Softly

First off, what’s with Bill?

Out of the blue Monday afternoon came word of a major announcement by our millionaire federal finance minister, Bill Morneau. Here it is..

Minister of Finance to Take Next Step in Providing Fairness for the Middle Class

Minister of Finance Bill Morneau will hold a press conference on Tuesday, July 18, 2017 regarding the next steps of the Government’s plan to improve fairness for Canada’s middle class.

We know this is probably Something Big since the department of finance has arranged a full-blown ‘technical briefing’ for journalists to begin an hour prior to the ministerial press conference at 11:40 am DST (Daylight Selfie Time) in Ottawa. Besides, the event will be held in the National Press Theatre – the primo location for doing things like, oh, unveiling details on further ways to fleece the rich. It looks like Tuesday will be the beginning of some bad days to earn your income through a small business corporation.

Recall that ‘anti-doctor’ measures were actively considered for the March budget, but rejected last-minute because of the Trump Factor. They did not go away. And here we are – a war on retained earnings and on family businesses. (Say, did anyone notice Bill Morneau went to work in his dad’s company and ended up owning big equity?)

$     $     $

Of course more taxation in our little Maple paradise is exactly what the housing market doesn’t need right now. Governments have been brutalizing the real estate market with regularity while the central bank abruptly raises interest rates, new regulations threaten all buyers with a stress test, and the cost of mortgages jumps as bond yields flutter higher. Worse, there are thousands of deplorables who don’t read this blog and own multiple properties they thought could be flipped in a heartbeat to a horny Millennial. Now the market has died, and they’re desperate. Big price declines on the way.

In fact, they’re already here…

Source: Bloomberg

Look at this chart. Amazing. The 14.2% plunge in average prices in Toronto over the last 90 days is the steepest dive on record. Right back to 1988 when Boomers first discovered they could scratch out average and median monthly stats on their cave walls. If this experience is repeated over the next 90 days, this real estate correction will be the steepest, swiftest one in modern Canadian history.

The average Canadian home has given up 10% of its value – or about $50,000 – since April. There are 7.3 million detached houses in this country, so it looks like families just became $366 billion poorer than they think.

In the Toronto region, home to six million people, only 5,977 properties changed hands last month, the lowest level in seven years – right back to the credit crisis. The price decline mentioned above is the fastest on record, and the ratio of sales to new listings has crashed to a level not seen since the disaster of 2009.

Sales in the GTA plunged 15% last month and more than 11% across Canada, year/year. Prices in Oakville and Milton (where there are over 500 listings and 75 empty open houses last weekend alone) fell 3.6% last month. Yes, you read that correctly – a 43% annualized dip. Just one month from now the price of an average home in Canada will be less than it was at the same time a year ago. Add in the huge costs associated with buying, financing, maintaining and selling a property, and this is looking like a loser asset class.

Across the nation, house sales are declining in 70% of all markets. In Vancouver sales were off 4% last month to barely more than 3,000 units. The average price ($1.04 million) has given up 3.2% in a single month – a massive decline in thirty days.

And what do the economists say? Here’s TD’s Diana Petramala, reading from the bank script and trying not to throw up: “The Canadian housing market is now in its third month of what is expected to be a soft landing.”

Can markets really shrug off increasing rates, more costly mortgages, new borrowing restrictions, higher taxes, bulging supply, waning demand, speculation levies, new rent controls and epic levels of unrepayable debt?

Let’s wait and hear what Bill’s got to say. Then we can go nuts.

 

191 comments ↓

#1 TRUMP on 07.17.17 at 6:55 pm

When it’s all said and done don’t forget I told you so.

I’ll still be the President and the markets will keep driving higher.

Dow 40000 TSX 25000

#2 Keith on 07.17.17 at 6:55 pm

People have spent all they have. People have spent all they have, and all they can borrow. If 70% of the economy is consumer spending, what happens when the spending slows down… to a trickle?

#3 dakkie on 07.17.17 at 6:57 pm

Canada Will Soon Encounter MASS FORECLOSURES Even if Prices Keep Rising!

http://investmentwatchblog.com/canada-will-soon-encounter-mass-foreclosures-even-if-prices-keep-rising/

#4 Tony the Gino on 07.17.17 at 6:58 pm

All I see in Woodbridge is prices going higher. Still can’t Afford anything. Townhouses listed for 899 now relisted for 1.2 million. It’s crazy but still can’t afford anything. Maybe buyers elsewhere are getting all the deals. I know I’m not.

#5 Looney Baloney on 07.17.17 at 6:58 pm

Can markets really shrug off increasing rates, more costly mortgages, new borrowing restrictions, higher taxes, bulging supply, waning demand, speculation levies, new rent controls and epic levels of unrepayable debt?

Markets can’t. Horny moisters can.

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.17.17 at 7:01 pm

As Dorothy said to her dog after the Tornado whisked them away to the land of Oz…. “I dont think we’re in Kansas anymore Toronto!”

#7 dangeresque2 on 07.17.17 at 7:03 pm

Thanks Garth as always. Very interested in how tomorrow’s announcement goes!

Lots of info about GTA… Does anyone have a pulse on how the Edmonton market is doing?

#8 Doug t on 07.17.17 at 7:03 pm

Bill is an idiot in a long line of idiots – in fact peeps in his neighbourhood refer to him as “the village idiot” – I’ve said it before, this country is in the early part of a looooonnnggg recession the like the of which we haven’t had in quite some time.

#9 Guy in Calgary on 07.17.17 at 7:03 pm

Air is all smoky today from the BC wildfires. The air quality reminds me my previous home in Ontario. Should be interesting to see what happens with this.

At this point it seems like the Government is just throwing s**t at the wall until something sticks. Austerity measures never work.

#10 Fair Value on 07.17.17 at 7:04 pm

The last time the real estate markets in Canada offered fair value was way back in 2005 or perhaps even before that. We need this streak of 3-5% monthly price drops to keep grinding along for quite some time before we can reach those inflation adjusted levels where prices revert to something sensible…as in, 12 straight months of these declines or more. This is a good start.

Who really knows where this will all end up?

#11 the Jaguar on 07.17.17 at 7:05 pm

Sounds like Bill is about to spring those initiatives related to the unfairness of ‘income sprinkling’, Holdco’s, etc. that you wrote about a little while back.
Or maybe he is just trying to distract attention from Trudeau getting booed at the greatest outdoor show on earth the other night…..

#12 common sense on 07.17.17 at 7:06 pm

Announcing “Bill” is going to give a news conference is like reading the incoming number on your phone and seeing it’s from the ex…

You just know, nothing good is going to come out it.

#13 mouldyinYVR on 07.17.17 at 7:07 pm

“Can markets really shrug off increasing rates, more costly mortgages, new borrowing restrictions, higher taxes, bulging supply, waning demand, speculation levies, new rent controls and epic levels of unrepayable debt?”

Probably not in Ontario, but here in YVR we don’t play by your rules!!

#14 Jim on 07.17.17 at 7:08 pm

Maybe Bill will make it easier for speculators and foreign investors to flip condos and to launder money in our real estate and drive prices up even further, thereby disenfranchising the middle class even more. That’s what the rich want right?

#15 Stone on 07.17.17 at 7:09 pm

I don’t see anything online regarding a July 18th announcement. Are the media sleeping at the switch? Can we have a link to this announcement?

#16 Smoking Man on 07.17.17 at 7:14 pm

I picked a great time to leave CommiCan

#17 mouldyinYVR on 07.17.17 at 7:15 pm

https://www.locatehomes.ca/bc-real-estate-listings/coquitlam/mls-R2171014/217-3098-Guildford-Way-Coquitlam-V3B7W8?id=262192641

“Court order sale, 2 bedroom condo, great location steps to La Farge Lake and shopping. This sale is for the HUSBANDS interest ONLY …the listing price is for half ONLY.”

…..gotta love this listing…………Wow, maybe we have hit the top …at least in YVR suburbia…….don’t think I’ve seen a listing like this before…sounds desperate!

#18 MF on 07.17.17 at 7:15 pm

This probably means now is the time to buy in the gta. There is a little but of fear but still tons of demand. Rates may rise a tiny bit but are most likely to be lowered again during the next “crisis”, which is an inevitability.

Condos (all anyone can afford) are actually up.

MF

#19 Alex Prikhodko on 07.17.17 at 7:18 pm

I was going to write you an email Garth, regarding an experience I had with Global News last week to give you a perspective on how real estate propaganda works in this country.

After you have published my account of cash backs and rebates, Tom Hayes of Global News came in to take an interview. He sounded genuine enough so I told him exactly what was going on. He was in our office for about 45 minutes.

When I saw the actual report on TV l was quite shocked with what I saw. First they cut about 95% of the interview and then, for whatever unexplained reason, they put some clown from Royal LePage claiming that the prices will be up 24% by the end of this year.

They basically obscured the report with inserts, NOT related to the report.

The information MUST not get out… GAG order I’m sure. 1984 anyone?

Here’s the link to the clip, judge for yourself, scroll to 24:25

http://globalnews.ca/video/3597968/global-news-at-530-jul-13-4

#20 Costco Nation on 07.17.17 at 7:19 pm

If this is soft landing I wonder what hard is. Many mucho buyers will decide to just dissapear before the key day.
And I’m out of popcorn.

#21 Bonhomme Carnaval on 07.17.17 at 7:24 pm

On the B-side, party in Montréal!

http://www.lesaffaires.com/blogues/joanie-fontaine/marche-proprietes-luxe-croissance/596075

Albeit, for ‘luxury’ properties (luxury = top 5% in each market).

Peace,

#22 Suede on 07.17.17 at 7:24 pm

“Fair Share”

If you ever hear those words… run. This is 2nd Plank in Karl Marx’s Communist Manifesto.

Welcome back to the big red machine folks!

#23 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.17.17 at 7:26 pm

#2 Tony the Gino

You realtor shills are such dirty shyster liars it is not even funny. People can walk outside to see you are a lying sack of poop. We know and see it crashing and we can hear your horrible financial screams. I am amazed how or why anyone would listen or believe a high school drop out. The government should regulate realtors and demand they have a college or University degree before taking 6 week realtor course . How many realtors would be left? 10? Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#24 Damifino on 07.17.17 at 7:27 pm

Terrifying… no, I mean really.

#25 Alberta Ed on 07.17.17 at 7:28 pm

Well, Bill needs the money to pay off terrorists.

#26 Miller Time on 07.17.17 at 7:29 pm

And yet Oakville is trending back up…
https://www.zolo.ca/oakville-real-estate/trends

#27 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.17.17 at 7:29 pm

Easy boy, easy…..don’t stampede the herd. The market is not dying, it’s just catching its breath. The Canadian economy would collapse if they popped the bubble,they will try try freeze it where it is and hope that wage inflation over a decade or two will make homes affordable to the average family again but that won’t happen either cuz for wage inflation to occur there needs to be a labor shortage which isn’t gonna happen either cuz of all the foreign workers coming in. Carry on folks, no big changes on the horizon.

