Duck!

Two days ago US stock markets hit record highs. But Wednesday was the worst day in eight months. Equities fell. Bolds rallied. Volatility spiked. Gold gained. The US dollar tanked. Big markets in Toronto and New York shed a little under 2%. Balanced portfolios were down less than half of that. In terms of losing days, it was a piffle. But humans being humans, fear was in the air.

Why did stocks fall?

Not because Donald Trump is a fool who thought he could bully his way over the justice system and intimidate then fire the FBI boss, or whose campaign operatives may have encouraged Russian hackers to throw the presidential election, or even because the guy is unethical and may end up impeached. Markets don’t care about Trump. But they’re obsessed with making money – and he’s suddenly turned bad for business.

Investors feted Trumpenomics starting in November, figuring his testo-driven, pro-business agenda would goose GDP, cut taxes, boost spending and slash regulations. After four months of governing, none of that is remotely close to happening. Worse, his gaffes have weakened support in Congress and made him look like a whiny billionaire. Claiming three million illegals voted in the last election or that Obama wiretapped him is right up there with his birther blatherings and Ivanka hiring Chinese workers for $1 an hour.

This guy is going down. Deservedly, maybe. But he will not take prudent investors with him.

Yes, financial markets hate uncertainty. Just look at what has happened on the VIX, which measures volatility:

And the correlation between the Trump missteps and the market’s moves lower are unmistakeable. When FBI Director Comey was punted, eyebrows were raised – given his meritorious service in government. “Comey,” said NBC News Tuesday night, “has more credibility in Washington than the President.” Then all hell broke loose as it became clear Comey was fired for refusing a Trump directive to back off an inquiry into the dismissal of a Cabinet minister and, likely, the Russian connection.

Thus, the Donald may have obstructed justice. If true or proven, he’s history. And so we had this reaction to the news:

Should you worry? Is it time to run around in circles, break into a cold sweat, eat a bottle of Tums or just wade quietly and desperately into the sea? Could the Trumpster destroy your retirement or Hoover your house money?

Yes, of course. If you panic, act emotionally or generally invest with your pants. Here is what the Big Brains behind this pathetic blog think is happening, and what is likely to come next

  • This will continue to play out over months with no quick resolution. So, like, ignore it.
  • If there’s a smoking gun of collusion with Russia and it’s proven that Trump tried to impede the investigation – it’s an impeachable event. This would be very unsettling in the short-term and result in further market weakness.
  • However this should not derail the economy and lead to a recession, because the US recovery continues and is strengthening.
  • Markets were overdue for a pullback given the strong run since November, and the low volatility on the VIX (until this week) showed investors were not pricing in his dippiness.
  • You need to remember these market sell-offs happen with on average three 5% pullbacks a year and one 10% correction a year. This is normal.
  • Even with Wednesday’s sell off the technicals remain bullish with the S&P 500 in an uptrend and above its rising 200-day moving average. The market’s just 2% off its highs and is up 5.3% even after today’s decline
  • Corporate profits – the mother’s milk of stock prices – were up 18% in the first quarter are expected to remain strong for the rest of year
  • So we have an improving economy, robust corporate, low inflation allowing central banks to keep rates low, plus the technicals remain strong. “I’m still bullish,” says guest blogger and fancy portfolio manager Ryan Lewenza, “but continue to think 2018 could be a more challenging year. Right now, investors should chill.”

Of course, if you have all of your money in equities, Wednesday sucked. But you deserved it. The way to find zen is to have that balanced and diversification we’re always yapping about. When stocks inevitably correct, bonds go up. Meanwhile the REITs continue to churn out their distributions and the preferreds deliver tax-sweet, fat yields. Investors with a good exposure to international markets can also benefit from the good stuff happening in Europe these days, where valuations are cheap, corporate earnings strengthening and the Trump wannabees have been handed their collective ass.

Out there, somewhere, is normal. Just wait.

219 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 6:30 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Richmond.

Maybe this one has been taken off the market already after a healthy reduction yesterday.

Possibly a deal has already been done as they were on the hook for 1.03 for this 2004 built condo.

If a sudden deal got done they likely got enough to break even or make a tiny profit or else they wouldn’t have sold so quick you would suspect.We will find out in around 3/4months.

Still have lots of cases waiting for bc assessment to give me the final result now that Broadway has turned his attention to the stock market.

How many more posts do I have to do of people in possible distress to pass the next person on the Blowhard Billboard…

M42BC

96 6300 Birch Street, Richmond

Mar 17:$1,250,000
May 16: $1,088,888
Change: – 161112.00 -13%

https://www.estateblock.com/richmond-real-estate/96-6300-birch-st-richmond-bc-v6y-4k3-mls-r2167273-1

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2164873/96-6300-birch-street-richmond-bc

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1V0dZOA==

#2 Alice on 05.17.17 at 6:30 pm

Canadian real estate speculators are diversified, they started speculating on US property. :P

https://betterdwelling.com/the-us-has-a-foreign-buying-problem-and-its-not-china/

But seriously, anyone that concentrates their wealth into a single asset class deserves to get burnt until they learn their lesson. Market tuition.

#3 Cheap Houses on 05.17.17 at 6:33 pm

Fake News drop in the DOW. But that is typical with the left today.

#4 Fake News on 05.17.17 at 6:35 pm

Fake News drop in the DOW but what do you expect in the world of lefty libtards.

#5 boonerator on 05.17.17 at 6:45 pm

Any impeachment is premature until/if the Dems get the house.
We cannot underestimate the tribal nature of Trump support. He could BBQ a puppy on Main street in their town and he’d still be their guy.

#6 Sir James on 05.17.17 at 6:46 pm

Trump released C.Manning today, even though he once called him a traitor. It’s great to see Trump show such compassion and change his mind. Manning is a hero for exposing the crimes of the US Military against the people of Iraq, just like Putin is a hero for exposing the crimes of the Democrats against The American People. Peace.

Obama, not Trump, dud it. — Garth

#7 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.17.17 at 6:48 pm

OAK BAY DETACHED HOME SALES CRASH 71% FROM YEAR-AGO LEVELS IN APRIL

Year-over-year demand in Oak Bay tanked US-style in April.

April sales dwindled hardcore to a shocking 45% below Oak Bay’s 10-year average.

And you believed the fabrication of local realtors and media who had worked hard to convince you that foreign buyers and “new money” had been flooding into Oak Bay real estate, “Vancouverizing” the area and transforming it, along with the res of Victoria, into the “new luxury home capital” of the world.

You were misled.

If an unlimited number of foreign buyers had been buying all of the real estate in Victoria, especially in the more expensive areas like Oak Bay, it would most certainly show up in Oak Bay’s sales numbers, causing sales to skyrocket higher each month and setting new records year after year.

Instead of that, we have Oak Bay sales crashing 71% year-over-year in April and sales tanking 43% y/y across Greater Victoria.

It’s time to face facts – the number of foreign and “new money” buyers in Victoria has obviously been exaggerated an unbelievable amount by those who have self-serving reasons to do so.

And the same house-humpers who claimed that sales numbers in Oak Bay would never fall below the “new normal” levels reached in 2016 are now claiming that house prices in Oak Bay and the rest of Victoria will never fall.

A strong trend seems to be developing here – if you bet on the opposite of what they claim, you’ll come out a winner.

They lost any and all credibility they might have had a long time ago.

Victoria’s housing bubble is massive. It’s so extremely overvalued that even CMHC, which is accountable to parliament and therefore 100% likely to understate the severity of problematic conditions in any Canadian housing market, recently gave Victoria a code red rating.

Victoria’s bubble price run-up (+ 199% since 2000) absolutely dwarfs that of San Francisco (+ 116%) before peaking and falling 45% after 2006.

A deep price decline awaits Oak Bay and the rest of Victoria. There is no escaping it. It’s only a matter of time and Victoria’s 43% drop in detached sales strongly suggests the start date isn’t too far in the future.

A brutal outcome awaits every housing bubble.

#8 I'm stupid on 05.17.17 at 6:50 pm

An entire post about a 2% decline in equities, how boring. I remember the good old days of 2008-2009. Nothing is more exciting than watching amateurs losing their shirts. Such raw emotion when someone goes bust. The moment he realizes that he’s an idiot is priceless. Watching as he blames it on bad luck, bad timing, other people but deep down he knows he screwed up and is financially ruined.

It’s never bad luck, bad timing or someone else’s fault. If you’re seeking higher yields you must accept the higher risk. It’s that simple.

#9 Trumpocalypse2017 on 05.17.17 at 6:52 pm

Good analysis of the economic stuff, Garth.

What we must beware is the tendency of all autocrats to use war and confrontation as diversions from domestic chaos.

That is coming, within days. It’s just a matter of where.

I am preparing contingency plans for the possibility that a modern civil war may also break out in America, very soon.

Prepare…………..

#10 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.17.17 at 6:52 pm

VICTORIA’S BUBBLE PRICE-RUN UP DWARFS ALMOST ALL AMERICAN CITIES

As part of their “it’s different in Canada” brainwashing efforts, the house-humping Canadian media has convinced Canadians that every city in the US crashed after 2006. Such is not the case at all. Consider the following facts:

Dallas:
2000 to 2007: prices increased + 26%… (adding only a quarter)
2007 to 2009: lost 54% of those gains as prices fell 11%.

Denver:
2000 to 2006: prices increased + 38%… (adding less than a half)
2006 to 2009: lost 42% of those gains as prices fell 12%.

Seattle:
2000 to 2007: prices increased + 92%… (less than doubling)
2007 to 2012: lost 69% of those gains as prices fell 33%.

San Francisco:
2000 to 2006: prices increased + 116%… (more than doubling)
2006 to 2009: lost 84% of those gains as prices fell 42%.

Compare with the price run-ups in these Canadian cities:

Halifax:
2000 to 2013: prices increased + 111%… (more than doubling)

Victoria:
2000 to 2017: prices increased + 199%… (tripling, increasing by a factor of 3)

Vancouver:
2000 to 2016: prices increased + 269%… (increasing by a factor of almost 4)

Obviously there is a correlation here: the bigger the price run-up, the higher the percentage of gains lost in the inevitable market correction.

If you apply this across other American cities, the correlation holds true. Indeed the correlation holds true if you apply it to housing bubbles in other countries, for example: Ireland, Japan, Greece, Spain, Iceland, etc.

Naturally, this correlation will hold true for Canada as well.

Income gains in Victoria haven’t tripled since 2000 like house prices have. Nowhere near that amount, in fact. It would be fair to say that incomes in Victoria have grown only a fraction of the amount that house prices have swelled over the past 17 years. The situation is even worse in Vancouver.

FALSE INFORMATION

Those who ignore the price run-ups in Canadian cities from 2000 to 2010 likely belong to the group of usual suspects that have a vested interest in keeping house prices high in Canada (Canadian policymakers, CMHC, bankers, economists, realtors, etc.).

Skyrocketing price gains in Canada from 2000 to 2008 were the result of extremely lax lending standards with weak Canadian-style rule enforcement, surging mortgage debt, etc. Plenty of the 40-year mortgages from that time still have 30 years remaining on them and a big chunk of those mortgage holders have moved up, maximizing the mortgages with even more debt. Billions of dollars of those paper gains has been spent through HELOCs.

How will the air pockets from 2000 to 2008 provide any sort of price support if (and many assume when) prices fall back to those levels? What would prevent house prices from declining 50% or even 75% in some cities? History has shown that declines of that depth can easily happen with housing bubbles.

As is always the case, I make no prediction about the depth of Canada’s inevitable price decline other than that it will be much deeper than almost anyone could have imagined. Nor do I claim to be able to predict exactly when price declines will begin in any city.

COMPARING HOUSING BUBBLES: CANADA VS THE US

US policy makers made the decision to create a housing bubble in 2001 to offset the effects of the recession caused by the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble. Canada followed America’s lead soon after.

Mortgage lending standards were lowered dramatically after 2000 in both countries.

All metrics clearly show that housing bubbles of equal size formed in both Canada and the US from 2000 to 2006/2008.

From 2000 – 2006:
* House prices in Canada increased slightly more than in the US (first chart).
* The increase in Canada’s price-to-income ratio over this 6 year period equalled that of the US (first chart).
* Canada’s price-to-rent ratio increased more than that in the States (second chart).
* Canada and the US had similar household debt-to-income ratios by 2006 (third chart).
* In Canada, the percent of labour force employed in construction increased more than in the US (first chart).
* In Canada, residential construction as percent of GDP increased more than in the States (second chart).
* Canada’s increase in real estate investment as percent of GDP increased more than in the US (second chart).

In 2011, the Economist finally declared “Canada’s Housing Market More Overvalued Than U.S. At Its Peak”. The above information shows that their assessment came well after the fact.

THE NATURAL CONSEQUENCE OF OUT OF CONTROL HOUSEHOLD DEBT

One of the most troubling things for the Canadian economy is that household debt levels have skyrocketed since 2000 (third chart) and that situation keeps getting worse. No Canadian city is without this serious issue, due mostly to surging mortgage debt.

All major Canadian housing markets will keep their bubble status until household debt levels move from extreme and dangerous levels back down to normal, safe levels. And only a deep housing price correction will accomplish this.

The American bubble disappeared only after house prices underwent a major decline and household debt levels shrunk to normal, safe levels.

IT WON’T HAPPEN HERE

Until Canada’s deep price correction is solidly underway, you will hear all kinds of statements of denial from Canadian policymakers, economists, bankers, realtors, etc. as they attempt to convince Canadians that it’s different here.

This type of denial was evident in the US as the American bubble was reaching its maximum size. The following is an example from 2005.

