The second half

RYAN  By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

Last week we had two important events. First, our great country celebrated its 150th anniversary, or as I learned over a couple of cold ones, our “sesquicentennial”. Second, we closed the books on the first half of 2017, which, based on the solid global equity returns, provided another reason to celebrate. Or at least this is what I told myself when I awoke with a headache on July 2nd.

The emerging markets were the standout winner in H1/17, up an impressive 17.2%. The developed markets performed well with the S&P 500, Nikkei, and Euro Stoxx 50 up 8.2%, 4.8%, and 4.6%, respectively. Surprisingly, our S&P/TSX was one of the few markets in the red with the TSX down 0.7%, as falling oil prices, housing concerns and the Home Capital debacle weighed on our market. But we see better days for the TSX, so don’t give up on it just yet. This week we provide our second half outlook for the global equity markets. While we see the potential for increased volatility in the months ahead, we do see this bull market continuing in the second half.

H1/17 Equity Market Price Returns

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Central to our bullish view of equity markets is that we see corporate profits continuing to rebound following a rough patch in 2015/16. The S&P 500 has experienced three consecutive quarters of Y/Y earnings increases, with the most recent quarter (Q1) up an impressive 18% Y/Y. Given our expectations for stronger economic growth in the second half, we see this trend continuing. Currently, analysts are forecasting S&P 500 earnings to grow roughly 20% Y/Y in H2/17. While we see this as overly ambitious (sell-side analysts are notoriously bullish in their earnings estimates) we still see the potential for solid earnings growth in the coming quarters, helping to drive global equity markets to new all-time highs.

Looking at the TSX, it has delivered even stronger earnings growth over the last three quarters. Based on Bloomberg data, the TSX has delivered three consecutive quarters of double digit earnings growth, averaging an impressive 23%. For the second half analysts expect earnings to grow at an average 27% Y/Y. Again this may be a tad optimistic, especially if oil prices do not recover, but we still see a strong earnings recovery for the TSX in 2017.

One major concern from investors is that US and global equity market valuations are lofty. We share this concern, however, if we’re correct on our earnings call, we see this potentially compressing P/Es, thus alleviating the valuation concerns.

S&P 500 Earnings Set To Rise

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

As mentioned, the TSX underperformed in H1/17 given a number of headwinds. But we believe this is providing a buying opportunity as we expect a stronger second half. As a result of this underperformance the TSX is more attractively valued versus other global markets. For example, currently the TSX is trading at a forward P/E of 16.7x which is 2x P/Es below the S&P 500 at 18.7x. As illustrated below, this historically is a pretty wide gap with only three instances since 2000 being at this level (August 2001, January 2005 and August 2008). In these three instances the TSX outperformed the S&P 500 in the subsequent 12 months by 14%, 21%, and 4.5%, respectively.

With the TSX trading at a discount and our expectations for stronger earnings growth, we believe conditions are ripe for the TSX to perform much better over the next 12-18 months. This is why we’ve been increasing Canadian equity exposure in client accounts.

TSX is Trading at a Discount to the S&P 500

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Finally, we’ve become more constructive on European and emerging market equities. First, with these regions significantly underperforming the S&P 500 in recent years, they trade at a good discount to the US equity markets. Currently, European and EM equities trade at a forward P/E of 15.5x and 15x, respectively, versus the S&P 500 at 18.7x. Second, these areas are projected to deliver higher earnings growth than the US. Third, after years of underperforming these two markets have finally broken out versus the S&P 500 which was the final “trigger” for us to increase exposure to these areas.

Putting it all together we see global equities continuing their bull run as corporate profits continue to rebound. However, we see the TSX, Europe and EM equities doing better in the months ahead which is why we’re tilting portfolios to these areas. Have you checked your geographic weights lately? If not maybe you should see where your US equity weight stands and consider trimming some back and reallocating those funds into the TSX, Europe and EM. As the old expression goes, “you can never go broke taking a profit.”

Ryan Lewenza, CFA,CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

98 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.17 at 3:46 pm

Rising interest rates.
Falling housing sales.
A softening TSX.
Deficit budgets….
What could possibly go wrong…..
Over to you Apocalypse

#2 SoggyShorts on 07.08.17 at 3:47 pm

Totally off topic, but how does living off your portfolio work as an expat?
We’re thinking of retiring overseas (vietnam?), and I’m wondering who I have to pay tax to when I take money from an RRSP, or sell something else in my portfolio.
Does “non-resident” status make a difference there?
Thanks

#3 Andrew Woburn on 07.08.17 at 4:12 pm

SoggyShorts on 07.08.17 at 3:47 pm

We’re thinking of retiring overseas (vietnam?), and I’m wondering who I have to pay tax to when I take money from an RRSP, or sell something else in my portfolio.
Does “non-resident” status make a difference there?
Thanks
======================

Becoming a non resident has many potential Canadian tax consequences such as the “deemed” sale of assets. It is a minefield but manageable with careful investigation and probably some professional help. You could start here:

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/nnrsdnts/ndvdls/lvng-eng.html

#4 crossbordershopper on 07.08.17 at 4:15 pm

the canadian market is a basket case, always has been ,filled with hundreds of looser juniors who will all go to zero . litterly hundreds of them if not 2 thousand on the venture, micro cap, resource wanna bee’s.
the canadian market is simply the big resource stocks and the banks and insurance and the odd and ends grocery store or industrial like snc lavalin, or loblaws. or dollarama.
investming in the canadian marketplace is a waste, simply go to the usa market
.

#5 Buh. on 07.08.17 at 4:20 pm

No comment

#6 Hana on 07.08.17 at 4:33 pm

Thanks Ryan. This is so great to have you to share with us all this valuable information. Percentage wise what would you suggest for equality part of portfolio?

#7 Buh. on 07.08.17 at 4:36 pm

Ok, one comment. The TSX is Crap. Hasn’t returned me anything since I started investing in 2015…

#8 Guy in Calgary on 07.08.17 at 4:45 pm

Please tell me exact weightings, which types od accounts they should be in, the actual ETF symbols and then please post a quarterly report on the blog. This way I do not have to actually hire anyone to do this for me. I’m sure you understand.

#9 Hana on 07.08.17 at 4:57 pm

I meant equity part of portfolio.

#10 Lala on 07.08.17 at 5:04 pm

Based on your chart, the last time US equity was expensive compared to TSX was right before the 2008 recession. So why does the writer to recommend buying stocks right now?

#11 JSS on 07.08.17 at 5:05 pm

Hi Ryan, where do you see the tsx at by end of year 2017? 15,500?
Also, what is your guestimate for tsx at end 2018?