#28 Dee on 07.17.17 at 7:30 pm

You are an idiot. You simply call for a continous bull market with no end.

—–

No he’s not, he’s saying the same fundamentals, ie population growth, cheap borrowing costs, inventory problems, insane rent costs, that led to 10 years of price increases, are still in play… and he’s right.

When those factors change meaningfully, then the upward price pressure will abate. Only inventory has recently changed, but meaningfully, so far only in a few places (York region is a mess). Money is still cheap. Incoming population still up.

Like Vancouver, Toronto condos are booming in price, which means those condo sellers are flush with cash they didn’t have a year ago. They want a house.

———————

Correction, you are both wrong. Small rate increase, rule changes, bank tightening, and less crooked lenders means there’s less available credit. Rent prices follow house prices. The U.S statistically over time has had more people enter their country and still has ten times more people. By the argument of population, at some point they should have had dramatically higher prices than Canada. Why doesnt Montreal have higher prices than Vancouver? At some point in time by your argument the inflow of people into montreal should have propelled prices higher and kept them higher than vancouver

#29 El Jako on 07.17.17 at 7:31 pm

“fleece the rich”. Ah, yes, unfleece the middle class.

#30 Ole Doberman on 07.17.17 at 7:33 pm

Prices might be down across Canada but Calgary still remains strong as a rock. Still seeing sold signs all over Varsity.

#31 jay on 07.17.17 at 7:34 pm

#18 MF Same thing in Lower Mainland, there is very little condo inventory ,there isn’t even anything to rent, how can the price be going down.http://www.straight.com/life/937056/renters-vancouver-thats-when-bidding-war-started

#32 Average Joe on 07.17.17 at 7:35 pm

#15 Stone on 07.17.17 at 7:09 pm

I don’t see anything online regarding a July 18th announcement. Are the media sleeping at the switch? Can we have a link to this announcement?

http://www.fin.gc.ca/notices-avis17/2017-07-17-eng.asp

#33 "Oh no, it's Morneau: Heist Alert on 07.17.17 at 7:36 pm

That means- watch your wallets, again. Bill likes to move the goalpost in the middle of the game, that’s how he plays, dirty pool: retroactive rule changes= lawlessness, like kicking over the chess board when you are losing, an admission of failure. Pay no attention to his words, just watch the cra site, it will be ‘updated’ of course to make sure Your money goes in the usual direction

#34 Howard on 07.17.17 at 7:36 pm

Let me just repeat my mantra/battle cry to politicians : No bailout for homeowners.

NO. BAILOUT. FOR. HOMEOWNERS.

#35 broader mind on 07.17.17 at 7:36 pm

First ,they take down real estate, tomorrow they take out the TSX. Maybe this is a real war on the rich. I just don’t see how it helps the middle class. Misery loves company?

#36 Willy H on 07.17.17 at 7:37 pm

When GTA and GVA housing is down 20-30% over last year’s values we can finally rejoice that the bubble has truly popped.

This fall and early spring 2018 will be very interesting to watch.

Even a 10% plop in prices since April is rather tame when the GTA, Barrie, Haliburton-Kawarthas and Oro-Medonte shot up between 30-50% year over year.

#37 I thinks I know something on 07.17.17 at 7:39 pm

Not to worry. At some point in the near future, Poloz will lower rates back 0.5. Or to 0.25. Or, maybe even to zero if need be!

#38 George on 07.17.17 at 7:39 pm

It doesn’t matter even if the price is going 50% off the price still too high, you need 80% adjustments to have
A normal place to buy a home !!

#39 Willy H on 07.17.17 at 7:41 pm

The “land want-ad” was posted on Kijiji and it speaks volumes to what is really happening in Oro-Medonte (just north of Barrie, Ontario) and Haliburton:

http://www.kijiji.ca/v-land-for-sale/barrie/seeking-land-in-oro-medonte-please-read/1278171811?enableSearchNavigationFlag=true

50 something and 60 something white flight is driving up prices in a wide swath of Ontario from Waterloo region to north-west of Ottawa.

#40 common sense on 07.17.17 at 7:41 pm

#8 Doug T.

We are now entering the reality phase of the recession that really started in 2009 and was only papered over by low interest rates and the TRILLIONS of $ in QE.

Hangover commence now…

#41 Smoking Man on 07.17.17 at 7:42 pm

#18 MF on 07.17.17 at 7:15 pm
This probably means now is the time to buy in the gta. There is a little but of fear but still tons of demand. Rates may rise a tiny bit but are most likely to be lowered again during the next “crisis”, which is an inevitability.

Condos (all anyone can afford) are actually up.

MF
…..

Could not aggree more. Still lots of sellers who bought before they sold. You can vaulch them good. People who dont need to sell will simply let there listings expire as is happening now. And remember the demand dident go away, its just sitting it out waiting for a bottom. 3 months of demand.

The property’s that are having the biggest price drops are the 2 million + range hence creating a false average price. House at around the million mark are holding there own. Not many selling but according. Teranet house index. July prices highest ever. Apples to Apples.

When have ever been wrong on 416 real estate in the 9 years of commenting on here.

Never. And im wrong now.

In fact I might split the proceeds of my place. 3 ways for my kids, so they have a shot at getting in at a discount before things turn on a dime when listings vanish this month and next.

Most people can’t see it. They didn’t see trump winning either.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.

#42 And I Quote on 07.17.17 at 7:46 pm

“True terror is to wake up one morning and discover that your high school class is running the country.”
Kurt Vonnegut Jr.

#43 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 07.17.17 at 7:51 pm

#15

“I don’t see anything online regarding a July 18th announcement. Are the media sleeping at the switch? Can we have a link to this announcement?”

http://www.fin.gc.ca/notices-avis17/2017-07-17-eng.asp

– A G: Q

#44 Asterix1 on 07.17.17 at 8:02 pm

#4 Tony the Gino on 07.17.17 at 6:58 pm
All I see in Woodbridge is prices going higher. Still can’t Afford anything. Townhouses listed for 899 now relisted for 1.2 million. It’s crazy.
___________________________________________

You posted the same wrong info last week. Once again, I have no idea what you are personally seeing?

West Woodbridge
https://www.zolo.ca/vaughan-real-estate/west-woodbridge/trends

East Woodbridge
https://www.zolo.ca/vaughan-real-estate/east-woodbridge/trends

Prices way down from highs, sales down, listings up.

#45 BobC on 07.17.17 at 8:06 pm

A little tax here a little tax there….
The literal death by a thousand cuts was an execution method in which the victim was slowly dismembered (Wikipedia), and has come more popularly to mean anything that is a slow process in which a multitude of small, bad things happen which ultimately culminate in the demise of whatever was suffering the changes (UE).May 19, 2016

#46 InvestorsFriend on 07.17.17 at 8:06 pm

Pumping a Stock?

From yesterday, number 162:

Did you just pump a stock you own? — Garth

****************************************
Well, depends on your definition of the word “pump” I mentioned that I thought a certain stock that has been in the news was a good bet after a recent decline and disclosed that I owned it and that I was therefore totally biased and that it was speculative. If I was “pumping”, I was not trying very hard.

Garth’s rebuke here was quite mild and if there was to be a rebuke at all I think it was right that it be mild.

If such a mild form of pumping is in any way unethical then I was not aware of that.

By the way, is it preferable that people steer people towards an investment that they themselves do not own?

When it comes to ethics I would think some common sense is needed. If someone wanted to pump and dump a stock they would choose a very thinly traded one, I suspect.

Actually I just wanted to get it on the record so I could brag later about being right. And I thought maybe a few people here might want to take a look at it. Will be no real benefit to me since it’s very liquid and therefore even the massive audience here is unlikely to push up the price and I am not selling in any case. In fact I plan to buy a bit more for a family member’s account tomorrow and so I just added to my competition.

#47 joe on 07.17.17 at 8:06 pm

I wonder how it will impact wives of rookie speculators and realtors who have already spent their virtual equity on expensive shoes and bags… the arrogance on social media is unbearable.

#48 DG on 07.17.17 at 8:07 pm

Remember, for the most part it was our idiot kids that voted these morons in to power. Whatever Bill takes from you subtract it from there allowance. The kids gotta learn actions have consequences.

#49 Smoking Man on 07.17.17 at 8:10 pm

DST (Daylight Selfie Time) Bahahaha

I’m using this on twitter

#50 George on 07.17.17 at 8:14 pm

It doesn’t matter even if the price is going 50% off the price still too high, you need 80% adjustments to have
A normal place to buy a home !! And I don’t see the market will come back to be normal !

#51 espressobob on 07.17.17 at 8:16 pm

No one believed crude oil would suffer downside a while back, or precious metals for that matter. Hype sucked in the sheep straight into the slaughterhouse.

Why is brick and mortar any different?

#52 Another Albertan on 07.17.17 at 8:18 pm

WUL (from July 15):

My company office is in one of the nicer buildings owned by the guy with the bullet-riddled Rolls-Royce.

The maintenance guy told us that occupancy in that building is effectively 50%. On a busy day, the underground parkade is 40% full.

Over Stampede, I had some corporate finance guys tell me about a number of energy companies with head lease exposure/impairments pushing $100M (beyond the majors like Cenovus, etc). We toured some opulent spaces about 9 months ago where the 2017 Op costs alone per square was 50% higher than what our total Lease+Op per square would be 7 years from now. Totally ridiculous.

Our parking is currently $400/mth/stall. Bankers Hall is still sitting at ~ $650.

Everyone else’s mileage may vary.

#53 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.17.17 at 8:21 pm

#39 Willy H on 07.17.17 at 7:41 pm
50 something and 60 something white flight is driving up prices in a wide swath of Ontario from Waterloo region to north-west of Ottawa.
…………………..
Same thing happening in the Okanagan. Cash out in Vancouver, move to Kelowna, prices rising sharply.

#54 ...catching its breath? on 07.17.17 at 8:29 pm

CREA on Toronto June $RE transactions:

June 2017: $6.33 billion
June 2016: $9.55 billion

I’d call that:

Out of breath.

That’s a low fewer commissions for Realtors I’d say.

A 33% salary cut on average, year over year?

#55 Entrepreneur on 07.17.17 at 8:30 pm

#43 Artic Gringo: Qalunaaq…Welcome and if really from the artic you must keep us updated on the weather changes up there. And other updates like animals, sea life and glaciers.

#56 Wrk.dover on 07.17.17 at 8:32 pm

Somehow this unwinding is going to cost the savers much more than the levered losers. Eventually. Wait and watch.

It is almost time to start singing Edmund Fitzgerald though.

