The landing

Toronto real estate numbers are a disaster. But, relax, this is not just about The Big Smoke where reality’s now setting in with a vengeance. It’s about desire, daring and consequences.

First the numbers. On Thursday realtors confirmed what this pathetically prescient blog reported last week. A detached house in the Kingdom of 416 which fetched $1.578 million in April is now going for $1.3 million. More than a 17% decline in 90 days. The biggest monthly decline since the Bronze Age. Historic. And sales are foretelling more pain to come. The number of detached deals collapsed in July (from last July) by 48%. Overall in the GTA, home to six million lost souls, sales faded 40%. In the 905 region, land of suburban despair, accepted offers fell by half. There is not enough lipstick in the land to make this porker pucker.

What does it mean?

Clearly that the market’s cascading towards a bottom not yet in sight. As the real estate boss said when releasing the sour stats, it ain’t the result of a foreign buyer’s tax, but rather because the locals – who thought houses could never falter – are freaking out.

“A recent release from the Ontario government confirmed TREB’s own research which found that foreign buyers represented a small proportion of overall home buying activity in the GTA.  Clearly, the year-over-year decline we experienced in July had more to do with psychology, with would-be home buyers on the sidelines waiting to see how market conditions evolve.”

Psychology made the market go up – FOMO, the fear of missing out. Now psychology’s created a collapse – the fear of not getting out. It’s human nature on display. We buy high. We sell low. Most people lose because they act like lemmings. Cute but moronic.

Source: Bloomberg

Rest assured, this will spread to other markets, from Halifax to Ottawa, Hamilton, London, the flat places, Victoria and YVR. There is only one direction for residential real estate over the next couple of years. It’s also likely events will become disorderly before that bottom is in sight. In fact, it’s started.

“Sold in April but made the mistake of allowing a long closing for the middle of August,” a blog dog posted yesterday. “We still have 12 more days to go and haven’t heard anything from the buyer even though lawyers from both sides are talking. Will she walk? Counting down now……..”

Deals are collapsing everywhere across southern Ontario and now in BC. The saga of Derek that’s been reported here for the last two months is a harbinger. As another poster, a paralegal in Barrie, stated: “I can tell you that closing defaults are epidemic, the domino effect is starting to show up, I would estimate that 20% of cases have already seen the respondent file bankruptcy. The courts are being overwhelmed with cases related to failed real-estate deals. It will likely take years 4-6 to complete a superior court statement of claim currently in Ontario…”

Meanwhile the BC Supreme Court has ordered a buyer who walked out on a deal to cough up $360,000 in damages – the difference between what he offered and what the property subsequently sold for after he failed to close. The original contract was for over $1.2 million but five months later the property had a market value of only $900,000. The sellers sued for the difference plus carrying costs, and won. How could it be otherwise? Defaulting on a no-conditions real estate offer is a clear breach of contract, and simply walking away from your deposit doesn’t even come close to compensating.

Given that the Lower Mainland and the Golden Horseshoe have both gone through speculative frenzies – now entering what could be a long decline – conditions are ideal for defaults, suits, damages, confrontation, tears and happy litigators. Most people buying properties worth $1 million or more are moving up from existing real estate – which they sold to someone else. All it takes is for one person in this chain to panic at having paid an excessive amount, refuse to close, and all hell breaks loose.

Equally threatening are skinny appraisals. With rapidly changing market conditions, lenders are being excessively cautious as they evaluate the amount of financing they’re willing to put on a house that lost 17% of its value in the last three months, and may lose 20% more by Thanksgiving. Many buyers are coming up short by tens (or hundreds) of thousands – unable to close deals they entered into with no financing condition.

This disorderly collapse of transactions the realtors already counted and included in their stats will shock many people in the months ahead. It is the ugly underbelly of the greed, speculation and house lust that created 30% monthly price gains. If you are a defaulting buyer or a jilted seller, understand there’s no good outcome.

This week’s market report sends a clear signal to purchasers yet to close. You’re reaching for a falling knife.

260 comments ↓

#1 paracho on 08.03.17 at 5:25 pm

First!
Not an easy correction!

#2 Pete on 08.03.17 at 5:32 pm

How about the sales? 5900 homes sold in GTA in July was unheard of. I checked the TREB archive. could not find anything below 6000 going back to 2002. So volume wise, we are already back to 1999.

#3 TS on 08.03.17 at 5:34 pm

Today is a fine today to purchase a home from a TREB real estate agent.

The TREB says so. Why would they lie? They don’t have any skin in the game

:)

#4 Pete on 08.03.17 at 5:34 pm

I am looking forward to what TREB will say next month, if GTA average price dropped below $700k

#5 Danny on 08.03.17 at 5:35 pm

Noticing over the last week a huge increase in rental condos and houses for rent on real estate sites for etobicoke around Bloor and Islington.
Houses for rent from $4,000 to $7,000 plus expenses per month. Condos from $ 1,800 to $3,000.
Definitely a shift….are those speculators seeing what Garth has been predicting?
Definitely not want Toronto Real Estate Boards said today about people staying on sidelines until Fall.
I think the housing market buyers and sellers have left the stadium. ….not buying or selling….trying out the rental market instead.
Probably sellers are those who took savings out of banks…with very low interest and bought houses as investment instead…otherwise why are so many houses being rented….like never before?

#6 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.03.17 at 5:37 pm

Happy HAPPY Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#7 Lumpia on 08.03.17 at 5:41 pm

According to my friends who are house owners and have almost zero 0$ in liquid assets. Houses always go up! They hate me for not being a sheep and following the herd. Meanwhile, I used my supposed down to build 2 gyms and a barbershop in Asia. My house poor friend with 0$ in savings told me he wants to invest and he has 220k in Heloc. LOL I’ll never do business with a Heloc guy.

#8 Raj on 08.03.17 at 5:41 pm

Can you believe this? Isn’t this unethical?

“Toronto real estate market picks up after lull”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/toronto-real-estate-market-picks-up-after-lull/article35861587/

#9 The real Kip on 08.03.17 at 5:44 pm

Hey, if my property value drops by 30% will my taxes go down? Don’t laugh, might be onto something here.

#10 Ian on 08.03.17 at 5:46 pm

My thought du jour is that Horizons Betapro needs to come up with a 3x short Canadian subprime fund. We could all load up our RSPs with that puppy and take 8-15 years off our retirement timeframes.

What a donkey festival this is.

#11 Jimmy on 08.03.17 at 5:47 pm

#152 Penny Henny

Thanks! I’m still respecting the rule on Firsts!

#12 Angry Migtow on 08.03.17 at 5:49 pm

Will the Loonie depreciate again? I bought a load of Greenbacks last week when the Loonie was at 80.55 US American cents.

#13 Jay Currie on 08.03.17 at 5:52 pm

The domino effect leads, quite quickly, to panic selling. All of a sudden cash is king. Want to get a 10% discount from an already discounted price? Bring cash.

But what gets really interesting is when it dawns on people that they owe more than their house is worth. That has not happened yet because the vast majority of owners did not buy at the peak. If you bought your house for a million and it went up to 1.4 you felt a satisfying sense of having “made a good investment”. And you’ll feel that way at 1.3, 1.2 and on down. At 1 million you’ll be telling yourself that, well, you have to live somewhere. But, if the house drops to 800…now there is panic.

I suspect this will get very nasty indeed.

#14 Travis Bickle on 08.03.17 at 5:56 pm

Paying $360,000 in damages … for what?!? Should we not be allowed to change our minds? Last week I bought a ridiculously overpriced 18oz jar of “manuka” honey for $60 and when I got home, I realized it was a stupid thing to do (it would have been worth $60 had it instantly cured my bipolar disorder – it hadn’t). So, I went back to the store returned the honey and got my $60 back – reason I gave was “changed my mind”…

Those folks sold their house for $900,000 instead of $1.2 million – so what, I’m sure they still made a nice profit. Thus, contract or not, they were suing out of pure greed. Conclusion: they are greedy!

The buyers signed the contract, and when they realized they wouldn’t be able to flip the $1.2 million house for $1.5 in few months, they “changed their mind” and walked out. Conclusion: they are also greedy! I’m sure they will appeal the verdict.

Lawyers are making money out of all these greedy folks (or lemmings), and will continue to do so in future. Because, greed captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit… Meanwhile, Gordon Gekko is somewhere smiling t us…

#15 Smartalox on 08.03.17 at 5:58 pm

‘Sold’ stats refer to closed deals, right? If an offer doesn’t close, or if the deal ‘falls through’ it’s not registered as sold, right?

So sold stats reflect the offers that were accepted months ago?

Or are ‘sold’ stats for a given month subject to revision, if deals fall through?

Sold stats are accepted offers, not closings. — Garth

#16 OlderbutWiser on 08.03.17 at 5:58 pm

Our Toronto condo just closed today and the money is in the bank…will say that I was sweating there for awhile though….heading out to celebrate with the spouse!!

Sold the unit on May 1 and I think we hit the top of the market..we are retiring and leaving Toronto for our farm in the country that we purchased 17 years ago…

My brother sold his house in Keswick and not only has the closing date been delayed because the purchaser could not sell their home, the bank came in and appraised it for $8,000 less than the selling price…purchaser says they can’t come up with the shortfall. Lots of pain to come in this market still…

#17 Silent the people on 08.03.17 at 5:59 pm

BC foreign buyer challenging court order! It should be in the courts for a few more months/years. I would recommend not spending the money yet!

#18 Sidelined Buyer on 08.03.17 at 6:01 pm

The rash of closing defaults is extremely concerning, but also highlights a key lack of accountability on the part of realtors.

If they ever were ever to become liable for the buyers they represent who go in firm with no conditions should the deal fall through, we’d likely see the practice of going in with a firm offer reduced heavily.

Currently, realtors are telling their buyers to “be sure [you’re] ready to make a firm offer when the time comes,” implying the only way to succeed is to waive all conditions. This has been true for a while (though not currently), but with the rapid increase in prices seen in Q1, realtors have created an incentive to stretch affordability, or engage in unwise practices, such as bundled mortgages or borrowing from the bank (read: HELOC) of “Mom and Dad” to get into the market before becoming priced out. These behaviours are obvious to any buyers’ agent, or could easily be discovered by asking a few simple questions. Therefore, realtors should have ethical and financial exposure in these deals, knowing full well they are likely pushing a young couple into a deal they may not be able to close on.

I’m sure once these buyer agents realize they would be partially (or maybe fully in the case of recent anecdotes where buyers have literally disappeared) on the hook if a firm deal falls through, few offers will be made without financing clauses.

#19 robert james on 08.03.17 at 6:04 pm

“House of cards” is certainly a good description for GTA housing market at this point.. Greed is a bitch ..

#20 Darryl on 08.03.17 at 6:08 pm

Happy HAPPY Housing Crash Everyone to you too Happy Housing Crash Everyone . :)

#21 Tls on 08.03.17 at 6:08 pm

Too bad the banks don’t have 100% skin in the game.Democracy,socialism,comunism,capitalism just words which doesn’t reflect reality.Everyone (99%) will be affected by this housing crash and we don’t know for how long.

#22 In Correct on 08.03.17 at 6:10 pm

That hole in the wall does not have the right shape and size, this looks like a set-up. On another note, my colleagues and family tell me that while Toronto may be imploding, Montreal and Quebec City are heading in the opposite direction, possibly because of the measures taken in BC and Ontario. Could a new bubble be starting here in the belle province of Quebec??

No. — Garth

#23 Debtslavecreator on 08.03.17 at 6:13 pm

From FONO to FoNGO in 3 months
– possible dovish raise or no increase by BofC in October: either way the CAD turns over and begins what will be the worst decline in Beaver history relative to the CAD – Mark you will learn the difference between domestic currency value and international value
-if these people in power are crazy enough to pass the 2 new rules proposed which would kick in in October , we are looking at a good chance of an acceleration in the collapse into May-July next year when I think the government will panic and reverse most measures put in place
-if the government backs off and does not pass the 2 new proposed rules then maybe we get a temporary bottom in November
-BofC will start talking down the loonie further into the late spring and drop to 0 by end of next summer
-QE beaver style to buy MBS and Government bonds starts in Q42018
-Canadian loonie dives to .55 give or take .02 relative to USD by year end 2018
-enjoy your wild grocery bills, and sharply rising property taxes and user fees
-oh and if you think you’re going to enjoy your “big gains” in stocks and maybe PM shares in your TFSA well hold that thought as our friends in Ottawa will nail many of you with a bill for 100% tax rate on your registered plan gains since you engaged in “speculative” investing in your RSP
They have 9 general / subjective conditions in which to come after your “Gains”in a registered plan

#24 Debtslavecreator on 08.03.17 at 6:13 pm

FOMO to FoNGO

#25 Bystander on 08.03.17 at 6:17 pm

How would things play out when the buyer declares bankruptcy on a no-conditions deal?

#26 Dave on 08.03.17 at 6:27 pm

Sounds logical but just look at prices in Vancouver on the MLS site, and it looks like there is no correction whatsover.

#27 Lag on 08.03.17 at 6:29 pm

This one is for Mark:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/01/20170504_toronto_0.jpg

Ha ha ha!
How many years does Teranet HPI lag again?

Right…

#28 Guy in Calgary on 08.03.17 at 6:34 pm

#14 Travis Bickle on 08.03.17 at 5:56 pm
Paying $360,000 in damages … for what?!? Should we not be allowed to change our minds? Last week I bought a ridiculously overpriced 18oz jar of “manuka” honey for $60 and when I got home, I realized it was a stupid thing to do (it would have been worth $60 had it instantly cured my bipolar disorder – it hadn’t). So, I went back to the store returned the honey and got my $60 back – reason I gave was “changed my mind”…

This has to be a troll…
What if the sellers were using the proceeds to get a new house and now they couldn’t because someone backed out of a deal? How is this fair to the people up the chain?

You sign the dotted line and you commit yourself to the transaction. These are transactions between consenting adults, you cannot just renag because market conditions change. You made the call, you made the gamble, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. They lost by not taking possession. They could have held on for 10 years and made a profit who knows.

Using this logic, if the deal went through and the house actually went up in value, the sellers should be able to get their house back at the price they sold at since they sold thinking it was the top but it wasn’t and that’s not fair!

#29 Quotable Quotes on 08.03.17 at 6:35 pm

“I have striven not to laugh at human actions, not to weep at them, nor to hate them, but to understand them.”
— Baruch Spinoza

“We can lick gravity, but sometimes the paperwork is overwhelming.”
— Wernher von Braun

“Men for the sake of getting a living forget to live.”
— Margaret Fuller

#30 In Correct on 08.03.17 at 6:35 pm

#22 assuming your “no” did not refer to my suspicion about the hole in the wall: aside from language barrier issues and the province being much like Greece if it weren’t for the transfer payments, what is the reason that a bubble will not start/continue here? The federal stress test rules that will also apply here? Lack of quality jobs in the province that would entice wealthier folks to buy? Something else?

