The revolution

Love him or loathe him, Donald Trump now matters. This is getting serious. The tax cut bill, to take effect in 2018, is revolutionary and may touch your life. Most Canadians have absolutely no idea what this is, or why it’s happening.

Some key points to know: the overall corporate tax rate will be dropped by 40%. That’s extreme. Corporations will be able to deduct the cost of new equipment for the next five years immediately, instead of over decades. Also extreme. Small business owners will get a 20% tax cut on incomes below about $300,000. Compare that to what Bill Morneau’s doing. Personal deductions double and the average federal tax bill will fall, says Trump, “by half.” The top personal tax bracket clicks in at $600,000 (it’s $220,000 here), and is reduced by 7%. Mortgage interest remains deductible. Death taxes drop by 50% until 2026. Trump heirs, say mainstream media, will save about $1 billion.

Of course there’s a lot more to it, and comparisons with our system are facile. Families here get public health care and fat cheques for having kids. We have no mortgage break, but keep all house profits. Canadian taxes are higher, but we have a government that can’t keep its fingers off anything or stop apologizing and writing cheques. Beavers seem to like bloated governments, and are willing to pay for them.

So, what’s it mean? Probably this…

Extra sauce for investors

Dropping corporate taxes by two-fifths is massive. And while Trump proclaims this will goose employment, raise wages and spur the economy, that’s unlikely. Unemployment has already turned into full employment, stock markets are at record levels and the US is on a roll – adding an average of 19,000 new manufacturing positions monthly.

Corps are sitting on $2.3 trillion in cash reserves, which is double the level of 15 years ago. They don’t need lower taxes, and are unlikely to shovel the savings into creating more jobs. Remember that there are now more jobs available in the US than there are applicants to fill them. So, the hundreds of billions in reduced overhead this tax reform will yield will likely go into profits, then dividends, and flow to investors. If you think the Dow is high at 24,000, just wait.

New reasons to look south

If your company spends $50 million building a plant in Windsor you get to write that massive investment off your corporate taxes gradually over the life of the factory. If you build it across the river then, thanks to Trump, you can now deduct it entirely the day you move in – and use that to wipe out corporate taxes for years, or decades. It’s a huge incentive to move to the States for any company that’s been thinking about it, taking jobs along with it. Ouch.

Higher mortgage rates & a lower dollar

Lower taxes for corporations and individuals, along with spending incentives will likely pour more gas on the American economy, resulting in inflation and higher interest rates. Already the Fed has raised then four times in 12 months and is on tap for at least three more hikes in 2018. With tax reform that could turn into eight more increases over the next two years, catapulting American rates above ours. The immediate impact is a lower dollar here and a rising cost of living as imports become pricier. But augmenting bond market yields caused by the Fed will also hike Canadian five-year mortgage rates. Yes, just as the universal stress test is taking hold.

If the Bank of Canada acts to shore up the currency and address mounting inflation with rate increases of its own, the economy here may be pinched, and residential real estate squished. With epic family debt, you know what that means.

And in the long run, crypto?

When I was 18 and went off to military boot camp for a few months my mother handed me a box of condoms and said, ‘short term pleasure, long term pain.’ It worked. Now the Trumpian tax cuts have us in a similar spot – making economic whoopee, to be followed by dismal decades. The legislation being passed will add between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion to the American deficit by irresponsibly lowering federal revenues without cutting expenses. To stave off crisis or sustain the value of its currency, Washington will be forced into even harsher decisions down the road than would have been the case pre-Trump.

The next administration will have to gut spending, which could mean social unrest, or add a big new tax burden to staunch the red ink – which will shrink the economy and throw millions out of work. And guess what the chances of that happening are?

I’m starting to suspect Donald Trump is the Bitcoin guy.

190 comments ↓

#1 Andrewski on 12.17.17 at 12:33 pm

Maybe Don is in cahoots with the Winklevoss twins…

#2 Nick on 12.17.17 at 12:36 pm

Safe haven currencies like the Swiss franc should be owned by everyone as a dollar hedge. Not Bitcoin.

#3 David on 12.17.17 at 12:38 pm

Great analysis Garth. For Canadian investors, which Canadian sectors are likely to benefit most? I’m guessing banks and utilities which have large investments in the US.

#4 AK on 12.17.17 at 12:39 pm

“The next administration will have to gut spending, which could mean social unrest, or add a big new tax burden to staunch the red ink – which will shrink the economy and throw millions out of work.”
——————————————————————
How about a leaner Government ?

That’s what ‘gut spending’ means. – Garth

#5 Technical analysis? on 12.17.17 at 12:54 pm

All this bodes well for physical assets, especially gold.

#6 For those about to flop... on 12.17.17 at 12:58 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Richmond.

The numbers don’t look too bad for this one at first glance,but with so much distressed inventory in Richmond it’s hard to see them doing any better than a Pink Draw.

9551 Kirkmond Crescent ,Richmond.

Paid 2m August 2016 Ass 2.04

Asking 1.99

There is a good chance that Richmond gets hit hardest amongst the cities that make up the Inner Ring…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/9551-kirkmond-crescent

#7 For those about to flop... on 12.17.17 at 1:00 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver.

These guys are as good a candidate as any to take a decent hit.

2316 w 21st ave ,Vancouver.

Paid 3.53 November 2016 Ass3.67

Asking 3.48

Anyone paying attention will know this price bracket has lost a couple of screws and is hanging off the wall…

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2316-w-21st-avenue

#8 DC on 12.17.17 at 1:06 pm

You served in the military? Was it in a Toronto-area Regiment?

Reserves only. Tough enough. — Garth

#9 cd on 12.17.17 at 1:16 pm

Will the new tax plan stimulate a large amount of growth? So much that will cause companies to import a ton of Canadian workers to meet demand? Will Canadian exporters suddenly get a spike in demand for their products? If this plan will increase the economy as quickly as planned, then are interest rate increases that much more likely to happen?

#10 AGuyInVancouver on 12.17.17 at 1:28 pm

The Trump tax cuts will only accelerate the USA circling the drain and aid the rise of China.

#11 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.17 at 1:32 pm

Trump, bit coin, end of net neutrality:
Only one more horseman and the bible is right.

#12 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.17 at 1:33 pm

Predict > 300 posts.
Go blog dogs, go!

#13 Bob on 12.17.17 at 1:48 pm

You served in the military? Was it in a Toronto-area Regiment?

Reserves only. Tough enough. — Garth
____________________________________________

Hmmmm…there might be hope for you yet…

#14 TurnerNation on 12.17.17 at 1:49 pm

IHCTD9 bud got bad news for you. A strong chance within 5 years you’ll be moving into a UN-approved density city.

Nobody will come to your door and force you out but…the pen is mightier. (Why we get 101 new laws passed against us each year).

1. Ontariowe will declare bankruptcy and first cuts will be to rural services. This means roads not maintained, no emergency services, no schools. Homes and businesses will be unable to get Property Insurance and must move into cities.

AND/OR

2. Overnight (as we saw with the trumped up VW emissions ‘scandal’) your vehicles will be deemed gross polluters and must be taken off the road withing a certain timeframe. No insurance company will touch them.
In their place, electric cars – which of course (still) have no range for rural areas (strangely the only technology on this planet not to show multiples of advancement in past 50 years…but I digress).

AND/OR

3. Freakish and random forest fires will target rural houses unchecked, burning hotter than before like melting car engines, and leaving only dust – and strangely often trees . See the recent L.A. evidence.

AND/OR

4. Most of rural Ontario will be declared “protected” areas – no land use. See this new development:

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/12/08/ontario-may-expand-greenbelt-to-protect-water-supply.html

#15 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.17 at 2:09 pm

The end of net neutrality will have yuuge negative impact on freedom of choice on the Internet.
Already now, about 60% of America have only access to one Internet provider.
Remember the days when everyone with a computer could be a Internet provider.
Like bit coin now.
Just like oil and drugs: They hook you and then they have you over a barrel (in case of oil, literally).

#16 Lost...but not leased on 12.17.17 at 2:11 pm

Re:todays topic…..

No news here, politician’s modus- operandi has always been to kick the can down the road.

Given the enormous debt “Hope and Change “Obama racked up building a quasi -communist state….Trump simply flipped the script.

#17 Terry on 12.17.17 at 2:14 pm

“Most Canadians have absolutely no idea what this is, or why it’s happening.”

You’re quite correct on this point Garth. I’m regularly taken aback at how out of touch and media brainwashed many Canadians are. Canada is out of step and going backwards. We are just over a Trillion dollar economy sitting next door to a 20 Trillion dollar economy. Canada owes it’s standard of living to America and to think we can continue to have economic prosperity moving in the opposite direction will not happen. Canada will find out the hard way when businesses and jobs all start leaving for the U.S.

#18 Turbo on 12.17.17 at 2:16 pm

“The legislation being passed will add between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion to the American deficit by irresponsibly lowering federal revenues without cutting expenses.”

Trump has already tipped his hat at his next target – eliminating tens of thousands of regulations. These reductions will enable him to eliminate entire government departments, drastically reducing government spending. Those laid off workers will move right into private sector employment because -remember- “…there are now more jobs available in the US than there are applicants to fill them.”

The wave of new employment will fill social security coffers to overflowing, and drain the most important workers -specifically Doctors, Scientists & Engineers- from Canada as America -once again- becomes “the place to be” while here at home, T2 is raising taxes on job-creating businesses, Doctors, and entrepreneurs.
And calling them all tax cheats while he does it.

Canada is so f*cked it’s not even funny.

#19 Renter's Revenge! on 12.17.17 at 2:17 pm

“The next administration will have to gut spending, which could mean social unrest, or add a big new tax burden to staunch the red ink – which will shrink the economy and throw millions out of work.

I’m starting to suspect Donald Trump is the Bitcoin guy.”

============

Do you mean he’s counting on inflation to devalue the dollar and by extension the debt?

#20 Anne Wilson on 12.17.17 at 2:19 pm

Not a Trump fan but he’s not an idiot. He has cut billions in government spending so saying the corporate tax cuts will affect the USA for years and the next government will play catch up doesn’t make sense. Who got the USA in this mess? Sure as hell wasn’t Trump. No matter what he does, it can never be as bad as Obama. People just didn’t rake him over the coals the way they do with Trump but he was an a..h… and did more damage to the USA than most presidents before him.

#21 Debtslavecreator on 12.17.17 at 2:21 pm

The tax reform is horrible but nonetheless still better than the dumo-crats who just want to steal a la Liberal/Marx
Trump is a total idiot, narcissist moron but at least he is pro business and that is the most critical aspect in a us president
No matter who is in office and what they do, the tax cuts, as poorly designed as they are, simply give us another 2-3 years of time to prepare for what will be a disastrous 2020-2025
Just in time for tens of millions of boomers and a large public sector retiree shake down
Stagflationary depression it is and it’s srill good times folks. Totalitarian government is here already and you haven’t seen anything yet
Trump at least puts a check on what other socialist countries can do to finish destroying their economies – Trump is a disaster and yes this tax plan is poorly designed but at least he’s not part of the globalist neoliberal gang taking orders from the crooks at the UN like some people in Ottawa and queens park are
Long DOW / renting and hope to pick up some PMs in next 2-3 months

#22 Ex Pat Canuck on 12.17.17 at 2:23 pm

I wonder how many of the 1.5 million ex pat canucks living and working in the formerly united states are planning on moving home after the draconian measures the toddler king is putting in place here? They are certainly giving us plenty of incentives to pluck up the courage to move home to a society that cares so much more more for it’s citizens than they do here south of the border. You think you have a housing crisis now, what happens if/when a million+ canucks come back home and actually have money to buy a house? And the money to pay taxes for wonderful perks like health care that is actually cheaper than paying medical insurance here? The mind boggles at the thought of an immigration crisis triggered by Canadian citizens returning home to stay. Could be fun!

#23 M4l on 12.17.17 at 2:29 pm

The States will continue to attract talent and the brain drain will continue.

#24 Penny Henny on 12.17.17 at 2:30 pm

First you say “They don’t need lower axes, and are unlikely to shovel the savings into creating more jobs.”

Then you say “It’s a huge incentive to move to the States for any company that’s been thinking about it, taking jobs along with it.”