#57 Livin Large on 07.17.17 at 8:32 pm

“Remember, for the most part it was our idiot kids that voted these morons in to power. Whatever Bill takes from you subtract it from there allowance. The kids gotta learn actions have consequences.” If only it were soooo simple.

Although there was a measurable up tick in the voting rate for Millenials and some (not much but some) strategic voting, a considerable cohort of Millenials voted NDP so in the end the majority Liberal government was driven very significantly by the 40+ middle class. By quantum of voters the Millenials made surprisingly little impact in determining the majority government.

#58 zee on 07.17.17 at 8:38 pm

I hear that its picking up in July. It was on BNN.
that was some short lived correction. all of 2 months.

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.17.17 at 8:38 pm

@#43 Investors Fiend
“Pumping a Stock?”
=====

Why so verbose?

Answer the question in one word……..

Yup.

#60 Rexx Rock on 07.17.17 at 8:39 pm

DELETED

#61 Marc Roger on 07.17.17 at 8:48 pm

TFSA going to 6000 for 2018. Huzzah.

#62 Smoking Man on 07.17.17 at 8:49 pm

What if Trump sends 100 of thousands of TN worker back to Canada. Where are they going to live? Rental Market is already too tight.

Here is a link to what might happen to TN Visas under trump. Makes a good case to buy a beach bar in St Marteen.

https://www.perchingtree.com/will-trumps-presidency-affect-tn-visa-canadians/

#63 ANON on 07.17.17 at 8:52 pm

It’s SO over, I’m eyeballing squirrels in the park.

#64 TAX AND SPEND AGAIN on 07.17.17 at 8:52 pm

Whoever Morneau says he is here to help is the ones he is going to rob. Government has no money unless they first take it from someone. Everybody else has to quit spending when they have no money except government. They change rules and tax somemore.

#65 Smoking Man on 07.17.17 at 8:53 pm

I can’t wait to claim my 10 years worth of disability tax credits in my last 10 years of huge income tax I’ve paid.

I will also enjoy my disability pension while managing a Bar in the tropics. I promise to only work 10 hours a week.

#66 ...cash out of YVR? on 07.17.17 at 8:56 pm

Still, prices are still about 53% higher than 3 years ago (as of Nov. 2016).

Since then list prices have declined continuously. Even now, July list price drops outnumber list price increases by about 2:1 (311 to 712).

July average list price drops:

Richmond -$119,000
Vancouver -$86,000
Burnaby -$73,000
Langley -$40,000
Abbotsford -$35,000
Coquitlam -$23,000
Surrey +$2,700

I would cash out now too in YVR but it seems the only RE moving is condos. My guess people fleeing YVR for the Okanagan because there is nothing affordable in YVR, well, yet.

List price drops continuous since Oct. 2016 which coincidentally is when YVR RE transactions dropped by 42% year over year ($3.52 billion to $2.04 billion). Sales volume down as well.

Matter of time before prices drop even more in YVR RE.

#67 History repeating itself on 07.17.17 at 8:59 pm

Achieve change. How? By creating a crisis? Best way is to create a bubble.

Princes of the Yen: Central Bank Truth Documentary

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY&t=276s

#68 Lee on 07.17.17 at 9:01 pm

#4 Tony the Gino,

To put it bluntly: You’re full of shit. You do realize we can all read?

#69 Smoking Man on 07.17.17 at 9:01 pm

My most favorite twitter poster hands down.

Sean Spicier‏ @sean_spicier

Best tweets ever

#70 Marco on 07.17.17 at 9:05 pm

Probably going to be some hilarious announcement on how the Ontario government will protect homeowners and bail them out from their stupid decisions.

#71 Bob dog on 07.17.17 at 9:05 pm

Oh my gods!

Will corporations, legal persons in the eyes of our corrupt puppet government, have to pay the same tax rate as actual human persons..

Will inheritance no longer be consider hard earned wealth.

Will the incompetent fools in Ottawa end the SR&ED tax payer handouts to our feeble tech indrustry who’s very business is research and development.

Will Canada soon return to the socialist paradise I grew up in and abandon its quest to become a shite copy of the USA

Let’s hope so because I would not get out of bed for what’s left of Canada today.

#72 Debtslavecreator on 07.17.17 at 9:07 pm

Sick and tired of this word fairness to steal money from middle income and upper income salaried workers
Free this, free that
We are simply following the classic path of social democracy into steady collapse due to out of control spending and debt resulting from the growing corruption that emanates from the fraudulent monetary policy and other government tools to centrally plan their scams
I am sick of the radical left wing criminals running this country
It is not fair to steal more wether from increasing taxes or borrowing more money to spend on projects that enrich the few politically connected
Equality has nothing to do with making us all equal
Equal is communism and if you want this be my guest and move to Venezuela, Cuba, NK or another left wing paradise ghetto
Stop using FAIR to steal !

#73 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.17.17 at 9:09 pm

#44 Asterix1

He is a troll realtor not worth the time but thanks for laying the smack down. Realtors are evil shysters who lie for money. they really are dirty lying shyster monsters .

#74 Adios on 07.17.17 at 9:15 pm

Been non-resident for 2 years and it’s never felt so good.
I can’t believe the amount of cheering going on to those that are now suffering from the current housing prices.
Yes there has been a lot speculation from persons seeking to make easy money but not everyone that owns a house falls into this category.For those of you so hell bent on watching the housing market implode should step back and assess if this will in some shape or form affect their livelihood.Canadians have become so engrossed in this market we don’t even talk about the weather anymore.We all had a part to play in allowing the creation of this bubble starting with easy money,credit card solicitations to teenagers by our banks and inept politicians.Our ministers get appointed in fields they have no clue about but feel no remorse in calling in consultants to do their jobs.
Don’t miss seeing the smirking faces of Mr T and Wynn on every news channel or newspaper.At least my tax dollars aren’t going to Kadrs retirement fund or Mr T’s
vacations on your tax dollar jet.How noble to reimburse
the cost based on an economy class ticket,as if he walks so far back on an aircraft.
For the statisticians on this blog sold the Oakville abode 2 weeks ago 2% below asking.Happy days.

#75 RockyBalboa on 07.17.17 at 9:27 pm

This might be what he’s announcing:

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/07/17/ottawa-to-target-tax-loophole-exploited-by-wealthy-canadians.html

Yes, as I surmised – the promised assault on incorporations! — Garth

#76 yorkville renter on 07.17.17 at 9:31 pm

some random thoughts:

Garth, today’s post is a longer version of my comment earlier today on yesterday’s article – that [email protected] Bank is full of poop saying “soft landing” as we know that’s NEVER happened.

#4 Tony the Gino – ridiculous comment. People can ask whatever price they want, what they sell at matters. Also ridiculous is when people list a house for $0.60 on the $1 and when it sells for a $1 they proclaim how insane the market is.

#18 MF – no, now is a terrible time to buy. It took a decade to grow – buying after a 3 month drop is way too early, unless you absolutely need to buy (and no one does)

#25 Alberta Ed – c’mon man – grow up. What makes you think the government wanted to give Kadr any money? You think Trudeau woke up and said “hey, let’s pay this guy”. How many lawyers do you think debated what to do and told the PM what the best course of action is? Where was the outrage when Maher Arar got $10.5mm?

As for Wild Bill… I lament any changes as I’m FINALLY make great money as a business owner – PLEASE don’t take away all the good stuff – it makes no sense to punish independent people who happen to have a skill in demand!

#77 I thinks I know something on 07.17.17 at 9:33 pm

#51 espressobob on 07.17.17 at 8:16 pm

No one believed crude oil would suffer downside a while back, or precious metals for that matter. Hype sucked in the sheep straight into the slaughterhouse.
Why is brick and mortar any different?

———————————————————–

It’s different because normal market forces are not at work. At least 100,000 population influx. Probably much more. CMHC insurance subsidized mortgages. Massive foreign investment. Etc. The market in TO will bounce back. Anybody hoping prices will fall back to 2014/2015 level will be disappointed.

#78 Sir James on 07.17.17 at 9:35 pm

A $One Million capital gains exemption limit on principle residence, to be ratcheted down to $500,000 over the next few years. The Tax Free part of winning the housing lottery will end. What’s the average middle class home price in Canada?

#79 Smoking Man on 07.17.17 at 9:37 pm

Im calling bull shit on this.

Shooting the shit with son number 3. Number 1 im my heart. Clone with hair.

Im at my nefews wedding on the week end, this dude claims to be a Hollywood big wig. Read my book cause my nefew told him about it. He thought its amazing and let’s make a movie. He’s a writer actor. Guy was dressed like shit at a wedding that I printed the invitations and stated formal wedding.

He’s at the 35 minute mark white shirt, no tie, ugly shoes. . I need to respond to an email. That sounds to good to be true is this dude real or just a stoner.
Help me dogs, my wife watches movies I get drunk and type.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/bDwLDjFkclFlWmdKZWRZS2J8MWRSS1puenlwdnZLQkYzkC2LBhIw4bT0z7Dz234ht6hhfdAunvQebvZp7bAg

#80 aa3 on 07.17.17 at 9:42 pm

One sort of sad, but also funny thing is Canadians believe that both the government and banks are on their side.

The government is on the side of the government. The banks are on the side of the banks.

While a housing boom was useful for the CDN government to move through the great recession and the commodities returning to their falling trendline..

It is no longer useful for the CDN government, for Canada to be deploying all of its capital to unproductive assets.

Millions of financially wrecked Canadian families who took idiotic amount of debt in the housing bubble.. are a problem for those families, but not a problem for the Canadian government.

Eg.. did the US housing bust cause mass layoffs in Washington? If anything there was an expansion of Washington with the stimulus measures.

The government is also not the shareholders of the big banks. If the shares of those big banks all fall 90%, is that harmful to the Federal government… no.

#81 OttawaGuyRenting on 07.17.17 at 9:44 pm

#47 joe on 07.17.17 at 8:06 pm
I wonder how it will impact wives of rookie speculators and realtors who have already spent their virtual equity on expensive shoes and bags… the arrogance on social media is unbearable.
————

My god yes! I’m one of those FB users with too many contacts.
Ages 27-40 in my timeline all selfies all the time – new car! Just back from VT for Vacah!!!
Just put in the big deck!!!
OMG we had Becta again this time with Sara and Ellie!!! ($400 meal a couple min)

NONE of these people earn my money. All have had houses here since 2008 or so

Only one dOod told me over a 67s game he was worried about budget wife just spent on full remodel LOC on house. That was in Jan. He’s working part time now.

Macro look into my circle but it must be par for the course?

#82 yorkville renter on 07.17.17 at 9:50 pm

#60 – I think I knows something

I think you’re wrong – again. It’s NOT different this time. Your tired ideas on why it’s different were exactly the same as those made in the 90s.

Yes, the Toronto market will bounce back but first it has to hit bottom before it can bounce back up. It won’t be in a couple months.

