The big fix

Just as we all fixate on plopping properties, the feds have raised the hoary spectre of a bank failing. The timing’s impeccable. Real estate has never accounted for this much of the nation’s overall economy, nor has it ever been this delusional. Lots of people worry that if a correction turned into a crash our mortgage-spewing banks would be in trouble.

Unlikely, since these guys are obscenely profitable, well-run, diversified and have moved most of the mortgage risk onto taxpayers through CMHC insurance. But, hey, anything’s possible. Trump is president, after all.

So after a plan to ‘bail-in’ a failed bank was included in both the last two Harper and Trudeau budgets, it’s finally happening. The details were “pre-published” on Friday, after which there’ll be a one-month consultation period, then the whole thing gets cemented in the fall.

Of course, just imagining that CIBC or BMO might fail is terrifying. These big dinos dominate every aspect of our financial lives. The credit crisis took down venerable Wall Street institutions, of course, but the US has 6,800 federally-insured banks. We have six. Seeing any one of them fail is unthinkable, which is why the feds have classified them as ‘systemically-important’.

Almost a year ago Ottawa passed legislation to deal with this. The Bank Recapitalization (Bail-in) Regime law is now on the books and will soon be enacted. In response a lot of looney, tinfoil-hatted, survivalist, dooomer nutbars have argued that once it happens, nobody’s savings account, GIC, bank mutual fund or bond would be safe. Like in Cyprus, the government could convert personal accounts into bank shares – which means your cash would be seized and used to rescue the bank. This is a ‘bail-in’ because the rescue money comes from within, not a government bail-out. Taxpayers are spared. Bank customers are pooched.

Well, that’s wrong. Now we can see it.

“The rules would only apply to debt and shares issued that are unsecured, tradable, transferable, and have original terms to maturity of at least 400 days,” says Ottawa. “Such debt is held primarily by foreign and domestic institutional (fixed-income) investors, including asset and fund managers and large corporations, typically as a small portion of these investors’ overall portfolios.

“Canadians’ deposits (including chequing accounts, savings accounts and term deposits such as Guaranteed Investment Certificates) are not subject to losses under the regime.”

Common stock in the banks, corporate bonds and other securities are a different story. Owners of stocks and bonds would be expected to pony up the cash to save a bank while anyone with a CDIC-insured deposit would not. But let’s not kid ourselves. Ain’t gonna happen. Much more likely is a crisis at one of the country’s big credit unions which have massively exposed themselves to residential real estate mortgage risk. If you’re the worrying type and bank there, knock yourself out.

<<<<   >>>>

Odds are there’ll be hundreds of lonely realtors at open houses this weekend. Sales in major GTA markets continue to fall off a cliff. It’s a quirk of human nature that as demand falls, thousands more people decide to list their homes, creating vastly more choice for buyers, who then decide to stay home because of growing risk. Go figure.

A purchaser today can offer less, buy below the listing price and make an offer conditional upon securing financing or a satisfactory home inspection. Yet few dare. Among the scant sales in the northwest corner of the region a week ago, a home marketed for over $3 million sold for $500,000 less than list. That would have been unheard of before Easter.

Well, here’s the latest.

  • Last month the ratio of sales to new listings in Toronto dropped to about 40%, which means six-in-ten houses didn’t sell. It’s the lowest number since 2008, and compares with 90% four months ago. This is the worst decline in almost 30 years. In fact the last time we even came close to this collapse (1988) there was a 32% price crash which took two years to unfold and then required 14 years to reverse.
  • So, will there be speculation taxes coming, turning the fledgling correction into a full-fledged mess? CREA’s big economist Gregory Klump thinks so, and said as much during an event this week. People in the GTA should brace themselves, he adds, since the Ontario government will usher in the tax once the market starts to recover from its current funk. The time line: six months.
  • Meanwhile in BC it’s not clear if the Dipper-Tree Hugger Coalition & Experimental Government will be imposing a spec tax, or relying on “other measures” to murder the market. No word yet on whether that includes hanging investors by their privates from the pointy bits of the downtown Van Library. But it might. “The speculation part is what is out of control right now,” said the Green Party dude. “What we’re trying to get right at is people who are now viewing houses as a tradable commodity, not a place to live.” With almost 100% of detached Van houses costing $1 million or more, it’s a little late for that.
  • Of course, a province-wide foreign buyer’s tax of a withering 30% now seems a certainty. So long, Victoria.

 

164 comments ↓

#1 Owe Canada on 06.16.17 at 5:58 pm

The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses and governments (all levels) continues unabated. Growing the debt in the economy significantly faster than the economy itself grows seems to have developed into a way of life in Canada.

At the end of March, 2017 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $7.35 trillion. At the end of March, 2016 the total debt outstanding was $7.02 trillion. In the one year period from the end of March, 2016 to the end of March, 2017 it increased by $332 billion. This is an increase of 4.7%.

The approximate beginning of the global financial crisis was June, 2007. At the end of June, 2007 the total debt outstanding was $3.99 trillion. In the last 9-3/4 years it has increased by $3.36 trillion. This is an increase of 84.2%.

Looking at the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors in Canada (17th line up from the bottom of the credit market summary data table): At the end of March, 2017 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors was $5.19 trillion. At the end of March, 2016 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors was $4.96 trillion. In the one year period from the end of March, 2016 to the end of March, 2017 it increased by $235 billion. This is an increase of 4.7%.

At the end of June, 2007 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors was $2.84 trillion. In the last 9-3/4 years it has increased by $2.34 trillion. This is an increase of 82.5%.

The start date of this Statistics Canada data table can be changed by clicking on the “add/remove data” tab at the top of the page.

Canadian annual gdp at the present time is $2.11 trillion.

In the 1 year period from the end of March, 2016 to the end of March, 2017 the Canadian economy grew by 2.3% – ie: the size of the economy grew by $48.5 billion.

In this same 1 year time frame the total debt outstanding in Canada grew by $332 billion. For each $1.00 the economy grew in this 1 year period the total debt outstanding increased by $6.84.

Looking at just the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors in Canada: In the 1 year period from the end of March, 2016 to the end of March, 2017 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors increased by $235 billion. For each $1.00 the economy grew in this 1 year period the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors increased by $4.84.

At the end of March, 2017 the total debt outstanding in Canada was 3.4 times greater than our annual gdp, and looking at just the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors, that was 2.4 times greater than our annual gdp.

#2 Dorothy on 06.16.17 at 6:02 pm

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.17 at 10:58 pm

#54 Smoking Man on 06.15.17 at 10:13 pm
Liberalism is a mental disorder.
————–
Smokie,
You are ranting.
What’s the problem?
You make no sense.
————–
Triggered snowflake?

#3 Doug t on 06.16.17 at 6:13 pm

With the push to have a cashless society the banks hold VERY little actual cash in their banks. Hypothetically if I was worried about my bank and said to them “hey I want my $400k in cash now” good luck – 2 years ago I went to take $25k out – they had the gall to ask me what it was for – MY MONEY – I told them none of their business – then I had to wait 4 days before they could get the cash from vancouver. Once we go to crypto currencies completely then we will have more and more issues surrounding accessibility and control.

RATM

#4 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 06.16.17 at 6:14 pm

Average hourly wages in Canada have barely budged in 40 years
http://globalnews.ca/news/3531614/average-hourly-wage-canada-stagnant/

The truth hurts Garth.

#5 crossbordershopper on 06.16.17 at 6:19 pm

why waste your time worrying about this stuff, bns, cibc and bmo i think have paid a quarterly dividend uninterupted for like 100 year. 100 years, straight, just buy a bank stock and give it to your kid never to sell.
sure goverments have to worry about a once in lifetime storm. thats why we pay them to right up papers that no one ever reads. how many royal commissions have there been that sit collecting dust.
either way, is fathers day this weekend everyone hug your dad. they day will come when he is not with us anymore. Dont worry your quarterly bank dividend cheque is in the mail, like always.
if rates rise, and the momementum turns, specs go away, we could finally see a curving of prices and softness in the marketplace, long overdue and a healthy correction is a good thing.

#6 Smartalox on 06.16.17 at 6:20 pm

So what are the ‘bail-in’ provisions for Credit Unions, anyway?

CU’s are provincially regulated, are deposits insured by CDIC? Are we looking at bail-outs by provincial taxpayers?

Do we think that the vote-hungry populists in BC will let VanCity and CoastCapital fail?

#7 Dave on 06.16.17 at 6:21 pm

Victoria is a very small market, driven mainly by retirees who are not dependent on a job or the economy. Given its climate and location, do you think there will ever be more than a small correction?

#8 Leebow on 06.16.17 at 6:24 pm

This is bullshit language. What losses?

“Canadians’ deposits (including chequing accounts, savings accounts and term deposits such as Guaranteed Investment Certificates) are not subject to losses under the regime.”

#9 Cashed out in Vancouver on 06.16.17 at 6:26 pm

Sold ! Closed ! Done deal ! Bye bye Vancouver !!!

#10 Smoking Man on 06.16.17 at 6:26 pm

Housing Market in Toronto
6,582 Residential Properties for sale now
2,731,571 People in Toronto

Property for sale / People =0.002409602

#11 Moses71 on 06.16.17 at 6:30 pm

Guess the intuitiveLESS, insightLESS & late greedy buyers in Toronto should invest in some parachutes, eh?

#12 SilentReader on 06.16.17 at 6:32 pm

What will happen with home prices in GTA if BC introduces 30% tax? Pendulum will swing back to Toronto?

#13 RentYVR on 06.16.17 at 6:36 pm

“Meanwhile in BC it’s not clear if the Dipper-Tree Hugger Coalition & Experimental Government will be imposing a spec tax, or relying on “other measures” to murder the market.”

In other words, they’re not going to do anything meaningful to stop speculation. I noted on here weeks ago when the Green-NDP announcement came out that it said nothing on housing and that they would chicken out. No minority gov’t is going to try and pop this bubble while the threat of a quick election hangs over their heads, it would be political suicide.

#14 Costco Nation on 06.16.17 at 6:38 pm

So, how is this actually rolled in the remote unpossibility? If a shareholder, do they ask you for extra money in order to access (sell) the shares? Do they “set” a new price to indirectly collect the bail amount? This all sounds even more scary than skimming deposits, since those were already under tutelage. Extending reach onto a supposedly free stock market is even more intrusive, dignifying more of a communist regime. Honest question.

#15 Guy in Calgary on 06.16.17 at 6:43 pm

I would just like to point out that Credit Unions in Alberta have a 100% deposit guarantee on their deposits. Yes 100% guarantee! Ontario Credit Unions have the same $100k guarantee that the big 5 have. Sure there could be some that are overextended but the deposits are insured.

This is a long overdue, healthy correction in my opinion. The same thing happens with any bloated asset class. The values have to come down but at the same time, we all have to live somewhere and people want to live in Canada.

