Jar people

More about dog artist Topher Brophy here.

The big news soon in the GTA will be an increase in sales. “The scare is over,” wrote a realtor in a failing Toronto tabloid that shall remain nameless. When the local cartel releases numbers in a few days they’ll come cloaked in the patina of ‘recovery.’ The bleeding was staunched! We’re not gonna die after all!

Meanwhile in the Lower Mainland, lots of moisters never got the memo about peak house and the troubles coming. A ho-hum new townhouse development (starting at a garage-sized 500 square feet) in PoCo, of all places (30 clicks from downtown YVR) caused pandemonium late last week. Whipped up by a social media campaign, the kids were camping out in pup tents for four days and three nights prior to Saturday’s launch.

Here’s the vid posted by a triumphant marketing team at Montrose Square.

 

Well, does all this mean it’s over? The correction, that is. Was it, like geriatric sex, promising but achingly short? Or is this a head fake? A classic bull trap?

Many point to the Van experience as ‘proof’ the GTA will recover fast. Following the imposition of the Chinese Dudes Tax, then the Empty Houses Tax, plus the CRA Specker Tax crackdown, the market slumped and prices wobbled. But lately sales volumes and average prices have picked up, as the sales mix changed dramatically. Condos and towns are hot. Detacheds are not. Luxury properties are growing spores. Priced out of single homes, but horny as ever, Mills have been pouring into ‘affordable’ places, clinging to the belief they must buy-now-or-buy-never.

So cute. An entire generation that grew up with romping prices and declining interest, irrationally afraid of financial assets (their parents’ mutual funds were whacked in 2008), with the financial literacy of a Starbucks Iced Coconut Milk Mocha Macchiato, rushing to spend their pre-approved mortgage money so they can look forward to closing costs, strata fees, property taxes, maintenance and irrepayable debt at increasing rates. Are they smart to be camping on the side of a Port Coquitlam road and peeing in jars so they can buy something in four minutes knowing what’s coming, or is this youthful ignorance on parade?

Beats me. I come here for the dog pictures.

Well, it’s clear economists are concerned. Last week’s personal debt numbers plus fresh warnings from international central bankers were chilling. Looks like the US Fed is on track for four interest rate increases in 12 months with an expected December pop. The Bank of Canada will have one more (at least) this year, for a tripling of its benchmark in 2017. The Dotard-Rocket Man thing threatens to get out of control. Ottawa is about to tax the poop out of two million small business operators. And have you checked out weather events lately?

Mostly, though, the universal stress test is what has experts worried. Expected next month, it’ll add 2% to current rates in terms of income qualification. The impact? Removing between 5% and 20% of available credit (depending who you listen to), with a corresponding impact on pricing.

So here’s a key question: does a rebound in activity from the depths of July have anything to do with people accelerating buying decisions because of rising rates? Are those pre-approved for mortgages for 60 or 120 days scrambling to spend that money before home loans swell again?

Emile is one of those moisters in angst. “My wife and I just happened to get pre-approved for a 5 year fixed at 2.54% on the morning of Sept 7th (the date of the last rate hike),” he says. “We are eligible for this rate for 120 days. We live in a town where the average house is likely about 500k. If I wait till mid-winter and get the same house at 450k (10% drop) I would likely have to finance at a higher rate and the house would be no more affordable for me.  So the real question is this:  What do we do?”

That’s easy. Wait. Buying six months from now after the above takes effect will likely result in a lower price. Yes, rates may be higher so, yep, the monthly will be about the same. The big difference is a lower debt – in this case about $50,000 less. So assuming you stay in that property for a decade or more, two mortgage renewals lie ahead at uncertain rates. Money could cost more or less in 2023 and 2028 – but one certainly will be that you have a smaller amount to finance, minimizing the impact. Plus, if you convert your monthly mortgage into a weekly one, the effective amortization period will be sharply reduced – all for the equivalent of a single extra payment per year.

So, to conclude, higher rates and less credit will reduce the cost of real estate. Surely you didn’t need 828 words to tell you that.

 

219 comments ↓

#1 CanadianOne on 09.24.17 at 3:04 pm

Dead cat bounce?!

#2 paracho on 09.24.17 at 3:11 pm

It is the clam before the storm . The last strength in a bubble about to pop.
Great advice again. Better to have a larger down payment with less debt and a higher rater , than a lower downpayment, more debt at a lower rate.

#3 Fake News Again on 09.24.17 at 3:12 pm

Such an easy catch for the CBSA and the CRA. There they are…..right there…..in PoCo.

But Govt never does anything efficient. And that is why Canada is DOOOMED !!

#4 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.24.17 at 3:15 pm

Dirty evil [email protected] SHSYSTERS! Keep lying and fudging the numbers. NOTHING I can see driving through the GTA or driving to Brampton to visit in-law. I see the same houses and towns for sale with empty open houses for MONTHS. Let the SHYSTERS lie. With new stress tests we will see even less houses sell. Your lies will make you poor dirty SHYSTERS. :-)

Going to be a Happy HAPPY Housing Crash! :-)

#5 2.54 on 09.24.17 at 3:15 pm

Dunno, 2.54% sounds like a pretty sweet deal to me.

If there is merely a small or no correction ahead, they will feel they lost out.

Hard to call.

If they intend to buy within 5 yrs, maybe go for it.
If they are fine for renting a decade, then not buying is much smarter.

#6 Dan.t on 09.24.17 at 3:18 pm

I lost all faith in Canadians. I am one but have been outside during the whole , buy a house and get rich beyond your wildest dreams…sorry, now buy a condo and get rich beyond your wildest dreams…sorry, now, buy a 175 square foot garage near a city and get rich beyond your wildest dreams…buy anything you can afford RE related, you are good.

All your friends will tell you so, your family will think you da man, and you don’t have to know jack about economics, rising interest rates, how restrictive credit policies effect anything but you should know unicorns are pretty.

And crypto is in a bubble? The stock market is in a bubble? BC houses, or POCO pre-sales, nope, it’s different this time. The herd is super super strong in BC Garth. I said it for years. Everyone and their dog is a real estate guru. Gas station employees (not that there is anything wrong with that) talk real estate and itch to get into a pre-sale.

Thank your local government policies over the last 18 years. Think logical and then reverse it and that is what you are dealing with…

-Debt is good as long as you get as much house as possible
-It is different in Canada- everyone wants to live there
-China will buy your 640 square foot condo for at least 180k over ask.
– Interest rates will stay low
-There is zero correlation between a 2.4% mortgage and your ability to afford a 500k condo! Seriously.

Financial morons. But I guess not. As long as prices keep going up in POCO, those on the side lines are the morons…(like how I turned my bear comments into a bull statement- I forget who likes to rip me on that one)….

Anyhow, my short stays in BC always leave me baffled. Oh, just waiting till my 1200 sq bung is worth 1.8 then I m cashing out, oh, this is my retirement, everything I have is in this house, oh, rates only went up 0.25% people will still pay a mortgage, it’s different this time and 20 other variation of the same.

The herd is brainwashed hard or super smart. I think the former.

Save your breath when you talk about BC.

#7 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.24.17 at 3:22 pm

Watching SHYSTERS waste their time on open houses and making no sales makes me https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbZSe6N_BXs .
Knowing they won’t be tricking people into financially murdering themselves.

Many of you SHYSTERS are financially hurting with some of you owing tens of thousands in unpaid taxes. You dirty SHYSTERS are looking at 3-5 years of NO MONEY!

Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#8 Pete on 09.24.17 at 3:30 pm

Not seeing anything sell anywhere in the GTA. LOL. Realtors will bury themselves in lies while leaving OSFI no choice but to usher in the new stress test. Good luck with making a sale after that.

#9 For those about to flop... on 09.24.17 at 3:31 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Coquitlam.

These guys are a borderline case thinking about joining the Smashing Pumpkins crew,but with the much lower assessment and the market saying ” Come back when your serious” these guys will do well to get ask and break even after expenses.

Picked up for 1.45 in March 2016 ,which obviously is a lot of money for a 59 build, the assessment comes in at the much lower figure of 1.30

Hopefully for these guy’s sake it will sell quickly now that the Sprice is right…

1669 Sprice Avenue, Coquitlam

Aug 29:$1,699,000
Sep 21: $1,599,000
Change: – 100000.00 -6%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=1669%20Sprice%20Avenue,%20Coquitlam&ptype_house=1&max_price=1300000&min_price=800000&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzWE0xNg==

#10 rainclouds on 09.24.17 at 3:31 pm

Yeah sure housing in Van will settle at current levels.
Grow ops and airbnb forever
RE Delusion is a disease in this town

#11 Danny on 09.24.17 at 3:41 pm

In Etobicoke….3 new towers over 40 floors sold out except 4 condo units now for sale for over 5 months ….they are on the 41st ” bad luck floor ” …prices highest of all units based on high prices reached in Toronto’s high market frenzy of spring this year…NOT selling yet prices not dropping.
These…….45 floors high….3 towers ….ready for occupancy in 2019.
Then we will see the extent of speculation ….. if the “for sale signs ” start cropping up and competition starts.

Only time will tell……but Tridel already know the demographics of the purchasers….and won’t tell.

Stay tuned until then…..if man baby Trump doesn’t take his usual childish fit and brings the world down to the ground with his trigger finger…. fighting like a schoolyard bully with his matching bully and similar low moral kid in North Korea.
We could all be damaged for a long time……because of 2 morans….one dictator in North Korea and American fool acting everyday like a dictator…

#12 nubbers on 09.24.17 at 3:42 pm

If my OH were faced with an impending mortgage stress test, she would be screaming at me to ‘buy now before it is too late’, along with the majority of the population.

Add in the fact that a significant number of people are still not aware of crashing house prices, and I can well imagine that there is a bit of a mini-boom lurking, as the last few lemmings make a dash for the cliff edge.

#13 Entrepreneur on 09.24.17 at 3:53 pm

The group emotion with saliva running from mouths and eye-bulging eyes yelling sign me up asap is so apparent here.

When looking at property one should do it with a rational attitude and never rush on signing on the dotted line. Ignore the pushy realtor and walk around, notice the good/bad points then take at least 2/3 days to make a decision.

Merkel won but with competition. This is going to be interesting. Wonder how T2 is going to handle this?

#14 Stan Broock on 09.24.17 at 3:57 pm

#6 Dan.t on 09.24.17 at 3:18 pm

Who cares any more what happens in the inconsequential frozen tundra inhibited by brain frozen individuals and ruled by village idiots?

Accept that you live in 3rd world country and simply move on.

#15 Millennial905er on 09.24.17 at 4:01 pm

Can’t come fast enough as far as I’m concerned. The century house down the street from me sold “above asking”. The list price was 1.3 million. Found out that the wife is a MLMer selling vitamin pills.

I don’t want to live in this world anymore.

#16 No to Capitalism Yes to Feminism He for She on 09.24.17 at 4:04 pm

Maybe it is true that when you give a white middle class girl a chance to become a CEO of a company which pays $1.00 a day to women in 3rd world countries for capitalist profit, Toronto is growing.

I’ve seen at least 35 of those City Notices about construction of 70+ story condos for single, middle and upper class women.

Toronto is a growing city.
#He for She.

#17 Ben on 09.24.17 at 4:07 pm

The people buying now are first-timers, buoyed on by Christie’s free money. They can barely see that rates are rising, or they don’t care, believing that some CHinese dude will always be waiting in the wings to buy their home if SHTF.

Meanwhile, I calculated that with my net worth of 2.6 million, about slightly less than half of which is in my home. If I cashed out now, and invested it all in XEI (high dividend canadian index), I would generate about 112K a year, over 9k a month (minus taxes), more than enough to retire, and pay rent, at my age of 37.

#18 Ace Goodheart on 09.24.17 at 4:20 pm

The biddings wars are back. In my Toronto neighbourhood anyway. We just had a semi sell over asking in a frenzied open house, with cars lined up and down the street. Rock concert type atmosphere.

My street is actually in one of the poorest parts of the city that is unfortunately rapidly gentrifying and the marketing of this particular semi, priced at a tad over 600K, was like dropping a piece of bloodied meat into a shark tank. The feeding frenzy was instant and vicious.

Not sure what the rest of TO is doing real estate wise, but despite an apparent drop in house prices which I am told is over 20%, both of the houses I own in Toronto (a semi and a detached) apparently have appreciated about 15% since March of this year (if the selling price of said semi, and the interest it generated, is any indication).

Apparently if I listed either of my houses (located down the street from each other) I would have a full open house and a bidding war.

Oh well. People never learn I guess.

#19 Ex-Cowtown on 09.24.17 at 4:34 pm

Looks like the US Fed is on track for four interest rate increases in 12 months with an expected December pop. The Bank of Canada will have one more (at least) this year, for a tripling of its benchmark in 2017. The Dotard-Rocket Man thing threatens to get out of control. Ottawa is about to tax the poop out of two million small business operators. And have you checked out weather events lately?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Wow, starting to sound like Zero Hedge around here today. I’m shocked, just shocked!

#20 Penny Henny on 09.24.17 at 4:34 pm

#2 paracho on 09.24.17 at 3:11 pm
It is the clam before the storm .
////////////////

Clam before the storm.
I like that, can I use it.

#21 MF on 09.24.17 at 4:37 pm

#14 Stan Broock on 09.24.17 at 3:57 pm

Simply Unbelievable.

Upset you cannot buy a house? Sure. Me too.

Calling Canada third world is flat our wrong though.

Go talk to some people, new immigrants most likely, who are actually from the third world and see if they agree.

MF

#22 MF on 09.24.17 at 4:44 pm

I get that this could be people rushing in to purchase before this “supposed” stress test, but I am still bullish on GTA housing. Demand is still high from what I can see.

Good friend just purchased a condo in Maple. Locked in before any “supposed” rate increases. She had been renting for a while and forking around 50% of her salary so someone else could benefit and decided no more. She is also newly engaged now.

Point is most millennials are still clamouring to buy. All my friends/family members who bought have made a killing on their purchase too.

That mentality isn’t going anywhere. Not from what I can see.

MF

#23 Game Over on 09.24.17 at 4:44 pm

I just hope they follow through with the proposed OSFI changes. Don’t let this thing beat the standing 8 count and get back up..

#24 Debtslavecreator on 09.24.17 at 4:48 pm

Dead cat bounce
Credit is drying up faster than paint
At least 2 banks using 4.84 to qualify GDS
Mtg rates up Monday again with RBC 5 year fixed at 3.29
By May and June next year it is likely prices will be down 25 % or so from where they are at Sept month end
Caveat emptor

#25 Debtslavecreator on 09.24.17 at 4:48 pm

RBC 5 year at 3.39

#26 Dups on 09.24.17 at 4:52 pm

http://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/mobile/nova-scotia-doctors-fed-up-with-planned-tax-changes-1.3603398

Liberals will loose the comming election guaranteed.

