cousin of U.S on 01.18.18 at 2:21 am

Garth why dont you write a post on immigration impact on housing. the realtors keep using that as an argument to justify the prices. what about net immigration? is there a number? I think you should cover more about immig. in detail.

#182 juno on 01.18.18 at 4:25 am

.25 percent hike and Canadians are in a panic

A year ago RealEstate agents were bragging how rates will never go up, its the new norm and .25 will not hurt the market.

Now after 3 hikes that form near .25 people realize that that is a whopping 300% increase from the start. Add 2.00 percent for the stress test and boy an girls that is a whopping 800% hike or 1100% hike all together.

And the beauty of it is… It’s now time to renew.

Remember people you are only pawns in a rich mans game. Deal with it!

#183 Howard on 01.18.18 at 4:51 am

Tess Kalinowski of the Toronto, true to form, publishes this RE newsletter masquerading as journalism. I wonder if she owns a glass box downtown?

Rising mortgage rates unlikely to slow down hot Toronto housing market : https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/01/17/rising-mortgage-rates-unlikely-to-slow-down-hot-toronto-housing-market.html

#184 Howard on 01.18.18 at 5:03 am

#151 n1tro on 01.17.18 at 10:29 pm

3 Crash on 01.17.18 at 4:55 pm

My stock tip for 2018: Cineplex, which is in a rut, but is certain to recover when ppl start going to movies again.
—–+———–
Seriously? What will motivate people to go to the movies more in 2018? The rise in minimum wage for 1 hour would barely cover the cost of an adult ticket. Plan on bringing a girl and be ready to drop over $30 for popcorn and drinks. People’s mortgage payments going up so to escape reality, they would go to the theatre? How about all the high def Blu ray rips found readily online? The quality of politically correct righteous screen plays? Maybe I’m wrong given I haven’t gone to the movies for about 5 years now.

———————————

Maybe for the same reason vinyl and CDs are making a comeback. Streaming everything to the small screen, like streaming music to one’s phone, leaves one wanting after a while. Some of us actually enjoy sitting through 15 minutes of previews.

Last Friday I went to see Darkest Hour, the new Churchill biopic. First time going to a movie theatre in a good 3-4 years. I enjoyed the experience so much I may well get a monthly pass. I don’t know whether I’m a one-off or part of a trend.

#185 Another Deckchair on 01.18.18 at 5:54 am

@154 Jay

SCM is one of those “Big hat, no cattle” guys – all talk and no knowledge.

Ignore her.

I’m sure we’ve all met people telling you how to do this and that, but hand them a screwdriver to actually do something, and they go all quiet, because they’ve never actually held a screwdriver…

#186 down_boy on 01.18.18 at 6:31 am

I dunno about stocks. It’s hard to find a co to invest in that doesn’t have Sauron at the helm. And a diversified basket of polluters doesn’t sit well either. All to be part of some global consumption machine. Too many people are worried about what they can get, not what they can give… I think I’ll invest in my community. Sponsor some schools and clinics, start some ergonomic businesses, employ some locals. I think I’ll work on my rep at home, maybe start a shoppe or a boutique where people can spend their cherry blossom shopper coupons. Maybe we can trade with some other likeminded communities. Feels Canadian. Feels like the road ahead.

#187 Penny Henny on 01.18.18 at 7:15 am

From the Toronto Star, from their creative writing department (fake news).
https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/01/17/rising-mortgage-rates-unlikely-to-slow-down-hot-toronto-housing-market.html

Funny stuff!

In other news. Bitcoin UP 15% in one day!!

#188 ANON on 01.18.18 at 7:24 am

#11 Kyle Griffin on 01.17.18 at 5:04 pm
Ha by the time you finished your martini the whole crypto market cap was up 150 billion from low.

Then it should be no problem. Although one can only wonder why that was a sudden problem at a much bigger market “cap”. Was it lost? Someone stole it? I mean, the “cap” was there, right? I propose a reddit for a search party or posse. I can’t participate, since I think it was never there, but I’ll check regularly for entertainment purposes.

#189 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.18.18 at 7:31 am

@#156 SCM
“Higher wages for hard working Canadians are spreading.

BoomerCons must be pissed.
>>>>>>>

Trolling again I see.

I could care less about $12/hr wages in Quebec.

P.S. Refer to then as Quebecois not Canadians as they prefer to ignore the truth and pretend they’re “different” , a “nation” unto themselves……. like you.

#190 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.18.18 at 7:35 am

@#154 Jay

Re SCM and the real world.
“I dare you to try it”.
++++++

Nah, she’d rather sit on the fence and tell everyone else how they should invest their life savings, how to run their business, how to be socially responsible and make a profit…….its so much easier that way.

#191 Asterix1 on 01.18.18 at 7:37 am

How can this “article” even be considered professional, let alone legal.

PAPER: Toronto Star
TITLE: Rising mortgage rates unlikely to slow down hot Toronto housing market

The entire article is based on the quotes and ‘opinions” from Tom Storey, sales representative for Royal LePage Signature Realty.

THIS IS INSANE! TORONTO STAR, YOU HAVE ZERO CREDIBILITY!

#192 Trevor on 01.18.18 at 7:43 am

But I thought BTC was dead Garth? If you are going to continue to cherry pick the drops, it would be beneficial for you to note when the entire crypto market rises by multiples! Yes buying at the top of any run is foolish but there is plenty of money to be made yet. BTC has been declared dead 236 times since 2010! After CEO Jamie Dimon declared it “a fraud” last September it quadrupled! If banks continue to rig rates (LIBOR – Banks like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Chase, UBS, Citigroup, Bank of America, and the Royal Bank of Scotland ) and Banks like Wells Fargo who create FAKE accounts in customers names to sign them up for unwanted insurance policies, then the rise in cryptos (a digital ledger of ALL transactions) will continue. It would be interesting if you started writing about these topics as well.