“In short, we are asked to worry about something that has never happened for reasons still to be coherently explained. ‘Housing bubble’ worrywarts have long been hopelessly confused. It would have been financially foolhardy to listen to them in 2002. It still is.”

* Alan Reynolds, Senior Fellow, Cato Institute (US):
“No Housing Bubble Trouble”, Washington Times (January 8, 2005):

Then Mr. Market did what he always does with bubble markets.

#11 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 6:52 pm

Confirmed Pink Snow.

This is one of the cases that I already new that they took a big loss ,but now we have official confirmation.

Feb 2016 paid 685k

April 2017 sold 600k

So that’s approximately a 12.5% loss and by the time you throw in the closing costs you are probably pretty close to 20%

I have other cases in the exact same building…

6019-5511 HOLLYBRIDGE WAY RICHMOND

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBOQjRDSw==

#12 Duck Duck Goose on 05.17.17 at 6:53 pm

Canada’s Middle Class Is on the Brink of Ruin

https://thewalrus.ca/canadas-middle-class-is-on-the-brink-of-ruin/

#13 Sam the Sham on 05.17.17 at 6:59 pm

The Dow Jones is down 372, almost 2%!! To paraphrase George W. Bush “This sucker is going down!!”. Get out while you can! What would you do if you hit the sell button and nothing happened? When everyone is trying to sell at the same time, it’s too late. First go to cash and then get your money into something tangible such as Real Estate or a shiny metal. He who hesitates is lost!

#14 Dave on 05.17.17 at 7:01 pm

It’s been so long that the new normal will still be far different then before. We all just went thru a new world order…majority will be in crippling debt while others made a fortune.

#15 AB Boxster on 05.17.17 at 7:02 pm

Really Garth.
Quoting NBC news.
About as reliable as quoting CBC.

It was always pretty obvious that America was polarized politically.

The election of Trump shows how extreme American politics has become.

The issues of Russia tampering in the election, or Trump giving clasisified details about exploding laptops, or any number of idiotic issues ‘exposed’ by the left leaning media, just shows how far gone the political process is.

As easy as exposing Clinton for the mail server leaks, or the ‘pay to play’ contributions of the Clinton foundation,or the cover-up of billy boy sexual assault history. Except the left media will not cover the these misdeads.

If Trump is impeached America will implode, as there are no honest brokers on any side that are not beholden to their lobbyist funding friends.

With Trump, at least you had a leader that could not be bought.

With all the rest, Democrat , Republican, the Bernie Sanders socialist nutjobs, not so much.

The American people need a sceond revolution to start over.

#16 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 7:02 pm

Forgot to add and perhaps to spell it out for anyone too lazy to click on the link.

This was a relatively new condo in Richmond,for those out East ,it is one of the inner cities that make up Greater Vancouver.

Didn’t help this person from taking a big hit.

Condo market is on fire…

M42BC

#17 Andrewski on 05.17.17 at 7:03 pm

Cohodes has cojones:

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/05/12/meet-the-man-whos-betting-home-capital-will-fail-wells.html

#18 Joseph R. on 05.17.17 at 7:04 pm

#3 Fake News on 05.17.17 at 6:35 pm
Fake News drop in the DOW but what do you expect in the world of lefty libtards.

—————————————————

No. Today’s drop in the Indexes (DOW, S&P and TSX) are real and are caused by some political instability, not economical fundamentals; nothing to worry about if you are balanced.

The “Fake News” of the day (the alt-right talking points) are the conspiracy theories about the murder of Seth Rich. So bad, that even the very conservative Washington Examiner says it’s bunk:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/one-last-time-that-seth-rich-story-is-garbage/article/2623382

#19 Nonplused on 05.17.17 at 7:05 pm

More Trump bashing Garth? He is hands down the best president the US has ever had! From an entertainment point of view anyway. But what did they expect when they elected a reality TV show host and casino operator? Oh ya and he was doing the beauty pageant thing for a while.

I think the whole thing is a staged distraction. Trump isn’t going to get impeached for telling the Russians to tighten their airline security ahead of a possible ISIS strike against them. As for Comey, the democrats have wanted him fired for months as they blame him for the election results. They get their wish and they go ballistic. As for the potential interference in an investigation, the transcripts we have so far aren’t very damning so we’ll have to see if more turns up. So far it looks like a play by CNN to boost ratings and nothing more. They don’t report the news, they create it.

Nobody believes what they see on TV anymore and neither should you.

If Trump does get impeached, holy heck I’ll be watching CNN 12 hours a day! Best reality TV show ever! Trump is a ratings genius! It’ll be enough to bury the Clinton e-mail thing once and for all, thankfully, because that story has become boring.

Also it may bring about a brief period of relatively ideal government, because they won’t be able to get anything done until the next election. Hooray! 3 years of no new laws or wars!

#20 Seattle on 05.17.17 at 7:13 pm

By chill, do you mean hold off contributing or to not panic? Would you suggest continuing to feed my portfolio in this climate?

My cash stockpile is growing, but I’m not sure if I should transfer it to my portfolio or wait. Thanks to some hefty tax returns and bonuses last month, I’m sitting at about 50/50 cash/stock, too much cash.

#21 Timmy on 05.17.17 at 7:14 pm

Having money in bonds is a surefire way to diminish your long term returns. I wouldn’t have any in bonds unless I was retired, even then I wouldn’t have a huge allocation. Even with the corrections over the last 10 years a portfolio of 100 percent equities has far outperformed one with 40 percent bonds.

No smart investor has 40% in bonds. — Garth

#22 BobC on 05.17.17 at 7:19 pm

You should stick to financial matters and Canadian real estate. Your a genius.
American politics – not so much. MSM has you brainwashed.

Let me guess…Trump supporter? — Garth

#23 TurnerNation on 05.17.17 at 7:20 pm

A question to Blog dog Poloz.
Is Home Crapital Too Big to Fail; or: Too Big, Too Frail?

#24 I'm Not Poloz on 05.17.17 at 7:22 pm

Yet the Loonie is struggling at 73.4 cents while the Euro is skyrocketing at $1.115, from the previous $1.088. Is Poloz doing something behind the scenes to prevent the Loonie from aiming higher?

#25 RentYVR on 05.17.17 at 7:22 pm

Meh 2% is hardly a record setting one-day decline. But whatever, if people want to dump their stocks at a discount i’m happy to buy.

#26 Steve on 05.17.17 at 7:25 pm

Re: VREU #6, #9 posts.

To VREU. I have always appreciated your astute analysis of the Victoria real estate market and I hope you continue to do so.

As someone who is looking to purchase a home in the Victoria region what would be your best guess as to when we will see significant declines in price? Of course no one knows but I would appreciate your comment.

Thanks

#27 Marcus on 05.17.17 at 7:32 pm

The real funny thing is that Trump will go for 8 years. Such a strange world we live in now. Fake news. Innuendo by the hour thrown out like bread to the pigeons. This is an internal war between the Globalists and the multi-polar nationalists. It will get ugly but in the end the Multi-polar world will win.

#28 vreu's answer on 05.17.17 at 7:33 pm

As someone who is looking to purchase a home in the Victoria region what would be your best guess as to when we will see significant declines in price?
————-
2012,2013,2014,2015, for sure 2016 and 2017

#29 Brian on 05.17.17 at 7:37 pm

Low rates forever. I’ll come back in a decade and nothing will have changed.

#30 Fake news on 05.17.17 at 7:38 pm

News is creating this ! Portfolios got whacked today ! Sad!

#31 NoName on 05.17.17 at 7:50 pm

#7 I’m stupid on 05.17.17 at 6:50 pm

An entire post about a 2% decline in equities, how boring. I remember the good old days of 2008-2009. Nothing is more exciting than watching amateurs losing their shirts. Such raw emotion when someone goes bust. The moment he realizes that he’s an idiot is priceless. Watching as he blames it on bad luck, bad timing, other people but deep down he knows he screwed up and is financially ruined.

It’s never bad luck, bad timing or someone else’s fault. If you’re seeking higher yields you must accept the higher risk. It’s that simple.

—-

i dont understand your post, especialy “watching amateurs losing their shirts.” if someone owned brk ( many people say, best runned company ever) from nov 2007 to feb 2009 someone would basicly “lost shirt” it went from 141000$ to 78600$.
that is 45% loss.
Best and smartest investor/s managed to luse 45% of value in company in a year and a half…
what am i missing.

i know what you meant, but let me quote a buffet for you.

“I measure success by how many people love me,”
WB

#32 Doug t on 05.17.17 at 7:53 pm

This is all playing out the way TPTB want it to – Trump is and always has been a red herring – he will end up on the trash heap of history and the true power elite will say “see what happens – now settle down and let us control everything” – back in your box people, nothing to see here move on

RATM

#33 Sir James on 05.17.17 at 7:54 pm

BREAKING: Curtains for Comey, White house releases video of Comey blowing his nose on Oval Office curtains as Trump busy taking call from his wife!!! Comey must of though he had control of the video.

#34 Smartalox on 05.17.17 at 7:56 pm

Trump has picked a heck of a time to go on a prolonged trip of Europe and the middle East.

His already underpowered entourage will be split between two locations, and his famous 4am tweets will land in America in time for the 11 O’Clock news.

Also the big East Coast news organizations will be dropping their lead stories in the middle of Trump’s day, so expect a lot of pointed questions and unsatisfactory non-responses from the President live, from whatever press conference he might be attending in the moment.

Finally, the congressional and senate hearings (late morning and early afternoon, Washington DC time) will be sure to keep Trump up at night.

I foresee a lot of bad decisions being made next week.

#35 AK on 05.17.17 at 7:59 pm

“This guy is going down. Deservedly, maybe. ”
——————————————————————
Not going to happen.

He will also drive the MSM nuts, In the meantime.

#36 jay on 05.17.17 at 8:01 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/pressure-builds-on-bank-of-canada-to-tackle-house-prices-by-raising-interest-rates The party is gonna be over soon.

#37 If proven... on 05.17.17 at 8:03 pm

Plenty of BS flies around tonight…

” a fool who thought he could bully his way over the justice system and intimidate then fire the FBI boss”

“all hell broke loose as it became clear Comey was fired for refusing a Trump directive to back off an inquiry into the dismissal of a Cabinet minister and, likely, the Russian connection”

Serious charges require serious evidence:

If there’s a smoking gun of collusion with Russia and it’s proven that Trump tried to impede the investigation”

Donald may have obstructed justice. If true or proven, he’s history.

Hold on… IF and MAY HAVE?

What IF NOT?

Then sorry, my bad, I made my judgement call too early, I actually did not have any real proof, just he says, she says allegations at the arguably most competitive political environment in our age?

Why?

Because ““Comey,” said NBC News Tuesday night, “has more credibility in Washington than the President.””?

Who is NBC news? How does NBC news measure any of this? The some way how election polls?

“Investors feted Trumpenomics starting in November, figuring his testo-driven, pro-business agenda would goose GDP, cut taxes, boost spending and slash regulations. After four months of governing, none of that is remotely close to happening.”

If you were in the middle of the 100th of the same political circus as Trump, how much of this work would you have done, Garth? Let me guess… the same as Trump… if you were still around, at all.

“Claiming three million illegals voted in the last election or that Obama wiretapped him is right up there with his birther blatherings and Ivanka hiring Chinese workers for $1 an hour.”

You could add your claims from tonight to the mix, as they are as unproven at this moment as these one.

Except Ivanka hiring Chinese workers for $1 an hour, that is quite possibly true.

It must be true if she is playing by the rules of globalist economy. Why wouldn’t she? She didn’t run for office – her father did. If you ask me, it’s better than selling political influence around the globe using a foundation to buy your way into office.

Ivanka is doing exactly what powers the growth of the companies, listed on the exchanges in North America, Europe.

The companies in the type of economy that all your favoured politicians support are doing what Ivanka does.

They are major part of the very ETFs you put in your own and all your clients portfolio to build comfortable wealth.

You need to lie down for a spell. — Garth

#38 Andrew Woburn on 05.17.17 at 8:04 pm

– Why investors should trust hard data more

This economist says he trusts the employment numbers a lot more than GDP figures

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investor-education/why-investors-should-trust-hard-data-more/article34930777/

#39 Tony on 05.17.17 at 8:07 pm

Re: #24 RentYVR on 05.17.17 at 7:22 pm

The summer months (vacation time for the bankers) sometimes includes June not just July and August. If you look at it that way they really only have about two weeks to bring the stock market indexes straight downward until the first week of September.

#40 Nonbuyer on 05.17.17 at 8:08 pm

Seconding #21–if I wanted to read about Trump I’d read virtually anything else. And no, I’m not a supporter, I’m actually Canadian!

#41 Andrew Woburn on 05.17.17 at 8:08 pm

Another reason to be wary of sky-boxes at peak prices.

– Anarchy in the sky: The condo dream becomes a nightmare

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/anarchy-in-the-sky-the-condo-dream-becomes-a-nightmare/article35010827/

#42 Pulp Faction on 05.17.17 at 8:12 pm

I sure hope they don’t impeach Trump…..he’s better entertainment than Netflix or Cable.

#43 Mattl on 05.17.17 at 8:13 pm

I agree completely with this post, can’t believe anyone would panic over a 2% hit when the markets have been so giving.

If you are all in equities you may have taken a bigger hit today then a balanced portfolio but you’ve been bending that balanced portfolio over the past 8 years. I get downside protection for old guys with big bags of money but do you really advocate a balanced portfolio for a guy with 100k and 15k contributions per year? How far behind would that guy be if he started with that same 100+15 in 2010 in 100 equities versus a balanced that produces 6%?

