Seeking balance

On the weekend President Trump took personal credit (on Twitter) for creating more than two million jobs and propelling the Dow about the 25,000 mark. It was a remarkable brag. But it was also a part of the massive defense against ‘Fire and Fury’, the book trashing the prez, his family and every bubba with a Glock and an F150 that voted for the guy.

That was capped off with Oprah2020 Sunday night, so you can see what monumental mess we may be heading into over the next three dozen months.

Anyway, this is not about The Donald, but you. Investors everywhere are wondering how long this incredible bull market can last. As you may know, the Dow gained 5,000 points in 2017 – the first time that happened. The last thousand points came in a matter of weeks, the quickest advance ever. The index topped 25,000 and gained more than 25%. The S&P 500 (a much broader index) shot ahead 20%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq popped almost 30%.

Behind the explosion was a heady combination of job creation, romping corporate profits, global growth, corporate tax cuts and Trumpism. The US economy is growing nicely, consumer confidence is at the highest level in ages and, most importantly, tons more people are working than five years ago. Post-crisis unemployment of near 10% is now at 4%. The economists call that full employment, since about everyone who wants a job has one. There are more openings than applicants.

But it ain’t just America, Trump or the Dow. This euphoria for equities is…everywhere. According to the elves at Bloomberg, most major markets are ‘overbought’ – including the Dow, S&P, emerging markets, Nikkei, Euro and world indexes. Not since 1988, when I was an awesome, fully-invested, manly teenager, have markets been at this level. Even Bay Street, which gained 17% in 2016 and just 6% last year, seems poised for more as the economy grows and commodities rise.

Here is an incomprehensible relative strength index chart to prove the above and make this post look authoritative:

Is there more coming? Most analysts seem to think. Global growth was around 3% last year and is forecast to hit 4% in 2018. That’s impressive. Oil could add ten bucks after finally cracking sixty a barrel. After one whole year Trump has not yet imploded, which is progress. The massive drop in corporate tax will start benefitting American companies this year. If the nutbar running North Korea is serious about reducing tensions and snuggling with the south, then a major uncertainty is reduced.

But, still, record-high market levels are scary. People think anything that’s jumped must fall. They dredge up memories of their crappy bank mutual funds in 2008. Increasingly, there’s online chatter about a new stock crash. That may have propelled many ingénues into the sketchy arms of cryptocurrencies, which exemplify true risk.

Could markets decline?

Of course. Expect it. The shock would be if we get through 2018 without a correction. It might be 5%, or 10%. Maybe even 15%. But since the fundamentals are strong – robust growth, great corporate profits, modest inflation, mucho jobs, gently-rising rates and lower American taxes – the dip(s) will probably be short. That’s normal. Over the last 30 years stocks have plopped more than 10% on 24 occasions, lasting an average of 17 weeks. In other words, the people who sold when things were going down almost always bought back at a higher level. Some strategy.

So how do you invest (because everybody needs cash flow later in life, not paid-up real estate), and still sleep at night – even when assets take a hit?

Simple. Just like you should have in 2008-9 – with a balanced and diversified portfolio. During the credit crisis, when stocks tumbled 55% and took seven years to recover, the balanced portfolio shed only 20% and bounced back in a single year. The next year it advanced 17%. So someone snoozing through the worst financial storm of our lives made an average of 5% annually over the same three years when unbalanced people thought life was ending.

Now – maybe especially now – it’s the approach to take. The world is growing, so going to cash is a dumb move. Bitcoin? Forget it. Gold? Purely speculative. All-in stocks? Turmoil. Totally bonds? Rising rates will bring you down.

So, it’s probably time to remind you that over the active life of this pathetic blog, a portfolio with 40% safe stuff (roughly half bonds, half preferreds) and 60% growth assets (Canada, US and international equities, REITs), diversified by using ETFs, has returned over 7%. During that time there were some horrible markets (2011 debt crisis, 2015 oil collapse) as well as great ones (like 2017). Unlike real estate, the portfolio is always 100% liquid, does not require land transfer tax to buy or 5% commission to sell, doesn’t come with property tax, tenants, insurance or cable bills, nor does it have strata or condo fees. Instead of costing you money, it can pay you income – in a tax efficient way. And when you want to unload, there’s no realtor or Audi involved.

This looks like an important year. Continued growth, rising stocks, more record highs (there were 70 in 2017), higher rates, wobbling real estate, endless Trump, US midterm elections and, yes, Oprah2020. We’re way overdue for a market correction. Find balance, and you just won’t care.

191 comments ↓

#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.08.18 at 5:31 pm

SO THERE’S NO HOUSING BUBBLE IN HALIFAX…

If you moved away from the sky-high house prices in Victoria, Vancouver and Toronto to buy a house in Halifax, would you be buying in a city without a housing bubble? Let’s find out.

If it’s true that Halifax doesn’t have a housing bubble, then no factual evidence would exist to prove that there has been an extreme price run-up that has left gains in incomes far behind.

. . . . . . . . . . . House Prices. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . Percent Increase Since January 2000. . . . .
. . . . . .* = San Francisco, x = Halifax. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+144% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+120%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+96% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+72%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+48%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+24%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0%. . . . . *x. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
—————————————————————————–
. . . . . . .Jan. . . . . . . .June. . . . . . . .Oct. . .
. . . . . . 2000. . . . . . ..2007. . . . . . . 2017. . .

Sources: Case-Shiller Index (US), Teranet Index (Canada)

Clearly the facts point to a price run-up in Halifax that isn’t much smaller than that in San Francisco since 2000. Indeed house prices in Halifax have more than doubled since 2000 while gains in incomes have barely moved in comparison over the same period.

What’s even worse for Halifax is that Canadians from coast to coast have accumulated sky-high household debt levels, much higher than at the peak of the 2006/07 US bubble (second chart, Canada is black, US is blue). And skyrocketing debt levels are as big and as damaging of a factor in a housing bubble as the price run-up itself.

And, surely, if house prices were reasonable in Halifax then the facts would show that what Canadians pay for a house in Halifax would be a whole lot less than what Americans pay in San Diego, for example.

SAN DIEGO:

$599 K……..2,314 sq. ft………2018
4 beds, 3 baths, attached double garage

$609 K……..2,014 sq. ft………2018
3 beds, 2 baths, attached double garage

$619 K……..2,498 sq. ft………2018
4 beds, 3 baths, attached double garage

$634 K……..2,147 sq. ft………2018
3 beds, 3 baths, attached double garage

HALIFAX (comparable, but SMALLER house):

$628 K……..1,856 sq. ft………2017
3 beds, 2 baths, attached double garage

#2 TurnerNation on 01.08.18 at 5:32 pm

Super early post. Next leg up for XEG.TO here. Go maple

#3 nick on 01.08.18 at 5:33 pm

I think 2018 is the year. Rising rates and rising inflation are going to pinch a lot of people. At all time high debt levels, which were fueling all of this “growth”, are having their cost to carry increased significantly on a percentage basis. This will also slow down future accumulation of debt (self control, or denied by lenders). With that, growth will slow.

#4 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.08.18 at 5:35 pm

(continued)

There’s no denying it, the cheapest listings in each city show that what Canadians pay for a house in Halifax is as much (or more) than what Americans pay for a comparable house in San Diego. (Note that the difference in the dollar is immaterial since a similar comparison (even more shocking actually) could have been made in 2013 when the Canadian and American dollars were at par.)

So… move to Halifax only to pay San Diego prices after Halifax has gone through a price run-up that isn’t much smaller than that of San Francisco just because houses in Halifax are more affordable than in Victoria, Vancouver or Toronto – some of the biggest housing bubbles the world has seen?

IT’S THE WARM WEATHER, BABY!

Bubble deniers in Victoria and Vancouver vehemently argue that sky-high house prices in those cities are justified by warmer weather compared to other major Canadian cities. But if warmer weather really was the thing – then why does freezing cold Halifax have California-like bubble numbers? And why was it that the warmest American cities, in general, experienced the biggest busts in the US housing meltdown?

Shockingly, the facts show that the amount prices have skyrocketed in freezing cold Halifax isn’t much less than in sunny and warm (and tech central) San Francisco – which, as many Americans would argue, is supposedly the American epicenter of real estate investment for wealthy investors from Asia (Halifax… not so much).

But why is this so?

Canada and the States share similar interest rate levels, so record-low rates aren’t the reason that house prices have climbed almost as much in Halifax as in San Francisco since 2000. (Don’t be confused – prices in Halifax are cheaper than in San Francisco – the statement points to how much prices have increased (percent) in each city since 2000.)

IRRESPONSIBLE POLICY

Despite similar income levels, house prices in Canada have skyrocketed past those in the States since 2006 as a direct result of reckless and irresponsible policy.

In Canada, we had 0-down, 40 year mortgages after 2006. As well, since that time, mortgage fraud has exploded, Canada’s subprime mortgage market has been on fire, lax lending standards have been poorly enforced and CMHC has backed all of these reckless mortgages, removing all risk from the banks. And CMHC has allowed local speculators – highly leveraged local speculators – to bid up house prices even though the properties weren’t purchased to be lived in by the speculators.

(Canada’s housing market was healthy and functioning normally from 1995-2000 with stable prices, adequate support from incomes and with household debt levels at normal, “safe” levels. Then lax lending standards were implemented…)

The real-estate pumping Canadian media will say things like “despite an increase in the minimum down payment, house prices in Canada have continued to soar higher”.

Sure the minimum down payment in Canada increased from 0% to 5% in recent years, but 5% would be considered subprime in any country with responsible mortgage lending standards. In the States, for example, the minimum down payment is 20%. Adhering to a 5% minimum down payment rule does not constitute a responsible lending practice.

So reckless and irresponsible (kick the can down the road) policy is the reason that house prices in freezing cold Halifax have climbed almost as much as in San Francisco since 2000.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A “SAFE” BUBBLE

A bubble is a bubble and history has shown with many examples over the past 200 years that no country with a housing bubble anywhere in the world has ever experienced a soft landing.

Housing corrections are common. Soft landings occur when a housing market corrects and goes back to (or dips below) the long-term mean after years of small price gains (with similar gains in incomes to support prices) and when household debt levels remain at normal and “safe” levels.

Hard landings occur when a housing market corrects and goes back to (or dips below) the long-term mean after years of unusually big price gains (without similar gains in incomes to support prices) and when household debt levels skyrocket (think bubble and think Canada).

And the bust is always as irrational as the boom.

#5 alex stanford on 01.08.18 at 5:39 pm

#236 conan on 01.08.18 at 5:24 pm
Lots of blog talk of people wanting to leave Canada. Seems to be Harper Conservative peeps smart enough to read the writing on the wall for 2019.

Don’t let the door………………….

—————————–

How is that – 40 degrees feeling? enjoyable? thank you. It will benefit you to unfreeze your brain once in a while.

==========================

do not buy bonds.

70 % equities, 20 % preferreds, 10 % gold.

We will see 15 % + increase in stock markets – US mostly, Aisa, some Europe, in 2018 as runaway inflation shows up accompanied by token rate increases.

30 % + increase in gold miners, 40 % in junior miners.

#6 David W2 on 01.08.18 at 5:40 pm

Good advice, sounds authoritative :)

#7 LivinLarge on 01.08.18 at 5:47 pm

“In other words, the people who sold when things were going down almost always bought back at a higher level. Some strategy.”…some strategy indeed.

Nothing changes as much as it stays the same. Every dip, slip or crash in history has delivered the same sort of latency driven stupidity. The old mantra of “buy and hold” may not be 100% correct 100% of the time but over any 1/2 decade time frame it certain has proven to be far better than sell out of fear and buy back 17 weeks later.

If you really want to play floating crap game with your wealth then that’s your right but if it has never proven to work out well then you’re just going to end up hurting.

Pay a true “pro” to make decisions for you and since it’s not their actual money, you can at the very least have a reasonable chance of minimizing latency bias. Oh, the [email protected] isn’t a “true pro” and neither is the friendly mutual fund flogging sales person passing themselves off as your greatest friend.

