Up she goes

On Thursday night, swaps trading (no, not what you think) put the odds of a rate hike in a few days at 40%. By Friday morning that had almost doubled. By noon most of the bank economists had piled on, boldly forecasting the central bank will pull the trigger again a week from Wednesday.

The dollar spiked – close to 81 cents, the best show in months. Bond yields jumped. Two-year government debt saw the greatest increase in almost seven years. By the end of the day a rate hike was baked into everything, thus for the third time in six months the cost of money will be going up. So will variable-rate mortgages, personal lines of credit, demand loans, HELOCs, business loans and credit card rates. High-interest savings accounts and GICs? Don’t be silly.

The country has apparently turned into a jobs machine. Exports are swelling just as the real estate market starts to go down. There were 78,600 positions created in December, wildly more than predicted, with the jobless rate falling to a four-decade low of 5.7%. So in 2017 over 422,500 new jobs emerged. Best in 15 years. In the last three months, 193,400 people found work. Biggest 90-day pop since “Disco Lady” topped the charts.

Yup, lots of these are part-time, but over the course of the whole year most were full-time permanent positions. In fact more FT hiring took place than at any time since 1999, when the average Millennial was eight. The most manufacturing jobs in six years, too. Average hours worked are increasing. Wages, too. The gain in incomes is 2.9%, now running ahead of inflation – big change from a couple of years ago.

What’s it all mean?

More inflation and higher prices. That’s a given. Ontario’s ill-timed minimum wage boost (and the one coming in Alberta) will help push that along, plus more taxes coming in the T2 budget now just weeks away. But big job growth means the economy is expanding and employers are more confident, which will likely push Canadian equities higher as bond prices fall. Remember a few months ago how this blog told you to augment the maple in your portfolio? Now you know why.

But the big impact of a rate hike in 12 days, then two more (at least) during 2018 will be on housing affordability, average prices and the decreasing equity of homeowners across the country. As mentioned, five-year mortgage rates will be north of 4%, about double levels of less than a year ago. New borrowing rules (the stress test) are raising the bar even further and negating some of the impact of the Bank of Mom, since a 20% down payment no longer matters.

While the cost of borrowing goes up, credit is restricted and housing values inevitably drop, since people can afford less. That’s one part of the equation. The other is supply and demand. As mentioned here this week, for example, sales in Toronto declined 18% while the number of active listings skyrocketed 172%.

Prices went stupid-ballistic last winter because mortgages were the cheapest ever (2%) and the number of available listings withered. Thousands of homeowners who could have scored windfall profits said, meekly, “but if we sell, where will we go?” And so they missed peak house. In 2018 they might find selling takes months, causes huge stress, and results only in offers from vultures. Classic behaviour.

All of this is to remind that no asset rises without end. All booms finish. Every bubble breaks. Prices revert to the mean. It’s not different this time. It never is. Never was.

Recency bias – believing what has just happened will continue to go on – is the downfall of so many investors. Be it houses, cryptos, weed stocks or gold, the pattern repeats and repeats. Sooner or later, wise people learn there’s no silver bullet, no home run, knockout or one-asset nirvana. Meanwhile the fools buy high, sell low, then complain life’s unfair.

Balance, diversification, liquidity – these things will sustain you. Start today.

161 comments ↓

#1 HanMan3000 on 01.05.18 at 6:21 pm

December real estate stats are now available at:

http://TorontoRealEstateCharts.com

#2 For those about to flop... on 01.05.18 at 6:24 pm

Recent Sale Report.

This house sold 2 days ago.

3870 w 17th ave,Vancouver.

Originally asking 2.88 then 2.73 then 2.58then 2.43

Just sold for 2.40

2016 Tax assessment 2.85

2017 Tax assessment 2.79

And so the saga is over and they cashed out ,probably a year and a half too late.

Still got 2.4 out of someone for a nearly 100 year old house…

M43AZ

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3870-w-17th-avenue

#3 Nick on 01.05.18 at 6:27 pm

People are so ignorant to believe GTA is somehow super special. People can’t think for themselves. All they have to do is look at all the other housing bubbles around the world and realize cheap credit and nonsensical FOMO is driving asset prices higher.

Sheep to the slaughter.

#4 -=jwk=- on 01.05.18 at 6:29 pm


The country has apparently turned into a jobs machine. Exports are swelling just as the real estate market starts to go down. There were 78,600 positions created in December, wildly more than predicted, with the jobless rate falling to a four-decade low of 5.7%. So in 2017 over 422,500 new jobs emerged. Best in 15 years. In the last three months, 193,400 people found work. Biggest 90-day pop since “Disco Lady” topped the charts.

Why do we keep electing liberal governments when this keeps happening?!? Need to get rid of JT, STAT!!

oh, wait. nevermind.

#5 The Front Window on 01.05.18 at 6:30 pm

The price of a single family detached is up
50% in Coquitlam and attached homes are up massively accross the GVRD. Sorry Harth maybe next year you will be right. Vancouver is not Toronto.

#6 Jungle on 01.05.18 at 6:31 pm

poloz can’t deny a rate hike now. If this change later on ,he can always lower.

Watching this painful discount on wcs crude is costing our economy billions.

If the government wants some quick prosperity get more capacity in pipelines going fast, we have trump who supports before he gets kicked out and some environmentalist agenda takes over again

#7 Nic on 01.05.18 at 6:31 pm

Prices revert to the mean? What exactly is that and what would that look like in our 3 biggest cities..a 20% haircut? 30, 40?? Been saying it for years but even 20% puts us back to..2016?

#8 Smartalox on 01.05.18 at 6:33 pm

Flopp @ #2:

Wow! 17% below the original ask, and 14% below the 2017 assessment.

New benchmarks for the west side of Vancouver!

#9 Jungle on 01.05.18 at 6:34 pm

Unions, mpps, premier , Corp office very disappointed wealthy franchise owners using Tim Hortons minimum wage workers for the political statement snd agenda.

#10 Larry B on 01.05.18 at 6:35 pm

Cash is king and the fools run after the golden ring. Personally, I am sitting on the side lines waiting for the other shoe to drop. A home is were you live fools, it has never been an investment.

#11 TRUMP on 01.05.18 at 6:40 pm

All thise jobs created….

And most are either government or minimum wage positions.

Corrupt politicians once again trying to bamboozle the weak.

MAKE CANADA POOR AND DEPENDENT AGAIN!!

#12 Kelsey on 01.05.18 at 6:41 pm

For anyone seriously interested in the topic, I would recommend downloading the 5-Part Podcast series by Macrovoices on the “Anatomy of the U.S. Dollar End Game”.

#13 zee on 01.05.18 at 6:41 pm

Garth,
Lets make a friendly bet, I say no rate hike this month by Poloz.

All it takes is one weak data point and rate hike talks is all off the table.

#14 Brian1 on 01.05.18 at 6:41 pm

Kim Jung Un is up to it again, buying time. South Korea doesn’t mind though as it will help the games.I think N.K. is a trap set by China and Russia.

#15 Average Joe, Vancouver on 01.05.18 at 6:42 pm

Yep, it’s been fine few months for CPD….more to come.

#16 the Jaguar on 01.05.18 at 6:44 pm

“Minus 18, Toronto. There is a couple under that blanket. Won’t move. There but for the grace of God…”

-18 in the big smoke is like -30 on the prairies. Will never forget being on Queen Street with that lake effect chill. Mercy. Isn’t the building a church? Why wouldn’t they be inside catching a few winks on a pew? Christoper Hitchens was right about religion. I just love the Instagram photos.
What’s wrong with part time jobs? The boomers might enjoy working a few days or hours a week while they collect their company pensions and CPP. A little extra pocket change for those luxury items one cannot live without such as a few weeks south on some tropical isle when -18 makes an appearance, and a way of staying in the game, albeit in a reduced responsibility kind of way…

#17 frank on 01.05.18 at 6:44 pm

You really believe that unemployment is the lowest since 1976? Veri- veri- silly belief. Veri as in Veritesium.

#18 Leo Trollstoy on 01.05.18 at 6:45 pm

Inflation: up up and awaaaaay!!!

#19 Mark on 01.05.18 at 6:46 pm

If employment prospects are so great, where’s the wage pressure? Only wage pressure seems to be in the 55 and over category YoY:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/labr69a-eng.htm

Incidentally, despite our resident troll claiming that the engineering sector is hot, the Scientific and Professional Services category actually suffered YoY real wage loss. Manufacturing and utility employees fared even worse.

And if employment prospects are so great and the labour market so tight (as alleged), why are Tim Hortons franchisees whining like babies nationwide about minimum wage prospects?

Doesn’t add up, especially with the well known dramatic slowing of the RE market and the many sectors that support transactional activity within it.

#20 Whooah? on 01.05.18 at 6:47 pm

I thought everyone was out of business now that the min wage went up?

#21 Penny Henny on 01.05.18 at 6:48 pm

More jobs. Lower unemployment rate. Wage inflation to follow. Toronto real estate flattens out. That’s my call.

#22 Smoking Man on 01.05.18 at 6:48 pm

Ha ha. I sold at peek real estate and now I’m living the dream.

https://www.google.com/search?q=temp+orange+ca&oq=temp+orange+&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l3.14393j0j7&client=ms-android-samsung&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

SCM you idiot. Socialism starts of with free stuff then ends up in bloodshed and poverty. Carefully what you wish for.

#23 Penny Henny on 01.05.18 at 6:50 pm

Maybe the Liberals aren’t doing such a bad job after all.
“The deficit will look after it’s self”. In 2046 I heard.

#24 n1tro on 01.05.18 at 6:50 pm

Discount brokerages TD and RBC have had issues allowing clients logging into to make trades. The news is reporting retail customers are now piling into stocks for FOMO.

Binance and Bittrex (crypto exchanges) have suspended new user registration due to overwhelming demand.

This may be the beginning of the end(?).