#12 Kelowna on 07.08.17 at 5:08 pm

Thanks Ryan for these great insights. I agree with your renewed focus on Europe especially through ETF’s such as XEF. Appreciate your perspectives!!

#13 Ryan Lewenza on 07.08.17 at 5:10 pm

Hana “Thanks Ryan. This is so great to have you to share with us all this valuable information. Percentage wise what would you suggest for equality part of portfolio?”

Currently we’re 21% Canada, 16% US, and 23% International (which is Europe, Japan and EM). The rest is in various bonds. – Ryan L

#14 Waiverless on 07.08.17 at 5:15 pm

Hi Ryan,

Thanks for the reassuring post today. Been watching my balanced portfolio with a strong stomach. If not for this blog I wouldn’t even have one though so double thanks to you guys and Garth. Obligatory sucking up out of the way..

What’s your opinion on addition only rebalancing. Currently I rebalance my 100k ish portfolio with top ups only. Versus selling to rebalance. I’d rather not incur the fees to sell the etfs so just keep topping up as things go down. Good strategy or should I think about selling performers to rebalance laggards.

#15 Canada ? on 07.08.17 at 5:30 pm

21%? USA underweight? Clearly ya pulled the trigger too soon. GL the rest of the way

tactically balanced, eh Ryan? :)

#16 Dwilly on 07.08.17 at 5:33 pm

Serious question. Do you guys have any data to support that your tweaking of portfolio allocations adds any alpha, versus just setting a fixed allocation and sticking to it? Or reduces volatility/improves Sharpe?

I get the sense your tweaks are pretty minor. Maybe going from 17% maple equity to 20%. It’s unlikely this could hurt much (but then nor is it likely that it’ll help much).

You got any supporting data to back up that this adds any value?

#17 Glengarry Girl on 07.08.17 at 5:50 pm

#2 SoggyShorts

I left Canada in 2008 when things were clearly tanking in my neck of the woods. I sold my house after it was empty for 6 months at a 25% reduction to the peak in 2007. A lot of people at that time, including the real estate agents were at the denial stage of that correction. I owned the house, enjoyed it, repaired and improved it for 12 years. It was considered in the higher end of the market in Lakeshore Ontario. It was the last house to sell in my neighborhood for 2 years after I left. Good thing I keep good records because after the sale I got a letter from the lawyer informing me that there would be taxation to the Capital Gains since I left the Country. The lawyer would send me a check for the amount that I paid for the house 12 years earlier, but the Gains would be withheld until the taxation was determined. I sent them a twelve page fax of every receipt proving that the Gain was spent on the house. They released the total proceeds of the sale shortly after. The bank in the US put a 30 day hold on those funds by the way. When you move Countries there are some considerations. Even though we had a considerable savings, with no Debt, we could not get credit easily. Buying a car was difficult, getting a cell phone plan required a $500 Deposit for one year. I had to redo my Driver’s Test and FAILED. Once you become a non-resident officially, you no longer get Free Canadian Health Care. I am not sure what happens to your CPP when the time comes, I am planning to come back and start contributing again. I have also cashed out most of our RRSPs before the crash of 2008. The tax was witheld at a fixed rate of 20%, but when I file a return, it was adjusted based on income. I moved the CAD to USD at Par. Once you have no investment income and are a non resident, you do not have to file a Tax Return.

#18 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 07.08.17 at 5:51 pm

Same thoughts as my trading desk… although…

We are waiting for the TSX to get above the 200DMA before we get bullish. Till then, we have revised our market status from cautiously bullish to neutral.

#19 Shawn on 07.08.17 at 5:51 pm

Interesting analysis but I have to respectfully disagree. History has shown that valuation is a bad tactical allocation timing tool. The recent consensus view among fund managers has been to overweight Europe and international markets. The S&P500 is actually the contrarian trade at this point. Nasdaq leadership has been telling. I think the trade is to overweight the US and DXY. I would be a buyer of strength (US) and seller of weakness (TSX).

#20 SoggyShorts on 07.08.17 at 5:57 pm

#3 Andrew Woburn on 07.08.17 at 4:12 pm

Thanks, it is really hard to find specific info on expat taxes.
I tried out the CRA non-resident calculator
http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/ebci/nrtc/welcome.do
and just for fun used taking 50,000 out of my TFSA as an example, and it came back with 12.5K tax owing…. um how about no? I’m pretty sure that I’ll drain my TFSA to zero before leaving if that’s the case.

BTW vietnam capital gains tax rate is 0.1%
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Vietnam/capital-gains-tax

Now that’s something I can get behind

#21 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 07.08.17 at 5:57 pm

Adding. Our asset mix is:

Equities:

Canadian: 17.92%
USA: 16.15%
Global (ex-CAD/USA): 25.92%

#22 Gwen on 07.08.17 at 5:58 pm

Currently we’re 21% Canada, 16% US, and 23% International (which is Europe, Japan and EM). The rest is in various bonds. – Ryan L
====================

I though said garth said underweight maple and overweight ice cream?

#23 TCContrarian on 07.08.17 at 6:05 pm

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In this poignant half-hour interview, Peter Michael Ketcham tells his story of discovering that the organization where he had worked for 14 years had deliberately suppressed the truth about the most pivotal event of the 21st century.

Through his willingness to look openly at what he failed to see in front of him for 15 years, Mr. Ketcham inspires us to believe that we can all muster the courage to confront the truth — and, in so doing, finally heal the wounds of 9/11.

https://youtu.be/RJ_jQgIEnI8

***********************************************
Every so often, key individuals come forth to speak out on the biggest crime of the century (so far).
But…I fear for his life!

TCC

#24 south burnaby gardener on 07.08.17 at 6:19 pm

Good afternoon Ryan,
I am looking for US$ ETF equivalents of VEE, XEF and VIU for my RSP. I would prefer to rebalance without changing the US$ back into CAN$. Can you suggest anything?
Thank you

#25 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.08.17 at 6:23 pm

Ryan,
You had a hangover after a couple of cold ones.
That’s a poor return on your investment.
Time to sign up for Smokies free “Boozing for Dummies” classes.
If you wanna deal with the high wheelers and dealers, you gotta be able to hold your liquor.
All the free advice available on this blog.
Priceless

#26 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.08.17 at 6:26 pm

9/11 was an inside job 100%.
People say “oh no, a conspiracy that big would come out eventually”; well guess what, it’s already come out hundreds of times but the official response is to ignore it.

