Under water in TO

The real estate board won’t tell you, but this blog will. The nation’s biggest, most influential real estate market continues its descent. Internal, super-secret, if-I-tell-you-I-must-kill-you realtor statistics for the first ten days of August aren’t pretty. Unless, of course, you’re rooting for a price collapse. Which just happened.

The average detached GTA digs has fallen through the $900,000 mark, erasing a full year of appreciation. At $895,000 it’s $65,000 lower than just a month ago – which must come as bitter news to the 5,921 people who closed on properties during July.

In fact the average price is 29.8% less than it was in April – only 120 days ago. This is the most rapid price deterioration since market numbers first started to be compiled. It makes the last crash of the early 1990s pale in comparison (that one took three years to play out, then 14 to recover). In terms of market deceleration, it beats the pants off the 2005-7 US housing crash (that one bottomed out with a 32% price dump), and there’s probably more to come.

For the record. A TO detached that cost $1.275 million in April is currently $380,000 cheaper. It means anyone who bought with the standard 20% down is underwater – owing more in mortgage principal than the house is worth. How many people warned you this might occur? That’s right. None. Zippo. Except maybe one bleating, pathetic blog, crying wolf in the night.

When it comes to the real estate establishment, well, this was the message from last Spring:

“Home ownership continues to be a great investment and remains very important to the majority of GTA households. As we move through 2017, we expect the demand for ownership housing to remain strong, including demand from first-time buyers who, according to a recent Ipsos survey, could account for more than half of transactions this year. However, many of these would-be buyers will have problems finding a home that meets their needs in a market with very little inventory,” said (Toronto Real Estate Board president) Cerqua.

“The number of active listings on TREB’s MLS® System at the end of January was essentially half of what was reported as available at the same time last year.  That statistic, on its own, tells us that there is a serious supply problem in the GTA – a problem that will continue to play itself out in 2017.  The result will be very strong price growth for all home types again this year,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

There you go. The voices of responsibility. “A great investment… strong demand… strong price growth for all home types again this year.” Can you imagine such categorical statements being made about stocks? Shackles and a perp walk would be involved.

Well, that didn’t work out so well for anyone who bought since July of last year in Toronto. Meanwhile in Mississauga detached prices fell $82,000 last month, to $878,000. The decline from peak house in April is 20.9%. That house is now $232,000 less. In Markham the average plunged an astonishing 10.1% last month alone ($140,000), erasing a blip higher in July and taking prices back to March of last year. Since the spring, $331,000 in equity has left town. In Brampton prices are 17.1% less, and just fell $37,000. What cost more than $850,000 in March is barely more than $700,000 now.

Some areas seem to have stabilized (Richmond Hill, Vaughan, Newmarket) after suffering big price dives. But it’s August. Sales volumes are low. And this is only ten days’ worth of data. More revealing numbers will come in the weeks ahead, as we inch closer to the new mortgage stress test everyone must pass, plus the October Bank of Canada rate increase.

Well, to Victoria now, where people are so cute. They think it’s different there.

Eight months ago a doc blog dog wrote us for advice on selling his house or staying put. You savaged him. But he’s back with an update:

“Remember me, the ER doc in Victoria who wrote you last December about whether we should sell our house for $1.4 to 1.5 million, pay off our 500K and rent for $3K / month?  Your opinionators  totally skewered me in the comments section for wasting my life until that point with only $1 million in savings.  Little do did they know that front line health care workers like don’t make $500K a year (more like $250K) and we have to pay overhead out of that.  The last kicker is that I didn’t start start earning income until I was 30 and proceeded to get the worst financial advise for the next 10 years .

“We waited until April to list our house.  But by then there was an invisible softening to the market in Victoria.  Home listings when up and sales started to drop.   After 60 days on the market there were no bidding wars and showings fell off to one a week with no seconds.  It was obvious that where weren’t going to get the $1.5 that we listed for and our realtor was confident it would fetch.  The realtor was perplexed and dumb founded.  We dropped that price to gain an edge in the market and sold for $1.3.  Phew – because sales have ground to a halt in our price range!!

“So we didn’t get the $1.5 that the realtor almost guaranteed us but other things worked out in our favour.  The owner of the property we are renting dropped the monthly rent to $2K / month so he could keep a us, a good long-term renter, in the house.  Given the recent changes coming to the small business corporations, rising interest rates and softening real estate,  I think we have made the smart move to short the market.

“I think I still have 10 to 15 years of good work left in me and have close to $2 million in liquid investments, no kids in the house but still on the payroll for education, which we have saved for BTW.  Given how my investments have performed I am hoping never to return to the Canadian real estate market unless there is a major correction or I have a huge shin dig at the new rental and get the boot (you will be invited to that). I feel bad for my children who will likely never own property in a major Canadian centre even if they go to medical school.  Sad statement!!!

The moral: residential real estate is fun, socially sexy, can help you get girls and is oft mistaken as the goal of life. Even by doctors. But what really matters is the fulsome enjoyment of the limited time we all have, and a good way to make that happen is to be rich. Or at least financially secure. And that means having cash flow, not stuff. Doc did the right thing. Sold near the top. Rents cheap. Money for life. Comes here. How is that not perfect?

Finally, the news I shared with you yesterday about the morons among us generated a surprising and unexpected response. Not only did a gush of sucking-up comments appear here, but I was contacted by Internet security experts, lawyers specializing in cyber crime and even some duct-cleaning guys. It was touching. I’m good. Thanks to you.

168 comments ↓

#1 Chaddywack on 08.11.17 at 6:05 pm

Is Vancouver still hot? No significant price drops noted in the media. I think flop needs to get a gig as a guest star on Global.

Most of the doctors I know that work in Vancouver commute an hour from the valley because that’s the only place they can afford a detached home. Sad.

If doctors aren’t buying these expensive houses in Vancouver, who is?

#2 Mike on 08.11.17 at 6:06 pm

.
Rumor is that OSFI might NOT implement its proposed changes to Mortgage regulations due to immense pressure from Mortgage guys and Realtors. They are sending letters to consultation email address a lot seems like.

Consultation period is open till August 17th.

I suggest instead of writing comments here today, send a Consultation email to:
[email protected]

Subject: Implement proposed changes to B-20 ASAP

Content: ()

—–

Can’t email during consultation period, can’t complain.

#3 nick on 08.11.17 at 6:06 pm

Good to see the trend continuing. Will be interesting to see how things shake out with more volume/data.

#4 waiting on the westcoast on 08.11.17 at 6:10 pm

Garth says… “How many people warned you this might occur? That’s right. None. Zippo. Except maybe one bleating, pathetic blog, crying wolf in the night.”

Well – its been a long wait bleating on the westcoast but finally I will get to be correct. ;-)

Again – it is going to be some bad days ahead for people that have continued to leverage themselves with granite/stainless debt. I hope they don’t get burned too badly.

#5 the ryguy on 08.11.17 at 6:13 pm

Question for fellow Garth readers.. what price are you willing to pay for a house? Im just curious what people think. For reference, Im about 150/k year, and its inconceivable to me to pay $895k for a house. Granted, Im an Albertan, so maybe TO is absolutely incredible and life changing..but I cant for the life of me imagine paying that.

For the absolute perfect “I will never leave this place” I could imagine maybe doing 700k, but even that seems high. Just curious what you guys think?

Garth, I don’t suck up to anyone, but I genuinely enjoy your work and respect you, thats as high praise as I can give.

#6 Penny Henny on 08.11.17 at 6:14 pm

Internal, super-secret, if-I-tell-you-I-must-kill-you-GT

New killing theme?

#7 From YVR on 08.11.17 at 6:16 pm

Garth,

Thank-you for the update, it is always a great read. I look forward to reading your blog almost every day. It looks like too much focus is on the GTA market as the market is going south pretty quickly, however there are few humble blog dogs who live in BC and care about the YVR real estate market as well. When time permits or perhaps in one of your next few blogs please talk little bit about the great YVR Real Estate.

Once again thank-you for all the insight. All the best.

#8 Fran Deck Jr. on 08.11.17 at 6:17 pm

I would pay to read this blog everyday.
Thank you Garth.

#9 OttawaMike on 08.11.17 at 6:20 pm

So Dog exists?

#10 Guy in Calgary on 08.11.17 at 6:20 pm

You have fought the good fight for long enough including yourwith humour and time in office. Glad to see you’re still going to give us your commentary on the Canadian real-estate markets, kept interesting sarcasm.

What a lot of the morons don’t realize (feel free to correct me if I am wrong) is that this blog is not monetized. Given the amount of time that seemingly goes into it, that is something that is appreciated by us all. Also you once said you donated the pogey you receive from your time with the Feds. Although it’s tax efficient ;) it is a nice touch.

I feel like I have a front row seat to GTArmageddon by reading here. Thanks for the years of free content Garth. I’ll keep reading so long as the posts keep coming.

#11 Wrk.dover on 08.11.17 at 6:22 pm

So Garth, not only do you have a fan base, but you are also a saviour. Glad to know of you. Role model. yada yada. I’ll drink a toast to you in your absence tonight.

#12 Vancouverite on 08.11.17 at 6:22 pm

I don’t think you should be gloating over any of your predictions Garth. Previously you said there would be no crash, only a slow melt. You have said Vancouver is in a bubble,but prices have gone through the roof. Yesterday you wrote that people should wait, are you willing to stand behind that Garth?

#13 Nelson, The Simpsons Episode on 08.11.17 at 6:24 pm

Nelson’s response to the Toronto housing crash (pointed finger at all the Toronto yuppies and SJW hipsters stressed out on negative equity):
https://media.tenor.com/images/aee72fd7530ce5deae7209ffe6df76c0/tenor.gif

HAPPY HOUSING CRASH EVERYONE!!!!!

#14 AJ on 08.11.17 at 6:24 pm

Garth- thank you for all you do! It was so wonderful to see all the comments yesterday. You make or lives better – very noble and awesome of you. So glad to hear you got help.

#15 Average Joe on 08.11.17 at 6:27 pm

If committing to contribute more frequently in an informative and entertaining style (rather than plain old nasty) is sucking up, here goes…

Received an email from a real estate sales representative yesterday that went like this…

“Real Estate Fire Sale. Brand New Pre-construction Home priced $200K Under Current Market Value.