How can ANYONE ignore that free mortgages (after considering inflation) helped on the way up and rising rates will help on the way down.

Also, CMHC is WAY down in regard to new insurance because of new rules and too much R.E. is above $1mm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-mortgage-housing-1.4137986

#83 Tony on 07.17.17 at 9:52 pm

Re: #4 Tony the Gino on 07.17.17 at 6:58 pm

Woodbridge is in the middle of nowhere, try another city in the middle of nowhere where the prices are more reasonable.

#84 MF on 07.17.17 at 9:54 pm

#41 Smoking Man on 07.17.17 at 7:42 pm

100%.

Lots of premature celebrations here, just like Vancouver’s short lived “correction”.

I see very little change in the perception of real estate here in the gta among my prime family forming older millennial generation. Everyone still hates renting, and wants to buy a place to start a life.

BTW Trump is doing great down south, in spite of all the moaning and complaining.

MF

#85 Mark on 07.17.17 at 9:57 pm

“Will the incompetent fools in Ottawa end the SR&ED tax payer handouts to our feeble tech indrustry who’s very business is research and development.”

Sure hope so. Consultants make a lot more money on the SR&ED program than do actual scientists and engineers. It seems to encourage a lot of what should be ordinary business activities to be creatively “re-cast” as being R&D under the guise of qualifying for the credit. *Every* medium to large business, and even many small businesses should be doing R&D in the ordinary course of business, and it shouldn’t take a special tax credit in order to incentivize this.

The government is also not the shareholders of the big banks. If the shares of those big banks all fall 90%, is that harmful to the Federal government… no.

Various pensions plans are, but the chances of the big banks falling or failing is zero. Far more likely is that they do incredibly well in the asset rotation away from RE and towards stocks. Spread expansion on risky housing-backed debt should be quite a nice tailwind for them as well. Remember the 1990s where the average Canadian big bank quadrupled (despite a falling housing market), with total returns in the 400% range.

#86 NoName on 07.17.17 at 10:03 pm

#167 Mike in Toronto on 07.17.17 at 8:14 pm

Maybe that dude is genius, there are ways to earn full time income during school hours. It’s done, all the time.

Friends son’s is putting him self through university by selling virtual goods for world of Warcraft. Don’t know how he does but he does it.

It would be nice of him to revile at least his master and phd thesis that would give us some insight.

#87 Smoking Man on 07.17.17 at 10:06 pm

Why am I seeing your post but not mine, I’m thinking…

#88 Livin Large on 07.17.17 at 10:09 pm

Welllll, back on topic.
Here comes a new flavour of the Lifetime Capital Gains including principal residence exemption to go with the new reporting requirements for residential property sales.

#89 Sydneysider on 07.17.17 at 10:10 pm

#7 dangeresque2

This weekly blog will answer your questions about Edmonton.

http://www.livrealestate.ca/blog/

In a nutshell, no dramatic price changes, sales down a bit, listings drifting upwards.

#90 Van Isle Renter on 07.17.17 at 10:11 pm

# 19 Alex Prikhodko

“When I saw the actual report on TV l was quite shocked with what I saw. ”

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Global is the worst with the FAKE NEWS. We just fast forward through anything regarding US politics now. Reason is simple: we watched a Trump press conference a couple of months ago and what ended up on Global had both my wife and I shaking our heads. There was nothing in the Global broadcast that had anything remotely to do with what Trump said. No wonder he has Twitter Storms. No choice.

If you’re watching Global for anything other than the eye candy factor you’re a fool.

#91 yorkville renter on 07.17.17 at 10:17 pm

MF BTW Trump is doing great down south, in spite of all the moaning and complaining.

well, that seals it for me – you are officially 100% troll

what exactly has Trump done that’s so great?
provide specific actions and outcomes to demonstrate.

#92 Shortymac on 07.17.17 at 10:20 pm

Adventures in the Rental Market!!!

Still looking for a place, I’ve been seeing tons of failed flips on the market for exorbitant prices.

One place near Yonge and Finch had ripped up carpets and the landlord refused to put edging down and thinks he’ll sell it in a year. Asking 2300/mon. No thanks.

Just got back from another place that was literally falling apart and hadn’t been touched since the mid 1970s. The carpets where completely threadbare and had holes in them. Asking 2100/mon! No thanks!

I’m wondering now is the time to vulch or approach some of these distressed sellers with offers to rent or rent to own.

How the heck do rent to owns work anyway?Are they a scam? Can you walk away from it or do you have to agree on a price ahead of time?

#93 Smoking Man on 07.17.17 at 10:22 pm

Why am I seeing your posts? Am i in purgatory, I’m thinking…

@mike from Toronto, it’s easier for me to believe that one student can pull something like that, than that we will all be realestate Moguls, in Canada. Just off are so much in favor of PhD dude story.

NoName

#94 NoName on 07.17.17 at 10:22 pm

Aa

#95 jay on 07.17.17 at 10:30 pm

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/NAFTAObjectives.pdf Here is Trumps wish list for NAFTA Lets see how Junior performs .The final paragraph mentions currency manipulation ,maybe they mean interest rate.

#96 Tony on 07.17.17 at 10:31 pm

Re: #71 I thinks I know something on 07.17.17 at 9:33 pm

Depending on what the 100,000 population influx is can push property prices downwards not upwards. The line about population influx is another line of garbage from real estate agents and public media supporting the real estate industry with falsehoods.

#97 Jeremy on 07.17.17 at 10:36 pm

Holding onto my down payment for the big bust…then BUY

#98 Greater Fool on 07.17.17 at 10:36 pm

LET PRICES SINK LIKE A STONE

#99 Tony on 07.17.17 at 10:44 pm

Re: #7 dangeresque2 on 07.17.17 at 7:03 pm

I saw an inordinate amount of sales go through in Edmonton just after interest rates were increased. This can only mean there were offers that were not accepted until rates rose and the sellers bailed. This means home prices will move downwards at a faster pace.

#100 InvestorsFriend on 07.17.17 at 10:44 pm

Governent Money

#58 TAX AND SPEND AGAIN on 07.17.17 at 8:52 pm said:

Whoever Morneau says he is here to help is the ones he is going to rob. Government has no money unless they first take it from someone. Everybody else has to quit spending when they have no money except government. They change rules and tax somemore.

************************************
One (misguided) view is that all money comes from the wealth created by the private sector.

To what extent are taxes on the population simply fair compensation for valuable government services that are not user pay. Like the courts, security, police, education, roads, other public works and health care?

If a worker creates value he expects to receive “money” which is an intangible claim form that can be used to purchase goods and services.

Does a government that creates value deserve some of these claim forms (money) in order to pay its workers?

#101 45north on 07.17.17 at 10:47 pm

Look at this chart. Amazing. The 14.2% plunge in average prices in Toronto over the last 90 days is the steepest dive on record. Right back to 1988 when Boomers first discovered they could scratch out average and median monthly stats on their cave walls. If this experience is repeated over the next 90 days, this real estate correction will be the steepest, swiftest one in modern Canadian history.

maybe that’s what Dominoes had in mind:

from Friday’s post : Big dominoes are falling in the last few weeks, the biggest in years. The ground is now trembling.
Underlying it all, how weak is the financial situation of so much of the masses.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/07/14/home/#comment-528185

what’s going on? It’s the middle of July! Nothing happens.

#102 Stan brooks on 07.17.17 at 11:00 pm

Interesting topic. The comming death of the canadian small busubess corporations.

Bill compares tax advantages but missess the lack of benefits, pensionsm uncertainties for the small business owners.

He compares incomes but misses expences, long ours, stress, risk, lack of regular income, uncertsinties.

Idiot talking about fair share. So glad i left.

#103 Andrewt on 07.17.17 at 11:07 pm

#72 Debtslavecreator on 07.17.17 at 9:07 pm
Sick and tired of this word fairness to steal money from middle income and upper income salaried workers
Free this, free that
We are simply following the classic path of social democracy into steady collapse due to out of control spending and debt resulting from the growing corruption that emanates from the fraudulent monetary policy and other government tools to centrally plan their scams
I am sick of the radical left wing criminals running this country
It is not fair to steal more wether from increasing taxes or borrowing more money to spend on projects that enrich the few politically connected
Equality has nothing to do with making us all equal
Equal is communism and if you want this be my guest and move to Venezuela, Cuba, NK or another left wing paradise ghetto
Stop using FAIR to steal !

Under the law. Equality is about everyone being equal under the law. It’s a cornerstone of democracy.
Good grief.
And financially? Even communist countries aren’t communist.

#104 Myra Andrews on 07.17.17 at 11:09 pm

July stats for Vancouver area
Below is for Metro Vancouver but not the Fraser Valley

July 17 New 362 Sold 162 TI: 9767
July 14 New 164 Sold 109 TI: 9698
July 12 New 288 Sold 184 TI: 9702
July 11 New 282 Sold 148 TI: 9635
July 10 New 399 Sold 147 TI: 9576
July 6 and 7 New 387 Sold 273 TI: 9404

Both real estate boards GVRD + FVRB

=====New Sold Sell List %
July 17 477 228 47.8%
July 14 319 145 45.4%
July 13 301 251 83.4%
July 12 448 243 54.2%
July 11 444 251 56.5%
July 10 588 224 38.1%
July 7 368 201 54.6%
July 6 374 225 60.2%
July 5 502 231 46.0%
July 4 696 195 28.0%

#105 Entrepreneur on 07.17.17 at 11:20 pm

Good thinking #80 on the Government, Banks, and using the U.S. as an example. But some banks did go down and I imagine the government did some slimming but always add to make their job numbers look good.

And the only time the government really listens to us is at election time. That is the only time that we have a say to make a difference. That is why Brexit won, Trump won.

And thanks #95 jay on the U.S. NAFTA Agreement, printed it out. I like the Environment section “Bring the environment provisions into the core of the Agreement rather than in a side agreement.” And good for Trump, whip everyone into attention!

#106 Tony on 07.17.17 at 11:31 pm

Re: #23 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.17.17 at 7:26 pm

Tell Tony the Gino to change his name to Tony the G Note. My father always referred to a thousand dollar bill as a G Note.

#107 Contrarian Coyote on 07.17.17 at 11:46 pm

What I don’t understand is how some homeowners think ‘the gubment’ is going to bail them out if things go sideways and prices really crash. First, the argument is “prices will never go down – real estate always goes up!” Then, if we’re not convinced, it’s “Well, IF prices do slip and go down, the gubmint will step in to prevent a crash. How can the second thing happen if the first is as sure as the sun rising and setting?

Just to indulge this fantasy, what do these people think the gubmint would do? Cut them a check for the peak price of their home? The absurdity of this is laughable. I had a conversation over coffee about this today. I straight up asked my relative this: so in the event of a collapsing real estate market – do you honestly think the federal and provincial governments are going to compensate you? Crickets and then changed the subject. Hahaha, the fear was real in his eyes. Sorry cuz, you’re either in for a loss if you sell or gotta hold that house for a lot longer.

