Northern exposure

The odds are 90% that interest rates south of us will rise next week. That will be the fourth jump in a year, rendering those who said the cost of money can never rise to econo-weenie status. Meanwhile, speaking of weenies, our guys at the Bank of Canada decided Wednesday not to hike here.

So the B0C rate – upped twice during the summer – remains at 1%, likely until the first week in March. In a quick response the dollar gave up half a cent, realtors resuscitated, the price of a condo in Yaletown increased $840 and bank boss Stephen Poloz lost another shard of cred. After all, the Canadian economy is riding high at the moment with boffo job stats out last Friday, solid GPD, obscenely profitable banks, double-digit corporate profit increases, stable oil and, thankfully, no Adele concerts planned for the remainder of the year.

Yes, I know the markets gave only a 20% chance of a rate hike this week, but there’s logic in getting this behind us now, instead of during the universal stress test madness that will engulf the coming Spring market. In fact, while wimping out, Poloz did say this: “Higher interest rates will likely be required over time,” but the bank, “will continue to be cautious, guided by incoming data in assessing the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity, and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation.”

Hmm. Okay, caution. Very Canuckistan and beaverish. That should guarantee a seriously lower dollar by rutting season.

Meanwhile Bank of America says the Fed will hike three more times in 2018. Deutsche Bank says four increases. That would bring to seven or eight the number of moves in the US in just 24 months – a reasonably massive upward thrust after eight years of ZIRP. This means our guys will be hiking in three months from now, and may even need to add on a half-point (instead of a quarter) to stem the inevitable slide in the dollar. Or, maybe they’ll just let it slide – adding a tragic amount to the cost of a new 2018 Harley.

If Poloz is bold, mortgages at 3.75% are a reasonable expectation. Add on the 2% stress test special sauce, and borrowers will need to qualify at 5.75%.

Higher rates seem an inevitability, even as Poloz the Dove is wary of cooling off a robust economy too soon. Economic growth will come in at 3% this year – just two years after being negative. Unemployment is at the lowest level in ten years. The feds are handing out tens of billions a year that they don’t have, spending up a storm on critical economic issues like compensating gay people and gender equity. Commodity values have been inching higher and, most importantly, our biggest trading partner is swimming in presidential testosterone, hopped up on tax cuts and skimming the cream from toppy stock markets.

So what’s holding them back from pulling the rate trigger this month along with the Fed?  “The global outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty, notably about geopolitical developments and trade policies.” This means the bank thinks NAFTA is somewhat cooked, and reflects T2’s failure to get anywhere with a Chinese free trade deal last week, plus his questionable move in backing out of TPP. Protectionism remains a potent force in the world, exemplified by the America First policy of the Trumpster, and the serious political challenge leaders like Germany’s Angela Merkel have encountered. Lately our trade numbers have sucked, despite a dollar which has been flaccid since Labour Day.

Meanwhile higher rates in the US have the yield curve flattening. If that means nothing to you, good. You’re normal. But it does indicate building economic imbalances at a time when equity markets around the world are at record highs and millions of people have been flocking into the Bitcoin bubble, along with Vancouver condos. Human nature being what it is, eight years of job uncertainty, flat wages and rising personal debts have blossomed now into the usual uninformed speculation. Yesterday a guy with a million bucks in his portfolio, a good job, nice pension and great future asked me if he should up his risk level and go 75% into stocks. So typical. So dangerous.

Somewhere between our wussy, sexless central bankers and American toxic masculinity lies investment nirvana. Stay balanced, my friends.

215 comments ↓

#1 CY on 12.06.17 at 5:52 pm

Poloz will raise the rates soon…

#2 The big short on 12.06.17 at 5:55 pm

#145 Ace Goodheart
These guys are rarely wrong:

Not the point, is it?

Yeah, all bubbles pop.
If the bitcoin bubble pops at $1M, then everybody that shorted it at $10k will be bankrupt (!) if they didn’t close their position before that.

Note that exchanges will actually force traders to automatically close short positions, so that they don’t end up with the smoking hole in their assets.

#3 Bogdan on 12.06.17 at 5:58 pm

Bitcoin at $13,000 after the crash. Will be interesting to see how high it goes. Maybe called the peak a little early

#4 nick on 12.06.17 at 5:59 pm

Canada is pretty weak overall IMO. And we’re not alone.

Our top GDP generator is about to get a rude awakening (real estate and related sectors) when sales transactions continue to plummet and the number of new mortgages drop.

I think we see the US pull away again. Weaker CAD, growing interest rate gap. But on the other hand the US doesnt like Canada with such a low dollar. Maybe its some sort of bargaining chip.

I dunno, on paper Canada is strong. But leading the world in debt… I dont see us pushing our rates higher. Its suicide. Better off kicking the can.

#5 Decade on 12.06.17 at 6:00 pm

Maybe the guy with a million bucks in his portfolio knows that he will not be needing his capital for the next ten years?

Stocks should be fine, long term. I doubt stocks can depreciate and stay depreciated for 10 years. Did they ever?

If you can miss it for 10 years, go for it.

I have yet to meet a person who did not buckle with a 15% or 20% market correction and sell into the teeth of a declining market. Balanced portfolios are the best antidote to that inevitable event. — Garth

#6 Dead Cat Bounce on 12.06.17 at 6:01 pm

Poloz’s a pussy ! nuff said

#7 B0C on 12.06.17 at 6:03 pm

B0C.

Love it!
Subtle…

#8 espressobob on 12.06.17 at 6:08 pm

Sitting on a pile of profit portfolio speaking. Nothing happening and so boring.

The major indices are up big time and no correction in sight.

The life of a contrarian.

#9 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 12.06.17 at 6:09 pm

happy holidays or a merry Christmas song

https://youtu.be/9PIIp9a1rSs

#10 Guy in Calgary on 12.06.17 at 6:09 pm

I enjoy reading commentary on BTC… some say up up up, some say crash, some claim they don’t know. The one’s that say they don’t know are the honest ones.

Sucks to miss the boat on BTC but oh well. Wonder if introducing BTC to the futures exchange will open it up to manipulation by big money?

I think the futures exchange will be used to unload large BTC positions which will negatively affect the price. But hey, who the hell knows. Maybe we will just have a bunch of paper billionaires that can only trade with each other since they cannot liquidate.

#11 TRUMP on 12.06.17 at 6:12 pm

Garth… Do you remember the wise phrase of mr buffett.

Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; but they tell you nothing about the future.

I tried to warn you!!!! Just admit you were wrong.

#12 Bitcoinnaire on 12.06.17 at 6:14 pm

Oh look, Bitcoin at $14,000 USD today.

$20,000 before Christmas, and $100K by June. Trajectory of course is a million per unit.

How are those shorts going?

Sure is effortlessly profitable for a “scam” or “ponzi scheme”. Must be one of the longest running pyramids since the US dollar..

#13 Dogs luv to Netflix & Chill (Don't call me Dipstick!) on 12.06.17 at 6:14 pm

Toronto told Poloz not to increase interest rates. Those 90-storey luxury towers in downtown Toronto need to be built at One Bloor for those secretaries who sport Chanel and Louis Vuitton handbags.

I’ve heard that salaries are tremendous in downtown Toronto that secretaries use their bi-weekly paycheck to purchase another Louis Vuitton handbag for the season!
All I see in downtown Toronto are City notices to build some very tall luxury skyscrapers.

One Bloor is 85 floors with a 7 floor proposed shopping base, near Ryerson University they are constructing a 74-storey skyscraper, and near College St. they’re proposing to construct FIVE luxury towers no less than 70 floors high.
Poloz needs lower interest rates and a collapsing Loonie to make those luxury towers attractive for Canadians to purchase.

#14 dakkie on 12.06.17 at 6:16 pm

MASSIVE Mortgage Fraud Found in Canada AGAIN! Real Estate Will Need HUGE Bailout!
http://investmentwatchblog.com/massive-mortgage-fraud-found-in-canada-again-real-estate-will-need-huge-bailout/

#15 Bob on 12.06.17 at 6:16 pm

“The feds are handing out tens of billions a year that they don’t have, spending up a storm on critical economic issues like compensating gay people and gender equity. ”

——————————————————————
That statement alone speaks volumes about the decadent times we live in here in the Great White North.

#16 young & foolish on 12.06.17 at 6:19 pm

Our monopoly dollar heads lower, but our bitcoins head higher. A bubble? Yes, but with very little air in it.

Meanwhile long rates stay low because the smart money knows this period of “growth” is illusory … built on cheap money (about to be withdrawn). Main street is pushing up sales at Dollarama and Dollar General is expanding big time. How long before the pendulum swing the other way?

#17 steph on 12.06.17 at 6:19 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/laurentian-bank-mortgages-1.4433982

Another one bites the dust?

Anyone knows who the third party corp is?

#18 Paul on 12.06.17 at 6:20 pm

Our future? Amazon Canada? There’s hope yet.

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34068480-nomadland#other_reviews

A surprising look at the people, mainly retirees, who are houseless not homeless. In a throwback to the 1930s they travel across America in mobile homes and converted vehicles, generally off the radar, taking seasonal work. Because they can’t afford the lifestyle we should all hope retired workers receive.

It’s one of those pretty damning indictments of America’s social fabric. And let’s be careful about too much Canadian smugness until we look at our own seniors.

#19 Zapstrap on 12.06.17 at 6:20 pm

How much for cauliflower this winter? Wonder if you can get one from Ali Baba with free shipping?

#20 Doug t on 12.06.17 at 6:22 pm

I don’t always say we’re doomed…….. Sorry wrong – yes I do

RATM

#21 Mark on 12.06.17 at 6:22 pm

At least Poloz seems to be waking up to the reality that the Canadian economy is slowing down big-time, and that housing/finance can’t be the headline/leading sector going forward or even for a long time with all the overcapacity that’s been created.

Anyone who has any knowledge of the Canadian labour market knows its a disaster and that the “official” unemployment rate isn’t worth the paper its (not) printed on. Janet Yellen knows the same, but there is actual inflationary pressure in the United States due to decades of under-investment across most facets of industry and exploding trade deficits that will eventually come home to roost.

Canadian RE will likely continue its descent after its 4-year-long plateau after the 2013 peaking. The extreme levels of overcapacity and overbuilding dictate such.

One thing that crossed my feed today was that if the US Senate passes the proposed “tax reform”, Citigroup will have to take a $20B impairment to their earnings due to tax adjustments. That’s an enormous write-down which, if systemically replicated across other banks, and with typical leverage ratios in the US banking system, could force the deleveraging to the tune of trillions of assets. Of course, nobody’s talking about this very much, but it does seem like something worthy of investigation. Not that I would shed a tear if failed-if-not-for the Federal Reserve’s 2008/2009 bailout institutions went bankrupt, but the banking system has been heavily abused by its management and employees over the past few decades and it would be nice to see their feet held to the fire for some real reform. I think the general public is pretty much sick and tired of “finance” running the economy to the exclusion of actually productive people.

#22 The Fat Lady on 12.06.17 at 6:22 pm

The majority of the Canadian population and the rich elite live within close proximity to the most inflated real estate prices in the Country.

To raise interest rates would mean to take the sails out of a large majority of that same population and stall and crash the economy.

The Government knows it so which politician wants to be responsible for that scenario..???

Not even You Garth would pull the plug out of that bathtub.

#23 David W2 on 12.06.17 at 6:23 pm

Garth, is this housing overvaluation thing only a tale of two places, GTA and Vancouver or will others be collateral damage? I’m sure others are just as confused as to whether the balanced approach to home ownership is wise in other markets if the next 2-3 yrs could suck away any equity one builds in a new purchase.

#24 TEMPLE on 12.06.17 at 6:24 pm

Yesterday a guy with a million bucks in his portfolio, a good job, nice pension and great future asked me if he should up his risk level and go 75% into stocks.

Really? He should already have been in 100% stocks. That “nice pension” is his bond allocation. It backstops his whole game and his entire ex-pension investment portfolio should be angled for maximum returns, not limping along like an old man with a walker yelping at shadows. Especially if he’s reasonably young. If someone with a pension can’t invest aggressively because they have no risk tolerance, then who can?

#25 Danny on 12.06.17 at 6:33 pm

Garth…..yes….your statement of “uninformed speculation “….probably one good reason there now is an explosion of houses and condos for sale in Etobicoke….just happened out of nowhere.
Question obviously is why now when historical not a good time to sell?
Could it be all this positive talk about record low unemployment…..?????…that these sellers think the ” buy now fever is amongst us” ?
Hundreds of units for sale in South Etobicoke …even those 3 units on the 41st floor of proposed new Tridel high rise 3 Condo Towers at Bloor and Islington…where all others units sold over 8 months ago….go figure.
Sale numbers by March 2018…..will unfold some interesting stories….Garth will surely keep the Real Estate Cartel honest……very few analysts are these days.

#26 Jimmy on 12.06.17 at 6:34 pm

Happy Ways
Happy Days

In Justin We Trust

#27 Livinlarge on 12.06.17 at 6:37 pm

“If Poloz is bold, mortgages at 3.75% are a reasonable expectation.”…hmmm and precisely where they were in October 1997 too, at the bottom of the last collapse.

Nothing changes so much as it stays the same. Prices were 1/3 of what they are now for exactly the same property out here in the hinterland of suburban 519.

#28 Fake News Again on 12.06.17 at 6:39 pm

“After all, the Canadian economy is riding high at the moment with boffo job stats out last Friday, solid GPD, obscenely profitable banks, double-digit corporate profit increases, stable oil and, thankfully, no Adele concerts planned for the remainder of the year.”

