Carefully

Jamie has a problem. Actually it’s his MIL’s issue. But being a husband, son-in-law plus a dude,  it’s on him to solve.

“She is 63,” he says, “with no savings at all and has struggled through her life. Likely won’t qualify for much CPP. She was nannying her son’s children for a number of years for free, but now she’s moved on and has found a contract job.

“I heard she was going to invest money with her day trader friend and was planning to buy some property so I quickly sprang into action based on the lessons from this site. Now we are going to set up a self-directed RRSP and TFSA. We will maximize RRSP contributions to ensure she pays no taxes over the next 3-5 years that will be her last working years. Also we will put as much as possible including tax refunds into her TSFA. I have emphasized that buying is a terrible idea as it will eat up her cash flow and she won’t be able to make tax/utility payments. But how do we invest carefully for a person who can’t afford to lose anything?”

J’s note came in on Monday about the same time news broke that we’re all pooched. Just two days before the Bank of Canada is likely to jack rates for the third time in a few months, there’s fresh evidence what housing and debt have done to us. An Ipsos survey found 33% can’t make their regular payments – 8% more than four months (!) ago. Scarier, about half of people – 48% – say they have less than $200 left at the end of the month, and pray nothing happens. Four in ten moan that they borrowed too much.

“The results highlight just how financially vulnerable Canadians are,” it says. “Even small interest rate increases result in escalating financial strain and anxiety.”

There’s more. One in five have a credit card balance larger than their life savings. An equal number say they over-spent on the last vacation. Almost 70% of those between 18 and 45 say their finances suck – all according to another poll (by Leger).

Okay, so I get it. This is January and lots of financial people are trying to scare us into making an RRSP or TFSA contribution. These kind of surveys crop up every winter, and there are more to come. But this year, it’s different. Worse. Epic.

Following the real estate binge, people are obviously swimming in debt. Mortgages hit $1.5 trillion, bloating along with the homeownership rate and condo sales. But now, that’s over. The stress test in 2018 will take a big toll, shutting tens of thousands out of the market. A homebuilder-exec buddy of mine in the GTA says his company (one of the giants) has gone from selling 500 new low-rise units a month last year to 5 this year. “Five!,” he said, holding up as many fingers. “There is no market. It’s dead. And we’re expecting a lot of people to walk away from their $150,000 deposits.”

And rates. Jeez. The third increase is 48 hours away, it seems. Two more after that during the year. Mortgages went up last week. Renewers are in for a shock, and more than 40% of all mortgages come up for refinancing in 2018. US rates have risen four times in a year. Odds top 80% for another increase in a few weeks. Bank regulators urgently tell the too-big-to-fail financial institutions they must increase capital reserves and deal with $300 billion in outstanding lines of credit. Those are obligations people have taken against homes, which may soon decline in value. Most of them are demand loans. Do the borrowers even know?

Savings? Forget it. Over 90% have not maxed their tax-free accounts and most of the money in there sits in ‘high interest’ savings or pay-nothing GICs. It’s why governments have been in a panic to pad the CPP (although nobody now over the age of 20 will benefit) and to push through that staggering minimum wage increase. The over-housed, forever-indebted, cash-poor and largely pensionless population is an economic timebomb. As the gulf between the 1% and the rest yawns ever wider, it seems politics has failed us. Governments helped create this imbalance – with low rates and housing incentives – and now as interest rates normalize, it’s the 99% who get whacked.

Well, Jamie, good on you for helping mom who has lived for 63 years but saved nothing. Starting from scratch, she doesn’t have enough to build any kind of ETF portfolio with, and will never get ahead with a savings account, bond or GIC. Best pick a low-cost balanced asset, like one from TD efunds (1.2% fee) or the fruit people (1.07%), then switch over to a self-directed exchange-traded fund basis when the number warrant. Make sure she applies for early CPP immediately, by the way. And tell her day-trading, property-pumping friend you will geld him upon sight.

Well, this is not good – if you considered waiting until the spring market to list your house. Toronto broker Alex Prikhodko has some mid-month January stats for us, and they suck. Could it be the B20 stress test is already starting to have an impact?

In the whole region a mere 77 detached sold in the last two weeks, with prices down $91,000, or 9.6%. Ouch. And it’s not even Wednesday yet.

247 comments ↓

#1 Stan Brooks on 01.15.18 at 5:10 pm

It seems the fancy socks guy was just shut off from another apology he was sooooooooooo eager to make.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/newsalert-toronto-police-hijab-cutting-155433599.html

What a clown.

Will he apologize to the Chinese community?
Don’t hold your breath.

Is this not making you sick already?

#2 slick on 01.15.18 at 5:15 pm

first?
I’m wondering if there are some doubters about the rate increase wednesday, judging by the movement in ZPR. Down 1/2 % today. I’m looking to add a little more to fill out the bottom of RESP account.

#3 Steve on 01.15.18 at 5:16 pm

1/3 of Canadians are unable to pay the bills. As a child I got a front row seat to the chaos of debt. My parents were credit card mad. Everything was on plastic. This would have been at it’s worst in the mid eighties. My father’s excellent wage at his union job as a machinist allowed him and my stay at home mother to spend plastic dollars as much as they liked. It came at an incredible price however. The stress from what they were doing caused a lot of fighting. That combined with a huge amount of drinking caused my childhood to become a nightmare. It worries me that the children will be exposed to this insanity. It really worries me.

#4 Willem Grange on 01.15.18 at 5:17 pm

First Posting! 1st! :)

#5 Flyboy on 01.15.18 at 5:20 pm

Went to TD today to lock in my current variable 2.95% rate (three years left on the term) the best they could do is 3.14% for the remaining 3 years. Do I lock in tomorrow at that rate or see what Wednesday brings?

#6 Ray Skunk on 01.15.18 at 5:25 pm

I tell you what, if this is indeed the case, then Canadians as a collective have an amazing poker face.

Went to a west Toronto mall weekend before last. Could barely find a parking spot; the place was packed. You’d think Black Friday, Christmas and then Boxing Week would knock the stuffing out of retail – nothing could be further from the truth.

Likewise, as I pass the food court by my office – every single morning the line for Tims is 40+ people deep (no protests here).

The optics on the ground are very different from the numbers in the survey.

Ah well, bring on the onslaught is what I say.

#7 John Smith on 01.15.18 at 5:28 pm

And in other news half the people polled by Ipsos who say they cannot weather any increase in their mortgage payment and/or have less than $200 at the end of each month, consider a $5 retail latte every day a necessity.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-your-starbucks-habit-really-costs-you.html

#8 conan on 01.15.18 at 5:29 pm

If you start to lose in the ax balance markets, always have a hole to jump into, don’t linger.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnDjOE9_Bjo

#9 Daveyboy on 01.15.18 at 5:30 pm

Canada what happened?

#10 Penny Henny on 01.15.18 at 5:32 pm

Love the pic Garth.
Insert rude comment here and get deleted.

#11 LivinLarge on 01.15.18 at 5:33 pm

OK, on this heart warming bit of cheer, do you happen to know where I can order blueprints for an ark online?

#12 Steve on 01.15.18 at 5:34 pm

First

#13 Dead Cat Bounce on 01.15.18 at 5:34 pm

I’m going to nap until April or May, even June maybe.

#14 R on 01.15.18 at 5:36 pm

Garth, I thought you lost your mojo. I guess today’s pic proves me wrong

#15 Steve on 01.15.18 at 5:36 pm

I just talked to a guy today he sell electrical wire for residential and commercial construction. He said after Christmas is was like someone turn out the lights, things have really slowed down.

#16 Drill Baby Drill on 01.15.18 at 5:42 pm

The perfect storm of rising interest rates, negative Canadian trade issues, 30%+ minimum wage increase, falling US dollar which is inflationary, rising carbon taxes, rising electricity rates and enormous Fed and Prov debt obligations. What could possibly go wrong???

#17 Penny Henny on 01.15.18 at 5:43 pm

TD E Funds.
1/3- TDB900- Canada- MER .33
1/3- TDB902- USA- MER .35
1/3- TDB911- International- MER .51

No trading fees. Zero. Early redemptions penalized.
Minimum $100 buy in per trade.

RRSP may not be best unless her income is high. TFSA better, lessens the risk of having GIS clawed back.

#18 Sam the Sham on 01.15.18 at 5:44 pm

***”We will maximize RRSP contributions to ensure she pays no taxes over the next 3-5 years that will be her last working years. “***

Good lord!! A 63 year old woman who can only look forward to OAS & CPP should not be investing in an RRSP under any circumstances!! She will be eligible for the old age supplement (OAS), probable for about $400 to $500 a month. Any money she takes out of a RRSP is not only fully taxable, but will reduce her OAS payment by 50% of the amount. Bad idea!!

Hardly. She need take nothing for 8 years, then it will be so little no government funding is affected. Meantime she cuts taxes and gets some extra for the TFSA. Stick to your day job. – Garth

#19 Penny Henny on 01.15.18 at 5:45 pm

Almost 70% of those between 18 and 45 say their finances suck – all according to another poll (by Leger).-Garth

///////////////////

It’s ok Garth. Blue Monday is behind us now.

#20 I’m stupid on 01.15.18 at 5:49 pm

I’ve been hearing the same thing. A lot of sales trailers shuttered and projects being cancelled. I’ve seen 10 people walk on their homes. Today I saw a for sale sign on a home that’s bare plywood on a subdivision. It seems everyone is running for the doors.

#21 The Great Gazoo on 01.15.18 at 5:49 pm

Sad to hear about the Jamie’s MIL, but sadly she has lots of company, maybe join a support group to help her and others through the tough times surely ahead.

2018 is going to be a very interesting year for real estate. Look forward to your on-going updates throughout the year.

#22 Westcoaster on 01.15.18 at 5:53 pm

DELETED

#23 Mean Gene on 01.15.18 at 5:56 pm

In the future, I see trailer parks out in the middle of nowhere being the “in thing”…

#24 JSS on 01.15.18 at 5:56 pm

She’s beautiful.

I didn’t read today’s blog. Pathetic anyways.

#25 earlybird on 01.15.18 at 5:57 pm

Why are people that hold these poll, so surprised at the results. If $200 is all that’s left over, then unfilled TFSA’s make sense. Its not so much rates moving up as a relentless combo of rising prices on everything, new taxes, shelter costs and stagnant pay. Debt has made up the difference. Although a few outliers overspend, the rest are just surviving. Most of peoples wealth is in their homes….if that is lost….most would be screwed. Agreed, it is a huge time bomb…

#26 Lost...but not leased on 01.15.18 at 6:02 pm

Today’s blog topic photo..

Is that Ontario premier or Turdeau’s Womens Equality Minister?

#27 Wallflower on 01.15.18 at 6:03 pm

And we will be seeing more of this over the next 10 years.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/carillion-canada-jobs-1.4487480

Seat belts.

#28 Adam on 01.15.18 at 6:05 pm

#5 Flyboy on 01.15.18 at 5:20 pm

Ever hear of a mortgage broker? 3.14% is pretty darn good for a big bank, too. Any rate moves (or lack thereof) on Wednesday will probably not change the 3.14%.

#29 Patricia Miles on 01.15.18 at 6:09 pm

Jamie,

There is a good balanced fund offered by the Mawer Funds. It is called Mawer Balanced Fund.
It has a fee of just under 1 per cent and has averaged an 8.6 per cent annual return since inception.
You will need to save up 5000 for your first purchase. I have had the fund for years and it has performed well.
You can check it out using Morningstar.

Maybe the son whose children she looked after for years can pitch in. Just saying!! That is a service that would cost a fortune if he had had to pay for it.

Good luck to her.

#30 Terry on 01.15.18 at 6:11 pm

I can’t say I sympathize with indebted Canadians. They brought this all on themselves. They thought they were all winners borrowing and piling up their debt loads higher and higher. Now Mr. Market is bringing them all down to reality. That reality is you have nothing but debt and UNREALIZED shrinking equity capital gains. And so much for too many people thinking rates will never go up. How is that working out for y’all?…..with more increases to come ………. and add to this the possibility the banks you all took out HELOC’s from are, as Garth says, demand loans and the banks can call in those loans any time they want!

Caveat Emptor Canadians ………….

#31 millmech on 01.15.18 at 6:13 pm

Now that is one nice axe

#32 TheDood on 01.15.18 at 6:16 pm

#6 Ray Skunk on 01.15.18 at 5:25 pm
I tell you what, if this is indeed the case, then Canadians as a collective have an amazing poker face.

Likewise, as I pass the food court by my office – every single morning the line for Tims is 40+ people deep (no protests here).

The optics on the ground are very different from the numbers in the survey.
___________________________________________

It’s the same here in YVR. Lots of sheople among us. I have co-workers who are STILL convinced that buying a detached, “just to get into the market” is a good idea. I usually just smile and nod, even though I’m thinking – “I can’t believe this person in front of me generates enough brain power to keep those lips moving”! Unbelievable! Go Jags and Go Vikings!

#33 Crazy Times on 01.15.18 at 6:17 pm

People living so close to the edge, man this sure smells similar to the 89~90 real estate crash. Basically by March 1990 the whole bottom fell out. This is going to be a perfect storm when this baby pops.

#34 MF on 01.15.18 at 6:20 pm

It was all so doom and gloomy until this part:

“Best pick a low-cost balanced asset, like one from TD efunds (1.2% fee) or the fruit people (1.07%), then switch over to a self-directed exchange-traded fund basis when the number warrant.”

-I imagine some announcer (or Garth) getting interviewed on TV saying that line. Suit on. Serious face. All business..then he advocates investing with “the fruit people”.

Hilarious.

MF

#35 David Pylyp on 01.15.18 at 6:20 pm

Lenders are moving to second mortgages; credit unions and finally private money

https://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/people/2018-forecast-will-the-housing-market-crash-by-years-end-235750.aspx

#36 Robbie Crabble on 01.15.18 at 6:21 pm

Wednesday is going to be so exciting! Bring your popcorn! ZPR poised and ready to move North East!

Teck Resources is also defying gravity, the world economy is looking strong.

#37 People Still Spending on 01.15.18 at 6:23 pm

I agree that on the surface everyone looks fine, the malls are always packed, can hardly get a parking space, people still going out to fancy dinners etc. Cheap credit has been like Heroine to the lower and middle class, they have become so addicted and now the dealer is raising his rates, to the strung out masses. I see a few overdoes of bankruptcies coming to a neighbourhood near you!

#38 MF on 01.15.18 at 6:24 pm

Will be interesting to see what Poloz does. On one hand the economy is booming (apparently) and he has every reason to justify (finally) rate increases. He can let everyone know he is serious about normalization at the same time so we can all prepare calmly.

On the other, if he does nothing (again) we know he is beholden to the indebted masses and RE cartel, and is committed to kicking the can down the road so someone else can deal with it.

I say he raises. The US is putting too much pressure on him to say no, even though he wants to soo badly.

MF

#39 Samuel on 01.15.18 at 6:24 pm

The MIL should invest in a gym membership and try to marry for money. She is basically out of time to really make a difference by working. Sad and scary.

#40 Doug t on 01.15.18 at 6:27 pm

Rate hike is needed – now if Trump pulls pin on nafta we are pooched

RATM

#41 Wait There on 01.15.18 at 6:29 pm

FAKE SURVEY

Look around, everyone is driving nice cars and have IPhones. If they were in the position like the survey says then they should be driving sh_t boxes.

