The odds

A month ago nobody thought Canada could, would or should raise rates in 2017. Well, that just changed. In a few weeks the odds have gone from a don’t-bother-me 7% all the way up to a beefy 37%. Yup, that still means markets are 63% convinced the Bank of Canada won’t move in the next 170 days but, wow, this is news.

The reason is simple – more growth and more jobs, leading to inflation, which erodes the value of money. So by raising the price of currency (that’s what interest is), central banks try to maintain an equilibrium. Hence, the odds of an increase in the next few months are approaching one-in-four. As for a move by this time next year, they’re seven in ten.

The latest jobs numbers, out Friday, were unexpected. Over fifty-four thousand new positions, 77,000 of them full-time, and a recovery in wages. In the last twelve months Canada has added 316,800 to the labour force, the most in four years. Moreover, our economy’s growing at a weedy clip, in stark contrast to the oil-induced funk of a year ago.

If it continues more people will be working and spending. But we’ll also see the end of dirt cheap money. Meanwhile the next US rate increase comes on Wednesday, when the Fed adds its latest quarter-point increase. (The odds given that are almost 100%.) This will be the third round of tightening in little more than six months. So much for all the geniuses in the comments section last year who said it would be “one-and-done.” In reality Americans are likely in for two or three more years of this. Us, too. And won’t that surprise your Mom.

So if your mortgage is coming due sometime this year, lock the sucker in. And remember the rate. Your grandkids will want to hear all about the time when money was free.

&     &     &

Not so long ago the suggestion was made here to slightly increase the Canadian portion of your investment portfolio, and to throttle back on the Yankee exposure. Part of the reason was our nation’s recovery from the mess it was in last year (see above) and part because Trump is so done.

American equity markets have been in catnip mode for much of the last seven months since the election of a guy who promised to cut taxes, spend huge on infrastructure, slash costly regulations and goose the GDP with a pro-business agenda and a cabinet full of billionaire fossils.

So far, fail. Yes, markets have jumped in anticipation and remain hovering around the peak, but the odds of any of the Make-America-Great-Again stuff actually happening diminish by the week. The latest spitting match between the Trumpster and his punted FBI director, James Comey is a fine example. This is destined to go on for months, result in judicial action, and massively distract Washington – whatever the outcome.

The tax package has gone nowhere. Trump’s budget is kaput. No regulations have been shredded. No giant infrastructure projects started (even The Wall). Instead the president is spending his time on a silly anti-Muslim travel ban, jumping into a contest with a wily bureaucrat and pissing off key European allies, like Germany and Britain. His abdication of the Paris climate change accord shocked the world, and his social media usage is destroying Trump’s effectiveness, 140 characters at a time.

Markets roared ahead late last year because a pro-business, anti-tax Republican had been elected president at the same time his party controlled Congress. How could he not get his agenda through?

Well, whatever you think of the guy, he’s cooked as a market-inflater. Were it not for sustained job growth and a resurgence in corporate profitability (neither of which can be attributed to a six-month-old administration), today’s equity valuations might look wobbly with this mercurial man in control. Current weightings in the growth portion of the portfolio: Canada 21%, US 16%, International 23%.

&     &     &

Thomas has been an appraiser, he tells me, for thirty years, mostly in the east end of the GTA. He called to say his job just turned into a living hell because what a house is worth today is not what it was worth a week ago.

“The real estate board says prices fell 6% last month,” he says, “but I’d say it’s more like 15%. Besides, we’re being told by our bank clients to shave another ten or fifteen points from that before submitting the report.”

It’s all about risk. Lenders figure we’re now in a declining market phase which could last months, a year or much longer. Caught in the vise are buyers who purchased unconditionally in a bidding war, paid a premium, and now find the financing they counted on ain’t there. At the same time, those who bought and closed six, eight or 12 months ago with a 10% or 15% down payment have effectively lost 100% of their equity. It may come back. It might not.

“Part of me feels sorry for a lot of the people who paid he amounts in this region,” Tom says. “But part of me is okay with it. They took a big chance. We all knew this was coming.”

Indeed.

 

 

177 comments ↓

#1 Deja Vu on 06.09.17 at 6:00 pm

“In the ruin of all collapsed booms is to be found the work of men who bought property at prices they knew perfectly well were fictitious, but who were willing to pay such prices simply because they knew that some still greater fool could be depended on to take the property off their hands and leave them with a profit.”

Chicago Tribune editorial of April 1890

#2 Pete on 06.09.17 at 6:03 pm

So statscan published some fake job numbers, what is the big deal?

#3 Bort on 06.09.17 at 6:07 pm

‘Over fifty-four thousand new positions, 77,000 of them full-time, and a recovery in wages…’
77,000 of the 54,000 new jobs are f/t… that is a weedy clip.

#4 crdt on 06.09.17 at 6:12 pm

“They took a big chance. We all knew this was coming” Tony Robbins helped them overcome the fear, wonder if Robbins will have a follow up seminar coping with the disaster he motivated these people to jump into? For over a decade the big chance meant big profit, until about now…

#5 Dave on 06.09.17 at 6:15 pm

Everyone is waiting on the NDP/Green party to shred the real estate market in BC. Question is how soon and how much.

BOC is useless, still remember them giving guidance for months and months and then do the opposite and reduce rates.

#6 Pete on 06.09.17 at 6:15 pm

Trump is NOT against immigration. Nobody is. He is just against illegal immigration. Everybody should be.

#7 Joshua on 06.09.17 at 6:16 pm

Garth, don’t try to time or predict the market. If you want a balanced portfolio stick to 20/20/20 US, Intl, and Canada. Market timers never win. I remember 18 months ago you talked about tilting the portfolio a bit towards the US only to have Canada tear it up in 2016.

Still, I envy your writing skills. You make it look easy. have a great weekend!

#8 Ken in BC on 06.09.17 at 6:17 pm

Hey Vancouver, Toronto called, they want their fools back. They sounded kind of desperate.

#9 Dave on 06.09.17 at 6:18 pm

So what’s the good news in Canada for 2017 and 2018? Which industry is creating all these so called jobs? Mining..no, Forestry…no, O&G….no, manufacturing…no. What’s Left?

#10 joe calgary on 06.09.17 at 6:24 pm

L O L

#11 Lulu on 06.09.17 at 6:28 pm

Well, either you win or you lose, when you see houses as a commodity, usually you lose at the end, but when you see it as your shelter and come the time you need to sell, you probably winning unexpectedly. Flippers and Speckers can make a lot if they know when to stop and not get greedy, but i seen most of it lost it all because they gamble too much on a single asset and caught in a down turn market like us right now. This Fall is gonna be a shxt show for sure and price chomping rally will last til the deep freeze makes it even colder this winter, what a celebration special for our country 150th borthday eh!? So much so entertaining!!!

God Bless Canadian!!!

#12 I'm Not Poloz on 06.09.17 at 6:30 pm

You expect that doofus Poloz to increase interest rates this year? He’s busy with his pal Morneau to erode the Canadian dollar to boost exports while Morneau wants his Bayview mansion to be inflated with either Home Capital buyers or 888 buyers, no difference.

Poloz wants a 50-cent Loonie while Morneau wants every Canadian to work for free while his Bayview mansion is artificially inflated because of low interest rates and scamming foreign investors that the magic number 888 is a great omen to live in what is known as the anus of Canada.

#13 the Hammer on 06.09.17 at 6:36 pm

Ohmmmm… Cato the Elder is talking to me..

“The worst ruler is one who cannot rule himself”

Trump ire neccesse est.

#14 Nero on 06.09.17 at 6:43 pm

Freedom 54 in 12 days….. :)

#15 For those about to flop... on 06.09.17 at 6:44 pm

You taken up cards boss?

Yesterday was The Gamble.

Today,The Odds.

I look forward to The River,The Fold and my favourite The Flop…

M42BC

#16 Smartalox on 06.09.17 at 6:44 pm

So when does the BOC raise rates? At their meeting in July?

Regarding Trump, I heard that the Republicans in Congress are looking for the dog and pony show in the senate to act as a smokescreen for passage of a repeal of the Dodd-Frank act that tamed the big US banks.

Surely THAT’s going to goose the US markets!

#17 I-DONT on 06.09.17 at 6:44 pm

Why should we feel sorry for the guys who bought recently

3 of my House horny friend just bought this year.
1 is on their 5th house
2 has 3 houses

They are leveraging like crap because they had a taste of winning when the market is going up. They haven’t felt a downside yet.

Like any gambler on a crap table they keep on doubling down until the final row of the dice when the house takes it all back and more…..

#18 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 06.09.17 at 6:48 pm

DELETED

#19 jess on 06.09.17 at 6:51 pm

squeeze play

“Qatar satisfies almost 30 percent of global demand for liquefied gas. Along with Iran it is home to the world’s largest gas field. As the country’s diplomatic crisis deepens, there are fears that shortages could lie ahead.”

================
nuclear tax
“In a long-awaited verdict closely watched by investors and analysts, Germany’s top court said the tax, which was imposed between 2011 and 2016, was “formally illegal and void.” The verdict overrules a decision by the European Court of Justice last year saying the tax did not breach European Union laws.”

http://www.dw.com/en/germanys-top-court-rules-nuclear-fuel-tax-illegal/a-39141494

#20 Peternorth on 06.09.17 at 6:52 pm

Inflation is a result of money creation. Not more growth and more jobs.

#21 Once a Boss, Always a Boss on 06.09.17 at 6:58 pm

Shave another 10 or 15 points or percent?

potentially big difference in meaning

#22 BobC on 06.09.17 at 6:58 pm

I don’t think we can blame Trump. He spends everyday fighting off the anti-make America great again losers. I don’t think this battle for our economic and personal freedom is over. Look at some facts:

There are 3141 counties in the U.S.
Trump won 3084 of them.
Clinton won 57.
There are 62 counties in New York State.
Trump won 46 of them.
Clinton won 16.
Clinton won the popular vote by approx. 1.5 million votes.
In the 5 counties that encompass NYC, (Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Richmond & Queens) Clinton received well over 2 million more votes then Trump. (Clinton only won 4 of these counties, Trump won Richmond).
Therefore these 5 counties alone more then accounted for Clinton winning the popular vote of the entire country.
These 5 counties comprise 319 square miles.
The U.S. is comprised of 3,797,000 square miles of territory. It would be ludicrous to even suggest that the vote of those that encompass a mere 319 square miles should dictate the outcome of the national election.