Where are the workers for these new jobs coming from? Are they at full employment or not? If they are then this would result in inflation, lots of it.
Or maybe all the employees will be robots.

#25 justaksing on 12.17.17 at 2:31 pm

They don’t need lower axes, and are unlikely to shovel the savings into creating more jobs.”

Garth, were you chopping firewood and shoveling snow before writing this?

#26 Ace Goodheart on 12.17.17 at 2:35 pm

Just cruising kijiji looking for some respectable classic steel to add to the ever growing collection.

Quite interested and almost a bit shocked to note that many people are now asking for bitcoin in payment for their classic cars. I wonder if this has anything to do with avoiding declaring the capital gain on the sale?

#27 Dzh on 12.17.17 at 2:37 pm

Garth forgot the 10k cap on SALT deductions, which limits dems who until now have been forcing red states to subsidize blue state profligacy. Blues forced reds to pay taxes with the Obamacare penalties. This is their comeuppance.

This bill will also force the hands of future congresses to enact entitlement reform. Remember that whole thing where Paul Ryan was pushing grandma off a cliff? Well sooner or later America will have to have an actual adult conversation about Medicare / SS. Record revenues collected this year and still in the red…

#28 Joe Schmoe on 12.17.17 at 2:38 pm

US: Do less with less
CAN: Do less with more

I would rather have my money in my pocket than JT/Dirty Bill’s.

It simply costs us too much to have a government.

#29 Stan Brooks on 12.17.17 at 2:42 pm

US is everything that Canada under corrupted incompetent liberal elitists is not.

Just look at the stubborn, headstrong wild bill and the clueless fancy socks apologetic T2 – our ‘leaders’

There is no recovery from this one.

#30 Dzh on 12.17.17 at 2:46 pm

Oh, and the only US constituency that cares about servicing government debt is paleocons… the others either have sanctimonious or mercenary reasons for endlessly leveraging the country’s reserve currency status for more stuff in the present. If you’re wondering why they don’t just raise taxes, look at the exodus from IL and the coming junk rating they’ll be getting…

#31 Long-Time Lurker on 12.17.17 at 2:50 pm

Here, Smokey. The truth is out there:

Glowing Auras and ‘Black Money’: The Pentagon’s Mysterious U.F.O. Program

By HELENE COOPER, RALPH BLUMENTHAL and LESLIE KEAN DEC. 16, 2017

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html

2 Navy Airmen and an Object That ‘Accelerated Like Nothing I’ve Ever Seen’

By HELENE COOPER, LESLIE KEAN and RALPH BLUMENTHAL DEC. 16, 2017

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/unidentified-flying-object-navy.html

#32 Micah Osborne on 12.17.17 at 2:50 pm

So with inflation going up, could now be the time to step into the precious metals marketplace and increase holdings to 5-10% allocations?

Of course not. — Garth

#33 Smartalox on 12.17.17 at 2:52 pm

Well, this corporate tax cut, along with the recent revocation of Net Neutrality will do much to see large information tech companies return their operations to US shores.

Deducting the cost of equipment and facilities may be a push to modernize existing factories (Where outdated production facilities and the high cost of modernization helped drive industries to China and India), but in order to get the credit, you still have to spend the money.

Meanwhile, a lower Canadian dollars might allow you to spend less money in the first place, and access pools of heavily indebted workers who might be less likely to complain about dodgy working conditions.

Also, Canadian industries like film and media will do better with a lower Canadian dollar, also tourism, and primary industries, like timber, mining and petroleum all do better with a lower dollar.

The trick is to roll with the punches: you’re not going to beat the system, so you might as well plan to make the best of it.

#34 Noname 2 on 12.17.17 at 2:58 pm

In light of those predictions, would you tweak the allocation of Canadian vs US equities to take advantage of the rising US market?

#35 Prairieboy43 on 12.17.17 at 3:03 pm

Miami looking better & better. Or Grand Cayman?
PB43

#36 Ace Goodheart on 12.17.17 at 3:19 pm

Way I see these tax cuts in the USA is they are very good for me and for anyone else who has set up their income stream based on how the wealthy earn their money (remember I told everyone to do this?).

I like to earn my income off of dividends and capital gains. These tax cuts allow me to do that to an even greater extent. Do I care if the tax cuts also bankrupt the USA and cause future USA governments to have to tax the crap out of the American middle classes to catch up? No, I do not. Why would I care about that?

What I am really worried about right now is this crazy undercurrent of “it’s not fair” that is developing in Canada. I am reading all these stories in the papers about how Canadian corporations and in particular big banks, are able to pay 1 dollar in tax for every 3.5 dollars in tax paid by the middle class working person.

The papers appear to be of the opinion that this is a bad thing? I am like, wait a minute. That is how I earn my income! Of course I am taxed less than people who work. I make my money off dividends and capital gains. I ape the wealthy. They never tax themselves! That is why their children are always put into power and control our governments. I have built my financial stability on this.

This is why Wild Bill is such a moron and really has to go. He is making people notice this. No one ever complained before. Now that he is finance minister, everyone is starting to notice these things.

The government created the small business tax exemptions for a reason. It was so the wealthy (and people like me who have figured out how to earn their money as the wealthy do) could continue to pay about 1/4 of the income tax that the middle class pay, while appearing to treat working people “fairly”. That was the whole point of the small business tax exemptions and special treatment. To throw a bone to the population.

Wild Bill just comes along and trashes all of that, then sits there, wealthy trust fund kid married to a billionaire heiress, and pisses everyone off.

Bill is even harming his own group now (the ultra rich). If he’s not careful, some maverick government movement will get started and for the first time in history, the wealthy actually will get taxed the same as the rest of us.

Which is bad for me. Of course because my income is mostly off my investments and consists of dividends and capital gains, I am able to just move my assets elsewhere. Why own Canadian securities when they are taxing the crap out of the companies?

#37 Still employed in AB on 12.17.17 at 3:29 pm

Can someone explain to me why we have any exposure to Canadian equities. We are so F*cked!!!

#38 Lost...but not leased on 12.17.17 at 3:34 pm

Perhaps T2 is Canada’s answer for Obama?

With little if any confidence to the contrary
….I think T2 agenda is to finish of T1’s work set in motion decades ago..and turn Canada into something between Cuba and Sweden..a quasi- communist country.

T2 has shown no qualms in voicing his admiration for dictatorships, via their ability to change policy on a dime( ie when natives get restless declare martial law like T1 did in early 1970’s ).

Turdeau and Moroneau seem to be disciples of Leon Helmsley school of diplomacy..Taxes are for the little people.

Communism version 1.0…. 2.0…etc….. has always made full allowance for a mega-rich ruling class oligarchy that actually transcends borders and establishes full allowance for their existence.

The Cold War and all its Stalinesque military posturing was a bad B movie..the real game was Trotsky style invoked cultural marxism and ponzi scheme economiccs..even worse as it works in slow patient stealth fashion.

In other words…Turdeau and Moroneau attitude is they and their “trust fund pimp “cronies have classic communistic entitlement, …..with “1%” exemption from whatever CRA imposes on the remaining 99%.

(Trump situation is much different)

PS: I wish this was a joke, but again no confidence to the contrary.

#39 Gulf Breeze on 12.17.17 at 3:40 pm

Due to blind self ignorance or a willful fascist bent, the neo-neo-cons are dismantling the administrative state.

Comparisons can be drawn between Obama and Gorbachev. Obama presided over the collapse of American style capitalism. (Lehman Crisis) He rescued the U.S from a truly dire fate. And Gorbachev did his best to salvage what was left of Russia post Soviet style Communist collapse.

Then along came Yeltsin who presided over the rape of Russia. Trump and his minions are going to do the same damn thing in the U.S.

And will the Democrats, as we now know them, play the same role they do so often–mopping up after the party? Perhaps. But, if there is tremendous unrest, the likes of which we have already seen down there, it is much more likely, all pretence of democracy vanishes and the U.S. becomes a full on military dictatorship.

And Bitcoin…??? Pfffffttttt. The govts are letting Bitcoin prototype, make all the major mistakes – and then there is going to be a massive takedown, generated by a few insider whales dumping their holdings on the same day.

The governments won’t be able to control it but they sure can control their citizens by forbidding payment in Bitcoin. I watched the documentary on it the other night. Bunch of brilliant idiot libertarians who don’t do logical follow through very well. I’ve got gold miners.

#40 BC_Doc on 12.17.17 at 3:43 pm

What would Harper do?

I’m starting to miss the guy!

#41 Gulf Breeze on 12.17.17 at 3:49 pm

#36

Ace Goodheart,

Lord am I glad I don’t share your social Darwinist ideology. It’s based on a flawed “only the strong survive,” model that WAS in vogue and is still popular among those who don’t keep up.

In social groups those who are the most empathetic and courageous are the leaders. Those with the most social capital survive.

Oh, and btw, Ayn Rand died in rather pitiful circumstances, reliant on the state for healthcare. In a tribal society, she would have been pitched off a cliff.

#42 Richard Thorncroft on 12.17.17 at 3:56 pm

“When the wind of change blows, some people build walls, others build windmills.” ancient Chinese proverb

“You can’t handcuff the wind.” R. Thorncroft

available at:
https://itunes.apple.com/us/album/you-cant-handcuff-the-wind-single/1229950419

Rich

#43 Dolce Vita on 12.17.17 at 4:00 pm

#33 Smartalox

Provided that Trump doesn’t rip up NAFTA.

#44 Tsoubouchi welfare diet on 12.17.17 at 4:06 pm

Trump can always hire Mike Harris & Tsoubouchi to tell American welfare recipients that they can live on a diet that even prisoners of war aren’t allowed to suffer under.

Meanwhile, those 80 and 90 storey condo towers in downtown Toronto go taller and taller.

#45 45north on 12.17.17 at 4:13 pm

I’m starting to suspect Donald Trump is the Bitcoin guy.</i?

Danielle DiMartino Booth: at the 19:00 minute mark: talking about block chain technology: “it scares me that central bankers are studying it very closely to figure out precisely how it works. So that when the time comes, they can march right in and do an outright monetization of the debt. They’re going to be controlling our spending using the block chain technology.”

http://www.howestreet.com/2017/11/22/bubbles-capital-risk-and-the-panic-building/

this would be Bitcoin backed by the US government

#46 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.17 at 4:14 pm

#41 Gulf Breeze on 12.17.17 at 3:49 pm
#36

Ace Goodheart,

Lord am I glad I don’t share your social Darwinist ideology. It’s based on a flawed “only the strong survive,” model that WAS in vogue and is still popular among those who don’t keep up.

In social groups those who are the most empathetic and courageous are the leaders. Those with the most social capital survive.

Oh, and btw, Ayn Rand died in rather pitiful circumstances, reliant on the state for healthcare. In a tribal society, she would have been pitched off a cliff.
————
Amen.
Money means power and power is the most powerful opiod known to mankind.
This addiction has the potential to destroy civilizations.
But we vilify alcoholics who just wanna escape the harsh realities of life for a few precious hours.
Right, Smokie?

#47 crossbordershopper on 12.17.17 at 4:15 pm

I dont understand why Canadians think they know American tax law, they barely know their own. In the USA, as an American Citizen, you can claim $250,000(us dollars) as a principal home exemption, if married filing jointly, like most couples, its $500K usd exemption.
assuming you live in 2 of last 5 years in the home. Believe it or not, most americans own more than one home. There cheaper and you can write off the mortgage interest. In Canada, yes, you get a lifetime personal exemption, so in Vancouver and burbs or Toronto or burbs its kinda big deal. In 70% of the Canadian population, everywhere from NFLD,NS,NB,Quebec(i here montreal is trending higher, but outside montreal, is dead), North of Barrie, to James Bay, Manitoba, SK, (record number of homes in saskatoon for sale), most of Alberta and Northern BC.
I would gladly, take $250K usd exemption in the us, plus write off the interest annually then try to play the market in Southern Ontario. I havent crunched the numbers but i suspect the US is better off.