#108 Madcat on 07.17.17 at 11:52 pm

Bill’s gonna pull yet another freakin rabbit out of the hat… Commies!!!!

#109 MF on 07.17.17 at 11:53 pm

#91 yorkville renter on 07.17.17 at 10:17 pm

That’s it. Disagree with a comment or point of view and call it trolling. Here’s a few:

1) Leaving TPP was a smart move. It was one sided against the US/North America.

2) Starting pumping oil/trying to revive the American oil industry

3) NAFTA renegotiation. If done right, might actually yield some positives for Canada.

4) Interest rate normalization. This is speculation, but it does look like since we have had Trump in power, CB’s are discussing rate normalization more.

5) Persuaded SA to get tough on Qatar.

All in all, more walk than talk if you ask me.

MF

#110 recent on 07.17.17 at 11:56 pm

So, those price drops must be a recent phenomenon.
Because Teranet has june still up hard, for the entire country.

As a matter of fact, a record increase.

https://housepriceindex.ca/2017/07/june2017/

#111 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.18.17 at 12:54 am

Sick and tired of this word fairness to steal money from middle income and upper income salaried workers
———————————————————–
In the end it will come down to “your clothes may be nothing but rags but you possess wearable shoes, and others don’t, that’s not fair so hand them over”. OR “we’re afraid that you might trade those shoes for drugs so we’re confiscating them through civil asset forfeiture as part of our new crime-prevention policies.”

#112 TRT on 07.18.17 at 12:57 am

Prices are at record highs in the Fraser Valley of Vancouver.

People shouting that a crisis is here….hoping government won’t enact housing policy to hurt real estate…all lies to obtain a goal. Will sheep buy it?

Again, record high prices. Detached house in Abbotsford went from $400,000 to $800,000 in 24 months!

#113 domain on 07.18.17 at 1:33 am

“One (misguided) view is that all money comes from the wealth created by the private sector.

To what extent are taxes on the population simply fair compensation for valuable government services that are not user pay. Like the courts, security, police, education, roads, other public works and health care?

If a worker creates value he expects to receive “money” which is an intangible claim form that can be used to purchase goods and services.

Does a government that creates value deserve some of these claim forms (money) in order to pay its workers?”
============================

How is it misguided to acknowledge the fact that wealth is generated by the private sector and not the government? The private sector creates the goods and services which are traded with other nations.

Please elaborate how you think the government creates wealth? Every single penny (rounded to the nearest 5 cents now) that the Government spends comes either from taxation, or from borrowing against future taxation revenue (your kids and grandkids).

Since the government produces no products, unless you consider the paper and ink used to document the numerous and changing laws, you may argue that they provide ‘services’. However, the participation in these services is not voluntary in most cases, and in 100% of the cases the participation in payment is not voluntary, and is punishable by law. The private sector does not have that luxury of forced participation, and must earn the money they receive in exchange for their goods and services.

Regarding what extent the taxes are fair, how about we start with the same taxation rate for everyone, regardless of income. How is it not fair that I pay 50% tax and others pay 20% or less tax (and I’m talking about individuals as well as corps)? If you really want fair, lets go with a flat tax across the board for individuals and corporations, and eliminate the deductions for all of them. Then you will have a truly fair tax system, which would also have the benefit of putting individuals, small business and large businesses on the same footing for competition as opposed to letting large corporations have the cake. Then we will have a ‘fair’ tax, and should that fair flat tax rise to an unacceptable level, then everyone will equally suffer and acknowledge this fact instead of 1% of the population with their voices drowned-out by the populist chants of “fair share!”.

The worst part of forced payment (taxation) for forced services by the government is that there is no competition for them. And without competition, you will not get the best, most efficient services, rather you are guaranteed to get the worst services for the most amount of money.

So without burning more time, I believe the answer to your question is a resounding NO! Nobody deserves anyone else’s money or property, and that includes the government…

#114 I thinks I know something on 07.18.17 at 1:35 am

#96 Tony on 07.17.17 at 10:31 pm
Re: #71 I thinks I know something on 07.17.17 at 9:33 pm

Depending on what the 100,000 population influx is can
push property prices downwards not upwards. The line about population influx is another line of garbage from real estate agents and public media supporting the real estate industry with falsehoods.

———————————————————-

Population influx in TO is a falsehood? Really?

#115 paulo on 07.18.17 at 1:40 am

i think we should be looking at wild bill going after the
capitol gains exemption on personal residences. this is by far the biggest gold field they could dig into for new tax revenue. expect a cap limit and graduated tax on amounts above. eventually its going to be gone. they will likely increase TFSA limits as a give back.

#116 BS on 07.18.17 at 2:07 am

In its quarterly financial results posted Tuesday, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said that it insured just over 48,000 new mortgages between January and March, a 41 per cent decline from the previous three-month period.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-mortgage-housing-1.4137986

I guess we now know why last years CMHC stress test had little impact on the market. In Jan to Mar CMHC mortgages down 41% yet real estate was booming. CMHC mortgages should have been up.

Looks like last years CMHC stress test changes shifted the unqualified buyers to conventional mortgages. They get a private lender to lend the down payment to qualify for a conventional mortgage with no stress test required. With the coming OSFI changes to require conventional mortgages to be stress tested it shuts that 41% down, along with stress testing the existing conventional mortgages. The new OSFI changes will be massive.

#117 april on 07.18.17 at 3:03 am

Ross Kay also says housing going down and will be in full correction by August.

#118 Stock picker on 07.18.17 at 3:53 am

DELETED

#119 NoName on 07.18.17 at 5:30 am

Google searches for real estate bubble up 41% in past week.

http://imgur.com/a/blevC

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=CA&q=real%20estate%20bubble

#120 NoName on 07.18.17 at 5:53 am

Interesting everyone that is born between 1977 and 1983 according to Australian professor Dan Woodman is generation that should be called Xennials.

http://didyouknowfacts.com/theres-now-a-name-for-the-micro-generation-born-between-1977-1983/?tse_id=INF_892d28005b8711e790011d41b85aaeb5

#121 Here's The Deal on 07.18.17 at 6:41 am

#7 Dangeresque2

“Lots of info about GTA… Does anyone have a pulse on how the Edmonton market is doing?”
——————————————————————–

Here’s the deal:

Edmonton has no pulse.

http://img06.deviantart.net/df34/i/2010/064/7/6/no_pulse_by_bpknicks.jpg

#122 Wrk.dover on 07.18.17 at 6:51 am

Morneau is going to lead all of the financial journalists present into awaiting busses at the back door, and relocate them to a secret location with no wifi or cell coverage, permanently.

Paranoia comes easy these days. Fake everything.

Genuine Garth though! Thankfully.

#123 Bobby Racks on 07.18.17 at 7:09 am

This could very well trigger a massive recession across Canada… Guess who’s gonna take the fall? Bye, bye, Junior.. Back to the drama classroom for you… oh wait, no jobs in teaching these days.. Maybe he’ll live off his wife’s family fortune..

#124 maxx on 07.18.17 at 7:11 am

#35 broader mind on 07.17.17 at 7:36 pm

“First ,they take down real estate, tomorrow they take out the TSX. Maybe this is a real war on the rich. I just don’t see how it helps the middle class. Misery loves company?”

There will never be a war on the rich, only a msm pantomime for the plebes.
There will, however be a series of moves that aim to restore value to money by way of closing off levels of reckless borrowing that we’ve witnessed over the past decade.

This debt lunacy began around the year 2000, but went parabolic after the GFC.

People need money, government at all levels needs money, yet the spending structure preserves costs unabated. Entirely up to wallets to react to corporate and government cost increases.

Austerity is a war on the middle class, makes things worse and comes nowhere near solving deficits, let alone debt.

Good jobs are key to solving this problem. Not happening – service jobs mostly. Corps have been plumping and staging balance sheets by ejecting workers and selling off strategic body parts. Sitting on mountains of cash.

Like many savers. Take your saving and spending cues from corporations.

You’ll do just fine. Remember, you’re not a cheapskate, you’re simply using smart business methodology, just like the big boys.

#125 A Reply to #46 InvestorsFriend on 07.18.17 at 7:33 am

“It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is.”
— Bill Clinton

#126 Andrew t on 07.18.17 at 8:07 am

#91 yorkville renter on 07.17.17 at 10:17 pm

That’s it. Disagree with a comment or point of view and call it trolling. Here’s a few:

1) Leaving TPP was a smart move. It was one sided against the US/North America.

— TPP is still being negotiated, it’s not ratified. So this accomplished nothing.

2) Starting pumping oil/trying to revive the American oil industry

–he did what now? I could be wrong here, but production has been pretty constant. Keystone helps Canada export more oil.

3) NAFTA renegotiation. If done right, might actually yield some positives for Canada.

–see #1. Jack shit has happened yet.

4) Interest rate normalization. This is speculation, but it does look like since we have had Trump in power, CB’s are discussing rate normalization more.

–how is this Trump’s doing? Did he mandate this? That’s a result of things that were already happening.

5) Persuaded SA to get tough on Qatar.
— like they needed persuading. SA hates Qatar because they are helping SA’s rival, Iran. Until the U.S. Gets tough on SA, and calls it out for being the original and largest breeding ground of jihadists, we’re running in circles.

All in all, more walk than talk if you ask me.

– no meaningful legislation, and no interest in creating any. Not unifying the country, not by a long shot. No coherent plan at all, just a bunch of throw-it-against-the-wall-and-see-if-it-sticks talking points. And some laughable PR optics. (Look- it’s Trump behind the wheel of a fire truck- vroom vroom!)
Maybe something will coalesce later but so far nothing has.

#127 jess on 07.18.17 at 8:08 am

common reporting standards

…”Numbers a mystery

Just how many Canadians and non-residents with bank accounts in Canada could be affected by the new deal is still a mystery.

Anawati says the CRA has no idea how many secret bank accounts Canadians have around the world.

“We can’t even estimate at this point because it’s information that we don’t have. Once we start receiving the information, we expect that there will be many accounts that we will learn about.”

When asked how many of their accounts belong to non-residents, each of Canada’s six big banks referred the CBC to the Canadian Bankers Association, which said it doesn’t know.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tax-evasion-banks-cra-1.4209208

Morneau has said the government found “issues” around professionals who incorporate. Three problems include income “sprinkling” to family; holding money inside a corporation to shield it from personal tax rates; and using capital gains rules to further cut tax bills.

“There is a concern that, in some cases, people — usually high-income people — may be gaining an unfair tax advantage, legal as it may be,” Morneau said, adding the government would soon “release a discussion paper looking at these tax-planning schemes in more detail, and laying out potential policy responses.”

