Goldy

Jason’s been a realtor for almost a decade. Got his broker’s license a few years back, and operates a one-man shop out of his home. The clients are local. His turf is local. He knows every house, property, barn and shed in the horsey suburban area he lives in. Lately life’s been hell.

“No sales since June,” he says. “Not just for me. I mean, no sales. Period. For anybody.”

With one exception, that is. After endless months of marketing and showings, J was able to find a buyer for a $2.5 million estate on 15 acres of prime, rolling countryside. “It finally sold for two-point-one,” he told me, “which was a huge bargain. But then the appraiser came.”

The lender was one of the big banks, and the woman sent to establish a valuation was brutal. Actually she turned out to be sweet and cute, but her report was crushing. “She told me, ‘I hope your client has lots of capital,’” says Jim, “and then she said they were appraising it at only one-point five.”

Whether the deal closes or not is an open question. There’s a good chance the seller will have to take back hundreds of thousands in financing to make it work – or the buyer might simply walk, it now being ‘proven’ to him that he overpaid, by a bank with little  stomach for risk.

This is no isolated event. Deals are falling apart with regularity as buyers and sellers discover how lenders are feeling these days. Ask any real estate lawyer in southern Ontario about missed closings and defaults. They’ll probably report more of them in the last months than in the preceding decades.

This is how banks deal with exposure. It’s quiet, effective, definitive. And it’s helping to cripple the market.

Meanwhile the bank’s regulator, OSFI, is planning to show up and shoot the wounded. The new universal stress test would force Jason’s buyer to not only cough up a lot more equity, but then qualify for lending at the current rate + 2%. This requirement would be regardless of whether he found a down payment of $450,000, or a million. Just like with weightlifting or bobsledding, everyone has to pee in a jar (so to speak). No exceptions.

Days ago the right-wing Fraser Institute came out swinging against OSFI, calling the test needless and harmful. It will hurt the mortgage market, it said (something small lenders and independent brokers are terrified of), drive borrowers away from the banks and into the arms of cheesier lenders like credit unions, and (of course) suck equity out of everybody’s house as overall prices decline along with credit.

“The main point of the paper is that the stress test is not necessary,” adds the author. “Cities like Vancouver and Toronto are very different from other parts of the country and there is potential for housing prices to be depressed because buyers simply don’t have enough buying power. But that also depends on a number of factors, including policies being taken recently from the provincial, municipal and federal governments.”

Indeed. Universal rent controls in Ontario have not even started to have their dampening effect on condo prices. Toronto is still actively designing its knucklehead Empty Houses Tax so it can be as vacuous, provincial and myopic as Vancouver. And in BC the socialists now running the place have not yet brought in the across-the-board speculation tax which is widely expected, while fostering the myth that government can actually create affordable housing. It can’t. Only the market does that.

Well, a new report this week from Citi forecasts that the Canadian housing market will soon enter a “disorderly stage” as sales tank, lenders recoil and sellers freak. Capital Economics housing perma-bull David Madani is forecasting the mother of corrections for this coming winter. “With interest rates on the rise and mortgage financing rules likely to be tightened significantly later this year, the worst is still to come,” he says. Housing starts are down. The seriously-lagging Teranet index has just recorded the first monthly price decline. And interest rates continue to stiffen – a US hike coming in December and our bank moving a few times in 2018. Plus the stress test. Oh boy.

But wait. Here’s Royal LePage. Apparently everyone else is wrong. It’s all good.

“Uneven regional economic growth has plagued Canada for much of the past decade, a challenge most evident in the nation’s housing markets,” claims corporate boss and cheerleader Phil Soper.  “For the first time since 2011, we are seeing real estate in all five of our largest cities appreciate at a manageable, healthy clip. Canadian housing is enjoying a Goldilocks moment — not too hot, and not too cold.”

Or, Goldy just croaked.

233 comments ↓

#1 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.13.17 at 2:47 pm

The housing market is crashing hard. In the GTA prices are crashing and crashing hard. Sales are crashing and crashing hard. Deals falling through and buyers walking away. You dirty SHYSTERS are horrible ugly people who have financial blood on their hamds. The laws need to be changed so SHYSTERS can be locked up for their financial crimes.
Happy Housing Crash Everyone Everyone ! :-)

#2 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.13.17 at 2:50 pm

Royal SHYSTER You are true scum of the earth SHYSTERS

#3 SoggyShorts on 10.13.17 at 2:56 pm

Honestly I don’t understand why anyone is against a stress test. I’ve never applied for a mortgage, but I always assumed it was already a thing.
If rates are something that changes all the time, how can you lend someone money if they can just barely afford the payments today?
Would you lend someone money if the payments were going to be exactly 100% of what they can afford right now?

#4 Doug t on 10.13.17 at 2:57 pm

there are so many Bubbles out there it looks like a scene from Willy Wonka – if they all pop at once its gonna be one hell of an economic apocolypse

RATM

#5 Fuzzy Camel on 10.13.17 at 3:00 pm

Wow that’s a lot of bad news for Canada’s crumby housing market!

Here’s another:
https://globalnews.ca/news/3652652/canada-pandemic-public-health-agency-canada-funeral-home/

Our benevolent government is looking for grave diggers! Apparently this winter we are going to have a pandemic that will kill so many people it will overwhelm funeral homes and hospitals. They want to stack bodies in refrigeration trucks and ice rinks.

Couple that with some serious rate hikes, new stress tests, GM threatening to pull out of Canada altogether, Trudeau’s commie tax on small business, and the cherry on top, a substantial drop in population, we have a real mess coming!

If that news article isn’t just fear mongering to sell flu shots, buying a shack in the boonies might be a good buy.

#6 Davinder on 10.13.17 at 3:03 pm

Goldiocks Moment, or Wile E. Coyote Moment? If you’re right, Grant, the Canadian Real Estate industry has run off a cliff but has yet to look down.

#7 rainclouds on 10.13.17 at 3:05 pm

Yet Mr Soper can make those ludicrous claims with any concern of sanctions:

-Because his self interested organization provides the “data” with O oversight.

-His Claims are unchallenged by the media that simply repeats his self serving drivel without one iota of research.

-Governments allow this (fox in the henhouse) behaviour that would be punishable by law in any other financial transaction that is regulated.

Unbelievable. If Mr Madani is correct and all hell breaks out, there will be some VERY angry consumers who wont have to look to far for laying the appropriate blame.

I actually emailed the Housing Minister in BC 2 weeks ago asking how this type of behaviour can continue. Still waiting for an answer. Next one goes to the AG of BC.

What a mess..

#8 Penny Henny on 10.13.17 at 3:12 pm

Wow! Garth does a whole post on playing nice. Leaves the post up for two days. And then the first post is this crap-

#2 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.13.17 at 2:50 pm
Royal SHYSTER You are true scum of the earth SHYSTERS

Like I said, wow!

Are realtors a race? — Garth

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.17 at 3:19 pm

Geez. Happy Housing Crash is on a one two roll!

But I have to agree.
CREA, TREB, BCREA, VREA and all the other alphabet soup collection of real estate shills, pumpers and glorified snake oil salesmen on a commission based salary …… best get ready for this.
No matter what drivel you try and spin …..there’s no hiding it.
The party’s over.

#10 tulips on 10.13.17 at 3:23 pm

Could it be different and special in the Vancouver and lower mainland area? I recall in past year Garth commonly answering that with comments that Vancouver is special and different – it will get hit harder than everywhere else. But no sign of anything like that yet. I cannot see a disorderly stage coming here too. All I can see from my seat is a lot of people selling houses for a lot more than they paid a few short years ago and moving out to the burbs to live mortgage free. And the people from the burbs are going to the interior. I guess in theory if the top end slows and stops, the whole waterfall will turn to a trickle, but I’m not seeing anything close to a price decline here let alone anything disorderly.

Anyone have a good estimate of things to come here when OSFI does its thing?

#11 Duke on 10.13.17 at 3:27 pm

That is what’s happening now, but most mortgage holders still deny their property values are declining.

Realtors must be desperate to make a deal as they don’t have any savings to cover their daily expenses. Many of them don’t have any money to pay taxes next spring. Smart ones already sold their properties but those dumb ones with religious beliefs in RE are already house poor.

Like the first reply of this blog, happy housing crash!!

By the way, I can hardly imagine having a $1mil mortgage even with my $170k yearly salary, but many of my friends in Toronto carry around $1.5mil in mortgage with mere $100k income. That is scary. If you question how they could get $1.5mil mortgage with only $100k income, you can ask any bank and will get an answer that if your capital is more than 35% of the property value, they don’t check your income at all. You don’t even need to show your pay stub. This must soon be the thing of the past.

#12 Party on Garth on 10.13.17 at 3:33 pm

The following numbers are from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) as of the end of the first quarter, 2017:

Total credit to the non-financial sector (core debt), % of GDP

Canada – 295.5
Greece – 295.5

https://www.bis.org/statistics/tables_f.pdf

#13 Engineer with no job on 10.13.17 at 3:34 pm

Soft landing of the house market is the best interest for everybody in Canada. Squeeze the bubble too hard and too fast is not a good strategy to deal with the issue.

#14 Engineer with no job on 10.13.17 at 3:42 pm

Re: Duke

“I can hardly imagine having a $1mil mortgage even with my $170k yearly salary, but many of my friends in Toronto carry around $1.5mil in mortgage with mere $100k income.”

That’s why Vancouver specials exist!

#15 AGuyInVancouver on 10.13.17 at 3:50 pm

#10 tulips
Check out the number of listing in Dunbar vs everywhere else in Vancouver. In this leafy, largely SFH area there are more listings than almost every other MLS “neighbourhood” in Vancouver. Inventory is building up, it just needs someone to pull on one of the cards to hopefully bring it crashing down.

On another note, the FP has a really interesting piece today on inflation, interest rates and why 2017 looks a lot like 1964:
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/inflation-trap

#16 Penny Henny on 10.13.17 at 3:58 pm

#8 Penny Henny on 10.13.17 at 3:12 pm
Wow! Garth does a whole post on playing nice. Leaves the post up for two days. And then the first post is this crap-

#2 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.13.17 at 2:50 pm
Royal SHYSTER You are true scum of the earth SHYSTERS

Like I said, wow!

Are realtors a race? — Garth

/////////////////////

Of course not.
But neither are Boomers or Millenials or Ex Politicians.

So defining a whole group of people as horrible, ugly and scum of the earth is acceptable again.

“The only message I have is respect. Disagree all you want, but don’t attack.”-Garth

#17 PastThePeak on 10.13.17 at 4:01 pm

#8 Penny Henny

And YOU have greatly offended me by writing “crap” in your response. Some of us find that repugnant you know! Why don’t you please consider others feelings about the things your write! Not nice.

#18 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.13.17 at 4:03 pm

To all the SCM bashers out there!
Smoking Man is My Hero!
I wanna be fan #1!
I love people who stir the pot!
Smoking man is a #1 S**t Disturber!
Right or wrong he has a light bulb in his head!

#19 Grey Dog on 10.13.17 at 4:05 pm

The View from Unionville, homes that have been up for sale since May 24, still haven’t been sold. Real estate around me is DEAD. Last November 2016, homes in my neighbourhood would sell in a day, or at least within a week!

#20 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.13.17 at 4:06 pm

I can only hope for angish and gnashing of teeth for all the players in our housing scam up to date.

One of the most egregious wealth frauds in world history!

#21 tired-its-friday on 10.13.17 at 4:07 pm

What a hypocrite.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/morneau-company-france-ethics-1.4351933

Bill takes benefit of France’s tax avoidance loop holes. Same is done by Canadian businesses, then it is ‘unfair’.

#22 PastThePeak on 10.13.17 at 4:12 pm

Whether it is a crash or a slow burn down, eventually markets that get ahead of themselves will correct (eventually). It ALWAYS happens. Repeat again – always! When stock prices run too far ahead, eventually there are factors which trigger the unwinding of some of those gains. Prices revert more to historical average PE ratios.

With housing, there are a few factors, but certainly price to income is one. You can only stretch so high, before it will revert back to what is financially manageable. Only in markets where land is “truly”, geologically scarce, do the prices rise a bit higher.

I have a few friends in the GTA and they all talk about TO as being a “world class city”, and look at the housing prices in London, NY, and Hong Kong. However, as a recent article outlined, the RE in those markets has been at it for decades longer than TO. The prices in those cities didn’t go 20% higher year on year. They incremented, on average, by single digits. They have just been at it longer. So I fully expect GTA to unwind.

Is the BC lower mainland different? I would guess in some ways – smaller market, easier for foreign money to have impact, more geographically constrained, and some Canadians with money want to move there too. Still, even that has its limits. Unless the majority of purchasers in BC are really “rich” then the same affordability requirements matter there too.

#23 Howard on 10.13.17 at 4:19 pm

Jason’s been a realtor for almost a decade. Got his broker’s license a few years back, and operates a one-man shop out of his home. The clients are local. His turf is local. He knows every house, property, barn and shed in the horsey suburban area he lives in.

This sounds like a John Cougar Mellencamp song.

#24 Ha Ha on 10.13.17 at 4:31 pm

#18 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.13.17 at 4:03 pm

To all the SCM bashers out there!
Smoking Man is My Hero!
I wanna be fan #1!
I love people who stir the pot!
Smoking man is a #1 S**t Disturber!
Right or wrong he has a light bulb in his head!
_______________________________________
Too bad its burned out!

#25 Smoking Man on 10.13.17 at 4:38 pm

#18 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.13.17 at 4:03 pm
To all the SCM bashers out there!
Smoking Man is My Hero!
I wanna be fan #1!
I love people who stir the pot!
Smoking man is a #1 S**t Disturber!
Right or wrong he has a light bulb in his head!

I think of it as fertilizing debate. If the ship is going left I go right. Or the other way around. But the ship is listing badly to the left. And with out intervention this sucker is going to sink.

Cherrs

#26 INFLATION EXISTS IN POLOZ CANADA! on 10.13.17 at 4:39 pm

Where is Mark’s deflationary theory? One pack of exotic Banana Chips at your local Fortino’s was 99 cents, now it’s risen to $1.29! 30% INFLATION!

#27 YVR Update on 10.13.17 at 4:45 pm

“Capital Economics housing perma-bull David Madani is forecasting the mother of corrections for this coming winter.”

This guy says it every year for the last decade. Unbelievable he still has a job. Believable if he has ulterior motives.

#28 Howard on 10.13.17 at 4:48 pm

This guy just stinks to high heaven. Great pic for finance minister, PM excrement-for-brains!

Finance Minister Bill Morneau waited 2 years to disclose company that owns his French villa to ethics watchdog
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/morneau-company-france-ethics-1.4351933?cmp=rss

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.17 at 4:58 pm

And CREA switches the laundering machine to the “spin” cycle

https://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAKBN1CI1R1-OCADN

#30 Spock on 10.13.17 at 5:04 pm

I will take “Goldy just croaked” for $1,000

#31 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.13.17 at 5:05 pm

#23 Howard on 10.13.17 at 4:19 pm
Jason’s been a realtor for almost a decade. Got his broker’s license a few years back, and operates a one-man shop out of his home. The clients are local. His turf is local. He knows every house, property, barn and shed in the horsey suburban area he lives in.

This sounds like a John Cougar Mellencamp song.
————–
Me thinks, more like Tom Petty.
“Free Falling” Real Estate.

#32 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.13.17 at 5:07 pm

Garth,
I like the earlier posting time.
More sobar comments, before the blog dogs get drunk.

#33 VanMan on 10.13.17 at 5:19 pm

A few posts back I was accused of being a realtor…well, couldn’t be further from the truth. My comments about AirBnb being an issue of epic proportions in Vancouver is simply based on the actual happenings of personal friends and acquaintances.

Many people have jumped on board and are simply running businesses without reporting income. I dont know this for certain, but that’s what they tell me. The other issue is that it vastly decreases the supply of long term rentals and ownership opportunities of locals as there are the few that have snapped up as many units as possible simply to list on the AirBnb platform. I’ve said a few times on here already that I know more than a dozen people doing exactly this… I am not one of them. I realize a dozen does not make it an epidemic, but if I know a dozen or more than I’m sure others do too. All you need to do is look at the volume of listings on AirBnb in Vancouver. 10 years ago this wasn’t an issue.

Now my opinion is that those looking to Vancouver and hoping for a collapse are simply wishful thinkers. Vancouver has become a destination city for wealthy individuals from across the globe. It is no longer a local community. If you don’t agree that’s fine, but you’ll be waiting a lifetime for prices to come crashing down. Vancouver is not a boom or bust town, but rather a place of stable climate, unmatched beauty, oceans, mountains, entertainment, clean air, clean water, stable governments, tolerance, and job opportunities for future industries such as tech and energy. The proof is out there… those that come, do not want to leave.

