The storm

Early last year the meme spread that anyone who didn’t buy a house in the GTA, pronto, never would. By March the FOMO was flowing and prices increased 30% year/year. This blog told buyers they were greater fools. And now we know.

The average detached lost $338,000 in value between March and Christmas, a 21% drubbing despite an end-of-the-year recovery. Of course, that doesn’t tell the whole story. To buy the average $1.578 million house required a land transfer tax payment of $56,000. Poof. Gone. Plus selling the property (now worth $1.25 million) would involve handing over $62,500 in commission. Plus $8,125 in HST.

For the first time in the life of most buyers, detached houses in the country’s biggest, hottest market ended the year worth less than when it began. Despite the historic price explosion of the first four months of 2017, properties in 416 shed almost 3% of their value while the burbs fared slightly better at a negative 2.5%. Sales were down too. More than 92,000 listings changed hands, a drop of over 18% from the year before.

Even more depressing, if you happened to ignore this omniscient blog and bought when the media told you to, is this current market snapshot:

In December sales continued to decline, down 7% year/year, while homeowners began panic-listing. The number of new properties hitting the market shot up more than 50%, bringing total active listings bloating higher by 172%. Wow. Almost 13,000 houses for sale compared to just 4,700 last year. The average price was dragged down by detached deals, but pushed higher by condos. Just like in Vancouver. The big reset is starting.

It’s a reminder of how human nature doesn’t change and, therefore, neither do markets. It’s never different this time. When an asset rises (bungalows, Bitcoin, weed stocks, Nortel) people lust after it, pay a premium and say it’ll rise forever – especially when supply is limited and competition fierce. When an asset falls, it’s shunned because it’s obviously going to zero and is no longer cool. Sales drop along with prices, even when there’s more supply, less competition and better value. We are herd animals. Tribal. When you add in peer-to-peer social media validation of silly ‘facts’ and fake news like foreigners buying all the houses, it’s greater fool time.

Anyway, this is not just a Toronto story. It’s everywhere.

In Vancouver an average detached house lost 6.5% of its value last year, as the market tilted to condos – simply by virtue of price. Single-family home sales have been tepid for well over a year, while inventory increased and the top end wilted. In the region during the whole year only 2,434 single family homes sold, the worst showing since the depression of 2008 and a significant 38% below activity in 2015 – when FOMO was sweeping the Lower Mainland.

And Calgary? Big mess there. Last month new listings were up 23% while average prices tumbled 8.64%. In fact, housing globally is losing its lustre as money flows back into financial assets and interest rates start to normalize. Global Property Guide this week reports prices in a majority of regions have slowed or gone into reverse. “Globally housing markets are slowing sharply,” it says, with 21 of 47 dropping at the end of 2017.

So 2018 begins. As predicted. Like the Nor’easter in the Maritimes this week, we have the perfect storm gathering over the Canadian real estate market. Interest rates will rise at least three times in the next 12 months, both in Canada and the States. Bond yields are on the march higher and will result in more expensive mortgages, rising above 4% – or double the level of early 2016. The lefties running BC are about to bring in a hammering speculation tax and inflate the Chinese Dudes tax at the same time Van’s empty-headed empty-house tax deflates prices there. The federal banking stress test is already forcing buyers to qualify at 2% higher levels and will restrict credit by up to a fifth. Canadian household debt just achieved a scary new, nose-bleed high, while T2 taxes and Lib minimum wage hikes inflate prices and dampen growth.

Did I forget anything? Oh yeah, it’s minus thirty and we’re all miserable. Blame Trump.

275 comments ↓

#1 TRUMP on 01.04.18 at 6:12 pm

Hey … Dont blame me for the cold weather. But I will take credit for “Making America Great Again”. (tax cuts, illegal imigration, etc.)

By the way is your corrupt Canadian government being led by the drama school teacher “TRUDEAU” making CANADA great again??

Doesnt look good from down here.

#2 Jungle on 01.04.18 at 6:19 pm

Wealthy Tim Hortons franchise are bullying minimum wage workers, says Kathleen Wynne. That’s not fair.

Socialism is here now, prepare for change.

#3 Eaglebay on 01.04.18 at 6:20 pm

About yesterday’s blog…
I don’t know how you can put up with many of the comments on the blog Garth. Unreal.
The minimum wage at $15.00 is an increase of 29% from 2017. I’m assuming that the higher income will increase the tax burden of minimum wage workers by at least 30% or more as the various level of governments increase the income tax burden as they usually do.
It will also affect the PST and the GST as prices get adjusted higher by businesses providing goods and services. So, the province of Ontario, from which I moved away in 1991, and the federal government will benefit the most and the consumers are again on the hook. Indirect taxation would you say. There will also be an increase in CPP and EI contributions.
Then the workers making $15.00 now will certainly demand an increase and the ones earning $18.00 and the ones earning $20.00 and so on and so on.
Why do the governments have to interfere in people’s lives so much? Isn’t it up to the individuals to take care of themselves? I did and so did many of my peers.

#4 Bill Grable on 01.04.18 at 6:22 pm

Would someone stop this movie……please! I’ve had enough, how about you?

Mr. Turner will have to get Amazon outriders, if things get tricky. They will be there to fight off people desperate to save their fiscal souls, and get some time with our genial host.

Bandit has more sense, than a lot of ‘investors’.

#5 Jungle on 01.04.18 at 6:22 pm

We will see average prices of 2015 for Toronto detach, probably by end of next summer.

The yoy for April is going to be down 25%, media will be all over this, sentiment will be crushed, everyone will know.

#6 For those about to flop... on 01.04.18 at 6:23 pm

Is there a problem with Vancouver real estate?

Geez,I wish someone had warned me earlier…

M43AZ

#7 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 6:24 pm

“Minimum wage is not meant to be a living wage”

What a great line when you’ve screwed up the economy so badly that millions of adults are now working minimum wage jobs. And entire industries are so dependent on a poverty level minimum wage, that apparently raising it brings economic apocalypse.

Minimum wage was always meant to be a living wage.

https://imgur.com/SWkZKvr

I hope housing crashes and burns. The sooner the better. What the hell were people thinking spending so much money on particle board in this god forsaken frozen hellscape.

And blame mills all you want, but as always it was upper middle class speculators. Just like in the States.

House flippers triggered the US housing market crash, not poor subprime borrowers
https://qz.com/1064061/house-flippers-triggered-the-us-housing-market-crash-not-poor-subprime-borrowers-a-new-study-shows/

SCM out.

#8 David on 01.04.18 at 6:24 pm

Detached still WAY TOO EXPENSIVE. Can’t afford them. And recovery started in Dec? Geez that was fast. Oh and great now condo prices skyrocketed so can’t afford that either.

#9 Jungle on 01.04.18 at 6:25 pm

After three hikes from boc this year means stress test will be 5.75%? Good lord housing does not look good. A recession maybe?

#10 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 01.04.18 at 6:25 pm

The lefties running BC are about to bring in a hammering speculation tax and inflate the Chinese Dudes tax at the same time Van’s empty-headed empty-house tax deflates prices there.
………………………….

If, as you say, the Chinese Dudes are not a factor in the Vancouver market then the spec tax should have little or no
effect…… FYI, I Got my BC tax assessment for my Kondo in Kelowna today and it is up 25% over last year.

Misguided people believing foreigners are responsible for high prices also believe the Chinese Dudes tax will tank the market. So they stop buying. Market falls. Human nature. – Garth

#11 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 6:25 pm

Kathleen Wynne is absolutely right. Nice to see politicians fighting for workers.

Premier Wynne accuses Tim Hortons’ founders’ children of bullying employees
https://globalnews.ca/news/3946014/premier-wynne-tim-hortons-minimum-wage/

This will propel her to victory.

#12 Jamie Dimon on 01.04.18 at 6:27 pm

If real estate is slowly becoming a buyers market and you are saving for a down payment but doing it rather slowly to make sure your investment accounts are healthy what is a wise strategy for this? You would need rather quick access to funds if an opportunity presented itself but also something quite stable so you dont pull out in a trough and lose a bunch of dough. Money market account? Bonds? Blog dogs?…

#13 Linda on 01.04.18 at 6:28 pm

Just wondering how the decline in prices mentioned above doesn’t translate into lower average price from 2016 to 2017? Noticed that the 2017 number is not quite 5K higher than 2016. Were those numbers supposed to be reversed?

As for the decline in prices, as stated in this very blog the actual value of the asset is only realized if & when it is sold. It would be very interesting to see just what the true numbers were for properties listed/sold over the past few years. One wonders if that data even exists any longer given how the numbers have been manipulated over the years.

#14 WelcometoSlurrey on 01.04.18 at 6:32 pm

Cherry picking Mr Turner ? Slurrey and the Fraser Valley are up 15-20% from last year. As well a one year snapshot of YVR doesn’t mean much. Well over 60% increase since 2014 – ahem , when we were talking about a correction at that time …………

#15 down_boy on 01.04.18 at 6:34 pm

Now that we have terrified bankers with blockchain, let us work toward replacing government with AI.

Could a robot do worse? Unlikely. More pragmatic? Indubitably.

#16 Ian on 01.04.18 at 6:34 pm

The fun is just beginning now that it’s Happy B-20 New Year. I noticed on Zolo today that GTA sold properties are 1300 and change, a 13 month low. Love it. Q1 should set a record inventory-to-sales gap.

#17 Trading Naked on 01.04.18 at 6:38 pm

Everybody’s dogpiling onto that ONE Tim Horton’s franchise in Cobourg because the owners are rich and famous. What about all the other franchisees? Aren’t they cutting hours/workers, too? Let’s pretend that the Joyces said, “in light of the current minimum wage increase, we’re going to pay our current staff $20/hour just because we’re rich so we can.” If you were a mom ‘n’ pop franchisee in the next neighbourhood, how would that make you feel? People call the Joyces bullies. But wouldn’t it upset the balance of things if they didn’t cut back? How would nearby mom ‘n’ pop restaurants and QSR’s feel?

#18 Ian on 01.04.18 at 6:39 pm

BoC watch…I think they are rapidly heading into another bind again, this time due to the USD index getting mashed.

Garth you pointed out the CAD strength a few days ago. We’re heading back into CAD-red zone-too strong for exporting territory again. This time it isn’t going to subside as the USD graph (UUP) is going nothing but down.

Strange isn’t it given they’ve raised rates four times since Trump won? Something is well wrong here. Not to mention US stocks just won’t stop. Crazy!

#19 Brian Woodward on 01.04.18 at 6:42 pm

I hope that the government raises the old age pensions to meet the rising prices of food due to the new min wage

Donald Trump is the new Churchill. He stands up to the bullies.

#20 SoggyShorts on 01.04.18 at 6:43 pm

For all of the people posting yesterday about small businesses just raising prices and therefore having no loss due to min wage, you need to realise that proces have limits.
You can make your own coffee for $0.50 instantly in a coffee machine before work, but maybe it’s worth it to you to have someone else make a fresh one for $1.55
What about for $1.75? or $2.00?
For many customers there is a breaking point, and rather than risk reaching that, it makes far more sense to cut benefits etc.

Lots of posts like
“if your business can’t handle a 20% increase in wages, maybe you suck?”
How about if your costs rose by 10%? or your income dropped by 10%?
“if you can’t feed your family, then maybe you suck”?
Like that? Nice, isn’t it?

#21 Larry B on 01.04.18 at 6:44 pm

You missed the “loss” of around $850M in reduced real estate fees paid due to the reduction of sales. This does not include lost land transfer tax and legal fees. This is just in the Toronto board. There will be a LOT of Audi’s coming up for sale from early lease returns.

#22 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.04.18 at 6:46 pm

DELETED

#23 Yorkville Renter on 01.04.18 at 6:48 pm

#2 – Wealthy Tim Hortons franchise are bullying minimum wage workers, says Kathleen Wynne. That’s not fair.

I wonder if Wynne and every pol will take a paycut, so the savings can help pay for those less fortunate… I wont hold my breath, but is their salary ‘fair’ when compared to all the wage slaves?

#24 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.04.18 at 6:49 pm

The genius of Timmys:
Selling donut holes for more than the donut (per weight).

#25 gary smith on 01.04.18 at 6:51 pm

Well, we are one of the “moisters” with a few dollars for a down waiting on the Vancouver market to dip. (or are we at the bottom looking up?).

We are still living in the SFH delusion for our family of four. Stable good paying jobs and family in the region- we wont be moving.

Oh Garth, its plus 5 over here.

#26 dr. talc on 01.04.18 at 6:52 pm

Tim blames Wynn.
Wynn blames Tim.
The ‘system’ is to blame

Would be better to eliminate income tax on all income below 20K

#27 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.04.18 at 6:55 pm

Apparently,
There are about 160,000,000 paper/plastic coffee cups taken to the Lower Mainland dumps every year.
About 80 for every citizen.
Think about that.

#28 NoName on 01.04.18 at 6:58 pm

Hey floppy what you do there, witch sight you are dealing, you come across as outdoorsy type, are you seeing by some chance headed to desert to sea canyons caverns and beautiful sunset/sunrise in desert. I always wanted to go there but kids… It’s bit to late to recommend but anyways, look into pink keep desert tour.
https://www.pinkjeeptours.com

#29 conan on 01.04.18 at 6:59 pm

#3 Eaglebay on 01.04.18 at 6:20 pm

“Why do the governments have to interfere in people’s lives so much?”

Because left alone society will turn into Lord of the Flies?

We just finished a two decade experiment of trickle down economics and business owners did nothing to improve the lives of the minimum wagers.

Mucky mucks got an F. That stands for flunk and a couple of other things.

After two decades of trickle down whatever and nothing trickleing downWe gave the business owners 2 decades to share the trickle down wealth and they did not. Shared zero, and content to keep min wage peeps at starvation hours and rates.

#30 paracho on 01.04.18 at 6:59 pm

It is always someone else’s fault !

#31 conan on 01.04.18 at 7:00 pm

damn needs editing

#32 Andrewski on 01.04.18 at 7:01 pm

Great to see fewer posts by those who came first. Let’s keep that info in the bedroom, not on this blog.

#33 Alberta Ed on 01.04.18 at 7:02 pm

The impact on the housing construction industry and all those enterprises associated with it could be devastating. (Someone should warn Justin, wherever he’s sulking.)

#34 Mike on 01.04.18 at 7:02 pm

GVA is still rocking and rolling. Up and up…

#35 DON on 01.04.18 at 7:02 pm

Judging by the large number of comments on yesterdays blog – people are starting to see the reality.

Normalization in many respects – especially thinking you are a genius for buying over priced housing – no brainer eh!

Time to queue Happy Housing.

I am buying popcorn stocks – he he.

#36 Brian Woodward on 01.04.18 at 7:03 pm

They should freeze the rents. The present system is not working.

#37 DON on 01.04.18 at 7:04 pm

Crowded loved the story of the young grunt – at my work most have a personal phone for chatting on all day and a work phone that they avoid. Too busy chatting.

#38 Brian Woodward on 01.04.18 at 7:04 pm

Soper said today that house prices will rise.

#39 Danny on 01.04.18 at 7:09 pm

Great summary.
Love it when you spend so much time on stating these real estate facts.
Yes you forgot to mention that the Real Estate Board mentioned today that the percentage of sales is down because fewer foreign owners buying these days.

Isn’t that interesting?

Why would their public relations folks say that ?
Of course they wouldn’t want to be transparent and shows those numbers.

Just like Trump too often having to start an unsubstantiated claim with “Believe you me”
Always be suspicious of people starting a statement with
” believe me”…..why if you don’t does that mean you are making it up?

Garth glad you don’t use the “believe me” line.

Can’t wait until March numbers on real estate are crunched.

#40 Mark's Deflation Theory not greater than Euro Union on 01.04.18 at 7:09 pm

You only know that I come here for predictions on the Loonie, Mark excepted because if the GBP isn’t able to surpass US$1.30-$1.40, why would he think that the Loonie would reach that level at the brink of a real estate collapse?

I don’t even bother with Poloz’s trolling on here scaring us to burn our Loonies for firewood because it’s cheaper that way.

I think that if the Loonie goes below US 70 cents, it will eventually rise next quarter because American manufacturers will hire Canadian firms to do manufacturing because of a lower dollar.

It would take a global recession, and another DotCom bubble in the USA to collapse the Loonie to 61.7 cents, but then again the Loonie sunk to 68 cents in early 2016 because of Poloz and US$25 oil prices….I think we should deport Poloz from the Bank of Canada.

#41 Zapstrap on 01.04.18 at 7:11 pm

Were not all miserable.

#42 Capt. Serious on 01.04.18 at 7:11 pm

As an aside, this housing crunch is shaping up to be the thing that will crush any government up for re-election in 2019. Just saying, most people vote with anger.

#43 Drill Baby Drill on 01.04.18 at 7:21 pm

In one year’s time the big issue will be “the government must bail out distressed mortgage holders”.

#44 Kelsey on 01.04.18 at 7:27 pm

After re-reading Screwed Canadian Millenials posts, I finally see the light. The Government should mandate a new policy called Maximum House Price. MHP will be low enough to ensure that someone working part time and earning $15 / hour will qualify for a mortgage under B20, regardless of where the house is located. That way everyone will have a Living Wage and own their own home, wherever they want. Conservatives won’t agree with my plan, but that’s because they don’t have a heart and are too busy exploiting the Proles.

