Over

The dollar hit a glorious, brief 80 cents as the first trading day of the shiny new year dawned. The immediate reason: oil. It finally reached 60 bucks, and the black stuff is our biggest export. Oil’s going up because Iran’s in turmoil, and the OPECers are curbing production (to force oil up, duh).

Anyway, whatever reduces the price of a new Harley is good for the nation’s soul. But there’s more to note. The loonie jumped 7% during 2017. The country just created more jobs than in eight years. Corporate profits are running at double-digit levels. The banks alone make over $10 billion every 90 days. Canada led the G7 last year in growth. Government bond prices are going down and yields have popped higher.

So, yeah, this leads to one conclusion – likely confirmed by this Friday’s labour stats – rates are going up. Three times. Bank mortgages now at 3.25% will be at 4% by the end of 2018. That’s still cheap by long-term standards, but it’s almost double where they were in the storied Spring of 2017.

Those who believe the Bank of Canada will not move because Canadians pigged out on debt and levered up real estate when rates plunged are wrong. Over 90% of the time our bank follows the Fed, which jacked the cost of money four times in the last 12 months and will do so again three or four more in 2018. More in 2019. Then more in 2020. This is a fact of life everyone better get used to. The days of ultra-low rates and bloating houses are over.

Complicating it are two other realities. Almost half of all the existing mortgages in Canada come up for renewal during 2018, so most people will be refinancing at a higher rate. Second, of course, is the stress test – effectively preventing many homeowners from shopping around for a better rate. If they leave their existing lender, they’ll have to pass the test. To do so they must prove an income capable of easily carrying the loan at roughly 5% or their lender’s rate plus 2%, whichever’s higher. It’s a high bar to jump over for those who got into home ownership at 2.2%.

What should the strategy be, if you’re a renewer?

If you’ve got lots of equity and a healthy income then switching lenders might be a boffo idea. B20 reg changes will be throwing a big wet blanket over the entire mortgage business, at least for a while. What a great time to be negotiating the best possible deal with a lender hungry for more business and an enhanced market share. Of course if you’re afraid of failing the test and don’t move, expect to be plundered.

Second, lock in. The rate increase is not a blip. It won’t be truncated. Or short. This is the long-term normalization of the cost of money. No, we’re not going back to the decades-long average of 8% mortgages, but 6% doesn’t seem like a stretch.

Remember a $100,000 income and $100,000 down payment will get you a $694,000 house when mortgages are just under 3%. When loans move to 4%, that house shrinks to $606,000. At 6%, it gets you a $516,000 property. See how this works, kids? Houses went up when rates went down. Now we’re in reverse.

So, lock in.

But for how long? If we’re done with ridiculously cheap money and are looking at years of rates wafting higher, would it make sense to borrow on a 10-year basis?

The gnomes at RateSpy had an interesting piece on this a few days ago. Their conclusion: forget it. In the last 40 years there’s never been a 10-year period in which paying the premium for a 10-year loan saved you money over borrowing on a five-year basis.

But is it different this time? BMO, which is currently selling its 10-year product (in an environment filled with fear of rising rates – crafty), argues it might be. The bank is offering a decade-long commitment at about 3.5% – just a quarter point over the current fiver. So rates need only increase by about .6% for a borrower to do better by going super long.

But there are some disadvantages. Borrowers can’t get out of the loan for five years unless they sell the property. It doesn’t come with a line of credit (no Lambo for you). The allowed prepayment amount is less. And no 30-year amortization. After five years the mortgage becomes open (every mortgage does) so it can be paid off or refinanced at any time.

Rates will be one of the biggest stories in 2018. The impact on house sales and prices will be meaningful. The party’s over. Govern yourself accordingly.

140 comments ↓

#1 Jungle on 01.02.18 at 6:07 pm

hmmm will the boc hike this month?
If jobs report on Friday kills it, I think he might.

Ps, why does it seem everyone is in huge denial about rates going up? Especially those with a lot invested in re.

It’s not even a defence mechanism, they really believe rates will never go up and in fact go down.

#2 Rick on 01.02.18 at 6:08 pm

Oh yah, 1st

#3 Bandit is smarter than Garth Turner on 01.02.18 at 6:10 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/police-video-man-lighting-porsche-on-fire-1.4469760

Tolerant East York doesn’t welcome speculators owning Porsches in a typical middle class neighborhood? Good!

Or is it someone acting or faking it to get insurance claims? Bad!

#4 nick on 01.02.18 at 6:13 pm

wow that 10 year is great

#5 Bandit is smarter than Garth Turner on 01.02.18 at 6:14 pm

Should we buy US dollars, stuff it in a mattress or safe deposit box before the Poloz Peso kicks in, or should we wait in Mark’s deflation theory?

#6 prairie person on 01.02.18 at 6:15 pm

Garth, I think the people who assess properties for the municipalities are running behind. Just got my new valuation, up 200k. That is nuts. I know that builders are throwing up condos, houses, town houses, anything and everything as fast as they can. And they seem to be sold out shortly after the for sale sign has gone up but the guy just a few houses over from me has had a for sales sign for three months and it’s crickets. A seller can ask whatever he wants but nobody is obliged to pay it. I think that last year there were some over the top sales but those sales wouldn’t happen now. Two hundred thousand dollar increase over one year? I’ve quit getting phone calls from excited realtors asking if i want to sell my house. It feels like the apex has been reached and we’re dithering at the top.

#7 david on 01.02.18 at 6:16 pm

Garth. I live and walk a lot (sans dog these days – dam things need to live longer!!) in one of Ottawa’s fastest growing and healthiest suburbs (healthy meaning very very liquid, very reasonably priced, and a rental component to boot). Here’s my prediction: the townhome and modest priced SFH segments are seeing super huge demand and will escalate, in part because the stress tests (insured and uninsured) and higher rates will ultimately limit a $100K first time buyer to a max $400 to $450K mortgage. simple math and predictable. A SFH that sold for $385K (yes, minto and mattamy sell such things at those prices 25min from parliament hill) last year has gone to $440, and townhomes gone to high $300s. GTA and Van may be pooched, but many other cities and their burbs will be virtually unaffected by said stress tests. its good to be modest. let the price escalation of modest homes begin..

#8 The Boulder on 01.02.18 at 6:17 pm

Economy doing good, rate will go up, price will come down. Economy doing bad, rate will come down and price will go up.
The equation looks incomplete, house prices should go up and down with economy.

#9 Jay on 01.02.18 at 6:18 pm

What is lots of equity?

#10 Irish Stew on 01.02.18 at 6:19 pm

Thanks for taking the time to write this blog.

I admit it has been the “Angel” on my shoulder when “devil” is telling me to buy something!

#11 Lost...but not leased on 01.02.18 at 6:22 pm

PPHHyyyrrzzzt….
.and I have access to Canadian Retread “quantitative easing’

#12 Mortgage Attack on 01.02.18 at 6:22 pm

First

#13 Kelsey on 01.02.18 at 6:23 pm

For those complaining about CEO salaries – isn’t that an issue for the company’s shareholders? I understand that corporate governance is sometimes an issue and CEOs may be overpaid, but unless you’re complaining in the capacity of a shareholder, what difference does it make to you? Of course stock options have become overly lucrative when a company’s revenue can decline while its stock price soars due to buybacks and near-zero interest rates, but let’s put the blame for wealth inequality squarely where it belongs – at the feet of central banks and central planners, not greedy business owners responding to incentives like the rest of us.

#14 al sak on 01.02.18 at 6:24 pm

its the USD going down, against most currencies

#15 Debtslavecreator on 01.02.18 at 6:24 pm

How ironic b20 comes in just before the largest group of mortgage renewals in recent memory
The CUs have limited ability to take on any new volume but will do ok for at least the next 6 months but if new business grows too fast the taps will be turned off by their own limitations or via a provincial government order
Expect a sluggish economy
Still a good chance at a retest of the 2017 rate lows at some point in the next 5 years once the next recession comes
Hopefully not until early 2020s
Trump is an idiot but at least his tax reform and proposed infrastructure bill send an important message to American business – a positive message they are open
and support business
It buys us another 24-36 months possibly
But the next recession and crash will be one for the history books and will be much worse than 08
But hey for now enjoy what will likely be a good time
Hopefully the US grows fast enough to help us muddle through and get the debt levels down in the next 2-3 years before the next big one
I personally would go with a closed VRM as I think we raise 2 times at most before Poloz is forced to drop and within 12 months of that QE beaver style will come
Print or die stage … well actually we’re heading into the print until we die stage

#16 Rosa Ellum on 01.02.18 at 6:31 pm

Canada’s economy is SET TO SOAR!
$14 Minimum wage and $15 next year. Wealth is going to the people that need it and we will have a more competitive economy going forward! Long XIC for 2018!

#17 Former res of Shlong branch on 01.02.18 at 6:33 pm

Its about time.

#18 El presidents trump on 01.02.18 at 6:35 pm

Just wait til I kill NAFTA… see what the poodle does then
it’s toast. sad.

#19 IHCTD9 on 01.02.18 at 6:36 pm

Ubul on 01.02.18 at 3:31 pm
#179 IHCTD9

2500.00 for rent for 25 years

===

How do you manage to “lock in” your rent for 25 years?
How much did you pay 10 years ago vs now?
——-

So highball it at 3000.00 for 25 years.