#31 White Crock BC on 08.03.17 at 6:36 pm

Angry Migtow on 08.03.17 at 5:49 pm

Will the Loonie depreciate again? I bought a load of Greenbacks last week when the Loonie was at 80.55 US American cents.

=================

Wow! Congrats on hitting the peak of all peaks especially considering the high was 80.50 and then you had to pay commission…. but whatever.

We love hyperbole and schadenfreude here.

#32 Chaddywack on 08.03.17 at 6:38 pm

What’s stopping that guy in Surrey who got the judgment for $360,000 from walking?

He already said in the story that he plans to appeal it. I’m not sure that the judgment is even enforceable while it’s under appeal. In the meantime he can transfer any of his assets to his wife, children, cousin, etc. and when it comes time to collect he has nothing.

You can’t get blood out of a stone as people in debt always say. I used to work in collections and probably about 40% of debts were written off.

It’s one thing to get a judgment, but it’s another thing to collect on it!

The other interesting thing if you read the judgment on that Surrey sale is that the owner turned down two higher offers in the mid-900s eventually settling lower for $910k, but apparently the market is HOT HOT HOT in Vancouver? Total disconnect……but if we didn’t have flop I might actually believe it’s hot.

#33 Cto on 08.03.17 at 6:39 pm

Would somebody please tell #14 Travis Bickle why contracts exist and what their purpose is!!!!!

#34 Cto on 08.03.17 at 6:43 pm

Travis house sales do not have a return policy

#35 Stone on 08.03.17 at 6:48 pm

#14 Travis Bickle

————–

Let’s say someone offered a million dollars for your shack. You accept the offer. All conditions are met. Then, the buyer comes back and says “Sorry buddy. I changed my mind. I only want to give you $700,000.” Of course, your response would be “Sure thing! I like getting screwed over. Please sir, may I have some more?” No one can take your comments seriously.

Stick to your honey purchases. I do wonder how you would handle something more serious than buying a jar of honey. Life is a bit more complicated. I feel sorry for you.

#36 Linda on 08.03.17 at 6:49 pm

Like #25 I too am interested in knowing just what occurs should a buyer declare bankruptcy. Does this get one ‘out’ of the contract or not? Though if someone qualifies as bankrupt, one wonders why they were shopping for a house/condo in the first place – maybe they couldn’t rent because no landlord would have them?

Though I also have to wonder if the courts would uphold the contract regardless of a declaration of bankruptcy, especially if they have good reason to believe the person who is declaring is doing so simply to get out of a contract that they chose to enter into of their own free will.

#37 young & foolish on 08.03.17 at 6:56 pm

My grandad can’t keep enough rental applications on hand! His take … don’t panic … or, in other words, if you don’t have to sell, then don’t.

In the meantime, cash-flow has never been better! Everyone needs a roof over their heads. You can pay the mortgage, or you can pay the landlord.

Or you can rent, cut your cash flow, save, invest and have a mortgage-free life. Stop your house-pimping. It’s old. — Garth

#38 Shortymac on 08.03.17 at 6:56 pm

Good think I decided to stay out for now, this crash should be playing out for the next year or so it seems. So much for the “it will pick back up next year”.

Are you predicting 50% drop now? I guess all bets are off for the time being.

#39 conan on 08.03.17 at 6:58 pm

“Deals are collapsing everywhere across southern Ontario and now in BC.” – Garth

Do you have hard numbers? For science, as there is an interesting macro at play here. After the tulip mania, the government of the day, crafted a solution for all outstanding transactions.

Looks like another high rise fire. The Torch Tower in Dubai is lighting it up. Least in Dubai, the buildings are sealed properly, so this should just be a cladding burn off.

I wonder who sells this exterior cladding? Seems there are two products, and the one that does not burn, cost 5 times as much to buy.

#40 Ex-Cowtown on 08.03.17 at 6:59 pm

#14 Travis Bickle on 08.03.17 at 5:56 pm

Paying $360,000 in damages … for what?!? Should we not be allowed to change our minds?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Sure you can change your mind. Just not documents after you’ve signed them. I’m fairly certain that if someone backed out on a deal with you you’d be the first one screaming for the courts to “protect your rights”.

#41 Old Ron the Realtor on 08.03.17 at 7:00 pm

I warned of a stuck market last month, and unfortunately I may have been correct. Listings are only 5% higher in number than last July, and sales are under 6,000. So Sellers are holding on to their houses and Buyers are waiting for a bottom. Nasty combination.

#42 bubu on 08.03.17 at 7:06 pm

hahaha.. you celebrate like the price is $300k not $1.3M…. you guys still can’t afford a house and the prices will never go to $500-600k what you might hope…

How much was a house in GTA when Garth started the blog? :)

#43 maka on 08.03.17 at 7:09 pm

Greedy buyers who made crazy over bids…

Happy HAPPY Housing Crash Everyone!!

#44 Mark on 08.03.17 at 7:11 pm

““House of cards” ”

I’d replace the bolded “c” with a “t”. To more accurately describe the situation. Lol!

(please, please don’t hate me!!!!)

Seriously though, the declines do appear to be exaggerated by the rapid shift in the sales mix towards being more normal. Which is totally what you’d expect given that sales mix changes in favour of plopping up Realtor average prices wasn’t a sustainable state of affairs.

#45 Vanagon on 08.03.17 at 7:14 pm

Just an FYI the market is not in correction mode in Vancouver. Where r the stats on this ? Sales dipped on the fb tax and are trending higher. Condos are parabolic right now. What’s with the narrative that TO and van are experiencing the same market conditions. They are not.
Also the media still very much controls the mindset of buyers. Not many stories on price drops out there

#46 TOrenter on 08.03.17 at 7:14 pm

Suddenly i see more and more “for lease” houses everywhere in Toronto.
SFH that used to be flying off the shelves few months ago are now going straight to lease at ridiculous prices as the owners believe they can ride it out for a little while and at least get someone to pay their mortgage.
The problem is that their mortgage is huge and now they ask 3,4 and 5 thousand dollars for crappy semis.

What a joke!

#47 WUL on 08.03.17 at 7:16 pm

A mess.

Torontonians, take your mind off the debacle for 2.5 hours. Enjoy life. It is short.

Stamps / Argos at 7:30 E.T.

#48 Mark on 08.03.17 at 7:16 pm

“How would things play out when the buyer declares bankruptcy on a no-conditions deal?”

The plaintiff secures a judgement. The judgement lines up with all the other unsecured creditors of the buyer for their pro rata percentage of the Estate.

-BofC will start talking down the loonie further into the late spring and drop to 0 by end of next summer

Sounds about right, but they’ll have a hard time suppressing the loonie with so much deflationary pressure domestically.

My thought du jour is that Horizons Betapro needs to come up with a 3x short Canadian subprime fund.

Who, in their right mind, would want to take the other side of that trade? Lol.

#49 Mark on 08.03.17 at 7:18 pm

“Ha ha ha!
How many years does Teranet HPI lag again?”

Going by that chart, 3-4 maybe? Which corresponds well with the typical 7-year hold period, and the 2013 apex reached in housing prices.

Teranet bizarrely thinks (according to that chart of the Teranet HPI) that house prices went down between 2012 and 2013. Couldn’t be anything further from the truth! When in fact 2012-2013 was probably one of the best periods on record, inviting of Minister Flaherty’s CMHC subprime crackdown.

#50 Cottingham a bargain on 08.03.17 at 7:21 pm

If your post above is true , then how do you explain rising prices in the condo market coupled with the absolute absence of available rental stock?

Seems like a bifurcated market that could resolve itself to the upside

#51 nick on 08.03.17 at 7:21 pm

#14 Travis Bickle on 08.03.17 at 5:56 pm

lmfao wtf dude? What are you smoking?

#52 40 something family man on 08.03.17 at 7:26 pm

I bet the first thing CAD gov will do is lay off as many dudes who run around to appraise houses. Taxes will be sticky-icky!!

I have a bbq with the ‘northern herd’ (friends living stoufville area) in a few weeks, and half of them work in the RE sector – agents, REIT companies, construction, etc. Many of them teased, judged, questioned our family for renting these past years. Let’s see what they got to say this time!

#53 Newcomer on 08.03.17 at 7:27 pm

#4 Pete on 08.03.17 at 5:34 pm
I am looking forward to what TREB will say next month, if GTA average price dropped below $700k
—————–

They will say it’s a great time to buy, and that buyers finally have some choice and some price relief. A discount on houses, what could be more enticing.

#54 turn of the tide on 08.03.17 at 7:28 pm

“A recent release from the Ontario government confirmed TREB’s own research which found that foreign buyers represented a small proportion of overall home buying activity in the GTA…”

Would be a LOT more interesting if instead of the % of foreign buyers, we could see the % of DOLLAR amount of all deals that are made by foreign buyers…..

What % of “wealthy” buyers does it take to create a bubble??

I keep hearing this argument of ONLY 5%… that I would have no impact, etc, etc..

Well, Scotch is great, everyone loves it. Keeps you warm and fuzzy on a cold night.

Let’s say you invite 100 people to a sale of “Liquid Pleasures Scotch”, where 20 bottles are available and you invite only 5% “wealthy buyers”, that makes it only 5 “high roller” buyers out of 100.

Not bad, right? It’s just 5 people.

Well, what if these 5 people are very well off and are willing to spend 10-20 times the locals for the same item? Who do you think will snatch the first 5 bottles of Liquid Pleasures Scotch?

Once the 1st of these 20 bottles sells for 3 times what it’s worth, the seller is like “holy sheets! That was weird, but hey I’ll take it!”. Then another of one these wealthy folks buys the next bottle for 4 times what it’s worth. Now the seller is thinking “this is brilliant! These are worth way more than I thought!”. Seller doubles the asking price. Third wealthy high roller again bids 3 times the new higher price. What do you think that will do for the prices of the remaining bottles?

Do you think the seller will go back to the original asking price? Do you think the seller will want to sell to anyone else other than these rich folks?

Maybe the seller can only sell 5 bottles at these prices today but hey, if he holds on to the other 15 bottles, next week there’s another load of these healthy buyers. Why sell it for a fraction?

Then the local (*average in every sense of the word) folks seeing this happen a few times, borrow up the wazoo from their mom, dad, uncle, dog and cat because they now believe the Liquid Pleasures Scotch is actually “Liquid Gold” and they want to resell it to high rollers too, the seller makes a bunch once again.

Sure, if there’s 5,000 bottles of Scotch this is unlikely to happen. But like housing, when the inventory is low in comparison to the demand and a few players have huge purchasing power, it’s what pretty fat bubbles are made of.

This may be a crude and hypothetical example but hopefully it illustrates that “ONLY” as little as 5% of “wealthy” buyers can make a dramatic impact on the perceived value. The moral of the story is that the percentage of “wealthy” (or foreign) buyers does not even matter, what matters is how much do these 5 out of 100 buyers *have_to_spend and how much are they *willing_to_spend for the short supply of Liquid Pleasure.

Now, whether or not we should allow wealthy or foreign people to buy Liquid Pleasures Scotchs is not up for me to decide but to dismiss that as little as 5% of wealthy buyers can make a huge difference, I think is naive. Yes, a small group of people, with a lot of money can make a gigantic difference in price.

Have a great weekend everyone.

#55 Alicia on 08.03.17 at 7:33 pm

I think it’s insane that we don’t have data. Why do we get updates/ “news” about real estate from the boards? It’s like asking a wolf to tell us about the sheep. And the newspapers have a conflict of interest as they are in the business of selling ads to developers. The whole system lacks transparency, monitoring and enforcing or the little rules we do have. And the CMHC is the sham that holds it all together. Down with CMHC. Up with some data monitoring and reporting from an impartial source. Blah.

#56 Wrk.dover on 08.03.17 at 7:34 pm

#6 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.03.17 at 5:37 pm

Happy HAPPY Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

———————————————

I saw what you just did there. Cake Day for you!

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.17 at 7:44 pm

@#14 Travis Bickle

You talking ta me?

#58 Soviet Capitalist on 08.03.17 at 7:47 pm

Is it true that prices are 18% up from july 2016?

No. GTA average up 5%, which will likely be erased in a month or two. After inflation and buying/selling the average is already negative. — Garth

#59 first on 08.03.17 at 7:50 pm

There rule here is
“It’s never time buy”

#60 Bonhomme Carnaval on 08.03.17 at 7:51 pm

@ #22 In Correct on 08.03.17 at 6:10 pm

A handful of high-end, luxury nabes in the 514 are trending at +5% annual (Wesmount & Town of Mount Royal).

Many ‘Reduced Price’ signs in the 450 condo market. The Laval condo market is ripe with deals. In Brossard, builders are offering upgrades like they’re going out of style!

Most of 418 is in negative territory when financing, property taxes, school taxes, water taxes, and maintenance & upkeep are factored it.

@ #30 In Correct on 08.03.17 at 6:35 pm

You’re ignorant about Canada’s second most populous province, and the cradle of Western Civilization.

#61 Ian on 08.03.17 at 7:52 pm

My favourite part of all this the Ontario and federal Liberals are going to OWN this donkey festival!!! Couldn’t be happier. Toodaloo Wynne in 18 and the snowboarder / nightclub bouncer / selfie stick in 19. So beautiful it makes me cry.

#62 Milton's Got Ringworm on 08.03.17 at 8:01 pm

I have noticed many Audi drivers writhing in pain lately. Shifting nervously in their pleather seats, wondering if that’s the REPO man behind them at the lights! Oh the horror as they squirm and scream, “help, help the party is over and I spent all my dough on Mattamy homes in Milton overlooking the garbage dump. I bought ten on spec and now they are vacant. Ahh the horror, why did I think buying up a slew of houses in the soulless suburb of Milton was such a good idea? I feel like the particle board and 25 oz carpet is suffocating me. Not even the aluminum siding with faux brick accents are easing my misery. Tony the Gino, please come to all my open houses and please buy something. I promis I’ll give you a deal. Mike, (aka the filthy real estate agent) the one who thinks all Canadians are wealthy, please come and buy one of my 10 homes. Four Finger Watson, you dufus, please come and buy something, homes always go up. Please, please I am a shyster just trying to get by.

#63 Balmuto on 08.03.17 at 8:08 pm

49 Mark on 08.03.17 at 7:18 pm

“Teranet bizarrely thinks (according to that chart of the Ternate HPI) that house prices went down between 2012 and 2013. Couldn’t be anything further from the truth! When in fact 2012-2013 was probably one of the best periods on record, inviting of Minister Flaherty’s CMHC subprime crackdown.”

That’s not what the Teranet chart shows. Have a look again. It shows that house prices continued to go up in 2012 but at a slower rate than the previous year. That’s not the same thing as a decline in prices.

#64 For those about to flop... on 08.03.17 at 8:08 pm

at 2:43 pm
“for those about to flop, we salute you”.