#45 AGuyInVancouver on 01.04.18 at 7:30 pm

Misguided people believing foreigners are responsible for high prices also believe the Chinese Dudes tax will tank the market. So they stop buying. Market falls. Human nature. – Garth
_ _ _
LOL, the real reason detached is dead is that 99% of Canadians in Toronto in Vancouver can no longer afford them. Fact: the only buyers outside of the odd local millionaire are those who can spirit money out of China. The poor locals scrabble for the condo scraps.

CMHC says 95% of buyers are local. – Garth

#46 For those about to flop... on 01.04.18 at 7:30 pm

No Name pm
Hey floppy what you do there, witch sight you are dealing, you come across as outdoorsy type, are you seeing by some chance headed to desert to sea canyons caverns and beautiful sunset/sunrise in desert. I always wanted to go there but kids… It’s bit to late to recommend but anyways, look into pink keep desert tour.

///////////////////////

Hey NoName,no not doing anything too physical this time just taking it easy in Phoenix.

I have been to Arizona a couple of times before and if you get the chance ,check out the town of Sedona which is a great town to do some hiking amongst some amazing red rock formations and of course that big hole in the ground.

Not sure what it’s called ,but for now I will call it The Grand Canyon…

M43AZ

#47 Cherry Picker on 01.04.18 at 7:33 pm

I plan to live in my current house for the foreseeable future, whether it raises in value or crashes to near nothingness.
I have a balanced portfolio that grew by double digits last year.
There are eight usually busy Tim Hortons within driving distance. I don’t think any plan to close because of raising minimum wages.
I live in Canada where all the best people live.
So, I’m as happy as a little school girl.
Besides from a growing bald spot, nothing to be miserable about.

You know what that means, right? – Garth

#48 Ace Goodheart on 01.04.18 at 7:33 pm

-2 in Daytona Beach tonight. Going up to +11 tomorrow.

Kinda makes you want to head down to sunny (but unfortunately frozen) Florida for the winter.

#49 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 01.04.18 at 7:34 pm

Misguided people believing foreigners are responsible for high prices also believe the Chinese Dudes tax will tank the market. So they stop buying. Market falls. Human nature. – Garth
………………………………..

If the market falls to the point where the average family with average income can afford the average family home that would be a good thing. No ?

Unless you own one. – Garth

#50 Vanecdotal on 01.04.18 at 7:39 pm

Yep Van condos still on fire (for now). What’s the only residential RE category exempt (for now) from the 15% FBT? Condo presales. What’s the last bastion of hope in 604 for desperate local income, first time buyers? Condos/townhomes, new or resale. No mystery where the demand is right now.

Flippity flip those condo assignments offshore and let the local suckers borrow their brains out to pay the newly inflated price. Enjoy this loophole while it lasts.

Largest declines in 604 SFD sales/price = most popular areas to park foreign capital. Coincidence?

80% of new condo sales, even in Richmond, are to locals. – Garth

#51 Fuzzy Camel on 01.04.18 at 7:39 pm

The feminist politicians and their socialist policies have resulted in sky rocketing costs of living. Housing prices are through the roof, electrical rates sky high, medical costs, the province is broke.

Instead of some badly needed fiscal responsibility, the feminist politicians pass the buck to business owners and force them to take the inflation/inefficiency hit.

Instead of a doing the right thing and tackling inefficiencies and skyrocketing costs of living, the feminist government just bully/force business owners into paying their employees a lot more, which will result in increased income taxes. This allows the feminist regime to keep spending wastefully and delays badly needed financial discipline.

Now this is very shortsighted, because businesses now have three VERY strong reasons to pack up and move south to Trump-land. Labour costs, Energy costs, Taxes.

This won’t be the end of the world, but it is going to reduce the number of entry level jobs. Why would anyone pay a McDonalds cashier $15/hour when the job could be automated and the ROI would be mere months.

My company has already squashed hiring for this year. It is far better to tackle our inefficiencies and automate all that can be.

Without housing our economy would be in trouble. Big trouble. I’m not sure this construction boom will continue with rising rates. It’s a huge segment of our economy. They claim 12 of the economy. Well let me tell you this, construction is one of the last non-government places a person can go and make $30+/hour. Almost no non-government jobs pay that anymore.

So that 12% is high wages, sweet precious middle class gravy. Take that away, Trudeau will lose all his hair and the economy will tank. The feminist regimes spend spend spend policies will turn to austerity. Trudeau might even shed another forced tear.

#52 The real Kip on 01.04.18 at 7:39 pm

It’s minus 30 and you may be miserable but I’m happy! Both sleds are fueled up and ready to hit Lake Simcoe (ice fishing capital of North America) this weekend. Let er freeze!

#53 David McDonald on 01.04.18 at 7:40 pm

The real estate collapse you have long forecast is upon us. Like most epic events in Canada it occurs in slow motion, inexorably; like winter.

#54 Vanecdotal on 01.04.18 at 7:47 pm

SFD prices in Surrey, Fraser Valley, within reach of levered up worker bees still rising (for now). Seems likely the 604 “luxury” sfd market may see the steepest declines in the event of a correction.

Who’s your high roller buyer minus foreign $?

#55 Smoking Man on 01.04.18 at 7:50 pm

Ha ha

21 C or 70 degree in Corona Del Mar right now.
Happy housing crash everyone.

#56 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 7:53 pm

I survived the walk outside Garth. Sorry to disappoint. Still can’t feel my face.

Warren Buffett on the US economy: ‘The tsunami of wealth didn’t trickle down. It surged upward’
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/04/warren-buffett-on-the-failure-of-trickle-down-economics.html

Can’t wait till conservatives start calling Warren Buffett a socialist lol.

#57 Rick on 01.04.18 at 8:01 pm

“Kathleen Wynne is absolutely right. Nice to see politicians fighting for workers.”
Wynn, is fighting for VOTES. The Libs are quite happy to fiddle as Rome burns. As long as they are in charge, they don’t care.

#58 The Wet One on 01.04.18 at 8:01 pm

I note that Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary do not comprise the entirety of the real estate market in Canada.

Any thoughts on any other regions in the country or should I just stop reading if I don’t live in Toronto or Vancouver?

Do tell.

What outport? – Garth

#59 TRUMP on 01.04.18 at 8:03 pm

Hey… I accept the blame for your -30 cause I solved global warming… It was a huuuge problem but now everything’s gonna be greaaat.

#60 Chico on 01.04.18 at 8:04 pm

I checked…it only “feels like” -30 in the big smoke. :)

#61 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 8:05 pm

One day you conservatives will learn.-

Comcast fired 500 despite claiming tax cut would create thousands of jobs
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/01/comcast-fired-500-despite-claiming-tax-cut-would-create-thousands-of-jobs/

#62 jhon m on 01.04.18 at 8:09 pm

7 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 6:24 pm
“Minimum wage is not meant to be a living wage”

What a great line when you’ve screwed up the economy so badly that millions of adults are now working minimum wage jobs. And entire industries are so dependent on a poverty level minimum wage, that apparently raising it brings economic apocalypse…………………you are absolutely right…the culture of entitlement is disgusting!……i wonder how these self proclaimed “special people” sleep at night? Most really are not in the wealthy elite….self made people who worked up from the bottom really do not have this attitude thank God..so don’t give up hope the future is promising and people like yourself will find succ..don’t take a backseat to anyone!

#63 YYZer on 01.04.18 at 8:12 pm

Yesterday’s Globe and Mail’s editorial was also about minimum wage. I quote some paras that relate to yesterday’s blog:

“Even in the case where employers throttle back on hiring and hours, there is every expectation of a net gain in employment by the end of next year.

Similarly, the research note’s forecast of a 0.1-per-cent decrease in GDP and 0.1-per-cent rise in inflation caused by higher minimum wages does not foretell economic doom.

There’s even a chance none of the bad stuff will happen. Recent studies have challenged assumptions that wage hikes lead to lost work or diminished purchasing power. The Bank of Canada made it clear that its report was the opinion of its authors, and did not reflect its own view.”

The entire article is available here: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/globe-editorial-minimum-wages-can-make-for-maximum-consternation/article37489312/

#64 T on 01.04.18 at 8:13 pm

#7 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 6:24 pm
“Minimum wage is not meant to be a living wage”

What a great line when you’ve screwed up the economy so badly that millions of adults are now working minimum wage jobs. And entire industries are so dependent on a poverty level minimum wage, that apparently raising it brings economic apocalypse.

Minimum wage was always meant to be a living wage.

———

Argue whatever minimum wage means to you – try looking at the bigger picture.

The real problem lies in the source of jobs in the economy. Focusing on attracting high paying industries is the only solution to low average wages.

#65 People are strange on 01.04.18 at 8:13 pm

From #50
80% of new condo sales, even in Richmond, are to locals. – Garth
So the number is 20%? It seems to be growing!

#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.04.18 at 8:13 pm

Once all the jobs are automated:
Who will drink the coffee?
The robots?

#67 T on 01.04.18 at 8:17 pm

#61 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 8:05 pm
One day you conservatives will learn.-

Comcast fired 500 despite claiming tax cut would create thousands of jobs
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/01/comcast-fired-500-despite-claiming-tax-cut-would-create-thousands-of-jobs/

———

“ Comcast reportedly fired about 500 salespeople “ …

This is a non-event as it relates to tax cuts.

#68 BoomerKid on 01.04.18 at 8:19 pm

If Wynne actually cared about the working poor, she would cut income tax to the poorest tax brackets and cut spending on Pan Am executives and handouts for her hydro friends. That would be money that would go straight to the pockets of the working poor and has no effect on the viability of small businesses.

The minimum wage hike is just another tax grab. Increased wages means increased taxes for those that still have jobs, but most of that money comes at the expense of reduced hours/lost jobs for many low income workers, loss of tax deductible benefits for the same low income workers, and reduced competitiveness/viability of businesses.

#69 For those about to flop... on 01.04.18 at 8:20 pm

Pink Snow falling in Maple Ridge.

This relatively new house flip doesn’t seem to be going to plan.

Picked up for 1.18 in May 2017 ,at this price that will take a decent hit considering most people seem to think that Maple Ridge is still on the up.

This one is newer and more expensive than most,also if you look at the zolo photo,they are wedged in like sardines.

At least you can high five your neighbour after you both survive the commute…

M43AZ

13662 Mckercher Drive, Maple Ridge

Dec 11:$1,225,000
Jan 3: $1,199,900
Change: – 25100.00 -2%

https://www.zolo.ca/maple-ridge-real-estate/13662-mckercher-drive

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDBIVEhOOA==

#70 Vanecdotal on 01.04.18 at 8:21 pm

“80% of new condo sales, even in Richmond, are to locals. – Garth”

Which begs the question, from CMHC’s perspective, local people spending foreign $, or locals with locally earned and taxed $? That’s not quantified yet. Statscan says their first data tranche on foreign buyers is “just the tip of the iceberg”, with more data forthcoming. They are specifically analyzing opaque beneficial ownership structures, relatives as proxies for foreign earned $. This may prove quite revealing.

I respectfully counter, if the NDP drop the hammer and bring in an increased FBT / new speculation tax, if foreign $ isn’t fueling this market detached from local income fundamentals, we’ll see when the tide goes out who the *big weenies* are. If foreign capital is not moving our local market significantly then the single malt’s on me.

Sentiment moves it. If people think the market is declining, they retreat. How is that not obvious, even to you? – Garth

#71 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 8:22 pm

#62 T on 01.04.18 at 8:17 pm

So you’re admitting that corporations already making billions in profits didn’t need tax cuts.

AT&T sued over layoffs—after promising more investment because of tax cut
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/01/att-sued-over-layoffs-after-promising-more-investment-because-of-tax-cut/

#72 Royal City Dweller on 01.04.18 at 8:25 pm

Screwed Cdn Mil

Are you still still sitting in Tim Hortons?
Or switched to Starbucks?
You know this would be a very patriotic thing to do.

#73 Pepito on 01.04.18 at 8:26 pm

So Garth, with close to 400 comments yesterday, did any of the posters make you reconsider your stance against a $15/hr minimum wage or were they all just like arguing with broccoli?

I downgraded to romaine. – Garth

#74 KLNR on 01.04.18 at 8:26 pm

is this it? after nearly 20yrs of price gains?
SUre looks like it.
doesn’t matter to me though.

#75 Win not lose on 01.04.18 at 8:26 pm

Abbotsford tax assessment for a small SFH on a city lot
2018 $523,600 +39%
2017 $370,000 +40%
2016 $270,000 – 4%
2015 $282,000

194% increase in 2 years from 2016-2018

The horror! When will it stop?

#76 Entrepreneur on 01.04.18 at 8:30 pm

On the early news today said that house prices are going up. I guess this is the breaking point, can hear and feel it, ouch.

Consumers with money help a business stay in business #278 Sunshine (and/but we have credit, another topic). #330 Blacksheep displayed a video of Sir James Goldsmith speaking of free trade deals with Charlie Rose. SCM, listen to it too and be very careful who you vote for as T2 is big on free trade (Conservatives too).

Also, we live in a computer age where statistics should be available with a press of a finger(s). We should have all information so the public can make the correct decision. No excuses and no loopholes!

Name calling/blaming is anger not a solution. Take the name out and move on from there. Practice on paper.

#77 Hoopla on 01.04.18 at 8:30 pm

Money flowing back into financial assets because interest rates are rising? I’ll assume this is a typo and give this blog the benefit of the doubt.

Rates rise when economies expand. With growth comes enhanced corporate revenue. Thus equity markets rise, as is obviously the case. Shall I repeat that in crayon? – Garth

#78 Mike on 01.04.18 at 8:30 pm

Burlington…

http://rahb.ca/press/2018/jan/Residential-Market-Burl.png

#79 T on 01.04.18 at 8:34 pm

#68 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 8:22 pm
#62 T on 01.04.18 at 8:17 pm

So you’re admitting that corporations already making billions in profits didn’t need tax cuts.

AT&T sued over layoffs—after promising more investment because of tax cut
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/01/att-sued-over-layoffs-after-promising-more-investment-because-of-tax-cut/

—————

What I am saying is you do not have any insight into the reasons as to why 500 salespeople were let go. You jump to conclusions based on incomplete data.

#80 Hoopla on 01.04.18 at 8:36 pm

I agree that foreigners are not buying up all the properties.

Median homes prices are rising because median incomes are rising and therefore the banks are able to lend people more money.

Everyone in Ontario has seen their incomes double in the past 5 years and this is why their homes have doubled in value in the past 5 years.

Prices rose as the cost of money fell and the appetite for debt grew. We did this. – Garth

#81 C7.R on 01.04.18 at 8:38 pm

SCM,
So which demographic makes up the biggest proportion of first time buyers in the GTA? Who is forcing them to pay these prices? Right, no one. Every individual makes a conscience decision what amount to borrow and what price to offer. There is simply no one to blame but your self if you made an unwise purchase. Decisions are hard… decided Not to take the max pre approval. Decided Not to buy more house than one income could carry. Decided Not to buy new everything. Decided To invest in experiences and balanced portfolios for 5 years then decided to declared war on the mortgage for the next 5 years. Now mortgage free in GTA, no outside help or gift, one 5 figure income supporting a family of 4 plus dog, and I cheerfully take grandpas hand me downs all day long… Sweater vest or drill press you name it. It was hard, that’s life, but life is good when you can find contentment in any situation. If you can’t easily change your situation you can change your perspective.

#82 Hoopla on 01.04.18 at 8:42 pm

Sorry for not explaining myself better. The lion share of the stock market growth over the last 8 years has occurred under ultra low interest rates. Sure the market is hitting new highs after a few rates increase in 2017, but this is just momentum. A large ship does not turn so quickly…

Save the crayons for your artwork

What does ‘just momentum’ mean? Corporate profits are robust and the US tax cuts will gas them more. America has technical full employment. Rates have increased 4 times in 12 months with 3 more coming this year. Global growth was 0% five years ago and will be 4% this year. Of course markets have risen, and are not finished yet. Corrections are inevitable, but likely short. The ‘momentum’ is the rational investor reaction to a changing world. – Garth

#83 Newcomer on 01.04.18 at 8:47 pm

#54 Vanecdotal on 01.04.18 at 7:47 pm
SFD prices in Surrey, Fraser Valley, within reach of levered up worker bees still rising (for now). Seems likely the 604 “luxury” sfd market may see the steepest declines in the event of a correction.
———

In basically every bust there has ever been, the suburbs are the hardest hit. The toniest areas decline by the smallest percentage. The less spare cash would-be buyers have, the more important fundamentals are in a crash. At the bottom, in places like Langly, house prices will be determined by their value as shelter. In Kits, deeper pockets and longer visions will be in play. Which is not to say that Kits won’t be crushed, just that Surrey and Fraser Valley will be even harder hit. That’s where you will be seeing foreclosures and boarded up half-finished housing developments.

#84 Leslie on 01.04.18 at 9:00 pm

They are doing the minimum wage raise because there is probably a slow down in money flow and inflation … They think this will help lol

#85 IHCTD9 on 01.04.18 at 9:05 pm

#11 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 6:25 pm

This will propel her to victory

——————

That would be excellent for two reasons:

1. Another Wynne majority will hasten the inevitable insolvency of Ontario, which will then hopefully produce a change in voter sentiment, and the rise of Politicians actually worth voting for.

2. Another Wynne majority indicates fear among the Citizenry. The more fear the better, as this ensures that only meathead Politicians like Wynne who will drive Ontario’s financial potential into the ground can be elected. Thus, the destruction of our economic future is assured.

In reality, we have no option other than this road. Brown is a spend and tax Grit/Dip posing as a Con. No matter who we get, it will result in more taxes, and more spending.

