The do-over

For the last hundred agonizing days, realtors have told lonely sellers to be patient. “Come September,” they’ve said with gravitas, “it all changes. After Labour Day the market will come back. Just you wait ‘n see. I know this stuff.”

Well, not so much. Almost half way into what was supposed to be the recovery month in the bloodied GTA, the news is grim. Sales are lousy and prices are falling. Potential buyers were rattled by July’s interest rate increase and shocked by the one in September. Suddenly all those assumptions – that Justin would never let mortgages go up, voracious immigrants will forever jack prices, everybody wants to live here and it’s, like, different this time – are dust.

Since the lights went out in April, says veteran broker Alex Prikhodko, almost 4,500 listings have been allowed to expire. Another 45,000 properties came off the market as sellers either suspended or terminated their listings. And still there are about 25,000 houses for sale.

“That is roughly 50,000 people waiting to offload and cash out in the wake of “don’t worry, it will rebound in September” lie manufactured by the real estate industry,” he tells me. “September is sure looking like a massive flop with a lot of people about to realize what kind of financial mess they got themselves into. Denial cannot last forever and putting your head into the sand doesn’t magically wish your problems away.”

Still the realtor figures sales will be slightly higher this month than last (nothing to be too proud of), while average prices will continue to tank.

“Everybody, literally everybody, was waiting for a strong market rebound. I’m going to have to disappoint them and dismiss those sentiments as wishful thinking. Nobody is waiting for a rebound more so than those who listed their properties but failed to sell between mid-April and today.”

And, holy mother of mortgages, look what the diggers at Moody’s Analytics just dragged in. It’s a new report claiming GTA detached house prices – which have shed about 20% of their value this year – may be overvalued by as much as 60%. Canadians, it warns, should prepare “for several years of retrenchment” with real estate values across the entire country averaging just 1% growth annually for the next decade. That should be way less than inflation – and with mortgage rates expected to bloat by at least a full point over the next 12 months (more afterwards), it will feel like going backwards. Which it will.

At particular risk are the folks who together borrowed $220 billion at variable rates against their real estate equity in order to (a) renovate their houses, (b) buy more houses or (c) give to their kids to buy houses. The cost of those borrowings is rising fast and hard, while the value of the assets falls. What seemed like a good idea at the time looks wild now.

Remember, too, we’re just weeks away from B-20 revisions to federal banking guidelines that will require all house buyers seeking a mortgage to bend over and take a stress test. If they don’t qualify to carry a loan at current rates +2%, they don’t get it. Available credit is expected by the mortgage industry to fall by 18%. When credit wilts, so do prices.

By the way, it’s coming. Have no doubt about that. Just listen to Dave McKay, who happens to be in charge of the Royal Bank: “We need some of this policy change, particularly the B-20 change, as we are in a highly stimulative monetary policy environment. We needed to layer on some type of policy change; now that the Bank of Canada feels more comfortable raising rates, that’s supposed to be the brake on the economy that we all like to see.”

In other words, they want brakes. The Bank of Canada. The feds. The provinces. The lenders. It’s why we’ve seen rates double in two months, why there are foreign buyer taxes, universal rent controls, speculator taxes, empty house levies and stress tests. It’s what this moany, pissy blog has been warning you about for months. Lo, years. One-asset strategies don’t work. Period.

So at risk now, especially, are moisters and newbies who bought in the last year or so, have fat mortgages destined to reset higher and whose equity will be wiped away entirely by even a modest correction. Big risk, too, for people at or nearing retirement with the bulk of their net worth in a single asset which has just turned illiquid. Without selling, they don’t release the equity which is essential to generating cash flow in a world where 70% don’t have pensions.

September was supposed to change all that. The big do-over. Imagine how January will feel.

191 comments ↓

#1 Randy on 09.13.17 at 6:17 pm

I wear my sunglasses at nite too

#2 Trawna on 09.13.17 at 6:22 pm

Sometimes I lay at night wondering if there is a Dog.

#3 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.13.17 at 6:23 pm

Without selling, they don’t release the equity which is essential to generating cash flow in a world where 70% don’t have pensions.
………………..
……..and SAFE and RELIABLE cash flow is not easy to find.

#4 Alberta Ed on 09.13.17 at 6:25 pm

The slap-dash newly constructed condos and townhouses in Cochrane are 40-60% overpriced. Most are built to minimum standards with the cheapest components possible on postage-sized lots; garages (if any) are only large enough for Tonka-sized vehicles, and the driveways are too short even to fit an F-150.

#5 Royal City Dweller on 09.13.17 at 6:25 pm

FURST! Again
(I’m collecting Points)

#6 crdt on 09.13.17 at 6:26 pm

You are richer then you think…. uh oops..

#7 Guy in Calgary on 09.13.17 at 6:28 pm

Ah, the return to the GTA death watch, my favourite death watch. Let those million dollar pieces of ply wood and plaster tumble down to earth (both in price and literally when they fall apart.)

I am a home owner but not a smug one and not one in the GTA (cashed out Sep 2016). I cannot wait for a time when the conversations around home ownership become a thing of the past. No more how many condos you “own” or what kind of sweet renos you’re making to your “man cave”. How much “equity” you have.

Home ownership has its merits. I have both rented and owned, lived in different places in this country even though I’m only closing in on 30. I prefer owning and take pride in my home. I enjoy it. I still have freedom and travel multiple times per year. You do not have to rent to have freedom but to own, you have to love where you live. I will still maintain if you buy within your means and stick it out for the long term you will be fine. Buy a home not an investment. If you pay $1500/m for a mortgage versus $2k in rent for the same property, and the payments are well within your budget, you will be fine. Especially if you stay in the home long term. Entry points are also important and for the GTA, you are catching a falling knife.

Try to keep up with the Jones’ and you will lose it all…maybe not, but you’ll be miserable either way.

#8 Sebee on 09.13.17 at 6:28 pm

January horoscope for Aquarius:
Today is not a good day to look at your house value, mortgage rates, or HELOC due. Buy lottery ticket, lucky number 37.

January horoscope for all other signs speculating on RE:
See above

#9 Danny on 09.13.17 at 6:29 pm

Re Cow Man #134…yesterday comments
Hi Cow Man..thanks for your quote to me below:

“Don’t paint all MP’s with your personal experience.”
Thanks for keeping my comment about my recent experience with my MP and MPP more balanced.
Actually today I received a reply from the Prime Minister’s saying they would pass my suggestion of keeping income sprinklering but with an upper limit, to the Finance Minister.
Yes your right Cow Man some politicians do respond to emails.
Although my MP is not available to meet individuals in his constituency office.
I was used to those many years being represented by the late MP Charles Caccia first Minister of the Environment who was available on weekends to meet anyone who walked through the constituency office….a lot like what you said Garth was like as an MP….available and responsive.
Too bad MPs are not required to hold Town Hall meetings between elections so that democracy also flourishes between elections.

#10 young & foolish on 09.13.17 at 6:29 pm

Ouch! …. and ouch again!

Stick to renting folks, it’s safer. And if you sold high and buried your cash in the equity markets, well, you are going to get whacked there soon enough.

#11 Howard on 09.13.17 at 6:31 pm

Happy Housing Crash Everyone for PM!

#12 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 09.13.17 at 6:32 pm

……..and SAFE and RELIABLE cash flow is not easy to find.
…………..
I should have added ADEQUATE to safe and reliable. Unless you have a million or two a good safe return is not easy to find.

#13 Whinepegger on 09.13.17 at 6:32 pm

Gotta hand it to you, Garth. When you’re right, you’re right. And though I may not agree with you 100% of the time (no suck up from me!) you did give us some good advice. Sold our house here on the flat lands 18 months ago and rented a condo. Trying to explain the hidden cost of lost opportunity cost was difficult the first year. Finally printed out the returns we were getting from our diversified portfolio and a comparison chart of rent vs buy. Shut up a whole lotta wise guys that kept showing up telling me I was throwing away money. Not so much any more. So a big thanks and the next time I’m in the vicinity of a certain little general store I’ll be sure to tip generously and give the credit where it’s due.

#14 Andrewski on 09.13.17 at 6:33 pm

Re: Royal City Dweller, what’s worse, coming first or not even knowing if you have come first & thinking you have come first! ;)

#15 Larry from ON on 09.13.17 at 6:34 pm

“So at risk now, especially, are moisters and newbies who bought in the last year or so, have fat mortgages destined to reset higher and whose equity will be wiped away entirely by even a modest correction. Big risk, too, for people at or nearing retirement with the bulk of their net worth in a single asset which has just turned illiquid. Without selling, they don’t release the equity which is essential to generating cash flow in a world where 70% don’t have pensions.”

It’s unfortunate but I know of family and family friends that are in either of these positions.

Garth, reading through the census data article from the Globe and Mail published today that:

“For Canadians in all household types, median income rose 10.8 per cent between 2005 and 2015, to $70,336”;

aren’t average home prices in the $750,000 range? Even with 20% plop from April, we’re still greater than 10:1 home price to household income ratio (median and average measures aside). It’s pooched. If credit falls 18% with new qualification rules and translates to price, average prices could be 50 Shades above $600k. Goooooooodnight.

BTW – next elections can’t come soon enough. Give these Liberals their walking papers.

#16 David McDonald on 09.13.17 at 6:35 pm

Garth, that was depressing. You are right of course but sitting here after a gorgeous sunny day I have to say all is not gloom and doom. We are experiencing the real estate correction you have (too) long predicted and we will soon be taxed like Scandinavians but we don’t have hurricanes and we don’t have Trump so it’s all good.

#17 Cloudy on 09.13.17 at 6:45 pm

Garth, will you please run for MP again? We need you.

#18 MSM-Free Zone on 09.13.17 at 6:46 pm

At least that explains why all the Audi’s, Beemer’s, Jag’s, Rover’s, Lexus’, and Porsche’s in the GTA are being driven by neck-tied, road-raging, suicidal morons these days.

The Fast & Delirious – When Chrome Meets Wall

#19 Jim on 09.13.17 at 6:47 pm

So if housing is overvalued by 60 percent, why will it still increase by 1 percent for the next five years?

#20 -=jwk=- on 09.13.17 at 6:48 pm

Our two homes in Cape Coral came through with minor, minor damage….and our principal residence in Ottawa (we bought 2 years ago with 25% down) will do what Ottawa has done for the last 20 years – track inflation. No higher. No lower. Just a flat line.

sure, we are a little overweight in real estate, but I like to think it is somewhat diversified. And we’ll concentrate on the TFSA’s from here that will help balance out.

I have been through the rapid rise, rapid fall before (lived in Los Angeles from 1999-2005). The rise is full of confidence and boasting, the fall is a sad, quiet time. it’s not pretty.

And for those that think you’ll be able to vulch? Think again. it will be cash buyers only until the banks are sure we’ve hit bottom….

#21 Mike on 09.13.17 at 6:50 pm

Canada is special
Nobody will sell at lower price
Price won’t go down much.

People will pay more with higher rates..as their realtor will tell them so. Affordability has never been an issue with Canadians. Richie rich….bling bling.

#22 Ex-Cowtown on 09.13.17 at 6:50 pm

“In other words, they want brakes.”

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

They’ll get them. Carbon Tax. Small Business Assassination Tax.

Be careful what you wish for.

#23 Sprawl on 09.13.17 at 6:51 pm

Would like to know the stats on HELOCs?

#24 The Limited Sage on 09.13.17 at 6:53 pm

Garth, here’s the only comment suggestion I have that needs to be implemented: permanent ban any user who wastes everyone’s time with ”first” ‘comments

#25 Millenials on 09.13.17 at 6:57 pm

I will bet you come January you will still be talking about how the market is bad and just wait for the next rate increase before the carnage starts. The reality is very few will be significantly impacted. at least in TO and Vancouver where there is steady investment with influx of new citizens. Yawn…..

#26 waiting on the westcoast on 09.13.17 at 7:03 pm

SCM will probably complain that interest rates will be too high for him to buy a house in 3 years… ;-)

SCM – I realize that you feel Canada is not doing that great right now. You should see the punishment the US took. People working for free for a couple of years as interns trying to break into jobs, etc. We barely caught the cold in Canada in 2008 but the effects of technological change are sweeping the planet. Massive opportunities and massive challenges.

You come across as very smart so I hope you let go of the victimhood and focus on being 10% better than everyone else… that is really all it takes! Time spent on rationalizing how tough things are is truly a wasteful indulgence. Try living in a 3rd world country to see how lucky you are.