#193 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.18.18 at 7:50 am

@#139 SCM
“The elites have it so rough….”
+++++

No, no they dont.
Just ask Ivanka Trump’s personal toenail attendant.

I’m sure Rupert Murdoch, with his strained muscles, has the best healthcare, the best massuese, and one of the best yachts on the planet where he can drink the best martinis, with the best olives, mixed by the best bartender money can buy.

Fortunately….you’ll never experience that life other than, if you’re extremely lucky grovelling, as a minimum wage serf down in the yacht galley sweating over some menial job for Mr Murdoch….scrub harder for your oligarch….he’s earned it, you havent.

#194 MaxBerniersShorts on 01.18.18 at 8:00 am

Windsor real estate seems to be on fire but Garth won’t like why:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/a-housing-tale-of-two-cities-think-foreign-buyers-tax-doesnt-matter-thinkagain/article37654044/

#195 NoName on 01.18.18 at 8:02 am

#162 Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

…What keeps you slimy SHYSTERS up at night is the thought of what would happen if the masses became as smart as the people on Garths blog?…

I am assuming you are referring to us, “geniuses in the steerage section”. I would like mayor of Milton to clarify this one for me.

#196 Steven Rowlandson on 01.18.18 at 8:03 am

So BTC was a roulette game. Pure specking. The outcome never in question. Get out.

Right on the money Garth.

#197 Shethat on 01.18.18 at 8:16 am

#105 Jaguar – as a newly minted ‘landlord’ we feel pretty unlordly. We bought everything we could because every house was gorgeous, downtown and had great income potential at the below 200k each price. Houses are still selling now at double the cost (i know because we just sold another)- so we sink our profits right back into more units under one roof. We will live modestly with income on 2 houses and 6 units – located downtown and with a happy lifestyle, no excess. We count ourselves very lucky to have found investments that returned approx 2000% – remembering we only put down between %10-%35 on each one. Certainly no get rich scheme as we are in it for the long haul – did sell 2 of them to build a new one. No one is more surprised than us about the quantum leap our lives have taken re income and hard work fixing these Victorians up – but we will happily take income properties over a ‘real job’ that can evaporate suddenly vs rental/everyone needs a place to live. (Downtown, close to hospitals, close to jobs etc) we are just poor labourers with no B.A. or any other letters after our names – thankful for the opporunities we’ve been given. Like any gift, you actually have to open it to receive . i.e. Go for it – that seens to be the only difference. Of course we aren’t buying now – just paying down everything and battening down the hatches for what i believe will be an economically bumpy ride in CA.

#198 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.18.18 at 8:22 am

To climate change deniers……

Will Capetown South Africa be the first major city in the world to run out of water?
By April 22, 2018?

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-01-17-capewatergate-as-fake-news-flows-real-photos-show-droughts-effect-on-dams/?utm_source=RecommendWidget

#199 maxx on 01.18.18 at 8:25 am

“The difference between equities and Bitcoin is that stocks actually represent an ownership stake in companies making money.”

Priced in real money.

It occurs to me that one of the attractions of BTC is that it’s perfect for the average Millennial – RATM, anti-establishment and anti-boomer.

The irony is that, in the race to buy, make a pile and beat other contenders in the profit game, they’re engaging in the very behaviour they profess to deplore in boomers. Same deal for housing and a seemingly uncontrollable FOMO.

They despise boomers because of their “unfair” wealth and advantages. Boomers grew up mostly in high rate environments, causing them to eschew debt and save more. Canada used to be a global saving powerhouse – not any more.

Were the petit potheads to analyze the landscape more closely, they’d come to realize that boomers aren’t the cause of their so-called problems; central banks are.

All economic behaviour flows from what cb poobahs get up to. The rest is simply human nature.

#200 LivinLarge on 01.18.18 at 8:53 am

“Add 2.00 percent for the stress test and boy an girls that is a whopping 800% hike or 1100% hike all together.”…it may feel like it or even smell like it but that’s not how this “qualifying at a higher rate” works. It is exactly the same as if all lenders collectively agreed to simultaneously change their debt service ratios to qualify for a loan. Doing it that way would be an illegal conspiracy but when ordered by the feds it becomes legal.

Effectively it just reduces the value of home you can qualify to buy with your particular downpayment you aren’t paying more interest, you simply qualify for a less expensive home. So, it is designed to moderate house price inflation and at least on the surface it “should” do exactly that. Will it? Damned if I or likely anyone else knows until the sales numbers for at least 6 months are tallied up. There always seems to be creative minds who can come up with a “work around”, faster than Apple with an OS flaw, if the incentive is high enough.

#201 Ian on 01.18.18 at 9:02 am

The pot stocks are a giant short too. Let’s call it the ‘green Bitcoin’.

It’s been a while since I looked at their fundamentals, so just now I took a look at Canopy’s numbers:

1) $22mln in operating cash flow loss in the six months to September 2017

2) $52mln in loss adjustments to ‘biological assets’

3) Market cap of $6.2 BILLION on revenue of $33mln in six months to September last year. So probably around 90 times revenue for the current fiscal year

This is a commodity business (Warren Buffet main avoid rule) and will never have pricing power to make money.

This thing is a giant bag of poo waiting to explode. As soon as the graphs break down in these, they should be shorted nonstop.

Speaking of things that don’t belong in a real portfolio…

#202 Tater on 01.18.18 at 9:17 am

#49 Mark on 01.17.18 at 6:16 pm
Back-of-the-envelope math:

An ETF tracking the TSX60 index pays out a yield of approximately 2.66%.

A Canadian broker lends for 2.25%.