#27 3s on 09.24.17 at 5:05 pm

In the inverted financially repressed world of today fundamentals doesn’t matter. Any decline in prices is just a reason to get in which then obviously leads to a quick recovery;) Same for shares or anything. Find the bubble and find the entry point. If anything goes wrong the elite will quickly reflate. Just hang in there.

#28 Howard on 09.24.17 at 5:12 pm

Expected next month, it’ll add 2% to current rates in terms of income qualification.
———————-

Sigh. I guess my lesson on the difference between percent and percentage point has fallen on deaf ears?

Worry about things that matter. — Garth

#29 TurnerNation on 09.24.17 at 5:21 pm

Too bad Smoking man did not record a ‘Parascope’ vid @ General Store.

That’s a family establishment. Reprobates are not allowed. — Garth

#30 Rexx Rock on 09.24.17 at 5:34 pm

Only a bad recession and a couple rates hikes may dampen the real estate market.
70% of Canadians own their home,a strong economy,strong currency,low unemployment rate,strong consumer confidence and affordable medical insurance.I guess thats why our avg house price is almost double of the USA.

No it’s not. — Garth

#31 Nick on 09.24.17 at 5:47 pm

Higher rates and lower prices would be amazing. Definitely preferable to what we have now. Each extra dollar put towards the house provides a much better return. It rewards savers, smart spenders, and those who purchase a home within their means. Buying and paying over 25-30 years is for fools.

#32 Gravy Train on 09.24.17 at 5:47 pm

#20 Penny Henny on 09.24.17 at 4:34 pm
#2 paracho on 09.24.17 at 3:11 pm

“Clam before the storm. I like that, can I use it?”

How about oysters before the tempest? Or was it a teapot? :)

#33 Keith in Rio on 09.24.17 at 5:48 pm

I’d rather carry a $100K mortgage at 20% than a $250K one at 2.5%………..

#34 maka on 09.24.17 at 5:50 pm

Top 10 countries with the Worst Debt-to-GDP Ratios
1. Japan (245% at $11.59B)
2. Greece (173% at $338B)
3. Italy (138% at $138B
4. Portugal (133% at $274B)
5. Belgium (111% at $111B)
6. Spain (106% at $106B)
7. Canada (106% at $106B)
8. Ireland (105% at $105B)
9. France (98% at $98B)
10. Brazil (82% at $82B)

https://howmuch.net/articles/worlds-debt-2017

Proud to be in top ten.

#35 Howard on 09.24.17 at 5:53 pm

Smoking Man, you should’ve stuck with your original prediction of a September recovery, since that seems to be exactly what’s happening.

Nothing goes down in a straight line.

#36 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 5:57 pm

#29 TurnerNation on 09.24.17 at 5:21 pm
Too bad Smoking man did not record a ‘Parascope’ vid @ General Store.

That’s a family establishment. Reprobates are not allowed. — Garth
………

Had to google Reprobates.

#37 NoName 2 on 09.24.17 at 5:58 pm

While it is a black-swan type event, if Amazon ends up choosing Toronto for its second headquarter (which is not a 0 chance event at all), we can expect the RE Bonanza to come back and defy all expectations of a correction.

Seriously? In a region of 6 million people? Dreamer. — Garth

#38 NoName on 09.24.17 at 6:03 pm

#21 MF on 09.24.17 at 4:37 pm
#14 Stan Broock on 09.24.17 at 3:57 pm

Simply Unbelievable.

Upset you cannot buy a house? Sure. Me too.

Calling Canada third world is flat our wrong though.

Go talk to some people, new immigrants most likely, who are actually from the third world and see if they agree.

MF

—-

i have to disagree on this one, sadly but canada is at least 1/2 way there. If you lived in one and you came here it would feel like night and day, but give those people 10 yrs to reach end of social step ladders, and you’ll sea what they will say.

its like all people that leave canada and go to 3rd world or developing country to live. In both cases standard of living increases. for the people thal left country.

That feeling you have about not being able to afford house, with decent wage in your own country, i same feeling had before coming here. Doing “good” but unable to get ahead. What’s wrong with that picture.
How many ballet places you know in canada, or how many people you know that attend ballet? that should be your litmust test, not some pur rif raf like me, who just upgraded his bicycle to k-car.

Capish?

(boring music is taken out)
PRES PLAY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3PMCD7aMRI

#39 gfd on 09.24.17 at 6:07 pm

DELETED

#40 T on 09.24.17 at 6:07 pm

#22 MF on 09.24.17 at 4:44 pm

Point is most millennials are still clamouring to buy. All my friends/family members who bought have made a killing on their purchase too.

That mentality isn’t going anywhere. Not from what I can see.

—–

This we can agree on. Most of my friends are house hungry as well. Even the ones whom acknowledge the price downturn are hot to buy whatever they can.

I will tell you though. Don’t rush into buying a house to live in until you start a family. I’ve had several – by using the same measurements as other you could say I ‘made’ good money in the houses. I still think they weren’t worth the headaches and weekends spent on various house chores.

I do miss my waterfront condo though … that was the hardest property to let go of. But still glad I did. Maintenance went from $450 to $900 a month within 3 years and went up again just after I sold.

#41 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.24.17 at 6:12 pm

Sorry dirty SHYSTERS nothing is selling and you know it. For sale signs EVERYWHERE and no sold signs. OSFI will now bury you in financial ruin band usher in the new stress test.

#42 Red hot in Victoria on 09.24.17 at 6:12 pm

Real estate is red hot just ask Brad MacLaren.

https://www.realtor.ca/Agent/1561414/Brad-MacLaren-752-Douglas-St-Victoria-BC-V8W3M6

#43 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.24.17 at 6:13 pm

I sold a rental property in Kelowna about a year ago for over asking. Today, my daughter sold an identical unit next door to the one I sold for over asking and for 25% more than I got !!!
Fastest housing crash ever wot ? Light em up folks, the party is back on or was never over here in BC.

#44 Howard on 09.24.17 at 6:13 pm

#22 MF on 09.24.17 at 4:44 pm
I get that this could be people rushing in to purchase before this “supposed” stress test, but I am still bullish on GTA housing. Demand is still high from what I can see.

Good friend just purchased a condo in Maple. Locked in before any “supposed” rate increases. She had been renting for a while and forking around 50% of her salary so someone else could benefit and decided no more. She is also newly engaged now.

————————————-

You seem to know a lot of people living well beyond their means.

Even as a poor 25-year old in 2005 earning $30K/year in Toronto I still only spent about 1/3 of my salary on rent, and that was at Yonge & Eglinton. Of course rents have risen since then whereas salaries have not, but it shouldn’t be difficult to find a decent place to live that’s cheap enough to keep the housing percentage at no more than 40%.

#45 Lost...but not leased on 09.24.17 at 6:14 pm

Re the Montrose Square development in PoCo.

Seem to recall in the past that line-ups were often staged ???..to give the illusion of demand???

If do a search……they have almost 20 different floor plans..from 500+ sq ft. to 1400+ sq ft. Is this good or bad ?

Their website offers a $5000 credit if you register opening day(yesterday)…and it allows you to register on line. The developer, Quantum Properties, appears to be local with projects in the Poco Abbotsford area.

It appears that they are catering to a domestic market…but who knows till the dust settles?

#46 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 6:15 pm

If T2 don’t back down, what I started a while ago will become a flood.

Perhaps that’s what Soros wants. To crush the CAD like he did in London,

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/09/21/big-money-leaving-canada-over-tax-changes-john-manley-says_a_23218305/

#47 T on 09.24.17 at 6:15 pm

#14 Stan Broock on 09.24.17 at 3:57 pm
#38 NoName on 9.24.17 at 6:03 pm

Do you even know what third world country means?

It has NOTHING to do with economy.

The ignorance of commenters on this blog amazes me sometimes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_World

#48 OttawaMike on 09.24.17 at 6:21 pm

Get an LCBO agency outlet for Belfountain GS and make Smoking man your mascot and logo.

#49 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 6:25 pm

#35 Howard on 09.24.17 at 5:53 pm
Smoking Man, you should’ve stuck with your original prediction of a September recovery, since that seems to be exactly what’s happening.

Nothing goes down in a straight line.
…….

temporary, fools with pre-approved once there gone, straight down. last chance to get out boomers.

#50 Geena McDudley on 09.24.17 at 6:29 pm

Thinking of moving 1% of my cash in DLR as a hedge..what do you think Smoking Man?

#51 Van City Man on 09.24.17 at 6:33 pm

Vancouver has come roaring back.

#52 Lost...but not leased on 09.24.17 at 6:38 pm

#34 maka

Japan has (by far)the highest debt to GDP ratio.

Oh ……how the once mighty have fallen.
Recall in the late 1980s/early 1990’s how Japan was flexing its economic muscle, going on international buying sprees and had some of THE highest RE prices in the world?(at one point…where portions of Tokyo valued more than entire state of California)

Lots of articles re what happened in Japan…record low interest rates ……..rampant speculation in RE and Stock market…forcing higher interest rates…then the inevitable crash…aggravated by higher savings rates.

Sound familiar….. hint hint?

Albeit Japan is ethnically and culturally homogeneous society (and subsequent herd think)….the lessons can be extrapolated to more diverse nations where greed and speculation know no bounds.

#53 All Lies on 09.24.17 at 6:41 pm

This market is crumbling in the GTA, nothing moving in my neck of the woods. Delusional prices, delusional sellers, no buyers. The condo people / segment, is just the looser Millennials. These youngsters will get wiped out with the upcoming crash. All they will come away with is a participation badge, which most of them collect, as only the ones with real ability got first place.

#54 gfd on 09.24.17 at 6:46 pm

With all due respect, here is link only.

https://www.therebel.media/morneau_still_shelters_income_in_six_numbered_companies

Check JILL AND JOHN WARD commented 1 day ago.

#55 rainclouds on 09.24.17 at 6:47 pm

#50 data?

Didn’t think so….

#56 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 6:54 pm

Conservatives ahead of librals in new poll. Be a landslide come next election. Just hope Canada can be salvaged after T2 globalist poster boy destroys our coulture and Economy.

#57 Ace Goodheart on 09.24.17 at 6:55 pm

RE: #37 NoName 2 on 09.24.17 at 5:58 pm

” While it is a black-swan type event, if Amazon ends up choosing Toronto for its second headquarter (which is not a 0 chance event at all), we can expect the RE Bonanza to come back and defy all expectations of a correction.

Seriously? In a region of 6 million people? Dreamer. — Garth”

Actually what appears to be happening right now is a form of mass exodus from the USA.

People are really frightened of Trump. Hell, he is currently attacking professional football players (which is as we all know, the holiest of holy sports in the USA, equivalent to a religion for most Americans).

People are really frightened of that guy. I meet Americans all the time who are up here basically hiding from him.

Even some of the big US companies (which rely mostly on “alien”, ie “non white” talent for the intelligence of their operations – hint Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook) are starting to cry uncle.

Trumpster is not a wild card, he is more along the lines of what would happen if the angry old man at the end of your street who shouts at the kids and is always trying to get into an argument with everyone, suddenly was in charge of the world. He cannot relate intelligently to anyone and has to be constantly in conflict with whomever he is interacting with. This makes him really dangerous as a leader.

And Americans are becoming refugees, fleeing their own country.

Provide a link supporting ‘mass exodus’ of Americans to Canada. — Garth

#58 NoName on 09.24.17 at 6:57 pm

#46 T on 09.24.17 at 6:15 pm
#14 Stan Broock on 09.24.17 at 3:57 pm
#38 NoName on 9.24.17 at 6:03 pm

Do you even know what third world country means?

It has NOTHING to do with economy.

The ignorance of commenters on this blog amazes me sometimes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_World


let me just tell you that flush toilet was to high tech for one of the places i lived in. I know what 3rd world country is. Maybe if i tell you that i lived under
Dictatorship
Hyper inflation
Oppressive Government
Civil disobedience
Deflation
Armed agresion
War
and
Peace.
Maybe just maybe i may know which way we are headed, but again i was wrong before.

NoName
I’m not always right, but i am never wrong.

#59 Keith in Rio on 09.24.17 at 6:58 pm

Canada truly is a 3rd world country……..how do I know ?

My permanent residency is in a 3rd world country also………heh.

#60 Frank on 09.24.17 at 6:58 pm

DELETED

#61 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 7:00 pm

#47 OttawaMike on 09.24.17 at 6:21 pm
Get an LCBO agency outlet for Belfountain GS and make Smoking man your mascot and logo.
…..

Would you beilive me if I told you the guy hitting these keys calling himself smoking man actually dosent drink or smoke. Just a ploy to Sell Gonzo style books.

Anytime I do a Crazy Parascope get anywhere from 5 to 10 book sales. On as low as 100 views. It’s all about author persona than content as I’m discovering.

#62 NoName on 09.24.17 at 7:00 pm

@ T

if you look at map on that wiki you posted, i did came from green portion of map.

NoName
I’m not always right, but i am never wrong.

#63 Stone on 09.24.17 at 7:02 pm

A couple weeks back I did the math on this and will do it again as the nonsense hasn’t seemed to stop yet with morons (of all ages) continue to buy real estate.

Debtslavecreator mentionned above that RBCs 5 year fixed rate is at 3.39%. So, I plug into my handy calculator the rate, $100,000 as mortgage amount over 25 years, the payment comes to $493.35/month. That is $5,920.20/annually. Let’s consider a $500,000 home with 20% downpayment (self earned, bank of mom and dad, laundered, whatever). That means they need a $400,000 mortgage which comes to $23,680.80/annually for P&I payments (and we all know that the principal portion repayment is negligible to nil in those first 5 years so lets say it’s nearly 100% going to interest payments – aka: the garbage). Add $5,000 for taxes, condo strata fees, etc and another $3000 for repairs/improvements (I think $3,000 is low but whatever). Total outlay annually comes to $31,680.80 or $2,640.07/month.

Then, take into consideration the $100,000 downpayment that’s not earning you anything sitting in the house as dead equity which could be invested. Lets say if it was invested and garnered a conservative 5% return after tax (and yes, I think that’s super conservative), that’s another $5,000 these would be homeowners would be out of pocket for. Now add that to the $31,680.80 above and these winners are out of pocket $36,680.80/annually or $3,056.73/month.

How about this instead. Rent! My rent for a fully detached house is $2,100.00/month or $25,200.00. I’m in the GTA and there are plenty of houses going at this price and lots below this price so I don’t consider this bottom of the barrel cheap. As a renter, my true rent is less as the $100,000 not used as a downpayment is earning lovely dividends, capital gains and interest. Therefore, my cost to rent drops $5,000.00 and so my renting cost is actually $20,200.00 annually or $1,683.33/month.

That’s an annual difference of $16,480.80 between owning and renting. Until renting becomes more expensive than owning (definitely not going to happen anytime soon), why would anyone be stupid enough to buy now?

And for those in BC who are complaining about renting being so costly, you’re mobile! Pick up and move elsewhere. There are lots of other places to live for work (including the GTA – I know. I feel the bile coming up as I write that – LOL).

