How they see us

Now that we’ve all chugged Canuck beer, waved the flag, watched Rick Mercer get wet, been told diversity, gender parity and selfies are good and ignited enough fireworks to clean out the Senate, let’s get back to reality. Nine days away from the start of an interest rate-tightening cycle and 48 hours from the release of some shocking real estate stats, it’s useful to see how some people around the worlds are viewing us.

Take the party hat off.

From Dubai:
“Canadian home prices have gone parabolic since 2010, up 60 per cent despite the plunge in crude oil prices and the election of a Liberal Party Prime Minister in Ottawa. Yet there are now unmistakable signs that the Canadian housing bubble is about to pop. New home sales have plunged even though prices are at record highs. The governor of the Bank of Canada and the CEO of Royal Bank of Canada have warned investors about the lethal risks of leveraged home price speculation. Affordability ratios are in the stratosphere. Canadian household debt to disposable income is at all-time highs, at a staggering 169 per cent. Flippers boast about their offplan “profits” at cocktail parties.

“The coming interest rate rise will be property’s kiss of death. There are rumours of systemic fraud and more mortgage lender failures even as I write. Yes, this time the wolf is here.

“Unlike growth companies on a stock market, a housing bubble is destined to collapse since homes lose value over time due to depreciation and shifts in consumer preferences. Home price spirals destroy, not create, economic value and can often gut the stability of banking systems via default and retail sales due to negative wealth effects on consumer spending. As Santayana said, “those who refuse to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them” – specially when debt is the high-octane fuel that burns homeowners alive.”

From the UK (International Property Forum):
“There is intense speculation at the moment that around 50% of prospective foreign investors are now looking out with Canada after the government introduced the 15% tax. The fact is there are many markets around the world which offer good value, although Canada has made many people rich, where the tax system for overseas investors is nowhere near as onerous. At the end of the day, perhaps some of these critics need to sit down and consider which groups of investors have pushed Canadian property prices to all-time highs? Where would the new build market be without Chinese investors? What does the future hold for the condo market with reduced overseas interest?

“In light of the worldwide economic collapse in 2008/9 governments around the world did whatever they could to attract new investment especially to real estate markets. Overseas investors offered welcome support to real estate prices at a time when markets were in freefall. Fast forward about 10 years and we now see governments around the world looking to penalise overseas investors – the same investors who have supported domestic property markets for some time.”

From the US (Seeking Alpha):
“Since the financial crisis, we’ve stayed away from investing in Canada due to the country’s high level of household debt. Right now, we believe that it’s even more important for investors to avoid Canada as recent weakness in a Canadian mortgage lender may signal that the household debt bubble primarily concentrated in real estate may be ready to burst.

“The reason why household debt is such an important thing to look at has to do with how consumers drive economies. In the US consumers account for almost 70% of GDP. While the figure for Canada is not as high – consumer spending up north is only about 56% of GDP – it’s still the largest part of the Canadian economy. When consumers began building new homes and taking out second mortgages and home equity lines of credit and using that extra money to buy goods and services, it drives economic growth. However, when consumers take on debt it must be paid back eventually. When the housing bubble collapsed in the US, so too did the underpinning of what was driving consumption spending. Because it accounted for such a large percentage of the economy, we had the worst recession since the Great Depression.

We can see eerie similarities between Canada today and the US prior to the great recession.”

From a Global view (BIS):

Yes, the Bank for International Settlements is full of Debbie Downers who think Canadians are about to step into the deep end with cement shoes. But, seriously, this chart is a tad scary. — Garth

184 comments ↓

#1 Fake News on 07.03.17 at 5:55 pm

Prices in Greater Vancouver as still as high as they have ever been.

Not really. The sales mix has changed. Lots more to come. — Garth

#2 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.03.17 at 5:56 pm

It’s going to be an epic housing crash in the GTA. Realtors ,mortgage broker shills, and speculators are already crying up a storm about 0.25% interest increase. The house of cards is falling as prices in Toronto are down $110000+ in 9 weeks. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#3 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.03.17 at 5:59 pm

Everyone in the world knows mortgage fraud is out of control. Everyone in the world now knows RE is a house of cards built on fraud. Everyone in the world knows RE is going to crash HARD! Nothing is selling in the GTA. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#4 Muhammad on 07.03.17 at 6:02 pm

One of my friend pre-booked a new house and they have already paid close to $50K, now the developer is asking to move in September 2017 and asked for mortgage approval. They checked all banks and no one is approving mortgage because their income is not declared.

Real estate agents are still very brave and doing fraud by creating fake documents and they have already got one who is willing to do everything they are looking for.
I wish Government can crack down on these corrupt real estate agents and make the system transparent and fair.

#5 Anon on 07.03.17 at 6:08 pm

Late last year I started renting a house that was on the market for a year at 300k and wouldn’t sell.

I’ve also watched the price of another house near me slide from about 300k to 230k since late 2015.

If either of them hit 200k I might just buy a house, but for now, having liquidity is pretty awesome.

#6 Shawn on 07.03.17 at 6:09 pm

According to Zolo, many peripheral GTA regions are down ~20% already (Richmond Hill, Markham, Oakville, Vaughan). Mississauga and Brampton are down ~10% from the top. These numbers could triple in the coming months, years.

#7 Cdn Mom on 07.03.17 at 6:12 pm

Garth, re: final graphic with private debt to GDP ratios by country…

Do you have any insight into how easy it is to obtain business loans in the other countries?

My experience regarding business loans, and my observance of the experience of others, is that business loans are exceptionally difficult in Canada. Small businesses often must use personal credit products (unsecured LOCs, HELOCs, and even credit cards) to get off the ground. This includes the self-employed moving up to small business with employees.

Canada’s big banks don’t like small business, unless you’re switching from another bank, already loaded with credit products. My experience is you are but an annoying gnat.

#8 Cdn Mom on 07.03.17 at 6:13 pm

*exceptionally difficult to OBTAIN

#9 Freedumb on 07.03.17 at 6:13 pm

#2 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.03.17 at 5:56 pm

———————————————

You really have such a positive way of writing. You are one of my favorite imaginary friends. I have risked nothing and it feels so good to be safe from being hurt by other people. I am free from pain.

#10 Sugarlips on 07.03.17 at 6:26 pm

So are we looking at an across the board wipeout or just detached dwellings in the 2 markets that detached themselves from reality some years ago?

Are studios in downtown Vanc going to crazh too or condos in Calgary/Edmonton/wherever going to get smashed just as hard?

The boom was regional on the way up so…?

#11 TurnerNation on 07.03.17 at 6:28 pm

Great another over educated brown Lab giving us advice. Doesn’t it have a beer cup to balance on head for owner’s delight?

Fitting title. “How they see us”.
Saw this today wondered if they are laughing at us or with us.
All the Queen’s bankers, all the Queen’s men:

https://i.cbc.ca/1.1476254.1379028213!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_620/hi-carney-poloz-cp04375492-8col.jpg

#12 Millennial falcon on 07.03.17 at 6:28 pm

Happy housing hiccup everyone.

#13 SimplyPut7 on 07.03.17 at 6:28 pm

I have known for a while that we sound weird after talking to people outside of Canada about our housing market.

They think we’re crazy and give me that look when you know someone is about to do something stupid.

#14 Howard on 07.03.17 at 6:29 pm

“Would you like fries with that?” – every former Canuck RE Agent, circa 2019

#15 Sorry - no crash! on 07.03.17 at 6:32 pm

Finally, an honest write-up by “From the UK (International Property Forum)” about WHY Canada’s housing market has remained afloat despite wages being stagnant and entire sectors being decimated (i.e. oil patch and related services)….money moving in from China! lol

Soooo many people drunk on the idea that these pathetic interest rate rises will do anything. You kidding me?

This is a short-term pullback because the Canadian government ain’t ever going to kill the goose that lays it’s golden eggs. Foreign earned money is here to stay and will only grow bigger if the government senses that housing is in real trouble.

Why do you think Bitcoin valuation is sky high? Because it’s used to transfer foreign investment without being subjected to government limits! lol

Unlike Australia, we still have a long way to go before our political class starts to get worried. Article about Australia:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/in-australia-backlash-takes-hold-over-chinese-money-infecting-politics-business/article35461608/

#16 Winsty on 07.03.17 at 6:34 pm

Yes folks, it seems the party is over. Nothing selling in Etobicoke, lots of for sale signs, but no buyers. Anyone who still believes there house is worth X should try listing it, to learn the truth. Your crappy towns, slanty semi’s, rotting 100 year old, shoe box condos are all worth a lot less than you imagine, if you can find a buyer at all these days. Your paper wealth has vanished.

#17 Debtslavecreator on 07.03.17 at 6:34 pm

This will be a brutal adjustment over the next 4-5 years and I will be negatively impacted but this economy needs to be built on anything but RE speculation and the associated debt
Will be buying USD over the next 2 weeks
Use any CAD strength to buy foreign assets

#18 Delusional in Milton on 07.03.17 at 6:37 pm

I don’t think the people in Milton got the memo: No one wants to buy your crappy chip board homes anymore. Wake up and smell the smoke, your equity is burning up! Ha ha, can’t stand you losers!

#19 Mark on 07.03.17 at 6:42 pm

So Canada should experience the most amount of deflation out of those countries on the graph, as it is the most extreme outlier.

Good for those who own the CAD$, likely to eventually hit $1.50 USD$ in the future. But terrible if you have to somehow pay a mortgage back in very expensive CAD$.

#20 Catalyst on 07.03.17 at 6:44 pm

Lets get some updated ratios shall we.

I feel as though GDP is an outdated measure in today’s economy. It doesn’t capture much of the true economic activity especially in technology.

Secondly, the debt to disposable income often quoted in the 165% range as a scare tactic. Most debt is mortgage debt and not due to repaid often for 20 to 30 years.

To me the real canary is the plummeting unemployment figures here and in the US with no meaningful wage growth. Without wage growth then elevating debt levels will be a big issue.

#21 End of August & September on 07.03.17 at 6:45 pm

That is when the June & July GDP numbers come out. Then we will find out the impact of 416 RE on Canada (and YVR).

I think the combination of “paper wealth” loss from RE in 416 and YVR and “income loss” from rising rates, will see spending go down.

That is the WHEN in all likelihood.

The questions will be “how much and how fast”?

In THEORY, it ought to be a slow unwinding [based on rate increases] and estimates of RE et. al. accounting for 20% of the economy.

Then, there is the PSYCHOLOGY of the thing. Will fear take over and start a crash and/or a “hunkering down” in spending as paper wealth dwindles as does cash flow, who knows?

It has happened before in Canada, in the early 80s and early 90s.

We’ll find out in 2 to 3 months.

HONESTLY, I think we will go into recession in 4th Qtr as it seems to me that Canadians have been financing large GDP gains with their RE ATM card and/or borrowing beyond their means to maintain a lifestyle they can no longer afford.

#22 Doug t on 07.03.17 at 6:48 pm

Some peeps is gonna get SMOKED

RATM

#23 I'M NOT POLOZ on 07.03.17 at 6:51 pm

Dr. Garth Turner, you sound very Bearish, but you didn’t reveal one important thing : The impact of a Housing crash in Toronto and Vancouver when the CAD/USD is on a Bullish BUY trend (at 76.91 cents as we speak).

When “Boost exports at 50-cent Loonies” Poloz increases interest rates to 0.75% this month (88% probability), it will appreciate the Loonie, but what happens when housing collapses at the same time?

Will Poloz want a 10-cent Loonie after that to compete with the Norwegian Krone? What about 8th 10ths of 1 cent Loonie (US$=$125 Canadian loonies) to compete with Japan to boost exports?

