The Donald

“It’s just because you hate Trump,” Tom said. “And I’m not doing it. The Dow is gonna double.”

So Tom’s a retired Airbus captain who spends at least half his time in Arizona and the rest in the Okanagan. He wisely took a lump-sum pension payment instead of fully-taxable monthly distributions, and is sitting on seven figures in a nicely diversified and balanced portfolio which churns out a sweet monthly paycheque. Tom loves Trump. Got the red MAGA ball cap. Fox News on the cable all day. Hates lefties with a passion. Every day is a new Morning in America. Shining City on the Hill. “And don’t you be saying anything about Melania. Or Jared.”

So explaining to Tom that his portfolio should be tweaked to harvest some US stock gains, reducing the American weighting a little and adding a few points to Europe and Canada, was painful. There were words. And emotion. Thus, Tom remains overweight America. Risk on.

If nothing else, Trump stirs the loins of a lot of people. A masterful influencer of opinion, he inspires this kind of comment on a certain pathetic blog: “Garth has a sick obsession with Trump that emanates from jealousy most probably. He mentions him in every post.”

Emotion is the enemy of investing. We’ve seen that with real estate, where fear of missing out created panic buying which has been followed by fear of buying – even as choice expands and prices fall. Same with stocks and mutual funds – people bail out at the worst possible moment, maximizing losses (witness March, 2009), instead of pouring in when prices fall. Over and again we repeat the pattern – buy high and sell low. It is always, 100%, based on emotion.

In fact, one US study showed over a 20-year period, emotional behaviour cost investors more than $120 billion. They invested with their pants. Not their heads. Trump’s personality seems to accentuate that. Those who hate the guy and sat out missed an historic rally. Those who adore him have trouble seeing the risk now accumulating.

Anyone who feared this unexpected presidency and dumped US stocks missed a post-election run-up which has the Dow and the S&P oscillating at record-high levels. Anyone envious of the big gains, wanting to jump in – like buying a Toronto house at current levels – faces buying into a market which may disappoint. It’s the job of an advisor – dispassionately – to adjust weightings in a tactical way to reduce volatility and risk while maintaining acceptable returns. It has nothing to do with Trump as a leader. But everything to do with the outcome of his leadership.

Why was there a Trump Bump?

Simple. He’s a business guy with a cabinet full of business guys and has a pro-business agenda. Markets figured that would mean big tax cuts (especially for corporations), a slashing of anti-business regulations, greater pro-America protectionist measures, an enhanced GDP leading to increased inflation and massive stimulus spending. Just as he promised. So, up she went.

In the six months since the new presidency has begun, none of the above has happened. While corporate profits are robust, economic growth’s been lacklustre, inflation has barely budged, no trade treaties have been abrogated, no taxes cut, no red tape eliminated, no budget passed and no infrastructure program begun. So investors have been patient and some of them may start to believe current valuations are unsustainable. Meanwhile Trump has seen his travel ban repelled, his health care bill shelved, his budget ignored, plus he’s become mired in controversy over the firing of the FBI director, allegations of obstruction of justice and a probe into his Russia ties.

Whether any of that sticks or not is irrelevant. What matters to markets, ultimately, is his agenda. If getting massively bogged down with political issues impairs his ability to deliver economic growth, equities will correct to reflect that. And this looks increasing possible. Besides, if the point of investing is to make money, why wouldn’t smart investors take some money off that table at a moment of record values?

Nobody knows where this will end. Trump may survive four (or eight) years and make America great again. Or he might quit, be impeached, blow up. The US economy will survive whatever happens and no investor should be without exposure to it. But that’s just one hunk of an overall portfolio strategy, and right now there’s growth potential elsewhere where assets are cheaper and conditions improving.

Love the guy. Or hate him. Just don’t bet on him.

179 comments ↓

#1 Michael King on 06.18.17 at 2:44 pm

Your client “Tom” is complacent. He and those who think like him are asking for trouble.

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/06/coming-apart-the-imperial-city-at-the-brink/

#2 Derek R on 06.18.17 at 2:53 pm

America has been okay. But Europe is looking better and better at the moment.

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.18.17 at 2:54 pm

Sooooo we should sell some US ETF’s and leave it in US cash?

#4 Curious about Barrie on 06.18.17 at 3:22 pm

What’s happening in Barrie now? The bubble’s burst yet?

#5 conan on 06.18.17 at 3:28 pm

I agree that America should be reduced by 5 %, and that amount shifted to other investments. I get the feeling that the USA is going to miss out on some trade deals. Trump’s plan is to cherry pick from the potpourri of international co operation. Problem is, other countries might tell him to stuff it, and that will hurt the USA.

Has Trump done anything besides tear down/discard thought out policy?

#6 AK on 06.18.17 at 3:43 pm

“In the six months since the new presidency has begun, none of the above has happened.”
——————————————————————–
Well, 5 months tomorrow.

Give him some time. President Trump will get things done.

#7 greyhound on 06.18.17 at 4:00 pm

Stan Druckenmiller is arguably one of the brightest & most successful investors in North America. Tom might want to listen to what he said at the sohn conference:
“The conference wants a specific recommendation from me. I guess ‘Get out of the stock market’ isn’t clear enough.”

#8 Whazzzup on 06.18.17 at 4:06 pm

America was great, but looking forward

Trump is making China Greater and Greater
In the years to come US needs to take China Down soon otherwise they will fall further and further behind, until China’s forces will be too much for the US to deal with

#9 prairie person on 06.18.17 at 4:17 pm

Victoria. A neighbour just put his house up for sale for 623. Two hour open house. The place was jammed with people but it may have been mostly other RE agents checking the place out. Hard to say. Somebody was even walking around on the roof. An RE agent owns the place. Bought it a few years ago for around 450. If it goes for asking, it won’t be a huge profit but he has lived there in the intervening time. Garth, houses still selling lickety split in this area of Victoria. For sale signs up, sold signs up shortly after. However, all I have is just local anecdotal evidence from looking around the neighbourhood. I’ve no idea what is happening overall. Some outrageous prices being asked. At least, they seem to be outrageous to me.

#10 Bucky on 06.18.17 at 4:23 pm

Garth,

Took your advice last week and sold some of my US small caps fund to buy Europe ETFs to rebalance. Thanks for writing this column.

#11 moneydriven on 06.18.17 at 4:30 pm

Garth,

Thanks for your blog. Would you be able to write something that explains the following:

– Dec 2015, Dec 2016, Mar 2017, Jun 2017: The Fed Rate is gone up by 1%. Yet the mortgage rate (Canadian which I’m mostly concern with) are still at rock bottom rate or maybe increased by .25 from the lowest rate ever.

Even Fed projection is 3% (additional 2%) to “natural rate”. So what does that translate to interest rate as main driver of housing prices?

Why is the long term (10 years) treasury rate has not moved as oppose to short term one?

Where do you see the mortgage rate going for the next 12 months without additional rate increase?

How about if we get .25 in Canada and another .5 in US in next 12 months?

#12 Fake News on 06.18.17 at 4:51 pm

Considering the LEFT are the violent crazy ones our friend Tom ———–> Is correct

#13 BC_Doc on 06.18.17 at 4:55 pm

I hold VXC-T (Vanguard Global All Cap)for my US and international equity exposure– holding this, there is no need to speculate or make an emotional decision/market time when it comes to buying and selling US, Europe, or emerging markets. It’s an index fund– premixed and self-baking so it looks after itself. Keep the oven door closed and avoid peaking too often and the recipe will turn out just fine.

#14 jess on 06.18.17 at 4:56 pm

emotional behaviour OR borrow big to earn big

The End of China Inc?
As time is running out for China to pay off its bad debts, 101 East investigates if this could be the end of China Inc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eV-Xq1tSHK4

Steve began his career in Canada working for various networks and was Asia Bureau Chief for CTV News, before joining Al Jazeera in 2009 as Senior Asia Correspondent.
===================

liar loans in china
developers trying to sell their projects

#15 Rargary on 06.18.17 at 5:01 pm

At least Tom was smart enough to invest in the okanagan

#16 lala on 06.18.17 at 5:05 pm

DELETED

#17 Tony on 06.18.17 at 5:28 pm

Tom probably has his head in the clouds and like all the other clueless retirees will end up going back to work after going broke.

#18 Tony on 06.18.17 at 5:38 pm

Re: #10 Bucky on 06.18.17 at 4:23 pm

Europe follows America. Hong Kong and China move independently of America. Search for charts showing the correlations between the FTSE 100, the DAX and the DOW and NASDAQ over a long period of time. They mostly move in lockstep.

#19 earthboundmisfit on 06.18.17 at 5:48 pm

If Tom is of retirement age, I guess it’s too late to ask him not to breed. Aaack! What an idiot!

#20 akashic record on 06.18.17 at 6:01 pm

Even something simple, like a college can no longer work in the US, to accomplish very traditional, no-brainier task.

The scenes are straight from the pages of Communism in the USSR, Eastern-Europe in the 50’s, the Chinese Cultural Revolution between 1966-1976, the Khmer Rouge period (1975–1979) in Cambodia, Iranian Cultural Revolution (1980–1983).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cMYfxOFBBM

The US Democratic Party is silently supportive, hoping that these fringe ideology driven zombies can fix what their leadership and selected candidate could not do during the election: defeat Trump.

The American political elite – with the political establishments in other G7 countries – have been effectively denying the orderly transition of power to the elected president, risking civil war.

That’s what Garth describes as: “Meanwhile Trump has seen his travel ban repelled, his health care bill shelved, his budget ignored, plus he’s become mired in controversy over the firing of the FBI director, allegations of obstruction of justice and a probe into his Russia ties.”

It is a risky game to create this power vacuum, emotions can get out of control and lead to civil war in no time.

#21 jess on 06.18.17 at 6:01 pm

Credit-to-GDP gaps
China 2011 – 6.3 canada end of 4th Q 2016- 14

http://www.bis.org/statistics/tables_j.pdf

China’s credit to GDP gap remains higher, at 26.3 per cent, according to Monday’s report, but Canada’s 17.4 per cent figure is up from last fall and well above the closely watched BIS threshold of 10 per cent.

What is credit to GDP ratio?
The more familiar term, the credit-to-GDP ratio, is the ratio of a country’s national debt to its gross domestic product. The credit-to-GDP gap is a measure that provides advanced signals of banking system stress and can be used to as part of a set of central bank policy tools to mitigate banking system risk.Jan 13, 2016

#22 Some dude on 06.18.17 at 6:12 pm

Could anyone post Garthfolio sample including these changes? Thanks.

#23 ...no trade treaties have been abrogated on 06.18.17 at 6:14 pm

Not when you can pick off pieces of trade as in the Softwood Lumber tariffs.

$867M in financial assistance by Canada Gov in loans and loan guarantees [$500 MM] and the rest to worker relief and developing new markets [the balance].

An effective strategy by the US to tariff and pick off piecemeal what they don’t like than waste time negotiating an entire trade treaty like NAFTA and a lot faster too.

If the US continue to do this, the cost will be very high to Canada Gov trying to protect other Cdn industry segments the US will target.

#24 Betting on Trudeau instead ? on 06.18.17 at 6:22 pm

A housing bubble …..oil at $45

Give me USA. No need to change allocation .

Market timers fail over and over and over again .

#25 boopsie on 06.18.17 at 6:39 pm

Just as a distraction from endless Trump, go to G&M and look for Robert Campeau obit and article. Talk about rags to riches to rags. Shows you that timing is everything, and you do not know what is coming down the road. He was 93.

