The big blow

Five weeks after the Ontario anti-bubble crusade commenced, here is the state of the once-frothy, frenzied, house-lusty GTA real estate market.

WARNING: What follows is based upon Toronto Real Estate statistics. Be advised it may contain misleading Frankenumbers, unhealthy assumptions, coarse calculations and adult situations. Reader discretion is advised.

Average price drop during May: – 6.2%
Total sales drop in GTA during May: – 12%
Drop in sales year/year: – 20.3%
Average price: $863,910
Average detached house one-month price drop: –$64,221
Decline year/year in detached sales: –26%
Average price reduction (all properties) over one month: –$56,881
One-month increase in new listings: 19.4%
Increase in active listings year/year: 43%

What do all these numbers mean? Well, the oxygen just left the room. Whether it’s a temporary gasp, or fatal, remains to be seen. But there’s no slapping lipstick on this gasbag. It’s got a serious leak.

Ron’s been a realtor since people knew who the BeeGees were. “I have never in all this time,” he told me, “seen a 6% price drop in a single month. Even back in the collapse after 1989 I cannot recall this kind of a number.”

So how serious is this, Ron?

“If you went into a house deal last month with a 5% down payment, then you are now under water. That serious.”

By the way, don’t look for most of the statistics above in the official realtor news release. Even Ron – who has access to detailed TREB numbers – says he had to call the director of research to find out what the actual drop was in average prices over a single 31-day period. “It was buried in the bottom corner of page 27,” he says.

Meanwhile , this was what the organization chose to trumpet – and which the repeaters in the MSM parroted (Global News: ” Toronto home prices rise to $863,910, an increase of 14.9%…“):

“Selling prices continued to increase strongly in May compared to the same month in 2016.  The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark price was up by 29 per cent year-over-year.  The average selling price for all home types combined for the TREB Market Area as a whole was up by 14.9 per cent to $863,910.  Year-over-year price increases were greater for condominium apartments compared to low-rise home types.  This likely reflects the fact that the low-rise market segments benefitted most from the increase in listings.”

Are prices still ahead compared to last May? You bet. The period between then and March of this year obviously constituted peak house – culminated by that 33% year/year romp in March which had experts everywhere warning of a market top and an imminent plop. Given the economic fundamentals – mediocre job growth, static incomes and record household debt (not to mention the fact half of all borrowers say they couldn’t withstand any rate hike) – it’s impossible for prices to keep advancing. Only speculation and house horniness have been keeping this Hindenburg aloft.

But now, down she comes. At least in May, an historic fissure opened. Despite all the misleading statements and hidden stats – dance and weave as they might – the Audi crowd cannot change history. We created a state in which crap houses cost $1.5 million, kids get eternally indebted, mortgage loans top $1.4 trillion, personal finances grow worse by the month and the tuliped masses flock to a single, leveraged asset at its most inflated moment in time.

This does not end well. But now you know that.

247 comments ↓

#1 Doug t on 06.05.17 at 11:44 am

POOCHED

#2 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 06.05.17 at 11:52 am

they dont make like this anymore

https://youtu.be/rsYbKIgLpQk

#3 april on 06.05.17 at 11:54 am

Now if only we could have the real numbers for Vancouver and LowerMainland.

#4 Pete on 06.05.17 at 11:54 am

I like your disclaimer, Garth, you sure have some sense of humour.

#5 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 12:00 pm

Wondering how MSM will spin this on 6pm news?
I’m saying they will blowing sunshine on this.

#6 The Truth on 06.05.17 at 12:01 pm

Our realtor, flat out told us, the jig is up in the GTA, the market is softening, low activity, sellers wanting quick closing dates with massive deposits to try and keep the buyer from backing out. His advice, let all these overpriced homes with their delusional owners sit with their properties languishing on the market through the hot summer months and then finally greedy sellers will get the message that market peak is clearly in the rear view mirror. It’s all down here from this point forward.

#7 Xbox Economist on 06.05.17 at 12:02 pm

Likely the price increases in March were a result of foreign capital being redirected into the GTA market following the introduction of the Vancouver foreign buyers tax. Now that Toronto has implemented the same, we should expect the GTA market to give back most of those gains by the end of the year. In fact, we can see properties priced near last year levels are still selling. It’s those priced at March levels which are sitting on the market.

Will prices keep falling after that? Who knows, but it’s unlikely without some other driver (rising unemployment, higher interest rates, tightening credit, etc.). Fundamentals this year don’t look that different than last. But hey, a correction is a correction so enjoy this moment.

#8 Jack on 06.05.17 at 12:04 pm

do you think GTA will bounce like vancouver has? I’m trying to get out and wondering if i should drop my price AGAIN or wait a few months for things to settle and hopefully creep up before the BIG DROP.

#9 Bill Morneau at Bilderberg on 06.05.17 at 12:07 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgmeR6tBjMI

Well we can see now this new finance minister is just as much of a criminal/traitor as the last one , hopefully he will go out the same way as the last finance minister
Should have asked him if he thinks it’s okay to fraud the Canadian tax payer out of billions a year through borrowing from private banks who in turn created the money out of thin air and if that’s a continued agenda at Bilderberg.

BTW who paid for his accommodation and trip, after all it was you and me !!!

Are there any people with a spine left in the Canadian Parliament to ask this traitor, whose interests was he representing there and in what capacity was he there??? For sure not the Canadian interests!!

Traitors and corrupt bastards everywhere and not a drop to drink …LOL all Trudeau’s cronies…

#10 Trekie2 on 06.05.17 at 12:07 pm

Three friends all sold houses in the past two months…found out today that my friend #2’s deal just fell through…buyer walked away stating they could not get financing. A month ago friend #1 had the buyer want to walk away…stating they would loose money…both friends are dealing with the lawyers now…

#11 Boom-Bust on 06.05.17 at 12:09 pm

Finally the buyers have woken up, they are angry and are no longer going to put up with all this overpriced crap coming onto the market. It’s either debt exhaustion or an awakening that the numbers just don’t make sense anymore to buy. If you have half a brain and can add and subtract, there are just no good properties to buy that make financial sense. With this inflated market, people have finally realized that renting is a far better option than getting stuck with a millstone of a house wrapped firmly around your neck. Sorry GTA sellers, your days of greed have ended.

#12 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.05.17 at 12:13 pm

Just a brief pause while the market catches it’s breath. There will not be any meaningful price change until interest rates rise significantly.

#13 Vancouver on 06.05.17 at 12:14 pm

The Vancouver condition is the dead cat bounce, the price correction will happen, ordinary people just can’t get access to that amount of money to purchase there anymore. Mom and Pop’s financial gift that they got through their reverse CHIP mortgage, just ain’t gonna cut it anymore.

#14 Meh on 06.05.17 at 12:15 pm

Lawnmower dude has the right attitude.. just keep on keeping on

#15 Extra Extra - Read All About It! on 06.05.17 at 12:20 pm

“Sales of existing homes across the Greater Toronto Area dropped a whopping 20.3 per cent in May from a year ago, while the average home price in the region fell about six” – Fiancial Post Article

#16 Phil on 06.05.17 at 12:24 pm

This is only one month data. Let’s not get too excited. And condos are +28% year-over-year. It’ll be a very long wait until we see “reasonable” prices. Prices that couples with a combined income of 120k are willing to pay.

Certainly, those who bought at the peak are panicking.

#17 Rob Fortyyy on 06.05.17 at 12:34 pm

Certainly buyers got shocked from that 33% March number and realized that the FOMO wasn’t worth it from the new April rules.

But still with interest rates at record lows and new construction supply fairly restricted what factors exist to stop the market from just reheating again in 6 months?

Also, what percentage of sellers really have to sell so bad that they’ll drop their prices?

Most sellers I know just wanted to list to take advantage of crazy high prices. They’re just as happy staying in their homes or renting them out since they bought a number of years ago and their carrying costs are not that high.

#18 Amanda Simms on 06.05.17 at 12:44 pm

Talking about interest rates, they keep falling as the 5, 10 and 30 year Canada yields are now 0.93%, 1.4%, 2.01%.

U.S. bond yields have also dropped alot 5, 10, 30 years to 1.73%, 2.17%, 2.83% are much lower since months following the big hype over the U.S. election back in November-2016.

Now with the U.K. general election, just like last year, BREXIT crashed interest rates pushing the 30 year Canada bond yield down to 1.55% at time low.

Interest rates are going down and once people say they will go up and up, they are wrong for 30 years now and counting.

#19 Howard on 06.05.17 at 12:52 pm

If this really is “the big one”, there is an added benefit : a really disastrous slide in housing prices and the Ontario Liberals could be reduced to 3rd place in the June 2018 election. Just desserts for the most corrupt, incompetent political party in Canada.

#20 Dups on 06.05.17 at 12:53 pm

It is time to aim for the bushes and jump.

#21 Ole Doberman P. on 06.05.17 at 12:59 pm

#8 Jack on 06.05.17 at 12:04 pm

do you think GTA will bounce like vancouver has? I’m trying to get out and wondering if i should drop my price AGAIN or wait a few months for things to settle and hopefully creep up before the BIG DROP.
——————————————————–
I’ll handle this one Garth.

Did Nortel and Bre-x come back? – Doberman

#22 Asterix1 on 06.05.17 at 1:09 pm

#12 FOUR FINGERS WATSON says “Just a brief pause while the market catches it’s breath. There will not be any meaningful price change until interest rates rise significantly”

You do not consider a -6.2% drop in prices in 30 days “meaningful”?

The market is not going to catch its breath! It just finished a marathon in the back of an ambulance. Its DOA.

#23 crdt on 06.05.17 at 1:10 pm

To quote “Supply m*therf****r” sorry for the crude language but I think it fits. Feel free to sensor otherwise…

#24 Pop Goes The World on 06.05.17 at 1:12 pm

Friends who are knee deep in mortgage debt for their slanty semi’s in the GTA are panicking. Sure there are a bunch of people who bought long ago that don’t need to sell, but there are plenty that bought not so long ago that are starting to rethink what the heck they were thinking. When the meme changes from”real estate always goes up” to “hmmm real estate is going down” the massive million dollar mortgage doesn’t seem like such a good idea anymore and these types rush for the exits.

#25 The Limited Sage on 06.05.17 at 1:13 pm

Canada’s Middle Class Is On The Brink Of Ruin…

https://thewalrus.ca/canadas-middle-class-is-on-the-brink-of-ruin/

In the race to parallel our livelihoods like those from West Egg, the East Egg inhabitants have instead lived their lives and built their homes on top of a valley of ash and debt.

#26 CJBob on 06.05.17 at 1:17 pm

#5 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 12:00 pm
Wondering how MSM will spin this on 6pm news?
I’m saying they will blowing sunshine on this.
___________________
It will be the exact opposite. Every site and station are chasing nothing but rating and what could be the start of house prices falling will be used to attract readers and listeners.

Financial Post: Toronto home sales drop most since recession as new rules put brakes on market

BNN: Toronto home sales plunge 20.3% in wake of Wynne government intervention

CP24: Home sales in GTA plunged last month by 20.3 per cent

#27 ArcticOutback on 06.05.17 at 1:19 pm

Longtime dedicated daily reader who appreciates this great blog and infrequent poster.

It is stunning to see this kind of drop without interest rates going up…just imagine what a series of modest rate increases from .5 to 1.0% over a few months would do to housing as the carrying costs of Variable Mortgages, Lines of Credit (used by speculators, flippers and the bank of mom and dad for kiddos) increase.

Garth down here in SW Ontario they reported a record month…how long before the reverb hits here?

#28 bdwy sktrn on 06.05.17 at 1:20 pm

do you think GTA will bounce like vancouver has?
———————-
if gta follows the yvr path, then condos and towns in 905 will be 30% higher a year from now.

van is hot (compared to everything but the hottest months ever)
but the fraser valley (far burbs) is white hot 1 yr after the ‘crash’

Van is not ‘hot.’ The sales mix has changed with moisters chasing cheap condos while detached sales fall significantly. Try some research. — Garth

#29 Howard on 06.05.17 at 1:20 pm

#18 Amanda Simms on 06.05.17 at 12:44 pm
Talking about interest rates, they keep falling as the 5, 10 and 30 year Canada yields are now 0.93%, 1.4%, 2.01%.

U.S. bond yields have also dropped alot 5, 10, 30 years to 1.73%, 2.17%, 2.83% are much lower since months following the big hype over the U.S. election back in November-2016.

Now with the U.K. general election, just like last year, BREXIT crashed interest rates pushing the 30 year Canada bond yield down to 1.55% at time low.

Interest rates are going down and once people say they will go up and up, they are wrong for 30 years now and counting.

————————–

Don’t look now, Amanda, but interest rates are rising in the US. Now double Canada’s rate with more hikes to come.

You want to bet that Canada will sit frozen forever while the US (slowly) normalizes? Go right ahead.

#30 bdwy sktrn on 06.05.17 at 1:23 pm

yvr is deserves a 2x multiple over the gta for quality of life so don’t expect it toronto to follow exactly;)

#31 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.05.17 at 1:26 pm

#22 Asterix1 on 06.05.17 at 1:09 pm
#12 FOUR FINGERS WATSON says “Just a brief pause while the market catches it’s breath. There will not be any meaningful price change until interest rates rise significantly”

You do not consider a -6.2% drop in prices in 30 days “meaningful”?

The market is not going to catch its breath! It just finished a marathon in the back of an ambulance. Its DOA.
…………………………………….
A price drop will be meaningful when the average family can afford the average home at say four times family earnings.

#32 Keep Calm and Mow On on 06.05.17 at 1:49 pm

Prairie fortitude.

#33 guru on 06.05.17 at 1:53 pm

6% overall in Toronto….. if you look at localized places in Brampton, Milton, Barrie it’s closer to 10%. By the Xmas, the drop will likely be in the 50-60% range for Brampton, Milton, Barrie, Guelph. etc. I’ve been working in the RE industry for a long time and I sense this could be the quickest price drops in the history of any bubble bursts. (The quicker it went up, the faster it drops down since the 30% run-up in late 2016/17 was based on pure irrational exuberance).

#34 The Smart $$ on 06.05.17 at 1:55 pm

Sorry to burst your bubble but – the smart money has already left the party. As an investor, I made hay while the sun was shining, sure I still own a little something, but it is free and clear and I’m using it, anything that was leveraged, I let go for an inflated price, to some hungry FOMO’s. The stupid money, those thinking their house in some no name suburb is going to fund their retirement or those using Brad Lamb investing math will now rush for the exits, as they realize this engine has no gas, but the writings been on the wall for sometime, and the pool of “greater ones” is getting shallow as many of them have already bought and are now regretting their motives. This is the beginning of the end and anyone saying otherwise is either mortgaged up to their eyeballs or a novice investor, but last time I checked in this game, ignorance will wipe you out. Checkmate GTA.

