No escape

No Bank of Canada rate increase next week. Phew. Talk about hammers and flies. With B20 taking flight, effectively adding a full 2% to mortgage rates, the housing market is already in for serious diddling. Plus, events of the next 10 weeks might make everything worse

Why is the central bank suddenly putting on the brakes after being all macho in the summer?

Oil is mired at fifty bucks. GDP growth is waning. Sears is firing. Trade numbers are weaker. So are retail sales. Real estate is wobbling. But mostly the worry is about NAFTA. That trade deal with the US directly impacts a quarter of the entire economy and millions of jobs. By all accounts, the talks suck. Ottawa is fighting for gender parity. Trump is fighting for jobs. We’re pooched.

Would Trump dump the deal? Well he walked the US away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and shocked the world by exiting the Paris Accord on climate change. Giving notice that NAFTA is dead would be no stretch since the guy doesn’t actually care what anybody (who didn’t vote for him) thinks.

So, no hike Wednesday morning. None until early 2018, despite the Fed pulling its trigger in December. Expect the dollar to lose ground for a while, especially if there’s a cabinet shuffle and Bill Morneau goes back to being simply a rich business dude brought down by arrogance and bad staff.

Let’s get back to B20 for a few minutes. The mother of all mortgage drones is loaded with nukes and groaning down the runway. What, exactly, happens next?

First, don’t listen to any industry chatter about mortgage lenders finding loopholes to circumvent the stress test, or to mitigate its affects by putting people into long (35-year) amortizations. While it’s true the bank cop (OSFI) did not spell out this aspect of the regs, rest assured any major moves to circumvent them will be squished.

Does that include borrowing from credit unions, which are not subject to OSFI rules?

“My wife emailed FICOM and the response she got from them made it sound like credit unions have no plans to follow these guidelines,” says Evan, “so I’m left wondering… is B20 really going to impact the market that much?”

Good question. For a while I’m sure the CU guys will benefit from a flood of new apps, since one in five borrowers today would fail the stress test and qualify for smaller loans. So the credit unions will happily take on more risk and become even more insanely exposed to a housing market which has a long road down. But they’re not banks and don’t have unlimited wells of money. Moreover, politicians in BC and Ontario are likely insist that B20 rules eventually be replicated by everyone. Finally, if the stress test is designed to protect people from being total hosers when it comes to taking a loan, why shouldn’t it apply to all?

Other questions include: when does the stress test take effect? When a house is bought? When it closes? When you get the mortgage funds? What about renewing an existing mortgage? Does it matter if I drive a Kia?

While January 1 is the date everyone’s throwing around, expect all the banks to have the test in place soon. Within a couple of weeks. OSFI instructed as much when it told them last week: “Where possible, federally regulated financial institutions are expected to comply with the principles and expectations set out in this guideline as of the date of this letter.” Remember – the banks wanted this rule change. It reduces their risk. They’ll get the paper cups ready just as quick as they can.

The test will take place when you apply and since almost everybody gets pre-approved these days, that’s when the moment of truth will arrive. Do you have enough verifiable income to pass the debt service ratio test at the offered mortgage rate + 2%? If not, the loan amount will be reduced until you do. As mentioned days ago, a family with 20% down who qualified to buy a $725,000 house before the test would be shopping for a $570,000 property after it.

So it doesn’t matter if you have an accepted offer, or if the deal closes in November or February. As soon as your lender has the test in place, it rules. Does that mean it makes sense to get pre-approved now while you still qualify to buy more? RateSpy had this advice on its site Friday: “If you need a mortgage or HELOC in the next 120 days and you expect your debt ratios to be high, apply ASAP. You don’t want to lose lender options as banks start announcing they’re implementing the stress test ahead of time.”

Sure, get pre-approved. But it’s useless. The approval will last, at most, until the middle of January and anyone buying in the 90-day period is likely to regret it. If overall credit shrinks as a result of the stress test with buyers qualified for lower mortgages, prices will naturally follow. That’s the object of this exercise – to dial back on inflated real estate equity while improving the quality of home loans. B20 adds 2% to mortgage costs – the equivalent of a huge spike in interest rates. Of course valuations will fade.

However, thousands will rush in, borrow and buy. Especially the moisters. May God have mercy. But she won’t.

 

210 comments ↓

#1 Ponnaps on 10.20.17 at 5:13 pm

That was early…

Am I First!!!!!

#2 David on 10.20.17 at 5:22 pm

My thoughts:
Don’t buy. Keep the powder dry.
Morneau should be toast.
Trudeau is a crying joke of a man.
First?

#3 Sad Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.20.17 at 5:23 pm

You dirty shysters got me fired up. wish I had time to complete the song. Still inspired by a Canadian hero.

Twelve SHYSTERS dropped out of school in seventy-three
They should of went straight to Mill Haven maximum security
Twelve houses lined up across the street
Seems the SHYSTERS had a hard selling anything.
CREA told the people they had nothing to fear
Said, “The last thing they wanna do is not bid out of fear”
They mostly drove cars with short German names
About 11 out of the dozen were hometown shames
Same message in the paper, buy now or buy never
They make you sick to your stomach whenever They are near.
Freezing slow time forever paying off that debt
He’s thirty-eight years old, never finished Highschool
He’s thirty-eight years old. He still is a dirty SHYSTER!

Sitting in the realtors office the telephone didn’t ring
Father said the shysters would tell us anything.
got a call from the shyster in the middle of the night
Seems someone else is willing to bid… and put up a fight.
See my sister got financially raped so a shyster got killed.
local home owner went to debtor’s prison
shyster is buried on the hill.
people felt safe when they closed the case.
They still stare at foreclosed sign in front of our place.

RIP Gord Downie .

#4 Whipster on 10.20.17 at 5:23 pm

Flop…. check this…. 5255 4 ave delta bc
Bought June 25 2016 for 1.175mill
Sold sept 28,2017 for 1.153mill; assessed at 1.264
Still too rich for my blood but speaks to declines in any profits….considering fees paid I assume you would consider this a confirmed case? I can only see things getting cheaper in the long run. Wishful thinking maybe lol

#5 TheSpangler on 10.20.17 at 5:23 pm

Well I was hoping for that rate increase, oh well. Hopefully this B-20 implementation will put downward pressures on prices in the Sea to Sky corridor.

#6 SCM on 10.20.17 at 5:24 pm

I know what will get the economy going! $10k TFSAs!!! NOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

How about higher wages for workers?

#7 Cloudy on 10.20.17 at 5:25 pm

As I stated when B-20 was finalized, I emailed my MLA to state my case that FICOM should follow suit, at least implementing rules that are substantially similar. Haven’t heard back yet. I pointed out it would be prudent to protect the provincial taxpayers from the flood of the riskiest applicants swarming the CUCPs. I also brought up that they can wear little to no of this politically because their hands were tied by the OSFI. I think everyone should do this.

If they don’t follow suit quickly I will be pulling out the $40,000ish in cash I hold in the local credit union between my business and personal/joint accounts plus the 25,000 HISA RRSP that is waiting to be used as a down payment and put it in a bank out of protest.

#8 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 10.20.17 at 5:25 pm

B-20, aka. “financial due diligence”.

I am not too concerned about the CAD/USD, Canada, after all is the most hawkish leaning bank in the world after the FED.

I would be more interested in the MXN/USD as they have a lot more to lose over NAFTA. 95% of Mexico’s exports are to the USA.

#9 Crazy millennial on 10.20.17 at 5:25 pm

Spoke to a buddy of mine who recently bought a home about these changes and what they might mean for him and his finances. His response was simply, I don’t care cause we (wife and kids) are staying at this place for next 30 years. Let them stress test they’re brains out! So in not sure these b20 changes well affect the market much. People have no interest in selling their homes and if worst comes to worst they don’t mind renting out the basement.

#10 david prokop on 10.20.17 at 5:25 pm

The housing correction in my Mississauga neighborhood appears to be over. The music that stopped for few summer months is back playing loud. My street used to be $800-900 a year and a half ago, then it made the huge jump to $1.3-$1.4M which was a 50% increase year over year. Recently there were several sales in the $1.2M range, all close to the asking price and sold within a week. So bear party is over. As long as the current situation persists (low interest rates, no collapsing economy) I don’t see it blowing up

#11 SCM on 10.20.17 at 5:27 pm

I don’t understand why boomers and conservatives hate Bill Morneau so much. I really don’t.

He embodies their core values and principles.

Getting rich in the private sector off screwing over the little guy.

He sounds like your kinda guy. If he was on the blue team instead of the red team, you guys would love him.

#12 genbizx on 10.20.17 at 5:27 pm

If you saw the coffee stain on Willy Mourneau’s shirt during the chit chat today I can tell you why.. I walk into tim hortons at king st. E and Charles E in the city of Kitchener and who am I shocked to see sitting in the last seat near the washroom but Billy all by himself. I walked straight over to him and after shaking his hand I “accidently “ spilled his coffee all over his shirt, phone, notes…it was awesome. As I walked away I say to him, “is that tax fairness for the middle class enough for ya?”
Ok, actually that didn’t happen but I did see him sitting there this morning looking like he had been the victim of a shunning. Perhaps told to go mingle among the commoners…

#13 JCM on 10.20.17 at 5:29 pm

I need advice. My wife and I might be evicted from our Toronto rental in the Summer of 2018. We can prudently afford a house of around $1.1 million (our combined incomes are around $300k) and we’re hoping to start having kids in the next couple of years. In other words, it makes sense for us to buy at today’s prices.

That said, I see the writing on the wall with respect to house prices. I was looking at TREB’s historical data, and the data from 1989 is eerily similar to the data from 2017 (high prices and a drop in volume). Getting another rental and moving our household an extra time would be worth it to us if we were to save $100k or $200k in after tax money. Our incomes are likely to keep increasing in the next few years, so we’re not too worried about being priced out of the market forever. First world problems, I know.

Thoughts? Should we try to scoop a deal in the Spring of 2018? Should we wait for 2019?

#14 SCM on 10.20.17 at 5:29 pm

New Zealand election result stokes housing, migration fears

SYDNEY/WELLINGTON (Reuters) – Temporary workers and foreign students previously drawn to New Zealand on the promise of gaining residency will start leaving en masse, migration agents say, as the incoming coalition government promises to cut record migration.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-newzealand-election/new-zealand-election-result-stokes-housing-migration-fears-idUSKBN1CP0QN?il%3D0

—————————

Now this is a Labour Party I can get behind. Good on them for cutting off the cheap labour pipeline that the Conservatives were pumping into NZ.

Politicians working for the benefit of their own people. What a crazy concept. So racist….

That’ll be all for today. I’m busy.

#15 LivinLarge on 10.20.17 at 5:30 pm

If I am simply flat out mistaken then ignore this post.

How is B20 adding a 2% bump to mortgage rates? As I read it here, all B20 is, is a requirement that the bank underwriting departments when approving a new mortgage application. Not very nice, sure but that’s nothing more draconian than lowering the total debt service ratio required for approval in the past.

The borrower still pays the current “real” APR don’t they?

So, noone is paying more interest, just qualifying for less house if they’re applying for a new mortgage?

#16 Dave on 10.20.17 at 5:31 pm

That credit union loop hole is huge and yet simple. Govt need to get on this asap or business as usual.

#17 Smartalox on 10.20.17 at 5:35 pm

I can’t wait to see how the local banks spin the B20 stress test.

So much for “You’re Richer Than you Think”

I saw something on FaceBook yesterday (might have been fake) that had RBC insurance offering to insure pot smokers – provided they tell the truth about their pot smoking. Does that mean that other life insurance policies can be invalidated by undeclared pot consumption?

#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.17 at 5:37 pm

Ottawa is fighting for gender parity. Trump is fighting for jobs. We’re pooched.

Careful Garth …..you might be reported to the “Gender Parity Police” for hate crimes
aka….telling the truth.

#19 SCM on 10.20.17 at 5:39 pm

Charlie Angus ripped Morneau a new one. He shoulda been NDP leader. I voted for him.

Charlie Angus on Bill Morneau attack on pensions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FO27Z7JN6o

#20 Welcome to Slurrey on 10.20.17 at 5:42 pm

Too many illegal suites in the lower mainland, with higher rents that just supports the real estate economy even more……………………. for those familiar with slurrey, look at clayton heights. City knows that the homes there have at least 2 suites, they tried to enforce it now they are back pedaling. 2 bedroom suite in Surrey/Langley generates minimum 1000 + a month. 12000 a year cash unclaimed added to your income………………… never heard of anyone getting audited for their rental suite income. Been in the community for 20+ years. When taking into account your rent vs buy comparison, see how much 2 suites adds to your calculation. Just my 2 suites…..I mean 2 cents.

#21 MF on 10.20.17 at 5:43 pm

“Remember – the banks wanted this rule change. It reduces their risk. They’ll get the paper cups ready just as quick as they can.”

-How is this possible?

Don’t banks, as lending institutions, want more people to owe money and pay interest to them? Isn’t a bigger loan going to give them bigger interest? Isn’t that part of what got us into this mess in the first place? The drive for ever higher profits?

I thought that was why we had the banks rolling over themselves to reduce their mortgage rates when the BoC stupidly cut rates in 2015 twice.

MF

#22 Stone on 10.20.17 at 5:44 pm

No one outside this blog except for one of my colleagues talking about B-20. You’ve got to wonder if anyone is even aware. BMO raised quite a few of their fixed rates today.

Too bad if there are no further rate hikes from th BoC for 2017. I was really looking forward to it. I can still hope though. Hope is still free. LOL

Well, on a positive note, portfolio is now up to 8.16% today YTD. Nice comeback for the end of the week. Yay!

#23 That's not fair on 10.20.17 at 5:50 pm

#1 Ponnaps on 10.20.17 at 5:13 pm

That was early…

Am I First!!!!!

———————

That’s a pretty mean spirited comment Garth! If this person is first, they must be trying to say that I’m last, that I’m not good enough, not pretty enough, that’s sexist, is it not?

#24 More Time on The Sidelines on 10.20.17 at 5:50 pm

Yes, there will be a rush of new buyers just like before every new federal measure was implemented.

And with the rush of new buyers, comes the spike in prices – until the mortgage pre-approval months expire.

So prices will pop in the major centers by at least 10% as supply is already limited (still waiting for the deluge of supply), which extends everyone’s wait time on the sidelines by at least a year as price declines are sticky on the way down…

Way to go OFSI – can you just implement things right away without giving notice…

#25 Victor V on 10.20.17 at 5:50 pm

Think you have until next year for new stress tests? Think again.

http://www.bnn.ca/think-you-have-until-next-year-for-new-stress-tests-think-again-1.890900

#26 TEMPLE on 10.20.17 at 5:56 pm

#16 Stone on 10.20.17 at 5:44 pm

Well, on a positive note, portfolio is now up to 8.16% today YTD. Nice comeback for the end of the week. Yay!

You understand that is failure, right? And that if you had simply been in a (practically) no-cost index ETF that you would be about 100% ahead of your YTD return at this point? Comeback? Not really. You are at risk of getting picked up by the sag wagon.

#27 Dolce Vita on 10.20.17 at 5:56 pm

Don’t get me wrong, I hope that B20 succeeds in preventing a crash; rather, a soft landing in RE. I think it will slow down the price appreciation and unit sales, worst case, a correction.

The > 20% downpayment crowd, 50% of them were near or at the LTV limit (barely scrape that amount together). But that also means 50% had more than that for a downpayment – to them +2% was inconsequential.