Bankrupt AB bailing out failing CUs? Sure, cowboy. — Garth

#16 Bandit on 06.16.17 at 6:43 pm

Kuntucky…. Fried ChicKEN!!!

#17 ILoveCharts on 06.16.17 at 6:43 pm

No 30% tax. Why spreading fake news?

#18 Edmontonchuk on 06.16.17 at 6:47 pm

Hey Garth, tons of houses for sale in Edmonton and the buss that I hear is it’s a buyers market? I don’t believe it for a second as oil is in the tank and jobs suck here now.

#19 Ret on 06.16.17 at 6:51 pm

Speculation tax? For flippers, who cares?

What if you rent the place for a year? Would you be a flipper or an investor?

Kathleen Wynne says that she’ll run again as she has more ‘work’ ( read as “taxes”) to do. I am not surprised.

#20 THREE FINGERS WATSON on 06.16.17 at 6:52 pm

No worries, the Big Six ARE too big to fail.

#21 Reasonfirst on 06.16.17 at 6:53 pm

#7 Dave on 06.16.17 at 6:21 pm

The employment participation rate in Victoria CMA is 64.5 and 66.1% in Vancouver…not that different and not “driven mainly by retirees”.

#22 The Greater Cauliflower on 06.16.17 at 6:53 pm

Regarding international diversification, this is the percentage of Net Revenues Mondelez (NASDAQ: MDLZ) receives from the following geographical areas:
40% Europe
20% North America
15% Latin America
14% Asia Pacific
11% Europe,Middle East,Africa

So, by buying certain companies listed on a US stock exchange(that do business all over the world), you are automatically diversifying internationally.

#23 good grief on 06.16.17 at 6:56 pm

a home marketed for over $3 million sold for $500,000 less than list. That would have been unheard of before Easter.

……….

someone bought it for $2,500,000

yeah, all is okay

#24 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 06.16.17 at 6:58 pm

Government plans to crash the housing bubble back to the mean average. We are talking 40-50% and greater drop in prices. Many of you realtors will never sell another property again. Many of you will never work in the industry again. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#25 Ex-Cowtown on 06.16.17 at 7:00 pm

#7 Dave on 06.16.17 at 6:21 pm

Victoria is a very small market, driven mainly by retirees who are not dependent on a job or the economy. Given its climate and location, do you think there will ever be more than a small correction?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Victoria is disconnected from reality as well. It is a small market, but the disconnect is YUUUUGE. Fundamentally, Vic has no real economy, only real estate speculation. A friend of mine who grew up there says that the Inner Harbour used to be alive with warehouses, docks, ship building, lumber and goods being transported in and out. Real jobs existed back then. Now it’s just all condos.

God help us if we ever need to do anything productive there again.

#26 Nonplused on 06.16.17 at 7:01 pm

I just paid my property taxes of $4,400 for the year. But since I paid income tax on all that money I actually had to earn closer to $8,000 to pay it. Now they want land transfer taxes, capital gains taxes, and foreign buyer’s taxes? Oh and don’t forget HSCT on new houses. It’s asset seizure plain and simple.

It’s a tax on a tax on a tax. Welcome to Canada! Where you don’t really own anything, you just pay taxes on it!

Time to seriously consider living in an RV! Sure they cost a fortune to heat in the winter but that’s why you drive south when the snow comes.

#27 Dan on 06.16.17 at 7:03 pm

Smoking Man
Would be nice if you could elaborate on your sometimes short jabs…and incoherent statements.
Maybe it’s the alcohol you say you drink or maybe you are following in “your Golden Boy…Trump “…footsteps. Be brief and keep fooling everyone except his extremely rich buddies….swimming in the Washington deep swamp..now getting paid by the American taxpayers…the new “rich welfare club”…loyal to Trump no matter what. …hey Donald keep signing your family government checks….any there for your buddy “Smoking Man”

#28 Livin Large on 06.16.17 at 7:03 pm

So, let me see if I have this correct.

You’re talking about enabling legislation put in place for the spectre of an American style RE driven insolvency crisis that has never actually come to pass in Canada…ever?

As far ad I recall from having worked for what is likely the only federally chartered Canadian bank (IAC/Continental) to have experienced a run in the last 75 years, in the event of serious panic, the Minister of Finance steps in to arrange an orderly sale of a banks assets to another of the sisters.

Not too much worrying me so far.

And yes, BMO have paid a dividend every year for over 150 years. They have never failed to pay their dividend and they have never cut their dividend however they did keep it the same from ’08-’12 or early ’13 when their share price halved.

Longest running dividend streak in Canada, maybe even N. America. Not a guaranteed money spinner but still a cyclical performer.

#29 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 06.16.17 at 7:05 pm

Btw. If you have money in a credit union you should get your money out now! Don’t wait for the doors to be closed on you. That was advise from my banker buddy. This monster housing bubble is going to get popped now. Prices to revert back to mean average. There is a panic behind closed door . Better be safe then sorry. We are headed for some turbulence. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#30 Post on 06.16.17 at 7:05 pm

I’ve never read that the NDP support a 30% foreign buyers tax. I’ve read the Greens do, but nothing further has been discussed publicly. Where are you getting your info Garth?

The only info that the NDP have discussed (that I have read) openly is closing loopholes for foreigners, investors, landlords, ect… that are evading capital gains tax and that a new tax penalizing homeowners who don’t pay provincial income tax.

#31 Costco Nation on 06.16.17 at 7:07 pm

To pile on before the moderation is achieved, the still “free” market should react to this risk by a selloff. …that is if locking in bank shares until the bail is paid is the new rule. I’m so curious how this would play out. I suppose this is not true or digested yet. No visible reaction since Friday.

#32 Debtslavecreator on 06.16.17 at 7:07 pm

Great write up Garth
I agree it is very unlikely one of the big six will be bailed in and yes there is a lot more potential risk at the small to some of the large CUs
Worse yet most of the large CUs are healthy for now but should Alberta and BC see continued economic decline and if one the large CUs fail in AB or BC the large healthy CUs in Ontario and elsewhere may see a loss of confidence – FYI as of Jan 1 the DICO insurance goes to 250k
That said deposit insurance is nonsense
It really is designed for one off small failures
If we do enter a European style systemic crisis deposit insurance means nothing. While I still can’t understand why so many put so much of their long term savings in GICs, in a systemic crisis not only do FIs eventually fail your CAD currency will easily be under .60 cents and essentially toilet paper
The large GIC holders who think they are safe should read a CDIC annual report and look at the reserves including their LOC available to cover losses relative to the amount of deposits covered under deposit insurance
We are looking at a tiny percentage about .75% reserves available relative to amount eligible for insurance
In this economic environment with tax revenues dropping due to a collapsed economy and failing banks why would anyone keep more than 2-3 months of expenses in a savings account ?
If you need to keep saving over 4-5 years a large amount over the insured limit (to buy a home soon for example) just buy govt of Canada treasury bills and have a modest exposure to short term AAA government bonds in a stronger currency along with 5% in PM held outside the system
Deposit insurance is nonsense and provides a false sense of security to those savers dumb enough lend their savings so that banks and rich RE owners get rich over time
Use any sharp corrections in blue chips and high end RE to reduce large cash holdings go /GICs
Stop being suckers

#33 aa6 on 06.16.17 at 7:08 pm

Wages have stagnated in Canada because it is 2017, and we have a state of the art 1965 industrial base.

Pulp & paper, aluminum, auto assembly, mining, we are really good at.

#34 Smoking Man on 06.16.17 at 7:11 pm

#2 Dorothy on 06.16.17 at 6:02 pm
#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.17 at 10:58 pm

#54 Smoking Man on 06.15.17 at 10:13 pm
Liberalism is a mental disorder.
————–
Smokie,
You are ranting.
What’s the problem?
You make no sense.
————–
Triggered snowflake?
…..

I guess, when that mental case shot up the baseball field it triggered me. Also dont take many of posts to seriously after pm, thats when Jack takes over my keyboard.

#35 Dan on 06.16.17 at 7:12 pm

Been watching 2 condos for sale for last 4 weeks….not selling in an older upscale building which for last 3 years have been selling in a week…..usually bought by baby boomers who were befitting from selling the 1970’s ranch bungalows….now also not selling….in Etobicoke
Only ones to bring this out of control high housing prices back to some sense of sanity is for buyers to continue “the buying strike”…hopefully the group of panicking buying fools have petered out.

#36 ANON on 06.16.17 at 7:16 pm

Both tomorrow’s paper and the f(ail) word in a single blog post. Something’s up, and it’s finally reaching the upper layers. If one is detached enough, there is the risk of some serious fun as solutions to predicaments are discussed.

#37 Rook on 06.16.17 at 7:16 pm

So long Victoria?
I’ve hear that before….many times. I’ll believe it when I see it.
I’m confused though, I though Garth said foreign purchasers are not part of the current run up in prices?

Nope, not the major catalyst. But an inflated market can be pricked by anything. Prick coming. — Garth

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.17 at 7:18 pm

Garth.
Dont worry about the politically correct socialists attempting to gain power in BC.
Judging by the latest shenanigans in Victoria we’ll be suffering through another BC election before Oct. 2017

And one can only hope the “minorities” Govt will be a bit more lopsided than 43 seats vs 43 seats we currently have ……..with God knows who…. appointed Speaker of the House.

I couldnt care if the Devil incarnate was the Leader just so long as it isnt his wife….Christy Clark

#39 conan on 06.16.17 at 7:18 pm

Bail in is serious chit. Every major country will have enacted some form of bail in legislation by the year 2020.

There is going to be a class of investor that is going to get screwed. Think 2008, but it wont be a real estate tranche this time. My guess is that it will be a form of bank paper that goes from being worth something, to being worth nothing. The banks will try to slip this paper into as many people’s investments as they can, before it happens.

There will be moaning.

https://youtu.be/w6iRNVwslM4?t=6

#40 Costco Nation on 06.16.17 at 7:19 pm

#10 Smoking Man on 06.16.17 at 6:26 pm

Housing Market in Toronto
6,582 Residential Properties for sale now
2,731,571 People in Toronto

Property for sale / People =0.002409602
__________________________________

Interesting, but… This number is instant, or, let’s say spanning a week. How long is the Canadian “think time”? I would say you have to multiply by at least 8, 2 months. That would gather together the like minds, great so to say, in the same market moving sample. Makes it about 2% . Then bring together the average moving time, 5 years, during good times. That would make the 2 months representing 1/30 of avg normal unscared moving whole, Wich would be your 100% reference. That’s a normal 3% listings. So now you have 66% increase due to fear.

#41 Al on 06.16.17 at 7:21 pm

Realtors are looking to break their car leases in droves.

#42 mike from mtl on 06.16.17 at 7:22 pm

Okay right so you’re finally admitting to a bail-in of (at least one of) the big six, and simultaneously recommending to be as much as 22% maple and invest in maple preferreds?

Sounds like quite a set up for loss?