#35 Long-Time Lurker on 06.05.17 at 2:00 pm

I read about the lawnmower guy in the news (if that’s Calgary). He said, “I was keeping an eye on it.”

Everything I’m reading right now on Red China is saying that it’s in big trouble due to financial mismanagement. I’m wondering if it’ll look like Venezuela in five years.

#36 Gov Intervention Anytime on 06.05.17 at 2:01 pm

The same measures that were implemented to cool the market by the provincial government can easily be eliminated to start the fire again.

It would be wrong to think that the current government, let alone any new one, would not try to reignite the fire if prices softened too much.

Canadians love government intervention in the market – whether supporting CMHC to lend out loans to those not qualified or speculator taxes to cool the market and secure additional revenue.

#37 Mississauga Plop! on 06.05.17 at 2:04 pm

Nothing is moving in Mississauga. All those luxuary homes on and off of Mississauga Road are just sitting and sitting. All the 8’s in the price don’t seem to be fooling anyone, anymore. Beside who can really afford multimillion dollar homes? What kind of income do you need to support that kind of purchase. Sure my parents live in that area but they bought 25 years ago. This game is so over.

#38 Mike in Edm on 06.05.17 at 2:08 pm

We’ve cautiously started to look to buy in Edmonton (Well, Sherwood Park actually), and houses aren’t selling as fast as I would have thought. My pessimistic viewpoint is pretty bang on. Not a lot of great stuff for sale (unless you want to pay $550k+.

There are lots of decent homes that are being relisted ever 10-14 days for usually about $10k less. From what we’ve been told on a few of them is that the sellers bought another house already and are ‘desperate’ to sell soon. Not such a hot spring /early summer market here. Houses are definitely dropping in price. We’ll see how desperate they really are if they keep dropping their prices

I moved here 5 years ago and you couldn’t find anything that I’d live in for under $450k. Now it’s around 375k. One neighbor 2 houses down had their house listed when I moved here for $425k, it sold back then, recently was relisted for under $400k, sold quickly, then someone may have come in and slapped some lipstick on (I thought it was a grow op house) and listed it again for $378k, but it didn’t sell, so now they’re selling it via florescent “HOUSE FOR SALE” sign on their window lol. I have no idea what these last guys were thinking… or smoking.

#39 Guru's Right! on 06.05.17 at 2:11 pm

We’ve got sellers wanting almost immediate closings fearing people will back out once this news starts changing buyers’ perceptions. In addition, we’ve got buyers now wanting to back out because of “inspection clauses & finacing” when the real reason is their scared that the bottom is falling out. It will be very interesting but let me tell you, the bottom has fallen out of the Milton / Halton market, that’s for sure.

#40 Milton on 06.05.17 at 2:18 pm

In March, you couldn’t buy a town house in Milton for under 550,000, or it was difficult anyway, places got snapped up, but a few months later, the listings of towns have exploded and are moving now priced at 499,000, that’s a 50,000 drop in a matter of months and townhouses that are aggressively priced at around 5 are still sitting on the market, with very little interest, with the exception of a few wanna be speculators. This party ended in March.

#41 classic 89-90 on 06.05.17 at 2:33 pm

Well, those of you who are old enough to remember, this looks a lot like the 89-90 crash of the GTA market. The market peaked right at the beginning of 1990 until about March, by the end of that spring season, the bottom fell out. Realtors and highly leveraged people were all saying this is just a blip, but that blip, blew up! Prices started declining rapidly month by month and those who were highly leveraged got obliterated in a matter of months. Power of Sales galore as people in a matter of weeks were now under water. Deals were falling apart right left and centre. People walking away from their deposits that late spring. It was brutal, this seems to me like déjà vu. Fasten your seat belts this roller coaster is about to swoop down.

#42 bdwy sktrn on 06.05.17 at 2:35 pm

Van is not ‘hot.’ The sales mix has changed with moisters chasing cheap condos while detached sales fall significantly. Try some research. — Garth
—————–
my friend sold an east van beater (tear down) for 1.7m last tuesday, the sign was up for 4 days before the sticker.

EVERYTHING under the 2.5m level is still hot. Way , way above the 10yr avg.

Your friend. Wow. Good research there. — Garth

#43 bdwy sktrn on 06.05.17 at 2:39 pm

Don’t look now, Amanda, but interest rates are rising in the US.
————–
i think you’re holding the chart upside down.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=^TNX

#44 Even the House Humpers at the Globe Are Saying on 06.05.17 at 2:42 pm

“Toronto’s housing market feels chill from provincial measures”

Yeah baby, you know when the Globe and Mail is changing its headlines from “Lets Hump For Houses” to “This Housing Market has STD’s” we’ve heard the bubble pop!

#45 isuckless on 06.05.17 at 2:44 pm

Next RE bubble:
Ottawa

#46 I heart Milton on 06.05.17 at 2:50 pm

Hello, I am one of those novice speculators that bought a new and exciting Mattamy Home on specs, that’s on a fabulous 32 X 80 foot lot overlooking the lush Halton Municipal Dump site. I only paid just over a million for it. I have put down massive deposits already and the home will not be built until 2 years from now. They told me at the sold out sales centre that this was a safe bet as Milton is the fastest growing city in Canada and we have a lovely Walmart. Do you think I will be ok?

#47 Boombust on 06.05.17 at 2:51 pm

You’re right, Garth…Vancouver is not “hot”

For example, SFD sales throughout the area covered by the REBGV are OFF -42% for the period, Jan-May, 2017 over the same time last year.

Again, dollar sales volumes are also off 49% (YoY) in April.

#48 AK on 06.05.17 at 2:55 pm

#18 Amanda Simms on 06.05.17 at 12:44 pm
“Interest rates are going down and once people say they will go up and up, they are wrong for 30 years now and counting.”
——————————————————————–
95.8% chance that the Fed will be raising rates on June 14, 2017.

The new Fed Rate will be 1.25%…

#49 Myra Andrews on 06.05.17 at 2:57 pm

Do you think GTA’s falling real estate prices could spook Vancouver buyers? If prices continue the rapid decline and the news agencies publish stories about it will it scare first-time buyers and speculators in Vancouver?

#50 Rational Optimist on 06.05.17 at 3:00 pm

Oakville prices were down 12.9% from April to May.

#51 IHCTD9 on 06.05.17 at 3:02 pm

#16 Phil on 06.05.17 at 12:24 pm

It’ll be a very long wait until we see “reasonable” prices. Prices that couples with a combined income of 120k are willing to pay.

Certainly, those who bought at the peak are panicking.
________________________________

I’d love to know what “normal” will be. I’d probably bet normal in the GTA will still be too expensive on a value / metric basis.

20 years ago, a decent older 1200-1500sf house in Toronto was about 2.5X more expensive than a decent older home in my area. That would mean normal is 750K today. 750K seems doable but still needing higher incomes at 2.44%, but at 6.4 (what I started at) that’s 5 grand a month. Plus taxes and CMHC. That pretty much eats a 90K income after deductions. No 120K family income folks would make it to the end of a 25 year mortgage without experiencing severe shortfalls the minute rates climb .001%. Not what I’d call affordable.

IMHO, the GTA RE market could not be called affordable until SFD’s sink to 500K, but I don’t think they ever will. If they did, it would be because the SHTF and all the grid down Prepers are running in the streets armed to the teeth.

Something the late millennials and early Gen Z’s might want to start thinking about. The big city life outside a 500sf (goes to zero) box in the sky will eat a 6 figure income in its entirety for 2.5 decades straight. From here on out – permanently.

Is the GTA/YVR worth that much to you?

#52 Simplyput7 on 06.05.17 at 3:06 pm

Just under the menu tabs, in the News Releases section:

“The Toronto Real Estate Board no longer publishes a mid-month statistics news release. Sorry for any inconvenience.”

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news.htm

Hmm, I wonder why?

Found the full stats online, wanted to look for myself. The change in price was hard to find.

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/market_watch/2017/mw1705.pdf

#53 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 3:10 pm

Not as bad as you might think. Not enough inventory to cause a crash. see historical may inventory.

TREB MLS® Active Residential Listings at Month-End
Month/Year Active Listings at Month-End

May 2003 21,747
May 2004 22,484
May 2005 24,875
May 2006 26,220
May 2007 23,739
May 2008 27,267
May 2009 21,524
May 2010 25,414
May 2011 18,481
May 2012 20,462
May 2013 22,677
May 2014 20,679
May 2015 18,585
May 2016 12,931
May 2017 18,477

#54 Hum De Dum on 06.05.17 at 3:13 pm

#9 Bill Morneau at Bilderberg on 06.05.17 at 12:07 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgmeR6tBjMI

**************************

Dude, in 2006 the meeting was held in Ottawa. It leaked a few days later that the policy set in that meeting was “price of oil to be manipulated to $150 a barrel within the year.” Everyone who found out made a killing on insider trading. Myself included.

OPEN AND FREE MARKET???? BUAHAHAHAHA…yeah sure!!!

#55 Raj on 06.05.17 at 3:18 pm

Waiting to hear from “Happy Housing Crash” buddy :)

#56 crdt on 06.05.17 at 3:37 pm

Everyone here in BC is looking at the highest price paid as being a reflection of the strength of the market. Considering the massive drop in sales volume, and the extent that the economy is dependent on RE, the crash is firmly established. The revenue pipe is half the size, and the pressure is higher, but the volume is way down… Lots of RE agents are now either not getting fude, or half a serving…

#57 Alistair McLaughlin on 06.05.17 at 3:51 pm

And the calls for a homeowner bailout have started already.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/why-ottawa-should-bail-out-homebuyers-if-house-prices-tank/

I knew this demand was coming, but am absolutely shocked that the idea is getting MSM coverage so early in the cycle.

#58 Frank on 06.05.17 at 3:55 pm

A great comment about how boomers ruined the real estate market everyone should read: https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/6fcjyx/eli5_why_people_say_boomers_ruined_the_housing/

#59 TurnerNation on 06.05.17 at 4:04 pm

I love the smell of burnt equity in the morning?

DA of course will tell us Kelowna is different. 4 out of 5 h-lls angels would agree.

#60 Nonbuyer on 06.05.17 at 4:07 pm

A bailout is likely but it is still those that overleverage that will be precarious. Leverage doesn’t buy imported groceries, and renters still pay with income.

No bailout. Fantasy. — Garth

#61 Halifax on 06.05.17 at 4:16 pm

Hello,

What’s the deal with RE in Barrie? Is it still going up?

Thanks.

Curious in Halifax, NS

#62 TheDood on 06.05.17 at 4:27 pm

LOL! Response to some of the comments are priceless! Reading the comments section of this blog is now a “not to be missed” activity in our household and an endless source of entertainment.

We live in YVR and attend the odd open house here just to look at what’s on the market and for how much, and we usually walk away laughing. Yesterday was no different. Went to one in Langley for 1900sqft townhouse, 4bd, 3bth, reasonably nice but definitely not worth the 650K asking! Realtor says “There’s already an offer, and a BACKUP offer in case the first one falls through. You missed the boat on this one sorry……” Wife and I walk away laughing, and shaking our heads, these poor souls who’ve been convinced to part with so much money for a second rate townhouse!!!??? Besides low borrowing rate, market conditions have never been worse for buyers, and they’re STILL LINED UP TO BUY??!

My question is …..How come so many stupid people? Is it because in previous generations, stupid were breeding with other stupid………producing super stupid! That must be it!

#63 Wrk.dover on 06.05.17 at 4:51 pm

The place that sells beer bottle caps for my brew, doubled the quantity in a bag at triple the price. With the money I save there, I will put a down payment on one of these Toronto houses on sale to rent out.
Right?

#64 Re., nonbuyer on 06.05.17 at 5:03 pm

Govt will not cripple the folks that screwed up. They will tax the 1% , go after Corps (the docs , lawyers ..)

Self preservation

Don’t believe ? Just watch

#65 Howard on 06.05.17 at 5:05 pm

#57 Alistair McLaughlin on 06.05.17 at 3:51 pm
And the calls for a homeowner bailout have started already.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/why-ottawa-should-bail-out-homebuyers-if-house-prices-tank/

I knew this demand was coming, but am absolutely shocked that the idea is getting MSM coverage so early in the cycle.

————————

I’m going to puke.

This was my biggest fear, that people like me (debt-free, prudent) are going to be forced to bail out these deluded parasites who bought at the top of a bubble.

Not. Gonna. Happen. — Garth

#66 Your - in on 06.05.17 at 5:07 pm

So, the past few day’s I noticed some posting that Barrie home sales have come to a grinding halt!! I get a laugh out of those comments and now I’m starting to believe there are some who post ‘bs’ reports to stir up some emotions on this blog. Sales in the southern part of Barrie are still moving at a brisk pace. I have yet to see a for sale sign hang longer than a week before they slap a sold over it. Though I doubt there are any bidding wars – homes are still moving.

And a final note – I’m bewildered that a few take pleasure in the possible financial demise of those who bought and now may spend years or even decades trying to crawl out of this financial mess. Wish hard enough – and those events may land nicely in your lap as well!!

#67 Stan Broock on 06.05.17 at 5:15 pm

#18 Amanda Simms on 06.05.17 at 12:44 pm
Talking about interest rates, they keep falling as the 5, 10 and 30 year Canada yields are now 0.93%, 1.4%, 2.01%.

U.S. bond yields have also dropped alot 5, 10, 30 years to 1.73%, 2.17%, 2.83% are much lower since months following the big hype over the U.S. election back in November-2016.

Now with the U.K. general election, just like last year, BREXIT crashed interest rates pushing the 30 year Canada bond yield down to 1.55% at time low.

Interest rates are going down and once people say they will go up and up, they are wrong for 30 years now and counting.

———————-

It is your pension fund buying these ‘bonds’.
2 % on 30 years with melting CAD with official inflation of 2 % and real inflation of 5-6?

Sure, where do I sign… NOT?

I won’t touch the smelly Poloz’s peso or any derivative of it (aka bonds) with a barge pole.

#68 Asterix1 on 06.05.17 at 5:16 pm

#62, you asked: “How come so many stupid people? Is it because in previous generations, stupid were breeding with other stupid………producing super stupid! That must be it!”

Great question! Please watch this 2min video to answer your question. Its from the movie Idiocracy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icmRCixQrx8

#69 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 06.05.17 at 5:16 pm

In the financial world it is called:

“Stairs up, elevator down”

The drop is always quicker than the move up. The faster the move up, the quicker the fall down. What the question is now:

Q. Are we looking at a V, L or U shaped future recovery?

#70 Stan Broock on 06.05.17 at 5:20 pm

The system will break once people pull their heads out from their butts, realize that they are getting scammed with low interest rates but raging inflation and move away from any form of saving/GIC/bonds etc. crap related to or derivative of Poloz’s ‘currency’.