The dividend tax credit is worth approximately 25% in terms of taxes paid.

2.66% / ( 1 – 25%) = 3.54% pre-tax.

Thus, 3.54% / 2.25% = 157%.

The TSX index thus can go up 57% and still be a cash-flow positive investment. Assuming that dividends remain constant, and assuming that Poloz is done with rates at current levels.

The implied TSX level = 25,600. So roughly what the Dow is these days.
—————————————————————-
This is an incredibly simplistic analysis that doesn’t take into account the difference in composition between the Dow and the TSX. Perhaps investors require a higher yield to justify investing in an unbalanced index in a small country with limited global impact?

#203 PRR Q1 Class 2'CB2' on 01.18.18 at 9:18 am

Hey Garth –

I think I spotted a typo –

‘Repeated will be a pattern most Canadians never understand: when prices rise sellers retreat, worried about buying into a rising market even when they could maximize profits.’

Shouldn’t that be ‘SELLING into a rising market’? It would make more sense.

Cheers,

= D =

Nope. Folks don’t sell because they fear buying. – Garth

#204 Victor V on 01.18.18 at 9:25 am

https://www.bnn.ca/we-re-going-to-have-some-issues-money-manager-warns-on-fallout-from-higher-rates-1.971603

Poloz later put highly indebted Canadians on notice, urging them to brace their finances for even higher rates.

“I don’t think Canadians misunderstand debt,” he told BNN in an exclusive interview.

“I think people need to be thinking about what would 100 basis points or 150 basis points [mean for them]. … And then be prepared because if you think about it and prepare for it, I think it will be okay.”

#205 I am with stupid on 01.18.18 at 9:27 am

The economy is roaring, jobs are plenty, oil is going up.
hell, even gold is going up.

But, but…

People can no handle .25 % interest rate increases from a rock bottom level (it stayed there for 9 years!), we just got the 1st one since the rates were cut (the prior 2 ‘increases’ were to compensate the 2 emergency cuts due to oil prices decline 2 years ago, now that oil is going up again these are simply reversed).

Right after this 1st increase the BOC boss made it clear not to expect further increases unless something extraordinary happens (i.e. inflation shows up)

Of course it is all fake, inflation has been around at 6-8 % yearly levels – inflation in assets prices, housing, gas, food, all important stuff not included in the ‘official’ CPI index.

Of course the public is that stupid as not to realize that and to keep counting their ‘gains’ on the stock market,
in home prices while paying higher taxes on imaginary gains and appreciation and accepting negative interest rates on their savings (while paying 20-30 % interest on their credit card loans) and suffering net decline in wages despite higher tax breaks (wild bill will not increase you tax breaks due to inflation, he is here to milk you to death for the benefits of his rich friends on bay street)

We. the gullible, the stupid.

As a result the loonie tanks right after these token increases as the world’s investors are not that stupid as to invest in crappy currencies as markets.

So you have TSX reporting 1/3 of the Dow gains.
Even emerging markets go up faster.

This trend will strengthen further despite the coming boom in commodities.

The note to remember: stay far away from loonie and CAD priced assets.

#206 SCD on 01.18.18 at 9:46 am

SCM-You need to do a little more research about socialism. It is not such a wonderful thing for society. Some of the worst crimes against humanity have been committed under these communist/socialist societies. The rights and freedoms of citizens trampled over. The freedoms we enjoy in Canada should never be taken for granted. A government that is big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take away everything you have.

#207 I am with stupid on 01.18.18 at 9:48 am

More brainwashing of the stupid:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-mortgages-interest-rate-hike-205335245.html

A: With the interest rate increase, debt becomes more and more expensive. Before you do anything, you have to understand what kind of debt you have to start with.

We have good types of debt and bad types. Good types can include any investment that is made to contribute to progressing your future. For example, a student loan is a good type of loan because you are investing in your ability to make more money. At the same time, debt you have from real estate or your primary residence is considered a good type of debt because you’re accumulating equity.

—————————
Keep piling on the good debt, sheeple!

Of course you may never find a well paid job as to justify that student debt or your house can depreciate 3 times in a housing bust, but hey, don’t forget:
It is all good (we tell you that and you obey)!

#208 Midnight's on 01.18.18 at 9:50 am

Good read on Canadian and Austrian housing markets.
https://www.macrovoices.com/guest-content/list-guest-publications/1503-josh-steiner-hedgeye-slide-deck-macrovoices-january-11-2018/file

#209 Ian on 01.18.18 at 10:00 am

Childcare costs have risen 24% in Ontario since the minimum wage increase, hitting many people who can least afford it. That stat is for the Mark / Deflation Crowd, and SCM who believes in ‘fairness’.

#210 Musty Basement Dweller on 01.18.18 at 10:07 am

Good to see that the scale of foreign money in Vancouver is finally being officially recognized for what it is. Let’s see what happens after February 20th. So tired of all of this head scratching about why Vancouver real estate prices don’t make sense. It’s much more than low interest rates here.
http://www.cbc.ca/1.4490512

#211 Ole Doberman on 01.18.18 at 10:13 am

#72 Guy in Calgary on 01.17.18 at 6:55 pm

The overextended in the West are beginning to get caught with their pants down. Some people just have no self control.

I blame the education system. Teach people basic personal finance in school. At least then they don’t have an excuse.
——————————————————-
thats only part of it, the bigger half is self esteem and discipline.