#25 TheSecretCode on 01.05.18 at 6:51 pm

Covering the fly over areas in BC that Garth flies over…

Kelowna broke the meteoric rise in sales volume for SFDs, THs and Condos starting last March, 2017…all the way up until September. Then it reversed. It looks to be B20 pull forward buying before the real boxing day sale event arrives…and it is not the new regs that are going to kill it…it is rising interest rates that will put the nail in the coffin.

Kelowna SFD’s volume started reversing in March 2017.

THs started reversing in April, 2017 – had a small summer bounce.

Condos started reversing in June 2017, had a decent July bounce, then continued reversing until the B20 pull forward.

The number for January and February are going to be wild.

You better be doing your math very carefully if buying in BC…

And

Hang onto your wallet.

#26 Ian on 01.05.18 at 6:53 pm

I’m glad the BoC will finally get back on the train. CAD rocketing up though!

Flop I love all your case data. This decline seems more severe than the ones last year. Will be fascinating to see your cases this year.

#27 InvestorsFriend on 01.05.18 at 6:56 pm

RRSP investment risk versus TFSA risk

Here is something to ponder.

Imagine that you expect to pay 40% tax on any RRSP withdrawals you make now or anytime in the future. This is an estimate of your marginal tax rate.

In that case if you put $10,000 of your RRSP money into a Weed stock you are risking really only $6000 of your own money and $4,000 of the tax man’s money.

In contrast $10,000 of TFSA money going into a weed stock is putting a full $10,000 of your own money at risk.

In other words, “your” RRSP, if you expect to pay 40% tax on withdrawals, is really only 60% yours.

Every investment you make has the tax man coming along as a 40% partner in each RRSP investment. In effect, the tax man has you as a sort of portfolio manager for his 40% share of “your” RRSP. (Assuming again you expect to pay a 40% tax rate on all withdrawals whenever in the future they may be made)

Does anyone not get or disagree with this math? I don’t think it is immediately obvious until you think about it.

#28 Victor V on 01.05.18 at 6:58 pm

All but one of the Big Six banks now say Canadians will see a rate hike this month

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/most-big-canadian-banks-expect-jobs-data-to-force-polozs-hand

#29 I’m stupid on 01.05.18 at 6:59 pm

This is another reason to love dogs!

http://www.neonnettle.com/news/3164-bulldog-bites-pedophile-s-penis-off-as-he-tried-to-rape-sleeping-children

Justice served doggie style lol!

#30 Steve on 01.05.18 at 7:03 pm

I feel bad for my peers in kelowna right now. They look a lot like pelicans with too much fish in their gullets to fly away. So they have to stand on the beach with a limp cod tail hanging out of the beak, blinking helplessly at a huge tsunami rolling in. Meanwhile my skeletonized debt free pelican body is free flapping away with ungainly blue rubbery feet clapping together. So happy to be free, and waiting for the water to pull back so I can poach a beak full of upchucked sea life from my hapless contemporaries. Ka-kaw!!

#31 When the Whip Comes Down on 01.05.18 at 7:04 pm

I’m with Zee……..Poloz won’t do it. Too much of a wuss. Worst BoC gov in history.

#32 Non-racist Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 7:05 pm

DELETED

#33 n1tro on 01.05.18 at 7:07 pm

#4 -=jwk=- on 01.05.18 at 6:29 pm

The country has apparently turned into a jobs machine. Exports are swelling just as the real estate market starts to go down. There were 78,600 positions created in December, wildly more than predicted, with the jobless rate falling to a four-decade low of 5.7%. So in 2017 over 422,500 new jobs emerged. Best in 15 years. In the last three months, 193,400 people found work. Biggest 90-day pop since “Disco Lady” topped the charts.

Why do we keep electing liberal governments when this keeps happening?!? Need to get rid of JT, STAT!!
oh, wait. nevermind.
—————-
With that logic, then long live President Trump!

#34 Fallen Comrade on 01.05.18 at 7:07 pm

Garth, I think you could reduce the courts martial and instill a little esprit de corps if we all adopted uniforms. Obviously nothing too expensive, maybe just add some epaulets to our name tags and see how it flys. A few humble suggestions, but edit freely. You’re the ™Boss™.

∆ CryptoFan ∆
^ Gold Bug ^
≠ Racist ≠
= Not Racist =
™ Enlightened One ™
~ Bipartisan ~
_ Inflexible _
• Pinhead •
: Realtor Shill :
; Banker Shill ;
# Under 30 #
$ Rich Man $
¢ Poor Man ¢
£ Lager Lout £
¥ Invisible Man ¥
€ Euro Trash €

#35 Madcat on 01.05.18 at 7:08 pm

Kelsey, the government has done no favors to anyone in their attempt to even the playing field. Incentives such as the first time home buyer program, zero down payments, longer amortization periods. All these incentives did was get people into the housing market who probably shouldn’t be in it.

Lets say 15 years ago you decided to spend several years and what little money you had getting an education or starting a small business… You might even have made the horrific mistake of deciding to be prudent and live below your means and save a down payment… If you made any of these life choices at the expense of purchasing a home you probably made a big mistake…

Thanks to our brilliant government you were punished for spending those years trying to make a better life for yourself. While you were doing all that useless crap the government was busy meddling with the market trying to make sure everyone with a heartbeat could buy a house… They lengthened amortization periods, reduced the necessary down-payment requirement to zero, lowered interest rates to pretty much nothing.

Socialism is not the answer. That will just drive prices higher as more and more of the undeserving masses are freely given a paycheck that they don’t deserve. One should have to work hard to attain the best things in life… This ‘everybody’s a winner’ crap is what is causing this mess…

There has to be losers. And the losers should not have been the entrepreneurs, savers and students.

#36 TheSecretCode on 01.05.18 at 7:18 pm

And for those interested:

Kelowna SFD average sale price peaked at 716k in June 2017 for the average garbage SFD box…all time record…the playbook for what is coming has already played out in Vancouver. Outer areas lagging about 1 year behind.

For the millennial group out West – Calgary has jobs and is 450-500k for a box / SFD there. Massive price discount over BC like never seen before. And Brett the Hitman Heart lives there.

If you have not lived in BC for at least 5 years, you will not survive here. There are no jobs keeping pace with the surging cost of living.

Again, some situations might be doable, just do your math very carefully and understand the effects of rising interest rates on homes.

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.18 at 7:19 pm

#32 Screwed Canadian Millenial

I know this may be hard for you to fathom but……nobody cares.

#38 Danny on 01.05.18 at 7:19 pm

Love this blog.
Very informative.
Like most of your bloods……real statistics really help to clear things up and help with your past predictions.

Only part I was hoping to hear more of, is of course about the benefit of having one law across the Country for legalizing weed…..unlike the disjointed US of A…..and now the Feds at odds with pot selling states. I guess Trumps base don’t like pot.

Thinking that will bring about a huge increase in Americans visiting Canada for a legal smoke.
See Fantino and Ernie Eaves know how to make more money.

Thanks pathetic Trump…..you are helping our economy.

At least bookstores everywhere and of course Amazon with unprecedented book sales are benefiting from the anger and deficiencies coming from a man-baby.

#39 acdel on 01.05.18 at 7:25 pm

Oil prices up = more jobs, Alberta just added 20k plus, nothing to do with the socialist government; just think how many more would have been created without them?

Pays the bills in Canada! Oops, did I say something wrong while the country is shivering in record cold temps.

Go oil/gas go!

#40 Protea on 01.05.18 at 7:28 pm

Sellers slash prices after family home market stalls
House prices slashed in London UK Financial Capital of the world. Folks in Toronto and Vancouver the same thing will happen in our country. The day of reckoning is around the corner.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/sellers-slash-prices-after-family-home-market-stalls-qxn5gs7f6

This is Great stuff. I hope the house prices in Toronto and Vacouver totally collapse and give youngsters a chance.

#41 TheSecretCode on 01.05.18 at 7:29 pm

Nice house that just hit the Kelowna market:

Listed 749K

BC Assessed value that just got mailed out: 790K

-41k under assessed value.

Why? BC Assessment is out of date, out of touch…

But don’t worry BC Assessment will catch this change in 2019 and then put a freeze on assessed values if they are not in favor of going up. Then GlobalBC can continue to report their BS.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18967789/374-Trumpeter-Court-Kelowna-British-Columbia-V1W5J4-Kettle-Valley

#42 Bezengy on 01.05.18 at 7:31 pm

I hope every young person takes advantage of the opportunities available to get some much needed job experience as this employment boom may not last forever. There has been a lot of talk about the minimum wage this week, and $15 an hour still doesn’t cut it, but I learned early in life if you’re good at what you do and are willing to take a few risks, the world’s your oyster, and you can charge a premium for your services. There’s no time to waste complaining about someone else’s good fortune, and no one needs to hear about your problems. It’s not that they don’t care, but it just doesn’t help get the job done. My favorite quote of all time, “if you want to make money, wake up early and boogie”

#43 paracho on 01.05.18 at 7:36 pm

Once again… great advice !
Too many follow the herd only to be slaughtered or love i chains .

#44 bobby17 on 01.05.18 at 7:40 pm

How come the liberals never get credit for the great job numbers or the uptick in the economy. First time respondant but I believe you will always be tory blue and never respond anything but negative toward liberals in any capacity. Just saying but I recall you calling a Tory win in your last election prediction.

A readers’ poll, not me, forecasted a Con win. BTW, my last political gig was as a Lib MP. – Garth

#45 millenial-falcon on 01.05.18 at 7:42 pm

#30 Steve on 01.05.18 at 7:03 pm
I feel bad for my peers in kelowna right now. They look a lot like pelicans with too much fish in their gullets to fly away. So they have to stand on the beach with a limp cod tail hanging out of the beak, blinking helplessly at a huge tsunami rolling in. Meanwhile my skeletonized debt free pelican body is free flapping away with ungainly blue rubbery feet clapping together. So happy to be free, and waiting for the water to pull back so I can poach a beak full of upchucked sea life from my hapless contemporaries. Ka-kaw!!
——————–

wtf did i just read…… lol

#46 Mark Deflation Theory as Pitz on Zerohedge and Stormfront on 01.05.18 at 7:44 pm

I hope Poloz doesn’t flake out and insist that he sees no inflation when the price of a coffee at Tim Hortons for medium was $1.99 now it’s $2.29 plus taxes, if applicable.