Do the math. Now the extra costs of ownership are the same as rent instead of more – with Principal payments not factored in. You still don’t get a roof either.

By rights, my numbers on the house are equally lowball. Sewer and water bills could easily add up to 60 Thousand over 25 years. 1-2 good update Reno’s could run 50-100K. All the extra furniture, all the appliances, garbage disposal, I never added in any of this.

I payed rent of 600.00/month for a two bedroom in the mid 90’s. I now own a house for which the mortgage payments throughout the last term were about 550.00/month. That would have been throughout ’10-’15. I’d guess rent at the old place would be 1000.00/ mo. Buying became cheaper than rent in my area around 10 years ago.

Also for sake of interest, I’ve done reasonably accurate calculations to determine EVERYTHING I’ve put into my house since I purchased it. At current market values, I’d make a whopping 1-2% after everything is said and done. That’s being honest. Houses suck money on a regular basis, way more than anything else you’ve ever owned, and way more than most owners will admit to. I did 95% of the labour myself to keep costs down too.

Finally, we have invested regularly since before we bought a house, and the portfolio is WAY ahead of our house appreciation. When we sell, whatever we get for it will be gravy.

#20 Nik on 01.02.18 at 6:45 pm

where did come across this stat that half the mortgages are coming up for renewal in 2018? If we had same take rate for 5 year mortgages every year over the last 5 years then 20% comes up for renewal in 2018

#21 Smartalox on 01.02.18 at 6:53 pm

Those with a mortgage to renew, beware:

The sweetheart deals will be had for those with NEW mortgages, not existing ones.

Your lenders will know your financial position better than you will. They will know what you can and can’t qualify for, and with whom. If they think that they have you trapped in your monster mortgage, they will offer you the highest rate that they can – likely only 0.5% or less lower than you’d have to qualify for with the competition.

Or, they’ll offer to ‘help you out’ by having you ‘blend and extend’ at a slightly higher rate, by tacking another 5 (or ten!) years of payments onto the end of your existing mortgage.

Why make a deal to buy a cow, if you can milk it steadily for 30+ years?

#22 For those about to flop... on 01.02.18 at 6:59 pm

Hey LS ,two things.

I forgot to thank you for your message on New Years Eve for my efforts last year in trying to show as much as possible what is really happening in Vancouver real estate.

Secondly the house you showed me last night reminded me of this place which is nearby.

Maybe you have walked past it?

Just got a 100k reduction on the assessment.

Back asking 3.88 after trying to rope-a-dope in at 3.48

Hard to see this one going for north of 3.5 in the current environment which is still deteriorating.

There is still a lot of money in this town,but as I have been stating for about a year buyers can at least challenge the seller for the first time in a long time.

I only worked on two houses last year, the first one valued at a paltry 8 million and the second was a slight upgrade at 18 million.

People on the blog have tried to impress me with their net worth ,but after you work for a guy like Paul Allen then it’s gonna take a little more than a little more than someone making 500k on a house to impress me.

I am happy for the people that have cashed in and in part with my work I have helped many people in Vancouver do this over the last 15 years.

I will continue to show heavy hitters ,but when given the chance I will spend as much time in the 750k to 2 million price range as I think it serves the greatest number of people on this blog.

If I can help 30 people out ,that is 29 more than intended…

M43AZ

2316 w 21st ave ,Vancouver.

Paid 3.53 November 2016 Ass3.57

Was Asking 3.48
Now asking 3.88

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2316-w-21st-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwME1NQg==

#23 Jungle on 01.02.18 at 7:04 pm

Actually oil sands is being discounted badly right now compared to light sweet crude, Alberta can’t get oil out fast enough. We are losing billions because price should be about $10 barrel higher.

That’s why most oil stocks down last year

#24 TurnerNation on 01.02.18 at 7:06 pm

And Instant Inflation. (On top of the 10-20% yearly hikes we seen on essentials.): Most downtown Toronto lunch eateries today had price increases in effect. Like a buck a meal or more. One said all items are .45-75c higher.
Anyone notice this around?

Wait till next year for the next min. wage hike.
And carbon tax nonsense.

Kanada is done, stick a fork in it. Perhaps I’ll become a Snowbird in retirement. As long as TFSA remains intact.

M42ON

#25 TurnerNation on 01.02.18 at 7:09 pm

^ instant price hikes due to new Ontariowe min wage today. And rising.

#26 JSS on 01.02.18 at 7:18 pm

If prime rate goes up and mortgage rate goes up as well, will we one day see higher interest rates on our savings accounts? GIC rates?

#27 Cloudy on 01.02.18 at 7:35 pm

As they say “The proof of the pudding is in the eating.” If the economy is as strong as T2 and Billy claim then 3 or 4 hikes. Otherwise they’re full of hot air as usual. With the stupid amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus, I don’t know how things couldn’t be flying along.

#28 Andrew Woburn on 01.02.18 at 7:36 pm

It isn’t only old white-guy bankers who question the inevitability of the blockchain.

“Ten years in, nobody has come up with a use for blockchain”

https://hackernoon.com/ten-years-in-nobody-has-come-up-with-a-use-case-for-blockchain-ee98c180100?mc_cid=4f6232a7e8&mc_eid=7e15084088

#29 dakkie on 01.02.18 at 7:37 pm

Government prepares for busy year of asset seizure in Alberta

http://investmentwatchblog.com/government-prepares-for-busy-year-of-asset-seizure-in-alberta/

#30 akashic record on 01.02.18 at 7:42 pm

Good to see you so upbeat. As if we lived in a different country overnight.

#31 Andrew Woburn on 01.02.18 at 7:49 pm

“As the lava lamps bubble and swirl, a video camera on the ceiling monitors their unpredictable changes and connects the footage to a computer, which converts the randomness into a virtually unhackable code.”

Probably a stoner’s dream, too. You gotta love tech.

https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/encryption-lava-lamps?mc_cid=4f6232a7e8&mc_eid=7e15084088

#32 Howard on 01.02.18 at 7:50 pm

#23 Jungle on 01.02.18 at 7:04 pm
Actually oil sands is being discounted badly right now compared to light sweet crude, Alberta can’t get oil out fast enough. We are losing billions because price should be about $10 barrel higher.

That’s why most oil stocks down last year

————————————————

Precisely.

The lack of transport routes out of Alberta and Saskatchewan means that any type of bottleneck, as occurred recently with damage to the existing Keystone pipeline, means the oil quite simply cannot get out and Canadian producers are forced into deep discounts in order to clear through the distribution channels more quickly. Hence Canadian oil companies haven’t benefited an iota from the price increase whereas US and overseas producers are raking it in. The new refinery in Alberta will help the situation a bit, but not much.

If BC succeeds in blocking Northern Gateway, it will hand Jason Kenney the Alberta premiership on a silver platter. Just watch the national unity sparks fly were that to occur.

#33 Howard on 01.02.18 at 7:54 pm

Don’t look now, but gold has caught a bit of a seasonal wave. I’m comfortable having some G and IMG in my portfolio.

#34 Andrew Woburn on 01.02.18 at 7:56 pm

Two of our favourite topics in one article … the TrumpDog

“A mall in China is ringing in the year of the dog with a Trump-inspired dog statue”

https://qz.com/1166112/for-chinese-new-year-a-mall-erects-a-trump-dog-statue-to-celebrate-year-of-the-dog/?mc_cid=93cc35f1b5&mc_eid=7e15084088

#35 For those about to flop.. on 01.02.18 at 7:59 pm

Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed.

Let’s see if I can find a realtor with a conscience to anonymously help me out in 2018 to report at a faster pace.

Had a bit of help early last year but when it became apparent that all was not well in Vancouver real estate the amount of realtors willing to help disappeared.

By now you know that I’m going to follow up and finish the reports,no matter how long they take to update and so you might as well give back to the blog since you are on here and stop pretending to care.

Unfortunately for Garth Turner,he had to read all my posts so he actually gets to read the replies before I do.

Old Ron the Realtor embarrassed himself on here last year by ignoring me and then telling Garth he will help him out with any information he needs in 5 minutes.

You guys only care when someone you are trying to impress is watching?

What does it matter if a bum from Tasmania supplies the address or the boss of this blog?People on this blog are inquisitive and wish to be on the front side of a trend.

Let’s get back to business.

This house sold in Burnaby in early December and was asking less than purchased for.

So this is the two million dollar question…

What did it go for…

M43AZ

6020 Malvern Ave ,Burnaby

Paid 2m May 2016

Asking 1.99

Sold on December 2nd

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/6020-malvern-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzWDFNWQ==

#36 Long-Time Lurker on 01.02.18 at 8:04 pm

…looking at yesterday’s post by Garth and the comments section: No good deed goes unpunished in The Greater Fool comments section.

…looking at today’s post and comments: same result.

Happy New Year, Garth!

#37 akashic record on 01.02.18 at 8:10 pm

#28 Andrew Woburn on 01.02.18 at 7:36 pm

It isn’t only old white-guy bankers who question the inevitability of the blockchain.

“Ten years in, nobody has come up with a use for blockchain”

https://hackernoon.com/ten-years-in-nobody-has-come-up-with-a-use-case-for-blockchain-ee98c180100?mc_cid=4f6232a7e8&mc_eid=7e15084088

—-

You prefer some no-name outsider who writes about things in a no-name blog to a guy who made a fortune on tech and puts his money where his mouth is?