#48 Ace Goodheart on 12.17.17 at 4:17 pm

RE: #41 Gulf Breeze on 12.17.17 at 3:49 pm
#36

“Ace Goodheart,

Lord am I glad I don’t share your social Darwinist ideology. It’s based on a flawed “only the strong survive,” model that WAS in vogue and is still popular among those who don’t keep up.

In social groups those who are the most empathetic and courageous are the leaders. Those with the most social capital survive.

Oh, and btw, Ayn Rand died in rather pitiful circumstances, reliant on the state for healthcare. In a tribal society, she would have been pitched off a cliff.”

Thanks.

This is a finance blog. What people talk about here is how to make money and how to avoid getting burned while trying to make money.

I figured out a method of making money that works. This method allows me to not have to work. It’s a simple method. I view every dollar as a little economic machine, that should be able to net me around 12 to 14 cents per year.

I spend as little as possible, investing everything I earn. I look for value everywhere. I always do the math. I know how to avoid high tax consumer items, I understand that a car can cost anywhere from 20 cents per kilometer up into the 3 to 4 dollars per kilometer to operate, depending on what car you buy (you want cheap, reliable cars that are good on fuel and cheap to insure, and that you can get inexpensive parts for).

I was out on my own at age 17. The streets are a great place to learn the rules of life. We didn’t really have many academic arguments. Our arguments were usually over things like toilet paper (a commodity when you are homeless) and who stole whose food. That lesson taught me one thing, and it taught me good. Poverty is horrible. I made it my life goal to get as far away from it as possible and to ensure I never had to go back.

So, yeah I focus my energies on getting the best value for everything I spend, and getting the best value out of every dollar I invest, and paying the least amount of tax.

For those of us who can have the luxury of looking at life through the rose coloured glasses of academia and philosophy, more power to you.

I look at it through the cold hard glare of survival instincts and I know what happens when you loose control of that.

#49 Keith in Rio on 12.17.17 at 4:34 pm

While people in greater Vancouver are foregoing significant amounts of money on resales of homes, versus what they may have garnered 6-9 months ago, it’s really no big deal.

If you were an industrialist from a large country on the other side of the Pacific Ocean who embezzled, or otherwise surreptitiously moved 7 figures out of country under the noses of your communist overlords, you just let 3-5 years pass with yourself or relatives living in the property and then cash out, rinse and repeat, with a different house.

If you net 70-80-90% of your tax free ill gotten funds (or 120-130-140% due to the recent run up) it’s a lot better than getting nothing at all by leaving your money in the country.

If you are one of the poor local souls who bought in because of FOMO, it hurts even more.

#50 For those about to flop... on 12.17.17 at 4:34 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Burnaby.

Don’t worry about run down old dumps having a hard time selling this 2016 build has yet to find its mark.

6843 Salisbury Ave,Burnaby.

Paid 1.87 June 2016 Ass 1.45

Asking 1.85

Fancy photography and new product is not enough to help these guys after purchasing at the peak, but if inventory dries up their property will stand out more.

All is not lost,but maybe a portion is…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/6843-salisbury-avenue

#51 jess on 12.17.17 at 4:36 pm

The Indian Income Tax Department has visited bitcoin exchanges across the country seeking to identify users.
ADVERTISEMENT

The widespread operation is being carried out over suspicions of tax evasion by exchange customers, the Press Trust of India states. The agency visited nine cryptocurrency exchanges in cities including Delhi, Pune, Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Kochi.

According to tax department officials, the surveys – conducted under section 133A of the Indian Income Tax Act – were performed in order to collect the identities of digital currency investors, their transactions, the bank accounts used, emails, and other data.

The survey teams were reportedly armed with an assortment of software tools to capture exchange data, including “cloning and mirror imaging,” and identified the accounts of a number of high-net-worth individuals…”

https://www.coindesk.com/indias-tax-department-collects-user-data-at-multiple-bitcoin-exchanges/

the IRS. A U.S. court has ordered Coinbase to turn over identifying information on 14,000 accounts. The onus is on investors to report gains to the IRS.Nov 30, 2017

=
loans backed by investment portfolios
The rise of rich man’s subprime
http://fortune.com/2014/12/10/securities-based-lending-banks/
By Joshua Brown December 10, 2014

Beware of executives who depend on share-backed loans
https://www.ft.com/content/6dc098a6-e177-11e7-8f9f-de1c2175f5ce
Securities-Backed Loans Raise Revenue, Concerns
July 27, 2017 12:55 p.m. ET

https://www.barrons.com/articles/securities-backed-loans-raise-revenue-concerns-1501174558

#52 This just in ..... on 12.17.17 at 4:37 pm

The Bitcoin miners union @ “theminersunion.com” (I’m not kidding, yet) has announced that effective Sunday, Dec 17 at 1am EST, all work at the mines will cease. The work stoppage is in protest of the US’ rescinding of net neutrality and ABC’s cancellation of The Big Bang Theory. The miners, aka “aeries” voted 99% in favour of the strike action.

Network sources claim the show was no longer profitable, as viewership had declined to their original fanbase of nerds and military cadets. A replacement show has yet to be announced but the reality series “How to meet a girl just like Mom” will move to that time slot.

#53 Keith in Rio on 12.17.17 at 4:38 pm

If Bitcoin was really something that was of value and really needed in our society the Fed would have hired a couple of MIT mathematicians and a couple of coders to create it.

But it was not, nor is it.

It is an totally unregulated and deliberately constructed FRAUD designed to enrich a few and injure millions.

Seriously, it’s marketed using an image of a COIN…..colored GOLD……and you are told that you have to MINE it like some precious metal…..ROTFLMAO !!!

PT Barnum was right.

#54 jess on 12.17.17 at 4:39 pm

US tax bill imposes steep levy on overseas earnings – Financial Times
https://www.ft.com/content/789e69f6-e1ea-11e7-a8a4-0a1e63a52f9c
2 days ago – Republicans will impose a steeper-than-expected levy on the trillions of dollars of earnings held by US companies overseas as Donald Trump’s party … of the package they will impose a 15.5 per cent one-off tax on offshore cash, coupled with an 8 per cent levy on less liquid assets, a Republican aide said.

#55 For those about to flop... on 12.17.17 at 4:39 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Burnaby.

This nondescript Burnaby home appears to be not getting a new owner for Christmas.

1851 Moore ave, Burnaby.

Paid 1.6 March 2016 Ass 1.52

Asking 1.58

Hopefully they can get a deal done that satisfies the current owner.

The realtor will still make a decent commission, but when I contacted them yesterday all they wanted for Christmas was their two front teeth…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/1851-moore-avenue

#56 down_boy on 12.17.17 at 4:45 pm

If this story is true, TD Bank blows. Revolt until they fix this.
http://www.newsweek.com/ups-loses-846k-inheritance-offer-refund-shipping-fee-748764
They recommended a bank draft for security? And now won’t return funds due to their lost bank draft. Why the people didn’t take it in diamonds or use crypto is hindsight. Is this the new Big Canadian Bank scam? I will certainly think twice.

#57 Ronaldo on 12.17.17 at 4:46 pm

Speaking of crypto and the money that is being raised by the ICO’s related to these things make the pyramid schemes of the 70’s look pale in comparison.

Here is one of the latest that I ran across called NAGA. They recently held a sale of Naga Coins hoping to raise 30 million and as of end of sale on December 15th at midnite, they managed to raise 50 million bucks from a little over 63,000 participants.

All you needed was an Iphone, an email and a Visa card and you were away to the races. This is being targeted towards the milennials who love to play games on their Iphones. Anyway the shares of these coins will start trading on the German exchange on December 22nd.

The coins went on sale for a buck each a short while ago. Two of the advisors for this company are also involved with Bitcoin and one of them being the one and only Roger Ver aka Bitcoin Jesus. He was one of the first to buy bitcoins back in 2009 for a buck as well.

Apparently he bought 25000 of them at the time. Right now I see that bitcoin is trading at over 19000 and will be trading on the CME in a few hours from now so that will be interesting. Will be interesting to see how this all turns out.

https://www.nagaico.com/

Here is what one blog has to say about it.

https://valueandopportunity.com/2017/11/17/the-naga-group-nagacoin-ico-double-pumping-the-cryptocraze/#comments

Wonder if it’s time to mortgage the house yet? mmmmm

#58 Ace Goodheart on 12.17.17 at 4:49 pm

Re: #46 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.17 at 4:14 pm

“Amen.
Money means power and power is the most powerful opiod known to mankind.”

You guys have this sooooooooooo incredibly wrong.

Money does not mean power.

Money means freedom and the right to self determination.

Western societies are built on this, with the people who benefit from it, not even knowing that they are benefiting, or what is benefiting them. It’s why we can afford to be offended at everything and have all of our special interests. We don’t have to care about day to day survival (like 99% of the rest of the world does).

Human life is for the most part a short, brutal, painful, soul destroying and illusion shattering experience, for 99% of the people who are born here.

The world we live in is designed to make you into a slave. It is set up that way. Birth to grave, you have no free will, no right to self determination and no ability to control your life.

Figuring out how to control money and make it work for you, changes that. Most people never get there. Or maybe they do, but it is for a few years before they die and they are too old to enjoy it.

As Westerners, we have been given this incredible gift of being able to, through hard work and good financial management, make ourselves wealthy and in doing so, self determine our own lives.

It is not power. It is freedom.

#59 Lost...but not leased on 12.17.17 at 4:57 pm

USA= original Communist Country?

A starting point may be that Abe Lincoln was pen pals with Karl Marx.

So what?

If one actually delves into a comparative study of USA vs Canada…you can’t make this stuff up.

The “United States of America”(USA) ultimate manifestation could have been each state exercising their right to secede from the collective body and effectively becoming a sovereign nation. The USA at the time was simply a co-op ..like a strata..whose members
would act as a collective should any member require military to intervene.

The Southern states had been relegated as literal slaves to the Northern states..economically exploited and taxed to greater degrees. The Southern states did not desire war..simply a political divorce …aka autonomy.

The secession(aka remember Quebec attempts) by Southern states would not be tolerated by the Northern exploiters…hence the US Civil War.

Behind the scenes, even prior to this, there were overarching agendas to ultimately cobble together what we now identify as USA..ie the Mexican American war (1846-1848), whereby , prior to the US Civil War..the US acquired their South West territories(ie Texas, New Mexico, California etc. from Mexico.)

GOOGLE the fact that Russia sent Navy ships to the West and East coast of the USA in support of Lincoln.

Under Lincoln…Seward purchased Alaska from Russia in 1867..and BC ” in between ” Alaska and Cascadia….had Sir James Douglas rode up to Yale BC and claim BC for “Her majesty” in 1871(4 years later..6th Province in Confederation)..while BC neighbours (ie Alberta)were simply territories till carved up into Provinces later.

Point is….connect the dots….ignore court historians…..Communism in it’s most primal Marxian manifestation occurred in USA…..not Russia.

#60 OttawaMike on 12.17.17 at 4:59 pm

So America has no bloated government?

National guard, marines,army navy air force, CIA, BAFTA, FBI, DEA, Vast quasi public/private military industrial complex industries all supported w tax dollars, a prison industry that employs 10’s of thousands. Etc.etc.

Yeah they are different than Canada.

#61 Dr. Zhivago on 12.17.17 at 5:00 pm

From Science and Nature, issue 47

Scientists at the Don Rickles Institute of Geneology have discovered that expression of the gene for delayed gratification requires two X chromosomes, proving the long-held suspicion that it is a predominantly female trait.

Efforts the suppress the gene’s expression were unsuccessful, but it was shown that liberal doses of ethanol increased the permeability of the outer ego boundary, thus proving the theory that candy is dandy, but liquor is quicker.

#62 FredfromKitchener on 12.17.17 at 5:09 pm

It’s amusing to see how many of the people making comments missed Garth’s last sentence.
While it’s dangerous to predict the future, I think Garth is right. The Donald is a bubble. Be ready for the bursting because if you are not, yer going to be hurt.

#63 down_boy on 12.17.17 at 5:14 pm

Goodbye Amazon.ca
Hello Amazon.com
That was an easy jurisdiction switch. Now to re-price the product line.
Click.
(It’s all made from the same vat in HK anyway.)

#64 Andrew Woburn on 12.17.17 at 5:22 pm

It’s not just us who are worried about US tax reform. At least for now, we have NAFTA.

