The hawk

The hawk swoops. Rates increase. Link here.

Imagine. The dollar nearing 82 cents. Toronto detached house prices now negative year/year. Three, four or even five rate increases by the end of 2018. (Update: Wednesday 10 am EDT – The Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 1%, effective immediately.)

The currency has swelled for a bunch of reasons, including gonzo growth based on reckless consumer spending, a weakening US buck as the drums of war beat, the latest climate change twins, Harvey & Irma, and the fact our central bank’s gone macho. Boss Stephen Poloz has switched from dove to hawk in a hurry. Six months ago nobody was anticipating any interest rate bump this year. Now we have two down with more in the oven.

By the end of 2018 bank economists (they know everything) say rates will be a full 1% higher. That puts the prime at almost 4%, HELOCs at 4.5%, personal lines at 6% and five-year fixed mortgages around 4%. Combined with the universal stress test requiring an extra 2% insurance, borrowers in late 2018 will be applying for home loans at an effective rate of 6%.

Renewers? Well, let’s see what protocol the banks adopt once the OSFI (regulator) guidelines are made clear. If real estate markets deteriorate after the rate hikes and rule changes take effect, it’ll be risk on for the Big Six. People who bought houses without a stress test and 2.3% mortgages could be in a for a shock if they’re offered less or to pony up some cash upon renewal.

Today’s rate hike was all the proof anyone needs our central bank has entered a new phase. A month ago the odds of a September increase were effectively zero. Credit for this is a 4.5% economic growth rate, which is twice that of the US and what you’d normally expect from an emerging market after a rainstorm. Ironically, a big part of that expansion came from the debt-snorfling and careless spending of the Canadian middle class which took place before the real estate gasbag started deflating in April. Almost nobody expects it to continue. However, the central bank is happy to leverage it into higher rates.

Why? Well, the big banks get better spreads since you can count on loan costs escalating a lot faster than the returns on savings accounts and GICs. Second, the central bank puts a little insurance under its best. If the economy lags in the future it has room to backpedal and throw some stimulus around. Right now, with its benchmark at just 0.75%, there’s precious little room on the downside.

Third, our guys want to keep up with the Americans, who have advanced rates three times in the last nine months. The yield on two-year Justin Bonds has risen weed-like in the past few weeks and now paces those of the US. Markets see our bank as being more aggressive than the Fed in 2018.

The result?

For the past three or four years crazed consumers and horny housebuyers have accounted for 90% of Canadian economic growth. They’ve financed that with more than $2 trillion in household debt. Astonishingly, new credit continues to expand at three times the rate of inflation. When people take loans to buy stuff they can’t afford with current dollars, they borrow against the future. Consumption from years yet to occur is moved into the present. It’s a bet that five years from now you’ll earn more, still be employed, and able to pay down what you took.

What a gamble.

Most of that debt – two-thirds of it – is in mortgages. Many were taken to acquire properties at their apex of value, when the cost of borrowing had never been lower. Now rates are rising with the assumption that house prices will fall. Add in the new borrowing test, and overall credit is expected to fade by about a fifth.

Oh, and did I ever mention taxes are going up for almost two million small business owners, entrepreneurs and professionals like doctors?

According to StatsCanada, almost 65% of the economy is now the result of people buying things, as opposed to making stuff or selling product beyond our borders. The bulk of that is residential real estate. Never have Canadians invested so much in a single asset class, nor borrowed so extremely to get it. Leverage is off the chart when you consider that the bulk of million-dollar house buyers in Toronto have debt-to-income ratios above 450%.

The last time our economy was this hooked on house porn? That’s right. Never.

So, up it is. Expect consequences.

272 comments ↓

#1 nick on 09.05.17 at 5:45 pm

First! TREB tomorrow I hope.

#2 TurnerNation on 09.05.17 at 5:50 pm

Omg 2nd?

Paging Chancellor Rebalancer to the blog.
..
@Tony check TECK.B perhaps a generational top.
..
Most aptly titled Youtube vid to see:
“North Korea is a giant movie set”

#3 Ian on 09.05.17 at 5:53 pm

The Plozzer is ready to strike!! Ultrahawk turns on a dime!

It’s ON for tomorrow.

Gold crushing it. Go rocks!!

#4 Ian on 09.05.17 at 5:55 pm

And flop…what is a GAP code?!

#5 Herkunft on 09.05.17 at 5:56 pm

However, the central bank is happy to leverage it into higher rates. Why? Well, the big banks get better spreads since you can count on loan costs escalating a lot faster than the returns on savings accounts and GICs.
===============
Does this suggest that BoC is not totally independent from interests of the big banks?

#6 5Inatrailer on 09.05.17 at 5:59 pm

Awesome. Except the $$ we borrowed was to START a small business. So what now?
I think he oldest adage; live beneath your means, pay off debt is appropriate.

But how can we use the information and forecasting to gain advantage over the greater fools?

Tell me it’s raining. Fine. I believe you. I even didn’t overspend on sunscreen and grabbed an umbrella on the cheap. What next?

#7 yorkville renter on 09.05.17 at 6:01 pm

Thanks to all the anger at Wild Bill I’ve learned that pension splitting is allowed, but incone splitting is not… how is that fair? So mad at these guys right now.

Also, #4, I didn’t read Flop’s post but in the context of this blog I’m going to guess he meant GAAP code (generally accepted accounting principles)

#8 Support Mark! on 09.05.17 at 6:04 pm

Is Poloz bi-polar or suffering from a mental disorder?
It was only a few months back that he was disappointed when the Loonie was at 72 cents, but now he wants to implement rate hikes that will skyrocket the Loonie to about 90 cents this year?

Is Canada exporting Vancouver hash to make up for the loss of sales from manufacturing exports?

If the real estate crashes, will we end up with a 50 cent Loonie again?

#9 Theyounggreek on 09.05.17 at 6:07 pm

Gentlemen,
We are 8 years into a bull market and Garth is predicting interest rates will be 1% higher a year from now. Another super smart blogger I follow has been calling for an imminent catastrophic market correction for the last 5 years. Clearly no one can predict the future but I would wager that after an 8 year bull run we would be more likely to get some kind of correction than see interest rates 1% higher. Correction equals lower interest rates. Spend spend spend!!!

Actually that is a bank prediction. — Garth

#10 Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 09.05.17 at 6:09 pm

I would not be surprised if the NAFTA talks fail. I believe the US would prefer to have two different bilateral agreements, a different one for Canada than the one for Mexico. I think the reversal of the $CDN is due to the BOC talking up the $CDN for NAFTA purposes. I see no reason why the $CDN should be this strong. As a country we are up to our necks in personal debt, oil is foundering, and taxes are increasing. Where is the driver for growth? Never short the USA ( Even a Trumped USA)

#11 mirza on 09.05.17 at 6:13 pm

if canada wants NAFTA they have to equalize currency ,Taxes , Labour Pay Etc to USA

#12 Hotdogs from Heaven on 09.05.17 at 6:14 pm

Don’t forget the increase in the inflation rate starting in 2018 and continuing through 2019.

Ontario is 40% of Canada’s GDP.

9% of the workforce makes minimum wage and 30% make under $15/hour.

They will be getting a large double digit pay hike in 2018 when Kathleen Wynne’s higher minimum wage kicks in.

When businesses must give that increase to their minimum wage workers, what do you think will happen to the guys now making $15 or $16? They’ll want $18 or $19.

And the guys making $18 or $19 and hour will want $21 or $22.

This is going to drive up costs that can only be met by increasing the price of those businesses’ goods and services.

The BOC will see this in late 2018 or early 2019 and probably toss in a few more rate hikes on top of those Garth mentioned.

The end result will be that Toronto real estate is toast!

#13 Hotdogs from Heaven on 09.05.17 at 6:18 pm

2018 will see the minimum wage hike to $14/hour and then 2019 will see it increase to $15/hour.

Also don’t forget that 2019 begins 7 years of continuous increases in contributions for the new CPP rules. This will suck even more money out of the profits of business owners which can only be mitigated by charging more.

Higher inflation is definitely on its way.

#14 acdel on 09.05.17 at 6:18 pm

Bring it on! Serious balancing needs to happen!! What a sh*t show!~

#15 Penny Henny on 09.05.17 at 6:22 pm

#9 Theyounggreek on 09.05.17 at 6:07 pm
Gentlemen,
We are 8 years into a bull market and Garth is predicting interest rates will be 1% higher a year from now. Another super smart blogger I follow has been calling for an imminent catastrophic market correction for the last 5 years.
/////////////////////

Your super smart blogger has only been calling for a correction for 5 years?
Me thinks he was three years behind.

#16 rates by rates on 09.05.17 at 6:27 pm

Rates come and go, you can’t change that.
You deal with it as it is, as always.

If the impact of Irma repeats the scale of damage in Miami, what we had in Houston then everything goes back to the drawing board at The Fed and Ottawa will follow.

And we didn’t even mention Korea.

Everything is in motion, nobody knows shit. Certainly not the future.

#17 M on 09.05.17 at 6:40 pm

“Three, four or even five rate increases by the end of 2018.” -> Dream on Gartho

Maybe one Wednesday. -> ..if not..Thursday for sure LOL

If not then, it’ll come in October.-> 2035.

As I said.. It’s only THE MARKET that will push the rates up. Violently. The other choice is let canadian pesso go 5c US. Even Poloz (that ain’t the sharpest tool in the shed) ..can’t be THAT stupid.

“The currency has swelled for a bunch of reasons,”
No baby.. only ONE reason. US $ is in free fall :)
Did you check EMs and other foreign currencies ?
US is falling faster than Canada, that’s all. Once the magnitude of the RE collapse in Canada is understood to be in the Trilions, Canada will catch up and zoom by US. Downward.

“The odds of a rate hike on Wednesday are 57% as I write this.” –> by the same token there are 43% chances not to.

But this is not the point. Is as simple as the missing common sense in most:
If mikey mouse DOESN’t rise rates Wednesday (and he won’t)…do you people think that the moron will raise rates a month down the road when the economic morass is deeper ?

Corolary: Poloz knows where we’re heading. Rise now and lower in 3 months ? It’ll look bad even for these jokers.

So no Gartho.. Won’t be any raises until Mr Market says so. Violently. Suddenly. Mercilessly.

..just showed you how is done

:)

#18 Andrewski on 09.05.17 at 6:40 pm

I know of a couple who did not get down payment money from her parents, instead the parents signed on to the mortgage because they thought they would have more control. Oh oh, the daughter’s husband has slipped away in the night, no mortgage payments had been made for long enough that the bank is calling the loan & now the parents are on the hook. Let’s be careful out there.

#19 Debtslavecreator on 09.05.17 at 6:41 pm

Neo liberal economies are a tool of the kleptocracy to transfer wealth to the elites
They rely on left wing/ socialism to divide and conquer the masses. When the fake prosperity/ unproductive credit expansion inevitably ends, the assets and tax dollars flow back to the creditors and the population is left broke and angry. Ironically that angers usually results at first an increase in government and demands from socialist politicians to get others and help those who acted recklessly
The sad irony is that the majority of buyers and many refinancers of the last 5 years were busy gambling on homes and effectively helping grandma and grandpa finance a nice retirement by buying the house at peak price
The flip side of this is that most of these borrowers will have no chance of ever retiring and to add insult to injury they will be hit tax after tax and more deficits to pay for grandma and grandpas easy retirement

This is not going to end well – a large number of these borrowers who made bad CHOICES will be begging for a bailout and for their neighbors to be robbed and it is a matter of time that an even more radical government comes in and destroys the minority of us who actually make up the tax base of the nation
This is what happens when there are more takers than makers
Neo liberalism (creditism) results in its victims becoming advocates for the system that ends up destroying them
Oh the irony

#20 Chaddywack on 09.05.17 at 6:41 pm

Yet we’re still getting advertorials like this one in the Vancouver news today…..

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/condos-townhomes-push-metro-vancouver-real-estate-sales-above-august-average

I got my popcorn ready, it’s going to be an interesting show to watch over the next year.

I don’t see how prices can stay so high with rates going up. Move up buyers can sustain it for awhile, but eventually the ability to finance at these prices will essentially be kaput.

Then again, a lot of people in this city “know” that foreign buyers don’t pay Canadian taxes and will swoop in and save the entire market…..right?

#21 M on 09.05.17 at 6:44 pm

..and by the way… ain’t necessary to high the rates to go bust. Shrinking the mortgage ponzi scheme base is enough. This alone shows how bad it is.

I mean …good/amazing/beautiful …for the ones that acted early upon seeing it coming.

#22 Spock on 09.05.17 at 6:55 pm

Ottawa’s blanket changes to tax changes is reckless – BNN

http://bit.ly/2gISziS

#23 Manitoba Whale on 09.05.17 at 6:57 pm

#7 yorkville renter on 09.05.17 at 6:01 pm
Thanks to all the anger at Wild Bill I’ve learned that pension splitting is allowed, but income splitting is not… how is that fair? So mad at these guys right now.
*****

The plot thickens….

#24 arfmoocat on 09.05.17 at 7:02 pm

I have to admit there are more jobs. I’m getting called more about job opportunities.

The wage is still shit though.

#25 Frank on 09.05.17 at 7:03 pm

The 2 year construction period for a building, likely is providing the contradictory GDP info. And encourage the interest rate increases to speed up the collapse.

The coming crash will affect Canadian banks, even losing 1% of uninsured mortages, would reduce earnings 16% when I looked some time ago at one of them. Retail, car dealers, and restaurants will all suffer. With the small business changes, it will be heading for the toilet until the next election.

#26 Canada Taxpayer on 09.05.17 at 7:04 pm

Just another day in Vancouver. Another home sold above asking:

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/north-vancouver-home-sells-above-asking-in-strong-market/article36147619/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

#27 I thinks I know something on 09.05.17 at 7:05 pm

“If the economy lags in the future it has room to backpedal and throw some stimulus around.” – Garth

——————————————————————

Also true if RE goes down in value. I wouldn’t count on mortgage rates going much beyond 3% for a very long time. Even if they do, it won’t last long.

#28 Shawn on 09.05.17 at 7:11 pm

$CAD strength has almost nothing to do with the Canadian economy. Practically all other EM currencies are up against DXY. The real story is USD weakness. If it goes the other way, the headlines will change. Currency is a lagging indicator, the stock market is a leading indicator. What’s telling is the poor relative TSX performance. What is this fortelling?

#29 Howard on 09.05.17 at 7:14 pm

“By the end of 2018 bank economists (they know everything) say rates will be a full 1% higher than now.”

Pedantry alert but this is a common pet peeve of mine : rates will be a full 1 percentage point higher than now, not 1% higher.

1% higher than now would mean 0.75*1.01 = 0.7575.

#30 LP on 09.05.17 at 7:17 pm

#4 Ian on 09.05.17 at 5:55 pm
And flop…what is a GAP code?!
******************************
It stands for gender, age and province. For instance, I am: F70ON

#31 GAP means on 09.05.17 at 7:22 pm

Gender, age, place

Me: M46BC

Flop started this and Boom (RIP) continued.

#32 Joe2.0 on 09.05.17 at 7:23 pm

I ran into an American couple in and around 2007 now staying in Canada.
They had walked away from a house but not before
they maxed their credit to the sky on as many platforms as possible, they bought hundreds of thousands of dollars of easily transportable goods like watches and precious stones.
And skipped town.
They were laughing as they told me their story.
They said it felt good to screw the banks for once.
I guess it takes all kinds.

#33 HoweStreet.com on 09.05.17 at 7:27 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Trudeau Biggest Barrier to Buying a Home.
Why Victoria Real Estate numbers don’t match up with Vancouver’s?

http://www.howestreet.com/2017/09/05/trudeau-biggest-barrier-to-buying-a-home/

#34 suburban coyote and pup on 09.05.17 at 7:28 pm

Sure miss reading Boom’s comments. Thoughts to his family and Flop today.

WIm64
ONf52

#35 AB Boxster on 09.05.17 at 7:28 pm

Gee, that sounds like a glowing review of the Canadian economy and its fundamentals today and for the future.

I guess that’s why Canada’s stock market is about the worst in the world in terms of performance this year, and likely for the remainder of the year.

Makes no sense to increase the amount of maple in the portfolio given these fundamentals.

Well at least our diversity makes us strong.
Yeah. Sure it does.

Canada may be one of the most diverse countries, but Canadians are
some of the most financially inept as well.