#24 Entrepreneur on 07.03.17 at 6:56 pm

It does seem that the Toronto housing is going downwards faster than the Vancouver area. Is that because of the Major of Toronto, John Tory had something to do with it? For sure. I think Major of Vancouver, Gregory Robertson and Major of Victoria, Lisa Helps should get in touch with him. These two run around asking for help with the rental shortages, housing affordability, etc.

As for the foreign investors they are not talking to the right people like our realtors and news. But maybe they heard about the investors crying. Or is it all hush, hush.

May have adverted a depression but still on the same path as bloggers have mentioned repeat history.

#25 Freedom First on 07.03.17 at 7:01 pm

Hmmm……I suppose I would fit into the category of “They”. Who knew.

Also, I hear here and other places that there is quite a # of people blaming the Donald, and not the Fed for the interest rates heading up.

Also hearing the Fed is raising rates to spite the POTUS. Probably just tin foilers, eh.

#26 Timmy on 07.03.17 at 7:02 pm

Prices are as high in Vancouver as they have ever been. You can’t even get a 2 bedroom condo for under 500K so I don’t see any signs of a correction.

#27 Shawn on 07.03.17 at 7:04 pm

#14
Mark
So Canada should experience the most amount of deflation out of those countries on the graph, as it is the most extreme outlier.
Good for those who own the CAD$, likely to eventually hit $1.50 USD$ in the future. But terrible if you have to somehow pay a mortgage back in very expensive CAD$.

In absolute terms deflation increases the value of currency. In relative terms it doesn’t work this way. A good recent example is JPYUSD. Japan has experienced real deflation since 1990 yet JPY has not appreciated against USD or other major currencies. In a depression, deflation increases the value of money relative to all assets. When one country experiences deflation and others normal inflation, often the value of the country experiencing deflation will see currency devaluation as well – especially when there are more stable perceived currency options.

#28 Mark on 07.03.17 at 7:05 pm

“Foreign earned money is here to stay and will only grow bigger if the government senses that housing is in real trouble. “

If foreign earned money were actually a thing, and such was being brought to Canada, why are so many CAD$ ending up offshore in the reserve accounts of foreign central banks then?

Canadian assets are being sold, not bought on the net. CAD$ is flowing offshore to buy foreign assets in significant net quantities. Foreign central banks and reserve holders are gladly exchanging foreign currencies for CAD$ in order to facilitate this. Evidence of foreign participation in Canada’s RE marketplace is slim to non-existent. If CAD$ and CAD$-denominated assets were in significant demand internationally, we’d have a much, much higher CAD$ than we do today.

#29 inflation tank on 07.03.17 at 7:08 pm

I like to own my piece of Canada and so I do… The world sees us thru much more than these graphs or opinions of terrible things to come… Stay put with your ownership as you have for the last 5 to 10 years… Fresh water,,, no guns,,, no daily mass killings,,, shining cities,,, healthcare for all,,, from the Atlantic to the Pacific as one country for all… There will be much much more demand for the few things I’ve mentioned,,, much much more demand to come…

You need not own property to enjoy any of those Canadian benefits. Old school thinking. — Garth

#30 south burnaby gardener on 07.03.17 at 7:08 pm

Two thanks you’s before I repost my questions from yesterday:
First to #62 Long-Time Lurker on 07.03.17 at 12:13 am for the list of ETFS
Next to “for those about to flop” for all the pink snow etc postings. They *are appreciated*

As a long time blog reader and infrequent blog poster. We took Mr Turner’s advice last year and cashed out, selling our house in Burnaby last spring. Currently renting, I am looking ahead to when we won’t have the desire to travel as much and/or won’t be able to afford the heath insurance premiums. At that point I would like to buy a townhouse, and go back to having a (small) garden.
There are advantages to renting such as being able to just pick up and go, but when I can’t travel, I will want to garden again. Will need a very large, structurally sound balcony with a 5 year lease or to buy a townhouse for the sort of garden I am interested in. Think Thomas Hobbs/”Quatre Vents”, not kale, community gardens or petunias.
Garth/Doug/Blog dogs, I have two questions: 1 ) Do we retain a portion of our net worth in cash, so that in say 10 years time, we can go back into the market? If all of our network is invested, I would think we would take a hell of a tax hit having to sell ~ 750, 000 in investments to buy a small townhouse.
2) How do we calculate the 90-minus-your-age=target-value-of-RE, as you get older and your are drawing down on your network? Do you use a target age in the future?

#31 Entrepreneur on 07.03.17 at 7:09 pm

Good call #20 Catalyst on “GDP is an outdated measure…” May I add used and abused to look good.

Only when we have the truth then we can collectively move forwards in the right direction. Or shall we keep on pretending.

#32 Shawn on 07.03.17 at 7:13 pm

#14
Mark

The 2 prior real estate corrections in Canada (early 80s, early 90s) have resulted in a decline in CADUSD.

#33 Mark on 07.03.17 at 7:14 pm

“I think the combination of “paper wealth” loss from RE in 416 and YVR and “income loss” from rising rates, will see spending go down.”

Don’t even need rising rates for that. Just falling prices. And with prices stagnant since 2013, and now falling, that appears to be falling in line. If housing falls by, say, 5%/year, and imputed rent only nets out to be a 3% return, even 0% is an awfully high rate of interest to be paying on a housing finance loan.

I think people are way too caught up, egged on by Realtors, that housing can’t decline unless interest rates go up. Housing, like any other asset class, is governed by supply and demand. With such a massive supply-side response to the housing sector, its just a matter of time, independent of interest rates, as to when RE will revert to prices more reflective of the cost of supply, depreciated accordingly. Or even fall much further as confidence in mortgage credit disappears.

#34 dakkie on 07.03.17 at 7:16 pm

“Investors Are Being Swindled”: Canadian Accountants Slammed

http://investmentwatchblog.com/investors-are-being-swindled-canadian-accountants-slammed/

#35 Dee on 07.03.17 at 7:16 pm

People are looking for mortgages from other alt b lenders. There are caps in place for home trust now. They can no longer lend an infinite amount of dollars. It is said they are still originating mortgages (I will find out soon). The other players in the alt b space are picking up the slack but are charging at minimum 1% higher rates than before. Banks have tightened. The private lending market is getting tighter and more selective as well.

This is going to be a classic. The people I know that were unsure if this thing would correct but bought are now sipping champagne. They have zero concern as they cant imagine anything dramatic happening. They are insane. The gta is 45%-60% over valued. People need to put boots on and get in the trenches and talk to people. The borrowing binge is scary.

#36 Mark on 07.03.17 at 7:25 pm

“To me the real canary is the plummeting unemployment figures here and in the US with no meaningful wage growth.”

If unemployment were truly plummeting, then wages wouldn’t be comatose. But it is very likely that unemployment isn’t plummeting. Participation rates seem to bear this out as well. Either there is a problem with the methodology used, or there is a very severe problem with that of employment quality.

With falling wages in the Scientific, Technical and Professional category, a category of employment which is heavily responsible for increasing productivity and should be absolutely flying in an economic recovery — it seems pretty hard to believe that a ‘recovery’ is actually taking place. If anything, that data, along with the recent data showing month over month deflation in Canada, indicates that the economy is most likely in a state of contraction, and that optimism towards sustainable rate increases is severely overblown.

#37 Mark on 07.03.17 at 7:28 pm

“The 2 prior real estate corrections in Canada (early 80s, early 90s) have resulted in a decline in CADUSD.”

True, but those were overlaid with severe declines in commodities, and severe outperformance of the US economy due to one-off factors such as the Internet bubble in the US.

A $1.5 USD for every CAD$ scenario probably would be in a scenario where a Canadian sector that is heavily over-represented in our economy, such as precious metals mining, outperforms, while the US is in the doldrums.

All the excess speculative capital liberated by the collapse of Canada’s housing market (and that of debt deflation worldwide) will have to end up somewhere. Just remember that.

#38 dups on 07.03.17 at 7:33 pm

I would not bet against the US or it’s dollar right now. Canada is far from getting it’s ducks in order, our dollar needs strong economic backing not just fabricated Gov numbers before it really starts to beat the USD. Canada has to come down with its housing market first then come up stronger than ever. Lots of work to do….

#39 BC Renter (for now) on 07.03.17 at 7:33 pm

Quick calculations show that my rent is about $800/month less than purchasing and the savings don’t include the tax grab insanity that will happen with the NDP and Greens fighting over the steering wheel in this clown car province.

Oscar Wilde once said “The best revenge is living well”. I can say add to that: “The best way to live well in a socialist workers paradise is to be able to leave at the drop of a hat.”

Make Alberta Great Again!!

#40 DaveDorf on 07.03.17 at 7:34 pm

I don’t think these reputable news agencies are smarter than my brother in law. BIL > BIS

#41 dups on 07.03.17 at 7:38 pm

@ #32 Shawn

Totally agree, Garth, what makes it any different this time? US market fundamentals are stronger than ever, why would CAD raise even if the BOC raises rates? Canadian market fundamentals are not as strong as it should be. I am not convinced that the CAD dollar rally would last one bit.

#42 Mark on 07.03.17 at 7:38 pm

“Japan has experienced real deflation since 1990 yet JPY has not appreciated against USD or other major currencies.”

Japan really hasn’t had a stand-out cyclical sector though since the early 1990s. The Internet boom, for instance, mostly excluded Japanese companies. Meanwhile, in the post-1990 peak era, the Japanese Yen has swing between 150 and 80 Yen per USD$.

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency

So if you toss in the very significant negative correlation between long-term US treasury bonds, and the precious metals sector, for example (a dynamic which does not exist in the USD-JPY relationship), the magnitude of the swings over the long term could very well be larger. In light of such, the scenario of inversion, ie: the 63 cent dollar in the early 2000s (commodities and precious metals depression, US tech sector in a giant bubble), eventually inverting to a $1.5 USD/CAD$ (precious metals bubble, US tech and FIRE sector depression) seems plausible.

Of course, a $1.5 USD$/CAD$ probably wouldn’t be that long-lived, but 1998-2011 for the Japanese Yen versus USD$ does show that even in deflationary economies, the swings can be quite large. Japan is much closer to the end of their deflation than the beginning, of course.

#43 YULDave on 07.03.17 at 7:39 pm

I am saddened when I read everyone’s comments cheering on a housing crash. I agree it ridiculous that there has been such a run up in prices and feel those who bought in overheated markets recently should’ve done more homework before buying – but it is shameful to wish ill upon them. A housing crash will cause a lot of problems for a lot of families. Just my 2 cents.

#44 Meh on 07.03.17 at 7:47 pm

Meh

So there are seven prosperous countries w higher debt to GDP?
Room for even more debt then?
Just adjust the central bank rate a little more down.

#45 TWO FINGERS WATSON on 07.03.17 at 7:53 pm

#28 Mark
. Evidence of foreign participation in Canada’s RE marketplace is slim to non-existent.
……………………………………
Whatever u are smoking I want some. Was that indica or sativa ?

#46 Pre-retiree on 07.03.17 at 7:54 pm

But GTA is not Canada. Other markets like Ottawa seem to be doing much better if one is to believe the statistics. Does anyone out there has some insight?

#47 Ace Goodheart on 07.03.17 at 7:59 pm

What is the point of this? Real estate is cyclical. So What?

The Canadian market has already crashed. To crash more we would have to return to the 10% interest rates of the 90s, which we’re not going to do because that would bankrupt a number of our Provinces.