#42 OttawaMike on 01.15.18 at 6:29 pm

Not in Ottawa. Prices up 5%/ sales up 10%.

https://m.whichmortgage.ca/article/ottawa-sales-break-december-record-201514.aspx

Those are December numbers, and why are you getting news from a mortgage broker? – Garth

#43 Periscope on 01.15.18 at 6:30 pm

The B20 is a non event in Vancouver. Vancouver is not Toronto. Houses continue to rise, as there are a billion people that want to live here.

#44 BlogDog123 on 01.15.18 at 6:33 pm

Can’t 3 old people, all living on OAS, CPP just move into a rented house/semi together. Now there are details like finding a saintly landlord who’ll just happen to have suitable living arrangements for these four destitute old folks… And then there’s the “being able to live with others” in smaller shared kitchen/accommodations, but isn’t this better than living alone in an apartment you can’t afford ?? How much monthly cash would this free up… How many not-as-destitute little old ladies are clinging onto their 3 bedroom houses with all those unused rooms/basements..

Now if someone would calculate 3 x GIS/OAS/CPP/TFSA savings and see what we come up with…

#45 OttawaMike on 01.15.18 at 6:33 pm

#27 Wallflower

How does that happen?
Carillion employed 10’s of thousands. Govt. Contracts. How badly run or corrupt were they?

#46 Zapstrap on 01.15.18 at 6:37 pm

Does she know about plenty-of-fish? Maybe hook one.
Might still be good looking in the soft light.

#47 paracho on 01.15.18 at 6:37 pm

Just rebalanced my rrsp and tfsa by selling a portion of my profitable holdings and purchasing some rate reset pregerreds !
Glad I sold my house 2 years ago !

#48 Guru on 01.15.18 at 6:41 pm

#6

People go to the mall to pass time, not to shop.

Also, timmies coffee is the last thing to cut for many people when having money problems. First thing is prob vacations or a new car, daily coffee definitely comes last.

#49 Ronaldo on 01.15.18 at 6:42 pm

Jamie, forget the RSP idea. That is just a tax trap for her. Sounds like she will be eligible for the guaranteed income supplement and she is only 2 years away from collecting it. All the RSP thing will do is reduce her GIS by 50 cents for every dollar she redeems from her RSP going forward. Better that she just stuff everything into a TFSA. As well, any CPP that she receives will also reduce her GIS by the same amount. In effect at least a 50% tax hit. This is why you need to have her talk to a financial planner.

Which isn’t you. Your advice is incorrect. – Garth

#50 Wrk.dover on 01.15.18 at 6:43 pm

No interest for savers or borrowers for a decade and what got overlooked in the initial analyses of the end result again????

#51 Howard on 01.15.18 at 6:43 pm

I was waiting for the skull and cross bones to return!

#52 Vince on 01.15.18 at 6:47 pm

Garth,
There are virtually no houses for sale.
Inventory is exceptionally low in the demand hoods of Toronto. Nothing for sale in bloor west village, kingsway, annex, Palmerston/little Italy, or riverdale. Search on MLS for a detached home for 1.5-3.0 million on MlS and you will see what I am taking about. Yes, willowdale and Richmond hill are different. But who wants to drive 1.5 hours each way on a good day and 3.0 hours on a bad day?

#53 InvestorsFriend on 01.15.18 at 6:49 pm

Canadian’s problems versus Canadians’ problems

Canadian’s debts are their own personal problem and are not Canadians’ problem.

#54 Howard on 01.15.18 at 6:59 pm

Her son owes her for having provided years of free daycare to her grandchildren. Eventually he should return the favour and invite her to live with him and his family.

#55 crossbordershopper on 01.15.18 at 7:00 pm

i see these 63 year old people every day. i dont understand why many people even try to save. for what? a few extra hundred a month over the minimum that every 65 year old gets.
there are many low income, no savings, no pension poeple who shouldnt even bother to save a nickel, 63 down and maybe 17 more, thats the way she should look at it. some of us were ment to be financial winners and some look after their grand kids, both have importance.
litterly millions of canadians, have their tims and relax . 300,000 people from quebec who live off the canadian goverment are currently in south florida. never saved a penny, and enjoying the sun,
for a guy who runs a business and is totally stressed all the time, trust me, its better to be poor and not have a worry in the world. the cheque arrives on the 27th of the month, every month like clockwork. I write my name on the front of the cheque, it shakes but i right up.
the whole thing about saving, diversification, bs is useless for many low wage, never made any real money in your life, never saved anything, went on some trips, smoke some weed, drink some, drive a used piece of crap but it works, watch some hockey etc crowd.
there are millions and millions, i understand that people should retire with millions or atleast 1 million. and you can tell them how to do it, but they wont, human nature is simple, enjoy know the hell with tomorrow.
so when you end up at 65 with nothing, waiting for the goverment cheque for some its same as always, for some, its quite a step down, and thats why some keep working after 65 to supplement their lifestyles.
so in conclusion. take a risk in life, anything, relationships, business, travel, etc, because if it works out your a winner, and if you loose, well your 65 on the minimum goverment pension living with your kids or a little 1 bedroom, for many, the minimum is enough. they aspire to nothing,.

#56 Howard on 01.15.18 at 7:02 pm

Am I the only one who feels as if those stats depict some sort of alternative reality? I don’t think I know anyone in such dire financial circumstances (to my knowledge anyway), but if you believe these stats, such people are everywhere.

#57 Ron on 01.15.18 at 7:05 pm

Anyone ever try walking into a mortgage re-financing with a checkbook in hand threatening to pay off the mortgage in full if they don’t get a better rate? Just curious if that would work.

#58 Tony on 01.15.18 at 7:07 pm

Jamie’s mother-in-law can get OAS and GIS at age 65 and play bingo every night. Lucky for her she’s close to 65 the Millennial generation will get nothing. P.S. I never had a debt so far in my life, I paid cash for everything. Never bought stocks on margin ever.

#59 Linda on 01.15.18 at 7:07 pm

#41 ‘Wait’ – you must not have been around too long & thus have not seen the outcome of a housing meltdown. I too used to think those who owned a nice house, fancy car, latest hot electronic gadget, wore new clothes etc. were o.k financially. Wrong-O. Debt to the eyeballs & when the bankers called in all those loans those fancy cars & houses were gone with the wind. No one actually owned anything, it was all of it borrowed. Expect to see the same outcome once rates rise, though the banks don’t want the houses or the cars. They want the money, honey:)

#60 Nonplused on 01.15.18 at 7:11 pm

Today’s photo challenge: Find the ax.

Jamie’s MIL is in a tough spot. The sad thing is there are thousands and thousands upon thousands of people out there who are in no better condition. I wish there were a way to fix the problem but unfortunately raising taxes, raising the minimum wage, raising CPP contribution (or taxes more appropriately), adding carbon taxes, etc., only compound the problem. You can’t put your carbon taxes in your TFSA.

Ever notice ever government “solution” always turns out to be more trouble than the original “problem” was?

Carbon taxes would be ok if there were such a thing as a reasonable alternative but for now carbon based fuels are the underpinning of the economy. You can’t do anything without them. We remain years and years away from having a viable and cost effective alternative, so this is nothing more than a tax grab.

And I believe it is a scam. If man-made global warming is going to cause a catastrophe and people in the know all accept that, how come you can still get a 35 year mortgage in Florida? The whole state is going to be under water soon, goes the thinking. The bankers obviously don’t think the oceans are rising to any significant extent. The CO2 is real, we can measure that, the warming is real, we can measure it, but so far it doesn’t seem to be causing any harm or those mortgages would not be written. Or maybe they’ve just got a short term outlook and figure once Florida goes under water we’ll have bigger problems.

Anyway, government solutions always create winners and losers. If you are lucky enough to get state funded housing, you win. If you don’t you sleep on the street. If you get a raise to $15/hour you win, unless you lose your job.

The only way that works to “lift all boats” is to have an economy that is growing as fast or faster than the population. If there is strong demand for labor, you don’t need minimum wage laws. Drive the unemployment rate down to 2% and $15 will occur all by itself. But you can’t legislate the problem away.

But that isn’t what the government is doing. Things like carbon taxes discourage industry because all industry needs power. High tax rates also discourage industry. Does anyone remember when CP moved their head office to Calgary because Alberta had a lower tax rate than Quebec? Well, they just might move back now.

I remember flying on a corporate jet to California one time and we stopped in Montana for fuel, the reason being that jet fuel was so much cheaper there. I imagine with carbon taxes now added to the cost airlines are doing everything they can to buy their fuel in the US where possible. You know you have reached silly-season when it’s cheaper to buy jet fuel in the US than it is in Alberta. Canada exports 3 million bbls of oil per day, mostly coming from Alberta. How is it cheaper to buy fuel in Montana? Taxes. We are taxed to death in Canada, and this is why what should be the richest nation in the world, isn’t. More taxes aren’t going to help.

#61 Tony on 01.15.18 at 7:14 pm

Re: #52 Vince on 01.15.18 at 6:47 pm

Once the prices start to really fall then people will list. Canadians are very slow to catch on.

#62 Trojan House on 01.15.18 at 7:19 pm

A friend of a friend said he had 20 bucks to his name. Fortunately his grandmother gifted him $600. Shortly thereafter he was showing us his new tattoo. Can anyone guess how much that tattoo cost? Yup 600 bucks. It’s okay though because he really wanted that tattoo.

#63 Neo-Puritan Right Wing segragationist on 01.15.18 at 7:20 pm

Question about the pic?! What part of the Ontario Health Curriculum is the teacher demonstrating to the class?

C’mon TDSB computer….Load the damn page already!!!

#64 Jungle on 01.15.18 at 7:21 pm

Why would your friend group the average price of condos, semi / townhouse and detach all together ?

Would be nice to see this separated.

#65 S.Bby on 01.15.18 at 7:23 pm

Meanwhile new condo towers in Burnaby Metrotown are sprouting up like weeds. The sales centres are all open and have a a steady traffic. I suppose no one told these buyers (flippers) that there is a problem.

#66 Neo-Puritan Right Wing segragationist on 01.15.18 at 7:23 pm

let the house prices fall in Toronto. No one wants to live in that socially toxic wasteland where there is an SJW feminist hiding behind every tree to accost a male, especially if he’s an outsider.

#67 Ronaldo on 01.15.18 at 7:32 pm

Which isn’t you. Your advice is incorrect. – Garth
————————————————————
I knew I shouldn’t have quit my day job.

#68 Eat Dirt Millenial on 01.15.18 at 7:32 pm

No Feeling Sorry For the Young “Know It Alls”. You Always Get What You Bought – Every time. Have fun trying to pay it All off over the next 40 years !

#69 Damifino on 01.15.18 at 7:35 pm

#65 S.Bby

Your observations match mine precisely. The condo business is roaring across the Lower Mainland, as far as I can see. Road lanes are choked with concrete trucks, new foundations are being excavated weekly and FOMO for sales signs are popping up everywhere. Beats me.

#70 Toronto Sucks on 01.15.18 at 7:42 pm

No houses in good hoods, what a bunch of crap. Toronto sucks, I left there last year and have never looked back. Weirdos, pollution, constant traffic, congestion, sirens, crazies, zero culture, just a whole bunch of whinny, easily offended dummies, who think they are hip.

#71 Ronaldo on 01.15.18 at 7:44 pm

#69 Damifino on 01.15.18 at 7:35 pm

#65 S.Bby

Your observations match mine precisely. The condo business is roaring across the Lower Mainland, as far as I can see. Road lanes are choked with concrete trucks, new foundations are being excavated weekly and FOMO for sales signs are popping up everywhere. Beats me.
————————————————————
According to Steve Saretsky there are over 33000 condo units under construction in greater Vancouver.

#72 Joker on 01.15.18 at 7:45 pm

Burn baby, burn!

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.15.18 at 7:48 pm

@#65 and 69
“The condo business is roaring across the Lower Mainland, as far as I can see. …”

+++++

B20 regs have been implemented for all of 14 days.

Give it 6 months and come back and talk to us in July when Canada’s biggest news will be the legally, stoned, blissed out, heavily indebted schmoo’s who will forget all their troubles and rack up the credit card on a Summer Holiday…….

#74 Milton on 01.15.18 at 7:49 pm

Ha ha ha, Milton is just dying a slow and painful real estate death. Only a handful of low end properties have sold, but the number of new listings ballooning everyday. Talk about a reality check. New homes listed now, that were bought off specs last year, selling for well below what they were purchased for by so called savy investors. Take away shyster fees and closing costs and many are already negative close to 100 grand. See ya later Milton.

#75 pay your taxes on 01.15.18 at 7:52 pm

Jamie’s good intentions will screw his MIL out of a lot of free money from the government. It’s like walking away from an indexed defined benefit pension plan and going it on your own. Noble, but foolish.

No RRSPs Jamie! Not a penny! Max out the TfSA because that doesn’t count as income when determining her eligibility for the guaranteed income supplement(GIS). She’ll also get GST cheques and a carbon tax rebate, pay no premiums for medical (in BC) and qualify for a free annual bus pass due to her low income. There are housing subsidies for seniors, though they have been rendered almost ineffective due to the rapid increases in rental prices.

Withdrawals from RRSPs count as income and reduce her entitlements.

Her income in retirement will likely be subsistence (no tax) and her RRSP contributions for the next three years will be modest. Therefore she can make contributions now, shelter and grow that money, eliminate income tax, use the refund in her TFSA and not face any RRIF withdrawals until the end of the year she turns 71. Then the income taken need only be 5% of a modest RRIF, with zero impact on her GIS/OAS eligibility. Non event. – Garth

#76 Smell Ya Later on 01.15.18 at 8:02 pm

Not sure, but the woman looks a bit too beefy for my taste. Looks like a few too many meat and potatoes on that Calgary girls plate. I like women that look like women.

#77 Love this Blog on 01.15.18 at 8:04 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/debt/one-in-three-canadians-say-they-are-unable-to-cover-their-monthly-bills-as-rate-hike-looms

#78 john m on 01.15.18 at 8:07 pm

What a depressing collection of misguided thoughts…think i will go mix another drink :-)

#79 Rate Fiend on 01.15.18 at 8:09 pm

One in three Canadians say they will go bankrupt if rates raise again hahahahaahahha

Poloz please show mercy!!

Hahahahaha

#80 Entrepreneur on 01.15.18 at 8:09 pm

It seems to me people have given up and are going along with the flow in a daze like they are doomed from the start. And will feel like an animal caught in a trap when the interest rates go up and especially when the realtors repeatedly said “buy now before the interest rates rise” or with the lure of “priced out” gig.

And this is really so sad that the government, banks, realtors think that this is all part of doing business.

Watched P&P today with Catherine McKenna speaking about the National Carbon Tax, how great it is for our children, grandchildren and how it is going to be implemented.

Does this mean no more jet flying for meetings on oil deals? Does this mean protect our oceans from oil spills in shipping? Does this mean to make manufacturing and refineries here to be more responsible?

Around here it is easier to live on welfare than working/worrying how to survive. This has being going on for a long time, about 30 years. Just at the other end of the retired folks who do not have any savings. A socialist country with the Liberal/Conservative pretending it is not.

Right now, many people are thinking of what is the point of trying. And many have already. Governments are in a dreamland world.

#81 Bling Bling Baby on 01.15.18 at 8:11 pm

Who wants a man with a big debt load, I like a man with a big wallet. Ca$h is King.

Gucci, Fendi, Prada purses, purchasing them finer things
Men they come a dime a dozen, just give me them diamond rings. I’m into a lot of bling, Cadillac, Chanel and Coach.