True, 32% fewer mortgages after the Oct. 2016 insured stress test, still, 68% passed it.

That still leaves enough qualified buyers to keep the RE market going, as in a slow down, maybe a correction.

I DO BELIEVE that you are correct to worry about the ECONOMY more than B20, in which the latter will be just another nail in the coffin.

Large job losses and little GDP growth, or worse, contracting in combination are what sink RE and have done in the past 3 crash/corrections in the early 80s, early 90s and Great Recession.

NAFTA, retail sector layoffs, oil prices stagnant and not enough for capital projects, auto under threat of being dismantled by NAFTA with 50% made in America and 85% N. American content that leaves Canada and Mexico with 35% between them (dairy and lumber to follow), exports decreasing for the past few months…

Still not a trend, some conjecture, but disheartening.

B20 will slow the RE juggernaut that it is in YVR and 416. High unemployment and a recessionary economy will indeed crash it, correct it at the very least. The next couple of quarters will decide its fate.

It has never been the “one thing” that crashes some part of the economy, it is a number of factors that does so. And, for now, they appear to be lining up towards that end.

#28 Victor V on 10.20.17 at 5:58 pm

905 SFHs continue imploding in October. DOM, prices and sales, both m/m and y/y, looking dreadful.

https://richmond-hill.listing.ca/detached-home-price-history.htm

https://markham.listing.ca/detached-home-price-history.htm

#29 oopswediditagain on 10.20.17 at 5:59 pm

The concern/hope that credit unions will pick up the slack might be premature in light of FICOM’s position on mortgage lending. It seems that in 2016 the provincial regulator was quite concerned about the risk associated with OSFI’s latest regulations. ” Credit unions should be aware that there is potential for these risks to transfer from FRFIs to other lenders.”

http://www.fic.gov.bc.ca/pdf/fid/correspondence/16-2017-LTR.pdf
“BC credit unions are concentrated in residential real estate lending. Given the heightened risks in the BC housing market, and the potential for transfer of risk from FRFIs to BC credit unions, FICOM will place greater attention on the residential mortgage portfolios and associated risk management practices of BC credit unions; in particular, heightened attention will be paid to income verification and third party mortgage originations.”

#30 Dolce Vita on 10.20.17 at 6:00 pm

#20 Welcome to Slurrey

Add 1 to your audit and fined list, from you ‘hood:

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/surrey-man-sentenced-fined-for-real-estate-income-tax-evasion

True, they are rare. The article points out the last time CRA did this, for unreported rental income, was 2010.

#31 Millennial Realist on 10.20.17 at 6:03 pm

No escape …….for the coming reality, Boomers.

Here’s the second country THIS MONTH that is now being governed by the new generation, a 37 year old PM.

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2017/10/20/political-star-jacinda-ardern-gets-set-to-govern-new-zealand.html

Boomers, how you behave in the next 2-5 years in terms of tax fairness will seal the deal on your fate.

Continue to act selfishly, demanding preferential treatment for your money like precious little snowflakes, then you are toast politically and economically.

What the Liberals have done so far is barely a test flight for what lies ahead.

No Boomer will be the head of any major country within about 5 years.

Thank you for your service.

Now, please, get out of the way.

#32 Stone on 10.20.17 at 6:08 pm

#21 MF on 10.20.17 at 5:43 pm
“Remember – the banks wanted this rule change. It reduces their risk. They’ll get the paper cups ready just as quick as they can.”

-How is this possible?

Don’t banks, as lending institutions, want more people to owe money and pay interest to them? Isn’t a bigger loan going to give them bigger interest? Isn’t that part of what got us into this mess in the first place? The drive for ever higher profits?

I thought that was why we had the banks rolling over themselves to reduce their mortgage rates when the BoC stupidly cut rates in 2015 twice.

MF

——

That is true however they spread their risk with issuing more individual loans with stricter guidelines. The best part for the banks is that many people are addicted to using credit and then are unable to move to another bank later because they’ve racked up too much non mortgage debt. That is when the trap is sprung. Mortgage comes up for renewal, customer demands a deep discount. Bank then says, nope, you can pay posted. And then customer does. At that stage, bank rubs its tummy and says all is right with world. And for the bank, it is. Make sure banks form part of your balanced and diversified portfolio.

#33 Dolce Vita on 10.20.17 at 6:12 pm

#16 Dave

CU capitalization is not huge.

Last year over $80 billion in residential mortgages.

VanCity, the largest Cdn. CU has a total capitalization of $21 billion and $12 billion in total mortgages having added $720 million in new mortgage last year.

$720 million / $80 billion = 1% of the total market.

All of them added together account for 15% of all residential mortgages as of Aug. 2017:

http://credit.bankofcanada.ca/householdcredit

Now, if you were a CU with limited capitalization for mortgages, would you take on the B20 Rejects from the Chartered Banks?

Unlikely.

#34 Smartalox on 10.20.17 at 6:14 pm

@JCM:

Stay where you are as long as you can, especially if you’re planning to have children. They don’t need much space early on, and they bring on a whole load of changes. Take your time. See how having a kid or two affects your income, and ability to pay down a mortgage. Especially if you have to factor in child care, or a loss of income if one of you decides to stop working, in order to take care of the kids.

Meanwhile, if the B20 stress test takes some of the competition out of the market, so be it.

Everybody buys a home based on how they lived before kids. Wait until you have them, then start shopping for a place and you’ll have a better sense of the things you want in a home, and the things that you don’t.

#35 dakkie on 10.20.17 at 6:14 pm

Canada’s Hunt For Taxes Turns on Minimum Wage Earners
http://investmentwatchblog.com/canadas-hunt-for-taxes-turns-on-minimum-wage-earners/

#36 Wishtherewasanhonestrealtor on 10.20.17 at 6:16 pm

I’ve never commented before, and I know I’ll get flak for this, but I’m a moister who, for the past 6 months has considered buying a condo in downtown Toronto. I haven’t bought of course, and instead have been stuffing my TFSA and learning how to build a portfolio but the temptation to buy a place, for me at least, is sometimes there. I’ve gone so far as hiring a realtor.

I asked the other day for the realtors opinion on the B20, and the answer I got was a mix of, you better buy now, otherwise you’ll be competing with even more people in your price range as their qualifying mortgage amount drops and the new mortgage rules will have no effect on condos in Toronto, they’ll keep increasing. I’ve been told, more than once, that any expectation that condo prices in Toronto will soften is a pipe dream.

The newest trick I’ve seen in the GTA is listing a unit in the morning for $100-150k below their asking price, then re-listing it in the afternoon once they’ve got a slew of bookings and calling the first listing a mistake (I’ve had 5 such listings pop up this week), that or the classic list it for $150k under what they expect and hope to drive a bidding war. To me this seems like unethical behaviour, but my realtor sees it as a legitimate sales strategy.

As a potential first time homebuyer, it’s been hard to make out truth through all the static. The sad thing is the amount of people falling for this schtick, but I get it, it’s hard to know who to trust. Luckily for me, this blog has been an oasis of logic in a sea of nonsense.

#37 Stone on 10.20.17 at 6:17 pm

#26 TEMPLE on 10.20.17 at 5:56 pm
#16 Stone on 10.20.17 at 5:44 pm

Well, on a positive note, portfolio is now up to 8.16% today YTD. Nice comeback for the end of the week. Yay!

You understand that is failure, right? And that if you had simply been in a (practically) no-cost index ETF that you would be about 100% ahead of your YTD return at this point? Comeback? Not really. You are at risk of getting picked up by the sag wagon.

——

Actually, if you can make over 16% on a balanced and diversified portfolio of ETFs, that is wonderful. Mind sharing how that would be done so we can all enrich ourselves? Portfolio mix and actual ETFs would be appreciated. I think Garth would also like to know. He might want you to manage his money.

#38 Reximus on 10.20.17 at 6:18 pm

“Remember – the banks wanted this rule change. It reduces their risk.”

Why didn’t they just do it themselves, without this dumb intervention move?

Competition. ~ Garth

#39 loopholes don't exist on 10.20.17 at 6:19 pm

re #16

That credit union loop hole is huge and yet simple. Govt need to get on this asap or business as usual.

*****************

If anything puts the big 5 at a disadvantage, it will take less than a NY minute to fix.

You can take that to the bank – literally.

#40 SilverSon on 10.20.17 at 6:20 pm

#9 Crazy millennial on 10.20.17 at 5:25 pm

Wow, that’s optimistic and naive. If your buddy finds a better rate at another bank, he would have to pass the +2 point stress test and prove that he has >20% equity on a reduced appraisal in order to switch. Sure he might say he can do that, but what his house appraises at is not up to him. Also 30 years is a long time and things change. Kids, better job opportunities, job losses … his statements are pretty bold. Then again bold statements are a millennial thing so I suppose they’re apt in this case.

You know, all this stuff kinda makes me wonder if the banks are going to tweak up their interest rates an extra 1 to 1.5 points simply because they know their customers would have to qualify for 2 extra points in addition to having >20% equity on the depreciated appraisal in order to switch. Good thing banks aren’t looking for ways to replace the income they’re going to lose as a result of B20. Oh wait a minute … they are.

#41 SCM on 10.20.17 at 6:20 pm

Toronto couple takes up #vanlife as a way around skyrocketing rents
https://www.thestar.com/life/2017/10/20/escaping-torontos-rental-crisis-with-vanlife.html

The sh*t lifestyle you gotta put up with this country. Yeah vanlife is great down in the States, not so much in Canada during -20 winters. God what a joke.

Dolce Vita I’m coming soon

#lastwinterintoronto

#42 Penny Henny on 10.20.17 at 6:21 pm

Oil is mired at fifty bucks. GDP growth is waning. Sears is firing. Trade numbers are weaker. So are retail sales. Real estate is wobbling. But mostly the worry is about NAFTA. That trade deal with the US directly impacts a quarter of the entire economy and millions of jobs. By all accounts, the talks suck. Ottawa is fighting for gender parity. Trump is fighting for jobs. We’re pooched.

//////////////////

Sorry Doug, Sorry Ryan. The boss has thrown you under the bus for going heavy on Maple.

Hardly. Canadian equities pose considerable value. – Garth

#43 oncebittwiceshy on 10.20.17 at 6:22 pm

Dolce Vita, the most interesting part of this article is the fact this guy owns 10 homes in Surrey. How many “investors” are doing this in British Columbia. The “Chinese investor” is nothing compared to your average local trying to get rich on Real Estate!

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/surrey-man-sentenced-fined-for-real-estate-income-tax-evasion

“B.C. title documents show that Dhudwal currently owns 10 properties in Surrey, valued at $8.8 million in total. In various mortgage documents for these homes, Dhudwal lists his occupation as “self-employed” and also “janitorial,” as well as “sawmill worker.”

The B20 will wipe out every single one of these “investors” and the “crash” will be epic.

#44 RIP Gord Downie on 10.20.17 at 6:26 pm

There really is no way this guarantees “we are pooched.” This market shows tremendous resistance to reality. People are DYING to get their hands on more Canadian real estate. They will find a way to get more of it. We aren’t officially pooched until the taxpayers are bailing out banks for their losses on foreclosed homes.

The scumbags who weren’t with their weight in salt before this housing frenzy will return to their worthless state, and the rest of us will be poorer. That’s the way these incredulous bubbles work. No one gets out alive.

#45 Ian on 10.20.17 at 6:28 pm

I completely disagree with the BoC here. This is absolutely ridiculous.

Why go on such an aggressive rate rising path taking the overnight rate to a whopping 1% and then stop? What the f is that? The GDP print in Q2 has more than enough strength to keep raising.

Now it also looks (although we certainly don’t know yet) that the next Fed person will be dovish. Trump campaigned on saying the stock market is a bubble (which it is), but now keeps tweeting about record highs, so guess what? He’s staked his future on low rates. So now no one will deal with this ridiculous bubble until it finally implodes and causes a currency crisis. By the way, the latest US print on import / export inflation this week was VERY high (sorry Mark).

This is a disaster for Canada. All this will do is encourage people to take on more debt. Absolutely ridiculous. BoC could do another 1% EASILY.

#46 Lost....but not leased on 10.20.17 at 6:28 pm

Re: Trump

Love him or hate him,he may be attuned to mistakes in history…

It appears he realizes Free Trade is the big flushing sound Ross Perot warned of.

Sure, Trumps moves may send a shock wave through the global economy, but the path we are currently on is oblivion.

There are numerous examples in history on how to do it right, but unfortunately, the Banksters took issue and sent their armed proxies in.

#47 SilverSon on 10.20.17 at 6:34 pm

#21 MF on 10.20.17 at 5:43 pm

Banks can get just as much money by charging higher interest on smaller mortgages as they would get by charging lower interest on larger mortgages. And they have less exposure when the interest is higher and the mortgage is smaller. Because the stress test adds 2% is triggered when switching banks, there’s nothing stopping banks from adding 1% – 1.5% to existing mortgage holders because they know how difficult (or impossible) it would be for those mortgage holders to switch banks. Furthermore, anyone who won’t have 20% equity in their particleboard palace based on a reduced appraisal amount won’t be able to switch banks. Don’t forget … Canadian banks NEVER lose.

#48 Dolce Vita on 10.20.17 at 6:40 pm

#32 oncebittwiceshy

I hate to say this, but I hope you are correct (about suffrage). As I have posted here before, I despise tax cheats, unconditionally.

But even Dhudwal would not suffer under B20 if he already has existing mortgages and renews them with the same bank.

It is when he changes bank or applies for a new mortgage that he may suffer under B20.

I cited that article because it had some tongue and cheek humor as in his various stated occupations, which you picked up on:

“self-employed” and also “janitorial,” as well as “sawmill worker.”

Of course, those occupations allowed him to save enough to buy $8.8 million in total properties (not paying income tax helps).

You can’t make this stuff up any better than that.

#49 Dan.t on 10.20.17 at 6:47 pm

#31 oncebittwiceshy on 10.20.17 at 6:22 pm
Dolce Vita, the most interesting part of this article is the fact this guy owns 10 homes in Surrey. How many “investors” are doing this in British Columbia. The “Chinese investor” is nothing compared to your average local trying to get rich on Real Estate!

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/surrey-man-sentenced-fined-for-real-estate-income-tax-evasion

“B.C. title documents show that Dhudwal currently owns 10 properties in Surrey, valued at $8.8 million in total. In various mortgage documents for these homes, Dhudwal lists his occupation as “self-employed” and also “janitorial,” as well as “sawmill worker.”

The B20 will wipe out every single one of these “investors” and the “crash” will be epic.

———————————

I have made reference to this numerous time before. So many people in BC have multiple properties bought with zero money down, leveraged at the right time and DO NOT claim rental incomes. It is full tax evasion but CRA would rather drill the poor sucker who made a few bucks in the stock market that go after the amateur landlords who rent out their condos, basements, etc and don’t claim the 1500$ a month rent.

CRA will crack down on that 400 capital gain you didn’t claim , but leave the $18000 tax free rental income alone because, well, it’s real estate, and it’s BC and everyone is doing it I guess, so it must be ok.

When I was visiting BC, I heard it directly a couple times and indirectly even more…”do you claim the rental income?”
“no but, well, don’t say anything, everyone does it”……That was a true conversation.

The fraud, and lies, and Realtors criminal activity, FOMO marketing, shadow flipping and Casino money laundering, selling units overseas before selling to locals, real estate criminality, non declared rentals, everything and anything goes in BC real estate, so don’t hold your breath for a correction unless something gets enforced.