They can fight on but America will win this battle. Someone on this blog keeps saying never bet against America. That’s right and know the fight isn’t over by a long shot.

#23 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 06.09.17 at 6:59 pm

Current weightings in the growth portion of the our balanced portfolio: Canada 17.42%, US 15.65%, International 25.42%. FI* 29.99%. Cash 11.5%

Go Canada. But just remember Canada is just 3% of the entire global stock market.

*Bonds, not Pref.

#24 AB Boxster on 06.09.17 at 7:01 pm

Canada and Canadians are massively in debt.
The priced housing market is cooling off rapidly.
Softwood lumber sales to the US are in trouble.
Major energy projects will be cancelled by the dipper and huggers in BC.
Social License prevents any large resource projects from ever occuring again.
Large employers are leaving Ontario in droves.
Alberta is in the tank soon to followed by BC.
Oil prices still suck..

Sure, Canadians are still buying vehicles and stuff, but mostly through increasing debt loads, either through LOCs or credit cards.

More debt fueled pretend growth, in an overextended country that overtaxes its successful and disadvantages its businesses through obscene carbon taxes, high energy costs, and regressive tax policies.

Please explain where growth supposed to come from in Canada.

#25 jay on 06.09.17 at 7:02 pm

The government giveth and the government taketh away.

#26 Daughter of Ponzi on 06.09.17 at 7:03 pm

Great new post Garth. The change is in the air and hard to ignore even by many great fools. The con artists are playing dumb hoping to get the last of them roped in.

And to all of you believers in contracts, let me remind you that your ancestors raped and pillaged this continent and had Indian chiefs sell their land for glass beads at the gun point. Off course they also had to sign on the piece of paper. Tt was such a brutal game. Stop babbling about your contracts and laws, they are a joke. Better bow to your queen and kiss her behind.

#27 AK on 06.09.17 at 7:05 pm

“So far, fail. Yes, markets have jumped in anticipation and remain hovering around the peak, but the odds of any of the Make-America-Great-Again stuff actually happening diminish by the week.”
——————————————————————
Obama accomplished nothing in 8 years. President Trump still has plenty of time to come through.

Obama inherited 10% unemployment and halved it. — Garth

#28 Daughter of Ponzi on 06.09.17 at 7:11 pm

#9 Dave on 06.09.17 at 6:18 pm
So what’s the good news in Canada for 2017 and 2018? Which industry is creating all these so called jobs? Mining..no, Forestry…no, O&G….no, manufacturing…no. What’s Left?
—————————————————
It doesn’t matter. They just decided there’s more than enough fools roped in. If they want to raise the cost of money and pop this bubble, than the job reports will be marvellous. Do you really think somebody is counting these jobs and reporting this to you?

#29 Vancouver Troy on 06.09.17 at 7:11 pm

Trump has always stated he is not against legal immigration. His wives were legal immigrants.

There is much to bash Trump about without repeating this propoganda.

#30 Ray Skunk on 06.09.17 at 7:12 pm

I hear what’s being said on US equities and Trump’s inability to get shit done in a timely manner.

Regardless, I’m going heavy on US exposure.
With the commie comedy trifecta of Butts/Trudeau/Poloz at the helm, there’s just no conceivable way the CAD isn’t dropping to 60c, and likely beyond.

#31 TurnerNation on 06.09.17 at 7:16 pm

Blog Dog Poloz works for the Queen. And likely will join Blog Dog Carney in service to HRH.
All the King’s horses and all the King’s men…

No CA rate hike till 2018. Yes M’lud.

#32 choptstix on 06.09.17 at 7:17 pm

”As Metro Vancouver’s affordability gap widens, a search for answers”
KERRY GOLD
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Jun. 09, 2017 4:09PM EDT
Last updated Friday, Jun. 09, 2017 4:09PM EDT
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/as-metro-vancouvers-affordability-gap-widens-a-search-for-answers/article35267249/

#33 Ummmm on 06.09.17 at 7:18 pm

Prices are falling cause people are selling and taking profits. It happens all the time in the stock market. They will go up again in the near future!

With regard to interest rates, if the go up by .25% they will go back Down really fast because the economy will crash forcing a reduction.

#34 Jay (not that one) on 06.09.17 at 7:21 pm

I’m a little surprised about the heavy Canadian weighting.

Is there some tax benefit to investing at home?

I’m mostly invested international. I’ve had a good year.

#35 TurnerNation on 06.09.17 at 7:30 pm

Condos emasculate men?
Discuss: many allow only tiny annoying condo sized dogs; most forbid BBQs; good luck parking your work truck in a Smart car sized parking spot.

#36 Game Back On on 06.09.17 at 7:30 pm

As many have posted, the Vancouver market is back on fire with little to no reprive. So much for the ‘collapse in sales’ and the soon to follow price declines.

And now the Victoria market has the same double digit increases.

“And in August, the province introduced the 15-per-cent property-transfer tax on foreign buyers. According to the report, within a month, foreign buying in the region “virtually disappeared.”

The numbers of purchases by foreign nationals significantly dropped in Vancouver, Richmond, Surrey and Burnaby, according to provincial data attached to the report.

However, in that same period, foreign nationals made headway in markets that didn’t have the tax. In Victoria, purchases by foreign nationals went from 16.5 per cent to 23.8 per cent after the tax”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/as-metro-vancouvers-affordability-gap-widens-a-search-for-answers/article35267249/

#37 Daughter of Ponzi on 06.09.17 at 7:34 pm

#30 Ray Skunk on 06.09.17 at 7:12 pm
Regardless, I’m going heavy on US exposure.
——————————————————–
Donald is the perfect putz to be blamed for next recession. It is coming and it’s going to be yuuuuuge. They won’t miss this opportunity for anything in the world.

#38 Daughter of Ponzi on 06.09.17 at 7:40 pm

Obama inherited 10% unemployment and halved it. — Garth

Yes he halved it with 8 trillion new debt. How much is that per job? Of course he could have given this money to the same people but it’s much better this way. The masters get to keep their slaves working for peanuts, pay them with printed money and all of this enabled by a black president, descendant of slaves. Perfect ain’t it?

#39 Ex-Cowtown on 06.09.17 at 7:45 pm

I know GT hates Trump, and I’m going off topic, but here’s my take on Comey’s testimony:

1. Comey created self-serving memos that really have no standing in court. It’s kind of like being accused of murder and saying “No Milord, I could not have committed the murder because I wrote in my notebook that I was in Petaluma at the time” Comey knows that self-serving documents are the legal equivalent of bum wad, but the media bought it hook line and sinker anyway.

2. Comey admits to leaking government documents. The documents were not his personal property; they belonged to the US government. And it isn’t up to him to decide what was classified or not. Ironically, Trump has the authority to declare any document classified or unclassified. Even retroactively. Comey over stepped.

3. Comey admits to leaking information to intentionally gin up the Senate, Congress and public to screw over Trump by getting a Special Counsel appointed. And all the while he knew that Trump was not under investigation. Sick and disgusting behavior by a top cop.
Comey’s actions are more sociopathic than socially conscious.

4. Comey lied when he said that the FBI was one big happy family when Trump fired him. It took me 30 seconds on Google to find scores of news reports on open revolts within the FBI re: Hillary being let off the hook. Comey poisoned the well in the FBI himself and then lied about it

5. Comey admits too easily to being “shocked”, “surprised” and “confused” and unable to figure out what to do, so he did nothing. He expects us to believe that he is the male equivalent of a dumb blonde (apologies for the un-PC comment) or a deer in the headlights who somehow, “Lordy” knows how, stumbled and bumbled his way into the directorship of the CIA. And then was worked over by the Big Bad Donald. Yeah right.

Comey was fired because he was a lying back-stabbing incompetent. Only he believes it was because of the Russians. But he has good company; Hillary believes she lost because of those darn Ruskies, too.

Too funny.

Why would I hate Trump? He is what he is, and I invest around him. But he’s cooked. — Garth

#40 Fake News on 06.09.17 at 7:46 pm

Trump is crooked but the Clintons who worked for govt most of their adult careers are worth over 300 million dollars. Go figure.

#41 Daughter of Ponzi on 06.09.17 at 7:51 pm

#14 Nero on 06.09.17 at 6:43 pm
Freedom 54 in 12 days….. :)
——————————————-
You mean you are going to have enough money to pay the bills and spend it on frivolous crap without having to sit in a cube. Freedom “whatever #” is just a stupid American BS. Anyone who calls it, has no clue what freedom really easy.

#42 Musty Basement Dweller on 06.09.17 at 7:52 pm

Opinions from anyone please on how much in general house prices have gone down in Calgary since the oil crunch of 3 years or so ago? My cousin who lives there says it’s a substantial decline but wasn’t able to put a number on it.

#43 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 06.09.17 at 7:52 pm

DELETED

#44 Pete on 06.09.17 at 8:00 pm

Obama accomplished nothing in 8 years. President Trump still has plenty of time to come through.

Obama inherited 10% unemployment and halved it. — Garth

When Obama took office in 2009, US federal debts were $10.5 trillion. by the time he left office, US federal debts stood at $20 trillion. Taking on almost $10 trillion debts and reduced unemployment by a few percent. If that is not pathetic, then I don’t know what is.

If I should become PM of Canada and you give me $1 trillion extra to spend, I guarantee I will reduce unemployment rate to 0% and below.

It was the credit crisis. No such issue today. — Garth

#45 Darryl on 06.09.17 at 8:02 pm

https://youtu.be/MmAtwvZYTe8

What its all about

#46 Long-Time Lurker on 06.09.17 at 8:05 pm

Another good article, Garth. Thank you for continuing your blog.

I’m open to listening to different views on things.

That Bill Gross link:

Bill Gross Says Market Risk Is Highest Since Pre-2008 Crisis
by John Gittelsohn and Erik Schatzker
June 7, 2017, 7:10 AM PDT June 7, 2017, 9:14 AM PDT

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-07/bill-gross-says-market-risk-is-highest-since-before-2008-crisis

Gross is selling. Sounds like you’re buying. — Garth

#47 Asterix1 on 06.09.17 at 8:05 pm

#24 great post. To answer your question at the end, “where growth supposed to come from in Canada?”

