Not yet

Well, you know where things are headed when even the realtors are dissing the market. “Just , a little update for you,” says agent Uri Kogan who works a rich little turf in north TO. “Since the last email I sent you 0 houses have sold in this hood. And listings went down, from 76 to 66 – as houses are coming off the market.”

In other words, we have gone from 13 sales a week in May to none. In fact in all of July only six houses traded – in an area where a year ago there were multiple offers and homes selling for hundreds of thousands over asking. Now disparaged sellers are yanking their properties back, thinking everything will return to delusional normal after Labour Day.

But it won’t. This is terminal. The move-up real estate market has croaked.

And here’s the latest from blog pal Hanny Elsaed, whose site  tracks this bloodletting with morbid fascination, but sadly no dog pictures. This is a quick summary of what’s happening these days in the core and the hinterland – where FOMO forced prices into extremes. No more.

Richmond Hill
Detached home sales are down 72.4% while listings have grown by 103.9% year/year. The average price of $1.439 million plunged 14% in July.

Vaughan
Detached sales are lower by 51.8% and listings have increased by 121%. The average price of $1.273 million fell 4.5% last month.

Mississauga
A surprise here – sales are lower by 39% and listings have swollen by 104% compared with last year, but the average price of $1.113 million was up 4% in July.

Brampton
No such luck in this massive community to the north. Sales were off 49% in July while there are 136% more houses for sale. The average price of $750,856 dropped 6.3% in 30 days.

Milton
Sales crashed 54.4% while the number of available homes is up 88% from last year. The average price of $875,123 took a nosedive in July, down a stunning 9.4%.

Ajax
To the east of the 416 Holy Land sales last month fell 44.5% and there are an unbelievable 229.6% more houses being flogged. The average price fell 9.8% last month alone, from over $752,000 to under $680,000.

Toronto
In the urban area, the market is not immune. Detached sales were lower last month by 41.7% and listings increased 96%. But the average price bounced 8%, from $1.202 million to $1.3 million.

Toronto condos
There were 28% fewer deals last month, and listings have declined a substantial 18%. But prices appear to have peaked and started to descend – down 3.7% in July.

Meanwhile in what is arguably the most expensive neighbourhood in Canada – the Westside of Vancouver – agent Stuart Bonner reports this: “Detached home sales were down 31% in July to 74 from 108 in July 2016. Of those sales, 18 received the asking price or more and 56 sold below the asking price. July 2017 supply increased 24% to 731 homes from 588 in July 2016.”

Comments area resident and blog dog Linda: “Looks pretty shitty.  Almost 10 months of inventory… I think it’s shocking that anything’s selling at all, but 74 sales is pretty much nothing compared with total inventory of 731.   Noting that 731 is the highest inventory of any month in the last two years.

Of course there’s more to worry about. It appears a second Bank of Canada rate hike (maybe even two) is looming over the next few months. The latest job stats show recent gains have held and we now have the lowest unemployment level since the autumn of 2008 – when this pathetic blog was still crawling around in Huggies still looking cute. It’s all the confirmation the bankers need to carry on ‘normalizing’ rates which inflated the mama of all housing gasbags. And, as far as we know, banks are still getting ready to stress test every single borrower later this year at the going rate plus 2%. Combine all this with plunging appraisal values and as realtor John Pasalis said this week, “there’s no good news here.”

Okay, so it sucks to be a seller. And it’s too early to joyously vultch.

But the real question is, what are they saying about this blog in Germany? Porsche salesguy Johnny just sent me this newspaper article. I note it calls me an “Investmentberater.” Jeez. Sounds bad.

Preise stürzen 40 Prozent ab: Platzt die nächste Immobilienblase in Kanada?

dpa/Peer Grimm (Archiv) In Toronto platzt die Immobilienblase: Im Juli fielen die Verkäufe von Wohnobjekten in der Metropolregion verglichen mit dem Vorjahreszeitraum um 40 Prozent

Während die USA noch immer unter den Folgen des Häusermarkt-Kollapses von 2007 leiden, ging der Immobilien-Boom in Kanada in den letzten zehn Jahren munter weiter. Nun könnte eine teure Quittung kommen.

Vor zehn Jahren begann die Kreditpyramide, auf der der US-Immobilienmarkt stand, wie ein Kartenhaus in sich zusammenzufallen. Der Crash stürzte die Weltwirtschaft in die tiefste Krise seit der großen Depression der 1930er Jahre. Um den völligen Kollaps des Finanzsystems zu verhindern, wurden Banken mit Hunderten Milliarden an Steuergeld gerettet. Während sich der US-Markt nach dem Schock deutlich abkühlte, stiegen die Häuserpreise im Nachbarland Kanada einfach weiter. Nun droht auch hier eine hohe Rechnung.

In der boomenden Großstadt Toronto platzt die Immobilienblase gerade. Im Juli fielen die Verkäufe von Wohnobjekten in der Metropolregion verglichen mit dem Vorjahreszeitraum um enorme 40 Prozent, wie Daten des lokalen Branchenverbands TREB zeigen. „Es handelt sich um einen der rasantesten Markteinbrüche der Geschichte – wann der Boden erreicht sein wird, ist noch nicht abzusehen“, warnt der kanadische Finanzexperte und Investmentberater Garth Turner.

„Käufer reagieren nicht einmal auf unsere Anwälte“
In seinem Blog beschreibt Turner den Niedergang lebhaft mit Beispielen aus Torontos Immobilienszene. „Der Mist nimmt kein Ende. Die Käufer reagieren nicht einmal auf unsere Anwälte“, klagt dort ein Hausbesitzer. Er hatte seine Immobilie für 2,25 Millionen kanadische Dollar verkauft, doch dann bekamen die Vertragspartner im allgemeinen Abwärtsstrudel kalte Füße. Das Objekt musste neu inseriert werden, der Wert schrumpfte innerhalb von drei Monaten um fast ein Viertel.

167 comments ↓

#1 Stan Broock on 08.04.17 at 5:30 pm

Die Deutschen haben harte Zeit, unsere Idiotie zu verstehen

#2 The Great Gazoo on 08.04.17 at 5:37 pm

Save some folks the trouble of going to Google translate

Prices plunge 40 percent: Will the next real estate bubble in Canada?

Dpa / Peer Grimm (Archive) The real estate bubble is bursting in Toronto: In July, sales of residential properties in the metropolitan area fell by 40 percent compared to the previous year

While the US is still suffering from the consequences of the 2007 home market collapse, the real estate boom in Canada has continued vigorously over the past ten years. Now an expensive receipt could come.

Ten years ago, the credit pyramid on which the US real estate market stood, collapsed like a card house. The crash crashed the global economy into the deepest crisis since the great depression of the 1930s. To prevent the complete collapse of the financial system, banks were saved with hundreds of billions in tax money. While the US market cooled significantly after the shock, housing prices in neighboring Canada simply continued to rise. Now, too, there is a great deal of risk.

In the booming city of Toronto, the real estate bubble is just bursting. In July, sales of residential properties in the metropolitan area fell by an enormous 40 percent, as data from the local industry association TREB show. “It is one of the fastest market breaks in history – when the ground will be reached, is not yet foreseen,” warns the Canadian financial expert and investment consultant Garth Turner.

“Buyers do not even react to our lawyers”
In his blog, Turner describes the decline vividly with examples from Toronto’s real estate scene. “The crap never ends. The buyers do not even react to our lawyers, “complains a house owner. He had sold his property for 2.25 million Canadian dollars, but then the contracting parties generally got downstrokes cold feet. The object had to be re-inserted, the value shrank by almost a quarter within three months.

#3 Ian on 08.04.17 at 5:38 pm

Who is in for a blog dog meeting at Belfountain General Store at noon Saturday?!

Even Mark is invited to tell us how much deflation there is!

Happy Aluminum Siding Day!

Happy Empty Open House Civic Weekend!!!!

#4 Mike on 08.04.17 at 5:38 pm

.
Wont be long. CHMC analyst for Toronto says this is just a blip.

I thought CHMC was in favor of cooling, but looks like their analysts have vested interests as well.

Oh, well – rich Canadians.

Soon they will be paying again whatever their realtor says, and you know what realtors say – ‘This is the best moment to buy, best, never again. Offer now!!’.

#5 R on 08.04.17 at 5:39 pm

Toronto is coming back baby

#6 Mike in Cowtown on 08.04.17 at 5:39 pm

Google translate spit out this approximation:

Prices plunge 40 percent: Will the next real estate bubble in Canada?

Dpa / Peer Grimm (Archive) The real estate bubble is bursting in Toronto: In July, sales of residential properties in the metropolitan area fell by 40 percent compared with the previous year

While the US is still suffering from the consequences of the 2007 home market collapse, the real estate boom in Canada has continued vigorously over the past ten years. Now an expensive receipt could come.

Ten years ago, the credit pyramid on which the US real estate market stood, collapsed like a card house. The crash crashed the global economy into the deepest crisis since the great depression of the 1930s. To prevent the complete collapse of the financial system, banks were saved with hundreds of billions in tax money. While the US market cooled significantly after the shock, housing prices in neighboring Canada simply continued to rise. Now, too, there is a great deal of risk.

In the booming city of Toronto, the real estate bubble is just bursting. In July, sales of residential properties in the metropolitan area fell by an enormous 40 percent, as data from the local industry association TREB show. “It is one of the fastest market breaks in history – when the ground will be reached, is not yet clear,” warns the Canadian financial expert and investment consultant Garth Turner.

“Buyers do not even react to our lawyers”
In his blog, Turner describes the decline vividly with examples from Toronto’s real estate scene. “The crap never ends. The buyers do not even react to our lawyers, “complains a house owner. He had sold his property for 2.25 million Canadian dollars, but then the contracting parties generally got downstrokes cold feet. The object had to be re-inserted, the value shrank by almost a quarter within three months.

#7 Smoking Man on 08.04.17 at 5:40 pm

For anyone that don’t have google translate

Prices plunge 40 percent: Will the next real estate bubble in Canada?
Dpa / Peer Grimm (Archive) The real estate bubble is bursting in Toronto: In July, sales of residential properties in the metropolitan area fell by 40 percent compared with the previous year

While the US is still suffering from the consequences of the 2007 home market collapse, the real estate boom in Canada has continued vigorously over the past ten years. Now an expensive receipt could come.