The economy is overdebted, overleveraged, over taxed and could soon be toast when the Liberals screw up the NAFTA talks by focusing on transgendered, feminist, climate change gender equity priorities.

Yep, those priorities will jumpstart the economy for sure.

#36 Smoking Man on 09.05.17 at 7:28 pm

I picked a shit time to visit Florida. Pulled into Daytona Beach a few hours ago. I95 North bound full of Boats and RVS. Do these people know something

Want to head to Biloxi in a few day but with my luck in 2017 that’s where Irma will follow.

#37 For those about to flop... on 09.05.17 at 7:33 pm

Ian 17 at 5:55 pm
And flop…what is a GAP code?!

///////////////////////

Hey Ian,a GAP code is something I made up a couple of years ago when there was a fairly decent inter generational argument going on the blog.

What I noticed is a lot of people spent a lot of time explaining how old they were and how things were different where they live and so I thought of a way of compressing all this information into a code and then people would have less explaining to do and also just as a way to sign off and in my mind,this post was written in good faith.

GAP is short for Gender,Age,Province.

We lost Boom one year ago today and he liked the idea and used his GAS(State) code right up until his passing.

I’ve had people give me a shout out from most of the provinces and territories and I think it just humanizes us a little bit more.

We age together and learn,laugh and lose together.

I think I was 41 when I started the Gap code and so I’ve ticked over a couple of times,another bonus is people on here will know when I start to lose my marbles and give me a bit of leeway…

M43BC
M64WI

#38 Sue T2? on 09.05.17 at 7:39 pm

From the comment approval backlog times it is easy to know Bandit’s walk schedule.

#39 BC_Doc on 09.05.17 at 7:40 pm

#319 AGuyInVancouver on 09.05.17 at 5:27 pm
#302 BC_Doc on 09.05.17 at 4:18 pm
Perhaps you can be one of the first patients to get one of those “lower cost foreign trained doctors.” Maybe T2 can import one in from Cuba for you.
_ _ _
Or perhaps we can use Nurse Practitioners who are trained right here for many of our medical needs. But we all know who has been fighting that tooth and nail, don’t we BC_Doc?
*********************************************

A NP can manage a patient every 45 minutes– max two patients an hour if working fast. An office GP will treat 4/hour without breaking a sweat. Office assistant will squeeze 1-2 acutely ill patients in per hour on top of this as needed. Canadian trained GP is also more qualified– four years med school, two years residency, more rigorous hours in training and as a self-employed independent practitioner. Me– I completed a four year medical degree in Canada plus a three year residency. I put tubes, catheters, and lines into my patients and when I decide to play with electricity can light them up like a Christmas tree. Nurse practitioners are neither the answer nor a threat. If T2 goes down the road he’s threatening to, like a bunch of my fellow grey haired colleagues who’ve already worked too many nights, holidays, and weekends, I’m taking my ETF dividends and taking longer holidays while I plan my earlier retirement.

#40 oncebitten on 09.05.17 at 7:41 pm

anecdotal story:

I live on Vancouver Island and today had my first, first hand story of someone I know having a real estate deal fall through (they are the seller). The house is not very nice, in the “rough” part of town, but still.

Fortunately they are in the position of being able to rent out the house if they don’t find a buyer, but they really don’t want to go that route.

#41 Spenditall on 09.05.17 at 7:48 pm

They will blame it on “Friday The 13th” . October should be fun.
Tears by mid November.
Golden showers for all.
Happy housing/market crash everyone.
Rate increase will destroy the game, how many billions/or/trillions of debt denominated in usd will go belly up after a 1% rate hike? Imagine the bond market exploding. How far down will we drop this time. 30%?
Imagine. That.

#42 acdel on 09.05.17 at 7:48 pm

#28 Howard

Perhaps it is the full moon influencing me but I found your post to be most educational and funny at the same time; every once in a while we have to give credit where credit is due! Too funny!!!

#43 Vancouver is different? on 09.05.17 at 7:57 pm

Hello Garth,

When it comes to RE, is Vancouver different? The correction ain’t happening here…

#44 Tony on 09.05.17 at 8:00 pm

Re: #2 TurnerNation on 09.05.17 at 5:50 pm

China just took longer to figure it out.

#45 Smartalox on 09.05.17 at 8:02 pm

Looking at the REBGV Stats Package for August. They actually got it out dated September 1, but that’s probably not a surprise, given how slow things are in some areas.

For Detached Sales, from January to August, comparing 2017 compared with 2016

YTD – Detached 2016 2017 % Change
Burnaby 958 632 -34%
Coquitlam 1165 758 -35%
N. Van 1019 747 -27%
Poco 476 361 -24%
PoMo 254 146 -43%
Richmond 1396 959 -31%
Van East 1227 1011 -18%
Van West 1321 758 -43%
West Van 733 378 -48%
Total 12158 8268 -32%

#46 Sue T2? on 09.05.17 at 8:05 pm

https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/205811/Trudeau-one-on-one

Trudeau talking small biz tax after taking a hike.

#47 acdel on 09.05.17 at 8:10 pm

#37 Sue T2?

Naw, Bandit it slowly showing us on how to chill! The rest the crap out there is out of our control, do what Bandit does; he has a new bionic hip and Garth is out of breath trying to keep up with him; thus the slow response to the replies. :) Chill, enjoy, life is short!

#48 Smartalox on 09.05.17 at 8:12 pm

D’oh!

Highlights for the format-challenged:

– West Vancouver detached sales down 48% year over year
– Vancouver West Side detached sales down 43% year over year
– Port Moody detached down 43%
– Coquitlam detached down 35%
– Burnaby detached down 34%
– Richmond detached down 31%

Overall GVRD detached sales down 32% year over year

August is usually the slowest month for home sales, but these are year-to-date stats, that reflect the longer term trends of demand for detached properties in the affected areas.

If you’re looking to sell detached property in one of these areas where demand is down, you should consider dropping your price, if you need to make a deal.

#49 Victor V on 09.05.17 at 8:29 pm

http://postcity.com/Eat-Shop-Do/Shop/August-2017/Real-Estate-Roundtable-Update-Where-will-the-market-head-after-this-summers-slump/

“I believe that the Toronto real estate market will continue to see price increases and volume increases over the fall; however, the zaniness from October 2016 to March 2017 is over. We’re back to a more sane marketplace where price increases will likely be five to eight per cent per year. There is absolutely no reason why average prices will fall going forward.”

– Brad Lamb

#50 dakkie on 09.05.17 at 8:33 pm

THIS is the ONLY THING Keeping the Canadian Economy From A Complete Meltdown!

http://investmentwatchblog.com/this-is-the-only-thing-keeping-the-canadian-economy-from-a-complete-meltdown/

#51 White Crock BC on 09.05.17 at 8:33 pm

Support Mark! on 09.05.17 at 6:04 pm

Is Poloz bi-polar or suffering from a mental disorder?
It was only a few months back that he was disappointed when the Loonie was at 72 cents, but now he wants to implement rate hikes that will skyrocket the Loonie to about 90 cents this year?

Is Canada exporting Vancouver hash to make up for the loss of sales from manufacturing exports?

If the real estate crashes, will we end up with a 50 cent Loonie again?

==========================

When did we ever have a 50 cent Loonie?

#52 Dobermanduke on 09.05.17 at 8:34 pm

BOOM
M64WI

M55ON

#53 MF on 09.05.17 at 8:40 pm

#8 Support Mark! on 09.05.17 at 6:04 pm

Looks like the BoC is looking for an excuse to raise because:

-they need wiggle room during the next financial crisis which is inevitable
-ZIRP was a failure and now we have huge asset bubbles everywhere and they know it.
-It’s generally accepted that the two rate cuts in response to the oil collapse in 2015 did nothing but throw gasoline on the already way overheated housing markets.
-The rate cuts in 2015 did not do much to help manufacturing.
-they are forced to by the US fed (who is also in the same situation)

They are about 4 years too late and now playing catch up hoping that some crisis does not expose how vulnerable they are due to their own stupid policies.

MF

#54 Asterix1 on 09.05.17 at 8:41 pm

#48 Victor V on 09.05.17 at 8:29 pm

“…price increases will likely be five to eight per cent per year”

“There is absolutely no reason why average prices will fall going forward.”

– Brad Lamb
____________________________________________

People who listen to this Lamb are truly sheeps and pigeons!

#55 Nonplused on 09.05.17 at 8:42 pm

I do not believe the 4.5% growth rate number. Where could such outstanding growth have come from? Are they including the costs of fighting forest fires in BC in the number?

Also, the tax changes on small businesses are likely to cause a permanent recession all by themselves. One that we will never recover from and lead either to Venezuela type socialism or Harper back as PM. Since it won’t be Harper the forecast is dire. Canada only has 36 million people including kids and retirees and most of them don’t work at all or work for the government. Suddenly crippling the economics of your most productive and job creating 2 million people in a country of only 36 million is bound to have a super-sized affect.

Lots of haters of free-enterprise, risk takers, and success on this comment section think screwing the most productive and exposed part of the economy is just what social justice demands. But they are going to find out in the long run when you destroy the incentive you destroy the productivity. A plumber is not going to do emergency calls at 2 am because your PBE plumbing broke if his tax rate is 50% on that work UNLESS YOU PAY FOR IT. Get it straight people, you will pay the taxes, not the service providers because they don’t have any money. Same applies to doctors. Should I work until 7pm today and pay 50%+ taxes or should I just go golfing at 3? Golfing is the easy decision he’s already got the membership.

There are certain commenters, probably mostly millennials but I am sure some broke boomers and Gen X’ers too (although Garth doesn’t talk about Gen X much) who seem to think raising taxes on the productive class will simply result in them working more, as if it’s natural to make slaves out of them. Well, it doesn’t work that way everything is cost-benefit. Why did they raise and continue to raise tobacco and alcohol taxes? To discourage consumption. Raising taxes always discourages consumption. So when you raise the taxes on plumbers, they either don’t see the motivation to work or they raise their rates in which case consumers can’t afford to get the toilet fixed. Either way economic activity goes down.

The way small businesses are treated tax wise is a long thought out and well tested solution. The idea was to encourage economic activity. Trudope and Moronruea obviously don’t like economic activity that competes with their trust funds so they are trying to kill it.

Mark my words. Jan 1, 2018 marks the beginning of a recession that Canada will never recover from. TFSA’s can’t even save this one. Sorry Garth I know you tried.

#56 MF on 09.05.17 at 8:43 pm

#28 Howard on 09.05.17 at 7:14 pm

“Pedantry alert but this is a common pet peeve of mine : rates will be a full 1 percentage point higher than now, not 1% higher.”

-Pedantic poster = Howard?

Lol pedantry alert.

MF

#57 For those about to flop... on 09.05.17 at 8:48 pm

Hey Smartie,the media focuses on the top couple of percent of real estate market and rings the bell as loud and as long as they can when one of these sell.

I have been studying not the bottom 2% but the 2% that either need to sell the most or ar fairly motivated because of their high buy price and it has been really slow in this department the last couple of months.

I have cases from Autumn last year and so for them it must be becoming a grind.

Lots of Pink Draws( less than 7/8% gain) in the ones that do sell and still lots of people that seem to think that everyone wants their house ,but just haven’t found it yet…

M43BC
M64WI

#58 MF on 09.05.17 at 8:50 pm

#54 Nonplused on 09.05.17 at 8:42 pm

This is a good post.

“There are certain commenters, probably mostly millennials but I am sure some broke boomers and Gen X’ers too (although Garth doesn’t talk about Gen X much) ”

-Gen X is not mentioned here very much, but be wary. This group is the most delusional and house horny of all. They all entered the workforce pre 2008 and got in right before everything became contract part time garbage..and they purchased houses in 2006,7.

This group believes they are all financial geniuses due to nothing but timing. They usually stay quiet as we millennials get called “entitled and whiny”..and boomers get called greedy and lazy.

“Lots of haters of free-enterprise, risk takers, and success on this comment section ”

-As with any topic, the comments section also had lots of supporters of small businesses who are against these tax reforms which are straight out of the communist manifesto. Me included.

I believe there is a silent majority on the issue.

MF

#59 bdwy sktrn on 09.05.17 at 8:50 pm

vangroovy shooting the lights out again!!!

uppa, uppa uppa (condo,att,det)

ALL prices up yr/yr AND prev month
Volumes UP (up to 20%) over aug 2016

smartylocks – if the ytd trend is neg and the current month is all positive then THE BOTTOM IS (WAS) IN.

————–but but but…. here’s the real scoop
August inventory in the last 5 years:
Year Inventory
2013 16027
2014 14768
2015 10897
2016 8506
2017 8807

read’em and weep, vreu and 604 bears.

it most assuredly IS different here!

#60 ISmellSmoke on 09.05.17 at 8:53 pm

The HPI actually went down!? I thought they said that was a predictor!?
“Oh 1.5%, that’s nothing to worry about” say the house selling people.
*snicker*

http://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/stats/

#61 Howard on 09.05.17 at 8:54 pm

#55 MF on 09.05.17 at 8:43 pm

I don’t follow….was there a poster with the name “Pedantic Poster”? If so, no I am not him/her.

I am a poster, and I am pedantic, but I am not Pedantic Poster.

#62 Perspective on 09.05.17 at 8:54 pm

#43 Smartalox

The numbers you quote below are in comparison to last year just after the 15% tax came out, and everyone though those numbers were bad! The detached housing number for this August are simply horrible. If the Chinese buyer do not return, and soon the detached market is going to melt down.

D’oh!

Highlights for the format-challenged:

– West Vancouver detached sales down 48% year over year
– Vancouver West Side detached sales down 43% year over year
– Port Moody detached down 43%
– Coquitlam detached down 35%
– Burnaby detached down 34%
– Richmond detached down 31%

Overall GVRD detached sales down 32% year over year

August is usually the slowest month for home sales, but these are year-to-date stats, that reflect the longer term trends of demand for detached properties in the affected areas.

If you’re looking to sell detached property in one of these areas where demand is down, you should consider dropping your price, if you need to make a deal.

#63 jay#2 on 09.05.17 at 8:54 pm

http://www.vancourier.com/news/vancouver-s-median-condo-price-nears-1-million-detached-homes-3-million-1.22414089

#64 Fluorine on 09.05.17 at 8:57 pm

That picture is awesome!
Hoping we see a .25 tomorrow… but willing to wait until October.

M42AB
M64WI

#65 Tim on 09.05.17 at 9:02 pm

@#36 For those about to flop…

Thanks for the explanation! Good idea.

M46ON

#66 Reality 1 on 09.05.17 at 9:04 pm

RE: The poster “Mark”

Mark posts at Zerohedge blog (ZH) under the name “pitz”.

In fact you can find him comenting on the recent article about Canadian housing / borrowing posted this September 4 at 6:30 pm on Zerohedge. (sorry, can’t seem to post link there now folks)

He is roundly criticized there as well, usually with good reason and even greater vitriol.

Pretty funny sometimes – some of those ZH posters are less than complimentary in their merciless appraisals of his “acumen”

While I admire his tenacity and attempts at persuasion, his confusion / interpretation of finance engenders no such respect.

Follow his “opinions” at your own peril, which IMHO, could be substantial.

#67 rainclouds on 09.05.17 at 9:06 pm

Central banks must be soiling themselves. The run up on RE in some US cities has surpassed the previous meltdown prices. LA.Seattle.Portland San Fran Denver Boston . Here in Canukistan only YVR Condos are increasing. It is going to be quite interesting to see what type of sales activity we see.

Morneau got shredded in the comment section of the mop and pail today

T2 giving the keynote speech in Kelowna with his delusional band of progressives should be nauseating. I’m hoping Andrew Scheer was the right choice for the cons……..it’s go time!

RIP BOOM
BC58

#68 Kool Aid on 09.05.17 at 9:07 pm

81-82 all over again, effectively interest rates will double in short order, RE value decline to continue, we’ll see the proof in power of sales by early 2018.

Another 11-15% lower from here by early spring.

Tough for folks late to the RE party.

Higher taxes, higher interest rates, new OFSI rules will adjust values downward.

Now if a NK strike becomes a reality, paper will burn brightest, careful, in times of consequence liquitiy is a risk.

Good luck to all.

#69 Mark on 09.05.17 at 9:15 pm

“A NP can manage a patient every 45 minutes– max two patients an hour if working fast. An office GP will treat 4/hour without breaking a sweat.”