Enforcement for any infraction above means getting slapped in the face with a pink fluffy mitten. Who gives a darn and you wonder why BC is still insane.

Hope it changes but will believe it when I see it.

#50 Dolce Vita on 10.20.17 at 6:48 pm

#46 Lost….but not leased

Actually, it was “a giant sucking sound going down South”, 1:55 point:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rkgx1C_S6ls

#51 DON on 10.20.17 at 6:49 pm

#20 Welcome to Slurrey on 10.20.17 at 5:42 pm

Too many illegal suites in the lower mainland, with higher rents that just supports the real estate economy even more……………………. for those familiar with slurrey, look at clayton heights. City knows that the homes there have at least 2 suites, they tried to enforce it now they are back pedaling. 2 bedroom suite in Surrey/Langley generates minimum 1000 + a month. 12000 a year cash unclaimed added to your income………………… never heard of anyone getting audited for their rental suite income. Been in the community for 20+ years. When taking into account your rent vs buy comparison, see how much 2 suites adds to your calculation. Just my 2 suites…..I mean 2 cents.

*********************

Well… the CRA is active in BC now and the media stories are pointing the way. I bet they would be more than willing to go after home owners who are not declaring rental income. Would make up for the small business tax fiasco. Shift happens and usually fast.

#52 Lost....but not leased on 10.20.17 at 6:54 pm

#30… Dolce Vita

THE TYEE reports the BC NDP Gov’t will not touch the First time Buyers Program(loans for approx.$37,500…..interest free for 5 years…. prices up to $750,000…)but may deal with the broader housing issue in the Spring 2018 Budget.

Apparently around 1400 people have used the program, around 1200 more have applied.

I had also read that CRA had approx. 80 auditors focussed on the BC pre- sale market.

The message is, whether it be from Feds, Provincial Gov’ts ,local gov’ts..or CRA…walk softly and no stick whatsoever will be applied.

#53 JustMe on 10.20.17 at 6:58 pm

#42 Penny Henny

Sorry Doug, Sorry Ryan. The boss has thrown you under the bus for going heavy on Maple.

Hardly. Canadian equities pose considerable value. – Garth
____________________________________________

I used to wonder how to measure value by country or region. Then I found this:

http://media.rbcgam.com/pdf/gam/global-investment-outlook.pdf

The regional outlook for Canada is on page 62. See the Normalized earnings and valuations graph. A comparison of all regions is on page 45.

#54 dr. talc on 10.20.17 at 6:59 pm

Can we please have a moratorium, no pun intended, on
-RIP Gord Downey?

People, in case you didn’t notice, the recording industry was replaced by laptops and the record industry was replaced by smartphones: there is no place for ‘singing dinosaurs’
So, they fake their deaths to grab some cash on the way to retirement. A list of some celebrity deaths:
Michael Jackson- fake
Leon Russell- legit
Leonard Cohen- fake
Glen Frey- fake
Glenn Campbell- legit
Prince- fake
Bowie- fake
Lemmy- legit
Tom Petty- fake
Gord Downey-fake
Walter Becker-fake
Gregg Allman-legit
Chris Cornell-fake

politics:
James Flaherty- legit
Rob Ford- fake

celebs:
Joan Rivers- fake
hef-legit

#55 TEMPLE on 10.20.17 at 7:00 pm

#37 Stone on 10.20.17 at 6:17 pm

Actually, if you can make over 16% on a balanced and diversified portfolio of ETFs, that is wonderful. Mind sharing how that would be done so we can all enrich ourselves? Portfolio mix and actual ETFs would be appreciated. I think Garth would also like to know. He might want you to manage his money.

Don’t blame me if your investing “strategy” is designed around preventing you from making rookie mistakes at the slightest whiff of a downturn. I’ve already pointed out how someone could have doubled your year-to-date returns with a single, effortless transaction, and with practically no cost. Don’t you think the 500 largest companies in the US are diversified?

#56 Mike on 10.20.17 at 7:00 pm

Jan 1 – OSFI test kicks in
Jan 2 2017-Jan 2 2018 – Credit unions sustain the party
Jan 3 2018 – OSFI retracts

…Party continues. Rich Canadians, eh.

#57 wallflower on 10.20.17 at 7:04 pm

I saw this chart of space debris (page 4) and immediately thought, “Why, that looks like the real estate bubble in Canada and Shanghai!”
https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/636897main_Gregory_Presentation.pdf
So, I am looking forward to some changes in those stratospheric lines. Enough already, with crazy real estate numbers.

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.17 at 7:04 pm

@#31 Millenial Surrealist

I posted a similar link two days ago about the new minority govt in New Zealand with the latest neophyte at the helm.
She was elected because she had zero political baggage……kinda like Trump…
A one term wonder, just like Trudeau, Macron, the Austrian PM and now Kiwiland.
Voter frustration. Nothing more.

Oh and the international markets reacted to the Kiwi election by tanking the Kiwi buck

Try and keep up….
It

#59 Doug t on 10.20.17 at 7:04 pm

Titanic meet iceberg

RATM

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.17 at 7:05 pm

@#14 SCM

“That’ll be all for today. I’m busy.”

++++++

Packing?

#61 Goldie on 10.20.17 at 7:07 pm

“Ottawa is fighting for gender parity. Trump is fighting for jobs. We’re pooched…”

Ain’t that that truth…

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.17 at 7:08 pm

@#41 SCM

All done Packing?

#63 Asterix1 on 10.20.17 at 7:08 pm

#9 Crazy millennial on 10.20.17 at 5:25 pm
Spoke to a buddy of mine who recently bought a home about these changes and what they might mean for him and his finances. His response was simply, I don’t care cause we (wife and kids) are staying at this place for next 30 years. Let them stress test they’re brains out! So in not sure these b20 changes well affect the market much. People have no interest in selling their homes…..
————————————–

– What do you think will happen if your friend and wife get a divorce?
– One or both lose their jobs.
– Another kid, house too small.
– Job opportunity in another city/country.
– Lots of other factors……..

If your friend is happy paying at the top of the bubble with prices heading south. Enjoy…

PS: Of course B20 will affect the market!

#64 Dolce Vita on 10.20.17 at 7:09 pm

#52 Lost….but not leased

Yup. That says it all.

I think CRA is trying with a few showcase busts but nobody wants to be blamed for crashing the YVR RE market in Govt. yet they all promise to make it affordable.

Even Horgan has said as much that he does not want to take any actions that would in essence break the YVR Boomer RE nest egg, and I suspect, including his own.

The NDP/Greens talked a good election story about making RE affordable and have delivered NOTHING while watching the rest of the population indebt itself for a life time of financial servitude to a bank.

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.17 at 7:15 pm

Folks.
I have a new name for Screwed Canadian Millenial.
aka SCM

“Hate envy and ridiculous Moaning empowers” ……
or
“Hear Me” for short.

We’ll all vote on it and get back to you SCM

#66 For those about to flop... on 10.20.17 at 7:15 pm

5:23 pm
Flop…. check this…. 5255 4 ave delta bc
Bought June 25 2016 for 1.175mill
Sold sept 28,2017 for 1.153mill; assessed at 1.264
Still too rich for my blood but speaks to declines in any profits….considering fees paid I assume you would consider this a confirmed case? I can only see things getting cheaper in the long run. Wishful thinking maybe lol

///////////////////

Hey Whip2 ,nice work.

I will tie up all the loose ends when I get a chance.

Your name will be in with the file and I use that to give credit for the assistance because I can show a little as to what is going on ,but I only have a cheap torch with worn out batteries,trying to shine a light on one of the most out of control real estate markets in the world.

The more torches the brighter the light and then more people can see the ugly stuff I see each day at work and with my study.

To your question as to when do I confirm it ,I wait until bc assessment does their thing and then present it with all the evidence as CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

Usually takes 3/4 months, which is why I try to get some side action when my wife is not looking with some realtors on here…

M43BC

#67 DON on 10.20.17 at 7:18 pm

#40 SilverSon on 10.20.17 at 6:20 pm

#9 Crazy millennial on 10.20.17 at 5:25 pm

Wow, that’s optimistic and naive. If your buddy finds a better rate at another bank, he would have to pass the +2 point stress test and prove that he has >20% equity on a reduced appraisal in order to switch. Sure he might say he can do that, but what his house appraises at is not up to him. Also 30 years is a long time and things change. Kids, better job opportunities, job losses … his statements are pretty bold. Then again bold statements are a millennial thing so I suppose they’re apt in this case.

You know, all this stuff kinda makes me wonder if the banks are going to tweak up their interest rates an extra 1 to 1.5 points simply because they know their customers would have to qualify for 2 extra points in addition to having >20% equity on the depreciated appraisal in order to switch. Good thing banks aren’t looking for ways to replace the income they’re going to lose as a result of B20. Oh wait a minute … they are.

****************

Well put!

#68 John on 10.20.17 at 7:20 pm

Charges laid in BC money laundering:

http://vancouversun.com/news/national/charges-laid-in-probe-of-alleged-b-c-drug-cash-money-laundering

What did Rich Coleman know?
Why did former Liberal finance minister Mike Dejohng–the guy who owns 8 investment properties try to bury this report? And there is no money being laundered in BC real estate right Garth? lol

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.17 at 7:20 pm

@#290 Dissent
“Boo hoo. Old fart who can’t relate to today’s women. This ain’t 1950….
++++++

June Cleaver?
Are you nuts?

#70 conan on 10.20.17 at 7:20 pm

Don’t think Morneau is going anywhere. Blind trust, and he is selling all of his family company shares. That is a big time commitment.

#71 MF on 10.20.17 at 7:23 pm

SilverSon on 10.20.17 at 6:

Awesome response. Thank you!

MF.

#72 LivinLarge on 10.20.17 at 7:26 pm

While the “competition” idea certainly makes logical sense, it really isn’t how bank mortgage depts actually operate. One bank will very rarely approve a mortgage once the see that the borrower has already been declined by another of the big 5. None of the underwriters ever want to buy a deal already declined by another bank for fear the other bank saw a problem or risk they didn’t see. Simply a CYA mentality.

And the general payment / affordability guidlines are 99.999% the same between banks on any given day unless one bank has a bunch of coin that they need to place out quickly so, banks really don’t actively compete with any other of the 5 sisters. It isn’t actually a conspiracy but the results are the same as if it were.

#73 DON on 10.20.17 at 7:29 pm

#30… Dolce Vita

Anyone who follows domestic and international news sees the writing on the wall. Garth speaks of the next 10 weeks (more bad news) just before the Christmas season. NAFTA – things are on hold, Trump protecting jobs at home. The sentiment around NAFTA is enough to pause big retail purchases in households and businesses.

Millens – time to use those phones and do your research before settling for a life time achievement reward in big debt – just to own a particle board POS. Why pay for the boomers retirement?

#74 Bob on 10.20.17 at 7:36 pm

“Ottawa is fighting for gender parity. Trump is fighting for jobs. We’re pooched.”
____________________________________________

We sure are….

#75 Doghouse Dweller on 10.20.17 at 7:37 pm

#45 Ian
the next Fed person will be dovish.
==========================
All this tuff talk has been just that , talk, 1% woop dee do. Burman called it back in May

http://www.bnn.ca/larry-berman-the-liquidity-trap-can-interest-rates-normalize-1.739527

Chris Whalen, Whalen Global Advisers
” So I think people have to realize that the weight of debt, and also the posture of all the major central banks, is such that low interest rates are going to be with us for a while. And until you see a change in demand so that treasury auctions are not as successful and yields in fact have to rise to attract investors, I really don’t see that changing.””

#76 Linda on 10.20.17 at 7:39 pm

Regarding ‘the Donald’ I’d say the only opinion he cares about is his own. Regarding Moreau, resign already. Regarding the new bank rules, here is hoping that those who intend to purchase hold off for say 3-6 months to allow housing prices to adjust to the new reality. Everyone loves a bargain, so maybe they won’t rush in liked suicidal lemmings to buy before the new rules apply.

#77 Canucksrock on 10.20.17 at 7:39 pm

Hi Garth, I’m located in vancover. 2 of my neighbours have air bnb’s and brag about not paying tax on the money they are charging. Will the government go after air bnb cheaters?
Thanks
CR

#78 Lost...but not leased on 10.20.17 at 7:40 pm

#50 Dolce Vita

A couple of anecdotes

Around that time..mid 1990’s….we went to meet an investment advisor at our local Credit Union.

He was citing Mexico and what a great opportunity it was to invest there as its economy, via the North American Trade agreements…was on the upswing.

Not to long after, in BC…I met a couple of Mexican professionals..one was a Lawyer the other an Engineer..who had both come to BC looking for work..any work..as the Mexican currency and subsequent economy tanked.

In other words..the trade deals were a scam…moreso for Mexico.

#79 wicked as it seems on 10.20.17 at 7:46 pm

#6 SCM on 10.20.17 at 5:24 pm
I know what will get the economy going! $10k TFSAs!!! NOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

I disagree, 10K tfsa would rejuvenate retirement savings, period!

#80 Overheardyou on 10.20.17 at 7:49 pm

#11 SCM on 10.20.17 at 5:27 pm
I don’t understand why boomers and conservatives hate Bill Morneau so much. I really don’t.

He embodies their core values and principles.

Getting rich in the private sector off screwing over the little guy.

He sounds like your kinda guy. If he was on the blue team instead of the red team, you guys would love him.

Talk about being brainwashed. I wish I could do the same as you

#9 Crazy millennial on 10.20.17 at 5:25 pm
Spoke to a buddy of mine who recently bought a home about these changes and what they might mean for him and his finances. His response was simply, I don’t care cause we (wife and kids) are staying at this place for next 30 years. Let them stress test they’re brains out! So in not sure these b20 changes well affect the market much. People have no interest in selling their homes and if worst comes to worst they don’t mind renting out the basement.

Guess you’re just as lost as the other Millenials. Look up what happens when you owe more than what your house is worth. Good luck renewing then.

#81 Goldman on NAFTA on 10.20.17 at 7:51 pm

With NAFTA negotiations going badly, Goldman Sachs has published a report, “Thoughts on the Potential US Withdrawal from NAFTA”, that concludes that the US is likely to withdraw from the trade agreement next year “At this point, efforts at revising the agreement look likely to be unsuccessful, though a deal is still possible, in our view. If the talks do not result in a revised agreement by early 2018, we believe that the Trump Administration could announce its intent to withdraw from NAFTA.”

#82 Mike in Toronto on 10.20.17 at 7:55 pm

#41 SCM

Vacancy rates are 10 to 18 times easier now than they were in the late 90s.

Young people didn’t get offered a lease at Trinity Bellwoods, at ANY price. They instead moved to Scarborough or Etobicoke.

And there was no wireless Internet.

#83 mike from mtl on 10.20.17 at 7:56 pm

So, no hike Wednesday morning. None until early 2018

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Exactly, didn’t (we) already say the last two hikes were to save face off the last two cuts. Nothing more than to give room to cut again. The last bull crap about 4% inflation was as usual a total excuse & fabrication to bring back 2015 levels.

NAFTA will be done, guaranteed, rates cut back down to 0.5 easy. Housing unwinding as I would have thought seriously grinds down any ‘consumer activity’.

Total BS du jour.

#84 Fuzzy Camel on 10.20.17 at 7:58 pm

Went long USDCAD, already up 2%.
Also went long UDOW, up another 2% on top of that.