#34 WelcometoSlurrey on 10.13.17 at 5:24 pm

For Maths Sake………….. Looking at MLS Stats for the past 7 years. In Sept 2010, median price in White Rock was 716,00 . Sept 2017 it is now 1.308 mill. That gives an approx. annualized return of 8.99 % . If you take into account fees, maintenance, closing costs, realtor fees etc. Your still looking at an annual return of just under 8%. Add leverage (at current rates) to equation …… if you purchased a property with 200,000 down and leveraged the remainder and sold today ( with fees and paying outstanding mortgage balance), you would have over 750000 ……………… approx. 18% annualized return vs 6% in balanced portfolio…………

Why not compare bicycles to fish? Anyone who puts 100% of their net worth into any one asset is gambling. Sometimes it works. Sometimes not. But don’t call it an investment. — Garth

#35 young & foolish on 10.13.17 at 5:24 pm

“So defining a whole group of people as horrible, ugly and scum of the earth is acceptable again.” — HP

I agree … Happy Housing Crash Guy has nothing of value to add here … just the same rubbish every day.

#36 Howard on 10.13.17 at 5:31 pm

#31 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.13.17 at 5:05 pm
#23 Howard on 10.13.17 at 4:19 pm
Jason’s been a realtor for almost a decade. Got his broker’s license a few years back, and operates a one-man shop out of his home. The clients are local. His turf is local. He knows every house, property, barn and shed in the horsey suburban area he lives in.

This sounds like a John Cougar Mellencamp song.
————–
Me thinks, more like Tom Petty.
“Free Falling” Real Estate.

————————–

RIP to that delightful weirdo.

#37 young & foolish on 10.13.17 at 5:36 pm

“Vancouver has become a destination city for wealthy individuals from across the globe. It is no longer a local community.”

This is worthy of consideration … is the current urbanisation rush not a significant part of the reason prices have been pushed up (including Toronto)?

#38 SCM explaining myself on 10.13.17 at 5:37 pm

I would appreciate the opportunity to go over a few things and respond to many of the comments I’ve read over the past few days. First and foremost, I have to repeat, I did not come here to troll. Just because you don’t like a countervailing opinion backed up by facts, doesn’t mean it’s trolling. I’ve been a long time reader of this blog for many years. On and off at first but more and more frequent and interested in the past year or 2. As a Screwed Canadian Millennial, I really got sick and tired of the constant millennial bashing on this blog. Constant. At least own up to that. Be honest. We all know it to be true. So I started posting comments to stick up for millennials and provide an alternate perspective that was clearly, CLEARLY, lacking on this blog. I was immediately attacked for it by an angry mob. That’s fine. I can deal with that. I’m not even complaining about that. People made weird sexual references, tried to psychoanalyze me, came up with conspiracy theories that I was a journalist, it was really bizarre. A few people here really hated to see an alternate viewpoint. I never returned in kind. I didn’t yell and swear at people here. Despite what people thought, me “DELETED” comments were usually quite harmless, not the vitriol that people assumed them to be. Most of the time, I actually ignored the most venomous and vicious attackers. What really goes beyond the pale is the sheer hypocrisy that somehow it’s okay to bash on millennials incessantly, but the moment one, ONE millennial, fights back a LITTLE BIT and argues not with venom and hate but with facts and research, I’m the troll? I’m the divisive one? For backing up an entire generation that has been mocked and attacked relentlessly on this blog. No. It’s the hypocrisy that I can’t stand more than anything. The lies. Calling me a white nationalist or a racist because I dare point out that there’s no labour shortage in this country, there’s no real wage growth, and that many many Canadians are hurting and being left behind. I hope this comment sticks. I don’t think I wrote anything here that broke any rules. I’m a fan of Garth and I’m a fan of this blog. I find it interesting and informative. Thanks to those who had nice things to say, and even if you didn’t agree with me, for saying you appreciated the different viewpoint.

I would leave with this quote from Garth himself. Directed to me.

“You posts are interesting, massively-researched and carefully constructed”

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/09/12/war-3/comment-page-1/#comment-540763

Sincerely,

Screwed Canadian Millennial

If you repent for saying Boomers enjoy watching people suffer, you can stay. On a short leash. — Garth

#39 A123 on 10.13.17 at 5:41 pm

Fuzzy Camel
Our benevolent government is looking for grave diggers! Apparently this winter we are going to have a pandemic that will kill so many people it will overwhelm funeral homes and hospitals. They want to stack bodies in refrigeration trucks and ice rinks.
————————
Read your article more carefully. There is no prediction of a pandemic this winter.The govt is just preparing for a pandemic which may happen any time, which could be 10 years from now, or next year. This is smart to prepare. But don’t stir up rumours when that is not the fact.

#40 WelcometoSlurrey on 10.13.17 at 5:42 pm

Why not compare bicycles to fish? Anyone who puts 100% of their net worth into any one asset is gambling. Sometimes it works. Sometimes not. But don’t call it an investment. — Garth
__________________________________________
Just pointing out the significance of leveraging at such low rates, if you have 200,000 you cannot leverage a balanced portfolio. > 8% return may be high for real estate now, but long term average for real estate is still greater than the low rates presented today. Even if rates get the bump over the next year, will we ever see rates greater than 5% ? Any mortgage rates that are 4% or below, might provide you with a greater leveraged return on your investment in the long run ( speaking to the millenial generation) …… rental rates are not low in the lower mainland Garth ………

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.17 at 5:45 pm

@#35 Young and foolish
” agree … Happy Housing Crash Guy has nothing of value to add here … just the same rubbish every day.”
+++++++

Ah but deep down it is kinda amusing.

He/she reminds me of that old Russian joke about “When do Russian men smile?”

When the secret police show up to arrest him in the middle of the night and mistakenly take his next door neighbor off to jail…..

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.17 at 5:47 pm

My goodness.
SCM is back!
Like a pandemic flu virus.
Unstoppable.
Now if only we could harness that power for good.

#43 Tony on 10.13.17 at 5:52 pm

Re: #3 SoggyShorts on 10.13.17 at 2:56 pm

The problem is the stress test needs to be enacted right now before Poloz says something stupid this October 25th to the extend of interest rates never going up again. They’ll wait too long and home prices will rebound sharply before any new stress test takes place.

#44 young & foolish on 10.13.17 at 5:52 pm

“I can only hope for angish and gnashing of teeth for all the players in our housing scam up to date.”

Why is it a scam? Did anyone force you to buy? Prices were always available for all to see, and lending was based on cheap rates. Is Amazon at PE of 511 also a “scam”?

#45 Rent vs Own In Van on 10.13.17 at 5:55 pm

I momentarily considered purchasing a home in Vancouver and then I did that Maths. Renting is so much cheaper than owning in Vancouver now, I cannot see any reason as to why you would even consider buying. People obviously are which perplexes me, so I started a blog comparing similar properties to rent/buy in the same neighborhood to hopefully create some discussion. Maybe my numbers are way off…

The first property I looked at was a Duplex in East Van.

http://rentorown.ca/2017/10/05/east-vancouver-duplex/

#46 Nick on 10.13.17 at 5:55 pm

Tons of new listings coming online since the start of October. “Oh look we rebounded in September! Now is the time to list!”

Lol

#47 Lee on 10.13.17 at 5:55 pm

#23 Howard,

Good one.

#48 young & foolish on 10.13.17 at 5:56 pm

“Ah but deep down it is kinda amusing.” CEF

Yeah, amusing to children and the simple minded.

#49 Lee on 10.13.17 at 5:57 pm

When I read today’s blog I thought to myself that it was going to be a big Happy Housing Crash Everyone day. He’s off to a good start.

#50 young & foolish on 10.13.17 at 5:59 pm

“Just pointing out the significance of leveraging at such low rates … ”

This is true. Leverage plays a huge role in RE investing. But you need to buy right (both location and timing matter).

#51 Engineer with no job on 10.13.17 at 5:59 pm

Re:33 Van Man

I do agree with you on Vancouver. I just wonder the impact on local business to find the work force given the high living cost in the area.

#52 Stone on 10.13.17 at 6:00 pm

2% over posted rate mortgage applications already exist and has been for some time. My banker advised me of this last year when I considered buying a house when my current home was up for sale. The issue appears to be that TDSR or GDSR limits of 32% and 40% are not being respected where an algorithm decides if you can qualify for more than those percentages. I was approved with a TDSR of 54% which I thought was insane. He said it was because I was considered a good risk. I told him that I didn’t want to live on cat food only and have no mad money to play with. It’s a good thing that appraisers have been advised by the main banks to slash valuations though. That should hopefully help unassuming purchasers to rethink their real estate purchases.

Happy to be a renter. At least I can determine what I feel is affordable and not overextend myself. Also, it lets me keep a good handle on what my true consumption costs are. No surprises = peace of mind. I look forward to seeing stringent OSFI rules on this topic come into play soon and let the appraisers continue to show more realistic real estate valuations.

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.13.17 at 6:02 pm

#25 SM
“fertilizing the conversation”
——–
Ah, so tempting.
But not going there.
Garth, wants us to play nice.

#54 Tony on 10.13.17 at 6:02 pm

Re: #38 SCM explaining myself on 10.13.17 at 5:37 pm

I only attack Canadian Millennials because they blame the boomers for the housing bubble when in fact it was the Canadian Millennials themselves who created the housing bubble by paying too much for housing. Why this is only akin to Canada no one yet knows why?

#55 RyYYZ on 10.13.17 at 6:05 pm

It’s not much of a sample, but I’ve noticed a couple of houses with “For Sale” signs up on them for several weeks now in my neighbourhood. It was only a few months ago that a townhouse unit exactly like mine, other than the finished basement and backyard deck, sold in a day or two for something like $380,000. I (probably over-) paid $220,000 for mine in 2013. And now another one is just sitting there, collecting figurative dust. Presumably they’ve overpriced it for where the market is now, but as I say just a few months ago these things were regularly going for over asking in bidding wars.

#56 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.13.17 at 6:07 pm

#34 WelcometoSlurrey on 10.13.17 at 5:24 pm
For Maths Sake………….. Looking at MLS Stats for the past 7 years. In Sept 2010, median price in White Rock was 716,00 . Sept 2017 it is now 1.308 mill. That gives an approx. annualized return of 8.99 % . If you take into account fees, maintenance, closing costs, realtor fees etc. Your still looking at an annual return of just under 8%. Add leverage (at current rates) to equation …… if you purchased a property with 200,000 down and leveraged the remainder and sold today ( with fees and paying outstanding mortgage balance), you would have over 750000 ……………… approx. 18% annualized return vs 6% in balanced portfolio…………

Why not compare bicycles to fish? Anyone who puts 100% of their net worth into any one asset is gambling. Sometimes it works. Sometimes not. But don’t call it an investment. — Garth
—————–
Garth,
Can’t argue with RE addicted Lower Mainlanders.
They are all financial geniuses.
Real Estate will always go up.

#57 Stone on 10.13.17 at 6:12 pm

#38 SCM explaining myself on 10.13.17 at 5:37 pm

Why are you so desperate?

#58 Spock on 10.13.17 at 6:13 pm

#38 SCM explaining myself

Welcome back. That was short lived.

I have asked this 10 times before – still waiting for your data to back up your statement where you said Boomers do not give anything back.

So do not make claims that you are backed up with facts and apologize.

I am 30 years removed from being a boomer but your arrogance (not backed up by facts or data) is offensive.

Hopefully you learned a lesson for free (in large part to Garth) because if you were fired from your job – you would not get it back and there would be no reference letter for next job.

It is not what you convey but also how you covey the same that matters in life. Think about it and if you understand it – then implement it.

————————————
#38 SCM explaining myself on 10.13.17 at 5:37 pm

Just because you don’t like a countervailing opinion backed up by facts, doesn’t mean it’s trolling.

#59 Entrepreneur on 10.13.17 at 6:13 pm

TGF and have a good weekend, everyone.

And try to post only once or twice, give GT a break.

If you post more than twice I suggest you go outside and do some physical work. And no excuses, get moving, NOW.

TGF, time out.

#60 SCM on 10.13.17 at 6:18 pm

I don’t think I said “Boomers enjoy watching people suffer.” I don’t recall ever saying that. But if I did then I apologize. That was not my intent and I don’t think that. And btw, for the record, of course I never meant ALL boomers. Like I said to you before Garth, I generalized an entire generation (boomers), just the same way you do towards millennials. I was trying to come up with a better term that would specify a particular subset (ConBoomers, BoomerCons, Gimmes, etc). I never meant the entire generation.

But when it comes to certain policies, I think it is fair to say that boomers, in general or perhaps those who post here, do oppose policies that benefit a tremendous amount of workers. I don’t know why they do, but they do. The minimum wage would be a prime example. It’s been proven that of course when workers have more disposable income, the economy does better. All the masses of job losses in Seattle that I was promised, never came to fruition. So why the relentless defense of poverty-inducing starvation wages? I was going to post this article the other day.

Time to follow America’s lead on minimum wage: Cohn
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/10/11/time-to-follow-americas-lead-on-minimum-wage-cohn.html

I do feel that we are inundated with corporate propaganda that somehow corporations that make billions in profits, and hoard trillions offshore collectively, somehow can’t afford to pay their workers a decent wage? Some are more susceptible to this propaganda than others. Trump is right now bragging about how well the stock market is doing, corporate profits are at all time highs, yet they need tax CUTS? Goldman Sachs needs a tax cut? George Soros needs a tax cut? I don’t think so.

Why is it that capitalism and the free market are so infallible, yet when the market determines that WAGES MUST RISE, then all the sudden we hate capitalism and the free market, and come up with absurd anti-Canadian programs to suppress wages?

I’m always open to an invigorating discussion on economic policy, Garth. Especially with a former Canadian Member of Parliament. That’s one of the biggest reasons why I enjoy this blog.

#61 Smartalox on 10.13.17 at 6:19 pm

@ Tulips #10:

Can anyone project the impact of the OSFI stress test?

I did a sensitivity analysis based on what a mortgage payment might be for a $1.5M property in Vancouver with 20% down, based on a 5-year posted rate with a big 5 bank.

Such terms are well beyond my cash flow, with payments around $10k per month. But given my liquid cash flow of around $7500/mo, I set out to figure how much of a reduction on that $1.5M house would have to be, to match my $7500/mo budget, at a today’s rates, plus 2%.

My prediction was that it would take a cut of about 45% from $1.5M, to keep payments at $7500/mo, in order to pass a 200bp stress test.

The haircut was about 55% for the 300bp stress test, proposed for renewals.

That model assumes that as a buyer, that’s all I can afford, that I’m just making ends meet at that payment. Of course real rates will be lower, but real expenses will also be higher.

So, I’d expect to see a minimum 40% haircut in prices with the new rules.

Of course, as prices fall, expect to see a lot of properties flood onto the market as speculators and possibly money launderers, hustle to get fair value for their cash out of the markets.

40% might only be the beginning…

#62 Cici on 10.13.17 at 6:21 pm

Your “Too Scary” post got taken down. Please put it back up so that my boyfriend can read it…once he gets a load of that he’ll no longer think I’m a high-maintenance super freak, just a super sweet angel

#63 Greater Fool Headquarters on 10.13.17 at 6:24 pm

Clearly, Vancouver and the lower mainland have an abnormally large supply of Greater Fools…

I see houses go on sale in my neighbourhood every week, and sell within 2 weeks, like clockwork. Prices continuing to tick higher and higher with every sale. I wasn’t willing to pay $500k for a house in the burbs years ago (Maple Ridge), and yet those same houses are now almost a MILLION?!

I am not sure a correction could possibly erase enough of this bubble to reach affordability again. I mean, are we really expecting prices to crash by 50-75% here? Of course not. Never happen. The bubble may pop, but it will be patched again before it has deflated enough.

My only option to purchase is to leave the area for good, so instead I sit here renting waiting to be evicted so my landlord can take advantage of the market and sell out from under me.

Is it still called FOMO when you are pretty sure you actually DID miss out?

#64 The flippers seem to be here on 10.13.17 at 6:24 pm

What is happening in Ottawa? There is nothing on the market except houses that have had all the bells and whistles added and want the buyer to pay through the nose. I have never seen so many homes that look like a flipper has done them up. The market is up 7% since last year, or so we’re told.
Zolo trends has given up in Ottawa. The last time they reported was May 2017. At least there was some truth there.
The newspaper is praising the areas around the new LRT stations and everyone seems to think their home is the greatest investment around.
I have been renting for awhile and am getting tired to being told that the owner wants to sell. Yes, I can stay, but I have to put up with people traipsing through my home and risk being told I need to leave on short notice. I rented for 11 months when this happened 2 years ago. Then I came here and the owner thinks that he may sell this coming spring. Any drop in prices just can’t seem to come fast enough. Anyone know what happened to Zolo trends?

#65 Alberta Guy on 10.13.17 at 6:26 pm

Who can comment on USD.CAD cup and handle pattern?

http://schrts.co/GzpwC3

#66 Russ on 10.13.17 at 6:27 pm

SCM explaining myself on 10.13.17 at 5:37 pm

I would leave with this quote from Garth himself. Directed to me.

“You posts are interesting, massively-researched and carefully constructed”

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/09/12/war-3/comment-page-1/#comment-540763

Sincerely,

Screwed Canadian Millennial

If you repent for saying Boomers enjoy watching people suffer, you can stay. On a short leash. — Garth
=============================

Welcome back Mille,

I enjoy your point of view as a youngster, most of the time. But you are really ill-informed to think that all boomers had it good & easy.

Stay away from that myopic rant, don’t worry and be happy.

Why don’t you talk with some BMRs born after 1956? And you will see they struggled in the shadow of the early ones who got the house before inflation and the few supervisor jobs.
Not unlike the Gen X who precede your peoples.