#47 ben on 01.05.18 at 7:46 pm

> Meanwhile the fools buy high, sell low, then complain life’s unfair.

I know you are just telling it like it is, however it shouldn’t be like this. Life chances should not be based on when you enter/exit the housing market. They should be based on your ability to add value.

Now we must go through a damaging deleveraging period, having gone through an equally damaging period of “growth” where young people were left behind in the dust, would be wealth creators saw the writing on the wall and decided to speculate instead and generally resources were misdirected into foolish credit bubbles.

It doesn’t have to be like this.

For a long time Germany resisted the call of the bankers. Check out land prices here:

https://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/global-house-prices

However they don’t have land value tax and now with Brexit the bankers are softly whispering in their ear “effortless income, just pass your children to me”.

Complete Banker: Neil Hannon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wt6M6ggQbZQ

It is like this. But it can be changed.

#48 down_boy on 01.05.18 at 7:47 pm

Long johns…
or is it long long johns?
Days are getting longer, too.

Buy the bottom with confidence, get out at the top with caution.

#49 Trading Naked on 01.05.18 at 7:54 pm

Beardie!!! Fun fact: bearded collies can clear a 9-foot fence in one leap. Watch them dazzle at the next SuperDogs show.

#50 homeless in b.c on 01.05.18 at 8:04 pm

Re: The discount on WCS vs WTI –
So Imperial Oil Canada has to sell WCS to Imperial Oil Texas at a discount. Oh the horror! How will the accountants ever figure that out? And if we can’t get these tidewater pipelines built we might just have to upgrade and refine the bitumen here in Canada. Can you imagine how much work that would create for foreign workers. If we did that we wouldn’t have to import 8 billion dollars worth of oil from Saudi Arabia and someone else would have to finance their beheadings. A couple of people might even agree with that idea.
The Ralph Klein royalty on “any petroleum products priced below $40” is 1% in Alberta. Bitumen is about 15 dollars a barrel so we get 15 cents and the jobs get exported thru Keystone and Kinder Morgan. A whole bunch of Canadians think we need this. Have you not thought this thru or have you just swallowed the bs from the Propaganda Ministry for Big Foreign Oil (CAPP)?
If a Texas oil company wants to build a 5 million barrel diluted bitumen storage facility near your home and next to your kids university, are you o.k with that? I mean, our pretty boy Prime Minister says it is safe.
Even though we have the third largest oil reserves in the world we have been importing oil into Canada for over seventy years. None of the governments in that time have seen fit to change that. (Energy East was not designed to change that)
Norway has an oil royalty fund topping a trillion dollars, Alberta is almost bankrupt.
Something wrong with this picture ya think?

#51 Cindy on 01.05.18 at 8:05 pm

#30 Steve on 01.05.18 at 7:03 pm
I feel bad for my peers in kelowna right now. They look a lot like pelicans with too much fish in their gullets to fly away. So they have to stand on the beach with a limp cod tail hanging out of the beak, blinking helplessly at a huge tsunami rolling in. Meanwhile my skeletonized debt free pelican body is free flapping away with ungainly blue rubbery feet clapping together. So happy to be free, and waiting for the water to pull back so I can poach a beak full of upchucked sea life from my hapless contemporaries. Ka-kaw!!
——————–

wtf did i just read…… lol

_____________________________________________

I was thinking the same thing….lol. I guess that’s one way to put it!!

Ka-kaw!! Brilliant.

#52 Chaddywack on 01.05.18 at 8:09 pm

@#2 flop

You know what’s funny about that listing. It was a house that I was going to rent, I believe it was listed for rent a couple months ago.

The person who responded to me was a realtor (not sure if she was the owner or representing a foreign investor), but she told me they were “willing to sign a 1 year lease only with a move out clause.” We had to leave firmly in one year so next fall.

If I remember correctly the asking rent was about $2,800 for the whole house on the westside…that’s what attracted me to the listing. Looks like they got their number and decided not to wait a year for the “market to improve”….

#53 Terry on 01.05.18 at 8:10 pm

I am a bit confused. Canadian demographics show that approximately 1000 people turn 65 each day in Canada. If you assume that only 50% of those people work (and it is probably much higher) that would mean, that if you use 65 as a retirement age, to just replace these people would require, at a minimum, 182,500 new employees (and I beleive that more than 50% worked as this generation relied on 2 incomes so the actual retiring number is probably higher). Even if these position are filled through promoting some, eventual someone needs to be hired to fill the last person promoted up the chain to fill that retiring persons position. This would mean that almost 1/2 of all REPORTED highering is not new jobs but merely the filling of a retiring persons position and should not be reported in any statistics. Now add in to the jobs stats that approximately the same number of Canadians are entering the job market (becoming adults) each day as retire and assuming that all of these young people will have to work you would need another 182,500 jobs just to keep everything even. This means that we need to create at least 365,000 people to break even (probably more) as we are not even counting in immigration, people reentering the work force, etc.

So how does the unemployment rate go down when all of the jobs created are merely accounting for retiring/new workers?

Thanks

#54 Not trump on 01.05.18 at 8:12 pm

I’m stupid on 01.05.18 at 6:59 pm

#29 This is another reason to love dogs!

http://www.neonnettle.com/news/3164-bulldog-bites-pedophile-s-penis-off-as-he-tried-to-rape-sleeping-children

Justice served doggie style lol!

——————————————————
https://www.rojakpot.com/bulldog-pedophile-randle-james-hoax/

You really should read before you post.
(fake news)

#55 Long-Time Lurker on 01.05.18 at 8:26 pm

#146 I’m stupid on 01.05.18 at 8:26 am
Having lived on both sides of the tracks I think I have a good perspective regarding minimum wage. The biggest question that needs to be answered is can businesses in Ontario afford to pay $14 per hour and still stay in business?

>Not stupid.

>Stanford where are you?

#56 Dosouth on 01.05.18 at 8:26 pm

Might see an increase but like the last predictions that went sideways. …might not. Either way January figures will tell a much different story with a loss of ???? thousands of seasonal jobs. Rates will retreat once all the backslapping and credit taking is done. Dead cat bounce. ..

#57 Silver Bullet on 01.05.18 at 8:29 pm

It definitely is out there . It requires know how and risk .Nothing is without risk . Nothing

My son’s friend on dental school started investing in cryptos . He has a ‘portfolio ‘

It’s now worth $750,000

It will pay his schooling and then some

#58 Toronto RE is plunging fast... on 01.05.18 at 8:30 pm

Check out this month, then the month before…

https://www.zolo.ca/toronto-real-estate/trends

#59 No rate increase on 01.05.18 at 8:30 pm

Poloz is not man enough to raise interest rate this year while 47% of mortgages are up for renewal.

#60 john m on 01.05.18 at 8:33 pm

Thankfully J.T. and the liberal party took over the reins of our country after all the dismal Conservative years……….

#61 renter in Surrey on 01.05.18 at 8:39 pm

Decent houses in Langley are still $1,000,000+
Even if they drop to $800K (I doubt they will), it is still unaffordable.
Looks like this ship is sailed.
Apparently BC is different.
Should’ve bought 5-7 years ago.

#62 G1 on 01.05.18 at 8:41 pm

Why do you always try to bash gold every chance you get? Comparing it to fads like weed stocks and cryptos is silly. Ask people in Venezuela who had some gold how much better they are off than others who had cash. In the last 100 years, fiat currencies have lost most of their purchasing power against gold where gold will always have value as money. Eric Sprott said it best, if someone barries gold and equivalent amount of cash over the years which one would you rader dig out in the future. Often the cash may no longer even be legal tender. Also another reason as to why your comparison makes no sense is that now there is next to no sentiment for gold, millennials would rather have a joint or a fraction of bitcoin cause these are hot. Once gold really startto take off people won’t notice and the public won’t get in until it is multiple of today’s price. Oh yes and the fact that China, Russia and the lest of BRICD want to move away from the USD in their trade and gold is the only asset /currently they trust to back up their purchases will be eye opening to the west but at that time the emperor will have no clothes. For the record silver will go up multiples of golf

#63 Damifino on 01.05.18 at 8:46 pm

#60 john

Thankfully J.T. and the liberal party took over the reins of our country after all the dismal Conservative years
————————-

What was so dismal about them, beyond having a sourpuss for a Prime Minster?

#64 Protea on 01.05.18 at 8:47 pm

#30 Steve on 01.05.18 at 7:03 pm

Steve best comment in 5 years following this blog. Give us more of your brillance mate !! cant wait to see what you can come up with next !!

#65 tccontrarian on 01.05.18 at 8:53 pm

“Recency bias – believing what has just happened will continue to go on – is the downfall of so many investors. Be it houses, cryptos, weed stocks or gold, the pattern repeats and repeats.” – GT
———————————————————–
Interesting that you include ‘gold’ (which isn’t overvalued right now by any stretch of the imagination), yet you exclude tech or Dow or Fangs (which are!).
I don’t know what kind of ‘bias’ that is, but it is! Or maybe it was just oversight…

TCC

No oversight. Silly investors jump on PMs when they rise. Always ends badly. – Garth

#66 Bankish on 01.05.18 at 8:59 pm

To #27 InvestorsFriend

I put all my working investment money in a spousal RRSP at about 43% tax rate and took my pension in cash(moved to an RRSP) and LIRA. I’ve since put half of the LIRA in my RRSP and the other half in a LIF. Every stock I own is in the 6 Canadian Banks and my dividend is about $50,000 a year. The CPP and OAS pay me about $20,000 a year and so I need to withdraw $60,000 a year. My wife takes $40,000 out of hers and I take $20,000 out of my RRSP and LIF and our tax rate is $40,000 each at approximately 15%.Next year I will be 65 and we can start tax splitting from RIFFS.
The Bank Stock made about 30% in 2016 and 14% in 2017 so I now am up over $350,000 in my investment account.
In 2 years I will start a RIFF meltdown so the heirs will get more money. The only time the government is going to get 40% out of me is when I am very old or dead.