Fake Govt stats – Govt jobs and p/t jobs are a net loss for Canada.

Solid GDP? Increasing BILLIONS in debt to make a solid GDP number is ridiculous. Govt is assuming the plebs know nothing about what GDP represents.

Banks continue to increase fees and continue to print money out of thin air. Of course they are profitable. And will remain so as long as an ignoramus Govt allows them to.

Double Digit Corporate Profits – correct. Everywhere BUT Canada and the USA. Most of these profits are from foreign slave factories, illegal mining operations and by squirrelling money offshore in the Caymans and Ireland.

Oil has nowhere to go but down. There are thousands of tankers floating around the ocean with no place to go. All the while more and more electric cars, solar roofs and house/industrial size battery packs are installed everyday. Tesla just lit up a 30,000 person city in Australia in a 100 day bet. Like Canada – Oil is DOOOMED.

#29 espressobob on 12.06.17 at 6:41 pm

#11 TRUMP

Financial advisors are paid to create a line between risk and capital preservation. Case by case basis.

Why else would you hire one? You know something the rest of us don’t?

#30 joblo on 12.06.17 at 6:43 pm

Lieberals = LAME

Crying EU trade talks
FAIL T2 in China
Butt kicking in Nafta

Whatta buncha LOSERS!

#31 akashic record on 12.06.17 at 6:43 pm

BTC USD14K

#32 tccontrarian on 12.06.17 at 6:56 pm

Maybe the guy with a million bucks in his portfolio knows that he will not be needing his capital for the next ten years?

Stocks should be fine, long term. I doubt stocks can depreciate and stay depreciated for 10 years. Did they ever?

If you can miss it for 10 years, go for it.
———————————————————-
I have yet to meet a person who did not buckle with a 15% or 20% market correction and sell into the teeth of a declining market. Balanced portfolios are the best antidote to that inevitable event. — Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Gotta have the stomach (or balls) of a ‘contrarian’ to deal with 15-20% corrections.
I was ‘down’ over -40% while accumulating Teck Resources (from $12, all the way down to $5.50); it was all worth the ‘pain’ as I was able to sell at $25-$35 a few months later.
Triple-digit gains are not for the ‘average’ investor. I don’t like being… average!
TCC

#33 young & foolish on 12.06.17 at 7:00 pm

Just for the record blog dogs … if I didn’t own bitcoin already, I would be weary of walking into it now … blockchain has a great future, but now bitcoin is attracting stupid money.

Proceed with caution!

#34 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 12.06.17 at 7:02 pm

Interest rates are gonna stay as low as possible for as long as possible. Tough luck for the Loonie. Interest rates hikes a la USA would crush us.

#35 Bob Dog on 12.06.17 at 7:04 pm

Some Bitcoin boffins are predicting $1Million by the end of 2020. If they are correct there is still plenty of time for everyone to jump in. I am really looking forward to a world of 7 Billion people all flush with Bitcoin wealth. Its going to be wonderful when nobody needs to work about working anymore.

To the Moon…..

#36 akashic record on 12.06.17 at 7:06 pm

I have yet to meet a person who did not buckle with a 15% or 20% market correction and sell into the teeth of a declining market. Balanced portfolios are the best antidote to that inevitable event. — Garth

Nice to meet you.

You all say the same when markets rise. Fair weather cowboys. – Garth

#37 Rosie on 12.06.17 at 7:06 pm

Garth, could you say more about what you mean by “boffo job stats”? I assume you mean that somehow the Feds are cooking the numbers so that they look better than they actually are?

#38 the ryguy on 12.06.17 at 7:07 pm

Hate to constantly be standing up for “crazy white nationalists” and Emperor Trump, but did anyone read TPP?

Cause I did, and guess what, it was terrible for Canada!
Lets say a company that was a mixture of private and state money…oh I can think of one such country with a lot of dough to throw around…China! Anyway, so this blended company “China INC” decides to buy, lets say Delta Hotel. Well, China INC would be allowed to bring in their own workers, of course without paying them the proper EI, CPP etc etc, or without having to respect our human rights/minimum wage and all the stuff regular canadian businesses would have to deal with.

And for the record, T2 would have signed us up for that in a heartbeat had his BFF Hilary won. So once again, you all should thank DJT for not going along with this globalist attempt to end all sovereignty.

#39 HaHaHa on 12.06.17 at 7:09 pm

Ok Bitcoin experts who are calling for it to crash. Put your money where your mouths are. short it then. All talk no substance. Sounds like easy money according to you. Now back to the house bubble

#40 A123 on 12.06.17 at 7:13 pm

Canada and trade with China: we have an edge on some things….except they did not agree, this time:
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorial_cartoon/2017/12/06/theo-moudakis-china-pot.html

#41 Bezengy on 12.06.17 at 7:17 pm

I think you southerners could use some “Northern Exposure” so you could come to your senses and realize that there is more to life then line-ups and traffic jams. Here is Gold Town draft is still under $3.00 a glass, and if you’re interested I have a nice 1 acre lot with an Artesian well and road access for
$25 k, I’ll even throw in a few chickens with the deal.

#42 Tony on 12.06.17 at 7:21 pm

Re: #1 CY on 12.06.17 at 5:52 pm

But Canadian interest rates have usually been one percentage point higher in Canada than in America all throughout history.

#43 Rexx Rock on 12.06.17 at 7:22 pm

If you want to invest in BTC make sure you have a stop loss and are willing and able to lose a few thousand dollars.Remeber this currency has gained a few pennies to $14,000.Early retirement for the ones who foreseen the future of a non corrupt central banker that can manipulate countries currencies.
As for BOC,we now have a cushion for 3 rate cuts if there is a recession in the next few months to a year or two.Real estate is still rocking in B.C. because of a strong economy and huge wage growth.

#44 Ace Goodheart on 12.06.17 at 7:35 pm

RE: “So what’s holding them back from pulling the rate trigger this month along with the Fed?”

Libs tax, spend and borrow. You can’t borrow as much with high rates. So they will ask Poloz to wait. He likely will do as requested. Our dollar will tank, business minded people will cry uncle, and then rates will be raised anyway, but slightly late.

Likely when the current orgy of asking for forgiveness from everyone with government cheque in hand is finished (including paying residential school survivors from Newfoundland, which location was NOT a Province and NOT part of Canada when the residential schools issue took place there), we will have to take stock of how much money is actually left (as they always spend more than they take in, this is just an exercise in negative math). Sooner or later they’ll run out of causes to help, then the Libs will be revealed as a bunch of trust fund kids with no life experience and the key to the vault.

RE: “Yesterday a guy with a million bucks in his portfolio, a good job, nice pension and great future asked me if he should up his risk level and go 75% into stocks. So typical. So dangerous.”

At least he didn’t tell you to invest it all in bitcoin.

#45 Robert B on 12.06.17 at 7:41 pm

I’m truely surprised with no rate hike.

After an almost 80,000 job print , I thought it was a done deal. Must have been the new mortgage rules which will take a bite out of the economy after January .

A problem with bitcoin. Today is theft.
Nicehash was hacked today .$60 million stolen.
No police investigation . Is there bitcoin police out there?

#46 akashic record on 12.06.17 at 7:43 pm

#36 akashic record on 12.06.17 at 7:06 pm

I have yet to meet a person who did not buckle with a 15% or 20% market correction and sell into the teeth of a declining market. Balanced portfolios are the best antidote to that inevitable event. — Garth

Nice to meet you.

You all say the same when markets rise. Fair weather cowboys. – Garth

That’s a track record not a prediction.
Trading on self-directed account since when a trade cost $29.

#47 millmech on 12.06.17 at 7:44 pm

At work today our plant announced a one week shutdown for automation/upgrading to occur next spring. There was pandemonium at the meeting as people there couldn’t afford to miss one weeks pay.
To keep from having an ugly scene the company agreed to pay everybody a weeks pay but deduct it as a smaller amount from the rest of the years pay periods. People were freaking as they couldn’t afford to miss one weeks pay, some were almost in tears before the company made the pay compromise.
Apparently even with three months notice people are so stretched that they can not even afford to set aside one weeks pay.
An eye opening experience today!

#48 Zapstrap on 12.06.17 at 7:44 pm

#41 Bezengy on 12.06.17 at 7:17 pm

I think you southerners could use some “Northern Exposure” so you could come to your senses and realize that there is more to life then line-ups and traffic jams. Here is Gold Town draft is still under $3.00 a glass
—————————————————————–
Can still get a real pint of draft for $3.50 and a great burger with fries for another fiver in Van if you know where to look. Don’t have to keep your back to the wall either.

#49 TheSecretCode on 12.06.17 at 7:47 pm

The use of algorithms help produce the artificial intelligence regarding any subject matter that you may want to break down (both quantifiably and qualitatively).

Dear Canadians:

Your HELOC to GDP is currently 3 times greater today than the record peak in the US (achieved in 2007).

The best measure of house value in your country is credit.

When credit tightens, forced sales become the seed in the system that reprices the values within the flawed appraisal method of comparable properties.

Forced sales represent a small amount of the overall market (just like a crack in a dam where the initial water leakage is small). However, as the things slowly start repricing (the so-called soft landing), the crack spreads (like cancer) and the system opens up the flood gates.

Canadians are currently witnessing the initial water leakage, which is quite small at present.

People might want to start paying attention to credit.

#50 Nonplused on 12.06.17 at 7:49 pm

More about Bitcoin:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/12/bitcoins-insane-energy-consumption-explained/

#51 Adrian on 12.06.17 at 7:49 pm

“That will be the fourth jump in a year, rendering those who said the cost of money can never rise to econo-weenie status.”

Then there are those of us who still say that higher interest rates will kill off the recovery long before they ever get “back” to “normal,” forcing the Fed to drop them back down again. Time will tell… Credit seems to be holding steady at ~7% of GDP per year in the US, and private debt-to-GDP is still ~20% below its peak during the GFC, so this can still run a few more years before credit has to turn negative again. When it does, though, perhaps you will appreciate how the US economy has followed Japan into the aftermath of a debt-bubble. (See Prof. Steve Keen’s graphs for US & Japanese credit vs. debt-to-GDP:)

http://www.profstevekeen.com/data-on-credit-employment-and-house-prices/

***

“That should guarantee a seriously lower dollar by rutting season.”

I think Poloz wants that. He seems to be counting on business investment and exports taking over for the faltering real estate bubble, and he may be giving the Liberals the fiscal headroom they will need for when that really keels over next year. Hopefully NAFTA isn’t so pooched that it undermines the export-led growth we need to pay for all this mortgage debt. Otherwise, unemployment will rise, and so will defaults…

#52 tulips on 12.06.17 at 7:52 pm

#12 Bitcoinnaire on 12.06.17 at 6:14 pm
Oh look, Bitcoin at $14,000 USD today.

$20,000 before Christmas, and $100K by June. Trajectory of course is a million per unit.

————————————————————–
Why $100K and $1M? Why not $200K in June and ultimately $2M or $10M or $100M? Please provide intelligent reasons and explanation for the price targets if you have them.

#53 Ray Skunk on 12.06.17 at 7:53 pm

Started shovelling into USD investments when T2 got elected. Doubled down when Trump got in.

Now have more US exposure than Canadian.

Feels good man.

#54 TheSecretCode on 12.06.17 at 7:55 pm

BTC is going to run up big time.

#55 is everyone still laughing? on 12.06.17 at 7:57 pm

$15,000……:)

ah, all those ‘experts’…..wrong again

#56 TheSecretCode on 12.06.17 at 8:01 pm

BTC 40K by 3rd quarter of next year.

It is getting ahead of itself right now based on a scientific formula of what it is replacing and how the math of the blockchain works.

It is all dependent on people adopting it, which is where the bet rests…the FED is the biggest risk, who by virtue can be a part of the hacking problem.

#57 Long-Time Lurker on 12.06.17 at 8:04 pm

A flattening yield curve is a really bad signal.

#73 Lisa on 12.05.17 at 11:01 pm
Dogs!

I need your help!

Does anyone know which one of Garth’s 2000+ blog entries I can recommend to a friend who is desperate to buy a house NOW? I showed him the one with Evan the eunuch from a few days ago but it wasn’t detailed enough. Any recommendations would be great! Thanks!

(Hopefully the quality of posters on here tonight is a bit higher than last night…yikes! I think I read, maybe, ten intelligent posts.)

>This one might help:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/10/09/my-fear/

‘My fear..’
October 9th, 2017

“I’m not a millennial,” Andy says, “so be nice to me.” Well, that doesn’t stop the Victoria dad from whining like one.

“Garth, I feel stuck and need your help,” he moans. “I’ve been holding off buying a home for my family in Victoria for a number of years now. There are regrets as we have had opportunities for a decent house within our budget in good hoods but have held out as we thought prices were going to go down. Then 2015/16 happened and now our prospects have diminished considerably. I’ve always been happy renting, that is until the last few years. We’ve been booted out so many times because of landlords selling/moving in. We have moved 3x in the last 4 years with our rent going up considerably each time.

#136 AGuyInVancouver on 12.06.17 at 2:28 pm
#42 Long-Time Lurker on 12.05.17 at 8:27 pm
…GuyInVan, when the housing market crashes so will Vancouver’s economy. Eat that.

I’m fully aware of that, and welcome it. because the crashing of the real estate economy will allow other sectors to flourish. Look at tech, currently constrained by our insane housing prices. We might actually be able to attract world class talent again to our universities. Bring on the end of the real estate economy!

BTW so sad to see the timid Poloz shirk his duty once again. He’s done more harm to Canada and Canadians than any one person in a long time. Fire him!