What likely will happen is It’ll be slightly easier to but a house in the 416 the 905 will plop somewhat and anyone who bought a semi in Oshawa for 900k will be viewed as a total moron for decades to come.

We have a problem with government debt. The bank of Canada rate cannot be 10% without us needing to default.

Be aware of this because it means something.

#48 crossbordershopper on 07.03.17 at 8:00 pm

i hope all my Canadian friends get a feel for their country like the neighbours to the south.
this year was different, the 150 i could actually see, i am sure we will be back to normal next year.
In the USA, the 4th rocks, everywhere and anywhere, parades, picnics, food, fireworks, flags, truely proud to be American.
Canada is a great country too, but its not America. You want to make money, its in the USA, where your credentials will be respected, hard work rewarded, taxed less, better weather, and the banks give a loan out to buy something other than real estate. People are friendlier i find, i find it easier to make money(canadians are very smart, too smart to sell them stuff) i find them asking a lot of questions and not buying much.
sooo. i love the American food, the variety the selection etc. lower gas prices, lower real estate prices. i can go on, but its important for everyone to know that Canada is a great place to live, but to tuely fullfill your destiny and your childrens future, simply drive south, the world is better there, and if it for whatever reason doesnt work for you down there, come back here. They will gladly accept you back. That is why many of the new immigrants to Canada i speak with still have a foot back in India and Iran etc. Its not like years ago, when you kissed your mother from Dublin goodbye and got on the boat, you werent coming back. Now, 12 hour plane ride and your around the world. much easier to have your cake and eat it too.
God Bless America

#49 paul on 07.03.17 at 8:04 pm

#43 YULDave on 07.03.17 at 7:39 pm
I am saddened when I read everyone’s comments cheering on a housing crash. I agree it ridiculous that there has been such a run up in prices and feel those who bought in overheated markets recently should’ve done more homework before buying – but it is shameful to wish ill upon them. A housing crash will cause a lot of problems for a lot of families. Just my 2 cents.
—————————————————————– A lot of the posters cheering on a housing crash don’t get it, till it happens and drags a bunch of them down with it. Always be careful of what you wish for.

#50 Let It Burn on 07.03.17 at 8:12 pm

Let the GTA Real Estate market burn to the ground. #43 it’s not about wishing others ill, it’s about the truth. People are living large on money they don’t have, it’s all fraud, smoke and mirrors, pretending to be something they are not. People need a reality check, and I for one think it is just the right medicine for our consumerism – buy whatever the heck you want, whenever you want and to heck with the consequences. Debt snorters have made their bed, now they will need to lie in it. Discipline is your friend a lesson many NEED to learn. Sometimes the best lessons are the most painful.

#51 Imagine on 07.03.17 at 8:13 pm

Imagine Poloz cuts rates on the 12th hahaha

It’s not going to happen but I’d die laughing

#52 Imagine on 07.03.17 at 8:14 pm

#43
I will laugh maniacally as people who have zero discipline or possibly zero intelligence or were just gullible get rocked hard by higher rates.

#53 I'm Still In Love With: Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.03.17 at 8:14 pm

Are you single?

#54 dEBT kILLs on 07.03.17 at 8:20 pm

Wow, if rates do go up, those around me with million dollar mortgages and floating rates may be in for a bit of a wake up call. I can’t even imagine owing someone a million dollars. How do people sleep at night? Heard a story from my adult child who works at a very high end clothing store. Guy walks in wants luxuary this, luxuary that, goes to pay, card declined. The guy says, can’t be, try again, – they try again, nope declined. Guys all angry says he’ll be back with cash – guess what. . .guy never returns, probably cause he has NO cash and obviously no credit anymore either.

#55 For those about to flop... on 07.03.17 at 8:22 pm

I was going to take a photo to show you guys the view off the back balcony of the house I am working on,but then I realized I am only a few a half a block away from this one and the view is identical.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4006-w-34th-avenue

In the morning before it gets to hazy ,I can see Don on Vancouver Island hanging his Tighty Whiteys on the clothesline,Andrew Woburn scan his front yard while picking up his newspaper in his slippers and dressing gown and Metaxa getting his fishing rods ready to try and land a catch in the stream that runs through his property…

I betcha Woburn is like Trump and denies he owns a dressing gown…

M43BC

#56 Asterix1 on 07.03.17 at 8:23 pm

Go housing crash! Let this house of cards crumble to the ground. The real fun will start when people start to sell out of fear/panic. Buying opportunities will be plentiful, lots of cash saved up for this day.

PS: I feel saddened by my comment! It is shameful, I am a terrible person. I will whip myself 100 times. I might then feel remorse for those massively indebted property owners who should have never been given any keys in the first place.

#57 John in Mtl on 07.03.17 at 8:27 pm

@#42 Mark on 07.03.17 at 7:38 pm:
Japan is much closer to the end of their deflation than the beginning, of course.

Japan not going anywhere until it re-examines immigration policy and their societys’ “configuration”, IMHO. Bigger problems to solve first.

#58 april on 07.03.17 at 8:31 pm

#26 – and who are you?

#59 For those about to flop... on 07.03.17 at 8:34 pm

For those about to flop… on 07.01.17 at 11:09 am
99 Scoops 17 at 1:19 am
Hey Flop, I am not a realtor but have access to the real time info you want. I can help, let me know if you want it.
////////////////////////////////

Hey Tommy Two Scoops,I don’t recall seeing your handle before ,but Im gonna take you up on your offer if you don’t mind.

You sound like the missing link I have been looking for maybe you are my Canada Day present.

Anyway,I have lots of cases but I will just ease you into it with these three that apparently went in the last little while.

I have no clue whether they lost money,made money or broke even,that’s what we’re gonna find out…

M43BC

4249 Hudson st. Vancouver paid 6.2 asking 6.88

4765 Pilot Rd West Vancouver 5m.paid asking 5.295

96 6300 Birch Street, Richmond paid 1.03 asking 1.08

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

What happened to Tommy Two Scoops?

They offered to help me and then disappeared.

Maybe the real estate cartel got them.

I’m going out like Al Pacino…

M43BC

#60 #33 Mark - I Half Agree on 07.03.17 at 8:36 pm

Paper wealth is like a fall back position financially for most people. When that wealth is eroded substantially, people feel “less wealthy” and that affects their willingness to spend large and/or more. In that, I agree.

I also believe that not until people are forced to cut cash spending due to rising interest rates will their financial situation really hit home.

Paper wealth is one thing, but when you see your bank account shrinking, that is quite another issue that directly affects living and lifestyle. Unless of course, paper wealth is how Canadians have been financing their spending.

I hope for a slow unwinding of the RE sector; if not, we may well experience what the Americans did and we know what it did to their economy.

#61 young & foolish on 07.03.17 at 8:40 pm

To rent a reasonable 2 bedroom in Toronto you need a minimum of $2000 per month, or $24,000 annually. So, a portfolio spewing dividend income at a reasonable 3% would need to be close to $800,000 to satisfy the monthly obligation.

Very rich indeed ….

Actually a $400,000 portfolio giving 6% would pay the rent. But, hey, don’t you have a job? — Garth

#62 S.Bby on 07.03.17 at 8:45 pm

Not much of anything selling in my area of South Burnaby. Lots of new builds going on too; there are six new multi-million dollar houses under construction and no one to buy them.

#63 FCUFMA on 07.03.17 at 8:54 pm

#43 YULDave

Well said Dave. Life may get hard for some people but we should never wish them ill or cheer their hardship. Let’s not cast stones.

#64 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.03.17 at 8:57 pm

Japan not going anywhere until it re-examines immigration policy and their societys’ “configuration”, IMHO. Bigger problems to solve first.
———————————————————
Japan had better leave things alone and not follow the ‘Canadian way’ in any form if they want to retain their quality of life and their great society.

#65 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 07.03.17 at 9:05 pm

WHOLE NEW DIFFERENT KIND OF ROOT CANAL “PROCEDURE” AWAITETH

That is the sort of discomforting future recent purchasers of real estate will soon have as they wonder what has just hit them and how long it will last.

I’ll feel sorry for them. Especially since interest rates are about to rise, and rise, and rise.

But, on the other hand, these next months and many years will be a learning experience with possible positive outcomes! Oh happy days that lie in wait, maybe.

As these Millennials and dumb-assed Boomers are sizing up the painful and necessary financing rebalancing they must undertake of what’s left of their so-called assets, they may want this learning experience to include studies of basic economics.

The first one is: don’t buy something unless you can pay cash for it (your own cash).

If you have to go to the lenders for the loot, then don’t play.

Period.

Just do what your grandparents had to do: wait and wait and wait and work and save and save some more.

It’s called discipline. Then buy the damned thing. Or not.

An iPhone or some other piece of cheap plastic electronic crap that makes you think you’re on top of everything, so cool and with it, won’t alleviate you from the brutalities of economic reality.

That’s why we have left-wingisms that only screw up our economies even more. These people believe in fairy tales.

Just cut to the quick you all and get it together before someone else, your lenders do.

#66 Dee on 07.03.17 at 9:07 pm

I also believe that not until people are forced to cut cash spending due to rising interest rates will their financial situation really hit home.
Paper wealth is one thing, but when you see your bank account shrinking, that is quite another issue that directly affects living and lifestyle. Unless of course, paper wealth is how Canadians have been financing their spending.
I hope for a slow unwinding of the RE sector; if not, we may well experience what the Americans did and we know what it did to their economy.

——————

you’re wrong though because people in the lending business tell me that clients refinance all the time. What clients do is roll all their new debts into the heloc. They can only do that because their home has increased in value. All that has to happen is stagnant home prices (even though prices will). Problems exist from all angles.

#67 dr. talc on 07.03.17 at 9:25 pm

Morneau, torry, sousa and the scissor sister have done their best to kill the market in TO, but it wont work, vendors will take the house off the market and wait for Sept.
Ask an agent, whats a normal marketing time?
60-90 days is the answer, were going back to a normal market,. 15 offers, bullies, etc is abnormal, the politicos killed it obo the banks.
also, no one cares about specs and flippers, end users will ride it out just like many other have done in the past

#68 Super-D-CLL. on 07.03.17 at 9:27 pm

By chance I had the good fortune to run into a neighbour
who was 100% convinced that homes in our Richmond Hill neighbourhood would continue to escalate. He told me in twenty years time our houses would be worth $10,000’000 dollars plus. I thought he was nut’s.

I asked him seriously did he think interest rates would stay low that long. I asked him if he would accept $2,000,000 for his home and he wouldn’t answer me?

Then what was even more scary was when I up the make believe offer price to $5,000,000! He said he would need to ask his wife……Hahaha.

Realizing how delusional this fool was, and just how the greed was becoming infectious. I was thinking that this relestate bubble was to good to be true. I decided to list my own home up the street to see what I could get. So at the end of March and in just five days later I had a couple of Bully offers, I accepted an offer on April fools day for $1.6 plus. Secretly hoping it wasn’t going to be me that was the fool.

I’ve been a reader of Garth’s slant on relestate prior to listing my home. Unlocking $700,000 in tax free dollars is all the incouragement I needed to move on. No neighbourhood or home where taxes are riseing every year is worth holding that much equity in bricks and mortar.

Since I’ve closed my deal I have relocated one hour north of the GTA. I’ve purchasing an equivalent home on a substainial size property for just half the price I sold my own home for.

I’m now a Certified Lad of Leisure. As for “Greater Fools” my neighbourhood is certainly got its share. After my home sold there where neighbours speaking to me that I never meet before telling me they where going to list there homes at a higher price? Than I received.