There is nothing to ‘admit’. I reported on this when it happened – 2015. Did you miss the part about ‘ain’t gonna happen’? — Garth

#43 Howard on 06.16.17 at 7:23 pm

Touted by an RE shill on Facebook…

“Co-buy a place with a friend”

http://www.advisor.ca/tax/estate-planning/what-to-do-when-friends-want-to-buy-property-together-233395

#44 AGuyInVancouver on 06.16.17 at 7:25 pm

Good timing for this story, a couple who hold four rental condos and didn’t understand they were actually making less than a high interest savings account, and rising interest rates would torpedo that meager amount:
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/family-finance/with-72-of-their-assets-tied-up-in-real-estate-thats-in-the-red-couple-face-big-drag-on-retirement-income

#45 Freedumb on 06.16.17 at 7:42 pm

#27 Dan on 06.16.17 at 7:03 pm

Smoking Man
Would be nice if you could elaborate on your sometimes short jabs…and incoherent statements.
Maybe it’s the alcohol you say you drink or maybe you are following in “your Golden Boy…Trump “…footsteps. Be brief and keep fooling everyone except his extremely rich buddies….swimming in the Washington deep swamp..now getting paid by the American taxpayers…the new “rich welfare club”…loyal to Trump no matter what. …hey Donald keep signing your family government checks….any there for your buddy “Smoking Man”

__

You want coherent writing, stay tuned. I’m ready to roll.

#46 DON on 06.16.17 at 7:42 pm

repost too mani speling mistkes.

#6 Smartalox on 06.16.17 at 6:20 pm

So what are the ‘bail-in’ provisions for Credit Unions, anyway?

CU’s are provincially regulated, are deposits insured by CDIC? Are we looking at bail-outs by provincial taxpayers?

Do we think that the vote-hungry populists in BC will let VanCity and CoastCapital fail?

##############

Why did the most corrupt government in BC’s history let things get in such a mess? They are the business party and strong fiscal managers…NO? LMAO! Why should we (you and me) as a taxpayers bail out the unsound business practices of the credit unions?

Harper got out lucky as Trudeau is saddled with the problem in the middle of his term and will still be experiencing it when the next federal election roles around.

BC in the 80’s: same thing happened under the Social Credit Party/BC Liberal and they were voted out after a long term when the clean up was just beginning and the economy was tanking (hey just like now – realestate is the only thing propping up BC at the moment – hell it is propping up Canada’s GDP). Why is it always the self touted fiscally prudent right wing parties that get us into this mess time and time again? And leave as the crash is coming – how lucky or convenient.

Blinding partisanship is the problem. Divide and conquer rather than a common sense fact based discussion/debate in the political realm. This is our collective money.

#47 NM on 06.16.17 at 7:45 pm

New townhouses in South Surrey starting at 650 and people gooble them up. I can’t understand it, but it keeps going. Happy to have reasonable rent and no for sale sign on the front lawn.

#48 bigtowne on 06.16.17 at 7:45 pm

The myth that people will never loose money in a bank in Canada is the decoy to satisfy the fact that our savings earn us interest of .50 which in real terms taking and adjusting for 2% inflation means loss of of or devaluation of your savings year after year.

As usual the press and even our main hero Garth are worrying in the wrong corner. Friends our currency and our low interest rates are like your big virile lover in a cold freezing river in Northern Quebec soaked to the bone but his intimates are shrivilled like our savings; pathetic, shrinking, disappearing and seemingly vaporizing in our ultra uber safe banks.

#49 Mark on 06.16.17 at 7:45 pm

The whole concept of bail-ins as it applies to the big-5/big-6 Canadian banks is pretty nonsensical. These institutions will turn to their adjustable rate borrowers for liquidity support first, by accelerating the repayment schedules and raising applicable interest rates. The risk isn’t so much of a bail-in of a big-5 in Canada, but rather, that hoardes of people who were reasonably abundant consumers wake up and have their HELOCs, their credit cards, and even their floating rate mortgage rates escalate dramatically.

We’ve already seen the first shot fired in the salvo, when TD, for no reason other than their perception of diminished credit-worthiness, raised the prime rate applicable to “TD Mortgage” customers, but not to overall TD bank customers.

“I would just like to point out that Credit Unions in Alberta have a 100% deposit guarantee on their deposits. “

By the credit union itself, or their affiliates. Much like the Royal Bank of Canada unconditionally guarantees 100% of your deposits in the Royal Bank. Remember kids, the guarantee is only as good as the guarantor.

#50 The Big Short on 06.16.17 at 7:46 pm

How do we go about shorting the housing market? I know you think it won’t “collapse” but I feel that it will. Even a slow death over years it’s a good opportunity for those who believe this thing only has one way to go.

#51 Space X on 06.16.17 at 7:48 pm

It’s interesting to see the people density in Vancouver. If you consider that many of the highest density cities in the world are low rise cities, then there’s tons of space to go. There’s all sorts of crappy buildings in West and North Vancouver they can knock down and build 20 stories on. Prime stuff. Pop.

https://goo.gl/VuEngp

#52 Dan.t on 06.16.17 at 7:52 pm

About time policy is changed. At least I hope they actually do something and not some toothless measure to votes. Housing should not be traded as a commodity. If you want that then regulate it like the commodities market.

At least then the real estate board would become obsolete and buyers and sellers would all have the same information. No shadow flipping, FOMO auctions, cheating, lying and misinforming the public would end.

I don’t feel bad for people who bought over inflated real estate but it should not have got to that point. They had a choice but sucks to have to choose between either insane rents or debt servitude to one of the big banks or subprime issuers. When the herd gets moving together, look out but often public buys tops or near tops and sells bottom of markets.

Or is speculation and unaffordable housing a good thing?

#53 The Big Short on 06.16.17 at 7:52 pm

Anyone noticed that the 401 is packed with people at all times of day. In any city there are tons of people walking around during the day too. Does anyone work anymore? I guess not, they just go to Home Depot to buy crap to tinker with their houses. The old “managing by walking around” strategy is quite telling. Very few people in Ontario work compared with just 10-15 years ago.

#54 Tony on 06.16.17 at 7:52 pm

Re: #12 SilentReader on 06.16.17 at 6:32 pm

Maybe the Chinese will actually figure it out this time and just give-up. Do Chinese play chess or pool and think about the next move and the next move after that or never think past the first move?

#55 Fuzzy Camel on 06.16.17 at 7:54 pm

Garth, is it possible, that those loonie conspiracy magazines like The Economist, are right about a new reserve currency in 2018?

#56 The Big Short on 06.16.17 at 8:01 pm

Lastly, anyone else find it hilarious that Poloz puts out a threat about rising interest rates the day before the USA raised theirs. He’s like the little boy who cried wolf. We all know he won’t raise the rates, he doesn’t have the cohones. It’ll just diverge with the USA more and more until Canada finally goes under.

#57 Newcomer on 06.16.17 at 8:01 pm

My understanding is that BC credit union deposits benefit from unlimited provincial government insurance (no 100 K cap). Is it safe to assume that crashing credit unions is not on the long list of things Vancouverites need to worry about?

#58 Tony on 06.16.17 at 8:07 pm

It’s sad but true your money is safer off in offshore tax havens.

#59 D.D. Corkum on 06.16.17 at 8:11 pm

#3 Doug t on 06.16.17 at 6:13 pm

[…] the banks hold VERY little actual cash in their banks. 2 years ago I went to take $25k out […] then I had to wait 4 days before they could get the cash from vancouver.

In other news, been many years since we heard of a bank robbery at a local branch where the thief made off with vast sums of money.

#60 Ret on 06.16.17 at 8:14 pm

#15 Ontario Credit Unions have the same $100k guarantee that the big 5 have.

Yes, the same guarantee, but not the same CDIC guarantor. I am far more concerned about CU’s than Home Capital, a favorite whipping boy here of many Blog Dogs.

#61 Asterix1 on 06.16.17 at 8:20 pm

#10 Smoking Man on
Housing Market in Toronto
6,582 Residential Properties for sale now
2,731,571 People in Toronto
Property for sale / People =0.002409602

This calculation might make more sense:

2,731,571 people divided by 6,582 homes for sale =
1 home for sale for every 415 people

690,000 families divided by 6,582 homes for sales =
1 home for sale for every 104 families.

#62 Adrian on 06.16.17 at 8:24 pm

#1 Owe Canada

“The approximate beginning of the global financial crisis was June, 2007… In the last 9-3/4 years it has increased by… 84.2%.”

Yes, we borrowed our way out of 2008 and created a domestic real estate bubble as a consequence. In 2014, the Central Bank of England published a paper in their quarterly review titled, “Money creation in the modern
economy,” explaining how commercial banks originate deposit money through the process of loan creation:

“Money creation in practice differs from some popular misconceptions — banks do not act simply
as intermediaries, lending out deposits that savers place with them, and nor do they ‘multiply up’
central bank money to create new loans and deposits.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1prereleasemoneycreation.pdf

The credit impulse of this new money – when created for mortgages – leads prices by ~3 months according to Professor Steve Keen. That means that what’s driving prices is how many people can qualify for mortgages, and how quickly they are doing so. When that slows down because nobody else qualifies, the credit impulse will go negative and so will (/are?) prices:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevekeen/2016/03/27/the-seven-countries-most-vulnerable-to-a-debt-crisis/#383e5de9ce5a

#63 Where's The Money Guido? on 06.16.17 at 8:28 pm

Now we know why BC RE is pooched. The BC Liberal gov’t is allowing foreign millionaires to not declare income or show their property ownership, so they hide them under numbered-arm’s length companies. http://www.pressreader.com/canada/vancouver-sun/20170401/281556585669321
From what I heard, all the BC gov’t has to do is put a check box on the provincial sales contract showing status so Canada Revenue can use their programs to check these people out with their algorithms.
Brutal…..No wonder Crusty took so many trips to China these past couple years, must have been to fill the purse because they have known about this and have been at odds with CRA for about 2 years now.
There it is, the smoking gun.
These detritus need to be behind bars!!!!

#64 choptstix on 06.16.17 at 8:35 pm

#9 Cashed out in Vancouver on 06.16.17 at 6:26 pm
Sold ! Closed ! Done deal ! Bye bye Vancouver !!!
——————————————
smart dude, tell us more…where did you end up?
the island like so many wish to go to? please do share.
and congrats…Vancouver is increasingly like the Kim Kardashians how: has nice curves, T&A, but underneath all the $$$ and bling is a shallow emptiness.
Vancouver a world class city (like NY, London or Paris): lol…not.

#65 choptstix on 06.16.17 at 8:40 pm

“Meanwhile in BC it’s not clear if the Dipper-Tree Hugger Coalition & Experimental Government will be imposing a spec tax, or relying on “other measures” to murder the market.”