Ten years ago, the credit pyramid on which the US real estate market stood, collapsed like a card house. The crash crashed the global economy into the deepest crisis since the great depression of the 1930s. To prevent the complete collapse of the financial system, banks were saved with hundreds of billions in tax money. While the US market cooled significantly after the shock, housing prices in neighboring Canada simply continued to rise. Now, too, there is a great deal of risk.

In the booming city of Toronto, the real estate bubble is just bursting. In July, sales of residential properties in the metropolitan area fell by an enormous 40 percent, as data from the local industry association TREB show. “It is one of the fastest market breaks in history – when the ground will be reached, is not yet clear,” warns the Canadian financial expert and investment consultant Garth Turner.

“Buyers do not even react to our lawyers”
In his blog, Turner describes the decline vividly with examples from Toronto’s real estate scene. “The crap never ends. The buyers do not even react to our lawyers, “complains a house owner. He had sold his property for 2.25 million Canadian dollars, but then the contracting parties generally got downstrokes cold feet. The object had to be re-inserted, the value shrank by almost a quarter within three months.

#8 first on 08.04.17 at 5:43 pm

First!

#9 Doce Vita on 08.04.17 at 5:47 pm

OK Grandpa’s, we all know how to use Google Translate, OK.

Now, drink your milk, put your typewriter away and go back to bed.

#10 LJ on 08.04.17 at 5:50 pm

Enough with the poor same “google translate” versions. The english is horrible:

“The object had to be re-inserted…”

Positively daft!!!

Get an editor.

#11 Germans don't vulch on 08.04.17 at 5:55 pm

When something comes crashing down this hard, it becomes unattractive for Germans. Don’t expect German investors to knock on realtor doors and asking for a bargain.

Germans believe in concrete builds like they believe in gold. The Canadian RE market is interesting only when land deals are attractively priced.

Maybe Chinese or Indo investors pick up beaver barf boxes SFH on stamp sized lots or pie in the sky condo dreams to park money. I guess that could be described as “investing”.

Anyway, there are better markets to buy affordable land or buy concrete multiplexes in sophisticated jurisdictions that still have attractive rental yields.

The ride up was phenomenal but the crash will wipe out huge amounts of equity and destroy retirement plans.

Canada has made it’s bed and now has to lay in it.

#12 nick on 08.04.17 at 5:56 pm

July 2016 $710,471 to August 2016 $710,410

Essentially flat. Average price in GTA is up 5% YOY

if average price drops another 6% this month, the YOY gain will be wiped out.

#13 Raging Ranter on 08.04.17 at 5:58 pm

@#2 The Great Gazoo, thanks for the translation. But I’m curious, what object had to be re-inserted? :)

Of course, it is referring to the house being relisted. I’m just having some fun with the rather unfortunate wording. Good Translate was doing pretty well until that sentence.

#14 rainclouds on 08.04.17 at 5:59 pm

Nowhere in that germanic dissertation did I see the words Vancouver or kaput.

Fake news ……..

#15 young & foolish on 08.04.17 at 6:00 pm

Please … stop with the translations!

#16 Travis Bickle on 08.04.17 at 6:01 pm

“Der Mist nimmt kein Ende.”

This quote alone is worth the price of admission… I admit I missed the post in which GT said it, but it may be a true depiction of the next few years for realtors and real-estate speculators in Canada ;-)

Expect lots of second-hand luxury cars hitting the market soon – great opportunity to get used Audi, Mercedes, Lexus, Infiniti, BMW, etc… for a dirt cheap prices.
My realtor neighbor (who thinks an oxymoron is a cattle breed – he really did say that) drives three different BMWs, each of them less than 2 years old. Despite him being a bit “slow” I really like the guy, he is a true people-person, and will be sorry to see him struggle and change his lavish lifestyle when hit with upcoming hard times :-(
He doesn’t have education and cannot find a professional job, and I don’t think he could do construction jobs or bartending or such, nor can I picture him driving 5-year old Camry or something like that. Harsh reality is that he’ll likely be selling mattresses or floor tiles in the next few years – not that anything is wrong with that…

#17 Raging Ranter on 08.04.17 at 6:01 pm

On second thought, “the object had to be reinserted” might have been a literal description of what it felt like to realize his buyers had disappeared on him.

#18 Dolce Vita on 08.04.17 at 6:03 pm

# 10 LJ

If you think Google Translate is bad with German to English, you should see the giant dung show it creates with Italian to English.

Actually, here is a short translation of German to English from the post today:

Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

#19 young & foolish on 08.04.17 at 6:03 pm

Do you need more evidence that momentum investing works? Start counting how many blog dogs jump on the “Oh, I will translate it for everyone” band wagon!

#20 crdt on 08.04.17 at 6:04 pm

Here in Langley houses are still getting the SOLD stickers. The only thing I noticed lately was that a realtor usually sends out a mailer with his latest listing/result, usually with bold printing SOLD OVER ASKING, JUST SOLD FOR $$$, kind of miss the enthusiasm.

#21 Angry Migtow on 08.04.17 at 6:06 pm

Where is Mark to announce the 1929-33 deflationary depression coming to Canada along with a Loonie valued at $1,50 American dollars?

#22 crdt on 08.04.17 at 6:07 pm

Wonder if anyone in Germany gives a scheisse… Translate that ‘er google..

#23 Wrk.dover on 08.04.17 at 6:13 pm

Does “To prevent the complete collapse of the financial system, banks were saved with hundreds of billions in tax money.”, actually translate to “the banks were saved with trillions of Ponzi dollars rather than renting real money at fair market value.”, in German? Because that is what happened!

#24 Jimmy on 08.04.17 at 6:15 pm

Nice try #8

Das Objekt musste neu inseriert werden

Doesn’t say where.

#25 blobby on 08.04.17 at 6:17 pm

I cant believe that no-one has google translated this and posted it on the blog yet..

Sheesh, come on guys :D

#26 Shortymac on 08.04.17 at 6:20 pm

Even my own realtor told me too many people think it’s going back to the way it was super quick. Some people are just stubborn and won’t budge on the price.

Glad I didn’t vulch right away, next year will hopefully be okay.

#27 Bob Dog on 08.04.17 at 6:25 pm

Air quality advisory issued for Vancouver. Now we know exactly what it would be like to live in China.

Is this to be an annual pattern. 10 months of drenching rain followed by 2 months of lung clogging smog.

Gods I wish I stayed in the USA. This place is so not worth it.

#28 Fish on 08.04.17 at 6:29 pm

Thankyou for being so kind

#29 chopstix on 08.04.17 at 6:30 pm

remember greasy New Coast Realty and their shady sales’ practices, such that the Globe’s Kathy Tomlinson did scathing exposes on last yr? see this link,
amongst many (https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/inside-a-fast-growing-bc-firm-that-has-home-sellers-crying-foul/article29578417/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&)(only then did the greasy BC liberals do anything or acknowledge any nefarious stuff happening …

the investigation into shadow flipping is moving very slowly.
”Probe into New Coast Realty shadow flipping too slow, critics say”
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/probe-into-new-coast-realty-shadow-flipping-too-slow-critics-say/article35880142/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

#30 Quotable Quotes on 08.04.17 at 6:32 pm

“Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life.”
— Confucius

“Don’t judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds that you plant.”
— Robert Louis Stevenson

“On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
— Henry Louis Mencken

#31 Ret on 08.04.17 at 6:32 pm

“I note it calls me an “Investmentberater.” Jeez. Sounds bad.”

Well Garth, no body parts were involved according to the translations rendered by Blog Dogs, so my worst fears have been put to rest.

#32 Schadenfrau on 08.04.17 at 6:37 pm

It’s Merkel’s fault.

#33 Annek on 08.04.17 at 6:39 pm

#10 LJ
The translation is not so bad. It’s understandable.(its like reading Shakespeare!)

#34 Dolce Vita on 08.04.17 at 6:40 pm

September is the month you read Tweeted a lot by GTA Realtors, as in the collective hold your breath and hope for a turnaround month.

By the end of that month we will have had the June and July GDP Reports and the August Labour Force Survey in.

If GDP and Jobs hold steady, then an October rate hike is a certainty.

That ought to put a damper on any September GTA RE enthusiasm, if it happens at all.

And death by a thousand cuts YVR Average list price drops are more negative in August at:

-1.84%

with 2.6 : 1 list price drops vs. increases and that matches up nicely with what Stuart Bonner says about West Van selling prices (56 down, 18 up).

Then you look at Steve Saretsky’s Aug. 1 Twitter chart boasting about how Vancouver 1 Bedroom Condo inventory cannot keep up with sales, which acutally shows not much of an increase in sales y/y for July 2017 (YVR RE Cult, hard at work, so much for the “overheated condo market” there, the Cult sees what it wants to see):

https://www.google.it/search?biw=1518&bih=708&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=Vancouver+one+bedroom+condo+inventory+vs.+sales&oq=Vancouver+one+bedroom+condo+inventory+vs.+sales&gs_l=psy-ab.3…10659.14468.0.14719.20.20.0.0.0.0.85.1415.20.20.0….0…1.1.64.psy-ab..0.0.0.z6PwyALtyJc#imgrc=yjMrf66wV0kZtM:

#35 Vanagon on 08.04.17 at 6:40 pm

Westvan? That’s the only bad stats for van you could find? Your creating a false narrative about 604 to fit in your blog. Of course westvan is slow , houses they’re are Targeted by the ultra rich FB , sales have been slow ever since the tax was brought in , average detaches are in excess of 3 millions. How about everywhere else? Sales and prices are strong across the gvrd. Condos are nuclear.

Read your neighbour’s post. — Garth

#36 dogsRbetterThanKatz on 08.04.17 at 6:46 pm

“And, as far as we know, banks are still getting ready to stress test every single borrower later this year at the going rate plus 2%.”

Does anyone have any links to details on this? I have googled and not come up with the date that this will start. As a gf reader, people expect me to know these details.

#37 ANON on 08.04.17 at 6:48 pm

Well, at least they take you seriously in…Germany :)
Told ya no one is a prophet in his own country.

#38 Leo Trollstoy on 08.04.17 at 6:51 pm

#21 Angry Migtow on 08.04.17 at 6:06 pm
Where is Mark to announce the 1929-33 deflationary depression coming to Canada along with a Loonie valued at $1,50 American dollars?

I think he’s still looking for a job.