CAD is going down, expect a major rally in the USD once Trump passes his Tax Reform.

Dump everything but US stocks. US is going to experience a stock market rally like we’ve never seen shortly.

The Fed is going to hike rates to contain the inflation, expect monthly rate hikes after the Tax Reform.

Here is the rub, when the USD rallies, and rates start rapidly going up, all those Trillions in loans around the world will start going bad. While the US stock market goes parabolic, more so, countries around the globe will start to default en masse.

US will be the last to fall. Make sure you have your $$ into gold before banks start closing, could be late next year or 2019, I’m horrible at timing.

#85 Dmitry on 10.20.17 at 8:00 pm

#6 SCM

And you’ll be the one paying these higher wages to working people, right?

#11 SCM

What an idiotic comment!
Did not expect anything else from trolling clown.

Go to the Norway finally and join Norwegian trolls.
Maybe they’ll teach you a thing!

#86 iwill on 10.20.17 at 8:00 pm

Garth – the stress test rules wont have a great an impact as you think. Why? Because no one takes the max mortgage anyway.

#87 Old Ron on 10.20.17 at 8:04 pm

Real Estate market is chugging along. Reminds me a bit of about 2007. Steady volume but if your price it crazy high the property is going to sit there for a long while.

Lots of agents talking about throwing in the towel on June 30 when the annual TREB dues are payable. Not enough sales to feed 48,000 agents that is for sure. Grab a Public Sector job if you can kids, and by 2042 you can collect the pension.

#88 Ronaldo on 10.20.17 at 8:07 pm

#6 SCM on 10.20.17 at 5:24 pm

How about higher wages for workers?
———————————————————–
Talk to their unions about that.

#89 No Bank of Canada rate increase on 10.20.17 at 8:08 pm

delusions of grandeur Canada

slow it down

#90 Ronaldo on 10.20.17 at 8:10 pm

#11 SCM on 10.20.17 at 5:27 pm

I don’t understand why boomers and conservatives hate Bill Morneau so much. I really don’t.
———————————————————
You just don’t give up do you? Imposter.

#91 conan on 10.20.17 at 8:11 pm

#54 dr. talc on 10.20.17 at 6:59 pm

Maximum, tin foil hat alert, for your post. Rob Ford would need to wear a burka 24-7.

https://youtu.be/F_kLzbWyvWQ?t=20

#92 oopswediditagain on 10.20.17 at 8:14 pm

Yea, Credit Unions will not be taking up the slack after the B20 legislation comes through.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/3465967

Collectively Canada’s 278 credit unions generate over $6.5 billion in economic impact, are leaders in small business lending, and have assets of over $205.3 billion.

https://www.relbanks.com/rankings/top-banks-in-canada

By comparison, a bank is a corporation that’s owned by its shareholders. In 2017 the big 5 banks had combined assets over $5 trillion.

Oh, by the way any Credit Union that goes national is covered by OSFI.

https://www.cujournal.com/articles/canadas-biggest-credit-union-looks-to-go-national

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/osfi-bsif/Pages/hst.aspx
Federal credit unions
Over the past few years, significant consolidation occurred with the ten largest credit unions representing about 40 per cent of system assets. Until 2016, credit unions were regulated exclusively by the provinces.

To promote the continued growth and competitiveness of the sector and enhance financial stability, the federal government introduced amendments to the Bank Act and other federal acts to enable credit unions to incorporate and continue federally. The legislative model was based on the framework applicable to banks. The model wove in unique cooperative elements for federal credit unions and established transitional elements to facilitate the migration of credit unions to federal jurisdiction and subject to OSFI’s regulation.

#93 MF on 10.20.17 at 8:19 pm

32 Stone

Just saw this solid response too. Thanks Stone.

MF

#94 For those about to flop... on 10.20.17 at 8:21 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Surrey.

I wrote a post in the last day or two noting the urgency in the frequency in the price reductions and as I started my weekly review I noticed these guys had only waited 8 days to slash the price again.

After taking 30k off on October 8th ,8 days later they took another 19k off besides not getting a sale maybe just to get it under the mental hurdle of 900k.

Anyway this is a townhome,which has been underrepresented in my study and after paying 897k they will be lucky to break even after expenses.

It is only assessed at 662 which might as well be 666 because it appears they danced with the devil…

M43BC

16 16261 23a Avenue, Surrey paid 897 ass662 T.h now asking 899

Jul 8:$948,000
Oct 8: $918,000
Change: – 30000.00 -3%

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/16261-23a-avenue/16

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBZWTdOOQ==

#95 jess on 10.20.17 at 8:25 pm

hypocrite

In a speech to the European Parliament Farage once actually criticised offshore tax funds, even naming the Isle of Man as a location where many are based.
Nigel Farage tried to avoid tax by setting up an offshore trust fund, an investigation has revealed.

The former Ukip leader admitted to the fund after an investigation by the Mirror discovered the scheme on the Isle of Man.
http://metro.co.uk/2017/10/20/nigel-farage-admits-trying-to-avoid-tax-with-offshore-fund-7014373/

=================

The FCA report on Rio Tinto shows significant failures of accounting. Why are auditors PwC not in the dock? (20 Oct 2017)
Rio Tinto, Former Top Executives Charged With Fraud
Worldwide Mining Company Alleged to Have Inflated Asset Values

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2017-196

Washington D.C., Oct. 17, 2017—

The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged mining company Rio Tinto and two former top executives with fraud for inflating the value of coal assets acquired for $3.7 billion and sold a few years later for $50 million.
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2017-196
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/final-notices/rio-tinto-plc-2017.pdf

#96 PastThePeak on 10.20.17 at 8:26 pm

Everybody here that thinks the worst is over for housing, especially in the GTA, is right. The soft landing has already happened and prices are rising again. This B20 rule won’t do anything the other measures have. The fundamentals of housing are too strong.

Toronto is a world class city where the housing is less expensive than London, New York, or Hong Kong. There is a lot of room to grow. Now that prices are rising again the buyers will come back with confidence that what they purchase now will increase in value. Thus they can afford a high mortgage as they know their wealth will increase. In a couple of years, with a good 20-30% increase in value, they can either consider leveraging up or take out some value in the form of a HELOC (you have to enjoy life while you can, so take advantage of a little of your wealth increase).

Anybody who holds back from buying on this dip is a fool! Do want to be the one who looks back in 5 years and realizes that housing has doubled and you are still renting.? Housing in the GTA will never decline for more than a few months. Buy before it is too late!

#97 MSM-Free Zone on 10.20.17 at 8:29 pm

“…..Giving notice that NAFTA is dead would be no stretch since the guy doesn’t actually care what anybody (who didn’t vote for him) thinks…..”
________________________________

Given that he threw his own voter base under the health care bus as well, it’s clear the President of the Alternative Facts of America doesn’t care what they think either.

#98 oopswediditagain on 10.20.17 at 8:29 pm

Dolce Vita: “But even Dhudwal would not suffer under B20 if he already has existing mortgages and renews them with the same bank.”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Dolce, he will absolutely suffer when those properties drop signigicantly in price and he has to come up with the difference upon renewal.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Mike on 10.20.17 at 7:00 pm
Jan 1 – OSFI test kicks in
Jan 2 2017-Jan 2 2018 – Credit unions sustain the party
Jan 3 2018 – OSFI retracts …Party continues. Rich Canadians, eh.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Well, considering Canada's largest credit union is two weeks away from OSFI's regulation. NOPE, Mikey doesn't like it.

http://www.fic.gov.bc.ca/pdf/fid/decisions/NOD-CU-20170814.pdf

#99 Lost...but not leased on 10.20.17 at 8:31 pm

#20 Welcome to Slurrey…..

Suites in homes…another CRA ticking time bomb…

My olde understanding is that there were walls of privacy, whereby various gov’t depts could not share information. Nowadays????

In conversations with our accountant (C.A.), a rental suite can be a major problem with CRA

The Surrey example could be a juicy one for CRA. Surrey bylaws allow suites subject to license
(approx. $600).

The specific neighbourhood Clayton Heights..is not some inner city area with scattered suites and more discrete,but a newer development that apparently has a high density of suites aka” mortgage helpers.”…(one may as well have big red flag out front to CRA?!? ).

So..Clayton heights is a NEWER development that has (i) City Licensed Suites
and according to the media more
(ii)UNlicensed aka illegal suites.
The total may exceed 300….

NOW, CRA will likely get involved and this will get REAL ugly.

If people bought these homes, with a suite they rented out..and try to sell …their primary residence capital gains exemption will take a big hit.

Having a suite..legal or illegal…has implications as far as CRA is involved.(Maybe Garth could elaborate) .

I recall our favourite financial blogger G.T. a while back said CRA has the rules and tools at its disposal for audits re RE……the trigger is a combination of political will and odds of successful prosecution.(Forget the Turdeau and Moroneau newer attacks on Small Businesses…when these more latent matters stand out like a sore thumb.)

In this case CRA may have no choice.

Who to blame ??? …. rather long list…but a classic interjurisdictional Tsunami when all level of Gov’ts and their bureaucratic fiefdoms interlock and overlap.

PS..from what I see..I would avoid Clayton Heights and similar areas..it will be toxic RE for a while.

#100 Ronaldo on 10.20.17 at 8:31 pm

#13 JCM

”Thoughts? Should we try to scoop a deal in the Spring of 2018? Should we wait for 2019?”
——————————————————————
Predictions on housing have been wrong now for going on 9 years as well as with interest rates. I have personally decided that nobody can tell you what the market will do tomorrow, 6 months from now or 10 years from now. There are many other places in Canada where prices for housing is far cheaper than Vancouver and Toronto and with half the salaries you are making you could have a very nice home and a good standard of living. I don’t know why people are so hung up on living in these places when there are so many better places to live. Just my opinion.

#101 MF on 10.20.17 at 8:31 pm

45 Ian on 10.20.17 at 6:28 pm

Yup. The BoC policy has been a complete failure since about 2012 when they kept rates too low for too long. The two increases were just a saving face. Total incompetence. Actually most central bankers have been incompetent in unison.

MF

#102 Bezengy on 10.20.17 at 8:38 pm

Charlie Angus is a nice guy, and he always returns my emails, so I like the guy. The problem is he doesn’t own a calculator, and wastes all his time condemning big business or anyone else who makes money, like a true socialist. There are so many issues like affordable house, no cost tuition, or guaranteed employment he could work on and sell to the public, but his solution is always tax and spend, just like T2. He could use a few days with Garth to tune him up. He’s right on Bill though, who is also a nice guy, but believe me T2 is sharpening his knife as you read this, cause that’s how politics works. Ask Garth.

#103 When Will They Raise Rates? on 10.20.17 at 8:39 pm

#73 DON on 10.20.17 at 7:29 pm

Millens – time to use those phones and do your research before settling for a life time achievement reward in big debt – just to own a particle board POS. Why pay for the boomers retirement?

—————

http://www.tzr.io/yarn-clip/ca7a5fc8-9117-49c8-9578-7118ea339aed

#104 the Jaguar on 10.20.17 at 8:42 pm

Credit Union’s don’t offer everything the Big Five can offer. But most borrowers never take the time to review these issues.
What a beautiful shot of Bandit at Bellfountain. He looks so content. A lucky dog to have found such a good family.

#105 Dan.t on 10.20.17 at 8:50 pm

#77 Canucksrock on 10.20.17 at 7:39 pm
Hi Garth, I’m located in vancover. 2 of my neighbours have air bnb’s and brag about not paying tax on the money they are charging. Will the government go after air bnb cheaters?

—————–

Exactly my point. It is wide spread and nothing is done about it. How about everyone from BC write in and let me know if you know someone directly or indirectly not claiming rental income. No one will touch real estate in BC. NDP liars avoiding it like the plague after running and winning by promises of affordable housing. Nice.

Wide spread and open criminal activities real estate related, just get buried. Casino scandal… oh, it takes years to figure it out… meaning no one will pay, hopefully in 4 years everyone forgets and all good !

#106 Smoking Man on 10.20.17 at 8:53 pm

I waited to the close of the forex today thinking some profit taking would take place and I could buy more USDCAD. Dident happen.

Huge bullish sign. Prediction a huge Gap up on Sunday night.

#107 For those about to flop... on 10.20.17 at 8:54 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Richmond.

Here’s another one that got caught with their hands in the cookie jar.

Been Pink Snow,PinkPollen ,Pink Lemonade and is now a Pumpkin,like a few others I’ve posted this week if they don’t get a wriggle on the will complete the cycle.

They probably know by now that they are not going to make a profit and now it’s all about finding someone to step up and be a good little Crealiever (someone that believes the Canadian Real Estate Association) and help minimize these guy’s losses.

Who stole the cookie from the cookie jar…

M43BC

4260 Coventry Drive, Richmond paid 2.83 ass 2.58 now asking 2.96

Feb 21:$3,180,000
Aug 23: $3,060,000
Change: – 120000.00 -4%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=4260%20Coventry%20Drive,%20Richmond&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1WExSQQ==

#108 dw on 10.20.17 at 8:56 pm

Garth, what % of buyers would you guess are borrowing at the stress test limit in YVR, YYZ, YHZ?

#109 Leo Trollstoy on 10.20.17 at 8:57 pm

CAD/USD range bound

Deflation non existent

You’re welcome!

#110 Long-Time Lurker on 10.20.17 at 9:01 pm

#13 JCM on 10.20.17 at 5:29 pm
I need advice….

Thoughts? Should we try to scoop a deal in the Spring of 2018? Should we wait for 2019?

Watch the market and watch the trend. Make a decision.

Hey, Dolce Vita. About two days ago I read that Ray Dalio and Bridgewater put a $300 million short against Italy. I think it was Italian banks. You might want to look into that. Your bank might be shaky.

Ace Goodheart. Tesla just fired a large number of workers. At the start of the week there was a news video with a hedge fund guy bearish on Tesla but I didn’t bother to watch it. Yeah, I know that helps.

North Korea sent a “love letter” to Australia asking for help against the US. It looks like those sanctions are working quickly. Considering how the Kims treated their own people Kim Jung-Un is probably getting nervous, right now.

Finally, go easy on Hairhead. At least he or she still has hair.

#111 Ian on 10.20.17 at 9:14 pm

#75 Doghouse

I think yields in the US will increase regardless though, because they’re starting to sell the 4 trillion of crap they’ve been holding since the crisis in 07-08. That alone should raise yields.

#112 Stone on 10.20.17 at 9:24 pm

#55 TEMPLE on 10.20.17 at 7:00 pm
#37 Stone on 10.20.17 at 6:17 pm

Actually, if you can make over 16% on a balanced and diversified portfolio of ETFs, that is wonderful. Mind sharing how that would be done so we can all enrich ourselves? Portfolio mix and actual ETFs would be appreciated. I think Garth would also like to know. He might want you to manage his money.

Don’t blame me if your investing “strategy” is designed around preventing you from making rookie mistakes at the slightest whiff of a downturn. I’ve already pointed out how someone could have doubled your year-to-date returns with a single, effortless transaction, and with practically no cost. Don’t you think the 500 largest companies in the US are diversified?

——

Interesting. Your definition of diversification is the S&P 500. Yes, maybe so. On the other hand, I prefer to diversify through various geographical areas of the world as well as asset classes. Diversity is a hedge to risk and volatility which is not something I would recommend people cheaping out on. The ability to rebalance your portfolio is very pertinent.

