The trigger

Up she goes! Central bank raises rates: Link

One more sleep until the nobs at the central bank take back another bit of stimulus. With the BoC rate increasing a quarter point this week, that’s three increases in a handful of months, with more on the way. The implications could be epic, especially if you borrowed against your house to buy Bitcoins.

But what are the odds Stephen Poloz will pull the trigger? Yuge, apparently.

Of the 26 know-it-all economists surveyed by Bloomberg this week, 23 said it’ll happen. Overnight swaps are giving it 92% odds. And the thinking is this hike on Wednesday will be one of three that we get in 2018.

So that would increase the bank prime to a hair under 4%, and boost the cheapest HELOCs to 4.5%, with five-year mortgages advancing to 4.25%. Add in the stress test added it and borrowers must qualify at 6.25% later this year. Yes, that’s a 300% increase in 12 months. Our bankers have turned into rate-normalizing hawks. Or Buzzards. Opening the door for vultures.

Rising rates and B20 pose a combination that cannot be ignored. Yesterday this axe-wielding blog told you a mere 77 detached houses sold in Toronto (416) in the first two weeks of January. Yeah, it was brutally cold and this month so far is a bucket of suck, but that’s a disaster by any measure. Prices for detacheds fell over $90,000, or 9.1%.

A similar story is being told by Zolo (recall that realtors suspended their mid-month reports months last year, lacking the stones showed by Calgary). According to that site, monthly prices have declined in Toronto overall by 8.8%, and for the last three months the erosion is almost 14%. So imagine what happens when a five-year mortgage breaks 4%. Ouch.

Of course there are reasons the rate escalation might stop. Commodity prices (oil) plop. NAFTA blows up. Hawaii blows up. Trump blows up. Massively indebted Canadian households blow up. But in the absence of that, everybody should expect the normalization of the cost of money to continue. Never again in your lifetime will 2% five-year mortgages be available. Everything changes. Bond prices fall. Real estate comes back to earth. All variable-rate and demand loan costs rise. Mortgage credit restricts. And yet that heaping pile of debt is undiminished.

Who will pay the wages of sinful borrowing?

Many. For example, 14% of all households in the GTA, the nation’s largest market by far, own multiple properties. Typically that’s a principal residence which rose in value like a horny fungus, plus an ‘investment’ condo financed with a HELOC against the main house. The trouble now is the condo will be dropping in value and can’t be rented for enough to carry it. So it eventually gets dumped at a loss, bringing down its peers.

There are untold numbers of flippers, speckers and dumbass amateur landlords who have poured all their liquid net worth into leveraged properties, now facing a tough 2018. They may have bought at peak house last year and have already lost 10-15% of their capital. They may have purchased before selling an existing home – now turned illiquid. They may have financed condo-lusty spawn through Bank of Mom loans, but junior can’t afford the condo fees, plus the place is worth less than the financing. They may have taken mortgages from some dodgy company that, thanks to B20, won’t be renewing them. Now they face a stress test they may not pass.

Or perchance they’re one of the 49,000 realtors in Toronto with leased Audis and no income, whose idea of financial diversification is to own two condos, instead of one. Of course, there are the 48% of Canadians (as mentioned yesterday) who would be in deep trouble if their monthly expenses increase by $200 – almost guaranteed to happen as Poloz turns the screws. Unless he doesn’t.  But Mr. Market says, 92%, that he will.

So, in summary, it’s not different this time. It never is.

Ask the moisters who bought Bitcoin on Visa or with lines of credit against their condos a few months ago at almost $20,000. As I write this the cryptocurrency is worth less than $12k, and the chart suggests it has a good chance of sinking further. Zero might be a reasonable bottom. As you may know, China is cracking down on digital coin trading. South Korea used the hammer. The SEC has halted ETFs based on Bitcoin. Central banks, regulators and governments globally, as mentioned, will not allow an unregulated currency to undermine state-issued money. Like, duh. How is that possibly a surprise?

Bitcoin’s unearned ascent and worthy descent exemplify what a bubble is. Uninformed demand  and greed propelled it. Common sense and fear wrecks it. Faerie dust.

At least you could paper your bathroom with worthless Nortel certificates.

You get to live in a house that financially ruins you.

Bitcoin? Just a hole seared in your judgment.

260 comments ↓

#1 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 3:49 pm

You forgot to mention that YoY, Bitcoin is up 1,222%. That’s quite a return.

https://imgur.com/2BQ5Any

There was lots of money to be made. And now there is lots of money to be made shorting it.

Even more shockingly Garth, you forgot to mention the criminal banksters we have running this country.

Six Canada Banks Accused of Manipulating Derivatives Benchmark
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-15/six-canada-banks-accused-of-manipulating-derivatives-benchmark

We have our very own LIBOR scandal right here in Canada. Quelle surprise. These criminal gangsters should be locked up but of course they won’t be because we have a rigged, corrupt system.

The CDOR affects the prime rate which affects the entire Canadian economy. I would have thought you’d mention it Garth. Pretty big deal.

“Canadian Prime Rate means for any day the greater of: (a) the floating annual rate of interest announced by the Bank of Canada as its “prime business rate” as in effect on such day; and (b)(i) the 30-day CDOR Rate applicable on such day plus (ii) 0.50%.”

#2 MarkyMark on 01.16.18 at 3:55 pm

That’s cool, except south korea didn’t ban bitcoin and this is the 5th time china has “banned” it. All the news outlets had to redact their false statements from a few days ago. Also, take a look at all the banks hiring teams of blockchain developers. Or perhaps take a look at all the companies supporting and testing usecases for the technology behind it(
https://entethalliance.org/members/). Maybe it dropped 50% but is still 1000% up for the year?

#3 Victor V on 01.16.18 at 3:59 pm

Are weed stocks next to blow up? Short interest on Canopy, Aurora and Aphria have gone through the roof the past couple of weeks.

http://shortdata.ca/largest-short-positions/

#4 Alnoor Mithani on 01.16.18 at 3:59 pm

Nothing is going to blow up – even the boffins at Goldman Sachs are saying the bull markets in equities are set to last for several years yet but remember ‘in the long run we are all dead’ – John Maynard Keynes.

#5 Victor V on 01.16.18 at 4:06 pm

Big Six have now all raised mortgage rates as Bank of Canada decision looms

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/big-six-have-now-all-raised-mortgage-rates-as-bank-of-canada-decision-looms

The “Big Six” Canadian banks have now all hiked mortgage rates ahead of a Bank of Canada policy announcement on Wednesday.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank raised mortgage rates last week, citing “recent activity by competitors” and “Bank of Canada rate changes” as some of the factors that go into an increase.

Bank of Nova Scotia has now hiked as well, increasing its posted five-year fixed-rate mortgage rate to 5.14 per cent from 4.99 per cent. The lender also boosted its one-year, two-year, three-year, four-year, seven-year, and 10-year fixed-rate mortgages by 20 basis points.

“Our number one focus is providing value for our customers — we manage our pricing very actively to do just that,” said Scotiabank spokesman Lukas Gerber on Monday in an email. “We use a variety of market benchmarks to set rates.”

#6 Axe Boy on 01.16.18 at 4:09 pm

Could we use it to fix the economy?

http://www.luerzersarchive.com/en/magazine/commercial-detail/23721.html

#7 Okotokian on 01.16.18 at 4:13 pm

Money for nothing and your chicks for free. Bitcoiners remind me of house flippers in TO and Vancouver. They want to pile in and make money doing absolutely nothing. Well, the music has to stop and somebody has to be left holding the bag.

For all the bitcoiners who are getting burned. Sell and cut your losses. Then use the money you have left over and invest it in something else like Bre-X or tulip bulbs.

#8 Dr. Bob on 01.16.18 at 4:15 pm

Up, up, up…..the rate will go….

#9 Glenn Taylor on 01.16.18 at 4:16 pm

Lacy Hunt thinks the low in interest rates isn’t in yet though it may be a year or more before we get back to lows or lower:

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/landing/the-five-people-shaping-my-worldview#articles

His logic is sound given the debt overhang.

What do you think?

#10 See Dawg on 01.16.18 at 4:22 pm

Haha – this is great news to the savers like me.
As it crumbles I will fly in and scoop up the bargains!!

#11 bdwy sktrn on 01.16.18 at 4:22 pm

bitcoin baby.

a month ago i bet big on it dropping under 10k over 90 days

here she comes!!!

(btw your chart is waay out of date (like a whole hour! – rtq 10750)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/

#12 james on 01.16.18 at 4:23 pm

#238 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 3:38 pm

#235 james on 01.16.18 at 3:19 pm

I am the light. Shining bright enlightenment on the dark and evil forces of baby boomer ignorance.
………………………………………………………………..
While I’m not a boomer and not a millennial I don’t quite know how the take that? Never the less carry on Oh shinning light of brightness.

#13 Periscope on 01.16.18 at 4:25 pm

Richmond BC detached every size house is up and up 14% overall. The sky is falling, the sky is falling, nope it was the B20 bomber crashing in the straight of Georgia.

#14 David on 01.16.18 at 4:27 pm

Hey Garth,

To your knowledge, do people who were pre-approved for mortgages before Jan 1st have 90-120 days to buy a place with the financing, thus pushing out the full effect of B-20 for a few months?

#15 Insider on 01.16.18 at 4:28 pm

I work at the Bank of Canada, hiding behind a fake IP. I have insider information that Poloz will not hike tomorrow because it’s not politically viable for the property-ownerss in Vancouver and Toronto.

#16 Gobble Gobble on 01.16.18 at 4:31 pm

“Bitcoin moves above $500,000 within three years….if not, I will eat my d*ck on national television.” John McAfee, July 2017

This should be interesting to watch.

#17 I am with stupid on 01.16.18 at 4:31 pm

https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/video/countries-where-people-most-least-173310746.html

Interesting, people in the richest countries are working less than anyone else/specially those in the poor countries.

#18 Insider on 01.16.18 at 4:33 pm

Only one rate hike in 2018.

#19 I am with stupid on 01.16.18 at 4:37 pm

#1 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 3:49 pm
—-

The financial minister, wild bill moroneau will do nothing that can hurt the banks. If there is a concern he will delegate to the ethics commissioner. She will fine them $ 200 each/per bank. Problem solved.

But be aware if you are a small business owner, he is coming after you for a biiiiiiiiiiiiiiiig screw.

the plebs should know it’s place.

And he will retire at his french villa.

We don’t need laws, we need justice! Liberals and elitists, be aware of the pitchforks.

#20 Fluorine on 01.16.18 at 4:39 pm

$10,300 and falling still…

A friend I work with has a 0.5 BTC chip (wallet key) in a drawer somewhere… I told her to dig it out and sell it around $18K/USD.

I wonder if she did?

#21 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 4:41 pm

Seems like RBC didn’t learn its lesson from LIBOR. On the contrary, they brought their scam to Canada.

2016: RBC, 15 other global banks face revived lawsuits over LIBOR-rigging allegations
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/libor-rigging-banks-1.3597254

Bernie Sanders was right after all. The business model of the Big Banks is FRAUD.

I’ve listened to “tough on crime” conservatives claim for decades that we need harsh punishment for criminal activity in order to be a swift deterrent. Funny how this never applies to white collar criminal banksters.

#22 LANI MacDonald on 01.16.18 at 4:41 pm

Leased Audi No Income.

I shoulda stuck to playin road hockey.
Only risk was a semi-detached retina.

How bout those Hab’s? How are they gonna make the playoffs if none of their players can go to Korea?

#23 I am with stupid on 01.16.18 at 4:42 pm

I did not know that Dolores O’Riordan had links to Ontario

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/dolores-o-apos-riordan-found-222530072.html

No wonder her best known song is named ‘Zombie’.

To each and every Zombie in Ontario:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ejga4kJUts

#24 Derrie McDrew on 01.16.18 at 4:46 pm

How long till the mary jane stocks trace bitcoins path or are they going moonward?

#25 Québec Language Police/ Agent police Langue Québec on 01.16.18 at 4:48 pm

Cher # 1, Screwed Canadien Millenial,

You have committed a grammatical error in your comment.

Quelle surprise, should be Quelle une surprise.

Govern yourself accordingly,
Québec Language Police/ Agent police Langue Québec

#26 Dolce Vita on 01.16.18 at 4:50 pm

#13 Periscope

The only thing falling in Richmond is the Average Price, Sales Volume, Inventory, selling to listing price ratio and Sale to List.

You forgot to mention the +14.3% was year over year. Monthly is -2.4% and quarterly is -2.3%.

Richmond, the RE booming.

By mid-year you will be lucky if you have -25%, by year end way worse. But enjoy the 1 and only + number…for now.

#27 Dolce Vita on 01.16.18 at 4:55 pm

A very bad year in store for the FIRE sector.

I think -25% on average price in La La Land and 416 et. al. by mid-year not out of the question.

Tight money, high debt, overlaveraged = people selling to get out as fast as they can and montize what they can.

Reads like many need to get out. Will discount prices faster than you can blink in April, May to sell to the few that have money.

By year end, catastrophic, maybe -50% if a recession triggered by the FIRE sector.

#28 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 01.16.18 at 4:55 pm

You dirty SHYSTERS are the reason why people are going bankrupt. Yup its already happening. NOTHING is selling you useless SHYSTER [email protected] Many of you should be jailed for financial crimes.

Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-) Its game over you dirty SHYSTERS.

#29 Oopswediditagain on 01.16.18 at 4:57 pm

Periscope: “The sky is falling, the sky is falling, nope it was the B20 bomber crashing in the straight of Georgia.”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

That is so cute. A realtor trying to apply a little lipstick to the market so he can unload a couple of his investment condos.

As the B20 legislation ripples through the various cities in conjunction with interest rate increases, specuvestors will start to panic and try to dump their holdings.
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/debt/one-in-three-canadians-say-they-are-unable-to-cover-their-monthly-bills-as-rate-hike-looms

Those properties won’t sit on the market for more than a month before prices start there race downwards. When the bottom of the pyramid gets cut out, too many properties searching for any buyer will expedite that slide.

The realtors friend then becomes their enemy as the media starts headlining major price drops, bankruptcies and job losses.

It’s not pretty and it’s certainly not wishful thinking because the devastation to family and friends is terrible.

#30 Bitcoin casualties mounting on 01.16.18 at 4:57 pm

LOL! https://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_109125992.png

#31 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 01.16.18 at 5:00 pm

#1 SCM

A BS COURT ACTION FROM COLORADO

This action by what is likely a breaking-down Colorado pension fund nobody’s ever hear of screams “stinky” and fraudulent.

For this pension fund to try and tie in our world class and legitimate banking system with an old LIBOR-type scandal, post-2008, is beyond outrageous.