#82 Vanrentor on 01.15.18 at 8:15 pm

I was in Arizona in 2009 and the mall was packed. People never stop spending no matter how bad it gets.

The house we sold in July 2016 for $2.65 was relisted for $3.2 6 months ago. Lowered to $3m in December and today reduced to $2.75. They did a $300K reno. Pink snow for sure. Weird… I though houses only went up.

#83 Win not lose on 01.15.18 at 8:17 pm

DELETED

#84 Victor V on 01.15.18 at 8:18 pm

In the whole region a mere 77 detached sold in the last two weeks, with prices down $91,000, or 9.6%.

====

And let’s not forget….days on market….has shot up to 29.

This will not end well.

#85 Some Advice For the MIL on 01.15.18 at 8:18 pm

It’s very easy to separate a man from his money, and a lady of that age should know. Dress nicely, be a great cook, feed him well, tell him you need him, treat him nicely and viola you very own personal pension plan and a companion.

#86 Hugh Janus on 01.15.18 at 8:37 pm

Isnt jamies MIL that nice lady who says hi to me when i go into wallyworld?

#87 Kilt on 01.15.18 at 8:39 pm

Jamie

Don’t do anything.
Let he go the daytrader route and invest in some real estate. If you do nothing, you can’t be blamed.
If you do help out and things don’t turn out all rainbows and candy canes, then you will be blamed for the next 30 years.
Kilt.

#88 common sense on 01.15.18 at 8:42 pm

Smokie where are you to comment on Poloz’s decision or lack of Wednesday….?

We are in need of your wisdom (!)

#89 Hello on 01.15.18 at 8:45 pm

Thanks for the update, waiting for the implosion.

#90 Billy The Wrangler on 01.15.18 at 8:47 pm

Poloz can’t raise or 33% of Canadians go bankrupt. Cold turkey is not easy folks especially with an addictive drug like debt!

#91 mathman on 01.15.18 at 8:49 pm

re: #56 Howard

People can hide easily as long as they can refinance each year and take out “new” equity to pay off consumer debt. When the ability to refinance, take on a 2nd and or you have maxed all your unsecured credit – you will see you probably know a lot of these people. I know I do.

Too many people stick their head in the sand and hope the debt away. not if, but when the housing market starts sliding you will see.

I distinctly remember how precarious it got in 2008, when the housing market froze up for a few quarters – people were saved by the bell that time as rates were cut to near zero and you could unload all debt it a low rate loan and or refinance.

The Millionaire Next Door should be required reading for this blog – those that look like a million bucks never actually have it.

Math

#92 Smoking Man Is Gone on 01.15.18 at 8:49 pm

Yahooooo, now if we could just get rid of SCM too, we’d be whole again. I want Happy Housing Crash guy to post some more of his rays of sunshine.

#93 TRUMP on 01.15.18 at 8:49 pm

@$!#@$!#@$!#

Thats right.. I said it.

#94 Debt is making you happy on 01.15.18 at 8:52 pm

Just kidding

hah ahhhhh ha hahah hah ha.

To be in debt or not to be,
That is the question

Be FREE

#95 Ex-Cowtown on 01.15.18 at 8:53 pm

#41 Wait There on 01.15.18 at 6:29 pm
FAKE SURVEY

Look around, everyone is driving nice cars and have IPhones. If they were in the position like the survey says then they should be driving sh_t boxes.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The bank owns the car and the iPhone. I know several people who don’t have the cash to buy a $5K car but qualified to lease a $40K car. iPhone is on the TAB.

Not sure what part of up to their eyeballs in debt you don’t get.

#96 Debt is your friend on 01.15.18 at 8:54 pm

Just kidding

Ha ha ha haaaaaa ahhhh

#97 acdel on 01.15.18 at 8:56 pm

#6 Ray Skunk

I have noticed that as well; but have also noticed besides the old timers in the food court enjoying there retirement years, no one in the malls are smiling, they all have this miserable look on their faces, stressed, unfriendly.

Hey, no demand = no economy, I really do not like where this is heading.

Anyone that went through the 80’s and early 90’s gets it!

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.15.18 at 8:56 pm

Never mind rising interest rates and credit armageddon.

How about the article in The Economist ( page 47) titled “Snow – Washing”
Its all about the Vancouver Housing market attracting foreign criminals and anonymous homeowners “snow -washing” money
“In 2009 the RCMP estimated that up to $15 BILLION was being laundered in the country each year”
Why?
Because establishing a company is so easy!
Anti money laundering rules deal with banks, securities dealers, life insurance firms, etc…. a study has confirmed that only a fraction of the 2.5 MILLION legal corperate entities had accuracy checks performed.
Canadian front companies were being used to purchase assets including real estate “to legitimise unexplained money.”
Lawyers are also not obliged to report anything due to lawyer client priviledge.
As one lawyer bragged to an undercover cop, “Its 20 times safer to launder money in Canada than the US”

Nothing to see here folks….move along, nothing to see………..

#99 Ex-Cowtown on 01.15.18 at 8:57 pm

#90 Billy The Wrangler on 01.15.18 at 8:47 pm

Poloz can’t raise or 33% of Canadians go bankrupt. Cold turkey is not easy folks especially with an addictive drug like debt!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

It’s not Poloz’s call. The bond market sets interest rates. Poloz is like Trudeau; just another putz with a nice haircut.

#100 Grateful Boomer on 01.15.18 at 9:01 pm

Like Garth advised the RRSP contributions for her last working years is wise advise. You guys saying she loses later are simply incorrect. Thirty years ago I insisted my 1950s freshly divorced no pension stay at home Mom contribute the max amount she could afford yearly…..fast forward 30 yrs at 86 she living much like cross border shopper described….but with a small nest egg that gives her both security and the absolute joy to be able buy small but priceless gifts for her children grandchildren and a charity of her choice…listen to Garth Jamie

#101 Bald Man on 01.15.18 at 9:01 pm

I’ll date the MIL, I need a good woman. I’ll take care of you honey. I’m not attractive, but I am honest and caring and have a few nickels to my name. Garth perhaps you can start a side matchmaking site, for the economically challenged boomer ladies and the well established boomer men.

Sure. http://www.PlentyOfWrinklies.com. – Garth

#102 Smoking Man on 01.15.18 at 9:01 pm

My position is clear on Toronto Real Estate. Doomed.
No wage growth. Business punished. TFW flooding the IT sector reversing current healty billing rates..

If you write a plan to destroy the economy and culture teachers T2 and Wynne get an A++.

Speaking of teachers. I’m appalled at the TDSB. They just destroyed an 11 year old girl. The headlines of a girl getting her hajab getting cut off made the local news even down here in LA.

Who knows what that kid went through. Possibly late for school made up a story and boom. Shes a kid, they lie.

Politicians. SJW running running over grandmother’s to get their various ugly faces in front of cameras to show us how compassionate and wonderful they are.

Now this child will be harassed and ridiculed for years to come. This culture of identy politics is divisive as it is insane.

Why did TDSB feel compelled to rush to the media before a police investigation why did our politicians from all parties do the same.

NWO, UN has it’s vise grips firmly on Canadian society hell bent on dividing then destroying us.

That poor kid now has to deal with this shit. And so will the rest of us.

Happy Housing Crash.

#103 mathman on 01.15.18 at 9:02 pm

HELOC’s are part of the problem – my guess in this order is where you will see the cracks.

– Car loans – car loans in Canada are liar loans and based solely on your credit score – not a high hurdle to get a car loan anywhere in this country – when people wake up and realize they owe more than the car is worth they throw their hands in the air and wait for the repo man
-unsecured lines of credit – as the minimum pmts increase b/c rates rise, folks will start to become delinquent and you will see a big uptick in non-performing unsecured credit.
– credit cards – people will keep one and default on the others – how many people have large balances on multiple cards? more than you can count

then you will see Heloc’s and only once everything else in in arrears and or written off – people will be forced sellers of their homes and if they can’t sell – and come out net positive they walk.

That’s why this will lag – even if the SHTF today, you won’t see the carnage for 6 months. Prices will come down, but the blood in the streets a la the US in fall of 2008 can take some time.

Math

#104 Old Ron the Realtor on 01.15.18 at 9:02 pm

Garth. I love dogs, but gals in bikini’s are ok as well.

And to those who are critical of her shape, allow me to share a quote from my late dad (WW2, 1st Canadian Army Veteran) who said: “Women are like Scotch, they are all good, some are better than others”

#105 Victor V on 01.15.18 at 9:04 pm

CMHC’s CFO has ‘left’. Interesting timing.

https://www.bnn.ca/cmhc-shuffles-management-as-cfo-zielonka-leaves-1.968943

#106 Smoking Man on 01.15.18 at 9:07 pm

#88 common sense on 01.15.18 at 8:42 pm
Smokie where are you to comment on Poloz’s decision or lack of Wednesday….?

We are in need of your wisdom (!)
….

If he doesn’t spike he’s finished. No credibility and no trust from Capital Markets.

#107 Say What on 01.15.18 at 9:08 pm

Raise those rates baby! For your safety, please keep your hands and feet in the ride at all times.

Wooooooo

#108 Ryan E. on 01.15.18 at 9:21 pm

The best the government can hope for is that slowly rising interest rates gradually curb some of the bad decisions people make – past and future. Said people might offload a second property they can’t afford, lower expectations on the type of vehicle they drive, take fewer vacations, etc. That’s the best case scenario.

#@&* will really hit the fan, though, if they hear of a friend or friend-of-friend get their HELOC called in by the bank. In that case, there will be panic at the watercooler.

#109 steph on 01.15.18 at 9:33 pm

Ouch :(

#110 AB Boxster on 01.15.18 at 9:36 pm

So Canadians are royally screwed with their debt loads and overspending.

Not to worry folks.
T2 and his merry band of thieves have a cure for what ails Canada.

A national carbon tax will make things better.

http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/ottawa-pushes-ahead-with-detailed-plans-for-a-country-wide-carbon-price

Billy Moron says that taxing the shite out of carbon will make the Canadian economy flourish.

Had enough of the dazed sunny boy yet, Canada?

#111 Suede on 01.15.18 at 9:38 pm

For those about to vulch, we salute you.

Cash up, strap up.

#112 Victor V on 01.15.18 at 9:45 pm

#99 mathman on 01.15.18 at 9:02 pm
HELOC’s are part of the problem – my guess in this order is where you will see the cracks.

– Car loans – car loans in Canada are liar loans and based solely on your credit score – not a high hurdle to get a car loan anywhere in this country – when people wake up and realize they owe more than the car is worth they throw their hands in the air and wait for the repo man
-unsecured lines of credit – as the minimum pmts increase b/c rates rise, folks will start to become delinquent and you will see a big uptick in non-performing unsecured credit.
– credit cards – people will keep one and default on the others – how many people have large balances on multiple cards? more than you can count

then you will see Heloc’s and only once everything else in in arrears and or written off – people will be forced sellers of their homes and if they can’t sell – and come out net positive they walk.

That’s why this will lag – even if the SHTF today, you won’t see the carnage for 6 months. Prices will come down, but the blood in the streets a la the US in fall of 2008 can take some time.

Math

=======================

The boiling frog is a parable describing a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability or unwillingness of people to react to or be aware of threats that arise gradually.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog

#113 ben on 01.15.18 at 9:47 pm

https://www.google.ca/search?q=ft+nine+banks+lending+rigging

“Nine banks accused of rigging key Canada lending rate”

Follow the first link. CDOR rigged.

“The class-action lawsuit names nine big banks — Bank of Montreal, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, Scotiabank, CIBC, HSBC, National Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank”

In the FT which normally couldn’t give a damn about TD and BMO. Oh dear.

#114 CMHC CFO on 01.15.18 at 9:48 pm

CMHC today:

“Many of our leaders have been asked to take on redefined roles.”

CFO lost his job.
That usually isn’t a good indicator when that happens to a company, unless the CFO is old and retiring.

Things that make you go Hmm.

#115 Fish on 01.15.18 at 9:52 pm

Let the games begin!

#116 IHCTD9 on 01.15.18 at 9:53 pm

#41 Wait There on 01.15.18 at 6:29 pm
FAKE SURVEY

Look around, everyone is driving nice cars and have IPhones. If they were in the position like the survey says then they should be driving sh_t boxes

————-

Leases and long term, low interest financing

A brand spanking new Benz C series leases for less than 700.00/month, and 2017 3 series BMW’s are less than 600.00/ month, 2017 Audi A5 750.00/ month.

It’s not very expensive to lease a low end brand new luxury car. You can get 72/84/97 month financing terms too. I’ve even heard of 120 month loans for cars. HELOC’s I’m sure are also in use, especially in the GTA.

Grab a job at Timmies and enter ballerville, fake it till you make it!

#117 Dee on 01.15.18 at 9:59 pm

Crazy Times on 01.15.18 at 6:17 pm
People living so close to the edge, man this sure smells similar to the 89~90 real estate crash. Basically by March 1990 the whole bottom fell out. This is going to be a perfect storm when this baby pops.

—————————————-

Oh, do tell! March was when it was really noticeable? I remember the downturn but not timelines etc

#118 Mark on 01.15.18 at 9:59 pm

“Poloz can’t raise or 33% of Canadians go bankrupt. Cold turkey is not easy folks especially with an addictive drug like debt!”

How many Canadians “go bankrupt” if Poloz doesn’t raise? Just like lots of people are in a vulnerable situation if Poloz raises, many are in a vulnerable situation if Poloz doesn’t.

Remember, interest rates neither create nor destroy wealth. They just redistribute it.

#119 Mark on 01.15.18 at 10:00 pm

BTW, for the record, I think Poloz is going to go through with the hike on Wednesday. Even though the data and evidentiary support is abysmal and may even point closer to the necessity of a cut.

#120 Raging Ranter on 01.15.18 at 10:06 pm

Was at Canadian Tire tonight on Innes Road in Orleans. There are 7 units of a relatively new strip mall along Innes facing the the Canadian Tire lot. Four of them are empty with FOR LEASE signs in the window, including 3 right beside each other. And this in the “hottest job market in 41 years”, in a government town where the government has been on a hiring spree for two years. There were, a few months ago, clothing stores in all seven units. Now there is a Rickies, a Cleos, and one other one left.

This is what the poison of low interest rates leads to – massive overbuilding of both residential and commercial space. What are they going to fill those units with, with minimum wage going up to $15 an hour next year, when the stores that were there could not even make it through the busy Christmas season when they were able to pay $11.40 an hour?

I’m a chronic pessimist, but things are looking an awful lot like 1989. At the end of the 1980s, in pretty much every Canadian city, there was – like today – a seemingly strong job market and lots of shiney new buildings, but not enough businesses to fill them. Remember what the next five years were like? I do. They sucked.

#121 InvestorsFriend on 01.15.18 at 10:23 pm

It Beats the Alternative

The best investment plans would certainly be tax free and high average return and low fee and let’s throw in low volatility. (And very hard to achieve)

But… consider

Money coming out of an RRSP in retirement, no matter what the tax rate, is likely to be more useful than no money at all because none was saved and invested.

Money coming out of a portfolio in retirement that had been subject to high mutual fund fees is likely to be very valued and useful compared to those who saved nothing for retirement.

In short a less than ideal approach to retirement savings is probably still hugely better than saving and investing nothing which is not uncommon due to a variety of reasons.

#122 down_boy on 01.15.18 at 10:24 pm

#76 Smell Ya Later on 01.15.18 at 8:02 pm
Not sure, but the woman looks a bit too beefy for my taste. Looks like a few too many meat and potatoes on that Calgary girls plate. I like women that look like women.