#8 Alexi Blantchford on 01.08.18 at 5:50 pm

Great advice from #5, Inflation and Gold love each other..great to have some metals in the port, ready for bigtime gains.

#9 For those about to flop... on 01.08.18 at 5:59 pm

Lost ….but not leased 21 pm
#227 flop
No problem..glad to assist..you provide great info.

Interesting re: the Twitter feed on CorruptGregor note purchase prices in 2017..then flip attempts a few months later..

These purchasers look like they got caught up as THE greater fools and simply want to cut their losses. The purchasers that are left will have sharp pencils and start vultching.

///////////////////////////

Hey Lost,

It’s not surprising that a lot of people got caught in the web last year.

Hardly a peep from the media and a lot of sellers are still trying to hang on.

I made sure that at least the people on this blog could see what was happening.Cant save everyone, most people gonna do what they’re gonna do.

So much disinformation out there.

I just wanna make it a fair fight…

M43BC

#10 145000 VEF for 1 US dollar they say! on 01.08.18 at 6:13 pm

What about the Loonie? Think Poloz is going to hike next week, or will he flake on it? Methinks he wants to set a new world record for the lowest loonie ever, or he wants the Canadian dollar to be renamed the Canadian Bolivar, or Canadian Maduro Peso, but with a terrible climate and no so friendly women.

#11 145000 VEF for 1 US dollar they say! on 01.08.18 at 6:17 pm

@ #1 C$785-OOO for a house in San Diego? Not too bad knowing that California is home to the HQ of Google, Facebook, YouTube, Levis Jeans, Hollywood and other perks.

What do you have in Ontariowe other than lost car manufacturing plants and not friendly people?

I’d rather be a slave for a tanned LA chick than listen to a female boss in Toronto. Now if I can exchange my Maduro Pesos for US dollars that would be great.

#12 Doug t on 01.08.18 at 6:17 pm

Watching the greedy masses and staying close to the exit doors

RATM

#13 common sense on 01.08.18 at 6:22 pm

If markets ever go down again, just buy the dip….

Really can any gov’t deal with the unrest if pension funds, market ever crash?

Really???

#14 Terry on 01.08.18 at 6:23 pm

The Trump Presidency is performing wonderfully! The drama and entertainment being created is keeping the Democrat/Liberal herd distracted and divided while the rest of us continue to quietly make even more money!

Brilliant job Mr Trump! Genius work! I salute you Mr President!

Signed,

A Canadian Trump supporter!

#15 conan on 01.08.18 at 6:23 pm

I am having trouble thinking of a year that has as much potential turmoil as 2018. Balanced for sure, but for me its 60 bonds and 40 equity. Keep in mind I consider preferred shares as an equity, whereas you do not.

So I am still sort of pro on the markets but not married to them. Lots of profit taking and redistribution to get to my 60- 40.

Korea is red hot as far as danger is concerned, but Saudi Arabia and Iran is also right up there. Might even be worse. We have a human rights violation/tragedy happening in Yemen that the press is not reporting on. Iran is compelled by humanity to protect them, so…… shit on a stick is on the menu.

#16 conan on 01.08.18 at 6:27 pm

#5 alex stanford on 01.08.18 at 5:39 pm

“It will benefit you to unfreeze your brain once in a while.”

Worst government I have ever seen in Canada, so glad they are gone.

#17 earthboundmisfit on 01.08.18 at 6:29 pm

Oprah 2020? I missed that, having declined my invitation to the ego stroking party of the vain and vacuous.

#18 mark on 01.08.18 at 6:31 pm

To advocate a so called balanced portfolio for one size fit all is simply wrong.

Not everyone has started to “invest” early enough to cover there retirement needs.

If you need 8-9% returns for your nest egg to live on your shooting yourself in the foot with the above portfolio and its guarantees your going to be eating macaroni 5 times a week in retirement because you will have a retirement short fall in your nest egg.

Bonds and Preferreds are a death sentence for a growth portfolio, and Preferreds and BMO ZPR have returned a whooping 2 percent since inception, yes but that’s right they pay a dividend to own them and that’s what we are after right? Too each there own, not on all peoples watch!

Good luck to all.

2018 US invades Iran, is possible Black Swan event.

Learn about rate reset preferreds and corporate bonds. Then come back. – Garth

#19 Looney Baloney on 01.08.18 at 6:32 pm

screwed canuck mill is a racist, sexist and ageist. That is why he/she/it keeps promoting the minimum wage hike.

… a higher minimum wage significantly reduces the shares of both younger (? 25) and older (> 40) workers in jobs that are automatable, by a larger magnitude compared to those aged 26-39….

… females are affected more adversely than males: in the aggregate estimates in column (1), the negative estimate is significant only for females, and is almost ten times larger, indicating that, for females, a minimum wage increase of $1 causes a decrease of 1.01 percentage points in the share of automatable jobs (the elasticity is ?0.14). …

… similar overall effects by race, with a $1 increase in the minimum wage reducing the share in automatable jobs by 0.57 percentage point for whites and 0.72 percentage point for blacks….

http://www.nber.org/papers/w23667

#20 MF on 01.08.18 at 6:36 pm

“But, still, record-high market levels are scary. People think anything that’s jumped must fall. They dredge up memories of their crappy bank mutual funds in 2008. Increasingly, there’s online chatter about a new stock crash. That may have propelled many ingénues into the sketchy arms of cryptocurrencies, which exemplify true risk.”

-Or 2015.

It took my newly created balanced portfolio over a year to fully recover after falling about 15%. Scared me enough to develop an aversion to investing that I still have.

I always chuckle when I hear the newbies proudly proclaiming that their portfolio is up 20%. Aside from a few dangerous times to jump in (like when i did), this bull market has made everyone look like a genius, and is a bit of an anomaly. Just wait for the crying to begin after some real pullbacks. Pullbacks to reality.

Oh and by the way, I do believe the main reason why stocks rebounding so quick in 2008 was from central bank manipulation. That is likely to be more muted or absent next financial crisis, which is inevitable.

MF

#21 MF on 01.08.18 at 6:40 pm

Oprah 2020 = Trump easily re-elected. Another woman running for office will further strengthen the pendulum swing away from social leftism that got Trump elected.

MF

#22 Suede on 01.08.18 at 6:41 pm

Don’t wait forever for “the dip”

Rising rates and low unemployment will force wages up.

People will sacrifice spending money for mortgage payments

Bitcoin 50% haircut followed by a break to $25k

It’s going to be an epic year

#23 Landrie Holcomb on 01.08.18 at 6:41 pm

Garth, how much more does Canopy have to grow? Imagine the call if you got that one to go with the balanced portfolio..it’s growing like a WEED! Unfortunate opportunity missed by me.

#24 AK on 01.08.18 at 6:42 pm

“yes, Oprah2020”
=====================================

She does not have the personality to be a politician. But, we will see what happens.

#25 conan on 01.08.18 at 6:50 pm

#21 Looney Baloney on 01.08.18 at 6:32 pm

Rubbish!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BbpF-aECUAAgP75.jpg

#26 Lost...but not leased on 01.08.18 at 6:52 pm

Maybe this is Captain Obvious territory….but isn’t it clear that loose monetary policy is simply the Gov’t message that the olde economy is toast…the only out to quell revolution is to indulge and perpetuate this fiat fantasy ?

….aka you have no hope of your wages in sync with old metrics….simply join the party till it crashes.

Just finished seeing the movie “The Big Short”(available on line)….quite good and morseo informative.

#27 MF on 01.08.18 at 6:52 pm

#20 mark on 01.08.18 at 6:31 pm

“2018 US invades Iran, is possible Black Swan event.”

-Won’t happen. The homegrown opposition to the Iranian regime has been galvanized with Trump’s support. This is apparent now that Obama’s tacit approval for this government that openly supports regional terrorists is finally gone.

Look for the Trump admin to put much needed pressure on the Iranian government to stop its support of terrorist militias all throughout the mid east. A move that will reduce tension, conflict.

Trump supporters are also generally against foreign conflict. If anyone has read “the art of the deal” his plan is diplomacy.

MF

#28 tccontrarian on 01.08.18 at 6:55 pm

“Is there more coming? Most analysts seem to think.”
—————————————————–
Unfortunately, “Most analysts” are not millionaires (from their savvy investments), so actually betting against their outlook is likely to be a more prudent strategy.
====================================

“The world is growing, so going to cash is a dumb move. Bitcoin? Forget it. Gold? Purely speculative. All-in stocks? Turmoil. Totally bonds? Rising rates will bring you down.” -GT
***********************************************
Quite poetic but:
Going to a healthy cash position is never ‘dumb’ (you can deploy capital when there’s a correction); especially after an 8 year bull market!

My opinion only, of course.

Oprah for President? Hey, after Obama and then Trump ANYTHING is possible!

TCC

#29 Penny Henny on 01.08.18 at 6:57 pm

I’ve adjusted my weightings to 20% safe, 25% equities and the rest cash. My bet is for a bit of a correction before end of March. If I’m wrong I’m wrong. But being newly retired this is the least risky bet while continuing to live off my stash. If the markets drop 10 points then I will transfer another 20-25% into equities

#30 TheDood on 01.08.18 at 7:02 pm

#4 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.08.18 at 5:35 pm
_____________________________________________

Your post had me……until I read “Despite similar income levels…..” then it lost credibility.

Canadian income levels are lagging WAY WAY WAY behind Americans.

#31 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.08.18 at 7:04 pm

If the Dems even consider nominating Oprah for Pres then I will officially consider the world doomed.

#32 Cindy on 01.08.18 at 7:12 pm

I started “listening” to Fire and Fury today. I wasn’t going to buy it because I thought I’d read enough excerpts in the news, but then I got an email from Amazon promoting it for free with their “Audible” trial. Fire and Fury is what they’re using as bait to get people to sign up.

I guess that makes sense. It is, after all, the #1 bestseller. I took the bait.

WikiLeaks also leaked out a pirated version yesterday, deleted it, then reposted it. Either trying to get it in front of eyeballs, or hurt sales. It doesn’t appear they’ve explained their stance as of yet.

All I can say is HOLY S#!T. This really is nuts. 2018 isn’t going to just be an interesting year….my guess is it’s going to be one of the most interesting years we’ve seen in a while!! It’s a miracle Trump made it through his first year – I sure wouldn’t be betting on him making it through another. And I’m only two hours into the eleven hour audio.

Of course there’s some inconsistencies in the book and the Donald insists it’s FAKE NEWS – but a lot of it jives. It’s paints a pretty wild picture of what’s happening in the White House.

And Trump’s reaction to it was epic.

Now Kushner’s finanical ties are under investigation. Bannon has been roasted and probably won’t just slink away. And Mueller wants to interview Trump about Russia.

It’s going to be really interesting to see how this stable genius of a president, who is like, really smart, and starring in his own ongoing reality show will affect markets in 2018.

The show’s just starting….

Oh, and real estate. Canada. Yup.

It’s going to be a really interesting year.

#33 MAPC on 01.08.18 at 7:16 pm

@#20 Mark

How is your portfolio diversified?

#34 D Apostrophe on 01.08.18 at 7:19 pm

(cue ‘Here Comes The Flood’ by Peter Gabriel)

#35 Blacksheep on 01.08.18 at 7:28 pm

“That was capped off with Oprah 2020”
————————
What a friggen joke the US political system is.

If she runs, she will win. Big-O gonna fix everything.

Man people are clueless.

#36 TheSecretCode on 01.08.18 at 7:34 pm

Here is that 500k property that Garth was alluding to in the affordable Okanagan:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18288728/2293-Woodlawn-Street-Kelowna-British-Columbia-V1Y2T1-Kelowna-South

Talk about living the dream.

#37 espressobob on 01.08.18 at 7:41 pm

Spent the morning rebalancing. Rusty algebra and a crappy dollar store calculator. Managed to survive just barely. Bought some prefs and raised some cash.

Life is good.

#38 Dups on 01.08.18 at 7:41 pm

http://www.lfpress.com/2018/01/08/tim-hortons-slams-own-franchisees-over-cutting-workers-paid-breaks

#39 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 7:45 pm

Hey Smokey, is this what you had in mind?