And for those in BC who stood in line in PoCo to buy one of those spec houses (whatever age you are), lets see how you feel about your purchase in the next few months, year, 5 years. All I can say is, I hope Happy Housing Crash Everyone buys your real estate at pennies on the dollar!!! Stupidity needs to be punished (without restraint).

Come on OSFI and the B-20 rules (including the requalifying at renewal – especially that one). Come on BoC and raise your rates. It’s time for a change. Time to make specuvesting a thing of the past.

How I love my investment portfolio and it’s earning potential. You can’t buy that kind of peace of mind. Oh, my mistake. Yes. Yes you can.

#64 SoggyShorts on 09.24.17 at 7:04 pm

#28 Howard on 09.24.17 at 5:12 pm
Expected next month, it’ll add 2% to current rates in terms of income qualification.
———————-

Sigh. I guess my lesson on the difference between percent and percentage point has fallen on deaf ears?
*********************************
If zero people are confused, does it really matter?
No one thinks that Garth meant rates will change from 2% to 2.04%.

#65 Lost...but not leased on 09.24.17 at 7:08 pm

#45 Smoking Man

Crashing the CAD ala Soros?

Wuz thinking da same ting !
May be a good idea to review how Soros took on the British Pound,..deja vu for Canada?

What is Turdeau and Moroneau really doing?.
We don’t yet know the final result is..but the key issue is “certainty”.

Right or Wrong….its worse than a crowded elevator fart in a stuck elevator and every occupant contributing…sheer dread and pandemonium.

Perhaps T2 and Moroneau are sending coded messages to the big boys to get out while they can..the 99% of the rest of us be damned. Soros saw an opportunity when Germany and Britain were engaged in a currency war in early 1990’s ..and bet against the Pound….is the current rise of CAD vs USD another template..simply priming for a collapse ?

What is Canada role and on the world stage…really..?
It appears we are somewhere between a (i)mini me and (ii)schadenfreunde to the USA.

The Agenda 2030 end game appears to be to engineer Canada into another failed nation by non military means….the most insidious.

#66 Current State on 09.24.17 at 7:10 pm

I visited couple of open houses in Vaughan this weekend and the results were surprising.
1. We went to one house where the price was dropped two times, agent was waiting for people but there was silence. We were asked to put any offer and they will work with us to make it happen.
2. Agents are willing to show properties and send information without signing any BRA. Looks like they are not getting enough work. I remember couple of months back, they were showing cold shoulder.
3. Mortgage rules are tough but people somehow still using fraud techniques are getting through.

#67 Freebird on 09.24.17 at 7:10 pm

#37 noname
While it is a black-swan type event, if Amazon ends up choosing Toronto for its second headquarter (which is not a 0 chance event at all), we can expect the RE Bonanza to come back and defy all expectations of a correction.
————-
Not sure about new HQ but they just hired 2K for new Manhattan office. Seems tax breaks played a role. Big win for NYC.

http://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-hiring-2000-people-for-new-nyc-office-2017-9

#68 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 7:17 pm

Was watching Evan Solomon show Today. He had 4 guests debating the T2 tax confiscation.

We had Toronto Star reporters saying it was a bad Idea.

But one Dude, Jerry Dias head of Unions was all for punishing risk takers. He was actually my shop stewerd back in the rivits bucking days at Dehaviand aircraft. Uaw 112 He was hard core communist back then and judging by his opinions he is still a commie. And he has T2s ears.

Wake up DM your stock options are next. What is wrong with our bankers backing communists sympthizer PM

Oh these union leaders, they retire in luxury without ever making a bet. That’s unfair.. My wife’s cousin recently died lived in the Plaice Pier. Big union boss

#69 OttawaMike on 09.24.17 at 7:26 pm

31 degrees on the upper Ottawa River today.

Ĺorrie Goldstein and all the other climate change deniers: crickets.

Watch nat gas futures: lots of gas fired turbines running to keep the ACs running all through N.America.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.17 at 7:27 pm

@#2 paracho
“It is the clam before the storm….”
++++++

Tis the calm clam that chuckles at challenges

#71 Bottoms_Up on 09.24.17 at 7:29 pm

#34 maka on 09.24.17 at 5:50 pm
——————————–
Federal and provincial debt is about 1.3 trillion. GDP is about 2 triilion. So Canadian debt-to-GDP ratio is well under 100%.

#72 M on 09.24.17 at 7:29 pm

Jannet blinked. No rate hike. Most likely none in December either.
Or…if yes…no garbage from their balance sheets will get sold. It’s either or.
In the end it doesn’t matter. It’s all a hole in the ground and all these people buying crap …are already dead meat.
Roadkill.

#73 Gravy Train on 09.24.17 at 7:31 pm

That’s a family establishment. Reprobates are not allowed. — Garth

#36 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 5:57 pm

“Had to google [the word] reprobate.”

Garth was being tactful and polite. He really meant to use the word degenerate. Sorry, you’ll need to look that word up, too. :)

#74 Nic on 09.24.17 at 7:33 pm

Been reading this blog for over 5 years. I thought the lower mainland prices were insane then. We have friends in washington state that haf their house go down by half so scared the pants of me FTB. I was dead wrong. Should have bought then..it has more than DOUBLED and we are priced out. Rental market sucks if you have pets. I dont see the party ending…plently of reasons why it should..but its been sooooo long defying all reason that I just dont see it anymore. Time to move

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.17 at 7:34 pm

@#16 No country for old capitalist men ……or women.

Go check the bathroom vanity . Today is Sunday. Check the bubble wrap pill dispensery from the Pharmacy.
U Forgot to take your meds again.

#76 Ian on 09.24.17 at 7:35 pm

Inventory for GTA on Zolo is on the rise again since the start of September. No chance this is a recovery. Especially since the BoC rise was unexpected.

Was VERY interesting to see someone post that two of the banks are acting like OSFI B-20 is already in.

Much like Happy Housing I noticed way more for sale signs as I was driving around this weekend. A number of them were in clusters, like someone (an agent?) had bought like five on one block or something and was looking to unload in a hurry. Anyway just anecdotal of course but was intersting to see more for sale signs.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.17 at 7:39 pm

@#37 Noname2

Amazon in Toronto? AND they have TIFF? It would make Torontonians even more insufferable than they already are…….

Boston is my prediction.

#78 Lie, deny, and eat pie on 09.24.17 at 7:41 pm

DELETED

#79 Tony on 09.24.17 at 7:43 pm

I see no interest rate increases coming out of America for the remainder of this year and next year. I put the odds at 50/50 for one more Canadian interest rate hike this year. That will be the end of interest rate hikes in Canada for this year and next year. This is assuming Trump doesn’t bring in endless helicopter money in America. The big question is will the OSFI stress test come to pass or not? I gave Ian the green light in Peterborough and Orillia about one week ago. The OSFI stress test of course won’t affect wealthy speculators which are the only ones driving the residential real estate market.

#80 Ian on 09.24.17 at 7:45 pm

#63 Stone

But what is the plan for an equity bear market? We have a US market that is on an eight year bull run, with valuations through the roof. So what happens to a passive equity / fixed income portfolio? Rates keep rising so fixed income sucks, and the equity market could fall apart any time. If both parts of the balanced portfolio are getting hurt, I am still not seeing how balance helps here.

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.17 at 7:46 pm

@#43 Fast Fingers Freddy
“Today, my daughter sold an identical unit next door to the one I sold for over asking and for 25% more than I got…”
++++++

Apparently your reading and comprehension skills are worse than your grammar….if thats possible.

You and your daughter SOLD “units”?
Which one would assume means they are condos?
Not single family dwellings?
Isnt that what has been discussed here on the blog for months?
Condos are the last gasp of the “Dead Cat bounce”….. since that’s all the greaterfools/ aka Totally Screwed Millenials who are foolish enough to still buy can qualify for?

Which begs a few more questions……

If the market is so great. Why did YOU and you daughter SELL?
Shouldnt you be BUYING oh great and wise real estate mogul?
Or should I call you Devil’s Advocate?

#82 young & foolish on 09.24.17 at 7:48 pm

I agree … lower debt is definitely best going forward :)

#83 Tony on 09.24.17 at 7:52 pm

Re: #50 Geena McDudley on 09.24.17 at 6:29 pm

Go long the Aussie dollar and short the American dollar or short the American dollar against the Aussie dollar. I see the Bank of Canada selling a lot of Canadian dollars above the 80 cent U.S. mark but not below the 80 cent U.S. mark.

#84 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 7:52 pm

Globalists words decoded.

Diversity, Inclusion, Fairness = Destroy nationalism, culture and tridition.

Climate Change = Slush fund for the take over.

Transgender = demasculation of boys, make then aggreable for the final take down. No Bruce Willis moves for you young men.

Renewable energy = accelerate the downfall of the middle class by sizING every last dime. Through inflated prices and making national mfg Imposable.

Education = Indictrnation to Cultral Marxism

#85 Herestoyou on 09.24.17 at 7:54 pm

Re: line up at new PcCo Townhouse development. Has everyone remembered that Christy Clark provided $35,000 I think it is – interest free for five years to any first time buyers that may be in that line up. Also I do believe on a new home you don’t have to pay transfer tax and I think if you’re a first time buyer you don’t have to pay transfer tax on any home if it is under $750,000. Combine all that with getting in at a low rate of interest and easy qualifying – no wonder they’re lining up to pay probably waaay more than the town houses are worth. Plus they may think with all this easy money there is probably a good chance of flipping it right away?

#86 Millenials on 09.24.17 at 7:57 pm

While we are seeing inflation starting to rise we are seeing zero signs of economic growth in the US. This is the onslaught of stagflation. It is readily apparent that there is no ACA repeal, no tax reform, and no Trump recovery.

#87 Deplorable Reprobates. on 09.24.17 at 7:59 pm

#81 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 7:52 pm

Globalists words decoded.

Diversity, Inclusion, Fairness = Destroy nationalism, culture and tridition.

Climate Change = Slush fund for the take over.

Transgender = demasculation of boys, make then aggreable for the final take down. No Bruce Willis moves for you young men.

Renewable energy = accelerate the downfall of the middle class by sizING every last dime. Through inflated prices and making national mfg Imposable.

Education = Indictrnation to Cultral Marxism
..
GET OFF MY LAWN.

#88 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.24.17 at 8:03 pm

#73 Crowdedelevatorfartz

They were townhouses. I sold mine cuz i got tired of going up and down stairs after my second heart attack. My daughter sold hers cuz she wanted some cash to pay down the mortgage on her house and buy into a small business.

#89 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 8:10 pm

#69 OttawaMike on 09.24.17 at 7:26 pm
31 degrees on the upper Ottawa River today.

Ĺorrie Goldstein and all the other climate change deniers: crickets.

Watch nat gas futures: lots of gas fired turbines running to keep the ACs running all through N.America.
…..

Well we sure as hell no its not expensive usless Wind Mills. CIimate change is real. It’s miniscule caused by the sun aND not Tree Food CO2.

And from what I hear. Me even saying that if T2 gets his way I’ll be in the slammer.

#90 OttawaMike on 09.24.17 at 8:17 pm

68 Smoking man
“But one Dude, Jerry Dias head of Unions was all for punishing risk takers. He was actually my shop stewerd back in the rivits bucking days at Dehaviand aircraft. Uaw 112 He was hard core communist back then and judging by his opinions he is still a commie. And he has T2s ears.”
———-

It’s UNIFOR now “The Union for Everybody!” sounds better than Canadian Auto Workers. To be fair we should be taxing their dues as well as the churches..

#91 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 8:21 pm

Too bad Smoking man did not record a ‘Parascope’ vid @ General Store.

That’s a family establishment. Reprobates are not allowed. — Garth
…..

1. tramp, scoundrel, wastrel, miscreant, wretch, rascal, cad, rogue.
2. outcast, pariah.
3. wicked, sinful, evil, corrupt.
5. reprehend, blame, rebuke, reprove.
…..

I take this as complementary.

#92 Stone on 09.24.17 at 8:22 pm

#80 Ian on 09.24.17 at 7:45 pm

#63 Stone

But what is the plan for an equity bear market? We have a US market that is on an eight year bull run, with valuations through the roof. So what happens to a passive equity / fixed income portfolio? Rates keep rising so fixed income sucks, and the equity market could fall apart any time. If both parts of the balanced portfolio are getting hurt, I am still not seeing how balance helps here.

————

You can do 20% short term bonds (VSB) which has had minmal downward swing so far with rising rates and 20% preferred shares (ZPR) which are on an upward swing. Should the markets tank dramatically (20-30%), rebalance. The fixed income is there as ballast, not growth. Then, be patient. My view is not weeks or months but a year or more. A major downturn is just a buying opportunity. Also, I continue to work in anticipation of a downturn so that I can continue to inject more money in to take advantage of the bargain basement prices. 2 years after a major downturn, if it goes like 2008-9 where you’re back in the black after 1 year on a balanced portfolio, I retire. *

Hope that helps.

* Always consult a financial advisor for financial advise though. I might be full of it – LOL

#93 Lost..but not leased on 09.24.17 at 8:22 pm

Amazon?

….is credited/blamed for contributing to the collapse of brick and mortar businesses.

….shopping around for new HQ is likely a publicity stunt..like the jobs they promote go with it.

Clearly they will avoid RE hotspots.ie they will not locate where their employees cannot afford to live…Detroit has been mentioned as a possibility.

Like NFL teams that shop for the best deals from host cities,Amazon will likely shop for the best tax breaks long term…then downsize the workforce it currently dangles in front of lathered up politicians.

Nothing new here…

#94 T on 09.24.17 at 8:29 pm

#62 NoName on 09.24.17 at 7:00 pm
@ T

if you look at map on that wiki you posted, i did came from green portion of map.

NoName
I’m not always right, but i am never wrong.

—-

Well fine for you to say. However in context you and the others commenting on how Canada is turning into a third world country have absolutely no clue what a third world country is. At least until you were educated with the link I provided.

There is no way Canada could ‘turn into a third world country’. What ‘world’ a country is in is about what side of the war a country was on. Highly unlikely Canada is going to change sides in a war long over.

Just stupid comments by stupid people.

Garth – maybe you should change the comments section up. The average iq of commenters is in a state of decline lately.

#95 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 8:30 pm

#90 OttawaMike on 09.24.17 at 8:17 pm
68 Smoking man
“But one Dude, Jerry Dias head of Unions was all for punishing risk takers. He was actually my shop stewerd back in the rivits bucking days at Dehaviand aircraft. Uaw 112 He was hard core communist back then and judging by his opinions he is still a commie. And he has T2s ears.”
———-

It’s UNIFOR now “The Union for Everybody!” sounds better than Canadian Auto Workers. To be fair we should be taxing their dues as well as the churches..
……

I was just as bad a commie as he was in my 20s we had those Cuban mercinary tee shirts. I grew out of it one day on strike, had to feed the family, became an Entrepreneur never looked back. Never even went back for my tool box after the strike was over. Was making too much money no time.

I still remember my tool tag number 40319

Have an amazing long turm memory. Trouble remembering stuff that happens between 10 pm and midnight.