BTW – I think you should change your moniker to Scared Canadian Millenial (or Millennial)… ;-)

#27 Dolce Vita on 09.13.17 at 7:03 pm

That was…

excellent Garth.

Now for the RE Cult geniuses in YVR buying expensive condos thinking they can make money by flipping before possession and not declaring income (August 30, 2017):

The federal government is taking the property developers behind the Marine Gateway project on Marine Drive in Vancouver and the Residences at West on southeast False Creek to court, probing for information on buyers who flipped their pre-sale contracts before construction was completed to verify compliance with the Income Tax Act.

But the Cult, in their infinite wisdom, think the Government is bluffing or too understaffed to catch them, ’cause, the Cult is so smart.

Well (August 31, different properties)…

Surrey real estate investor has been handed a 15-month conditional sentence and $129,750 in fines after pleading guilty to income-tax evasion in a Canada Revenue Agency investigation.

[owns 10 properties in Surrey, valued at $8.8 million in total. In various mortgage documents for these homes, XXXXXX lists his occupation as “self-employed” and also “janitorial,” as well as “sawmill worker.”]

I wonder how this self-employed individual managed to round up that kind of money in mortgages?

The YVR RE crash with rates going up, B20 decreasing the number of qualified buyers will be epic if the above guy is an indication.

And, it is going to epic watching the YVR RE Cult play Russian Roulette with the CRA or try and sell their brand spanking new over priced properties into a deader than death itself YVR Resale Condo market.

________________________

“Holy Mother of Mortgages”…that was good.

#28 Keith in Calgary on 09.13.17 at 7:05 pm

Alberta Ed……

Got the brother in law from Brasil up here for 2 months, so we drove him out to Cochrane for a McKay’s ice cream cone.

He couldn’t stop laughing when he saw what we construct buildings out of. The guy is an engineer by trade too…….said a shack in a favela is probably made better than these places…….at least those are concrete and steel…….we use the crap that gets wiped up from the carpenter’s shop floor, put water and glue in with it, press it together and market the finished product as “Wuud”………kind of like the adviser/advisor thing you know…..LOL !!!!

#29 Linda on 09.13.17 at 7:10 pm

If I’m reading tonight’s column correctly, Moody’s report says Canadian real estate is overvalued by 60% BUT the expectation is that RE values will continue to grow by roughly 1% per annum. If values are expected to increase how does that equate to lower prices? I thought that prices were supposed to come down (& they have) so now what? Buyers pay less (maybe) but are taxed more because the value of what they purchased is deemed to be higher than what they paid, or what? This seems very contradictory.

Toronto house prices are not identical to national ones. — Garth

#30 Supply Me Cheap Houses on 09.13.17 at 7:10 pm

I am not following – if people are pulling their listings, it does not mean that all need to sell. Many were likely fishing while some were market timing and holding out for a rebound.

As a result of all the delistings, sellers have restricted supply which puts upward pressure on housing – not downward. More buyers chasing fewer homes. It seems some posters on here got this right a few months ago when they said the price drops would just mean people pull their listings.

The Vancouver and Victoria experience has shown for years that restricted supply has led to price increases….

#31 What has this become on 09.13.17 at 7:11 pm

Since when did this become the zero site? Suddenly doom and gloom is all Garth can put out. Only recently he was touting how the correction would be a slow melt not a crash, and now that we’ve had a ‘crash’ (really just a reversal of the past year’s spike), it’s time to stock up on canned tuna and ammo? C’mon Garth, things aren’t that dire. People are returning to buy. It isn’t April, but it isn’t May either. Balance – I’m not a realtor, I’m not a doomer – I’m a rare breed called a critical thinker. One that, you know – actually listens to both sides of an argument and draws his own conclusions. One who isn’t left or right, or pro or con, but follows the data. Not cherry-picks it to suit their argument. You’re finally right about a correction after umpteen years – feels like you’re getting on your soapbox to do your victory lap. “See, I told you all I was right!”.. yeesh..

#32 Lead Paint on 09.13.17 at 7:14 pm

I own a small business with 19 employees. I’ll let the employees know that the Liberals are attacking small businesses, and is going impact our ability to give them a raise this year. Further, if the liberal attack on small business continues, their jobs will be in jeopardy and their ability to find a new job threatened by the Liberals assault on small business.

I will remind them that their tax dollars largely go to civil servants who work way less than they do but get paid way more, and get pensions and benefits we could only dream of.

Quite the sectarian strife the Trust Twins have stirred up! I regret voting for the wonderkid. My bad.

#33 conan on 09.13.17 at 7:14 pm

We will probably see another 25% reduction in GTA. Hardest hit will be the people who bought those cookie cutter houses with shoddy materials.

What is going on with Kim? He gets a pass now that he has an H bomb?

https://imgur.com/bLxF4Fo

#34 Insider INfo on 09.13.17 at 7:17 pm

Somebody had posted a link a few months back that showed the sold price of all homes in the gta.

The website is down…does anyone know where else know where to get the info now?

#35 Reality 1 on 09.13.17 at 7:18 pm

JUST A THOUGHT …

No one that I have spoken to (by phone) recently in the GTA had knowledge of the facts provided on this blog concerning the state of / dynamics of the RE market there. A few acknowledged a slow down, but had no idea of the cause or ‘mechanics’ or consequences of OSFI’s proposed actions.

Truly amazing.

This is why OSFI is acting – the only message that these Greater Fools will understand is restricted access to or denial of credit.

#36 Raj on 09.13.17 at 7:18 pm

I read somewhere today that BOC is going to hike twice this year, once in October and another in December.
Who would have imagined this just a few short months ago!!

#37 Dolce Vita on 09.13.17 at 7:21 pm

Almost as bad as the 70%:

50% of those 55 to 64 years old have no other pension beyond CPP and OAS.

And, they have less than 1 year of savings to cover expenses.

What is happening or will happen in RE, doomer debt studies about Canadians borrowing themselves into extinction and that many Boomers ill prepared for retirement makes me very apprehensive about our economy.

I’m starting to think that the 4.5% annualized GDP is the last great gasp of spending by Canadians using borrowed money including their home ATM card (i.e., as their single asset losses value and rates go up).

This will not end well.

#38 Andrew Woburn on 09.13.17 at 7:24 pm

California is on track to bring in a minimum wage of $15 an hour by 2022. California is also home to Caliburger:

“Burger-Flipping Robot Taking Over In 50 Fast Food Restaurants”

http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2017/09/13/robot-fast-food-burger/

The $15 minimum wage is about $30,000 a year. If you assume one robot replaces two shifts, that is $60K per year, likely enough to finance the machine over five or so years.

#39 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.13.17 at 7:35 pm

You dirty lying shysters just make up stories. You shysters are POS. You are below POS. You realtors should be in prison. You shysters are evil monsters and I can not put it into words how much I hate shyster realtors. You help people financially murder themselves and some of you dirty Shysters didn’t even finish grade 8. Yes grade 8 shysters advising people on the biggest purchase of people’s lives.

#40 Oakville Sucks on 09.13.17 at 7:39 pm

Here on Oakville for sale signs are coming down as properties having been sitting for months. Many houses have switched to rentals!

Oakville is coming down hard! 60% decrease highly probable for garbage quality homes!

#41 Dolce Vita on 09.13.17 at 7:39 pm

#21 Supply Me Cheap Houses

Not quite true for YVR. Go to Zolo.ca, near real time MLS data:

Anything over $500K in price has days on market steadily increasing over the past 3 months vs. last year.

About 2800 inventory holding steady, 600 sales currently and has been dropping over the past 3 months; thus, no supply restriction problem here, sales the problem.

Detached showing a 5% month increase only because a very expensive 6 BD home sold recently that distorted the avg. price upwards – not hard to do with all of 118 sales. Avg. so badly skewed that the average is far greater than the Median selling price – means all that is selling are cheap condos and even that avg. price has been dropping over the past 3 months.

Since the Oct. 2016 insured stress test, list prices have steadily decreased, not a single month where the average price went up and currently, getting very negative with a 3:1 ratio of down vs. up.

Not a supply problem. A sales problem. Last 3 months have been abysmal for the YVR Resale RE market overall, beyond sad for the Detached market.

Rate increases to come and B20 will probably be the end of the so called supply restricted, but price still increasing YVR RE market.

Actually, that started a little over 3 months ago.

#42 Reality 1 on 09.13.17 at 7:40 pm

to # 20 JWK

Do you even know /read what you are posting ?

You think that your house in Ottawa will “…track inflation..” if real estate becomes a “cash buyers only market until the banks are sure we’ve hit bottom.”

If it gets to “cash buyers only” , the RE markets across Canada – your house included – would be a fraction of current pricing.

Jeez man, think !

#43 -=jwk=- on 09.13.17 at 7:47 pm

@ #32 Lead Paint

I own a small business with 19 employees. I’ll let the employees know that the Liberals are attacking fake small businesses, ones that are a scam and take deductions they shouldn’t, making all of them pay more in taxes. If they don’t do something about it, real small busineses like ours will suffer.

Further, if the liberal attack on fake small business succeeds, their jobs will be more secure and their ability to find a new job improved by the Liberals assault on fake small business. I’d point out that Canada is at lowest unemployment numbers in a generation and we’d like to keep it that way.

fixed that for you

#44 For those about to flop... on 09.13.17 at 7:48 pm

The Vancouver real estate market reminds me of walking by a Lush Cosmetics store.

Something doesn’t smell right ,but you’re not sure what it is…

M43BC

#45 Dolce Vita on 09.13.17 at 7:49 pm

#32 Lead Paint

I agree. YOU are a legitimate small business owner and are getting caught in between the cross hairs of Ottawa trying to reign in Prof. Corps. like the Doctors, Dentists et. al. that are using Corporate rules as their own private tax haven for retirement and decreasing income by sprinkling or tax evasion by converting dividends into capital gains.

I hope T2 et. al. distinguishes between Owners such as yourselves and the “fake” corporations that are nothing more than Sole Proprietors masquerading as legitimate Corporations such as yours.

Having been there, my heart goes out to you and all the best…hopefully Ottawa will separate the wheat from the chaff, hopefully.

#46 AGuyInVancouver on 09.13.17 at 7:49 pm

The same old turgid SFH listing in Vancouver keep hanging on, sellers hopefully waiting for that magical Chinese buyer. I used this one as a “pink pollen” example and a cautionary tale in spec building back in July:

3365 Quebec St Vancouver
Lot sold May 2015 at $1.35 mil as a teardown
Newbuild listed June $3.298 mil
Removed and relisted mid-July $2.98 mil
Removed and relisted mid-Sept now $3.199 mil

Silly realtor pricing games.

#47 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 09.13.17 at 7:51 pm

real estate out here is slow slow slow

but summer fun with the butterflies is over
now on to try and arrow the elusive wapiti

#48 Ernest on 09.13.17 at 7:52 pm

Garth,
The only thing I dislike about you is your criticism of Trump. Thanks God we don’t have a lefty for president.
MAGA

#49 the ryguy on 09.13.17 at 7:55 pm

#30 Supply Me Cheap Houses on 09.13.17 at 7:10 pm

Im guessing there are 10’s of thousands of people holding multiple properties. I cant even tell you how many times Ive heard “yeah I lose a couple hundred renting it, but it only goes up”. Add to that, the huge majority of people that are highly leveraged in order to make these purchases. This is simply not sustainable.

#37 Dolce Vita on 09.13.17 at 7:21 pm

Bingo. Helocs in 2015 were 12% of GDP. That is astronomical. The purse strings will be tightened, just no other way.

#50 Bob on 09.13.17 at 7:57 pm

Dog spelled backwards is God….

…I know, cheesy.

#51 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.13.17 at 7:57 pm

What happened shysters? Where is the rebound? Where are the buyers? Why can’t you sell anything using your special realtor powers? Fact is you shysters are useless. You and your board of useless eaters should be dismantled by the government and opened up to free market forces. A realtors value would drop to a fraction of their current inflated commissions.

Happy Housing Crash Everyone Everyone ! :-)

#52 tccontrarian on 09.13.17 at 8:02 pm

#6 crdt on 09.13.17 at 6:26 pm

” You are richer then you think…. uh oops..”
——————————————————————

Was always, really,

“WE’re richer than you think”,
(ie ‘we can create money out of thin air, and you can’t. You have to actually WORK for it)

and

“you’re way more fukt than you think, or slowly finding out” (since ALL that debt we issued to you with a stroke of a pen, you’re on the hook for! All of it!)