In other words, they’re not going to do anything meaningful to stop speculation. I noted on here weeks ago when the Green-NDP announcement came out that it said nothing on housing and that they would chicken out. No minority gov’t is going to try and pop this bubble while the threat of a quick election hangs over their heads, it would be political suicide.
———————————–
sorry but I disagree: please see the Youtube discussion between NDP David Eby (he’ll prob get the housing portfolio …yah!) representing Point Grey (think forest hill wealth, besides shaughnessy)
and steve saretsky…10 in mark and also 20-23 min mark: Eby notes they don’t want people to lose equity with any measures imposed, but to stop the BS the libs had no balls to do anything about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yRczBxZBhs

#66 Millenial905er on 06.16.17 at 8:45 pm

@#53 The Big Short on 06.16.17 at 7:52 pm
Anyone noticed that the 401 is packed with people at all times of day. In any city there are tons of people walking around during the day too. Does anyone work anymore?

I literally just had this discussion with my husband only 20 minutes ago! I am on maternity leave and am amazed by the number of people who have the luxury to drop off and pick up their kids at school 8:50 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. when I go shopping I see lots of working-age people in stores shopping. All the kids groups I’ve attended have been filled with parents of toddlers who drive fancy cars and have nice clothes. There’s a couple on my block with two kids and neither parent Works yet they seem to have lots of money. It’s got me wondering whether I’ve been working all these years to pay for other people’s benefits. Both my husband and I have been working since the age of 14. We now have government jobs (trust me we work really hard) with long commute times. I’ve worked hard and played it safe my whole life.. seeing these loafers makes me hope that we finally get a recession so that they get a dose of reality.

You’re not working, right? Government topped-up mat leave? — Garth

#67 SW on 06.16.17 at 8:47 pm

An old 1.5 storey house in my village in E. Ontario has a small paper sign in the window. Foreclosure 12 June by first mortgage holder Home Trust.

Brand new above ground pool in backyard. Will sell for less than $100K in present condition (crappy).

I have never seen this before.

#68 Millenial905er on 06.16.17 at 8:57 pm

@#66 conan on 06.16.17 at 8:43 pm
#54 Tony on 06.16.17 at 7:52 pm

I heard that the Chinese government likes to think long term. In the West, politicians think in 4 year increments, the Chinese think 50 years.

Is that a joke? Nothing could be further from the truth. They’re so short sighted they’re building ghost cities and destroying their environment in the process. There’s a reason wealthy Chinese are fleeing in droves to our detriment.

#69 Where's The Money Guido? on 06.16.17 at 8:57 pm

Re: #39 conan on 06.16.17 at 7:18 pm
Bail in is serious chit. Every major country will have enacted some form of bail in legislation by the year 2020.

There is going to be a class of investor that is going to get screwed. Think 2008, but it wont be a real estate tranche this time. My guess is that it will be a form of bank paper that goes from being worth something, to being worth nothing. The banks will try to slip this paper into as many people’s investments as they can, before it happens.

What type paper are you discussing, shares?

#70 rainclouds on 06.16.17 at 8:58 pm

Well the political strategy of incrementally and tentatively turning the screws is interesting. Nobody wants to be the one to make this crumble all at once as that would be political suicide. Complete abdication of leadership and courage but waddaya expect from people who pray at the alter of CONTIBUTIONS?

Meanwhile We will see what the Red-Green party does in its 12 months of Govt. Methinks the BC Con/ Libs are probably a tad worried the skeletons are gonna come out of the closet.

Millennials:

Here in Van-idiot, I had the pleasure of saving a poor millennial yesterday as she locked herself outside on her 8th fl balcony. Almost exactly 24 hours later BOTH of the roomies were locked out on said balcony.These people are allowed to vote and purchase homes ? Dear God we are sooo screwed

#71 Hormones on 06.16.17 at 8:59 pm

Garth often talks about hormones.
A prime example is Emelia.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/praying-for-a-real-estate-crash/

#72 BG on 06.16.17 at 9:08 pm

“Common stock in the banks, corporate bonds and other securities are a different story. Owners of stocks and bonds would be expected to pony up the cash to save a bank ”

And then we wonder why Canadians love to park their money into real estate?

There is no correlation. Nine in ten have never heard of a bail-in – which will never occur. — Garth

#73 Wrk.dover on 06.16.17 at 9:13 pm

Garth ! You threw chum in the waters on a Friday night.

It would be more fun with a winter storm howling outside….

#74 n1tro on 06.16.17 at 9:14 pm

I leave about $100 in my bank account at any given time. Use PC financial so there isn’t any monthly fees. Rest of my money is in registered accounts or in my safe. Been doing this ever since TD gave me shit for trying to pull out $12K of my own money. The idiots wanted to give me a bank draft but then wouldn’t make it out to “cash”.

#75 Where's The Money Guido? on 06.16.17 at 9:15 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9GRENUsHjA

#76 conan on 06.16.17 at 9:26 pm

RE #69 Where’s The Money Guido? on 06.16.17 at 8:57 pm
“What type paper are you discussing, shares?”

It will be a huge chunk of bad debt, disguised as something else. So, same M.O. as 2008, but legal this time around.

They are evil geniuses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRG-RBZBTZI

#77 Smoking Man on 06.16.17 at 9:31 pm

#61 Asterix1 on 06.16.17 at 8:20 pm
#10 Smoking Man on
Housing Market in Toronto
6,582 Residential Properties for sale now
2,731,571 People in Toronto
Property for sale / People =0.002409602

This calculation might make more sense:

2,731,571 people divided by 6,582 homes for sale =
1 home for sale for every 415 people

690,000 families divided by 6,582 homes for sales =
1 home for sale for every 104 families.

Just saying in Toronto, things not so bad. I have an outdated resume or get on your hands and knees and plead for acceptance. I Don’t roll that way. No degree here.

I’ve been getting a minimum of 2 head hunters a day begging to present me, A VBA guru with trade floor experience, Ha the idiots in IT departments 10 years ago thought Excel VBA would be extinct. The truth is they can’t support it, it’s a self-taught thing that everyone loves but it’s not taught. Supply and demand bitches is all I’m saying.

So my conclusion is the Toronto Job market red hot, rates are based on labor pool availability and not the inflation word. Designed to fool idiots.

So my official call, Toronto, or any property on a go train line is golden. The burbs, forklift labor force won’t do so good.

I haven’t responded to any headhunters, this entrepreneur who gives away for free an invoicing system that is better than anything out there.

I’ve had 11k downloads in North America, 17 requests for customization leading to 22k in sales and it only cost me 675 dollars on Google Adwords. With 11 hours of labor to satisfy the 22k.

I’m amazing, hammered by night, hung over by day, beating up globalist 24/7 f-en tax thieves and having the time of my life away from their control working for the machine.

Posted a LinkedIn joke to former 7 figure co-workers. Not one like, oh the fear from DM after they saw what he did to a school buddy.

More vids from Seneca tonight.

To watch self-destruction in real time follow me on twitter @smokingman

#78 Dan.t on 06.16.17 at 9:37 pm

#13 RentYVR
Unfortunately i agree that the government in BC will end up doing nothing. No balls and no one wants blood on their hands, better to just let the speculation and money laundering and sell out of BC real estate to continue. Most likely outcome. Everyone loves debt so much so no big deal.

#79 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.16.17 at 9:47 pm

Don’t you get it; they’ve already been bailed-in. The legislation allowed it to play out that way as soon as the legislation was passed. The markets have already factored the implications of that legislation into their balance sheets. It is helping in the attempt to try to stave off the inevitable crash as we speak. Just the way that the student loans were made so that no one can dismiss the debt through bankruptcy; that was so that the student debts could be traded as a financial commodity. It used to be that only debt incurred through illegal activities was non-dismissable through bankruptcy. Today’s students don’t seem to have a problem with being treated as criminals.

#80 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.16.17 at 9:54 pm

Anyone noticed that the 401 is packed with people at all times of day. In any city there are tons of people walking around during the day too. Does anyone work anymore? I guess not, they just go to Home Depot to buy crap to tinker with their houses. The old “managing by walking around” strategy is quite telling. Very few people in Ontario work compared with just 10-15 years ago.
——————————————————
Take a Google Maps Street View tour of downtown Detroit; you’ll se that no one is out on the streets at all. Downright eerie.

#81 pete on 06.16.17 at 9:59 pm

#68 Millenial905er on 06.16.17 at 8:57 pm
@#66 conan on 06.16.17 at 8:43 pm
#54 Tony on 06.16.17 at 7:52 pm

I heard that the Chinese government likes to think long term. In the West, politicians think in 4 year increments, the Chinese think 50 years.

Is that a joke?

No, that is not a joke. Chinese government thinks in 75 years. No communist country has exceeded 75 years in life expectancy.

Soviet Union: 1917 to 1991, 74 years
North Korea: 1945 to 2017, already 72 years
Eastern European: 1945 to 1989, 44 years
Cuba: 1959 to 2017, already 58 years
China: 1949 to 2017, already 68 years.

So you see, no one has got over the 75 years magic number. That is the number of years they plan.

#82 45north on 06.16.17 at 10:00 pm

Last month the ratio of sales to new listings in Toronto dropped to about 40%. It’s the lowest number since 2008, and compares with 90% four months ago. This is the worst decline in almost 30 years. In fact the last time we even came close to this collapse (1988) there was a 32% price crash which took two years to unfold and then required 14 years to reverse.

which makes me think that we’re in for a hard crash

Doug t: D. D. Corkum: it’s been many years since we heard of a bank robbery at a local branch where the thief made off with vast sums of money.

I think the tellers keep only a couple of hundred bucks. You’d be better off going to a grocery store but every place has video cameras.

Moses71: Guess the late greedy buyers in Toronto should invest in some parachutes, eh?

or an ark

Mark: talking about the big Canadian banks: These institutions will turn to their adjustable rate borrowers for liquidity support first, by accelerating the repayment schedules and raising applicable interest rates.

yeah that makes sense. I hear they have also told their home appraisers to drop their appraisals 20 to 30%.

#83 WUL on 06.16.17 at 10:00 pm

#77 Smokes:

“I have an outdated resume or get on your hands and knees and plead for acceptance. I Don’t roll that way. No degree here.”
…..

I’m right behind you. My employer in Fort McMisery has run out of money so I am being skidded end of June. So, I’m southbound to the succor provided by kin, friends and the homestead in Calgary.

I’ve sent out my last resume. That tome screamed age and and nicotine stains.

I’m about to become a job creating entrepreneur. Not selling tin doors door to door though. Hanging up the shingle to rail on against injustice on behalf of well heeled clients. With luck.

This pathetic blog’s comment section will need a new faithful correspondent from the Taiga. Small shoes to fill.

#84 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.16.17 at 10:04 pm

It’s sad but true your money is safer off in offshore tax havens.
—————————————————-
You know, it need not be for tax reasons that someone has a bank account in Liechtenstein or Switzerland, but rather just for the security that comes with it. However you’ll never see the press portraying these kinds of accounts as being for any use other than criminal.

#85 Al Sinclair on 06.16.17 at 10:09 pm

What Crash?