#44 JimmyTwoTeeth on 05.17.17 at 8:18 pm

Re: VREU #6, #9 posts

Maybe I’m just too new to the blog and its commenters, but is there any sources for the information provided by VREU regarding the Victoria/Oak Bay 71% drop? I’ve learned not to blindly trust what the internet says!

Currently renting in Victoria and am interested in real data.

#45 common sense on 05.17.17 at 8:23 pm

2% drop? Yawn.

I bet 2% up and green by Friday close….

Please raise the rates Janet, please.

Show us who is the real boss.

#46 Smartalox on 05.17.17 at 8:24 pm

SPECIAL PROSECUTOR APPOINTED TO INVESTGATE RUSSIA TIES TO TRUMP FLUNKIES!

Meanwhile, Trump flies away for a 9-day tour of the Middle East, taking his closest entourage with him – and likely leaving behind those staffers that don’t get along with him.

That’s a long time to be away when you know that someone’s going to be asking questions and going through your sock drawers, behind your back.

#47 prairie person on 05.17.17 at 8:24 pm

House in our development just went up for sale. 899,000. Asian seller but he obviously doesn’t think he’ll attract other Asian buyers. No 888,888.88. It’ll be interesting to see if he gets his price or close to it. If he does, I may be tempted to put my place up for sale. Nuisance, though. The costs, then I’d have to sell my furniture, find a place to live, I doubt if I could find anything in Victoria, so even without furniture (and the cost of replacing it), there’d still be moving expenses. That’s the problem when you’ve got a nice house, nice location, nice neighbours, have finally found a GP. Where to go? No place on the Coast. The Interior? Maybe East End, Sask. Houses there are, I believe, cheap. Bit out of the way, though. Calgary? Medicine Hat? Swift Current? Go down Hwy 1. Are you tempted? And then there is leaving behind family and friends. Of course, when nothing matters except money, family and friends are expendable.

Would you call your neighbour a ‘black seller’ or a ‘Jewish seller’? Probably not. Then why is his Asian heritage your only descriptor? Think about it. — Garth

#48 Boom Boom Victoria on 05.17.17 at 8:32 pm

#6, 9 VREU

Good to see you are back VREU – we missed your armageddon predictions.

Is that collapse in prices just around the corner? As you posted ad naseum over a year ago?

What? Prices have gone up in Victoria and the surrounding communities by 25% since your prediction? Say it isn’t so…

What? The percentage of foreign buyers went up from 0.6% to 4.7% in the last year – a seven fold increase in the amount of foreign capital flowing into Victoria? Say it isn’t so….

You know, you could save 500 words and just post links to Garth’s previous posts, since you are essentially regurgitating what has been said here for years.

And you could sum up your posts with a simple – ‘sales in the richest part of the Greater Victoria area are down, but prices remain intact; and prices in all the surrounding communities have gone up.’

That was save a lot of time…

#49 TCContrarian on 05.17.17 at 8:35 pm

“Even with Wednesday’s sell off the technicals remain bullish with the S&P 500 in an uptrend and above its rising 200-day moving average. The market’s just 2% off its highs and is up 5.3% even after today’s decline” -GT
********************************************

Yes but…

“…only ten stocks out of that five hundred are responsible for 46% of the entire 2017 rally in this index” [S&P 500].

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-11/just-these-ten-companies-account-half-sps-2017-returns

The indicators I use suggest that the SP 500 is in for a 40-60% decline over the next couple years. Stay the course at your peril. -TCC

Groundless babble. — Garth

#50 'Markets don't care about Trump'? on 05.17.17 at 8:36 pm

They most certainly DO. Until he lives office than they won’t . The move after the election of HIM and his anticipated growth policies

As it turns out he ain’t doing too good with his tedious BS……markets reacted decisively.

#51 Larry Dickman on 05.17.17 at 8:39 pm

Why are Canadians so petulent and anti-American?

Trump will be around for two terms. Guaranteed. He will NOT be impeached and he acted with full legal authority under federal law and the US Constitution when he fired FBI Director James Comey.

Trump is fantastic … greatest American President ever.

#52 Trmpie on 05.17.17 at 8:42 pm

Go Trump go…. seriously

#53 Smoking Man on 05.17.17 at 8:46 pm

Deplorable Dangerous Day.

The Dems are out of options, they did not expect to lose the election, they didn’t even bother to bury the bodies.
This is all or nothing for the globalists and Zumanga’s master plan.

The savage hate spitting out of the mouths of the lefty, schizophrenic, corporate-globalist, media taking place in the USA right now will lead to civil war.

They can’t back down now, they feel the momentum in their favor and this is their last chance to avoid prison.

Trump won because regular folks have enough of the deep state. I and the weirdos in cities.

If Trump is impeached by the deep state you can expect at leased 10 thousand heavily armed patriots, laid-off coal workers, steel workers, working class, straight white men and their woman who have been the but end of every Hollywood joke for far too many years, while their families starve.

These men have no future under Trump, but they had hope. Under Dems. They have nothing to lose and will take the fight to Washington.

According to my Herdomomics 101, they will take to Washington, with hollow points, grenade, automatic assault rifles. Some in the police and the military will join them. Antifa will show up then run for their lives.

Arrest Soros.

#54 Fred on 05.17.17 at 8:48 pm

But seriously, anyone that concentrates their wealth into a single asset class deserves to get burnt until they learn their lesson. Market tuition.

……..

wow, you sound like a very loving person

many ways to skin a cat. Some folks arent comfortable with equities, bonds- they like tangible assets. And some are VERY good at using real estate for investment purposes. Don’t be so intolerant

#55 MPAC on 05.17.17 at 9:00 pm

@#19 Seattle

I’m in the exact same situation…50% cash & 50% equities/bonds.. Good problem to have have I guess.

#56 data on 05.17.17 at 9:06 pm

#6 Victoria Real Estate Update

I am not sure what part of Victoria you live or what on earth you are talking about. I have friends who are making MILLIONS selling in Uplands and Oakbay to Chinese, just because volumes are down, doesn’t mean people are not making money or prices can’t continue to go higher. When inventory is low, of course sales are low? Now with no tax coming to Victoria, more money will flow towards luxury properties.

You are stuck in some dark world, Victoria has been a consistent money maker and never has it gone down for too long.

You should buy before you are priced out. Good luck renting if you can find a place.

#57 common sense on 05.17.17 at 9:14 pm

Pretty sad state of Canadian affairs when the USD falls against all currencies today except the mighty Canadian Dollar.

Poloz Heaven.

#58 dakkie on 05.17.17 at 9:20 pm

Liar Loans That COLLAPSED U.S. Housing Bubble Exposed in Canada!

http://investmentwatchblog.com/liar-loans-that-collapsed-u-s-housing-bubble-exposed-in-canada/

#59 Pete on 05.17.17 at 9:23 pm

If Trump got impeached now, then those voting for him last year really made a great choice, because Mike Pence or Paul Ryan would just take over the presidency. Both men are sensible leaders.

I don’t like Trump. Trump is impulsive, boastful, poor-mannered, ultra-selfish and mean. Besides, he is chummy with Russian dictator Putin. But he has many good ideas and there is no way I would vote for Hiliary.

So the American people made the right choice voting for Trump. I would too.

But I also think Garth needs to tone down the politics and focus on how the housing bubble in Canada will burst.

Politics affects finances. It will remain a topic here. Deal with it. — Garth

#60 conan on 05.17.17 at 9:33 pm

Much more then Trump to worry about here. Pence will fix f all, and will probably freak the markets out as well. The trick is to watch out for organised institutional selling.

The World is now very aware that the POTUS is a moron. Pence is a religious whack job who would ponder Armageddon, so that “Sky Daddy”comes down and saves the day.

Phaneuf……much more then a pylon.

#61 Pete from St. Cesaire on 05.17.17 at 9:38 pm

You’re right Smokey,
Remember the Dems were used by the powers-that-be, and like all favourites of the PTB they eventually get thrown under the bus when their usefulness is depleted. Right now they only have support amongst themselves (and the snowflake-lefties), but there are legions of them. They ARE the Deep State, but they will prove to be no match to the Freemasonic Powers-that-be who control Trump and the money supply. A civil war is ripe for the starting.

#62 Doug in London on 05.17.17 at 9:40 pm

I’ve been outside all day, oblivious all that time to what’s been happening on the markets. On the 6 PM news and now here I get news of the stock markets taking a dive. I log on to my investment accounts and what do I see? NOTHING! Where’s this big drop I’ve heard about? What, a wussy 2% drop is something to worry about? I would like to see a REAL buying opportunity!

#63 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 9:42 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

O.K ,so here is another one that I had already showed you guys on the blog and now we have confirmation .

May 2016 paid 1.6

March 2017 sold 1.499

Loss of over 6% and with closing ,puts it closer to 15% on a cant lose house in less than a year.

Most of my cases bought in early 2016 and for one reason or another didn’t have deep enough pockets to weather this shallow but stubborn correction…

M42BC

2273 GRAVELEY ST VANCOUVER
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMVlVSw==

#64 will on 05.17.17 at 9:43 pm

#18 Nonplused

“Nobody believes what they see on TV anymore and neither should you.”

Yup. I don’t even have a tv but i’m with ya bro.

#65 Cottingham a bargain on 05.17.17 at 9:45 pm

#52 Fred on 05.17.17 at 8:48 pm
But seriously, anyone that concentrates their wealth into a single asset class deserves to get burnt until they learn their lesson. Market tuition.

……..

wow, you sound like a very loving person

many ways to skin a cat. Some folks arent comfortable with equities, bonds- they like tangible assets. And some are VERY good at using real estate for investment purposes. Don’t be so intolerant
——

You’re Italian right Fred? Ya .. I can spot the “brick lickers” a mile away and yes takes one to know one lol

#66 Smoking Man on 05.17.17 at 9:51 pm

#55 common sense on 05.17.17 at 9:14 pm
Pretty sad state of Canadian affairs when the USD falls against all currencies today except the mighty Canadian Dollar.

Poloz Heaven.
..

Nothing to do with Poloz. Currency traders are betting on a CAD housing crash. They don’t know the herd up here.

Clueless liberals that have no deductive reasoning skills.

I don’t see a crash when we have so many people with mental disorders.

#67 will on 05.17.17 at 9:52 pm

#26 Marcus

” in the end the Multi-polar world will win.”

Agreed. No one here says it but the usa is not only in decline, it will soon be superceded by GDPs abroad. So the part of Garth’s advice to be invested in international stuff is good advice going forward. Though long term. Love.

#68 Balmuto on 05.17.17 at 9:54 pm

“#26 Marcus on 05.17.17 at 7:32 pm
The real funny thing is that Trump will go for 8 years. Such a strange world we live in now. Fake news. Innuendo by the hour thrown out like bread to the pigeons. This is an internal war between the Globalists and the multi-polar nationalists. It will get ugly but in the end the Multi-polar world will win.”

No, the nationalists will lose in the end. Nationalism has no place in the 21st century. It’s all about what you as an individual can bring to the table now. You’re mad because your unskilled job doesn’t pay very well and you think it should pay more because you’re from some supposedly “great” nation? Nobody cares. All markets, including the employment market, are global now and the sooner we all get used to this reality the better.

#69 Scully on 05.17.17 at 9:55 pm

Wow! Just wow. There are a lot of crazy comments on the blog tonight (tonight? Lol!) I don’t know what the Trumpsters are thinking, but to borrow a popular quote – I’m thinking how fluid the border is between crazy and interesting, and how hard it is to decide who belongs where :)

#70 [email protected] on 05.17.17 at 9:57 pm

Just overheard a group of high school kids comparing their house worth. I think we are way past the shoe shine boy stage.

#71 earthboundmisfit on 05.17.17 at 10:01 pm

@49 Larry Dickman

Please promise you won’t breed.

#72 Rich Young on 05.17.17 at 10:03 pm

BUBBLE BUBBLE WHERE ARE THOU … EVERY BLEEPING WHERE…. and they will pop. Auto Sales falling and used car prices low will rise. All the fools buying stocks at these levels deserve the pain when she pops. More foreclosures around me in Calgary yet prices stay afloat. At some point buyers will no longer help Grandma retire from her $20,000 bungalow that now fetches $450,000. What a joke… Who is the greater fool… the one buying a house at this price or the one buying AMZN at 100x earnings and no dividend? or TSLA with no earnings and valued higher than the big 4

#73 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 10:15 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW

These guys didn’t fair as bad as the first two cases tonight, but I will put it up because a lot of people seem to think that everyone is making money out in Surrey because it is more affordable.

Feb 2016 paid 700k

March 2107 sold 707k

And so I guess after expenses they lost around 5%

I will keep taking off 7% roughly as advised by multiple people,maybe at some stage when we get into the bigger ones that are coming down the pipeline we can talk about opportunity cost and such but I will leave that for the smarter people on the blog.

I just sweep up the sawdust around here…

M42BC

9378 123A ST SURREY

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA3ODNRNg==

#74 VS on 05.17.17 at 10:18 pm

#64 Smoking Man on 05.17.17 at 9:51 pm
#55 common sense on 05.17.17 at 9:14 pm
Pretty sad state of Canadian affairs when the USD falls against all currencies today except the mighty Canadian Dollar.

Poloz Heaven.
..

Nothing to do with Poloz. Currency traders are betting on a CAD housing crash. They don’t know the herd up here.

Clueless liberals that have no deductive reasoning skills.

I don’t see a crash when we have so many people with mental disorders.
=====================
so you do not expect loonie heading to 70c?

#75 Pete on 05.17.17 at 10:21 pm

Home Capital update May 17th

deposits dropped $23 million today, while liquidity remained unchanged at $880 million, meaning they are not making new loans.