===========
deferred prosecution agreements
http://www.transparencycanada.ca/news/new-transparency-international-canada-report-another-arrow-quiver-consideration-deferred-prosecution-agreement-scheme-canada/?

DRAFT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT LEGISLATIVE RESOLUTION on the proposal for a Council directive on a Common Corporate Tax Base (COM(2016)0685 – C8-0472/2016 – 2016/0337(CNS)) (17 Jul 2017)

#128 yorkville renter on 07.18.17 at 8:25 am

109… it’s a disagreement on virtually every post – not just one.

#1 – the only thing in your list Trump actually did; whether it’s good or not is yet to be seen.

#2 – Trump started oil extraction? What decree did that?

#3 – NAFTA renegotiation hasnt even started, but it’s already a win? seems odd.

#4 – Normalization of rates has 0 to do with Trump. If it did, we all know he would be taking credit… the man never misses a chance to congratulate himself.

#5 – SA getting tough on Qatar? Why did he do that? What’s the benefit? Why did the US sell $15BN in arms to Qatar last month? Was it to spite Obama, since thhese deals take some time to make happen.

How about all the f-ups?

#1 – cant get his own party to pass a health care law after 7 years of saying they’ll make it happen.

#2 – embarassingly backtracks on a Russian/US cyber security partnership.

#3 – too obtuse to understand what collusion is and why it’s wrong.

#4 – constant lies and twitter tirades making him look as small and petty as a vengeful mouse.

#5 – no wall

It’s even funnier when people say he’s being obstructed when you consider what the GOP did to Obama for 8 years.

This guy, like RE in Canada, is overvalued and going down fast

#129 jess on 07.18.17 at 8:26 am

trump mortgages

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-mortgage-economy-2006-2008-crash-a6904796.html

#130 Headhunter on 07.18.17 at 8:50 am

#91 yorkville renter on 07.17.17 at 10:17 pm
#126 Andrew t on 07.18.17 at 8:07 am

Re trump.. what he HAS done is prove beyond a shadow of doubt is 1. Democracy doesn’t work ( not unless I win) He won the vote and still he is getting the shaft at every turn.
My candidate didnt win so I wont accept the vote.

2. The MSM is dead Liars.. nothing more then bad PR.

3> the shadow gov’t or hidden hand(s) are alive and well for all to see..

Buckle up buttercups

HH

#131 Curiosity killed the cat on 07.18.17 at 9:02 am

Garth,
Help me understand have the Bilderbergers like Morneau turned Commie…I mean we know they are creatures of darkness… but this is NWO a brave new world out in the open. Is T2 the lesser also a reptillian like his finance minister…. :-)

#132 Ole Doberman on 07.18.17 at 9:38 am

#1 TRUMP on 07.17.17 at 6:55 pm

When it’s all said and done don’t forget I told you so.

I’ll still be the President and the markets will keep driving higher.

Dow 40000 TSX 25000
——————————————————–
All the spec money will be coming out of bonds and real estate as rates rise and moving to equities – stocks will rise to unbelievable jaw dropping levels.

#133 IHCTD9 on 07.18.17 at 9:44 am

#115 paulo on 07.18.17 at 1:40 am
i think we should be looking at wild bill going after the
capitol gains exemption on personal residences. this is by far the biggest gold field they could dig into for new tax revenue. expect a cap limit and graduated tax on amounts above. eventually its going to be gone. they will likely increase TFSA limits as a give back.
________________________________________

Risky stuff, a lot of employment and income generation going on with houses. I know many that would suffer income decimation if it were not for a continual stream of building/selling a primary residence.

Hard to choose, as these folks are also definitely pushing house prices up to the max.

Well, I guess Bill gets to choose the lesser evil. He’s got to do something to cool our appetite for debt in preparation of the near future, and he’ll have to deal with the revenue fallout that will follow with any success in that endeavor.

Thankfully, there will be little he can do to increase my personal overall tax contributions to his government.

#134 Mike in Toronto on 07.18.17 at 9:45 am

#93 Smoking Man

He surfs and skiis. These are not the hobbies of somebody living in a Scarborough basement or anybody even slightly shrewd.

If the story is true, his family has political roots and landed him a plum job on graduation, he probably lived on the family estate until he was 30, when he moved in with the girlfriend in her family home who’s parents “rented” to them for the cost of utilities, taxes etc. while they retired at the summer home in the Bahamas.

What bugs me about it is not that he’s rich. It’s your duty to take every advantage your parents give you, they worked hard to get you ahead in life. It’s the condescending refrain of “just work hard, like me, and don’t spend frivilously, like me.” from somebody who has such advantages.

I think my first time skiing was when I was 36. Expensive hobby. It also requires at least a rental car. I didn’t see a beach I could surf at until I was 39. I don’t even know anyone who surfs.

#135 IHCTD9 on 07.18.17 at 9:52 am

#100 InvestorsFriend on 07.17.17 at 10:44 pm

One (misguided) view is that all money comes from the wealth created by the private sector.

_______

Yikes!

#136 A Reply to #113 domain on 07.18.17 at 10:00 am

You neglected to discuss the nature of public goods (non-excludable and non-rivalrous) and the lack of incentives for the private sector to provide them (leading to their underproduction without a public sector).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_good

You also neglected to discuss the free-rider problem.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free-rider_problem

You also seem to be unaware of market failure and economic inefficiency.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_failure

#137 Capt. Serious on 07.18.17 at 10:02 am

I tried to convince my rapidly aging parents that they should sell their house at the edge of the 416 last year and this spring, but they were not ready. Now I suppose when they come to sell they’re going to end up with several hundred thousand less than they would have had. At least they’re not desperate for the money, having reasonably managed their finances throughout their lives.

#138 Lee on 07.18.17 at 10:05 am

According to a new study by the Fraser Institute household debt level warnings are overblown. Suck it up debt fear mongerers.

#139 Renter's Revenge! on 07.18.17 at 10:11 am

TIL I’m a “Xennial”. Life changing stuff!

OTOH as long as tax changes don’t hurt me, they’re “fair”.

#140 Hockey is my life on 07.18.17 at 10:21 am

#16 Smoking Man on 07.17.17 at 7:14 pm

I picked a great time to leave CommiCan
______________________________________
Don’t let the door slam on your chicken shit ass as you
Uber it out of the greatest country to live in bar none. I am tired of your rants on this country. “When the going gets tough, the tough get going” doesn’t mean you run away. We have endured socialist governments before and inevitably they always fail and fall. It hurts but after a while people realize what a bunch of losers they are. Then we start over. That my friend is politics. Unlike a real communist country the government never changes. Just the faces!
So suck it up dumbo and get a job, or get into politics and make a difference. If you do leave Canada then please revoke your citizenship cause we don’t need people like you who can’t contribute in a meaningful fashion to the success of this great country.

#141 saskatoon on 07.18.17 at 10:35 am

#113 domain

addendum:

government employees should legally be required to surrender all suffrage rights upon hiring.

#142 paulo on 07.18.17 at 10:35 am

#133
agreed that it is risky going after the principal residence exemption.
fact is that any way you slice the cake somebody is going to loose a piece to the tax man
the premises is acting in support of the middle class
going after small business that are the primary new employment creators to the middle class could be far more damaging and will not provide much political mileage.
going after the residence exemption will provide plenty of political mileage be very profitable and highly visible to the middle class in the form of adding further fuel to the current real estate correction making houses more affordable for the middle class…. umm well we shall know soon enough.

#143 Meh no great tragedy on 07.18.17 at 10:37 am

#137 Capt. Serious on 07.18.17 at 10:02 am
I tried to convince my rapidly aging parents that they should sell their house at the edge of the 416 last year and this spring, but they were not ready. Now I suppose when they come to sell they’re going to end up with several hundred thousand less than they would have had. At least they’re not desperate for the money, having reasonably managed their finances throughout their lives.

————————————————————————–

Meh, no great tragedy. I’m sure they are wonderful people. So they won’t be able to gut some poor soul for their bricks and dirt for 100% of
absolute insanity. Like everyone else, they don’t deserve the perverse gains and did nothing but eat, sleep and poop in their home in the beat up old meat locker we call the GTA. Had someone told them their mortar and windows was worth what it is today when they 1st bought, they never would have believed it.

#144 saskatoon on 07.18.17 at 10:38 am

#140 Hockey is my life

WOW!

This dude has the stockholm BAD!

;)

#145 Meh no great tragedy on 07.18.17 at 10:45 am

#138 Lee on 07.18.17 at 10:05 am
According to a new study by the Fraser Institute household debt level warnings are overblown. Suck it up debt fear mongerers.

————————————————————————–

Well screw what every other worldwide institution and economist says, as long as the venerable Fraser Institute claims we doing just fine right?

Feel stupid yet?

#146 InvestorsFriend on 07.18.17 at 10:54 am

Domain at 113 responded to me with good arguments about government and tax. I agree with some but not all of his points. I address his response below:

“How is it misguided to acknowledge the fact that wealth is generated by the private sector and not the government? The private sector creates the goods and services which are traded with other nations.”

Response: Trade is not necessary to create wealth. The earth as a whole trades with no other planet. The government creates many valuable services about which more below.

“Please elaborate how you think the government creates wealth? Every single penny (rounded to the nearest 5 cents now) that the Government spends comes either from taxation, or from borrowing against future taxation revenue (your kids and grandkids).”

Response: Money is just an intangible thing without inherent value that serves to facilitate commerce and record who gets what and to measure wealth. Certain infrastructure is absolutely necessary in order for the private sector to create wealth. This includes ports and roads and more importantly the rule of law (enforcement of contracts, safety of person, relative freedom from theft). In addition the government creates wealth when it owns water utilities and power utilities (except in Ontario it tends to waste). Education and health are essential to wealth and are mostly government provided.

“Since the government produces no products, unless you consider the paper and ink used to document the numerous and changing laws, you may argue that they provide ‘services’. However, the participation in these services is not voluntary in most cases, and in 100% of the cases the participation in payment is not voluntary, and is punishable by law. The private sector does not have that luxury of forced participation, and must earn the money they receive in exchange for their goods and services.

Response: Agreed, many government services we are forced to pay for. Some we chose as a society not to be user pay (education and health care). You’d rather user pay?. Some are not suitable for user pay such as much of the courts, police and army.

“Regarding what extent the taxes are fair, how about we start with the same taxation rate for everyone, regardless of income. How is it not fair that I pay 50% tax and others pay 20% or less tax (and I’m talking about individuals as well as corps)? If you really want fair, lets go with a flat tax across the board for individuals and corporations, and eliminate the deductions for all of them. Then you will have a truly fair tax system, which would also have the benefit of putting individuals, small business and large businesses on the same footing for competition as opposed to letting large corporations have the cake. Then we will have a ‘fair’ tax, and should that fair flat tax rise to an unacceptable level, then everyone will equally suffer and acknowledge this fact instead of 1% of the population with their voices drowned-out by the populist chants of “fair share!”.