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway could get a $37 billion windfall from tax cuts
http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-tax-cut-windfall-2018-1

Did Warren Buffett really need another tax cut? Do you really think it’s going to trickle down?

You got played son.

#40 Nah on 01.08.18 at 7:45 pm

Real estate , weed stocks and crypto

So easy it’s stupid

#41 TheSecretCode on 01.08.18 at 7:46 pm

Aj Hazzi the prophet, endorsed (possibly paid for marketing) by Shark Tank investor Barbara C released his Kelowna crystal ball – foresees the end of the RE bull market in Kelowna in the next 12 months where it will supposedly turn into a buyers market…

Ya think? Wonder what is causing that?

Already happening folks. Peaked out last spring…Spring numbers will cement it…not guaranteed, but anticipating that…place your bets.

#42 Tony on 01.08.18 at 7:47 pm

Re: #2 TurnerNation on 01.08.18 at 5:32 pm

The short interest on oil is the highest ever on record so either you’ll get a high up move in a short squeeze or a huge down move. I’m betting on a down move to the $51.50 U.S. level for West Texas crude. I think the computerized trading programs will allow for a down month for the stock market this April (the DOW for the month of April).

#43 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 7:49 pm

Unemployment at a 40 year low in Canada thanks to The Great Trudeau, Blessings Be Upon Him. Yet conservatives still aren’t happy. Thank god we have sound Liberal economic and fiscal prudence back at the helm after 10 years of the never ending Harper Recession.

#44 Ronaldo on 01.08.18 at 7:49 pm

”Not since 1988, when I was an awesome, fully-invested, manly teenager, have markets been at this level.”
—————————————————————–
You wish Garth. That would make me a 40 year old teenager as well back then. Lol

#45 Tony on 01.08.18 at 7:51 pm

Re: #15 common sense on 01.08.18 at 6:22 pm

When bubbles or ponzi’s implode you don’t buy the dip.

#46 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 7:52 pm

#21 Looney Baloney on 01.08.18 at 6:32 pm
Minimum wage increases are ‘supercharging’ economy, says U.S. multimillionaire
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/minimum-wage-increases-are-supercharging-economy-says-u-s-multimillionaire-1.3124917

Take a look at what actually happens in the real world. Not in some textbook academic theory.

Employment soars: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SEAT653NA

and unemployment plummets: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SEAT653URN

Why do conservatives get so mad about falling unemployment and rising wages?

#47 ANON on 01.08.18 at 7:57 pm

Master Blaster vs Aunty Entity in the Thunderdome for Bartertown ruling? :)
Dope.

#48 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 7:58 pm

#27 conan on 01.08.18 at 6:50 pm
Great pic. I forgot about that one. It’s a classic. Is that Garth at the top of the money pile? Just kidding Garth don’t kill me!

Here’s another one. https://imgur.com/vTDo53D

#49 TheDood on 01.08.18 at 8:02 pm

AK on 01.08.18 at 6:42 pm
“yes, Oprah2020”
=====================================

She does not have the personality to be a politician. But, we will see what happens.
+=================================

Yeah, but she’s got the cash and the credit to buy Washington 10 times over – including Trump! If she decides to run, she wins!

#50 Ronaldo on 01.08.18 at 8:02 pm

#13 rental property math on 01.08.18 at 6:19 pm

Not going to brag about my double and triple bagger stock picks by listing the tickers and my actual percentage gains.
However, you do know the end of prohibition can only happen once right?
I have a new pick with a lot of rumors floating around. Just waiting for the news to come out.

What do you retired guys like doing for fun? I might be half your age but I’ll be in your boat soon.
————————————————————–
Yes, you will be and sooner than you think. Time goes by fast when you’re having fun. Myself, I enjoy climbing to the peaks and seeing the world from a whole different view. Makes things down below look so small. Plus, it keeps me in shape.

#51 BobC on 01.08.18 at 8:05 pm

Does the 7% avg annual growth include dividends?

Total return, of course. – Garth

#52 Ronaldo on 01.08.18 at 8:05 pm

#16 Terry on 01.08.18 at 6:23 pm

The Trump Presidency is performing wonderfully! The drama and entertainment being created is keeping the Democrat/Liberal herd distracted and divided while the rest of us continue to quietly make even more money!

Brilliant job Mr Trump! Genius work! I salute you Mr President!

Signed,

A Canadian Trump supporter!
———————————————————
I concur.

#53 Damifino on 01.08.18 at 8:05 pm

So someone snoozing through the worst financial storm of our lives made an average of 5% annually over the same three years when unbalanced people thought life was ending.
———————————-

I am one of those who snoozed. Well okay, I didn’t exactly snooze, but neither did I cry on the phone to my advisors every day. In fact, I was only in contact with them a couple of times during the entire ‘crisis’. “Don’t sell into a falling market” is what they said. “This has been planned for in advance”.

I put the 20% loss I incurred over a six month period out of my mind and instead put my faith in the long term, balanced approach. It wasn’t fun, but it was the correct action (or lack of action). The market went a lot further south than my portfolio. I took comfort in that.

In the end, things played out for me just as Garth describes above. I’m much stronger for it.

#54 TheSecretCode on 01.08.18 at 8:07 pm

Confirmed B20 pull forward in Kelowna over a couple of months in the rush to beat it…numbers out for Dec. back to dropping…wait until Jan numbers are out in Feb…

As for Scamcouver…what happened to the b20 pull forward? mixed data coming out of the region…over consuming burn out by the consumer?

Bit fatigued with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th mortgages and Helocs? How much more debt can Canadians stuff? Not feeling the 1M dollar price tag for a dump? Starting to wake up to the fact that 1M is a lot of money and banks have you hook, line and sinker? Didn’t do your math? Ouch.

The banks still want to be your friend though.

Pull forward your children’s children future by debt leveraging it now…if you are among the few who have not already done so and start living it! Whew!!!!

You want those nice shiny things that you have always dreamed about? Everybody gets HELOC. Canadian Dream!

#55 conan on 01.08.18 at 8:09 pm

Canada looks good, regardless of what happens in 2018. I guess Donald could try to cripple Canada with a Ferengi trade demand, but that will back fire on him, and his administration. Trump is going to get a reality check at the mid terms, and that will change his priorities. He will go very low key at that point. Lame duck a la mode with bacon strips on top with potatoes, crispy.

#56 BobC on 01.08.18 at 8:11 pm

#41 SCM

What % is that $37 billion? What % of tax savings will the middle class get.
How do you give a huge tax break to someone that doesn’t pay any or maybe $100-$200 a year?
Do you ever get tired of living with that dark cloud over your head 24/7.
I feel sorry for you.

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.18 at 8:11 pm

@#35 MAPC
“@#20 Mark
How is your portfolio diversified?”
+++++

Mark’s Mom does the laundry while he takes out the garbage.

#58 BG on 01.08.18 at 8:15 pm

From which amount is it ok to do stock picking?

I got a windfall and found a fee based investor which I instructed to go 75% equity (US-Canada,World) and 25% safe stuff.

He wants to sock pick in each category.
Here is his rational:
-Canadian equity: TSX lacks diversification
-US equity: 50% SP500, 50% stock picking to outperform SP500.
-World: It is such a broad category that they want to stock pick
-Bonds: I don’t remember his excuse for this category.

Does it make sense? I’m used to a simple Canadian Couch potato portfolio using 4 ETFs.significant;y greater risk
His strategy has a lot of stock picking. I’m bit worried.

If you have less than seven figures, you should worry. Stock-pickers almost always fail to meet the benchmark and expose you to significantly greater risk. – Garth

#59 BG on 01.08.18 at 8:16 pm

In my previous post:
fee based investor = fee based advisor

#60 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 8:18 pm

#58 BobC on 01.08.18 at 8:11 pm

Bob… you’re clueless.

Do you people even think before you post.

#61 People are Strange on 01.08.18 at 8:21 pm

#48
Nobody is saying increasing minimum wage is a bad idea; it just can’t be done at once. Just do it over a few years. Simple!

#62 Ronaldo on 01.08.18 at 8:24 pm

#22 MF on 01.08.18 at 6:36 pm

Oh and by the way, I do believe the main reason why stocks rebounding so quick in 2008 was from central bank manipulation. That is likely to be more muted or absent next financial crisis, which is inevitable.

MF
————————————————————-
And the interesting thing about the rebound was that it came about with very little volume of buying even into early 2010. Who do you think was busy buying at that time. Maybe HFT computers buying and selling to each other. Most of the big financial institutions missed out on the big run up as they were forced into selling the stocks that Joe Six Pack was dumping in fear that things would go to zero. As a result these institutions were caught without the cash to invest and missed out on some nice gains. So, many funds took much longer to regain their losses. A lesson for the next round.

#63 TheSecretCode on 01.08.18 at 8:25 pm

Good news on that 500K dream home in a place they call K-Town – they dropped the price 50K…was in the mid 5’s…been listed, like, forever.

Some call it a price reduction; however, the new term nowadays is to say “new price” or not even admit anything happened by pulling and re-listing…

Call a spade a spade…this is the standard of living that you get when the criminal element and corruption takes over…any pull back is basically a reduction in crime / corruption…whoaaaa! Canadians are getting heated, let’s slow her down boys so they don’t riot…walk that fine line…

The difference of opinion on this subject lies in the way one views crime / corruption.

BC = Bring Cash, Big Crime, Beyond Corrupt, Beautiful Casinos…you get the idea.

#64 ETFer on 01.08.18 at 8:25 pm

Hey guys, for preferreds I have HPR right now… but with rates rising, should I switch to ZPR? A mix of the two?

Cheers!

#65 NoName on 01.08.18 at 8:27 pm

Oprah2020.

My kids watched this show drake and josh, few yrs back.

opera can do anything (20sec)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhJ1hsrSDzo

#66 Ronaldo on 01.08.18 at 8:28 pm

#29 MF

Trump supporters are also generally against foreign conflict. If anyone has read “the art of the deal” his plan is diplomacy.

MF
—————————————————————
Yes, and I am willing to bet that we will see Mr. Trump and the Rocket Man at the negotiating table sooner than we think. I doubt that either one of them is willing to commit suicide.

#67 Pete on 01.08.18 at 8:30 pm

Dear Screwed Canadian Millenial

You’re obviously drinking the T2 coolaid or smoking T2’s legalized herbs. Either way, the internet is full of crap for mills to swallow and repost links. Reality is we’re one of the most indebted nations in the world, and you’re going to pay dearly in short time. Thanks be to T2

#68 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 8:31 pm

#29 MF

Trump supporters are also generally against foreign conflict. If anyone has read “the art of the deal” his plan is diplomacy.

———————-

Lol yeah and Bush ran on a policy against nation-building. How did that go? Trump is warmongering all over the place, spending another $100 billion on military every year that the US doesn’t have.

Tony Schwarz wrote Art of The Deal. Not Trump. Trump can’t read.

#69 the Jaguar on 01.08.18 at 8:34 pm

#43 TheSecretCode on 01.08.18 at 7:46 pm
Aj Hazzi the prophet, endorsed (possibly paid for marketing) by Shark Tank investor Barbara C released his Kelowna crystal ball – foresees the end of the RE bull market in Kelowna in the next 12 months where it will supposedly turn into a buyers market…

Unless I missed it in your analysis (yesterday #166) of BC marketplace alternatives, it omitted Vancouver Island. If the Okanagan and lower mainland are unattractive, what about the island north of Victoria? Parksville, Qualicum, Nanaimo? Why not go further west instead of east to Calgary? Just curious.

#70 For those about to flop... on 01.08.18 at 8:39 pm

Having just gotten back from Phoenix and reflecting on the trip, I thought of this short conversation with my wife.

Phoenix has a light rail system which you have to pay for.

They also have a short elevated link between the airport and the light rail called Phoenix Skytrain that is free.

My wife remarked that it is good that the link is free.

I stated that we most likely paid for the ride beforehand.

She asked what I meant by that.

I simply pointed at one word engraved on the threshold ….Bombardier …

M43BC

#71 AB boxster on 01.08.18 at 8:43 pm

SCM

So many posts.
So little to contribute.