Beautiful Caledon New Construction Home, nearly 3,400 square feet available at a HUGE discount.

The builder is currently selling this model for ONE MILLION ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY THOUSAND ($1,150,000). 

The seller purchased this home from the builder and due to life circumstances finds himself in a position where he cannot close. The home closes at the end of the month and he needs help.

This is one of those moments where you have to ask yourself if you want to take an opportunity put in front of you. It does require quick action and decision making.

Due to the circumstances the seller just wants to get his deposit back and is willing to sell it for pretty much what he paid for it OVER A YEAR AGO!!

Again, this is one of those opportunities that are very rare and can change your life path in an instant. 

Purchasing a home on the market right now at this price would be about 1,000 square feet smaller.”

When I clicked on the embedded YouTube video (for entertainment purposes only) which even included a reference to Warren Buffett investment philosophy, what I found even more hilarious was another YouTube video from the same sales rep, from October 25th, 2016. This one was titled, wait for it…

“Why GTA House Prices Won’t Go Down”

Of course, the central theme was…

*** IT’S DIFFERENT HERE! ***

#16 paracho on 08.11.17 at 6:27 pm

This foctor God the right thing . Especially if he bought over 10 years ago .
I sold just under 2 years ago and am happy with what I received even though some nag me for not selling closer to the top .
Great income coming in from my dividends .

#17 T on 08.11.17 at 6:30 pm

You got this Garth!

#18 Guy in Calgary on 08.11.17 at 6:32 pm

#5 the ryguy on 08.11.17 at 6:13 pm”

The perfect house should also have the perfect price, they are not exclusive. I am also an Albertan, the combined income between my wife and I is higher then your but not by much. We bought our “forever” home in Calgary that has everything we could ever need and honestly, probably more space then we will ever need for 200k cheaper then where you are looking. We also did well selling a property in the Niagara Region before moving out and had a large amount of savings we never put into real estate.

At the end of the day it is a personal choice. How much debt you can afford and are comfortable with and whether you have solid fall back and your job is secure. I think paying 700k on a place is stupid but that’s my opinion.

#19 the ryguy on 08.11.17 at 6:33 pm

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/non-buyer-s-remorse-toronto-sellers-frustrated-as-home-buyers-tack-on-demands-1.3541706

Lol, this one lawyer said he has had 6 of these “in the past 3 months”..Oh boy, happy housing crash everyone!

#20 Mike on 08.11.17 at 6:34 pm

Have you emailed yet? Deadline is August 17th.

[email protected]

Garth, can you put it on top of blog, just like you did for the consultation for small business tax changes. Thank you!!

#21 Daveyboy on 08.11.17 at 6:36 pm

I agree @#8 . Thanks Garth

#22 Algonquin Settler (formerly Cdn Mom) on 08.11.17 at 6:39 pm

Glad you received all the support Garth.

This really bothers me:

“I feel bad for my children who will likely never own property in a major Canadian centre even if they go to medical school. Sad statement!!!”

Why do so many feel that living or owning property in “a major Canadian centre” is important? This is part of the build-up in the RE bubbles. This country needs to de-centralize itself.

I’ve lived in the northern Ontario bush, a town on Superior’s north shore, downtown Toronto, Guelph, a town on Huron’s northern shore, in two cities in the Fraser Valley, the Vancouver burbs, and now on Superior’s eastern shore. Each has its pros and cons. The only one I really didn’t enjoy was the Van burbs. Even in 98 one needed loads of cash for housing there. We left for cheap northern Ontario.

There is life beyond major centres, and it is usually a much less expensive life, and much more relaxed life. For a little over $100, I can hop on a 45 minute flight, land downtown in The Big Smoke, and do whatever I please. It’s a 15 minute drive to the airport, low traffic, and I only have to be there 30 minutes prior to departure. And I can sleep in my own bed that night if I want, on the big lake, listening to waves and loons, in a lovely house well under $200,000.

C’mon Canadians, take off the blinders. Those that do, and move here, stay.

#23 Oil Guy on 08.11.17 at 6:44 pm

Garth – I know it’s not one of the major markets you talk about…but can you enlighten us on Edmonton. I’m a young 20-something year old guy and a lot of my friends purchased houses here (with money from the bank of mom and dad). I keep warning them to be weary…How would Edmonton’s market fair in comparison to Calgary and the rest of Canada?

#24 I'm sorry on 08.11.17 at 6:52 pm

I’m sorry but prices in Toronto aren’t collapsing. This is the only site that says so. And Vancouver prices are at record highs. They just had the fastest rate of house price increases in 50 years last month. Average 1 berm condo now $880,000!

#25 James MF on 08.11.17 at 6:56 pm

I’m glad to see all is well, Garth. If it weren’t for you and your blog I might not have preferred shares and REITs as part of the safe stuff in my portfolio. I’m glad you have made new cybercrime-fighting friends as I’m sure the quality of my breakfast reading would fall considerably if I didn’t have this blog to look forward to everyday.

#26 Gasbag Boomer on 08.11.17 at 6:57 pm

First? Love the blog, BTW.

#27 Lied about Canadian Millennial on 08.11.17 at 6:58 pm

For the record, I never once said anything racist or against Chinese people. I’ve repeatedly asked Garth to provide evidence of these claims but of course there is none. I’ve been reading this blog for years, got tired of all the millennial bashing by entitled and delusional boomers and decided to post a different perspective. One that may not necessarily be popular with the entitled boomer class but i always backed up with facts and articles. I was banned and lied about for it. I expected better from you Garth.

#28 WUL on 08.11.17 at 7:06 pm

It is rare for me to remain completely on topic here but tonight is the night. Garth speaks of real estate near the Great Lakes and Zippo.

At a garage sale a few weeks back I found a $4 old Zippo lighter engraved with:

Alpine Realty

Offices in U.P. & Detroit Area
1330 Delta Ave.
Gladstone, Mich.
(906) 428-2353

Appears a ’50s vintage. Got it home, threw in a new Ronson flint and some jet fuel and now I can light a smoke in a hurricane.

Feels good to be on topic.

#29 TO_going_down on 08.11.17 at 7:06 pm

Doctors are so out of touch with reality… I don’t make that much money!! I only bill $250k, keep the vast majority, pay some liability insurance ($30k), and it’s tax deductible. As a lawyer/MBA I make comparable money, also spent 8 years in post secondary + training, also didn’t start working until I was like 30, but I at least have the good sense to realize I make a lot more than the average joe.

Also, take some ownership of your financial errors buddy – blaming bad advice for financial underperformance is ridiculous.

#30 just a dude on 08.11.17 at 7:11 pm

Gotta say this:

Garth, you rock.
Love this blog.
Love the good dogs that post here.

#31 Blobby on 08.11.17 at 7:12 pm

Actually the media is picking up on it

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/non-buyer-s-remorse-toronto-sellers-frustrated-as-home-buyers-tack-on-demands-1.3541706

#32 TurnerNation on 08.11.17 at 7:12 pm

Leftist pap in Toronto. A flood lately of feel good “Bike lane” stories. In a city where it’s -10c for months on end. (Who’d bike then?)

Say are doctors also supporting a Downtown Relief Subway line (it’s been talked about for decades, no action for us). No way the elites will give us 1st World technology. No mandate in law for Tesla charging stations or solar arrays in new condo builds either.

No it’s all bikes and rickshaws. Fellow Komrades in this 2nd world country.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2017/08/11/why-doctors-support-bike-lanes-theyre-healthier-for-everyone.html

#33 vic market on 08.11.17 at 7:12 pm

Sorry, but there is no 2K houses for rent in Victoria for the likes of a doctor everything is through the roof for rent even in all the surrounding communities. and even fewer landlords that I prepared to take a price reduction in the hottest rental market around. Nice try. must be a two bedroom condo

#34 TurnerNation on 08.11.17 at 7:15 pm

Toronto is one large AirBnB cluster flock:

https://mobile.twitter.com/g_meslin/status/895257520255766528

#35 Bonhomme Carnaval on 08.11.17 at 7:16 pm

@ #5 the ryguy on 08.11.17 at 6:13 pm

In my humble opinion, 25-30% of your net income should be going to housing (mortgage, taxes, fees, insurance, utilities, maintenance & upkeep, etc.) or rent, utilities, and insurance.

@ #22 Algonquin Settler (formerly Cdn Mom) on 08.11.17 at 6:39 pm

Finally! Someone that understands. Thank you for your opinion mom.

#36 rental property math on 08.11.17 at 7:19 pm

In fact the average price is 29.8% less than it was in April – only 120 days ago. This is the most rapid price deterioration since market numbers first started to be compiled. It makes the last crash of the early 1990s pale in comparison (that one took three years to play out, then 14 to recover). In terms of market deceleration, it beats the pants off the 2005-7 US housing crash (that one bottomed out with a 32% price dump), and there’s probably more to come.

—————
Then why isn’t this front page headlines? Is it because it didn’t go over the hump of a negative year over year gain?

Still meaningless for anyone who’s purchased over a year ago.

For me who’s purchased 4.5 years ago, hoping I can average out 4% YoY gains…
prices can stay still for the next 9 years and I’ll hit my target.

#37 dakkie on 08.11.17 at 7:19 pm

THIS IS IT! The Great Canadian Real Estate Crash Has Begun as Sales Drop MASSIVE 40%!

http://investmentwatchblog.com/this-is-it-the-great-canadian-real-estate-crash-has-begun-as-sales-drop-massive-40/

#38 Save Glen Abbey on 08.11.17 at 7:21 pm

Keep the good housing news coming Garth! I almost became a greater fool earlier this year. Your blog helped steer me in the right direction–just about everything you said has come to pass. Can’t thank you enough.

#39 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.11.17 at 7:21 pm

Happy Housing Crash you dirty shysters. You Shysters hate truth and try to distort it at every level. That’s what makes you evil dirty lying shysters who don’t care how many lives you ruin with lies. You shysters are horrible scum and should suffer for your financial crimes and lies.

#40 paulo on 08.11.17 at 7:22 pm

Que: happy housing dude.

#41 Howling dog on 08.11.17 at 7:31 pm

I think you enjoy this Garth.
Feeding fresh raw meat to the howling blog dogs.