#96 Perspective on 09.24.17 at 8:35 pm

I spent today at Coquitlam open houses. Our focus is $1.5 – $2.5 million. By the sign in sheer each open house was getting 8 – 10 visits over the 2 hour period. About 1/2 of them had been reduced or the agent told us they would be reduced next week. The cars that folks arrived in were mostly mid range SUVs, and the folks were dressed downscale. Gone were the $100,000 SUVs and Gucci shoes from a year ago. Also the crowd tended to be older. There are a lot of new build houses that will have a +$2.0 million dollar price point that will be completed shortly. Unless China turns the money on again there is going to be a lot of folks hurt. Also, one builder was particularly upset about the tax changes being proposed. I didn’t press him on it, but I am pretty sure I know why.

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.17 at 8:37 pm

@#88(lucky number) Four Fingers Watson.

Second heart attack? Yikes!
Hopefully you have good doctors.
Excellent time to sell. Time to enjoy some of that money brudda…..seriously…..

Townhouses eh? similar in style and cost to Condos.
PoTayto PoTahto.

Are single Family Houses selling for 25% more than last year? Or just “affordable” places like that?

#98 T on 09.24.17 at 8:39 pm

#86 Millenials on 09.24.17 at 7:57 pm
While we are seeing inflation starting to rise we are seeing zero signs of economic growth in the US. This is the onslaught of stagflation. It is readily apparent that there is no ACA repeal, no tax reform, and no Trump recovery.

——

Looks like screwed millenial posts under a few different names. You can tell as millennial is spelt incorrectly.

Hilarious! High effort trolling.

A lot of economic growth in the US lately. A lot of investment in new and old technology. But I wouldn’t expect a troll to know or care.

#99 NoName on 09.24.17 at 8:49 pm

#90 OttawaMike on 09.24.17 at 8:17 pm

and non profits to, funy those institutions are.

#100 For those about to flop... on 09.24.17 at 8:49 pm

pm
#62 NoName on 09.24.17 at 7:00 pm
@ T

if you look at map on that wiki you posted, i did came from green portion of map.

NoName
I’m not always right, but i am never wrong.

—-

Well fine for you to say. However in context you and the others commenting on how Canada is turning into a third world country have absolutely no clue what a third world country is. At least until you were educated with the link I provided.

There is no way Canada could ‘turn into a third world country’. What ‘world’ a country is in is about what side of the war a country was on. Highly unlikely Canada is going to change sides in a war long over.

Just stupid comments by stupid people.

Garth – maybe you should change the comments section up. The average iq of commenters is in a state of decline lately.

/////////////////////////

Hey T , go easy on the guy at least he has lived in different places and is as entitled to make comparisons as well as anyone on here.

NoName does not let his language difficulties stop him from being a contributing member to Canadian society and an enthusiastic member of this blog.

There are people on here that are constantly pooping on Canada and this guy ain’t one of them.

He chooses to raise his family here and appears to be working hard with his wife towards a self sufficient retirement.

Third world means different things to different people as far as I can tell.

Anyway ,dunno what else to say and not really interested in getting into it with anyone but I thought NoName was getting the rough end of the pineapple…

M43BC

#101 Asterix1 on 09.24.17 at 8:57 pm

You really need to be crazy (uninformed) to be purchasing a condo in the GTA at the present time. It’s the next segment to go down, and down it will go, and hard!

Prices are bound to pick up as idiots jump in the market before more interest rates are passed. Those buying are also probably unaware of B20 legislation.

Sure looks like a dead cat bounce!

#102 dudestolemysandwich on 09.24.17 at 9:05 pm

You guys at best are pathethic. Sane people don’t live in Canada. Indeed is a third world country sugar coated. Paying a mil for a house you suppose to keep the cow inside is insane.

#103 Oakville sucks! on 09.24.17 at 9:07 pm

North KOrea is a non-issue. America can shoot down their missles in about a minute after launch with the Star Wars missle defense system first introduced by president Reagan.

The lasers and secret weapons available would be over even before fake news CNN can report on it

#104 young & foolish on 09.24.17 at 9:10 pm

A couple of commentators brought up the issue of enormous, seemingly unpayable debts, and accompanying underfunded government liabilities. So, are we expecting inflation around the corner? What will happen to asset values? How can we expect a “return to the mean” in such an environment?

#105 T on 09.24.17 at 9:11 pm

#100 For those about to flop… on 09.24.17 at 8:49 pm

Understood. Thanks for that.

My apologies NoName.

No excuse for the others however.

#106 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.24.17 at 9:13 pm

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz

There are lots of townhouses in the 4-500k range in Kelowna. And lots of 1million plus homes as well. I’m not sure if single family homes have gone up 25% but i will say that from what i have seen they have not dropped in price at all. One of my sons in law is a property manager here in Kelowna who manages properties for absentee owners and that is what i am hearing from him.

#107 mathman on 09.24.17 at 9:16 pm

What I observe in the west end of Toronto is nothing is moving > $1 Mil. People are either tapped out, their parents are tapped out and or the banks have shut the taps. Either way, everyone is tapped.

One day people wake up from the madness and ask questions like how did anyone ever think a 100 year old house, with no parking that has not been renovated since the last time the leafs won the cup was worth $1.2 Million?

Prices are a function of access to capital – by all indication this is drying up fast. The knock on effects will be profound.

Real Estate agent packs it in – no more dinners, Audi, advertising etc.

Restaurants, Car dealerships, Print media – dead.

This is only the beginning of what I fear is a great unwind. There are no free lunches in this world, apparently house horny Canadian’s didn’t get that memo.

Math

#108 mathman on 09.24.17 at 9:23 pm

the major issue over the last 5 years is their has been no risk adjusted pricing of credit.

You could be a deadbeat, 0 downpayment and 0 assets – and as long as you had a visible means of employment you got the same rate as the man or woman who is very responsible, pristine credit etc.

In the investment world, or the bond market in particular this is not how capital is pricing – for a very specific reason.

Cue the HBS case on the Canadian housing market – to be used for decades in terms of what not to do.

Math

#109 NoName on 09.24.17 at 9:23 pm

#94 T on 09.24.17 at 8:29 pm
#62 NoName on 09.24.17 at 7:00 pm
@ T

if you look at map on that wiki you posted, i did came from green portion of map.

NoName
I’m not always right, but i am never wrong.

—-

Well fine for you to say. However in context you and the others commenting on how Canada is turning into a third world country have absolutely no clue what a third world country is. At least until you were educated with the link I provided.

There is no way Canada could ‘turn into a third world country’. What ‘world’ a country is in is about what side of the war a country was on. Highly unlikely Canada is going to change sides in a war long over.

Just stupid comments by stupid people.

Garth – maybe you should change the comments section up. The average iq of commenters is in a state of decline lately.

—-

nothing is wrong with iq in comment section here. If you find my comments stupid you can just ignore them, i am ok with that.

but if you are interest about non-aligned countries i can write you thing or two, what i remember from my communist doctrine class in grade school.
lets see what i remember. Funny i grade 4 i score best on my class on that topic… Test was once a year. One year I remember dude beside me (Djordge) answer a question wrong i cant type QandA it it will be taken out of contest, parents were called in school to explain, not just his but mine to, and i had correct answer. This a true, me age 10. But back to “Nesvrstane zemlje”
Beginning dont remember.
Tri main players, Jougoslavia, India i Egipat
Tito, Naser i Nehru, that what wiki called initiative of 5 is wrong, that wasnt in my history books.

No worris its just my bad haircut, odd joke telling that confuses a people.

Knock, Knock
Who, is there?
3rd world country.
3rd world country, who?
One with good economy.

#110 Where's The Money Guido? on 09.24.17 at 9:26 pm

#233 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.17 at 2:39 pm
@#230 Lost

“The only rational is that he is part of some global cabal whose agenda was to set each nation up for a synchronized economic collapse….”

Exactly, hence the Morneau turnaround right after coming back from Bilderberg this summer. It’s in the PLAN, don’t you see…..
http://www.bilderbergmeetings.org/participants.html
Better have your stash of bullets dug up for the party because they’re coming for us.

#111 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 9:37 pm

#110 Where’s The Money Guido? on 09.24.17 at 9:26 pm
#233 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.17 at 2:39 pm
@#230 Lost

“The only rational is that he is part of some global cabal whose agenda was to set each nation up for a synchronized economic collapse….”

Exactly, hence the Morneau turnaround right after coming back from Bilderberg this summer. It’s in the PLAN, don’t you see…..
http://www.bilderbergmeetings.org/participants.html
Better have your stash of bullets dug up for the party because they’re coming for us.
……

When Poloz did the 180 after Billy boy came back. I took a huge hit it on my range bound USDCAD I was trading for about a year. I reverse and made up my losses fast.

I had to call in a liquidate trades because Irma destroyed my infrastructure. Still up huge.
And still waiting for my proxy servers to come back on line. You listening CRA

I know Soros is betting on the destruction of Canada. And it’s dollar T2 is really bad at projecting.

There’s forrune to be had. Timing is everything.

#112 Pete from St. Cesaire on 09.24.17 at 9:37 pm

North KOrea is a non-issue. America can shoot down their missles in about a minute after launch with the Star Wars missle defense system first introduced by president Reagan. The lasers and secret weapons available would be over even before fake news CNN can report on it
———————————————————–
Just what the Chinese and Russians want. A demonstration of just what the US has up there to stop ICBM’s.

Next: Concerning 3rd world. That idea is constantly changing.
Actually the planet is divided into 5 worlds. Some guidelines:
1st: USA, U.K., Finland, Switzerland, etc
2nd: Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Greece, etc.
3rd: Brazil, Mexico, Belize, Tonga, etc.
4th: India, Turkmenistan, Cuba, etc.
5th: Haiti, Bangladesh, etc.

#113 T on 09.24.17 at 9:38 pm

#109 NoName on 09.24.17 at 9:23 pm

I lumped your comments in with others. I do apologize. You obviously have vast experience around third world countries.

Canada turning into a third world country is something to have heard a lot lately. It’s become a pet peeve of mine.

To say Canada may have economic headwinds is fine, as that is always a possibility. But to say we are going to change sides in a war long over is just silly and shows a lack of intelligence – or at least understanding.

#114 Dee on 09.24.17 at 9:38 pm

Trying to use my eyes and ears more this go around. Not letting emotions get in the way. I dont see a rally in the gta. Ive noticed quite a bit more listings the past week. Yup, a bit more sales than in the summer but not close to absorbing supply. Ive seen some pretty steep price drops too. Who knows. I figured out im the moron regardless

#115 AceGoodheart You're a lie on 09.24.17 at 9:39 pm

Ace Goodheart looks like a shyster agent! Show us the listing you’re talking about.

#116 I thinks I know something on 09.24.17 at 9:42 pm

GTA RE prices will continue to climb in the coming years. Not at a 30% rate, but they will climb. Ten years from now, prices will be double what they are today. Why? Massive immigration and continued low interest rates. Anyone believing that rates will climb should have their heads examined by a qualified RE psychiatrist.

#117 NoName on 09.24.17 at 9:42 pm

People from Australia are awesome!
This is a proof.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfXw2tPaNZU

#118 Leo Trollstoy on 09.24.17 at 9:45 pm

Looks like the US Fed is on track for four interest rate increases in 12 months with an expected December pop. The Bank of Canada will have one more (at least) this year, for a tripling of its benchmark in 2017.

Bingo!

BoC to jack rates. The Fed to jack rates.

Economies are strong.

Deflation never was.

Inflation healthy.

What’s not to love? Canada rocks!

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canada-s-annual-inflation-rate-rose-to-1-4-per-cent-in-august-1.3601310

#119 I thinks I know something on 09.24.17 at 9:47 pm

“That’s easy. Wait. Buying six months from now after the above takes effect will likely result in a lower price.” – Garth

——————————————————

That is really terrible advice. The waiting strategy has not worked the last eight years. Why should it work in the future? Fundamentals? The fact is fundamentals don’t count anymore.

#120 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 9:47 pm

So here I sit in my sons apartment no AC by the way. Got like 1000 bucks in my bank account.

We need to update a few definitions of Reprobates.

My son and I had a conversation, his point of view. To succeed in life. Everyone has to eat shit no matter who you are. The better it tastes in your mouth the higher you get up the ladder.

I personally would rather be a splat at the bottom of the latter than ever put a piece of that shit in my mouth.

My destiny.

#121 Lost...but not leased on 09.24.17 at 9:56 pm

Gov’t pensions ie Civil Servants…the elephant in the room/other shoe to drop?

Perhaps Mssrs Turdeau and Moroneau agenda ?

One only has to do some research re: pensions south of the border. 401K’s have turned into a disaster, and that’s just the private sector.

Bigger states like Illinois and their economic viability are into Junk Bond territory…..realizing the unfunded liabilities grow and they cannot support Gov’t employee pensions which tend to be far more generous than private sector.

Unfortunately, these public sector unions have infiltrated to the point of being a quasi- gov’t. Thus..the average Canadian is caught between a rock and a hard place..a Gov’t that has sold its sovereignty to foreigners..and yet taxes these same Canadians to support an over- indulged civil service that can retire @ 55 with a pension based on their best 5 earning years.

Sorry…..not sustainable…an unacknowledged class warfare. Time for some sharpened pencils and/ or pink slips.

#122 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 9:59 pm

DELETED

#123 Lost...but not leased on 09.24.17 at 10:10 pm

Pro Athletes ie NFL players as SJW’s

ROTFLMAO re: these kneeling protests by these over indulged millionaires.

They have benefitted from a marketed culture that places them on a pedestal .yet now they want to act as societies conscience.?!? (..geez this is as bad as Civil Servants.)

Their job description is effectively “entertainment”…if I want some sort of sermon..I know where those are held most Sundays.

#124 AMZN on 09.24.17 at 10:19 pm

#37
Seriously? In a region of 6 million people? Dreamer. — Garth

Weren’t there 6K sales last month in TO?
Then 50K well paid newcomers will eat up a lot of inventory

That’s funny. Like they’ll all be immigrants without places to live already. — Garth

#125 AMZN on 09.24.17 at 10:25 pm

#34 maka

Italy’s GDP is in the trillions, not in the billions.
$138B number is far too low.

#126 Rentin on 09.24.17 at 10:37 pm

I think everyone including Garth needs to remember that the only thing that dictates prices is supply/demand.

I think the dangerous market are the condos right now, as small down payments and rising interest rates will knock out first timers, creating supply through foreclosures and demand being cut.

On the SFH and rural acreages, which are also exempt from the foreign buyers tax, prices have nearly doubled in the last 2 years. Now listings sit, for 6 months or more and then disappear without reduction.

Calling the market based on interest rates only works on highly leveraged purchases.

But in both cases above, the investment is very likely to become illiquid for the short term; 5 or 10 years….

For those with much time on their hands, it would be interesting to see what an investment portfolio would have returned from 1971 to 1979. RE went up 600 percent.