Bitcoin Soars Above $15,000 After WSJ Reports Peter Thiel Makes “Monster Bet”

https://www.zerohedge.com/node/610178

#38 AGuyInVancouver on 01.02.18 at 8:10 pm

#32 Howard on 01.02.18 at 7:50 pm
#23 Jungle on 01.02.18 at 7:04 pm
Actually oil sands is being discounted badly right now compared to light sweet crude, Alberta can’t get oil out fast enough. We are losing billions because price should be about $10 barrel higher.

That’s why most oil stocks down last year

————————————————

Precisely.

The lack of transport routes out of Alberta and Saskatchewan means that any type of bottleneck, as occurred recently with damage to the existing Keystone pipeline, means the oil quite simply cannot get out and Canadian producers are forced into deep discounts in order to clear through the distribution channels more quickly. Hence Canadian oil companies haven’t benefited an iota from the price increase whereas US and overseas producers are raking it in. The new refinery in Alberta will help the situation a bit, but not much.

If BC succeeds in blocking Northern Gateway, it will hand Jason Kenney the Alberta premiership on a silver platter. Just watch the national unity sparks fly were that to occur.
_ _ _
Northern Gateway has already been killed by the Feds. Were you thinking of the expansion of the TransMountain pipeline?

#39 Blacksheep on 01.02.18 at 8:11 pm

Just checked my house assessment.

Up another 28 % this year, on top of 39 % last year.

This just keeps getting better : )

You must love property tax. – Garth

#40 Blacksheep on 01.02.18 at 8:15 pm

Total value of housing in BC is claimed @ 1.8 trillion.

With a 12% increase, year over year.

Just say’in.

#41 dr. talc on 01.02.18 at 8:20 pm

b20 is just a basic fraud:
jeremy rudin protects the ‘stability’ of bank profits,
at the expense of millions of renewing mortgagors who previously could ‘rate shop’

it is a bankers’ harvest

jeremy rudin is the banks ’employee of the month’
every month

but he really deserves a lifetime achievement award for the b20 scam

#42 InvestorsFriend on 01.02.18 at 8:21 pm

FINALLY A LOW MORTGAGE RATE For Ten Years:

“[BMO] is offering a decade-long commitment at about 3.5% – just a quarter point over the current fiver. So rates need only increase by about .6% for a borrower to do better by going super long.

But there are some disadvantages. Borrowers can’t get out of the loan for five years unless they sell the property.

*************************************
Well hurrah! For many years some of us asked exactly why U.S. banks can offer locked-in low rate mortgages for 30 years – that are actually completely open for repayment at the option of the borrower for a modest fee and no enormous interest rate differential.

Some said ’twas the Bank Act that prevented this offer in Canada. Not so, it is the Bank Act that forces the mortgage to be open for repayment after five years (as is this BMO offer). But in America the borrower is locked in for 30 years if she wants but can repay ANY time.

The real reason was perhaps lack of competition among banks and/or lack of cooperation by CMHC regarding securitisation rules. Ultra long locked but open mortgages require the repayment risk to be passed on to investors through securitization. Or maybe, as sometimes claimed the investors in Canada would not buy the securitised mortgages locked for 10 much less 30 years and yet open for repayment at the option of the borrower. Strange claim as the product was never offered to Canadian investors.

Garth mentioned the downside of can’t get out of the loan before five years unless the house is sold. What downside? that always applied to 5 year mortgages in Canada, can’t get out before five years unless you transfer the mortgage to the new digs or pay a massive interest rate differential that always seems to favor the bank no matter which way rates moved. 3 months interest was minimum penalty but usually IRD was higher.

This BMO 10 year locked at 3.5% is HUGE. This could totally save a lot of borrowers who simply cannot afford to chance higher rates even five years out.

Kudos to BMO. How are they doing this? taking the risk themselves or securitization?

A quarter point more for 5 years is a lot I guess, but you get the option, but not the obligation to stay at 3.5% for the second five years. That could be a huge saving. Who knows.

In the past I believe banks were charging FAR higher to go ten years. Think 2% extra or even more not 0.25%.

#43 the Jaguar on 01.02.18 at 8:22 pm

“oil. It finally reached 60 bucks, and the black stuff is our biggest export. ”

Precisely. And what little respect this commodity and the province that has brought home the oil bacon has received lately from the rest of Canada. Ungrateful, resentful lumpen. Where the current ‘dust up’ in Iran will head is anyone’s guess, but 60% of the population is restless and under 30. Those Persians will exceed all expectations when they are finally cut loose. Meanwhile, back at the Alberta Ranch and despite the back stabbing ways of jealous monsters like Brad Wall, the province is set to lead the country in growth. Imagine. One leg tied behind our back and still crossing the finish line first.
Work ethic, determination, young educated work force, and the lessons of generations before them.
Give me warp speed, Mr. Sulu.

#44 nobody special on 01.02.18 at 8:27 pm

Going house shopping !
So 50% of people aren’t going to be allowed to renew their mortgages, so the banks will reposes half of the nations housing stock and be forced to sell it off. But only to people who don’t need a mortgage, and they aren’t allowed to sell to those damn foreigners.

Sounds like a good time to snap up those bargain $100K West Vancouver housing bargains ;)

#45 Technical analysis? on 01.02.18 at 8:41 pm

I would take the 10 year rate hands down. The gnomes at rates are clueless.

#46 Lost...but not leased on 01.02.18 at 8:50 pm

IMHO..

I base my investments on Zombie movies..

Yes, alL GF posters realize that Feds will attempt to bore us with Juno awards ..pay to play “O of C” ……Toronto sports teams irrational potential….etc..

butt moi’s track record..err Cd/ DVD/Jagmeet/Turdeaus /Moroneau’s moment is __________________….

#47 Old Ron the Realtor on 01.02.18 at 9:14 pm

Hey Garth : Oil does not sell for $60 USD a Barrel. That is the WTI price.

WESTERN CANADA SELECT sold for $35.17 USD a Barrel today.

The cheapest oil in the world. WHY ? Because we can’t agree to let a pipeline cross our provinces to get to a salt water port, east or west. So we are stuck with one customer, the USA, and they tell us what we will sell for.

BTW Both the Liberals and the Conservatives have failed for years to get a pipe to the Pacific or the Atlantic.

#48 Al on 01.02.18 at 9:18 pm

If you can handle the swings, never lock in. Rate spy comment exemplifies this nicely. Its not different for shorter terms in aggregate. There’s always a premium baked in for less risk. If you think you’re smarter than the banks this time, lock in. You vs armies of full time professional specialists at the banks. GL!

#49 Zapstrap on 01.02.18 at 9:27 pm

I pulled a young moose out of a mud hole like that once. Was hopelessly mired but when set free ran off to his mom who was just standing there and seemed to know we were there to help. Just glad it wasn’t a grizzly cub.

#50 Benny on 01.02.18 at 9:33 pm

Poloz should have raised rates in Dec. Higher rates will sink cdn artificial economy which is yugely dependant on uneducated people installing kitchen sinks and toilets and showers not to mention people taking out HELOCs to buy iPhones and clothing and cars and Google Home things (whatever those bs speaker personal assistants are).

Canadians don’t make anything eh.

#51 Old Ron the Realtor on 01.02.18 at 9:35 pm

@ FOR THOSE WHO ARE ABOUT TO FLOP:

Thanks for the shout out, but I didn’t embarrassment myself. Haven’t done that since college. I simply said that Realtors would quickly change to the new rules and gladly share any and all information available. They are doing just that. If you don’t want to use an agent to get the info, there are a few companies that are mining the TREB data and putting it on line.

The notion that you could get 48,000 agents to agree to conspire on anything is laughable. Try herding cats, much easier. ——– Anyhow have a Happy and Prosperous New Year Floppy.

#52 The Bolshevick on 01.02.18 at 9:39 pm

Stop whining you capitalist !

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/small-business/sb-money/small-business-owners-brace-for-impact-as-ontario-minimum-wage-hike-takes-effect/article37465747/

#53 Newcomer on 01.02.18 at 9:55 pm

#37 akashic record on 01.02.18 at 8:10 pm
——

Did you just rib somebody about their sources while citing zerohedge?

#54 BrokerChannel on 01.02.18 at 10:00 pm

On Twitter today…

RateSpy:

“Hail to the broker-channel credit unions who still qualify low-ratio applicants at (reasonable) contract rates. You are now indispensable to us.”

John Greenlee AMP:

“None of the credit unions in my area are doing this. Unfortunately.“

Greg Soucie, Centum broker:

“I’ll be interested to see who is and isn’t going to stick with it. Alterna is out, which is unfortunate.”

#55 For those about to flop... on 01.02.18 at 10:08 pm

02.18 at 9:35 pm
@ FOR THOSE WHO ARE ABOUT TO FLOP:

Thanks for the shout out, but I didn’t embarrassment myself. Haven’t done that since college. I simply said that Realtors would quickly change to the new rules and gladly share any and all information available. They are doing just that. If you don’t want to use an agent to get the info, there are a few companies that are mining the TREB data and putting it on line.

The notion that you could get 48,000 agents to agree to conspire on anything is laughable. Try herding cats, much easier. ——– Anyhow have a Happy and Prosperous New Year Floppy.

///////////////////////

Hey Ron,I embarrass myself on here daily for the greater good.

Should try it some time,very liberating.