War and banking – the most profitable industries funded by … ‘Main Street’ sheeple!

Go get’m them terrorists.

TCC

#53 Ace Goodheart on 09.13.17 at 8:07 pm

They’re collapsing my OneReit. I really liked that one. Built it up with a combination of dividend reinvestment and monthly contributions.

When did buying houses on spec become a meme?

We need a meme policing department. Weed out the bad ones before they become mainstream.

#54 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.13.17 at 8:08 pm

#35 Reality 1

Exactly. I’ve even written to wild bill and even OSFI trying to explaining and point out that the masses will borrow until they are bankrupt. The only way to stop them is restriction to borrow. I don’t know how many letters I sent ( used alot of Garths numbers ). They will finally cut off credit . Happy Housing Crash Everyone ! :-)

#55 In Markham on 09.13.17 at 8:13 pm

Ugly ugly house in Markham asking for $1,188,800. Will this one sell?

https://www.zolo.ca/markham-real-estate/108-holm-crescent

#56 Fran Deck Jr. on 09.13.17 at 8:16 pm

@37 Dolce Vita

“50% of those 55 to 64 years old have no other pension beyond CPC and OAS”

Actually, it’s 50% of COUPLES aged 55 to 64 do NOT have a registered company pension between them …

And consider pensioners from companies like Sears, GM or even Canada Post … there’s a reason that Morneau wants to enact legislation to potentially change defined benefit pension plans to TARGET benefit pension plans …

Government defined benefit pension plans are becoming a thing of the past … staff positions with pensionable benefits no longer exist … everything is contract work … and we know what Morneau will do to those “small business people” in this falls budget … and just wait until AI and robotics displace a significant % of our work force … wait until Morneau taxes capital gains on the sale of a principle residence all in the name of social justice …

Canada’s dystopian future is here now …

#57 Doug t on 09.13.17 at 8:17 pm

Winter is coming

RATM

#58 FLHTK on 09.13.17 at 8:23 pm

Wow! 70% no pension! Time for a career change I’d say!

#59 Asterix1 on 09.13.17 at 8:28 pm

Remember that poll that showed that most Canadians would be in financial distress if interest rates went up a little. The numbers were brutal!

14% can only handle a rise of 0%.
38% can only handle a rise of 1% to 5%.
20% can only handle a rise of 6% to 10%
22% can only handle a rise of 11% to 30%

___

Lets now take for example a 1M$ in property in Toronto, 20% down payment which equals a mouth-watering 800,000$ mortgage.

At 2.70% (5 year fixed) = 3,664$ per month
At 2.95% its 3,765$. (since July)
At 3.20% its 3,869$ (since September)
At 3.45% its 3,973$ (coming soon)
At 3.70% its 4,079$ (coming soon)

From the lowest rate present, its already +5.59% more to pay on a mortgage every month, that’s 52% of Canadians that would be in financial distress.

Lets add two more rate increase (Oct and early 2018) and you now have +11.32% more costs to a mortgage. An atrocious 72% of Canadians cant handle it financially!

Ass Bill Paxton said it so eloquently in Aliens…
“Game over, man. Game over!”

#60 For those about to flop... on 09.13.17 at 8:38 pm

Here is the latest effort from howmuch,U.S numbers ,but someone on here will get something out of it.

Clink on the link to look at the chart…

M43BC

“Best Jobs Without a College Degree 2017

The Great Recession destroyed the job market for workers without college degrees, and the situation hasn’t gotten any better. This begs the question—can you still enjoy a high standard of living without a college degree? And what are the highest paying jobs for people without a traditional higher education? Our new chart sheds some light on these pressing questions.”

Highest Paying Jobs Without Needing a Degree
1. Nuclear power reactor operator – $91,170 (salary) & 7,170 (workers)

2. Transport manager – $89,190 (salary) & 113,270 (workers)

3. Police supervisor – $84,840 (salary) & 100,200 (workers)

4. Power distributor – $81,900 (salary) & 11,380 (workers)

5. Elevator installer – $78,890 (salary) & 22,240 (workers)

6. Detective – $78,120 (salary) & 104,980 (workers)

7. Commercial pilot – $77,200 (salary) & 38,980 (workers)

8. Media equipment worker – $75,700 (salary) & 18,620 (workers)

9. Electrician – $75,670 (salary) & 23,060 (workers)

10. Power plant operator – $74,690 (salary) & 35,010 (workers)

https://howmuch.net/articles/highest-paying-jobs-without-college-degree

#61 Rexx Rock on 09.13.17 at 8:39 pm

Yes GTA will suffer and YVR and Victoria will slow down in sales and appreciation for a few years until the central bank and goverment stoke the housing like they did the last 17 years.Still booming like there is no tommorrow here in Victoria.Come and see,drive around around and you will be amazed.Like Langford where they give out building permits like candy!

#62 young & foolish on 09.13.17 at 8:46 pm

“So if housing is overvalued by 60 percent, why will it still increase by 1 percent for the next five years?”

By the same yardstick, you could ask the same question regarding equity markets.

#63 Love this Blog on 09.13.17 at 8:55 pm

I am with the above poster.

Someone commenting “First” needs to be banned. Why pollute sucha good site?

#64 Interstellar Old Yeller on 09.13.17 at 8:57 pm

Moody’s estimates 60%? That’s about what it would take to attract us, as buyers (our house horniness is under control. :-)

#65 Royal City Dweller on 09.13.17 at 9:00 pm

Toronto, Everyone Wants To Live Here,
cause it’s, like, you know, like the best in the world…

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2016/09/toronto-voted-best-city-world-people-whove-never-anywhere-else/

#66 And I Quote on 09.13.17 at 9:02 pm

“Behind every beautiful thing, there’s some kind of pain.”
― Bob Dylan

#67 Ana on 09.13.17 at 9:02 pm

#28 – I agree.

You used to delete the ‘firsts’ Garth. They were on your list of 10 reasons for deletion. They are the most annoying comments for me to scroll past every day.

I welcome the cooling of the housing market for the sake of fiscal responsibility being forced onto people who don’t know any better.

#68 Investx on 09.13.17 at 9:04 pm

This slow melt is pretty fast, Garth.

#69 Stone on 09.13.17 at 9:04 pm

#39 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.13.17 at 7:35 pm

So, if I understand correctly, you don’t like realtors? I just wanted to make sure. Is it a small dislike or an all out hate on? Again, after reading your comments for a while, I’m still not 100% clear.

I think you may need some professional help. Breath in, breath out. Repeat many times over until you stop seeing spots.

LOL

#70 Ian on 09.13.17 at 9:05 pm

I have always suspected that rollover in GTA inventory on Zolo was pulled listings, not anything bullish.

Happy Stress Test!!

Happy two BoC days before Christmas!!

I love it.

#71 acdel on 09.13.17 at 9:12 pm

Garth always appreciate your educating posts!

Seriously people how do you not get this?? Wages have not risen in par of the so called little inflation although any of us that have to pay our daily bills or buy groceries understand on how much of a farce this is..

It’s like the movie stars that have some of the largest carbon foot prints in the world preaching to us on how we should all donate what little cash we have left to support all the pour souls that were devastated by hurricanes, fires and all natural disasters; meanwhile, in our of lifetime, incomes would not even come close to what they make in a year. Hey, good on them, but stop the preaching; hypocrites!!

My point is that there is so many shysters out there that do not have an once of guilt preying on so many unfortunates or the reality greedy souls that really could give a sh*t!! Well, I could not personally give a sh*t about you!! You reap what you sow!!

#72 nico on 09.13.17 at 9:17 pm

Can’t wait to see the mid month stats. You posting them here again Garth?

#73 Pete from St. Cesaire on 09.13.17 at 9:19 pm

I suggest that those people who currently have found themselves to be at ruin’s door, facing a lifetime of debilitating debt servicing due to their purchase of a house that is currently depreciating at a high rate (i.e. the Greatest Fools) should start bankruptcy proceedings sooner rather than later. The collapsing of the housing bubble will certainly cause a crisis with the banks and the economy in general and it would be expected that the government will change the rules concerning bankruptcy vis-a-vis one’s mortgage. The way I see things playing out is this; when the crisis hits, the government will make it impossible to declare bankruptcy on mortgages (just as they have done with student loans) claiming that it’s for your own good since people will still need shelter and a city full of empty, forclosed houses is in no one’s interest. The Feds will enforce their own soultion where they will pay off your mortgage to the bank (this will be the bank bailout but it won’t be called that of course) but the government will then own your home. Don’t think that the govt can’t afford this; they will work out a way through money printing or the promise of future money printing allowing the banks to clear these bad debts off of their books right now. At this point it goes full commie, the govt will tell people that now they must continue to live in that house and pay rent to the govt (based on what you are deemed able to afford, so some people might like this solution of living in a million dollar house for the cost of renting an apartment) but if you move out you must repay the whole amount that the govt paid for the house. That way they can control where people live; they have long wanted to force people to live in urban areas and this would fit the bill nicely. There would probably be a way to have an exception made for high earners in high-demand fields who get transferred to another city (through a govt owned house swap with another family moving in the other direction). So in conclusion, if you want to unburden yourself from a lifetime of debt and retain your ability to move around as you choose you’d better get on with the bankruptcy proceedings, the government has shown us time and time again they simply change the rules to fit the crisis of the moment.

#74 New Era on 09.13.17 at 9:20 pm

I am surprised now real estate agents have started knocking door-to-door and asking for their services. This was not happening before and I see the increase in the door-to-door visits. Happy housing crash.

One thing more, they are also asking people showing their interest in selling/buying and they will do everything to make it happen (forget the laws and ethical issues).

#75 Smoking Man on 09.13.17 at 9:23 pm

Listings exploding again.

#76 Linda on 09.13.17 at 9:27 pm

Ah, so it is different in the GTA.

Regarding the pension issue, unless all the people mentioned do not qualify for CPP/OAS they do have a pension & in the case of CPP a DB pension at that. Though I for one would not want to try to live on ‘just’ CPP/OAS/GIS. Though not a few financial planners are now recommending that people work to age 70 to qualify for enhanced CPP – plus working longer means more time to build a nest egg or at least pay off debt. Of course, first you have to find (& keep) a job…..

…and not die. — Garth

#77 acdel on 09.13.17 at 9:30 pm

#60 Rexx Rock

Ok, I will bite, where is the money going to come from in the future 17 yrs when mom and dad are broke or dead? Well?? Let me guess!!!

#78 40 something family man on 09.13.17 at 9:33 pm

#25 Millenials

You poor naive child, TO prices to be supported by “investment & influx of new citizens”.. what are you smoking kid?

Investment thesis was just blown up! Since Apr, interest rates up 100% and will rise another 100% into 2018. Stress tests, drop in avg sales price, no buyers, etc

As for “influx of new citizens”, realtors have been using this point till their faces turn blue.. let me ask you something, what is the projected annual growth rate of GTA population over the next 25 years? Drum roll please……. range of 0.8% to 1.8%!!!! So, if we have stagnant wages, and a 1% growth rate in population, what is driving price growth? SPECULATION

Foreign buyers speculate, but they are 5% to 7% of Van & TO markets, the rest of it is people binging on cheap debt as per Garth, and that debt is more expensive and harder to get!

#79 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 09.13.17 at 9:51 pm

Let’s all stop volunteering and donating any after tax money to anything. Just Stop. Let the T2 government take care of everything.

#80 Jon on 09.13.17 at 9:54 pm

So they say the houses will average 1% growth per year… that means they think the prices will stop soon going down? So where would this bring us? 2016?

That’s a national number. Some markets will of course decline while others do not. — Garth

#81 Willy H on 09.13.17 at 9:55 pm

Moody’s Analytics is still predicting just under a 10% average year over year price increase in T.O. for 2017 through 2019 for detached homes.

WTF!

Certainly tame growth compared to prior years but not shabby by any means. Not much of a crash if this transpires in Hog Town over the next 2 years!

Astonishing considering recent (and projected) rate increases and the fact that OSFI’s Cone-of-Shame is about to be tightly fitted over many a mortgagor preventing Millennials and Greater Fool’s from doing even more financial self-harm.

