The exodus

Seven years ago Joan and her fresh husband decided not to buy a condo in Vancouver. “We did the math and got the willies thinking about dumping all our savings and salaries into a mortgage, and backed out of the offer.” Since then the same condo’s risen in market value by $190,000, she says. But Joan’s eyes are wide open.

“In that time we’ve managed to save $250K, which is in a nice diversified portfolio being managed by a fee-based advisor. If we had bought we would certainly have all that equity, but we would have missed out on the following:

  • Quitting our lousy jobs and going back to school so we could pursue better career opportunities; our combined income is easily double what we were making then.
  • Several vacations including South Africa, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, London, Mexico, 3 months of backpacking in Southeast Asia and numerous weekends to the USA. Yes, we are spoiled millennials.
  • Having enough savings for me to extend my maternity leave to 18 months without any financial stress.”

The first lesson Joan brings us is about balance. You can succumb to the siren call of real estate, bury your entire net worth in a single asset, swallow indigestible debt and pray values keep rising to bail you out, that you don’t lose a job, don’t get pregnant, don’t renew at a higher rate – or you can rent, save, invest and enjoy a less-stressed life. As a society, we’re obsessed with home ownership. The sacrifices made to own the same condo you can rent for half the cost are legion.

But Joan brings us more. Perspective.

“We’re now at a crossroads… our baby is 7 months old and even if I can find a daycare space for him, it’s going to cost us $2000/month. We are grandfathered into our rent at $1850/month so it’s affordable, but finding more space is in the $3000+ range — I had hoped an empty homes tax would create more availability in the market but I haven’t seen any indication of this.”

“It seems like all we talk about with friends is housing uncertainty — even the ones who did get in early are now stuck where they are, as they cannot possibly upgrade. While I have no expectations of having what my parents did (built their own home in the burbs by age 30, followed by 3 kids and a stay at home mom), it’s become incredibly frustrating watching our careers grow but falling further and further behind. We cannot afford even an average place to rent OR buy, while making well over double the average household income. Our landlord is a sketchy dude who randomly says the owners are thinking of selling at least once a year, not the kind of stress we feel we deserve after 4.5 years of paying rent to these jerks. The psychology of Vancouver is depressing these days.

“So we’re planning to leave. A lot of friends are leaving, too – Victoria, Comox Valley, Penticton, Kelowna… wherever they will not be punished for starting a family and there are job opportunities, including being able to try out starting your own business. AND the added benefit: even if housing is still overpriced, at least you can get into a space large enough to stay forever so you can stop worrying about the market and never deal with housing uncertainty again.

“We’re mid 30’s, so I can only imagine how much more frustrating this situation is for people in their 20’s. This got me thinking: what happens when all the when all the young people leave the Lower Mainland? I remember reading a stat early last year that a few thousand millennials left Metro Van in 2016. I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on the economic impacts of young people picking up and leaving for greener pastures, perhaps in a blog post?”

Census stats show Vancouver lost about 9% of residents between the ages of 35 and 44 in the last decade. This is a combination of stupid housing prices, caused by rampant speculation, and biology, says a UBC prof. The twentysomethings are happy to rent, be flexible and mobile, believes Paul Kershaw, but “then, they start running into their biological clocks.”

Couples delay having kids until they’re in their thirties when the nesting instinct – coupled with our tribal addiction to home ownership – sends them daily, frenzied, to realtor.ca. Then reality hits home. Detached houses have become unaffordable in Van or Toronto, and who wants to raise a family in a one-bedder concrete box overlooking needle park?

The deluge of capital into residential real estate since the credit crisis of 2008-9 has changed the nature of living in many of our largest cities. As financial markets temporarily tanked, politicians panicked. Rates were slashed to historic lows. Absurd housing incentives were created (0% down, 40-year amortizations). Governments encouraged over-borrowing and inflated house values as the easiest path to economic revival. And then the speculation and house lust started. Now we have average homes average people cannot afford.

But not everywhere.

Joan is wise to leave YVR. The city’s quality of life is fading as its citizens become property junkies and its leaders willfully create class warfare over real estate. How do people’s lives expand and enrich when they’re living an endless Groundhog Day of mortgage and maintenance charges, with all of their wealth in one thing at one address, devoid of choices, shackled to a deed?

These days many places offer hip cafes, vibrant entertainment scenes, startup enterprises, plus cultural, learning and arts centres at the same time more jobs are web-based, eliminating the need to cluster in high-rise urban boxes. The average house costs $298,000 in Halifax, $330,000 in Montreal, $325,000 in London, $260,000 in Windsor, $370,000 in Edmonton, $369,000 in Ottawa, $501,000 in the Okanagan or $259,000 in the most beautiful city in North America, Quebec.

Or, you can buy this Van heap for $1,478,000.

Joan knows. Vancouver is pooched. It will take years of housing correction for the city to restore. In the meantime the conflict, despair, anger and finger-pointing will continue between those who won the housing lottery and try to hang on and the disenfranchised who envy and hate. Get out of Dodge. Bring your mittens.

241 comments ↓

#1 Bobby on 01.07.18 at 1:30 pm

The NDP government is going to address the issue of housing affordability in the next budget.

When the NDP get involved, watch out.

#2 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.07.18 at 1:36 pm

Sounds to me like the real answer is getting the hell out of Canada.

Who left the gate open? – Garth

#3 MPAC on 01.07.18 at 1:53 pm

I pay $1800/month for a 4 bedroom townhouse in Toronto (lawrence/Dvp). I got a notice from my landlord saying effective Jan.1 my rent will be reduced by $14. Good times to be a renter!

#4 Mark on 01.07.18 at 1:56 pm

“Big question right now if you happen to be invested in anything involving Canadian financials is how badly exposed are our chartered banks to the ridiculousness that used to be the big three housing markets (Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary). “

Canada’s big banks are positioned effectively against the housing market, owning either low LTV loans against the RE, *or* high LTV loans that fall under full subprime mortgage insurance by the CMHC. If history is any indication, ie: the 1990s, bank equity could do extremely well as the housing market stagnates/declines (as it has in post-2013 era) as spreads expand. The BoC won’t be able to hurt the banks either with higher interest rates as there is really nothing in the pipeline to take up the slack left in the Canadian economy from the receding housing sector.

So I personally don’t see much of a reason to worry overly about the banks. The big risk though for someone who owns a portfolio heavy with bank stocks is political risk (ie: the government may tinker with taxes or even with CMHC subprime mortgage insurance payouts/deductibles), or simply that other sectors of the Canadian stock market dramatically outperform. If the PM miners go up by, say, 5X in the next few years, but your bank stock portfolio only does 10%/year, for example, that would be unfortunate for the person who didn’t diversify and balance their portfolio!

#5 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.07.18 at 2:02 pm

Who left the gate open? – Garth

—————

Lol. You can’t just be rid of me Garth. I’m like the son you never had.

or wanted

#6 Stan Brooks on 01.07.18 at 2:13 pm

#2 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.07.18 at 1:36 pm
Sounds to me like the real answer is getting the hell out of Canada.

———————–

The truest words ever spoken.

The housing super bubble was created intentionally by politicians and bankers as they felt that the population life is too easy and their profits too small.

It was inflated mostly AFTER the US housing crash which shows intentional actions. They were also coordinated with BOC policies, CMHC morally criminal activities and financial leaders incompetence.

I am sorry to break it to you Joan but housing is the least of your problems.

You will spend you life paying off a house, then raising kids and running them through university spending fortunes on your second mortgages, only to find out that they will not be able to find a decent job that can sustain them.

Your retirement will be mission impossible, if you make it that far with the deteriorating health care system, increasing waiting times and the crappy GMO food you will eat.

You will pass nothing except debt to your kids.

And you will keep falling behind despite any career advancements, it is inevitable.

And you will be lucky to have had a job which your children won’t be able to dream of.

Look at the current leaders who run this country and provinces and make your choice wisely.

Put on a spreadsheet calculating what you would like to achieve in life and the financial resources needed for that, then realistically/not emotionally assess the chance of being able to earn these anywhere in Canada.

Then compare to other places, lets say Minneapolis, Texas, Europe, even Asia and make a calculated choice.

Your kids will not forgive you if you don;t do it.

——————————

And GT, I appreciate your patriotism and optimistic view but there are some walls not worth banging you head on.

Cheers.

#7 Zapstrap on 01.07.18 at 2:16 pm

Read an article in the local rag that said the local legion was about to close. Blamed it on the hot housing market and went on to say many of their clientele had cashed in and moved away. All the workers are volunteers and the bartender I think was over 80 years old. Still couldn’t make a go of it. At the last minute an “anonymous donor” stepped in with a gift to keep it going for another year. So many changes out here on the west coast from the consequences of this market.

#8 islander on 01.07.18 at 2:35 pm

Totally with you on this one Garth. Yes folks -there is life after YVR. When my stable YVR rental deal of over 20 years ended, I looked around the lower mainland, didn’t like what I saw and headed over to ‘The Big Island’.
Now happily renting again, great neighbourhood, nice neighbours, – couldn’t be better. Pumping all my money into wood and drywall was never my thing. Life is short – try to experience it to the fullest!

#9 MF on 01.07.18 at 2:38 pm

Garth nailed the dilemma.

Once you reach 30’s and 40’s, the 600 square foot condo is not enough room for a family.

So you look at houses and see everything is in the millions.

So you can either do the soul sucking 2 hour commute, or stay and pay rent that is too high, benefits someone else, and run the risk of being kicked out.

Hence most people just buy. There is a reason why house prices are cheap in gananoque.

I think They should have bought to condo, and moved into a SFH with the equity. Now they should just buy in the city where their lives are. Prices are not going to go down. That ship has sailed, unfortunately.

MF

#10 Quebec City on 01.07.18 at 2:46 pm

What a stunning city. It is probably hands down, the nicest city in Canada. I had the privelege to check it out a couple years ago with the wife and it was awesome. That is what people need to realize about Canada that will start this correction. Toronto and Vancouver is not the end all be all of Canada. It would be nice if the government promoted this redistribution and worked with employers to start or relocate to smaller cities. The more these places grow the stronger our economy will be overall because people will have disposable income and less debt in these smaller regions. If you have ever looked at what 350k will buy you in Toronto versus other cities, Toronto is basically a parking spot to live in your car and you’re ballin’ anywhere else. GTFO!

#11 Rational Observer on 01.07.18 at 2:47 pm

Good bye, Joan.
Don’t slam the door on your way out.
It disturbs the Feng Shui.

Also, don’t bother moving to the most belle city in North America. Since you don’t speak French, you won’t find a job.

Would you be interested in Moose Jaw?
They have tunnels. Very useful in winter.

#12 Stan Brooks on 01.07.18 at 2:48 pm

And to finish my rant here:

Joan, you are exactly what the rulers of this place need: obedient, complacent workers who will pay for the baby boomers, for raising your kids, pay the ever increasing debt, support all the public sector workers and their generous retirement plans with nothing left for you except hope/to win from the Lottery.

Except that they overdid it big time and even the blind see that there is no hope left. No carrot. Just the debt stick.

So you will see ‘nearly’ misses on almost everything in life, at the end probably will see very little from all carefully built nest eggs like your RRSP.

Just realize the truth that you are not important in this debt slaves farm, the government and big business is.

Go someplace south, away from the rat race, relax, clear you head, regain your perspective and make your choice.

You will not regret it.

You will see no empathy once your job is automated/outsourced or if you get sick, the machine will simply spit you out and move on.

Cheers.

#13 saskatoon on 01.07.18 at 3:03 pm

another sicko, selfish millen.

vacations to South Africa, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, London, Mexico, 3 months of backpacking in Southeast Asia and numerous weekends to the USA?

but you can’t ultimately look after your own children?

you aren’t spoiled; you are disgusting.

#14 First world problems on 01.07.18 at 3:14 pm

““We’re now at a crossroads… our baby is 7 months old and even if I can find a daycare space for him, it’s going to cost us $2000/month. We are grandfathered into our rent at $1850/month so it’s affordable, but finding more space is in the $3000+ range — I had hoped an empty homes tax would create more availability in the market but I haven’t seen any indication of this.””

yet…

“Several vacations including South Africa, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, London, Mexico, 3 months of backpacking in Southeast Asia and numerous weekends to the USA. Yes, we are spoiled millennials.”

Oh! The pain! (sarc).
Where’s Nicholas Maduro to share the wealth from these spoiled millennials? You have screwed millenials and spoiled millennials president Maduro. Their portfolio is great for a Petro currency!

#15 Lost...but not leased on 01.07.18 at 3:16 pm

Oh the Irony…..

Doing a little homework.

Looked into BC’s Property Purchase Tax..(PPT).
Initiated in 1987…apparently it’s intent was to ……drumm rolll …..reduce speculation!!!( at a time when average house cost $150,000)

The PPT is a useful parameter on the RE market. Graph comparing revenue of (i) Fuel Tax with (ii) PPT show that until 2013/2014 both taxes more or less paralleled each other ie $ 900 million from each tax.

After that, the graph shows a MAJOR divergence in 2017..whereby PPT total reached $2 Billion, while Fuel tax reached approx. $1 Billion. One extrapolation is property sales do not correlate to “in house” domestic vehicular traffic.

However, projections for 2018 indicate PPT revenue of $1.6 Billion and , again..$1 Billion for Fuel Tax.

Read into this what thou wilst…

#16 Fuzzy Camel on 01.07.18 at 3:16 pm

I’m seriously considering packing up shop and moving my family and my business down to the states.

This government has lost it’s mind and so have the fools who elected them. I’m tired of having Wynne and Trudeau ramming their rainbow flag agendas down my throat while they steal my money through feminist taxation policies.

Garth, you may want to start a blog about moving abroad from Canada.

These Liberals want everyone deep in debt, broke, living in a 400sq-ft condo, and gay. That’s right I said what needs to be said.

They don’t want us having families anymore. This is either a completely idiotic government or economic population control.

#17 Damifino on 01.07.18 at 3:19 pm

Since its inception, Vancouver has brimmed with real estate speculators and fast buck artists. Greed now pervades every square foot of this mean little town with it’s relatively skimpy population of 647 K.

City council is firmly tucked in the back pocket of developers and will remain there. All initiatives by local and provincial governments to mitigate the so-called ‘affordability crisis’ are window dressing at best, and cynically misdirected at worst.

This beautiful gem of a place at the mouth of the Fraser grows uglier and angrier with each passing year, the ‘Greenest City on Earth’ nonsense notwithstanding.

I was born here in 1950. I still manage to find things to love about the place if I search hard enough and avoid peak hours. But lately, I watch my back. I can feel the resentment in the air. It’s turning into ‘no country for old men’, even if they do rent.

#18 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.07.18 at 3:26 pm

DELETED

#19 Paul on 01.07.18 at 3:28 pm

Our landlord is a sketchy dude who randomly says the owners are thinking of selling at least once a year, not the kind of stress we feel we deserve after 4.5 years of paying rent to these jerks.
——————————————————————–
Good thing for those “Jerks” or you may be living under a bridge!

#20 The Chill Factor. on 01.07.18 at 3:30 pm

Then again, Vancouver/Victoria are the only options for living in Canada and not suffering a -20°C.

So an exodus from Vancouver would mean Trump Land’s political climate (brrrr) or the domestic bitter cold (brrr.)

Or Victoria, I guess. I should look into that.

#21 Sarah on 01.07.18 at 3:38 pm

Awesome blog. We are a family that left yvr for Vancouver island. Bought a brand new house for 1/3rd of the price here and we are able to raise 2 babies aged 1 and 3. I get to stay home and raise the kids and husband doesn’t work as much where as in yvr we were both working 2 jobs each trying to get somewhere. The sad thing is seeing all of our friends and family back home and are never happy (always stressed). We have a ton of time for family and for things that bring us joy, we wish everyone had time for us too but unfortunately not.

We realized there is more to life than running on that hamster wheel… at least that’s how we see it.

#22 Lost...but not leased on 01.07.18 at 3:46 pm

# 7 Zapstrap

RICHMOND BC had a legion(LEGION 5… in central Richmond) that had declining membership.

In the 1990’s they had proposed some form of affordable housing on the site called “Royal Gardens”.

The project was Non Profit…hence much cheaper…proposed 160 units offered to legions 2,000 members. The project req’d 2/3 presale and included a new legion facility.

Long story short… project failed..what stands there now is another 16 storey tower in Richmond with market housing.