>Let me guess: You’re under 30. You’ve never lived through a recession have you? There’s a steamroller approaching. I hope you stay put.

Now that I’ve sussed you out, you’re not worth responding to any longer.

Today’s idea:

Corrections to distortions in the economic and financial systems must be made slowly so that systems won’t crash and have huge numbers of people and businesses in trouble. In other words, a gradual rising of interest rates. With a slow correction of distortions, people and businesses will have the time to adjust. I was going to write more but I already posted a lot here.

#58 espressobob on 12.06.17 at 8:05 pm

#32 tccontrarian

Your position in TECK.B is a speculation play. Not contrary. Sell enough of your position to retrieve your original capital.

Just to be fair, I’ve done the same some time ago. Sitting on house money. Side bets can bite the other way.

#59 Nonplused on 12.06.17 at 8:08 pm

More about Bitcoin:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-06/largest-crypto-mining-exchange-confirms-it-was-hacked-over-50-million-bitcoin-stolen

How can Bitcoin be better than cash? At least if I get mugged I maybe have $300 on me. I can survive that. If the crooks want to rob a bank they have to bring guns. If Bitcoin is so secure, how come it is so easy to steal by the millions?

Bitcoin is all hype and no function. It is not secure, as a percentage basis the loses are far bigger than all credit card fraud, and when you get robbed there is no recourse. No insurance. Your Bitcoins are gone.

Plus it solves a problem that doesn’t exist. There is no need for Bitcoin. Paypal does the same thing.

I, personally, am not going to pay money for an electronic equation. Don’t care how fast it’s going up. Because what will be amazing is after it goes up some more, how many hackers will be stealing it all. After that the crash will be spectacular.

When you put your money in the bank, they have armored guards, a safe, plenty of video surveillance, and they’ve already taken the precaution of not keeping more money on site than they typically need in a day so only so much can be stolen. There are protections around your Bitcoin. Any good hacker can take them.

#60 Tina on 12.06.17 at 8:08 pm

$3,000 a month for a 3-bedroom condo in Toronto & hundreds of angry & frustrated men which has nothing to do with the cost of living in Toronto. Priceless!
http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/in/Toronto

Maybe if they respect personal space and human rights they wouldn’t be a basement dweller spreading hate?

#61 Frank on 12.06.17 at 8:09 pm

I have yet to meet a person who did not buckle with a 15% or 20% market correction and sell into the teeth of a declining market. Balanced portfolios are the best antidote to that inevitable event. — Garth

You’re meeting him now. And I’m far from the only one. 20 years, two 50% corrections, 2000 and 2009, and 100% equity portfolio. 18 low priced or high growth companies in multiple industries are plenty. And about 95% US traded. Investor knowledge, attitude and expectations are what needs to be adjusted. To make it real for you these are companies such as Alaska Airlines, Apple, Gilead Sciences, Valeant.

And you do have to be smart enough to run from Amazon, facebook, Tesla.

#62 Felix on 12.06.17 at 8:10 pm

Great picture!

Just imagine how much better the world would be if all dogs were put into canoes and paddled into a wintry northern oblivion :)

Even more if they had a realtor in every boat with them….

#63 Tina on 12.06.17 at 8:12 pm

I wish to report #6 for Sexist language, and also a comment from yesterday #2 I think, posted a comment under a handle which was a slang that is derogatory towards the sacred parts of women. Much thanks <3

#64 AGuyInVancouver on 12.06.17 at 8:13 pm

#38 the ryguy on 12.06.17 at 7:07 pm
Hate to constantly be standing up for “crazy white nationalists” and Emperor Trump, but did anyone read TPP?

Cause I did, and guess what, it was terrible for Canada!
Lets say a company that was a mixture of private and state money…oh I can think of one such country with a lot of dough to throw around…China! Anyway, so this blended company “China INC” decides to buy, lets say Delta Hotel. Well, China INC would be allowed to bring in their own workers, of course without paying them the proper EI, CPP etc etc, or without having to respect our human rights/minimum wage and all the stuff regular canadian businesses would have to deal with.

And for the record, T2 would have signed us up for that in a heartbeat had his BFF Hilary won. So once again, you all should thank DJT for not going along with this globalist attempt to end all sovereignty.
_ _ _
You do realize China wasn’t a part of the TPP, right?

In fact TPP was designed as a counterweight to China’s growing influence in Asia. Something neither you, nor Trump seemed to grasp.

#65 Graeme on 12.06.17 at 8:14 pm

Interest rates in the U.S might rise around the time of debt ceiling fiasco but there is room for doubt and caution.

#66 For those about to flop... on 12.06.17 at 8:15 pm

Bob Geldof inspired this article.

Oh….that was Band Aid.

Never mind…

M43BC

“Tracking Billions of Dollars in Foreign Aid in One Map

Donald Trump ran for President on the concept of “America First.” What does this mean in practice for his governing philosophy and foreign policy? Drastic cuts to foreign aid expenditures, namely, the money the U.S. sends to other countries for humanitarian, developmental and economic reasons. This made us wonder how much foreign aid the U.S. currently sends overseas and where the money is going, so we created a new viz.

We compiled data from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) for 2016, the last year for which numbers are available. USAID keeps track of how much money U.S. taxpayers send overseas, what activities we spend it on, and why. We changed the proportions of a world map to represent the countries receiving the most money (the larger the country appears in the viz, the more money it receives). We also color-coded each one according to the purpose of the funds. Mapping USAID activities in this way shows you exactly how and why the U.S. sends money overseas.

First off, you can see a lot of large, red countries on the map from the Middle East, where the U.S. spends billions of dollars each year to reduce conflict, maintain peace and promote stability. This is because foreign aid tends to follow U.S. troop deployments. In fact, the number one and number two recipients of aid—Iraq and Afghanistan—remain major theaters of combat forhundreds of U.S. soldiers. Israel, the third highest recipient on our list, continues to be a strong U.S. ally. President Trump is considering whether to refer to Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, so we suspect the $3.1B Israel receives is likely safe from cuts. In total, the U.S. spends more than $18.3B in conflict reduction.

The second obvious trend in our map is a group of medium-sized pink countries, representing American expenditures for health and population measures across Africa in countries like Kenya and Ethiopia. Taken as a whole, these countries account for $7.2B in expenses. The third most expensive category is for emergency situations, like earthquakes and floods, totaling $6.1B.

At first glance, when you read that the U.S. is sending billions of dollars to other countries, it seems like a ton of wasted money. The total budget for USAID in 2016 that we’ve accounted for here represents $36.1B. Is that a lot of money for an economy with a GDP of $19.5T? What if you consider that President Trump’s budget for the Defense Department alone costs$639B? If these expenditures prevent future conflicts and keep people from starving, perhaps it’s money well spent.

With those caveats in mind, here are the top ten recipients of USAID funds for 2016, broken down to the exact dollar amount.

1. Iraq: $5,281,179,380 (for conflicts, peace and security)

2. Afghanistan: $5,060,306,051 (for conflicts, peace and security)

3. Israel: $3,113,310,210 (for conflicts, peace and security)

4. Egypt: $1,239,291,240 (for conflicts, peace and security)

5. Jordan: $1,214,093,785 (for conflicts, peace and security)

6. Kenya: $1,143,552,649 (for population policies and reproductive health)

7. Ethiopia: $1,111,152,703 (for emergencies)

8. Syria: $916,426,147 (for emergencies)

9. Pakistan: $777,504,870 (for conflicts, peace and security)

10. Uganda: $741,326,448 (for population policies and reproductive health)

The United States sends billions of dollars overseas for a variety of different reasons, but when you look at this list it’s clear that many of these are poor and war-torn places. None of the top twenty countries are even located in the Western Hemisphere. Regardless if you think these are smart investments or wasted dollars, it’s a good idea to know where and why the government spends this much on the other side of the planet.”

#67 Graeme on 12.06.17 at 8:16 pm

Tulips,

Bitcoin much higher? Enjoy the brownouts! Governments will outlaw it VERY soon.

#68 45north on 12.06.17 at 8:18 pm

Garth I have yet to meet a person who did not buckle with a 15% or 20% market correction and sell into the teeth of a declining market.

I’m pretty sure I would buckle.

Bezengy: Here in Gold Town draft is still under $3.00 a glass

Kirkland Lake? at the Fed?

Rexx Rock: As for BOC, we now have a cushion of 3 rate cuts if there is a recession in the next few months to a year or two.

au contraire, we now have no cushion. Three rate cuts would sink the Canadian dollar which would look a lot like a recession.

millmech: People were freaking as they couldn’t afford to miss one weeks pay, some were almost in tears before the company made the pay compromise.

that got my attention

SecretCode: When credit tightens, forced sales become the seed in the system that reprices values

doesn’t seem such a secret

#69 mathman on 12.06.17 at 8:20 pm

The banks I understand have turned off the taps to any lending outside of the box or beyond traditional ratios. That sends people to B lenders, the shadow market , the guy at Bathurst and Lawerence who will buy your jewelery, your house and give your kids a mtg all in one visit.

What I have observed is inventory > $1.2 is not moving too fast or if at all – given the tightening lending standards is that peoples ceiling in an environment of responsible lending – maybe.

I would also assume given the new lending environment, financing conditions are been re written into most deals because unlike the last 5 years + you need more than a heartbeat to get a mortgage now it seems.

Interesting times ahead my fellow dogs.

Math

#70 SimplyPut7 on 12.06.17 at 8:20 pm

Again the warning to speculators in the condo market in Toronto.

37:40min – 40:00min

https://soundcloud.com/simply-real-estate/december-2-2017

When the realtor is concerned, you should be worried.

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.17 at 8:22 pm

@#13 “Dipstick”

#72 TJ on 12.06.17 at 8:24 pm

For the life of me I cannot understand why people would buckle and sell during market correction of 15-20%. A long-term value producing asset has just gone on sale and you bail out? Humans are strange…

#73 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 12.06.17 at 8:24 pm

Unfortunately, there has been a security breach involving NiceHash website. We are currently investigating the nature of the incident and, as a result, we are stopping all operations for the next 24 hours.

Importantly, our payment system was compromised and the contents of the NiceHash Bitcoin wallet have been stolen. We are working to verify the precise number of BTC taken.

Clearly, this is a matter of deep concern and we are working hard to rectify the matter in the coming days. In addition to undertaking our own investigation, the incident has been reported to the relevant authorities and law enforcement and we are co-operating with them as a matter of urgency.

We are fully committed to restoring the NiceHash service with the highest security measures at the earliest opportunity.

We would not exist without our devoted buyers and miners all around the globe. We understand that you will have a lot of questions, and we ask for patience and understanding while we investigate the causes and find the appropriate solutions for the future of the service. We will endeavour to update you at regular intervals.
And the best part:

While the full scope of what happened is not yet known, we recommend, as a precaution, that you change your online passwords. We are truly sorry for any inconvenience that this may have caused and are committing every resource towards solving this issue as soon as possi

#74 When the Whip Comes Down on 12.06.17 at 8:31 pm

At this point in time I am going with rosenberg’s Call which is poloz not moving at all in 2018. Not that I feel this is the right move, but based on poloz’s ways it’s probably the likely outcome based on the current state of affairs.

#75 akashic record on 12.06.17 at 8:31 pm

#52 tulips on 12.06.17 at 7:52 pm

#12 Bitcoinnaire on 12.06.17 at 6:14 pm
Oh look, Bitcoin at $14,000 USD today.

$20,000 before Christmas, and $100K by June. Trajectory of course is a million per unit.

————————————————————–
Why $100K and $1M? Why not $200K in June and ultimately $2M or $10M or $100M? Please provide intelligent reasons and explanation for the price targets if you have them.

—–

Just google it, all the predictions and their reasoning are online.

#76 For those about to flop... on 12.06.17 at 8:43 pm

Yeah, it might be helpful if I put up the link…

M43BC

https://howmuch.net/articles/usa-foreign-aid-by-country

#77 TheSecretCode on 12.06.17 at 8:43 pm

The only competition to Bitcoin today is: Monero.

You may not have heard about it yet, but you will in the future.

#78 Rooster on 12.06.17 at 8:46 pm

#5 Decade on 12.06.17
Stocks should be fine, long term. I doubt stocks can depreciate and stay depreciated for 10 years. Did they ever?
_——_——–
See S&P 500 circa 1929 – 1954
Price break even after 25 years, but you could live on the dividends (if you like Spam, an indigestible meat byproduct).

This time is surely different though, those old timers didn’t even have credit cards.

#79 BTC!!!!!! BTC!!!!!!!!! on 12.06.17 at 8:46 pm

next stop —-$20,000

our balanced portfolio;

house, kids, two cars, bitcoin

when do we sell? LOL

#80 MarcFromOttawa on 12.06.17 at 8:52 pm

Stats Can says only half of Canadians have full-time jobs. Unemployment numbers are cooked.

http://pressprogress.ca/statistics-canada-less-than-half-of-all-canadians-aged-25-54-now-have-full-time-year-round-jobs/

#81 TheSecretCode on 12.06.17 at 8:53 pm

Does anyone remember Napster?

The concept has never been shut down…because you can’t completely shut it down. Dig into the technology a bit. Then dig into the technology of the block chain.

The block chain technology makes your wallet the bank and bankers like Jamie Dimon are terrified about this. Hmmm, I wonder why?

#82 common sense on 12.06.17 at 8:54 pm

Poloz did what he was told to do today and not raise rates…

Naturally the powers that be want the loonie to fall and hold off the 2018 true housing correction as long as possible.