“After all, Trump’s plans will have a knock-on effect throughout the world and will have a long-term effect on German and European economic policies.

… One doesn’t need to be a prophet to predict that the United States is about to be flooded with foreign direct investment. American companies, meanwhile, are likely to invest more at home and to repatriate money that has been stashed away abroad.

The rest of the world will be left holding the tab. On the plus side, to be sure, the plan refrains from introducing a blanket border-adjustment tax. Such a misguided measure would have slapped a special tax of 20 percent on all imports. Now it will only be applied to subsidiaries of foreign companies and their parent companies. From now on, for example, the BMW factory in Spartanburg, South Carolina, won’t be able to deduct parts deliveries from company headquarters in Munich. This will accomplish two goals: For one thing, more money will flow into the state coffers, thus mitigating loss of revenue from the tax cuts. For another, foreign suppliers will become less attractive to American companies. As a result, companies like BMW and Siemens with operations in the U.S., it is hoped, will end up ordering parts and supplies from American companies.”

Trump Tax Plan Worries Europe

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/donald-trump-tax-plan-worries-europe-a-1182383.html

#65 TurnerNation - srlsy? on 12.17.17 at 5:23 pm

Wouldn’t it suck if you were wrong TurnerNation ?

#66 Andrew Woburn on 12.17.17 at 5:25 pm

If you’ve just mortgaged your house to buy Bitcoin ….

don’t read this.

– North Korea ‘hacked crypto-currency exchange in South’

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42378638

#67 Jas on 12.17.17 at 5:37 pm

Folks
Just kick the effing T2 govt. at the earliest opportunity if you care about Canada.
These bunch of morons know nothing about running a country.
Just kick ’em OUT.

#68 M.L.K. (ghost of) on 12.17.17 at 5:44 pm

#59 Lost………
The Southern states had been relegated as literal slaves to the Northern states..economically exploited and taxed to greater degrees.
………………………

I wasn’t aware that the literal slaves paid any taxes at all. Did they not have tax shelters on those plantations? I really hope you and your spouse play “safe”.

#69 LivinLarge on 12.17.17 at 5:45 pm

Tax cuts for the wealthy aren’t obscene, tax cuts “ONLY” for the wealthy are obscene.

#70 Andrew Woburn on 12.17.17 at 5:49 pm

I apparently misled some blog dogs the other day re my post about Bitcoin in which I described the governor of the Australian central bank as being an old white guy who doesn’t get Bitcoin. Of course he does. I should have added /sarc off.

Here are some thoughts from a couple of younger white guys who happen to be computer science whizzes.

“Five myths about bitcoin. No, the currency isn’t beyond the reach of the law, and it won’t replace cash.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/five-myths/five-myths-about-bitcoin/2017/12/15/7a506742-e044-11e7-8679-a9728984779c_story.html?undefined=&utm_term=.d727f7d7629f&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

#71 Robert B on 12.17.17 at 5:50 pm

I find it incredible that Trump was always bullish for US equities but nobody believed it except for a few on the board . Foresight is always a part of investing. It separates the men from the boys. And today that will set you apart as a star in the history books.

Bravo to the ones that called it right almost a year before the writers on this board. Awesome gains were made during that year. Yahoooo!!!

Why didn’t anyone believe Trump a deal maker would not be able to pass this Tax reform . Low weightings in US equities might have hurt most if you listened to the so called experts. But at least that there is some in a balanced portfolio. Otherwise some would have been running to the experts..

All the best my friends and enjoy the ride.

#72 Bezengy on 12.17.17 at 5:58 pm

In my life I’ve only known three politicians who actually delivered a balanced budget. Mike Harris (provincial), Martin and Harper (Federal). The rest are full of crap. They can’t balance the budget because the population in going up, or down, Roosevelt this, Keynesian that, all BS. Just balance the budget is all I ask, as should all Canadians.

#73 Gurdeep Manpreet on 12.17.17 at 5:59 pm

Trudeau is way more intelligent than any American politician and hence Canada’s economy is much stronger and companies much more innovative.

Housing prices here show that. This is why Canadians can afford higher home prices.

#74 Robert B on 12.17.17 at 6:06 pm

“The legislation being passed will add between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion to the American deficit by irresponsibly lowering federal revenues without cutting expenses”

What a concept. Bring jobs back to the US . At least corporations and US citizens will get something in return for $150 billion a years. You can bet your bottom dollar that tax revenue from capital gains from all the buyers of US equities will help cushion that small cost for the biggest GDP in the world. Pocket change if you ask me….

And better yet , Obama almost doubled the US debt by $9 trillion dollars and what did anyone in the US get???
Nothing….Corporations left the US in droves to cheaper taxes countries. Is the Trump the only guy who hears that sucking sound of jobs leaving. Canada are you listening.?????????

Trump will be one of the best presidents yet for the US.
He’ll be up there with Roosevelt and Reagan. Pro business and country first. I just wish he would keep his Twitter feed a little more quieter.

#75 Fran Deck Sr. on 12.17.17 at 6:09 pm

Trump knows what he’s doing and you don’t.
Tax cuts increase government revenues by stimulating the economy and putting money in people’s pockets which is where it should be. Only a liberal would consider tax cuts to be a bad idea.

If Trump ran for Prime Minister in this corrupt third world country he would win in a landslide just like he did last year and just like he will in 2020.

#76 BS on 12.17.17 at 6:18 pm

The legislation being passed will add between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion to the American deficit by irresponsibly lowering federal revenues without cutting expenses. To stave off crisis or sustain the value of its currency, Washington will be forced into even harsher decisions down the road than would have been the case pre-Trump.

That assumes there are no economic growth associated with this tax plan which is absurd. Tax revenues will increase with this plan over the long term coupled with reduced regulations. There will be more businesses in the US paying taxes, more working tax payers at higher wages and higher earnings for all existing businesses. Economics 101. The next 3 years are going to be epic for US growth and prosperity. In Canada T2 is doing the opposite.

Actually it does assume growth. The estimates comes from the CBO. — Garth

#77 Andrew Woburn on 12.17.17 at 6:22 pm

#59 Lost…but not leased on 12.17.17 at 4:57 pm

Point is….connect the dots….ignore court historians…..Communism in it’s most primal Marxian manifestation occurred in USA…..not Russia.
====================

I got sort of lost in this. I assume you know that, during the American Civil War, Russia was a monarchy.

Nevertheless it is true that the more benign forms of Communism were well established in North America before the Russian Revolution, mostly as a reaction to appalling treatment of workers. For a while, Nanaimo was home to a leading Communist organization, not surprising in view of the numbers of miners maimed and killed almost every year in Island coal mines.

I guy I met grew up in a fishing village on the west coast of the Island and told me all the fishermen he grew up around considered themselves to be communists. They had no contact with or sympathy for Russia or Stalinist communism.

What Americans fear as “Communist” is Stalinism not Marxism. Marx was a brilliantly original thinker. To the best of my knowledge, he never advocated violence as believed capitalism would eventually collapse under its own weight. The jury is still out on that one.

#78 FredfromKitchener on 12.17.17 at 6:34 pm

Bezengy, you are spot on. The most important thing any government can do is balance the budget. Especially important in good times, like now. Which is why I think T1 and T2 are epic failures. Not to mention Miss Wynne.

Fran Deck Sr, I think we are going to need some lubricant. Your head is stuck. Quite far.

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.17 at 6:37 pm

Ace Goodheart.
Please change your handle to Ace Coldheart.

#80 Danny on 12.17.17 at 6:47 pm

dept …depT….dePT……dEPT…..DEPT……when economy is good……is basically short term gain for few…..long term pain for many.
Garth your point is well taken…..future legislatures are screwed.
The existing Trump folks will be long gone……when the reality of a bankrupt government comes to the surface from the swamp.
Don’t believe that corporations that will benefit from these huge tax savings…. They will not help the American coffers…..or people.
Nothing ties tax savings to guarantee that money will stay in America.
Credit system would have been more reliable……..Help Americans first….prove it then…….save taxes through a credit method not a “we trust you to reinvest in America Method ……with no strings attached ”
More likely they will take those savings overseas…and more to go to offshore accounts.
Who will know? …..the system doesn’t track it and no one will ever know.
As with Trumps tax reports (which are a secret)……auditing laws are weak……many secrets and alot of “hush money ”
Mafia course 101.

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.17 at 6:56 pm

#60 OttawaMike on 12.17.17 at 4:59 pm
So America has no bloated government?

National guard, marines,army navy air force, CIA, BAFTA, FBI, DEA, Vast quasi public/private military industrial complex industries all supported w tax dollars, a prison industry that employs 10’s of thousands. Etc.etc.

Yeah they are different than Canada.
———–
So true. thanks pal.
But I think Coldheart’s not gonna like it.

#82 Bhad Bhabie on 12.17.17 at 6:58 pm

#’s45,58 Ace Goodheart
I figured out a method of making money that works. This method allows me to not have to work.
Money does not mean power…..ad nauseum………It is not power. It is freedom.
_——————————–

“Money and time are the heaviest burdens of life, and the unhappiest of all mortals are those who have more of either than they know how to use.” Samuel Johnson

CASH ME OUSSIDE HOWBOW DAH

#83 akashic record on 12.17.17 at 7:07 pm

“Love him or loathe him” should be indifferent for “a numbers guy”. Just like for FBI employees and other career government bureaucrats.

You made plenty of Trump-related predictions since he entered the race for the presidency.

How would you rate your Trump-prediction performance now that he has been in the office for over a year?

Spot on. – Garth

#84 Lost...but not leased on 12.17.17 at 7:27 pm

#68 mlk

feel free to research the issue…

Unlike Hollywood stereotypes..Slaves(from Africa) were admittedly bought, (many at a premium)as a means to secure a workforce..but also competed with the existing domestic workforce.

Many of the southern plantation owners were oligarchs from the North…..so we have a (2) competing labour sources. The stereotype of plantation owners abusing slaves defies logic, given the fiscal investment…whereas in the North..where many factories using southern sourced raw materials were located, were importing the Irish..even children..to work as the actual unpaid and disposable slaves.

Lincolns’ Civil War masqueraded as a means to end slavery..when nothing was further from the truth. The abolition of slavery was simply propoganda to mask what was economic warfare against the South…to cripple and subsequently conquer the South and keep them in the fold.

Abe Lincoln QUOTE:

…..”If I could save the union without freeing any slave I would do it,….and if I could save it by freeing all the slaves I would do it,…and if I could save it by freeing some and leaving others alone I would also do that “.

In creating the USA,and taxation… this harkens back to the unfortunate choice made whereby they went for Free Trade vs a Tariff system…..as Tariff revenue supported Gov’t programs and retained sovereignty…Free Trade did the opposite.

Typical Politician ambiguous waffling.

Your perception of reality and concurrent politically correct mileage may vary

#85 Soviet Capitalist on 12.17.17 at 7:34 pm

Garth, your views are usually sharp and correct, but I’ve yet to see a country with low taxes that has social unrest. The later usually happens in socialist paradises.
Any examples of business friendly countries that are not doing well coming to mind?

#86 Willy H on 12.17.17 at 7:48 pm

These proposed tax cuts are fiscally irresponsible not matter how you look at it. I haven’t seen analysts and investors this horny since the lead up to the World Financial Crisis of 2008. We know how well that ended.

Of course the middle class has been overlooked and will end up fiscally side-swiped by this mess if it manages to pass into law.

Never has so much been given to so few!

“If your company spends $50 million building a plant in
Windsor you get to write that massive investment off your corporate taxes gradually over the life of the factory. If you build it across the river then, thanks to Trump, you can now deduct it entirely the day you move in ….”*

Interesting, the EU has picked up on this. They are none too impressed and they have formally issued a warning to the US. Should these tax cuts come to fruition there will be economic blowback.

https://www.ft.com/content/eeb17eaa-de91-11e7-a8a4-0a1e63a52f9c

*To be fair, Southern Ontario has long lost it’s competitive edge with Michigan where workers homes cost 40-60% less than the same boxes across the border. Their wages and benefits are 20% less than a Canadian auto worker yet they still have a far better quality of life. They aren’t living in over-developed suburban hell surrounded by gridlock!