#42 Swm on 08.11.17 at 7:33 pm

Newmarket and Richmond Hill may have stabilized but Aurora which is between them crashed hard this month. -16percent in one month on zolo stats

#43 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.11.17 at 7:41 pm

@CDN MOM-

Don’t you understand? If you don’t live in The Centre of the Universe, with its bike lanes, mass transit, succulent lattes, and skinny jeans, you are an anti-environment four wheel drive lovin’ Neanderthal.

Hope that helped.

#44 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.11.17 at 7:42 pm

I forgot to add “fossil fuel guzzlin'”.

#45 Bob Dog on 08.11.17 at 7:44 pm

I for one am very concerned that we have no debtor prisons in Canada. In the end average Canadians will pay for bailing out the psychopath speculators.

Also, when will we begin to see see Realtors prosecuted for fraud. Their propaganda has definitely reached criminal levels.

#46 young & foolish on 08.11.17 at 7:50 pm

“I feel bad for my children who will likely never own property in a major Canadian centre even if they go to medical school. ”

Why would this be so? Prices are dropping and will continue until new buyers find it affordable and attractive to buy again, no?

#47 Smartalox on 08.11.17 at 7:54 pm

@Blogdogs:

I think that we can all agree the first rule of posting is “Do NOT break the Garth”!

Carry on.

#48 SoggyShorts on 08.11.17 at 7:56 pm

#5 the ryguy on 08.11.17 at 6:13 pm
Question for fellow Garth readers.. what price are you willing to pay for a house?
**********************************
Also an Albertan, but I don’t think I’ll ever buy. Maintenance and lack of mobility are too big a turn-off for me. If I had decided to have kids, then a “forever” home might suit my lifestyle, and I’d probably be willing to pay 4x income.
———————————-

#36 rental property math on 08.11.17 at 7:19 pm
Still meaningless for anyone who’s purchased over a year ago.
*********************************
2 months ago the drop was meaningless for anyone who bought 4 months ago
1 month ago the drop was meaningless for anyone who bought 8 months ago
now the drop is meaningless for anyone who bought 12 months ago

When the dust settles, then we will know how meaningful the correction was.
———————————
#39 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.11.17 at 7:21 pm
Happy Housing Crash you dirty shysters.
*********************************
I’d love to know how you feel about car salesmen =)

#49 Smartalox on 08.11.17 at 7:56 pm

Re: the super-secret stats:

Are these closed deals? Or handshake only, soon to be re-negged upon, accepted offers?

If the latter, prices may soon fall further still!

#50 Danny on 08.11.17 at 7:57 pm

Garth
Happy to hear that you are good….after that act of terrorism. This kind of hate talk is not acceptable and the law enforcement folks need to get a handle of hate statements of all kinds…and take action to help put it down.
Here at Bloor and Islington in TO….still same 8 listings…now in 7 the week….but none are lowering their prices.
Guess they are not listening to your advice and keep losing possible offers…and surely lower prices are to come.

Can’t wait until end of next year when 3 Tridel high rise ( one 45 floors….sold in one week last fall)…will be finished and as has been the trend….hundreds of for sales signs to emerge…..of course by those speculators..BUT this time most will not get what they are hoping for.
Actually one other 26 floor Tower by Concert Properties…which also sold in a couple of months nearby will also be finished….HERE…..comes supply over demand.

#51 oncebittwiceshy on 08.11.17 at 8:04 pm

vic market on 08.11.17 at 7:12 pm
Sorry, but there is no 2K houses for rent in Victoria for the likes of a doctor everything is through the roof for rent even in all the surrounding communities. and even fewer landlords that I prepared to take a price reduction in the hottest rental market around. Nice try. must be a two bedroom condo<<<<<<<<<<<<<

…. or maybe just look at Craigslist. I think any doctor could come up with a little bit more.

Mind you, the first one says that it is rented. Maybe the good doctor convinced him that he will stick around long enough to merit a 10% reduction.

$2250 / 3br – 2000ft2 – Gorgeous 3 Bedroom Character Home (Victoria West)

Perfect House $2200 3br – 1340ft2 – (Fairfield)

$2480 / 3br – 1800ft2 – 3 Bedroom 2 Bathroom Oceanfront House in Ten Mile Point (Saanich East)

#52 ANON on 08.11.17 at 8:05 pm

If those numbers are true in the top market, they spell out like this: c.*.n.t.a.g.i.*.n. Would you like to buy a vowel?

#53 BK on 08.11.17 at 8:05 pm

Yawn… Toronto, Toronto, Toronto. No news of this massive collapse anywhere. What about Vancouver? Is it different this time…I hope not. All your other financial advice is great.

#54 the Jaguar on 08.11.17 at 8:08 pm

Funny how #27 (I can’t bear to type his name) just keeps coming back for more punishment. No surprise that he was identified as a prime suspect by some on the blog re the issue that occupied the blog yesterday evening and today. Today he writes ” I expected better of you, Garth”, as though Garth gave a fig what #27 thinks. Feels like a hollywood B movie. Better words than ‘fig’, of course, but I think Garth leaves his post readable for all for the usual reason: ” give ’em enough rope and they always hang themselves”.

One thing is clear, Garth. If you, or D, or the great white B were trapped in a burning building, this entire blog would be rushing back in to rescue you.

#55 oncebittwiceshy on 08.11.17 at 8:14 pm

#24 I’m sorry: “They just had the fastest rate of house price increases in 50 years last month. Average 1 berm condo now $880,000!”

Wow, I really don’t know if you are naive or just another shill.

Try your own research. Realtor.ca – 62 listings for one bedroom condos under $500,000. Hell, there is just about a dozen under $350,000.

How about 2 bedrooms…another 10 under $500,000.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.11.17 at 8:15 pm

@#27 Whining Angry Arrogant A$$%0

Dear WAAA.
Would you like cheese with that whine?

#57 AB Boxster on 08.11.17 at 8:17 pm

So housing in Mississauga is down 230k from its peak in April.

That’s about the same price I paid for my second home back in 2000.
Big house. 1/4 acre lot. Brand frigging new.

Housing is still ridiculously overpriced even with the price declines.

#58 Yuus bin Haad on 08.11.17 at 8:17 pm

Weird – the last time I was seriously trolled, the duct cleaning guys showed up too … go figure.

#59 Ace Goodheart on 08.11.17 at 8:19 pm

Good to hear you have recovered from the unfortunate losers who like to hurt people while hiding behind computer screens. Reality of these jokes of humanity is they could not, in the words of a famous musician, bust a grape in a fruit fight.

At any rate back to real estate.

Real estate is a hard investment. But it is like any other investment. If you want to play it you need two things. A bet and a bit of street sense.

Like any investment you have to bet that something will happen. And you need the street sense to be right.

What happened in Canada is that a combination of our safe haven status, low interest rates, a disaster South of the border and a population boom of 30 something’s apparently caused by a power outage that I still actually remember resulted in a bit of a price bubble.

Which is now deflating (though not in Toronto – if you want to live in Cabbagetown now is the time people seriously these houses will never be this cheap again)

In other news if you have relatives in Venezuela get them out now. We have a government that has outlawed opposition parties, an economy in free fall, armed militias talking about honour and an election showdown on the horizon. This has the makings of a humanitarian disaster the likes of which has not been seen in a while.

Time to crack open that spare room in the basement and get your friends and relatives out of that country.

#60 Jake on 08.11.17 at 8:19 pm

Prices are not falling nearly as much as the averages suggest. The sales mix has changed significantly which is skewing the numbers. If you compare sales for identical properties you can see this.

#61 bike lanes of Toronto on 08.11.17 at 8:21 pm

#32 TurnerNation on 08.11.17 at 7:12 pm

Leftist pap in Toronto. A flood lately of feel good “Bike lane” stories. In a city where it’s -10c for months on end. (Who’d bike then?)

Say are doctors also supporting a Downtown Relief Subway line (it’s been talked about for decades, no action for us). No way the elites will give us 1st World technology. No mandate in law for Tesla charging stations or solar arrays in new condo builds either.

No it’s all bikes and rickshaws. Fellow Komrades in this 2nd world country.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2017/08/11/why-doctors-support-bike-lanes-theyre-healthier-for-everyone.html

—-

Idiots of Toronto create bike lanes on roads with most heavy car traffic and promote inhaling exhaust as “healthy”.

#62 Long-Time Lurker on 08.11.17 at 8:25 pm

Stay cool and safe, Garth!

Ray Dalio of Bridgewater put in a gold hedge.

Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has a New Position in GLD and IAU

The founder of the world’s largest hedge fund recommends a 5%-to-10% position in gold.

By Crystal Kim Aug. 11, 2017 9:16 a.m. ET

http://www.barrons.com/articles/ray-dalios-bridgewater-associates-has-a-new-position-in-gld-and-iau-1502457385

I tried to put this up two weeks ago but the website failed.

How to blow $167 million.

How tennis legend Boris Becker blew $167 million

http://www.news.com.au/sport/sports-life/how-tennis-legend-boris-becker-blew-167-million/news-story/2fdda8ed2b698ef2f5da0d63e8b4ab50

#63 Ian on 08.11.17 at 8:26 pm

I was reflecting today how tiresome it is to hear Trump talk about fake news. But we are seeing now that Canadian media is completely fulfilling that promise when they talk about real estate.

I don’t know whether they are biased because of advertisers, or whether they have no clue. But for a national body like the CBC to be misleading people in a bullish bias about real estate is not only beyond scary, it’s beyond objectionable. They should be reporting the facts.

I noticed on Zolo today that median Toronto has now cracked 600 and is on 590k. Next stop 400.

I can’t wait for the rest of this year!!! Happy 2% Stress Test!! Happy BoC Day October edition!!!

#64 Blacksheep on 08.11.17 at 8:26 pm

As T.O. tanks, Van takes off, yet again.

Give those with mobile investment $’s the option of the sweaty GTA or The cool west coast, (both 15% F.B.T.) T.O. doesn’t stand a chance.

#65 dogsRbetterThanKatz on 08.11.17 at 8:28 pm

Stress test article from bnn.
http://www.bnn.ca/realtors-brace-for-next-mortgage-crackdown-amid-shadow-banking-fear-1.827890

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.11.17 at 8:30 pm

@#330 Ned Flanders
“…..either gas it or have it authenticated with either a Facebook or LinkedIn account….”
++++++

Hey diddly Ho neighbor!
Since I cant be bothered with a Facebook or LinkedIn account ….should I assume I fall into the “gas it” realm of options?