Then 6-10 % rates won’t save the CAD.
Picture that,

#71 Dee on 06.05.17 at 5:28 pm

Not as bad as you might think. Not enough inventory to cause a crash. see historical may inventory.

TREB MLS® Active Residential Listings at Month-End
Month/Year Active Listings at Month-End

May 2003 21,747
May 2004 22,484
May 2005 24,875
May 2006 26,220
May 2007 23,739
May 2008 27,267
May 2009 21,524
May 2010 25,414
May 2011 18,481
May 2012 20,462
May 2013 22,677
May 2014 20,679
May 2015 18,585
May 2016 12,931
May 2017 18,477

———————

Can anyone else confirm these numbers? If they are true, we are still far off. Not enough listings

They are copied and pasted from today’s TREB media release. Exactly what the realtors wish you to believe – that is why they were included (an unusual move). — Garth

#72 Lance on 06.05.17 at 5:28 pm

I been rentin since 1969…..house prices go up go down…my rent is still cheap …I don’t care…now gasoline used to be 25cents a gallon…look now 4.50$ a gallon…wow we!

#73 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.05.17 at 5:29 pm

It is a global real estate market now. People around the world know about our low interest rates, easy qualifying for mortgages, tax free capital gains, and double digit price appreciation. They also know about 1% bond yields and low stock market returns. It’s a no brainer for people with a bit of smarts and a bit of money. Average Canadian families are priced out now and probably forever. This real estate market is not gonna crash or melt until real changes are made to the system.

#74 dakkie on 06.05.17 at 5:30 pm

Toronto’s Housing Bubble Pops. “The Frenzy is Over – It’s Over”

http://investmentwatchblog.com/torontos-housing-bubble-pops-the-frenzy-is-over-its-over/

#75 sorry Howard on 06.05.17 at 5:30 pm

I’m going to puke.

This was my biggest fear, that people like me (debt-free, prudent) are going to be forced to bail out these deluded parasites who bought at the top of a bubble.

……….

you wont ‘bail them out’, but govt will come after the savers and the rich ….desperately seeking to fill the massive revenue drop. That and marijuana taxation should make them happy campers, or rather Make Canada Great Again….

#76 Stan Broock on 06.05.17 at 5:35 pm

#65 Howard on 06.05.17 at 5:05 pm
#57 Alistair McLaughlin on 06.05.17 at 3:51 pm
And the calls for a homeowner bailout have started already.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/why-ottawa-should-bail-out-homebuyers-if-house-prices-tank/

I knew this demand was coming, but am absolutely shocked that the idea is getting MSM coverage so early in the cycle.

————————

I’m going to puke.

This was my biggest fear, that people like me (debt-free, prudent) are going to be forced to bail out these deluded parasites who bought at the top of a bubble.

Not. Gonna. Happen. — Garth

———————————-
My humble opinion is that ‘it/the bailout’ will happen and the form will be NIRP and total destruction of the CAD.

Howard, I would move your money away from CAD and local stock market except some global resource/not oil patch companies. Like yesterday.

Buy Europe, Chine, US.

This country’s ‘economy’ is DOA/finished.

#77 Stan Broock on 06.05.17 at 5:38 pm

#75 sorry Howard on 06.05.17 at 5:30 pm
I’m going to puke.

This was my biggest fear, that people like me (debt-free, prudent) are going to be forced to bail out these deluded parasites who bought at the top of a bubble.

……….

you wont ‘bail them out’, but govt will come after the savers and the rich ….desperately seeking to fill the massive revenue drop. That and marijuana taxation should make them happy campers, or rather Make Canada Great Again….

———————————
This will be the initial step. Then they will initiate our own form of QA at the end of which CAD will be worth .35 USD and 0.30 Euro.

Cauliflower at $ 12, bread at $ 10, apples at $ 10 per kilo and and coffee at 4.50?
Absolutely. In 3-5 years.

#78 Lulu on 06.05.17 at 5:40 pm

This is not a blip, this is the BEEP!! Heading a head on collision, Beep Beep Beep Beep.

This is going to be very very long drawn melt down, no sellers are willing to slash a big cut of their over asking price ( even those if they sell NOW, still make a killing).but human nature is just too greedy and jealous of what others got the top dollars and not any in the table. That’s got you BURN badly in the end.

We are gonna see every week 10k reduction very very soon just like the 89 crash when speckers try to get out. This is going to be EPIC!!!

#79 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.05.17 at 5:41 pm

Did Nortel and Bre-x come back? – Doberman
———————————————————
You got it.
Remember, the ones with all the FOMO who rushed into this bubble without a moments hesitation and no self discipline are the same ones who now have ‘Fear Of Being Trapped’ and will rush to the exits in an attempt to salvage anything they can once they see the numbers. They haven’t learned anything; the ‘in’ thing to do now is dump-and-run.

By the way, why would anyone making good money buy an AUDI? If you’re trying to emulate West Egg, ‘FAIL’ they all drove Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Horch, Bugatti.

#80 Drake Scottsdale on 06.05.17 at 5:42 pm

Interest rates will fall alot more once we get back into a recession over the next 18 to 24 months.

Remember the 1.10% 10 year U.S. treasury bond yield a few years back. Canada had a 1% or lower 10 year bond rate too a few years back.

Wait until stock markets and housing fall hard maybe not as bad as 2007 but at least a deep recession like the early 2000’s.

The bank rate is one half of one per cent. The fat is gone already. — Garth

#81 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.05.17 at 5:50 pm

Dude, in 2006 the meeting was held in Ottawa. It leaked a few days later that the policy set in that meeting was “price of oil to be manipulated to $150 a barrel within the year.” Everyone who found out made a killing on insider trading.
—————————————————–
Lindsey Williams told the whole world. Few listened. I would have but I had no money.

#82 Mark on 06.05.17 at 5:51 pm

“My humble opinion is that ‘it/the bailout’ will happen and the form will be NIRP and total destruction of the CAD.”

Gotta disagree highly here. As housing prices decline, the CAD$ becomes more valuable. Consumers will have very few CAD$ to spend (as they’re paying back debt), hence CAD$ will be scarce. So the value of CAD$ will rise significantly as deflation takes hold. NIRP hasn’t proven to be too successful around the world, so it probably won’t be all that successful in Canada either. Success being defined as propping up asset prices post-peak.

If we look back to the experience of the US real estate collapse, the US dollar shot sky-high because of such. No reason why the same won’t replicate itself in Canada. Throw in some global macro trends towards gold, and the Canadian dollar could eventually hit $1.5USD / CAD$, ie: $1 CAD exchangeable into a buck and a half USD$. A complete inversion of the 63 cent USD$ seen in the early 2000s.

#83 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.05.17 at 5:55 pm

A bailout is likely but it is still those that overleverage that will be precarious. Leverage doesn’t buy imported groceries, and renters still pay with income.
— No bailout. Fantasy. — Garth
—————————————————-
The only bailout/bail-in will be of the banks. Don’t you realize what happened in 2008. It was the banks that got bailed-out of their subprime fiasco, not those homeowners with underwater mortgages. The banks got their money back and were still allowed to forclose on peoples houses. The bailout should have gone to the burdened homeowner to pay his mortgage; that would have saved the banks as well as the middle class. But since the overall plan is to destroy the middle class that sort of bailout wasn’t about to happen.

#84 Ronaldo on 06.05.17 at 5:57 pm

#8 Jack on 06.05.17 at 12:04 pm

do you think GTA will bounce like vancouver has? I’m trying to get out and wondering if i should drop my price AGAIN or wait a few months for things to settle and hopefully creep up before the BIG DROP.
————————————————————-
You will need to talk to someone with a better crystal ball than we have. Good luck.

#85 crdt on 06.05.17 at 6:04 pm

#66 Your – in on 06.05.17 at 5:07 pm
“And a final note – I’m bewildered that a few take pleasure in the possible financial demise of those who bought and now may spend years or even decades trying to crawl out of this financial mess. Wish hard enough – and those events may land nicely in your lap as well!!”

Are you really???

Magical thinking is a term used in anthropology and psychology, denoting the fallacious attribution of causal relationships between actions and events, with subtle differences in meaning between the two fields.

#86 Ronaldo on 06.05.17 at 6:05 pm

#46 I heart Milton on 06.05.17 at 2:50 pm

They told me at the sold out sales centre that this was a safe bet as Milton is the fastest growing city in Canada and we have a lovely Walmart. Do you think I will be ok?
——————————————————————
Now that is funny. Needed a laugh.

#87 Ronaldo on 06.05.17 at 6:07 pm

#49 Myra Andrews on 06.05.17 at 2:57 pm

Do you think GTA’s falling real estate prices could spook Vancouver buyers? If prices continue the rapid decline and the news agencies publish stories about it will it scare first-time buyers and speculators in Vancouver?
————————————————————–
Good luck trying to spook a Greater Fool. From some of the comments on this blog, there appears to be no shortage of them at the moment.

#88 jess on 06.05.17 at 6:09 pm

death watch sites

Implode-O-Meter measures lenders’ troubles

see By LOUISE STORYJULY 8, 2008

no one wanted to be on this list!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/08/business/worldbusiness/08iht-lend.4.14335088.html

Aaron Krowne, a former researcher at Emory University in Atlanta. A computer scientist and mathematician, Krowne started the site in 2007,

#89 Shawn on 06.05.17 at 6:11 pm

A 40% decline in GTA home prices would be healthy for the economy longer term. Ontario needs a housing correction in order to bring markets back into balance.

#90 jess on 06.05.17 at 6:11 pm

just kidding?

Harvard rescinds admission offer to 10 students over obscene Facebook group
Posts included joking about sexual assault, child abuse and the Holocaust
Thomson Reuters Posted: Jun 05, 2017 1:05 PM ET Last Updated: Jun 05, 2017 1:08 PM ET
====
Mathis Kern is a partner at the Geneva-based law firm Byrne-Sutton Bollen Kern. He explains that Article 173 of the Swiss Criminal Codeexternal link forbids making untrue statements about a person that accuse them of dishonourable behaviour, and disseminating such untrue statements made by others

Man convicted over Facebook ‘likes’ in defamation case
​​​​​​​In a landmark trial, a Swiss man has received a two-year suspended sentence and a CHF4,000 ($4,000) fine in a defamation case …@swiss info

“Poe’s Law” – a shield for trolls?
https://www.wired.com/2017/06/poes-law-troll-cultures-central-rule/
Apr 20, 2017 – On the far-right, political memes have evolved from mere trolling to something that looks a lot more like military propaganda

#91 Shawn on 06.05.17 at 6:15 pm

The GTA housing market needs to be cleansed in the waters of lake minnetonka.

#92 Howard on 06.05.17 at 6:15 pm

#76 Stan Broock on 06.05.17 at 5:35 pm

———————————-
My humble opinion is that ‘it/the bailout’ will happen and the form will be NIRP and total destruction of the CAD.

Howard, I would move your money away from CAD and local stock market except some global resource/not oil patch companies. Like yesterday.

Buy Europe, Chine, US.

This country’s ‘economy’ is DOA/finished.

———————————-

I currently live in Europe and am paid in Euros. Would like to eventually move back to Canada but given that the country has become so hostile to my kind (prudent savers), why bother? Canada is plagued by chronically low salaries, high prices for everything, oppressive taxation but without the cheap/free post-secondary education and 6-week holidays that one finds in most European countries.

It does seem sometimes that Canada adopted the worst of both the US and Euro models without many (or any) of the good parts of either one.

#93 Brian Ripley on 06.05.17 at 6:19 pm

“… keeping this Hindenburg aloft.” Garth

I have my Toronto Charts and Compare Toronto to Vancouver Housing Charts up now:

http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

One more observation with respect to the Toronto Housing market is that the plot of total sales on the price chart is behaving exactly as it should. It’s dropping quickly as the seasonal plot shows. There could be a small bump up in price in the next month or two, but after that, sales will plunge into the dark of winter. The season is basically over for this year especially for the weak hands who follow Garth’s blog and understand the significance of these trend changes.

I suspect there are still quite a few deep pockets out there who don’t care about the value of money but want that trophy listing in their book.

#94 ole Doberman on 06.05.17 at 6:19 pm

Gartho do you have anything else coming out today around 4ish?

#95 TrumpForTheAges on 06.05.17 at 6:19 pm

The data is manipulated if it is housing but never would economic data be manipulated? The hypocrisy on this blog is astounding. Home sales have dwindled and price has slightly retraced which is a good thing as the appreciation in value was not healthy. A few more months like that and if it was the stock market we would call it a healthy pullback. The key will be whether we return to a normalized interest rate environment. The bond market says no.

Let’s keep a perspective. It wasn’t that long ago that this blog trumpeted that the real estate correction would spiral Canada into a recession while our big brother in the south was establishing America as great again. So far in 2017 Canada growth is outstripping that of the US by a wide margin and with the decline of the Loonie we continue to see foreign investment. Even the most ardent bloggers here have to admit the Vancouver market hasn’t plummeted the way it was being heralded here.

#96 Clamping on 06.05.17 at 6:38 pm

Clamping to every little bear news to feel vindicated?

In jan’16 the avg TO price was $630,193 (**)
In apr’17 the avg TO price was $919,614 (**)
In may’17 the avg TO price was $863,910 (**)

Yep, going lower.
And will probably continue to go lower for a bit of time.
I doubt it will ever go below jan’16 $630K again.
Anyone who got into the market before then will be fine, I’m sure.

(**) Over all housing types, so may be influenced by changing sales-mix.

#97 InvestorsFriend on 06.05.17 at 6:43 pm

Banks lend Money Created from Thin Air?

Bill Morneau dude at 9 said:

Should have asked him if he thinks it’s okay to fraud the Canadian tax payer out of billions a year through borrowing from private banks who in turn created the money out of thin air and if that’s a continued agenda at Bilderberg.

*******************************************
You have been seriously misled by doomer sites quoting half truths and arriving at completely false conclusions.

Banks have to compete for and pay interest on deposits (even if they are sorta created from thin air. If your theory is true how do you explain Home Capital running into such trouble?

It will be difficult to succeed financially if you continue to believe the financial system is crooked like that.

But it’s a free country, believe what you want to, most people do so.

#98 THERE IS NO YVR BOUNCE on 06.05.17 at 6:43 pm

Go here to read Page 8 of the REBGV May 2017 Report (PDF) and view the Right Hand Column and the bottom right numbers – sales year over year, almost ALL NEGATIVE for all 15 sales regions:

http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV-Stats-Package-May-2017.pdf

In Vancouver alone, Detached $ sales 50% from a year ago and condos below last year as well, NO BOUNCE (scroll to the pretty green column charts):

http://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver-buyers-600-million-less-on-real-estate/

There is NO BOUNCE IN YVR RE, it is MSM Realtor fueled BS that the RE Cult there wants to hear but is too lazy to read the details or research the truth.

