Stats and lies

By hood standards, it’s a deal. A little over a million for a reno’d semi in central 416 within walking distance of the subway and endless shops, galleries and eateries. But in the week since this tasty, fresh listing came out there have been zero showings. “In fact,” says the listing agent, “there have been no calls. Except yours.” And I don’t count. I’m just researching a blog post.

The seller bought another place firm two months back, just finished pre-listing renos ten days ago, and is already freaking. “I expect a price reduction in another week,” Sandra, the agent, said. So if you’re interested in buying, why not just wait?

This is normal street experience now. Properties for sale everywhere (another 10,500 came on the market in the Golden Horseshoe last week), sparse buyers, few deals. Every week since April momentum’s been lost. Supply is overwhelming demand. Purchasers can buy conditionally upon financing or home inspections. There are no bidding wars. Offer nights are gone – you’re free to make one whenever you want.

According to the pop realty website known as Zolo, here’s the latest in terms of Toronto prices (down 4.6% in the past month) and listings (7,055 new ones in the last 28 days):

GTA prices blow off...

...as listings swell and sales sag

Well, that seems definitive enough. But, wait. Here’s a completely different story being told by the brain trust at Teranet-National Bank. According to this outfit Toronto (and Vancouver) real estate is reaching for the moon, just as it was two months ago.

OTTAWA – Canadian home prices rose in May as Toronto remained robust despite recent government efforts to cool the market, while prices in Vancouver picked back up to hit a fresh high.. The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, which measures changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, showed prices rose 2.2 per cent last month. Compared with a year ago, prices were up 28.7 per cent in Toronto and 23.5 per cent in Hamilton, a record for both. For Toronto, Canada’s largest city, it was the fourteenth consecutive month of acceleration in home prices on an annual basis, the report said.

As for YVR, the TNB house price index is equally bullish and unequivocal:

It’s taken nine months, but the Vancouver housing market may have finally shaken off the foreign buyers tax, data from a home price index suggested. The Teranet-National Bank of Canada House Price Index showed that Vancouver home prices grew by 8.2 per cent year-over-year in May, and 1.46 per cent month-over-month. The index reached its highest level since September 2016, which was one month after a 15 per cent property transfer tax on foreign buyers came into effect in Metro Vancouver.

Well, obviously Zolo is out to lunch with regard to rising listings, sagging sales and downward pressure on prices. The TNB index shows exactly the opposite – acceleration. But, wait. Here’s the Canadian Real Estate Association with fresh numbers showing that government anti-bubble measures have hit the housing brakes hard.

OTTAWA – Resales of Canadian homes dropped 6.2 per cent in May from April, with Toronto sales plunging 25.3 per cent, as new housing policy changes side-swiped demand and new listings rose again, the Canadian Real Estate Association said on Thursday. It was the first full month of housing resale data since the province of Ontario introduced a 16-point plan to rein in the hot housing market in Toronto, Canada’s largest city, amid fears of a bubble.

Meanwhile the Toronto Real Estate Board’s internal numbers reveal sales just fell over 40% from the week before, while the number of available homes soared by more than 35%. And that came atop a 6% price decline in May plus a 20% sales plunge.

It begs the question of whether things are getting rapidly better, or alarmingly worse. On one hand the Vancouver Real Estate board says that market is rebounding, but Capital Economics’ David Madani calls it a ‘head fake’  a 2with0-40% abyss looming.

Well, it’s worth noting that Teranet-National Bank numbers are as stale and largely irrelevant as Kevin O’Leary by the time they’re published. They track ‘solds’ which were registered a couple of months ago, and only those homes for which two sales over time have been recorded.

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking the observed or registered home prices over time. Properties with at least two sales are required in the calculations. Such a “sales pair” measures the increase or decrease of the property value in the period between the sales in a linear fashion. For the Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™, all properties that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index; this is known as the repeat sales methodology.

Over the sweep of decades, this will be a great tool. Social historians will love it. But if you’re trying to time buying a house in a volatile environment, it totally sucks. The media that attributed this data to last month’s activity deserve to be replaced by synths.

How does Zolo do it?

Numbers are based on firm contract dates, not when the transaction is reported or when the contract closes. A contract is firm when both the home seller and buyer agree to the transaction, however this may not be reported in a timely fashion. Therefore, transaction reported dates are when the Realtor submits the sale to their local board. A contract is closed when the transaction actually occurs and the buyers move into the house. Normally, contracts close about 6-8 weeks after a contract is firm, which means the data you’re seeing is reported in real-time.

In other words, when a buyer and a seller agree and the realtors submit the deal, canceling the MLS listing, Zolo reports it. This is also what the local real estate boards do. Yes, it’s imperfect because some deals never close and yet are reported as sales. So board numbers tend to inflate sales activity in any given month.

The point of all this is simple. Taking the market temperature will let you do the right thing when buying or selling – which is exactly the opposite of what everyone else is doing. When bubbles form and FOMO foments, run. When listings pile and sellers moan, strike.

And don’t believe everything you read. Except here, I mean.

120 comments ↓

#1 waiting on the westcoast on 06.15.17 at 6:10 pm

Garth… You forgot about the ‘sales mix’

;-)

#2 Howard on 06.15.17 at 6:14 pm

Check out this “ad” on Craigslist from a Toronto realtor. Quite predatory, pathetic, and somewhat desperate-sounding.

https://toronto.craigslist.ca/tor/reb/6170091448.html

An excerpt:

“5.) You Don’t Want to Build Wealth – As Andrew Carnegie once said, “Ninety percent of all millionaires become so through owning real estate.” If you have a strong aversion to building wealth for yourself and your family – don’t worry about investing in real estate. However, if you are looking for a way to build security, wealth, and freedom – I invite you to learn all you can about real estate investing.
or
Let your tenants pay your mortgage while you get to write off the mortgage payments. The result, the longer you hold the property, the more of the loan principal your tenants are paying down and the more wealth you are creating for yourself. There are also significant tax advantages available. I have a number of income properties with long term tenants in good neighborhoods available. Please give me a call”

#3 Mike on 06.15.17 at 6:20 pm

.

Prices need to crash 20-30% to call it bubble burst. Never going to happen. In the end those who didnt buy in 2010-2014 will lose. This blog said in those times we were overpriced and keep renting. unfortunately those who kept renting lost.

BTW, houses still selling like hot cakes in Vancouver suburbs.

#4 Wrk.dover on 06.15.17 at 6:22 pm

Garth is happy to show; only the facts Ma’m,

#5 TheDood on 06.15.17 at 6:23 pm

#2 Howard on 06.15.17 at 6:14 pm
Check out this “ad” on Craigslist from a Toronto realtor. Quite predatory, pathetic, and somewhat desperate-sounding.

https://toronto.craigslist.ca/tor/reb/6170091448.html

____________________

And I’ll bet any one of you a shiny new dime he gets hundreds of dummies answering that ad with dollar signs in their eyes. Any takers?

#6 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 06.15.17 at 6:32 pm

DELETED

#7 Connections on 06.15.17 at 6:35 pm

Canada needs reporting like this:

Power and Influence: The hard edge of China’s soft power – Four Corners Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNq1PhkQePE

#8 the Jaguar on 06.15.17 at 6:36 pm

‘FAKE NEWS’. Whether it’s real estate, Russians fixing the US election, who shot down the passenger plane over the Ukraine, or who has the stats, wikileaks, or satellite photos to prove it all. It’s all fake blow! No wonder people have to scour the internet for intelligent sites (like this one) to get the real low down. But the average joe hasn’t clued in to this fact. Maybe when he is reading all the BS in the financial section of his local paper he hasn’t noticed all the big advertisements are realtor or real estate related. OMG! One thing that won’t be “fake” is the impact on mortgage payments when interest rates go up. Nothing ‘fake’ about that.