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.11.17 at 8:34 pm

@#24I’m Sorry
“I’m sorry but prices in Toronto aren’t collapsing. This is the only site that says so. And Vancouver prices are at record highs. They just had the fastest rate of house price increases in 50 years last month…..”
********

Sooooo, What type of food DO Delusians eat on the Planet Sales Commission?

#68 LS in Arbutus on 08.11.17 at 8:39 pm

RE #5 and #19: How much to spend on a house

I think you probably don’t to have a mortgage any bigger than 3-4 times your gross. Beyond that, it should be down payment.

How high you go depends on how much you it costs to rent an equivalent place and how much you don’t mind having no return on your equity. So start doing the rent vs own calculations.

It also depends how much prices drop. Here on the west side of Vancouver, I would not touch a place unless it had dropped 50% from the height of the market. So the average $2.7 million knock down going for $1.4 million or less.

But yeah $1.4 million for a knock down plus a new house at $600k = $2 million. You can rent a pretty decent place for $4,000 – $5,000 a month, which is $50k or $60k a year, equivalent to a total cost of $1.0 mn to $1.2 mn equity at a 5% return. Still ridiculous and hard to believe it will be a very good investment long term if this thing really blows…… and to be sure, west side of Vancouver, market IS dead right now and listing are piling up.

#69 Mark on 08.11.17 at 8:41 pm

“Prices are not falling nearly as much as the averages suggest. The sales mix has changed significantly which is skewing the numbers. If you compare sales for identical properties you can see this.”

I agree, mix changes exaggerate both the upside, as well as the downside. But prices didn’t go up as much as the averages suggest either, so basically we’re slightly beneath the 2013 plateau at this point in the GTA/GVR. But probably heading lower, much lower as time goes on.

#70 niagara_region on 08.11.17 at 8:45 pm

Sales volume dropping rapidly in Niagara with areas like Fort Erie, Port Colborne approaching a 50% drop in sales volume over last year and prices are only a few perfect away from 2016 levels and still dropping. Inventory keeps building with no buyers in sight. Bidding wars are long gone and houses are routinely dropping prices. Prices will crater by the end of the year. If you’re selling get out now.

#71 For those about to flop... on 08.11.17 at 8:47 pm

Is Vancouver still hot? No significant price drops noted in the media. I think flop needs to get a gig as a guest star on Global.

/////////////////////////////////

It would have to be radio as I’m too ugly for television.

Is Vancouver still hot?

I dunno,but if this trend line was any more vertical you could use it as a strippers pole in your spare bedroom…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

#72 Freedom First on 08.11.17 at 8:49 pm

Thanks for the good news update concerning your new offers of security, Garth!

Your fans, including me, genuinely care about you. We all know you are a good man Mr. Turner.

Thank you for all you do to help!
(And entertain (<: us)

Freedom First

#73 Tony on 08.11.17 at 8:50 pm

Re: #23 Oil Guy on 08.11.17 at 6:44 pm

All you have to know is you can be assured Edmonton real estate will fall in value each and every year throughout the decades. You might think I’m buying low until real estate keeps on falling in Edmonton. Look here you might think isn’t that a low price? But no the price will be less, much less in the future as everything on mls rots and then relists again.

http://www.edmontonhomesweb.com/listing/e4063579-na-edmonton-ab/

#74 Oakville Sucks on 08.11.17 at 8:58 pm

Dumb asses are still listing at higher prices than the peak after deals falling through. In complete denial of the last 4 months!

#75 crossbordershopper on 08.11.17 at 9:04 pm

DELETED

#76 TS on 08.11.17 at 9:06 pm

#5 the ryguy:

My wife and I decided that max three times net (not gross) household earnings at the age of 35.

At 35, my wife and I made around $150,000 which meant we brought home around $90,000 – $100,000 so we were comfortable buying a $300,00 home in Ottawa.

And we’re not upgrading no matter how much more money we make.

You need to draw the line somewhere so I think 35 gives you 25 years to pay it off.

Who wants a mortgage past 60?

#77 When the Whip Comes Down on 08.11.17 at 9:11 pm

#60 Jake – so according to your numbers how much is the avg price decline over the same period when you review sales of identical properties?

#78 Suede on 08.11.17 at 9:21 pm

Nevermind Vancouver condos on fire..

Bitcoin baby

Segwit2 for the win

Only cowboys need apply

#79 Cristian on 08.11.17 at 9:24 pm

“I feel bad for my children who will likely never own property in a major Canadian centre even if they go to medical school.”

He may be a doc but he’s still an idiot who has not understood anything despite all he’s been through. “Oh my poor babies who’ll never own a stupid wooden box and instead will be free to travel, to enjoy life, to look for a better job if desired, to invest for a good retirement. Oh, my poor babies…”

#80 Dolce Vita on 08.11.17 at 9:24 pm

#12 Vancouverite
#24 I’m sorry

I”m sorry, but Vancouver is on fire…reality in realty:

Zolo for Vancouver today (all property types):

Avg. Price: $1.1 million
Monthly Change: -17.5%
Quarterly Change: -19.6%
Yearly Change: -5.2%

1 Bd Condo $619K, $528K a year ago (+17%)
3 Bd Condo $1.9 MM, $2.2 MM a year ago (-11%)
All Condo $847K, $776K a year ago (+9%)

Median prices will be much lower. For example, Average = $1.1 MM, Median = $835K.
____________________________

My Realty Check today on List Price changes, all properties:

664 Price Changes, Up: 188, Down: 504

Avg. Price Changes:
Jan 2017 -3.88%
Feb 2017 -2.88%
Mar 2017 -1.67%
Apr 2017 -1.61%
May 2017 -0.34%
June 2017 -0.95%
July 2017 -0.4%
Aug 2017 -1.77% (today), a few days ago -1.85%
____________________________

Only thing moving is Condo’s and not all of them. Everything else, well, NEGATIVE.

Somebody is dousing that fire in Vancouver…

#81 conan on 08.11.17 at 9:27 pm

#45 Bob Dog on 08.11.17 at 7:44 pm

“I for one am very concerned that we have no debtor prisons in Canada”

We do and we don’t.

Fraud debt = we do.
Entrepreneur debt = we don’t

#82 Kim on 08.11.17 at 9:33 pm

For Vancouver, people are saying it’s the sales mix and it is. Yes condos have caught up to detached but this is because of Clarks free money basically giving first time buyers another 200k to buy with (40k interest free down payment going to 20% means 200k more). So this is what we are seeing. And then as people move up they can afford properties above the maximum of 750k for which the free money applies. But as you move up to detached it gets very difficult. For instance if you have 1 million in down payment, to move to a 3 million dollar home you still need to borrow 2 million which is stretching it for local incomes even thought you have 33% down. This is why the detached market is DEAD and averages are dropping. Once rates accelerate you will see the condo market die off and the last ones in will be sorry.

#83 Ret on 08.11.17 at 9:44 pm

Iroquois Ontario. Pop.1027 (2016) A small rural farming village on Highway #2 in eastern Ontario, with some really nice people I might add.

This is what happens when Ontarians give governments in Ontario too much money.

http://www.cornwallnewswatch.com/2017/05/15/kemptville-firm-will-build-iroquois-roundabout/

The good people of Iroquois’s lives will no doubt be forever improved by the $1300+ spent for every resident of the village but by how much?

How else could the $1.39M have been spent or spread around to improve their lives?

Is this a real economic GDP increase or are we just chowing down more political pork to keep the numbers for Ontario looking good?

#84 Citizen on 08.11.17 at 9:46 pm

What’s the point, the prices now are the ones we had last year. So houses didn’t gain anything for a year, but still are overpriced. Even with a 20% fall in prices. I really hope this is just the beginning, but to be honest I think the prices can grow back quite fast. Again, all the people are thinking “can I afford the monthly payment for the mortgage or not?” and if they can afford it, they buy a house. So unless we have crazy raises of the base rate, the houses are still gonna be very expensive.

#85 conan on 08.11.17 at 9:51 pm

Big show down with North Korea next week. Very much like something out of a Western movie. Grab popcorn, or duck and cover?

https://youtu.be/c6Am_AzjDUg?t=3

#86 young & foolish on 08.11.17 at 9:52 pm

“If you’re selling get out now.”

The question is can you? It’s panicky for sellers now, dealing with doubts about closing and buyers walking away. Every day brings more bad news. Seems like a run for the exits in underway (remember 2007-8?). Many are probably testing the market, but those that have to sell, like speculators, might be left holding the bag.

#87 Funky on 08.11.17 at 9:53 pm

Garth,
I hope the duct cleaning offer was gratis.

Thank you yet again.

#88 NEVER GIVE UP on 08.11.17 at 10:07 pm

#39 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.11.17 at 7:21 pm
Happy Housing Crash you dirty shysters.
====================================

If one defrauds or misleads another resulting in the loss of or Transfer of wealth to another, then the Fraudster is defacto maiming or even killing people.

Let me explain.
Money is really a store of LIFE. With money you can enjoy life and it can be argued that that extends life.

It can also be argued that money can buy LIFE in certain instances when US Style Health care is involved or even here in Canada when our Health care system will not employ the latest treatments and you need money to go abroad for the best treatment.

I remember when there was a shortage of Kidney dialysis machines. I think this was in the 1970’s. People were dying as a result of the lack of funding for many of these $100,000.00 machines at the time.

When you add $500,000.00 to ones house price by fraudulent means such as CREA House pumping statistical manipulation. You are defacto Stealing all the hard working years of the people who need to pay off the mortgage.

Stealing LIFE….

#89 cmj on 08.11.17 at 10:10 pm

Garth,
I am also glad to hear of the support you have on this blog and how internet security stepped up to also offer help. You are not easily intimidated and these bullies need to hear that. Thanks again for all you do for each of us

#90 weak end on 08.11.17 at 10:14 pm

#85 conan on 08.11.17 at 9:51 pm

Big show down with North Korea next week.

Done by the time you wake up Monday morning.