My estimate is that their total deposits have dropped 20% from March 28. Washington Mutual Bank was seized by US authorities after deposits dropped 9% in 10 days. What is the threshold in Canada? Home Capital deposits will drop more in the weeks ahead.

#76 Mark on 05.17.17 at 10:23 pm

“Nothing to do with Poloz. Currency traders are betting on a CAD housing crash.”

A housing crash should send the CAD$ up, up, up. Crashing loan demand is almost always substantially deflationary.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.17 at 10:28 pm

@#8 TrumpocalypseTwenty going on Seventeen

“I am preparing contingency plans for the possibility that a modern civil war may also break out in America, very soon.

Prepare…………..”
****

You must ROCK at parties.
Pontificating on the benefits of wetwipes vs toilet paper…..Chenmical toilets vs buckets….canned beans vs dried prunes ….. bottled water vs bottled pee……
Enjoy the underground bus and the mouldy bunks

When the world ends in about 3 billion years……think of us poor “unprepared” schleps that went happily into the night

#78 Darren on 05.17.17 at 10:34 pm

The markets went all the way down to levels not seen in….3 weeks. This is not a story, it is a rounding error blown out of proportion by the sky-is-falling media.

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.17 at 10:34 pm

@#28 Brian
” I’ll come back in a decade and nothing will have changed.”

******

Promise?

#80 simon shack on 05.17.17 at 10:35 pm

#62 will on 05.17.17 at 9:43 pm
#18 Nonplused

“Nobody believes what they see on TV anymore and neither should you.”

Yup. I don’t even have a tv but i’m with ya bro.

tv is a weapon of mass distraction

#81 Smoking Man on 05.17.17 at 10:37 pm

I’m no patsy.

Shaw bros and old man. Are that stupid that you haven’t figured out I can read your minds whole being hammered out of my mind.

Follow Jim Stojsin on linked in. I’m just starting.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.17 at 10:38 pm

@fake News, Nonplused, BobC, If Proven, etc.etc,etc.

********

When did all you Deplorables with paranoid delusions of persecution learn to type?

#83 Vundo on 05.17.17 at 10:38 pm

“Never, ever listen to people who envy your youth and freedom.”

https://twitter.com/tangelaekhoff/status/864666768786296833

#84 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 10:39 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

Here’s another case of junior Pink Snow but the reason I will share this one is because it is a Vancouver condo and also because they bought in 2015 and still took a small loss.

Nov 2105 paid 375k

April 2017 sold 384k

And so after holding for a year and a half they took roughly a 5% loss after closing…

M42BC

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMUczOA==

#85 Jungle on 05.17.17 at 10:40 pm

I sold my stock picks yesterday and rebalanced into ETFS and bonds.

Seems this blog had an influence for preaching balance and diversification.

I feel the ZEN and no stress. Much better now.

#86 Smoking Man on 05.17.17 at 10:43 pm

72 VS on 05.17.17 at 10:18 pm
#64 Smoking Man on 05.17.17 at 9:51 pm
#55 common sense on 05.17.17 at 9:14 pm
Pretty sad state of Canadian affairs when the USD falls against all currencies today except the mighty Canadian Dollar.

Poloz Heaven.
..

Nothing to do with Poloz. Currency traders are betting on a CAD housing crash. They don’t know the herd up here.

Clueless liberals that have no deductive reasoning skills.

I don’t see a crash when we have so many people with mental disorders.
=====================
so you do not expect loonie heading to 70c?

..
Self destruction, I’m un employable. Send me some loot and I will give the future with desert.

#87 Chaddywack on 05.17.17 at 10:43 pm

@ flop

Love these confirmed pink reports. I’ve been showing them to my extended family, but even the numbers in black and white don’t convince them that prices are starting to drop in places close to Vancouver or in the city itself.

Granted, 1.5M for that shack on Graveley is pretty high still, but that proves a buyer took a loss.

I think eventually they will be convinced…..maybe around salmon spawning season.

#88 WUL on 05.17.17 at 10:46 pm

# 58 conan

Agree on all three points you made. Especially your point on Phaneuf. He’s rockin. Nice for me having watched him many times at the Saddledome.

The 2003 NHL draft is a constant source of fascination for me. Dion was 9th overall. Scouts cannot scout. Check out the choices at 20, 45, 49, 168, 205 and 245. Lots of scouts should have been fired.

Now, returning to topic, Calgary real estate is in fine shape. SFDs but not condos.

#89 Pete on 05.17.17 at 10:57 pm

Sometimes I think Trump is right calling CNN “fake news”. There are fake news in Canada too. For instance, Home Capital HISA dropped from $125.5 million to $125.4 million on May 12. That is hardly a drop, of course, because it has dropped 95% and how much lower can it go. However, on that same day, GIC and Oaken saving dropped a combined $50 million. But all the media headline that day was “Home Capital Deposits Drop Stopped”.

So-called”Liberals” and “Progressives” are very much like the Communists. They do not tolerate anyone who disagree with them. Communists believe in creating a perfect society for everyone where everyone is equal and there is no exploitation. Their cause is so grand and noble that anyone who disagree does not deserve a space on this earth. And under Stalin, 30 million did lose their spaces on earth.

#90 The Patriot on 05.17.17 at 10:57 pm

#7 I’m Stupid
“Nothing is more exciting than watching amateurs losing their shirts.”

————–

What is wrong with you? Rejoicing in the misfortune of others. Shame on you and your wicked wishes. Instead of consoling your insecurities, try and be supportive of others “taking their shot at the world”, (whether it is sound or not). I have more respect for an individual who takes a stand and stumbles, than to never take a stand at all.

#91 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 10:58 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW

Another house in Surrey that didn’t catch fire.

These guys pretty much broke even by the looks of it ,depending on if they put any money into a renovation or not.

The official numbers that we know are…

May 2016 paid 888k

Feb 2017 sold 937k

And so as I said on paper looks like they made no money but lived to fight another day…

M42BC

8234 151A ST SURREY
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA3N1g1Ug==

#92 Muttley O'Toole on 05.17.17 at 11:03 pm

Smoking man # 51
“If Trump is impeached by the deep state you can expect at leased 10 thousand heavily armed patriots, laid-off coal workers, steel workers, working class, straight white men and their woman who have been the but end of every Hollywood joke for far too many years, while their families starve.”
Actually, I reckon on the 3% showing up. If (approx) 60 million voted for Trump then 3% = 1,800,000 armed to the teeth pissed off Americans will visit Washington with evil intent.
I still think I would be more immediately concerned with the actions (or non actions) of a former snow board instructor/drama teacher than those of a successful business man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLdEYw3ginA

#93 Pete from St. Cesaire on 05.17.17 at 11:04 pm

Nationalism has no place in the 21st century. It’s all about what you as an individual can bring to the table now.
——————————————
Nationalism is the only thing that can preserve your way of life. There are plenty of people elsewhere in the world that can bring a lot more to the table than the average Canadian can. A robust birthrate for one. An end of nationalism is the end of national borders. No more Canada, simple as that. No more Canadian laws. No more Canadian charter of human rights. We can’t have nasty old nationalism wielding Canadian values over the values of others, that wouldn’t be right. Canada represents about 0.4% of the world’s population. We need to learn our place in the world. We need to stop prosecuting our people for doing things that would not be considered illegal amongst the majority of the worlds population. We can’t enforce our ideals on others that would be nationalism, nationalism is wrong, Canadian authority is illegitimate.

#94 Lefty on 05.17.17 at 11:04 pm

Interesting technical analysis regarding Canadian Banks, etc. by a technician I have followed for some time. He’s had some damned fine calls over the years.

https://rambus1.com/2017/05/17/oh-canada-a-cold-wind-blows-from-the-great-white-north/

#95 Jim Stojsin on 05.17.17 at 11:04 pm

There is no way in China I’m giving credit to smoking man , my alter ego for the greatest book ever written that no one bought. It’s still early

#96 espressobob on 05.17.17 at 11:11 pm

Pullbacks in the indices provide the best opportunities any contrarian investor could hope for.

Bring it on.

#97 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 11:15 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW

I am not cherry picking any of these ,just posting them in the order that they are in my folder.I have some ones with bigger losses coming down the pipeline.

These guys that bought this duplex in Burnaby seem to be in the same boat as the last guys in Surrey.How big the loss depends on the extracurricular activities.

Here’s what we know…

Jan 2016 paid 760k

Mar 2017 sold 799k

So as you can tell they managed to squeeze enough out to not take a major hit.

Maybe just a dry cleaning bill to remove the peanut butter stains…

M42BC

4916 NORFOLK ST BURNABY
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBKMVpDUw==

#98 NoName on 05.17.17 at 11:36 pm

I was reading a bit what could/might happen with DT, will he be impiched or not… at this point is likely that he will be 3rd president impeached probably partially as bill was. note nixon wasn’t impeached he quit.

if he stays, here is a problem that he boxed him self in corner, every time president aproval is below 50% his parti loses an average 35 seats in a house. if dem get house its game over it will be investigation on everything and anything. republicans are $#!7!n6 them selves with every new fake news they know whats coming. and that thing going aroind that ivanka is hiring chinase for 1$ an hour
to make he prodict, doesnt sit well with go amerika go. russia thing is so yesterday…
dems need 24 seats for house if i got math right

—-

@SM
According to my Herdomomics 101, they will take to Washington, with hollow points, grenade, automatic assault rifles. Some in the police and the military will join them. Antifa will show up then run for their lives.

you got that part wrong when they (regular folks) health insurance rises iven more than wht they are paying now or just simply they have to dropped because primium went the roof of the roof, deplorable will be there to provide cover for atifa, not other way around.
but you are on to something with that GS guy everione i know dont like him, dont know why

—–

how about betting on impichmed or not bill got crushed in house but senate saved him, so donny might be ok, but republicans are in a big trouble in couple of years

—-

DT rating
39%
everyone hated dems now days
dem party rating
40%
(whats wrong with this picture)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/210725/democratic-party-image-dips-gop-ratings-stable.aspx

#99 The Wet Coast on 05.17.17 at 11:37 pm

My family and I came home to Vancouver in the RE lunacy that was a year ago. We placed one bid on a house that listed for $1.188 and sold for $1.388 in round 2 of the process; the folks that bid $1.388 did so out of the gate. I then convinced my wife to rent. Her comment tonight was do you see what $1.388 will get us now! So glad we didn’t get that other house. Across the lower mainland we are seeing listing creep, much more bang for your dollar. This is phase II of a correction. Phase III starts when the guys who thought hey could sell for more find themselves competing with much nicer homes. Rinse, repeat. This is why RE is so sticky on the way down. It takes time for this process to shake out.

#100 paulo on 05.17.17 at 11:42 pm

whats the big deal? markets logged significant gains based on the Trump Sizzle when he got the office.
looks like the sizzle is turning into smoke,not the hoped for Steak. so its a give back 2 points is chump change
personally still think he will get tired of the political BS and quite,having checked off a big item in his bucket list.
life will go on the sky will not fall. if you have a well balanced portfolio you have nothing to worry about except the important things in life at this time of year: is the beer cold enough, have enough steaks for the barbie!

#101 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 11:57 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW

These guys like the last few cases didn’t take a major hit,approximately 5 % loss after closing ,if avoiding renovation costs.

Here’s what we know…

Feb 2016 955k

April 2017 980k

White Rock …Surrey ….call it what you will, it didn’t help these guys make a profit…

M42BC

1308 STEVENS ST WHITE ROCK
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA3NU42OA==

#102 paulo on 05.17.17 at 11:57 pm

#92 lefty
defiantly interesting,showing what most of us cold northerners already know: the gigs up for real estate
time to plan for the unwinding and substantial fall out that will effect the broader economy and become painfully clear by summers end. defiantly a risk off/defensive environment
in addition to your steaks hot dogs and burgers on the barbie we can add a side of speculators ,greater fools,and a number of financial institutions that will get smoked.

#103 Life has consequences on 05.17.17 at 11:58 pm

Wow Garth, great work kicking the hornet’s nest with these trump comments. The folks here pretending to support him are pure comedy gold. No one could possible be that stupid.

#104 Deplorable Dude on 05.17.17 at 11:58 pm

Yawn….get back to me when these newspapers have something that doesn’t come from an anonymous source…or any one of the multiple Russian investigations’ produce a morsel of evidence….they have ZIP after nearly a year.

Meanwhile I spent my tax refund on some US small caps wrf on a nice 2% dip.

#105 WUL on 05.18.17 at 12:16 am

If you are inclined to form a rich, deep and rewarding relationship with a lawyer, buy a condo. Unfortunately, the rewards flow in one direction.

#106 Karma on 05.18.17 at 12:20 am

#71 For those about to flop… on 05.17.17 at 10:15 pm
“CONFIRMED PINK SNOW

These guys didn’t fair as bad as the first two cases tonight, but I will put it up because a lot of people seem to think that everyone is making money out in Surrey because it is more affordable.

Feb 2016 paid 700k

March 2107 sold 707k

And so I guess after expenses they lost around 5%

I will keep taking off 7% roughly as advised by multiple people…”

I think 7% is too high if it’s not originally a presale. 2% on initial purchase and ~3% on sale. I suggest you estimate a total of 5%, unless it’s well over $2m. If it’s a presale, then perhaps use 8%, unless it’s below $500k, so the GST has a rebate.

Just my two cents.

Keep up the good work.

#107 Agulbino on 05.18.17 at 12:42 am

I went to the first ever – International Real Estate Marketplace Conference…. May 16-18th at the Toronto Convention centre..I was present therefrom 3pm to 6pm and there was approx 34 exhibitors and about 5 to 7 attendees! UNREAL. I am not kidding – It almost felt like I was the only attendee there and all the vendors were bored and or playing on their devices.