#9 k on 06.15.17 at 6:40 pm

Anyone who would buy a house they want before selling the one they live in must really trust the RE market will go up forever. It’s hugely risky with just one……but two ? Give your head a shake ! Nuts ! You can hear the sweat of fear starting to drip. Dousing the greed it is replacing.

#10 Lefty on 06.15.17 at 6:52 pm

Dallas Federal Reserve – Seasonally adjusted housing prices Canada vs. U.S. long term chart. Stunning!

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/04/19/canada%20housing%20prices.jpg

#11 Lumpia on 06.15.17 at 6:54 pm

End of July stats will be very interesting. Whew

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.17 at 6:56 pm

And.
Hot off the presses at The Economist we have this article about Canada’s Housing Bubble…..

Titled “Maple Grief”

https://outlook.live.com/owa/redir.aspx?REF=Uubc3YtSJtpB87YTBbqUxpSuY03-9VtyFmkwNWaJTBvlb8mKQLTUCAFodHRwczovL2NsaWNrLmUuZWNvbm9taXN0LmNvbS8_cXM9ZGY2MzA5ZWUzODQ3ZWViNGM3MzU4NGUxMTEzZDA5Y2VjYzY3MWUxZTQ5MzE4MjM4ZjJkYjIxYmVjYjM3OTYyZTYxNTRjNWMwNmE0ZmJkYjFkYWIzOGVlZDg5YTc0OWE5ZDA1OGRhMWE0NTMwNzI1ZGQ5MjkyYjVmOGVjYjEyZGY.

#13 MF on 06.15.17 at 6:57 pm

#184 TurnerNation on 06.15.17 at 4:03 pm

“Where are all the CPD whiners? See y’all at $15.”

-Reporting for duty.

MF

#14 Sydneysider on 06.15.17 at 7:02 pm

Teranet reports data “no later than 30 days after the transaction month”. That seems to mean the data are 2 months old or less.

The so-called “hedonic” methodology (or comparing like with like) used by Teranet is otherwise much easier to interpret than aggregated statistics that throw mansions, SFHs, condos and shacks into the same average.

#15 Penny Henny on 06.15.17 at 7:09 pm

Yippie.
Hose closed.
Deal done.
Money in the bank.
See ya later Etobicoke.

#16 Penny Henny on 06.15.17 at 7:09 pm

House closed, hose still open.

#17 Cheekmonster on 06.15.17 at 7:10 pm

Here’s an episode of Hot Property from December, 2008 after BoC cut rates by 75 BP’s.

https://youtu.be/jRkfbyhrszg

#18 Smoking Man on 06.15.17 at 7:16 pm

#15 Penny Henny on 06.15.17 at 7:09 pm
Yippie.
Hose closed.
Deal done.
Money in the bank.
See ya later Etobicoke.
………….

Party on dude:)

#19 yorkville renter on 06.15.17 at 7:18 pm

I wont call it quits for this bull run until end of Sunmer… but it’s shaping up that way!

#20 the tooth fairy on 06.15.17 at 7:19 pm

#8 the Jaguar on 06.15.17 at 6:36 pm
‘FAKE NEWS’. Whether it’s real estate, Russians fixing the US election, who shot down the passenger plane over the Ukraine, or who has the stats, wikileaks, or satellite photos to prove it all. It’s all fake blow! No wonder people have to scour the internet for intelligent sites (like this one) to get the real low down. But the average joe hasn’t clued in to this fact. Maybe when he is reading all the BS in the financial section of his local paper he hasn’t noticed all the big advertisements are realtor or real estate related. OMG! One thing that won’t be “fake” is the impact on mortgage payments when interest rates go up. Nothing ‘fake’ about that.

All true, however, satellites are a hoax, everything attributed to them is done with terrestrial technology. The rise in gps tech coincided with cell towers everywhere, satellites do not exist. you cannot find engineered plans or real photos

#21 Porsche on 06.15.17 at 7:19 pm

A $99 U.S. purchase with my visa cost me $136 Can today

That’s FK’D

#22 me again on 06.15.17 at 7:33 pm

Many comments yesterday about property tax problems.
In Switzerland they have a net worth tax; a typical Canadian might laugh at that, but when you think about it, we have market value assessment, which is worse, because net worth is money you have. your house can be financed to the max and they are taxing us on that amount, ie ‘taxing debt’ if you have a mortgage, so you pay interest on the loan and MVA adds a tax based on ‘value’ which they re assess every two years. the market value is of course irrelevant unless you are selling, and the market value inflates because inflation is built into the system.
so the debt and inflation aspects of MVA equals the mother of all heists, after private central banking of course

#23 YYZ on 06.15.17 at 7:43 pm

https://www.zolo.ca/newmarket-real-estate/trends

It’s worse north of the city

#24 Don Smith on 06.15.17 at 7:46 pm

The bottom line is 10 years from now house prices will be at least 50% to 75% higher and interest rates will be still low.

#25 Freedom First on 06.15.17 at 7:49 pm

Penny Henny

Congrats Penny Henny!

I know the feeling. Good on you.

#26 Dan.t on 06.15.17 at 7:50 pm

Typical real estate dirty industry tactic to keep everyone uninformed.

Really only with real estate can you pad stats, cherry pick stats, and then post conflicting reports.

Is anyone else confused as to what is going on in the real estate markets? Good! The real estate board wants it that way and the vested interest do as well and most Canadians only do what the herd does, and 60% don’t understand how debt and interest rates work.

Imagine financial markets working that way. The stock you just bought is up 20% year over year, but down 8% this month but demand for it is up 85% for a year over year bla bla and just hit a new high….but the price is ??? who the f++k knows. Just know that if you buy it now, you can sell it for double the price in 18 months.

In the end it doesn’t matter. Canadians will keep buying houses, condos and apartments, until the last fool really just can’t afford it. Meaning the bank says to the 24 year old earning $18 an hour and with a bank of mom massive downpayment, “sorry, you just can’t buy that 1 bedroom $680,000 apartment in Vancouver” or that $700,000 townhouse in Langley or 1.2 million house anywhere near a city .

All that matters in life is real estate and how many houses you have and how cool you look at the water cooler. The rest is not important.

#27 Mark on 06.15.17 at 7:54 pm

“The so-called “hedonic” methodology (or comparing like with like) used by Teranet is otherwise much easier to interpret than aggregated statistics that throw mansions, SFHs, condos and shacks into the same average.”

Yes, the Teranet approach, which attempts to compare likes to likes sequentially, is interesting. And as a long-term tool, it works great for calculating over long periods of time. When the index first came out, I was quite enthused to hear that it might overcome some of the problems associated with the rapidly changing sales mix that is typically seen, especially at the tail end of RE bubbles (which, in hindsight, I wrongly believed would occur in 2007-2008 in Canada, not at the actual 2013 peak!).

But it is next to useless as a real-time or near-term index or methodology. See my posts of yesterday, the fundamental flaw being its reliance on a geometric average of price changes over time, rather than a distribution of price changes that is more likely to reflect reality. The net result being that the Teranet index, in actual practice, is the byproduct of significant lag and low-pass filtering.

So if you want to go back to the 1970s, and figure out what a reference Toronto house might be worth 30-40 years later, sure, the Teranet HPI is a great index to use. But trying to use it to predict what your house did price-wise last month or last year, highly inaccurate.

#28 Mike The Bike on 06.15.17 at 7:54 pm

The market has already changed. Our realtor said the other day, just wait it out. Let these properties bake in the summer sun and then you’ll see a change in these delusional sellers. Sure there are still some good properties that are listed at a reasonable price that are going, but either than that, all the overpriced dogs on the market and all the delusional overpriced listings will just sit and sit, until the haze of greed gets replaced with the bigger emotion of FEAR.