It’s winter and there’s four seasons.

#123 InvestorsFriend on 01.15.18 at 10:25 pm

Quiz

Let’s say someone is in the 40% marginal tax rate but then starts drawing old age pension and is subject to the clawback.

What now, is their marginal tax rate?

#124 IHCTD9 on 01.15.18 at 10:26 pm

#49 Ronaldo on 01.15.18 at 6:42 pm
Jamie, forget the RSP idea. That is just a tax trap for her. Sounds like she will be eligible for the guaranteed income supplement and she is only 2 years away from collecting it. All the RSP thing will do is reduce her GIS by 50 cents for every dollar she redeems from her RSP going forward. Better that she just stuff everything into a TFSA. As well, any CPP that she receives will also reduce her GIS by the same amount. In effect at least a 50% tax hit. This is why you need to have her talk to a financial planner.

Which isn’t you. Your advice is incorrect. – Garth

—————
I think the OAS clawback starts at 70K or there abouts, she’s in no danger of that. I believe GIS is good for 2-300.00 month tops. Not enough work throughout life, so a crummy CPP cheque. Maybe 1500.00-1600.00/month?

This lady has a problem. Way too late for investing for a retirement income. If she’s in Toronto, she might not even make rent.

James best prepare for MIL to move in, she can keep house and pay a little rent. Wifey won’t let Mom live her golden years out in the alley.

#125 joblo on 01.15.18 at 10:28 pm

#110 AB Boxster on 01.15.18 at 9:36 pm

“Billy Moron says that taxing the shite out of carbon will make the Canadian economy flourish.”

After 150 years new name…..
Out: Kanada
In: Bohica

Bend over here it comes again!

#126 45north on 01.15.18 at 10:32 pm

Grateful Boomer: talking about his Mom: at 86 she has a small nest egg that gives her both security and the joy to be able to buy small gifts for her grandchildren

nice

Smoking Man: My position is clear on Toronto Real Estate. Doomed.

you called it – sold at the peak

Why did the Toronto District School Board feel compelled to rush to the media before a police investigation why did our politicians from all parties do the same.

it’s what they do

#127 Long-Time Lurker on 01.15.18 at 10:37 pm

#108 Mr Buyer on 01.15.18 at 1:41 pm
Heading back to Canada in a few months. Wife unsure, kids loving it. 50 years old and starting over after 15 years of self employment in Japan. High School Science teacher by trade but have done many things. Gotta land on my feet as unemployment is about the only way a guy can find himself being divorced by a Japanese wife. Where to go and what to do all big question marks. Please tell me Canada has not been entirely over run by neo-marxists in my absence.

>Avoid Vancouver, Victoria and maybe BC entirely. There’s a housing bubble about to burst here. The same goes for the Greater Toronto Area. Everything else should be fine.

#53 some dude on 01.14.18 at 11:08 pm
hi doggos, i’ve created portfolio, but was curious which Bonds (Corporate, Government, REIT) and at what ratio(if mix) to get considering current market situation. This is ~20% of 60/40 protfolio(40 part). much appreciate the advise.

>
20%
ZAG 10% (federal bond etf)
ZHY 5% (US corporate bond etf)
VSB 5% Short-return bonds

See if it needs adjusting after a year.

#5 Flyboy on 01.15.18 at 5:20 pm
Went to TD today to lock in my current variable 2.95% rate (three years left on the term) the best they could do is 3.14% for the remaining 3 years. Do I lock in tomorrow at that rate or see what Wednesday brings?

>Lock it. Rates will probably continue to go up.

>>This is all suggestive. Do your own research or find an expert. I’m just a blog commentator.

#128 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 01.15.18 at 10:45 pm

I say Smokin’ Man sets out a shingle for these tough cases: “Will trade forex for Jack” on a litte placard.

Won’t Wynne just legislate a wage increase for all if our baby Fed raise rates? I mean, it works for minimum wage so we can do it across the board especially for all those poor millennials who couldn’t figure out the risks of the bond market and never believed 1989 -1993 could happen again. That would align with “everyone gets a ribbon” schooling.

#129 Mark on 01.15.18 at 10:49 pm

“Let’s say someone is in the 40% marginal tax rate but then starts drawing old age pension and is subject to the clawback.
What now, is their marginal tax rate? “

Per:

https://www.taxtips.ca/taxrates/ab.htm

An Albertan has to earn >$145k of taxable income to hit a 41% combined bracket.

And OAS entitlement for an individual completely ceases at $122,843.

Hence, the marginal tax rate in such a scenario is identical.

#130 pay your taxes on 01.15.18 at 11:08 pm

#100 grateful boomer

30 years ago your 86 year old mother was 56, not 63 like the MIL in this story. Your mother had much higher interest rates and a longer period of time for those rates to work their magic. Nobody is advocating that MIL doesn’t save/invest, just debating which account to do it in.

#131 Ace Goodheart on 01.15.18 at 11:11 pm

This is why you always pay cash for houses.

People could still learn a lot from me.

The sickening feeling that you get when you think about plopping a mil or two of your own money for that crap house in a popular Toronto hood, is different from the elation and joy you get when you obtain the house basically for free, with someone else’s money and an easy monthly payment plan.

Oh and the hijab cutting never happened.

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.15.18 at 11:12 pm

@#92 Smoking Man who’s demise was greatly exaggerated

Please see #102 The original SM

“Politicians. SJW running running over grandmother’s to get their various ugly faces in front of cameras to show us how compassionate and wonderful they are.”

+++++

Our sock worthy PM resembles that remark….

#133 PastThePeak on 01.15.18 at 11:13 pm

Poloz won’t raise on Wednesday. The Kanuckistan $ is too high – too many negatives possible. Kicking the can down the road has become a Kanadian specialty.

#134 will on 01.15.18 at 11:14 pm

this from rob carrick g&m:

“someone who took out a $400,000 mortgage in early July, 2017, with a five-year variable rate of 2.5 per cent has already experienced a $101-monthly increase in payments. A quarter-point increase by the Bank of Canada this week would add an additional $52 a month.”

scary shit

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.15.18 at 11:15 pm

Happy Housing Crash Vultures !

A veritable feast of dead, empty homes awaits your carrion dining.

Enjoy!

#136 IHCTD9 on 01.15.18 at 11:15 pm

#110 AB Boxster on 01.15.18 at 9:36 pm

Had enough of the dazed sunny boy yet, Canada?
————-

Had enough in Oct 2015. Canadians in general might need another round though.

#137 Ace Goodheart on 01.15.18 at 11:17 pm

If you think about what is happening though, people are going to get completely screwed by this. They can’t increase their earnings, they are for the most part on salaries or set incomes. I never really considered it until I read this. I mean, my income is pretty much whatever I want it to be. Need more money, just take on more files, hire more people, it can be as high as I want it to be. And I invest it all anyway (no mortgages, no debt).

This blog post made me think a bit. How does a person with $200 per month financial wiggle room, handle a 3% interest rate increase on a 900,000 mortgage?

I guess they sell the house……

#138 Periscope on 01.15.18 at 11:19 pm

When people are forced to they will return the lease car, no trip to Mexico, no new skates for the kids, drop insurance, less eating out, no cable and on and on. When people say they’d be in trouble if interest rates rise is they’d have to stay in Edmonton all winter with no trip South. Some folks will be in trouble , some will just have to return to a bland simple life with few extras. Unless they live in Vancouver, because it’s different here and there are a billion people lining up to buy our homes.

#139 Karlhungus on 01.15.18 at 11:27 pm

Unless she’s making a lot of money, which sounds doubtful, not sure the strategy for pumping the RRSP. “cutting taxes?” what taxes?. Gis clawback should be a concern

#140 Karlhungus on 01.15.18 at 11:33 pm

Also not sure why she would use the RRSP refund for Tsfa. In her situation, one would be better then the other, not both. If you have determined the RRSP would be better then she should be plugging the refund back into it

#141 Bob Loblaw on 01.15.18 at 11:33 pm

Sadly, these stats are likely true. I dont even have to leave my street in Calgary to witness the mind numbing over consumption..

Friend of mine decided to take a loan out to purchase a pontoon boat. We live in Calgary… So everytime he wants to use it, he has to haul it 4-5 hours away. Uses it maybe max one week a year. The other 51 weeks of the year, he gets to watch it depreciate in the parking spot he made for on the side of his house.

Another friend down the street was laid off for a year. The day he landed a new job, he goes out and buys a new range rover. The same day!

Another couple down the street felt it was necessary to get matching Canada goose jackets for the whole family. He drives a new F-350 Platinum and she drives a Yukon Denali. Huge fifth wheel parked along the side of the house for the winter. Garage packed with snowmobiles, bikes, quads, you name it. His nut on these vehicles alone has to be close to $3K per month. Pure madness.

#142 Leichendiener on 01.15.18 at 11:39 pm

Not bad for a fifty year old farm girl.

#143 Greater Fool on 01.15.18 at 11:41 pm

Everywhere I look I can only see millionaires, if you are an educated hard working person that saves money you’re screwed, there is nothing for you! Canada is for billionaires ONLY. You work hard, save money and get nowhere, you rent will go up but your salary will not….

#144 Renter's Revenge! on 01.15.18 at 11:45 pm

Who cares about the MIL. She’s screwed.

Are those snowboarding boots the axe-girl is wearing?

#145 DON on 01.15.18 at 11:47 pm

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.15.18 at 7:48 pm

@#65 and 69
“The condo business is roaring across the Lower Mainland, as far as I can see. …”

+++++

B20 regs have been implemented for all of 14 days.

Give it 6 months and come back and talk to us in July when Canada’s biggest news will be the legally, stoned, blissed out, heavily indebted schmoo’s who will forget all their troubles and rack up the credit card on a Summer Holiday…….

**********************
Nice one! Likely Scenario.

#146 Notagreaterfool on 01.16.18 at 12:00 am

Alex Prikhodko what is the year over year change for the early Jan figures?

#147 Ronaldo on 01.16.18 at 12:05 am

#124 IHCTD9 on 01.15.18 at 10:26 pm

I think the OAS clawback starts at 70K or there abouts, she’s in no danger of that. I believe GIS is good for 2-300.00 month tops. Not enough work throughout life, so a crummy CPP cheque. Maybe 1500.00-1600.00/month?
—————————————————————-
IH, the clawback I referred to would be the GIS. If a single person at 65 has no other income than OAS, they would be entitled to approx. $876 per month or a bit over $10500 per year in addition to their OAS of $7025. The GIS is not considered for tax purposes therefore no tax payable in this instance. The only income that would be taken into account for other means tested benefits would be the OAS portion. In addition, the individual would be allowed to earn an extra $3500 or thereabouts from employment income without affecting their GIS. Income from TFSA withdrawals would also not result in a clawback to the GIS.

Now, if the person had other income such as CPP or RSP, part time earnings, interest income, etc. the GIS would be reduced by 50 cents for every dollar of that additional income received. When that total income (excluding OAS) reaches $17,785, no GIS is payable. The entire amount is taxable and other means tested benefits would also no longer apply.

Here is a the table for your info:

https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/publicpensions/cpp/old-age-security/payments/tab1-1.html

#148 Yorkville Renter on 01.16.18 at 12:09 am

question for blog dogs…

Rates go up… renewer cant afford it after their first 5 years so they renew but extend the amortization. allowable? I think it is.

I realize stretching the Am means way more interest, but I bet most would do that rather than sell… bc the house will eventually increase in value (or so they assume).

#149 Greater Fool on 01.16.18 at 12:11 am

Plese sign!!!!

https://www.change.org/p/carole-james-proposed-housing-measures-to-the-provincial-government-of-b-c

#150 Win not lose on 01.16.18 at 12:18 am

# 60 Nonplussed
It’s a Chinese made ax with a fibreglass handle – see it here http://bit.ly/2D6R1pa
It’s about 30 inches long.
So she’s just over 5 feet tall.

#151 Smoking Man on 01.16.18 at 12:32 am

Only 1-In-3 Americans Think Michael Wolff’s Book Is Credible.

Trump 2nd term a guaranteed.

Print and put it in the fridge.

It’s a good thing the 1/3 don’t own guns. Totally insane.

#152 Vb1978 on 01.16.18 at 12:38 am

We are up for renewal and have been approved by a mortgage broker for 5 YR at 3.54 can’t believe how quickly things have risen

#153 What I really know sometimes on 01.16.18 at 1:01 am

Scary scenarios for sure. Anyone that thinks rates are really going to rise, given this massive debt situation, should have their heads checked. By a whole team of specialists at one of those Swedish institutions.

#154 ozy - when is the preconstruction kondo crashing? on 01.16.18 at 1:14 am

Garth – when is the preconstruction kondo-market crashing? July? May? February? It is safe to say 10% ?

sold in March 2017 with closing in May 2017, so one can say good timing, but condos kept advancing.

last leg is the preconstruction – how can we help cut it?

need some extra cheap units soon

#155 NV Landlord NO MORE on 01.16.18 at 1:32 am

# 127 “…. living ….. in a little 1 bedroom”

WE (retired couple) are delighted to be living in a little 1 bedroom in Vancouver – great view, only maintenance fee, insurance and taxes to pay.. Millions in the bank, we travel to a warm climate every winter, and to the cottage in the summer. If we want to entertain family and friends, we take people out to restaurants. THANKS GARTH… We heard you speak in Prince George years ago and nearly died hearing your advice – but thought it through and are very grateful. THANKS

#156 NoName on 01.16.18 at 2:05 am

Interesting read

https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/15/researchers-finds-that-one-person-likely-drove-bitcoin-from-150-to-1000/

#157 Big City Livin' on 01.16.18 at 2:09 am

Hi Garth,

I’m ready to invest in ETFs and have funds set aside for it. I’ve been reading your blog and have allocated a portion of my total investment capital for the Canadian equity market. My question to you is… Should I jump in and buy Canadian equity ETFs now, or wait until the “NAFTA issue” sorts itself out? I’ve never had luck with timing the market, but it seems unwise to buy a broad-based Canadian equity ETF when the outlook for NAFTA is not looking too good. Appreciate any advice you’re willing to offer.

#158 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.16.18 at 2:36 am

#3 Steve on 01.15.18 at 5:16 pm
1/3 of Canadians are unable to pay the bills. As a child I got a front row seat to the chaos of debt. My parents were credit card mad. Everything was on plastic. This would have been at it’s worst in the mid eighties. My father’s excellent wage at his union job as a machinist allowed him and my stay at home mother to spend plastic dollars as much as they liked. It came at an incredible price however. The stress from what they were doing caused a lot of fighting. That combined with a huge amount of drinking caused my childhood to become a nightmare. It worries me that the children will be exposed to this insanity. It really worries me.
==================================

Beautiful and heartfelt post, Steve.

I remember in 1960’s Winnipeg as a 6 year old child with my siblings waiting in the car in the middle of winter for my father to drink in the beer parlor on Portage Avenue.
When our fingers and toes got too cold, we would ask another patron going in to get our Dad and he would soon come out with a couple of bags of Old Dutch Potato chips and then he would warm up the car. We would cry when he would then decide to go back in for another and another session.

The good news is all my siblings learned from our difficult childhood and we are all responsible drinkers or non drinkers. Three out of 4 of us do pretty well with money as well.

I believe that children can learn just as much from bad parenting as they can from good parenting as most kids are pretty clued in as to what not to do by watching a bad example.

#159 jane24 on 01.16.18 at 2:37 am

I feel sorry for those who obviously went for the dead cat bounce and brought in Sept. To lose $150,000 in a matter of months is tragic.