Canadian banking and finance authorities must battle this bogus BS very aggressively starting right now.

It is more than coincidence that such an action should be taken on what is probably the eve of a failure of NAFTA.

A one-two financial punch with more in the wings?

Careful what you wish for SCM.

Seen this movie before.

#32 Rexx Rock on 01.16.18 at 5:07 pm

Victoria’s house on average went up 25% in 2017.Not to shabby for a investment return.Your average Victoria median couple earning $100,000 isn’t buying but the rich folks from Asia, Vancouver and Toronto who want a nice place to live and a rock solid investment that will grow every year.In Langford they’ve clear cut hundreds of acres of forest land for residential and commercial real estate over the last 10 years.They don’t call Victoria little Dubai for nothing!

#33 Calico Jack on 01.16.18 at 5:09 pm

I normally don’t post in the comments section but I saw this article in the LA Times and had to share it. It seems to show that the State Government of California has been able to do pretty much what it wanted for the longest time (a very liberal agenda). Here are the results:

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-jackson-california-poverty-20180114-story.html

Yup, that’s right it is the poverty capital of the US and the ones to blame are the State Government. Our Federal system is doing pretty much the same thing and I expect that the results will be the same as those seen in California.

The sad truth is that it can all be avoided with a good government that is not sold to special interests, pandering to buddies or ideological agendas that have no basis in reality. All of this is financed with hard working Canadians footing the bill and no repercussions to the current (lack-of) leadership.

#34 Mike on 01.16.18 at 5:09 pm

.
My brother’s neighbor just sold his 2014 $450k bought house in GVA for almost $900k.

Sorry B20, Sorry Poloz 8% interest rates – you have no impact in GVA. We are special.

#35 I’m stupid on 01.16.18 at 5:20 pm

It’s you Garth…

Now we have to put up with 30 comments telling us to buy the bitcoin dip before it goes up to 100k.

#36 Dee McAndrew on 01.16.18 at 5:23 pm

Rumors of a “Hawkish Hold” coming from Financial post. Or a dovish hike. Poloz is going to really make this country move tomorrow. Bigtime volatility!

#37 Mayday mayday! on 01.16.18 at 5:36 pm

Help! I’m ruined! I put my life savings into BTC a month ago because the cointards told me it was going to 100K and would replace all the banks and all the currencies in the world (or something) and I’d be super mega awesome rich but now I’m down 50%.

I haven’t yet told my wife and I’m terrified. What should I do?? Is Bitcoinnaire available to perform marriage counselling?

#38 -=jwk=- on 01.16.18 at 5:36 pm

@#35 from yesterday:


The new stress test is only the latest in a string of guideline updates, and Loewen, a 13-year industry veteran , says brokers and underwriters have always found ways to ensure market buoyancy.

On that front, nothing has changed, he says. The industry will simply change tack and adjust.

Mortgage broker who started work in 2005 and has seen nothing but up his entire career is confident it will keep going up.Surprise.

#39 dr. talc on 01.16.18 at 5:44 pm

specs, renovators, builders, investors etc are moving into their properties in large numbers, for obvious reasons. Less inventory.

#40 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 5:47 pm

#238 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 3:38 pm

I am the light. Shining bright enlightenment on the dark and evil forces of baby boomer ignorance.
—————

Better pass on careers in philosophy and poetry.

#41 'zero might be a reasonable bottom' on 01.16.18 at 5:48 pm

for BTC?

LOL

see ya at $15,000 in a few days……some folks never learn

#42 Jungle on 01.16.18 at 5:50 pm

Well said blog tonight.

#43 AGuyInVanvouver on 01.16.18 at 5:53 pm

#13 Periscope
I’ve come to realize much of the content here doesn’t apply to Vancouver. There have been no significant price corrections. Detached houses have slowed but so-called price cuts don’t take them back to any level of reality.

#44 Ardy on 01.16.18 at 5:55 pm

#14 David on 01.16.18 at 4:27 pm

Just renewed my mortgage at 2.94% for a 2-yr, that’s 6 months more than I need. Anyhoo, I asked a similar question and was told that the bank will honor the builder rate on a new build, but will still stress test at the higher rate before approving the mortgage. Assuming it’s the same for a resale.

RD

#45 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 01.16.18 at 5:56 pm

“A fool and his money are soon…”

Cryptocurrencies extend deep corrections. Bitcoin is now down more than 22% on the day, Ethereum is currently off 28%, Litecoin has dropped 29%

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTsiTEWWAAAbpz9.jpg:large

Ripple is now trading at $0.87 cents. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTskDShUQAAyGV1.jpg:large

On other news, glad I advised selling USD dollar holdings.

#46 Kat on 01.16.18 at 5:57 pm

Rexx I grew up on the island just outside Victoria. It has never been called little Dubai, perhaps less weed smoking for awhile.

#47 re., mayday! mayday! on 01.16.18 at 5:59 pm

I haven’t yet told my wife and I’m terrified. What should I do?? Is Bitcoinnaire available to perform marriage counselling?
……….

nope. He’s on a yacht , just outside New Zealand. Not bad, eh?

#48 John on 01.16.18 at 6:00 pm

Vancouver and Victoria seem to be immune to anything so far. With all of the corrupt politicians and money laundering I can’t see the party ending.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3919805/real-estate-expert-says-ndp-have-limited-tools-to-reduce-housing-prices/

https://globalnews.ca/news/3953603/in-this-2018-map-metro-vancouver-turns-red-with-single-family-homes-worth-1m-or-more/

#49 Stan Brooks on 01.16.18 at 6:01 pm

#36 Dee McAndrew on 01.16.18 at 5:23 pm
Rumors of a “Hawkish Hold” coming from Financial post. Or a dovish hike. Poloz is going to really make this country move tomorrow. Bigtime volatility!

Poloz has not a clue as for the big doo doo he and this country is in.

It does not matter what he does.

Both CAD and economy are creamed.
There are few basic scenarios with stressing on rate increases first then checking out and reversing it or the opposite or flavors of the 2 but the bottom line is:

1. No country ever recovered from a massive credit increase without a massive QE/debasing of its currency

2. Move out of ANY CAD based assets except energy and metals, maybe some agriculture.

Inflation will be fun.

#50 Stan Brooks on 01.16.18 at 6:07 pm

Or putting it straight:

You can not get real return on a scheiße currency.

https://www.ft.com/content/61c3c7d4-f9e7-11e7-9b32-d7d59aace167
Just look at the boss folks, just look at the boss.

The fish starts smelling from the head.

I will not hold anything CAD based until this guy is gone.

#51 Stan Brooks on 01.16.18 at 6:09 pm

https://www.ft.com/content/61c3c7d4-f9e7-11e7-9b32-d7d59aace167

#52 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 6:10 pm

More than 12,000 Canadians call on finance minister to raise corporate taxes, close loopholes
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/01/16/more-than-12000-canadians-call-on-finance-minister-to-raise-corporate-taxes-close-loopholes.html

The Star investigation revealed that Canada’s 102 biggest corporations collectively avoided $62.9 billion in income taxes over the past six years. On average, that’s $10.5 billion less per year than if they paid the official corporate tax rate.

The Big Five banks, Canada’s five most profitable corporations, account for a disproportionate amount of tax avoidance: $5.5 billion in 2016 alone.

——————

Corporations sure are lucky they have an entire unpaid army of dedicated soldiers called conservatives who fight for them at all times and serve their interests.

#53 For those about to flop... on 01.16.18 at 6:10 pm

About a week ago a person that has helped me out a couple of times and goes by “It burns” wrote myself just to make sure I knew about 2891 Pandora.

As you can see by the conversation and a subsequent double check I was thinking about 2712 Pandora just down the street.

Well, most likely in response to a little nearby competition,the guys at 2891 just pulled out the sickle and whacked $100k off their asking.

HI -ho there neighbour, I see your overpriced piece of crap and I raise..

I mean lower…

M43BC

///////////////////////////////

It burns pm
Another one for your flop file in case you haven’t seen it.

Originally listed to 1.599 now down to 1.398 what they paid for back in 2016.

2891 Pandora Street, Vancouver

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMlFZVQ==

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2891-pandora-street

///////////////////////////

Hey Burnie ,at first glance I thought I had it ,but I think I am thinking of the case below just down the road.

I will keep it just in case and thanks for the assistance.

These guys are pretty much in the same boat.

There’s a sea of disinformation out there and I’m in it in a leaky rubber dinghy holding a torch trying to be a lighthouse…

M43BC

Now asking 1.44

2712 Pandora Street, Vancouver paid 1.29 asking 1.55 were asking 1.39 way back in May 2017

Apr 11:$1,588,000
May 2: $1,399,000
Change: – 189000.00 -12%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=2712%20Pandora%20Street,%20Vancouver&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMlFYRQ==

#54 re., Stan Brooks on 01.16.18 at 6:12 pm

whewwwwww

thanks for the Doom and Gloom update Stan. I’ll be selling all CAD assets except gold/silver!!! Thanks my man!!!!

#55 dee on 01.16.18 at 6:16 pm

Hey Garth,

To your knowledge, do people who were pre-approved for mortgages before Jan 1st have 90-120 days to buy a place with the financing, thus pushing out the full effect of B-20 for a few months?
——————————————

I heard this as well. Can anyone confirm if this is true or not?

#56 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 6:26 pm

#16 Calico Jack on 01.16.18 at 5:09 pm
I normally don’t post in the comments section but I saw this article in the LA Times and had to share it. It seems to show that the State Government of California has been able to do pretty much what it wanted for the longest time (a very liberal agenda). Here are the results:

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-jackson-california-poverty-20180114-story.html

Yup, that’s right it is the poverty capital of the US and the ones to blame are the State Government. Our Federal system is doing pretty much the same thing and I expect that the results will be the same as those seen in California.

The sad truth is that it can all be avoided with a good government that is not sold to special interests, pandering to buddies or ideological agendas that have no basis in reality. All of this is financed with hard working Canadians footing the bill and no repercussions to the current (lack-of) leadership.
—————

Hmmm, bad policy, bloated bureaucracies, expensive housing, expensive energy, high minimum wages, strong alt-left SJW sentiment, long running Democrat government.

Sounds real familiar…

#57 Linda on 01.16.18 at 6:32 pm

This question has likely already been asked, but what happens if someone who is up for a mortgage renewal is 1) refused for renewal by their current lender & 2) starts shopping around & doesn’t pass the stress test at alternate lenders? If they can’t get a mortgage renewal, does the original lender then re-possess the property? Does that lender want to repossess or do they then offer some kind of deal where the current occupants are forced to pay more? If the current occupants can’t pass the stress test, can the lender even offer a deal? Or is the vendor forced to take back the property & boot the current occupants out of it?

#58 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 01.16.18 at 6:32 pm

The big six Canadian Banks will do well in a rising interest rate environment.

#59 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 6:32 pm

#37 Mayday mayday! on 01.16.18 at 5:36 pm

Is Bitcoinnaire available to perform marriage counselling?

————

I’m sure he is able.

Although, I’d take his advice with a grain of salt.

#60 Adam on 01.16.18 at 6:38 pm

I have no faith in Bitcoin, but I think you’re nuts to be commenting on it, much akin to how Trump is constantly touting the stock markets gains as evidence of his awesomeness as a President.

Bitcoin, rightfully or wrongfully, has bounced back from 30% declines several times over the last 12 months. So when it does again this time, (and it hits 18k again, probably later this week), at least have the stones to come out and comment on it’s increases as well as it’s decreases…or just stop commenting on it altogether to avoid the proverbial egg on your face.

#61 SimplyPut7 on 01.16.18 at 6:39 pm

#21 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 4:41 pm

It’s nice to see millennials hating banks again.

I couldn’t convince any that their banks do not care about them when they were taking out the $500k or more mortgage (with the help from the Bank of Mom and Dad) at 2.34% was a teaser rate.

Very few paid attention to the power that B-20 gave banks when the policy was being drafted last year.

Spread the word, to them so they don’t make that mistake again.

#62 When the Whip Comes Down on 01.16.18 at 6:42 pm

Rexx Rock – the benchmark detached house in Victoria went up 9.3% in 2017. The average price of detached for all areas was up 13.5%. You can verify this yourself by looking at VREBs stat packages. While a nice gain, completely inconsistent with your alleged 25% (where are you looking to get your figure?). And neither do I know very many who consider the municipality of Langford to be Victoria.

#63 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 6:46 pm

#52 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 6:10 pm

Corporations sure are lucky they have an entire unpaid army of dedicated soldiers called conservatives who fight for them at all times and serve their interests
—————

I love the big Canadian Banks, well; one of them anyway. [email protected] my Bank told me in 2006 I’d best not go fixed for my next term, all indications are rates are going down. Boy was she right! I got a sub-prime variable and my mortgage interest rate went down, all the way to 1.5%! She sure saved me a giant pile of money, glad I talked with her.

Plus, my bank will be making me a millionaire by 65 while I do jack squat! Every time they make money, I make money!

I’m behind these banks 100% and don’t care if they make money too

#64 Mr Reality on 01.16.18 at 6:49 pm

“dumbass amateur landlords”, love it. So many people are just that and its not even funny anymore.

Mr R

#65 When the Whip Comes Down on 01.16.18 at 6:49 pm

Rexx – your langford detached average price also remains at about $685,000 in December 2017, same as it was in December 2016…..big year of growth wasn’t it. 2018 Happy New Year B20.

#66 TheDood on 01.16.18 at 6:49 pm

#43 AGuyInVanvouver on 01.16.18 at 5:53 pm
#13 Periscope
I’ve come to realize much of the content here doesn’t apply to Vancouver. There have been no significant price corrections. Detached houses have slowed but so-called price cuts don’t take them back to any level of reality.
__________________________________________

Relax……….

Give the rate hikes and stress test some time to brew and work some magic. No one is lined up to buy RE in the Vancouver area like they were at this time last year. Sellers this year will be waiting months to dump their properties. Last year it was days! At this time next year, sellers will be waiting years. The bottom WILL fall out of this ridiculous market, it may take a while though.

Rising interest rates, massive debt, and less available credit point in the direction of falling prices. I would guess 30% loss on $1 million homes (current market) by Jan 2019. We should have a pool!

#67 common sense on 01.16.18 at 6:50 pm

#58 Four Fingers Watson

Canadian Banks do well in ANY environment.

As long as people are stupid enough to live beyond their means….eternity.

#68 Fish on 01.16.18 at 7:00 pm

Didn’t we just get some planes, they have wings, just a bit of repair needed, yes we will be fine just fine

#69 down_boy on 01.16.18 at 7:01 pm

“Central banks, regulators and governments globally, as mentioned, will not allow an unregulated currency to undermine state-issued money. Like, duh. How is that possibly a surprise?”