#26 Dave on 06.18.17 at 6:42 pm

And who was in power the last 8 years when the economy was brought back from the abyss? The Democrats. Who almost blew up the world economy with deragulation and lack of oversight? The Republicans. Tell that to the right wing Airbus clown.

#27 jess on 06.18.17 at 6:55 pm

Kansas
‘We are a cautionary tale’: Kansas feels the pain of massive Trump-style tax cuts

In 2012, Kansas did what Donald Trump wants to do: it introduced huge tax cuts to try to boost growth. Today, the state is out of money – and residents are angry

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/15/kansas-trump-style-tax-cuts-economic-disaster

=================================
“Governor Brownback’s fellow Republicans voted to override his veto of a bill to reverse many of the tax cuts he championed as a way to spur entrepreneurs and the economy, but which have left the state with a $1bn hole in its budget.”

Dominic Rushe in New York and the Associated Press
Wednesday 7 June 2017 16.42 BST

#28 Ace Goodheart on 06.18.17 at 7:01 pm

RE: “He wisely took a lump-sum pension payment instead of fully-taxable monthly distributions, and is sitting on seven figures in a nicely diversified and balanced portfolio which churns out a sweet monthly paycheque.”

What are people’s feelings towards all the leveraging that is going on right now with ETFs? If you 4x or more leverage these things, and the markets they are based on go down say 10% (not unusual in a crash, from which we know there has always historically been a recovery – and we also know historically that crashes ALWAYS happen) will these things survive?

I have this ridiculous portfolio made up of a mass of stuff (I have a rule no more than $1000.00 per item, no matter what, and I have a little over 700K invested so I am diversified probably more than any person alive).

Upside is I cannot be sewered no matter what happens. I have everything. If something goes down, something else comes up.

Downside is it is impossible to keep track of it all.

My rant on the LCBO strike:

There is no need for this silly government alcohol monopoly. It is time for Ontario to follow pretty much every other civilized place and just alow private sale of alcohol. The LCBO is a dinosaur remnant of prohibition and a reminder that it is still illegal for any person or corporation to sell alcohol in the Province of Ontario, with two exceptions, the privately owned brewer’s retail co-operative and sales of alcohol through the LCBO. If you want to sell alcohol in Ontario, you have to sell it to the LCBO, at whatever price they will give you, and then they “resell it” to the public at a large markup. This results in the ridiculous situation that brewers of alcohol must sell their product to the government, and then act as “agent” of the government to sell the alcohol, which now belongs to the government, back to the public, out of their own retail locations.

The “spin” that is always sold to the public is that alcohol is so dangerous, that only the government can sell it. Yet private locations sell gasoline (a much more dangerous liquid) under strict government regulations and training. We are told that private sale of alcohol would harm our “morals”. This is Church talk. If you are not religious, it is infuriating to be told by an elected democratic government that they are in charge of your “morals”.

Now we have a public service union threatening to make Ontario a “dry” Province unless they get full time, high paying jobs for all their cashiers and shelf stockers. So up goes the price of booze, into the stratosphere, to pay for all of this. All because it is just too dangerous for alcohol to be sold privately (like it is pretty much everywhere else).

I guess smoking man and all the other peeps on here better stock up on their hooch, or know a good bootlegger. Time for a road trip to a Detroit Walmart for some good old $7.99 forty ounce bottles of Imported Canadian Rye Whisky.

Cheers!

#29 Spectacle on 06.18.17 at 7:04 pm

Michael King on 06.18.17 at 2:44 pm
Your client “Tom” is complacent. He and those who think like him are asking for trouble.

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/06/coming-apart-the-imperial-city-at-the-brink/

——— blog reply, complacency of a population ——-
Great analytical contribution to the blog Mickael
King. Regards, M

Ferguson’s final message about America’s destiny comes from Foreign Affairs: “Conceived in the mid-1830s, Cole’s great five-part painting has a clear message: all empires, no matter how magnificent, are condemned to decline and fall.” Throughout history, empires function “in apparent equilibrium for some unknowable period. And then, quite abruptly … collapse,”

#30 Ace Goodheart on 06.18.17 at 7:15 pm

RE: “Hates lefties with a passion. Every day is a new Morning in America. Shining City on the Hill. “And don’t you be saying anything about Melania. Or Jared.”

We better hope we’re right on this left wing, anti Trump stuff. Cause no one else seems to like it. Russia loves him, China is like “meh” and all the big US capitalists are just watching and learning……

If it turns out we’re wrong, then we’re catching up to the USA again. But isn’t that what we always do anyway?………..

#31 the Jaguar on 06.18.17 at 7:19 pm

I have a comment on the subject of Trump.
However, before I can get to it I have to call out #50 Acdel on yesterdays post for a) not being able to put a sentence together, and b) being disrespectful to Doug. Your comments were low. Get a grip. Stay on topic and don’t disrespect Doug.

About Trump.
Since his election to the highest office in the USA/world there have been hourly attempts to tear the man down. Many reasons, I suppose. Principal among them is the failure of those who called the election in favour of his opponent to “get it right”. It was and will be recorded as the biggest blunder in history by the left. Wounded pride on display. The left has been unable to move on. They are absorbed with finding a way to get him out of office.
Like him or don’t like him. He is the President. Millions voted him into office. And he stepped up. Given his financial position he really didn’t have to do it. Yes, he isn’t very presidential – his comments, tweets, hair, etc. appalling. Acknowledged. But at what point is the agenda moved to the issues and problems of the day instead of spending every second of the day trying to find a Russian in the closet? I used to think it was the crazy right wing element that we needed to keep an eye on. That’s all changed with the emergence of the crazy left wing element.

#32 Fake News on 06.18.17 at 7:23 pm

#2 Derek R on 06.18.17 at 2:53 pm
America has been okay. But Europe is looking better and better at the moment.

______________________________________

Thanks for the laugh on Fathers Day !!

#33 TurnerNation on 06.18.17 at 7:25 pm

Re. There’s no Replacement for Displacement.

We see boomers lusting over Covettes on here.
Do not forget rule #2: If it Flys, Floats or Flaunts then Rent it.

Financing 60-80k of used Vette over 4-5 years at 4-5% will cost you at least $1100-1200 each month.
Plus maintainence and repairs (how much for those wide Z-rated tires? A new set of brakes?)

OR…rent a brand new Vette convertable from Monday to Thursday for $1100 for the 4 days.

http://www.affinitycarrentals.com/showroom-single.html?car_id=28

– Seeing as we have 6 months of winter, rent it 2x a month – this is 8 days – during the 6 good months of the year. Same same. Enough driving for you?

(In both cases insurance and gas are extra, as expected)

#34 Shawn on 06.18.17 at 7:27 pm

All valid points but I disagree.

Trump is doing the opposite of what you’re suggesting – he’s preventing fund managers from going overweight US equities because of all the reasons you have mentioned.

http://fat-pitch.blogspot.ca/2017/06/fund-managers-current-asset-allocation.html?m=1

Fund manager allocation to US equities is near a 9 year low as everyone has jumped on the Europe band wagon. Retail investors have been net sellers of US equities more or less since 2000 – increasingly since 2008. Most of this $ has gone into bonds and international equities. The arm chair investor you referred to in your post is largely out of the stock market.

The S&P500 is the contrarian long. Investors should be overweight US equities. Trumps is a distraction. The US has always been great and will be greater in the future.

#35 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.18.17 at 7:29 pm

go to G&M and look for Robert Campeau obit and article. Talk about rags to riches to rags.
—————————————————
Watch the NFB film ‘Double or Nothing: The Rise and Fall of Robert Campeau’. It’s an amazing story.

As for the LCBO: Why don’t the people just boycott alcohol until the government lifts the LCBO monopoly. If the people won’t do it they deserve what they get. If you don’t want to buy non-essential items from a govt monopoly then don’t. It’s amazing how simple things really are.

#36 No Bubble Trouble on 06.18.17 at 7:38 pm

With so many people “seeing” or “expecting” a bubble means that there is no bubble. Expensive housing is all relative. Ask someone from Beijing if Toronto is expensive and they will say “no”.

Toronto and Vancouver are not in housing bubbles despite what Garth and some economists believe.

The true contrarian view is that housing prices will still rise, and not fall. 5 years from now you will be shocked to realize that prices have continued to creep upward.

Save this post and pin it on your fridge to remind yourselves that this is not a bubble but an equalization of international house prices in all desirable cities…yes, Toronto is desirable folks, sorry but true.

#37 Ace Goodheart on 06.18.17 at 7:47 pm

RE: #31 The Jaguar: “Like him or don’t like him. He is the President. Millions voted him into office.”

That is what I keep thinking about Trump. He is a democratically elected President, of one of the world’s three most important economic powers (the other two are of course China and Russia).

Are all of the attacks against him just left wing hysteria? I hate politics and I don’t like taking a position, but I can’t help thinking that this guy is being mistreated. Or at least misunderstood. He is going about things the wrong way and he has no understanding of democratic principles, but at the same time he has spent his life directing corporations, not in politics.

He is an enigma. But I don’t believe he is going to go down in the flames that people think he is. He is a rare flame and he has a lot of fuel to his fire. He is not to be either underestimated or ignored and right now the thing to do is to try to understand what he actually is.

#38 cd on 06.18.17 at 7:50 pm

Not sure if people caught this in the news this week, but it was The Donald’s birthday this past week. He’s the ripe age of 75 now. With his ridiculous diet, super stressful job, and limited amount of exercise, I don’t believe there will be a second term. He will want to just go into retirement and catch up on playing golf badly.

He’s 71. — Garth

#39 Down and Out on 06.18.17 at 7:59 pm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-18/chinas-ghost-collateral-arrives-canada-heralding-crisis
INTERESTING

#40 Russ on 06.18.17 at 8:02 pm

cd on 06.18.17 at 7:50 pm

… He’s the ripe age of 75 now. With his ridiculous diet, super stressful job, and limited amount of exercise, I don’t believe there will be a second term. He will want to just go into retirement and catch up on playing golf badly.

He’s 71. — Garth
=======================

Dammit. That means one more term.

Cheers, R.

#41 Entrepreneur on 06.18.17 at 8:09 pm

Missing some important points and that is Trump loves his country, U.S.A. and will fight for the people within it.

A lot of people do not want Trump to succeed so will block his every move but he can do what he can do and progress from there, hopefully. It is too bad the political parties could not work something as this is a nation for the people not for the political parties. Just like here in Canada, Liberal party or Conservative parties (bully pals power players) but what about the people of that nation.

Happy Father’s Day and enjoy what you have, appreciate, be thankful for the small things.

#42 DON on 06.18.17 at 8:14 pm

#31 the Jaguar on 06.18.17 at 7:19 pm

Nice read! I especially liked the following:

…I used to think it was the crazy right wing element that we needed to keep an eye on. That’s all changed with the emergence of the crazy left wing element…

The decline of western civilization…

Garth: Thank you for the blog!

#43 DON on 06.18.17 at 8:21 pm

#36 No Bubble Trouble on 06.18.17 at 7:38 pm

With so many people “seeing” or “expecting” a bubble means that there is no bubble. Expensive housing is all relative. Ask someone from Beijing if Toronto is expensive and they will say “no”.

Toronto and Vancouver are not in housing bubbles despite what Garth and some economists believe.

The true contrarian view is that housing prices will still rise, and not fall. 5 years from now you will be shocked to realize that prices have continued to creep upward.

Save this post and pin it on your fridge to remind yourselves that this is not a bubble but an equalization of international house prices in all desirable cities…yes, Toronto is desirable folks, sorry but true.
**********

A little ahead of yourself, the hangover is yet to unfold (who knows the timeline) OR bubbles can deflate over a longer period of time (depending on circumstances). The cycle is not over yet!