#67 Hans on 01.05.18 at 9:03 pm

At the risk of sounding old… it feels as though we have a rolling asset bubble moving around into different spaces. The debt bubble is pretty incredible when you think about how it’s a worldwide phenomenon, but then you have country specific ones going as well – housing and pot here in Canuckistan. Interest rates up…sure. Dollar is already at 80 and that’s without a resource tailwind behind it. Keep raising rates, further weakening of the USD, and a resource boost and we’ll be heading to parity again with the USD….seems like a pretty crazy scenario to me but all the right pieces are in place to make it happen. Maybe we will be going to Disneyland again.

#68 paulo on 01.05.18 at 9:05 pm

Calling a total of 125 basis points BOC increase through Dec 31 2018. likely 3x.25 and a fed chaser .50 likely in the early fall.

#69 tccontrarian on 01.05.18 at 9:10 pm

No oversight. Silly investors jump on PMs when they rise. Always ends badly. – Garth

Not when you buy ‘low’ and sell ‘high’ – just as in every other asset class if/when the opportunity presents itself.
Selling the Dow/FAANGs short now, for instance, is simply ‘prudent’ – just as buying PM’s late 2015/early 2016 was.

Point being: any asset that attracts the masses (ie. herds), and becomes crazily overvalued in a speculative frenzy, ought to be sold (or sold short). RE in YVR and GTA are no exceptions – ditto in gold or energy or anything else.
I don’t see how you can disagree with this…

TCC

Isn’t that what I said? – Garth

#70 I’m stupid on 01.05.18 at 9:16 pm

#54 Not Trump

I heard it on the radio and quickly posted it. I didn’t check. You’re correct sorry!

#71 Fish on 01.05.18 at 9:16 pm

Have we forgotten, what is going to happen with,wild bill and t2

#72 John in Mtl on 01.05.18 at 9:27 pm

Hello Garth and fellow Bloggers, here’s wishing you a good and prosperous 2018.

Can anyone provide a plausible answer to this burning question I have:

I have a few more or less lousy Desjardin (credit union in QC) investment portfolios, you know, the ones that cost about 2% MER… One is a mix of 60/40 and the other one a mix of 40/60. Overall YoY they made 6% net of MER in 2017. But that was 2 days ago, because today, the CAD is higher.

Anyhow, I noticed that every time the CAD goes up, those portfolios take a dive; and I just can’t figure out WHY. Dollar conversion? Bond rates? Stocks repriced? What’s causing this?

Do most portfolios of any kind bobble up & down with the value of the CAD or is it just that these guyz are lousy managers?

Thanks

#73 USD vs CAD on 01.05.18 at 9:28 pm

Can anyone explain why the USD flounders while they are raising rates, cutting taxes and have lower unemployment.
But the CAD spikes higher on lesser positive data.?

#74 Rexx Rock on 01.05.18 at 9:38 pm

Langford, a suburb of Victoria houses went up 22% in a year.Good times here in Victoria!I think price increases will be only maybe only 10% for next year with a possible rate hike.Only wealthy and high wage earners are buying houses in Victoria and the poorer are buying condos.

#75 Ronaldo on 01.05.18 at 9:45 pm

#52 Chaddywack on 01.05.18 at 8:09 pm

@#2 flop

You know what’s funny about that listing. It was a house that I was going to rent, I believe it was listed for rent a couple months ago.

The person who responded to me was a realtor (not sure if she was the owner or representing a foreign investor), but she told me they were “willing to sign a 1 year lease only with a move out clause.” We had to leave firmly in one year so next fall.

If I remember correctly the asking rent was about $2,800 for the whole house on the westside…that’s what attracted me to the listing. Looks like they got their number and decided not to wait a year for the “market to improve”….
—————————————————————-
Flop, I would bet dollars to timbits that realtors own a large percentage of SFD and Condos in the lower mainland. These same people who manipulated the prices up are going to get theirs on the way down. Going to be fun to watch. I hope they get squeezed real tight. They deserve what they are going to get. The parties over. They will not want to be subsidizing their tenants much longer. Expecting a flood of listings in the spring.

#76 Kelsey on 01.05.18 at 9:48 pm

# 35 Madcat

Agree with you 100%. Incredible how respectful and articulate people who understand the issues can be, although you completely missed my sarcasm ;)

#77 StandardDeviation on 01.05.18 at 10:00 pm

Seriously, we believe this fabricated institutional BS! These stats take no account of the self employed, those that have exhausted unemployment nor any meaningful measure of productive employment.
I have peers and friends with MSc’s, PHd’s galore in engineering, chemistry and tech, who have been unemployed for over 2 years, friends who are experienced trades people who are in the same boat, they don’t collect EI or have exhausted it! Government of all persuasions don’t collect meaningful information; in order to produce these politically centric, ill informed and parochial charts.
If you honestly believe this country is “booming” then I want you to share whatever hallucinogenic you are on.
As a “StandardDeviation” I am disgusted with this continual stream of political misinformation. It is a recipe for disaster.

Actually labour stats represent some of the most accurate data points. Perhaps you just need new friends. – Garth

#78 For those about to flop... on 01.05.18 at 10:01 pm

Pink Snow falling in Coquitlam.

These guys are as good a candidate as any that I have presented to lose some money.

They paid 2.53 in July 2016 and although the assessment just creeped up it still fell short at 2.42.

I wish them well ,but they are probably up Macintosh Street without a paddle…

M43AZ

941 Macintosh Street, Coquitlam

Jul 4:$2,598,000
Jan 5: $2,488,000
Change: – 110000.00 -4%

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/941-macintosh-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzWE5HMQ==

#79 InvestorsFriend on 01.05.18 at 10:06 pm

RRSP Discussion

#66 Bankish on 01.05.18 at 8:59 pm
To #27 InvestorsFriend said:

I put all my working investment money in a spousal RRSP at about 43% tax rate and took my pension in cash(moved to an RRSP) and LIRA. I’ve since put half of the LIRA in my RRSP and the other half in a LIF. Every stock I own is in the 6 Canadian Banks and my dividend is about $50,000 a year. The CPP and OAS pay me about $20,000 a year and so I need to withdraw $60,000 a year. My wife takes $40,000 out of hers and I take $20,000 out of my RRSP and LIF and our tax rate is $40,000 each at approximately 15%.Next year I will be 65 and we can start tax splitting from RIFFS.
The Bank Stock made about 30% in 2016 and 14% in 2017 so I now am up over $350,000 in my investment account.

In 2 years I will start a RIFF meltdown so the heirs will get more money. The only time the government is going to get 40% out of me is when I am very old or dead.

************************************
Thank you for the response and congratulations.

If you contributed to an RRSP and got a 43% refund then in effect the refund funded 43% of the RRSP and then it grew tax free and you are taking it out it sounds like at a tax rate quite a bit lower than 40%.

That’s great.

It means that the tax on the 57% of the net cost that you contributed to the RRSP is actually negative. Your 57% share has grown after the tax you will pay to a larger amount than it would have in a tax free account!

That’s all great.

My comment at 27 was about what happens if you ASSUME the tax rate is 40% on withdrawals. I though it might be interesting / educational to point that out.

As far as melt down, it’s not for everyone:

In my own case we have a couple of large RRPSs and we each have defined benefit pension plans and will be close to maximum on Canada Pension plan. So I don’t see much chance to melt down the RRSPs and get the money out any lower than about 40% tax.

The way I figure, if the RRSPs double by the time in 13 years we are 71 (only a double would be a dissappointment) then for each $1.00 today that will be $2.00 then and 80 cents tax. Should I instead take out now paying say 40 cents tax netting 60 cents and no chance to shelter the 60 cents in TFSA which will be already full? And what if the average dollar in those RRSPs at least triples by the time it has to come out? (some of those dollars could be in there for over 30 more year assuming at least one of us lives that long). Each dollar we ever contributed to our RRSPs is now $10.86 on average as of December 31. In reality I should count that as $6.52 after tax but each dollar in only cost us about $0.60 net of refund so all is good.

Other people also may not want to melt down because they will work till 65 and then will need all their pension and RRSP withdrawals and will never be in a position to have a particularly low tax rate.

The goal is not to minimize tax but to maximize after-tax wealth which is not the same.

#80 RE_Investor on 01.05.18 at 10:11 pm

#10 Larry B: Cash is king….

Yes, you are totally right with that comment.
Any investment that pays a monthly dividend in cash while appreciating in value is a smart investment. Such as rental properties.
Don’t sit on your cash too long. Learn a lot then take the plunge, but make sure the numbers are correct. Tune out the noise and really learn your investments and trust your instincts and the facts.

Good luck.

Most rentals are now exercises in negative cash flow. – Garth

#81 steph on 01.05.18 at 10:13 pm

DELETED

#82 Two-thirds on 01.05.18 at 10:20 pm

Before lauding the recent economic data and succumbing to the temptation of congratulating Canada’s Liberal government for it, a few points should be considered:

1) Their aggressive deficit spending *outside of a recession* during a period of historically-low interest rates. Is anyone really surprised or impressed by unrestrained spending and stuffing cash into millions of Canadians’ pockets via child benefits by borrowing from future revenues?

2) The strengthening of oil prices during 2017, Canada’s key export, can it be reasonably attributed to the Liberal government?

3) The “Trump effect” turbocharging the already rising (at the time of the U.S. election) American economy, is that something to thank the Canadian government for?

4) The rebuilding of Fort McMurray after the 2016 wildfires and all the jobs and economic activity it has generated.