I’d be curious why you think this. There shouldn’t be any difference between the two. But personally I think the whole concept of a NP is ridiculous. Just provide a coherent 2 year schooling upgrade path for 4-year RNs with 5 years of on-the-job nursing experience to becoming full GPs, and forget about being held hostage to the doctors. The engineering profession allows technologists to be licensed to perform engineering work and has a coherent 2-year upgrade path for technologists to become Professional Engineer eligible. Not sure why the doctors would keep nurses in the “Nurse Practitioner” ghetto instead of just labelling them full GPs with “Dr.” infront of their name and all the same rights and privileges.

Back to the topic of the blog this evening, Poloz might act, but it would be a mistake. The Canadian dollar has strengthened so dramatically that a significant deflationary CPI is all but guaranteed as the deflationary impact of a higher CAD$ filters down.

#70 Ian on 09.05.17 at 9:16 pm

Hey Mark the parking in my rental building just increased 21% year over year. Did you factor that into your CPI index?!

All kinds of ‘invisible’ little niggling costs rising. Never captured in inflation numbers.

#71 Ian on 09.05.17 at 9:20 pm

And PS my rent went up 1.5%, which I’m pretty sure is not zero.

#72 Nonplused on 09.05.17 at 9:21 pm

#57 MF

That was the quickest response I’ve had ever. We must have caught Garth on the computer instead of the bike.

Anyway I agree with everything you said but would add if this silent majority doesn’t start speaking up soon then it will occur that they do speak up silently by withdrawing their services, at least in part. The incentive isn’t going to be there for them to continue as they have been.

Ok, now I am going off on a tangent, not related to the previous conversation. Warning, tangent!

The real reason that governments are supporting $15 minimum wages is because it makes minimum wage earners taxable, they will pay some tax as opposed to none as they do now. Sure they will have some extra money at the end of the day but the move is to make them taxable at some level. Where is all this extra tax money going to come from? Well place number one is that McDonald’s and Wendy’s want to replace their cashiers with touch screens. Touche. No more jobs for teenagers who need job experience of any kind. Not sure that was good overall. They’ll have robots flipping the burgers soon and there will be no jobs at a burger joint unless you know how to fix the machines.

And who pays the price for the taxes on the $15/hour laborers and the new robots and touch screens? YOU DO. McDonald’s can’t, they don’t have any money. All their money simply flows through the organization. They get to keep and dividend a very small percentage of the cost of making the burger and they pay taxes on all of that WHICH YOU PAY by buying the burger.

I used to when I was about 12 make money delivering flyers. I had my own wagon. I don’t think that’s going to happen for 12 year olds at $15 an hour.

#73 Ace Goodheart on 09.05.17 at 9:22 pm

Re: Irma: It’s amazing how little press this thing is getting.

Read a bit about folks on the Carribean islands Irma is scheduled to pass over tonight, tying down their boats and boarding up their windows. There was an article about how to put together a hurricane kit with a flash light and emergency supplies.

It may be that the Carribean has not experienced a storm like this in recent history. Or perhaps everyone is misinformed.

Tying down your boat boarding up your windows and carrying a flash light is not going to help in a Cat five hurricane.

Those little islands are going to get destroyed. There likely will be little evidence of there ever having been human civilization there once this beast moves through.

Anyone who stays will likely not be alive tomorrow.

Again it is really odd that no one seems to notice what is about to happen.

There is very little chance of surviving such a storm. Your best option is to leave, fast and by the quickest way possible.

#74 acdel on 09.05.17 at 9:24 pm

Sorry Garth to high jack your informative article; but sometimes one needs to see the great accomplishment mankind has done, so much negativity out there, no need to post this if you do not want to but I hope you enjoy the link:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4853626/Nasa-celebrates-40th-anniversary-Voyager-1-2.html

#75 Howard on 09.05.17 at 9:25 pm

So what’s going on with the NDP/Green coalition in BC? Granted I don’t live in the province, but they really seem to have gone into hiding. What’s the game plan re: their housing policy proposals?

#76 Sue T2? on 09.05.17 at 9:27 pm

Finally China is probably forced to stop using North Korea to bully the US. If nuke test site can’t contain radiation and spills to China, the Communist leader will have no choice but to put on short leash the comrade-in-chief in North Korea.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-05/chinese-scientists-warn-north-koreas-nuke-test-site-risk-imploding-releasing-many-ba

#77 Brian Gordon on 09.05.17 at 9:28 pm

@#69
lol, my parking increased by 40% YOY…

#78 Sparky55 on 09.05.17 at 9:29 pm

Wild Bill in the news:
*********************
Warning of ‘two classes’ of taxpayers, Morneau stands firm on controversial tax overhaul plan

http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/warning-of-two-classes-of-taxpayers-morneau-stands-firm-on-controversial-tax-overhaul-plan

#79 ANON on 09.05.17 at 9:33 pm

It’s a bet that five years from now you’ll earn more, still be employed, and able to pay down what you took.

It is a promise of more. It is trust in the narrative that tomorrow will be better. It is…drumroll…:
“Beautiful credit! The foundation of modern society. Who shall say that this is not the golden age of mutual trust, of unlimited reliance upon human promises?”

It is exact, everyone agrees with that:
A = P ( 1+r ) ^ t
…but even if it clearly does not exist: P ( 1+r ) ^ t – P, everyone agrees that it does.
Such is the human mind. :)

#80 Steve French on 09.05.17 at 9:38 pm

Smoking Man’s about to get b—h slapped by Hurricane Irma!

Lucky climate change is a lieberal Chinese hoax eh Smokey?

By the way there’s another one, Hurricane Jose, on its way after Irma…

#81 Trumpocalypse2017 on 09.05.17 at 9:39 pm

We’re heading to “global catastrophe”.

Not me, Putin said it:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/05/asia/north-korea-putin/index.html

You have days and hours to prepare, perhaps weeks if lucky.

Months? Forget it, too late…..

NK is watching Irma closely. the next hurricane strike, this weekend, will be a perfect distraction to up their nuclear game. Putin knows this too.

Hell is about to break loose……

#82 genbizx on 09.05.17 at 9:39 pm

who cares about wrecking the economy? we’re diverse!! yay!
all this talk about how diverse we are…it would be nice if that were true…how many cities or areas of cities can we find in this country that are predominantly one race? where it would be hard to do business if you weren’t that race? more than one would expect from all the cheerleading.. is that diversity? where does that lead? to a sharing of culture or unity? or a bunch of separate groups angling for their own interests? nothing wrong with living around your own to get your bearings in a new setting but if that continues there really is no diversity is there?

and we aren’t even a bilingual nation..we have a language law foisted on us by our past history..what a useless system..not many people can or need to function in french outside of specific areas of the country. great to know languages but i’d choose mandarin over french outside of the leg up it gives one in this silly system.

all the things we tell ourselves we are but aren’t really..that’s kind of the canadian way….ya we’re good but we really don’t have a great handle on what we are and where we are heading.

#83 For those about to flop... on 09.05.17 at 9:40 pm

Hey Broadway,Greater Vancouver on zolo is showing over 12,000

I’m just trying to work out if this is another one of the times you are lying to me or just not telling the truth…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=Greater%20Vancouver%20&filter=1

#84 Scully on 09.05.17 at 9:43 pm

#38 BC Doc
Many of us truly appreciate what you do. I also want to put out there to please email your Liberal MP and tell him/her that you are pissed at this tax. It may seem like an exercise in futility but I think T2 and Mor-know-nothing are feeling the heat – and not from the forest fires. It’s not a done deal yet. Just a feeling. Maybe I’m channelling nectonites. (I hear there’s a cure for that…)

#85 Long Branch Apprentice on 09.05.17 at 9:44 pm

Just drove from Kingston ON to PEI then back to Sudbury. What I saw was an economy based on low wage service jobs, seasonal tourism, consumption and storage rental units. QC had some manufacturing, but also many for rent signs for commercial units.

Diversity is our strength. Or something like that.

Expect issues like Fentynal OD’s to increase in the future.

The only people in Canada with any real money are the children of wealthy immigrants or Boomers with government pensions.

We’re f*#@ed. Plain and simple. Simple like Justin Castro.

M33ON

#86 acdel on 09.05.17 at 9:48 pm

One last post; as discussed a few days back, Irma is the real deal; please, anybody down south that is potentially in her path; get the heck out of there if you can or prepare as best you can for the outfall, this one could be unprecedented! God speed!

#87 Linda on 09.05.17 at 9:50 pm

So if the current GDP stats are due to Canucks spending like crazed beavers, does that not mean that our GDP will drop like a rock once we stop spending? If interest rate increases are the trigger to stop spending $ we don’t have, then it seems like this party is about to be closed down…..

In other news, anyone who was planning to head towards Florida or the Caribbean would be wise to reconsider. Anyone currently in those locales who can depart for safer realms would be wise to do so, but they’d better move fast.

#88 Perpective on 09.05.17 at 9:52 pm

The feds will end up giving the provinces more money for health which will support Doc fee demands. I doubt this new tax is aimed at them anyway. My gut tells me that there are likely a pile of folks taking advantage of this, and that forced the government to act. Had I figured this out sooner I may have gone out on my own, and picked up a few more product lines. I am in sales, and I am sure some of my competitors are doing this. Also, since many of the upset folks vote Liberal, its no big deal. You won’t see the polling budge.

#89 Chimingin on 09.05.17 at 9:57 pm

F48ON

M64WI

Boomed
(as pronounced with Flop’s Aussie accent)

#90 Russ on 09.05.17 at 9:57 pm

For those about to flop… on 09.05.17 at 7:33 pm

We age together and learn,laugh and lose together.

I think I was 41 when I started the Gap code and so I’ve ticked over a couple of times,another bonus is people on here will know when I start to lose my marbles and give me a bit of leeway…

M43BC
====================

You’re right again Flop.

I’ve been givin’ you a bit o’ leeway for over a year now :)

Big shout to Boom. We too miss the ol’ level-headed one.

M64WI and ageless

Cheers, R
M60BC

Yup, it’s almost pension time…

#91 SJF in 312 on 09.05.17 at 10:00 pm

Missing the cheese head’s comments. They were valuable and insightful.

M55IL
M64WI

#92 I'm stupid on 09.05.17 at 10:01 pm

#9 The young Greek

You must really be pickled in debt. You can wish all you want but that won’t change anything. If you think the govt will protect the over extended your very mistaken. Poor will always remain poor not because of the system but because they’re fools. The 99% loaded up on consumer based debt (housing is consumption not an investment) and now they’ll realize how foolish they were.

#93 Leo Trollstoy on 09.05.17 at 10:05 pm

The Donald continues to successfully engineer a lower US dollar. This is something that he has said is needed even while on the campaign trail. I believed him then and I believe him now. His success will increase US competitiveness.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/04/12/donald-trump-wants-everything-about-america-to-be-strong-he-just-announced-a-big-exception/

The Canadian economy continues to outperform and throw off amazing jobs. Inflation is healthy an rising. Life has always been good here but now it’s amazing!

#94 Leo Trollstoy on 09.05.17 at 10:07 pm

Toronto real estate prices won’t weaken as long as the jobs and the economy is robust. Even in the face of rising interest rates.

#95 Mark on 09.05.17 at 10:10 pm

“Inflation is healthy an rising. ”

Not true. Inflation last month was 0% month over month, and trending downwards YoY.

Toronto real estate prices won’t weaken as long as the jobs and the economy is robust.

Since Toronto RE prices are weakening after reaching the apex in 2013, you’re trying to tell us that the economy isn’t robust? That the GDP number is fake? Sounds about right….

#96 Willy H on 09.05.17 at 10:11 pm

Credit for this is a 4.5% economic growth rate, which is twice that of the US and what you’d normally expect from an emerging market after a rainstorm.
___ ___ ___ ___

This GDP data seems a bit suspect to me.

Has StatsCan got this wrong?

#97 Happy Housing Crash on 09.05.17 at 10:33 pm

Leo Trollstoy on 09.05.17 at 10:07 pm
Toronto real estate prices won’t weaken as long as the jobs and the economy is robust. Even in the face of rising interest rates.

This is why you are dirty evil shysters. The Housing market is CRASHING RIGHT NOW! NOTHING is selling and prices have already crashed 20-30% and will CRASH another 20% min with new stress test(not even including increased interest rates which will crash prices even more). You dirty shysters make me sick with your lies. They are not even good lies.

Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

#98 brett on 09.05.17 at 10:34 pm

Climate change twins? How come record few hurricanes over past 15 years. Talk about recency bias.

#99 Sue T2? on 09.05.17 at 10:36 pm

Will the 800,000 DACA “dreamer” try to continue the “dream” in Canada if they really have to leave the US?

Is Canada prepared for this possibility?

#100 akashic records on 09.05.17 at 10:45 pm

How about this explanation for “global warming”?
USCG ice cores

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxERTlbAo7g&list=PL3ducBA0aeVEraiotz7u6uGsEgM1JmrAV

#101 acdel on 09.05.17 at 10:48 pm

#97 brett

Who cares really what has happened in the past 15 yrs; this is not a debate about climate change but one about the potential of the greatest storms to ever hit the U.S. and other countries in the Caribbean, citizens beware! Let us take a break from these stupid debates and focus on how this storm will impact many! Man, get a life!!!! This world has gone to sh*t!

#102 SW on 09.05.17 at 10:50 pm

#72 Ace Goodheart on 09.05.17 at 9:22 pm
“Re: Irma: It’s amazing how little press this thing is getting…It may be that the Carribean has not experienced a storm like this in recent history. Or perhaps everyone is misinformed…Those little islands are going to get destroyed. There likely will be little evidence of there ever having been human civilization there once this beast moves through…Anyone who stays will likely not be alive tomorrow. it is really odd that no one seems to notice what is about to happen.”

Well, I suggest that you start reading weather-related news or blogs if you want to know what is happening. One good one is this:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6

You will note that they have been following this thing since it was just a tropical wave off the coast of Africa…

You are mistaken if you think Irma is unprecedented, or that Caribbean nations are completely inexperienced or unprepared (perhaps with the exception of Haiti).

Let’s hope that these storms pass with as little loss of life as possible. It’s going to be a disaster whatever the details.

One worthwhile charity if you want to help is http://www.portlight.org/

#103 DON on 09.05.17 at 10:57 pm

@MF – Gen X post.

I am Gen X . Remember Gen X is a range of people. Stupid, greedy, and asswipe transcend all Generations. When I entered the job market the boomers were well entrenched and there was little movement – plus the downsizing of boomers didn’t help job prospects, etc. Most people barely didn’t have credit cards, at least not with the high limit you see in 2017.

When my friends and I first started looking for houses the banks wanted five years at the same job (good pay, etc). Hell my Registered Nurse sister had trouble as even she had to wait for full-time job opening. Thing is – the interest rates were higher, prices were doable but the full time employment for 5 years at a good professional wage was rare.

And the back packing around the world boomed.

A particle board / glue laminated house is shit. Do not get caught up in this housing BUBBLE. And try not to generalize when you are discussing the various generations. Last year this time if you told anyone that house prices in TO would come down – they would look at you as if you were from planet stupid and walk away from you like a bunch of ‘valley girls’. Fast forward to next year. It is NOT over until it is over and then it is OVER. Just because we aren’t their yet, doesn’t mean we are not headed in that direction.

My pet peeve…people quoting realtor ads in newspapers. No investigative journalism…just a revenue stream for a dying newspaper industry.

M64WI —Here’s to you BOOM.

M46BC

#104 Ex-Cowtown on 09.05.17 at 10:57 pm

“… the latest climate change twins, Harvey & Irma….” GT

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

C’mon man, you’re sounding like Global News. How about the last twelve years since a major hurricane made landfall in the U.S.? Just watched a segment where the intrepid Global reporters tried to get some Hurricane Harvey victims to say it was all about Global Warming. When they said, no, it’s actually just the weather, Global labeled them DENIERS. Utter crap.

If it doesn’t fit with the democrat/liberal/antifa view of the world it’s denial right?

#105 waiting on the westcoast on 09.05.17 at 10:59 pm

#94 Mark… Re: inflation…

Yes, July was flat but YoY it was up 1.2% (which was up from 1% YoY the month before). And yes, this is lower than the 2% levels at the start of the year… but well within the 1.2-1.5% most of last year (with a near 2% rate early in the year as well).

#106 Fake News Again on 09.05.17 at 11:02 pm

Wild Bill huh? Well “Bill” went to “Bill”derberg this past summer. And now “small biz” is getting squeezed to the delight of the mega corporations.