#29 Burning Building on 06.15.17 at 7:56 pm

Speaking of real estate. That terrible tragedy in London highrise appears to have been predicted by blogger long before, but lawyers from the city sent him a letter trying to silence him.

Like Canada’s coming housing crisis, it appears that warnings from bloggers (like Garth) are universally ignored until the tragedy actually happens.

Here is the news article:
https://www.rt.com/uk/392272-council-grentfell-blogger-fire/

#30 FilmTO on 06.15.17 at 7:59 pm

I’m still seeing the craziness. I just tried to book a showing for a 500 sq ft studio in Parkdale, listed at $299K. Was informed that it received & accepted a conditional offer for $400K.

#31 toronto1 on 06.15.17 at 8:10 pm

Those charts are not looking good from a pricing standpoint- momentum is down hard.

from and anecdotal perspective i have been watching some listings in the GTA and the lack of sales at even low price points is downright scary

Ive seen detached and semi’s list very low- 500-700K with comparable’s asking 700-999K range on the same street (or a few over) and almost identical units- these low priced units are not selling and are being pulled off the market after 2-3-4 weeks- BUT even with dramatic reduced asking prices there is no activity- this does not bode well for the comparable in the area.

I have seen cases where some external factors (speculators, divorce, death, etc..) that must have forced the sale at 100-150K less then the 10-12 comparable units- now other units are setting or relisting there prices at 50-100K less still with no action and this over a 3 week period. That low price just become the floor and people are not willing to pay more.

its still to early on to know but the last time i saw this type of demand drop was in the 08-09 financial crisis and at that point within a 6 month period prices dropped on average i would say 30% with continued downward momentum- no idea were the floor would have been as the govt brought in ultra low rates.

Other huge thing i have noticed from looking back the the price points of sales in the last 2-3 months is an alarming lack of first time buyers entering the market- the sub 600K sold listings is low– at some point the lack of first time buyers is going to effect the 2-3 rung of the property ladder, maybe that’s what we are seeing now?

#32 conan on 06.15.17 at 8:15 pm

“When listings pile and sellers moan, strike.” -Garth

That is happening now to some extent. However, I do not think things have popped yet. So, I would be waiting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQZAl_GJhb8

#33 choptstix on 06.15.17 at 8:15 pm

#12..never copy from outlook…
The Economist June 17th edition:
”Maple grief:
The lessons from Canada’s attempts to curb its house-price boom
Demand for safe assets from emerging markets creates a headache for policymakers.”
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21723418-demand-safe-assets-emerging-markets-creates-headache-policymakers-lessons

#34 Banana Splat on 06.15.17 at 8:27 pm

It would be nice if Hamilton were following suit. Prices here are still aiming for the stratosphere and inventory is very very low. There is currently about 4 townhouses for sale in the city. 4!!!
Rents have also gone through the roof in the last few years. It’s disappointing to see so many people spend a ton of money on crappy properties!

#35 Smartalox on 06.15.17 at 8:29 pm

Last night’s conversation with the Mrs.:

Mrs.: It says that mortgage delinquencies are very low in Toronto and Vancouver, prices are at record highs!

Me: Mortgage delinquencies are low because house prices are so high: as long as people think their homes are worth more than their mortgages, they’ll continue to pay them. That will change now that interest rates are going up.

Mrs.: But interest rates only went up a quarter point. How will that have an effect?

Me: well, a quarter point difference might mean an extra $150 a month. Maybe not much if all you have is a mortgage, but what if all your monthly payments go up at once? Car loan, Line of Credit, Student Loans… it all adds up.

Mrs.: So people are going to start missing mortgage payments?

Me: I’d bet that many already are; there are a lot of people tapping home equity lines of credit, and taking reverse mortgages to make ends meet. But what’s more is that rising rates mean people only qualify for smaller mortgages – they’ll stop buying houses, and after a while process will start to fall.

Mrs.: But that’s going to take a long time.

Me: (reads Greaterfool) It says here that 40 per cent of people with a HELOC don’t make payments, they just let the interest pile up until they reach their credit limits. Another 25% only pay interest, and can’t pay the actual debt.

Mrs.: So what does that have to do with mortgages?

Me: Well, if the mortgage and the home equity line of credit are both based on the price, or the perceived value of the house, and that starts to fall, the bank can demand that the HELOC be paid at any time.

Mrs.: But if people are already borrowing to make ends meet, where will they find the money to pay their loans?

Me: if they’re smart, they’ll sell their houses. if they’re not, they’ll sell everything else.

Mrs.: It’s going to be a bloodbath, isn’t it.

#36 Triplenet on 06.15.17 at 8:41 pm

A sale is not a sale until the contract is unconditional.
That means all condition precedents have been satisfied/approved or waived.
If the sale doesn’t proceed to completion, then the marketing program continues to find a successive buyer.
Usually this involves a re-list. That means old Realtor out, new Realtor in. No big deal.
This stuff is not difficult to understand. Is it?
Unfortunately yes.

#37 Shawn on 06.15.17 at 8:47 pm

Thanks for the update!

The divergence in the Teranet price index vs sales-to-listings is extreme. If this were a stock market indicator it would signify a rapid capitulating top. Perhaps that’s what we’re seeing in GTA housing. Too bad you can’t just point and click and short the entire market. We’ll probably see a fast rundown in price then a slow declining grind for years…

#38 NoName on 06.15.17 at 8:50 pm

@ mf and tn

Two words HNU dot TO.

#39 Triplenet on 06.15.17 at 8:53 pm

A contract of purchase and sale is not firm or binding until all condition precedents have been satisfied/approved or waived.
Any thing else is …..ignorance.
Completion can be months after the contract date ( the meeting of the minds). The time value adjustment between the dates is not that difficult to quantify.
Up or down.

#40 Spectacle on 06.15.17 at 8:54 pm

#16 Penny Henny on 06.15.17 at 7:09 pm
House closed, hose still open.

Congratulations Penny !
But some greater fool indeed just got hosed.

Keep posting your winning insights.

Regards, M
Ps: I’m still reeling over the post data a few blogs back, indicating the phenomenal number of Helocs that are maxed out, and not even making minimum payments.

#41 When the Whip Comes Down on 06.15.17 at 8:56 pm

#3 Mike – I would hardly call a 20-30 pct correction a crash given the appreciation of the last 2-3 yrs. If we had seen a historically normal ascent in Price’s then yes any adjustment Down of that magnitude would certainly be a crash. The correction that is coming is certainly more likely than not.

#42 Grey Dog on 06.15.17 at 9:22 pm

Crickets in Unionville, nothing moving.

My SIL who moves every 5 years whether she needs to or not does this all the time, caught a few times owning two houses cause one didn’t sell in time…you’d think she would have learned her lesson the first time or two.

#43 Pandam on 06.15.17 at 9:23 pm

The graph labeled “Number of Sales and Inventory” shows a declining sales trend on the left intersecting the ~3500 mark in July 2016. On the right, a declining sales trend approaches the 3500 mark in July 2017.

The real story is the bloating inventory trend, but even that hovers just below 7000 in July 2016 and 2017. Give it a month and anything can happen.

It might take more than a regulations and panic to kill an ideology/religion like the Canadian dream of home ownership. A small dip in price could reignite FOMO and encourage sales in the next month or two, as some people without a mortgage might see a 10% drop as the opportunity of a lifetime.

Lemmings gon’ lemming…

#44 OttawaMike on 06.15.17 at 9:28 pm

Correct link to economist article on Canadian housing:
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21723418-demand-safe-assets-emerging-markets-creates-headache-policymakers-lessons

#45 Leo Trollstoy on 06.15.17 at 9:30 pm

CAD/USD range-bound as both canadian and US economies on solid footing

BoC and Fed to continue to hike

Inflation very comfortable. Deflation a myth.

