Careful

I admit it. She’s winsome. Eye candy. Made for YouTube. The woman fits right in with the other babes and hulks that Toronto’s hip Stomp Realty likes to employ as agents. But April Brockman is more than just a talented, vid-friendly presenter. She’s a one-woman marketing frenzy.

Rising from her roots in Wasaga Beach, she did four years working as a credit union assistant, then exploded onto the hormone-drenched set of The Bachelor Canada in 2015 where she stole Hunky Tim’s heart and accepted his rock. (Sadly the affair ended six months later. Tim Warmels made the big announcement on his blog. But they’ll forever be besties. All good.)

Anyway, April’s a realtor. As stated, she’s a great promoter. Her client videos are professionally done, simple and powerful, direct and compelling. If you were a house-horny Mill looking for a credible condo chick (as she calls herself) to make stuff happen, this is your woman. Plus you’d get to hang with her during showings. Closer than Tim is these days.

April Brockman is reaching a lot of people. Even more than this pathetic blog, I imagine. Big Facebook following. Twitter feed. Eight thousand Instagram followers. Sustained media coverage. Snappy web site. It’s how Donald Trump came to be president of the United States, by the way. Social media rules.

This brings us to April’s message on B20, the universal mortgage stress test the evil bank regulator is about to foist on all the moisters desperate to get into real estate ownership at inflated prices, and crushing personal debt. She is saying what so many others are telling buyers – if they delay making a purchase in 2017, they could be pooched in 2018.

Here it is. Enjoy.

The key message: “That means, if you purchase this year, you’ll have $147,000 more than if you purchase in 2018.”

This is YouTube logic. You can qualify to buy a $707,000 condo today based on the prevailing 5-year mortgage rate if you earn $100,000 per year and have $140,000 to put down (thanks, Mom). But if you wait for the stress test, the same income and down payment will get you a place worth only $560,000. This is obviously sad, and wrong.  So, buy now. How hard is that to understand? It means, “if you purchase this year, you’ll have $147,000 more than if you purchase in 2018.”

Of course, April fails to mention that in the first scenario (buy now) the mortgage would be $567,000, and in the second (buy in ’18) the debt would fall to $420,000. Payments would be reduced by a sharp $700 per month. But there’s a bigger issue at play which also gets no airtime from the Stomp Lady – valuations. If credit is so reduced for all buyers that the unit they can purchase must be 21% cheaper after B20 lands, then why won’t real estate prices follow? Where are April’s buyers supposed to come up with the extra $147,000 that is about to be so cruelly stolen from them? If they don’t have it, how can they give it to the greedy sellers? So in order to find a buyer, won’t vendors ask for less? And what if you buy a $707,000 place from this woman in late 2017 only to watch it turn into a $560,000 condo in a year or two? Goodbye $147,000, and you have a mortgage worth more than the real estate.

Make no mistake. Prices are where they are (stupid) because interest rates were pushed lower and credit flowed like champagne during a Bachelor tryst. When rates rise and credit shrinks, it’s over.

We still love ya, April, but maybe Tim was right.

166 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 11.16.17 at 5:56 pm

First cash post tonight.

#2 dudenotbombs on 11.16.17 at 5:56 pm

First?

#3 Johnny D on 11.16.17 at 5:58 pm

Noticed realtors in MLS listings are “warning” about the new stress test too.

Also, Keystone pipeline sprung a leak. As a society we have to stand up to people sabotaging energy infrastructure. The damage the perps have done to the environment is terrible.

#4 Looney Baloney on 11.16.17 at 6:01 pm

Mr. G, quit oppressing the poor lady with your logic.

#5 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.16.17 at 6:01 pm

THE 450% MORTGAGE

Which Canadian cities have the biggest housing bubbles? There are valuable metrics that can be used to determine that. Perhaps one of the most valuable is the 450% mortgage metric.

This metric represents the percentage of new mortgages in each city that were used to purchase properties with a loan-to-income ratio of at least 450%. It may sound technical, but it’s actually rather easy to understand.

450% mortgages are at the most extreme end of the spectrum in terms of danger and risk. Buyers who take out these extreme mortgages do so by stretching their monthly income to the absolute maximum (and beyond in some cases).

These mortgages are among the most likely to be defaulted on since the mortgage holders leave themselves with no room for error. Unplanned increases in monthly expenses (for example, higher rates, etc.) or an unexpected drop in monthly income (a lost job, fewer hours available at work, illness, etc.) are the kinds of things that families with these extreme mortgages cannot withstand financially.

Rising house prices mask the inevitable destructive consequences of taking on mortgages this extreme. Such has been the case in Canada in recent years. It’s when prices are falling that families with these mortgages experience major problems.

IN A LEAGUE OF THEIR OWN

Clearly Canada’s housing bubble was already big enough before 2013.

* The Economist: “Canada’s Housing Market (in 2011) More Overvalued Than U.S. At Its Peak.”

* By 2012, Canadian housing price levels (first chart) and debt levels (third chart) screamed bubble.

* Massive gains in house prices in several Canadian cities (including Victoria) from 2000 to 2013 dwarfed gains in incomes over the same period.

Then the off the charts use of 450% mortgage from 2013 to 2015 helped make things even worse, especially in Victoria, Vancouver and Toronto. These three cities had the highest percentage of 450% mortgages over this period of time (first chart).

And Victoria was the only market above 30% each year from 2013 through 2015.

With the help of these dangerous loans, house prices in Victoria have more than tripled since 2000 while gains in incomes have barely moved in comparison. Indeed Victoria’s bubble is massive.

LIAR LOANS ARE POPULAR WITH 450% MORTGAGES

It’s no secret that speculation (mostly from locals) has been the driving force behind Victoria’s abnormal property appreciation in recent years.

It’s also no secret that many of these local speculators have used highly leveraged financing to mortgage these properties. And extreme financing often involves 450% mortgages and liar loans.

SPECULATING IS HIGHLY-LEVERAGED GAMBLING

It’s been studied and shown that, in a housing bubble, those who borrowed against their properties to mortgage an additional property put themselves in the group most likely to default as the inevitable bust played out.

DESTRUCTIVE DEBT

Massive debt is always a part of the housing boom-bust cycle. Housing bubbles don’t go away until the abnormally high levels of debt return to “normal”, safe levels.

This is a big part of the reason that no housing boom ends without a brutally destructive bust.

#6 lumpia on 11.16.17 at 6:02 pm

April if you are reading this. Please reply. We are waiting. Meow.

#7 Zapstrap on 11.16.17 at 6:10 pm

I want to hear Tim’s side.

#8 Tim on 11.16.17 at 6:13 pm

She’s absolutely right, if you purchase this year you’ll have $147,000 more. She neglects to point out that it’s $147,000 more debt, but more is better amiright?

#9 PupPatrol on 11.16.17 at 6:17 pm

My main concerns going into 2018 re: home prices in big bubble cities like Vancouver/ lower mainland is that people will find loopholes, be it a longer amortization or alt lenders like credit unions. Will buyers extreme desire for more debt continue to fuel this bubble?

#10 April's got it right! on 11.16.17 at 6:18 pm

She is saying that the place buyers could get into now is worth 707k vs. 560k when B20 hits the markets. Prices will be sticky on the way down.

To expect price reductions only because leveraged buyers are not able to qualify as they did before, is pure speculation.

Someone purchased a 500 yr old painting for 450 million Dollars today. There’s plenty money out there and obviously not many things left to buy.

It’s almost as if the big crash is just around the corner. The day that cash will be worthless and won’t have any buying power.

Da Vinci’s painting will be worth something and so will Toronto’s condos.

Condos will cost as much as pre B20 but fewer locals can buy them with leverage.

I’m giving up on all crash or soft landing predictions. The world is up for sale and there enough “highest” bidders who are loaded with more cash than they know how or where to invest, hide or convert.

Load up on small increments of gold if you can’t afford RE or paintings. The coming reset will be of epic proportions.

#11 Doubters on 11.16.17 at 6:19 pm

For all you doubters. Here is an article where even a Remax agent in BC said that international money is a problem!

Time to wake up and be honest! Local incomes don’t matter in Toronto and Vancouver. These cities are now commodities to be traded like your ETFs.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/new-bc-real-estate-rules-1.4404447

#12 Linda on 11.16.17 at 6:21 pm

Right on Garth! When is a ‘bargain’ not a ‘bargain’? When the price of what you purchase ‘on sale’ turns out to be more than what it was worth in the first place.

One headline read today said ‘1 in 2’ Canadians are ‘worried’ about money. Or more specifically, their ability to pay what they already owe. Spending $147,000 more ‘now’ to avoid ‘missing out’ isn’t a bargain. It is more like a self inflicted financial mugging.

#13 Catalyst on 11.16.17 at 6:24 pm

If prices are flat or better, she’s not wrong. She’s only wrong if prices are headed down which is anyone’s guess.

#14 Roger Gladwell on 11.16.17 at 6:27 pm

Aprils fools

#15 akashic record on 11.16.17 at 6:27 pm

Sorry Garth, I lost you at the sixth paragraph…

Would you try again in a video? Make it short, look sharp and maybe bring Bandit or get some video background intern chicks. Millennials.

Alternatively you can push the new Report FakeNews YouTube button to wake up Google AI to kill this peace before IT (SHE/HE?) is rushing back to find the cure for cancer.

Whichever works for you.