Lesson? no one has a crystal ball..but this is a classic case of opportunity squandered.If this case had proceeded, it may have been a template for the future.

#23 conan on 01.07.18 at 3:47 pm

Everyone I meet from Hong Kong seems to believe that Vancouver is destined to be Hong Kong 2.0

Get a city planning degree, look at the maps, and behold! Buy that land right there, and cha ching!

This little boat could change military history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Wasp_(LHD-1)

It carries the F 35, a plane that very much wants to shake off its nasty reputation. The Wasp has just joined the American Armada near Korea. For all its faults, a working F 35 can hit hard and get out. Making it the perfect plane for ……………….

Fun times.

#24 lefty on 01.07.18 at 3:48 pm

Why not totally give up on life and move to Ottawa? 400k average house price, MoneySense says it’s the best city in the country to live for people whose fathers used to be PM. And unlike Quebec City, only our hockey team wants to separate.

#25 BlorgDorg on 01.07.18 at 3:55 pm

So glad you finally posted about this – in my opinion, the REAL (and under-realized) issue from this housing mess. More than pushing so many into an inescapable debt trap, our culture has become hostile to new families in those most distorted areas (GTA, lower mainland).

Our situation is very similar: almost $200K combined income, 2 kids under 3, renting a concrete shoebox in downtown Toronto for $1800. (Not) Buying is a no-brainer but rental stock and prices are also insane as amateur landlords try to cover their (heavily leveraged) carrying costs. Even renting a 2000 sq-ft place in the 905 will run close to $3000/month, and that comes with mold, a crappy commute, and a first-time landlord.

The real problem is the cost of childcare: at $1500/month (or more) in Toronto, 2 or more young kids eat an entire income rapidly. Not to mention the dwindling families mean the schools within the 416 are getting shut down (and probably turned into condos).

It’s going to be very interesting to see how this plays out. And depressing for those who are trying to start a family.

#26 MF on 01.07.18 at 3:56 pm

#10 Quebec City on 01.07.18 at 2:46 pm

Quebec City is really nice. Great history. Rich in culture, but the French can be prohibitive for a lot of people if you don’t speak it well. That and the weather. It’s horribly cold in Toronto but still slightly better than QC.

The GTA is booming. It’s the economic center of Canada and there are lots of jobs, entertainment, culture etc. There is the downside as well (long commutes, traffic etc.) but this is a problem for all large cities.

If you want the big city feel, then Toronto is the New York of Canada and nothing else really compares.

MF

#27 diharv on 01.07.18 at 3:58 pm

It actually looks like one could live in that 1.5M heap. Unlike previously shown condemned crackshacks for more money , so maybe things are slowly looking up for joe average citizen in no fun city . Still , my house here in the BC interior has more space than the land that heap sits on .

#28 I’m stupid on 01.07.18 at 4:03 pm

Well folks, 16 months 2 Ivf cycles nearly 70k total cost including drugs, pgs testing and era scratch test but my wife is now pregnant. It was a long difficult road filled with every emotion a human can have. Lessons are learnt during difficult times. You learn more about yourself and what’s really important when faced with adversity. Ivf, as difficult and emotionally exhausting as it was, has strengthened our relationship.

#29 not so liquid in calgary on 01.07.18 at 4:08 pm

Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.07.18 at 2:02 pm
Who left the gate open? – Garth

—————

Lol. You can’t just be rid of me Garth. I’m like the son you never had.

or wanted

========================================

please Garth, be rid of him

#30 Average Joe on 01.07.18 at 4:14 pm

To all those who constantly threaten to pack up and leave Canada, for whatever reason, just go already.

On behalf of those of us who love this country, many of whom can actually leave (thanks to multiple citizenships) including myself, good riddance.

Please and thank you. I am Canadian, after all.

#31 Eb on 01.07.18 at 4:18 pm

Does anyone know of a website that gives sales history of real estate (for a fee) and address lookup for a charted view of the price? Someone posted it here before but I cannot find it… Maybe it was taken down

#32 Zapstrap on 01.07.18 at 4:18 pm

#22 Lost…but not leased on 01.07.18 at 3:46 pm

RICHMOND BC had a legion(LEGION 5… in central Richmond) that had declining membership.

Sounds like a different story altogether … the one over here (Delta) is in a “strip mall” and I assume they rent space. My guess is the landlord is the “anonymous donor” and gave them free rent for another year. Good on him if he did.

#33 Rexx Rock on 01.07.18 at 4:21 pm

Victoria is not much better than Vancouver.Stiff competion for good jobs,high real estate prices,long commutes from West Shore and a overall high cost of living on a Island.Many young people and old are leaving Victoria for the same reason,income ,can’t support any decent kind of living.
Stan Brooks has got it right.The young need to move to get any kind of future without being basic serfs living in a unaffordable city.Victoria,Vancouver and GtA is finished for the up and coming middle class.

#34 Stan Brooks on 01.07.18 at 4:22 pm

#16 Fuzzy Camel on 01.07.18 at 3:16 pm
I’m seriously considering packing up shop and moving my family and my business down to the states.

This government has lost it’s mind and so have the fools who elected them. I’m tired of having Wynne and Trudeau ramming their rainbow flag agendas down my throat while they steal my money through feminist taxation policies.

Garth, you may want to start a blog about moving abroad from Canada.

These Liberals want everyone deep in debt, broke, living in a 400sq-ft condo, and gay. That’s right I said what needs to be said.

They don’t want us having families anymore. This is either a completely idiotic government or economic population control.

————————

It is both:

population control through idiotic government.

#35 45north on 01.07.18 at 4:27 pm

The deluge of capital into residential real estate since the credit crisis of 2008-9 has changed the nature of living in many of our largest cities. As financial markets temporarily tanked, politicians panicked. Rates were slashed to historic lows. Absurd housing incentives were created. Governments encouraged over-borrowing and inflated house values as the easiest path to economic revival. And then the speculation and house lust started. Now we have average homes average people cannot afford.

what if the people that run the economy have figured out how to decouple real estate from the economy? I’m not talking about Canada – I’m talking about the US. When the credit crisis took place in 2008-9, the US Fed dropped interest rates to zero. Now it’s raising them and Canada is following suit. What I’m saying is that Canada is out-of-step with the US and not in a good way.

Danielle Park presented a graph of Yearly Change in Average Price and Yearly Change in Benchmark Price:

https://www.howestreet.com/2018/01/05/opportunity-coming-for-those-who-are-ready/

real estate in the GTA climbed out of the trough in 2009 because Canadian interest rates followed the US to zero but that’s not going to happen this time but like last time politicians in Canada have panicked – the Federal Liberals launched an attack on small business followed by the Ontario Liberals who too launched an attack on small business – it’s what they do. Real estate in the GTA will decline and the decline will accelerate in the spring as it becomes evident that the government is not/cannot do anything. As the real estate market accelerates downwards, the level of panic in the politicians will accelerate upwards.

#36 Lost...but not leased on 01.07.18 at 4:27 pm

#23 Conan

Re: Vancouver = ” Hong Kong 2.0 ” ?

Yes..bang on….those that try to make sense of what is going on have come to this conclusion.

I would ALSO submit that IF Vancouver was not a major Port City (aka located at or next to Winnipeg or Saskatoon )…we would not have the current RE malaise.

Pattern recognition is KEY.

The END …..

#37 Karma on 01.07.18 at 4:29 pm

What people should know about crypto currencies:

https://t.co/8YTzEszzaf?amp=1

#38 akashic record on 01.07.18 at 4:32 pm

#108 Momma Said on 01.07.18 at 1:10 pm

#101 akashic record on 01.07.18 at 12:39 pm
#85 Momma Said on 01.07.18 at 9:55 am
#52 akashic record on 01.06.18 at 8:22 pm
—. You are free to leave. You are not free to lie in the weeds and moralize. – Garth
********
My momma always said “Keep your thoughts to yourself.” If you don’t like it here, immigrate to Alaska. That’s why it’s there, ya crazy-a$$ed nihilist.
===
Your momma was wrong.

I immigrated enough already in this lifetime to learn my lesson, but thanks for the kind, wise advice.
********
My DB plan’s Gr. 2 Class is a spectrum of hues and they all get along. Maybe because they and you have not yet crossed paths?

——-

Maybe you just have not told yet the class the special part of the “Momma’s said” curriculum:

“Keep your thoughts to yourself. If you don’t like it here, immigrate to Alaska. That’s why it’s there, ya crazy-a$$ed nihilist”.

It will trigger more than Garth’s Deleted filter.

#39 Smoking Man on 01.07.18 at 4:33 pm

Just wait till the libtards build a wall to keep you and your money trapped in Kanuckstan.

That’s what happens, mass exidouse when communism takes hold. The young brownshirts cheering the min wage will be going door to door soon to kill you and steal your money.

Get out now!!!!

Weed is pretty good in California.

#40 Mattl on 01.07.18 at 4:33 pm

Staying in their parents basement was probably a good choice for this couple.

That said, anyone that didn’t have that luxury, and bought a condo 7 years ago in yvr has done ok. A condo that is worth 190k more today was well under 400k in 2010. Mortage prop tax and strata on a 350k unit in 2010
Would be around 2100. Rents would have been in the 1600-2000 range for similar. So for 10k down and a few hundred a month over cost of market rent – lets say 30k over the lasy 7 years – they could have been 190k further ahead, and 18 years away from owning the unit.

There is almost no math that puts a like for like renter ahead of a yvr buyer over the last 7 years. Cheap money, big rent increases and insane appreciation put the guy that bought 7 years ago way ahead. Believe it or not its possible to own a home AND invest.

So good luck to that couple in Edmonton, thank god they didn’t buy in YVR. Kits has nothing on Sherwood Park.

#41 Vancouverless on 01.07.18 at 4:37 pm

Stan Brooks,

I think it’s about time you put a gun in your mouth and ended it if the future is that bleak.

#42 Victoria Prices on 01.07.18 at 4:40 pm

Victoria prices, while not as bad as Vancouver, are now unrealistic as well. The average price of a home just topped 900K and that is for a fixer upper. Here is a link to the recent info on housing prices in the local news:

https://www.cheknews.ca/average-home-price-victoria-surpasses-900000-first-time-393536/

#43 Cockles Murphy on 01.07.18 at 4:45 pm

I dare to say St. John’s, Nfld is on a fair par with Quebec City. Beeutiful b’y, friggin’ cold, and nobody speaks a word of English. I don’t s’pose the current inhabitants would mind skootching over to the Grand Bank to make room for the come-from-aways. Maybe we could let ’em form their own country, again.

#44 Mrs Hubris on 01.07.18 at 4:48 pm

“In the meantime the conflict, despair, anger and finger-pointing will continue between those who won the housing lottery and try to hang on and the disenfranchised who envy and hate”
———————————-
Do not agree with Bobby (*1) that the NDP will save any of the “disenfranchised”. “Those who won the housing lottery”, despite political promises, remain unassailably on the winning side unless the market crashes under its own weight. John Horgan, like all politicians, will not do anything which leads to a fall in the price of houses. Proposed solutions are actually based on maintaining high prices whilst addressing only the more extreme social problems. As Horgan himself says “You don’t want to impact people’s equity who are already in the market place” while ” any taxes or other financial changes to try to curb high real estate prices are done “without disrupting the markets and without putting fear into the minds of homeowners who believe that their equity might vanish overnight.”

http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/so-many-housing-promises-we-inspect-city-provincial-and-federal-plans-to-figure-out-what-will-be-built-when-and-where

It seems that the worst thing politicians could do is reduce the equity of those whose houses have appreciated by 200% or more. Once a lovely city, Vancouver is now a rather sad and corrupt place.

#45 Frank on 01.07.18 at 4:51 pm

Joan is full of it and trying to justify not getting into the market.

Since then the same condo’s risen in market value by $190,000

Well then it was less than that to start with because in the last 7 years the market has more than doubled.

In that time we’ve managed to save $250K

You could have done the same thing if you had bought because you didn’t save any money on renting. Rental costs have sky rocketed as well in the same period. Market rentals costs are more than the equivalent mortgage would have been in 2011.

This is pure cognitive dissonance. Buying real estate in Vancouver seven years ago puts you ahead financially. Now she’s painted herself into a corner where she’s priced out of the market and only managed to survive because the same rent control that makes her decision seem sane is keeping rents high so she can’t move. Had she bought and wanted to upsize she could crystalize some gains and move laterally for less than a 100% monthly housing jump.

Good luck finding a job in any of those cheap cities. Over 50% of all jobs added in the last year were in Vancouver and Toronto. Guess if they’re the high paying ones or not.

#46 Dave on 01.07.18 at 4:53 pm

You can’t buy a decent condo in Victoria for less than half a million. Who will pou the coffee other than temporary foreign workers?

#47 Keith in Rio on 01.07.18 at 4:56 pm

I left YVR in 1986.

Only took me two years living there to realize I made a mistake. Back then ownership was an absolute joke (overpriced even then) compared to Calgary where I had moved from, but the rents were still affordable.

It was the 300 day monsoon season that drove me away.

#48 Coder in Exile on 01.07.18 at 4:59 pm

As a Canadian who has lived in Los Angeles and now San Francisco, to put things into perspective, this scenario seems typical. Never mind the real estate, the rent is approaching out of reach for the average person. Recently overheard from the barista down the street, paying $1700 for 1 Bedroom ensuite above a garage in Bayview, ranked the 3rd most dangerous neighborhood in the city. Roughly 90% of their wage working at the coffee shop that is a 1 hour commute away on transit. Some of the Gen X folks I know, bought in Oakland in the past couple of years, but if anything should change they will all be underwater in no time. Everyone younger, double income or not, cannot afford to move from their rent controlled rental to upsize for child, nor can they ever consider buying anywhere without leaving the state, or find the most inconvenient uninhabited place where there are very few if any jobs.

Something has to change, this hasn’t made sense for a long while.

#49 Orcas and Islands on 01.07.18 at 5:02 pm

Early forties. Sold out of North Van in 2016 to buy water front in Nanaimo. 23% YoY increase since then. North Van assessment down in contrast. Lots of mainlanders now arriving in the hood and buying with their re winnings as did we. Many more wannabees sailing the Salish each week – ferry is busier and busier. Still waiting for an re downer – been a bear all along and GF reader since 2008. Ready with some liquidity for the the kill.

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.18 at 5:08 pm

@#17 Damifino
“This beautiful gem of a place at the mouth of the Fraser grows uglier and angrier with each passing year, the ‘Greenest City on Earth’ nonsense notwithstanding.

…… I still manage to find things to love about the place if I search hard enough and avoid peak hours. But lately, I watch my back. I can feel the resentment in the air. It’s turning into ‘no country for old men’, even if they do rent.

++++++

Total agreement.
The city is angrier and more stressed than ever.
People are pissed….about everything……

5 more years max for me and then I’m gone.
Tired of the crappy drivers, constant grid lock and govt car insurance rates beyond all semblance of fairness…
The Lowerbrainland can have its self absorbed pretentions…..see ya later.

#51 acdel on 01.07.18 at 5:09 pm

To think that Calgary and Quebec city (which I agree is beautiful, Europe in Canada) became twin (sister cities) back in 1956. We have more in common attitude wise then most.

http://dailyhive.com/calgary/calgary-six-sister-cities/

Good for you Joan and not so fresh husband now; good choice!

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.18 at 5:11 pm

@#41 Vancouverless

My my,
Careful your compassion and empathy are rearing their ugly heads again

#53 Madcat on 01.07.18 at 5:17 pm

#16 Fuzzy Camel
“I’m seriously considering packing up shop and moving my family and my business down to the states.”

I am considering doing exactly the same thing. I have a small business that operates in Langley. Most of the product we manufacture is shipped to the United States.

My husband’s mother and sister are Americans currently living in Washington. We are going to be applying for his US citizenship. My plan would be to slowly transition my business to the US.

Drastic times calls for drastic measures.

Garth, it would be much appreciated if you would consider doing a post on the subject of running a small business in Canada while living across the border as a Canadian or dual citizen…

#54 JRT on 01.07.18 at 5:33 pm

Great on you Joan and your husband. I am sure a lot of your friends thought you were insane not to buy. I live in the south Okanagan. Around Penticton, I see a lot of these shoe-box condos going up with no dirt. They even use sh*tboard for the roof. Avoid any structure that uses this for roofing. Bad enough it is used period. There is a sunshine tax. Work is easier to find than the past, but mainly due to construction, which if past history is any indication, it will slow down soon.

