Year of the pooch

1. The cost of money goes up in 2018. A lot. The Bank of Canada will increase its benchmark rate three times, likely on March 7th, May 30th and September 5th. A fourth increase is possible, according to people who should know, like RBC. Lock it up.

2. The Fed goes three times, too. At least. That will bring to eight the number of quarter-point jumps in roughly 24 months, taking the rate from zero to 2% or more – with further increases expected in 2019 and 2020. Our central bank has followed the US one more than 90% of the time over the past few days. ‘Twill continue

3. Five-year, fixed-rate mortgages will hit 4% in 2018. The benchmark central bank mortgage rate will be more than 5.5%. Newbie real estate buyers will have to qualify at the higher of that, or the contract bank rate plus 2%. Ouch.

4. The stress test, B20, will crater sales and depress prices for at least first three months of 2018. There’s no point predicting anything past that. This is too fluid a situation as rising rates and tighter regs do battle with the house-horny loins of the Mills, who now compose the largest demographic. God help us.

5. There’ll be a serious federal budget in March. If you have money, you will not like it.

6. In politics, Kathleen Wynn is toast, Trump will be thumped in the mid-terms, T2 moves further left to out-jig Jag and Bill Morneau will refuse to do the ethical thing.

7. People who bought houses in Toronto in the Spring of 2017 will insist it was never meant to be an investment. They will lie.

8. BC’s leftie government mistakenly brings in a speculation tax while doubling the one on foreign buyers. The stealth collapse in Lower Mainland detached real estate values accelerates.

9. Growth, interest rates, inflation, corporate profits and the wealth gap all spurt. US unemployment sinks to 1946 levels while stock markets leave 2017 records in the dust. Bitcoin is a failed footnote.

10. A middling, boring, pedestrian balanced portfolio, after doing 8.5% in 2016 and 11% in 2017, does peachy in 2018.

11. Oil looks to be in for a bumpy year as US production bloats, OPEC dithers and Canadian prices sag. Poor Alberta. Taxes, deficit, unemployment, government spending up. Houses and jobs down. Big year for Jason.

12. Trending real estate markets: Montreal and Halifax. Mills are about to kill off the PQ, and people in NS actually have a life (and a house).

13. In the Year of the Dog this pathetic blog will celebrate its tenth birthday, counting more than 3,000 incredibly accurate, prescient and manly posts plus 700,000 weird comments. Of course, canines will continue to be celebrated here as a sacred species, held up as role models. Non-judgmental. Loyal. Forgiving. Happy to sleep anywhere that’s safe and smells vaguely like old socks. And, yes, that’s Bandit up there.

HNY.

156 comments ↓

#1 LivinLarge on 12.31.17 at 3:40 pm

Awww, don’t hold back, open up, tell us what you really think.

#2 Lost...but not leased on 12.31.17 at 3:41 pm

Happy New Year ALL !!!!!

#3 Bob Becue on 12.31.17 at 3:42 pm

Horizons Natural Gas?

#4 shredder on 12.31.17 at 3:50 pm

Garth – you told us to lock in back in 2012 or 2013 or so. that was an expensive mistake in this household…what’s different this time?

#5 calgaryguy on 12.31.17 at 3:50 pm

I agree with everything you said, I almost always do, big fan. Except Bitcoin (I am assuming you mean the entire crypto space, not specifically bitcoin). I agree bitcoin will fall, it cannot scale enough. We will see something else surpass it this year.

After traveling to Korea last week, I could not meet a single person not talking about crypto. Governments are starting to back coins (Thailand and OMG coin is a good example). Millennials do not trust stocks and have spare money because they are renting. Its going into crypto.

The crypto space will easily surpass a trillion dollars in market cap this year. I actually suspect it will before Q3.

There are 0 fee, instant currencies now working (aka DAG coins. This will be the buzz in 2018). You want to pay to block adds on a page for a year? That will be 0.5 XRB. You want to transfer $100k from Coinbase to an Asian exchange? Instant. This is not decade old crappy bitcoin tech anymore.

#6 Millennial905er on 12.31.17 at 3:50 pm

A truly magnificent Bandit pic.

Happy New Year Garth.

#7 Felix on 12.31.17 at 3:52 pm

Too many realtors, too many dogs.

2018 will be the Year of the Cat.

#8 Sam on 12.31.17 at 3:54 pm

Garth, Ryan,Doug,
I want to wish you and all of your families a Happy and Prosperous New Year. Although much of it is above me, thank you for all of your writings and all of your time.
All the best.

#9 Rargary on 12.31.17 at 3:55 pm

Happy New Year from the big ouch (Calgary) Sure hope our suffering ends soon. We’ve had it out here. Cheers all! And HAPPY HOUSING CRASH 2018!

#10 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 12.31.17 at 3:57 pm

dogs are great
happy 2018

#11 Sam on 12.31.17 at 3:57 pm

Smoking Man,
Thank you for sharing your herdonomics.
I appreciate your angle on some events.

SamC

#12 Smartalox on 12.31.17 at 4:02 pm

Happy New Year Garth! Thanks for helping make our 2017 happy and prosperous. Another couple of years, and we’ll be able to throttle back and cruise our way to early retirement.

Happy new year too to the blog dogs, may you be happier, healthier and more prosperous, whatever wealth-building asset you choose. We’re all adults here, and we all realize that some assets may do better than others. Choose wisely.

Let us resolve to cheer our successes, commiserate over our losses but refrain from using this form as a place to blame others for our problems.

Seriously. The choices that you make are your own: it’s up to you to live up to the consequences. The person you see at the Starbucks, or at the bank, or on TV, is not at fault if you feel unfulfilled.

#13 Hiding On the Backstreets on 12.31.17 at 4:03 pm

Agreed. Good points. Except for bitcoin. The future is now.
2018 smells like more govt. taxes imposed by the corrupt politicians.

From Money as Debt (Check it on U toob).
“The power of the system is deeply ingrained, so is the educational and media silence on the subject.”

A big congrats and appreciation to GeniusMoney, who commented here on Garth’s crypto-bitcoin articles in November.

Check also Mike Maloney’s Hidden Secrets of Money. Will we ever awaken from our slumber. Will governments ever admit that they can only perpetually increase the debt to the banking system?

#14 Dan on 12.31.17 at 4:05 pm

Is it possible the demand for liquidity created by Trump’s tax cuts derails the FOMC’s planned interest rate increases?

The opposite. – Garth

#15 Max and Samir on 12.31.17 at 4:07 pm

Happy New Year Mr. Turner! All the best!

#16 Andrewski on 12.31.17 at 4:08 pm

Happy New Year to all the blogdogs! Remember, it’s time in the market, not timing the market.

