There won’t be blood

DOUG By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

Decades ago, when I had a few less grey hairs and counted as a good day any day that I didn’t get yelled at by an institutional trader or have to pick up his or her dry cleaning, I did some research work with my old firm’s oil & gas analysts. I remember being amazed at the time that the world actually consumed 75 million barrels of oil per day.

Today that figure seems small as global demand now flirts with the 100-million-barrel-a-day level and has continued to rise virtually uninterrupted over the past 20 years. Long-term global oil demand-growth is, of course, not spectacular averaging only about 1.5% per year, but the growth rate has been incredibly consistent regardless of the time period (1.3% and 1.7% annually over the past 10 years and five years, respectively, for example).

While the corresponding WTI oil price has been wildly volatile over the past 20 years, suggesting the need for active management in the energy space, the good years for oil can be extraordinarily profitable and the price has still averaged a reasonable 5% annual growth rate over the past two decades. Therefore it makes sense to build a long-term portfolio with at least some oil & gas exposure and we should, from an investment perspective, rid ourselves of the notion that renewable energy and electric cars will somehow loosen our grip on fossil fuel consumption any time soon.

Global Oil Consumption: An Uninterrupted Rise

Source: International Energy Agency; Bloomberg. 20-year quarterly chart

Shorter term, there are a number of positives for the oil & gas sector: a generally strong global economy, declining US inventory levels (down 14% since March), global supply and demand finally being in balance and a significant technical breakout for the WTI oil price (see chart below).

After Consolidating for 18 months, WTI Oil has made a Major Technical Breakout above Resistance

Source: StockCharts.com

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo also recently stated that production cuts were the “only viable option” to restore stability to the oil market—another positive development. It’s hackneyed oil-industry wisdom, but the only cure for low oil prices is, of course, low oil prices. Typically, when oil prices are subdued there are three outcomes: 1) a reduction in spending on new projects, 2) an outright postponement of new projects or 3) production cuts—all of which lead to lower supply growth. New extraction techniques developed in the past decade, such as fracking, which led to the explosive growth in US production, signaled a major change for the oil industry and speculation became rampant that the oversupply would never work its way out of the market.

But it did (see chart below). The oil market has historically been pragmatic—albeit not always immediately so—and supply-demand has once again moved into balance. In fact, the correlation between global supply and global demand has been 97% over the past 10 years. That’s an efficient market.

Global Oil Supply & Demand: Once Again in Balance

Source: Bloomberg. While line = supply, orange line = demand. Shaded green = oversupply.

So the shorter-term fundamentals for oil remain, in our view, positive, which is one reason why we increased our clients’ exposure to Canadian equities earlier this year. But regardless of how near-term fundamentals develop, the longer-term pattern is clear: global oil consumption will rise and, despite its shorter-term inefficiencies, the oil industry eventually finds a way to create balance between supply and demand. And while it’s an industry that’s no friend to the environment, your portfolio should have oil & gas exposure. My car? Still takes gas. My house? No solar panels yet. My possessions? All made directly or indirectly with fossil fuels.

Invest in oil & gas. And if you feel guilty, buy a Prius plug-in.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

150 comments ↓

#1 slick on 11.18.17 at 4:00 pm

first;
I am a proud climate change denier.
But cannot even get my 20 year old son to entertain the concept.
just more lies. I don’t believe a word elon musk spews.
500 mile range on a loaded transport truck?
It’ll take 20 years for that technology.

#2 Sir James on 11.18.17 at 4:08 pm

Electric cars run on coal!
MAGA.

#3 D.D. Corkum on 11.18.17 at 4:08 pm

I think oil demand and per-barrel prices will have another 10-15 years of global growth; but share prices for oil companies will be impacted in 5-10 years as investors begin pricing in the subsequent declines that are almost certain to occur on the 15-30 year horizon.

Its fair to guess that some gas guzzlers will be on the road for the next thirty years… but you don’t have to change the entire vehicle fleet for it to start impacting demand. If market share for new electric cars keeps growing, then sooner or later it will be felt. Negligible impact at first, but huge impacts in 15-30 years.

#4 Perfectly Corrolated on 11.18.17 at 4:10 pm

One for the Teranet doubters…

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DO4nEJZV4AA8XhG.jpg

Look at that! HPI is perfectly (inversely) correlated with market supply, once you shift the HPI graph 3 months forward.

This immediately answers the question on how much Teranet HPI lags: 3 months.

You can call it useless, but I call it the only accurate number available.
If you want to know in December what the prices in September were, then you will get a very accurate number, judging from that graph.

If Teranet is a fake, manufactured number, then the inventory numbers are too.
You can’t have two fake signals correlate so nicely.
Meaning, both are actual reliable signals.

#5 Flatlander on 11.18.17 at 4:11 pm

Too bad that Prius plug-in burns natural gas and coal if you’re a resident of the flatlands…but it’s the thought that counts right?

It’s unfortunate our rich supply of uranium isn’t given a better chance in the hydro deficient areas of SK and AB.

#6 nah on 11.18.17 at 4:13 pm

weed…………. all the way

Canada to become a global leader.

#7 westcdn on 11.18.17 at 4:18 pm

The house similar to mine just sold after listing at my 2017 assessed value. Based on relative 2017 property tax assessed values, I would guess about a 10% decrease in RE prices on my neighbourhood since July 2015. That is not horrific but the math currently says RE is not a retirement plan for me.

I use Ebay to buy things. Chinese companies offer me the best prices on mundane items. I had a solar panel charge controller from a Chinese supplier disappear. Usually I get my order in 4 weeks. This sucker wasn’t delivered after 12 weeks so I complained to Ebay and got a refund. 2 weeks later the item shows up in my mailbox. I don’t know what Canada Customs was up to but judging from the attached stickers, this $10 item travelled across the country in 14 weeks more than I have in my entire life.

I tried to contact the vendor to make restitution but his website said he wouldn’t deal with Canadians anymore – crap. Ebay must have worked him over. The lesson learned – don’t let a machine get first between problems with person to person. I recently purchased some Ebay Cdn Mint silver coins at a very good price while scouting for Xmas gifts. My guess is that they were put up for sale to buy Bitcoins.

After sitting on a projection of WTI oil price of $50us +/- us$10 for a couple of years, I am going to $55us +/- us$8. Why? The lower or higher price band determines whether I will consider buying or selling energy. I have tightened the plus/minus because I see more oil price stability. It is still a problem of demand rather than supply. If I am right, my stability projection is a good thing. It is hard to guess the future and plan when the present is inconsistent.

I wrote this before I saw Doug’s post and it is a good one. If we should meet, I will pay the freight – cash of course.

#8 Hana on 11.18.17 at 4:20 pm

Why would the biggest sovereign fund consider divesting its oil fund portfolio?

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/16/business/energy-environment/norway-fund-oil.html

#9 HHCE on 11.18.17 at 4:21 pm

Did “Happy Housing Crash Everyone!” move his operations to the Twitterverse?

https://twitter.com/Heems604/status/931946815179522048

#10 Lisa on 11.18.17 at 4:26 pm

Thank you! Very informative!
Bravo for switching up the topics on the weekends. You guys really look at a lot of variables when deciding on investment opportunities. I had no idea.

#11 Fake News Again on 11.18.17 at 4:40 pm

Is there nothing that is not FAKE NEWS today? There is so much oil floating around the ocean in tankers they have no where to park. The USA is now exporting oil.

And to the guy that does not believe Tesla Trucks will be 500 miles within 10 years. I will quote Trump – WRONG

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.17 at 4:42 pm

I dont feel so guilty filling up my truck with gas after reading this blog….

Thanks Doug.

#13 Dattaman on 11.18.17 at 4:43 pm

Doug,

What are your thoughts on the impact of the Norges Bank divesting its $28B position in oil and gas stocks from the $1 trillion Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global to make it “less vulnerable to a permanent drop in oil and gas prices”?

They state it’s no reflection on where they think oil and gas prices are headed, nor on the profitability or sustainability of the industry, but does the divestiture in and of itself give you pause? It’s interesting timing certainly that you write an article to invest in oil and gas two days after the largest sovereign fund in the world declares they wish to divest of all their oil and gas holdings.

This is not meant as criticism just curious to know your thoughts on this and the potential impact. Cheers.

https://www.nbim.no/en/transparency/news-list/2017/norges-bank-recommends-the-removal-of-oil-stocks-from-the-benchmark-index-of-the-government-pension-fund-global-gpfg/

#14 Stan Brooks on 11.18.17 at 4:44 pm

My humble opinion and the reasons why I stay out of (at least Canadian) broad oil and gas investments.

1. Short term fundamentals are good for CHEAP oil.
like the one produced by Saudis, Russia, Venezuela, Iran, even shale in US.
Canadian oil/tar sands is the most expensive on the world market. It will not be viable economically in the next decade. It/the sector will muddle through somehow.

2. Within one decade we will witness explosion of electric and self driving cars which will reduce dramatically the need for oil. Like 10 fold.
Not believable? Watch it unraveling live in the next decade. Watch Tesla stock price, the company becoming potentially the next Amazon.

3. There is sufficient CHEAP oil for the next 2-3 decades

4. There is massive move toward prohibition of gas and diesel cars in Europe, transport going electric. Germany is the lead example, many follow.

We are the last one to jump on that train but our market is insignificant precisely because of that. Lack of vision.
Old retarded policies of extract, consume, produce (crappy) output but not to innovate. Except in the mortgages and loans Business. look where we are because of that.

5. Saudi Arabia, Russia are diversifying out of oil.
Why? Because it is crystal clear that it has no future mid to long term.

6. All majors are pulling out of the Canadian tar sands.
Why? Because it is crystal clear that it has no future mid to long term. Sold assets are bought by Canadian companies in a hope for future gain with probability to materialize such being very, very slim.

7. The plans to build natural gas liquefaction facilities by Shell in BC was placed on hold and potentially cancelled? Why?
Because it is not economically viable and there is no overseas market for it that can not be supplied by much cheaper pipelines.

8. All gas producers in Canada will have local impact/Kanukistan has to be heated, Enbridge, Encana is probably a good LOCAL play here.

9. The relation between CAD dollar and oil prices will weaken going forward.

10. Canadian oil sands could be strategic play 50-100 years from now, potentially for use in the chemical industry. My expectation is that with explosion of AI and development of new materials that necessity will go away.
Tar sands might never be ever developed.

Canadian oil and gas sector is in my mind a sucker’s play short term due to shale potentials in US, self driving cars.

We will produce dirt expensive oil but will sell it at loss to US only. No international markets due to quality/price/much cheaper alternatives.

So broad Canadian oil and gas sector play is in my mind stupid play short to mid term. Some attractive companies as I mentioned – Enbridge, Encana exists but rather as exception to the general rule.

So Doug, your car might keep running on gas but you will soon find out that economically you are just insignificant small sand grain on an insignificant 3rd grade beach that can’t compete with the Copacabana of the world innovative economy.

So your car will not matter.
It is a matter of time for the big players to introduce self driving cars as a service on the Canadian market and there is nothing anyone can do about this, just look at Uber in N.Y. and the fate of the taxi drivers there.

We can pretend, as we do in the housing market, but reality will hit us hard. It is inevitable.

My 2 cents.

#15 Ronaldo on 11.18.17 at 4:54 pm

#9 HHCE on 11.18.17 at 4:21 pm

Did “Happy Housing Crash Everyone!” move his operations to the Twitterverse?

https://twitter.com/Heems604/status/931946815179522048
—————————————————————
He’s still here among us. Just under a different name. Surprised that nobody else has discovered him.

#16 Cherry Picker on 11.18.17 at 5:00 pm

Thought this was a Canadian’s blog. Only in America is there a move to have electricity produced from coal. Make America grate again
That will only last until the next presidential election.

In BC electric cars will run on hydroelectricity, dam it!
It will be a Site to C.

You gas-loving, carbon-based paleos are in for a shock over the next decade.

#17 Stan Brooks on 11.18.17 at 5:02 pm

#8 Hana on 11.18.17 at 4:20 pm
Why would the biggest sovereign fund consider divesting its oil fund portfolio?

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/16/business/energy-environment/norway-fund-oil.html

—————————-

Precisely because of any lack of confidence in that sector in mid to long term.

Norway is a country of 5 millions with over 1 trillion USD in a sovereign STATE fund, apart from any other pension and saving funds. So this is not the equivalent of our CPP fund which while formidable is peanuts compared to number of participants and will pay little to nothing in real benefits down the road/if not stolen by politicians.