#67 Smoking Man on 10.13.17 at 6:27 pm

Welcome Back SCM. Typing into this little square orange box then submitting is addictive.

#68 SCM on 10.13.17 at 6:34 pm

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.17 at 5:47 pm
SCM is back!
Like a pandemic flu virus.

—————————

Have I ever said anything so hateful or vitriolic to anyone here? I don’t think so. I’m not complaining, it’s fine. Like I said, I can take it, I laugh it off. But to accuse me of being the trolly, hateful, divisive one is laughable when I receive comments like this on a daily basis.

#69 Pepito on 10.13.17 at 6:40 pm

“…while fostering the myth that government can actually create affordable housing. It can’t. Only the market does that.”
_____________________________

Not counting all your bs about job creators and risk takers, that’s got to be one of the most moronic claims you’ve made here in a while.

Gonna disappear this one too? But, of course, why even ask.

Governments are the worst providers of shelter. Not their job. – Garth

#70 Archie on 10.13.17 at 6:43 pm

THANK God for Garth….He knows and that’s all there is to it.

#71 WelcometoSlurrey on 10.13.17 at 6:48 pm

#56 – They are all financial geniuses.
Real Estate will always go up.

——————————————————————-
I’m sorry you disagree with my math? Just like balanced portfolios, real estate does always go up in the long run, at what rate of return is the question. I merely pointed out the last 7 years of returns and the effects of leveraging. So genius, tell me what part of your investment portfolio has achieved greater than an 18% annualized return ?

#72 S.Bby on 10.13.17 at 6:49 pm

#10 tulips

It is happening:
http://myrealtycheck.ca/

#73 Danny on 10.13.17 at 6:51 pm

12 listings around Toronto’s…Islington Ave and Dundas Street…..on market for approximately 8 weeks and not selling.
Yet only one listing for a 1980’s condo lowered price this week from $850,000 down to $800,000….1980’s…..unit in original condition.
Two years ago this unit type sold for approximately $600,000.
Nothing selling….condo fees around. $900 monthly.
Guess speculators are hoping for Santa Claus…to come buying.
Banks tough on new mortgages because they are probably worried about the mortgages they are already holding.

Happy Housing Crash Everyone..guy…the big banks are agreeing with you…..real estate party invitations are being shredded.

At Bloor and Islington……..Two more years and over 1,000 condo units will be ready for occupancy. Plus….
New planned Etobicoke Centre at Bloor Street West and Kipling Avenue…..estimated over 12 high rise planned…..probably over 5,000 new condominium units planned for….to be built from 4 to 8 years unless the condo market chokes.
Next 2 years will be interesting….

I am just grateful for new rent control…Thank you “Government “….Real Estate Agents hate you…..that’s not new.

#74 Sydneysider on 10.13.17 at 6:51 pm

SCM is one of the most amusing commentators here, so I for one am happy to see him/her/it back, even if my herd is the usual butt of his/her/its humour.

Some evidence of education there too: the kind of student one would like to have in a tutorial class, but not in the front row of a lecture.

#75 Howard on 10.13.17 at 7:02 pm

#60 SCM on 10.13.17 at 6:18 pm

Given your positions on certain issues which I won’t mention but I think you know which I’m referring to, why the infatuation with a globalist like Trudeau whose viewpoint is completely opposite to your own?

Is it his hair?

#76 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.13.17 at 7:03 pm

I don’t see much of a slow down in BC or the Lower Mainland or in Kelowna. Prices still rising and properties selling quickly. No crash or slow melt here.

#77 Dolce Vita on 10.13.17 at 7:04 pm

#10 tulips

32% drop in the number of mortgages. 7% drop in purchasing power. Post Oct. 2016 +2% stress test impact on insured mortgages.

“…a lot of people selling houses for a lot more than they paid a few short years ago and moving out to the burbs to live mortgage free”.

Lucky and smart they got out now.

This month in the Lower Mainland, list price drops = 645, up = 194 for a net list price value drop of $-79,970,046. Zolo.ca shows every Vancouver detached category of home selling below list, then again, a Realtor site.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.17 at 7:04 pm

@#48 Young and foolish
“Yeah, amusing to children and the simple minded”
******

Soooo.
What part of Russia are you from ?

#79 Howard on 10.13.17 at 7:07 pm

#58 Spock on 10.13.17 at 6:13 pm

SCM’s mistake is to personally insult Boomers, which is childish and never appropriate. What I’ve found is that nothing drives Boomers crazier than simply pointing out how good they had it. No insults necessary. Simply mention how they had the best of everything. They hate that for some reason. The rebuttal usually includes some mention of an iPhone.

#80 race police on 10.13.17 at 7:11 pm

#8 Penny Henny on 10.13.17 at 3:12 pm

Wow! Garth does a whole post on playing nice. Leaves the post up for two days. And then the first post is this crap-

#2 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.13.17 at 2:50 pm
Royal SHYSTER You are true scum of the earth SHYSTERS

Like I said, wow!

Are realtors a race? — Garth

—-

Since when is decency reserved to race?

#81 Greg on 10.13.17 at 7:12 pm

#38 SCM explaining myself on 10.13.17 at 5:37 pm

If you repent for saying Boomers enjoy watching people suffer, you can stay. On a short leash. — Garth

—-

Bravo Garth.

And SCM, I may have been a supporter (aside from those other sympathetic posts you likely ghost-wrote) but it was lukewarm at best.

But I see potential kid. You have a good jab. Use it wisely. Stick to the facts and fight a clean fight. Feel free to call people out without calling them names, especially when they hit below the belt and devolve into bashing your generation. Such arguments belie a weak position so be the bigger guy/gal and rise above it by walking away.

You do that and you may gain something far more valuable than attention … you’ll gain respect.

Meanwhile I for one will be sitting back and thoroughly enjoying the whole spectacle of it all.

Good luck kid.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.17 at 7:12 pm

@#68 Screwed Canuck Millenial
“Have I ever said anything so hateful or vitriolic to anyone here? I don’t think so. I’m not complaining, it’s fine. Like I said, I can take it, I laugh it off. But to accuse me of being the trolly, hateful, divisive one is laughable when I receive comments like this on a daily basis.
******

If you care to review the comments after you were so ignominiously “punted”……I for one, didnt cackle with glee at your “banishment”, so, welcome back.

As for the “pandemic virus” comment.
Hateful? Vitriolic?
Did Young and Foolish steal your funny bone or are you in “Millenial Mode” right now?

I compared your RETURN as an omnipotent….unstoppable……. thing ….
Perhaps I should have been more politically correct?

SCM
“Rising from the ashes like a mythical Pheonix ”

feel better now?.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.17 at 7:14 pm

Almost forgot.

Happy Happy Happy HOUSING CRASH EVERYONE!

#84 Russ on 10.13.17 at 7:17 pm

Smoking Man on 10.13.17 at 6:27 pm

Welcome Back SCM. Typing into this little square orange box then submitting is addictive.
===============================
You get orange?

Was that a Belfountain Store upgrade?

All I got is a dim white (sorry, can’t say white), Caucasian box.

#85 Howard on 10.13.17 at 7:26 pm

“Trudeau and Morneau can ‘income sprinkle’ their wealth, but you can’t”

http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/joe-oliver-trudeau-and-morneau-can-income-sprinkle-their-wealth-but-you-cant

#86 SCM on 10.13.17 at 7:26 pm

#98 Hypocritical to the Core on 10.12.17 at 6:31 pm
The comments section is ALWAYS filled with massive insults and stereotyping directed towards Millennials, lefties, and SJW’s, Garth included. I understand its your blog your rules, but dont call it fair by any means. The comments section is more than forgiving to right wing causes, how else can you justify smoking aliens many published rants.

Its play nice as long as you dont get offended. SCM was a one man/woman (kid?) who challenged con ideology and would throw their crap right back at them. If this person is a kid, he/she is a prodigy. Calling this person a kid is an intended insult and goes against your preaching..do as I say, not as I do.

I will miss the balance this person tried to give to the conversation.

——————————-

Just came across your comment from yesterday and wanted to say thanks. You nailed it.

Thanks to others as well.

For the record, I am a male adult. Not sure why supposedly mature people on this blog still seem to think that calling someone a girl is a clever insult. Talk about elementary school. I don’t have coodies either btw. Grow up.

#87 mike from mtl on 10.13.17 at 7:27 pm

#54 Tony on 10.13.17 at 6:02 pm
I only attack Canadian Millennials because they blame the boomers for the housing bubble when in fact it was the Canadian Millennials themselves who created the housing bubble by paying too much for housing.
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Complete horse droppings, the current runup has been going on in ernest since the early 2000s, most 90s kids were still in school (and probably still are) in those days.

#88 SCM on 10.13.17 at 7:28 pm

#102 I’m Taking a Knee for SCM on 10.12.17 at 6:48 pm
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/10/12/play-nice/#comment-547555

Geez another amazing comment. Thanks guys. Just reading these now.

#89 Greg on 10.13.17 at 7:28 pm

#68 SCM on 10.13.17 at 6:34 pm
#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.17 at 5:47 pm
SCM is back!
Like a pandemic flu virus.

—————————

Have I ever said anything so hateful or vitriolic to anyone here? I don’t think so. I’m not complaining, it’s fine. Like I said, I can take it, I laugh it off. But to accuse me of being the trolly, hateful, divisive one is laughable when I receive comments like this on a daily basis.

——–

Walk away SCM. Walk away.

#90 TAX AND SPEND AGAIN on 10.13.17 at 7:32 pm

I see the Liberals are at there deceit again. There story with taxes and everyone goes for it. They come up with a plan to take 5 marbles from you then you raise a stink then
there new plan because they listened to you is to only take 2 marbles from you. You get screwed again thinking your a winner because they backed off on original proposal.

#91 NoName on 10.13.17 at 7:39 pm

Interesting read, probably don’t try this at home, unless you are very desperate or self-proclaimed expert…

https://www.statnews.com/2017/10/12/michael-laufer-drug-prices/

#92 Dolce Vita on 10.13.17 at 7:41 pm

#38 SCM explaining myself

If you repent for saying Boomers enjoy watching people suffer, you can stay. On a short leash. — Garth

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

LOL, you caved, you ‘ole softie, you.

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

#60 SCM – 22 comments later, an apology, followed by selective repentance:

“…specify a particular subset (ConBoomers, BoomerCons, Gimmes, etc). I never meant the entire generation.”

SCM must be a Botanist (they love categorizing living things).

The kids persistent, I’ll give him/her that.

I have not read anyone in quite some time so willing to be a piece of young red meat tossed to a bunch of hungry old lions. And, it today’s oversexed environment, that was literal.

Too funny. Pathos writ small.

#93 Dominoes Lining Up on 10.13.17 at 7:42 pm

I wonder how SEARS closing down and liquidating at bargain basement prices in the prime of the Christmas selling season is going to affect other retailers. So many are dependent on this time of year for well over 50% of sales, and they could now be forced to lower prices and cut margins to compete.

Could be a serious external domino to fall on the economy to really accelerate the real estate decline.

January and February job losses may be pretty bad, I am thinking now.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3796556/sears-closing-job-losses/

#94 Prophecy on 10.13.17 at 7:42 pm

#65 USD-CAD index:
We don’t know the future,
But Mark predicts CAD = US$1.25
I’m not Poloz=US$0.50-0.60
Some random dude from Montreal =US$0.38

Some Angry MGTOW bought US dollars when the CAD was at 82 cents U.S. and was scolded by a lady, who was weeks later, shamed by a troll under the screen name “Genitals does not equal gender in Toronto”.

In other words, you’re looking at the wrong place for Forex advice.

#95 Figmund Sreud on 10.13.17 at 7:43 pm

… a new report this week from Citi forecasts that the Canadian housing market will soon enter a “disorderly stage” as sales tank, lenders recoil and sellers freak. …
————————————

Freak? People are already freaked, … have been for a quite a long while! People are freaked about getting priced out of the market and are getting even more and more eager to buy. Be it housing, be it stocks, … it’s true.

I have been talking to a great lot many here in Comox Valley, … and they are all willing to pay high prices for homes, for stocks, … simply because they fear for their very own future (… most of them are quite old here in the valley, btw!) and want to own sumtin’ that has at least some chance of supporting their life style, their growing disabilities, … without reliance on ever going back to work again or worse (… as if there is any work here, … other than servicing old folks!).

Oh, this won’t end well!

F.S., Comox, BC.

#96 BillyBob on 10.13.17 at 7:51 pm

#33 VanMan on 10.13.17 at 5:19 pm

Now my opinion is that those looking to Vancouver and hoping for a collapse are simply wishful thinkers. Vancouver has become a destination city for wealthy individuals from across the globe. It is no longer a local community. If you don’t agree that’s fine, but you’ll be waiting a lifetime for prices to come crashing down. Vancouver is not a boom or bust town, but rather a place of stable climate, unmatched beauty, oceans, mountains, entertainment, clean air, clean water, stable governments, tolerance, and job opportunities for future industries such as tech and energy. The proof is out there… those that come, do not want to leave.

====================================

Keep telling yourself that, as all Vancouverites do ad nauseam. I lived there for ten years, left over ten years ago and would never go back. The place is soulless and depressing.

SCM,

You certainly cherry-pick your Garth quotes. Personally I found his most accurate one was the one that referred to you as an asshole, which incidentally appears to be the majority view. Amazing that your “ban” lasted a whole what, two days?

As someone else pointed out – desperate. One step forward, two steps back. And no, I’m no boomer. Just a regular reader who enjoyed two whole days free from tiresome whining.

#97 on a short leash on 10.13.17 at 7:54 pm

If you repent for saying Boomers enjoy watching people suffer, you can stay. On a short leash. — Garth

——

Kid, you know what’s the only acceptable human reply these days when a white man in cowboy boots wants to keep you on a short leash…

#98 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.13.17 at 7:57 pm

https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2017/10/three-reasons-canadian-mortgage-rates-will-never-hit-5/

#99 SCM on 10.13.17 at 7:57 pm

#92 Dolce Vita on 10.13.17 at 7:41 pm

I read your comment yesterday that you moved from Canada to Italy and you’ve been there 4 years? How do you like it? I’m working on my papers as well (was born in Europe but have lived here pretty much all my life) and am likely (hopefully) moving there next year.

#100 SCM on 10.13.17 at 7:59 pm

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.17 at 7:12 pm

Lol nah like I said I don’t mind. I enjoy the joking around. I thought Garth did too but he came at me pretty hard this week. I’m still surprised. I thought we were getting along. Like I said, I just oppose strongly the notion that somehow I’m the trolly, divisive, hateful one. That’s all. Not saying you are, but there are a few out there…

#101 Keith on 10.13.17 at 8:00 pm

#69 Governments are the worst providers of shelter. Not their job.

The municipality of Whistler has 1900 units of affordable housing, with a tiny population and some of the most expensive land in the world. It can be done.

https://whistlerhousing.ca

#102 jim on 10.13.17 at 8:00 pm

A ‘stress test’ is just prudent underwriting.

Didn’t read the Fraser Institute’s report, but my take would be that we don’t need any stress tests mandated by government agencies.

Instead, we need to end the coddling and moral hazard of Canada’s banking ‘industry’. Let lenders eat their own losses, and they’ll adopt things like ‘stress tests’ to save their skins. Right now banks can lend and lend, in the full knowledge that there are guaranteed bailouts and bonuses waiting in the wings if they mess up.

That’s the libertarian answer to this.

#103 SCM on 10.13.17 at 8:01 pm

#81 Greg on 10.13.17 at 7:12 pm

Lol Greg I don’t ghost-write anything. All my posts are my own and I appreciate the compliments from others.

There are a few others I wonder about though.. not to get too tin foily but ever notice how “Stone” and “Spock” always comment right next to eachother and usually with a spiteful swipe at me. Just sayin.

#104 SCM on 10.13.17 at 8:03 pm

#96 BillyBob on 10.13.17 at 7:51 pm

You certainly cherry-pick your Garth quotes. Personally I found his most accurate one was the one that referred to you as an asshole

———————–

LOL. Technically, that was his most inaccurate quote. Politifact rates it PANTS ON FIRE.

#105 OttawaMike on 10.13.17 at 8:04 pm

Fraser Institute is correct.

Dave Madani is wrong–again.

Ì just bought a Napanee house. High rents-low prices. Great cap rates. Kingston is chugging along well as is Prince Edward County. No stress test coming.

#106 SCM on 10.13.17 at 8:05 pm

#98 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.13.17 at 7:57 pm

Caught your post the other day about your work experience out in BC. I 100% agree with you, it’s wrong and it’s all too common in this country.

I seem to recall having to speak English (or French) as a legal requirement to work in Canada? I remember as a teen filling out job applications, always having to tick that box. Did something change regarding this? Honestly curious.

Kiddo. One post a minute is overkill. Short leash, remember? – Garth

#107 Dolce Vita on 10.13.17 at 8:06 pm

YVR RE Cult alive and kicking I read today.

The only thing you have selling are new Condos at higher prices largely due to Assignment/Flippers. Of course, CRA are after them as they suspect they are not reporting the income.

As for the AirBnB crowd, easy pickings for the CRA as they tend to advertise their rental online for all to see and admire (and get fined for undeclared income). In the last month a multiple rental property Surrey dude got nailed for $130K in fines for not reporting rental income.

