How to buy

Jake is a self-confessed moister, with a wife and a hormonal tug to housing. The trouble is, they live in Vancouver – where everyone earns less and pays more. Sharing a city with people who can’t drive in snow comes with a price.

“We’re first time buyers and went into the market looking for a townhouse in Burnaby and New Westminster this year,” he says. “At the beginning, we thought we could afford something. Unfortunately we were outbid twice by big margins in 10+ offers wars. Once these properties are sold at such high prices, the surrounding areas follow similar price points and would be difficult to come back down. So now, I can’t even become a greater fool even if I wanted to.

“The frustration and desperation were not something I could imagine before getting into the market. You would think the Vancouver market had finally slowed down in 2016, but it has come back much stronger. I consider my family doing okay financially, with decent income and sizeable investment portfolio and can afford travels a few times a year. Perhaps you could change the topic of a blog post to how to become a greater fool, for those who “need to” or want to become a homeowner in heated cities.”

Sure, Jake. A primer on suicidal investing in just a moment. First, we need a reality check. The Vancouver/Lower Mainland/BC market is not on fire. It is unhealthy, unbalanced, confused and seriously skewed by grifters like HOME – the BC Home Ownership and Equity Partnership. That’s the free-money program which gifts moisters up to $37,500 interest and payment-free for five years so they can mortgage themselves into oblivion.

And guess what happens when government gives away down payments? You bet. Sales and prices go up, making it harder for people to buy – which is exactly the impact experienced in the Van condo market. Politicians do it again. Never fails.

But look at the numbers being reported for the market overall. This is the latest from the BC realtors:

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,865 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April, down 23.9% from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $7.19 billion, down 25.4% from April 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $728,955, a 2% decrease from the same period last year.

So far this year, dollar volumes are lower by 32% across BC, sales have fallen 25% and the average price plopped over 9%, or more than $90,000. Granted, sales were higher in Vancouver (15%) compared to March, but cratered (-26%) from the same time last year. If listings in YVR were increasing at the same pace as in the GTA (36%), the price drop would be epic. But there are actually 17% fewer homes for sale than a year ago, dropping active listings to a 20-year low. Yes, by holding back product from the marketplace Vancouver real estate owners are restricting supply and firming prices. Just like OPEC. Or the milk marketing board. Or a drug cartel.

Those who argue the local market never paused are living in a house-porn world populated by the fetching moisters who star in Love it or List It Vancouver, plus rockstar realtors who make Donald Trump sound credible. Yes, condos are going up. Yup, the province is to blame. No, the market fundamentals are not healed and, yes, once listings start to pace those in the GTA, there’s no bottom.

But, hey Jake, if you want to dive in now and circle the drain with the rest of your little friends, go ahead. There are but three things to remember:

  • Get pre-approved for a mortgage before you start, but avoid one of the responsible lenders like RBC. Instead seek out mortgage brokers who can place your loan with Home Capital or, better, Vancity. They’ve got a mortgage for everything – laneway houses, properties bought in partnership with your masseuse, loans you don’t really have to pay back and even ways to get real estate without any actual money. How cool is that?
  • Second, offer whatever you have to in order to buy a house. Anything. Like, who cares? At 2.36% an extra $100,000 costs you a measly $432 more a month. Expressed in moister currency, that’s only 18 Grande Cinnamon Dolce Lattes a week at a Starbucks on Robson Street. Cheap, compared to the pride of owning a $650,000, high-overhead, 100%- leveraged condo.
  • Finally, never offer conditions of any kind when buying. No financing, No home inspection. And take a maximum of 11 minutes to view the place before declaring you’ll have an offer later in the day. Be serious. A player. Make-my-day. Total intimidation of any other pathetic bidders. Learn to swagger. Get a codpiece. And bring back a certified cheque for $100,000. Make sure mom has that much left on her LOC. Or ask Vancity.