Gold still sucks. Almost 10 years now.

#46 Still short HCG? LOL on 06.15.17 at 9:37 pm

Stay short HCG…the worlds ending LOL

#47 45north on 06.15.17 at 9:41 pm

Lefty: Dallas Federal Reserve – Seasonally adjusted housing prices Canada vs. U.S. long term chart.

so Canadian prices are approximately double US prices which leads me to think Canadian prices will drop by half! Ross Kay says that the real security behind the banks isn’t CMHC, it’s the Canadian mortgagor

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/mortgagor

we’re about to see the Canadian mortgage holders get squeezed. Like the guy who bought before he sold.

#48 april on 06.15.17 at 9:43 pm

#30 – Don’t know what your talking about. I have friends looking at townhouses and condos in Parskville and can get much larger places for much less than 299.000 but are going to wait it out as they are being advised of further correction on the way.

#49 Leo Trollstoy on 06.15.17 at 9:46 pm

For those who want to secure themselves against an economic downturn or housing crash, go into tech. Programmers get more job offers than they know what to do with. Always in demand!

https://qz.com/1006812/programmers-get-so-many-job-offers-search-site-indeed-created-a-special-spam-filter-to-help-them-deal-with-it/

#50 Dee on 06.15.17 at 9:49 pm

We need more info on who the big alt. lenders are in the GTA. Who are the other big players besides hcg?

#51 Karma on 06.15.17 at 9:52 pm

7% of Toronto RE bought and sold within 1 year

http://www.businessinsider.com/7-of-torontos-homes-are-sold-within-a-year-of-being-purchased-2017-6

#52 Fish on 06.15.17 at 9:55 pm

RE #45
we’re about to see the Canadian mortgage holders get squeezed. Like the guy who bought before he sold.

Life is a lesson but,There’s Nothing like a good squeeze,

#53 Mark on 06.15.17 at 10:04 pm

“For those who want to secure themselves against an economic downturn or housing crash, go into tech. Programmers get more job offers than they know what to do with. “

Still up with that nonsense Troll? I hope you’re aware that what you’re reading, at least in that aspect, is mostly propaganda designed to curry favour for more H-1B visas. Not only are programmers not in demand, but the companies that hire programmers can get 50, 100, sometimes even 1000 applicants per position. And something about the tech industry just attracts recruiters who think they can replicate the postings of principals, and score big. Replication rates of 10-20 re-postings per actual job posting are not uncommon in tech. Claiming programmers are in any particular sort of demand is just as statistically fraudulent as the claims of rising house prices being made these days in Toronto/Vancouver.

#54 Smoking Man on 06.15.17 at 10:13 pm

Liberalism is a mental disorder.

Gallons of bourbon required to understand the loony left.
I look at these young mental cases on college campuses, programmed to be good global citizens since JK up through high school and boom totally nuts after they earn and obedience certificate. Willing to let others steal their future, their kids and grand kids future. But they are all in this together so it’s OK.

Lead by sinister globalists, Education, MSM and the Democrats are lying thieving parasites, they believe they hold the moral authority because of confirmation bias by like-minded mental cases all singing the same rotten song. This tribe believes they are the gods of morality the end justifies the means.

No regard to law and order, fanatical fantasy is the guiding light propelled by identity politics and trigger words that have absolutely nothing to do with the actual reality that surrounds them.

Clues idiots marching toward the cliff who have no comprehension of the pure evil that has shaped their belief system from birth. Hollywood celebrity worshiping is the new cool, learning about finance, investing, risk vs reward, they have zero understanding of this.

A white picket fence with a family and a V8 motor car are looked down upon as pure evil in the eyes for these cultists who have no future unless they figure out a way to break their minds free.

#55 Lag on 06.15.17 at 10:17 pm

Sorry, I don’t buy this “Teranet lags” baloney.

The housing crash of 2008 shows up in Teranet’s HPI graph at 2008, not years later.

Teranet is the best data we have, and the only one that completely documents its methodology.
Download their methodology specification from their website to look for yourself.

The lag is months, not years. — Garth

#56 Lefty on 06.15.17 at 10:23 pm

Another juicy chart – Canada vs. U.S. household debt.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/04/19/canada%20household%20debt.jpg

#57 TurnerNation on 06.15.17 at 10:30 pm

#38 NoName way ahead of you. In BOIL.US

Seeking alpha with zero hedge.

#58 neo on 06.15.17 at 10:35 pm

#34 Banana Splat on 06.15.17 at 8:27 pm
It would be nice if Hamilton were following suit. Prices here are still aiming for the stratosphere and inventory is very very low. There is currently about 4 townhouses for sale in the city. 4!!!
Rents have also gone through the roof in the last few years. It’s disappointing to see so many people spend a ton of money on crappy properties!

********************************************

Looks like it is coming in for a landing to me. We just don’t know if it is a soft or hard landing yet.

Inventory doesn’t look low at all either. Quite the opposite. I think you need to get out more.

https://www.zolo.ca/hamilton-real-estate/trends

#59 People are Strange on 06.15.17 at 10:45 pm

#24
Don; Permission to come aboard….so we can help guide you back to what otherworldly place from which you came.

#60 Doug in London on 06.15.17 at 10:50 pm

@MF, post #13:
My thoughts exactly. While a lot of whiners here were bellyaching about the low price of CPD and XPF, I was scooping them up during a Boxing Week sale that lasted about 3 years. So, what did I do with the generous distributions they pay out? Buy other assets on sale recently, like ENB and XEG.

#61 People are Strange on 06.15.17 at 10:51 pm

#30 FilmTO
Maybe it had a balcony too?

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.17 at 10:58 pm

#54 Smoking Man on 06.15.17 at 10:13 pm
Liberalism is a mental disorder.

Gallons of bourbon required to understand the loony left.
I look at these young mental cases on college campuses, programmed to be good global citizens since JK up through high school and boom totally nuts after they earn and obedience certificate. Willing to let others steal their future, their kids and grand kids future. But they are all in this together so it’s OK.

Lead by sinister globalists, Education, MSM and the Democrats are lying thieving parasites, they believe they hold the moral authority because of confirmation bias by like-minded mental cases all singing the same rotten song. This tribe believes they are the gods of morality the end justifies the means.

No regard to law and order, fanatical fantasy is the guiding light propelled by identity politics and trigger words that have absolutely nothing to do with the actual reality that surrounds them.

Clues idiots marching toward the cliff who have no comprehension of the pure evil that has shaped their belief system from birth. Hollywood celebrity worshiping is the new cool, learning about finance, investing, risk vs reward, they have zero understanding of this.

A white picket fence with a family and a V8 motor car are looked down upon as pure evil in the eyes for these cultists who have no future unless they figure out a way to break their minds free.
————–
Smokie,
You are ranting.
What’s the problem?
You make no sense.
Remember, let JD be with you.

#63 Kool Aid on 06.15.17 at 11:19 pm

Inventory way up, sales down, prices down.

Zolo 1 Teranet 0

#64 Question on 06.15.17 at 11:24 pm

“When listings pile and sellers moan, strike.” -Garth

Are you saying now is a good time to buy??????

Not enough moaning yet. — Garth

#65 Pre-retiree on 06.15.17 at 11:28 pm

Glad for you Penny Henny!
Must be a relief! Especially these days.

#66 Pre-retiree on 06.15.17 at 11:29 pm

@Penny Henny

About the house, I mean, of course.

#67 acdel on 06.15.17 at 11:36 pm

#53 Mark

As many people have slammed him; I have to say that he hit the nail on the head with this post. I am not a tech myself but worked for many years in the business sector working closely with them. Unfortunately what he says is true in the sector that I worked in, this propaganda of it being a well secure future is for the most part false unless one creates what the world needs or wants.