YVR resale market is dead, with only a small recent blip, that is all.

A while ago, the Cult was all crowing about how in the last year or two, you could have made gobs of money.

Now they have moved the yardstick to the last 7 years.

And yes, it can crash by 50% to 70%.

In the early 80s, YVR crashed 40% from a peak HPI of 125 to 75, using 1980 $.

A 50% drop is not out of the realm of possibility considering the HPI now is about 300 in 1980 $.

And CRA has caught numerous businesses falsifying Cdn. residency to circumvent foreign buyers tax (fines and jail time), rates will go up again, B20 will reduce mortgage amounts and the number of qualified buyers…

Yup, that is excellent YVR RE Cult news I’d say. Prices will go up for certain. The good days are over.

And BTW, I live in Italy, a hop and skip North of Venice. All Vancouver has is concrete/steel/glass towers, a bay that you can’t swim in and mountains…wow. I’m so impressed. If you are a fern that loves to be constantly misted for months on end, this is the haven for you.

Even the kid from Riverdale thinks its boring.

#108 SCM on 10.13.17 at 8:07 pm

I’ll try to respond to a few more from mobile. I have to get to the store before it closes. Thanks for letting me back Garth. I’m trying to be as careful with my words as possible.

#109 the Jaguar on 10.13.17 at 8:08 pm

” After endless months of marketing and showings, J was able to find a buyer for a $2.5 million estate on 15 acres of prime, rolling countryside. ”

Sounds like Caledon …is that the correct spelling? Long time since I lived in the GTA.
I have to wonder….if the realtor was indeed experienced and the property wasn’t moving for months and months, with daily evidence that the GTA marketplace was undergoing a significant reality check, why did the seller and realtor not revisit recent comparable sales and drop the price accordingly, closing the massive gap in sale price versus appraised value? The appraiser looks for recent comparable sales. No fault there. Seller probably did not want to drop the price or wasn’t encouraged by his sales professional to do it. Manage your clients expectations. The Banks have every right to be cautious in the current environment as they are looking after their shareholders–meaning all you blog dogs.

Regarding the person who has miraculously been resurrected on this blog, appears he still doesn’t get it. The ‘at your feet or at your throat’ comments are already evident. Only a matter of time till Garth pulls the plug again. Those who profess a certain interest or compassion must surely have one or two similar ones living in their musty basements.

#110 OttawaMike on 10.13.17 at 8:08 pm

SCM is the lefty counter to Smoking man.

Good to see a truce here.

#111 SCM on 10.13.17 at 8:09 pm

Kiddo. One post a minute is overkill. Short leash, remember? – Garth

———

Sorry dad. I’ll stop now. Was just trying to reply to a few people before heading out.

#112 OttawaMike on 10.13.17 at 8:16 pm

Kiddo. One post a minute is overkill. Short leash, remember? – Garth
—————-
Ha.

#113 BlogDog123 on 10.13.17 at 8:25 pm

Welcome back SCM!
I imagine you look like something like this kid:
http://imgs.zinio.com/magimages/106683330/2010/416146936_370.jpg

I am in my 40’s:
Remember back in the good ol’ days when our parents “underfunded” their EI premiums {PM fixed that in the 90’s}, had an expanding economy with less evil Catbert HR departments {outsourcing, contract flipping now the norm} got to retire with buy-out packages and company pensions and then get those seniors goodies like the “age amount” credit, full OAS…, all the while electing governments who rack up big debts…

#114 rainclouds on 10.13.17 at 8:25 pm

#33 Vanman ” All you need to do is look at the volume of listings on AirBnb in Vancouver. 10 years ago this wasn’t an issue.”

True dat. And yes it has exploded as an underground business.

HOWEVER :

Exhibit A: If you think the hotel’s who pay huge taxes aren’t pounding on the door of the politicians.you better rethink.

Exhibit B: Notice posted in the elevator of my Vancouver condo building 3 weeks ago. “Tenants Report short term rentals to the building strata. The strata is then LEGALLY obligated to report the the city bylaw office”

Exhibit C: CRA now combing through AIRBNB website, presumably also with the city’s assistance and data.

Exhibit D: Province looking at legislation for all of BC regarding short term rentals.

Exhibit E: San Francisco the home of AIRBNB is making them responsible for ensuring entire homes aren’t rented, with huge fines.

Politicians at every level are being beaten up daily on this issue. The battleship takes a long time to turn around but when it does……

Now that the most inept and corrupt BC government in living memory has been shown the door it should help.

expect AIRBNB scammers to be reigned in. Won’t happen over night but it will happen. Gonna be some very unhappy shysters with some heat on them and YUUUGE backdated bills and fines.With appropriate publicity.

No it won’t last…..

#115 waiting on the westcoast on 10.13.17 at 8:26 pm

Heeeeeesssss Baaaaacccckkkkk!

SCM – please make the posts stop. I still am unsure if you are male or female but you definitely have the neediness of a millennial… ;-)

#116 Mlb time on 10.13.17 at 8:27 pm

It’s not too late to implement a three strike rule.

#117 Seriously? on 10.13.17 at 8:30 pm

DELETED

#118 Dolce Vita on 10.13.17 at 8:33 pm

#99 SCM

I love it.

I mean it’s Italy. 400,000,000 foreign visits here this year in a land mass 1/3 the size of BC can’t all be wrong, up 16% to 25% vs. last year, depending upon the region.

It is much cheaper to live here than in Canada, hands down.

The produce has no GMO, Growth Hormones or steroid induced juice pig meats. Everyone thinks it’s our cuisine, true, but the half of it is the produce and meat here, amazing to say the least. And our dairy makes most of what you buy in Canada seem watered down.

If you love culture and history, well we have 60% of what UNESCO thinks is the most significant art, sculpture etc. in the World…ya, Italy = 60, World = 40. We have more World Heritage sites than anyone else in the World. We stopped applying for them 10 years ago to let everyone else catch up, they still haven’t.

As for scenery, I could show you vistas that rival anything in the World, anything, save jungles.

If you love clean beaches to swim in, unlike English Bay or Lake Ontario, well we have 7500 km of coastline and over 340 Blue Flag beaches, Canada has 26.

What ever you like, you will find it in Italia, again, save jungles.

If you are serious, I can meet up with you if you want. Email Garth a request and he can forward it on to me. He’s really good about that. And if you suck up to me here or do the Boomer thing, I will bitch slap you in ways you have yet to experience…could not resist.

I live in the Province of Pordenone. We gave you:

Tiramisu
Prosecco
Radicchio & Arugula
Polenta

And other cool stuff I will not tell you about; otherwise, it will get harder to find here as they will sell it to the don’t no shit from clay crowd, but we have a lot of cash, in the USA and Canada.

#119 DON on 10.13.17 at 8:35 pm

Phil Soper. “For the first time since 2011, we are seeing real estate in all five of our largest cities appreciate at a manageable, healthy clip******************

Banks get your monthly payments adding to their revenue. Short-term bank profits for lending you other people’s money.

If you can afford to keep making the payments…no problem Bank takes your house.

Banks make money lending you other people’s money and some made out of thin air.

Win-Win-Win for the bank.

#120 Happy Millennial on 10.13.17 at 8:37 pm

As a happy renting millennial 1%er, (aka not screwed) with all due respect Garth although you personally may not enjoy watching people suffer, a large number of the boomer cohort seem to. Maybe because the younger crowd does not worship Milton Friedman. A little help goes a long way if done properly.

#121 Canada=Poor cousin of U.S on 10.13.17 at 8:39 pm

I am simply blown away by the FACTS that in a country where the sales taxes are twice than U.S, incomes are almost half of U.S (check out the white collar job salaries and factor in the exchange rate) , cost of goods almost double of U.S (just go to amazon and get an idea), Mortgages are not deductible and the loonie people are willing to buy pathetic shoebox style houses for 1 Mil +. Just mind blowing!! People down south won’t even have a second look at what ya’ll kill each other to buy. UNBELIEVABLE!!!

#122 Smoking Man on 10.13.17 at 8:42 pm

SCM is 100% a chick. It’s in the wordology.

Sweat heart. Did you skip class when your lefty teachers were talking about Cultural Appropriation.

Shame on you.

#123 Blacksheep on 10.13.17 at 8:43 pm

Screwed # 38,

“because I dare point out that there’s no labour shortage in this country, there’s no real wage growth, and that many many Canadians are hurting and being left behind. I hope this comment sticks.”
———————————————
OK….so you pointed it out.

But can you tell us WHY Canadians (many in the west) are hurting?

#124 Not A Mill, Nor Boomer on 10.13.17 at 8:43 pm

Daily reader of both the blog and the comments. SCM is not the trolly one. The usual suspects who get nasty with SCM have formed the same group think mentality that most packs of jackals do. Garth, it’s your blog . . . Put SCM on a short leash if that’s what it takes to be alpha. Just make sure the jackals have all gotten their rabies shots. Pretty sure it’s too little, too late for a few of them.

#125 Linda on 10.13.17 at 8:44 pm

The Fraser Institute. Lordy, the housing industry must be so pumped they came out with a report that effectively supports no housing intervention measures for Toronto or Vancouver – does that make them a white knight or what?

‘shooting the wounded’ – LOL. I take note that banks are not included in that category – or at least they are trying at this late date to minimize the bleeding that may well come once to pass.

#126 For those about to flop... on 10.13.17 at 8:49 pm

For the record I believe the boss of this blog has made a big mistake.

Actually he has been suckered into making the same mistake three times.

Anyway,I made a promise to him that I would try and support and try help him out but this weeks happenings has me wondering whether it is worth giving up 5 hours of my weekends to volunteer to try and show people what is really happening with Vancouver real estate
when I can no longer get any realtors to respond to me because of the shyster guy scared them all away and a couple of trolls seem content to drag this beast of a blog back home with them under the bridge where they live.

If anyone on here is still interested in real estate or saving for retirement they might be interested in the latest article from howmuch…

M43BC

“Can you Retire on 1 Million? Here is How Long You Can Survive in Every State…
Emerging data reveals the disparity in the Cost of Living Indexes (2017 Q2) among different US States and its potential impact on savings. Without a proper savings-plan particularly in the States of Iowa and Nebraska, it could be difficult, if not impossible, to reap the benefits of decades of hard work. In Hawaii $1 million savings can only last about 13 years due to a high Cost of Living Index (166.4), yet, a similar savings of senior citizens in Mississippi and Arkansas can last almost twice as much due to relatively low Cost of Living Index that stands at 85.5 and 87.4 respectively. The infographic below illustrates a comparative analysis of how $1 million savings could last in different States on an average annual expenditure of persons with 65 years and above.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/one-million-retirement-by-state

#127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.17 at 8:55 pm

@#80 race police
“Since when is decency reserved to race?”

Decency?

Errrr, Happy Housing Crash was referring to Realtors right?

Have you used a Realtor lately?

#128 Dolce Vita on 10.13.17 at 8:55 pm

PS: #99 SCM

Per the WHO, Italian healthcare system ranks #2 in the World, France #1.

Piss proud Canada that loves to lord it over the Americans ranks #30, America #36.

Got in a traffic accident in Puglia, near Gallipoli last year (got rear ended at high speed on the Auto Strada). This is all within 1.5 hrs upon arriving at the hospital there (not considered as good as in the North and the ambulance ride was like Formula 1 racing):

Blood sample and results
X-Ray
CatScan
Head Orthopedic surgeon talk to review results (small fracture in lumbar which they suspected was pre-existing)
In a hospital bed in the orthopedic wing, and the food was great…hey, it’s Italy.
Measured up for a back brace to be ready for when I was to leave, a few days later and with plenty of free meds.

Beat that in Canada, good luck.

#129 fishman on 10.13.17 at 8:58 pm

Critical civic by-election in Van town tomorrow. Results could affect ROC for years to come. The guy to watch is Pete Fry. Yes that Fry, Hedy’s son. Yes that Hedy , who beat a sitting PM. Formidable ground game & I know cause she’s my MP & I’ve fought & lost 8 times in a row.We got close to finishing her off in Oct. 95 but she was saved by the bell.
Maybe cause Pete was born in Ireland he’s got the gift of the gab, whatever, at the all candidates meeting he was the sharpest knife in the drawer.

Why this could affect ROC? He’s running under the Green banner. You think Hedy’s got her formidable machine helping her kid? You think Hedy’s gonna let her boy play on a losing team? Greenies are coming in strong out here for a whole bunch of reasons & are gonna bleed all three parties. If Fry gets in they got their Van base. They control the provincial house now. The greenies are rolling on economic nationalism & greenie stuff,staying away so far from identity politics. OK I’m gonna go for a shot at SM’s early political prognosis. Not that I’ll take the title after his Trump call. Greenies take 20 seats federally & it could be a populist revolt like Reform in 93 &97 & you guys back east could be looking at a 35-40 seat Greenie B.C. rump next parliament.

#130 Danny on 10.13.17 at 9:03 pm

Re 108…SCM
As a boomer and one fairly new at making comments…I feel for you….when you try to not use words that other people feel offended by or feel attacked.
We are experiencing one of the worst period in my life with Trump’s daily onslaught….never let’s up and has been setting a new very unkind way of speaking about others….publicly attacking football player’s…mother with the Son of B….words…..and much more to satisfy his tribe .

We have gone from a more gentle, kinder sensitive orator like President Obama…to a silly vindictive name calling Trump….and yes he is a Boomer.

I know many times I have to hold myself back and think along a more gentle way and try to respect how others feel…so I try hard to stay away from personal attacks…and wish merely to voice my opinion….but today’s environment does not help to debate without angry attacks.
Stick with us SCM.

#131 Smoking Man on 10.13.17 at 9:05 pm

SCM what gave your gender away. It was a little thing.
What Dude calls himself a male.

We don’t do that.

Grasshopper send some biki pics, If I like em, I’ll coach you, me being the biggest bull shitter in the world. Might even get you a Hollywood gig. By now I’m sure you know what is required.

Just don’t start drinking, is a microscopic down incline that you don’t see coming till you end up on some balcony saying. There are two ways out of this dilemma.

The easy way or the hard way. Good thing Wyett needs me. Because no one else does.

FYI shit faced early tonight.

I love dogs.

#132 LOVE on 10.13.17 at 9:07 pm

This is why I’m addicted!!!!!!!!

#133 Russ on 10.13.17 at 9:14 pm

SCM on 10.13.17 at 7:57 pm

#92 Dolce Vita on 10.13.17 at 7:41 pm

I read your comment yesterday that you moved from Canada to Italy and you’ve been there 4 years? How do you like it? I’m working on my papers as well (was born in Europe but have lived here pretty much all my life) and am likely (hopefully) moving there next year.
====================

I’m interested in your research.

What country is your fave? Is it part of your heritage?
Which one is your second choice?

I ask because the wife can qualify for a British passport and I nag it should be done before the exit so we have a chance at Euro..?

I think it is a good strategy for us to sell out (Vancouver Island) and rent at different parts o’ the world for a few years, just for fun.

#134 Pete from St. Cesaire on 10.13.17 at 9:29 pm

I’ve heard that speculators from Toronto are buying up properties in Montreal and driving up the price on the locals. Why can’t Quebec preemptively pass an out-of-province-buyer surtax to quash this before it gets out of hand. There certainly seems to be a real push on to cause a housing bubble in Montreal; the newspapers are constantly talking about rising house prices and the housing construction boom. Let’s keep the housing market collapse misery out of Quebec shall we.

#135 Smoking Man on 10.13.17 at 9:33 pm

DELETED

#136 Stone on 10.13.17 at 9:37 pm

#111 SCM on 10.13.17 at 8:09 pm
Kiddo. One post a minute is overkill. Short leash, remember? – Garth

———

Sorry dad. I’ll stop now. Was just trying to reply to a few people before heading out.

——

Oh my god! Please make it stop. Unbelievable. So needy and so desperate. Sorry dad? Really? All I can say is wow as I cannot understand the lack of respect. Garth let you back in and that’s how you respond?

Lets hope this doesn’t last long.

Sorry Garth, I had to say it. If you need to delete my post, I understand. This guy just rubs me the wrong way.

#137 Smoking Man on 10.13.17 at 9:47 pm

#135 Smoking Man on 10.13.17 at 9:33 pm
DELETED

Live to fight another day. That was suicide mission for sure.

They are bad garth.

#138 conan on 10.13.17 at 9:50 pm

#200 Calgary Rip Off on 10.13.17 at 10:18 am

“What if you are incorrect in your assumptions about God?”

I believe in evolution and science, but I also think that there is an intelligent design component.

Am I good to go?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3SVGXK_4ba8

I do believe in God, but religion is primitive on the blue marble. Our concept of God is probably one parsec short of reality. There are hundreds of practicing religions, some of them will use violence to achieve political aims

#139 dr. talc on 10.13.17 at 9:55 pm

has jeremy rudin demonstrated, or offered any proof of his outlandish claim that there is ‘risk’ in collateral loans when the lender is allowed to ‘create’ money by issuing a loan?
no
why not?
its impossible
thats why jeremy introduces the ultimate con man’s misdirection: a straw man-logical fallacy called:
‘the credit worthiness of the borrower ‘
why?

it still works

#140 mike from mtl on 10.13.17 at 9:59 pm

#134 Pete from St. Cesaire on 10.13.17 at 9:29 pm Let’s keep the housing market collapse misery out of Quebec shall we.//////////////////////////////////////////////////

Probably we should vote back the PQ in power to push back the RoC garbage as usual, seriously. Every time a Lib gets in a housing run up starts, then PQ adds that certain element of unknown that puts into question long term ‘investments’.