#44 BobC on 06.18.17 at 8:26 pm

Great advice. Obama did way to much damage for anybody to fix in a few months or even a few years. Plus there’s far to many people against making America great again.
I’m listening and following your advice. It is what it is.

#45 joblo on 06.18.17 at 8:39 pm

How’s the WALL coming along Donnie?

#46 joblo on 06.18.17 at 8:40 pm

Do a deal with China the Great wall, it’ll be great. It’s Yuuuuge.

#47 More weight on Canada ? on 06.18.17 at 8:47 pm

Technically its hanging on a cliff and has a housing bubble that can burst with significant collateral damage

What am I missing ?

#48 TnT on 06.18.17 at 8:49 pm

#31 the Jaguar on 06.18.17 at 7:19 pm

Jaguar, your posts are always intelligent, thoughtful and I appreciate them.

I always hated the “Right” when they trashed President Obama especially the Birthers (lead by Trump) and now I hate the left for doing the same.

Until…

I listened to this podcast and feel there’s something big behind the scenes that is preventing something dangerous to our society.

Podcast here:
https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/the-road-to-tyranny

I read this short book after this podcast.
On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century By Timothy Snyder.

I was a big follower on Deep State and anti-globalization but what is happening before our eyes is bigger than anyone could imagine.

In my youth I spent many years trying to understand how the Nazi mentality took hold of Germany and I recognize that history is repeating itself.

It’s not a conscious movement from the “Right”, its more of a inevitable path that normalizes things that are not normal.

Have a go at the podcast and book and see if it enlightens your perspective on what’s happening in our polictical scene.

Cheers!

#49 Wrk.dover on 06.18.17 at 8:49 pm

Investment, fools toy, or whatever you see it as, the trouble with a fast car is the stunting law. If they don’t confiscate the thing, they still jack your premiums…on all of your cars, for six years.

I sold my grossly over powered ground pounder fifteen years ago, before they got to pull me over. Another thing for the millenials not to enjoy, 0-100 mph and back to 0 in half a minute, and not much problem if caught doing it back then.

Video games don’t do G force.

#50 Wrk.dover on 06.18.17 at 8:51 pm

#44 BobC on 06.18.17 at 8:26 pm

Obama caused Paulson to create TARP. Sure Bob.

#51 Boombust on 06.18.17 at 8:55 pm

#44 BobC

Au contraire, mon ami.

Obama pulled the US out of the ditch after 8 years of mismanagement by Bush Jr.

Give your head a shake.

#52 Dan on 06.18.17 at 8:56 pm

Donald Trump is like A Mayor Ford on steroids….lots of mindless talk….gets nothing done…except making sure his family is well paid by the tax payers….going to get government health care, government benefits and probably some good pension.
Markets are based on emotions but there is a short time for emotions and a longer time when things turn for the worst. Sure cheer for your Trump team…like a sport…but at some point you have to admit that so far…his team has proven to be a demolition crew…not nation builders….motivational speakers still in election mode….with no substance…where are the great economic benefits coming out of Washington…..with a majority in both houses…..Don’t tell me he needs more time…time for what ?

#53 young & foolish on 06.18.17 at 8:59 pm

Get real folks … everything is overvalued, all at the same time. Excessive liquidity has pushed up values for every thing out there. Something will come along an trigger another “crisis”, and there will be no place to hide!

#54 Joseph R. on 06.18.17 at 9:01 pm

#38 cd on 06.18.17 at 7:50 pm
” … He will want to just go into retirement and catch up on playing golf badly.”

———————————————————-

I don’t think he will wait for retirement to catch up on golf; he has already demonstrated, by his behavior that visiting Mar-la-go to play golf on weekend, was more important than his job or visiting his wife and son back in New York.

#55 Russ on 06.18.17 at 9:01 pm

…no trade treaties have been abrogated on 06.18.17
———————————–
Not when you can pick off pieces of trade as in the Softwood Lumber tariffs.

$867M in financial assistance by Canada Gov in loans and loan guarantees [$500 MM] and the rest to worker relief and developing new markets [the balance].

An effective strategy by the US to tariff and pick off piecemeal what they don’t like than waste time negotiating an entire trade treaty like NAFTA and a lot faster too.

If the US continue to do this, the cost will be very high to Canada Gov trying to protect other Cdn industry segments the US will target.
=======================

Hey No Tradie,

You might want to review history a bit.

The Softwood Lumber Agreement was stripped outta NAFTA over 20 years ago.

Many tariffs disputes have come & gone. Canada won every one of them in the world court. That is why Canfor (and others) stock price is still doing okay.

This is another yawner while The Donald is going for political equity here.

Try to keep up.

Cheers, Russ

#56 True North on 06.18.17 at 9:01 pm

#24 “Market timers fail over and over and over again .”

Big difference between market timing and managing risk.

#57 Stock Picker on 06.18.17 at 9:02 pm

I’m with Tom. Obama had the numbers dummied up and a sycophant media to regurgitate the lies. The bull market started Nov 9, 2016 and the macro world wide agrees. The media would like us to swallow their lies about ‘the resistance’ impeaching this president….nonsense…..noise…..salacious claptrap. Listening to anyone who bets against a sitting president is an idiot. Betting against the US of A and for a continent which is collapsing under the weight of a full blown religious invasion is naive. Go Tom Go.

#58 A Reply to #48 TnT on 06.18.17 at 9:08 pm

“Have a go at the podcast and book and see if it enlightens your perspective on what’s happening in our polictical scene.”

No, my perspective has not changed. It’s yours that’s changing! You’re beginning to see the world through my eyes!

“When you can snatch the pebble from my hand, Grasshopper, it will be time for you to go.”

#59 Deplorable Dude on 06.18.17 at 9:16 pm

You’re viewing the Uni-Party on full display.

Despite controlling everything, the GOP has basically achieved nothing in 5 months….because they don’t want to, they don’t want Trump as their President.

There is no separate Democrats and Republican party ….they are all beholden to the same corporate globalist campaign sponsors…the ones who actually write all the leglislation btw. There is simply the Uni-party.

The GOP voters are fast running out of patience. You will start to see the tide turn come the 2018 mid-term elections. These spinless GOP polititians had better start enacting Trumps policies or they will find themself voted out of a job.

#60 BobC on 06.18.17 at 9:19 pm

#50 & 51
Just looking at just financials your right. Borrow $9 trillion and hand it out and it really does stimulate the economy. Now the bill is coming due for all the give aways. Interest rates going up on all that borrowed money. We now have a choice. Much higher taxes, much higher inflation or far less government services.
Lets just blame Trump.

#61 NoName on 06.18.17 at 9:52 pm

#48 TnT on 06.18.17 at 8:49 pm

you could read all that in very short form, more than a year ago in this post.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/02/25/the-donald/#comment-434724

#62 Mark on 06.18.17 at 10:02 pm

“Why is the long term (10 years) treasury rate has not moved as oppose to short term one?”

Short-term rates move in expectation of changes to or the continuance monetary policy as set forth by the BoC or the Federal Reserve in the respective currencies. Long-term rates move along with inflation expectations in a given currency. Along with some sort of time premium or risk premium associated for interest rate risk.

Given that GoC yields are ultra-low, the expectation is that there will be very little inflation going forward. In other words, there is likely an expectation of deflation at some point over the next decade before a resumption of an ‘ordinary’ amount of inflation.

Intuitively this makes sense as with falling housing prices, it will be very difficult for the Bank of Canada to actually meet a 2% target, even if they lower rates to 0% and engage in moderate amounts of QE and NIRP.

The other implication of very low GoC yields going forward is that people are buying them in anticipation of likely appreciation in the Canadian dollar, another consequence of low inflation/deflation that is expected in Canada. So the lack of interest one receives on a GoC bond is “made up” for in terms of currency appreciation.

Things can change though, but the bond market is basically painting a picture of mild deflation in Canada literally for a good chunk of the next 30 years. Either the bond market is spectacularly wrong, or Canadian kids really don’t have a lot good to look forward to economy-wise. As always, the truth is somewhere in the middle.

#63 Jungle on 06.18.17 at 10:16 pm

Not selling US stocks. Employment at all time high, profits ARE growing, economy still healthy and GROWING.

It’s about the proper weighting, not exiting an asset class. — Garth

#64 Capt. Serious on 06.18.17 at 10:17 pm

#49 Wrk.dover on 06.18.17 at 8:49 pm
Investment, fools toy, or whatever you see it as, the trouble with a fast car is the stunting law. If they don’t confiscate the thing, they still jack your premiums…on all of your cars, for six years.

I sold my grossly over powered ground pounder fifteen years ago, before they got to pull me over. Another thing for the millenials not to enjoy, 0-100 mph and back to 0 in half a minute, and not much problem if caught doing it back then.

Video games don’t do G force.

Um, track days would be the answer to this.

#65 Ace Goodheart on 06.18.17 at 10:19 pm

My worry with Trump is that he may support the causes he thinks he opposes. There is this violence against socialism in the world right now and Trump is more aligned with it than he knows.

#66 Staying the Course on 06.18.17 at 10:22 pm

Just in case any of you in 604 missed this article the other day in the Vancouver Sun: Risky mortgages, shadow bankers threaten Vancouver housing market’s stability (part 1 of 2 part series).

Tipping point?

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-real-estate-in-the-red

#67 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 06.18.17 at 10:24 pm

Vancouver you have been exposed. You know what comes next.
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/regulator-tracks-rise-in-mortgage-fraud-complaints-in-b-c-as-house-prices-jump

Happy Housing Crash Vancouver!

#68 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 06.18.17 at 10:30 pm

All the big Banks in the GTA are increasing fees on almost everything. Word is CMHC is No longer excepting fraudulent mortgages like they have for past 10years. Now that the mortgage cash cow is ending they are looking for other sources of revenue. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! Btw nothing is selling. For sales signs everywhere. You hear people on the train, bus , and work water cooler conplaining they bought during the peak and now cant sell their home as it rots on the market. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#69 Figure it out on 06.18.17 at 10:32 pm

This again? Show me a country’s expected population growth, dependency ratio, and debt in the government, corporate and household sectors, and I’ll tell you what’s going to happen economically. Show me who won their last election and I’ll tell you how the Monday morning quarterbacks will “explain” what happens economically.

#70 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 06.18.17 at 10:33 pm

“Nobody knows where this will end. Trump may survive four (or eight) years and make America great again. Or he might quit, be impeached, blow up.”–Garth

It is highly unlikely that President Donald J. Trump will quit. He wrote the book on Surviving at the Top, as well as Think Big, Think Like a Champion, and Never Give Up. Quitting is for Canadians like Kevin O’Leary, who did not even finish running for the leadership of the Conservative party, much less the leadership of the country. Kevin did not seem to know that winners never quit, and that quitters never win. He lacked the important quality of perseverance. That is why The Donald is so successful while Kevin is not. Kevin did not love Canada enough to fight for it. The Donald loved the USA enough to go all the way. And that is the cold, hard truth.

The Donald gave Americans a noticeable alternative choice at election time. Kevin did not offer Canadians any significant policy difference. For example, when Liberal party leader Justin Trudeau threw his support behind homosexuality, transvestitism, and gender confusion, Kevin O’Leary had a golden opportunity to distinguish himself by standing up for good old-fashion morality. Instead, he just offered even more of the same. In fact, he even tried to one-up Justin. Kevin infamously said that as long as people are happy, he does not care if they “marry a goat.” While supporting bestiality might not seem like the most dignified platform to run on, maybe it could have worked in a country like Canada. It could have been marketed as “progressive.” The fact, though, is that many women claim to be married already to “old goats” and have not found it to make them especially happy.