You may think buying real estate is hard, Jake. It’s not. Just do it. Some crazed lender will give you the money and your parents will be happy no matter what crappy deal you sign. After all, you’re special.

Buying is easy. Selling isn’t. You’ll be asking me about that soon enough.

200 comments ↓

#1 Once a Boss, Always a Boss on 05.16.17 at 6:14 pm

Median House Price to Median Household Income

1. Hong Kong 18.1
2. Sydney 12.1
3. Vancouver 11.8
4. Los Angeles 9.3
5. San Francisco 9.2
6. Greater London 8.5
7. Toronto 7.7
8. New York 5.7
9. Seattle 5.5
10. Boston 5.4
11. Montreal 4.8
12. Tokyo 4.7

Source: Canada’s New Urban Crisis (2017) Richard Florida

A nice illustration of this data was shown yesterday on TV.

Watch the full 30 minute episode online. Show is called “The Agenda” on TVO.

http://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/cities-in-crisis

#2 pathcontrolmonk on 05.16.17 at 6:18 pm

Why anyone would even want to live in the ghetto called Vancouver is beyond me.

Great article just out in Maclean’s describing this dystopian paradise. http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/what-has-become-of-my-british-columbia/

#3 Pacman on 05.16.17 at 6:19 pm

Tks. Again. For a great article. The 3 things to remember for becoming a Greater Fool are hilarious. Would make a great Monty Python skit…

#4 Foreign Capital? on 05.16.17 at 6:21 pm

#192 Paw Patrol
Wow, some of you who scoff at patient renters who say we missed out on owning and now never will. I’m a millennial and I’m PROUD I’ve not jumped into this horny mess in Vancouver. My feet are firmly on the ground and you will NOT see me buying at peak price. I’m not dragging my family and kids into this mess. I will be watching as my fellow millennials bought at PEAK price and their horror soon as their equity washes away, remember they have not extracted any equity because they haven’t sold.

—-

Rewind 10 years, and all the Gen X’ers were saying the same thing as you. They were so excited about vultching and being smarter than everyone else.

Fast forward 5-10 years, and those same patient renting Gen X’ers lost big time – either fighting for a rental, dealing with renovations and constantly moving, fixed term leases, high renters, and home ownership out of reach for another 10 years until prices drop back down to where ‘they should have bought.’ Oh, and they get to drag their kids and spouses through that wonderful world.

See you in 10 years kid as your smugness gets replaced with angst and outrage….as prices have kept increasing for some (cough) inexplicable reason.

#5 Mark Baum on 05.16.17 at 6:22 pm

Canadian real estate obsession continues in the US:
-China has over 1.317 billion people, and Chinese citizens purchased 29,195 US homes in 2016. (1st)
-Canada has 35.85 million people, and Canadian citizens bought 26,851 US homes in 2016. (2nd)

Canadians Are Also Cashing Out:
-Citizens of Canada accounted for 23% of all sales from foreign owners in 2016, the highest of any single country.
-China was second, but way below at only 15%.

Who are the real speculators?

Source: https://betterdwelling.com/the-us-has-a-foreign-buying-problem-and-its-not-china/

#6 I'm Not Poloz on 05.16.17 at 6:26 pm

Cleavage clark increases the M1 money supply when she gives away almost $40,000 to every Vancouver resident. Poloz is satisfied because an excess M1 supply leads to Inflation and a further devaulation of our Loonie.

Get ready for a 40 cent Loonie before the end of 2019!

#7 common sense on 05.16.17 at 6:26 pm

There ya go again Mr. T…

Telling the truth and all.

Your no fun.

#8 Mark Baum on 05.16.17 at 6:29 pm

Also, nice post today. At first hilarious, and then a bit scary when you realize that’s how people are actually buying.

#9 Foreign Capital? on 05.16.17 at 6:34 pm

Sorry, but the Province’s free money program – the HOME partnership program – is not the driver of the hot condo and townhouse market in Vancouver.