Answer: More debt per household + Federal government keeps pumping 300,000+ new immigrants a year, TFWP, Money laundering and other tricks to get more people into our giant Ponzi scheme.

#48 mike from mtl on 06.09.17 at 8:05 pm

That’s crazy, there’s no way I’d feel confortable with anything over 20% in maple, fixed income or not.

A housing bust by BoC rate increases (yea right?) or sheer violation will destroy TSE.

Who cares about 2% global share that Ca$ is.

#49 Alex k on 06.09.17 at 8:07 pm

#27
Garth, AK is right.
Unemployment was 9.3 not 10 but that’s small potatoes
Lowest labour pat
Rticipation rate since the 70’s
More people on food stamps , 28 mil when he took office ,43 mil when he left. Peaked at 48 mil in 2013 but then again what would you expect from a community organizer. Did a lot of damage to US not sure why a man like you would support Obama ?

#50 Leon on 06.09.17 at 8:08 pm

Guaranteed Vancouver is the last place on earth you want to be living in right now. Bull doze jobs will suffer, and the fixer upper crowd will thin out drastically.

#51 Editrix on 06.09.17 at 8:16 pm

Re: #3 Bort

“‘Over fifty-four thousand new positions, 77,000 of them full-time, and a recovery in wages…’
77,000 of the 54,000 new jobs are f/t… that is a weedy clip.”

I’d call that creative accounting. Garth would call them Frankenumbers.

#52 Mark on 06.09.17 at 8:26 pm

“Opinions from anyone please on how much in general house prices have gone down in Calgary since the oil crunch of 3 years or so ago? My cousin who lives there says it’s a substantial decline but wasn’t able to put a number on it.”

20-30% off of 2011 peak valuations in Calgary sounds about right. Although things seem to have stabilized somewhat as that initial panic to get out has subsided.

#53 Mark on 06.09.17 at 8:30 pm

“A housing bust by BoC rate increases (yea right?) or sheer violation will destroy TSE.”

Not in the 1990s. The housing bust led to banks that had equity valued, on average, 4X higher in 1997-1998, than in the late 1980s. Only Paul Martin/Jean Chretien’s prohibition of bank mergers knocked the wind out of the sails of the banks.

With speculative investment capital liberated from being over-invested in housing, highly speculative sectors such as gold and tech did incredibly well at various points in the 1990s as well. The overall TSE 300/Composite index tripled with a total return approximating 100% with dividends. Someone who invested their 25% downpayment in 1990, by the end of the decade, with housing depreciation and TSE appreciation, could have converted their account to full outright home ownership of a similar quality/type of house originally contemplated a decade prior.

#54 AGuyInVancouver on 06.09.17 at 8:32 pm

LOL, it seems everybody has their tinfoil hats on today. “Frankenumbers” and defending President Dump, what next?

Job numbers pass my Starbucks Test. For the first time in years most of the Starbucks locations have big “We’re Hiring” signs. Usually they have a big enough stockpile of student and Millennial resumes they don’t even have to advertise out in the open. Job market must be good.

#55 Rakagod on 06.09.17 at 8:33 pm

… Wednesday, when the Fed adds its latest quarter-point increase. (The odds given that are almost 100%.) … So much for all the geniuses in the comments section last year who said it would be “ …

It has not even happened and there you are claiming victory. It’s too bad you’ve become one of “geniuses” you say you find in your blog.
This is now called fake news.
Quick tell me the winning numbers of the lottery.

#56 akashic record on 06.09.17 at 8:43 pm

Obama inherited 10% unemployment and halved it. — Garth

Arguably the economic cycle halved it.

Obama started when the economy hit rock bottom and Congress passed the Economic Stimulus Act in 2009.

Trump is taking over at the peak of a cycle, which is marked by the Fed ending the stimulus, that existed during the entire Obama presidency and raising interest rate.

It is quite predictable which direction comes after the top.

#57 Leverage on 06.09.17 at 8:55 pm

Some perspective regarding Trump vs whatever. Trump got 25% of voted. So did Clinton. There were around 1% voted on whatever. So 49% did not vote, refused. Aikin to voting for NOBODY. This is the reality. NOBODY deserved to be president, or is desired to. Wasting time on crap.

#58 Wrk.dover on 06.09.17 at 9:04 pm

That would be like USA creating 770,000 jobs in one month.

Good night to sip some Scotch. Apparently.

#59 Daughter of Ponzi on 06.09.17 at 9:09 pm

#1 Deja Vu on 06.09.17 at 6:00 pm
“In the ruin of all collapsed booms is to be found the work of men who bought property at prices they knew perfectly well were fictitious, but who were willing to pay such prices simply because they knew that some still greater fool could be depended on to take the property off their hands and leave them with a profit.”

Chicago Tribune editorial of April 1890
————————————————
Yes, your forefathers invented Ponzi. What a magnificent contribution to human civilization. Do you not see how cheap and clownish your colonial system is!

#60 Dee on 06.09.17 at 9:12 pm

The big question no one can answer: the surge in listings in toronto, is it because of lack of credit? Has the pain from home cap leaked into how other lenders especially sub prime lenders do business? Now if this is the reason for dwindling sales, it is definitely game over. I wish there was a way to determine this. However, if it’s just panic listing and fear of buying, we just might see another rally…imo

Human nature. Listings always swell in a falling market and contract in a rising one. — Garth

#61 Joe2.0 on 06.09.17 at 9:12 pm

Wall Street investors make 3 Trillion dollars since Trump wins election.

#62 Daughter of Ponzi on 06.09.17 at 9:20 pm

Trump is a complete joke, a real clown just the way the media like them. His grandfather Drumpf got reach running saloons and brothels. It just means then anyone can be POTUS, just pick them from reality shows, don’t even have to pay the actors any more. What a freaking circus! The biggest one on earth and everyone can watch for free. And the world is watching and laughing.

#63 choptstix on 06.09.17 at 9:36 pm

#61/daughter of ponzi.
10000% agree with this orange oompa loompa and his bottom feeders.

#64 Wrk.dover on 06.09.17 at 9:36 pm

Sarcasm was undetected, just like the bs in the employment figure.

Scotch being sipped in Belfountain for sure.

Enjoy it, you deserve it!

#65 Hiding On the Backstreets on 06.09.17 at 9:46 pm

“Well, whatever you think of the guy, he’s cooked as a market-inflater. Were it not for sustained job growth and a resurgence in corporate profitability (neither of which can be attributed to a six-month-old administration), today’s equity valuations might look wobbly with this mercurial man in control.”
________________________________

I appreciate the sensible monetary advice, Garth, and more people, especially the young with long investment timelines, should follow it. I’m talking about plain vanilla index tracking funds, diversified portfolios, not going all-in on R.E.

But please, spare us the predictions on how politics and government policy will affect the markets in the future. It’s contrary to the fine advice you give of diversifying with index funds – be impassive and laugh off the high-priced active money managers.

We get it. You love to hate Trump. But just think about how much less fun your job would be without him.

#66 Today's poli leaders suck on 06.09.17 at 9:50 pm

Why would I hate Trump? He is what he is, and I invest around him. But he’s cooked. — Garth

C’mon Garth.
Investing around the US president is akin to timing the market.
If he’s crooked, what does that make T2?

#67 Binder Dundat on 06.09.17 at 9:51 pm

38 Daughter of Ponzi

“The masters get to keep their slaves working for peanuts, pay them with printed money and all of this enabled by a black president, descendant of slaves. Perfect ain’t it?”

This is racist garbage. If you have an issue with his performance just state it, but leave his skin colour out of it.

#68 Shawn on 06.09.17 at 9:53 pm

I disagree with the decision to sell US equities for international and Canadian equities.

The US has been the global leader since the beginning of the secular bull market (2013). The Nasdaq has finally cleared its 2000 ATHs after recent consolidation during the 2015-16 mini bear market. At 6200 points, the Nasdaq is only modestly above its 2000 high. The fact that it has been leading the S&P500 2:1 YTD is a sign of significant strength and is likely to continue.

In addition, the secular bull market in DXY began in 2015. It’s still very early. USD will likely continue to gain against other global currencies as the FED raises rates and US growth accelerates.

Trump is a distraction. It’s best to completely ignore the media. Price tells a very different story. A contrarian view would be Trump causing a greater climb in US (& global) stocks similar to Reagan in the early 80s or Eisenhower in the 1950s. The current Nasdaq chart looks very similar to the Dow 1950 chart…

I think we’re going much higher, faster than the consensus view. Most global indicies will participate (including Canada), but the US will lead.

That’s why you should own them all. — Garth

#69 the Hammer on 06.09.17 at 10:00 pm

Lots of commenters seem to be buying what Trump is selling. Toronto realtors should take note.

Cato the Elder speaks again, “An angry man opens his mouth and shuts his eyes.”

Trump ire neccesse est

#70 Leo Trollstoy on 06.09.17 at 10:02 pm

The US will be fine. The Canadian economy has also stabilized. And so will the CAD. Inflation is being managed well. Life is good.

#71 Steve French on 06.09.17 at 10:10 pm

I just spent 8 minutes watching a drunken Smoking Man play the slot machines at Casino Niagara on twitter periscope….

– Steve

#72 Doghouse Dweller on 06.09.17 at 10:11 pm

#61 Daughter of Ponzi
What a freaking circus! The biggest one on earth and everyone can watch for free.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
JHK
“Mr. Putin does not have to lift a finger to detonate the groaning garbage barge of US domestic affairs. It’s already ignited and is faring toward a very peculiar species of civil war.
Yes, Mr. P, America has lost its mind. The whole thing has turned into some kind of nonstop Kardashian tranny monster truck shit-show of manufactured melodrama and lost causes, inducing a kind of global nausea that may ultimately prove more fatal than the rising surface temperature and melting icecaps.”

http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/gimme-shelter/

#73 Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 06.09.17 at 10:23 pm

To put the May job numbers of 77k in perspective, Aprils was -33k. The average of these two is around 23k which is about the average expected over time. Most likely, June’s numbers will be close to zero, and then everyone will be freaking out. In reality, it could be normal variations. I try to look at trends on a five-year scale to smooth out this kind of turbulence.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/full-time-employment

#74 Alex k on 06.09.17 at 10:24 pm

DELETED

#75 45north on 06.09.17 at 10:33 pm

GTA appraiser: “The real estate board says prices fell 6% last month,” he says, “but I’d say it’s more like 15%. Besides, we’re being told by our bank clients to shave another ten or fifteen points from that before submitting the report.”

that got my attention!

on an $800,000 listing, you shave off 30% you get $560,000. Then an 80% mortgage gets you $448,000. You need $100,000 in the bank plus $252,000 second mortgage.