#91 CANADA on 08.11.17 at 10:16 pm

Maybe the doc can reread what he wrights next time instead of auto correcting it.

#92 Leo on 08.11.17 at 10:17 pm

That doctor’s story does not even remotely add up.
There were no houses listed around April for about $1.5M that sold for around $1.3M after more than 60 days on market.
Sales in that price range ($1.25M-$1.5M) were:
April 2017: 23
May: 31
June: 29
July: 15

So a big drop in July, but last year was similar, where sales dropped from 32 in June to 19 in July.
2015 sales were less than half of 2017 sales for same months.

Then he/she rented a place for $3000/month starting sometime between December and July and only a couple months later the landlord dropped $1000/month off the rent because they were such good and “long term” tenants???? Does not compute especially in Victoria’s insane rental market.

And the good doctor is convinced prices will fall but at the same time thinks his kids will never be able to afford a house?

I think you fell for some fake news there, Garth.

#93 Millmech on 08.11.17 at 10:22 pm

#45
We do have debtor prisons,people here just live in them,call them homes!

#94 wendi1 on 08.11.17 at 10:30 pm

Glad you’re feeling better, Garth, and hope the wife is the same.

#95 Raging Ranter on 08.11.17 at 10:30 pm

He’s been “Banned”. He’s been “Lied About”. But he won’t back down! He’s Canadian Millennial, and he’s here again tonight (#27), fighting for justice!

#96 meslippery on 08.11.17 at 10:40 pm

We left for cheap northern Ontario.
#22 Algonquin Settler (formerly Cdn Mom)
———————–
Housing much less expensive? Yes. Everything else way more.
I have access to nofrills, food basics,walmart ect.
kijiji with a population to make it work.

#97 EP on 08.11.17 at 10:47 pm

Banana Republics have two currencies.
We have two interest rates – one for the government and one for everyone else.

#98 fancy_pants on 08.11.17 at 10:49 pm

Disappointing to hear of threats. Pathetic. There are good people here too. All the best to the faithful blog dogs and especially the host, Mr Turner. I’ve been here on this blog since @ 2010. Enjoyed it immensely. Still do.

#99 sam on 08.11.17 at 11:04 pm

prices in GTA increased by 200% since 2005. 30% will not make any difference. Still a long way to go..

#100 bubu on 08.11.17 at 11:24 pm

hahaha… call me when the median house will be 3 – 3.5 median income… until then you can’t afford anything decent.

#101 Got out in time on 08.11.17 at 11:45 pm

#2 Mike

Just sent in…

Proposed changes absolutely need to be implemented and they are in my humble estimate about 8-10 years late but lets hope not too late. Yes there would be some financial hurting in terms of lost equity in real estate but those where paper gains anyhow. Continuing to allow everyone to purchase house and start monetizing perceived paper gains is just not smart. Moral hazard behind this practice is staggering. Citizens of this beautiful country have stoped taking any business risks since it is way easier to get a loan(mortgage) for the unproductive asset such as house (and do nothing while watching equity go up) vs trying to convince the bank to give you a loan for the business venture and employ people and work hard to succeed. And at the end of the day if things go wrong with real estate market we are all going to pay the price since government will have to bail out banks and not have funds to cover other basics and perhaps even medical services. Just because majority of the people suddenly became delusional and adopted as a goal in life and as a financial plan real estate ownership it is not fair to spread that risk on the rest of the country and rest of the citizens. If people who choose to do this, purchase real estate, and make millions while government is not even taxing wealth gains kudos to them just please make sure the risk associated with the payout is appropriate and appropriately assigned.

PS: Please do not cave in to the demands from the real estate cartel and water down or god forbid postpone implementation of proposed changes. Canadians and to some degree rest of the world is watching what are you going to do. You should at least give the appearance of being independent and able to make decisions for greater good of our great country.

Best regards,

Sent from my iPhone

#102 Mrs. Fool on 08.11.17 at 11:48 pm

You see Garth? You have created a great community here.

It may come the day that you will decide to shut down this site but I’m glad is not tonigh :) And please, keep the blog free… I’m sure many of your readers aren’t 1%ers and are struggling to make ends meet (like myself), so paying a fee wouldn’t help to the most in need of financial literacy.

The comment section is an important part of the blog (I have learnt from many blog dogs too) and keeping it is important for the sake of diversity in point of views. Thank you for allowing us to express our opinions.

Nice weekend everybody…

#103 Mark on 08.11.17 at 11:55 pm

Does anybody know what recourse a seller has if a buyer backs out?

My parents sold in the GTA and the closing date was today. They had a call from the lawyer saying the buyer was requesting an extra week for financing due to needing to get a bridge loan of some sort. The deposit was 30k so I have a hard time believing that they would walk at this point. It was an unconditional offer, not even dependant on financing. I know the BC court set a precedent recently but that’s a lot of stress to go through…any insight?? Thanks!

#104 guru on 08.12.17 at 12:05 am

Guru back again… nothing more to say but to rehash what i discussed a few months ago. The general census among the bankers here has/was been a 40-50% drop in the GTA by XMAS. The outer regions of Barrie, Newmarket, Milton, Brampton, Oshawa will see up to 60% drops. Market will bottom out over the next decade. The stress test in Oct along with another rate hike is all but written in stone…… Remember, those that are in the ‘know’ are a small percentage. There are a lot of people who have no clue what will/could happen in the next 12 months and these are the ones that are jumping in head first with the biggest debt of their life.

#105 Robert White on 08.12.17 at 12:06 am

Racism has no place in business, finance, or the work world. Have to agree on a no tolerance level for that sort of anti-social behaviour that does not exactly win friends or influence people in anything positive in life, eh. As SHTF people are bound to become histrionically pathological in terms of their collective personalities of which blog owners should be hyperaware. Formally, threats of death should be reported to police. Government policy is to report it to union leadership. Unions follow best practices of governance and the rule of thumb is to report threats.

Sorry you have to spend time with those sorts of characters, Garth.

#106 Asterix1 on 08.12.17 at 12:07 am

We have not seen anything yet! Get some popcorn. The correction is morphing into a massive crash in most of GTA!

In Toronto, some neighborhoods will be fine, but many will get butchered by the incoming tidal wave of debt, rate increase, OSFI, speculation and just plain old bad judgement.

The good news:

Toronto (GTA) will be saved in the long run by this real estate crash as it will reshuffle this terrible deck. A city must remain attractive to survive, it starts with affordable housing that correlates with local income.

#107 Algonquin Settler on 08.12.17 at 12:08 am

“#96 meslippery on 08.11.17 at 10:40 pm
We left for cheap northern Ontario.
#22 Algonquin Settler (formerly Cdn Mom)
———————–
Housing much less expensive? Yes. Everything else way more.
I have access to nofrills, food basics,walmart ect.
kijiji with a population to make it work.”
………

Meh. Gas is slightly more expensive in northern Ontario, but commutes are measured in a few minutes. No idling forever in heavy traffic, or backed up due to accidents. Closer to the ski hill, rock climbing, soccer, the beach, or camp (the Cottage, for southerners). Cheaper daycare. Lower car insurance rates in northern Ontario, as opposed to southern Ontario.

The highest expenses (everything else) I’ve experienced were in BC. I about choked when I saw the high food prices when I moved there mid 90s, as compared to northern Ontario. Sears catalogue back then, pre-internet, had a price for the west, which was higher than the price for the east. Found that surprising. My car insurance STILL hasn’t hit the level it was at in BC in the 90s.

Consumer goods? Choices. Local, internet, and if you’re close to the border, there’s the US. It is 2017. I do still try to buy local as much as possible, but outside of food I’m not much of a shopper. I did save almost $3,000 by buying my new furnace in the US.

Anything that is more expensive will never equal the RE price differences, especially once you calculate interest. And then there’s quality of life, like my blue collar husband able to golf 3 days a week April to October, and we can afford the membership. Gotta’ live life.

#108 Bas on 08.12.17 at 12:31 am

Hi Garth, what needs to happen so that you can call TO’s RE market healthy and good to buy into ?

#109 M-cube on 08.12.17 at 12:34 am

Jim Morrison said it best with “no one here gets out alive”.

So relish the risks, the threats, and the general madness in all life. Worry is a waste of effort.

#110 Andrewt on 08.12.17 at 12:44 am

8:26 pm
I was reflecting today how tiresome it is to hear Trump talk about fake news. But we are seeing now that Canadian media is completely fulfilling that promise when they talk about real estate.

I don’t know whether they are biased because of advertisers, or whether they have no clue. But for a national body like the CBC to be misleading people in a bullish bias about real estate is not only beyond scary, it’s beyond objectionable. They should be reporting the facts.

Well, Don Pittis, who does business commentary for the online CBC news, has not shied away from sobering analysis of the bubble and household debt. He’s been pretty blunt about it all.

#111 People watching people on 08.12.17 at 1:14 am

Riding the elevator today there was a young fellow and a real estate agent going to view a condo. Young buck asked the agent, what’s this I hear about buyers walking away from deals? RE agent mumbles some incoherent nonsense and it dies in the elevator.

British exPat friend of mine living in Hong Kong came for a visit today and I talked a bit about the RE situation here. He was shocked to hear it. News outlets in HK reporting property prices are soaring to new heights in Canada. Too bad the HAM is stuck in China. People limited to moving 20000 Yuan ($3000 USD) a week out of the country with the very strict capital controls in place. Apparently there are cash mules that strap USD to their bodies to try to move large sums out of the country for a piece of the action.

#112 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.12.17 at 1:24 am

NEVER GIVE UP#88

You are bang on. Shysters are stealing lives. They financially murder people. It can take a life time of working for that $500,000 and shysters have made up buyers when there was none. We all remember this
https://www.thestar.com/life/homes/2012/07/04/stiffer_bidding_war_rules_sought_as_buyer_offers_90000_over_asking_with_no_rival_bids.html
Tip of the iceberg. You DIRTY EVIL SHYSTERS!

#113 Nonplused on 08.12.17 at 1:26 am

Another good blog post Garth hopefully no new threats (except that I still threaten to buy some ice cream! Too far away though so you are safe from my ice cream buying rampage that my family could easily inflict upon you! These kids I have know how to empty those barrels.)