When Norway diversifies out of oil and gas, I will follow them.

They were smart to build a fund of over 1 trillion while we where stupid to borrow insane amounts to subsidize a housing bubble, so I tent to trust them, not the Canadian advisers.

Sorry.

When I see Norwegians and even Saudis, even a single oil and gas major investing in our oil and gas sector, I will rethink my view.

Europe is aggressively moving toward non oil and gas cars. Cities are coming up with plans to prohibit use of such in 10 years time frame.

It is sad to see other countries being visionaries and us keep being the retarded suckers who follow the guy with the fancy socks and the french villa minister.

Can we see some gains in our oil and gas sector short term? Sure, a sucker is born every minute, just look at our housing market.

#18 mike from mtl on 11.18.17 at 5:05 pm

For Oil investments I’m comfortable with the FTSE exposure. Plus that works well as a hedge against the poloz peso.

Not at all confident with maple, the ‘market’ too thinks so.

#19 OttawaMike on 11.18.17 at 5:10 pm

Hana on 11.18.17 at 4:20 pm

Norway’s motivation to divest is political not economics driven.
The fund must invest in socially conscious initiatives and oil is bad due to climate change.

Irony alert: All the money in the fund came from oil revenues.

#20 Smudgekin on 11.18.17 at 5:19 pm

Dear Doug you risk being hanged by the goolies for this.. Long term gas & oil investment? After the likes of China and VW have pledged billions in EV production. You might be Garth’s dry cleaning boy again. Things can change very quickly. Look at the smartphone market.

#21 Stan Brooks on 11.18.17 at 5:22 pm

So in essence our oil and gas is the same as our housing – glass condos, cardboard houses – expensive and crappy.

#22 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.18.17 at 5:28 pm

I like the idea of electric cars but electricity doesn’t just happen. Where is all the electricity going to come from? Can you say brown outs ? Who is building new hydro electric dams ? Hey Ontario, if you think electricity is expensive now just wait until all the electric cars show up.

#23 For those about to flop... on 11.18.17 at 5:36 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Coquitlam.

This newer house was picked up for 2.31 in April 2016.

They paid that number even though the assessment is still lagging behind and still shows it as a vacant block of land assessed at 800k and the year before for only 350k.

So they have a new product in their favour but after 4 months on the market it appears they are in tough to get their money back.

As the late,great ,Fats Domino once sang about these guys…

I found my thrill on Strawline Hill…

M43BC

1439 Strawline Hill Street, Coquitlam

Jul 31:$2,980,000
Nov 17: $2,388,000
Change: – 592000.00 -20%

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/1439-strawline-hill-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDBXNldKTA==

#24 TurnerNation on 11.18.17 at 5:41 pm

Don’t believe all this NAFTA theatre in the news. Starring T2 and T-rump (TV star).

Our elite rulers had NO trouble ramming though that Trans Pacific Trade agreement in secret without debate didn’t they.
So why are they dragging out this charade.

Answer: the whole world’s a stage.

#25 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 11.18.17 at 5:43 pm

“..all made directly or indirectly with fossil fuels. Invest in oil & gas.”

Well said for a person who lives in Ontario but “gets it”. I live in Ontario and was born and raised in Ontario, but Alberta proud. (I lived there too)

Lucky, 1/3 of Canada’s stock market is natural resource related so if you have any exposure to the TSX, your good on O&G.

#26 The other Doug, in London on 11.18.17 at 5:45 pm

I’ve travelled many places since oil prices dropped 3 years ago and have made some observations. I’ve driven my GASOLINE fueled car many places this year, including to Kentucky in August to be in the path of the total solar eclipse. On these road trips I saw many other GASOLINE fueled cars and trucks with DIESEL engines. I’ve also taken trips to and from Toronto on Via trains and Greyhound buses, both of which have DIESEL engines. In Toronto at Pearson International Airport I have boarded planes, which burn JET FUEL, to many far away places. I could go on and on and on, but by now you get the picture. As Doug Rowat said, we should rid ourselves of the notion that renewable energy and electric cars will somehow loosen our grip on fossil fuel consumption any time soon.

I think I’ll hold on to those XEG shares which I’ve scooped up during this 3 year Boxing Week sale of energy stocks and ETFs.

#27 Stan Brooks on 11.18.17 at 5:47 pm

#19 OttawaMike on 11.18.17 at 5:10 pm
Hana on 11.18.17 at 4:20 pm

Norway’s motivation to divest is political not economics driven.
The fund must invest in socially conscious initiatives and oil is bad due to climate change.

Irony alert: All the money in the fund came from oil revenues.

——————————

What you are saying is NOT aligning with the fund arguments. It is strictly financially/volatility driven.

https://www.nbim.no/en/transparency/news-list/2017/norges-bank-recommends-the-removal-of-oil-stocks-from-the-benchmark-index-of-the-government-pension-fund-global-gpfg/

They made their money from oil but were smart enough to diversify. Same as Bill Gates.

We were the stupid one who did not build any investment funds from oil revenue and now are told to invest in a sucker’s play.

#28 espressobob on 11.18.17 at 5:55 pm

Global index investors already own a healthy position in the energy sector.

Commodity and sector plays usually disappoint over the long haul compared to the major indices.

#29 6% goal on 11.18.17 at 5:57 pm

Garth mentions often ; if you have $ 1 million invested in a balanced portfolio then that averages 6 % a year .. which equals $ 5 k a month

fine i get that .. but how does one get that regular cash each month to pay rent instead of owning a house ??

yes the dividends can pay out average of up to 3 % but the other 3 % ??

does one only sell a bunch of high flying ETF’s in a good market and bank the cash to spend .?
what happens in a bear market ??
not a good time to sell

and if one sells regularly one gets hammered with capital gains in a non reg account ..

please help someone

#30 For those about to flop... on 11.18.17 at 6:00 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Surrey.

These guys thought that it was a good idea to pay 2.72 for this ten y.o. house back in March 2016.

Just took the axe to the beanstalk for a 900k reduction

We will see what happens, but it could amount to roughly a 400k loss after expenses.

Ain’t no magic beans in this one…

M43BC

14069 28 Avenue, Surrey

Jun 6:$3,388,000
Nov 17: $2,499,000
Change: – 889000.00 -26%

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/14069-28-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDAxN1A5Qw==

#31 Loonie Doctor on 11.18.17 at 6:06 pm

Agree that we won’t change our petroleum sucking ways quickly. Fuel is only part of the equation. That said, I would think that everyone in Canada is already invested in oil and gas, both by virtue of the close relationship with our dollar and also that if we buy TSX related ETFs, there would be a decent exposure to the oil and gas sector I would think. Most Canadians are probably overweight, given the home country bias of most investors. I am reluctant to make a special effort to target the oil and gas sector specifically. Thoughts?

#32 Doug Rowat on 11.18.17 at 6:07 pm

#14 Stan Brooks on 11.18.17 at 4:44 pm

So Doug, your car might keep running on gas but you will soon find out that economically you are just insignificant small sand grain on an insignificant 3rd grade beach…

Are you referencing Sideways, you sly devil? Great movie.

–Doug

#33 TAX AND SPEND AGAIN on 11.18.17 at 6:08 pm

If politicians like McKenna and the rest of the liberals were to quit talking there would be a lot less CO2 pollution. We would all be better off for it.

#34 akashic record on 11.18.17 at 6:09 pm

Electric cars seem to have the technology breakthrough already: solid state battery was developed by the same guy who’s invention, the Lithium batteries are powering your electronics today. Professor Goodenough (yes, really..) is 94.

The commercial application is expected to show up in about 2020. The prediction is 1000 km range per charge, that can be super fast, basically the bottleneck is not the battery but how fast the charging station can provide the power.

Toyota plans to come out with solid state battery EVs, covering long distance per charge in 2022.

When this happens the switch over will be fast.

LED lights were expensive exotic a short while ago, now replaced traditional bulbs virtually everywhere worldwide, the same is underway in computer, tv, etc displays.

Cheap controlling electronics make even parts like pool pumps, heating boilers much more energy efficient.

The consumption decline on my hydro and gas bill in the past 2-3 years is steady and substantial.

Oil was great, but has the “huge weight single asset” problem, what is a big no-no principle in the balanced investment portfolio.

Canadian mindset needs to re-balance.

#35 Suppliers on 11.18.17 at 6:15 pm

HAD to decrease supply . The Saudis learned the hard way.

Other sources of energy will continue to take market share. Nearly
All of Europe will in time run cars electrically – Germany and France leading the peloton . China and India recently stated they will embrace change as well

Can’t stop it …:)

#36 Tbone on 11.18.17 at 6:17 pm

Prius or mustang gt with the 5.0 coyote engine .
Let me see… how does that song go… mustang Sally guess you better slow that mustang down.
Mustang all day long , sorry .
Technology will save us all. Have faith.

#37 Mike on 11.18.17 at 6:25 pm

I would not bet against the renewable energy trend.
Like all disruptive technologies it takes some time, it comes slowly first but we are at the point where it’s becoming actually more economical, and that’s when the adoption curve starts shooting up.
Anything is possible in the short term for oil, but the long term in my view is much much lower oil prices!

#38 For those about to flop... on 11.18.17 at 6:29 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

This house was sold for the exact same number as it was purchased for.

The details…

Paid 1.69 January 2016

Sold 1.69 June 2017

And so after expenses and a couple of percent for opportunity costs we will guesstimate a 120k loss from the outside looking in.

Perhaps most surprising for me and maybe a few people that follow me is that this one was in my Possible Pinkies Folder, meaning that original ask was more than 10% than the property was purchased for ,but with my research I believed they were a candidate to take a loss in a mild correction and have been proven correct in this case.

There have previously been losses in this folder and there will be in the future as the melt continues at this slow pace…

M43BC

6875 AUBREY ST BURNABY paid 1.69 asking 1.89

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/6875-aubrey-street

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=6875%20Aubrey%20Street,%20Burnaby&ptype_house=1&max_price=1300000&min_price=800000&filter=1

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzVlNMNg==

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzVlNMNg==

#39 How does Vancity do it? on 11.18.17 at 6:33 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-17/in-toronto-world-s-hottest-housing-market-starting-to-boil-over

#40 Bob on 11.18.17 at 6:38 pm

In the long run we’re all dead….

…..use oil and gas until then.

#41 It's a matter of time on 11.18.17 at 6:40 pm

Chinese property buyers forced to sell (Austrailia)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x40lS8802lA

#42 genbizx on 11.18.17 at 6:53 pm

self driving cars?? tech types are so excited about this but:

in a world where:
high level gov. websites are constantly hacked, viruses are everywhere, personal info is lost by firms with no offers of compensation, software glitches abound (despite the happy commercials where devices, apps, new tech solutions are the answer to all life’s probs – in my experience they consistently under deliver and exist mostly to enrich yet another so-called genius)…

you want me to climb in a car controlled by this stuff? 120km down the 401…oops…sorry bout that but our stats show these things happen only x % of the time..and think about all the annoying glitches, servicing, upgrades, network issues….and just like other tech, big claims about helping you in times of trouble. riiiighht. has that been your experience?

if we were thinking practically we’d push mega money toward developing a more efficient combustion engine…imagine engines 50% more efficient…less pollution than mining battery materials, building turbines, solar panels, or shutting coal plants that could be equipped with scrubbers…

great to envision new ways of approaching probs but we need tough scrutiny to temper this prevailing idea that every new/techy idea is better than past ideas

#43 Ronaldo on 11.18.17 at 7:04 pm

Speaking of energy usage. Here is a chart on world coal consumption. China of course being way ahead of everyone else at 3.546 billion tonnes per year (2016). A reduction of 3.2% from peak in 2013. Still it represents a train stretching a distance of 350,000 miles. (100 cars x 100 tonnes = 10,000 tonnes). Still, that is 423 million tonnes less coal burned over the past 3 years or the equivalent of a train 42,300 miles long. Canada on the other hand produces about 70 million tonnes and exports around half of that or a train stretching 3500 miles. We have a ways to go to catch up to China.

https://yearbook.enerdata.net/coal-lignite/coal-world-consumption-data.html

#44 Ace Goodheart on 11.18.17 at 7:20 pm

RE: Oii: everything is made of oil. Including quite a bit of your electric car:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/partial-list-over-6000-products-made-from-one-barrel-oil-steve-pryor

RE: Electric cars: I totally gave up on ever seeing a model 3 Tesla (or any other Tesla for that matter) in my driveway in my lifetime. Even if Elon eventually figures out how to weld, he still apparently cannot mass produce the batteries.