This is EXACTLY what happened in 1989. People just woke up one morning and decided in a demonstration of group think that buying RE was now a very bad idea. The tap switched off overnight. I remember a lot of housing estates development fires too.

Jamie’s MIL is owed by her family. She moves in with them. I grew up with my nanny living with us and the memories are very happy. Why should older family members be stressed and isolated in this fashion. They built the family in the first place.

#160 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 01.16.18 at 3:18 am

#23 Keith in Reo on 1.14.18 6:38pm

They’re scared folks……TPTB are freaking out.
So go and play the markets. Just know that it is a scam and rigged. Know when to hold ’em and know when to fold ’em. You are gambling, you are not investing. Nothing you do can be based on proper analysis because that concept went out the window in 2008
—————————————————————————
You must have recently read latest book by Michael Lewis?

Flash Boys. I’d recommend it.

Dark pools, fiberoptic lines and jostling for space over a millisecond of precious time. I certainly got the gist that the pirahnas do whatever it takes to keep the gullible coming.

And that book came out in 2012 I believe.

I’d imagine that Lewis could have written a book a year since then and still not scratched much of the surface of what the inner whirrings of Wall St look and sound like.

Thats not to say I’m not persuaded that in general markets go up, historically speaking.

But..this herd avoider (and yes, risk avoider, at least of the RE flavor) is having a difficult time seeing just the forest. Forget the trees, I’ve got every pine needle inspected.
But “analysis paralysis” won’t get me anywhere either.

…I’m too Waldens Pondish.

#161 BillyBob on 01.16.18 at 4:12 am

I remember flying on a corporate jet to California one time and we stopped in Montana for fuel, the reason being that jet fuel was so much cheaper there. I imagine with carbon taxes now added to the cost airlines are doing everything they can to buy their fuel in the US where possible. You know you have reached silly-season when it’s cheaper to buy jet fuel in the US than it is in Alberta. Canada exports 3 million bbls of oil per day, mostly coming from Alberta. How is it cheaper to buy fuel in Montana? Taxes. We are taxed to death in Canada, and this is why what should be the richest nation in the world, isn’t. More taxes aren’t going to help.

====================================

Jet fuel (and gasoline and diesel) are not the same thing as crude oil. They must be refined, and as such the price of crude can bear no direct relationship to the price of jet fuel.

For example the UAE has massive oil reserves, but their mega-airines actually import most of their jet fuel for their fleets in Dubai/Abu Dhabi due to lack of refining capacity. The ill-informed like to rant about the ME airlines having unfair advantages with fuel, imagining they just stick a hose in the ground and fuel the planes. It ain’t so.

It also helps to answer somewhat the grumbling from people when the price of gas at the pumps doesn’t track the price of oil/bbl.

They simply aren’t the same.

#162 Dan. t on 01.16.18 at 4:16 am

#65 S.Bby on 01.15.18 at 7:23 pm
Meanwhile new condo towers in Burnaby Metrotown are sprouting up like weeds. The sales centres are all open and have a a steady traffic. I suppose no one told these buyers (flippers) that there is a problem.
——————

Either all BC residents are super smart real estate gurus or they are all more delusional than anyone can imagine. Or maybe they all just have super high incomes.

Or maybe it’s the local public investing like they always do- full gas- right at or near the very top of the market.. any market for that matter. All you need in Canada is real estate and pot stocks and you will be seriously rich.

#163 Steven Rowlandson on 01.16.18 at 6:33 am

Garth what percentage of those 1.5 trillion dollars worth of mortgages would have to default before the system would be at risk of anything up to and including terminal breakdown? I am assuming that dollars are basically debt that has been leveraged. Repay or default and total dollars are reduced in number since most dollars are credit and not physically real. If the amount of bad debt exceeds savings, savings and cash would have to be cancelled to balance the equation wouldn’t it since all currency is debt and not equity?

#164 NG2018 on 01.16.18 at 6:41 am

Is it possible that Canadians have learned to make these surveys more fun by not answering with 100% honesty?

If unemployment rate remains low, housing bust may not happen. Slow meltdown maybe.
Canada is at near-top of prosperity. While being at top means experiencing some shaky moments, overall things look good. Just by going by the nice cars on the road, liar loans or not, life is good. Assuming that a vast majority are financially illiterate is a folly. The surveys need better surveyors and better quationaires.

#165 Howard on 01.16.18 at 6:56 am

#44 BlogDog123 on 01.15.18 at 6:33 pm

Can’t 3 old people, all living on OAS, CPP just move into a rented house/semi together.

———————————-

Thank you for being a friend
Travellin’ down the road and back again
Your heart is true
You’re a pal and a confidant

And if you threw a party
Invited everyone you knew….
etc.

Retire like the Golden Girls!

#166 Howard on 01.16.18 at 7:01 am

Bitcoin back under 12K.

Cointards better support the 11.8K level. If it breaches that, quick trip to 8K is likely.

But it’s still rising to 100K by June, right? Give those who remortgaged their homes to go all-in last month a shred of hope.

#167 Ace Goodheart on 01.16.18 at 7:05 am

Re: “Jet fuel (and gasoline and diesel) are not the same thing as crude oil. They must be refined, and as such the price of crude can bear no direct relationship to the price of jet fuel.”

Jet fuel is Kerosene (#2 diesel). Cheapest stuff on the planet. Jet engines are compression ignition, no spark.

It has always been the case that it is cheaper to fill up your jet with fuel in places other than Canada. Flight plans are put together with this in mind, and have been for a long, long time.

It is also cheaper to get your jet maintained in places other than Canada (if it is a commercial jet, it has very strict maintenance requirements).

Airplanes are funny that way. They are like shopping in an outlet mall. People just go where the cheapest price is.

#168 LivinLarge on 01.16.18 at 7:21 am

“I realize stretching the Am means way more interest, but I bet most would do that rather than sell… bc the house will eventually increase in value…” …one of the safest bets you can make so long as you can ride the “eventually” pony. It has been this way for 20,000 years and will be the same next year too. Every second of every day, new babies are being born and in 20-30 years they too will want absolute control over their nest and the roof over their head. They can (or at least believe), presuming an increase in disposible income in the future, reduce the Am sometime in the future so extending it now to achieve a long term goal, is just the cost of doing business.

Also “Also not sure why she would use the RRSP refund for Tsfa.”…without me being my usual long winded self, RRSP contributions can and almost always do get taxed considerably higher when taken out than they were taxed going in. This presumes that the contributor contributed considerably earlier in life than they withdrew so that their marginal rate is much lower earlier in life i.e. much lower refund too.

This elderly lady however is in the “sweet spot” where she’s almost certainly going to contribute and withdraw in the same marginal bracket. So, getting the refund, regardless of how small, and rolling it into the TFSA rather than into the RRSP, will retain its totally tax free status and any earnings on it remain tax free too.

The RRSP sales industry has, forever, pushed the “contribute early, contribute often and roll your refund back in” mantra and that is for people, a horrible long term plan. Unless your marginal rate when you withdraw is the same or lower than when you contrbuted, you’re going to get hit with lower refund rates and higher tax rates. Inflation works just as incidiously on RRSP needs as it does on everything else.

This is a great example to demonstrate just why TFSAs are so incredibly valuable. If you can keep “tax free money” tax free forever, then you win.

I know some RRSP bugs will dispute it, but IMO, if you can reasonably expect a significant tax free windfall later in life then there is a significant benefit to retaining your accumulating RRSP contribution limit and using your late in life windfall there.

#169 Grateful Boomer on 01.16.18 at 7:47 am

. Re r#133 pay your taxes

Nope, you still don’t get it. Re read Garth’s advise. I was there…,for every $1000 she avoided paying tax until she was 71, more than double the 10 percent interest rates govt bonds paying at that time…yes I was there. Cut forward to 65 years of age and she gets oas…cut forward to 71 she gets oas, her supplement AND her RRSP ….pays no tax, has her little nest egg…a investment foutune….no ….her dignity…yes….l know. I’m still here…..and bless her heart….so is she

#170 Ian on 01.16.18 at 7:59 am

Absolutely consistent with the data on Zolo.

GTA house sales plunging, now 1113. Last Jan was skyrocketing. Has to be affected by B-20. That chart is seriously scary. Plunging like a rock!

Happy pre-BoC Tuesday everyone!!!! Up we go tomorrow.

They should be redoing these debt sensitivity surveys every month for sure, as this will move quickly.

I’m still waiting for the massive condo project beside me to be cancelled. They’re still below ground. As Rachel Carson would say, Silent Spring!!!!

#171 Victor V on 01.16.18 at 8:00 am

Yellow Pages cutting 500 jobs

https://www.bnn.ca/yellow-pages-cutting-500-jobs-1.969246

MONTREAL — Yellow Pages Ltd. is cutting roughly 500 jobs in an effort to reduce spending and improve its results.

The company (Y.TO) says the job losses amount to close to 18 per cent of its employees.

The cuts will be made across the country and all parts of the company’s business.

#172 TurnerNation on 01.16.18 at 8:04 am

Canada’s got no game and must import TFW. Why.
Figure 10-20% of workers under 40 are addicted to drugs (tablets, Percs, OTC medicine, head pills) or hard drugs; booze; online and phone video games and Pr0n.

This why Ontariowe just announced free perscription drugs to under 24s. A traffickers dream. Plus all those mind bending SSRIs which are turning people into Zombies. Just look around. Now you know why movies and TV have made Zombism so cool in past decade.

People imitate what they see on Tee-vee.

All part of the plan when a top actor’s wife announced War of Drugs in late 80s, the elites then brought in Crack.
Drugs are 2nd oldest business in the world and business is good. Any quantity of drug is available in any city in the worlds.

#173 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.16.18 at 8:05 am

@#162 Jane24
“I remember a lot of housing estates development fires too….”
+++++

Yep. I remember the “unexplained fires” in tons of half built homes/condo’s/strata’s in the 80’s when everything went to sh!t.
People never learn.

#174 SimplyPut7 on 01.16.18 at 8:07 am

#151 Yorkville Renter on 01.16.18 at 12:09 am

The average primary homeowner who
1) did not lie on their mortgage application
2) did not move around a lot and increase their mortgage debt
3) did not use their HELOC as an ATM

will not be affected as much by these rates increases, because the worst case scenario is they can extend their amortization period.

But in Toronto, many of the home buyers from the last 2 years were not primary homeowners who planned to live in their house for the next 10 – 25 years.

They were:
1) speculators who used the HELOC to buy condos to flip or rent out as investment

2) flippers who overpaid for detached houses (see 3 Honey Dr. and 23 Honey Dr. on realtor.ca)

3) they used money from their HELOC to give to syndicated mortgages and private lenders to give to subprime borrowers

4) the primary homeowners who did not have a down payment went to the private lenders/family members HELOC for the down payment then back to the big banks, some who knowingly gave home buyers mortgages based on 2 mortgages acting like they were qualified borrowers with down payments of 20%

5) homeowners bought homes without conditions (e.g. buyer must sell their home or conditional on financing) and now can’t sell their old home for the price they need to make the new home affordable and have been carrying two mortgages hoping to sell this March, or have to go to a private lender to make up the difference on what they bid on the new house and what the big bank appraiser says the house they bought is worth

And the list goes on, from people who robbed their RRSP for overpriced condos and houses, the HELOC with the $80,000 loan on a car worth $35,000 now, to people who work in the real estate/mortgage industry and don’t know how long they will have a job.

There are a lot of unknowns, the honest people who did not go overboard will be fine. But the GTA has not been normal since 2015, and the media didn’t help to keep everyone level-headed. Housing was talked about every day on the front pages of newspapers and the 5/6 o’clock news until Home Capital started to unravel and flippers realized they were competing against themselves.

Very few mainstream media outlets are talking about what to do if you get yourself into trouble or provide any updates on the housing market. The biggest story on the 5/6 o’clock news on Sunday in the GTA was potholes.

#175 I Used To Be One Of Them on 01.16.18 at 8:26 am

Incredible! Anyone in that much financial jeopardy should be actively exploring some drastic debt restructuring options, including a Consumer Proposal.

Sure, it sucks to admit that you’re addicted to plastic and it feels shameful to take the “Bankruptcy Light” route, but the long-term gains of debt repayment leading to financial security down the road are well worth it.

I know from experience, I had to swallow my pride and do this but I don’t regret it one bit!
https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/br02051.html

#176 Ezzy on 01.16.18 at 8:27 am

#72 Joker . . . disco inferno!

#177 Ian on 01.16.18 at 8:41 am

I see Marketwatch has added a ‘crypto’ section to its financial data recently.

Sure sign of a top.

Bitcoin: $20k to $12k in a few short weeks. Hard to imagine how much money will be lost on this turkey. – Garth

#178 Steven Rowlandson on 01.16.18 at 9:01 am

“Bitcoin: $20k to $12k in a few short weeks. Hard to imagine how much money will be lost on this turkey. – Garth”

Probably quite a bit by the time people come to their senses if that is possible.

#179 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 9:24 am

#179 Ezzy on 01.16.18 at 8:27 am
#72 Joker . . . disco inferno!
______________________

“Burn that Mother down!” lol

#180 Broadway Limited on 01.16.18 at 9:28 am

Hey Garth –

Reading today’s blog reminds me of a blog you posted back in the spring of 2013, about living simply, living small and being frugal. I took it to heart and now, when I read about all these unfortunate people with all that stupid debt, I thank my lucky stars you wrote that blog and that I read it.

= D =

#181 ANON on 01.16.18 at 9:32 am

Most of them are demand loans. Do the borrowers even know?

Even without the epic results of the latest survey, it was a pretty safe bet that demand loans (*) can be called, but no one can possibly answer the call.

* This is true for all loans (especially private -imagine the uproar if any government would have tried to stop the late stage binge, they would have been labeled worse things than they are labeled now, and ousted as commies), but let’s not beat that dead horse to a pulp. That poor animal’s carcass has taken periodical beatings for millennia, even if it’s obvious that expansions requires promises of more, exponentially, so they cannot possibly last forever.

As a curiosity, if anyone wants to see a parabolic rise on a logarithmic scale, look no further than here.

Acceptance is bliss. :)

#182 paul on 01.16.18 at 9:39 am

#147 Renter’s Revenge! on 01.15.18 at 11:45 pm
Who cares about the MIL. She’s screwed.

Are those snowboarding boots the axe-girl is wearing?
—————————————————————–
Boots you are looking at the boots ?
You are like the guy that gets a room for some afternoon delight and complains the T.V. is not working.
Stay focused my friend! lol

#183 Another Deckchair on 01.16.18 at 9:42 am

@140 Ace Goodheart:

“This blog post made me think a bit. How does a person with $200 per month financial wiggle room, handle a 3% interest rate increase on a 900,000 mortgage? ”

We are fortunate, in that we can just work a couple more hours, and Bobs’ your Uncle. But not everyone is as lucky.

It turns it into a “us” vs. “them” conversation, and I don’t particularly like that aspect.

What do “they” do? Get a part time job – if they can find one? Sell stuff on Kijiji or Craigslist? Moonlight as a sales clerk at Home Depot?

They HAVE to get inventive, or else they are sunk.

As someone who once had to get inventive to keep food on the table (issue was 3+ months working but work accounting dept was out – maternity leave) I got inventive, and when I finally got paid, the household finances never looked back.

I was lucky, and I had enough drive to overcome the situation.

I talk openly with friends and family about finances, as Garth does with this blog. Maybe by being open, one can alter the financial course of a couple of people, and maybe they’ll be open and…

#184 Paging Bitcoinniaire on 01.16.18 at 10:01 am

We need your pumping today!