#127 S.Bby on 09.24.17 at 10:39 pm

The $75,000 Edmonton parking stall

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/75-000-edmonton-parking-stall-condo-1.4303811

When will this insanity end?

#128 Willy H on 09.24.17 at 10:42 pm

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.17 at 7:39 pm

@#37 Noname2

Amazon in Toronto? AND they have TIFF? It would make Torontonians even more insufferable than they already are…….

Boston is my prediction.
__ __ __ __

Agree, T.O. is among the most traffic congested cities in North America with no sign of any improvement in the near future. In fact, it going to get much worse in the GTA as vertical density increases as condos and office towers are popping up everywhere.

Doesn’t help that real estate is over-valued versus other potential locations. Higher real estate values simply translate into the worker demand for higher salaries to cover the cost of living in this soulless urban hellscape.

T.O. is 30-50 years behind most European and American cities of the same size in terms of public transit. Not nearly enough investments have been made.

It only took 20 years to get a direct rail link running between Union Station and Pearson Int. Airport – LOL

Yet somehow T.O. manages to be rated as one of the best places to live in the world for quality of life? Flawed methodology anyone?

#129 Souvereigninternational on 09.24.17 at 10:47 pm

There were steps on the way up, there are steps on the way down.Simple. If you want an elevator you need electricity, a spark that would be a catalyst of speedy unwind of this RE market. Let’s not expect that this is going to take months when it was 20 years in the making. Especially in real estate, the sellers are chasing the market down and are always late with their assessment.

#130 BillyBob on 09.24.17 at 10:49 pm

#47 T on 09.24.17 at 6:15 pm
#14 Stan Broock on 09.24.17 at 3:57 pm
#38 NoName on 9.24.17 at 6:03 pm

Do you even know what third world country means?

It has NOTHING to do with economy.

The ignorance of commenters on this blog amazes me sometimes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_World

===================================

It would seem that it “takes one to know one”.

“Third World” has long been a derogatory stereotype for poorer countries. Even your linked page states as much.

As far as claiming that Canada is nothing like those poor, poor countries a few claim to know so much about, I say – nonsense. Yes, Canada may have a higher overall standard of living than many other places. But the mentality in Canada is far more “third world” than most of the actual third world places I’ve ever been. Perhaps its the relative ease of life that’s bred this entitlement and complacency, I don’t know. But having a Filipino girlfriend doesn’t make you an expert on “Third World” issues, MF.

I’ve lived and traveled in a lot (most?) of the countries that would be considered “Third World”. And I’ve almost always been struck at just how vibrant and thriving most actually are. I’m not talking about areas where basic human needs like water and sanitation are absent, the kind flogged on “poverty-porn” infomercials asking for 38 cents a day. I’m talking about places where the basics are in place and there is an actual populace of citizens that work hard, barter, trade and set up small businesses to sell goods and services to each other. In short live life, without much money and granite/stainless perhaps, but without much worries either. I’ve been to many, in Asia, Africa, South America. And no, they’re not all clamouring to come to Canada – that is one of our most bs self-flattering deceits, constantly promulgated by Canadian politicians. They have COMMUNITY, and they’re actually pretty happy for the most part.

Contrast that with Canada and our cynical virtue-signalling shallow PM. People fretting constantly over whether their POS bungalow is “worth” 1.1 or 1.2 million. Constantly looking left and right to check if their neighbour is doing better than them. But dare to suggest that even much poorer countries may have happy people in them and they trot out whatever study says Canada is the best place to live as some kind of proof of well, something.

I can’t pinpoint the exact moment when pride went from being a deadly sin, to a virtue. But Trudeau is EXACTLY the right PM for Canada – proud, arrogant, and completely unaware. He IS Canada at this point in history.

#131 Nonplused on 09.24.17 at 11:02 pm

Garth, who on earth would bother with a 500 sqft garage? I mean you are talking 25×20. How are you going to fit 2 cars, a Harley, a 4 wheeler, 4 pairs of skis, 2 bikes, a canoe, a whole bunch of old computers, a tool chest and a work bench, all those bottles of WD-40 to One Shot, plus of course the man cave sofa, TV, and beer fridge in 25×20? You can’t do it. In my garage the man cave portion takes up 200 sqft.

Heck, with the slide out my camping trailer is 250 sqft and it’s not large for a trailer. I paid $32,000 for it brand new with the solar panel and rear hitch (it’s a fifth so I can tow small trailers behind it, mostly use the receiver for a bike rack though). And I can move it where I want to go. So by comparison, a 500 sqft condo should cost about $64,000 plus $70,000 for the truck you need so $154,000 all in and you also have a truck you can drive where you need to go. If you are paying more than that and don’t get a pretty cool truck with air conditioning, power windows, a sun roof, and blue tooth included you are doing it wrong.

On a more serious note I just don’t understand why the millennials want to buy. In my opinion, it does not make sense to own the house you live in until you are doing the married-with-children thing. Once you can’t move anyway because your spouse won’t let you, maybe it makes sense to own and renovate to your personal tastes. But young, single people should be free to follow the wind wherever it might take them. Better job in California? Pack up the U-Haul. Time to back-pack around Europe? Sell the sofa and kitchen table and check the travel advisories. Ski season in Vail? You don’t need anything but a duffel bag of clothes and your skis. It just doesn’t make any sense for the young folks to be buying a house before they’ve settled on a career and a family.

My sister’s new husband is a great example. Since my sister already had a house from a previous marriage and help from my helicopter parents, he has to sell his condo. Well I don’t think he’s sold it yet, but it looks like he’s taking a $40,000 haircut. Not wanting to do that he tried renting it out but of course the tenants thrashed the place twice so sure insurance covered some of that but it was more work and more money in.

Now, I don’t really feel too sorry for him, I think I’ve lost $40,000 on my truck just on depreciation since I bought it. $40,000 sounds like a lot of money, especially after tax, but it’s just what stuff costs these days.

I’m not selling my truck or trading it in. Even if it rusts out eventually it will still basically be a functioning truck. But my point is when you buy a condo, and you take a loss, well it isn’t much different than say buying a BMW or any other car. You’ll never sell it for what you paid for it. That’s what you signed up for. You can’t make money owning a condo and renting it out or the people who make condos wouldn’t sell them, they’d rent them out.

So to try and simplify that: If the guy who built the condo wants to sell it rather than rent it out, there is more money in building than renting and he knows that. You, as a new condo landlord, will make a lower rate of return than the guy who built it and sold it. If he could have made all kinds of money renting it out, he wouldn’t have sold.

This is the simple logic folks: If there were money to be made owning condos and renting them out, the people who build condos wouldn’t sell them they would rent them out. They sell them. Why? There is more money to be made building condos and then selling them on to fools who think they can make money renting them out than there is to be made building them to rent. Somebody is being a sucker. It’s the guy who buys the condo.

#132 John in Mtl on 09.24.17 at 11:11 pm

Hi Garth,

You know what is the best part of your blog that I enjoyed tonight? The DOG picture! This Topher guy is great -;) Thank You for posting and promoting this kool artist!

Back to regular programming… RE, ugh!

#133 NoName on 09.24.17 at 11:16 pm

@ T

To say Canada may have economic headwinds is fine, as that is always a possibility. But to say we are going to change sides in a war long over is just silly and shows a lack of intelligence – or at least understanding.

I don’t understand part in bold, but i concur in lack of intelligence part.

#134 N on 09.24.17 at 11:27 pm

Interesting read….

Most real individuals have income tax collected at source on their gross earnings, regardless of what it cost them to earn those revenues. Most wage earners never see their gross revenue; tax is collected off the top, automatically.

Corporations are treated much differently. First, they don’t pay income tax on their gross earnings; they pay only on their profits. Profits are the money corporations have left after they’ve deducted all costs (fixed and variable) incurred in generating gross revenue. Truth be told, company profits are usually a small fraction of their gross earnings.

Consider Amazon, the online retailer that’s gobbling up vast tracts of taxpaying bricks and mortar retail businesses. In just the bookstore side of their business in Britain, the tax they pay on their gross sales is 11 times smaller than what might have been collected had the same books been sold through traditional high street book stores.

Apple, another digital powerhouse, centralizes much of its global business in Ireland. The company paid tax in Ireland of only 0.005 per cent in 2014, far below the (already low) Irish corporation tax rate of 12.5 per cent.

Governments understandably want to encourage economic growth. But the ability of corporations to enjoy the rights and privileges of individuals and yet evade their responsibilities has reached the crisis point.

The growing indebtedness of governments is a consequence of corporations avoiding paying their fair share. Income tax is an industrial-era institution that (in its present form) won’t survive globalization and the digital revolution.
The government of Canada has opened a Pandora’s Box with its poorly-designed tax reform agenda. Clearly, there’s a structural flaw in income tax. But the real debate must extend a long way from the present assault on small business owners to a rethink on the whole question of taxation in the post-industrial world.
http://troymedia.com/2017/09/24/its-time-we-target-the-real-tax-avoiders-corporations/

#135 Long-Time Lurker on 09.24.17 at 11:50 pm

#98 T on 09.24.17 at 8:39 pm
#86 Millenials on 09.24.17 at 7:57 pm

While we are seeing inflation starting to rise we are seeing zero signs of economic growth in the US. This is the onslaught of stagflation. It is readily apparent that there is no ACA repeal, no tax reform, and no Trump recovery.

——

Looks like screwed millenial posts under a few different names. You can tell as millennial is spelt incorrectly.

Hilarious! High effort trolling.

If SSCM changes his attitude and his handle it’ll be good for him.

Read this SSCM:

#95 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 8:30 pm

I was just as bad a commie as he was in my 20s we had those Cuban mercinary tee shirts. I grew out of it one day on strike, had to feed the family, became an Entrepreneur never looked back. Never even went back for my tool box after the strike was over. Was making too much money no time.

Re: Dotard-Rocketman

At least I got a good laugh before we nuked ourselves back to the stone age. Trash-talking world leaders. What’s next? Inequality protesting pro-sports multi-millionaires?

#136 M on 09.24.17 at 11:58 pm

@84 Smoking Man

I’m all with you on that one bro.
If they’ll lock us up we’ll be two in the zoo with the babes flocking.
Gartho’s all lost to the doggie world. No competition.

:)

#137 Bob Dog on 09.25.17 at 12:15 am

https://thinkpol.ca/2017/09/23/vancouver-developer-pre-sells-condos-for-cheaper-than-in-canada-at-hong-kong-fair-and-boasts-of-pricing-ordinary-canadians-out-of-the-housing-market/

Obligatory post. May be redundant.

How can any young Canadian see the corrupt puppet government as anything other than a domestic terrorist organization.

https://thinkpol.ca/2017/09/23/vancouver-developer-pre-sells-condos-for-cheaper-than-in-canada-at-hong-kong-fair-and-boasts-of-pricing-ordinary-canadians-out-of-the-housing-market/

https://thinkpol.ca/2017/09/23/vancouver-developer-pre-sells-condos-for-cheaper-than-in-canada-at-hong-kong-fair-and-boasts-of-pricing-ordinary-canadians-out-of-the-housing-market/

#138 Tony on 09.25.17 at 12:21 am

Re: #127 S.Bby on 09.24.17 at 10:39 pm

That parking spot will be worth less than $500 as everyone is leaving the entire province of Alberta.

#139 Where's The Money Guido? on 09.25.17 at 12:49 am

Re: #257 45north on 09.23.17 at 9:22 pm
Home Capital Group:

According to a source, subsequent spot checks discovered that a significant proportion of applications coming from the Accelerator unit were missing information.

Eventually, the individual in the risk department escalated their concerns to the board, the source said.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/inside-the-rise-and-fall-of-home-capital

So now you have everyone from the OSC to OSFI calling it fraud, yet people just lose their job and nobody gets charged criminally.
Well that’s criminal in my eyes.
Now what does Warren Buffett, Mr. up and up, think about this?
Why would he, being such a good person, want to have anything to do with these criminals?
Like I said, all in the PLAN!

#140 Tony on 09.25.17 at 12:50 am

Re: #71 Bottoms_Up on 09.24.17 at 7:29 pm

Zero Hedge pegged it at 106 percent (recent) if I remember correctly.

#141 I thinks I know something on 09.25.17 at 1:06 am

#34 maka on 09.24.17 at 5:50 pm

Canada’s situation may be worse than the list indicates because it only takes into account public debt. Italy and Japan for instance have low private debt whereas Canada (as we all know) has high private debt.

#142 Ronaldo on 09.25.17 at 1:23 am

#131 Nonpulsed

”There is more money to be made building condos and then selling them on to fools who think they can make money renting them out than there is to be made building them to rent. Somebody is being a sucker. It’s the guy who buys the condo.”
—————————————————————–
Exactly. Condo’s came to be because of rent controls. Developers said, ‘fine and dandy Mr. Government, we’ll convert those rental suites into condos and sell them off and pass on all the problems and expenses associated with these things over to the buyers since there is no longer money to be had in building rental units.’
And that’s just what they did. Now, all of a sudden there is a shortage of rental units so the government has to go into the business of building rental apartments. Hence, BCHDC (BC Housing Development Corp.) Condos were the cheap alternative to rental suites. Now, looks what’s happened. Housing has become unaffordable for those that need it most. Builders are making profits coming out their ying yang and moistures are buying these up like there is no tomorrow driving the prices into the stratosphere. Suckers to be sure. The developers are laughing all the way to the bank. And guess who is subsidizing the units the government have built. Yep, we are. Why their called subsidized housing.

#143 T on 09.25.17 at 1:24 am

#130 BillyBob on 09.24.17 at 10:49 pm
#47 T on 09.24.17 at 6:15 pm
#14 Stan Broock on 09.24.17 at 3:57 pm
#38 NoName on 9.24.17 at 6:03 pm

Do you even know what third world country means?

It has NOTHING to do with economy.

The ignorance of commenters on this blog amazes me sometimes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_World

===================================

It would seem that it “takes one to know one”.

“Third World” has long been a derogatory stereotype for poorer countries. Even your linked page states as much.

—–

Yea, I’m correcting the use of the derogatory term. Thanks for that Captain Obvious.

#144 T on 09.25.17 at 1:29 am

#133 NoName on 09.24.17 atThe “three worlds” of the

What ‘world’ a country is / was in refers to their alignment during the Cold War.

First World: United States, United Kingdom and their allies.
Second World: Soviet Union, China, and their allies.
Third World: neutral and non-aligned countries.

#145 Dolce Vita on 09.25.17 at 1:31 am

I’m with #24 Debtslavecreator and of course, Garth on B20.

Oct. 2016 stress test on insured mortgages decreased the number of new mortgages by 32% in Vancouver and decreased the mortgage amount by 7% by the 1st Qtr of 2017 – huge impact in just 1 Qtr.

All things being almost equal, uninsured mortgages will get whacked by B20 just as bad, probably worse, in La La Land.

Again, these assignment or speculator people will have fewer qualified buyers to sell to with less money to spend (a good thing) into an already dismal unit sales resale RE market there.