#72 For those about to flop... on 01.08.18 at 8:45 pm

#65 TheSecretCode on 01.08.18 at 8:25 pm

BC = Bring Cash, Big Crime, Beyond Corrupt, Beautiful Casinos…you get the idea.

////////////////////////

You forgot BoC.

And I’m not talking about the Bank of Canada…

M43BC

#73 LarryK on 01.08.18 at 8:51 pm

One of the reasons for the perhaps-soon-to-be greatest/longest bull run in history is “Trumpism” but no mention whatsoever of the fellow who preceded Cinnamon Hitler in the White House. Easy to see where your political and social sympathies lie.

#74 Smoking Man on 01.08.18 at 8:54 pm

#41 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 7:45 pm
Hey Smokey, is this what you had in mind?

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway could get a $37 billion windfall from tax cuts
http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-tax-cut-windfall-2018-1

Did Warren Buffett really need another tax cut? Do you really think it’s going to trickle down?

You got played son.
…..

Good for him, when the rich get richer I get richer two.
Why do you give a shit about the plight of others.
Man up. Become am entrupenur make money on the backs of others who are too afraid of risk.
Or continue to wine about like you do now.

Do actully think money in govt hands goes to good use. Give your head a shake. They waste it.

#75 T on 01.08.18 at 9:03 pm

#48 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 7:52 pm

You, like many of my friends, take CBC reporting like it’s the gold standard.

I bet you believe everything you read on reddit too.

I would also like to point out, the minimum wage increases you point towards are localized to very specific geographical areas. They are not state wide. You do as the difference in this approach, right?

#76 conan on 01.08.18 at 9:05 pm

#34 Cindy on 01.08.18 at 7:12 pm

I have been reading the same book. I believe the author when he says that he left some really bad stuff out.

https://youtu.be/FcPQ9gww_qc?t=59

But Trump is not Chauncey.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W25_jgiY51I

#77 Hugh Janus on 01.08.18 at 9:07 pm

This country is going to be really screwed soon when the boomers decide they need retirement cash so they are going to dump their luvshacks all around the same time.

However the excitement will come when a large number of luvshacks hit the market at the same time with b20 now in effect and then they have to pay out a heloc they took on to fund their little johnies condo purchase. All the while rates will keep creeping up and values sliding downward.

Now that the first timers have been pulled out of the market by high prices and b20 etc im curious as to who is going to buy all the luvshacks coming online. The boomers are bragging up their shacks value but perhaps forgetting they displaced their own little johnie from financing their wrinkled years.

Im sure it will be ok in ontariowe as they have a minimum wage there to make up the difference and help the $14 an hour walyworld cashiers qualify for the $750 000 to 1.5 million plus luvshacks.

#78 LilyJoe~ on 01.08.18 at 9:12 pm

Thank you for the good advice.

#79 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 9:37 pm

#23 MF on 01.08.18 at 6:40 pm

Oprah 2020 = Trump easily re-elected. Another woman running for office will further strengthen the pendulum swing away from social leftism that got Trump elected.

MF
—————

Oprah 2020? That’d get every black male in the US of A racing to vote Trump, F150 or not!

Oprah vs Trump… Man, would that be the sh!tshow of the freaking century? lol!

#80 Tony on 01.08.18 at 9:37 pm

Re: #60 BG on 01.08.18 at 8:15 pm

When the yield curve in America is within 2 one-hundredths of a point of completely flattening buy up gold bars and gold coins.

#81 Cto on 01.08.18 at 9:38 pm

I’m betting Poloz will wimp out and pass on a rate increase. His style is only to lower, that’s all he knows! Raising is a very uncomfortable thing to do, people will be upset! His boss will be upset!

#82 Deplorable Dude on 01.08.18 at 9:39 pm

Yes…2018 is going to be an amazing year for us Deplorables.

Remember these names.

NSA Director Mike Rogers……discovered something so insidious concerning surveillance, he broke the chain of command and bypassed his bosses to goto straight to President Elect Trump. Next day Trump moved his operations out of Trump Tower.

Devin Nunes…..chair of House Intelligence committee..what he found out about certain surveillance was so shocking….he looked genuinely scared when talking about it on a TV interview. He’s now on the war path.

These 2 will go down in history as true patriots for saving the US Republic.

Various congressional commitees are closing in on the biggest scandel in American History…the weaponisation of the FBI and the Dept of Defence against an incoming President…..while the media keeps being distracted by shiny things…

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/01/05/operation-condor-how-nsa-director-mike-rogers-saved-the-u-s-from-a-massive-constitutional-crisis/

#83 InvestorsFriend on 01.08.18 at 9:39 pm

The Problem With Mutual Funds is?

Imagine a mutual fund with an MER of 2.25%.

Let’s say 0.75% goes to the foot soldier mutual fund rep who deals directly with the client and encouraged the client to make those monthly contributions and who fields any calls from the client.

Let’s say 0.25% is kept by a big bank or other financial corporation that the mutual fund guy works for.

Let’s say 1.25% goes to the portfolio manager who’s job it is to pick stocks and beat the market (something that we know the average fund manager cannot do, although the best ones may be able to) and to cover massive marketing costs to convince mutual fund guys and clients to favor this particular mutual fund.

Some (Loaded) Questions:

Is the above not fairly typical?

Which of the three above is the real problem in pushing the MER up to 2.25%? Who, if any of the three, is unlikely to be adding real value? Is it the mutual fund guy who should have his fees clipped?

How much return would the client make on money never ever invested because there was no mutual fund salesperson including the Nice Lady at the bank convincing them to do so?

What if the mutual fund foot soldier had access (and the licence) to ETFs with total MERs of 1.0% and paying 0.75% trailer fees? How different would that be from a fee-based adviser?

Problem solved? You’re Welcome!

A current balanced ETF portfolio has a total embedded fee of about 0.2%, not 1.0%. – Garth

#84 Alright, I'll bite... on 01.08.18 at 9:44 pm

#13 rental property math on 01.08.18 at 6:19 pm
/*
I have a new pick with a lot of rumors floating around. Just waiting for the news to come out.
*/

Just guessing – is it a Cannimed takeover by Aurora?

#85 Lee on 01.08.18 at 9:46 pm

BG,

This is not directly on point, but I think everyone likes to pick some equities to make themselves feel like their skill in picking winners was part of their success when their core products are etfs. Otherwise, investing can get boring. One way around this is to keep 15% of your portfolio in your own hands and buy small positions in as many equities as you can investing no less than about $1500 in each equity. After you realize how slowly good quality stocks move, the nostalgia will wear off and you won’t care about picking equities anymore. Until you try something like this you’ll always wonder how good you can do going it alone.

#86 Tony on 01.08.18 at 9:51 pm

Re: #42 Nah on 01.08.18 at 7:45 pm

Weed stocks look like stemcell stocks to me. Probably the best short sales in decades. All you’re seeing right now is buy on the rumour then you’ll see sell on the news, then most marijuana companies will go out of business. The ones that don’t their share price will go nowhere.

#87 Gulf Breeze on 01.08.18 at 9:58 pm

AB Boxter,

SCM obviously gets under your skin so he IS obviously contributing something — possibly a reality check?

His comments on Trump war mongering are accurate. Why do you think they are all hot to dismantle Obamacare? Because it is an inefficient giveaway to corporate insurers and big pharma??? He** no. They want to redirect that money towards the war machine.

When I say ‘they’ I mean the psychopaths who manipulate him. He is too far gone to be responsible for his sorry self at this point.

Just shows what a diet of cheese burgers, Kentucky fried and Fox News does to a person over time. Fat stupid #%{*^#!

#88 Danny on 01.08.18 at 9:58 pm

Can’t deny the numbers you are sharing.

But figuring out why is always very complicated.

Aren’t the Republicans as a party to take any credit for this surge in the stock market? It seems to me that investors are probably putting more faith in stability because of the Party as they had in past Republican times.

Are these not just Republican policies, no matter who was at the head ?

How does one explain that the American economy and stock market actually started to turn around under Obama instead of falling even further like it did in other countries?

I don’t see Trump as a great help but rather more as an albatross around the throat of the Republican Party.

Surely Trump is not stable….so obvious.

#89 Al on 01.08.18 at 9:59 pm

With everyone calling for a great year due to fundamentals I’m calling the opposite, this is exactly when it happens, when we least expect it. If I’m wrong I also win (money)!

#90 AK on 01.08.18 at 10:11 pm

#51 TheDood on 01.08.18 at 8:02 pm
AK on 01.08.18 at 6:42 pm
“yes, Oprah2020”
=====================================
She does not have the personality to be a politician. But, we will see what happens.
+=================================
Yeah, but she’s got the cash and the credit to buy Washington 10 times over – including Trump! If she decides to run, she wins!
—————————————————————-
Don’t be so sure.

Everybody thought that Hillary Clinton was going to win as well.

We all know how that turned out.

#91 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 10:13 pm

#68 Ronaldo on 01.08.18 at 8:28 pm
#29 MF

Trump supporters are also generally against foreign conflict. If anyone has read “the art of the deal” his plan is diplomacy.

MF
—————————————————————
Yes, and I am willing to bet that we will see Mr. Trump and the Rocket Man at the negotiating table sooner than we think. I doubt that either one of them is willing to commit suicide.
—————

If that dingbat in nk wants to launch his crap pile nukes against the USA, all that would happen is they would either be shot down over the Pacific, or they’d splash down on their own.

Meanwhile, the US is perfectly capable of dropping 50 ICBM’S directly into Kim’s living room, and nk has no defence against them.

#92 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.08.18 at 10:14 pm

I don’t understand, is everyone off rebalancing and dollar-cost averaging? Is that considered passé now? These are surefire ways to smooth the ups and downs.

#93 millmech on 01.08.18 at 10:16 pm

#38 this is living the dream,
5810 Hartnell Road,, Vernon, British Columbia, V1B 3J5
MLS® # 10135164

#94 Lost...but not leased on 01.08.18 at 10:17 pm

Oprah ???

***SIGH***

Regardless ,I do have some residual faith(+/- GST) there are enough posters that are aware of “Chicago rooted incubii” that have been foisted onto the general public…ie Oprah…Obama..Donahue…Emmanuel…..

JFK victory was dependent on Chicago “honest elections” lol

Duly note Chicago also has some of the strictest gun laws and concurrently one of the highest murder rates.

University of Chicago founding was funded by J.D. Rockefeller(WARNING)…maybe check out how many of your olde Profs have roots there.

#95 InvestorsFriend on 01.08.18 at 10:18 pm

Solving the Mutual Fund high MER problem

See number 86 where Garth responded to me:

A current balanced ETF portfolio has a total embedded fee of about 0.2%, not 1.0%. – Garth

******************************************
Thank you. That is excellent and such low fees are part of the solution. Now could the industry please provide these same ETFs in an advisor-class category (total MER about 1.0%) that would pay the Nice Lady at the Bank or all those mutual fund guys a standard 0.75% trailer so they could sell that nice efficient ETF package which is not trying to beat the market instead of having to sell high fee mutual funds that are paying for managers to try to beat each other and paying for marketing fees?

The system I describe would require the mutual fund sales people to be allowed to sell ETFs (even if they can’t normally sell individual stocks).

Basically it would get rid of 2.25% MERs while allowing financial planners to sell efficient balanced products and still get their (say) 0.75% trailer fees. Who loses in this deal? (Not the client?)

#96 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 10:20 pm

Jeff Bezos Is Now Worth More Than Bill Gates Ever Was
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-08/bezos-s-net-worth-tops-105-billion-as-amazon-climbs-in-new-year

https://imgur.com/kHq0YqM

#97 2021 on 01.08.18 at 10:23 pm

It’s 2021.

President Oprah Winfrey, PM Justin Trudeau, and Premiers Notley, Wynne and 8 more NDP/Lib Premiers meet together to draft new North American trade and social justice agreements. Minimum wages soar, and the 1% finally starts to be taxed fairly. A Great Society is born, at last.

HUGE changes ahead, folks.