I will keep putting up addresses and if you ever change your mind and want to help a few people out you know where to find me.

I get it,you guys are looking after your livelihoods.
When people say I am cheering on a housing crash, well,that’s just ridiculous because I will be out of a job too.

These houses are not going to report themselves and the media here won’t touch it ,and so you end up with a construction worker with poor writing skills filling in some of the missing information.

If people want to go and buy real estate,then by all means go ahead.In Vancouver it was all one way traffic for 15 years with the exception of a brief period of panic in 2009.

Things have changed and I decided I’m not going to sit in silence and watch people on this blog get burned.

At least if they buy they will at least be a little more informed due to my efforts.

I appreciate your well wishes and the same to you.

You could always come up with a new handle and help me out but that’s entirely up to you.

The truth,people want the truth…

M43AZ

#56 Smoking Man on 01.02.18 at 10:12 pm

Canadian debt is a ticking time bomb.

Globalist going out of their way to prop up Canada. Economy that is fueled by personal and govt dept.

Now is the time for the big short. Look at those listings explode.

Ps loved Trumps Big Red Button moment . Obviously got it from my book.

#57 Bezengy on 01.02.18 at 10:15 pm

I need an expert opinion. Who can tell me how much money not having the ability to ship our oil to tidewater costs us. If our production is 5 million bpd, multiplied by 365 days a year, multiplied by $25 per barrel, are we actually losing 45 billion per year?

#58 cramar on 01.02.18 at 10:16 pm

“Hey Rocket Man, my button is bigger than your button!”
– a 10-yr-old in the White House

#59 Lost...but not leased on 01.02.18 at 10:22 pm

WHEW…

That was 2 blog posts without dog reference photos…till today.

Concerned Garth was going “Cujo”…..

#60 I’m stupid on 01.02.18 at 10:55 pm

#44 rental property math

Your logic is very flawed. Why would anyone buy weed from any of these producers when they can just grow a plant themselves?

Remember that marijuana is a plant and it’s easy to grow. No one seems to be recognizing marijuana culture or the fact a plant can yield between 1/2 a pound to a pound. It can be grown in your garden during summer and you can freeze it so it stays fresh. Or a lamp and a closet and you can have weed all year.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the price collapses to $100 a pound. Right now everyone is assuming it will stay in $5-7 per gram price, but that won’t last.

#61 ww1 on 01.02.18 at 11:01 pm

61 Lost…but not leased on 01.02.18 at 10:22 pm
WHEW… That was 2 blog posts without dog reference photos…till today. Concerned Garth was going “Cujo”…..

In case you haven’t noticed, Garth routinely changes the “blog photo” on each column at random during the day. You have to check back often – try to keep up.

#62 conan on 01.02.18 at 11:02 pm

I am leaning towards thinking that these upcoming Winter Olympics are not going to happen.

Its getting red hot between Donald and Kim, and they are both sitting at the powder keg table.

Save bet that the USA disrupts any N Korean missile launch going forward.

#63 Skip Breakfast on 01.02.18 at 11:11 pm

Great article with solid wisdom. I might be able to recommend this blog again to my vastly over-indebted sister.

#64 InvestorsFriend on 01.02.18 at 11:13 pm

Sorry, but there is no “Us” in Economics

#59 Bezengy on 01.02.18 at 10:15 pm asked:

I need an expert opinion. Who can tell me how much money not having the ability to ship our oil to tidewater costs us. If our production is 5 million bpd, multiplied by 365 days a year, multiplied by $25 per barrel, are we actually losing 45 billion per year?

**************************************
You make a very good point, SOMEONE(s) in Canada is losing a LOT of money due to lack of pipelines.

But I disagree that it is “our” oil or that “we” are losing the money. Much of the loss is borne by companies and their share owners. To the extent that companies have leases or whatever rights to oil that does not belong to Canadians collectively.

There is some truth that Albertan’s and Saskatchewanians collectively own oil and are losing royalty money.

And to some extent all Canadians collectively suffer due to lower income taxes on lower oil company profits.

Then again all those Canadians who do not own oil company shares may be benefiting from low oil prices. If oil is cheaper in Canada due to lack of pipelines then someone in Canada is buying much of that oil cheaper and that is to some extent getting passed along in lower prices to consumers.

Many will never believe that but gasoline was only around 92 cents a liter in Alberta for much of this Fall.

And Natural gas is incredibly cheap to consumers in Alberta. If LNG exports were in place the price to consumers would be higher.

My point to the board in general here and not to Bezengy in particular is that there is no “We” or “us” in Economics. Canadians do not to any great extent compete collectively. We compete against each other to a good degree. There are winners and losers individually. We don’t very much win or lose collectively. Do we?

#65 For those about to flop... on 01.02.18 at 11:14 pm

Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed.

This house sold 21 days ago.

Paid 1.97 in August 2016

Did they get their number?

Dunno,but I have realtors on here tripping over themselves to help me out so we should know within the hour…

M43AZ

Sold on December 12th.

2355 PANORAMA DR NORTH VANCOUVER paid 1.97

2355 Panorama Drive, North Vancouver

Apr 25:$2,398,000
Nov 7: $2,098,000
Change: – 300000.00 -13%

https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/2355-panorama-drive

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyOFBKNw==

#66 akashic record on 01.03.18 at 12:20 am

#54 Newcomer on 01.02.18 at 9:55 pm

#37 akashic record on 01.02.18 at 8:10 pm
——

Did you just rib somebody about their sources while citing zerohedge?

====

Any day.

In 2017 changes in the world made ZH the mainstream.
You also missed WSJ in the ZH headline.

What hasn’t changed is the the weight of opinion on tech innovation of a blog vs Peter Thiel.

#67 conan on 01.03.18 at 12:23 am

#62 I’m stupid on 01.02.18 at 10:55 pm

These weed stores are popping up all over the place in my city. They are also all very busy. The black market is going to take a hit. It is not a question of competitive pricing, instead everything is going to be about, convenience, choice, and quality of product.

If Netflix can grab a sizable market share in an environment where people can easily learn how to Torrent, then these pot stores are going to sell a ridonkulous amount of MJ. People would rather buy it legally.

#68 Ian on 01.03.18 at 12:59 am

CAD isn’t doing well because everything is so great here. And it’s not because of oil either. It’s because the USD index is getting crushed. Awful, awful graph (UUP) and I think 2017 may have marked the start of a 10 year USD bear like 1985-95.

Also why gold is starting to roll again. And oil.

#69 Smoking Man on 01.03.18 at 1:52 am

It’s really difficult to put sentences together that move people when you’re happy and satisfied.

Disgruntled heathens it’s your turn.

Hence my lack of posts.

I love everyone.

Boaring I know. It’s were I’m at the moment.

#70 Smoking Man on 01.03.18 at 2:15 am

I know where is spelt not like were.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#71 Buford Wilson on 01.03.18 at 3:38 am

A strong nation will have a strong currency Garth.

The loonie will be back as soon as we have have a strong PM again.

#72 Howard on 01.03.18 at 3:55 am

#38 AGuyInVancouver on 01.02.18 at 8:10 pm

Northern Gateway has already been killed by the Feds. Were you thinking of the expansion of the TransMountain pipeline?

———————————

Yes sorry, I mixed up the two names.

The one currently opposed by idiots in Burnaby and Victoria who dump raw, untreated sewage into the ocean.

#73 Howard on 01.03.18 at 4:06 am

#66 InvestorsFriend on 01.02.18 at 11:13 pm

Sorry, but there is no “Us” in Economics

#59 Bezengy on 01.02.18 at 10:15 pm asked:

I need an expert opinion. Who can tell me how much money not having the ability to ship our oil to tidewater costs us. If our production is 5 million bpd, multiplied by 365 days a year, multiplied by $25 per barrel, are we actually losing 45 billion per year?

**************************************
You make a very good point, SOMEONE(s) in Canada is losing a LOT of money due to lack of pipelines.

But I disagree that it is “our” oil or that “we” are losing the money. Much of the loss is borne by companies and their share owners. To the extent that companies have leases or whatever rights to oil that does not belong to Canadians collectively.

There is some truth that Albertan’s and Saskatchewanians collectively own oil and are losing royalty money.

And to some extent all Canadians collectively suffer due to lower income taxes on lower oil company profits.

Then again all those Canadians who do not own oil company shares may be benefiting from low oil prices. If oil is cheaper in Canada due to lack of pipelines then someone in Canada is buying much of that oil cheaper and that is to some extent getting passed along in lower prices to consumers.

Many will never believe that but gasoline was only around 92 cents a liter in Alberta for much of this Fall.

And Natural gas is incredibly cheap to consumers in Alberta. If LNG exports were in place the price to consumers would be higher.

My point to the board in general here and not to Bezengy in particular is that there is no “We” or “us” in Economics. Canadians do not to any great extent compete collectively. We compete against each other to a good degree. There are winners and losers individually. We don’t very much win or lose collectively. Do we?

————————————–

You seem to assume that all of Canada gets its oil from Canadian sources.

Did you miss the entire Energy East debate? Eastern Canada gets its oil primarily from the Saudis and pays full price. Rail is simply inefficient to transport oil from the Western oilsands to the Ontario/Quebec population centres.

In addition, if I recall correctly, the cost of gasoline is only around one-third determined by the price of oil. Other costs relating to refining, etc, comprise the other two thirds. Therefore lower oil cost will only do so much to lower the price at the pump.