#17 Lost...but not leased on 12.31.17 at 4:20 pm

TO: Garth

…re point 8 and BC Real Estate

Speculation Tax?
HOW would that manifest itself ? any examples / ideas?

#18 Trumpocalypse2018 on 12.31.17 at 4:21 pm

RED ALERT FOR THE WORLD!!!!

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/31/us/un-secretary-general-2018-message-intl/index.html

TOTAL DISASTER IN 2018 AWAITS HUMANITY!!!!!

Forget the cocktails tonight as the sun sets on 2017.

Ask whether it will rise again in 2018, and for how many days until Trumpocalypse.

PREPARE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#19 Pat on 12.31.17 at 4:21 pm

Happy New Year to you, your wife and
Bandit. I love your blog. Please keep it up. I’m
one of the 99% who read and never comment. Best
Wishes!!!

#20 Alex on 12.31.17 at 4:29 pm

Happy new year Garth!

#21 Technical analysis? on 12.31.17 at 4:36 pm

Predictions are a waste of time unless you are a gypsy…….

#22 I want Bandit's Autograph, Not Yours! on 12.31.17 at 4:39 pm

Wouldn’t Poloz refrain from rate hikes if that Yuppie professional living in a glass tower condo in downtown Toronto complains that a 0.50% increase in mortgage payments equates to suffering in Ethiopia poverty?

The Poloz scheme in Toronto must go on!!!!! Poloz is steaming mad that our Loonie is at 79c, he wants it at least 69c or 70c.

#23 the Awakened One on 12.31.17 at 4:39 pm

Best of 2018 to you and yours Sir G !

Bandit !! You cute, cuddly devil :O) Just look at that mane… I wanna kiss your bear-like face. Be good boy.

#24 Dead Cat Bounce on 12.31.17 at 4:39 pm

That picture is proof that the reason the internet is full of cats pictures is that people with dogs actually go outside.

Happy New Year Y’all !!!

#25 Muhammad on 12.31.17 at 4:49 pm

Happy new year Turner and your team. Great work done.

#26 Claire on 12.31.17 at 4:53 pm

Gorgeous dog! Happy New Year! That is all.

#27 I’m stupid on 12.31.17 at 5:02 pm

Garth this blog should be PG. The picture of bandit put my dog in heat. Lol

Happy New Year everyone!

#28 Smoking Man on 12.31.17 at 5:02 pm

Agree with all 13 items.

Garth Forgot the bigee.
14.o Full UFO alien disclosures.

Happy New Year Y’all.

If I don’t get to hammered and can still work the phone tonight. 3am Toronto time live periscope from the Strip.

@Smokingman on Twitter.

#29 isuckless on 12.31.17 at 5:03 pm

HNY

Срећна Нова Година :)

Cats rule (dogs are fine too)!

#30 rainclouds on 12.31.17 at 5:08 pm

HNY 2018 back !

Got our 440 MILLION Powerball tix.
Don’t expect to fly steerage evah again….Maybe get me some hair , style it like Garth……….

#31 Moses71 on 12.31.17 at 5:10 pm

Happy New Years Garth!!
And here’s to another year of you keeping that great head of hair!!

Keep posting 2018!!

#32 Kc on 12.31.17 at 5:11 pm

10 years?? OMG….

Have another good year Garth, and all the rest of ya…
Happy New Year

#33 The Boulder on 12.31.17 at 5:14 pm

Happy new year to all.

Thanks for jotting down the notes, Garth. It will be easy to measure, how many out of these 12 points will come ture.

#34 young & foolish on 12.31.17 at 5:14 pm

Happy New Year … to all Blog Dogs ….
and Garth, thanks a million for the blog!

#35 Greg, Oakville on 12.31.17 at 5:17 pm

Hi Garth,
I hope your family, and the world, an even better year
in 2018.

#36 AK on 12.31.17 at 5:18 pm

“In politics, Kathleen Wynn is toast” – It’s about time.

“Trump will be thumped in the mid-terms” – 7 more years for President Trump.

Happy New Year.

#37 Orcas and Islands on 12.31.17 at 5:27 pm

10% detached boost in 2018 for Nanaimo and surrounds as Island wannabees sail the Salish to a better life with their depressed mainland lottery winnings.

#38 Bobby on 12.31.17 at 5:41 pm

Great post Garth.
But I think as the provinces, both Alberta and B.C., move hard right Trudeau may be in big trouble if he tries to move too far left. Besides, he is looking increasing incompetent with each passing issue.
With rising costs for everyone, many are starting to realize that it is not only the wealthy that are paying more, but they are too.
Perhaps this will be the year the housing market collapses. Then we will all realize just how much of our economy is tied up in real estate.
Happy New Year!

#39 Tony on 12.31.17 at 5:43 pm

Financial crash and stock market meltdown around mid 2018. Trump is impeached and the bankers lose the gold market as demand overtakes their manipulation. Gold shoots to $2,500 an ounce U.S. silver to $75 an ounce and Bitcoin breaks the $50,000 U.S. mark. Oil falls back to the $50 U.S. mark around March 2018.

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.17 at 5:53 pm

@#18 Trumpocalypse2018

Dammit! Your absence lulled me into a false sense of security.
I forgot to “lock in” the 2018 Trumpocalypse name….

AND you trumped it all by posting as #18 !

Double Well done

Full Moon tonight………

#41 An Onyma on 12.31.17 at 5:55 pm

Bandit is adorable!
Thank you, Mr. Turner, for another year of sharing your knowledge with us.
Here’s wishing a prosperous new year to all!

#42 Bezengy on 12.31.17 at 5:55 pm

We’re off to a good start to the new year here in Gold town as all the rats, coons, and bedbugs froze this week, poor things. I predict the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. I wouldn’t want to wager a bet on anything else.

#43 Tony on 12.31.17 at 5:59 pm

I agree with 4, 5, 6, 7 and 11 and disagree with the rest. Bitcoin will have a stellar year again and Canadian interest rates will fall. I’m loaded up on Litecoin and am backing up the truck on gold and silver bars while the Canadian dollar peaks the first week of January around the 80.50 mark. 2018 will be the year the bankers lose the gold and silver market.

#44 DON on 12.31.17 at 5:59 pm

10 years – congrats. A daily religion.

Happy New Year Garth and blog dogs.

This will be an interesting year.

#45 Bezengy on 12.31.17 at 6:00 pm

Happy New Year Everyone! Thank you Garth and fellow bloggers for the hours of enjoyment this year.

#46 Flamed out in Kitchener on 12.31.17 at 6:01 pm

Agree with all your thoughts and warnings. In 2018, I plan on drinking more to make it all go away … or at least get so fuzzy that I won’t care. I have to support Corby and Peller as a shareholder.

All the best to you and yours Garth for 2018. Good health, happy times, and more time for all the things that mean the most. Time we can’t buy, for everything else, there’s MasterCard … (and a bottle of good Scotch)

Thanks for all you do and write.