But there must be other electric cars, right? So we had a look at the VW E-Golf. What an amazing little runabout that is. After rebates all in, we can get a “comfortline” which is the mid model with more options than the “trendline” base model, for around 24K CDN including all taxes. We were ecstatic. I booked a test drive.

Email from the dealer. Unfortunately they have a very limited supply, they are all gone already, and they expect to sell all the 2018’s before they actually show up on the lot (pre-sales). We could get in line to purchase one, but we could never test drive one (they can’t actually get any demos) and it would be a while before we saw our car.

So……while electric cars might be a good idea, probably about 1/4 to 1/3 of their parts are actually made of byproducts of petroleum and you can’t actually buy one (though they look really pretty in pictures and the small handful of auto journalists who have managed to get their hands on one for a test drive seem to really like them).

Seems that the new Tesla semis are back to the old Tesla way of doing things, ie pre fab and using other people’s parts rather than building your own car from scratch (the problem seems to be they don’t know how to weld and cannot properly program and maintain a welding robot).

Their new 1.9 second car looks interesting. I actually have $200,000 US dollars, however I don’t think I’d be able to spend it on such a thing (unless I wanted to get divorced).

#45 Smoking Man on 11.18.17 at 7:26 pm

Gas is 1/2 across the border even when you factor in USD conversation.

Filled up from 1/4 tank in Burlington last week 62 bucks today in NF 27 from a 1/4 tank.

Now you see how brutal the carbon tax is

#46 acdel on 11.18.17 at 7:28 pm

Excellent post!

What is never reported (although I am not against cleaner burning products) in which we have made a great stride towards it and never reported, but the hypocrisy of these greens gurus.

Electric vehicles take enormous amount of energy to create; batteries are going to be our future environmental disaster due to disposal; nasty ingredients in those things. Yep, those ingredients are mined. Infrastructure will cost trillions to convert, think electricity rates are high now?? Hydrogen is probably the better way to go until a new technology comes along.

Think gas prices are high now, just wait until that war starts in the middle east with the Saudi’s, Iran and the Israelis eyeing each other right now. Too bad all those that apposed the safest way to transport oil and create jobs “IN CANADA” through pipelines opposed it; yes, it was for exports, yes we have refineries in Alberta and elsewhere (Google it); you reap what you sow!

Doug, best picture ever!

#47 Nonplused on 11.18.17 at 7:37 pm

Doug, strange of you to write anything controversial, but hey I like it.

So, a few things I’ve covered before.

First, nobody really knows how much oil is out there, but it has to be finite. We know that the current amount of oil was produced over hundreds of millions of years. That process is still ongoing no doubt, the oceans are still alive and the sediments are still going in, but the rate is woefully inadequate to meet demand. The earth is producing new oil at about 1/350,000,000 of current consumption. (All I did there folks is divide 1 year by the 350,000,000 years it took to make the oil so it’s not scientific and don’t crank off it’s only meant to give an idea of scale.)

Even if you believe the “abiotic oil” nonsense, the earth is only making it so fast and it’s a lot less fast than we are using it. Otherwise the fish would be swimming in oil not water.

I estimate that peak “cheap oil”, the easy stuff we need to power modern economies, happened around 2006. Sure, that wasn’t “peak energy”, we still have the remaining cheap oil (about 50% or what we started with), natural gas, coal, shale oil and gas and tar sands, so there is lots of energy left. Sure, there is lots of shale oil out there, but there is no evidence it can be produced for less than $80 a barrel on mass.

So the start of the oil age looked like this: Pound a hole in the ground with a post and oil would gush up and you had to find someone to buy it. The end of the oil age (which we are now in) looks like this: You need a 1500 hp rig, unimaginable amounts of steel and cement and sand, and 40,000 hp worth of fracking equipment you used to be able to get out with a steam powered pole driver. It’s not economic because the energy return on energy invested is to high.

The only reason the oil industry isn’t suffering a faster collapse is because we already have the infrastructure built to burn it. I have a diesel truck that is reasonably new and in very good shape. therefore I will pay $130 to fill it up and drive it 800 km (it can pull trailers to) rather than buy a new Prius before the truck dies. Therefore, what I am getting at, is that the only reason shale oil drilling makes sense is because I already have the truck and it doesn’t make sense financial for me to go out and buy a Prius just yet.

But eventually that truck will die, and I won’t be buying another like that one. I’ll be buying something a lot more efficient. By that time the trailer will probably also be unsalvageable, and I probably won’t buy another one of those either.

So here is where it is at. At some point in the future, nobody can know exactly when because the data isn’t clear, but regardless at some point in the future the total amount of energy available from fossil fuels will hit an economic peak and begin to decline. At that point we better have a plan B or we are going back to the stone age.

Will plan B be renewables like wind, solar and hydro? Will it be nuclear? There are many ideas on the drawing board and I imagine it will be a combination of all of them.

So, I imagine the oil industry will never be a high profit industry again. In order to make a profit you have to produce a product for less than you sell it for. The oil industry will always struggle with this in the future even as they did when oil was $100 a barrel. Maybe a few bubbles here and there but no routine profits. All you have to do is look at what the majors were making when oil was $38 a barrel years ago as compared to what they make now that it is $50. The profits have gone away. They couldn’t really make money at $100. It was all debt.

Lots of people think “well if oil is in short supply the price will just keep going up”. No, society will change its consumption habits. When was the last time you bought whale meat or oil? You probably never have, I know I haven’t.

Yes, solar might take 20 years to gain traction and solar powered electric vehicles just as long. But the only reason you still drive a gas car is because you’ve already paid handsomely for it, and it still works. Your next one will be electric and you’ll get those panels on the roof eventually.

Oh and one more spoiler: Don’t worry about global warming. It’s real I suppose to a degree but the alarmists way over estimate the amount of carbon there is left to burn. We can only maybe cause about twice the warming we already have and then it’s done. We’ll be running on solar or nuclear because it makes more sense economically to do so.

These changes are already happening in so many ways. I can’t remember the last time my wife commuted to work, she and her employer actually have the “work from home” thing figured out. That’s 3000 lbs of steel that isn’t moving around much anymore. We still drive it to soccer, but we put a lot less gas in it in total. And at the current rate of mileage we might not have to replace even the tires for ten years. Savings in energy all up and down the line. Reduced oil demand. When prices go up, demand goes down, just not always right away.

#48 Loonie Doctor on 11.18.17 at 7:38 pm

I forgot to mention. I do actually have solar panels on my barn. Thanks MicroFIT and I drive an e-assist bike to work. Just about counteracts the 41 foot diesel pusher motorhome I use for vacationing with the family. I am all about averaging.

#49 Gravy Train on 11.18.17 at 7:53 pm

#22 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.18.17 at 5:28 pm
“I like the idea of electric cars but electricity doesn’t just happen. Where is all the electricity going to come from?”

Two words: solar panels!

“The average electric cost per kWh in the US is 12 cents (first tier) and if you go by an estimated average of 15,000 miles driven per year, that’ll bring you to $540 additional electric costs annually.

“The average cost of a gallon of gas in the US is $2.35 and if you again go with an average of 15,000 miles driven per year, your total annual gas costs would be $1,400.”
https://www.thesolarco.com/charge-your-electric-car-with-solar-panels/

#50 For those about to flop... on 11.18.17 at 7:54 pm

Robax,you know I am not good for much besides my reports on Vancouver real estate, but in support of your post i will resubmit this article about oil that I posted a short while back…

M43BC

“One Map Shows the Worlds Biggest Oil Exporters
Despite investment into alternative energies, oil is still the world’s most traded commodity. Want to know where it comes from? Here are the world’s oil exporters, ranked by revenue and global market share.

Top heavy
Over 100 countries export crude oil, but the players at the top run the game. Many low-ranking nations represent less than 0.25% of the world’s market. For them, oil exports are better counted in hundreds of dollars than millions. To demonstrate the unevenness, consider this: five exporters make up nearly 50% of all oil exports. It takes 100 countries to comprise the other half.”

Top 10 Exporters of Crude Oil
These are the top ten exporters of crude oil, ranked by earnings and their percentage of the world market.

1. Saudi Arabia – $136.2 Billion | 20.1%

2. Russia – $73.7 Billion | 10.9%

3. Iraq – $46.3 Billion | 6.8%

4. Canada – $39.5 Billion | 5.8%

5. United Arab Emirates – $38.9 Billion | 5.7%

6. Kuwait – $30.7 Billion | 4.5%

7. Iran – $29.1 Billion | 4.3%

8. Nigeria – $27 Billion | 4.0%

9. Angola – $25.2 Billion | 3.7%

10. Norway – $22.6 Billion | 3.3%

https://howmuch.net/articles/world-map-of-crude-oil-exports-2016

#51 Nonplused on 11.18.17 at 7:54 pm

#48 Loonie Doctor on 11.18.17 at 7:38 pm

“I forgot to mention. I do actually have solar panels on my barn. Thanks MicroFIT and I drive an e-assist bike to work. Just about counteracts the 41 foot diesel pusher motorhome I use for vacationing with the family. I am all about averaging.”

Sometimes you need a lighter, and sometimes you need a blow torch. It’s all about the averages.

#52 Lost...but not leased on 11.18.17 at 8:00 pm

Peak oil is BS..

Since Nixon removed the USD tied to Gold Prices….the Petrodollar has filled the void.

It appears that to stimulate economies, Oil and Gas exploration was the economic generator for many locales..moreso via Frakking and Oil Sands.

Then , the Saudis, on cue historically take charge and flood the markets with cheap oil to take down competitors…not much different than banks tightening of money supply.

The legacy appears to be major pollution in the water table, especially via Frakking…and displacement of people fro the rural to the urban environment.

Stir…and repeat.

#53 Brydle604 on 11.18.17 at 8:02 pm

#16 In BC electric cars will run on hydroelectricity, dam it!
It will be a Site to C.

If the B.C. NDP do not approve Site C I intend to vote with my feet and will convert my house to solar and they can buy my electricity.

I have a Model 3 on order, not an environmentalist however I sure like the idea of no Antifreeze, oil changes, longer brake wear, fuel it from my Solar panels.

Looking to buy a new 150K boat and will probably change my F150 for a new one.

balanced portfolio and Hive.ca stock doing really well.

Life is Good!

#54 Linda on 11.18.17 at 8:03 pm

I have to laugh when people say O&G will be obsolete in a few years. For fueling transportation, maybe – but not overnight & not for a while. Read an excellent article a couple of months back which pointed out that the main issue with electric cars is long distance driving/fueling up said vehicles in a timely manner. Cost of building ‘fast fuel’ electrical charging stations way to high to permit electric cars to be used for long distance driving any time soon. So, either better technology to solve that issue or relying on fossil fuels for long distance hauls for the foreseeable future.

As for O&G in general, our current society relies on it for one heck of a lot more than driving. Some think that future generations will be aghast at our having used O&G for anything other than the manufacture of commodities – driving not being the best & most efficient use of a non-renewable resource. So even if we all change over to electric or solar powered vehicles to get around in we will still be utilizing O&G to create all sorts of other items we use in day to day living.

#55 Doug Rowat on 11.18.17 at 8:04 pm

#44 Ace Goodheart on 11.18.17 at 7:20 pm.

Tesla’s new 1.9 second car looks interesting.

Ryan’s trading in his Porsche for one.

–Doug

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.17 at 8:08 pm

@#16 Cherry Picking
“You gas-loving, carbon-based paleos are in for a shock over the next decade….”
+++++++

Decade?
Bwahahahahahahaha.
You’ll be lucky to see electric cars out sell gas cars in the next 25 years.
FYI….. 25 years is about a generation.
Which is about how long most gas guzzling Boomers have to live and their brooding offspring that will continue to drive their hand me down cars…..

Or perhaps we’ll be driving one of THESE in the not too distant future?

http://www.damninteresting.com/the-atomic-automobile/

#57 D.D. Corkum on 11.18.17 at 8:28 pm

#4 Perfectly Corrolated on 11.18.17 at 4:10 pm

Paraphrasing: “Teranet HPI correlates inversely with market supply three months earlier; so it lags by three months.”