However way you look at it, the lack of pipelines is costing Canada dearly, all to satisfy some know-nothings in Montreal and Vancouver.

#74 Howard on 01.03.18 at 4:20 am

#43 the Jaguar on 01.02.18 at 8:22 pm

“oil. It finally reached 60 bucks, and the black stuff is our biggest export. ”

Precisely. And what little respect this commodity and the province that has brought home the oil bacon has received lately from the rest of Canada. Ungrateful, resentful lumpen. Where the current ‘dust up’ in Iran will head is anyone’s guess, but 60% of the population is restless and under 30. Those Persians will exceed all expectations when they are finally cut loose. Meanwhile, back at the Alberta Ranch and despite the back stabbing ways of jealous monsters like Brad Wall, the province is set to lead the country in growth. Imagine. One leg tied behind our back and still crossing the finish line first.
Work ethic, determination, young educated work force, and the lessons of generations before them.
Give me warp speed, Mr. Sulu.

————————————–

Quebec and BC launching economic war against Alberta, and the object of your ire is Brad Wall? He is your ally in this debate.

On Iran : many don’t realize but it is actually the most educated and liberal (yes, liberal) country in the Middle East after Israel and Turkey. I’m speaking of the people, not the stone-age government of course. Pre-1979, Iran was as free as most Western countries in regards to personal liberties if perhaps not democracy. I read just yesterday that police in Tehran are longer arresting women for failing to wear the hijab. A small step in the right direction.

#75 Midnights on 01.03.18 at 5:07 am

Ross Kay makes some great points for those that think real estate will blow up because of B-20…
https://www.howestreet.com/2018/01/02/how-to-use-new-mortgage-rules-to-your-advantage/

#76 Max Factor Fiction on 01.03.18 at 6:21 am

I compared Garth’s rosy forecast with the dog polishers at the Fed*. I am hopeful the Honourable Member for Lunatic Central will address the discrepancies.

The Fed pegs GDP growth at 3% and says “Household consumption has been the main contributor …..”. Consumption they claim (with a straight face) that was propelled by the Child Care Benefit. Does borrowed govt money handed to fecund, but indebted consumers count as growth?

The Services sector also clocked in a 3ish % growth (gleaned from a graph but apparently not worthy of mention in the text). Presumably financial services’ “boffo” profits had a large impact on this result. If household consumption, (CDN for “debt”) created the growth in the Services sector, why can’t we just borrow till our GDP is #1 by a country km?

I believe the answer is found here:
” Rising interest rates are likely to increase debt-service ratios, which will in turn constrain future household spending growth. However, since most borrowers have fixed-rate mortgages that do not need to be renewed over the near term, the economic impacts of higher rates will be felt gradually over time.”

Garth stated that 50% of mortgages will renew next year. If he is correct, then why is he expecting GDP growth when it is mainly due to household (over) spending?

Maybe the growth will come from business?
“After rebounding rapidly during the recovery from the global recession, real business investment shrank over 2015 and 2016.”

The good news is that in 2017 business investment stopped shrinking. Growth was ZERO, but the survey forecast was higher than 0. Did anyone survey Garth’s constituents, who have pledged to follow in Hunter Harrison’s footsteps. Time to rejoice?

“Meanwhile, wage growth is picking up, following softness in 2016.”
2017’s 1.5% gain is way better than 2016’s (.5%) but the lowest since 2009, also 1.5%. Wage growth in 2018 will be awesome, but if it is not due to market forces what does it mean, if anything? Economics has proven that the tail does not wag the beaver. And putting lipstick on castor canadensis is stupid, because it bites.

Rooster’s Resolution #1- stop reading propaganda* written by fools for fools.

*https://www.budget.gc.ca/fes-eea/2017/docs/statement-enonce/chap01-en.html?wbdisable=true

#77 Red Buttons on 01.03.18 at 6:37 am

DELETED

#78 dr. talc on 01.03.18 at 7:11 am

gas prices have been kept low for the past year to soften resistance to the 2017 carbon tax
in 2018 the screws will be turned gradually

people typing here that climate change is real are government shills: it is real but it is ‘manipulated’, it is man made, but the men are not you and me
the same people who legislated eco fees and carbon taxes will soon tax meat, there is vegan agenda

#79 I’m stupid on 01.03.18 at 7:23 am

#70 Conan

You’re absouluty right. But do you think these weed stores are buying their product from the listed weed manufacturers? Like I said the price will be driven down drastically. I can’t imagine the costs to grow weed is more than tomatoes or cucumbers. Once the legality isn’t an issue the price collapses.

#80 dharma bum on 01.03.18 at 8:00 am

“The party’s over. Govern yourself accordingly.” – Garth

——————————————————————–

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-Iznv2gqY4

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.18 at 8:04 am

@#40 Mindless Sheep
“Total value of housing in BC is claimed @ 1.8 trillion.
With a 12% increase, year over year.
Just say’in.”
+++++

Total value of Housing including condos….
BC Assessment states Value of houses dropping, condos rising…..
The beginning of the end….
Just sayin’

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.18 at 8:10 am

@#44 Rental Property Crackhouse
“HMMJ. Marijuana ETF…..”
+++++

I cant wait to see the sycophantic Trudeau cheeleaders when Trump uses US Customs at the border as a NAFTA negotiating tactic.

“Ever smoked Marijuana sir?”

Denied entry.

July 1st.

#83 maxx on 01.03.18 at 8:17 am

#7 david on 01.02.18 at 6:16 pm

“…..in one of Ottawa’s fastest growing and healthiest suburbs (healthy meaning very very liquid, very reasonably priced, and a rental component to boot). Here’s my prediction: the townhome and modest priced SFH segments are seeing super huge demand and will escalate, in part because the stress tests (insured and uninsured) and higher rates will ultimately limit a $100K first time buyer to a max $400 to $450K mortgage. simple math and predictable. A SFH that sold for $385K (yes, minto and mattamy sell such things at those prices 25min from parliament hill) last year has gone to $440, and townhomes gone to high $300s. GTA and Van may be pooched, but many other cities and their burbs will be virtually unaffected by said stress tests. its good to be modest. let the price escalation of modest homes begin..”

Don’t mean to burst your bubble (and that of breathless, panting realtards shilling the YOW re market) but Ottawa is not job rich. Not by a long shot. Gubbmint, and a handful of support industries. There are always coffee shops…….

Also, imho, anything outside of the parliamentary precinct (especially at 25 minutes from downtown) and some parts of the core sees some of the ugliest development on the planet. Soulless, pressed cornflakes chicken runs, pockmarked with old, decrepit strip malls stretching endlessly. And don’t get me started on the traffic…..a town the size of Ottawa has insane traffic.

Sorry.

#84 Steven Rowlandson on 01.03.18 at 8:30 am

“The dollar hit a glorious, brief 80 cents as the first trading day of the shiny new year dawned.”

What value is being measured? 80% of a unit of debt called a US Dollar which now is a negative value by virtue of its backing being debt and not the equity of gold or silver. Debts are not worth much if there is no ability or will to honestly pay them. When was the last time the US government paid down their debt? The value of currencies is a bluff supported by market forces based on deception and misplaced confidence.
The crypto currency mania is just the latest and most spectacular example of this foolishness. 14 to 15 thousand US for an encrypted line of code? This is insanity and it will end badly!

#85 Gravy Train on 01.03.18 at 8:37 am

#72 Smoking Man on 01.03.18 at 1:52 am
“It’s really difficult to put sentences together that move people when you’re happy and satisfied…. Hence my lack of posts…. Boaring I know. It’s w[h]ere I’m at, [at] the moment.”

I love your endless series of newly minted portmanteaus (such as boaring from boar and boring). I can actually picture you as a boring boar, but perhaps the collocation of booring (from boor and boring) might be more apropos in your case.

#86 maxx on 01.03.18 at 8:55 am

#8 The Boulder on 01.02.18 at 6:17 pm

“Economy doing good, rate will go up, price will come down. Economy doing bad, rate will come down and price will go up.
The equation looks incomplete, house prices should go up and down with economy.”

Diddling with rates has been the quintessential central bank “tool” and proof positive that the game is rigged.

Problem is, this has only proven to mess up economies big-time as well as force them into what appears to be a long-term, sideways motion….but it’s not sideways, it’s an ever-downward slide, with debt load in every single corner.

#87 Alex on 01.03.18 at 9:15 am

The loonie jumped 7% during 2017

Not a big deal as it was 1.35 USDCAD and even with this “big” jump it still quite FAR away from historical 1.20

Regarding 50% mortgages to renewal, NOT refinancing, most of their owner have enough equity and either will stay with their lender or do refinance with another one as they have at least possibility to extend amortization – each 5y eliminate 20% in rates, effectively nullification of the stress-test….
The first time buyers, not the existing one those who will have issues. However only 6% of them will be unable to do a purchase.

Study what B20 means. You have no idea. – Garth

#88 Red Buttons on 01.03.18 at 9:18 am

Over breakfast this morning, President Trump offered to send 100 megatons of Cheerios to the starving North Koreans.

#89 For those about to flop... on 01.03.18 at 9:29 am

Recent Sale Report.

This one is so fresh the ink is still drying.

3655 Dunbar st,Vancouver.

Originally asking 3.88 then 3.68 then 3.38 then 3.28 then 3.23

Just sold for 2.85

And so another one that is as good as an example that you can ask what you want, but when there isn’t as much demand its kind of irrelevant.