He had his 15 minutes of fame when he raised the rate once this year unexpectedly….

Maybe ONE rate increase in 2018 for Canada and 2 for the USA.

#83 I’m stupid on 12.06.17 at 8:56 pm

#12 Bitcoinaire

Madoff ran a ponzi for over 30 years, but it still ended in tears. You like most investors are stupid, you let greed get in the way of rational thinking. You might be right, Bitcoin could go to infinity or I could be right and it collapses spectacularly. It shouldn’t matter where the price will go. What matters is where it is now. If you have anymore than 10% of your net worth in crypto you’re making a big mistake. Your posts make me believe it’s probably more than 70%.

Take my advice, I’m trying to save you from jumping of a building. This is what I fear the legacy of cryptos will be.

#84 PastThePeak on 12.06.17 at 8:57 pm

I have always rode out the two big crashes in my investment history – never sold anything, though did learn not to buy the dip too early. Both made me more cautious, and have a more balanced portfolio.

Poloz is a real dove – the two rate hikes earlier this year were an anomaly. If the Fed does 4 hikes, i think BoC will only do 2. Poloz wants a dollar under 70c.

Credit is indeed the key issue, and from what I have read it is still expanding. While the Fed stopped their QE a couple of years ago, they have yet to unwind any of that balance sheet. And both ECB and BoJ continue to print money. So money supply still expanding globally even with rate increases. When that stops is when we find out what this last expansion was made of. RE could have a slight rebound until that occurs.

BTC at $1M would put its value within reach of the USA economy…that will be something to see.

#85 Christian on 12.06.17 at 8:57 pm

NiceHash just got hacked.
50-60M dollars worth.

#bitcoin

#86 Crazy millennial on 12.06.17 at 8:58 pm

Just stumbled upon a website that is publishing all real estate sales. House sigma….it’s awesome

#87 Andrew Woburn on 12.06.17 at 9:00 pm

Is Productivity Growth Becoming Irrelevant?

“Our standard mental model of productivity growth reflects the transition from agriculture to industry. We start with 100 farmers producing 100 units of food: technological progress enables 50 to produce the same amount, and the other 50 to move to factories that produce washing machines or cars or whatever. Overall productivity doubles, and can double again, as both agriculture and manufacturing become still more productive, with some workers then shifting to restaurants or health-care services. We assume an endlessly repeatable process.

But two other developments are possible. Suppose the more productive farmers have no desire for washing machines or cars, but instead employ the 50 surplus workers either as low-paid domestic servants or higher-paid artists, providing face-to-face and difficult-to-automate services. Then, as the late William Baumol, a professor at Princeton University, argued in 1966, overall productivity growth will slowly decline to zero, even if productivity growth within agriculture never slows…

The growth of difficult-to-automate service activities may explain some of the productivity slowdown. Britain’s flat productivity reflects a combination of rapid automation in some sectors and rapid growth of low-productivity, low-wage jobs – such as Deliveroo drivers riding around on plain old-fashioned bicycles. In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that eight of the ten fastest-growing job categories are low-wage services such as personal care and home health aides.

The growth of “zero-sum” activities may, however, be even more important. Look around the economy, and it’s striking how much high-talent manpower is devoted to activities that cannot possibly increase human welfare, but entail competition for the available economic pie. Such activities have become ubiquitous: legal services, policing, and prisons; cybercrime and the army of experts defending organizations against it; financial regulators trying to stop mis-selling and the growing ranks of compliance officers employed in response; the huge resources devoted to US election campaigns; real-estate services that facilitate the exchange of already-existing assets; and much financial trading.”

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/productivity-growth-becoming-irrelevant-by-adair-turner-2017-07

#88 I’m stupid on 12.06.17 at 9:04 pm

#75 akashic record

Can you explain the perfect correlation between UST and bitcoin rally’s? It seems to me that the exchanges are pumping the price of bitcoins using bots. For a currency that was intended to be mistrusting you’re trusting unreglated exchanges to operate honestly. What happens if Bitfinex says they got hacked to cover their tracks?

#89 Tony on 12.06.17 at 9:09 pm

Bitcoin best short on the market. When starts trading it will go Go down a bit but start to shoot higher to sucker even more people in. Then they will hit it hard.

#90 I’m stupid on 12.06.17 at 9:09 pm

#39 hahaha

Only a fool would short it. Learn what a short squeeze is. Better to stay completely clear.

#91 AGuyInVancouver on 12.06.17 at 9:13 pm

All the bitcoin pimpers here make me laugh. The fact they use the term “mining” to give the illusion that something of true value is actually being created should be enough to warn you off it. Tulip bulbs for the gamer geek generation.

#92 I thinks I know something on 12.06.17 at 9:17 pm

“Higher rates seem an inevitability, even as Poloz the Dove is wary of cooling off a robust economy too soon.” – Garth

—————————————————————

Higher rates are not inevitable. As soon as the housing market is negatively impacted, rates will stall or even come back down. Poloz is no different than Carney. He’ll do what he’s told.

#93 Ray on 12.06.17 at 9:22 pm

#53 Ray Skunk on 12.06.17 at 7:53 pm
Started shovelling into USD investments when T2 got elected. Doubled down when Trump got in.
Now have more US exposure than Canadian.
Feels good man
———————-
My question would be “Why have any Canadian Exposure?. The liquid growth stuff is in the US, TSX has virtually none. I have been around 90% US since
the $CDN/$US was in the .90s .There is almost nothing in Canadian stocks or ETFs that can beat a US equivalent.

#94 Doug in London on 12.06.17 at 9:26 pm

Yesterday a guy with a million bucks in his portfolio, a good job, nice pension and great future asked me if he should up his risk level and go 75% into stocks.
———————————————————-
I wouldn’t panic and sell your stocks just yet, but when that kind of mentality becomes more prevalent, like it did from 2006 to 2007, it will be time to take a more defensive stance. By that I mean cash in some stocks or equity ETFs that have had a good run and buy more fixed income investments. They tend to get cheaper as interest rates go up.

#95 Lacho on 12.06.17 at 9:28 pm

Stop making fun of Adele. She’s the millennials version of Mama Cass. So…

#96 Doug in London on 12.06.17 at 9:32 pm

@TJ, post #72:
I don’t get it either. Many people will line up outside a store in the cold weather so they can be the first ones in at opening time on Black Friday or Boxing Day to get at the sales. Why isn’t there the same kind of enthusiasm when stocks or equity ETFs go on sale?

#97 Deplorable Dude on 12.06.17 at 9:32 pm

The Deep State whispered to Trump “You cannot withstand the Storm”…….Trump whispered back….”I am the Storm.

BIGLY happenings incoming….

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/12/06/strategic-omnidirectional-maga-winning-is-ongoing/

#98 BillyBob on 12.06.17 at 9:44 pm

#61 Frank on 12.06.17 at 8:09 pm
I have yet to meet a person who did not buckle with a 15% or 20% market correction and sell into the teeth of a declining market. Balanced portfolios are the best antidote to that inevitable event. — Garth

You’re meeting him now. And I’m far from the only one. 20 years, two 50% corrections, 2000 and 2009, and 100% equity portfolio. 18 low priced or high growth companies in multiple industries are plenty. And about 95% US traded. Investor knowledge, attitude and expectations are what needs to be adjusted. To make it real for you these are companies such as Alaska Airlines, Apple, Gilead Sciences, Valeant.

And you do have to be smart enough to run from Amazon, facebook, Tesla.

==================================

Amazing how tough and resilient everyone is when they know their claims will never be proven? lol

All these folks eagerly chiming in how they don’t even blink when 20% of their net worth vaporizes make me laugh.

Here’s the thing – if one was truly that cool a customer, you wouldn’t feel the need to try and proclaim it.

Everyone’s a rock star on the internet.

#99 the ryguy on 12.06.17 at 9:45 pm

#64 AGuyInVancouver on 12.06.17 at 8:13 pm
——————————————————-

Just like they weren’t in the WTO, until they were. It just takes one crooked cop *cough, Bill Clinton* to change it.

If you really think you need the government involved you are beyond help. The EU has 300+ pages on rules involving cabbage, gimme a break.

#100 TheSecretCode on 12.06.17 at 9:51 pm

Final Bitcoin value = (average individual economic productivity) × (number of productive people) ÷ (21 million)

#101 Ace Goodheart on 12.06.17 at 10:15 pm

RE: #2 The big short on 12.06.17 at 5:55 pm
#145 Ace Goodheart
These guys are rarely wrong:

“Not the point, is it?

Yeah, all bubbles pop.
If the bitcoin bubble pops at $1M, then everybody that shorted it at $10k will be bankrupt (!) if they didn’t close their position before that.”

Bitcoin is like the perfect storm for dangerous investing. Here’s why:

1. It’s fundamentally illiquid. You thought flogging a house in a market downturn was hard. You literally cannot sell a bitcoin. The transaction speed is too slow. As long as you have bitcoin exchanges taking dollars and pounds and the like, in exchange for bitcoin that they already have, then the price can keep going up. However, there is no guarantee that those exchanges actually have all of the dollars and pounds that they exchanged for the coin. They are completely unregulated. No one knows what they have. Rush for the door, and you may find that there is no door at all.

2. The value of a bitcoin, as you said, depends on people continuing to buy them. So the question is, if you are buying this stuff, you are giving your money to people who are selling it. You are expecting people to then buy it from you. How do you predict when the biggest idiot has been reached? How do you know that person is not you? At the end of the line, be it $20,000 or $1,000,000.00, someone is going to be left holding the bag.

Bitcoin is scary dangerous.

#102 BG on 12.06.17 at 10:24 pm

#59 Nonplused on 12.06.17 at 8:08 pm

Plus it solves a problem that doesn’t exist. There is no need for Bitcoin. Paypal does the same thing.

*****************************************

Now that’s a good one!

#103 unicorn on 12.06.17 at 10:24 pm

#11 TRUMP on 12.06.17 at 6:12 pm
Garth… Do you remember the wise phrase of mr buffett.

Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; but they tell you nothing about the future.

I tried to warn you!!!! Just admit you were wrong.

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

Never gonna happen.
The man has no testicles,at least not ones visible with the naked eye.

#104 Leo Trollstoy on 12.06.17 at 10:38 pm

No need to thank me.

Called inflation, currency and interest rates.

Looking forward to markets inflating my USD denominated real estate and rent next year.

Life is good

#105 the Jaguar on 12.06.17 at 10:41 pm

Garth, why did you ever open that Pandora’s box with the Bitcoin in it? My finger is getting tired from scrolling past all the tedious comments on the subject.
That dog needs a life jacket. Location looks like BC interior, maybe near Revelstoke. Figures.

#106 Shawn on 12.06.17 at 10:44 pm

TSLA to >$500 in 2018

#107 akashic record on 12.06.17 at 11:21 pm

#88 I’m stupid on 12.06.17 at 9:04 pm

#75 akashic record

Can you explain the perfect correlation between UST and bitcoin rally’s? It seems to me that the exchanges are pumping the price of bitcoins using bots. For a currency that was intended to be mistrusting you’re trusting unreglated exchanges to operate honestly. What happens if Bitfinex says they got hacked to cover their tracks?

Take a look at this real time streaming chart of various exchanges located different part of the world, trading BTC with a whole bunch of fiat and crypto currencies every day, every minute.

https://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

You will notice the wide range of prices and the frequency of trades – unlike any of the stock/ETF/commodity/FOREX fluctuation.

Good luck pumping this, especially at this price.

You don’t trust the exchanges. Unlike your ETFs, stocks you don’t keep there your BTC, only for the shortest time to conduct buying or selling. Once that’s done you move and store your BTC, fiat to a private valet, bank account, etc.

Unlike, stocks, ETFs, bonds, etc. you can even buy or sell with other people directly, bypassing the exchanges, if you wish.

#108 AACI Homedog on 12.06.17 at 11:23 pm

I think it is easy enough to be 90% into stocks, and yet be diversified. You need 7 figures plus though. Isn’t that what you have mentioned previously, Garth ?

You may achieve diversification, but not balance. Same outcome. – Garth

#109 Dangerous on 12.06.17 at 11:25 pm

#101 Ace
“Bitcoin is scary dangerous.”

Yes, buying is dangerous, but not nearly as dangerous as shorting it.

Again, you ignored my point:

It can be the biggest bubble in the world, you still can’t profit as a bear, because it is too dangerous to short.

Think of the 17th century skeptic shorting tulip bulbs when they were a ridiculous 10 guilders.
“No Tulip bulb is worth 10 guilders, when the market crashes, you won’t be able to sell!”
Fine.
Yet: He would have gotten so burnt on his short position.

Almost nobody will be able to short bitcoin and live to tell.
99% of the shorters will ill-time and get skinned alive.

#110 DON on 12.06.17 at 11:54 pm

Bit-pyramid

Every generation seems to have something similar. I remember my parents and their friends (original hippies) talking about the latest pyramid scheme that would make everyone rich as long as there was a fresh supply of greater fools.

So the Facebook twins invested a good portion of the settlement in ….Bit coin and are now Bit coin billion heirs. Gives some prospective doesn’t it.

Throughout the ages context changes but the evolution of human nature is ever so slow.

T2 gets the cold shoulder in China – no trade announcement – Poloz doesn’t move. Sounds about right! What do they see off in the distant or near future? Millmech mentioned the temp mill spring shutdown. They are running out of options and politically the best option is too try to disassociate with the impending housing correction. They know it is inevitable – like standing on a beach watching a tsunami rolling in.

To those who think the gov cares about the indebted masses. The gov does not care about you being unable to make your payments – time to put on the big boy/girl pants. When has this happened before the US?, Ireland? (The list is too too long). LMFAO- ever met the CRA.