As usual……the media, the public, the blogs…..do not pick up on this.

Canada is doomed.

#107 Entrepreneur on 09.05.17 at 11:03 pm

I came into the blog about the time Boomer was ill so do not recall his comments. BWTS, I would say that he proabably wanted people to speak up and say their piece. And don’t worry about the mistakes.

Boomer and most of the bloggers want to stand by our country. And help others. RIP Boomer but we will fight on.

#108 DON on 09.05.17 at 11:18 pm

#95 Willy H on 09.05.17 at 10:11 pm

Credit for this is a 4.5% economic growth rate, which is twice that of the US and what you’d normally expect from an emerging market after a rainstorm.
___ ___ ___ ___

This GDP data seems a bit suspect to me.

Has StatsCan got this wrong?
**************

GDP due to consumer spending. There was an article on cbc the other day about the consumer (non house) credit bubble. Credit cards are being maxed…the bank knows what is coming and will need to hike interests rates before downturn starts. The next recession is always around the corner. Perfect timing for the back of Canada to use the 4.5 GDP as a reason to hike rates (as others have commented).

There is a shit storm coming and it gets closer by the day. Why else would the BANK of CANADA flip flop in a short period of time. The calm before the storm. How else can we explain the flip flop.

#109 Smoking Man on 09.05.17 at 11:21 pm

#79 Steve French on 09.05.17 at 9:38 pm
Smoking Man’s about to get b—h slapped by Hurricane Irma!

Lucky climate change is a lieberal Chinese hoax eh Smokey?

By the way there’s another one, Hurricane Jose, on its way after Irma…
..

Im not getting bitch slapped. Not an idiot and got the puppy’s with me. I’ll never risk those pouches lives. Love them.

I’m here to try and talk out my cowboy relatives to run. I have a tendency to see shit long before anyone else as demonstrated in the archives.

Making a bee line to Biloxi Mississippi Thursday Morning.

And climate change is real but it’s driven by the sun. Not man. Give your head a shake. And hold your wallet tight.

#110 DON on 09.05.17 at 11:25 pm

#105 Fake News Again on 09.05.17 at 11:02 pm

Wild Bill huh? Well “Bill” went to “Bill”derberg this past summer. And now “small biz” is getting squeezed to the delight of the mega corporations.

As usual……the media, the public, the blogs…..do not pick up on this.

Canada is doomed.
*************

Why not a tax increase on big business to be fair with small business. Trudeau can’t even provide a rationale.

Agree with him or not (not) but why is this being rushed through, why lack of effective and adequate consultation and debate. If it is such a good idea it should stand up to a thorough honest debate.

#111 For those about to flop... on 09.05.17 at 11:30 pm

Another American based article from howmuch,but someone on here might glean something from it…

M43BC

“Spending Compares to the Average Joe’s

Only one out of three Americans actually knows what their monthly budget is. Why is this important? If you always worry about making it to the next paycheck, then it is time to sit down and take a hard look at all your expenses. This can help you decide how much you can afford to spend on things you need to have—like housing and healthcare—and on things you want to have—like new clothes. To get an idea of what this looks like, we created a new visualization for the budget of the typical American making about $75k per year.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/how-americans-spend-money-2017

#112 DON on 09.05.17 at 11:35 pm

#38 BC_Doc on 09.05.17 at 7:40 pm

“An office GP will treat 4/hour without breaking a sweat.”

******************
Where exactly is this 4/hour? I need a doctor.

Why not train more people who want to become Doctors. Why the limit?

#113 Smoking Man on 09.05.17 at 11:50 pm

#94 Mark on 09.05.17 at 10:10 pm
“Inflation is healthy an rising. ”

Not true. Inflation last month was 0% month over month, and trending downwards YoY.

Toronto real estate prices won’t weaken as long as the jobs and the economy is robust.

Since Toronto RE prices are weakening after reaching the apex in 2013, you’re trying to tell us that the economy isn’t robust? That the GDP number is fake? Sounds about right….
…..

Please share your drug of choice. I want some.

#114 WileE Toronto on 09.05.17 at 11:55 pm

RIP Boom

M64Wi

#115 Gary smith on 09.05.17 at 11:58 pm

#68 and 38.

Doctors arrogance and entitlement to form tax-saving incorporation is amazing. Discussion is being hijacked by a clever slight of hand. DOCTORS WILL LEAVE EN MASSE, from the a country consistently ranked best in the world.

Amazing how quickly a few percentage points have cause a knee jerk reaction by MDs-threatening what has become a pillar of Canadian life.

I guess they will have to downgrade to a Benz from a Porsche? Several MDs in my immediate family-not a Honda Civic to be seen!

NPs are restricted from becoming independent practitioners mainly via billing- in BC they can not bill MSP.

For primary care this ability is monopolized by GPs and part of the reason is he cough and cold crowd wants to protect their income from the other cough and cold crowd.

#116 NoName on 09.06.17 at 12:03 am

#98 Sue T2? on 09.05.17 at 10:36 pm
Will the 800,000 DACA “dreamer” try to continue the “dream” in Canada if they really have to leave the US?

Is Canada prepared for this possibility?

—-

Canada doesn’t like dreamers, when my daughter was in a grade school there were 3 or 4 “dreaming” kids from different families some with anchor baby, so to cut story short, all of them get deported and my daughter all of the sudden find her self with almost no friends left…

no word of the lie here

#117 FLHTK on 09.06.17 at 12:19 am

If the BOC raises rates again, there sure are a lot of people who have to renew their mortgages by next month….might start seeing some action on people tossing over the keys! Especially those who purchased 800k townhouse on 100k combine salary! I dunno. Scary to think, I’m just glad i’m not one of them! I started working more OT to pad the account. From here on in i’m going to try to have less payments for things like cars and try to cut some of the bills down…cancelled $80 cable and went with $14 dollar netflix….so far no complaints!
Should be interesting times ahead for sure

#118 Smoking Man on 09.06.17 at 12:20 am

Altho god is after me. More for sport. Basterd met his mach. Sort of likes me now. Alpha male shit.

Spare my stupid relatives and I will slow dance with you.

https://youtu.be/eJlN9jdQFSc

#119 Havanagirl on 09.06.17 at 12:32 am

#54 nonplused
Ah men brother
Ndp are thinking about getting rid of bc ferry rates so we all ride for free.. gonna be interesting

#120 IB on 09.06.17 at 12:36 am

Interesting perspective on the Toronto Bubble:

link: http://www.torontosun.com/2017/08/14/sorry-to-burst-your-bubble

#121 Dissident on 09.06.17 at 12:49 am

Oh look, here’s another thing that’s going up, against all of the doomer predictions.

Vancouver housing market.

Analyze that, y’all.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/greater-vancouver-housing-market-roars-ahead-as-condos-townhouses-gain/article36166184/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&cmpid=rss1

#122 Dissident on 09.06.17 at 12:50 am

The way things are going, I wouldn’t be surprised if the predictions are true. Some say 2 months, some say 2019.

…Analyze that, y’all.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/05/brace-yourself-for-a-market-correction-in-two-months-investment-manager.html?recirc=taboolainternal

#123 mousey on 09.06.17 at 12:56 am

No hawk. Just a noble budgie. No rate hike. Just noise.
Finished letter to MP’s about corporate tax changes and I hope everybody takes the opportunity to share their views. It does look pretty much like a done deal, but it won’t be Trudeau Redux next election if they don’t compromise.

#124 Nonplused on 09.06.17 at 1:47 am

Another post and another thought experiment for those of you armchair Moroneau’s conducting fiscal policy from the comfort of it not affecting you.

So, back in the day, I used to work construction. I was salary so it didn’t apply to me, I got to work overtime for free and the hope of a raise maybe one day, but most of the workers were hourly. The rule at that time was anything over 8 hours a day and some number of hours a week (40 I think) was “time and a half”, so if you normally got $20 an hour once you passed into overtime you got $30. Statutory holidays and another limit for hours worked that I can’t remember got you “double time” so if you made $20/hour you’d get $40. The carpenters, laborers and crane operators (he was the highest paid) loved it! The more overtime the better! The job I was on we worked 6-10’s so everyone on hourly was on overtime for at least 20 hours a week and they loved it!

Now what if Turdeau and Moroneau taxed that “Time and a half” at 50%? The take home wage is actually less than it was before, considerably. What about taxing the “double time” at 50%? Well, now you only get to take home your regular money. Rightly so many of these laborers will say “screw it I’m tired and I am going home they can finish the concrete poor without me”.

Sure, I suppose we could have tried to hire a larger crew but the job was remote and we were hiring everybody local who wasn’t stoned. Plus then we’d have had to figure out how to get 2-40 hour crews working 6 days and get something for the money. I suppose we could have gone 7 days a week but then I’d have been working 7 days a week with no overtime for me I was on salary.

So anyways I am just saying think about these things people. You can’t tax away all the incentive and expect people will still want to work. We are already at a point where most moms look at what they earn after taxes and child care (which is half more taxes that the child care provider has to pay) and decide it just isn’t worth it to work. My sister is getting by driving a school bus for $1500 for ten months a year and child support and she used to have a job but that life just isn’t worth it to her anymore once child care (half taxes) and all that is added up. Oh and by the way those child care providers are almost to a one also in the sites of Turdeau and Moroneau. Child care costs are going up.

Policies have implications, always at least 2. What you tax, however you sell it, means prices rise and economic activity goes down. It is doubtful the new Turdeau-Moroneau scheme will raise a penny more in actual taxes over time, but they will destroy a lot of economic activity.

#125 Nonplused on 09.06.17 at 2:20 am

So I just ran some numbers on our (me and wifey’s) before and after care service, which we don’t need all the time but have to book out because when I work I am state side. I figure she (care provider) makes about $45,000 a year, based on her rates and the number of kids she is allowed to have based on regulations, she has demand for more.

Her tax rate is going up due to Turdeau and Moroneau and their clever policies. Does anybody think that someone who makes $45,000 a year can absorb a large tax increase without raising their rates? Tax increases always result in higher prices. Higher prices that I am going to have to pay, and so are you if you have children in day care or before and after care. Oh and the price of some of those summer camps you (and I) use to get around the fact that I (and you) only have 3 weeks vacation but your kid has 9 or 12 if you count Christmas and Easter? Well, those are going up in price too because the operators are paying higher taxes now and also have to pay $15 an hour.

No rise in taxes can come without a rise in prices. Not even one. We will all pay for this, even those who thought they wouldn’t. That’s the nastiness of it all. Those of you who voted to raise taxes on “someone else” will just pay the tax through higher prices and you should study math a bit or maybe economics. But you won’t. Math is hard. Economics is surreal. You can’t do it either of them but you still vote as if you should.

I hope you all have some slush in the budget because it will be you that ultimately pays these higher taxes one way or another.

#126 Myra Andrews on 09.06.17 at 3:21 am

ey Broadway,Greater Vancouver on zolo is showing over 12,000

“I’m just trying to work out if this is another one of the times you are lying to me or just not telling the truth…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=Greater%20Vancouver%20&filter=1

I clicked on the link and found houses located in Surrey for sale.

Surrey (Langley, Abbotsford, North Delta, White Rock etc) is part of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.

Burnaby, Vancouver, Tri-Cities, etc are part of the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board so I think the difference in the inventory number is that often people are looking at just the GVRD, hence the smaller inventory numbers.

#127 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 4:06 am

Odds of a rate hike Sept. 6:

0%

NO BRIEFING SESSION during Media Lock-Up – Interest Rate Announcement and Monetary Policy Report.

There is a briefing session planned for Oct. 27 during Media Lock-up. Odds of a Oct. 27 rate hike:

100%

#128 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 4:39 am

MLS:

Vancouver detached sales finish 34% below the 10 year average for August.
___________________

#62 jay#2

Nice marketing article you cite written on behalf of rew.ca, a real estate search site.

The writer took advantage of an opportune sale in the past week (a very expensive 6 BD home sold distorting the Detached avg. price up to +$2.8 MM).

Possible since unit sales are so low, hence easy to distort the avg. price upwards with unit sales so low (107 so far vs. 291 in May) – that singular sale is called a “statistical outlier”.

Today, per Zolo.ca, the Detached average is down to $2.5 MM, -6% vs. 1 year ago.

Expect it to go down more as the effect of that singular “statistical outlier” no longer distorts the average.

It will go down further after the Oct. rate hike. It ought to accelerate downwards if OSFI B-20 comes into being (fewer qualified buyers).

Stop citing BS Realtor MSM articles.

#129 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 5:06 am

#58 bdwy sktrn

Past 112 days since May 17 Peak:

Vancouver total unit sales: -44%
Condo unit sales: -34%
Town unit sales: -60%
Detach unit sales: -60%
Avg. price: -16%

Vancouver total $ sales: -53%
$1.39 billion to $654.5 million

Inventory slightly down to 2,628 units with a corresponding drop in unit sales to 554.

Must be tough to be Van Realtor these days when your commission base just halved in all of 112 days, unit sales are dropping off a cliff and you have to work 3 times as hard selling condos to get the same commission from selling 1 detached.

#130 Don Smith on 09.06.17 at 5:14 am

My friend has several rental properties and mortgaged to the tune of $4,500,000.

He won’t listen to me about rates going up. Another 25 basis points coming and likely another 50 to 75 basis points hikes in 2018.

I told him every 25 basis points increase in his variable rate mortgages, lines is another $11,250 in annual interest to be paid.

When rates go higher tomorrow or October, this will be $22,500 total for 2017 and probably another $33,750 more interest in 2018.

Property taxes, water bills, gas, electricity, H.S.T, insurance, repairs and maintenance etc. keep increasing every year too.

I told him to lock in for 10 year fixed rate mortgages when they were 3.0% to 3.25% or so years back.

#131 Ian on 09.06.17 at 5:34 am

#65 Reality 1

LMFAO. I’m literally crying. That was awesome.

Thanks flop and others for explaining that code. I’m sorry to hear about Boom. I wasn’t on the blog at that point, so unfortunately didn’t get to know him. But it is a great community on here, I look forward to visiting every day. Even with Mark here lol.

#132 Ian on 09.06.17 at 5:48 am

Was thinking about The Snowboarder and Moratorium and their brainless tax plan. Read Wente’s, and even Moratorium’s piece in the Globe. Blood pressure rose rapidly.

I can’t wait until Parliament is back and the Blues can OBLITERATE these idiots. The Liberals specifically did all this nonsense in the summer so they could avoid scrutiny. First it was Khadr, and now this shit. Go Blues!!

#133 maxx on 09.06.17 at 6:11 am

#10 Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 09.05.17 at 6:09 pm

“…..I see no reason why the $CDN should be this strong. As a country we are up to our necks in personal debt, oil is foundering, and taxes are increasing. Where is the driver for growth?…”

Are you serious?!
Being up to our necks in personal debt is exactly why rates need to rise. A lot. Over the past 8+ years, the main driver of growth has been the economic cancer of debt.

In order for our economy to begin healing and strengthening, the BOC is left with no choice but to get idiot Canuckleheads to reign in debt spending.

There will never be any real economic progress without some interest rate pain and it’s way past time that fools who spend it like tap water learn the true nature of debt (it always bites) and the value of money.

As much as I wish it weren’t so, oil may be foundering, but with all of the current sabre rattling, commodities may well be in for a rally.

#134 maxx on 09.06.17 at 6:26 am

#19 Debtslavecreator on 09.05.17 at 6:41 pm

Agree 100%.

Vote accordingly.

#135 Reality 1 on 09.06.17 at 6:55 am

to # 130 Ian

Not trying to “diss” anyone here, but just wanted the community here to know that others find Mark’s postings also of questionable merit and even misleading (not necessarily his intent I believe).

Uninformed readers here may be mislead by his conclusions and I am all about getting FACTUAL info to those that do take the time to try to inform themselves and take action to better their financial position.

This blog is an important resource for many in Canada to start or further their efforts in making REALISTIC decisions that can affect their financial well being.

Ergo, if posting, we should all try to respect that mission by being accurate or bringing VALID and FACTUAL arguments to support our viewpoints when DISCUSSING an issue or point of interest.

I do believe that most post on this blog in good faith, but I think it is important to help separate “the wheat from the chaff”.

Hope I did not upset anyone here, not my intent to do so.

I cherish this forum and if I am out of line in any way, I would like to be respectfully called out on it. Sniping and petty ad hominem attacks are pointless, negative and have no place here, IMHO.