The banks are fine, I should know, that’s where I get my money from. Don’t worry, Be happy and Buy, Buy, Buy.

No crash coming. We have a supply problem and we also have too many damn listings on the market. Too many listings on the market is not good. Take your property off the market and then call me.

Foreign buyers, what foreign buyers? I just don’t see it. I’m in the market, on the market and about the market. Heck, I am the market. Listen to me and not the analyst that said a 40% drop in prices is coming. What does he know? A 30% increase in one year is normal. This is all good for you. Call me and I will show you the way. Remember, buy, buy, buy.

I am the oracle, the knower of all and doer of nothing.

Snake Oil is my game, what’s yours?

#86 Entrepreneur on 06.16.17 at 10:20 pm

Have to agree with #1 Owe Canada on “Growing the debt in the economy significantly faster than the economy itself grows seems to have developed into a way of life.”

And so true and back in 2008 when our great leaders believed going into debt was the solution to save all. Should have made cuts to adjust the debt spending to align with the economy. At least try to adjust.

But some blogger mentioned on yesterday’s blog that this is global now. So what is the real border and the real map out there? Oh, does it have a flag?

#87 Smoking Man on 06.16.17 at 10:33 pm

Canada https://youtu.be/wJVpihgwE18

#88 Shyster Realtor on 06.16.17 at 10:33 pm

#85 Al Sinclair

IMO Al Sinclair has a dishonest face and the words that come out of his mouth scream shyster scumbag. Any realtor IMO who advises their client to buy in this crashing GTA market is nothing but a dirty shyster. I would bet So is a high school drop out.

#89 BillyBob on 06.16.17 at 10:35 pm

#84 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.16.17 at 10:04 pm
It’s sad but true your money is safer off in offshore tax havens.
—————————————————-
You know, it need not be for tax reasons that someone has a bank account in Liechtenstein or Switzerland, but rather just for the security that comes with it. However you’ll never see the press portraying these kinds of accounts as being for any use other than criminal.

====================================

Interesting – before I had even read down to this comment I had been drafting a comment in my head about this very thing. I’ve been living outside of Canada for over a decade, forced to look for work elsewhere by instability and poor prospects in my field (airline pilot). All of my money is legitimately earned, but my principal bank accounts are in Switzerland, I only keep a basic account in my country of residence for daily banking needs. It’s only prudent when you’ve lived in some of the places I have, and standard for expats.

100% above board, but trying mentioning to any Canadian that you have a Swiss bank account and their head explodes in suspicion and envy.

Although I am still (mostly) proud to identify as one, I do increasingly find Canadians to be pretty small-minded. For some reason there’s this inflated sense of self-importance in a country with 0.5% of the world’s population.

#90 Rich Young on 06.16.17 at 10:37 pm

CALGARY TO JOIN THE PARTY? 2,050 listings so far this month as owners are seeing people paying retard prices for properties. 12 condos in 1 building. 5 homes on the same street up for sale. Soon prices should fall. I’ve been sitting on my hands keeping my powder dry for years waiting to buy a home for my family. Let this be the start of something big. Stock Market to crash first?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdYXGhY4Dpk

#91 Millenial905er on 06.16.17 at 10:40 pm

#66 Millenial905er on 06.16.17 at 8:45 …. —

…..

You’re not working, right? Government topped-up mat leave? — Garth

There’s a difference between taking legislated leave once in 20 years of work vs people not working for years on end (neighbors), or parents of toddlers (not within the confines of mat/pat leave)…. Etc etc.

I need to get out of this region. Too many trust fund brats.

Besides, I was merely sympathizing.

#92 blah on 06.16.17 at 10:40 pm

#66 Millenial905er on 06.16.17 at 8:45 pm

I literally just had this discussion with my husband only 20 minutes ago! I am on maternity leave and am amazed by the number of people who have the luxury to drop off and pick up their kids at school 8:50 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. when I go shopping I see lots of working-age people in stores shopping. All the kids groups I’ve attended have been filled with parents of toddlers who drive fancy cars and have nice clothes. There’s a couple on my block with two kids and neither parent Works yet they seem to have lots of money. It’s got me wondering whether I’ve been working all these years to pay for other people’s benefits. Both my husband and I have been working since the age of 14. We now have government jobs (trust me we work really hard) with long commute times. I’ve worked hard and played it safe my whole life.. seeing these loafers makes me hope that we finally get a recession so that they get a dose of reality.

——————————
That was such an embarrassing representation of a government employee.

My wife and I walk our kids to/from school every day and if you lived near us you’d see we’ve leased a range rover previously.

The part you wouldn’t see is that we own 2 small restaurants which she runs and I also work a full time job in IT.

You also wouldn’t see that we didn’t receive any maternity money (although that was our own fault).

There is a growing number of people out there who work flexible hours and sometimes from home.

Work smarter, not harder. And don’t be so blinded by jealousy.

#93 Jr on 06.16.17 at 10:43 pm

Has anyone been following Smoking Man’s Twitter videos?

He reminds me very much so of the late Hunter S Thomson.

Except Smoky seems to be a stud with the ladies and the Go Go girls!

#94 Surf the gravity waves on 06.16.17 at 10:48 pm

#77 Smoking Man on 06.16.17 at 9:31 pm

#61 Asterix1 on 06.16.17 at 8:20 pm
#10 Smoking Man on
Housing Market in Toronto
6,582 Residential Properties for sale now
2,731,571 People in Toronto
Property for sale / People =0.002409602

This calculation might make more sense:

2,731,571 people divided by 6,582 homes for sale =
1 home for sale for every 415 people

690,000 families divided by 6,582 homes for sales =
1 home for sale for every 104 families.

Just saying in Toronto, things not so bad. I have an outdated resume or get on your hands and knees and plead for acceptance. I Don’t roll that way. No degree here.

I’ve been getting a minimum of 2 head hunters a day begging to present me, A VBA guru with trade floor experience, Ha the idiots in IT departments 10 years ago thought Excel VBA would be extinct. The truth is they can’t support it, it’s a self-taught thing that everyone loves but it’s not taught. Supply and demand bitches is all I’m saying.

So my conclusion is the Toronto Job market red hot, rates are based on labor pool availability and not the inflation word. Designed to fool idiots.

So my official call, Toronto, or any property on a go train line is golden. The burbs, forklift labor force won’t do so good.

I haven’t responded to any headhunters, this entrepreneur who gives away for free an invoicing system that is better than anything out there.

I’ve had 11k downloads in North America, 17 requests for customization leading to 22k in sales and it only cost me 675 dollars on Google Adwords. With 11 hours of labor to satisfy the 22k.

I’m amazing, hammered by night, hung over by day, beating up globalist 24/7 f-en tax thieves and having the time of my life away from their control working for the machine.

Posted a LinkedIn joke to former 7 figure co-workers. Not one like, oh the fear from DM after they saw what he did to a school buddy.

More vids from Seneca tonight.

To watch self-destruction in real time follow me on twitter @smokingman

….
Branson and Oprah and their fellow Antiguan’s are gonna be demanding better teeth than that dude. Nice set of trailer park chicklets ya got there.

#95 WUL on 06.16.17 at 10:48 pm

WOOHOO!!

Got a letter from Service Canada. Good news. I took my CPP last December two months shy of my 61st birthday. But because I have paid into it since, my monthly receipt is increasing $1.62 and I get $6.48 retroactive.

I’m buying A beer tonight. Who is joining me? Bring a straw with you.

#96 Gary yee on 06.16.17 at 10:57 pm

“But, hey, anything’s possible. Trump is president, after all.”

And in communist Canada a former substitute drama teacher is prime Minister. Yay.

He was an MP for eight years. Is your resume better? — Garth

#97 Cashed out in Vancouver on 06.16.17 at 11:08 pm

#64 choptstix on 06.16.17 at 8:35 pm
smart dude, tell us more…where did you end up?
the island like so many wish to go to? please do share.
and congrats…Vancouver is increasingly like the Kim Kardashians how: has nice curves, T&A, but underneath all the $$$ and bling is a shallow emptiness.
Vancouver a world class city (like NY, London or Paris): lol…not.

————————————————————
Thanks, it seemed like the right time to get out, take the money and run, and yes I agree with your shallow emptiness comment. After 35 years of living in Vancouver, it’s not the same city it once was…
I considered the Island, it has many wonderful qualities, the eventual earthquake scares me.
So I’ve chosen the South Okanagan, It has 4 seasons, and I’ll be able to enjoy life… some wine…and no traffic.
( and I’m only 60km from Kelowna if I need to fly somewhere warm in the winter )

#98 Kablamo on 06.16.17 at 11:10 pm

Can someone here explain the difference in deposit insurance for credit unions? I’m understanding the part about how mortgages are a large chunk of their holdings, but I’m not understanding why provincial deposit insurance should be trusted less than the federal one.

#99 Surf the gravity waves on 06.16.17 at 11:10 pm

#83 WUL on 06.16.17 at 10:00 pm

#77 Smokes:

“I have an outdated resume or get on your hands and knees and plead for acceptance. I Don’t roll that way. No degree here.”
…..

I’m right behind you. My employer in Fort McMisery has run out of money so I am being skidded end of June. So, I’m southbound to the succor provided by kin, friends and the homestead in Calgary.

I’ve sent out my last resume. That tome screamed age and and nicotine stains.

I’m about to become a job creating entrepreneur. Not selling tin doors door to door though. Hanging up the shingle to rail on against injustice on behalf of well heeled clients. With luck.

This pathetic blog’s comment section will need a new faithful correspondent from the Taiga. Small shoes to fill.
..

There should be some good opportunities with Trump’s defence team.. lawyering up!

#100 dakkie on 06.16.17 at 11:19 pm

Canada Real Estate Sales DROP SHARPLY! If This Continues, Recession Is VERY Close!

http://investmentwatchblog.com/canada-real-estate-sales-drop-sharply-if-this-continues-recession-is-very-close/

#101 Main St on 06.16.17 at 11:23 pm

Just my experience, take it for what it is worth:
I signed up for a sold/for-sale report for the Main St neighbourhood in Vancouver.

Typically the realtor report would could back, once a month, with a lot ‘for sale’ and with ‘sold’ in a minority (by far!)

This month’s report is quite different: pretty much everything is either ‘sold’ or a ‘new listing’, very few for sales any more.

The ones that were sitting, and not moving for ages, are even labelled as ‘sold’ now.

It’s only a one month trend, but if it holds then, man, is YVR on fire again.
I guess the spring market did come, just a little later than normal.
As an aside: not healthy though, if it went up hard again after just a small little pause.

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.16.17 at 11:34 pm

Worked 30 years in the echelon of two major CUs in the Lower Mainland.
Beware:
Speculation is rampant.
Highly leveraged mortgages, concentrated in the Lower Mainland.
Playing with high risk Commercial Mortgages, with little experience in that area.
You roll the dice.