#55 Momma Said on 01.07.18 at 5:36 pm

#38 akashic record on 01.07.18 at 4:32 pm
too many #’s
Your momma was wrong.

I immigrated enough already in this lifetime to learn my lesson, but thanks for the kind, wise advice

… waste of bandwidth …

——-
Maybe you just have not told yet the class the special part of the “Momma’s said” curriculum:

“Keep your thoughts to yourself. If you don’t like it here, immigrate to Alaska. That’s why it’s there, ya crazy-a$$ed nihilist”.

It will trigger more than Garth’s Deleted filter.
*********
I thought the attribution parsing was obvious, but maybe not.
My mother said: KYTTY
I said: Fuddle duddle.

Racism is like rabies, treatable if caught early, but better not to get exposed. Bite me, in your next lifetime.

#56 right on cue.. on 01.07.18 at 5:36 pm

the doom and gloom cartoon character Stan Brooks chimes in with his rubbish.

ain’t moving to Texas. Aint moving to Minny, bloody cold there dude. Certainly not moving to Asia.

staying here. And i’ll be fine. Take crazy elsewhere

#57 re., Vancouverless on 01.07.18 at 5:38 pm

Stan Brooks,

I think it’s about time you put a gun in your mouth and ended it if the future is that bleak.
………..

LMFAO. He can’t , has a dog.

#58 Lead Paint on 01.07.18 at 5:38 pm

I’m stupid on 01.07.18 at 4:03 pm

Congrats, that’s wonderful news. Lots of big, wonderful changes coming your way. Just do your kid a favour and let the wife pick their name.

#59 Bhad Bhabie on 01.07.18 at 5:42 pm

“Bite me, in your next lifetime.”

dat a good one ;-)))

#60 JSS on 01.07.18 at 5:43 pm

Edmonton

https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/24658659067/

#61 Bhad Bhabie on 01.07.18 at 5:47 pm

whats for sunday suppa

crackers

#62 millmech on 01.07.18 at 5:50 pm

#40 Mattl
Thanks I needed a good laugh.

#63 For those about to flop... on 01.07.18 at 5:51 pm

Hey Lost ,after spending a little bit more time looking at that Twitter feed you drew my attention to I plucked the ones below out to follow and see what the result is.

Some of the others as I said I had already shown and maybe a couple of these but I will weed them out with time.

There will be some weeding,but no pot will be smoked…

M43BC

C.G

8060 Dalemore Rd,Richmond.

Paid 1.7 April 2017 asking 1.99

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/8060-dalemore-road

4902 Duncliffe Rd, Richmond

Paid 1.78 March 2017 asking 1.96

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/4902-duncliffe-road

3100 Blundell Rd,Richmond

Paid 1.77 January 2017 asking 1.99

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/3100-blundell-road

7300 Francis Rd,Richmond.

Paid 4.1 February 2017 asking 4.88

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/7300-francis-road

11740 Yoshida Crt,Richmond

Paid 1.12 July 2017 asking 1.28

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/11740-yoshida-court

10040 Severn Dr ,Richmond

Paid 1.39 April 2017 asking 1.59 was asking 1.44

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/10040-severn-drive

3035 Garry st,Richmond.

Paid 1.24 August 2017 asking 1.38

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/3035-garry-street

4231 Woodhead Rd,Richmond.

Paid 1.31 February 2017 asking 1.59

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/4231-woodhead-road

3853 38th ave,Vancouver.

Paid 6.8 April 2017 asking 7.39

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3853-w-38th-avenue

#64 Indie Chick on 01.07.18 at 5:57 pm

Way to go Joan! We moved from Toronto to Halifax early last year and haven’t looked back. It’s amazing how much life you can live when you are not constantly obsessing about real estate. Let someone else fund a boomer’s retirement or a spec-er’s bank account for that matter. Good luck to you!

#65 Kilt on 01.07.18 at 6:06 pm

#45 Frank
Good luck finding a job in any of those cheap cities. Over 50% of all jobs added in the last year were in Vancouver and Toronto. Guess if they’re the high paying ones or not.
**********************
Frank is right on that one. Finding a good job in some of the smaller markets can be difficult. It really depends on what you do. For sought after places, like Kelowna, Comox, and Victoria, most of the good paying jobs have a lot of competition. Everything else is minimum wage, or piece meal. Not enough money to live off. And keep in mind, if you are thinking it, then there are a heap of other people thinking of doing the same thing. House prices on Vancouver Island have gone up 10 to 25% and listings are sparse. Everybody and their dog starting a lawn care or dog walking service. Make sure you have good nest egg before you make that move.

Kilt

#66 Mean Gene on 01.07.18 at 6:22 pm

Joan and Hubby have their $hit together, it’s easy to forget while living in Metro Vaincouver the majority of Canadians live in places where the weather really sucks, so making the jump REALLY isn’t a hardship.

#67 I’m stupid on 01.07.18 at 6:32 pm

#58 Lead paint

Thank you… after seeing what my wife went threw it’s only deserving that she gets naming rights.

#68 When the Whip Comes Down on 01.07.18 at 6:34 pm

#42 Victoria Prices – the +$902,000 makes a good headline. However, that is from November stats published by VREB where there was a shift in the sale mix in particular in Central Saanich where the avg price moved to ~$1,550,000 from ~$850,000 in the past. There were obviously some very large properties sold in that part of the island in November. December’s stats show the overall avg coming down~6%, not $902,000 any longer. While still expensive, the island prices are by no means the level of what Vancouver is at. The benchmark detached price has levelled off and come down very slightly from the peak in July. Van Isle is also suffering from an endemic shortage of qualified labour. Its pretty simple – generally, jobs don’t pay enough to attract a younger demographic of qualified candidates in many sectors to the island and those who are young and qualified candidates are looking elsewhere for better jobs and a lifestyle and housing environment with more bang for the buck.

#69 SimplyPut7 on 01.07.18 at 6:41 pm

A lot of people close to retirement or already retired, tried to sell in Toronto in March – April 2017. But all of the housing market timers, flippers and speculators were also trying to sell at the same time.

If you don’t have to work anymore, there are a lot of nice smaller towns outside of the GTA, that even people born or raised in Toronto would prefer to live without worrying about owing so much money to a bank/private lender.

I hope there are enough speculators left in Vancouver to buy all of the homes boomers need to fund their retirement. If they all try to sell at the same time like they did in Toronto, they may be disappointed at the lower sale price they have to accept to leave the city, or may not be able to sell at all, as the people who would have been around to buy their homes have gone to other parts of Canada to live their lives.

There’s only so much money you can get from taking out a reverse mortgage on your home or using a HELOC to fund retirement compared to selling your home and living debt free.

#70 For those about to flop... on 01.07.18 at 6:42 pm

Diharv #27
It actually looks like one could live in that 1.5M heap. Unlike previously shown condemned crackshacks for more money , so maybe things are slowly looking up for joe average citizen in no fun city . Still , my house here in the BC interior has more space than the land that heap sits on .

////////////////////////

I will submit this house as an example of the cooling going on in Vancouver.

I think a few people should look at this listing to see what you can get for your money.

Yes ,it is still a lot of money and concessions need to be made, but people seemed brainwashed that they have to move south of the Fraser and the Millies definitely prefer more glass.

There is a school and a park nearby for the kids although it is not the biggest house.

This is not a recent purchase and was slowly renovated.
They could have gotten close to 1.6 in Spring 2016.

A bulldozer a couple of doors down went for 1.4 during the same period.

These guys have reduced a couple of times and are now gown to 1.29 for a decently renovated house 5kms from downtown.

Like I said concessions need to be made ,but if your life is here and you want it bad enough and want to let owning real estate define you then moving to the valley or the island should not be rushed into as being the end to all your woes.

You don’t need to wait until thousands of houses are back in your price range.

You just need to find one in distress…

M43BC

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2226454/4961-somerville-street-vancouver-bc

#71 Sydneysider on 01.07.18 at 6:42 pm

“but finding more space is in the $3000+ range”

This is someone who does not use Craigslist. For example:

https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/bnc/apa/d/home-for-rent-burnaby-north/6447236334.html

A nice 2BR bungalow, $2600.

https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/bnc/apa/d/lovely-house-in-parkcrest/6437192739.html

4BR house, $2500.

#72 DON` on 01.07.18 at 6:43 pm

#20 The Chill Factor. on 01.07.18 at 3:30 pm

Then again, Vancouver/Victoria are the only options for living in Canada and not suffering a -20°C.

So an exodus from Vancouver would mean Trump Land’s political climate (brrrr) or the domestic bitter cold (brrr.)

Or Victoria, I guess. I should look into that.

*******************

Those other places are expensive – as average incomes are lower. They will all fall – as real estate is local and even the rural areas have been priced up.

It may not snow much on the west coast of BC. Instead the sun disappears and the damp cold sets in. It now seems to be a conversation point from those who moved to the west coast to get away from the cold. “At least the sun came out back in Alberta etc. Different kind of cold.

#73 Lost...but not leased on 01.07.18 at 6:53 pm

#32 Zapstrap

Thanks for the info…

Richmond had several Legions that are/were ” stand alone ” properties.

I am not sure re: other jurisdictions.

#74 Mike Duffy's life coach on 01.07.18 at 6:56 pm

stan brooks typed-

‘And GT, I appreciate your patriotism and optimistic view’


‘optimistic view’ ?
I missed that blog post
When was it?

#75 KanukInOregon on 01.07.18 at 6:57 pm

Here’s the thing – most peeps in cities don’t take advantage of what they have to offer. Yes, you can get great takeout… but that convenience is offset by horrific trafic, parking, prices. They would find living in a smaller place surprisingly awesome. Stream movies, Amazon deliveries, cheaper everything…used to live in TO, Montreal and Ottawa. Sayonara, suckers!

#76 akashic record on 01.07.18 at 6:58 pm

55 Momma Said on 01.07.18 at 5:36 pm

——-
Maybe you just have not told yet the class the special part of the “Momma’s said” curriculum:

“Keep your thoughts to yourself. If you don’t like it here, immigrate to Alaska. That’s why it’s there, ya crazy-a$$ed nihilist”.

It will trigger more than Garth’s Deleted filter.
*********
I thought the attribution parsing was obvious, but maybe not.
My mother said: KYTTY
I said: Fuddle duddle.

Racism is like rabies, treatable if caught early, but better not to get exposed. Bite me, in your next lifetime.

What racism did your fuddle duddle attribute parse?

#77 When the Whip Comes Down on 01.07.18 at 6:59 pm

#45 Frank – I guess hindsight is always 20/20 isn’t it, Frank? And you have never made a bet you didn’t lose? Never bet wrong way, always win in Vegas etc ;) They’ve got to make the best decision they can given the cards they have now. Go ahead and beat them up for that.

#78 Dave on 01.07.18 at 7:00 pm

Everyone in Vancouver BC is saying….Wait till Chinese New Year because this is the boom that launches a new real estate cycle every year.

NDP is well aware of this; hence the timing of the new real estate Taxes. Timing will be perfect.

#79 Tony on 01.07.18 at 7:03 pm

Re: #10 Quebec City on 01.07.18 at 2:46 pm

One of the nicest cities but because of the taxation the city will only always attract the poor.

#80 Editrix on 01.07.18 at 7:05 pm

No surprise that the 30 somethings are moving out. In my industry there are new opportunities in Montreal. The other fellow at work who does the same job as I do quit before Xmas to leave Toronto to take a job in Montreal. Cheaper rent, better pay, better quality of life. The only thing he’s complaining about is the Quebec taxation. Well, you can’t have everything.

#81 VanIsleStyle on 01.07.18 at 7:11 pm

And it barely mentions the seven months of relentless rain… or brutal traffic in the LM. I am based in North Van doing service work around the LM area and see the grim extent of it daily. My co-workers with kids are forced to live in the burbs and hating the two hour commutes each way. The growth is staggering with high rises going up like weeds but nothing’s being done to improve the capacity of the roads.

#82 J. Canuck on 01.07.18 at 7:15 pm

“Well folks, 16 months 2 Ivf cycles nearly 70k total cost including drugs, pgs testing and era scratch test but my wife is now pregnant. ”

****************
Boy, talk about people being suckered into buying a house. Seventy grand for a kid? You could have adopted for about ten grand.

#83 Captainsurfalot on 01.07.18 at 7:18 pm

Vancouveless not sure about your comment- pretty ignorant. Guess you’ve never lost a friend in this manner-more and more depressed people out there:no thanks to social media crap.
People are just putting things into perspective. Canada has fallen prey to economic discrimination. We allowed wealthy people to buy their way into Canada creating an imbalance in the local economic biosphere. The locals both pigged out on debt and panic bought (maybe in reality not a bad idea as many gained equity) The problem is the idea of paying the bank interest for a loan for 30 years is kind of gross to say the least. People look at payments when buying-sadly not enough actually consider paying off which drives up borrowing demand and residential prices. Our own stupidity.-this is why many live on a treadmill. It’s harder to build balance portfolio when almost all monies earned goes to shelter and tax. It’s never been easy for any generation, but what Canada has done the past 20 years or so is destroy it’s moral compass letting greed rule. Most people want a simple life- basic home paid for, family, food on table, maybe a holiday and decent quality of life. Local wages have sadly fallen behind at least in most parts of B.C. and Ontario.
Sad to say to many that believe 200k is going to get you ahead in BC in this day and age: forget it. You will be just getting by. There are a lot of families hurting, and a lot that are pretty smug because they won a land lotto. Ask most if they could afford to buy their homes now with their present wages-I bet a high percentage couldn’t.
Canadians citizens if they could ever get their heads together as a nation do have the power pull together and toughen up foreign ownership such as Australia and New Zealand has done-but we are too short sighted here. Much of Canada is still affordable-but lower mainland of BC is effed for local earners. Garth you are right about a lot but BC does have issues with HOT money: sorry-also careful knocking crypto: the people that created the stuff are also highly intelligent-Especially BTC. It’s not going anywhere.
Vancouver is for Rich people now-soulless plastic miserable people everywhere and dense TRAFFIC at peak capacity-the world is giving you a gift if you are priced out of there. It’s full of a lot of rich dweebs and stressed people running on treadmill. It’s better to enjoy life. You only have one try and live the happiest as one can

#84 Cathy Groom on 01.07.18 at 7:20 pm

Interesting letter and conundrum for this young couple. When I was visiting the Vancouver area in November I heard that some people are living in the condo with plastic patio furniture since that is all that they can afford.

#85 Danny on 01.07.18 at 7:20 pm

Lots to read today but even more to reasonably think about.
Thanks Joan and Garth to remind us of the fun in life that many people because of unprecedented mortgage debt , are not able to enjoy

And yet the lack of transparency in the real estate market continues.

When will there be an independent body to oversee the crooks who hide the real transactions in the housing markets across this country and give the general public access to facts about the largest expense that most Canadians will suffer from?

The Banks have regulatory bodies established by Government to oversee their segment so why are adequate regulations in real estate lacking?

Garth is it time for an update on the issue of lack of transparency and unavailable access by the general public on real estate sales property by property without engagement of a real estate agent?

#86 gfd on 01.07.18 at 7:22 pm

#13 saskatoon on 01.07.18 at 3:03 pm
Costa Rica 8 degrees north of the equator, is a small socialist society with free health care system armed with many US-educated doctors. Last time I checked, you can get on with about $60-100/month full coverage. Check for rules. Economy car rental is about 8 bucks a day. . . . to build a home about $20/sf. I preference Pacific coast. But enough of CR . . . landing in Lihue in few days and back to the frozen tundra in February to get my RV ready for a month in Flamingo at Everglades National Park. Catch me if you can but most importantly, control your primitive emotions.

#87 millmech on 01.07.18 at 7:24 pm

#65 Kilt&#54JRT
Lots of people buy up there and regret it, I would advise renting for at least a year before buying.

#88 Vanreal on 01.07.18 at 7:25 pm

Leaving Vancouver or Toronto is easier said than done. Few jobs elsewhere not to mention mind numbing cold anywhere but Vancouver or the island. I don’t care whether it’s sunny or not when it’s 20 below.

#89 bubu on 01.07.18 at 7:27 pm

What decent house in a decent neighbourhood can you buy in Edmonton for $370k? I think $500k is the minimum… anything under is in a bad location or a crappy house ( for my standards).