#212 n1tro on 01.18.18 at 10:16 am

#183 Howard on 01.18.18 at 5:03 am
#151 n1tro on 01.17.18 at 10:29 pm
3 Crash on 01.17.18 at 4:55 pm
My stock tip for 2018: Cineplex, which is in a rut, but is certain to recover when ppl start going to movies again.
———————————
Maybe for the same reason vinyl and CDs are making a comeback. Streaming everything to the small screen, like streaming music to one’s phone, leaves one wanting after a while. Some of us actually enjoy sitting through 15 minutes of previews.
Last Friday I went to see Darkest Hour, the new Churchill biopic. First time going to a movie theatre in a good 3-4 years. I enjoyed the experience so much I may well get a monthly pass. I don’t know whether I’m a one-off or part of a trend.
—————
I don’t think CDs are coming back, but I see your point with vinyl. However, compared to where vinyl was, there is a huge drop to go for theatres before they would come back.

As for streaming onto a small screen, I’m not talking about Netflix junk. I’m referring to the +5gb 1080p blu ray rips available on newsgroups that are streamed on+60″ home entertainment systems commercial free.

The fact you enjoy your recent experience at the movies is great. The fact you are buying a monthly pass is more evidence profits won’t be the same for Cineplex and that is priced into its stock price.

#213 SimplyPut7 on 01.18.18 at 10:17 am

Toronto was the only Canadian city that was shortlisted for Amazon HQ2.

What do you have to say for yourself now, you “world-class” Canadian cities with your ridiculous housing prices that are higher than the cities in the US that were shortlisted by Amazon?

https://www.bnn.ca/toronto-only-canadian-city-to-make-shortlist-for-amazon-s-hq2-1.971695

#214 Ian on 01.18.18 at 10:19 am

Cineplex. OK here we go…

One of the worst charts I’ve seen. Even if you like this stock, why you would buy into this chart I would never understand.

Fundamentals: box office revenue down 11.2% in the three months year over year to September. Margins collapsing.

Operating cash flow only positive because of depreciation. Shareholders’ equity down 5.4% year over year.

Buy this thing at your own risk…

#215 Tater on 01.18.18 at 10:21 am

#153 LivinLarge on 01.17.18 at 10:33 pm
“Well only 2 homes have sold in Kitchener in Januaray. Yes 2, so I think your friend/lawyer is feeding you some crap!”…hmm, I’ll take your word for it. He said deals and since it’s only the 17th maybe he only got them as clients this month, no idea. I’ve known him over 30 years and there is no reason to bs me.
—————————————————————-
You go the lawyer to sign the closing docs, its usually a couple of months after the deal is initially signed. So, if he’s busy it reflects deals done in November and December.

#216 Smoking Man on 01.18.18 at 10:28 am

#190 Asterix1 on 01.18.18 at 7:37 am
How can this “article” even be considered professional, let alone legal.

PAPER: Toronto Star
TITLE: Rising mortgage rates unlikely to slow down hot Toronto housing market

The entire article is based on the quotes and ‘opinions” from Tom Storey, sales representative for Royal LePage Signature Realty.

THIS IS INSANE! TORONTO STAR, YOU HAVE ZERO CREDIBILITY!
…….

Only people suffering from various mental disorders read the Toronto Star.

Zero action on its Twitter feed. I get more comments and I’m a nothing.

#217 I am with stupid on 01.18.18 at 10:29 am

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-mortgages-interest-rate-hike-205335245.html

And they refer to ‘saving’, not investing in TFSA and RESP.

Illiterate incompetent idiots who give you financial advises.

My question to GT: Is that legal/the distribution of such articles?

This is wrong by nature – clearly incompetent people give us wrong advice (to ‘save’ money in strongly negative real interest rates conditions) that will hurt you financially and that without any disclaimer!

Qualifying real estate debt and educational debt as good?

This is some series stuff that should not be taken lightly.

#218 paul on 01.18.18 at 10:33 am

90 Asterix1 on 01.18.18 at 7:37 am

How can this “article” even be considered professional, let alone legal.

PAPER: Toronto Star
TITLE: Rising mortgage rates unlikely to slow down hot Toronto housing market

The entire article is based on the quotes and ‘opinions” from Tom Storey, sales representative for Royal LePage Signature Realty.

THIS IS INSANE! TORONTO STAR, YOU HAVE ZERO CREDIBILITY!
—————————————————————–
I have been an agent for 30 years, Tom and The Star are full of it,

#219 SimplyPut7 on 01.18.18 at 10:38 am

My vote for Amazon HQ2 is Raleigh, North Carolina (Toronto won’t win Democrats and GOP would hate that high-paying jobs went to Canada)

For the listing below in Raleigh, NC the estimated mortgage is $658 a month. There are condos in Toronto with maintenance fees higher than that.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Raleigh-NC/2095149869_zpid/54047_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/36.160607,-78.132706,35.414236,-79.121476_rect/9_zm/2_p/

#220 paul on 01.18.18 at 10:42 am

#173 Smartalox on 01.18.18 at 12:35 am

A Realtor friend of mine posted on FB looking for someone to buy her Tesla Model 3 assignment. I know that she hasn’t had a sale in months, and probably hasn’t set enough aside to pay her income tax bill, as she’s been living hand to mouth.

The CRA is going to have their work made easy: all they have to do is cut a deal with some of those agents that are in arrears, for info on clients who’ve flipped assignments, and properties for profits in the last five years.

Client confidentiality? Maybe for lawyers, but agents have no such code.
—————————————————————–
Wake up C.R.A. knows all the transactions its public record. Hate to break it to you I and others pay income tax a source.

#221 LivinLarge on 01.18.18 at 10:43 am

“Nope. Folks don’t sell because they fear buying. – Garth”…exactly. I thought that sell/buy was a typo initially until I realized that most people selling a house are also contemplating buying another one in a chain and that second half of the chain controls the entire process.

A good example of why we have to look at all the variables and components when contemplating financial decisions. Fixating on one mathematical calculation in a decision system with multiple variables will always distort the end result to the point of being invalid.

Solving equations with more than a single variable requires a significantly greater math skill than simple algebra or arithmetic.