(Just heard a CNN panel with David Gergen praising Oprah and T2 for his gender balanced cabinet. The way of the future is very clear to them!)

#98 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 10:25 pm

#77 T on 01.08.18 at 9:03 pm

Buddy all you do is see “cbc” and get triggered. It’s got nothing to do with the CBC. I’m a fan of Nick Hanauer and he’s absolutely right.

https://imgur.com/3LvhmTA

#99 Mark on 01.08.18 at 10:26 pm

“The Problem With Mutual Funds is?”

The other problem you don’t address is that of tax efficiency. Broadly diversified ETFs don’t do much, if hardly any trading, so owning one can defer capital gains quite significantly into the future.

But if one owns a mutual fund that is actively traded (as many of them are), not only is the possibility of achieving incremental alpha over an indexing strategy rather minimal, but the yearly tax bill will also take a significant additional chunk out of the return.

Deferring capital gains taxes is a very powerful thing over time. My personal calculations indicate that over 30-40 year holding periods, deferring capital gains can effectively cut annualized tax rates in half. So not only does one need to be a successful active trader to add incremental value over buying an index ETF, but they need to beat the index by a significant margin to break even. Not a viable strategy for most, IMHO, hence I will defend and agree with Garth on the topic of avoiding investment in individual shares nearly every time the topic comes up.

#100 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 10:40 pm

#41 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 7:45 pm

Do you really think it’s going to trickle down?

———-

Right. Because my boss always gives me a big pay raise when his taxes go up and profit margins take a crap.

Unbelievable…

#101 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 10:49 pm

#105 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 10:40 pm

Your boss gives himself a pay raise when he ships your job overseas.

#102 conan on 01.08.18 at 11:03 pm

#104 Mark on 01.08.18 at 10:26 pm

Yes, ETF’s look great, the cats ass, but the last 10 years have been artificial markets. Most of the funds I deal with have high tax efficiency, and they seem to be beating ETF’s most of the time.

Problem with the ETF is that it would buy a Nortel, and never sell it until it was removed from the index. At one point Nortel represented almost 40 % of the TSX .

We are literally one or two black swan events from no one wanting anything to do with ETF’s. Right now they look good, but it is not going to stay that way for ever.

#103 Ronaldo on 01.08.18 at 11:04 pm

#105 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 10:40 pm

#41 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 7:45 pm

Do you really think it’s going to trickle down?

———-

Right. Because my boss always gives me a big pay raise when his taxes go up and profit margins take a crap.

Unbelievable…
—————————————————————-
He/she/it is just playing with your head. Best to ignore.

#104 Andrew Woburn on 01.08.18 at 11:05 pm

#123 DON on 01.07.18 at 9:24 pm
One of the main reasons Victoria is having trouble attracting workers is cause no one can afford the rent on what employers are willing to pay. Victoria has always been a place that attracted the Island’s youth. There is more beneath the news headlines.

Victoria appears trendy and quaint but it is quiet. The rush hour is horrible for island standards due to water ways and bridges…On a good day it takes people traveling from downtown to Langford, BC (traveling north up island) at least minutes to go 16km (it is way faster to. That’s where the affordable houses are. Drove past a new subdivision today with empty houses, like 20 – 40 of them.

The city is choked up with traffic and try finding parking. City planners didn’t think about the increase in traffic.
===================

I agree that Victoria has horrible RE prices and rush hour traffic – just nowhere near as bad as Vancouver. With any luck, the highway improvements now under way will reduce the dreaded Colwood Crawl. Even so the holdup doesn’t usually add more than about 20 minutes to the trip to Langford. That would seem like heaven to someone commuting from Abbotsford to Vancouver. Also there are plenty of condos going up downtown which is a major reason for the current shortage of downtown street level parking lots.

Whether Victoria is quiet for nightlife is a matter of opinion. I lived there in the 80’s. Now that was quiet. Vancouver has more high end entertainment to be sure but many home-owning YVR millennials can’t afford furniture much less entertainment. Victoria has lots of affordable live music, probably nearly as much as Vancouver.

It is probably true most Island youth can’t afford to move there and, just like in Vancouver, busboys are hard to find. However the other labour shortage is being experienced by the many high tech businesses now operating there who do pay reasonable wages.

As you point out, Victoria is experiencing unprecedented congestion problems but there are feasible solutions. For Vancouver, not so much.

#105 Trocxi on 01.08.18 at 11:11 pm

SCM
Unemployment at a 40 year low in Canada thanks to The Great Trudeau, Blessings Be Upon Him. Yet conservatives still aren’t happy. Thank god we have sound Liberal economic and fiscal prudence back at the helm after 10 years of the never ending Harper Recession.
——————————-
This SCM character is delusional.

#106 Ardy on 01.08.18 at 11:11 pm

Garth, novice question you or the blog dogs can hopefully answer – when referencing performance of a balanced approach vs other conservative/aggressive approaches, is the performance results for an invested amount at the start of the period over said period, or is it for an initial investment plus regular (weekly/monthly/quarterly/yearly) investments?

The motive for my question is that I’m in my accumulation phase for the next 20 years and with virtually no debt, risk and volatility are not a concern, and growth is preferred over stability. I’ll have about 15 years after that to adjust portfolio for risk, hoping the 10+ year period will smooth out any corrections sustained towards the end of my accumulation phase.

Thanks,

RD

#107 Ronaldo on 01.08.18 at 11:13 pm

#104 Mark

Re: Mutual Funds – check this out. This is what I purchase.

http://cawidgets.morningstar.ca/ArticleTemplate/ArticleGL.aspx?culture=en-CA&id=779949

#108 Smoking Man on 01.08.18 at 11:26 pm

Just for you SCM

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-08/youll-never-believe-how-these-restaurant-owners-responded-their-21-minimum-wage

#109 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 11:30 pm

Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 7:45 pm
Hey Smokey, is this what you had in mind?

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway could get a $37 billion windfall from tax cuts
http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-tax-cut-windfall-2018-1

Did Warren Buffett really need another tax cut? Do you really think it’s going to trickle down?

You got played son.

———

With each post, you merely confirm your cluelessness. Did you even read the article? It says IF BRK sells the shares THEN they will save money due to the tax reform. What you do not know is that Buffett’s favourite holding period is forever.

The money isn’t all going to him, even if he does sell. It’s going to, gasp, the evil shareholders.

You should start reading. And I’m not talking the leftist nonsense but rather actual books.

#110 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 11:32 pm

Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 7:58 pm
#27 conan on 01.08.18 at 6:50 pm
Great pic. I forgot about that one. It’s a classic. Is that Garth at the top of the money pile? Just kidding Garth don’t kill me!

Here’s another one. https://imgur.com/vTDo53D

———–

LOL… funny picture. I’m also not surprised one bit that this is how you think the world actually works. Hint: it does not.

#111 T on 01.08.18 at 11:38 pm

#103 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 10:25 pm
#77 T on 01.08.18 at 9:03 pm

Buddy all you do is see “cbc” and get triggered. It’s got nothing to do with the CBC. I’m a fan of Nick Hanauer and he’s absolutely right.

————-

Not even. I get triggered when people try to pass opinion as fact. Facts are based on data. Your opinions are rarely based on reliable data and is very biased. You often reference opinion pieces as fact, which is amusing.

#112 Ronaldo on 01.08.18 at 11:39 pm

#102 rental property math on 01.08.18 at 10:24 pm

#52 Ronaldo on 01.08.18 at 8:02 pm

I also like going on hikes. Although mine are pretty flat but 7k. I would do it daily if the temperature was in the 20s. Such a bonus that it’s free. Simple life. What do you do or where do you go in the winter?
—————————————————————
Pretty much stay on the Island in winter as hiking is year round here. We hike once or twice a week in the nearbly hills between Victoria and Port Alberni weather permitting. Also snowshoe and ski at Mt. Washington. Started hiking 10 years ago and it really gets into your blood. I retired to Vernon in 2000 but mostly skiing until was introduced to hiking in 2008 and hiked in Monashees. In summer we generally go to one of the National Parks for a couple weeks. Have hiked in Jasper, Banff, Waterton, Glacier, Mt. Baker, Wells Gray, Cathedral Lakes and last summer did a 3 week self guided hike in Western Ireland covering around 200 miles. Year before 3 weeks in Switzerland. Planning a 3 week hike in Scotland for this year. And yes, it is very inexpensive if you don’t mind roughing it. Plan to do this into my 80’s the good lord willing.

#113 T on 01.08.18 at 11:46 pm

#106 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 10:49 pm
#105 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 10:40 pm

Your boss gives himself a pay raise when he ships your job overseas.

—————

Is this how you become a screwed Canadian millenial? It’s all starting to makes sense. The bitterness, the racism, the hate, the intense tunnel vision.

#114 Triplenet on 01.09.18 at 12:23 am

#87 gfd – yesterday
Your comments on Costa Rica – were applicable in 1960 perhaps.

#115 macroman on 01.09.18 at 12:32 am

You a teenager in 88?

Was that in dog years?

#116 Widening Gyre on 01.09.18 at 12:47 am

I entirely disagree with the anti Oprah sentiment.

Oprah is a woman of substance. She has come from absolutely nothing and in spite of the barriers put in her way, has achieved a level of success that few can even dream of. If people want a business person running the US they need look no further than Oprah.

If Oprah wants to be the POTUS, then I wouldn’t bet one red cent that she won’t be.

As for African American men running into the arms of Trump, I doubt it. Oprah is a staunch supporter of African American men and what they can accomplish when given the resources

https://www.morehouse.edu/oprah/

#117 Mike in Toronto on 01.09.18 at 1:23 am

Hey Garth,

Any advice for us who have been frozen out of the housing market most of our adult lives, and now find outselves considering buying with big portolios with heavy RRSPs, TFSAs, RESPs and DCPPs?

The tax system and real estate perks seem to be designed for boomers who bought in their 20’s decades ago, or gifted downpayments to their penniless kids. It’s certainly not for late GenXers who are sandwiched between elderly parents, ridiculous childcare costs, and are looking for ways to apply decades of savings to a mortgage.

#118 M on 01.09.18 at 1:27 am

Still a truncation..

Debt unwinding will bring the market down more than 80%. Put this in you memorable quotes.

Once down, will remain down for a very long time (decades) while stagflation sets in. Put this in your memorable quotes also.

It already started.

A patch will come when they’ll go for a different monetary system in which the plebes will be totally cleaned out.

I liked your optimistic article :)

…also..your trust in the “main stream” makes my heart mellow for a second or so…

however.. the final us gdp growth will come up at 2.6 or so after being revised down.

labour force participation is in the basement
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

wage increase is minuscule
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf

… so yeah…is all a mirage.

When commies fell in the 90s..gringo land went there took all the best Pravda had (back then…for now Pravda is an excellent source) and set it up nice, electronic 60channels gringo style.
Results are staggering: trust in the “official” numbers is a tearful innocent. Then comes the pa-da-boom…and most morons say..”nobody saw it coming”.

So..boyz and gals…reality check:
a)
If S&P dividend rate (P/E ratio) less than 2Yr Treasury bond yield, then, big mamma stock market SLOWS DOWN.
1.75% ia less than 1.96% so hold to your panties.

b)
Fed Rate (1.5) bigger than 5yr Bond Yield (2.29)
RECESSION !!!!
..this is not here yet. But inflation IS.
So those suckers down south got the creeps…
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/business/economy/fed-rate-increases.html

…so despite of what you believe Gartho baby… those morons down south will try to delay any fed rate rise as much as they think possible… but mr market is a tough baby.. 5yr will get bought big time lowering the yield.
this is 6mo to 1 yr away. Assuming that everything else remains perfect.

…the yellow unloved :)

#119 Smoking Man on 01.09.18 at 1:46 am

Differences between Libtards and Conservatives.

Libtards are only brave in packs, to frightened to be loners looking for truth at the bottom of empty bottles by themselves. The stigma of no pals to horrifying. Cowards is all I’m saying.

Trumps weekend tweet, “I’m like really really smart”

That was trigger to unleash the MSM to attack, and every time they do that, good people like Trump more.

He gets Herdonomics.