#16 dakkie on 11.16.17 at 6:28 pm

Here’s What Implies an Even Bigger Global “Credit Crisis” Than 2007-2009

http://investmentwatchblog.com/heres-what-implies-an-even-bigger-global-credit-crisis-than-2007-2009/

#17 TS on 11.16.17 at 6:30 pm

Are Canadians really buying $700,000 houses with $100,000 salaries?

That’s a joke right?

You can’t qualify for a $700,000 mortgage with $100,000 in income?

Can you?

#18 gfd on 11.16.17 at 6:32 pm

If Garth is right (no doubts) April soon be shooting movies to keep her Audi lease in place.

#19 maka on 11.16.17 at 6:33 pm

Correction started this April. Expect to see a crash by next April.

#20 wallflower on 11.16.17 at 6:44 pm

Yep, overpaid RE agents cannot spell and cannot do math.

RESPONDING TO A FEW MORE FROM YESTERDAY
#63 Nonplused on 11.15.17 at 7:38 pm
“when my spawn was going through organized youth sports, all the payments were cash to coaches and referees. Some of these guys were hauling it down every year… cash cash cash.”
Most youth sports coaches are volunteers and do not get paid. Did it myself many years and the most I ever got was a $50 gift card to the Keg. And no I didn’t claim it.
==========
WRONG. Many are paid a lot. I calculated one guy hauling down ~$60K cash per year. Many of these guys don’t have “jobs” all they do is train and coach year round.
15 kids for three months training at $500 per head (repeat three more times for the year) 2 teams at $1000 per month per team

++++++++++
#65 Speeding up the Crash on 11.15.17 at 7:39 pm

– report to the CRAall of the rental income you paid to past landlords;
==========
IMPOSSIBLE. My Markham landlord lived in Hong Kong. Post dated cheques were cashed in Hong Kong. $2500 per month. Two years.

++++++++++
FINALLY, some were asking…

National Leads Centre
• write Business Intelligence and Quality Assurance Division, 200 Town Centre Court, Scarborough ON M1P 4Y3;
• submit your lead online at cra.gc.ca/leads;
• call 1 866 809 6841, from 8:15 a.m. to 4:45 p.m., Eastern time; or
• send a fax to 1 888 724 4829.

#21 HanMan3000 on 11.16.17 at 6:45 pm

Some sales people are just merely sales people, and others are trusted advisors. It’s important for people to figure out who’s who before they take someone’s advice.

#22 dm in c on 11.16.17 at 6:47 pm

You know you can buy followers for twitter, instagram et al… those follower numbers mean nothing.

#23 PastThePeak on 11.16.17 at 6:47 pm

Well, I do agree with the crowd that doesn’t believe the RE meltdown is coming in the near term (e.g. 2018 at least) timeframe. There will be a bound up in volumes and prices year end, then a period of maybe down or sideways, followed by more “up”.

The reason is that the economy may be slowing in Canada, but employment rates are still quite good, US and global economies are growing, etc. That growth might be due to ever more over leveraged consumers, but the can can still be kicked down the road a bit.

There isn’t yet a trigger to bring the house of cards down. It will come – it always does. Usually out of left field for most people (some emerging market shit, Tesla goes belly up, Italian bank default…who knows). Lots of talk on how good things look right now – jobless good, a little wage growth, low inflation, low volatility in the equity markets, new highs all the time. Kinda reminds me of 2006, or 1999…

#24 BobC on 11.16.17 at 6:51 pm

It took me 4 houses to learn this.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/16/homeownership-doesnt-build-wealth-study-finds.html

#25 Rooster on 11.16.17 at 6:56 pm

I had a quick peek at the Stomp website, and Garth’s right, not a dog in the pack. Before I could get up from my desk I had to go see what Kathleen Wynne was on about. She’s saving the day yet again. It may be too little, too late, but at least the OSAP ads on TV won’t seem like such a completely moronic total waste of taxpayers money. I heard the Docs advertising their awesomeness again on the radio. They must be buttering up their sigmoidoscopes for the next round of fee negotiations. It’s the only place left that the CRA hasn’t tapped already.

#26 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 11.16.17 at 6:56 pm

Australia’s corporate watchdog to investigate interest-only home loans, massively favoured by speculative property investors, driving rapid gains in housing prices in recent years.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/australias-corporate-watchdog-to-investigate-interest-only-home-loans

IO loans have gained considerable momentum and now account for around 40 per cent of new mortgages and about half the total mortgages held by the big banks.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-29/interest-only-loans/8662966

#27 Senta on 11.16.17 at 6:56 pm

Try to give her the benefit of the doubt:
Maybe she is trying to get mortgages pre-approved so that after the market crashes after Jan 1, her buyers can swoop in like vultures and feed on the carcass with no competitions.

#28 OttawaMike on 11.16.17 at 6:58 pm

What is that folded arm body language telling us from most of the Stompees promo shots?

Lots of pretty realtors there but the head realtress Mary Erica Smith really seems to have the sexy librarian thing going on.

#29 young & foolish on 11.16.17 at 7:03 pm

Sooooooo Hot though !

#30 MSM-Free Zone on 11.16.17 at 7:03 pm

Sounds like Tim lived the lyrics straight out of a Meat Loaf song (Google it, Millennials):

“..So now I’m praying for the end of time
To hurry up and arrive
‘Cause if I gotta spend another minute with you
I don’t think that I can really survive…”

Based upon the integrity displayed in April’s video, it’s not hard to see why. Well done, Tim. It’s only six months of your life you’ll never get back. Others have paid more dearly.

As GT has repeatedly said here, there’s one thing you’ll never be able to buy back and that’s time.

#31 dontcallmeshirley on 11.16.17 at 7:05 pm

Stress test can beaten by taking longer amortizations and / or stating future rental income on mortgage application.

Plenty of lenders will accept this. See a mortgage broker.

#32 Eyes wide shut on 11.16.17 at 7:06 pm

Never a bad time to buy eh, April? Oh, these spin doctors!

#33 steph on 11.16.17 at 7:07 pm

Ain’t marketing great! Screw Ethos and Logos and praise Pathos, Alleluia

#34 Andrew Woburn on 11.16.17 at 7:12 pm

Deficit fighting, Saudi style.

“The Saudi government is in discussions with detained royals and businessmen to hand over huge portions of their wealth as a part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s corruption probe, per the FT. The detained officials would hand over up to 70% of their assets — perhaps totaling $300 billion — to the government in exchange for their release. The money would be put toward Saudi Arabia’s mounting national deficit.”

https://www.axios.com/saudi-government-demanding-billions-from-detained-officials-2510077234.html

#35 I thinks I know something on 11.16.17 at 7:15 pm

“If credit is so reduced for all buyers that the unit they can purchase must be 21% cheaper after B20 lands, then why won’t real estate prices follow?” – Garth

—————————————————-

Because this is the GTA. Doomers have been bigly wrong about a correction the last 9 years and they will continue to be wrong. Ten years from now, I bet the average SFH in the GTA will be 2 million.

#36 Dan.t on 11.16.17 at 7:15 pm

The majority of Canadians it seems are financial morons… just listen to what the nice looking realtor tells you. Buy, Get rich. Easy. Its only money and debt…like seriously, who cares.

And for the record, 700k? You know what you get in other parts of the world for that money? Oh, right, Canadians don’t! That is why they are so eager to jump into a 700k particle board shoddy construction bungalow on the outskirts of town…only a 25 min drive to buy milk, sweet.

Now all you need to do is buy pot stocks! Get rich, easy. World of hurt coming for the noob investors… but whatever the herd is doing, do it, it’s the Canadian way.

#37 TortyPapa on 11.16.17 at 7:19 pm

Good. Let the gullible buy now. Some realtors really piss me off.

#38 I thinks I know something on 11.16.17 at 7:19 pm

“We still love ya, April, but maybe Tim was right.” – Garth

——————————————————

I don’t. At all. She strikes me as being a twit.

#39 akashic record on 11.16.17 at 7:27 pm

The real question tonight: Will BTC hit USD 8000 when the Eastern hemisphere comes online to realize what happened while they were asleep?

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.17 at 7:28 pm

wow!
I dont know, maybe its just me
Stomp Realty seems so……….. superficial.
Like a Modeling agency with “cred’.

One wonders how they handle all their “valued clients” when the markets turn to $h!t and the Mortgage “losers” are screaming for blood………..

#41 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.16.17 at 7:30 pm

Re “evaders”, not everyone who uses PayPal is a tax cheat, on the contrary, most legitimate online businesses keep proper books and pay their taxes. However, I’m pretty sure that aggregate PayPal transactions in the several hundred K’s will be sure to unfairly trigger audits…

I thought one had to be suspected of a crime before the government had the right to search – secton 8 of the charter if I’m not mistaken. But then again, the reasonable expectation of privacy and protections against unreasonable search and seizure went out the window with bill C51.

The government has no right to access everyone’s private information without just cause. Trawling for extra revenue is not just cause. That’s my objection.

#42 Adrian on 11.16.17 at 7:47 pm

#23 PastThePeak on 11.16.17 at 6:47 pm

There isn’t yet a trigger to bring the house of cards down.

***

There doesn’t need to be a trigger. It’s built into the dynamics of the market.

When 80+% of the money used to purchase real estate is borrowed rather than saved, then the demand curve is determined primarily by NEW debt created that year (i.e. “credit” in Steve Keen’s parlance). In this situation, changes in prices are determined by the change in credit (i.e. the acceleration of debt). But nothing can accelerate forever…

As the upper serviceable limit on debt is approached, credit slows down (i.e. debt decelerates), which means prices fall. Asset markets pretty well always fall first, which reduces borrowing and causes unemployment to rise. This cause default rates to rise, as well. Figure 15 of the following article is a stylized representation of what I’m talking about & Figure 16 is the empirical data from the USA:

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/06/steve-keen-on-the-secret-source-of-eternal-australian-growth/

#43 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.16.17 at 7:51 pm

B20 will not matter to foreign and domestic specuvestors with cash. I don’t see big price changes happening.