#27 nick on 07.08.17 at 6:29 pm

I dunno. I dont like the mix of the TSX. There is a reason it is trading at a “discount”… the companies (other than a handful) suck and the future looks bleak. Too energy focused for me.

#28 Built to Spec on 07.08.17 at 6:32 pm

Re: #3 and #20 – TFSA taxes for non-residents

I see the CRA non-resident calculator (#20 above) shows a 25% tax on TFSA withdrawals – that’s a shocker all right.

But not sure if it’s correct – the CRA info link in #3 above says:
“If you hold a TFSA when you leave Canada, you can keep it and continue to benefit from the exemption from Canadian tax on investment income and withdrawals”.

This suggests NO tax would be payable on TFSA withdrawals.

Would appreciate if any tax gurus can clarify this.

#29 Smoking Man on 07.08.17 at 6:32 pm

#6 Hana on 07.08.17 at 4:33 pm
Thanks Ryan. This is so great to have you to share with us all this valuable information. Percentage wise what would you suggest for equality part of portfolio?
……..
Hana, this isn’t linked In damn it.

#30 Nm on 07.08.17 at 6:41 pm

I hope your right, rebalancing in favour of Canada has not looked good the last 3 months. What effect will a rising prime rate have on the TSX

#31 JSS on 07.08.17 at 6:44 pm

“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful” – author: some investor guy

Invest now in the tsx!

#32 Ryan Lewenza on 07.08.17 at 6:57 pm

Lala “Based on your chart, the last time US equity was expensive compared to TSX was right before the 2008 recession. So why does the writer to recommend buying stocks right now?”

In the first part of the post I was arguing the case for overall equities to rise on stronger corporate profits. Then I made the case for the TSX to outperform the S&P 500 in part because valuations are cheaper. Obviously if I saw a 2008/09 bear market coming (which I don’t) then I would not be making the case for this current bull market to continue. – Ryan L

#33 Ryan Lewenza on 07.08.17 at 7:00 pm

Nick “I dunno. I dont like the mix of the TSX. There is a reason it is trading at a “discount”… the companies (other than a handful) suck and the future looks bleak. Too energy focused for me.”

Agreed that the TSX is concentrated in financial and resources. But I disagree the future looks bleak and I actually think the energy sector could soon be a screaming buy. It’s been beaten down over the last few years and is slowly becoming very attractive to me. – Ryan L

#34 Ryan Lewenza on 07.08.17 at 7:05 pm

South Burnaby Gardener “I am looking for US$ ETF equivalents of VEE, XEF and VIU for my RSP. I would prefer to rebalance without changing the US$ back into CAN$. Can you suggest anything?”

VWO for VEE, EFA for VEF and VEU for VIU. – Ryan L

#35 InvestorsFriend on 07.08.17 at 7:28 pm

Excellent Article today

Ryan Lewenza provided an excellent article today packed with facts and figures. He then went on to say that he concludes from it that the TSX should do well in the near term. Others are free to disagree but Ryan does a great free service here.

TSX figures I find to be hard to get. I have historic S&P 500 earnings (operating and GAAP) but not TSX.

The few TSX earnings figures I do find are often suspect as they are adjusted in some way. If you look at the historic P/E on ETFs like iShares it is not based on the pure GAAP earnings and the adjustments are not easy to understand.

Ryan mentions analysts earnings forecasts are usually optimistic. For that reason I like to just use historical earnings P/E based on historical earnings. That tends to work okay for S&P 500 but is a problem on the highly cyclic TSX.

#36 A Reply to #17 Glengarry Girl on 07.08.17 at 7:30 pm

“Once you have no investment income and are a non-resident, you do not have to file a tax return.”

No, that’s not right. See the links below:

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/ndvdls/tpcs/ncm-tx/flng-blgtns/menu-eng.html

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/nnrsdnts/ndvdls/lvng-eng.html#mgrnt

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/nnrsdnts/cmmn/rsdncy-eng.html

#37 MicroGX on 07.08.17 at 7:37 pm

Thanks for the in-sights Ryan, helpful!!

#38 Invest on 07.08.17 at 7:49 pm

BlackBerry is a world class failure and it put Kitchener-Waterloo on the map as a huge fail town. The sheer number of student housing going up there is hilarious it looks like North York. I feel sorry for the people who were stupid enough to invest in those. It makes Toronto development look slow pace.
Each time we visit our son there I can’t help but laugh hysterically at the overbuilding in the university area.
It’s a city of failure (BB) and small mom and pop tech clubs (they make no money so I wouldn’t call them companies).

#39 NoName on 07.08.17 at 7:51 pm

#25 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.08.17 at 6:23 pm

Ryan,
You had a hangover after a couple of cold ones.
That’s a poor return on your investment.
Time to sign up for Smokies free “Boozing for Dummies” classes.

—-

oh the ponzius… you got that wrong hole piont of drinking is Enormous impact from minimal input, that why i buy 7-10% beer, its actualy cheaper. two cans of 7% are better that 3 cans of 4% for same unit price.
we live in nonlinear world

google liner vs nonliner thinking

so again who drinks what?

#40 Smoking Man on 07.08.17 at 8:12 pm

Wow finally an effort to save the student minds down south. Let’s hope it makes its way to Canada.
I think its to late

Red pill workshops
https://youtu.be/TrjpE4eEwCo

#41 Catalyst on 07.08.17 at 8:32 pm

Thanks for the post. With the slowdown in housing and stricter mortgage origination guidelines, do you see this as being a headwind for earnings at the big 6?

#42 Jungle on 07.08.17 at 8:40 pm

Amazing post
If you ever want to come over and drink beer we can talk shop about stocks, RE and the economy!!!!!

#43 Tony on 07.08.17 at 8:42 pm

If Trump tries to normalize interest rates much the same way Paul Volcker did when the economy could not withstand it then I’ll sell short a basket full of Zombie companies in America.

#44 espressobob on 07.08.17 at 8:43 pm

It’s pretty tough to beat a retail global index investor. The TSX composite performance is proof. Besides, Canada is a small player on the global stage.

Oil? Who knows? It’s a roll of the dice, and should crude and the producers see upside then that will be reflected in all the indices. Timing a commodity, sector, or index is futile. Why not cover all the bases instead?

Thanks Ryan for your thoughts. It’s bourbon & babes night at the local watering hole and trust me, timing is everything.

#45 For those about to flop... on 07.08.17 at 9:06 pm

O.k NoName ,I’m sure InfLewenza won’t mind me soiling his thread.

They say variety is the spice of life and so I will show you some of the options that I partake in.

I will just stick to the beer side of things.