When the banks decide to prick the bubble, it’s pricked.

#76 Alex k on 06.09.17 at 10:40 pm

#56
And where did you get these #’s? They’re wrong – 58% went to the polls, same as 2012 now go back to your basement

#77 jealous prez.Trump haters on 06.09.17 at 10:42 pm

DELETED

#78 TCContrarian on 06.09.17 at 10:49 pm

“…those who bought and closed six, eight or 12 months ago with a 10% or 15% down payment have effectively lost 100% of their equity. It may come back. It might not.”-GT
—————————————————————-

Of course it’ll come back! In nominal terms, maybe a decade. In real terms? Not ever!
Who needs chains for slavery, when you’ve got…DEBT!

The banksters figured this out a long time ago…and they even managed the sheeple to want more of it!

Got gold?

TCC

#79 When the Whip Comes Down on 06.09.17 at 10:54 pm

#36 game back on – does anyone know that those percentages by foreign nationals before and after the tax in Victoria are verifiably correct? I have never seen it reported they were that high even before the tax. Is this new data or old? What is the source of this data. The before the tax number at 16.8 looks even higher than it was in Vancouver before the tax. Would love to know where this data point was drawn from.

#80 Daughter of Ponzi on 06.09.17 at 11:00 pm

#66 Binder Dundat on 06.09.17 at 9:51 pm
38 Daughter of Ponzi

“The masters get to keep their slaves working for peanuts, pay them with printed money and all of this enabled by a black president, descendant of slaves. Perfect ain’t it?”

This is racist garbage. If you have an issue with his performance just state it, but leave his skin colour out of it.
——————————————————————-
For his performance as a puppet I give him the highest marks. But not as funny as Bill Clinton aka Slick Willie. Now that was a performance. POTUS is equal opportunity employment for puppets/psychopaths of all races and genders LBGTVBLJK.

#81 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 06.09.17 at 11:04 pm

It seems Garth does not like to hear from Screwed Canadian Millenials.

Just not the Immigrant-hating ones. — Garth

#82 viorelli on 06.09.17 at 11:06 pm

My son’s high school friend who was a civil engineer working out of Surrey, BC. just moved to Shanghai, China. He was grossing close to 90 grand before taxes, luckily he is fluent in Mandarin although he was born in Canada, I guess his parents speak it at home. My son says he signed for 10 year contract over there, almost double the wages and flat 10% tax on earnings, other benefits like transportation and company rent discount also provided. I just cannot understand it, how can communists pay higher wages than Canadian firms, are we not a first world country?

#83 Smoking Man on 06.09.17 at 11:07 pm

DELETED

#84 Alex k on 06.09.17 at 11:07 pm

Re#73
BTW that stands for ‘My Friend’
Hey Garth , trying to be politically correct? Eh?
It is important to be just correct

#85 Daughter of Ponzi on 06.09.17 at 11:08 pm

#69 Leo Trollstoy on 06.09.17 at 10:02 pm
The US will be fine. The Canadian economy has also stabilized. And so will the CAD. Inflation is being managed well. Life is good.
————————————————————
Sure, tell this to the peasants down south. They are pretty busy sharpening pitches and forks.

#86 Smoking Man on 06.09.17 at 11:12 pm

A religion experience.

Watching gogo dancers with Johnny Cash on the ear buds.

Praise the lord.

#87 Smoking Man on 06.09.17 at 11:19 pm

Forgot or was to. You know to add the link. Where is my room the next challenge.

https://youtu.be/It7107ELQvY

Life from my glasses prospective. Ah its pretty good.

#88 steerage steward on 06.09.17 at 11:23 pm

The odder the rest of the world gets, the happier I am that my parents migrated to Canada.

Rational, reasonable, boring. These are not insults anymore, they are rear things in the world.

Happy Friday anyway you reasonable people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DB4z492z2hg

#89 Nero on 06.09.17 at 11:23 pm

#41 DOP….
Ha Ha…indeed!, So who pays your bills?….
Look in the mirror honey…we are all prostitutes.
..You can have my old spot on the corner, it’s available now.

#90 Smoking Man on 06.09.17 at 11:35 pm

When you realize your calling is a writer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAGnKpE4NCI&sns=em

So your old life don’t matter much. Im all in with 31 fans.

It can grow.

So

#91 Daughter of Ponzi on 06.09.17 at 11:41 pm

#70 Steve French on 06.09.17 at 10:10 pm
I just spent 8 minutes watching a drunken Smoking Man play the slot machines at Casino Niagara on twitter periscope….
_____________________________
Really! Why?

#92 Daughter of Ponzi on 06.09.17 at 11:48 pm

#89 Smoking Man on 06.09.17 at 11:35 pm
When you realize your calling is a writer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAGnKpE4NCI&sns=em

So your old life don’t matter much. Im all in with 31 fans.

It can grow.
———————————
i will be your fan Jim if you promise to shut it up. We had enough of your redneck extravaganza.

#93 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 06.09.17 at 11:50 pm

Hey Garth, questioning immigration levels is not being an immigrant hater. We have outsourcing, offshoring, downsizing, TFWs and automation. There is absolutely no economic justification for 320,000 immigrants per year. Canadian workers need a raise ffs and some job quality.

I think we need to reduce immigration levels to 100k. They should be tied to current labour market needs. Not an imaginary labour shortage that does not exist and will not exist. Again, that doesn’t make me an immigrant hater.

Was Pierre Trudeau racist when he reduced immigration to 90k per year in 1980s? Cmon now.

Also, the TFW program should be abolished. Corporations need to stop being entitled to cheap foreign slave labour. They are the immigrant haters and exploiters. Not me. I thought you were all for capitalism, the market, and the supply & demand of labour?

Job quality in Canada at 25-year low, says CIBC
Part-time and low-wage work on the rise, and the problem is getting worse
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/job-quality-in-canada-at-25-year-low-says-cibc-1.2982891

I say all this with peace and love Garth. Peace and love. Big fan of your blog. Just not a fan of how this country has completely screwed over an entire generation of young people with shambolic jobs, wages and PUBLIC debt coupled with sky high cost of living and housing.

There are 32.6 million of us, and immigration is running at 0.98% annually. Your being under-employed is – guess what? – statistically your fault, not that of families who arrived here starting from scratch. By the way, the greatest number of immigrants to Canada is from the Philippines, where the average income is $289 a month. Suck it up, snowflake. — Garth

#94 Ignorance Is Bliss on 06.09.17 at 11:58 pm

Just catching up on the comments section from the last couple of days, and wanted to comment on a few banking questions.

@InvestorsFriend re: when someone’s bank account stops getting direct deposits, does this raise a red flag with the bank? Answer: not at all. This doesn’t mean they’re not working anymore. Many jobs – in the restaurant biz, for example – pay by cheque, not direct deposit. Besides which, the bank has millions of customers to keep track of…

@Howard re: why would the HELOC insurance not cover the balance if a death occurred at age 70 or later? Although I’m not an expert in this (I don’t sell balance insurance protection) I assume, like any insurance, that the risk grows exponentially at that point. If you knew your HELOC balance would just get wiped out when you die (which we all eventually will), then why pay it off at all?

@Smartalox – You’re so right! Balance insurance (mortgage insurance, HELOC insurance, etc) is HUGE PROFIT for the banks, the smart money stays far away from these products.

#95 neo on 06.10.17 at 12:14 am

#59 Dee on 06.09.17 at 9:12 pm
The big question no one can answer: the surge in listings in toronto, is it because of lack of credit? Has the pain from home cap leaked into how other lenders especially sub prime lenders do business? Now if this is the reason for dwindling sales, it is definitely game over. I wish there was a way to determine this. However, if it’s just panic listing and fear of buying, we just might see another rally…imo

Human nature. Listings always swell in a falling market and contract in a rising one. — Garth

*******************************************

No. You had it right, I am surprised Garth hasn’t written about this but there were articles this week discussing the fact that subprime interest rates are up 0.5 to 2.0% since this Home Capital debacle. Not only that but it is harder to get that loan than before. When markets get this stretched it is the marginal buyer who really could never afford the home in the first place that rushes in at the end.

#96 Jay_Huhman on 06.10.17 at 12:16 am

“There are 3141 counties in the U.S.
Trump won 3084 of them.
Clinton won 57.”

The above is a joke of course.
http://www.factcheck.org/2016/12/clinton-counties/

#97 steerage steward on 06.10.17 at 12:17 am

We are living in the best time by any measure.

Don’t let despair consomme you, look around you and see good people, all around.

Look up at the stars, and see where our grand kids will visit

#98 Gregor Samsa on 06.10.17 at 12:34 am

>Opinions from anyone please on how much in general house prices have gone down in Calgary since the oil crunch of 3 years or so ago?

Calgary house prices have not gone down at all. Average detached homes have just hit an all time high actually. See the chart: http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

Condos have started to drop though, some have gone down by 30% and there is a lot of inventory building.

The fundamental driver of housing in Canada, and in Calgary, is not really oil. It’s record low interest rates combined with house horniness. Neither of those have changed. Just today I overheard some women chatting at the next table at lunch. Guess what they were talking about? You guessed it, buying houses.

Two scary things about Calgary though: one is that oil patch layoffs are quietly continuing (just in small numbers to stay under the radar) and there are literally hundreds and hundreds of cheap rental units available. You’d think anyone with two brain cells to rub together would think that makes it a bad time to buy, but I’m no longer positive home buyers in Canada actually have brains…

This is also why predictions of doom for Toronto and Vancouver may be premature.