#44 For those about to flop... on 11.16.17 at 7:53 pm

Recent Sale Report.

This one sold 13 days ago

592 w 17th ave Vancouver.

Ask 2.35

Sold 2.28

Tax assessment 2.42

Near Cambie got them 2.2,on Cambie probably could have got twice that with all the land assembly for condos…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/592-w-17th-avenue

http://www.westsiderealty.ca/Properties.php/Details/1189

#45 acdel on 11.16.17 at 7:58 pm

That’s why we love ya Garth, good post!

#46 Nonplused on 11.16.17 at 8:01 pm

I wonder how April looks after running her video through the new MakeApp program (another Russian aggression this time to digitally render what people would look like without makeup. How dare they!)

In any case I find her logic equally unattractive without its makeup. How on earth did we come to a point where people think it’s in their best interest to borrow as much as they can? In my grandfather’s day the idea was to get out of debt as fast as you can, because otherwise the banker could put you one the street.

What if you qualify at $100,000 a year income but next year you lose your job and the new job only pays $80,000? What if you have to refinance at 3% higher in 5 years? These are questions my grandfather probably thought about which is why he didn’t speculate in real-estate. He bought one modest house to live in and his greatest goal was to have it paid off by the time he retired.

Now, by the time my grandmother died many years later, the house sold for many times what my grandfather paid for it, in unadjusted dollars, a windfall for my dad and aunts and uncles. But inflation adjusted I am not sure, it was probably only a double. Still good money, but not a wild return by any means.

The best return you get from owning a house is that one day you don’t have to make rent or mortgage payments. That can be an important part or retirement planning. But right now with house prices where they are the return isn’t great. It only still works because returns suck all up and down the board, you can’t do much better. But it sucks a lot more if you overpay for the house and are now saddled with debt.

Ever since the establishment of the Fed in 1913 central banks have done a remarkable job of making sure asset prices (and the price of everything else) gradually rise. 30 years from now house prices will probably be twice what they are now. I have no doubt about that. But the Fed has never saved a bubble. How many times do we have to go through it? Gold in the 80’s, teck stocks in the 2000’s, oil, Nortel, Bre-X, the list goes on and on. Housing will not be different, and buying now so you can pay more will only mean you have given more of your life away to paying off that debt. Debt, by the way, over which you have no control of the interest rate.

I’m starting to see that there is something morally superior to the US 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Why should the bank be able to reset the loan after 5 years? That’s not what you signed up for. Only it is. It is exactly what you signed up for.

So, one of the things I like to do if I am interested in a certain decision, be it by government, a trader, a person, in anything really it just has to grab my attention, is to ask what might have led to that decision. With regards to these rule changes for mortgages, why is the government suddenly concerned that the old rules weren’t working? What do they and their very smart “think-tanks” see coming? Yes, governments do try and forecast the future, and they pay people millions in their armies of analysts to do so. Just look at the EIA. They don’t always publish the real outlook, if ever. Just look at this chart, which hasn’t been updated since 2007, just before the energy crisis and collapse of 2008.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_ertwg_xwpn_nus_dfa.htm

What it shows is a remarkable increase in drilling costs for oil and gas from 2000 through 2007, almost like a Vancouver house price and then no more data. Do you think they don’t have the data? They do, and in the fact that they won’t publish it anymore you can draw a lot of conclusions.

One of the conclusions you can draw from that drilling cost chart and the abrupt end of the data is that “peak oil” was real, it already happened, and now we are drilling the crappy shale because we have already built the infrastructure to consume oil and must have it. But it doesn’t make sense to build much more in the way of oil consuming infrastructure, it isn’t economic.

So that was a diversion. What of the changes to the mortgage regulations? Why are they doing these changes if everything was working good before? What do they see coming? Well, I’ll give you a hint. Higher interest rates. At least 2% higher but probably more than that. Like the EIA, they aren’t showing you all the data, but what they are showing is enough to give you an idea what the projection is.

#47 tccontrarian on 11.16.17 at 8:02 pm

You lost me, momentarily, at:
“…where she stole Hunky Tim’s heart and accepted his rock.”

My eyes didn’t see ‘rock’, at first. I thought you had crossed the line, Garth!

And she’s not that ‘hot’, as far as I’m concerned. My wife is wayyyy hotter!

TCC

#48 Entrepreneur on 11.16.17 at 8:04 pm

April wants her clients to gamble on the housing market. And by using debt/credit through the Canadian financial institutions. She is using very general information to be so authoritative for a huge transaction. Unless she knows more than she is willing to divulge. She should be questioned in more detail.

#49 AGuyInVancouver on 11.16.17 at 8:07 pm

#15 akashic record on 11.16.17 at 6:27 pm
Sorry Garth, I lost you at the sixth paragraph…

Would you try again in a video? Make it short, look sharp and maybe bring Bandit or get some video background intern chicks. Millennials…
_ _ _
I believe your picturing Garth is something like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyNa-ReeZc8&list=RDlyNa-ReeZc8&t=8

#50 Newcomer on 11.16.17 at 8:12 pm

#11 Doubters on 11.16.17 at 6:19 pm
For all you doubters. Here is an article where even a Remax agent in BC said that international money is a problem!
————–
So you are telling me that a guy whose job is selling houses says that prices are increasing, not because local buyers are stupid, but because the whole world wants what he is selling. I guess it must be true.

#51 paul on 11.16.17 at 8:17 pm

C.I.B.C is already factoring for the change and full implementation December 15 , 2017 !

#52 millmech on 11.16.17 at 8:19 pm

One of our electricians gave notice today, heading back east got a job in a small town with the city making what he was making at our plant but with better benefits.
Sold his townhouse and bought a 3bdrm 1bth house on two lots for $39,000.paid cash, the people paying $707,000 for a dog kennel sized investment are hilarious.
Hey all the people buying these units can all get together and have a “kennel” party!
Woof! Woof!

#53 Freebird on 11.16.17 at 8:26 pm

In Japan they simply tear down and rebuild every 30 yrs. One way to look at renewal I guess. I’m sure April’s telegenic looks would sell there. How could you not believe a face and voice like that? Oh, that’s the point.

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/16/japan-reusable-housing-revolution

#54 islander on 11.16.17 at 8:29 pm

#38 Tim
“She’s absolutely right, if you purchase this year you’ll have $147,000 more. She neglects to point out that it’s $147,000 more debt, but more is better amiright?”

Gotta love it – yes Tim,$147,000 more! (more bragging rights, if nothing else!)

#55 acdel on 11.16.17 at 8:30 pm

#49 AGuyInVancouver

Now, if Palmer had the beard and Bandit was the back up dancer you might be on to something.. :)

#56 Smoking Man on 11.16.17 at 8:34 pm

To paraphrase LaughingCon

Shysters!

#57 Dolce Vita on 11.16.17 at 8:35 pm

#35 I thinks I know something

7.2% Compounded Annual Growth Rate is your bet to get from $998,000 to $2 million.

Of course, that does not take into account all the expenses of a SFH in 416 Land and the costs to sell it to monetize your $2 million.

Thus, you CAGR will be < 7.2%.

#58 akashic record on 11.16.17 at 8:42 pm

#39 akashic record on 11.16.17 at 7:27 pm

The real question tonight: Will BTC hit USD 8000 when the Eastern hemisphere comes online to realize what happened while they were asleep?

That didn’t take long. It was quite a safe bet. Straight oughta Smoking Man’s The Bokk of Herds.

BTC USD 8000.00

#59 Smoking Man on 11.16.17 at 8:45 pm

Garth you saw my Resume when I applied for the intern job at Turner investments. The part about being a rivet bucker early on. Well they called me today.

I have a indexed to inflation Defined pention. Their mailing the details. Talk about an early Xmas.

Let’s see I was making like 14 bucks an hour back then
So I don’t expect it to be much. 10 years at that rate. Who knows 200 a month.

If I have the option to cash it out. It’s coming to Turner investments.

I’m going easy on unions going forward. I quit the gig just shy of 10 years Maybe OT was at play here. No idea how I qualified.

I’m thrilled all the same.

CAW local 112 you rock.

#60 Fake News Again on 11.16.17 at 8:46 pm

I wanted to leave a comment but feared being charged with sexual harassment…..or get deleted…..or both.

#61 Steph on 11.16.17 at 8:53 pm

DELETED

#62 Dmitry on 11.16.17 at 8:53 pm

#34 Andrew Woburn

Is US senate/president/congress sending warplanes to bomb the country to overturn the dictator and setup real democracy? Nah, saudis are friends, just like Saddam was until he was not.

#63 Dolce Vita on 11.16.17 at 8:57 pm

#23 PastThePeak

High unemployment and a RE crash will come within the year and how do I know?

If you and the crowd say probably not in 2018, thus later, then that’s when it will not happen.

It always happens, when the crowd least expects it despite all their financial arguements, copious web links to articles supporting them etc.

Very high RE killing unemployment spikes, are rapid and always come when people least expect them and have been unpredictable.

Again and as I have posted before, set chart to MAX and compare RE crashes to high unemployment spikes, 100% correlation, well, plus some time for pogey, savings and severance to run out:

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate#

That’s what it takes and always has taken to crash RE and put the fear of God into people’s hearts (or the Big Electron for the nonbelievers).