I think the doc did well on the house and could have kept it, but if his kids are away and he is an empty nester why? If he decides to buy again he can look at something more in line with his current needs.

And why dis stuff so much? I have a lot of stuff. Even 2 motorcycles, a v-star 1300 I bought new at the bottom of the 2008 crash for about half price and a KLX 250 for my wife which was pretty cheap (she’s Amazon enough to ride it and until she’s confident on it I think that’s the best sort of bike to learn on.) But ya no getting stuff you don’t need and can’t afford. We don’t get to ride the bikes near as much as the insurance would suggest.

Don’t buy things you don’t need with money you don’t have. Not even tattoos, cutie waitress from yesterday. That was enough tattoos to pay for my v-star, and you can’t ride them. What was the decision process? And no they don’t make you any cuter. Instead they are a decision you made at 19 that you have to wear for life. Well, I guess there are a lot of decisions like that but at least I can sell the v-star. Wouldn’t ever sell the KLX though in the zombie Apocalypse that is the bike you are going to want.

#114 Jon B on 08.12.17 at 1:40 am

Really appreciate all you do here GT. Happy to hear others feel the same way. Cheers.

#115 Chelsea on 08.12.17 at 2:20 am

Putting a hold on buying in BC, until we hear the outcome in regards to the 2% speculation tax that the NDP are working on. Not clear on their tactics. The NDP have to raise revenue somewhere…. September we should know the result…

#116 96 Tears on 08.12.17 at 4:08 am

Look Out Manhattan – Chinese Foreign Real-Estate Spending Plunges 82%
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-10/look-out-manhattan-chinese-foreign-real-estate-spending-plunges-82
The pullback, they said, would be driven by China’s latest crackdown on capital outflows and corporate leverage, which they argued would lead to an 84% drop in overseas property investment by Chinese corporations during 2017, and another 18% in 2018.

#117 Sarah on 08.12.17 at 5:20 am

Vancouver prices are going back up big time now according to the news. Toronto is next. It’s fun to listen to this blog trying to plead that foreign buyers have nothing to do with it.

#118 Oft deleted much maligned truth telling stock picker on 08.12.17 at 5:35 am

DELETED

#119 Canuk In Augusta on 08.12.17 at 6:55 am

Yes, I would also pay a monthly fee for access.

#120 neo on 08.12.17 at 7:04 am

#64 Blacksheep on 08.11.17 at 8:26 pm
As T.O. tanks, Van takes off, yet again.

Give those with mobile investment $’s the option of the sweaty GTA or The cool west coast, (both 15% F.B.T.) T.O. doesn’t stand a chance.

*******************************************

Look again…

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

Vancouver is tanking again.

Down 17.3% Monthly change
Down 20.3% Quarterly change
Down 7% YOY change

#121 Nick on 08.12.17 at 8:11 am

Market still moving in London. Listed 720k, sold 770k. Listed 999k sold 1040k.
Things have softened here but no “crash”, prices still crazy up from 1 & 2 years ago.

So is the “don’t own real estate” National advice or just for the completely idiotic YVR & GTA markets? My 430k house, purchased in 2009 is paid off and could easily fetch 650k now. My 4% YoY target is easily met and I don’t have to worry about landlords and live in a house that I could never rent for cheaper than 3k, no to mention kids stability, etc.

I will say I dodged a bullet since I almost put in an offer for the 1040k place. Many dificiencies there put me off but the state of the market currently and the warnings here (although sometimes I feel are overly generalized and alarmistic) kept me at bay.

So where to park my money? Are REITs still good? How about MICs, especially with the looming new rules and interest rates?

You said to lower Canadian and US exposure. .

What is the current definition of “Balanced Portfolio”

#122 Paulo on 08.12.17 at 8:21 am

#103 Answer For mark.

from your post it sounds like the purchasers are having problems securing the required funding (mortgage) to close the deal. This is the most common reason for default currently.

going to the courts for relief should be considered the last option, it is costly time consuming and once you get judgement enforcement and realization of money is very questionable.

i would advise that your parents should work with the purchaser and try to save the deal, this would likely require them to consider holding a second mortgage
this has pro’s and cons but could work out very well in the end.

the next option would be to negotiate a contract termination fee, deposit plus a reasonable sum to release the purchaser from the contract.

in the current market your parents want to arrive at a resolution in a timely manor, if they need to re list the sooner the better.

good luck with the situation,there are plenty of defaults happening, and a increasing number of after the fact renegotiation’s taking place currently

#123 Julia on 08.12.17 at 8:31 am

#103 mark

You can come to an agreement to amend the sale terms and if they back out and you sell for less you have to sue.
Can be costly and lengthy.

#124 Oft deleted much maligned always honest stock picker on 08.12.17 at 8:43 am

I might add that ….if the issue of ‘fairness’ is truly close to the heart of our finance minister Moroneau……..and our petulant “PM”..they would tax all money coming in to Canada as if it had been earned in Canada….and….adjust incoming currency to par with the Canadian Tite money currently used a our float….then ‘fairness ‘ would indeed level the playing field and allow Canadians to ‘fairly’ compete for their housing stock. Canadians can’t compete because our dollar is manipulated low….and Canadians are egregiously taxed above almost all other incoming competing currencies. A UK pound makes for a 50% discount on houses….a US dollar gives an unequal 40% discount….a Vaginese Yuan ….ditto. So….if we are going to be taxed more and our currency is kept at artificially low value…..then why not make ‘fairness ‘ really fair and either level the playing field at the border or disallow foreign currency altogether forcing foreigners to adhere to the same regime as Canadians?

#125 Sarah on 08.12.17 at 9:25 am

Anyone who questions the role of foreign buyers in the Canadian Real Estate market is automatically considered a “racist”.

Not automatically. But it’s an easy leap. Prices are where they are because of moronic Canadians, not opportunistic foreigners. — Garth

#126 40 something family man on 08.12.17 at 9:28 am

#99

When dealing with investments, you have to understand that losses are asymetric to gains!!!

If it is true prices are down 30% in 4 months, how long before we are down 50%?

To break even, down 50%, you would have to be up 100%!!

I seriously doubt majority of Canadians are up 200% on their realestate, but if they were at the peak, this market has to fall 65% for them to break even.. thats a long way to fall, but who would have though prices would fall 30% this quickly?

#127 Sarah on 08.12.17 at 9:29 am

Absolutely foolish Canadians are by far the biggest role players in this bloated beast of a RE bubble but people refusing to acknowledge what is going on in Vancouver because it is considered “politically incorrect” to mention it, need to have their heads examined.

#128 Frank and beans on 08.12.17 at 10:03 am

Just bought a brand new home for 350K about 2 hours outside TO.

Big city life is so cool. Lol.

They have the Internet?? — Garth

#129 conan on 08.12.17 at 10:04 am

Paulo on 08.12.17 at 8:21 am

“the courts for relief should be considered the last option, it is costly time consuming and once you get judgement enforcement and realization of money is very questionable.”

You got that right, sometimes though, getting that judgement and signing it over to a collection agency, at maximum commission, is a great feeling.

#130 I Fart with Fire and Fury! on 08.12.17 at 10:31 am

Talk about noxious gas coming from the butt cheeks of the real estate cartel!

Don’t trust a word they say, ever.

FFF

#131 oncebittwiceshy on 08.12.17 at 10:45 am

Sarah: “Vancouver prices are going back up big time now according to the news. Toronto is next. It’s fun to listen to this blog trying to plead that foreign buyers have nothing to do with it.”<<<<<<<<<<<

Sarah, of course foreign buyers have something to do with this bubble …. same as the U.S.A.

The only difference on this blog is that Garth doesn't let the realtors, shills and specuvestors try to bury the blog in the mindless pumping of the rich foreign invasion.

The media did that work for you on the way up. If they aren't doing it for you now, you're not going to achieve it here.

You're best bet is to get out while you can or beat the rush to the exits for a real job.

#132 nick on 08.12.17 at 11:09 am

Looks like Bremont is having trouble selling units at their Wasaga townhouse development. They had their “VIP preview” in June. THEY ARE MOVE IN READY HOMES ie: sold after construction, with a Summer 2017 release… and they just sent out this email….

http://imgur.com/a/feKGd

“BEACH2O is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to purchase a vacation home just steps to the beach. This exclusive collection of only fifteen 3-bedroom beach towns designed by the renowned Hudson Kruse, are turn-key and will be move-in ready in Summer 2017.

Now Previewing, BEACH2O will be offering these ready-built homes, featuring unique Canadiana architecture and stylish designer finishes as move-in ready homes. Call to book your personal appointment today.

Starting at 500K”

#133 nick on 08.12.17 at 11:18 am

Just want to add, there were ONLY FIFTEEN (15) townhomes built and they are offering HUGE purchase incentives, less than 2 months after their “VIP Preview”.

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.12.17 at 11:30 am

@#130 FFF

I dont care what the Real Estate Sales Cartel sez…
You sound like a very intelligent person.
We have a lot in common, second of which, is our intelligence.

#135 Leo Trollstoy on 08.12.17 at 11:41 am

I was contacted by Internet security experts, lawyers specializing in cyber crime and even some duct-cleaning guys. – Garth

How much did they charge to clean your ducts?

#136 ulsterman on 08.12.17 at 11:42 am

NEVER GIVE UP#88

You are bang on. Shysters are stealing lives. They financially murder people. It can take a life time of working for that $500,000 and shysters have made up buyers when there was none. We all remember this
https://www.thestar.com/life/homes/2012/07/04/stiffer_bidding_war_rules_sought_as_buyer_offers_90000_over_asking_with_no_rival_bids.html
Tip of the iceberg. You DIRTY EVIL SHYSTERS!

All professions have their shysters and crooks, but i think the house selling industry attracts far more because it’s so easy to get into the game. Most professions require a huge effort of time and money to qualify, and most people do not want to be struck off for dodgy practices. Too much to lose. The house seller salespeople can get in with a short course and the enforcement for misconduct appears very slack, so they have much to gain from lying and exaggeration.

#137 Canadian Expat on 08.12.17 at 11:47 am

But the average GTA detached in July was 1,000,336 according to TREB data. Where do you get 960k from Garth? Thanks love your blog

From internal TREB stats. — Garth

#138 ulsterman on 08.12.17 at 11:53 am

#121 Nick on 08.12.17 at 8:11 am

This is the truth Nick. Most average punters no little about investments and even those that do get stuck with high fee mutual funds so most of their returns get eaten up.