—-

Not a surprise. Its a rolling average of three months, so that alone implies 1.5 months of lag. Supposing the average legal closing is one month (made up number) after MLS listings become “sold”, that brings us to 2.5 months. That already gets us in the ballpark of three months, and of course the data is only published monthly so you can just round up.

#58 Millmech on 11.18.17 at 8:30 pm

Google says 72 million cars produced in 2016 worldwide,so 72 million batteries need to be made every year times ten years before they start to recycle the batteries.
I’ve worked at a battery recycling facility and it is not pretty,worked one shift and never went back.
Also how readily available is the battery material and how will it be retrieved,ie;strip mining and chemical separation for it to be able to be refined,
Another point is which countries,have the stores of these minerals,this is where the money will be made.

#59 For those about to flop... on 11.18.17 at 8:34 pm

CONFIRMED PINK DRAWS.

Here are a couple of cases that have been updated by the assessment people and so I will turn the results over to this blog.

Both of the cases were Possible Pinkies and both pretty much drew even after expenses.

The details…

Case 1

Paid 4.76

Asking 5.48

Sold for 5.1

7.1% gain before paying out expenses.

2277 LAWSON AVE WEST VANCOUVER paid 4.76 ass 4.84 asking 5.48 sold on June 18

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/2277-lawson-avenue

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=2277%20Lawson%20Avenue,%20West%20Vancouver&filter=1

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyOTNNRQ==

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOTNNRQ==

Case 2

Paid 1.86

Asking 2.08

Sold for 2.02

8.6% gain before known expenses,might have made a little but not enough to make it worth their time.

Better to be safe than sorry…

M43BC

4263 PORTLAND ST BURNABY paid 1.86 ass 1.69 asking 2.08 sold on June 12

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/4263-portland-street

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=4263%20Portland%20Street,%20Burnaby&filter=1

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzV0VQTg==

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzV0VQTg==

#60 Nick on 11.18.17 at 8:38 pm

Today’s gasoline is almost near the same prices we saw when oil was 100+

Man we get screwed hard here in Canada

#61 Nonplused on 11.18.17 at 8:59 pm

#54 Linda on 11.18.17 at 8:03 pm
“I have to laugh when people say O&G will be obsolete in a few years.”

Who is saying O&G will be obsolete in a few years? Even if we are “half through” the O&G age, which I estimate we may be, there is still another 100 years to go. The only difference is now consumption drops by 1.5% per year or some number rather than rising by said amount. Also it’s hard to call the peak, maybe even 20 years away depending on which reserve estimates you believe.

But peak fossil fuels will occur at some point. It has to. Finite resources do not meet well with infinite consumption.

#62 Smoking Man on 11.18.17 at 9:02 pm

I love Trump inspite of him killing Nafta and making escape from global communism impossible.

All good teck dev jobs have been offshored by big corps. My gig is to fix the offshore shit. I need a good sobar sales pitch at the border when I go for my Tn1

I’m going to pledge my soul to save American jobs and MAGA by fixing the shit off shore built. I love developing vba apps. Can’t compete on rate. But my dividend rocks with the big banks. Wierd place to be.

I’m going to stare down the border guard provided she’s not a chic with a brush cut and a propensity to hate white natural bald guys with my admiration to the Donald.

Love Trump even though I night not make it to California.

Deplorables are international hopefully my guy is a deplorable not a SJW hell bent on killing me and my kind.

#63 Tony on 11.18.17 at 9:04 pm

Just like as some people call them “the powers that be” subdue the price of gold and silver as Bitcoin explodes higher the same can be said of oil in the future. The powers that be will never let oil rise again for the sake of world growth. I hope you thought of this before risking money long oil.

#64 OttawaMike on 11.18.17 at 9:23 pm

27. Stan Brooks

It’s not that simple.

Norway’s fund divested coal in 2015. They buy socially responsible companies. They don’t buy tobacco or other similar shares.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/11/16/business/energy-environment/norway-fund-oil.html

#65 Long Branch Apprentice on 11.18.17 at 9:46 pm

Look up how much REE’s are in a Prius, then come tell me how “green”it is. South Park pretty much summed up the Prius driver mentality.

Me, I drive a 2011 Crown Victoria Police Interceptor. The thing has a 4.6L V8, same as a 5th Gen Mustang.

Mad Max here we come.

#66 Dmitry on 11.18.17 at 9:47 pm

So EV cars require electricity, obviously.
Electricity must be generated, it does not come from thin air (unlike Bitcoins).
Currently there is only 3 major ways to generate electricity – hydro, gas/coal and nuclear plants.
Hydro is not viable as dams have to be built and it’s very high impact on environment.
Generating electricity from gas/coal is no better that burning gasoline in cars today, same environmental impact. That leaves nuclear plants option.
But remember what happened after Fukushima accident in Japan in 2011 – looks like western world has some kind of ban on these.
Just look here – http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx
New nuclear power plans are being built in Russia, China, India, Pakistan and other Asian and Latin American countries. There’s very few exceptions, like Slovakia, Finland, USA.
So where all this electric power is going to come from???

Do not tell me solar panels as it’s not an option to power cars. Solar generated power is good to rip off Ontarians on taxes and waste lots of money to these companies who install/operate these panels in Ontario.

Nevermind batteries production, transportation and utilization. It will not end up well.

Tesla is such a scam. Stay away from it and Musk as far as you can.

So you buy this expensive EV and after 5 years when warranty is out what do you do with it? Would you be able to sell it as used? I really doubt it. With gasoline/diesel car it can be repaired at the shop for more or less reasonable cost (I do that myself for 90% of the time). But with EV, how to repair it? Where are these shops that will repair or replace battery? How much that will cost?
Looks like today the lifetime for the EV is only for how long the manufacturer gives the warranty.

Yes, today the quantities are insignificant and charging EVs does not cost a lot and in some cases can be free, but when majority of cars on the road will be EVs, how much do you thing it will cost and where all this electric power will come from?

Lots of questions and uncertainties about EVs for now.

#67 Damifino on 11.18.17 at 10:09 pm

#1 slick

I am a proud climate change denier.
——————————

I’m not a denier. It’s just that I don’t care.

#68 Ace Goodheart on 11.18.17 at 10:33 pm

Time beings that pull matter around themselves. But it changes them, this union with matter. It breaks down both. They can’t stay very long.

Humans have the least understanding of time. Everything else makes sense to us. But we can’t see the thing We’re made of.

Anyone who gets ahead here has to do it by out smarting time. Which is the ability to predict the future. That is what sets apart the successful investor from everyone else

#69 Smoking Man on 11.18.17 at 10:41 pm

The truth, it lies at an empty bottle of bravery.

It’s a cowards way of seeking the total truth.

However you get to it, I won’t judge you. I love every one when the bottle is done.

#70 Rexx Rock on 11.18.17 at 10:46 pm

Bitcoin is at all time highs!The future is Bitcoin and it will bring down the criminal world central banks.Good times are coming baby!

#71 History repeats on 11.18.17 at 10:47 pm

Hmmm interesting. They said the same thing about the typewriter and BlackBerries.

#72 Al on 11.18.17 at 11:01 pm

“Generating electricity from gas/coal is no better that burning gasoline in cars today, same environmental impac”

Its not even close, this should be clear with just a rudimentary understanding. You should read up on it.

In Ontario at least there’s no coal OPG plants. 90% of energy comes from so called renewables in Ontario (mostly nuclear).

EV batteries don’t stop working after 5 years. Some are warranted for 8 years like the Volt. Its like saying your powertrain on your car stops working after the 5yr warranty is over.

People have no issues reselling their 5 yr old expensive EV like a Tesla. In fact Tesla’s have the highest resale value in its class (ie depreciate the least).

The dealer will fix your battery for now, and once the batteries eventually age in a long time from now, a market will be created for this service too, like the batteries for old prius’. The price of batteries are and have been plumeting. The cost will be a non issue vs the alternative of buying gas for years and years.

#73 att on 11.18.17 at 11:04 pm

Another investment professional claiming to have a crystal ball. Yikes. Once again a diversified portfolio over the long term is the only way to go. This has been proven time and time again. Nobody should be buying anything but the broad market unless they have a 7 figure portfolio.

#74 Al on 11.18.17 at 11:10 pm

No offense to your Porsche Doug, but you should upgrade your car to the 21st century. The ROI on Ontario’s micro fit was phenomenal years ago, but that ship has sailed. A sharp tack as yourself shoulda been all over that. Not very often in ones lifetime does a government backed guaranteed investment pay that well.

#75 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.18.17 at 11:59 pm

#49 Gravy Train on 11.18.17 at 7:53 pm
#22 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.18.17 at 5:28 pm
“I like the idea of electric cars but electricity doesn’t just happen. Where is all the electricity going to come from?”

Two words: solar panels!

“The average electric cost per kWh in the US is 12 cents (first tier) and if you go by an estimated average of 15,000 miles driven per year, that’ll bring you to $540 additional electric costs annually.

“The average cost of a gallon of gas in the US is $2.35 and if you again go with an average of 15,000 miles driven per year, your total annual gas costs would be $1,400.”
https://www.thesolarco.com/charge-your-electric-car-with-solar-panels/
……………………………

Not gonna happen. Solar is not cost effective and won’t be for a long time, if ever. What do you in the winter when it is cloudy for 3 or 4 months ?

#76 Cherry Picker on 11.19.17 at 1:10 am

#66 FYI – EVs have much simpler designs, have fewer parts to break downs and are much more reliable. In crash tests, Teslas are rated as some of the safest cars on the road.

#77 Deplorable Dude on 11.19.17 at 1:20 am

#29 6% goal on 11.18.17 at 5:57 pm

Read about ‘Divendend growth’ investing…..

Or in a nutshell buy good quality boring stable stocks that have a long term record of increasing dividends…

….then hold them forever.

….if you are lucky after 10-15 years they will be paying out 10-12% dividends (based on your original purchase price)…..lovely passive income….increasing every year…..and the capital gain is just a nice bonus!

And even in a crash your passive income shouldn’t change…..very few blue chips cut dividends in 2008 for example.

#78 Big Daddy on 11.19.17 at 2:45 am

Absa-freakin-lootly correct……the predictions of sudden death for the energy complex is all noise. We had eight years of Obama spending billions on trying to create opportunity for his green carpet baggers friends….billions on threats, manipulation, coercion, fraud and massive coordinated propaganda campaigns to make it look like ‘99% of all scientists agreed’…..which we all know was absolute horse-hockey.

Obama sent his minions to Canada with billions to spend on creating subterfuge and noise, threatening professors with alienation and buying ad space enough to keep entire failing media outlets alive. I don’t know if if Trudeau is just an idiot or whether his bum patting sessions with Obama actually convinced him to listen to the frauds and manipulators close to him in Tides, Greenpeace, Farrallon Capital, Rockefeller, Saudi Aramco….who all wanted to shut Canada out as a competitor. My guess is that Trudeau really is a moron and is desperate to change that general opinion of himself by not acknowledging that Obamas climate program was a fraud and that the inconvieniant truth about Al Gore is that he is a hedge fund operator who profited mightily from investing in companies about to receive Obama subsidies.

Let’s get one thing clear….in all the time Obama was killing off Canadian companies he was busy signing into life some of Americas biggest oil and gas infrastructure projects in history…..he was a really big liar and our media let him get away with it.

Please….read the climate tax origin documents….The Brundtland Commission….where climate change was invented as a way to fund wealth distribution to the third world…..it was never about climate…..they spell that out plainly. Obviously the countries that vote for climate agenda are the countries who receive the funding. It’s a;l BS.

Trudeau and our Climate Barbie minister know this. I know this and have Ben buying companies cheap under pressure since the melt down……HSE, CVE, SU, PGF, IMO, ENB, ECA AND MORE ARE ALL ON MY BUY LIST AND I ACCUMULATE MONTHLY. THIS PORTFOLIO IS UP SMARTLY .

Did you read the Goldman report that gives 2018 a rocket profile. Don’t listen to Climate Barbie…..that’s just stupid. Ryan is right……buy now.

#79 Stan Brooks on 11.19.17 at 5:21 am

#66 Dmitry on 11.18.17 at 9:47 pm

Very weak arguments.

1. Majority of electricity for electric cars will come from coal, gas plants and renewables – solar, wind.
No need for oil.
There is coal and gas for centuries.

Electricity is much cheaper to deliver.