#108 Fake News on 05.18.17 at 12:50 am

#17 Joseph R. on 05.17.17 at 7:04 pm
#3 Fake News on 05.17.17 at 6:35 pm
Fake News drop in the DOW but what do you expect in the world of lefty libtards.

—————————————————

No. Today’s drop in the Indexes (DOW, S&P and TSX) are real and are caused by some political instability, not economical fundamentals; nothing to worry about if you are balanced.

The “Fake News” of the day (the alt-right talking points) are the conspiracy theories about the murder of Seth Rich. So bad, that even the very conservative Washington Examiner says it’s bunk:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/one-last-time-that-seth-rich-story-is-garbage/article/2623382

______________________

Yes you are right. The fact that Seth Rich gave Wikileaks info on the Clintons and was murdered in a robbery where nothing was “robbed” from his dead body is purely fake news.

#109 Fake News on 05.18.17 at 12:52 am

#101 Life has consequences on 05.17.17 at 11:58 pm
Wow Garth, great work kicking the hornet’s nest with these trump comments. The folks here pretending to support him are pure comedy gold. No one could possible be that stupid.

________________________________

Yeah? And how is the part time drama teacher working out for ya? Are you looking forward to a 1.5 trillion dollar debt? You liberals all think the same.

#110 Basil Fawlty on 05.18.17 at 1:00 am

If the US economy is so strong, why is Ford laying off 20,000 people?

In addition, why did Obama have to increase the US federal debt by $10T.

Finally, why was GDP growth only .7% in the first quarter?

#111 Brydle604 on 05.18.17 at 1:02 am

#11 Duck Duck Goose on 05.17.17 at 6:53 pm
Canada’s Middle Class Is on the Brink of Ruin
https://thewalrus.ca/canadas-middle-class-is-on-the-brink-of-ruin/

This problem can be summed up quite simply.

The Law of Holes.

If you are in one stop digging!

#112 For those about to flop... on 05.18.17 at 1:11 am

CONFIRMED PINK DRAW.

Let’s call this one a draw ,but I will post it so anyone on the blog out that way can see what’s going on.

This Coquitlam townhome is relatively new ,but the best these guys could do was break even after expenses.

What we know…

Jan 2016 paid 798k

Feb 2017 sold 855k

Probably the best result I have seen for the homeowner tonight,sold over assessment so they did the best they could do.

Maybe they are now renting it….

M42BC

80-1430 DAYTON ST COQUITLAM
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBaUUNZTQ==

#113 Rentin on 05.18.17 at 1:22 am

Always look at the housing market every now and then. Just for fun I switched to list by price and started at high; enjoy!!:

Bought 2014 for 9.5M. Likely 3M in renos now listed for 30M.

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMFVWVg==

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17469274/2106-SW-MARINE-DRIVE-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V6P6B5

When the house flipping has engulfed the high end market, it’s over. A person that can afford to buy this house cannot be so frivilous with their money to walk into this trap. That person has made many right choices in order to be able to afford this place.

We shall wait and see.

#114 Myra Andrews on 05.18.17 at 1:25 am

Posted today by Vancouver realtor PaulB

New 253
Price Change 47
Sold 152
TI: 8609 (total inventory)

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

#115 Ronaldo on 05.18.17 at 1:53 am

#76 Darren on 05.17.17 at 10:34 pm

The markets went all the way down to levels not seen in….3 weeks. This is not a story, it is a rounding error blown out of proportion by the sky-is-falling media.
————————————————————-
Agree totally. Markets often go down 2% in intra day trading only to end the day even. Likely be up 2% tomorrow. Nothing to see here is right.

#116 Steerage steward on 05.18.17 at 2:12 am

Didn’t notice, until I came here. Markets hardest in 9 months.

Didn’t chang a thing, of course all my holes are still in place

Entertain walie though

#117 Steerage steward on 05.18.17 at 2:15 am

Entertaining though isn’t it? Sens might win the cup

#118 VREU Fan on 05.18.17 at 2:16 am

Unlike the realtors who respond to your posts I really appreciate them. I particularly like the fact that your comments are based on actual undisputable facts rather than biased opinions.

#119 Steerage steward on 05.18.17 at 2:19 am

Seems somebody wants Canada to have a happy birthday

#120 Skip Breakfast on 05.18.17 at 5:27 am

Oh my goodness. Garth, I can smell the Kool-Aid on your breath all the way from here in the South Pacific. I give up. Our fearless blog-master is just as deluded about reality as the moisters.

#121 willworkforpickles on 05.18.17 at 5:48 am

When amateur knee jerk investors are reminded or suddenly realize low key Pence takes over if Trump disintegrates, markets will recover their tiny losses.
If Trump averts disaster and impeachment takes a back seat with the media, the markets should see more volatility as the only thing certain with trump is uncertainty .
The big disasters…the real disasters still lay ahead.

#122 Stock Picker on 05.18.17 at 6:22 am

DELETED

#123 traderJim on 05.18.17 at 7:24 am

Comey testified under oath on May 3, 2017 that he was not pressured to stop ANY investigations.

Some people calling for impeachment based on an anonymous source saying a memo exists stating otherwise.

Some people would say those basing their beliefs on anonymous, alleged, never-seen memos rather than testimony before congress are as bad as any conspiracy theorists.

Don’t have much to do today, eh? — Garth

#124 MF on 05.18.17 at 7:28 am

Lol Yeah right.

First off,

-The Dow fell 100 points, while being at an all time high of 20,000 (who cares).
-The Dow is still up bigly after Trump’s election (did we all forget?)
-During Obama’s presidency, we had multiple “corrections/mini crashes”..yet that was not his fault right? Nothing was Obama’s fault!
-The Republicans control congress. Zero chance of impeachment
-No question the left leaning media is playing a huge part in this whole saga. That was the lesson of the last US election: The media is biased, and has zero credibility.
-Stocks are overvalued anyways. We are still awaiting the effects of years of QE and low interest rates. A massive correction -regardless of who is in office, most likely Trump because of timing- is in the cards at some point.

Hey at least I don’t hear people blaming Bush anymore.

MF

So much rationalization, so little time. — Garth

#125 traderJim on 05.18.17 at 7:39 am

#64 Smoking Man

“Nothing to do with Poloz. Currency traders are betting on a CAD housing crash. They don’t know the herd up here.

Clueless liberals that have no deductive reasoning skills.

I don’t see a crash when we have so many people with mental disorders.”

Hahahaha it’s funny because IT’S TRUE

#126 traderJim on 05.18.17 at 7:43 am

DELETED

#127 traderJim on 05.18.17 at 7:49 am

I am watching E02 on realtor.ca as it’s an area I know well and one where I sold a property last year (so yes I am hoping prices will crash and prove that I was right to sell).

So far, reality is a very similar place to mine (same street, same size, etc.) is asking a full 20% more than what I sold for (which was a record high up to that date).

Now the place I am watching hasn’t sold…so hard to draw any firm conclusions, but they have not dropped the price either.

#128 Figure it out on 05.18.17 at 7:54 am

“Thus, the Donald may have obstructed justice. If true or proven, he’s history.”

Garth, please, for the love of Pete, STOP making predictions — especially about the future. Last year you told us that the guy was “unelectable” and look how that turned out.

Also, if you’ve got a minute, how about fixing Ryan’s picture for the weekend posts. The technical explanation is that the website sends out that it’s wider (for its height) than it actually is. Which results in him looking like a fathead, or an ex-linebacker. Unless you’re doing that on purpose, in which case carry on, I guess.

#129 traderJim on 05.18.17 at 7:54 am

p.s. For the record, the place I sold was a newish development in the beach, so there are lots of comparables.

The guy saying RE prices have not risen since 2013 sure as hell must be talking about somewhere outside of my area.

Virtually identical properties to mine (same floorplan, street etc.) sold for about 50% less in 2013. I tracked prices every year, and with the exception of one small blip, prices went up in a straight line, and are clearly dramatically higher now than in 2013. Again, for identical properties.

#130 Smoking Man on 05.18.17 at 8:20 am

The most dangerous too words for people, especially journalist in today’s upside down world.

Cultural Appropration.

Translation. Pen any creative thought not sanctioned by the councel of the insanity sociaty, you will lose your job. Be black listed and tossed into the ocean with buckets of shark bait, and no life jacket.

#131 traderJim on 05.18.17 at 8:39 am

Not sure why Garth dislikes President Trump so much. If Trump visited Belfountain he’d definitely order an extra scoop of ice cream.

The post is about Trump’s affect on markets, not him. Even you little holy soldiers should be able to glean that. — Garth

#132 Wrk.dover on 05.18.17 at 8:48 am

As I remember, back when Nafta was being proposed, Mexico had a population bomb of young people coming into the workforce and no work. The theory went that we would have to help them out in some manner of welfare or another, so free trade, thus locating some factories there was an easy fix.

The corporations went over board to help!

I also recall Cretien announcing a trade deal with China that amounted to $900 of goods purchased per Canadian.

Only $900 now? No!

All we need now, is a new cause for the corporations to step up to so vigorously that will reboot Canada.

150th birthday not as exiting as 100th, from my where I sit. In 1967 Canada rocked! Now we roll. Over.

#133 Keith in Calgary on 05.18.17 at 8:48 am

http://www.calgarysun.com/2017/05/17/ndp-acknowledges-flood-threat-to-calgary

Looks like snow conditions in the mountains are worse than in 2013, when Calgary was hit with the largest flood in a century which devastated real estate in many city districts.

That explains the neighbourhood of Elbow Park (right in ground zero) having a bunch of properties that have suddenly been listed as a result. This was the area of multi-million dollar properties that were hit last time in the flood. In Alberta these properties are now flagged on the land title that they have been flooded out.

#123 Trader Jim……

As to Garth disliking trump…..he is a dyed in the wool left leaning liberal…….always has been, always will be. You need no other explanation.

Liberals are the pallbearers of societies.

FYI, Keith: I ran to be federal leader of the Progressive Conservative Party. That was the true face of caring conservativism. — Garth

#134 John of Grant on 05.18.17 at 9:12 am

#74 Mark

“Nothing to do with Poloz. Currency traders are betting on a CAD housing crash.”

A housing crash should send the CAD$ up, up, up. Crashing loan demand is almost always substantially deflationary.
——————————————–

Yes, deflationary. Not to mention that crashing rental and home prices are deflationary. Ultimately sending interest rates and the CAD dollar down, down, down.

#135 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.18.17 at 9:18 am

What proof do you have that Trump colluded with Russian hackers to “throw the presidential election”?

Can you provide one shred of actual evidence? Please and thanks.

:)

#136 Dan.t on 05.18.17 at 9:18 am

Canadians are brainwashed and most are financial illiterates, but thanks to a government created housing bubble, are able to borrow themselves into oblivion…

since 95% and brainwashed to know for a fact that houses only go up and up and up and then up some more, there will never be a shortage of greater fools until credit restrictions are no longer fraudulent and rates rise.

#137 Tony on 05.18.17 at 9:20 am

123 traderJim on 05.18.17 at 7:39 am
#64 Smoking Man

“Nothing to do with Poloz. Currency traders are betting on a CAD housing crash. They don’t know the herd up here.

Clueless liberals that have no deductive reasoning skills.

I don’t see a crash when we have so many people with mental disorders.”

Hahahaha it’s funny because IT’S TRUE

Yes that us true but it was true in the US. Prices can not go higher since mortgage fraud is hard to get. Now speculators need to get out since they can not get more credit to cover their cash flow negative “investment” . With prices dropping they are in a panic to get out or face losing everything.

#138 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 05.18.17 at 9:32 am

At our trading desk we are watching for the SPY to cross 2331 and the 200 DMA for signs of continued bearishness.

This is why investors should be weary of ETF’s, there is NO DOWNSIDE protection in a downturn. Actively managed (non-ETF) funds offer this to reduce risk/downside.

Good opportunity to pickup non-US assets as the DXY (USD) is currently seen as a risk currency.

Watch the VIX and YEN. When they stop going up, it’s an early indicator of when to buy in again.

#139 Mortgage Fraud on 05.18.17 at 9:34 am

This is just starting: Vancouver foreclosures have tripled.

https://twitter.com/MortgageMark/status/864854764428722176

Canada’s Middle Class Is on the Brink of Ruin:

https://thewalrus.ca/canadas-middle-class-is-on-the-brink-of-ruin/#.WRz4Jw8A6HY.twitter

Silence deafening in Pickering/Ajax RE market:

https://twitter.com/REWoman/status/863145546684530689

#140 Tater on 05.18.17 at 9:36 am

#68 [email protected] on 05.17.17 at 9:57 pm
Just overheard a group of high school kids comparing their house worth. I think we are way past the shoe shine boy stage.
——————————————————————–

A few weeks ago my 5 year old daughter asked what a walk-in closet is. I knew then we had to be near a top.

#141 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 05.18.17 at 9:39 am

No smart investor has 40% in bonds. — Garth

Quite the claim!

Proof? Reference? Or just prattle?

#142 Leo Trollstoy on 05.18.17 at 9:44 am

The primary purpose of the media is to sell eyeballs for ad dollars. Hyperbole around Trump is currently the best way to achieve that. Trump hasn’t really done anything remarkable for a President.

#143 Tony on 05.18.17 at 9:47 am

Predict another 300 plus point down day for the DOW and a 75 point plus down day for the NASDAQ today.

#144 White Crock BC on 05.18.17 at 9:50 am

AB Boxster on 05.17.17 at 7:02 pm

With Trump, at least you had a leader that could not be bought.