I got out at the peak and documented that here. The only thing bitcoin taught me is that if you want free market you are going to have to start your own country with your own military. Wait til they regulate sugary treats sold at convenience stores…coming soon.

#70 Rain clouds on 01.16.18 at 7:01 pm

A Chinese website is apparently promoting Canada’s interest rate hikes as future real estate buying opportunities for them.

This is messed up if my colleagues translation was correct. We lose with low interest rates and it seems we lose with high interest rates.

#71 Robert B on 01.16.18 at 7:02 pm

Bitcoin and all its friends may be down but……

“Ripple” is used by over 100 banks including American express and Money Gram . More to come there.

Ripple saves transaction time and costs of transferring money. It takes 3 secs to move money anywhere in the world. That market is $27 trillion .

This coin may not be money but it is and will be integrated into our current financial system.

Funny how Oil , gold, alt coins, equity markets all went down today.
Happy trading

#72 mathman on 01.16.18 at 7:05 pm

49k RE Agents – I would suspect many are part time and or are agents but really flippers.

20% or less probably make all the money – they have probably taken on staff and expanded over the last 5-7 years. So star agent keeps the Audi, dumps his/her staff and the posh office – there is a multiplier challenge here if these 10k star agents employ 3-4 people each?

The other 80% will be likely wiped out and or have to liquidate all their property to stay afloat. Given sales activity in the GTA since September, folks have to be starving.

Hoping for Leadership at the BOC to do the right thing – the FED is clear where they are going.

Math

#73 Chaddywack on 01.16.18 at 7:09 pm

The difference is Bitcoin will correct much quicker than housing in Vancouver or Toronto.

Last time Vancouver went like this it ten years later it was about the same price. You might not see price drops in real dollars and people will say things like “my house never went down, it just went flat” but in effect it did drop because of inflation……fun times ahead.

Unless I’m wrong and planeloads of foreign investors return to YVR on the drop to save it from a downturn!

#74 Dan. T on 01.16.18 at 7:12 pm

Really sticking a fork in crypto right now? Just like your call on buying van real estate 8-7-6- 5 years ago- prices doubled and crap condos tripled- same thing now. Still long way up to go on crypto. Wow my 500$ bitcoin might drop to 7-8k .. maybe lower but that will be buying opportunity of your lifetime… anyhow… good thing I took profits on the way up.

#75 oopswediditagain on 01.16.18 at 7:13 pm

Rexx Rock on 01.16.18 at 5:07 pm
“Victoria’s house on average went up 25% in 2017.Not to shabby for a investment return.Your average Victoria median couple earning $100,000 isn’t buying but the rich folks from Asia, Vancouver and Toronto who want a nice place to live and a rock solid investment that will grow every year.”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

So many bulls counting on 2017 stats. Why don't you take a look at the househuntvictoria.ca blog. The blog administer is a real estate agent who has a pretty honest viewpoint on the market.

Spoiler alert: You're wrong.

https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/01/15/jan-15-market-update/#comments
Jan 15 Market Update – The stress test starts to bite

#76 steph on 01.16.18 at 7:17 pm

Crypto-Scam is nothing else but the biggest fraud ever. It’s no bubble. Just a massive fraud.

All these bit-toys are just casino chips, without the actual chip.

Even worst, at the casino, you may win sometimes. This thing is a joke. I am software, economics, finance literate… I like to think. And I can’t see other value than zero. Even below zero, considering the offending rates they charge to get out.

I weep for the victims.

Only one fix for this: learn to think. Educate yourself. If you bought any bit stuff, you are a ignorant.

#77 oncebittwiceshy on 01.16.18 at 7:22 pm

#34 Mike on 01.16.18 at 5:09 pm
.
My brother’s neighbor just sold his 2014 $450k bought house in GVA for almost $900k.

Sorry B20, Sorry Poloz 8% interest rates – you have no impact in GVA. We are special.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Interesting, because my brother's neighbors cousin in Langley has had to reduce his price twice since he listed in September…. but he was in good company.

myrealtycheck.ca
Langley:
Average Change: -1.54% Up:16 Down:38
Overall $ Change: -3418617.00 Average Change Amount:-63307.72

Or maybe your brother's neighbor lived in Surrey where everything isn't as rosy as you might like us to believe.

Surrey:

Average Change: -2.46% Up:26 Down:91
Overall $ Change: -13592449.00 Average Change Amount:-116174.78

#78 Mark on 01.16.18 at 7:22 pm

” If they can’t get a mortgage renewal, does the original lender then re-possess the property?”

Yes. In most cases where such a scenario is applicable the mortgage is under CMHC subprime mortgage insurance. The lender calls CMHC up on the phone and proceeds per the CMHC’s guidance, which may involve invoking the legal rights the bank has under the security agreement associated with the pledge of the mortgage.

So Canadian banks have little reason to do really much of anything to work out a “deal” with borrowers in that situation since CMHC, in most cases, is the guarantor of that paper. As it is well known that the banks have procedure CMHC subprime insurance against most of their subprime paper that would be vulnerable to negative equity foreclosure (~$900B out of a total mortgage market somewhere between $1.2 and $1.4T!).

What the CMHC might start doing is anyone’s guess. Foreclosures on a systemic basis look incredibly bad for politicians. And the CMHC will be keen to avoid price discovery (and thus jeopardize the solvency of the rest of their portfolio). So expect some pretty “creative” measures to come out of the GoC/CMHC when Canadian subprime loans start toppling like dominos.

#79 acdel on 01.16.18 at 7:24 pm

Love the block chain technology, those of you do not get it are in for a rude surprise.

Bitcoin is Bitcoin, I do not totally understand it but I see it like when oil hit rock bottom and people where saying that it is it for the product; guess what it’s over $60 now; I do not invest in Bitcoin only for the fact that I do not get it; do not count it out!

Those of us that live in Alberta might relate to this.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3968693/danielle-smith-december-jobs-numbers-arent-so-rosy-after-all/

#80 Massive Rate Guru on 01.16.18 at 7:26 pm

Folks. My prediction is that Poloz won’t raise. He’s scared and confused.

#81 akashic record on 01.16.18 at 7:28 pm

War on crypto.
Like war on anything ever worked.

People with no dog in the fight are becoming hysterical, no matter which direction it goes.

Relax! It’s just money.

#82 Mark on 01.16.18 at 7:31 pm

“This is messed up if my colleagues translation was correct. We lose with low interest rates and it seems we lose with high interest rates.”

How exactly has Canada lost? Low interest rates have driven housing prices up, as Canadian speculator speculate. Chinese participation in Canada’s RE markets is almost non-existent — the entirety of Chinese inflows into Canada can be statistically fully accounted for in terms of investment in the resource and other sectors. Leverage in Canada’s RE marketplace is over the top, exactly the opposite of what you would expect if foreign money was participating. Additionally, the completely concocted meme that “Chinese” are investing in one of the most overpriced asset classes, Canadian residential RE, is completely at odds with the fact that wealthy Chinese became wealthy by having a good eye to value, hard work, and savings. Its a most disgusting racist and xenophobic concoction of the highest order by the RE sell side in Vancouver and Toronto.

And yes, as house prices go down, if not crash we might actually start to see some foreign participation. However, given that exceedingly few CAD$ are actually overseas and available to buy Canadian housing, the fall in Canadian housing prices may not be accompanied by an increase in purchasing power of foreign nationals in their local currencies. Just watch the CAD$ soar as house prices fall, a natural response to the implied deflation. Just watch….

#83 Dead Cat Bounce on 01.16.18 at 7:35 pm

#72 Mathman

You are correct ! I’ve heard that…

10% of the Shysters sell 90% of the RE

#84 Doug t on 01.16.18 at 7:41 pm

Yes crypto currencies are volatile now and I don’t understand it at all – BUT it is the future – remember way back when warren buffet dismissed that crazy “internet thing” – time will tell but technology will not be stopped, it never is for better or worse

RATM

#85 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 7:42 pm

#67 common sense on 01.16.18 at 6:50 pm

As long as people are stupid enough to live beyond their means….eternity.
————-

We got that part covered in spades…

#86 Nonplused on 01.16.18 at 7:46 pm

Just carbon taxes alone are going to eat up that $200 a month, if they haven’t already. And if that doesn’t finish the consumer off the $15 minimum wage will.

Carbon taxes apply to everything you buy every step of the way because none of it gets done without carbon fuels. None of it. They can’t even keep the ice cream frozen without electricity, which is mostly carbon fueled. Your computer? Carbon fueled. Your iPhone? Ditto. It’s easier to understand your car and your furnace but it’s even your Doritos.

But that is the way lefty governments think. It doesn’t matter if people have the money to pay more taxes, raise them anyway!

#87 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 8:09 pm

#52 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 6:10 pm
More than 12,000 Canadians call on finance minister to raise corporate taxes, close loopholes
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/01/16/more-than-12000-canadians-call-on-finance-minister-to-raise-corporate-taxes-close-loopholes.html

The Star investigation revealed that Canada’s 102 biggest corporations collectively avoided $62.9 billion in income taxes over the past six years. On average, that’s $10.5 billion less per year than if they paid the official corporate tax rate.

The Big Five banks, Canada’s five most profitable corporations, account for a disproportionate amount of tax avoidance: $5.5 billion in 2016 alone.
————-

Insolvent Toronto click-bait tabloid “The Star”, launches front page story encouraging Canadians to give a rip about banks legally avoiding taxes. Enraged Citizenry responds with .000324% of population confirming an infinitesimally minute rip has indeed been given.

#88 Nonplused on 01.16.18 at 8:11 pm

This is Rebel Media so many readers on this blog might be immediately triggered, but this one is actually pretty good:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJsnq4sVouA

Minimum wage hikes being directly passed on to child care users. Also a brief bit on the YMCA having to raise prices since 80% of their costs are labor.

I wrote a long bit a while back about how I predict that the summer camps both my daughters work at are going to be impacted. Sure, it might be great for my daughters, more money to buy video games and back country skis without having to ask me for money, but a lot of people use these camps as child care in the summers. That’s going to be a lot more expensive to do. If the numbers are the same as the YMCA and labor is 80% of their expenses, fees are going up. When prices rise, demand drops, so some of those counselors and camp leaders are going to be out of work.

Ya government! Hip hip hooray!

I’ve also highlighted on this blog how minimum wage rises are really a tax grab as they didn’t raise the personal exemption. Lots of people who didn’t pay much tax before will be paying a lot more now. For a full time worker in Alberta making minimum wage the effective tax goes from $1000 a year to $5000. That’s what they are really after, and they don’t care how much more you have to pay for daycare or a trip to the Y. In the eyes of the government, everyone has an unlimited ability to pay more.

So anyway, my challenge remains unanswered: “If minimum wage laws work, why not $30”?

#89 Hugh Janus on 01.16.18 at 8:13 pm

Jingle mail, jingle mail, jingle all the way hay!! What do you do if you have an electric lock? Screw the door shut after you kick the thermostat off the wall?? Then stick it in a box and mail it to your lender??

Dont buy bitcoin. Buy xrp its perfect timing. I love this intimidation tactic of the corrupt bankers saying cryptos will be outlawed. Good luck uncle sam. What are govts and cra etc going to do threaten you by text, by email, maybe get smart and theaten you by royal mail?

Not all people are dumb enough to believe bankers and govts intimidation and lies about crypto crackdown. Of course bankers are scared they should be they are being sent out to pasture like they should be. Blockchain is even going to do away with realtors. Let the party start!!

#90 Danny on 01.16.18 at 8:13 pm

Interesting how many people comment on your review of facts without having the base knowledge or intelligent skills to forecast that you have gained over many years.

This blog raises some very thoughtful predictions.

This is the field you are better than us because of the amount of experience and foresight most of us do not have.

The real estate Cartel comes up daily with simple lines for the press to create panic and anxiety without any concerns about the stress they cause amongst partners interested in selling or buying a place to live. Something like shooting from the hip guy Trump….no care about who gets hurt.

It seems to me that most people commenting on your blog should talk about what they know and be lighter on predictions.

It’s like knowing about Trump. There is alot more that people don’t know about his past deals because they were fake setups, tied to hush contracts and tied to a very complicated web of friendships around the world with very rich players the likes and amount of wealth that is unprecedented.

Also like Bitcoin….the modern day virtual casino .

#91 Still Can’t Afford it on 01.16.18 at 8:14 pm

I’m afraid, I don’t want a big mortgage anymore but in this country my 1/4 of a mil means I’d have to live in a dump.

#92 So Tired of CAN RE on 01.16.18 at 8:15 pm

Why doesn’t this RE market implode already, like geeeze.

#93 yup on 01.16.18 at 8:15 pm

War on crypto.

People with no dog in the fight are becoming hysterical, no matter which direction it goes.

………

it’s like they are angry. If it goes up, they are mad, if it goes down they are happy and scold. Unreal

#94 Bitcoin is a scam on 01.16.18 at 8:16 pm

As I mentioned before, Bitcoin prices are laregely driven by a few people who hold huge numbers of Bitcoins. A single person with 10,000 Bitcoins has 10,000 Bitcoin adresses, and nobody knows if these are held by the same individual or by 10,000 different individuals. So, what has been deiving up the price is simply fake transactions between lots of adresses owned by the same individuals; naive outsiders who do not understand the Bitcoin technology think these are arms-length trades, and get suckered in. Bitcoin “exchanges” have really been gigantic fraudulent bait systems; the fact that regulators have been asleep has given naive greedy speculators the impression that these exchanges are not fraudulent. Nothing could be further from the truth.

For clarity, I actually did my dissertation in math on the subject of cryptography. The fact that a cryptographer holds this opinion should tell you something. I actually know of no professional cryptographer who believes that Bitcoin and analogues are secure or valid as an electronic cash-like mechanism in the real world.

#95 re., steph on 01.16.18 at 8:18 pm

I weep for the victims.

……….

no you don’t. Don’t be silly. And thanks for sharing your opinion.

did you weep for the guy that bought BTC at $240 and sold at $6000? or were you angry ?

it govt wants to shut down this racket they can, until then …the casino is open

#96 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 8:18 pm

#80 Massive Rate Guru on 01.16.18 at 7:26 pm
Folks. My prediction is that Poloz won’t raise. He’s scared and confused

——

No idea what Poloz will do. He should hike of course. I wish he’d hike rates by 0.5% just to freak Canadians out and show he means business. I’m old enough to remember 50 basis point rate moves. I bet you boomers forgot.

#97 Ace Goodheart on 01.16.18 at 8:19 pm

#1 SCM – The Fire and Police Pension fund of Colorado?