– re brighouse – yes just sold. 3.0m

who the flop would want to live in godforsaken rmd? shoot me first.

according to the o-fish-awl system last sale was in 2015 for just under that. 2.95ish

so a luxury condo in sad, flat richmond, that prob went from brand new to used and soiled, with a new 15% tax added, didn’t go up or down over a two year period. too bad for some guy in guangzou. oh well.

ok, you found a weak spot. does that cancel out the fact that decent, finished, sfh in east van are still at/over 2m, way way up over two years ago?

don’t see then going down significantly without another major global crisis.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

501- 5131 Brighouse Way, Richmond

Dec 6:$3,990,000
Jun 10: $3,850,000
Change: – 140000.00 -4%

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/5131-brighouse-way/501

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBLMkI4Vg==

//////////////////////////

Hey Broadway,so I have it marked down as a previous buy for 3.13m.

So after expenses roughly a 300k loss.

A million dollars less than original ask.

The thing I noticed about this case and another in the same building, is that while everyone else’s assessment last year romped ahead these guy’s actually went backwards by 10k.

Spending 3 million dollars so everyone can look down on you out of the tower at you relaxing on your private patio.

How Hollywood.

Might as well gone to the pet store and bought a fishbowl…

M43BC

#65 Cheekmonster on 08.03.17 at 8:11 pm

April was 6% and June 8% … so July is only 3% more? Is the avalanche slowing down?

Math is hard, no? — Garth

#66 Freedom First on 08.03.17 at 8:11 pm

The world and all international financial watchdogs agencies have been warning Canada/Canadians about their red light debt levels.

I find this interesting, as all of the recent housing busts in the world, plus the other housing busts I have witnessed in my life time, I have yet to witness a soft landing. All countries tend to use the term housing collapse.

Reminds me of a friend asking me if I would ever buy again. I said only if I was unable to say no.

#1
Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics
Its my life

#67 Milton's Got Warts on 08.03.17 at 8:12 pm

I’m thrashing about, decimated by my wretchedness. I am a filthy, no good shyster real estate agent, wiggling in financial horror. They told me the dump site would attract the foreigners? They said, everyone wants plywood houses with beige interiors. They said, no one wants more than 32 feet, postage stamp size lots. They said, that houses that all look the same were hip. They lied, they lied, now the twisting and squirming can’t ease my pain. What will I do? They said houses always go up? My cat even urinated on my realtor Liscence trying to say – you’re washed up, thankfully my high school diploma, my mom got laminated, so the urine just beaded off. My days of peddling shyster lies seems to be coming to an end, I guess I will have to go back to Brampton now :-( and live in my mom’s basement. Goodbye Milton, you filthy animal.

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.17 at 8:15 pm

Like the man sez.
Happy Happy Housing Crash everyone!

#69 I'm The Looser That Bought A Townhouse In Milton for 640,000 on 08.03.17 at 8:19 pm

Man, I’m such an idiot. I bought a vacant townhome in Milton, thinking I snagged a deal, but an identical one down the street just lowered their price to 629. Man I’m such an idiot. I thought the dump close by made this area more desirable. I thought all the truck traffic on Termaine Road from the 400 acre CN rail depot was a selling feature. Man I’m such a looser. Tony the Gino, please come down from Woodbridge and buy this home, I’ll give it to you at cost. We have plenty of Kraft Dinner here for you at the local No Frills, make it just like Nona use to. Please, Tony, you’re my last hope.

#70 OttawaMike on 08.03.17 at 8:25 pm

No price drop evident in my central west Ottawa hood.

Listing prices have been rising consistently over the past year but I will let you know if it ever jives with your blog schtick of declining real estate prices. We have been treading water on the Ottawa market for 3 years so the chances of a significant correction are slim.

#71 Louise on 08.03.17 at 8:26 pm

Very difficult to understand Calgarys real estate prices. No real new jobs. Oil prices down. But not really seeing a huge decline in prices. Any insight Garth? Sitting and waiting….

#72 vulcan without ears on 08.03.17 at 8:28 pm

And now the money from Vancouver and toronto will flood montreal. Asians discover a very cheap real estate market to their amazement for such a quality of life.

#73 Oh Happy Day on 08.03.17 at 8:37 pm

Happy Happy Super Duper Happy Housing Crash my GTA friends! I want to make a personal shout out, to all my pickled in debt bros in Milton. Did you blog dogs know that today is Happy Aluminum Siding Day in Milton? Yeah, come on down to the Halton Dumpsite, for some free beer (just kidding) the beer is considered too flammable next to the methan gas pipes, but bring Orange juice and the kids and let’s party like its 1989-90!

Tony, the Gino even you’re invited, you can even throw down some low ball offers, many will be accepted! They will have many agents standing by ready to take all of your offers. People in Vancouver, you’re invited too, we’ll take your “the market is rebounding” mind frame and apply it to our lovely homes!

Special shout out to happy housing crash guy, we’d love to see you down by the dump site for some special high fives!

#74 ANON on 08.03.17 at 8:44 pm

New Delusia and Delusia are toast, but it’s not too late to sell in other markets. This is it, folks. Act.

#75 SoggyShorts on 08.03.17 at 8:46 pm

#14 Travis Bickle on 08.03.17 at 5:56 pm
Paying $360,000 in damages … for what?!? Should we not be allowed to change our minds?
**********************************
What if the store you bought your honey from only had 1 jar ever. You buy it, and then 5-6 other customers get turned away because there is no more honey. The store owner is happy, and decides to close up shop– but then you walk in asking for your money back?
Reneging on a contract to buy a house is NOT the same as returning an idiotic purchase at a store.

#76 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.03.17 at 8:47 pm

You dirty lying realtor shill shysters should suffer for a thousand years. You do realize you evil shyster monsters advised buyers to wave all conditions? You shysters dont have the education to advise someone to biggie size their order. you dirty shysters dont even have a high school diploma. When I hear you shysters say “im a professional . I had six weeks training”. really? you guys are professionals? Since when is a high school drop out a professional? you idiots financially ruined people’s lives and our economy. You shysters should suffer for a thousand years.

#77 Axehead on 08.03.17 at 8:48 pm

Watch for it. Oh wait, it’s already here! BANKRUPTCY

#78 Realtor Scammer on 08.03.17 at 8:57 pm

66 Richmond st in Richmond Hill fell through beginning of June after selling for 1.6 million beginning of April. It was listed for 1.5 million.

Owner has resisted now for 1.6 million four months later…Haha haha!!! Good Luck! Another house (much nicer) a few doors down sold for 1.3 1 month ago. Did the greedy owner get the memo??????

#79 Andrew Woburn on 08.03.17 at 9:01 pm

Travis must be one of those entitled Millennials we keep reading about. I didn’t win but I still want a prize.

It’s clear from some of the comments that many people have escaped having to learn much about the insolvency process. That could be about to change.

The reason you can return your unwanted honey is customer relations policy not contract law. Timothy Eaton was one of the first to figure out that letting people return stuff was worth at as a way to keep their future business. Doesn’t work with one-off house sales.

Courts don’t usually care about why you went bankrupt. You went bankrupt because you couldn’t pay your bills and a creditor petitioned you into bankruptcy. Its all about how much you have in assets to repay the creditors. Saying you didn’t know your house price could go down won’t even get you a tiny violin. You can keep maybe your clothes, your Hello Kitty clock and $5 grand or so.

The good news is once you have been shredded, that the end of it in terms of payment. However good luck on getting any more debt for a long time. You could file a consumer proposal and hope to reduce your overall debt total but to make that work its got to be worth more to the creditors than just putting you in the barrel right away. If you have no real assets and a decent job, it might work.

Good luck if your folks co-guaranteed the mortgage. They will pay now and you will “pay” forever.

I expect a lot of debtors will leave Canada rather than face the music. That’s what brought a lot of our ancestors to “the Colonies” in the first place.

#80 Smoking Man on 08.03.17 at 9:02 pm

The most important job report in a while out tomorrow.

#81 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.03.17 at 9:02 pm

the government has to end realtors as it exists today. open up MLS. Open Up this shyster industry https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2017/08/02/richmond-hill-real-estate-brokerage-fined-250000-for-mishandling-trust-accounts.html

#82 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 08.03.17 at 9:04 pm

It’s just a blip in the road. A pothole on the radar. No big hairy deal. Folks will soon ignore the scare mongers and nay sayers just like in Vancouver which is on fire again.Wake up and smell the Beaver folks. Prices are never going back to where the average family income can afford a house in Tronna or Vancouver.

#83 Mayor of Milton on 08.03.17 at 9:07 pm

Hello Kind Readers,

As the Mayor of Mattamy, I mean Milton, I would like to apologize in advance for all the mean Milton bashing that is going on here. I would like to personally thank all those well educated pro-housing “blog dogs” on this site that have assured you, buying a home in Milton is a wise financial decision, and even though sometimes houses don’t always go up, there is no shame in owning a home that has no equity. In fact we actively encourage you to pour your life savings into Milton real estate, equity, we believe, is highly over rated! In fact being house poor is the new way to be and those renters with lots of money in their banks are just jealous of your laminate countertops, single car garage and carpeted stair case. While those renters are socking away money and investing, you could be here in Milton, driving a Kia Mini Van, with those cute family stickers on the back. You could be eating at greasy dives and mingling at the local Walmart with other depressed, I mean savvy, future real estate moguls. And yes, we take pride in our different holidays in Milton, council met and we liked the idea of Happy Aluminum Siding Day, but what the other Milton basher poster forgot to mention is all of our other special days, like, Happy Halton Waste Dump Day, where you get free admissions to the dump grounds, which are very lovely in the fall. We also have, Happy We Don’t Have Any Culture Day, because being boring is inclusive. We also have, We Like You Paying A Lot of House Taxes Day, because 32 feet means something here in Milton and on and on. So please, Tony, Watson, Honest Realtor, Mike and even Kevin Li (although no one has heard from him lately) and all those delusional Vancouver people, come down to Milton, give us a try, we will be happy to accept any reasonable offers on are over 1500 homes for sale. Don’t miss out on this “once in a lifetime opportunity” to have negative equity for years and years to come!

#84 Andrew Woburn on 08.03.17 at 9:07 pm

Further note to T2 on the proposed tax war on professionals.

“U.S. Faces Looming Shortage Of Primary Care Physicians”

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2017/08/02/primary-care-shortage/

#85 Rifles on 08.03.17 at 9:12 pm

“Rest assured, this will spread to other markets, from Halifax to Ottawa, Hamilton, London, the flat places, Victoria and YVR. ”

Halifax? C’mon! Back off.

Meanwhile the idea that this will spread to Vancouver, at least to the west side, with its tenacious, resilient, fund flows is a nonsense.

Garth, I fear you are leaning in to this correction a bit too hard.

Westside YVR sales down 31% and listings (detached) up 83%. Last month 90% of listings did not sell. Facts. — Garth

#86 I think 4 Fingers has a few up his Bum! on 08.03.17 at 9:15 pm

Are your serious man, take your fingers out of your bum and realize that the crap your peddling, no one but rich Mike believes.

Happy Happy . . .Oh Happy Housing Crash Day!!!!

You Shyster Realtard!

#87 Andrew Woburn on 08.03.17 at 9:17 pm

I wonder how long before someone launches a class-action suit against TREB for misleading statements. If this were the Excited States, I’d guess about a month. Here I’m not so sure. WUL? Anyone else with legal knowledge?

#88 Gasbag Boomer on 08.03.17 at 9:22 pm

Other than Smokie, there’s a lot of weird people on this blog.

#89 A Love Poem on 08.03.17 at 9:25 pm

A
Thousand
Deaths. . .

Wiggling, squirming, delving
In
To
pAIN.

I am
A
sYSTEr
real estate, high school drop out.

My Audi
my Audi
no no no
Dont
You
Take
It!

#90 Wait There on 08.03.17 at 9:33 pm

#14. Returning stuff that is used, sample and not resaleable is not ethical. It drives up the cost for everybody and kills small businessmen who cannot dump it back to the mfr like Walmart and Costco does. These added costs are then forwarded to the smaller retailers in higher costs. Costco and Walmart has spoiled you rotten.

#91 Rifles on 08.03.17 at 9:34 pm

“Westside YVR sales down 31% and listings (detached) up 83%. Last month 90% of listings did not sell. Facts. — Garth”

I hear you, but prices remain resilient (houses flat, condos priapic http://business.financialpost.com/business/vancouver-housing-market-turning-into-tale-of-two-cities-prices-of-detached-homes-flat-but-condos-rising/wcm/680c28a5-649f-4f73-bb21-b8af304207ef) and one month does not a trend make – especially after the run higher we have seen. My choice of euphemism is “consolidation”.

No one would be more pleased to see such a correction than I but it is too early to start swinging the pompoms.

#92 Pete from St. Cesaire on 08.03.17 at 9:36 pm

what is the reason that a bubble will not start/continue here(QUEBEC)?
——————————————————–
Quebecers have a different mindset; joie de vivre NOT joie d’avoir un maison. Many Quebecers move every year, it’s part of the culture. Home ownership is lower in Quebec. Places like Westmount continue to rise but it’s not a bubble because it’s one of the only truly elite neighbourhoods in the country and the Victorian Mansions there will always attract the elite and if any community in the country is truly worthy of people spending millions on a home, Westmount is it. Bubbles exist but they’re very local, like the lakeside town of Ayer’s Cliff. Yuppies/Muppies and Woppies (well off older people) have been buying it up for 15 years now but when the economy falls they will be selling their cottages and prices will decline quickly again. The few wealthy old families who built the few lavish homes there (which brought the attention of the newcomers) have mostly faded away.

#93 Andrew Woburn on 08.03.17 at 9:37 pm

Rifles on 08.03.17 at 9:12 pm

Meanwhile the idea that this will spread to Vancouver, at least to the west side, with its tenacious, resilient, fund flows is a nonsense.
—————————–

It is said that patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel. No, not you, Donald. So maybe Chinese dudes are the last refuge of the GTA realtor community.

If these wealthy foreigners are billionaires paying inconsequential amounts for an amusing lifestyle purchase, maybe. If they are average foreign business owners parking their money to preserve it, not so much. Chinese buyers are not notably stupid. Most are not scammers but people who worked hard for their money and value it just as much as you do. They won’t reach for a falling knife. There’s lots of safer places to park your money now than Vancouver. Besides weren’t they all supposed to be flocking to TO right now?

If you wanted to make an argument that foreign money might cushion high end properties, I could see it. There just aren’t enough super wealthy Chinese dudes to save the rest of the market.

#94 ANON on 08.03.17 at 9:40 pm

Sorry, forgot the obligatory: “Oh, and someone bring a bigger searchlight and let’s form some searching parties to look for those 17% lost since 90 days ago! Stat”
:)

#95 Honest Realtor on 08.03.17 at 9:43 pm

The housing crash psychopath will be posting only sporadically tonight. He’s busy running around at the cancer hospital, laughing at those about to die.

Such a humane fellow……..

#96 Bonhomme Carnaval on 08.03.17 at 9:46 pm

@ #61 Ian on 08.03.17 at 7:52 pm

Wynne is expected to lose in 2018.

T2 will conceivably lead a minority government in 2019.

@ #72 vulcan without ears on 08.03.17 at 8:28 pm

Indeed. They’re more than welcome!