If it is stinking hot a lot of times I will go with this one with a wedge of lime which my dentist thinks is a great idealist to make sure I finish off the last bit of enamel…

https://www.ratebeer.com/beer/dos-equis-xx-special-lager/225/

Then if I am slightly hungry and doing the cheese,cold cuts and bickies thing, then I reach for this one..

http://www.thebeerstore.ca/beers/birra-moretti

Or this one ,the Italians have that side of things sorted…

http://www.thebeerstore.ca/beers/peroni-nastro-azzuro

When I am in Europe and I’m not sure which is the best beer in each country i normally order one of these..

http://www.thebeerstore.ca/beers/grolsch-lager-450ml

https://www.ratebeer.com/beer/kronenbourg-1664/4459/

If I am camping in Washington State and get sick of drinking the budget friendly Tecate
I normally go to Safeway and grab a six pack of this one.
I kept my Safeway card and only use it in the states to get the discounts…

https://www.amazon.com/Henry-Weinhards-Private-Reserve-Bottles/dp/B0016LV5CO

I’m not a big fan of Pilsners, but my favourite colour is Navy Blue and so these guys changed their packaging and it was enough to trigger something inside of me to give it a go.

This is what I am drinking right now

I don’t mind it if I drink it from the start but I switched to it the other day and hated it.
Luckily I have 23 more beers to get used to it…

http://www.bcliquorstores.com/product/905000

I don’t always comment on financial blogs,but when I do I make sure it is on Greaterfool…

M43BC

#46 Ian on 07.08.17 at 9:09 pm

Oooo, what’s this I see on Zolo my dogs?! An ever so slight rolling over in GTA listings? No, I don’t think it’s bullish as the gulf between listings and sales you could drive a truck through. Any thoughts though? Summer dip / seasonal factors?

#47 Whither Trump? on 07.08.17 at 9:17 pm

Why did Trump attend the G20 Summit (since the key issues were trade, immigration, and climate change)?

#48 LH on 07.08.17 at 9:26 pm

Terrible advice —>
“You can’t go broke taking a profit”

The best strategy for taxable accounts is pick your stocks (or ETF/tracker funds) carefully, and to hold for a very long time.

Phil Fisher wrote about this well in his book, Common Stocks for Uncommon Profits.

#49 Wrk.dover on 07.08.17 at 9:32 pm

#39 NoName on 07.08.17 at 7:51 pm
so again who drinks what?
———————————

Well. it is the weekend,

Brew your own beer.

Mix liquor with liquor for best cocktails, water it down with vodka if it is too rich. Experiment with what is at hand. 50/50 tequila/rye tastes like bourbon.

Ban gin vermouth, and bitters.

Water chasers before bed time a must.

#50 Victor V on 07.08.17 at 9:45 pm

#43 Tony on 07.08.17 at 8:42 pm

If Trump tries to normalize interest rates much the same way Paul Volcker did when the economy could not withstand it then I’ll sell short a basket full of Zombie companies in America.

==============

The Fed controls the direction of rates, not the President.

#51 Toni on 07.08.17 at 10:09 pm

The stock market is a rigged/manipulated dinosaur of an exchanged- designed to take your money by the powers that be. The new currency we will all move to is crypto-currencies. Start moving your currency into Etherium and smart contract tokens. The stock market will be second fiddle to these exchanges withing 3 years. The big ‘awakening’ will be this fall. Bash- all you want- it’s coming. It will be the biggest reset since the inception of the internet.

#52 A Reply to #28 Built to Spec on 07.08.17 at 10:13 pm

“… the CRA info link in #3 above says: ‘If you hold a TFSA when you leave Canada, you can keep it and continue to benefit from the exemption from Canadian tax on investment income and withdrawals.’

“This suggests NO tax would be payable on TFSA withdrawals.

“Would appreciate if any tax gurus can clarify this.”

I don’t claim to be a tax expert, but here are some useful links:

Individuals – Leaving or entering Canada and non-residents
http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/nnrsdnts/ndvdls/menu-eng.html

Are you an emigrant?
http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/nnrsdnts/ndvdls/lvng-eng.html#mgrnt

Determining your residency status
http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/nnrsdnts/cmmn/rsdncy-eng.html

RC4466 Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA), Guide for Individuals (Non-Residents of Canada, p. 10)
http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/E/pub/tg/rc4466/rc4466-16e.pdf

Income subject to Part XIII tax
http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/nnrsdnts/ndvdls/nnrs-eng.html#txblgtns

#53 Show me the money on 07.08.17 at 10:24 pm

Can you recommend some EM ETF’s

#54 Smoking Man on 07.08.17 at 10:37 pm

When needing to school the CEO of the Royal Bank because his director of Herdonomcs is not too bright, you post this on Linked I’m going to definitely be unfollowed by some old friends, but they weren’t real friends anyway.

Ryan is a linked in buddy. Who will laugh his ass off when he reads it, but will never admit to reading it. That’s how I role bitches.

If you don’t have Linked In, this was the pic, 7 white male executives, and two token white chicks talking about diversity.
……..

Bad optics, I’m not talking about the flag, that’s perfect. I see 141 my job-obligated supporting likes, yet no comments but mine.

They see it, knowing how sensitive and dangerous PC culture is these days, being as sharp as they are, I know some of them, absolute brilliant minds, but they keep their mouth shut because they are smart and like cottaging in Muskoka and Ellicottville.

Myself being forced into retirement at the top of my game, well, I got nothing to lose, my future is a trailer park somewhere because I got a big mouth, and I am forced into fiction writing now. The price you pay when you can’t handle your booze.

Dave, you need to fire your director of Herdonomics, I know your target audience is the postmodernist global tail wagging happy citizen, but man, when they see this pic, all the schooling they have had of late, they will be counting heads.

They will see, 7 old white guys, two compliant white females. Not that there is anything wrong with that, Right?

Dave, I strongly suggest you delete this pic or photoshop some diversity and inclusion.

Stoj
PhD Herdonomics

#55 dacdkep on 07.08.17 at 11:21 pm

@#39NoName

“google liner vs nonliner thinking
so again who drinks what? ”

Forget alcohol. Happy and Sunny? – Sativa . Introspective? – Indica.

Substitute cannabis for alcohol. The world will be a much happier, safer, healthier place. FREE THE WEED!!!!

#56 NoName on 07.08.17 at 11:22 pm

@ Wrk.dover

Brew your own beer.

—-

2 dude at work did that, i managed to get some some dark and reg. beer, honestly i did like it, unfortunatly for me one of those two bailed out to diferent dpt. soon as i stated asking for more, and second announced retirement, maybe i’ll get lukcy and there will be one more batch before retirement.