#136 Reality 1 on 09.06.17 at 7:04 am

to # 128 Dolce Vita

Many thanks for your informative postings and comments attached thereto.

It gives a real counterbalance to the crap / tainted/ manipulated data and opinion spun by those with vested interests in misleading the public.

I hope you will continue to post your data and thoughts – along with Flop you guys (and others) really assist us in deciphering the true picture.

I would encourage others here to post if they have FACTUAL data or analysis based thereon or if they have links which can help all here.

Overall, it is a good group and we should all try to make it better – in true blue Canadian fashion.

Again, thanks.

#137 Victor V on 09.06.17 at 7:14 am

Toronto home prices in bear market as sales sink 34.8% in August

http://www.bnn.ca/toronto-home-prices-in-bear-market-as-sales-sink-34-8-in-august-1.848463

Canada’s largest real estate market slipped into a bear market last month as Ontario’s plan to cool runaway home prices continued taking hold in Toronto.

The average selling price across the Greater Toronto Area in August was $732,292. That was three per cent above year-ago levels, but 20.5 per cent below the April peak of $920,791.

It marked the fourth straight month of sequential price declines as would-be buyers moved to the sidelines waiting to see how the provincial government’s so-called Fair Housing Plan, built on taxing foreign speculators and 15 other measures, would shake out.

#138 Reality 1 on 09.06.17 at 7:17 am

to # 119 IB

great link for its price appreciation analysis and perspective that confirms that renovations are NOT accounted for in the rise of the general price levels.

very important and informative article that everyone should take the time to read.
thanks !

#139 Victor V on 09.06.17 at 7:22 am

47% of Canadians living paycheque to paycheque, survey finds

http://www.bnn.ca/47-of-canadians-living-paycheque-to-paycheque-survey-finds-1.848429

TORONTO – A new survey by the Canadian Payroll Association suggests nearly half of workers are living paycheque to paycheque due to soaring spending and debt levels.

The poll found that 47 per cent of respondents said it would be difficult to meet their financial obligations if their paycheque was delayed by even a single week.

The survey, which polled 4,766 Canadian employees between June 27 and Aug. 5, also found that 35 per cent said they feel overwhelmed by their level of debt.

For the first time in the survey’s nine-year history, more respondents found mortgages on principal residences the most difficult debt to pay down, with 32 per cent of respondents selecting this option compared to 23 per cent who cited credit card debt.

#140 Reality 1 on 09.06.17 at 7:37 am

# 107 Don

Agree with your assessment.

IMHO, the spikes in various RE markets reinforced financially undisciplined Canadians’ delusional belief that
RE is / was bulletproof and spurred an alarming increase in debt accumulation, chiefly through RE based lending (i.e. HELOCS and LOCs) based on the rapid appreciation of their collateral (i.e. their primary collateral – their home) .

The BOC, (panicked by the incoming data that they had been giving increased importance toof late) decided quickly to reverse their loose monetary policy in view of the RATE of increasing indebtedness by households.

Hence the about face on interest rates and restriction of credit through new policies.

Much too late and therefore the severity of the credit policy implementation by OSFI.

Largely uninformed and undisciplined, Canadians by and large missed / are missing the implications of this to their
financial detriment.

Now we will all pay in one form or another and only the minority of disciplined and prudent will escape the inevitable consequences.

Could get pretty ugly for some personally , but for the country, potentially a greater blow.

#141 IHCTD9 on 09.06.17 at 8:31 am

#307 MF on 09.05.17 at 4:42 pm
IH,

Dubai? A better climate? Lol

Aside from being in the desert, Dubai is pretty much one of the last places on earth I would move to if I were wealthy.

I agree with you on some parts of the United States, but the other poster was correct. Some people are in for a real culture shock if they move to the US.

MF
__________________________

Ah yes, it’s hot there. I would not just pack up and move there either as I like 4 seasons and Winter.

But would you move over there because the move MADE you wealthy?

That’s the story for the guy I know. Regular IT type guy goes there and now drives a Ferrari and a couple other vehicles he surely would not own if he stayed here. Pretty Western friendly there for an Islamic country, low taxes, good looking city, and the laws there are much better for Men overall.

I can think of quite a few MUCH less desirable places to live that cover huge swaths of the planet, and you sure won’t be making any great money in these areas either. From what I know, for a single male, Dubai ain’t a bad place to be.

#142 TurnerNation on 09.06.17 at 8:42 am

Well if people doubt our elite rulers ultimately want 100% of our income via taxation and interest…why’d the Feds kill tax break on Monthly Transit passes? Affecting the lower income levels.

What about the environment – encouraging transit use?
Total BS, they just want war-making with its scorched earth polluting.

Smart people are researching Silent Weapons.
Why, at 10am EST today they will fire again.

(I’d lose it if I had 1/2 mill + in mortgage debt for a pile of bricks. Game over.)
Heads down into your Facebook feed everyone.

#143 Victor V on 09.06.17 at 8:43 am

Breaking: Canada International Trade Deficit $3.04B vs estimated $3.3B deficit

#144 Guy Fawkes on 09.06.17 at 9:09 am

Flop you are a good man!

M41ON
M64WI

#145 For those about to flop... on 09.06.17 at 10:00 am

21 am
ey Broadway,Greater Vancouver on zolo is showing over 12,000

“I’m just trying to work out if this is another one of the times you are lying to me or just not telling the truth…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=Greater%20Vancouver%20&filter=1”

I clicked on the link and found houses located in Surrey for sale.

Surrey (Langley, Abbotsford, North Delta, White Rock etc) is part of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.

Burnaby, Vancouver, Tri-Cities, etc are part of the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board so I think the difference in the inventory number is that often people are looking at just the GVRD, hence the smaller inventory numbers.

////////////////////////////////

Thanks for the explanation,Myra.

I don’t recall him saying exactly where the numbers were for.

We like to razz each other and present different sides of the real estate market.

My conclusion was that he had probably decided to vultch and buy 2200 properties…

M43BC

#146 Algonquin Settler on 09.06.17 at 10:02 am

And up she goes.

#147 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 10:13 am

So much for no press briefing…I guess duck and cover the new norm at BoC:

Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 1 per cent.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/09/fad-press-release-2017-09-06/

#148 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 10:25 am

#135 Reality 1

Thank you very, very much.

I have an Excel workbook with all the numbers, all I have to do is update them, takes a few minutes. Update from price sites daily.

I like crunching the numbers.

And yes, Flop is great too.

I like his insights, different than my number crunching “there it is, you decide what’s going on” approach.

#149 Balmuto on 09.06.17 at 10:29 am

Good call Garth. I’m just glad I locked in last year for five at 2.39%.

#150 M on 09.06.17 at 10:29 am

So Poloz rose.
I was wrong.
I still can’t fathom why would he rose…since he’ll have to debase 6 months down the road…

#151 Oft deleted much maligned stock picker on 09.06.17 at 10:30 am

#38 BC DOC…..none of those ” Nurse Practitioners” for me thanks. I once saw one when my doctor had stepped over to the hospital for an emergency….the results were both comical and pitiful. I had eaten a large pomegranate….rich in citric acid…..I was left with a burning sensation in my bladder….had stopped at the doctors office for some relief. I told the NP the whole story…but he wasn’t having any of it. I was immediately diagnosed simultaneously with both Renal Cancer and Bladder cancer and the goofball was wanting to send me off for a battery of tests…..which I declined…..knowing some mild prescription for my bladder irritation could likely be had at the pharmacy…which when taken relieved my symptoms. Imagine some poor sap who might have thought the NP was qualified to dispense medical advice….and went home to announce to his family he was dying from cancer…according to the Liberal Nurse Practitioner. …????? Trudeau better get his crap together……before the cancer clinics overflow with misdiagnosed patients .

#152 Leo Trollstoy on 09.06.17 at 10:32 am

The Canadian economy is BOOOMING!

Deflation nowhere!

#153 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 10:32 am

#65 Reality 1

Good one. Will be looking for him there.

Go to that site daily to read what the Right is up to and up in arms about.

#154 Leo Trollstoy on 09.06.17 at 10:35 am

#134 Reality 1 on 09.06.17 at 6:55 am

…just wanted the community here to know that others find Mark’s postings also of questionable merit and even misleading (not necessarily his intent I believe).

True. He drinks his own Kool Aid

Dangerous for newbies to this blog and the uninformed!

#155 Ian on 09.06.17 at 10:40 am

THE PLOZZER HAS STUCK!!!! 1%!

Ultrahawk cruising the sky for more debt-laden victims on the ground!

#156 News release on 09.06.17 at 10:49 am

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-1.4276837

#157 Iconoclast on 09.06.17 at 10:52 am

If T2 gets away with his new tax, he should go after dividend tax credits next.

And it will be a slam dunk. After all, it’s not fair to have two classes of taxpayer.

I wonder if that would threaten his own cashflow?

#158 Dissident on 09.06.17 at 11:02 am

ACK! Another rate hike.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-hikes-rate-to-one-per-cent

#159 Balmuto on 09.06.17 at 11:06 am

“True. He drinks his own Kool Aid

Dangerous for newbies to this blog and the uninformed!”

It’s pretty telling how he’ll point to one month of 0.0% change in the CPI as iron-clad evidence of a weak economy but will dismiss three months of 4.5% GDP growth as statistical noise. He’s the perfect example of cognitive bias in action.

The poster in question has reportedly been asked to leave several sites over the past few years for precisely this reason. I am aware of that and will act when necessary. — Garth

#160 Dissident on 09.06.17 at 11:15 am

Rate hike is reported to continue the price softening in GTA.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/toronto-home-prices-extend-torrid-slide-from-peak/article36181877/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

#161 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 11:24 am

Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 1 per cent.

This had no press release briefing, normally there is one.

Hilarious watching rudderless, 2 bricks short of a full load, MSM explain this w/o a press briefing. Dumb and dumber.

For example, CBC Business uses a video for a recent $750 K purchase, 10% down and calculates how much payments rose with 0.25% and basically the theme is: how will they ever afford it if there are more increases.

Idiots forgot that those people in their Armageddon scenario had to go thru a +2% stress test to qualify since it is an insured mortgage.

BNN worse. All they can basically say is “oh, the horror of it all.” Like watching the video version of the Hindenburg radio announcement.

Why I come to this Blog daily, you get some brains writing it, that you can count on…thanks Garth for that.

#162 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.17 at 11:25 am

these #’s are available for all at rebgv.

2012-At 17,567, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS®…

2013-The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver is 16,027

2014-The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 14,768

2015-The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the region’s MLS® is 10,897, a 26.2 per cent decline compared to August 2014 and a 5.3 per cent decline compared to July 2015.

2016-The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver is 8,506,

2017-The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,807

#163 Fish on 09.06.17 at 11:26 am

Just noticed, Even my bank cutting back on the business hours open 1 hour later and closed on Sunday starting mid month

#164 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.17 at 11:27 am

The poster in question has reportedly been asked to leave several sites over the past few years for precisely this reason. I am aware of that and will act when necessary
————————
mark, tell us again about 604 prices topping in 2013!!!

#165 Fake News Again on 09.06.17 at 11:33 am

#163 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.17 at 11:27 am
The poster in question has reportedly been asked to leave several sites over the past few years for precisely this reason. I am aware of that and will act when necessary
————————
mark, tell us again about 604 prices topping in 2013!!!

____________________________________

How could Mark or anyone else know the Govt would “Do Nothing” whilst civil/criminal laws were broken allowing the RE market to rise.

#166 LL on 09.06.17 at 11:34 am

# 12

…”When businesses must give that increase to their minimum wage workers, what do you think will happen to the guys now making $15 or $16? They’ll want $18 or $19.

And the guys making $18 or $19 and hour will want $21 or $22″….

Simple, robots will replace human workers. Look at MC Donald with their new order panel.
Japan have already robot waitress!

#167 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 11:34 am

#161 bdwy sktrn

Good data.

I cannot find it at REBGV Listed vs. Sold:

http://www.rebgv.org/listed-vs-sold

Please provide URL. I use that data to compare to Zolo.ca stats.

#168 Darryl on 09.06.17 at 11:34 am

#126 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 4:06 am
Odds of a rate hike Sept. 6:
0%
————————————————————–
That didn’t take long for you to be wrong Eh?

#169 Damifino on 09.06.17 at 11:36 am

#156 Iconoclast

If T2 gets away with his new tax, he should go after dividend tax credits next. And it will be a slam dunk. After all, it’s not fair to have two classes of taxpayer.
——————————–

And right after that, they can tackle the most lopsided tax break in Canada: the capital gains tax exemption on principal residences, so renters will no longer be hosed.

#170 LL on 09.06.17 at 11:38 am

https://gizmodo.com/robots-are-already-replacing-human-workers-at-an-alarmi-1793718198

#171 Kootenay Hippie on 09.06.17 at 11:39 am

Go Preferreds!

#172 BillyBob on 09.06.17 at 11:41 am

#307 MF on 09.05.17 at 4:42 pm
IH,

Dubai? A better climate? Lol

Aside from being in the desert, Dubai is pretty much one of the last places on earth I would move to if I were wealthy.

==================================

Hmmm. As one who lived in Dubai for just less than a decade, allow me to weigh in?

I can attest that my time in Dubai allowed me to far, far out-earn and save beyond what would have been possible in Canada. At one point I peeked at one of those Ernst & Young website tools that show what your tax rate is in each province and what your net will be versus your gross. When I realized I would have to gross over 450,000CAD to replicate what I was making in Dubai, suddenly I didn’t mind the heat so much. I could have worked for 40 years in Canada and never made a fraction of what I saved in ten there. Tax-free and pegged to the US dollar is hard to beat.

But money aside, I also had some pretty fun times. Flew around the entire globe multiple times (airline pilot). My logbook showed over 140 countries visited when I left. My former employer had workers from over 160 countries so yeahhh….it was pretty damn fun being a single male there.

I only left because ten years was enough, and in some ways the golden years of the sandpit are behind it. But I didn’t go back to Canada. After getting used to having money and not being a slave to the taxman I’m never going back. I was able to leverage the experience I gained there into a less extreme lifestyle that suits me better now.

So when I see whiny millennials being dismissive of an experience they know nothing about, in a place they know nothing about beyond a Discovery Channel episode, I have to smile to myself. Maybe instead of endless complaining about the lack of opportunities in Canada and the high costs and taxes and on and on – try looking for something less conventional outside the borders? Perhaps not Dubai, but it’s a big old world out there. Yes, it’s risky, but it also has the chance of paying off massively. It did for me.

If I was a professional with any portable skill in Canada I would be looking hard elsewhere, even BEFORE the tax grab. Now it’s a no-brainer.

#173 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.17 at 11:42 am

#164 Fake News Again on 09.06.17 at 11:33 am

How could Mark or anyone else know the Govt would “Do Nothing” whilst civil/criminal laws were broken allowing the RE market to rise.
—————————–
rear view mirror here. it’s post 2013 i think.

#174 Reality 1 on 09.06.17 at 11:50 am

to anyone with a clue

Does anyone here have any ideas about the likely path of interest rate increases Poloz will take in view of the recent strength in the CAD ( Canadian dollar) ?

I have a few ideas, but would be interested to hear other informed persons’ thoughts.

I am just very concerned that Poloz has gone from being a currency ‘weakener’ to being a currency ‘strengthener’ relatively rapidly , seemingly without care for the consequences for CAD.

#175 Dissident on 09.06.17 at 11:52 am

Garth,

If we have a variable rate, should we lock it the heck in? We still have a chance. Lenders don’t move instantly. Takes them a couple days/weeks to move in step with BOC. I don’t see why they wouldn’t increase their prime rate if they just increased it a month ago. Our variable went from 2.3 to 2.55% just recently. This hike would bring us to 2.8% variable. So if we can lock in at 2.84% fixed for 4 years, with more hikes to come, that seems like the logical thing to do…am I right?

#176 AlexS on 09.06.17 at 11:54 am

First time posting hear, been educating myself on this blog for a little while now.

=======
Yet every news paper out there continues to downplay the fall….”slow down recovery”, “demand will come back” with supporting quotes from TREB and the like…

Folks in the office still in denial, I have only converted one co-worker to see the light…and guess what he dropped the price on his Richmond Hill townhouse twice as he tried to sell and just pulled out of the market choosing to stay.

People truly are in denial, nearly every other day I find myself with an audience braking down the basics yet they choose to ignore or simply don’t comprehend…I believe it’s a little bit of both.