Guess what, these same people can’t get offers and several are now lowering there expectations. Life’s hard when you make bad choices.

Life’s even harder when greed trumps common sense. And yes…..this Canada Day 150 is always going to be a special celebration in more ways that one. Cheers!

#69 Denial and Realtor Games in YVR on 07.03.17 at 9:35 pm

Somebody awhile ago posted a link to My Realty Check and I have been following it ever since.

June data came out and the overall list price drops to increases is 2:1. List price drop overall was inching its way from negative territory SINCE October 2016 to 0% but took a downward turn in June to about -1%.

Still a lot of DENIAL in YVR RE but there are a few RUNNING FOR THE TURNSTILES.

Here is an example of denial (maybe they renovated the place, still):

12580 64 Avenue, Surrey, BC, V3W 1W9
Assessed Value = $766,000, Bought: 07/Sep/2016 for $745,000

List Price History:

$825,000 2017-05-20
$1,125,000 2017-05-28
$1,049,000 2017-06-06
Overall Change= $ 224,000.00
Percent: 27.15

Then there is reality beginning to settle in:

7511 Greenlees Road, Richmond, BC, V7A 1T8
Assessed Value = $2,391,000, Bought: 20/Jun/2015 for $1,440,000

List Price History:

$2,498,000 2017-03-27
$1,988,000 2017-05-15
$1,680,000 2017-06-02
Overall Change= -$ 818,000.00
Percent: -32.75

And this one is running for the turnstiles at below purchase price:

4468 Blair Drive, Richmond, BC, V6X 4C1
Assessed Value = $1,195,000, Bought: 25/Jul/2016 for $1,150,000

List Price History:

$1,478,000 2017-04-23
$1,398,000 2017-04-24
$998,000 2017-05-25
Overall Change= -$ 480,000.00
Percent: -32.48
_____________________________________

Some still posting YVR RE OK, from the above it is hardly that – more like denial. Many more of the above at My Realty Check.

#70 Fish on 07.03.17 at 9:37 pm

Serious Sap

#71 Alex S on 07.03.17 at 9:51 pm

>#16 Winsty on 07.03.17 at 6:34 pm
Yes folks, it seems the party is over. Nothing selling in Etobicoke, lots of for sale signs, but no buyers.

Condos are still being sold. 1 bdr condo apartments are sold for $400k. Insane.

#72 bubu on 07.03.17 at 9:55 pm

I don’t know why you always mention Canada real estate bubble and not Vancouver and Toronto bubbles… As you saw AB is ok even with the oil going down to these levels… Actually Calgary is doing well and Edmonton just had record prices for SFH.

1% increase in one year will not change anything … maybe a slow down but nothing to really notice….

#73 Tony on 07.03.17 at 10:21 pm

Re: #30 south burnaby gardener on 07.03.17 at 7:08 pm

Buy a detached house in another province or country.

#74 Smoking Man on 07.03.17 at 10:25 pm

Deplorablism transending all western boarders except France, they are born communists. This is now a world wide movement. Get use to it.

Individualism vs special interest gangs of thieves eith trully stupid followers.

The UN and its metal agenda for a one world govt is in trouble. Rightfully so.

#75 Hiding On the Backstreets on 07.03.17 at 10:26 pm

A house for sale, similar to mine, a couple streets over, in Olde Stoney Creek (East Hamilton), owners just reduced asking by about 20 grand after a week on the market.
Another house one street over, sold April last year (asking around 375 I recall) now asking around 475. On sale a couple weeks now. It seems that Greater Fool may be very prescient indeed.
Hey, I know this ain’t T dot, and Hamilton seems to get ridiculous house prices for sales to Toronto buyers. What’s expensive in Hamilton is cheap by T.O. standards.

Anyone see how this plays out in GTA’s outlying areas? Does YYZ and YVR take the country down with ’em?

#76 Marcel on 07.03.17 at 10:26 pm

@YULDave theres an old quote “Men are not against you, they are merely for themselves.”

While a little schadenfreude is part of the equation, its trivial to the real reasons people cheer for a crash. They want what home owners have…and im not even referencing the insane appreciations. Im talking security, stability, a forced savings plan. Etc.

Some may think “A crash would be horrible! What if those people lost their homes, and had to move away from their families, and friends, find new work and start again. You’re a horrible person to wish that on others.”

Many of those that cheer for a crash are already living this reality.

#77 TDOTrenter on 07.03.17 at 10:29 pm

@#43 YULDave
———–
I been reading those “house crash happy” posts for a while now and like you I was initially taken back thinking these are just idiots but when I started reading more and more and seeing the sheeple in Toronto buying grossly overpriced, crappy houses they can’t afford, as if a million dollars were just numbers on a piece of paper while I am not able to get a decent house because of those idiots.
That greed we’ve seen in Toronto these past few years was disgusting and its about time people will stop that insane beaviour so reasonable, hard working people can buy a house for a decent price.

#78 Smoking Man on 07.03.17 at 10:29 pm

The pic up top. Defiantly a liberal dog. How about a Deplorable dog pic tomorrow.

#79 acdel on 07.03.17 at 10:32 pm

Ok Garth, after this blog that you have posted today I finally get the sense that you actually read and take heart of what many (including myself) have been saying for the past year; the response (if) will probably be negative but I do not care; for all of us that have been posting what Garth has written today; good on all of us; for the rest; for god sake listen and prepare.

#80 GFD on 07.03.17 at 10:39 pm

#72 bubu on 07.03.17 at 9:55 pm
. . . .not if you live within your means. But it will if you ATM your house with hope to refinance every 12 months at 30% y/y increase in valuation. I’m guessing HELOC will be retracted first. I’m anxious to see how banks will deal with forced sale once canadians are done eating drywall.

#81 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.03.17 at 10:48 pm

67 dr. talc

LoL. You are delusional. Keep wishing and hoping that flippers and speculators will hold on to cash flow negative properties in a falling market. A housing crash worse then 1990 is coming for the greater fools. I know some people who had 3, 5, 7 or more properties and ended up losing EVERYTHING including their own home in the early 1990s. You are in the denial stage of the housing crash. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#82 Russ on 07.03.17 at 10:59 pm

I sailed the South Sea in early 80s, traded a house & mortgage for a 32 sailboat with the advice given, “Grab a chance and you won’t be sorry for a might-have-been.”

There’s never been a better time to go.

Look below at the gadgetry comment, very cute.
——————————————-
——————————————-
“I’ve always wanted to sail to the South Seas, but I can’t afford it.”

What these men can’t afford is not to go. They are enmeshed in the cancerous discipline of “security.”
And in the worship of security we fling our lives beneath the wheels of routine — and before we know it our lives are gone.

What does a man need — really need? A few pounds of food each day, heat and shelter, six feet to lie down in — and some form of working activity that will yield a sense of accomplishment. That’s all — in the material sense, and we know it.

But we are brainwashed by our economic system until we end up in a tomb beneath a pyramid of time payments, mortgages, preposterous gadgetry, playthings that divert our attention from the sheer idiocy of the charade.

The years thunder by. The dreams of youth grow dim where they lie caked in dust on the shelves of patience. Before we know it, the tomb is sealed.

Where, then, lies the answer? In choice. Which shall it be: bankruptcy of purse or bankruptcy of life?…

Sterling Hayden- S.V. Wanderer – 1963

#83 bubu on 07.03.17 at 11:02 pm

@#80 GFD – the Canadian banks will not deal with forced sales…. they didn’t in AB when oil went down…. why would be different now… I thought that the unemployment, reduction on compensations / salaries and debt in AB will reduce the real estate by 20-25%… .guess what? even with the mortgage changes from CMHC in 2016 to qualify for 4.65% the real estate went up…. judge yourself….

#84 Miller Time on 07.03.17 at 11:06 pm

House sale closed on Friday. Didn’t have to move as we negotiated a lease back. Foreign buyer that was representing a trust. Had a last minute appraisal that thankfully didn’t tank the deal. Garth did a profile on me awhile back, using a fake name at my request. I couldn’t afford the maintenance anymore, and now it’s not my problem. The new buyer has already lost their 20% down payment. I turned a 70k down payment into more than $800k tax free in less than 8 years. Could have done it in the last 3 years. Putting the profit into a balanced portfolio knowing we’re in an everything bubble and the stock market is also at a peak.

Needless to say, I’m sleeping much better knowing I have no debt, lots of freedom, and multiple years of income available.

#85 Rich Young on 07.03.17 at 11:06 pm

LIKE I POSTED… stock market internals are starting to crack too. Look at all the auto stocks. I posted that I’m short TSLA and now short W at the open today. Companies with no income and no hope of income have been speculated higher to nose bleed levels just like housing. They will fall first and then legit shares of stocks will fall after margin calls force them lower. TIME TO CASH OUT YOUR PORTFOLIO and sit on your hands? Take a look at the DJIA … JUNE 19TH top … hit the same level today and reversed. DOUBLE TOP … stock market is cooked too.

#86 Ben Doone on 07.03.17 at 11:14 pm

Delusional in Milton on 07.03.17 at 6:37 pm
I don’t think the people in Milton got the memo: No one wants to buy your crappy chip board homes anymore. Wake up and smell the smoke, your equity is burning up! Ha ha, can’t stand you losers!
——————————————————————

Delusional is when you pay 750-800k for a townhome across from the proposed CN rail yard.
Or losers who paid over 600k for a 2bd room show box.
Now this happens.

https://www.zolo.ca/milton-real-estate/823-fowles-court

#87 meslippery on 07.03.17 at 11:25 pm

If we could only increase interest rates things would be good… Good for who? is my question.

#88 Smoking Man on 07.03.17 at 11:29 pm

Hollywood put Trump in the cross hairs.

Trump made the people that buy movie tickets his number 1 priority. The unshooled are hurting badly. But let’s save Africa before vets.

Hollywood actors in their mansions line up to be the next big shot to toss a chunck of shit on the face of a man who’s followers gave the hollywood monkeys the big real estate and private jets. Be careful just im saying.

Virtue signaling to yourselves is only going to hurt your bottom line Hollywood.

The downtroughten now have a hero, and there is lots of them.

Now thats disruption millineal bitches.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#89 Eco Capitalist on 07.03.17 at 11:46 pm

It is the strangest feeling, reading about the (potential) coming storm and not being the least bit worried. Having found this blog years ago, I am in a place of financial safety. I know so many who live pay cheque to pay cheque; this storm shall stress them or carry them away. Shouldn’t I feel something? Pity? Empathy? Yet all I want to do is shake my head and mutter “idiots” under my breath…

#90 Smoking Man on 07.03.17 at 11:50 pm

Turning little boys into girls at Ontario schools. Only way to get em to bend over for an unelected one world govt.

But as the ying yang battle rages. The wall street hetoro sexsual defiant girl statue on wall street will be called apone to save the world.

Do the heavy lifting when your brother is bullied into playing with dols by their teachers.

I dont have a problem with it. Go deplorable girls.

The world depends on you to save humanity and sananity now that your brother has been totalled

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#91 Notagreaterfool on 07.03.17 at 11:57 pm

Is it true, the realtor cartel stats include FSBO where as last year they did not? If so, year over year sales are actually worse than published.

#92 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.03.17 at 11:58 pm

What does a man need — really need? A few pounds of food each day, heat and shelter, six feet to lie down in — and some form of working activity that will yield a sense of accomplishment. That’s all — in the material sense, and we know it.
———————————————————-
That’s right. Men only strive to earn enough for the other things to make a wife happy. With the MGTOW movement (a response to feminism) men are not needing the jobs that they once did. Men can get by on much less and live much happier lives. Leave the ‘corporate jobs’ to the ‘womyn’. Let them endure the years of ‘fun’ and ‘fulfillment’ a job in a cubicle has to offer.