#47 Kelowna on 12.31.17 at 6:04 pm

Thanks Garth for another great year of interesting perspective, sage advice, witty commentary and some of the best pictures on any blog!

HNY!

#48 Trojan House on 12.31.17 at 6:23 pm

I believe the problem starts with our education system. Aside from reading, writing and arithmetic, children should be taught from a young age about money, entrepreneurship, saving and investing. Our education system totally fails our young people. While it’s all well and good that they learn about geography, history, sociology, etc, when was the last time your banker asked if you new the 10 provinces and 3 territories? My guess is never!

The most important thing in life is being able to manage money, investing and saving. I wish I was taught these three things, at the very least, as a child all the way through to the end of high school. There are thousands of people out there who can’t even balance a check book and that is such a shame. Lack of education when it comes to this is why a lot of people struggle with debt and can’t save a penny. I know being educated about this doesn’t mean that everyone will be a saver and investor and free from debt (because you can’t change human nature), but at least our kids will be given the knowledge to help them prepare for their financial future instead of just winging it, or in some cases, not even trying to prepare. I would even throw in education about entrepreneurship.

Perhaps if people were truly educated about the most important thing in life, we would have a better functioning society?? I think it is time that we start lobbying our governments to provide this type of education as part of the curriculum. Of course, a better educated population is the last thing governments want.

#49 Rick on 12.31.17 at 6:33 pm

“In politics, Kathleen Wynn is toast, Trump will be thumped in the mid-terms, T2 moves further left to out-jig Jag and Bill Morneau will refuse to do the ethical thing.” WRONG!!!

2018 year of the dog. :)

#50 NoName on 12.31.17 at 6:42 pm

#18 Trumpocalypse2018 on 12.31.17 at 4:21 pm
RED ALERT FOR THE WORLD!!!!

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/31/us/un-secretary-general-2018-message-intl/index.html

TOTAL DISASTER IN 2018 AWAITS HUMANITY!!!!!

Forget the cocktails tonight as the sun sets on 2017.

Ask whether it will rise again in 2018, and for how many days until Trumpocalypse.

PREPARE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

—-

Your dude have biggest ever stuf of house turnover in like ever, RR held record longest with 17% stuf turnover, until donny show us how its done, 34% of his stuff with in 1st year, that get fired removed or left their positions. And thise some micikey mouse jobs…

#51 NoName on 12.31.17 at 6:42 pm

And thise are not some micikey mouse jobs…

#52 Karma on 12.31.17 at 6:45 pm

Such a beautiful puppy! Love him!

Happy new year, Garth!

Cheers

#53 FredfromKitchener on 12.31.17 at 6:51 pm

Happy New year!

#54 HP Victoria on 12.31.17 at 6:53 pm

Happy New Year, Garth! Thanks for all the excellent posts this year!

#55 Surfside Boomer on 12.31.17 at 6:54 pm

Dear Garth,
Wishing you all the best for 2018. Thank you so much for your excellent advice. Have been direct investing for over two years now and up 10.77% year to date. (ETFs)
Love those dividends. Your blog is a good reference and I often have searched it looking for information on a particular financial matter. So please keep pumping them out!!

#56 akashic record on 12.31.17 at 6:57 pm

Happy New Year!

Thank you Great Mystery for your most amazing gift: existence.

Looking forward the unpredictable that shapes future the most profound ways from the hindsight.

It is what it is.

#57 islander on 12.31.17 at 7:02 pm

Happy New Year Garth. You are truly long suffering…..
Thanks, as always, for keeping us on track regarding all things financial…..
Here’s to a great 2018!!!!
Happy New Year to all!

#58 OttawaMike on 12.31.17 at 7:03 pm

That Huskey mutt guy is starting to look a little like he’s entering his senior doggy years.

Why can’t dogs have longer life spans like humans?
Especially the good dogs.

#59 mark on 12.31.17 at 7:15 pm

I was surprised that no one has connected the dots and your list of things that “could” happen in 2018 is the US invading Iran.

You can kiss your balanced portfolio return of 7 percent good by along with global market meltdown.

Just as likely and any of the above predictions.

Oh crypto craziness is a trend and not a fad, millennials will embrace digital currency just like russia, and china is right now, do you really think russia and china want to pay in the Petro-Dollar/ US currency. Serious stuff if this takes hold globally?

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.17 at 7:19 pm

@#51 NoMane
“And thise are not some micikey mouse jobs…”
++++++

Quit while you’re behind.
Or have another drink.

#61 Nonplused on 12.31.17 at 7:20 pm

HNY to you too and to all the weirdos in the comments section as well.

We’ll be staying in tonight as it’s -27 outside. Had to move about of foot of snow off the driveway and my tractor was not happy about being asked to start. It was about 10 minutes before it was ready to throw snow. But I paid carbon taxes on the gas so luckily this won’t happen again!

#62 ImGonnaBeSick on 12.31.17 at 7:22 pm

#48 Trojan House – why would you ever rely on the public school system to teach about something as important as money, entrepreneurship, investing, or saving? Best to teach this by example to your own kids. You sound like a millenial, blaming everything/everyone else on your own short comings..

Thanks Garth and gang for the year of advice. Happy New Year all.

#63 Paul on 12.31.17 at 7:31 pm

HNY!

https://www.facebook.com/awwwvideos/videos/230721887406380/?hc_ref=ARRBrebkh4oj3XLC7kqZzjj7vM-ZZeNp9yfDEX8If97DTACuNuUwHik_7uGdYBuL7JM&pnref=story

#64 mark on 12.31.17 at 7:36 pm

Oil will make $75. Will it stay there, who knows? EIA weekly production guesstimates are still ahead of reality. No major investment for 3 years. Demand is up where it matters. Storage is running down. This is before any disruptions, Venezuela, the Niger Delta Avengers, crazies in Libya, turmoil in Iran or any other unexpected disruption.

#65 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 12.31.17 at 7:43 pm

HAPPY HOUSING CRASH 2018 ,2019,2020 and 2021 bottom.

Happy Housing Crash Everyone Everyone! :-)

#66 joblo on 12.31.17 at 7:46 pm

14. Whatever Builderburgers want they get.

HYN

#67 Capt. Serious on 12.31.17 at 7:47 pm

Happy New Year all!
‘Twas a good year to be invested.

Time to settle in to the ragu and wine.

#68 nick on 12.31.17 at 7:51 pm

What do you mean by point 12

#69 Protea on 12.31.17 at 7:53 pm

Thanks Garth & Co for entertaining us and if one was paying attention learning a thing or two.

One thing I would like you too focus on in 2018 is how as individuals we can do something postive to get rid of Justin Trudeau. give us some thoughts and some bright ideas.