#99 Timmy on 06.05.17 at 6:45 pm

Garth,
How do you explain the Vancouver market? Even though things have slowed it doesn’t appear that prices are anywhere near affordable.

#100 InvestorsFriend on 06.05.17 at 6:52 pm

Interest Rate Claims

#80 Drake Scottsdale on 06.05.17 at 5:42 pm said and claimed:

Interest rates will fall a lot more once we get back into a recession over the next 18 to 24 months.

Remember the 1.10% 10 year U.S. treasury bond yield a few years back. Canada had a 1% or lower 10 year bond rate too a few years back.

****************************************
Which month was that? For U.S. you can look it up here:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

For Canada it is on the bank of Canada site.

Did it really get as low as you say?

In any case U.S. ten year now at 2.2%. If really convinced buy long bonds for capital gains.

#101 Howdy Doody on 06.05.17 at 7:01 pm

@ # 53 SmMan
@ #71 Dee

Can you not do simple math ?

The price of the homes in 2017 are up to 3 times (or more) as much as in 2003 , so the numbers are not an “apples to apples” comparison.

Therefore the actual (nominal) amounts that need to be financed to purchase the same NUMBER of homes are much higher.

Incomes have not kept up, but expenses have markedly increased.

Ergo, you need a lot more dollar volume (and / or buyers) to sustain current pricing than in the past.
With > 70 % “ownership” rates and tighter credit, please tell me from where the necessary buying pressure (dollar volume) will come from?

Not the same market dynamics nor math as in those past years.

Looks like trouble.

#102 Dan.t on 06.05.17 at 7:04 pm

I called it a year or so ago… bailouts coming for all the fools who guzzled the coolaid, and are in debt out their arse because, well, that’s just what people do in Canada.

Buy super expensive crap on credit, then take out home equity loan, max out credit cards and live like a big wheel… all with no saving and no real money…but they will get bailed out.

If you were prudent, invested wisely, saved, sucker. Watch it happen. That Maclean article made me want to puke…basically, if prices crash government should bail out homeowners??? Are you serious? The author probably just bought a 1.2mil Piece of S**t 40yesr old semi , 90 min commute, on the outskirts of no where and now he wants to rally every other home owner who bought overpriced junk so he doesn’t go down alone..

That’s how it works in Canada- herd mentality all the way. Good thing it’s different in YVR and BC!

It’s so bad now that at first sigh of downturn, everyone is looking to be saved for dumb choices.

#103 S.Bby on 06.05.17 at 7:09 pm

Anecdotally: wife knows of someone at the kids school trying to sell and they’ve had some offers but all have fallen through due to the buyers not able to secure financing. BUT multi-million dollar house just sold down our street so there are still some legs (maybe short legs) on the South Burnaby market. Most is not selling though.

#104 I'm not Poloz on 06.05.17 at 7:11 pm

#77 Stan Broock on 06.05.17 at 5:38 pm
This will be the initial step. Then they will initiate our own form of QA at the end of which CAD will be worth .35 USD and 0.30 Euro.

Cauliflower at $ 12, bread at $ 10, apples at $ 10 per kilo and and coffee at 4.50?
Absolutely. In 3-5 years.

———————————————————-

Hey! You terk my job! I was supposed to predict a 35 cent Loonie under “Boost Exports” Poloz.

#105 Dan.t on 06.05.17 at 7:13 pm

Do people actually believe the Province, the Sun and CBC or any other Canadian news outlet? No wonder the rebel and other independent news channels are growing so fast.

It’s been obvious for about 12 years that real estate sponsored news was being pushed 24/7 to brainwash the herd… look how well it worked.

Who buys newspapers? How do u think they generate revenue? I wish I could see how much the real estate boards pay to local papers.

News in Canada is for sale. That’s actually pretty dangerous but it’s true. Take everything with a grain of salt.

#106 Muttley O'Toole on 06.05.17 at 7:15 pm

” . . .and the tuliped masses flock to. . .”

GT you are a wordsmith extraordinaire – even though you live another 50 years I doubt (in my mind) you will reach this peak again. Just like the housing bubble when it breaks.

#107 CL on 06.05.17 at 7:15 pm

#65 Howard.

I agree with you 100% and also want to vomit at the thought. If a bail out of these geniuses who gorged on debt happened I’d pack up and leave this country I used to love.

The Macleans article is flawed in many ways. The quoted book writers are also wrong in their theories (but hey, theyre selling a book) and I suggest they learn accounting and the “mark to market” rule that was re-implemented in 07 then removed March of 09….again…after they realized what a mistake it was and why it caused the crash.

#108 I'm not Poloz on 06.05.17 at 7:16 pm

My response to the Toronto real estate statistics is “HAHA!”….However, the scary truth is that the statistics and housing crash will give a reason for that maniac Poloz to cut interest rates or introduce Quantitative Easing (even from his digestive system), to “boost the economy and boost exports for Canada”.
Meanwhile, the US FED is poised to raise interest bank overnights Federal Funds rate by 0.25% in the coming days. This alone results in a lower Loonie.

#109 Underwriting on 06.05.17 at 7:18 pm

 Your – in on 06.05.17 at 5:07 pm

So, the past few day’s I noticed some posting that Barrie home sales have come to a grinding halt!! I get a laugh out of those comments and now I’m starting to believe there are some who post ‘bs’ reports to stir up some emotions on this blog. Sales in the southern part of Barrie are still moving at a brisk pace. I have yet to see a for sale sign hang longer than a week before they slap a sold over it. Though I doubt there are any bidding wars – homes are still moving.

And a final note – I’m bewildered that a few take pleasure in the possible financial demise of those who bought and now may spend years or even decades trying to crawl out of this financial mess. Wish hard enough – and those events may land nicely in your lap as well!!

————-
I’m in the north part of Barrie and there most certainly is a change in the market. 6 different homes for sale within a few blocks of me have been sitting for weeks. Infact, the open house next door this weekend had literally one couple come through it on its first weekend on the market. And it is priced lower than most detached in the area. In March, another house on the street had a line up out the door and a parking lot of luxury vehicles outside their open house.
It’s changed.
No one wants to see other’s losing their shirts, but it’s clear some buyers have put more research into buying vacuum cleaners than into purchasing a home which has doubled in “value” in the past 3 years.

#110 S.Bby on 06.05.17 at 7:35 pm

#30 bdwy sktrn

Are you drunk?

#111 jess on 06.05.17 at 7:42 pm

hum….

Russian hacking may have penetrated further into U.S. voting systems than was previously understood

Top-Secret NSA Report Details Russian Hacking Effort Days Before 2016 Election
Matthew Cole, Richard Esposito, Sam Biddle, Ryan Grim

June 5 2017, 3:44 p.m

Russian military intelligence executed a cyberattack on at least one U.S. voting software supplier and sent spear-phishing emails to more than 100 local election officials just days before last November’s presidential election, according to a highly classified intelligence report obtained by The Intercept.
https://theintercept.com/2017/06/05/top-secret-nsa-report-details-russian-hacking-effort-days-before-2016-election/

A Federal Government Contractor Has Been Charged With Leaking To The Intercept

The Department of Justice alleges that Reality Leigh Winner, 25, removed classified material from a government facility and mailed it to an online news outlet.
Originally posted on June 5, 2017, at 5:54 p.m.

#112 Hiding On the Backstreets on 06.05.17 at 7:45 pm

#17 Rob Fortyyy on 06.05.17 at 12:34 pm

Certainly buyers got shocked from that 33% March number and realized that the FOMO wasn’t worth it from the new April rules.

But still with interest rates at record lows and new construction supply fairly restricted what factors exist to stop the market from just reheating again in 6 months?

Also, what percentage of sellers really have to sell so bad that they’ll drop their prices?

Most sellers I know just wanted to list to take advantage of crazy high prices. They’re just as happy staying in their homes or renting them out since they bought a number of years ago and their carrying costs are not that high.

This is me. I bought 10 years ago in Olde Stoney Creek, interest rate of 5+% (remember that?). Then the Great Financial crisis hit. I thought I’d be stuck with an overpriced home that I didn’t really want, but my girlfriend seemed to like.
But prices bounced back, got stupid here in Hamilton for a while this spring, I switched out girlfriends (a few times) and kept the house. Took me years to get used to it but now I’m sort of comfortable. All my stuff’s here.

My current g-friend almost had me selling and moving in with her, then put it on hold (family reasons, not because I let my extraordinarily fine, chiseled physique turn to mush), we still plan to do it in the near future. So everybody on here – easy on the gleeful laughter and ‘I told you so’ about downhill houses. I may need to sell this year.

I only ask that the all-powerful, all-seeing, all-knowing, chiseled-abbed benevolent blog host (enough sucking up?) make sure that the big crash holds off until I get my once-in-a-lifetime-ridiculous-offer winfall.

GT has super powers, doesn’t he? I’ll send pics of my cat in thanks.

#113 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 06.05.17 at 7:46 pm

Sellers are on the brink of bankruptcy. Finances are so bad (due to wide spread mortgage fraud) that vested interests already are on their desperate knees begging for a bailout in the MSM. Buyers in Canada are some of the most financially clueless people in the world. If they could think for themselves they would know to stop buying and wait for the foreclosures. Its that simple as RE market in GTA is a house of cards. In any case fraudulent mortgages are now harder to get and buyers are becoming fewer and fewer. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#114 bellend on 06.05.17 at 7:47 pm

and still no YVRite FHB assistance?… thats not fair!!

#115 Ronaldo on 06.05.17 at 7:47 pm

#95 TrumpForTheAges

So far in 2017 Canada growth is outstripping that of the US by a wide margin and with the decline of the Loonie we continue to see foreign investment.
—————————————————————-
And I’m willing to bet that the debt levels have risen just as dramatically which does not bode well for the economy in the future with everyone tapped out. An economy based on people borrowing and going massively into debt is hardly anything to cheer about but I guess it’s good news for the politicians. Get ready for the next recession. It’s just around the corner.

#116 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 7:48 pm

I’m calling 15000 listings in Aug.

Folks are listing for the million dollar pay day. I’ve noticed the daily listings drop dramaticly last 5 days.
I’m also calling on wynee to drop the fair housing rules and foren buyer tax. Sorry rent controls and assignment rules stay.

When sellers don’t get the millions they thought they could get. Invetory will dry up.

In the mean time sellers stuck with a few properties, bought before they sold. They will be vulchable, problem is how do you find them.

#117 A Reply to #50 Rational Optimist on 06.05.17 at 7:53 pm

I presume that you’ve read Matt Ridley’s book, “The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves.” It’s a mellifluous and imaginative page-turner.

#118 Andrew Woburn on 06.05.17 at 8:01 pm

The Home Capital effect: Mortgage rates spike for riskier borrowers – The Globe and Mail

“Some smaller alternative lenders are seeing application volumes up more than 100 per cent. And when any opportunistic lender gets a flood of business, what does it do?

Two things.

For one, it raises prices. That’s exactly what’s happening right now in Canada’s non-prime mortgage market. Lenders are jacking up the price of money by demanding higher interest rates.

Since Home Capital’s funding woes started, “rates on [non-prime] mortgages have increased between 50 and 125 basis points, based on whether it’s a purchase or refinance,” said Ron Butler, a broker at Butler Mortgage. (One basis point equals 1/100th of a percentage point.)

That’s almost $1,000 to $2,500 more interest over 12 months on the average $201,000 Canadian mortgage.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/the-home-capital-effect-mortgage-rates-spike-for-riskier-borrowers/article35199536/

#119 Entrepreneur on 06.05.17 at 8:02 pm

Totally agree #89 Shawn on GTA needed a correction for a healthy economy. But for some reason Vancouver didn’t need a correction for a healthy economy? A correction should have happened here years ago before families had to move away and working people live in their vehicle.

Or is it something like B.C. is over there not Ottawa’s problem. I am feeling more a disconnect from my own country. People live in this province and should not be ignored. Not just pipelines, tankers, fish farms, etc.

#120 Barrie Girl on 06.05.17 at 8:04 pm

#66 Your – in on 06.05.17 at 5:07 pm

So, the past few day’s I noticed some posting that Barrie home sales have come to a grinding halt!! I get a laugh out of those comments and now I’m starting to believe there are some who post ‘bs’ reports to stir up some emotions on this blog. Sales in the southern part of Barrie are still moving at a brisk pace. I have yet to see a for sale sign hang longer than a week before they slap a sold over it. Though I doubt there are any bidding wars – homes are still moving.

————-

Sorry, but just not seeing that in my area. I live in a popular South West Barrie neighbourhood, and not much is moving here. Houses that would have quickly sold a month or two ago have been sitting for weeks now – even some that have relisted at reduced prices.
It’s really is like someone flipped a switch.

#121 Unscientific on 06.05.17 at 8:12 pm

MLS listings here in Cookiecutterville have averaged in the mid fifties for the past year. The Market was hot and prices have skyrocketed. Current listings: 180

#122 I thinks I know something on 06.05.17 at 8:20 pm

Nothing rises forever without taking a pause. So what if house prices backtrack for a little while. Five years from now TO RE will be much higher than they are now. The politicos will make sure of that. Wait and see what happens when interest rates go negative.

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.05.17 at 8:22 pm

I swear to God I could see pizza boxes in that tornado vortex !
Might explain why I havent received my medium pepperoni with extra cheeeeeese from SWL1976.

Can I make that a two for one?

#124 OttawaMike on 06.05.17 at 8:27 pm

Whatdya expect the Realtors to say?

Prices are going down and everybody should hold off on their planned purchases?

#125 Sam on 06.05.17 at 8:35 pm

Smoking Man @ 116,

I agree with you about people just testing the market.
Friends have pulled their listing after not receiving any offers.

#126 Joe2.0 on 06.05.17 at 8:42 pm

16 million millionaires in the states alone.
Do the math.

Did the China thing not work out for you? — Garth

#127 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 8:47 pm

Tinfoil Fedora

So I was talking to a buddy, Hollywood Director about making a movie of my book. Should I bother turning it into a script? His Response.

“Jim, Your book is hilarious, off the wall, a brilliant creative laugh fest. But no studio will touch it, there is a format, Insighting incident, good guy vs bad guy, conflict, conclusion. You need to change the whole structure of the thing. And it is culturally backward in today’s progressive world. I would not bother.”

So I read some pdf he sent me, he’s right about scripts and yes, there is a structured approach to script writing which I was not aware of.

So the other day I was calling out J. K. Rowling as a shit writer. Then it hits me like a ton of shit bricks after reading the structured approach.

J.K. Rowlings, A starving suicidal mother writes 3 chapters, gets a huge book deal, writes 10 huge mega page books, all politically correct and script movie ready. 250 million sales worldwide, in a zillion languages.