Every home buying generation has had one except the Millennials…their turn now.

And, if they follow April’s advice, the pain and the lesson they learn will be just that much greater.

#64 april on 11.16.17 at 8:58 pm

Too many gullible people are taken in by these phony sales people. I was myself at one time – youth can be excused for it’s blindness but older people??? April and her ilk are only interested in their commission. When I hear people, young and old, saying “O but she/he was so nice”, I want to gag.

#65 Doubters on 11.16.17 at 9:03 pm

@50 Newcomer

What don’t you understand about my comment (#16)?

He is not promoting real estate. He is pointing out that there is indeed a problem with international (foreign) money. I found it refreshing to read that from a realtor.

It was I who inferred that Toronto/Van are just commodities. Cities disconnected from local incomes. This will continue (my opinion, not the realtors) so long as our homes are traded internationally as stores of wealth. That realtor was not promoting his product. Please learn to decode the subtleties of written speech as I hate having to explain myself here. I’m too important and too busy for this.

Man oh man, people really can’t read the subtleties of written communication…

#66 Dolce Vita on 11.16.17 at 9:11 pm

#43 FOUR FINGERS WATSON

Ya it will.

Even if the mythical foreigners and speculators number the ridiculous estimate of 25% of homebuyers, then 75% are local yokels.

Thus, the local yokels will determine the market price by virtue of their numbers.

And when they do, as in rates go up & prices go down artificially due to B20, the foreigners and speculators will be somewhat reluctant to invest in an asset losing value by the day.

If that happens, and give credit to foreigners and speculators, they will sell off quickly to monetize their gains – call them Early Adopters, ahead of the curve in getting out before the curve figures it out.

#67 For those about to flop... on 11.16.17 at 9:12 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Delta.

These guys were on one side of the line and after taking 190k off yesterday they are now on the other side.

The dark side.

On the hook for 1.32 now asking 1.29 ,not because they are in trouble just because all the cool kids in Vancouver are now listing below what they bought it for to get their fair share of attention.

Originally chasing 1.55 way back in August that is just a pipe dream now.

There are cheaper houses in Delta ,but it is still relatively affordable by Greater Vancouver standards.

Guys out that way insist that there is nothing wrong.

I don’t trust ’em…

899 50b Street, Delta paid 1.32 ass1.31 now asking 1.29

Aug 30:$1,550,000
Oct 25: $1,490,000
Change: – 60000.00 -4%

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/899-50b-street

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1VlBMUQ==

#68 cousincaitlyn on 11.16.17 at 9:12 pm

Garth:

You need to get a new schtick to attract more viewers to your site. What about putting on a wig and mini-skirt every Friday….kind a play on TGIF and dress down Fridays….you could be a superstar, I’m tellin ya’

#69 akashic record on 11.16.17 at 9:20 pm

The energy of your money is a sphere of certainty and stability around you.

The energy of gifting your money to people you love or to total strangers is the ecstasy of happiness and joy.

Keeping the two in balance is like playing the drums and cymbals in perfect rhythm for a kirtan to the Creator.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryDkPJFD6oo

Or the dance of the Spirit Bear for the Great Mystery.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynCh3_2skEw

#70 I thinks I know something on 11.16.17 at 9:24 pm

#57 Dolce Vita on 11.16.17 at 8:35 pm

Good points. My predicted two million average price in ten years requires a high rate of return and there are major expenses with maintaining a GTA home and there are also big costs to be incurred with monetizing the value because of the TREB monopoly. However, my point is, that there is no point in waiting to buy a GTA house. If you want a house just buy it. Waiting for the last nine years has been a fool’s game. I think it will continue to be so.

#71 Smoking Man on 11.16.17 at 9:32 pm

The other day when some sobar bastard said you write way better sobar. This alien disagrees . Just an opinion.

1/2 bottle of Jack. This is what the right thumb came up with.

A pome.

Carry on,
I carry my opinion, because I carry my voting card,
I carry my religion, because with it I no longer have to carry my opinion,
I carry my wallet, because it gives me choices,
I carry a work load to fill my wallet, because I don’t have choices at all.
I carry laughter, because it carries bliss,
I carry emptiness, because I am full of shit,
I carry love in my heart, because it can’t carry me,
I carry my self most times inappropriately,
I carry nothing, so I don’t have to carry the world on my shoulders,
However by carrying nothing , this world feels so much colder…
keep calm and carry on my friends,

#72 acdel on 11.16.17 at 9:55 pm

#68 cousincaitlyn

Dam, that was funny! Could you imagine?

Um, no offense to those who might me offended; just humor between those of us that get it!

#73 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.16.17 at 9:58 pm

#66 Dolce Vita on 11.16.17 at 9:11 pm
#43 FOUR FINGERS WATSON

Ya it will.

Even if the mythical foreigners and speculators number the ridiculous estimate of 25% of homebuyers, then 75% are local yokels.

Thus, the local yokels will determine the market price by virtue of their numbers.

And when they do, as in rates go up & prices go down artificially due to B20, the foreigners and speculators will be somewhat reluctant to invest in an asset losing value by the day.

If that happens, and give credit to foreigners and speculators, they will sell off quickly to monetize their gains – call them Early Adopters, ahead of the curve in getting out before the curve figures it out.
……………………………………….

What you say is 100% reasonable and logical.However, the market has been unreasonable and illogical for a decade or so. I don’t think that minor tweaks like B20 will change much until foreign investment dries up and takes pressure off domestic buyers to pay ridiculous prices.

#74 Smoking Man on 11.16.17 at 10:02 pm

My last poem was written by my right thump. My left one was pissed and posted it on the big screen.

Can’t do it, that thumb is bad. Really bad.

Locking for a Sharpe knife to cut it off.

Don’t want to be anywhere near that thing.

#75 akashic record on 11.16.17 at 10:04 pm

Took a bite from the forbidden fruit.

Sobar is no longer an option in this life time.

Will I ever remember?

#76 acdel on 11.16.17 at 10:11 pm

O.M.G.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tlp2MZ7gtpM

Bandit will enjoy this video! Smokie will like it too!

#77 Newcomer on 11.16.17 at 10:18 pm

#65 Doubters on 11.16.17 at 9:03 pm
…….

He is not promoting real estate. He is pointing out that there is indeed a problem with international (foreign) money.
————–

The funny thing is that you can do both at once. If you go to your butcher and he tells you one particular variety of steak is being bought up faster than he can get it in, he’s pointing out a problem with his supplier, but he’s also letting you know it’s popular and fairly priced. Smart butcher.

You may not have considered this, but there are people out there who think that foreign buyers drive up prices. So each time that someone complains about foreign buyers, these gullible folk at home are even more eager to buy. As much as I am sure that Keith Roy is a really nice guy, you can see how it would be good for his business for people to think that there is a foreign buyer problem. Smart realtor.

#78 rental property math on 11.16.17 at 10:19 pm

Not concerned in the slightest bit. I don’t mind nice people from Toronto being able to afford less and coming to Hamilton and buying a nice big house for 500K.
Only takes about 2 weeks to find a qualified tenant and the rent is always much more than the previous. Can’t see much of an effect happening on starter homes in Hamilton that a few years of rent can’t fix. Sorry happy housing crash everyone. I wonder which tenants are getting me a christmas present this year.I’ll keep a few bottles of red in the trunk incase any new tenants surprise me. Merry Christmas renters. Thanks for everything.

#79 Rexx Rock on 11.16.17 at 10:24 pm

Reading When Money Dies.Its about life in the 1920’s in Germany and Austria.Its almost what Canada is going through now.In the book the middle class and poor get slaughtered finacncially.The wages can’t keep up with the rising cost of living.Here in Victoria there is so many people who are renting living in fear of getting evicted from their place and the having to pay a much higher rent.Where my wife works she gets calls every day from millenials moving back to their parents because they just can’t make on their own.Its the perfect storm in Vancouver and Victoria and only the strong survive.

#80 DON on 11.16.17 at 10:29 pm

Where did all the people saying house prices will never come down – but they have an will continue due to high prices, less credit and changing sentiment.

Where did all the people saying interest rates will never rise go – are they muted while the world raises interest rates???

To not see the writing on the wall as first time buyers and their parents become priced out.

Major centers in Australia have experienced price declines for the past three months.

A convergent of factors will topple the market – collapse as people become disgusted buying 2 million houses. It is more affordable to buy a lot and slowly build then start at 2 million.

For all those saying it hasn’t happened yet so it never will – wishful thinking. Even China has a credit problem – hence limits on capital now leaving the country.

#81 For those about to flop... on 11.16.17 at 10:34 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Surrey.

These guys put this old case of mine back on the market 10days ago for 200k less.

They are on the hook for 2.22 ,now asking less than 2 million.

From the outside ,it appears they are up Morgan Creek without a paddle…

M43BC

16133 Morgan Creek Crescent, Surrey paid 2.22 asking 1.99

Jul 1:$2,588,000
Jul 26: $2,199,000
Change: 389,000. 15%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=16133%20Morgan%20Creek%20Crescent,%20Surrey&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA3NllQWQ==

#82 young & foolish on 11.16.17 at 10:34 pm

Of course, Garth is right … it’s the cheap money and easy credit. People buy houses with borrowed money after all.
Many people are wondering when the easy money will end and take the housing market (and equities) down with it. Massive amounts of leverage remain on just about everybody’s books.