It is certainly encouraging that more Canadians are employed and that the economy is growing, but giving the credit to the government and ignoring the cost of its actions is naive and short-sighted.

A billions-sized credit card and a money-dropping helicopter fleet, economic genius does not make.

#83 ww1 on 01.05.18 at 10:38 pm

#73 USD vs CAD on 01.05.18 at 9:28 pm
Can anyone explain why the USD flounders while they are raising rates, cutting taxes and have lower unemployment. But the CAD spikes higher on lesser positive data.?

When studying Forex, you need to compare the CAD to other major international currencies. That’s the only way to understand changes in the USD/CAD rates. On a global basis, there is no CAD spike.

As to the USD floundering, consider it in terms of something that China is accused of – currency manipulation. Hmmmmm …..

#84 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 10:42 pm

DELETED

#85 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 10:43 pm

DELETED

#86 For those about to flop... on 01.05.18 at 10:50 pm

#75 Ronaldo on 01.05.18 at 9:45 pm
#52 Chaddywack on 01.05.18 at 8:09 pm

@#2 flop

You know what’s funny about that listing. It was a house that I was going to rent, I believe it was listed for rent a couple months ago.

The person who responded to me was a realtor (not sure if she was the owner or representing a foreign investor), but she told me they were “willing to sign a 1 year lease only with a move out clause.” We had to leave firmly in one year so next fall.

If I remember correctly the asking rent was about $2,800 for the whole house on the westside…that’s what attracted me to the listing. Looks like they got their number and decided not to wait a year for the “market to improve”….
—————————————————————-
Flop, I would bet dollars to timbits that realtors own a large percentage of SFD and Condos in the lower mainland. These same people who manipulated the prices up are going to get theirs on the way down. Going to be fun to watch. I hope they get squeezed real tight. They deserve what they are going to get. The parties over. They will not want to be subsidizing their tenants much longer. Expecting a flood of listings in the spring.

/////////////////////

Hey Ronnie,work wise I didn’t get to talk to the realtors as much as previous years but it is obviously hard to find much evidence of much doing my study without calling up every listing agent and seeing what’s up.

I believe that I presented two condo cases that took losses that were most likely a realtor.

The two units were being sold by the same realtor which obviously is not unusual but the behaviour of taking them on and off the market at the same time with such regularity and also the amount of price changes suggested it was someone who was a realtor or extremely comfortable with their relationship to display this uncommon behaviour.

I believe most of the realtor action just to in on the assignment action, quick and easy,no heavy lifting.I could be wrong,that’s just my hunch but that is also not to say that they don’t own multiple properties,I just don’t believe it would be a large percentage as you suggested.

This one below has been taken off the market but I put it in my Possible Pinkies Folder last year because it was a pretty wild asking price and the listing stated the it was owned by a realtor.

Paid 2.5 for a block of land and was asking something crazy like 6m.

Probably will be back on in the Spring for a much lower price ,but they will still most likely make a decent profit if a developer wants it…

M43AZ

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2109-w-35th-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMFFUUA==

#87 Tony on 01.05.18 at 10:53 pm

I made a lot of money on the Canadian jobs report today thanks in most part to the B20 OSFI rules and a sliver of luck. I’ll be making a lot of money when Poloz fails to raise interest rates this month. I only bet on real things instead of taking part in ponzi pyramids like the stock market. For the record the cryptocurrenices are not in the category of ponzi’s.

#88 Bankish on 01.05.18 at 10:53 pm

RRSP Discussion

#77 InvestorsFriend
Wow!
You have done very well for yourselves and I wish you a long and healthy retirement. You are working at a whole different level than where I’m coming from.(blue collar worker one income family).
The RRSP has been a very important tool for me because in my earlier years I always had to borrow some of my contributing money and pay it back with my refund. The idea of getting “free”money encouraged me to save diligently.
I enjoy the math you employ in your equations. It’s so good to hear from experienced serious people once in a while.
Goodluck from Bankish

#89 ben on 01.05.18 at 10:53 pm

> Any investment that pays a monthly dividend in cash while appreciating in value is a smart investment. Such as rental properties.

To write this today is beyond incredible.

It’s been easy to make money in real estate even if you understand absolutely nothing about economics. For 25 years countless people have made stupid “improvements” and flipped properties for an impaired profit. Because we came off the gold standard, rates dropped, boomers borrowed and heaven and earth were moved to create and perpetuate a real-estate bubble.

There was no need to understand any of it, you could still cash in.

Now you need to understand it.

#90 Tony on 01.05.18 at 10:59 pm

Re: #79 InvestorsFriend on 01.05.18 at 10:06 pm

Not that I like American banks but I would have played the American banks against the Canadian banks. Long the American banks and short the Canadian banks simply because of the absurd difference in valuations or book value between Canadian and American banking stocks.

#91 Tony on 01.05.18 at 11:05 pm

Re: #73 USD vs CAD on 01.05.18 at 9:28 pm

Just about everything in America today is rigged for the simple fact that no one gets arrested for rigging. Hopefully some day that will change or China will dump the U.S. dollar like a bad habit. Whichever comes first.

#92 Fake News Again on 01.05.18 at 11:06 pm

And of course 30% of those job numbers…..were Govt Workers……which cancels out ANY job gains as 100% of the income tax collected…..will go to cover said Govt Workers….and they will still be short.

#93 Tasties on 01.05.18 at 11:21 pm

Looks like preferred share ETFs are liking the news.

#94 Opportunity on 01.05.18 at 11:23 pm

Rates are slowly creeping up, no knee jerk reaction just a slow methodical trajectory upwards to normalizeation, Garth you speak the truth, objects in the rear view mirror are long gone ie 2.5 5 yr fixes. Stock market is overheating watch for a pull back opportunities to buy soon (-;

#95 S.Bby on 01.05.18 at 11:28 pm

#5 The Front Window
People who keep posting memes like this are looking more foolish every day.

#96 Gary smith on 01.05.18 at 11:36 pm

#80 RE_Investor

Most rentals are now exercises in negative cash flow. – Garth
————————————
Vancouver FOMO is strong.

For years a relative in a “regulated” job in which htjeu dispense financial/tax advice discouraged any talk about jumping into an investment property with a negative cash flow.

Cut to this past summer when the relative and partner are feeling the FOMO. They buy a 50 year old SFH box (not even a Vancouver special) for 1.4 million in with a down which is nearly all loan.

And they are prepared to “lose cash every month” because the market goes up and they will make equity.

Maybe he is right. Time will tell.

#97 Tony on 01.05.18 at 11:41 pm

Re: #17 frank on 01.05.18 at 6:44 pm

In 1976 in and around the Toronto area you didn’t have to apply for a job all you had to do is say you’ll take the job the same day you showed up to tell the employer that line. Quite a different story today.

#98 Huh? on 01.05.18 at 11:55 pm

73 USD vs CAD on 01.05.18 at 9:28 pm
Can anyone explain why the USD flounders while they are raising rates, cutting taxes and have lower unemployment.
But the CAD spikes higher on lesser positive data.?

—————————————————————

A phenomenon that’s taken place the last 3 u.s. rate hikes. The Canadian dollar picks up ground after the fed raises. Only three weeks ago the FED raised raised and the Canadian dollar picks up $0.04 since then.

Makes lots of sense to me.

#99 LivinLarge on 01.06.18 at 12:00 am

Terry, “So how does the unemployment rate go down when all of the jobs created are merely accounting for retiring/new workers?”… me thinks you are presuming that an unemployment rate includes all people not working and alas it doesn’t. There are many types of non working individuals excluded from the total before calculating the unemployment rate.

So, say after a prolonged recession with a long period of job losses, the “unemployment rate” can stall and drop even though the actual number of folks not working continues to increase.

#100 Cathy Groom on 01.06.18 at 12:04 am

My university educated kids are working part time minimum wage jobs…and so are alot of their friends. Just at the Blood Donor’s clinic today and the gentleman next to me has kids the same age…and said in jest that they will need o knock him off to buy a house. How is this a good economy?

#101 M on 01.06.18 at 12:04 am

fake economy Gartho.
Include the amount of debt propping everything and you’ll see there is not much value anywhere.
Tesla = US stock market=canadian stock market=us economy=canadian economy.
housing is just easier to see because somehow it’s easier to relate it to real things ..like slary growth, savings..etc.
If you apply the same approach to the boyz on Bay street…it’s a disaster. The entire financial industry is a ponzi scheme with banks swimming naked.

The difference is that this time canada will pop first being essentially a RE ponzi.

I will not be surprised if Canada crashing will not actually initiate US crashing. Most of the $ swimming in Canada are US ownership anyway.

#102 Bit Trader on 01.06.18 at 12:14 am

#83 ww1 on 01.05.18 at 10:38 pm

#73 USD vs CAD on 01.05.18 at 9:28 pm
Can anyone explain why the USD flounders while they are raising rates, cutting taxes and have lower unemployment. But the CAD spikes higher on lesser positive data.?

When studying Forex, you need to compare the CAD to other major international currencies. That’s the only way to understand changes in the USD/CAD rates. On a global basis, there is no CAD spike.

As to the USD floundering, consider it in terms of something that China is accused of – currency manipulation. Hmmmmm ….
**************
Dear ww1, Seriously, if anybody here knew the answer, they wouldn’t be here.
The logical, but God only knows, answer is that the US is light-years beyond flat broke, and there is a madman at the helm whose maniacal plans will force the FED to try and sell a $hitload of bonds to the same foreign countries that he constantly $hits on. This, of course, assumes that his generals don’t mutiny, in which case the FED starts selling war bonds to fund ww3. The traders leave the CAD alone cuz we’re nice.

#103 Chelsea on 01.06.18 at 12:16 am

Although a few weeks into the new year, there has been no big/slight drop in RE prices here in B.C. The stress test, didn’t make a difference, thus far. They say 50,000 first time buyer’s are out from buying, so who is left? Foreigners maybe! Those that have cashed in have probably moved out of BC, invested or living in another country. BC is still overpriced, by $$$$$…. flat liner prices, hardly any detached homes selling … what is everyone waiting for… really… an earthquake!