It’s become passe to mention it here but the descipline and forced savings of a mortgage are essential for most of us. That doesn’t mean that buying in Toronot in the past year was a good idea, but it HAS been a good idea for the past 10-15 years.

You now have a paid off house that has appreciated, you’ve been able to make whatever changes you want to your home, and you haven’t received that dreaded phone call that lets you know the house is being sold out from under you and your family has to look for new digs. You also have the joy of being mortgage free.

I bet had you rented and invested the famous “difference,” you would not be in the great position you are today. But then again you could be like all the readers of this blog who called up y-charts and bought the day the market bottomed, had a balanced portfolio, reinvested all dividends, and are now sitting on high six-figure portfolios and are so thankful they didn’t waste money buying…yeah, riiiight.

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.12.17 at 12:10 pm

@#138 ulsterman
“Most average punters no little about……”
*****
In a Shakespearian frame of thought….

“To “no” or not to “know”….That is the question.”

But you “new” that.

#140 Tit For Tat on 08.12.17 at 12:20 pm

“Let’s see what he does with Guam,” Donald Trump told reporters during a news conference. “He does something in Guam, it will be an event, the likes of which nobody’s seen before, which is what will happen in North Korea.”

No! Let’s NOT see what he does with Guam. You can’t just offer up a US territory for target practice. It’s full of people! — Stephen Colbert

#141 InvestorsFriend on 08.12.17 at 12:21 pm

Albertans Still Building Houses

A publicly-traded property developer that I follow closely sold 92 home building lots in Q2 for an average price of $174k. This compared to the prior year with 89 at $160k. This would be down significantly from 2014 certainly. But it’s surprisingly strong given the recent Alberta recession. Edmonton was by far the larger area of sales. There were few sales in the Calgary region.

There is some sign of discounts on the sales as gross margin was 32%, similar to Q2 2016. But that compares to gross margins of 40% for all of 2015 and 45% in 2014.

#142 Oncebittwiceshy on 08.12.17 at 12:30 pm

ulsterman:”You now have a paid off house that has appreciated, you’ve been able to make whatever changes you want to your home,…….”<<<<<<<<<<

You are or should I say we're very accurate regarding most disciplined home buyer …. 30 yrs ago. The majority of today's buyers are luxuriating in the arms of bloated helocs.

There will be no happy endings for the majority.

#143 InvestorsFriend on 08.12.17 at 12:31 pm

Real Estate Will Always be Important

A real estate investment can be a poor investment at any given point in time.

But real estate will ALWAYS be a huge part of the economy. Nothing is grown without real estate. The definition of a City is lots and lots of buildings (and yes people but there is no modern town city or village without lots of buildings). Almost every activity undertaken by man (certainly in Canada given the weather) requires not only land but buildings. The improvement of land, the construction of buildings, the the sale and leasing and the use of buildings will always be a huge part of the economy. It is wrong to ever be dismissive of this part of the economy.

#144 Fake News Again on 08.12.17 at 12:52 pm

DELETED

#145 rainclouds on 08.12.17 at 1:08 pm

Ulsterman “All professions have their shysters and crooks”

Mostly correct, aside from: Commissioned House sales.

It is not a “profession”

“Profession” would intimate they are guided by principles, rigid educational standards, and robust oversight . None of which are apparent in that “industry”. It is an amalgam of ethically challenged idiots at the top with unmitigated greed as the prime motivator.

https://www.psc.gov.au/what-is-a-profession

At best An occupation and that is a stretch………yes there is the exception to every rule, a select few possess a moral compass. Never met one……..

Hopefully when this blows to smithereens some serious questions will be asked, doubtful, given this is Canada (the balkanized nation where bringing a case of beer across provincial lines warrants a full body cavity search)

#146 Fake News Again on 08.12.17 at 1:10 pm

#125 Sarah on 08.12.17 at 9:25 am
Anyone who questions the role of foreign buyers in the Canadian Real Estate market is automatically considered a “racist”.

Not automatically. But it’s an easy leap. Prices are where they are because of moronic Canadians, not opportunistic foreigners. — Garth

_______________________________

Garth you continue to live in a lonely cave on this one.

When 95% of GTA purchases and 90% of those in YVR are by locals, guess who sets prices? Believe what you want if it gives you comfort (and envy). — Garth

#147 conan on 08.12.17 at 1:22 pm

From internal TREB stats. — Garth

That’s probably ruffling a few feathers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0Lz0g4DP8w

#148 nick on 08.12.17 at 1:55 pm

#138 ulsterman

When real estate is reasonably priced, of course it can be a good idea to buy. Cost to carry homes used to be around 30% of income for the typical household. Problem is, your typical buyer is putting up 45%+ during these crazy times we see today and even in the late 80s/early 90s.

During times of all time low affordability, you have to evaluate the alternatives. Many that were typically not viable can become viable.

#149 Ace Goodheart on 08.12.17 at 1:58 pm

So the earth is furthest from the sun during our North American summer and closest to the sun during our winter. We get seasons due to the fact that our planet is tilted on its axis, likely the result of being hit by a large object at some time in the distant past. We get summer because North America is tilted towards the sun, so the Sun’s rays hit us more directly.

Past about Georgia USA the Sun’s rays are no longer strong enough to warm the air by heating the surface of the Earth. However we survive in the North due to southern winds moving warm air masses up here during our short summer.

Why do you care? No this is not a post about global warming. This is an investment blog.

You care because an entire ecosystem has evolved to structure itself after the results of a historical accident. That accident (the large object that hit us and tilted our planet) had nothing to do with our seasons. It may have been flying aimlessly through the cosmos for eons before it connected with Earth and created winter and summer.

Along with it, this object created the focal point of most subtropical religions (ie pray to a supreme being to ensure the sun comes back in the spring).

The whole system we know as our climate, our religions and our economies is really just the result of a rather unfortunate oops moment where two large objects attempted unsuccessfully to occupy the same place at the same time.

The point? You cannot be an active investor. All investing is passive. What you are doing when you invest is harvesting the results of historical accidents. You are informed as to history, watching the present and predicting the future. If you are right in your predictions, you win.

Happy weekend. I feel a beer calling me from the fridge. Answering the call…..

#150 nick on 08.12.17 at 2:13 pm

#146 Fake News Again

Garth you continue to live in a lonely cave on this one.

_________________________________________

He is right though.

The occasional asset overpaid for does not establish a trend.

People have overpaid for assets and homes for decades. Doesn’t mean that everyone has to follow suit.

Look up momentum/volume/trend strengths. These are basics which apply to pretty much any scenario in life.

#151 For those about to flop... on 08.12.17 at 2:25 pm

Pink Lemonade stand in Delta.

The next couple of cases I will be presenting are asking what they bought it for and its not done yet.

This guys paid 1.62 in March 2016 and if they are relying on the assessment to help them out then they are going to continue to struggle as it tops out at 1.3 and that is after leaping up over 400k.

Let’s see if they are going to lose their shirt or only one sock…

M43BC

493 Shannon Way, Delta

May 19:$1,750,000
Aug 10: $1,620,000
Change: – 130000.00 7%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=493%20Shannon%20Way,%20Delta&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1Vk1BQg==

#152 For those about to flop... on 08.12.17 at 2:26 pm

Pink Lemonade stand in Coquitlam.

Despite the city being positive year over year just like Delta you can still find people struggling to get their money back after the exuberance of the Spring Market 2016 without much effort.

This one was picked up for ask at 1.19 in Feb 2016, the assessment that came in later in the year agreed with their purchase,however the market is saying ” I’m not so sure”

This type of property should have no problem selling if it is onwards and upwards for the market, but the market is acting like it had to much Sangria and is ready to fall over and hibernate for the winter…

M43BC

942 Edgar Avenue,Coquitlam

Jun 22:$1,299,000
Aug 10: $1,199,000
Change: – 100000.00 -8%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=942%20Edgar%20Avenue,%20Coquitlam&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzWDhGMA==

#153 For those about to flop... on 08.12.17 at 2:43 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

This happens occasionally,where I stumble upon and older case while researching a current one.

A speculator picked this one up in the summer of 2014 and sold at a loss a handful of months later.

The details…

Paid 982k in August 2014

Sold 950k in December 2014

Roughly an 8% loss or roughly an 80k mistake.

The new buyer built a new house and is looking to cash in but they might of had deeper pockets than these guys…

M43BC

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzVzZCQQ==

#154 jess on 08.12.17 at 2:53 pm

ptyalism

https://yachtharbour.com/news/william-kallop-s-66m-yacht-seized-by-goldman-sachs-1908?src=home_page_bar_pos_4

Alisher Usmanov
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/24/i-spit-on-you-again-alisher-usmanov-video-alexei-navalny

#155 chopstix on 08.12.17 at 3:10 pm

good to hear, Garth, that the sick and twisted f**k who threatened your family might be nabbed…sure many of us can disagree with you on issues around the fundamentals driving Scamcouver real estate etc, but to offer violence…sick and twisted man….all the best.
————————————————————-
#22 Algonquin Settler (formerly Cdn Mom) on 08.11.17 at 6:39 pm
Glad you received all the support Garth.

This really bothers me:

“I feel bad for my children who will likely never own property in a major Canadian centre even if they go to medical school. Sad statement!!!”

Why do so many feel that living or owning property in “a major Canadian centre” is important? This is part of the build-up in the RE bubbles. This country needs to de-centralize itself.

I’ve lived in the northern Ontario bush, a town on Superior’s north shore, downtown Toronto, Guelph, a town on Huron’s northern shore, in two cities in the Fraser Valley, the Vancouver burbs, and now on Superior’s eastern shore. Each has its pros and cons. The only one I really didn’t enjoy was the Van burbs. Even in 98 one needed loads of cash for housing there. We left for cheap northern Ontario.

There is life beyond major centres, and it is usually a much less expensive life, and much more relaxed life. For a little over $100, I can hop on a 45 minute flight, land downtown in The Big Smoke, and do whatever I please. It’s a 15 minute drive to the airport, low traffic, and I only have to be there 30 minutes prior to departure. And I can sleep in my own bed that night if I want, on the big lake, listening to waves and loons, in a lovely house well under $200,000.