It appears the greater van municipality is retreating on cracking down on the extra suites in houses. But will the CRA? Trudeau came back empty handed and the CRA is on the prowl.

#111 SWL1976 on 12.06.17 at 11:55 pm

Awesome post

Lots of info filled with great one liners

I was in a government building the other day and heard someone on the radio babbling about the new stress test and how 2% is much too much… It’s just too much to ask… yada… yada

Things will get interesting

It’s sad we’re led but such an incompetent leader – yes you Justin – who can’t differentiate between real world problems and bullshit distractions…

Or perhaps he can?

#112 AACI Homedog on 12.06.17 at 11:55 pm

Ps…i am one of those who did not flinch too much in the big downturn 9 years ago though. I doubt that I am a rarity.

#113 For those about to flop... on 12.07.17 at 12:12 am

Recent Sale Report.

This one just got a new owner.

No update on zolo yet.

4133 w 11th ave,Vancouver.

Originally asking 2.980 then 2.788

Just sold for 2.700

Tax assessment 3.331

I would like to report on more affordable houses for my blog buddies, but I can only report on what I can get my hands on.

Something is better than nothing…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4133-w-11th-avenue

#114 Guillaume on 12.07.17 at 12:19 am

A low loonie is a good thing to sell our crappy grain fed beef to the EU and prevent them from sending us to much good cheeses….

RIP Johnny Halliday, you could have liked him Garth…

#115 down_boy on 12.07.17 at 12:23 am

#45 Robert B on 12.06.17 at 7:41 pm

A problem with bitcoin. Today is theft.
Nicehash was hacked today .$60 million stolen.
No police investigation . Is there bitcoin police out there?

….
They have the address it was sent to. That address is now blacklisted.

#116 Allan on 12.07.17 at 12:40 am

Revelation:
Garth is the The Most Interesting Financial Advisor in the World

#117 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.07.17 at 12:47 am

Smokie,
Please come back.
I just scanned thru 130 comments.
All are shit?
JD is much cheaper at Costco in the states.
So, what’s your excuse

#118 For those about to flop... on 12.07.17 at 12:50 am

Recent Sale Report.

Here is something a little more affordable but still a laughable product for the money.

1750 e 5th ave Vancouver.

Originally asking 1.388 then 1.288

Just sold for 1.155

Tax assessment 1.361

And so once again one of the cheapest detached options in Vancouver had trouble selling.

Under 1.3 million there are 41 options in Vancouver proper and 8 of these have official reduced stickers and a few more have been taken off and put back up with a new number.

People been talking Porkies That only the top end houses are coming down.

This is simply not true,although if you are not paying attention not much appears to have changed.

Vancouver proper will probably be negative year over year tomorrow.

That doesn’t really matter if you are just using your house as a shelter.

A lot of speculators are down 20% year over year and next year ain’t looking any better.

Condo owners that waited four years for the market to catch up are now realizing how much inventory is out there or soon will be and are taking losses.They also waited four years for their assessments to catch up to help validate their purchase and then when they got close in 2015 they went backwards in 2016.

I have studied thousands of properties and only a small percentage have decided to take a loss most of them wait ,suspended in thin air with the occasional cloud buffering other people’s hopes and dreams.

What’s gonna happen next year?

Dunno,but I’ll report it on this blog and speaking of Porkies.

Th Th Th That’s all folks…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1750-e-5th-avenue

#119 Karma on 12.07.17 at 1:04 am

#63 Tina on 12.06.17 at 8:12 pm
“I wish to report #6 for Sexist language, and also a comment from yesterday #2 I think, posted a comment under a handle which was a slang that is derogatory towards the sacred parts of women. Much thanks <3"

This is not a "safe space". If your skin is too thin, please stop reading the comments section.

#120 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 12.07.17 at 1:11 am

I bought crashing Blue Chippers in 09 when everyone was bailing, I did ok and still hold the stocks today, and they still pay me dividends.

#121 Dolce Vita on 12.07.17 at 2:37 am

Quelle surprise.

Zolo.ca shows for the 1st time, in who knows how long, a Vancouver yr/yr RE price change of:

-1.5%

All of Flops posts are starting to show up now in the grander scheme of YVR RE affairs.

Though, the average price is still a ridiculous $1.2 MM ($836 K median price).

#122 AGuyInVancouver on 12.07.17 at 3:06 am

57 Long-time Lurker
Aww, boohoo, I’m crushed. BTW you’re wrong and wrong.

#123 tulips on 12.07.17 at 3:33 am

#75 akashic record on 12.06.17 at 8:31 pm
#52 tulips on 12.06.17 at 7:52 pm

#12 Bitcoinnaire on 12.06.17 at 6:14 pm
Oh look, Bitcoin at $14,000 USD today.

$20,000 before Christmas, and $100K by June. Trajectory of course is a million per unit.

————————————————————–
Why $100K and $1M? Why not $200K in June and ultimately $2M or $10M or $100M? Please provide intelligent reasons and explanation for the price targets if you have them.

—–

Just google it, all the predictions and their reasoning are online.

—————————————————————

Help me out here akashic record. The reasoning I see out there is that the value of bitcoin isn’t rising so much as the value of the dollar is dropping. But my salary and bills are very little changed over 2017, while the value of bitcoin has gone vertical so that doesn’t explain it. Please point me to a good source that clearly articulates and justifies why a bitcoin will be worth $1M in a few years.

#124 Blobby on 12.07.17 at 3:38 am

I went against my better nature and gambled on bitcoin, I only put in $100, which is the most I’ve ever gambled on anything.

I don’t consider it investing.. I’ve “won” $80 already.. I’ll stick it out, worst case scenario, I’ve lost $100.

Sure, I’m not gonna (to quote trump) “win biggly” on this.. but it’s like playing lottery with a bit more fun involved as I can see it change hourly.

.. those of you investing serious coin into it though? Wow.. give your heads a shake,

#125 Big Daddy on 12.07.17 at 3:39 am

#5…..Garth…..you just met one…..who hasn’t yet buckled and sold in any of the past 20% correction’s. Why don’t I panic…..because 100% of the issues I own pay dividends and provide the same cash flow post crash as before. It’s very rare for a company to reduce or cancel it’s dividend. The steady cash flow gives me the opportunity to buy more of the same stocks at cheaper prices, which in turn pays me more as I collect more units. When the market recovers I’m first in line to pick up the capital gains….from companies like Rogers…that gave me 30% this year plus the divvie.

Ilove stock market correction’s. I’ve made myself a millionaire by never blinking. Watch “The Gambler” with John Goodman and Mark Wahlberg. There’s a scene where Goodman describes his personal life philosophy to Wahlberg, who’s screwed up badly living his life like a card game. ” Goodman says…” You got to have the fuck you”. Wahlberg is blank and Goodman explains ” you have to be able to cover every bet no matter what goes wrong”. He explains that he can withstand any blow….a business failure, a personal failure, a job loss, a market crash, anything.

I wrote that…..and it created from personal experience. Thee ‘balanced approach’ you tout needs to be toughened up to include the ability to withstand any blow….meaning cash flow and income no matter what happens. I originally designed this for my clients….I called it “The Fuck You Resume”….meaning no matter what…..my wife and I can always go to Maui for five years until the depression blows over. ……and be able to give a middle finger and a wave goodbye to everyone….. It’s all about balls and personal organization.

#126 Tony on 12.07.17 at 3:53 am

Re: #89 Tony on 12.06.17 at 9:09 pm

We’ll see December 10th and I’m betting the shorts will get wiped out in three days or less. No one will go short Bitcoin after that. The headlines will read what happened to the Bitcoin short sellers?

#127 Howard on 12.07.17 at 4:48 am

#95 Lacho on 12.06.17 at 9:28 pm

Stop making fun of Adele. She’s the millennials version of Mama Cass. So…

————————————-

Truth.

In this 1965 Mamas & Papas video, you’d swear that that was Adele time-travelling.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-aK6JnyFmk

#128 under the radar on 12.07.17 at 6:05 am

“The feds are handing out tens of billions a year that they don’t have, spending up a storm on critical economic issues like compensating gay people and gender equity. ”

Arguably a majority of voters see these issues as priorities while fiscal responsibility is relegated to a previous era.

#129 Nick on 12.07.17 at 6:36 am

I too did not flinch during the tech bubble correction in 2000/01. I have a nice capital gains loss in Nortel thanks to it. At the time, the “experts” were calling Warren Buffet a dinosaur, a has been. Well we still see his name, and I haven’t seen the “experts”

I agree with the other sentiments; everyone is a rock star on the internet.

#130 Ace Goodheart on 12.07.17 at 6:58 am

Re: #115 down_boy on 12.07.17 at 12:23 am

“They have the address it was sent to. That address is now blacklisted.”

That fixes the problem. Put an IP address in prison. That’ll teach that darn address to go robbing people of bitcoin.

Meanwhile, an actual person is off to the tropics to live a life of splendour and ease in a tax haven, on a beach somewhere, surrounded no doubt by servants, money and all that comes with that. While drinking champagne on their new yacht, I’m sure they’ll be upset that their IP address got blacklisted.

#131 Ace Goodheart on 12.07.17 at 7:03 am

RE: #109 Dangerous:

“Almost nobody will be able to short bitcoin and live to tell.
99% of the shorters will ill-time and get skinned alive.”

Very true.

My thoughts on bitcoin is that investors should stay away from it.

Investing in bitcoin is like poking a tiger with a stick, when you are in the cage with the tiger. It is just too dangerous. You have no idea what it is going to do.

#132 Ace Goodheart on 12.07.17 at 7:08 am

RE: #106 Shawn on 12.06.17 at 10:44 pm
TSLA to >$500 in 2018

They’ve made 222 model 3 cars to date. They are making three cars per day right now on a full line. The industry standard is one car per minute.

They are burning cash like a 60s hippie bonfire style thing.

They will be going back to the capital markets in early 2018 to get more money. This during a time when they cannot even build the flagship car that was going to save them and make them profitable.

They are a car company, and they cannot figure out how to program a welding robot.

Their CEO has decided that, while his car company cannot get a welding robot to actually weld, he is going to make plans to bring people to Mars, on spaceships that do not exist, using technology that has not been invented yet.

They do make very nice sports cars. So did Delorean.

I would not short them, because they have this fanatical following that would remain irrational longer than I could remain solvent.

But there is no money in that company. And there never will be. It is a money pit.

#133 Victor V on 12.07.17 at 7:54 am

64% of Canadians say their holiday spending is ‘out of control’: Poll

https://www.bnn.ca/64-of-canadians-say-their-holiday-spending-is-out-of-control-poll-1.937134

#134 Steven Rowlandson on 12.07.17 at 7:59 am

Now that the USD is competing with Bitcoin at over $14,912 per bitcoin the idea that interest rates must rise to defend the USD is possible. It would also mean the downfall of government debt and real estate prices as escalating interest rates make debt more and more difficult to pay without default or hyperinflation.
I would expect some kind of government intervention to curb the rise or existence of Bitcoin if things continue much longer. Some people are calling for $500,000 to ten million USD Bitcoin. I think an official counter attack of some kind will occur before this happens.

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.17 at 8:03 am

@#128 under the radar

“Arguably a majority of voters see these issues as priorities while fiscal responsibility is relegated to a previous era….”
++++

Canada.
Formerly a nation of “Drawers of water and hewers of wood”
Currently a nation of “Drawers of coffee and hewers of paperwork.”

#136 TurnerNation on 12.07.17 at 8:23 am

**Shocking fact about Ontariowe’s new min wage hikes (to $14 in Jan, $15 next Jan)

– This will *hurt* minimum wage earners:
– Already large and small stores are scrambling to cut their hours of opening. Retail dying anyway.
– Fewer employees, and jobs will be needed.
– Remaining workers will be pushed even harder.
– Expect NO on the job raises. You just got 10 years of raises at once. Never again.
– No bonuses, paid overtime.
– Small business owners under double attack via latest tax theft scheme.

You know who will work long hard hours without complaint? Not Millennials but Temporary Foreign Workers. And they will be remitting their new found cash OVERSEAS as they do!

Wage Kontrols in Kanada. Good little Mills spent from age 5 to 24 pleasing State-paid teachers.
They come out and find their maximum wage for over 1/2 the jobs out there now is $15 hr.
Whereas, a TFW jets in, get paid, sends it back home to a family which now lives the good life.

Did our govt plan this all along, to further rob money from the rich and send it overseas?

#137 TurnerNation on 12.07.17 at 8:40 am

Sheppard Ave in Toronto between say Downsview and Yonge St. is/was lined with little choc-a-bloc full plazas and sht bungs.
Passing by I saw almost every one one signed, slated for re-development. Into Kandos of course. With a Sbux/Timmies/Subway/Rexall/Shoppers to be in its new base I’m sure.

War on independence continues. Goal is all of us helpless on the govt teat, onto the new Maximum Wage of $15 and Guaranteed Minimum income.
We pretend to work, they pretend to pay us.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2017/12/06/the-strip-mall-is-the-final-outpost-of-independent-commerce-in-toronto.html

#138 IHCTD9 on 12.07.17 at 8:48 am

Hey, it’s not all bad news. My government employed wife came home yesterday with a letter indicating that her, and all her co-workers; were all getting a fat raise along with a hot and greasy retroactive cheque to boot.

#139 Cto on 12.07.17 at 8:54 am

Interest rates in Canada should never have dropped below 1.5% and should be at at least 2% right now!
Lowering interest rates to near zero levels has created enormous moral hazard around the world by many Central bankers and Poloz is just following their lead.
Now they’re in a trap of their own making and they don’t have the balls to do the right thing.