When does any artist in today’s world get a break like that in the corporate sterilization of art? Hum?

Even writing a hundred-page fiction novel like I did is extremely hard if you want it to be good.

Then a blog dog sends me this.

http://mileswmathis.com/potter.pdf

Seems I’m not alone with the tin foil fedora.

#128 toronto1 on 06.05.17 at 9:02 pm

6% drop is some big news– and that the blended drop.

the buyers strike will continue as there never was any pent up demand. Wait until September to see were the market is as by then all of the homeowners who sold in March-April will have already closed and either brought or rented.

Then will see if first time buyers are still in or not.

What im seeing in absolute floors in pricing being put in place by not just one but a few deals in certain postal codes.

condos selling for 550K plus are now getting 470-490 and that is the new floor

semis that used to sell for 880-920 are now getting 750-800K

detached houses in the 950-1.1 range are now down to 850-925K range

yes not a lot in $ amounts but floors are being put in place and supported by second and third sales.

when the tide turns these new lows will become the absolute highs and it will get bad on the way down.

#129 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 9:17 pm

#125 Sam on 06.05.17 at 8:35 pm
Smoking Man @ 116,

I agree with you about people just testing the market.
Friends have pulled their listing after not receiving any offers.
……

Nobody studies the Herd like I do. That’s why God himself gave me a Ph.D. in Herdonomics one day in a thunderstorm on Lake Ontario.

God told me my book will be a huge seller one day when the world is ready for it.

See how the bastard keeps me down here, in spite of smoking two packs a day, and drinking from 9 pm to midnight enough booze to kill a baby elephant.

He doesn’t want me messing his followers.

UFO disclosure this year. Bank on it.

#130 Jason on 06.05.17 at 9:22 pm

“Van is not ‘hot.’ The sales mix has changed with moisters chasing cheap condos while detached sales fall significantly. Try some research. — Garth”

I know the “all RE is local” argument, but I just have to laugh at this one. My wife and I had the chance to buy a 2 bed 2 bath in Port Coquitlam last January for $319k. We passed and it ended up selling for $312k. Fast forward to May 2017 and the identical unit one floor up just sold for $490k. I kid you not. “Chasing cheap condos”?? I don’t think so. There’s nothing of value left.

#131 Joe2.0 on 06.05.17 at 9:22 pm

#126
Garth – did the China thing not workout for you.
Isn’t the best scenario, they bought up most of the houses on my street in N Van.
Including cold calling the rental I was in.
Sold.
And now the sames happening up here on the coast.
Lots of million dollar houses sitting empty.
Sound familiar?
We can’t compete with all the foreign money out there.
Vancouver and surrounding areas are considered very trendy and prestigious to be a part of.

#132 SpeedWeasel on 06.05.17 at 9:37 pm

Okay people, listen up: I am sick of reading your misspelled blog posts!

The word that means the opposite of ‘win’ is spelled with only 1 ‘o’! Yet you Neanderthals keep writing: ¨If I sell my house, I am afraid that I will loose money.¨

STOP DOING THAT!

It is real simple:
¨If your shoelace is LOOSE, you will LOSE the soccer game.¨

See the difference? Otherwise your comment loses all credibility.

#133 White Crock BC on 06.05.17 at 9:39 pm

I’m not Poloz on 06.05.17 at 7:16 pm

Dude. You’re obsessed.

Take advantage of your belief and short the CAD, buy USDs, but do something besides telling us one day that Polosz wants a 40 cent dollar, then a 25 cent dollar then a 45 cent dollar.

Remortgage you house and buy USDs.

Just remember to report the gain (or loss) on your taxes :-)

#134 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 9:52 pm

Finally figured out how to get the wife to join me down south.

She saw that huge donation to http://www.bestinvoice.biz from a random stranger from Antigua and one beauty dude that works a Ford in Oakville who sent 50 bucks. Me and him are are getting drunk together soon. Why did he do that, I don’t know, but I love him.

After the house deal closes, we fly to ST Marteen, for a week trip, take a boat to Antigua, get drunk in a bar, a random stranger claiming to be a forex guru, “actor” breaks down, says he’s been a bad man his whole life and wants to make up to God, pulls out a real estate deal and and sells the beach front to us for 1 dollar.

Honey let’s help out this guy, we don’t want to get God mad at us.

I talk her into giving proceeds of shlong branch to the kids, so we can stay on that beach front for awhile. She’s just fixated on grandkids coming up.

But damn it, she’s a straight shooter, she doesn’t understand why she drives a 2017 GLS. and has play money at Seneca to the tune of 300k a year on an unemployed code Smith and former rivet bucker salary.

Neither does CRA

Catch me if you can bastards and if you do, be afraid of that glowing orange plasma ball hovering over your house, with a built in death ray head exploder.

#135 WUL on 06.05.17 at 9:52 pm

I find this a bit curious. The Calgary Hindquarterly has not published its advertorial on the May land rush stats. Flummoxed I am.

Allow me a crass Calgary joke from the ’80’s downturn. What is the difference between a Calgary condo and an STI?

You can get rid of an STI.

#136 Bloor West - Junction Flops on 06.05.17 at 9:53 pm

Check out this listing in the hood:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18139852/130-ST-JOHNS-Road-Toronto-Ontario-M6P1T9-Junction-Area

$1.21M. For a renovation. These investor owners at “Cubecom Realty” are going to lose their shirt in this greedy flip. Walked by today and yes – those are actually glue from stickers you see on the new upstairs windows! No one living there and is a gut job. But hey, at least the investor owners weren’t that cheap and sprung a few k for window dressing. Man, LMFAO.

#137 Indie Chick on 06.05.17 at 9:59 pm

My sister is looking to buy a house in the GTA (despite my pleas to her not to and referring her to this blog). She put an offer in for a semi-detached bungalow for 770k, no other offers. Final offer was 780k and sellers demanded more. House has been on the market for over a month. She walked away. Good luck GTA sellers. Greed will be your demise.

#138 Fake News on 06.05.17 at 10:12 pm

Not a peep about Bilderberg and Bill Morreau in the MSM but PLENTY of news on “Russian Meddling” with no evidence and James Comey……..Canadian news.

#139 Hiding On the Backstreets on 06.05.17 at 10:18 pm

@ #132 Speed Weasel

Thanks loads. I’m serious. For some reason, people that spell “loose” when they want to say “lose” as in the present tense of “lost”, bug me for some reason. It’s like they’re screaming “I’m illiterate!”

Almost as bad as people that use ‘it’s’ to denote possession.

Signed – PETA (People for the Ethical Treatment of the Apostrophe)

#140 Skipper smokey on 06.05.17 at 10:20 pm

#134 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 9:52 pm

Finally figured out how to get the wife to join me down south.

She saw that huge donation to http://www.bestinvoice.biz from a random stranger from Antigua and one beauty dude that works a Ford in Oakville who sent 50 bucks. Me and him are are getting drunk together soon. Why did he do that, I don’t know, but I love him.

After the house deal closes, we fly to ST Marteen, for a week trip, take a boat to Antigua, get drunk in a bar, a random stranger claiming to be a forex guru, “actor” breaks down, says he’s been a bad man his whole life and wants to make up to God, pulls out a real estate deal and and sells the beach front to us for 1 dollar.


We’ve got a runner………..

Just sit right back and you’ll hear a tale
a tale of a fateful trip,
that started from this tropic port,
aboard this tiny ship.

The mate was a mighty sailin’ man,
the Skipper brave and sure,
five passengers set sail that day,
for a three hour tour,
a three hour tour.

The weather started getting rough,
the tiny ship was tossed.
If not for the courage of the fearless crew
the Minnow would be lost.
The Minnow would be lost.

The ship’s aground on the shore of this
uncharted desert isle
with Gilligan,
the Skipper too.
The millionaire and his wife,
the movie star,
the professor and Mary Ann,
here on Gilligan’s Isle.

(Ending verse)
So this is the tale of our castaways,
they’re here for a long, long time.
They’ll have to make the best of things,
it’s an uphill climb.

The first mate and his Skipper too
will do their very best,
to make the others comfortable
in their tropic island nest.

No phone, no lights, no motor car
not a single luxury
like Robinson Crusoe,
it’s primitive as can be.

So join us here each week my friends,
you’re sure to get a smile,
from seven stranded castaways
here on Gilligan’s Isle!

#141 Tony on 06.05.17 at 10:22 pm

Re: #58 Frank on 06.05.17 at 3:55 pm

It was the millennials who ruined the housing market for themselves in Canada. If they had of gotten a clue from the American millennials about how much a house is worth then home prices would be about one-half of what they’re worth today in Canada.

#142 jay on 06.05.17 at 10:24 pm

Seems to be lot of money in Vancouver available to buy real estate.http://www.rebgv.org/insights-rebgv-market-polls

#143 NoName on 06.05.17 at 10:26 pm

#134 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 9:52 pm

one beauty dude that works a Ford in Oakville who sent 50 bucks. Me and him are are getting drunk together soon. Why did he do that, I don’t know,

Maybe he just prepaid for beers, would be possible, or he is just patetic which would be probable., Or it’s a small price to pay to learn how to be great writer. You never know maybe is one of those legaly binding contracts where you upon accepting donations have you sold your soul or something…
You’ll eventually found out, and hopefully tell us all about it.

#144 Jazz on 06.05.17 at 10:28 pm

Looking for a car? why buy when you can get it free with this house :)

http://www.ovlix.com/ca/property/uDsGfKri-57-Lesabre-Cres-Brampton-ON-L6P3R3

#145 Entrepreneur on 06.05.17 at 10:32 pm

From a distance a maple tree looks beautiful especially in the fall but when about a foot away a person can see disfigurations like tiny holes, curled decayed leaves, not quite as perfect as one thought.

Correct spelling is second as to what a person has to say on and about this blog. If you want perfection step back, way back, so far back that you won’t notice the spelling mistakes.

#146 For those about to flop... on 06.05.17 at 10:39 pm

O.k it’s been a few days and none of the realtors on here have gotten back to me about those three sales in the 5/6 million price range and so I will lob a softball and see if anyone wants to tell me how much these guys sold this condo for last week…

M42BC

1401-38 1ST AVE W VANCOUVER sold May 30 2017

20/3/2017…..asking 1.688

15/4/2017 …asking 1.599

24/4/2017….asking 1.588

24/5/2107…asking 1.268

On the hook for 1.325

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/38-w-1st-avenue/1401

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBYMFQ3OA==

#147 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 10:42 pm

The Left = unelected globalists like Al Gore easy money, try and write a good book ass hole It’s called work.

The Right = idols that sort of see logic

#148 For those about to flop... on 06.05.17 at 10:50 pm

I’m not too sure who I want avoid more on this blog.

The spelling police or Joking Man trying to make a buck off of me every five minutes…

M42BC

#149 the Wack on 06.05.17 at 10:51 pm

Fraser Valley RE white hot, no, I’m not a realtor….

#150 IKnow on 06.05.17 at 11:02 pm

#62 TheDood

—————-

No need to humiliate the youngsters.
Just be glad that you were from a time before YVR was discovered by Money.

#151 Baluba on 06.05.17 at 11:03 pm

#57 Alistair McLaughlin on 06.05.17 at 3:51 pm
And the calls for a homeowner bailout have started already.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Bailout with what? Governments don’t produce anything at best, just waste. They have to take the money from tax payers. When 70% are “home owners” it means that they direct us to bail ourselves out. That would be fun. Cannot wait.

Canada is mostly first generation immigrants right now. If it gets so bad there is a way out. Back to the origins. Vote with the feet. That will help even more.

This is perfetcter than the perfect storm.

#152 For those about to flop... on 06.05.17 at 11:05 pm

This is the latest effort from howmuch.

American focused,but someone on here will get something out of it…

M42BC

“Which Colleges Give You the Best Value for Your Money?

Higher education is one of the most expensive investments you will ever make, and probably the most important one. So, be sure to ask the right question when deciding your future – Which college will give me the best value for my money? As this map shows, it’s not necessarily the biggest, coolest, or most elitist school in your state.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/americas-best-value-colleges-by-state

#153 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 11:06 pm

https://youtu.be/eqZCG3LzVac

#154 Howard on 06.05.17 at 11:13 pm

#34 Wrote:

Sorry to burst your bubble but – the smart money has already left the party. As an investor, I made hay while the sun was shining, sure I still own a little something, but it is free and clear and I’m using it, anything that was leveraged, I let go for an inflated price, to some hungry FOMO’s. The stupid money, those thinking their house in some no name suburb is going to fund their retirement or those using Brad Lamb investing math will now rush for the exits, as they realize this engine has no gas, but the writings been on the wall for sometime, and the pool of “greater ones” is getting shallow as many of them have already bought and are now regretting their motives. This is the beginning of the end and anyone saying otherwise is either mortgaged up to their eyeballs or a novice investor, but last time I checked in this game, ignorance will wipe you out. Checkmate GTA.
_____________________________________________

You know what’s funny about this comment is I was told the exact same thing by a “seasoned” investor in 2007. “The time to buy is long past”. “Don’t buy anything in YVR or you will regret it bigtime” etc. etc.

The “smart money” that you talk about is still coming in, loads of it, from overseas! And it will continue to come in for years to come. Yes, it’s better here, better quality of life, more freedom, stable government, gun control etc.

It really is “different here” and this really “will end well”.

Look for TO real estate to begin its upward trend again in a year once the dust settles and everyone stops trying to panic sell or panic buy. This is what happened in Vancouver, and this is what will happen in TO. As someone mentioned Vancouver is hot again, and the Fraser Valley is even hotter as people sell in the city to foreigners with boatloads of cash and move out to the suburbs and bid up prices.

#155 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 11:16 pm

DM chucking lightning bolts toward my pals on the trade floor. No smoking man aloud here.

Don’t worry. I got your back inspite of no back stuff for me.

https://youtu.be/u9Dg-g7t2l4

#156 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 11:18 pm

DELETED

#157 Not Even Sean Spicer on 06.05.17 at 11:30 pm

GTA Housing may not end well but Bitcoin will end well!

#158 EL Presidente Trump on 06.05.17 at 11:32 pm

#152 For those about to flop… on 06.05.17 at 11:05 pm

This is the latest effort from howmuch.

American focused,but someone on here will get something out of it…

M42BC

“Which Colleges Give You the Best Value for Your Money?

Higher education is one of the most expensive investments you will ever make, and probably the most important one. So, be sure to ask the right question when deciding your future – Which college will give me the best value for my money? As this map shows, it’s not necessarily the biggest, coolest, or most elitist school in your state.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/americas-best-value-colleges-by-state
..
FAKE FAKE FAKE

Where is Trump University

#159 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 11:36 pm

Best lamp dancer song. Back in the day

https://youtu.be/8SbUC-UaAxE

#160 Freemake on 06.05.17 at 11:38 pm

This is just a short-term drop. Just like Vancouver, which is now experiencing HIGHER PRICES; a whole new PEAK HIGH, Toronto will do the same. A few months of dropping prices, followed by a surge to all-time new higher prices.