Only one of the few who find it difficult in tech and in Canada where job growth is booming

Speaks volumes

Lol

#39 And I Quote on 08.04.17 at 6:51 pm

“My Karma ran over your Dogma” Anonymous

Or/Oder

“Mein Karma lief über dein Dogma” Anonym

#40 Suede on 08.04.17 at 6:57 pm

condo and TH sales in Vancouver and immediate burbs are bananas right now.

Bidding wars everywhere. But it’s definitely fragile though.

There was a 1 person bidding war for an apartment 40% over asking.

For REALZ

And it was priced at market, not under!

I know because it was a family members place.

The poor new owner could’ve had it for 50k less just as easy.

#41 jim on 08.04.17 at 7:01 pm

“#35 Vanagon on 08.04.17 at 6:40 pm
“Sales and prices are strong across the gvrd. Condos are nuclear.”

Prices are ‘strong’ are they? I understand ‘high’ or ‘low’, but ‘strong’? I can even understand a ‘strong’ market to some extent, although it is sort of an abuse of terminology. (Strong wind, yes).

You seem to be wallowing in flowery language.

Have you ever considered that high prices are not good things for an economy? Houses are not productive. A society that pours so much resources into housing is a society that is likely starving itself of new business formation, R+D, etc etc.

Not to mention that the research shows that high housing prices impair labour mobility, which is rather more important for an economy than shiny (and poorly constructed) glass towers full of residential suites.

By all means get defensive about your shiny boxes in the sky. Some people are profiting from this malinvestment in housing (e.g., you). There is a reason that people in Vancouver talk incessantly about housing instead of career opportunities or entrepreneuring.

#42 jim on 08.04.17 at 7:05 pm

#38 Leo Trollstoy on 08.04.17 at 6:51 pm

“Only one of the few who find it difficult in tech and in Canada where job growth is booming”

Oh yes, service jobs and government jobs galore.

Tech? Don’t make me laugh. Canada has less far ‘tech’ than most US states. Vancouver can’t even compete with Austin, TX, let alone my current city (Seattle).

What’s the shining jewel of tech in vancouver exactly? The games industry is a shell of its former self, there’s no interesting software to speak of, and the campuses for the large US companies (e.g., MSFT) are holding pens for foreign workers waiting to get H1Bs. D-wave is pretty cool, but tiny. Montreal probably has more tech jobs these days, and it certainly took the games industry away from Vancouver.

#43 conan on 08.04.17 at 7:06 pm

Let the bells ring out and the banners fly!
Germany makes the blog.

https://youtu.be/Fcq91OGL8vM?list=PLZfCO_-hoElL_3TC0qj9ygXKgMsMnjU18&t=29

#44 GVRD avg home price on 08.04.17 at 7:09 pm

July 2017 average prices will come down around 35% back in line with 2015 pricing before things went hay wire.

Will take until fall 2018 to materialize but that’s where a temporary bottom can be found.

2-3 more rate hikes and then midterm elections in the US.

Liquidity drying up everywhere and most importantly in China where the crackdown on the outflows is going into Phase 2.

Toronto first, Vancouver second.

#45 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.04.17 at 7:11 pm

Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)
Happy Empty Open Houses Realtors!:-))
No Money for you. Remember even if you remotely make a sale, will it even close? All those “reported” sales means NOTHING! Those numbers can ONLY go down. Hey shyster realtors why don’t you revise sale numbers?

#46 SmokeCouver on 08.04.17 at 7:14 pm

I feel for this developer:
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3129-e-54th-avenue

Built brand new house, been trying to sell for over a year now. Price drops not helping. LOL!

#47 How many fingers Winston? on 08.04.17 at 7:15 pm

#36 dogsRbetterThanKatz on 08.04.17 at 6:46 pm
“And, as far as we know, banks are still getting ready to stress test every single borrower later this year at the going rate plus 2%.”

Does anyone have any links to details on this? I have googled and not come up with the date that this will start. As a gf reader, people expect me to know these details.

this is just the politicians and banks reminding anyone still listening, of just how big and powerful they are.

the only thing is – no bank or politician has been able to demonstrate that non cmhc borrowers are a problem.
That’s because non cmhc borrowers are not a problem.
Historically banks called these people ‘qualified’, and they created cmhc for everyone else who wasn’t qualified. Because: money=you qualify, ie if you have all cash, you obviously don’t need a bank
but they just repeat repeat repeat until you believe that ‘ every single borrower ‘ is a problem

are these borrowers missing payments? no

if they do, do lenders have recourse to re-possess property under power of sale? yes

in other words: 100% red herring from banks and politicians directly to you

#48 Quote of the day on 08.04.17 at 7:17 pm

“I almost had to hold my therapy puppy while reading this article.”

User comment @ Zerohedge.

#49 TortyPapa on 08.04.17 at 7:18 pm

#35 Vanagon

I’m not sure what you expect the condo market to go but there will be a breaking point one day (it cannot keep rising in this fashion). What happens when a condo is equivalent to a detached? Everything in the condo market is driven by local buyers/speculators. Watch Steve Saretsky’s recent YouTube video. He said people are buying each other’s contracts on new builds multiple times over. It’s ridiculous.

#50 Vanagon on 08.04.17 at 7:18 pm

#35 Vanagon on 08.04.17 at 6:40 pm
Westvan? That’s the only bad stats for van you could find? Your creating a false narrative about 604 to fit in your blog. Of course westvan is slow , houses they’re are Targeted by the ultra rich FB , sales have been slow ever since the tax was brought in , average detaches are in excess of 3 millions. How about everywhere else? Sales and prices are strong across the gvrd. Condos are nuclear.

Read your neighbour’s post. — Garth

Read what? price drop stats? What’s the sales price y/y? For condos ? For detach? That’s not a correction and that’s not Toronto. Your talking as if people are out snagging deals here. Everything is expensive as it ever was or more so in the sub 2 million price range. There is a long way Togo before any celebrating happens and as far as this blog is concerned you’ll have many years to make repetitive posts about a coming Vancouver correction.

#51 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 08.04.17 at 7:22 pm

#27 Bob Dog on 08.04.17 at 6:25 pm
Air quality advisory issued for Vancouver. Now we know exactly what it would be like to live in China.

Is this to be an annual pattern. 10 months of drenching rain followed by 2 months of lung clogging smog.

Gods I wish I stayed in the USA. This place is so not worth it.
……………………………..
You should see what it’s like in the Okanagan and Kamloops. People are wearing surgical masks like they do in Bejing.

#52 Kreditpyramide on 08.04.17 at 7:22 pm

Deutsche ist lustig.

#53 Some stranger's hand in a desperate land on 08.04.17 at 7:26 pm

As the housing market unravels will the banks lighten up on the stress tests? Rising interest rates should be enough to pullback the market? Do we need to add gas?

#54 Richard on 08.04.17 at 7:28 pm

Investmentberater…I like that. Your new title?

#55 Looney Baloney on 08.04.17 at 7:30 pm

Way to Mr. G, you know all your rants on this blog weren’t completely in vain when the Germans take you seriously!

The last paragraph from that snippet spitted out of Google translate revealed an interesting crack:

“He had sold his property for 2.25 million Canadian dollars, but then the contracting parties generally got downstrokes cold feet. The object had to be re-inserted, the value shrank by almost a quarter within three months.”

I hope they simply meant the house was relisted, not something Derek had personally done to the ‘contracting parties’.

#56 more coverage on German news on 08.04.17 at 7:32 pm

Welt/N24 is a leading news outlet in German speaking world

https://www.welt.de/finanzen/immobilien/article167382048/In-diesem-Land-platzt-die-naechste-Immobilienblase.html

“the next real estate bubble is bursting in this country”

Then a lengthy article about Toronto crashing. In the end they mention HCG as canary in the coal mine and that there is now a distinct possibility that Canadian banks might be affected after all.

#57 Quote of the day on 08.04.17 at 7:38 pm

German push for home ownership drives price bubble fears

https://www.ft.com/content/dc6ad2e4-c6ac-11e6-9043-7e34c07b46ef

#58 People watching people on 08.04.17 at 7:40 pm

New month, new interest in my rental. 3 appointments made to view the condo (brings the 4 week total to about 19), my camera only picked up 1 viewing. The other 2 decided not to show up (that makes 3 no shows and 2 cancellations in the last 2 weeks).

The lone gentleman caller today was older, probably late 50s to early 60s. Thin watch. Appeared to be of European ancestry. If there is HAM out there, none have taken an interest in this place.

I’m also monitoring rentals, as I will have to move out at some point. Some identical units above me are for rent. Same 13 year old carpet and appliances. All have over 20 days on market and 2 have dropped their ask 15%. Anyone saying there is a shortage of rentals is blowing sunshine, at least in my segment of the market (1200+sqft). I’m stalking a nice 2 story penthouse unit that has been on the market over a month with no takers.

Here’s something interesting to bounce around your mind palace, if real estate does not bounce back in September, will TREB, CMHC et al. lose their credibility and lead to the psychological catalyst that creates the disorderly collapse of the real estate market? They have put all their faith into a seemingly arbitrary date…

#59 For those about to flop... on 08.04.17 at 7:51 pm

Comments area resident and blog dog Linda: “Looks pretty shitty. Almost 10 months of inventory… I think it’s shocking that anything’s selling at all, but 74 sales is pretty much nothing compared with total inventory of 731. Noting that 731 is the highest inventory of any month in the last two years-Garth

///////////////////////

I’ve been going about it all wrong.

First I wasted time showing the Pink Snow.

Then I wasted time showing the Pink Pollen.

And recently I have been wasting time showing the Pink Lemonade.

When all I has to write to get some page one coverage was…

Looks pretty shitty…

M43BC

#60 habbit on 08.04.17 at 8:07 pm

Hi Garth. FYI the socialists in power here in the far west lol are west of the Saskatchewan border bud. Saskatchewan is currently governed by the Sask party as you know. A free enterprise party no? You folks in Ontario could perhaps follow eh. Quit picking on Saskatchewan eh Sir.

#61 Quote of the day on 08.04.17 at 8:13 pm

“The object had to be re-inserted, the value shrank by almost a quarter within three months.”

It must be a secret message that Merkel can’t handle the wave of refugees she invited and the EU needs to “re-insert” some of them to EU-member countries which have been resisting the voluntary humanitarian insertation.

#62 Mark on 08.04.17 at 8:27 pm

“Tech? Don’t make me laugh.”