The Donald’s only really serious problem is the endless stream of dastardly and unscrupulous politicians, backed up by noisy fake media, trying to stab him in the back and pull the rug out from under his feet to obstruct his plans to make America great again. His insane enemies without a cause rage away continually because they want to be in power so they can carry out their own agenda of trying to destroy apple pie, motherhood, and America. When the American people overwhelmingly voted for Trump’s good agenda, the Demonrats became totally unhinged and tried to riot until Trump would carry out their own bad agenda for them instead. They found it difficult to accept that they are a bunch of losers who cannot always have everything their own wrong way. Hopefully, most of them will remember to take their medications so they do not go around shooting everyone they disagree with.

Yet another recent news blurb went blubbering on about how “200 lawmakers” were planning to sue The Donald. Now that is precisely why it takes a real man like The Donald to persevere and get things done in spite of all the senseless opposition. This is probably all just “par for the course” to The Donald, the professional golfer and world’s greatest golf course builder.

As God’s own humble servant President Donald J. Trump works diligently and faithfully to make God’s most favored nation great again, and again, and again, some bad people just cannot stand it. It drives them even crazier than they were to begin with–and they were pretty crazy to begin with. When President Trump boldly declared in his message to a joint session of congress that, “most of all, we will be protected by God!” it probably dismayed all the wicked and made their bitter little hearts shrivel up within them. That could explain why they are so heartless.

#71 Baa, baa, baa on 06.18.17 at 10:41 pm

Sheep will be sheep. MSM and now you on the anti Trump train- Give me a break everything the corrupt leaders of the western countries are a bunch of traitors and sellouts, especially our useless boy wonder PM. Paris accord, migrants and everything they do is to break the will of the people that pay taxes and allows them to transfer wealth to the so called developing countries like China and India- what a complete corrupt scam!

#72 Mark on 06.18.17 at 10:44 pm

“Get real folks … everything is overvalued, all at the same time. Excessive liquidity has pushed up values for every thing out there. Something will come along an trigger another “crisis”, and there will be no place to hide!”

Canadian stocks (ie: the TSX) have gone nowhere in 9 years. So its pretty hard to make the argument that excessive liquidity has pushed up prices on “every thing out there”.

Doesn’t seem to be that bad of a place to hide, at least from my perspective. Dividends keep growing as well quite nicely.

The TSX gained double-digits last year. — Garth

#73 nothing to see here folks on 06.18.17 at 10:47 pm

Vancouver you have been exposed. You know what comes next.
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/regulator-tracks-rise-in-mortgage-fraud-complaints-in-b-c-as-house-prices-jump

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I guess the government is going to have bail this whole mess out.
As per usual.
After all, its different here.
Homeowners have to be protected though.
Just wait and see.
It won’t take long for T2 to announce mortgagee bailouts.
Put this note on your fridge folks so when it happens you won’t puke all over the comp screen.

#74 Smoking Man on 06.18.17 at 10:51 pm

On the Donald.

You blog dogs ever ask you’re how I perfectly called the Republican race and the Trumpster getting the white house.

Surprised me too, I think I had help, that UFO that flew over my house 6 years you had something to do with it. That orange plasma flier, there is a connection via the UCC I’m sure of it.

But that don’t matter, Trump is the last man standing to take on the globalists Communists.

In Canada, Bill C-16 passes the Senate
People that Identify as Trans make up a tiny percentage of the population 0.004% It’s probably a lot lower, but you know the loony left may see it as a fashion statement and slap on some lipstick just to feel included.

In Ontario there is legislation on the books, you’re a parent and say your son’s teacher attempts to emasculate him, suggests he is better off as a girl. He tells you and you say, “Don’t be ridiculous,” he tells his teacher what you said. Boom the state will take away your kid. Not making this up, its the law.

Bill C -16 makes it a crime not to address a Trans person with their desired pronoun. You can be brought up, fined and lectured by a human rights tribunal and if you refuse to comply, you can be charged with contempt of court and sent to prison. In other words, government-sanctioned speech.

The majority of trans people could care less about pronouns. That’s why this is so sinister.
Why go to all this trouble is what I keep asking myself.

I figured it out. Like I always figure out shit.

This is a just a stepping stone by some evil little bastards, dip the toe in the water and feel it out.

Trudeau having too many AH, OH, AH’s between his ears don’t get it, his party full of snake oil salesmen with retarded ideas and their violent followers that have no idea what’s at play here.

The big agenda is for one world, tyrannical, communist government that wants to take all your wealth and give it to other countries while raking in huge commission checks.

Don’t be surprised if in the not too distant future the questioning of man-made climate change will be legislated the same way in Canada. The useless eaters at the United Nations are making cultural appropriation a crime for christ sake.

It’s not enough for these lefty swine to steal all your loot, they demand you to thank them for it.

Not I, Sorry

#75 Linda on 06.18.17 at 11:04 pm

‘Just don’t bet on him’. Excellent advice, though some might argue it is a sure bet he will tweet at will. If one could just predict what company he will get mad at next, one could possibly reap some fast profits.

#31 – you reap what you sow. For eight years the right picked on the previous POTUS & now the trend continues because its the new normal. Not even his greatest supporters can claim ‘the Donald’ doesn’t provide plenty of opportunities for nitpicking, satire & plenty of smoke of the impeachment kind.

#76 Smoking Man on 06.18.17 at 11:16 pm

I love Roger Waters, but he’s lost his mind and his way.

I got no problem with him helping out the Palestinians, the wall.

But to put “Resist” tee shirts of kids that sing a stage his songs is deplorable.

Resist means kill free speech, that’s what’s at play here. The idiot doesn’t see it. I still love him.

The old man quit drinking and smoking, went to the Democratic dark side that is more of a Stalin party than a Kennedy party.

He’s peaked a long time ago. Regurgitating songs of my youth that kept me from killing myself when things got tough, and I still listen to them when I’m down.

I’m still going to show in October in Toronto.

But man has he lost his way, dementia sinking in I’m thinking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGmIL2gtieU

#77 Kothar on 06.18.17 at 11:36 pm

TSX is now negative for 2017….compared to other world stock markets which are up.

#78 The American on 06.19.17 at 12:01 am

At #70: Geeeezus Christ, dude… have you been living under a rock? You said, “When the American people overwhelmingly voted for Trump’s good agenda, the Demonrats became totally unhinged and tried to riot until Trump would carry out their own bad agenda for them instead.”

You are aware he lost the popular vote by the largest margin in U.S. history, right? The American people did not overwhelming vote for this idiot’s agenda whatsoever.

#79 TnT on 06.19.17 at 12:06 am

#70 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 06.18.17 at 10:33 pm

As God’s own humble servant President Donald J. Trump works diligently and faithfully

So.. answer this question honestly to yourself…. I don’t care to know your answer.

Would you leave your daughter alone with Donald J Trump? He is as you say God’s own humble servant.

#80 Rd on 06.19.17 at 12:22 am

DELETED

#81 Fed-up on 06.19.17 at 12:37 am

The TSX gained double-digits last year. — Garth

———————————————————————

After stinking up the markets in 2015.

Smoke and mirrors.

#82 Fed-up on 06.19.17 at 12:44 am

36 No Bubble Trouble on 06.18.17 at 7:38 pm

Save this post and pin it on your fridge to remind yourselves that this is not a bubble but an equalization of international house prices in all desirable cities…yes, Toronto is desirable folks, sorry but true.

——————————————————————

You really should travel more.

#83 yorkville renter on 06.19.17 at 12:49 am

Trump is a twit. “Rob Ford on Steroids” is a perfect analogy.

The US is a swamp, but Trump isnt the guy to fix it.

Trump probably does love America, but only second to Trump… and money… and his ego… and golf

#84 PGer on 06.19.17 at 1:09 am

The sheeple have to learn one thing – go against the grain. Bought PEP-N when the Cdn dollar was 1.05 US and when PEP was $70 US. PEP now 1.16 US and the Cdn “dollar” now about 0 .75. And to boot a decent dividend! Do the math.

If there was something I could invest in to short the Cnd housing market, I would (only 1 way to go – and that is doooownnn, severely).

#85 Fake Money worse than fake news on 06.19.17 at 1:11 am

“These properties in Vancouver are so expensive that you need people either laundering money or loan fraud or people borrowing such large amounts of money that should never be allowed, in order to keep it going,” MacBeth said. “If everyone is reporting their incomes honestly in Vancouver, there is no way that housing prices can stay where they are.” And yet, as we showed in early June, the world’s biggest real estate bubble, Vancouver home prices, just hit new all time highs despite last year’s 15% property tax targeting foreign buyers, an attempt to rein in the market.”
Hilliard MacBeth

#86 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.19.17 at 1:30 am

DELETED

#87 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.19.17 at 1:36 am

Hey Smokey, how about the new law gets used against the system.
I interpret this law to mean that none of them (transgendered) can be sent to prison since there are no prisons for transgendered people (only men’s prison’s and women’s prisons). If you’re on the jury deciding the fate of a transgendered person you’d better acquit them or you are in violation of their rights (forcing them into a prison which is not for their gender and almost certainly ending up subjecting them to violence and other hate crimes). This law makes it that the rights of transgendered people is paramount. If I am on their jury they will get a free pass. This is the first step in disestablishing the corrupt, criminal, abusive, illegitimate power system as it has existed for a thousand years. Transgendered persons are now the first group of people exempt from prosecution, if they only realized the significance of this legislation. Now I hope we’ll see them being able to protect themselves from attacks by carrying firearms. I hope the police realize that this means that if they don’t use the proper nomenclature when addressing a suspect they are putting under arrest that their act becomes totally illegitimate at that point. This applies to judges too; if they fail to address the defendant as they request the judge and the court lose all legitimacy fom that point forward, not just for the case at hand. It is also the duty of all Canadians under this law as well as under the ‘duty of care’ laws to take proactive measures to ensure that no transgendered person be treated in any way that they deem to be unfair, including treatment from the police, CPS workers, judges, etc.

#88 Where's The Money Guido? on 06.19.17 at 2:27 am

Re: #20 akashic record on 06.18.17 at 6:01 pm

It is a risky game to create this power vacuum, emotions can get out of control and lead to civil war in no time.

Exactly what they so they can enact legislation to take away their guns and game over!!

#89 Lady Jane on 06.19.17 at 2:40 am

The fact that people either love or hate Trump with seemingly no in between reminds me of Stephen King’s 1978 book called The Stand. After a pandemic kills 99.4% of the world’s population and the ensuing apocalypse occurs, means of communications are down or lost and survivors try to band together. They split into two factions and seek to either congregate in Boulder Colorado drawn by shared telepathic dreams with an elderly black woman, Abigail Fremantle where they strive to reestablish a democratic society called the Free-Zone or they feel compelled to congregate in Las Vegas where they are drawn by the spell of Randall Flagg, an evil being who is brutally tyrannical and wishes to exert his power through a weapons program and executions to quell dissent.

This is just a very short synopsis of a very good book (a classic, if you will) by a master of the craft. If you haven’t read it, you should avail yourself of it as a great summer read. The parallels between the book and the way that Trump and the two opposing political factions of the day have clearly divided the country into two warring camps are positively spooky. I myself am in Abigail Freemantle’s camp and Randall Flagg can go __ ___…well you know what I mean. I just can’t wrap my head around the Flaggsters ways of thinking. I want to live in the ‘Free-zone’.