The program is designed to target 42,000 people. Only 1000 people have applied, and of that about 400 have actually used the program.

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2017MNGD0053-000847

The program is equivalent to securing a second mortgage, so when you run the numbers, you actually have negative equity after closing costs. The $700 million program has been ripped apart by the media and academics, and even millennials question its utility.

Besides, assuming that all 400 received the loan, and all where in Vancouver, and all used the maximum loan amount of $37,500, is that really enough to drive the condo market?

#10 Paul on 05.16.17 at 6:35 pm

Garth you could have been an agent,with talk like that!
You got me all exited lol .

#11 Debtslavecreator on 05.16.17 at 6:35 pm

More government desperation to keep The Great Canadian Bezzle going. This is modern day slavery – neoLiberal economics as it is officially known
The rate of growth in property tax, home insurance, user fees, and other expenses will grow over time much higher than the typical take home pay. What the financial and political elites are doing is using junk monetary and fiscal policy to financialize the housing market and taxing away our incomes over time.
A debt counterfeiting operation that steadily transfers wealth from the masses but fools them into thinking
They are getting richer. Victims become advocates of the very system that is impoverishing them

#12 Economystical on 05.16.17 at 6:43 pm

It’s nice to see you are finally espousing some economystical theories Garth. My time was not wasted after all.

Economystics teaches that if prices always rise, wealth only increases. So debt becomes wealth through this miracle. But in order for it to work people must borrow and buy. Silly, outdated concepts like house prices vs. income are counter-productive as they suggest there should be a link between wealth and productivity. Nonsense! Buy at any price, because higher prices down the road create wealth.

A free lunch for everyone and no one working in the kitchen. It is not an impossible dream, it is the promise of Economystics! All we have to do, it is really so simple, is just say a thing that was priced at $10 dollars yesterday is worth $20 today, and vola! $10 dollars for a free lunch.

#13 Nonplused on 05.16.17 at 6:44 pm

“Buying is easy. Selling isn’t. You’ll be asking me about that soon enough.”

Marriage works much the same way.

#14 Pookie on 05.16.17 at 6:50 pm

Hey that’s the train I ride to work! They also filmed scenes from Predator 2 on these trains. The new replacement trains are coming soon from Bombadier. Who knows which train system this is?

#15 Oakville Sucks on 05.16.17 at 6:50 pm

With all the bubbles happening all at once, one cannot imagine the calamity when one bubble pops the other simultaneously while the economy collapses.

Negative interest rates are not too far away followed by a cashless society that according to the media yesterday we are all ready for.

#16 dakkie on 05.16.17 at 6:58 pm

MASSIVE BANK RUN In Canada! – Home Capital Group CRASHES & May Receive Bailout!

http://investmentwatchblog.com/massive-bank-run-in-canada-home-capital-group-crashes-may-receive-bailout/

#17 Dan.t on 05.16.17 at 6:58 pm

Real estate is the end all and be all of Canadian life. Period.

And when money is free, and you can leverage 95% to 100% and chase after the ultimate Canadian goal in life, then nothing will change.

There will always be an endless supply of fools. Real estate sponsored news has everyone brainwashed and if for some reason you don’t read the local paper, don’t worry, you’ll hear about it on HGTV and global, national, or whatever news station. Plus from co-workers, friends, and family.

You are fighting an uphill battle Garth. Nothing will change. Canadians only want real estate at any cost. Period. Screw fundamentals. Nothing else matters. Perfect example, Jake can’t afford it but, don’t worry, he will find a way.

Again, there is an endless supply of brainwashed fools, who can’t afford the real estate they are buying, and then the next wave comes. Never ends.

It full on baffles me.

But nobody and I mean nobody wants this party to end. Look at every policy government has put in place over the years. Free mortgages given to anyone with a pulse backed by tax payers, 0 down, 40 year, BC home grants_ even now 5 year 37k free, fraud is obvious but nothing happens, corruption, everyone looks away, no one will mess with housing. Period. It is the opposite_ it is full on encouraged. Not sure what the end game is but, it’s very confusing.