Great 2018 for us all that includes good health.

#70 Lee on 12.31.17 at 8:01 pm

I don’t think Trump will be thumped in 2018. In the Senate, 23 out of 31 seats up for grabs will be Democrat incumbents while 2 are independents. The Dems have way more to lose. Because of the huge number of Demo seats up for grabs the Republicans will likely pick up a net 1-2 seats in the Senate. The lead is too big in the House for Trump to lose the lead. The Democrats will have to wait until 2020.

#71 Unhinged Trader on 12.31.17 at 8:04 pm

>Bitcoin is a failed footnote.

Why so irascible?

Money is money, no?

And here I was toying with the idea of bringing $1 million US worth of my Crypto conquests under your management..

Use it for therapy. – Garth

#72 Long Branch Apprentice on 12.31.17 at 8:04 pm

Everybody watch Mr. Robot.

Most relevant show ever.

#73 Trojan House on 12.31.17 at 8:17 pm

#62 ImGonnaBeSick on 12.31.17 at 7:22 pm

“Best to teach this by example to your own kids.”

That’s exactly the problem! How can people teach it to their kids if they don’t even understand it themselves???!!! For example, you have some doctors, who are supposed to be smart, in big debt. So, not sure of your logic there.

By the way, don’t know how you took away that I was blaming everyone else for my “shortcomings” by my comment?! You are quick to judge, aren’t you? I was making an observation on how our school system teaches everything but the most important aspect of life!

#74 Dobermanduke on 12.31.17 at 8:18 pm

#62 ImGonnaBeSick on 12.31.17 at 7:22 pm

I agree with #48 Trojan House 100% and I’m a boomer. If you parents were not taught about investing how can you expect them to teach their kids properly?

Happy New Year Garth, thanks for the blog.

#75 Linda on 12.31.17 at 8:19 pm

Happy New Year to all (& Bandit is one seriously good looking blog-dog:)).

Be interesting to see how many of the 2018 predictions come true. Regarding the house-horny Mill group, I recently read a prediction that future generations will eschew purchasing homes, but not because they are too expensive. Because they will continue to embrace the new paradigm of renting space – be it accommodation, transportation, goods or services. The ‘upwardly mobile’ will consider anyone who is fixed in one place or who owns more stuff than can be stuffed into a small satchel to be extinct, like the dinosaurs. If that turns out to be true, so much for selling the McMansion to the next generation of greater fools.

#76 VicPaul on 12.31.17 at 8:21 pm

Bandit!…good-looking pup. Dorothy must be a very handsome woman….you know, to counter-balance Garth’s “outa-my-way, I’m serious” countenance. No offence G, just sayin’. HNY!!

#77 Dobermanduke on 12.31.17 at 8:24 pm

#13 Hiding On the Backstreets on 12.31.17 at 4:03 pm

Great handle!

This train carries saints and sinners
This train carries losers and winners
This train carries whores and gamblers
This train carries lost souls

#78 YVR on 12.31.17 at 8:32 pm

8. BC’s leftie government mistakenly brings in a speculation tax while doubling the one on foreign buyers. The stealth collapse in Lower Mainland detached real estate values accelerates.
——–

Hows that a bad thing? Plus since foreign buyers are a myth, this would have zero impact. Why do we even mention it then?? confused.

So are they. – Garth

#79 Yanniel on 12.31.17 at 8:36 pm

Happy New Year Bandit. Happy New Year Blog Dogs. Happy New Year Garth.

Garth, thank you.

#80 stage1dave on 12.31.17 at 8:54 pm

…”out-jig Jag…” haha

Best wishes for 2018, Mr. Turner; and to everyone else!

#81 Damifino on 12.31.17 at 8:55 pm

5. There’ll be a serious federal budget in March. If you have money, you will not like it.
——————————

T2 has money. Will he not like it?

#82 JM on 12.31.17 at 8:55 pm

Beauty, what a handsome animal.
Another great year, thanks – Happy newyear

#83 Doghouse Dweller on 12.31.17 at 9:01 pm

Heads up Dogs

14. Google probably has all your bank account passwords in the cloud if you have an account and have ever used the chrome browser.

https://www.geek.com/apps/google-chrome-now-remembers-the-passwords-your-bank-doesnt-want-it-to-1590530/

I never save my banking passwords, always type them in. Google some how managed to hover them up into my google account that I use for spam~ Gmail.

It`s a brave new world folks , stay safe and have a Happy New Year !

#84 Danny on 12.31.17 at 9:07 pm

Fair points…..except

“In politics, Kathleen Wynn is toast” I am not too sure. She has her ear close to the community pulse.
Conservatives still like to ride the high horse and their leader has no character.

“Trump will be thumped in the mid-terms, “….yes I agree he is toast…..snake oil selling tactics only work once. He continues to disappoint more people with every tweet and now with his interviews more people see that he is just “too dumb for the job “.
He doesn’t know the difference between “weather” ( like his mood….changes 4 times a day) “….and ” climate” ( like his personality…life long…definitely can’t teach that old Trump guy new tricks )

Happy New Year Garth and family

#85 Adrian on 12.31.17 at 9:11 pm

Happy New Year!

#86 TurnerNation on 12.31.17 at 9:26 pm

The year of the blog dog.
The year of the balanced portfolio.

Today’s thought…if Diversity is Strength then its inverse must be: ‘Homogeneity is Weakness’.

(As always the devil’s in the details)

#87 Zapstrap on 12.31.17 at 9:31 pm

#58 OttawaMike on 12.31.17 at 7:03 pm
Why can’t dogs have longer life spans like humans?
Especially the good dogs.

It was once explained to me that they can only put up with people for that long.
Stay safe and warm everybody.

#88 MarcusC on 12.31.17 at 9:31 pm

Happy New Year and thanks for another year of sharing!

#89 Ronaldo on 12.31.17 at 9:37 pm

The big names in the Crypto space are abandoning ship. A clue of what’s to come in 2018. Hold off on mortgaging the house to buy Bitcoin. It is way beyond its best before date.

https://goldsilverliberty.blogspot.ca/2017/12/prominent-names-within-crypto-space.html

#90 MCGA on 12.31.17 at 9:41 pm

Mr. Turner, how about one or more blog posts devoted to the Ontario gov’t financial situation. I believe 2 yrs ago 25% of gov’t revenue went to pay interest on the debt. How will Ontario survive with interests ramping up?

#91 gfd on 12.31.17 at 9:48 pm

Happy New Year, Garth and the pack

#92 LS in Arbutus on 12.31.17 at 9:51 pm

Happy New Year Garth. Thanks for all the good reading in 2018. And FLOP… thanks for documenting 2017’s beginning of the end….