#90 Steven Rowlandson on 01.07.18 at 7:27 pm

You can buy this Van heap for $1,478,000.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18363321/4016-RUPERT-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5R2H3

Canada is done son. Best make other plans.

#91 broader mind on 01.07.18 at 7:30 pm

What kind of crap condo only went up 190 k in the last 7 years. Van average condo up north of 300k in last 7 years. Joan missed the boat big time.

#92 Andrew Woburn on 01.07.18 at 7:34 pm

If I were a YVR millennial, I would be looking at Victoria. I think it is the coolest city in BC, and much more funky than condomized Vancouver. Besides, it has jobs in a gorgeous place where you can still afford a roof. You can still go back to Vancouver for the weekend and you will likely be able to afford to enjoy it.

People who think Victoria is still a retirement or government town are way behind the times. Check it out.

“Greater Victoria struggles to fill jobs”

http://www.timescolonist.com/business/greater-victoria-struggles-to-fill-jobs-1.23137661

#93 InvestorsFriend on 01.07.18 at 7:34 pm

Buffett indicator and market valuation

#99 Gravy Train on 01.07.18 at 12:25 pm
#70 Gravy Train on 01.07.18 at 6:40 am gave us links to a market valuation article by the smartest investor in history and also a look at where the Buffett indicator sits today:

2001 Buffett Article:

http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm

According to an article by Jill Mislinski dated Sept. 6, 2017, and updated Jan. 3, 2018, the Buffett Indicator is currently 132.2%, up from 129.1% from the previous quarter. (See her charts in the attached link.)
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/09/06/market-cap-to-gdp-an-updated-look-at-the-buffett-valuation-indicator

***********************************
In his article Buffett warns about investing after years of above average gains in the market.

Looking at the indicator today the link says it is not as high (bad) as 2000.

I am not clear why it is not higher (worse) than 2000 given that since 2000 nominal GNP is up about 87% while the Dow index is up 134% and the S&P 500 index is up 108% and the Wilshire 5000 index is up 133%.

But does even the Wilshire truly represent the value of all U.S. traded securities?

In any event it is clear that stock market values as a multiple of GNP are far higher than normal and P/E ratios are far higher than normal.

Now that MAY be justified by low interest rates which remain far far lower than normal. But those are on the rise.

We have had huge stock gains since the bottom in March 2009. That could continue in 2018 given the tax breaks. But be cautious. The returns on stocks in the next ten years are almost certain to be in the single digits. Almost certainly better than bonds but not near double digits.

I will be shocked if we don’t get say a 20% “correction” within the next couple of years on the S&P 500.

Balance remains appropriate. I would do like Berkshire has and keep a generous allocation in cash in case of bargains ahead. Cash is a legitimate asset class especially now that it can return at least something.

When it come to stability in a portfolio. NOTHING can guarantee stability in terms of the nominal dollar value of an investment portfolio like cash. Absolutely nothing. (But I would count anything guaranteed to mature in cash within say a year to BE cash)

#94 n1tro on 01.07.18 at 7:36 pm

Joan is one smart cookie. Realizing it’s unfeasible to live in Vancouver and decides to go to the burbs instead of getting moist or complaining about the situation. Wish others could see the same light. Vancouver and Toronto are alright places, but by no means the center of the universe.

#95 Linda on 01.07.18 at 7:38 pm

So, looked at the Van listing in this post – nearby amenities listed as ‘shopping’ which could mean the local convenience store. Whee! So lets see – 1920 square feet which presumably includes the finished basement. 5 beds, 2 baths – but didn’t see a photo of the baths so who knows what shape those are in. Noted that the basement area had an ‘unknown’ designation so what is lurking behind the finish? Narrow lot, not even 33 ft wide & just what kind of shape is that lot/yard in? As for the school catchment area, what any buyer with children needs to find out is whether the schools mentioned actually have spaces available to accept new students.

So, maybe the description/photos do not present the property in the most attractive light & it is nicer than it looks. Based on what I saw/read, I’d say this is one over priced & potentially very expensive renovation/tear down place to purchase. Even as a rental it would be a dodgy proposition. Yet the current owners will likely be able to sell to a greater fool…..

#96 Andrew Woburn on 01.07.18 at 7:39 pm

Seth Meyers does a spoof Bitcoin commercial.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg

#97 TurnerNation on 01.07.18 at 7:51 pm

#16 Fuzzy Camel some say the next step in the plan is banning self sustanence via food UNsecurity.

First they tax it then they ban it? Slow steps…all in the name of earth worship the new religion. Experts experts always. Kiss Alberta doubly good by if so.

Tons of food, but we must starve. The govt armed men will dump good foodstuffs into the dump while we wail. History has down it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/meat-sin-tax-1.4472222

“Taxing meat could help offset environmental, health problems, activists say
Some groups want to see animal products taxed similarly to tobacco, sugar and carbon”

#98 Lost...but not leased on 01.07.18 at 7:55 pm

Go on CRAIGSLIST Vancouver “Freebies”

…………….Everything in Vancouver is being given away except for RE

#99 KLNR on 01.07.18 at 7:57 pm

@#16 Fuzzy Camel on 01.07.18 at 3:16 pm

Go for it, leave. you’d be doing Canada a favour lol.

#100 ronh on 01.07.18 at 8:01 pm

The Okanagan Valley – its not nice here, you should go somewhere else.

#101 acdel on 01.07.18 at 8:01 pm

#82 VanIsleStyle

Rain, especially in North Van, the clouds just love to hug the mountain behind you. I lived in North Van back in the 80’s; as I mentioned many times before it was the greatest place to live at that time.

How people do it now is beyond me; now, this a part of the Coast has been completely taken over by special interest groups and speculators that corrupted and destroyed the city for the up and coming future generation. The future is lost!

This is why I applaud Joan and her husband/family and all of you that saw through it all, cashed out, or made good financial decisions and moved on with your lives, a hardy clap to all of you.

#102 InvestorsFriend on 01.07.18 at 8:01 pm

Buffett said his indicator was around 200% in 199 and 2000, and said buying stocks at that level was “playing with fire”

The updated chart from Gravy Train shows us only at 131% so seemingly safe. But wait the update is calcualted differently and shows the 199/2000 peak at 136%.

So, the update says we are now playing with fire. And that was based on September figures. So we are almost certainly worsr than 2000 on this figure at the present moment.

BUT interest rates are lower than 2000 when 10 year was massively higher at around 6%. Now we are 2.5%.

Adjusting for that the Buffett indicator is probably not nearly as bad as year 2000 – But it is still worse than average I am sure.

It is freakishly low interest rates that has Buffett at last report still suggesting that the S&P 500 is a good long term bet at these levels. But where are 10 year rates headed? This is the one variable Buffett said he would first ask for on a crystal ball basis.

#103 Snowbird in Training on 01.07.18 at 8:02 pm

I would like to see the Canadian Dollar stronger vis-a-vis the U.S. Dollar so that I can spend more time in New Mexico Arizona, Florida, Texas, South Carolina, Belize and Hawaii.

#104 InvestorsFriend on 01.07.18 at 8:04 pm

One more and then I hopefully desist. The 10 year yield was closer to 5% when Buffett delivered his speech in Summer 2001 on which that article is based.

#105 Andrew Woburn on 01.07.18 at 8:04 pm

#17 Damifino on 01.07.18 at 3:19 pm

This beautiful gem of a place at the mouth of the Fraser grows uglier and angrier with each passing year, the ‘Greenest City on Earth’ nonsense notwithstanding.

I was born here in 1950. I still manage to find things to love about the place if I search hard enough and avoid peak hours. But lately, I watch my back. I can feel the resentment in the air. It’s turning into ‘no country for old men’, even if they do rent.
======================

Yeah. I felt it too. I laugh when realtors froth about retirees wanting to move to some pokey condo downtown.

#106 Dobermanduke on 01.07.18 at 8:07 pm

#28 I’m stupid on 01.07.18 at 4:03 pm

Congratulations! Wishing you all the best. Keep us posted. Put me into the pool, boy 7 lb. 8 oz.

#83 J. Canuck on 01.07.18 at 7:15 pm
Seriously……..

#107 not meant to be on 01.07.18 at 8:13 pm

I think Frank at post #45 alrady summed it up pretty well, especially with this line:

“Joan is full of it and trying to justify not getting into the market.”
—————-

I’m not as well-spoken and not as nice as Frank so I’ll just say it as it is. I just can’t find it in me to sympathize. Maybe it had to do with not buying 7 years ago, maybe not. Maybe it was the frivolous vacations around the world, maybe not. Joan realizes she cannot have all those things she thought she deserves. So now she leaves. Good for Joan, because millennials like her will have a greater chance of survival in a less competitive city.

There are plenty of young people leaving, but there are still plenty of young people left. I’m not sure if Joan and her family would have made it here even if they pulled the trigger on the condo 7 years ago and didn’t travel. Not everyone was meant to be a home owner, like how not everyone was meant to be make millions a year. We can’t all be in the top 1%.

I see these sob stories all the time. Young people (not so young anymore) finally climb into an entry level professional job in their mid 30’s, realize they cannot afford to continue living in Vancouver, and cry that it must be everyone else’s fault except their own. Not everyone was meant to live in Vancouver. Vancouver will do okay without Joan.

Seems Joan was 24 seven years ago. Likely she could not afford to buy. You sound like a grizzled dink, BTW. – Garth

#108 greyhound on 01.07.18 at 8:13 pm

#87 “Costa Rica 8 degrees north of the equator, is a small socialist society with free health care system armed with many US-educated doctors. Last time I checked, you can get on with about $60-100/month full coverage. Check for rules. Economy car rental is about 8 bucks a day. . . ”

Interesting fact: As of 2013, the last time I looked, if you’re a foreigner and driver in an auto accident in CR, and a CR citizen was injured or killed, the police will seize your passport and not give it back until the accident case is tried in CR courts; that could take months. Taxis are inexpensive and essential.

#109 dr. talc on 01.07.18 at 8:15 pm

as discussed here recently:
all Canadian governments are anti small business
and pro big business
agreed
and many people said they would not start a small business
but thats what the government wants.
be aware its worse elsewhere
an Italian told me to open a gelato shop in Italy takes 2 years of preliminary bullshit: forms, kickbacks etc
in Toronto- it’s find a location, two weeks later he’s selling gelato

#110 Leo Trollstoy on 01.07.18 at 8:17 pm

How’s the dim sum in Costa Rica? Good?

#111 Ronaldo on 01.07.18 at 8:17 pm

#21 Sarah on 01.07.18 at 3:38 pm

Good for you Sarah. Smart move. I know of others who did the same thing. Stress free and living the good life.

#112 HouseRent on 01.07.18 at 8:25 pm

I paid $1600 to rent a three bedrooms townhouse with a good size backyard including hydro and water as well as an underground parking in downtown Toronto 10 minutes walking away from Queens Park. We two together make $180,000 which is so so. Rent is the way to go. Invest my money getting 30% return last year.

#113 Ronaldo on 01.07.18 at 8:31 pm

#49 Orcas and Islands on 01.07.18 at 5:02 pm

Smart move on your part. Isn’t Nanaimo great?

#114 acdel on 01.07.18 at 8:38 pm

#108 dr. talc

So true, the one’s that say that are the one’s who do not understand/know what it is really like in other countries; especially the countries with a strong socialist background.

In Canada for now, we can start a business in two weeks or less, but, if the future populace keeps voting with their ideals instead of smarts then start packing and move somewhere else!

As many posters stated, it is getting to the point of leaving, minus 20 to 60 wind chills, higher taxes from municipal, provincial and federal with Aga Khan moister in the mix with all others that enjoy to spend our tax dollars and preach to us on why they need to tax us more, now there’s talk of taxing meat, this is beyond absurd, either we put a stop to these special interest groups or we can just move on like this blog informed us. There has to be a stop to this absurdity.

For example, in my city, millions have been spent on bike lanes that nobody uses for the most part. The argument is that more people will ride their bike in minus 20 to 40 temperatures; the truth is that most of us use more gas, cause more pollution due to the fact that they have reduced the lanes of traffic. In my city what use to take me 20 minutes now takes me one hour minimum due to traffic jams,why, caused by lane closures due to bike lanes that nobody uses. I am emitting double or triple the exhaust that I use to, it is absurd!!!

Pat yourselves on the back special interest groups!

#115 Sales History on 01.07.18 at 8:38 pm

#31 Eb
Does anyone know of a website that gives sales history…

Here you go, Eb:

https://www.propertyinsight.ca/4016-rupert-street-vancouver-bc-bv5yhlgv43mx

#116 Bluebird on 01.07.18 at 8:44 pm

Timely blog post Garth; the wife and I are setting sail from YVR this week (although a snowmobile would likely get us further where we’re headed…). Like Joan we are also working professionals in our thirties who are sick of the rat race.

#117 down_boy on 01.07.18 at 9:01 pm

Places where people are living the dream don’t tend to make the news.

#118 Bucky on 01.07.18 at 9:21 pm

#11 “Would you be interested in Moose Jaw?
They have tunnels. Very useful in winter.”

Actually a lovely town, like many smaller communities with reasonable costs and a good standard of living. But not for everyone, if you have a university degree and are looking for a professional job, small towns can be rough. Highlights the trap a lot of kids find themselves in. Borrow a lot of money to get a university degree in a field that requires you to live in a larger center, but the salary these jobs pay does not cover the living costs. If you don’t snag that high paying professional job, maybe having a trade on the side and a “plan B’ for a small town would be a good plan? Prince George, Brandon, Moose Jaw, or Red Deer could be in your future. Or 6-figure student loans and negative cash flow living in a hovel (and Toronto is certainly NOT New York). Whatever floats your boat.

#119 DON on 01.07.18 at 9:24 pm

#93 Andrew Woburn on 01.07.18 at 7:34 pm

If I were a YVR millennial, I would be looking at Victoria. I think it is the coolest city in BC, and much more funky than condomized Vancouver. Besides, it has jobs in a gorgeous place where you can still afford a roof. You can still go back to Vancouver for the weekend and you will likely be able to afford to enjoy it.

People who think Victoria is still a retirement or government town are way behind the times. Check it out.

“Greater Victoria struggles to fill jobs”

http://www.timescolonist.com/business/greater-victoria-struggles-to-fill-jobs-1.23137661

****************

One of the main reasons Victoria is having trouble attracting workers is cause no one can afford the rent on what employers are willing to pay. Victoria has always been a place that attracted the Island’s youth. There is more beneath the news headlines.

Victoria appears trendy and quaint but it is quiet. The rush hour is horrible for island standards due to water ways and bridges…On a good day it takes people traveling from downtown to Langford, BC (traveling north up island) at least minutes to go 16km (it is way faster to. That’s where the affordable houses are. Drove past a new subdivision today with empty houses, like 20 – 40 of them.

The city is choked up with traffic and try finding parking. City planners didn’t think about the increase in traffic.

#120 Classically Liberal on 01.07.18 at 9:26 pm

SCM wants to leave Canada?? Progressives are winning the culture and economic wars, dude. You should be loving it here.

#121 DON on 01.07.18 at 9:28 pm

Edit from last post forgot the minutes

“On a good day it takes people traveling from downtown to Langford, BC (traveling north up island) at least 65 – 90 minutes to go 16km (it is way faster to ride a bike in the rain). “

#122 DON on 01.07.18 at 9:31 pm

#100 Lost…but not leased on 01.07.18 at 7:55 pm

Go on CRAIGSLIST Vancouver “Freebies”

…………….Everything in Vancouver is being given away except for RE
********************

Too expensive to get rid of stuff at the local transfer station?

#123 Prairie person on 01.07.18 at 9:43 pm

Life gets stranger and stranger. My bungalow went up 21% last year, 25% this year. I can’t figure out why. I haven’t done anything to it. Had the furnace fixed, the roof treated for moss. Same house, same lot as when I bought it in 2010. The TimesColonist is running articles about the huge demand. Fifteen hundred more condos being built. They say not enough. I know some people are selling in Van and moving to the Island. And there are jobs but I’d look at what those jobs are paying. Tourist jobs pay peanuts. Are usually seasonal. I don’t think baristas in Victoria are paid much. Or clerks selling women’s clothes in malls. A lot of jobs are only good if you are retired, have a pension and are supplementing it . If you buy outside the city, you are looking at the Colwood Crawl, not as bad as living in Abbotsford and driving into Vancouver, but pretty bad. Sitting parked on the highway on the way home. House prices going up don’t do much good because if you sell and want to stay, you have to pay the high prices. Renting is nuts. Lots of small towns going north but they’re turning into suburban sprawl. I don’t understand what is going on. If you can find a job, the Gulf Islands haven’t gone up in price. Good houses, nice properties for very reasonable prices.