#93 Blobby on 07.04.17 at 12:13 am

Today I got really concerned and scared about this countries economic future. The reason? I read a story on CBC about poloz considering raising the rates.. and then read the absolutely clueless comments under it!

And how highly rated some of those clueless posts were! Everything from rates going higher being the “liberals fault”, to poloz being a left winger, to just complete non understanding as to how rates work!

It was totally scary stuff.. there are some sensible comments in there trying to explain things to people, but they just get negged to oblivion…

.. and it was at that point I realized just how screwed we are!

#94 acdel on 07.04.17 at 12:19 am

#90 Smoking Man

As many times in the past history; the pendulum has swung too far! This time I think that it has gone to a point of no return, this is the new future.
Wow, I am sad for the future generation, not because some things needed to change but how fast, and how irresponsible, senseless, and how the fear-mongering b.s. based on all out lies since 911 and 2008 on-wards won, deep down we all know where this is heading and no I am not a conspiracy follower just a realist, so do what you can to prepare, get out of debt, for those who are not, then you have a bright future!

#95 Shemale on 07.04.17 at 12:37 am

@ 28 Mark

“Evidence of foreign participation in Canada’s RE marketplace is slim to non-existent.”

————————-

You are hilarious! That is the best punchline I’ve read all month! Good luck with that buddy!

#96 Stock Picker on 07.04.17 at 1:00 am

Personal debt is rampant, average car lease term is now 76 months!

Ask China about foreign money in Canadian real estate. They say half their most wanted criminals are in Canada. But…..you won’t hear that from the CBC.

Trudeau fears upsetting any voting bloc and is dead set against raising rates. Poloz won’t move. The sudden global coordination signals a correction not a head of steam. They want to increase rates in order to lower them.

#97 People areStrange on 07.04.17 at 1:04 am

I’m embarrassed. Us holier than thow Canadians can’t fall into the trap those wretched Americans did in ’08. Because we’re special. Uuhhnh, no. We’re actually worse because we think we’re special. We’re a bunch of morons with a chip on our shoulders. We’re screwed!

#98 ulsterman on 07.04.17 at 1:26 am

YUL Dave :”I am saddened when I read everyone’s comments cheering on a housing crash. I agree it ridiculous that there has been such a run up in prices and feel those who bought in overheated markets recently should’ve done more homework before buying – but it is shameful to wish ill upon them. A housing crash will cause a lot of problems for a lot of families.”

YUL Dave i witnessed the 50-70% crash in housing prices in Northern Ireland that started around 2007. However, the world didn’t end. People just hunkered down and kept paying their mortgages even though they were underwater. They still needed a place to live. They just stopped bragging about how much equity they’d made etc etc. No one talks about their underwater mortgages. HOWEVER, it was a godsend for the next generation who once again were able to buy home…to live in.

#99 I hear you #66 Dee on 07.04.17 at 1:44 am

HELOC’s are $220 MM vs. $1.34 T in mortgage debt and as you say, being used to extinguish higher rate debt like credit cards and Lord knows what else.

HELOCs are demand loans, risky since the bank can demand all or a portion be paid and raise rates unilaterally. Agreed, this is bad and refinancing merely “kicks the can down the road” but eventually, the debt has to be repaid as the American article above reminds us [and that was their undoing].

All I hope for is that the rate increases are small and spread over time giving people time to adjust and that the RE markets will unwind slowly; otherwise, a lot of people will be hurt financially and the rest of Canada will suffer for it.

Then again, my last paragraph is the proverbial “double snake eyes” wish list.

We’ll find out soon enough [4th Qtr I think] if all these “doomer” reports are indeed true about how Canadians are X% or a few $ away from financial oblivion.

Doomer sensationalism reports or the truth?

#100 Newcomer on 07.04.17 at 1:50 am

#72 bubu on 07.03.17 at 9:55 pm
I don’t know why you always mention Canada real estate bubble and not Vancouver and Toronto bubbles… As you saw AB is ok even with the oil going down to these levels… Actually Calgary is doing well and Edmonton just had record prices for SFH.
—————–

You seem to be arguing that AB is not in a bubble because the prices are high there but that’s what a bubble is, unduly high prices. If prices were low in AB, you might have the makings of an argument.

#101 Fake News on 07.04.17 at 2:05 am

#84 Miller Time on 07.03.17 at 11:06 pm
House sale closed on Friday. Didn’t have to move as we negotiated a lease back. Foreign buyer that was representing a trust. Had a last minute appraisal that thankfully didn’t tank the deal. Garth did a profile on me awhile back, using a fake name at my request. I couldn’t afford the maintenance anymore, and now it’s not my problem. The new buyer has already lost their 20% down payment. I turned a 70k down payment into more than $800k tax free in less than 8 years. Could have done it in the last 3 years. Putting the profit into a balanced portfolio knowing we’re in an everything bubble and the stock market is also at a peak.

Needless to say, I’m sleeping much better knowing I have no debt, lots of freedom, and multiple years of income available.

_________________________________

So much for the 15% Chinese dudes tax…..

#102 ColintheColin on 07.04.17 at 2:21 am

Hey Flop,

Happened to have the page open when I read your post. Here’s the info:

4249 Hudson – still on the market for 6.88. Bought for 6.2 in May 2016, listed for sale for 6.98 two months later, dropped price to 6.68 three months later, raised price to 6.88 two months later and now still on market

4765 Pilot – listed 5.99 Sept. 2016, dropped to 5.29 Nov. 2016, sold last month for 4.4

96 6300 Birch – listed march for 1.25, dropped start of may to 1.19, dropped mid may to 1.08, raised late may to 1.168, sold june for 1.150

#103 dosouth on 07.04.17 at 2:44 am

Of course you can find news boasting ups and down anywhere you look for both sides. You cannot fix stupid when it comes to being “so right.”

The best educator is experience and good advice. It doesn’t help when you lose your life’s savings or your pension or your available cash to any poor investment. then again you can’t _________

#104 Tony on 07.04.17 at 3:31 am

Re: #85 Rich Young on 07.03.17 at 11:06 pm

They’re going to rotate from the utilities and technology stocks into the financials this month.

#105 Dan.t on 07.04.17 at 3:49 am

“I’M NOT POLOZ” haha, not sure if it’s the wine right now but for some reason I love your posts- sometimes a bit repetitive but kind of funny….

As to the real estate market, after been overseas and talking to Canadians now in Canada, I’ve realized there really is nothing else to talk about in Canada other than Canadian real estate… actually unbelievable! Everyone I’ve met – long time no see – within 5 min the conversation turns to real estate.

Maybe based solely on the fact that Canadians can only talk about real estate, that alone will keep the market going! Nothing will surprise me anymore here. To the moon, it’s going to the moon forever! [email protected]* fundamentals! It’s real estate! Whatever. I give up.

#106 Johnny D on 07.04.17 at 3:52 am

When day turns to dusk in the land of ice and snow, the house that fools built shall fall.”
– Winston Churchill
—————————————————-
Totally not a real quote. Hopefully nobody wasted their time looking for it. Seems that Churchill says everything. But seriously, wouldn’t it be creepy if things really took a turn for the ugly right after that eclipse next month? Happy August 21st eclipse everyone!

#107 jane24 on 07.04.17 at 5:18 am

Me thinks that the proof of the pudding is that the RE agents (I refuse to trademark the English language
word realtor) have disappeared from these blog comments. They were still fighting that the market was just taking a breather or showing seasonal slow-down right up to last week. Now they have mostly died. Only a few old hands left commenting. Sad.

#108 KLNR on 07.04.17 at 5:33 am

Pretty easy to cherry pick from those doomer sites. Not that I disagree with some of what they’re saying.

#109 More Trumpnanigans on 07.04.17 at 7:12 am

“Trump’s alarming environmental rollback: what’s been scrapped so far! Since January, the White House, Congress and EPA have engineered a dizzying reversal of regulations designed to protect the environment and public health.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/04/trump-emvironmental-rollback-epa-scrap-regulations

#110 maxx on 07.04.17 at 7:48 am

#10 Sugarlips on 07.03.17 at 6:26 pm

“……The boom was regional on the way up so…?”

The boom was completely across the board – T.O. and Raincouver went parabolic.

Wait to buy. You will come out of it handsomely. A few fools will buy too early and apply a bit of braking effect, but the slide is inexorable.

If you’re looking to sell, you have my sympathies.

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.04.17 at 8:23 am

@#59 Flopster
“I’m going out like Al Pacino”
++++++

“Say hello to my leetle fren….”

As the Realtors sneak up behind you with murderous intent…..

#112 TurnerNation on 07.04.17 at 8:29 am

#85 RY, #104 Tony

I did notice some moves into the ‘boring’ (defensive?) ETFs like Steel SLX.US, Retail XRT.US and softs: Coffee, Cocoa and Sugar ETFs in the US.
They flashy semiconductors – SMH.US – got killed.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.04.17 at 8:29 am

@#72 booboo
“As you saw AB is ok even with the oil going down to these levels… Actually Calgary is doing well and Edmonton just had record prices for SFH….”

According to whom?
Realtors and their stats?
Or the media lapdogs that live off of real estate advertising?

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.04.17 at 8:37 am

@#82 Russ

Sterling Hayden.

Author, athlete, expert sailor, WW2 spy and war hero, reluctant Hollywood actor, a true Renaissance man…….

I’m at a loss as to why no one in Hollywood hasnt made a movie about his amazing life….

#115 torontorocks on 07.04.17 at 8:51 am

someone once posted in the comments section about a hypothetical house-horny couple – he sharpens coloured pencils, she collects butterflies – budget, $1.8MM. Yesterday I walked through what I believe to be ground zero of this. Trinity Bellwoods. The areas around Dundas/Shaw/Crawford/Kensington Market and, by extension, College/Ossington, etc – I have no idea wtf these fixed-gear riding pot fiends do for a living to be able to want to trade house to house and eat free range avocado toast or whatever. I do know that if you’re in the 30-40 year old range, you’ve never seen anything but growth in markets and assets, so its a party that never ends. And I don’t begrudge anyone from taking that risk, naively and coming out looking like a financial wizard. However this unwinds is to be seen. And I know that most of these flakes can’t do math so they likely don’t understand what 30 dollars a week in less cash flow when you’re living off the loaned equity in your house can mean.

#116 Srsly Lahdeedah on 07.04.17 at 9:05 am

How many people are betting that people are going to scramble to buy a house in Aug/Sept before rates go up (again) in Oct and 2018? Try to lock in before rates increase?

Whaddaya think, guys???

#117 dups on 07.04.17 at 9:23 am

16 Tech Companies had wrong stock pricing reported. This could have been the trigger to the recent tech sell out… Up they go again with the USD too!

http://www.businessinsider.com/google-share-prices-reported-down-80-2017-7

#118 IHCTD9 on 07.04.17 at 9:31 am

Decided to skip out to Timmies for a late coffee last night at about 10:00 PM. Drove under the 401 and noticed westbound was bumper to bumper going about 30-40 km/hr.

Got to Timmies, and it was wall to wall Indian folks. Jammed in there like sardines. 20-30+ of them hanging around in the parking lot. The local Indian population is about .0001% so these were GTA folks 99.9999%

This is only the second time in my life that GTA traffic has affected me 1.5 hrs East of Toronto. Just for fun, I hopped on the 401 for a short jaunt on the way back. Oh yeah, 20-30 km/hr. These poor suckers were in for a long, LONG, ride back home. it was near 10:30 as I pulled off. They could have been another 6 hours getting back at that speed.