Cone-of-Shame:
https://giphy.com/gifs/disney-dog-up-hURsrHYlao1Ko

Moody’s Analytics
http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/new-report-suggests-to-get-ready-for-several-years-of-housing-retrenchment-nationally-with-toronto-bucking-the-trend

#82 Lead Paint on 09.13.17 at 10:01 pm

#43 -=jwk=- on 09.13.17 at 7:47 pm

The assault is on all small businesses, not just the fake ones, *that* is the problem.

“ I’d point out that Canada is at lowest unemployment numbers in a generation and we’d like to keep it that way.”

I like your addition – this is with the tax code as it is, before the Trust Twins started attacking *all* small businesses. Wait and see what your socialist paradise will bring… no one to pay your bloated pension.

#83 Lead Paint on 09.13.17 at 10:11 pm

#45 Dolce Vita on 09.13.17 at 7:49 pm

Thank you. I’ve poured my life savings in to this business for 10 years, we have clients around the world selling a product invented and funded by yours truly.

But even if they ‘fix’ the proposed changes, it will be too late for me to continue to invest in business in Canada. We’ve seen what they are all about, turning the masses against ‘elites’ like me, who has a far less retirement security than my much younger sister-in-law who works for the city.

Small business in Canada… you take all the risk, the populace feels entitled to the reward, stoked on by the Liberal Party of Canada.

My wife’s cousin recently finished dentist school and bought a practice in a small town in Alberta. He must be at least a half a million dollars in debt now, has staff, has competition, I’m not sure why he is not considered a business.

The Liberals have turned Canadians against each other for no good reason, it’s certainly not what I voted for, I won’t make this mistake ever again.

#84 False Sense of Financial Security on 09.13.17 at 10:13 pm

If what happened in 2008 is happening today -Homeowners are pooched.

Back then – some lenders were accepting interest only payments to keep mortgages alive and people in their homes instead of foreclosing and adding the missed $ amounts due on top of the balance due every month. Sooner or later the game ends and the lenders get the properties back they lent on and go after the borrowers for money still owed on the original mortgage. Reality Bites.

#85 New or Old on 09.13.17 at 10:17 pm

What about the cost of new builds? Are those at risk of a correction too, or is it alread just the cost of labour and materials? I know a few people who have signed on to build a house early next year…

#86 Stone Cold on 09.13.17 at 10:23 pm

I have been trying some mind-reading of what the Government guys are trying. They seem to have made the decision that the only way out of this debt mess is to increase the inflation. That’s why minimum wage increase -> snow-ball into higher costs -> passed on to the consumers -> make it seem as if the economy is growing -> justify increasing the interest rates. It seems like a very delicate way to make the plane land without crashing so that inflation and wage growth leads before debt servicing burden starts biting more with increased interest rates. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

#87 Leo Trollstoy on 09.13.17 at 10:23 pm

Become a cop. Get paid!

http://nypost.com/2017/09/13/200000-cops-why-ny-property-taxes-keep-soaring/

#88 M-cube on 09.13.17 at 10:29 pm

Alex Prikhodko? who the hell is this guy? and why should his opinion matter?

Moody’s? the same lying club that helped blow up the US economy?

With references like these, I should charge you my hourly rate for reading this blog

#89 Lead Paint on 09.13.17 at 10:32 pm

And for the record, I haven’t used any of the so called ‘loopholes’. I didn’t know they existed, I was too busy building and inventing, and never made enough profit to warrant exploring them (I kept plowing earnings back in to new hires and R&D).

But now that we’re on the receiving end of the Liberals’ insults and class warfare baiting, I know it’s time to reconsider investing any further, and that this country is no longer a safe environment to start or grow a business.

#90 Rainman on 09.13.17 at 10:47 pm

It’s different in Squamish.. lol

#91 Notagreaterfool on 09.13.17 at 10:59 pm

Can anybody share sept. mid month sales volumes and prices in Sept for the 416?

#92 Chris on 09.13.17 at 11:01 pm

Living in the land of Trump, hurricane and solar eclipse. Picture could be brighter. Is it that bad in Toronto?Maybe I should come back and buy a house.

#93 Smoking Man on 09.13.17 at 11:04 pm

Why I now believe in God now.

There is a high probability this post will get deleted, most of my deleted posts have a urinal in it.
So, I’m betting hard, 2700 in my slot machine. Jack Daniels makes the body numb. Not realizing there is a crisis with my bladder, I keep hitting max bet. Suddenly, I realize I should have worn a diaper. I leave the machine and do a wobble jog toward the rest room. I’m thinking I’m not making it. I unzip from 10 feet away. Every drop into the urinal, I scan the floor no drops and I start thinking this should be an Olympic sport.

I can’t find my slot machine for 15 minutes, I finally find it. Two black southern dudes with weird tattoos on either side of my slot machine. Immediately I think they cashed out my loot. Nope, it’s all there. That’s my little racism kicking in. The boys were beauties, they saw me struggling, knew I was in trouble and protected my slot machine.

White privilege kicked in. You know the guy on a major globalist shit list who has been unemployable for talking logic hit the cash out button.

I gave it to the black dudes. They would not take it.

Racism only exists in universities. With teachers who jog without purpose. Like why?

Love the southern black trump supporters, and there is a shit load of them. MSM you’re so done.

My new friend’s names are Hector and Jackob. I want to meet Hector’s mom. Nise Eyes.

#94 MF on 09.13.17 at 11:06 pm

#82 Lead Paint on 09.13.17 at 10:11 pm

First person to admit he voted Liberal in the last election. Ballsy and, sorry, but a real dumb move.

Even more so because you are a business owner. You have yourself to blame for these pathetic policies.

Ignore this Dolce “ex pat” and all the others who come here to rip on the entire country. Everyone’s a real superstar.

Anyways, dont make the same mistake again and let’s try to get the communist Libs out next election. Spread the word amongst the business community.

MF

#95 Check Again on 09.13.17 at 11:09 pm

#60 Rexx Rock on 09.13.17 at 8:39 pm
Yes GTA will suffer and YVR and Victoria will slow down in sales and appreciation for a few years until the central bank and goverment stoke the housing like they did the last 17 years.Still booming like there is no tommorrow here in Victoria.Come and see,drive around around and you will be amazed.Like Langford where they give out building permits like candy!
——–

Oh Rexy Girl,you do love your fiction! All the real data points to slowing and declining sales, and declining prices.

http://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/victoria-home-prices-drop-for-first-time-in-two-years-1.3574598

And Langford is churning out the development permits because its like Mission – the last bastion of affordability for people that cannot afford Victoria proper.

They are just happy anyone wants to live there and know that the gravy train will end sometime soon…

#96 MF on 09.13.17 at 11:13 pm

#73 New Era on 09.13.17 at 9:20 pm

Not a new practice. My parents have had realtors knocking on the door of their Vaughan house since I was a kid in the 90’s. A house they bought for 270k all cash in 1993. Imagine that!

MF

#97 knock knock, whose there? your honest realtor. on 09.13.17 at 11:22 pm

couple sold signs went up.
dumb coworker just bought a 2600 sqft 40′ lot for 1.44m in north woodbridge. ****er was so ****ing happy that his agent pulled one on the seller. the gullible moron thinks he got deal because it was listed for 1.69m 2months ago.

#98 Bob Dog on 09.13.17 at 11:29 pm

I’m wondering why the Canadian public does not have access to home price history from first sale. The information exists and is held by city records.

I can look up the value of any corporation.

Who benefits from hiding this information?

#99 Smoking Man on 09.13.17 at 11:29 pm

Got a byick

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPMXt9Me_Fo

#100 Fuzzy Camel on 09.13.17 at 11:33 pm

The psychological factor still hasn’t fully hit home. Most home owners still think their oriented strand board palace should get top dollar. They are still pricing like it was 8 months ago. It’s not.

Resales are sitting, no one can afford to buy at the current prices. A few more rate hikes will drive home the fact that the torrid price appreciation is over.

I suspect next year, late 2018, we will see the psychological factor of fear start to manifest. That’s when the spec’ers get desperate and start to slash prices and dump.

Right now, no fear, just clueless confused dreamers.

#101 45north on 09.13.17 at 11:46 pm

Investx: This slow melt is pretty fast, Garth.

good summary. The fall in prices and sales in the GTA is as fast as anything I’ve read about in the States.

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.13.17 at 11:53 pm

150 anniversary of “Das Kapital” hitting the bookstores.
Still very relevant today.

#103 Long-Time Lurker on 09.13.17 at 11:57 pm

#256 conan on 09.13.17 at 12:30 pm

LOL @ Zoolander. T2 does not look like that guy at all.

https://giphy.com/gifs/12npFVlmZoXN4Y

Watch the movie. Compare and contrast their characters not their looks.

#31 What has this become on 09.13.17 at 7:11 pm

Since when did this become the zero site? Suddenly doom and gloom is all Garth can put out. Only recently he was touting how the correction would be a slow melt not a crash, and now that we’ve had a ‘crash’ (really just a reversal of the past year’s spike), it’s time to stock up on canned tuna and ammo? C’mon Garth, things aren’t that dire. People are returning to buy. It isn’t April, but it isn’t May either. Balance – I’m not a realtor, I’m not a doomer – I’m a rare breed called a critical thinker. One that, you know – actually listens to both sides of an argument and draws his own conclusions. One who isn’t left or right, or pro or con, but follows the data. Not cherry-picks it to suit their argument. You’re finally right about a correction after umpteen years – feels like you’re getting on your soapbox to do your victory lap. “See, I told you all I was right!”.. yeesh..

You provided no rebuttals to any of Garth’s argumentive points. Care to share? Ad Ignorantium.

1. C’mon Garth, things aren’t that dire. Rebuttal: Probable interest rate increases. OFSI stress test. Canadian debt levels.

2. People are returning to buy. Rebuttal: Sales down. Listings up.

3. I’m a rare breed called a critical thinker. Reply: Please outline your critical thinking process and findings.

4. One that, you know – actually listens to both sides of an argument and draws his own conclusions. Reply: Please present both sides of the argument and your conclusions.

5. One who isn’t left or right, or pro or con, but follows the data. Reply: Please provide the data.

6. Not cherry-picks it to suit their argument. Reply: You provide no factual evidence to support your argument.

From the above, I conclude that you have something to lose from the downturn of the real estate market thus your posting.

Welcome to The Greater Fool comments section.

Garth and Smokey. Thanks for the laughs since my last post. (Garth –always. Smokey –the hottest woman I’d ever seen….)

Thanks to the other regular posters as well.

#104 Smoking Man on 09.14.17 at 12:05 am

I Smoke in every non-smoking room I’m booked in.

I’m the Smoking Man. God, now that I think you’re real please send all teachers and liberals into my room after I check out.

#105 NoName on 09.14.17 at 12:10 am

@flop

its kind of demoralizing to sea that Homer is making more money than me…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5MOatu5-DE

#106 april on 09.14.17 at 12:11 am

#94 – This ” churning out” you write about shows buildings that sold out 2/3 yrs ago and only now after all permits etc have been ok’d can developers start building. People who don’t know what’s really going on are deluded into thinking the boom will never end.

#107 Tony on 09.14.17 at 12:29 am

Re: #36 Raj on 09.13.17 at 7:18 pm

The odds of that happening are zero. The most likely scenario is mortgage rates will decrease not increase. They’re holding off on the OSFI stress test but when mortgage rates start falling later this year they’ll implement it to counterbalance the increase in home prices from falling mortgage rates.

#108 will on 09.14.17 at 12:29 am

Thank god it’s finally here. Great to be liquid and renting.

#109 Smoking Man on 09.14.17 at 12:30 am

My dogs are going to see Bourbon street tomorrow. Beads and all.

After all, it’s a savage road trip for my puppies,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sB3Fjw3Uvc

#110 Phil McCrackin on 09.14.17 at 12:33 am

“banking guidelines that will require all house buyers seeking a mortgage to bend over and take a stress test” GT

Garth is this otherwise known as taking one for the team?

#111 Tony on 09.14.17 at 12:42 am

Re: #99 Fuzzy Camel on 09.13.17 at 11:33 pm

You must be the same Fuzzy Camel from youtube.
Here’s peak house and peak dreamer. This house wouldn’t pull 100 grand in America in the middle of nowhere just where this house is listed.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18442844/18947-MCCOWAN-RD-East-Gwillimbury-Ontario-L0G1M0-Rural-East-Gwillimbury

Present market value $500,000 to $525,000.

#112 Rabbit One on 09.14.17 at 12:43 am

New rules in last few years, in my opinion, loosens lending standard in a large point.