There was a wonderful example here a couple of weeks ago when the rationale for taking CPP at 60 vs 65 was explained by Fearless Leader yet many folks disputed his advice to take it at 60. The “simple” arithmetic was what so many folks became fixated on while totally ignoring the real life variables like the actuarial reality that a real proportion of us are simply going to die between 60 & 65 thus throwing away what we could have received in those years and invested too.

So? While single calculations are generally easy to make, sooooo much of life is not fixed and simple enough to make valid decisions using single variable calculations. There are just too many “what if” complications.

This is why hiring an advisor who has a significant time in the game is critical. If nothing else, they’ve had the time and experience to have made the calulations for multiple scenarios multiple times and can objectively evaluate the results in real life.

#222 I am with stupid on 01.18.18 at 10:46 am

Liberals bringing ‘skilled’ workers to Canada:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/foreign-workers-sleeping-burger-king-200834685.html

No, these, are not slaves but high value added jobs in the food industry, and I am sure these 4 people sharing one room and paying $ 400 dollars per month each are getting the luxury accommodation justified by such cost and are truly appreciating the opportunity that our democratic and free society is presenting to them.

#223 Victor V on 01.18.18 at 10:54 am

Going to be some interesting refi conversations for people with 1 year loans that purchased a house in the GTA in Q1 or Q2 2017.

https://twitter.com/DonutShorts/status/946455318535593984

#224 Cointards celebrate! on 01.18.18 at 10:55 am

Now it’s only down 40% instead of 50%!

#225 Stan Brooks on 01.18.18 at 11:06 am

Nice piece of socialist propaganda.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/why-a-15-minimum-wage-is-good-for-business/

#226 For those about to flop... on 01.18.18 at 11:31 am

#176 gary smith on 01.18.18 at 1:11 am
And another about to flop in Delta-Scottsdale.

Purchased in April 2016 for 920,000
Listed (“updates!!”) for 938,800

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/7333-113-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1VkZENg==

////////////////////////

Thanks Gazza, I will put in in the Pink Folder.

Not much is selling…

M43BC

#227 NoOneOfConsequence on 01.18.18 at 11:40 am

Bitcoin and the rest get bashed here…but there is one thing you CAN bank on.

The blockchain technology is a real thing – distributed ledgers are the future of transaction processing. While the crypto currencies may or may not stick around, don’t kid yourself….blockchain (and variants) is here to stay.

If you consider yourself an investor, you should be educating yourself on blockchain and the ramifications for the future.

Distributed Ledgers. Think about it.

#228 oncebittwiceshy on 01.18.18 at 11:50 am

#169 Paddler on 01.17.18 at 11:43 pm
“Garth who actually pays the banks posted rate? Everybody I know that has a mortgage has a discounted rate which we all know is approximatley 2% less than the posted one.”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Paddler, ingenue or real estate shark. Who knows, but, let me help you out.

It doesn't matter what the rate paid is, it is the rate qualified for that matters. The stress test forces every new buyer to qualify at the banks 5yr posted rate + 2% or the B.O.C. qualifying rate … whichever is higher. That will take a significant cut out of every market.

Now, Paddler, the most interesting aspect might be how many of those renewals are people trying to refinance their lavish spending over the last 5 years.

It’s quite possible that a good percentage of these people are actually refinancing a higher mortgage or similar size mortgage that they took out 5 years ago when they didn’t have to deal with a stress test.

Refinancing triggers the OSFI stress test. Oooops

#229 LivinLarge on 01.18.18 at 11:52 am

Now to add a little positive news to the fear and loathing.

Bank share prices are on a real upward tear after the rate increase yesterday. Apparently the rate increase wasn’t already fully priced in by Tuesday.

Yes, yes, yes, I know the prices are going to fall back some time in the near future but the only concern is “how much they will appreciate before correcting” and then “how much will they correct?”.

One bank isn’t even quite at their 52 week high from Feb 2017.

#230 IHCTD9 on 01.18.18 at 11:54 am

104 Nonplused on 01.17.18 at 8:03 pm

The effect is going to be the same as sin taxes on tobacco and alcohol. Demand will drop. It has to, because the people that rely the most on minimum wage labor don’t have all that much more money to pay the extra costs themselves. They will have to cut back on consumption, even if it means quitting their job because they just can’t afford daycare anymore.
_______________________

We’ve already seen at least two high profile examples of negative repercussions due to the minimum wage increases. Of course, the white knuckled SJW’s are much more concerned about demonizing the businesses that had to make adjustments rather than helping those who were affected.

That’s because the SJW’s don’t give a rip about helping poor folks – they just want to attack those whom they hate – in this case, those who they perceive as “rich”. They self initiate not when folks are in need, but rather when an opportunity arises to attack the groups they dislike. Any “help” offered by SJW’s ends at their touch screens. They’ll scream on twitter all day, just don’t ask them to put on a pair of boots and gloves to lend a helping hand.

Other effects of super high sin taxes were the rise of contraband tobacco, tax free tobacco inside FNR’s, craft beer, mini breweries, and brew your own. All these developments were unintended, and they collectively pounded government revenues into the ground from where they would be today otherwise.

It took 20 years to fully evolve, but here we are: Now a 26’er of Rum costs 27.50 at the LC while you can get a 40oz’er of the same stuff south of the border for 21.00. A pack of 25 Players is 14.00 at the corner store, while a carton of 200 on the reserve is 12.00.

High cost labour will follow the same route. We can now expect more undocumented labour, more black market labour, more outsourcing, more automation, and many more TFW’s.

The unintended, yet blatantly obvious consequences.

#231 Classical Liberal on 01.18.18 at 11:56 am

I need a new side hustle to supplement my income. Anyone got any suggestions? My current hustle is a CASH gig, I’m open to going legit to help pay for SCM’s social engineering projects.