Go for it, but do it for yourself, do what you are most inspired in, make a difference, team up with the one’s that share the same dream and values.

Who knows where it will take you; but again, Mark has warned you regarding making others look good for their benefit. Holy Shit it is tough out there and only getting harder, but do something that is creative and that has made or will make a positive difference. All the best!

#68 DON on 06.15.17 at 11:45 pm

#15 Penny Henny on 06.15.17 at 7:09 pm

Yippie.
Hose closed.
Deal done.
Money in the bank.
See ya later Etobicoke.

************
congrats!
Did you slip the ‘greater fool’ a tip or the link to this website?

#69 Leo Trollstoy on 06.15.17 at 11:59 pm

For those who want to secure themselves against an economic downturn or housing crash, go into tech. Programmers get more job offers than they know what to do with. Always in demand!

https://qz.com/1006812/programmers-get-so-many-job-offers-search-site-indeed-created-a-special-spam-filter-to-help-them-deal-with-it/

The best part is that my friend graduated from engineering and is working in tech in dev ops. He says he gets so many calls from headhunters that its embarrassing – especially at work. He also says the ones that don’t get calls (or paid) aren’t good to begin with. This is true in any field!

#70 Boombust on 06.16.17 at 12:04 am

#3

Are you serious? Houses are NOT selling like “hotcakes” in the Vancouver suburbs. They are sitting unloved and unsold and there are price reductions galore.

Nice try, though.

#71 the Jaguar on 06.16.17 at 12:05 am

#20 – the Tooth Fairy….

Download a Netflix flick called ‘Enemy of the State” with Gene Hackman,–Yes- the flick would be acknowledged to be extremely dated and “Hollywood” in nature…..but it makes sense to me that this technology,while highly classified would exist in a more highly evolved state today. Syriana (George Clooney film)also shows this technology. (Spelling off, sorry. ) I don’t think it was invented in Hollywood. I think it must exist in a more advanced way than commonly known.

With due respect (often absent on this blog), I feel there is more to this than regular folk like you and others might know. Oh dear, I am probably in trouble with Garth for advancing conspiracy theories on the blog.
‘Enemy of the State’ with Will Smith and Gene Hackman is worthwhile if only for the appearance of a delightful orange tabby cat named “Babe” who lights up the entire movie. I have now risked the wrath of Garth by praising an orange kitty….. Check it out Blog dogs and cats —Enemy of the State – starring Will Smith and Gene Hackman! Babe the cat is a scene stealer.

One is always on the outside looking in…

#72 DON on 06.16.17 at 12:18 am

#64 Question on 06.15.17 at 11:24 pm

“When listings pile and sellers moan, strike.” -Garth

Are you saying now is a good time to buy??????

Not enough moaning yet. — Garth
************
When sellers start undercutting one another…the opposite of a bidding war. That’s when the true moaning begins. It is unfortunate!

#73 T-Rev on 06.16.17 at 1:21 am

Gartho, Smokey, need some advice:

2005 Corvette convertible, premium trim with low K $28,000, or invest it and retire an extra 3 months early when I’m old, wrinkly, and scared of anything faster than a motorized wheelchair?

Help me out fellas…

#74 Darren on 06.16.17 at 1:54 am

If something cannot end well it won’t.
What is impossible to get right is the timing.

#75 Damifino on 06.16.17 at 2:03 am

#53 Mark

Not only are programmers not in demand, but the companies that hire programmers can get 50, 100, sometimes even 1000 applicants per position.
—————————————–

It depends on the type of programming. If it’s garden variety html, css, javascript and boilerplate web pages then yeah… you’re probably right. I’m not saying one doesn’t need skills to do that, only that the field is quite full and the completion is fierce.

If it’s experience with embedded micro-controllers and real time operating systems or setting up servos in critical machinery etc… employers are going begging.

They do teach that stuff in university, but its kind of short on ‘really cool apps’ you can build a startup around. It’s more of a nose-to-the-grindstone thing where you’re paid to solve complex engineering challenges on custom hardware platforms.

I’ve been retired for 10 years and I still get calls from employers to go back to work or put them in touch with competent people who have such skills.

I laugh about the term ‘tech savvy’. Tweeting and posting pictures of restaurant food is anything but.

#76 Andre on 06.16.17 at 7:39 am

Hong Kong makes Toronto and/or Vancouver look cheap:)

Population densities (sq km): Toronto 4,100, Vancouver 5,400, HK 7,000. — Garth

#77 IHCTD9 on 06.16.17 at 8:08 am

#73 T-Rev on 06.16.17 at 1:21 am
Gartho, Smokey, need some advice:

2005 Corvette convertible, premium trim with low K $28,000, or invest it and retire an extra 3 months early when I’m old, wrinkly, and scared of anything faster than a motorized wheelchair?

Help me out fellas…
_____________________________________

Invest the funds and put off the purchase until your 45th birthday.

By then you won’t give a flying crap about the vette.

If you must buy now, save some more and get the Z06, at least you’ll get most of your money back when you sell, and you can eat turbo Porsche’s on your morning commute :)

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.17 at 8:09 am

@ Penny Henny

Congrats.
You found one of the last Greaterfools.
Please tell me it was “Daughter of Ponzi”

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.17 at 8:10 am

@#33 Chopstix

Oops.

#80 SilverSon on 06.16.17 at 8:29 am

A blog dog suggested I re-post some of my content from yesterday on a current blog. In essence, I think it was the observation that if you’re using a mortgage to purchase a house you are renting money from the bank. Similarly, if you own a house you pay property taxes, so you are renting the road, schools, and garbage collection from your township. This is really no different than renting a house from an amateur landlord except by renting a house you can put your down-payment capital into a portfolio that delivers 7-8% annual return with no risk of a unexpected maintenance expense while a house returns about 5% annual return over the long haul and has a significantly larger risk exposure.

Don’t get me wrong – I believe that if you want to own a house and you can afford it, go for it. But realize it’s really a lifestyle choice, not an investment. Alternatively, if you want to rent a house you should also be proud because contrary to what a lot of people say you ARE NOT throwing away your money by renting.

Here is some SUPER simple math to illustrate my point based on a $1-million dollar house in GTA burbs with $200,000 down-payment and 30-year amortization at 2.5% interest over the 30-year long haul:

Total interest paid: $330k
Total property taxes paid: $300k
Premium for homeowners insurance: $45k
Maintenance costs (VERY conservative): $60k
Lost income from $200,000 down-payment: $1-million
TOTAL: $1.735-million

That total would pay a rent of $4,800 per month for 30 years. You can rent a house in the GTA burbs for half that.

By the way, the lost income from the $200k down-payment is based on a managed portfolio returning 5.5% for 30 years. That’s right – $200k turns into $1-million over 30 years with just 5.5% annual rate of return. And with that you definitely won’t have to replace a furnace, a roof, or deal with a foundation cracking or a sewer pipe rusting out.

There’s a reason why the banks make billions of profit every quarter – they have successfully convinced us that houses are good investments even though the simple math above show that they are not. As mentioned before I do own a house but it’s not an investment to me – it’s a lifestyle choice. I like my house, I can afford it, and I don’t mind paying a cost premium to own it.

#81 SilverSon on 06.16.17 at 8:47 am

#75 Damifino on 06.16.17 at 2:03 am

Agreed 100%. I have done exactly that with my company – I have hired retired people on a part time basis because the same expertise is extremely difficult to find in people under 40 years old. In general, the struggle I have is finding people that can figure out how things work from an engineering standpoint. All the resumes I get are from applicants that are book smart but they don’t have the kind of street smart you get from someone that has put their nose to the grindstone and earned their stripes.