Please tell us again how you’re an expert on world finance and you, alone, “get” cryptos.

What price will it be in June again? 100K? or was it 1M?

#185 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 10:02 am

#178 I Used To Be One Of Them on 01.16.18 at 8:26 am

I know from experience, I had to swallow my pride and do this but I don’t regret it one bit!
https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/br02051.html

__________________________________________

Better late than never – good job.

The peace of mind a good financial situation brings into your life is the single best part about it. I’m a freedom and independence kind of guy, no debt plus a decent stack of cash cures chronic worry and anxiety better than any drug you can name.

#186 Ian on 01.16.18 at 10:06 am

Interesting Empire State index data this am.

“The Empire State manufacturing survey slipped to 17.7 in January from a revised 19.6 in December, the New York Fed said. Economists had expected activity a reading of 18.6, according to a survey by Econoday. This is the third straight monthly decline after the index hit 28.1 in October.”

Conditions softening?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/empire-state-factory-gauge-softens-a-bit-in-january-2018-01-16?mod=bnbh

#187 LivinLarge on 01.16.18 at 10:31 am

“I’m a freedom and independence kind of guy, no debt plus a decent stack of cash cures chronic worry and anxiety better than any drug you can name”….this can’t be emphasized too strongly.

This is why it is so critically important to look at every investment decision from the point of view “how much will I keep in my jeans when I want to spend this investment some time in the future”. Unfortunately, far too many folks look at the decison as “How much will I make on this investment next year?”.

In nearly 40 years of working with other people’s money in different capacities, I have totally lost count of the number of them who looked me in the eye and couldn’t grasp that their GIC at 3% was pretty much equal to their stock appreciating at 1.5% when they were already appreciating well beyond 1.5%. Just trying to get people to appreciate the difference between different types of income is a herculean task. Soooooo many folks just lookmat “what I made”.

#188 Love the resentment on 01.16.18 at 10:36 am

On bitcoin . People are angry that others made a lot of money ?

They focus on how much was lost. Never about the fortunes it created . :).

Was in on Btc at $600 . Sold in sections ,at an average cost of $8000

Why r humans so wired to be jealous ? Pathetic

Gambling is not investing. Smart people stayed far away from this. – Garth

#189 I am with stupid on 01.16.18 at 10:53 am

This photo is sexist. It depicts the intricate vulnerability and delicate and fragile nature of the Canadian woman, focusing on gender stereotypes.

We should focus on women equality instead.
http://mgtow1.blogspot.bg/2015/05/why-does-kathleen-wynne-hate-me-and-my.html

no wonder I hear constantly in my head these days Lenny Kravitz’ song:
Canadian woman, stay away from me…
and inclination for heavy drinking.

#190 Victor V on 01.16.18 at 11:00 am

Bitcoin, rival cryptocurrencies plunge on crackdown fears

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/bitcoin-slides-18-on-crackdown-fears-crypto-rivals-also-plunge/article37616627/

Bitcoin slid as much as 18 per cent on Tuesday to a four-week low, as fears of a regulatory crackdown on the market spread after reports suggested it was still possible that South Korea could ban trading in cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin’s slide triggered a selloff across the broader cryptocurrency market, with biggest rival Ethereum down 23 per cent on the day at one point, according to trade website Coinmarketcap, and the next-biggest, Ripple, plunging by as much as a third.

#191 LivinLarge on 01.16.18 at 11:05 am

And for a very personal example, my own, very elderly mother, is too fixated on earning 2.25% interest and avoiding 1.5% probate to even consider that she could be keeping well more than double what she’s keeping from the interest at the insurance company. Fixated on “Do I have enough to live on next year” and ignoring even the most conservative options to earn soooo much more.

#192 'Gambling is not investing ' on 01.16.18 at 11:09 am

There is nothing wrong with Having a % of a portfolio is speculative assets

I’m sorry these ‘smart people ‘ you speak of misssd the opportunity

No part of a professional portfolio is speculative. The goals are to preserve capital and grow it in a reasonable fashion with low volatility. Over time, DIYers learn this. – Garth

#193 Hamilton on 01.16.18 at 11:12 am

Garth,

Based on the numbers the High of April was $1,275,000 for a house and now $855,000. A $420,000 hit!

Ouch!

#194 BTC vs NHL on 01.16.18 at 11:18 am

BTC is over and done, but there is still a glimmer of hope for the NHL to come to their senses.
Even North and South Korea are planning to join their hockey teams for the Olympics and we can’t do better than send our 3rd stringers?

It’s not too late – voice your discontent by boycotting the NHL games, and drop the TV packages.

The players will still get paid, only the hoser owners will lose. And the concession guys, but they should be in jail already.

The Revolution will not be televised.

#195 Victor V on 01.16.18 at 11:22 am

Canada’s real-estate market slowdown could be exacerbated by interest-rate hike

https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/01/15/canadas-real-estate-market-slowdown-could-be-exacerbated-by-interest-rate-hike.html

The Bank of Canada will make its first interest rate announcement of the year on Wednesday. Many observers predict it will boost the country’s benchmark rate by 25 points to 1.25 per cent after the economy’s strong performance last year and a particularly strong jobs report from November. If the economy keeps pace, they believe that rate may be bumped up a few more times over 2018.

The suspected hikes could heap stress onto buyers already combating stricter regulations that were introduced by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions on Jan. 1 for uninsured mortgages, and elevated five-year, fixed mortgage rates that were pushed up by the CIBC, RBC and TD banks last week.

“This is the most significant test the market has seen in recent years,” said Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s chief deputy chief economist.

He expects a market slowdown to be seen as early as the first quarter as people who were hoping to scoop up homes weigh whether renting or living with family for a bit longer will pay off later in the year, when the country has grown accustomed to the new conditions.

“The big question though is to what extent investors will stop buying,” Tal says. “That will carry a big effect, but it’s still the biggest unknown.”

#196 Tony on 01.16.18 at 11:27 am

Re: #187 Paging Bitcoinniaire on 01.16.18 at 10:01 am

Until another alternate investment comes along or if the DOW drops below the 10,000 level then Bitcoin is still firmly entrenched in a bull market.

A 40% loss in a few months. Some bull. – Garth

#197 Karlhungus on 01.16.18 at 11:39 am

#171
RRSP industry? What is that? Doesn’t exist. RRSP s are still very useful regardless of the minor differences in tax rates you are talking about. Think about it, when you are making big bucks (100k +) you refunded tax rate would be 50%ish. When you are taking that money out from rrsp, on the low end you would pay much less tax

#198 LOL on 01.16.18 at 11:39 am

garth is angry today!! BTC bothers him!! hahahahaha

ya missed the boat on it Garth?

BTC should not be in any serious investor’s portfolio. In yours, no problem. – Garth

#199 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 11:55 am

#150 Ronaldo on 01.16.18 at 12:05 am
_____________

Thanks for the info.

#200 For those about to flop... on 01.16.18 at 11:59 am

Right on schedule…

M43BC

“Mapped: Bitcoin’s Legality Around The World.

Bitcoin’s popularity has increased exponentially over the past year, as cryptocurrency continues to go mainstream. However, not everyone is excited and optimistic about Bitcoin. Several governments have stepped in recently, as Bitcoin’s popularity and market cap have impacted fiat currency valuations. Feeling threatened with a lack of understanding of cryptocurrencies, some countries have gone as far as to put out-right bans on Bitcoin trading. With all the recent sweep of government regulations, we wanted to develop a visual that highlights the legality of Bitcoin by country.

In our visual, we wanted to highlight the globe and where each country stands on Bitcoin. Using a color legend, we created a range of Bitcoin legality that helps show the varying degrees of acceptance around the world. Green countries are legal Bitcoin markets. Orange represents neutral markets that are not outright legalizing Bitcoin, but do not have any major restrictions against the use of cryptocurrency. Light pink countries are restricted Bitcoin markets that may have lots of red-tape, regulations, and government attempts to slow the use of cryptocurrencies. Dark pink countries represent markets where Bitcoin has been made completely illegal and criminalized. Lastly, some countries have yet to comment on Bitcoin’s legality, which are represented by gray color.
Eastern Countries More Closed Off To Bitcoin Compared To West
As the visual shows, Eastern countries appear a lot more closed off to Bitcoin than their Western counterparts. Russia is currently the largest country to illegalize Bitcoin. However, China and South Korea are the latest two countries to step up their scrutiny and regulation of Bitcoin use. This has led to the recent sell off across the cryptocurrency market, as China and South Korea are two vital hotspots that have historically contributed a lot of trading liquidity to the emerging market. However, South Korean citizens are not going down without a fight. A recent petition to stop the cryptocurrency ban and fire government officials has exceeded 100,000 signatures.

North American and Western Europe are the most accepting regions for Bitcoin. The Middle East appears to be very divided on the topic of Bitcoin. Interestingly enough, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey are legal Bitcoin markets, while Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have varying degrees of restrictions on the cryptocurrency.

There are currently 99 (40%) countries that have unrestricted Bitcoin laws, out of 246 total. Nearly seventeen countries, or 7% of the world, has either restricted or illegalized Bitcoin. Interestingly enough, 53% of the world has yet to comment on Bitcoin and the legality of its use within their countries. This is a risk for Bitcoin, as some of these undecided countries could eventually decide to place restrictions on cryptocurrencies.

Here is a breakdown of the chart, based on the global legality of Bitcoin out of 246 countries:

Legal and Neutral (Green and Orange): 99 Countries or 40% of World

Restricted (Light Pink): 7 Countries or 3% of World

Illegal (Dark Pink): 10 Countries or 4% of World

No Information (Gray): 130 Countries or 53% of World

Overall, a majority of the world still has yet to comment on the legality of Bitcoin. The emerging industry is still not fully understood by global regulators, which may explain why some countries have yet to comment on the movement. As time passes, countries that have remained on the sideline will eventually come out with a set of regulations that either approve Bitcoin’s use or illegalize the activity. Bitcoin’s rise in popularity continues to exceed expectations, but not all countries will see cryptocurrency in a favorable light.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/bitcoin-legality-around-the-world

#201 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 12:01 pm

#144 Bob Loblaw on 01.15.18 at 11:33 pm
Sadly, these stats are likely true. I dont even have to leave my street in Calgary to witness the mind numbing over consumption..

Friend of mine decided to take a loan out to purchase a pontoon boat. We live in Calgary… So everytime he wants to use it, he has to haul it 4-5 hours away. Uses it maybe max one week a year. The other 51 weeks of the year, he gets to watch it depreciate in the parking spot he made for on the side of his house.

Another friend down the street was laid off for a year. The day he landed a new job, he goes out and buys a new range rover. The same day!

Another couple down the street felt it was necessary to get matching Canada goose jackets for the whole family. He drives a new F-350 Platinum and she drives a Yukon Denali. Huge fifth wheel parked along the side of the house for the winter. Garage packed with snowmobiles, bikes, quads, you name it. His nut on these vehicles alone has to be close to $3K per month. Pure madness.
__________________________________

I worked with a guy a couple years. Commuted from East end of GTA to the hinterland, 1.5 hr drive each way – 5 days a week. Drove a crap old car. Wife wouldn’t move out here because she didn’t speak English so he was stuck commuting.

The day he crossed 90 days, he showed up in a brand new car. 21 months later he was let go.

Your pal with the trucks and quads. If it’s those trucks plus 2 sleds and 2 atvs all nice new ones, figure 3500-4000 unless it’s all financed out to the end of time.

#202 InvestorsFriend on 01.16.18 at 12:06 pm

RRSP Math and logic versus dogma / urban legend

#143 Karlhungus on 01.15.18 at 11:33 pm said:

Also not sure why she would use the RRSP refund for Tsfa. In her situation, one would be better then the other, not both. If you have determined the RRSP would be better then she should be plugging the refund back into it.

****************************
Impeccable logic, if (and that may a big if) RRSP is best and there is room then put the refund into RRSP rather than TFSA or (as often urged) on mortage.

Ronaldo at 150 in arguing that the first dollar of RRSP income for someone getting the GIS will be effectively taxed at 50% appears to be using facts not dogma. If he is wrong, what is the precise math?

LivinLarge at 171 claims with no math:

The RRSP sales industry has, forever, pushed the “contribute early, contribute often and roll your refund back in” mantra and that is for people, a horrible long term plan. Unless your marginal rate when you withdraw is the same or lower than when you contrbuted, you’re going to get hit with lower refund rates and higher tax rates. Inflation works just as incidiously on RRSP needs as it does on everything else.

*******************************
LivingLarge attacks the RRSP industry dogma with an incorrect assumption. Just a couple days ago I went through the math of how the growth of our NET share of the RRSP (after deducting the refund cash back) is taxed at ZERO% if the marginal tax rate remains unchanged (so ties a TFSA) and easily beat a taxable account even when the marginal tax rate was 7 percentage points higher in my example the other day. The refund effectively funds part of our RRSPs and grows to precisely pay the tax when the marginal tax rate is unchanged.

But people believe what they want to believe, especially when they need to in order to justify their past decisions.

#203 Newcomer on 01.16.18 at 12:18 pm

#140 Ace Goodheart on 01.15.18 at 11:17 pm
………
This blog post made me think a bit. How does a person with $200 per month financial wiggle room, handle a 3% interest rate increase on a 900,000 mortgage?

I guess they sell the house……
———-
No such person exists. If you’ve got that big a mortgage, you’ve got a commensurate income. But even for people with less money coming in, while they may think they have only a few hundred spare, they could downgrade a car, downgrade the phone plan, change their shopping habits, take one of the kids out of something pricey, etc. Most people have lots of wiggle room, they are just not using it.

#204 InvestorsFriend on 01.16.18 at 12:18 pm

Mark gives a useless Dickish response to my perhaps somewhat Diskish question

#132 Mark on 01.15.18 at 10:49 pm
“Let’s say someone is in the 40% marginal tax rate but then starts drawing old age pension and is subject to the clawback.
What now, is their marginal tax rate? “

Per:

https://www.taxtips.ca/taxrates/ab.htm

An Albertan has to earn >$145k of taxable income to hit a 41% combined bracket.

And OAS entitlement for an individual completely ceases at $122,843.

Hence, the marginal tax rate in such a scenario is identical.

***************************************
Mark “clever” response ignored that the 40% was hypothetical and ignored that marginal tax rates of 40% or more are common in most provinces.

Old Age pension is clawed back at 15% so would seem to add 15% to the marginal tax rate whenever you are in the clawback range.

But since 15% is clawed back it is no longer taxed and so the after-tax cost of the clawback is 15% times (1 minus your marginal tax rate)

After tax, the 15% clawback costs you 9% if your marginal tax rate was 40% so your marginal tax rate jumps to 49% not 55% as might be expected.

That was the point I wanted to make in my little quiz. I used to think Clawback cost 15% net on each added dollar of income but that was wrong.

#205 james on 01.16.18 at 12:23 pm

#199 Tony on 01.16.18 at 11:27 am

Re: #187 Paging Bitcoinniaire on 01.16.18 at 10:01 am

Until another alternate investment comes along or if the DOW drops below the 10,000 level then Bitcoin is still firmly entrenched in a bull market.

A 40% loss in a few months. Some bull. – Garth
……………………………………………………………..
In the case of bitcoin, the cryptocurrency has a set cap of 21 million bitcoins. Many analysts note that this set cap makes bitcoin more desirable than other assets, even gold. That’s because unlike with gold, there’s no need to worry about a digital Gold Rush. A treasure trove of bitcoin won’t ever be “discovered,” causing the crypto’s price to crash with an influx in supply.
It still appears to be a pyramid scheme to me.
I have a bridge to sell if anyone is interested?