Nice chart – 25% drop in SFH sales in 2017 in Van:
https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/947534999753859072

$500k (18%) haircut off the peak and we’re JUST getting started:
https://twitter.com/Hutchyman/status/947382795168448513

#93 Pillboy on 12.31.17 at 10:01 pm

My only prediction is that healthcare will continue to severely strain the finances of Ontario, which makes me question how decisions are made at higher levels.

Examples:

Filgrastim (trade Name Neupogen) previously was only covered for curative intent chemotherapy for coverage via the ministry, costing $173 for a single 300mcg injection. A typical cycle would be 5-8 injections multiplied by x number of cycles of treatment.

Now there is a single Subsequent Biologic Entry drug, Grastofil (not quite generic, but commonly referred to as such by the lay person) costs $144 per injection (ie. 30 dollars cheaper). The ministry decides to provide coverage WITHOUT restrictions on usage. They’re now no longer saving any money because it’s being used at MUCH higher levels than before.

Second example, anti-viral medication for shingles Acyclovir was previously only covered for the 800mg strength. Typical viral suppression dose of 400mg twice daily (1/2 tablet twice daily) would cost $1.27 a day for the 800mg tablet.

The ministry then decides recently to cover the 400mg tablet so no splitting is necessary, and negotiates a price reduction with the drug manufacturers. Each 400mg tablet also costs $1.27!!! The province has single handedly increased the drug expense 100% on this molecule alone compared to having patients split the 800mg tablet.

On one hand, the ministry recognizes drug costs are escalating and seeks better pricing from manufacturers by negotiating lower prices, then undoes all that by making silly decisions such as those above.

Add in OHIP+, which is a great idea in theory, but implemented poorly. The only ones saving will be insurance companies because the Ontario Drug Benefit will now become the primary third-party payor.

Reference for prices in the two examples above: http://www.formulary.health.gov.on.ca/formulary/

#94 the ryguy on 12.31.17 at 10:03 pm

#84 Danny on 12.31.17 at 9:07 pm
——————————————

Hows the weather on fantasy island?

What snake oil did President Trump sell? I seem to remember him saying he wanted to lower taxes and bring jobs back to USA…so far he’s done pretty well.

Continue to enjoy the delusion :)

HNY blog dogs…Im off to Mandala for drinks and sinus medicine, all the best!!

#95 45north on 12.31.17 at 10:23 pm

happy new year Garth and blog dogs!

it’s -22℃ in Ottawa, it’s going down to -30℃

#96 Jimmy on 12.31.17 at 10:38 pm

Happy New Year Mr. Turner!

#97 Victor on 12.31.17 at 10:39 pm

Happy New Year, Garth and the dogs!

#98 For those about to flop... on 12.31.17 at 10:53 pm

I thought number 8 was a shout out to myself ,as I have referred to it as The Stealth Correction multiple times.

Either that or I have to do another 2000 posts in 2018 to come off the useful idiot list.

Happy New Year everyone and since we are giving weather reports 22/23 degrees in Phoenix this week..

M43AZ

#99 paracho on 12.31.17 at 11:04 pm

Happy New Year !

#100 Wazoo on 12.31.17 at 11:59 pm

Happy New Year to Garth, Doug, Ryan and all the blog dawgs…

and a personal note to Flop: The lady who sold her house to move East to be with her family (you mentioned her in your reports on here)… passed away in hospital a few days ago after a short illness. Thought you would like to know.

#101 Rateman on 01.01.18 at 12:29 am

I think Poloz won’t raise rates. Apparently the Canadian economy is “surging” yet he still didn’t raise in Dec.

He can’t bring himself to do it. He knows more hikes will mess with Canada’s main economic driver, housing.

It is fun to watch him squirm! I want those rates up more than anyone.

#102 For those about to flop... on 01.01.18 at 12:54 am

Wazoo 59 pm
Happy New Year to Garth, Doug, Ryan and all the blog dawgs…

and a personal note to Flop: The lady who sold her house to move East to be with her family (you mentioned her in your reports on here)… passed away in hospital a few days ago after a short illness. Thought you would like to know.

/////////////////////

Well that is a shitty way to start 2018 but I appreciate you passing that information on Wazoo.

She was my neighbor for the best part of 15 years.

I will pass that information onto a few people when I get back to Vancouver.

I will keep her name off here ,but may she rest in peace…

M43AZ

#103 A Lee on 01.01.18 at 12:58 am

Bandit is so handsome :)

Happy New Year! Your blog offers me a different perspective and I appreciate it. I’ve been a daily reader for years. Thank you for the countless hours you’ve devoted to this blog. Wishing the Turner family a happy and healthy 2018.

#104 slippery cricket on 01.01.18 at 1:03 am

Garth, thanks again for another year of interesting reads.This blog is my nightly go to. Also thanks for the posters who share their thoughts and wisdom in the markets. As for bitcoin….reminds me of a real-estate market that I thought was too expensive to invest in that went on to double or triple in value. Just because I don’t get the bitcoin hype has no relevance to what the masses are capable of.

#105 Grizzly on 01.01.18 at 1:27 am

Thank you for all those years of thoughtful and helpful posts. Many people have benefited. Happy New Year.

#106 ShawnG in TO on 01.01.18 at 1:47 am

happy new year Mr T
and blog dogs too
… i guess the cats too. why not, it’s the new year’s.

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.01.18 at 2:36 am

Now, these are dogs of the year.

http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/sportfotos-des-jahres-das-sind-die-highlights-fotostrecke-156034-12.html

#108 NV Landlord NO MORE on 01.01.18 at 2:44 am

Happy New Year to Every One of you wonderful BLOGDOGS!
I LOVE this blog and especially the info from the masters! I am learning slowly… kicking and screaming though mistakes. BUT I love to read about others’ ideas and successes too.
Foggy tonight in Vancouver. Foghorns blowing – ships whistles honking! I doubt if we’ll be able to see any fireworks. :(
I raise a glass to success in 2018 with balanced portfolios and great gains. Trade well everyone!

#109 I like cookies on 01.01.18 at 2:55 am

Who’s a good boy? Yes, you are!

#110 My dog has issues on 01.01.18 at 3:04 am

Great picture Garth, I think it would look even better without the leash. Happy New Year

#111 MS on 01.01.18 at 3:46 am

Happy New Year! Wishing you health, love, and happiness in 2018!

#112 Dolce Vita on 01.01.18 at 4:27 am

Buon Capodanno Garth.

Agree with your comments save ammending #4, when the outcome of what you write is logically extended, Canada is headed for some very tough times in the FIRE segment of GDP.

Many will be hurt financially in 2018.

The good news is that a home, will be just that, a home.

And not some Ponzi, get rich quick scheme, for those with hubrous that ignore the fact that [thinking they are more clever than the generations that came before them]:

History merely repeats itself.

We are there.

#113 Dmitry on 01.01.18 at 4:49 am

С Новым Годом!