Good thing Poloz is at the helm and interest rates and free money don’t play a role in unaffordable housing.

Weird every house horny Canadian has had access to virtually free money and has been able to leverage a few grand 95-100% and people wonder why prices are insane. Nothing will change.

#18 rainclouds on 05.16.17 at 6:59 pm

Me renting 2 bed 2 bath condo Yaletown
$2200.00 per month. (Aprox 20% of investment return)

Condo is currently “Valued ” at 850k ,Assume 10% Down Payment

+ $3373.84 Mortgage payment (765k 3 yrs @2.36 )
+ $400 Maintenance.
+ $200 Taxes/ insurance per month
+ $500 per month lost interest from down payment
= $4500.00 Total monthly cost for the “privilege of ownership”

Rent to Price ratio 33

Jake you in?

I’m Gonna take a pass. Watch from the sidelines. Portfolio chugging along at 6%

#19 ouch on 05.16.17 at 7:03 pm

My neighbours bought their semi-detached house at an auction without realising it was semi-detached until after they won (Sydney, Australia).

Some people will spend a maximum of 2 minutes, let alone 11.

#20 SimplyPut7 on 05.16.17 at 7:06 pm

#202 paul on 05.16.17 at 5:43 pm

I was going to write more, about how someone with $3 million was not going to be commuting by TTC, to be packed like sardines in a hot and humid subway car.

But I thought I would let people imagine a world where people with that kind of money, plus money for closing costs and land transfer tax would care enough about their carbon footprint to stand for 30 minutes, 2 inches away from someone they would never talk to for 30 seconds, just have one less car on the road depleting the ozone.

#21 Smartalox on 05.16.17 at 7:08 pm

@ Foreign Capital? #4:

I’m a Gen X’er in Vancouver who missed the boat, and have been renting (the same place) since 2010.

When we moved in, our rent was $1150/mo. Now, 7 years later, it’s $1350. Gas heat and strata fees included. Also a couple of special assessments. Two secured, covered parking spaces. And no term limit on our lease, I checked.

In the same time our household income has doubled, and our investments / savings have easily doubled, too, in the mid six figures. Balanced, diversified, liquid.

Debt? What’s that? We have none.

Our landlord chose to rent his home to us, and move into his elderly parents’ home, to help care for them. We take good care of the place, forward mail, and don’t make too much of a fuss.

Because his home became a rental property in 2010, if he were to sell, the taxable capital gains on the property would include the meteoric rise in the value of the property since then. He probably also has a mortgage or a HELOC on the place, which would also dampen his enthusiasm to sell, since it would eat away at any profit.

So you can see, it IS possible to rent in Vancouver for multiple years, do it well, and not have any regrets.

#22 wannacry on 05.16.17 at 7:13 pm

hey, codpieces are making a comeback, I have a few different colours, and a black one to match my hairpiece.

#23 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 05.16.17 at 7:16 pm

Once a Boss, Always a Boss on 05.16.17 at 6:14 pm
Median House Price to Median Household Income

1. Hong Kong 18.1
2. Sydney 12.1
3. Vancouver 11.8
4. Los Angeles 9.3
5. San Francisco 9.2
6. Greater London 8.5
7. Toronto 7.7
8. New York 5.7
9. Seattle 5.5
10. Boston 5.4
11. Montreal 4.8
12. Tokyo 4.7

Source: Canada’s New Urban Crisis (2017) Richard Florida

A nice illustration of this data was shown yesterday on TV.