#87 akashic record on 12.17.17 at 8:05 pm

#83 akashic record on 12.17.17 at 7:07 pm

“Love him or loathe him” should be indifferent for “a numbers guy”. Just like for FBI employees and other career government bureaucrats.

You made plenty of Trump-related predictions since he entered the race for the presidency.

How would you rate your Trump-prediction performance now that he has been in the office for over a year?

Spot on. – Garth

===

Blind spot?

#88 TheSecretCode on 12.17.17 at 8:20 pm

Re: #37 Still employed in AB

Oil from Canada’s oil sands is now selling at a $27-per-barrel discount relative to WTI, the sharpest difference in more than four years.

Cenovus is already swinging (usually a last resort to pull such moves before Christmas).

Are the oil companies bringing out the axe again for Jan/Feb or this just a blip?

#89 TheSecretCode on 12.17.17 at 8:24 pm

Bitcoin CME launch was a flop…

And BTC was doing well all weekend up until 3pm – holding 19k…then boom! 1,000 USD drop. Just a touch above 18k USD at the moment.

#90 Mattl on 12.17.17 at 8:25 pm

Its amazing that anyone still believes in trickle down. Good on Garth for acknowledging that this corp tax cut will end up in profits. I can 100% guarantee that the large US corp I will work for will not go out an reinvest any tax relief – we are already insanely profitable and our 2018 planning is all about expense management and head count freezes. We have 15k employees and this cut will not result in one new job. Thats not to say we won’t add FTE’s but tax cuts flat ‘out do not drive corp hiring decisions. Wish they did, I have two open requisitions and expect neither to get filled this year.

#91 SimplyPut7 on 12.17.17 at 8:27 pm

Does this mean we will have 7 more years of Trump?

#92 rknusa on 12.17.17 at 8:31 pm

the Republicans tax reform package is what is called down here “starving the beast”

“Starving the beast” is a political strategy employed by American conservatives to limit government spending by cutting taxes, in order to deprive the federal government of revenue in a deliberate effort to force it to reduce spending. from Wikipedia

#93 bigtowne on 12.17.17 at 8:35 pm

Public Health care in Canada has for the past 20 years been overwhelmed with too much demand so now the Emergency wait time in hospitals across Ontario is the longest in Canada and the states and the last in the OECD causing patients to wait on gurneys for days at a time for a bed. Across Canada it is common for large numbers of families to go without a family doctor and wait times for seeing a “specialist” have now doubled in the last ten years. So Garth’s fantasy about public health care being a advantage in Canada is well fantasy.

The new Trudeau regime is spinning our “image and rhetoric” to show Canada as not those “pale Christians from Great Britain” but a more broadly based rainbow of incomers. However the spin goes Canada was founded by Britain and France and settled by European Christians and the backbone of our society and economy rests on our European Colonial foundations…..we clung to the mother country far too long and the vestiges of colonial capitalism are close to the surface.

#94 TheSecretCode on 12.17.17 at 8:35 pm

RBC: Canadian home buyers hurried to make deals in November ahead of impending mortgage rule change.

A surge in Toronto accounted for most of the increase.

Activity fell modestly in Vancouver for a second straight month (with such activity mostly in condos).

Activity fell in Vancouver????????????

I expected Vancouver to be going balls out prior to this rule change as you for sure will not be able to qualify for anything in Vancouver after these rules take place.

This is wild!

What the heck is happening in Vancouver RE right now?

#95 BobC on 12.17.17 at 8:37 pm

Garth, if Trump had done these 163 things FOR Canada would you feel the same way?

.http://www.wnd.com/2017/11/4621979/

That list is a joke. Mr. Trump also made it light at day and dark at night. – Garth

#96 Deplorable Dude on 12.17.17 at 8:43 pm

‘Actually it does assume growth. The estimates comes from the CBO. — Garth’

According to this CNBC report it doesn’t include growth estimates….which the Fed have just revised upwards again to 4%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/08/house-tax-reform-plan-would-raise-deficit-by-1-point-7-trillion-cbo.html

#97 Bitcoinnaire on 12.17.17 at 8:48 pm

Well.. oops! Bitcoin at $20K USD again…

Any good tax avoidance tips for those who traded on overseas, opaque and totally anonymous and decentralized exchanges with crypto coins so obscure, that the CRA isn’t even aware of their existence?

Can I just make up the numbers I want to claim for capital gains?

#98 Unhinged Trader on 12.17.17 at 8:49 pm

Bitcoin at 20K again.

Any good tax avoidance tips?

Singapore?

#99 TheSecretCode on 12.17.17 at 8:51 pm

At the end of the day, the current $27-per-barrel discount is being acutely felt in Canada’s oil industry. Kevin Birn, a director at IHS Energy in Calgary, told Bloomberg that a $25-per-barrel WCS discount translates into a loss of $20 million per day for Canada’s oil producers.

Soooo, Mr. Bank: about that life-line of credit keeping the machine afloat?

This data is ugly and the high paying oil jobs cannot be replaced with anything that pays remotely close.

#100 Ronaldo on 12.17.17 at 8:59 pm

#89 TheSecretCode on 12.17.17 at 8:24 pm

Bitcoin CME launch was a flop…

And BTC was doing well all weekend up until 3pm – holding 19k…then boom! 1,000 USD drop. Just a touch above 18k USD at the moment.
——————————————————
A total flop. As expected it would be. The herd is moving into other more enticing stuff. This thing has lasted way past its ”best before date”. It’s done. I hope you didn’t mortgage the house.

#101 Economystical on 12.17.17 at 9:00 pm

I personally welcome the Trump presidency as an opportunity to prove to the world that economystics is only way forward for the world economy. Our goal remains “a free lunch for everyone, and no one working in the kitchen”. This is only achievable when you are able to tax the population for more than they have, through the magic of compound taxes, an area in which Canada is a world leader.

The new taxes on small businesses in Canada are a perfect example of this forward thinking. Remember, as the great economysticist Barack Obama once said to a gathering of small businessmen and women, “You didn’t build it”. Truer words were never spoken by a head of state. It is the state that builds small businesses and thus the state should reap the rewards.

In the economystical model, small businesses use the roads. But who builds the roads? The state. Therefore the state should be entitled to tax small businesses enough to pay for the roads. However that is limited thinking. Why should the state not be entitle to tax small businesses even more as a reward for building the roads, and use that money to build parks, social programs, any other thing that comes to mind?

The same extension can be applied to salaries as well. After all if business didn’t build themselves then you certainly didn’t build your career. The government did that too. After all, they built the roads, the universities, transit, everything important. So through the magic of compound taxation the government is able to recover what was naturally theirs in the first place, nearly 100% of your efforts. In return everyone gets to keep enough for groceries and utopia will arrive. But we’ll tax the groceries too by taxing whoever produces them.

So I look forward to the next few years as we watch economystics flourish in Canada as stubborn old-style economics fails in the US. I will be a great time. Canada will be a beacon to the world!

#102 Yorkville Renter on 12.17.17 at 9:01 pm

This post, and the flurry of comments, is why I use a professional to manage our investments.

Some say Trump is a genius, more say he’s an idiot.
Some say we’re better off up here, others say worse off.

Me? I lean heavy “Trump is an idiot” but worry only about saving some money and enjoying life.

#103 Tony on 12.17.17 at 9:07 pm

Re: #15 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.17 at 2:09 pm

Just when Sandvine Corporation’s stock may have finally shot upward they got acquired about three months ago

#104 Ronaldo on 12.17.17 at 9:07 pm

#94 TheSecretCode

What the heck is happening in Vancouver RE right now?
——————————————————————
The chickens are coming home to roost. Well done Shysters.

#105 Bhad Bhabie on 12.17.17 at 9:24 pm

#84 Lost….
feel free to research the issue….
Abe Lincoln QUOTE:
…..”If I could save the union without freeing any slave I would do it,….and if I could save it by freeing all the slaves I would do it,…and if I could save it by freeing some and leaving others alone I would also do that “.
——_————-
Research Results:

end of the Abe Lincoln quotation:
“I have here stated my purpose according to my view of official duty; and I intend no modification of my oft-expressed personal wish that all men every where could be free.”

Wachu know

#106 TheSecretCode on 12.17.17 at 9:25 pm

Three things keeping Poloz awake at night:
1.high personal debts,
2.housing prices,
3.cryptocurrencies (even though peddling a new CAD cypto).

This guy is hilarious. Let’s get into it. These are the real things:

1. The Poloz Bubble
Juice it – M2 money supply straight up.

2. Chained to a Ponzi
Pushing credit growth at a rate faster than GDP growth (huge detachment), a textbook Ponzi scenario.

3. Refusal to ring fence Canada
All talk, no action…weak interest rate policy and few ideas regarding how to generate growth other than to print more money.

Poloz (who has considerable private sector experience from his days at BCA Research) knows full well the treacherous position in which the BoC has placed the Canadian economy. If that’s true, it’s little wonder that he is having trouble sleeping.

Why is Poloz is having trouble sleeping and why is that being admitted openly?

Are you paying attention Canada?

#107 young & foolish on 12.17.17 at 9:25 pm

Hold on with the Canada bashing Blog Dogs … do you think our country should cut taxes and then run up deficits ??? You know you want services, and in a huge space with few residents that will cost money.

We are running up deficits and raising taxes. – Garth

#108 Eyestrain on 12.17.17 at 9:31 pm

#95 BobC on 12.17.17 at 8:37 pm
Garth, if Trump had done these 163 things FOR Canada would you feel the same way?
.http://www.wnd.com/2017/11/4621979/

That list is a joke. Mr. Trump also made it light at day and dark at night. – Garth
///////////
Lying Liberal media never give Trump credit.
He also made it dark one day, and only He was brave enough to look up and see what had happened to the Sun.

#109 oncebittwiceshy on 12.17.17 at 9:33 pm

I am bemused by the hypocrites that decry trickle down economics but extol the “truths” of trickle down house prices.

You can’t build an economy by making the rich richer, but all those foreign investors of multi million dollar mansions can build the housing “economy” like no one’s business.

You’re all myopic or simply disingenuous.

#110 Mark on 12.17.17 at 9:35 pm

“At the end of the day, the current $27-per-barrel discount is being acutely felt in Canada’s oil industry. Kevin Birn, a director at IHS Energy in Calgary, told Bloomberg that a $25-per-barrel WCS discount translates into a loss of $20 million per day for Canada’s oil producers.”

And that’s with the very weak Canadian dollar helping things. Imagine how bad things will be as the housing declines accelerate and the CAD$ shoots to the moon as Canadian deflation takes hold.

The NDP and the Liberals are getting a lot of heat for their apparent “attacks” on oil industry investment, but quite frankly, the extreme differentials are screaming loud and clear, “do not invest an additional dime in Canadian O&G production!”.

“The next 3 years are going to be epic for US growth and prosperity. “

The tax plan encourages if not rewards outsourcing and offshoring. I don’t see how that could possibly contribute to the US economy or US growth. The tax plan is about as anti-growth as you could possibly get. I personally think its a grand scheme of Trump, for the tax plan to fail, and for the failure of such a plan to be used as the ‘excuse’ they can pin the upcoming stock market collapse upon.

#111 Linda on 12.17.17 at 9:36 pm

Very interesting post. Looking at it from the political angle, I’d say Mr. Trump expects to benefit from these moves, as in not be removed as President before his first term is over & I’d hazard he is making it clear he will be running for a second term as POTUS.

I agree that this new tax package with its incentive to not only buy American but invest in America leaves the Canadian government in a bind when it comes to fiscal policies. They may even be forced to – gasp! – lower taxes instead of raising them if there is to be any chance of Canada remaining competitive. Kind of hard to get tax revenue out of the unemployed.

#112 Leo Trollstoy on 12.17.17 at 9:39 pm

Trump is awesome

Always winning! Trolling snowflakes! Lol

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5a2b1110e4b022ec613b823f

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/17/trump-tax-plan-republican-victory-233947

#113 Mark on 12.17.17 at 9:42 pm

DELETED

#114 45north on 12.17.17 at 9:51 pm

Keith in Rio: If Bitcoin was really something that was of value and really needed in our society the Fed would have hired a couple of MIT mathematicians and a couple of coders to create it.