I did pull up the ETF ZSP which is unhedged and the return from Dec 30, 2016 to today would be 9.30% along with a possible dividend of 1.80% for a total of 11.10%. That is hardly 16%+. Still a very nice return. With higher return comes higher risk. That’s 1 economy and 1 different currency than CAD. There is risk involved with that. No opportunity to rebalance and muffle your volatility. That’s not kool-aid that I’d like to drink.

Ultimately, my decisions are based on taking only the amount of risk necessary to give me a return that I consider satisfactory. I feel no need to keep up with the Jones as that only leads down the path of ruin. Peace of mind is priceless. At the age of 42 and $984,958.52 in ETFs and my bank account from which I pay my bills and to which my pay is deposited, I’m satisfied. And no real estate included so I’m fully liquid. I think that would put me pretty close to being a 1%er. If someone wants to correct me on that, please feel free but I seem to recall Garth mentioning that when you hit $1,000,000, you’re pretty much there. It’s a glorious place to be.

If you are better off than me and you’re self made, all the power to you because it is something not many can do. Otherwise, you sound like big hat and no cattle. I do wonder why you would belittle my YTD return. Even if someone has a return of 4% and that represents what they can get considering their risk tolerance, it’s still money in their pocket. It also means they’re willing to save something and invest it. All admirable qualities considering the world we live in and that we need money to have a decent living standard.

In the end, if you are big hat and no cattle, you have no relevance. Too bad. I was hoping you had something useful to share with all of us. It was nice to debate this point though. I thank you for that. Yes. It just reinforces what is important. Good choices. Good choices indeed.

#113 Ronaldo on 10.20.17 at 9:26 pm

#47 SilverSon on 10.20.17 at 6:34 pm
#21 MF on 10.20.17 at 5:43 pm

Banks can get just as much money by charging higher interest on smaller mortgages as they would get by charging lower interest on larger mortgages. And they have less exposure when the interest is higher and the mortgage is smaller. Because the stress test adds 2% is triggered when switching banks, there’s nothing stopping banks from adding 1% – 1.5% to existing mortgage holders because they know how difficult (or impossible) it would be for those mortgage holders to switch banks. Furthermore, anyone who won’t have 20% equity in their particleboard palace based on a reduced appraisal amount won’t be able to switch banks. Don’t forget … Canadian banks NEVER lose.
————————————————————
Exactly and why you invest in the banks. RY up close to 300% since Feb. of 09.

#114 Lead Paint on 10.20.17 at 9:30 pm

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.17 at 7:15

I suggest “Screwed Canadian Unemployed Millennial”

or just “SCUM” for brevity.

#115 Deplorable Dude on 10.20.17 at 9:36 pm

Cracks me up when folks say Trump only cares about himself….if that was the case he would have brought an island somewhere and enjoyed a Billionaires retirement. Instead he choses to work for free, and has literally put himself and his family in harms way from any number of people who literally want him dead.

….and has taken (so far) 2 years of absolute libel/slander and total crap from libtards and globalist fake news corps, who care more about illegal aliens than say unaffordable health insurance and insane deductibles for the masses.

Trumps NAFTA team are what he calls ‘killers’…billionaire hard nosed businessman…

Canada is screwed…we have zero leverage. Both Canada and Mexico cheat NAFTA by building cars with Chinese parts instead of North American parts. Trump is gonna put a stop to that and its going to hit auto jobs in Canada and Mexico.

You sound happy about that. ~ Garth

#116 CanadianOne on 10.20.17 at 9:39 pm

Just Sayin… data IS starting to circle around the hole we are about to call the Canadian drain.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/smart-money-and-dumb-money-are-moving-in-opposite-directions-2017-10-18?mod=MW_story_top_stories

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stocks-nafta-crash-1.4361844

And having known that MR. Market is much much more a function of behavior/sentiment (and policy support, forward guidance) rather than hard numbers that support a sound investment decision, it is hard to digest how there is going to be a melt and not a straight out dump on all things bubble.

M40AB

#117 Spock on 10.20.17 at 9:44 pm

As per recommendations yesterday, just ignore SCM’s posts and don’t reply to him. Will be a fun experiment to see how long he talks to himself.

#118 Terry on 10.20.17 at 9:45 pm

“Giving notice that NAFTA is dead would be no stretch since the guy doesn’t actually care what anybody (who didn’t vote for him) thinks.”

NAFTA will be cancelled and very soon. It’s been a bad deal ever since it was created for the U.S and Canada. The Canada U.S. trade deal before NAFTA worked very well because we had 2 economies of almost equal scale that worked well together. When NAFTA was created and we brought in Mexico, an economy of unequal scale compared to the U.S. and Canada, that’s when it all went bad as our manufacturing jobs headed further south to Mexico. Lets get rid of NAFTA and negotiate a new trade deal with our neighbors in the USA without Mexico this time!

Secondly, it was also a good thing for the U.S. to exit the Paris Climate Change Accord since man-made climate change is the biggest hoodwink and fraud ever created for the benefit of a few while millions of others continue to believe the narrative man-made climate change propaganda being continually thrown into their faces. People need to start thinking for themselves instead of letting the media and governments do all their thinking for them.

#119 45north on 10.20.17 at 9:46 pm

Victor V: from your link

Richmond Hill Detached Sales

2017 Sept 67
2016 Sept 209
2015 Sept 188
2014 Sept 180
2013 Sept 152
2012 Sept 126
2011 Sept 152
2010 Sept 131
2009 Sept 172
2008 Sept 109
2007 Sept 160

sales are down by half

same thing in Markham

we’re over thinking this. real estate is in free fall!

#120 MF on 10.20.17 at 9:50 pm

#113 Ronaldo

Not disagreeing but almost every large cap stock around the world is up bigly since 2009. Round after round of qe, year after year of ZIRP, bail out after bail out (one costing a trillion dollars) will have that effect.

MF

#121 MF on 10.20.17 at 9:54 pm

#100 Ronaldo

Personally, I enjoy the big city feel. Every other city in Canada seems too small for my liking compared to Toronto. My career, my family and my friends are all here as well.

Self inflicted pain :)

MF

#122 Doghouse Dweller on 10.20.17 at 9:58 pm

#111 Ian
they’re starting to sell the 4 trillion of crap
““““““““““““““““““““““““““““
Apparently not according to Wolf Richter,
Since October 4, the balance sheet gained $10 billion, all of it in the week ending October 18.

The Fed is supposed to unload $10 billion in October. But curiously, so far, it has done the opposite.

https://wolfstreet.com/2017/10/20/is-the-fed-getting-cold-feet-about-the-qe-unwind/

They talk about free markets yet set the cost of money like asinine Marxists. I think they are going to do what Peter Schiff has been saying. Keep rates below inflation, print till they crash the dollar/euro/yen and try to inflate away the global mountain of debt.
Yes ,rates to low for too long are a disaster caused by these morons, but we are the cannon fodder to save the Club and we ain`t in it.

#123 SoggyShorts on 10.20.17 at 10:03 pm

#31 Millennial Realist on 10.20.17 at 6:03 pm

Wanting to hold on to wealth that you have earned isn’t a boomer thing, it’s a success thing.

If you’re waiting for the world to be ruled by the unsuccessful who think equal sharing regardless of effort is the way to go, you shouldn’t hold your breath.

#124 Lost...but not leased on 10.20.17 at 10:10 pm

Watching Vancouver Realtor Steve Saretzky’s recent YOUTUBE.

Apparently Pre sale (condo) buyers could be really hooped..via stress testing etc..

..they are NOT guaranteed the same interest rates as they had previously when signing up……when the project completes and balance owing…may be forced to pay higher rate.

OUCH.

#125 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.20.17 at 10:26 pm

Cold weather weeds out faint of heart.

Many don’t have gambler DNA in them, a few do.

Evolution is real.

Says so in the Bible.

#126 For those about to flop... on 10.20.17 at 10:30 pm

The Hunt For Red October.

I wrote about the one on 1002 Clements Ave N.Vancouver being for sale for a year and here are some other ones that are celebrating a year on the market.

They have come and gone a few times and one or two of these might be sold or taking an extended hibernation but most of them are still going for it.If I had confirmation as to a couple of their status I would show you.

All these addresses are in my Pink Folder and stand a chance of losing money.

For sale since October 2016

4582 Sunland Pl Richmond

289 198st Langley

775 King George’s Way W.V

6236 Summit Ave W.V

11231 64a ave Delta

2160 Mathers Ave W.V

2227 Sorrento Dr Coquitlam

215 54a Delta

1036 Kings Ave W.V

I’ll stop at ten…

M43BC

#127 Dissident on 10.20.17 at 10:31 pm

Bahaha, I hate to agree with SCM but clearly, Amazon likes the idea that Canada has such a great immigration policy with a quick turnaround for foreign workers… :D

“Canada could be an attractive option given both its ability to bring in foreign workers…”

“Canada’s immigration system, with a two-week turnaround time for tech workers’ visas, is incredibly welcoming,” a spokeswoman for the Vancouver Economic Commission said.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/20/technology/amazon-second-headquarters-canada-mexico/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom

Some fodder for the dumpster fire that is this blog comment section.

#128 Investx on 10.20.17 at 10:36 pm

LOL at gender parity.

Yeah, I hope women gat all those construction jobs they’ve been applying for.

#129 Millennial Realist on 10.20.17 at 10:39 pm

#122 Soggy Shorts

“Wanting to hold on to wealth that you have earned isn’t a boomer thing, it’s a success thing.

If you’re waiting for the world to be ruled by the unsuccessful who think equal sharing regardless of effort is the way to go, you shouldn’t hold your breath.”

—————————————————————–

Spoken like the paradigmatic Boomer snowflake.

Born on third base, you proclaim to the world, ” Hey, I hit a triple!”

Got jobs when if you had a pulse you were on track for management. Got homes when they were dirt cheap. Got education that could be paid off each year with a summer job. Got upward social mobility in your twenties that most today might get in their sixties, if at all.

Almost none of it earned, all due to the fluke of when you were born.

“I know it’s a sin to hate, so let me put it this way: If they were animals, they’d be a plague of locusts, devouring everything in their path and leaving but a wasteland. If they were plants, they’d be kudzu, choking off every other living thing with their sheer mass.” (Paul Begala)

Not all Boomers are jerks like you, Soggy. But far too many are oblivious to the uniquely privileged position they have held, through no effort of their own.

“Successful?” Perhaps at choosing your parents?

Here’s some truth for you:

https://www.inverse.com/article/10090-4-economic-facts-to-shut-up-any-baby-boomer-saying-millennials-are-lazy

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/mar/15/babyboomers-welfare-politics-tax

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a1451/worst-generation-0400/

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/10/who-destroyed-the-economy-the-case-against-the-baby-boomers/263291/

https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/boomers-fleece-generation-x-social-security

“Boomer political and economic values reached their most perfect expression under pre-Boomer president Ronald Reagan in the eighties: Screw your neighbor, lay off the factory workers, shuffle a lot of paper, build an economy in which a few people get the gold mine and most people get the shaft.” (Paul Begala)

And now, at last, Millennials are in the driver’s seat.

Like I said, Boomers have just a few years to act in good faith to right this wrong. If they do not, it will be too late. Watch out for inheritance taxes, higher capital taxes and more.

It’s called democracy, Boomers, and its coming after you.

Be part of the change, or be run over by it.

Enjoy the illusion that you have a choice, while you still can………………………………

You also post as ‘Trumpocalypse2017’ and “A dollar is a Dollar is a Dollar.” It’s fun playing dressup on the Internet, isn’t it, son? — Garth

#130 cowtown cowboy on 10.20.17 at 10:40 pm

Just went to CIBC today to look at renewing…and getting rid of some other debt, so adding about $70k to our $260k mortgage…wife just lost her job two days ago, my contract ended a few weeks ago(I’m the rich, tax cheat IT guy that Morneau likes to talk about)..so we basically have 0 income…good times in the economic engine of Canada. We shouldn’t have much problem as we have current pay stubs…but thank god we aren’t looking to re-up in 6months..
Garth, best they are offering for a 5yr fixed is about 3.3%, I can do a 4yr variable for 2.7%…any thoughts on the matter???

#131 Dissident on 10.20.17 at 10:41 pm

#123 SoggyShorts on 10.20.17 at 10:03 pm
#31 Millennial Realist on 10.20.17 at 6:03 pm

Wanting to hold on to wealth that you have earned isn’t a boomer thing, it’s a success thing.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Riddle me this – what would you say to a corporation that decides to put its employees on a “wage band” system, telling them basically, this is the max you can ever aspire to earn, in your role at this company?

Those who are already in roles and earning above the ‘wage band’ will stay at that wage, but they’ll never move up.

Isn’t that anti-capitalist? Isn’t that *gasp* vaguely communist?

When an employee is suddenly informed, they will never be able to advance further under this company, where is their motivation? Isn’t that HR suicide? Rather, I can see this as an HR strategy to demoralize senior employee so that they leave, leaving room for the ‘fresh meat’ of new grad hires.

#132 Smoking Man on 10.20.17 at 10:47 pm

They shot a movie once in my home town.

Best new script mom and dad move into their kids apartment.

The possibilities

#133 Ian on 10.20.17 at 10:51 pm

#122 Doghouse

Yes. And, there’s still the possibility that the new Fed person suspends the sales completely.

Very confused times. And we are definitely the cannon fodder.

#134 For those about to flop... on 10.20.17 at 10:54 pm

Possible Pink Pumpkin Punctured.

This condo was sold 16 days ago.

Hopefully a realtor will tell me how much it went for.

Paid 1.58

Asking 1.59

Sold…

M43BC

902-1277 MELVILLE ST VANCOUVER. Paid 1.58 ass 1.4

Feb 21:$1,650,000
Jul 26: $1,598,000
Change: – 52000.00 -3%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDA5RUtDSw==

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1277-melville-street/902

#135 Ian on 10.20.17 at 10:57 pm

#109 Leo

Where are you getting rangebound from? CADUSD big red bars today. Chart looks awful.

Bets seem to be no BoC rest of year, and US Fed up in Dec.

#136 NoName on 10.20.17 at 10:57 pm

#129 Dissident on 10.20.17 at 10:41 pm

When an employee is suddenly informed, they will never be able to advance further under this company, where is their motivation? Isn’t that HR suicide? Rather, I can see this as an HR strategy to demoralize senior employee so that they leave, leaving room for the ‘fresh meat’ of new grad hires.

—-

That was funny and makes no sense, especially demoralize senior employee part. But worry you not, when Adam’s Smith invisible hand is back to work something will be done eventually.

It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. – AS

#137 NoName on 10.20.17 at 11:04 pm

interesting, definetly press play!

http://www.earthlymission.com/russia-wants-bulgarians-to-stop-painting-soviet-monuments-to-look-like-american-superheroes/

#138 Dissident on 10.20.17 at 11:04 pm

#181 IHCTD9 on 10.20.17 at 9:29 am

Since you asked (and can’t seem to perform your own online research):

https://iwpr.org/issue/employment-education-economic-change/pay-equity-discrimination/

Oh, and yes, sexism is alive and well in the workforce, even at Google. A dude working there sent out a memo declaring women were “biologically inferior” to men and therefore were incapable of performing their jobs, or jobs that had to do with “things rather than people”. Dude got promptly fired. You can moan all you want about “freedom of speech”. This is internal prejudice.