#232 spoke with a real estate agent on 01.18.18 at 12:09 pm

yesterday

asked about our slow grind downward or a crash. Probing

he felt there will be no crash, prices have dropped significantly already and that condos continue to rise and remain a ‘good investment’

$500,000 for a 600 sq foot box is a ‘good investment’?

TAKE CRAZY ELSEWHERE

#233 AB Boxster on 01.18.18 at 12:28 pm

#156 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.17.18 at 10:58 pm

Higher wages for hard working Canadians are spreading.

BoomerCons must be pissed.

————————————————

The difference between Boomercons and MillennialCommies is that Boomercons just adjust while MillennialCommies just whine.

So as the price of the minimum wage is passed through to consumers, I’ll just spend less on things like eating out. And I will not tip as much to servers.

As the government idiots have continued to raise taxes through their absurd carbon tax virtue signalling, I have responded by contributing less to charities.

Only so much money to go around and cutting ‘discretionary’ spending goes first.

So, too bad if restaurants fail, and servers lose their jobs as people spend less. Or if charities suffer and the poor, or good causes go underfunded, because people have less to contribute.

And Millennials will then have more to whine about.

#234 For those about to flop... on 01.18.18 at 12:29 pm

Gary smith 12:03 am
For those about to flop- this is my homage to you.

Ladner, BC. Go back to another dreary, wet spring day. Visited an open house, which was the second day of the listing. Boxy 1960s era garbage, with little updating and mearly a carport to keep the Kia-all for 1.1. Worst of the lot, and cheapest available SFH.

Realtor asks me, “are you ready to make an offer? One has already been submitted.”

___________________________________________
5295 CHAMBERLAYNE AVENUE, Delta, British Columbia V4K4C3
January 2018-listed for 1,098,000
July 2017-sold for 1,028,000

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1VlkzMg==

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/5295-chamberlayne-avenue

//////////////////////

Hey Gazza , I just realized you had already written myself twice before on the previous thread.

I appreciate the help.

You realize all the Pink Snow work is for free right?

Well, actually some home owners are going to pay…

M43BC

#235 AJM on 01.18.18 at 12:29 pm

#133 Danny on 01.17.18 at 9:21 pm
Patricia Lovett Reid ..the CTV financial commentator said today that drop in real estate sales will hurt the economy because House sales made the Canadian economy healthy.

Can’t understand how real estate sales over the last number of years with unprecedented low mortgage rates which dove up the highest mortgage debt in history in Canada..really held up the economy ?

How does debt derived from a product that is losing value become good for an economy….especially when the high prices have been shackled to people who really will not be able to pay back at increasing interest rates and many will probably have to walk away by selling in the few years at a loss?

Does Patricia have a personal interest or connections in real estate?
Any thoughts?

///////////

Allow me a metaphor:

Guy gets shot; adrenaline starts pumping and enables him scale a wall and stagger around the block; where he collapses.

Would Patricia Lovett Reid suggest that adrenaline made this poor bastard healthy?

#236 Jeff on 01.18.18 at 12:31 pm

My great grandfather was a banker. The mortgage rate was 5%. Duration and amount didn’t matter it was just 5% in England. When my great grandfather emigrated to Canada the rate was 7% due to the high risk of a new country. Rates didn’t used to change.

#237 IHCTD9 on 01.18.18 at 12:48 pm

#224 Stan Brooks on 01.18.18 at 11:06 am
Nice piece of socialist propaganda.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/why-a-15-minimum-wage-is-good-for-business/
________________

I agree that consumer spending drives the economy, and that you might think a min wage hike will increase the spending because folks will go ahead and spend it.

But what if they’ve already spent it? Like if they are already in debt up to their eyeballs. Looks to me like Canadians are no stranger to piles of long term debt as it is.

Will the higher wages for some mean more spending, or knocking down their debts instead? Will higher wages for some just mean even more debt – which means the increased wages will just go to the big banks in the form of interest payments – leaving nothing for the local economy – just like it is right now.

I’ve got big issues with the assertion that minimum wages “build the economy from the bottom up”.

#238 Victor V on 01.18.18 at 12:50 pm

Macquarie Capital says the BoC rate-hiking cycle is already the most severe in 20 years and further increases will have far graver consequences than conventional analysis shows

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadians-unprecedented-debt-levels-prompts-macquarie-to-warn-on-rate-hikes

The unprecedented rise in consumer debt means the Bank of Canada’s rate-hiking cycle is already the most severe in 20 years and further increases will have far graver consequences than conventional analysis shows, Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd. said.

Assuming just one further rate rise, the impact would be 65 per cent to 80 per cent as severe as the 1987 to 1990 cycle, according to Macquarie, which took into account five-year bond yields, household debt and home buying. Canada’s housing market slumped in the early 1990s after that rate-hike cycle and a recession.

#239 MF on 01.18.18 at 1:11 pm

#232 AB Boxster on 01.18

A little harsh.

There are tons of us millennials working 6-7 days a week trying to adapt to the current environment.

Difference is you don’t hear from us.

My advice: resist the urge to feed the troll. Let’s keep talking about real estate and stocks. The ageism is tiring.

MF

#240 For those about to flop... on 01.18.18 at 1:19 pm

Since Paul the realtor is on here twiddling his thumbs ,I might as well put him to work.

Can you tell me what these December sales in Vancouver went for?