1: Rental income counted 100% towards TDS / GDS
(used to be 50%)
This will give borrowers tens or hundreds of thousands of more mortgage money

2: Mortgage vacation – widely advertised by TD. Not any more now.
Sweet advertisement, spend more time with your kids, enjoy one in a life time trip, just skip mortgage payment a few times.

Used to be not that casual, 3rd skipped payment was an inch to a “final notice letter”.

3: Not to do with mortgage rules, but in B.C., strata can dissolve with 80% of owners’ agreement.
(used to be 100%)
– all in favor for developers

As for the higher short term rates,
HELOC users will be in big trouble soon.
Although most of the HELOC outstanding money can be switched to “fixed rate” from variable rates, the biggest impact will be payment must be amortized on fixed rate portion.

Fixed rates are higher than variable to begin with, also you have to pay principal in monthly payment, that will be easily double of what you pay now on HELOC interest only payment.

#113 concerned cpa on 09.14.17 at 12:56 am

Off topic for today but on topic for last few days – just finished listening to a professional development seminar briefing CPAs on the ‘proposed’ tax changes. I’m not a tax specialist by any means but the long reaching ramifications of the proposals are set to make for numerous ugly protracted legal battles and a tremendous waste of financial and professional resources – all at taxpayer expense.

The CPAs presenting the info session are actually experienced experts in the tax code and they are dumbfounded by the ridiculously complex approach being taken and the tremendous potential for collateral damage and abuse by CRA (which is becoming increasingly militant and unreasonable in their assessments and rulings). Long story short, there are hidden clauses for small business estate tax, no corresponding changes to public corps, just ccpc’s (so begs question as to why not just become a penny stock corp?), lots more goodies to be concerned about. Anyone with a corp and decent accountant is looking at a few extra hours of expensive billing just to sort through how this mess affects you.

Wish I could share the actual audio of the presentation but will anonymously post the pdf’s of the info – fun reading…

https://www.amazon.com/clouddrive/share/uElkrvc7ClwR8xga7c2qT4hJvSxvZz0r9BZ5x54RVuh

#114 Smoking Man on 09.14.17 at 12:58 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKaQzQAlNn4&index=28&list=RDlroU7apzma8

good night !!!!!!!

#115 best place on earth on 09.14.17 at 1:31 am

TORONTO – Ontario’s capital has yet again been voted the greatest city in the world by those who’ve never stepped foot outside its borders.

“It’s not only the fashion capital of the world, it’s also the mecca of all art and commerce,” said Mike Howard, a man completely unaware of Paris, London, or New York. “We all know that Toronto is the City of Lights. The Big Apple. Foggy ole’ Toronto town.”

“Where else can you find a city that’s transit system is a mixture of 1930’s rail cars and the mine chase from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom,” remarked Mayor John Tory as he watched citizens board a shuttle bus due to ongoing subway track repairs. “It’s truly world class, if you don’t think about any other major city in the developed world.”

This is the fifth year in a row that people who consider driving north of Bloor Street a “road trip” have declared Toronto the greatest place to live, out of the hundreds of more qualified cities across the globe.

“A hot dog vendor on every corner. That’s what makes this city so special,” said Laura Ferguson, who once missed a school trip to Chicago because of strep throat. “Plus, I just found a wonderful 8’ by 8’ storage shed in Riverdale that’s only 800 thousand. What a city!”

“Why would I want to go anyplace else when Toronto is where so many films are shot,” declared Susan Lewis, an agoraphobic homemaker. “Sure, none of those movies are supposed to take place in this city, but you can still tell it’s Toronto because of the streetcars in the background. And I think that’s pretty impressive.”

Not to be outdone by Toronto, Vancouver was just voted the best place to live by shadow investors from mainland China.

#116 n1tro on 09.14.17 at 1:35 am

Moody’s, S&P, other rating agencies and their “analysis”…..

Before the great financial crisis the bad derivatives were triple A rated by these guys after their “analysis”.

When taken to court to explain why such ratings were given, S&P claimed its ratings reports were mere marketing “puffery” that no investor should take seriously as a defence.

No joke.

https://www.intheblack.com/articles/2015/08/01/can-credit-rating-agencies-win-back-the-public

#117 Midnights on 09.14.17 at 1:52 am

Good read…
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/canadas-hunt-for-taxes-trudeaus-destruction-of-the-canadian-economy/

#118 Pete from St. Cesaire on 09.14.17 at 2:12 am

I suspect next year, late 2018, we will see the psychological factor of fear start to manifest. That’s when the spec’ers get desperate and start to slash prices and dump. Right now, no fear, just clueless confused dreamers.
—————————————————————–
That’s right. Not everybody reads this blog. Most people still don’t know what’s happening. The press isn’t saying, and when they do they promise a resurgence of sales in the near future. When folks finally find out they they’re done for, it’ll be like watching junkies frantic to get their next fix. That ‘fix’ will be getting out with whatever they can get for their houses. Remember that this is a generation of fools that can’t stand being on the losing side of anything. They’ll shriek and panic and flee from this losing proposition either through fire-sale, race to the bottom pricing or bankruptcy. They won’t be able to handle the stress of being around the constant reminder of how spectacularly they failed and the preceived ‘stigma’ that will accompany it.

#119 Reality 1 on 09.14.17 at 3:09 am

to # 82 Lead Paint

Sincere questions :

Why would you, as a successful business founder /owner, have voted for the Liberals in the last election ?

What was it in their platform / promises / proposed policies that led you to vote for them ?

Do you think they have enacted any of what you voted for? Is any of it in your / your business’s favour ?

I have been asking anyone who has admitted to me as voting Liberal these questions.

The majority indicate that they did not take into account their own personal situation and how it might be affected by Liberal policies or who would pay for them.

#120 Midnights on 09.14.17 at 3:23 am

Interesting…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-13/oh-canada-reflections-economic-experiment

#121 Reality 1 on 09.14.17 at 3:27 am

to # 96 knock knock, who’s there

It’s called “catching a falling knife”.

In a few months they will find out how severe the lacerations are.

#122 Reality 1 on 09.14.17 at 4:21 am

Canadians are being played for ignorant fools because they largely are ignorant fools – ignorant of true socialism and history.

The Liberals squander public resources (by running up unproductive debt) while distracting Canadians with inflamatory social issues / virtue signalling / pc culture as they covertly steal the ‘freedoms’ and ‘wealth’ that our forefathers spent a century establishing.

What kind of country do you think Canadians will be left (pun intended) with ?

Go read Karl Marx and Saul Alinsky for the socialist game plan and end game details.

A people who are being self enslaved by their willful ignorance and by their own (voting) hands.

Truly a sad state of affairs.

#123 Millennial falcon on 09.14.17 at 6:08 am

Is there any news about how the b-20 changes well affect those renewing their mortgages?

#124 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 09.14.17 at 6:58 am

I think 60% is a very light assumption…..given today’s release of average wages…..in Vancouver for ex…..working families average $71,000….and an average house is still well over a million…..math doesn’t work at 60%…..try 75% with long term mean reversion as a base line. You think this blog has called the macro wrong by years? So what…..the macros a bitch to time….but as a dead set lock on long term planning…..it’s right every time….it just takes longer than most people can handle. Real estate is the countries most crowded trade…..the panicked masses are pushing enmasse through a narrow doorway….. The usual drivers will burst the dam of expectations…..court ordered sales….divorce….death….transfer…..unemployment….going to jail…..ageing out…etc etc etc……those sales at market will dragged the entire sales complex down.

Yes….we had a problem with HSM…..it couldn’t be dpiken of in detail for politicsl reasons……but those figures are flattening out….for a variety of regulatory reasons……and importantly China closing the Bitcoin loophole of transferring illegal cash out with any scrutiny. Crooks are hitting the wall I hear…..with no where nice to go any more. The unregulated market might see a surge in property sales in Tajikistan or Bolivia…..but Canada’s ports is getting ever smaller. And in spite of the 1.5 million mainland Chinese who have used to the ten year Visa to skirt tax laws and buy real estate through proxies…..that is still a small number in the face of the number of transactions nationally. There will he pockets where HAM is still very active…..like Richmond BC for ex…..but that won’t translates nationally.

Larger population centers….like Vancouver and Toronto will dilute the effects of HAM and mean reversion will occur except for local pockets. I think the new taxation regimes will kill of the market for several years. I hope you’re not one of those who holds too much. debt. By the time this market corrects back rates will likely be triple and more of where we are today.

#125 Reality 1 on 09.14.17 at 8:04 am

The BOC, CMHC and OSFI loosened credit conditions way past anything resembling prudent practices to the point of consumer DEBT SATURATION.

After ascertaining this level of debt had been attained from informal consultations with the banks (who were now nervous and essentially refused to lend much further into this ultra loose environment), they acted with new policies.

These policies will essentially corral those hapless and hopelessly indebted consumers for harvesting their future income streams by raising rates (to improve the banks lending margins) and restricting lending (to protect the system’s balance sheet).

The result is a country with a substantial group of near debt (over-indebted) slaves that will have to “fall in line” or their ‘consumer lifestyle’ will unravel.

Those insecure consumers, who conflate their over-consumption habits with their sense of self worth, will be good little sheep so as not to risk an existential crisis. And they will be easily led to demonize those that they think are “rich” and call for them to be fleeced as well.

The average person, like all serfs throughout history, will be unable to save capital or form businesses to change their situation (in this instance due to punitive taxation, inflation and diminished opportunities).

The conquest of Canada by socialism and the subjugation of its’ population to debt in less than one generation.

These Liberals move fast.

Gerald Butts must be so satisfied that he has reversed erased the ‘hurtful conditions’ that he is convinced was the proximate cause of his childhood deprivation.

Canada has / is becoming a nightmare on many levels – certainly not what I was brought up on.

#126 maxx on 09.14.17 at 8:27 am

#6 crdt on 09.13.17 at 6:26 pm

“You are richer then you think…. uh oops..”

To the fools who also swallowed “Banking can be this comfortable” and borrowed to “Make your someday happen” in order to help junior, speculate or impress……….you have my sympathies.
Mmmmm….not really.

The suit on the other side of the desk is never, ever your friend. That also means TNLATB. Smiles, coffee, Perrier or lunch at an exclusive club DO NOT equate to “trustworthy friend”, but rather profit. Business is essentially war with a friendly face, bright colours and a legal structure which largely works in its favor.

I’m grateful for the business-induced hard knocks I got as a teenager. They taught me just what the nature of business is. It is, and always has been, a battleground, where focus on obtaining real value transforms the buyer into a persona non grata. Cheap. Skinflint. Insert your own adjective.

The day the average Joe finally sees and accepts that his financial affairs are a bona fide business is the day the game changes.

#127 CJBob on 09.14.17 at 8:39 am

#88 Lead Paint on 09.13.17 at 10:32 pm
And for the record, I haven’t used any of the so called ‘loopholes’. I didn’t know they existed, I was too busy building and inventing, and never made enough profit to warrant exploring them (I kept plowing earnings back in to new hires and R&D).

But now that we’re on the receiving end of the Liberals’ insults and class warfare baiting, I know it’s time to reconsider investing any further, and that this country is no longer a safe environment to start or grow a business.
______________
So to clarify, if you aren’t using the loophole that is being closed then there is absolutely no impact on your business. None at all.

And yet you are telling your employees they won’t be getting a raise because of the changes and you are up in arms because they hurt your feelings?

Just a guess but I don’t think you are about to become the next Warren Buffet either way.

#128 Lead Paint on 09.14.17 at 8:45 am

#118 Reality 1 on 09.14.17 at 3:09 am
to # 82 Lead Paint

Sincere questions :

Why would you, as a successful business founder /owner, have voted for the Liberals in the last election ?
——————

I knew I was voting against my own financial interest but in the interest of national unity (ironically)… Wedge issues around him barbaric cultural practises etc. I also want to see the planet left in decent shape for my daughter.

That’s my sincere answer to your sincere question!

#129 nick on 09.14.17 at 8:55 am

#84 New or Old on 09.13.17 at 10:17 pm

New will generally be worth more than old. That being said, new builds are hilariously overpriced as well. Once the resale market comes back to reality, nobody is going to pay double for a new build with a 2yr lead time over an existing home they can move into today.

#130 MF on 09.14.17 at 9:07 am

118 Reality 1 on 09.14.17 at 3:09

The men voted because Harper was “mean”.

Women based their vote on nothing but how he looks (serious).