I’m sure glad it will be others paying said new taxes instead of me.

#86 InvestorsFriend on 01.04.18 at 9:06 pm

When Warren Buffett Writes, Smart People Read

#56 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 7:53 pm posted a link to some writings about and by Warren Buffett.

Warren Buffett on the US economy: ‘The tsunami of wealth didn’t trickle down. It surged upward’
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/04/warren-buffett-on-the-failure-of-trickle-down-economics.html

Can’t wait till conservatives start calling Warren Buffett a socialist lol.
********************************************
Thanking you SCM for that link.

Warren Buffett is not only one of the very greatest investors in history but also one of the greatest CEOs, one of the best economic thinkers and a truly fantastic writer.

Anything he writes is must-read material and also provides a lesson in how to write. He always uses imagery and has the ability to say a ton in a few words.

He gets accused of “talking his book” when the exact opposite is often the case. He is against the corporate tax cuts and favors higher taxes on the rich.

#87 Dobermanduke on 01.04.18 at 9:10 pm

400 comments and counting from last night. Is it just me or did it seem like SCM was behind 300 of them.

Garth, any idea what the record is for 1 night and what pissed everyone off on that night?

#88 Long-Time Lurker on 01.04.18 at 9:10 pm

#187 bring_it_on on 01.03.18 at 10:32 pm

First of all, my first job for a four-year period was at Stanford in the late 1980s. The Hoover institute is the prime example of a right-wing think tank. How about for balance we discuss and debate Noam Chomsky’s (MIT) documentary, “Requiem for the American Dream”

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3270538/

Secondly, how does Australia and New Zealand function so well with a decent minimum-wage (no resemblance to Greece or Spain that I can see). Their economies are doing just fine thank you. Perhaps we in Canada can join them.

>As you read in my post, I referred to Dr. Sowell’s work because I don’t have the time to research any of these matters in depth. If you wish to engage in debate then I’m happy to if you keep things brief. By brief, I mean one argument per day and one paragraph per argument. I have a life outside of The Greater Fool comments section. If your argument is one paragraph, I’ll read it. If it’s over that I won’t. You can summarize the arguments from your above two paragraphs.

By the way, Australia and New Zealand aren’t doing so well:

#270 Ronaldo on 01.04.18 at 9:38 am
Australia and New Zealand houses begin to crash and New Zealand hates foreigners too and doubles the tax. Interesting year ahead.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/real-estate/housing-begins-to-crash-australia-new-zealand-london/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/australia-hates-foreigners-now-their-property-taxes-are-doubled-if-ytou-are-not-australian/

#89 Lorne on 01.04.18 at 9:12 pm

“and fake news like foreigners buying all the houses, it’s greater fool time.”
……
Nobody that I know has suggested that foreigners are buying ALL the houses…..but rather that their purchases have spurred the price increases as whatever % this number is, does not really care too much about the price…they just want their $ sitting in Canada.

…………..
Misguided people believing foreigners are responsible for high prices also believe the Chinese Dudes tax will tank the market. So they stop buying. Market falls. Human nature. – Garth

And this is a bad thing??? I think many people will welcome this!

#90 mathman on 01.04.18 at 9:19 pm

The real poop will hit the fan with the combination punch of rising rates and B20. Think about all the peripheral jobs associated with the RE industry. The greater GTA has simply become a great big house of cards driven by RE.

Houses have been going up in value and believe you me the average joe and jane have sucked up every dollar of equity and plied it into real smart investments like luxury cars, pools and Canada Goose jackets for their pets.

the masses are blissfully unaware of the impact of rising cost of capital. If people are just scraping by today, look out. We will follow the fed, so it’s going to get nasty.

Stay liquid – GTA homes will be on sale shortly.

Math

#91 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 9:26 pm

America has technical full employment. – Garth

————

Why doesn’t Canada, Garth?

Hmmmm really makes me think.

#92 Vanecdotal on 01.04.18 at 9:26 pm

Re: #82 Newcomer

I agree with your assessment, this is what history teaches us. I do wonder about the overall level of speculation at play currently here (regardless of source of capital), and how it may play out as foreign capital controls and lending tighten at the same time. This is the ultimate wildcard as to how this all unwinds imho. I. e. housing as shelter vs. housing purely for speculation.

#93 Ronaldo on 01.04.18 at 9:27 pm

#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.04.18 at 8:13 pm

Once all the jobs are automated:
Who will drink the coffee?
The robots?
————————————————-
That makes no sense.

#94 acdel on 01.04.18 at 9:29 pm

In Calgary! ???

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/what-is-your-home-worth-calgary-residential-property-values-jump-two-per-cent

#95 PastThePeak on 01.04.18 at 9:36 pm

So much misinformation on the min wage issue yesterday.

1. SCM is a moron who believes simultaneously that all min wage jobs are held by millions of TFW workers, while further millions of Canadians also work for min wage. When the figure Garth used for min wage is 8% on a workforce of approximately 19m. Guess math (or thinking) is not his/her/it/they strong suit.

2. The issue in Ontario is the 21% increase in the min wage in one year. That is a huge jump in costs in a short period of time. And again for the morons commenting, don’t conflate BC where there was a long min wage freeze with Ontario where that was not the case. Dishonesty at its finest that was.

3. The big unknown with Ontario’s experiment here, that I didn’t see anyone mention, is that it is province wide. There is a big difference in cost of living, and incomes to support higher prices, between the core GTA and the smaller cities and rural communities (about a third to half of Ontario’s population). None of the studies mentioned have precedent for such a wide and disparate region.

We shall see what happens. I think over a few years the BoC estimates will prove conservative.

#96 Russ on 01.04.18 at 9:37 pm

Warm and balmy on the west coast, at Canada’s Big Island.

Yesterday was even Sunny Ways my friends.

90 miles to the east is the village of Hope.
Everything east of that is beyond Hope, in my view.

Cheers, R

#97 Freebird on 01.04.18 at 9:46 pm

Garth the IG post of the church reminded me of why we donate yearly to local charities in lieu of a staff party and we’re supported in this. I hope they find shelter tonight.

I’ve had that moment. We also found out a friend from school who seemed to be doing well but lost track of is in a rooming house in Toronto. A too real by the grace of God reminder. Changes your priorities. Especially financial.

Happy New Year all

#98 45north on 01.04.18 at 9:50 pm

Capt. Serious: As an aside, this housing crunch is shaping up to be the thing that will crush any government up for re-election in 2019.

The next Ontario election is June 7, 2018. In preparation, Kathleen Wynne and her Liberals have forced a 29% increase in labour costs onto business. This increase is extreme – it’s government attacking the social fabric. She needs to shift attention away from the housing crunch and onto some theory of social justice because the housing crunch isn’t going to be a matter of debate – people know what their mortgage is, they’re going to be looking at increased mortgage payments and decreased house values. Also, they’re going to know if they have a job or don’t. On the other hand, theories of social justice can be debated endlessly – enlisting notions of virtue and equality.

It’s not how well off we’ll be with increased labour costs but how well off we are after 15 years of Liberal Government.

#99 akashic record on 01.04.18 at 9:57 pm

Prices rose as the cost of money fell and the appetite for debt grew. We did this. – Garth

I didn’t do the cost of money to fall for sure.
Did you?
Who was it then?

#100 bdwy sktn on 01.04.18 at 10:22 pm

East van assessment sfh comm Dr area.
Down 2.2 % y/y.

Only west side dropping more than a sliver so far.

Oh well. “No problema ” as they say here on the playa in smalltown jalisco mx (29c every day for past 3 weeks)
Cost of living here 25 to 35% of vancouver. In flip flops.
No taxes. Free-form driving. All you need is a sign and you are a small business. No bylaws. No leashes , all hounds roam free.
And you know what? No problems.
98% less b itching and griping
Everyone smiles and says hi and seems way more relaxed and happy

Wish we could stay another 3 weeks but it is not to be.

#101 Spock on 01.04.18 at 10:26 pm

It is amazing to read the comments on CBC and find that majority want the businesses to make no money but support a lot of employees and it is really scary that these clowns are agreeing wholeheartedly with Wynn.

#102 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 10:28 pm

#94 PastThePeak on 01.04.18 at 9:36 pm
1. SCM is a moron who believes simultaneously that all min wage jobs are held by millions of TFW workers, while further millions of Canadians also work for min wage. When the figure Garth used for min wage is 8% on a workforce of approximately 19m. Guess math (or thinking) is not his/her/it/they strong suit.

————————–

I always love it when you people embarrass yourselves. Here you are calling me a moron and talking about math when you’ve made such a gaping error in your pathetic analysis and you’re too simple minded to even realize it.

“Garth used for min wage is 8% on a workforce”

About 10% of the Ontario workforce was on the minimum wage of $11.60, that is true. Where your brain and lack of critical thinking failed you is that a whopping 30% of the Ontario workforce make UNDER $15/hour. THIRTY PERCENT.

You didn’t know that when the minimum wage goes up, it doesn’t just raise wages for the people making exactly the minimum wage? There are other people in between. Well you’re welcome for explaining these rather simple things to you.

A lot of employers pay 5 or 10 cents above the minimum wage, in fact that’s how a lot of them get TFWs as well.

>About 10 per cent of Ontario workers are currently making minimum wage, but about 30 per cent are making less than $15 an hour – the majority of them women

http://www.macleans.ca/news/ontario-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-15-per-hour/

Smarten up before you go off on a rant calling me a moron.

Servers make less but collect tips. Often a far better gig. – Garth

#103 Porsche on 01.04.18 at 10:28 pm

I’m on a contract looking at telephone poles and drops to the back of peoples houses, etc… FTTH

Well there is some nice homes in the inner city where they’ve just bull dozed the old house(s) and built a McMansion and they are beautiful and so are all the others in the neighborhood.

But there is a lot of junk in the inner cities. Why would people buy these rundown pieces of shit is beyond me let alone live in them.

#104 acdel on 01.04.18 at 10:34 pm

What does ‘just momentum’ mean? Corporate profits are robust and the US tax cuts will gas them more. America has technical full employment. Rates have increased 4 times in 12 months with 3 more coming this year. Global growth was 0% five years ago and will be 4% this year. Of course markets have risen, and are not finished yet. Corrections are inevitable, but likely short. The ‘momentum’ is the rational investor reaction to a changing world. – Garth

——————————————–

Hmm, interesting, all this under Trump, Dow over 25k, Corps giving bonuses to staff due to Corp tax cuts, as you said many times, the U.S. is practically at full employment and yet you were/are such a Hillary supporter/fan. I never understood that?? Especially her with the background that she has!

I never could stand either of them, was not a big fan of Trump but I will give credit where credit is due; he is sticking to his campaign promises and the markets like it for now..

Clinton was never endorsed here, and Trump is still atimebomb. Worst presidential election choices ever. – Garth

#105 Gravy Train on 01.04.18 at 10:49 pm

Did I forget anything? Oh yeah, it’s minus thirty and we’re all miserable. Blame Trump. — Garth

It’s ten above here in Halifax, Garth; mind you, the power’s out. :)

#106 Bigiot on 01.04.18 at 10:50 pm

27 F here in Mazatlan time to head home and get another helping of free Canadian. I am not sure which I like more. That healthcar is free or SCM pays for it.

#107 acdel on 01.04.18 at 11:02 pm

Clinton was never endorsed here, and Trump is still atimebomb. Worst presidential election choices ever. – Garth

—————————————————–

Well, I’ll let the long time dog’s determine from your previous blogs prior to the election whether you were in favor of Hillary being elected or not. Wow, personally the U.S. dodged a bullet by not electing her.

So far, I have to say the markets love the guy, cannot deny full employment and the Dow going up,up,up!

I am on my tenth bag of popcorn, this is incredible!

The markets like growth and profits, despite Trump. – Garth

#108 IHCTD9 on 01.04.18 at 11:03 pm

#97 45north on 01.04.18 at 9:50 pm

It’s not how well off we’ll be with increased labour costs but how well off we are after 15 years of Liberal Government.
————————

I don’t disagree, but I’ll back that logic up one more step.

How did these Liberal baloonheads get in a position to run this Province for 15 years? Well, Ontarians voted them in, that’s why.

Many here have watched this train wreck government make horrifying decisions over and over and over. They’ve single handedly destroyed the competitiveness of our entire hydro system, and are currently accumulating debt just to “lower” our sky-high bills. Yet, they get voted in again and again – with a majority even this time around.

Root problem? Ontarians are just plain dumb.
Is this going to change? IMHO, not until we hit rock bottom. Somewhere along the line, we suffered severe brain damage, and we’re no longer collectively smart enough to reverse the process without external help.

Wynne could run on spending 100 Billion we don’t have, raising taxes 100%, reducing the 401 to one lane, and I still would not rule out her being voted in if the Conservative candidate running against her was a bit of a mean guy.

Voters are the problem IMHO.

#109 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 11:08 pm

#105 Gravy Train on 01.04.18 at 10:49 pm

Aren’t you about to get walloped by a record storm bomb in Halifax?

#110 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 01.04.18 at 11:09 pm

Clinton was never endorsed here, and Trump is still atimebomb. Worst presidential election choices ever. – Garth
……………………….

American voters had to choose between the lesser of 2 evils, Clinton and the Dems or Trump. Either way the voters lose. Instead of attacking and dumping on each other both the GOP and the Dems should spend the next 3 years developing a platform and a leader that the voters can relate to and be proud of.

#111 IHCTD9 on 01.04.18 at 11:14 pm

#102 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 10:28 pm

You didn’t know that when the minimum wage goes up, it doesn’t just raise wages for the people making exactly the minimum wage? There are other people in between. Well you’re welcome for explaining these rather simple things to you.

A lot of employers pay 5 or 10 cents above the minimum wage, in fact that’s how a lot of them get TFWs as well.
———-

I started working at 3.00/hr, now I make tons more.

Minimum wage increases had jack squat to do with it.

I know exactly zero folks who credit minimum wage increases for their current prosperity.

I repeat, no one goes anywhere thanks to minimum wage increases.

Good grief Woman, give your head a shake.

#112 jane24 on 01.04.18 at 11:16 pm

Two questions fellow doggies:

1. Is the general media covering this actual reduction in average prices at all? When prices go up they are all over it to support their advertisers so suspect that when facts go the other way they will ignore.

2. Is there any evidence so far that banks are lowering valuations to reflect increased risk? People can only overpay for a house if the bank is willing to fund the higher price after all. If yes, are the media covering this aspect at all?

Would love to read any evidence of either. In the 1980s crash the media ignored it as long as they could to support their advertising sales. Media are in an even more difficult financial position today.

#113 conan on 01.04.18 at 11:28 pm

RE #295 Kelsey on 01.04.18 at 11:20 am

“What next? When most of these jobs are replaced my automated kiosks, are we going to mandate that Tim Hortons hire a minimum number of employees at each location?”

I think we are going to start taxing technology and providing a minimum income to people .

These taxes are going to be less/equal/more to what the gov would have received had the robotic/technological production been done by humans.

Business will still buy the robots cause robots don’t blank.

#114 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 11:30 pm

#111 IHCTD9 on 01.04.18 at 11:14 pm
I started working at 3.00/hr, now I make tons more.

————————-

Compare that $3/hour wage to how much a cup of coffee at Tims, or a litre of gas, or an average 1 bedroom rent was back in your day when dinosaurs roamed the Earth. Let’s say coffee was 15 cents or litre of gas was 25 cents or rental was $150/month. Whatever it was. Now take that ratio and compare it to today and you will see that wages should in fact be even higher.

You boomers always lose the argument on this metric.

Don’t even get me started on tuition and “back in my day, I worked the summer to pay for my education”

#115 Brian on 01.04.18 at 11:30 pm

Don’t forget condos and townhomes only went up in BC because of Clarke’s free money. Up to 750k, first time buyers could get up to 37k to go toward their downpayment. That translates to almost 185k more buying power. And of course, there is the trickle up effect. But it gets harder to trickle up so detached have gone off a cliff.

#116 Al on 01.04.18 at 11:42 pm

“-2 in Daytona Beach tonight. Going up to +11 tomorrow.”

Ya Florida is a poor place for warm weather in January and February. That’s why the depends crowd love it.. not too hot in the winter. About the earlier comment on current Vancouver weather, 5c, and usually grey wet and cold. Only in Canada do we brag about such miserable climate.

#117 Smoking Man on 01.04.18 at 11:57 pm

Living the dream in SOCAL and getting a kick out of everyone back home fighting it out on min wage issue.

People ultimately start a business with expectation of getting rich. 90% fail but they tried. Not every brain Fart leads to riches but if you keep trying you will hit it one day.

All the vertue signaling commies on here if they had plan to become self employed and rich would ditch there Castro tee shirts in a heart beat. But their stupid, ignorant or scared little puppies so they attack the big dogs with big balls.

So human nature.
I’m making SMGA

Huge cut down on smokes and booze for me. Our rehab center opens next week. If you have a loved one hooked on oxy their going to die soon. Email me and I’ll put you in touch with my kid. A former addict himself who has saved hundreds of lives. Including mine.
Oh and we pay well above min wage.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.

#118 PastThePeak on 01.05.18 at 12:03 am

SCM

You are a moron. And a loser. And you embarrass yourself with every post. Period.

#119 down_boy on 01.05.18 at 12:03 am

#112 jane24 on 01.04.18 at 11:16 pm
Two questions fellow doggies:

1. Is the general media…

….

Don’t confuse ‘media’ with ‘journalism’. They have different objectives even though they share a medium.