Troll has been most thoroughly discredited in his claims that there’s been a lot of tech job growth in Canada. Not sure why he’s fixated on the subject. Canada *used* to have a vibrant and growing tech industry, but gross mismanagement destroyed crown jewels such as Corel, Nortel, and BlackBerry. The ecosystem hasn’t come anywhere recovery since, and there are still large numbers of extraordinarily talented IT professionals displaced through the failure (or near-failure) of those businesses.

Most of what you read in the media is just industry-side propaganda intended to foment public support for more TFW’s to support the operations of some of those US companies who want to set up “bullpens” in Canada in response to tougher US immigration laws. Canada, like the USA, should “just say no”.

#63 Ben on 08.04.17 at 8:29 pm

#36 dogsRbetterThanKatz

Final sentence in the ‘Debt Service Coverage’ section:

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/fi-if/rg-ro/gdn-ort/gl-ld/Pages/b20_dft.aspx#fnb12

Still a draft proposal, but I’d be shocked to see a draft proposal not survive under a majority government.

#64 Old Ron the Realtor on 08.04.17 at 8:30 pm

In Toronto markets heat up from the centre and cool down from the edges. So I am not surprised that the Burbs are getting hit hardest.

This is no market for old men, but I figure if I am good enough I can outsmart a trout on the Gallatin River which is about a three day haul from here. I know a spot about 60 miles south of Bozeman.

God willin, I’ll be back in back in September on the best and funnest real estate blog in the big smoke. Keep it up Bard of Belfountain.

#65 Dan.t on 08.04.17 at 8:31 pm

#1 Stan Broock
Haha, das stimmt! Die sind alle verrückt! Total Krank! Alles was zählt in Kanada sind immobilen. Traurig. Hope my German is ok. For those who can’t understand it…

“Yes, Canadians are friggen Crazy when it comes to RE. It is total sick…actually a Canadian real estate sickness. All that matters to Canadians is real estate. Sad. Really!”

Brainwashed the last 14 years by CBC and local media into believing that with virtually zero wage increases in 30 years, the way to prosperity is to borrow as much as possible, and sell your kidney

and your left nut if need be, con bank of mom into forking over 80k, just to get enough to buy a 1.4 mil POS house with 5% down, so you can do nothing and earn 100+k a year in appreciation…what u mean that is not normal?

Because, no mortgage, no future in Canada…everyone recites the same friggen message! “It’s real estate, it never goes down”. “Everyone want to live here”, “interest rates?, oh, only 0.25%, people will still pay their mortgage”, “Government will never raise interest rates”, “It’s different this time”, “this house is my retirement”, etc……you want to know how many times I heard it’s different this time while I was visiting YVR?

I guess we will see if it is “different this time”.

those are the tried tested and true reasons I have heard to justify 1 mil houses in Abby, 1.2 mil in Langley, 650k+ condos in Burnaby and 500-600k homes in Hope (that is a city of 8,000 people 2hr from YVR- with zero industry or future prospects, don’t ever get me started on Merrit).

Whatever, I guess time will tell if BC is different from GTA or the rest of the world. Maybe local incomes really don’t matter, maybe record low interest rates didn’t matter, maybe banks giving out free money for 12 years wasn’t a factor, maybe BC really is affordable and everyone there has tons of cash. Time will tell.

Maybe prices will just keep going up and up and up.

#66 Sierts on 08.04.17 at 8:42 pm

the german verb “inserieren” would be best translated as “advertising”.
as in being inserted into the classified section of a newspaper.

#67 acdel on 08.04.17 at 8:49 pm

An opinion of a french guest who was invited to dinner among others whom like to discuss world events and politics; he stated:

“Yes, stock prices keep going up… here in France, too,” said a wise man who came over for dinner last night.

“But I have a feeling it’s the same situation. You have Trump. We have Macron. Everybody’s looking for the situation to change. But it never does. Too many people like it the way it is.

“They’re the ones who get something from it. But our governments are spending too much money. Eventually, they’ll go broke and drag us down with them.”

#68 Asterix1 on 08.04.17 at 8:55 pm

blog pal Hanny Elsaed,

Toronto
In the urban area, the market is not immune. Detached sales were lower last month by 41.7% and listings increased 96%. But the average price bounced 8%, from $1.202 million to $1.3 million.
____________________________________________

TREB numbers are showing a decline from June to July in Toronto for detached.

June = 1,386,524
July = 1,304,288
Total = -5.93% drop in a month

Big difference between a Hanny Elsaed, 8% jump and a TREB -5.93%.

#69 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.04.17 at 9:00 pm

Many will go bankrupt in this monster housing crash that will be epic with values crashing 75%. People thought prices would never hit a million on the way up will ne saying wow I can’t believe how low they went. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/greenspan-bond-bubble-about-to-break-because-of-abnormally-low-interest-rates.html

Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#70 bsallergy on 08.04.17 at 9:07 pm

Die blase platzt

#71 FortDB on 08.04.17 at 9:09 pm

I believe the number for Toronto detached is up 8 yoy but down 5.9 june to july

#72 Fish on 08.04.17 at 9:11 pm

Ok, t2 wearing a kilt, nice, not mine,

#73 Nonplused on 08.04.17 at 9:12 pm

“The object had to be re-inserted…”

Probably the most accurate translation ever, they just didn’t say what and where. I bet you can guess though through your deep understanding of context.

#74 Nonplused on 08.04.17 at 9:21 pm

#27 Bob Dog

It’s all those emissions cheating VW diesels that are doing it.

(For those that don’t get sarcasm, the VW and other emissions witch hunts are a total scam by the government, they can’t even control what their own crown owned forest do. A VW that passes under specified test conditions should pass, and all the VW diesels in the world aren’t doing what the Verdant Creek fire is doing to air quality. I saw the plume. It is truly amazing. Governments are stupid. They only know force where force can be applied, they know nothing about practicality.)

#75 Glücklich Gilmore on 08.04.17 at 9:27 pm

“Glückliches Gehäuse Crash alle, ALLE.”

#76 Slim on 08.04.17 at 9:30 pm

Was talking to someone in Vancouver last week. Person was totally convinced that Mainland Chinese are taking over Richmond. How do you know this, I asked. Well, for one thing look at all the Chinese writing on the billboards and signs. It really is different in Vancouver.

#77 WUL on 08.04.17 at 9:34 pm

The German article failed to mention my favourite motorcycle which was common in Fort McMurray. Also a favoured high calibre hunting rifle I used to carry.

The Eargeschplittenloudenboomer.

#78 The Greater Cauliflower on 08.04.17 at 9:35 pm

Ich bin ein Berliner

#79 Ace Goodheart on 08.04.17 at 9:36 pm

Und jezt fast unglaublich. Was gibt es damal zu tun?

Die Deutschen sind mit Garth Turner fasciniert. Jetz kommes alles zu ende

#80 Nonplused on 08.04.17 at 9:36 pm

DELETED

#81 Nortel boy on 08.04.17 at 9:42 pm

@62

Just imagine where tech in Canada would be if Harper had bailed out Nortel like he did GM. I laugh shsn people talk about the effect of BB/RIM while their earnings were a fraction of Nortel’s R&D budget. And the patents lost. Oh wait, they bought a boat load from Nortel during its bancruptcy. Want someone to blame? Loom at our government.

#82 Leo Trollstoy on 08.04.17 at 9:42 pm

I wonder what high paying job is easier to get than one in tech?

Of course we’re only talking about competent candidates. Crap candidates can’t find a job despite the job boom

#83 Lee on 08.04.17 at 9:43 pm

“The move up real estate market has croaked.”

What, all of a sudden people with money have left TO?

#84 For those about to flop... on 08.04.17 at 10:00 pm

Another American centred article from howmuch,but someone on here will get something out of it…

M43BC

“This Map Shows How Your Energy Source is Driving Your Electricity Bill
Most of us become aware of our electricity costs during the summer when the weather is hot and our air conditioners are on full blast. In fact, the bulk of most American homes electricity costs come from central air conditioning and electrical heating pumps. The average cost to use central air or an electrical heating pump is nearly 4-times as high as the second least efficient product, which is your clothes dryer. Obviously, the cost of electricity plays a large role in calculating your electric bills, and the states with the most expensive electricity costs use natural gas or nuclear to generate their electricity. The highest average electricity bill by State is nearly double the least expensive, and it’s all because of the source used to generate electricity.”

Most Expensive States and Electricity Source

Alabama – Average Monthly Bill = $146 – Source: Natural Gas
South Carolina – Average Monthly Bill = $143 – Source: Nuclear
Connecticut – Average Monthly Bill = $142 – Source: Natural Gas
Maryland – Average Monthly Bill = $141 – Source: Nuclear
Hawaii – Average Monthly Bill = $139 – Source: Petroleum Liquids

Least Expensive States and Electricity Source

New Mexico – Average Monthly Bill = $76 – Source: Coal
Utah – Average Monthly Bill = $83 – Source: Coal
Colorado – Average Monthly Bill = $84 – Source: Coal
Maine – Average Monthly Bill = $86 – Source: Other Renewables
Montana – Average Monthly Bill = $89 – Source: Coal

https://howmuch.net/articles/electric-bill-cost-by-state

#85 bigtowne on 08.04.17 at 10:04 pm

Parents believe kids need to learn “coding”…the same kids who cannot tackle the Hardy Boys or Nancy Drew.

#86 ManyYs on 08.04.17 at 10:07 pm

From the same data source that Garth used: Oshawa listings up 277.1% YoY

277 %!!! What’s wrong over there? Everyone all of a sudden is selling?

#87 Nonplused on 08.04.17 at 10:08 pm

#80 Nonplused

Why did you delete that Garth? I take exception with that, I said nothing inflammatory against anyone respecting the law. Illegal activity is illegal activity. These issues need to be discussed and they are important. Why should you or I be held accountable to the law if others are not?

If I make a criticism of people speeding or smoking pot where it is not legalized are you going to delete that too? Maybe I’ll criticize murderers and you’ll delete that because it isn’t sensitive to the families of the murderer.

Come on man get a grip. Legal immigration is fine, because it’s legal. Illegal immigration must be stopped because it’s illegal. Don’t like the laws? Run for office again and change them.

This space is my gift to you and others. Do not abuse it by venting against immigrants. — Garth

#88 paracho on 08.04.17 at 10:23 pm

The Toronto detached house values seem to be an anamoly . It might be true, but I do not see how they are up 8% in value since June .