Danielle DiMartino Booth: at the 19:00 minute mark: talking about block chain technology: “it scares me that central bankers are studying it very closely to figure out precisely how it works. So that when the time comes, they can march right in and do an outright monetization of the debt. They’re going to be controlling our spending using the block chain technology.”

http://www.howestreet.com/2017/11/22/bubbles-capital-risk-and-the-panic-building/

she is a financial analyst. She worked at the US Fed. I figure the US Fed has a team of several dozen people working on it and the US banks also have their own teams. I worked for the Canadian Federal Government for 40 years. I have a sense of how large organizations develop technology. The US Fed and the US banks can spend a lot of time looking at different scenarios. When the time comes, we will be informed in due course.

#115 45north on 12.17.17 at 9:54 pm

Lost but not leased: The Southern states had been relegated as literal slaves to the Northern states..economically exploited and taxed to greater degrees.

Lincolns’ Civil War masqueraded as a means to end slavery..when nothing was further from the truth. The abolition of slavery was simply propaganda to mask what was economic warfare against the South…to cripple and subsequently conquer the South and keep them in the fold.

which contradicts Doris Kearns Goodwin who wrote the book:
Team of Rivals

The American Civil War is established history. We have published public statements, newspaper articles and diaries of the era. You imply that the motive for the American Civil War was to “cripple and subsequently conquer the South”. To whom exactly do you attribute that motivation? It’s just a silly theory. You don’t have anything to back it up.

#116 Leo Trollstoy on 12.17.17 at 10:08 pm

Looks hopeless in AB

http://m.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/12/17/canadian-oil-selling-for-half-off-and-it-could-get-worse_a_23309881/

Aside from house prices, everything about living in Canada is awesome. Modest inflation, political stability, good healthcare, safe urban centres, inexpensive food, plentiful jobs. No complaints here

#117 Lost...but not leased on 12.17.17 at 10:17 pm

#105 “45 North”

You are entitled to your opinion..aka genuflect to the court historians.

That does not give you a “trump” card to waive around in kneejerk fashion, and simply deny what can …via a few keystrokes…. be researched and confirmed.

Test: You are aware re: the sovereign state called “City of London”..whereby the Queen, as per protocol, has to ask the Lord Mayor for permission to enter ?

Next connection: Vatican…City of London…Washington DC=????

If you are REALLY interested,research the connection between Washington D.C (aka District of COLUMBIA )and B.C. aka British COLUMBIA, both legally manifested in the same year(1871)

#118 Leo Trollstoy on 12.17.17 at 10:19 pm

It’s easy to do well in Canada. We live in a great country. Robust jobs. Tech. Healthcare. Banking. Whatever. Political stability. Monetary stability. Opportunity to invest or work. Great education.

If you can’t make it in such an easy environment like here, you can’t make it anywhere.

Truth

#119 Lost...but not leased on 12.17.17 at 10:21 pm

Error..meant #114 45north

#120 young & foolish on 12.17.17 at 10:24 pm

“To stave off crisis or sustain the value of its currency, Washington will be forced into even harsher decisions down the road than would have been the case pre-Trump.”

This sounds like what the bullion-licker guys are always warning about …. debts matter (cryptos to the rescue?)

#121 For those about to flop... on 12.17.17 at 10:44 pm

#112 Mark on 12.17.17 at 9:42 pm
DELETED

////////////////////////

I’m not religious in the slightest but every time I see the above happen, it gives me reason to pause and wonder if there is a god after all…

M43BC

#122 LivinLarge on 12.17.17 at 10:45 pm

Bezengy, pardon me as I struggle off the floor laughing.

Aren’t you the noob who forgot to pay the minimum payment on his LoC a few times and then when the bank raised the interest rate, sold performing assets to “stick it to the bank” by giving them their money back?

Forgive me if I don’t put much stock in your financial astuteness.

#123 oncebittwiceshy on 12.17.17 at 10:48 pm

…. and apparently the rats are bailing off of a sinking ship as they see the OSFI iceberg.

“Vancouver DETACHED inventory is now above levels for November not seen since 2008.”

Nov 2007: 1014
Nov 2008: 1983
Nov 2009: 1032
Nov 2010: 1002
Nov 2011: 1351
Nov 2012: 1592
Nov 2013: 1336
Nov 2014: 1121
Nov 2015: 957
Nov 2016: 1420
Nov 2017: 1614

#124 Lost...but not leased on 12.17.17 at 10:51 pm

#104 Bhad Bhabie..

Thanks for the added confirmation lol.

Abe Lincoln , a lawyer, had railway barons as his clientele.

After his alleged ” all men are equal” bromide…the South was dealt with via a scorched earth policy….from which the term carpetbaggers( exploiters) evolved.

Europe, prior to Lincoln, was in a state of flux given the socialistic dogma floating around…many ended up in USA.

Karl Marx was no genius… he was a plagiarist and a hypocrite..spewing commie dogma but reliant on the capitalist system to survive…much like Trotsky was an agent of Wall Street……who was also intercepted by Canada…who had him in custody but later released…20 Million+ Russians murdered later in the class warfare Bolshevik Revolution.

Regardless..who care?……history to some degree is written by the victors, but if ones takes the time to do the research, fills in many blanks and exposes many of those deified as frauds and charlatans.

#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.17 at 11:09 pm

#85 Soviet Capitalist on 12.17.17 at 7:34 pm
Garth, your views are usually sharp and correct, but I’ve yet to see a country with low taxes that has social unrest. The later usually happens in socialist paradises.
Any examples of business friendly countries that are not doing well coming to mind?
—————-
It’s right under your nose:
Brittania.

#126 Rates vs Capital on 12.17.17 at 11:10 pm

Tick tock…..only 14 more days until B20 kicks in.

If cheap rates and domestic speculation are really driving the market rather than foreign capital, then January 2018 data should reflect that 18% cut in credit through price and sale drops. If things remain the same in GTA and YVR, I guess foreign capital will have to be acknowledged as the driver.

Something tells me blog dogs are going to be disappointed…again.

#127 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 12.17.17 at 11:19 pm

“Love him or loathe him, Donald Trump now matters. This is getting serious.”–GT

You gotta luv him, Garth. Seriously. Stop censoring President Trump’s great speeches on your pathetic blog. No wonder President Trump has to use Twitter to get the truth out there to the people. Too many politicians can’t handle the truth, and don’t want anyone else to hear it either.

Good people everywhere absolutely luv The Donald and all his massive amounts of common sense, vastly superior intelligence, and unmatched integrity. Those in the know are in awe of his awesomeness, which seems to know no bounds. Republican President Trump wants to turn American cities into clean, safe, prosperous, shining sanctuaries for decent American citizens, rather than let the Demonrats turn American cities into unclean, unsafe, poverty-stricken, slum sanctuaries for violent, illegal-alien criminals and the so-called “social workers” who support all those bad things. Only those who stumble around and bumble around in the darkest darkness would foolishly think that President Trump has any faults whatsoever. (Well, okay, maybe he is too merciful and too quick to forgive and forget. Crooked Hillary should be in jail.)

One needs to remain totally objective. In all fairness, it must be remembered that only those dirty, rotten, loathsome Demonrats would speak evil of such a good man as President Trump and all the good things that he wants to do for America and its good people–for the good of all. Just remember that indisputable FACT and pay no heed to all the FAKE NEWS out there. Obviously, the ordinary people must be feeling forced to discretely hide their great love for President Trump out of fear of being attacked by jealous and deranged Demonrats on illegal drugs. That is why the FAKE POLLS always show his popularity forever decreasing between the elections, while at election time he always gets overwhelming majorities.

Just when Justin Trudeau and his potheads are about to totally destroy Canada, the great wave of prosperity from the USA under President Trump will wash over Canada and save it from some of the financial consequences of Trudeau’s folly. Of course, it won’t be able to save Canada from all the consequences of Trudeau’s folly. Canadians will still be laying around (and driving) stoned, boys and girls will not know which they are, and Canadians will still think that they are enlightened for being proud of sticking inappropriate things up their butt-holes.

#128 TurnerNation on 12.17.17 at 11:41 pm

Blog dogs do not show alarm over my prognostications :-)

(I have an active imagination – though sobar)

#129 oncebittwiceshy on 12.17.17 at 11:42 pm

… and the rats are bailing out of the S.S. Vancouver as they see the OSFI iceberg.

“Vancouver DETACHED inventory is now above levels for November not seen since 2008.”

Nov 2007: 1014
Nov 2008: 1983
Nov 2009: 1032
Nov 2010: 1002
Nov 2011: 1351
Nov 2012: 1592
Nov 2013: 1336
Nov 2014: 1121
Nov 2015: 957
Nov 2016: 1420
Nov 2017: 1614

#130 BillyBob on 12.18.17 at 12:52 am

#115 Leo Trollstoy on 12.17.17 at 10:08 pm
Looks hopeless in AB

http://m.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/12/17/canadian-oil-selling-for-half-off-and-it-could-get-worse_a_23309881/

Aside from house prices, everything about living in Canada is awesome. Modest inflation, political stability, good healthcare, safe urban centres, inexpensive food, plentiful jobs. No complaints here.

===================================

I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or not. There are many places with those exact traits, enough that they aren’t particularly noteworthy in themselves. “Well at least we’re not Somalia” isn’t really the catchiest tourism slogan.

One thing I do hate more every time I come back to visit. Being told what to say and think, more and more. Doesn’t really sit well with me. I suppose those who find critical thinking, hard work, might like it.

Also the clown PM apologizing for something new every day, usually with tears and a large taxpayer cheque to the aggrieved victim du jour, gets a bit old.

But there is certainly some beautiful scenery, and nice weather for a couple months of the year.

#131 Big Daddy on 12.18.17 at 1:08 am

Maybe. We should let the market fix itself as it always had before socialism intervened. Canada is in the process of ratcheting taxation to 100%. The special perks allowed to the civil service will let them tread water the test will drown…..or as you say….revolt. We can’t afford $500 p/m baby cheques to subsidize religous families with 22 kids and those who take on too much debt. Nor can we afford to subsidize 300,000 new immigrants and thier families every year. Trudeaus handlers want to break Trump in the media. Gerald Butts is taking his marching orders from Soros….Canada is getting screwed in between. Our leadership is flushing this country down the toilet. While aggressive grow fat ( I live in one) Canada is becoming a slave to the failed policies of Merkel and the EU.

#132 Dharma Bum on 12.18.17 at 6:49 am

So, anyhoo………back on the topic of real estate:

The next door neighbour listed back on Nov. 5th for $2,125,000.00

Crickets.

December 4th, they dropped it to $1,999,999.00.

Just sold for $1,975,000.000

Particleboard & glue, with brick veneer. In a sprawling, soulless York Region subdivision. Bought it 30 years ago. Moved in 6 months after me.

All I can think: Does this mean he coulda got $2,300,000.00 back in April? For a basic house in a suburban wasteland?

Whoa.

Still crazy out there.

Can’t wait to see who’s moving in. Anyone got Trump’s wall contractor’s number?

#133 Ace Goodheart on 12.18.17 at 7:10 am

Re: #82 Bhad Bhabie on 12.17.17 at 6:58 pm

“Money and time are the heaviest burdens of life, and the unhappiest of all mortals are those who have more of either than they know how to use.” Samuel Johnson

You’re quoting a broke poet who never worked a day in his life and spent most of his time living with his parents?

I guess he did write a dictionary. Didn’t his father die deeply in debt? I recall Samuel had to drop out of school over and over again because he could not pay the tuition (even borrowing from friends).

Oh, he finally made his fortune by marrying rich.

Then he had all the money and the time in the world….

#134 Rooster on 12.18.17 at 7:23 am

#122 etc Lost …….

I was unable to detect any satire in your numerous posts so must presume you are an American cousin, as even our special ed. children receive rudimentary instruction on the causes of the Civil War.

When Lincoln wrote those words you quote the symbol had not yet been invented. You must read the entire text to understand his meaning (i.e. he would do anything to keep the country together, but his conscience wouldn’t allow it). Your desire to misinterpret history is an affliction shared by some Canadian Republicans, but we keep them in the basement. Go home.