#120 Tony on 01.05.18 at 12:11 am

Re: #16 Ian on 01.04.18 at 6:34 pm

Good luck, home prices seem to be falling in Barrie. One of the few places where there is still housing inventory. Only time will tell if prices start to fall in other regions. Places like Sarnia and Belleville have next to no inventory for sale. Of course prices have to fall in Niagara Falls and St. Catharines.

#121 Tower on 01.05.18 at 12:12 am

What outport? – Garth

——————————————————-

Shout out to Edmonton would be cool. Closest we ever get is Calgary being mentioned

#122 Mike on 01.05.18 at 12:54 am

is there a reason my comments are being deleted or? perhaps im missing something?

No delete. You’re not that famous. – Garth

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.18 at 12:54 am

@#11 SCM
“This will propel her to victory.”
+++++

Apparently you have been spending too much time fixating on the Joyce Family to pay attention to other news……

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/it-is-not-really-about-popularity-wynne-says-of-poll-numbers-1.3728509&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjpmNmOkcDYAhUT9WMKHajqBBoQFggvMAY&usg=AOvVaw1YozkQQiLoeNWy1MR0lsfD

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.18 at 12:57 am

@#14 Happiness is never saying your Surrey
“Cherry picking Mr Turner ? Slurrey and the Fraser Valley are up 15-20% from last year….”
+++++

Housing sales in Sorrey and the Fraser Valley are “Up” because first time buyers were priced out of the Vancouver, Burnaby market.
Greaterfools are still greaterfools no matter where they buy……..

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.18 at 1:05 am

@#90 SCM
“Why doesn’t Canada, Garth?”
++++++

Because your Mom hasnt booted you out of the basement yet and forced you to get a job….at minimum wage?

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.18 at 1:07 am

@#SCM
“Aren’t you about to get walloped by a record storm bomb in Halifax?”

+++++

Haligonians laugh in the face of a puny winter storm….

The Halifax Explosion
White Juan

Those were the days……..

#127 Workit on 01.05.18 at 1:13 am

Metro store (unionized) part time worker here in Ontario.

Before recent minimum wage :

To get from $11.00 to $14.00 would take you about 4-5 years of employment. Everyone starts at minimum wage ,then gets union raises based on hours worked . I.e work 5000 hours get $0.25 raise and so one.

After Jan 01 :

Employee starting now ( 0 skills ) or employee with 5 years of experience ( skill level high ) make same money.
As well as those in between.
Every one that already making $14.00 doesn’t get a raise.

The company budgets the hours for each department. Since the cost of wages went up 20-30 % they slash hours allocated to compensate for the increase. Since it is a union environment the cuts happen from the bottom up. So employees with least seniority gets affected the most. So from 20 hours a week they get down to 4 hours.
My department had one employee laid off and two others quit ,since wasn’t worth for them to come in for 4 hours a week.
Someone tell me how this increase of minimum wage has improved the lives of people who make minimum wage?
How has this increased number jobs available? Just witnessed the opposite. 3 people have no employment.
Also my store is not automated in any way,so they are not replaced by robots.

Thing is this ,the stores operate on slim margins . The highest expense for them are labour costs. So any increase in those has negative impact on bottom line.
People will say BS , everything is so expensive they company can afford it. No ! ,grocery stores sell perishable items. Average margin on a product is 30-40% ,that is if you sell it to a customer. Otherwise it expires and has to be thrown out.. In this case you margin is 100 % negative. If you don’t believe just drive behind any store and you will see green recycling bins full of produce,meat,bakery or grocery items.

#128 Yorkville Renter on 01.05.18 at 1:20 am

SCM – I genuinely feel bad that you think and feel how you do. Canada has a wealth of opportunity, you should try to capture some.

Not everyone can be rich or successful. People need skills, experience, IQ, EQ and a strong work ethic – many do, and many more do not. If everyone could be a success then there would be no reward for doing so.

The issue isn’t the hike – it’s the speed at which it’s being applied. Why not ask your beloved Wynne why she wait to raise Min Wage until a few months before the next election, instead of gradually over the years?

#129 Dolce Vita on 01.05.18 at 1:34 am

Correct Garth. I believe it will be a RE disaster by mid-2018 in the “it’s different this time” Duchies of YVR, Slurrey, Fraser Valley and 416 + Environs.

Probably, the largest RE asset devaluation in Cdn. history since the bubble was the largest; hence, it follows it’s bursting will be as spectacular except downhill.

And…it has already started. Panic listings = running for the turnstiles to get out at any price. History DOES repeat itself, it always has.

Hubrous of the RE frenzied will not change history nor the workings of the market.
_________________________________

#14 WelcometoSlurrey

Detached avg. price of $1MM up by 1%, year over year…ahem:

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/trends

Besides, who would want to live in the Surrey, Fraser Valley hinterlands of YVR?

At those locations you may as well live in some ‘burb in a Prarie city where RE is less than half the price.

Involves some Winter gear and snow shoveling but hey, $580K in savings buys a lot of parkas and snow shovels (Slurrey Detached avg. = $1MM, Edmonton Detached avg. = $420K).

Quit and find a job in Edmonton. It will take you decades in Slurrey to make up $0.6MM in wages.

#130 Smoking Man on 01.05.18 at 1:55 am

Al Gore. Shit happens.

You good tail wagging UN opportinist mutt . What now?

Yeah global warming. The mind fkd teachers pet kids got your back. Me not so much.

Looking forward to an explanation.
Thieving liberals.

#131 Sebastien on 01.05.18 at 2:44 am

What nobody thought about raising the minimum wage to 15$-20$/hour is that we might see, like in the Third World, annually paid professionals (engineers, teachers, managers, etc…) quit their careers and take dumb min wages jobs simply because you can put your brain at off at work.

Think about it, why take a 45,000$/year teaching job if you can flip burgers for the same amount?

#132 HaHaHa on 01.05.18 at 3:35 am

DELETED

#133 Fake News Again on 01.05.18 at 3:39 am

#45 AGuyInVancouver on 01.04.18 at 7:30 pm
Misguided people believing foreigners are responsible for high prices also believe the Chinese Dudes tax will tank the market. So they stop buying. Market falls. Human nature. – Garth
_ _ _
LOL, the real reason detached is dead is that 99% of Canadians in Toronto in Vancouver can no longer afford them. Fact: the only buyers outside of the odd local millionaire are those who can spirit money out of China. The poor locals scrabble for the condo scraps.

CMHC says 95% of buyers are local. – Garth

_________

The CMHC is out east. We are from Greater Van – and CMHC is dead wrong which is typical of eastern Canadian bureaucrats who think they know what is going on out west. Ever hear of the word “proxy”? There are hundreds and hundreds of “housewives and students” buying 20 million dollar houses out here.

There are no ‘hundreds and hundreds’ of $20 million houses in all of Canada. – Garth

#134 Gravy Train on 01.05.18 at 6:09 am

#109 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 11:08 pm

“Aren’t you about to get walloped by a record storm bomb in Halifax?”

Yes, that’s why the power’s out. Try to keep up! :)

#135 Stone on 01.05.18 at 6:32 am

#90 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 9:26 pm
America has technical full employment. – Garth

————

Why doesn’t Canada, Garth?

Hmmmm really makes me think.

—————

Thinking was your first mistake. And your second. And third.

#136 maxx on 01.05.18 at 6:58 am

“Interest rates will rise at least three times in the next 12 months, both in Canada and the States. Bond yields are on the march higher and will result in more expensive mortgages, rising above 4% – or double the level of early 2016.”

Music to the ears of savers and the debt-free.

Cash will always be king – there is nothing quite as universally safe and protective. Waaay more than pressed cornflakes wrapped in plastic. A universal key. Social mobility. A total and complete shutter-upper to braggarts and bs artists, both auditory and visual.

Money talks and bs walks.

#137 Madcat on 01.05.18 at 7:14 am

Kelsey on 01.04.18 at 7:27 pm
“After re-reading Screwed Canadian Millenials posts, I finally see the light. The Government should mandate a new policy called Maximum House Price. MHP will be low enough to ensure that someone working part time and earning $15 / hour will qualify for a mortgage under B20, regardless of where the house is located. That way everyone will have a Living Wage and own their own home, wherever they want. Conservatives won’t agree with my plan, but that’s because they don’t have a heart and are too busy exploiting the Proles.”

Wow…. I am actually stunned that there are people out there who think this way… We are heading towards communism… Scary times! ‘Everybody should be entitled to live the good life’ LOL! So much for experience, talent and education…

Nobody is entitled to a house. If this market had not been flooded with credit we would not be in this housing crisis.

Fixes should be:

Everyone should have to put at least 25% down.
Amortization periods should not exceed 25 years.
There should be no CMHC.
Foreign buyers tax (if after 60 years owners have not become citizens said property may be subject to land lease from govt of Canada not to exceed 5% of property value annually)
Preventative measures should be put in place to curb speculation (eg you may not own more than two homes in Canada and your second home purchase must not be financed).
Corporate ownership should be banned unless purchasing homes for demolition and new build or multi-unit parcels.
Strict rules should be put in place for lenders as far as qualifying borrowers.
Get rid of first time home buyer program
Ban short term rentals in houses (this hurts legit business *hotels that pay tax and business fees)
Allow larger home owner Grant to homes that have rental suites

Homes should be for raising families not speculative Investments. Speculation should be strongly discouraged.

Young folks buying today may drop dead still paying off their 600 square foot shoe box… Is that the kind of affordability they were looking for… !? I think not…

#138 Trumpocalypse2018 on 01.05.18 at 7:18 am

Crowds lining up even in this cold to buy the book that will be the spark that lights the fuse for Trumpocalypse.

http://www.businessinsider.com/fire-and-fury-book-trump-sold-out-at-one-store-2018-1

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/05/politics/trump-book-image/index.html

The End has begun.

Watch what he does to try to get out of this now.

Global disaster coming.

Daniel Ellsberg says:

“We may very well be in the first … two-sided nuclear war any day: Tomorrow, or next week,” Mr. Ellsberg tells The Globe and Mail over the phone from his Berkeley, Calif., home.

Referencing The Post’s British release date, he adds: “I hope we’re not at war by Jan. 19. We very well could be. I would say it’s 50-50, at least, that we’ll be at war before that.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/books-and-media/former-military-analyst-daniel-ellsberg-warns-50-50-chance-of-nuclear-war-in-coming-weeks/article37510393/

Jan 19, maybe before.

Don’t be fools.

Prepare.

#139 Classical Liberal on 01.05.18 at 7:28 am

Don’t even get me started on tuition and “back in my day, I worked the summer to pay for my education”
– – –

Listen you prick, I’m considered a Millennial and I paid for 2 years of my education through a summer job. I took a year off after HS, worked my ass off at a job that paid more than MW because it was a tough slog; went through OSAP for the other two years, and finally paid that off just over a year ago.
Now I’m working my ass off to save for my own kids’ education while having to shell out tax dollars for the people who qualify for “free” university.
You entitled progressive marxists make me sick. Time to work some more cash jobs. Only way to get ahead these days with the SCM ilk living off the rest of us.

#140 maxx on 01.05.18 at 7:40 am

#7 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 6:24

“…..And blame mills all you want, but as always it was upper middle class speculators. Just like in the States.”

We don’t blame the mills, we mostly laugh at them.

“House flippers triggered the US housing market crash, not poor subprime borrowers
https://qz.com/1064061/house-flippers-triggered-the-us-housing-market-crash-not-poor-subprime-borrowers-a-new-study-shows/

Not much into logic, are we? “Poor subprime borrowers”, of equal free choice, often bought from flippers. The financial transaction is the agent by which the GFC mess originated and everyone had equal choice of getting involved or not in the re game. Some just played it better. Or got there sooner. That’s just the way it is – suck it up and get used to it.

Fyi, stupid-low rates caused buyers (of equal free choice) to salivate and borrow their brains out, which caused lenders to salivate, thereby lending their brains out and investment firms salivated, creating investment products with layers of prime borrowers coupled with $hitty ones (somewhat like your comments on this blog), which investors then salivated for and lapped up like demented, greedy morons. The Ponzi scheme then collapsed under the weight of negative intrinsic value, and the “poor subprime borrowers” took the brunt.

House flippers, as creepy as their brand of hormones is, were simply a link in the chain.

“SCM out.”

I call bs. Your stupid, ill-informed, ageist rants are tantamount to a verbal intestinal parasite. Endless garbage spewing from a total loser who thinks that its life circumstances are everyone else’s fault – most particularly boomers and your anti-boomer comments border on hate.

Would that you did humanity a favour and flushed yourself a few galaxies away.

#141 dharma bum on 01.05.18 at 7:42 am

“It’s a reminder of how human nature doesn’t change and, therefore, neither do markets. We are herd animals. Tribal.” – Garth
——————————————————————–

“When there is no desire, all things are at peace.”
– Lao Tzu

Humans are very materialistic and selfish. We want power and wealth. We try the easier, more convenient ways to get it; the easier way is through fear and greed. This materialism leads to evil things.

“If you overvalue your possessions people begin to steal.”

To gain true happiness and to become truly powerful and a better person, you must free yourself from these things, but human nature gets in the way. We are naturally selfish, because it gives us a false sense of power.

“I cannot tell if what the world considers ‘happiness’ is happiness or not. All I know is that when I consider the way they go about attaining it, I see them carried away headlong, grim and obsessed, in the general onrush of the human herd, unable to stop themselves or to change their direction. All the while they claim to be just on the point of attaining happiness.”

― Zhuangzi

#142 Wrk.dover on 01.05.18 at 7:58 am

Garth, you serve good Kool-aid. I also enjoy the particular Kool-aid SCM serves up backed up by well researched links, and I appreciate your allowing HIM to continue to enlighten the basket of deplorables here, with HIS youthful viewpoint. Truth makes an excellent blend.

As for the pile on of bullying HIM (SCM), it reminds me of back in the sixties when we started to grow bangs, and hair over our ears, greasy old cave farts like IHCTD9 still wearing rolled up cuffs on their pants, would ask if we were a boy or a girl. Har har har. That particular bully boy’s private school upbringing has him always thinking on the level of the Lord of the Flies plot on social issues, and we know how that story ends. His recurring wet dream!

M64NS EX ONT/1979

#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.18 at 8:14 am

@#127 Yorkville Renter

Dont fret about SCM.

Hell hath no fury like a self rightous Millenial scorned…
Eventually they grow up.

#144 Madcat on 01.05.18 at 8:15 am

This kind of speculative investment garbage ponzi scheme crap is just the kind of stuff we need to ban:

https://www.facebook.com/keyspire/posts/1363062037138732

#145 Rooster on 01.05.18 at 8:23 am

#19 Brian Woodward on 01.04.18 at 6:42 pm

Donald Trump is the new Churchill. He stands up to the bullies
*********

It is difficult to decipher your emoji-less text. Are you a dude playing a dude who has gone full dotard?

Both men inherited wealth, but only one is remembered as an accomplished politician, orator, writer, historian, and artist who received the Nobel prize. The other is a pu$$y grabber.

“Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things.” Churchill

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.18 at 8:24 am

Kathleen Wynne surfing along in the polls at 15% popularity……and some misguided fool thinks she will win in Ontario’s next Provincial election in 6 months…..and her proudest moment was implementing the $15 minimum wage…..
“delusion meets reality at the polls”

She’s toast, just like soon to be ex mayor of Vancover Gregor “Bike Lane” Robertson and the NDP Premier of Alberta………..toast with a capital “T”.

Social Justice warriors meet the real world of angry, over taxed, underemployed voters.

Hey SCM!
Why dont you run for office?
You couldnt be any more inept than our current band of cash flinging baboons could you?
Could you?

#147 I’m stupid on 01.05.18 at 8:26 am

Having lived on both sides of the tracks I think I have a good perspective regarding minimum wage. The biggest question that needs to be answered is can businesses in Ontario afford to pay $14 per hour and still stay in business?

Having grown up in a low income family, I began working at 14. I was making student minimum wage but I was able to buy the things middle class kids got provided to them. Nike running shoes instead of no name brand runners, Nintendo etc etc. At 16 my father died, tough blow as he was the primary earner. My brother dropped out of high school in grade 12 to work. I got a job as a busboy but still stayed in school. I worked 30 hours a week while in high school. At 17 I became a waiter making $500 a week working 25 hours a week in 1997. It was enough to pay my university tuition and still help my mom.

I understand increasing minimum wage will positively impact low income families, but if the number of jobs available to high school students decreases substantially the increase will hurt families. The minimum wage earning parent will need to provide more support to their 16-20 year old children instead of having them be self reliant.

Life was hard but if those shitty jobs didn’t exist welfare would have been our only option. The government should be trying to focus on legislation to provide opportunity for its citizens. My family could’ve gone on welfare but we were a hard working family struck by tragedy and keeping our dignity and having pride was important. It seems the Wynn govt is promoting legislation that would turns my childhood family into beggars.

I believe the most important thing the government can do to help low income families is provide a tax credit so their children can get a post secondary education for free. I believe having the most highly trained and skilled work force will result in a better overall society. With that said the government should research what types of skills will be needed and provide education to meet those needs.

The education system is broken, how many have teaching degrees but don’t teach? The number of teachers being turned out far exceeds the need for them. How many are getting liberal arts degrees? The majority will never work in their field of study. Meanwhile there is a shortage of trades people. There is a disconnect between market needs and available people.