#114 Under the radar on 01.01.18 at 6:32 am

houses sold very well when rates were 5 percent or higher – the mania was absent but the price trajectory was steady. The good agents still had their audi’s, why is it different now that rates are rising?

#115 Robert B on 01.01.18 at 6:33 am

Garth, all the best to you and your extended family in the year 2018….

Didn’t realize that a blog could be so addictive…….Keep it up.

#116 Bhad (Guess®) Bhabie on 01.01.18 at 6:58 am

2 0 1 eight
bubbles deflate

taxman at the door
y’all be cryin poor

put a muffler on midas
so we get sum peace

inflation we all feelin
feds start dealin

singin song by boz scag
bro can u spare a dime bag

dotard duck nukem
mashes lil kim

the new reality
no mo newtrality

go grrl googlin
goin to cos mo

forgive us our sins
Kat and Rex is twins

crib to crypt
ain’t no script

dont be da fool
in Garths school

whereda folks all be cool
cuz bhabie its cold ousside

HNY
bye

#117 David McDonald on 01.01.18 at 7:01 am

Happy New Year Garth! Thanks for all the insight.

#118 Dan.t on 01.01.18 at 7:43 am

#89 Ronaldo
—————-

Weird a gold and silver pumping and highly biased blog saying get out of crypto and buy gold and silver- i’m All over it, time to mortgage the house and buy precious metals. :-)

Just like the nice commission friendly realtors saying it’s always a good time to buy.

I think it’s better to just listen to the “experts “ in the papers and on tv and just do what they tell you to… critical thinking- overrated. Happy new year….

And I think 2018 will be a crazy and nuts year for crypto… millionaires or bust… but thinking the former, lot of money to be made still!

#119 Howard on 01.01.18 at 7:44 am

Happy new year. Balmy 10C in Paris but I haven’t seen the sun in weeks.

Prediction : Amazon announces Toronto will be its second HQ. House bubble soars to a final blowoff top.

#120 Thank you Garth on 01.01.18 at 7:58 am

Happy New Year Garth, Dorothy and Bandit. I wish you health and happiness – the rest you can buy yourself!

PS I believe pediction #2 should read: « Our central bank has followed the US one more than 90% of the time over the past few DECADES » (not days).

#121 banditito on 01.01.18 at 8:02 am

Garth

Was always thinking that Bandit was more like the dog in Johnny Quest cartoon.. Thoroughly disappointed. Anyway, 2018 during Korea Winter Olympics, DPRK will agitate and prompt the start of WW3 by launching a live nuke at Japan. A limited thermonuclear exchange takes place, and DPRK is vaporized, but a major arms race ensues.

#122 BG on 01.01.18 at 8:16 am

Happy new year Garth.

Thanks for the daily blog.

#123 shredder on 01.01.18 at 8:16 am

Stay balanced, stay invested
I hear that all the time from my fiancee, Investor Group gal and it seems similar to what Garth preaches ( don’t panic on market corrections and sell 5% div paying stocks to buy 2% bonds)
Good general advice for most of the herd. I recall buying Royal Bank common during the economic crisis when it was close to a 10% div…think I paid around $18 or so.
If the goal is to have a well funded retirement…having some “dry powder” to deploy is a risk I understand ( by setting sell targets…not holding forever) And yes i did have some dry powder to buy Laurentian Bank after the “herd’ shaved $8 a share off. Also picked up other div paying stocks recently at a discount…Tax loss selling perhaps? ( AD.to @ 9% div, ALA.to @ 8% div, BRE.to @ 8+% div) Most have DRIP’s

#124 Irent2018 on 01.01.18 at 9:01 am

Happy New Year Garth sir and fellow readers!!

#125 Ian on 01.01.18 at 9:13 am

HAPPY OSFI B-20 NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!

It will be such a good year I can hardly sleep.

#126 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.01.18 at 9:38 am

Meet the New Year. Same as the Old Year.

#127 LivinLarge on 01.01.18 at 9:54 am

“houses sold very well when rates were 5 percent or higher – the mania was absent but the price trajectory was steady. The good agents still had their audi’s, why is it different now that rates are rising?”…geeze Louise how can so many adults have soooo little understanding of the way life works.

When rates were “5 percent or higher” they had receded to that point from higher and the level of debt was appreciably lower. So, the reduction in rates made a bad situation more tolerable.

Now, after years of steadily falling rates, borrowers are extended to the point that even minor increases in nominal rates simply put them under water. 2% – 4% is a 100% increase in interest portion of debt service.

When credit was cheap wayyyyy too many folks loaded up on it and now they’re truly screwed.

From 1997 until recently, every time I renewed my mortgage the APR was lower or the same as before and I still always remembered a “golden rule” of borrowing…”rates have no where to go but up” and took fixed rate 3 year term while shortening my amortization to keep the payment the same as in the beginning. In a falling rate environment this formula always saves you a fortune in interest by shortening the time to discharge. But in a rising rate environment you’re just screwed, blued and tatooed.

If you want to see what happens in a rising rate environment then go back to the library and read the financial sections of mid to late 1970s news papers. It can get that ugly because it has already been that ugly.

There is an oft mention (in this blog) study from CIBC that shows that a high proportion of Canadians fear being able to make their minimum payment responsabilities if there is even a tiny increase in rates and oh boy, there is going to be more than a tiny increase.

#128 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.01.18 at 10:07 am

Happy New Year to Garth, Ryan, Doug and all the Dogs.

As always, I appreciate the predictions and the perspective you provide. All the best!

#129 HaHaHa on 01.01.18 at 10:12 am

#48 Trojan Horse….. Very good analysis on the problem with the school system. Most parents cannot teach kids about money because they are stupid. And that is the truth. I am a boomer late in the investment game and no one taught me. Still learning on my own and finally doing okay. Believe me school in the seventies was full of ideological commie thought too. Justines Daddy was PM then. But like I said make money in spite of the idiot. Quite easy really.

#130 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.01.18 at 10:26 am

The cold getting you down?
Just take a tour of this gorgeous villa once owned by Picasso.
A mere 30 million loonies.
Look and weep, Canadian puck chasers.
http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/picassos-luxus-villa-wohntraum-fuer-20-2-millionen-euro-fotostrecke-153488.html

#131 LivinLarge on 01.01.18 at 10:27 am

HaHaHa, hits the nail on the head re: parents teaching their children how finances work.

Based on the level of understanding of how financial markets work as demonstrated by the comments section here, parents are likely the last place we should steer our children to for efficacious financial literacy.

When so many commenters don’t even understand how the simplest financial instruments, like RSPs or TFSAs or even mortgages work, leaving them to educate their offspring is a recipe for disaster.