#103 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.16.17 at 11:41 pm

Trudy is trying to push Mutti around.
Pretty pathetic.
His father must be turning in his grave.

https://ipolitics.ca/2017/06/14/der-spiegel-doubles-down-on-claim-trudeau-pushed-merkel-to-appease-trump/

#104 Get The Ball Rollin' on 06.17.17 at 1:22 am

Tired of waiting for government action to cool the market or ensure affordable housing? Tired of watching a complete lack of political will to address the most pressing issue facing many communities?

For those of you sitting on the sidelines and renting with cash in hand, here is the best way to start the correction yourselves to increase the supply of houses for sale:

1. Report to the CRA all past landlords that may have either gouged you and/or failed to report rental income. An audit and/or penalties will instil the fear. You will be surprised on for sale signs pop up on those properties.

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/leads/

2. If a rental ad has a ridiculous rent, respond to the ad and let them know that they will be reported to the CRA for unreported rental income.

3. If a rental clearly has an illegal suite, respond to the ad and let them know that they will reported to the CRA for unreported rental income AND the local government – the local government will send out a bylaw enforcement officer.

4. Report all ‘for sale ads’ on MLS with illegal suites (everyone knows the code words) to the CRA for unreported rental income. Respond to the ad and let the realtor know that it is being reported to the CRA and the local bylaw enforcement officer.

You will be surprised by what happens…

Start tacking action yourselves if you want change. Or you can wait and continue to be priced out.

#105 Where's The Money Guido? on 06.17.17 at 1:29 am

In Vancouver’s Province today:
n Part 2 of this story on Monday, Postmedia News will look at a growing number of loan fraud cases in Metro Vancouver’s red hot real estate market, and criticism that the provincial government has too few fraud investigators.
More proof of the fox (Rennie) guarding the henhouse of Crusty Cluck.
Some good bigly reading on Monday fer sure.
Happy insolvency everyone!!!!
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-real-estate-in-the-red

#106 Where's the Subprime Crash? on 06.17.17 at 1:51 am

Ouch…all those shorting Home Capital Group got burned again today.

A new settlement and new highs of over $14 bucks! When it was crashing to $5, it was supposed to be the much anticipated crack in the armour of the lending industry.

Looks like they are back on the mend! Just like the Vancouver market!

Bears will never get it. Real estate only goes up in Canada!

#107 Cloudy on 06.17.17 at 1:57 am

To #97 Kablamo on 06.16.17 at 11:10 pm:

In BC it is administered by FICOM. Essentially it’s backed by the Province but in a fund called CUDIC. If the fund was exhausted I would assume the province would make up the difference but who knows what shenanigans the province would get up to if the economy was in that state. They say that funds (non equity) in credit unions in bc are guaranteed to an unlimited amount. Not quite as big a guarantor as the Feds but I’m not losing sleep with my savings and my business account both at a credit union.

#108 MF on 06.17.17 at 2:07 am

Millenial905er

-Not everyone works 9-5, Monday to Friday. Those days are long gone (40 years ago). Many work from home as well.

Seeing people at the mall or outside means zero.

MF

#109 Slippery cricket on 06.17.17 at 2:12 am

So much for HCG going to zero. Workmate bought at $7 now doubled his money, good for him.I Didn’ see that turn around coming,that’s why I’m best off as passive index investor.

#110 NoName on 06.17.17 at 2:38 am

After hard day at work i want irish read head, but i only have ingredients for irish mule. I guess i guess this day is getting better and better…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3PMCD7aMRI

#111 Jessica on 06.17.17 at 2:39 am

#66 Millenial905er

“Does anyone work anymore?

I am on maternity leave and am amazed by the numbed of people who have the luxury to drop off and pick up their kids at school 8:50 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. when I go shopping…”

First kid, right?

So who is going to drop off and pick up your 5-year-old from school?

You do realize raising kids is work, right? Otherwise are you in for a shocker. Paid or unpaid, you’re about to embark on the toughest job of your life. And you, as the mother, may very well end up sacrificing your career to meet that larger societal obligation. Even if you do manage to go back before school age comes along and pay $10,000s in daycare fees, your child will impose limits on your work life. No matter how deeply that frustrates you, your career will never be the same. As a result of having kids your CPP will be lower when you retire than it would have been, than your husband’s will be. I could go on and on, but I will leave it to you to discover for yourself the price a woman pays in terms of equitable pay, career advancement, even the ability to get out of the damn house to work, in our country, for having kids.

But you’re in gov, so you might be lucky in that way. But, pls, don’t be so smug about something you don’t know anything about yet. Seriously, how do you think kids get to and from school? They don’t parent themselves, you know.

When you say,
“Both my husband and I have been working since the age of 14”
you do realize people save enough to retire in less years than that, right? Maybe, you’re the “loafers” after all.

#112 House rich? on 06.17.17 at 2:56 am

Ranked fifth for household millionaires

http://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4164322

#113 chopstix on 06.17.17 at 3:14 am

101…see today’s Vancouver sun story on these very issues…
“Risky mortgages, shadow bankers threaten Vancouver housing market.”
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-real-estate-in-the-red/amp

#114 chopstix on 06.17.17 at 3:20 am

Today’s globe and mail on Scamcouver
“Vancouver mayor seeks ottawa’s help to prevent real estate fraud”
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vancouver-mayor-seeks-ottawas-help-to-prevent-real-estate-fraud/article35347432/?ref=https://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile

#115 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.17.17 at 3:24 am

#3 Doug t on 06.16.17 at 6:13 pm
With the push to have a cashless society the banks hold VERY little actual cash in their banks. Hypothetically if I was worried about my bank and said to them “hey I want my $400k in cash now” good luck – 2 years ago I went to take $25k out – they had the gall to ask me what it was for – MY MONEY – I told them none of their business – then I had to wait 4 days before they could get the cash from vancouver. Once we go to crypto currencies completely then we will have more and more issues surrounding accessibility and control.
====================================

You ain’t seen nothin yet!
We can only hope that our voters and leaders will respect our privacy and place laws regarding the respect of our property and currency.

With the absence of cash it will only take one demagogue government to switch off the finances of anyone who they don’t like.

Think it will not happen?

It is happening right now with regularity. People who say something against popular opinion are now being fired from their jobs.
Companies are hiding behind their faceless bureaucracy and saying we don’t condone such opinions and therefore this person is not a fit for our company.

This sends a frigid chill throughout our society and free speech.

It won’t be long before some nutbar who says something against Jews or Women will be severely punished with a switching off of all plastic in his wallet.
I am not in defense of nutbar opinions but I am terrified of losing freedom of speech.

After the Nutbars are taken care of it is a short step away from switching off the financial lives of political opponents.

#116 John on 06.17.17 at 6:43 am

Since most families are toast within one month of the loss of a job, when job loss accelerates then selling assets will pick up. Millions will accelerate credit card use and collapse consumer spending, sell stuff, deplete their balanced portfolios and try to rent. Rent what? Rent controls will disappear rentals. Then what? Face it, if Real estate is the prime pumper of Canada’s economy, smoking oil etc., then when real estate blows, so will everything.

#117 John on 06.17.17 at 7:16 am

Ratings agencies downgraded our big banks. Big message. There isn’t enough money in CMHC to bail out our banks when home owners go under. Bail-ins? Not enough. Worse, these honking big banks ditch the mortgages they issue into Mortgage Backed Securities and the losers there are reissued into Collateralized Debt Obligations. If this sounds like the the movie, the Big Short, it is. Still. So the bigger news is that Janet Yellen is now paying out the Treasuries as theymature and NOT buying new one. (Kiss Trumps projects and higher debt ceiling goodbye). Someone out there on Wall Street will have to BUY the treasuries. (The Saudis will have to buy Treasuries to pay for their war toys) She is also ditching The Feds Hoard of Collaterized Debt Obligations. Wall Street will have to buy. Ha. And when Central Banks become the largest buyer of bank stocks, auto stocks, war machine stocks, and so on, what do we have? There will be no price discovery anywhere if that happens. Is a reasonable guess. Does this mean the Shorts will be slaughtered this time? Dunno. But the average beaver is outa gas, broke by debt, likely to be unemployed and can’t pay car leasing bill next month either. Their house debt will be underwater and the banks will be demand more money to keep CMHC off their backs. Banks will be calling in unsecured lines if credit, increasing monthly credit card payments and limiting your daily max on debit card withdrawals. As a reasonabke going to the mattresses response. Likely, all asset classes will collapse, just as the Titanic sank all assets on board. Balanced investment as safe? Likely only if Yellen, Carney and Poloz etc., do a Kuroda and buy directly on the stock exchanges or through backdoor floating of the Wall Street hucksters.

#118 maxx on 06.17.17 at 7:17 am

#1 Owe Canada on 06.16.17 at 5:58 pm

I hear ya. Overheard at Starbucks yesterday:

A guy with a financial advisor, talking, no, almost shouting about how to pay off debt, move stuff around for tax, etc.

The client eventually veers off into talking about his summer holiday plans. He intends to buy a camper van for it. He’s in debt and wants to BUY the vehicle. By all means, don’t drive and camp, don’t borrow one or rent it, but BUY the damned thing.

Makes you scratch your head. Money has become so cheap, that people hire others (and pay for the privilege) to create convoluted plans for debt repayment, but just so they can keep on borrowing.

All of the new regs that all levels of gubbmint come out with could be eliminated with a stroke of one pen, were the BOC to do its damned job and restore the value of money. If we carry on with this economy-destroying behaviour, it will be a case of “all the King’s horses and all the King’s men…..”

#119 John on 06.17.17 at 7:29 am

The Chinese will note able to refloat the next plop. This is because their treasury hoard is depleting due to decreased consumption by foreign buyers. Their Silk Road and Belt project is DOA and thus using it to pump action global debt markets out of this unfolding global mess is also DOA. They have little reason to stay latched to the US buck and will massively devalue in surprise moves over weekend lulls. Didn’t go too well in August 2015 now did it. What’s left? War stocks? Saudis are buying the next round.

#120 John on 06.17.17 at 7:51 am

Currently the US has zero aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf. One is now parked by Israel. Zero are parked by North Korea. A merchant ship rammed a US missile launching ship tagging along with the USS Vinson. Now that’s an interesting story. And when the military hardware starts getting rammed in the Middle East, then what? Oil prices rise? Shale and tarsand oils will likely pump, but not enough to field consumption. Prices rise, rationing shuts down economic activity? Prices shut down economic activity. Commuters get hammered. Asset classes get ditched. The CBOs start buying assets with their ballast balancing act. Dunno. But it must be considered. We can reasonably conclude that granitized kitchens, his and her walk-in closets, sunroom additions, the housing Reno industry will be toast along with the malls and Amazon stocks. Including their online grocery business. Although, gas rationing might encourage the home delivery sector. Boomers sitting in bigger houses can expect kids with their kids to settle in. Mini condos will ghost themselves. Retirement travel industry. Well, hey, over booking by disappearing airlines will be interesting stories with a history fable. Along with their stocks. So, here we are 100 years after Vimy Ridge and outa gas.