****

@Flop

beerrrr…

for ages i was drinking only bud and coors lgh, then few yrs back i switched to DAB maibock and Holsten maibock, that lasted for a while untill by accident i discavered St Bernardus Abt 12 and Rochefort 8 and Rochefort 10. Unfortunatly abt 12 and r10 are bit harder to find where i live, but lc bo at yonge and st claire, have them stocked every time i walked in.

I did tryed that italian beer few months back, its ok-ish. Flop you should try polish tyski beer very good, as when we traveled my choice is more or less same dab draft or becks.

what i like when i am across border is price of vino, lot more cheaper even with exchange rate, than what we pay here,

i usualy buy some white vqa from around here, but when i am in us ill get red wine that australian red and yellow tail, and two sirius one ravenswood zinfandel and tedeschi amarone.

i am going to maskoka next week to look for gazibo, tell noone!

—-

i know i know…
serious stuf now
VERY INTERESTING chart of gas prices in ontario vs oil prices.
http://imgur.com/a/j7KPY

#57 A Reply to #48 LH on 07.08.17 at 11:30 pm

“Phil Fisher wrote about this well in his book, Common Stocks for Uncommon Profits.”

Warren Buffett once described himself as 85% Benjamin Graham and 15% Phil Fisher.

#58 Smoking Man on 07.08.17 at 11:51 pm

When the god that you don’t believe in taps you on the shoulder and says. “Go”

Your reply is there a blueprint somewhere ass hole.

He says write dog.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAGnKpE4NCI

#59 NoName on 07.08.17 at 11:56 pm

#55 dacdkep on 07.08.17 at 11:21 pm

Substitute cannabis for alcohol. The world will be a much happier, safer, healthier place. FREE THE WEED!!!!

—-

I am not so sure about you statment but time will tell…

i have no interest in it.
But few days ago there was a guy with kanabis GMO business and ehe explained how diferent “versions” help with refiling symptoms of different things (desises).

guy was very eloquent it did sounds that he know wht he is talking about, he sad reserch ws done over many years so they “fine tune” plants for diferet desises.

my mid is open on that issue, but what i see now its just legalized drug only for purpose of taxation, so no thanks.

#60 NoName on 07.09.17 at 12:19 am

#54 Smoking Man on 07.08.17 at 10:37 pm

diversity and inclusivity or something like that

maybe some of those people are like me, they speak and write with an accent. if they are not i am willing to be in pictures for fee.

tell them he brings accent, morbid obisity, and bad breath, if i get “photo gig” we split money, what say you?

#61 old gringo on 07.09.17 at 12:25 am

For you real beer drinkers, here is one recent interesting survey

http://www.playboy.com/articles/mexican-beers-ranked

#62 Dee on 07.09.17 at 12:31 am

Need to add lender risk sharing on CMHC insured mortgages as the final nail of the osfi hammer

———————-

I am one comment of 100+ but know this. The mortgage brokers are playing games on the cmhc side of the business. Ask about the insured side and they will explain it perfectly and legitimately. Ask about what they do on the insured side and they erupt in laughter. You people think I’m joking but some know what im talking about. The cmhc side is where the party is. F**king osfi not taking care of business. Are they gonna let this turn into an all out crisis? Like wtf

#63 Stock Picker on 07.09.17 at 12:40 am

I firmly believe that all numbers are being massaged up for political reasons for the sake of the massive immigration fraud being perpetrated on citizens and that the EU is on the verge of collapse. The US has pulled its support of both the social engineering globalist and climate change scams. Without US support at 60% of global finance, the UN calamity will also collapse. I will not bet against the US , especially in this situation. EU is all noise no signal. But…..I agree with you on Canada as we are tied to the improving US economic-political climate…..and the fast growing that acknowledges Trudeau as a punk. Remember….the stock market is a forward looking indicator and I’m buying now knowing we’re an election away from a monster rally.

#64 Cloudy on 07.09.17 at 12:55 am

Excellent post (as always). When picking ETFs I basically compared similar tickers (such as XRE vs VRE) and they usually seem to track very very close so I basically chose the smallest MER. Are there times a slightly higher MER is worth it? Or is ishares vs vanguard tom-ay-to and tom-ah-to?

#65 James MF on 07.09.17 at 1:14 am

Thanks, Ryan! I’ve heeded your advice and adjusted the geographic weightings in my portfolio following earlier blog posts (and my own subsequent research). But I’ve also significantly increased my USD holdings. Where do you see the Canadian dollar going in H2/17?

#66 Mark on 07.09.17 at 2:14 am

Darn, just the sort of article I would’ve wanted to comment on. If not for falling off a bike last night (fortunately going uphill) onto the pavement, hitting my head, almost knocking a few teeth out, blackening my eye, etc. Oh what a mess I’m in.

Please pray for my recovery to be quick. I basically can’t eat, and can only take nutrition through a straw.

#67 TurnerNation on 07.09.17 at 2:36 am

Sympathy post for the new guy?
Blog dog Carney rocked the snivility big time.

Me, I do 1 star (wretched Queen W. hip hop club) avec rotgut, to 5 star ($12 a beer + tip natch). Always scrawling.

As ersatz blog dawg Cramdown – now a fixture at that nasal-y voiced realty blog in Toronto – once taled: “Now youz can’t leave:”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmHDHwb4vQU

A friend remarked: “I live in a million dollar house but struggle with monthly cash flow”

Aerosmith put it best. A house?
Renters rule: “I was cryin’ when I met you
Now I’m tryin’ to forget you”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tNtcj26HSc

M41ON

#68 Stock Picker on 07.09.17 at 2:47 am

Soggy #2…unless you are young and totally without assets the CRA will skin you alive if you dump your residency. Best to keep paying your medical and file a tax return …fly back before 183 days lapse and stay away from the tax implications….all nasty. As long as you’re an expat in Asia nobody asks for your opinion ax status…just get a multiple entry visa and leave the country every 90 days. Don’t complicate your life unnecessarily.

#69 Still hot? on 07.09.17 at 4:37 am

http://vancouversun.com/homes/buying-selling/sold-bought-renfrew-street-home-attracts-multiple-offers

Vancouver Sun needs it maintain its biggest revenue streams: re industry

#70 Glengarry Girl on 07.09.17 at 5:02 am

#36 A Reply to #17 Glengarry Girl

Thanks for the information, I should have clarified that I Severed my ties and my residency status after consulting with a Lawyer. I no longer file taxes in Canada, I file in the US. There are many strategies for different situations. Many people are looking for EXPAT status. They say it is good to hold a Visa and work in one country, citizenship in another and your investments in a third. This can give you Freedom and Choice. When we moved to the US with a Green Card, after 5 years we could become citizens. There is no way that I would ever consider this. I am a Proud Canadian, however, when it comes to taxation, you should be careful with citizenship. My immigration lawyer is excellent and he specializes in EXPATs consultation.