You don’t need even a rich haircutter to understand how finances work, Feerless Leader has written almost every day for decades on the real workings of the financial industry. AND Fearless Leader was at one point at the apex of the industry as Minister of National Revenue.

#132 Ace Goodheart on 01.01.18 at 10:33 am

One thing they’re not telling you about the proposed US tax cuts to the wealthy is the included end to the post head tuition tax credit.

A post head student in the USA usually gets two payments from her / his university. They are a taxable stipend, usually around 30,000 and then a non taxable tuition credit, usually 16,000 to 30,000 depending on the university.

Trump is going to start taxing the tuition credit.

This will have the effect of pushing 30k per year students into a 25% tax bracket and having them pay tax on a 60k income.

What this means? Only the children of the wealthy can go on to graduate studies.

This is not news yet but it will be in the new year.

Loom for a spike in US grad students applying to Canadian universities

#133 Ace Goodheart on 01.01.18 at 10:34 am

Sorry post graduate. I hate auto correct

#134 the Jaguar on 01.01.18 at 11:01 am

‘Shinrin-yoku’, or what is know as ‘forest bathing’. The medicine of being in the forest. Bandit’s expression says ” I am happy to do as you ask and sit quietly while you take my photograph. Anywhere you are is where I want to be”.
My guess would be that Dorothy, who likes photography, took this photo. The peaceful tree lined road frames the spirit dog well.

#135 our pal Val on 01.01.18 at 11:06 am

BIS runs the show for the whole world and have succeeded through low interest rates and now have everyone by the short and curly’s.

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.01.18 at 11:08 am

Happy New Year Dogs.

Now back to reality.

There are 14 million elevators on the planet.
1 Billion elevator “trips” occur each day.
I am everywhere.
Resistance is futile.

#137 Jim Jenkins on 01.01.18 at 11:38 am

14. Gold spikes to new highs?

#138 conan on 01.01.18 at 12:25 pm

That is a brave prediction list. Your political predictions are particularly Achillean.

“6. In politics, Kathleen Wynn is toast,” – Garth

If she is toast, does that happen by losing the election, or does she step down before hand?

“Trump will be thumped in the mid-terms,” – Garth

Could/should/would/ be devastating, but then again, its Trump. He seems to have political Houdini powers, as well as, TEFLON.

“T2 moves further left to out-jig Jag” – Garth

Agree, its going to be jiggy.

“Bill Morneau will refuse to do the ethical thing.” – Garth

You think he should resign still? Its a nothing burger of an ethical lapse IMHO. He has the job because of his business background. Same thing with Former ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson ,who is now , The Secretary of State. Think this guy can talk to the ME without oil coming up in the conversation?

#139 TurnerNation on 01.01.18 at 12:36 pm

Anyone know a good Medical Tourism site – and nearby (S. America?) Hope no one is getting sick this year

Narrative collapse: endless taxes, carbon tax but you cannot get a hospital bed:

“Hospital overcrowding leaves patients in hallways, despite province …
CBC.ca-Dec. 8, 2017
The experience of a 41-year-old woman with pneumonia this week highlights the growing problem of overcrowding in Ontario hospitals, in spite of the measures already taken by the province to open more beds. Holly Pothiah went to a hospital in Brampton, but then had to be rushed by ambulance to an ..”

– Nothing is left to chance in this word, NOTHING. All planned out and simulated years in advance. A.I. monitoring our reactions to tweak the system. Some say the new tax changes aimed at Doctors are to force a State Doctor System (like Cuba’s), no self employed ones here.

– 10,000 wheezing oldsters to crash the system?!
As I say 101 new laws against us each year.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/new-year-federal-national-changes-1.4467455

“For those who want to bring elderly parents and grandparents to Canada, 2018 brings the return of the sponsorship program that had been closed down to deal with backlogs.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/lottery-parents-grandparents-immigration-1.4086527

Where are my laws? I follow the law of natural selection and fitness: good diet, exercise, gainful activities. Free mostly. Instinct – the reason humans have survived this long, not totalitarian government action.

#140 Trumpocalypse2018 on 01.01.18 at 12:36 pm

Nuclear button on his desk, ready to go. It’s reality now, people!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/kim-jong-un-warns-of-nuclear-button-on-his-desk-1.3741148

Sure, invest in TFSAs tomorrow, but only if you already have your shelves stocked with canned goods and at least 250 litres of vehicle fuel put aside safely so you get out of built up areas across the country. You need at least a two week supply of water and two months of food provisions.

It’s the 100th anniversary of the end of the Great War. And the beginning of the Last War.

Prepare to survive. Most of your neighbours will not.

Real estate ownership will becoming more and more like digging your own grave and chaining yourself to the headstone. It will plummet in value when it hits the fan. People need mobility and liquidity in times of catastrophic crisis. Ensure you have at least three types of currency in storage for what lies ahead.

This year, the hangover never goes away.

Welcome to 2018.

#141 Steuy on 01.01.18 at 12:48 pm

Happy New Year to Everyone who is fortunate enough to follow this Blog. May the fortunes of Prosperity and Good Health be ours to share with those that we Love and others that are truly in need.

Thanks Garth for your tireless efforts. I hope you have a Happy New Year!

#142 ANON on 01.01.18 at 12:48 pm

Cannot say HNY with a straight face.

#143 George Ohwell on 01.01.18 at 1:23 pm

Iranians don surgical masks to dissect the lies of their leader. Americans apply more petroleum jelly to their goggles. Indebted Canadians pin their hopes on liquid coal* to keep them afloat.

*formerly known as “black gold” to the culturally insensitive , or “tar sands” to the economically insensitive; corrected by those whose world view is sweetened with Demerera*

*formerly brown sugar

#144 ben on 01.01.18 at 1:29 pm

Is Montreal really going to be doing well given 3 rate rises?

I think it will do *better* than Vancouver but that isn’t saying much.

#145 conan on 01.01.18 at 1:34 pm

#140 Trumpocalypse2018 on 01.01.18 at 12:36 pm

“Nuclear button on his desk, ready to go. It’s reality now, people!”

If you want a heads up on when zero hour is approaching , it will be soon after the USA starts showings video and satellite pics of Kim’s work camps. Once that happens, Kim is cornered, and society just Sun Tzu’d itself.

Thunderbirds are a go etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnJbA0xz5GM

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.01.18 at 1:47 pm

@#140 Poxy2018

God Bless ya Poxy.
It was getting a little boring without your paranoid ramblings .
How many years has it been 2016?
2017?
and 2018?

Let me guess.
You have a gramophone hand crank music box in the bunker along with a vacuum tube telly with old black and white “I Love Lucy” reruns in the Betamax player….
Just make sure the fuel is “stabilized” with an additive or its “Aspen Fuel” …..Otherwise it will turn to useless coagulated goo in a matter of months….then yer walkin to the nearest radioactive Mall to forage for Beans, bullets and bumwad ……that is, If the CHUD don’t get you first……..