#99 paulo on 06.10.17 at 12:56 am

Are we seeing the beginning of a mortgage funding crunch? had a discussion with a individual today that is trying to refi a mortgage and having a hell of a time.

the person has owned the property for 10 yrs currently mortgaged at about 50% ltv looking to go to 58%.
both parties on title husband and wife have solid fico scores mid 700’s clean credit history all R1 for both
only outside factors both are self employed but have very well documented long term income sources years of supporting noa’s normally good risk to be sure.
they can not get a second glance from the big 6 whom a
few month’s ago where soliciting there paper .
i have heard similar stories lately ,and plenty of crying from my real estate circle of friends concerning the number of deals gone south at the financing window,deals that would have been no issue a couple month’s ago to get bought are being gunned down seems the financing window has closed considerably recently and there is a cold chill developing
could it be the big guys are running scared?

#100 Bobby on 06.10.17 at 1:23 am

For #81 viorelli,

I work in Asia. There are reasons why they pay higher wages, to attract people. Besides your salary is irrelevant, it’s your benefits that really matter. Housing, schooling, medical, they all cost a lot. How many people do you see immigrating to that part of the world? They all seem to want to come to Canada.

#101 Sir James on 06.10.17 at 2:01 am

Now that the witch hunt is over everything should go back to normal soon. Drain the swamp.

#102 Where's The Money Guido? on 06.10.17 at 4:08 am

Re: #40 Fake News on 06.09.17 at 7:46 pm
Trump is crooked but the Clintons who worked for govt most of their adult careers are worth over 300 million dollars. Go figure.

Don’t forget the $3 billion in donations they moved from their “foundation” to rebuild earthquake ravaged Haiti to Switzerland just before the election. That $300 million is peanuts. You can count the homes they built with that 3 bil on one hand.
They truly are the sleaziest scum ‘Merica has produced and people still like them.
Fools….
Gary Webb and other journos implicated them in the cocaine for guns Contra deal when Bill was governor of Arkansas, along with the CIA-NSA. Webb ended up dead, of course they said suicide, along with Michael Ruppert, a former LA cop who exposed the LA Police in the cocaine conspiracy.
Absolutely horrid.
And the deep state wants to get rid of Trump because he won’t toe their disgusting line like most presidents.
Just look at what Obama is worth now, a couple hundred million, pretty good return on $400k/year salary. He just bought himself an $8 million dollar house for effs sake.
Just look at how close Comey is to the Clintons, with Comey’s brother their lawyer for the foundation and Comey at one time a Director of that “foundation”, also receiving money through on of the foundation’s contractors.
Who really has the most to lose, not Trump. This is a witch hunt by very nervous criminals who I hope get their just desserts, like a public lynching. Or off with their heads! Guillotine!

#103 Freemake on 06.10.17 at 4:12 am

huge job numbers = that makes the coming $15 Ontario Minimum wage make more sense.

#104 James Kook on 06.10.17 at 5:52 am

Just curious, why 20% of Canada?
Are Americans also supposed to have 20% of Canadian stocks to be truly balanced? :-)

I really doubt, they buy Canada’s stocks at all.

What about Germans? If they buy 20% of Germany?
In the global system, as the market is, it must be irrelevant to your country.
All balanced portfolios must have similar part of Canada,
something about 3% :-)

#105 James Kook on 06.10.17 at 6:25 am

>>>>> #81 viorelli on 06.09.17 at 11:06 pm

…. I just cannot understand it, how can communists pay higher wages than Canadian firms, are we not a first world country?

This is typical way of thinking of those who never lived outside of Canada :-)
Canada is first in the world in SPCA and in protecting all kinds of sealions,
as for the wages? – yes, you are right.

#106 neo on 06.10.17 at 6:42 am

#97 paulo on 06.10.17 at 12:56 am

You are correct. Credit is tightening from the Big 6 as well as Alt-lenders. Financial institutions don’t want to be left holding the bag anymore than buyers do. Sellers are still stubborn though and don’t realize what is actually going on behind the scenes.

#107 neo on 06.10.17 at 6:43 am

#101 Freemake on 06.10.17 at 4:12 am
huge job numbers = that makes the coming $15 Ontario Minimum wage make more sense.

**********************************************

How does one month gain for May 2017 have anything to do with what our economy will be in 2019. We could very well be in the middle of a nasty recession by then.

#108 Gel Ussey on 06.10.17 at 7:03 am

This pathetic blog seems pretty jealous of Trump. He has more money than all of you – guess that is why :)

How much money the President of the US personally possesses is relevant…why? — Garth

#109 maxx on 06.10.17 at 7:43 am

For those in the black:

Were you a bank, wouldn’t you rush to tighten lending criteria, given the typical Canadian balance sheet?

At nearly 1.7 times debt to income, and given the inevitable rate rises to come, that would be a total and immediate slam-dunk.

GIC rates are already rising and will continue to do so for a long time to come. Being the skeptic I am, there is a heap of money to be harvested from existing and growing debt. No charity coming from banks.

The debt-free and savers will be putting on their sunglasses.

#110 Penny Henny on 06.10.17 at 8:21 am

At the same time, those who bought and closed six, eight or 12 months ago with a 10% or 15% down payment have effectively lost 100% of their equity. It may come back. It might not.-GT
///////////////////

As true as this statement may be in a few months time I would say currently it is only those who bought 2-4 months ago that have lost money

Math is hard, isn’t it? — Garth

#111 Howard on 06.10.17 at 8:23 am

#98 Bobby on 06.10.17 at 1:23 am
For #81 viorelli,

I work in Asia. There are reasons why they pay higher wages, to attract people. Besides your salary is irrelevant, it’s your benefits that really matter. Housing, schooling, medical, they all cost a lot. How many people do you see immigrating to that part of the world? They all seem to want to come to Canada.

———————————-

Well yes, Canada has a higher standard of living than any Asian country save Japan, to state the obvious.

But why would Canadians of talent stay? What does Canada offer? It has all the worst capitalist excesses of the US but without the high wages. It also has the worst Nanny State excesses of Europe but without the generous vacation time, pensions, and subsidised transit.

If a young Canadian with talents gets an opportunity to work in the US or Europe, he/she is well-advised to do so. Canada offers them nothing.

#112 Penny Henny on 06.10.17 at 8:25 am

#14 Nero on 06.09.17 at 6:43 pm
Freedom 54 in 12 days….. :)

//////////////

AWESOME! Congrats!

#113 economictsunami on 06.10.17 at 8:25 am

The BoJ / ECB continue to gobble up approximately $300B per month in assets: with the PBoC responsible for heaven knows how much more added liquidity.

This on again/ off again “recovery” is very long in the tooth but the MSM keeps falling for the financial community’s narratives.

The bottom line is this:

Financial alchemy may kick the can down the road but it fails to repeal economic/ business cycles

Just ask Japan…

Wage Growth Is the Key to .. Well, Everything

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-07/wage-growth-is-the-key-to-well-everything

Next Asset Bubble Cracks: It’s so Big even the Fed is Fretting

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/06/07/next-asset-bubble-cracks-its-so-big-even-the-fed-is-fretting/

#114 jess on 06.10.17 at 9:05 am

shared services?

AFP smashes $165 million tax fraud syndicate
“It will be alleged in court that the fraud involved a company established by the syndicate to provide payroll services to legitimate clients. The money received from these companies was transferred to subcontracted companies – allegedly controlled by syndicate members – to process payroll. While processing these payments, funds paid by legitimate clients to service tax obligations were allegedly diverted by the syndicate for their own personal gain.

Tax Office investigators estimate the amount of tax obligations not paid to the ATO to be approximately $165 million.”
https://www.afp.gov.au/news-media/media-releases/afp-smashes-165-million-tax-fraud-syndicate

==========
BT scandal

global services

BT Cuts 4,000 Jobs, CEO’s Pay After Italy Accounting Scandal …
https://www.bloomberg.com/…/bt-takes-aim-at-executive-pay-over-italy-accounting-s…
May 10, 2017 – BT Group Plc is clawing back management pay and eliminating 4,000 jobs as it seeks to rebuild investor confidence and overhaul the division involved in an accounting scandal in Italy. The cuts involve scrapping bonuses for Chief Executive Officer Gavin Patterson and former Chief
(£9.9bn: BT Group pension deficit as at June 2015)

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2001/09/24/bt_releases_its_demerger_plans/

#115 BobC on 06.10.17 at 9:16 am

#94 Jay

“He isn’t saying that Trump won all 3,084 counties outright, just that in those 3,084 counties in what he calls “America’s heartland,” Trump won the popular vote by a large margin.”

Calling it a “joke” says a lot about your feelings doesn’t it. I truly understand why citizens of other countries are against anybody trying to make America great again, whatever that entails. The world, with our permission has used America to their own benefit.
Like the father who has to cut the kids allowance is damned and hated for being stingy America will be resented for cutting the give-away programs of the past.
What the world has to realize is America is broke. We’re no longer the wealthiest or the freest country in the world. Canada beats us by far.

#116 Lahdeedah on 06.10.17 at 9:27 am

Hi Garth,

I have a question regarding, “Thomas has been an appraiser, he tells me, for thirty years, mostly in the east end of the GTA. He called to say his job just turned into a living hell because what a house is worth today is not what it was worth a week ago.”

I am sure you’re aware of the Real Matters IPO last month – Real Matters, for those who don’t know, is one of Canada’s top 3 startup companies that collects the ‘big data’ generated by home appraisers in North America (Canada and US), and then sells that data to banks and insurance companies.

Given the above quoted statement, and the latest downward turn in the real estate industry, does this mean good news or bad news, or no news, for a company like Real Matters?

Granted, something like 90% of their clients are US-based, and they’re picking up more and more clients from their US competitors, so they are skewed towards the US economy in a way, and no one client makes up a majority of their portfolio, so they are client-diversified as well.

Having said all that, how will the current/future real estate market treat them? In spite of their good financial track record, good outlook for growth, and recent IPO.

Don’t invest. — Garth

#117 Cto on 06.10.17 at 9:47 am

Honestly I don’t think poloz has got it in him. he has spent his whole career lowering rates. it’s all he knows, it’s who he is…
Come on Poloz….muster up the courage to do the right thing!