Libtards will never break ranks, You can show gay sex videos to little kids in school, they won’t say shit. Party line and acceptance by fellow metal cases is all that matters.

Conservatives, we are individuals, who give no fk what the pack thinks.

Bannon vs Trump.

That’s freedom.

Kids, don’t forget to bring an apple to class tomorrow.

Dr. Smoking Man
Ph.D. Herdonomics

Opara doesn’t stand a chance unless MSM turns on her and gives her credibility.

Building 7 bitches. Everybody knows were MSM took that one.

#120 down_boy on 01.09.18 at 3:17 am

#92 Al on 01.08.18 at 9:59 pm
With everyone calling for a great year due to fundamentals I’m calling the opposite, this is exactly when it happens, when we least expect it. If I’m wrong I also win (money)!

….

Same. The US historical unemployment rate graph shows that change comes like a thief in the night. It’s dusk now.

#121 NoName on 01.09.18 at 4:16 am

China is kicking out bitcon miners, and now Microsoft is cancelling bitcon payments.

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/cryptocurrency/microsoft-halts-bitcoin-transactions-because-its-an-unstable-currency/

#122 Howard on 01.09.18 at 4:42 am

This euphoria for equities is…everywhere.

———————————-

If true isn’t that THE sign of a market top?

Not that I’d dare short this thing.

#123 Howard on 01.09.18 at 5:01 am

#32 TheDood on 01.08.18 at 7:02 pm

Canadian income levels are lagging WAY WAY WAY behind Americans.

———————————-

But Canadian wages in the dark ages are a bragging point, remember?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/amazon-headquarters-clark-gta-1.4360079

Setting up its second headquarters in the Greater Toronto Area would save Amazon $1.5 billion a year, the man heading up Ontario’s bid for the project said Wednesday, as the deadline loomed for cities in North America to make their pitch.

Ed Clark, a business adviser to Premier Kathleen Wynne, said the region offers highly trained talent at a savings when compared to most U.S. jurisdictions — a software programmer in Ontario costs 34 to 38 per cent less than in Boston or New York — and corporate taxes in the province are lower than south of the border.

“What is Ontario’s core advantage?” Clark said. “Great talent at a very competitive cost. That’s an edge the government is determined not only to maintain but to sharpen.”

#124 Howard on 01.09.18 at 5:04 am

#45 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.08.18 at 7:49 pm

Unemployment at a 40 year low in Canada thanks to The Great Trudeau, Blessings Be Upon Him. Yet conservatives still aren’t happy. Thank god we have sound Liberal economic and fiscal prudence back at the helm after 10 years of the never ending Harper Recession.

———————————————

I know you’re just trolling here, but wouldn’t that mean that Trump should take legitimate credit for the booming US economy?

#125 Kreditanstalt on 01.09.18 at 6:23 am

We stopped clocks are only right twice a day. But we are SPECTACULARLY so.

This “market”? Pigs don’t have wings…

#126 Millennial Realist on 01.09.18 at 7:36 am

Looks like a reality check is coming for those who think that ordinary workers should have their benefits clawed back.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3952699/no-timmys-tuesday-support-grows-for-boycott-of-popular-coffee-chain/

But then again, the Harper family agrees with all this, so what could possibly be wrong……?

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/08/in-a-twist-over-ben-harpers-tweets-remember-that-universitys-a-place-for-thought-experiment.html

Boycotting all Tim’s owners & employees because of the actions of one franchisee shows the bottomless stupidity of the media and the consumers who believe it. – Garth

#127 Rooster on 01.09.18 at 7:48 am

If Trump survives 6 more months even his alleged daughter will be shocked. Gerta, you know firsthand the difference between a caucus and a cactus*. When the wind of change blows into the Ozarks they’ll dump Trump’s bloated carcass into the Bay of Pigs; even the Cubans will revolt.

That’s the clarity I get from two cups of Kona Gold®.
Tastes Great! No diluted™ CAMPBELLS calorie-reduced (–can you make that smaller) COFFEE in this man’s Gaggia Brera ©

* A cactus has its pricks on the outside

#128 IHCTD9 on 01.09.18 at 8:00 am

#121 Widening Gyre on 01.09.18 at 12:47 am

As for African American men running into the arms of Trump, I doubt it. Oprah is a staunch supporter of African American men and what they can accomplish when given the resources
____________________________________________

Oprah may be a “supporter” of Black Men, the problem is, Black Men are not supporters of Women like Oprah, ie Black Women.

Any study on dating dynamics where race is considered shows Black Women showing a strong preference for Black Men over all others, same as ever. Black Men however, now consistently choose ANY race other than Black Women. Oprah herself has delved into this very subject.

There are reasons for this, very good ones. Oprah is a living, walking concentration of a lot of said reasons.

The fact is, Black Men AREN’T given the resources. Those are reserved for Black Women only.

IMHO, Black Men in the USA currently have a severe distaste for Black Women, and there would be no further consideration for Oprah other than that.

Don’t shoot the messenger.

#129 Gravy Train on 01.09.18 at 8:28 am

#22 MF on 01.08.18 at 6:36 pm
“It took my newly created balanced portfolio over a year to fully recover after falling about 15%. Scared me enough to develop an aversion to investing that I still have.”

Your comments are simply baffling! Did you sell all your stocks? Are you not a youngster with potentially 30 or 40 years of investing ahead of you?

The only time you should be concerned about corrections in the stock market is when you’re selling your stocks—presumably when you’re retired and in the later stages of your life. In the early stages, you should be buying stocks—preferably a low-cost index fund.

You shouldn’t be chasing after price action; instead, you should be focusing on dividend yield (which you maximize by buying stocks at low prices). You should have seen that 15% pullback as a perfect opportunity to buy more stock by dollar-cost averaging or value averaging into the stock market every payday.

I recommend that you read either William J. Bernstein’s The Four Pillars of Investing or Jeremy Siegel’s Stocks for the Long Run.

If all of this information is simply too much for your limited intellect, then I’ll leave you with just four words: Buy low, sell high! :)

#130 dharma bum on 01.09.18 at 8:29 am

Have you dogs been paying attention to Garth?

Prove it by taking this quiz:

https://www.balancepro.net/BalanceTrack/quiz1/quiz.aspx

#131 earlybird on 01.09.18 at 8:45 am

I thought the PR people for Tim’s/Restaurant Brand would up the price of coffee a bit, and spin it as we pay a living wage, and maybe create some new customers.

The price bump would be immaterial for most people, unless they think that people can’t afford an increase price?

This is not a minimum wage hike, its a catch up. We have to much labour, not enough jobs, and people now use these types of jobs to get by. It used to be for kids, and entry level. At 15$, you can at least attempt a higher education.
Alberta has some Tim’s paying 20$ hourly at one point, and they did just fine. The money will trickle back up, so the greedy will have it back in no time.
These monster mega corps. box stores killed small business…not wages.

#132 Wrk.dover on 01.09.18 at 8:46 am

If a worker performs a job description requirement while filling an unexpendable position, for wages below the poverty line, then that worker is subsidising the income of the employer/shareholder.

Not the opposite.

#133 Classical Liberal on 01.09.18 at 8:53 am

#45 SCM

Unemployment at a 40 year low in Canada thanks to The Great Trudeau, Blessings Be Upon Him. Yet conservatives still aren’t happy. Thank god we have sound Liberal economic and fiscal prudence back at the helm after 10 years of the never ending Harper Recession.

You’re not the brightest bulb, are you.

#134 Headhunter on 01.09.18 at 9:15 am

Oprah will never be President.. too much dirt on her with the other hollywood pervs and pedos. Its gone viral all over the net

#135 Where's The Money Guido? on 01.09.18 at 9:16 am

Re: #90 Gulf Breeze on 01.08.18 at 9:58 pm
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Maybe you should read this……

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/01/05/operation-condor-how-nsa-director-mike-rogers-saved-the-u-s-from-a-massive-constitutional-crisis/

It’s not Trump you should be angry with…….

#136 Stan Brooks on 01.09.18 at 9:21 am

Surprise, Surprise.

$500M recouped worldwide from tax cheats due to Panama Papers — but none of it in Canada

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/500m-recouped-worldwide-tax-cheats-100000638.html

Our rich finance minister an PM are busy allocating billions to CRA to harass small business with no returns and busy introducing laws that will screw doctors and plumbers.

No wonder they have no time to register their french villas, blind trusts, prosecute offshore tax cheats or increase taxes on stock options for their ultra rich friends, they are so busy vacationing on billionaire private islands and yachts, introducing laws that benefit their companies and think about the Canadian middle class!

But hey, pot legalization is coming!
As minimum wage increases
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/companies-weigh-price-hikes-offset-205219050.html

we the serfs should be happy.

Look at the impact from their legislation, they just introduced the carbon tax and killed global warming.

I am surprised our politicians have not claimed that yuge achievement/win over the forces of nature yet.

#137 IHCTD9 on 01.09.18 at 9:22 am

#136 earlybird on 01.09.18 at 8:45 am
I thought the PR people for Tim’s/Restaurant Brand would up the price of coffee a bit, and spin it as we pay a living wage, and maybe create some new customers.

The price bump would be immaterial for most people, unless they think that people can’t afford an increase price?
_______________________________

I think TH franchises are heading for rough waters. An extra large is 2.19, and the coffee is of the lowest quality ever since the new ownership has arrived. They try to upsell you every single time you show up. The cookies are crap compared to a few years ago. The store owners are suing the new owners over some issue.

Timmies used to sell good stuff for a decent price, now it’s crap, harassment, and high prices. I would not doubt fear exists among the store owners.

#138 Where's The Money Guido? on 01.09.18 at 9:23 am

Oh yeah, thanks to #85 Deplorable Dude on 01.08.18 at 9:39 pm for the link!!!!

Re: #90 Gulf Breeze on 01.08.18 at 9:58 pm
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Maybe you should read this……

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/01/05/operation-condor-how-nsa-director-mike-rogers-saved-the-u-s-from-a-massive-constitutional-crisis/

It’s not Trump you should be angry with…….

#139 Cletus on 01.09.18 at 9:24 am

#124 Smoking Man on 01.09.18 at 1:46 am
Differences between Libtards and Conservatives
********

Smokey,
ya caint right so hoo filled out yer green card?
What kinda work you got down there in SoCal?
Soakin up the Sun to save us from the global warning?

#140 Stan Brooks on 01.09.18 at 9:27 am

#138 Classical Liberal on 01.09.18 at 8:53 am
#45 SCM

Unemployment at a 40 year low in Canada thanks to The Great Trudeau, Blessings Be Upon Him. Yet conservatives still aren’t happy. Thank god we have sound Liberal economic and fiscal prudence back at the helm after 10 years of the never ending Harper Recession.

You’re not the brightest bulb, are you.

——————————

This is either wild bill, T2 or some paid troll, they probably have budget for that, look at the hundred of millions from our tax money they showered CBC with in order to buy them.

#141 IHCTD9 on 01.09.18 at 9:33 am

#131 Millennial Realist on 01.09.18 at 7:36 am
Looks like a reality check is coming for those who think that ordinary workers should have their benefits clawed back.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3952699/no-timmys-tuesday-support-grows-for-boycott-of-popular-coffee-chain/
________________________________________

Is Canada full of idiots?

Yep.

#142 Bhad Bhabie on 01.09.18 at 9:34 am

#133 IHCTD9 on 01.09.18 at 8:00 am
Don’t shoot the messenger.
•……….†

once barack
never back

you small

minded

#143 Ben Mulroony on 01.09.18 at 9:46 am

Why not just make the minimum wage $100,000 (cash). Then everyone could be rich. All problems solved. Hmmmmmmmmmm…..

#144 Tfsa on 01.09.18 at 10:05 am

Bought $8.75

Sold today $43.35

Feel like a champion …unless it goes to $70 .

#145 Senta on 01.09.18 at 10:15 am

Bring out the Bubbly.
Acceleration of stock market prices are a classic sign of a bubble forming, as John Q. Public rushes in to invest. 2018 will be a great year as the bubble gets bigger and bigger, followed by 2019 – a slow leak (a classic bull trap, when the late comers dive in to “buy the dip”) and a final reckoning over 2020 – 2022.