I have a BA in business and society from York university. I own a small Hvac business, why did I spent nearly 30k to get the BA in a time in my life when money was really tight? While my brother who dropped out owns an Hvac business and is just as intelligent as I am. I basically paid nearly 30k to get to the same place as I would have been just 4 years later.

#148 Ace Goodheart on 01.05.18 at 8:48 am

Do you know that even with this wonderful Toronto housing price collapse, I am still making in excess of 50K per year capital gain on my one remaining rental building (located across the street from the Eglinton Crosstown LRT).

You can actually speculate in real estate, even in down markets, and your speculation can actually survive a housing correction. You just have to follow the rules of speculation: building with good mechanicals and structure, outwardly crappy looking, and in an area that is considered undesirable, but which may undergo a change making it into a very desirable location (ie, they might build a subway station across the street).

I think I’m going to clean up on this one once they open up that new subway. Only thing I’m worried about is the Liberals taxing capital gains. But by the time I sell, we’ll probably have nothing but conservative governments both Provincially and Federally anyway. Would be cool if they were cutting back cap gains taxes and goosing the TFSA contribution room right around my projected sell date……

You are making nothing until you sell. – Garth

#149 Tony on 01.05.18 at 8:53 am

I’ll be shorting the Canadian dollar about 30 seconds after the open tomorrow. Looking for an all peak around the 81.25 mark. Looking for a 66 cent dollar this year. The Canadian jobs report came in exactly where I figured it would because of the B20 OSFI rules and all the jobs sales in Canada. Poloz will never raise rates.

#150 Ace Goodheart on 01.05.18 at 8:57 am

And the way they build transit in Toronto, it is a crap shoot as to where they are going to put the subways. It is not predictable. You could have the most urgent need for a subway downtown, with massive over crowding that is similar to how public transit works in the third world, and they will decide to put a subway up in some suburban residential neighbourhood way up north somewhere, or in the middle of a field, or basically anywhere.

If you own land nearby you become instantly rich.

The decision making seems to be based more on politicians and their personal connections to a particular area, than with any consideration of actual need for the subway or the public good.

#151 IHCTD9 on 01.05.18 at 9:08 am

#114 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 11:30 pm
#111 IHCTD9 on 01.04.18 at 11:14 pm
I started working at 3.00/hr, now I make tons more.

————————-

Compare that $3/hour wage to how much a cup of coffee at Tims, or a litre of gas, or an average 1 bedroom rent was back in your day when dinosaurs roamed the Earth. Let’s say coffee was 15 cents or litre of gas was 25 cents or rental was $150/month. Whatever it was. Now take that ratio and compare it to today and you will see that wages should in fact be even higher.

You boomers always lose the argument on this metric.

Don’t even get me started on tuition and “back in my day, I worked the summer to pay for my education”
———-

Coffee was about a buck, a Big Mac was 2.10, gas was about .50/litre, bag of “Doritos” was 1-2.00 (180g bag). Rent was 600.00 for a two bedder (about 1000.00 today for the same exact place). I used OSAP to get through school, 13K for 2 years including living expenses. I moved back in with my parents to nuke the debt quick after school. I started my career job at 23 making 11.00/hr.

I’m not a boomer, but you can see the min wagers at soon to be 15.00 got it was better today than “back in the day”. Along with globalism which has pushed the costs of consumer goods through the floor, youth these days don’t know just how easy they’ve got it. Yes that all changes when they try and move up the pay ladder, or move out of the basement. Up till then, they buy $600.00 phones and drive used luxury cars with ease while serving coffee and living at home.

When I got married in the late 90’s, we bought a TV for ourselves, 27”,Tube. It weighed 101 lbs. it cost $800.00. We bought ourselves a computer too, Pentium 200 MMX, 15” tube screen, roller ball mouse, $1600.00. Interest rate on the mortgage was 6.4% and we thought that was awesome.

#152 Ace Goodheart on 01.05.18 at 9:20 am

RE: #1 TRUMP on 01.04.18 at 6:12 pm

“Hey … Dont blame me for the cold weather. But I will take credit for “Making America Great Again”. (tax cuts, illegal imigration, etc.)

By the way is your corrupt Canadian government being led by the drama school teacher “TRUDEAU” making CANADA great again??

Doesnt look good from down here.”

Americans and Canadians are very similar (actually just two countries whose immigrants/citizens all came from the same places, and who have the same indigenous civilisations which were already here when the founding immigrant groups arrived).

We are beginning to see this irrational, odd border developing between two very similar groups of people, and everyone as usual arguing politics over the border line.

What I can see up here in Canada, is that the USA is a very well put together, functional place, whose government has unfortunately been bought by groups aligned with the wealthiest people living there.

I’m not sure if Americans as a whole realise this or not, but their government is basically operating as a paid enforcement service for the wealthy, whose lobbyists write the laws (including tax laws) that it enacts.

The United States does not have government by the many for the many, anymore. There is government by the wealthy, against everyone else, paid for by the wealthy.

I guess it is inevitable in any civilisation that this will happen. Sooner or later all the money concentrates in one place, with a small group of people, and of course being a politician is incredibly expensive and doesn’t pay very well, so these people need to keep their financial backers in place if they want to keep getting re-elected.

In the United States the situation however has become extreme and may lead to some form of revolution of the masses if it is not put into check. For example, your wealthy, who have paid their lobbyists to write your latest tax code changes, have seen fit to start taxing graduate students at your universities, for their tuition credits, that they do not receive in cash and that go directly to the University, as if they were earned income.

This tax change was done to allow for tax cuts to the top 1% income earners in your country, and basically has resulted in the situation that only wealthy people, or their children, can now go on to graduate studies in your Universities.

You can see where this is going.

Any good, long lasting revolution starts in the Universities, with the academic classes and then filters down to the masses, who take it up as a cause. Just look at history and you’ll see that.

The USA needs some checks and balances on its wealthy and their ability to write the countries laws. They cannot just be allowed to write any law they like, and use the government as a rubber stamp for their own interests. This will not end well. Trump is a symptom of a disease.

#153 milleniallmoose on 01.05.18 at 9:22 am

Remember everyone, you never truly “own your home”

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/8-homes-park-may-be-trimmed-to-solve-401-bottleneck/ar-BBHTFfR?ocid=mailsignout

#154 FredfromKitchener on 01.05.18 at 9:28 am

http://www.570news.com/2018/01/05/unemployment-rate-tumbles-5-7-reach-lowest-mark-40-years/

Seems to me things aren’t quite that bad on this side of the border. Not quite a perfect storm.

#155 Victor V on 01.05.18 at 9:39 am

Canadian jobs market ‘on fire’ as unemployment falls to 41-year low

https://www.bnn.ca/canadian-jobs-market-on-fire-as-unemployment-falls-to-41-year-low-1.959888

The unemployment reading fell last month as the economy generated 78,600 net new positions, including 23,700 full-time jobs.

“The books closed on a phenomenal year for Canadian employment with another spectacular result for December,” CIBC economist Nick Exarhos wrote in a brief report.

“In our judgement, that should be enough to see the Bank of Canada hike rates later this month, with the employment figures more than enough to offset recent disappointments on GDP.”

And up go interest rates! – Garth

#156 Calgary Rip Off on 01.05.18 at 9:43 am

Trump is disliked because he does what many people want to do but wont or cant. The man is true to himself. That is admirable. As President he cannot be bought or controlled and it is unclear if he is stable with the nuclear codes. Likely he says things to get reactions from the public which is highly reactionary to anything he says, either liking him even more or hating him. If Trump truly were an enemy, he wouldn’t be hated by many as if someone is truly your enemy it is not good strategy to hate them as it clouds your judgement. It is best to not become involved emotionally in most small decisions daily.

In Calgary yet again, houses remain a rip off. Why? In many cases rentals are more expensive than getting a mortgage. Given the high incomes in the city though, this is irrelevant given the high cost of living. Advice? Unless you make much money and enjoy claustrophobia, don’t come to Calgary.

Here’s the latest on housing from the Calgary Sun:
http://calgarysun.com/news/local-news/what-is-your-home-worth-calgary-residential-property-values-jump-two-per-cent/wcm/6331e535-106a-4f58-8941-7dac27f5a767

#157 IHCTD9 on 01.05.18 at 9:44 am

#112 jane24 on 01.04.18 at 11:16 pm
Two questions fellow doggies:

1. Is the general media covering this actual reduction in average prices at all? When prices go up they are all over it to support their advertisers so suspect that when facts go the other way they will ignore.

2. Is there any evidence so far that banks are lowering valuations to reflect increased risk? People can only overpay for a house if the bank is willing to fund the higher price after all. If yes, are the media covering this aspect at all?

Would love to read any evidence of either. In the 1980s crash the media ignored it as long as they could to support their advertising sales. Media are in an even more difficult financial position today.
———-

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/weak-sales-cause-average-2017-price-of-vancouver-detached-homes-to-tumble-6-5-1.4472117

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/toronto-housing-prices-fall-amid-growing-pool-of-homes-for-sale

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/toronto-home-prices-dip-in-november-as-new-listing-surge/article37193770/

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/11/02/toronto-vancouver-house-prices-to-fall-next-year-report_a_23264632/

Looks like the Star still have their heads in the sand, but they’re going broke and obviously financed heavily by RE.

The cat’s out of the bag pretty much everywhere else.

The CBC is probably the most unbiased when it comes to RE – they get paid either way…

#158 n1tro on 01.05.18 at 10:00 am

#141 Wrk.dover on 01.05.18 at 7:58 am
Garth, you serve good Kool-aid. I also enjoy the particular Kool-aid SCM serves up backed up by well researched links, and I appreciate your allowing HIM to continue to enlighten the basket of deplorables here, with HIS youthful viewpoint. Truth makes an excellent blend.
As for the pile on of bullying HIM (SCM), it reminds me of back in the sixties when we started to grow bangs, and hair over our ears, greasy old cave farts like IHCTD9 still wearing rolled up cuffs on their pants, would ask if we were a boy or a girl. Har har har. That particular bully boy’s private school upbringing has him always thinking on the level of the Lord of the Flies plot on social issues, and we know how that story ends. His recurring wet dream!
M64NS EX ONT/1979
——————-
You two should get a room. Do you really think she gives a crap about an old boomer like yourself just because you aren’t one of the successful elites that was gifted money from the sky back in the day when gas was $0.10/L and $3hr/hr was plenty to live on? Wake up. This woman only lives in her own bubble believing only in things that confirm her outlook in life.

#159 Ian on 01.05.18 at 10:12 am

America does not have ANYTHING CLOSELY RESEMBLING full employment. We talked about this last year on here.

Firstly, the ‘main’ figure that’s reported excludes 1) people who have stopped looking, and 2) those in part time work. Guess what happened after Obamacare came in? Employers don’t want any employee to reach the 38.5 h / week threshold for providing healthcare, so they get two people to do the same job, each working 19-20h / week to get around it.

Someone on here, and I wish I could remember who as it was one of the best contributions ever on here, noted that U6 unemployment, which includes those two classes mentioned above, is way high. 8% is reported now, but is likely higher. Either way, 8% is a hell of a lot of people.

I’ll quote from this site…

http://www.macrotrends.net/1377/u6-unemployment-rate

“U3 is the official unemployment rate. U5 includes discouraged workers and all other marginally attached workers. U6 adds on those workers who are part-time purely for economic reasons. The current U6 unemployment rate as of December 2017 is 8.10 %.”

8.1%!!!! So let’s stop this ‘America is at full employment’ nonsense.

You all know why Trump won in the rust belt states. It’s because people there know the U3 employment figure is horseshit and meaningless.

#160 Brian Fox on 01.05.18 at 10:16 am

#21 There will be a LOT of Audi’s coming up for sale from early lease returns.

I was looking for a nice low mileage A8. Now might be the time

#161 ben on 01.05.18 at 10:17 am

Quotes from a couple of geniuses:

Investors Friend:

> Rentier is most decidedly not a bad word. It’s a goal!

Adam Smith

> “As soon as the land of any country has all become private property, the landlords, like all other men, love to reap where they never sowed and demand a rent even for its natural produce.”

So the goal is to reap what you have not sown. Sure thing. My aim is to have mean reap what they sow because that’s morally correct (and better for all).

Do you mean that you want to, for example, buy some land near where you know a train station will be built with taxpayer dollars, and then whilst others build up a town around you, you simply reap the rewards after doing nothing? Another similar problematic behaviour: expecting to realise huge gains on property despite simply holding the property for ten years.

An example that is not rentier behaviour: taking a property in a run-down state, spending 50K doing it up and selling it for around 50K plus time expenses. You added the value: no problem.

Another example: you buy a run-down house and spend (inefficiently) 50K doing it up and sell it for 500K more. That is not your work, the price of land went up, it will be paid for by someone doing real work via renting money from a bank.

Hope that provides some clarity.

#162 IHCTD9 on 01.05.18 at 10:22 am

#141 Wrk.dover on 01.05.18 at 7:58 am

….greasy old cave farts like IHCTD9 still wearing rolled up cuffs on their pants, would ask if we were a boy or a girl. Har har har. That particular bully boy’s private school upbringing has him always thinking on the level of the Lord of the Flies plot on social issues, and we know how that story ends. His recurring wet dream!

M64NS EX ONT/1979

—————

This greasy old cave fart could well be within 10 years of age as your kids…

As for SCM, she is definitely entertaining when off her meds. Although, she comes up well short on said “enlightenment” and “truth” though.

As far as being a bully goes, if I referred to you as male, am I a bully? Keep your mind open to the possibility that I may have some information that you don’t…

#163 ben on 01.05.18 at 10:25 am

Asymmetric moderation:

1. Boomer “employers” are the most entitled, spoiled, whiny brats on the planet.

> Stop with the ageism or you will be history. Again. – Garth

versus:

> I have several millenials working for me.
Constantly late, uninterested, constantly texting friends, pay cheque to paycheque existence while living at Mom and Dads.

and:

> When I listen to millenials, I’m glad they’re screwed
> Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside

How’s the balance coming on, Garth?

If this blog irks you, leave. – Garth

#164 Brian Fox on 01.05.18 at 10:28 am

Shall I repeat that in crayon? – Garth

You’re killing me here. Lol

#165 gfd on 01.05.18 at 10:30 am

This is what vacancies does
http://calgaryherald.com/business/local-business/varcoe-calgary-downtown-office-towers-drop-1-6b-in-value

#166 russell on 01.05.18 at 10:30 am

toronto star thursday edition business reporter gta real estate value is up 12.7% from 2016??? What is up with reporting these numbers???

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2018/01/04/toronto-2017-home-sales-down-from-2016-average-price-up.html

#167 Blackdog on 01.05.18 at 10:32 am

@Trocxi #403 Jan 4/18 re: “You know sh*t, stoopid Marxist ..
Yes, they are sitting in Florida doin nothing, which they rightly deserve!
Like it or not, entitled dummy. ”

Are you saying Ron Joyce Jr and Jerri-Lynn Horton-Joyce deserve to have been born into wealthy families?

#168 ben on 01.05.18 at 10:35 am

> Do you know that even with this wonderful Toronto housing price collapse, I am still making in excess of 50K per year capital gain on my one remaining rental building (located across the street from the Eglinton Crosstown LRT).

> You can actually speculate in real estate…

> I think I’m going to clean up on this one once they open up that new subway.

That’s a rentier right there. Doing nothing, earning 50K. Where is that 50K coming from? The surplus value of someone doing some actual work.

Land value tax would capture most of that and reduce tax on labour.

This would allow capitalists to thrive by adding real value and would allow workers to live a good life. And this guy would have to do some actual work instead of waiting for you guys to pay for the subway.

#169 Blackdog on 01.05.18 at 10:44 am

I don’t understand. Why is it OK to call people ‘morons’ and ‘stoopid’, and OK to use the word ‘feminist’ as an insult, but not OK to post anything that could remotely be construed by the blog owner as being racist?

Oh…I get it now.

Good. – Garth

#170 Ace Goodheart on 01.05.18 at 10:45 am

RE: “You are making nothing until you sell. – Garth”

Ahhh Garth and that’s where you’re wrong. As a life long business person I have one rule that i never break, and that is that my business enterprises (and actually everything that I own other than my house and my car) makes me money.

My rental building that I still own, earns $12,000 per year income, after expenses. I declare it as taxable income each year, as required.

My initial investment was a cash purchase price of $279,000 + land transfer tax. So I earn a little over 4% each year on my initial investment, in cash, payable to me in monthly instalments.

I don’t run money losing businesses.

Yes I could make 6% in the markets on the same money. I am aware of that. But I could not get a $50,000 capital gain each year on the same money.

So I take a little loss on the monthly dividend income, and play the long term for a capital gain in a ten year period on sale.

There was an initial “bet” that the Eglinton Crosstown would actually get built, during a time when our former now deceased mayor was trying to stop it. There was also a bet that they would extend it up to where my building is. Those bets ended up playing out, much as bets on companies in the markets sometimes play out and sometimes don’t. If they had not played out, I would still be making my 4% per year in rent after expenses, and I would likely just have sold the building, for a small capital gain at the peak of the market last February.

It is what it is. I don’t complain about it. The extra $12,000 per year is nice to have. And I expect to be able to put the proceeds of sale to work for me as well, when the building is sold about 3-4 years from now, and I expect they will earn me around 6% properly invested, which is also fine with me.

You bragged about the annual capital gain. I pointed out, correctly, it is illusory until crystallized. – Garth

#171 Stop Making Sense on 01.05.18 at 10:47 am

#146 I’m stupid on 01.05.18 at 8:26 am

I believe having the most highly trained and skilled work force will result in a better overall society. With that said the government should research what types of skills will be needed and provide education to meet those needs.