#121 Cheekmonster on 06.17.17 at 7:54 am

#105 Where’s the Subprime Crash?
HCG – A new settlement and new highs of over $14 bucks!

—————————

Wasn’t Home Capital Group up around $50 bucks at one time and even $30 earlier this year?

#122 Howard on 06.17.17 at 8:25 am

#105 Where’s the Subprime Crash? on 06.17.17 at 1:51 am
Ouch…all those shorting Home Capital Group got burned again today.

———————————-

Yeah now it’s only down 55% from the year’s high instead of 80%.

#123 sue on 06.17.17 at 8:32 am

#114 NEVER GIVE UP

I couldn’t agree more. Have you researched “Sustainable Development”? (Agenda 21, 2030) It’s code for controlling all aspects of human life.

The newest tech is the implantable chip (RFID I believe) that holds all of your finances. This can be turned off by the big govt at any time. Chilling ideas for sure. I keep this stuff mostly to myself because the other sheep with their “group think” will pounce. It sounds crazy but they are promoting this microchip on regular TV shows like it’s the greatest thing ever.

Free speech is already a thing of the past I’m afraid. Don’t worry though, the government will take care of everyone lol

#124 Canada will be fine on 06.17.17 at 8:32 am

Real estate may be toast but at least we have a tattooed, uneducated hipster prime minister right? USA has one of the most successful businessmen of all time in charge. Whether you like him or hate him you can’t argue that.

‘Uneducated’? Trudeau has three degrees. That stupidity negated your comment. — Garth

#125 sue on 06.17.17 at 8:37 am

Best thing ever. :) http://www.globalresearch.ca/australia-becomes-first-country-to-begin-microchipping-its-population-rfid-implants-in-the-human-body/5549286

#126 Pete on 06.17.17 at 9:04 am

Home Capital deposits kept crashing today. GIC dropped another $13 million while HISA dropped $5 million to below $98 million. HISA has dropped from more than $2 billion at the end of March and is fast going to zero.

All those who bought Home Capital stocks will get burned very bad, very very bad.

#127 Calgary Scared on 06.17.17 at 9:39 am

We are trying to sell in Calgary. The place is priced comparably after one month we had practically zero interest. We lowered our price hoping someone bites. The scary thing is that *if* we (by some miracle) do sell, do we rent or do we buy? I would rather rent, partner wants to buy. We have no retirement plan/savings and if we buy, we will have more money “invested” in our ‘home’ than in our future. Maybe *not* selling isn’t so bad after all.

#128 MF on 06.17.17 at 9:47 am

#114 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.17.17 at 3:24 am

The idea of free speech has limits though. We have “nutbars” running around posting how they are going to blow up malls and drive cars into people all over social media months or years before they actually do it.

Why would a company trying to sell products to the greatest amount of customers openly stand by an employee who does such a thing? Why would they want that person interacting with other employees, causing friction and reducing productivity in the workplace?

Words have consequences. That’s something we humans learn at a young age.

The comment about Jews and Women is off though, considering history has shown these groups have actually had their property, currency, and freedom seized by a rogue demagogue government in the past. Laughable to have someone living in modern day Canada comparing that hypothetical situation to the actual events of the past.

MF

#129 sue on 06.17.17 at 10:07 am

MF Free speech stops at death threats but freedom to offend has to be protected. This whole “causing friction at work” is a problem only if someone allows it to cause friction. YOU DO NOT HAVE THE RIGHT TO NOT BE OFFENDED. You can choose to ignore someone who disagrees with you. Sick and tired of this snowflake generation.

#130 NoName on 06.17.17 at 10:17 am

interesting read,

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-chart-spells-out-in-black-and-white-just-how-many-jobs-will-be-lost-to-robots-2017-05-31?mod=mw_share_twitter

#131 Dominoes Lining Up on 06.17.17 at 10:25 am

Quebec’s credit rating has just been upgraded, passing Ontariowe.

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/06/16/quebec-credit-rating-surpasses-ontario-for-first-time-ever

The government has actually been paying down debt. Ontario has been trying to live off the housing bubble at the provincial and local level for far too long.

And Quebec home prices are almost reasonable.

This won’t end well…..

#132 TnT on 06.17.17 at 11:05 am

#123 Canada will be fine on 06.17.17 at 8:32 am

USA has one of the most successful businessmen of all time in charge. Whether you like him or hate him you can’t argue that.

Watch this and have another go at posting something about Trump.

“Get me Roger Stone”
https://www.netflix.com/ca/title/80114666

Trailer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IPyv4KgTAA

Wake up people and spend the time needed to educate yourselves

#133 Renter's Revenge! on 06.17.17 at 11:13 am

#110 Jessica on 06.17.17 at 2:39 am
#66 Millenial905er

“Does anyone work anymore?

“Seriously, how do you think kids get to and from school?”

==============================

Seriously, I thought they could walk! Maybe there’s a law against that now?

Actually, I read that only half the population has a job. Sorry, I can’t remember the source, but when you take into account kids, seniors, the unemployed looking for a job and the unemployed who’ve given up, you get close to 50%. Which explains 50% tax rates, because half the population is sharing the wealth with the other half.

Also, if you think about all the shift work jobs out there and the fact that most businesses are open evenings and weekends, it explains why there are so many people wandering around at all hours of the day.

#134 MF on 06.17.17 at 11:35 am

Sue,

What’s with the snow flake comment?

Can you read?

You said it yourself: free speech stops at death threats. Which was my point.

Sick and tired of people like you: delusional

MF

#135 re., 123 on 06.17.17 at 11:52 am

‘USA has one of the most successful businessmen of all time in charge.’

………

not even close, good grief. BTW, any idea when his policies become law. Red guys have control of congress and senate. No excuses allowed

#136 InvestorsFriend on 06.17.17 at 12:17 pm

Bank Bail-In Canada Style Further Explained

Owners of stocks and bonds would be expected to pony up the cash to save a bank while anyone with a CDIC-insured deposit would not.

*************************************
Well, owners of stocks are of course already fully at risk if a bank fails. They don’t have to send in cash but they could stop getting a dividends and the market price of the common shares could head to zero.

Owners of preferred shares and bonds also will not have to literally send in cash but they could find their bonds and preferred shares converted to common shares . (This is the essence of the bail-in right here as it adds to the banks common equity and lowers its debt.) These investors stop receiving interest and dividends and now own bank common shares that would have a suspended dividend and a low market price.

If this along with the bank issuing equity shares does not provide enough equity capital for the bank then the bail-in fails and the bank still has to be taken over by a competitor or the regulator. In which case the common shares would almost certainly be worthless.

A more severe bail-in would convert some or all deposits to common shares. THAT is expressly NOT what is planned as Garth has explained.

Bail-ins are about the right hand side of the balance sheet the equity capital. Cash is on the left and is a liquidity issue. When a bank looks like it might run low on equity then a run on the bank could occur.

A bank needs to maintain BOTH the liquidity to make good on withdrawals at all times and the equity and other capital on the right hand side of the balance sheet to demonstrate strength and satisfy capital requirements of regulators. A strong equity capital level breeds confidence and avoids runs on the cash liquidity side of the balance sheet.

P.S. Agreed, not going to happen.

The first thing any bank should do if threatened with big losses, that would push its equity too low, is to issue as many common shares as needed at whatever price it can get. The first directive is to have capital to protect depositors and then debt lenders and then pref lenders. The value of the common shares should absolutely be sacrificed as shares are sold at whatever price it takes to raise needed equity. Any bank president failing to do this should face jail. In this scenario I find it hard to understand why a bail-in of debt and pref shares would ever be needed or deposits would EVER be threatened.

Home Capital NEVER faced much depletion of equity but if they had they should have issued shares even at $5.00. Home faced a liquidity crisis brought on by fears of what the regulator was going to do to them and by depositors fleeing out of perhaps unfounded fears.

If Home Capital thought it would face big losses on mortgages (no indication of that yet) it should absolutely have issued common shares at fire sale prices to protect its depositors and debt investors. First directive of ethical banking.

#137 Asterix1 on 06.17.17 at 12:18 pm

This person is trying to either sell or rent this condo in my neighbourhood. At least it’s big (1500sq) but too much cash/costs. 2433 – 33 Harbour Square.

RENT: 3200$
Or
BUY: 950,000$

Mortgage with 20% down = 3520$
Maintenance cost = 1230$
Property tax= 355$
Total costs per month= 5105$

1. This owner is losing 1905$ per month since rent cannot pay all costs. That’s 22,860$ per year.

2. You would also forgo 190,000$ (Down payment 20%) and 31,000$ in land transfer tax that could have been invested.

3. Doubt prices will go up on this unit, down yes. Huge gamble for a speculative buyer. Even for someone who want to live there, too much cash, risk and loss of equity.

On market for 77 days. Renting this would also be nuts, you move in, new owner buys the place, kicks tenants in 60 days.

#138 3 degrees on 06.17.17 at 1:02 pm

Trudeau has 3 degrees in what? Arts? Teaching? He failed out of engineering, don’t kid yourself. Guy isn’t bright. Also, his daddy paid for his schooling and pretty much everything else in his life. I don’t hate the guy by any means, but let’s be realistic.

He is prime minister. And you are… what? — Garth

#139 hmmm on 06.17.17 at 1:08 pm

#92 blah on 06.16.17 at 10:40 pm
——————————
That was such an embarrassing representation of a government employee.

My wife and I walk our kids to/from school every day and if you lived near us you’d see we’ve leased a range rover previously.

The part you wouldn’t see is that we own 2 small restaurants which she runs and I also work a full time job in IT.

You also wouldn’t see that we didn’t receive any maternity money (although that was our own fault).

There is a growing number of people out there who work flexible hours and sometimes from home.

Work smarter, not harder. And don’t be so blinded by jealousy.
———–
So you’re kids are happier because you have a Range Rover in the driveway? Sounds like you’re making decisions based on your jealousy of the Joneses ..

#140 jess on 06.17.17 at 1:11 pm

owed ~800m in back taxes in Australia paid 1/10th

In 2013, two of Li Ka-shing’s companies that own the energy infrastructure were sued by the ATO for unpaid taxes, interest and penalties of $760 million for taxes owed between 2000 and 2009. A federal judge ruled in favour of the ATO after the companies failed to lodge any documents in the case.