Went for roughly a million less or 26.5% than original ask.

So someone paid 2.85 for the privilege of living on a main artery but at least they got a newer product and not a bulldozer…

M43AZ

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3655-dunbar-street

#90 dosouth on 01.03.18 at 9:37 am

Jobs report will be a dead cat bump due to Xmas and this may very well be a reason for Poloz to make a rate increase…..but not a reason to say the economy is smoking along (just to make $$ for the big 5)

#91 LivinLarge on 01.03.18 at 9:43 am

“Canadian debt is a ticking time bomb.” True enough but it has been ticking for over 100 years and still no apocalypse yet. A couple of years of hurt, fear and loathing every decade or so but then off to the races again.

#92 David Pylyp on 01.03.18 at 9:55 am

What will happen with mortgage stress test renewals?
a) Banks will pad renewals with an extra half point.
b) Smart borrowers will look at Credit Unions.

Shop around with an independent mortgage broker
http://RenewYourMortgage.com

#93 For those about to flop... on 01.03.18 at 9:56 am

Here’s one for all the Bitheads.

Gotta click on the link for the full experience…

M43AZ

“Bitcoin’s Stunning Rise Far Outperformed the Best Stocks in 2017

The market correction in late December notwithstanding, 2017 was the year of bitcoin. The cryptocurrency made headlines both for its eyepopping returns and its highly speculative nature. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase, famously said bitcoin was a “fraud,” and that people who buy it are “stupid.” Regardless of what you think about it, bitcoin’s inexorable rise got us wondering how it compares against the fastest growing publicly traded companies. So we ran the numbers and created a new graph to find out.

To get our numbers, we simply searched Google Finance for the top companies in terms of percentage growth year-to-date. We ranked each company (or cryptocurrency) from highest to lowest, placing each logo on a straightforward bar chart. This lets you see how the prices of different stocks behaved throughout the year, putting them on an even playing field with Bitcoin. This lets you easily see how Bitcoin’s performance stacks up against other high-growth companies.
As you can clearly see, Bitcoin investors by far saw the most growth in 2017, totaling an amazing 1,324%. That’s insane by any measure, especially when you compare it against other high-growth stocks. The second-highest performing stock was Madrigal Pharmaceuticals at an impressive 475%, but that’s only about a third as much as the rise of Bitcoin. Never heard of Madrigal? It’s a low-key drug company that recently discovered a promising treatment for liver disease. That’s right: Madrigal might have cured liver disease—which afflicts almost 4 million people—and the company didn’t even match half of Bitcoin’s rise in value.

The other company on our list boasting more than 401% growth is Straight Path Communications, which specializes in millimeter bandwidth licenses for 5G networks. 5G represents the next level of mobile network connectivity—imagine streaming Netflix directly on your phone, outside of WiFi coverage, with minimal lag. The Pew Research Center estimates that roughly 3 out of 4 Americans have a smartphone, a trend which is probably only going to increase. It makes a lot of sense that a company like Straight Path would skyrocket in value.

Things start to get crowded further down the list. Weight Watchers had a great year, posting 300% growth, followed by Exact Science (292%) and Scientific Games (266%). In fact, there are actually a lot of technology companies among the top-performers from 2017. Square (151%) and Shopify (136%) are obvious standouts, but take another look at Alibaba at 95% growth. Alibaba is a massive e-commerce and retail conglomerate in Asia. Think of it as the Amazon of China, only better. Alibaba was already a huge company, and now its market cap sits at $470B. For the sake of comparison, Bitcoin’s market cap is only $253B. No other company comes anywhere close to Alibaba.

No matter how you slice it, the rapid rise of Bitcoin blew away the competition in 2017. There’s no telling where the currency will be at the end of 2018, much less any of the other companies on our list. That being said, we will let you decide whether or not to invest in cryptocurrency.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/stocks-prices-2017-bitcoin

#94 Asterix1 on 01.03.18 at 9:58 am

Was looking at some Richmond Hill stats on Zolo! Ouch! Single detached homes are getting massacred there.

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-hill-real-estate/trends

MEDIAN PRICE
April 14th = 1,700,000$
December 28th = 1,129,000$

That’s a -33.5% drop in a couple of months. Prices are still too high in my opinion, its Richmond Hill for crying out loud, nothing special and far from downtown.

Homes lost 35,000$ in the last week alone! Who needs B20? The crash is already happening.

#95 Penny Henny on 01.03.18 at 10:11 am

#37 akashic record on 01.02.18 at 8:10 pm
#28 Andrew Woburn on 01.02.18 at 7:36 pm

Bitcoin Soars Above $15,000 After WSJ Reports Peter Thiel Makes “Monster Bet”

https://www.zerohedge.com/node/610178

———————————-

If I had billions it would only make sense to throw $20 million in bitcoin. Cheap insurance to make sure I would be able to live the rest of my life in the lap of luxury. I would also buy the same amount in gold.

#96 Adam on 01.03.18 at 10:39 am

#13 Kelsey on 01.02.18 at 6:23 pm

“but let’s put the blame for wealth inequality squarely where it belongs”

———

Figuring out who to blame isn’t nearly as important as figuring out how to fix the problem.

#97 ANON on 01.03.18 at 10:40 am

Maybe it’s different this time. The technology is in the early stages, but it’s promising:
Freezing Bubbles .
Now there’s only the challenge to keep if frozen in spring.

#98 rainclouds on 01.03.18 at 10:59 am

Too bad harv is retired. Was a tenacious journalist, sadly lacking these days

Rips little potato a new one, enjoy

http://harveyoberfeld.ca/blog/

#99 LS in Arbutus on 01.03.18 at 11:05 am

FLOP!

RE 2316 w 21st ave ,Vancouver, drive by it, just up the street.

Paid 3.53 November 2016 Ass3.57
Was Asking 3.48
Now asking 3.88

Since 2017 assessed is $3.57, in the summer it would have sold for at least $200k less than that. So let’s say $3.3 million. And looking at the fact the market is, as Garth says, slowly melting, where will it stop?

#Hutchyman has a spectacular post today of a brand new house in Dunbar (albeit on Dunbar street) that sold for $2.9 million. (Assessed at $2.9 but it was under construction.) That’s crazy!? What’s the costs per square foot to build? Approx?

Personally, there is so much evidence of a decaying market that with a little tiny bit of looking you can now see it for yourself.

Guy I work with bought a SFH in 2016 out in Burnaby. Paid, I am guessing, $1.5-ish. Heard him on the phone yesterday asking for his property assessment for his condo. That’s right, not only did he buy a SFH the height of the market, he double downed!? He kept his condo. But guess the condo’s gone up 20% while his SFH’s (on paper) gone down 10%. And I know a couple of guys at work like this. I know many more (who based on what we do should know better) but they think that Vancouver’s special and/or this is the new normal. So lots of speculation like this. But while I already thought this guy was screwed, now I think he’s even MORE screwed. Has two kids under 5.

I do think foreign money also had a huge influence, and that this has affected prices a lot. But is is also built on debt. Either borrowed here or from China and god knows they are in their own massive bubble. Kind of like how LA and Hawaii property markets were massively influenced by Japan and its own bubble and then also felt the effects of that deflating (Japan still deflating 30 years later) mess. So yeah, the fact that foreign money is influencing this market is NOT a good thing. It shouldn’t make you feel better about the situation.

So… I have a small file myself of a few houses that de-listed/sold last summer from here in the ‘hood. If i look them up now, most sold for $200k less than their assessed value.

That is, 2017 assessed values are $200k higher than the price they sold for in the summer.

I’ll post a few examples later.

Keep up the good work and now I am feeling sorry for people around me. (Like the poor guy at work.)

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2316-w-21st-avenue

#100 Smoking Man on 01.03.18 at 11:07 am

Sun Tuz the art of war.

“Know your enemy”

California no accident.

#101 Mattl on 01.03.18 at 11:07 am

Asterix1- please read up and understand sales mix if you are going to comment on RE prices. That 35% is being driven by lack of sales of 2br detached, for sfh’s anyways. 3bdr’s , of which this is a decent sample size, are down 13%. Condo’s are actually up double digits. Not exactly the bloodbath your post indicates.

#102 Howard on 01.03.18 at 11:17 am

#86 maxx on 01.03.18 at 8:17 am

Don’t mean to burst your bubble (and that of breathless, panting realtards shilling the YOW re market) but Ottawa is not job rich. Not by a long shot. Gubbmint, and a handful of support industries. There are always coffee shops…….

—————————————-

Tech hub in Kanata?

#103 april on 01.03.18 at 11:28 am

#78 – From what I hear be careful listening to Ross Kay. Although he’s no longer a realtor he does make money from his members buying real estate.He did say that condos would be impacted more by B20 than sfh.

#104 Ronaldo on 01.03.18 at 11:41 am

#87 Steven Rowlandson on 01.03.18 at 8:30 am

“The dollar hit a glorious, brief 80 cents as the first trading day of the shiny new year dawned.”

What value is being measured? 80% of a unit of debt called a US Dollar which now is a negative value by virtue of its backing being debt and not the equity of gold or silver. Debts are not worth much if there is no ability or will to honestly pay them. When was the last time the US government paid down their debt? The value of currencies is a bluff supported by market forces based on deception and misplaced confidence.
The crypto currency mania is just the latest and most spectacular example of this foolishness. 14 to 15 thousand US for an encrypted line of code? This is insanity and it will end badly!
———————————————————–
Couldn’t agree with you more.