#147 NoName on 01.01.18 at 1:54 pm

#140 Trumpocalypse2018 on 01.01.18 at 12:36 pm

nuc… button desk.

i believe not in that, amazon sell them dime a dozen.

https://www.amazon.com/Fart-Button-Improved-Farts-Version/dp/B0177SLPDS/ref=pd_sim_21_7?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=B0177SLPDS&pd_rd_r=PA6T56AG8JQNW8VZBVZF&pd_rd_w=iSLB9&pd_rd_wg=Qdk6p&psc=1&refRID=PA6T56AG8JQNW8VZBVZF

#148 YVR on 01.01.18 at 2:14 pm

8. BC’s leftie government mistakenly brings in a speculation tax while doubling the one on foreign buyers. The stealth collapse in Lower Mainland detached real estate values accelerates.
——–

Hows that a bad thing? Plus since foreign buyers are a myth, this would have zero impact. Why do we even mention it then?? confused.

So are they. – Garth

…………………………………

So it would be a genius move for them to implement maximum housing measures targeting foreign money as it is an insignificant part of the market. The housing market would hold up and the people get what they want. Genius.

Of course not. People like you believe the foreign-buyer-dictates-prices myth, so more anti-Chinese action leads to a general market decline as everyone retreats to find out what will happen. We’ve seen this movie before. – Garth

#149 FLHTK on 01.01.18 at 2:28 pm

i hope your right about stocks….i wanna see my weed stock Aurora cannabis surge to new levels.

#150 thesecondcomingofjohngalt on 01.01.18 at 2:58 pm

Happy New Year!
All the best for 2018 Garth, love your blog, an integral part of my daily routine.

#151 X on 01.01.18 at 3:06 pm

1. I hope you are right on this, cheap money has dug a lot of people into a lot of debt. 3 rate increases would be moving in the right direction.

2. Again I hope you are right on this one too, even a 4th Fed move, if they start to get a little inflation, may not do their economy much harm, after all of their tax cuts and having almost full employment.

3. Five-year, fixed-rate mortgages will hit 4% in 2018.

Most kids don’t know that the average 5yr rate is around 6%. This seems to bemind boggling for them, apparently they think money is almost interest free.

4. The stress test, B20, will crater sales and depress prices for at least first three months of 2018.

Good, an end to low rates and high house prices. A Return to reality.

5. There’ll be a serious federal budget in March.

Great, instead of doing something to grow our economy, tax what is left in Canada, and take from those who haven’t spent all of their money on houses.

6. Does anyone wonder if T2 will move so far left, that the left vote is spilt and the Cons get in? I have had it with the public photo ops of T2….

7. People who bought houses in Toronto in the Spring of 2017 will insist it was never meant to be an investment. They will lie.

Funny how when houses went up it was all over the news, but on the way down, not so much. I dunno, advertising dollars or something.

8. IMO those taxes are inappropriate, but good to hear that BC prices will be falling.

9. We may get inflation and deflation here in Canada at the same time…..good or bad depending upon which assets you hold.

10. A middling, boring, pedestrian balanced portfolio, after doing 8.5% in 2016 and 11% in 2017, does peachy in 2018.

Steady as she goes.

#152 conan on 01.01.18 at 3:09 pm

2018

It is going to be the beginning of a new era. Disruptive technologies and business processes are going to shake things up.

Happy New Year Everyone!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJxPldqdk7Y

#153 Mark on 01.01.18 at 3:15 pm

“So it would be a genius move for them to implement maximum housing measures targeting foreign money as it is an insignificant part of the market. “

No, that would just invite retaliatory responses against Canadian interests in foreign countries (of which Canadians are accumulating such at a rate dramatically higher than foreigners are accumulating Canadian interests, especially overpriced Vancouver/Toronto RE!). Not exactly in the interests of Canadians.

Government policy to quash the housing bubble, started under Flaherty (RIP) with the notorious 2013 Budget crackdown on CMHC subprime mortgage insurance, and continuing under the current Liberal government has made quite a dent in the bubble. Prices stagnant in Toronto/Vancouver since 2013. Sales mix changes finally having exhausted themselves last year as mix changes had run their course and became completely unsustainable. Prominent RE sell-siders like Brad Lamb being relegated to making bizarre claims that RE should be bought for young children to hedge against price increases — a reflection of the complete fantasy he must exist in at the moment.

What this means? Only the children of the wealthy can go on to graduate studies.

No it means that business, corporations, will need to get back into sponsoring grad studies for the skills and research they need from graduate students. Instead of the completely nonsensical situation where universities churn out large numbers of grad students through a de facto subsidization in the tax code, and exploit them for their research contributions to boot. The tax changes are probably the most research and student positive changes I’ve yet to see from Trump. Hopefully he can finish the job through the tightening of immigration policy so US scientists and engineers, currently in extreme surplus, can actually get back to work and contribute gainfully to the economy. Instead of foreign nationals being used to suppress wages as exists in much of the STEM sector.

and oh boy, there is going to be more than a tiny increase.

Don’t know if I’d count on that. A stagnant/falling RE market really is going to zap a lot from GDP, and that should keep rates down. The real tragedy for the highly indebted is that of opportunity costs — families with a lot of debt simply won’t be able to participate in outsized equity returns that are likely in Canada going forward given the sheer amount of lag to the global markets. $400k trapped in a house, for example, provides an owners imputed rent of what, $10-$15k/year? $400k in a portfolio of Canadian stocks at a P/E ratio of 15 and a 5% growth rate implies an return on that money in excess of $40k/year. A massive loss in opportunity to those trapped in excessive home ownership.

#154 GLK on 01.01.18 at 6:25 pm

Garth. Happy new year to you and beloved ones.

#155 akashic record on 01.01.18 at 7:10 pm

#72 Long Branch Apprentice on 12.31.17 at 8:04 pm

Everybody watch Mr. Robot.

Most relevant show ever.

—–

Roger that. Most relevant a bit too strong.

Alexa… # shutdown now AWS… good girl.

#156 tccontrarian on 01.02.18 at 5:24 pm

“9. Growth, interest rates, inflation, corporate profits and the wealth gap all spurt. US unemployment sinks to 1946 levels while stock markets leave 2017 records in the dust. Bitcoin is a failed footnote.” -GT
———————————————————-

I’m in agreement on most other points (and Bitcoin), but I don’t think the major US markets will end positive in 2018. Perhaps a rapid surge up few days/weeks in the beginning of the year to entice novice investors to ‘jump into’ Index funds (because it’s a ‘you can’t go wrong’ strategy), but the markets will seperate the ‘boys’ from ‘men’, as they say (perhaps I should say the ‘girls’ from ‘women’ too? :-)

TCC