#118 Ron on 06.10.17 at 9:56 am

#110 Howard

But why would Canadians of talent stay? What does Canada offer? It has all the worst capitalist excesses of the US but without the high wages. It also has the worst Nanny State excesses of Europe but without the generous vacation time, pensions, and subsidised transit.

———————–

As an American with bankable talent, I choose to live in Canada. It certainly does not have all the worst capitalist excesses of America, for example private prisons.

America is generally safe and orderly for most people but there is a mean, unforgiving, Puritan mentality under the surface. Step out of line just once and God help you. You can get shot, sued, imprisoned if someone is having a bad day, or bankrupted by an illness.

No thanks, I’ll take a pay cut to live in a much saner society.

#119 Joey Jo-Jo Shabadoo, Jr. on 06.10.17 at 10:03 am

Hi Garth, wondering if you could comment on why Canada should be 20+ % of a balanced portfolio when it is just 2-3 % of the world economy. And also, it seems to me that Canada is more positively correlated with US market these days with both moving more in step with oil prices, something I don’t believe was true in the past. Would you agree? And if so, does that not suggest a higher weighting in International stocks? Thanks!

#120 TurnerNation on 06.10.17 at 10:03 am

Time for my monthly contribution at Dollarama.
Kanadians should tithe 5% of their income there. Our only hope.

But I believe its stock topped out this year – at $130. Holding kaput options now – targeting $115. ☆

#121 Bonhomme Carnaval on 06.10.17 at 10:08 am

Wow. Lots of angry millionaires on this blog today.

Come to Montréal this (Grand Prix) weekend. Blow of some steam. Have some fun. Spend some of those millions!

Our local economy will thank you. :-)

Peace,

#122 Contrarian Coyote on 06.10.17 at 10:09 am

#91 Daughter of Ponzi on 06.09.17 at 11:48 pm
#89 Smoking Man on 06.09.17 at 11:35 pm
When you realize your calling is a writer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAGnKpE4NCI&sns=em

So your old life don’t matter much. Im all in with 31 fans.

It can grow.
———————————
i will be your fan Jim if you promise to shut it up. We had enough of your redneck extravaganza.

===

Sort of like the rest of us with your anti-Trump jihad. Are you an American expat grumbling in the GTA or just a bored Canuck who watches too much MSM? I think you’re on the wrong blog and would be much happier on Reddit or someplace similar.

Sorry, back on topic – RE in the Kawarthas is piling up with listings. It’s interesting to see the cottages north of Lakefield sit longer and longer. Some of these places are $1mil+ and few have discounted yet. Ronnie Hawkins’ place is till holding strong at $4.25mil. I would love to know the story of why he’s selling.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18017473/2250-6TH-LINE-ROAD-OUT-OF-BOARD-Ontario-K0L2H0

#123 toronto1 on 06.10.17 at 10:11 am

@ #98 paulo

Banks are pulling back their available credit, as with all bubbles on the way up credit is easy and available on the way down it restricts.

No white knight is available to take the place of Home Capital- without them the marginal buyers are out- meaning prices will go to where incomes can afford.

Its about safety now and not market share

re: Tom the appraiser– some very serious implications in that large a drop in a short span (20-30%)

the banks models must be showing them a pull back of 20-30% in the short term as they are adjusting their available credit–

and we are just weeks in, sure some deals are falling apart and credit is getting tight but for now this news is restricted to those either in the industry or whom follow it. Not even close to being mainstream yet-

the herd for now is oblivious

Wait until the Oct-Feb stretch hits, thats when some actual fear will prevail, a lot of deals will fall apart- listings will have had multiple price drops and still not have sold- some of the weakest hands, the speculators and folks on the margin will have capitulated by then dropping the floor to price levels unseen in years in the GTA.

Thats when it will become mainstream and you will start to see some panic. People think we have an inventory listings flood now ,just wait and see.

At some point in the next 9-12 months apparel value for homes will be in the same range as median 2015 prices- when that happens, all those speculators that brought then will flood the exits to at least break even or lock limit their losses.

hope you have your Ark ready

#124 Dan.t on 06.10.17 at 10:12 am

When either rates rise or credit actually tightens so that Timmy working at his just above minimum wage job can no longer qualify for a 395k condo (after help from Bank of Mom of course) then thing will change.

But someone mentioned it here too, that is why housing is sticky and the public, doing what they typically do, are still taking about buying houses and talking only about real estate right at the top of the market. Even in Calgary, when renting would smash buying hands down in terms of making financial sense, nope, Calgary Canadians want to buy real estate, it is strange.

It is religion in Canada and that is hard to change until really, and I mean really, no average person can reasonably afford an over priced condo or townhouse…then things might change.

Look at YVR, fools still buying the only thing that is affordable but only affordable because credit is flowing and rates are emergency level still for 10 years. Religious belief in the All Mighty Real Estate GOD. Never will go down, it’s different here mentality.

All these stupid government measure do noting until you force people to actually have to have money to buy something. Figure it out 2 trillion debt, all chasing 1 item (Housing) and nose bleed unaffordable bubble housing prices. Weird how that works.

Good thing policy makes have it all under control. Banks love Canadians. They made the majority of the population their bitches for life. I guess on Canada Debt is freedom…strange mentality.

#125 Ole Doberman P. on 06.10.17 at 10:12 am

Gartho has balls of steel making predictions on HCG and buyouts, but looks like he was right again – some kinda partnership anyway:

http://www.bnn.ca/home-capital-reportedly-approached-by-catalyst-capital-to-form-partnership-1.775049

#126 joblo on 06.10.17 at 10:26 am

Is America great again yet?

Watch out:

http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rogers-worst-crash-lifetime-coming-2017-6

#127 dumber than i thought on 06.10.17 at 10:27 am

#74 45north on 06.09.17 at 10:33 pm

the right value for that 800k house is probably 550k given the low interest rates. that was the value approx 2 years ago before the two poloz cuts and the subsequent craziness that followed. given what has sold in the past two years, the ppl of toronto are dumber than i thought.

#128 Keith in Calgary on 06.10.17 at 10:51 am

The Bay just announced they are cutting 2000 jobs over the next 36 months.

I expect more announcements like this to follow as a result of our “economic recovery”.

#129 Koshy Alex on 06.10.17 at 10:51 am

#38 Daughter of Ponzi on 06.09.17 at 7:40 pm

The masters get to keep their slaves working for peanuts, pay them with printed money and all of this enabled by a black president, descendant of slaves. Perfect ain’t it?

DOP there is a real chance of you getting blocked from posting :)) financial gurus​ don’t want to talk about that side of the story,
There is no manipulation, the Fed is always right, don’t fight the Fed, you will always lose !!

We are seeing a a real crash in RE prices in Toronto, one step that can bring this permanently down is to strictly implement the anti money laundering laws we have, but I don’t think the government or the banks that control the government wants to see this happen. No one checks the source of money that is being brought into Canada.

Last week I was visiting my colleague who is from Bangladesh, naturally the conversation turned to RE, one of his friends who was there told a story about a mid level official from Bangladesh who bought land for 1.8 mil and built a house there, I don’t want to post the address. This guy is just a govt official not even a politician and if he can bring in money like this without any problem and invest in RE, people who work and pay taxes here can only​ dream about buying in GTA even with the softening of prices. He said most of the specialist doctors are sending their families out because of the unstable political situation there. Most of these people they say have the capacity to buy houses in the million dollar range. It seems HAM is not just Chinese, any one who can make money illegally back in these countries is finding a safe haven in Canada because of our soft approach to money laundering.

#130 Bobby on 06.10.17 at 11:19 am

For #110 Howard,

I doubt you have ever been to Asia. Have a look at Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and you will see a very high standard of living. Here in Canada we believe in too much of the lefty political hype.

#131 Snowflake on 06.10.17 at 11:20 am

#92 Screwed Canadian Millenial

“Your being under-employed is – guess what? – statistically your fault, not that of families who arrived here starting from scratch.”

Yeah, let’s suck it up. Just because Millennials are over educated, earned way too much skill and experience for this economy “No Te Caliente” amigo.

The Trudeau, Wynne, Clark and Notley governments new Economic Action Plans will have your back. adios

#132 Cto on 06.10.17 at 11:24 am

#69 leo trollstoy
“The US will be fine. The Canadian economy has also stabilized. And so will the CAD. Inflation is being managed well. Life is good.”

Ya, that’s right Leo! that’s why we should buy buy, buy, till you can’t leverage anymore debt. Right Leo?

#133 Cto on 06.10.17 at 11:25 am

Sounds like Leo would like interest rates to stay right where they are…
Hmmmmm…….

#134 Mattl on 06.10.17 at 11:31 am

No one has lost any equity until they sell. We have been told repeatedly that equity gains are not real until a house is sold, well the same logic has to apply on falling house prices.

And the large majority of homeowners will be able to make their payments and will see their equity come back. How has the guy that bought a sfh in Toron in 1987 and rode through the 89 crash done? Has his equity come back? Of course, that guy paid off that house 10 years ago and is sitting on a 1.5mm property that may now be only worth 1.1.

Bottom line for most of us a crash or correction means very little, we make our payments and life goes on. Pay off the home and what its worth is what its worth. You have to live somewhere.

The small group of folks that bought more then they can afford or used their homes as an ATM? Screw em, they will lose their homes, the market corrects and the cycle begins again. Just look at the US, ten year later and the owners that rode it out are closer to owning their homes and prices are back or above 2005 levels. Folks on the sidelines got great deals on homes and the smart money scooped up multiple properties and made a killing.

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.10.17 at 11:31 am

@#14 Neo
Freedom 54 in 12 days :)
,,,,,,,,,

Another hard working govt beaurocat bites the dust?

#136 Penny Henny on 06.10.17 at 11:33 am

#109 Penny Henny on 06.10.17 at 8:21 am
At the same time, those who bought and closed six, eight or 12 months ago with a 10% or 15% down payment have effectively lost 100% of their equity. It may come back. It might not.-GT
///////////////////

As true as this statement may be in a few months time I would say currently it is only those who bought 2-4 months ago that have lost money

Math is hard, isn’t it? — Garth

///////////////////////////////////

May prices YoY are still up 15%

#137 Howard on 06.10.17 at 11:37 am

#107 Gel Ussey on 06.10.17 at 7:03 am
This pathetic blog seems pretty jealous of Trump. He has more money than all of you – guess that is why :)

————————-

For all his money and his massive headstart in life, he actually seems like a profoundly unhappy and insecure person. So no, I’m not jealous of him.