Great Colleges, Universities, arts, culture, in both official languages.

Not to mention, gastronomy and entertainment for all tastes.

Lastly, a three bedroom Tudor on an 5,000 sq. ft. lot on a tree-lined street, biking distance to Mount Royal, for the price of a shanty-semi in Roncesvalles Village. Or a Regal 2 bedroom flat, near Westmount Park, for the same rent as a 1 bedroom shoe-box in Liberty Village.

#97 TOrenter on 08.03.17 at 9:48 pm

I think it’s insane that we don’t have data. Why do we get updates/ “news” about real estate from the boards? It’s like asking a wolf to tell us about the sheep. And the newspapers have a conflict of interest as they are in the business of selling ads to developers. The whole system lacks transparency, monitoring and enforcing or the little rules we do have. And the CMHC is the sham that holds it all together. Down with CMHC. Up with some data monitoring and reporting from an impartial source. Blah.
——————-
YES!
I made a request to Mr. GT to take on this and start a movement.
Somebody got to demand a reform to this rigged system and now is the time. People are starting to understand that they been had by shyster agents and their bosses.
Common GT, get on one of those shows you like so much and say something.
If not you, who??

#98 For those about to flop... on 08.03.17 at 9:49 pm

Can a Honest Realtor or even a Dishonest one tell me what happened with this case…

M43BC

2160 Mathers Avenue, West Vancouver paid 3 m in May 2016 sold or removed by August 2

Oct 26:$3,685,000
Feb 6: $3,350,000
Change: – 335000.00 -9%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=2160%20Mathers%20Avenue,%20West%20Vancouver&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOTlDRQ==

#99 Wrk.dover on 08.03.17 at 9:52 pm

Due to Ukraine pandering, Harper had put trade sanctions on Russia, decimating the fur industry in SW Nova. Feed a mink fish scrap for $39 a year plus labour and overhead, then sell for $15, on a good day. I know a rancher entering bank-robbed-cy proceedings, and his truck in arrears won’t start. (On-Star disabled?) We think so.

Watch for realitors Audis To sit lifeless, where parked very soon…How cool are old cars now?

#100 Dee on 08.03.17 at 9:57 pm

Freedom First is without a doubt my favourite poster on here. No joke. It’s like Rick from Rick & Morty was posting about gta re. Always deep and funny.

On another note, lets set up another ice cream meet up at G’s spot. Someone take the lead

#101 Eastender on 08.03.17 at 10:00 pm

@ Garth..
Or you can rent, cut your cash flow, save, invest and have a mortgage-free life. Stop your house-pimping. It’s old. — Garth..
————————————————————-
I come to your blog because I like some ideas, but not this that renting is better than owing a house (paid off)….I’ll rather have a house paid off then invest in stocks generating 6-7% ROI…Paid off house is as liquid as anything…

Apparently not. — Garth

#102 Millmech on 08.03.17 at 10:00 pm

#82
I guess you didn’t get the memo,the smoke is from the forest fires in the interior not the housing market!

#103 paulo on 08.03.17 at 10:00 pm

#25 #26 in response to your question:

if a individual declares bankruptcy (federal court rules)
a trustee is assigned to collect the debtors assets if any
for distribution to the creditors

a first time bankrupt individual is given a automatic discharge 9 months from the date of assignment

as a rule the debtor is released from all obligations with the only exception being child support arrears, student loans and any debt incurred by way of criminal fraud .

a agreement of purchase/sale becomes null and void

depending on the assets the debtor has or has not you may receive a distribution from the trustee. of course if there are no assets as the case in most personal bankruptcy cases you will likely receive nothing.

one cautionary note to would be bankruptcy candidates
bankruptcy falls under the jurisdiction of the federal supreme court, you are required to disclose any transfer of property or assets for a period of 1 year prior to making a assignment into bankruptcy, and make no mistake the trustee will uncover any documented transfers, so just remember the bankruptcy act is there to give honest individuals a second chance. if you are caught abusing the act the penalties are serious you will go directly to jail.

#104 Mark on 08.03.17 at 10:01 pm

“That’s not what the Teranet chart shows. Have a look again. It shows that house prices continued to go up in 2012 but at a slower rate than the previous year. That’s not the same thing as a decline in prices.”

Glad you caught that. There was an extreme acceleration in prices 2012-2013 which caused the Minister of Finance to tighten down at the CMHC. This only appears to show in the Teranet data 3-4 years later, which is consistent with the sort of lag you probably have in the Teranet HPI.

If you understand the methodology used by Teranet, you’d realize that its impossible for the Teranet HPI to reflect real-time or near-real time change.

#105 Dr. Talc on 08.03.17 at 10:04 pm

the stress test is a garden variety fraud
it is meant to test the gullibility of millennials
market changes are not organic or market or fundamentals driven
therefore, not predictable
in other words if it’s not market driven, the demand is still there but being stifled by banks and governments
who are the real problem

#106 For those about to flop... on 08.03.17 at 10:04 pm

Are these guys just taking a break after going at it for six months or did it sell…

M43BC

1046 MILLSTREAM RD WEST VANCOUVER paid 4.32

Jan 25:$4,880,000
May 4: $4,780,000
Change: – 100000.00 -2%

1046 MILLSTREAM RD WEST VANCOUVER
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOUJLOQ==

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=1046%20Millstream%20Road,%20West%20Vancouver&filter=1

#107 T-Rev on 08.03.17 at 10:05 pm

G-man, any hard stats on the number of breach of contracts/failed closes vs historical? Anecdotal accounts are nice and all, but those same anecdotal observers where the ones claiming HAM was hovering up Vancouver and Southern Ontario.

Not sure who would or could track this number, but…pretty sure TREB would have that figure, even if they won’t release it. Agents have to disclose when conditions come off a contract so it can be reported as a sale, I’m sure they also have to report if that deal doesn’t close. I know you’ve got a mole or two on the inside, put ’em to work and get those numbers. It’d be very telling.

#108 GTA or Bust on 08.03.17 at 10:09 pm

Clearly that the market’s cascading towards a bottom not yet in sight. As the real estate boss said when releasing the sour stats, it ain’t the result of a foreign buyer’s tax, but rather because the locals – who thought houses could never falter – are freaking out.

———

The market in the GTA only changed ONCE the provincial government introduced the 16 point fair housing plan that targeted foreign buyers and domestic speculators. Sales and prices started their drop immediately after that plan came into effect and before the July rate increase – which no one expected.

Eerily similar to Vancouver where sales ‘plunged’ after the implementation of the BC Foreign Buyers Tax….of course the sales never translated into real price declines. And after 6 months, foreign buyers adjusted to the tax as the cost of doing business and the percentage of foreign buyers is back up.

I would wait 6 months before sounding the death knell for the GTA market. After all, the Vancouver market was supposed to be toast by now after the ‘collapsing sales’ following the foreign buyers tax.

I think everyone can see the connection…

#109 Toronto1 on 08.03.17 at 10:09 pm

Looks like buyers in the GTA are on strike!

The RE hype machine is out in full force. I find it hilarous after watchinebthe US debacle, that they are using the snae playbook, almost verbatim. Next month it will rebound etc…

Truth is that suits have already decided were the end game is and its a revision to mean…..

Truth is if buyers continue to strike, the market will tank in spectacular fashion even sooner….

Fall will be very ugly, realization will hit sellers that if they hold off prices will be lower in 2019, then you will see listings explode with sales at sub 5000 units month over month

#110 Mark on 08.03.17 at 10:11 pm

” wonder how long before someone launches a class-action suit against TREB for misleading statements. “

I’m not aware of the TREB or any RE board making misleading statements. However, by the time their statements make it to the media, without the sort of critical analysis and dissenting opinion that used to be sought by good journalists, the average reader, probably a homeowner him/herself, is left to believe that the ‘average transaction price’ is actually something they can just multiply the price of their own house by. To come up with its ‘current value’. Not a mention of the sales mix (and its rapid shift) being the culprit for example. Not a mention of the 2013 apex in house prices in the GVR/GTA. Mostly just sell-side propaganda including the fomented theory that foreign participants are present in Canada’s RE market in significant numbers which is not supported by any available evidence.

I probably have thousands of comments concerning the Canadian RE market on this blog and elsewhere, and I don’t think once I’ve called a RE board dishonest. Simply no reason to, no evidence of such. They might not readily provide the complete and whole truth at times, but that’s quite a different matter than dishonesty.

BTW, anyone have any comments about Ross Kay’s claim on TalkDigitalNetwork that a Canadian Realtor cannot enter into an agreement to be compensated for negotiating a *lower* house price than list? Ross Kay claims that such arrangements are “illegal”. I am still interested in independent verification of such.

#111 Grace on 08.03.17 at 10:14 pm

All wards of Toronto except two still show price gains year-over-year.

If we can use the U.S as a guide, it will take about 18 months for prices to move down significantly year-over-year in the “better areas” of Toronto.

#112 HHCE's Ever Tightening Thong on 08.03.17 at 10:16 pm

Help this poor bugger, Garth. We are all convinced he is going to vaporize by the next post. Perhaps a subscription to Match.com. Millennial renter, below average net worth, high testosterone, obsessive, compulsive, from Milton (where ever that is), etc.

#113 the ryguy on 08.03.17 at 10:21 pm

Man there is a lot of hatred on here for realtors.

I would think that in real life I would get along with most greaterfool readers, but this realtor hate is silly.

If you buy something from a SALESPERSON..you are stuck with the purchase. You all have internet access, do your own research and find out what the assets are worth.

All that being said…burn baby burn… Im still living in Edmonton (waiting for that kelowna bubble to pop), and Ive seen a huge drop in prices. If I had any desire to buy a house I would go to the builders with an approved mortgage and ask for the moon..it wouldn’t be long before I got it.

#114 dakkie on 08.03.17 at 10:22 pm

Toronto Housing Bubble Pops. “Genuine Fear” of Price Collapse
http://investmentwatchblog.com/toronto-housing-bubble-pops-genuine-fear-of-price-collapse/

#115 NoName on 08.03.17 at 10:31 pm

#97 the ryguy on 08.03.17 at 10:21 pm

Small question for you, what is bader out or those two: lying by omission, or lying by commission?

#116 World Of Antiques on 08.03.17 at 10:31 pm

British Columbia’s new government, which takes office in September, will likely do far more to make housing affordable. He explained why in his recent article:

They will introduce a property levy on owners who don’t file an income tax return in British Columbia. The pre-sale foreign-buyer tax loophole will be closed. Using a bare trust to avoid property transfer tax will be closed. The sub-prime mortgage scheme will be halted. The foreign-buyer tax could be doubled to 30 per cent and implemented province-wide.
Good by Vancouver!

#117 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.03.17 at 10:33 pm

#95 Honest Realtor

im laughing at all the out of work Realtors who are desperate for money . You shysters lie for money and continue to lie at the undeniable facts that this RE market is crashing hard.This is why you are hated around the world. You lie and even lack an education. you don’t have the education to help people cross the street. Can you imagine how many children would be hurt everyday if realtors where crossing guards? Hurry Kids you better cross the street now or never. You hurt people financially everyday telling people to buy at the peak and now during a crash . Whoever bought at the peak lost 1/5 of their biggest investment in three months. dirty shysters.

#118 YVR update on 08.03.17 at 10:40 pm

#116 World Of Antiques on 08.03.17 at 10:31 pm
British Columbia’s new government, which takes office in September, will likely do far more to make housing affordable. He explained why in his recent article:

They will introduce a property levy on owners who don’t file an income tax return in British Columbia. The pre-sale foreign-buyer tax loophole will be closed. Using a bare trust to avoid property transfer tax will be closed. The sub-prime mortgage scheme will be halted. The foreign-buyer tax could be doubled to 30 per cent and implemented province-wide.
Good by Vancouver!

——

You are so behind. The new gov has backtracked on any housing changes. Prices of sub $1.5 million properties at record levels.

Unbelievable how govs can say one thing to get elected and then not do anything but ‘study’ the situation.

#119 young & foolish on 08.03.17 at 10:42 pm

Everybody waiting for the “bubble to pop” … why? If you don’t believe RE is worthwhile, then why do you care if prices go up or down?

#120 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.03.17 at 10:43 pm

#89 A Love Poem

LOL. great Poem. last post for a few days. Happy empty open house long weekend everyone! :-)

#121 Old Ron the Realtor on 08.03.17 at 10:45 pm

@ HONEST REALTOR # 95.

Come on man as one registrant to another, you have to admit his line about “Equity being overrated” was pretty funny.

We have plenty of real problems, and Happy isn’t one of them.

#122 45north on 08.03.17 at 10:46 pm

40 something: I have a bbq with the ‘northern herd’ (friends living stoufville area) in a few weeks, and half of them work in the RE sector – agents, REIT companies, construction, etc. Many of them teased, judged, questioned our family for renting these past years. Let’s see what they got to say this time!

let’s talk survival: don’t bring up real estate! bring some extra beer, micro-brewery, talk it up. Sounds like Justin Altmann is an endless source of conversion:

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/07/03/stouffville-residents-raise-alarm-over-csi-style-wall.html

be a survivor

#123 young & foolish on 08.03.17 at 10:46 pm

“You hurt people financially everyday telling people to buy at the peak and now during a crash . Whoever bought at the peak lost 1/5 of their biggest investment in three months. dirty shysters.”

Ouch! …. Sounds like somebody bought high and now feels that they were wronged!

#124 For those about to flop... on 08.03.17 at 10:48 pm

Can Rick Springfield tell me how much this house went for?

If he is too busy maybe I will ask Jessie’s Girl…

M43BC

3140 Springfield Drive, Richmond paid 1.85 sold or removed by August 2

Dec 21:$2,280,000
Feb 20: $1,990,000
Change: – 290000.00 -13%%.

1.85 April 2016 7.5%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=3140%20Springfield%20Drive,%20Richmond&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1WFIxSA==

#125 Glenn Taylor on 08.03.17 at 10:49 pm

It seems to me that nothing less than a 50% drop in RE prices, if not more, will restore prices in TO and Van to something approaching affordable/fair value.

#126 Smoking Man on 08.03.17 at 10:59 pm

#88 Gasbag Boomer on 08.03.17 at 9:22 pm
Other than Smokie, there’s a lot of weird people on this blog.
…….

Did you buy anything at my garage sale? Bozze has fryed my short term memory.

#127 Raging Ranter on 08.03.17 at 11:00 pm

Young & foolish, if you think housing is such a great “investment” then why are you wasting your time trying to convince a bunch of bears that they are wrong? Shouldn’t you be out there kicking ass and scoping out your next “income property”? Or does Gramps not allow you to play with real money yet?

#128 DON on 08.03.17 at 11:03 pm

#95 Honest Realtor on 08.03.17 at 9:43 pm

The housing crash psychopath will be posting only sporadically tonight. He’s busy running around at the cancer hospital, laughing at those about to die.

Such a humane fellow……..
***************************

Is he wrong? He is talking about dishonest realtors ad what they have been doing. If you are ‘honest’ you should not have a problem with facts.