All things are not equal to Oct 2016 when B20 comes into effect. Rates are higher. RE Cult buying cheaper properties.

So on paper, you may be worth a lot…to find out, sell and monetize. Make sure you declare that capital gain or play Russian Roulette with CRA. In the past month, 1 Surrey dude not declaring capital gains got whacked with $130 K in fines, on top of paying taxes owed. They are in court getting owner lists from shyster developers as I type.

Nicely done CRA.

So, good luck with monetizing your paper wealth YVR. I would do it now and, declare that capital gain, “be a man, do the right thing”.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/fewer-smaller-mortgages-seen-in-vancouver-after-cooling-measures-enacted/article36049598/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

#146 Where's The Money Guido? on 09.25.17 at 1:57 am

Re:
#123 Lost..but not leased on 09.24.17 at 3:44 pm

Someone who gets it!!!!!
Bang On!

#147 Dolce Vita on 09.25.17 at 2:13 am

#51 Van City Man
#43 FOUR FINGERS WATSON

Lay off the bud and ‘shrooms.

Vancouver alone, in total $ sales, is down from May $1.4 Billion to end of August $693 MM, which ought to be about a 50% drop in $ commissions, on average.

And…

Surrey down from $878 MM to $343 MM,
Burnaby down from $381 MM to $242 MM,
Richmond down from $477 MM to $275 MM,
Coquitlam down from $285 MM to $163 MM,
Langley down from $310 MM to $161 MM…

Poor Realtors, literally and figuratively.

YVR RE Cult oblivious to these numbers since MSM there, in on the take as well.

Hear no evil. See no evil. Above numbers easily calculable from Zolo.ca.

Almost forgot, let us know how it’s going 1 Qtr 2018 after B20 & at least 1 more rate increase (Comment sans bud and ‘shrooms please).

#148 Dolce Vita on 09.25.17 at 2:32 am

Zolo.ca “Roaring Back” Vancouver Aug 24 to Sep 21, 2017 vs. 3 months ago (June 17), Total $ Sales:

$781.9 MM down from $954.4 MM, -18%.

Recall May peak was $1.4 Billion.

End of 2017 Prospects:

1 more rate increase at least, B20 resulting in fewer buyers with less $ to spend.

YVR RE Cult think: prices will really go up now.

More like a meow than a roar.

#149 I Do Not Love Canada on 09.25.17 at 2:58 am

Dan T, we also visited Canada recently. Victoria BC to be exact. Our takeaway is thank the Universe we live in the US. Victoria’s etting is cute and the town is cute enough, but what an absurdly lame experience overall. Everything felt like it was 10-15 years behind the times, and there was absolutely nothing to do there that we couldn’t get at our home in San Diego. Absolutely NOTHING. Some poor bastard at the hotel concierge desk even stated he ranked the Royal BC Museum only next to the Smithsonian, globally speaking. My wife and I were a little taken by this statement, so naturally we were excited to see it. Are you fucking kidding me? All we could do was shake our heads, smile, and giggle at one another as not to be rude in our take on a clearly misinformed and overly proud mass of individuals. The place was contrived, run down, and needs some real space for proper exhibits. It was a children’s museum at best. I know Americans have a reputation to come off as overly proud, but have Canadians any wherewithal whatsoever of their nationalistic, self righteous, misinformed, and misaligned importance on a global scale? It was laughable and almost cute in a completely obnoxious way. Americans place flags on a lot of things, you say? Look around, we both agreed we’ve never seen so many flags and country symbolism in our lives as we saw in Canada. Everything, and I mean almost everything we encountered had 1) the Canadian flag slapped on it 2) had a maple leaf on it 3) or, had the word “Canada” on it. Sad really. Sad to a point the locals can’t see what’s right in front of them. There is an obvious, myopic system at play that provides sense of security to its citizens that things are going well and are “okay,” when in fact it is a completely government-centric society, lacking understanding that much of their scope is hand fed to them by the very government they are serving. Conflict of interest amounting to an undeniable poor outcome in the long run.

#150 BillyBob on 09.25.17 at 3:48 am

The growing indebtedness of governments is a consequence of corporations avoiding paying their fair share.

====================================

No. At least, not in the simplistic way you put it.

The growing indebtedness of governments is a consequence of their willingness to spend far more than they collect in revenue.

Is there more revenue to be collected from corporations? Perhaps. But until governments and individuals lose the mindset that is is acceptable to spend far, far more than you earn, it won’t matter how much is collected. I have colleagues who earn far more than I do and are up to the eyeballs in debt. Just like governments everywhere, they have a spending problem, not an earning problem.

You choose to focus on the strategies corporations use to shield themselves from taxes rather than focusing on the massive taxes they DO pay directly and generate indirectly through job creation. It’s the same mentality directed at wealthy individuals when much is made of the supposedly lower rates they pay, while conveniently ignoring the (much larger than yours) TOTAL amount they pay. 20% of taxpayers pay 80% of the tax.

I could spot the rhetoric in an instant – as soon as someone starts using the word “fair”…run.

#151 When Will They Raise Rates? on 09.25.17 at 4:23 am

#22 MF on 09.24.17 at 4:44 pm

I get that this could be people rushing in to purchase before this “supposed” stress test, but I am still bullish on GTA housing. Demand is still high from what I can see.

Good friend just purchased a condo in Maple. Locked in before any “supposed” rate increases. She had been renting for a while and forking around 50% of her salary so someone else could benefit and decided no more. She is also newly engaged now.

Point is most millennials are still clamouring to buy. All my friends/family members who bought have made a killing on their purchase too.

That mentality isn’t going anywhere. Not from what I can see.

MF
————————–

Because bag holders are the last to figure it out.

#152 Dharma Bum on 09.25.17 at 7:04 am

I’m thinking of downsizing.

This cozy shack on a 50′ lot just might do. Oh…and what a bargain!!

https://www.rew.ca/properties/C3924086/110-bidewell-avenue-toronto-on

#153 I'm stupid on 09.25.17 at 7:04 am

#37 noname2

Amazon won’t choose Toronto, it doesn’t make sense to do so. Detroit will most likely be Amazons choice. Here’s my argument why:

-Realestate is dirt cheap
-Geographically it’s ideal for ground and air shipping to major hubs.
-they’ll get huge tax incentives because Michigan is struggling
– politically it a good move to win favour with Americans.

I could go on but you get the picture.

#154 Ace Goodheart on 09.25.17 at 7:09 am

“#115 AceGoodheart You’re a lie on 09.24.17 at 9:39 pm
Ace Goodheart looks like a shyster agent! Show us the listing you’re talking about.”

Can’t unfortunately it was taken down as it is sold. There is still no reliable method of getting a sold price unfortunately as they keep killing off all the good sold view sites.

#155 Asterix1 on 09.25.17 at 8:23 am

#116 I thinks I know something on 09.24.17 at 9:42 pm
GTA RE prices will continue to climb in the coming years. Not at a 30% rate, but they will climb. Ten years from now, prices will be double what they are today. Why? Massive immigration and continued low interest rates. Anyone believing that rates will climb should have their heads examined by a qualified RE psychiatrist.
____________________________________

Spoken like a true realtor!

#156 anc0dia on 09.25.17 at 8:32 am

#37 NoName 2 on 09.24.17 at 5:58 pm
While it is a black-swan type event, if Amazon ends up choosing Toronto for its second headquarter (which is not a 0 chance event at all), we can expect the RE Bonanza to come back and defy all expectations of a correction.

Why is that? Do warehouse robots need to by houses too?

#157 Complimentary on 09.25.17 at 8:32 am

#91 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 8:21 pm
Too bad Smoking man did not record a ‘Parascope’ vid @ General Store.

That’s a family establishment. Reprobates are not allowed. — Garth
…..

1. tramp, scoundrel, wastrel, miscreant, wretch, rascal, cad, rogue.
2. outcast, pariah.
3. wicked, sinful, evil, corrupt.
5. reprehend, blame, rebuke, reprove.
…..

I take this as complementary.

*******

I also had to google – I found:

1.an unprincipled person (often used humorously or affectionately).

I would say, complimentary.

#158 rainclouds on 09.25.17 at 8:40 am

149 Canada Hater ” Some poor bastard at the hotel concierge desk even stated he ranked the Royal BC Museum only next to the Smithsonian, globally speaking”

Ever hear of the internet? Would have saved you time. I would agree Victoria is not by any stretch interesting. And yes our sometimes puffed up (CBC/Politicians) self importance on the world stage is cringe worthy.

Similar thing happened when I visited SD. went to old town, then the art walk, then Normal Heights for the blues fest. feeble. La Jolla was nice. Gaslamp for a night is great. Zoo amazing. In my opinion SD is a place to see once.

What’s with the hand over the heart during the anthem?

Love visiting the States, in particular California, but to suggest some Americans aren’t blinded by their own national hubris would suggest you aren’t looking too closely.

Vancouver has had a record year for tourism, most of them Americans……….

#159 2 Cents Canadian on 09.25.17 at 8:41 am

Most People buy houses and cars based only on the monthly payment. Many people don’t even know what they paid for their car …. they just say it’s $349 a month. Interest rates go up … the price of item you can afford comes down. Sellers won’t want to lower their price (who does?) but eventually they will have to if they want to sell. Not that there aren’t tons of fools left who would still bury themselves up to their nostrils in debt if given the chance …. but the banks have (finally) turned the dial back on how much they will lend these idiots. Slow down everybody …. a house is a box you live in …. it’s not your life. But you can wreck your life if you pay too much for your box. Walk away from bidding wars …. nobody “wins” except the seller. Things WILL come down … relax and let it happen. The banks and government are now striving to do that.

#160 TurnerNation on 09.25.17 at 8:45 am

All the condo comments…that King’s club Toronto condo from failed developer Urbancorp, signees got their deposits returned is to be dedicated to rentals:

https://www.kingsclub.ca/

RENTS in Toronto exploded: just east of Spadina downtown are several new and very slick (modern by Kanadian standards) towers: Picasso, Tableau, Cinema Tower. (I’ve been in all three visiting friends, girls…)
A one bedroom rents for 2000+.
If you can find it. A year ago this was $1500-1600! So much for the rent controls.

https://toronto.craigslist.ca/tor/apa/d/the-prestigious-tableau/6311137801.html

https://www.kijiji.ca/v-1-bedroom-den-apartments-condos/city-of-toronto/lux-1-1-600-sq-ft-october-1-richmond-john/1300013882?

M41ON

#161 NoName on 09.25.17 at 8:51 am

#144 T on 09.25.17 at 1:29 am

#133 NoName on 09.24.17 atThe “three worlds” of the

What ‘world’ a country is / was in refers to their alignment during the Cold War.
First World: United States, United Kingdom and their allies.
Second World: Soviet Union, China, and their allies.
Third World: neutral and non-aligned countries.

I learn my English mainly from reading machine manuals and news papers and looking at picture on internet, up to last night absolutely noone correlate third world country with non-aliment countries. That was news for me.
Third worlds country was if i remember correct always rearing to under developed country, with high income inequility. Here are some recent news article from lets say “reputable” news websites, thet corelate 3rd world to powerty.

11 Sep 2017,
http://www.tenterfieldstar.com.au/story/4914540/putting-third-world-countries-in-focus/
SEP 24 2017
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/meet-millennial-transforming-black-wall-street-digital-era-n798736
September 25, 2017
http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/opinions/like-minded-dictatorships-and-the-united-nations/2017/09/25/

#162 Lee on 09.25.17 at 8:53 am

#155 Asterix1,

Where is this massive immigration? Canada will take in about 60,000 more people this year than last year when you include massive numbers of illegals. That is at most 20,000 families distributed around the country. The GTA will get about 5,000 of these families. They often live three families to a home since they don’t have money and find it hard to find jobs. So maybe, this will result in 2,000 extra homes in the GTA being sold each year if it keeps up. That’s about 160 a month divided among the various areas of the GTA. Big boost to sales.

#163 MF on 09.25.17 at 8:54 am

#130 BillyBob on 09.24.17 at 10:49 pm

I was born and grew up in the GTA. I have gone to school and worked alongside immigrants from all over the world my entire life. Not sure where you thought my gf was the first immigrant I’ve ever met?

Anyways,

Where to start with your post.

When people come to Canada they come for opportunities, yes, but most importantly for stability and acceptance.

When people mention first vs third world they are almost always referring to standard of living, something you just skimmed over like it was nothing.

People forming strong bonds is definitely not only something you see in “the third world”, but it is definitely more of a necessity and often means life or death. Ever heard the term “first world problems”? Us complaining about whether a house should be 1.1 or 1.2 mil is exactly that.

Our PM is garbage yes. But he will be gone in time. He does not represent all of Canada. Even a “world traveller” like yourself can admit people do not always support their current government’s position. Only 4/10 Canadians voted Liberal in the last election. Remember that when you come here to tell us all about how we all hate small businesses, want higher taxes, and follow the politics of envy.

one last thing. Do you have any children BillyBob?

I ask because jet setting and staying in fancy hotels in far off places may not represent what it means to actually lay down roots and start a life. Almost all my
Immigrants friends I grew up with are doing well. I say the proof is in the pudding.

MF

#164 TurnerNation on 09.25.17 at 8:58 am

Urbancorp, never let a crisis go to waste.
Reminds me their rental was featured in that one, single ‘news story’ which ushered rental contol laws into Ontario: that a poor young girl’s rent was to be doubled. Smells like a false flag.

Need we be reminded. One single story each time got us liquid bans and nude body scanners at airports. One single story, with pictures of a little boy planted on a beach overseas got our borders torn down. We all remember that one.

As I say how to herd and control 7 billion people, a few well placed collie dogs and cowboys nipping at our heels.

#165 Eks dee Sipal on 09.25.17 at 9:17 am

T… can I call you T the Prick? Did you even READ your own link, fool? Here, I’ll do it for you:

“In present-day English, the term ‘Third World’ is used in reference to “the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America”. The term usually suggests poverty and low level of industrial development and thus it is the opposite of the term developed nations. This usage is considered by some to be offensive.”

Modern English, T. Modern English. Get it? Besides, Wikipedia is a second-rate and often un-trust-worthy source of information. Caveat emptor.

#166 Eks dee Sipal on 09.25.17 at 9:23 am

#130 BillyBob… Do you ever unseat yourself from your politically partisan perch? What does the current PM of Canada have to do with insanely high house prices?

The Conservatives created this housing mess and left it for the Liberals, who introduced measures to deflate it. What part of this don’t you understand?

#167 Russell Gooding on 09.25.17 at 9:27 am

Toronto house prices likely already near bottom, says RBC economist Robert Hogue Sept 6 2017

My email to him…

Robbi my boy are you up on current events? The Canadian economy, like the US, like Europe, like Australia, etc., is going into the toilet. I have read many of your forecasts and recognize spin when I read it.

The banking industry, by in large, with their greed and stupidly to follow along and collapse interest rates, were as, the natural reaction of stupid people, is to borrow until the coffers are empty followed by… rate hikes, based on growing economy (total fiction) and then the Feds go on the hunt for taxes. Brilliant strategy to destroy what remains of a debt ridden tax payer.