2. Automation and self driving on-demand cars will drive demand for oil down, probably 10 fold.

3. All major economies divest away from oil long term

4. All car companies invest in building electric cars and by 2025 majority of the new cars sold will be electric.

5. There will be incentives to drive electric cars. An electric car has practically zero maintenance and
a Tesla has less moving parts than the the fingers on your hands.

Your opinion won’t matter.

#80 Mike in Toronto on 11.19.17 at 6:16 am

#66 Dmitry

“Electricity must be generated, it does not come from thin air (unlike Bitcoins).”

Such a strange comment. Bitcoins are “proof of work”. Some estimate you could heat your house for a week from the energy to generate one.

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ywbbpm/bitcoin-mining-electricity-consumption-ethereum-energy-climate-change

#81 Dharma Bum on 11.19.17 at 8:32 am

Invest in oil & gas. And if you feel guilty, buy a Prius plug-in. – Doug
——————————————————————–

Good advice.

I’m embarking on a long ski trip in my gas pig Toyota Tundra: Toronto – Calgary – Montana – Utah – Colorado – Wyoming – Toronto.

The amount of fuel that is going to get sucked up by that beast of a truck will be sure to raise the world’s oil consumption by hundreds of barrels a day!

Oil and gas investors rejoice.

Don’t mention it.

#82 Renter's Revenge! on 11.19.17 at 8:47 am

#29 6% goal on 11.18.17 at 5:57 pm
Garth mentions often ; if you have $ 1 million invested in a balanced portfolio then that averages 6 % a year .. which equals $ 5 k a month

fine i get that .. but how does one get that regular cash each month to pay rent instead of owning a house ??

yes the dividends can pay out average of up to 3 % but the other 3 % ??

does one only sell a bunch of high flying ETF’s in a good market and bank the cash to spend .?
what happens in a bear market ??
not a good time to sell

and if one sells regularly one gets hammered with capital gains in a non reg account ..

please help someone

=========

Sell your equities in bull markets, sell your bonds in bear markets, replenish your bonds after the bears turn back into bulls, and hope everything works out.

Not everything you sell is a capital gain. Some of it is your original principal, and some of it is reinvested dividends from your accumulation years (which you already paid taxes on), which you don’t pay tax on. Even then you don’t really get hammered with capital gains tax, since it’s half the tax rate on employment income. You also get income-tested government benefits clawed back at a much lower rate when you have income from capital gains than from dividends, because they count as less income.

#83 Tbone on 11.19.17 at 8:50 am

Electric engines don’t have an exhaust note, mainly because there is no exhaust.Think food mixer.
Listen to the exhaust note of that 5.0 coyote engine in the mustang.
More intoxicating than a bottle of Jack.
Row your own gears…. pure heaven.

In other news , the building industry is considering heat pumps to help heat the homes . Very efficient machines , as you all know there is heat in the air until molecules cease to move. That would be absolute zero.
Heat pumps are still 250 % efficient at 17 F . They move heat from outdoor air and transfer it into the indoor air through the refrigerant in the coils. That is $ 2.50 for every dollar of electricity you buy.And about 400% at 47 F .
Technology will save you all.Don’t worry.

#84 Doug Rowat on 11.19.17 at 8:55 am

#73 att on 11.18.17 at 11:04 pm

Another investment professional claiming to have a crystal ball. Yikes. Once again a diversified portfolio over the long term is the only way to go.

I don’t disagree. The market timing we do amounts to a gradual tilting of a fully diversified portfolio–never a concentrated wager. Downside risk needs to be minimized and we’re smart enough to know we’re often wrong.

–Doug

#85 Penny Henny on 11.19.17 at 9:15 am

Price of regular gas in Welland is 112.2/liter today.

#86 Tbone on 11.19.17 at 9:16 am

Further to my rant on heat pumps, if you use one in conjuction with your 96% efficient gas furnace , the heat pump will operate down to 32 f before the machine can’t heat the house by itself so the gas furnace kicks in to bring the temperature up.
75 % of the time it’s above 32 f in Toronto.
Heat pumps double as air conditioners also so you can be cool in summer.
Oh ya , electricity is 5X more expensive than gas.
Consider who you vote for next election.

#87 The Great Gazoo on 11.19.17 at 9:16 am

Stan Brooks #14 & #79

“2. Within one decade we will witness explosion of electric and self driving cars which will reduce dramatically the need for oil. Like 10 fold”

Wow, some pretty bold statements in your posts, the above as one example. You seem pretty locked into your position. I encourage you and others to keep an open mind to another point of view. Here is a well researched article on EVs and their potential impact on oil consumption:

The EV Myth – Electric Car Threat To Oil Is Wildly Overstated

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-EV-Myth-Electric-Car-Threat-To-Oil-Is-Wildly-Overstated.html

Nawar Alsaadi, the author of the above article was recently interviewed as one of 3 experts by the Wall Street Journal on this very topic- so he someone worth listening to.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-electric-vehicles-replace-gas-powered-ones-1510628461

I think Doug is right on with his recommendation that “your portfolio should have oil & gas exposure”

Gazoo

#88 Penny Henny on 11.19.17 at 9:27 am

#29 6% goal on 11.18.17 at 5:57 pm
Garth mentions often ; if you have $ 1 million invested in a balanced portfolio then that averages 6 % a year .. which equals $ 5 k a month

fine i get that .. but how does one get that regular cash each month to pay rent instead of owning a house ??

yes the dividends can pay out average of up to 3 % but the other 3 % ??

does one only sell a bunch of high flying ETF’s in a good market and bank the cash to spend .?
what happens in a bear market ??
not a good time to sell

and if one sells regularly one gets hammered with capital gains in a non reg account ..

please help someone
//////////////////////

My plan is to keep 2-3 years of cash readily available.
So if I need 60k per year and 30k is coming from dividends then I will keep 90k in cash.
That way in a good year I will sell some high flying etf’s to keep the float stocked up and in the bad years I will draw off the cash so that I’m not forced to sell my etf’s at a loss.

#89 For those about to flop... on 11.19.17 at 9:28 am

As tomorrow marks the ten month milestone in the tumultuous Trump presidency ,it is slowly dawning on him that his administration is struggling to Make America Great Again (MAGA)

Political experts are now expecting a pivot away from his previous “My way or the highway ” approach and now with a little bit more experience under his belt to re-release his slogan with a couple of more options that citizens can identify with as the state of their nation.

Nothing has apparently been finalized as yet but Make America Good,Great Or Tremendous (MAGGOT) seems like the front runner at this stage of proceedings…

M43BC

#90 Tesla truckin... on 11.19.17 at 9:31 am

$200,000 with 22 ton batteries charged up in 30 minutes for 500 mile range.. yeah baby hauling ass…!!

Thank goodness Trump will give him all the coal mines needed to power that thing

http://driving.ca/tesla/auto-news/news/motor-mouth-the-inconvenient-truth-about-teslas-truck

He hopes to die on Mars apparently….

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.17 at 9:42 am

@#75 Four Fingers Sherlock
“Not gonna happen. Solar is not cost effective and won’t be for a long time, if ever. What do you in the winter when it is cloudy for 3 or 4 months ?”
++++++

3 or 4 months …..Where the Hell do you live …Venus?

UV rays baby. Dats what Im talkin ’bout.

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://solarpowerrocks.com/solar-basics/how-do-solar-panels-work-in-cloudy-weather/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjI5Iy778rXAhVU-WMKHbC2AOYQFgggMAM&usg=AOvVaw1wnYdiKTYPNAsqWd8dImaW

#92 NoName on 11.19.17 at 9:42 am

We all know that i an not britest bulb on a porch but i was thinking, what happens to bitcon, when quantum computing fully comes on line, i winde will superposition, entanglement and qubits be inflatory trigger. me thinks that quantum computor will be able to generate $#!7 load of new coins in no time…

This
|1↑,|0↓

vs This (if i got formula correct)

|1>, |0>+ |1>, √1/2(|0> − i|1>)>, 1/√1/3(|0>+ |1>+ |1>), √(2/3|0i+ √i/3|1>).

#93 Ace Goodheart on 11.19.17 at 9:44 am

RE: #80 Mike in Toronto on 11.19.17 at 6:16 am
#66 Dmitry

“Electricity must be generated, it does not come from thin air (unlike Bitcoins).”

Such a strange comment. Bitcoins are “proof of work”. Some estimate you could heat your house for a week from the energy to generate one.”

The “work” required to “produce” a bitcoin is totally nuts though. It is just creation of nonsense code. Yes it requires a lot of computing power to do it, but the result is garbage. In order to verify that a bitcoin exists (so you can do a transaction with it) you have to go through this massive amount of nonsense code, meaning that you can only do 7 transactions per second. This is for the entire world.

That is like saying that only seven people per second can spend US dollars.

So a bunch of computer geeks produce a long messy code of matching algorithms using a particular type of computer code, and then have to verify each one every time they use it.

This makes sense to computer geeks. Everyone else is like, shaking their head “why don’t you just produce the physical coins?”

#94 Reality 1 on 11.19.17 at 9:51 am

I stopped posting on this site some weeks ago after realizing that postings here largely reflect the faulty thinking fueling the delusional zeitgeist of our times.

“investing” in bitcoin? – get real (yeah, and its untraceable – riiight as the IRS has just demanded the records from the biggest exchange for tax evasion)

“moving to Europe for a better working life” – not feasible for most (I reside there )

“EV’s will replace ICE vehicle demand by 2025” – sure thing (make obsolete people’s second biggest asset / expense after housing) – not until the solid state battery is cheap enough / widely available

“house prices will only ever go up” – unaffordable now (and will consume all discretionary after tax income of those who are supposed to buy them off of the boomers) – the gig economy ain’t consistent with 7 to 12 times income house purchases

“solar / wind will power our world forward” – not a chance in a EV predominate world and nations rapidly industrializing

etc., etc., etc.

No one knows how this will actually play out, but BANKING or INVESTING on these outcomes will certainly bring disappointment.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.17 at 9:54 am

@#76 Cherry Picker
“In crash tests, Teslas are rated as some of the safest cars on the road…..”
++++++

Statistically the safest color to paint a car is pink.
Pink colored cars get in the fewest accidents.
So.
If we can extrapolate your info and mine.
Pink Teslas should be…. by far…. the safest cars on the road.

How much oil byproduct does it take to make a Tesla?
The plastic, the epoxy, the lubricants ( unless we go back to whaling), …..
The oil industry, the steel industry and all their billions of dollars of lobbyist money to sway govts and public opinion, will, unfortunately, be around for a long long time…..

#96 Penny Henny on 11.19.17 at 10:05 am

#44 Ace Goodheart on 11.18.17 at 7:20 pm

But there must be other electric cars, right? So we had a look at the VW E-Golf. What an amazing little runabout that is. After rebates all in, we can get a “comfortline” which is the mid model with more options than the “trendline” base model, for around 24K CDN including all taxes. We were ecstatic. I booked a test drive.

Email from the dealer. Unfortunately they have a very limited supply, they are all gone already, and they expect to sell all the 2018’s before they actually show up on the lot (pre-sales). We could get in line to purchase one, but we could never test drive one (they can’t actually get any demos) and it would be a while before we saw our car.
/////

The 14K question is ‘Will there still be a $14,000 rebate from the Ontario government in two or three years?’

#97 WUL on 11.19.17 at 10:11 am

Smoking Man:

You can add this to your repertoire if it suits. I had my meal in Edmonton last night at an Irish style pub. There were quotes on the wall from Irish literary types. How ’bout this:

“I’m a drinker with a writing problem.”