C’mon Canadians, take off the blinders. Those that do, and move here, stay.
————————————————————-
problem is jobs: many of us who are still working are of course drawn to cities with a good economy driving jobs….trust me: i’m sure MANY would love to flee Scamcouver (and Toronto’s) unrealistically high real estate/rental costs if they could find the same job and cheaper housing in another part of the country….the golden handcuffs….

#156 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 08.12.17 at 3:12 pm

The real estate board won’t tell you, but this blog will. The nation’s biggest, most influential real estate market continues its descent. Internal, super-secret, if-I-tell-you-I-must-kill-you realtor statistics for the first ten days of August aren’t pretty. Unless, of course, you’re rooting for a price collapse. Which just happened. – G Turner

Why wouldn’t the real estate industry report the facts (statistics)?

And if not from your local real estate board, where are you getting your facts (statistics) and how reliable are they??

We (organized real estate) report the market we don’t create it. It would not be in our best interest, let alone that of our clients, to mislead the public.

Buyers set the price, not Sellers and certainly not REALTORS®.

A Seller can ask what ever they want for their property, that doesn’t mean it will sell for that. Buyers ultimately set market price although it does take a ready, willing and able Seller to agree to that ready, willing and able Buyers offer.

REALTORS don’t buy or sell their clients product. What a REALTOR does, or is supposed to do, is help Buyers and Sellers make informed decisions and write legally enforceable contracts of purchase and sale. We aren’t marketing agents, we aren’t lawyers, we aren’t home stagers, home inspectors or bankers. REALTORS® are specialized agents who help educate Buyers and Sellers so that they can make informed decisions. Some clients are quicker to learn, some never do and look for someone else to blame for their folly.

We (REALTORS®) don’t care if the market goes up or down. Actually let me back up, quite frankly, in this overheated market, many of us are looking forward to a correction of sorts because it is difficult for a Buyer or a Seller to make informed decisions when the MSM is spewing so much garbage and sensationalizing matters.

If there is any organization that fuels the market in one direction or the other it is the MSM sensationalizing every nuance.

And then there is government which has turned the housing industry into the #1 driver of GDP and using it as a form of fiscal and monetary policy.

#157 Bonhomme Carnaval on 08.12.17 at 3:35 pm

@ #143 InvestorsFriend on 08.12.17 at 12:31 pm

Agreed. That’s why everyone should have REITs in their investment portfolio.

#158 Dan.t on 08.12.17 at 4:35 pm

#124 Oft deleted much maligned always honest stock picker
——-
Excellent points. Would still say Canadians are super brainwashed by HGTV and global, CBC and every other “news” to believe whatever’s they are told but to say vagina plays no role is YVR is crazy.

I also saw it first hand when I was in Asia. A very wealthy “vagina” asked me all about Canada… ended up buying home in 2006 cash in okanagan, plus boat, plus vehicle to tow new boat, plus… you get the idea.

Awesome for realtor, the car dealership, boat dealership, sure if house cost 1.8 vs just 400-500k at the time still would have bought!

True story and nothing hindsight, should have recognized what was coming… too late. Canada open for business, many Canadians benefit but many lose. Ask a 25 year old how good they feel about making it in YVR. Hope bank of mom sold high so jr can drop400k on a down payment.

#159 I Fart with Fire and Fury! on 08.12.17 at 5:29 pm

DELETED

#160 Jay (not that one) on 08.12.17 at 5:42 pm

@#5

I grew up in a number of communities that saw their primary industry die. Right after high school I spent 8 months unemployed because folks were snapping up every crappy part time job they could to keep up their payments. I also grew up in the middle of a housing crash, and watched my father fail to sell his house for *years*, and lose massive amounts of income because he couldn’t get out of Dodge.

In this context, I see prices like $500k or $600k as lunacy — you’d spend your life hoping nothing bad ever happened, because you’d be one trip-up from your life being totally ruined over a few pieces of wood stapled together. $700k or $900k is just stupidity.

Myself, I bought 2 years ago for $240k, with a large cash down payment. I moved cities to find a place houses were that cheap, because even $300k was overdoing it. That was the absolute max I was willing to pay without more cash on-hand, which would have taken longer to get.

With this house (which has a second suite we can rent out for the same price as our mortgage), I don’t need to worry about kissing ass to keep my job, I don’t have to watch every market uptick and downtick to make sure I’m not about to lose everything. Hell, it would be tight but we could survive off of EI if need be. I can also comfortably afford my mortgage if rates reach the historically normal rate of 8%. I’m currently on-track to be debt free except for my mortgage by January, so my exposure to rate fluctuations is limited to my 10 year mortgage rate renewal several years from now.

People might disagree with me, think I’m nuts for aiming so low. I’m ok with that. I’m the one who is responsible for paying my mortgage, not anyone else.

#161 Jay (not that one) on 08.12.17 at 6:13 pm

@#155,

It’s fallacious to state there are only jobs in Toronto and Vancouver.

In reality, folks take a pay cut to work in major centers more often than not, because everyone wants to live there, and there’s a huge supply of available workers.

More remote communities generally pay more because it’s more difficult to find workers. It’s much easier to attract folks to the big city.

Using this secret, I make a salary (not total compensation, just salary — obviously total compensation doesn’t rate for CEOs vs. peons like me) comparable to the average CEO. My colleague who insisted on staying in a major city after college has consistently made less than half of what I made.

#162 Ace Goodheart on 08.12.17 at 9:04 pm

So a bunch of people decided to march through the University of Virginia campus apparently protesting people who do not have what is referred to as white skin (actually kind of pink) living in apparently the USA.

The idea seems to be that these non white folks should leave. To where it is not stated. Most of them were actually born in the USA and have never lived anywhere else.

These “protests” against apparently skin color are covered by free speech laws and are ok. If you don’t like someone’s skin color you are free to.complain about it.

So march they did.

I would just like to say to all the neo Nazis and the alt right and the white supremists that I stand firmly with the people. Everyone. All lives matter.

You all have lost before. And you will lose again. Remember what happened in ww2.

I as a “white person” stand firmly with all of my friends, most of whom are not “white” and we will beat you, because we are alive and we love each other and we do not stand for stereotypes.

You’re not going to win, alt right or breitbart or whomever you are.

Your racist garbage will never win…..

Never

#163 Akashic record on 08.12.17 at 10:07 pm

Your good heart is appreciated.

Cartoonish analysis never cuts through even as simple distractions for the masses as colour-coded stereotypes, which are used for pushing buttons in various games, making feel pawned average joes of all hues as a superhero.

#164 SW on 08.12.17 at 10:15 pm

#83 Ret on 08.11.17 at 9:44 pm
“Iroquois Ontario. Pop.1027 (2016) A small rural farming village on Highway #2 in eastern Ontario, with some really nice people I might add…”

Thanks, buddy. However your knowledge of road repairs and associated costs should show that $1.3m is peanuts when it comes to putting down asphalt.

The junction you mention is a notorious black spot for accidents. I’ve had a few close calls there. Sight lines are deceptive. Only a little while since an old lady jumped a stop sign and killed a motorcyclist on the spur of Broken Second Rd (which will be closed as a consequence of the roundabout). I saw the air ambulance lift off for that one.

Personally, I think Iroquois could use a traffic light. It would give us all something to do…

#165 Dissident on 08.12.17 at 10:41 pm

Just came back from a dinner party. Topic of conversation included real estate. The smart people know there is no way to predict the market, and will say so. In spite of that however, a developer/architect/real estate agent (she’s got a PhD to boot) suggested waiting a year to see how things are if anyone is thinking of buying in the near future.

I have to agree and resist the ‘moister’ urge to just go and buy something. Maybe next year. Nobody wants to catch a falling knife or get ripped off. The Fall season is probably not going to be the ‘glorious’ comeback that so many realtors are predicting either, including ours who is openly saying that her team is purposely ‘holding back properties’ to sell them at that time rather than in the summer. Basically, this summer sucks cause the realtors are making it suck. How ironic. And they think they can orchestrate a ‘comeback’ in the Fall? Talk about manipulating the market. If the spring was great, then typically, the fall will slump, and vice versa.
I keep watching MLS, and there are plenty of properties that we viewed in person, and those we did not, that are still there, waiting for a buyer. Granted, they’re not amazing properties, many of which are basically tear-downs. But I digress. I don’t think the Fall will be the comeback the RE crowd is hoping it will be.

And thanks Garth for separating the wheat from the chaff. This is one of the only places I can get the most up to date stats on housing, upcoming and unannounced gov’t/fiscal policy changes, etc.

#166 45north on 08.12.17 at 11:14 pm

Algonquin Settler: There is life beyond major centres, and it is usually a much less expensive life, and much more relaxed life. For a little over $100, I can hop on a 45 minute flight, land downtown in The Big Smoke, and do whatever I please. It’s a 15 minute drive to the airport, low traffic, and I only have to be there 30 minutes prior to departure. And I can sleep in my own bed that night if I want, on the big lake, listening to waves and loons, in a lovely house well under $200,000.

eastern shore of Lake Superior? ok Depending on times, Porter flies from Sault Ste Marie to Toronto for $139 but it takes 1 hour 15 minutes. Union Gas serves the City ( of Sault Saint Marie ). Never been there:

http://www.sault-canada.com/en/ouruniqueadvantage/toptenreasons.asp

#167 nejonuw on 08.14.17 at 1:10 pm

Algonquin Settler: House on a lake under $200k sounds like a dream. Is this Sault Ste. Marie? As long as I can find work (or perhaps start a business); that is something I’ll definitely be looking into. So tired of this bustling city life.

#168 MARC on 08.15.17 at 2:52 am

How does all this affect housing markets in ALBERTA? we constantly hear about TO and Van but nothing anywhere else. How are the house’s in the 400-600k range going to fair? In Alberta those properties haven’t seen a large decrease in value (2-3%at most) It seems like almost nothing affects the price of these properties not even the huge downturn in oil. What are your thoughts?
In Alberta we still have young people myself included who make over 200k a year and can afford the cost of these houses that are expensive but nothing compared to TO and Van. If TO and Van lose the 20-30% how is this going to affect other parts of the country?