Pay down you debts, and keep some dry powder available for when the tide goes out.

Who buys equities with leverage? Not the average investor. Who buys a house with leverage? Everyone. – Garth

#83 cramar on 11.16.17 at 10:35 pm

Ah Garth, April’s a MILLENNIAL! Whatya expect? One does not attain wisdom until much older.

#84 akashic record on 11.16.17 at 10:39 pm

#74 Smoking Man on 11.16.17 at 10:02 pm

My last poem was written by my right thump. My left one was pissed and posted it on the big screen.

Can’t do it, that thumb is bad. Really bad.

Locking for a Sharpe knife to cut it off.

Don’t want to be anywhere near that thing.

Morning cuts are better. Sleep on it.

#85 She's ...... on 11.16.17 at 10:51 pm

Taking care of herself

If she believes her message ? Than she’s dumber than a box of rocks

But , she does not believe what she’s sayin, she’s ruthless. Tim, well done

#86 Ed. on 11.16.17 at 10:52 pm

#65 Doubter “Please learn to decode the subtleties of written speech as I hate having to explain myself here.”

I read your original post. I can see how Newcomer could easily misinterpret your meaning. If you want to be subtle, this is not a good forum.

#87 Smoking Man on 11.16.17 at 10:52 pm

The shit

Kids remember

#88 n1tro on 11.16.17 at 10:57 pm

I’m torn on April. Is she really that dumb or really that smart? Mad props for understanding the math yet coming out and conning moisters to keep buying. She’d make a great politician one day.

#89 Long-Time Lurker on 11.16.17 at 11:01 pm

The Tao of Tax Evasion

Chapter 75

Tao Te Ching (Dao De Jing) by Lao Tzu. 400 B.C.

“People go hungry because taxes eat their food.
Therefore, the people go hungry.

People are hard to manage because they are oppressed.
Therefore, they are hard to manage….

– Translated by Brian Donohue, 2005, Chapter 75

http://www.egreenway.com/taoism/ttclz75.htm

I read a Maclean’s article today on Canadian debt levels and exampled personal financial disasters. (sorry no link) Given the circumstances it makes you wonder why there isn’t more financial education in public schools up until high school ends because everyone has to deal with money? Yeah, past generations were more prudent but the examples given were serious financial failures. The key mistakes were excess spending and excess debts. They just made really bad financial decisions that would have been prevented with more financial education.

#90 For those about to flop... on 11.16.17 at 11:05 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver.

Featured these guys a couple of times , just took another 400k off asking today.

So after signing on for 5.39 they are asking 200k less at 5.19.

If it goes for this number after expenses and I guess we have to factor a little on for opportunity cost could burn a 600k hole in their pocket.

Talk about Napoleon Dynamite…

M43BC

1650 Waterloo Street, Vancouver paid 5.39 ass4.74 now asking 5.19

Jan 12:$5,900,000
Jun 20: $5,698,000

Change: – 202000.00 -3%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1650-waterloo-street

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMDVEWA==

#91 45north on 11.16.17 at 11:22 pm

You can qualify to buy a $707,000 condo today based on the prevailing 5-year mortgage rate if you earn $100,000 per year and have $140,000 to put down (thanks, Mom). But if you wait for the stress test, the same income and down payment will get you a place worth only $560,000.

The banks are withdrawing credit. OSFI is providing cover:

Just listen to Dave McKay, who happens to be in charge of the Royal Bank: “We need some of this policy change, particularly the B-20 change, as we are in a highly stimulative monetary policy environment. We needed to layer on some type of policy change; now that the Bank of Canada feels more comfortable raising rates, that’s supposed to be the brake on the economy that we all like to see.”

April would be better off with a low profile.

Nonplused: What do they see coming? Well, I’ll give you a hint. Higher interest rates.

That’s part of it. At any rate they have embarked on a drastic and sudden course . April has no clue.

#92 MSM-Free Zone on 11.16.17 at 11:50 pm

What a fitting photo this evening.

“….The Trump administration said it will allow once again the importation of body parts from African elephants shot for sport, contending that encouraging wealthy big-game hunters to kill them will aid the vulnerable species….”

“…The change marks a shift in efforts to stop the importation of elephant tusks and hides, overriding a 2014 ban imposed by the Obama administration….”

“…The move was quickly praised by groups that champion big-game trophy hunting, including Safari Club International and the lobbying arm of the National Rifle Association….”

You can’t make his stuff up.

Just when you thought this spineless, self-absorbed, serial-lying, insecure, insensitive, thin-skinned, bigoted, blowhard of a fake POTUS man-child could not stoop any lower to his lobbying idiot base of freedum-luvin’, pickup-drivin’, gun-totin’, guvernment-hatin’ toothless morons….

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-elephant-trophy-ban-1.4405791

#93 For those about to flop... on 11.16.17 at 11:57 pm

CONFIRMED PINK DRAW

L.S in Arbutus wrote this post to me way back in late July.

Well, confirmation of what happened has come through and so here is the result .

The details…

2911 w 29th ave Vancouver.

Paid 2.82 January 2016

Sold 2.99 July 2017

And so they got just a touch more than what L.S guessed, enough to keep them fairly safe from the outside looking in and that’s why we call it a Pink Draw…

M43BC

///////////////////////////////////////////////

Sold on July 25th
#128 LS in Arbutus on 07.29.17 at 9:45 am
FLOP – from my hood

2911 W 23 AVE.

Bought Aug 2014 $1.887
Bought Jun 2015 $2.228
Bought Jan 2016 $2.828

Now asking $3.000

Assessed $3.131

Most things in the ‘hood seem to be selling for at least 10% below assessed. So this will be loss, even before transaction costs.

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwME1VSA==

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2911-w-23rd-avenue

#94 Longterm on 11.17.17 at 12:23 am

#3 Johnny D on 11.16.17 at 5:58 pm

You are correct. Time to arrest the TransCanada Pipeline CEO and Board.

#95 For those about to flop... on 11.17.17 at 12:35 am

This one sold 3 days ago for a loss.

I will present it in a few months when it it is confirmed by b.c assessment but I can give you the details now.

Paid 2.87 in April 2017

Sold for 2.76 November 2017

So they will probably take it on the chin for a 300k loss for a little longer than a six month investment.

Look how much lower than original ask it went for.

Ain’t no sunshine when she’s gone…

M43BC

Sold on November 13

Asking 2.88

3640 W 2nd Avenue, Vancouver paid 2.87 ass2.99 April 2017

Jun 19:$3,388,000
Sep 20: $2,988,800
Change: – 399200.00 -12%.

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=3640%20W%202nd%20Avenue,%20Vancouver&ptype_house=1&max_price=1300000&min_price=800000&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMDZUTA==

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3640-w-2nd-avenue

#96 Harvey on 11.17.17 at 12:41 am

@#77 Newcomer (re – #65, #50, #11)

Your point in #77 is well taken and would indeed be true if it came from anyone else. But being that the quote came from a realtor we should error on the side of caution and not over-estimate his strategic capacity.

#97 Nonplused on 11.17.17 at 12:42 am

#91 45north

“That’s part of it. At any rate they have embarked on a drastic and sudden course . April has no clue.”

I am not disagreeing with you just following on.

It is possible to gain some insight from what other people do as to what they are thinking. For example we know now that “peak cheap oil” is a rear-view mirror event, and we now drill for expensive shale because we have to feed the oil machine we already built and it’s too expensive to replace. But what about renewables or maybe additional new nuclear? Options are available all we can glean from the data is that the oil age is half over.

Similarly we can’t tell just from these moves what the powers that be see in the future for the economic market, but when even the banks are welcoming the new rules (and they all have think tanks too), we can know for sure a change is in the air. I can’t sum up all the potential outcomes without going on as usual, but I could maybe make it short by saying “less lending, one way or another”.

#98 For those about to flop... on 11.17.17 at 1:04 am

Recent Sale Report.

This one went 5 days ago.

6637 Dunbar st,Vancouver.

Originally asking 2.98 then 2.88 then 2.68 then 2.6 then 2.58 then 2.53 then 2.49 then 2.45

Sold for 2.4

Tax assessment 2.69

So they were stubborn and acting like they had to get a certain number but no other sales in recent history,so they are free and clear..

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/6637-dunbar-street

#99 DON on 11.17.17 at 1:28 am

#63 Dolce Vita on 11.16.17 at 8:57 pm

The BIG Electron – nice?

What came first God(s) or the Big Electron?

#100 Damifino on 11.17.17 at 2:23 am

#79 Rexx Rock

Reading When Money Dies.Its about life in the 1920’s in Germany and Austria.Its almost what Canada is going through now
———————————

Well, I’m confused. How does the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic in the early 1920’s bear any similarity to the current Canadian situation. German Marks were worth more as scrap paper than their face value.

We’ve been desperate to get some inflation happening for a decade with our perpetual “emergency” interest rates. So far… zip.

Except, of course, residential housing.

#101 jane24 on 11.17.17 at 3:09 am

The one thing that has always been valid in my 60 years on this planet is that fool and their money are soon parted. There is always a fool. There always will be. There will always be sharks willing to part said fools from their money. Only the methods to do so change over time.

I do wonder though if all this videoed advice to the foolish masses will come back to bite the sharks via future lawsuits. In the past you had no proof as to what the shark said, now you do.

#102 under the radar on 11.17.17 at 5:17 am

NYSE margin debt is about 2.86% of US GDP. A lot of borrowed money propping up prices, sound familiar.?