#71 Fortune500 on 07.09.17 at 8:07 am

MLS Toronto Visualization and Data Set

http://www.shafquatarefeen.com/mls

Might be of interest

#72 A Reply to #70 Glengarry Girl on 07.09.17 at 8:08 am

“Thanks for the information. I should have clarified that I severed my ties and my residency status after consulting with a lawyer. I no longer file taxes in Canada; I file in the US.”

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/nnrsdnts/ndvdls/nnrs-eng.html#txblgtns

“As a non-resident of Canada, you pay tax on income you receive from sources in Canada. The type of tax you pay and the requirement to file an income tax return depend on the type of income you receive.

“Generally, Canadian income received by a non-resident is subject to Part XIII tax or Part I tax.”

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/nnrsdnts/ndvdls/nnrs-eng.html#flngrtrn

“The type of Canadian income you receive during the tax year determines which guide and forms book you should use.”

Lastly, be aware of the deemed-resident rules.

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/nnrsdnts/ndvdls/dmd-eng.html

#73 Dups on 07.09.17 at 9:03 am

Here goes TSX, after the lead stock is sold. Hey we have BOC to save us right. Wrong, we are in for a mother of TSX bear storm.
https://www.insidertradings.org/canadian-pacific-railway-cp-stocks-unloaded-by-raymond-james-financial-services-advisors/24391.html

#74 West Coast Woman on 07.09.17 at 9:10 am

@#14 Waiverless writes “What’s your opinion on addition only rebalancing. Currently I rebalance my 100k ish portfolio with top ups only. Versus selling to rebalance. I’d rather not incur the fees to sell the etfs so just keep topping up as things go down. Good strategy or should I think about selling performers to rebalance laggards.”

I do the same thing, rebalance by buying more low performers but I don’t sell high performers. It’s a strategy that seems to make sense – interested in thoughts from others on this strategy.

#75 Glengarry Girl on 07.09.17 at 9:36 am

I’m reading a lot of Fear Mongering and misinformation. Cashing out investments and selling assets and paying taxes at a rate under 25% is not being skinned alive. It really depends on what you do with it. Financial planners and Hedge fund managers will tell you to “stay the coarse” no difference to real estate agents saying “you better get in this market before you are priced out forever” Both are incorrect. I believe that the future taxation may very well be higher than when I cashed out. I also believe that the Stock Markets and traditional retirement funds will take a big hit. Sone of us have no confidence and are sitting this one out. At the same time enjoying life to the fullest, not loosing sleep.

#76 Ryan Lewenza on 07.09.17 at 9:50 am

JSS “Hi Ryan, where do you see the tsx at by end of year 2017? 15,500?”

I see the TSX closing the year between 16,000 and 16,500. – Ryan L

#77 Ryan Lewenza on 07.09.17 at 9:56 am

James MF “Thanks, Ryan! I’ve heeded your advice and adjusted the geographic weightings in my portfolio following earlier blog posts (and my own subsequent research). But I’ve also significantly increased my USD holdings. Where do you see the Canadian dollar going in H2/17?”

In the short-term the CAD is overbought and due to pullback. I think the market is pricing in more rate hikes than the BoC will deliver. But if I’m right on higher oil prices in 2018 then the CAD will benefit from this and I could see the CAD hit the $0.80s. So short-term it goes lower but then recovers in 2018. – Ryan L

#78 Ryan Lewenza on 07.09.17 at 10:03 am

Cloudy “When picking ETFs I basically compared similar tickers (such as XRE vs VRE) and they usually seem to track very very close so I basically chose the smallest MER. Are there times a slightly higher MER is worth it? Or is ishares vs vanguard tom-ay-to and tom-ah-to?”

In determining which ETF to go with we look at 3 main factors. First and most important is lowest cost. Second is liquidity and size. We generally won’t invest in ETFs with less than $50-$75 mln. Third is how well they track their benchmark (i.e. tracking error). Yes there are times it makes sense to pay a higher MER. There are now a lot of actively managed ETFs and I believe for certain areas it makes sense to have an active manager. The high yield debt market is a good example. I would rather pay a bit more for a good portfolio manager to pick high yield bonds in the ETF rather than just going with an passive index. Basically in less efficient markets (i.e. high yield debt, small cap stocks) it makes sense to use an active manager and pay a higher MER. – Ryan L

#79 Ryan Lewenza on 07.09.17 at 10:12 am

Waiverless “What’s your opinion on addition only rebalancing. Currently I rebalance my 100k ish portfolio with top ups only. Versus selling to rebalance. I’d rather not incur the fees to sell the etfs so just keep topping up as things go down. Good strategy or should I think about selling performers to rebalance laggards.”

No we would recommend rebalancing 1-2 per year by trimming your winners and adding to your underperforming assets. First have your “strategic” or long-term asset mix. We use a 60/40 asset mix. Then as stocks outperform and your equity weight increases to 62%, for example, then sell 2% and get it back to the 60%. Yes there are higher trading costs with this but we think its worth it since its a disciplined approach to timing your winners and adding to losers. Over time this adds alpha. And it helps to control for risks as it keeps you at that 60% equity weight. – Ryan L

#80 Ryan Lewenza on 07.09.17 at 10:22 am

Dwilly “Serious question. Do you guys have any data to support that your tweaking of portfolio allocations adds any alpha, versus just setting a fixed allocation and sticking to it? Or reduces volatility/improves Sharpe?
I get the sense your tweaks are pretty minor. Maybe going from 17% maple equity to 20%. It’s unlikely this could hurt much (but then nor is it likely that it’ll help much).”

Yes we make smaller tweaks over time and avoid making huge calls (i.e. sell everything and go to cash). We stick with a 60/40 asset mix and then just adjust our weights and exposures. For example we’re overweight corporate bonds and prefs right now in fixed income. And after we sold our US small cap position we reduced our US weight by 5% to 16%. With those proceeds we added to Europe and EM. We’ll know in 12 months whether this was the right call. Your right that since we’re not making huge bets and more just tweaking around the edges that its not going to have a huge impact on performance but that’s what were paid for, and I have a decent track record of delivering alpha so that’s I’m going to try to do for our clients. If through our analysis and changes we can add an extra 1%, say 7.5% versus 6.5%, then that adds up over the years. – Ryan L

#81 Trumpapalooza on 07.09.17 at 10:31 am

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a tweet on Sunday that he discussed forming a cyber security unit to guard against election hacking with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Tweeting after his first meeting with Putin on Saturday, Trump said now was the time to work constructively with Moscow.