The ONLY thing that is going to stop all of this price rise will be a BAN on real estate purchases by non-Canadians, and a dramatic rise in interest rates to the normal level of 4% to 5%. Short of those 2 things, nothing else will stop Toronto’s prices from being at record levels in 2 years from now.

#161 Tyronne on 06.05.17 at 11:48 pm

Hi Garth
I briefly went through the April and May reports and crunched out some numbers. This may be illuminating to your readers:

TREB April report: http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/market_watch/2017/mw1704.pdf
TREB May report: http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/market_watch/2017/mw1705.pdf

All home types (page 3 of TREB report)
======================================
Greater Toronto Area (GTA): Avg price change: -6.2% (-$56,881 from $920,791 to $863,910).
Brampton: Avg price change: -3.9% (-$29,502 from $763,092 to $733,590).
Mississauga: Avg price change: -4.5% (-$35,910 from $796,555 to $760,645).
Oakville: Avg price change: -2.5% (-$31,147 from $1,238,357 to $1,207,210)
Markham: Avg price change: -9.0% (-$107,961 from $1,204,092 to $1,096,131).
Richmond Hill: Avg price change: -19.2% (-$269,381 from $1,401,145 to $1,131,764).

Detached homes only (page 7 of TREB report)
===========================================
Greater Toronto Area (GTA): Avg price change: -5.3% (-$64,221 from $1,205,262 to $1,141,041).
Brampton: Avg price change: -3.4% (-$31,159 from $902,211 to $871,052).
Mississauga: Avg price change: -8.2% (-$101,416 from $1,237,499 to $1,136,083).
Oakville: Avg price change: +3.3% (+$50,031 from $1,511,483 to $1,561,514)
Markham: Avg price change: -7.9% (-$134,741 from $1,715,311 to $1,580,570).
Richmond Hill: Avg price change: -15.9% (-$300,284 from $1,884,611 to $1,584,327).

Thanks
Tyronne

#162 Hanny on 06.06.17 at 12:02 am

There’s a lot of discussion above about interpreting the TREB data. Here are some charts that I create for City of Toronto Condo and Single Family Detached that help make visualizing the numbers easier: http://moneypath.ca/

#163 rates vs capital on 06.06.17 at 12:22 am

#154 Howard

“Look for TO real estate to begin its upward trend again in a year once the dust settles and everyone stops trying to panic sell or panic buy. This is what happened in Vancouver, and this is what will happen in TO. As someone mentioned Vancouver is hot again, and the Fraser Valley is even hotter as people sell in the city to foreigners with boatloads of cash and move out to the suburbs and bid up prices.”

———-

Oh my, it looks like my domino theory with the spread of foreign capital has finally made it into the news – a 26% increase in the value of Fraser Valley homes coupled with warnings of illegal activity by foreign purchasers.

Of course, when the media reports it, its already an established trend by 6 months or a year. I warned everyone almost a year ago.

But hey, remember, foreign capital only constitutes ‘5%’ of the market – according to those same people that credibly generate the ‘franken numbers’ right?

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/fraser-valley-board-warns-offshore-clients-seeking-to-misuse-realtor-bank-accounts

#164 SWL1976 on 06.06.17 at 12:35 am

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz

I swear to God I could see pizza boxes in that tornado vortex !

Might explain why I havent received my medium pepperoni with extra cheeeeeese from SWL1976.

Can I make that a two for one?

————

You couldn’t pay me enough to serve the likes of you

Keep waiting

You live on the same coast I do. Perhaps you could explain the sudden haze in the shy this evening???

I look forward to your explaination without the childish school yard bully tatics there small man

#165 Long-Time Lurker on 06.06.17 at 12:53 am

#122 I thinks I know something on 06.05.17 at 8:20 pm

Nothing rises forever without taking a pause. So what if house prices backtrack for a little while. Five years from now TO RE will be much higher than they are now. The politicos will make sure of that. Wait and see what happens when interest rates go negative.

If interest rates go negative, I’m going to borrow as much as I can and laugh while the creditors pay me.

#166 NoName on 06.06.17 at 12:55 am

#140 Skipper smokey on 06.05.17 at 10:20 pm

The mate was a mighty sailin’ man,
the Skipper brave and sure,
five passengers set sail that day,
for a three hour tour,
a three hour tour.

This is was from book that I have “The Plagiarism Book” somewhere around beginning.

#167 Waiverless on 06.06.17 at 12:56 am

Just an anecdote about Greater Vancouver – can’t say anything about whether it is common or a trend.

Mortgage broker friend of mine in surrey says he’s serving a lot of Chinese buyers – citizens – way more than he is used to as typically his market is purely East Indian clientele – not sure why they’re going to him. I asked source of funds. 35%+ down offshore money. Not saying they’re foreigners, but according to the broker that’s the majority of deals he is getting. Very atypical for him – but business is business. Didn’t ask how he knew if was offshore – but they’re a broker so they must know the source I guess.

So multiple disclaimers since I’m not one to feed into the narrative of foreign buyers and one anecdote is insufficient info – but interesting that local buyers with funds from outside of Canada is definitely putting bread on his table…

#168 SWL1976 on 06.06.17 at 12:56 am

@crowdedelevatorfartz

Why don’t you come out and add somthing to this blog other than your childish bullying tactics. Prehaps you could maybe explain to us here what it is you do, and what it is in your life that has turned you into such a giant DB

I’m sure many of us would really like to know. It’s not like you bring much else to the table

#169 Wait There on 06.06.17 at 1:10 am

Markets always take care of themselves in the long run. That might be beyond the lifetime of some readers but there is no doubt that foreign money played a large part in creating turmoil in Canada and the next generation will pay dearly.

How the correction will play out? Who knows. The prior FOMO was in the late 80s. The repatriation of Hong Kong drove purchases. Odd……but these people spoke mainly Cantonese. Where are they now? Replaced by the Mandarin speaking folks who purchased what the people from Hong Kong were selling. Odd…..Where did all the Cantonese speaking people from Hong Kong go?……back to Hong Kong where they could actually make a better living and more money. It will not be different this time. Canada is a temporary safety destination should the Chinese government get into trouble. In the meantime….natives pay the price for this safety net the government created.

Once the taxman starts visiting, the exodus will begin.

#170 bdwy sktrn on 06.06.17 at 1:12 am

@ #132 Speed Weasel

Thanks loads. I’m serious. For some reason, people that spell “loose” when they want to say “lose” as in the present tense of “lost”, bug me for some reason. It’s like they’re screaming “I’m illiterate!”
——————————————–
thx for the clarification. as i am aware there is only one exception to this rule. the ‘o’ can be doubled, or even better, tripled, when used with a brooklyn accent, with the derivative ‘loser’.
as in “crooked hillary is a total loooser”

#171 Myra Andrews on 06.06.17 at 1:30 am

Vancouver Stats for June 5 (originally posted on another blog by realtor Paul Boenisch)

New 375
Price Change 59
Sold 131
TI: 8858

#172 DON on 06.06.17 at 1:33 am

#132 SpeedWeasel on 06.05.17 at 9:37 pm

Okay people, listen up: I am sick of reading your misspelled blog posts!

The word that means the opposite of ‘win’ is spelled with only 1 ‘o’! Yet you Neanderthals keep writing: ¨If I sell my house, I am afraid that I will loose money.¨

STOP DOING THAT!

It is real simple:
¨If your shoelace is LOOSE, you will LOSE the soccer game.¨

See the difference? Otherwise your comment loses all credibility.
*************************

I will over loook a person’s spelloing as substance matters more then presentation.

Over looking substance if what got us to the place where a shity condo is a cool million.

All presentation and no substance is plain crap! Give your head a shake, gently though!

#173 DON on 06.06.17 at 1:50 am

#162 DON on 06.06.17 at 1:33 am

#132 SpeedWeasel on 06.05.17 at 9:37 pm

Okay people, listen up: I am sick of reading your misspelled blog posts!

The word that means the opposite of ‘win’ is spelled with only 1 ‘o’! Yet you Neanderthals keep writing: ¨If I sell my house, I am afraid that I will loose money.¨

STOP DOING THAT!

It is real simple:
¨If your shoelace is LOOSE, you will LOSE the soccer game.¨

See the difference? Otherwise your comment loses all credibility.
*************************

I will over loook a person’s spelloing as substance matters more then presentation.

Over looking substance if what got us to the place where a shity condo is a cool million.

All presentation and no substance is plain crap! Give your head a shake, gently though!

******************************
Over looking substance “if (should have been “is”)” what got us to the place where a shity condo is a cool million.
__
…but using the wrong word is grammar fanaticism. Besides this movie is gonna be a long one, lots of popcorn required. Yah just another bull trap and then prices will shooot to the stars, hopefully there will be some buyers up there! TIMMMMMBRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.
Slow and gradual, but down to reality and the begggining of the ‘new normal’ on a repeat cycle. Even the realtor ‘generated’ data is not looking good.

Are we in the denial or anger stage?

#174 SpeedWeasel...too funny on 06.06.17 at 2:08 am

In the interests of accuracy and precision, stop dissing the Neanderthal’s as they account for only 1% to 2% of the gene’s that modern day humans carry.

It’s the damn Cro-Magnon’s that are to blame and not the Neanderthal’s (“It was the nightingale, and not the lark, That pierced the fearful hollow of thine ear.”).
___________

Your post was funny, thanks for bringing a smile to my face here in the EU.

#175 Koshy Alex on 06.06.17 at 3:09 am

I think the crash started much early in GTA, case study, 23 Waddington Crescent

North York. Don Valley Village. Real Estate · Overview … 23 Waddington Cres, Toronto. 4+2 Bed / 3 Bath / $1,500,000 …

A friend of mine lives​ in the same street, this particular house was bought an year back for 845k, was listed this year for 1.5 mil, reduced price twice but no luck, was delisted a month back, this property is an investment property. It seems even the Chinese buyers have disappeared, close to this street 4 houses were bought by Chinese students paying more than one million last year.

With more than 1.4 billion reasons why Chinese economy could blow up, maybe the Chinese government is trying to slow the flow of capital out of the country

SUSPECT SECURITY

‘Ghost collateral’ haunts loans across China’s debt-laden banking system

http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-collateral-fake/

And the coming oil crash 2.0, more uncertainty will be added to both the stock and housing market, it’s going to be an interesting year.

#176 Mark on 06.06.17 at 3:17 am

“That’s almost $1,000 to $2,500 more interest over 12 months on the average $201,000 Canadian mortgage.””

Yup. Great time to be long Canadian bank stocks. If the 1990s repeat themselves, which appears likely, they’ll quadruple. Meanwhile homeowners will spend the next decade just treading water.

It seems crazy, but if we map the performance of the 1990s TSE/TSX onto the contemporary valuation of the TSX, we could be at an index level of 60,000 in the 2023-2027 timeframe. I mean, heck, Canadian houses trade at a P/E in excess of 40, no reason the stock market can’t at least match that in some sort of mania of its own.

#177 NoName on 06.06.17 at 4:51 am

@flop

Funny thing is it’s lot cheaper to and to kids to school than lock them up.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-prison-costs-20170604-htmlstory.html

#178 Sergi on 06.06.17 at 5:00 am

#9 Bill Morneau at Bilderberg on 06.05.17 at 12:07 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgmeR6tBjMI

Well we can see now this new finance minister is just as much of a criminal/traitor as the last one


If we had a country it would be treason.
The police, military, government, opposition, etc. serve the ‘system’, which is global central banking.
monarchies and nation states, were fire walls but 2 world wars took care of that

#179 Horrible Homophones on 06.06.17 at 6:04 am

#10 Trekie2 on 06.05.17 at 12:07 pm
#132 SpeedWeasel on 06.05.17 at 9:37 pm
#139 Hiding On the Backstreets on 06.05.17 at 10:18 pm
#145 Entrepreneur on 06.05.17 at 10:32 pm
#148 For those about to flop… on 06.05.17 at 10:50 pm

Whenever one/won is about to write/right a word/award which/witch has a homophone, pause/paws a moment to consider its/it’s right/write spelling (there, their, they’re; where, wear, were; your, you’re; whose, who’s; off, of; loose, lose; its, it’s; bear, bare; capital, capitol; council, counsel [not councel, as POTUS spells it]; and so on).

#180 neo on 06.06.17 at 6:13 am

#46 I heart Milton on 06.05.17 at 2:50 pm
Hello, I am one of those novice speculators that bought a new and exciting Mattamy Home on specs, that’s on a fabulous 32 X 80 foot lot overlooking the lush Halton Municipal Dump site. I only paid just over a million for it. I have put down massive deposits already and the home will not be built until 2 years from now. They told me at the sold out sales centre that this was a safe bet as Milton is the fastest growing city in Canada and we have a lovely Walmart. Do you think I will be ok?

*********************************************

No. You are not okay. You have become a card carrying member of the Greater Fools. 32′ x 80′ lots were selling for $750,000 to $800,000 in May so you are already down $200,000 to $250,000 and you still have two long years to wait.

I know someone who bought two of your houses to rent out at a loss for $2,130,000 altogether because they believed they would be worth $1,400,000 each next year. I assume this is your primary residence and you weren’t a speccer like that idiot who is an even greater fool at this point.

#181 neo on 06.06.17 at 6:19 am

#161 Tyronne on 06.05.17 at 11:48 pm

The Oakville number is deceiving since they peaked early on March 27th and the average price of $1,282,510 is now $1,108,238.

#182 Wrk.dover on 06.06.17 at 6:36 am

House price down 64 thousand. So if I buy today, I have already EARNED 64 thousand.

Wait now, I seem to have mixed up the way of the housing market with the way of the always uppa uppa stock market.

I am trying to think like Mark. It is confusing.

#183 Desperate little man in a big white house on 06.06.17 at 7:26 am

Believe me, all you Hitlery supporters, Thursday is gonna be HUGE, a tremendous day that will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.

#184 dr ozz on 06.06.17 at 8:08 am

this is temporary. with no increase in rates or economic crisis occurring home prices will be higher in 6 months.

guarantee it.

#185 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.17 at 8:12 am

@#168 SWL1976
“Why don’t you come out and add somthing to this blog ….”
********
You mean like your “Chem Trail” conspiracy theory?

I guess I shouldnt wait for my pepperoni pizza?

P.S.

Denial is not just a river

#186 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.17 at 8:15 am

@#164 SWL1976
“Perhaps you could explain the sudden haze in the shy this evening???”
=====

The elevator doors opened?

#187 soost on 06.06.17 at 9:21 am

I’m seeing Realtors in YYZ advise people to pull inventory that isn’t selling.