#103 Dharma Bum on 11.17.17 at 6:34 am

This brings us to April’s message on B20, the universal mortgage stress test the evil bank regulator is about to foist on all the moisters. – Garth

FOIST! Hah hah:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOpszUwnQRQ

#104 Dharma Bum on 11.17.17 at 6:46 am

“April showers bring May flowers.”

Sorry…I couldn’t resist. No, really, I apologize.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-1Cpdv9Og8

#105 Oakville Rocks! on 11.17.17 at 7:12 am

Happy to say I have never seen the Bachelor but April is alright with me. If I am going to hire a realtor to sell my house/condo/barn/doghouse I am bloody well going to choose one that believes NOW is a good time to buy my house/condo/barn/doghouse. A realtor who believes buyers should wait to buy is going to be terrible at selling today. Garth makes a compelling case why buyers should wait but let’s face it, he has made a compelling case for the past 10 years and yet prices have gone up and people continue to buy.

By most accounts North America has an obesity epidemic. People here could stand to lose some weight or at least make better choices about what they eat. Pretty sure there is no BMI Scale adjacent to the ice cream parlour at the Belfountain General Store and the staff are fully committed to the quality of their ice cream and that NOW is a great time to have an ice cream cone (for me and my dog). Just saying….

As a business owner I want sales people who are committed to our company and the products we sell. Hope anyone of whatever era can see the logic in that.

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.17 at 8:03 am

@#47 tccontra
“And she’s not that ‘hot’, as far as I’m concerned. My wife is wayyyy hotter!”
++++++

We must assume your wife reads the blog…..compliments….cheaper than flowers.

#107 millmech on 11.17.17 at 8:03 am

#78
Why pay $500,00, I am debating on buying a house in a smaller town for $25,000 (2bdrm, 1bth)and renting it out for $600/mth. Technically I could buy twenty homes for the price of one Hamilton home and possibly make $12,000/mth in rental income.

#108 Rational Optimist on 11.17.17 at 8:07 am

I want to thank Smartalox for the important information he provided the other day about the T1213. Everyone should consider his advice on the matter.

I’ve used the T1213 in the past (not lately) for RRSP contributions, and for some reason had it in my mind that they were ONLY for RRSP contributions. This after actually completing (so presumably looking at) the form a couple of times. Huge oversight on my part- yes, ‘RRSP contributions’ are the first type of deduction mentioned, but six other types follow. I guess they didn’t look like they applied to me- most don’t, but the last one, ‘Donations,’ certainly does.

The T1213 could be a great part of an annual giving plan made near the end of the calendar year (I think it’s a good idea to dedicate some time with one’s spouse to re-evaluate donations and giving, but that’s beside the point). I’m certainly going to do that when I next talk to my wife about how much we’ve been giving, and how much we should in the future. I’ll be sure to mention yet another “guy who posts on Turner’s blog” who provided good info.

#109 Renter's Revenge! on 11.17.17 at 8:14 am

April’s a smooth operator. She doesn’t actually say that you should buy a house before the stress test kicks in, she just says “you’ll have less money in the new year”. She doesn’t even say you’ll qualify for a lower mortgage amount. Isn’t it great of her to give this “shout out” to all of her “buyers”?

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.17 at 8:20 am

@#105 Oakville Snarks
“….By most accounts North America has an obesity epidemic. People here could stand to lose some weight or at least make better choices about what they eat. Pretty sure there is no BMI Scale adjacent to the ice cream parlour at the Belfountain General Store and the staff are fully committed to the quality of their ice cream and that NOW is a great time to have an ice cream cone……”

Meeeooowww.
Methinks though doth protest too loudly.
The Realtor bashing hit a little too close to home?

Comparing buying an ice cream cone to a buying a house……My god.

Never mind.
Go do what you Realtors do best.
Go stare at yourself in the mirror.
Perfection.

#111 Fah-who for-aze on 11.17.17 at 8:24 am

Despite the resemblance between a plot of house prices and Mt. Crumpet, house prices will not decline while sellers cling to the faith that the right buyer is just around the corner. Be he (or she) of this nation or another.

Mortgage stress tests are not IQ tests. Banks know the risk of mortgage default is high, but also know that house prices always (yes, Virginia, always) rise over the long term. The short-term risk is passed over to the CMHC, whose laudable mandate mitigates default risk by steering people of limited means away from predatory lenders.

If seller A wishes to let Buyer B purchase his $600k castle with a mortgage of $500k and $100k in a brown paper bag from an undisclosed private or even seller-assumed mortgage, who will know? “Not enforceable in any court!” we hear from the thunder box. But these wise guys use bats for gavels. They are really real.

Just another sad song in the hymnal of unintended consequences from misguided government policy. Amen.

#112 Bruce on 11.17.17 at 8:43 am

A couple of ways to take over a country war (old school, Garth style) or just buy it. We simply have been bought, you can argue this all you want, you’re wrong.

#113 Smartalox on 11.17.17 at 8:57 am

@flop:

The trend of houses selling under assessed values is clearly evident in your posts. It will be interesting to see if it will be evident to homeowners opening their assessment notices in April 2018.

Of course, assessed values are as of July 2017, so home owners may not see what you see in their own BC assessments until spring of 2019 – which would reflect home values circa July 2018.

I know a lot of homeowners who appeal their sky high assessments to try to keep their taxes down. Others who look at their assessments like they’ve won a lottery – or at least a larger line of credit!

It will be interesting to see if and how the mood changes, but I suspect that the denial will continue until at least mid 2019.

Keep up the good work!

#114 Sue on 11.17.17 at 9:12 am

Rental Property Math
500K will be you a crappy townhouse in Hamilton..or maybe a tiny house with dated decor and no garage. Hamilton is 50% overvalued. As a bonus, however, you get smoke stacks, crack shacks and Barton beauties. :)

#115 241A65 on 11.17.17 at 9:14 am

Well-argued, Garth.

A shame so many people are innumerate – millennials are apparently no exception.

#116 Mordko on 11.17.17 at 10:00 am

1. Interest rates will rise – true. What we don’t know is “when” and “by how much”.

2. When the rates rise, inflation will be up. That might push the price of assets up – if measured in the depreciated currency.

3. The effect of the new test on house prices is exaggerated in this blog. It will not impact first time buyers, who have no down-payment anyway.

4. The measure that did have an impact was taxing foreign buyers. It shifted the frenzy first from Vancouver to Toronto and now to Montreal.

5. I don’t know what will happen to house prices, but if I were to guess:

– slow spring
– stabilization by fall 2018.
– little overall impact on pricing in GTA.

#117 Dave Ceeps on 11.17.17 at 10:02 am

Checked out stomp Website, it looks more like an adult entertainment thing or massage parlour. 2 Of the agents are even hotter than April, prefer Mariana Perantinos or Nina Pham.

#118 Calgary Rip Off on 11.17.17 at 10:04 am

Sorry never heard of her.

Just another one of these “Youtube sensations”. Has nothing to do with the real world as all these other “Celebrities” on instagram and snapchat.

These apps are made for the loser twenty year olds and younger.

One word to those apps and this nonsense: DELETE.

#119 Ace Goodheart on 11.17.17 at 10:27 am

Re #17 TS

People here in Canada buy Million dollar houses with fairy dust and pixie poop. All on a dream and a prayer. You have obviously never met a determined Canadian mortgage broker

#120 Greg on 11.17.17 at 10:30 am

Wow. If you go to April’s website and notice the view from the trendy apartment on her home page I think you’ll agree it’s an oil refinery. Get in there kiddies.

#121 LivinLarge on 11.17.17 at 10:38 am

“But nothing can accelerate forever…”……..then you’ve missed all the surprises in cosmology for the last 20 years.

I’m not saying things will accellerate indefinitely but only that contrary to “common sense”, they actually can.

Maybe, just maybe, there is the equivalent to dark matter and dark energy in the RE/economic model. Could that be human greed/human nature? When you’re dealing with those two unknowns then you really are out in the weeds. “No one has ever gone broke underestimating people”.

Still, I’m betting that there’s a big chill coming in January. Just how big????

#122 Pastor Over on 11.17.17 at 10:46 am

Sorry for the delay, but my usual translator is taking some personal time.

The Three Little Pigs go shoppin’ fer a house. They cain’t afford 3 cuase of the inflation. So the Wolf goes “Buy mine, its cheapest on the block. Why pay rent on a sty in the sky when you can own all this?” But the smart pig says “What is that trap door yonder in the back there?” And the Wolf sez “A sofisticated buyer like yerself will know that it protects you and I should the Bankers come acallin’. ” So the pigs stroke there luxuriant chinny chin’s fer a bit and decide to buy and live happily ever after, until the end.

#123 TheDood on 11.17.17 at 11:06 am

#17 TS on 11.16.17 at 6:30 pm
Are Canadians really buying $700,000 houses with $100,000 salaries?

That’s a joke right?

You can’t qualify for a $700,000 mortgage with $100,000 in income?

Can you?
________________________________________

People are buying RE worth alot more than that with salaries LESS than 100K. Its doable here in Canada. The less you make and the bigger the property, the more doable it is! We can make it happen.

#124 MediOgre on 11.17.17 at 11:11 am

B-20…B-schmunny. If I own a place worth $700 thousand today AND I have the cash flow to support that place, why in the H am I going to sell it for $500 thousand on J1. Real estate generally increases over time and will sometimes plateau. That’s it.