Response: I agree with much of that. Investors get a sweet deal on taxes compared to workers.

“The worst part of forced payment (taxation) for forced services by the government is that there is no competition for them. And without competition, you will not get the best, most efficient services, rather you are guaranteed to get the worst services for the most amount of money.”

Response: There is certainly truth to that. I am all for incentives to use tax dollars wisely.

“So without burning more time, I believe the answer to your question is a resounding NO! Nobody deserves anyone else’s money or property, and that includes the government…”

Response: Try a mind game of imagining how a country would look with no government. Someone has to pay for needed government services.

Thank you for taking the time to respond with good questions and good thoughts.

#147 IHCTD9 on 07.18.17 at 11:17 am

#50 George on 07.17.17 at 8:14 pm
It doesn’t matter even if the price is going 50% off the price still too high, you need 80% adjustments to have
A normal place to buy a home !! And I don’t see the market will come back to be normal !
_______________________________________

Normal is probably 600-700K for a modest SFD in Toronto. If this is too much you might well start planning your escape, I can’t see Toronto houses going for less than 600K unless there’s an earthquake or similar.

It may go a bit lower than that, but plan on a decade + with most years containing higher rates before you start seeing it happen.

#148 Asterix1 on 07.18.17 at 11:21 am

#138 Lee on 07.18.17 at 10:05 am
According to a new study by the Fraser Institute household debt level warnings are overblown. Suck it up debt fear mongerers.
___________________________________________

Lets see what their next report will say once the housing bubble has popped and stock market drops. Most of these gains will be gone. Nothing left but debt and higher interest rates. Enjoy..

Our personal debt is atrocious, compare it to any other country, its completely out of whack with reality.

Fraser Insitute can try and sugar coat this issue, it wont work, it still tastes like acid.

#149 Johnny Boy on 07.18.17 at 11:21 am

Trump is such a lying putz. This guy doesn’t have a clue how to run the USA other than into the ground in a pile of flames.

https://qz.com/1031027/the-us-increased-the-number-of-h2b-visas-by-15000/

#150 n1tro on 07.18.17 at 11:24 am

Oh no! HAM is taking over the US.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreigners-buying-us-residential-real-estate-record-clip-140825003.html

#151 -=jwk=- on 07.18.17 at 11:43 am

@#113
Since the government produces no products,

Right, other than hospitals, fire stations, libraries, border stations, schools, roads, communication systems…they don’t produce anything! Libertarians make cons look like geniuses.

#152 conan on 07.18.17 at 11:58 am

Looks like Corporate structures are under review. No more getting your cat a SIN number, and then paying them, in order to generate deductions.

Sorry Fluffy.

#153 TheSpangler on 07.18.17 at 12:04 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/morneau-tax-changes-wealthy-consultations-tuesday-1.4210201

Was hoping for a change on the PRE, but nope tax productive citizens more.

#154 Ole Doberman on 07.18.17 at 12:16 pm

http://www.bnn.ca/feds-unveil-plans-to-target-unfair-tax-advantages-reaped-by-businesses-1.807519

Yep the hunt for taxes continues.

The Belfountain Store could be in trouble…

#155 Dee on 07.18.17 at 12:19 pm

Sales just not happening in north york. Doesnt matter if theres lots of listings or few listings in the neighbourhood. It’s essentially no bid

#156 Dups on 07.18.17 at 12:23 pm

I thought you guys said the economy is booming in Canada?

How do you explain this more than 1000 job layoffs in Ontario?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/siemens-wind-turbine-closing-1.4210184
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gm-unifor-ingersoll-1.3955128
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/400-layoffs-from-closure-of-maple-leaf-foods-plant-1.3852539

This looks like a recession similar to 2008-09 when companies like Magna and friends were on layoff gallore. Can you please explain, where do you guys get the numbers from? Or do you just look at how many people take the elevators at your building?

#157 Sonny on 07.18.17 at 12:28 pm

Morneau proposes tax changes to close loopholes for wealthy

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/morneau-tax-changes-wealthy-consultations-tuesday-1.4210201

#158 Victor V on 07.18.17 at 12:28 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/morneau-tax-changes-wealthy-consultations-tuesday-1.4210201

Finance Canada will also target individuals who claim regular business income as capital gains as opposed to extracting funds from their businesses as a dividend.

Only 50 per cent of capital gain is taxed at a person’s federal tax rate. Dividends face higher taxes. This loophole is being widely circumvented, officials said, and future legislation will aim to crack down on this sort of creative tax planning.

Another proposed measure targets passive investment income held by a private corporation.

Individuals can park money in a business, investing in stocks or other financial products, and then withdraw profits later while only paying the lower corporate tax rate. That disadvantages an individual investor who does not hold funds in a business.

Lower tax rates are meant to encourage businesses to invest and create jobs, not pay lower rates on a retirement portfolio, for example.

Finance Canada has not yet determined how it will close this loophole but expects to collect substantially more revenue in the future.

#159 A Reply to #86 NoName on 07.18.17 at 12:31 pm

“It would be nice of him to revile at least his master and phd thesis that would give us some insight.”

Did you mean to write the word “reveal” (rather than the word “revile”)?

#160 SimplyPut7 on 07.18.17 at 12:33 pm

#147 IHCTD9 on 07.18.17 at 11:17 am

Most people in Toronto don’t have an extra $6,000 or more a year to spend on mortgage payments due to increasing mortgage rates.

And this does not even include rising rates for HELOCs filled with upgrades to kitchens/bathrooms/basements, luxury cars, expensive vacations, homes bought for speculation or loans to family to buy homes of their own. Or condo maintenance fees, many costing more than $500 a month.

It’s going to be fun watching to see who really had money and who was trying to keep up with the Joneses in Toronto.

#161 Victor V on 07.18.17 at 12:35 pm

Ottawa to rein in income “sprinkling” by wealthy Canadians

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-to-cut-back-on-income-sprinkling-by-doctors-and-other-professionals/article35717410/

#162 Victor V on 07.18.17 at 12:40 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/siemens-to-close-ontario-wind-turbine-blade-plant-340-jobs-to-be-lost/article35716643/?click=sf_globefb

A wind-turbine-blade factory in southwestern Ontario that Siemens Canada Ltd. recently called “a key part of our global supply chain” will shut down early next year, leaving 340 employees in Tillsonburg, Ont. without work by early next year.

More than 200 employees would lose their jobs immediately, the company said.

Employees were called to an all-staff meeting Tuesday morning where company officials revealed the closure.

#163 debt on 07.18.17 at 12:43 pm

#138 Lee
According to a new study by the Fraser Institute household debt level warnings are overblown. Suck it up debt fear mongerers.

Indeed! I was surprised to read this:

Canadian household debt is at a record high $2 trillion, up from $357 billion in 1990,

Super scary, no?
But then:

…household assets have increased from $2.2 trillion to $12.3 trillion over the same period

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/07/18/canadian-household-debt-warnings-overblown-report

More debt, and more assets… it’s all good in a low-interest environment.

#164 Stan Broock on 07.18.17 at 12:56 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/morneau-tax-changes-wealthy-consultations-tuesday-1.4210201

Morneau wants to curtail so-called “income sprinkling,” a tax move that allows business owners — often professionals like doctors and lawyers — to distribute money to family members who earn less, allowing income to be taxed at a lower rate.

Morneau plans to impose a “reasonableness” test so this does not punish legitimate family businesses. That test will determine just how much work a family member actually does at a business, and if they can really lay claim to profits. An estimated 50,000 Canadian families will be affected by this change, Finance Canada estimates.

———————-
So you claim your wife worked 2000 hours a year in the family Business at $ 30/hour. CRA says that work (in their imaginary world) can be done for 1000 hours a year at $ 15 /h

You screwed.

Lunacy introduced by an idiot. The village idiot.

#165 april on 07.18.17 at 1:08 pm

#128 – Trump can’t get anything done because he is being stopped on every side. They want him out at all costs.

His party controls both houses of Congress. Maybe he just can’t get along with people. Not the best attribute for a political leader. — Garth

#166 nick on 07.18.17 at 1:18 pm

#163 debt on 07.18.17 at 12:43 pm

“More debt, and more assets… it’s all good in a low-interest environment.”

Low interest rate environment inflates asset prices.

#167 A Reply to #146 InvestorsFriend on 07.18.17 at 1:28 pm

“Money is just an intangible thing without inherent value that serves to facilitate commerce and record who gets what and to measure wealth.”

Money is a liquid, tangible asset.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset

Money is not just a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a standard of deferred payment; it’s also a store of value.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money

“Money is one of the best stores of value because of its liquidity; that is, it can easily be exchanged for other goods and services. An individual’s wealth is the total of all stores of value including both monetary and nonmonetary assets.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Store_of_value

#168 Waiverless on 07.18.17 at 1:31 pm

#112 TRT

Spoke to a mortgage broker in Abbotsford – said lots of craziness out there.
He did a mortgage for 3 couples buying a house together. I asked why – his response “I don’t ask those questions”

Asked him who’s buying what out there. Everything under the sun. Truckers, taxi drivers convinced by realtors to flip or be amateur builders. Working fulltime jobs and building on the side – never done it before and running into trouble – back to the mortgage broker for more $$$

Know a realtor who bought a place with 4 partners in abby 3 weeks ago.. were going to reno and flip in Sept. Listed it the very next week before starting reno’s – looking for a greater fool.

Realtors and brokers taking advantage of new immigrants trying to catch up financially to established immigrants who have been here for 40+ years in the east indian community is what I see – our version of keeping up with the Joneses – or Singhs in this case… that’s an East Indian perspective…

#169 Another Toothless Market Killer on 07.18.17 at 1:35 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-mortgage-housing-1.4137986

I guess we now know why last years CMHC stress test had little impact on the market. In Jan to Mar CMHC mortgages down 41% yet real estate was booming. CMHC mortgages should have been up.

Looks like last years CMHC stress test changes shifted the unqualified buyers to conventional mortgages. They get a private lender to lend the down payment to qualify for a conventional mortgage with no stress test required. With the coming OSFI changes to require conventional mortgages to be stress tested it shuts that 41% down, along with stress testing the existing conventional mortgages. The new OSFI changes will be massive.

———-

Lol – remember when the 5 year qualifying stress test was going to crush the market and eliminate 15-20% of buyers? Remember, when it was supposed to be the equivalent of a 200 basis point interest rate hike?

Ya, that was effective. Prices skyrocketed after the supposed market changer was implemented. Another toothless measure.

The forthcoming OFSI changes are also being heralded as a market killer. Ya, good luck with that. Buyers will always find a way around – alternative mortgages, family loans, shadow banking……

These measures are as effective as placing a boulder in the middle of a raging river to stop the flow of the water….the water just goes around it.