#124 What would you do? on 01.07.18 at 9:48 pm

We had this exact same predicament. A Young family who just rented a duplex for $3000 a month in the Main Street neighbourhood. The same property to own would be around $1,350,000, which equates to around $6000 a month inc property taxes and $260,000 pulled out of our portfolio. It pains me to rent, but it still seems like the logical thing to do if you do want to live here. As a landlord, unless you bought a while ago you are loosing bucket loads of cash renting the place.

#125 Momma Said on 01.07.18 at 9:56 pm

#77 akashic record on 01.07.18 at 6:58 pm

momma did not say
ya crazy-a$$ed nihilist”.

What racism did your fuddle duddle attribute parse?
*********
I can’t read your thoughts. I called you a nihilist, racism is what it foments.

#126 ben on 01.07.18 at 9:59 pm

> Good thing for those “Jerks” or you may be living under a bridge!

This is such a silly, misguided way to view it.

Most landlords did not “build” a new home. They took an existing home off the market.

Landlords are claiming to “solve” a problem they created.

#127 Lost...but not leased on 01.07.18 at 10:00 pm

#126 DON..

I’ve previously noted my role as an Executor for my Dad’s estate…

Unless one has had to clean out an estate…here is some advice…

We sold the property..had approx. 2 months to clear it out…

I contacted Auctions..Appraisers…Craigslist..Dealers..etc..
The contents were quality items…a lot of solid quality circa 1950’s 1960’s etc.

Example: Sold a dining room set (6 chairs..table..hutch and sideboard ) for…drumm roll..$100

Overall..didn’t get much more than $900 after exhausting effort..most of that was an old Chevy PU. majority of the items say 95% was donated(Thank God for Value Village)

…or recycled..that in itself was a major task on what the various stations would or would nor accept.

We did luck out simply leaving a lot of items on the curb aka “FOR FREE”…..90% was taken

Looked in CRAIGSLIST for parties to take scrap metal…

We filled (2) large dumpsters for the rest

LESSON?….if in similar situation…unless the estate etc. is full of prime antiques….one is SOL…plan accordingly. As I implied…it appears the zeitgeist in Metro Vancouver is no value in anything except Real Estate.

#128 ben on 01.07.18 at 10:03 pm

> take a job in Montreal. Cheaper rent, better pay, better quality of life.

Do NOT come here. It’s terrible. Between my kids in a good school, laid back people, good food, good transport and cheap rent it sucks. :-)

#129 ben on 01.07.18 at 10:10 pm

> Life gets stranger and stranger. My bungalow went up 21% last year, 25% this year. I can’t figure out why. I haven’t done anything to it.

Couple of reasons.

1. banks are issuing more money as credit against the same wages forcing the young to pledge more of their future earnings to bankers to have a home

2. banks are allowing huge money laundering from outside Canada

bonus third:

3. Canadians are hugely in debt and entering the property speculation game because as you noted wages have detached from land prices

It won’t end well.

#130 ben on 01.07.18 at 10:12 pm

> As a landlord, unless you bought a while ago you are loosing bucket loads of cash renting the place.

Most new “investors” don’t do yield. They are in it for the capital appreciation. Oh dear!

#131 For those about to flop... on 01.07.18 at 10:13 pm

The other day I was looking at the y.o.y growth stats and the one that stuck out to me the most was West Vancouver.

It was up over 20% and I hadn’t found anything to corroborate this but attributed it to some heavy hitters cashing out that I had missed.

Today when I looked again there had been a wild swing.

Minus 41% for the month

Minus 20% yoy

Click on the word “Past” next to the word current and you’ll see what I’m talking about.

This more matches up with what I’m seeing ,but with only 18 sales in the last month of which only 8 were detached, I guess it is easily manipulated by one or two sales as we saw by a couple of 13/14m sales in Point Grey in the summer.

Sing it.

Wild Swing ,you make my heart sing…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/trends

#132 ben on 01.07.18 at 10:16 pm

Last one Garth. They have the same problem “over the pond”:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/dec/29/londoners-leaving-capital-for-brighton-birmingham-and-bristol

Normally they cut rates again but they are near zero. What next? A real mess. But the USA is raising so all the surrogate states must follow the leader, even if every step is killing them.

#133 Look Elsewhere on 01.07.18 at 10:17 pm

Those who think that Victoria and its surrounding communities are affordable are delusional, as Victoria has always been the second most expensive in Canada (before TO took the second spot in the last two years).

If you think Vancouver has no economy except building houses and growing weed, you should take a closer look at Victoria. Its average family income is even below Vancouver, and Vancouver has one of the lowest in the country – that tells you everything. It has always been a blue collar resource and government town, and the resource sector has been decimated. There are few well paying jobs and most people are ‘jacks of all trade’ to try to make ends meet.

Every other house has a suite – just like Vancouver – because local incomes alone cannot support prices. And houses are primarily character houses that consume an inordinate amount of ‘maintenance’ income. And since most rentals are owned by boomers, they ask ridiculous prices that are disconnected from incomes.

Traffic is brutal – the ‘Collwood crawl’ from the surrounding communities takes over an hour to get to downtown Victoria and the commute lasts twice as long as Vancouver’s. Throw in $200 a ferry ride for a small family to get off the Island. There is a reason why the young leave the Island while the aged

Victoria itself is brutally quiet if you are under 50 – its a city of the ‘newly dead’ that have all the time in the world to complain about every single micro issue.

There is a reason why the young leave the city and the Island….its an exodus point as well!

#134 Fake News Again on 01.07.18 at 10:20 pm

#34 Stan Brooks on 01.07.18 at 4:22 pm
#16 Fuzzy Camel on 01.07.18 at 3:16 pm
I’m seriously considering packing up shop and moving my family and my business down to the states.

This government has lost it’s mind and so have the fools who elected them. I’m tired of having Wynne and Trudeau ramming their rainbow flag agendas down my throat while they steal my money through feminist taxation policies.

Garth, you may want to start a blog about moving abroad from Canada.

These Liberals want everyone deep in debt, broke, living in a 400sq-ft condo, and gay. That’s right I said what needs to be said.

They don’t want us having families anymore. This is either a completely idiotic government or economic population control.

————————

It is both:

population control through idiotic government.

__________

Don’t confuse “idiotic” with CRIMINAL government. This is why Trump was elected and what he is trying to change.

#135 NoName on 01.07.18 at 10:23 pm

On my way to work and home l usually play podcasts, an dude on just sad in us with new year tax code advantage of owning a house vs renting for lots of people that file tax return is negotiable.

I kind of don’t get it because interest on mrtg is dedicated from income.

Anyone??

#136 Gary smith on 01.07.18 at 10:23 pm

28 I’m stupid on 01.07.18 at 4:03 pm

Good luck! We went through IVF to conceive our kids. Like you mentioned, we meandered through the entire spectrum of emotions-from despair to joy.

#137 Gravy Train on 01.07.18 at 11:18 pm

The average house costs $298,000 in Halifax…. — Garth

Garth, you forgot to mention the weather. The forecast high for this Tues. is 3 above; for Thurs., 6 above; for Fri., 8 above; for Sat., 2 above; for Sun., 3 above.

#138 American wanta-be’s on 01.07.18 at 11:22 pm

Just came back from an extended trip to the western US. Pretty polarized. Lots of people thought they’d just pack up and move to Canada when they’d had enough. Didn’t realize the Canadian government got a say in that. It’s not happy times there either.

Want to move? Be careful what you wish for – the grass isn’t any greener there.

#139 Entrepreneur on 01.07.18 at 11:22 pm

Harsh words #41 Vancourerless…sensitivitvity is not in your vocabulary. And harsh trying to survive in todays unrealistic housing prices. And harsh when our different levels of government ignore citizens complaints.

Moving is one solution but we all know that it is not the correct solution especially when many youth have left, ready to leave or looking to leave. Not good for the city.

And we are all hoping for a correction to bring normalcy back to what makes a community. Soon, as people are giving up as more time passes.

#140 Big Daddy on 01.07.18 at 11:27 pm

I agree, BC inc Van Isl and Interior is cooked, except for money laundering and corruption assets which still flood in despite all facts and reports from respected journals and police departments not to mention national governments who want their crooks and their money back. Our real estate cabal of sales represetatives , politicians and politically correct naysayers will deny….but….the truth is out there.

The local BC Assessments shoot down this ladies anecdotal dreams of Victoria to Kelowna and all points in between…..the assessments shows that those markets are also ablaze with speculation and property assessments are up 25 to 35% on average YOY.

Although , as shown, the local markets from Ottawa to Halifax, inc Montreal remain ‘affordable’ by comparison, they have still increased beyond the average persons ability to pay in a rising interest rate scenario. We tend to compare TO and Vanc insanity in order to conflate ‘less expensive elsewhere’….while that is not the case if rates bump even one percent.

But, do rates in Canada bounce…can they? Trudeau has forced well over 100 billion in new debt onto Canadians, exacerbating that by hiring hundreds of thousands of loyal voters from ethnic and religious blocs who desperately need him to stay on welfare and advance their ethnic and religious agendas now that integration is off the table as a Canadian standard. This government is bleeding cash on debt payments now….there is no foreign demand for Canadian dollars…..and this govt is paying shorts billions to salvage a crippled currency.

I know it’s frustrating to many who are foaming FOMO….buy remember, the market stays irrational until the majority of suckers are in the pool before bursting. The Canadian real estate market is baked, there will be a hard correction…..so be patient. Even ‘Superman’ won’t save the day of reckoning ….he’s set to fail.

#141 Lost...but not leased on 01.07.18 at 11:27 pm

Renters vs Landlords…

Renters can engage in pissing matches, but at the end of the day a “Landlord” has bought a property and provides a product/service based on market demand.

In decades past…Landlords were able to purchase properties based on a downpayment, and mortgage that was covered by the rent(give or take some further subsidy by landlord).

Ultimately….the fiscal difference between a “landlord” and “renter” was the downpayment…and many parties are not cut out to be landlords.

Nowadays….landlords are often placed in a no- win situation. The metrics no longer allow for an initial investment and a long term plan.

Solution?..Gov’t??
May suggest people do a GOOGLE search on “MURBS”, which appeared to be the FEDS last gasp attempt(early 1980’s)at encouraging the private sector to fund and build rental housing. It failed miserably…and likely made Gov’t gun shy to the present day.

#142 Mark on 01.07.18 at 11:36 pm

“But, do rates in Canada bounce…can they? Trudeau has forced well over 100 billion in new debt onto Canadians”

Categorically false. Easy to debunk by simply looking at the debt of the Government of Canada:

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/government-securities-auctions/goc-t-bills-and-bonds-outstanding/

Trudeau came to office in November, 2015 ($650B debt). The most recent debt figure, December 2017 is $690B. So $40B in additional debt over 2 years in office.

That’s actually a lower annualized increase in debt (ie: a deficit) than Harper ran, not even inflation adjusted, in his decade in office.

I know the hatred of Trudeau runs deep around here, but let’s stick with facts. Trudeau has been remarkably fiscally prudent relative to the previous government and its massive series of chronic deficits.

#143 Frank on 01.07.18 at 11:38 pm

I guess hindsight is always 20/20 isn’t it, Frank? And you have never made a bet you didn’t lose? Never bet wrong way, always win in Vegas etc ;) They’ve got to make the best decision they can given the cards they have now. Go ahead and beat them up for that.

Of course it’s not her fault she couldn’t predict the future. Who saw that coming? No blame there.

What I take umbrage with is the self-rationalization that they somehow made the better choice. No one on this planet says “Yeah I’m so glad I didn’t buy an asset which would have more than doubled and meets one of my essential needs, I’d hate to have more money”.

There’s no need for sour grapes but there’s also no need for lies.

#144 acdel on 01.07.18 at 11:39 pm

#143 American wanta-be’s

I am so glad you posted your observation/s; personally for me the U.S. would be the last place that I would move to; there are so many options out there that are safe and much more affordable; one needs to do there homework to where they are drawn to.

Good Post!

#145 Damifino on 01.07.18 at 11:47 pm

#131 Lost…but not leased

I was involved in clearing out my widowed MIL’s house in 2012 before she moved into a care home. She’d been living in the same large house almost 40 years. A small amount of ancient furniture was sold for very little. In all honesty, most of her stuff was junk anyway.

My advice to others in the same situation:

Be strong. Grab a few keepsakes, give craigslisters a few days to take away stuff for free, then rent a waste bin, if need be, and toss in the rest.

My wife’s mom has passed away since then. We remember her for the kind person she was, not the items that surrounded her in life.

But… we did keep one of her chairs. I often sit in it after dinner and remember her. It’s all we need. One day when we’re both gone that will probably end up in a bin too. We’re okay with it.

#146 Fortune500 on 01.08.18 at 12:21 am

#28 congratulations! It can be a long and lonely road (and financially difficult too) There are often few people who understand and many brush this off as a blip in life, but having gone 5 ivfs and no success over five years we can relate. Luckily for us it eventually worked out (and three kids later …). Anyways, good for you. Hope your enjoy the beautiful blessing and stage this is.

#147 Stan Brooks on 01.08.18 at 12:23 am

#41 Vancouverless on 01.07.18 at 4:37 pm
Stan Brooks,

I think it’s about time you put a gun in your mouth and ended it if the future is that bleak.

——————————

That is YOUR future I am talking about honey.
I already left and enjoying it.

Ignorance will not help you. Good luck, you will need it.

==========================

#138 Fake News Again on 01.07.18 at 10:20 pm
——————

It is both:

population control through idiotic government.

__________

Don’t confuse “idiotic” with CRIMINAL government. This is why Trump was elected and what he is trying to change.

————————
Looking at the leadership, I insist on idiotic.

Criminal is questionable definition these days, just look at the french villa, privatized laws, conflict of interest, lucky sellers, acknowledged ethical violators guys, CHMC, BOC.

They still rule and will accuse you of tax cheating or libel if you say they are corrupted.

Good luck in putting them in their place with the fancy Bay street and paid by our taxes government lawyers.

You can not look for logic/law in a mental institution.

#148 turn of the tide on 01.08.18 at 12:41 am

“#2 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.07.18 at 1:36 pm
Sounds to me like the real answer is getting the hell out of Canada.”

My friend you know not what you speak of. I think you’re severely misguided if you think leaving Canada is the answer.

I think the answer is leaving Vancouver, which I did, about 5 years ago (I was 34) and about 45% of our circle of friends also bailed. More left after we jumped ship. This poster’s exact scenario. Couples that had their 1st kid… game over. Bye bye. Most of the ones who tried to stay got divorced (I wish I was joking) the stress of grinding just to survive does not help people feel fuzzy inside.

BUT, equating Vancouver with the rest of Canada is yuge mistake. I’ve lived in and visited plenty of third world countries and I would not trade Canada for any country that I’ve visited thus far. I’ve lived in pretty awesome places too, like Honolulu for almost a decade.

The poster has a great point and I’ve been thinking the same thing, Vancouver is dying, even when we were living there we had already been hearing from the “older locals” for a while about how it’s no longer a fun city, with art and soul. Now it’s a shopping mall for concrete boxes and guess what, 90% of people can’t even afford that.

Leaving Vancouver is the best single decision we’ve made in the last 20 years. Be creative, think outside the box and outside of big cities, if you’re skilled you can be a “big fish in a small pond” and have a fantastic lifestyle.

As for Vancouver, my last words are: Rest In Peace the city of soullessness. Never once my wife and I felt like coming back. We’ve found our own perfect little paradise right here in the True North (but I’m not telling you where it is, you need to find yours).

Oh and did I mention that we’re renting a fabulous place with incredible views and enough space to grow a relaxed and well adjusted newborn baby born last December. Don’t believe the hype, unless you’re wealthy and your pastimes and eating at 5-star restaurants and blowing your cash on brand name stuff the city does not have much to offer to anyone in their 20s-30s IMHO.

#149 turn of the tide on 01.08.18 at 12:41 am

“#2 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.07.18 at 1:36 pm
Sounds to me like the real answer is getting the hell out of Canada.”