#105 Deplorable Reefer Farmers on 01.03.18 at 11:51 am

#103 Smoking Man on 01.03.18 at 11:07 am

Sun Tuz the art of war.

“Know your enemy”

California no accident.

..

You working for Tyson?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2018/01/03/mike-tyson-breaks-ground-on-40-acre-marijuana-ranch-in-california/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-national%3Ahomepage%2Fcard&utm_term=.534242c46f35

#106 aa5 on 01.03.18 at 11:52 am

We are a long way from this point.. but when the blame game comes:

If it wasn’t for those online hater bears who sowed doubt among the populace, the prices would have kept going up exponentially.

#107 NYCer on 01.03.18 at 12:00 pm

Will be interesting to see how rates rise and the impact on the Canadian economy. I truly imagine many will be hurt. The insane spending never ends. Scary to wonder how people are paying for this.

I am very thankful me and my husband decided to just pay down the house ASAP while adding a bit to retirement.

We will be mortgage free by May 2020 and never having to renew a mortgage. Seeing all that interest saved from a 30-yr mortgage down to a 5-yr mortgage makes us so happy.

#108 Ronaldo on 01.03.18 at 12:03 pm

#92 For those about to flop… on 01.03.18 at 9:29 am

Recent Sale Report.

This one is so fresh the ink is still drying.

3655 Dunbar st,Vancouver.

Originally asking 3.88 then 3.68 then 3.38 then 3.28 then 3.23

Just sold for 2.85

And so another one that is as good as an example that you can ask what you want, but when there isn’t as much demand its kind of irrelevant.

Went for roughly a million less or 26.5% than original ask.

So someone paid 2.85 for the privilege of living on a main artery but at least they got a newer product and not a bulldozer…

M43AZ
————————————————————
Flop, they paid 1.425 in June/15 and did a teardown and rebuilt. The difference between what he paid and what he sold for was double what he paid originally. I suspect that he still probably walked away with a half million assuming the place cost a million or so to build which I doubt. Maybe Crowded could comment on this. Not sure what building costs would be but this thing is only 861 s.f. on the main so I doubt that it cost even a million to build. I think he made out like a bandit. I know of a few like this one built by speckers in the Mt. Pleasant area where they made out like bandits. Huge profits. These guys are able to take huge drops from assessment value and still do quite well. It’s those people that bought at these major inflated prices that are going to get hit the hardest. The guy will be wishing he had sold a year ago. We will see a whole lot more like these in the near term. The speckers brought the prices up and they will bring them down.

#109 For those about to flop... on 01.03.18 at 12:16 pm

It is snowing in Northern Florida for the first time in 28 years.

Tallahassee to be precise.

No snow in Phoenix,just a guy doing Pink Snow Reports…

M43AZ

#110 Doug in London on 01.03.18 at 12:17 pm

So interest rates are going up, bit by bit, as the year goes on. Who would have thought, when a lot of “experts” here said rates will NEVER go up? I’ll just patiently relax, put my feet up and watch the value of those preferred share ETFs go up. It’s been worth the wait, considering the generous dividends they’ve paid out over the last 4 or 5 years when they’ve been on sale.

#111 Stan Brooks on 01.03.18 at 1:15 pm

Liberals working for the Canadians.

The results (the progress under the liberal uber rich elitists, sigh):

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tim-hortons-heirs-cut-paid-165921082.html

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/minimum-wage-hikes-could-cost-100000785.html

#112 Stan Brooks on 01.03.18 at 1:21 pm

Study what B20 means. You have no idea. – Garth

***************

Bill B20, C27, ….
Who cares, the ships has sailed and this frozen land is toast.
I would not be surprised if bitcoins proves more resilient than the canadian economy.

Take your money out while you can.

#113 SimplyPut7 on 01.03.18 at 1:27 pm

The minimum wage increases in Ontario are already hurting the people they are supposed to be helping:

https://i.cbc.ca/1.4470470.1514994633!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_620/letter-cutting-paid-breaks.jpg

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tim-horton-s-tims-timmies-doubledouble-minimum-wage-ontario-kathleen-wynne-labour-1.4470215?cmp=rss

#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.03.18 at 1:31 pm

#108 Deplorable Reefer Farmers on 01.03.18 at 11:51 am
#103 Smoking Man on 01.03.18 at 11:07 am

Sun Tuz the art of war.

“Know your enemy”

California no accident.

..

You working for Tyson?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2018/01/03/mike-tyson-breaks-ground-on-40-acre-marijuana-ranch-in-california/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-national%3Ahomepage%2Fcard&utm_term=.534242c46f35
————
Better work hard or he’ll chew your ear off.

#115 Tony on 01.03.18 at 1:55 pm

What I see is Trump trying to kill off the U.S. dollar to prevent an all-out stock market crash so therein lies the wildcard. The world economies continue to deteriorate with each passing year so odds are Trump and the FED are bluffing and interest rates have already topped out in America and in Canada. Is this the year the bankers “lose” the gold market remains one of the major questions? Trump can try everything short of helicopter money and deflation will still run rampant. All these clowns talking about hyperinflation told us the same thing seven years ago.

Global growth five years ago was zero. Last year it was 3%. This year it’s forecast to be 4%. There is no deflation. – Garth

#116 conan on 01.03.18 at 2:13 pm

#116 SimplyPut7 on 01.03.18 at 1:27 pm

I think this will totally back fire on them. Could be the worst PR blunder in a long time.

#117 45north on 01.03.18 at 2:51 pm

Smoking Man: Canadian debt is a ticking time bomb.

LivinLarge: True enough but it has been ticking for over 100 years and still no apocalypse yet.

the attitude towards debt has reversed itself. People avoided debt, went without, ate poke salad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5pIsl-GUoM

funny, it’s been almost 100 years since the 1930’s – enough time to lose the lessons learned

#118 Smartalox on 01.03.18 at 2:51 pm

REBGV Year-end stats released this morning;

Total detached house sales down 21% Jan to Dec 2017, compared to Jan to Dec 2016.

Leading the decline (Year over year):
West Van -39%
Van West -34%
Port Moody / Belcarra -28%
Coquitlam – 24%
Richmond -23%
Burnaby -22%
PoCo -17%
N. Van -16%
Van East -7%

http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV-Stats-Pkg-Dec-2017.pdf

(numbers taken from the ‘Sales Facts’ page)

What’s interesting, and not presented in the REBGV stats is how the % declines (2016 to 2017) changed in the latter part of the year. Let me see if I can post this:

Jan-Aug Jan-Sept Jan-Oct Jan-Dec
% Change % Change % Change % Change
Burnaby -34% -32% -26% -22%
Coquitam -35% -35% -28% -24%
N. Van -27% -23% -20% -16%
Poco -24% -20% -19% -17%
PoMo -43% -38% -33% -28%
Richmond-31% -29% -26% -23%
Van East -18% -14% -10% -7%
Van West -43% -40% -36% -34%
West Van -48% -45% -43% -39%
Total -32% -26% -25% -21%

What this table is attempting to show is that in August 2017, the total YTD sales were running 32% behind what they were by August in 2016. But then sales picked up considerably, in September (total down 26%) and October (total down 25%), and December (total down 21%), presumably as the threat of B20, and interest rate rises stoked the fears of ‘missing out’.

It will be interesting to see how the trends play out now that B20 has been enacted, and interest rates edge ever closer. Obviously, the areas with the greatest declines are those where ‘the market’ thinks that detached homes are over-priced. Not all areas suffered though: New Westminster for example actually increased sales year over year.

As flop’s ‘Pink Posts’ have shown, houses in Vancouver (westside, eastside) and Burnaby are routinely selling for a lot less than ask, and even several hundred thousand dollars below their (2017) assessments.

Those areas will be the tip of the spear: with sales already sluggish, sellers will have to offer even deeper discounts relative to their bouncy, new 2018 assessments in order to make their sales – and it’s going to be harder than ever to make a living selling detached homes, in 2018.

#119 Dogman01 on 01.03.18 at 3:18 pm

#115 Stan Brooks on 01.03.18 at 1:21 pm

The results (the progress under the liberal uber rich elitists, sigh):

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tim-hortons-heirs-cut-paid-165921082.html

————————————————————–

Ha – Not a Small Business owner that family. Inherited Wealth

Ron Joyce was #55 richest man in Canada in 2011
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canadians_by_net_worth

I am sure the apples did not fall far from that hugely wealth tree

#120 Fake News Again on 01.03.18 at 3:23 pm

#70 conan on 01.03.18 at 12:23 am
#62 I’m stupid on 01.02.18 at 10:55 pm

These weed stores are popping up all over the place in my city. They are also all very busy. The black market is going to take a hit. It is not a question of competitive pricing, instead everything is going to be about, convenience, choice, and quality of product.

If Netflix can grab a sizable market share in an environment where people can easily learn how to Torrent, then these pot stores are going to sell a ridonkulous amount of MJ. People would rather buy it legally.

_____________

I grew a kilo in my garden this past year easily. Water and some food. Thats it. The black market may collapse but the “grow at home” market will accelerate as well.

#121 James on 01.03.18 at 3:31 pm

#120 45north on 01.03.18 at 2:51 pm

Smoking Man: Canadian debt is a ticking time bomb.