I’m dead serious, housing runups benefits no one, RoC has yet to discover.

#141 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.13.17 at 10:05 pm

#118 Dolce Vita on 10.13.17 at 8:33 pm
#99 SCM

I love it.

I mean it’s Italy. 400,000,000 foreign visits here this year in a land mass 1/3 the size of BC can’t all be wrong, up 16% to 25% vs. last year, depending upon the region.

It is much cheaper to live here than in Canada, hands down.

The produce has no GMO, Growth Hormones or steroid induced juice pig meats. Everyone thinks it’s our cuisine, true, but the half of it is the produce and meat here, amazing to say the least. And our dairy makes most of what you buy in Canada seem watered down.

If you love culture and history, well we have 60% of what UNESCO thinks is the most significant art, sculpture etc. in the World…ya, Italy = 60, World = 40. We have more World Heritage sites than anyone else in the World. We stopped applying for them 10 years ago to let everyone else catch up, they still haven’t.

As for scenery, I could show you vistas that rival anything in the World, anything, save jungles.

If you love clean beaches to swim in, unlike English Bay or Lake Ontario, well we have 7500 km of coastline and over 340 Blue Flag beaches, Canada has 26.

What ever you like, you will find it in Italia, again, save jungles.

If you are serious, I can meet up with you if you want. Email Garth a request and he can forward it on to me. He’s really good about that. And if you suck up to me here or do the Boomer thing, I will bitch slap you in ways you have yet to experience…could not resist.

I live in the Province of Pordenone. We gave you:

Tiramisu
Prosecco
Radicchio & Arugula
Polenta
———-
Stop it.
You are making me so homesick.
Can’t leave Canada because of family commitments.

#142 Smoking Man on 10.13.17 at 10:10 pm

Confessions
https://youtu.be/vt1Pwfnh5pc

#143 TnT on 10.13.17 at 10:15 pm

#131 Smoking Man on 10.13.17 at 9:05 pm

Weak Sauce

Smoking Scrub wants a ride on SCM coat tails.

The Student just became the Master!

Lawlz….

PS. Welcome back SCM

#144 KLNR on 10.13.17 at 10:19 pm

#38 SCM explaining myself on 10.13.17 at 5:37 pm

glad your back. always enjoyed most of your posts – really cut through the group think that goes on here sometimes.

#145 palebird on 10.13.17 at 10:20 pm

#33 ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, etc

#118 yes Italy is fantastic

#146 Spock on 10.13.17 at 10:21 pm

#103 SCM on 10.13.17 at 8:01 pm
#81 Greg on 10.13.17 at 7:12 pm

Do not know stone and what he has said to you but it is hard to spend time commenting as one person – let alone two. I am heading on vacation in Nov and Dec to Asia so maybe Stone will take it up for me :-) .. I wonder if Garth has the capability of seeing if same person has different aliases. Maybe he does. Either way fortunately or unfortunately, I am not STONE(d) but STONE will Live Long and Prosper.

And do not confuse sarcasm with spite.

Nothing against you personally but you claim you back up everything with facts and I am calling you out (have not had a reply yet).

Nothing spiteful either – life is too short for that. I wish and hope you do well in life. But the way you went about your task will hurt you more than it will help you.

With regards to the wages thing that you typed up that boomers seem to be against increase, I have no clue what boomer are thinking but I know what business owners are thinking about.

You need to read up on business though – the people who work as employees will and should get what the market is willing to bear. That is how supply and demand works. If Government wants to interfere then why stop at $15 – make it $40 per hour.

Business owners who pick up risk want to be rewarded accordingly for the risk they pick up and the sweat equity. Employees will not get the same pay because they do not participate in the risk of the business (other than going on EI if there is a layoff).

Not too hard to understand. So no one grudges that minimum wage should be X or Y – but if that is the margin between a business owner making a profit or loss then the market will not bear it and the very people who are supposed to be helped by this increase will suffer. We have been through the various studies on both sides of the coin but time will tell and that will be the best indicator of what really happens when you increase minimum wages by 40% in short period of time along with screwing the business owners on their taxes.

I have full sympathy for those who make minimum wage and find it hard to imagine how someone on minimum wage can support a family but then again – in a society not everyone will get the same wage. If we do then it is known by a different name.

————————————————-

#103 SCM on 10.13.17 at 8:01 pm
#81 Greg on 10.13.17 at 7:12 pm

There are a few others I wonder about though.. not to get too tin foily but ever notice how “Stone” and “Spock” always comment right next to eachother and usually with a spiteful swipe at me. Just sayin.

#147 Spock on 10.13.17 at 10:25 pm

#130 Danny on 10.13.17 at 9:03 pm

You are doing a fantastic job at the comments Danny.

With regards to Obama and Trump – one screwed the people from the bank and the other from the front. All the politicians are unfortunately the same.

No different than our T2 / Morneau and Butts. :-(

Wish someone comes in power (at least in Canada) who respects tax payers money and cuts the fat and makes government folks accountable. Oh well, can always dream.

—————————————————–
#130 Danny on 10.13.17 at 9:03 pm
Re 108…SCM
As a boomer and one fairly new at making comments…

We have gone from a more gentle, kinder sensitive orator like President Obama…to a silly vindictive name calling Trump….and yes he is a Boomer.

#148 Smoking Man on 10.13.17 at 10:31 pm

#143 TnT on 10.13.17 at 10:15 pm
#131 Smoking Man on 10.13.17 at 9:05 pm

Weak Sauce

Smoking Scrub wants a ride on SCM coat tails.

The Student just became the Master!

Lawlz….

PS. Welcome back SCM

The torch is heavy. I’m getting old. It’s yours SCM

#149 SCM on 10.13.17 at 10:51 pm

Hang in there Smokey. Think of your puppies. Your poor liver… I don’t drink. Alcohol causes too many problems. I’ve seen it ruin many lives.

#150 SCM on 10.13.17 at 10:52 pm

#136 Stone on 10.13.17 at 9:37 pm

Oh my god! Please make it stop. Unbelievable. So needy and so desperate. Sorry dad? Really? All I can say is wow as I cannot understand the lack of respect. Garth let you back in and that’s how you respond?

Lets hope this doesn’t last long.

Sorry Garth, I had to say it. If you need to delete my post, I understand. This guy just rubs me the wrong way.

————————

Stone, with comments like these, I believe it’s getting more and more obvious to others that it is you who has the problem(s). Not I.

#151 DON on 10.13.17 at 10:53 pm

#8 Penny Henny on 10.13.17 at 3:12 pm

Wow! Garth does a whole post on playing nice. Leaves the post up for two days. And then the first post is this crap-

#2 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.13.17 at 2:50 pm
Royal SHYSTER You are true scum of the earth SHYSTERS

Like I said, wow!

Are realtors a race? — Garth
****************************
Not on this planet!

#152 DON on 10.13.17 at 10:58 pm

(screwed this post up earlier)

#3 SoggyShorts on 10.13.17 at 2:56 pm

Honestly I don’t understand why anyone is against a stress test. I’ve never applied for a mortgage, but I always assumed it was already a thing.
If rates are something that changes all the time, how can you lend someone money if they can just barely afford the payments today?
Would you lend someone money if the payments were going to be exactly 100% of what they can afford right now?

********************
Banks get your monthly payments adding to their revenue. Short-term bank profits for lending you other people’s money.

If you can afford to keep making the payments…no problem Bank takes your house.

Banks make money lending you other people’s money and some made out of thin air.

Win-Win-Win for the bank.

#153 DON on 10.13.17 at 11:04 pm

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.17 at 3:19 pm

Geez. Happy Housing Crash is on a one two roll!

But I have to agree.
CREA, TREB, BCREA, VREA and all the other alphabet soup collection of real estate shills, pumpers and glorified snake oil salesmen on a commission based salary …… best get ready for this.
No matter what drivel you try and spin …..there’s no hiding it.
The party’s over.
*************
I guess they have to be positive…nothing else for them to do at the moment. Well I guess they could all hit the casinos and launder some money.

#154 Perspective on 10.13.17 at 11:08 pm

God Crazy Stuff

1) The earth is 5000 years old

2) Everthing on the planet evolved from goo and lightning 4.5 billion years ago

3) The Vancouver real estate biubble. God or goo will save us.

#155 45north on 10.13.17 at 11:10 pm

Dominoes: I wonder how SEARS closing down and liquidating at bargain basement prices in the prime of the Christmas selling season is going to affect other retailers.

We went to Sears (St Laurent, Ottawa) tonight. It’s sad it’s closing. Within Sears there are little boutique stores: Sears Optical, Sears Watch Repair. It would’ve had to cut back on its leases but I can imagine management saying “that’s our flag ship store”. I would say that its closing is going to dampen sales at other retailers.

#156 DON on 10.13.17 at 11:16 pm

#16 Penny Henny on 10.13.17 at 3:58 pm

#8 Penny Henny on 10.13.17 at 3:12 pm
Wow! Garth does a whole post on playing nice. Leaves the post up for two days. And then the first post is this crap-

#2 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.13.17 at 2:50 pm
Royal SHYSTER You are true scum of the earth SHYSTERS

Like I said, wow!

Are realtors a race? — Garth

/////////////////////

Of course not.
But neither are Boomers or Millenials or Ex Politicians.

So defining a whole group of people as horrible, ugly and scum of the earth is acceptable again.

“The only message I have is respect. Disagree all you want, but don’t attack.”-Garth
********************

Before you read the rest Penny Henny I do understand your point and had a similar thought when I saw Happy’s post – then I laughed.

Because Boomers, Millens or some ex-Politicians are not misleading the public like some (most) realtors are.

#157 Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 10.13.17 at 11:20 pm

I was going to ride into Port Dover today, but with my “82 Wing”, all chromed up and looking good, it would have been embarrassing having all the Harley owners fawning and drooling all over my bike.

#158 Bat Guano on 10.13.17 at 11:27 pm

Every month, for the last 9 or so years, this site has been informing us that real estate is currently crashing. Yet in this period prices have doubled and doubled again – and depending on the area have doubled once more. I’ll believe in the crash when I see blood in the streets, like I witnessed in Vancouver in 1981.

I remember streets with rows of “for sale” signs. There were no “sold” stickers and asking prices were clearly and undeniably free-falling throughout the year on all levels of real-estate. What was a $160K place in 1980 was $80K or less a year later.

Now THAT’S a crash. The present-day anecdotal stories of a softening markets or specific homes that have fallen in price is not a crash.

I do believe a big correction is coming some day. But let’s hold back on crying wolf again and again.

YVR is not the world. Get out of town more often. And where did I say ‘crash’? With people so leveraged heavy blows can come in a velvet glove. — Garth

#159 Greg on 10.13.17 at 11:35 pm

#146 Spock on 10.13.17 at 10:21 pm

“but if that is the margin between a business owner making a profit or loss then the market will not bear it and the very people who are supposed to be helped by this increase will suffer”

—–

Ah heck. I really wanted to bow out from the comment section. I have 3 kids under 4 that I love more than this blog.

But this one has been a curiosity of mine ever since the Temporary Foreign Worker program came under scrutiny.

I agree with your premise in the short term Spock. Increasing the minimum wage will impact some/many/most businesses in the short term. Some may even go under. And the greater the incremental delta of the min wage over a shorter period of time the greater the likelihood that disruption could drag on. For that reason I would have liked the increase to $15 to be more gradual.

But assuming the demand for the widget a particular sector sells does not decrease I don’t see how employment in that sector drops. Whatever businesses cannot survive by either becoming leaner or passing on the additional costs to consumers and must therefore layoff/shutter are offset by those that can which will see increased sales and employment.

Net societal benefits over time are realized in aggregate by a) having leaner businesses capable of producing widgets more efficiently and b) having a higher paid min wage workforce who will immediately pump all that new money into the economy (i.e. unlike tax breaks to the wealthy resulting in “trickle down” benefits, paying min workers more is more efficient – they are far more likely to spend the entire windfall = “flood up” benefits)

I just don’t see the argument that increasing the min wage, when done properly, is anti-business, small or otherwise.

Start one and find out. The bulk of employment is in the service sector, not manufacturing. Labour is a huge cost component. – Garth

#160 S.Bby on 10.13.17 at 11:45 pm

#33 vanman
If you think Vancouver is stable then you don’t know much history. Vancouver has always been a boom and bust kind of place.

#161 Adios on 10.13.17 at 11:46 pm

If the Canadian public had any balls they would have stopped shopping at Sears after seeing the way employees were being treated.But hang a sale sign and convince the stupid it’s a makeover makes it even worse.This is just a sample of how management thinking has become and apparently encouraged and rewarded.A curly hair in your soup causes more reaction than a corporate giant going bust.

#162 Balmuto on 10.13.17 at 11:56 pm

No disrespect to SCM, but I’m not sure he’s earned his “stripes” yet. Whining against Boomers is not particularly original or interesting. Smoking Man is a deranged alcoholic poet and not to be taken at face value but definitely has a certain genius. Mark is annoying for his persistence in espousing fundamentally wrong views but has a certain knack for drawing others into the argument he wants to engage in. SCM just seems to annoy a certain demographic. Not particularly impressive.

#163 ld Ron the Realtor on 10.14.17 at 12:02 am

Sorry for this guy. But a house sold every 7 minutes in the GTA in September. (24 x 7) Not exactly tumbleweed blowing down Bay Street is it ? 6,378 Sales in 30 days.

The trouble is the massive over supply of real estate agents, not the lack of buyers. You need about 12,000 sales a month to support 48,000 agents and that is not going to happen anytime soon.

#164 Dmitry on 10.14.17 at 12:03 am

#38 SCM explaining myself

Hey screwy, is that you – https://imgur.com/a/uJE1i

No, wait, there’s two Ns and it’s BMW, so no way it can be you :-)

Welcome back :-)

Took this pic couple weeks ago in Vaughan (Major Mac and Dufferin).

#165 SCM on 10.14.17 at 12:05 am

#161 Adios on 10.13.17 at 11:46 pm
If the Canadian public had any balls they would have stopped shopping at Sears after seeing the way employees were being treated.

————————–

Geez if we did that, then hardly any Canadian businesses would get any business.

Full list of canadian companies authorized to use temporary foreign workers
https://www.policyalternatives.ca/newsroom/updates/full-list-canadian-companies-authorized-use-temporary-foreign-workers

I refuse to buy anything at Tim Hortons, for one. Haven’t bought anything there in years. Is it too much to ask that companies that want the privilege of doing business in Canada, to hire Canadians? I don’t think so. Good enough to sell to, should be good enough to hire as well. Too expensive I guess. Not to mention all those pesky labour laws that get in the way or exploitation and borderline slavery. Canadians can’t be threatened with deportation. I’m supposedly a foreigner-hater, I actually care about these people and don’t want them brought here and exploited.

And this ridiculous argument that somehow Canadians don’t want to work at Tim Hortons, McDonalds, etc. Canadians are right now working at Tim Hortons, McDonalds, etc. Who the hell do people think built the company that Tim Horton founded in 1964? It was Canadians. Hard working Canadians earning an honest wage. Can’t find a Canadian to work for $11/hour? Offer a higher wage. Don’t like it? Tough luck buttercup, that’s called capitalism. Go to North Korea.

Gooooooood night.

#166 Ryan on 10.14.17 at 12:10 am

Are people still lining up to get flu shots? I really hope not.

#167 Greg on 10.14.17 at 12:11 am

#159 Greg on 10.13.17 at 11:35 pm

Start one and find out. The bulk of employment is in the service sector, not manufacturing. Labour is a huge cost component. – Garth

—–

Making assumptions now Garth.

And you should look at IT if you think the service sector has a large labour operating cost component. Do you know how much s/w programmers demand these days Garth (millenial or otherwise)? Trust me. It hurts.

The share of labor in the operating costs does not impact the argument. So long as demand remains stable and can absorb the min wage increase (which is why you don’t increase the min wage from $15 to $40 – it would kill demand) sector employment should remain stable.

#168 PastThePeak on 10.14.17 at 12:49 am

I give SCM a few days at most. A person like that can’t control their emotions for long.

#169 Oft deleted much maligned stock picker on 10.14.17 at 1:11 am

Why smear The Fraser Insitute with ‘right wing’? These are accountants…not politicians…..they’re certainty not deserving of a back handed association to Nazi’s. Is the Canadian Taxpayers Federation also …’right wing’? There are rational people in this country who just tell the unvarnished truth….what’s wrong with that. Sure…the teachers union hates the Fraser Institute for rating the schools by the numbers…..but as a parent and research author of a popular book on graduation statistics I can verify that the Fraser Insitute is the least of the teachers unions problems when it comes to the uneven application and success rates of K-12 education. Free speech is not only an agreement to parrot the party line of extremist liberal causes.