My friend you know not what you speak of. I think you’re severely misguided if you think leaving Canada is the answer.

I think the answer is leaving Vancouver, which I did, about 5 years ago (I was 34) and about 45% of our circle of friends also bailed. More left after we jumped ship. This poster’s exact scenario. Couples that had their 1st kid… game over. Bye bye. Most of the ones who tried to stay got divorced (I wish I was joking) the stress of grinding just to survive does not help people feel fuzzy inside.

BUT, equating Vancouver with the rest of Canada is yuge mistake. I’ve lived in and visited plenty of third world countries and I would not trade Canada for any country that I’ve visited thus far. I’ve lived in pretty awesome places too, like Honolulu for almost a decade.

The poster has a great point and I’ve been thinking the same thing, Vancouver is dying, even when we were living there we had already been hearing from the “older locals” for a while about how it’s no longer a fun city, with art and soul. Now it’s a shopping mall for concrete boxes and guess what, 90% of people can’t even afford that.

Leaving Vancouver is the best single decision we’ve made in the last 20 years. Be creative, think outside the box and outside of big cities, if you’re skilled you can be a “big fish in a small pond” and have a fantastic lifestyle.

As for Vancouver, my last words are: Rest In Peace the city of soullessness. Never once my wife and I felt like coming back. We’ve found our own perfect little paradise right here in the True North (but I’m not telling you where it is, you need to find yours).

Oh and did I mention that we’re renting a fabulous place with incredible views and enough space to grow a relaxed and well adjusted newborn baby born last December. Don’t believe the hype, unless you’re wealthy and your pastimes are eating at 5-star restaurants and blowing your cash on brand name stuff the city does not have much to offer to anyone in their 20s-30s IMHO.

#150 Allan Wilson on 01.08.18 at 12:44 am

Hey, that’s the same house I bought in Saskatchewan in 2006 for $40,000 on a 75 foot wide lot.

#151 Stan Brooks on 01.08.18 at 12:56 am

#39 Smoking Man on 01.07.18 at 4:33 pm
Just wait till the libtards build a wall to keep you and your money trapped in Kanuckstan.

—————————-

It is not your money.

95 % of the money are created as credit by the private banks, so they are owned to them, 5 % by the dudes/and gals at BOC.

And wild bill thinks it is his money as he taxes you to death.

Yours is just the debt.

#152 Bottoms_Up on 01.08.18 at 1:04 am

My neighbours with a bunch of kids left Vancouver a couple years ago, to move to a suburb of Ottawa. They paid $400k for a 4 bedroom next to a park, great schools, and easy commute to downtown. Leaving Vancouver was a no-brainer for them.

#153 Stan Brooks on 01.08.18 at 1:16 am

https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/multiple-tim-hortons-franchises-other-100000613.html

new minimum wage rolling out ‘successfully’.

#154 Timber on 01.08.18 at 1:19 am

I would pass on Victoria. It’s a congested city with prices out of touch with real incomes. Job demand is in low level jobs or real estate related construction /office jobs that are the first to go in a downturn. Major homeless problem as well in the downtown where most of the new condos are being built.

#155 LG on 01.08.18 at 1:20 am

@31 EB

MongoHouse.com

#156 TheSecretCode on 01.08.18 at 1:21 am

All of BC is cooked.

A little late, don’t you think?…the cattle drive started 4 years ago. I have property in both Metro Van and Kelowna.

Wait until you see the predatory rental rates in Kelowna. My rental property has had non-stop Vancouverites wanting to pay 2k for just the upper…however, as noted in in recent posts, the rental demand in Kelowna is starting to cool. I can still get 30-40 inquiries when listing (maybe 3-4 are good), but nothing like the craziness of last year, when rent rates jumped from 1400 to 2k and 300-500 people replied to my ad with about 15 very qualified tenants – at least on paper.

#157 Slippery cricket on 01.08.18 at 1:33 am

Americans want to move to Canada as they are fed up with their government….. Now Canadians want to move to the USA because we are fed up with our government……too funny. Sure lets all switch countries, that definitely is the solution.

#158 Smoking Man on 01.08.18 at 1:34 am

The lesbonic dream. Burn steletos and get the competition to hide there beautiful faces.

Go Iran woman. Fight for your right to be sexy.

#159 Exodus 2020 on 01.08.18 at 1:35 am

There’s a little selective bias in this post, at demonstrating investment in the market resulted in $250 liquid assets vs gaining $190k in condo appreciation not factoring in rental savings, and not acknowledging the savings (stock portfolio) began at the beginning of a huge bull market. Rewind a couple more years and their savings would have hit the market meltdown putting them in negative territory and their real estate opportunity would have been even cheaper. We can’t always look at stock portfolio’s beginning at the most opportune time.

#160 Dolce Vita on 01.08.18 at 1:41 am

Nice expansion on what I replied a few days ago to another Commenter, nicely said and expanded upon indeed Garth.

You forgot the wage differentials. That YVR piece of dung vs. Quebec (so true on the latter being pretty) is about $1.2 MM.

It will take a decade or more to make up $1.2 MM in savings for working Canadians, even the upper quintile.

You really have to hate the Winter to be willing to pay that much more for a home, out of your mind if you ask me.

As for the current RE Lottery winners in YVR, by mid-year I predict a 25% average price drop (yes, including those magical condos), by end of 2018 probably 45%. That will put a wet blanket on the self-proclaimed hubrous master investors that they think they are.

History will repeat, as it always does.

And no soft landing Garth, it has never happened in Cdn. RE and you know that.

Just look at 416 RE detached in the latter half of the year 2017 and the historical HPI since 1980.

RE crashes quickly and then continues to lose value for years, typically a 3 year crash period…followed by 10 years or so to recover the lost value.

#161 TheSecretCode on 01.08.18 at 1:43 am

If you are talking about Okanagan SFDs:

Take it from someone who has owned more than what you can count on one hand and has been on site province wide in over 3,000 homes.

Decent ones as of now…

Victoria – forget about it. It’s done.

Kelowna – 750k. Pretty much cooked.

Penticton – 650k. 33k population – brutal head on highway deaths in the winter due to single lane roads getting out of town…crazy black ice in the winter.

Try going to Salmon Arm – town of 17,000 people – there might be a job at 7/11 – 500K for the SFD.

Bought my first house in Van for under 500k – and that was affordable. Now it costs that much in Salmon Arm.

People go to these places in BC in the summer and think oh wow, so nice and affordable too.

There is zero economy if you are a working professional outside of the lower mainland – zero. You either work from anywhere on your PC in tech, have a gov job in the small pool of lucky ones or run a mom/pop business to try and make ends meet in these communities outside of the lower mainland. I see who shows up wanting to rent. And these people are hustling hard. BC has been completely wrecked for future non million air status people.

Now lets get into some other details you don’t see in the BS marketing of the Okanagan.

Common house spider in the Okanagan is the black widow – no joke, everwhere – this is a problem for dogs – heaven forbid you have a crawl space. When the hospitals and vets stock the antivenom you what is around.

Hiking in the hills – rattlesnakes. I hit up Knox Mountain hiking – not just one rattlesnake – you could hear thousands rattling over the whole hillside. No mistaking it. My friend got bit on the forearm hiking. Arm was swollen like crazy by the time he got to the hospital.

Air quality – brutal in the valleys, this is everywhere off the ocean / lower mainland – wait until summer fire season, then winter wood stove smoke – the air quality locks in…you choke year round. Vernon just had an air quality advisory last week. Why do you think that most kids grow up with Asthma in these communities?

Try Kamloops – all that crap air quality plus the pul mill for early cancer. Rotten eggs as far as Juniper Heights. You better believe it.

Extreme temperatures – Air Conditioning all summer (like you will die without it, unless in Fort St. John where Crusty Clark told broke BC people to move if they don’t like taking on suicidal debt loads for the Lower Mainland) and heat all winter – no break and this costs money.

Victoria and Vancouver have beautiful mild temps with clean ocean / salt air that healthy lungs love – fresh! All the pollution goes to Chilliwack.

Grass is not greener outside of Vancouver – if you want to jump somewhere inland and stay in the west…

CALGARY……period.

#162 d'Edmonton on 01.08.18 at 2:08 am

#139 NoName on 01.07.18 at 10:23 pm
On my way to work and home l usually play podcasts, an dude on just sad in us with new year tax code advantage of owning a house vs renting for lots of people that file tax return is negotiable.

I kind of don’t get it because interest on mrtg is dedicated from income.

Anyone??
—————————————–
– Interest deductability on mortgages reduced from $1M to $750K – may not impact most middle class homeowners

– HELOC interest deductability eliminated – This could impact many

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtodd/2017/12/28/the-modified-home-mortgage-interest-deduction/#e4e77ae6acfa

#163 morrey on 01.08.18 at 2:50 am

“Vancouver is pooched”. agree on that.

#164 Rooster on 01.08.18 at 7:46 am

#163 Smoking Man on 01.08.18 at 1:34 am

The lesbonic dream. Burn steletos and get the competition to hide there beautiful faces.

Go Iran woman. Fight for your right to be sexy.
*******

Confession:
I used to think like you before “Fear & Loathing…” – the book, not the movie. When I learned some of my friends were gay it changed my opinion of me.
Sexuality is not a choice, although religion is, except in theocracies.

Why do you need to dump on gays? Is it because they are more humorous than you? (they really are !). I don’t think the gay gene connects to the funny bone, it’s just how oppressed people adapt. Stop the oppression and you will seem funnier.

Is it because of your religion? ….Nah. Is it because of your experiences? Maybe the California Girls you meet are just pretending to be lesbians. Put that in your pipe.

#165 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.18 at 8:03 am

@#166 TheSecretCode.

True. All true.

#166 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.18 at 8:09 am

@#147 Mark.

“I know the hatred of Trudeau runs deep around here, but let’s stick with facts. Trudeau has been remarkably fiscally prudent relative to the previous government and its massive series of chronic deficits…..”
++++++

Are you completely thick or has the record setting cold affected your brain?

#167 jess on 01.08.18 at 8:13 am

The Ponzi scheme, first reported by assassinated journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia back in 2015, was allegedly run by Eloise Marie Corbin Klein, operating under a number of aliases. Daphne Caruana Galizia had reported her as having conned elderly Christians out of some $600,000 by posing as a missionary and convincing them to invest their savings into a bank account that ostensibly was to be used for an African mining project.

http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/court_and_police/83543/john_dallis_daughters_in_court_on_ponzi_scheme_charges

http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/national/77383/russian_billionaires_fast_loan_empire_uses_mal

#168 John Dough on 01.08.18 at 8:25 am

Thought I’d join the house Pride Parade. 30 years in the same rural shack that cost the same as 3 pickup trucks then. Spent 4 more pickup trucks and much blood, sweat and toil making it livable. No granite, only extravagance was a tin roof. Now worth maybe 6-8 new pickup trucks depending on the fool. Lots of holidays and kid’s education paid. Many of my friends that moved up, separated. Now I have enough free time to start writing my book “Low Expectations”.

#169 maxx on 01.08.18 at 8:28 am

“The city’s quality of life is fading as its citizens become property junkies…..”

Vancouver junkies, junkies everywhere…..sounds like addiction central…………what a sick mindset.

#170 dharma bum on 01.08.18 at 8:58 am

#6 Stan Brooks

I am sorry to break it to you Joan but housing is the least of your problems.
——————————————————————–

“Life is tough, then you die.”

― George Carlin

#171 Steven Rowlandson on 01.08.18 at 9:05 am

“Get out of Dodge. Bring your mittens.”
On the contrary it might be bring your sombrero and your English – Spanish dictionary The risk is a major glaciation.

#172 Steven Rowlandson on 01.08.18 at 9:21 am

“Yours is just the debt.”

Nope! My name is not on Canada’s Treasury Bonds.
The problem belongs to the politicians that voted for all those deficits and the laws mandating all of the spending. It is all their fault not mine. They had a say in the matter and they operated on their own without any real consent of the governed. Voting for politicians is not consent to be put into debt slavery or for the government to turn the country into a whore house or worse.

#173 WTF is exidouse? on 01.08.18 at 9:24 am

#39 Smoking Man on 01.07.18 at 4:33 pm
Just wait till the libtards build a wall to keep you and your money trapped in Kanuckstan.
That’s what happens, mass exidouse when communism takes hold. The young brownshirts cheering the min wage will be going door to door soon to kill you and steal your money.
Get out now!!!!
Weed is pretty good in California.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
That’s it “weed is pretty good in California” You do realize that your comments on communism and brown-shirts are two opposing ideologies. Communism is a political theory derived from Karl Marx, advocating class war and leading to a society in which all property is publicly owned and each person works and is paid according to their abilities and needs.
The Brown-shirts were members of an early Nazi militia founded by Hitler in Munich in 1921, with brown uniforms resembling that of Mussolini’s Black-Shirts. They aided Hitler’s rise to power, but were eclipsed by the SS after the “night of the long knives” in June 1934. Hitler was anything but a communist. Under Hitler’s rule as a dictator, Germany was transformed into a totalitarian state in which the Nazi Party controlled nearly all aspects of life. If you wish to have a tête-à-tête about something that you appear to be knowledgeable on then stick with “weed, your lack of education and last your deprived psychological state” Those items you appear to be an expert on.

#174 Stan Brooks on 01.08.18 at 9:27 am

#166 TheSecretCode on 01.08.18 at 1:43 am

Calgary and Montreal.

The rest of the country is completely un-affordable from from income/housing cost perspective.

This is why I mentioned Minnesota, Texas, Wurope, Asia, hell, even Switzerland and Singapore is more affordable in terms of cost of housing when compared to net income.

————————-

#175 dharma bum on 01.08.18 at 8:58 am
#6 Stan Brooks

I am sorry to break it to you Joan but housing is the least of your problems.
——————————————————————–

“Life is tough, then you die.”

― George Carlin

Yes, hi did.

Life can be beautiful, it is your choice.
You don’t have to live it miserably.

Cheerios.

#175 Steven Rowlandson on 01.08.18 at 9:33 am

You can not look for logic/law in a mental institution.

That sounds about right. So Canada is more like a lunatic asylum. If it is, it is being run by the patients and their gang leaders and the doctors and guards have been banished or locked in a rubber room.

#176 Steven Rowlandson on 01.08.18 at 9:37 am

Life can be beautiful, it is your choice.
You don’t have to live it miserably.

Yes you do if you are paid too little and charged too much.
2+2 does =4

#177 Halifax??? on 01.08.18 at 10:02 am

#142 Gravy Train on 01.07.18 at 11:18 pm
The average house costs $298,000 in Halifax…. — Garth

Garth, you forgot to mention the weather. The forecast high for this Tues. is 3 above; for Thurs., 6 above; for Fri., 8 above; for Sat., 2 above; for Sun., 3 above.

————————————————————————–

Oh yeah the weather in Halifax is awesome. It’s known worldwide as a climatic Paradise… Please give your head a shake.

Is $298,000 supposed to be unattractive price to live in Halifax? Absolutely ridiculous as it shouldn’t even be half that. We’ve lost our minds in Canada when every s******* town in this country compares their real estate pricing to the insanity of the GTA and Vancouver. Windsor is not a good buy at the prices stated in Garth’s post. The prices have gone up exponentially even there.

I agree with one of the other posters, get the hell out of this country.

The words of someone who has not travelled the country nor spent time in great cities like Halifax, Montreal or Ottawa. Shocking how provincial most people are. – Garth

#178 Stan Brooks on 01.08.18 at 10:12 am

#177 Steven Rowlandson on 01.08.18 at 9:21 am

You are taxpayer so you are on the hook for the debt. Debt is paid by taxpayers, not by politicians.

———————

#181 Steven Rowlandson on 01.08.18 at 9:37 am
Life can be beautiful, it is your choice.
You don’t have to live it miserably.

Yes you do if you are paid too little and charged too much.
2+2 does =4
————————
It could 5 + 5 = 10
Get some decent education and find less greedy tax sovereign.

The world is big and it is shiny out there/but not in T2 land.