#104 Smartalox on 01.06.18 at 12:19 am

Flop @#78

That house in Coquitlam is funny: the assessment comes in at $110k less than expected, so the seller cuts their axing price by the Same number.

Amateurs! But then again, the whole ‘buy in July 2016, list in July 2017’ made that pretty clear from the start. They’re probably losing a ton in costs while it sits, and as the sellers ‘wait for the market to come back’. I sure hope that they’re renting it, at least.

They might get some attention if they lop off $110k more,

Still, that would only be 4% below assessed. if they really want to sell, they should cut it by $220k, 8% below assessed, and 14% below their original ask. Like on the West side.

That’s the new math, people.

#105 Chelsea on 01.06.18 at 12:19 am

B.C. Real Estate is stale …. flat liner prices, hardly any detached homes selling… new listings zippo… is B.C. RE pooched!

#106 Ian on 01.06.18 at 12:43 am

#73 USD CAD

I think it’s the beginning of a USD crisis. At the very least it’s likely the beginning of a long bear which started in early 2017. The last major USD bear (85-95) was ten years in length.

I think the market is finally waking up the the fact that the Fed can’t just keep reflating over and over with QE. The next QE they won’t be able to do, as they have little room to reduce rates and they already are holding 4 trillion that they are terrified to release. Yellen said they would trickle it back into the bond market but they simply aren’t.

#107 Smoking Man on 01.06.18 at 2:07 am

Shell companies. Who are the owners in Canada. We will never know. It’s protected info.

What if a shit load of money laundering globalist dudes from other parts of the world desired 1.2 million dollar home in freezing Toronto thinking that an ocean view in Corona Del Mar. 5 million dollar shacks were a bit too much.

Stats can would never know. And our progressive leader of the globalist agenda will never make those identies public knowledge.

My logic says Canadian Real estate is doomed. My fun foil fadora is thinking. Hum.

#108 Smoking Man on 01.06.18 at 3:18 am

The Truth where can you find it.

It sits at the bottom on an empty bottle of bourbon. Your eye ball stuck in the opening trying to figure out who finished it. It serenely weren’t you.

Been getting emails of late from long turm blog dogs. Smokey were are you. Little posts with no good stuff.

Dogs I found the truth. A few carpet burns on my bald head as evidence.

Truth is I’m almost a non drinker and am very happy at the moment. To much sun shine and warmth.

Not a good recipe for good writing. Boring as shit.

Sorry but it is what it is.

A relapse is very possible. But unlikely.

I love you all. Praise the 12 steps and God.

#109 westcdn on 01.06.18 at 5:39 am

I am pondering why the US$ is falling relative to other currencies. Could it be that the world is about to be flooded with US$ given Trump’s budget? I also think Trump’s frontal brain lobes are failing – how else can you explain his behavior other than being an a-hat. Stupid is what stupid does, unfortunately, we the people pay the price.

Bank prime Interest rates higher than $% and oil prices greater than $60 WTI, I say stayed tuned and get ready to buy US treasuries.

In a lot of ways, I fundamentally agree with SCM tirades against elitism. These people don’t think their farts stink – they should be respected as perfume to the ordinary. I have trouble with the mindset of elites – they seem to think they are irreplaceable and a gift to mankind whereas many are parasites and just anal.

This Tim Horton’s fiasco is a study case. We have one who champions Joyce Jr as a philanthropist and a business success. I see a shallow person who wants his name on buildings, is pretentious, isn’t charitable to his employees and feathers his bed first. Inherited wealth is a cancer on society because it prevents the learning of common sense – talk about entitlement! I believe charity begins at home and I would take of my employees first to what is reasonable.

2018 is not off to a good start. I am looking at higher utility bills, property taxes and income taxes. I am budgeting an extra $1,000 for these suckers. It wouldn’t be so bad if people appreciated where these $ are coming – my hide. I am down in an up market but I expect that to change. I started reading the “Wolf of Wall Street” and it looks promising. I always get a kick out of empty suits, inflated egos and fear of failure unless they are my boss – I have always had to answer.

The 1000 yard stare for the basement dwelling snowflakes.
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=nRcqkOxl&id=61C6E635DDB0109770F47E0C426886CA8598208F&thid=OIP.nRcqkOxlfAPefVh2v_x3_wHaIu&q=1000+yard+stare+pics&simid=608036885747469697&selectedIndex=128&ajaxhist=0
One of my favorite pics – the young kid could have been my father.

I remember a story why the British Empire failed. During WW1, the best elites died at the front whereas the lessor elites sent surrogates to die for them. Guess who inherited the levers of power?

I still cannot leave crypto alone. This blurb is funny
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=186&v=aeMv9uKpAZg

#110 under the radar on 01.06.18 at 6:16 am

“Most rentals are now exercises in negative cash flow. – Garth”
I think you mean , the over leveraged condo’s or SFH purchased in the last couple of years.
The bought and paid for inventory purchased pre- mania are cash registers.

#111 ee paulette on 01.06.18 at 7:07 am

“A readers’ poll, not me, forecasted a Con win. BTW, my last political gig was as a Lib MP. ”
™Garth™ Turner , Speaker of the (crazy) House

“To improve is to change, so to be perfect is to have changed often”
£ Winston Churchill £, British Prime Minister

#112 Wrk.dover on 01.06.18 at 7:12 am

So, the millennial I endorsed, crashed and burned. I do feel the shame. I’m sorry folks. Things can happen beyond your control when you take a controversial stance. Politics 101. Time for me to play dead, just like the electorate. Final result, negative for me. Learning through experience though.

#113 ~=¢Rooster¢=~ on 01.06.18 at 8:00 am

#4 -=jwk=- on 01.05.18 at 6:29 pm

The country has apparently turned into a jobs machine. Exports are swelling just as the real estate market starts to go down……..Why do we keep electing liberal governments when this keeps happening?!? Need to get rid of JT, STAT!!
oh, wait. nevermind.
************
Dear -=jwk =-
The combination form is genius!
As a slightly inflexible, non-racist you appear willing to concede that giving credit where credit “may be” due does not automatically make one a toque wearing Bolshevik.
Although JT makes me moist, the Fall Economic Report* gives me pause. I don’t claim to have any great powers of economic insight, but the data just doesn’t seem sufficient to support the grandiose claims made. Check it out for yourself though, comrade.

*https://www.budget.gc.ca/fes-eea/2017/docs/statement-enonce/toc-tdm-en.html

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.18 at 8:09 am

@#100 Cathy Groom
“My university educated kids are working part time minimum wage jobs…and so are alot of their friends.”
+++++

Well , as cruel as it sounds.
Either they spent 4 years learning skills that no one wants OR all the other kids at uni took the same courses.
Tell them to go to trades school.
Canada is screaming for trades and as an apprentice they will be paid to learn unlike the “degree factories” that pump out thousands of kids each year with diplomas and debt.

“Earn while you learn” is my motto.
Never go into debt for an education.

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.18 at 8:18 am

@#84 and 84 Screwed Canadian Millenial
DELETED
++++++

Stubbornly persistant little ingrate arent you.
Have you grovelled yet?

#116 dharma bum on 01.06.18 at 8:40 am

Calm down.
Everything will be fine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufcDsxr2RFs

#117 Ian on 01.06.18 at 9:15 am

#109 westcdn

Trump’s recent tax reform will cause deficits to explode. There are no spending cuts. Very similar situation to the Reagan years where David Stockman’s books (Reagan budget director, amazing books especially The Great Deformation) says that when they tried to cut spending, everyone in the Senate and House went all NIMBY and said ‘you can’t cut spending in my backyard!’.

So the US can’t cut spending. They never can. Meanwhile the debt is $21 trillion. Inflation is much higher than officially reported, confirmed in poll after poll of average working folk who know rising prices are killing them.

10 year yields in the US are starting to light on fire again. Press thinks it’s about Jerome Powell coming in, either way US keeps raising rates in 2018.

How can they have raised rates four times since Trump won and the USD index has gone nothing but down since Jan 2017? The only explanation is the market is starting to seriously distrust the USD. And it’s just starting. The UUP chart is a nightmare!

#118 !∆ Bit Trader !∆ on 01.06.18 at 9:16 am

#109 westcdn on 01.06.18 at 5:39 am

I still cannot leave crypto alone. This blurb is funny
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=186&v=aeMv9uKpAZg
∆∆∆∆∆∆∆

2 thumbs up!

IMHO Funniest skit on SNL since the Bass-O-Matic

ps Smokey said the “S” word :{ ball or a strike?

#119 Ian on 01.06.18 at 9:19 am

#112 wrkdover

Don’t feel badly. There’s a peaceful serenity on this blog with a certain individual gone on a peaceful Saturday am lol.

#120 Ace Goodheart on 01.06.18 at 9:44 am

RE: #16 The Jaguar:

“What’s wrong with part time jobs?”

The worst job available in North America is the full time, salary position.

You are basically a slave.

As soon as the company can stop counting your hours (because they have to pay for them) they can stop treating you as a human being.

Salary means you work all the time, every day, whenever they want.

#121 LivinLarge on 01.06.18 at 9:52 am

“These people don’t think their farts stink ” on the contrary, we don’t actually care if the plebs can smell or not.

#122 =Ohm My= on 01.06.18 at 10:05 am

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.18 at 8:09 am

@#100 Cathy Groom
“My university educated kids are working part time minimum wage jobs…and so are alot of their friends.”
+++++

Tell them to go to trades school.
Canada is screaming for trades and and as an apprentice they will be paid to learn……

$&¢

Screaming loud enough that temporary foreign workers are filling the gaps. I have absolutely no problem with that. What disturbs me, and admittedly this is 2nd-hand news, but from two different sources in two major cities. Teams of TFW are doing electrical work in large commercial reno projects who apparently couldn’t string a Xmas tree. No permits, no questions. Business owners are blind, or turning a blind eye. Where is ESA when you need them? Crawling up some homeowner’s rec room for changing a light fixture.