You spin stories for your employer… reality is we are headed for a long retraction of prices, 5 plus years and may never recover to these highs based on the aforementioned reality. You and Bill Morneau must eat the same breakfast, one pushing and one pulling, to keep the train running a little longer. A complete moron can see what is coming and the outfall of monetary policy that is crippling this country.

Lets revisit this next spring and see your track record for your forecast…

#168 Ronaldo on 09.25.17 at 9:35 am

#149 I Do Not Love Canada on 09.25.17 at 2:58 am

So stay home.

#169 Stan Broock on 09.25.17 at 9:46 am

#21 MF on 09.24.17 at 4:37 pm
#14 Stan Broock on 09.24.17 at 3:57 pm

Simply Unbelievable.

Upset you cannot buy a house? Sure. Me too.

Calling Canada third world is flat our wrong though.

Go talk to some people, new immigrants most likely, who are actually from the third world and see if they agree.

MF

————————————

Would it not be better to point out the mistakes we make, so we can fix them?

Please loose that ‘patriotic’ posture according to which no one is allowed to criticize the country we live in and the country that we love.

Criticizing is being responsible, being dump obedient serf is insulting to yourself and irresponsible to the country you live in.

I hate the arrogant attitude toward 3rd world countries.

In most/if not all of them/the 3rd world countries that the proud ‘Canadian’ disrespects:
A single working doctor/engineer with 2 kids can buy a decent house, put their kids through university with no debt and actually retire.

So yes, you are NOT living in 3 rd world country as you can not afford none of the above.

Let’s be clear: expensive necessities are not a measure of a high standard. It is a measure of stupidity and exploitation.

#170 Ian on 09.25.17 at 9:51 am

#152 Dharma

I think that is a website error and they added an extra zero to the price somehow LOL

Flop, this will be a great one for your pink Ontario files.

#171 mother on 09.25.17 at 9:55 am

I’m moving to Toronto next month, and I’ve been doing a lot of reading about real estate there, including reading this blog, which I quite enjoy for its perspective.

While I think that the Toronto market is way over valued (30% 40%?), I don’t see a crash coming at all. I’m really disappointed so much cheap money was left around so long, ie. low interest rates, and that the system let people borrow so much…as far as I’m concerned that and Canadians weird desire for detached housing is the only reason for the insane pricing.

It’s possible that the new stress test will cause a bit of a haircut, but 5% is nothing when pricing will double/triple that over a year.

Presumably the government is going to try to walk a tightrope in terms of slowing down the economy (which is growing based on middle class equity borrowing) and not bankrupting middle class homeowners, and who knows how that will work other than the obvious of raising interest rates slightly.

What a mess.

#172 Deplorable Reprobate Damnation on 09.25.17 at 9:59 am

These complements are gonna go to his head now……….

a rogue, rascal, scoundrel, miscreant, good-for-nothing, villain, wretch, rake, degenerate, libertine, debauchee;

a sinner who is not of the elect and is predestined to damnation.

#173 IHCTD9 on 09.25.17 at 10:11 am

#68 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 7:17 pm

But one Dude, Jerry Dias head of Unions was all for punishing risk takers.
_________________________________

He’s got no choice. Trudeau made him look like a hero at the last GM negotiations by forking over taxpayer money to GM as an “investment” in order to kick the can down the road a few years. I think the same type of deal went down at Chrysler as well.

Jerry Dias was bought and paid for, now he is simply fulfilling his obligations.

#174 jess on 09.25.17 at 10:37 am

Albeit Japan is ethnically and culturally homogeneous society (and subsequent herd think)

…”herding effect” AI trading?
or

how about AI drones tech and eliminating the humans will the right decisions be made
autonomous systems
Dozens of CEOs from firms with a hand in artificial intelligence have issued a joint warning that autonomous weapons pose the risk of warfare that is cheaper, and can occur faster, than ever.

The letter, signed by 126 founders of robotics and artificial intelligence companies from 28 countries, asks the new UN group on autonomous weapons to “find a way to protect us all from these dangers.”
If a military robot makes a mistake, who’s liable: the military, the hardware maker, the software designer?

drones
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/23/world/middleeast/isis-drones-pentagon-experiments.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
======

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/cobalt-mining-resurgence-1.4030303

#175 jess on 09.25.17 at 10:50 am

“Being short America has been a loser’s game. I predict to you it will continue to be a loser’s game,” said Buffett,

“More than 80% of chief financial officers surveyed by accounting firm Deloitte said U.S. stock markets are overvalued, marking the highest level since Deloitte began conducting its quarterly poll about eight years ago.”

https://www.wired.com/2016/01/the-rise-of-the-artificially-intelligent-hedge-fund/

#176 John of Grant on 09.25.17 at 11:09 am

#170 Ian
#152 Dharma

I think that is a website error and they added an extra zero to the price somehow LOL

Flop, this will be a great one for your pink Ontario files.
—————————–
Check the street view on google maps. Solid chip board construction.

https://www.google.com/maps/@43.74571,-79.4232992,3a,78.5y,249.81h,91.21t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1ssOR0rT4ntzqQRRDBEFIjeg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

#177 Stan Broock on 09.25.17 at 11:12 am

#149 I Do Not Love Canada on 09.25.17 at 2:58 am
Dan T, we also visited Canada recently. Victoria BC to be exact. Our takeaway is thank the Universe we live in the US. Victoria’s etting is cute and the town is cute enough, but what an absurdly lame experience overall. Everything felt like it was 10-15 years behind the times, and there was absolutely nothing to do there that we couldn’t get at our home in San Diego. Absolutely NOTHING. Some poor bastard at the hotel concierge desk even stated he ranked the Royal BC Museum only next to the Smithsonian, globally speaking. My wife and I were a little taken by this statement, so naturally we were excited to see it. Are you fucking kidding me? All we could do was shake our heads, smile, and giggle at one another as not to be rude in our take on a clearly misinformed and overly proud mass of individuals. The place was contrived, run down, and needs some real space for proper exhibits. It was a children’s museum at best. I know Americans have a reputation to come off as overly proud, but have Canadians any wherewithal whatsoever of their nationalistic, self righteous, misinformed, and misaligned importance on a global scale? It was laughable and almost cute in a completely obnoxious way. Americans place flags on a lot of things, you say? Look around, we both agreed we’ve never seen so many flags and country symbolism in our lives as we saw in Canada. Everything, and I mean almost everything we encountered had 1) the Canadian flag slapped on it 2) had a maple leaf on it 3) or, had the word “Canada” on it. Sad really. Sad to a point the locals can’t see what’s right in front of them. There is an obvious, myopic system at play that provides sense of security to its citizens that things are going well and are “okay,” when in fact it is a completely government-centric society, lacking understanding that much of their scope is hand fed to them by the very government they are serving. Conflict of interest amounting to an undeniable poor outcome in the long run.

————————————

Terrific observations by an outsider.

We are not capable of observing rationally and critically our own environment,
we are spoon fed/thought what we should think and feel and ANY deviation from the established norm is punished.

Farm chicken with their heads in the sand, headed for slaughter.

#178 Sus on 09.25.17 at 11:33 am

My neck of the woods, Toronto – East York/Riverdale/Danforth/Greektown, things seem to be selling within a couple of weeks, mostly at or above asking. Of course, there are some greedy outliers asking way too much and those are sitting even after price reductions: https://www.zolo.ca/toronto-real-estate/21-rednor-road

#179 IHCTD9 on 09.25.17 at 11:45 am

#104 young & foolish on 09.24.17 at 9:10 pm

A couple of commentators brought up the issue of enormous, seemingly unpayable debts, and accompanying underfunded government liabilities. So, are we expecting inflation around the corner? What will happen to asset values? How can we expect a “return to the mean” in such an environment?
________________________________

No one has a crystal ball, but here are a few Canada-specific things you can probably bank on:

1. Stupid voters
2. Stupid government
3. Broke government
4. Broke voters

In that order.

IMHO, increasing your net income through work and investments will get more and more difficult with the passage of time if you stay honest. The heavier and more expensive government becomes – the deeper the folks supporting the weight will sink into the ground.

Success in the future will lie in living and earning WHERE IT MAKES FINANCIAL SENSE TO DO SO. Same with education, NET INCOME in the AREA YOU LIVE will need to justify the cost of your tuition.

Don’t worry about stuff like inflation, you actually have huge control over 90% of your expenditures. Asset values if so worrisome should be liquidated.

Be smart about your education costs, your income, and especially what city you chose to earn it in. Get smart quick regarding your high tax future.

The future belongs to those who know what value is, and can operate a calculator.

#180 Shortymac on 09.25.17 at 12:06 pm

Went to an open house in Innisfil today, people where asking for 475k for a 2 bedroom NOT on the water. Heck there are a couple of houses going for a million without waterfront.

However, it was an absolute ghost-town at the open houses and I’m seeing multiple “for sale” signs sticking around for months at a time. Price reductions are coming…

Sad thing is my bro and sis-in-law are still keen on buying in Innisfil, especially now that she’s expecting. Their house in Barrie is apparently “worth” over 500k but they bought at the right time for 280k. I told them to sell their house first then look pre-crunch but they didn’t listen, at least their current mortgage is affordable.

#181 Reprobate help clinic on 09.25.17 at 12:20 pm

#120 Smoking Man on 09.24.17 at 9:47 pm

So here I sit in my sons apartment no AC by the way. Got like 1000 bucks in my bank account.
We need to update a few definitions of Reprobates.
My son and I had a conversation, his point of view. To succeed in life. Everyone has to eat shit no matter who you are. The better it tastes in your mouth the higher you get up the ladder.
I personally would rather be a splat at the bottom of the latter than ever put a piece of that shit in my mouth.
My destiny.
_________________________________________
Listen to your son you idiot. He is right. Once your up the ladder you don’t have to eat anything.
Enjoy the heat old man.

#182 n1tro on 09.25.17 at 12:34 pm

#175 jess on 09.25.17 at 10:50 am
“Being short America has been a loser’s game. I predict to you it will continue to be a loser’s game,” said Buffett,

“More than 80% of chief financial officers surveyed by accounting firm Deloitte said U.S. stock markets are overvalued, marking the highest level since Deloitte began conducting its quarterly poll about eight years ago.”

https://www.wired.com/2016/01/the-rise-of-the-artificially-intelligent-hedge-fund/
——————————————–
You know what would have been a better survey?

The % of CFOs that think their own companies are overvalued. I would wager that +99% of those answering would say “No” because it would be a reflection on themselves.

#183 Lambo on 09.25.17 at 12:42 pm

#127 S.Bby

$75K is a small price to pay if you are parking a $500K Lamborghini or Maybach on it, I guess. If you own a penthouse, you probably own an expensive car as well.

#184 Rent Control on 09.25.17 at 12:57 pm

Rent is controlled?
“Hmm… maybe we should cancel those rental buildings and build condos instead?”
Can’t really blame them.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/report-finds-1000-planned-rental-units-convert-to-condos-in-wake-of-ontario-rent-control-expansion/article36382681/

Stop messing with the market, you daft politicians.

#185 IHCTD9 on 09.25.17 at 1:22 pm

Just what the Chinese and Russians want. A demonstration of just what the US has up there to stop ICBM’s.
_______

If they don’t already know, they’re 30-40 years too late to do anything about it.

The worry some folks have of NK attacking the USA is ridiculous. That’s a flea kicking an elephant. NK’s missile would splash down half way across the Pacific and I don’t know if the US would even bother retaliating in kind.

NK would more likely have every infrastructure point of any value being precision bombed into oblivion, hopefully followed by SK invading and taking over.

Will China defend NK? What’s China going to do about it? Send their single aircraft carrier over to take out 3-4 US Carrier battle Groups? Shoot at the carrier groups from shore? Send that huge army swimming out for an amphibious assault? Launch a Nuke? If China is not utterly stupid, then they will sit and watch quietly.

Italy has more carriers than China does for crying out loud.

Frankly, I can’t wait until that airhead in NK does something more than just talk. The sooner Trump can bomb every bridge, dam, airport, power station, government and military building over there the better.

I think folks need to do a bit of reading on US land, air, and sea power. Get some perspective. They basically have more firepower in any theatre you want to name than the rest of the world COMBINED. They know how to use it, and have the infrastructure to bring it with authority on a moments notice.

#186 Asterix1 on 09.25.17 at 1:32 pm

#162 Lee on 09.25.17 at 8:53 am
#155 Asterix1,

Where is this massive immigration? Canada will take in about 60,000 more people this year than last year when you include massive numbers of illegals. That is at most 20,000 families distributed around the country. The GTA will get about 5,000 of these families. They often live three families to a home since they don’t have money and find it hard to find jobs. So maybe, this will result in 2,000 extra homes in the GTA being sold each year if it keeps up. That’s about 160 a month divided among the various areas of the GTA. Big boost to sales.
___________________________________________

I said he spoke like a realtor because it is a lie that the RE industry keeps using and people believe! High immigration = FOMO. Its just not true!

EXAMPLE:
“Population growth isn’t driving Toronto house prices. So what is? While Toronto house prices have soared, the latest census figures show population growth in the city has begun to slow”

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/population-growth-isnt-driving-toronto-house-prices-so-what-is/

#187 Ace Goodheart on 09.25.17 at 1:47 pm

“#115 AceGoodheart You’re a lie on 09.24.17 at 9:39 pm
Ace Goodheart looks like a shyster agent! Show us the listing you’re talking about.”

I did notice one thing recently, which I have always noticed about any marketplace where items are being sold based on intrinsic, rather than observable value. That being, the real estate market in Toronto continues to have really good opportunities for people who are buying real estate as a long term investment with the view to capital gains.

What was happening most recently, just prior to the April 2017 crash, was that people were buying anything they could find, often in heated bidding wars, because the idea was that any house, building, piece of vacant land or even apparently decrepit, collapsing lane way garages with no utilities hook ups or occupancy permits, would continue to appreciate 30% or more per year, forever.

That sort of situation is best ignored by the experienced real estate investor.

You might as well just go and buy any stock, without doing any research on the company, or even knowing what it produces (often the tech companies did not have a product at all, or even plans for one, during the great “tech wrecks” where people did that). You are going to get burned investing like that.

With real estate investing, you are looking for three things:

1. A building in reasonable condition, outwardly crappy but with good bones that does not need a lot of expensive contractor work – ie, good electrical, plumbing, a water tight roof, reasonably solid foundations, functional and modern HVAC. You can fix and drywall and replace anything else, but the big stuff is expensive, you need permits and the contractors who do the work are skilled professionals which means you have to pay them a lot of money….

2. A crappy location. This is key. It has to be somewhere that people don’t want to buy property. For whatever reason, the location has to be undesirable. If it is popular, tony, “up and coming”, has recently had its name changed to make it part of a popular neighbourhood (the entire surrounding area of the neighbourhood called “The Junction” which is expanding every week is an example), stay away from it. Do not buy neighbourhood popularity.