#89 SpeedWeasel on 08.04.17 at 10:26 pm

I don’t need Google Translate, thanks: I can read German.

Interestingly, house prices in Germany are very stable because renting does not carry a social stigma. If one purchases a house it is for life (more of a ‘family homestead’; a place to grow old in.). Not for flipping.

Moreover, any place you’d actually want to live in (i.e. big enough to have a career) is so dense that there are few houses around anyways. Everyone lives in an apartment.

And what apartments! I fondly remember the ‘hardship’ I had to endure of living in an apartment with a view of a castle; a wine store on the corner; and the Rhine only a block away. Whereas back here in Ottawa I proudly own my own home and have the privilege of driving through a suburban wasteland for every minor purchase.

(P.S.: Leafs Suck!)

#90 conan on 08.04.17 at 10:39 pm

#81 Nortel boy on 08.04.17 at 9:42 pm

Nortel turned into the Titanic. Yet their IP sold for a billion plus. Something not right there.

https://youtu.be/VXa9tXcMhXQ?t=42

#91 DON on 08.04.17 at 10:42 pm

Some posters who are young and foolish believe that prices in the event of a long downturn will not go back to pre 2010 levels. Even when blog dog Old Ron the Realtor offers this piece of advice – ‘Your house is only worth what the buyer offers’ Now as Garth as stated many many many times wages have not kept up with house prices. If the context changes (as it always does) and housing sentiment goes down it will become sexy to do the opposite. To ignore this must be blissful T2 thinking!

Opposite and equal reaction.

Math is hard, logic is hard and so is the application of cognitive dissonance. Need to consider all realistic variables.

Rant over! Taking the dog for a run now.

#92 i.see.debt.people on 08.04.17 at 10:58 pm

#46

What’s with all the 8s in the price drops? that ship has sailed. hahahha

#93 Tracy on 08.04.17 at 11:17 pm

All those headlines about sales being down, yet Mississauga and Toronto prices are up.

Looks like 1.1 to 1.2 million is what people are willing to pay. Everything above corrected down. Everything below moved up.

Why do I feel like people will jump in as soon as we dip a little more? People want houses so badly. Can’t care less for saving.

#94 For those about to flop... on 08.04.17 at 11:22 pm

This one could have gone either way ,but hopefully someone will tell me…

M43BC

7875 162B ST SURREY paid 880 ass 879 asking 880 sold on July 2nd

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/7875-162b-street

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA3N1JXVQ==

#95 InvestorsFriend on 08.04.17 at 11:32 pm

Nortel?

#90 conan on 08.04.17 at 10:39 pm said:

Nortel turned into the Titanic. Yet their IP sold for a billion plus. Something not right there.

********************************************
What was not right was idiotic management. I don’t know how John Roth escaped much if any blame. They paid MANY billions in acquisitions that turned out next to worthless. Most of the value was in the people and they later had to fire most of the people they “acquired”.

You can have assets worth $10 billion and still be bankrupt if your liabilities exceed the assets.

It was criminally stupid of Nortel not to issue enough shares during the bubble years to pay off all debt and get cash in the bank.

It is very difficult to go broke if you have no debt.

Nortel investors were willfully blind. The company was reporting GAAP losses in the late 90’s and circa 2000 while touting huge profits on a pro-forma ex-items basis. The financial press played along. The losses were there in plain sight.

Kevin O’Leary by the way was early in calling Nortel a zero. He used to argue on ROBtv (now BNN) with Brian Tobin who thought Nortel would rise again.

#96 Cici on 08.04.17 at 11:39 pm

Well done Garth, you’re conquering Europe!

Parts of that Google-translated text are downright hilarious but also horrendous…especially near the end (“got downstrokes cold feet” and “the object had to be re-inserted”). Wonder how many people were left scratching their heads wondering what that really meant. Talk about lost in translation!

#97 LH on 08.04.17 at 11:54 pm

Finanzexperte… very nice

The centre will hold
Still very little SFH inventory in C01, C02

#98 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 08.05.17 at 12:06 am

High-end stainless appliances, kitchen tools and granite counter-tops inside your $750K Milton dream home you can:

Eine halbe Tasse Staubzucker
Ein Viertel Teeloffel Salz
Eine Messerspitze turkisches Haschisch
Ein halbes Pfund Butter
Ein Teeloffel Vanillenzucker
Ein halbes Pfund Mehl
Einhundertfunfzig Gramm gemahlene Nusse
Ein wenig extra Staubzucker
… und keine Eier

In eine Schussel geben
Butter einruhren
Gemahlene Nusse zugeben und
Den Teig verkneten

Augenballgro?e Stucke vom Teig formen
Im Staubzucker walzen und
Sagt die Zauberworter:
Simsalbimbamba Saladu Saladim

Auf ein gefettetes Backblech legen und
Bei zweihundert Grad fur funfzehn Minuten backen und
KEINE EIER!

Bei zweihundert Grad fur funfzehn Minuten backen und
Keine Eier.

Do overextended moisters even know their way around a kitchen? Nah, TAKE OUT!

#99 Nonplused on 08.05.17 at 12:32 am

This space is my gift to you and others. Do not abuse it by venting against immigrants. — Garth

I did not vent against legal immigrants and if you look back at all my comments I never do. My parents and grandparents were legal immigrants. If I vented it was against “illegal immigrants”. And yes I have a problem with them. They can fill out the paperwork and comply by the rules as each of us has to do in so many areas.

If I was venting, perhaps, it was against “illegal immigrants”. Not “legal immigrants”. They are two different groups of people. My grandparents came to this country, bringing my parents with them, following the rules, filled out the paperwork, became citizens, started paying taxes immediately, and never got any assistance. They didn’t sneak in and demand welfare. It’s totally different than what is going on in Europe.

When my grandparents came to Canada the crown wanted more people to develop this vast land. That’s what my grandparents and parents came and helped to do. And that is what immigration should be about. Legal immigration still is and I am in favor of that. When the word “illegal” goes in front though, something is probably wrong.

So, to be clear, I am in favor of legal immigrants. I am not in favor of illegal immigrants.

Don’t be too PC Garth or there are certain important conversations you won’t be able to talk about for fear of which words you use.

And I realize words get politicized, but we must fight it. An example Doug Casey raised today is “pro-life” versus “pro-choice”. His point was who is “anti-life” or “anti-choice”. But we all know the issue he is talking about and how the movements have co-opted words. Without words we cannot communicate, and distorting words distorts the conversation.

Illegal still means illegal.

#100 OttawaMike on 08.05.17 at 12:35 am

The Blog Dogs here are like Germans but without the same sense of humour.

#101 Russ on 08.05.17 at 12:38 am

Bob Dog on 08.04.17 at 6:25 pm

Air quality advisory issued for Vancouver. Now we know exactly what it would be like to live in China.

Is this to be an annual pattern. 10 months of drenching rain followed by 2 months of lung clogging smog.

Gods I wish I stayed in the USA. This place is so not worth it.
========================

Hi Bob,

We all wish for the same as you.

This weather pattern is there to keep a bit o’ smoke outta Alberta. Let’s all do our part unselfishly eh.

They suffered enough last year.

#102 Smoking Man on 08.05.17 at 12:44 am

When you’re a drunk idiot
That’s the moment when your mind says fk relaity

Let’s go with logic.

T2 sucks bad.

#103 Russ on 08.05.17 at 12:46 am

Here’s an interesting excerpt from our local rag, B & B section:

“BOUQUET – Thanks to Will, Amy and Nicole. With unexpected debts. I was sick with worry. I went to Easy Financial and they were willing to help me with a loan. I am old and not an owner of home. It costs you, but to me it is worth every penny not to have the problem. ”

It might cost you, the taxpayer, to make this old person fell better. But it’s worth it in their mind.

Nice

#104 Rob Kowalski on 08.05.17 at 1:16 am

Congrats on the German article Garth!
After you finish bringing Canada real estate back to earth The world is yours!

Rob

#105 Alex k on 08.05.17 at 1:30 am

#89 SpeadWeasel
Has Ottawa ever won a cup? And never will-
But keep dreaming , BTW Ottawa a crime infested dump

#106 NoName on 08.05.17 at 2:14 am

Eargeschplittenloudenboomer is necked down 30-378 wby mag to 22 cal.

Parent/Reference cartridge and rifle
30-378 wby mag
2.9 inch case
120 grs max capacity
110 grs loaded
165 grs projectile
3500 ft/sec muzzle velocity
4488 ft-lb muzzle energy
1973 24 inch wby mark v deluxe (made in Germany)

(if i done my math right)
1984 Eargeschplittenloudenboomer Gewehr (made in USA)
30-378 wby mag necked down to 22 cal
2.9 inch case
120 grs max capacity
110 grs loaded
60 grs projectile
5015 ft/sec muzzle velocity
3631 ft-lb muzzle energy

I was wrong before but check with bob hutton for more
#IrrefutableScientificEmpiricalEvidence from his first hand testing and observations.

#107 Canadian Expat on 08.05.17 at 3:07 am

This is another great site for charts. Unfortunately July’s data hasn’t been uploaded yet. http://www.chpc.biz

#108 Dolce Vita on 08.05.17 at 4:02 am

#69 Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

I was attracted to that article as well and watched his video.

Greenspan says he does not know when it will happen but knows it will (speaks about his chart going back to the 1800s and recent low interest rates “stick out” since then: “abnormally low”, “only 1 direction they can go and when they start, they will be rather rapid”); basically, catching the Market by surprise.

His “irrational exuberance” speech in 1996 credited him with predicting the dot.com bubble, 4 years later.

So, no one knows when rates will spike, not even Greespan.

We’ll find out how vulnerable Canadians really are to much higher rates if Greenspan is correct.

By the way, I love your posts…keep posting HHCE.

#109 juno on 08.05.17 at 4:03 am

This is moving way faster than I anticipated.

Interesting how the courts ruled if you try to weesle your way out of a house you just bought, you will have to pay the difference between the deal you made and the house the person sold if for.

Interesting because the guy who is selling is in total control. they can drop the price like crazy knowinig that someone else will have to fork out the difference.

This does something interesting … It takes two buyers out of the market. One who will be broke for buying at the high price and the second buyer who gets it at a discounted rate.