Brendan Behan

#98 EV expert on 11.19.17 at 10:11 am

RE: Therefore it makes sense to build a long-term portfolio with at least some oil & gas exposure and we should, from an investment perspective, rid ourselves of the notion that renewable energy and electric cars will somehow loosen our grip on fossil fuel consumption any time soon.
I have a different perspective, and I respectfully disagree. I’m on the board of directors of a non-profit that’s related to EV’s. There’s a lot going on that most people are not aware of yet. In the short-term oil and gas may do fine, but the higher the price, the faster the transition to EV’s (however, even lower oil prices won’t stop the transition to EV’s). It will happen faster that many people expect.
For the past several years, EV sales have been increasing by 40% annually. This 40% annual growth is expected to continue or even increase. While still small compared to fossil fuel car sales, in 2017 sales are expected to reach one million EV’s worldwide. This compares to just 50,000 in 2011.
Electric Car Sales Are Surging, IEA Reports:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-07/electric-car-market-goes-zero-to-2-million-in-five-years

The Electric-Car Boom Is So Real Even Oil Companies Say It’s Coming:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-25/electric-car-boom-seen-triggering-peak-oil-demand-in-2030s

So why would EV sales increase so much?
First, they are getting better, they are cheaper to buy, and now there are many different EV’s. They were always much cheaper to operate. I would argue that the total life cycle costs over the long term are already lower than a gas car. My argument is based on real data that I’ve collecting. In 2011, I paid about $10000 more to buy an EV than a gas car. In the past 6 years, I have saved $10500 in energy costs alone (instead of paying $12600 in gas, my hydro cost was $2100 in total over the six years). Recently hydro prices in Ontario have dropped, so I’m now spending about $20 – $25 to drive 1000 – 1200km each month. In regular driving, it costs 4 to 6 times more to drive with gas, vs electricity. In slow moving rush hour traffic, EV’s are so efficient, that driving a gas vehicle costs about 20 times more!
EV’s do require some maintenance, but it’s much less than gas cars. The maintenance is primarily for tires, brakes and suspension. However, the brakes will last much longer due to regenerative braking (charges the battery while slowing down). There’s no oil changes, no transmission, no exhaust, etc.
Typically, you just need to get your car checked just once per year. The motor itself requires zero maintenance over the entire life of the car. Maybe that’s why people say there is no maintenance, because while the motor in an EV doesn’t need any, gasoline engines need to be maintained or they stop working.
The biggest obstacle EV’s face is a lack of education by the general public. Once people figure out they can do all of their driving (energy cost) for less than they pay for their cell phone plan, they take notice. The savings are hard to ignore.
If you want to learn more, you can visit the EV discovery centre in Toronto. If you have a drivers licence, you can test drive an EV for free with no pressure to buy one (no dealers).
https://plugndrive.ca/electric-vehicle-discovery-centre

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.17 at 10:13 am

Bobby Mugabe Update . dateline Zimbabwe. 1 hour ago.

Poor doddering dictator Bobby Mugabe.
Whats a vile aging despot to do when his own army threatens to “unleash the mob” if he doesnt step down by Monday?

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN1DJ069-OCATP

How dare the common rabble think in terms of self preservation when the unemployment rate is 90% and inflation is rising by 50% per month…..

I’m sure other murderous dictators the world over are mildy amused and shaking their heads in disbelief…..

“It will never happen in North Korea….the people love me”, stated Kim Jong-Un in an interview with Geraldo Rivera, between bites of food. “Even the Dotard said he’d sit down and have a hamburger with me….I’m a likeable guy, hand me those fries.”.

#100 EV expert on 11.19.17 at 10:24 am

Reply to #96 Penny Henny

I’ve test driven the VW E-Golf, and it’s a really nice car. If you live in the Toronto area, you can try one out by visiting the EV Discovery Centre at 1126 Finch Avenue West, North York, M3J 3J6.

Vehicles Available for Test Drive*

BMW i3
Chevrolet BOLT
Chevrolet VOLT
Ford C-Max Energi
Volkswagen e-Golf

They might be able to help you with how you can actually buy one as well.

https://plugndrive.ca/electric-vehicle-discovery-centre

Note that a facility similar to this will be opening in Ottawa as well (I don’t know exactly when yet).

#101 Ace Goodheart on 11.19.17 at 10:28 am

RE: #70 Rexx Rock on 11.18.17 at 10:46 pm
Bitcoin is at all time highs!The future is Bitcoin and it will bring down the criminal world central banks.Good times are coming baby!”

My concern with bitcoin is margin trading. It would appear that very few of the people currently purchasing bitcoins for around $9000 CDN actually HAVE $9000.00 CDN. It is being bought for pennies on the dollar on margin. The idea seems to be that it will only decrease a certain amount, and then regain to new heights, so margin trading is a possibility.

But if all of that new growth is borrowed money on margin, you have to always find another margin trader to sell your bitcoins to. No one has $9000 CDN to spend on a bitcoin.

This is a shaky pyramid of debt.

#102 Capt. Serious on 11.19.17 at 10:31 am

Exxon Mobil is the eight highest weight in the S&P500, Chevron and ConocoPhillips are in the top 100, and BP is a huge weight in the FTSE100. You have exposure to oil and gas if you own indexes. Move along.

#103 dosouth on 11.19.17 at 10:37 am

The greed for returns in the energy sector may kill it before its natural death. How stupid does the world think consumers are when oil falls again and pump prices remain the same time and time again. Gouging but then again…we continue to pay. Can’t fix stupid I guess?!

#104 6% goal on 11.19.17 at 11:02 am

thanks Penny Henny and Renters Revenge

i guessed it was something on those lines ; keeping cash in reserve .. hurrah for less tax on capital gains ..

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.17 at 11:02 am

@#96 penny Henny
“‘Will there still be a $14,000 rebate from the Ontario government in two or three years?’”
+++++

Nah. The Wynne govt is toast.
Eventually even social justice warriors get tired of rising unemployment and rising taxes…..unless of course, you’re part of the “living wage” experiment……

#106 Wrk.dover on 11.19.17 at 11:15 am

Electric cars need no maintenance. They say.

I have had my present daily gas car 16 years with now 225,000km on it which has a very negligible amount of maintenance on the drive train other than oil, filters, plugs and coolant, but hoo boy the rest of it sure gets an ample cash flow. Lots and lots of maintenance.

Brakes, wheel hub/bearing assemblies, tires, undercoat, repeat often. Struts, and batteries! Wait and see what the wheel hub assembly costs on the regenerating EV. Probably a minimum of a grand times four and will last 100,000km in salt country.

Long live King Oil.

By the way, no sign of snow in SW Nova yet this season, 16C today too.

#107 The Great Gazoo on 11.19.17 at 11:15 am

#94 Reality 1

“I stopped posting on this site some weeks ago after realizing that postings here largely reflect the faulty thinking fueling the delusional zeitgeist of our times.”

Always value your posts and would search for them. Encourage you to continue to share your views. Assume I am not alone.

#108 Evangeline on 11.19.17 at 11:21 am

Is investing in pipelines interchangeable with investing in oil and gas?

#109 Dmitry on 11.19.17 at 11:24 am

#79 Stan Brooks

You did not understand.
I’m not for oil and not against EVs at all.
I’m actually for new technologies, improvement, inefficiencies, evolution, etc.
I could care less about oil companies stock, etc.
All I’m saying is where the electricity is going to come from to power all these EVs in the near/mid future?
Everyone is saying that nuclear generated power, like it’s a given.
Where are these nuclear plant? Are they in the works? Not even planned anything until 2025 or later.
Hell, in Ontario liberals even closed two gas power plans to buy votes.
Russia and China are building these nuclear power plans like crazy.
Russian “Rosatom” building lots nuclear power plants over the world.
Russia is buying it’s way into owning as much uranium as it can.
Just Google “clinton rosatom collusion”.
This is from Forbes article:
“donations to the Clinton Foundation were behind the Obama administration’s approval of the 2010 sale of a Canadian mining company to a Russian state-controlled firm. The sale gave Russia control of a large swath of American uranium interests.”
Everything is beautiful here, especially Obama’s approval of Canadian mining company sell to “Rosatom”, like we’re another US state and do not have our own government to approve or disapprove such things.
Bit everyone blames “russian hackers” and “Donald Trump is Putin’s friend”.
That’s why people voted Trump in (for good or bad) – they’ve got tired of these losers in their government that approve sale of uranium companies strategic assets to other countries for mere bribes.
Now back to Canada again.
I’m not buying the argument that on the global scale Canada does not matter.
Yes, Russia, China, India and other countries will have cheap nuclear generated electric power.
But we live in Canada.
Hydro bills are crazy as is now, so is this going to improve or get worse?
All these electric charging stations, I wonder how much profit are they making or they’re there just for hype?
In few years when EVs are all over and hype is over these have to make profit, so with ever increasing electricity costs, how much would be to charge EV?
Some people made comments here that nuclear is renewable energy. Well, it’s not, just like fossil fuels, it has to be mined and refined and it’s finite.
Renewable energy is solar, wing and geothermal and I can’t even imagine how many square kilometers of solar panels one has to have here in Ontario to generate power equal to power generated by single nuclear power plant and how much to install/maintain all this (nevermind producing all these solar panels).
I think about renewable energy as supplemental to main sources (like nuclear, hydro and gas/coal) where make sense, but not primary source.

#110 Dmitry on 11.19.17 at 11:30 am

#80 Mike in Toronto

Such a strange comment.
Some estimate that you can jump 5 times, turn left, turn right, sit, stand, bend forward, bend backward and you could heat, if not a whole house, at least yourself by the energy you’ve just generated.
That proves that jumping, sitting, standing is “proof of work”.

#111 LivinLarge on 11.19.17 at 12:14 pm

6%

“does one only sell a bunch of high flying ETF’s in a good market and bank the cash to spend .?
what happens in a bear market ??
not a good time to sell

and if one sells regularly one gets hammered with capital gains in a non reg account ..”

Not quite certain what you are confused about…yes, you trade shares or units to obtain your day to day budget cashflow. And no, don’t worry about cap gains taxes, their simply a cost of doing business. And of all the income streams, they are the least hit by taxes, just your marginal rate on 1/2 the gains.

So, throw your coin into the pot, take what your budget needs knowing that if you never take out any more than the portfolio grew in a year then you have never decreased your initial capital position.

Life is there to live not to spend all of it fretting the little shit.

#112 Basil Fawlty on 11.19.17 at 12:14 pm

In 2004, the price of oil averaged $43.67/barrel and the combined net income of the worlds 7 largest oil companies was $99.2B.
In 2016, oil averaged $43.67/barrel, yet combined profits totalled $10.5B.
Looking at Exxon alone their net income in the same time period dropped from $25.3B to $7.8B
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the long term debt of these 7 majors has increased from $96B to $379B.

So, what is going on here? For one thing, Capital Expenditures have risen from $67.7B in 2004 to $117.5B in 2016. Why? Since it is taking more and more energy to get oil out of the ground. For example in the 1930’s, it took one barrel of oil to return 100 barrels in the US. Today, in the US shale industry, one barrel of oil provides a return of 5 barrels.

#113 chapter 9 on 11.19.17 at 12:24 pm

#42 genbizx
self driving cars? tech types are so excited about this stuff but:

Right now a ten year old kid can get you killed by merely placing stickers on a stop sign. What this does is confuse the cars sign detection algorithms causing the car to think that the stop sign is a 45 mph speed sign. Just a little bug that has to be worked out!

#114 For those about to flop... on 11.19.17 at 12:30 pm

Since there is some talk about different energy sources, I will put this article back up from a few months ago talking about how different states have different energy costs depending on what the source is.

Dominated by Coal and Natural Gas with primary usage in 19 and 20 States respectively ,the Pacific Northwest breaks it up with a bit of Hydroelectric action and the Carolina’s are going Nuclear…

M43BC

“This Map Shows How Your Energy Source is Driving Your Electricity Bill
Most of us become aware of our electricity costs during the summer when the weather is hot and our air conditioners are on full blast. In fact, the bulk of most American homes electricity costs come from central air conditioning and electrical heating pumps. The average cost to use central air or an electrical heating pump is nearly 4-times as high as the second least efficient product, which is your clothes dryer. Obviously, the cost of electricity plays a large role in calculating your electric bills, and the states with the most expensive electricity costs use natural gas or nuclear to generate their electricity. The highest average electricity bill by State is nearly double the least expensive, and it’s all because of the source used to generate electricity.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/electric-bill-cost-by-state

#115 Lost...but not leased on 11.19.17 at 12:38 pm

Electric Cars are the Bitcoin of auto industry.

Bitcoin is the Elon Musk of the currency markets.

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.17 at 1:17 pm

Whoo Hoo
Doug broke the 100 comments barrier!
Big Oil vs EV…….garanteed to create lotsa comments

#117 NoName on 11.19.17 at 1:19 pm

#98 EV expert on 11.19.17 at 10:24 am

What kind of expert don’t know that c-max energy is being discontinued as of soon.

https://insideevs.com/ford-c-max-energi-production-comes-to-an-end/

#118 LivinLarge on 11.19.17 at 1:45 pm

“Read about ‘Divendend growth’ investing…..

Or in a nutshell buy good quality boring stable stocks that have a long term record of increasing dividends…

….then hold them forever.

….if you are lucky after 10-15 years they will be paying out 10-12% dividends (based on your original purchase price)…..lovely passive income….increasing every year…..and the capital gain is just a nice bonus!”