#140 Bottoms_Up on 12.07.17 at 9:04 am

How to spin negative pricing news into ‘rising prices’:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/tighter-mortgage-rules-in-new-year-may-be-driving-ottawa-house-price-hikes

#141 Tater on 12.07.17 at 9:10 am

#5 Decade on 12.06.17 at 6:00 pm
Maybe the guy with a million bucks in his portfolio knows that he will not be needing his capital for the next ten years?

Stocks should be fine, long term. I doubt stocks can depreciate and stay depreciated for 10 years. Did they ever?
————————————————————–
Say hello to Japan!

#142 Bitcoin or Bust on 12.07.17 at 9:46 am

Yeah baby .. to the stars.. now the official currency of the plant..

1 Bitcoin equals
563100488.60 Iranian Rial

#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.17 at 9:51 am

@#138 IHCTD9
“Hey, it’s not all bad news. My government employed wife came home yesterday with a letter indicating that her, and all her co-workers; were all getting a fat raise along with a hot and greasy retroactive cheque to boot.”

++++++

Hate to burst your euphoria.

Its just another Pheonix payroll screwup burped out by the billion dollar baby that hasn’t learned how to count yet……….

#144 crossbordershopper on 12.07.17 at 9:52 am

interest rates mean very little, taxes as well, its all about income thats 80% of the total question. You got to make money, preferably in US $, once you have income you can manage your affairs better, lower costs, buy bulk etc, then you work on lowering your taxes, then you have disposable income, once thats in, you pay down debt and interest rates are either zero or low because you have lots equity .
Canadians generally dont make a lot of money, and are paid in Canadian Dollars, add in taxes and rates, and wow, terrible.

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.17 at 9:56 am

@#127 Howard
“In this 1965 Mamas & Papas video, you’d swear that that was Adele time-travelling….”

*****

Ummm. Respectfully.

Time you seek out a new optometrist

#146 Tony on 12.07.17 at 9:58 am

Re: #141 Tater on 12.07.17 at 9:10 am

Try the 1972 to 1982 decade where inflation raged and the stock market went nowhere during those years. The 1966 to 1982 era stocks were the wrong place to be.

#147 SilverSon on 12.07.17 at 10:01 am

I wonder how much of Bitcoin’s increase in value is a result of ex-RE speculators in cities where there’s been a massive RE bubbles. Places like Sydney, Stockholm, Munich, Vancouver, Toronto, etc. Speculators looking for their next “high” on a get-rich-quick scheme. On a world stage I wonder if Vancouver, Toronto and some of those other cities have earned a reputation of having some of the most gullible speculators on the planet. Bitcoin being untraceable I suppose we’ll never know. Odd that the first Bitcoin ATM in the entire world was placed in Vancouver. Why there?

#148 SilverSon on 12.07.17 at 10:12 am

#34 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 12.06.17 at 7:02 pm

“Interest rates hikes a la USA would crush us.”

Wow, that’s not a good position to be in at all. Terrifying that anyone (let alone a whole country) would let things get that bad and not do anything about it.

#149 Mattl on 12.07.17 at 10:24 am

Flop that North Van home was the first sale in at least three years and sold for 500k over previous years assessment. The owners likely made between 1 and 2mm tax free dollars. Focusing on ask price and overblown assessments is a fools game. In the case of that house the city decided the property was worth 50% more than previous year. Thats clearly a cash grab and to use it as some sort of data point on health of RE in YVR shows a lack of understanding on the market.

Assessments in YVR have always trailed sales numbers, in some cases dramatically. The districts attempted to get ahead of growth, and in turn delivered bloated assessments so they can soak homeowners for tax dollars. I mean a 50% increase after year over year of 20% growth? There was no reasonable way that house would ever sell near assessment. Can we agree that the fact that the house didn’t sell for 50% more than previous year assessment is not an indicator of a falling market? If we are using assessments, wouldn’t the fact the house sold for 25% more then previous years indicate a hot market? Or are assessments just a wildly variable data point that should be mostly ignored.

#150 Photocopies Accepted on 12.07.17 at 10:31 am

Garth, please, please, an explanation…

The CEO of Laurentien Bank said on BNN that he urges people not to falsify documentation. Can you please education us tonight or tomorrow on what exactly people can forge? I thought banks were getting salary slips (T4) not from applicants but from the CRA?

Are people sending photocopies of their slips to banks and credit unions? Photocopies that even a 14 year old can forge?

Thanks

#151 SilverSon on 12.07.17 at 10:32 am

#100 TheSecretCode on 12.06.17 at 9:51 pm

“Final Bitcoin value = (average individual economic productivity) × (number of productive people) ÷ (21 million)”

Anything multiplied by zero is zero. “Average individual economic productivity” has been getting closer and closer to zero throughout the entire evolution of humankind and is accelerating towards it. Look at me – I’m reading and responding to this pathetic blog instead of working right now.

#152 Smoking Man on 12.07.17 at 10:41 am

117 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.07.17 at 12:47 am
Smokie,
Please come back.
I just scanned thru 130 comments.
All are shit?
JD is much cheaper at Costco in the states.
So, what’s your excuse.
……

Had to sign a 20 page code of conduct document. A lot of lefty loons know who I am. So I need to behave. Plus not drinking during the week. So no feeling of writing.

#153 Jackie Stalworth on 12.07.17 at 10:47 am

Where are those higher interest rates I keeping hearing about every day, month year.

It is BS. The Canada 10 year is now 1.84%, 30 year is now 2.15%. Down they keep going!

I think most people are more concerned with the cost of HELOCs and mortgages than 30-year bond yields. – Garth

#154 Ubul on 12.07.17 at 10:48 am

#128 under the radar on 12.07.17 at 6:05 am
“The feds are handing out tens of billions a year that they don’t have, spending up a storm on critical economic issues like compensating gay people and gender equity. ”

Arguably a majority of voters see these issues as priorities.

Trudeau’s government has not provided any proof of that before or prior writing the checks.

#155 fancy_pants on 12.07.17 at 11:13 am

Inflation cannot be kept at bay indefinitely with all the credit expansion and low rates. The economy’s overall debt load is exceeding the growth of incomes. No lessons have been learned. Expansionary monetary policy has become the new ‘normal’.

#156 Guy in Calgary on 12.07.17 at 11:27 am

BTC hits $17.6k USD. Up and up this thing goes.

#157 Ubul on 12.07.17 at 11:27 am

For those keeping track, this is how long it has taken the cryptocurrency to cross the key psychological levels:

$0000 – $1000: 1789 days
$1000- $2000: 1271 days
$2000- $3000: 23 days
$3000- $4000: 62 days
$4000- $5000: 61 days
$5000- $6000: 8 days
$6000- $7000: 13 days
$7000- $8000: 14 days
$8000- $9000: 9 days
$9000-$10000: 2 days
$10000-$11000: 1 day
$11000-$12000: 6 days
$12,000-$13,000: 17 hours
$13,000-$14,000: 4 hours
$14,000-$15,000: 10 hours
$15,000-$16,000: 5 hours
$16,000-$17,000: 2 hours
$17,000-$18,000: 10 Minutes

#158 RyYYZ on 12.07.17 at 11:48 am

#12 Bitcoinnaire on 12.06.17 at 6:14 pm

How much do you really believe that BTC is just going up, up, up? If you’re as certain as you sound, I expect you’ve got every dollar you can spare in it?

#159 disagree on 12.07.17 at 11:53 am

Yesterday a guy with a million bucks in his portfolio, a good job, nice pension and great future asked me if he should up his risk level and go 75% into stocks. So typical. So dangerous.

………..

75/25 allocation is ‘dangerous’? how so?

would depend on his time horizon. For a 18 yr old (my son) as an example its 100 % equities.

if that chap is 35 yrs old and has a time horizon of 25 yrs, HISTORICALLY no problem whatsoever with said allocation. It’s not ‘dangerous’…..knowledge is the antidote of fear

#160 Fiat is dead on 12.07.17 at 11:56 am

The fed and the banksters have been slayed. Bitcoin forever.

#161 IHCTD9 on 12.07.17 at 12:00 pm

A couple other things to keep in mind when pondering the future finances of Canada, and your home Province.

1. Youth is the spit and vinegar that keeps an economy going full steam ahead. They invent the next big thing, their brains can go into overdrive to figure out all the problems and achieve the goal. They innovate. They dream big, and can work dawn till dusk. They provide the next generation of workers through their kids. They have easily reconnected brain pathways giving a clear edge over us old farts (who don’t care, or need to change; or work harder)

Right now I see too much of our youthful vigour going into low priority, and low societal value pursuits. More than ever our youth are not forming families and raising kids. More than ever our youth are moving out of the country for better prospects elsewhere.

2. The rise of Women. It is beyond clear in Canada that Women are taking more and more of a leadership role in government, and in society at large. They are increasingly better educated than Men, have MUCH better employment prospects than Men, and in reality, it will not be long before they earn more than Men too. Women are clearly taking MOST leading roles in Canadian society.

At the same time, many Canadian Men seem to have utterly lost the ambition to lead – preferring a round or two of Mario Kart instead. I see this in Politics, Community Organizations, Churches, Charities, Fundraisers, Food Banks, Youth Groups, volunteering, raising kids, – just about anywhere outside private sector business ownership you will see a Woman making the decisions and doing all the work.

So – Women are soon to be running the show, and will concentrate on what’s most important to them. They will because Women will show up to vote and to the protests, but Men will stay home and play the PS4.

So the 64 million dollar question now is:

“What do young Women want?”

#162 LivinLarge on 12.07.17 at 12:06 pm

“I thought banks were getting salary slips (T4) not from applicants but from the CRA?” first off NO. The CRA won’t even talk to your tax preparer without a signed authorization.

And with the provincial and federal privacy laws that came into effect around 2001, there is so much that lenders can’t actually independently confirm and simply have to rely on signed declarations from borrowers. Things like where cash down payments come from and maybe even income claims from self employed folks.

#163 Capt. Serious on 12.07.17 at 12:24 pm

Bitcoin traded over $16k today. Tulip Mania is here.

#164 JohnnyBoy on 12.07.17 at 12:26 pm

Smoking Man effect for sure.

https://www.today.com/video/president-trump-seems-to-slur-words-in-speech-stirring-speculation-1111391299814

#165 Prop Tax on 12.07.17 at 12:50 pm

#149 Mattl
“The districts attempted to get ahead of growth, and in turn delivered bloated assessments so they can soak homeowners for tax dollars.”

That is not how property tax works.

Absolute tax in-take is independent of the home capital.

If home prices double, the property tax rate will halve.
(And then add a few points what the city calls “inflation” but is actually a bit more.)

So assessments do not influence the intake of property tax at all.

Every year, the city decides how much tax it wants, in absolute terms.
Then it sums all assessments, and calculates the tax rate from that.

#166 Ole Doberman on 12.07.17 at 12:52 pm

bitcoin is the play of a lifetime.

I just backed up the truck big time!

#167 Productivity on 12.07.17 at 12:54 pm

#151 Silverson
“Anything multiplied by zero is zero. “Average individual economic productivity” has been getting closer and closer to zero throughout the entire evolution of humankind and is accelerating towards it. Look at me – I’m reading and responding to this pathetic blog instead of working right now.”

Tell that to the 14 yo Chinese girl assembling your $1200 phone.

Just because you don’t produce, does not mean others don’t.

#168 MaxtheTax on 12.07.17 at 12:56 pm

After the Hindenburg disaster, Bitcoin is beyond a shadow of a doubt the most exciting to watch!

#169 fancy_pants on 12.07.17 at 1:01 pm

@#138 IHCTD9

PSAC has been furiously reaching tentative agreements with many groups. The upside to the delayed signings are the large retroactive paycheques… for some, just in time for xmas.

Guess what they are fighting for next? 10 Paid Days Of Domestic Violence Leave. If and when they get it, encourage your spouse to take boxing lessons and claim another two weeks of paid leave.

Oh the pendulum has swung. Unions defending public pursed employees have lost their purpose. They no longer protect the vulnerable, they protect the lazy.

#170 fancy_pants on 12.07.17 at 1:04 pm

… I am not saying all public employees are lazy, but the unions certainly don’t motivate one to work harder when the guy beside you gets the same pay for half the work.

#171 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.07.17 at 1:04 pm

#77 TheSecretCode on 12.06.17 at 8:43 pm
The only competition to Bitcoin today is: Monero.

You may not have heard about it yet, but you will in the future.
—————–
Monero.
Which soccer club does he play for?

#172 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.07.17 at 1:11 pm

#115 down_boy on 12.07.17 at 12:23 am
#45 Robert B on 12.06.17 at 7:41 pm

A problem with bitcoin. Today is theft.
Nicehash was hacked today .$60 million stolen.
No police investigation . Is there bitcoin police out there?

….
They have the address it was sent to. That address is now blacklisted.
——–
Yeah, that should teach them.

#173 BTC LOL on 12.07.17 at 1:13 pm

what a gong show…

hahahaha.. the biggest pump and dump in recent history

keep on buyin’ folks! provided you find an exchange that’s open for business

coinbase.com – DOWN
BITSTAMP.net – DOWN

Listen to Garth and stay as far away as you can!

#174 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.07.17 at 1:20 pm

#152 Smoking Man on 12.07.17 at 10:41 am
117 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.07.17 at 12:47 am
Smokie,
Please come back.
I just scanned thru 130 comments.
All are shit?
JD is much cheaper at Costco in the states.
So, what’s your excuse.
……

Had to sign a 20 page code of conduct document. A lot of lefty loons know who I am. So I need to behave. Plus not drinking during the week. So no feeling of writing.
—————
So, yor giving up on being the next Hemmingway.
Shame on you.