The education system is broken, how many have teaching degrees but don’t teach? Meanwhile there is a shortage of trades people. There is a disconnect between market needs and available people.

*********
IMHO it appears that your BA wasn’t a waste of your time. I believe the disconnect happened when elementary schools discontinued shop and home economics classes in favour of “technology centres”. Nobody complained, hoping their child wouldn’t have to get their hands dirty. And look at what happened.

If this makes any sense to anyone, call your school trustee and tell him/her that if they expect to climb any further up the greasy political pole to reinstate shop and home econ classes, even if we have to import the teachers.

“I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught.” Churchill

“I love the poorly educated.” Trump

#172 Brian Fox on 01.05.18 at 10:49 am

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/military-short-thousands-of-personnel-despite-small-increase-in-ranks-1.3745573

For those who like a challenge. Pays way better than minimum wage, and you have one of those elusive defined benefit pensions we all covet.

#173 Brian Woodward formally Brian1 on 01.05.18 at 10:56 am

Aljazeera reported yesterday that there were pro government demonstrations. They failed to mention that the internet was taken offline.

#174 IHCTD9 on 01.05.18 at 10:56 am

#157 n1tro on 01.05.18 at 10:00 am
#141 Wrk.dover on 01.05.18 at 7:58 am
Garth, you serve good Kool-aid. I also enjoy the particular Kool-aid SCM serves up backed up by well researched links, and I appreciate your allowing HIM to continue to enlighten the basket of deplorables here, with HIS youthful viewpoint. Truth makes an excellent blend.
As for the pile on of bullying HIM (SCM), it reminds me of back in the sixties when we started to grow bangs, and hair over our ears, greasy old cave farts like IHCTD9 still wearing rolled up cuffs on their pants, would ask if we were a boy or a girl. Har har har. That particular bully boy’s private school upbringing has him always thinking on the level of the Lord of the Flies plot on social issues, and we know how that story ends. His recurring wet dream!
M64NS EX ONT/1979
——————-
You two should get a room. Do you really think she gives a crap about an old boomer like yourself just because you aren’t one of the successful elites that was gifted money from the sky back in the day when gas was $0.10/L and $3hr/hr was plenty to live on? Wake up. This woman only lives in her own bubble believing only in things that confirm her outlook in life
————

Politics sometimes hamper an otherwise perfectly good individual. I know a few that are hard to be around, two are old angry crusty racist Cons, one is an extremely angry millennial Lefty.

SCM looks to have lost control of her priorities hating on boomers because she assumes they ALL had it easy, while she thinks she’s got it so hard.

Wrk.dover may be another example of same. In real life, we are probably very similar in lifestyle. He lives rurally, works with his hands, has a shop full of tools, works on his own vehicles, probably quite independent, self sufficient, and an overall hands on guy. There are just a handful of folks on this board like him, and I am one of them. Alas, he can’t stand me because he associates me with whatever he hates (and that’s the correct word) about right wingers. Outside of the politics, we are very likely living nearly identical lives.

Many good friends of mine are lefties. My own wife of 20 years is, and always was; a card carrying hard left wing NDP voting second wave feminist. Not hard to do if politics are put 3/4 of the way down the priority list where they belong.

Of course, this is the Internet, so maybe we’re all just trolling for kicks in our spare time :). I suspect SCM falls in this category.

#175 Sam the Sham on 01.05.18 at 11:10 am

One thing people forget about minimum wage jobs back in the day (70s and 80s) was that after working nine months you could quit and go on unemployment insurance for a couple of months. The minimum wage employees worked all fall, winter and spring and took the summer off. This coincided with all of the students looking for summer jobs. Actually it worked out quite well for everybody!

#176 poy on 01.05.18 at 11:19 am

Prices of detached are down in vancouver because higher end homes over 2.5 mil arent selling. Houses under 1.4 still selling with multiple offers. the first 3 months of this year i think condos will continue to be hot. Those who locked in before the new year have 120 days to purchase a home. after that we will see how it goes.

#177 InvestorsFriend on 01.05.18 at 11:25 am

Rentiering is evil or Noble?

#160 ben on 01.05.18 at 10:17 am complimented me and Adam Smith saying:

Quotes from a couple of geniuses:

Investors Friend:

> Rentier is most decidedly not a bad word. It’s a goal!

Adam Smith

> “As soon as the land of any country has all become private property, the landlords, like all other men, love to reap where they never sowed and demand a rent even for its natural produce.”

So the goal is to reap what you have not sown. Sure thing. My aim is to have mean reap what they sow because that’s morally correct (and better for all).

Do you mean that you want to, for example, buy some land near where you know a train station will be built with taxpayer dollars, and then whilst others build up a town around you, you simply reap the rewards after doing nothing? Another similar problematic behaviour: expecting to realise huge gains on property despite simply holding the property for ten years.

An example that is not rentier behaviour: taking a property in a run-down state, spending 50K doing it up and selling it for around 50K plus time expenses. You added the value: no problem.

Another example: you buy a run-down house and spend (inefficiently) 50K doing it up and sell it for 500K more. That is not your work, the price of land went up, it will be paid for by someone doing real work via renting money from a bank.

Hope that provides some clarity.

****************************************
Ben is apparently against any unearned portion of capital gains particularly from holding land including houses.

I would say the gains that so many people had simply due to a massive decline in interest rates and unexpected rises in property values were perhaps in some sense unearned. They arose in part from luck. But the recipients of the gains had their money tied up in those assets. There was no guarantee that interest rates would fall and/or property values rose. Many have predicted just the opposite for years.

I would say that such gains fall to the owners just as losses have in the past.

What I would also say is that I see little or no reason to tax capital gains of any kind at half the rate applicable to labour including professional service income. Or to not tax the gains on personal residences at all. I do not see these huge tax breaks as fair.

Perhaps realised capital gains could be adjusted down for inflation and then taxed just like regular income.

Perhaps the exemption from tax on gains on personal residences could be phased out and/or capped including perhaps the ability to defer the gain when the proceeds are invested in another residence so as not to impede labour mobility. It might be fair to tax such gains in estates. But it might also be fair to allow large capital gains to be spread over several years so that they are not taxed in the highest tax brackets.

By all means those with only labour income should question why income from capital should be taxed at far lower rates as today.

Meanwhile I would suggest that people, especially younger people, work to get into a position where some of their income is from non-labour sources including capital gains, dividends and interest income. Why not have your savings / investments deservedly make money for you while you sleep as your savings / investments fund the creation of goods and services and buildings enjoyed by others?

But what would Ben suggest?

#178 'Shroom Cloud on 01.05.18 at 11:28 am

His Story 101

Everyone (hopefully) knows that “Little Boy” was dropped On Hiroshima to end the war. Some allege that “Fat Man” was later dropped on Nagasaki as payback for Pearl Harbour. Is Trump payback for Obama? Maybe a question for the next generation, if they are still around.

“You can always count on Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.” Churchill

“Why can’t we use nuclear weapons?” Trump

#179 Blackdog on 01.05.18 at 11:40 am

My last comment is gone. This could mean I made a good point, particularly considering how said comment was politely expressed unlike many others posted here on a regular basis yet not deleted. Expecting clever, snide retort and/or another deleted comment. In any event I get it. Rude, attacking, feminist bashing, mysoginist, bullying comments OK. “Racist” comments (even if not really racist) not OK.

Nothing was deleted. But you are testing me. – Garth

#180 Kelsey on 01.05.18 at 11:42 am

# 136 Madcat

And what’s wrong with the coming Communism? It just hasn’t been done right yet and needs more enlightened Millenials like me and SCM. It’s a new era and the world is ready – it’s truly different this time. You and your fat cat boomer friends just don’t get it.

#181 Tony on 01.05.18 at 11:43 am

Re: #175 poy on 01.05.18 at 11:19 am

Vancouver and Brampton should take the biggest hit in Canada due to the new B20 OSFI rules.

#182 The Wet One on 01.05.18 at 11:45 am

What outport? – Garth

Edmonton. One of the smaller ones in the country. ;-)

#183 jess on 01.05.18 at 11:45 am

7 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 6:24 pm

re: wealthier specuvestors

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/are-401k-fees-making-companies-richer-at-the-expense-of-workers/
401ks
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/?q=401k+
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/retirement-gamble/

Tibble v. Edison International, 575 U.S. ___ (2015), was a United States Supreme Court case in which the Court held that “because a fiduciary normally has a continuing duty to monitor investments and remove imprudent ones, a plaintiff may allege that a fiduciary breached a duty of prudence by failing to properly monitor investments and remove imprudent ones. Such a claim is timely as long it is filed within six years of the alleged breach of continuing duty.”[1]

Press Releases | November 27, 2017
Delay of ‘Best Interest’ Fiduciary Rule Denies a Safe and Secure Retirement for Millions of Americans
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Monday, November 27, 2017 Contact: Nick Jacobs, 202-618-6430 or [email protected] Washington, D.C. – Stephen W. Hall, Legal Director and Securities Specialist for Better… Read More

#184 PastThePeak on 01.05.18 at 11:46 am

Despite the stellar jobs report, Poloz won’t raise rates in January. He will continue to site the uncertainties of NAFTA, new banking regulations, and highlight that inflation is not yet showing itself much.

He might hike in March. I see only 2 BoC rate increases in 2018.

The only thing Poloz is concerned about is the currency, and wanting it to go lower while not appearing to do so publicly (for fear of pissing of the yanks). He knows that Canada’s competitiveness is pooched and only way we can compete for exports is lower dollar.

#185 Sonny on 01.05.18 at 11:48 am

Multiple Tim Hortons franchises, other businesses cut pay, benefits, citing minimum wage hike

“Ontario workers at Sunset Grill, Wimpy’s and East Side Mario’s say they’re feeling the pinch”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tim-hortons-heirs-minimum-wage-wynne-ontario-1.4472878

#186 aa5 on 01.05.18 at 11:49 am

Sometimes leftwing people are irrational.. but for many they work in government jobs, where their total compensation is say $130-140k a year.

And realistically in the private sector their total compensation would be $70-$80k per year.

They are very, very pro-big government. And honestly if the government came to you and deposited $50,000 each and every year into your bank account – you might become very pro-big government too.

What makes these leftists seem so irrational is they can’t just say this reason they support ‘socialism’. So they come up with all sorts of hard to swallow rationalizations for why it is in our interest to transfer an extra $50k a year from us to them.

#187 Never Neverland on 01.05.18 at 11:55 am

“Never give in, never give in, never, never, never, never—in nothing, great or small, large or petty—never give in except to convictions of honor and good sense.” Churchill

“Happy New Year to all, including to my many enemies and those who have fought me and lost so badly they just don’t know what to do. Love!” Trump

#188 ben on 01.05.18 at 11:57 am

Hi. I’m a georgist therefore I would tax land, not labour.

If you are creating wealth you keep most of it. If you are appropriating wealth you seem most of it taxed away.

That’s what most people on this site claim to want, for the “doers” to get their rewards.

Yet when we get down to the brass-tacks many oppose taxing land because they want a free ride.

I’d disagree that land has been a two-way bet for the past 25 years. That is changing now as demographics shift and they can’t use the old trick of decreasing rates every time they want to win votes. But we need to understand why we have this mess. It’s because we don’t distinguish between wealth created and wealth appropriated.

In short we laud the rentier who “made” $1m speculating on land as much as the man who created a great small business worth $1m, adding value in the process. We have to understand the role of land in the economy. We have to understand that banks are not intermediaries of funds and in fact create money when they lend (primarily against) land.

These are in my opinion the type of things it would be great to see Garth fold into this blog because right now it’s missing a trick in not joining the dots. Often we see him and posters get in a muddle when trying to articulate why to defend “entrepreneurs” when speaking of realtors and factory owners in the same breath.

Georgism isn’t left or right, it’s the missing piece in the puzzle of who deserves what. We need to tax land correctly.

#189 LivinLarge on 01.05.18 at 12:07 pm

“What I would also say is that I see little or no reason to tax capital gains of any kind at half the rate applicable to labour including professional service income”…one reason is that capital gains have typically come with a significant element of capital risk and the tax system has been employed to compensate for the risk. Until recently a principial residence has normally appreciated roughly in relationship to inflation but that changed post 1975 so capital gains on residences was orderly and related to the general economic health of Canadians. The growth of and then loosening of consumer credit in the late 70s disconnected residence prices fm the general economy. I am unfortunately expecting the Liberals to start taking steps to restrict the tax free status of principal residences and the registration of the quantum of principal residence capital gains is the “handwriting on the wall” for ths shift.

When home ownership was considered an inflation hedge then all worked well and was encouraged but alas that paradigm is long gone.

The bulk of capital gains unrelated to home ownership still comes with the expected element of risk as the markets of 2008-10 demonstrate and removing the incentive to invest will have a seriously negative imoact on broader economic growth and sustained economic growth i.e. orderly inflation is the goal of all governments.

#190 Ian on 01.05.18 at 12:09 pm

#183 Peak

I think that’s right.

BoC now will invent all kinds of nonsense to explain why they don’t need to raise, to Garth’s point earlier this week that ‘central bank speak’ is a whole artform in itself that needs to be decoded.

I have a feeling they’re under pressure from Tax Fairness and his good buddies at Finance to not raise either, as Tax Fairness wants to do his own version of ‘quantitative easing’ on the various housing bubbles here, meaning ‘kick the can down the road past the 2019 election so we don’t get screwed at the polls.’

Boy if the USD index keeps tanking they are really in a bind!

#191 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.05.18 at 12:13 pm

Hi Kids! Here’s a little history lesson from Bytor.

Recall, if you will, what happened the last time a member of the upper crust said “let them eat cake”.

Don’t fail this one! There’s no grading on a curve.

#192 InvestorsFriend on 01.05.18 at 12:17 pm

Latest Mortgage Arrears

Canadian bankers Association has posted latest 90 day mortgage arrears figures. But this “latest” is only up to September. There figures are always a few months behind but right now even more so. They promise to have October soon.

https://www.cba.ca/Assets/CBA/Files/Article%20Category/PDF/stat_mortgage_db050_en.pdf

These numbers lag and Garth (as I recall) says they are useless. My own suspicion is that the banks are more or less hiding delinquencies by sort of allowing them in substance but not in form. (I understand a loan is no longer officially delinquent if the bank agrees to skipped payments or some other arrangement to reduce payments when the owner can’t pay the original agreed amount)

Another reason for low delinquencies is that an unemployed home owner with equity can for a long time keep making the mortgage payment by tapping a line of credit. Or even credit cards. That was not nearly as easy to do back in the 1990’s or certainly the 1980’s.

Ontario 90 day delinquencies remain at record lows 0.10% Just in one in one thousand! (I wonder how many houses of those with mortgages are in foreclosure proceedings, would it be more or less than one in one thousand houses with mortages?)

Alberta 90 day delinquencies were unchanged in September at 44 per one thousand. This is well above record lows of 13 in 1990 but well below the high of 0.84% or 84 per one thousand in January 2011.

#193 Fruit Vendor on 01.05.18 at 12:18 pm

My wife and I moved from Vancouver in late 2014. We did one last housing reno, made good money on our principal residence. We discussed the future, we both agreed that prices, “then” were not sustainable. We left money on the table but we now live in a smaller community with no debt. We do not buy items that we cannot afford. So, where is all this going? In my opinion, world-wide and local debt will be the down-fall of our society. The North American economy over the last few years has moved forward with housing construction. Housing is now unaffordable in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. Will rates rise, of course, but how much? Our dollar will strengthen further dampening our economy. House prices in decline will compromise many households. Many are now living on increased debt loads monthly only because their home is worth more. This does not compute. How will the banks and other financial entities deal with increased mortgage defaults? Will government step in to save those in financial difficulty? If so, further increase in taxes!! Again, in my view, the increased socialist tendencies of the provincial and federal governments is scary to say the least. Debt is death!!! We are living beyond our financial and environmental well-being yet society does not get it. Sad state of affairs.

#194 To err is human on 01.05.18 at 12:20 pm

“What is the use of living, if it be not to strive for noble causes and to make this muddled world a better place for those who will live in it after we are gone?” Churchill

“The point is, you can never be too greedy.” Trump

#19 Brian Woodward, you may have to forgive me; were you comparing Trump to “Winston” Churchill ?

#195 X on 01.05.18 at 12:25 pm

“To be blunt, I think it’s the act of a bully,” said Wynne about the Tim Hortons locations change of pay policy.

Ironic…isn’t that how she introduced the wage increase in the first place.

Can’t really be upset with not being paid to not work on your breaks though.

#196 Russ on 01.05.18 at 12:27 pm

As Garth points out, it is not different now.

This political comment is 1990, when young liberal type boomers were the age of current millies.

http://doonesbury.washingtonpost.com/strip#mutable

We were so cute back then.

BTW, don’t feed the troll. It just encourages her to post more often.

#197 april on 01.05.18 at 12:28 pm

$175 – So their supposedly trying to curb the debt bingers and yet they give people another 4 months to take on more debt according to you, but everyone will still have to qualify for the higher rate from here on in? Just cause someone locks in at say 3% doesn’t mean that’s the rate he gets. He’ll still have to qualify for approx 5% when he goes to the bank to secure a mortgage? Am I wrong anyone?

#198 Bhad Bhabie on 01.05.18 at 12:40 pm

where The Donald quackers at

eatin

crow

tgif

#199 Pre-retiree on 01.05.18 at 12:50 pm

What outport? – Garth

——————————————————-

Would be interested in hearing more about Ottawa.