Only two things make people desperate to sell. 1) people losing jobs 2) Spikes in interest rates

Not saying it can’t happen, but everything is cash flow ~ says this MediOgre

#125 Scutel on 11.17.17 at 11:27 am

Boys, I think its time we skeedadled from our lair and moved on up. I am gist down at the titty bar waitin’ on my Realtoress. Her show’s just finishin’ so we should be on the road soon. I’ll let you know if I find a good hidey hole at the right price. yours, Scutel

#126 Ace Goodheart on 11.17.17 at 11:34 am

Most of us are slaves and we don’t know it. Ask yourself when was the last time you got to decide something simple like your sleeping and waking hours, when you work and when you don’t, what your schedule looks like.

We’re for the most part born slaves. We are entered into a social system, against our will and against the will of our parents, and then taught to fear that system.

The only hope anyone has of ever having any control at all over the all powerful system is financial independence. That is your one and only weapon.

The more you can secure your income with out having to be a slave to the system, the more freedom you have.

A person’s goal in our little system of life long slaves is to build a passive income stream and eliminate all debt. You want to do this when you’re young.

So…..no 700,000 mortgage that you plan to spend 35 years paying. Find a cheaper house. When you pay your mortgage every month you are paying people like me to NOT work and to pay less income tax than you (I own a lot of bank stock and your interest payments come to me as dividends).

A dollar is worth around 6 cents per year (I get 15 cents off my dollars per year but I am good at this and have been doing it for a long time). Make sure each of your dollars are getting that for you.

Do not go into debt. That is what perpetuates your situation as a helpless slave.

#127 Samantha @ LifeOnCredit.ca on 11.17.17 at 11:41 am

The B20 will reduce prices eventually, but anybody expecting a ~20% discount on Jan 1st is dreaming. It will take at least a year to get the full effect of this legislation, and all we have at this point are guestimates. Meanwhile anything can happen, as this legislation is not working in vacuum, and many other things (job market, immigration, foreign money, etc,) affect the same market.

#128 rainclouds on 11.17.17 at 11:46 am

YVR

Listings climbing, sales tepid…..NDP intervention coming in Feb 2018, apocalypse impending?

http://vancitycondoguide.com/mid-november-vancouver-real-estate-update/

#129 Mike in Edmonton on 11.17.17 at 12:03 pm

With all these “buy now b/c you won’t be able to afford to in 2018” sale push ‘news’ articles, I’ve had a few friends comment to their significant others that they’d better buy a house quick. Then I sarcastically say “yeah! Rush into buying an asset that has to depreciate!”

6 more weeks! Then everyone can finally get choked off and these crazy high prices can start to come down. It could just be seasonality, but I’ve seen a lot more house for the $ in and around Edmonton lately. Probably 10% more.

#130 Rexx Rock on 11.17.17 at 12:06 pm

Don’t believe the phony baloney goverment numbers.Give me a break 1.5% inflation rate.Hydro,food ,gas,taxes,car and house insurance,rent,housing.Is that enough for you?Everybody knows its like 7% to over 8% inflation rate a year here in B.C.Do the math.

#131 LivinLarge on 11.17.17 at 12:13 pm

“Only two things make people desperate to sell. 1) people losing jobs 2) Spikes in interest rates”………once again incredibly simplistic.

3. Change in job.
4. Change in job location
5. Death and children need to sell
6. Death and spouse needs ro sell
7. New child
8. Empty nest
9. Divorce
10. Marriage where one or both own their own property
11. Retirement downsizing
And there are going to be many more than the above. Just what I come with off the top of my head.

#132 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 11.17.17 at 12:38 pm

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/soros-sells-twitter-facebook-apple-and-snap-2017-11-14

#133 45north on 11.17.17 at 12:39 pm

Nonplused: It is possible to gain some insight from what other people do as to what they are thinking.

which was the case with Home Capital Group – it showed the banks wanted to reduce risk even if it meant doing less business.

But what about renewables or maybe additional new nuclear?

I’ve heard that solar is just not worth it. One criticism is that it requires backup thermal plants whose turbines have to be spinning so that the second the solar dies the thermal plants can replace it. If you have to have the backup plants there’s not much point of having solar.

I’ve followed Arnie Gunderson. Arnie is a nuclear engineer who has spent his life developing nuclear energy. Fukushima changed his mind – he no longer believes in nuclear energy. He thinks that the Candu heavy water reactors are an evolutionary dead-end. Nevertheless they produce half of Ontario’s electricity. My thought is liquid-fluoride thorium reactors. Point is nuclear is expensive and risky. There is a lack of leadership.

#134 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 11.17.17 at 12:40 pm

“To understand what’s going on in “the economy,” it is a serious mistake to look at average statistics. This is because the wealth and income skews are so great that average statistics no longer reflect the conditions of the average man.”

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/our-biggest-economic-social-political-issue-two-economies-ray-dalio

#135 Stan Brooks on 11.17.17 at 12:40 pm

Dummcopf Canadians continue to be brainwashed by the media and the banks.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/toronto-vancouver-headed-housing-boom-125435100.html

#136 april on 11.17.17 at 12:48 pm

#124 – You must be one of those naive Millennials. Home prices can drop alot and stay flat for yrs as has happened in the past. Think of the 90’s or were you still in diapers then? You may want or need to sell when prices are well below what you paid for your pad.

#137 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 11.17.17 at 12:49 pm

#17 TS on 11.16.17 at 6:30 pm
Are Canadians really buying $700,000 houses with $100,000 salaries?

#123 TheDood

————————————————————–
Maybe Canadians can buy $700k properties with $100k incomes but not too hard to find similar dynamics still quite at play down here in Les Deplorables land…

http://tinyurl.com/yc44vyns
^
|
|
DiMartino’s twitter status

Recommend DiMartino’s book: FED UP

#138 MediOgre on 11.17.17 at 12:54 pm

3. Change in job ~ why did you lose it? Yes this creates desperation and we agree
4. Job location ~ done that and rented the place. did pretty good too
5.Children need to sell to get all that cash out. Not desperate
6.Hope most people have life insurance…
7.Bunk beds – again not desperate enough to sell at a loss
8.Extra room for stuff ~ nests are never really empty btw
9.I’ll give you divorce, but neither would be desperate enough to lose money
10.Again there are options other than selling
11.Retirement is not desperate selling

My point was to a US style RE Bomb – they experienced mass loss of jobs, escalating rates and the beauty thing in the States ~ they don’t have to go chapter 11. They just mail their keys to the bank.
Sorry for my simplicity. I’m into macro economics

#139 Miss Behavin' on 11.17.17 at 12:57 pm

#131 I’m telling u 4 the 900th… on 11.17.17 at 12:13 pm
“When rates rise and credit shrinks, it’s over.” Says the moron to his moronic flock of deplorables.
Sooooo scary!
———

Son, I think we can all appreciate the subtleties in your post. I don’t know if spitting into the wind is always a good idea, but even a broken clock can be used as a cudgel.
If you are having trouble understanding the nuances of supply/demand economics, have a look at the price of vanilla. Then you’ll know why your mother stopped baking your favourite cookies.

#140 By Design on 11.17.17 at 12:57 pm

I’ve come to realize that this is simply far bigger than any intellectual mind or sound economic thinker for that matter. Responsible savers and sound investors have 100 decks of cards stacked against them. This is why a bimbo like the one in today’s post can continue to look like a genius while the rest of us look like fools. You have governments at all levels who have wanted this from the very beginning and want it to continue. If governments really wanted to stop this they would have introduced meaningful legislation and restrictions to halt this madness years ago. Canada really has nothing of value to sell the world. So why not bring the world here? It continues to bring in new arrivals and enslave them to unthinkable debt to the one thing that it can offer… shoddily built housing . Multi-generational Canadians have been given no choice but to pay the premium in order to continue to live in the few urban centers/regions worth living in, that are now perilously overpopulated when one considers infrastructure and public services available.

Anyone who dares to present this logic, is immediately shut down as a racist and a xenophobe even though it makes no difference as to where new Canadians are arriving from. Again, this is by design and even some of the smartest people I know fall into this trap . The undeniable fact is new Canadians need a place to live and purchase prices as well as rents have shot through the roof because of this. Of course the vast majority who were already present cannot afford the insane amounts required. So the bar has been lower down to the ground in order to qualify for what is essentially unthinkable amounts of free money to the feeble-minded.

It’s taking me a long time to wrap my head around the fact we are like mice standing in front of a freight train. Reversion back to sanity would make us all infinitely happy, starting with myself. But aren’t we all tired of being wrong? I know I am.

#141 AGuyInVancouver on 11.17.17 at 12:58 pm

#128 rainclouds on 11.17.17 at 11:46 am
YVR

Listings climbing, sales tepid…..NDP intervention coming in Feb 2018, apocalypse impending?

http://vancitycondoguide.com/mid-november-vancouver-real-estate-update/
_ _ _
Sales are tepid only in detached homes, which are almost exclusively the preserve of offshore money now. As indicated in that report, sales of condos, which are what Canadians can actually afford, are roaring along.

#142 time after time on 11.17.17 at 1:01 pm

Mainstream media headline:

“The Clintons held the Democratic Party hostage for 2 decades — and the sudden revisionism is inconveniently late”.

Wow…

#143 Dr. Dow on 11.17.17 at 1:08 pm

Brilliant!

#144 d'Edmonton on 11.17.17 at 1:20 pm

707K today Vs 560K next year:

April connects with most people who focus on their monthly payment as a measure of what they can ‘afford’.