MF

#131 Howard on 09.14.17 at 9:51 am

#127 Lead Paint on 09.14.17 at 8:45 am
#118 Reality 1 on 09.14.17 at 3:09 am
to # 82 Lead Paint

Sincere questions :

Why would you, as a successful business founder /owner, have voted for the Liberals in the last election ?
——————

I also want to see the planet left in decent shape for my daughter.

That’s my sincere answer to your sincere question!

——————————–

I assume you’re referring to climate religion.

Did you know that the Liberals under Chretien/Martinhad a worse record on greenhouse gases than George W. Bush?

Great choice of party to “save the planet”!

#132 Iconoclast on 09.14.17 at 9:53 am

People are complaining about the “first” posts again.

I think people complaining about “first” posts are worse than the “first” posts themselves.

Furthermore, people complaining about people complaining about “first” posts are the worst ones of all.

Never mind the predicted people complaining about the people complaining about the people complaining…

…oh never mind.

#133 Penny Henny on 09.14.17 at 9:54 am

#34 Insider INfo on 09.13.17 at 7:17 pm
Somebody had posted a link a few months back that showed the sold price of all homes in the gta.

The website is down…does anyone know where else know where to get the info now?
/////////////

i’d tell you, but it seems that every time I Mention a site with that infO it gets shut dowN. GO on google Have a lOok aroUnd, SEe what’s there.

hope that helps

#134 Howard on 09.14.17 at 9:58 am

#114 best place on earth on 09.14.17 at 1:31 am
TORONTO – Ontario’s capital has yet again been voted the greatest city in the world by those who’ve never stepped foot outside its borders.

“It’s not only the fashion capital of the world, it’s also the mecca of all art and commerce,” said Mike Howard, a man completely unaware of Paris, London, or New York. “We all know that Toronto is the City of Lights. The Big Apple. Foggy ole’ Toronto town.”

“Where else can you find a city that’s transit system is a mixture of 1930’s rail cars and the mine chase from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom,” remarked Mayor John Tory as he watched citizens board a shuttle bus due to ongoing subway track repairs. “It’s truly world class, if you don’t think about any other major city in the developed world.”

This is the fifth year in a row that people who consider driving north of Bloor Street a “road trip” have declared Toronto the greatest place to live, out of the hundreds of more qualified cities across the globe.

“A hot dog vendor on every corner. That’s what makes this city so special,” said Laura Ferguson, who once missed a school trip to Chicago because of strep throat. “Plus, I just found a wonderful 8’ by 8’ storage shed in Riverdale that’s only 800 thousand. What a city!”

“Why would I want to go anyplace else when Toronto is where so many films are shot,” declared Susan Lewis, an agoraphobic homemaker. “Sure, none of those movies are supposed to take place in this city, but you can still tell it’s Toronto because of the streetcars in the background. And I think that’s pretty impressive.”

Not to be outdone by Toronto, Vancouver was just voted the best place to live by shadow investors from mainland China.

————————–

I see the “Mayor of Milton” has moved to Toronto! :)

Your description of smug know-nothing airheads applies to many Canadian urbanites, in Toronto and elsewhere. Living in Europe, I walk in the opposite direction whenever I see one of those backpacks with the maple leaf stitched to it.

#135 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.14.17 at 10:09 am

#132 Penny Henny on 09.14.17 at 9:54 am
#34 Insider INfo on 09.13.17 at 7:17 pm
Somebody had posted a link a few months back that showed the sold price of all homes in the gta.

The website is down…does anyone know where else know where to get the info now?
/////////////

i’d tell you, but it seems that every time I Mention a site with that infO it gets shut dowN. GO on google Have a lOok aroUnd, SEe what’s there.

___________________________________

The dirty shysters hate information and especially information in the hands of the public. It’s harder for the dirty evil shysters to lie when facts are in the hands of the public. The government Has to shut them down. I suggest we all email everybody upto T2 and let them know shysters have got to go.

#136 WUL on 09.14.17 at 10:11 am

Those nice spring numbers in the Calgary detached single family homes data were a head fake. Half way through September now and the picture darkens. New listings up big. Median and average prices dropping. Of course, year to date still positive but being whittled downward every day. Last week, average sale prices for single family detached were down 9.5% ’17/’16 for the same week.

Must be the poor air quality wafting over the Rockies from the Smokeanagan in BC keeping prospective purchasers indoors.

#137 Taxed on 09.14.17 at 10:34 am

An American prof telling like it is…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/canadas-tax-on-being-american-1505171378

#138 Fall RE Market? up or down on 09.14.17 at 10:35 am

RE: #134 Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

Penny, try these.
https://toronto.listing.ca/detached-home-price-history.htm

http://www.mongohouse.com/soldrecords?location=43.60503653381157,-79.51648132383423&zoom=14&sold_day_back=365

Gone for about a week now…too bad:
http://watch.ohmyhome.ca/#/HouseSold

Happy Housing Crash suggestion:
I suggest we all email everybody upto T2 and let them know shysters have got to go.
…Please start a petition instead and get everyone to sign up if you can. I want to see you on the MSM ranting and raving….lol

#139 Reality 1 on 09.14.17 at 10:51 am

to # 129 MF

Do you think so ?

I thought it was more young people voting that went for the delusional “fairness and sunny ways” and the prospect of legalized pot – you know the things that would really and substantially build the future of the country.

sarc /

#140 TJ on 09.14.17 at 10:56 am

Quick question for the blog dogs or Garth.

I’m one of the deplorable business owners who mistakenly thought I could build wealth by owning a business in Canada. (Big mistake. Won’t happen again, trust me.) Is there any chance this 73% tax rate on retained earnings investment will apply to the current year? Any changes they make will kick in next year right?

#141 Reality 1 on 09.14.17 at 11:09 am

to # 128 Lead Paint
to # 129 MF

Thank you very muchfor your answers.

Perhaps others could add their own reasoning / rationale for voting Liberal if they have the courage to comment as you two have.

This is not a trick question – I think it will help us all to understand how we got here / the government that we did.

Anybody else ?

#142 Keith on 09.14.17 at 11:14 am

Vancouver condo sales in August:

Average price 800k +
Price per square foot $1012
Sales to listing ratio 65%

http://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver-condo-report-august-2017/

#143 IHCTD9 on 09.14.17 at 11:24 am

More thought experiments:

If the Libs are finding massive support in stripping wealth off small family business, while realizing they could stuff this revenue directly into their personal trust funds for all Canadians care what happens to it – then where do they stop?

Would they go after the life savings of a working stiff via RRSP and TFSA policy changes?

I bet they would.

I’ve thought about what I could do about it, and there is really nothing that could be done. You could leave the country in protest, but your lifetime of effort and sacrifice would still be cashed in by the government instead of you.

Bottom feeders like SCM would be jumping up and down going apeshit in support something like this.

Think about it folks, you know damn well it’s possible given what Trudeau and Co. have been saying lately. You know the majority loves this stuff and T2 knows that they do.

If you’ve already thought about it, and time is still on your side, you already know the single road that exists to a born Canadian that allows him to both provide for themselves financial security, and to not be robbed without warning or debate.

If you are in a position to be concerned about this potential, I suggest you start running scenarios through your head and get planning.

#144 Lead Paint on 09.14.17 at 11:25 am

#126 CJBob on 09.14.17 at 8:39 am

Yes , after 10 years of reinvesting in this business it’s time to pay myself first and stop R&D in Canada just to hand over the proceeds to unimaginative trolls like yourself.

Being rich like Buffet was not my goal, building a good business was, that’s why I’m not pursuing value investing like he does, although I doubt you know much about anything based on your snide and useless comments.

Can’t compete with better funded Americans when jealous lobsters like yourself want to attack innovators in Canada.

#145 2009 again on 09.14.17 at 11:28 am

Re: 134 Happy Housing Crash Everyone
Why email T2 and crew. Those emails are so easy to ignore or slow to respond. Why don’t you petition them instead? Quit whining and do something. Go on TV with your signed petition. We’ll all be waiting for you to step up and do something. Tell your mom you won’t be coming upstairs for lunch today cause you have to starting your new school project petition. Good luck……lol

Meanwhile all the adults will be working for a living to pay for a roof over their heads, and yours.

#146 AGuyInVancouver on 09.14.17 at 11:37 am

#125 maxx – I’m less concerned with the big banks than with shadow lenders. On my way to work there’s a huge billboard for Amber Financial (mostly in Chinese). When you go to their website the About Us section just has some vague boilerplate, no mention of who they actually are. So who is regulating these outfits? What rates are they lending out at? Inquiring minds want to know!

#147 IHCTD9 on 09.14.17 at 11:43 am

#118 Reality 1 on 09.14.17 at 3:09 am
to # 82 Lead Paint

Sincere questions :

Why would you, as a successful business founder /owner, have voted for the Liberals in the last election ?

What was it in their platform / promises / proposed policies that led you to vote for them ?

Do you think they have enacted any of what you voted for? Is any of it in your / your business’s favour ?

I have been asking anyone who has admitted to me as voting Liberal these questions.

The majority indicate that they did not take into account their own personal situation and how it might be affected by Liberal policies or who would pay for them.
____________________________

I know a guy who owns a successful business with 40+ employees. If Adolph Hitler was reincarnated as the Leader of the Libs, this guy would vote for him. No matter who’s running the show, no matter what the policies are, he votes for them.

Not sure if he is aware all of what’s coming, but he does save and stash money in his corp, he does “hire” his wife and kids, he has done this for over a decade. It’s been a boon for him and he exploits all the legal perks owning a decent sized corp offers him under the watch of an excellent accounting firm.

It’ll be interesting to see what he does in 2019 – especially if the Libs decide to carve funds sitting in the corp retroactively which I believe would be a giant kick in the @ss for this guy.

#148 paracho on 09.14.17 at 11:54 am

Interesting times indeed.
I have a number of Real estate agents as ‘friends’ on social media. Their posts are interesting over the last few days .One famous realtor even says ‘ reduced price..great opportunity..get it before its gone !” all this in a single paragraph. Another realtor uses the term ‘ new price’ and another ‘great property at a discount’.
They can not hide it !

#149 Ogopogo on 09.14.17 at 12:07 pm

Want to see a realtor lie? Watch his lips move. Anything after the smarmy “Hello” is virtually guaranteed to be a falsehood.

Realtor: what you fall back on when you’ve failed at everything else.

#150 Bruce on 09.14.17 at 12:11 pm

#36 Raj – BoC Interest Rate increases

I will be shocked if the BoC raises rates again in October (3 for 3), let alone again in December. Not that I don’t agree that a return to normal interest rate levels isn’t required, away from very stimulative (especially with very spend happy Fed + Provinces gov’ts). I just have a hard time believing that dove Poloz would do it. Especially if it doesn’t look like the US fed would raise in October.

I know Garth thinks that rates will rise a full 1% point from here (or higher) in next 16 months, and while I agree that should happen, I just don’t see BoC doing it. My view is that should rates get to 1.5% (50 basis points above today), that this will be enough to start the long overdue correction in debt levels. Combined with the OFSI B-20 rule changes, it is likely to roll over the housing in GTA (if it is not already done).

Once housing starts to decline more & the growth numbers slow with less consumer debt spending /the start of feedback of both $14 min wage / tax increases, I think BoC will put the breaks on any rate increases.

Gotta kick the can down the road you know – it is all governments are good at.

#151 longterm on 09.14.17 at 12:12 pm

#10

And if you sold high and buried your cash in the equity markets, well, you are going to get whacked there soon enough.

i know what Garth would say to the above comment ;

1) 60/40 is balanced and not all in equities anyway

2) investing is long term . who cares what happens short term . only ever buy with this in mind .

#152 oopswediditagain on 09.14.17 at 12:19 pm

#122 Millennial falcon on 09.14.17 at 6:08 am
Is there any news about how the b-20 changes well affect those renewing their mortgages?
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Nothing has been in the news but it would appear that the Mortgage Professionals Canada know what OSFI’s intentions are by the tone of their submission.

https://mortgageproscan.ca/en/post/submission-to-osfi

“We also recommend consideration be given to individuals who currently hold mortgages. If a 200 basis point stress test is implemented above contract rate, and rates do in fact rise over their term, many may no longer qualify for a renewal. They will see an artificial 200 basis point increase over their actual interest rate increase. We recommend that mortgage renewals be permitted to qualify at their contract rate without an additional stress test. Similarly, an exception to the qualification should be made for individuals who port their mortgage because they move mid-term and do not increase, or reduce, the outstanding loan amount.”