#135 Ed. on 12.18.17 at 7:26 am

please add
“sarcasm on/off symbol ”

note to self, “” are not displayed

#136 Ed. on 12.18.17 at 7:28 am

….. even if you put the greater than, less than symbols within quotes…..

What kind of Devil’s tool is this???

#137 maxx on 12.18.17 at 7:36 am

#18 Turbo on 12.17.17 at 2:16 pm

“The wave of new employment will fill social security coffers to overflowing, and drain the most important workers -specifically Doctors, Scientists & Engineers- from Canada as America -once again- becomes “the place to be” while here at home, T2 is raising taxes on job-creating businesses, Doctors, and entrepreneurs.
And calling them all tax cheats while he does it.

Canada is so f*cked it’s not even funny.”

And all the little beavers with little to no liquid, mammoth mortgages and little mobility can all stay home reading about failed trade missions and new, creative ways to tax…..everybody – except of course, those with trust-protected assets.

On the plus side, to fill the breaks at the coffee shop or big box store, there will be plenty of msm prose about T2 swanning around the globe, taking subsidized vacays at private islands and resorts, with more sickly sweet selfies and an avalanche of pics of tats, coifs and cutsie-poopsie social statement socks.

Isn’t he cooool?! Still think he’s good for Canada?

Those who blame “the boomers” for Canada’s economic ills are afflicted with grossly misplaced frustration.

#138 Bhad Bhabie on 12.18.17 at 8:12 am

#132 Ace Goodheart on 12.18.17 at 7:10 am
Re: #82 Bhad Bhabie on 12.17.17 at 6:58 pm

You’re quoting a broke poet who never worked a day in his life and spent most of his time living with his parents?

I guess he did write a dictionary
———-

Doncha know

#139 Rooster on 12.18.17 at 8:33 am

#93 Bigtowne Public Health care in Canada has for the past 20 years been overwhelmed with too much demand so now the Emergency wait time in hospitals across Ontario is the longest in Canada…….
……………
Just a thought, but if doctors provided more after-hours care wouldn’t that help reduce the demand for Emergency services and lower costs ? I may be out of line here, but IMHO a GP’s workday has become what used to be called “Bankers Hours” (merci Canada Trust).

So how can we incentivize our Docs to time-shift their conspicuous consumption and save the golf for weekends ? With the marginal rates being what they are, I don’t think anything less than a bludgeon will work. Or, maybe dare to speak the “P” word – as in Pandora’s Private health care. I am sure there are huge numbers of Yankee Docs willing to jump the fence, but for lack of a Billing number. A stroke of a pen.

#140 WUL on 12.18.17 at 8:44 am

While 18 days does not a December make, has the worm turned in Calgary real estate? Has the RE market developed a big SIST (Stress Inducing Stress Test)?

Average price Dec/Dec for all types is -8.34%. SFDs are down 8.89%.

New listings burgeon, sales flat and DOM up.

And the WTI/WCS discount has doubled. Happy holidays everyone.

#141 M. Thatcher on 12.18.17 at 8:48 am

Our Nation divided, has been crippled by the BTC Miners strike, and I have decided to close all of the mines permanently, effective today at 1 pm GMT. My heartfelt sympathies extend to all the miners and especially their families, who had no choice in the matter.

I have also decided to move our embassy in Hong Kong to Vancouver to better serve our colonial interests.

Best Wishes, Maggie & Dennis

#142 Reba McIntire on 12.18.17 at 9:09 am

I hope y’all Johnny Rebs get a chance to hear my re-recording of :

“The Night The Lights Went Out in Georgia”.

I thought it could never happen again, but I was wrong.

Holiday cheers, Reba

#143 Ace Goodheart on 12.18.17 at 9:21 am

RE: #79 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.17 at 6:37 pm

“Ace Goodheart.
Please change your handle to Ace Coldheart.”

Thanks.

I’ll start worrying about Americans and how they tax their middle class.

Probably I should also worry about Americans and why they like to shoot each other. Lose sleep over why they won’t ban gun ownership, even though it’s the reason why so many of them keep getting killed in mass shootings.

Then just for fun, I’ll be concerned about American governments and how they like to occasionally vote reality TV stars and actors into power as their presidents, with catastrophic results, in elections where I can only watch as a bystander.

Or perhaps I’ll just spend my time worried about why Americans like to cancel each other’s public health care and watch as their fellow citizens stay sick because they cannot afford to go to a hospital, or because their private health policy cancelled them as they got a disease like cancer or heart disease (very expensive to treat).

Sure, I’ll be very concerned about Americans.

That will be the day……..

#144 Cketus on 12.18.17 at 9:26 am

DELETED

#145 Alberta Ed on 12.18.17 at 9:59 am

“Most Canadians have absolutely no idea what this is, or why it’s happening.” That would include T2. And Morneau.

#146 Ed. on 12.18.17 at 10:11 am

Dearest Garth,
Would you please make an effort to stop a few more barbarians at the gate? It is just too easy.
Your humble savant

PS

“They be gif rapped ”
Bhad Bhabie

#147 Stan Brooks on 12.18.17 at 10:16 am

They spent 1 billion to fight small Businesses, probably getting back 1-2 millions in questionable extra taxes.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/most-cra-convictions-cited-government-100000839.html

At the same time there are no convictions for the Bahama scandal, all other/Bermuda offshore/KPMG scandals.

Wild bill is still in parliament, leading assault on small Businesses.

So typical for lieberal Canadians.

#148 conan on 12.18.17 at 10:18 am

Perhaps the USA will bring in consumption taxes, to make up for the short fall.

When do you think the GST will be raised here again? I never understood the political fear about re-raising them.

Me, I would raise the GST rate, until the first 20 k of personal income could be tax free for ordinary Canadians.

#149 fancy_pants on 12.18.17 at 10:36 am

crypto currencies are the canary in the coal mine. prepare for a hard lesson in inflation 101

#150 dosouth on 12.18.17 at 10:38 am

“Canadian taxes are higher, but we have a government that can’t keep its fingers off anything or stop apologizing and writing cheques….”

——————————————————-

First time I have ever read where someone, anyone has related all these gov’t apologies to higher taxes. Where do all the up and coming Mill-X-Y Geners think this money is going to come from?

But they will feel warm and fuzzy for an apology or two. It’s like relationships…stop apologizing as it will never stop and more and more will feel the need to refuse the apology and/never be satisfied..

Just stop apologizing

#151 IHCTD9 on 12.18.17 at 10:51 am

#15 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.17 at 2:09 pm

Just like oil and drugs: They hook you and then they have you over a barrel (in case of oil, literally).
____________________________________________

Some folks will have the resolve to un-hook themselves. At the end of the day, the consumer is in the drivers seat, that’s why so much effort is expended trying to pull them out from behind the wheel, or convince them that someone else is driving.

#152 Buddy Holly on 12.18.17 at 11:04 am

#142 Ace Goodheart on 12.18.17 at 9:21 am
RE: #79 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.17 at 6:37 pm
“Ace Goodheart.
Please change your handle to Ace Coldheart.”

————–
That will be the day……..

******
Son, from experience that is not an “outro” I would choose again..

Buddy

#153 Ubul on 12.18.17 at 11:04 am

Passing the tax bill is the confirmation that Russia didn’t hack the election for Trump and he is here to stay. Maybe the Democratic Party can offer a refund for the tax payers.

#154 Teamocil on 12.18.17 at 11:09 am

keep in mind Trump tax cuts for the big companies just means they can enjoy around the same rate they paid previously with an army of tax avoidance/tax shelter lawyers.

Also lots of “poor” in US complaining that Trump is going to limit mortgage tax deduction to 750k.

#155 M on 12.18.17 at 11:12 am

DELETED

#156 Cketus on 12.18.17 at 11:38 am

#143 Cketus on 12.18.17 at 9:26 am
DELETED

——–
Much obliged Garth,
Cketus,
Have a good one

That’s the result of insulting everyone else on this site. — Garth

#157 IHCTD9 on 12.18.17 at 11:59 am

#14 TurnerNation on 12.17.17 at 1:49 pm
IHCTD9 bud got bad news for you. A strong chance within 5 years you’ll be moving into a UN-approved density city.

Nobody will come to your door and force you out but…the pen is mightier. (Why we get 101 new laws passed against us each year).

1. Ontariowe will declare bankruptcy and first cuts will be to rural services. This means roads not maintained, no emergency services, no schools. Homes and businesses will be unable to get Property Insurance and must move into cities.

AND/OR

2. Overnight (as we saw with the trumped up VW emissions ‘scandal’) your vehicles will be deemed gross polluters and must be taken off the road withing a certain timeframe. No insurance company will touch them.
In their place, electric cars – which of course (still) have no range for rural areas (strangely the only technology on this planet not to show multiples of advancement in past 50 years…but I digress).

AND/OR

3. Freakish and random forest fires will target rural houses unchecked, burning hotter than before like melting car engines, and leaving only dust – and strangely often trees . See the recent L.A. evidence.

AND/OR

4. Most of rural Ontario will be declared “protected” areas – no land use. See this new development:

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/12/08/ontario-may-expand-greenbelt-to-protect-water-supply.html
___________________________________

When the SHTF, I’ll be ready – you can take that to the bank. I’ve got a premium Remington-Glock Policy on the house with a zero deductible.

I watched a series of videos on YouTube recently about a small Russian Village by the name of Bakhtia. It is located in the heart of the Taiga right on the Yenisei River. They live close to the earth with no Police, Hospital, Electricity etc…, and are totally cut off from modern society. Life has not changed there in over 100 years.

When the CCCP imploded, these folks didn’t even notice. Life carried on as per usual. They live without government intervention, so when the hand of government went limp it mattered not.

IMHO, it’s the big cities of the world who will suffer in the future as they are very dependent on services and utilities, transport for goods and food. Metropolises will feel much pain if the modern support network went down – even just for a week or two.

Us rural folks have options…

#158 Calgary Rip Off on 12.18.17 at 12:22 pm

Why worry about any of this when female heavy metal exists?

Hysterica: Heels of Steel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_lNRzDlgJ8

#159 Doug in London on 12.18.17 at 12:27 pm

In the short term I, like many others who own American stocks or ETFs, stand to benefit from these tax cuts. The irony is I’m not even American and will benefit more than from these tax cuts than many genuine American citizens. That’s in the short term, but the long term? If Garth is right, the next recession will be worse than if there were no tax cuts. If that’s not bad enough, the loss of purchasing power by American individuals or businesses will be felt in Canada, given that the United States is our biggest trading partner.

What should you do? My thoughts are over the next year or so enjoy those increased dividends and capital gains but, as explained here in other posts, don’t be afraid to take some profits along the way and put it into some fixed income investments. That could come in handy some day. Does anyone remember February and March of 2009?

#160 IHCTD9 on 12.18.17 at 12:45 pm

#147 conan on 12.18.17 at 10:18 am

When do you think the GST will be raised here again? I never understood the political fear about re-raising them.

Me, I would raise the GST rate, until the first 20 k of personal income could be tax free for ordinary Canadians.
_______________________________________

The fear is that they would be giving a big chunk of control over revenues to the people if you bias taxation towards consumption.

Citizens who feel the pinch might cut back on their consumption, buy cheaper products, repair their broken goods instead of buying new, or buy used instead of new, investigate the black market, shop south of the border etc.. All this cuts into revenues.

Instead, you will see tax increases on things you can’t really say no to: Transportation Fuels, Heating Fuels, Electricity, Property, Estate, Vehicular, etc…

I’d love to see taxes on consumption provide 80-90% of government revenue – it would be a virtually tax free haven for guys like me.

#161 Tony on 12.18.17 at 12:46 pm

Re: #109 Mark on 12.17.17 at 9:35 pm

The Canadian dollar is going to plummet not shoot to the moon. We could possibly see a sub 65 cent dollar next year.

#162 Lost...but not leased on 12.18.17 at 12:48 pm

#133 Rooster

Re Civil War..

Too bad people can’t see beyond the court historian brainwashing. It is you and others that misinterpret Lincoln’s quote and frustrate debate.

Lincoln could care less for slaves and stated so. His goal was to save the “Union” period. He denied the southern states their right to secede…effectively taking them prisoners. What part don’t you get???