#90 Dan.t on 06.19.17 at 2:54 am

I guess I’ll have to tread lightly here now since my last comment was banned for suggesting massive fraud in YVR real estate with virtually no desire to stop it and foreign money and other illicit money flooding into YVR pushing out locals was way off base …I guess.

Funny, I guess the sun articles are delusional too.

Fine, excellent job policy makers. Now that the average home price in Agassi, chilliwack, Abotsford are over 700k and 1.7 mil anywhere within a 1 hr drive to YVR and rents are insane, condo prices criminal, we can find more ways to ramp up speculation, and hopefully find More offshore money to keep things going.

We shouldn’t try to hard to crack down on “suspect ” dealings because we don’t want to mess with people’s hard earned equity. Who cares about young families, they should have bought 15 years ago!

Good job real estate board, way to self regulate!

So now all of a sudden this is all an issue? It’s been going on for years. Oh right, not the Canadian way to make a fuss. Just take it and like it. Things are obviously going well in BC and everyone is super rich… or is it all debt?

#91 Bonny on 06.19.17 at 5:34 am

I can’t believe I’m actually considering a GIC. I’ve got lots in the market in stocks and etf and have a fairly large chunk in my chequing account. Mark Cuban says sit on cash until there is an opportunity, so I’ll guess I’ll take 0.001 90 day GIC lol how sad probably not even worth it.

#92 Bonny on 06.19.17 at 5:37 am

Off topic but today I had a good laugh. Last month I used $4 of electricity but was charged $32 for “delivery”. Perhaps time to move back to Quebec.

#93 I hear you #55 Russ... on 06.19.17 at 5:46 am

I know that Russ but you are missing the point of my post.

I suspect that the Softwood Lumber Tariff is the first broadside.

Trump has not delivered on his promise of ripping up trade treaties. This may just be the start of unilateral US action tarrifing anything they see as unfair, treaty or no treaty, and as for Trump – he is unpredictable and Wilbur Ross, a shark.

What can we do?

Not a lot, they are 10X our size and largest trading partner…well, just spend a whole lot more money supporting industry sectors that are tarrifed.

#94 A Reply to #75 Linda on 06.19.17 at 6:12 am

“If one could just predict what company [Trump] will get mad at next, one could possibly reap some fast profits.”

Apps have already been created. “To help retail investors respond more rapidly to these share price movements, Trigger developed ‘Trump Triggers’ to notify its users when Trump tweets about a particular stock … Trigger is not the only company that monitors the intersection of social media and the stock market. Competition includes Dataminr, StockTwits and Motif Investing, among other companies.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2017/01/17/trump-tweets-trigger-finance/#631fee2f3842

#95 pBrasseur on 06.19.17 at 6:35 am

Politicians, including Trump don’t deliver growth, they may think they do but the don’t. But they certainly can impede it.

The rally is not about Trump, markets are just relieved that it’s not another anti business democrat running the executive branch.

#96 Wrk.dover on 06.19.17 at 6:57 am

#64 Capt. Serious on 06.18.17 at 10:17 pm

Um, track days would be the answer to this.

———————————————

I got up at 5 AM and drove four hours to the strip once for an open house welcome all comers day, uncorked the exhaust and had a glorious time, first run smoked both tires the full 1/4 mile and still only had it doing 60 in the speed trap at the end. After that I watched the tach to be sure the tires weren’t running away from me, and blew the doors off the cars staged beside me, one after another, all day.

It’s interesting that that is the way that I am supposed to enjoy a fast car, yet I have to hear jackasses on straight pipe motorcycles for a full minute every time one goes by my super insulated R2000 home 500 feet from the coastal highway.

Every day was track day in the country side before stunting laws. I’d rather nail it on the highway ramp than commute four hours to a track. It’s all over now. My only high powered after market engine is in a 3/4 ton camper van that I aptly named Hotel Hammer Lane.

#97 Financial Man on 06.19.17 at 7:36 am

Can we return to comments about finance and housing instead of attacking or supporting an American politician. Thanks.

#98 Financial Man on 06.19.17 at 7:42 am

I still do not believe Poloz will ever raise rates. That’s the one and only thing that will murder real estate, and therefore the Cdn economy. In Canada I swear the whole purpose of his job is to do nothing. Sometimes he talks a bit or says rates may go up but ultimately he does nothing.

Question – when will Canada be forced to raise rates? How much divergence with the Fed can we handle economically?

#99 Financial Man on 06.19.17 at 7:45 am

I know thy base their rate decision on inflation but what is included in inflation? Nothing that matters to Canadians on a day to day basis – not good, not shelter, not fuel. They’ve removed all those from the calculation so all that is left in their basket for core inflation is socket wrenches and hand cream.

#100 Figure it out on 06.19.17 at 7:53 am

#78 The American — “You are aware he lost the popular vote by the largest margin in U.S. history, right? The American people did not overwhelming vote for this idiot’s agenda whatsoever.”

Yes, yes, thank you for pointing that out. Thanks also for explaining to all us dumb Canadians last year who saw a likely Trump victory that we just didn’t understand the Electoral College.

#101 maxx on 06.19.17 at 7:56 am

#14 jess on 06.18.17 at 4:56 pm

“liar loans in china
developers trying to sell their projects”

They’d better do it quickly – cardboard doesn’t hold up too well over time…….

#102 Figure it out on 06.19.17 at 8:02 am

#78 The American — “You are aware he lost the popular vote by the largest margin in U.S. history, right?”

Hey, turns out that isn’t true either! Fact checking you is an interesting way of learning American historical trivia.

#103 NoName on 06.19.17 at 8:16 am

Press play!
Cage The Elephant – Ain’t No Rest For The Wicked

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U631FGnXDXY

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.19.17 at 8:19 am

@#38 cd
“The Donald’s birthday this past week. He’s the ripe age of 75 now….”
+++++

Hey! More “fake news” about the Donald. So bad. So terrible.

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.19.17 at 8:30 am

@#70 Totally biased, highly unintelligent, irrational propagandist
#######
No tax reforms yet.
No “Wall” yet.
Bills delayed.
Son in Law investigated.
Aimless staff unable to hire anyone.
Criminal investigations ramping up.
Impeachment proceedings looming.
Alienated NATO and UN leadership allies.
Sells billions of weapons contracts to middle east dictators.
STILL blaming “crooked Hillary” for his latest troubles.

Apparently senility wasnt an exclusive trait of Ronald Regan

#106 Victor V on 06.19.17 at 8:55 am

#79 TnT on 06.19.17 at 12:06 am

#70 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 06.18.17 at 10:33 pm

As God’s own humble servant President Donald J. Trump works diligently and faithfully

So.. answer this question honestly to yourself…. I don’t care to know your answer.

Would you leave your daughter alone with Donald J Trump? He is as you say God’s own humble servant.

===========

Would you leave your daughter alone with Bill Clinton?

Let’s get back to financial, economic and housing issues, shall we? — Garth

#107 Steven Patterson on 06.19.17 at 9:00 am

Wait ! Im pretty sure “as goes the US” so goes Europe and definitely so goes Canada. Why would anyone tweek into the weaker markets ? Unless you see the US losing its reserve currency status sometime soon switching to weaker markets that are highly US dependent does not sound like a smart trade. Sure they may outperform for a quarter or 2 but beyond that good luck. Tom is actually the smarter guy staying the course all he should do is buy some long term puts as a hedge.

#108 NewWorldPartyDotOrg on 06.19.17 at 9:24 am

One should learn something from 9 years of this blog: Do Not Try to Pick the Peak.

One should learn something from the past 2 years: Media has been LYING through their teeth about everything: Outcome of election, Islam, Terrorist attacks, Sweden, Economy, Trade, Stock Market, illegal immigrants, Mexico and on and on and on.

Last year, NewsWeek editor told everyone to sell their stocks because of Trump.

Trump-haters, who trade on emotions, haven’t stopped telling people to sell their stocks because of Trump. Garth is one of them.

#109 NewWorldPartyDotOrg on 06.19.17 at 9:35 am

crowdedelevatorfartz:

“Son in Law investigated.”

They would investigate Baron Trump if they could.

“Aimless staff unable to hire anyone.”

Trump has already said many times that he doesn’t want to fill a lot of positions in the bloated government. For those that he wants to, the Dems are obstructing.

“Criminal investigations ramping up.”

Yes, they are for the leakers.

“Impeachment proceedings looming.”

You should hope that you don’t die of old age before this happens. Meanwhile, you’ll be drowning in kool-aid from the media.

“Alienated NATO and UN leadership allies.”

Trump should get NATO and UN to pivot. Cold war has been over for decades. The real enemy is ISIS.

“STILL blaming “crooked Hillary” for his latest troubles.””

Thanks to Hillary and Obama, 40,000 Muslims were killed in Libya, 400,000 Muslims were killed in Syria and 4.8 million Muslim refugees created.

Gaddafi told the West that he is the cork on Africa. If he is removed, migrants will go through Libya to flood Europe. He said Europe will be conquered by Muslims without firing a single shot. Pentagon told Hillary to not remove Gaddafi as this would leave the country in chaos, operated by Jihadis. She wouldn’t listen. Now, ISIS is chopping heads in Libya. If I was European, I’d be furious at Hillary and Obama. Obama funded rebel groups AQI and ISI, which exacerbated the Syrian war. They didn’t want democracy. They wanted an Islamic State with Sharia Law. Later, they morphed into ISIS. Now ISIS is in 32 countries including Canada.

Where is the media criticism? Where is your criticism?

Where are the Muslim-loving protestors?

#110 Mortgage Fraud on 06.19.17 at 9:36 am

Is David Taylor managing your money? If so, take the money you made in the last couple of weeks due to HCG and run. You WILL lose it all because as this clown has stated, “We are not exiting our position”. Pigs get slaughtered. You have been warned.

#111 Hollywood Jack on 06.19.17 at 9:46 am

lol boys and girls.

Funny to listen the arguing over a diversified weighing in your portfolio of about 5% haha

If you want to make a financial difference in your life you have to learn to swing trade individual stocks, the current record holder turned 10K into 18 million in 2 years – now that’s worth pursuing…..but it takes WORK! Dan Zanger also says “balanced” and “diversified” portfolios are for lazy people.

Anywho, you can’t play assets based on just fundamentals anymore, so many have been wrong about the DOW since Trumps election, it was suppose to go down when trump got elected, then the pundits will give you reasons it went up….after the fact!

What most will never understand is in a rising rate environment capital is pulling out of the bond market and heading into private assets instead, that’s why the DOW will keep going, regardless of valuations and company profits!

The 30 year bond bull is over, the equity bull has just begun.

#112 NewWorldPartyDotOrg on 06.19.17 at 9:49 am

Ace Goodheart:

“There is this violence against socialism in the world right now and Trump is more aligned with it than he knows.”

The violence has usually come from the left and still is:

– Last year, DNC hired goons to incite violence at Trump’s rallies
– Trump haters were beating up Trump supporters throughout the country after the election
– Antifa riots, burns cars and stores, beats up Trump supporters or anyone who disagrees with them
– Hodginson shot Republicans
– Griffin, Madonna, DeNiro, Snoop Dog, The Wire, Julia Caesar play and even Loretta Lynch have all advocated violence

The left does not believe in democracy:

Left and media in 2016: Trump must accept election results!!!
Left and media in 2017: F*****k election results!!!

Thanks to Obama’s socialism, he has stolen $9.6 trillion from children and the unborn.

#113 Penny Henny on 06.19.17 at 9:50 am

Hey Smokie,
you ever wonder why that apartment building in London didn’t collapse like building 7?