#153 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.17 at 12:40 pm

#127 Lead Paint on 09.14.17 at 8:45 am
#118 Reality 1 on 09.14.17 at 3:09 am
to # 82 Lead Paint

Sincere questions :

Why would you, as a successful business founder /owner, have voted for the Liberals in the last election ?
——————

I knew I was voting against my own financial interest but in the interest of national unity (ironically)… Wedge issues around him barbaric cultural practises etc. I also want to see the planet left in decent shape for my daughter.

That’s my sincere answer to your sincere question!
———————–
Good to see that there are voters who actually see beyond the bottom line.
Unfortunately, far in between now.

#154 Victor V on 09.14.17 at 12:48 pm

Think your defined benefit pension is money in the bank? Think again

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/retirement/sears-defined-pension-plan-slap-a-reminder-that-savings-should-be-diversified

CALGARY — Sue Earl, a 38-year Sears Canada employee, was shocked when she found out she would only initially receive 81 per cent of the value of her pension as part of the company’s insolvency process.

The 64-year-old from Cobourg, Ont., had assumed her defined-benefit pension was “money in the bank,” a guaranteed amount she’d receive in retirement regardless of the financial health of the failing retailer.

But then, she also didn’t think Sears would cancel the severance payments she’d been receiving since her store was closed last year — that’s what happened after it filed for court protection from creditors in June.

#155 Ian on 09.14.17 at 12:54 pm

Send lawyers, guns and money…Bitcoin has hit the fan!

You bulls did sell of course correct? Like housing, you have to sell before the top to realise any gains…

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-ether-in-bear-market-territory-after-declines-2017-09-14

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-at-crossroads-after-shedding-nearly-20-billion-in-value-2017-09-13

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dimon-calls-bitcoin-a-fraud-and-may-have-delivered-the-biggest-blow-to-the-digital-currency-2017-09-12

#156 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.17 at 12:55 pm

BTC China is banning Bitcoin.
Hope you got out.

#157 Ian on 09.14.17 at 1:05 pm

GBTC is only down 50% in three trading sessions…

#158 Alistair McLaughlin on 09.14.17 at 1:27 pm

@#31 What has this become, An observation: People who refer to themselves as “a rare breed of critical thinker” are not rare and seldom critical thinkers. Critical thinkers know better than the brag about their own thinking skills; that’s what stupid people do.

For what it’s worth, you don’t sound like a critical thinker at all. You sound like a consensus thinker, who carefully listens to all sides before choosing the safest middle ground that is least likely to challenge or upset conventional wisdom.

Consensus thinkers are the inevitable result of the information overload that we live with in the modern world. While patting themselves on the back for not “cherry picking” data, and for “evidence-based decision-making”, they swallow – without digesting – any and all information coming their way. They end up with a blended and confusing mess of non-knowledge to inform their timid decisions. Good luck.

#159 paulo on 09.14.17 at 1:36 pm

Bitcoin and similar “crypto Currency’s” = PONZI SCHEME.

#160 jess on 09.14.17 at 1:55 pm

… shysters have got to go.” The Seychelles
and the imf loan?

“Around the world, offshore financial centers are often touted as economic engines that help small, resource-starved places improve themselves. But it is often a few well-connected locals — along with expatriate lawyers and accountants from the U.S., the U.K., Australia and other rich nations — who enjoy most of the profits.”
=============
..”Attorneys investigating Russia’s Magnitsky affair, for example, have alleged that mobsters and Russia government insiders stole $230 million out of that country’s treasury, using four Seychellois shell companies as part of the shadowy network that moved the money through Switzerland, Dubai and other locales. In November, the deputy speaker of Bulgaria’s parliament resigned as prosecutors announced they were investigating him and his stepson for tax crimes and money laundering after finding they had wired large sums through accounts in Europe and offshore companies in Seychelles. ”
7 charts that show how the rich hide their cash
By Amy Wilson-Chapman September 13, 2017, 3:00 am

https://www.icij.org/blog/2017/09/7-charts-show-how-rich-hide-their-cash

https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/conflict-diamonds/zimbabwe/inside-job/

#161 n1tro on 09.14.17 at 1:56 pm

#140 Reality 1 on 09.14.17 at 11:09 am

This is not a trick question – I think it will help us all to understand how we got here / the government that we did.

Anybody else ?
——————————-
I’ll bite. I voted for the liberal in my riding. Reasons in are below.

1. Harper condoning the constant attack ads exactly like dirty US politics. Successful for him but made me look at him as a scumbag versus his actual platform

2. The whole Nigel Wright giving Mike Duffy $90K to pay his back taxes as a “gift” and Harper claiming not to know anything about it. I don’t think I’ve ever had a co-worker give me $9 let alone $90K out of the goodness of their hearts unless they wanted something. Doesn’t pass my stink test.

3. The NDP candidate and their platform is just stupid.

4. No Libertarian party/candidate to choose from.

5. Proroguing of parliment….twice because Harper’s job was on the line or out of convenience to watch the Olympics.

In business, the saying is you are only as good as your last quarter and I think that is what did it for Harper. Had some great policies but just came off as a scumbag in the end. Call me an optimist, but I want a PM that I never hear about unless it is election time. That way I know nothing blew up and things are stable.

I do regret helping put in Trudeau as he is more dangerous. Trudeau actually believes in the shit that is fed to him and spits out.

#162 CJBob on 09.14.17 at 1:57 pm

#126 CJBob on 09.14.17 at 8:39 am
So to clarify, if you aren’t using the loophole that is being closed then there is absolutely no impact on your business. None at all.
__________________
#143 Lead Paint on 09.14.17 at 11:25 am
__________________
Thanks for the reply. Which part of my original statement is incorrect? How are you worse off if this change goes through than you were before?

My trolling life is limited to pointing out incorrect statements. Not wading into opinions, incorrect facts. Educate me on why I’m wrong this time. Thanks.

#163 jess on 09.14.17 at 1:58 pm

Can the EU learn from the Azerbaijani Laundromat scandal in helping tackle anonymous company ownership?

On September 4th the latest in a series of leaks uncovered by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) revealed how the ‘Azerbaijani Laundromat’ – a major money laundering and lobbying scheme involving Azerbaijan’s ruling elite, European politicians, and a network of anonymous British companies – facilitated more than 16,000 covert payments totalling US $2.9bn (£2.2bn). This case points once again to how easy it is for corrupt individuals to gain access to the EU financial system and launder suspect funds using anonymous companies to spend on luxurious lifestyles.”

https://www.globalwitness.org/en/blog/can-eu-learn-azerbaijani-laundromat-scandal-helping-tackle-anonymous-company-ownership/

#164 % Check on 09.14.17 at 2:03 pm

#25 Millenials

You poor naive child, TO prices to be supported by “investment & influx of new citizens”.. what are you smoking kid?

Investment thesis was just blown up! Since Apr, interest rates up 100% and will rise another 100% into 2018. Stress tests, drop in avg sales price, no buyers, etc

As for “influx of new citizens”, realtors have been using this point till their faces turn blue.. let me ask you something, what is the projected annual growth rate of GTA population over the next 25 years? Drum roll please……. range of 0.8% to 1.8%!!!! So, if we have stagnant wages, and a 1% growth rate in population, what is driving price growth? SPECULATION

Foreign buyers speculate, but they are 5% to 7% of Van & TO markets, the rest of it is people binging on cheap debt as per Garth, and that debt is more expensive and harder to get!

———-

Please try to keep up on the fact that speculation by foreign investment. If you are going to reject the realtor rationale of price increases from projected pop growth, please equally question the ‘5%’ foreign capital line they feed.

In Vancouver, provincial data as opposed to unreliable realtor data, showed that foreign purchases were much greater than 5%. In two of the largest cities, it was over 20% – in Richmond and Burnaby.

Also, since 1986, Vancouver prices have risen exponentially. They have been detached from local incomes and interest rate sensitivity for close to 30 years – as rates have gone up and down over those years. If you think a slow interest rate hike over a couple of years is going to make a dent, you will be waiting a long time.

With an average family income of 75K in Metro Vancouver, prices are so far detached from ‘fundamentals’ that its obvious to anyone that global flows of capital are more significant than ‘local’ speculation. If you think mortgage rule changes will correct the market, you will be waiting a long time.

The only component of the Vancouver market that is down are houses by about 10% following the implementation of the BC Foreign Buyer’s Tax – which at the several million dollar mark – is not getting close to ‘local economic fundamentals’ any time soon. But it does tell you where the sensitivity is…

#165 Victor V on 09.14.17 at 2:16 pm

Foreign buyers drop in Toronto, Hamilton real estate deals: From May to August, they comprised 3.2 per cent of transactions in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, down from 4.7 per cent in April.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/09/14/foreign-buyers-drop-in-toronto-hamilton-real-estate-deals.html

#166 jess on 09.14.17 at 2:24 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/04/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-azerbaijani-laundromat

===

By Adam Davidson

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/13/donald-trumps-worst-deal

…”The Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, passed in 1977, forbade American companies from participating in a scheme to reward a foreign government official in exchange for material benefit or preferential treatment. The law even made it a crime for an American company to unknowingly benefit from a partner’s corruption if it could have discovered illicit activity but avoided doing so. This closed what was known as the “head in the sand” loophole….

“Alexandra Wrage, who runs Trace International, a consortium of three hundred corporations that do business overseas. Trace helps these firms avoid violating the F.C.P.A., and it has a division that can be hired by individual clients to assess potential foreign partners. To comply with the law, Wrage noted, an American company must remain vigilant even after a contract is signed, monitoring its foreign partner to be sure that nobody involved is engaging in bribery or other improprieties.Wrage pointed out that corrupt government leaders often use their children or their siblings to distance themselves from illicit projects. Such an official creates a company in the relative’s name which appears to be independent but is controlled by the official. To lessen the likelihood of an F.C.P.A. violation when working with a company that is owned by a child or a sibling of a government minister, Wrage told me, “you’d need to show that the child has real expertise, real ability to do the work.” Otherwise, Wrage said, “the assumption is that they are a partner entirely because of their ability to use their parent’s power.”

#167 Dan on 09.14.17 at 3:07 pm

70% don’t have pensions. But assisted suicide is on and the world is full of replacement ,so what to worry about?

#168 Smartalox on 09.14.17 at 3:22 pm

Fun with figures:

I was playing around with some spreadsheets I built to figure out the optimal time to buy a house – comparing rising rates versus falling prices.

I decided to use the model to look at how the B-20 stress tests might affect purchasing power, that is, what % reduction in mortgage principal is required to compensate for the stress test, if cash flow were to remain the same.

This assumes the worst case of being ‘stretched to the limit’, that a mortgage payer’s budget had no areas of optional spending that could be drawn upon to defray the higher mortgage payments demanded by stress test conditions.

For example, if you were making mortgage payments AND investing in savings, and your mortgage payments went up to stress-test levels, you could direct some of that money that you’re socking away as savings to cover the increased cost of mortgage payments.

But if you were just making ends meet with your mortgage payments and other costs, your mortgage principal would have to be lower, in order for your payments to stay the same, at stress-test rates. Get it?

What I found was a 200 basis point (+2.00%) over prime stress test correlated to requiring a 36% reduction in mortgage principal, to keep payments at the same level.

For a 300bp stress test (+3.00%) for renewing mortgages the reduction in principal was 40%, to keep payments at the same level.

To put that in perspective, that means that your Loan To Value (LTV) had better be 60% or less at the time of mortgage renewal, – if you’re just making ends meet- or you won’t pass the stress test.

Things to remember:
1. The ‘Value’ of the property is whatever the market (or an appraisal) says it is. This can change with market fluctuations, etc.
2. The ‘Loan’ is the amount that you signed for to buy the place, when you bought it. This only decreases when you make payments to the principal. Most mortgage payments in the first 5 years of ownership are over 50% interest costs, less than 50% goes to the principal. Sometimes a lot less.

Of course, the loan portion can increase as well, if you chose to do so when re-financing.

But nobody who is stretched to the limit financially would ever refinance their mortgage loan to take on more debt, right?

#169 Ian on 09.14.17 at 3:37 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/new-report-suggests-to-get-ready-for-several-years-of-housing-retrenchment-nationally-with-toronto-bucking-the-trend

This is such muddled nonsense it defies belief.