They don’t get the bottom line: me a young professional making above what the median Toronto household makes, and my wife who doesn’t make much but slightly over 40k a year, simply cannot afford to get a place big enough to start a family…

Yet people continue to argue that it will only go up, this is a bump…everyone from this 350 people office to friends at BBQs, none of whom can really afford to get into the market…

Perhaps dumping 60%+ on dwellings is considered to be the new affordable rate?

Insane…

#177 Fed-up on 09.06.17 at 11:59 am

#151 Leo Trollstoy on 09.06.17 at 10:32 am
The Canadian economy is BOOOMING!

Deflation nowhere

————————————
Put a sock in it Trotsky. We all know the figures are based on spending from debt binging from 1-2 quarters ago which has already started to dive and will soon collapse.

Your posts are beyond annoying.

#178 Dups on 09.06.17 at 11:59 am

North America especially Canada is a shit show. Enjoy your higher rates. We benefit on the storms hitting the oil refineries down south. We think our economy is so strong. Is it really?

#179 WUL on 09.06.17 at 12:03 pm

Our host has been discussing real estate purchase and sale agreements being breached as buyers walk from deals and the litigation which ensues. It has spurred debate among commenters about the sanctity of contracts and the importance of rigour in enforcement of bargains we make.

A short article here on how uncertainty with enforcement of contracts in our justice system affects all of us, the economy, business and commerce:

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/small-business/sb-managing/why-you-should-care-that-our-civil-justice-system-is-broken/article36112054/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

#180 Gravy Train on 09.06.17 at 12:05 pm

#54 Nonplused on 09.05.17 at 8:42 pm

“I do not believe the 4.5% growth rate number. Where could such outstanding growth have come from? Are they including the costs of fighting forest fires in BC in the number?”

Assuming your questions are not rhetorical, the link below has all the details:
http://statcan.gc.ca/eng/start

“Canada only has 36 million people including kids and retirees and most of them don’t work at all or work for the government.”

As of July 2017 there are 15.6 million employees and 2.8 million self-employed (for a total of 18.4 million) in the Canadian economy. Only 3.7 million are public sector employees, or 20.1% of the total employed—but don’t let facts get in the way of a good story! :)
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/170804/t002a-eng.htm

#181 Ogopogo on 09.06.17 at 12:11 pm

Absolutely thrilled by this rate increase news! Saw it first thing as I stumbled out of bed in smoke-filled Kelowna, which looks more like Beijing today than the “sunshine tax” lie that the dirty realtors here try to sell the unsuspecting fools… But I digress.

Rake hike, sweet! Let’s see them rise swiftly and violently. Will have to invest on lots of popcorn to watch the unfolding RE apocalypse. As our friend here likes to say, happy housing crash everyone!

#182 Capt. Serious on 09.06.17 at 12:17 pm

BOOM! Canadian real estate is toast. The central banks are doing their all together everyone hold hands and rise act. Normalization is now the name of the game. They’re going to keep going as long as the economy can stand it. So far, so good.

#183 Ole Doberman on 09.06.17 at 12:21 pm

http://www.bnn.ca/poloz-gave-canadians-a-bold-wake-up-call-pattie-lovett-reid-1.848747

Sounds like the bank is not done

the Illuminati wants your house.

#184 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 12:26 pm

#167 Darryl

Tell me about it.

What happens when you believe Don Pittis at CBC about no press briefing = no rate hike, based on historical precedence.

Why “duck and cover” the new norm at BoC…LOL.

Actually, to be truthfull I liked it, it was great watching clueless MSM trying to explain it w/o a press briefing to quote. It shows them to be witless.

You know Darryl, I usually rely on my own thinking and research and for once I trusted someone in the MSM….Mia Culpa.

In Garth I trust.

#185 LL on 09.06.17 at 12:29 pm

# 171 BillyBob

What was your job in Dubai?

#186 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.17 at 12:30 pm

us 10yr note 2.07 today – down from 2.5 in dec 2106

rates are going where?

#187 aa6 on 09.06.17 at 12:31 pm

In Canada what doctors make is a political question. The same as in almost all areas of our economy which are so heavily regulated and licensed that market forces only play a minor role in prices.

In BC our government believes GP doctors should make about the same as teachers & nurses, when factoring in the total compensation. Per hour worked the teachers & nurses likely come out ahead.

Now is this right.. personally I believe a GP doctor should make more than a nurse. But my opinion like everyone else’s is completely irrelevant. As in BC the government controls health care and the minister of health determines reimbursements for doctors, and the minister determines what nurses will make through negotiations with their union.

In our socialist society prices and the allocation of resources are determined primarily by the government.

#188 LL on 09.06.17 at 12:33 pm

Director rates affect variable mortgage.

Canada Obligations rates (taux obligataire) affect fixed mortgage.

Garth can you explain both please?

#189 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.17 at 12:33 pm

dolce – quotes taken from monthly stats releases.

choose month/yr from drop down.
ie. http://www.rebgv.org/monthly-reports?month=August&year=2012

#190 FahtCoot on 09.06.17 at 12:35 pm

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
– Ludwig von Mises

#191 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 12:38 pm

#173 Reality 1

I think debtslavecreator a few days ago may have nailed it.

Maybe another rate hike in October. See if GDP remains as BoC forecast (taking into account rate hike impact on RE and related finance sectors lowering GDP).

If GDP craters beyond their lower forecasts, then back to a lower rate and more QE in early 2018.

Debtslavecreator thinks it will be too late by then and we will be in an ugly recession and went on to say it looks ugly under the hood for most Canadians (I assume the nick means involved in bank loans).

Well, we’ll see if all these doom and gloom $300 more per month in expenses will crater many Canadians forecasts come true.

I think it will but hopefully not as bad as debtslavecreator says and whom also hopes for a better outcome. I mean:

33% of Cdns. have no debt; however, 25% have a dung load of debt. That is beyond the 8-10% critical mass that did the US in back in ’08/’09.

Garth: Goog question by Reality 1.

GARTH, maybe next topic:

Where do we go from here?

#192 Spaccone on 09.06.17 at 12:40 pm

#27 Shawn on 09.05.17 at 7:11 pm
$CAD strength has almost nothing to do with the Canadian economy. Practically all other EM currencies are up against DXY. The real story is USD weakness. If it goes the other way, the headlines will change. Currency is a lagging indicator, the stock market is a leading indicator. What’s telling is the poor relative TSX performance. What is this fortelling?

=============================================

Foretelling a world of hurt for the BoC when it pops up like a beach ball pushed deep under water and BoC can’t claim inflation is below 2% anymore.

/tinfoil hat off

#193 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 12:41 pm

#185 bdwy sktrn

Variable and HELOC rates will go up in Canada.

BoC affects those rates not fixed, well, for now.

#194 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 09.06.17 at 12:42 pm

http://mitsloan.mit.edu/newsroom/articles/rethinking-how-the-housing-crisis-happened/

Thought the above would be fitting for today… The exact same thing is happening down here again, Bubble 2.0. I think the only factor that could change the outcome this time around is the fact that demand is so high due to the “artificially ahem I mean, artfully constrained” supply. IE “smart growth, sustainable development” limiting available land and ability of private properties to be divided. Don’t get me wrong I don’t want to see concrete everywhere either but how do we find the middle ground? From following our growth management crisis here in SW WA I’ve learned there’s just no easy answer with suburbia. Not to mention that those in positions of power within the county (municipality) will stop at nothing, even illegal means, to take away property rights. Its gotten to the point that there are large groups sueing the county (yep this is USA) and if I recall correctly, the county being prosecuted for wrongful doing / mismanagement / obscuring information / violating growth management act procedures. Sheesh.

My “news outlet” is the GF comments, sounds like Poloz hiked -hallelujah- even if only for a bit of lee way to drop again-roll eyes-

In other news, anyone more educated than I care to weigh in on the article link below?
“China’s move will allow exporters such as Russia and Iran to circumvent U.S. sanctions by trading in yuan”

https://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Commodities/China-sees-new-world-order-with-oil-benchmark-backed-by-gold?n_cid=NARAN012

#195 CJBob on 09.06.17 at 12:46 pm

#126 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 4:06 am
Odds of a rate hike Sept. 6:

0%

NO BRIEFING SESSION during Media Lock-Up – Interest Rate Announcement and Monetary Policy Report.

There is a briefing session planned for Oct. 27 during Media Lock-up. Odds of a Oct. 27 rate hike:

100%
______________

hubris: noun – Excessive pride or self-confidence

#196 alsak on 09.06.17 at 12:49 pm

#173
one clue for Polozski rapid increases, currency manipulation Claus in NAFTA negotiation

#197 KLNR on 09.06.17 at 12:53 pm

@#171 BillyBob

Smug is to you what whiny is to millenials lol

#198 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.17 at 1:01 pm

still asking 1.6m for the cheapest teardown in the dirty drive area.

supply remains drier than dubai’s weed supply.

in 2013 i had a guy from squamish come down to sell me a truck. i remember as he surveyed the street he asked me if this was what million dollar houses looked like.
i said some of these have passed 1m, most have not.

tear downs then were around 0.6-0.7, today 1.5minimum.
nice house then 1.2m, today 2.1m.

no softening of note, sideways or +/-3% is the worst our blogdog sleuth can come up with (luxury rmd condos excepted) hell, the next 5 years of sideways would be fine.
…..

our first place went down for 3-4 years after we purchased in 96, at the time we did not even know or give it any thought.
(i was busy turning a few grand into enough to completely pay off the mtge in 99 in with msft/intc/nt etc -sadly i held way too long and had to pay the mtge the old fashioned way).. lot value about 6x now.
even at these craaaazy prices, van re is a very safe long term bet.
little supply, big demand. no change here.

#199 ShawnG in TO on 09.06.17 at 1:04 pm

horses bolted
barn door now closing
chaos inside the barn
— another achievement brought to you by your government.

M42ON

M64WI

#200 jeff on 09.06.17 at 1:04 pm

“taxes are going up for almost two million small business owners”

Good point. No one in the media has talked about the impact of this on housing.

I estimate that most accountants and lawyers have been deferring 500-700$ of taxes PER MONTH using a corporation. So the kids starting their profession and looking to buy a house or condo suddenly have 500-700$ less for the mortgage payment.

This will have an impact on houses/condo selling for 700k – 1.2M, the price range that professionals go for.

I think it’s a good time to keep building your downpayment. The stars are aligning against housing right now. And buy some preferred shares with the ETF CPD. They go up with rising interest rates.

#201 FahtCoot on 09.06.17 at 1:05 pm

All gov released stats are manipulated.

CPI is understated and consequently real GDP is overstated. They have to increase rates so they have a lever when the economy tanks..

They are tightening into weakness but they have no choice now. LOOK OUT BELOW

#202 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 1:05 pm

#194 CJBob

Twitter or Comment Don Pittis at CBC whom said that and I was dumb enough to believe.

As for you and your buddy Darryl, 20/20 hindsight your strong suits.

#203 kothar on 09.06.17 at 1:07 pm

# 12

…”When businesses must give that increase to their minimum wage workers, what do you think will happen to the guys now making $15 or $16? They’ll want $18 or $19.

And the guys making $18 or $19 and hour will want $21 or $22″….

Simple, robots will replace human workers. Look at MC Donald with their new order panel.
Japan have already robot waitress!

—————————————————————–
Also companies like Walmart/Amazon are investing in RFID tags on all items. You just go through a big scanner at front and all items are charged that you have automatically!

#204 n1tro on 09.06.17 at 1:10 pm

#171 BillyBob on 09.06.17 at 11:41 am

“If I was a professional with any portable skill in Canada I would be looking hard elsewhere, even BEFORE the tax grab. Now it’s a no-brainer.”
————————————–
Thanks for sharing your story. Something I am always actively looking out for when travelling. I just think a lot of people in Canada can’t make the move even if they wanted to due to lack of portable skills. In addition many don’t have enough buffer room savings to take flight thus keeping them in Canada doing the same old while hating on others who made it out or have the means to make it out.

#205 Ian on 09.06.17 at 1:13 pm

#173 Reality 1 re: CAD strength

Very important question! I was thinking about this over the last week.

My ‘sense’ was the market was forward pricing the CAD for the coming rises, in other words we would get to 80 pretty quickly and then a plateau would appear.

However, I just pulled up a graph of FXC on Stockcharts to take a look. Both the daily and weekly chart with the tons of technical overlays I use do not support my thoughts at all. It’s rock and roll bullish. No slowdown in the CAD rise in sight. The chart seems to be foretelling a push to 85 and beyond.

So this brings up a major policy squeeze play that the Plozzer and the Wilko will have to analyse very carefully: I believe the BoC is quickly running into a ‘currency too strong’ dilemma that will quickly affect our ability to export. I think they will lean towards continuing their rising rate path however, not because of GDP growth, but because they want to pop the bubble.

My dad and I are both engineers and he started a manufacturing business in Ontario back in the 60s, and 80-90% of our customers were in the US by sales volume. His feeling over the years was that ‘high 70s’ was the sweet spot that optimised our abilities to export. So given we are ‘only’ on 80c now, I would think the Plozzer will be comfortable running this up to 90. So the rises continue. At that point they hit the ‘red zone’ and may have to chill out.

So

#206 Ian on 09.06.17 at 1:15 pm

PS ignore the ‘so’ in my comment at the end.

#207 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.17 at 1:16 pm

171 and the other ,

billybob is a smug airline pilot.
with the job it’s somewhat justified imo.

he is a bit bitter he can’t swoop in to yvr and scoop a sweet west side house with his bags of cash.

but.. he’s right about there being many $opportunitie$ outside of canada for the able and willing.

#208 Reality 1 on 09.06.17 at 1:16 pm

to # 175 Alex S

A bit of advice from someone who has experienced / witnessed illogical behaviour in similar manias – FORGET IT.

You will only alienate others before the inevitable and be seen as a reminder of their bad decision after the fact.
A losing proposition.
Don’t be that guy.

Keep your own counsel and don’t espouse any course of action – there is no upside for you – no one will thank you.

“Experience operates a dear (expensive) school, but some can learn at no other.” comes to mind.

You can look like a fool in two ways in a bubble dynamic – either before peak – by not participating or after peak – being a participant / bagholder.

Be thankful that you can do the math and have the personal discipline to keep your nascent family safe.

Very best of luck to you and yours.

#209 Gravy Train on 09.06.17 at 1:20 pm

#126 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 4:06 am

“Odds of a rate hike Sept. 6: 0%.”

Oops! Er, um, you’re not a statistician, are you? :)

#210 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 1:21 pm

#188 bdwy sktrn

Thank you very much.

I use those to ensure Zolo.ca not exercising any BS factor on unit sales and listings.

I saw those news releases and admittedly, glazed over.

Thanks for the time spent on work putting the data together that you did.

What I cannot understand is why in the last week or so, REBGV not posting any Listed vs. Sold charts?

A reliable source to comprehend, in part, what is going on RE wise in YVR.

#211 IHCTD9 on 09.06.17 at 1:31 pm

#34 AB Boxster on 09.05.17 at 7:28 pm
Gee, that sounds like a glowing review of the Canadian economy and its fundamentals today and for the future.

I guess that’s why Canada’s stock market is about the worst in the world in terms of performance this year, and likely for the remainder of the year.

Makes no sense to increase the amount of maple in the portfolio given these fundamentals.

Well at least our diversity makes us strong.
Yeah. Sure it does.

Canada may be one of the most diverse countries, but Canadians are
some of the most financially inept as well.

The economy is overdebted, overleveraged, over taxed and could soon be toast when the Liberals screw up the NAFTA talks by focusing on transgendered, feminist, climate change gender equity priorities.

Yep, those priorities will jumpstart the economy for sure.
____________________________________

As long as Canadians keep voting in (or are too lazy to get off their asses and vote at all) brain dead blockheads like Wynne and Trudeau it’s a one way street.

#212 Leo Trollstoy on 09.06.17 at 1:38 pm

#112 Smoking Man on 09.05.17 at 11:50 pm
#94 Mark on 09.05.17 at 10:10 pm

Please share your drug of choice. I want some.

Unemployment may cause depression

#213 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 1:47 pm

#197 bdwy sktrn

I’m torn on the whole YVR RE wealth topic.

I remember back in the early 80s interviewing for a job and I could pick up a very nice townhome for $70 K or so, today avg. price about $1.3 MM (turned the job down, other a guy interviewing had lost his job, had a family and they offered it to me instead with no family, too altruistic for my own good – it was to run that New West plant that makes dung paper now I think).