This advice from Deplorabale Dude” is valid now, has been valid for a hundred years and there is no reason to expect that it will be invalid for another 100 years.

The only proviso I’ll throw out is to be VERY careful choosing the shares you’re intending to hold forever. There are blue chips that have crashed and burned before and there will be some that crash and burn in the future.

I have mentioned here many times that I have settled on the top two Canadian banks as my repository of wealth. These just work for me and my risk comfort level. Canadian banks are very well managed and HIGHLY regulated making them essentially government run NGOs. This doesn’t hold true for banks in virtually any other jurisdiction, especially the US.

From 08-12 CDN bank share prices crashed with the economy like almost everything else but they never cut or suspended their divs. The major CDN banks also have rarely missed increasing their common share divs at least once per year for many decades so an ever increasing div yield is easily expected and that 10-12% effective yield mentioned isn’t out of the ordinary over time.

The other thing that the major CDN banks do on some regularity (unlike most blue chips) is split their shares to keep the board lot price below $10K.

So, if you want a totally safe, secure, liquid home for your wealth and a safe, secure and growing income stream sent like clockwork every 90 days then Canadian bank common shares will certainly do all of that for you.

If you are relatively young with a long time horizon then becoming familiar with Dividend Reinvestment Plans and reinvest your divs back into the shares. You may not become wealthy fast but neither will you become poor fast.

#119 EV expert on 11.19.17 at 2:13 pm

Reply to 117 No Name

#98 EV expert on 11.19.17 at 10:24 am

What kind of expert don’t know that c-max energy is being discontinued as of soon.

The Ford C-max is a plug in hybrid. It was simply in a list of vehicles that are available for test drives at that location. Maybe it’s being discontinued because Ford is planning to produce other EV’s instead:

http://www.hybridcars.com/ford-starting-new-team-edison-to-develop-evs/

Marakby said that Ford is on schedule to deliver 13 electrified vehicles over the next five years. Seven of those have already been announced. Those already announced include a hybrid F-150, Mustang, and Transit Connect. Ford said that the hybrid F-150 would be available by 2020, and that the hybrid Mustang would be revealed that year. Two new electrified police vehicles have also been announced. The first of the two, the Fusion-based Police Responder Hybrid, was revealed earlier this year.

The company had already announced that a fully electric SUV is in the works. The SUV is slated to have an estimated range in excess of 300 miles, and is set to be revealed by 2020.

#120 Tbone on 11.19.17 at 2:49 pm

# 118 Livin Large

I have to agree with you, I own many shares of the green bank
Plus other blue chip dividend paying stocks.
I can actually live off the dividends along with ccp which I took early .
A self made pension plan and I own all the principal .

Owning one stock is no sound strategy. — Garth

#121 Dave on 11.19.17 at 2:50 pm

Throw in the fact that Saudi and Iran’s proxy war will probably spill out onto their own countries.

MBS is also threading a tight line with jailing all his billionaire buddies.

I think the market has not put any risk premium on this, and in fact trades off weekly USA rig counts and oil inventories.

Every day there seems to be an Algo short attack on oil around 11:30. Taking the oil futures lower and going short the stocks.

Just my observasions.

#122 Pillboy on 11.19.17 at 3:10 pm

Sorry Doug, I’ve got to disagree with you on this one. If I were ever to change around my with my fun money, it wouldn’t be to add oil and gas, but to add more Tesla on the dips, and I have. I already have enough oil and gas by being balanced, but most indices do not have this one company that’s breaking all the traditional rules.

The signs that we are moving away from oil and gas are all too apparent, but they’re there.
1) Countries grappling with pollution problems investing heavily into renewables
2) Countries slowly divesting their fossil fuel assets (Saudi Arabia, Norweigian Sovereign Fund)
3) Companies breaking away from traditional utilities by arranging power purchase agreements with renewable assets.
4) Greater push back from the oil/gas industry, the big automotive companies against renewables.
5) Lobbying towards Hydrogen Fuel cells (touted as cleaner than EV, but with more infrastructure costs, and highly energy inefficient from beginning to end)

My money is with the CEO who has founded several billion dollars companies, who is landing rocket boosters on drone ships and on landing sites, which by the way has been said was impossible. Those same naysayers are seeing their launch market share being eroded quickly.

As we talk about EV’s, there’s lots of people uncomfortable with it because it’s newer, and that’s fine. All the arguments being made about EVs being more expensive, taking too long to charge, have now been addressed, and the improvements are going to continue.

I’m looking forward to the future, and for those who are stuck in the past, here’s some food for thought. It’s a video of Steve Ballmer laughing off the initial iPhone reveal.

https://youtu.be/eywi0h_Y5_U

As Mahatma Ghandi said, “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win”.

#123 akashic record on 11.19.17 at 3:12 pm

#92 NoName on 11.19.17 at 9:42 am

We all know that i an not britest bulb on a porch but i was thinking, what happens to bitcon, when quantum computing fully comes on line, i winde will superposition, entanglement and qubits be inflatory trigger. me thinks that quantum computor will be able to generate $#!7 load of new coins in no time…

===

If I recall correctly, quantum computing will be faster because it will (to paraphrase it) pull the extra resources from parallel universe(s).

I like the idea, but I also realize that it may take a little while.

#124 Reality 1 on 11.19.17 at 3:16 pm

to # 107 Great Gazoo

Thank you for your kind words today.

Most postings I have made here are a distillation of my daily reading of world / business news for up to 12 hours a day. (I really enjoy it and have the means to commit that kind of time – 6 days a week)

I have tried to raise the level of discourse here for the betterment of all readers, but have learned that on this blog that this is folly. I like intelligent debate (it tests your thinking and can reveal flaws therein) , but I find that sadly lacking on this site.

After seeing the preoccupation with the “Screwed Canadian Millennial ” saga and Mr. Turner’s lengthy indulgence thereof, I realized that I was unlikely to add much value to this blog.

Accordingly, I erred in posting today and am unlikely to do so in future. Again, thanks for the compliment.

#125 akashic record on 11.19.17 at 3:19 pm

Owning one stock is no sound strategy. — Garth

It is a horrible idea.

It’s tempting though, when a monopoly or a cartel is behind it, with the full support of governments over a long period time.

#126 Keith on 11.19.17 at 3:19 pm

What’s happening in the world’s largest economy, and biggest user of coal?

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/18/technology/china-us-clean-energy-solar-farm/index.html

#127 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.19.17 at 3:36 pm

#118 LivinLarge on 11.19.17 at 1:45 pm
“Read about ‘Divendend growth’ investing…..

Or in a nutshell buy good quality boring stable stocks that have a long term record of increasing dividends…

….then hold them forever.

….if you are lucky after 10-15 years they will be paying out 10-12% dividends (based on your original purchase price)…..lovely passive income….increasing every year…..and the capital gain is just a nice bonus!”

This advice from Deplorabale Dude” is valid now, has been valid for a hundred years and there is no reason to expect that it will be invalid for another 100 years.

The only proviso I’ll throw out is to be VERY careful choosing the shares you’re intending to hold forever. There are blue chips that have crashed and burned before and there will be some that crash and burn in the future.

I have mentioned here many times that I have settled on the top two Canadian banks as my repository of wealth. These just work for me and my risk comfort level. Canadian banks are very well managed and HIGHLY regulated making them essentially government run NGOs. This doesn’t hold true for banks in virtually any other jurisdiction, especially the US.

From 08-12 CDN bank share prices crashed with the economy like almost everything else but they never cut or suspended their divs. The major CDN banks also have rarely missed increasing their common share divs at least once per year for many decades so an ever increasing div yield is easily expected and that 10-12% effective yield mentioned isn’t out of the ordinary over time.

The other thing that the major CDN banks do on some regularity (unlike most blue chips) is split their shares to keep the board lot price below $10K.

So, if you want a totally safe, secure, liquid home for your wealth and a safe, secure and growing income stream sent like clockwork every 90 days then Canadian bank common shares will certainly do all of that for you.

If you are relatively young with a long time horizon then becoming familiar with Dividend Reinvestment Plans and reinvest your divs back into the shares. You may not become wealthy fast but neither will you become poor fast.
………………………….
My strategy exactly and i always buy the dips (2009)or when they pay 4%+ dividend. Bought NA about 18 months ago at $44 when it was paying 5% div., it is currently at $63. I dont need the divvy so I DRIP it. I don’t pay any advisors and i sleep well at night.

#128 Lost...but not leased on 11.19.17 at 3:41 pm

Re: EV cars

Always amusing when people jump onto the environmental bandwagon without doing even reasonable due diligence.

Some parties are advising people to LEASE..not buy EV cars. Any problems? jingle mail to the leasing agent.

Next….we are talking logistics etc.
Is there a potential Rockefeller-esque stranglehold in the crucial supply chain of raw materials to finished product ?

Seems LITHIUM is a key component in the all important EV battery.

As it stands, Australia is the largest producer of Lithium..followed by (in order)Chile, Argentina, China Zimbabwe. aka the top 5 producers

NOTE: Zimbabwe unstable via Mugabe overthrown?

Other than Aussies..do the other (4)nations have stable democratic gov’ts, or would a dependence on “Lithium “make EV fans subject to the same bullsh*te of market manipulation we suffered under OPEC for the last 40+ years. (aka if Lithium market gets rigged by Wall Street scum, people will almost unilaterally vote with their wallets back to Oil and Gas, and not their bleeding SJW hearts.)

Also: how do EV’s deal with cold weather?…are they able to function ?

Regardless…devil=in the details ..do the homework…

#129 Stan Brooks on 11.19.17 at 3:44 pm

#109 Dmitry on 11.19.17 at 11:24 am

Repeating:
1. Electricity will come from gas, coal = hundreds of years of reserves + renewables – solar, wind.

2. self driving automated on- demand cars will eliminate 80-90 % of the traffic and the need for oil.
cars can easily drive on natural gas as well instead of oil.

3. you will be surprised on how easy it will be to provide the electricity for these cars.

Walk in to Finch subway station in Toronto and above the subway parking spots you will see giant 110 KVolt power lines. Electricity is directed trough 10 and 20 kVolt cables to local transformation stations and to 110 volt home supply. It may turn out the energy needed for electric cars is 10 % of the power consumption in Toronto/the big cities.

You won’t even need new infrastructure.
Just better batteries, guaranteed to come in 5-6 years time frame.

Charge at home for 800 km distance, plug in at work.
10 min load. Impossible you say?

Let’s see.

Oil is doomed in mid to long term. Specially dirty oil which will never has it’s day.

Finished, Caput,

#130 Tbone on 11.19.17 at 3:58 pm

#120 Garth

I totally agree with you, I own many shares of the big Green one ,
But it is less than 20 % of my portfolio .
Own 3 banks , energy , etfs, mutual funds, index funds, and good old cash . I deal with 4 institutions .You know, spread it out a little.
Lots of diversification , as you suggest .
I won’t ever mention my favourite mutual fund by name again, lol.
I am a believer of what you preach .
Keep up the good work.

#131 NoName on 11.19.17 at 4:02 pm

#123 akashic record on 11.19.17 at 3:12 pm
#92 NoName on 11.19.17 at 9:42 am

We all know that i an not britest bulb on a porch but i was thinking, what happens to bitcon, when quantum computing fully comes on line, i winde will superposition, entanglement and qubits be inflatory trigger. me thinks that quantum computor will be able to generate $#!7 load of new coins in no time…

===

If I recall correctly, quantum computing will be faster because it will (to paraphrase it) pull the extra resources from parallel universe(s).

I like the idea, but I also realize that it may take a little while.

many advances happened recently, not no mention of another dimension…

watch this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYESkqXVWa0

#132 Alberta Ed on 11.19.17 at 4:03 pm

A peer-reviewed study by two Carnegie Mellon University researchers which is soon to be published in the American Chemical Society’s ACS Energy Letters found that a full-size tractor trailer that Musk wants to travel 300 to 600 miles a day, would need a 14 ton battery which alone would almost twice as much as a diesel truck, and its load capacity would be severely limited. Unless, of course, Musk can suspend the laws of physics.

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.17 at 4:06 pm

@#124 Reality1
“I have tried to raise the level of discourse here for the betterment of all readers…..”
+++++++

It must be painful for you.
Shouting out so much intelligent wisdom to the ignorant, braying rabble.
And then to have it mocked , or even worse….. ignored……..