———————-

Really?

How about : The Mercers, The NRA and good old Putin.

#145 TSX on 05.18.17 at 9:51 am

Free money

Breaking through its 200 MVA

Who knew ? :)

#146 Another Deckchair on 05.18.17 at 9:56 am

@131 Keiths post;

“FYI, Keith: I ran to be federal leader of the Progressive Conservative Party. That was the true face of caring conservativism. — Garth”

Scientists(*) have a step “Literature Review – doing Due Diligence” – where one discovers things so one does not look like a fool. I wish we all did this.

(I did this on “Garth Turner” before I started posting, btw. Very interesting man, and one who should be respected)

(*note – one place where I worked changed; projects had to have a “business” feel to them, as MBA’s were brought in to change the place, and “Literature Review” was declared a useless step. The desire to look like a fool permeates society as we know it – sigh)

#147 Ex Pat Canuck on 05.18.17 at 10:06 am

Or, what if the Trump thing had nothing to do with the market swoon, and it’s just a coincidence that this overbought tired bull has to lay down a while for a rest, while the bear wakes up and starts feeling his oats. What if?

#148 Dan.t on 05.18.17 at 10:08 am

Ok, my last post read like I just drank a 6 pack of beer. I mean until credit is actually tightened and fraud in the system stops, and money has value, Canadians will continue to borrow their way into debt servitude.

This could easily end and crash down hard but government does not want the party to end and banks will continue to loan out money to anyone with a pulse with the reassurance that they simply can’t lose . That is the only way things are still hanging on by a thread.

A mass bailout will happen just to screw over those who didn’t chug the coolaid and enslave themselves with massive debt. One way or another you will get screwed.

Privatize all the profits and force the losses on the tax payers.

Wait for it.

#149 A Reply to #36 If proven... on 05.18.17 at 10:12 am

You need to lie down for a spell. — Garth

Hilarious, Garth! Maybe even remind this deplorable to take his high blood pressure pills, or consult a doctor.

(I come to this blog for the issues, but stay for the laughs.)

#150 traderJim on 05.18.17 at 10:22 am

“Don’t have much to do today, eh? — Garth”

Actually I do, I’m just waiting for my hard-working but late-sleeping workman to show up.

I’m hard at work Making Muskoka Great Again.

#151 A Reply to #58 conan on 05.18.17 at 10:37 am

“The World is now very aware that the POTUS is a moron.”

I think your comment is an insult to all morons. (Clearly, Trump’s an idiot.)

#152 Bigrider on 05.18.17 at 10:40 am

Older Italians need be wary. They are especially susceptible to the H1RE1 virus, better known as the ‘gottahumpahoma virus”

Worse yet, spreads as a contagion to those in the household and beyond as virus can survive in any spoken word !

#153 Calgary Rip Off on 05.18.17 at 10:43 am

These measures of volatility indicate what has happened and what may happen, but there is no guarantee.

If you truly had the answer for investing everyone reading would be rich. This is not a criticism, but an objective fact.

I especially like the lyrics from “When Heaven comes down”, Dokken, Under Lock and Key(1985)

Total confusion- one final sin
Someone’s religion and greed
Accidents happen, someone to blame
Who’s got the answers we need?
I don’t know who to believe
But I know who’s gonna set me free
Cause I’ll be waiting
When heaven comes down
Ashes to ashes, sorrow and shame
Look at the future again
Angels in heaven walking the streets
Searching for someone to blame
I don’t know who to believe
But I know who’s gonna set me free
Cause I’ll be waiting
When heaven comes down
Until tomorrow
When heaven comes down
Cause I’ll be waiting
When heaven comes down
Until tomorrow
When heaven comes down

#154 NoName on 05.18.17 at 10:44 am

#108 Basil Fawlty on 05.18.17 at 1:00 am

Why is Ford laying off, there a huge changes coming to car manufacturing in next 10-15 yrs, I guess ford choosing to be on leading edge. In eu all new car to be manufactured by 2025 is to be electric, so basically “soon” you won’t need anymore people that deal with engine and transmission design and everything that goes around it. There are already company s that are developing motors batteries hidrogen engines… I was very sceptical about ICU for passinger cars dying any time soon but by the way things are going looks like I was wrong… I am thinking about buying plug in hybrid. Now add self driving cars. My car have lane departure and collision avoidance only and i van tell you my blood pressure during commute is much lower. Can’t remember when was last time my mouth foamed and I flipped bird to someone, now I just notice that car is not moving as fast any more. Can’t wait for new gen2 semi-retired with stop and go traffic when most of cars will be electric I will be able to roll windows and kerry out muningful conversations with other stuck in a traffic people.

#155 Doug in London on 05.18.17 at 10:46 am

I logged on to my investment account today, and still no big drop in the stock market. I’m going outside shortly so I don’t get impatient as hell, tapping my foot, waiting for this so called market selloff (in other words buying opportunity) to occur.

#156 true face of caring conservativism on 05.18.17 at 10:49 am

Even you little holy soldiers should be able to glean that. — Garth

I ran to be federal leader of the Progressive Conservative Party. That was the true face of caring conservativism. — Garth

===

You little soldiers, eh?

Sounds more like good old fashioned paternalism, instead of any flavour of “conservativism”.

You should tweet it. Wait… that would sound like Donald.

#157 cramar on 05.18.17 at 10:52 am

#131 Keith in Calgary on 05.18.17 at 8:48 am

. . .

FYI, Keith: I ran to be federal leader of the Progressive Conservative Party. That was the true face of caring conservativism. — Garth

————

We need a leader in North America more than ever that can give sane conservative leadership. It is too bad you were premature in your time. Maybe an opportunity lost forever. Sad for Canada.

Lee Iacocca wrote ten years ago, “Where have all the leaders gone?”

More truer today than ever before.

#158 Trump Reality on 05.18.17 at 10:56 am

On visits to Mexico in the past year have ran into and talked face to face with many an American. Before the election met lots of people of all ages who were going to vote for Trump. University educated . Women. Californians? Did not understand it. On a recent visit to neutral Mexico ran into 30 year old kids from Denver. Hell one was a rocket scientist. All TRUMP supporters. So yea the media in my opinion now is full of shit. The strangest thing of my small survey is that the only Clinton supporters were retired West Virginia coal miners. Go figure. So bash Trump or embrace him does not matter. The best thing he has done though is expose left leaning crybabies. The election is done lets get on with it. Before people talk of impeachment, really grab a book and study the process that it entails. Its not as easy as CNN is telling you lemmings. And if it was say hi to President Pence. Got it.

#159 Stan Broock on 05.18.17 at 11:03 am

#70 Rich Young on 05.17.17 at 10:03 pm
BUBBLE BUBBLE WHERE ARE THOU … EVERY BLEEPING WHERE…. and they will pop. Auto Sales falling and used car prices low will rise. All the fools buying stocks at these levels deserve the pain when she pops. More foreclosures around me in Calgary yet prices stay afloat. At some point buyers will no longer help Grandma retire from her $20,000 bungalow that now fetches $450,000. What a joke… Who is the greater fool… the one buying a house at this price or the one buying AMZN at 100x earnings and no dividend? or TSLA with no earnings and valued higher than the big 4

——————————
You can buy VGK at price 10 times earnings, 3 + % dividends,
—————–

#72 VS on 05.17.17 at 10:18 pm

so you do not expect loonie heading to 70c?

—————-
it will pass that and continue down to the 50c. Maybe 40c and even 35c. It is just a matter of time.

#160 AK on 05.18.17 at 11:03 am

#133 A Reply to #36 If proven… on 05.18.17 at 10:12 am
“You need to lie down for a spell. — Garth
Hilarious, Garth! Maybe even remind this deplorable to take his high blood pressure pills, or consult a doctor.
(I come to this blog for the issues, but stay for the laughs.)”
——————————————————————
We are fortunate that Clinton did not win the election.

#161 A Reply to #75 crowdedelevator on 05.18.17 at 11:07 am

“… think of us poor ‘unprepared’ schleps that went happily into the night.”

“Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.”
— Dylan Thomas, 1914 – 1953

#162 Ole Doberman on 05.18.17 at 11:10 am

#131 Keith in Calgary on 05.18.17 at 8:48 am

http://www.calgarysun.com/2017/05/17/ndp-acknowledges-flood-threat-to-calgary

Looks like snow conditions in the mountains are worse than in 2013, when Calgary was hit with the largest flood in a century which devastated real estate in many city districts.

That explains the neighbourhood of Elbow Park (right in ground zero) having a bunch of properties that have suddenly been listed as a result. This was the area of multi-million dollar properties that were hit last time in the flood. In Alberta these properties are now flagged on the land title that they have been flooded out.

#123 Trader Jim……

As to Garth disliking trump…..he is a dyed in the wool left leaning liberal…….always has been, always will be. You need no other explanation.

Liberals are the pallbearers of societies.

FYI, Keith: I ran to be federal leader of the Progressive Conservative Party. That was the true face of caring conservativism. — Garth
——————————————————-
Can you imagine such a flood happening again so soon, all river properties would loose big value this time – no once in a 100 years event.

And in a weak market.

#163 NoName on 05.18.17 at 11:12 am

semi-retired

Should be semi-autonomouse

#164 pBrasseur on 05.18.17 at 11:13 am

The VIX in perspective:

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JyMb7ENyDow/WRy7ymG9SkI/AAAAAAAAWxU/O3scWdmMTNQXNmP_rWAweM9wPwosUWfZgCLcB/s1600/Walls%2Bof%2Bworry.jpg

But hey if you want to be scared be scared…

#165 Ronaldo on 05.18.17 at 11:16 am

#112 Myra Andrews on 05.18.17 at 1:25 am

http://www.clivestevepaul.com/LynnmourTownhousesForSale.ubr/879-old-lillooet-road-mls-reg-r2167121?order=listing_price%2520DESC&mls_number=R2167121&action=filter&acronym=REBGV
—————————————————————–
In Dec. 1969 I bought one of these units. Cost at the time (new) $20,800. Now for sale for $798,000. 38 times more expensive than went I first bought. My wages at the time were $8000/yr. PIT and condo fees was 1/3 my own gross income. At the time, the wife’s income not taken into account. I was easily able to purchase on my own income with 15% down which I borrowed from my mother. I paid her back a short time later by borrowing the $3000 from same bank to supposedly buy furniture. I had $500 to my name at the time but no debts and married 2 1/2 years. I was 23. Most of my friends and work mates rented and attempted to save before buying. Unfortunately, inflation was running very high at the time and prices of these units 2 years later had risen to $29000 or 39%. It was a smart move on my part. Not so for my renter friends. Interest rates at the time 10%.

#166 Tazi Bnu on 05.18.17 at 11:16 am

Typically evidence of a criminal act is needed to justify impeachment, and so far no one knows what criminal act was committed. The latest charge those with Trump derangement syndrome have brought forward is obstruction of justice, because of a memo from Comey.

This memo may or may not exist, no one in the media has seen it. It was revealed by an anonymous caller late at night who supposedly dictated only portions of the memo. Currently there’s more proof of the Sasquatch existing.

The contents of the memo allegedly say that Trump asked Comey to drop looking into Flynn. Flynn, and “the Russians” are not under criminal investigation as testified by Comey. The charge of obstruction of justice is for impeding or frustrating a criminal investigation. Therefore, even if Trump asked Comey to “drop it” it wasn’t illegal to do so, just incredibly reckless like having a private email server for government classified emails with no anti-virus software.

So far there is no inkling of evidence of any criminal act. The impeachment thing being brandying about by the media is unfounded and to use a buzz word “fake news.” However, this does use up White House resources. It could delay the tax and healthcare reforms further, but I think the market has already discounted Trumps amazing, great, awesome deal making abilities bigly. So nothing in the news has warranted a change in long term forecasting: therefore, no change in the current tilt of a balanced portfolio.

Trump is the president, a bad one but still the president and will be for at least one term, at most two. There is no possibility that Hilary becomes president there’s no “do over” of the 2016 election. Obama should retire from politics like all past presidents and should probably stay out of the politics of other countries as well, ie. France. Instead, these two are seemingly wanting to lead the “resistance,” whatever that means. There are no innocent parties from creating uncertainty. This is just breeding more crazy doomers that want to invest in toilet paper and food that last longer than you, Costco sells both apparently.

The democrats should focus on rebuilding their party and getting a new set of leaders to come forward organically, instead of being groomed, not the crazies and oldies they have now.

#167 Keith on Calgary on 05.18.17 at 11:18 am

FYI, Keith: I ran to be federal leader of the Progressive Conservative Party. That was the true face of caring conservativism. — Garth

——————

That does not mean you are one though. All you need to do is look at recent history here in Alberta………Allison Redford pulled the wool over everyone’s eyes too. For a while……heh.

Made a bundle shorting the Brasilian Real in the last 24 hours before they closed the Ibovespa today afte rit went down 10%…….took some currency holding gains off the table as well. Keep your money, trade your money, make more money…..who needs stocks ?

#168 Stan Broock on 05.18.17 at 11:18 am

It is not looking good.

Breaking news:

Trump administration triggers launch of NAFTA renegotiations

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-administration-triggers-launch-nafta-150000584.html

#169 Ronaldo on 05.18.17 at 11:24 am

#112 Myra Andrews on 05.18.17 at 1:25 am

Further to my previous post. I should have mentioned that these same units as early as March of 2014 were selling for slightly under $500,000. A 60% increase from that time. Not a biad return on investment.

#170 Yanniel on 05.18.17 at 11:24 am

Hi Garth,

You should know I am reading this post right now from Grand Turk!