3. The location has to have a “bet” that it is going to change. There has to be something in the future that might happen, that will change the value of the land in that location. It is not necessary that this event be assured to happen (although if you can find that, kudos you have found a real gem), it is good enough that it is likely to happen (you are betting after all, you might lose and you might win, that is why it is called betting).

Those are the three things you always look for. Building with good bones, a crappy location, and a bet that things will change. All of the great real estate investments have been made on those three principles, by people who had a bit of a knack for being able to predict the future.

Toronto still has plenty of these opportunities. During the course of a real estate downturn, these buying opportunities, which are nice little plays in boom times, become epic screaming buys.

#188 Howard on 09.25.17 at 1:55 pm

#149 I Do Not Love Canada on 09.25.17 at 2:58 am

I don’t disagree with some of your observations. Are you American or a Canadian expat?

Oh, and San Diego? I mean the weather’s always nice which makes the place seem more open and inviting since everyone is always outside, but other than that there’s not much to the place. What will happen there when Trump cuts off its supply of slave labour?

Speaking of 10-15 years behind the times, do you folks finally have the chip technology for credit cards? I was surprised and a bit bemused a couple years ago in New York when I had to sign a payment slip. Haven’t had to do that in Canada since the middle of the George W era.

#189 MaggieB on 09.25.17 at 1:57 pm

#149 I do not love Canada

Did you ever stop to consider all our Canadian flags are out for our 150th birthday?

#190 fancy_pants on 09.25.17 at 2:06 pm

great up in Port Moody. was lucky Clifford Olsen never nabbed me. was happening in PoCo around strip malls we perused on our bikes as kids.

the prices couldn’t be by foreign demand so must be the mountains. either way, Hongcouver is beautiful (and not as wet as I remember it being?)

#191 jess on 09.25.17 at 2:09 pm

humble admission to the ” sleeping giant “needs another name change equiFIX

Equifax’s manages 1,200 times more data a day than the Library of Congress. That’s why people are so worried

https://tinyurl.com/yb7rmu86

#192 NoName on 09.25.17 at 2:11 pm

Interesting read

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/09/sears-predicts-amazon/540888/?utm_source=atlfb&single_page=true

#193 IHCTD9 on 09.25.17 at 2:18 pm

#121 Lost…but not leased on 09.24.17 at 9:56 pm

Sorry…..not sustainable…an unacknowledged class warfare. Time for some sharpened pencils and/ or pink slips.
_____________________________

I love to daydream about governments realizing that they’re screwed financially and getting proactive hacking services, wages, benefits, pensions, staff, you name it.

Alas, it’s just a dream. Stuff like that never happens. What does happen is the song remains the same until they can’t possibly kick the can down the road any further. Then it’s SHTF.

Your best bet is to slow your funding of these doorknobs in Ottawa via offsetting your tax exposure. It’s the new thing, try it – I guarantee you’ll like it.

#194 Lee on 09.25.17 at 2:39 pm

#116 I think, #186 Asterix1

Exactly. Toronto’s growth rate is slowing. It is under 1% a year. Fairly typical for a big city. Same thing happening in New York and LA. Then you have to hope for wage growth or higher paying jobs to force house prices up, like in SF.

#195 Russ on 09.25.17 at 2:44 pm

I Do Not Love Canada on 09.25.17 at 2:58 am

Dan T, we also visited Canada recently. Victoria BC to be exact.
===========

Hey Dr. Zuess,

Victoria is quaint alright. It is known as the place for “newly wed or nearly dead”.

Were you in your right mind when the decision was made to visit?

#196 AGuyInVancouver on 09.25.17 at 2:47 pm

77 Stan Broock on 09.25.17 at 11:12 am

Terrific observations by an outsider.

We are not capable of observing rationally and critically our own environment,
we are spoon fed/thought what we should think and feel and ANY deviation from the established norm is punished.

Farm chicken with their heads in the sand, headed for slaughter.
_ _ _
You’re welcome to join him, don’t let the door hit ya on the way out.

The USA is a cesspool of racial tension, income inequality, crumbling infrastructure and gun violence. I don’t need to be enlightened by someone’s who’s ventured out of the safety of their gated community and spent a couple of days here.

#197 joblo on 09.25.17 at 2:49 pm

Hey how about Ben Mulroney for Prime Minister?

#198 noD9 on 09.25.17 at 2:50 pm

#177 Stan Broock on 09.25.17 at 11:12 am
#149 I Do Not Love Canada on 09.25.17 at 2:58 am

You two stuck a toe in Victoria and coughed up an opinion. How stereotypical of some urban consumption kings, toodling the convenience store circuit. Even a dull witted tramper knows you don’t know a place until you get off the beaten track and chill with the locals. Hang out with some of the people who fought off the 192,000 hectare Elephant Hill Wildfire this summer. Do you meet people of this character in San Diego? Or the 30,000 people who did an orderly evac in the middle of the night from Williams Lake, that takes an incredible community. (BTW, I watched the wind and smoke charts, you took more home from BC than just pleasant memories.) What did you think of the Valhalla, or Peace Country? Which is your favorite hidden hotspring? Which is your favourite restaurant in Nelson? Isn’t fascinating how Nasa studies Pavilion Lake to understand the origins of life on Earth? You do know we can grow kiwis here? Did you get to the hanging lake at Widgeon? Or Spotted Lake near Osoyoos? Or Bowron Lakes? Its on my bucket list to climb the Cimaron and walk the ridge in Tumbler. BC is a massive section of North American geography (check it out on Google Earth) with very little population and there is so much diverse territory it really makes your comments seem shallow, uninformed, and asinine. Did you really just slag an entire country after a stop in Victoria?

Oh well, happy asphalt.

#199 Ian on 09.25.17 at 2:51 pm

Just looking at zolo again…I predict in two weeks the GTA inventory will break through the highs set in July. 45 degree slope upwards!

#200 Howard on 09.25.17 at 2:54 pm

#180 Shortymac on 09.25.17 at 12:06 pm
Went to an open house in Innisfil today, people where asking for 475k for a 2 bedroom NOT on the water. Heck there are a couple of houses going for a million without waterfront.

——————————–

I don’t even know where Innisfil is, and I grew up in North York.

#201 Mike on 09.25.17 at 2:55 pm

.
Canada is different..
Vancouver is TOTALLY different.

My brother bought 6mo ago a SFH for 1.1M, neighbors selling now for 1.3M.

Have to drop 30% to be at same level since Garth and even me said overpriced…

#202 Ian on 09.25.17 at 3:00 pm

I predict “I do not love Canada” is SCM back to tell us how much he has been taken advantage of and how awful the country is.

#203 jess on 09.25.17 at 3:02 pm

Mr. Gary J. Aguirre
another definition financial
usa – third- world- level corruption

http://wallstreetonparade.com/

Former Investigator
U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission
June 28, 2006

https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Aguirre%20Testimony%20062806.pdf

#204 Burnaby Guy on 09.25.17 at 3:47 pm

#185 IHCTD9 – you make it sound so easy and simple to start a war. There is no doubt U.S. would destroyed N.K. What is the costs? Seoul is only 35 miles away from the DMZ and within range of their artillery. Tokyo is within striking distance of N.K’s missiles and air force. There is an estimate upwards of 1 million casualty including expats. Let’s link all these back to money since this is an investment blog. S.K. is the 11th and Japan is the 3rd largest economy in the world. If bombs start flying no doubt the world would plunge into a major recession. So what if the U.S. wins. They won’t be any better.

#205 Where's The Money Guido? on 09.25.17 at 4:00 pm

Re: #149 I Do Not Love Canada on 09.25.17 at 2:58 am

My first (and last) foray into San Diego was on my motorcycle ride around the SW states in 1989. I was heading to Mission Bay on Grand Avenue, turned left onto Mission Blvd. and right behind me a cop car came zooming up to the intersection, blocked off Mission Blvd., grabbed his dog and his shotgun and ran towards Ocean Front Walk. Scared the bejeezus out me!
I pulled into a small bar (now a taco stand) to avoid the scene, played the resident lady shark pool player and gut smoked.
Finally found out that the cops closed the beach and Mission Beach parking lot due to African-American gang-bangers blasting in the parking lot.
If I was there 5 minutes earlier I would have been in the middle of it because the parking lot was where I was going. Crazee Yanks!
I guess Victoria would be boring to that, but could have been nearly dead myself.

#206 Lost..but not leased on 09.25.17 at 4:03 pm

#193 IHCTD9

Re. civil service (including military and RCMP)pensions..http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/public-service-pension-plan-faces-4-4b-shortfall-that-liberals-are-legally-bound-to-make-up

Doing some research, they are the biggest federal liability after federal debt.

Ottawa is legally obligated to keep them funded and is doing so at a cost of over $400 million per year for 15 years(so far).

Morneau is professionally well versed in pensions…and
my suspicion is he is robbing Peter(private sector) to pay Paul(public sector)..till all hell breaks lose.

Maybe research what happened in Greece…the Golden Goose croaked.

#207 Stan Broock on 09.25.17 at 4:10 pm

The hypocrisy of this guy is astonishing!

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/trudeau-urges-canadian-companies-seek-135406198.html

Trudeau urged Canadian small- and medium-sized businesses to explore the US$5 trillion retail opportunity in China at a conference Monday hosted by Chinese e-Commerce giant Alibaba. Canadian businesses, he said, should focus on opportunities outside their border to stoke trade relationships with global “neighbours.”

Note: small and medium size Business, like there will be any left after his tax assault on small Businesses.

He should be praising the federal and provincial employees with their fat benefits to drive the economy in trading with China.

What an air head

#208 Windsurfer on 09.25.17 at 4:38 pm

#149 American visiting Victoria.

I agree, but we are a poor people and a dreary lot, at that.

We do not have the ability to “just add more money” to the situation. That phrase came to me several years ago from a Canadian food business person who was working for Americans in the San Diego area. He was both joking and serious about the statement.

Anyways, perhaps nobody told you in advance that Victoria was for the “newly wed & nearly dead” but that might have explained things.

Meanwhile, please come back, the next time possibly taking in the Hot Springs Tour starting in the Kootenays. Maybe you’ll even buy some real estate and stay a while.

Your opinion was invaluable and I’m serious in saying that.

#209 Asterix1 on 09.25.17 at 4:38 pm

#199 Ian on 09.25.17 at 2:51 pm
Just looking at zolo again…I predict in two weeks the GTA inventory will break through the highs set in July. 45 degree slope upwards!
———————
Yes:45 degrees
Direction: it’s not going up, but down if (more like when) inventory hits the roof again.

Credit crunch, interest rates, B20, debt, man! The party is so over, people still think the music is playing.

#210 Victor V on 09.25.17 at 4:42 pm

197 joblo on 09.25.17 at 2:49 pm

Hey how about Ben Mulroney for Prime Minister?

=======

Ben is a no. His sister is a possibility.

#211 JRT on 09.25.17 at 4:51 pm

My employer in Penticton believes real estate will go up forever rapidly and that everyone wants to move here. I see homes that finally sold after a long time being listed and many reduced signs. There are not that many high paying jobs here and they can’t depend on every retiree to prop up the market. Many ugly condos being built here which cost nearly as much as an average home. He has friends in the real estate industry so what he hears must be the truth, like the corporate media. ;)

#212 CJBob on 09.25.17 at 5:36 pm

#200 Howard on 09.25.17 at 2:54 pm
——————————–
I don’t even know where Innisfil is, and I grew up in North York.
_______
Ignorance is not the sort of thing you should be proud of. I’ve passed Innisfil Beach Road a hundred times on the 400 heading to Muskoka. If you haven’t been to Weber’s then I just feel sorry for you.

#213 IHCTD9 on 09.25.17 at 5:41 pm

#204 Burnaby Guy on 09.25.17 at 3:47 pm
—-

The point is, there isn’t going to be a war.

If Kim wants to start shooting up the entire Pacific rim, then I’d advise Trump to turn around and head for home. Let them sort it out themselves.

#214 Mike on 09.25.17 at 5:43 pm

JRT,

wages, jobs, blah blah doesnt matter in Canadian real estate, especially BC. Prices almost double every 5 years in YVR area, and now spreading to rest of BC.

Duplexes in trashy areas of YVR are going for 800k+ still. Those who make money there, buy elsewhere in BC where you live. They dont need high paying job. Walmart money just came back to them.

#215 IHCTD9 on 09.25.17 at 5:44 pm

#206 Lost..but not leased on 09.25.17 at 4:03 pm

Yep, hence the tax the rich plan

Good luck with that T2

#216 Lost...but not leased on 09.25.17 at 6:03 pm

Further to my last post..

The issue revolves around Bill C – 27,which media reports was kept rather low key.

The basic summary is whether pensions are:
(i) defined benefits
OR
(ii)target benefit plans.

defined means certainty…target means more the beneficiary is more involved(aka gov’t less).

Public sector unions are adamantly against target benefit plans(obviously… why derail the taxpayer funded gravy train???)…

In the US the 401K are” targetted “pensions (see TV’s 60 Minutes on this topic)…but are fraught with risk. Many companies directed their employees in this direction in lieu of traditional plans…mainly because the private sector found them unsustainable…and morseo as companies went bankrupt and employees were often low on the priority list of creditors.

The 401 K story showed that targetted pensions resulted in a lot of failure and exploitation by financial industry…most people are not savvy enough in things financial.

However…does this imply reverting back to defined plans ??? IMHO no…majority of people are caught between a rock and a hard place….defined plans are UNsustainable..and Targetted plans are too volatile.

Solution?…I submit that if Turdeau and Moroneau want to fix what they claim is broken….they cannot be held hostage to the mandarin class…this must be tackled first.

Defined pension plans create the parallel to the more recent taxation targets of small business sector…ie (2) elite classes …with all the circumstantial evidence pointing to robbing the private sector to fund the public sector liabilities incurred without mandate by our”elected representatives”.

#217 Lost...but not leased on 09.25.17 at 6:17 pm

North Korea???…bwhahahahaha

No sleep to be lost here..
just the equivalent of a fabricated James Bond Villain….

The world is a stage, and we need some bad guy “du jour…”..politicians need some external bad guy to deflect attention for more pressing domestic issues.

Nukes??? Maybe do some research…lots of educated opinions they do NOT exist..just like the moon landing is a certified hoax.

#218 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.25.17 at 6:41 pm

@# 217 Lost your mind
“Nukes??? Maybe do some research…lots of educated opinions they do NOT exist..just like the moon landing is a certified hoax…..”

++++++

As Dr Evil would say,
“Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight”

#219 Clifford Tindall on 09.26.17 at 3:22 pm

Man I love your writing Garth. I’ve said it for a little bit now, sounds like Vancouver is experiencing a clear dead cat bounce bull trap scenario. We are basically 18 months behind Vancouver’s movements. That will probably contract once we see the reality of this probability.

Maybe the federal government will also get their asses in gear to require complete disclosure of where funds are coming from to purchase property and smoke these bastard foreign buyers out.