When I graduated university in the mid 1990’s I remember working nights and weekends without overtime pay for the first 4 years of my career because I wanted to figure out the best way to operate complicated mechanical systems so I could properly instrument and program the code within the PLCs that operated them. That meant by the time I was 28 years old I had headhunters after me from Toronto, Chicago, Phoenix, San Jose, and Boston. To me the difference between a job and a career is how much you willing to invest in your own skills. The universities try to claim that they give you the skills but I found that they didn’t in my case – I had to get those myself. What university did teach me was how to teach myself, and for that I am glad I went.

#82 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 06.16.17 at 9:25 am

Toronto Real Estate Board’s Numbers:

I do not put much trust into any real estate board’s numbers. They are completely bias and even has issues regulating themselves. Business ethics and morals are but a joke.

That said, the negative numbers they printed (as opposed to prositive frankenumbers) I believe are biased.

Why?

Because TREB especially wants to show the Ontario Gov’t (and Fed) that Ontario 16-point plan is too harsh and needs to be removed. This way, prices are go up and more commish is generated.

#83 Headhunter on 06.16.17 at 9:34 am

#73 T-Rev on 06.16.17 at 1:21 am
Gartho, Smokey, need some advice:

2005 Corvette convertible, premium trim with low K $28,000, or invest it and retire an extra 3 months early when I’m old, wrinkly, and scared of anything faster than a motorized wheelchair?

Help me out fellas…

—————————————————-

ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND!
Buy the damn car and enjoy it. I just sole my 04 Vette convertible and that car rocked. REALLY enjoyed it but it was time for another toy. When you and if you reach old age no guarantee that you will be healthy enough to enjoy these things.. most people think they can take their $$$$ with them when they croak… mostly all graves are the same size.. you follow me?

#84 Failing Grade on 06.16.17 at 9:51 am

A stunning 50% of the CEOs, business execs, government officials and academics surveyed at the annual Yale CEO Summit give [President] Trump an “F” for his first 130 days in office. The survey, released earlier this week, found that another 21% give Trump’s performance a “D” so far. Just 1% of the 125 leaders polled awarded the billionaire an “A.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/06/15/why-the-biggest-business-leaders-still-look-down-on-trump/?utm_term=.f0d8af181530

#85 Asterix1 on 06.16.17 at 9:51 am

King City stats are pretty scrary and funny at the same time.

Average price:
1.27M$ in June 2016
1.77M$ in May 2017
1.21M$ (last graph entry Zolo)

Prices down -4.8% in a year.

It’s King City for crying out loud! 1.21M is still too much for its location. I’m sure it’s pretty and has great people, not saying anything bad about that.

#86 Ace Goodheart on 06.16.17 at 9:59 am

Word on the street that GTA may get a speculation tax.

If this happens anyone who bought a house in the past year or so is going to lose their shirt. Watch an overheated market take a swan dive off a tall cliff.

This (speculation tax) has happened before. People need to read their history. The result was epic. Millionaires turned to bankrupt overnight.

#87 direttore on 06.16.17 at 10:13 am

Parents just sold their house in the 905 and are set for life. Your blog was very helpful to convince them to make the move – they are now looking for rentals in the area which are a fraction of the cost of owning!

#88 Leo Trollstoy on 06.16.17 at 10:15 am

if a person is in a booming industry like tech and can’t get amazing pay, they probably suck.

had to be said

#89 Tony on 06.16.17 at 10:17 am

Re: #76 Andre on 06.16.17 at 7:39 am

Raise the income taxes in Hong Kong to the percentages people pay in Vancouver and Toronto and presto real estate is worthless in Hong Kong. That’s the difference.

#90 TSX on 06.16.17 at 10:27 am

-1.85% ytd ……:)

Would be nice if oil could break $44/45. She’s hanging on

#91 IHCTD9 on 06.16.17 at 10:38 am

#80 SilverSon on 06.16.17 at 8:29 am

There’s a reason why the banks make billions of profit every quarter – they have successfully convinced us that houses are good investments even though the simple math above show that they are not. As mentioned before I do own a house but it’s not an investment to me – it’s a lifestyle choice. I like my house, I can afford it, and I don’t mind paying a cost premium to own it.

_______________________________________

Good post – and I’d like to add that any pretense of keeping a house as a profitable investment (if you’re getting a mortgage to buy it) requires bubble like appreciation for 2.5 decades solid – just to cover the annual costs of owning it. That means GTA/YVR and that’s it. Nowhere else in the entire country have these kinds of gains happened. I doubt they’ll carry on straight for 2-3 decades.

I own in a normal market and our house has more than doubled in value since purchased. But since I had to get a mortgage, pay taxes, pay interest (6.4% at the start) and insurance as well as maintain it – even though I did all the maintenance myself – I would come out worse than a GIC holder after a couple decades (ie I wouldn’t make squat on the house, and the longer I hold on to it, the worse off I’ll be).

It costs me an honest 7-800.00 per month to live in my own paid for house including taxes, insurance, maintenance, heat, and hydro.

It was a lifestyle choice for us right from the get-go upon deciding to start a family. We rented before, but wanted some room for future kiddies to run around, I wanted a few acres plus outbuildings for my projects and hobbies – as well as a measure of privacy and freedom all of which was not happening on the third floor of an apt building.

#92 r1200c on 06.16.17 at 10:55 am

An old Stats joke:

Raw data is what you call it before you cook the numbers.

#93 Penny Henny on 06.16.17 at 10:55 am

#65 Pre-retiree on 06.15.17 at 11:28 pm
Glad for you Penny Henny!
Must be a relief! Especially these days.

////////////////////////////////////

I have been tracking my neighbourhood for a number of weeks now and this is what I can report.
I had bookmarked Realtor.ca so I could see the fluctuations in the number of SFH’s in a certain area at a price point between $700,000 and $1,300,000. Generally there was about 40 houses listed.
Then I would go to mongohouse.com and check the ones that were reporting as sold.
I must say that since I took my house to market at the end of April sales have been weak. Maybe 10% sold every week. But in the last week and a half sales are down drastically from that.

Go to mongohouse.com.
Generate an account (very easy, no personal info needed).
Pick out an area.
Use the filter to show only freehold properties.
Now change the filter to show what has sold in the last 30 days, then select the last 14 days, then select the last 7 days.
You might be amazed.

#94 Penny Henny on 06.16.17 at 10:58 am

#68 DON on 06.15.17 at 11:45 pm
#15 Penny Henny on 06.15.17 at 7:09 pm

Yippie.
Hose closed.
Deal done.
Money in the bank.
See ya later Etobicoke.

************
congrats!
Did you slip the ‘greater fool’ a tip or the link to this website?
/////////////////////////

This greater fool played it out very well as luck would have it. They sold their place at the peak in March and did not repurchase til the last week of May.
That means in my neighbourhood they saved $150,000 from peak.

#95 AB Boxster on 06.16.17 at 11:20 am

So..
Fake news everywhere. (CBC the worst, CCN second)
Fake housing stats. (because the RE cartel has no agenda, right?)
Fake government stats. (Sure, food, housing and energy costs should not be included in inflation calcs because they are not important consumer items)
http://www.shadowstats.com/

Fake outrage all the time.

Pretty much everything that comes from mainstream media, social media, corporations and government is fake or manipulated for an agenda.

If you believe it, you are a putz.

Greater Fool blog excepted.

#96 IHCTD9 on 06.16.17 at 11:42 am

#85 Asterix1 on 06.16.17 at 9:51 am
King City stats are pretty scrary and funny at the same time.

Average price:
1.27M$ in June 2016
1.77M$ in May 2017
1.21M$ (last graph entry Zolo)

Prices down -4.8% in a year.