#138 MF on 06.10.17 at 11:43 am

44 Pete on 06.09.17 at 8:00 pm

Also, let’s say we ignore the fact the US was at the bottom of the economic cycle and there was nowhere to go but up..

The supposed “recovery” is the worst on record.

Good riddance to Obama I say.

MF

#139 MF on 06.10.17 at 11:46 am

#114 BobC on 06.10.17 at 9:16 am

Pathetic how people cry and moan about the US….yet the first calamity that hits (war, famine, disease, weather) the first thing everyone does is run to the US for help.

The most sickening is all the conspiracy theorists. Makes me sick.

MF

#140 Tony on 06.10.17 at 11:54 am

Funny I haven’t seen any resurgence in corporate profitability since the year 2007. Cost cutting and the rewriting of accounting rules is all I’ve seen.

#141 Xbox Economist on 06.10.17 at 12:15 pm

“Hence, the odds of an increase in the next few months are approaching one-in-four. As for a move by this time next year, they’re seven in ten.”

Let’s put things in perspective shall we? Those odds are for a 25bps rise in rates to a whopping 0.75% next year. Still emergency levels by any measure. In the mean time both Cad bonds and US TSYs are signaling long term rates will remain low. This, combined with a short term declining economic outlook, means that rates, even if they move up, could be range bound for the next decade.

Markets don’t automatically assume long term rates will move higher just because the Fed is saying they will raise short term rates “soon”. They try and anticipate how Fed policy will change with the release of economic data. The movements at the moment indicate that the Fed will adjust their policy stance.

#142 maxx on 06.10.17 at 12:24 pm

#33 Ummmm on 06.09.17 at 7:18 pm

…”With regard to interest rates, if the go up by .25% they will go back Down really fast because the economy will crash forcing a reduction.”

Not this time. Bank scrutiny is on the increase – on a sharp curve. Harvest time is coming, what with country-wide fields of consumer debt waving in the breeze. It will be a long and healthy harvest for lenders and savers.

http://gicwealth.ca/

For the longest time, 5-year rates were at 2.25% and in the past week or so, have jumped to 3%.

Rate rises won’t “crash” the economy. On the contrary, it will fleece crappy debt out of it. Business will survive as it always has, except for the duds. A new respect for money will emerge and Canada’s economy will (finally) regain traction.

#143 A Reply to #107 Gel Ussey on 06.10.17 at 12:41 pm

“This pathetic blog seems pretty jealous of Trump. He has more money than all of you – guess that is why :)”

How much money the President of the US personally possesses is relevant…why? — Garth

I’d just like to add that I, for one, am not jealous of billionaires. For example, I feel happy and inspired by Oprah Winfrey, Stephen Spielberg, and Warren Buffett; but I feel appalled and disgusted by (the pariahs) Bill Cosby and Donald Trump.

Money doesn’t alter the equation!

#144 TheDood on 06.10.17 at 1:03 pm

#98 Bobby on 06.10.17 at 1:23 am
For #81 viorelli,

I work in Asia. There are reasons why they pay higher wages, to attract people. Besides your salary is irrelevant, it’s your benefits that really matter. Housing, schooling, medical, they all cost a lot. How many people do you see immigrating to that part of the world? They all seem to want to come to Canada.

———————————-

Well yes, Canada has a higher standard of living than any Asian country save Japan, to state the obvious.

But why would Canadians of talent stay? What does Canada offer? It has all the worst capitalist excesses of the US but without the high wages. It also has the worst Nanny State excesses of Europe but without the generous vacation time, pensions, and subsidised transit.

If a young Canadian with talents gets an opportunity to work in the US or Europe, he/she is well-advised to do so. Canada offers them nothing.

______________________

The ONLY thing Canada has going for it that most asian countries do not have is political stability. Canada’s standard of living is not that good, unless you completely discount debt used to acquire material wealth. Nobody in their right mind would consider taking on the debt loads that Canadians do.

I had the opportunity of living/working overseas for nearly 20 years and using hindsight, it was a HUGE mistake moving back to Canada but one that I’ve been able to move past. Come retirement, SE Asia is the target. Canada is much, much too expensive.

You are 100% correct as per young Canadian talent, there is absolutely no reason for anyone who is young, educated, and talented to stay here.

#145 Nero on 06.10.17 at 1:04 pm

#111 Penny H,

Thank you Penny. :)

36 years in the trenches of front line public service.
….the truly strong are the kind,polite, and friendly ones.
My empathy and compassion for the rest.
Cheers all.

#146 Tony on 06.10.17 at 1:06 pm

Re: #7 Joshua on 06.09.17 at 6:16 pm

In the past when the stock market was actually related to the economy predicting the stock market or timing it was child’s play. Day traders of the past would time the market. Today that has been replaced with day trading individual stocks since there no longer is a market.

#147 Ace Goodheart on 06.10.17 at 1:07 pm

Some people are going to take a bath on this. Not so much the inner city of Toronto home owners. Detached houses will always be unobtanium there. But folks in places like Oshawa and Burlington who paid a mil or two on speculation with the intent of flipping in six months for a six figure profit are going to get haircuts.

#148 Karma on 06.10.17 at 1:10 pm

Good read:
“Experience is overrated”.

http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2017/06/09/experience-is-overrated/

#149 Penny Henny on 06.10.17 at 1:14 pm

#119 TurnerNation on 06.10.17 at 10:03 am
Time for my monthly contribution at Dollarama.
Kanadians should tithe 5% of their income there. Our only hope.
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

Dollarama is becoming a rip off. Check out Dollartree. Max price is $1.25

#150 MF on 06.10.17 at 1:14 pm

#143 TheDood

Lol at this comment.

Political stability is EVERYTHING.

And you cannot figure out why people would want to move to Canada?

Just lol

MF

#151 Tony on 06.10.17 at 1:15 pm

Re: #141 maxx on 06.10.17 at 12:24 pm

5 year GIC rates haven’t gone up one iota. Those 3 percent 5 year rates are the posted rates at Home Trust and Home Bank both owned by Home Capital Corporation. The future of Home Trust and Home Bank are unknown at this time.

#152 Karma on 06.10.17 at 1:19 pm

Garth’s warnings are in the Globe today…

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/as-torontos-housing-market-cools-some-sellers-face-tricky-situations/article35270886/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe

#153 Careful on Trump Garth on 06.10.17 at 1:23 pm

If anything Trump is unpredictable.

Canada & NAFTA can get its wings clipped in the stroke of a pen by Trump.

Ciao, Canadian bombast.

#154 joblo on 06.10.17 at 1:33 pm

#143 TheDood on 06.10.17 at 1:03 pm

Hey The Dood, could you share some of your SE Asia experience and destination potential?

Most of the previous posters on the topic where a little tough to believe.

Cheers

#155 odd on 06.10.17 at 1:47 pm

garth , doug and ryan have written blogs about the perils of market timing.

yet, your firm engages in it. You have changed geographical % recently, again. Changes within a 3 month span? Are you saying for the retail investor dont market time leave it to the pros?

please advise

That’s funny. We made a 3% weighting adjustment, the first in two years. — Garth

#156 Batman is dead on 06.10.17 at 1:49 pm

Holy bankruptcy

#157 45north on 06.10.17 at 2:00 pm

toronto1: following comments by paulo and neo:

Banks are pulling back their available credit, as with all bubbles on the way up credit is easy and available on the way down it restricts.

Its about safety now and not market share

the banks models must be showing them a pull back of 20-30% in the short term as they are adjusting their available credit–

and we are just weeks in, sure some deals are falling apart and credit is getting tight but for now this news is restricted to those either in the industry or whom follow it. Not even close to being mainstream yet

that’s what I sense but without first-hand knowledge of the banking industry

cto: Honestly I don’t think Stephen Poloz has got it in him. he has spent his whole career lowering rates. it’s all he knows, it’s who he is

truly

joblo: from your link: Jim Rogers: “we live in Asia, my children speak Mandarin”. I like him but he went a little overboard. He moved to Singapore and made sure his daughters learned Mandarin. That’s pretty traumatic. It would have been a lot more pleasant if he had stayed in the US but encouraged them to learn Spanish and Portuguese.

#158 AB Boxster on 06.10.17 at 2:10 pm

Your being under-employed is guess what? – statistically your fault, – Garth

———————————
That’s a little harsh don’t you think?

While I don’t have a lot of sympathy for those in the millennial generation that think that it makes sense to buy over-inflated real estate, and who think that having a tropical vacation each year, or a new smart phone every 2 years is a basic human right, there are certainly conditions in Canada and the world that make their working lives and living conditions more challenging.

This generation is one of the most educated, yet underemployed generations ever. Many of them listened to what they were told buy their parents, and which worked for the boomer generation and generations in the past.

Get a good education. Find a career that you like. Buy a house. Work for a company and retire with a pension.

Used to be good rules in once upon a time Canada and world.

But the rules have changes and changed rapidly.

Canadian workers now not only have to complete within Canada, but directly with workers from all over the world. This was something yours (Garth) and my generation did not have to deal with.

The good jobs are still filled.
The boomers will not and cannot retire because they either lost too much in the great 2008 financial fiasco, or their defined benefit pensions were converted to DC pensions, and they do not trust that the world of financial instruments is safe.
So how long does the next generation wait?

Canadian governments are more interested in virtue signalling about the environment and social justice issues than they are about good Canadian jobs. When the pathetic leader of this country talks about ‘diversity being our strength’ then this generation is royally screwed. That they continue to vote for the Liberal idiots is beyond me.

‘Screwed Canadian Millennial’s’ point about temporary foreign workers is well made. When business had a huge volume of workers from the Baby boomer generation they screamed at government to let capitalism and the free market take its course. But when they found that in booming economies (of which Alberta was once one) they could not find workers for their $10 an hour jobs, they screamed for cheap foreign labor to solve the problems.
So much for the free market.

Again this was not something that yours or my generation had to deal with.