And your honest ethics allow you to lie and put words into his mouth mentioning the cancer thing. Yes he is off the wall, but he is not lying like you are…Honestly. Have you no shame.

#129 Ned Flanders on 08.03.17 at 11:13 pm

Full moon in blogdog land tonight, more crazies than usual.

I’m usually the biggest housing bear in the room but that Happy Housing Crash Everyone guy must be either demented or 12 years of age, possibly both!

Chill out dude, there’s more to life than sitting in your Moms basement roasting idiot realtors on a blog.

Give pornhub a shot, as [email protected] says, you’ll be glad you made the switch!

#130 steerage steward on 08.03.17 at 11:15 pm

Looking forward to the comeuppance as much as anyone, but the post failed to mention Toronto prices year over year are up 5%. Not exactly a “disaster”.

As Garth has mentioned, housing prices are sticky. Anyone that buys into this market is still the greatest fool, but it may take a while for that to become clear to the average buyer.

#131 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.03.17 at 11:20 pm

#116 World Of Antiques on 08.03.17 at 10:31 pm
British Columbia’s new government, which takes office in September, will likely do far more to make housing affordable. He explained why in his recent article:

They will introduce a property levy on owners who don’t file an income tax return in British Columbia. The pre-sale foreign-buyer tax loophole will be closed. Using a bare trust to avoid property transfer tax will be closed. The sub-prime mortgage scheme will be halted. The foreign-buyer tax could be doubled to 30 per cent and implemented province-wide.
Good by Vancouver!
—————
There it is.
Why was that so hard to do, Christy Clark.
Houses for the people and not speculators.

#132 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.03.17 at 11:23 pm

Floppy.
Pink Houses for everyone.
John Mellencamp.

#133 cramar on 08.03.17 at 11:31 pm

On the CBC National this evening they were talking about the drop in Toronto RE. Not to worry was conclusion, likely just temporary like in Vancouver!

All RE is local, GT used to say. Not everywhere in Ontario is RE falling. Here in Leamington, the market for affordable SDH in my hood is screamingly hot! Last week, the house across the street just sold within 2 weeks at list (which everyone thought was overpriced.) First house in the hood to sell for over a quarter mil—$255k. Last year it would have sold for $200k if lucky. Two years ago $180k. Going forward, I don’t expect prices will drop, but level off at a little higher. Reason—where can you get 3 BR, brick bungalow with attached garage on a 200′ lot for a quarter mil? Most people in the GTA cannot conceive of such a thing.

#134 Price of purchase is everything on 08.03.17 at 11:32 pm

I feel really bad for the people who bought 2016. They lost but if they purchased anytime before that, it was probably one of the best investments ever made if you sold. They made good money. It’s all a matter of when you bought.

#135 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.03.17 at 11:35 pm

BC is burning and the Lower Mainland is covered in smoke.
I’m reading “The Grapes of Wrath” instead of the business news.

#136 Balmuto on 08.03.17 at 11:38 pm

#104 Mark on 08.03.17 at 10:01 pm
“If you understand the methodology used by Teranet, you’d realize that its impossible for the Teranet HPI to reflect real-time or near-real time change.”

I do understand the methodology but I’m not sure you do. You seem to think Teranet just takes the price return of a property over its holding period (average 7 years) and interpolates the monthly and annual return numbers of that property in a more or less linear fashion. In fact, it factors in price data of all the other properties that transacted within that period to impute the sub-period returns for every single property contained within its dataset. It’s a lot more sophisticated that you give it credit for.

#137 IHCTD9 on 08.03.17 at 11:39 pm

#14 Travis Bickle on 08.03.17 at 5:56 pm
Paying $360,000 in damages … for what?!? Should we not be allowed to change our minds? Last week I bought a ridiculously overpriced 18oz jar of “manuka” honey for $60 and when I got home, I realized it was a stupid thing to do (it would have been worth $60 had it instantly cured my bipolar disorder – it hadn’t). So, I went back to the store returned the honey and got my $60 back – reason I gave was “changed my mind”…
——

You can’t promise to not change your mind, and then change your mind. If no legally binding promises could be made, there would be no such thing as mortgages, and you’d be buying houses cash in advance.

Try that “changed my mind” thing with the CRA or your bank and see how that works out for you.

Buddy might have sold his house the same day to the next guy in line, buyer is liable for that loss if he/she backs out 100%.

#138 Lorne on 08.03.17 at 11:40 pm

#118 YVR update on 08.03.17 at 10:40 pm

#116 World Of Antiques on 08.03.17 at 10:31 pm
British Columbia’s new government, which takes office in September, will likely do far more to make housing affordable. He explained why in his recent article:

They will introduce a property levy on owners who don’t file an income tax return in British Columbia. The pre-sale foreign-buyer tax loophole will be closed. Using a bare trust to avoid property transfer tax will be closed. The sub-prime mortgage scheme will be halted. The foreign-buyer tax could be doubled to 30 per cent and implemented province-wide.
Good by Vancouver!

——

You are so behind. The new gov has backtracked on any housing changes. Prices of sub $1.5 million properties at record levels.

Unbelievable how govs can say one thing to get elected and then not do anything but ‘study’ the situation.
……
Yeh, they have been in power for 2 weeks and still haven’t done anything…can you believe it! They sure are taking a long time to make sure they get it right! You just might be surpised that they are actually going to enact many of the policies they promised during the election. The only thing propping the market up right now is Christy’s first time home ownership loan of $37 500, which has kept Condo King Bob Rennie busy….and will leave even more people regretting they jumped into the market! Watch for this to disappear real quickly!

#139 Volume Schmolume on 08.03.17 at 11:49 pm

#114 Dakkie

A lot of people freak out about -40% change in sales volume.
But seriously… volume does not dictate what happens to price.

As an illustration…
Take a look at the TSX trading of Royal Bank (RY) today.

https://finance.google.com/finance?q=TSE%3ARY

Today, a mere 1.16M shares changed hands.

Whereas on a normal day, 2.81M shares will change hands.

A devastating drop in sales! But does it affect the price?
Nope, the price of TSX:RY is the same as yesterday.

Sellers of RY will shrug it off if they can’t get their price.
Sellers of TO SFHs will shrug it off if they can’t get their price.
Only a subset of them will actually move down in price.

#140 Bobby on 08.03.17 at 11:51 pm

I’ve always believed only a fool would offer to buy a home, probably the biggest investment of one’s life, without any conditions.

I’ve always known that any realtor who suggests that one make an offer on a home without any conditions does not have their client’s best interest in mind.

This will not end well.

#141 Curious on 08.04.17 at 12:00 am

I sure hope this crash comes to Edmonton. The EREB keeps pumping up the numbers making everything here seem so cheap! The houses here have become UNaffordable for most families. $400K gets you an old house that requires a lot of updating. Fingers crossed a correction comes to Edmonton!

#142 DON on 08.04.17 at 12:16 am

#118 YVR update on 08.03.17 at 10:40 pm

#116 World Of Antiques on 08.03.17 at 10:31 pm
British Columbia’s new government, which takes office in September, will likely do far more to make housing affordable. He explained why in his recent article:

They will introduce a property levy on owners who don’t file an income tax return in British Columbia. The pre-sale foreign-buyer tax loophole will be closed. Using a bare trust to avoid property transfer tax will be closed. The sub-prime mortgage scheme will be halted. The foreign-buyer tax could be doubled to 30 per cent and implemented province-wide.
Good by Vancouver!

——

You are so behind. The new gov has backtracked on any housing changes. Prices of sub $1.5 million properties at record levels.

Unbelievable how govs can say one thing to get elected and then not do anything but ‘study’ the situation.
***********

I can’t imagine after the BC Liberal Reign of Corruption you would be surprised by what politicians say or do for self interest. But don’t let the facts get in your way or the news that the NEW government is looking at all alternatives…it just came out today. Do you not look for the truth or are you simply blinded by ideology. Patient Man!

#143 DON on 08.04.17 at 12:23 am

#119 young & foolish on 08.03.17 at 10:42 pm

Everybody waiting for the “bubble to pop” … why? If you don’t believe RE is worthwhile, then why do you care if prices go up or down?
********
How about you answer your own question. Why the collective we would care if prices go down or up – assume no skin in the game? Why would someone care? Have you seen a bubble before and the downturn?

#144 bellend on 08.04.17 at 12:36 am

waiting waiting…
http://www.forexlive.com/news/!/vancouver-house-prices-are-back-on-the-march-20170802

#145 NoName on 08.04.17 at 12:42 am

#103 paulo on 08.03.17 at 10:00 pm

if you are caught abusing the act the penalties are serious you will go directly to jail.

—-

noone is going to jail.

https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/br03770.html#tbl1

#146 Dolce Vita on 08.04.17 at 1:03 am

Well Garth, you just coined a new acronym that brings with it a double entendre from Latin languages:

FOGO

Fear of Getting Out

I know, more important matters today, but for the record…credit given to you.

#147 the ryguy on 08.04.17 at 1:07 am

#115 no name – Nice pun :)

Lying either way is wrong. I was in sales for many years, I can honestly say I never lied to a client or a potential client. When I deal with folks in sales, you got one chance with me, once I sniff something I don’t like, Im never to return.

Based on my sales experience (which btw was artificial turf, so I was ALWAYS dealing with homeowners) most people can spot a fraud a mile away. My quotes were usually in the neighbourhood of $5k-$25k, and most people did a decent amount of research before I ever showed up. Im just saying I don’t think this is as much realtors fault as people make it out to be.

#148 Jessica on 08.04.17 at 1:15 am

Whole story:

“The buyer didn’t respond in time for the court to hear his side of the case, and retained his current legal counsel just days before the judgment.

He can apply to overturn the judgment, which he plans to do, his lawyer said.

“Our client is applying to set aside the default judgment, and he wants his day in court to be heard on the merits,” said Jasdeep Aujla.

… Even if the the legal case is settled, Morrison says collecting a payment as large as $300,000 could drag on for years.”

Anybody can win default judgement.

#149 Aw297 on 08.04.17 at 1:16 am

I’m drinking champagne. Been waiting for this for a very long time. The Globe can say whatever they want. It’s done, it’s over. There is no climbing back up the mountain, sorry for you sheep. Get your affairs in order if you bought in the last year and good luck.

#150 Joe2.0 on 08.04.17 at 1:29 am

Sell and come on up to The Sunshine Coast, you can get 2 or 3 houses for the price of one in Vancouver.
It’s a no brainer for the boomer$.

#151 Dolce Vita on 08.04.17 at 1:32 am

Who are you people from YVR saying prices stable, all is fine and quoting dailies that merely repost Realtor BS?

Below, go see your “stable” YVR market. Go see the price drop curve since Oct. 2016 – all negative. It’s death by a thousand cuts. Ponder the fact that price drops outnumber price increases by at least 2:1 and ongoing since Oct. 2016.

http://www.myrealtycheck.ca/

Oh, and the mythical Asian investors will not save you. This from Steve Saretsky, Owner of the VancityCondoGuide web site (he reckons this Chinese Gov. crackdown will take out 100% of them in YVR and elsewhere):

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-02/how-china-s-risk-crackdown-will-hit-manhattan-s-property-market?utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets

The only thing hot in YVR is Condo sales by 1st time buyers that are purchasing luxury Condos, per Ross Kay, that are pushing the average Condo price higher. None of these 1st time buyers interested in Town Home or Detached properties.

And per Flop, even Condos taking a dung kicking right now.

You must be Realtors and/or property owners with skin in the game. Wake up.

YVR RE Cult, fanatics beyond all reason.

#152 Aw297 on 08.04.17 at 1:37 am

Young and Foolish

Go read about 1990 and realize that a lot of people lost a lot of money back then. We learned a lesson that you may be about to learn, hopefully. Some of us didn’t recover until now, so pay attention.

#153 Tony on 08.04.17 at 1:52 am

Re: #107 T-Rev on 08.03.17 at 10:05 pm

I read it was 20 (twenty) percent of all sales but it didn’t mention since what month.

#154 Feareded on 08.04.17 at 2:11 am

Fear is a stronger emotion than greed, What happenen in Toronto will absolutely happen in Vancouver… maybe worse. The cracks are Appearing financing a lot harder to obtain….low inventory and yet still houses selling for under assessment and asking price, fall will be interesting

#155 Freedom First on 08.04.17 at 2:16 am

#All Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

For some morbid reason, Happy, your Posts continue to make me smile!

It’s like you found a whole new unique modern way of stating the wise old adage of “Buyer Beware”.

#156 Newcomer on 08.04.17 at 2:29 am

#82 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 08.03.17 at 9:04 pm
Prices are never going back to where the average family income can afford a house
——————

That’s is the very definition of the market price. You might want to read a little about how markets work. It’s kind of fun and it can help you in making financial decisions. You could do worse than starting with “Basic Economics.” (https://www.amazon.ca/Basic-Economics-3rd-Ed-Economy/dp/0465002609) but any basic primer would help.

#157 Tony on 08.04.17 at 3:46 am

I really did in-depth research on this one. Spent over 100 hours on research. The jobs report in America today should come in at exactly 226,000 jobs.

#158 JWD on 08.04.17 at 3:57 am

I’m the loser that bought a townhouse in Milton etc, Oh happy day, Mayor of Milton, A love poem…

Same guy ya? Love your work today – thanks for the laughs.

Happy aluminum siding day and we’re celebrating with free drinks down at the waste dump! Good humor :)

Looks like it’ll be just as exciting on the way down as it was on the way up.

#159 maxx on 08.04.17 at 6:18 am

“fear of not getting out” = FONGO.

“sell or lose out” = SOLO, as in, my gains are so low!

#160 Dan.t on 08.04.17 at 6:21 am

And you wonder why there is so much anger towards “shyster realturds”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/toronto-real-estate-market-picks-up-after-lull/article35861587/

That article reeks of desperation. But many of the herd will believe it.

Of course at the end, had to add, the older couple who downsized ( of course after getting 1.5 mil for a house they bought 30 years ago for 95k) just to scare enough people (millennials) into seeing Condo FOMO is real…”hurry buy a condo now, HAM is here and now it’s the boomer who want your Condo!!! Hurry!! BUY! PLEASE!”

Exactly, how is that allowed? Paid for Real estate puff piece. Starts right at the top and trickles down to the BS realtors who for years have been shadow flipping, cheating, lying, employing deceptive selling tactics, outright fraudulent marketing tactics and yet, they can self regulate.

I would even argue, withholding inventory but since there is no data, one can only speculate…but ask yourself how many realtors you know own multiple properties… or other Canadians for that matter.

You don’t think the real estate board knows how to use the media…they have done it for 14 years, convincing everyone that their POS 1974 rancher is worth 1.3 million. They have convince the masses, “buy real estate, it never goes down”…you know how often I heard that when I was in BC? Take a guess…if you guessed a lot, bingo.

Funny how the Real Estate Board gets a free pass to lie, cheat, steal, deceive, hide stats, etc… and this is typically a families biggest purchase in life and there is virtually no regulation or sorry, loosely enforced regulation in place and only shady stats or hard to find somewhat reliable statistics available?