It’s King City for crying out loud! 1.21M is still too much for its location. I’m sure it’s pretty and has great people, not saying anything bad about that.
______________________________________

King City is nice, but 1.21M average for a SFD?

[Kronk voice:] Riiiight…. [/Kronk voice]

#97 Howard on 06.16.17 at 11:49 am

#85 Asterix1 on 06.16.17 at 9:51 am
King City stats are pretty scrary and funny at the same time.

Average price:
1.27M$ in June 2016
1.77M$ in May 2017
1.21M$ (last graph entry Zolo)

Prices down -4.8% in a year.

It’s King City for crying out loud! 1.21M is still too much for its location. I’m sure it’s pretty and has great people, not saying anything bad about that.

——————————-

The best are the ridiculous prices coming out of Milton.

I grew up in North York, yet I barely know where the hell Milton even is. I don’t even think it existed when I was growing up in the 80s and 90s.

#98 TO RE PhD on 06.16.17 at 11:50 am

FYI, those Zolo screencaps are of the old City of Toronto, not the GTA.

In the GTA, the month-over-month price decline is bigger and shift in inventory and sales is more dramatic

#99 TnT on 06.16.17 at 12:31 pm

#95 AB Boxster on 06.16.17 at 11:20 am

Pretty much everything that comes from mainstream media, social media, corporations and government is fake or manipulated for an agenda.

I get your frustration AB Boxster but here’s the interesting times we live in…

History is repeating itself right before our eyes.
You think Globalization is new?
It happened just before the first world war in Europe and lead right into Nazi Germany.

Hitler’s ascension into power was due to a disengaged, frustrated then compliant citizen base who also believed that:
”Pretty much everything that comes from mainstream media, social media, corporations and government is fake or manipulated for an agenda”.

History is once again upon us for anyone who is brave enough to see.

1) Instead of Jews, its Arabs & Mexicans and anyone else “Outside” the US borders.

2) Eroding the very Institutions that make us free i.e. Government, Media. News outlets and especially fake Social Media bots from Russia.

3) Normalizing an obvious empty vessel leader full of empty promises who “tells us” what to think & who to believe.

Last Point to ponder….

You never know when “your vote” could actually be “your last vote”

Ask the German if they knew voting for Hitler was going to be their “last vote”.

Ask Russia if they knew in 1990 that voting for Putin would have been their “last vote”.

I dread we are close to asking Americans if voting for Trump was going to be their “last vote”.

The Germans and Russians all thought they were doing “good” for their country when they were actually suckered by “evil” group think.

Let’s open our hearts and mind, let’s be brave and promote the goodness of our Free World.

We can take on Globalization and not fear what lies beyond our borders for a better world.

For a better explanation of what I am trying to say can be found in this very short read:

On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century by Timothy Snyder

Don’t Give Up on our Free Society!

#100 Asterix1 on 06.16.17 at 12:43 pm

For those suckers who bought in King City in May 2017, they already lost an average of -31.6%! Wow!

If a foreign speculator bought in May with the extra tax, they have lost -40.5% .

Nice!

#101 n1tro on 06.16.17 at 1:12 pm

@TnT re: #99

Oh god please spare us your bra burning and tree hugging philosophy.

Governments making us “free” – majority of people elected into government have the their own self interest in mine or the interest of whichever lobbyist donated the most. Freedom for the masses is a secondary unrelated side effect.

Media institutions making us “free” – Free, in the sense that reporting now is free from unbiasness and tainted with whatever message the puppet masters want to get across. Frankenumbers, editorial reporting is not freedom.

The only true freedom one has is between your ears.

#102 TnT on 06.16.17 at 1:35 pm

#101 n1tro on 06.16.17 at 1:12 pm

Oh god please spare us your bra burning and tree hugging philosophy.
Not meant to be preachy…. Our Society is on shaky grounds, history is repeating and we need to choose wisely during our transition.

Governments making us “free” – majority of people elected into government have the their own self interest in mine or the interest of whichever lobbyist donated the most. Freedom for the masses is a secondary unrelated side effect.
The duty of any “good” citizen is not to give up but to be engaged and make the Government’s interest “Our” interest. Hold them accountable, donate time or money and spread the word. Don’t give up n1tro, we need all great minds engaged.

Media institutions making us “free” – Free, in the sense that reporting now is free from unbiasness and tainted with whatever message the puppet masters want to get across. Frankenumbers, editorial reporting is not freedom.
We pay for auto mechanics, plumbers etc.. why not Pay for News. Good News needs money for Good Reporters to uncover the needed story to help educate our citizens. There are always Good Sources of News and Facts out there.
You get what you pay for when it comes to “Free News”.

The only true freedom one has is between your ears.
Agree… the sponge between our ears is in need of Truth and Education to help keep us from repeating history.

#103 Dups on 06.16.17 at 1:51 pm

I think the US dollar will gain against CAD one very soon. Look at the big picture: 10 year trend graph.

#104 Hoonigan on 06.16.17 at 2:09 pm

#20 the tooth fairy

All true, however, satellites are a hoax, everything attributed to them is done with terrestrial technology. The rise in gps tech coincided with cell towers everywhere, satellites do not exist. you cannot find engineered plans or real photos

You are delusional if you actually believe that drivel.

I was using GPS tech in the high Arctic in 1993. No cell towers up there. Currently using GPS tech in Papua New Guinea, no cell towers in the jungle there either.

#105 history on 06.16.17 at 2:10 pm

Hitler’s ascension into power was due to a disengaged, frustrated then compliant citizen base who also believed that:
”Pretty much everything that comes from mainstream media, social media, corporations and government is fake or manipulated for an agenda”.

===

Source?

#106 jess on 06.16.17 at 2:43 pm

cherry picking

….”Witnesses presented by Attorney General Schneiderman included appraisers who testified that they stopped getting WaMu eAppraiseIT assignments despite years of satisfactory work, only to later discover they had been removed from the “proven appraiser list” because they refused to provide the values that would satisfy WaMu’s loan officers. Evidence introduced at trial included a 2007 email from a former WaMu sales office employee, stating, “The appraisal list that eAppraiseIT … is using has been totally scrubbed. But instead of keeping good appraisers, they went for the BADddd ones.”

===============
bad behavior

Warren Buffett: The three mistakes Wells Fargo made
http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/15/investing/wells-fargo-mortgage-modification-lawsuit/index.html?iid=surge-stack-dom

more “mistakes”?

Wells Fargo Is Accused of Making Improper Changes to Mortgages

By GRETCHEN MORGENSONJUNE 14, 2017

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/14/business/wells-fargo-loan-mortgage.html?_r=0

#107 Wrk.dover on 06.16.17 at 3:02 pm

#97 Howard on 06.16.17 at 11:49 am

I grew up in North York, yet I barely know where the hell Milton even is. I don’t even think it existed when I was growing up in the 80s and 90s.

—————————————–

There was a truck stop there in the 70’s, and a precast concrete plant..

I knew a guy that bought a lame new town house there in 73. I doubt that it cost more than mid twenties. He also had a brand new Pinto Squire with the wood grain, and of course a new bride with child. All of it long gone.

Another friend bought one of the very first semis in Meadowvale NW of Streetsville at Aqataine and Argentia or something like that surrounded by nothingness in 76. I think he was into it for 40ish. Canberra was the actual street, and the nearest inhabitants before him were farmers across what is now called Winston Churchill.

401 was two lanes each way. Other than 400, the new 427 and 10 miles of 403 above Hamilton Harbour, there were no 4 series highways in 73.

Since then Canada was built up and now has started to decline.

#108 EB on 06.16.17 at 3:10 pm

#99 TnT – “We can take on Globalization and not fear what lies beyond our borders for a better world.”

You can tell it’s going to make a freer, better world by the way the unelected EU bureaucrats, multinationals, and stateless capital push it endlessly on their mass media assets. Be a rebel by doing as you’re told.