#170 Greg on 10.14.17 at 1:14 am

#159 Greg on 10.13.17 at 11:35 pm

Start one and find out. The bulk of employment is in the service sector, not manufacturing. Labour is a huge cost component. – Garth

————-

Those dots don’t connect for me. For example IT/Software manufacturing has huge labor costs and that sector seems to be doing fine with some of the fastest growing wages over the past 20 years.

Yes it will be disruptive to the service sectors dependent on min. wage labor in the short term, but over the long term, assuming demand is not impacted (which is why the min. wage should not be increased from $15 to $40 – it would kill demand) sector employment levels should remain stable no?

What am I missing?

#171 Greg on 10.14.17 at 1:15 am

Ah crap. I thought my first post got lost. Sorry for the resend. Garth delete the second post, or the first one, or not. I apologize to all for the regurgitation.

#172 Another millennial on 10.14.17 at 1:27 am

Hey SCM, just wanted to say I’ve been reading your posts and I enjoy the other perspective.

#173 westcdn on 10.14.17 at 1:33 am

Asset inflation does bother me. I need dividends to keep my modest lifestyle. So I look for companies with good solid cash flow and low debt. The problem is many of them have small trading volumes and are vulnerable to a liquidly crisis but I will buy on a dip if their fundamentals remain intact.

Real estate and Bitcoin prices are similar in their value depend on perception. Both seem to be driven by speculation and since I missed the train leaving the station, I will not buy them because I see too much downside risk – I was never a good lying gambler. Living on commissions leaves me cold when I have to misrepresent. I get no satisfaction from “winning” and think the best business deal is where neither party is happy.

I own shares in both aar.un and tfii. They recently consummated a lease buyback agreement. I find this interesting given the possibility of automated trucks and online shopping. https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6717943616990384&qm_symbol=TFII

I am looking at keeping my capital safe. It has always been more important than dividends.

#174 the2ndcomingofjohngalt on 10.14.17 at 1:33 am

Wow! SCM has sure garnered a lot of attention from regular posters since he was given a pardon by Garth. I just have one question for him/her, what tenet of capitalism presumed,or suggested a social contract? As a member of the tail end of the boomer generation I have a lot of empathy for some of your arguments in your posts, and have long argued/discussed among my peers the steady slow decline in the standard of living of working class Canadians. That being said you had better learn to adapt ,and evolve quickly. The age of cradle to grave social security has long passed, I was lucky enough to catch the very tail end of it in the early eighties, enough to establish myself in a trade (Plumbing/heating/gas),that is difficult to water down with automation, or outsource offshore(although I see inroads of temporary foreign workers) starting to have an effect on wages in the industry in general. Neo-liberal capitalism has triumphed in spades, we quite willingly drank the kool-aid without a second thought, now we reap the benefits.Don’t look to governments to solve your plight, they have very little room to manoeuvre,having given away their influence long ago, for a fraction of a penny on the the dollar. Anyways,I’m happy that Garth gave you a measure of forgiveness,welcome back.

#175 Guillaume on 10.14.17 at 1:41 am

#38 SCM explaining myself

Life will tame you, you may even end up voting conservative. If you really want to help, why don’t you start now a small business ? you will be more busy, tired and won’t be able to over post on this blog… and we will see what you think about raising the minimum wage
M46BC

#176 DON on 10.14.17 at 1:46 am

Well….that was pain full. Read all the comments. That was painful.

In short the real estate bulls are losing it – denial stage. How can one argue that prices go up forever when they have been going down. Sales are down. Only condos up in Van. We all know deep down what is coming…no good news.

The financial geniuses at work are no longer chatting about real estate. Egos on the decline – even the ‘cat up the tree news readers’ can’t keep the bubble going. Cracks are appearing everywhere – most won’t see it coming. Oh well…off to my local casino to watch my newly hired real estate agent launder my down payment for my 4th Vancouver special.

SCM- go back and retrieve your post on the boomers – you were offside because you generalized – you assumed a whole generation was exactly the same with no real evidence. Mostly, your gen are the ones buying the over priced boomer houses. They were not forced to buy. Why did they?

I like your spunky attitude – keeps people thinking but your delivery is too much ‘in your face attitude’ Chill and get your point across!

#177 waiting on the westcoast on 10.14.17 at 4:18 am

#133 Russ on 10.13.17 at 9:14 pm says… “I think it is a good strategy for us to sell out (Vancouver Island) and rent at different parts of the world for a few years, just for fun.”

I’m Italian and Canadian and have just lived a year in Uruguay. I would like to do a year in Italy but I think the taxes might be too high for a long term commitment. Uruguay is great because it is easy and cheap to get residency and they offer no tax on foreign income for the first 5 years. Thereafter it’s 25% which is the same as their personal rate and the corporate rate for a SPA Uruguayan corporation).

With respect to Italy, my family is from Veneto so a little SW of where Dolce Vita is living. I have driven through that area via Congliogne to Cortina, etc. It Is beautiful and a great lifestyle. However, the feel is very small town and everyone knows and CARES about everyone’s business…

#178 under the radar on 10.14.17 at 6:25 am

One client of mine is preparing to take out a mortgage of about 2 million on his home. Funds are being used to consolidate debt.
Value is about 4.5 million. he has no other assets . His income is entirely commission, a realtor. He cannot save any money . He is approaching 60. No financial plan except eventually downsize and bank proceeds of sale. I feel bad for him as he has squandered a small fortune and he knows it. Not sure once he sells if he has the discipline to live within a budget.

#179 maxx on 10.14.17 at 7:34 am

“….a Goldilocks moment”. Cue Woody Woodpecker.

If you have cash, treat it like a prized thoroughbred racehorse. Keep it safe, grow it and know that it is beyond difficult to obtain, but so much harder to keep.
Today’s irony is that even though we’ve all been made to feel that money is next to worthless because of near-zero interest rates, it is actually waaay more valuable.

Do. Not. Let. Realtards. Dictate. Prices.

Ignore realtards and get rich.

#180 Greg on 10.14.17 at 8:07 am

#159 Greg on 10.13.17 at 11:35 pm

Start one and find out. The bulk of employment is in the service sector, not manufacturing. Labour is a huge cost component. – Garth

——

Huh? I sent two rebuttals to this that were both deleted. Too far off-topic to meet the “wide-ranging discussion” threshold? Fair enough.

Would have preferred a “Bugger off. Off-topic”. As it stands it looks like I rolled over in the face of your comment Garth. Not true dogs.

But I can understand an off-topic delete. Won’t happen again.

None were deleted. — Garth

#181 David Hawke on 10.14.17 at 8:42 am

SCM will be around for eternity.

Seems to me there was a three post per blog limit imposed a year or so ago which smokin’ dude breaks every day with impunity, same as SCM in this one.

Their meaningless natterings seem to draw readers.

#182 Dharma Bum on 10.14.17 at 9:14 am

#13 Engineer with no job

“Squeeze the bubble too hard and too fast is not a good strategy to deal with the issue.”
——————————————————————–

Hey everybody! Looks like Captain Obvious has joined the Blog Dogs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVlBQtfbiYU

#183 Greg on 10.14.17 at 9:18 am

No seriously now what is it Garth?

2 rebuttals to your weak #159 comment deleted. And a third trying to give you the benefit of the doubt and saying I guess it was too far off topic. Also deleted.

I only have one explanation left. You hate when people poke holes in your weak arguments.

Hopefully I have missed something. Please tell me I have missed something top dog.

None were deleted. – Garth

#184 Stan Brooks on 10.14.17 at 9:39 am

#28 Howard on 10.13.17 at 4:48 pm
This guy just stinks to high heaven. Great pic for finance minister, PM excrement-for-brains!

Finance Minister Bill Morneau waited 2 years to disclose company that owns his French villa to ethics watchdog
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/morneau-company-france-ethics-1.4351933?cmp=rss

——————————
This lying, stubborn, strong head individual should resign immediately.

Conflict of interest in small Businesses bill.
Now failure to disclose ownership of foreign estate

And this man is pretending to be minister of fairness?

Fire and investigate him immediately.

#185 Dharma Bum on 10.14.17 at 9:41 am

Garth’s reaction to the Blog Dogs’ response to the “Too Scary” post from a couple of days ago was akin to someone throwing a whack of raw meat to a pack of starving wolves and then being shocked at the resulting behaviour.

That post was pure Blog Dog bait.

Like chum to sharks.
Goldfish to piranhas.
A lit match to gasoline.

Seriously, did you really expect more from the likes of us?

#186 Trojan House on 10.14.17 at 9:42 am

#118 Dolce Vita on 10.13.17 at 8:33 pm

“I live in the province of Pordenone.”

My dad grew up in San Quirino, about a 15 minute drive north from Pordenone (the city). I’ve been a couple of times. Loved it there. If you are ever in San Quirino I suggest you go eat at La Primula. It’s a Michelin star restaurant that my dad’s cousin owns. It’s fantastic!

#187 Pepito on 10.14.17 at 9:48 am

Governments are the worst providers of shelter. Not their job. – Garth
_________________________________

Access to shelter is a basic human need. I grew up in government housing in Ontario and will remain forever grateful for that roof over our heads when we needed it most. You don’t have a clue. Your comment is just more neo-liberal nonsense.

I am outraged. It is neocon nonsense. — Garth

#188 Grey Dog on 10.14.17 at 9:50 am

To SCM
you thrive in chaos, your posts are attack posts and lack civility. Now you want back in you are all hearts and rainbows. There is an underlying deceitfulness about you. Prove me wrong. I may read you again, or quickly scroll past your your name that never enhanced or informed Garth’s discussion.

#189 Dharma Bum on 10.14.17 at 9:52 am

#8 Penny Henny

“Like I said, wow!”
——————————————————————-

It doesn’t really matter what the content of a particular post is, as long as the word “SHYSTERS” is in it, in all caps, and repeated several times.

It is hilariously entertaining. Therefore, it is allowed.

EXAMPLE:

“They (insert generic non-racist group here) are all dirty rotten SHYSTERS! SHYSTERS, SHYSTERS SHYSTERS!”

See? It’s so funny.

I love Happy Housing Crash guy.

#190 IHCTD9 on 10.14.17 at 9:55 am

#169 Greg on 10.14.17 at 1:14 am

——–

High minimum wages will:

1. Drive demand for technology that eliminates human workers, and these technologies are already here and are being installed. A real job circles the bowl for every consideration given by every business owner to these up and coming technologies.

2. Some business owners will just throw in the towel. There is a good argument for getting out while the getting’s good. A 15.00 minimum wage is just one of the many margin incinerating policies Canadian politicians are cooking up. I know many who have closed up over the last 10 years even though they couldn’t sell the business, they just liquidated everything to their competitors. The general sentiment was it wasn’t worth the effort anymore, they made their money, and didn’t want to risk losing it by staying in business under current conditions. Less businesses means less jobs.

3. Reduce competitiveness across the board. It’s bad enough that you’ve got to compete with cheap foreign labour rates, even worse when your own labour costs keep climbing. This may get some struggling business owners to consider #2.

4. North American consumers largely buy based on cost. They’ll literally buy any no name pc of crap as long as it’s cheap enough. They’ll drive 50km to save 10.00. Higher minimum wages will increase costs to the consumer. The probable results are predictable.

5. Increase the push to contract and part time work.

6. Will result in a disproportionately large reduction in total wages paid to the poorest of the working class as jobs and hours are cut on low end jobs which are easily automated.

#191 Mike in Toronto on 10.14.17 at 10:00 am

#1 Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

Believe what you want.

My wife and I just looked at a house a couple days ago. It was reduced on the market, but had 4 solid offers competing. I’m waiting for the agent to let me know the final sale price.

Stuff is still moving just fine. The liars over at Royal LePage are somewhat right… what was previously an insane bidding war over any patch of dirt is now replaced with tempered bidding wars over reasonably okay houses, with no offers on overpriced ones.

10 years, prices tripled and this is the crash. whoop-de-doo.

#192 Grey Dog on 10.14.17 at 10:02 am

162 Balmuto…I agree with your message. Thanks,

#193 Dissident on 10.14.17 at 10:46 am

#124 Not A Mill, Nor Boomer on 10.13.17 at 8:43 pm
Daily reader of both the blog and the comments. SCM is not the trolly one. The usual suspects who get nasty with SCM have formed the same group think mentality that most packs of jackals do. Garth, it’s your blog . . . Put SCM on a short leash if that’s what it takes to be alpha. Just make sure the jackals have all gotten their rabies shots. Pretty sure it’s too little, too late for a few of them.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

True dat. Which is what I was going on about a week ago, after I sent a few rabid jackals into a tizzy talking about high-minded things like discrimination and diversity. (I’m looking at you n1tro and fartz)

And let’s expose the hypocrisy of those calling SCM a ‘needy’ poster (I mean, its kinda hilarious, in a yappy puppy dog kind of way) when you’ve got Smoking Man peppering the feed with self-indulgent garbage and then trying to sniff SCM’s virtual gonads. What a mongrel. Behave.

If “diversification” is a sound principle in creating an investment portfolio, then why not apply that same principle of “diversity” when creating an inclusive blog comment section. You’ll need a lot to counter-balance the weight of the jackal pack if you want to create any kind of “balanced” discussion. God forbid someone tries to shift the narrative in any way.

#194 Dissident on 10.14.17 at 11:06 am

#185 Karma on 10.13.17 at 2:21 am
#72 Dissident on 10.12.17 at 3:50 pm

“Ummm, diversity is strength is just political fodder for the uncritical mind. While some level of diversity is useful, there’s many examples in which diversity is not superior, nor beneficial to society.”

– – – – – – – – – – – – – –

I’d love to hear some examples of why diversity is not beneficial to society, Karma. And secondly, why the resulting ‘inclusivity’ is harmful as well.

Furthermore, I’d like to point out that “diverse” is exactly what our species has evolved to become; no one human is genetically the same as another, and healthy reproduction depends on diverse DNA, not identical DNA. Otherwise, you suffer from inbreeding defects.

Now, I’m not married to this issue, it doesn’t define my existence on this blog, but maybe you could back up your statements with facts, examples, etc.

And just to punctuate this point, speaking of inclusivity and diversity, here’s an example of neither: a beautiful, accomplished Afghan pilot (the first in her country) is run out of her own country for being a female pilot. (The flight footage of her taking off is pretty great). http://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2016/12/27/first-female-afghan-pilot-asylum-lead-tapper-cutdown.cnn/video/playlists/the-taliban-in-afghanistan/

#195 Saraec8 on 10.14.17 at 11:20 am

#66 Russ on 10.13.17 at 6:27
=============================

Welcome back Mille,

I enjoy your point of view as a youngster, most of the time. But you are really ill-informed to think that all boomers had it good & easy.

Stay away from that myopic rant, don’t worry and be happy.

Why don’t you talk with some BMRs born after 1956? And you will see they struggled in the shadow of the early ones who got the house before inflation and the few supervisor jobs.
Not unlike the Gen X who precede your peoples.

==================

Agreed!! 110% re. The boomers post 1956. My parents are mid-boomers who bought in 1987 at near peak 80s price with high rates before ’89 crash. In ’90 they upgraded now house is prob worth 4x purchase, but they paid through the nose in interest and at near peak price! Plus all their money thrn went to daycare, mortgage and expenses. Not much left to save till we were in school. Dad suffered a layoff in mid90s, and their investments suffered through market dips along the way. Mom was strong earner, but worked for big downtown toronto corp in a time where work-life balance didnt exist for families. Attitude in company was work is 1st, 2nd and 3rd priority in your life, family 4th. As kids, tv and babysitters raised us, and I now know this wasnt easy for mom to deal with. Unlike early boomers, govt renegged (or nearly) on things like baby bonus and cpp. No one ever has it easy, not mid-boomers and not millenials, and not anyone in between.

I’m early 80’s millenial renter, ‘and i approve this (Russ’) message’ ;)

#196 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.17 at 11:21 am

@#126 Flopster
“this weeks happenings has me wondering whether it is worth giving up 5 hours of my weekends to volunteer to try and show people what is really happening with Vancouver real estate”
++++++

Unfortunate but understandable.
However …….
Its a shame that the Real Estate sales “industry” has such an iron grip on verifiable stats.
AND they can post the most outrageous fabrications about real estate sales with seemingly total impunity for Fraud.
A self regulating industry that puts bandaids on gaping wounds. A $5000.00 fine for a $100,000.00 commission on a triple house “flip”? And a 30 day ban from selling……..
Where do I sign up?

Where is the govt legislation? Where are the Crown Prosecutors to press charges of fraud, tax avoidance, etc.etc.etc.
Where is the media in this ungodly mess?

NO ONE in govt OR the mass media seems to give two sh#ts about the ongoing plunder that is racing towards a very bad outcome.

Its a shame the only true “stats” we get are unofficial postings on a blog.

But thats the sad state of a “wild west” Industry that holds all the cards, makes all the rules, and will say anything to get all the money when the the other players flop down their cards…….

#197 Renter's Revenge! on 10.14.17 at 11:30 am

#188 Grey Dog on 10.14.17 at 9:50 am
To SCM
you thrive in chaos, your posts are attack posts and lack civility. Now you want back in you are all hearts and rainbows. There is an underlying deceitfulness about you.

===============================

I think it’s called “gaslighting”.

#198 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.17 at 11:36 am

@#166 Ryan
“Are people still lining up to get flu shots? I really hope not.”
+++++
Nah they’d rather line up for overpriced condos and 25 year mortgages on buildings that havent come out of the ground yet……….