Supply and demand baby… Supply is going up now the demand is going down as more buyers gets taken out of the market

#110 Dolce Vita on 08.05.17 at 4:19 am

#84 For those about to flop…

Speaking about German today and energy, apparently, the Germans use coal as well, are still dependent upon it for electricity and they have not stopped the construction of new coal plants (so much for “Die Grünen”):

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/25/opinions/germany-climate-change-secret-paul-hockenos/index.html

Squares up pretty good with your energy observations for the US.

Taught a course at UofA Engineering 25 years ago about this sort of thing.

Basically, not until some “miracle” new clean energy source is found, we will not displace fossil fuels any time soon, not economically, that’s for sure.

We have not moved much beyond the 15 to 20% estimates of all energy needs by green technologies since 25 years ago.

Back then Germany touted as 30-35% of electricity from green tech with heavy subsidies to encourage it, ask them how that went today.

Sad, but true.

#111 About that 2% stress test ... on 08.05.17 at 6:30 am

Garth and blogdogs :

Current status of stress tests;

Big 6 banks told and onboard;

1) stress tests in effect before end of 2017

2) plus 2 % rate stress test on all uninsured new and renewing uninsured mortgages ( i.e. 20 % or more down payment or equity)

3) additional plus 1 % (i.e. plus 3 % rate stress test) for any new application not fitting rigid standardized metrics
and on renewals where equity has slipped below 20 % on appraisal or changes in applicant’s financial position (divorce , job loss of one earner, pay cut, etc.)

4) applies to any financially licensed lenders (i.e. credit unions, tier 2 banks, trusts, etc.) that issues an uninsured mortgage product regardless of down payment amount.

This means a minimum reduction in mortgage credit of about 17 % up to 22 % depending upon the above.

This substantiates anecdotes of lenders instructing appraisals to come in 20% (or more) light.

Note: this will apply to all uninsured mortgages regardless of the % of down payment (i.e. includes residents and non-residents with 35 % or more downpayment low LTV ratio loans)

If so, the 17 % to 22% reduction in available credit will apply to a market now down approx 19 % on average and which will be down how much more by the time this is implemented.

We could therefore see that 40 to 50 % drop by year end as that “Guru” poster stated last month on this blog.

#112 About that 2% stress test ... on 08.05.17 at 6:54 am

forgot to add my thoughts,

Lenders will issue fewer NEW mortgages as fewer will qualify under the stress tests.

They will make it up and a lot more as they up their rates on all the outstanding mortgages and LOCs.

Many credit customers will not meet the criteria upon credit review or mortgage renewal because credit quality will be de facto eroded by the stress tests , not to mention lowered RE values.

Not going to be pretty.

Anyone buying from now until stress test implementation is playing Russian roulette with a round not in the magazine, but in the chamber.

DO NOT ALLOW FAMILY, FRIENDS OR ANYONE YOU CARE ABOUT TO BUY NOW

#113 OMG It's Happening on 08.05.17 at 7:32 am

#109 Juno

“They can drop the price like crazy knowing someone else will have to fork out …”

A judge would require the seller to price the house at a reasonable market rate. It is called “mitigating your damages.” So, let’s say the first buyer walks away from the deal at 1.5 M. The house drops in value to 1.2M (in theory, at a point in time). The seller could not sell the house at a firesale price (eg 600k) and tell the first buyer that they owe the difference between 600k and 1.5M. The Court would say to the seller “you had an obligation to mitigate your damages and do your reasonable best to get the fair market value for it.”

But of course in a declining market a judge might also say you are acting reasonably when you accept an offer that is modestly lower than posted market values.

My only point is that you can’t just firesale price the thing and assume the first walk away buyer is legally on the hook for the rest.

Enjoy the forum.

#114 conan on 08.05.17 at 8:12 am

RE #100 OttawaMike on 08.05.17 at 12:35 am

Yep, the Germans, masters of humor. You just have to look harder.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNYcviXK4rg

#115 Jokester on 08.05.17 at 8:14 am

@Nonplused

A gselevator joke for ya: “My wife was vehemently pro-life until my girlfriend got pregnant.”

#116 Spock on 08.05.17 at 8:38 am

What is a 1 person bidding war. Need 2 hands to clap. Or the buyer got played for a fool by the real estate agent who said there were multiple offers?

#40 Suede on 08.04.17 at 6:57 pm
condo and TH sales in Vancouver and immediate burbs are bananas right now.

Bidding wars everywhere. But it’s definitely fragile though.

There was a 1 person bidding war for an apartment 40% over asking.

#117 dee on 08.05.17 at 8:40 am

thoughts on lots of sellers pulling their listings?

Avalanche of listings at lower prices come September? I know of one particular person who pulled their listing and is desperate to sell.

#118 maxx on 08.05.17 at 8:42 am

#1 Stan Broock on 08.04.17 at 5:30 pm

“Die Deutschen haben harte Zeit, unsere Idiotie zu verstehen”

Mehr wie die welt im ganzen.

Glücklich Gehäuse Crash alle! :-)

#119 dee on 08.05.17 at 8:43 am

Garth and blogdogs :

Current status of stress tests;

Big 6 banks told and onboard;

1) stress tests in effect before end of 2017

2) plus 2 % rate stress test on all uninsured new and renewing uninsured mortgages ( i.e. 20 % or more down payment or equity)

3) additional plus 1 % (i.e. plus 3 % rate stress test) for any new application not fitting rigid standardized metrics
and on renewals where equity has slipped below 20 % on appraisal or changes in applicant’s financial position (divorce , job loss of one earner, pay cut, etc.)

4) applies to any financially licensed lenders (i.e. credit unions, tier 2 banks, trusts, etc.) that issues an uninsured mortgage product regardless of down payment amount.

This means a minimum reduction in mortgage credit of about 17 % up to 22 % depending upon the above.

This substantiates anecdotes of lenders instructing appraisals to come in 20% (or more) light.

Note: this will apply to all uninsured mortgages regardless of the % of down payment (i.e. includes residents and non-residents with 35 % or more downpayment low LTV ratio loans)

If so, the 17 % to 22% reduction in available credit will apply to a market now down approx 19 % on average and which will be down how much more by the time this is implemented.

We could therefore see that 40 to 50 % drop by year end as that “Guru” poster stated last month on this blog.

——————-

I must ask, source? Is it a good one at least?

#120 paulo on 08.05.17 at 8:48 am

#109 & 113

you would be surprised how many people simply do not seem to realize that a agreement of purchase and sale is a firm and enforceable contract under the laws of the land.

the courts will always rule on the side of the injured parties in litigation issues concerning default – failure to complete the terms of the contract or failure to close the deal with out exception unless the defendant can
prove mitigating circumstances, such as fraud .

#121 maxx on 08.05.17 at 8:56 am

“Despite him being a bit “slow” I really like the guy, he is a true people-person, and will be sorry to see him struggle and change his lavish lifestyle when hit with upcoming hard times :-(”

People who say that they sympathize with the impending plight of these parasites bring out the skeptic in me. These dangerous twits jockeyed the market to insane heights, flashed and chortled the bejeezus out of their gains and some claim that they “sympathize”.

Give me a freakin’break.

They can all work at the dollar store or serve me coffee.

For decades to come. :-)

#122 crossbordershopper on 08.05.17 at 9:18 am

happy civic holiday everyone. its one of the only crazy days in canada that they need to invent a holiday, but cant decide what to to call it.
What a country, so we have New Brunswick Day, Saskatchewan Day, Simcoe Day, British Columbia Day, the yukon people are probable slow they wait till later in month for discovery day, maybe they discovered a holiday and when the found out 3 weeks later they said ya.
natal day in nova scotia.
but the absolute best is regatta day for my newfie friends, some crazy story about a holiday is a holiday unless some goverment body saids it is, and it like Canada throws the weather in. If its inclement, no race no holiday, if its clear its a go and you get a holiday.
a country that cant decide on a holiday name or background, only in Canada.

#123 People are Strange on 08.05.17 at 9:35 am

France had a 15% foreign buyer tax and they’ve now increased it to 60%. At least some countries are willing to face the truth and protect their own people.

#124 Renter's Revenge! on 08.05.17 at 9:37 am

Now you owe them a blog post about the German real estate market. Talk about how much more rational they are than Canadians. Do that and they’ll love you forever!

#125 TurnerNation on 08.05.17 at 9:52 am

Heard an interesting idea, that all the land being seized or earmarked as Greenbelt or National Park or nature preserve is actually being done so and held as Collateral.

Think about it, the international bankers have placed Kanada into unpayable debt. Secured by? Land.
Land is what humans have warred over since time began. And will end it.

Our border have been opened like Europe’s – this is no accident. T2 paid it lip service. Our taxpaid social services will collapse under this weight.
REMEMBER: all will get that Guaranteed minimum income.
PayYourFairShare:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/asylum-seekers-trudeau-quebec-1.4236020

#126 HaHaHa on 08.05.17 at 10:04 am

#99……Immigrant ranter….. slow down man. We feel your pain. But the year is 2017 and your Prime Minister is a beacon of light to the world. Sunny ways my friend. So rather than get upset anymore embrace the stupidity. You cannot win with these idiots. Take solace in the fact that the tide of border crossings is in Quebec right now. Keep em coming. Encourage them. Beg them to come. This empty headed prime minister is a globalist pawn. Canadians are sanctimonious asses that need a reality check. Lessons can only be learned the hard way. Sit back enjoy the show.

#127 Raging Ranter on 08.05.17 at 10:12 am

@#81 Nortel Boy, if Harper had bailed out Nortel like he did GM, then Nortel would be just another GM, a rent-seeking zombie company surviving on the government teat.

Thankfully, creative destruction is still somewhat alive in the tech sector; big tech companies are allowed to rise or fall on their own merit. The day we turn large tech companies into just another cluster of subsidized zombie firms (e.g. vehicle manufacturing, aerospace, green energy) is the day tech ceases to make any contribution whatsoever to our economic well being. Oh, it’s slowly happening. Google “SR&ED program”, that’s been around for two decades. But thankfully our political masters have yet to complete the process of zombification. Due to lack of funds, not lack of will. There’s also the political calculus: Highly skilled tech workers can usually be expected to find other jobs. They don’t represent the sympathetic, almost romanticized figure that Lunch Pail Joe, the GM factory worker with no transferable skills, does.

Manufacturing is by far the most heavily subsidized sector… and we’ve been bleeding manufacturing jobs for 40 years. Yes, by all means, let’s copy that model in one of the few sectors where companies are still expected to survive without constant government support.