#200 KLNR on 01.05.18 at 12:55 pm

hmm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadas-job-market-blows-past-forecasts-jobless-rate-af-40-year-low/article37511429/

#201 Kelsey on 01.05.18 at 12:57 pm

# 185

Sometimes leftwing people are irrational.. but for many they work in government jobs, where their total compensation is say $130-140k a year.

And realistically in the private sector their total compensation would be $70-$80k per year.

They are very, very pro-big government. And honestly if the government came to you and deposited $50,000 each and every year into your bank account – you might become very pro-big government too.

What makes these leftists seem so irrational is they can’t just say this reason they support ‘socialism’. So they come up with all sorts of hard to swallow rationalizations for why it is in our interest to transfer an extra $50k a year from us to them.

———————————-

Spot on!

#202 SoggyShorts on 01.05.18 at 1:01 pm

#114 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 11:30 pm
#111 IHCTD9 on 01.04.18 at 11:14 pm
I started working at 3.00/hr, now I make tons more.

————————-

Compare that $3/hour wage to how much a cup of coffee at Tims, or a litre of gas, or an average 1 bedroom rent was back in your day when dinosaurs roamed the Earth. Let’s say coffee was 15 cents or litre of gas was 25 cents or rental was $150/month.
**************************
That most certainly isn’t true in Alberta.
I started in the 90s at $5, and prices for most things including rent, gas, and coffee have NOT tripled since then, more like doubled.

#203 LivinLarge on 01.05.18 at 1:01 pm

“Another reason for low delinquencies is that an unemployed home owner with equity can for a long time keep making the mortgage payment by tapping a line of credit. “…did you miss the Stats Can employment numbers from yesterday? There aren’t any appreciable volumes of unemployed home owners. Unemployment is a a 49+ year low.

#204 Newcomer on 01.05.18 at 1:05 pm

#139 maxx on 01.05.18 at 7:40 am
….

Your stupid, ill-informed, ageist rants … border on hate.

Would that you did humanity a favour and flushed yourself a few galaxies away.
——-

Glad you weighed in. Heaven forbid we start hating on each other.

#205 Old Dog on 01.05.18 at 1:07 pm

Garth you must have a strong constitution to read through some of the posts left here.
It would be nice if the posters would leave their personal agendas in their heads where they belong. Lets just discuss the housing and investment markets and keep the other useless BS at home. I enjoy the market and investment strategies and discussions of the housing bubble and where it’s headed. Here’s to some interesting conversations in the New Year.

#206 Old (fake?) News on 01.05.18 at 1:13 pm

His Story 101 – Ancient Economics

Interesting read, but way too long. Academics, eh?

http://michael-hudson.com/2000/03/how-interest-rates-were-set-2500-bc-1000-ad/

“The modern assumption is that no matter what governments do to steer the economy, the market will undo such efforts.[12] ……..

What were the Babylonians (and for that mater [sic], the Judaeans and Israelites) thinking of? I think they knew something that modern economic theory does not acknowledge: if “market forces” are left to themselves, they lead to widening economic polarization and growing disequilibrium as financial claims on wealth and income tend inexorably to exceed the ability to pay (the Frederick Soddy principle). Interest rates exceeded profit and crop-surplus (“real rent”) rates.”

#207 conan on 01.05.18 at 1:17 pm

” These minimum wage jobs were never meant to be jobs that people could live on.” – Many who post here

True that, but people are not having kids like they used to, and these min wage, low margin places, are everywhere now. So you are forced to employ adults, or robots. But there are no robots, yet.

No one signs up for slavery, it is forced upon them.

#208 Wrk.dover on 01.05.18 at 1:18 pm

Re: #173 IHCTD9 on 01.05.18 at 10:56 am

No hate going on here Buddy. That is a messy emotion, best lived without! The old fart reference was in relation to your age vs SCM. I am yet older, wrinkly and balding like Crusty the Clown, if that makes your day. Still doing multiple one hand push-ups though. I am saddened by your tunnel vision of the big picture. This essay…#151 Ace Goodheart on 01.05.18 at 9:20 am…draws the picture of what you are inadvertently supporting with your adamant mantra. My trade wages were always based just above minimum, somewhat. Boosted by unions (not a member) partially. Without either supports, I would have been homeless before that was even a thing. Every one wants my money, no one wants to pay me with theirs.

I just like facts and precise measurements, not emotions, or opinions. That is my whole thing. Make peace with logic. Live well. Help somebody. Even SCM.

#209 et erit dies una tua on 01.05.18 at 1:33 pm

#117 Smoking Man on 01.04.18 at 11:57 pm
Living the dream in SOCAL and getting a kick out of everyone back home fighting it out on min wage issue.
People ultimately start a business with expectation of getting rich. 90% fail but they tried. Not every brain Fart leads to riches but if you keep trying you will hit it one day.
All the vertue signaling commies on here if they had plan to become self employed and rich would ditch there Castro tee shirts in a heart beat. But their stupid, ignorant or scared little puppies so they attack the big dogs with big balls.
So human nature.
I’m making SMGA
Huge cut down on smokes and booze for me. Our rehab center opens next week. If you have a loved one hooked on oxy their going to die soon. Email me and I’ll put you in touch with my kid. A former addict himself who has saved hundreds of lives. Including mine.
Oh and we pay well above min wage.
Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.
…………………………………………………………………..
I thought you were the first customer that your son was going to straighten out?
BTW Didn’t you once say you started a business and then lost it? Your giving advice? WTF.
et erit dies una tua

#210 Victor V on 01.05.18 at 1:43 pm

All of a sudden a rate hike this month is looking a lot more possible

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/wrapup-1-strong-canadian-jobs-data-seen-boosting-chances-of-rate-hike

“I think there’s a rate hike in January,” wrote Stefan Marion, of National Bank. “You’re either data-dependant or you’re not. If you’re data-dependant and the data is as strong as it is right now, so all in all my view is that there is a rate hike in January.”

Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, who had previously predicted the next hike would be in March, said: “(This) could shift the dial on the Bank of Canada decision at the next policy meeting.”

“I’m not sure whether we’ll change our view at this point … but the jobs number has shifted the odds much higher,” he said in a phone interview.

#211 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.05.18 at 1:43 pm

Oh, rates ARE going up…

Just got home from lunch at Red Lobster… Been eating there for years as it’s just down the street. Anyway, long story short, I order my meal and the waiter says:

“I’ll bring you the salad this time because you’re a regular, but just so you know, they’ve removed the salad from the meal because of the minimum wage hike. The salad is now an extra charge. You can thank Ms. Wynne”

Inflation is upon us. Rates will rise and RE is toast.

By the way, there are some huge green doodles on the BTC chart today…. Hope y’all bought the dip.

#212 Victor V on 01.05.18 at 1:48 pm

Loonie spikes to almost 81 cents as odds of a January rate hike soar to 70%

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-fx-debt-c-jumps-to-3-month-high-as-jobs-data-ups-rate-hike-bets

The odds of a rate hike at the Bank of Canada’s next meeting on Jan. 17 soared to 70 per cent, from 40 per cent yesterday, based on trading in the swaps market.

Here we go. – Garth

#213 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.05.18 at 1:59 pm

Huge green “doodles”? Not what I typed. Lol autocorrect

This is a family blog. Suck it up. – Garth

#214 InvestorsFriend on 01.05.18 at 2:03 pm

Virtually No Unemployed Home Owners?

#202 LivinLarge on 01.05.18 at 1:01 pm quoted me:

“Another reason for low delinquencies is that an unemployed home owner with equity can for a long time keep making the mortgage payment by tapping a line of credit. “

Then said:

…did you miss the Stats Can employment numbers from yesterday? There aren’t any appreciable volumes of unemployed home owners. Unemployment is a a 49+ year low.

*****************************************
Good point unemployment is very low at 6.7% nationally. I agree that explains some of the reason for low 90-day mortgage delinquencies.

But 90 day delinquencies meanwhile are at just 0.1%.

What percentage of Homeowners would you estimate are unemployed (which means not working but actively looking for work)? More than 0.1% perhaps?

And what percent of homes have no owner in the house employed? Single unemployed? Couples where only one normally works but is unemployed currently? Couples where both are unemployed?

#215 InvestorsFriend on 01.05.18 at 2:05 pm

Sorry, I believe my 6.7% national unemployment rate should read 5.7%. But Alberta is at 6.9%.

#216 LivinLarge on 01.05.18 at 2:13 pm

“You are making nothing until you sell. – Garth”…or until a HELOC gets its hook into it.

#217 n1tro on 01.05.18 at 2:20 pm

#207 Wrk.dover on 01.05.18 at 1:18 pm
Re: #173 IHCTD9 on 01.05.18 at 10:56 am

I just like facts and precise measurements, not emotions, or opinions. That is my whole thing. Make peace with logic. Live well. Help somebody. Even SCM.
—————————-
You seem selective in the facts you like. You like SCM’s “well researched facts” supporting forced minimum wages is good for Seattle thus should be good for all.

Yet when Gil from yesterday’s post #220 linked to the same researchers showing contradicting results after further research, there is no response other than SCM saying

“It was such a huge success that corporate shills had to come up with some absurd study that it was terrible for workers, to trick people like you who don’t know any better.”

Where then Gil responded…

“your links are from 2016, we are in 2018 remember? It takes time. The data that I pointed out is the second year of the same study commissioned by the ones who introduced the raise. Hard to argue they are ideologically motivated”

DATA FROM THE SECOND YEAR OF THE SAME STUDY COMMISSIONED BY THE ONES WHO INTRODUCED THE RAISE…

Then SCM does a rant of some sort to get her comment deleted and never rebukes Gil’s argument.

So are those the “facts” you like thus cheer leading for SCM?

#218 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 2:22 pm

DELETED

#219 jess on 01.05.18 at 2:27 pm

smc: “weapons of math destruction”
larry summers remarked on the low numbers of women in math and the hard science might be due to genetic inferiority what he called the unequal distribution of “intrinsic aptitude.”
===============
derman & wilmott
the modellers oath hum …how many think in these terms?

i will remember that i didn’t make the world, and it doesn’t satisfy my equations.

though i will use models boldly to estimate value, i will not be overly impressed by mathematics

i will never sacrifice reality for elegance without explaining why i have done so
nor will i give the people who use my model false comfort about its accuracy. instead,i will make explicit its assumptions and oversights.

i understand that my work may have enormous effects on society and the economy,many of them beyond my comprehension.
===========================
big data
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2018-01-05/chinas-first-centralized-online-personal-credit-database-takes-shape-101194124.html

#220 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 2:31 pm

#126 Workit on 01.05.18 at 1:13 am

Metro Inc. made $600 million in PROFIT last year. They didn’t have to cut anyone’s hours and they can easily afford to pay $14/hour.

I honestly don’t think people realize that employee costs are a tax deductible expense for corporations. As are all their costs.

https://finance.google.com/finance?q=TSE%3AMRU&fstype=ii&ei=Fs1PWqjsHdihjAHe8pOQBw

Learn to read an income statement. – Garth

#221 Newcomer on 01.05.18 at 2:33 pm

#155 Calgary Rip Off on 01.05.18 at 9:43 am

In Calgary yet again, houses remain a rip off. Why? In many cases rentals are more expensive than getting a mortgage.
——-

That is actually how it normally should be. That’s usually why rentals exist. Someone buys a place (with a mortgage) and rents it out for more than the cost of the mortgage and other carrying costs. The rental produces a small cash flow each month and mortgage gets paid off over time. Any other rental situation is a weird and unstable thing.

#222 Stan Brooks on 01.05.18 at 2:35 pm

Great news from the Canadian job market:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/newsalert-statistics-canada-says-78-133453857.html

Probably fake one.

How could we have a booming economy that is accompanied with huge ever growing deficit and TSX relatively flat?

It beats me big time.
Unless the ‘growth’ is due to the deficit….

Anyway, it is fascinating to see an economy based on ever growing credit and deficit that has strengthening currency at the same time!

Amazing feat.
By bet is that it is shallow.

I will continue diversifying out of Canada.
every single penny

#223 Stan Brooks on 01.05.18 at 2:38 pm

Be aware of the inflation.

Be aware.

#224 SoggyShorts on 01.05.18 at 2:41 pm

#206 conan on 01.05.18 at 1:17 pm
” These minimum wage jobs were never meant to be jobs that people could live on.” – Many who post here

True that, but people are not having kids like they used to, and these min wage, low margin places, are everywhere now. So you are forced to employ adults, or robots. But there are no robots, yet.

No one signs up for slavery, it is forced upon them.
**************************
Hang on a sec… First of all min wage =/= slavery, and secondly just because min wage jobs exist doesn’t mean you are forced into them for life.

Back when things cost half as much, and I was making $5/h, I never expected to raise a family as a busboy, that’s ridiculous.

#225 Stan Brooks on 01.05.18 at 2:41 pm

Any hope that BOC ‘rate hike’ will compensate for the expected 10-15 % increase in food prices this spring alone due to minimum wage increases is just plain stupidity.

CAD should be at 60 cents.

#226 Mark on 01.05.18 at 2:51 pm

“It beats me big time.
Unless the ‘growth’ is due to the deficit….”

Deficits are similar under Trudeau (if not slightly less, only $24B/year for the first 2 years in office, which is actually less than Harper ran in his tenure, inflation-adjusted). So this wouldn’t be the cause. Deficits are not growing either. They’re not shrinking, but definitely aren’t growing.

I think the problem in Canada is that of job quality, not quantity. Lots and lots of positions in low-end service sector roles. Restaurants. Nursing homes. Cleaning. Labourers. Very few higher-end professional jobs.

#227 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 2:54 pm

Learn to read an income statement. – Garth

———————

$571 million profit last year if you really want to be picky about it Garth. I was rounding up. I know how to read an income statement Garth.

Why’d you delete my previous comment? Another harmless one. Nothing racist there cmon man.

I warned you about immigrant-bashing. You are done here. – Garth

#228 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 3:02 pm

DELETED

#229 BoomerKid on 01.05.18 at 3:05 pm

#146 I’m stupid

I understand increasing minimum wage will positively impact low income families, but if the number of jobs available to high school students decreases substantially the increase will hurt families. The minimum wage earning parent will need to provide more support to their 16-20 year old children instead of having them be self reliant.

Life was hard but if those shitty jobs didn’t exist welfare would have been our only option. The government should be trying to focus on legislation to provide opportunity for its citizens. My family could’ve gone on welfare but we were a hard working family struck by tragedy and keeping our dignity and having pride was important. It seems the Wynn govt is promoting legislation that would turns my childhood family into beggars.

——-

Interesting thought. I’ve actually seen this happen.

I’ve seen this happen at the universities over the last decade. Many undergrad students in science want to get experience in lab jobs over the summer. It gives them “lab experience”, pays a small amount, and helps them in their careers. When I was an undergrad student (10 years ago), the pay rate was around $2500 for the summer. The universities/hospitals have since implemented minimum wages for summer students, so it is more than double that at some places. The idea was to pay students “fair” wages. They have also made wages mandatory so volunteers aren’t allowed. The idea is that students shouldn’t be exploited, etc, which is great in theory. The only problem is that the funding for these jobs hasn’t increased, so there are half the number of spots available. Most of these spots end up going to well-connected students (eg. parents are friends of professors), so the number of spots available for hard-working, but not well-connected students has dramatically reduced. It’s kind of sad because a few, well-connected students who never needed the money anyways get great summer jobs and “experience”. And the hard-working and not well-connected students who both need money and experience/jobs don’t get anything at all.

#230 Stan Brooks on 01.05.18 at 3:05 pm

#225 Mark on 01.05.18 at 2:51 pm
“It beats me big time.
Unless the ‘growth’ is due to the deficit….”

Deficits are similar under Trudeau (if not slightly less, only $24B/year for the first 2 years in office, which is actually less than Harper ran in his tenure, inflation-adjusted). So this wouldn’t be the cause. Deficits are not growing either. They’re not shrinking, but definitely aren’t growing.

I think the problem in Canada is that of job quality, not quantity. Lots and lots of positions in low-end service sector roles. Restaurants. Nursing homes. Cleaning. Labourers. Very few higher-end professional jobs.

——————————

So how could low paid workers ‘afford’ expensive homes with strengthening currency?

It is nonsense.

I have a feeling that we are just about to enter a hell storm when that crap really, really hits the fan.

How we were able to avoid it so far is a mistery to me.

#231 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 3:06 pm

DELETED

#232 InvestorsFriend on 01.05.18 at 3:06 pm

TRUE but misleading unemployment data

All the news is that the 5.7% unemployment rate is the lowest since 1976. Actually the lowest since comparable data first became available going back to 1976.

Again true but very misleading.

Actually the unemployment rate in January 1976 was quite a bit higher at 7.1%. It never got under 6.7% that year.

The last next lowest unemployment rate to December 2017 was not 1976 but was in October 2007 at 5.8%

That paints a rather different story than all the references today to the lowest since 1976 which is true but misleading. Poor wording by Stats Canada in their press release and journalists did not bother clicking to the CANSIM table.

#233 Polozified on 01.05.18 at 3:09 pm

Wynne’s already done enough to win another majority by buying every min-wage worker’s vote with the hike and every under-25’s vote with free drugs. Not to mention the memory-of-a-goldfish vote with 25% off Hydro bills that the Liberals literally doubled.

You don’t need to win the popular vote to win a majority, just enough morons to get you past the post. The Ontario Liberals are so much better at politics than their competition it’s actually sad.