Why can’t financial sector hide stock prices, previous close, ask, bid, volumes etc… can you imagine. But real estate can produce Franken numbers, advertise in paper anything they like and get “puff pieces” published (how much did that article cost I wonder). Remember the HAM fake news story in YVR years back? Nothing happened.

You know why, because 70% own houses, a huge percentage own multiple “investment” RE and no one wants the party to end.

Just like the NDP back peddling now in BC and YVR. Saw that coming. No one wants the party to end or at least be considered the reason for bursting the bubble.

Bet they will spew out the same liberal message, we will “fight the affordability crisis but we can’t have prices drop, can’t mess with peoples hard earned equity”.

I hope a crash in YVR starts soon and look forward to the happy housing crash guy cheering about BC prices crashing. I hope anyhow.

#161 Reality 1 on 08.04.17 at 6:22 am

reply to comment # 133 Cramar

Leamington – are you serious?

That backwater farming town (population of 25,595) as an indicator of anything economic is a bad joke at best.

GTA has about 6,000,000 population and had 6,000 transactions last month (and about 10,000 a month in 2016) in a diversified economy.

That is the entire housing stock in Leamington, a one industry town where , what, 15 houses sell a month in that tiny market.

Jeez, the denial is thick with this one.

#162 Dan.t on 08.04.17 at 6:30 am

#138 Lorne & DON

I hope you are right. I hope they keep their promises. I like John Horgan and am happy for BC that a new party has taken over. They have a huge mess to clean up!

#163 I type, therefore I am on 08.04.17 at 6:48 am

#152 Aw297 on 08.04.17 at 1:37 am
Young and Foolish

Go read about 1990 and realize that a lot of people lost a lot of money back then. We learned a lesson that you may be about to learn, hopefully .Some of us didn’t recover until now, so pay attention.


27 yrs to recover?

#164 maxx on 08.04.17 at 6:49 am

#14 Travis Bickle on 08.03.17 at 5:56 pm

Are you for real? You didn’t sign a contract when buying the honey – and laws regarding retail purchases are a tad different than for the acquisition of re.

“I changed my mind” !?! on a million+ -dollar purchase? Oh no, that shouldn’t have any consequences.

I despise greed as much as the next person, but anyone not fully switched on when faced with a contract of this magnitude ought to be in for a serious wake-up call.

Try picturing yourself as the seller.

#165 maxx on 08.04.17 at 6:54 am

#21 Tls on 08.03.17 at 6:08 pm

“………Everyone (99%) will be affected by this housing crash and we don’t know for how long.”

Some one heck of a lot more than others.

#166 nick on 08.04.17 at 7:02 am

TO MILTON GUY,

Also wanted to chime in here. I was literally in tears last night laughing at your posts. My wife thought i was drunk. Keep it up, well done.

#167 OttawaMike on 08.04.17 at 7:24 am

Shortage of inventory and bidding wars here. Even in the burbs. Even during summer.

Sorry Garth but I think you do a huge disservice to your readers here with your breathless crash meme.

This blog provides invaluable personal finance advice and you negate it with the constant drumbeat of housing crash.

Deny it all you want, but residential real estate everywhere will be a poor performer for an extended period of time. Given the big leverage most families have used to acquire this asset, it spells elevated risk. Containing risk is what correct investing is all about. — Garth

#168 Trumpocalypse2017 on 08.04.17 at 7:40 am

Exactly what I have been saying, people. It’s about to all hit the fan in Trump World.

And note this:

“4. His only remaining hope will be a 9/11-scale disaster or contrived war that he can exploit.”

Exactly!!!

https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2017/08/05/the-moment-when-trump-will-no-longer-be-a-diverting-reality-show-burman.html

WE ARE HEADING TO WAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Do not “relax” on this long weekend!

Stock up on food and fuel. Buy batteries. Upgrade your rural retreat.

Most will not survive what is about to come.

Be one of the few.

PREPARE.

#169 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.04.17 at 8:21 am

@#88 Gasbag Boomer
Dr Fartz sez
“Stop playing with matches after eating chili.”

Is that weird enough for you?

#170 Julia on 08.04.17 at 8:25 am

#25 bystander
“How would things play out when the buyer declares bankruptcy on a no-conditions deal?”
*************
I believe that if there is no judgment then the seller is out of luck. If there is a judgment then the seller is an unsecured creditor in the bankruptcy and would see $0 to a few cents on the dollar. The only liability that survives bankruptcy is fraud.

#171 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.04.17 at 8:26 am

@#95 Heartless Realtor
“He’s busy running around at the cancer hospital, laughing at those about to die.
Such a humane fellow……..

*******

You seem to be “winning” at the “disturbing hypothetical scenario” award….

Apparently “irony” isnt taught in the 6 week realtor course either.
Check that word out in the dictionary.
Its just past “integrity”

#172 Julia on 08.04.17 at 8:28 am

On BT Toronto this morning, a couple was interviewed being distraught stuck with 2 properties after their buyer could not close on the $120,000 over ask price. The buyer offered to close with a $35,000 reduction in price and they are not sure what to do. They apparently countered and are waiting to see what happens before the look at their other options. I would have taken it.

#173 cto on 08.04.17 at 8:28 am

#105 Dr. Talc
Re stress test fraud

“in other words if it’s not market driven, the demand is still there but being stifled by banks and governments
who are the real problem”

Right there doctor! and…we should also remove the Canadian Government influence of providing taxpayer funded CMHC insurance as well!!!

Free market playing field for all!!!

#174 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.04.17 at 8:35 am

@#129 Ned Flanders
“Give pornhub a shot, as [email protected] says, you’ll be glad you made the switch!”
*****
Speaking from personal experience Ned?
Gives a whole new meaning to your greeting when you always say,
“Hey diddly ho neighbor” to Homer and his wife Marge

#175 Sprawl on 08.04.17 at 8:40 am

Tell me it isn’t true! When Wynne’s Ontario Government announced its real estate changes. They also categorically stated, Supple & Demand had a role to play. Openingly encoraged 905 municipalities to pen more land to, corporate campaign rich farmland, for development. Even putting on the greenbelt on review for development.

The highways and bridges are in for Pickering’s new city of Seaton. Most likely a soul sucking stupid design of 70,000 townhouses. How can this in anyway be good for current citizens?

woof

#176 CJBob on 08.04.17 at 8:44 am

Anyone you deal with who earns their living at least partially from you is someone who’s advice you should take with a grain of salt.

Do you ask a barber if you need a haircut?

Do you accept your financial advisor’s mutual fund recommendations without looking at the fees and asking him/her about ETF’s?

Do you really think the car salesman has to go into the back to get his manager’s approval? Do you buy from the first dealership you go because you’re getting their ‘best’ deal?

Do you buy or sell real estate, the largest purchases of your life, without a strong understanding of the LOCAL market? Go to open houses in the area, get comparable sales over the past months, check trends, etc. and make the decision yourself. Understand where the information is coming from and that everyone has a bias.

And realize most importantly that life is too short to hate.

#177 I don't think so on 08.04.17 at 8:55 am

#167 OttawaMike on 08.04.17 at 7:24 am
Shortage of inventory and bidding wars here. Even in the burbs. Even during summer.

*******

bidding wars in Ottawa? right!

#178 Alistair McLaughlin on 08.04.17 at 8:56 am

If anyone is wondering why OttawaMike is so gung-ho on the Ottawa market, it likely has to do with articles like this:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/ottawa-house-sales-momentum-slows-in-july-good-news-for-buyers

Notice up top it says “Last updated 4:07 p.m. Aug 3.”

When that article originally hit the website earlier yesterday, it mentioned that average price – while up YoY – has declined substantially from the May peak, for both condos and detached homes. Funny how quickly that was scrubbed in favour of more bullish prose. Even the headline was changed to adopt a more bullish stance.

#179 Tom from Mississauga on 08.04.17 at 8:57 am

Quebec’s unemployment hits the lowest level in recorded history (1976). Let’s see if the media reports it, and the likelihood of higher rates with it…

#180 Leo Trollstoy on 08.04.17 at 9:02 am

#136 Balmuto on 08.03.17 at 11:38 pm
It’s a lot more sophisticated that you give it credit for.

He’s admitted on RFD that the maths (specifically stats) were his weak suit.

Unfortunately still convincing and harmful to newbies but no one else.

Toronto real estate prices won’t go down until sentiment, which is tied to economic prosperity, suffers a downturn. At the moment, jobs in many fields of finance, healthcare, tech, etc are booming.

#181 Garth will love this T2 shirt on 08.04.17 at 9:03 am

https://ibb.co/gL3dev

This is actually being sold in Iceland right now…no joke

#182 Reality 1 on 08.04.17 at 9:21 am

Why would you expect people that have no idea of what factors created this bubble to know (or recognize) the factors that will cause its demise ?

The average Canadian “homeowner” knows very little about ANYTHING that affects their economic life – past, present or future !

Time for their education to begin.

“Experience operates a very expensive school, but some can learn at no other. “

#183 Alistair McLaughlin on 08.04.17 at 9:24 am

Just in case there is any doubt that Ottawa prices have fallen since May, here are the numbers from OREB:

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in May in the Ottawa area was $436,625, an increase of 7.4 per cent over May 2016. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $270,993, an increase of 2.3 per cent over May 2016.

http://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/condo-sales-lead-the-way-for-stellar-performance-in-may/

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in July in the Ottawa area was $420,335, an increase of 5.3 per cent over July 2016. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $267,641, an increase of 2.8 per cent over July 2016.

Let us summarize:

May detached: $436,625
July detached: $420,335
$ change: -$16,290
% change: -3.7%

May condo: $270,993
July condo: $267,641
$ change: -$3352
% change: -1.2%

So OttawaMike, do you still think Garth is doing a “huge disservice” to his readers by telling us Ottawa prices are dropping, when in fact, Ottawa prices are dropping?

#184 Dolce Vita on 08.04.17 at 9:25 am

July 2017 Labour Force Survey:

“…employment was little changed in July (+11,000 or +0.1%)…the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage points to 6.3%. This is the lowest rate since October 2008, just prior to the onset of the 2008-2009 labour market downturn.”

Yup, rates are going up in October.

The above says to me that we are near full employment in Canada, for those that want to work.

Not long after a rate increase, we’ll if all these doom and gloom surveys about Canadians living on the financial edge every month are true.

Small drop of -2,200 jobs in the Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing Sector vs. June (June had a small increase of +2,100 vs. May).

#185 Dissident on 08.04.17 at 9:26 am

LOLOL!!! Globe & Mail cannot muster the words for an accurate title.

I just read through this article from the Globe quickly, and the title does NOT reflect the article! :D :D :D

Read between the lines people!

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/toronto-real-estate-market-picks-up-after-lull/article35861587/

#186 TheManwhoStaresatSheeple on 08.04.17 at 9:28 am

The latest Stats Canada jobs data:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/170804/dq170804a-eng.htm

Key words:
“The number of employees in the private and public sectors was little changed in July. Compared with 12 months earlier, the number of private sector employees increased by 221,000 (+1.9%), while public sector employment rose by 135,000 (+3.8%).”

135,000 new parasites “livin large” – and this usually comes with a new RE purchase….

And this is the reason why “OttawaMike” claims that the RE market there is unstoppable.

#187 Reximus on 08.04.17 at 9:30 am

#183 Alistair McLaughlin

+++

Here’s a hint: May is in spring (busy mkt) ; July is in summer (slow mkt)…same as every year

#188 Alistair McLaughlin on 08.04.17 at 9:30 am

I forgot to include the link to the July OREB release:

http://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/condo-sales-drive-the-ottawa-resale-market-in-july/

#189 Reality 1 on 08.04.17 at 9:35 am

comment to posting # 180 Leo Trollstoy

“Toronto real estate prices won’t go down until … ”

From your postings, I have always thought of you (or your tough guy persona you portray on this blog) as a self aggrandizing and smug jerk who thinks he knows all.

Now I know that you are just a delusional fool. And with this stupid statement, so does everybody else.

You can’t even face reality – market is down hard on lower volume and much lower dollar volume of transactions.

Restrict credit and reduce motivation and it doesn’t matter how many jobs may be out there, especially after a parabolic price move.

#190 Dolce Vita on 08.04.17 at 9:35 am

#161 Reality 1

Well using your logic:

Rates will go up again October.

When rates go up, RE prices go down.

Whether fear of not getting out or rates increases, RE prices going down.

#191 Keith in Calgary on 08.04.17 at 9:35 am

Thanks to the “Mayor of Mattamy/Milton” I just spent the last 2 minutes cleaning up my table here at Starbucks after I spit my coffee out from laughing so hard.

Best comedy write up of the year !!! Well done.

#192 Dissident on 08.04.17 at 9:38 am

Re my last post #185, So that Globe article was clearly an example of “fake news”, paid for by your favorite Toronto real estate agents trying to stimulate their market.

How can the Globe & Mail print two oppositional articles on the *same day*?!

Same paper had this – https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/toronto-home-prices-suffer-worst-monthly-decline-in-17-years/article35871167/

(similar headline here for those w/out Globe subscription) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/canada-s-jobless-rate-falls-trade-disappoints-key-takeaways

That does not scream “market pics up” to me :D :D :D

#193 Grantmi on 08.04.17 at 9:39 am

#185 Dissident on 08.04.17 at 9:26 am
LOLOL!!! Globe & Mail cannot muster the words for an accurate title.

I just read through this article from the Globe quickly, and the title does NOT reflect the article! :D :D :D

Read between the lines people!

Email the editor!

#194 Dissident on 08.04.17 at 9:39 am

My bad – here is the bloomberg link. Darn scrolly pages…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-03/toronto-home-prices-in-record-monthly-drop-as-sales-plunge

#195 Triplenet on 08.04.17 at 9:54 am

Sold stats are accepted offers not closings – Garth

Are you sure?
Maybe TREB but certainly not all boards.

#196 Alistair McLaughlin on 08.04.17 at 10:02 am

Hey, I just realized that the original headline to the Ottawa Citizen article I linked to above is still contained in the link:

Ottawa house sales momentum slows in July good news for buyers

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/ottawa-house-sales-momentum-slows-in-july-good-news-for-buyers

But when you click on the link, the headline reads:

Key pockets in Ottawa real estate market turning in sellers’ favour

As I noted previously, the fact that Ottawa prices have fallen since May was scrubbed from the article. The entire thing has been rewritten to make the market look more bullish than it really is. If there are any doubts that media outlets are allowing the local real estate boards to dictate content, this should remove those doubts. Can you blame poor OttawaMike for being confused?

I believe this comes very close to providing documented evidence of deliberate deception regarding media reporting on housing market conditions. I wish I’d have saved a screenshot of the original article.

#197 BillyBob on 08.04.17 at 10:02 am

Don’t know if HHC and the Mayor of Milton are the same person, but both are in top form tonight. hahahah!

Icing on the cake is the supposed realtor whining about it. I mean, come on.