But that being said.
The flu is a nasty one this season.
4 friends and co workers have come down with it in the past week.

#199 Renter's Revenge! on 10.14.17 at 11:38 am

I think SCM suffers from narcissistic personality disorder. I’m not a psychologist, so I can’t be sure. But he/she should probably get checked out by one. Thing is, if you make one person angry, there’s probably something wrong with them, but if you make lots of people angry, there’s probably something wrong with you.

#200 El Joko on 10.14.17 at 12:07 pm

#8 Penny Henny

—————

The safe space is —————–> that way.

#201 MF on 10.14.17 at 12:29 pm

#191 Mike in Toronto on 10.14.17 at 10:00 am

Unfortunately I completely agree.

There is no “crash” in the GTA, and I don’t think there ever will be.

OSFI is just hot air and interest rates will rise at a glacial pace then be reduced again.

All the while our rents will continue to go higher. If i were you, I would just buy. There is no point in timing this market.

MF

#202 Stan Brooks on 10.14.17 at 12:35 pm

#191 Mike in Toronto on 10.14.17 at 10:00 am

So you got an expensive house. That regulars can not afford.

Congratulations. Enjoy the high property tax. If you have another one as an investment, get ready to pay capital gains on the growth in price.

Would you ever be able to retire? Of course not.

Would you kids be able to find a decent job that will allow them to have a house? Of course not.

Would you sell it to rent so you can enjoy the capital gains? Of course not.

So what you are getting is the kick of getting an expensive house that the others can not afford.
Having a small dick, I guess.
It is pretty much the syndrome of the small dick.

And gladly paying for it with the higher property taxes.

Are you regular at expensive entertaining events, like NBA/NHL? Of course not.

Browsing Internet in the smelly basement of a shitty house in increasingly irrelevant city and country with horrible weather.

#203 Stan Brooks on 10.14.17 at 12:39 pm

#201 MF on 10.14.17 at 12:29 pm
#191 Mike in Toronto on 10.14.17 at 10:00 am

Unfortunately I completely agree.

There is no “crash” in the GTA, and I don’t think there ever will be.

OSFI is just hot air and interest rates will rise at a glacial pace then be reduced again.

All the while our rents will continue to go higher. If i were you, I would just buy. There is no point in timing this market.

MF

——————————————-

So you are saying houses selling at 12-15 times average gross annual income is normal? While historical norms have been 3-4?

Sure.

At even 50 % of the current valuations owning a house counting on salary to pay it is becoming increasingly stupid idea.

At the end what you get from the big city is the only opportunity to work. With 1.5-2 hours commute one way to and from work.

If you are smart you can move to a cheaper place, or country, work remotely and live you life as you should, not live to pay your mortgage.

Even a farm in a 3rd world country will give you a better life.

#204 DON on 10.14.17 at 12:47 pm

#169 Oft deleted much maligned stock picker on 10.14.17 at 1:11 am

Why smear The Fraser Insitute with ‘right wing’? These are accountants…not politicians…..they’re certainty not deserving of a back handed association to Nazi’s. Is the Canadian Taxpayers Federation also …’right wing’?
*********************

I take it accountants can’t be right wing and paid to say or report anything within the scope of what they were asked to report on!

The left wing has there think tank as well.

I question both these institutions as most can’t see the forest for the trees.

As for the Canadian Taxpayers federation – I once interviewed for them. Business backed representatives, some very good ones and some self-political ones. By all means list their accomplishments on behalf of taxpayers. Most of these organizations are training and holding grounds for potential political interests and off season jobs.

The problem is…the right wing has had their way more or less for the last what (30yrs). Downsizing, privatizing wealth and socializing risk. Now we venture back to the ultra left under the new block of self interested voters (millens). Reality right?

Of course…maybe just maybe peer to peer communication will lead to more informed voters (than not) regardless of generation. Let them divide and conquer you or come together and take control.

this left and right shit is dated.

#205 DON on 10.14.17 at 12:58 pm

#163 ld Ron the Realtor on 10.14.17 at 12:02 am

Sorry for this guy. But a house sold every 7 minutes in the GTA in September. (24 x 7) Not exactly tumbleweed blowing down Bay Street is it ? 6,378 Sales in 30 days.

The trouble is the massive over supply of real estate agents, not the lack of buyers. You need about 12,000 sales a month to support 48,000 agents and that is not going to happen anytime soon.

********************
Negative momentum from last year and the years before. We are definitely on the down side of a hill. Will have to wait to see how big the hill is.

Weak (gloomy) economic data world wide but especially in Canada. Resulting protectionism and trade wars. Saber rattling, the affect Sears layoffs will have in every major centre accross Canada. More consolidation in Oil and Gas. People living in cars in Vancouver and Victoria.

“Car-dwellers rising: life on the curb of Canada’s most expensive city
‘Something happened and now all they have left is their car,’ says outreach worker”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/homeless-people-living-in-cars-rise-vancouver-seattle-los-angeles-1.4351942

Everything is fine!

#206 Evangeline on 10.14.17 at 1:06 pm

to Smoking Man

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77g38OrdVZA

#207 Joe2.0 on 10.14.17 at 1:19 pm

Sunshine Coast of BC is boom town.
Can’t find enough trades people.
And 100s of homes being built for the migrating boomers.
Plus a mall, brewery’s, distilleries, a large marina boutique businesses…
If your looking for work and sick of the big city check it out.
No traffic.
Paradise.
I’m not a realtor.

#208 45north on 10.14.17 at 1:26 pm

Greg: But assuming the demand for the widget a particular sector sells does not decrease I don’t see how employment in that sector drops. Whatever businesses cannot survive by either becoming leaner or passing on the additional costs to consumers and must therefore layoff/shutter are offset by those that can which will see increased sales and employment.

“assuming the demand for the widget a particular sector sells” – the widget days are gone. Not completely but mostly. Most things are manufactured overseas and imported. Whatever – the margins are extremely thin. After a manufacturer makes its widgets it still has to negotiate with Walmart to sell them. There’s no margin or just a thin, thin margin.

“Whatever businesses cannot survive by either becoming leaner or passing on the additional costs to consumers and must therefore layoff/shutter are offset by those that can which will see increased sales and employment.”

so it all offsets?

Greg: in reply to Garth: Yes it will be disruptive to the service sectors dependent on min. wage labor in the short term, but over the long term, assuming demand is not impacted (which is why the min. wage should not be increased from $15 to $40 – it would kill demand) sector employment levels should remain stable no?

Take the restaurant business – or the ice cream business in Caledon for that matter. It’s fickle. Without any increase in price, demand can drop. Workers meet at a bar after work because it suits them. Small subtle changes means they don’t. Price is only one factor but if you’re the owner and you just raised prices to cover increased wages it’s what you think of.

The point is Greg you’re not an owner. Legislated increase in the minimum wage just looks like gratuitous liberalism. It’s not what we need to survive hard times. Like we’re going to have.

#209 Karma on 10.14.17 at 1:27 pm

Garth, MacLeans wrote about increasing the TFSA limit again and gives credit to the CD Howe Institute for its creation. Are you going to sit quietly while they take the credit?

http://www.macleans.ca/opinion/bring-back-the-10000-tfsa/amp/

#210 DON on 10.14.17 at 1:31 pm

#203 Stan Brooks on 10.14.17 at 12:39 pm

#201 MF on 10.14.17 at 12:29 pm
#191 Mike in Toronto on 10.14.17 at 10:00 am

Unfortunately I completely agree.

There is no “crash” in the GTA, and I don’t think there ever will be.

OSFI is just hot air and interest rates will rise at a glacial pace then be reduced again.

All the while our rents will continue to go higher. If i were you, I would just buy. There is no point in timing this market.

MF

——————————————-

So you are saying houses selling at 12-15 times average gross annual income is normal? While historical norms have been 3-4?

Sure.

At even 50 % of the current valuations owning a house counting on salary to pay it is becoming increasingly stupid idea.

At the end what you get from the big city is the only opportunity to work. With 1.5-2 hours commute one way to and from work.

If you are smart you can move to a cheaper place, or country, work remotely and live you life as you should, not live to pay your mortgage.

Even a farm in a 3rd world country will give you a better life.
*********************

To add to the above;

Why are you talking about crashes. This is proving to be a ‘slow melt’, with the potential for periods of jaw dropping decreases (already experienced). Recessions are always around the corners. Things don’t last forever, nor due extremely over leveraged, un-affordable, housing bubble. You are throwing in the towel too early MF and Mike, it is just getting started.

You guys have thrown in the towel to early.

#211 MF on 10.14.17 at 1:32 pm

03 Stan Brooks on 10.14.17 at 12:3

Not entirely true. I, like millions of others, enjoy living in a large city. I enjoy the amenities, the hustle and the opportunity. My family is here too.

There are currently too many tailwinds for the GTA market to go down.

The commute can be a pain in the butt, but if you are lucky you can find a job that is closer to home or transport and the commute is fine.

MF

#212 Greg on 10.14.17 at 1:34 pm

#183 Greg on 10.14.17 at 9:18 am

None were deleted. – Garth

——

Phew. My apologies. I sent a bunch late last night and when they weren’t this morning I was starting to think I was banned.

You seriously review all of these before publishing them. You need to hire a millenial co-op with a conscience for doing the quick reviews Garth. There are loads of them out there. And for cheap.

#213 AGuyInVancouver on 10.14.17 at 1:45 pm

Governments are the worst providers of shelter. Not their job. – Garth
_ _ _

Garth, what do you think about resurrecting the MURB program from the Seventies? It seems a lot of our rental stock dates from that time so it must have been successful. While the gov’t does’t provide the housing, it encourages it through tax breaks. Seems like it would be a good way to redirect capital from condos to purpose built rental buildings.

#214 Spock on 10.14.17 at 2:05 pm

Let us be fair to the middle class and screw the small businesses while we spend tax payers money like a drunk sailor. Cannot wait for these clowns to be voted out of office.

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/colby-cosh-200000-on-a-budget-cover-thats-exclusively-liberal-tomfoolery

#215 Anne on 10.14.17 at 2:05 pm

Garth I wish I had never discovered your blog. If I would’ve bought a condo back in 2011 instead of being influenced by your garbage that property would have tripled in value by now. The market is not going to crash everybody in the world wants to live in Canada. Please shut this blog down.

#216 Alex K on 10.14.17 at 2:24 pm

#118 Dolce Vita
#99 SCM
#141 Ponzius Pilatus
Do you understand the meaning of all the zeros you posted regarding visitors to Italy? Obviously not, should have never skipped those math classes

#217 Greg on 10.14.17 at 2:25 pm

#190 IHCTD9 on 10.14.17 at 9:55 am
#169 Greg on 10.14.17 at 1:14 am

——–

High minimum wages will:

——–

Comments on your points as follows IHCTD9:

——–

High minimum wages will:

1. Drive demand for technology that eliminates human workers, and these technologies are already here and are being installed. A real job circles the bowl for every consideration given by every business owner to these up and coming technologies.

[Greg] Competition and the drive for profit, drives demand for technology that eliminates human labor regardless of the minimum wage. And as you say that is already happening. But kudos for highlighting something that I believe will be far more disruptive to businesses and employment in the coming years/decades than a higher minimum wage. Automation. That one is definitely a can of worms and a far bigger concern for me than a higher minimum wage.

2. Some business owners will just throw in the towel. There is a good argument for getting out while the getting’s good. A 15.00 minimum wage is just one of the many margin incinerating policies Canadian politicians are cooking up. I know many who have closed up over the last 10 years even though they couldn’t sell the business, they just liquidated everything to their competitors. The general sentiment was it wasn’t worth the effort anymore, they made their money, and didn’t want to risk losing it by staying in business under current conditions. Less businesses means less jobs.

[Greg] I am sympathetic to almost all of that. I truly am. It’s why I thought increasing the minimum wage should have been phased in more slowly. Give businesses a fighting chance to adjust for cryin’ out loud. Your last sentence though I don’t see. I would need to see some data on that one. To your earlier point on automation, I can buy that larger, highly efficient businesses can mean less jobs. But that is going to happen regardless of what the minimum wage is.

3. Reduce competitiveness across the board. It’s bad enough that you’ve got to compete with cheap foreign labour rates, even worse when your own labour costs keep climbing. This may get some struggling business owners to consider #2.

[Greg] If your business is struggling you absolutely should consider becoming more efficient, again, regardless of the minimum wage.

4. North American consumers largely buy based on cost. They’ll literally buy any no name pc of crap as long as it’s cheap enough. They’ll drive 50km to save 10.00. Higher minimum wages will increase costs to the consumer. The probable results are predictable.

[Greg] Absolutely agree that the likely outcome, especially in the short term, before any new efficiencies can be found will be higher consumer costs. I don’t even think Wynn will dispute that. She probably won’t admit it, but she’s not dumb. She knows it.

5. Increase the push to contract and part time work.

[Greg] Sorry I’m not seeing the correlation. There are many factors causing that phenomenon. I don’t see a higher minimum wage being one of them.

6. Will result in a disproportionately large reduction in total wages paid to the poorest of the working class as jobs and hours are cut on low end jobs which are easily automated.

[Greg] To my earlier points automation will happen regardless of a high minimum wage. It is possible a higher minimum wage may accelerate the automation push. But there is a huge assumption there. Namely buisnesses have become complacent and have settled on the status quo with all their competitors. In which case I would argue a higher minimum wage should have been even sooner to force those business to find higher efficiencies in the global marketplace because our global competitiveness needs improvement. But I don’t buy that Canadian businesses have become complacent w.r.t. competitiveness. Yes if you believe the stats it probably lags behind the Americans but there are a number of reasons, besides business complacency, that can explain that.

#218 Bob on 10.14.17 at 2:45 pm

The opinions expressed on this blog about the state of the RE market do not match what I see in Vancouver for instance. Well priced homes are selling, condos are on fire and many of my contacts in the industry are all doing really well.
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadian-home-sales-gain-ground-in-september/article36583988/

#219 Smoking Man on 10.14.17 at 2:58 pm

Globalism replaces western jobs with this.

http://www.wgal.com/article/breaking-authorities-make-one-of-countrys-largest-fentanyl-seizures-in-omaha/12838686

Diabolical inept animals.

#220 Mike in Toronto on 10.14.17 at 3:45 pm

#210 DON

“too early”, you don’t know a lot about me, or I don’t think you know how long a human lives.

I’ve been saving to buy a house since 1998. I franticly saved and was frustrated by the rising market and bought something a little less than I wanted in 2003, sold in 2006 for personal reasons. It wasn’t the right house for me. I stepped from the market for a couple years, then figured the market would tank. It almost did with the crisis in the states, but… 11 years later, and lots of emergency interest rates have tripled the market.

The house I bought in 2003, which I sold in 2006 figuring I made too many compromises and needed to save up more? I can’t afford it anymore.

Naw, after looking at the house the other night, I convinced my wife that her earlier questions about the Montessori school, about her returning to work after having babies, about my stressful contracts, about the RESPs, the easy decisions about vacations, etc, would all have a different answer and we had a mountain of debt in a semi with slopy floors.

So what-ever. I’m not “giving up” as you put it. And it’s certainly not “too early” to “give up”. The market tripled and the “crash” or “slow melt” will my wife and I into our 50s before we can consider buying.

I don’t plan to have a mortgage in retirement. So that’s pretty much it. It’s “too late”.

#221 SoggyShorts on 10.14.17 at 3:51 pm

#71 WelcometoSlurrey on 10.13.17 at 6:48 pm
#56 – They are all financial geniuses.
Real Estate will always go up.

——————————————————————-
I’m sorry you disagree with my math? Just like balanced portfolios, real estate does always go up in the long run, at what rate of return is the question. I merely pointed out the last 7 years of returns and the effects of leveraging. So genius, tell me what part of your investment portfolio has achieved greater than an 18% annualized return ?
*******************************
Anyone can pick a single stock in hindsight that gave an 18% return in a specific time frame of history. How many RE markets would that have worked for in how many 7 year spans? Most people don’t live in Vancouver….

#222 Stan Brooks on 10.14.17 at 3:59 pm

#211 MF on 10.14.17 at 1:32 pm
03 Stan Brooks on 10.14.17 at 12:3

Not entirely true. I, like millions of others, enjoy living in a large city. I enjoy the amenities, the hustle and the opportunity. My family is here too.

There are currently too many tailwinds for the GTA market to go down.

The commute can be a pain in the butt, but if you are lucky you can find a job that is closer to home or
transport and the commute is fine.

MF

————————————————
About enjoying life in a big city.

What amenities?

The crowded subways with constant delay announcements?

The impossible to drive in rush our roads?

The crowd at the malls? Just go to Vaughan Mills for example on the weekend, countless herd of people moving around in circles trying to kill the time as there is nothing else to do.

There is nothing to do in GTA in your leisure time, period.

You need 2 hours just to get out of that trap. To go where? Niagara? Oakville?

———————
Regardless of that, what you see as jobs in GTA currently, 70-80 % of these will be gone in the next 10 years.

Gone. Automation is here to stay and will eliminate the majority of jobs specially in the large metropolitan areas supported mostly by housing boom and services in the past.

The most disruptive force you will ever see in your life.