#170 Tazi Bnu on 07.18.17 at 1:38 pm

I guess Bill wants to pay doctors more and increase the size of the CRA to squabble with the lawyers. The 500 mill that this is estimated to bring in is bogus after you account for the extra costs.

#171 Smoking Man on 07.18.17 at 1:55 pm

50k risk takers are going to get pummled, small biz owners, no pension, no UI when things go bad, no security other than wit and work ethic.

Looking forward to getting my disability pension.
Watch my wife sell Ice Cream in the topics.

No point in ever coding again. Not a big deal for the big banks who are loading up on TFW like crazy now that T2 gave them the green light.

Canada, you’re screwed. Fellow boomers its your fault for allowing your kids to be brain washed by communist teachers. I did my part.

I’ll send you all post cards.

#172 Smoking Man on 07.18.17 at 2:02 pm

#165 april on 07.18.17 at 1:08 pm
#128 – Trump can’t get anything done because he is being stopped on every side. They want him out at all costs.

His party controls both houses of Congress. Maybe he just can’t get along with people. Not the best attribute for a political leader. — Garth
….

Nope the republicans not playing ball are globalists with an agenda for a one world govt. They will be gone come mid term elections.

Atleased the USA common folk have a chance at prosperity with trump at the control’s, Canada not so lucky. Liberalism is mental disorder and you will how there policy works out.

Back to work
Packing up my hawian tropic deep tanning lotion.

#173 IHCTD9 on 07.18.17 at 2:29 pm

“Finance Canada has not yet determined how it will close this loophole but expects to collect substantially more revenue in the future.”

______________

Bob was not sure how to plug the nail hole in his tire, but he was expecting the tire to re-inflate shortly.

#174 Deplorable Dude on 07.18.17 at 2:34 pm

‘His party controls both houses of Congress. Maybe he just can’t get along with people. Not the best attribute for a political leader. — Garth’

The ‘Republican’s’ don’t want Trump anymore than the Dems.

You’re seeing the ‘Uni-Party’ on full open display now.

There are no Democrats or republicans. Just the Uni-party…who are not beholden to the electorate.

They are ALL beholden to the Globalist corporate lobbyist interests who pay their campaign funds (and who write the leglisation btw).

Idiot comment, but I respect your right to be deplorable. — Garth

#175 reality 1 on 07.18.17 at 2:39 pm

in reply to comment # 140 “Hockey is my life”

Hockey must really be your life – concussions and all !

You don’t get it – the debt being piled up by these know nothing socialists will preclude the next government from having the financial resources required to fix it this time.

Stick to hockey – you only have to think 3 seconds ahead in that game, unlike real life.

#176 Bob on 07.18.17 at 2:45 pm

“the central bank abruptly raises interest rates”

Hahaha you are funny, they have only been talking about it for 8 years. And we got a tiny tiny increase…

We are still at Emergency rate by the way, oh yes the last couple years really needed emergency rate!!!! All these multiple offers, bidding wars, triple digit over asking final price… All signs of a depressed economy requiring emergency rate!!

Do not be deceived by the quarter-point increase. It is the first of many. And, yes, monetary policy did shift abruptly. — Garth

#177 AGuyInVancouver on 07.18.17 at 2:48 pm

#163 debt on 07.18.17 at 12:43 pm
#138 Lee
According to a new study by the Fraser Institute household debt level warnings are overblown. Suck it up debt fear mongerers.

Indeed! I was surprised to read this:

Canadian household debt is at a record high $2 trillion, up from $357 billion in 1990,

Super scary, no?
But then:

…household assets have increased from $2.2 trillion to $12.3 trillion over the same period

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/07/18/canadian-household-debt-warnings-overblown-report

More debt, and more assets… it’s all good in a low-interest environment.
__________________________

Ever stop to think that’s because people’s chief asset, their homes, have experienced bubble-like price inflation? It’s not like they’ve suddenly all run out and purchased blue chip stock!

It certainly calls into question how the BoC measures inflation vis a vis housing costs.

#178 Fake News Again on 07.18.17 at 2:51 pm

#84 MF on 07.17.17 at 9:54 pm
#41 Smoking Man on 07.17.17 at 7:42 pm

100%.

Lots of premature celebrations here, just like Vancouver’s short lived “correction”.

I see very little change in the perception of real estate here in the gta among my prime family forming older millennial generation. Everyone still hates renting, and wants to buy a place to start a life.

BTW Trump is doing great down south, in spite of all the moaning and complaining.

MF
_________________________________

The only moaning and complaining is coming from the MSM whose ratings are dropping like a stone.

#179 jess on 07.18.17 at 2:56 pm

the think tank are getting ready to lobby against :

” Morneau told reporters, adding Canadians expect the government to curtail people using “fancy accounting schemes” to lower their tax burden.

“We want a tax system that is fair,” he said.”
===============
enablers revealed
lux leaks panama papers have shone the sunlight on the tax havens

“Back at home, an online petition calling on Finance Minister Bill Morneau to “close tax loopholes and stop tax dodging” has gathered more than 17,000 signatures. The government has committed to doing as much in its 2016 budget, and is giving CRA $444.4 million over five years to hire more auditors and invest in software to track tax evaders.

” C4TF says that Canadian companies have sheltered $199 billion offshore, which has resulted in an annual loss of nearly $8 billion in tax revenue.

The KPMG case is “the tip of the iceberg,” says Howlett

http://www.advisor.ca/news/industry-news/kpmg-should-be-charged-with-facilitating-tax-evasion-watchdog-203872

#180 InvestorsFriend on 07.18.17 at 3:05 pm

To the Man Who can’t Pick A Screen Name

#167 A Reply to #146 InvestorsFriend on 07.18.17 at 1:28 pm quoted me and provided some links

“Money is just an intangible thing without inherent value that serves to facilitate commerce and record who gets what and to measure wealth.”

Money is a liquid, tangible asset.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset

*********************************
Yes, to an individual money is a tangible asset and a store of value.

To a country as a whole, money is an intangible claim on real wealth that facilitates commerce and keeps score.

Wealth such as houses, farms, factories and all manner on inventories exists independently of the unit of money in which it is measured.

Absent the real stuff and also services, money has no value. Absent money, the real stuff and also services still has great value.

#181 Deplorable Dude on 07.18.17 at 3:25 pm

Idiot comment, but I respect your right to be deplorable. — Garth

—-

Hmmm ok, well argued rebutal?

It’s simple….follow the money….

Last year….2016….US Corporate Lobbyists spent just over 3 BILLION lobbying Congress….

…..Nearly $600000 per lawmaker.

Guess which industry throws the most the money……Pharma/Healthcare.

But this apparently has no impact on how these lawmakers vote….hmmmmm?

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/07/18/reminder-to-remove-obamacare-we-must-first-remove-the-uniparty-big-club/

#182 Johnny Boy on 07.18.17 at 4:06 pm

#172 Smoking Man on 07.18.17 at 2:02 pm

#165 april on 07.18.17 at 1:08 pm
#128 – Trump can’t get anything done because he is being stopped on every side. They want him out at all costs.

His party controls both houses of Congress. Maybe he just can’t get along with people. Not the best attribute for a political leader. — Garth
….

Nope the republicans not playing ball are globalists with an agenda for a one world govt. They will be gone come mid term elections.

Atleased the USA common folk have a chance at prosperity with trump at the control’s, Canada not so lucky. Liberalism is mental disorder and you will how there policy works out.

Back to work
Packing up my hawian tropic deep tanning lotion.
_______________________________________
I thought you were out signing a lease on an apartment?
What? another lie? Don’t get a sunburn when you are sitting in the fold out chair in a backyard in Sarnia.

#183 Entrepreneur on 07.18.17 at 4:10 pm

And #146 Investors Friend on “worst part of forced payment (taxation) for forced services by the government is that there is no competition…the worst services” So true, and how would Jimmy Patterson handle that scenario “Your fired.” And that is one of the differences between private and public attitude.

“Your fired” saying is also a Trump saying but that is how a business stays successful by firing the ones who are not pulling their weight. And #172 Smoking Man is correct in saying Liberalism is not working here.

Also, just thinking out loud, wonder if a graph has been made of the jet patterns and the climate change disasters to see if there is a correlation of some kind.

I look at this way: Blower dryer makes the hair dryer; Winds make the grass, trees dryer (BC forest fires); Wonder if the jets make the earth dryer (one of many reasons)? Could their massive size be like a big blow dryer?

#184 Boombust on 07.18.17 at 4:12 pm

“The Fraser Institute”?

Isn’t that a CIA front operating “in plain sight”?

#185 Entrepreneur on 07.18.17 at 4:26 pm

Played baseball when younger and at the beginning of the game the two leaders picked the players they wanted. Of course liked it when on the best players side so we could win but the odd time played with the worse players. But (this is the key) still played my hardest and would win.

A nation is meant for the people.

#186 NoName on 07.18.17 at 4:38 pm

interesting read about shelf life of medications.

https://www.propublica.org/article/the-myth-of-drug-expiration-dates

#187 A Reply to #180 InvestorsFriend on 07.18.17 at 4:41 pm

“To a country as a whole, money is an intangible claim on real wealth that facilitates commerce and keeps score.

“Wealth such as houses, farms, factories and all manner on inventories exists independently of the unit of money in which it is measured.

“Absent the real stuff and also services, money has no value. Absent money, the real stuff and also services still has great value.”

I presume that you’re referring to inclusive wealth (as defined by the United Nations).
http://inclusivewealthindex.org/#the-world-wants-to-know-how-its-doing

Your definition seems to include physical and natural capital, but do you also include human capital?
http://www.economist.com/node/21557732

Should human happiness also be included in your measure of wealth?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_National_Happiness
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/3557112/Happiness-is-the-measure-of-true-wealth.html

What about ecological assets? Do you include them in your definition of wealth?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth

#188 Leo Trollstoy on 07.18.17 at 4:49 pm

Healthcare is a profitable biz in NATURE

Compatible to banking

#189 Freedom First on 07.18.17 at 5:05 pm

And here I thought that Bill was going to restore the TFSA limit back to 10,000 per year. Now that would be fair to all Canadians.

#190 choptstix on 07.19.17 at 2:33 pm

Business in Vancouver:
”The new ‘strange reality’ for Fraser Valley real estate
Industry experts struggling to make sense of frenetic Lower Mainland market”
https://www.biv.com/article/2017/7/new-strange-reality-fraser-valley-real-estate/
–units starting at $711,000!

#191 choptstix on 07.19.17 at 2:38 pm

Wonder if Toronto’s condo market is as whacked as Vancouver’s (esp east vancouver’s)?
”Nearly 60% of Vancouver Condos Sold Over Asking Price in June”
http://vancitycondoguide.com/nearly-60-of-vancouver-condos-sold-over-asking-price-in-june/