They all believe that:

– RE always goes up
– A higher sale price will always bail you out when you do need to sell
– Interest rates will never rise

And will:

– Ignore other costs in calculating how much they ‘made’ (Strata fee, insurance, property tax, maintenance, upgrades)
– Ignore buying and selling costs
– Look blank when you mention opportunity loss were the 147K difference invested in a balanced and diversified portfolio

#145 MediOgre on 11.17.17 at 1:32 pm

#137 April – boy I sure wouldn’t want to sell my house for less than what I paid… the circumstances would truly have to be dire.

Thanks for your wise council.

#146 DON on 11.17.17 at 1:38 pm

This can’t be good for the state of personal finances in Canada. I wondered why everyone seems to have two newer cars in their driveways as of late. Won’t take much more to max debt out – the pre and post Christmas retail numbers will be interesting.

“MARKETPLACE
‘It’s very troubling’: Hidden camera catches car dealerships breaking sales rules
Regulator says salespeople’s loan advice lacks ‘honest information’”


Outstanding car loans from Canada’s federally regulated banks alone total $72.7 billion.

“Consumers get hooked,” says Mohamed Bouchama, head of Car Help Canada, an automobile buying and advice service. “All they see is low monthly payments. This is the car they want, they have been dreaming to drive … and the dealerships take advantage of that.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/marketplace-long-term-loans-cars-1.4402394

#147 Howard on 11.17.17 at 2:06 pm

The hottest housing market in the world is facing a reckoning. Not even real estate developers can afford Toronto’s land prices anymore.

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/in-toronto-worlds-hottest-housing-market-starting-to-boil-over

#148 Vit on 11.17.17 at 2:09 pm

Re – It took me 4 houses to learn this
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/16/homeownership-doesnt-build-wealth-study-finds.html

Nonsense In Canada one have to pay 25% capital gain and house gain is tax free .

#149 I Love April! on 11.17.17 at 2:22 pm

I watch the entire video.. but fail to understand what she was saying.. too busy looking at the pretty face.

#150 Cindy Vanderbilt on 11.17.17 at 2:22 pm

#10 April’s got it right! on 11.16.17 at 6:18 pm

Yo Sweetie, make up ya mind. Is prices gonna be sticky on the way down, or is they gonna be reset?

You gots a wrinkle in ya tin foil hat, homie. Yuh last two lines of dat post were written under the influence. Or maybe yuh homie stole ya phone and clowned you. We will nevah know!

#151 Stan Brooks on 11.17.17 at 2:34 pm

#140 By Design on 11.17.17 at 12:57 pm

You describe a feeling of a normal person in a mental institution, like in ‘one flew over cuckoo’s nest’.

Get out. Period. There is no fixing of this institution.

#152 Newcomer on 11.17.17 at 2:36 pm

#107 millmech on 11.17.17 at 8:03 am
#78
Why pay $500,00, I am debating on buying a house in a smaller town for $25,000 (2bdrm, 1bth)and renting it out for $600/mth.
—————
Consider the quality of tenants that would want to rent a house that most responsible working people could easily buy for cash (hell, you could pay for it with a credit card for the cashback). If you don’t have experience renting to poor people, talk to some people who do first.

#153 rainclouds on 11.17.17 at 2:42 pm

141 Vanman “Sales are tepid only in detached homes, which are almost exclusively the preserve of offshore money now. As indicated in that report, sales of condos, which are what Canadians can actually afford, are roaring along.”

—————————————————————
Actually townhouses are similar to houses, 2 out of 3 metrics are sliiiiding

Regarding condo’s:
That’s one interpretation. The other is moisters with no clue are the last to figure it out….. as mentioned in the report,condo listings ARE increasing.

As evidenced by Flopper, losses already in SFD’s and the Bolsheviks haven’t imposed their deep dive fixes yet either.

Patience Grasshopper……..

#154 Good grief on 11.17.17 at 2:49 pm

I’d buy a house off her !!

Gotta wait for a 40% correction first, Hun!

#155 d'Edmonton on 11.17.17 at 3:06 pm

#144 d’Edmonton on 11.17.17 at 1:20 pm
.
.
– Look blank when you mention opportunity loss were the 147K difference invested in a balanced and diversified portfolio
——————————–
Sorry, I meant the 141.4 K down payment

#156 Johnny D on 11.17.17 at 3:20 pm

A#94 Longterm on 11.17.17 at 12:23 am
#3 Johnny D on 11.16.17 at 5:58 pm

You are correct. Time to arrest the TransCanada Pipeline CEO and Board.
——————————————————
Reading words is hard eh?

#157 Overheardyou on 11.17.17 at 3:25 pm

#17 TS on 11.16.17 at 6:30 pm
Are Canadians really buying $700,000 houses with $100,000 salaries?

That’s a joke right?

You can’t qualify for a $700,000 mortgage with $100,000 in income?

Can you?

—–

Not at any of the big banks, I tried and they only offered 4.5x income

#158 older than a boomer on 11.17.17 at 3:26 pm

Hate to brag, but sold my tasty little bung this week, cash deal, 25 grand deposit, bought a life lease, 18 stories up, for 20 over ask, same deal, and all 3 parties have a long closing, 2 months. We born in the depression and WWII
just seem to have all the luck, but it was tough sledding then too.

#159 Overheardyou on 11.17.17 at 3:33 pm

#35 I thinks I know something on 11.16.17 at 7:15 pm
“If credit is so reduced for all buyers that the unit they can purchase must be 21% cheaper after B20 lands, then why won’t real estate prices follow?” – Garth

—————————————————-

Because this is the GTA. Doomers have been bigly wrong about a correction the last 9 years and they will continue to be wrong. Ten years from now, I bet the average SFH in the GTA will be 2 million.

—–

The last time I checked the GTA crashed the worst in Canada and has crashed more than once too. But keep those dreams alive y’know?

#160 Triplenet on 11.17.17 at 3:34 pm

#113 Smartalox

….with regard to BC Assessment – you’re all wrong.
You dont understand the property taxation process.
Sorry.

#161 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 11.17.17 at 3:44 pm

#146 DON on 11.17.17 at 1:38 pm

This can’t be good for the state of personal finances in Canada. I wondered why everyone seems to have two newer cars in their driveways as of late. Won’t take much more to max debt out – the pre and post Christmas retail numbers will be interesting.
————————————————-
Yup. Very true, not good.

https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/930884600905297921

And as far as pre and post Christmas #’s, hurricane activity will obscure the real picture, conveniently.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-09/supply-shocks-raise-odds-of-a-fed-mistake

#162 TnT on 11.17.17 at 4:02 pm

#140 By Design on 11.17.17 at 12:57 pm

Good post…

The greatest wealth generator for “those in the know” while all the rest are left holding the sack.

These peep made out like bandits…

Developers, Builders, Real Estate Brokers & Agents, Banks and all lenders, Government, Baby Boomers selling who sold, Casino’s washing offshore money, PR Firms advertising our Real Estate offshore, Offshore Hedge Funds and Investors, Speculators & Flippers.

Those holding the empty sack…

Any sucker who bought in the last 12 months and every tax paying (middle class) Canadian who will end up paying the bill once this unravels. Rich Canadian already park their cash in tax havens and the poor have no cash to begin with.

#163 Adrian on 11.17.17 at 5:41 pm

#121 LivinLarge on 11.17.17 at 10:38 am

I stand by my statement.

Nothing (i.e. the empty vacuum of space) is the only thing that can accelerate forever ;-)

The second law of thermodynamics tends to take care of the rest of the physical universe.

And “credit” (i.e. the change in debt) *IS* the “dark energy” of the financial universe. I have repeatedly linked to both the theory behind this AND the empirical evidence to support it, but follow this link and scroll down to the graph for Canada titled “Change in Household Credit and Change in House Prices”

http://www.profstevekeen.com/data-on-credit-employment-and-house-prices/#Canada

If you’re feeling particularly adventurous you might want to check out some of the other countries, too. Japan, UK, USA have all been through their financial crises, for example, while Australia, South Korea, & China are all anticipated to experience theirs in the next couple years. That is, unless they implement “help to buy” & “first-time buyer” grants to keep the credit flowing, as Australia did for the GFC.

#164 Smartalox on 11.17.17 at 5:47 pm

@Triplenet #160

Please, by all means, enlighten me. All I have to go on is what’s here:

https://info.bcassessment.ca/about-us/how-BC-Assessment-works

#165 jess on 11.17.17 at 5:50 pm

pumpers

Six million receive unsolicited increase on credit card limit

Citizens Advice raises concerns that lenders ‘actively pushing’ debt on to those who cannot afford it
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/17/six-million-receive-unsolicited-increase-credit-card-limit

“They just kept topping it up, or they’d just give it us. They never asked for any income to support it,” she said. Credit card lenders appear to be targeting people struggling with unaffordable levels of debt, according to research from the charity Citizens Advice, who helped Tracy to manage her problems.
Britain’s debt time​bomb: FCA urges action over £200bn crisis
Exclusive: Watchdog’s chief executive says he has seen problem at first hand, as as new figures show rising levels of debt
Read more

Almost one in five people struggling with debts have had their credit card limit raised without them requesting it, leading the charity to demand the Financial Conduct Authority ban the practice.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/18/credit-card-user-debt-advice
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/18/britain-debt-timebomb-fca-chief-crisis

#166 M on 11.17.17 at 11:49 pm

All a babe has to do is to be ENTHUSIASTIC with the right guy in the right position.
Then the bimbo career progresses.
Most of what I date these days are RE on-their -out-transition :)
The stories I hear from those babes are really entertaining.
One day I’ll write a book while sailing Fijis :)