Google can’t have someone who is that *toxic* in their workplace. I mean, how are all those female engineers going to work with someone who is such a profound d-bag.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/charliewarzel/why-google-had-to-fire-james-damore?utm_term=.jgleNeNEz#.ufDr2r2vL

http://www.cnn.com/videos/cnnmoney/2017/10/13/eric-schmidt-on-sexual-harassment-controversial-google-memo-cnntech.cnnmoney

#139 Tony on 10.20.17 at 11:07 pm

The B-20 OSFI rules are the date you close on your house even if you’re preapproved that means nothing all that matters is the closing date if it falls on January the first or later in 2018. Preapproval is a total waste of time now that mortgage rates will fall between now and January 01, 2018 (the Canadian jobs report for October will show Canada in recession). There’s a very good chance the Canadian dollar will be in the 75 cent range by years end.

#140 Newcomer on 10.20.17 at 11:19 pm

#9 Crazy millennial on 10.20.17 at 5:25 pm
…not sure these b20 changes well affect the market much. People have no interest in selling their homes…
—————-

You are misunderstanding what “market” means. People who do not sell or buy are not part of the market. The market is made up only of buyers and sellers. What people who are not in the market think has no impact on prices or anything else.

#141 Protea on 10.20.17 at 11:29 pm

#77 Canucksrock

If the AirBNB cheaters evading paying taxes bothers you so much ,pick up the phone and call the TIP line at CRA . they will investigate !!!

#142 conan on 10.20.17 at 11:33 pm

#130 cowtown cowboy on 10.20.17 at 10:40 pm

I would ask for 140 k, and invest it prudently with another deposit taker. Cheap insurance against a longer then you thought, time period, to find work again.

You just lost two incomes, but the bank still loves you. Work it.

#143 Ian on 10.20.17 at 11:35 pm

#117 Spock

Should be an interesting discussion! His different personalities can hold a minimum wage debate with each other.

#144 Ace Goodheart on 10.20.17 at 11:36 pm

Yes it would appear that the conspiracy theories as to famous musician deaths are alive and well (remember Elvis?).

Only Hip song I ever could stand was Grace,Too. Hated the rest of their stuff with a passion (sorry Gord).

So one of the cockroach infested dumps in our ‘hood (only affordable Toronto hood other than Parkdale) just went for 1.375 million. I actually had a look at it back in 2012 when it was selling for 389,000. Looked too far gone. Ended up buying the dump across the street for 279,000 instead (it had a functional heating system and the toilets worked).

Now everyone is excited about the new subway.

And that building, that could have been featured in an episode of hoarders, just made a mil tax free for some dude with a bit of an ability to see into the future. And right in the middle of a housing price crash.

Mine, across the street, worth slightly more, will unfortunately be subject to taxation (it’s a three unit rental).

I learned real estate investing from my crazy neighbour back when I was 12. He had a bad back. Every so often it would go out on him and they’d rush him screaming to the hospital. Invariably the hospital would refuse to take him (one time they thought he was high on drugs. And other time they figured he was insane). Eventually his back would sort itself out on its own.

He bought junk real estate. A group of three houses in a bad area (That then became a major thoroughfare due to a change in zoning and the City moving a road). Bought for a song. Sold for millions to a company that taxed the houses and built a car service garage and gas station.

Vacant piece of land in the middle of Hell’s high acre. That became a housing subdivision ten years after he bought it. Paid five figures for it. Sold it for the low sevens.

Drove around in an old blue Cadillac. Fins to die for. Hood like a pool table. Could have afforded to drive anything. But he likes the old Caddy. This guy was the Warren Buffett of real estate. As old as the hills, richer than a Saudi Prince.

I’ll always remember what he told me. Said listen, if you want to win, you have to have a bet. Bet that something will happen. Have a reason for thinking that. Always always have a bet.

Best advice I’ve ever been given

#145 Lost...but not leased on 10.20.17 at 11:37 pm

To Millenials et al

First of all…maybe quit disrespecting the older generations.

Serves no purpose…many of us older generations did not have an easy ride…and had late epiphanies on how the world really works, rather unsettling.

No generation had it easy…even the Boomers..who may have been victims of the biggest psy-opps in history.

The torch will end up in your hands….and in the information age you may have THE best opportunity to
“set things right”.

…(if not the rest of us will come back and haunt yer @sses)

#146 Bitcoinnaire on 10.20.17 at 11:47 pm

A single Bitcoin now costs $6,000 USD.

Every day you dogmatically spend harumphing about the Millennial magic internet money, you’re bleeding potential prosperity.

It was $3,000 in September. You could have easily doubled your money in 4 weeks.

Beat that YVR real estate.

#147 I like cookies on 10.21.17 at 12:01 am

It’s funny, but in the dozens of articles I’ve read covering the OSFI rule changes, no one ever mentions what the stress test actually consists of… This is what I found after a bit of research:

The Gross Debt Service (GDS) cost is the total of all housing-related costs, including mortgage principal and interest payments, as well as property tax and heating costs.

The Total Debt Service (TSD) cost is the total needed to service all debts (mortgage principal and interest, car payments, line of credit, etc etc).

And the “industry standard” maximum limits are: GDS should be no more than 35% of gross income, and TDS should be no more than 42% of gross income.

Garth, please correct me if any of this is wrong, or even better, devote a column to this in more detail. Love your column; my cats look forward to me reading it nightly as it causes me to sit still long enough for a lap to become available.

#148 tulips on 10.21.17 at 12:12 am

#146 Bitcoinnaire on 10.20.17 at 11:47 pm

Thanks for the tip! How do you short those things anyway?

#149 Teulon on 10.21.17 at 12:13 am

130 Cowtown Cowboy
I wouldn’t be quite so generous with details on your financial prospects. I think CIBC is canvassing its Calgary branches for an app with your dimensions right now!

#150 Vanreal on 10.21.17 at 12:21 am

Less people buying just means renting is going to cost more. More people unable to leave the rental market and therefore more competition

#151 Ronaldo on 10.21.17 at 12:29 am

#130 cowtown cowboy

If you go to a fixed mortgage and later you find that you have to move due to job offer and have to sell your home and break the mortgage, you could be hit with some serious penalties with interest rates on the rise. Something to consider.

#152 Ace Goodheart on 10.21.17 at 12:31 am

Re # 146 Bitcoinnaire:

Yes but if you wish to buy 2 million Canadian dollars worth of bit coins, can you purchase them through the use of a 35 year 2.5% mortgage, with zero down and secondary financing?

Real estate continues to be the only mainstream investment in which it is possible to invest large amounts of money on “margin”

There is nothing comparable.

You cannot buy 2 million dollars worth of stock with 5% down and a 2.5% margin call. You cannot do that with anything else.

The fuzzy warm notion of Every one having a house to raise their happy smelly and warped little nuclear families in has created the monster that is investment real estate.

An entire industry fueled by a false pretence. A cute, cozy, dreamy lie.

And it is insanely profitable. The nesting instinct of beings with finite life spans and the urge to replicate their DNA is a powerful force.

You cannot generate that sort of leverage with Bit Coin.

As long as we are livin’ the lie real estate will continue to beat other investments by sheer force of leverage. You can make more off of a borrowed million than you can from your actual savings so long as the prices keep going up.

But you are playing the same dangerous game as the bond traders.

You need to always be buying into an interest rate slump. That is the only way to make money in real estate with out a bet.

As soon as rates rise, anyone who didn’t bet something is toast.

And should have bought some bitcoin

#153 n1tro on 10.21.17 at 12:37 am

#131 Dissident on 10.20.17 at 10:41 pm
#123 SoggyShorts on 10.20.17 at 10:03 pm
#31 Millennial Realist on 10.20.17 at 6:03 pm

Wanting to hold on to wealth that you have earned isn’t a boomer thing, it’s a success thing.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Riddle me this – what would you say to a corporation that decides to put its employees on a “wage band” system, telling them basically, this is the max you can ever aspire to earn, in your role at this company?

Those who are already in roles and earning above the ‘wage band’ will stay at that wage, but they’ll never move up.

Isn’t that anti-capitalist? Isn’t that *gasp* vaguely communist?

When an employee is suddenly informed, they will never be able to advance further under this company, where is their motivation? Isn’t that HR suicide? Rather, I can see this as an HR strategy to demoralize senior employee so that they leave, leaving room for the ‘fresh meat’ of new grad hires.
+++++++++++++++++++
Do you work for a living? If so, are you remotely successful? Lots of companies have wage bands. Wage bands are not anti capitalist. Quite the opposite. Employees know what they are. You are confusing motivation to work and advancing in ones career despite knowing the wage bands. Workers who arent whiny losers find ways to advance themselves to jump bands throughout their careers. Others sit at their position and bitch about how bad they got it because this and that. Some having sat in their position so long would blame the people who advance only got there because of their gender and that the system is stacked against them.

Before you go on a feminist rant, I didnt say the person who is stuck in their position was female but Im sure you assumed it.

#154 I thinks I know something on 10.21.17 at 1:20 am

#141 Protea on 10.20.17 at 11:29 pm

#77 Canucksrock
If the AirBNB cheaters evading paying taxes bothers you so much ,pick up the phone and call the TIP line at CRA . they will investigate !!!

———————————————-

Really! I thinks the morons at CRA will want to know everything about the tax cheat. The bank branch. The account number. The cheat’s SIN. The names of the paying guest. Etc.. Then they’ll want all your info. They don’t want to do anything themselves. No point bothering.

#155 JRT on 10.21.17 at 1:57 am

Better to get small loans that are expensive than big loans which are cheap. As for Trump pulling out of TPP-Good. Killing the Paris “Climate Accord”. Excellent. Wealth transfer and give the finger to the New World Order Globalists. The NAFTA agreement. Many Canadian jobs were shipped south. I still want to get auto parts at a reasonable price as I live near the border. Even Canadian made are cheaper there. Go figure.

#156 SoggyShorts on 10.21.17 at 2:51 am

#129 Millennial Realist on 10.20.17 at 10:39 pm
#122 Soggy Shorts

“Wanting to hold on to wealth that you have earned isn’t a boomer thing, it’s a success thing.

If you’re waiting for the world to be ruled by the unsuccessful who think equal sharing regardless of effort is the way to go, you shouldn’t hold your breath.”

—————————————————————–

Spoken like the paradigmatic Boomer snowflake.

Born on third base, you proclaim to the world, ” Hey, I hit a triple!”
****************************************
Actually I’m in my 30s, my parents were far from wealthy, although they did once lend me $1,000.
I worked my ass off to get where I am, moved cities multiple times, stressed and bled for the small company I started, and now that I’ve finally started making money I don’t feel like giving it all to those who don’t earn it. (BTW my lowest paid guy made $78K last year, and I had 2 of the last 7 where I made zero)
That’s my whole point: there will always be successful people in each generation, and they will want to keep what they earned.

#157 Entrepreneur on 10.21.17 at 3:13 am

Looks like the local home grown youths don’t have a chance in Vancouver after watching “No Fixed Address” with the off shore money coming in.

Vancouver like any other city in B.C. was built with taxpayer dollars and with love and volunteers like so many other cities here in province/country. Not so anymore, maybe in money but not in volunteering, all gone, just money.

But the fight is on and I like Charlie Angus too, who will fight for his country and the people in it. The Liberals/Conservatives allowed this mess this happen and time to vote those two parties out.

Elections are the only tool for us common people have, use it to your advantage and protect our country.

#158 Bashful Renter on 10.21.17 at 3:25 am

Too bad these videos are lightly viewed:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzFZOD-CgMk

#159 Nonplused on 10.21.17 at 4:07 am

We have, I think, enough history to know that God has mercy on no one, over the long term. And it’s not even that long of a term. God destroys you as soon as you get arrogant.

Doe this mean Trump is going down? Of course. But the wise will also know that this is why Trump came to be. His role is to take down the arrogant, and then once he’s done that (which he is actually doing a pretty good job of doing), he will also be brought down.

Trump is no savior. He is merely exposing all of our sins.

We don’t want to talk about Weinstein, but let’s face it you did something a little like that too to get your kid on the team.

Just tonight my son got put out for the season at a practice by one of his own teammates that didn’t want the competition. Was but a practice. Now my son is probably out for the season but the kid who did it and his parents don’t care. It was a practice! Eliminate all competition, even if they are on your side and on your team.

There is nothing left of western civilization, because it’s all kill or be killed now. Not even the youth can work together anymore they have to hurt their own players for advancement. The only way forward is to destroy even your own teammates.

These sins are apparent, when my son recovers from they brutal attack he suffered from his own team mate it will be too late for him to go back to soccer, he will have to ski or something.
catch
But this is how we are.

Today I was on a late flight with connections. They announced on the PA “if the is your destination please stay in your seats and let the people who have to catch connection leave first.” Well I was on of those people who was late for a connection. You know how many people did that? About 20%. I thanked them all for letting me though but 80% of the people couldn’t care less and would not get out of the way. I was thanking people for doing the right thing, when it hardly mattered because most people couldn’t care less.

So here is the thing you have to know about people. There are 20% of the population that will head the request to let you through because you have to make a flight, and they are good people. The other 80% couldn’t care less and they will be the first ones off the plane they don’t care about people who have connections. Even though they have nowhere to go and no reason to be such assholes.

It’s a tough world we live in folks. If you are siting in church, and you put a $20 in the basket, it is much more likely the next guy will take it out than throw in something himself.

#160 the ryguy on 10.21.17 at 4:24 am

Canada is screwed…we have zero leverage. Both Canada and Mexico cheat NAFTA by building cars with Chinese parts instead of North American parts. Trump is gonna put a stop to that and its going to hit auto jobs in Canada and Mexico.

You sound happy about that. ~ Garth

—————————————————

Honestly I kind of am. Our citizens are jackasses. Its been candy & rainbows for so long that people here need a big ol reality slap.

They think debt doesn’t matter.

They think making our resources more expensive is a good idea. Everyone bitches about carbon despite a) having zero clue what they are talking about and b) thinking that the added tax is doing something to offset the carbon they so despise.

They think diversity is our strength.

They think Trump fighting for America is somehow bad. Its his job idiots.

They have no problem with Canada sending foreign aid to other countries.

They have no problem with the growing welfare state.

They have no problem with the trillions of unfunded liabilities our government never mentions.

I hope every liberal in the country loses their job. I hope every NDP union is forced to decertify because no one is building/fixing/ordering anything.

You morons think there are more than 2 genders, and you voted a drama teacher as PM. So frankly you all deserve it. Sorry that some good people will get taken down in the wave, but most deserve it, if you aren’t part of the solution your part of the problem. There are solutions, and they are actually pretty simple, but we’ve allowed things to get so bad that people need a hug/safe space by hearing another opinion; Or even worse they can just yell hitler, whatever-ist, right wing, conservative as if it means anything.

So yeah, good, let it burn, a fire burns off the deadwood first anyway. If you have any actual talent, you’ll be fine in the transition.

#161 Howard on 10.21.17 at 5:11 am

This link bears repeating:
Amazon would save $1.5B a year in salaries if new HQ in Toronto area: Ed Clark
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/amazon-headquarters-clark-gta-1.4360079

There you have it. Canada is now officially a cheap labour country. Globalists have gutted Canada.

#162 FLHTK on 10.21.17 at 6:59 am

#87- Old Ron
Grab a Public Sector job if you can kids, and by 2042 you can collect the pension.
______________________________________________
Your wrong Old Ron they couldn’t retire in 2042….that would only be 25 years in…unless they are fireman or police they need 30 years! that makes it 2047( sticking tongue out at you)!