The Economist article is fun though. Hopefully they won’t get prosecuted for hate speech.

#109 Renter's Revenge! on 06.16.17 at 3:31 pm

You know it’s a slow day for comments when the blog dogs start talking about “freedom between the ears”.

#110 n1tro on 06.16.17 at 3:55 pm

@TnT

I haven’t given up. If anything, I am more aware. I agree in principal of what you are saying that people should not be complicit.

The rest of your post is slanted in painting Trump as the next Hitler which is wrong. If anything, Trump would be closer to Musillini and by default, our very own Trudeau would be Marx. Both need to go but given the voting heard in each respective country, they are here to stay.

Interesting you mention getting what you pay for when it comes to news. It is the same with voting. People in general aren’t willing to pay for anything and expect handouts as seen in this forum when it comes to taxes and wealth (re)distribution.

So while your ideal view in life can be considered noble, more pragmatic people like myself who knows it takes more than saying “I’m not going to give up” to change the course we are on will leave if need be and let the cycle complete itself. In the meantime, I will use the sponge between my ears and profit from heard mentality.

#111 Fiery Irish Nutjob Descended from Bog People on 06.16.17 at 4:06 pm

#80 SilverSon on 06.16.17 at 8:29 am

You are completely ignoring the time value of money.

Here’s a check for year 1 –
Interest: $19,690 under a 30 year amortization at 2.5% (who has a thirty year amortization these days?)
Insurance: $1,500
Maintenance: $2,000 (I agree this is quite low)
Taxes: $10,000 (plausible in GTA but in the City of Toronto you’d be paying less than $5,000 per year)
Opportunity Cost: $11,000 at 5.5% (if you are going to include this you should probably also include the gain on the house which at a lowly 1% growth is $10,000 but I won’t)
Cost in year 1: $44,190
RENT: $57,600

It’s also a bit dishonest to ignore the whole of the ‘mortgage free’ period of home ownership.

The real issue is that the true cash cost of owning the home is $51,367 when you add in the amortization portion of the mortgage (and ignore the opportunity cost). When you buy, you pay more because of forced savings.

This works well for most people because they aren’t good at saving.

Debt repayment is a valid cash flow expense, so an interest-only calculation is disingenuous. In addition, you neglected the substantial closing costs in year one. — Garth

#112 TnT on 06.16.17 at 4:20 pm

#105 history on 06.16.17 at 2:10 pm

Source?

For starters: I do apologize as this is not the right forum for a Sociology debate but we need to defend our institutions against ignorance while we still have the freedom to do so.

If you are asking for proof that the German citizens were “disengaged”, “Frustrated” & then “Compliant” to Nazi power then I can’t answer that in a single post but you can apply a little common sense and ask yourself:

“How could 1 person (with a small group of like-minded Nazi’s) hijack a nation and normalize the extermination of a whole group of people”.

Before Nazi Germany, Germans Citizens had German Institutions that protected civil liberties, property rights and the rule of law.

Germans thought like any other free nation and just assumed democracy would protect every citizen.

Once you “Disengage” from the responsibilities of being a good citizen then the institutions are ripe for takeover. The slandering of our Education Institution here is embarrassing and very few challenge the pure ignorance of such posts. This is just a simple example of how 1 pillar of our society gets eroded.

“Frustrated” Germans. Read up on The Treaty of Versailles

“Compliant” Germans; that is self-explanatory. Imagine if the Law Makers, Lawyers and Police Force did their duty as good Germans citizens and protected the Institutions against Nazi’s while they still had the power. Every sector of German Society eventually enforced the Nazi laws and normalized Nazi group think. What they should have done was what Poland’s “Solidarity” movement did in the 1980’s against Communism.

Check out this post war study on human obedience and see how any nation could be a Nazi nation, even the mighty USA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milgram_experiment – search You Tube for actual video footage

Check out this podcast with Sam Harris (Sam Harris has plenty of podcasts with great topics)

https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/the-road-to-tyranny – great podcast for those who want to elevate their understanding of our times.

#113 NoName on 06.16.17 at 4:25 pm

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2017/06/16/amazon-has-a-patent-to-keep-you-from-comparison-shopping-while-youre-in-its-stores/?utm_term=.10638e4ca64f

[email protected]$&#+ believable!

#114 Dee on 06.16.17 at 4:26 pm

ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND!
Buy the damn car and enjoy it. I just sole my 04 Vette convertible and that car rocked. REALLY enjoyed it but it was time for another toy. When you and if you reach old age no guarantee that you will be healthy enough to enjoy these things.. most people think they can take their $$$$ with them when they croak… mostly all graves are the same size.. you follow me?

—————————–

What? Why? Just rent a car for a few days. Get some kicks out of it. Then rent another. You wont feel better stuck in traffic in your dream car over a regular one. The need to possess things is such a weird obsession. The feelings subside. Rent the car you like then rent every car it competes…….and inflate your portfolio in the mean time

#115 Don on 06.16.17 at 5:04 pm

#94 Penny Henny on 06.16.17 at 10:58 am

#68 DON on 06.15.17 at 11:45 pm
#15 Penny Henny on 06.15.17 at 7:09 pm

Yippie.
Hose closed.
Deal done.
Money in the bank.
See ya later Etobicoke.

************
congrats!
Did you slip the ‘greater fool’ a tip or the link to this website?
/////////////////////////

This greater fool played it out very well as luck would have it. They sold their place at the peak in March and did not repurchase til the last week of May.
That means in my neighbourhood they saved $150,000 from peak.
**************

Unfortunately for your buyers the game is not over yet. For you it is but not for them. They still bought near peak. I am happy for you though. All the best!

#116 AGuyInVancouver on 06.16.17 at 6:11 pm

#33 choptstix – The Economist is indeed balanced and respected source. Which is why people need to take note of this key point in that article:
“…Common to all these cities are buyers from emerging markets, notably China, who have helped to drive a wedge between the price of homes and the local fundamentals of incomes and rental payments. They are willing to pay above the odds to secure a safe place for their savings. Though fairly small in number, their presence is enough to inflate bubbles.

Canada’s housing market thus opens a window on a tragic flaw in the global economy. In only a few decades China has mastered the manufacture of high-quality goods. But it takes far longer to be able to manufacture safe stores of value. Instead, their affluent citizens seek out rich-country assets, including houses. This fundamental mismatch limits the ability of policymakers to stop bubbles from inflating…”

People need to stop denying foreign buyers are a factor. They may not be the ONLY factor, but they are a key one in explaining how prices can get so divorced from local incomes.

#117 Really! on 06.16.17 at 10:47 pm

#93 Penny Henny

Thanks for the tip on the Mongohouse.com website! It’s so much nicer than one I was using! Wow life is GOOD!!!
thanks so much for sharing!

#118 Where's The Money Guido? on 06.17.17 at 1:32 am

More evidence of 3rd world BC’s criminal element in RE.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/2-mortgage-investment-corporations-facing-fraud-allegations-in-b-c-1.4164897

#119 Adrian on 06.17.17 at 3:51 am

There was no good reason to censor my comment.

Yes there was. — Garth

#120 ozy - all lies, NOTHING of value TO BUY... on 06.18.17 at 11:55 pm

NOTHING TO BUY… JUST DID A MLS SEARCH IN TOP 5 HOODS IN TORONTO AND NOTHING TO BUY!!! just some average houses at 2.6-2.9MIL….

Where is the price drop? Open house are packed – continuous flood of people.

TO ALL BUYERS, STAY HOME! Let it be quiet, I DO NOT WANT TO PAY MORE THAN 2.2 MIL, ideally only $2,000,000

And to avoid any competition – can’t tip you off where I am looking…sorry