LivinLarge: True enough but it has been ticking for over 100 years and still no apocalypse yet.

the attitude towards debt has reversed itself. People avoided debt, went without, ate poke salad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5pIsl-GUoM

funny, it’s been almost 100 years since the 1930’s – enough time to lose the lessons learned
…………………………………………………………………..
Hilarious, Smoking Man providing advice on debt? Here is the guy that lost his job, lost his home, lost his truck and nearly lost his miserable life drinking himself to death. And he is proclaiming his wisdom on Canadian debt? Go some another joint Smoking Man.

#122 Ronaldo on 01.03.18 at 3:52 pm

The speckers (realtors) who bought, tore down and rebuilt will do ok even taking huge drops from the assessed value since those values represented hugely over inflated prices. Those who were sucked in (including foreign buyers) by these specker real estate dudes and bought in at these over inflated prices are going to be trapped in their houses because they won’t be able to afford to write a cheque to the bank for the difference when they find that their mortgage is worth much more than the pressed corn flake mansion they got sucked into buying. Interesting year ahead for lower mainland real estate. Expect to see a rush of “specker houses” to hit the market. The banks will do well since they will still be getting paid interest on original sale price and to top it off, at higher interest rates. Double whammy. Gotta love those bank stocks.

#123 Dupcheck on 01.03.18 at 3:57 pm

With the minimum wage going up, the rates going up, taxes going up, wouldn’t the small businesses get hit three times within one year? What would that do to unemployment and the economy?

#124 Dean on 01.03.18 at 3:59 pm

My lower mainland apraisel went down 125k this year after jumping 650k in 2016….so that’s a thing.

#125 Ronaldo on 01.03.18 at 4:01 pm

#121 Smartalox

”As flop’s ‘Pink Posts’ have shown, houses in Vancouver (westside, eastside) and Burnaby are routinely selling for a lot less than ask, and even several hundred thousand dollars below their (2017) assessments.”
——————————————————————
It would be interesting to know how many of these sales were “specker homes”. Am monitoring a couple places in the Mt. Pleasant area that were bought by realtors to tear down or to reno. Expect they will be coming onto the market soon. They will want to dump them before too long and claim the principal home exemption on the sale as though they lived in them.

Going to see a lot fewer orange barriers being installed on boulevards in the months ahead. The ”speckers” have had their day.

#126 Ronaldo on 01.03.18 at 4:13 pm

Hey Flop, here is one that was purchased back in July of 2008 for $875,000. A 1911 model. Nothing was done to it in the time owned.

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMjFZUA==

It sold in Nov. 2016 for 1.79 million to a realtor who did a complete reno on it. The July 2017 assessment is $1.964 million, previous year was 1.9 million.

Expect to see this one come on the market for 2.8 million or thereabouts. This is a good example of what has been happening in the area over the years.

#127 Brian on 01.03.18 at 4:19 pm

Detached home prices will come down when rates rise. New OSFI rules will not affect prices much. Sellers are still deluded into thinking their homes are worth what they are asking. It’s not until they can’t afford their mortgage payments even with mortgage helpers that they will get desperate. At best, Vancouver real estate is dead money going forward. At worse, you’re going to lose your equity and then some, depending on how much you borrowed commensurate with risk. Unfortunately people don’t equate mortgage debt as risk as we’ve been conditioned to think that it’s good debt. But IMO there is no such thing as good debt.

#128 Kelsey on 01.03.18 at 4:41 pm

#99 Adam

“Figuring out who to blame isn’t nearly as important as figuring out how to fix the problem.”

This is actually the point I was trying to raise, since I see people discussing a perceived problem (in this case CEO salaries) without addressing the root cause. I assume here that CEO pay is a proxy for the broader issue of wealth inequality, which undoubtedly has been rising for decades regardless of how 100 CEOs are compensated.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that inequality ballooned after the Federal Reserve was created in 1913 and then again after Nixon took the world off the gold standard in 1971. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that a median family home is no longer affordable on a median salary while government debt is at record highs yielding near zero nominal return.

But I also don’t think it’s a coincidence that countries with less economic freedom are much poorer than more capitalistic societies.

In the absence of sound money we end up with endless rules and regulations that restrict economic freedom. In the end there is both a smaller and more unequal pie than we would have had otherwise.

We should go protest outside the Eccles Building or 234 Wellington Street rather than your CEOs office.

#129 LivinLarge on 01.03.18 at 4:55 pm

“the attitude towards debt has reversed itself. People avoided debt, went without, ate poke salad:”…well partly true 45. 100 years ago i.e. near the end of WW1, consumer debt was all but non existent. As soon as it became availble and then as it evolved into its current multiheaded hydra, Canadians loaded up on every form they could as soon as it was offered.

I got the first unsecured personal line of credit the CIBC ever wrote because my best friend was a credit officer at CIBC and wanted to win a trip offered to credit officers at the bank.

I know it was the first one because when my friend’s replacement at the branch took offence to me ignoring his invitations to “come in and get aquainted” he hinted at removing the security on the line and argued with me when I told him it wasn’t secured because “CIBC don’t have unsecured personal LOCs”. That was like 1985.

#130 TheDood on 01.03.18 at 5:18 pm

#120 45north on 01.03.18 at 2:51 pm

Smoking Man: Canadian debt is a ticking time bomb.

LivinLarge: True enough but it has been ticking for over 100 years and still no apocalypse yet.
__________________________________________

Yup, you’re right. But now the country’s debt exceeds our GDP. Our biggest export (Oil) which coincidentally pays the highest salaries country wide is in the toilet for the next 10 years (maybe never to recover), and our RE industry is a house of cards as everyone knows. What could go wrong?

#131 InvestorsFriend.com on 01.03.18 at 5:34 pm

Most Canadian’s debt is not Canadians’ debt

#94 LivinLarge on 01.03.18 at 9:43 am

“Canadian debt is a ticking time bomb.” True enough but it has been ticking for over 100 years and still no apocalypse yet. A couple of years of hurt, fear and loathing every decade or so but then off to the races again.

**************************************
The debt of individual Canadians is not owed collectively by all Canadians.

Should you worry about Canadians’ collective debt (the federal debt owed by the government and backed by enormous assets and taxing power) or about individual Canadian’s debt?

Personally, I have no need to worry about either one. It’s all entertainment to me.

#132 maxx on 01.03.18 at 5:52 pm

@ #105

Hmmmm……some off-and-on woo-woo in msm, but still a shadow of its former self.

Does the big owe still believe it’s a viable contender for Amazon?

#133 Christina on 01.03.18 at 8:05 pm

I have seen the prices slowly coming down, listings on longer, but there are still some delusional people out there, here is a fun example:

1. over priced but not insane (I am probably brain washed bring from BC)

https://www.zolo.ca/new-westminster-real-estate/214-blackman-street

listed for $1.26mil
dropped to $1.1mil
sold for $1.09mil
assessed for $1.15mil

highly enjoy seeing the houses selling for below assessed value

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzVVVINw==/

2. Then there is this odd duck.. not sure where they are coming up with their price

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2220181/258-sandringham-avenue-new-westminster-bc

listed for $1.5 coming up 60 days….
no drop
no sell
assessed for $1.03

The second one is assessed for less, but listed for $500k more… logical.

#134 Nick B on 01.03.18 at 8:44 pm

Recession in 2018 means the rate increases will come to a halt. We are long overdue for a recession and when it comes rates will start heading in the other direction.

#135 Maxwell C. on 01.03.18 at 9:35 pm

I think that someone who works forty hours a week ought to be able to be above the poverty line, regardless of the type of work performed.

Also, if these “small business owners” cannot provide good, quality jobs, then I see no benefit in having them exist. Why should workers subsidize the ability of someone else to have a business, when they themselves cannot afford the basics?

#136 Victor on 01.03.18 at 10:59 pm

to #26 JSS
I can see some signs today, shop around.
At ScotiaBank you can have a saving account at 1.55% (0.8+0.75, 0.75 is paid each 90 days)
Tangerine offers 1 year GIC at 2%.

#137 Ronaldo on 01.04.18 at 3:21 pm

Why Bitcoin is a farce (Ponzi Scheme). Destined to return to its true value, zero. A good read.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/01/01/the-illogical-value-proposition-of-bitcoin/#2e7513786218

#138 Ronaldo on 01.04.18 at 3:27 pm

#139 Victor on 01.03.18 at 10:59 pm

to #26 JSS
I can see some signs today, shop around.
At ScotiaBank you can have a saving account at 1.55% (0.8+0.75, 0.75 is paid each 90 days)
Tangerine offers 1 year GIC at 2%.
————————————————————
Wow excellent returns indeed. 5 of my lowly MF’s are up over 2% in the first 2 days of the year. Why would you want to lend these banks your hard earned money for a 2% return. It would take 36 years to double your money. Never had a GIC or HISA in my entire life and thats a long time.

#139 Bridge Doctor on 01.05.18 at 2:49 am

Locked in 3 months ago at 3.47 for 10 years. Term would have been up in june 2019. No plans to move for years…unless of course the sky falls. Did i make the right call? I strongly feel i did, but time will tell.

#140 FLHTK on 01.06.18 at 9:55 am

No new harley for this guy! Will be looking at freeing up cash flow this year. Already started by paying off my car a year early…we are off to a good start!