Markets rise base on economic expansion and corporate profitability. There is reason to believe both will continue. Markets do not decline just because they get old, like us. – Garth

#146 Senta on 01.09.18 at 10:18 am

I would add that all generalized bubbles were under a Republican president – Hoover in the late 20’s, Nixon in the late 60’s, Bush in mid 00. (except the tech bubble under clinton- which was a special case).

#147 Senta on 01.09.18 at 10:21 am

Agree – and the bubble has a way to run. 2018 should be another 20% year. However the worm has to turn one day. We can argue about, when, not if.

#148 earlybird on 01.09.18 at 10:45 am

#142 IHCTD9
Wholeheartedly agreed. I stopped going awhile ago, not much that I would classify as “food”. It really has gone downhill, seems around the time Restaurant Brands took over. To bad, the coffee used to be decent.

#149 Howard on 01.09.18 at 11:01 am

#148 Ben Mulroony on 01.09.18 at 9:46 am

Why not just make the minimum wage $100,000 (cash). Then everyone could be rich. All problems solved. Hmmmmmmmmmm…..

————————————–

In fairness to the Harper fils, he’s very young and young people often make silly statements.

Can you imagine the kinds of tweets we’d be reading if Twitter had been around when Trudeau was 19? He’s dumb as rocks NOW, in his 40s.

#150 LivinLarge on 01.09.18 at 11:04 am

“Solving the Mutual Fund high MER problem

See number 86 where Garth responded to me:”…wow, this is at least the second time in a week you where you have felt compelled to state “Garth responded to me” rather than just use quotes like everyone else.

You’re either starved for validation in your home life or work OR you’re using this blog to validate or justify your “ideas” to potential investment clients and based on your screen name, I’m going with the latter. Geeze, that’s tacky.

If you’re using Fearless Leader’s blog to further your career then you really should be paying him a promotional fee for the help.

#151 rainclouds on 01.09.18 at 11:38 am

Garth, Nothing about my posts were disrespectful, abusive, or obscene.

A link to a report of a judicial decision that is public record is hardly earth shattering . Yes off topic but so are many

The vast majority of immigrants are exceptional citizens who play by the rules and have contributed much to the mosaic we call Canada These people do not.They are gaming the system.

Lighten up dude. You refuse to acknowledge corruption is part of the RE equation here. It most certainly is.

Time will tell

Thank you for your blog You provide invaluable information.

Regards

There is zero reason that this blog should follow the herd down the rabbit hole of anti-Chinese sentiment. It changes nothing. But it cheapens you and everyone else who rail about systemic unfairness instead of improving your own life. Don’t like it? Tough. Exit. – Garth

#152 LivinLarge on 01.09.18 at 11:40 am

“Timmies used to sell good stuff for a decent price, now it’s crap, harassment, and high prices.”…not so sure it was efer “good stuff” but their baked goods have shown a continous reduction in flavor and ingredients. Less apple in the fritter and less blueberry in the muffin not to mention an almost total lack of nutmeg in the old fashioned. When viable competition moved in they took the easy route and competed exclusively on price. When I was much younger I was taught to never compete exclusively by price…someone will always sell for less to take your market share.

Now, their swill has always been made with robusta beans rather than arabica beans and that cuts their $/ton for beans to less than half of arabica. Once the Yuppie brews hit the street their flavor was sooooo distinctly superior that the higher price per cup was immaterial.

#153 Expat Banker on 01.09.18 at 11:41 am

Hi Garth, love the blog, Yank looking north o’ da wall here. Always like watching what the late adopters are doing. Anywho, looks like you are couple news cycles behind up there. So you don’t get blindsided come midterms, just wanted to flag , the tent has grown bigly. It’s gone from “every bubba with a Glock and an F150” to “every parent with a job”. The changes 529 plans are nothing short of life-changing. Expect every responsible parent to flip (this is how he flipped me).

#154 morrey on 01.09.18 at 11:58 am

Price sprawl: $1-million homes galore in Vancouver region

“Up, Up and Away” is the 5th Dimension of RealEstate

#155 Theo on 01.09.18 at 12:15 pm

Ha Oprah vs. Trump in 2020, Putin couldn’t have dreamed of the return he’s ended up with on his investment. The US government no longer functions.

#156 IHCTD9 on 01.09.18 at 12:37 pm

#157 LivinLarge on 01.09.18 at 11:40 am
“Timmies used to sell good stuff for a decent price, now it’s crap, harassment, and high prices.”…not so sure it was efer “good stuff” but their baked goods have shown a continous reduction in flavor and ingredients. Less apple in the fritter and less blueberry in the muffin not to mention an almost total lack of nutmeg in the old fashioned. When viable competition moved in they took the easy route and competed exclusively on price. When I was much younger I was taught to never compete exclusively by price…someone will always sell for less to take your market share.

Now, their swill has always been made with robusta beans rather than arabica beans and that cuts their $/ton for beans to less than half of arabica. Once the Yuppie brews hit the street their flavor was sooooo distinctly superior that the higher price per cup was immaterial.
_________

Yep, I find most of the huge degradation has come since the sale. The outfit that bought them is hacking costs and cranking prices to max the profit – a short term strategy.

IMHO, Timmies got off the blocks selling coffee that folks wanted to buy again. Now TH is seemingly betting the farm on folks being habitual.

#157 SimplyPut7 on 01.09.18 at 12:39 pm

#121 Widening Gyre on 01.09.18 at 12:47 am

I like Oprah, but another successful business person is not what is needed for any political office in the US or in Canada.

She already said she was not interested in running for office. I think she wants people (Liberals, Democrats and Hollywood) to have hope again, so she is not making it clear that Oprah2020 is not happening; but rather wait for another candidate to make a run for office that she can get behind and support.

While being likable is important for getting votes, dealing with people who do not have to listen to you, when you have been powerful and had “yes” people around you for over 30 years is hard. Just ask Trump or Kevin O’Leary.

Politics is not like being CEO of a private corporation where you can easily fire everyone who does not listen to you. In politics, you can remove some people but not everyone. You have to work hard at getting every administrative assistant to every managing director on the same page to move existing policies forward; on top of creating new complex policies that can have unintended consequences for millions of people, not just several hundred thousands customers or suppliers who love and adore you.

As for African American men running into the arms of Trump. Yes, I have met black people who agree with some of Trump’s views. You may want to see the exit polls of the 2016 presidential race.

https://ichef-.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/ED16/production/_92349606_us_elections_2016_exit_polls_race_624.png

While I agree at some point in time Trump has offended every race, gender, religious belief, country and political party; wealth creation of the lower classes will increase the likelihood that people who are disadvantaged in life (race, gender identity, religious belief or current level of wealth) will become more successful and become the Oprahs’ of the world.

Minimizing barriers to enter an industry and increasing business growth is how you create long-lasting changes in society; and not creating policies to force businesses to increase wages and citizens to accept minorities where businesses/citizens can still marginalize workers/minorities in other ways once new policies come into force. Oprah’s wealth, power and influence comes from her successful businesses not her political affiliations.

#158 Midnights on 01.09.18 at 12:46 pm

Real Estate may become a little more expensive in Van…
http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/property-post/blackstone-buying-pure-industrial-real-estate-trust-for-3-8b-including-debt

#159 Dmitry on 01.09.18 at 12:52 pm

#81 rental property math

That sounds about right.
I’m thinking about selling my rental condo in TO this spring.
Once government gets involved, things all get screwed every time.
Think of all the actions the government did for the last few years to improve things in RE and housing.
Things only got worse. And this is how it works with government as it does changes not for the good of people but rather for optics and vote buying.
Expect same with minimum wage increase.
It was done in such a way that does not benefit people, but makes government look like they think about low wage workers, where as they just trying to buy votes for this year election. One has to have brains to understand these simple things. Unfortunately lot of people like SCM do not have any brains and keep electing governments who buy their votes. Regardless if this is liberals or conservatives. To me they’re all the same. There’s no good or bad government, there’s small or big government. Small is good, big is not.

#160 Lillooet BC on 01.09.18 at 1:11 pm

#149 Tfsa on 01.09.18 at 10:05 am
Bought $8.75

Sold today $43.35

Feel like a champion …unless it goes to $70 .

****************

I guess it is Canopy.
Bought a bunch @ $3 and still hold a majority portion

#161 Lillooet BC on 01.09.18 at 1:12 pm

Garth would never approve this kind of stuff.
but no risk, no profit

#162 Steven Rowlandson on 01.09.18 at 1:28 pm

Speaking of gold has the BOC sold off the last 77 oz of gold coins yet?

#163 jess on 01.09.18 at 1:59 pm

brillant trump presidency?
Trump’s Lies vs. Your Brain

” Trump seems to lie for the pure joy of it. A whopping 70 percent of Trump’s statements that PolitiFact checked during the campaign were false, while only 4 percent were completely true, and 11 percent mostly true.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/donald-trump-lies-liar-effect-brain-214658
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/donald-trump-lies-liar-effect-brain-214658

http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/statements/byruling/false/

#164 Ronaldo on 01.09.18 at 1:59 pm

#154 Howard

Can you imagine the kinds of tweets we’d be reading if Twitter had been around when Trudeau was 19? He’s dumb as rocks NOW, in his 40s.
————————————————————–
Can we expect much more from a drama teacher and a bouncer? Need more than nice hair and a pretty smile to run a country.

#165 Ronaldo on 01.09.18 at 2:00 pm

#167 Steven Rowlandson on 01.09.18 at 1:28 pm

Speaking of gold has the BOC sold off the last 77 oz of gold coins yet?
———————————————————–
Yes. I picked up the last ones this morning.

#166 livinLarge on 01.09.18 at 2:19 pm

IHCTD9 “Now TH is seemingly betting the farm on folks being habitual.” ABSO-FREAKIN-LUTELY!!! That “habitual” TH customer was exactly what pumped their selling price to the new owner. That’s the insanely high “goodwill” or “blue sky” that TH extracted in the sale.

I haven’t had but maybe 1 or 2 TH coffees per year since about 1995 (only when someone else provided it too) when I discovered the joy of espresso and the cost saving by buying an espresso machine. So, I am no coffee expert but I have always found their coffee to be like a brown crayon in hot water.

#167 Howard on 01.09.18 at 2:34 pm

#157 LivinLarge on 01.09.18 at 11:40 am
“Timmies used to sell good stuff for a decent price, now it’s crap, harassment, and high prices.”…not so sure it was efer “good stuff” but their baked goods have shown a continous reduction in flavor and ingredients. Less apple in the fritter and less blueberry in the muffin not to mention an almost total lack of nutmeg in the old fashioned. When viable competition moved in they took the easy route and competed exclusively on price. When I was much younger I was taught to never compete exclusively by price…someone will always sell for less to take your market share.

———————————————-

You actually remember what doughnuts and muffins tasted like 20 years ago? I sure as hell don’t. Then again my doughnut intake runs at about 1 per year. Muffins, maybe 3.

I’m perfectly willing to believe that Timmies’ doughnuts are inferior to times past but….really. It’s a doughnut…

#168 Rational Optimist on 01.09.18 at 2:47 pm

#22 MF on 01.08.18 at 6:36 pm

“-Or 2015.

It took my newly created balanced portfolio over a year to fully recover after falling about 15%. Scared me enough to develop an aversion to investing that I still have…

I always chuckle when I hear the newbies proudly proclaiming that their portfolio is up 20%.”

Don’t take this the wrong way, but you started investing in 2015, but are criticizing “newbies”? Do you consider yourself an old hand after two years of experience?

Your portfolio was not balanced if it took a significant hit in 2015. The declines in the Canadian market were not replicated elsewhere. The U.S. did great. You must have been too heavy into Canada.

You’re right that we’re due for a recession, and a big correction. If you started investing in 2015, presumably you’re young, so you should welcome that.

#169 jess on 01.09.18 at 2:56 pm

How money laundering works in real estate
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/01/04/how-money-laundering-works-in-real-estate/?utm_term=.0d59c88c74b0

#170 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.09.18 at 3:02 pm

Imagine if we had Twitter back when Harper was at the National Citizens Coalition with his pedo pal Tom Flanagan when they were in support of apartheid in South Africa and railing against Nelson Mandela.