#123 rknusa on 01.06.18 at 10:10 am

has everyone forgot about NAFTA?

I thought Poloz was hinting he wants to wait and see what happens to Nafta negotiations and effect of new mortgage stress test

yes more rate increases but during the last two quarters of 2018 it would be foolish now given the above factors

#124 Tony on 01.06.18 at 10:11 am

Re: #119 Ian on 01.06.18 at 9:15 am

Thereby lies the advantage the small investor has. It will be like stealing just as the yield curve is going to invert (they’ll never let it invert) in America they’ll kill the dollar which will lower short term rates much faster than long term rates. This is the point in time you want to go all in on the precious metals or all in short the U.S. dollar.

#125 crossbordershopper on 01.06.18 at 10:36 am

dont believe the unemployment numbers or the inflation numbers, wait a month or two and you will see after the higher minimum wages and interest rates. the story will be the bank of canada is happy with the 1.2% annual inflation rate, like whatever.
5 year goverments are going over 2%, so the pref resets are looking good. for conserative investors, but then trudeau with increase the inclusion rate of capital gain to 66% and still water down the divident tax credit. Do people realize that over the past 20 years, the gross up has gone from 50% to only 15%, i can see the day when its like close to zero, he doesnt care where you get your income he needs tax revenue like badly or in trump language biggly.

#126 Doug in London on 01.06.18 at 10:37 am

But big job growth means the economy is expanding and employers are more confident, which will likely push Canadian equities higher as bond prices fall.
———————————————————–
Seems like, as the year unfolds, it will be a good time to cash in some of those expensive equities and buy bond funds as they go on sale. You should always buy low and sell high, is that right?

#127 Blackdog on 01.06.18 at 10:40 am

I understand this is your blog Garth and you can (and do) do as you please. As a late Gen Xer, I am not commenting with regards to SMC’s viewpoints, but I fail to see the need to allow others to post rude, bullying comments directed towards SCM while SCM’s comments show up as “DELETED”. If you don’t want SCM here, then why not delete his/her comments without making a big show of it? And please consider deleting the comments of other posters who continue to deride him/her. To do otherwise makes you look like the lead bully in the schoolyard. Just sayin….

#128 Big Daddy on 01.06.18 at 10:48 am

Gotta disagree on gold long term Garth…….it has performed much better than a balanced portfolio with a 6% return. I get a crazy kicker living in a country where gold is a currency and cash over the counter anytime. The currency I purchase physical gold with has also gained 20% on the $C taking my returns past 30%. Gold is a.hedge on inflation and depreciating currency….of that there is no doubts. And Bwahahahaha……I own a pied a terre in a Canadian city which is now 54% PRC …..and Trudeau plans to double the population……and I live where all the Chinese want to live…..? I’m solid gold man. The built in demand is socking dough into my pocket like crazy every year. So G…..it doesn’t hurt to specialize…..you just have to know how……and it sure as hell isn’t buying a Russell 2000 index etf when only 357 stocks on the board are profitable. You need to put me in your payroll. I have big shoes…..I’ll kick some ass.

#129 Doug in London on 01.06.18 at 10:49 am

@tccontrarian, post #69:
Yup, as I’ve said here many, many, many, many times invest like an engine governor that responds to a drop in speed by opening the throttle to allow more fuel/air mixture into the combustion chambers, and when the speed goes up it closes the throttle to reduce the amount of fuel/air mixture and reduce the power output.

@Tasties, post #93:
Yes indeed, and when the value of those preferred share ETFs goes up you can cash some in and buy bond funds as they go on sale, which is likely to happen.

#130 Smoking Man on 01.06.18 at 11:01 am

#85 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 10:43 pm
DELETED
…..

Ha ha it’s called the dog house. Not everyone gets a trophy in the real world.

#131 Blueb on 01.06.18 at 11:02 am

#22 Smoking Man –
Ha ha. I sold at peek real estate and now I’m living the dream.

Me too..
https://www.google.com.mx/search?client=ms-android-samsung&dcr=0&ei=RPJQWu2tIofVzgL4h5zAAw&q=temp+cuernavaca+morelos&oq=temp+Cuernavaca+&gs_l=psy-ab.1.0.33i160k1.143566.148322.0.150499.11.11.0.0.0.0.219.1242.0j9j1.10.0….0…1.1.64.psy-ab..1.10.1239…0j0i20i263k1j0i10k1j0i22i30k1j0i22i10i30k1j0i13k1j0i13i10k1.0.T_PW-Cx26PQ

#132 NoName on 01.06.18 at 11:05 am

#108 Smoking Man on 01.06.18 at 3:18 am

Truth is I’m almost a non drinker and am very happy at the moment. To much sun shine and warmth.

That just vitamine D talking.

#133 conan on 01.06.18 at 11:09 am

RE#109 westcdn on 01.06.18 at 5:39 am

” I also think Trump’s frontal brain lobes are failing.”

Depending on the fall out from this most recent book we could be in a crazy situation.

Hey, lets all go brain dead and elect “Caligula” to be POTUS. What could go wrong?

Does he go for war with N korea in order to push all talk of impeachment to the back burner? I say he will.

The latest Federal push back against Marijuana could lead to major animosity with certain key States in the Federation.

We could see a collapse of the USA as we know it, if they can not get Trump out of office. He is that dangerous.

#134 PastThePeak on 01.06.18 at 11:21 am

#82 Two-thirds

Fully agree, but that is the game all governments play. Take credit for current success and lay blame on previous administration for failure. The Donald claims credit for each positive movement in the Dow, but only in last few weeks have Repubs enacted any legislation that would affect the economy.

In our case, as you said, Justin’s govt is deficit spending hugely into a growing global economy with still very low rates, so it isn’t at all unexpected that jobs would increase. 1/3 of them are direct govt hires.

Government policies (outside of the helicopter money) don’t affect the short term much, but rather the long term. Fast increases in debt and more regulations don’t lead to stronger growth.

#135 rainclouds on 01.06.18 at 11:34 am

@#100 Cathy Groom
“My university educated kids are working part time minimum wage jobs…and so are alot of their friends.”

Reaffirming Fartz Point:

Buddy who runs plumbing crews on DT Van condo construction mentioned (unsolicited) yesterday:
” I cant wait for a recession so I have a resume pile to pick and choose, The idiot kids spend their time on their effing phone, are too stressed to come to work, reek of weed after coffee break, $30 bucks an hour but no alternative”

Few lessons:
1: Dont buy a DT Van condo
2: Get training in a field where there is a FUTURE.
3: Work like it means something

#136 Fish on 01.06.18 at 11:38 am

#127 crossbordershopper on 01.06.18 at 10:36 am

like donations

#137 El Presidente Trump on 01.06.18 at 11:42 am

#135 conan on 01.06.18 at 11:09 am

RE#109 westcdn on 01.06.18 at 5:39 am

” I also think Trump’s frontal brain lobes are failing.”

Depending on the fall out from this most recent book we could be in a crazy situation.

Hey, lets all go brain dead and elect “Caligula” to be POTUS. What could go wrong?

Does he go for war with N korea in order to push all talk of impeachment to the back burner? I say he will.

The latest Federal push back against Marijuana could lead to major animosity with certain key States in the Federation.

We could see a collapse of the USA as we know it, if they can not get Trump out of office. He is that dangerous.

I’m like really really smart.. and I’ve go a big button.. actually I’m a genius.. a stable genius.

#138 IHCTD9 on 01.06.18 at 11:47 am

#209 Wrk.dover on 01.05.18 at 1:18 pm
Re: #173 IHCTD9 on 01.05.18 at 10:56 am

No hate going on here Buddy. That is a messy emotion, best lived without! The old fart reference was in relation to your age vs SCM. I am yet older, wrinkly and balding like Crusty the Clown, if that makes your day. Still doing multiple one hand push-ups though. I am saddened by your tunnel vision of the big picture. This essay…#151 Ace Goodheart on 01.05.18 at 9:20 am…draws the picture of what you are inadvertently supporting with your adamant mantra. My trade wages were always based just above minimum, somewhat. Boosted by unions (not a member) partially. Without either supports, I would have been homeless before that was even a thing. Every one wants my money, no one wants to pay me with theirs.

I just like facts and precise measurements, not emotions, or opinions. That is my whole thing. Make peace with logic. Live well. Help somebody. Even SCM

———-

Well, if the above is true; we must be long lost brothers. I utterly dispensed with hate and anger over a decade ago, you are right – not worth it! That goes for work, family, politics, all societal morality I might disagree with – everything. I also like to accept the apparent current facts as such, and take a long time to reconcile them into my world view. I have made changes to how I think because of doing this. I think I have gained wisdom as well.

The big picture is a work in progress. Not sure if I’ll ever make progress beyond what I already think – that is, that the planet is a battleground for forces we can’t see, but we are participants none the less, and we “win” or “lose” via our deeds on an individual basis without ever seeing the engagement.

Politics to me represents my concern for my fellow Citizens. But for last 15 years, they know better than me. They may be right, but I will vote and prepare for the possibility that instead, I am right. I will also have fun on the WWW with the ongoing political saga!

Oh, and I also have a beautiful, clean, fully bald head, lift every other day, live minimally (well imho), and give to others both of my time and my money.

#139 april on 01.06.18 at 11:49 am

#103 – you must be a realtor or protecting an asset. Apparently, we won’t know for months yet how the stress test is working, some say give it 6 months.

#140 april on 01.06.18 at 11:54 am

#98 From what I’ve heard the Canadian dollar is gaining only cause US dollar is going the other way.

#141 InvestorsFriend on 01.06.18 at 12:12 pm

Bankish and a respectful discussion with mutual learning

Bankish responded to me at 88.

You can see that while we have different approaches and views we respect each other. We have both done well.