#234 Here come the 70's on 01.05.18 at 3:10 pm

A hit of nostalgia for those who remember the TV show when a pound of bacon was 500 grams. A “pound” was reduced to 375 grams a few years ago because of the porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED). The newspaper is smaller too, I guess the fake news takes up less space. Phones are portable now and cost a lot more. The oil shock in ’71 drove up the price of anything containing even a tiny bit of plastic. Is anything not made entirely of plastic today?

Now the time for some serious price gouging has finally arrived to save the economy from the uppity poor. I’ll need to pickup a PEDometer at Costco to keep track. I just hope they don’t fry their own bacon.

#235 Yorkville Renter on 01.05.18 at 3:10 pm

here’s what I dont understand about those who think a 20%+ hike is ok because rich owners pay for it – what amount of profit is allowable before you agree that the costs are too high? what are you basing that on?

also, if profits sink so does tax revenue.

#236 Ronaldo on 01.05.18 at 3:23 pm

#146 I’m stupid

I understand increasing minimum wage will positively impact low income families, but if the number of jobs available to high school students decreases substantially the increase will hurt families. The minimum wage earning parent will need to provide more support to their 16-20 year old children instead of having them be self reliant.

Life was hard but if those shitty jobs didn’t exist welfare would have been our only option. The government should be trying to focus on legislation to provide opportunity for its citizens. My family could’ve gone on welfare but we were a hard working family struck by tragedy and keeping our dignity and having pride was important. It seems the Wynn govt is promoting legislation that would turns my childhood family into beggars.
—————————————————————–
Very true. The above was our families story as well. It was continue on welfare or we all get a job to help our mother and that’s what we did. At 11, 13, 15 and 16. We were able to rise above poverty and go on to do very well. We were able to clothe ourselves and provide our school supplies and other spending money. It was not such a hardship for us but it certainly helped our mother get on her feet as she also worked at a minimum wage job. And besides that we were caring for our crippled grandfather. We were grateful for the jobs we had.

#237 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 3:23 pm

DELETED

#238 LivinLarge on 01.05.18 at 3:27 pm

“What percentage of Homeowners would you estimate are unemployed (which means not working but actively looking for work)? More than 0.1% perhaps?

And what percent of homes have no owner in the house employed? Single unemployed? Couples where only one normally works but is unemployed currently? Couples where both are unemployed?”…in a word? Negligible. Certainly not zero but an insignificantly low number.

With 41 year low unemployment and a 2017 CPI of 1.58% essentially everyone who truly needs to work to survive, is.

Mortgage payments, after formula and diapers are the last thing to be missed, usually.

For ages now, initial mortgages have required two incomes to quality and with lowwww unemployment couoled with lowwww inflation the default rate “should” be historically low as well.

As I mentioned earlier in the week, I read and analyze a lot of financial statements in a year and particularly like the bank’s quarterly statements because they contain subtle indicators from their armies of actuaries and economists. Loan loss provisions are a great indicator of the bank’s real feelings on the health of the economy as whole and there have yet to be any indication of anymslow creep up in loan loss provisions.

So? The banks don’t seem to be taking any proactive steps in expectation of near term increases in near term defaults.

#239 conan on 01.05.18 at 3:27 pm

Ouch, strike three on SCM. I need popcorn.

#240 n1tro on 01.05.18 at 3:33 pm

#226 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 2:54 pm

I warned you about immigrant-bashing. You are done here. – Garth
——————–
What are the odds that we see a bunch of “previously never seen before” users calling for SCM’s unbanning soon?

#241 conan on 01.05.18 at 3:35 pm

“The Ontario Liberals are so much better at politics than their competition it’s actually sad.”-Polozified

I think they are Liberal in name only. More of a Frankenstein government made up of NDP, Liberal, and Conservative. I think much of the bureaucracy has Mike Harris’d itself into some dark hole. The Liberals are pulling the rope, trying to get them out. Then its the NDP part with these “whack-a-mole” minimum wage increases.

#242 Damifino on 01.05.18 at 3:41 pm

#187 ben

That’s what most people on this site claim to want, for the “doers” to get their rewards.
————————————

Not quite. What we want is for the “riskers” to get their reward if such rewards have materialized in the normal course of legal human enterprise.

Risk might involve working 70 hour weeks for years on end while paying employee wages before oneself, or simply investing previously amassed capital in a venture with no guarantee of return and every possibility of 100% loss.

Both scenarios are risky, the ‘doing’ part is immaterial.

#243 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 3:46 pm

DELETED

#244 ben on 01.05.18 at 3:53 pm

Damifino – well right now and for the past 25 years land has been zero risk because the public make the investment and the reward is privately captured.

I guess you could say the current system where we don’t ask people to pay for access to prime land at fair value distorts risk.

I can see where you are coming from but look behind the actual current state of affairs to the root causes driving it. We have a current set of variables but the framework dictates their values and politicians simply want to increment/decrement a few variables through tax tweaks. The framework will win out therefore one must tackle this.

#245 ben on 01.05.18 at 3:55 pm

I would add that I also feel that people ought to be rewarded for value add. Risk isn’t the be-all and end-all. One can gamble at high risk yet the value to society is nil.

If we had a system that made adding value more profitable than taking insane leveraged risks against financial products I think we’d see more value generated and retained by the right people.

The current system is a hell of a long way from this.

#246 KLNR on 01.05.18 at 3:56 pm

@#232 Polozified on 01.05.18 at 3:09 pm

What’s sad is a unified right still can’t beat the divided left.

#247 Rooster on 01.05.18 at 3:56 pm

#239 n1tro on 01.05.18 at 3:33 pm

#226 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 2:54 pm

I warned you about immigrant-bashing. You are done here. – Garth
——————–
What are the odds that we see a bunch of “previously never seen before” users calling for SCM’s unbanning soon?

********
I think the kid’s heart is in the right place, but he just doesn’t know how to make friends, or an argument. I’m concerned that if he loses this job he might lose his mind, too.

#248 Ronaldo on 01.05.18 at 3:58 pm

#239 n1tro on 01.05.18 at 3:33 pm

#226 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 2:54 pm

I warned you about immigrant-bashing. You are done here. – Garth
——————–
What are the odds that we see a bunch of “previously never seen before” users calling for SCM’s unbanning soon?
————————————————————-
Best news I’ve heard all day. Good riddance.

#249 Innocent Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 3:58 pm

STILL DELETED

#250 T on 01.05.18 at 4:04 pm

#114 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.04.18 at 11:30 pm
#111 IHCTD9 on 01.04.18 at 11:14 pm
I started working at 3.00/hr, now I make tons more.

————————-

Compare that $3/hour wage to how much a cup of coffee at Tims, or a litre of gas, or an average 1 bedroom rent was back in your day when dinosaurs roamed the Earth. Let’s say coffee was 15 cents or litre of gas was 25 cents or rental was $150/month. Whatever it was. Now take that ratio and compare it to today and you will see that wages should in fact be even higher.

You boomers always lose the argument on this metric.

Don’t even get me started on tuition and “back in my day, I worked the summer to pay for my education”

—————

Here you go again making assumptions without data. Even worse is now you are fabricating data, pulling numbers out of the air. Then shooting your mouth off like you know something.

You add no value to this blog. I have not read a single constructive comment from you.

I hope Garth re-bans you. I’m sure it would save him some time and grief, and avid readers like myself would appreciate it.

#251 LivinLarge on 01.05.18 at 4:08 pm

#248 STILL DELETED

Did he at least use a distinctly unique email address?

#252 C.H. on 01.05.18 at 4:10 pm

@ SCM

Your lack of understanding of the demographic and structural support systems regarding unemployment differences between Canada and the US is painful to read.

It is your inability to see the big picture that has given us millennials the bad rep we have been labelled with. I’m all for voicing opinions, but please at least be knowledgeable on the topics before diving in so head strong.

Love the blog Garth, keep up the great work.

#253 rainclouds on 01.05.18 at 4:12 pm

@175 POY “Prices of detached are down in vancouver because higher end homes over 2.5 mil arent selling. Houses under 1.4 still selling with multiple offers.”

Maybe in your world, In the real one with data? 3 OF 4 house listings are showing price REDUCTIONS. Hardly a scenario of widespread bidding wars as you claim

carry on….

https://www.myrealtycheck.ca/

#254 Yorkville Renter on 01.05.18 at 4:15 pm

#245 – the issue i simple – righties need to abandon their morality pitch and focus solely on economics and govt waste. many support that agenda… but once you have religious zealots calling for legislative changes to reflect their morality all is lost.

for example, the know-nothing bible thumper from Niagara who’s about 22 years old… making 6 figures with no relevant life experience, telling me how to live my life… sad.

#255 Innocent Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 4:15 pm

DELETED

#256 LivinLarge on 01.05.18 at 4:24 pm

“If we had a system that made adding value more profitable than taking insane leveraged risks against financial products I think we’d see more value generated and retained by the right people.”…and just who is t who decides what’s “insane risk” and who are the “right people”?

#257 jess on 01.05.18 at 4:38 pm

More Zurich tax cheats come clean as data sharing looms
Reuters Staff
ZURICH (Reuters) – Switzerland’s largest and wealthiest canton saw a three-fold rise in the number of tax cheats turning themselves in during 2017, Zurich officials said on Thursday, as an international accord to share information on offshore wealth takes effect.The finance department said 6,150 Zurich taxpayers came clean on previously undisclosed assets in 2017, tripling the previous record set in 2016 and helping to disclose 1.3 billion Swiss francs (£983.52 million) in hidden wealth so far.
================
alain berset-_youngest-swiss-president-in-84-years-takes-office

swissinfo.ch:
In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, Switzerland blocked nearly CHF1 billion ($1 billion) belonging to fallen Egyptian, Libyan and Tunisian dictators and their families. But seven years later, not a single franc has made its way back to those countries. How do you explain this delay to those people whose national assets were looted by their leaders?

A.B.: Switzerland would like to go much faster. But this must be done in line with legal procedures and with the certainty that this money will arrive at the right place. But it is not always easy to know to whom and under what conditions this money can be returned. Although these funds remain frozen in Switzerland, they do not change ownership until we have managed to prove that their origin was illegal.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/alain-berset-_youngest-swiss-president-in-84-years-takes-office/43783510

#258 Damifino on 01.05.18 at 4:48 pm

#244 ben

If we had a system that made adding value more profitable than taking insane leveraged risks against financial products I think we’d see more value generated and retained by the right people.
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That’s something I can largely agree with.

But insanely leveraged risk taking is legal within the system and people are free do to as they please with their own time and capital. Or they should be.

In my mind, problems arise when risk takers won’t face up to negative outcomes and would rather have governments remedy their self-created messes.

True risk takers accept both outcomes and move forward. But they get do their backs up when non-risk takers want a piece of the reward but none of the loss.

#259 Kelsey on 01.05.18 at 4:57 pm

Ben, if it makes you feel better, the “Rentiers” eventually lose their fortune after several generations, so they only get to exploit you during this lifetime.

A great example is a man by the name of John Jacob Astor who was the German son of a butcher. He immigrated to the States and made a fortune trading fur and opium back when capitalism was alive and manly allowing for true class mobility. With his profits, he read the tea leaves and made huge bets buying up swathes of land in New York that would have been worth over $100B today. But eventually future generations regressed to the mean of human potential and had petty fights dissipating the family fortune and releasing lands back to a new generation of Rentiers.

In fact, the Waldorf hotel was built as a direct result of feuding between two of his descendants, and was originally conceived of as a horse stable with the sole intention of generating obnoxious smells for the neighbouring family member.

#260 Ronaldo on 01.05.18 at 5:01 pm

Good article on internet Trolls

https://www.theguardian.com/media-network/media-network-blog/2014/sep/18/psychology-internet-trolls-pewdiepie-youtube-mary-beard

#261 TheDood on 01.05.18 at 5:11 pm

#232 Polozified on 01.05.18 at 3:09 pm
Wynne’s already done enough to win another majority by buying every min-wage worker’s vote with the hike and every under-25’s vote with free drugs. Not to mention the memory-of-a-goldfish vote with 25% off Hydro bills that the Liberals literally doubled.

You don’t need to win the popular vote to win a majority, just enough morons to get you past the post. The Ontario Liberals are so much better at politics than their competition it’s actually sad.
_________________________________________
I’ll bet you a shiny new dime that Wynne will be tossed on the trash pile come the next election. Her government has done far too much to destroy the province. Free drugs and minimum wage hike’s are not enough.

The NDP didn’t have a a prayer in PC dominated Alberta and look what happened.

#262 SimplyPut7 on 01.05.18 at 5:20 pm

Remember when the housing speculators said rates could never rise?

‘All but one of the Big Six banks now say Canadians will see a rate hike this month’

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/most-big-canadian-banks-expect-jobs-data-to-force-polozs-hand

#263 ben on 01.05.18 at 5:27 pm

LivinLarge – you have to read up on it, that’s just a trite response that doesn’t in any way address what I’ve said.

Damifino – agreed people should be able to take risks if they choose. They should be free to lose it all. But that’s not what I’m saying, take a step back and look at the bigger picture. The present framework distorts risk by failing to correctly price land. The result of that is people pile into land for a risk free win since the end of the gold standard and the start of “true” fiat currency. (not that I’m a gold bug).

Land value tax is all about addressing the monopoly that is land. Many economists support it, have a read into it if you are interested as this blog totally fails (sorry Garth) to delve into the question of earned vs unearned income, which was at the center of debate in economics before the world turned dumb post 1970.

Progress and Poverty. Henry George:

https://www.amazon.com/Progress-Poverty-Press-Henry-George/dp/1409943666

Friedman also supported it. And Adam Smith. And recent nobel prize economists. And if you hate economists try Churchill who is quoted here all the time.

The reason this blog has turned into a slanging match, in my opinion, is you are all stuck on earned versus unearned income without actually putting your finger on that as a definition. You are relying on the system to validate income as “earned” because that person is holding 100k gains. But is the system correct to confer that gain?

Money is so ingrained in our culture we can’t see the wood for the trees. Almost every person you meet thinks banks are intermediaries of funds. They think a significant % of money is cash. This is all not correct.

Have a read of the book, he’s a great author. And have a great weekend.

#264 April B. on 01.05.18 at 5:40 pm

DELETED

#265 LivinLarge on 01.05.18 at 5:44 pm

“But insanely leveraged risk taking is legal within the system and people are free do to as they please with their own time and capital.”…let’s not blow this incentive concept out of the water. The incentive is the capacity to write off capital losses within the same asset class against capital gains within the same asset class until there are no remaining assets in the same class. Even then all the incentive amounts to is a saving of the resulting taxes i.e. there is no wholesale compensation from the treasury for taking risks.

#266 Penny Henny on 01.05.18 at 5:48 pm

I understand SCM’s frustration as I have made dozens of comments over the years that do not even appear (not even a deleted) even though they are on subject and not racist or ageist any other ist.

You were just being a dork. – Garth

#267 Ronaldo on 01.05.18 at 5:56 pm

Banning a troll from a blog is equivalent to taking away an addicts drugs and booting them out the door. You can almost picture the troll on the ground reaching up and scratching at the door begging to let them in again.

#268 KLNR on 01.05.18 at 6:30 pm

@#259 Ronaldo on 01.05.18 at 5:01 pm

Good article on internet Trolls

https://www.theguardian.com/media-network/media-network-blog/2014/sep/18/psychology-internet-trolls-pewdiepie-youtube-mary-beard
________________________________

according to that article most everyone on here is trolling each other lol

#269 Black on 01.05.18 at 8:09 pm

I love it when I whine about deleted comments and then suddenly they reappear.

#270 Blackdog on 01.05.18 at 8:10 pm

ooops…forgot the dog.

#271 Steven Rowlandson on 01.06.18 at 11:01 am

RE:#7

“Minimum wage is not meant to be a living wage”

Actually Screwed Canadian Millenial it is intended to be a maximum and minimum living wage for quite a few skilled and unskilled working men and in the eyes of employers it is far too much to bear or pay. Yes they do expect you to acquire skills and work for that miserble pitance orless, buy a home and raise a family on it and if you are smart enough to recognize the impossibility of it they will chuck crap at you , call you a bum and all kinds of vile epithets for not giving it all to the real estate god and working on the cheap to fight inflation by submitting to not getting pay raises on pain of getting fired. If you are not an elite worker like government employees, unionized workers or some well organized professionals you are little people who are going to get kiddie pay and are likely to be expunged from the gene pool for it. That is how it really is.

Crappy deal isn’t it?

#272 Cathy Groom on 01.06.18 at 11:50 am

So much to read in your blog and other news sources about the current housing market. But one for sure, I just watched the movie Tulip Fever, and market frenzy has not changed much over time.

#273 Sue on 01.06.18 at 12:45 pm

#228 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.05.18 at 2:54 pm
Learn to read an income statement. – Garth

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$571 million profit last year if you really want to be picky about it Garth. I was rounding up. I know how to read an income statement Garth.

Why’d you delete my previous comment? Another harmless one. Nothing racist there cmon man.

I warned you about immigrant-bashing. You are done here. – Garth

About time, thank you Garth!

#274 Prince Polo on 01.06.18 at 8:53 pm

Why doesn’t SCM/ICM start his/her own blog and post all of the links he/she desires? This is just getting tiresome and I’m an immigrant millennial. GASP!

#275 ozy - Someone STOP Global Warming on 01.07.18 at 1:11 am

STOP Global Warming – it’s too HOT in Ontario…

Where are the “scientists” now