You know.. actual racism.

#171 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.09.18 at 3:05 pm

Oops. Northern Foundation. Not NCC.

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2013/12/16/Harper-Mandela/

#172 Angry Mann on 01.09.18 at 3:13 pm

Oprah would likely make a terrible president, but she runs a large business so I may be wrong, Trump kicks ass and is definitely competent, stock markets kick ass, Bitcoin and weed stocks are for idiots, and real estate is scheduled to be doomed but is always late…

#173 LivinLarge on 01.09.18 at 3:14 pm

Howard, “I’m perfectly willing to believe that Timmies’ doughnuts are inferior to times past but….really. It’s a doughnut…”…Touche!! The memory may be long even if the body is frail” much more important shit to worry about, thanks for brining me back to reality.

#174 JRT on 01.09.18 at 3:32 pm

Just transferred some $$$ into my Tax Free Acct. for 2018. Also came across this article. Written by a Canadian who lives in Ontario. Great smack-down on Wynn and Justine “Elliott” Trudeau.

Trump has been in office only one year and he cured “Global Warming”.
https://pjmedia.com/trending/canadas-carbon-taxes-boondoggles-add-pain-record-cold-winter/

#175 re., lillooet BC on 01.09.18 at 3:41 pm

#149 Tfsa on 01.09.18 at 10:05 am
Bought $8.75

Sold today $43.35

Feel like a champion …unless it goes to $70 .

****************

I guess it is Canopy.
Bought a bunch @ $3 and still hold a majority portion

……….

forgot to right it in. Nicely down with your entry point. Am happy with the profit, way beyond my expectations.

gl the rest of the way!!

#176 Oprah not Opara you idiot! on 01.09.18 at 4:14 pm

#124 Smoking Man on 01.09.18 at 1:46 am
Differences between Libtards and Conservatives.
Libtards are only brave in packs, to frightened to be loners looking for truth at the bottom of empty bottles by themselves. The stigma of no pals to horrifying. Cowards is all I’m saying.
Trumps weekend tweet, “I’m like really really smart”
That was trigger to unleash the MSM to attack, and every time they do that, good people like Trump more.
He gets Herdonomics.
Libtards will never break ranks, You can show gay sex videos to little kids in school, they won’t say shit. Party line and acceptance by fellow metal cases is all that matters.
Conservatives, we are individuals, who give no fk what the pack thinks.
Bannon vs Trump.
That’s freedom.
Kids, don’t forget to bring an apple to class tomorrow.
Dr. Smoking Man
Ph.D. Herdonomics
Opara doesn’t stand a chance unless MSM turns on her and gives her credibility.
Building 7 bitches. Everybody knows were MSM took that one.
…………………………………………………………………
Smoking Man cut the crap. Trump a certified lunatic. There is nothing good about Trump, he is out for Donald J Trump only. It is always about Donald J Trump. He will throw anyone including his own family under the bus when push comes to shove. He is a narcissistic paranoid old man. I will admit he got lucky and did get elected but he never thought it would happen. He is way out of his league in running a country. The Republican Party will eventually pay for this mistake. As for sex videos, Donald Trump can his own skeletons in the closet. Please show me how you can defend him supporting the likes of Roy Moore or Joe Arpaio. If you are OK with assaulting women then I guess you and Trump are a good duo. You can be his little bitch!

#177 NoMoreTimmis on 01.09.18 at 4:20 pm

So I am done with Tim Hortons. That isn’t because the minimum wage thing . I decided that I will invest the money instead . I figured $ 2.00 a day equals $730.00 a year and $7300.00 in 10 years (not adding the interest)
So I might take a vacation to a nice place or maybe I would need it for bread and water. We’ll see.

#178 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.09.18 at 4:33 pm

#179 JRT on 01.09.18 at 3:32 pm
Trump has been in office only one year and he cured “Global Warming”.

—————–

Garth don’t you ever give your head a shake when you read these comments? Don’t you think you should speak up and say something?

Boomers have such a hard time differentiating between weather and climate.

Climate change is warping the jet stream which is causing this extreme cold weather polar vortex.

That’s the thing about climate change, we’re not able to predict the extreme weather events it’s going to cause.

Conservatives don’t do well when it comes to climate science, or any science for that matter.

Garth you’re not a climate change denier are you?

#179 LivinLarge on 01.09.18 at 5:04 pm

NoMoreTimmies, “I decided that I will invest the money instead . I figured $ 2.00 a day equals $730.00 a year and $7300.00 in 10 years (not adding the interest)”… do you buy lottery tickets with any regularity???? Cutting that expense early in life and investing the savings can make a rather huge difference in retirement income too.

Lotteries are just a tax on the poor.

#180 aa5 on 01.09.18 at 5:05 pm

Its as close to a sure thing I have seen that the S&P 500 will be up another 15%+ in 2018 too.

Just like housing circa 2003.. what really is going to stop the stock market from going up?

#181 acdel on 01.09.18 at 6:01 pm

#183 Screwed Canadian Millenial

Then how do you explain the same temp variations on Mars and Earth?? You are aware that there are little buggies running around on that planet that measure and record temps each day??

Clean water, clean air, I am all for that, but do not try and scam me with additional taxes that are not going to special interest bank accounts.. Give it a rest!!!

What are we going to do with all the recycles that China is no longer accepting and yet we are paying each month only for it to be dumped into our landfills anyways, you are naive!!

#182 Howard on 01.09.18 at 6:08 pm

#175 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.09.18 at 3:02 pm
Imagine if we had Twitter back when Harper was at the National Citizens Coalition with his pedo pal Tom Flanagan when they were in support of apartheid in South Africa and railing against Nelson Mandela.

You know.. actual racism.

————————————————

Or in the 1940s, when Trudeau’s dad and beloved Liberal was a Nazi-supporting fascist who used to wear homemade Nazi fatigues and ride his bike through Montreal’s Jewish neighbourhood. That’s your Liberal hero.

The Harper accusations are all guesswork and innuendo whereas PET’s Nazi-love is historical fact.

#183 Howard on 01.09.18 at 6:12 pm

#178 LivinLarge on 01.09.18 at 3:14 pm
Howard, “I’m perfectly willing to believe that Timmies’ doughnuts are inferior to times past but….really. It’s a doughnut…”…Touche!! The memory may be long even if the body is frail” much more important shit to worry about, thanks for brining me back to reality.

—————————————

Oh I don’t have a problem with observations that are perhaps not high on a scale of overall importance.

It was just surprising that so many people seem to remember vividly that doughnuts at Timmies tasted so much better in the 1990s. I never paid much attention since it’s only a doughnut. Maybe I just don’t have sensitive taste buds, perhaps that’s why I love spicy food.

#184 Lorne on 01.09.18 at 6:34 pm

DELETED

#185 acdel on 01.09.18 at 6:35 pm

#186 acdel
#183 Screwed Canadian Millenial

Correction; fat fingers; that are going to certain individuals or very biased faculties along with groups that laugh at us suckers. Some of it (only to look like they are doing something) goes to worthwhile projects but the rest is simply being re-directed to whatever pays the bills for the selected ????!

#186 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.09.18 at 6:39 pm

DELETED

#187 LivinLarge on 01.09.18 at 10:17 pm

Howard, “Or in the 1940s, when Trudeau’s dad and beloved Liberal was a Nazi-supporting fascist who used to wear homemade Nazi fatigues and ride his bike through Montreal’s Jewish neighbourhood. That’s your Liberal hero.” the 1940s was welllll before my time and I have no recollection of anything like PET and homemade Nazi fatigues. Care to share your sources on this?

#188 Howard on 01.10.18 at 4:48 am

#192 LivinLarge on 01.09.18 at 10:17 pm

You can start with this : https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/pierre-trudeau-conformist/article1098037/

Doesn’t describe the specific instance of Trudeau riding around a Jewish neighbourhood during WW2 wearing a German army uniform (apparently it was an old Prussian uniform, not Nazi; I erred on that little detail), but it gives you an idea into the mind of the 20-something PET.

#189 LivinLarge on 01.10.18 at 7:24 am

Thanks Howard. It was the specific “Homemade Nazi” fatiques factoid that I was questioning although “homemade Prussian fatigues inspires another question all by itself. You may have a mistaken image of what a Prussian was in WW1. They certainly were no where near genocidal maniacs…more like Harper Conservatives with titles.

Riding a motorcycle around a Jewish neighborhood while wearing a WW1 era Prussian uniform may a fashion faux pas but incomparable to wearing a WW2 era Nazi uniform during the WW2 era. One was a bourgeois bohemian fashion statement and the other a reprehensible political statement.

#190 Howard on 01.10.18 at 10:51 am

#194 LivinLarge on 01.10.18 at 7:24 am

Thanks Howard. It was the specific “Homemade Nazi” fatiques factoid that I was questioning although “homemade Prussian fatigues inspires another question all by itself. You may have a mistaken image of what a Prussian was in WW1. They certainly were no where near genocidal maniacs…more like Harper Conservatives with titles.

Riding a motorcycle around a Jewish neighborhood while wearing a WW1 era Prussian uniform may a fashion faux pas but incomparable to wearing a WW2 era Nazi uniform during the WW2 era. One was a bourgeois bohemian fashion statement and the other a reprehensible political statement.

————————————-

I know all about the Prussian empire. I wasn’t suggesting they were equivalent to Nazis. Quite the opposite; at the time, the Prussians represented Russian Jews’ greatest hope of ridding them of the murderous Czar Nicholas II.

The point was that Trudeau wore a German uniform (albeit from an earlier, non-genocidal period) during WW2 and rode around a Jewish neighbourhood with an attempt to intimidate. That was Mordechai Richler’s interpretation anyway.

And really, we’re talking about a guy (Trudeau) whose sympathies to Stalin, Castro, and others were well-known. Would it be so outlandish to think that he saw some appeal, however brief, in Germany’s national socialist movement?

The original point in all this is that if Liberals want to play this game of digging into Conservatives’ past to find fleeting, tangential links to unsavoury groups, bring it on. No Conservative considers Stephen Harper a saint, but lots of Liberals consider PET to be one.

#191 InvestorsFriend on 01.10.18 at 1:50 pm

I Get Dressed Down

#155 LivinLarge on 01.09.18 at 11:04 am dressed me down yesterday as follows:

“Solving the Mutual Fund high MER problem

See number 86 where Garth responded to me:”…wow, this is at least the second time in a week you where you have felt compelled to state “Garth responded to me” rather than just use quotes like everyone else.

You’re either starved for validation in your home life or work OR you’re using this blog to validate or justify your “ideas” to potential investment clients and based on your screen name, I’m going with the latter. Geeze, that’s tacky.

If you’re using Fearless Leader’s blog to further your career then you really should be paying him a promotional fee for the help.

**************************************
LivinLarge, who may have just been in a nasty mood, said there were only two possible motivations for my posts here.

Actually, I don’t think either hit the mark.

I have been posting here since the very start of this blog always under my actual name, Shawn Allen or my other handle InvestorsFriend.

I do it primarily because I am somewhat addicted to the chance to discuss matters and I think I have a valuable contribution to make in educating people about investing as I have spent a lifetime getting educated about investing myself. I prefer not to be anonymous.

Yes, I have a website and I don’t mind if I get a bit of traffic from here to there. But I have not posted a link to my web site here in years nor do I even mention it except I use my corporate name. I am not sure what level of traffic I ever get. Some to be sure. But without a link probably not very much. It’s not in anyway my main motivation to post here.

I feel like I have contributed to the discussion here/ Many people come here for the comments and to see the debates the regulars have with each other and the often pithy responses from Garth. I don’t pretend for a minute that the blog would suffer from my absense but as a regular I think I do make a contribution.

If Garth would prefer that I not use InvestorsFriend as my name he can let me know.

Getting a bit insulted from time to time is to be expected on a blog like this. But it’s also to be expected that the insulted can defend themselves. That really is part of the allure of this blog for those who comment.