Yes for sure lock everyone up. There is no reason for these guys to make this stuff up. Is it even possible to get criminal convictions and lock up from an unproven Civil class action that hasn’t been certified yet?

This law suit looks a lot like coat tailing. This is old news. Yes the big banks still face some litigation risk, but seriously, the Fire and Police Pension Fund of Colorado?

#98 LivinLarge on 01.16.18 at 8:20 pm

“The big six Canadian Banks will do well in a rising interest rate environment” rarely a truer word is said. Basically a license to print money since the Bank Act came on the scene.

On a related theme, someone, I think yesterday was asking about dividends and some quote that intimated that companies are under no obligation to even payna dividend period. In the most general sense this is a factual statement but there is more to it than just pure fact. Many companies, especially our banks all have in their corporate bylaws a formula that stipulates how and when dividends will or must be paid. They are after all a dividend producing enterprise at their core.

As I recall, our big 5 at least, each have a policy to pay out 40-50% of after tax profit in the form of dividends with the proviso that no common share dividend will be paid until all contracted preferred share dividends have been paid. So, preferreds get preference.

Basically at the end of the day this is pretty much totally a non issue because the banks are pure profit generating monsters. Not those privately owned banks in the US but our publicly held banks. No Canadian chartered Sch 1 Bank has ever failed to pay a common share dividend and there is only 1 instance (I think 1) where a bank has ever reduced their dividend. BMO has been paying their dividends like clockwork for over 150 years and is the longest uninterupted dividend paying company in N. America.

So, yes there is no obligation to pay a dividend with most companies if there is simply insufficient after tax funds to do so but a conservatively managed company like one of our 5 sister chartered banks has always had the funds at hand to pay their dividends on commn shares.

There have been times like 2009-12 where the banks’ share prices have plummeted yet the banks didn’t reduce their dividend. Those are the times it really pays to load up on shares. The yield increases as the price drops but you know to all but a mathematical certainty that the share price will always rebound and yet your dividend won’t diminish while the share price tanks.

#99 D.D. Corkum on 01.16.18 at 8:22 pm

#15 Insider on 01.16.18 at 4:28 pm

“I work at the Bank of Canada, hiding behind a fake IP. I have insider information that Poloz will not hike tomorrow […]”

—–

1) I don’t believe for a second you work at BoC, troll.

2) If I’m wrong, I hope you lose your job. This kind of garbage erodes trust in the integrity of our financial institutions, and that’s bad for everyone.

#100 Implode implode on 01.16.18 at 8:23 pm

You dirty disgusting real estate market, I despise you! You shifty, shysters, lying media, crappy Poloz *****. How long do I have to keep hearing about a correction before it finally happens.

Blow
Up
Already!

I want power of sale signs
I want writhing in pain rate hikes
I want to hear about defaults
Audi’s being repossessed
Realtors crying.
I want the TRUTH.

“You want the truth?”
“Yes, I want the Truth, I deserve the Truth!”

“You can’t handle the Truth”

Ahhhh, raise those ratesssssssss.

Send in the B20 bomber!

#101 D.D. Corkum on 01.16.18 at 8:23 pm

PS. That is to say nothing about whether or not I think your “insider” prediction is correct.

#102 Damifino on 01.16.18 at 8:25 pm

#81 akashic record

Like war on anything ever worked.
—————————-

The war on polio and smallpox were smashing successes.

#103 Greasy Hair With Acne on 01.16.18 at 8:27 pm

Implode

Destruct

Do it now. . .

For the love of Saint Pete

R
A
I
S
E

Those

R
A
T
E
S

#104 Trojan House on 01.16.18 at 8:28 pm

The government giveth and the government taketh away.

#105 Ronaldo on 01.16.18 at 8:34 pm

Hey Shawn, just read your article in the latest Money Saver magazine which I’ve been getting now for several years. Good article by the way. So that’s what you look like.

http://www.investorsfriend.com/about-editor/

#106 akashic record on 01.16.18 at 8:35 pm

Bitcoin in context. Let’s hear the uproar…

This Fund’s Investment Peformance Rivals Bitcoin, Puts Warren Buffett To Shame

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-16/funds-investment-peformance-rivals-bitcoin-puts-warren-buffett-shame

#107 steph on 01.16.18 at 8:38 pm

#95 re., steph on 01.16.18 at 8:18 pm
If someone made bacon riding this scam knowing it was a fraud, I weep for them as well. They are simply greedy bastard taking advantage on the ignorant.

If they didn’t know it was a scam and made money, they are lucky ignorant.

Love your neighbour, don’t steel his money.

#108 Popcorn With A Side of Hair on 01.16.18 at 8:40 pm

If rates don’t rise, people wil not get serious and pay down their debts, they will just continue to spend and put their lifestyle on credit. Maybe they are the smart ones. I’m frugal and responsible with money, but having no fun, perhaps I am the idiot!

#109 acdel on 01.16.18 at 8:44 pm

#88 Nonplused

The ironic part is none of this needs to happen. Canada is so resource rich, we have what the world wants and needs but we are controlled, manipulated by a few very well financed idiots that so far have succeeded!

There is no reason as to why we cannot be the richest nation in the world; use those profits to create the most dynamic economy, a world that would envy us, why, because we are Canadians. We know what it is like to live in temperatures that many do not; that is our binding, we always help one another when it comes down to it.

Unfortunately we allow a few special groups with great influence to control our destiny. I suspect that things are changing.

#110 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.16.18 at 8:44 pm

DELETED

#111 Dewie McAllender on 01.16.18 at 8:45 pm

Imagine if Poloz surprized with a CUT! Could it happen? What would POTUS do? Wonder if Poloz thought about it just for fun.

#112 Steve on 01.16.18 at 8:50 pm

The sign of the shoe shine child. It happened for me when my 16 year old knew all about bitcoin and wouldn’t shut up about bitcoin. That was the moment I knew bitcoin was going to be the financial equivalent of a fidget spinner, or a vape full of cotton candy flavored hep A. I’m glad I’m too dumb to party with the crypto kids.

#113 No Fun Jim on 01.16.18 at 8:52 pm

Hi, I am Jim and I am not having any fun. I have a lot of money in the bank, but live a mediocre life. I have never driven a fancy car, 3 star travelling for me, but only if I’m feeling adventurous, beer budget with no side of champagne. I shop at discount stores and am generally not at all amazing, interesting or fun. I look at those in debt, and to be honest they don’t seem to be bothered by it and look to be having a lot of fun. They are dressed sharp, drive nice cars, vacation in the Turks, live in fancy homes and seem to be having the time of their lives.

Did I miss the memo, that savers are really just boring losers?

I’m like Nes Lessman from WKRP

#114 Steve on 01.16.18 at 8:57 pm

#81

I tried to put a dog in the fight but I could only find gerbils. So I taped them into a ball with legs poking out the bottom and a biting face out the front. As soon as the other guys pitbull smelled all that rodent fear it lunged. My gerbil dog construct ripped apart and my horde of fighters deserted the fray on their spangly, bendy legs. And that’s why I don’t buy crypto.

#115 acdel on 01.16.18 at 8:57 pm

#90 Danny

Wow, lighten up, you have no idea on how good you have it.

#116 Smoking Man on 01.16.18 at 8:58 pm

Before anyone puts on their Tin foil fedor. I have nothing to do with the New California :)

Looking forward to Poloz move tomorrow. Will he fall on his sword and chicken out.

Tough spot to be in for sure. If he spikes a quick death to real estate. If he holds off loses all credibility in financial markets. That still won’t save real estate. It will just be a slower death.

#117 Steve French on 01.16.18 at 9:03 pm

“Wherever the crowds go, run in the other direction.”
– Charles Bukowski.

(for Smoking Man)

#118 Yuus bin Haad on 01.16.18 at 9:04 pm

Only Big Jim and Billy Sol know about things blowing up.

#119 akashic record on 01.16.18 at 9:09 pm

#102 Damifino on 01.16.18 at 8:25 pm

#81 akashic record

Like war on anything ever worked.
—————————-

The war on polio and smallpox were smashing successes.

That wasn’t really a war – was it?

It’s also a very short time in the history of the viruses, they tend to come back, humility and respect goes a long way for all forms of life around us.

#120 Tony on 01.16.18 at 9:10 pm

Re: #3 Victor V on 01.16.18 at 3:59 pm

I own part of the short interest in all three. To me all three companies are worthless.

#121 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 9:22 pm

#86 Nonplused on 01.16.18 at 7:46 pm
Just carbon taxes alone are going to eat up that $200 a month, if they haven’t already. And if that doesn’t finish the consumer off the $15 minimum wage will.

Carbon taxes apply to everything you buy every step of the way because none of it gets done without carbon fuels. None of it. They can’t even keep the ice cream frozen without electricity, which is mostly carbon fueled. Your computer? Carbon fueled. Your iPhone? Ditto. It’s easier to understand your car and your furnace but it’s even your Doritos.

But that is the way lefty governments think. It doesn’t matter if people have the money to pay more taxes, raise them anyway
————

Yep. I was watching a YT vid the other day, the channel owner was talking about how he wanted to do a hunting vid. Problem was, YT would have likely de-monetized the vid if he showed deer getting shot and field dressed. He thought it was funny that he could do a vid on cooking up deer various different ways with no trouble, but showing how he got that meat was taboo.

We don’t want to think about eating cute furry deer, or oily Doritos.

I said before, it’ll be 2.00+ per litre by 2025, and most all of the increases will be taxes. But don’t worry, with all that extra cash being sucked out of your wallet, the air will be cleaner, also less earthquakes and volcanoes too.

#122 millmech on 01.16.18 at 9:23 pm

#86 Nonplused
Funny how they are taxing everything, which will lead to more price inflation, which will justify the continuous rates increase to control it.
I would not be surprised to see rate hikes of .50% in the near future to control rampant Government induced inflation(taxes, wage increases, fees, which always get passed onto the consumer), seems to me that everyone is trying to normalize rates as quick as possible.
I would be getting rid of debt as fast as possible, seeing what is coming in the future.
Myself I am looking forward to the fixed income part of my portfolio to start doing well as bonds and preferred shares keep riding the rates up.

#123 akashic record on 01.16.18 at 9:33 pm

#113 Steve on 01.16.18 at 8:57 pm

#81

I tried to put a dog in the fight but I could only find gerbils. So I taped them into a ball with legs poking out the bottom and a biting face out the front. As soon as the other guys pitbull smelled all that rodent fear it lunged. My gerbil dog construct ripped apart and my horde of fighters deserted the fray on their spangly, bendy legs. And that’s why I don’t buy crypto.

That was very poetic. Bitcoin as muse. Amazing. Got any Wall Street, Bay Street inspired pearl?

#124 Newcomer on 01.16.18 at 9:35 pm

#79 acdel on 01.16.18 at 7:24 pm
Love the block chain technology, those of you do not get it are in for a rude surprise.

Bitcoin is Bitcoin, I do not totally understand it but I see it like when oil hit rock bottom and people where saying that it is it for the product; guess what it’s over $60 now; I do not invest in Bitcoin only for the fact that I do not get it; do not count it out!
————

One difference that you might want to consider is that oil is an actual thing. $60 is a pretty good price for 160 liters of anything. You can’t get mineral water that cheap. And oil is useful. You can drive a car over a thousand miles on a barrel of oil. What can you do with a bitcoin?

#125 Old Ron the Realtor on 01.16.18 at 9:36 pm

Quiet exodus from Toronto continues. Boomer Owners move out, investors buy, and Millennial renters move in. Rents skyrocket.

1/3 of my companies deals are rentals. In the old days there was just a handful every month.

Don’t worry folks the market won’t crash, too much hot money looking for a home.

#126 PupPatrol on 01.16.18 at 9:40 pm

If anyone is serious about tracking prices is their local neighbourhood(s), I found zolo (either phone app or desktop version) to be the most user-friendly platform. There’s a heart icon you touch it to save the home, every day open up your “Saved Homes” and see which ones have been price reduced, and it will still be saved even if they remove the listing, it will just be moved down to “Removed” – this is important because you click on that removed home and open it up and it will say whether it was “Removed” or “Sold”. Now that should give you an indication.
Daily you should check “myrealitycheck.ca”.
There’s some cool things happening in a nearby neighbourhood in the LM where I’m noticing detached homes not moving and have seen 2 price reductions this week, a 30,000 cut on a rancher and 50,000 cut on a 3-story.
These are nice homes.
All you need is time, the train isn’t leaving the station anymore. Time to observe the sellers sit, then reduce, then more listings, then more reductions. Time.

#127 Old Ron the Realtor on 01.16.18 at 9:44 pm

TO SMOKING MAN:

I can still get a 5 year mortgage for around 3%. Lets not get carried away.

#128 The Greater Cauliflower on 01.16.18 at 9:51 pm

“Central banks, regulators and governments globally, as mentioned, will not allow an unregulated currency to undermine state-issued money.”

Not so, we still have Canadian Tire Money.

#129 Expat on 01.16.18 at 9:55 pm

@33 & 56: No, California does not have the highest poverty rate. The author of that article you posted uses the incomplete and misleading “supplemental poverty measure”, instead of the standard measure.

Why? Because the standard (real) measure shows California is doing just fine, despite the Federal government’s failure to control illegal immigration.

California is a high tax, high service, wealthy, urban liberal state. (This annoys conservatives.) It is so successful in fact, it’s got a bigger economy than almost every nation on Earth, including Canada. Almost double Canada’s!

If you want to see the worst states, start with the old Confederacy.

#130 akashic record on 01.16.18 at 9:59 pm

#94 Bitcoin is a scam

I actually know of no professional cryptographer who believes that Bitcoin and analogues are secure or valid as an electronic cash-like mechanism in the real world.

“There is a crack in everything / that’s where the light gets in”, said the great cryptographer, Leonard Cohen.

It also makes me nervous that the guardian of my analog cash, a “BigSix” bank allows 4-digit PINs that can also be used as online banking password, with all the “SEC” regulations, oversights and compliance.

#131 People are Strange on 01.16.18 at 10:03 pm

My money is on the smart guys like Warren Buffet.
Bitcoin is the worlds biggest pyramid scheme ever. The losers will lose.

#132 People are Strange on 01.16.18 at 10:04 pm

Buffett

#133 DON on 01.16.18 at 10:04 pm

Sooo….

Best Jobs report since 76, economy growing (??) most indebted households on record. NAFTA? etc

So if Political Boss and Poloz are worried about voters going underwater or not able to be discipline enough to cut back on frivolous stuff (remember when coffee used to be 35 cents with a breakfast and people brewed it at home or in the office – didn’t pay $5 -$9.0 a shot). A couple of my friends have house cleaners (lazy bastards). I think the big house owners can afford a rate increase (they bought with that in mind right?).