They are setting out more pellegrino at open houses to boost the numbers.

Come on Horgan, get the fear going already – I can’t wait much longer.

#188 mike from mtl on 06.06.17 at 9:23 am

#184 dr ozz on 06.06.17 at 8:08 am
this is temporary. with no increase in rates or economic crisis occurring home prices will be higher in 6 months.

guarantee it
///////////////////////////////////////////////////

Exactly, the root cause is basically the easy/reckless financing to begin with. Rates are not increasing any time soon, probably dropping and no outright economic failure means no changes.

We have a long way to go before any sort of ‘real’ 50% correction.

#189 SWL1976 on 06.06.17 at 9:23 am

#186 crowdedelevatorfartz

@#164 SWL1976

“Perhaps you could explain the sudden haze in the shy this evening???”

=====

The elevator doors opened?

———-

Exactly your level of comprehension

#178 Sergi

If we had a country it would be treason.
The police, military, government, opposition, etc. serve the ‘system’, which is global central banking.
monarchies and nation states, were fire walls but 2 world wars took care of that

—————-

Sad but true. But when most of the population think like mister fartz here and honour ignorance and denial, it gives the criminals in charge free rein to do as they please. And since they also own the media they also own the message. We are being led to environment and financial ruin at the hands of very few

It doesn’t need to be this way, but sadly I don’t see much change for the better on the horizon.

One doesn’t have to dig very deep or look very far to understand this

#190 Phil on 06.06.17 at 9:29 am

#51 IHCTD9
_________________________

I agree with you. Unless BayStreet gets murdered by FinTech and has to layoff 15,000 people downtown Toronto, I can’t see houses falling 20% from here.

We would need to see that kind of massive layoff to make a real dent in the market, because right now, there are thousands of two person couples making above 140k, stacking cash and praying for a real correction. Massive layoffs at the banks would also have side-effects, including layoffs at accounting firms like PWC and Ernst/Young.

#191 Eks dee Sipal on 06.06.17 at 9:49 am

Come on, now, SWL1976…fartz is only messing with you. Chillax. Don’t ‘loose’ your cool.

Okay, so the Hitlery comment is not far off. Shirley Temple is the biological mother of Hillary, and Shirley was the niece of the man who played the role of Hitler. You can find photos online to prove this.

Could 1000 years of history simply have been made up?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Chronology_(Fomenko)

#192 Lumpia on 06.06.17 at 9:56 am

Ban non-Canadians from snagging properties, raise interest rates and Jail time for mortgage fraudsters. These 16 point Liberal move is only a slap in the wrist

#193 Mattl on 06.06.17 at 10:05 am

Friendly reminder that a drop in home value does not equal a loss. We are reminded here daily that no one has made a cent in real estate until they sell and realize the profit. The same goes for a decline in prices. As long as homeowners can make their payments, very few folks will need to sell and realize a loss. And as long as interest rates stay low, most homeowners will be able to make their payments. So while 6% is a huge drop I would anticipate that sellers will pull their listings, inventory will drop, and the decline in prices will be contained.

#194 A Reply to #189 SWL1976 on 06.06.17 at 10:10 am

“And since they also own the media they also own the message.”

Your idea is reminiscent of one by Marshall McLuhan (1911-1980): “The medium is the message.”

#195 Ole Doberman P. on 06.06.17 at 10:15 am

#154 Howard on 06.05.17 at 11:13 pm

#34 Wrote:

Sorry to burst your bubble but – the smart money has already left the party. As an investor, I made hay while the sun was shining, sure I still own a little something, but it is free and clear and I’m using it, anything that was leveraged, I let go for an inflated price, to some hungry FOMO’s. The stupid money, those thinking their house in some no name suburb is going to fund their retirement or those using Brad Lamb investing math will now rush for the exits, as they realize this engine has no gas, but the writings been on the wall for sometime, and the pool of “greater ones” is getting shallow as many of them have already bought and are now regretting their motives. This is the beginning of the end and anyone saying otherwise is either mortgaged up to their eyeballs or a novice investor, but last time I checked in this game, ignorance will wipe you out. Checkmate GTA.
_____________________________________________

You know what’s funny about this comment is I was told the exact same thing by a “seasoned” investor in 2007. “The time to buy is long past”. “Don’t buy anything in YVR or you will regret it bigtime” etc. etc.

The “smart money” that you talk about is still coming in, loads of it, from overseas! And it will continue to come in for years to come. Yes, it’s better here, better quality of life, more freedom, stable government, gun control etc.

It really is “different here” and this really “will end well”.

Look for TO real estate to begin its upward trend again in a year once the dust settles and everyone stops trying to panic sell or panic buy. This is what happened in Vancouver, and this is what will happen in TO. As someone mentioned Vancouver is hot again, and the Fraser Valley is even hotter as people sell in the city to foreigners with boatloads of cash and move out to the suburbs and bid up prices.
———————————————————
The smart money did leave in 2007, just before the GFC – then interest rates were lowered and kept there while locals binged on debt for a decade, and vwola we have a nation in massive debt.

If the “smart money” wants to stay smart they will be exiting this party out the back door.

#196 conan on 06.06.17 at 10:22 am

#132 SpeedWeasel on 06.05.17 at 9:37 pm

Oh, oh, the grammar police are here. Shape up dawgs, and they will go away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Gv0H-vPoDc

#197 paul on 06.06.17 at 10:31 am

Oh well looks like it’s starting here as well!

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/woman-allegedly-pulled-out-knife-at-canadian-tire-in-scarborough-1.3445683

#198 I thinks I know something on 06.06.17 at 10:37 am

#165 Long-Time Lurker on 06.06.17 at 12:53 am

If interest rates go negative, I’m going to borrow as much as I can and laugh while the creditors pay me.

—————————————————————-

Ha. Unfortunately, as you know, if rates go negative, it will only be so for depositors. And they may even have to take an initial haircut on their deposits. Regardless, borrowers will be paying much less than the current “emergency” rates.

#199 Tater on 06.06.17 at 10:38 am

#53 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 3:10 pm
Not as bad as you might think. Not enough inventory to cause a crash. see historical may inventory.

TREB MLS® Active Residential Listings at Month-End
Month/Year Active Listings at Month-End

May 2003 21,747
May 2004 22,484
May 2005 24,875
May 2006 26,220
May 2007 23,739
May 2008 27,267
May 2009 21,524
May 2010 25,414
May 2011 18,481
May 2012 20,462
May 2013 22,677
May 2014 20,679
May 2015 18,585
May 2016 12,931
May 2017 18,477
—————————————————————-
Supply isn’t what is going to pop this bubble. Just like how the dotcom bubble didn’t pop because there were too many IPOs.

#200 IHCTD9 on 06.06.17 at 10:39 am

New 15.00/hr Minimum wage in Ontario.

Just having fun with numbers :)

An educated couple making 125,000.00/yr who bought a bubblicious but decent metro house for 1.5 Mil would shell out 65% of their gross income every month for a 2.5% mortgage payment. Gross dollars “remaining” after the monthly is 3698.00.

A high school dropout couple in small town Ontario serving coffee at the local Timmies for the new 15.00/hr minimum wage, and who bought a decent local house for 250K would shell out 22% of their gross income every month for a 2.5% mortgage payment. Gross dollars “remaining” after the “monthly” is 4081.00.

Now figure how much worse the above would look for the urban couple using after tax dollars…

Now figure in 50-100K in school debt for the urban couple

Now figure in that the dropouts started working full time at 16.

Now figure in the drop out couple has no school debt.

Now consider that many new grads fail to ever become employed in their field, and end up serving coffee into their late twenties anyway.

Look at the economy in Ontario, consider what is being done to turn it back around, look at the decisions of our leadership the last few years. Getting a warm and fuzzy feeling? If you are, it’s from the friction and static created by Wynne pulling your wallet out of your pocket repeatedly.

Ontario is getting so bad, pulling up a mortgage calculator and some statistics opens up a brave new world of out of the box realities. Like, maybe it’s just straight out not a good idea to pursue a higher education in this Province any more.

Like, maybe you’d be safer, and even better off financially by skipping the school debt all together. Maybe starting to work in your teens is a huge win. Like, maybe earning 15.00/hr doing whatever in Madoc will likely put you in much better financial shape than your buddy who went to University to become a Professional Engineer…

#201 Rational Optimist on 06.06.17 at 10:52 am

117 A Reply to #50 Rational Optimist on 06.05.17 at 7:53 pm

It’s one of my favourite books. I can’t recommend it highly enough. Thanks for bringing it to everyone’s attention.

#202 The Wet Coast on 06.06.17 at 10:52 am

The recovering Vancouver market will force the NDP/Green party to act. This should be great to watch.

#203 stock picker on 06.06.17 at 10:56 am

Crappy houses on irregular lots still selling like hotcakes in Vanc. & Valley. Fringe selling of spec props…but generally prices continue to climb with growing demand. Hate to say it…..of course….because truth has no place in politically correct Canada…..but it all seems to be new comer cash from liar loan acceptance banks. ……no change in Vanc.

#204 S.Bby on 06.06.17 at 10:56 am

Yet more on the bank of mom and dad:
http://www.news1130.com/2017/06/06/nearly-one-five-first-time-home-buyers-receive-family-money-cmhc/

“Those who received such money also show more signs of financial stress.”

#205 James Green on 06.06.17 at 10:59 am

DELETED

#206 TurnerNation on 06.06.17 at 11:20 am

#196 Paul maybe the alleged victim or their families will appear in media tomorrow exhorting us to give money to their pet project or Fund Me campaign.
Cause that’s what I’d do next day after a major loss right? ?
Was the person “always smiling”??

How to control 7 billion sheep…a few well placed cowboys and collie dogs. Turn off your teevee.

#207 Negative on 06.06.17 at 12:06 pm

Ha. Unfortunately, as you know, if rates go negative, it will only be so for depositors.

Nope. Mortgages w negative rates exist in Europe.
It is rare, but some people GET PAID by the bank.
Although they did have to sue for it at times.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-16/first-denmark-then-belgium-now-netherlands-negative-mortgage-rates-spread-across-eur

Negative loans are impossible here and 99% unheard-of in Europe. — Garth

#208 Simplyput7 on 06.06.17 at 12:13 pm

#6 The Truth on 06.05.17 at 12:01 pm

It’s nice to know there are some honest realtors left in the GTA.

#209 paul on 06.06.17 at 12:21 pm

For inquiring minds still for sale.

7 Dalbeattie Ave

Toronto
W3830410
List:$879,000For:Sale
Toronto W04 Humberlea-Pelmo Park W4 Toronto

#210 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 06.06.17 at 12:24 pm

I spend time each winter in the Philippines where foreign ownership of land is prohibited. The reasoning is that if rich foreigners are allowed to own land it would create a bubble and average Filipinos could not afford to buy homes in their own country……How did we get it so wrong here in Canada ?

#211 IHCTD9 on 06.06.17 at 12:30 pm

Freeland shoots some powerful stuff and says Canada will step up to play a leadership role on the world stage since the US is looking more towards problems at home.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/freeland-foreign-policy-speech-1.4147672

Canada stepping in for the USA?

Yeah, we’ll send 10,000 soldiers and a couple of carrier battle groups to look after it…

LOL!

#212 James on 06.06.17 at 12:37 pm

#134 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 9:52 pm
Finally figured out how to get the wife to join me down south.
She saw that huge donation to http://www.bestinvoice.biz from a random stranger from Antigua and one beauty dude that works a Ford in Oakville who sent 50 bucks. Me and him are are getting drunk together soon. Why did he do that, I don’t know, but I love him.
After the house deal closes, we fly to ST Marteen, for a week trip, take a boat to Antigua, get drunk in a bar, a random stranger claiming to be a forex guru, “actor” breaks down, says he’s been a bad man his whole life and wants to make up to God, pulls out a real estate deal and and sells the beach front to us for 1 dollar.
Honey let’s help out this guy, we don’t want to get God mad at us.
I talk her into giving proceeds of shlong branch to the kids, so we can stay on that beach front for awhile. She’s just fixated on grandkids coming up.
But damn it, she’s a straight shooter, she doesn’t understand why she drives a 2017 GLS. and has play money at Seneca to the tune of 300k a year on an unemployed code Smith and former rivet bucker salary.
Neither does CRA
Catch me if you can bastards and if you do, be afraid of that glowing orange plasma ball hovering over your house, with a built in death ray head exploder.
…………………………………………………………………….
Wonderful Garth not we have Smoking Man slogging his merchandise on your blog. Do you get a cut?
When can we expect a sleazy car salesman and the Shamwow guy here?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwRISkyV_B8

I assumed he is offering a free app. How is free a form of slogging? — Garth

#213 Xbox Economist on 06.06.17 at 1:23 pm

#165 Long-Time Lurker on 06.06.17 at 12:53 am

If interest rates go negative, I’m going to borrow as much as I can and laugh while the creditors pay me.
____________________________________________

It doesn’t work like that. You’ll be paying to keep your money at the bank. The bank’s won’t pay you a dime. But you can bet that rates are certainly headed lower.

#214 Fake News on 06.06.17 at 1:41 pm

#185 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.17 at 8:12 am
@#168 SWL1976
“Why don’t you come out and add somthing to this blog ….”
********
You mean like your “Chem Trail” conspiracy theory?

I guess I shouldnt wait for my pepperoni pizza?

P.S.

Denial is not just a river
___________________________________

And that is why it’s called “brainwashing”.

#215 Capt. Serious on 06.06.17 at 1:42 pm

I don’t know why some people here think rates are dropping. The Fed is going up, so fixed rate mortgages are going up. BoC can’t cut without trashing the dollar, and in case, the job numbers have been good lately. BoC actually sees slack coming out of the economy in the next few quarters. That’s not an environment for easing rates. You guys are fools if you’re banking on same or lower rates going forward. 2008 was almost a decade ago, we’re moving on.

#216 Ace Goodheart on 06.06.17 at 1:45 pm

RE: #25 The Limited Sage on 06.05.17 at 1:13 pm

Canada’s Middle Class Is On The Brink Of Ruin…

https://thewalrus.ca/canadas-middle-class-is-on-the-brink-of-ruin/

In the race to parallel our livelihoods like those from West Egg, the East Egg inhabitants have instead lived their lives and built their homes on top of a valley of ash and debt.

They can always find the requisite number of goofballs with no life skills whose disastrous lives become the subject of these articles. I love the one where the couple facing financial ruin decides to take a $12,000 vacation to Africa.

There is a reason why these people are broke. Fools and their money are soon parted. I would not trust them to hold $2.50 for me to purchase a coffee.

This is not a debt problem. This is a life skills problem.

#217 John of Grant on 06.06.17 at 1:46 pm

Ron’s been a realtor since people knew who the BeeGees were. “I have never in all this time,” he told me, “seen a 6% price drop in a single month. Even back in the collapse after 1989 I cannot recall this kind of a number.”