#128 Porsche on 08.05.17 at 10:22 am

Buyer who walked away from real estate deal ordered to pay $360K

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/buyer-who-walked-away-from-real-estate-deal-ordered-to-pay-360k-1.4232844

#129 Raging Ranter on 08.05.17 at 10:22 am

@#109 Juno, the courts expect the plaintiff to make “reasonable efforts” to recoup the losses outside of the original transaction. If the plaintiff sold the house way below market, the judge would not be disposed to forcing the defendant to pay him the full difference, no matter how solid the contract.

Years ago a colleague of mine was fired – unjustifiably as it turned out – and fought in court to get his job back. He won, and was awarded back pay, minus the amount he had earned working another job he found in the meantime. He was warned by the lawyer early on that while his case was solid, he needed to make every effort to find a job pronto, and to document said efforts (as in every contact made with potential employers) because the judge would not require the company to compensate him for sitting there doing nothing. He was expected to make “every reasonable effort” to mitigate the income loss in the meantime. The original employer was only responsible to pay the difference.

#130 SimplyPut7 on 08.05.17 at 10:24 am

To TREB and the realtors on this blog, this why people need access to the sold data to verify the truth for themselves:

267 John Tabor Trail, Toronto ON

E3807769
Listed Date May 17, 2017
Asking Price: $549,000
Featured on CP24 Hot Property a few weeks ago
Sold Date: June 15, 2017
Sold Price: $520,000

Now back on the market!
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18503081/267-JOHN-TABOR-TR-Toronto-Ontario-M1B2R8-Malvern

Listed Date August 2, 2017
E3890455
Listed Asking Price $598,000
Reduced $9,000 on August 3rd
Current Asking Price $589,000

First, I would like to say sorry to the person who bought 246 John Tabor at the top of the market for $750,000 in March 2017. You are not going to break even for a few decades, especially as houses in better condition than yours sell for $200,000 less than what you paid.

Second, I am pretty sure I heard Al say several times on several different episodes of CP24 Hot Property, don’t list your house until September because that’s when the market will go back up. If that’s the case why aren’t you taking your own advice?

Lastly, I shouldn’t have to piece this information together from several listing sites and a tv show. If this was Nova Scotia’s viewpoint.ca or Zillow in the US I would have all this information on the house in one location in the price history section of the listing.

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.05.17 at 10:52 am

@#58 peeps watching peeps

“if real estate does not bounce back in September, will TREB, CMHC et al. lose their credibility and lead to the psychological catalyst that creates the disorderly collapse of the real estate market? They have put all their faith into a seemingly arbitrary date…”
++++++

Nope.
they just do what they always do and fudge the numbers, spin the facts, produce meaningless, unverifiable statistical goop, and, if all else fails……. lie.

Its a shame the govt regulatory agencies in this country have no testicles.
These people producing these blatant real estate pumping garbage should be breaking rocks in northern Nunavut during black fly season.

#132 Doug in London on 08.05.17 at 10:57 am

I’ve said it many, many, many, many, many, many times before and will say it again. Anyone trying to sell now in the GTA should have cashed in that winning lottery ticket last year or early this year. As the saying goes, you should always buy into weakness and sell into strength.

@crossbordershopper, post #122:
You forgot one name for the Civic Holiday. In Ottawa they call it Colonel By Day, named after Lieutenant Colonel John By who was in charge of building the Rideau Canal in the 19th century. Ottawa was formerly named Bytown after him.

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.05.17 at 10:58 am

@#116 Spock
“What is a 1 person bidding war. Need 2 hands to clap. Or the buyer got played for a fool by the real estate agent who said there were multiple offers?”
******

Once again, the laser intellect of the emotionless Vulcan mind,….. answered his own question.

#134 M on 08.05.17 at 10:59 am

..jawhol..

#135 not going down on 08.05.17 at 11:02 am

Goes on vacation for a month. . .

Comes back to find normal talk of prices going down. . .

Looks around the neighbourhood where houses were $350K 2 years ago. . .now $650K.

Thinks nothing has changed on this blog. . .

And nothing has changed in the real estate market either as prices continue to rise. . .

PROOF. . .you can spin something anyway you want.

#136 For those about to flop... on 08.05.17 at 11:05 am

This is something I like to do about once a month just to see how the market is doing.

I go zolo and type in detached properties in Vancouver proper for under 1.3m and this is the results this time.

41 listings.

10 listings have marked reduction stickers on them.

A handful of other ones have been relisted with a new number so all looks good.

Also of note,a fair whack of them have been on the market for over a month, the developers are not swooping in as they used to.

I have showed this house that is nearby where I live.

The elderly lady just did her second price reduction despite being one of the cheapest options in Vancouver and the open houses as I showed on here with sunny photos have been eerily quite.

A lot of time the realtor shut it down early so he can go home and take his suit off on a hot day.

Another house down the street just got bulldozed.They paid 1.4 in a bidding war a year or two back when now the block of land would have gone closer to a million.
So right now they are roughly in a 400k hole.Didn’t have much choice except to proceed with the new build and hope things catch fire again or would have had to eat the best part of a half million dollar mistake after expenses.

I will keep a long term eye on this one to see how it plays out…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/904-e-37th-avenue

#137 A Reply to #99 Nonplused on 08.05.17 at 11:05 am

This space is my gift to you and others. Do not abuse it by venting against immigrants. — Garth

Nonplused, you seem a bit piqued! Were the Pilgrims and Acadians illegal immigrants? Did they have all their paperwork in order? Were the Indigenous people entitled to deport them?

“Get ’em outta here.” — Donald Trump, a paragon of virtue. :)

“Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!” — Emma Lazarus

Sorry, Flopster. I promised you I wouldn’t point out the deplorability of your beloved deplorables, but I just couldn’t help myself. I’ll try to do better. :)

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.05.17 at 11:11 am

@#78 Plagiarized Cauliflower gas
“Ich bin ein Berliner’
******

Your total knowledge of germanic oratory is so inspiring, so humbling, so Presidential…..
Makes me want to marry a Kennedy and settle down in Hyannisport

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.05.17 at 11:17 am

@#245 Happy Housing Crash everyone

“I find it funny these realtors are just idiots who borrowed money and got an audi lease and nice clothes and just play the part of success. ALL the while they are HIGH SCHOOL DROP OUTS.’

******

Why are you always so nice to realtors and assume that they actually made it to High School?
I find that very disrespectful of all High School dropouts everywhere……

#140 jess on 08.05.17 at 11:24 am

ISRAEL
the “monster” binary options criminal enterprise

“Our eyes have been opened,” said Superintendent Gabi Biton, who investigates fraud and money laundering. “What we’re seeing here is a massive organised criminal enterprise.”

The binary options industry is believed to be worth between $5bn and $10bn a year and employ at least 5000 people – though possibly tens of thousands more, from call-centre staff and IT technicians to payments professionals and linguists.

…a two-and-half-year ongoing Herald investigation which revealed mass organised crime abuses of SLPs, shell firms internationally marketed as “zero-tax offshore companies”.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15453057.___Tax_haven____moves_south_of_border/

#141 welcome immigrants on 08.05.17 at 11:30 am

I think Canada should embrace any immigrant it can get.
Refugees, economic refugees, goldseekers, any.
Especially if they have young children or are young children.

Those kids will take root here, and flourish, mark my words.

What do we have? Low birth rate, and empty schools that need to close. I see gigantic schools in my yvr neighbourhood, using maybe 1/3rd of the rooms.

We have the resources here, to educate them.
And the condos to house them.
If we are short of something, it’s mainly day-care places, but those can be arranged.

US of America don’t want them… our win!

PS: Someone explain the etymology of “Pink Snow”, “Pink Pollen”, “Pink Lemonade” to me? I don’t get it. What does it have to do with housing? Does it refer to cherry blossoms somehow?

#142 For those about to flop... on 08.05.17 at 12:06 pm

#141 welcome immigrants on 08.05.17 at 11:30 am

PS: Someone explain the etymology of “Pink Snow”, “Pink Pollen”, “Pink Lemonade” to me? I don’t get it. What does it have to do with housing? Does it refer to cherry blossoms somehow?

//////////////////////////////

Sure, I’ll explain this one again as people come and people go on the blog.

Back in the winter when I started to notice people were a chance to sell at a loss and then started to sell at a loss I wanted a catch -title to show people what I was up to.

I settled on Pink Snow ,as in snow with a little bit of blood mixed in.

Winter finished and along came the Spring and the correction continued and so I settled on Pink Pollen to acknowledge the change of the seasons and also a tip of the hat to the seasonality of real estate and to acknowledge how long things have been different than previous years.

Well you see how this is going, and now speculators that mainly bought in early 2016 are sipping on Pink Lemonade.

Won’t be long and you will see me posting…

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver…

M43BC

#143 Leo Trollstoy on 08.05.17 at 12:24 pm

Got rid of a couple of my Willowdale 2/2 condos in bidding wars. $600k price point

Condo market hot in pockets

Sales mix indeed

#144 Leo Trollstoy on 08.05.17 at 12:26 pm

France had a 15% foreign buyer tax and they’ve now increased it to 60%. At least some countries are willing to face the truth and protect their own people.

Wouldn’t make a difference in Toronto

#145 NoName on 08.05.17 at 12:39 pm

we all know for synthetic cheese, lab grown “chicken meat” and egg whites, but synthetic vino…

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/08/03/can-this-startups-synthetic-wine-compete-with-napas-best/

https://munchies.vice.com/en_us/article/3dy5gn/the-worlds-first-lab-grown-chicken-finger-was-just-unveiled

#146 Frank Blood on 08.05.17 at 12:43 pm

Re: #40 Suede. Probably because the realtor told the buyer there are multiple offers coming in and you need to bring your best price.

#147 yup on 08.05.17 at 12:48 pm

Comes back to find normal talk of prices going down. . .

Looks around the neighbourhood where houses were $350K 2 years ago. . .now $650K.

……….

just gotta laugh when people say ‘prices are plunging!!’

comedy gold

#148 NoName on 08.05.17 at 12:49 pm

how did i missed this one, maga is a joke!

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jsvine/trumps-florida-clubs-want-to-hire-more-foreign-workers?utm_term=.dl0qjlEe3#.mrQQwA4yN

#149 Coolbeans on 08.05.17 at 12:56 pm

#99 nonpulsed
Hey Garth u just got roasted!! Burn baby burn!