“Putin & I discussed forming an impenetrable Cyber Security unit so that election hacking, & many other negative things, will be guarded and safe,” he said following their talks at the G-20 summit in Hamburg, Germany….

Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida immediately criticized the move on Twitter, saying Putin was not a trusted partner.

Partnering with Putin on a “Cyber Security Unit” is akin to partnering with (Syrian President Bashar al) Assad on a “Chemical Weapons Unit,” he wrote.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/09/trump-says-discussed-forming-cyber-security-unit-with-putin.html

#82 oncebittwiceshy on 07.09.17 at 11:36 am

There will be two big challenges with real estate moving forward after a major crash/correction.

The number one issue will be credit. I’m pretty darn sure that the banks will get burned to a certain degree but not nearly as much as the Credit Unions. Tightening of credit will severely curtail lending for everyone. Those marginal players will undoubtedly be excluded.

http://vancitycondoguide.com/more-stress-testing-proposed-for-canadian-mortgages/
“The number of uninsured mortgages surged after October, 2016 when the Government introduced a stress targeting insured mortgages (less than 20%). Borrowers and lenders then got creative to avoid the stress test, bundling loans from different sources to get the borrowers down payment up to 20% and thus avoiding the stress test of 4.64%.”

The number two issue will be buyers. Foreign buyers came here because of price appreciation and “safe haven” status. That changes in a heartbeat when this house of cards falls apart.

Local buyers will be extremely reluctant to buy anything until they think that the price has bottomed similarly to the attitude of sellers waiting for the best price to sell. One has to also consider how many qualified buyers are left. Sure, there are those that bought, sold and rented but for the better part we are not talking about a horde of waiting buyers.

In the 80’s, it was the builders and developers that really got the ball moving downhill when they dropped prices, offered interest rate buybacks and gave away cars with each purchase.

I think that you will find the bottom on this correction shocking when you consider the extreme debt and over leverage supporting this market

#83 InvestorsFriend on 07.09.17 at 12:35 pm

Ryan and Waiverless on Rebalancing

#79 Ryan Lewenza on 07.09.17 at 10:12 am
Waiverless “What’s your opinion on addition only rebalancing. Currently I rebalance my 100k ish portfolio with top ups only. Versus selling to rebalance. I’d rather not incur the fees to sell the etfs so just keep topping up as things go down. Good strategy or should I think about selling performers to rebalance laggards.”

No we would recommend rebalancing 1-2 per year by trimming your winners and adding to your underperforming assets. First have your “strategic” or long-term asset mix. We use a 60/40 asset mix. Then as stocks outperform and your equity weight increases to 62%, for example, then sell 2% and get it back to the 60%. Yes there are higher trading costs with this but we think its worth it since its a disciplined approach to timing your winners and adding to losers. Over time this adds alpha. And it helps to control for risks as it keeps you at that 60% equity weight. – Ryan L

*********************************
I’m in an agreeable mood this fine morning in Edmonton and I agree with both approaches in different circumstances.

I think Ryan’s approach is more suited to larger portfolios and to rebalancing between asset classes as he talks about and also between world geographys. And all the more so in registered accounts where both tax dollars and tax calculations are not involved.

Warren Buffett would approve of Waiverless’ approach especially if it were individual stocks within an equity portfolio (and Warren would have almost zero fixed income at today’s rates). The same might apply to investing in highly specific sector ETFs. Warren pointed out that a wise major league team does not trade away the player who emerges as its top guy just becomes the team is becoming more dependent on such a super star.

With a $100k portfolio waiverless is likely at the stage where annual savings are about the same as or larger than the annual return and so mathematically he can do the re balancing by adding to the laggards. That might not be the case for a 7 figure portfolio where annual savings are typically dwarfed by the annual return – though perhaps with dividends…

For all taxable portfolios I would suggest avoiding triggering taxable capital gains to the extent possible. (Yes, you still sell dogs or wildly over-valued stocks/ETFs) The eventual portfolio will benefit greatly by deferring recognizing gains and so deferring income taxes. Also small investors may wish to avoid the hassle of creating taxable events that need to be tracked and reported.

#84 Rainclouds on 07.09.17 at 12:36 pm

Well this is only year 7 so what’s the hurry?

http://www.lawtimesnews.com/201609195644/focus-on/focus-does-privacy-law-trump-competition-law

Never mind Nova Scotia and 300 million people south of us ALREADY have what seems to be taking eons for the Legal Contortions ongoing in the Fed Court of appeal. TREB VS COMPETITION BUREAU (Case was heard in Dec 2016………..)

Some of the commentary around privacy are rather out there. As in “you might see a little girls bedroom on the pictures, Knowing what type of TV you have is a goldmine”.

Decision whenever, to be appealed to Supreme Court. D

#85 Rainclouds on 07.09.17 at 12:39 pm

most likely a final decision in 2019. 8 years…..to achieve information parity on the internet on existing technology that has been in place for a decade now

If we did this to Airbnb there would be no rental shortage………….

What an ass backward country

Tirade over

#86 Peter Engy on 07.09.17 at 1:18 pm

@#70 Glengarry girl

Can I get the contact for your immigration lawyer?

#87 For those about to flop... on 07.09.17 at 1:47 pm

Pink Lemonade stand in Surrey.

These guys were late to the party in August 2016 when they agreed to pay 1.32 for this place in stunning hamlet of Surrey.

Assessed at 1.24 they have their work cut out to be made whole.

There has been a lot of talk about grog this weekend,maybe these guys should have just gone to the Malabar…

M43BC

13697 Malabar Avenue, Surrey

Dec 15:$1,459,900
Jul 8: $1,350,000
Change: – 109900.00 -8%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=13697%20Malabar%20Avenue,%20White%20Rock&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA3NUZNQQ==

#88 InvestorsFriend on 07.09.17 at 2:00 pm

Calculation of Capital Gain on U.S. dollar transfers to Canada

Any Canadian with a taxable U.S. investment account faces, I believe, a difficult time in tracking gains or losses on U.S. currency brought back to Canada.

Here is the situation. You Open a U.S. dollar taxable trading account and put in initial cash or stock. Your Canadian dollar cost of the U.S. cash is easy to know at that point.