I thought last Labour Day was a fluke, but it looks like I am going to see more of this. GTA traffic slowing things down to a crawl over 170 km from the city.

Great…

#119 maxx on 07.04.17 at 9:40 am

#15 Sorry – no crash! on 07.03.17 at 6:32 pm

You can “lol” your little head off as much as you want, but this scenario is no longer sustainable and foreign investors aren’t idiots – there is life outside of Canada…..it is not the only country with social stability and certainly not the best in terms of taxation and climate.

Malinvest much?

#120 Eks dee Sipal on 07.04.17 at 9:47 am

“Seventy-five per cent. Hmm. That would erase $1.2 million from the value of the average detached house in Toronto or Vancouver. It is, of course, an extreme view. But then, what isn’t extreme lately?” – Garth

So you believe an analyst at Stockhouse over me? I’ve been telling you this for years. How do you know I’m not that analyst at Stockhouse? Ha ha.

Two months ago, I was speaking with a guy who bought in Milton 5 years ago when, as he said “prices were cheap”. He now owns two more houses in Milton. Says he of housing valuation in Milton now, “You can’t touch it”. I advised him to think about selling and cashing in his chips and retiring. His response: “Maybe in 5-10 years”. Oh well, too bad, so sad. As Happy Housing Crash says of Milton: they didn’t get the memo yet.

#121 Where's Yogi? on 07.04.17 at 9:58 am

#72 bubu on 07.03.17 at 9:55 pm
#80 GFD on 07.03.17 at 10:39 pm
#100 Newcomer on 07.04.17 at 1:50 am
#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.04.17 at 8:29 am

I thought I’d rush to bubu’s defense.

In 2014 the median household income was $101,470 in Edmonton ($75,270 in Toronto).

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil107a-eng.htm

In May 2017 the average house price in Edmonton was $379,018 in Edmonton ($863,910 in Toronto).

http://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/national-average-price-map/

Leaving sports teams and amenities aside, the only downsides (that I can see) are the unemployment rate and the weather.

In May 2017 the unemployment rate in Edmonton was 8.3% (Toronto was 6.9%).

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/lfss04k-eng.htm

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/lfss04f-eng.htm

The average January temperature is 8.6 celsius degrees colder in Edmonton than in Toronto.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/phys08b-eng.htm

“Hey Boo Boo, let’s go get us a pic-a-nic basket.”

#122 IHCTD9 on 07.04.17 at 10:02 am

went up…. judge yourself…. #84 Miller Time on 07.03.17 at 11:06 pm House sale closed on Friday. Didn’t have to move as we negotiated a lease back. Foreign buyer that was representing a trust. Had a last minute appraisal that thankfully didn’t tank the deal. Garth did a profile on me awhile back, using a fake name at my request. I couldn’t afford the maintenance anymore, and now it’s not my problem. The new buyer has already lost their 20% down payment. I turned a 70k down payment into more than $800k tax free in less than 8 years. Could have done it in the last 3 years. Putting the profit into a balanced portfolio knowing we’re in an everything bubble and the stock market is also at a peak. Needless to say, I’m sleeping much better knowing I have no debt, lots of freedom, and multiple years of income available.
________________________________

Excellent, and congrats!

Things continue to worsen for recent GTA buyers. I may even hang my hat on the idea of a new age dawning on Toronto Real estate by the end of this week.

Meanwhile, let that Chinese trust fund foot the maintenance, and if the house ends up depreciating like a used Benz – they can foot that too.

#123 For those about to flop... on 07.04.17 at 10:14 am

Colin 2:21 am
Hey Flop,

Happened to have the page open when I read your post. Here’s the info:

4249 Hudson – still on the market for 6.88. Bought for 6.2 in May 2016, listed for sale for 6.98 two months later, dropped price to 6.68 three months later, raised price to 6.88 two months later and now still on market

4765 Pilot – listed 5.99 Sept. 2016, dropped to 5.29 Nov. 2016, sold last month for 4.4

96 6300 Birch – listed march for 1.25, dropped start of may to 1.19, dropped mid may to 1.08, raised late may to 1.168, sold june for 1.150

//////////////////////////////
Sold on May 22
4765 Pilot Rd West Vancouver 5m.paid asking 5.295
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOTFTRA==

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/4765-pilot-house-road

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Hey Colin,thanks.
I gotta run out the door to work but the main one that everyone should know a is the one at Pilot.

The result if your numbers hold…

Purchased for 5 million

Sold for 4.4 million

That is by far the biggest hit I have seen so far …600k plus expenses.

I’m sure one of my blog buddies that like to sharpen my numbers could get into opportunity cost and all that as well as the numbers are significant enough.

Cuts like a knife…

M43BC

#124 Alberta Ed on 07.04.17 at 10:24 am

For Sale signs are sprouting like dandelions in Cochrane since spring, but they’re lasting a lot longer. Having watched new builds go up, and talking to a number of tradesmen, new homes and condos are 40-60% overpriced IMHO. The game is to build them as fast as possible to minimum standards, then get out and leave the new owner with the inevitable problems.

#125 maxx on 07.04.17 at 10:33 am

#20 Catalyst on 07.03.17 at 6:44 pm

“Lets get some updated ratios shall we.

……Secondly, the debt to disposable income often quoted in the 165% range as a scare tactic. Most debt is mortgage debt and not due to repaid often for 20 to 30 years.”

So what? Debt is debt and if it takes a g.f. 30 years to pay off an overpriced shack, we’re looking at up to 6 full renewal terms.

Lotsa room for stable payment amounts on a declining mortgage balance……………lotsa moola for bankers.

#126 DW on 07.04.17 at 10:36 am

The number of listings appear to be downward trending (seems normal due to seasonality).

Wanted to see if others have observed the same: On my drive to work, I see for sale signs for properties but they are no longer listed on MLS. I am confident they are not sold either as I check daily.

I am wondering if these properties are taken off the market in order to retry in September/October where it’s typically the 2nd “hot” period in the year?

#127 Another Deckchair on 07.04.17 at 11:02 am

@118 IHCTD9

“I thought last Labour Day was a fluke, but it looks like I am going to see more of this. GTA traffic slowing things down to a crawl over 170 km from the city. ”

Traffic is a real problem everywhere, and going to get worse.

“around here” single family homes are getting demolished for large, high condo units.

Roads are designed for a residential traffic level, but you have maybe 15 x the traffic from the same square metres, AND, there is nothing to do except leave the condo and drive somewhere. (no backyards, no kids playing street hockey, etc)

Was walking around on the weekend thinking “Venice – no cars. People talking to each other. Gotta move to Venice…” ;-)

#128 Asterix1 on 07.04.17 at 11:14 am

#116 Srsly Lahdeedah: “How many people are betting that people are going to scramble to buy a house in Aug/Sept before rates go up (again) in Oct and 2018? Try to lock in before rates increase?

Whaddaya think, guys???”

____________________________________________

Why would people scramble to buy a house before an interest rate hike? Prices will be going down substantially as more rates are added to the equation.

Rather get an extra 40%-60% saving on a property, than lock myself in way too soon for a few points.

I can definitely see many “greater fools” thinking the opposite and buying before the hikes.

#129 Bob on 07.04.17 at 11:34 am

Despite all that… house price will just continue going up. This is our religion

#130 TnT on 07.04.17 at 11:48 am

#90 Smoking Man on 07.03.17 at 11:50 pm

Once again missing the big picture.

For years girls were told they can do anything / be anyone from dancer to president. Play hockey or skip rope. This was needed and the results are higher participation n Education, workforce with higher positions in our society.

On the flip side….

Guys like Smoking Man want tough, knuckle head boys.

End results, boys never explore / develop their creativity side.

Arts for boys are – “gay”

Boys who read – “gay”

Dance for boys – “gay”

Boys who are not good in sports – “must be gay”

Boys are given a pass in every culture. They do not need to read / write, participate in art.
They pick up a doll and they are laughed at.
How else do you expect a loving nurturing father if you are laughed at as a boy pushing a doll stroller.

Very old way of thinking SM…

Typical from Scrubs like you.

#131 Bob dog on 07.04.17 at 12:13 pm

It’s just a gully that’s all. Just nerves.

– The Big Short

Seriously.. How do I short the housing market?

#132 Fake News on 07.04.17 at 12:19 pm

#109 More Trumpnanigans on 07.04.17 at 7:12 am
“Trump’s alarming environmental rollback: what’s been scrapped so far! Since January, the White House, Congress and EPA have engineered a dizzying reversal of regulations designed to protect the environment and public health.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/04/trump-emvironmental-rollback-epa-scrap-regulations

_____________________________________

Environmental protection? Fining a farmer 30,000 dollars a day for digging a hole in the ground to water his cows? Give me break.

Govt around the world is “out of control”. Pensions are failing globally, freedoms are being destroyed and you will see Govt front and centre in the next financial crisis.

Just watch…..

#133 TWO FINGERS WATSON on 07.04.17 at 12:21 pm

The Ploz says that Canadians have a ” buffer ” in their finances to protect them from rising interest rates. There ya go folks, no problem, carry on.

#134 Chris on 07.04.17 at 12:36 pm

Flip Flops best worn in the summer.

#135 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 12:44 pm

Anyone catch Canada’s newest millionaire? Secret to success?

Sold house to greater fool? Nope.
Put money into diversified portfolio? Nope.
Inheritance? Nope.

Path: Join ISIS as child soldier. Kill a fellow human. Get tortured a bit while in jail. Come back to country who gave you citizenship expecting you to positively contribute. Sue the government. Win $10M.

Oh Canada!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/khadr-settlement-1.4189146

#136 Tony on 07.04.17 at 12:54 pm

Re: #113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.04.17 at 8:29 am

http://www.ovlix.com/ca/for-sale/Alberta/Edmonton?price=1

http://www.ovlix.com/ca/for-sale/Alberta/Calgary?price=1

#137 Tony on 07.04.17 at 1:01 pm

Re: #72 bubu on 07.03.17 at 9:55 pm

This one fell over 50 percent:

http://www.ovlix.com/ca/property/9mYvAHjG-10814-64-Av-Nw-Nw-Edmonton-AB-T6H1T2

#138 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 1:18 pm

@TnT re:#130

You should be the last one to talk about missing the big picture. If SM is extreme for not wanting a liberal agenda in our schooling system, then you are just as extreme making your assumptions about an entire group who doesn’t see the world in your view. What is the phrase liberals like to use on others?….”Painting a picture with broad strokes”.

#139 TurnerNation on 07.04.17 at 1:51 pm

GOOD LORD a million per side for an unrennovated
Slanty Semi in Leslieville.

Gross. Starve the Beast. No tortious interference here…morose on Morse St: one of em

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18337378/40-12-MORSE-Street-Toronto-Ontario-M4M2P6-South-Riverdale

#140 Xbox Economist on 07.04.17 at 1:52 pm

#43 YULDave

The comments perfectly reflect the emotions of fear and greed that control most people and their behaviour. Earlier this year people were on here complaining of how they listened to Garth’s advice and missed out on becoming rich. The fear was palpable. Now they’re here cheering on a real estate correction and claiming their love for the Happy House Crash guy. Their thoughts firmly on besting their colleagues, friends and family. But don’t worry, there is one thing that never changes and they will return to fear soon enough.