To his 100% concentration in the banks, I say, Well done! The experts would say, well that might work in practice but it will never work in theory.

Thank you.

#142 InvestorsFriend on 01.06.18 at 12:21 pm

Think getting a Job in 1976 was so easy?

#97 Tony on 01.05.18 at 11:41 pm claimed:

In 1976 in and around the Toronto area you didn’t have to apply for a job all you had to do is say you’ll take the job the same day you showed up to tell the employer that line. Quite a different story today.

**************************************
I pointed out yesterday the official unemployment rate in Canada in 1976 was a bit over 7%. Not sure about Toronto then and now. Look here if interested in the actual facts:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/180105/dq180105a-cansim-eng.htm

In the mid 1970’s Stagflation was all the news. High inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant real growth.

By the early 1980’s unemployment in Canada was well over 10%. Help wanted signs were museum pieces.

Were you around then Tony? I was in high school in 1976 but followed the news closely.

So, I don’t think 1976 Toronto was as rosy as you think.

#143 MF on 01.06.18 at 12:22 pm

#136 PastThePeak on 01.06.18 at 11:21 am

I’m no supporter of this deficit spending nor am I any supporter of the T2 government. But the report says otherwise:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/180105/t002a-eng.htm

That’s the break down of employment by class.

You’ll see the majority of jobs created are in the private sector.

Not a shot against your post, but the people who come on here and complain about government workers being the problem for everything should move to Mogadishu (serious).

MF

#144 Nick on 01.06.18 at 12:46 pm

From a efficiency perspective that second graph is attrocoius. Do we really need to see one line for “probability for” and the exact mirror opposite for “probability against”?

Must have been a slow day in the graphics room.

#145 LivinLarge on 01.06.18 at 12:48 pm

Just because my tuckus is frozen to the sofa and I’ll not yet senile enough to venture outside at -23 and because there’s a “Friendly” with a DB pension promoting the fallacies of RSP over TFSA, I figured I would inject some sanity here. BTW, Fearless Leader outlined this issue in the last week or two so what I am about to illustrate is in reality, redundant.

Tax math is unfortunately an exercize in predicting a future state without adequate data to predict with accuracy but it’s the best we can do.

So, presuming a static state for both TFSA and RSP contributions even though we all know neither are static even today, let’s try this again.

If you put $5,000 per year in a TFSA or RSP starting at age 20 and leave it there for 45 years with a ROR OF 5.5%, retiring at 65 then you’ll have an average $1 million in the TFSA but because you also rolled your enhanced refund into the RSP let’s say you have $1.2 million there.

At 65 you withdraw 10% of acculated principal from each and ignore for a moment that somene might have a DB pension messing with gross income.

Since you’re not yet obliged to roll the RSP into a RRIF and can withdraw just what you need, let’s say both parties withdraw just 10% while continuing to earn %5.5 on remaining capital. The guy with the TFSA withdraws $100K totally tax free so that’s all net/spendable money. However the guy with the RSP takes out $120K and get’s hit with %40 taxes so nets $72K spending money. Yes, I know that %40 in stupidly low if you’re also receiving a DB pension but I did say to ignore the pension for simplicity.

Now, the guy with the $100K from the TFSA will still get the OAS and maybe the IS but the guy with the $120 from the RSP won’t see either of those…likely, presuming they even still exist and that is not certain.

So, forget that foolish concept that we are ad hoc investment coordinators for the feds and focus simply on what you end up with in your jeans each year to live on and it doesn’t take a stats degree to see that maxing a TFSA each year BEFORE contributing to an RSP will deliver far more spendable coin.

It is and always will be a matter of how much you net each year and never how much you earn.

RSPs are not “BAD” places to put your money but they are simply not the best nor most advatageous place either…your mattress or GIC or HISA are worse.

#146 maxx on 01.06.18 at 12:52 pm

#4 -=jwk=- on 01.05.18 at 6:29 pm

“Why do we keep electing liberal governments when this keeps happening?!? Need to get rid of JT, STAT!!

oh, wait. nevermind.”

Let’s see if the ministry of silly socks, tats and “now you see ’em, now you don’t!” family fortunes jockeys the CAD “Looney” to parity with the USD, a currency that looks like real money.

Should that ever happen, I’ll be the first to admit that I’m impressed, but I’m convinced that the jury is out for a long while on this one……NAFTA, TPP, national debt and deficit, consumer finances in the proverbial toilet, idiotic tax spending on touchy-feely, sunny ways vanity projects…….

If memory serves CAD/USD parity happened during a conservative…………oh wait, never mind.

#147 ~ John Dough ~ on 01.06.18 at 1:26 pm

#145 MF on 01.06.18 at 12:22 pm

#136 PastThePeak on 01.06.18 at 11:21 am
I’m no supporter of this deficit spending nor am I any supporter of the T2 government. But the report says otherwise:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/180105/t002a-eng.htm
You’ll see the majority of jobs created are in the private sector.

**********
Well….. maybe. The problem for me is the standard error is greater than the purported increase in private sector jobs. All stats need to be taken with pinch of salt, but that one needs a bag of driveway de-icer.
The only sector in the whole shebang that might have some truthy growth is Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing. How is that a good thing?

#148 Ogopogo on 01.06.18 at 1:40 pm

“Balance, diversification, liquidity – these things will sustain you. Start today.”

Words to live by. Never happier being a renter in the realtor-infested burg of Kelowna. Deaf to the propaganda of our local corrupt media I’ve racked up gains far ahead of anyone who’s bought in the last 7 years. Housing cultists never learn.

#149 I’m stupid on 01.06.18 at 1:45 pm

#114 crowdedelevaterfartz

You’re absoulty correct. The kicker is that the trades not only give apprentices the opportunity to get paid while they learn but they offer the best chances to actually own a business. If you’re a young hard working person you can make 200-300k a year. It’s not easy money and the job title isn’t fancy but you won’t need to worry about money.

My brother is a prime example, the hardest working person I’ve ever met. He started as an apprentice at 17. By 23 he was licenced making 100k a year in 1999. He’s now pushing 40, mortgage free making 250k a year.

He’s young and free. In what other industry is that possible? He’s no exception either, I know hundreds of guys, myself included, in the same situation. All you need to do to be successful in the trades is want to work and stay away from drugs and alcohol.

#150 Sean Moore on 01.06.18 at 1:53 pm

Sell the house and buy Bitcoin… Kidding.
Actually joked about that about year back…. I was kidding then too. Go figure.

#151 Smoking Man on 01.06.18 at 2:01 pm

The globalist plan to destroy small biz notches it up.

http://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4475238?__twitter_impression=true

#152 Dan on 01.06.18 at 2:16 pm

Is it possible that the reason that the Canadian economy is doing so well is because of the following:
1) Excess government money being spent (deficit financing) [temporary]
2) Flood of money flowing in to pot stock IPOs being spent on buying greenhouses, setting up shops , etc. [bubble]
3) Strong commodity prices throughout most sectors from Coal to Zinc [cyclical]
4) Small business trying to pay out their family members in 2017 prior to the new Morneau rules. [finished after 2017]
5) Increased immigration [artificial growth must look at GDP per capita not total GDP]
6) Relatively poor previous year stats

In reality, these are good times and not times the government should be spending what they don’t have. Our balance of trade continues to worsen and our GDP per person is actually stalling unlike America where it continues to grow.

#153 LivinLarge on 01.06.18 at 2:26 pm

“In what other industry is that possible? “…unfortunately, the commissioned mutual fund flogging industry has been at least as lucrative and requires dramatically less education and experience to get into.

The mutual fund, the investment that keeps on giving…just not to the owner.

#154 TGIS on 01.06.18 at 2:32 pm

#146 Nick on 01.06.18 at 12:46 pm

From a efficiency perspective that second graph is attrocoius. Do we really need to see one line for “probability for” and the exact mirror opposite for “probability against”?

Must have been a slow day in the graphics room.

*********
Everybody has slow day. The 3rd variable “probability of a cut” has been at 0 since September when the rates were raised. Looks like 10% were too busy reviewing the lunar landing films to notice.

#155 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.06.18 at 2:34 pm

DELETED

#156 technical analysis? on 01.06.18 at 2:48 pm

Interest rates are going HIGHER.. a LOT higher.

Poloz and the FED are so far behind the curve it’s not funny. they will raise 1% in 2018 and another 1% in 2019.
and STILL be short of the mark.

inflation pressures have been compressed since the mid-90’s. you’re about to see an explosion upwards this coming decade.

#157 Tony on 01.06.18 at 4:26 pm

Re: #154 Dan on 01.06.18 at 2:16 pm

Apparently there were lots of jobs in Alberta. It must be all the food banks they’re building and hiring staff for them. The rest of the jobs must be more lawyers to handle the huge increase in personal bankruptcies in Alberta. Commodity prices have risen slightly due to the fall in the U.S. dollar, demand for commodities has fallen each year.

#158 Tony on 01.06.18 at 4:40 pm

Re: #144 InvestorsFriend on 01.06.18 at 12:21 pm

I think I was in grade 12 that year at Cedarbrae Collegiate. All I did was play pinball at Shea’s Cedarbrae Bowl across the street in the strip mall. That year you could get any job you wanted the same day you saw it advertised.

#159 AGuyInVancouver on 01.06.18 at 7:27 pm

#97 Tony
Is the story that different? There were so many retail and restaurantHelp Wanted signs out this past Fall, it’s amazing any of them made it through the holidays. I mentioned before even Starbucks has baristas Wanted signs up at every store. Up until 2017 I rarely saw one.

#160 LivinLarge on 01.06.18 at 8:03 pm

“There were so many retail and restaurantHelp Wanted signs out this past Fall, it’s amazing any of them made it through the holidays. I mentioned before even Starbucks has baristas Wanted signs up at every store.”. There’s one of those unalienable constants in life that people with more money to spend will spend more money.

#161 Maxwell C. on 01.06.18 at 10:44 pm

Never a word about Vancouver….