Most likely what they can’t afford is a down grade in perceived status and staycations.

If Poloz holds…what message does that send to investors. Canada can’t handle the rate hikes…why? Why would I invest in a Country that offers a low return on my money when others are offering more.

Another friend (closer to retirement – good secure job) is selling as the house is too big and so is the mortgage. Downsize for retirement and traveling.

Which leads me to believe not all boomers are close to paying off their mortgages before retirement, because they bought higher than they should off.

Whadda about those HELOCs – when will they come home to roost.

Rexx: Victoria = Little Dubai. That is cute and utterly wacko. Is that how you are selling these days. You just convinced not to use a realtor from the Victoria area. DUBAI – LMAO.

The tension out there is noticeable. As if everyone drank the reality cool aid and are holding their breath. The hang over is always a bitch.

#134 toronto1 on 01.16.18 at 10:05 pm

i say Poloz pulls the trigger– to much risk with Nafta teetering like humpty dumpty on a wall right now- the Americans will look at his failure to raise (subsequent drop in Loonie) as a subsidy to Canadian companies….

hilarious that a .25 increase in rates brings so much drama………

#135 Al on 01.16.18 at 10:22 pm

DELETED

#136 dr. talc on 01.16.18 at 10:25 pm

#23 I am with stupid on 01.16.18 at 4:42 pm
I did not know that Dolores O’Riordan had links to Ontario

—-

That celebrity musician death of Dolores O’Riordan is fake.
Much of the IRA shootings ‘and their bombs’ were fake. They blew up Louis Mountbatten’s boat, but I dont believe anyone was on it. The IRA is a British military operation to demonize the Irish

#137 april on 01.16.18 at 10:30 pm

#62 – CREA misinformation. Those numbers are not fact. Listen to Ross Kay, at Howestreet.com

#138 acdel on 01.16.18 at 10:30 pm

#124 Newcomer

No argument on oil; beleive me I get that.

As my post stated I have no interest in Bitcoin but the tech behind it; block chain.

I have no technical expertise on Bitcoin but I feel it is one not to ignore; me, I am staying out of it due to not understanding the complexities of it all, but many people have come across successful ones like have done that did extremely well on it; hey, one can even purchase a bucket of chicken from KFC nowadays; what do I know???

#139 Al on 01.16.18 at 10:34 pm

DELETED

#140 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 10:44 pm

#129 Expat on 01.16.18 at 9:55 pm

@33 & 56: No, California does not have the highest poverty rate. The author of that article you posted uses the incomplete and misleading “supplemental poverty measure”, instead of the standard measure.
———

Right.

The SPM IS the official measure used by the US Census Bureau, and has been for 6 years already.

So yes, I’m afraid California IS rife with poverty as determined by the most accurate and complete measurements available. The highest poverty rate in the USA.

“Since the publication of the first official U.S. poverty estimates, researchers and policymakers have continued to discuss the best approach to measure income and poverty in the United States. Beginning in 2011, the Census Bureau began publishing the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), which extends the official poverty measure by taking account of many of the government programs designed to assist low-income families and individuals that are not included in the official poverty measure.”

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2017/demo/p60-261.html

#141 Rational Observer on 01.16.18 at 11:00 pm

#131 People are Strange
My money is on the smart guys like Warren Buffet.

Indeed. The man. The owner of Home Capital Group.
That would be the company holding 2nd lien notes on many GTA home, secured by asset value. When the asset value tanks, the lien is called, no? Buffett will make a nice return.

#142 Where's The Money Guido? on 01.16.18 at 11:04 pm

DELETED

#143 Jon on 01.16.18 at 11:07 pm

My mortgage broker just locked me in for pre approval at 3.09 he said the b20 only applies to uninsured mortgages with over 20 percent down. Is he telling truth. I just applied to see what I could borrow and was kind of shocked. He said I could get just under a million with 10’percent down on 175k income. When I run a calculator it suggests a lot lower and the payments are astronomical. Doesn’t even seem affordable is this the norm when you go to a mortgage broker?

#144 acdel on 01.16.18 at 11:10 pm

#138 acdel

Excuse the fat finger mistakes; long day; good-night dogs!

Good post Garth!

#145 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.16.18 at 11:15 pm

Lol @ the DELETED. Didn’t think that comment violated any rules.

Now you know. – Garth

#146 Periscope on 01.16.18 at 11:16 pm

News release May 22, 2021

Vancouver real estate has risen 32% year over year. The impact of federal legislation banning the loaning of money to buy houses seems to have been ineffective. New legislation is planned to ban all statistics.

#147 DON on 01.16.18 at 11:16 pm

96 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 8:18 pm

#80 Massive Rate Guru on 01.16.18 at 7:26 pm
Folks. My prediction is that Poloz won’t raise. He’s scared and confused

——

No idea what Poloz will do. He should hike of course. I wish he’d hike rates by 0.5% just to freak Canadians out and show he means business. I’m old enough to remember 50 basis point rate moves. I bet you boomers forgot.

************************

Really…I am not as old as the youngest boomer…but I betcha most of them remember rates going up more than that.

SCM you have the internet and now can easily research topics…yet you don’t. Remember some day in the not so distant future some young kid (who thinks they know everything) will speak of the Millennials with the same disdain. You speculate what it was like for the boomers, but don’t really know. You don’t reach 30 and all of a sudden know everything. Life is a long education.

#148 DON on 01.16.18 at 11:31 pm

#109 acdel on 01.16.18 at 8:44 pm

#88 Nonplused

The ironic part is none of this needs to happen. Canada is so resource rich, we have what the world wants and needs but we are controlled, manipulated by a few very well financed idiots that so far have succeeded!

There is no reason as to why we cannot be the richest nation in the world; use those profits to create the most dynamic economy, a world that would envy us, why, because we are Canadians. We know what it is like to live in temperatures that many do not; that is our binding, we always help one another when it comes down to it.

Unfortunately we allow a few special groups with great influence to control our destiny. I suspect that things are changing.
*****************

Well Put!

#149 Newcomer on 01.16.18 at 11:46 pm

#125 Old Ron the Realtor on 01.16.18 at 9:36 pm
……

1/3 of my companies deals are rentals. In the old days there was just a handful every month.
—-

I’m wondering if you are old enough to have seen a housing market crash. If you are, you might remember that what you are describing is typical of a crash. People can’t sell, so they rent. The market is then flooded with rentals and, as happened in Calgary recently, rents plummet. This puts more pressure on people to sell, which drives down prices, and yada, yada, yada. (I’m also hoping you are old enough to remember what yada, yada, yada means.)

#150 DON on 01.16.18 at 11:51 pm

Food for thought:

My parents were a result of the post war sex fest! Early boomers, so growing up I witnessed their trends. One in particular.. plaid loggers shirts, jeans and beards oh yah forgot to mention the pyramid schemes…and then you have the Millenials not all (wouldn’t be prudent to speculate or generalize) but a fair share. Those not dressed in designer plaid and are wearing goose feathered jackets and are sporting hair styles much like the boomers did when they grew up.

Slightly different in look and feel but overall the same!

#151 Tony on 01.17.18 at 12:18 am

Re: #15 Insider on 01.16.18 at 4:28 pm

If that’s true I hope Poloz enters his resignation at the end of his speech tomorrow.

#152 Smoking Man on 01.17.18 at 12:46 am

Identity politics defined.

Think what we want you too think. No matter how ridiculous the thought. Agree on every single narrative or we will crush you.
……

Sorry but it must be my serbian dna im an strong Individul with big nuts and toxic masculinity running through my bloodstream. I can’t join you.

If you study history. Prince Lazar. I feel it in my mind every day.

Google New California. Their is a reason the UCC sent me here.

#153 Smoking Man on 01.17.18 at 1:06 am

T2 getting more famous min by min.

https://www.facebook.com/MissingHarper/posts/918930294942890

#154 Tony on 01.17.18 at 1:40 am

Re: #9 Glenn Taylor on 01.16.18 at 4:16 pm

When killing off the U.S. dollar fails to create any inflation as a last resort they’ll float “coupon books” with designated things that the coupons will buy for free. A variation of helicopter money.

#155 NoName on 01.17.18 at 2:30 am

It would be nice to see 95¢ dollar so I can take vacation again. Reise them rates mr governor.

#156 NoName on 01.17.18 at 3:16 am

#50 Stan Brooks on 01.16.18 at 6:07 pm

Now that you mentioned that what I call “double b” word.

https://youtu.be/I7VQNjnKRAQ

#157 NoName on 01.17.18 at 4:20 am

big bright light…

http://www.businessinsider.com/blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-just-sent-a-warning-to-ceos-everywhere-2018-1

#158 Pepito on 01.17.18 at 4:47 am

#56 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 6:26 pm
#16 Calico Jack on 01.16.18 at 5:09 pm
I normally don’t post in the comments section but I saw this article in the LA Times and had to share it. It seems to show that the State Government of California has been able to do pretty much what it wanted for the longest time (a very liberal agenda). Here are the results:

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-jackson-california-poverty-20180114-story.html
_____________________________________

The author of this article is a fellow of the Pacific Research Institute, a right wing think tank funded by the Koch brothers. It is political propaganda.

#159 NoName on 01.17.18 at 6:06 am

interesting

https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO/status/951587137735999489

#160 theoryAndPractice on 01.17.18 at 6:30 am

#126 PupPatrol on 01.16.18 at 9:40 pm

Alternatively visit :
housesigma.com register or change fonts to smaller with (ctrl -) without registration ; it is possible to see the contract dates and prices terminated/altered for given address. All games played are visible…

Indeed, it looks like , they read my previous comment months back…

#161 Xpat on 01.17.18 at 6:54 am

Ohhhhh boy… truly the greatest fools

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/buying-properties-for-school-aged-kids-comes-with-pitfalls-experts-warn/article37427082/

#162 maxx on 01.17.18 at 7:07 am

#6 Axe Boy on 01.16.18 at 4:09 pm

“Could we use it to fix the economy?

http://www.luerzersarchive.com/en/magazine/commercial-detail/23721.html

:-), :-) and :-)!

You’d effectively be repairing the very same part that cb’s have been employing to manage the economy since around ’92. So, no.

But very funny.

#163 maxx on 01.17.18 at 7:11 am

#10 See Dawg on 01.16.18 at 4:22 pm

“Haha – this is great news to the savers like me.
As it crumbles I will fly in and scoop up the bargains!!”

Eric? If so,welcome!!!

#164 I’m stupid on 01.17.18 at 7:13 am

Bitcoin is trading under 10k US. Nothing to prevent it from going to zero because it had no value to begin with.

#165 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 01.17.18 at 7:20 am

#152 Smoking Man on 01.17.18 at 12:46 am
Identity politics defined.

Think what we want you too think. No matter how ridiculous the thought. Agree on every single narrative or we will crush you.
……

Sorry but it must be my serbian dna im an strong Individul with big nuts and toxic masculinity running through my bloodstream. I can’t join you.

If you study history. Prince Lazar. I feel it in my mind every day.

Google New California. Their is a reason the UCC sent me here.
……………………….

Dude, That was so cool the way you outran those 4 guys with the butterfly nets. I didn’t think you had it in you. Is Betty Ford gonna take you back ?

#166 millmech on 01.17.18 at 7:32 am

Anyone else notice those that got “burned in the markets” around 2008 are now going all in to the said “fixed”markets.
I do not understand it, the market has made very nice returns for the past ten years while they sat in cash waiting for it to come back.

#167 Jay on 01.17.18 at 7:36 am

Canadians owe $1.71 for every dollar of disposable income they have — a new record high

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/debt-income-1.4448098

#168 Shethat on 01.17.18 at 7:43 am

I’m not sure following this blog has given me much except anxiety issues – it may have spurred some of our decisions forward. Sell our primary residence, check. Pay off HELOCs,(we owned 4 properties and all had LOCs) check. Move into smaller more manageable residence, check. However, we have taken money left after paying off all debt and invested it into a 4 unit, new build in the core of our city. The way we see it – people are going to need a place to live, close to where they work (no need for a car) and short term rentals close to the hospital for docs and medical interns plus one unit for ourselves to keep an eye on things and help buffer the ever tighter regs in the STR industry. Essentially we’re hunkering down and preparing for the worst. Only thing really worrying us is qualifying for a mortgage once the new build is finished in April; most likely we’ll be back to the mortgage broker again. Housing has worked out very well for us because we diversified, bought low and sold higher on properties with positive incomes. Not too bad for newbie landlords that always had to qualify at 5% or higher – banks wouldn’t touch us but private lenders do – at 11% and up. Hard to believe folks bought at the very top of what they could qualify for, on a home with no income and expected rates to stay the same forever. Thats no way to live. Yikes.

#169 maxx on 01.17.18 at 8:07 am

#46 Kat on 01.16.18 at 5:57 pm

“Rexx I grew up on the island just outside Victoria. It has never been called little Dubai, perhaps less weed smoking for awhile.”

Realtards are gonna need weed – lotsa weed.
Maybe they can come up with more bs expressions, slogans and mind-messing truthiness, given all of the spare time they’re coming into.

#170 TurnerNation on 01.17.18 at 8:07 am

Today’s the day, our true rulers the elite global bankers say Jump. And we ask How high Sir?

Maybe afterwards Blog Dog Poloz will be called into service for Her Majesty (the owner of all our land and money), as was Carney. Maybe he already is…

As Cramdown used to warn: Now Youse Can’t Leave.
The debt trap has been set. The boot is coming down to smash our faces. As usual.

#171 Victor V on 01.17.18 at 8:10 am

Bank of Canada must ‘put their foot down’ amid record household debt

https://www.bnn.ca/bank-of-canada-must-put-their-foot-down-amid-record-household-debt-1.970450

The Bank of Canada is being urged by a Bay Street money manager to “put their foot down” in a bid to stamp out Canadians’ insatiable appetite for debt.

“When it comes to consumer debt, you know what? We tell people to pay down their debt, we tell them to stop borrowing; but they keep doing it,” said Gareth Watson, director of Richardson GMP’s investment management group, in an interview with BNN Wednesday morning prior to the central bank’s rate decision.

“And they’re going to keep doing it, ’cause if you keep offering them free money – or I should say cheaper money – they’re going to take it.”

#172 Victor V on 01.17.18 at 8:15 am

‘Bitcoin is deciding whether this is the moment to crash and burn’ — down another 12% this morning

http://business.financialpost.com/technology/blockchain/update-2-bitcoin-jolted-by-regulation-worries-falls-7-pct-on-extended-selloff

LONDON/TOKYO — Bitcoin skidded a further 12 per cent on Wednesday, marking an almost halving in value from its peak price, with investors spooked by fears regulators could clamp down on the volatile cryptocurrency that skyrocketed last year.