– banks will eliminate branches
– retailers will automate stores, some will go bankrupt
– most office workers will be gone in favor of remote, virtual teams
– once self driving cars arrive, insurance businesses, car manufacturers, cap companies will die.

So what are you going to do with your ‘expensive’ house and no job?

Look at what happened to Detroit when auto jobs disappeared.

What you are about to witness will be much worse. the disappearance of jobs, not just mere outsourcing.

#223 Md on 10.14.17 at 4:02 pm

So if you buy a property the bank comes to appraise it and tell you if you paid to much? Why not just have the bank come and appraise before you buy? Is that something banks will do? …

#224 Spock on 10.14.17 at 4:10 pm

Greg:

The higher minimum wage with push automation in industries, businesses and sectors where otherwise a worker would have earned the wages.

There was an interesting segment sometime back about the company in California making pizzas with robots. Same for the robot making burgers and the 16K combinations that Starbucks baristas are supposed to make.

Once this automation happens the end result will be that the low end jobs will reduce. Some sectors including service industry just cannot pass on all the costs to the end consumer (unlike IT or some other industries).

Scotia and other banks are doing a huge push for digitalization. This should eliminate a lot of back office jobs.

I have a friend with a shop in the mall. Cannot afford to pay $15 per hour + other costs for a non skilled job of hanging clothes on the racks. Unfortunately, his shop is also in a mall where the anchor tenant is no longer driving in the foot traffic and will soon be going the way of the Dodo. He has already declined renewal of his lease and another small business going to go kaput. He will probably make more money on $15 minimum wage than he would have in his business.

The minimum wage has to be what the market will bear. The reason it is minimum wage is because it is not skilled work (for the most part). Even though this money will flow into the economy as you said it cannot be on the back of businesses in loss. If the reward is not there no one will want to pick up the risk.

Might as well make minimum wage $50 per hour and we can all be government servants.

Time will tell but the future is definitely not bright from what I see around.

#225 Triplenet on 10.14.17 at 4:32 pm

#223 MD
…….Or you can do your own due diligence. Be in control.
Either way you pay. Why not have some say?

#226 Greg on 10.14.17 at 4:57 pm

#208 45north on 10.14.17 at 1:26 pm

“assuming the demand for the widget a particular sector sells” – the widget days are gone. Not completely but mostly. Most things are manufactured overseas and imported. Whatever – the margins are extremely thin. After a manufacturer makes its widgets it still has to negotiate with Walmart to sell them. There’s no margin or just a thin, thin margin.

[Greg] Software is a widget. Ask Google/Facebook or (tooting Canada’s horn) Shopify. Software margins are obscene. They can be over 90%. Seriously SCM/millenials, especially women millenials. Go into software. We need you. And if you are worried about sexism in the industry stop reading about the crap in Silicon Valley U.S.A. Come to Ottawa (I’m sure there the other Canadian cities are fine too but I need you in Ottawa).

That sexism crap is not tolerated in the slightest here in hi-tech Kanata. To the point where “s/he” is slapped now in the workplace. It’s “they” in all communications – gender neutral pronouns dogs. But yeah it’s hard for me to rewire my brain as well. I’m getting better but I devolved into “s/he” and once even a “him” in previous posts in assuming how SCM sees himself.

No worries dogs. I am not going to become the pronoun police. I know that is a bridge too far for you old dogs even though I know, for most of you, your heart is in the right place. For all the others who still have sexist attitudes … and I see it on here occasionally … I hope you don’t own a businesss. Because if you do you are scaring away more than half of the working population: the “she’s” and the “they’s”. Huge inefficiency. And yeah … huge ignorance as well. Up your game bad dogs.

“Whatever businesses cannot survive by either becoming leaner or passing on the additional costs to consumers and must therefore layoff/shutter are offset by those that can which will see increased sales and employment.”

so it all offsets?

[Greg] It more that offsets. Over time higher wages help to improve the standard of living. Which makes Canada a beacon to the rest of the world. It attracts the best and brightest who in turn floats all of our Canadian boats. Trump’s America not so much. Trump could be the best thing that ever happened to the Canadian/American competitiveness divide.

Yeah some anti-immigration crap starting to appear on here as well. Bad anti-immigration dogs are you kidding me?!? A sensible immigration policy that favors the highly qualified resulting in the average immigrant being more highly educated than the average native-born Canadians (that’s right – look it up bad dogs), natural resources coming out our gazoo. Heck even global warming works in Canada’s favor. Terrible but true.

And some people here think Canada is in for a rough ride with what … increasing the minimum wage?!?! It’s a positive but very small blip on a much larger chart that positions the next 30 years for the millenials to seize. And I am not worried about them. If they have half the logic and deductive reasoning as I see in some millenials here they will absolutely seize the moment. They just need to up their game sometimes and it’s easier for them to up their game. They’re your. Their brains are still squishy.

Sorry dogs for digressing and sounding like a Molson commercial. But like I said I have been reading this blog for a while and some the crap here has clearly been hitting a nerve.

And yeah some Americans read this. Stop making us look bad, bad dogs. I know. I’m so cliche. I want us to look nice to the neighbors.

We all have our faults.

And with that I must bow out. I will try to respond to any more of this min. income debate if I think I have anything useful to add. But I have 3 young kids and no time for this blog despite it being a great forum, even with the bad dogs.

And SCM. Listen to Kenny Rogers sometime. Your probably don’t know who that is but google him. I recommend the Gambler and Coward of the County. Sometimes you need walk away. Sometimes you need to run. But sometimes you need to fight.

When you know when to do each that’s when you’ll find respect.

#227 Ace Goodheart on 10.14.17 at 8:46 pm

Partner and myself pull in about 320k per year between the two of us. And we don’t have any mortgages at all.

Three houses. One is on a lake in muskoka that we use as a cottage. Two in Toronto. One we live in the other we rent out. We own all three outright.

The two Toronto ones are in one of Toronto’s “priority neighbourhoods”. Read low income ‘hood. Not popular. Not somewhere the trend setting class would want to live. Got those houses for a song and a dance. Like the Freshco birds. Cheap cheap cheap.

Muskoka property is on a lake no one has ever heard of. Not the big three. Paid almost nothing for it. It has two rooms. Used to be a hunting cabin.

Spent from 2009 to now building code excempt bunkies myself. Cost around 800 per bunkie. It is now a large camp type atmosphere. We have a lot of big parties. The lot can handle about 20 cars and we can sleep 25 people all in beds.

What do you do when you make 320 per year and have no debt?

Think about buying a billion dollar semi in a hip hood?

Think about how much the bank will let you borrow?

Maybe decide you want to move somewhere that the wealthy live?

Hmmmm nope. What you do is called nirvana. Pure existence free of cares or wants. Life as a full human, totally aware and totally alive.

Get rid of your debt and stop social climbing.

#228 Greg on 10.14.17 at 10:11 pm

Some of this I have covered before so I apologize if I sound like a broken record. Comments below …

#224 Spock on 10.14.17 at 4:10 pm
Greg:

——

The higher minimum wage with push automation in industries, businesses and sectors where otherwise a worker would have earned the wages.

[Greg] It’s not a higher minimum wage causing automation. It is the natural tendency of businesses to want to lower costs and increase competitiveness thereby increasing profits. It has been that way since profits existed.

[Greg] What is different now is that it is happening worldwide at a pace never seen before. Disrupting professions previously thought untouchable (e.g. legal clerks, surgeons, etc), and yes, absolutely … minimum-wage jobs, primarily in the manufacturing sector so far but the service sector is ramping up now as you point out below. And it is happening in countries that have an avergae wage rate that would make $15/hour look like a doctor’s salary. It is truly a global phenomenon. Not just Ontario with it’s higher minimum wage.

There was an interesting segment sometime back about the company in California making pizzas with robots. Same for the robot making burgers and the 16K combinations that Starbucks baristas are supposed to make.

Once this automation happens the end result will be that the low end jobs will reduce.

[Greg] It’s not just the low-end jobs (note the surgeons and law clerks I mentioned above). It is sometimes easy to think that low-end jobs will be the most impacted. But sometimes the human touch, even in a minimum wage job is more difficult to replace with automation than in highly paid jobs. Ever talk to some doctor’s? Might as well replace them with an AI robot who knows what questions to ask, what tests to do and spits out a diagnoses.

[Greg] Again automation will be hugely disruptive. It will cut across many job classifications and wage spectrums on a global scale.

Some sectors including service industry just cannot pass on all the costs to the end consumer (unlike IT or some other industries).

[Greg]. Yes they can. Just change the 3 to a 4. And then blame Wynn – everyone will buy that. Others will choose to operate with smaller margins. Still others, will have deeper pockets and choose to operate at a loss for a time to try to undercut competition. And lots of other things in between, The market is an inventive beast. It will all happen. Just like it did before a minimum wage increase. It’s competition. And it can be cutthroat. And if it scares you, you’re not alone and it does not make you somehow less noble. But you probably might not like the risks associated with being a business owner. And that is perfectly fine You are in the vast majority on that front. Business owners are a rare breed but just as noble as labor. Everyone has a place dogs.

Scotia and other banks are doing a huge push for digitalization. This should eliminate a lot of back office jobs.

[Greg] Yep. Many back office functions at banks especially the major ones are already heavily automated.

I have a friend with a shop in the mall. Cannot afford to pay $15 per hour + other costs for a non skilled job of hanging clothes on the racks. Unfortunately, his shop is also in a mall where the anchor tenant is no longer driving in the foot traffic and will soon be going the way of the Dodo. He has already declined renewal of his lease and another small business going to go kaput. He will probably make more money on $15 minimum wage than he would have in his business.

[Greg] That;s automation. That’s not minimum wage. increases. Malls are getting decimated by online. Amazon owns some of the largest building* in the world. Huge warehouses dominated by robots. Insanely efficient and decimating retail. They haven’t quite figured out how to sell clothes well online yet which is probably a key reason why a lot of malls are still around. People still prefer to try things on before buying. Doing that efficiently when the clothes have to be shipped from a Missouri to Ottawa is a big disadvantage for online. But make no mistake. Amazon is trying and they have the size to operate at a loss for a while if they are confident they can figure it out eventually.

The minimum wage has to be what the market will bear.

[Greg] Yes. But I would reword that slightly. Minimum wage increases should be minimal and gradual enough to not impact demand. If a double-double has to go up, in the short term, from $1.20 to $1.30 to accomodate a higher minimum wage are you going to stop buying double-doubles. How about if every double-double across the province does the same. Are you going to stop buying? How about if it goes from $1.20 to $1.50. No? $1.20 to $2.00. We all have our breaking point. The key is to do it incrementally in small amounts so that consumers and businesses can adjust without hurting demand. And then over the long term look for efficiencies to bring the costs back down.

[Greg] I apologize if I sound so clinical. Some businesses will shutter especially in the short term. These are real people with real families that will be impacted. And yes when you are talking about minimum wage increases you are talking about a burden that will disproportinately fall onto business owners. Not the employees. Now business owners will say they will need to cut jobs. They aren’t lying. But the best of breed survivors will hire the unemployed back.

[Greg] But don’t fall in tthe trap of thinking it’s always the business owner getting screwed. Automation disproportinately affects labor and that is a much bigger disruption. At least with the minimum wage some businesses will win and some will lose. Businesses have a fighting chance if it is done properly. Automation though? A boon to businesses. But not nice to labor at all.

The reason it is minimum wage is because it is not skilled work (for the most part). Even though this money will flow into the economy as you said it cannot be on the back of businesses in loss. If the reward is not there no one will want to pick up the risk.

[Greg] Again only some businesses will lose. Others will win for the reasons discussed above.

Might as well make minimum wage $50 per hour and we can all be government servants.

[Greg] See my previous posts. Can’t to do that. It kills demand.

Time will tell but the future is definitely not bright from what I see around.

[Greg] C’mon dog. Cheer up! I blame Trump for all this gloominess. This is where millenials can help. They’re full of that take the world by the horns optimism. Yeah they hate Toronto housing but that’s just another reason why they need to move to Ottawa. Let me try to end on an optimistic note.

On the min. wage front: If you are labor it’s a net benefit. Ask any labor union. If you are a business owner it will be disruptive but demand is not going away. The same people will want the same widgets after a min. wage increase as before. Somebody has to sell those widgets to them.

On automation. Yes there are some very smart people, with sound arguments, that are all doom and gloom. Screw them.. They need to cheer up. The thing is what is the next new job category that will employ millions in 30 years. 40 years, 50 years? They don’t know. That’s why they’re so gloomy. But I am optimistic someone will figure it out in time. That someone will either find an entrepreneur or become one to take it to market. We all have a role and entrepreneurs love great ideas and laugh at risk. They’ll do things like max out HELOCs , or beg wealthy aunts to get good ideas off the ground.

And maybe not today. Maybe not in 5 years. But eventually. One of those great ideas will not be easily automated and employ millions.

And that entrepreneur will be a millenial from today – keeners.

And if a cohort of saviors to save us from the robots does not appear? Hey I said be optimistic. But plan B, and hopefully Garth has stopped reading by now, is a big ol’ income redistribution problem.

Thanks dogs for your time. Tte 2-year old is crying and the missus needs some backup.

#229 45north on 10.14.17 at 10:33 pm

Greg: Go into software. We need you

I did

(I’m sure the other Canadian cities are fine too but I need you in Ottawa).

I’m in Ottawa. Garth can you send Greg my email. Please.

It attracts the best and brightest who in turn float all of our Canadian boats. Trump’s America not so much. Trump could be the best thing that ever happened to the Canadian/American competitiveness divide.

Canada has attracted the best and brightest because of our high standard of living but it didn’t arise because of a legislated minimum wage. It arose because of Canada’s special position after the Second World War. Like the United States, it emerged victorious from the War with its industry and infrastructure intact. Like the United States, its workforce had emerged from the Great Depression. The men and women were industrious and disciplined. Not just that, they had a common sense of values. Christianity comes to mind. From Christianity came a concern and duty for others from which came the idea of a minimum wage. You cannot say it was strictly Christianity because Jewish writing has the same idea of fairness and justice. Amos comes to mind.

“Trump’s America not so much” – Trump is the President but he doesn’t own it. Talking about Canada – Justin Trudeau is the Prime Minister but he doesn’t own it.

But I have 3 young kids and no time for this blog despite it being a great forum, even with the bad dogs.

then you have my sympathy and support

#230 Greg on 10.15.17 at 1:20 am

#229 45north on 10.14.17 at 10:33 pm

I’m in Ottawa. Garth can you send Greg my email. Please.

[Greg] Garth if it is ok with you please send me 45north’s email.

Canada has attracted the best and brightest because of our high standard of living but it didn’t arise because of a legislated minimum wage. It arose because …

[Greg] 45west my exact quote was “Over time higher wages help to improve the standard of living”. You missed out an important “help to”.

Standard of living is so all encompassing that there are many things that feed into it as you note including historical elements.

Although I have never heard religions cited in an standard of living debate. That’s a new one for me I must admit. And please don’t tell me how they factor in … it is sure to be a minefield I care not to traverse.

But, in fairness, there is some honest debate on whether higher minimum wages improve the standard of living. Am often cited case against are due to businesses doing more with less (i.e. becoming more efficient).

But I find itt weak. My question always is why didn’t they become more efficient before the min. wage increase? If they can produce the same amount of widgets with less labor why did it take a min. wage increase for them to figure that out?

The retort is often “because automation suddenly becomes cost competitive to labor as min. wages rise..”

So follow that through. You’re in software 45west. It’s all about logic ….

That is going to happen anyways over the long term. Over the long term automation costs will decline and will displace workers regardless of how low their wage is. That is as true for Canada as it is for Bangladesh.

If you have to worry about something worry about automation. Not min. wage increases. Or don’t worry at all. Have confidence in the human race to find ingenious ways to raise the standard of living in the long term regardless of automation.

Seriously dogs. People gotta stop watching T2 and fearing the robots. Terminator 2 that is. Not Justin. I encourage you to keep a close eye on Justin.

Good-night dogs.

#231 Happy Millennial on 10.15.17 at 1:21 am

Y’all are crazy. Automation is going to happen regardless of whether minimum wage is raised or not. That’s a useless argument. Also post WWII was so productive (although less so for women or people of colour) because of government help to vets for housing and schooling and then higher tax rates boosting the middle class.

#232 maxx on 10.15.17 at 9:30 am

#33 VanMan on 10.13.17 at 5:19 pm

“……The proof is out there… those that come, do not want to leave.”

Especially if they farm environmentally disastrous Atlantic salmon, want a life membership in one of the world’s most pervasive drug cultures, or can’t get enough of endless gray, sopping wet days.

Too much like Hotel California.

#233 VanMan on 10.15.17 at 7:49 pm

#96 BillyBob on 10.13.17 at 7:51 pm

And

#232 maxx on 10.15.17 at 9:30 am

I presume you both are two that didn’t have the finances to make a life in Vancouver and therefore your personal views becomes one to trash the beauty and lifestyle of the wonderful city of Vancouver. It’s true, it’s very tough to make it work here, but if you can life is truly rewarding.

Oct 15th and I spent the day at the beach in the beautiful sunshine. Sure, we have our grey rainy days, but I’ll take a season of rain for 3 seasons of unmatched beauty. Just ask around…