#141 IHCTD9 on 07.04.17 at 2:00 pm

#130 TnT on 07.04.17 at 11:48 am

How else do you expect a loving nurturing father if you are laughed at as a boy pushing a doll stroller.
____________________________

I had a Barbie doll when I was young. I would take her and engage in heated battles with my stuffed Curious George. My brothers would then try to outflank with Bugs Bunny and a nameless stuffed dog. The battle would rage until either the doll became dismembered, or stuffing was flying out of the other participants in the melee.

The Barbie was a great warrior as her arms and legs/head would just snap back on after hostilities had ceased. The stuffies however, were un-repairable, and slowly deflated over time like a balloon as they lost their innards.

Alas, the day came after much open warfare, that the doll’s extremities became lost. With no flying arms and legs, the novelty of the doll wore thin as she became an essentially indestructible torso. My Mother eventually gave what was left of her an honorable discharge (to the trash bin).

She was replaced with another Doll “Emily” that was a baby (the kind that closed its eyes when it was laid down). She quickly became known as “Emily the Skull Obliterator” as her head was massively large and heavy compared to the rest of her. As a weapon, she was effectively a Mace, and she swung her way to utter dominance with savage blunt force attacks – both to opposing stuffies, and also occasionally to my Brothers.

Emily ultimately proved to be just too menacing for her own good. No smack talk was good enough to produce willing combatants if Emily was swinging by my side. That 2 lb. rubber head brushing the floor was no laughing matter. They would take one look at that dangling pink noggin, and decline. She caused too much pain, created fear instead of pleasure, it wasn’t fun anymore. She had to go.

Looking back, maybe you’re right. My Dad never laughed at us boys playing with those dolls. Actually appeared to think everything was perfectly normal.

#142 A Reply to #131 Bob dog on 07.04.17 at 2:11 pm

“Seriously.. How do I short the housing market?”

Credit default swaps.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap

But just remember that they’re derivatives, and, as Warren Buffett once said, “Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction.”

#143 TnT on 07.04.17 at 2:20 pm

#138 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 1:18 pm

Whooosh! – right over your head…

No one said extreme.

Extreme is the problem

SJW & Alt Right are Tribes and they are both extreme.

Like finances there is a need for balance.

I have dozens of hours viewed on Jordan B Peterson lectures that SM like to puke up and they are miles apart.

Balance, be a man but not an animal.

SJW bad… i get it but Trump is the mirror image on the right.

Big Picture – balance…

#144 T on 07.04.17 at 2:25 pm

#45 TWO FINGERS WATSON on 07.03.17 at 7:53 pm

In this case Mark is entirely correct. Lay off the pot, pothead.

#145 jess on 07.04.17 at 2:29 pm

whitewashing

…”to whitewash records in the original tax haven, shift funds to safer territory under new names and structures, escape tax and protect privacy. It was based on a clear understanding that when confronted, a tax haven would have no obligation to reveal details of bank accounts and trusts that have been closed; especially, they cannot be forced to share information on transactions that were entered into before the date of signing of the information sharing pact.”

Jersey shares “old” information

Read more at:
http://www.taxjustice.net/2017/06/28/jersey-shares-old-records-trusts-foundations/

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/expiry-date-in-tax-havens-jersey-shares-old-records-of-trusts-foundations/articleshow/59313872.cms

#146 Mark on 07.04.17 at 2:38 pm

Anyone hear anything on BNN about the suggestion that the Trudeau government might cap TFSA’s at $100k?

A friend emailed and asked me about it this morning, but I haven’t heard anything to that effect anywhere else. A Google search is turning up nothing. I certainly don’t watch BNN either.

#147 Howard on 07.04.17 at 2:44 pm

#43 YULDave on 07.03.17 at 7:39 pm
I am saddened when I read everyone’s comments cheering on a housing crash. I agree it ridiculous that there has been such a run up in prices and feel those who bought in overheated markets recently should’ve done more homework before buying – but it is shameful to wish ill upon them. A housing crash will cause a lot of problems for a lot of families. Just my 2 cents.

———————————-

So I guess house prices should just go up forever because it will hurt some peoples’ feelings?

Where’s the sympathy for the prudent savers who have been massacred the past 8 years?

#148 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 2:45 pm

@TnT

Yes, way over my head. Just a dumb knuckle dragging man while you are the enlightened woman to save us all. Your “balanced” counter to any view not in line with your own blinds you making you actually think you are in the middle.

Case in point…

“Progressive Liberals, George Soros’s Open Society love humans. This is why Progressive Liberals force change for the betterment of Humans. All the decisions are based on making a better world for Humans.”

Anyone see what is wrong with the above statement?

Hint: Its the word “force”……change, if it is indeed truly good of everyone (and not just minorities) never needs to be “forced”.

The path to hell is lined with good intentions….with TnT championing how “balanced” things are.

#149 TnT on 07.04.17 at 2:47 pm

#141 IHCTD9 on 07.04.17 at 2:00 pm

Looking back, maybe you’re right. My Dad never laughed at us boys playing with those dolls. Actually appeared to think everything was perfectly normal.

First off… A+ for writing style, really captures the scene.

2nd… Dad’s response was and still is typical – “boys will be boys” attitude.

What our society is drifting towards is lack of empathy.

Not sure why.. social media anonymity part of the problem? for sure…

Empathy is a taught emotion that needs to be nurtured.

#150 A Reply to #132 Fake News on 07.04.17 at 3:01 pm

You didn’t read the article, did you? Maybe just have someone read it to you! :)

#151 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.04.17 at 3:14 pm

TWO FINGERS WATSON on 07.04.17 at 12:21 pm
The Ploz says that Canadians have a ” buffer ” in their finances to protect them from rising interest rates. There ya go folks, no problem, carry on.

I will say it again. They lied about low Iinflation as they lowered and kept interest rates artificially low for years. Now they will lie on the way UP as the elites are going to crash this thing so hard that a whole generation(millennials) will be financially scared forever. They will learn a painful financial lesson as they scream in financial pain like it was 1990. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-) Happy financial pain realtors and speculators! :-)

#152 Trumpcare on 07.04.17 at 3:15 pm

“Roughly one in five American voters approve of the health care plan the House of Representatives passed last Thursday, according to a new poll.
Overall, 21% of voters supported Republicans’ American Health Care Act while 56% opposed it, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll published Thursday. The disapproval was consistent across all demographic groups — including breakdown by race, gender, age, education level and party — except for Republicans, of whom 48% approved of the plan, compared to a 16% disapproval rate.”

http://time.com/4775979/ahca-health-care-republican-support-quinnipiac-poll/

#153 nubbers on 07.04.17 at 3:16 pm

Asterix1 @128

Why would people scramble to buy a house before an interest rate hike? Prices will be going down substantially as more rates are added to the equation.
Rather get an extra 40%-60% saving on a property, than lock myself in way too soon for a few points.
I can definitely see many “greater fools” thinking the opposite and buying before the hikes.

My OH would be one of those trying to get in quick before a rate hike, while she can ‘still qualify for the mortgage’.

She has a degree in accountancy. SFX: Slap of a facepalm

#154 TnT on 07.04.17 at 3:17 pm

#148 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 2:45 pm

Hint: Its the word “force”……change, if it is indeed truly good of everyone (and not just minorities) never needs to be “forced”.

Slow down tough guy….

Force is needed when the likes of you and your Tribe are in charge….

Civil Rights were and still are FORCED
Women’s Rights were and still are FORCED
Workers Rights were and still are FORCED

Progressive Liberals that make up Government has to FORCE change otherwise there would still be slavery, gender inequality and poor labor conditions.

So glad you Scrubs are a dying breed.

#155 jess on 07.04.17 at 3:20 pm

135 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 12:44 pm
what if that was YOU? What If someone was pulling your fingernails out….

http://epe.lac-bac.gc.ca/100/206/301/pco-bcp/commissions/internal_inquiry/2010-03-09/www.iacobucciinquiry.ca/pdfs/documents/final-report-copy-en.pdf

#156 Livin Large on 07.04.17 at 3:32 pm

“Hint: Its the word “force”……change, if it is indeed truly good of everyone (and not just minorities) never needs to be “forced”.”…you’re just being a simplistic”If it ain’t broke doan fix it” good ol’ boy for fun aren’t you?

No one really believes that “if it’s really good then it would be easy” shuck and jive sny more do they??? The bulk of the world really can’t be stuck that firmly in the 50s.

#157 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 3:50 pm

@152 Trumpcare

“Quinnipiac conducted the survey of 1,078 voters over the phone from May 4to 9”

Quinn..who?? 1,078 people over the phone now represents a country of 350 million? Curious, the p value for significance testing not mentioned? Hmmmm….

#158 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 3:55 pm

@Jess

What if it was me? Pulled fingernails….boohoo. What about getting you head cut off and having the video on the internet for your family and friends to see your last few minutes on earth? As TnT would say…”balance”!

#159 Correction of #152 Trumpcare on 07.04.17 at 4:00 pm

“A series of new polls show Americans strongly disapprove of Republican Obamacare replacement efforts.

“Senate Republicans delayed plans to vote on the proposal this week amid mounting opposition from members.”

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/28/senate-gop-health-care-bill-has-dismal-approval-rating-poll.html

#160 isuckless on 07.04.17 at 4:01 pm

TnT:”So glad you Scrubs are a dying breed.”
yes sir. There are 1 billion of western, civilized, indoctrinated people (hopefully way lees) and about 6 billion of old fashioned scrubs in this world.
Allow us in your country and we’ll see …

#161 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 4:06 pm

I’m not being simplistic on my views of forced change. You can’t compare the human rights movement which affected millions around the world with the majority of people agreeing upon to things that “feel” good saying it out loud with a good chunk of society not on board.

If you are so gung ho about women’s rights, what is your opinion on full body burkas?? Go ahead and force new Canadians to take them off as then enter the country. It’s the right thing to do isn’t????

#162 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 4:10 pm

@TnT

And if you are going to call someone a name like “scrub”, at least know the context of it. Chickenhead!

#163 InvestorsFriend on 07.04.17 at 4:17 pm

Government Force?

#154 TnT on 07.04.17 at 3:17 pm said:
Civil Rights were and still are FORCED
Women’s Rights were and still are FORCED
Workers Rights were and still are FORCED

Progressive Liberals that make up Government has to FORCE change otherwise there would still be slavery, gender inequality and poor labor conditions.

***************************************
This is absolutely true. Without government including the law and order components of government it would not safe to be on the streets. The strongest men would wantonly rape and steal and kill. It would be anarchy. Even the animal kingdom has leaders for packs of animals.

Society tries to have a reasonable amount of freedom. There is never total freedom.

Increases in government reach need to be debated but the general trend to more government and more rules will not stop as the world becomes more complex.

Next we may need a world government. Einstein suggested this was the solution to the nuclear arms race. North Korea may precipitate this.

The notion of any one country being totally sovereign over its affairs is out of date now. Seriously out of date.

#164 A Reply to #141 IHCTD9 on 07.04.17 at 4:17 pm

It’s a good thing that all the little girls in your neighbourhood didn’t invite you to their dollies’ tea parties. :)

#165 Smoking Man on 07.04.17 at 4:19 pm

#154 TnT on 07.04.17 at 3:17 pm

I admire your tenacity, but you are making generalizations based on what you see above water.
Ice Burg theory toots.

The only way the NWO can form a one world govt is to emasculate young men. Remove logic and make consensus sucking zombots who will never go against the flow.

All this trans talk of a tiny portion of the population has more to do with one world govt than the feelings of a few confused people.

Its not easy earning a PhD in Herdonomics, but I got one, so there.