The price of bitcoin, the world’s biggest and best known cryptocurrency, fell to as low as US$10,0000 on the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp exchange, the lowest since Dec. 1.

#173 TurnerNation on 01.17.18 at 8:36 am

#152 Smoking Man yup all which matters here in Kanada is:

1. What you might be wearing on your head.
2. What’s in your pants.
3. Your preferences in the bedroom.

Depending on these you might be given a voice. Or a job. Or nothing.

Just spend spend spend.

#174 Bitcoin "investors" line up for bread on 01.17.18 at 8:51 am

Under $10K??

This can’t be!!

Bitcoinnaire and the other cointards told me that they know better than all the bank chairmen in all the lands of planet Earth who just don’t “get it” and that we’re headed to a bajillion!

Please cointards, I need your encouragement.

#175 neo on 01.17.18 at 8:53 am

According to Zolo.ca average prices are higher in Milton than they are in Toronto. How is this possible? Milton prices have grown the most in the GTA so far this year. Why?

#176 Down and Out on 01.17.18 at 8:56 am

Why tax carbon now when we will need all the green house gases to offset the earth,s cooling Milankovitch orbit .

#177 No Fun Jim No 2 on 01.17.18 at 9:01 am

#113 No Fun Jim. I showed my wife your post and she thought I wrote it. I can totally relate — I could have copied 8 out of the 10 points you made. My wife tells me change is good — I may have to change….life is too short. BTW, my name is Jim too!

#178 ANON on 01.17.18 at 9:17 am

Coinybitz losing their luster.
Real-time bubble implosion here. Could be tulip-fast, so not a lot of popcorn may be required.

On the front page of BNN, dude tells us that:
“When it comes to consumer debt, you know what? We tell people to pay down their debt, we tell them to stop borrowing; but they keep doing it”
Gee, it must be a moral flaw of the people, not a logical conclusion of non-existing interest on impossible to keep promises. Anyway, normalcy will come relatively fast here also, whether we want it or not, but it will be the ugliest normalcy ever.

#179 Spaccone on 01.17.18 at 9:25 am

#24 Derrie McDrew on 01.16.18 at 4:46 pm
How long till the mary jane stocks trace bitcoins path or are they going moonward?

=================================

That will be slightly more interesting because instead of millennials who think they have twice the IQ points than the general population, you have Canadian hedge funds that have been going in heavy on mary jane stock and bond financings.

#180 IHCTD9 on 01.17.18 at 9:26 am

166 millmech on 01.17.18 at 7:32 am

Anyone else notice those that got “burned in the markets” around 2008 are now going all in to the said “fixed”markets.
I do not understand it, the market has made very nice returns for the past ten years while they sat in cash waiting for it to come back.
______

Herdonomics, FOMO, Human nature, greed.

#181 Alex P on 01.17.18 at 9:32 am

Garth… Correction: 77 homes in TORONTO proper, not GTA

#182 Gravy Train on 01.17.18 at 9:45 am

“As the chart [in the attached link] shows, [Bitcoin’s] nearly 60-fold increase during the past three years was truly extraordinary.

“It dwarfed the Nasdaq Composite Index’s gain during the headiest days of the 1990s. Going further back, it comfortably outstripped the Mississippi and South Sea bubbles of the 1700s. It even topped the Dutch tulipmania of the 1630s, though that last comparison should be taken with a grain of salt given the scarcity of recorded tulip values. (The chart includes prices for just one varietal; consistent post-peak figures were unavailable.)”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-17/did-bitcoin-just-burst-how-it-compares-to-history-s-big-bubbles

#183 jess on 01.17.18 at 9:46 am

duality :two becoming one /the snake eats its tail… “one is all” so which serpent is eating whose tail?

truth and reason or sagans demon haunted world

james wrote in response to scm jan 16 :
“In Chinese philosophy, yin and yang (yīnyáng, lit. “bright-dark”, “positive-negative”) describe how seemingly opposite or contrary forces may actually be complementary, interconnected, and interdependent in the natural world, and how they may give rise to each other as they interrelate to one another. Many tangible dualities (such as light and dark, fire and water, expanding and contracting) are thought of as physical manifestations of the duality symbolized by yin and yang. The two of you need each other to survivor. So there you have it SCM & SM are Yin & Yang I’m pretty sure I know which one is SM.”
============================
Why University of Massachusetts at Boston , McMaster …and the shuttering of Confucius Institute
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/16/how-china-infiltrated-us-classrooms-216327

#184 jess on 01.17.18 at 9:48 am

Larry Fink, CEO of $6.3 trillion manager BlackRock, just sent a warning letter to CEOs everywhere

Alex Morrell

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink on Tuesday sent a letter to CEOs of public companies outlining his expectation that they start accounting for their effect on society.
BlackRock, a $6.3 trillion asset manager, is doubling the size of its investor-stewardship program, which aims to engage with companies rather than rely on proxy voting.
“Society is demanding that companies, both public and private, serve a social purpose,” Fink wrote.

#185 BillyBob on 01.17.18 at 9:55 am

Sitting here in Gatwick waiting for my flight to PRG to see Her, pondering the mysteries of a glass of macro-brewed ale. Loving the snark from the Bitcointards who are smarting from their big losses.

Funny how they all bought when it was so low and so are still like, WAY UP, boy that was lucky! lol

Hopefully Ace Goodheart will try and explain jet fuel to me again, that would be good too.

Always entertaining, this blog.

#186 IHCTD9 on 01.17.18 at 10:00 am

#159 NoName on 01.17.18 at 6:06 am
interesting

https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO/status/951587137735999489
___________________________

Heh, I can smell the fear!

#187 yorkville renter on 01.17.18 at 10:01 am

Up she goes!

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/01/fad-press-release-2018-01-17/

#188 Milkman on 01.17.18 at 10:04 am

#15 Insider on 01.16.18 at 4:28 pm
I work at the Bank of Canada, hiding behind a fake IP. I have insider information that Poloz will not hike tomorrow because it’s not politically viable for the property-ownerss in Vancouver and Toronto.

Man, we are so lucky to have an Insider! Good call! LOL

#189 Poloz manned up on 01.17.18 at 10:05 am

Hopefully on the return to sanity.. Thank god.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-1.4490918

#190 Victor V on 01.17.18 at 10:06 am

BREAKING: Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 1 1/4 per cent

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/01/fad-press-release-2018-01-17/

#191 SimplyPut7 on 01.17.18 at 10:15 am

#15 Insider on 01.16.18 at 4:28 pm
#18 Insider on 01.16.18 at 4:33 pm

Did you want to redact those comments today?

Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

#192 IHCTD9 on 01.17.18 at 10:23 am

#158 Pepito on 01.17.18 at 4:47 am

The author of this article is a fellow of the Pacific Research Institute, a right wing think tank funded by the Koch brothers. It is political propaganda.
__________________________________________

C’mon, clearly the Author did not make the assertion, he is pointing out the US Census Bureau Statistics on poverty.

Does KOCH also fund the US Census Bureau?

Don’t get me wrong – the article is indeed propaganda, BUT – it is none the less FACT based. The statistics are clearly noted as having come straight from the USCB.

There comes a time when the best course of action is to just admit what is obviously looking like the truth.

#193 yorkville renter on 01.17.18 at 10:24 am

What people fail to understand is that the global economy doesn’t give a flying f##k about home owners in Toronto or Vancouver.

You think we’re going to destroy our economy because some idiots overbought at low rates? Why does anyone EVER think it’s different “this time”?

#194 Smoking Man on 01.17.18 at 10:24 am

Watch listings explode now.

#195 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.17.18 at 10:27 am

Mr Poloz Risin?

Luckily I re-upped last July for five years fixed at 2.59%.
Thanks Garth!

#196 I’m stupid on 01.17.18 at 10:29 am

Simplyput7

#15 Insider

He must not know how to read or he’s deaf maybe blind too. He’s would make a terrible peeping Tom.

#197 Ray Skunk on 01.17.18 at 10:30 am

Example of peanut gallery comment over at CBC:

“THANKS for screwing Canadians over!”

Spot the guy who is one of those who can’t afford his mortgage payment beyond one month.

Saddens me deeply that these people have a vote.

#198 LivinLarge on 01.17.18 at 10:31 am

“Down…” “Why tax carbon now when we will need all the green house gases to offset the earth,s cooling Milankovitch orbit .”…seems like we’ve more than offset it already doesn’t it?

#199 Ian on 01.17.18 at 10:33 am

Happy BoC DAY EVERYONE!!!!

The Plozzer and Wilcko are back on the train!! Go savers. Lump of coal to homeowners!

US Senate revoted to back Jerome Powell. His first day is 3 Feb.

#200 yorkville renter on 01.17.18 at 10:34 am

#192 – I didn’t read the article, but warmer environments usually have more poverty because it’s easier to be poor when the weather is nice.

It’s much harder to be poor when it’s minus 30 outside.

#201 Smoking Man on 01.17.18 at 10:37 am

One of my kids is in Sales of descresionary vanity items.
Quite expensive.

Since April consults have been in a huge decline. Hes tje best salesmen in this huge corp. I trained him. Head office has doubled the advertising budget. Still no traffic.

It’s called negative wealth effect from housing market
He s looking for another job.

Son 2 has just opened a rehab center. He sucks at closing deals. Gives it away. Compationate fool.

How do I get these competitive brothers to talk to each other.

I’ll let them figure it out.

#202 Deplorable poodles on 01.17.18 at 10:42 am

Party like it’s 2009 yawn Jack em baby the poodle is waffling again

#203 InvestorsFriend on 01.17.18 at 10:45 am

We Even Remember Just What We Want To Remember

#84 Doug t on 01.16.18 at 7:41 pm claimed:

Yes crypto currencies are volatile now and I don’t understand it at all – BUT it is the future – remember way back when warren buffet dismissed that crazy “internet thing” – time will tell but technology will not be stopped, it never is for better or worse

RATM

****************************************
I should not let this and a similar Buffett comment the other day go unchallenged.

Buffett certainly never dismissed the internet or tech companies. He simply said that he himself was unable to value them and so he declined to invest. Look, he has been best friends with Bill Gates since around 1990. He has had a lot of good things to say about Amazon and Jeff Bezoes for years.

Now, my memory may be faulty too, but I have followed Buffett extremely closely since the late 90’s. (If he knew just HOW closely he might be disturbed.) I read his annual letters religiously and more than once each. I watch him on TV every chance I get. I attended his meeting in Omaha in 2003.

So, I am certain that Doug’s memory is quite wrong here.

It highlights the point:

Not only do we tend to believe what we wish to believe. We even remember what we wish to remember in order to support and justify our current views.

We are all susceptible. In stocks I try to overcome it by doing analysis and math and sticking to relatively lower risk companies.

Our views contain a TON of inertia. In order to get through our days we can’t reexamine the evidence constantly. So, we mostly dismiss contrary evidence. (Some of do it rudely, you know who you are.)

Charles Darwin I believe said that when he saw contrary evidence with his own eyes he was obliged to write it down immediately otherwise his subconscious would purge the contrary evidence.

#204 Howard on 01.17.18 at 10:47 am

Time to load up on more ZPR?

#205 EmmEmm on 01.17.18 at 10:54 am

#15 Insider on 01.16.18 at 4:28 pm
I work at the Bank of Canada, hiding behind a fake IP. I have insider information that Poloz will not hike tomorrow because it’s not politically viable for the property-ownerss in Vancouver and Toronto.

Thank you for the comment, it certainly helped the moisters breath a bit easy last night.

#206 Smoking Man on 01.17.18 at 10:55 am

It’s all about importing votes.

https://www.facebook.com/AlexanderEmerickJones/posts/10156167015403459

#207 I am with stupid on 01.17.18 at 10:57 am

Yes, the rate was increased, but somehow CAD managed to go down both against USD and the Euro today with oil at par.

TSX gains 1/3 of DOW today.

The tale of the 2 economies.

#208 Smoking Man on 01.17.18 at 11:01 am

Just say no to a one world govt.
Ying and Yang must be in balance. Can’t let either one win or it’s over for everyone.

https://www.facebook.com/203805062990264/videos/1714023661968389/

#209 nice call Garth on 01.17.18 at 11:09 am

:)

#210 john Ademi on 01.17.18 at 11:11 am

All the younguns at work this morning discussing how they are going to handle their upcoming mortgage renewals.lol loveit

#211 Cookie Monster on 01.17.18 at 11:16 am

From what I am aware, as much as 50% of the mortgages are coming up for renewal this year. Borrowers could be seeing an increase in their mortgage rates by as much as 1%. With an average mortgage balance of about 210K, annual interest charges up $175/month for mortgage holders.

If the BOC continues their plan by adding on an extra 0.5% this year, this will add an extra 88/month in payments.

70% of Canadians are home owners, with over 60% of home owners having mortgages. Which means these changes will impact over 42% of Canadians.

Essentially, pulling billions out of the coffers of Canadians with a few changes to the rates.

As the debt levels stand now, it is not sustainable. Either Canadians need to start making more money or debt gets paid down.

Not sure we can all find higher paying jobs with the Robots coming for our jobs.

#212 Ace Goodheart on 01.17.18 at 11:21 am

Up a quarter, with more hikes likely to come. This sort of positive momentum is like a freight train….very hard to stop when it gets going. Looks like people who are saying we won’t see 2% mortgages again in our lifetimes are probably right.

#213 For those about to flop... on 01.17.18 at 11:24 am

I’d like to buy a vowel,actually I’ll buy two…

M43BC

“How Much Money the Highest Paid CEOs in America Make.

The stock market continues to set record highs, and the Republican tax cut is about to hit workers’ paychecks in February. The new tax law also impacts skyrocketing executive compensation, which made us wonder how a CEO compensation correlates with the company’s financial performance. We created a new graph to find out.

We took our numbers from 24/7WallSt, which tracks things like executive compensation on a regular basis. We put each of the 25 highest paid CEO’s on a scatterplot graph, where the vertical axis corresponds to the CEO’s personal earnings and the horizontal matches the company’s annual revenue. We then sized each point on the graph to the size of the CEO’s salary—the larger the circle, the more he or she makes. Our viz makes several different trends in executive compensation readily apparent.

There’s a clear trend in the middle, where a company’s annual revenue parallels its CEO’s salary. Starting with Meg Whitman ($32.9M) from Hewlett Packard, and moving all the way to Mark Hurd ($41.1M) at Nike, there’s a substantial cluster of CEO’s whose pay increases as their companies’ revenue increases. This suggests a linear correlation: as the company grows and generates more money, the CEO is rewarded with more money too. That makes perfect sense.