Paul ,do you accept this Ice Puckered Challenge…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/1772-55-street

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/6626-inverness-street

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/11231-64a-avenue

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/3041-noel-drive

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/9551-kirkmond-crescent

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2316-w-21st-avenue

https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/2355-panorama-drive

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/6020-malvern-avenue

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2306-w-12th-avenue

https://www.zolo.ca/port-coquitlam-real-estate/3550-pearkes-place

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2993-w-21st-avenue

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/5540-windsor-street

#241 aa5 on 01.18.18 at 1:27 pm

In BC the NDP are finally getting it now that they are in power. For example, the government could put in place confiscatory taxes.. but then industry would go elsewhere.

And the NDP were still ok with that, but then it was added, without industry BC wouldn’t have $48 billion a year in provincial government revenues, the lions share of which goes to government employees.

Just a $2 billion loss in gov revenues(-4%) would mean the NDP would have to let go of 12,000 gov employees making an average total compensation of $150k per year.

#242 yorkville renter on 01.18.18 at 1:30 pm

PRO TIP – any “investment” that costs you money each month to float isn’t an investment, but is an expense.

#243 R Vanzo on 01.18.18 at 1:41 pm

When will you guys finally admit that you guys were wrong about Trump?

Even the tax cuts, which liberals where screaming about deficits (as if they care about it), just produced almost 50 billions of extraordinary revenue from just two companies. That’s impressive.

#244 T on 01.18.18 at 2:01 pm

#191 Trevor on 01.18.18 at 7:43 am
But I thought BTC was dead Garth? If you are going to continue to cherry pick the drops, it would be beneficial for you to note when the entire crypto market rises by multiples!

———

BTC is dead. You fools and your fantasy money need to get over it already.

Just because it is up one day does not make it a good investment. There is no base value in bitcoin or any altcoins. Most people who are into crypto think they understand technology and finance, much like how SCM thinks they understand business and economics. All a bunch of morons chasing a fantasy.

#245 Ace Goodheart on 01.18.18 at 2:03 pm

RE: #106 CharlesDaTurd on 01.17.18 at 8:06 pm

” Bitcoin will be $20,000 by April 2018.
DJIA will also be at 20,000 in April. ”

Bitcoin and the 5000 odd other crypto “currencies” are finished. As soon as South East Asia gets done banning them and the United States, Europe and Canada get done taxing them, there will be nothing left for anyone to speculate on.

We need to do a show “what can you buy with a bitcoin”. The actual answer to this is pretty funny, ie you can’t buy very much.

The $22,000 CDN value of bitcoin was based on what people were willing to PAY for it, not based on what it could purchase.

People are now only willing to pay $10,000 for it.

Pretty soon it will be $5000 and then it will go down from there.

Dumbest bubble ever. This makes the dot.com/ teenage-CEO run companies with no earnings, business plans or marketable products bubble look intelligent.

#246 PastThePeak on 01.18.18 at 2:07 pm

#237 Victor V on 01.18.18 at 12:50 pm

Central bankers have been f*cking up for at least 15 years on this front – keeping rates “lower than normal” for years due to lower (official) inflation. It started in the early 2000’s with the Fed (Greenspan at the time) only very slowly raising rates after the dotcom/tech bust. Result = huge asset inflation in US housing. The US per-capita debt hit huge levels (which we in Canada have surpassed in recent years)

After the 2008/9 financial crisis, this phenomena spread around the industrial world – all CB’s absolutely floored their interest rates & many initiated QE. Result = huge asset inflation across the board (housing in many global locations with CAD leading the pack, crypto currencies, stocks, paintings, …).

Look where we are at in Canada – highest per-capita domestic debt-to-GDP in the world. After keeping interest rates so low for so long, the debt is now so threatening that the BoC can’t raise the rates much without fears of causing problems. So what will they do – keep the rates low for longer!! Sure, what has been the core problem for 8 years, is bound to be the solution.

Is Poloz that stupid that he thinks Canadians will de-lever on the debt without increasing rates? That they will just turn from debt accumulation to increased savings because? Let’s just kick the can down the road a little further…it will be easier then.

#247 Newcomer on 01.18.18 at 2:08 pm

#125 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 01.17.18 at 8:54 pm
Fake Happy Housing Crash Everyone! Post 96 and 86.
——-

If it were me, I would have kept quiet. 86 was your best post to date.

#248 Brett in Calgary on 01.18.18 at 2:27 pm

#72 Guy in Calgary on 01.17.18 at 6:55 pm

The overextended in the West are beginning to get caught with their pants down. Some people just have no self control.

I blame the education system. Teach people basic personal finance in school. At least then they don’t have an excuse.
——————————————————-
thats only part of it, the bigger half is self esteem and discipline.
—————
I second this ^^. If you think you NEED a fancy car, a big house, or something shiny to feel fulfilled you have bigger problems. Also, not enough people know what true happiness is… (hint) it’s not more stuff!

#249 re., R Vanco on 01.18.18 at 2:43 pm

indeed impressive

what are the projected consequences of his aggressive tax cuts on the national debt?

is the debt no longer an ‘issue’?

#250 LivinLarge on 01.18.18 at 2:43 pm

“I agree that consumer spending drives the economy, and that you might think a min wage hike will increase the spending because folks will go ahead and spend it.”…and when the real world stats are weighed against the political philosophy, when people have more to spnd, they spend it. Maybe they “should” save it but history is totally consistent…they spend it.

Maybe common sense and logic say otherwise but common sense is commonly wrong even if perfectly logical.

I used spend considerable time showing people who wanted to pay cash for a car, that they could make a significant profit by taking out a loan for the car and still keeping their money invested where ever ghey had it invested. Many, many times those buyers then talked to their [email protected] who said to them “how can you borrow at 3% when you’re only getting 2.5% on your sarvings?”

Totally incorrect on her part but logically and common sensically believeable. She just didn’t appreciate or comprehend that the loan interest was calculated on a declining balance and the savings interest was compounding. Simple, simple financial math that even the [email protected] hadn’t bothered to calculate…just used her “common sense”.