Wife is not happy. I paid $123USD for a crappy satelital connection and the main purpose was to read the GreaterFool!

I also read your blog in the Bahamas, US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

You are now an international blogger!

Cheers,

Yanniel.

#171 NoName on 05.18.17 at 11:45 am

Here is a list who spends and how much on soc. programs in us, majority if not all of money comes from fed, if i got table right.
this is getting interesting

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_programs_in_the_United_States

#172 For those about to flop... on 05.18.17 at 11:54 am

Karma #104

I think 7% is too high if it’s not originally a presale. 2% on initial purchase and ~3% on sale. I suggest you estimate a total of 5%, unless it’s well over $2m. If it’s a presale, then perhaps use 8%, unless it’s below $500k, so the GST has a rebate.

Just my two cents.

Keep up the good work.

////////////////////////

Thanks for the feedback Karma.

I do calculate the numbers exactly and then chicken out and put ” roughly ” in case one of my sausage fingers hits the wrong button.

That’s the whole point of these CONFIRMED PINK SNOW posts, I knew already that these guys had lost money but I want to do them so people can see the results with their own eyes and also draw there own conclusions.

Today’s thread was part of my motivation to start doing this.

When this correction started in Vancouver there were a heap of people on here that were arguing whether Trump was an idiot or a really, really really big idiot and I thought ,fair enough, but when we look back in archives there is going to be no recorded history of what was going on in Vancouver real estate at this time.

And so I stepped up to the plate to try and document it in my own special way to the best of my ability.

I was physically and mentally weak, had just learned that my best blog buddy Boom had passed away and seriously thought about no longer visiting the blog as it was just too painful.

Doing this project kept me involved on the blog and I know Boom would not have wanted me to stop posting because of his untimely passing.

Instead of just saying Vancover is down 10% I tried to show the Who ,What and Where and try to break the market down and personalize it a bit.

I’m not sure if anyone has noticed but I normally start my posts of with the term”These guys” and try to stay respectful in their struggle to get the bulk of their money out of real estate.

I’m not interested in calling them idiots,morons or whatever tag you want to put on them because this is not what it’s about.Ditto for the realtors,I have seen some cases that baffle me but putting up the realtors name and trying to shame them serves little purpose in my eyes.

Some people like my Pink Snow posts ,some people hate them but it is all about just try to record a segment of the market at this point in time.

At the start of the year some people said prices had not gone down…I showed otherwise.

The next criticism I got was that they were only lowering the price to get competitive bids and no one in Vancouver would actually take a loss…I showed otherwise.

If you go back through the listings up -thread whilst no massive losses the thing that stood out for me was we had places in Surrey, Burnaby Vancouver and Coquitlam and so they are spread out which I think is good for the people that live in these cities to see.

Not only that we had a condo, duplex, townhome and detached and so it really was a mixed bag across all classes.

I told the boss of this blog what I was going to do, apologized to InfLewenza and Robax and told them I would not try to interfere with their Saturday posts as I appreciate their efforts but would post cases as I came across them in real time.

Anyway,one of my hopes as I stated in the past was to spark a conversation at the dinner table and just like a poster did up-thread ,show some family members confirmation that real estate doesn’t always go up when they are being pressured into doing something that they know is not right for them ,and buy real estate when they need it ,where they need it,as opposed buying any old place just for the sake of it.

Hope everyone has a good day…

M42BC
M64WI

#173 Predict doom like it is 2009 on 05.18.17 at 11:58 am

#137

You are linking a quote from 2009, dude!
‘Wolf!’

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/canadas-dirty-subprime-secret/article4357076/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile

No avalanche of forclosures then, no Avalanche now.

#174 Blazing Siddles on 05.18.17 at 12:07 pm

#26 Marcus on 05.17.17 at 7:32 pm

The real funny thing is that Trump will go for 8 years. Such a strange world we live in now. Fake news.”

Very interesting…..in fact I think Trump has some kind of Ministry of Truth that fabricates small fake news stories to suck the life out of major issues…..kind of like how firefighters will set small blazes to such the energy out of a big inferno!

#175 A Reply to #164 Tazi Bnu on 05.18.17 at 12:08 pm

“The impeachment thing being brandying about by the media is unfounded….”

Was that a postprandial brandy? Or did you mean to write, “… being bandied about by the media….”?

#176 Waiverless on 05.18.17 at 12:09 pm

#167 Ronaldo on 05.18.17 at 11:24 am
#112 Myra Andrews on 05.18.17 at 1:25 am

Further to my previous post. I should have mentioned that these same units as early as March of 2014 were selling for slightly under $500,000. A 60% increase from that time. Not a biad return on investment

————————————————

That’s great.. as garth says.. never too early too sell.. can be too late.. Did you cash out?

#177 Smoking Man on 05.18.17 at 12:16 pm

Golden GTA area

20,700 new listings since Monday.

#178 People are Strange on 05.18.17 at 12:27 pm

Globe & Mail Headline from 4 hours ago:

THE NEXT MOVE
Toronto market turned on its head as flood of listings overwhelms buyers

#179 JimmyTwoTeeth on 05.18.17 at 12:36 pm

Re: OAK BAY DETACHED HOME SALES CRASH 71% FROM YEAR-AGO LEVELS IN APRIL posted by VREU in #6

Again, I ask: are there sources for this? I’m interested in where this data comes from and how it was interpreted.

Thanks!

#180 AK on 05.18.17 at 12:42 pm

#141 Tony on 05.18.17 at 9:47 am
“Predict another 300 plus point down day for the DOW and a 75 point plus down day for the NASDAQ today.”
——————————————————————-
I hope you are using a dart board.

#181 Fake News on 05.18.17 at 12:48 pm

#108 Basil Fawlty on 05.18.17 at 1:00 am
If the US economy is so strong, why is Ford laying off 20,000 people?

In addition, why did Obama have to increase the US federal debt by $10T.

Finally, why was GDP growth only .7% in the first quarter?

______________________________________

And now you understand the definition of Fake News when so called experts talk about the economy.

#182 JimmyTwoTeeth on 05.18.17 at 12:52 pm

Regarding the Ford layoffs – aren’t these sorts of corporate announcements strong clues that things are slowing down for the debt-happy?

That:

a) it’s getting harder to get loans
b) magicking existing mortgages (refinancing, etc) to purchase a vehicle is harder
c) people are getting nervous about their debt/job stability
d) based on historical corporate revenue/sales figures (a stable dataset, I’d think), large corporations have far better insight into the economy and its drivers than the real estate industry + politicians would ever choose to reveal

What the public really needs is an education in how to read the signs themselves, rather than be spoonfed ‘news’. I’m requesting a blog post on this!

#183 NoName on 05.18.17 at 12:57 pm

#156 Trump Reality on 05.18.17 at 10:56 am

Read

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/business/economy/united-mine-workers-retiree-health-plan.html

#184 Larry Dickman on 05.18.17 at 12:59 pm

@69 earthboundmisfit

“Please promise you won’t breed.”

Thank you for proving my point. I expressed a political opinion that you don’t agree with (I admire and support President Trump) and you respond with an ad hominem attack against me …

Hey Garth; I thought disrespectful comments were NOT allowed on this blog?

#185 toronto1 on 05.18.17 at 1:01 pm

#92 Lefty nice charts!

Thats contagion from the HGC fiasco.

All bubbles follow the same premise, when times are good, credit is easy and available, when they start to deflate, credit becomes much harder to source. Same story in all housing bubbles- Ireland, Greece, Spain, US and on and on.

With credit contraction there is always lead time- this is it- stories are starting to emerge right now about some deals falling through due to banks valuations- that will be news but not for 3-4 months time.

Ease and availability of credit is what drives all RE, not location, country, postal code etc.. without easy access to huge credit there is no housing market.

Banks were screaming before because their quaints and models could not quantify the credit availability that lenders like HGC and others were supplying to the market at low low rates. BUT in the name of market share, they bent their rules too. Now its a different dynamic, no longer is market share relevant right now its about flight to safety.

In the GTA (and most likely all of Canada) there is a massive over supply of housing- the current population and earning capacity is just not there to support this over supply.

think about this for a second: Canada is at approx 70% home ownership now
how much of population is under 18 and not in the market? call it 10%
How much of the population is over 65 and not in the market? Call it 10%
How much of the population makes 40K or less median family income (its more then you think) call it 10%, there not in the market
How much of the population is on some type of permenant disability, welfare etc.. that are not in the market? call it 10%

Thats 40% of the population (no idea if these numbers are correct- but i would guess its pretty close)

Just like in the US, the over supply has to be absorbed by the market- this is a timely process and takes years to happen- this stock must be absorbed in real earning capacity dollars as with the coming credit crunch there will be no more “fake paper” available.

Whats the cost? who knows, even in toronto, were average family income is in the 70-80K range, at 5 -6 times income that is 400-450K range for an average home. long ways to go still……….

#186 A Reply to #39 Nonbuyer on 05.18.17 at 1:13 pm

“Seconding #21–if I wanted to read about Trump I’d read virtually anything else. And no, I’m not a supporter, I’m actually Canadian!”

Your last sentence is a non sequitur. You can be a Canadian Trump supporter. You cannot be a Canadian Trump voter.

#187 AK on 05.18.17 at 1:37 pm

#175 Smoking Man on 05.18.17 at 12:16 pm
“Golden GTA area
20,700 new listings since Monday.”
——————————————————————-
So much for the supply shortage propaganda that we have been fed on BNN over the past 5 years.

#188 Wrk.dover on 05.18.17 at 1:46 pm

BAD DOG ! GO LIE DOWN !

classic for this site

#189 JimmyTwoTeeth on 05.18.17 at 1:53 pm

Ok, I figured out where VREU got their stats in comment #6 – comparing the following two VREB reports.

Monthly April stats, 2016: http://www.vreb.org/media/attachments/view/doc/statsrelease2016_04/pdf/April

Monthly April stats, 2017:
http://www.vreb.org/media/attachments/view/doc/statsrelease2017_04/pdf/April

Love the updates, but this untrusting fella likes to know sources. Thanks!

#190 Tazi Bnu on 05.18.17 at 1:54 pm

#173 A Reply to #164 Tazi Bnu on 05.18.17 at 12:08 pm
“The impeachment thing being brandying about by the media is unfounded….”

Was that a postprandial brandy? Or did you mean to write, “… being bandied about by the media….”?
______________

It’s nice to see a moniker-less anon actually read my post and graced it with such mighty insight and incredible wit. Whoop de do!

#191 Rates vs Capital on 05.18.17 at 2:10 pm

#177 Jimmy Two TeethRe: OAK BAY DETACHED HOME SALES CRASH 71% FROM YEAR-AGO LEVELS IN APRIL posted by VREU in #6

Again, I ask: are there sources for this? I’m interested in where this data comes from and how it was interpreted.

Thanks!
——

Jimmy, if you are going to trust VREU, you will be relying on the rantings of a moldy basement dweller who has been predicting the collapse of prices for over a year. Rewind to her posts a year ago, and the crash was just around the corner.

Meanwhile the percentage of foreign buyers went up from 0.6% in 2015 to 4.6% in 2016 in Victoria – a seven fold increase. And even bigger increase in the CRD.

“About 6.3 per cent of transactions in the Capital Regional District in October involved foreign purchasers, according to the latest figures released by the province yesterday.

That’s up from about 3.5 per cent since the last report in September.

The Victoria area is now only second to Richmond, where 6.7 per cent of transactions involved foreign buyers. It’s also seeing higher foreign investment than Vancouver, which came in at 2.5 per cent.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/victoria-foreign-purchasers-1.3873015

And off course, what happens, prices in Victoria went up 23.5%

http://globalnews.ca/news/3196388/victoria-council-postpones-decision-on-foreign-buyer-tax-in-capital-region/

VREU, still waiting for the explanation as to why prices have gone up.

Have average family incomes spiked dramatically? Nope, Victoria still one of the lowest in Canada with anemic wage growth of 1%

Have rates dropped to attract more attention? Nope, rates are actually rising, and they have been low for 9 years, so did people just find out about the low rates and decide to jump in?

VREU is shrilling and hoping for a crash so she can move outside of her parent’s basement.

Sorry VREU, you need to go outside and see the influx of foreign capital as well as look at data. If you did the former, the change would be obvious…

Always look at the source of capital….

#192 AGuyInVancouver on 05.18.17 at 2:30 pm

#170 For those about to flop… And I’m glad that you do this, a nice antidote to all the BS put out by realty boards.

#193 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 05.18.17 at 2:33 pm

The housing crash has taken hold. Thousands and thousands of speculators on the brink of going bankrupt have listed their speculative houses on the market needing a greater fool before they go bust. Many of them realtors who want you to do as They say and buy while they sell to the suckers. Happy Housing Crash Everyone Everyone! :-)

#194 pptorpor on 05.18.17 at 2:38 pm

#173 A Reply to #164 Tazi Bnu on 05.18.17 at 12:08 pm

“The impeachment thing being brandying about by the media is unfounded….”

Was that a postprandial brandy? Or did you mean to write, “… being bandied about by the media….”