Conrad Black! Is that you?
Tell you what, lets dispense with formalities, from now on…..you can call me Fartz

#134 Doug Rowat on 11.19.17 at 4:33 pm

#102 Capt. Serious on 11.19.17 at 10:31 am

Exxon Mobil is the eight highest weight in the S&P500, Chevron and ConocoPhillips are in the top 100, and BP is a huge weight in the FTSE100. You have exposure to oil and gas if you own indexes. Move along.

True. If you own an ETF or mutual fund in all likelihood you own the energy sector. It’s tough exposure to escape. Even if you’re selective with individual ‘ethical’ stocks, their future depends on the global economy, which often depends on the outlook for the oil & gas industry.

–Doug

#135 Lost...but not leased on 11.19.17 at 4:39 pm

More on EV’s

If EVs do make serious inroads …..we have the issue of lost tax base…aka Gov’ts tax petro fuels like GAS.

The flip side to “Going Green” has major downsides.

Examples:
Water Meters: aka pay what you use VS flat rate.
SJW light their hair on fire, while this is their right,but its not so simple. In Metro vancouver, regardless of water meters…there is a minimum overhead cost .

Many who initially volunteered for a meter and used water sparingly found they were charged MORE than metered usage.

Garbage? same issue…while recycling is a good idea, landfills still have a minimum cost base. ..aka ironically the more you recycle and divert from landfills..the more this deficit grows..who pays?

Thus, if EV’s begin to make inroads, this will reduce Gov’t revenues from petro fuels……. thus it is reasonable to assume the tax burden will be moved to your own personal electrical meter to make up the deficit.

#136 Lost...but not leased on 11.19.17 at 5:02 pm

More on(moron?) EV’s

Given Hi- Density in major cities, will be intriguing how Hi – Rises will accomodate say 10O+ EV’s…..morseo if Local Gov’t mandate plug -ins for EV’s ..thus major upgrades for the Grid.???(then who pays???

What about power outages ? SOL….

Or….everyone’s worst fears, that our bankrupt Gov’ts will fold like cheap tents and surrender public assets (like electrical generation) to the global oligarchs and we can look forward to quasi – ENRON 2.0 scams and huge jumps in Kilowatt hour rates.

#137 EV expert on 11.19.17 at 5:08 pm

Re to 128 Lost…but not leased.

Only a small amount of Lithium is needed to make an EV battery, and it can be recycled at the end of the batteries lifespan.

Also: how do EV’s deal with cold weather?…are they able to function ?

For a typical EV, the batteries have a heater, so that if you’re parked outside, and it’s -20C all day, the battery pack will heat itself automatically. The battery pack is well insulated, so only small amount of the total energy is used. So when you need to start the car, it always starts. You can drive away in seconds as the motor does not need to warm up. My EV even has a solar panel that keeps the 12V battery charged up. Most winters, the battery pack heater only turns on maybe once per month (as needed), as I park my car in an insulated garage at night.

A great example would be winter in 2014, as it was so cold that many gas cars simply would not start and people waited up to 48 hours to get a boost from CAA. Each day, I just walked up to my car after work and drove home, confident it would start easily 100% of the time.

You have less range in the winter because of the cold weather (same as gas cars), but by charging at night, you can start each day with nearly a full charge (I almost never charge it to 100% because I want to leave some room to store the energy from regenerative braking).

As for performance, the traction control and handling in the winter are excellent.

#138 LivinLarge on 11.19.17 at 5:16 pm

“Owning one stock is no sound strategy. — Garth”

While I do agree with you, existentially, Fearless Leader…and I don’t exactly keep my portfolio limited to just the two banks, I also own a couple of REITS.

In the general scheme of things, all your eggs in one basket is indeed a bad plan. I don’t even try to argue with that. That said, Canadian bank shares aren’t in the general scheme.

History is no guantee of the future too but for well over 100 years the banks have paid like clock work and still grown their capital value so, while no guarantee on the short term (like 08-12), Canadian banks have a special advantage, the Bank Act.

Every time the Bank Act has been amended to allow the banks to enter new income markets, they have and within a couple of years they have doninated those markets.

The Canadian banks operate like unofficial arms of the federal government, not like free market enterprises.

You yourself have commented here about the relative infallibility of our banks to continue to generate ever increasing quarterly profits.

So, holding one asset class isn’t a balanced portfolio but Canadian Banks aren’t one asset class. They are “retail banking class”, “Commercial credit class”, “mortgage lending class”, “wealth management class” “stock tracing class” etc. Hell, you might reasonably make the claim than Cdn Bank shares are effectively a diversified ETF unto themselves.

#139 Leichendiener on 11.19.17 at 6:10 pm

Water is still wet. The DVD to watch is ‘Pandora’s Promise’ from 2013. I notice from Amazon that it’s inflating in price. A carbon free future is pure snake oil. Don’t waste time arguing about ‘climate change’, bet against ‘renewables’ like wind and solar energy. You really have to put your brain into park to put faith in Climate Barbie.

#140 Ace Goodheart on 11.19.17 at 7:26 pm

RE: #137 EV expert on 11.19.17 at 5:08 pm

What EV do you have? We are thinking of getting one. We were looking firstly at the Tesla model 3 but due to production problems it might be a very long time before they are even sold in Canada. Right now we are seriously considering a Volkswagen E-Golf. We have thanks to the comments on this blog even located somewhere that we can test drive one. Apparently we can order one and we will likely get it in late 2018.

Which EV do you have?

Thanks

#141 Dmitry on 11.19.17 at 9:44 pm

#129 Stan Brooks

You can repeat as mantra “self driving cars” and “solar and wind energy” as much as you want, but electric power has to come from somewhere.
The question still stands – where all this electric power is going to come from here in Canada to power all these nice EVs?

#142 Rural Rick on 11.19.17 at 9:58 pm

#137 EV expert
How does cold weather reduce gas powered vehicles range? Jut asking.

#143 C7.R on 11.19.17 at 10:05 pm

#140 Ace Goodheart on 11.19.17 at 7:26 pm
RE: #137 EV expert on 11.19.17 at 5:08 pm

What EV do you have? We are thinking of getting one. We were looking firstly at the Tesla model 3 but due to production problems it might be a very long time before they are even sold in Canada. Right now we are seriously considering a Volkswagen E-Golf….

Ace, test drive a Bolt EV and let us know what you think. I am hearing good things from proud new owners. I test drove one, the “1-pedal” driving mode very engaging, a new way of driving.

#144 EV expert on 11.19.17 at 10:13 pm

Reply to #140 Ace Goodheart

My current EV is a 2011 Nissan LEAF. Back then it was either that or the 2011 Volt. I chose the LEAF because I didn’t want to do oil changes or have any gas engine to maintain.

The Tesla model S wasn’t available yet (the first ones arrived in late December 2012), and my thinking was by the time I replaced the LEAF, the newer EV’s would be much better.

I have reserved a Tesla model 3, and the two big reasons are that Tesla has the best charging infrastructure for road trips. Tesla is also the only one currently making EV’s with two motors for all wheel drive.

A Tesla can charge at any of the 10000+ level 2 Tesla destination chargers, plus the 1000’s of faster super chargers, plus nearly any of the other charging stations that all other types of EV’s share. However, I estimate that 95% of my charging would happen at home in my garage overnight.

The delays with the model 3 appear to be related to fully automating the production of batteries. I don’t think the delay will be long lasting, and I expect the first model 3’s to arrive in Canada in late 2018 (or before).

I have driven the eGolf and it’s a fine car. Lots of people who I know have tried it also like it.

#145 EV expert on 11.19.17 at 10:35 pm

Reply to #142 Rural Rick
How does cold weather reduce gas powered vehicles range? Jut asking.

Colder weather reduces the efficiency of gas engines, and more gas is used for idling and warming the car in cold weather.

https://www.fleetcarma.com/cold-weather-fuel-efficiency/

…As shown in the infographic we can see that the key take-away from comparisons like this is that while the factors that cause the range of a vehicle to shrink differ between electric and gas vehicles, when the costs are analyzed on a cost-per-mile basis the savings improve at lower temperatures.

The study from the link above is several years old. Newer EV’s, with active (liquid) thermal management for the battery pack (that keep the pack warm during cold weather), help to limit the range reduction in colder weather. Note that Tesla EV’s, and those from GM, Ford, BMW have that active thermal management (Nissans do not).

#146 Carbon Neutral C7.R on 11.19.17 at 10:43 pm

Doug Rowat
And if you feel guilty, buy a Prius plug-in.

No guilt here. We be carbon neutral. Our 4-door family car displaces 6.0L, is rear wheel drive, has a limited slip diff, and sounds like a Corvette. I grin ear to ear every time I start it and drive off. Yet my thumbs are green, e-low glass, hi-efficiency furnace, make my own compost, grow my own vegg, but alas, there is no replacement for displacement. Sorry Tesla, 0-60s in 1.9s in your new Roadster pretty cool, but 0-60s in 2.7s in the presence of the thunder of God straight out of a quad exhaust is more cool. Plus, the loopy idle of burly V8 on a gentle drive puts bady to sleep, -does Tesla have an app for that?

Be balanced. In Life. In your home. In your portfolio.

#147 SmarterSquirrel on 11.20.17 at 11:56 am

Given where the world is going in the future with some countries banning the sale of gas internal combustion engine (ICE) cars by as early as 2025 and others by 2040, I don’t think oil is the right investment. With Bloomberg predicting electric vehicle sales will surpass ICE car sales by about 2038, isn’t lithium a better long term investment than oil and gas? I’ve done a high level assessment of some of the lithium miners here…

http://smartersquirrel.com/invest/where-s-the-lithium-for-that-electric-car-going-to-come-from

#148 The other Doug, in London on 11.20.17 at 12:17 pm

Further to my comment #26 above, I think I’ll hold on to those pipeline company shares I own, including those Enbridge shares I scooped up at recently at early Black Friday sales. I was worried about the future of oil companies, as well as pipeline companies last week when I filled up my car at the Pioneer Petrol station at the corner of Huron Street and Clarke Road here in the Forest City.

#149 Overheardyou on 11.20.17 at 3:37 pm

#49 Gravy Train on 11.18.17 at 7:53 pm
#22 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.18.17 at 5:28 pm
“I like the idea of electric cars but electricity doesn’t just happen. Where is all the electricity going to come from?”

Two words: solar panels!

“The average electric cost per kWh in the US is 12 cents (first tier) and if you go by an estimated average of 15,000 miles driven per year, that’ll bring you to $540 additional electric costs annually.

“The average cost of a gallon of gas in the US is $2.35 and if you again go with an average of 15,000 miles driven per year, your total annual gas costs would be $1,400.”
https://www.thesolarco.com/charge-your-electric-car-with-solar-panels/

—–

Solar power has varying production rates due to changing seasons and weather, on a cloudy day you can get as little at 30% charge vs 90% charge on a sunny day. Being in Canada, the charge amount affects us greater than say in the US Midwest. Which means you’ll need a means of storing extra energy to charge your car or power your home. That also means you’ll need to pay for the infrastructure to store energy as well as maintenance. I think the future will require a multitude of renewable energy to be viable.

#150 Ace Goodheart on 11.20.17 at 4:19 pm

RE: #147 SmarterSquirrel on 11.20.17 at 11:56 am
Given where the world is going in the future with some countries banning the sale of gas internal combustion engine (ICE) cars by as early as 2025 and others by 2040, I don’t think oil is the right investment. With Bloomberg predicting electric vehicle sales will surpass ICE car sales by about 2038, isn’t lithium a better long term investment than oil and gas? I’ve done a high level assessment of some of the lithium miners here…”

You might also take a look at Hydrogen battery technology.

Limitations right now are storage capacity (hard to store hydrogen as a gas, and even harder as a liquid) and ease of mining (hydrogen, though one of the most plentiful elements in the universe, unfortunately is mixed with other stuff on our planet and is expensive to separate).

Upside is a hydrogen battery can be recharged in minutes rather than hours, there is no need for an external power supply to do the charging, and the by-product of charging is distilled water which can actually be consumed as a beverage.

The technology is loopy and space age. Amazon is apparently now running their forklifts off of it in their storage facilities and just bought a bunch of the stock of the company that provides it (ticker = PLUG).

Elon Musk apparently hates it (but he would, he has billions into Lithium).

All it takes is someone to simplify the mining process and perfect the storage, and you have this cool battery technology that doesn’t require a plug in and can be recharged almost instantly.