#163 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.21.17 at 7:58 am

#13 JCM on 10.20.17 at 5:29 pm

http://www.myrealtycheck.ca/

Too bad they don’t have this valuable service for Toronto yet.
The lower mainland is melting at about $10,000 per month per property. Its gonna take some time but this is going to be a steady slow melt.

#164 maxx on 10.21.17 at 8:00 am

#19 SCM on 10.20.17 at 5:39 pm

“Charlie Angus ripped Morneau a new one. He shoulda been NDP leader. I voted for him.

Charlie Angus on Bill Morneau attack on pensions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FO27Z7JN6o

Well worth the time. Thanks for sharing.

Your POV is not entirely out to lunch. Except for the part where you moronically insist that boomers and the successful are responsible for all of the world’s ills.

So, whatya gonna do about it? Endlessly greedy, filthy rich hypocrites have historically determined the course of people’s lives. Unless you were born rich or have won a huge lottery, there is no escape…….except and unless you build your own pile to the point where much of this bs doesn’t affect you.

I can hear it now, no real jobs, pathetic wages, the evil boomers have destroyed everything, blah, blah, blah……….

Good hair, Cheshire cat smiles and tats can never tax away an individual’s vision nor determination. Being lulled into a false sense of security by repeated bleating about working hard for the “Middle Class” is a guaranteed way NOT to get rich.
Nor is bitching about it.

So STFU and get busy protecting yourself – and while you’re at it, help someone else.

One word of caution though….it’s generally really hard work and takes time, two things many key-tapping M’s find next to impossible to comprehend, let alone accept.

Unfortunately, we now live in a world that puts money first. If you don’t have enough, you’d better have one he!! of a social safety net…..and even that has its limits.

So. Your time will tell if you’ve got it to go.

Let’s see if you can UNscrew yourself.

#165 Dharma Bum on 10.21.17 at 8:04 am

#13 JCM

“Thoughts? Should we try to scoop a deal in the Spring of 2018? Should we wait for 2019?”
——————————————————————–
This indecision’s killing me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BN1WwnEDWAM

#166 Dharma Bum on 10.21.17 at 8:14 am

#129 Millennial Realist

“Got jobs when if you had a pulse you were on track for management. Got homes when they were dirt cheap. Got education that could be paid off each year with a summer job. Got upward social mobility in your twenties that most today might get in their sixties, if at all.”

“Almost none of it earned, all due to the fluke of when you were born.”
——————————————————————–

As a boomer, I really can’t argue with that.

“I can’t help it if I’m lucky!”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA_kQIZJkI0

#167 Millmech on 10.21.17 at 8:16 am

150
Wrong,everyone who buys immediately puts in a suite or two and rents them out,so still lots out there and more coming.On my block alone there is three good sized suites for rent,everything included for $900/ mth in the GVRD.Sheesh what my coworkers pay for taxes and utilities is what I pay in rent(feels empowering renting housing from the bank lord for 4 times what you would pay a land lord tho)

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.17 at 8:29 am

@#129 Millenial Realist, trumpocalypse2017, A Dollar is a dollar ia a dollar.
+++++++
“You also post as ‘Trumpocalypse2017’ and “A dollar is a Dollar is a Dollar.” It’s fun playing dressup on the Internet, isn’t it, son? — Garth

Say it isnt so Trumpy.
You LIED to me!
sniffle, snort, gulp

#169 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.17 at 8:39 am

@#130 Cowtown Cowboy

So your wife just laid off and you’re not working and you want to wrap a 70 debt in with your 260k mortgage…….330k at 3.3% fixed rate for 5 years
And you’re both still out of work
here’s another option.

Sell.
Take whats left over and invest it
Move to where there is work.
rent.

#170 Ian on 10.21.17 at 9:14 am

#161 Howard

Sounds like a win…until the employees discover the cost of living in Toronto.

#171 akashic record on 10.21.17 at 9:26 am

Steve Bannon’s speech, unscripted, for the inquiring minds wanting to understand what made Trump win.

https://www.facebook.com/Breitbart/videos/10160026463970354/

#172 genbizx on 10.21.17 at 10:02 am

#31 millenial realist…

don’t forget something…boomers were young once and thought they knew more than anyone else…that they would do it all better…once you have the benefit of a few more years behind you will realize how silly you sounded “back then” and that all the grand ideas you had really weren’t much and didn’t change much….the whole one generation against another is also a strategy that marketers (many of them boomers) are using on you to channel your spending habits in exactly the direction they want….they are playing you right if you think that what you and your generation are doing, thinking, buying are original thoughts. you’ll see.

#173 I’m stupid on 10.21.17 at 10:13 am

Hi Garth

I think you should begin to limit the number of posts someone can make. I think 5 per day is a fair number. The comment section has been over run by a few people lately and it drowns out diversity.

#174 anc0dia on 10.21.17 at 10:24 am

#156 SoggyShorts on 10.21.17 at 2:51 am

Actually I’m in my 30s, my parents were far from wealthy, although they did once lend me $1,000.
I worked my ass off to get where I am, moved cities multiple times, stressed and bled for the small company I started, and now that I’ve finally started making money I don’t feel like giving it all to those who don’t earn it

That’s my whole point: there will always be successful people in each generation, and they will want to keep what they earned.

So for years you freeloaded off other taxpayers by driving on the roads the taxpayers pay for, using the school system the taxpayers pay for, the health system the taxpayers pay for etc. And finally you start to make money in the economy (the one the tax payers built up around you) and you don’t feel you should pay your share into the system? You are right in one aspect – there are parasites like you across all generations.

#175 LivinLarge on 10.21.17 at 10:26 am

“I like cookies”…you get it. GDSR & TDSR changes are all that B20 amounts to. B20 does not increase anyone’s mortgage APR.

GDSR and TDSR are nothing more that ratios used to evaluate credit worthiness of a borrower. Actually just affordability. There have always been underwriting requirements for any credit approval and B20 is nothing more than forcing the banks to codify those standard requirements higher than they have in the past.

You wish. The ratios will now be based on the market rate + 2%. It is equivalent to an increase in the APR for any borrower and will therefore restrict the total available amount of credit. This is the fuel real estate burns. There will be consequences. — Garth

#176 Spock on 10.21.17 at 10:38 am

Ian: SCM can be both the employer and employee and they can negotiate the wages between themselves.

SCM’s condition will be same as the robot in the Star Trek episode who thinks that Kirk is the CREATOR and then burns up due the illogic.

We are already seeing far better comments simply ignoring SCM and we all hope some country will be dumb enough to accept this poster child of welfare and handouts

———————-
#143 Ian on 10.20.17 at 11:35 pm
#117 Spock

Should be an interesting discussion! His different personalities can hold a minimum

#177 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.17 at 10:39 am

Stop the Presses! Stop the Presses!
Vancouver mayor Moonbeam has been busy people.

His Worships’ latest announcement!

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://vancouversun.com/entertainment/celebrity/dwayne-the-rock-johnson-extends-metro-charm-offensive-to-city-of-vancouver&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwj36cWO-IHXAhXojFQKHX0dC8YQqQIILDAJ&usg=AOvVaw39htrWUdLJ1GAhYC3f_avr

All the little people may now clap politely.
Mayor Gregor will be available for autographs later today once the rain stops and the red carpet is rolled out.

#178 MF on 10.21.17 at 10:57 am

#162 FLHTK on 10.21.17 at 6:59 am

Actually most public sector jobs are now contract with zero security.

Time to leave the 1980’s.

#161 Howard on 10.21.17 at 5:11 am

All we hear in this comment section is the “business community” complaining about too much red tape, taxes and high salaries for Canadian employees.

Now, we hear Toronto actually has LOW labour costs and we STILL have people complaining? Can’t win.

#160 the ryguy on 10.21.17 at 4:24 am

If you have the solution to our woes why don’t you run for office then? It beats sitting here complaining on this pathetic blog.

MF

#179 Asterix1 on 10.21.17 at 11:01 am

#96 PastThePeak on 10.20.17 at 8:26 pm
Everybody here that thinks the worst is over for housing, especially in the GTA, is right. The soft landing has already happened and prices are rising again. This B20 rule won’t do anything the other measures have. The fundamentals of housing are too strong.

Toronto is a world class city where the housing is less expensive than London, New York, or Hong Kong. There is a lot of room to grow. Now that prices are rising again the buyers will come back with confidence that what they purchase now will increase in value. Thus they can afford a high mortgage as they know their wealth will increase. In a couple of years, with a good 20-30% increase in value, they can either consider leveraging up or take out some value in the form of a HELOC (you have to enjoy life while you can, so take advantage of a little of your wealth increase).

Anybody who holds back from buying on this dip is a fool! Do want to be the one who looks back in 5 years and realizes that housing has doubled and you are still renting.? Housing in the GTA will never decline for more than a few months. Buy before it is too late!
___________________________________________

Is this person for real? That was hilarious.

You are either completely clueless to all the financials/regulations/ data/analysis that is out there OR you are a realtor.

I think you are both!

#180 Steerage class on 10.21.17 at 11:11 am

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.17 at 8:29 am

@#129 Millenial Realist, trumpocalypse2017, A Dollar is a dollar ia a dollar.
+++++++
“You also post as ‘Trumpocalypse2017’ and “A dollar is a Dollar is a Dollar.” It’s fun playing dressup on the Internet, isn’t it, son? — Garth

Say it isnt so Trumpy.
You LIED to me!
sniffle, snort, gulp

..
Trumpocalypse is a commie!!! WOW.. well actually kinda makes sense

#181 Elle on 10.21.17 at 11:13 am

New husband and I in the hot seat recrntly. Father in law put the pressure on to buy a house. They are “worried about us” (bored and opinionated). Explained we have a plan. Renting is fine. We are liquid, saving every month, trashing husband’s student debt. And husband’s job situation means there’s a 50/50 chance we may move to another province summer/fall 2018. They did not get it and insisted we get a mortgage pre approvoal (we haven’t).
FIL is a truck driver (small business owner – mostly US runs) and they are immigrants (will get limited CPP, no compamy pensions etc) and a 20 yr mortgage yet. I am DB pension millenial. Great benefirs. Husband switching into high demand health care diagnostics job.
They didn’t grasp when I said they need to worry about thrmselves. We are young. Good educations. time.
All i see for them is risk yet they think we are risky and in trouble…looked at us like we were nuts, totally unreasonable.
boggles the mind (thank heaven for this blog we had moves to counter the house horny/single asset pitch)

#182 LivinLarge on 10.21.17 at 11:13 am

Oh commander, it’s far more than me wishing and I can’t believe you truly don’t differentiate between “equivalent to” and “actual” APR increases.

I spent 10 years at a Chartered Bank as an underwriter including training new underwriters and B20 will indeed have consequences but those consequences won’t be borrowers paying more in mortgage interest but it will result in borrowers buying lower priced homes than they otherwise might have wanted to buy.

All credit granting decisions whether home, auto, revolving etc are based on two relatively equal components, affordability (debt service ratios) and covenant (payment history or credit score). This is why underwriting was and may still be, one of the first stages in the management training program at all banks.

So, B20 is a obligatory government imposed change to the “affordability” half of the underwriting process. Now, with B20, the borrower must show the capacity to pay their obligation “as if ” the rate was +2%. Showing that “capacity” is not equivalent to actually paying that higher rate. If rates do however go up by 2% upon renewal then the new borrower will have to pay that new rate and I certainly think the B20 is a clear indication that the Libs and BoC are signalling that they are targeting a 2% increase in the near term and as such are using a bit if a heavy hand to avoid a bloodbath in the near future but since only time will actually tell whether a 2% increase can succesfully be built in to the system, all fears are conjecture now.

I don’t like the premise behind B20 but it certainly isn’t actually delivering any effective increase in mortgage APR. At best it is almost equivalent to a form of “free contingent liability avoidence insurance”.

B20 will likely depress house prices but most significantly in the upper and lower ends of the price spectrum.

#183 joel toronto on 10.21.17 at 11:29 am

Question for Garth. Are the new mortgage rules going to effect commercial real estate.

#184 the ryguy on 10.21.17 at 12:09 pm

#178 MF on 10.21.17 at 10:57 am
If you have the solution to our woes why don’t you run for office then? It beats sitting here complaining on this pathetic blog.
—————————————————————-

The country isn’t ready for it. Things are too good. Despite the majority of this country being up to their eyeballs in debt, we still allow our morons in charge to argue about whether or not using an incorrect pronoun is worthy of jail time.

We are on the edge of a cliff and most people don’t see it or choose to ignore it. Honestly I get it, I wish I didn’t see it, but I do. The whole system is rotten and frankly needs to implode.

Or maybe Im wrong and Canada is truly the Earths unicorn. Time will tell.

When the day comes though, I know Ive got your vote!

#185 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.17 at 12:11 pm

@#173 I’m Stoooo-pid
“I think you should begin to limit the number of posts someone can make. I think 5 per day is a fair number. The comment section has been over run by a few people lately and it drowns out diversity.”
+++++

OMG ‘diversity” rears it’s ugly head in so many diverse ways…………the irony.
But I guess my 5 posts at midnight and then another 5 posts at 1am are acceptable?

#186 Rainclouds on 10.21.17 at 12:19 pm

Regarding Illegal suites/Airbnb. The “mortgage helper” was cooked up by the RE industry. Once its sold and they move on, its YOURS to manage. Banks had no problem lending against the potential revenue but YOUR problem if it goes sideways.
Airbnb? different drivers, different “pushers”

Angry neighbours, pissed off ex spouses, screwed over tenants. Jealous friends. Idiotic vacancy rates.Insurance risks. All can pick up the phone and poof: CRA audit, Municipal attention (including building inspection).

A smart person would play by the rules and avoid all the potential pain (which rapacious governments are feeling as revenue shortfalls or put another way, out of control spending hits their bottom line)

Ergo, time to go after the low hanging fruit… Suites/Airbnb would likely be at the top of the list given the relative ease in data collection.

Did a VRBO in California, owner was a Lawyer, everything by the book. “Sanctions were too onerous to attempt hiding it.” Smart dude. Doesn’t have to look over his shoulder

Governments are typically slow off the mark dealing with change but once the battleship turns and points its considerable might and brands these folks as tax cheats there will be little sympathy.

The windfall in tax revenues is too juicy to ignore. Prosecutions with hefty sanctions, over time, will bring most to heal. The goal with suites isn’t to shut them down, simply regulate and collect.

Airbnb on the other hand morphed from a single room to several suites managed by shady Property Management Co.’s. They (owners), will be financially clubbed like a seal.

The confluence of forces against RE in Canada is getting hard to ignore as overlapping regulatory and government attention at every level pushed by voters who are fed up with Developer driven agenda’s. They are getting kicked in the nads by pissed off voters. Libs in BC took a hit. Vision in Van are next.

#187 Chico on 10.21.17 at 12:24 pm

#127 Dissident on 10.20.17 at 10:31 pm

Bahaha, I hate to agree with SCM but clearly, Amazon likes the idea that Canada has such a great immigration policy with a quick turnaround for foreign workers… :D

“Canada could be an attractive option given both its ability to bring in foreign workers…”

“Canada’s immigration system, with a two-week turnaround time for tech workers’ visas, is incredibly welcoming,” a spokeswoman for the Vancouver Economic Commission said.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/20/technology/amazon-second-headquarters-canada-mexico/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom

Some fodder for the dumpster fire that is this blog comment section.

——————————-

Would you please post a link to a current photo, you sound sexy!