But here’s another obvious fact about our graph: there are examples where a CEO’s compensation is out of line with the company’s performance. This can cut both ways. Brian Roberts ($28.6) from Comcast and Virginia Rometty ($32.3) from IBM both seem relatively underpaid for how large their respective companies are. On the other side, Thomas Rutledge ($98) from Charter Communications and Leslie Moonves ($68.6) at CBS both appear to excessively overpaid—they’re way above everyone else. Rutledge makes $268,000 every single day, counting weekends and holidays. That’s hard to believe.

It’s also worth pointing out that there are a lot of huge companies missing from our graph. Where are companies like Facebook or Amazon? They take a radically different approach to executive compensation, focusing instead on stock options. Mark Zuckerberg from Facebook literally makes $1 a year. Jeff Bezos from Amazon makes about $1.7M a year with a base salary of only $82,000. But don’t shed a tear for these billionaires—Bezos’ personal net worthshot up by $2B after Amazon bought Whole Foods. Not bad for a day’s work.

Top ten Highest Compensated CEO’s in USA
1. Thomas M. Rutledge $98M @ Charter Communications $29B

2. Leslie Moonves $68.6M @ CBS $13.2B

3. Fabrizio Freda $47.7M @ Estee Lauder $11.8B

4. Mark G. Parker $47.6M @ Nike $34.4B

5. Mark V. Hurd $41.1M @ Oracle $37.7B

6. Robert A. Iger $41M @ Walt Disney $55.1B

7. Safra A. Catz $40.9M @ Oracle $37.7B

8. David M. Zaslav $37.2M @ Discovery Communications $6.5B

9. Robert A. Kotick $33.1M @ Activision Blizzard $6.6B

10. Margaret C. Whitman $32.9M @ Hewlett Packard Enterprise $28.9B

Some CEOs clearly make a killing even though they don’t work for the largest or most profitable companies. It raises important questions about the value these individuals contribute to their respective employers. That being said, making a quarter million each day—every day—is great work if you can get it.”

#214 aa5 on 01.17.18 at 11:28 am

People in Ontario look at California and the class society they have created, by driving out the middle class or otherwise crushing them with costs..and the people in Ontario want that too. And Ontario is eagerly putting in the same policies.

The big difference is California has tremendous amounts of world beating high tech corporations there. California can fund literally millions of poor people with all sorts of subsidies.. as well as afford a vast government workforce, because California is actually that rich, with room to spare.

#215 Howard on 01.17.18 at 11:33 am

#212 Ace Goodheart on 01.17.18 at 11:21 am

Up a quarter, with more hikes likely to come. This sort of positive momentum is like a freight train….very hard to stop when it gets going. Looks like people who are saying we won’t see 2% mortgages again in our lifetimes are probably right.

————————————–

Surely the rates will come down again the next time the market crashes? Maybe in 10-15 years.

I’m distinguishing of course between a garden-variety recession (for which we are WAY overdue, and likely to arrive in the 2-3 years) and a major crash.

#216 gary smith on 01.17.18 at 11:40 am

#168 Shethat on 01.17.18 at 7:43 am
Only thing really worrying us is qualifying for a mortgage once the new build is finished in April; most likely we’ll be back to the mortgage broker again. Housing has worked out very well for us because we diversified, bought low and sold higher on properties with positive incomes.
___________________________________________

Ummm…its worked out so well that you need to go to a private lender to get a loan because you may not qualify for a mortgage via a traditional bank?

Hunh?

#217 John Dough on 01.17.18 at 11:44 am

Not sure if ads are ok here?

For sale: One barely used, solar-powered Bitcoin generator. High-speed quad-core, play Armaggedon™ (single player only – be a “mul”) during the Armageddon.

Best offer, won’t last long …..

#218 45north on 01.17.18 at 11:46 am

But what are the odds Stephen Poloz will pull the trigger? Yuge, apparently.

I’d say 100%

The Bank of Canada raised its key lending rate by a quarter percentage point to 1.25 per cent Wednesday, the third time it has moved its benchmark rate from once-record lows last summer.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-1.4490918

Who will pay the wages of sinful borrowing?

pretty much the whole of the GTA:

– households who own multiple properties 14%
– flippers, speckers and dumbass amateur landlords, say another 14%
– 49,000 realtors, mortgage brokers, supernumeraries, another 14%
– those who would be in deep trouble if their expenses increase, 48%

so far the reaction of the politicians has been to attack small business but this attack is at odds with what they profess which is “strength is diversity”. They don’t mean diversity of business – they mean diversity of cultures, races, sexes – anything but business. What they are doing is enforcing a great uniformity – homogenization.

politicians like Bill Morneau and Kathleen Wynne saw that the whole of the GTA was going to be squeezed and so were they. Now the squeeze is on – what we need is leaders who guard the social fabric not spending their time trying to unravel it.

#219 IHCTD9 on 01.17.18 at 11:58 am

#109 acdel on 01.16.18 at 8:44 pm

Unfortunately we allow a few special groups with great influence to control our destiny. I suspect that things are changing.
_________

I think it is important to put the above into a real world context.

The special groups bombard us with their agenda, we the people have a choice. The SJW’s, Feminazis, the climate Change Zealots, the Unions, are all trying to get you to vote for their candidate of choice. They’ll say anything true or not, divisive or not, hateful or not. Whatever it takes. They want to get their laws on the books, and they need you to put their candidate in the drivers seat.

It all boils down to individual Canadians.

The voter is responsible. When things are good, no one gives a rip, and will be swayed by selfish, narrow focused, personal ideologies. Not till times are tough will folks snap back into focus and start caring about their current and future condition.

Hence the time honoured maxim: “..things will get worse before they get better”

#220 millmech on 01.17.18 at 12:01 pm

#211 Cookie Monster
A lot of people will be locking in for five years at 3-4%,but in five years could very well be renewing at 10-12%.
Try to sell your property for what you paid for it at 2% rates and thinking that someone will take on that debt at 12%.Slow melt for five years and then a sharp drop and then no change for at least five more years

#221 april on 01.17.18 at 12:02 pm

#146 – real estate spin! so misinformed and so dishonest.

#222 april on 01.17.18 at 12:05 pm

#143 – mortgage brokers get a percentage of your loan.. the bigger the loan the more they get, as I understand…be wary!

#223 re., 174 on 01.17.18 at 12:08 pm

Under $10K??

…….

you spoke too soon, ..jumping and down with glee? :)

back above 10k…like magic

#224 Victor V on 01.17.18 at 12:09 pm

Gotta love the home page of the BNN site today. The rate hike news has exploded everywhere on the screen.

https://www.bnn.ca/

#225 Donny on 01.17.18 at 12:09 pm

You failed to note that graph is data tracking BC Price since the day it began to trade in the corrupt CME COMEX Futures cesspool… where Mega Banks are allowed to call the shots as “market makers” and regulators look the other way while they use massive leverage to bully commodity prices with impunity.
Not a fan or an investor, just making the point that the madness got out of control… Futures was the fix (all about re-directing Gold investments to keep prices under control).

#226 Giver - AB on 01.17.18 at 12:16 pm

#86 Nonplused on 01.16.18 at 7:46 pm
Just carbon taxes alone are going to eat up that $200 a month, if they haven’t already. And if that doesn’t finish the consumer off the $15 minimum wage will.

Carbon taxes apply to everything you buy every step of the way because none of it gets done without carbon fuels. None of it. They can’t even keep the ice cream frozen without electricity, which is mostly carbon fueled. Your computer? Carbon fueled. Your iPhone? Ditto. It’s easier to understand your car and your furnace but it’s even your Doritos.

But that is the way lefty governments think. It doesn’t matter if people have the money to pay more taxes, raise them anyway!
——————————————————————-
I think you might be over reacting Non-plussed. I live in AB, I’m curious and I like data so I tracked what aspects of the carbon tax I could and how it would impact my family of 3. In 2017 we used 1548L of gas to fuel my Rav4. The carbon levy at $0.045/L cost me $69.64 for the year.

The carbon levy is broken out clearly on my ENMAX bills. The 2017 total for the carbon levy to heat my 2500sqft SFD was $100.94. The total cost on those 2 things for all of 2017 was $170.58 or $14.21/mo.

In 2018 the carbon levy is going up by 50% so that means I’ll be in the range of $21-22/mo if my usage is similar to last year. I don’t dispute that fossil fuels go into pretty much everything and I realize that this analysis is far from complete. I don’t like paying more and it is certainly fun to bitch about the carbon tax but it is hard to argue that the carbon levy on gas or home heating fuel has had any impact on my family’s finances or lifestyle.

#227 PastThePeak on 01.17.18 at 12:22 pm

Well, Poloz did raise the rate, although very reluctantly (based on statements) and I would say no rate increase likely in March unless a further set of unemployment records & increases in inflation.

Too bad. Although such rates are normalizing way to late (starting 8 years after the last recession), at least it was following the better-late-than-never. Now it seems like any rate increases will require overwhelming evidence they are required – rather than pursuing the path of normalization.

I can’t understand why pundits/analysts/media take the position that with Canadians in so much debt, the only proper course of action is to keep rates low (which spurs more debt). I guess that is where the expression “you can’t fix stupid” comes from…

#228 IHCTD9 on 01.17.18 at 12:25 pm

#214 aa5 on 01.17.18 at 11:28 am
People in Ontario look at California and the class society they have created, by driving out the middle class or otherwise crushing them with costs..and the people in Ontario want that too. And Ontario is eagerly putting in the same policies.

The big difference is California has tremendous amounts of world beating high tech corporations there. California can fund literally millions of poor people with all sorts of subsidies.. as well as afford a vast government workforce, because California is actually that rich, with room to spare.
______________________________________

They also have laws limiting their taxation powers and debt/deficit levels.

AFAIK, here in Ontario, the sky’s the limit.

If we had laws like that in place, we would have been downgraded 5X more than we have been. S&P knows Ontario can always just raise taxes to fix their problems…

#229 james on 01.17.18 at 12:27 pm

#208 Smoking Man on 01.17.18 at 11:01 am
Just say no to a one world govt.
Ying and Yang must be in balance. Can’t let either one win or it’s over for everyone.
https://www.facebook.com/203805062990264/videos/1714023661968389/
………………………………………………………………
Listen and learn little grasshopper Smoking Man Yang. One could not exist without the other, for each contains the essence of the other. Night becomes day, and day becomes night. Birth becomes death, and death becomes birth. Friends become enemies, and enemies become friends. Such is the nature of us who believe, you have gone to the dark side little Smoking Man. You do not expand your perception of reality beyond your own little black dot.

#230 Rooster on 01.17.18 at 12:27 pm

#204 Howard on 01.17.18 at 10:47 am
Time to load up on more ZPR?
********

Not sure about that one…..
Since inception in late 2012, ZPR’s annual cash distribution dropped from 64 cents to 46 cents as the prefs reset lower. They are going to play catch-up with rising rates for awhile as they slowly reset. Still better than bond income, but my worry is when all the bank prefs convert to NVCC . Deadline is 2022 but it is happening now. What barrel will BMO scrape to keep up appearances?

Still free money as long as the prefs don’t get hammered in a market correction/decline/crash. Depends on your time horizon …. who calls their kid Howard nowadays?

#231 Renter's Revenge! on 01.17.18 at 12:51 pm

#197 Ray Skunk on 01.17.18 at 10:30 am
Example of peanut gallery comment over at CBC:

“THANKS for screwing Canadians over!”

Spot the guy who is one of those who can’t afford his mortgage payment beyond one month.

Saddens me deeply that these people have a vote.

===================================

Everybody has their say, whether you agree with them or not. That’s the downside of democracy. Churchill said it was the worst form of government, except for all the other ones.

I guess that guy must not have been speaking for savers (or bank shareholders) who are going to benefit from higher rates.

Oh well. To each his own.

#232 Howard on 01.17.18 at 12:51 pm

#230 Rooster on 01.17.18 at 12:27 pm

#204 Howard on 01.17.18 at 10:47 am
Time to load up on more ZPR?
********

Not sure about that one…..
Since inception in late 2012, ZPR’s annual cash distribution dropped from 64 cents to 46 cents as the prefs reset lower. They are going to play catch-up with rising rates for awhile as they slowly reset. Still better than bond income, but my worry is when all the bank prefs convert to NVCC . Deadline is 2022 but it is happening now. What barrel will BMO scrape to keep up appearances?

Still free money as long as the prefs don’t get hammered in a market correction/decline/crash. Depends on your time horizon …. who calls their kid Howard nowadays?

————————————–

I did notice that ZPR performed disappointingly the past year despite the rate hikes, but I don’t know how else to directly play rising interest rates?

It’s a middle name…and since I’m approaching middle age, my parents named me well before “nowadays”. Any unfortunate baby named Howard today will at least be unique amongst the sea of Ethans and Liams.

#233 InvestorsFriend on 01.17.18 at 12:57 pm

People Don’t Want Contrary Facts, they want agreement

Giver AB at 226 on the Carbon tax gave facts and summarized:

In 2018 the carbon levy is going up by 50% so that means I’ll be in the range of $21-22/mo if my usage is similar to last year. I don’t dispute that fossil fuels go into pretty much everything and I realize that this analysis is far from complete. I don’t like paying more and it is certainly fun to bitch about the carbon tax but it is hard to argue that the carbon levy on gas or home heating fuel has had any impact on my family’s finances or lifestyle.

***************************************
Those on the other side of the debate are mostly ideologically against carbon taxes and against the NDP. They will not be swayed nor believe any contrary facts.

My experience has been similar to Giver AB’s. The carbon tax is tiny in my overall spending. Of course, no I don’t know the indirect effects on grocery prices and other things.

I do know the Alberta economy is recovering strongly.

I have always said that if my use of fossil fuels causes harms then I am quite willing to pay an estimated cost / tax to reflect that. I call it paying a “fully compensatory” price for what I use.

As for the impact on big emitters, I have no idea what the new carbon tax did because it in some way replaced older emitter levies and or is phased in. I have never heard anyone come up with a figure for the dollars (more likely cents) per barrel that the carbon or other emitter tax is costing the oil industry in Alberta.

#234 Victor V on 01.17.18 at 1:12 pm

One in three Canadians say they may be forced into bankruptcy if interest rates continue to rise.

https://www.facebook.com/FinancialPost/videos/10156136932043594/

#235 Stan Brooks on 01.17.18 at 1:49 pm

It seems it is over with rate hikes, BOC made it clear.

Hey, they might even cut citing NAFTA negotiations/uncertainty as the reason.