#179 millmech on 01.08.18 at 10:33 am

#141
Testicular fortitude has nothing to do with it, I could easily buy the house I am renting a suite in(for cash) but the numbers do not make sense at this time.
Math is easy, house is currently valued over $800,000, landlord charges me low rate(tired of bad tenants, I pay a year upfront) for rent, portfolio return last year was mid 20%, cash(flow) is king.
I make way more off my portfolio than I do working, no stress, can retire when ever I want, beholden to no one.
Funny though, I mentioned how our plant was having a one week shutdown and how people were freaking out about losing one weeks pay, a lot of them are landlords, can not fathom how they would not like to have a week off.

#180 Stan Brooks on 01.08.18 at 10:41 am

It was beautiful (work at Sears and retirement) and now is gone.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/much-apos-happily-ever-apos-103000851.html

Note: these were the ‘good old’ defined benefit plans that our financial minister would like to eliminate completely/replace with target plans that his company will administer.

Retirement is basically becoming mission impossible.
It will hit you most likely when you have no options and no chance to fight/adapt.

#181 Victor V on 01.08.18 at 11:03 am

Companies remain optimistic about future sales: Bank of Canada

https://www.bnn.ca/companies-remain-optimistic-about-future-sales-bank-of-canada-1.961851

Canadian companies remain optimistic about future sales despite some moderation from highs, and signs of capacity pressures and labour shortages have picked up, the Bank of Canada said on Monday in a survey that reinforces expectations for a rate hike.

#182 abros on 01.08.18 at 11:03 am

Don’t come to Victoria. Tear down is now a million buck unless you live in the West Shore which is now 1.5 hour commute both ways.

#183 crossbordershopper on 01.08.18 at 11:05 am

people pay 2 grand a month to have someone look after their kid. how much do some juice boxes cost? thats crazy. much cheaper in the USA. since you can only deduct what 7 grand, the rest you cant. what a scam. welcome to canada

#184 ben on 01.08.18 at 11:12 am

> Renters don’t have the money to buy it. Even if they did, they wouldn’t have the balls if they read this blog everyday.

Another person who doesn’t understand how prices are set in a market.

Their existence as speculators effects the price.

Regarding “the balls”. Grow up.

#185 chapter 9 on 01.08.18 at 11:14 am

#147 Mark
Trudeau has been remarkably fiscally prudent………

Sock boy is on track to increase per person federal debt more than any other PM in Canadian history who didn’t face a world war or economic crisis. Justin suffers from the same chronic disease that his father had “libtardation”

#186 MediOgre on 01.08.18 at 11:19 am

To Garth’s readers,
Today we can apply for the $25 card from Loblaws. I just did. I intend to receive this money and donate it to people that need it. I implore you all to do the same, spread the word and show we do not accept this gouging of the Canadian people.

I’m not sure why big banks/big oil and telecoms have not been included in this consumer reconciliation. I think the timing of the 10 GB price war between or big telecoms was convenient….

#187 MediOgre on 01.08.18 at 11:20 am

http://www.loblawcard.ca

#188 Halifax??? on 01.08.18 at 11:38 am

The words of someone who has not travelled the country nor spent time in great cities like Halifax, Montreal or Ottawa. Shocking how provincial most people are. – Garth

————————————————————-

That is where you are wrong kind sir . The business I own takes me can you at least 10 Canadian cities and the pile of small towns in between each year from coast to coast. I always personally feel that the real estate prices are ridiculous when one considers lifestyle and job opportunities let alone climate and lack of culture. And believe me I’m not impressed with the GTA or Vancover as well. Having said that when can we expect Turner Investments to move the Moncton or Flin Flon? ;)

#189 Luc on 01.08.18 at 11:38 am

The only way to get rich ???? https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/01/04/massive-new-data-set-suggests-inequality-is-about-to-get-even-worse/?utm_term=.2dce878c8855

#190 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 11:43 am

#25 BlorgDorg on 01.07.18 at 3:55 pm

The real problem is the cost of childcare: at $1500/month (or more) in Toronto, 2 or more young kids eat an entire income rapidly. Not to mention the dwindling families mean the schools within the 416 are getting shut down (and probably turned into condos).
________________________

Does no one have family or in-laws close by anymore? I see many folks beefing about the cost of child care – there was little said in the media when I had my kids regarding CC costs.

IIRC, the wife had mat leave, then worked part time, my folks would have a day, and the in laws would have a day. Done deal easy as pie. When the kiddies were in school full time, we got after school care with a retired couple who did just this for 1 day a week, got off the bus at in laws for 3 days, got off at home 1 day a week.

#191 Victor V on 01.08.18 at 11:44 am

Companies’ optimism ‘green light’ for Bank of Canada rate hike: Tal

https://www.bnn.ca/companies-optimism-green-light-for-bank-of-canada-rate-hike-tal-1.961851

The results were released a little more than a week before the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement. CIBC Capital Markets Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal believes the survey gives Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz the final incentive he needed to raise rates.

“The Bank of Canada has the green light now,” Tal told BNN in an interview on Monday. “They are going to raise interest rates this month.”

“We’ve got a very strong labour market. We basically create 100,000 jobs over the course of breakfast on the one hand. Then we had the October GDP number [which was] not great. So, you needed something else, and that something else is this survey.”

#192 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 11:52 am

Joan is my kind of Woman. I’d do the same thing, run the numbers and call it as it is. Who cares what the fate of YVR will be? If YVR has nothing to offer, it has nothing to offer – Joan is just ahead of the rest of ’em with figuring this out.

IMHO, there is nowhere on Earth worth living paycheque to paycheck with no peace of mind for tomorrow. Living debt free with a pile in the bank is freedom and independence. It’s one of the most valuable things one can gain. You don’t need to live in any particular city, you don’t need to do any particular job. It’s there for anyone with a plan to succeed and making smart decisions about spending and debt.

Joan and hubby look to be on the right track IMHO.

#193 For those about to flop... on 01.08.18 at 11:54 am

Somebody give me some credit…

M43BC

“Mapping States with the Best and Worst Credit Scores and their Household Income

A good credit score is essential for every major financial decision. Buying a house, getting a car loan, and even getting hired all depend on maintaining a score. And perhaps the most obvious predictor of credit worthiness is whether the applicant has a high income with a steady track record of employment. With so much riding on a single number, we decided to compare average credit scores across the country and weight the results by median income levels.

We gathered our data from two different places. We used average credit score numbers from the VantageScore system. We color-coded each state according to the average credit score of people living there: states with high numbers were colored shades of green, and states with low scores became red and pink. We also took median household income numbers from theU.S. Census Bureau, allowing us to adjust the size of each state. Analyzing credit scores and income data in this way allows us to see a couple interesting trends in the economy.

Three large groups of similar states are immediately obvious on the map. There’s a group of green states stretching from the Northwest across the Northern Great Plains, all the way to the Great Lakes. All of these states have similar credit scores over 685 and decent-sized incomes, with Minnesotans in the lead with a score of 722 and a median income of $63,217. There’s another pocket of rich states in the Northeast, the richest being Massachusetts at 706 and $70,954. And finally, there’s a large group of states across the Deep South where people on average have very bad credit scores. Mississippians post the worst scores in the country (648) and make comparatively less on average ($40,528). In other words, our map quickly demonstrates which parts of the country are enjoying an economic expansion, and which places are struggling.

The more income people have, the better their credit scores are. This makes intuitive sense because a good income consistently pays the bills. Looking at our map, the Deep South is obviously the poorest region in the country, and the states there have the lowest credit scores. The same trend stretches across some of the old Rust Belt states, particularly Michigan ($50,803), Ohio ($50,674) and Indiana ($50,433). States right next door probably have similar living expenses, but people have median incomes of about $4,000 more. That makes it much easier to make ends meet.

A few exceptions prove the rule. Alaskans enjoy some of the highest incomes in the country thanks to oil ($74,444) and the average score is 675, but the state is completely different from the rest of the country. Nevada (think: Las Vegas) which has a median income of $53,094 but an average score of just 657. Remember, the house always wins!

Here’s a list off the top ten states according to the average credit score of the people living there, together with the median household income.

1. Minnesota: 722 and $63,217

2. North Dakota: 713 and $59,114

3. Vermont: 713 and $56,104

4. New Hampshire: 712 and $68,485

5. South Dakota: 711 and $52,078

6. Wisconsin: 710 and $54,610

7. Iowa: 708 and $54,570

8. Massachusetts: 706 and $70,954

9. Washington: 704 and $62,848

10. Hawaii: 702 and $71,977

It’s no surprise that higher incomes are correlated with better credit scores. But it’s worth pointing out that the two aren’t perfectly aligned. People in Washington D.C. enjoy a median income of almost $73,000, but their credit scores are worse than Iowans, who make less than $55,000. That’s because there are a lot of other reasons behind credit worthiness, namely, the individual decisions people make every day with their money. Still, the extra few thousand dollars doesn’t hurt either.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/credit-scores-income-america

#194 Doug in London on 01.08.18 at 11:54 am

Sell the place and cash in that winning lottery ticket NOW, then leave Vancouver behind in the rear view mirror.

#195 Ace Goodheart on 01.08.18 at 11:56 am

Spent a few hrs over the weekend digging around for equities bargains. Two that stuck out as being ridiculously under priced are Toyota (TM) and Molson Coors (TAP). Doing more digging this week. Ran the metrics on those two and looks pretty amazing. Of course this is foolish not to be relied on internet prattling as usual. Cheers!

#196 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 12:00 pm

#147 Mark on 01.07.18 at 11:36 pm

That’s actually a lower annualized increase in debt (ie: a deficit) than Harper ran, not even inflation adjusted, in his decade in office.
_______

I know you like to fiddle with what deficits and debt are in order make T2 look fiscally responsible – no problem.

But, before the curtain rises and and the show begins, the boring fact of the matter is that Harper had the deficit down to 941 Million Oct 2015 before he was booted out the door. The PBO confirms the same, you can look it up if you are actually interested in real facts.

But, since I’ve corrected you on this with links about 65 times now, only to see you regurgitating the same tripe again and again, I doubt actual facts are important to you – the show must go on…

#197 Frances on 01.08.18 at 12:08 pm

Stan Brooks has it right. Unless you and your partner are both heart surgeons making 300k/year or are set with high-paying government jobs with big pensions, or have super rich parents, it is going to be very difficult to raise children in the GTA or Vancouver and not go into debt along the way. I have a friend in the GTA who recently had her first baby, and she and her husband are already planning on their second. They both make around 75-80k each and they don’t have much saved. I mentioned to her that daycare is $1,800/month in Toronto, and she said, ‘no way is it that much!’. They haven’t even looked into it and they are already planning their second? I have another friend who just had her second. She and her husband rent, she is on mat leave and he works in non profit. This is the reality for most of my friends in their mid-30s, pregnant with their second kid, no savings, decent enough jobs but not decent enough to get ahead, somehow not stressed about daycare and just planning on buckling down and being broke for the next few years. They seem ‘happy’ right now, but I worry for their future.

I on the other hand haven’t 100% decided if I want kids or not, but every time I crunch the numbers the math tells me to rent, hold off on having kids, retire early and just enjoy life on my own terms. The old model that the boomers encouraged us to follow just isn’t working, and I’m intrigued by the possibility of taking a different path, one of financial freedom, less financial stress overall and not having to worry for my kids’ futures.

#198 Victor V on 01.08.18 at 12:12 pm

Bank of Canada’s business survey builds case for rate hike next week: All six big banks now predicting central bank will raise rate on Jan. 17

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/update-1-bank-of-canada-q4-business-survey-eases-capacity-pressure-up

CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld said the bank’s business outlook survey was the last piece of the puzzle for a rate hike this month.

“The results are in, and they are more than good enough,” Shenfeld said in a note. “Overall, enough in here on the plus side to cement the case for a rate hike later this month.”

The Bank of Montreal, the only Canadian bank not predicting a Jan. 17 rate hike last week, changed it forecast after seeing the survey Monday.

“The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly Business Outlook Survey is healthy enough to convince us that the Bank is likely to hike rates as early as next week’s decision,” said chief economist Douglas Porter.

#199 aa5 on 01.08.18 at 12:14 pm

#197 IHCTD9

That is the way I look at it too. Would you rather $200,000 in the bank and renting, or being a home owner with 20% down on a million dollar house.

Even if I thought it quite likely that house prices would rise, I would still be a renter and keep the $200,000 in cash as it is real freedom in the here and now.

Job loss, illness, unexpected expenses.. the money gives you time and options to deal with problems.

Where I can see home ownership in expensive cities, is once a person gets enough wealth that the house is only a part of their assets.

#200 Fuzzy Camel on 01.08.18 at 12:23 pm

#101 KLNR on 01.07.18 at 7:57 pm
“Go for it, leave. you’d be doing Canada a favour lol.”

—————–

Those jobs will become American not Canadian. This uniquely ignorant Canadian attitude that businesses leaving is doing Canada a favour will come back to haunt Canadians when they can’t find a job or get the services they need.

#201 BlorgDorg on 01.08.18 at 12:24 pm

#195 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 11:43 am

Does no one have family or in-laws close by anymore? IIRC, the wife had mat leave, then worked part time, my folks would have a day, and the in laws would have a day. Done deal easy as pie.
________________________

Our situation is similar, but my parents are dead, part time is not an option for my wife (though eg. quitting to stay home full-time is), and the in-laws aren’t retired yet (in their 60s with no pensions and a mortgage on a detached in the 905). To be clear, I’m not beefing; we’ll make it work, and probably without going the daycare route. But it won’t be as simple as your arrangement was.

My point is just as Garth says: that there are serious social/cultural changes being precipitated by the distortions in real estate. Everyone seems to focus on the financial part, but it’s more than just dollars. Opportunity has a cost too, whether it’s work or childcare.

#202 LivinLarge on 01.08.18 at 12:31 pm

“Does no one have family or in-laws close by anymore?” good Lord no. The “family” you speak of are all livin’ the high life now. They sold their 4 bdr SFH and bought the condo and now they travel an cruise the entire year.

Extended nuclear families have been gone from the wild for 25+ years.

#203 Dmitry on 01.08.18 at 12:35 pm

“Our landlord is a sketchy dude who randomly says the owners are thinking of selling at least once a year, not the kind of stress we feel we deserve after 4.5 years of paying rent to these jerks.”

—————————-

Teach landlord a lesson – move out!
Or stop bashing and be thankful your rent is not double of what you’re paying now or the apartment is still not sold to a real jerk landlord.

#204 Igor on 01.08.18 at 12:38 pm

Thanks for the great article! It is just in time for me as I am in similar situation, live in Vancouver, salary well above average, but I feel like I am wasting all my money on crazy rent, with no prospects of getting anything bigger or just simply cheaper.
Thinking of moving out of YVR, the only real thing is holding me here is a very very good job.

#205 Tony on 01.08.18 at 12:41 pm

Re: #201 Victor V on 01.08.18 at 12:12 pm

I’ll mark that one down on the calendar. Poloz will never raise interest rates.

#206 Tony on 01.08.18 at 12:48 pm

Re: #200 Ace Goodheart on 01.08.18 at 11:56 am

Don’t read this article on Zero Hedge:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-08/its-officially-biggest-bubble-all-time#comment-10965145

#207 millmech on 01.08.18 at 1:16 pm

#166
The biggest issue up in the Okanagan that is never talked about is crime, I believe Penticton and Vernon are in the top ten for crime per capita across Canada.
Castanet featured a house on Winnipeg Street in Penticton, nice neighbors.
If you buy up there go to the police station and get the local crime stats, some areas up there Whalley of the Valley.

#208 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 1:17 pm

#182 Halifax??? on 01.08.18 at 10:02 am

Is $298,000 supposed to be unattractive price to live in Halifax? Absolutely ridiculous as it shouldn’t even be half that. We’ve lost our minds in Canada when every s******* town in this country compares their real estate pricing to the insanity of the GTA and Vancouver. Windsor is not a good buy at the prices stated in Garth’s post. The prices have gone up exponentially even there.
______________________________

Keep in mind the S******e towns will have prices well below the average. That 1.5 Mil YVR heap Garth posted above would probably sell for 60K MAXIMUM in the small town I work in. That’s a 291.00/month mortgage payment at 3.25%, that’s less than a car payment.

Think of what a couple could do even if both worked at the soon to be new min wage of 15.00hr. They would net approx. 4,000.00/month and have about 3500.00 left over after mortgage + misc.

I’ll bet there are many couples in YVR/GTA that do not have 3500.00 cash left over after paying the mortgage every month.