The USA was being cobbled together into the “world police” for the globalists. Admiral Perry sailed to Japan in 1852 in order to force Japan to open its borders to US trade. In late 1800’s Teddy Roosevelt brought the US into Spanish American war and attacked Spanish held territories. The USA has been at war for the vast majority of its existence.

What has been created was Vatican as a key base for religion…the City of London as the base for global banking and Washington DC as the military arm..duly note all (3) are stand alone sovereign entities.

All the aforementioned adds up as to where we are headed.

Otherwise….Rooster..If you have anything to say…..we are waiting.

#163 Smartalox on 12.18.17 at 1:20 pm

Flipper:

It looks like the homesellers of Burnaby have not been reading your pink pumpkin posts detailing how houses on the Westside of Vancouver are selling for tens, and in some cases hundreds, of thousands below assessment.

Of course they can’t all be expected to be as well informed as you’ve kept us blog dogs, but I think that there’s proof positive that your pink posts are leading the trend.

I, for one would not expect to bid above assessment in Burnaby if, as a result of your posts, I can see that houses are selling below assessment on the Westside. The difference in Burnaby though is that those listings are still asking hundreds of thousands MORE than assessed, so it’s reasonable to think that they’re overpriced by 25% or 30% of what they might actually end up selling for.

A six hundred thousand dollar haircut on a house listed at $1.4 million is going to be a disaster for those sellers.

#164 IHCTD9 on 12.18.17 at 1:22 pm

#146 Stan Brooks on 12.18.17 at 10:16 am
They spent 1 billion to fight small Businesses, probably getting back 1-2 millions in questionable extra taxes.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/most-cra-convictions-cited-government-100000839.html

At the same time there are no convictions for the Bahama scandal, all other/Bermuda offshore/KPMG scandals.

Wild bill is still in parliament, leading assault on small Businesses.

So typical for lieberal Canadians.
________________________________

It’s funny how all these recent leaks and hacks have presented various governments with all the info they need on a silver platter. Names and phone numbers listed alphabetically. Addresses and bank balances. Dates and accomplices…

…and they still can’t bring themselves to do anything about it – even though the hard work is already done (for free).

Yep, let’s get medieval on “George’s Heating and Plumbing” for a few grand – that’ll teach him to let his employees claim their gas driving to work as a business expense.

“The review by CBC News found that tax protesters who believe that “natural persons” don’t have to pay taxes were the single largest category of those convicted.”

The CRA is making tin-foil hat wearing tax protestors a priority when BILLIONS lay offshore.

Good Grief what a joke..

#165 Victor V on 12.18.17 at 2:19 pm

TSX hits new intraday high in early trading, Canadian dollar down

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/12/18/tsx-hits-new-intraday-high-in-early-trading-canadian-dollar-down.html

#166 AGuyInVancouver on 12.18.17 at 2:36 pm

#20 Anne Wilson on 12.17.17 at 2:19 pm
Not a Trump fan but he’s not an idiot. He has cut billions in government spending so saying the corporate tax cuts will affect the USA for years and the next government will play catch up doesn’t make sense. Who got the USA in this mess? Sure as hell wasn’t Trump. No matter what he does, it can never be as bad as Obama. People just didn’t rake him over the coals the way they do with Trump but he was an a..h… and did more damage to the USA than most presidents before him.
_ _ _
Have they already legalized marijuana edibles in your province Anne? Pass the brownies.
Obama was stuck with having to fix the mess left by the previous Republican regime, just as some Democrat will be stuck cleaning up after the Trump Dump.

#167 Leo Trollstoy on 12.18.17 at 2:39 pm

#159 Tony on 12.18.17 at 12:46 pm
Re: #109 Mark on 12.17.17 at 9:35 pm

The Canadian dollar is going to plummet not shoot to the moon. We could possibly see a sub 65 cent dollar next year.

After being wrong for years, Mark changes his prediction to a 20 year horizon. He does this with all his wrong predictions to help him save face

#168 Ace Goodheart on 12.18.17 at 2:40 pm

Re: #41 Gulf Breeze on 12.17.17 at 3:49 pm

“Oh, and btw, Ayn Rand died in rather pitiful circumstances, reliant on the state for healthcare. In a tribal society, she would have been pitched off a cliff.”

She was a fiction author. Why do people always spend all of their time looking for wisdom from poets and writers? I bet these are the same people who vote actors and reality TV stars into government.

Financial success works similar to how a pump is successful in pumping water. The key is the positioning of the pump.

If you put the pump at the top of the hill, and the water is at the bottom, 9 times out of 10, you will not have success. The water will not make it up the hill.

However, if you position the pump at the bottom of the hill, and pump the water up from there, you almost always have success. The pump is much stronger and better prepared, at the bottom of the hill, than it is at the top.

Thus goes financial literacy and success. Trust fund kids start their lives at the top of the hill.

#169 IHCTD9 on 12.18.17 at 2:44 pm

#156 Calgary Rip Off on 12.18.17 at 12:22 pm

Why worry about any of this when female heavy metal exists?
________

Hysterica:

Anni De Vil (Vocals)
Bitchie (Guitar)
SatAnica (Bass)
Hell’n (Drums)
Marydeath (Keyboard)

Sounds like a delightful group of young ladies.

#170 Rooster on 12.18.17 at 2:47 pm

#159 Lost…….

Sorry man, I just can’t get to your level ….

Rooster

#171 Cketus on 12.18.17 at 2:58 pm

#154 Cketus on 12.18.17 at 11:38 am
#143 Cketus on 12.18.17 at 9:26 am
DELETED
—Much obliged Garth,
Cketus,

That’s the result of insulting everyone else on this site. — Garth
——-
Garth, you can be frank with me, the joke was awful in too many ways. You literally saved my cred.

The a$$holes I pound on deserve much more, but I think I’ve put in enough hours today to collect my pogey. Is there anybody else out there who has a shred of impropriety left ?

#172 Rocky Mountain on 12.18.17 at 3:11 pm

real estate can only go up eh?

https://thinkpol.ca/2017/12/18/flipper-sues-buyer-lost-half-million-selling-waterfront-property-loss/

Snippet from the article

“When the buyer finds out that the property is now in the middle of a lawsuit, they will walk away and the sale will fall through,” they told ThinkPol. “Prices in West Vancouver keep falling, and seller will be lucky to even get $2 million in 2018. I expect both the flipper and the eventual buyer to lose a lot of money.”

The insider blamed the real estate industry’s unethical practices for putting many working Canadians into a tough financial situations.

“The sad part for me is ordinary Canadians are falling prey to number manipulation by the industry trying to keep up the perception real estate prices can only go up,” the whistleblower said. “The amount of deception, corruption and outright fraud in the industry is appalling and there is so much secrecy around the process of purchase and sale that the public is kept in the dark on just about every aspect of it.”

#173 Jim on 12.18.17 at 3:21 pm

I think you nailed it. The corporate incentives are going to cause some huge behavior changes but I don’t think it’s going to lead to any job creation; just creative accounting and more share buybacks.

#174 paul on 12.18.17 at 3:25 pm

Hey Garth,
Sick of paying 53%

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/offshore-tax-convictions-lebouthillier-1.4447541

#175 Damifino on 12.18.17 at 3:35 pm

#166 Ace Goodheart

Why do people always spend all of their time looking for wisdom from poets and writers?
———————————–

George Orwell wrote fiction. He’s becoming terribly relevant these days.

#176 Lost...but not leased on 12.18.17 at 4:13 pm

#168 Rooster….

Chicken…..

#177 SoggyShorts on 12.18.17 at 4:14 pm

#169 Cketus on 12.18.17 at 2:58 pm
The a$$holes I pound on deserve much more, but I think I’ve put in enough hours today to collect my pogey.
*************************
Ummm.. phrasing?

#178 Gulf Breeze on 12.18.17 at 4:20 pm

Ace Goodheart,

I make all of my income from passive investments. And if there is a contest about who weathered the school of hard knocks more successfully, I probably have you beat.

I contracted a chronic neuropathic illness in my teens, had to quit school AND find my way without parental support AND with brain damage. I worked beyond my capabilities for so many years, I destroyed my health and have been virtually housebound, now, for 20 years.

You see the world through the lens of cold hard survival and so do I and that is why every finance blog I am on, I remind others of the repercussions of social Darwinism for others and ultimately for themselves.

Societies that become too sharply divided between the haves and have nots end up self destructing.

#179 Gravy Train on 12.18.17 at 4:42 pm

#173 Damifino on 12.18.17 at 3:35 pm
“George Orwell wrote fiction. He’s becoming terribly relevant these days.”

Yes, as well as Margaret Atwood and Hannah Arendt.

#180 2008 levels on 12.18.17 at 5:01 pm

#122 oncebittwiceshy
“Vancouver DETACHED inventory is now above levels for November not seen since 2008.”

If I had to guess… people dumping their unoccupied homes so that they don’t get hit by empty home tax?
Heck, I think even being listed for sale exempts the tax, or no?

Too bad there is no stat telling us how many of the listed homes are empty.

#181 TheDood on 12.18.17 at 5:21 pm

#115 Leo Trollstoy on 12.17.17 at 10:08 pm

…..Aside from house prices, everything about living in Canada is awesome……..
________________________________________

Wish I could agree. Canada could be an awesome country, but too many buffoons running the show.

All systems of government need massive overhaul. Too much wasteful spending and no accountability for it.

I live in lower mainland and cross the border weekly to fill gas and shop for groceries. Given the difference in cost between here in and U.S. for the EXACT same items, why wouldn’t I? Over the course of the whole year, savings are in the 000’s. We are taxed way too much, and pay way too much for everything else.

#182 Midnights on 12.18.17 at 5:28 pm

You haven’t seen anything yet! Wait till President Trump announces infrastructure spending.

#183 Midnights on 12.18.17 at 5:34 pm

Dow rises 5,000 points in a year for the first time ever

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/12/18/dow-rises-5000-points-in-a-year-for-the-first-time-ever.html

#184 AGuyInVancouver on 12.18.17 at 5:59 pm

#170 Rocky Mountain on 12.18.17 at 3:11 pm
real estate can only go up eh?

https://thinkpol.ca/2017/12/18/flipper-sues-buyer-lost-half-million-selling-waterfront-property-loss/
_ _ _
Thanks for that, it always warm my heart to see speculators get burned. Dirty shysters and so on… :)

#185 Ace Goodheart on 12.18.17 at 7:54 pm

RE: #173 Damifino on 12.18.17 at 3:35 pm

“George Orwell wrote fiction. He’s becoming terribly relevant these days.”

Do you mean Trumpster and all his “fake news” crap? Something scared him. Now he’s toeing the line. No idea what it was, but the change is palpable.

If you are talking about Canada and the current obsession with liberal re-education of the masses, been there done that. I’ve been re-educated so many times by various governments over the years. You just learn to filter your thoughts before they come out. Sometimes one or two get away from you.

A few years’ time we’ll be back to the cons, everyone will be afraid to fart again and we’ll all be worried about what the latest dear leader is thinking.

For now we have to worry about offending people.

Oh well, six of one, half dozen of something else……

#186 maxx on 12.18.17 at 8:27 pm

#166 Ace Goodheart on 12.18.17 at 2:40 pm

Amazing how many (central bankers…..) got sucked in lock, stock and barrel by that vomitous magnum opus. Quelle profondeur!

“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.” Stephen Hawking

As for the rest, BOOYAH!

#187 Cici on 12.18.17 at 8:36 pm

#11 Ponzius Pilatus

That’s an epic beaut…but I hope your call is wrong!

#188 Future Expatriate on 12.18.17 at 10:56 pm

The bitcoin guy is not the Antichrist.

Trümp?

Just watch.

#189 Keny on 12.19.17 at 12:12 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/foreign-investment-toronto-vancouver-housing-135134478.html

#190 Ben on 12.19.17 at 2:28 pm

Two locals duking it out in Courts. Buyer already lost 550k on west Van condo. Assuming new buyer doesn’t walk.

https://thinkpol.ca/2017/12/18/flipper-sues-buyer-lost-half-million-selling-waterfront-property-loss/