2015

Li Ka-shing and Spark Infrastructure – both big players in the Victorian and South Australian electricity markets – So avid a tax minimiser is Asia’s richest man that he is now shifting his $30 billion business empire from Hong Kong to the Cayman Islands.
==============
Spark is perhaps the worst offender, being pinged for more than $700 million in penalties by the Tax Office for a cavalcade of offences: overclaiming for deductions on shareholder loans, overclaiming for labour costs, overclaiming for motor vehicle costs, overcharging rent to related entities and overclaiming for rebates to customers in Victoria. ”
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/tax-strategies-may-distort-power-sales-20150322-1m4w52.html
————————————–
wash rinse and spin dry have they reformed?
The Panama Papers: Secrets Of The Super Rich – Full Documentary

herding
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBmLMVHzrX4
Top secret deals in Panama allows the rich to build vast banks of hidden wealth. Kings, criminals, presidents and prime ministers have been outed for dodging the rules and having assets stashed in tax havens abroad.

see
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/

#141 Vanno on 06.17.17 at 1:52 pm

What is a biggie about not having cash right away from your local credit union? Give them a 1 week notice and there your cash go. They have insurance on a certain amount of cash at a branch that they can’t exceed. I myself work for a CU in Vancouver. Very conservative in terms of loans and mortgages.

#142 Krissa on 06.17.17 at 1:56 pm

I believe we are all living in a new world order!! Nothing makes sense in Vancouver real estate!! I am more and more disheartened with every sold sign I see! Wich I see everywhere here in the Vancouver burbs!! Although I don’t think the kids behind us can afford their condo!! We can hear the little Mrs screaming like a banshee with audible exploitive slime can’t afford, and they’re going to Vegas!! Why don’t I ever get anything, followed by mostly silence, until the roar of exasperated depleted young hubby! Don’t think this will end well!!

#143 rainclouds on 06.17.17 at 2:03 pm

What’s that old Cohen song?

“First we take Toronto, then we take Vancouver”

http://vancitycondoguide.com/new-listings-surging-in-vancouver-detached-market/

You would have to be very wealthy or very stupid to purchase anything in Gregorville at this juncture.

#144 Joe Calgary on 06.17.17 at 2:39 pm

#138, Agreed, Trudeau is unfit as a Prime Minister. He is not someone who inspires as a leader.

#145 TurnerNation on 06.17.17 at 2:39 pm

Re-posting on today’s weblog – by mistake:

Typical day in Ontariowe. In short: Unions, Sunshine listers and Globalists cheer.

– Lefties cheer as Toronto’s Trump Hotel to be re-named.

– Crazy letter from local NIMBY against a new house:

https://mobile.twitter.com/PlannerSean/status/875711971223638016

– Creepy Agenda 21 globalists install one of their own.
We are on their hit list of cities. Expect more taxation and banning of First World things like Air Conditioning and Travel. Our elites meanwhile have more money than god:

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/06/15/to-help-prepare-for-catastrophe-toronto-hires-a-chief-resilience-officer.html

“The position of chief resilience officer will be funded for the first two years by 100 Resilient Cities, a non-profit supported by the U.S.-based Rockefeller Foundation. The organization will also provide member cities such as Toronto access to $200 million to help fund research and consultation.”

Your comment is awaiting moderation.

#146 Mark Sinclair on 06.17.17 at 2:43 pm

TnT, you sound desperately jealous

#147 Mark Sinclair on 06.17.17 at 2:45 pm

Wow he’s the Prime Minister, who spends all day taking selfies and not much else. Pretty much any job takes more intelligence and skill than that.

#148 Ashkan on 06.17.17 at 3:04 pm

It will be fun to see Trudeau and his failed staff be eaten alive by the Americans with Nafta. They can always pose for #selfies I guess!

#149 Howard on 06.17.17 at 3:12 pm

#124 Canada will be fine on 06.17.17 at 8:32 am

‘Uneducated’? Trudeau has three degrees. That stupidity negated your comment. — Garth

——————————

Right I’m sure the profs at McGill didn’t give any special treatment to PET’s kid. And given how PET influence-peddled his third son out of drug charges, who’s to say he didn’t have a hand in dimwitted eldest’s acceptance to McGill and other schools?

Anyway my impression of Justin’s intellect was sealed last year when he read a Wikipedia page about quantum physics and regurgitated the content to the fawning media, portraying it as some sort of flash of brilliance.

It was an astute political move. And he’s a politician. Insulting someone says more about you than anyone else. — Garth

#150 sue on 06.17.17 at 3:28 pm

TurnerNation Yes, Agenda 21 is creepy isn’t it? We will be living the 1984 Orwellian dream before we know it. Gotta love the globalist elites and their satanic rituals lol

#151 WUL on 06.17.17 at 3:33 pm

I’m glad that those who diminish Trudeau’s education, career and accomplishments now have another politician to aim their misplaced disdain at, assuming they are principled.

Andrew Scheer, leader of the CPC.

B.A. History

An insignificant stint as an insurance agent in Regina and a career politician at the age of 26 courtesy of the taxpayer.

Level the identical criticisms at him, or stifle it.

#152 sue on 06.17.17 at 3:36 pm

MF
The term “snowflake” refers to a generation of hard leftists that get offended by pretty much anything and think speech should be restricted to protect “feelings”. Death threats are obviously different which is what I originally said.
Someone expressing themselves at work is fine as long as it doesn’t interfere with them doing their job and of course if it isn’t a death threat. People have the option of ignoring someone who doesn’t share their opinion. People need to stop being so brittle. Get it?
Those are my opinions, learn to deal.

‘Snowflake’ is a person who believes they are innately special, unique and deserving of extraordinary treatment. Left or right has no bearing. — Garth

#153 Toronto vs. Halifax on 06.17.17 at 3:38 pm

Median household income (2014): Toronto, $75,270; Halifax, $84,560.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil107a-eng.htm

Average home price (May 2017): Toronto, $863,910; Halifax, $316,035.

http://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/national-average-price-map/

Explain!

#154 handyman on 06.17.17 at 4:18 pm

DELETED

#155 Pete on 06.17.17 at 4:48 pm

#138 3 degrees on 06.17.17 at 1:02 pm
Trudeau. Guy isn’t bright. Also, his daddy paid for his schooling and pretty much everything else in his life.

He is prime minister. And you are… what? — Garth
______________________________

so if you are not a prime minister or president, you can’t criticize Trudeau’s intelligence? But according to most Canadians, politicians are not bright at all. Besides, Harper is much more intelligent than Trudeau. Harper made a name for himself, did not inherit a fortune, worked his way up. Moreover, brought Conservatives three times in power in a land of ultra-left like the NDP and Liberals.

#156 sue on 06.17.17 at 4:50 pm

Garth, I agree with your definition although the modern day use of this term refers to the far left/younger generation because of the way they shut down free speech with violence. (Berkely) To me, the term conjures up images of safe spaces on campus to protect fragile feelings. Snowflakes melt down easily esp with scary words. Free speech is on the right of center. I guess people interpret it the way they want according to their politics but I’ve never heard a leftist call a free speech advocate a “snowflake”. JMHO

#157 Hairhead on 06.17.17 at 6:04 pm

To 3 degrees and Howard — I’m not particularly in favour of Trudeau, but calling him dumb is stupid on many levels.

First, look at the facts.

1) Bachelor of Arts in Literature – McGill University, one of the top-rated universities in Canada
2) Bachelor of Education – University of British Columbia, also an excellent university
3) Two years of study in engineering at the École Polytechnique de Montréal, part of the University of Montreal. (You say he failed out? Provide proof, please.)
4) Started a master’s degree in environmental geography at McGill University, before suspending his program to seek public office.

Believing JT to be “dumb” or “not bright” with these facts requires readers here to believe that not one, but FOUR of Canada’s premier post-secondary institutions accept, teach, and graduate dumb people; and that all of the professors and instructors at these institutions automatically grant favour to the sons of politicians, and that PET personally intervened continually in his sons’ education. I’ll look at proof if you provide it, but I have found none for your assertions.

Now, you may disagree with JT’s politics and policies, which, in fact, I do; but calling him “stupid” is without factual foundation, in other words, a lie. And repeating a lie, once you have the facts disproving it, demonstrates a corrupted personal agenda.

But still, if you have actual proof of him being stupid, show it. Otherwise, if you have points to make base the points on facts rather than personal animus.

#158 SheCallsMeDaddy on 06.17.17 at 6:50 pm

I’m not particularly smitten with Justin Trudeau but when i see donkey comments, i cant hold back.

#149 Howard on 06.17.17 at 3:12 pm
Right I’m sure the profs at McGill didn’t give any special treatment to PET’s kid.

—-If you dont have direct proof of special treatment, its best to keep your donkey conspiracy theories to your own clique. The rest of that comment just makes you look bitter.

#148 Ashkan on 06.17.17 at 3:04 pm
#147 Mark Sinclair on 06.17.17 at 2:45 pm

—–Both comments try to question JTs legitimacy as an able PM because of his selfie taking. If that is the best jab you can come up with then you are unfortunately both donkeys.
Maybe going through with the Saudi Arabian arms deal that Harpers govt devised would give you more fire power.

#159 sue on 06.17.17 at 8:23 pm

The thing about JT that makes me question his intelligence is..

DELETED. This thread is over.

#160 akashic record on 06.17.17 at 9:21 pm

The thing about JT that makes me question his intelligence is..

DELETED. This thread is over.

—-

Good. Now we just have to do the same with Trump.

#161 Smartalox on 06.18.17 at 3:20 am

One more comment about Trudeau and his pursuit of an engineering degree: I often wonder if I talked him out of it.

It was November 2002, watching the Grey cup at my favorite Montreal local. JT was there, before he was a politician, having impressed with the eulogy he’d provided for his father, and getting some attention from some female friends of mine.

I’d struggled to complete my degree a few years before, and had just lost my job in the dot com bust. We talked about engineering and engineering school, and I made the point to tell him not to pursue it, if he didn’t find enjoyment in the work. It wasn’t about the math or the concepts, but about finding satisfaction in what you do. That, and I told him that he didn’t strike me as the middle management, paper-pusher type, which is so often the career trajectory of an engineering grad.

Trudeau is a guy who literally had the option of never having to work a day in his life, ever. He had the pick of women, money, art, cool, everything. Instead he chose to devote himself(ie) to a career that he knew, better than most, could be thankless and demanding, and for which there was no degree, or combination of degrees that could adequately prepare one for the job.

I can’t fault him for that.

#162 chopstix on 06.18.17 at 12:26 pm

the person who posted about Scamcouver real estate, something along the lines of
‘whoever is buying in right now is either very rich, or very stupid.’…best comment on here about this sh*tshow of a city.

#163 EmmEmm on 06.18.17 at 4:05 pm

I see my friends who just immigrated to Canada through Express Entry are buying their first homes “suggested” by their other friends who came to Canada few years back.

They think its the sure shot way of becoming rich overnight. So much for the indebtedness to banks !!

I think the market we are in right now, as Will Rogers rightly said, “the quickest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket”

#164 Mattl on 06.19.17 at 9:54 am

Well the market is cruising along in the Fraser Valley, no matter what the pink pollen guy says. Listed last Tuesday nd Accepted an offer yesterday on our house for a hair under full pop, only subject to inspection. Highest sale for this style home in our neighbourhood. When we bought 7 years ago we set the low bar as well so we timed it perfect.

Unfortunately we now need another place so hoping for a turbo correction!