#166 TnT on 07.04.17 at 4:19 pm

#160 isuckless on 07.04.17 at 4:01 pm

Allow us in your country and we’ll see …

Here’s a sample of what you see:

* Hockey Players wearing turbans
* Hockey Night in Canada broadcast in Punjabi
* Women out numbering men in Education
* An outstanding number of Restaurants with authentic cuisine from all over the world

Should not be scared of change.

Everyone who comes here becomes Canadian and adds to our values. Check any school yard to see how Canadian the new ones are.

If anything… “old stock” Canadians best sharpen their skills because new Canadians love education and hard work.

They thrive because they struggled to get here, be here and then climbing to the top is easy for them.

#167 IHCTD9 on 07.04.17 at 4:24 pm

#155 jess on 07.04.17 at 3:20 pm 135 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 12:44 pm what if that was YOU? What If someone was pulling your fingernails out…

_______________________________

Seriously though, if some American guy pulled out my fingernails in Cuba 15 years ago, just have Canadian taxpayers send me a Billion, and I’d forgive all in a microsecond.

Just send me the money, we don’t need to dwell on the past.

#168 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 4:30 pm

@#156 Livin Large

You mistake my use of “minorities” as possibly a racial term? I am referring to minority opinions. No one I know believes the 50s was better than now since so much progress has been made. My point is that, as a society, we are catering too much to whoever screams the loudest regardless of the actual size of the affected.
eg. Provincial government pandering to minority of people claiming foreigners are jacking housing prices even though we agree it is the locals who chose to participate in bidding wars.

Latest pandering may be changing the name of Ryerson university because apparently Ryerson was came up with educational system which is linked to abuses of first nation children.

Does anyone ask if it was Ryerson’s intention was to screw first nations children or was it a prevailing “good” idea at the time but failed miserably in its execution?

No matter, if one scream loud enough and it feels like the right thing to do, the name and the statue will be erased from memory.

#169 Zhang on 07.04.17 at 4:39 pm

@ #132 Fake News on 07.04.17 at 12:19 pm

You can always tell someone has nothing helpful to say when they use the term fake news.

#170 TnT on 07.04.17 at 4:41 pm

#168 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 4:30 pm

Does anyone ask if it was Ryerson’s intention was to screw first nations children or was it a prevailing “good” idea at the time but failed miserably in its execution?

Ignorance is no longer an excuse.

Please read up on the horror stories endured by those with “good intentions”, there’s plenty of literature that goes beyond the headlines.

Here’s a good article to get a sense of how it is, right now in our own backyard.

http://www.macleans.ca/news/waiting-for-death-in-thunder-bay/

#171 Livin Large on 07.04.17 at 4:42 pm

“Path: Join ISIS as child soldier. Kill a fellow human. Get tortured a bit while in jail. Come back to country who gave you citizenship expecting you to positively contribute. Sue the government. Win $10M.” OK, it’s time to dial back the xenophobic bovine scatology rhetoric. You have become an embarrassment here.

There may be some nasty spots on the Web for this kind of hate but I’m quite certain it isn’t this blog.

Before you start with the “free world” crap, it isn’t. You’re entitled to hold your hate, just not free to express it.

#172 TnT on 07.04.17 at 4:46 pm

#165 Smoking Man on 07.04.17 at 4:19 pm

Wrong again…

Read: #163 InvestorsFriend on 07.04.17 at 4:17 pm

Said better than I ever could…

#173 jess on 07.04.17 at 4:50 pm

n1tro
If one is angry regarding payouts shouldn’t the anger be directed towards those “Canadian Authorities”

The Torture Files,
http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/episodes/2014-2015/the-torture-files

======================
Grenfell fire: Many survivors still in hotels
polyethylene panels fitted to Grenfell Tower are reported to be £2 cheaper per square metre than similar fire resistant panels.
towering infernos
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4611268/Grenfell-cladding-bosses-2-5m-tax-avoidance.html

lots of room to pitch some tents
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3802860/couple-whose-company-were-responsible-for-cladding-at-tragic-grenfell-tower-hide-away-in-1million-home/

#174 Wrk.dover on 07.04.17 at 4:54 pm

DELETED

#175 n1tro on 07.04.17 at 5:06 pm

@#171 Livin Large

You must think I’m “white”. LoL.

It’s people like Omar that give the rest of immigrants a bad name. I don’t see where the “hate” is in what I wrote. Insert Omar with any white kid’s name, goes over to a non white country (whatever that means) and kills someone, gets tortured while being held, then comes back to home country and sues the government for not taking care of him in a situation he created himself.

Nuts! What’s next. Rapists suing victims??

If Omar Khadar was a righteous person, he would take the $10M and give it to the family of the soldier he killed or on programs that stops radicalization as part atonement for what he did.

#176 Trump's Commission on 07.04.17 at 5:06 pm

“Following a White House commission’s request that states turn over voters’ full names, addresses, dates of birth, political parties, social security digits, and other personal data, dozens of U.S. states have registered their on-the-record objections.

“CNN reported Tuesday that 44 states have now refused a request by the Trump administration to provide certain information about registered voters, ranging from their criminal records to time spent abroad. A CNN inquiry into all 50 U.S. states found that state leaders and voting officials across the country have been fairly quick to respond to the request for voter data, sent last Wednesday by the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity—and, in most cases, to reject it.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/janetwburns/2017/07/04/now-44-states-have-refused-trump-commissions-demand-for-voter-info/#6f4492264458

#177 Smoking Man on 07.04.17 at 5:24 pm

#172 TnT on 07.04.17 at 4:46 pm
#165 Smoking Man on 07.04.17 at 4:19 pm

Wrong again…

Read: #163 InvestorsFriend on 07.04.17 at 4:17 pm

Said better than I ever could…
….
So im just wrong, the science is settled, where have I heard that before.

You don’t understand human nature. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Although a unicorn worshiper might see it in a different way. We need balanced sovern nations to keep each other honest.

#178 T on 07.04.17 at 5:43 pm

#95 Shemale on 07.04.17 at 12:37 am

I’m getting very tired of people like this. Show some valid data to prove your point. Otherwise you are just another fool.

Can we get some kind of intelligence test before allowing comments?

#179 Livin Large on 07.04.17 at 8:02 pm

You must think I care what your complexion is n1tro. Nothing is farther from my mind.
You have the facts of his case so sadly screwed up you’re even placing the birth of ISIS almost in the wrong century.
A wrongly convicted person is wrongly convicted regardless of their gender, age, complexion, religion, ethnicity etc. so your anger isn’t that a person was wrongly convicted but because that person is in you hate some how undeserving of compensation and that’s bigotry.

Still, you’re spewing bigotry on a blog totally unrelated to your bigotry.

#180 Glengarry Girl on 07.04.17 at 8:34 pm

I am a recent reader of this Blog. Economic news has always been interesting to me and I read a lot about it. I’ve been through a lot of Boom and Bust in my lifetime. My hometown is Windsor. I grew up knowing that the economy had highs and lows and for us it was based on Manufacturing and Automotive. My husband got a job at IBM and we moved to Toronto, he got me in too and we were DINKs making BANK. When we first got there we had to get a loan to pay first and last months rent (1200 month) Rents were outrageously expensive. We saved and watched the market and it corrected 25% and we could finally afford to get in at what we thought was the very bottom. The Agents said “It’s a great time to Buy” (don’t they always) so we bought a condo in Etobicoke in 1994, and then it REALLY corrected. At the same time IBM had cut a significant portion of their Canadian workforce. Two people in our building jumped off an overpass. People were crying and packing up their desks, it really was bad times. My Dad was let go from his job that he was loyal to since 18 years old. It was strategical and after a merger, he got screwed out of a full pension at 50 with young kids at home. I learned a lot from that time in my life and am grateful for the lesson. My husband and I have never been loyal to any Company and never expected a paycheck except for the one that we already earned. We don’t have much confidence in the Stock Market, Pensions or many traditional Investments. I feel that I am fairly good at reading economic data and evaluating it and acting accordingly. The signs of Boom and Bust are similar each time. The ONE common thing, through all these cycles is that most people do not see it coming. They do not see the signs of Bust and they do not see the signs of Boom. I Feel that in Public, I am not allowed to talk about it, it’s too REAL and too upsetting. I often am watching a pattern that is obvious to me, yet MOST people around me don’t see it. After IBM we owned our own computer consulting business and did well for 12 years, living back home on Lake St Clair raising our children. Another severe downturn was underway and we made calculated decisions based on what we knew was going to happen. We moved to Seattle WA when they were at height of their Real Estate BOOM. During the 18 months that we rented there, their housing market corrected rather severely and quickly. Our neighbors that looked down on us for being Dirty Renters suddenly were underwater. These people were Smug and at the beginning we were told things like “If you don’t get into the Market now, you never will” I joked and said that we should quit working and just buy 2 houses (sarc) I read a Blog called the Seattle Bubble daily and the comment section was where I learned the most. I know that the things that I’ve learned would be good to share and are valuable. I think that this blog may be a good place to do that because I am seeing Canada as I did the US before the Crash. I especially pay attention to how People react or don’t during the Phases of a Bubble. Probably like most of you here, I have often tried to talk to Family and Friends and warn them to protect their assets. In Canada, I have had very few receptive to this type of talk because “we are Special” “we don’t have the same bad banking and loan practices as the States did” “our cities are growing so supply and demand will keep things going” All the same things were said in the US before the Crash but after taking an absolute ass kicking for the past 8 years, People there are talking. I am tactful and respectful, I don’t push my views and I try not to scare and provoke or argue, so mostly I have to remain Silent. It’s SO difficult, because all anyone in Canada ever talks about is Real Estate. I believe that this Debt Bomb in Canada is about to Explode, can I talk about it here?

#181 Stock Picker on 07.05.17 at 2:19 am

Nitro #135 Khadr the Terrorist was never tortured. His sleepy sleep was interrupted….

In the CBC and CTV they yell about his human rights being violated in that he lost his freedom. Every killer in prison loses his freedom. That’s why we have a justice system….otherwise why bother?

The Supreme Court decided that the govt not the court had the authority to judge him. The bleeding heart BS we’re getting out of the leftist jihad is in the Liberal Party is complete crap.

What an embarrassment for all Canadians that we look like terror is acceptable and profitable.

#182 You Must Have Been Living In A Cave on 07.05.17 at 3:02 am

Glengarry Girl

OMG you should certainly talk about your experiences. I can relate somewhat as I went through buying my 7th house in 1989 and lost a fortune in 2001. My kids are well trained and are ready to pounce now. I’m a RE buff, bought 8 houses with my ex and sold in the right market until the end……….lost everything. I’m now fine but my sister in law just helped my electrician nephew buy a house in Bramalea for $475k (No, not fancy, in the J section) WTF I thought, like you, that they would ask for advice from me, no go, so I know what you are going through, sit tight as you will win and you are right.

#183 YulYyz on 07.05.17 at 10:36 am

Meanwhile in the town of Hastings… this listing made me really sad- the contrast with some pockets of Toronto where a million buys an ugly small shack.

19 ALBERT Street East , HASTINGS, Ontario K0L1Y0
$200,000
MLS:512160209

#184 IHCTD9 on 07.05.17 at 12:30 pm

#183 YulYyz on 07.05.17 at 10:36 am Meanwhile in the town of Hastings… this listing made me really sad- the contrast with some pockets of Toronto where a million buys an ugly small shack. 19 ALBERT Street East , HASTINGS, Ontario K0L1Y0 $200,000 MLS:512160209
_____________________

That could make an ultra-cool house with a metric ton of work. Google what others have done with old Churches, they can be made stunningly beautiful inside.