#114 IHCTD9 on 06.19.17 at 9:59 am

#100 Figure it out on 06.19.17 at 7:53 am
#78 The American — “You are aware he lost the popular vote by the largest margin in U.S. history, right? The American people did not overwhelming vote for this idiot’s agenda whatsoever.”

Yes, yes, thank you for pointing that out. Thanks also for explaining to all us dumb Canadians last year who saw a likely Trump victory that we just didn’t understand the Electoral College.
_____________________________________

I recall that too. There was one excuse after another how Trump wouldn’t/couldn’t win – until he did. All us douchebag Canadians sure had a lot to learn about US politics…

#115 Freedumb on 06.19.17 at 10:13 am

#97 Financial Man on 06.19.17 at 7:36 am

Can we return to comments about finance and housing instead of attacking or supporting an American politician. Thanks.

=

I live in a house and have lots and lots and lots and lots of money.

#116 Fact Checker on 06.19.17 at 10:18 am

#78 The American on 06.19.17 at 12:01 am
#100 Figure it out on 06.19.17 at 7:53 am
#102 Figure it out on 06.19.17 at 8:02 am

The American: “You are aware [Trump] lost the popular vote by the largest margin in U.S. history, right? The American people did not overwhelming vote for this idiot’s agenda whatsoever.”

Figure It Out: “Hey, turns out that isn’t true either! Fact checking you is an interesting way of learning American historical trivia.”

I think what The American meant to say was this: Of all the U.S. presidential elections in which the winner lost the popular vote, Trump lost by the largest margin. Fact.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote

#117 Smoking Man on 06.19.17 at 10:25 am

Jordan Peterson nails it perfectly. Warning! if you are a radical post modernist lonny SJW. Do not follow the link. The pure logic delivered may make your head explode.

https://youtu.be/xinUdW7iZ78

#118 IHCTD9 on 06.19.17 at 10:31 am

#49 Wrk.dover on 06.18.17 at 8:49 pm
Investment, fools toy, or whatever you see it as, the trouble with a fast car is the stunting law. If they don’t confiscate the thing, they still jack your premiums…on all of your cars, for six years.

I sold my grossly over powered ground pounder fifteen years ago, before they got to pull me over. Another thing for the millenials not to enjoy, 0-100 mph and back to 0 in half a minute, and not much problem if caught doing it back then.

Video games don’t do G force.
____________________________________________

I finally threw in the towel on a highly modded car about 4 years ago. I had/have an ’84GT street car, 11:1 306, huge cam, cheater plate pilled at 150, 4:11 gears in an 8.8 swap, 10 second car. Prior owner ran it a lot at “Woodbridge Raceway” from what I’ve been told.

It had an off road pipe with flowmaster 2 chambers, loud paint, Cragar Draglites, barely ran at all at 800 rpm. I started selling stuff off in 07 and never quit. All I’ve got today is the carcass of the ’84, and a few misc parts of other fast cars and trucks of my youth.

Can you imagine driving a car like this on the street today?

JUST FORGET IT. You wouldn’t even make it to the track to race it legally.

Everything was fine until those ******* Fast and Furious movies came out. That is when the down hill started. Now here we are, squeal the tires and you could get your car confiscated, license taken, $10,000 fine, 6 years of facility insurance, and a big bill at the impound to get your car back.

No thanks..

The old car forums I joined going back to the beginnings of the internet are dead as a doornail, I almost never see a 1st gen 5.0 out driving around anymore. Hobby has essentially been destroyed by government, at least in southern Ontario.

I’ll miss it, nothing like an absurdly powerful street car to take your mind off work :).

#119 Smoking Man on 06.19.17 at 10:53 am

Why communism sucks.
https://youtu.be/xinUdW7iZ78

#120 IHCTD9 on 06.19.17 at 10:54 am

#64 Capt. Serious on 06.18.17 at 10:17 pm

Um, track days would be the answer to this.
_________________________________________

I wouldn’t get there without being pulled over and fined 10X. Car’s got none of the emissions equipment, Car had N2O system, loud exhaust, obnoxious demeanor. Between the Smog Patrol, MTO, and OPP, It would be a miracle if I actually made it to the track gates.

The above could be handled with a revamp of the powertrain, and putting emissions equipment in place, different power adder etc.. Basically parting out the car and starting over.

But even still, to go to a track day, your car needs to be insured. Go tell your insurance company about all the modifications you did to your car, and you’re not going anywhere down any public highway with coverage from them.

That leaves you with two choices

1. Lie to you insurance Co, and roll the dice with the 3 provincial authorities that could trailer your car away.

2. Buy a truck and trailer and haul your off road track car to events around the Province once a month.

Nothing beats a fast car on the street. Track days are good for T+T and getting numbers, but even a 3200 lbs foxbody with 600+ hp seems tame at the track.

#121 Russia-U.S. Tensions on 06.19.17 at 11:18 am

MOSCOW — Russia on Monday angrily condemned the downing of a Syrian aircraft by a U.S. fighter as a “flagrant violation of international law,” and said its forces will treat U.S.-led coalition aircraft and drones as targets if they are operating in Syrian airspace west of the Euphrates while Russian aviation is on combat missions.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-threatens-to-treat-us-coalition-aircraft-as-targets-over-syria/2017/06/19/95e87428-54ca-11e7-9e18-968f6ad1e1d3_story.html?utm_term=.2df709b883a7

#122 IHCTD9 on 06.19.17 at 11:28 am

#111 Hollywood Jack on 06.19.17 at 9:46 am

Dan Zanger also says “balanced” and “diversified” portfolios are for lazy people.
________________________________________

That’s me. That’s probably most of us. I like heavy equipment, ATV’s, avoiding high taxation, and building things from wood and steel. Investing? No way, don’t have the head for it, won’t ever be good at it, leave it to others.

I realize it’s a necessity, so I get it done. But I’ll never be trying to collect the knowledge required – never mind the enthusiasm – to ever be any good at it myself.

It’s like me asking you to change out the steering clutches in my ’59 TD9-91 track loader. You wouldn’t have a clue what to do, and could hardly bring yourself to learn what is needed in order to do the job because you could care less. You’d be a fool to dive in without the requisite knowledge, and you’d be doomed to fail if you did.

That’s me when it comes to investing!

#123 Headhunter on 06.19.17 at 11:29 am

Re. There’s no Replacement for Displacement.
#33 Turner nation

We see boomers lusting over Covettes on here.
Do not forget rule #2: If it Flys, Floats or Flaunts then Rent it

#64 Capt. Serious on 06.18.17 at 10:17 pm

Um, track days would be the answer to this.

—————————————————–
1st to Turner Nation… lusting may be a strong word for wanting to drive a sports car. They are not at all expensive maybe some just cant afford it. Dont get angry at me as dont make the rules

As far as the heavy muscle cars off the roads I agree. Go to any show and shine and the guys are all balding or grey. Not to much young blood. Hard for a kid to tinker with a ride these days. Automakers dont want the small shops around either

Who is going to be next in line to buy the classic cars?

#124 Lillooet, BC on 06.19.17 at 11:34 am

#73 InvestorsFriend on 06.18.17 at 12:24 pm
The S&P 500 has performed well over almost all 10 year periods.

*****

Seems you like individual stocks
was curious if you have any exposure to a broad index ETF?

CWB is going well.

#125 Lillooet, BC on 06.19.17 at 11:44 am

Buffett has always warned against bet on USA.

#126 TEMPLE on 06.19.17 at 11:53 am

“#16 lala on 06.18.17 at 5:05 pm”

This is a particularly low class comment that I guess snuck through because of the slightly obscure slang. I am surprised that you let this clown escape the ban-hammer, Garth! I’m offended on your behalf.

Me, too. Now deleted. — Garth

#127 Ole Doberman on 06.19.17 at 11:55 am

#7 greyhound on 06.18.17 at 4:00 pm
Stan Druckenmiller is arguably one of the brightest & most successful investors in North America. Tom might want to listen to what he said at the sohn conference:
“The conference wants a specific recommendation from me. I guess ‘Get out of the stock market’ isn’t clear enough.”
——————————————————–
Yep aren’t they all when they get one right, of course then everyone follows for the next big call and they up being wrong this time while lots lose their shirts.

The stock markets will be like Canadian RE last 5 years, everyone calling for a top and correction that never have seem to come.

#128 isuckless on 06.19.17 at 11:55 am

Stupid Americans talking about housing bubble.
They don’t know what a housing bubble is, Canadians do.
We are better!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-19/hanson-housing-bubble-20-end-nigh

#129 Ole Doberman on 06.19.17 at 11:58 am

#119 Smoking Man on 06.19.17 at 10:53 am

Why communism sucks.
https://youtu.be/xinUdW7iZ78
——————————————————–
Smokey communism leads to alcoholism, no incentive for creativity, just a mundane existence.

Since you’re one of the greatest minds of our time – what are your thoughts on this philosophy?

#130 MF on 06.19.17 at 12:07 pm

The market? Yeah right. The same market that assumed Trump had a 18% chance of winning? I remember reading post after post about how it was safe to assume another Democrat victory as well. How did that go?

Anyways, I think Trump is putting the US first and everyone who wants to see the US fail, or is a socialist at heart, is the most vocal about their disapproval of him.

MF

Markets care about making money, not left vs right. — Garth

#131 Where's The Money Guido? on 06.19.17 at 12:13 pm

Part 2 of the Vancouver mortgage fraud expose: http://www.theprovince.com/news/local+news/regulator+tracks+rise+mortgage+fraud+complaints+house+prices/13456427/story.html
Part 1: http://vancouversun.com/storyline/risky-mortgages-shadow-bankers-threaten-vancouver-housing-markets-stability

http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/bcsc-alleges-fraud-against-three-bc-men-and-two-mortgage-investment-corporations-628912363.html

#132 Smoking Man on 06.19.17 at 12:14 pm

#113 Penny Henny on 06.19.17 at 9:50 am
Hey Smokie,
you ever wonder why that apartment building in London didn’t collapse like building 7?
…..

No kidding, whats the point of even talking about it. Those families will never get justice. Was hoping the trumpster would make sure these swine would hang. But with the post modernist commies all over him. Its not going to happen.

It is what it is.

#133 jess on 06.19.17 at 12:14 pm

39 Down and Out on 06.18.17 at 7:59 pm

china

the circle of life
sixty storied structure made from 3000tons ofsteel @16m. to build for tourist yet to com

ring of life’ in fushun is a 157-meter diameter metal ring made using 3,000 tons of steel, illuminated by 12,000 individual LED lights in what will most likely be a very coordinated impressive light show,complete with four elevators to help visitors to the top. the 16-million dollar structure : a site-seeing monument.

The building has been designed by Italian architect Joseph di Pasquale, The total height is 138 meters for 33 stories,[5] 85.000 square metres of floor area and about 1 billion RMB[6][7] (70 million dollars) of global investment.
0:03 / 1:26
Building That Looks Like Chinese Coin Completes Construction
circle in a square “the copper coin”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QagYNcCm2GU

==========
Inside China’s ghost towns: ‘Developers run out of money’
With the Chinese economy faltering, entire neighbourhoods have become ghost towns, industrial companies sit idle and the unemployed are growing desperate.

http://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/asia/2016/09/china-ghost-towns-developers-run-money-160914084316042.html

#134 MF on 06.19.17 at 12:14 pm

#116 Fact Checker

The electoral college, created to ensure California and New York do not elect endless Democrat governments and create a socialist dictatorship, determines the presidency. Fact.

MF

#135 MF on 06.19.17 at 12:20 pm

“Markets care about making money, not left vs right. — Garth”

And the stock market just reached another all time high last week.