#206 Periscope on 01.16.18 at 12:24 pm

DELETED

#207 Victor V on 01.16.18 at 12:26 pm

Debt levels in Canada haven’t reached ‘crisis mode’ yet: Former CIBC chair

https://www.bnn.ca/debt-levels-in-canada-haven-t-reached-crisis-mode-yet-former-cibc-chair-1.969571

Despite Canadians holding on to record levels of debt, the country is not in “crisis mode” yet, according to one Canadian business leader who says the growing amount of consumer debt shouldn’t be discussed in general terms.

“The debt level cannot be taken [in] absolute [terms]. It needs to be taken relative to the assets that Canadian citizens have at the same time,” Charles Sirois, co-founder and chairman of Pangea and a former CIBC chairman, told BNN in an interview Tuesday.

Sirois put the blame for soaring debt partly on rising home prices and greater levels of home ownership, noting debt levels increase when people buy more expensive homes.

#208 LivinLarge on 01.16.18 at 12:32 pm

“RRSP industry? What is that? Doesn’t exist. RRSP s are still very useful regardless of the minor differences in tax rates you are talking about.” OMG Karl, you’re taking the Koolaid as an IV push. The difference can be huge.

The “industry” as I refer to it, is the legion of [email protected] plus the thousands of “commission based financial planners” with little more than an IFIC certificate.

if someone puts a $1,000 into an RSP when they are young and starting out in their career they may be at the lowest marginal rate but when they retire and need the money then their career is 45 years later and they’re at the highest bracket and that could easily be the difference between 25% and 53%.

It’s only arithmetic to figure out how much that $250 refund initially has to grow to even just break even in the end at 53%. And the differential gets really painful to look at when you look at the difference in “in the pocket” return if the $1000 had been invested unregistered and earned nothing but capgains. Only half of the gains are even taxed.

So, don’t tell me that the differences are negligible. For the vast majority of the working class folks out there the differences in the numbers alone are very significant.

#209 james on 01.16.18 at 12:32 pm

#154 Smoking Man on 01.16.18 at 12:32 am
Only 1-In-3 Americans Think Michael Wolff’s Book Is Credible.
Trump 2nd term a guaranteed.
Print and put it in the fridge.
It’s a good thing the 1/3 don’t own guns. Totally insane.
…………………………………………………………………
Obviously you didn’t read the breakdown of GOP vs Dems. Putting that aside he is losing the confidence of normal people out there.

https://www.statista.com/chart/12509/do-americans-think-michael-wolffs-book-is-credible/

http://time.com/5073531/donald-trump-2020-reelection-poll/

#210 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 12:34 pm

#170 Ace Goodheart on 01.16.18 at 7:05 am

Jet fuel is Kerosene (#2 diesel). Cheapest stuff on the planet. Jet engines are compression ignition, no spark.
__________________________

I just parked my old Kerosene heater out back for the scrap run in the spring. Used it for years in the cellar when -25 and below instead of firing up the old dormant Oil furnace.

Canadian Tire was getting near 30.00 for a 10 litre jug. Total bloody insane rip off.

I will probably end up getting another pellet stove for down there, 40 lb bag is 5.50, and 40 lbs of wood pellets is about the same amount of BTU’s as 10 litres of Kerosene.

#211 Invictus on 01.16.18 at 12:47 pm

102 Smoking man.

“Who knows what that kid went through. Possibly late for school made up a story and boom. Shes a kid, they lie.

Politicians. SJW running running over grandmother’s to get their various ugly faces in front of cameras to show us how compassionate and wonderful they are.

Now this child will be harassed and ridiculed for years to come. This culture of identy politics is divisive as it is insane.”

And he scores again.

I believe I am much younger than you but I SALUTE YOU.

#212 RyYYZ on 01.16.18 at 12:55 pm

#208 james on 01.16.18 at 12:23 pm
In the case of bitcoin, the cryptocurrency has a set cap of 21 million bitcoins. Many analysts note that this set cap makes bitcoin more desirable than other assets, even gold. That’s because unlike with gold, there’s no need to worry about a digital Gold Rush. A treasure trove of bitcoin won’t ever be “discovered,” causing the crypto’s price to crash with an influx in supply.
It still appears to be a pyramid scheme to me.
I have a bridge to sell if anyone is interested?
==================================

Yep, Bitcoins are ultimately limited in quantity. Just like “limited edition” trading cards and such. And they have about the same intrinsic value.

I can’t see, other than speculation, why any of these digital currencies should be worth anything. It may be true that my money (USD, CAD, etc) is equally lacking in intrinsic value, not being backed by gold or any other asset, but at least it is recognized as legal tender and has the backing and control of a national government and bank.

#213 RyYYZ on 01.16.18 at 1:02 pm

#211 LivinLarge on 01.16.18 at 12:32 pm
if someone puts a $1,000 into an RSP when they are young and starting out in their career they may be at the lowest marginal rate but when they retire and need the money then their career is 45 years later and they’re at the highest bracket and that could easily be the difference between 25% and 53%.

It’s only arithmetic to figure out how much that $250 refund initially has to grow to even just break even in the end at 53%. And the differential gets really painful to look at when you look at the difference in “in the pocket” return if the $1000 had been invested unregistered and earned nothing but capgains. Only half of the gains are even taxed.
====================================

Presumably, by the time they are drawing on their RRSP, they will no longer be employed. Their income, unless they have a generous private (or public) pension plan, will probably be limited to OAP and whatever they withdraw from their RRSPs.

Personally, I don’t expect to have as large of a taxable income in retirement as I have now. So every dollar I put into my RRSP comes off of a gross income of ~90k. I have no other source of retirement income except the OAP and my RRSP. I have no concerns about paying more in taxes on whatever I draw from my RRSP compared to what I saved putting it in.

#214 RE_Investor on 01.16.18 at 1:15 pm

#208 james:
In the case of bitcoin, the cryptocurrency has a set cap of 21 million bitcoins. Many analysts note that this set cap makes bitcoin more desirable than other assets, even gold. That’s because unlike with gold, there’s no need to worry about a digital Gold Rush. A treasure trove of bitcoin won’t ever be “discovered,” causing the crypto’s price to crash with an influx in supply.

Lol, 1,450 crypto-currencies to choose from and kodakcoin soon.
https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/

#215 LivinLarge on 01.16.18 at 1:24 pm

This is going to get messy and one thing I learned from Stephen Hawking is that every equation loses readers.

“Impeccable logic, if (and that may a big if) RRSP is best and there is room then put the refund into RRSP rather than TFSA or (as often urged) on mortage.”…this elderly MIL in the specific example is origin of my specific comment. The question was, “why into TFSA for her rather than back into the RRSP?” My answer dealt exclusively with her specific situation.

As for your earlier math, well Fearless Leader told you pretty much what I have been telling you will real world examples for a month now, RRSPs are regularly “tax traps in retirement”. You choose to ignore the real world math in favor of promoting you’re own agenda.

Something else that you ALWAYS choose to ignore is the real world of price inflation and the RRSP’s forced withdrawal requirements.

When I graduated university in 1979 and started working in the management training program of a chartered bank, my rent was $275 per month including utilities. Today that same apartment rents for over $1200 per month PLUS utilities. This is inflation and it effects everything. I needed about $1500 per month gross to have a comfortable lifestyle but to have the same lifestyle today I need about $7,000 per month gross. In 1979 I was in the minimum tax bracket but today I am near the top bracket. This is what is refered to as “bracket creep” i.e. everyone needs a lot more per month in 40 years and except for the creep in the basic personal ammount, brackets creep with inflation. So, that “lot more money to have the same lifestyle” is going to be at your maximum marginal rate and not the rate at which you originally put the money into the RRSP at.

So, to make this easier to digest, to have the same lifestyle in retirement as earlier, I need 4-6Xs the income and that 4-6Xs the income is ALWAYS taxed wayyy higher than when I put it into the RRSP.

Every single penny of withdrawn money from an RRSP is treated like wages or interest and taxed at your marginal rate for the year withdrawn regardless of how the money was earned. And on top of that, the regs require you to take a minimum out after age 71 whether you need to or not.

So, put the same money into a non registered account in common shares and sit back and let them appreciate while reinvesting the dividends each quarter until you have to pay taxes on those divs after taking advantage of the Dividend Tax Credit and you have a honkin’ load of coin that hasn’t yet been taxed once. The capgains isn’t taxed at all until YOU decide to sell and the divs aren’t taxed until your personal gross income exceeds $40,000 per year. And presuming no change to the capgains inclusion rate (bad presumption BTW) then you’re only going to pay tax on 1/2 the gain.

Fancy dancing schemes may look cool on paper but in the real world not so much.

#216 Armpit on 01.16.18 at 1:38 pm

Bitcoin down from 13100 to 11400 in the past 12 hours…

#217 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 1:42 pm

#211 LivinLarge on 01.16.18 at 12:32 pm

if someone puts a $1,000 into an RSP when they are young and starting out in their career they may be at the lowest marginal rate but when they retire and need the money then their career is 45 years later and they’re at the highest bracket and that could easily be the difference between 25% and 53%.
____________________________________________

Maybe I am misunderstanding, but it looks like you are saying the retiree is withdrawing from their RRSP’s at the same marginal rate as their last years of working?

If so, this is not correct. The retiree will be taxed on his / her gross income same as always AFAIK. If the retiree takes 100K out of the RRSP per year, taxes will be high. If he takes out 35K taxes will be low.

If a guy starts investing in his mid 20’s and socks away into RRSP’s right through to 65 while reinvesting the tax return he really cannot lose.

#218 PastThePeak on 01.16.18 at 1:43 pm

#191 Love the resentment on 01.16.18 at 10:36 am

On bitcoin . People are angry that others made a lot of money ?
They focus on how much was lost. Never about the fortunes it created . :).
Was in on Btc at $600 . Sold in sections ,at an average cost of $8000
Why r humans so wired to be jealous ? Pathetic

===================================

Not jealous per say (I do wish I had the foresight to do the same). I begrudge no one their good luck in gambling in Las Vegas, or in Bitcoin. Good on you. But it doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is not like an investment, but rather like gambling. It appears you gambled and won. Those who have bought in recently have gambled and lost (so far).

For those who have consistently and quite frequently predicted the unending rise of BTC to $100K and even $1M per BTC here, you can imagine there is some blowback to that.

#219 InvestorsFriend on 01.16.18 at 1:46 pm

Correct me if I am wrong.

I said above at 207 that:

After tax, the 15% (old age pension) clawback costs you 9% if your marginal tax rate was 40% so your marginal tax rate jumps to 49% not 55% as might be expected.

************************************
I think that is the way it works but upon reflection, I am not certain.

Does the 15% clawback ding you an extra marginal 15% on each dollar earned or does the lower pension amount mean you don’t pay tax on the clawed back 15% so the net hit is 15% times (1 minus your marginal tax rate)?

A 9% hit is a hit but beats 15%…

#220 Ace Goodheart on 01.16.18 at 1:51 pm

RE: #191 Love the resentment on 01.16.18 at 10:36 am

“On bitcoin . People are angry that others made a lot of money ?

They focus on how much was lost. Never about the fortunes it created . :).

Was in on Btc at $600 . Sold in sections ,at an average cost of $8000

Why r humans so wired to be jealous ? Pathetic”

The whole crypto fiasco is just another example of human stupidity unchecked by any formal set of regulations. This is why we have securities laws.

If you allow shadow exchanges to sell “investments” like bitcoin, with no regulatory oversight, and the exchanges are successful in promoting what they are selling, what you end up with is a parabolic growth curve, followed by a hard crash.

The reason is simple and is the same reason why a ponzi scheme works. Early investors are cashing out, because later investors are buying. As long as people keep buying, the price keeps going up. At some point, you reach the head “idiot” buyer, and no one is dumb enough to purchase the asset for a higher price. Everyone starts to sell.

The asset then decreases in value. As more investors realize it will never go up again, it keeps decreasing as everyone bails. You then get a hard sell off, with everyone rushing to the exits.

Yes, the early investors in this worthless “asset” make out like bandits.

This is the reason why we have such extensive securities regulation and why these crypto currencies are screaming out to be regulated.

#221 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 2:04 pm

#92 Smoking Man Is Gone on 01.15.18 at 8:49 pm
Yahooooo, now if we could just get rid of SCM too, we’d be whole again.

———

I’m not going anywhere, crybaby.

#222 InvestorsFriend on 01.16.18 at 2:16 pm

No RRSP Agenda besides Math

#218 LivinLarge on 01.16.18 at 1:24 pm responded to me saying:

This is going to get messy and one thing I learned from Stephen Hawking is that every equation loses readers.

As for your earlier math, well Fearless Leader told you pretty much what I have been telling you will real world examples for a month now, RRSPs are regularly “tax traps in retirement”. You choose to ignore the real world math in favor of promoting you’re own agenda.

*********************************
My only agenda is educating people based on the math as I see it. I provided an actual example the other day. You bring no specific math.

As for inflation it affects all investments equally and is irrelevant in the math comparing after-tax outcomes of RRSP, TFSA and taxable accounts.

All horses can be led to water. Some refuse to drink.

I do believe you are very seriously out gunned regarding knowledge and the math here, but you can continue to believe whatever you want but sadly you are reinforcing the wrong views of others.

#223 LivinLarge on 01.16.18 at 2:23 pm

IHCT(?) “If a guy starts investing in his mid 20’s and socks away into RRSP’s right through to 65 while reinvesting the tax return he really cannot lose.”….ohhhhh yessss he can. What you just stated is the “myth of finger prints” that Paul Simon sang about.

Maybe that nice man can live on $35K in 2018 but he’s going to need a helluva lot more than that in retirement and without an indexed DB pension to bring up the inflationary creep then there are plenty of legitimate savings/investment methods to cover the inflation creep.

While I’m on it. There’s a wonderfully misleading TD investing commercial playing right now. The one where the nice TD investment guy askes the equally nice lady “when do you think you’d like to retire” and she replies “I was thinking when I’m 70”. When has the desired retirement age ever been 70 for any cohort of Canadians???? Yea, like never. Even in the 60s the desired retirement age was 65 and then we were saddled with schlock like “Freedom 55”. Absolutely no one “wants to retire at 70”, well unless they’re still working today at 69. Everyone including moisters “want to retire and travel etc” at the earliest possible age but now TD are subtly conditioning the moisters to want to retire at 70 because that nice lady says so.

RyYYZ, if you personally don’t mind paying more taxes than you are obliged to then that’s totally your choice but IMO that is somewhat irresponsible but still your personal choice. The real issue for you may then be, at 71 the regs tell you how much you MUST withdraw as a minimum. If you don’t need it, too bad, you must take it out and be taxed as if it is interest. So, unless you’re absolutely certain that you’re gonnna croak before 71 then you’re stuck with an accellerating forced withdrawal that you don’t think you need. If it weren’t for that forced redemption regulation then RRSPs “could” be a decent vehicle for a lot more folks. We rarely know when we are going to expire and medical science has take the actuarial expectancy for a man well past the 70 point and just to drive the point a little harder…if you are elderly and healthy then a retirement apartment in Toronto for example, can cost you around $6500-7000 net income today with meals etc and that ain’t ever going down.

#224 aa5 on 01.16.18 at 2:23 pm

There are tons of people taking like $40 grand out in home equity loans to buy these coins.