Subsequently new U.S dollars come into that account from U.S. dividends. The cost base of your U.S. dollars in Canadian dollars now increases by that dividend times the exchange rate (You may use specific date exchange rate or annual average).

Subsequently you may realise a loss or gain by selling U.S. shares. You must calculate you gain in Canadian dollars. You MUST use the exchange rate on the date of transaction (or technically the settlement date) and you cannot use the annual average exchange rate here. In addition this transaction affects your cost base of those U.S. dollars in Canadian dollar terms.

Let’s say after a couple years you transfer some U.S. dollars back to the Canadian side. (This does NOT shown up in your annual trading summary, as least not the ones I get from TD) This is when you now need to know your average cost base for the U.S. dollars in Canadian dollars.

I rather suspect most people don’t report this gain as it is not showing up in the trading summary. You must report if it is over $200 gain.

I just now doing this calculation going back a few years. I would be amazed if more than a tiny percentage of investors would be tracking and doing this calculation properly.

Anyone out there doing there own taxes and can claim to to this correctly? Perhaps using a template spreadsheet?

Even professional would have a big job to do it. A lot of data entry.

Any experience?

#89 InvestorsFriend on 07.09.17 at 2:07 pm

P.S. to my calculation of cost base of U.S. dollars

When you buy some U.S. stocks using say 10% of the U.S. dollars you must reduce your total cost base of U.S. cash by 10% of the cost base (in Canadian dollars) before this transaction.

Unless I am way off base this calculation is getting very detailed even for just a few U.S. stocks and transactions. Over whelming is there is a lot of trading.

Any experience?

(No wonder I prefer RRSP investing and TSFA)

#90 More Trumpnanigans on 07.09.17 at 2:27 pm

Former Defense Secretary Ash Carter was asked about Trump’s proposal to work with Putin on cyber defense.

And he expressed his belief that it was a very bad idea.

“I’ve seen all this going back to Russian — Soviet days. When confronted with something they’ve done wrong, they ask for US intelligence — old trick,” Carter stated, referencing reports that Putin asked for intelligence reports showing meddling.

Carter then said that for Putin to propose a cyber security unit is akin to “the guy who robbed your house proposing a working group on burglary.”

“It is they who did this,” Carter added.

#91 For those about to flop... on 07.09.17 at 2:37 pm

Pink Lemonade stand in Coquitlam.

The sellers before these ones managed to get out with around a 5% profit and luckily for them these guys were there to fill the void.

They are on the hook for 1.36 and the assessment is on their side.

Unfortunately for them the market refuses to go past last years Crest…

M43BC

1214 CREST CRT COQUITLAM

May 25:$1,498,888
Jul 4: $1,459,888
Change: – 39000.00 -3%

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/1214-crest-court

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzWE5NMQ==

#92 Mark on 07.09.17 at 3:39 pm

“Anyone out there doing there own taxes and can claim to to this correctly? Perhaps using a template spreadsheet?”

Interactive Brokers provides a “Foreign Exchange (FX) Worksheet” which has this all incorporated. And even handles the fact that a capital gain or loss may be incurred if, for instance, a USD$ dividend is used to pay off a USD$ loan. Marking it all to Canadian dollars, and calculating a realized gain or loss on receipt of the dividend.

I doubt many “retail investors” who buy foreign stocks on margin actually understand that they need not only to report the gain on the stock translated back to CAD$, but they also need to take a gain or a loss on the repayment of the financing whether it be through the proceeds of sale of securities, or just receiving dividends from the securities and having such dividends applied to the margin loan.

#93 Spaccone on 07.09.17 at 3:43 pm

#88 InvestorsFriend on 07.09.17 at 2:00 pm
Calculation of Capital Gain on U.S. dollar transfers to Canada

=========================================

I’ve been tracking my portfolio and tax in Excel for many, many years now. I will never use any program. I was forced to track ACB myself as for many years I had my portfolio split between two different brokers. I recently moved it from Excel to Google Sheets as it’s easier to see portfolio value in real time and you have a backup in the “cloud”.

You have to treat/calculate USD like you would a stock. The USD amount is the “shares”, and the CAD amount is your cost.

#94 Smoking Man on 07.09.17 at 10:43 pm

The conflict.

Yesterday when very drunk posting about the image of 7 white men and two white women executives holding up a gay pride flag while claiming diversity, RBC virtue signaling to the newly schooled, it was right on.

Sober me delete it on linked in in the morning. That deadly force trying to make me come to the dark side again.

That sober asshole in my skin is a chicken shit writer with no balls. Don’t listen to Smoking Man before 9 pm, that loser.

But I knew if I kept it on linked in, DM would start an invitation on who Smoking Man is. They would have tracked down JS, the traders who know me would have said, rain man, genius. sees the future.

And my ass would be owned by the machine.

Freedom to see it like you see it, nothing else matters.

#95 Smoking Man on 07.09.17 at 10:50 pm

You suck dogs, trying to put words together that make you look smart. You are not. Lift a leg piss on a tree, it makes you worthy in the minds of your brainwashed peers.

Anything else is a distraction.

The machine knows your thoughts.

I’m on the run, weaving, and twisting. The monkey actors who memorize words and spit them out are the heroes in Hollywood. The writer who penned it, a lunatic.

Thank my god I’m crazy.

#96 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.10.17 at 1:16 am

#45
floppy, you’ve got good beer taste.
Take this from an expat German/Austrian.
Henry Weinhard is the best Bavarian/Austrian style beer in North America.
Drinks just like water.
Smooth and easy.
Got it at Fred Meyer’s, but now it’s harder to find.
So they got it at Amazon now.
Which is kinda weird.
Are they delivering it with drones?
Half an our or it’s free.
Gotta go with the times, I guess.

#97 agreed on 07.10.17 at 9:28 am

Terrible advice —>
“You can’t go broke taking a profit”

The best strategy for taxable accounts is pick your stocks (or ETF/tracker funds) carefully, and to hold for a very long time.

Phil Fisher wrote about this well in his book, Common Stocks for Uncommon Profits
…………

the quote by Ryan implies market timing is a successful endeavour.

i’d like to see this firm’s 3 /5/10 year track records vs a 60/40 blend

Ryan does your firm have this available?

#98 Glengarry Girl on 07.10.17 at 4:12 pm

#86 Peter Engy

Our Immigration Lawyer’s contact

http://www.dickinson-wright.com/our-people/christian-allen

I would recommend a good accountant that specializes in tax advice for EXPATs, mine retired a few years ago.