—————

Guess he didn’t look at the drop in December from the same page 27. Also 6%. Talk of a major correction are premature. Give it a few months.

Weak argument. A price drop in December is 100% seasonal. One of this magnitude in May – peak period of the year – is unprecedented. — Garth

#218 Pete on 06.06.17 at 1:54 pm

#208 paul on 06.06.17 at 12:21 pm
For inquiring minds still for sale.
7 Dalbeattie Ave

Thanks. Paul. 879,000 dollars won’t sell. Maybe the owner should change the $ to peso. Then it will sell.

#219 paul on 06.06.17 at 1:55 pm

#205 TurnerNation on 06.06.17 at 11:20 am
#196 Paul maybe the alleged victim or their families will appear in media tomorrow exhorting us to give money to their pet project or Fund Me campaign.
Cause that’s what I’d do next day after a major loss right? ?
Was the person “always smiling”??

How to control 7 billion sheep…a few well placed cowboys and collie dogs. Turn off your teevee.
—————————————————————–
If I turn off the T.V. I would miss all these hard hitting stories. lol

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4573882/Fake-news-row-Muslim-protesters-TV-crews.html

#220 dr. talc on 06.06.17 at 1:59 pm

#9 Bill Morneau at Bilderberg on 06.05.17 at 12:07 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgmeR6tBjMI

Well we can see now this new finance minister is just as much of a criminal/traitor as the last one , hopefully he will go out the same way as the last finance minister
Should have asked him if he thinks it’s okay to fraud the Canadian tax payer out of billions a year through borrowing from private banks who in turn created the money out of thin air and if that’s a continued agenda at Bilderberg.

BTW who paid for his accommodation and trip, after all it was you and me !!!

Are there any people with a spine left in the Canadian Parliament to ask this traitor, whose interests was he representing there and in what capacity was he there??? For sure not the Canadian interests!!

Traitors and corrupt bastards everywhere and not a drop to drink …LOL all Trudeau’s cronies…

Bill did a good job of interviewing that guy.
‘where do you live, what street number’?
The guy with the camera was just lobbing softballs:
‘are you Canadian’? Gee that must have made Bill nervous.
He should have asked Bill if his Oct 3 retroactive legislation is lawlessness or tyranny

#221 Howard on 06.06.17 at 2:02 pm

#212 Xbox Economist on 06.06.17 at 1:23 pm
But you can bet that rates are certainly headed lower.

———————————————

Apparently Janet Yellen disagrees with you.

#222 mike from mtl on 06.06.17 at 2:03 pm

#214 Capt. Serious on 06.06.17 at 1:42 pm
I don’t know why some people here think rates are dropping. The Fed is going up, so fixed rate mortgages are going up. BoC can’t cut without trashing the dollar,

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Bond rates are dropping, US GDP is actually worse than ours, BoC are a bunch of weenies and that’s exactly what BoC is doing, FED is doing the dirty work and they’re doing nothing.

Wait until NAFTA is trashed, then BoC will have yet another perfect excuse.

As with the FED I’ll believe it when I see it.

The Fed increases next Wednesday. You can believe it then. In The meantime, it would be best to remain silent. — Garth

#223 NoName on 06.06.17 at 2:15 pm

Interesting Read

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/06/technology/tech-billionaires-education-zuckerberg-facebook-hastings.html

#224 NoName on 06.06.17 at 2:21 pm

and this

http://blogs.harvard.edu/philg/2017/06/05/why-arent-google-and-facebook-enriching-our-lives/

#225 rates vs capital on 06.06.17 at 2:30 pm

On the foreign capital front. Nothing to see…carry on.

—————-
China Now Links Fugitives to Canada’s Investor Immigrant Programs

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2092538/china-now-links-fugitives-investor-migration-alarms

Mobile Payment Systems Potentially Allow Users to Avoid New Chinese Capital Controls

‘A pair of widely used Chinese mobile-payment systems have launched in Vancouver and Toronto, allowing users to pay for purchases using their home currency while potentially avoiding foreign-exchange limits imposed by the Chinese government.’

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/chinese-mobile-payment-apps-launch-in-vancouver-toronto/article35200202/?ref=https://www.theglobeandmail.com&cmpid=rss1&service=mobile

I wonder if the June 14th 98% chance of a fed rate hike will actually arise.

If so, we are that much closer to seeing whether low rates and cheap money is the key driver in the GTA and Metro Vancouver real estate markets….

#226 James on 06.06.17 at 2:34 pm

#211 James on 06.06.17 at 12:37 pm

#134 Smoking Man on 06.05.17 at 9:52 pm
Finally figured out how to get the wife to join me down south.
She saw that huge donation to http://www.bestinvoice.biz from a random stranger from Antigua and one beauty dude that works a Ford in Oakville who sent 50 bucks. Me and him are are getting drunk together soon. Why did he do that, I don’t know, but I love him.
After the house deal closes, we fly to ST Marteen, for a week trip, take a boat to Antigua, get drunk in a bar, a random stranger claiming to be a forex guru, “actor” breaks down, says he’s been a bad man his whole life and wants to make up to God, pulls out a real estate deal and and sells the beach front to us for 1 dollar.
Honey let’s help out this guy, we don’t want to get God mad at us.
I talk her into giving proceeds of shlong branch to the kids, so we can stay on that beach front for awhile. She’s just fixated on grandkids coming up.
But damn it, she’s a straight shooter, she doesn’t understand why she drives a 2017 GLS. and has play money at Seneca to the tune of 300k a year on an unemployed code Smith and former rivet bucker salary.
Neither does CRA
Catch me if you can bastards and if you do, be afraid of that glowing orange plasma ball hovering over your house, with a built in death ray head exploder.
…………………………………………………………………….
Wonderful Garth not we have Smoking Man slogging his merchandise on your blog. Do you get a cut?
When can we expect a sleazy car salesman and the Shamwow guy here?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwRISkyV_B8

I assumed he is offering a free app. How is free a form of slogging? — Garth
……………………………………………………………………
“There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch” everybody knows that! There has to be residuals.

#227 AGuyInVancouver on 06.06.17 at 2:40 pm

#201 The Wet Coast on 06.06.17 at 10:52 am
The recovering Vancouver market will force the NDP/Green party to act. This should be great to watch.

_______________________
Horgan can just bring BC’s foreign tax into sync with Ontario’s and applying it to presales. Then follow Wynne’s lead again and bring in stricter rent controls and apply it to individual condo owners as well. Right now someone renting a privately owned condo has pretty much zilch protection in BC.

#228 obi wan kenobi on 06.06.17 at 2:50 pm

you are dreaming, no semis in C15 under $800000, this is 10% more than JAN 01…

inventory also dropped in june vs peak in may, 2/3 of houses taken off market, do not get relisted

if you sell now, at a discount, you lose $100000 for nothing, wait until SEP.

the backlog of buyers is just growing larger than before and soon there’ll be a “gold rush”

finders – keepers :)

#229 fancy_pants on 06.06.17 at 2:57 pm

go ahead and queue the bubbles. there is no such thing as truly free market dynamics anymore, it’s all funny money chasing dreams

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/5-highly-respected-financial-experts-that-are-warning-that-a-market-crash-is-imminent

Did you know reading that site makes you impotent? Seriously. — Garth

#230 Negative on 06.06.17 at 3:02 pm

Negative loans are impossible here and 99% unheard-of in Europe. — Garth

Guess what they said in Europe 5 years ago:
“Negative loans are impossible here.”

And yet…

Some people get paid for borrowing. (FACT)

Nobody anywhere gets paid for borrowing money on a mortgage (fact). — Garth

#231 Long-Time Lurker on 06.06.17 at 3:21 pm

#197 I thinks I know something on 06.06.17 at 10:37 am

—————————————————————-

Ha. Unfortunately, as you know, if rates go negative, it will only be so for depositors. And they may even have to take an initial haircut on their deposits. Regardless, borrowers will be paying much less than the current “emergency” rates.

Thanks for the response. No one trades jibes with me here. For those who didn’t get it: I was joking.

#212 Xbox Economist on 06.06.17 at 1:23 pm

It doesn’t work like that. You’ll be paying to keep your money at the bank. The bank’s won’t pay you a dime. But you can bet that rates are certainly headed lower.

Japan had negative interest rates. The people there took their money out of the banks and put it into safes.

Lawnmower Guy on CBC
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/three-hill-tornado-lawn-mower-1.4145466

#232 rental property math on 06.06.17 at 3:26 pm

Negative loans are impossible here and 99% unheard-of in Europe. — Garth

Guess what they said in Europe 5 years ago:
“Negative loans are impossible here.”

And yet…

Some people get paid for borrowing. (FACT)

Nobody anywhere gets paid for borrowing money on a mortgage (fact). — Garth

———————–
actually I have. one of the big 6 banks gave me $5000 to open savings account with them when I yanked 200K out of a rental property I had a mortgage with them on. I had to hold the 200K with them for a minimum of 6 months. then when I used that money towards a down payment on another property they gave me a $2600 cash back on my mortgage.

#233 Entrepreneur on 06.06.17 at 3:28 pm

Have to really listen to that video of Freeland #210 IHCTD9 when I have more time. But what I heard and got from it was U.S. went one way and Canada is going their way. And to me that is saying to the U.S. “too bad, so sorry” but we can it do it alone without you.

And if that is the case, like really. Oh, not what I have learned and experienced in my lifetime: The U.S.A. and Canada have always being in a friendship and partnership. Disagreements for sure but buddies.

I will stand behind Canada but also behind U.S.

#234 Tater on 06.06.17 at 3:35 pm

#231 rental property math on 06.06.17 at 3:26 pm
Negative loans are impossible here and 99% unheard-of in Europe. — Garth

Guess what they said in Europe 5 years ago:
“Negative loans are impossible here.”

And yet…

Some people get paid for borrowing. (FACT)

Nobody anywhere gets paid for borrowing money on a mortgage (fact). — Garth

———————–
actually I have. one of the big 6 banks gave me $5000 to open savings account with them when I yanked 200K out of a rental property I had a mortgage with them on. I had to hold the 200K with them for a minimum of 6 months. then when I used that money towards a down payment on another property they gave me a $2600 cash back on my mortgage.
——————————————————————–

And did they charge you interest on that mortgage?

#235 RP on 06.06.17 at 3:41 pm

Toronto RE soon to be buyers market. Note how in the final paragraphs there is mention of investing in financial markets outside Canada to shield against a Canadian housing downturn.

https://www.google.ca/amp/globalnews.ca/news/3505793/toronto-buyers-market-rbc/amp/

#236 IHCTD9 on 06.06.17 at 4:05 pm

Lawnmower Guy on CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/three-hill-tornado-lawn-mower-1.4145466
_____

Cool, I just went ahead and assumed it was a photo shop.

#237 Joe Bloggs on 06.06.17 at 4:08 pm

“Nobody anywhere gets paid for borrowing money on a mortgage (fact). — Garth”
– LOL!!! You should know better then that:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-upside-down-world-of-negative-interest-rates-1460643111

http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/mortgage-borrower-to-be-paid-by-bank/news-story/c8c6697a488e981c5c523a995185b28f

#238 IHCTD9 on 06.06.17 at 4:09 pm

when I used that money towards a down payment on another property they gave me a $2600 cash back on my mortgage.
______

You got paid jack.

#239 Xbox Economist on 06.06.17 at 4:11 pm

#220 Howard on 06.06.17 at 2:02 pm
#212 Xbox Economist on 06.06.17 at 1:23 pm
But you can bet that rates are certainly headed lower.

———————————————

Apparently Janet Yellen disagrees with you.
___________________________________________

Yeah, and rates have fallen since the last time she hiked.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

#240 Rob Fortyyy on 06.06.17 at 4:18 pm

#160 Freemake on 06.05.17 at 11:38 pm

My thoughts exactly.

Nothing has fundamentally changed since the new rules came out. Just buyer sentiment.

With the same economic climate ie. low interest rates and limited new construction, the market will just continue to climb again.

#241 westcdn on 06.06.17 at 4:30 pm

A few years back I thought it would a good idea to bond more with my eldest daughter. She was getting into her impressible teens. I took her fishing. I was using low grade gear so I wasn’t expecting to catch anything. I wanted the conversation. My mother had her first pregnancy at 16. I thought it was tad young and I then found out I was child number 3.

Guess what! I beat that fish to death using an oar from the rowboat. I dare you to try that. I look back at my daughter. She was horrified and she is the tough one. She forgave me. We didn’t have the conversation I was hoping.

So one year I thought it would be good idea to have an Easter Day egg hunt. It snowed a ton that night. I spent the remainder of the year putting those things into the waste can.

My tomatoes are growing well. Alberta has a short growing season. I was surprised to have a few growing already. But I won’t buy those plants again – there are too fragile for this climate. I also decided to grow radishes – I think they are ready to harvest. I have been my backyard garden of quack grass because I want to try potatoes next year.

I like this commercial from Canadian Tire, being a guy can be tough.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HoPdhTUFjc

#242 bdwy sktrn on 06.06.17 at 4:46 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadas-housing-markets-arent-headed-catastrophe-170524700.html

This blog never said a housing ‘catastrophe’ is coming. But it won’t be pleasant. — Garth

#243 Alice on 06.06.17 at 5:18 pm

@ #238 Rob Fortyyy on 06.06.17 at 4:18 pm

Could be. It looks like that’s what Vancouver’s market did. People there are calling the six months of lower prices a “crash,” even though it clearly wasn’t. They’re digging a deeper hole.

#244 choptstix on 06.06.17 at 6:01 pm

”Garth,
How do you explain the Vancouver market? Even though things have slowed it doesn’t appear that prices are anywhere near affordable.”
——————————-
exactly it ain’t happening in the condo market, to be sure.

#245 Evan on 06.07.17 at 4:07 am

The housing bubble reflects the dividend growth investing bubble in the stock market right now. Rising prices have blinded home owners and investors to massive risks on the horizon.

https://www.brokenleginvesting.com/dividend-growth-investing-lose-life-savings/

The risk, as Garth has been talking about, is interest rate risk… and changing sentiment. We’re setting the next generation up for a lifetime of debt slavery.

#246 Eric on 06.07.17 at 9:19 am

Question please – how’s the rest of the country going to react to GTA RE ripples? What about the prairies, Winnipeg – will they see any change in pricing too?

#247 EM on 06.07.17 at 8:23 pm

I had to laugh, just the other day, when I received one of those standard marketing newsletters about the Toronto condo building I live in – they were trying to spin the number of listings, that higher meant good, and they reaaaallly padded the y/y sales numbers so that it appeared as though the number of sales were equal to last year. Lol. Just like Garth’s mention above, about the “benefit in increased listings”. Will be interesting to see next month’s bar charts.