MF

#136 Smoking Man on 06.19.17 at 12:20 pm

Markets care about making money, not left vs right. — Garth.

Garth get with the times man.

Its global corporate communists vs sovern indidualism.

#137 Calgary Rip Off on 06.19.17 at 12:33 pm

For those people who complain about the U.S. system, there is an option: Leave.

I did that in 2003 and havent been back. The US system is flawed in that it has only two parties. That is totally lame.

Hillary was an embarassment and not to be trusted. Trump was the only viable option. Sanders wouldve worked, but the dems didnt choose him.

So now there are the pathetic people whining about Trump. Trump this, Trump that. Certainly discretion and humility Trump doesnt have. Other than his abrasiveness what is not to like about him?

The reality is that technology has improved quality of life. Most of the people alive today, say 98%, including myself, would be dead if technology were like 100 years ago. So most people concern themselves with whining about things they cannot control. Trump got elected. Now shut up about it.

Daily I am amazed at how this world even manages to operate, at how 99% of people manage to even get their underwear/panties on correctly. The only solution is to get a ton of money and not deal with them. Until that happens I study chess and learn how to escape other peoples problems foisted on me that waste my time.

#138 TurnerNation on 06.19.17 at 12:38 pm

#74 Smoking Man – the only upside to rules like that, it prevent any type of extemist religious law from being imposed on us. Pick your poison.

Our way of life is a minority position now, you are wise to leave this country. I’ll give it some more years in the Bay. St. Tax Slave Farm.

M41ON

#139 Shawn on 06.19.17 at 12:45 pm

US stocks to outperform developed international and Canadian equities for the remainder of 2017 and into 2018.

#140 jess on 06.19.17 at 12:48 pm

https://www.cchdaily.co.uk/bahamas-set-sign-oecd-taxpayer-data-sharing-convention

…” respond to the growing problem of cross-border tax evasion and use of letter box companies. Attempts to sign up more countries were accelerated after the series of leaks of tax abuse and offshore evasion detailed in the documents revealed in the LuxLeaks and the Panama Papers, which detailed extensive use of abusive and evasive tax behaviour.”

https://www.ft.com/content/31e5cad8-4d32-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b

Privilege Wealth Notes suspended on Bermuda Stock Exchange
June 07, 2017 by David Marchant
https://twitter.com/OffshoreAlert?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

#141 Where's The Money Guido? on 06.19.17 at 1:02 pm

BC gov’t took money from industry companies to hire FICOM investigators and put it in general revenues, thereby short-changing FICOM in investigating mortgage fraud in BC.
Does anyone NOT see how sleazy the BC Lieberals are?

#142 James on 06.19.17 at 1:07 pm

#76 Smoking Man on 06.18.17 at 11:16 pm
I love Roger Waters, but he’s lost his mind and his way.
I got no problem with him helping out the Palestinians, the wall.
But to put “Resist” tee shirts of kids that sing a stage his songs is deplorable.
Resist means kill free speech, that’s what’s at play here. The idiot doesn’t see it. I still love him.
The old man quit drinking and smoking, went to the Democratic dark side that is more of a Stalin party than a Kennedy party.
He’s peaked a long time ago. Regurgitating songs of my youth that kept me from killing myself when things got tough, and I still listen to them when I’m down.
I’m still going to show in October in Toronto.
But man has he lost his way, dementia sinking in I’m thinking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGmIL2gtieU

Sorry Smoking Ass where in the English language does the definition of resist mean” kill free speech”, you idiot it actually is the opposite. You have free speech which allows you to resist what ever you believe in unless it contravenes said statute or given law as stated.

resist,

to fight against something or someone that is attacking you:
The soldiers resisted (the enemy attacks) for two days.

to refuse to accept or be changed by something:
The party leader resisted demands for his resignation.

He tried to run away from the police and was charged with resisting arrest.

The new hybrid crops are much better at resisting disease.

to stop yourself from doing something that you want to do:

I can never resist temptation/chocolate/the urge to laugh.

she couldn’t resist laughing at him in those clothes.

By the Way I thought you were moving lock, stock and barrel to Antigua after July? Finished with Canuckastan. So what, are you flying back here in October in your spaceship for a concert to see some guy you hate?
Wow you are naturally strange a true oxymoron.

#143 45north on 06.19.17 at 1:15 pm

Smoking Man: Bill C -16 makes it a crime not to address a Trans person with their desired pronoun. You can be brought up, fined and lectured by a human rights tribunal and if you refuse to comply, you can be charged with contempt of court and sent to prison. In other words, government-sanctioned speech.

resist

#144 IHCTD9 on 06.19.17 at 1:20 pm

#6 AK on 06.18.17 at 3:43 pm
“In the six months since the new presidency has begun, none of the above has happened.”
——————————————————————–
Well, 5 months tomorrow.

Give him some time. President Trump will get things done.
________________________________

Hopefully DT’s time will result in something good, and some improvements made over what Obama left him.

Unlike us up here where we would have been much further ahead if they had just cryogenically frozen Trudeau immediately upon winning the election.

#145 Wrk.dover on 06.19.17 at 1:24 pm

109 NewWorldPartyDotOrg on 06.19.17 at 9:35 am

Thanks to Hillary and Obama, 40,000 Muslims were killed in Libya, 400,000 Muslims were killed in Syria and 4.8 million Muslim refugees created.

Gaddafi told the West that he is the cork on Africa. If he is removed, migrants will go through Libya to flood Europe. He said Europe will be conquered by Muslims without firing a single shot. Pentagon told Hillary to not remove Gaddafi as this would leave the country in chaos, operated by Jihadis. She wouldn’t listen. Now, ISIS is chopping heads in Libya. If I was European, I’d be furious at Hillary and Obama. Obama funded rebel groups AQI and ISI, which exacerbated the Syrian war. They didn’t want democracy. They wanted an Islamic State with Sharia Law. Later, they morphed into ISIS. Now ISIS is in 32 countries including Canada.

——————————————–

Harper and Peter MacKay were so elated to have used OUR jets in that no exit strategy big dick strut, that they held a mission accomplished event on capital hill, as I recall. Imagine, no follow up plan after watching how well that had worked in Baghdad.

You ever think there is a master plan in place to keep the Euro from being the world currency? No tin foil in my way of thinking. Ex Goldman Draghi still in charge over there? Not much of that in the media, I don’t even know.

Investments all hinge on markets not following natural course? Of course!

#146 Wrk.dover on 06.19.17 at 1:28 pm

IHCTD9 : My favorite ZZ Top line;

” You wanna race? Let the machine speak! “

#147 Bill on 06.19.17 at 1:32 pm

I love Trump.
Is / was the ONLY chance of knocking the Gov cabal down…The only one that has the balls to stand up to the very corrupt system that bailed out Wall Street. Obama did nothing. Read some Martin Armstrong for facts not CNN…Look up the Clinton criminal foundation, They hate Trump cause they hate competition and Trump has their #..You are in the matrix of BS and everything is a racket. When you finally get your NEO moment you will realize that the banks have sold you a pile of debt you may not ever pay off…and the gov takes the first half right from the get go. You pay a none tax deductible mortgage from income you can not shelter. Do the math on the 25yrs of money that goes to the black hole matrix…..Most news is FAKE….That’s the idea, keep everyone dumbed down….Smokies got it. That’s why we don’t need to work…..All my stuff in my companies, Vehicles, meals, maintenance get paid for they tax me. Good luck and hope the wheels don’t fly off the RE Bus here in Canuckle head town.

#148 InvestorsFriend on 06.19.17 at 1:39 pm

S&P 500 Index versus Individual Stocks Question

#124 Lillooet, BC on 06.19.17 at 11:34 am asked me:

#73 InvestorsFriend on 06.18.17 at 12:24 pm
The S&P 500 has performed well over almost all 10 year periods.

*****

Seems you like individual stocks
was curious if you have any exposure to a broad index ETF?

CWB is going well.

*******************************************
I do not presently own any index funds. But I do think it is wise to hold the index in many cases. I would hold index funds if I wanted much exposure outside North America.

In my own case I have extensively studied a small number of individual stocks for many years and am comfortable with that approach and have done quite well.

Beating the index is hard. Unless someone has a rational approach to do so or access to an advisor (or adviser same word spelled differently) who seems to have a rational approach and a good track record, then broad index funds are a good idea.

I also happen to think that getting started with mutual funds from the bank or other advisors is not a bad way to start. In the beginning, getting started investing and saving a reasonable amount is the key.

Yes, I think I mentioned CWB (Canadian Western Bank, I try to avoid calling stocks by symbol, using the name reminds me it is a company not a mere squiggle on a screen) as selling too cheap on probably unfounded fears a couple weeks ago. It has bounced up a little.

Thank you for the question. I have always give only my honest thoughts and it seems to help at least a few people.

#149 CondoCitizen on 06.19.17 at 2:29 pm

Garth, this Brampton insolvency trustee administrator has some interesting tweets:

“Almost every single homeowner that files either a bankruptcy or a proposal with us is current on their mortgage. Almost always.”

“They’ll kill their grandmother to make a mortgage payment. I’ve seen people cash RRSPs to make one, use HELOC.. Delinquency #’s mean zip.”

https://twitter.com/CooperTrustee

#150 Livin Large on 06.19.17 at 2:32 pm

“Other than his abrasiveness what is not to like about him?”…. Welllllll, he has the morals of a snake, he’s a self confessed serial sexual predator, he’s a narcissist, a serial liar, not actually a particularly successful business leader although he is particularly skilled in not paying his bills, a cheat, an embezzler, a confessed (in writing) perjurer, a bigot…and that’s just off the top of my head.

#151 jess on 06.19.17 at 2:41 pm

“Even from his prison cell in Florida where he is serving a sentence of 110 years, Allen Stanford continues to haunt the money market and financial sector in the Caribbean.”

http://thevincentian.com/stanford-investor-sues-antigua-eccb-p2357-94.htm

https://www.law360.com/articles/904391/caribbean-bank-says-regulator-used-it-like-a-piggy-bank

https://www.offshorealert.com/eccb-sued-by-offshore-depositors-of-caribbean-commercial-investment-bank-alleging-fraud.aspx

#152 IHCTD9 on 06.19.17 at 2:43 pm

So, in the pursuit of taxation avoidance, and increasing independence – I am soon set to effect some serious drops in Federal and Provincial remittances.

The plan to get off gasoline is confirmed been done. Once I knew where to look, I found several who’ve already done it. I have researched it to death, and the only real headache involved is making the fuel itself (it is a solid fuel) – but I can think of several ways of automating the process.

There are several folks in the US, a few in Eastern Europe, and several in Scandinavia who have logged 100,000+km already without needing to buy a drop of gasoline for years on end. Every single one lives rurally.

So far I see no reason why a guy like me could not put this old school tech to use every single day. Not only for transportation, but also for property maintenance, heat production, and electricity production. Fully realized, it could knock near $10,000.00 off of my annual general expenditures – probably about 25-30% of this number is pure taxation.

I need to buy some equipment, and in keeping with the M.O., I’ll be buying well used for dirt cheap and no taxes – and then rebuild to my needs. I have multiple other projects going on for the house needing completion this summer (it never ends but at least the labour is top quality and tax free), but I am going to slide this one in somewhere as well and get started.

#153 Lee on 06.19.17 at 2:44 pm

For those of you interested in what a free country really is read the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Matal v. Tam issued June 19, 2017 found at “supremecourt.gov”. The Court ruled 8-0 in the matter confirming that hate speech is free speech protected by their first amendment. Wonder how the Ontario Human Rights Commission will see this?