#175 IHCTD9 on 12.07.17 at 1:24 pm

#154 Ubul on 12.07.17 at 10:48 am
#128 under the radar on 12.07.17 at 6:05 am
“The feds are handing out tens of billions a year that they don’t have, spending up a storm on critical economic issues like compensating gay people and gender equity. ”

Arguably a majority of voters see these issues as priorities.

Trudeau’s government has not provided any proof of that before or prior writing the checks.
___________________________

As hard as it may be to understand – many Canadians could well see blowing BILLIONS upon BILLIONS on absolutely nothing as a good idea. Many Canadians also work for the Government directly or indirectly, and a new 100 Million dollar study on how the colour of grass affects visible minorities may be just what these folks want.

I asked a young co-worker of mine if handing a Billion over to some random third world country, no strings attached; to fight Climate Change is a good idea. She immediately said yes.

Should we spend a lot of effort and hundreds of millions on specialized considerations for a fractional percentage of our population? She wanted to know which people I was talking about…

#176 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.07.17 at 1:27 pm

Just love this BTC thingy.
Everyone talks about . Nobody has a clue how it works.
There’s excitement in the air.
Bre-x was about mining, too.
Coincidence? Don’t think so.

#177 paulo on 12.07.17 at 1:28 pm

well it looks like the bitcoin ponzi might just exceed the great Canadian real estate ponzi play for number of suckers pulled in go figure!

#178 the ryguy on 12.07.17 at 1:33 pm

“What do young Women want?”

Hahahahahaha, good luck with this one.

If they were in charge the laws would change hourly.

#179 Nice Curves on 12.07.17 at 1:34 pm

Whenever the profit prophets begin analyzing the shape of the US Treasuries yield curve you know that forces of macroeconomic proportions are at play. What they might forget to mention is that today’s yield curve is artificially shifted downwards because of the Federal Reserve meddling in QE’s 1, 2, and 3. So any historical comparisons are fatuous.

The ebb tide for the market of stocks begins when the 10-year Treasury yield surpasses the S&P 500 dividend yield by 1 or 2 %, and investing in a sure thing becomes the fad. Today, the difference is only 0.5%, but what would it be if the 10-year yield was a true reflection of demand ? We should pray the US doesn’t give anyone a reason to stop buying their bonds. OK, let’s get back to the mashugana….

#180 jess on 12.07.17 at 1:46 pm

trump slurring his words….fake slur or will he step down to due “health” issues lol

=======
…”In a major decision last week, California’s Public Utilities Commission ruled that a San Diego utility was responsible for a 2007 fire. The utility had to pay nearly $400 million in damages and was forbidden from passing those charges onto customers. ”
===============
GE -loophole
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/28/AR2009062802955.html

“check the box” loophole
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax-checkthebox-insight/insight-how-treasurys-tax-loophole-mistake-saves-companies-billions-each-year-idUSBRE94T17K20130531

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-a-loophole-benefits-general-electric-628
=========
Jared Kushner By Day: Mideast Peace. Kushner Companies By Night: Donating to a West Bank Settlement.
While Jared Kushner is working on a peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians, the Kushner Companies Charitable Foundation is funding a controversial West Bank settlement.

by Justin Elliott Dec. 6, 10:57 a.m. EST

https://www.propublica.org/article/jared-kushner-kushner-companies-donating-west-bank-settlement

#181 aa5 on 12.07.17 at 1:47 pm

According to our propaganda, what all Canadian young women want is to spend their 20’s and 30’s working in a low paid job in some faceless bureaucracy.

#182 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.07.17 at 1:47 pm

#161 IHCTD9 on 12.07.17 at 12:00 pm sez:

“So the 64 million dollar question now is:

What do young Women want?”

——————————————————

That’s an easy one. They want fried ice…

#183 SoggyShorts on 12.07.17 at 2:06 pm

#143 IHCTD9 on 12.06.17 at 4:21 pm
From yesterday. I know you said it’s not a big deal, but by waiting for a fat refund before investing you are about 1 year behind.
Since you read this blog I’m guessing you have a balanced porfolio, and I saw a post of yours where you are expecting a 5 digit return. That means you are losing out on around $1,000 of growth in your portfolio, in a year, which isn’t peanuts.

#184 Doug in London on 12.07.17 at 2:16 pm

I’m amazed at all this talk about Bitcoin, especially considering it’s not even the subject of this post. Why would any sane person invest in something so GROSSLY overpriced but doesn’t even pay any dividends? Why not invest in something that’s actually quite cheap now like HNY-T that, at today’s price, pays a yield of 10.39% instead?

#185 Lee on 12.07.17 at 2:30 pm

I’m curious, a few weeks back Garth proposed the recommended allocation percentages (as he’s done many times before). But the most recent recommendation was heavy on Maple 21% VS only 16% US.

This is basically flipped from last year where the chat was ‘be careful with maple exposure’. It seems now, more than ever, maple exposure is volatile. But favoured in the allocation only exceeded by international / emerging.

Do people favour Canadian bonds or US bonds for the safety balancing?

#186 Newcomer on 12.07.17 at 2:32 pm

#161 IHCTD9 on 12.07.17 at 12:00 pm

So the 64 million dollar question now is:

“What do young Women want?”
————-

That’s been the top question since the days when we lived in caves.

#187 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.17 at 2:54 pm

@#161 IHCTD9
“At the same time, many Canadian Men seem to have utterly lost the ambition to lead – preferring a round or two of Mario Kart instead. I see this in Politics, Community Organizations, Churches, Charities, Fundraisers, Food Banks, Youth Groups, volunteering, raising kids, – just about anywhere outside private sector business ownership you will see a Woman making the decisions and doing all the work. ”
*****

Or Men have utterly given up on participating when they realized that to be a man in todays society you’re not allowed to have an opinion on anything without being labeled, sexist, racist, homophobic, stupid, misogynistic, and on and on and on.
Which is fine.
Just don’t bitch when a stupid man hands you a bill for $2000 to replace your toilet with a bidet….

Let the women become the next derided, mocked, hated gender.
Men have had enough

#188 Renter's Revenge! on 12.07.17 at 2:57 pm

#161 IHCTD9 on 12.07.17 at 12:00 pm
So the 64 million dollar question now is:
“What do young Women want?”

=============================

I still remember from my second year cultural anthropology course in university, we were taught that in hunter-gatherer societies women brought 80% of the calories back to the village (mostly from gathering nuts, fruits, vegetables, etc.) while men brought back the other 20% (mostly from hunting). Women also formed the center of tribes, while men acted on the periphery.

I have a theory that we are returning to this sort of arrangement after a brief 6000 year period (out of 6 million years of human evolution) of men being the main breadwinners and being in charge of society at large, while women stayed home and took care of all the menial tasks like cooking and cleaning. It will just look like the modern version of a hunter-gatherer society.

If you look at where men and women are happiest in life, the current trend (the one you described) makes sense. Men need freedom and adventure and risk taking, hence the interest in cars, sports, video games, outdoor activity, private businesses and the stock market. Women need to be stationary and centered and in control of everything, hence women becoming more educated and taking more leadership roles in government and community organizations than men.

I’m not saying that all men do this while all women do that. I’m just saying, if there’s a future where everyone (or at least more people) can be happy, then maybe the progress towards it isn’t such a bad thing.

#189 Trader Vic on 12.07.17 at 3:01 pm

#184 Doug in London on 12.07.17 at 2:16 pm
Why not invest in something that’s actually quite cheap now like HNY-T that, at today’s price, pays a yield of 10.39% instead?
_————-
Is this a riddle? Maybe cuz the price of HNY-T has dropped by ~$6 this year while you collected ~$1 in dividends. Most of the previous years were much worse. Do you know what this ETF is for? It predicts the volume of gas that spews from Trump’s thunderbox. Please read the prospectus.

#190 BTC ICO on 12.07.17 at 3:03 pm

How many ICOs are you guys seeing currently being advertised… you know the fancy websites, the “white paper” and the high tech jargon that you just have to buy into now or be priced out forever?

ICO is the crypto version of IPO. Every ICO can be purchased with another crypto that’s already around trading. I guess the BTC trillionaires can keep buying up their own next dreams of another scam.

It’s all scam and no, fiat is nothing like this. Fiat is backed by taxes and cryptos are backed by nothing, well maybe tax evasion?

When the Winkelvoss twins were declared richer than Warren Buffet riding on BTC fumes, it was obviously the top signal.

#191 Use the COC agreement on 12.07.17 at 3:19 pm

#152 Smoking Man on 12.07.17 at 10:41 am

117 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.07.17 at 12:47 am
Smokie,
Please come back.
I just scanned thru 130 comments.
All are shit?
JD is much cheaper at Costco in the states.
So, what’s your excuse.
……
Had to sign a 20 page code of conduct document. A lot of lefty loons know who I am. So I need to behave. Plus not drinking during the week. So no feeling of writing.
……………………………………………………………….
Follow the COC Mr. SM here at PIMCO we are aware.

#192 SilverSon on 12.07.17 at 3:31 pm

#167 Productivity on 12.07.17 at 12:54 pm

“Tell that to the 14 yo Chinese girl assembling your $1200 phone.”

Is she buying Bitcoin? If not your point (while true) is not in the same context as the point being made. Talking about the maximum value of Bitcoin we were. I also don’t have a $1200 phone either. I get razzed all the time for having a phone from 2011 but I don’t care – I can still call all my employees and clients from it and they can’t tell. Plus my data plan is HUGE!!

#193 yupkime on 12.07.17 at 3:43 pm

This Housesigma site is great! Hopefully available in every province soon!

Look at this random beauty!
Literally the first house I zoomed in on.

http://housesigma.com/site/search/house/E3995161

Listing History
Listed for $1,080,000(For sale)
List:2017-11-27End:
E3995161

Listed for $1,438,800(Terminated)
List:2017-11-08End:2017-11-27
E3978354

Listed for $1,538,800(Sold)
List:2017-04-27End:2017-07-17
E3778774

Listed for $1,288,888(Terminated)
List:2017-04-13End:2017-04-27
E3761650

#194 nah on 12.07.17 at 3:50 pm

what a gong show…

hahahaha.. the biggest pump and dump in recent history

keep on buyin’ folks! provided you find an exchange that’s open for business

coinbase.com – DOWN
BITSTAMP.net – DOWN

Listen to Garth and stay as far away as you can!

…………….

down because of crazy volume.

just wait until the future market opens. It’s not for everyone..and neither is a ‘globally diversified portfolio’

experts?…let’s keep in mind Garth was remindig everyone how it went from 11,000 to 9000 a few days ago…..its at 15,000. OUCH

That is exactly why you should not go near this thing. Easy to buy. Almost impossible to sell. Totally unregulated market. Risk in extreme. — Garth

#195 TnT on 12.07.17 at 3:55 pm

#161 IHCTD9 on 12.07.17 at 12:00 pm

Great Post!

You can almost make a direct link to the change in our society where 30 years ago we all accepted and promoted that Girls can be and do anything they want.

This meant skip rope OR play hockey, to be a Nurse OR be a Doctor. It was perfect.

Each girl could without stigmatization grow and fill any desire, perfecting her skills with no limitations.

Boys have never been so screwed.

Boys do not have the same freedoms for picking and choosing without a huge social stigmatization.

Old school Canadians still laugh at Boys who want to join Ballet or write Poetry or who show an interest in plain old reading books over sports.

Worse yet is the 3rd world countries treatment variance between Boys and Girls that gets migrated here.

Boys are treated as the “Golden Child” who could do no wrong. They get a pass on everything. In a lot of families they tell the Mom what to do at home.

Girls in the same home are 2nd class citizens. No freedoms. Their struggles at home serve them very well in public. No limit to their potential.

#196 down_boy on 12.07.17 at 4:13 pm

People who get emotional and say bitcoin is a bubble are only displaying their ignorance of what bitcoin is. It is not a product or a thing. It has no value on which to speculate because it isn’t an asset. What it is, is an arrangement. Compare bitcoin and other cryptos to a joint bank account. If you contribute to a bank account and then your spouse makes a deposit, would you say your bank account is in a bubble? No, you both have a stake in the market cap of the account. If your partner goes shopping, would you say your bank account is ‘crashing’? Funds go in and the value of the account goes up. Withdraw and the value goes down. Bitcoin is not a thing, it is a representation of your stake in the overall fund. Bitcoin will go up and down and up again based on its utility for storage, access, and transferrability, just as your joint chequing account. The more people who use it, the more foundation of stored value remains in the account. You can only withdraw a maximum of your stake, ie. bitcoins, from the account.

It is not a tulip, or a pet rock, or a penny stock. It is pooled wealth. If you want to start a futures market on bitcoin, you must include the entire crypto currency market, because transferrability is so easy between these tokens. I can’t believe the CME missed this crucial fact. Holding only one token is holding the horse’s tail. Instead, use the team of horses for their inherent utility. I do not care if bitcoin goes up or down because I make profit on swaps with other cryptos, increasing my stake with each swap. I can make money on bitcoin, potato chips, or toothpaste, because I know how to trade. I know when to go in, and when to get out. I’ve bought and sold and bought and sold bitcoin all the way up, amplifying my gains. If the value of my stake declines, oh well, my digibytes will go up.