Peak ‘wealth’/valuations in Canada. Best time to dispose of any assets and move out.

#236 james on 01.17.18 at 2:03 pm

#234 Victor V on 01.17.18 at 1:12 pm
One in three Canadians say they may be forced into bankruptcy if interest rates continue to rise.
https://www.facebook.com/FinancialPost/videos/10156136932043594/
……………………………………………………………
Then they are not prudent and overextended themselves.
(CIBC is still offering 4.99 per cent.)

#237 james on 01.17.18 at 2:07 pm

#165 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 01.17.18 at 7:20 am

#152 Smoking Man on 01.17.18 at 12:46 am
Identity politics defined.

Think what we want you too think. No matter how ridiculous the thought. Agree on every single narrative or we will crush you.
……

Sorry but it must be my serbian dna im an strong Individul with big nuts and toxic masculinity running through my bloodstream. I can’t join you.

If you study history. Prince Lazar. I feel it in my mind every day.

Google New California. Their is a reason the UCC sent me here.
……………………….

Dude, That was so cool the way you outran those 4 guys with the butterfly nets. I didn’t think you had it in you. Is Betty Ford gonna take you back ?
________________________________________
Still LMAO………………………………
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJoCulItdxg

#238 re, Stan Brooks on 01.17.18 at 2:53 pm

Peak ‘wealth’/valuations in Canada. Best time to dispose of any assets and move out.

………..

nope, but got a basement apartment i can rent ya, Stan?

#239 Ubul on 01.17.18 at 3:14 pm

#237 james on 01.17.18 at 2:07 pm

Still LMAO………………………………
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJoCulItdxg

A Russian collusion video?

#240 Alex N calgary on 01.17.18 at 3:22 pm

Awesome! you’re on fire today, inspired post, often you have 1 or 2 really good bits but today it was all good! fantastic! Lets hope for some real change, it can’t hold out forever.

#241 45north on 01.17.18 at 3:22 pm

While both specialists believe the Fu versus Zhu case justifies investigation by the Canadian Revenue Agency, the Canada Border Services Agency and other enforcement bodies, they say the dispute between the families illustrates the range of common, mostly unpunished migration and real-estate scams occurring in Canada.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-explosive-b-c-court-case-details-seven-migration-scams

Danielle Park provided the link:

https://www.howestreet.com/2018/01/16/bc-case-reveals-7-scams-that-have-pumped-up-canadas-real-estate-bubble/

some quotes from Vancouver Sun:

Judge Susan Griffin scoffed at one family’s breadwinner, Guoqing Fu, for declaring to the Canadian Revenue Agency he had a worldwide income of only $97.11.

Chunqin Zhou referred to spending time in one of her Vancouver luxury houses as “immigration jail,” a term often adopted by well-off would-be migrants.

The two families from China initially started their application process to move to and invest in Canada by going through the provincial nominee programs of Prince Edward Island and Manitoba, jurisdictions which lack the popularity of Metro Vancouver and Toronto for migrants.

#242 LivinLarge on 01.17.18 at 3:34 pm

“Why doesn’t this RE market implode already, like geeeze.”…give up hoping or even wishing. A real estate market simply necer actually implodes. It slips a bit or maybe a fair bit and it has always stabilized and then slowly recovered. Even in 1990 thus was the case.today will be a little more and maybe a little longer than 1990 simply because in 1990 there were far fewer speculators with multiple SFH dragging them down.

As long as the average SFH owner living in their property is prepared to scrimp and save to keep their belived roof over their head then there just won’t be any wholesale walking away from those houses and that puts a floor on the dumping of houses.

Maybe a smart mind would calculate the real long term cost of sitting with a loss of equity and bail out but as long as the mind in question is living in the house as a principal residence then emotion will control their actions.

BRW, I read that 1/2 of mortgafes come up for renewal this year and that just seems odd. Are rhe majority of 1st mortgages really 2 year terms now? With all time low rares the last 5+ years did more than half the borrowers decide to be stupid and not lock their rates in at the low rates??? Or does this 50 include rate resets adjustable rates? Just can’t imagine so many folks not locking in at historically low rates.

#243 IHCTD9 on 01.17.18 at 3:35 pm

#226 Giver – AB on 01.17.18 at 12:16 pm

I don’t like paying more and it is certainly fun to bitch about the carbon tax but it is hard to argue that the carbon levy on gas or home heating fuel has had any impact on my family’s finances or lifestyle.

___________________________

Carbon taxes all in for me 40-50/mo – no big deal.

Increased bag tags for garbage 5/mo no big deal

Increased Property taxes 10.00/mo – no big deal

Tax on carbon tax for gasoline – 10.00/mo – no big deal

Plate sticker cost increases – 3.00/mo – no big deal

D license renewal new deal -4.00/mo – no big deal

Fishing license up – 1.00/mo – no big deal

Vehicle certification new deal -10.00/month no big deal

landfill closed, transfer station open – 38.00/mo – no big deal

Reduced tax benefits for kids – 20.00/mo

Insurance up – 5.00/mo no big deal

Fire permits up – 1.00/mo no big deal

That’s 157.00/month for me. I have to make about 200.00 to pay those increases. If I stuck that 200.00 into an RRSP making 6.0%, 20 years later I’d have 99,000.00. All these little increase here and there add up over time. The above is just a sampling. It is a big deal.

Do yourself a favour and don’t look at these individual increases in isolation. This is the way government works specifically to provoke the reaction you displayed. The boiling frog applies here. A little at a time, and no one notices…

#244 Rooster on 01.17.18 at 3:35 pm

#232 Howard on 01.17.18 at 12:51 pm
#230 Rooster on 01.17.18 at 12:27 pm
#204 Howard on 01.17.18 at 10:47 am
Time to load up on more ZPR?
********
Depends on your time horizon ….
———————————–
I did notice that ZPR performed disappointingly the past year despite the rate hikes, but I don’t know how else to directly play rising interest rates?
**********

When you find out let us know will ya?
I think the key is to buy something now that people will want later ;-) Certainly not bonds or bond proxies. Gold might turn with the herd, but it is just a wild guess. I actually bought a bit (first since 08) when the Bitcoin Boy was omnipresent. (Thank you, BB)

Banks are semi-solid, but my kids and ALL their friends bank where the fees are zero. Bank fees are a big profit component. Is that sustainable? Geezers like me will try and stay loyal, but they’re closing the small town branch near me. And profits are way up? I guess loyalty is a one -way street.

Nothing wrong with Howard as a middle name…

#245 InvestorsFriend on 01.17.18 at 3:37 pm

Surveys Provide Whatever Answers Are Wanted

#236 james on 01.17.18 at 2:03 pm
#234 Victor V on 01.17.18 at 1:12 pm

One in three Canadians say they may be forced into bankruptcy if interest rates continue to rise.
https://www.facebook.com/Fin

****************************************
As I have said, people think what they want to think and they always find evidence to support their view.

I strongly suspect that any survey talking about a one in three bankruptcy was full of loaded questions designed to get this sort of response. Same for ridiculous stories about $200 causing defaults or something.

Yes, higher interest rate will be a problem for many. But no, nothing remotely close to one in three will file for bankruptcy. The true number will surely be far closer to one in 300. I mean one in thirty would be a disaster, notions of one in three are simply laughable.

I hate to say it but this is basically fake news.

#246 Victor V on 01.17.18 at 3:45 pm

Pattie Lovett-Reid: Bank of Canada rate hike may fuel debt spirals

https://www.bnn.ca/personal-finance/video/pattie-lovett-reid-bank-of-canada-rate-hike-may-fuel-debt-spirals~1305640

#247 MediOgre on 01.17.18 at 3:48 pm

“Global commodity prices are higher, although the benefits to Canada are being diluted by wider spreads between benchmark world and Canadian oil prices.”

Interesting – where do we point the finger on that? Oil prices to CDN companies down…gas costs to CDN consumer still up….

#248 Victor V on 01.17.18 at 3:51 pm

RBC, TD raise prime lending rate after Bank of Canada move

https://www.bnn.ca/rbc-td-raise-prime-lending-rate-after-bank-of-canada-move-1.970851

TORONTO — The Royal Bank of Canada is raising its prime lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point in the wake of the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise its key interest rate target.

The increase raises RBC’s rate to 3.45 per cent, effective Thursday.

TD Bank followed suit Wednesday afternoon, also moving its rate to 3.45 per cent starting Thursday.

Changes in the prime rate affect variable-rate mortgages, lines of credit and other lending linked to the benchmark rate.

The Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate to 1.25 per cent on Wednesday following a string of strong economic data.

#249 NoName on 01.17.18 at 3:54 pm

@SM

all that muscleinity and you guys lost all wars you were in… Didn’t he lost Kosovo to Turks?

#250 BTC on 01.17.18 at 4:01 pm

back up to 11k

my prediction of 15k in a few days may be spot on…at worst next week

license plate: BTC

#251 NoName on 01.17.18 at 4:18 pm

Addendum to my previous post, shades bit of a bad light on car Lazar, and that was not intention, point I was trying to make is Lazar, stayed and fought turks to death to defend his country and his people, not like one that exiled.

#252 down_boy on 01.17.18 at 4:40 pm

Crypto.., just made a major buy among the alts. Every year before Asian new year it tumbles. Do your own research, rebels.

#253 Victor V on 01.17.18 at 5:01 pm

All big banks have now raised their prime rates:

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/royal-bank-raises-prime-lending-rate-to-3-45-in-wake-of-bank-of-canada-decision

#254 LivinLarge on 01.17.18 at 6:08 pm

“Banks are semi-solid, but my kids and ALL their friends bank where the fees are zero. Bank fees are a big profit component. Is that sustainable? Geezers like me will try and stay loyal, but they’re closing the small town branch near me. And profits are way up”…you have almost nailed it Rooster/Howard…almost.

Canadian banks, at least the top 5 have 5 broad business centres to earn from. If you really want me to break those divisions down then I will but it’s easy to find out for your self by looking at Google Finance for their corp. description.

That said, of all the business divisions, retail banking fees are the 5th largest of the 5 to generate revenue and the staff cost and other overheads are charged to that retail banking division.

So, yes indeedy, retail banking fees are a real profit centres for banks but still their smallest centre and essentially the shrinkage of their retail banking customer base to the discount/online banking options has had its biggest impact already so expecting any significant addition shrinkage is being over optimistic IMO. Some of course but we still have an aging population comfortable with dealing with live people.

Bottom line? Canadian Chartered Banks are fundamentally defacto arms of the Federal Government hence their federal charter and they extract a “fee” at every level of their 5 business divisions and are nothing much more than money printing machines that make money in good times or bad times.

The two Canadian chartereds with the best US retail and Wealth Management/Trust divisions are going to make out like bandits with the US tax changes unless Donny gets stupid and screws them as leverage in the NAFTA renegotiations.

#255 gary smith on 01.18.18 at 12:03 am

For those about to flop- this is my homage to you.

Ladner, BC. Go back to another dreary, wet spring day. Visited an open house, which was the second day of the listing. Boxy 1960s era garbage, with little updating and mearly a carport to keep the Kia-all for 1.1. Worst of the lot, and cheapest available SFH.

Realtor asks me, “are you ready to make an offer? One has already been submitted.”

___________________________________________
5295 CHAMBERLAYNE AVENUE, Delta, British Columbia V4K4C3
January 2018-listed for 1,098,000
July 2017-sold for 1,028,000

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1VlkzMg==

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/5295-chamberlayne-avenue

#256 gary smith on 01.18.18 at 12:14 am

Another boxxy flop in the making in Delta. This time in the undesirable neighborhood of Scottsdale. Bordering Surrey.

11288 79 Avenue-listed at 899,999
sold june 2016 @845,000

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1VkZTSg==

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/11288-79-avenue

#257 Shethat on 01.18.18 at 12:44 am

#216 Gary Smith re #168
Yeah – sounds weird but we had 4 houses – after selling 2 and paying off all loans etc we had about $400,000 to build another house. Its 4 units and we will be earning a good amount on each one. We will be left owing about $200 000 for the purchase and no other debts at all.
No matter how much we have in the bank our earnings don’t qualify us for a regular bank mortgage – we always have to go to a broker. Banks are of course, willing after a couple of years have passed – to take over. So after coming to a city with only $10,000 down (its all we had) on our primary residence/house – we took the cheap money, went to 4 houses (instead of buying shiny depreciating assets like cars and jet skis ;-) – now we will be down to 2 houses, and have a total of 6 units while living in one (so 5 income units) unlike most of ya’ll I’ve never made much money – still don’t – so this likely doesn’t sound like a big deal but with 6 units including our own and combined mortgages we should be clearing approx $4500 per month earnings and no payments outgoing for our own living space. Any money we earn on top is good but doesn’t need to fully sustain us. More than anyone ever needed to know but hey – thanks for letting me put it out there.

#258 kingbubbles on 01.18.18 at 10:24 am

I have held crypto and been involved with the technology for a few years now.

Digital currency (bitcoin) and the underlying and more valuable blockchain technology is here to stay despite the FUD pumpers. Look beyond the coin at the technology platform and the use cases. It is telling that the big banks are heavily invested in blockchain initiatives due to the potential. There may be speculation, greed, (tulip) bubbles, and scam initial offerings just like with conventional assets. Big deal. There are also some use cases that should solve some real problems and reward investors significantly. Time will tell in a couple years when things roll out.

This is a gold rush just like the internet was 20 years ago. A smart investor might want some of this in their diversified portfolio along with everything else. BTW, it appears to be on the stock exchange now to make it easier to invest in.

https://www.coindesk.com/the-first-blockchain-etfs-have-launched-on-the-nasdaq-exchange/

The Internet was here 20 years ago and clearly the future. Yet dot-com investors were handed their asses on a platter. Bitcoin is a rerun, despite the utility and future of the technology behind it. – Garth

#259 LivinLarge on 01.18.18 at 12:13 pm

“The Internet was here 20 years ago and clearly the future. Yet dot-com investors were handed their asses on a platter. Bitcoin is a rerun, despite the utility and future of the technology behind it. – Garth”…print this on a big poster in 40 pt. Helvetica and put on the wall behind your receptionist’s desk.

Those who choose to ignore history, are destined to repeat it.

#260 gary smith on 01.18.18 at 12:25 pm

#257 Shethat on 01.18.18 at 12:44 am
Yeah – sounds weird but we had 4 houses – after selling 2 and paying off all loans etc we had about $400,000 to build another house. Its 4 units and we will be earning a good amount on each one. We will be left owing about $200 000 for the purchase and no other debts at all….
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Got you! Location location location! Building close to a city’s core, where people work/commute makes sense.

Yes, this blog also worsens my anxiety!