#198 NoName on 08.04.17 at 10:21 am

#62 Milton’s Got Ringworm on 08.03.17 at 8:01 pm

it is funny that someone would buy home across street from city land fill, or next to it. last year i as we were driving my daughter to her school we could see dumpdivisons on each side of dump being built so fast. 30×100 sfh and town homes.

If it continius at thes pace me thinks that with in next year dump will be boxed in, didnt see any schools being build in a area…

#199 M on 08.04.17 at 10:21 am

Landing ????
You call THIS – http://www.planecrashinfo.com/pictures2000.htm
LANDING ?????

:)

#200 FLHTK on 08.04.17 at 10:24 am

Breakfast television had an interview about the GTA housing market…..

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1518591314829645&id=129889047033219

#201 unfortunately for Canadians.. on 08.04.17 at 10:51 am

they are missing a tremendous rally in the US market. Jobs report very positive south of the border. CAD crushing returns (unless you’re hegded)

ytd;

TSX: -1.05%
S&P: +9.73%
Nas: +17.05%

Make America Great Again

#202 jess on 08.04.17 at 10:55 am

normalization “lift off”

4
What tools could the Fed use to raise interest rates?

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2015/files/2015047pap.pdf

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_counterparties.html

#203 Bill on 08.04.17 at 11:43 am

#71 Louise on 08.03.17 at 8:26 pm

House prices are still relatively affordable in Calgary. I would have expected more a shock with the oil downturn, but then again many households are dual income, and oil and gas workers should have substantial savings, or at least some equity in their homes. Unless there is an interest rate shock I don’t see anything resembling a crash. Average wages are so much higher in Alberta and taxes are low. From a personal perspective, I came from Nova Scotia and if I moved back my health care position income would be almost cut in half! Ignore the price of the house and look at the average mortgage payment. Still fairly affordable for Calgary’s $100,000+ average household income.

#204 maxx on 08.04.17 at 11:45 am

Wonder how much smart money is just sitting on the sidelines?

Those who’ve already sold and aren’t in a big hurry to return the entire mountain of cash to brick veneer and pressed cornflakes;

Those happy renting, but *might* buy if value presented itself (btw, realtards HATE it when buyers seek “value”. I believe they’re completely allergic to the concept. Just say the word and watch the expression change – it’s fun!);

Those transitioning from one life phase to another;

Those considering buying in another country, whilst renting in Canada;

Multi-national couples with other options;

No rush at all…………….other, better opportunities ALWAYS present themselves.

FOMO is a thing of the past.

#205 Tony on 08.04.17 at 11:50 am

Re: #141 Curious on 08.04.17 at 12:00 am

The Edmonton market crashed in the summer of 2007. Resale condos, resale townhouses and resale rowhouses today are half of what they would have sold for back in the summer of 2007. Here’s an example.
http://www.edmontonhomesweb.com/listing/e4063579-na-edmonton-ab/

#206 +1 For Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.04.17 at 11:52 am

Hey Honest Realtor, stop bitching about Happy Housing Crash.

#Happy Housing Crash Everyone!, ignore the moron using an oxymoron as his name :)

#207 maxx on 08.04.17 at 11:53 am

#77 Axehead on 08.03.17 at 8:48 pm

“Watch for it. Oh wait, it’s already here! BANKRUPTCY”

Yes indeed. The number of flyers in the mail as well as TV ads for those seeking help with runaway debt has been on the rise since the GFC and continues to accelerate. Perhaps soon the consumer proposal/debt consolidation/bankruptcy industry will outpace that of FIRE.

Kinda like crappy supermarket food that makes ya sick, giving rise to another industry peddling meds.

#208 paulo on 08.04.17 at 11:57 am

#145 response to no name

I am keeping a eye on a case,involving a individual whom had made a assignment into personal bankruptcy.

the trustee after discovering irregularities concerning the transfer of assets of the bankrupt,called in the law to investigate.

as a result the alleged bankrupt individual was charged with criminal fraud under section 230 of the criminal code of Canada.

at this point the individual after proceeding through a preliminary trial,has been committed to full formal trial
on allegations of criminal fraud exceeding 5000$.

i will update when the trial is completed. this individual will be going to jail if convicted.

#209 Mattl on 08.04.17 at 12:02 pm

I think my fave part of these comments are the guys that have been on the RE sidelines since 2010 or 2012 salivating at the chance to buy RE at 2012 or 2014 prices. All the while cheering for rate increases. The cognitive dissonance is amazing here.

Wake me up when I can buy a home in Port Moody at 2015 prices much less 2010 prices. GTA is in free fall but still only at winter 2016 prices. I have no doubt there is more to come, but if prices go back to 2014 and money is twice as expensive, is that really a win for a guy that has dumped 150k into rent the past 5 years waiting for a crash? And when the vulchers jump in? They have been waiting forever, whats a few more years right? Before you know it you’ve been on the sidelines for 15 years and all the greater fools are most of the way to a paid off house.

Would I buy now in YVR or the GTA? No way. Are the guys that have been waiting since 2012 going to be vindicated? Math IS hard.

#210 Lee on 08.04.17 at 12:26 pm

I think one of the things that has been driving the market in Toronto is the Airbnb business as people and companies buy up properties to operate in this arena. Eventually though, much like hotels stop being built when full capacity is reached, Airbnb-related purchases eventually slow down too. This may be part of the reason for the run up and sudden drop in sales in Toronto.

#211 Rexx Rock on 08.04.17 at 12:28 pm

Real estate was the best investment for your average Canadian for the last 20 years.In 2000 you could have bought a house in for $250,000 in Victoria,now $1,200,000.17 years and your a millionaire and sell and move to a more affordable country.Lots of boomers cashing out every year and having a great retirement.

#212 oncebittwiceshy on 08.04.17 at 12:29 pm

#180 Leo Trollstoy on 08.04.17 at 9:02 am
#136 Balmuto on 08.03.17 at 11:38 pm
It’s a lot more sophisticated that you give it credit for.

He’s admitted on RFD that the maths (specifically stats) were his weak suit.

Unfortunately still convincing and harmful to newbies but no one else.
#180 Leo Trollstoy:
“Toronto real estate prices won’t go down until sentiment, which is tied to economic prosperity, suffers a downturn. At the moment, jobs in many fields of finance, healthcare, tech, etc are booming.”<<<<<<

Not to worry Leo, a lot smarter people than you have come to the same conclusion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble
The chief economist of Freddie Mac and the director of Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) denied the existence of a national housing bubble and expressed doubt that any significant decline in home prices was possible, citing consistently rising prices since the Great Depression, an anticipated increased demand from the Baby Boom generation, and healthy levels of employment.

“a general slowing in the rate of price growth can be expected, but in many areas inventory shortages will persist and home prices are likely to continue to rise above historic norms”.”

#213 Dissident on 08.04.17 at 12:41 pm

RE: #88 Gasbag Boomer on 08.03.17 at 9:22 pm

You would not be incorrect on that one, haha

#214 oncebittwiceshy on 08.04.17 at 12:43 pm

Dan T. “You know why, because 70% own houses, a huge percentage own multiple “investment” RE and no one wants the party to end.

Just like the NDP back peddling now in BC and YVR. Saw that coming. No one wants the party to end or at least be considered the reason for bursting the bubble.

Bet they will spew out the same liberal message, we will “fight the affordability crisis but we can’t have prices drop, can’t mess with peoples hard earned equity”.”

Danny, Danny, Danny, How can you write such great anti-realtor prose and then sum it up with the above statements?

The answer: You’re a bull who thinks he’s smarter than the average bear.

To your manager at the real estate office: “what I’ll do is slam the media and realtors but I’ll finish it up by letting people know that things just aren’t going to change in Vancouver.”

Your manager: “Good plan, because we are seeing a lot of price cuts right now and we need to get things moving again. Christy’s not in office anymore and have you checked that stupid myrealtycheck.ca site.”

You: “No problem, they’re “bears” right. They have to be stupid, they haven’t bought yet.”

#215 SilverSon on 08.04.17 at 12:46 pm

#9 The real Kip on 08.03.17 at 5:44 pm

I’ve seen this question a few times in the comments section here. That’s not how property taxes work. They won’t go down if assessments go down because the percentage tax rates (city tax, education tax, etc.) will go up to compensate so that the municipality has enough money to pay all their bills.

No offense but I can’t believe how many homeowners that are paying thousands a year in property taxes don’t even understand how they are calculated. Takes 10 seconds to Google it and Google has been around for how long???

#216 SoldInApril on 08.04.17 at 12:49 pm

#9 The real Kip – That isn’t how municipal taxes work. Sure, your appraisal may go way down, but the net levy the municipality needs to raise (remember, they are prohibited by law from running a deficit) remains the same, so the tax rate increases to compensate for the lower appraisals.

The only way you pay less tax is if your property value goes down relative to other properties in the municipality.

#217 Stan Broock on 08.04.17 at 12:50 pm

What blows my mind is the prevailing expectation that real estate will crash/prices will correct/, renters will be vindicated, will be able to find cheaper homes, real-turds will be punished, jobs will be around, life will just go on.

It won’t. The world does not work that way. Especially today.

Real estate, the credit bubble and derived services became very big part of the economy in the last 2 decades. Unhealthy large part of the economy.
A cancerous tumor that has spread to all sectors of the economy.

Now the pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction.

Any return to the historical norms would drive severe depression. Inflationary most likely.
People will be booted from their houses.
Kids out of university will have no jobs.
Taxes will increase as somebody has to feed governments.
For maybe 10-15 years.

By that time automation would have replaced 70 % of the current jobs.

So what will the people living in big cities do?

Imagine Brampton, Mississauga or Woodbridge with 70 % unemployment.

Where will future jobs come from – manufacturing transgender washrooms for export?

#218 45north on 08.04.17 at 12:53 pm

GTA or Bust: The market in the GTA only changed ONCE the provincial government introduced the 16 point fair housing plan that targeted foreign buyers and domestic speculators. Sales and prices started their drop immediately after that plan came into effect and before the July rate increase – which no one expected.

an alternate explanation:

just as the GTA housing market hit an all-time high the Provincial Government introduced the 16 point fair housing plan. In other words, that was the moment provincial politicians acted on their belief that housing could not go down and therefore it could be harnessed for their own purposes which were to espouse a cause with common appeal and to generate revenue.

I believe the real cause was simple credit exhaustion. This became evident with the financial difficulties of Home Capital Group. Home Capital Group was not a big player but it shed light on the big players – they thought the market was at an all-time high. Other players took their cue from them. Hence the decline.

The die is cast. Once the Ontario Liberals see the desolation of the GTA they are going to tweak the 16 point fair housing plan. I think they see it now. Reminds me of the story of the German U-boat captain: give me an atheist, and when he is in my boat with the depth charges going off above him, he will fall on this knees and pray to his God.

#219 What about CMHC? on 08.04.17 at 12:59 pm

Lady: Do you smoke?
Guy: Yes I do.
Lady: How many packs a day?
Guy: 3 packs.
Lady: How much per pack?
Guy: $10.00 per pack.
Lady: And how long have you been smoking?
Guy: 15 years
Lady: So 1 pack is $10.00 and you have been smoking 3 packs a day which puts your spending per month at $900. In 1 year, it would have been $10,800. Correct?
Guy: Correct.
Lady: If 1 year you spend $10,800, not accounting for inflation, the past 15 years puts your spending total at $162,000. Correct?
Guy: Correct.
Lady: Do you know if you hadn’t smoke, that money could have been put in a step-up interest savings account and after accounting for compound interest for the past 15 years, you could have by now bought a Ferrari?
Guy: Oh. Do you smoke?
Lady: No.
Guy: Then where’s your Ferrari?

#220 NEVER GIVE UP on 08.04.17 at 1:01 pm

It is patently irresponsible for Gov. to allow outside buyers not living and paying income taxes to purchase multiple homes in a tight market.

Here is one way to control it.
Have a default tax on homes of 3% of value of the home per year.

If your income tax return principal residence is showing on your tax return then the tax is automatically voided.
That will really take the profit out of housing.

Also Asians are used to holding condos in empty cities with no property tax. They will hate paying 30K on a $1 Million property as will any speculator.

Ratchet up the tax starting at 1% and raise it to 3% in 5 years to allow some to get out with their shirts still on.

Only thing is I am not sure how to apply this to those who open a business to skirt the tax.

Some smart pundit will have an idea.

#221 NEVER GIVE UP on 08.04.17 at 1:06 pm

Housing should be managed for people to live in.

Not a futures market for investors to manipulate and profit from leaving our children out in the cold.

#222 Looney Baloney on 08.04.17 at 1:08 pm

CAD coming down like a bombardier that just lost an engine…

#223 OttawaMike on 08.04.17 at 1:12 pm

Lots of janitors herein the comments judging by the sweeping statements regarding Real estate.

AL RE is local. My friends daughter is shopping for a first house. Town house to be exact. Monday she lost on a bidding war to 13 other offers. They went to a new listing on Weds and we’re going to present an offer after work Thurs. Too late sold. This is Kanata Lakes / Beaverbrook area.

My area is Carlington, a slowly gentrifying area in central Ottawa west. Lots of social housing, small wartime vets homes large lots. Anything selling for over $400 K was an anomaly. 2 new listings last week both high $ 400’s – gone in 5 days. Thousand square foot shotgun shacks with lipstick.

Condos are moving here as well, finally clearing the surplus.

#224 Perspective on 08.04.17 at 1:22 pm

To all the moms and dads laid off and unable to provide for their families…
To the kid who won’t play hockey this year due to lack of funds…
To the charity that has donations fall off…
To the guy saving to go to college and is laid off…
To the families that are destroyed….
To the folks whos sense of self worth is badly shaken and takes the ultimate step…
To the dreams of millions who have their dreams shattered…

Happy Housing Crash )-:

I sometimes wonder if we deserve to survive as a species.

#225 Reality 1 on 08.04.17 at 1:28 pm

reply to comment # 190 Dolce Vita

What’s your point about my posting ?
Please explain.

My view is that RE prices will fall everywhere for all the reasons Garth has mentioned – I agree with him.

#226 Dan.t on 08.04.17 at 1:40 pm

Great business to get into soon will be the bankruptcy business. Debt pigs everywhere will blame everyone but themselves….Ja, it’s nice having shinny new s**t as Long as you can afford it, but keeping up with the Jones is tough.

How many Canadians owe the banks their next 35+ years.

#227 Bonhomme Carnaval on 08.04.17 at 1:42 pm

Juillet 2017
Variation annuelle dans le nombre de transactions résidentielles
Montréal : + 16 %
Toronto : – 40 %
Vancouver : – 8 %

http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie/immobilier/201708/04/01-5121929-explosion-des-ventes-et-des-prix-a-montreal.php

La courtière Marie-Yvonne Paint de Royal LePage à Westmount, qui se spécialise dans la propriété luxueuse, confirme la présence accrue d’acheteurs asiatiques.

« Il y a clairement un avant et un après depuis l’introduction d’une taxe à Vancouver pour les non-résidants. »

– Marie-Yvonne Paint, courtière

Elle s’attend à ce qu’une nouvelle vague d’investisseurs chinois déferle dans les prochains mois à Montréal.