#188 Millennial Realist on 10.21.17 at 12:52 pm

Like I said, Boomers have just a few years to act in good faith to right this wrong. If they do not, it will be too late. Watch out for inheritance taxes, higher capital taxes and more.

It’s called democracy, Boomers, and its coming after you.

Be part of the change, or be run over by it.

Enjoy the illusion that you have a choice, while you still can………………………………

You also post as ‘Trumpocalypse2017’ and “A dollar is a Dollar is a Dollar.” It’s fun playing dressup on the Internet, isn’t it, son? — Garth
————————————————–

Nope. Those are not my posts. Just this moniker.

At first, your comment seemed really odd, Garth.

Then I started to chuckle. :) :) :)

So…you are tracking down IP addresses of posters you don’t like, to try to make a case against them?

But your tech savvy appears to be stuck in about 1995 DOS, just like your economic philosophy is mired in 1984 trickle-down goo, Garth.

You Boomers are SO CUTE!!!

A heads up, then, is in order, Garth:

I use the internet using TOR-supported VPN accounts that relay and interface with other IP addresses. Like most tech savvy millennials, I don’t trust the Boomer-led mega corps that are behind the internet, trying to steal our data.

The VPNs that I employ rotate through a range of accounts, but usually emit just a couple of stable IP addresses. Sometimes the cleverer ones even tag along with other user accounts for free.

The last one I’ve been using has at last call about 13,864 users in my geographical area. So maybe those other posters you mentioned are also linked – sounds likely.

Sounds like you are making a leap from your techno-illiterate surveillance to some sort of ad hominem attack against younger people with a different viewpoint.

Putting aside for the moment that this might be considered kinda creepy of you, I do find your error and assumption highly amusing!!

You Boomers can be ADORABLE!! :) :)

My generation will try to remember that next year when we end up having to change your diapers!

(You remind me, Garth, of my grandpa. Last summer he called me up, saying I should rush down the road to his home, two hours away, because there was a great deal on an amazing piece of technology at his neighbour’s garage sale, only $40. It was a 1998 Palm Pilot. LOLOL!!)

#189 maxx on 10.21.17 at 12:54 pm

Excellent! I’d like to modify a few words from page 4:

• The amount of FIRE industry
debris is rising
rapidly, jeopardizing
the safety of our
economy and the country’s future

•FIRE industry debris removal
should be one of the tptb operations main
objectives (light years away)

•Even though Canis Major’s nose is cyclically (4 year periods) rubbed into the debris, no effective solutions have yet been devised. Plans are tabled to rename the constellation, given suspicions that it does not contain the brightest star. Siriusly.

#190 dumpster fire on 10.21.17 at 12:57 pm

I’m a little confused about this part of the B-20 post from a couple days back:
“Soon we’ll have a universal stress test, applicable to everyone regardless of how big a down payment they have in their jeans. […] Neither will having 50% to put down. And it doesn’t matter how much money the bank of Mom slipped you.”

If we have two people with identical finances, except that one has a larger down payment, then the one with more down would still qualify for a larger mortgage, right? Seems like B-20 will more adversely affect people with lower income (and borrowed/gifted down payment) if that’s the case.

Am I reading this correctly?

~ breathe deep

Yes. The more money you must borrow, the more income you require to pass the test. — Garth

#191 Ronaldo on 10.21.17 at 1:18 pm

#169 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.17 at 8:39 am

@#130 Cowtown Cowboy

So your wife just laid off and you’re not working and you want to wrap a 70 debt in with your 260k mortgage…….330k at 3.3% fixed rate for 5 years
And you’re both still out of work
here’s another option.

Sell.
Take whats left over and invest it
Move to where there is work.
rent.
————————————————————
Best advice yet. Last thing you want to do is to tie yourself into a locked in mortgage with no jobs. Yikes.

#192 DON on 10.21.17 at 1:21 pm

#188 Millennial Realist on 10.21.17 at 12:52 pm

Like I said, Boomers have just a few years to act in good faith to right this wrong. If they do not, it will be too late. Watch out for inheritance taxes, higher capital taxes and more.

It’s called democracy, Boomers, and its coming after you.

Be part of the change, or be run over by it.

Enjoy the illusion that you have a choice, while you still can………………………………

You also post as ‘Trumpocalypse2017’ and “A dollar is a Dollar is a Dollar.” It’s fun playing dressup on the Internet, isn’t it, son? — Garth
————————————————–

Nope. Those are not my posts. Just this moniker.

At first, your comment seemed really odd, Garth.

Then I started to chuckle. :) :) :)

So…you are tracking down IP addresses of posters you don’t like, to try to make a case against them?

But your tech savvy appears to be stuck in about 1995 DOS, just like your economic philosophy is mired in 1984 trickle-down goo, Garth.

You Boomers are SO CUTE!!!

A heads up, then, is in order, Garth:

I use the internet using TOR-supported VPN accounts that relay and interface with other IP addresses. Like most tech savvy millennials, I don’t trust the Boomer-led mega corps that are behind the internet, trying to steal our data.

The VPNs that I employ rotate through a range of accounts, but usually emit just a couple of stable IP addresses. Sometimes the cleverer ones even tag along with other user accounts for free.

The last one I’ve been using has at last call about 13,864 users in my geographical area. So maybe those other posters you mentioned are also linked – sounds likely.

Sounds like you are making a leap from your techno-illiterate surveillance to some sort of ad hominem attack against younger people with a different viewpoint.

Putting aside for the moment that this might be considered kinda creepy of you, I do find your error and assumption highly amusing!!

You Boomers can be ADORABLE!! :) :)

My generation will try to remember that next year when we end up having to change your diapers!

*********************

Who do you think built the electronic gadgets you get to play with…exactly what generations. Don’t be so smug if someone wants to track you down and has the appropriate resources they will. Best to talk like you are face to face.

#193 DON on 10.21.17 at 1:26 pm

#191 Ronaldo on 10.21.17 at 1:18 pm

#169 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.17 at 8:39 am

@#130 Cowtown Cowboy

So your wife just laid off and you’re not working and you want to wrap a 70 debt in with your 260k mortgage…….330k at 3.3% fixed rate for 5 years
And you’re both still out of work
here’s another option.

Sell.
Take whats left over and invest it
Move to where there is work.
rent.
————————————————————
Best advice yet. Last thing you want to do is to tie yourself into a locked in mortgage with no jobs. Yikes.
**************

Take this advice…these blog dogs are speaking from experience. Better opportunities are out there if you are willing to uproot yourself. In less than a year you can secure jobs in another place and be back on track.

Life is a path and it is not necessarily a straight line.

#194 DON on 10.21.17 at 1:38 pm

Rainclouds on 10.21.17 at 12:19 pm

The confluence of forces against RE in Canada is getting hard to ignore as overlapping regulatory and government attention at every level pushed by voters who are fed up with Developer driven agenda’s. They are getting kicked in the nads by pissed off voters. Libs in BC took a hit. Vision in Van are next.

********************
Exactly what is happening. Check out local muni council meetings.

#195 AB Boxster on 10.21.17 at 1:42 pm

#188 Millennial Realist on 10.21.17 at 12:52 pm


I use the internet using TOR-supported VPN accounts that relay and interface with other IP addresses. Like most tech savvy millennials, I don’t trust the Boomer-led mega corps that are behind the internet, trying to steal our data.
But your tech savvy appears to be stuck in about 1995 DOS, just like your economic philosophy is mired in 1984 trickle-down goo, Garth.

———————–
Well goooollllyyyy.
Aren’t you a tech savvy one.

Your past rant just serves to show the naivety of the young and arrogant.

Your first error is based upon your incredible stupidity regarding identify politics.

That you believe that all Millennials speak with one voice (and that you are the likely spokeperson) or that all Boomers are the same, is classic.

Secondly, that you try to use your so called ‘technical brilliance’ as a talking point to indicate how morally and generationaly superior you are, is however, rather than a trait of an intelligent millennialist, but rather just the individual personality traits of a rather arrogant prick.

That you actually need to employ VPN technology, really serves to show that rather then a ‘tech savy’ individual you recognize that most of your actions on the wonderful web, are either patently illegal, or would result in likely sanction, (whether from job loss, or social ostracizing) if your true identity were known, and your comments could be associated.

Pretty much the definition of a true internet Troll.

Congrats on that.

#196 DON on 10.21.17 at 1:42 pm

#64 Dolce Vita on 10.20.17 at 7:09 pm

#52 Lost….but not leased

Yup. That says it all.

I think CRA is trying with a few showcase busts but nobody wants to be blamed for crashing the YVR RE market in Govt. yet they all promise to make it affordable.

Even Horgan has said as much that he does not want to take any actions that would in essence break the YVR Boomer RE nest egg, and I suspect, including his own.

The NDP/Greens talked a good election story about making RE affordable and have delivered NOTHING while watching the rest of the population indebt itself for a life time of financial servitude to a bank.
***************
I never thought the new gov would take the risk for the reasons you state. I have my eyes on the market self imploding and the catalyst being one of the ‘usual suspects’.

#197 fancy_pants on 10.21.17 at 1:46 pm

Yep. Rate hikes next year. In perpetuity.

#198 rainclouds on 10.21.17 at 1:57 pm

#192 Who do you think built the electronic gadgets you get to play with…exactly what generations. Don’t be so smug if someone wants to track you down and has the appropriate resources they will. Best to talk like you are face to face.

True Dat.

I’m 59, use a VPN, and am under no illusion that my addressing info can’t be extracted by the agencies in power who have tools we cant even imagine. They have connections in EVERY toll office/IP provider in North America backhauled to THEIR equipment . I simply assume TOR sites and the “dark web” are being monitored. Want to find out? Order a machine gun to your house.

Dream on Genius Millennial………

#199 akashic record on 10.21.17 at 2:09 pm

#192 DON

Don’t be so smug if someone wants to track you down and has the appropriate resources they will.

Not to be too smug, but it seems like nobody wants to know lately anything.

Equifax, Yahoo, Clinton mail server, Las Vegas shooting, Clinton Foundation, JFK assassination documents, “Trump dossier”, Kaspersky, Uranium One, Weinstein, Panama papers… just to recall a few.

Who breached the CRA? Who are making fake CRA lawsuit calls, texts as we speak without being “tracked down”?

#200 Leo Trollstoy on 10.21.17 at 2:11 pm

Boomers are rich because they’re lucky

Millenials are poor because they’re unlucky

I can live w that

Lol

#201 Prince Polo on 10.21.17 at 2:12 pm

I’m behind on comments. I do want to point out the irony/hilarity of some of SCM’s commentary. He gets mad at Loblaws for laying off workers, and mentions the choice to do grocery shopping at No Frills. No Frills is owned by Loblaws!! D’oh.
Signed,
usually a silent Millennial, who’s happy that Garth preaches this stuff for free! Thanks, amigo.

#202 I’m stupid on 10.21.17 at 2:22 pm

@185 crowded

My finger hurts scrolling down, I skip posts from the following;

Stone
Mf
Scm
Flop
Smoking man
Dolce
And a few more. They post too often to be worth while to read. And I meant 5 comments max per blog post.

This is an important link but no one will read it

https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/animals/photos/10-facts-will-change-way-you-think-about-donkeys/theres-much-love-about-donkeys

#203 TEMPLE on 10.21.17 at 3:05 pm

#112 Stone on 10.20.17 at 9:24 pm

Ultimately, my decisions are based on taking only the amount of risk necessary to give me a return that I consider satisfactory. I feel no need to keep up with the Jones as that only leads down the path of ruin.

That’s fine, but I don’t think you should be so happy about bragging about getting straight Ds.

With higher return comes higher risk. That’s 1 economy and 1 different currency than CAD. There is risk involved with that. No opportunity to rebalance and muffle your volatility. That’s not kool-aid that I’d like to drink.

In order: no it doesn’t, who cares, no there isn’t, who cares again, and you’ve already had a different kind of Kool-Aid. I’m surprised you have bought into so many investing myths.

I did pull up the ETF ZSP which is unhedged and the return from Dec 30, 2016 to today would be 9.30% along with a possible dividend of 1.80% for a total of 11.10%. That is hardly 16%+.

Sounds like ZSP is a piece of junk. Let Bloomberg realign your expectations:

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND

S&P500 is at 15% YTD. The Dow is at 18%. Obviously a lot higher TTM for both. Any index ETF that isn’t doing it wrong would get you basically that. That’s the baseline. Smarter does even better.

#204 DON on 10.21.17 at 3:30 pm

Should we be turning our attention to Hudson’s Bay Company? CEO steps down…investor wants they to cash in on key real estate for shareholder value. Mounting losses.

#205 Bob on 10.21.17 at 5:25 pm

Loophole that helps you avoid the B20 Stress Test.
Sorry no housing crash.
http://www.theprovince.com/mortgage+industry+sees+amortization+loophole+osfi+stress+test+rules/15253434/story.html

As detailed yesterday, this is meaningless. But I’m happy you were aroused. — Garth

#206 Ace Goodheart on 10.21.17 at 9:47 pm

HBC is a real estate play. Has been for a long time. Look for a takeover. The carcass has value

#207 Bob on 10.22.17 at 4:33 am

B20 will not have any effect on the RE market

Several of Canada’s large banks have said they don’t anticipate a major impact to their lending business from the OSFI changes.

An official from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, for example, told analysts in August that 90 per cent of current loan applications would still qualify under the new OSFI rule, while a Royal Bank of Canada executive said up to 90 per cent of its loan applications are already being assessed at the higher rate.

#208 Oh! so scary! on 10.22.17 at 9:50 am

Another frightful missive…one of thousands…cry wolf much!?

#209 aa3 on 10.22.17 at 11:43 am

SCM #6: ‘How about higher wages for workers?’

Here on the West Coast, we are seeing for the first time in like 40 years.. labour shortages, and that is translating to wage increases as firms are starting to bid against each other.

#210 Stone on 10.22.17 at 12:48 pm

#203 TEMPLE on 10.21.17 at 3:05 pm
#112 Stone on 10.20.17 at 9:24 pm

Ultimately, my decisions are based on taking only the amount of risk necessary to give me a return that I consider satisfactory. I feel no need to keep up with the Jones as that only leads down the path of ruin.

That’s fine, but I don’t think you should be so happy about bragging about getting straight Ds.

With higher return comes higher risk. That’s 1 economy and 1 different currency than CAD. There is risk involved with that. No opportunity to rebalance and muffle your volatility. That’s not kool-aid that I’d like to drink.

In order: no it doesn’t, who cares, no there isn’t, who cares again, and you’ve already had a different kind of Kool-Aid. I’m surprised you have bought into so many investing myths.

I did pull up the ETF ZSP which is unhedged and the return from Dec 30, 2016 to today would be 9.30% along with a possible dividend of 1.80% for a total of 11.10%. That is hardly 16%+.

Sounds like ZSP is a piece of junk. Let Bloomberg realign your expectations:

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND

S&P500 is at 15% YTD. The Dow is at 18%. Obviously a lot higher TTM for both. Any index ETF that isn’t doing it wrong would get you basically that. That’s the baseline. Smarter does even better.

——

I don’t need to be first or at the top of the heap. Just comfortably sitting somewhere near the top end works well enough for me. You have your investment strategy and I have mine. Both can be successful. It does sound though like your blood is boiling on this topic which I don’t understand. Instead, focus on your own goals and achievements. If you meet your own expectations, that’s all you really need. That’s why I’m happy regardless of your deprecation.