Then it crashed RE wise and took quite some time to recover. Then again, no offshore money then and also YVR pretty pastoral then until Asians started coming in.

In the long run, you are probably correct. But for me, retired and financially secure, I would not invest in YVR right now. It’s too unstable.

I think what you have there right now is a stand-off between buyers and sellers and I think the buyers are winning with List Prices dropping for quite some time now, true, a few % per month, more like death by a thousand cuts.

Let’s be honest, if you hate Winter, the only place to live in is YVR but the cost is prohibitive now.

My gut tells me it will drop again after another round of rate hikes and if OSFI B-20 happens, the latter will drop a lot of buyers out of the market.

It’s a 50-50 market to me YVR RE. You did well but I would wait out the next quarter for sure and then, maybe decide to buy (I am mulling this from Italia). I think if GDP tanks and Jobs take a hit, after people bail at any price, then would be the time to guy.

I think that is coming by early net year, not now. Ya, I know you show stats that look like the bottom has arrived, I don’t think so.

I’m waiting to see what happens with another rate increase and OSFI B-20.

#214 cdn vs usd on 09.06.17 at 1:55 pm

yet ANOTHER example of why its better to not listen to pundits.

this blog was talking about the cdn dropping to .65c months ago. The comment section was full of people who concurred

humbling isnt?

You must be talking about the CBC blog. — Garth

#215 Howard on 09.06.17 at 2:01 pm

Since most Canadians are math-challenged, I wonder how many will understand that interest rates have now doubled in that space of 2 months?

#216 n1tro on 09.06.17 at 2:02 pm

In other news, anyone more educated than I care to weigh in on the article link below?
“China’s move will allow exporters such as Russia and Iran to circumvent U.S. sanctions by trading in yuan”

https://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Commodities/China-sees-new-world-order-with-oil-benchmark-backed-by-gold?n_cid=NARAN012
———————————–
China is making a move to be the dominant power in the world. All the moves they have been doing are calculated for the end game of being #1.

1. build up of military, weapons, and technology since the late 80s
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-shangrila/
2. claiming that island (and the 200 miles around it) in middle of south china sea
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/28/beijing-military-bases-south-china-sea-ready
3. currency manipulation which boosts exports
https://www.nationaleconomicseditorial.com/2016/12/03/chinas-trade-war-against-america/
4. Buying up of resources. Not heavily reported but they are buying up Africa
http://www.businessinsider.com/map-chinese-investments-in-africa-2012-8

The list goes on. In the meantime, the west is occupied with diversity, transgender, taking down statues, etc nonsense.

China also takes the non politically correct approach to dealing what it see as potential problems https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/25/china-bans-religious-names-for-muslims-babies-in-xinjiang
Where’s the outrage from SJWs or sanctions from the UN?

As for why an “oil for yuan backed by gold”? Easy. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend”. Hate by the US for places like Russia has limited the Russian economy which has oil as a main export. By buying the oil which China needs for world domination and backing it with gold as oppose the word of a central bank(s) which in the past has had no issue with devaluing its own currency gives “out of favor” countries that extra reason to trade with China.

Better tell your kids to ease up on the social media and start in on some after school mandarin classes.

#217 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.06.17 at 2:03 pm

Interest rates up and housing prices to continue crashing

Happy HAPPY Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#218 nope on 09.06.17 at 2:06 pm

this blog, garth. do you really need a link?

#219 Millionaire Next Door on 09.06.17 at 2:08 pm

Backing up the truck on rate-reset prefs in Jan / Feb 2016 is turning out to be one of the best moves I’ve made.

#220 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.06.17 at 2:15 pm

Capt. Serious on 09.06.17 at 12:17 pm
BOOM! Canadian real estate is toast. The central banks are doing their all together everyone hold hands and rise act. Normalization is now the name of the game. They’re going to keep going as long as the economy can stand it. So far, so good.

This is what the shyster either don’t want to understand or don’t want to admit because they are evil monsters. Shysters have ruined thousands of lives as RE has crashed over 20% in the GTA and will Crash more. These shysters tricked people to committing financial suicide. Shame on you evil shysters. Sunny days are coming back! :-)

#221 Gravy Train on 09.06.17 at 2:16 pm

#112 Smoking Man on 09.05.17 at 11:50 pm
#104 waiting on the westcoast on 09.05.17 at 10:59 pm
#94 Mark on 09.05.17 at 10:10 pm

“Please share your drug of choice. I want some.”

When even SM is making fun of you, you know you’ve hit rock bottom!

#222 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 2:17 pm

#208 Gravy Train

Read my #201 Dolce Vita post.

Add yourself to the 20/20 hindsight crowd, 3 of you last count.

Dime a dozen crowd.

#223 Howard on 09.06.17 at 2:17 pm

#197 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.17 at 1:01 pm
still asking 1.6m for the cheapest teardown in the dirty drive area.

supply remains drier than dubai’s weed supply.

in 2013 i had a guy from squamish come down to sell me a truck. i remember as he surveyed the street he asked me if this was what million dollar houses looked like.
i said some of these have passed 1m, most have not.

tear downs then were around 0.6-0.7, today 1.5minimum.
nice house then 1.2m, today 2.1m.

no softening of note, sideways or +/-3% is the worst our blogdog sleuth can come up with (luxury rmd condos excepted) hell, the next 5 years of sideways would be fine.
…..

our first place went down for 3-4 years after we purchased in 96, at the time we did not even know or give it any thought.
(i was busy turning a few grand into enough to completely pay off the mtge in 99 in with msft/intc/nt etc -sadly i held way too long and had to pay the mtge the old fashioned way).. lot value about 6x now.
even at these craaaazy prices, van re is a very safe long term bet.
little supply, big demand. no change here.

——————————

Even if true, you’d then have to live in Vancouver. A city with no economy beyond lululemon, no cuisine beyond sushi, no nightlife beyond weed in Stanley Park. Basically, dead-but-alive.

I think most people with $2 million to burn on housing would prefer a place that’s interesting, with interesting people and cultural pursuits. Vancouver is left with the few tacky nouveau-riche boring enough to enjoy the place.

#224 45north on 09.06.17 at 2:26 pm

BillyBob: If I was a professional with any portable skill in Canada I would be looking hard elsewhere, even BEFORE the tax grab. Now it’s a no-brainer.

The Federal Government has an idea to create technology superclusters:

https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/093.nsf/eng/00003.html

I wrote to the Honourable Bill Morneau, Minister of Finance saying that his proposed tax changes are going to inhibit the creation of superclusters.

Frankly I see the proposed tax changes having a negative effect on innovation and technology somewhat similar to the cancellation of the Avro Arrow. In the case of the Avro Arrow, the best and brightest aero-space experts went to the States. I remember neighbours in North York saying that they had been laid off.

I see the story of the ant and the grasshopper played out in Bill Morneau’s tax changes. He’s the grasshopper. Prosperity is a function of the housing market – it always goes up. Technology and innovation, centres of excellence are not important indeed not needed. Well we’re about to see what happens when the housing market goes down. Centres of excellence are like the food that the ant stores up. We’re going to need them when winter comes.

#225 IHCTD9 on 09.06.17 at 2:29 pm

#54 Nonplused on 09.05.17 at 8:42 pm

A plumber is not going to do emergency calls at 2 am because your PBE plumbing broke if his tax rate is 50% on that work UNLESS YOU PAY FOR IT. Get it straight people, you will pay the taxes, not the service providers because they don’t have any money.
____________

I’m not sure what T+M are planning on gaining with these dumbass tax policy changes, but I can tell you what will happen around here. Even more work will go underground. Same as it ever was – only more and more. Tradespeople will moonlight for cash, pro’s will be doing side jobs on the weekends. Scrappers, wood cutters, amateur carpenters, curb-siders, mechanics and roofers.

There will be options for consumers going forward regarding price if you don’t “need a receipt”. Trudeau better get a 100,000 man army together to chase all these guys.

#226 Dissident on 09.06.17 at 2:36 pm

I got 99 problems but a hurricane ain’t one.

#227 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.06.17 at 2:43 pm

Even if true, you’d then have to live in Vancouver. A city with no economy beyond lululemon, no cuisine beyond sushi, no nightlife beyond weed in Stanley Park. Basically, dead-but-alive.

I think most people with $2 million to burn on housing would prefer a place that’s interesting, with interesting people and cultural pursuits. Vancouver is left with the few tacky nouveau-riche boring enough to enjoy the place.
————
So true.
Made the mistake to attend the Taiwan Cultural Festival in Downtown last weekend.
A wake has a livelier atmosphere.
No entertainment, what-so-ever.
That was in the afternoon, tough.
Maybe it got better in the evening, when all the panhandlers come out to party.
The Art Gallery is charging 24 bucks (20 for kids) to view some unknown Monets.
This place is a cultural wasteland.

#228 Reality 1 on 09.06.17 at 2:44 pm

to # 206 bdwy sktrn

Maybe BillyBob – after visiting 140 countries – and thereby gaining some PERSPECTIVE on the relative attractiveness of other destinations – doesn’t share your PAROCHIAL opinion of your beloved BC / Vancouver.

How many countries have you visited or resided in ?
My guess he is a little more circumspect and better informed than yourself.

At least he gives us a disclaimer for any potential bias in his opinion by giving us his “back story”.
What is the basis for your smugness / delusion ?

You intimate that he cannot afford to buy a piece of your ‘little heaven’.

Did it ever occur to you that it is exactly the zeitgeist of the place that engenders such insufferable smugness in it’s inhabitants such as yourself that he doesn’t find appealing?

My guess is that you are just not that introspective nor curious about alternative destinations.

Billybob seems to be doing quite all right IMHO without being among the “chosen” of BC residents.

#229 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 2:44 pm

#222 Howard

Why I decided to retire in Italia instead of staying in YVR.

Still, if you hate the cold and snow, YVR the only climate in Canada that gives you relief.

And yes, I know, Winter there is like being a fern indoors constantly misted but there at least you need only 1 seasonal wardrobe change:

Summer: summer jacket.
Winter: summer jacket + umbrella, well, except for their past Winter, which was anomalous going back to the early 90s.

Impossibly expensive RE and rent wise there. The price you pay for Winter relief and natural beauty that you see every day, well, unless you live way out in the burbs.

My Vancouver World ended at Kingsway, what was beyond there I do not know…could not resist the dig.

#230 Chaddywack on 09.06.17 at 2:50 pm

Wow. Shocked at the rate rise. Not that it wasn’t forecast, but I didn’t think they would raise rates on an interest rate announcement day with no media briefing scheduled…

#231 JohnSaccy123 on 09.06.17 at 2:54 pm

Look at Ottawa RE (oreb.ca) calculations …Oversight or I just fckin care anymore??? what is the probability that sale price remains same in 2 months.

Ottawa RE for August – reported in Sept 2017
The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in August in the Ottawa area was $420,335, an increase of 7.6 per cent over August 2016.

Ottawa RE for July – reported in August 2017
The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in July in the Ottawa area was $420,335, an increase of 5.3 per cent over July 2016.

#232 Entrepreneur on 09.06.17 at 3:24 pm

ICBC has gone up in BC because of the mismanagement of the Liberal party.

Up to about $57. per vehicle.

Bwts, noticed a few people on disability pensions from an ICBC accident settlement bought houses. Low end of the market but in the market but are also into the drug scene.

#233 Not in Florida now thank God! on 09.06.17 at 3:30 pm

#220 Gravy Train on 09.06.17 at 2:16 pm

#112 Smoking Man on 09.05.17 at 11:50 pm
#104 waiting on the westcoast on 09.05.17 at 10:59 pm
#94 Mark on 09.05.17 at 10:10 pm

“Please share your drug of choice. I want some.”

When even SM is making fun of you, you know you’ve hit rock bottom!
…………………………………………………………………..
Nope Rock bottom is when we read the news and it talks about some dumb-ass Canadian, his wife and two dogs that got clobbered by a Hurricane that everyone else saw coming. Yes sort of like climate deniers and Trump supporters, all blind ;)

#234 CJBob on 09.06.17 at 3:45 pm

#201 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 1:05 pm
hindsight your strong suits.
_______________
I’d didn’t mean to pile on, but my point was we all shouldn’t be 100% sure of anything except death and taxes.

I didn’t know whether rates would go up or not and I’m fine admitting lots of things about the future that I don’t know because they are unknowable.

#235 Darryl on 09.06.17 at 3:46 pm

#183 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 12:26 pm
#167 Darryl
Tell me about it.
What happens when you believe Don Pittis at CBC about no press briefing = no rate hike, based on historical precedence
————————————————————-
LOL
Never watch the CBC news . Maybe Rosie . At least she seems to listen to two sides of a story .

#236 Mark on 09.06.17 at 3:48 pm

““Please share your drug of choice. I want some.””

I don’t take drugs. But with some of the comments I see here today, particularly in defense of tax cheating small businesses and professionals who are butt-hurt that they might lose “income sprinkling” as an option, I really gotta wonder.

I think I explained the other day, in quite thorough detail, why allowing abuses of pricing in related party transactions was quite contrary to the spirit and actual letter of tax law. And how this damages small businesses who play by the rules. Not a single tax-abiding legitimate small business will suffer due to the proposed changes, and the law abiders will actually thrive as their cheating competitors are subjected to fairer rates of tax.

#237 Manitoba Whale on 09.06.17 at 3:53 pm

#197 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.17 at 1:01 pm
…supply remains drier than dubai’s weed supply.
*****

I guess this is why I keep coming back to the comments section :)

#238 maxx on 09.06.17 at 3:53 pm

#52 MF on 09.05.17 at 8:40 pm

Yes indeed….the longer they wait to administer the required medicine, the worse the economy becomes.

Tptb created this horrid, miserable mess, like money-addled master of the universe wannabees, then diddled with N/ZIRP and “watched the situation closely”. That way, maybe, possibly, potentially things might correct on their own.

Cue Woody woodpecker.

#239 Darryl on 09.06.17 at 4:09 pm

As for you and your buddy Darryl, 20/20 hindsight your strong suits.——-
————————————————————-
No 20 20 from me dude . even though I was sure they would raise I would not have posted it . If I did it would be followed by IMHO.
Just sayin if you’re going to put out a statement that says 0% chance or 100% chance then you better be right .

Or you better be Mark :)

#240 AGuyInVancouver on 09.06.17 at 4:13 pm

#61 Perspective
The problem is Vancouver SFH prices aren’t dropping despite the huge drop in sales. This is conflict with everythign we’ve been taught about how markets operate. I’d love for some economists to take a close look and see what is going on. As I’ve said before, my hunch is way more SFH are held by offshore money than suspected and they’re under no pressure to sell. Hold and rent is a great strategy if you’re worried Xi Jinping is going to come after you and your fortune at any time.

#241 Tazi Bnu on 09.06.17 at 4:16 pm

#186 aa6 on 09.06.17 at 12:31 pm
In Canada what doctors make is a political question. The same as in almost all areas of our economy which are so heavily regulated and licensed that market forces only play a minor role in prices.

In BC our government believes GP doctors should make about the same as teachers & nurses, when factoring in the total compensation. Per hour worked the teachers & nurses likely come out ahead.

Now is this right.. personally I believe a GP doctor should make more than a nurse. But my opinion like everyone else’s is completely irrelevant. As in BC the government controls health care and the minister of health determines reimbursements for doctors, and the minister determines what nurses will make through negotiations with their union.

In our socialist society prices and the allocation of resources are determined primarily by the government.
____________________________________________
I know someone that was an emergency doctor and she became a teacher. While doing some clinic work in the summer she was able to make more than she would have if she ran her own practice. She also was able to get good maternity benefits. So I think a it would be a good idea for female doctors to consider retraining into teachers. It’ll be easy for them too, because they know math and science. Maybe Ontario kids will be able to pass grade 6 math then.

I did some back of the napkin calculations, teachers and doctors in Ontario roughly make the same per hour. GPs might net $90/hr before the tax changes, and elementary teachers make an average, over their working life, $80 – 90/hr inclusive of benefits, depending on their abuse of sick days and the healthcare benefits. However, a proper study should be able to shine a better light on this pay issue.

#242 Giver - AB on 09.06.17 at 4:19 pm

#124 Nonplused on 09.06.17 at 2:20 am
So I just ran some numbers on our (me and wifey’s) before and after care service, which we don’t need all the time but have to book out because when I work I am state side. I figure she (care provider) makes about $45,000 a year, based on her rates and the number of kids she is allowed to have based on regulations, she has demand for more.