#251 MF on 01.18.18 at 3:00 pm

#242 R Vanzo on 01.18.18 at 1:41 pm

No. They will never admit anything positive about him. Even when he has major successes.

What they will do is blame him for ANY set back that occurs in the next 7 years with Trump as president. Bet on it.

That being said, if improving the economy was all about just “lowering taxes”, why wasn’t this been attempted before? Don’t get me wrong I am slightly for the move, but I am also a deficit hawk and in that sense the tax reform may be trouble.

MF

#252 Stan Brooks on 01.18.18 at 3:39 pm

#235 Jeff on 01.18.18 at 12:31 pm
My great grandfather was a banker. The mortgage rate was 5%. Duration and amount didn’t matter it was just 5% in England. When my great grandfather emigrated to Canada the rate was 7% due to the high risk of a new country. Rates didn’t used to change.

————————–

5 % was always the cost of real money in old Europe
except in cases of war, when it could go higher but never ever lower.

There where no central bankers/thieves.

What you consider as ‘money’ this days is nothing even remotely related to that.
It is purely IOY coupons with expiration date, so treat it as such, not as money.

The closest to money is land, yes, real estate when not in bubble, gold and stocks.

It is that simple.

Poloz can shove his pessos where the sun does not shine.
I am not interested in that garbage.

#253 Stan Brooks on 01.18.18 at 3:48 pm

#236 IHCTD9 on 01.18.18 at 12:48 pm

exactly, the money will go to pay for existing debt or to get new debt, not to consume.

The banking monstrosities have to be fed with your blood.

—————————–
#237 Victor V on 01.18.18 at 12:50 pm

Yep, rates can not be increased.
Inflation will be absolutely devastated.

#254 huh? on 01.18.18 at 3:48 pm

Look where we are at in Canada – highest per-capita domestic debt-to-GDP in the world.

………………………………..

https://www.statista.com/statistics/268177/countries-with-the-highest-public-debt/

#255 Trevor on 01.18.18 at 3:55 pm

#243 T – please offer some value in your post. Claiming something is dead while it is valued at 12K+ is probably the worst argument I have EVER heard. Again it has been claimed dead 236 times. https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/.

And please explain the banking system to me since I do not understand anything. Making general comments offers nothing to the blog. You also did not offer any opinions on LIBOR or the Wells Fargo scandal. I do not claim to know everything but I do like to have an intelligent discussion. And I did not claim gambling on a crypto or an individual stock was my investment strategy, but to not have any exposure to these areas is foolish.
Having said that, holding to the moon or mortgaging ones house to buy at these levels as Garth stated, yes that is foolish but taking profits and original investment out while something rises by 1000’s of percent is how smart ppl make money. And newsflash, you can short the crypto market and make money both ways.

#256 CharlesDaTurd on 01.18.18 at 3:57 pm

#244
Ace: “Network Effect” —look it up.

#257 Vanrentor on 01.18.18 at 4:19 pm

Hey Flop 1772 55th in Delta sold for $1.07

Previously sold in May 2016 for $1.14

Loss of $70K + $20K ppt + $35K Shyster fee

$125,000 Loss. Whoever just bought it in December should be down about the same in another years time.
The Realturds are even admitting the market is gone out here in Tsawwassen.

#258 For those about to flop... on 01.18.18 at 4:33 pm

Recent Sale Report.

This condo sold six days ago.

Originally asking 1.488 then1.388

Just sold for 1.380

2017 Tax assessment 1.49

2016 Tax assessment 1.26

This is the culprit behind Vancouver’s spiking average sold price in January.

It’s them pesky 2 bed /2 bath condos going for 1.4 million.

Either that or it’s that sales have dropped off a cliff and it only takes a few whales to cash in to tip the scales…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1680-bayshore-drive/1201

http://www.deannalawrence.ca/showlisting/2453/1201-1680-Bayshore-Drive-Coal-Harbour-Vancouver-West/

#259 For those about to flop... on 01.18.18 at 4:36 pm

19 pm
Hey Flop 1772 55th in Delta sold for $1.07

Previously sold in May 2016 for $1.14

Loss of $70K + $20K ppt + $35K Shyster fee

$125,000 Loss. Whoever just bought it in December should be down about the same in another years time.
The Realturds are even admitting the market is gone out here in Tsawwassen.

/////////////////////

Yeah Van , I did know that one thanks to some called Vigo helping me out.

I just put a bunch up to see what stuck.

That one was a boomerang…

M43BC

#260 VanMan on 01.18.18 at 6:29 pm

#69 Leichendiener

#162 Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

Believe me, I’m not part of the industry. And truthfully, I see value in what you say. The ban comment had nothing to do with your intent, it was more the style of writing which reads more like spam than anything else. The dirty shyster thing on repeat every day is getting old… that’s all I’m saying.

As for Garth’s consistent message and many of the dogs who comment, it totally resonates and makes much logical sense. The point I was making was that each and every time a new restrictive measure was brought in to place in the past, an equal or greater loophole was discovered somewhere else. The gasbag continues to inflate, but it seems like politicians, developers, bankers and the rest don’t really want the problem to be solved, they just want the appearance of trying to find a solution to be present. It’s kind of like those closet voters in the USA that voted for Trump.

Real estate is such an illness in the entire southern part of BC that everywhere I turn there is another so-called expert giving their opinion. I do not claim to be an expert, nor have a solution, I’m simply stating that more of the same will continue regardless of the changes because reversals to existing policies can be undone as fast or faster then they were introduced.

Even those that are not in the “market” are waiting on the sidelines salivating for a market downturn just so they can “get in”. It’s sickening… everything here is about real estate. There is no other topic of discussion…

#261 DeAris Azoth on 01.18.18 at 7:57 pm

DELETED