So ‘other sectors of Ontario’s economy’ will ABSORB the housing crisis in Toronto when it’s now almost a third of Ontario’s GDP? Ok then. Especially when manufacturing has been decimated, and electricity costs more than a new Tesla. Good times and great analysis.

So are they defining a ‘slowdown’ as a 60% drop? This is beyond words.

#170 Ian on 09.14.17 at 3:45 pm

Here’s my favourite line from that FP article:

“exact turning points are difficult to predict”

Ummm….April perhaps? Look at a graph?!

#171 Ian on 09.14.17 at 4:01 pm

Trump discussing Yellen:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-he-likes-and-respects-yellen-but-hasnt-made-up-his-mind-yet-about-top-fed-job-2017-09-14

Odds are zero she gets renewed. Someone will talk some sense into him and let him know she is trying to blow up the debt bubble on his watch!

#172 MaxtheTax on 09.14.17 at 4:03 pm

Good news from our fearless Gov leaders:

I quote:
“Newly released data from provincially collected tax information shows that individuals who are not citizens or permanent residents of Canada, or foreign corporations, accounted for 3.2 per cent of home purchases across the Greater Golden Horseshoe Region, down from 4.7 per cent since the launch of Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan this spring. In Toronto, 5.6 per cent of transactions were made by foreign buyers, down from 7.2 per cent….Individuals who are not citizens or permanent residents of Canada, or foreign corporations, may be subject to the NRST.”

TKO foreign money launderers of our land!

Also interesting to note RE: income tax overhaul and the 1% whiners: quit complaining of a miniscule cut to your otherwise obscene salaries:

http://www1.salary.com/CA/Ontario/radiologist-salary.html

I like this Gov direction even though I’m far from liberal.

#173 Ole Doberman on 09.14.17 at 4:09 pm

#153 Victor V on 09.14.17 at 12:48 pm

Think your defined benefit pension is money in the bank? Think again

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/retirement/sears-defined-pension-plan-slap-a-reminder-that-savings-should-be-diversified

CALGARY — Sue Earl, a 38-year Sears Canada employee, was shocked when she found out she would only initially receive 81 per cent of the value of her pension as part of the company’s insolvency process.

The 64-year-old from Cobourg, Ont., had assumed her defined-benefit pension was “money in the bank,” a guaranteed amount she’d receive in retirement regardless of the financial health of the failing retailer.

But then, she also didn’t think Sears would cancel the severance payments she’d been receiving since her store was closed last year — that’s what happened after it filed for court protection from creditors in June.
——————————————————–
considering what happened to Sears she should be thrilled to get 81%

#174 Ole Doberman on 09.14.17 at 4:10 pm

#135 WUL on 09.14.17 at 10:11 am

Those nice spring numbers in the Calgary detached single family homes data were a head fake. Half way through September now and the picture darkens. New listings up big. Median and average prices dropping. Of course, year to date still positive but being whittled downward every day. Last week, average sale prices for single family detached were down 9.5% ’17/’16 for the same week.

Must be the poor air quality wafting over the Rockies from the Smokeanagan in BC keeping prospective purchasers indoors.
———————————————————-
I talked with a realtor recently and he said prices have dropped 10% in Calgary overall.

#175 Fish on 09.14.17 at 4:28 pm

Just wait more to come, you think for a moment that the UN organizated areas out side the city will be saved, in Ontario they will bring you in so you can pay your share of Real property taxes,

#176 Mark on 09.14.17 at 4:29 pm

“With an average family income of 75K in Metro Vancouver, prices are so far detached from ‘fundamentals’ that its obvious to anyone that global flows of capital are more significant than ‘local’ speculation. If you think mortgage rule changes will correct the market, you will be waiting a long time. “

Actually there’s plenty of evidence that Vancouver’s RE is in the midst of a credit-driven bubble of excessive speculative enthusiasm. A burgeoning explicit subprime industry. Local credit unions that have gone absolutely wild lending to anyone with a pulse. “Landlord families” who have rolled gains on existing fleets of rental properties into more properties (the big driver over the past number of years) willingly financed by the lenders. Young professionals who have literally pledged nearly the entirety of their realistic future earnings to own small condos. Empty stock and retirement portfolios to such severity that many high-quality Vancouver-based publicly traded businesses are trading at pennies on the dollar. People near retirement age willing to trade their paid-up homes into years of additional mortgage payments, and banks willing to finance mortgages that often exceed the realistic lifespans of the individual borrowers.

Further proof of negligible foreign participation in Vancouver’s RE market is the fact that minus real estate, the Vancouver economy pretty much sucks. It is illogical to think that foreign money could literally only flow into one asset class to the exclusion of all others. Inflows from China are fully accounted for in terms of known investment in the resources industry. Canadian dollars that are being exported overseas are fully accounted for in terms of central bank reserve holding growth, so unexplained inflows are rather impossible to say the least.

Last but not least, there is lots of evidence of local speculative manipulation. For instance, I ragged on a certain Vancouver Realtor, “Khalid” quite a bit last year — as a Globe and Mail article pointed out, was involved in a tactic known as “assignment flipping” which almost always takes place between related entities (no rational arms-length purchaser would ever pay for a property without receiving title, nor would any rational bank ever finance such an arrangement!) to manipulate prices. Adding further to the body of evidence that its out of control local speculation, not legitimate foreign demand driving Vancouver RE.

#177 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.14.17 at 4:31 pm

#144 2009 again

I email them all and they respond in full. If you guys hate dirty shysters who are the problem email everyone upto T2. Let them know they have to go. Realtors fear an open and free market because the truth will come out. They fear people like me pointing out the scum that they know they are. They respond provided you are civil. I get replies every so often . I complain ed about credit being to easy and I think OSFI will fix that. Now I am going to target realtors. Send those letters in and expose them.

Happy Housing Crash Everyone Everyone! :-)

#178 Mark on 09.14.17 at 4:36 pm

“So ‘other sectors of Ontario’s economy’ will ABSORB the housing crisis in Toronto when it’s now almost a third of Ontario’s GDP? “

There is no sector waiting in the wings. Even if the precious metals sector explodes upwards in Canada in a reversion to long-term fair value, as I expect it to in the next number of years, only a very tiny chunk of Canadians actually will actually participate in the upside.

70% of Canadians own their own homes, and thus, participate in the upside due to prices (or lately, the downside). How many actually own gold and silver stocks, or have jobs in the industry? Maybe 1 in 100? If even? The sort of wealth concentration that a gold and silver bull market implies in Canada is enormous, compared to the relatively distributed wealth and consumption created by widespread RE gains that Canada saw until the 2013 apex (~2011 in Calgary, ~2007 in Edmonton, etc.).

Its for this reason that the Bank of Canada is not only behind the curve in cutting interest rates, but they don’t really seem to have any semblance of understanding that deflation, not inflation, is the enemy. Its really unfortunate because a lot of Canadians will be hurt because of Poloz thinking that he’s fighting a housing bubble (that peaked in 2013), or inflation (that peaked around the same time as well, coincidentally!).

#179 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.14.17 at 4:37 pm

Btw NOTHING is selling. Houses just sitting as realtor shysters try to trick people into buying their spec houses as it crashes in value. We already know of one shyster who backed out of a signed deal. Some of them don’t even have grade eight education. High school would be a pipe dream for some of them and yet they are allowed to sell RE. What a joke. Write to your MP and all the way to T2.

#180 oncebittwiceshy on 09.14.17 at 4:42 pm

%Check: “Also, since 1986, Vancouver prices have risen exponentially. They have been detached from local incomes and interest rate sensitivity for close to 30 years – as rates have gone up and down over those years. If you think a slow interest rate hike over a couple of years is going to make a dent, you will be waiting a long time.”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Except you're completely wrong. Too much vodka in that koolaid buddy.

And considering the FBT came in last August. uh huh

http://globalnews.ca/news/2531266/one-chart-shows-how-unprecedented-vancouvers-real-estate-situation-is/

"The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver has been tracking the average price of all properties in their region – which spans from Whistler to Squamish north to south, and Powell River to Maple Ridge west to east – since 1977.

And their data shows the average price of a single-family detached home in the Greater Vancouver area has increased as much in the past five months as it did from 1981 to 2005."

#181 under the radar on 09.14.17 at 4:50 pm

Time will tell. From what i see, there is still strong demand for housing in Toronto. Sales are way down , but prices not so much. Would be sellers are adjusting expectations . There are still pockets that are getting multiple over asking prices . People at the margins are running scared and so are the speculators for the most part. Don’t be fooled , not everyone is in debt over their head. There is a lot of money out there.

#182 MF on 09.14.17 at 5:01 pm

160 n1tro

So literally the reasons I mentioned in my post.

MF

#183 BTC bears on 09.14.17 at 5:03 pm

#154 Ian
You bulls did sell of course correct?

Nope.
Good chance it will be back at $5k before the month runs out.

Not to speak of the price on Sept 14, 2018.

#184 Dissident on 09.14.17 at 5:24 pm

Agreed – #31 What has this become on 09.13.17 at 7:11 pm

As they say, “A clock stuck in one position is right two times a day”.

I feel like if you summarized what’s happening now, in the first couple weeks of September, you’ll see, attractive, new MLS listings are popping up where there weren’t any before, or where there were crappy listings that sat forever. Prices are not astronomical but they could use a bit more of a ‘reality check’ for my liking. But still, you’re getting more house for your dollar than you were in April.

I believe that if you need a house for long term, then you can go and buy something. If prices are only going to increase by 1% per year, then its better than buying at the peak last spring before the 20% crash. I mean, correct me if I am wrong.

#185 Rudiger on 09.14.17 at 5:42 pm

And the effect of T2’s tax free helicopter money – AKA child care benefit, &provincial programs? With three kids, I personally get almost $12000 (tax free) per year at a modest income in AB. It’s ridiculous. I know others who get substantially more (more kids), think this could this postpone any further decline in AB at least? I guess assuming one can hang on to their job. What happens if/when the PC’s are back in 2019 and take away the T2 helicopter money/punch bowl?

#186 X on 09.14.17 at 5:46 pm

How about a post on what the small business or doctor tax could do to the bank/insurers. It seems like they have the most to gain.

I mean, if it isn’t worth it to keep any money inside your corporation, and you needed new equipment, you would need a loan and would have to pay the bank interest.

And if a corp owner were to set up an IPP to fund their retirement, it appears the banks and/or insurers would benefit from that too.

#187 Smartalox on 09.14.17 at 5:47 pm

#175 Mark Re: Speculative Manipulation in Vancouver Real Estate

Now just think that all of those profits earned from real estate speculation and assignment flipping are being classified as ‘passive retained earnings’ in ‘Personal Real Estate Corporations’ and are not (currently) subject to taxation.

It’s not the doctors that these changes to the PRPP are intended to take out, it’s corporations like Khalid’s, where the risk associated with establishing the corporation is minimal (compared to that encountered by a doctor, in attaining a specialty and opening a practice).

What a PR fiasco this has turned out to be for the poor maligned doctors, whose very own protests of the plan described themselves as ‘tax cheats’, and unmasked a peculiar strain of arrogance that basically sent the message:

“We don’t need to pay your stinking taxes, because we’re Doctors!”

All of which made the rest of us sit up and say:

“What? What do you mean you’re not paying taxes?”

#188 akashic records on 09.14.17 at 6:10 pm

#49 Bob on 09.13.17 at 7:57 pm

Dog spelled backwards is God….

…I know, cheesy.

—–

It is cheesy Wašíču…

Luther Standing Bear will explain you what you meant:

“From … the Great Spirit there came a great unifying life force that in and through all thing – the flowers of the plains, blowing winds, rocks, trees, birds, animals – and was the same force that had been breathed into the first man. Thus all things were kindred and were brought together by the same Great Mystery”.

#189 BTC crash due to China regs on 09.14.17 at 6:33 pm

China has been trying to stop the outflows of capital for a couple years now and it’s showing effect everywhere in the slowdown of global RE purchases and M&A activity.

This last crackdown on BTC is going to hurt RE markets in YVR and GTA.

The money simply has to stay in China. Their government needs to work off the shadow banking supply of fake loans.

#190 aa6 on 09.14.17 at 6:36 pm

I am hoping the move from a 20% sprinkled, exempted tax rate, to a 55% tax rate for high income earners.. will adjust their love of socialism and bigger and bigger government.

#191 Linda on 09.14.17 at 7:01 pm

‘And not die’. True enough, though we are now all of us supposed to count on living to age 90 or even 95 for financial planning purposes.