#209 Rob Nelson on 01.08.18 at 1:24 pm

If you think that renting in Vancouver makes for a “less tressed life,” you’ve never lived and rented in Vancouver. Everything — everything — is for sale, all the time, and rents are extortonately high. There is no security; a common tactic is for landlords to inisst on a one year, fixed term lease — which means that at the end of the year, another, new lease must be executed, almost always at a significantly higher cost to the renter. (This is how they get around BC rent controls, which tie increases to inflation.) Hardly a panacea, and definitley not stress-free.

#210 75 foot on 01.08.18 at 1:53 pm

#155 Allan Wilson
Hey, that’s the same house I bought in Saskatchewan in 2006 for $40,000 on a 75 foot wide lot.

A spacious lot seems nice at first glance.

Until you realise that the tighter you are packed, the more service/commerce/entertainment you will find within walking distance.

Large residential lots make for a poor base for opening up a corner store, a pub or a community centre. When was the last time you strolled in your neighbourhood and bumped into neighbours?

#211 Stan Brooks on 01.08.18 at 2:24 pm

#210 Tony on 01.08.18 at 12:41 pm
Re: #201 Victor V on 01.08.18 at 12:12 pm

I’ll mark that one down on the calendar. Poloz will never raise interest rates.

————————–

Oh, he will, he will, but inflation will outpace rates big time.

Buy lubricant companies as people on fixed income will be screwed.

=====================

#214 Rob Nelson on 01.08.18 at 1:24 pm
If you think that renting in Vancouver makes for a “less tressed life,” you’ve never lived and rented in Vancouver. Everything — everything — is for sale, all the time, and rents are extortonately high. There is no security; a common tactic is for landlords to inisst on a one year, fixed term lease — which means that at the end of the year, another, new lease must be executed, almost always at a significantly higher cost to the renter. (This is how they get around BC rent controls, which tie increases to inflation.) Hardly a panacea, and definitley not stress-free.
———————–

Stress free? In Canada?

What an oxymoron.

#212 Ace Goodheart on 01.08.18 at 2:25 pm

RE: #211 Tony on 01.08.18 at 12:48 pm

Re: #200 Ace Goodheart on 01.08.18 at 11:56 am

Don’t read this article on Zero Hedge:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-08/its-officially-biggest-bubble-all-time#comment-10965145

Thanks, I have had a look at that stuff. I don’t buy markets, I buy companies.

Run the metrics on TM or TAP when you have the chance.

I just look at valuations that don’t make sense, and purchase accordingly. As a great person once said, one of the keys to successful investing is a talent for noticing mis-priced securities.

#213 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 2:26 pm

#209 Igor on 01.08.18 at 12:38 pm

Thinking of moving out of YVR, the only real thing is holding me here is a very very good job.
______________________________________

Igor, I bought a house years ago, where I live – not in YVR/GTA. House cost about 2.5X my individual nothing special career income at the time.

You are wanting to buy in YVR circa 2018

Are you being paid 1.2 million per year?

If not – your job ain’t that good. Don’t move to the GTA, your job won’t be that good there either.

Working hard to make a pile of money is an utter waste of time if you don’t get to keep any of it.

#214 Lorne on 01.08.18 at 2:31 pm

#214 Rob Nelson
If you think that renting in Vancouver makes for a “less tressed life,” you’ve never lived and rented in Vancouver. Everything — everything — is for sale, all the time, and rents are extortonately high. There is no security; a common tactic is for landlords to insist on a one year, fixed term lease — which means that at the end of the year, another, new lease must be executed, almost always at a significantly higher cost to the renter. (This is how they get around BC rent controls, which tie increases to inflation.) Hardly a panacea, and definitley not stress-free.
………
Perhaps in the past, but the NDP have closed that loophole:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/b-c-moves-to-stop-landlords-from-flipping-tenants-hiking-rent-between-leases-1.3651101

#215 Ace Goodheart on 01.08.18 at 2:33 pm

Re: rate hikes: As usual, there is a silver lining to this. The Canadian dollar is going up, and there are a number of really good buys in the US equities markets right now.

Interesting thing also happening in the US right now is that all of the major house markets are experiencing percentage value increases. Everyone is working, people are out getting mortgages and buying houses, and what do you know, American Banks are in line to do very well in 2018 because people are borrowing again.

It seems to be the usual bathtub situation. Tip all the water away from one side, and it ends up on the other side, almost like magic.

#216 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 2:34 pm

#207 LivinLarge on 01.08.18 at 12:31 pm

Extended nuclear families have been gone from the wild for 25+ years.
________

That’s too bad, where else can you get day care for free, yet have the un-paid caregivers jostle to get more time with the clientele the following week? :)

#217 Lost...but not leased on 01.08.18 at 2:36 pm

#151 rental property math

Wow….being a landlord (in Ontario)sounds brutal. I

IMHO, gov’ts simply download the housing issue onto the private sector, given they seemed to have washed their hands of any practical solution.

Since MURBS collapse in early 1980’s…the gov’t were so far behind on just pent-up demand for housing….but made worse with their fiscal policies which favoured speculation.

#218 SimplyPut7 on 01.08.18 at 2:50 pm

#196 Victor V on 01.08.18 at 11:44 am

I’m pretty sure this Tal went on Simply Real Estate on Newstalk1010 and said rates were not going to rise until March.

He also said there would be no early rates increase on these sites as well:

“Won’t Rise Until Late 2017 – Then Slowly:”

http://www.rew.ca/news/interest-rates-won-t-rise-until-late-2017-then-slowly-cibc-chief-economist-1.2220279

‘As for interest rates, Tal sees the Bank of Canada possibly moving twice in 2018 but he believes it’s likely we’ll see less than that—and maybe even no rate increases at all.’

http://www.moneysense.ca/spend/real-estate/mortgages/how-interest-rate-hikes-will-affect-canadian-homebuyers-in-2018/

I just wish all the “experts” would admit their guess is as good as mine. There are a lot of novice home-buyers who would not have bought in the last 2 years, if they thought rates were going to rise quickly. For greedy speculators, I don’t care if they get burned by this, but there are people who blindly trusted their bank/private lender, realtor, the “experts” about what to expect next in the current housing cycle (e.g. house prices will go up, rates won’t rise).

There’s no bailout coming for these people, if they have trouble paying their mortgage/HELOC at the higher rate, they are on their own.

#219 LivinLarge on 01.08.18 at 3:10 pm

“To all those who constantly threaten to pack up and leave Canada, for whatever reason, just go already.”…but to where? There are precious few locations accepting new residents with open arms these days. Getting permanent work visas in any decent jurisdiction is next to impossible so only the retired are even welcomed at all and then inly for 5-6 months in a year without having to buy into the local healthcare system.

I live outside Canada for 5 months each year because I can and because I like the other place but I’m retired and not a threat to the local jobless problem.

#220 IHCTD9 on 01.08.18 at 3:29 pm

#204 aa5 on 01.08.18 at 12:14 pm
#197 IHCTD9

Job loss, illness, unexpected expenses.. the money gives you time and options to deal with problems.

____________________

Excellent point made here too. Indeed, money gives you time and options you would not have had otherwise.

Also, when you become elderly, money can buy you independence for a while longer. It can keep you from becoming a burden on others. I understand this is a big deal with seniors.

Money also allows you to have a large helping impact in other peoples lives. I know a few rich generous folks who have given LARGE sums anonymously to help some folks who where in serious financial trouble. We’re talking about the kind of help that makes the recipients re-evaluate humanity. I’d love to anonymously help folks occasionally in this manner someday, it’ll just have to be on a smaller scale!

I also keep my aging parents in mind when investing. Of my siblings, only one other than me could help financially with whatever comes down the pipe.

#221 oncebittwiceshy on 01.08.18 at 3:34 pm

My oh my, I guess we’re going to find out just how many Canadians have over leveraged themselves. This article is from 2016, prior to the first rate increases.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/debt/it-wont-take-much-to-drive-canadian-borrowers-over-the-edge-new-study-says

“A new study out Tuesday from credit agency TransUnion shows that of the 26 million credit-active Canadians in the country, 718,000 can’t absorb a 25-basis point increase or they won’t have enough cash flow to cover their debts. Raise rates one percentage point, something not likely to happen overnight, and 971,000 Canadians end up in a cash crunch.”

#222 For those about to flop... on 01.08.18 at 3:44 pm

Hey Lost,I just went back on the Twitter feed you set me up with and they had a Possible Pinkie that I was going to put in that particular folder.

According to zolo ,it sold 26 days ago and they had a bit of wiggle room but I will still follow it and find out what it went for.

7200 Lucas Rd ,Richmond

Paid 2.07 July 2017

Asking 2.38

Sold on December 13th 2017 for???

They might have gotten just enough to be considered a Pink Draw.

Thanks again,it is now another tool to look for a greater fool…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/7200-lucas-road

#223 Penny Henny on 01.08.18 at 3:57 pm

#139 NoName on 01.07.18 at 10:23 pm
On my way to work and home l usually play podcasts, an dude on just sad in us with new year tax code advantage of owning a house vs renting for lots of people that file tax return is negotiable.

I kind of don’t get it because interest on mrtg is dedicated from income.

Anyone??

//////////////////////

I think you can claim the mortgage or you can claim a set deduction or tax credit.

#224 Lost...but not leased on 01.08.18 at 3:57 pm

Re Victoria BC

We were on the Island a few weeks back and stayed downtown, near Empress Hotel.

With a great view of the city skyline, I only saw (2) skycranes…aka literally non -existent.

We drove around the City and to U Vic..very few new homes in these wealthier areas. Drove through various SFH neighbourhoods, again very few new homes.

The greater Victoria area seems quite the contrast compared to Metro Vancouver.

Anybody able to explain?

#225 Lara on 01.08.18 at 4:36 pm

Seriously….reading these comments you’d think there were no other places worthy to live in Canada than T.O. & Vancouver. How about the beautiful maritimes.

#226 NoName on 01.08.18 at 4:41 pm

#228 Penny Henny on 01.08.18 at 3:57 pm
#167 d’Edmonton on 01.08.18 at 2:08 am

I played podcasts (some portions) again, it boils down to that more people from now on will do simple tax return now vs before itemized tax return. Here is the podcast, you can skip 1st 7min.

https://moneyfortherestofus.com/186-pay-taxes/

On a side note, in same podcasts dude mentions what happened last time corp. Had tax repatriation “holiday” according to him 75¢ of each dollar went to share buyback, 15¢ to divideds, and i’m guessing rest went to tax and bonuses…

#227 JRT on 01.08.18 at 4:41 pm

#166
I live in the south Okanagan and you are totally right. If you want to visit the Okanagan, go to the American side. They don’t have the big lakes, but their small towns have many heritage buildings, the people are friendly and the motels are affordable even in the summer. Omak is the largest town with around 3K people. Roads are good and they have many small beautiful lakes which are not crowded like on the Canadian side. Just do not go over the speed limit. BTW, gas and organic is cheap compared to the Canadian side.

#228 Lost...but not leased on 01.08.18 at 5:21 pm

#227 flop
No problem..glad to assist..you provide great info.

Interesting re: the Twitter feed on CorruptGregor note purchase prices in 2017..then flip attempts a few months later..

These purchasers look like they got caught up as THE greater fools and simply want to cut their losses. The purchasers that are left will have sharp pencils and start vultching.

#229 Igor on 01.08.18 at 5:21 pm

Working hard to make a pile of money is an utter waste of time if you don’t get to keep any of it.
—————-
100% agree with you, IHCTD9.
It’s not how much you get, but how much you keep is what matters. My job is nowhere even remotely close to 1.2M as you mentioned in your reply, so my mind is set to look for alternatives :)

#230 I’m stupid on 01.08.18 at 5:24 pm

Thank you for all for the well wishes.

#231 conan on 01.08.18 at 5:24 pm

Lots of blog talk of people wanting to leave Canada. Seems to be Harper Conservative peeps smart enough to read the writing on the wall for 2019.

Don’t let the door………………….

#232 TurnerNation on 01.08.18 at 5:34 pm

#200 Ace Goodheart on 01.08.18 I mentioned TAP.US here 2 weeks ago have been in it since, target 86-88 then I’m out.

#233 Westcoaster on 01.08.18 at 5:48 pm

Interesting post but it’s not realistic for the average family to uproot and move to the east coast – an 8.5 hour flight from extended family and support systems. And what job prospects are there over there? Not much when your career is completely tied to Vancouver.

#234 FLHTK on 01.08.18 at 5:54 pm

Vancouver and Toronto will be like fort mcmurray where employers have to pay living expenses or a living allowance like the region of wood buffalo does (fort mac) they give $1000 A month living allowance towards rent or home. I can foresee this in the future as more of the older generation retires and the younger have moved on….they will need to do this to attract and retain talent.

#235 LivinLarge on 01.08.18 at 6:01 pm

“That’s too bad, where else can you get day care for free, yet have the un-paid caregivers jostle to get more time with the clientele the following week? :)”…indeed IHTCD9. Still, just an unfortunate reality of the population and economy shifts since 1914.

I don’t admire what has happened since WW1 but it was and is inevitable. Life was so dramatically different when more than 1/2 our population lived in rural Canada before 1914 and way more than half now live in urban Canada. Taking your 2.7 children to the grand parents or even having the grand parents in the same home made a truly fundamental difference in the ability to engage two wage earners in a household. And now with the loss of the mgf jobs removing the 2nd unskilled labour job opportunities life isn’t getting any better any time soon or likely ever.

#236 YVR Renter on 01.08.18 at 8:21 pm

Living allowance, now wouldn’t that be amazing? Our peers working at same jobs across Canada make the same but we get whacked to live and do the job in Vancouver. And we are not about to commute from Langley. Been there, done that for many years, we earned the right not to.

#237 AGuyInVancouver on 01.08.18 at 8:59 pm

#146 Lost…but not leased on 01.07.18 at 11:27 pm

..May suggest people do a GOOGLE search on “MURBS”, which appeared to be the FEDS last gasp attempt(early 1980’s)at encouraging the private sector to fund and build rental housing. It failed miserably…and likely made Gov’t gun shy to the present day.
_ _ _
MURB porgram gave us much of the rental stock that exists today. Hardly a failure.

Apparently its not Millenials fleeing Vancouver but the Middle Aged:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/vancouvers-middle-aged-exodus-raises-concerns-about-citys-economic-future/article36585479/

#238 ozy - please leave and let some savers rise on 01.08.18 at 11:21 pm

the lesson here is that milexxials should have started saving at age 18 and through power of compounded interest, have 1-2-3 million as down-payment. DUH

#239 Steven Rowlandson on 01.09.18 at 1:20 pm

I haven’t paid tax in years except when I buy something. I don’t get paid to pay taxes or buy houses or even live in the country I was born in and it isn’t for lack of filing a return. You people are over estimating the political and financial credibility of the country. Given what has been going on in the last 50 to 60 years there is no real cause for pride or respect at all. There is cause for critique and reform or abatement of damned near everything. I doubt any of you will ever understand why or what it really means.
There is one thing you might keep an eye on though.
The ice age cycle, yes folks your nation has a best before date. Once the transition starts it is game over.
You are either staying or you are living

#240 Guy in Calgary on 01.09.18 at 1:33 pm

Calgary has the highest average salaries in the country and reasonable real estate prices. You get the Rockies, the prairies and a clean new city. Lots of young people here too.

But, it is cold and dry. At least Kelowna is close if you want a lake.

#241 LivinLarge on 01.09.18 at 3:29 pm

“May suggest people do a GOOGLE search on “MURBS”, which appeared to be the FEDS last gasp attempt(early 1980’s)at encouraging the private sector to fund and build rental housing. It failed miserably…and likely made Gov’t gun shy to the present day.
_ _ _
MURB porgram gave us much of the rental stock that exists today. Hardly a failure.”…talk to anyone who got in on the MURB promotion investment schemes and ask them if it was a failure or not and I’m guessing 99.9% will tell you it was after they all got reassessed for the front loaded CCA they claimed and then couldn’t sell the units they owned.

The MURB fiasco did indeed dump a lot of new housing units on the market but only because the program was sold on a short term investment windfall because of the front loading of the CCA against other (non same class capital property) income.

It looked soooo juicy, invest in a multiple unit building construction and get your CCA up front against other income and then just collect rents. The feds diddled with the sweetheart CCA deduction almost immediately when they realized how much they had pissed away but the ordinary Joe who was sucked into a “too good to be true…for long” tax scheme took a huge hit.