The discussion on immigration is a difficult one.
While immigration to Canada certainly reflects a Canadian perspective of global responsibility and compassion, with all of the challenges facing the current generation, and especially the challenges of the future possible disruption due to AI, robotic automation etc, it is fair to question immigration levels.

Firstly, in terms of where the jobs for new immigrants will come from, since governments of the day are clueless about how real jobs are created, and secondly in terms of the ability of a country to pay the services, (health care, housing, welfare, etc) that many new immigrants require immediately, until they or their children can become taxpayers or until they can become self sufficient on their own.

Regardless of the issues, I have no doubt that the challenges being faced by the current generation are far greater than my generation had to face.

While I suspect that no one issue can be faulted, the combination of issues (globalization, boomer retirement, the financial meltdown, government ineptitude, temporary workers, immigration levels, ridiculous housing costs, disruptive technologies, etc, etc etc) are far more challenging than anything I had to face in my career.

How this generation reacts to these challenges will be a big test. If they are smart, they will recognize that the world is changing and change their expectations.

Rent your shelter, don’t buy.
Curtail the purchase of discretionary items. Yes, that means stop eating out 3 days a week. Stop the purchase of useless junk from China. No more Starbucks or Timmies. Prepare your own meals. Only buy items on Sale. Buy a 5 year old car vs a new one. Go camping rather than going to Rio. Make your cell phone last 6 years instead of 2.
Don’t subscribe to SeriousXM, or Spotify or any number of other monthly subscriptions. Cancel your cable subscription.

Frankly, in today’s Canada, your government does not really seem to give a crap about your situation except to offer the advice that ‘maybe you should get used to job churning’ or to ‘take some more unpaid apprenticeships’.

So go where the money is. If that means moving to the US or elsewhere because the jobs are there, or you are rewarded for your risk taking or ingenuity, then do so.

#159 Stephen Shaw on 06.10.17 at 3:20 pm

Is vettable immigration policy conceptually different from the lock on your front door? Both control entry through choice. Remove the lock (indeed the door), lose the option. Zero sum game. But is impediment immoral? I remind that Jesus Himself knocks on a door.

#160 human behavour on 06.10.17 at 3:20 pm

That’s funny. We made a 3% weighting adjustment, the first in two years. — Garth

……….

it’s ‘tactical’ movement, not market timing…:)

#161 chopstix on 06.10.17 at 3:34 pm

north shore (north vancouver) news…
”North Vancouver affordability dropping fast: report
Homes selling for more than our incomes can cover”

excerpt:
”While the overall affordability of residential properties sold in Vancouver worsened by just three per cent over the last year, affordability dropped by 38 per cent in the District of North Vancouver – the biggest drop among the 30 municipalities Vancity tracked over a one-year period ending on Feb, 28.
http://www.nsnews.com/news/north-vancouver-affordability-dropping-fast-report-1.20514146

#162 A Reply to #137 MF on 06.10.17 at 4:02 pm

“The supposed ‘recovery’ is the worst on record.”

The Great Depression (1929-1938) had arguably the worst recovery on record.

I realize that facts are anathema to you deplorables, but your use of false superlatives (just like your beloved Donny Trump) is annoying to the rest of us.

#163 TheDood on 06.10.17 at 4:22 pm

#153 joblo on 06.10.17 at 1:33 pm
#143 TheDood on 06.10.17 at 1:03 pm

Hey The Dood, could you share some of your SE Asia experience and destination potential?

Most of the previous posters on the topic where a little tough to believe.

Cheers

__________________________________

Sure thing….

Worked (O&G) and lived with wife and kids in both Thailand and Malaysia. Both are cheap (compared to Canada), have wonderful weather nearly all year round, great food, excellent medical, great social scene (lots of expats from all over the world) and generally low stress, great places to live. Was a working holiday for the most part. O&G crash, kids entering university, and wife wanting to live near kids decided the move back to Canada. I would move back to either in a second. Both are politically stable enough for me to consider moving back, I never saw or experienced anything in many years there that would prevent me from wanting to move back.

Oh, and paid in USD nearly twice what I make in Canada.

There are residence visa options available if you can prove certain levels of income (ie – if you have a decent portfolio you don’t need a job to move there).

If looking to move, go visit first as every place offers a different experience and feel. Vietnam is one place we never got to, heard lots of good things though, put it on your list.

#164 chopstix on 06.10.17 at 4:32 pm

vancouver condos continue to rise 2% on average each month in 2017..maybe vancouver is different (sadly)

…steve saretsky’s blog.

http://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver-condo-prices-increasing-2-month/

#165 Tony on 06.10.17 at 4:32 pm

Re: #119 TurnerNation on 06.10.17 at 10:03 am

The stock is more or less a pure play on the Chinese Yuan.

#166 Tony on 06.10.17 at 4:36 pm

Re: #116 Cto on 06.10.17 at 9:47 am

I guess Poloz never heard about how zero interest rates worked out for Japan.

#167 Ronaldo on 06.10.17 at 4:53 pm

#152 Careful on Trump Garth on 06.10.17 at 1:23 pm

If anything Trump is unpredictable.
—————————————————————
Exactly. And he holds the ‘Trump’ card. Never shows his hand. Why he’s a good negotiator. He feeds the media b.s. and they fall for it. Listening to the talking heads on CNN is laughable. Such a bunch of buffoons.

#168 Fed-up on 06.10.17 at 8:29 pm

There are 32.6 million of us, and immigration is running at 0.98% annually. Your being under-employed is – guess what? – statistically your fault, not that of families who arrived here starting from scratch. By the way, the greatest number of immigrants to Canada is from the Philippines, where the average income is $289 a month. Suck it up, snowflake. — Garth

You can’t trivialize a huge number like that each and every year by reducing it to a percentage of our current population. Hey I think I will take $600 million of Bill Gates’ fortune each year. It’s cool as it’s only .98% of what he’s worth. Suck it up Bill.

Without immigration our population would eventually reverse. Look at the economic mess Japan’s in, thanks in large part to its xenophobic attitudes and consequently aging population. Be careful what your prejudices lead you towards. — Garth

#169 Fed-up on 06.10.17 at 10:20 pm

#166 Fed-up on 06.10.17 at 8:29 pm

There are 32.6 million of us, and immigration is running at 0.98% annually. Your being under-employed is – guess what? – statistically your fault, not that of families who arrived here starting from scratch. By the way, the greatest number of immigrants to Canada is from the Philippines, where the average income is $289 a month. Suck it up, snowflake. — Garth

You can’t trivialize a huge number like that each and every year by reducing it to a percentage of our current population. Hey I think I will take $600 million of Bill Gates’ fortune each year. It’s cool as it’s only .98% of what he’s worth. Suck it up Bill.

Without immigration our population would eventually reverse. Look at the economic mess Japan’s in, thanks in large part to its xenophobic attitudes and consequently aging population. Be careful what your prejudices lead you towards. — Garth

———————————————————-

What is your problem exactly Garth? Why is it when anyone has an opinion that differs with yours when it comes to the amount of new Canadians that our handful on metropolitan areas can handle, do you immediately attack them and label them as prejudice and xenophobic?

All these people could be coming from the engineering arm of Italy or Germany for all I care. It’s impossible to have a meaningful debate with anyone who immediately and constantly pulls out the race card.

To be xenophobic is to be prejudiced against newcomers, which you are. Race is not part of it. — Garth

#170 Rgnar on 06.10.17 at 11:18 pm

Hey garth

How many invest should i buy an at what timerate?

#171 Steve Patterson on 06.11.17 at 10:25 am

A Pig with Lipstick

Garth you have been around long enough to remember that phrase.

Of course Canada added a bunch of jobs how many new immigrants have we let in over the last 7 years ? My response is the jobs data should be 10x this amount what are the rest of them all doing ?

Euro zone and US manufacturing is still dismal in context to 3 and 6 years ago and absolutely repugnant in the context of 10 years ago.

Corporate earnings are even more repugnant compared to 5 and 10 years ago contextually.

We live in a world were history does not matter but history has proven that ignoring history never turns out well.

#172 Ace Goodheart on 06.11.17 at 3:01 pm

#170 Steve Patterson

We’re all immigrants. Trace your family history back and you will see. Even the natives immigrated here.

I fully support immigration and I am proud to be a citizen of a country that welcomes newcomers from all corners of our planet.

#173 Ace Goodheart on 06.11.17 at 3:12 pm

Life is about finding the sweet spot. You see some peep walking down the street with the big smile you know this freak has found it. He doesn’t have a cause. Doesn’t need one. Angry at what?

Find that little space. You don’t need granite in your kitchen and your house doesn’t have to be in Rosedale. You don’t have to find a “group” (Apparently right now immigrants) to be angry at.

You don’t need to come up with 6k per month for 25 years to pay a mortgage.

Just look for that cool little spot where your happiness is.

It’s different for everyone….

#174 Livin Large on 06.11.17 at 5:09 pm

The allusion to Japan is soooo bang on.

Ethnic homogeneity and isolationism will destroy an economy almost as fast as losing a war will.

Germany became the powerhouse it is today by rebuilding with a clear rejection of nationalism (Marshal Plan helped too) and xenophobia.

#175 Asterix1 on 06.11.17 at 5:53 pm

Should Canada take in 1 immigrant a year or 1 million? The question should be asked without the fear or repercussions of being labelled a “xenophobe” or “racist”.

Those who use these words against others should be more careful as these are powerful words that often do not represent the true sentiments of those being attacked.

Our main concern should be to make sure that immigrants are integrating well into our society. Financially (job opportunities) and culturally (abiding to basic Canadian values).

Bring as many as you wish, just make sure that they are given a true chance to succeed.

#176 read on 06.11.17 at 9:53 pm

not to offend anybody, since the website is greaterfool, i hope nobody will get offended.
I am completely amazed by the overwhelmingly consensus that house price will go down further as i read comments, it seems greater fools are lining up in another queue.

#177 jack on 06.12.17 at 9:45 am

If the housing market drops, as predicted, and 25% of Canada’s GDP is tied to real estate – how can interest rates go up? There will be massive job losses in construction and equity and equity loans will disappear. This will ruin our economy and I see interest rates, and our dollar going even lower than they are now.