Be careful not to jolt him from his postprandial torpor

#195 Mark Baum on 05.18.17 at 2:46 pm

$120,000 Family Income ($60k earner x 2)
————————————————————
$7568 Take Home Pay/Mo (Not taking into account insurance plans)

Monthly Expenses
-$3083.71: Mortgage ($1.2 Million Home – $500k Down, $700k Mortgage @ 2.35%, 25 yr amortization)
-$1030: Other housing costs
-$400 Property Tax
-$100 Insurance
-$200 Hydro
-$80 Gas
-$150 Internet + Cable
-$100 Maintenance
-$1400: 2 Vehicles ($450 Finance/maintenance + $150 Gas + $100 Insurance x 2)
-$1400: Childcare (2 Kids: $1000 Full + $400 after school)
-$150: Cell phone x 2
-$1000: Food
-$100: Essentials/Toiletries
-$200: Clothing
-$0: No fitness/sports/extracurriculars
-$0: No savings
-$0: No emergency/miscellaneous
-$0: No vacations
—————————————————————
$8363.71 Expenses/Mo

******

So do I have this right? For a family with $120k combined income to live a very basic lifestyle, in an average detached home – with a 40%+ down payment, in GTA suburbs, they would be at best (I am sure I’m also missing some expenses) net -$795.71/Mo at record low interest levels……..

#196 fancy_pants on 05.18.17 at 2:47 pm

I think ‘normal’ departed and is not returning.. most folk suspect it occurred about the same our old friend ‘common sense’ left us.

http://www.woodwardenglish.com/death-of-common-sense-obituary/

#197 Mark Baum on 05.18.17 at 2:48 pm

$120,000 Family Income ($60k earner x 2)
————————————————————
$7568 Take Home Pay/Mo (Not taking into account insurance plans)

Monthly Expenses
-$3083.71: Mortgage ($1.2 Million Home – $500k Down, $700k Mortgage @ 2.35%, 25 yr amortization)
-$1030: Other housing costs
^(-$400 Property Tax
-$100 Insurance
-$200 Hydro
-$80 Gas
-$150 Internet + Cable
-$100 Maintenance)

-$1400: 2 Vehicles ($450 Finance/maintenance + $150 Gas + $100 Insurance x 2)
-$1400: Childcare (2 Kids: $1000 Full + $400 after school)
-$150: Cell phone x 2
-$1000: Food
-$100: Essentials/Toiletries
-$200: Clothing
-$0: No fitness/sports/extracurriculars
-$0: No savings
-$0: No emergency/miscellaneous
-$0: No vacations
—————————————————————
$8363.71 Expenses/Mo

******

So do I have this right? For a family with $120k combined income to live a very basic lifestyle, in an average detached home – with a 40%+ down payment, in GTA suburbs, they would be at best (I am sure I’m also missing some expenses) net -$795.71/Mo at record low interest levels……..

#198 traderJim on 05.18.17 at 3:33 pm

#171 Blazing Siddles (are you related to crowdedfartz by chance?)

Trump doesn’t have to manufacture any fake news, big or small, his opponents are in hyper-drive all on their own.

But you raise a good point, all this hysteria based on nothing means if Trump actually does do something crazy, by that time absolutely no one will care.

MSM crying wolf 2 to 3 times a day is not exactly smart, but I am only just now realizing how dumb they are.

#199 Chaddywack on 05.18.17 at 3:41 pm

@170 flop

And that’s the important thing, showing that a loss actually happened with real evidence. For too long I’ve heard from friends, family, the media that NO ONE would ever take a loss in Vancouver.

Because, after all, Vancouver real estate “always goes up” according to a lot of people.

#200 CJBob on 05.18.17 at 3:55 pm

#189 Rates vs Capital on 05.18.17 at 2:10 pm
Meanwhile the percentage of foreign buyers went up from 0.6% in 2015 to 4.6% in 2016 in Victoria…

Always look at the source of capital…
___________________
The other source of capital for Victoria is boomers who are retiring in Victoria. I was there for a week earlier this month visiting my father-in-law. Demographics indicate this trend likely to continue over the next 10 years.

#201 Lee on 05.18.17 at 4:06 pm

#193,

What are other housing cost of $1,050 a month?

#202 Spaccone on 05.18.17 at 4:09 pm

#193 Mark Baum on 05.18.17 at 2:46 pm

My parents paid $6,500 in property taxes in 2016 in York Region (I assume their house is worth between $900k-$1mm).

They make maybe 80k at best between them (father is retired) though the house has been paid off many years now (they’re friggin cheap, they came in the 60s/70s and don’t do the regular Canadian spendy /leisurely ways…ie restaurants are foreign to them outside of major family functions, very infrequent travel, buy used cars and hold them for many years…this is their natural state or M.O., it’s not a huge struggle/sacrifice for them).

The McMansion lifestyle makes little sense. Yeah, it’s sweet to have a lot of space but it’s a money and time pit–you’re pretty much playing property manager outside of your regular job.

#203 A Reply to #182 Tazi Bnu on 05.18.17 at 4:16 pm

“It’s nice to see a moniker-less anon actually read my post and graced it with such mighty insight and incredible wit. Whoop de do!”

Witty reply. Now, let me ask you: Were you being contemptuous or contemptible?

Great post today, Garth. I’ve been in stitches all day.

#204 TCContrarian on 05.18.17 at 4:18 pm

“Even with Wednesday’s sell off the technicals remain bullish with the S&P 500 in an uptrend and above its rising 200-day moving average. The market’s just 2% off its highs and is up 5.3% even after today’s decline” -GT
********************************************

Yes but…

“…only ten stocks out of that five hundred are responsible for 46% of the entire 2017 rally in this index” [S&P 500].

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-11/just-these-ten-companies-account-half-sps-2017-returns

The indicators I use suggest that the SP 500 is in for a 40-60% decline over the next couple years. Stay the course at your peril. -TCC

Groundless babble. — Garth

—————————————————————-
This:
“…only ten stocks out of that five hundred are responsible for 46% of the entire 2017 rally in this index” [S&P 500].

is empirical information – not an opinion.

This:

“the SP 500 is in for a 40-60% decline over the next couple years”, is an opinion.

I’m archiving this little exchange so that the “no-one saw it coming” which will be the most popular phrase from money managers can be shown to be false.
The fact is, the ‘smart-money’ has been seeing this coming for quite some time. The only thing is, very few are willing to consider this possibility. The 2008-9 crash is a distant memory…
What do they say about those who don’t learn from history? Ah yes…that they’re likely to repeat it.

TCC

#205 Mark Baum on 05.18.17 at 4:23 pm

#198 Lee on 05.18.17 at 4:06 pm
#193,

What are other housing cost of $1,050 a month?

*********

The ‘$1030: Other housing costs’ is an aggregation of the following: $400 Property Tax+$100 Insurance+$200 Hydro+$80 Gas+$150 Internet/Cable+$100 Maintenance = $1030

The post didn’t format the way I originally had it, looks like I put it in there twice but it is just those items totalled up once and shown broken down.

#206 Stan Broock on 05.18.17 at 4:27 pm

#193 Mark Baum on 05.18.17 at 2:46 pm

You will need at least extra 2.5 k net a month (over your estimates) in order to support that projected life style.

I know people with over 200 k income before taxes, who have a student, another kid in school (private), paid out house in North York, save nothing other than corporate defined contribution plans.

Life in Toronto is very expensive, Sad reality.

I make over 200 k myself and can not afford to live there. So I do not live there.

#207 rates vs capital on 05.18.17 at 5:02 pm

#197
189 Rates vs Capital on 05.18.17 at 2:10 pm
Meanwhile the percentage of foreign buyers went up from 0.6% in 2015 to 4.6% in 2016 in Victoria…

Always look at the source of capital…
___________________
The other source of capital for Victoria is boomers who are retiring in Victoria. I was there for a week earlier this month visiting my father-in-law. Demographics indicate this trend likely to continue over the next 10 years.
———–

Victoria is the land of the newly wed and newly dead. It has been a retirement draw for decades, so not quite sure how the boomers will impact it any more than they have.

To me, its more of a displacement issue – the boomers are displacing the newly dead, so no net increase.

#208 Rexx Rock on 05.18.17 at 5:05 pm

Even Nanaimo has bidding wars on all real estate.Any thoughts on a investment property in Nanaimo.It seems all the local realtors are saying Vancouver and Victoria investors are coming to buy in Nanaimo!

#209 april on 05.18.17 at 5:51 pm

#170 – We like your posts. We think your doing a great job. I see there are hardly any condos listed in New West for under 200 thous compared to last yrs when there were lots under that price. We wonder if you have any up to day data on what’s going on in this area? Couple of youngsters anxious to buy.

#210 Dan.t on 05.18.17 at 6:11 pm

#205 Rexx Rock

Yes, Canadians can afford anything under 500k…they will buy each others houses until the last fool can’t buy in anymore…then move to a new city.

Canadians know only buy real estate. talk real estate, and dream about hardwood and marble counter tops..they will buy anywhere as long as credit flows and interest rates are record low.

plus once the BMO tells them that they are richer than they think…they will take out a line of credit and buy more…

It will be one hell of a mess soon there.

#211 Mark Baum on 05.18.17 at 6:12 pm

@#199 Spaccone, #203 Stan Broock

Completely agree with both. And yet people are doing it – but for how long can it last?

#212 Future Expatriate on 05.18.17 at 6:26 pm

Normal is TrumpCO in prison, and the GOP voted out next year.

That’s normal. So the Obama recovery can continue without the usual rear end damage from the right.

#213 Future Expatriate on 05.18.17 at 6:28 pm

#205. Nice try spamming the site.

#214 prairie person on 05.18.17 at 6:33 pm

Regarding your comment about my post.
Garth, on this blog there are regular comments about the role of mainland Chinese buyers in moving prices up in Vancouver. Lately, since the provincial tax on foreigners there have been posters who have shifted the argument to Victoria. I’ve lived here for over forty years. Except for some children of some very wealthy Asian (Taiwan, China, Hong Kong) driving very expensive cars I haven’t seen any evidence of a modern version of Genghis Khan’s army appearing. The young people are probably students enrolled at UVic or Camosun or one of the private schools. That was my point. The neighbour who is selling is from Asia. Is he a Canadian citizen? I don’t know. I don’t care. But given the Asian conspiracy theories that regularly appear on this blog, one would assume that because of his ancestry, if there were thousands standing at the border just waiting to buy, he’d know of fellow Asians and ways to tempt them to buy his property. He doesn’t and isn’t. He’s just selling his house like anyone else in the neighbourhood. I got no sense that he is some part of an advancing Asian army or that he was particularly wealthy. As for the sometimes fuss on this board about Asian’s buying places for their kids to live while they go to school, my daughter and son in law bought a condo in Vancouver while their daughter went to university. Given the poor quality and the high price of what is available to rent, buying a condo made a great deal of sense. She graduated. They sold the condo. The price they got covered the cost of the condo’s expenses plus a small profit. Financially, it was a good move. Not everyone is buying and selling as speculation. Not everyone who is buying places for students to live is Asian.

#215 DON on 05.18.17 at 9:05 pm

#205 Rexx Rock on 05.18.17 at 5:05 pm
Even Nanaimo has bidding wars on all real estate.Any thoughts on a investment property in Nanaimo.It seems all the local realtors are saying Vancouver and Victoria investors are coming to buy in Nanaimo!
****************

Well this is cute…”Nanaimo has bidding wars on all real estate.” YIKES!

Rexx…Check out 1950 Main Rd House, only going for $1.6 million been on the market for 222days. Perhaps the seller overpriced a bit. But eh…since there are bidding wars he/she/they should have no problem.

You need to get your pumping news published in the The Van Sun (they are ok with posting under investigated news).

Bidding wars on “all” Nanaimo properties. LMAO

A couple weeks back 3 houses were put up for sale in my Vic neighbourhood and all sold…but the latest even nicer home that came on the market at the time the others sold – sits waiting for a buyer. And the realtor is busy stuffing “what to sell your house” flyers in the mail slots up and down the neighborhood. People are tapped and can’t afford to move across town.

I am phoning the seller and inquiring how build the pool is and if they have a profitable grow-op or meth lab in the basement…cause for $1.6 Million??

I will watching to see if this sells, I hope the seller the best.
https://www.zolo.ca/nanaimo-real-estate/page-2

#216 Ronaldo on 05.18.17 at 10:21 pm

#174 Waiverless on 05.18.17 at 12:09 pm

#167 Ronaldo on 05.18.17 at 11:24 am
#112 Myra Andrews on 05.18.17 at 1:25 am

Further to my previous post. I should have mentioned that these same units as early as March of 2014 were selling for slightly under $500,000. A 60% increase from that time. Not a biad return on investment

————————————————

That’s great.. as garth says.. never too early too sell.. can be too late.. Did you cash out?
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Yes, I cashed out in 1974 before the crash. 346% gain.

#217 Doug in London on 05.18.17 at 10:25 pm

So, this market “selloff’ turned out to be another tempest in a teapot. Damn, I’m disappointed, as I was looking forward to a buying opportunity.

@Mark Baum, post #193:
Now you know why on this blog the advice has been to rent if you can’t afford to buy a house. Despite that idea, a lot of fools still think renting is throwing away your money.

#218 The Great Gazoo on 05.18.17 at 11:02 pm

Based on an excerpt below from an article in the G&M today, could be a while before we see the Fed raise rates. If so, home prices could well remain strong this year.

http://www.globeandmail.com

FED’S RATE-HIKE ODDS TUMBLE

The bond market is interpreting what could be the deepest crisis of Donald Trump’s presidency as throwing the U.S. Federal Reserve off its path for interest-rate increases this year.

The odds that the U.S. central bank raises its benchmark rate next month are about 64 per cent, based on the current effective Fed funds rate and the forward overnight index swap rate. That’s down from 80 per cent a week ago. The chances they move in September are also on the decline, and the Fed funds futures market isn’t pricing in a full hike until November.”

#219 Ronaldo on 05.18.17 at 11:37 pm

#212 Don
#205 Rexx Rock

”Bidding wars on “all” Nanaimo properties. LMAO”
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Best joke so far today Don. Also LMAO.