#150 TurnerNation on 08.05.17 at 1:03 pm

Protest much? Agenda rammed in, look at their disgust for us. All those taxes we pay…and the people getting the cash just following orders.

http://www.postcity.com/Eat-Shop-Do/Do/July-2017/Rally-held-to-oppose-REimagining-Yonge-streetscape-plan/

Willowdale People, a new residents’ group, has been causing a stir in North York. The group is against REimagining Yonge, a streetscaping plan introduced by Ward 23 councillor John Filion, that would see new streetscaping, bike lanes and a reduction of traffic lanes along Yonge in North York.
***
““The vast majority of residents that have taken part of any of the consultations thus far are in favour of it,” said Filion. “So why would I give legitimacy to this group of people who I’ve never heard of, who don’t take part [in the consultations] over the many hundreds of people who I have spoken to who like it?””***

#151 jess on 08.05.17 at 1:06 pm

dark store theory big box

https://www.natlawreview.com/article/vanishing-tax-base-dark-store-theory-collides-local-tax-assessors

” Lowe’s is challenging assigned property values of 10 open stores in the county for each of the last three years. The stores are currently valued at $82 a square foot. Lowe’s asked to reduce the valuation to $20 a square foot,”

http://www.mlive.com/business/index.ssf/2017/03/new_law_would_challenge_lower.html
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/re

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2017/02/dark_stores_tax_case_headed_to.htmltail/2016/09/12/texas-counties-challenged-big-box-retail-dark-store-strategy

#152 TurnerNation on 08.05.17 at 1:08 pm

Who’s going to be living in these shoddily built shoebox condo blocs? Us. Back in the USSR.

11 towers, 42 floors each say 10 units/cells per floor = about 4500 units. Ja ja this is luxury.

http://www.postcity.com/Eat-Shop-Do/Do/July-2017/Why-local-malls-are-trading-hands-at-such-a-torrid-pace/

“A plan for the site was proposed by Freed Developments and ELAD in 2016 and calls for a network of roads, tall towers to be used for residential and office space, a sizable public park, a new community centre and of course, retail space. However, it too has come under fire from residents for exceeding the city’s prescribed height limits — with 11 towers up to 42 storeys proposed.”

#153 About that 2% stress test ... on 08.05.17 at 1:14 pm

to Lee, comment #119

In two words, yes and very.

Major financial institution senior staff.
Not being dramatic but cannot say more.

#154 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 08.05.17 at 1:20 pm

#144 Leo Trollstoy on 08.05.17 at 12:26 pm
France had a 15% foreign buyer tax and they’ve now increased it to 60%. At least some countries are willing to face the truth and protect their own people.
……………………………………..

It’s not just France, there are many countries that restrict foreign ownership to protect citizens form being priced out of the housing market by foreign money.

#155 Triplenet on 08.05.17 at 1:25 pm

#131 ElevatorFartz

For a monthly fee, you can access any real estate board in Canada and download their stats package, current and historical sales, listings and associated data.
Further, you can import and export into your own stats package – because you do have one.
Then you can publish …..
The fees range from $2k to 5k per month but from an investor point of view – its almost like having insider information.

#156 For those about to flop... on 08.05.17 at 1:59 pm

Pink Lemonade stand in Richmond.

These guys are trying a bit of shock value just to get a few eyeballs on this one,but there is no way they intend to let it go for this number.

Purchased for an even 2 million in August 2016 with an assessment to support it ,they have now sent it back down to the minors towards what it was assessed for in 2015.

Can get a much newer house for the money, although it sounds like Broadway could be a suitor as he just loves Richmond by the sounds of it.

At least in Richmond you don’t have to pay anyone to level the block…

M43BC

9551 Kirkmond Crescent, Richmond

Feb 18:$2,288,000
Aug 4: $1,599,000
Change: – 689000.00 -30%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=9551%20Kirkmond%20Crescent,%20Richmond&ptype_house=1&max_price=1300000&min_price=600000&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1WFBYUQ==

#157 pink on 08.05.17 at 2:21 pm

#142 Flop
Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver…

Ok, thanks for explaining.

Well, at some point in time (next year?, next decade?) when the real (-50%) yvr crash happens, you should change your colour from pink to red of course.

At this moment, it just a SFH correction, with condos chugging along, still upwards.

#158 stress test this on 08.05.17 at 2:24 pm

‘stress test every single borrower later this year at the going rate plus 2%’

is a proposal from the psychological warfare dept in Ottawa, in case you didn’t notice the war is on you.

it’s about as likely as selling of the airports
of course, none of these scripts are written in Ottawa

The lending industry fully expects this to happen. — Garth

#159 For those about to flop... on 08.05.17 at 2:25 pm

Pink Lemonade stand in Surrey.

These guys picked up this place in July 2016 for 803k letting someone else of the hook if you look at the assessment.

Assessed at 780 lots of people have assured me that Surrey is on fire so I’m not sure what is taking them so long to get their money back.

This is the type of house that should have no problems being moved on and so we see if the price reset does the trick or if they play the long version of cricket…

M43BC

12698 Drummond Place ,Surrey

Mar 27:$1,098,000
Aug 3: $799,000
Change: – 299000.00 -27%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=12698%20Drummond%20Place,%20Surrey&ptype_house=1&max_price=1300000&min_price=600000&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA3ODM2MA==

#160 For those about to flop... on 08.05.17 at 2:30 pm

21 pm
#142 Flop
Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver…

Ok, thanks for explaining.

Well, at some point in time (next year?, next decade?) when the real (-50%) yvr crash happens, you should change your colour from pink to red of course.

At this moment, it just a SFH correction, with condos chugging along, still upwards.

////////////////////////////

Yes, I could be doing this for a long time .

I am weighing up Garth’s offer of a 100million 10 year contract as it is about as physical as baseball and so I should be compensated the same.

You know I have been showing losses on condos too,right?

Some in the 500/ 600k price range but just the other day I showed one that took a 300k loss and we didn’t even touch on opportunity loss or any of that as their money was tied up for a few years…

M43BC

#161 Reply to #99 Nonpulsed on 08.05.17 at 3:33 pm

So your only problem is with the legality of it. If the govt repealed its immigration laws and allowed anyone to enter youd sit quietly by because it is legal now? Your rant seems ideological and narrow.

#162 KnowledgeIsPower on 08.05.17 at 8:35 pm

Rents are flat everywhere and have not moved much in 20 years. Don’t become a home moaner and you will have lots of money for retirement, travelling, going out and enjoying life instead of maintenance, repairs, strata fees and property taxes.

There is a reason why everyone is selling – they finally figured it out. Better to be free of all the bills that come with owning property and have fun everyday – than be constantly broke, stuck in the same 4 walls looking at the same neighbours year after year. Might as well be in prison.

Life is short. Get out of debts, high outgoing costs every month, and enjoy your life everyday.

Choose to be free of it all and have fun. Remember – Realtors are not your friend. They are just in it for themselves.

#163 Nonplused on 08.06.17 at 12:24 am

#137 A Reply to #99 Nonplused (yesterday)

Umm. Hmm.

I wonder how the native Americans would have fared had they been able to repel the European invasion (which is what it was). We are the beneficiaries of our ancestors having won that war, and give the natives credit it took 400 years, but I am not sure it can be described as “just”.

The natives simply misunderstood what they faced, or they would have repelled everybody that came over and put them back on their boats. It’s all history now though.

#164 DON on 08.06.17 at 5:11 am

#137 A Reply to #99 Nonplused on 08.05.17 at 11:05 am

This space is my gift to you and others. Do not abuse it by venting against immigrants. — Garth

Nonplused, you seem a bit piqued! Were the Pilgrims and Acadians illegal immigrants? Did they have all their paperwork in order? Were the Indigenous people entitled to deport them?

“Get ’em outta here.” — Donald Trump, a paragon of virtue. :)

“Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!” — Emma Lazarus

Sorry, Flopster. I promised you I wouldn’t point out the deplorability of your beloved deplorables, but I just couldn’t help myself. I’ll try to do better. :)
*************

How far back do you go!

Stay in the present and deal with illegal and legal that is what Nonplused is saying and has made sure to explain. Why shouldn’t we do something about it today and follow the law. Those who follow the law get an immigration approval and those who don’t better have a good reason or be deported.

Perhaps he ranted a bit (we all do it) and Garth has the right to Delete if the intention is unclear.

I would rather give a hard working family who follow the rules a chance than an embezzling millionaire who is running from crimes.

#165 DON on 08.06.17 at 5:24 am

#161 Reply to #99 Nonpulsed on 08.05.17 at 3:33 pm

So your only problem is with the legality of it. If the govt repealed its immigration laws and allowed anyone to enter youd sit quietly by because it is legal now? Your rant seems ideological and narrow.
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What exactly are you asking? We have immigration laws for a reason, why take criminals in? What government would repeal its immigration laws and allow anyone to enter?

#166 Mark on 08.06.17 at 10:49 am

Das Houzen Crashen!!!!

#167 chopstix on 08.06.17 at 11:52 am

#162 KnowledgeIsPower on 08.05.17 at 8:35 pm
Rents are flat everywhere and have not moved much in 20 years. Don’t become a home moaner and you will have lots of money for retirement, travelling, going out and enjoying life instead of maintenance, repairs, strata fees and property taxes.

There is a reason why everyone is selling – they finally figured it out. Better to be free of all the bills that come with owning property and have fun everyday – than be constantly broke, stuck in the same 4 walls looking at the same neighbours year after year. Might as well be in prison.

Life is short. Get out of debts, high outgoing costs every month, and enjoy your life everyday.

Choose to be free of it all and have fun. Remember – Realtors are not your friend. They are just in it for themselves.
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rents have been ‘flat for 20 yrs’ ??
what universe are you living in…at least what city?
…where do you live, in cornwall ont…or sudbury?
try telling that to people having to rent (priced out from buying) in/around Toronto or Vancouver, where a strong sense of desperation and anxiety only grows around 1/trying to find affordable housing that isn’t a dump and 2/competing/bidding against hordes of others for the same rental…and 3/worrying (in vancouver bc) that after 1 yr your rent won’t jump 10-50% due to fixed term lease gaming…or your greedy landlord wants to ‘demo/renovict you out and make more $$$ by turning it into an Air BNB.