Her tax rate is going up due to Turdeau and Moroneau and their clever policies. Does anybody think that someone who makes $45,000 a year can absorb a large tax increase without raising their rates? Tax increases always result in higher prices. Higher prices that I am going to have to pay, and so are you if you have children in day care or before and after care.

——–
Nonplussed – Can you explain how your day care provider’s costs are going to increase based on the small business tax changes?

Is she income sprinkling with family members? Not likely as her marginal tax rate is 15% at a $45,000 salary in ON.

Is she generating large amounts of passive income from the profit she has been keeping inside her corporation? Maybe, but not likely.

Is she going through the convolution of turning her income into capital gains instead? No.

Take a breath. These proposed changes are going to have exactly zero impact on your caregiver’s small business.

#243 Dups on 09.06.17 at 4:22 pm

This is how the Canadian economy is booming:

Taxes going up.
Oil goes up due to hurricanes in US.
NAFTA in a messy discussion.
North Korea lowering the US raising Canada as a safe haven

Meanwhile the real indicator of the economy the TSX has not moved up for a year. It is actually no different than it was years ago. What the “F” is BOC smoking? Money in Money out to get a certain manipulated number. Are they serious? Why all these games to show us off to the world as a leading economy? B.S. we barely make anything.

#244 BillyBob on 09.06.17 at 4:58 pm

#206 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.17 at 1:16 pm
171 and the other ,

billybob is a smug airline pilot.
with the job it’s somewhat justified imo.

he is a bit bitter he can’t swoop in to yvr and scoop a sweet west side house with his bags of cash.

but.. he’s right about there being many $opportunitie$ outside of canada for the able and willing.

===================================

What makes you think I can’t afford a house in Vancouver? Bitter? lol You’re such a Vancouver stereotype, assuming I’d even want to live there. When I return to visit family on the West Coast I can’t get out of YVR fast enough. It’s just such a soulless place now.

Sorry if my post sounded “smug”. Hardly. The hardships faced in the transition away from my former home were too great to claim any smugness – I am just grateful for how it has worked out. And the circumstances that landed me overseas were more due to desperation (i.e., needed a job!) than by design. But man, it has been a wild ride. I can’t even imagine what I would have missed if I hadn’t been “forced” to leave. Professionally I would still be toiling away through the unionized ranks of the national airlines, financially, well, no contest. I was fortunate to be in the right place during major expansion so was granted a command in a few short years, which normally takes decades in Canada. Personally I would never have had the chance to see the world the way I have or meet the insane variety of people I have, from every corner of the earth. (Dubai makes Canada seem culturally homogeneous by comparison). I even got to meet the girl of my dreams. Hint: she’s not Canadian.

Of course my plan had always been to eventually return, but now? Why would anyone who didn’t have to, contribute to the regime as it is now, and the obviously confiscatory direction it’s going? About the only way to make it in a way I would deem financially acceptable now would be to grab some cushy government job, and that would crush my soul. I don’t plan to ever return as a resident. The weather is only decent a few months a year anyway.

Vancouver in particular I find to be one of the most curiously overrated cities in the world. There is more culture, history, and beauty in a single square block of any middling European city than in all of the GVRD.

Others’ mileage may vary, I don’t claim my story could be automatically repeated. In fact it can’t, as things have changed in the intervening years. But as some opportunities close down, others open up. There is a whole world out there outside of Canada. You’d think an immigrant nation would be more aware of that fact. Screw Trudeau and Morneau, take your skills and money somewhere they’re valued, not attacked.

#245 conan on 09.06.17 at 5:02 pm

Cat 6 Hurricane ………not good.
Trump will handle it………not good.

#246 TheDood on 09.06.17 at 5:03 pm

#171 BillyBob on 09.06.17 at 11:41 am
________________________________

#307 MF on 09.05.17 at 4:42 pm
IH,

Dubai? A better climate? Lol

Aside from being in the desert, Dubai is pretty much one of the last places on earth I would move to if I were wealthy.
________________________________

As someone who’s lived in that area of the world, allow me to also weigh in……

For those who’ve never worked overseas in a tax-free environment, let’s paint a little picture here, see if you can follow along.

– Imagine a USD paycheque with ZERO deductions
– Imagine working for an employer who pays for housing AND dependant children’s private schooling
– Imagine all Medical and Dental coverage for 100% (the medical/dental is just as good if not better)
– Imagine 5 or 6 weeks of paid vacation and being able to afford 5 star holidays for all of it no matter where you decide to go
– Imagine being able to afford business class for the whole family whenever you get on the plane for those 5 star holidays
– Imagine being able to save/invest 75% of your take home pay AND still live like a king while you frivolously spend the remaining 25%
– Imagine living in a place where you attend pool parties and backyard barbecues all year round

For those with an education, an open mind and some skill sets, its a big world out there! Get out and enjoy it. Dubai is a fantastic destination.

#247 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.17 at 5:05 pm

#227 Reality 1 on 09.06.17 at 2:44 pm
———
touchy much?

you missed 90% of the meaning, flew off the handle and made several wildly incorrect assumptions.

iirc bb said he would buy here if it was not stupid prices. why not? he’s been around also and knows how world cities rank up.
for real winter take a tropical 4month break, van is still far too cold/wet

#248 Paracho on 09.06.17 at 5:26 pm

@ #245 …… TheDood

I visited Dubai 4times. Once wasfor a 3 month contract …. all tax free !
It is a great place and much more relaxed than Toronto .
I agree to everything you said and would like to go back and possibly stay there !
I had to come back due to my elderly parents .

#249 Gravy Train on 09.06.17 at 5:34 pm

#244 conan on 09.06.17 at 5:02 pm

“Cat 6 Hurricane ………not good.
Trump will handle it………not good.”

The victims and survivors of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are learning all about type I and type II errors!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_I_and_type_II_errors

(Type I errors are just annoying or embarrassing, but type II errors can get yourself killed!) :(

#250 Reximus on 09.06.17 at 5:37 pm

Imagine. The dollar nearing 82 cents. Toronto detached house prices now negative year/year.

—–

Toronto prices are not down y.o.y, maybe York has some areas, but that’s not Toronto

Toronto detached -1.2% year/year. — Garth

#251 you lost me with.... on 09.06.17 at 5:40 pm

– Imagine all Medical and Dental coverage for 100% (the medical/dental is just as good if not better)

…..

there, the parentheses. Trying too hard

#252 up up up she goes, not RE though on 09.06.17 at 5:41 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/rate-hike-impact-1.4276931

last time it took couple hrs, today a bit longer lol

#253 bdwy sktrn on 09.06.17 at 5:47 pm

b.bob – good story on your personal(flight?)path

someone else called you smug first! i was justifying your smugness because i envy your job.
it was a tongue in cheek thing.

re yvr -i kind of meant you could //easily// buy up a west side house…

and for any other out-of-towners looking for a seasonal getaway…
1m can buy a stunning, huge, newer, super high end house on 5ac just outside white rock in usa. 50min to downtown. NW washington econ is very strong and growing fast.

#254 Victor V on 09.06.17 at 5:52 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-rate-hike-triggers-boost-to-consumer-lending-rates

After the central bank’s move, Royal Bank said that it will increase its prime lending rate to 3.2 per cent from 2.95 per cent, effective Thursday. Bank of Montreal, TD Canada Trust, Bank of Nova Scotia and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce will also raise their prime lending rates to 3.2 per cent.

#255 MF on 09.06.17 at 6:16 pm

#245 TheDood on 09.06.17 at 5:03 pm

Imagine all the migrant workers toiling away in squalor for less than livable wages trying to provide for their families while the rich oil sheikhs laugh about paying 0% on income tax while they drive their ugly ferarri.

That place is a mirage and ripe for social upheaval and violence.

MF

#256 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 6:29 pm

#234 Darryl

I go to CBC just to read what the latest SJW Lefty crisis is all about and their Business page as what the heck – some of their stuff is just so dumb, I like to read it for amusement.

Used to like Amanda Lang and Kevin O’Leary’s show. When that stopped, I stopped watching CBC like you, different reason though.

Sent Pittis a Tweet reminding him of the error of his ways…whom I believed, still, that one’s on me…never, ever again believe even sage MSM.

#257 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 6:37 pm

#238 Darryl

No, please, not Mark. I would rather commit Seppuku.

I’m not a IMHO kind of guy. I call them as I see them. When I mess up, I own it. When I get it right, I keep quiet about it.

And when people remind me of the fact I messed up w/o their having said anything beforehand, I call them 20/20 hindsight people.

If I had said that to someone else, I’d own up to it.

#258 espressobob on 09.06.17 at 6:44 pm

Loaded up on rate reset prefs for some time wondering why the herd ignores this asset class?

It’s a bitch being complacent.

#259 Alex Greene on 09.06.17 at 6:52 pm

EU is looking to raise rates as well:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/06/eurozone-european-interest-rates-deutsche-bank-john-cryan-ecb-meeting

The cheap debt party is over, ladies and gents!

#260 Keith in Calgary on 09.06.17 at 6:53 pm

Heh……..the only way you’d get me to visit the middle east is from the left seat of a B-52.

#261 Dolce Vita on 09.06.17 at 6:55 pm

#239 AGuyInVancouver

I agree prices have not budged and yup, defies logic where supply the same but demand has gone way down. In theory prices should drop if there is any competition.

Avg. price down a lot but that’s just because the bulk of unit sales are lower priced condos instead of high priced detached.

I think a few more rate increases may cause some recent owners to sell and get out of unsustainable monthly expenses and OSFI B-20 will lower the number of buyers, so that should start to drop prices – then again that won’t be until 2018 until we find out.

It may take a job loss recession to have prices drop substantially in Vancouver by the looks of it so far, but who knows? Look at Toronto RE as of late, not many saw that coming – well, Garth did.

Take heart though, a Vancouver bankruptcy trustee that posts regularly on Twitter says he is seeing a lot more “extend and pretend” consumer proposals as of late…

#262 Ace Goodheart on 09.06.17 at 6:59 pm

Wish you lot who are like “tax the rich!” could see what you are doing. It doesn’t benefit you to have doctors or small business people taxed more. The money doesn’t come to you. There is no conceivable benefit to you promoting this.

You are hurting yourselves. Here’s why: when you encourage a government to tax it’s citizens for no reason other than because the citizens are earning money, the government will gladly do this. They’ll play you off against each other. You want your neighbour to be taxed more, she turns around and says “increase his payroll taxes he doesn’t pay enough”.

It’s a circle. It’s how we got into this mess in the first place, each of us trying to screw the other one over and the government acting as executioner.

Once they have a revenue stream they figure out ways to spend it. That means more annoying laws enforced by more stone faced civil servants and your life he Comes more annoying and difficult as your government continues its very well funded war on your civil liberties.

Why do you want to give them more money? Do you want more state brainwashing? More stupid government advertising? More people with badges and name cards bossing you around for your own good? More public morality and decency squads?

Why are you lot encouraging them?

Please everyone let’s band together and say enough is enough. They already take more than half our incomes. Our health care sucks with long wait times and try to get a doctor to call you back. There is no benefit in giving the govt more money.

Enough is enough.

#263 Dissident on 09.06.17 at 7:35 pm

#245 TheDood on 09.06.17 at 5:03 pm

Ya, I know a person who lives there now with her husband and 2 kids. She’s a teacher and he works, I am guessing, in some engineering capacity, in Dubai. From the pics, all I can see is that she hangs with a bunch of other white (mostly blonde) ex-pats, lots of Brits it seems. It looks like white gated community or something. Not too shabby!

#264 Where's The Money Guido? on 09.06.17 at 8:07 pm

Re: #99 akashic records on 09.05.17 at 10:45 pm
How about this explanation for “global warming”?
USCG ice cores

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxERTlbAo7g&list=PL3ducBA0aeVEraiotz7u6uGsEgM1JmrAV

I knew global warming is a scam, we’re gonna get colder (in time), and it’s all there in the show….
The elite/gov’t can no longer scam us and tax us with this lie!
Tell everyone!!!!!!
M60BC

#265 Where's The Money Guido? on 09.06.17 at 8:10 pm

Re: #67 Kool Aid on 09.05.17 at 9:07 pm
81-82 all over again, effectively interest rates will double in short order, RE value decline to continue, we’ll see the proof in power of sales by early 2018.

…”Now if a NK strike becomes a reality, paper will burn brightest, careful, in times of consequence liquitiy is a risk.”…

Can you explain this layman’s terms. Will cash be king, but in turn more ppl wanting it via violence. Or better to go into hard assets.

Thanks….

#266 Gravy Train on 09.06.17 at 8:28 pm

#261 Ace Goodheart on 09.06.17 at 6:59 pm

“… More people with badges and name cards bossing you around for your own good? More public morality and decency squads?”

When you wrote the above lines, Ace, I instantly thought of these lines from John Huston’s 1948 film The Treasure of the Sierra Madre: “Badges? We ain’t got no badges. We don’t need no badges. I don’t have to show you any stinkin’ badges!” :)

At least I amuse myself—if no one else! :)

#267 Where's The Money Guido? on 09.06.17 at 8:35 pm

#105 Fake News Again on 09.05.17 at 11:02 pm

Wild Bill huh? Well “Bill” went to “Bill”derberg this past summer. And now “small biz” is getting squeezed to the delight of the mega corporations.

….”As usual……the media, the public, the blogs…..do not pick up on this.”…

So true, also the right turn in interest rates, and we know who controls the media. In BC former Premier Gordon Campbell went to Bilberberg just after screwing all BC’ers with IPPs and selling BC Rail, and now look where he is-Bilderberg central-London. And who was with him-former CBC host Peter Mansbridge……https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8HMVajxtwM

M64WI

#268 BC_Doc on 09.06.17 at 9:39 pm

83 Scully on 09.05.17 at 9:43 pm
#38 BC Doc
Many of us truly appreciate what you do. I also want to put out there to please email your Liberal MP and tell him/her that you are pissed at this tax. It may seem like an exercise in futility but I think T2 and Mor-know-nothing are feeling the heat – and not from the forest fires. It’s not a done deal yet. Just a feeling. Maybe I’m channelling nectonites. (I hear there’s a cure for that…)
*********************************************

Thanks for the sentiment @Scully!

I’m in the BC Interior so my MP is a Conservative– still, I’ve met him a couple of times through hospital work so I plan on making him aware of the impact on medical resources in our community where we’re already short physicians.

It’s been interesting reading Kelowna Liberal MP Fuhr’s comments in the press. He’s speaking out against T2 and Morneau’s proposal– his electorate is clearly messaging him that he’ll be a one-term wonder if Trudeau’s tax policy is implemented.

Cheers,
BC Doc

#269 BC_Doc on 09.06.17 at 9:43 pm

One last thing.
A tip of the hat to Boom!
Smartest thing I ever did myself was meet and marry a Cheesehead.

M64WI

BC_Doc
M50BC

#270 Where's The Money Guido? on 09.06.17 at 11:20 pm

Sorry, meant to put my
M60BC in there b4
M64WI

#271 Shawn on 09.07.17 at 12:00 pm

The “taketh” part is $CAD strength taking any international sector gains away from Canadian investors. Combine a strong $CAD and a negative TSX and most Canadian investors will be negative for 2017.

#272 aa6 on 09.07.17 at 12:49 pm

#240 Tazi Bnu

I know someone that was an emergency doctor and she became a teacher. While doing some clinic work in the summer she was able to make more than she would have if she ran her own practice. She also was able to get good maternity benefits. So I think a it would be a good idea for female doctors to consider retraining into teachers. It’ll be easy for them too, because they know math and science. Maybe Ontario kids will be able to pass grade 6 math then.

I did some back of the napkin calculations, teachers and doctors in Ontario roughly make the same per hour. GPs might net $90/hr before the tax changes, and elementary teachers make an average, over their working life, $80 – 90/hr inclusive of benefits, depending on their abuse of sick days and the healthcare benefits. However, a proper study should be able to shine a better light on this pay issue.
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Women are the pragmatic gender. For the woman who became a teacher, after being a doctor, I think it is a great move.

Like imagine she became disabled in her 50’s, which is a very real possibility. As a teacher she is covered by a comprehensive plan, so her and her family will have some security.

As a doctor she can attempt to sue the private insurance company to try to get money out of them.