The thing is after the coins crash to nothing.. the bank will send someone by, first of every month, to collect their payments.

#225 Steven Rowlandson on 01.16.18 at 2:37 pm

RE: 167
Low unemployment if for real might be of limited value if the hours are in the 1 to 40 hour range per week and or near minimum wage. Not everyone is getting preferential treatment in the labour market. The top 1 to 5 percent of income earners should not be used to determine and represent the national average income and the use of family income as a cover for multiple incomes is also misleading.

#226 tkid on 01.16.18 at 2:44 pm

Why is XSP being gutted today when IVV and SPY have gone up?

#227 Foreign on 01.16.18 at 2:58 pm

Wow, this guy gets it 100%
His video is to the point, and should be mandatory viewing for everyone bitching about foreigners buying up BC:

“The Vancouver streets Westminster and Ninth were changed to Main and Broadway to increase sales to U.S. investors.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fG9veJCHgPo

Foreign investment is:
1) not new.
2) small compared to domestic investment.

#228 Mark on 01.16.18 at 2:59 pm

“Mark gives a useless Dickish response to my perhaps somewhat Diskish question”

Kinda sad that you would speak in public with that kind of mouth, let alone to a fellow member of the profession.

Anyways, at the 40% bracket, as I pointed out, there is no eligibility for OAS, so an incremental dollar earned doesn’t have an additional incremental amount of clawback/reduction in OAS. Therefore, you do not merely add 15% to 40%, its just 40% (or whatever the specific/actual tax bracket may be at that level).

The net effect being, with the reduction in OAS benefits, an elderly high income earner (ie: > $122,843 /annum) actually has a lower marginal tax rate.

This might be something that policy makers should consider when formulating tax policy, if the goal is to develop a progressive system of tax policy. Perhaps the OAS ‘clawback’ is completely inappropriate. Or perhaps OAS itself should be cancelled (something I’d personally support, as OAS is unfunded and governments at all levels are heavily indebted, meaning that its little more than intergenerational theft!).

#229 Tater on 01.16.18 at 3:04 pm

#118 Mark on 01.15.18 at 9:59 pm
“Poloz can’t raise or 33% of Canadians go bankrupt. Cold turkey is not easy folks especially with an addictive drug like debt!”

How many Canadians “go bankrupt” if Poloz doesn’t raise? Just like lots of people are in a vulnerable situation if Poloz raises, many are in a vulnerable situation if Poloz doesn’t.

Remember, interest rates neither create nor destroy wealth. They just redistribute it.
—————————————————————-
This is nonsense. When the housing bubble bursts, a large amount of wealth will disappear. It won’t be redistributed from over-levered homeowners to conservative savers.

#230 Ian on 01.16.18 at 3:10 pm

Garth is right about the whole Bitcoin going up thing. It’s something I struggle with in my own trading. It’s the same problem as dotcoms in that, sure the chart for a time looks amazing, but you’re buying something that’s worth zero. So, if you have the trading sense to get long and then get out, great. But it’s incredibly risky and I wouldn’t get involved. It definitely doesn’t belong in any credible portfolio.

The cap on the number of coins that can be generated is complete nonsense as a bullish factor. Doesn’t mean a thing. Companies have a limited number of shares too, doesn’t mean they can’t go to zero value.

Also, you’ll find that 99% of the people who were long and made money on Bitcoin are STILL long and bullish, even as it falls apart. Very few would have had the foresight to sell. That’s how markets work. Most will hold all the way down to zero.

#231 james on 01.16.18 at 3:13 pm

#217 RE_Investor on 01.16.18 at 1:15 pm

#208 james:
In the case of bitcoin, the cryptocurrency has a set cap of 21 million bitcoins. Many analysts note that this set cap makes bitcoin more desirable than other assets, even gold. That’s because unlike with gold, there’s no need to worry about a digital Gold Rush. A treasure trove of bitcoin won’t ever be “discovered,” causing the crypto’s price to crash with an influx in supply.

Lol, 1,450 crypto-currencies to choose from and kodakcoin soon.
https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/
…………………………………………………………………..
Still have that bridge for sale, are you interested?
Cryto’s are just like throwing objects into the air. Some aloft for a long time and some don’t. The main thought that you have to keep in mind that eventually they all come back to earth. Crypto’s are just too volatile and I’m not interested in a get rich quick scheme. I would rather diversify and go slow and steady. I have age on my side!

#232 james on 01.16.18 at 3:19 pm

#224 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 2:04 pm
#92 Smoking Man Is Gone on 01.15.18 at 8:49 pm
Yahooooo, now if we could just get rid of SCM too, we’d be whole again.
———
I’m not going anywhere, crybaby.
………………………………………………………………..
In Chinese philosophy, yin and yang (yīnyáng, lit. “bright-dark”, “positive-negative”) describe how seemingly opposite or contrary forces may actually be complementary, interconnected, and interdependent in the natural world, and how they may give rise to each other as they interrelate to one another. Many tangible dualities (such as light and dark, fire and water, expanding and contracting) are thought of as physical manifestations of the duality symbolized by yin and yang. The two of you need each other to survivor. So there you have it SCM & SM are Yin & Yang I’m pretty sure I know which one is SM.

#233 Harold Ballard (ghost of) on 01.16.18 at 3:25 pm

#197 BTC vs NHL on 01.16.18 at 11:18 am
BTC is over and done, but there is still a glimmer of hope for the NHL to come to their senses.
@@@@@@

We just can’t afford to send our NHL players.
What if they get hurt?

I’m not talkin about a little dust-up aka “Canadian-Russian Ballet”.
Those Koreans are trained to turn their skates into a pair of deadly nunchucks, and who pays the bills for that mess?
Yours truly.

#234 IHCTD9 on 01.16.18 at 3:31 pm

#205 InvestorsFriend on 01.16.18 at 12:06 pm

… Just a couple days ago I went through the math of how the growth of our NET share of the RRSP (after deducting the refund cash back) is taxed at ZERO% if the marginal tax rate remains unchanged (so ties a TFSA) and easily beat a taxable account even when the marginal tax rate was 7 percentage points higher in my example the other day. The refund effectively funds part of our RRSPs and grows to precisely pay the tax when the marginal tax rate is unchanged.

But people believe what they want to believe, especially when they need to in order to justify their past decisions.
____________________________________

The RRSP offers tax free deposits, tax free gains, and a decent income calibrated maximum. All you really need to do is hop on a compound interest calculator to see the results:

A 25 year old deposits 500.00 per month, and then takes his 1800.00 tax return and deposits it as well every year. Life goes on, and he does the same thing for 40 years right to 65:

He has deposited 312,500.00

72,000.00 of that 312K was tax money he never would have received back any other way, so he has essentially “earned” (it back) as a sort of tax free “income” or lotto winning imho.

Considering the free 72K prize for using the RRSP, he has really only deposited 240,500.00 of his own net dollars.

Total interest earned is 659,000.00

Passive income while preserving the principal – 46K/yr

He’s essentially spent 240K pre tax dollars to gross 1 Million.

If he pulls 45K out per year, he’ll pay about 6900.00 in taxes (15.29%)

55K would pay 9800.00 in taxes (17.81%)

65K would pay 12,758.00 in taxes (19.63%)

If you’ve worked all you life making a decent wage, you could expect 22K from CPP/OAS, drop the interest only from the RRSP on top, and you’ve got 67K to live off of, and pay 31,351.00 income tax (20%).

That’s 20% on government handouts and pure capital gain. Hard to complain.

#235 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 3:38 pm

#235 james on 01.16.18 at 3:19 pm

I am the light. Shining bright enlightenment on the dark and evil forces of baby boomer ignorance.

#236 Ray on 01.16.18 at 3:38 pm

#229 tkid on 01.16.18 at 2:44 pm
Why is XSP being gutted today when IVV and SPY have gone up?
———————————————————————————-
look at XSP.T on a weekly time chart, and extend the time frame back to 2012. Draw parallel trend lines that captures the graph, top and bottom. The last week’s activity has placed it above the top channel. To me, it is a reversion to the mean. The price could fall to the $26 range, and still be in trend.

#237 Ian on 01.16.18 at 3:39 pm

UUP off a cliff again today. US dollar getting mashed!

#238 John Dough on 01.16.18 at 3:47 pm

#232 Tater on 01.16.18 at 3:04 pm
#118 Mark on 01.15.18 at 9:59 pm
……..

Remember, interest rates neither create nor destroy wealth. They just redistribute it.
—————————————————————-
This is nonsense. When the housing bubble bursts, a large amount of wealth will disappear. It won’t be redistributed from over-levered homeowners to conservative savers.

********
Wealth is what’s in your pocket.
The rest is just an “estimate”, whether it’s a house, a stock, a bond, or your account balance at GTI.
True wealth is something else again.
Remember these sage words and you’ll never be disappointed.

#239 NoName on 01.16.18 at 3:54 pm

#227 aa5 on 01.16.18 at 2:23 pm
There are tons of people taking like $40 grand out in home equity loans to buy these coins.

The thing is after the coins crash to nothing.. the bank will send someone by, first of every month, to collect their payments.

and now there is that dude on radio telling sell btc buy fizikal gold…

#240 NoName on 01.16.18 at 3:57 pm

#238 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.16.18 at 3:38 pm
#235 james on 01.16.18 at 3:19 pm

I am the light. Shining bright enlightenment on the dark and evil forces of baby boomer ignorance.

if you think of yourself a a light you are very dim light…

https://hackernoon.com/the-attention-economy-is-the-addiction-economy-a-call-for-ethical-emerging-tech-287ea58a3395

#241 LivinLarge on 01.16.18 at 4:29 pm

“The RRSP offers tax free deposits, tax free gains, and a decent income calibrated maximum.”…yup and this is what what soooo many people read and believe. It is simply not true today and it has never been true.

An RRSP deposit is absolutely nothing more than a mechanism to pay the tax on income and investment gains at a point later in life than when it was first deposited. Every cent will be taxed at some point. Back in the 90s when I was an advisor sitting across from clients, 99.99% thought things grew tax free and were withdrawn tax free and I had to break them if the misconception.

There is also this huge misconception that every one is going to need or want less in retirement than they do when they put the contribution in. I had the same 99.99% of folks thinking that they’re real lifestyle expense needs were going plummet at retirement and they would be living on soooo much less than they needed in even the last ten years of their working lives. Unfortunately this has actually never been the reality when it came to retiring. It is true that there are some expenses that do or are very likely to, drop but other unrealized expenses creep in to offset some or much of that savings. Yes, in a proper world, there should be no mortgage to pay but 30 years ago people were far more likely to buy a home and stay in it till the mortgage was paid off, at least. Not now when the average time spent in a home is under 10 years before “moving up the real estate ladder” to a bigger and better house and and long before HELOCs became an automatic attachment to almost every mortgage. So, there was a time when an average Joe could realistically expect to buy a home and be mortgage free in about 20 years if their world didn’t collapse with unemployment etc. first. In a small portion of the owners there might be a loan to pay for a finished basement or maybe a new kitchen after 15 years but nothing like this wholesale avarice of granite counters, designer cabinets and pro/sumer commercial style appliances. And then there are the periodic drapes and carpet that would also slip onto the HELOC and therefore onto the title of the house.

So what? Well, although yes a lot of folks used to have as much as 15 years of mortgage freedom before retirement, now even if they are diligent enough to pay off a 1st mortgage, they still have tens of thousands of dollars owing in the HELOC so presuming that mortgage expenses drop away upon retirement doesn’t fit the “real world” today.

Sure, EI and CPP contributions likely stop when you stop working but they’re hardly the biggest chunk of your day to day living costs any way.

Utility expenses tend to increase maybe 20% because you’re at home a lot more durring working hours each day when at least electricity is charged out the highest.

Then there is the inevitable Canadian winter and the lure of being a snowbird so there is a generally unplanned expense for accomodation in the south. Yes, can and regularly is skipped by the lower income retiree but certainly not by all.

My point is, when you really get down and add everything up, the realistic and historically accurate “what will I need” calculation rarely comes in at less than 75-80% of the average of the last five years of family income.

BTW, that $35K per year thrown out in an earlier post isn’t even realistic today according to the vast majority of posters here last week. If minimum wage is never intended to provide a living then next January when the minimum wage in Ontario increases to $30K per year for a 40 hour week do you really think virtually any soon to be retiring 65 y/o is actually going to be doing a happy dance and living on the equivalent of minimum wage after working like a dog for 45 years…I don’t see it.

#242 Sean on 01.16.18 at 5:48 pm

Any source on that chart you posted?

#243 LivinLarge on 01.16.18 at 5:59 pm

“As for inflation it affects all investments equally and is irrelevant in the math comparing after-tax outcomes of RRSP, TFSA and taxable accounts.”…oh come on, you can’t be naive. If you are then none of your calculations can ever be trusted as remotely correct.

You’re just not familiar with the different tax treatment of different different sources of income outside of registered accounts. Yes in a resistered account there is no accounting for the type of investment income received but in non registered there are huge differences and therein lies the benefit of non registered investing for most of your working life.

My bank dividends will increase faster because of the interest increases due to inflation improves gross revenues at the bank while their staffing etc overhead doesn’t increase. And those dividends are very nicely taxed at zero until my total income from all sources reaches about $50K per year.

While not quite as easy to visualize, shares react to inflation in much the same way as dividends do. If my bank shares increase their yield then they become more desireable as long as people haven’t been killed by inflation and can’t buy anything. This is one of the wonderful features of increasing inflation, it pulls a lot of things upwards. Now the increased capital gains on the shares are only taxed on 1/2 their increase. Imexplained that to you 3 weeks ago and you acknowledge I was correct.

So, inflation does indeed effect the pretax incomes of investmestments effectively regardless of where the investments sit but all income regardless of source is taxed as wages/interest comming out of an RRSP, at dramatically different tax rates if not in an RRSP and not at all if in a TFSA.

Someone earlier today was trying to make some point using the current maximum CPP as some standard. According to Service Canada, the average CPP actually paid to Canadians taking it at 65 is just 57% of the theoretical maximum possible and a lot lower if taken at 60-64. The relative value of taking it as soon as possible has been explained here many times so, let’s stop using the maximum rate that almost noone actually gets it destroys credibility.

And 1Htc(?) when I earn $40,000 in RBC dividends, I pay ZERO tax and then about 15% on the next $20,000. So on $60K I pay about $3,000 tax or about %5 of total income. The numbers are actually a little better because I took CPP at 60 and don’t get $10,000 to take me over the $50K dividend tax credit beneft threshold.

Try taking nearly $50 grand out of an RRSP at %5 while having the CRA kiss you on both cheeks.

#244 TRUMP on 01.16.18 at 6:42 pm

#212 James

There are no normal people out there!!!!!

#245 Exurban on 01.16.18 at 6:42 pm

#165 Dan T

Or maybe it’s the local public investing like they always do- full gas- right at or near the very top of the market.. any market for that matter.

That may well be what the public is doing, but there are large new projects funded by big money that seem to be getting underway every week. The parkade at Lougheed Mall was reduced to dust a few weeks ago, the Safeway and its parking lot on Austin near Blue Mountain is now rubble, there’s a new giant hole in the ground at Drake and Hornby … this isn’t millenials staked by their parents.

#246 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.16.18 at 7:46 pm

@#238 SCM
“I am the light. Shining bright enlightenment on the dark and evil forces of baby boomer ignorance…..”
++++++++

Nah.
That “light’ is the flame from standing too close to me after lighting a match……..

#247 duane on 01.17.18 at 1:08 am

#43….It must be the nice weather;)