Diversity is good, but balance is just another word for fear. ‘Exposure’ in multiple markets is a better phrase than ‘balance’. Exposure gives you first hand ticker awareness if your strategy is working. Learn how to trade in any market with confidence and caution, but practice first some exercises to overcome fear and greed.

Aside: Would I buy a house in today’s market? Who cares? If it works for you, then it’s your pretty little thing. Let the bank carry the debt for low interest or pay cash. Just don’t get all emotional about house prices, bitcoin, CAD, or things beyond your control. If CAD is low, make money. if CAD is high, make money. Likewise, interest rates.

Far more important: let me express reverence for the animals lost in LAs wildfires yesterday and the heros who saved so many.

#197 IHCTD9 on 12.07.17 at 4:14 pm

#188 Renter’s Revenge! on 12.07.17 at 2:57 pm
#161 IHCTD9 on 12.07.17 at 12:00 pm
So the 64 million dollar question now is:
“What do young Women want?”

=============================

I still remember from my second year cultural anthropology course in university, we were taught that in hunter-gatherer societies women brought 80% of the calories back to the village (mostly from gathering nuts, fruits, vegetables, etc.) while men brought back the other 20% (mostly from hunting). Women also formed the center of tribes, while men acted on the periphery…
___________________________

A most excellent post, and I can see we have been considering the situation along the same lines.

I’ll bet that Women’s natural skills of organization, management and administration may well make them better suited to a post industrial society than Men. It’s true that in centuries past, Women did most of the work, and it indeed looks like we may be coming around back to that again. Maybe current day Men are just (unwittingly) losing their battle against the natural order of things?

You can also see the burgeoning movements of Prepping, Homesteading, living off the land, Living in a cabin, moving to Alaska and trapping all attract a Male audience, and all these “lifestyles” are very risky.

I know I said “The rise of Women”, but it is actually looking more like an un-bridling of Men. Men are stepping out of boring work they never wanted to do, Women are stepping into the organizational positions they always wanted to fill. It’s like a natural reorganization into traditional roles that the sexes were predestined to carry out. Of course, we don’t know where the Men are headed just yet…

My own family is a perfect example. I strongly gravitate to the bull work where I can just turn my brain off. That kind of work is much preferable to me than say, – planning and organizing Christmas festivities – and less time consuming too.

I do have concerns that the priorities of the majority of (younger) Western Women may conflict greatly with a free market economy and Capitalism in general. I also consider Women to be less suited to making hard decisions that directly result in some folks getting hurt, so we’ll see what happens.

Right now my gut tells me the end result will be Federal insolvency, but I’m still working on the details.

#198 TnT on 12.07.17 at 4:16 pm

#163 Capt. Serious on 12.07.17 at 12:24 pm

IF Bitcoin does NOT crash

Imagine the complete and utter global financial calamity……

My guess is Bitcoin will be used as the default Crypto Currency for static storage (sort of like Gold) and this will be traded for the next technology Block-chain (or Tangle) that can actually be used at a Point of Sale terminal.

#199 maxx on 12.07.17 at 4:16 pm

#30 joblo on 12.06.17 at 6:43 pm

“Lieberals = LAME

Crying EU trade talks
FAIL T2 in China
Butt kicking in Nafta

Whatta buncha LOSERS!”

Ah, ah! Don’t forget the bitch-slap by Duterte. In any case, this list of epic fails is what we know about, with much more to come.

Increasing savings, eliminating any spending waste and battening down personal finance hatches toute suite in anticipation of the horrendous economic mess this party will leave Canada in, would be a good start to 2018.

What a lousy report card, crowned with titanic waste of our taxes.

Happy Canada 150th………………..

#200 IHCTD9 on 12.07.17 at 4:31 pm

#187 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.17 at 2:54 pm
@#161 IHCTD9
“At the same time, many Canadian Men seem to have utterly lost the ambition to lead – preferring a round or two of Mario Kart instead. I see this in Politics, Community Organizations, Churches, Charities, Fundraisers, Food Banks, Youth Groups, volunteering, raising kids, – just about anywhere outside private sector business ownership you will see a Woman making the decisions and doing all the work. ”
*****

Or Men have utterly given up on participating when they realized that to be a man in todays society you’re not allowed to have an opinion on anything without being labeled, sexist, racist, homophobic, stupid, misogynistic, and on and on and on.
Which is fine.
Just don’t bitch when a stupid man hands you a bill for $2000 to replace your toilet with a bidet….

Let the women become the next derided, mocked, hated gender.
Men have had enough
_________________________________________

I understand all this stuff is going on too, but the things I am starting to see underlies all of the bickering.

The only real reason I starting thinking more about the increasing presence of Women in all facets of society is because of my desire to have a decent opinion formed on the financial condition of Canada in the near future (ie probably broke).

I’m not sure what the Matriarchy would look like, but it sure will see Women doing a lot more work, while Men will do much less of it. It will also with near certainty bankrupt itself in very short order (IMHO).

FWIW, I personally benefit greatly from the “rise of women”. There is more money in my bank account, there is a nice pension I will benefit from, there is at least one job in our household that will always be around (her govy. job), I may get an early retirement out of the deal, I do way less work than any Man in history ever had to do for this kind of gravy (all I did was marry her).

IMHO, Marriage could be on the rocks in a Matriarchy, but Men may well be able to choose the kind of “lifestyle” that has not been an option to them for thousands of years.

It may not be so bad…

#201 Newcomer on 12.07.17 at 4:42 pm

#195 down_boy on 12.07.17 at 4:13 pm
….You can only withdraw a maximum of your stake, ie. bitcoins, from the account.
————-

So you opened a joint checking account with strangers who all have full signing privileges. That sounds prudent.

#202 Ubul on 12.07.17 at 4:47 pm

That is exactly why you should not go near this thing. Easy to buy. Almost impossible to sell. Totally unregulated market. Risk in extreme. — Garth

—-

How do you buy “easy” without someone “almost impossibly” selling it?

You must be confused how bitcoin is traded.

Go ahead. Try it. — Garth

#203 maxx on 12.07.17 at 5:02 pm

#133 Victor V on 12.07.17 at 7:54 am

“64% of Canadians say their holiday spending is ‘out of control’: Poll

https://www.bnn.ca/64-of-canadians-say-their-holiday-spending-is-out-of-control-poll-1.937134

Wherever we are on any given Jan 1st, we arrange for a slap-up meal and luxuriate in having zero debt entering a brand new year. Break out the champagne.

I can’t stomach the idea of the Holiday Hangover of retail overspend.

#204 SilverSon on 12.07.17 at 5:17 pm

#195 down_boy on 12.07.17 at 4:13 pm

Read what you wrote and understood every word. I see exactly what you’re saying and I know what a bitcoin is too. Calling people ignorant if they think bitcoin is a bubble as you did in your first sentence is out of place though. All your points have the same validity whether bitcoin is a bubble or not. But your last statement is great – well done.

#205 acdel on 12.07.17 at 5:50 pm

#161 IHCTD9

I understand where you are going. The odds are stocked against them and have been for some time; especially in the educational system where there are less and less male teachers that truly make that much of a difference in a young boys life. I had some excellent female and male teachers in my life but the ones that made the most difference in my life were the male teachers.

Hey, I love my mom, sisters, nieces, daughters, and treat them with the utmost respect and love being around them, but even they admit what is happening to men has gone too far. Just once I would/they would like to read, hear a story on all the positives men have done in society. It will never happen; so men, step back, enjoy, and see what happens!

#206 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.17 at 6:00 pm

@#199 IHCTD9
“but Men may well be able to choose the kind of “lifestyle” ….”
+++++

They have …… single.

I was merely responding to your previous comment as why men are not ‘participating” in politics, charities, etc.

Its pretty easy to understand when anything a man says can be miscontrued as, sexist, racist, biased, etc….

Nah, easier to sit it out, let the gender neutrals fight amounst themselves….. until ….eventually …..
China takes over…….

#207 down_boy on 12.07.17 at 6:01 pm

#203 SilverSon on 12.07.17 at 5:17 pm

I didn’t say they were ignorant, I said they were “displaying their ignorance of what bitcoin is”. I still love them, just not what they say. Thanks for acknowledging the comment.

And yes, breaks my heart when creatures of virtue succumb to tragedy.

#208 down_boy on 12.07.17 at 6:11 pm

#200 Newcomer on 12.07.17 at 4:42 pm
#195 down_boy on 12.07.17 at 4:13 pm
….You can only withdraw a maximum of your stake, ie. bitcoins, from the account.
————-

So you opened a joint checking account with strangers who all have full signing privileges. That sounds prudent.

…..

What’s the divorce rate in Canada? I didn’t put my savings in crypto. I put in some fun money for exposure. It grew 1000% and momentum is only increasing. This is a paradigm shift, like open source code. I think my actions were very prudent, both confident and cautious.

#209 Newcomer on 12.07.17 at 6:33 pm

#207 down_boy on 12.07.17 at 6:11 pm

I put in some fun money for exposure.
—————

And you are having fun. So it’s all good. Your odds of coming out ahead are probably no worse than with a lottery ticket.

#210 Ace Goodheart on 12.07.17 at 7:09 pm

RE: #201 Ubul on 12.07.17 at 4:47 pm

That is exactly why you should not go near this thing. Easy to buy. Almost impossible to sell. Totally unregulated market. Risk in extreme. — Garth

—-

How do you buy “easy” without someone “almost impossibly” selling it?

You must be confused how bitcoin is traded.

Go ahead. Try it. — Garth”

It is pretty difficult to sell your $21,400.00 CDN bitcoin.

It is really easy to buy one. You can do it with a credit card. And it will say on your account, that you own a $21,400 CDN bitcoin. Sort of like owning a million dollar semi. It feels good, until you try to sell it.

I think people should actually do that. Try to sell your bitcoins, right now. All of you that have them. Just so you can see what I mean. Try to get your $21,400 CDN out of the bitcoin, and into your bank account.

Let us all know how it goes for you.

Exactly my point. – Garth

#211 Ace Goodheart on 12.07.17 at 7:15 pm

Here’s the situation with coinbase (if you want to try to sell the $22,000 bitcoin you just bought with your credit card):

“Sells Not Supported
Coinbase does not currently support sells in your country. Subscribe to our blog to be notified when we add support for your country!”

No one sees this because no one is trying to sell. It is ridiculously hard to sell a bitcoin. Kinda makes you feel a bit weird in the stomach about that big credit card bill, doesn’t it? How in the world are you going to pay that? Not with bitcoin…..

#212 Doug in London on 12.07.17 at 9:48 pm

@Trader Vic, post #189:
It still beats the hell out of Bitcoin.

#213 down_boy on 12.08.17 at 2:47 am

#210 Ace Goodheart on 12.07.17 at 7:09 pm
RE: #201 Ubul on 12.07.17 at 4:47 pm

That is exactly why you should not go near this thing. Easy to buy. Almost impossible to sell. Totally unregulated market. Risk in extreme. — Garth

—-

How do you buy “easy” without someone “almost impossibly” selling it?

You must be confused how bitcoin is traded.

Go ahead. Try it. — Garth”

It is pretty difficult to sell your $21,400.00 CDN bitcoin.

It is really easy to buy one. You can do it with a credit card. And it will say on your account, that you own a $21,400 CDN bitcoin. Sort of like owning a million dollar semi. It feels good, until you try to sell it.

I think people should actually do that. Try to sell your bitcoins, right now. All of you that have them. Just so you can see what I mean. Try to get your $21,400 CDN out of the bitcoin, and into your bank account.

Let us all know how it goes for you.

Exactly my point. – Garth

You can sell them at an atm, coinsquare, gold dude, places are popping up. Paypal via localbitcoins, exchange for dash and sell, exchange for ripple and sell. This is like when the railroad started. Rumors are spreading. Some towns will win. Some will become ghost towns (ie retailers) Bitcoin is too volatile as a currency. But it is desirable to an increasing number of people, worldwide. I own very little btc, buy a few dips, peeling off profit into other altcoins to increase my holdings, like a game. This is very early, but the railroad will come. Eventually I will be able to buy an icecream with conecoin, shoes with shopcoin, register airtravel with flycoin, or pay using a more universal digital currency which has a modest appreciation with gradual adoption and lightning network speed. The dollar is tied to debt and calibrated to lower wages invisibly, while our resources are sold at a discount. I say adios.
When you pay with cash, the product is shrinking. When you pay with credit, everybody takes a scratch. Evolving stable altcoins will cost millicents to use and make inflation obsolete. But like the railroad, or air travel, or indoor plumbing, there will be bluster and fuss, and steam, and old men shaking their fists.

#214 down_boy on 12.08.17 at 3:03 am

#209 Newcomer on 12.07.17 at 6:33 pm
#207 down_boy on 12.07.17 at 6:11 pm

I put in some fun money for exposure.
—————

And you are having fun. So it’s all good. Your odds of coming out ahead are probably no worse than with a lottery ticket.

…..

Yes, and I am learning how to trade and transact in this medium. I am studying the performance of various wallets and exchanges. I am refining my crypto strategies and isolating trading pairs with practical applications. Eventually, I will probably spend mine at online retailers, or local adopters, or pay the hotel bill… It’s all coming. The momentum is too great. There are so many really cool minds concentrating on digital currencies. Personally, I don’t have a lot of faith in bitcoin any more than a legacy coin, but I’m willing to see how high it goes, dips and all.

#215 Steven Rowlandson on 12.08.17 at 2:49 pm

“#160 Fiat is dead
The fed and the banksters have been slayed. Bitcoin forever.”

Not slain but probably stunned or distracted and most certainly bitch slapped. Expect a counter attack with full government support in the not too distant future.