#154 AK on 06.19.17 at 2:54 pm

#78 The American on 06.19.17 at 12:01 am
“You are aware he lost the popular vote by the largest margin in U.S. history, right? The American people did not overwhelming vote for this idiot’s agenda whatsoever.”
——————————————————————-
Was Hillary’s agenda any better ??

#155 Livin Large on 06.19.17 at 2:57 pm

“you ever wonder why that apartment building in London didn’t collapse like building 7?”… seriously? Aw come on you can’t be that simpleminded and still type can you???

For starters, no one flew 400,000 pounds of airliner into the apt building at 200 mph and there wasn’t 100,000s of litres of Jet A burning in the apt building.

Check the tinfoil boys, it’s a gettn’ tight.

#156 Stephen Shaw on 06.19.17 at 2:58 pm

This is a Fed/ZIRP market so the Trump Bump isn’t. Fed-held excess reserves (the $2t+ QE banksters never let out the gate (and get 125 bps on!!)) bled $700b from mid-2014 through 2016.

Therefore, short of BS, the market is here no matter. And it’s all fake.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXCSRESNS

#157 Bill on 06.19.17 at 3:12 pm

#148 InvestorsFriend on 06.19.17 at 1:39 pm
Mutual fund fees kill you especially in low growth under-performing markets..Hate em…
Fokes: A fund with 2% fee:: $10k invested for 30yrs with a return of 10% (good luck with that) Yields $100k and is $74k in fees…-42.30%..
The clear winner is the Banks cause their number is guaranteed. The rich don’t own them…The fee game in this country is a joke. Some are higher than 2 points and 2.5% gives them $100k in fees same period. Screw that.

#158 Brampton on the brink of ruin on 06.19.17 at 3:30 pm

CondoCitizen on 06.19.17 at 2:29 pm
Garth, this Brampton insolvency trustee administrator has some interesting tweets:

“Almost every single homeowner that files either a bankruptcy or a proposal with us is current on their mortgage. Almost always.”

“They’ll kill their grandmother to make a mortgage payment. I’ve seen people cash RRSPs to make one, use HELOC.. Delinquency #’s mean zip.”

https://twitter.com/CooperTrustee

Lots of fraudulent mortgages in Brampton. They are running out of credit and options. Many are listing their properties in an all out panic before they go bankrupt. Buyers be smart to wait for the ponzi scheme to crash.

#159 Contrarian Coyote on 06.19.17 at 3:30 pm

#97 Financial Man on 06.19.17 at 7:36 am
Can we return to comments about finance and housing instead of attacking or supporting an American politician. Thanks.

===

This x 100.

Lately, I’ve just been using Ctrl + F for terms to scan thru comments. Luckily, I’ve been following this blog long enough that I know who makes comments worth reading. I love the anecdotes on real estate with pricing as well as portfolio advice. It’s definitely helping my wife and I with our investments and still holding off on RE. Prices up here in the Kawarthas have only recently started to slide.

#160 bdwy sktrn on 06.19.17 at 3:34 pm

#155 Livin Large on 06.19.17 at 2:57 pm
——————
wow.
hook, line and sinker.

you may want to re-read the thread, sherlock.

#161 n1tro on 06.19.17 at 3:47 pm

#155 Livin Large

Idiot statement. Building 7 was not hit by any plane or had any jet fuel on it. It collapsed and was reported on the news BEFORE it fell. Keep labeling things you can’t explain as “conspiracies” and the people who question them as “nuts” if it makes you feel good about yourself.

When the engineers who designed the WTC 1&2 says the buildings were designed to withstand multiple airplane crashes and the building fell at free fall speeds, you need to at least ask questions.

Government false flag theories aside, how does a building fall straight down at the speed of gravity like if it was in a vacuum? Did the terrorists have special laws of physics defying fuel that caused this?

Unless you think the scientific facts around the WTC is false? But go ahead and swallow the “facts” around climate change.

9/11 accomplished 1 thing. It was the catalyst to fund war which (sadly) drives the markets up.

#162 InvestorsFriend on 06.19.17 at 4:11 pm

Knee-Jerk Reaction to All things Mutual Fund

#157 Bill on 06.19.17 at 3:12 pm responded to my #148 post saying:

Mutual fund fees kill you especially in low growth under-performing markets..Hate em…
Fokes: A fund with 2% fee:: $10k invested for 30yrs with a return of 10% (good luck with that) Yields $100k and is $74k in fees…-42.30%..

******************************************
Yes, you don’t stick with mutual funds for 30 years. What I said is they are not a bad way to start.

For those who never start $0k invested for 30 years is $0k rather than the $74k you mention for the $10k mutual fund investor.

$10k at 2% fee means the bank or mutual fund dude earned $200 from you. For that you can get a lot of hand holding and advice if you want.

What if a guy starts with $100 per month? Now the bank or mutual fund dude earns like $24 in the first year (Actually $12 if you consider the average invested was only $600 in the first year). For that little amount or probably $300 a month you can get an InvestorsGroup guy to come and make a house call and hold your hand twice a year.

I do self-directed with a discount broker and pay astonishing little in fees. But the point is, different strokes for different folks. There is no reason to bash the very existence of mutual funds.

#163 IHCTD9 on 06.19.17 at 4:17 pm

#146 Wrk.dover on 06.19.17 at 1:28 pm
IHCTD9 : My favorite ZZ Top line;

” You wanna race? Let the machine speak! “
____________________________________________

The whole car culture which was so big is toast. Eventually all those concours restored Hemi Cudas with certified authentic 1970 air in the tires will crash huge in value. Either that or they will end up in the hands of investors who’ve never heard the word “Mopar”

#164 IHCTD9 on 06.19.17 at 4:33 pm

#162 InvestorsFriend on 06.19.17 at 4:11 pm

Yes, you don’t stick with mutual funds for 30 years. What I said is they are not a bad way to start.

For those who never start $0k invested for 30 years is $0k rather than the $74k you mention for the $10k mutual fund investor.
________________________________________

Yep, I’d be one of those guys with $0.00 after 30 years if it wasn’t for automatic withdrawals and Mutual funds.

For the record, mutual funds require almost zero effort input, and if done within an RRSP/TFSA pay you back in other ways – especially if you dump your tax return back in.

The way I see it, I was definitely born to die broke, but [email protected] saved me :).

Starting with MF’s is a good way to get going – some day you’ll look at your statement and see a surprisingly large pile of money. Maybe you’ll get a little more enthusiastic about it at that point and start looking into investing out of personal interest.

If the balance stays at $0.00, you won’t be getting all pumped up to learn about investing.

#165 jess on 06.19.17 at 4:35 pm

“hunger bonds” 31 cents

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-31/goldman-sachs-gave-big-hand-to-venezuela-hunger-bonds-movement

#166 n1tro on 06.19.17 at 4:42 pm

#162 InvestorsFriend

Need to add that a lot of companies have RSP matching up to X% which is primary through Manulife. Despite the fees, smart move is to max out the matching every year even if it sits in the account for 30yrs.

#167 rainclouds on 06.19.17 at 5:18 pm

Another day another 2 scathing reports on RE in BC.

Of course at the federal level, Little Potato and his minions are “monitoring the situation”

Provincially, Carpetbagger Clark is pathetically hanging on with a new throne speech that sounds remarkably like the NDP platform. (Hiding something ex Prem?)Part of me wants her around as “leader” when RE blows up in spectacular fashion

http://www.theprovince.com/news/local+news/regulator+tracks+rise+mortgage+fraud+complaints+house+prices/13456427/story.html

https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/06/19/Nine-Real-Estate-Secrets/

#168 acdel on 06.19.17 at 5:23 pm

Best interesting quote that was ignored!

“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies…If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around (these banks) will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.” – Thomas Jefferson

#169 Leo Trollstoy on 06.19.17 at 5:42 pm

Liberals chirping about the popular vote?

You lost.

Get over it.

Lol

#170 MF on 06.19.17 at 5:53 pm

#145 Wrk.dover on 06.19.17 at 1:24 pm

The EU will collapse at some point. How much confidence do you have in the Euro?

#161 n1tro on 06.19.17 at 3:47 pm

How about the 2 massive buildings that just collapsed next to building 7 in a pile of dust?

“9/11 accomplished 1 thing. It was the catalyst to fund war which (sadly) drives the markets up.”

-Can be seen as confirmation bias? The motives of “911 truth seekers” are questionable as well.

MF

#171 IHCTD9 on 06.19.17 at 5:54 pm

#166 n1tro on 06.19.17 at 4:42 pm
#162 InvestorsFriend

Need to add that a lot of companies have RSP matching up to X% which is primary through Manulife. Despite the fees, smart move is to max out the matching every year even if it sits in the account for 30yrs.
—–

Yes, another good point. I had one of these and got 15 years out of it before my employer went kaput. 5 of those years was a 5% of gross pay match, so a pretty good deal IMHO.

Too bad I get squat for a retirement plan in my current job. Employer says he can’t afford it. Tel est la vie en Ontario…

#172 Garth the Joke on 06.19.17 at 6:02 pm

>A masterful influencer of opinion

In what reality do you live in?

Only the most desperate and foolish of people got influenced by Trump.

#173 El Joko on 06.19.17 at 6:12 pm

OK, all disagreements aside, much respect for approving the comment from an account called “Garth the Joke”.

#174 Wrk.dover on 06.19.17 at 6:31 pm

Jess: Thanks for reminding me again how ethical Goldman et al are. Would be great if old Jesus came by to dump their market carts. Suppose it was Goldman Sachs in that bible tale?

#175 Bill on 06.19.17 at 6:41 pm

On Mutual funds again: Ironically my sister just called and brought up how all the funds managers got all the money the last 30yrs through Fees….As I posted above. She had here fund selling license in the 90s. The investors made virtually nothing after inflation. She said 4 funds out of 1000s beat the main indices. What a joke those things turned out to be! Steer clear of Mutual funds…

#176 Livin Large on 06.19.17 at 6:51 pm

OK Nitro, I was dead wrong about the building 7 but as for falling at the speed of gravity…have you ever watched a video of a controlled explosive,demolition? They all fall at the approx speed of gravity.

#177 Evan on 06.20.17 at 8:42 am

This is going to sound weird but since I started helping people invest in 2010 I’ve come to the conclusion that most people aren’t in investing to earn great long term returns. Retail investors want to be part of communities. They want to be held in high esteem for being “smart”. They want to be “right”. They want to see their beliefs/prejudices/biases confirmed, or their out to see their team win (as in the case of Tom)… but they’re not out to make great long term returns by approaching things rationally.

Indexing is another one of those biases that will cause a lot of people a lot of pain long term. You can’t do what most other people are doing and earn great long term returns.

https://www.brokenleginvesting.com/passive-index-investing-poverty-in-retirement/

The fallout is going to be painful.

#178 A Reply to #177 Evan on 06.20.17 at 11:58 am

The article you provided is exceptionally good. I didn’t initially agree with the soundness of the premise (suggested in its title), but the writer does go on to explain what he meant (and with which I now agree).

Embedded within that article is a link to another which I also read, and which I think you’ll find to be worth reading.

https://www.netnethunter.com/have-you-been-sucked-into-the-warren-buffett-trap/

#179 choptstix on 06.20.17 at 2:58 pm

how’s this for stupid greed:
500ft ”1 bdrm” telus gardens seymour/richards in vancouver $768,000 asking price
http://bcres.paragonrels.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=2ee2df3b-7d39-497e-b83f-397c7b4e5768&Report=Yes