#228 cramar on 08.04.17 at 1:47 pm

#161 Reality 1 on 08.04.17 at 6:22 am

reply to comment # 133 Cramar

Leamington – are you serious?

That backwater farming town (population of 25,595) as an indicator of anything economic is a bad joke at best.

GTA has about 6,000,000 population and had 6,000 transactions last month (and about 10,000 a month in 2016) in a diversified economy.

That is the entire housing stock in Leamington, a one industry town where , what, 15 houses sell a month in that tiny market.

Jeez, the denial is thick with this one.

———————

I see your moniker is an example of a real oxymoron.

Denial? Of what?

I been stating for years on this blog that if someone really wants a house and it is that important, then get out of large metro areas of Ontario and live in a small city or town where housing is affordable and quality of living is superior.

Leamington is no longer a one industry town. Although if you mean the large number of greenhouse operations you might have a point. The growth in the number of acres under cover in just this last year is mind-blowing. This is good because we don’t eat granite countertops and laminate flooring.

But a “backwater farming town”?? Get real! Lot’s of commercial and residential development going on. Great marina. It’s a nice retirement destination, and a significant percentage of houses sold are bought by out-of-towners.

How many people REALLY WANT to live in the GTA? Most have to because of their job.

#229 jess on 08.04.17 at 1:50 pm

Russian oligarch’s BVI firm sues registered agent that provided information to tax authority
July 20, 2017 by David Marchant

“Two BVI companies are suing their registered agent to find out what information about them it disclosed to the local International Tax Authority. At least one of the firms appears to be controlled by London-based Russian oligarch Vladimir Chernukhin.

Starr Russia Investments III BV v. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu et al: Complaint
Accounting group Deloitte’s operations in Guernsey, Britain and Russia are being sued for fraud and negligence by a Dutch investment firm that claims to have lost at least $110 million by investing in a Russian bank that turned out to be insolvent. “

#230 WhoAlSinclair on 08.04.17 at 1:57 pm

I missed the entertainment on Hot Property last night. Anyone watch it? Has Al had a breakdown yet? Waiting patiently, that guy makes me laugh.

#231 Ian on 08.04.17 at 2:04 pm

Who is in for a blog dog meetup at Belfountain General Store this Saturday at noon?!?

Even Mark is invited so he can tell us how much deflation there is!!

Happy Aluminum Siding Day!!!

Happy Empty Open House Weekend!!!

#232 EB on 08.04.17 at 2:09 pm

#224 Perspective – You can use shaming to shut down a lot of conversations, but it’s not going to work for this. You might as well tell gravity it’s hateful and ignorant.

#233 InvestorsFriend on 08.04.17 at 2:09 pm

What Is Investing All About?

From post 167…

Containing risk is what correct investing is all about. — Garth

***************************************
True one must contain / manage risk.

I like to think investing is also all about getting stinking rich over a long period of time by owning your share of profitable companies (as well as lending to them as in fixed income).

A certain amount of greed is not a bad thing and is what drives most humans to strive to improve their situations steadily over time.

It’s not about highly risky bets, that’s gambling.

Investing is generally low risk over long periods of time. Well, low risk of not making at least some positive return though that precise return is uncertain and therefore risky.

#234 Alistair McLaughlin on 08.04.17 at 2:11 pm

Clearly OttawaMike’s anecdotes about the few remaining hot pockets in Ottawa are more valuable than statistics which betray a slowing market. And that Ottawa Citizen article was changed in the interests of accuracy and journalistic integrity, nothing else!

#235 geez on 08.04.17 at 2:11 pm

‘a $1.578 million in April is now going for $1.3 million. ‘

………

oh goodie look….the average detached house in Toronto is ONLY $1.3 million

#236 what's not to love? on 08.04.17 at 2:23 pm

GVRD housing market is so hot, you can literally taste the stench of ash 24/7

market is up but death from overdose is up more (88%)

great hot market with gang related turf wars combined with bidding wars

WHAT THE F IS NOT TO LOVE ABOUT VANCOUVER?

YUCK!

Dead beat of a city!

#237 Reality 1 on 08.04.17 at 2:24 pm

to # 223 OttawaMike

Funny, you, a scumbag realtor calling the people who post on this blog “janitors”.

Check this blog’s demographics that Garth has compiled – you are not addressing your wet behind the ear clients here.

You are the one who would be classified a “janitor”on this blog, financially speaking.

And as to honesty, intellect and morality ?

You are the one trying to sell your friend’s daughter into debt servitude of home ownership at probably the worst time in Canadian history.

You are a RE agent – being a janitor would be a big step up for you.

Spare us the realtor BS – no one is buying it, except of course your friend’s poor misguided daughter.

Several people today have posted FACTUAL reporting on the Ottawa market and you try to counter that truth with your stories ?

Where are your 3rd party verifiable facts – post them or you are just another lying realtor.

#238 Dissident on 08.04.17 at 2:54 pm

RE #219 What about CMHC? on 08.04.17 at 12:59 pm

Silly wabbit, she bought a house with that dough, lolol.

Can’t live in a Ferrari.

#239 re., ottawamike on 08.04.17 at 2:58 pm

Lots of janitors herein the comments judging by the sweeping statements regarding Real estate.

AL RE is local. My friends daughter is shopping for a first house. Town house to be exact. Monday she lost on a bidding war to 13 other offers. They went to a new listing on Weds and we’re going to present an offer after work Thurs. Too late sold. This is Kanata Lakes / Beaverbrook area.

My area is Carlington, a slowly gentrifying area in central Ottawa west. Lots of social housing, small wartime vets homes large lots. Anything selling for over $400 K was an anomaly. 2 new listings last week both high $ 400’s – gone in 5 days. Thousand square foot shotgun shacks with lipstick.

Condos are moving here as well, finally clearing the surplus.
………

you’d do way better not insulting people you don’t even know.

This way people are more likely to read your posts. I stopped after the first line

#240 RW_Z on 08.04.17 at 3:00 pm

“But a ‘backwater farming town’?? Get real!”

It is people proudly paying a quarter million for a house in a nameless field (which I’ve never heard of in my life) across from Detroit (where the median home price is $42K USD) who need to get real. That was tantamount to an advertisement for hysteria.

#241 Reality 1 on 08.04.17 at 3:28 pm

reply to comment # Cramar

Your post implies that Leamington is an example of how the RE market will be unaffected in areas outside of GTA.

It is too small of an area to extrapolate the conditions elsewhere ex-GTA.

In fact, if someone bought a new car there it would likely double the GDP of the town ! LOL

I don’t get that my ‘handle’ of Reality 1 is an oxymoron to you. Is that a sly attempt at ad hominem attack or did you look in the mirror and see a moron?

I’ve heard that is how they think in hicksville, backwater towns – now it is confirmed.

Have a nice day.

#242 Bobby on 08.04.17 at 3:55 pm

For #211 Rex Rocks

What a bunch of drivel! No, you couldn’t buy a house here in Victoria in 2000 for $250k and cash out now for $1.2 million. I think you have been spending too much time in the pot shops here in Victoria.
There is so much misinformation being spouted by so many who supposedly know the real estate market. No wonder many first time buyers are coerced into making questionable purchases. Sadly, many are associated with the real estate industry.
I pity your clients.

#243 oncebittwiceshy on 08.04.17 at 3:55 pm

#235 geez on 08.04.17 at 2:11 pm
‘a $1.578 million in April is now going for $1.3 million. ‘

………

oh goodie look….the average detached house in Toronto is ONLY $1.3 million

Excellent, a regular that can follow the market down for us.

oh goodie look….the average detached house in Toronto is ONLY $1.0 million

oh goodie look….the average detached house in Toronto is ONLY $700,000

oh shit look…..the average detached house in Toronto
is ONLY $500,000.

Try Monty Python, “it’s only a flesh wound”

#244 oncebittwiceshy on 08.04.17 at 4:00 pm

#82 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 08.03.17 at 9:04 pm
It’s just a blip in the road. A pothole on the radar. No big hairy deal. Folks will soon ignore the scare mongers and nay sayers just like in Vancouver which is on fire again.Wake up and smell the Beaver folks. Prices are never going back to where the average family income can afford a house in Tronna or Vancouver.<<<<<<<<

Hang on, I remember your name. Wasn't your father saying the same thing in 1981, in Vancouver or was that 1994.

Oh well, it looks like neither one of you learned that lesson.

The fortunate thing is you get another opportunity to learn.

#245 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 08.04.17 at 4:12 pm

WhoAlSinclair on 08.04.17 at 1:57 pm
I missed the entertainment on Hot Property last night. Anyone watch it? Has Al had a breakdown yet? Waiting patiently, that guy makes me laugh.

I sometimes watch for a min or two but can’t stand how He and his fellow shysters just make up stories and predictions based on nothing but wishful thinking. The government has to regulate the RE industry. Its the biggest purchase in someone’s life and high school drop outs are advising people on fictional info/outright lies to buy. High school drop outs with six weeks training. Just think how crazy that is to allow high school drop outs with no education and six weeks training to have no regulations? I have written to all MPs and maybe others should do the same. I find it funny these realtors are just idiots who borrowed money and got an audi lease and nice clothes and just play the part of success. ALL the while they are HIGH SCHOOL DROP OUTS.

#246 OttawaMike on 08.04.17 at 4:28 pm

It’s a pun folks Janitor-Sweeping Statements.

Geddit?

Jeez some of you old codgers sure get your panties in twist easily..

#247 45north on 08.04.17 at 4:37 pm

Alistair McLaughlin:
talking about an article in the Ottawa Citizen:

When that article originally hit the website earlier yesterday, it mentioned that average price – while up YoY – has declined substantially from the May peak, for both condos and detached homes. Funny how quickly that was scrubbed in favour of more bullish prose. Even the headline was changed to adopt a more bullish stance.

you really have to focus to find small edits in newspaper stories. Thank you

Up to now, the story of Ottawa and Toronto real estate has been the same – real estate goes up. Over the summer, the Toronto story has changed – real estate is going down.

I think that Ottawa real estate will go down too. I don’t think there’s room for two stories: real estate is a bad investment in Toronto but it’s good in Ottawa.

#248 Fish on 08.04.17 at 4:39 pm

I like cash flow, never say never,

#249 Bob Dog on 08.04.17 at 4:45 pm

Read an article claiming Toronto is the new centre of tech in North America outshining even Silicon Valley. Funny thing is, I can’t name 3 Canadian tech companies you would consider household names.

Seems more like foreign tech giants exploiting the policies put in place by the ‘government’ following the oil crash.

#250 paul on 08.04.17 at 4:45 pm

230 WhoAlSinclair on 08.04.17 at 1:57 pm

I missed the entertainment on Hot Property last night. Anyone watch it? Has Al had a breakdown yet? Waiting patiently, that guy makes me laugh.
——————————————————————–
He might, make you laugh. But he laughs all the way to the bank!

#251 ben on 08.04.17 at 4:56 pm

The idea that hot money will flood into Montreal is stupid. Montreal was there before the tax, why didn’t they buy then? This simply is not how business people think.

It is how people who watch TV business shows think, however.

#252 jim on 08.04.17 at 5:08 pm

#180 Leo Trollstoy:

“Toronto real estate prices won’t go down until sentiment, which is tied to economic prosperity, suffers a downturn. At the moment, jobs in many fields of finance, healthcare, tech, etc are booming.”

Ha ha, yes… tell me of this massive upsurge in jobs in Toronto. Ethnic restaurants? Service jobs?

Tech is terrible in Toronto. Please name some titans there. There’s a small research institute (Vector Institute) opening up, a few smaller startups. Google has a tiny office there, mostly of sales people. Uber’s office there is small and puny.

Finance? You are aware that a lot of financial jobs are being wiped out by software, right? I suggest looking up the articles.

Law? Oops, sorry… there too hiring is down and not as many associates are being taken on.

Government? Why yes, lots of jobs in government. I suggest you don’t know much about economics if you think that is a good thing.

Toronto is basically government (including healthcare, education), some law/accounting firms that service it, real estate, a bit of tourism, a bit of media, and immigrants selling each other food and chinese goods. Walk downtown and count the buildings owned by true private sector companies. It’s ‘bank, bank, accounting firm, healthcare, bank, government, university, bank’.

#253 cramar on 08.04.17 at 5:10 pm

#241 Reality 1 on 08.04.17 at 3:28 pm
reply to comment # Cramar

Your post implies that Leamington is an example of how the RE market will be unaffected in areas outside of GTA.

It is too small of an area to extrapolate the conditions elsewhere ex-GTA.

In fact, if someone bought a new car there it would likely double the GDP of the town ! LOL

I don’t get that my ‘handle’ of Reality 1 is an oxymoron to you. Is that a sly attempt at ad hominem attack or did you look in the mirror and see a moron?

I’ve heard that is how they think in hicksville, backwater towns – now it is confirmed.

Have a nice day.

———————-

Just maybe it is an example of how the RE market will be unaffected outside of the GTA. Maybe it will be. Time will tell.

Here I thought that you were actually being civil in your reply. Funny, but after reading your reply to #223, I was thinking that you seem to relish ad hominem attacks over real facts.

It is too bad that Garth is not enforcing the banning of people who engage in personal attacks. A lot of your replies to others are over the line for a mature adult. I suspect that you have a self esteem issue that needs constant inflation by dismissing others with demeaning labels. You should be confined to the corner until you grow up and be civil.

#254 young & foolish on 08.04.17 at 5:26 pm

Fear of Getting Out … that’s what people felt during the crash of 2007-8 while they ran for the exits ….

Momentum investing works … every time!

#255 young & foolish on 08.04.17 at 5:38 pm

Containing risk is what correct investing is all about. — Garth

Correct … and owning well located freehold property in Canada’s largest city while it’s still growing and attracting people from around the world is very risky indeed!

#256 Reality 1 on 08.04.17 at 8:36 pm

reply to comment # 253 Cramar

Wow !
Just wow !

So, in addition to your expertise in market dynamics using a small town as your model , you find time to psychoanalize someone you have never met in an attempt to deflect criticism of your myopic economic views.

Your opinions are therefore highly suspect to me.

As I said, have a nice day / evening.

I meant it.

#257 Bob on 08.05.17 at 2:01 am

I would love Garth’s comment on this.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/toronto-real-estate-market-picks-up-after-lull/article35861587/

#258 Jeremy on 08.05.17 at 2:29 pm

I worry that, given the cynicism of this site (which I love when it’s accurate), that Garth will never declare when he thinks the market is priced properly for buyers. I’m currently in 700 sq ft with another human and need more space as my family grows, and giving the landlord the power to kick us out because he / she is getting divorced is not an option for me.

Buy when you can afford it. You know the risks. — Garth

#259 Curious on 08.05.17 at 5:31 pm

#205

Edmonton needs another crash. People are going broke or barely managing at todays house prices!

#260 Bob on 08.06.17 at 12:27 pm

New Condo Sales are booming
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/housing-slowdown-toronto-condo-sales-are-booming/article35862073/