Watch the full 30 minute episode online. Show is called “The Agenda” on TVO.

http://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/cities-in-crisis

Toronto will see a sharp housing crash in prices. Toronto is NO New York and not even close to New York. Expect a hard crash in prices. Happy Housing Crash Everyone. :-)

#24 Rifles on 05.16.17 at 7:20 pm

Interview with Marc Cohodes, Home Capital’s nemesis, in a Swiss financial paper. He has some not-so-nice things to say about Canadian real estate generally. Scroll down towards the bottom for the Canada discussion…

https://www.fuw.ch/article/i-focus-on-the-crappiest-companies-i-can-find/

#25 Les Grossman on 05.16.17 at 7:22 pm

As Les Grossman in Tropic Thunder would say ; Big ___ Playyaa!!

Impossible to lose really. Just do it, let those punches fly! The knock out is painless, you only really know after what happened.

#26 For those about to flop... on 05.16.17 at 7:26 pm

#14 Pookie on 05.16.17 at 6:50 pm
Hey that’s the train I ride to work! They also filmed scenes from Predator 2 on these trains. The new replacement trains are coming soon from Bombadier. Who knows which train system this is?

//////////////////////

Hey Pookie,the place where I sourced the photo from stated it was the BART in San Fran.

I liked it because of the unimpressed look on the ladies face in the front row.

Peace ,Flop…

M42BC

#27 ColinColinston on 05.16.17 at 7:26 pm

Good post today – funny but sadly true.

As someone who has been watching the Vancouver market closely over the past six months I can tell you- the east side condo and house market (below $1.6M) is on fire. Almost all offers go well over assessment and sell quick. This I blame on Christy’s ridiculous buyer incentive program.

However, the west side is slow. A friend just put an at ask offer on a west side house that was priced ‘low’ ($2M). The seller, who was hoping for a biding war, couldn’t believe there was only one bid at ask, didn’t take the offer and pulled the listing to try again at a higher price. It will take a while for these sellers to capitulate but they may have to at some point.

I’m curious what will happen once this buyer incentive program runs dry. Open houses are full on the east side with regular looking couples, with average type jobs who appear to be looking to move in. All these folks buying million dollar homes over ask with no subjects exactly like Garth notes in this post. It’s a crazy world out there in this city – really a shame what happened here.

#28 The Wet Coast on 05.16.17 at 7:32 pm

Rent newer 7 year old house in Port Moody with a movie star view, value $ 1.5 million, and rent is $3700 per month. The money is getting about 5% or about $6250 per month before tax. No repairs, no insurance, no property tax and if I don’t like the neighbours I just move to one of the 1500 listings on Craig’s list.. Easy decision.. If there is a significant correction at some point I will buy. Until then, I look ashamed every time someone points out that I am paying someone else’s mortgage. But I am not paying the other things either ;-).

#29 Smartalox on 05.16.17 at 7:36 pm

I’m just going to leave this right here:

“A lot of people in the book are not actually wealthy. The work is really about aspiring to wealth and the influence of affluence and about our values more than what we actually have. David McWilliams, an economist from Ireland, has a great line where he says that debt made us feel rich when actually it made us poor. Behind a lot of this work is wanting to feel rich, and that’s why the boom and the bust is such an important part of this work, because the easy credit gave us the ability to feel rich and to live out these media-driven fantasies, regardless of what we actually had or our ability to pay it back.”

And:

“After the crash it seemed like inequality got worse, and David McWilliams, the economist in the book, said crashes are marketed like we’re all getting poor together, but really it’s an opportunity for the rich to buy the assets of the recently impoverished.”

For Reference:
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/05/greenfield-generation-wealth/526683/

#30 Brian Ripley on 05.16.17 at 7:47 pm

Buying is easy. Selling isn’t. Garth

Post-it-note that observation on your phone.

It applies to all sorts of selling.

I have updated my household debt chart with FDI, GDP and Net Trade overlays. The FDI data for 2016 came out finally, and guess what… Canadian investors would rather buy stuff outside of Canada on a net basis and that trend has been on for 20 years now. Worse yet is that the 2016 data point is similar to the previous “wide” between FDI and FDO.

For every $1 invested into Canada from offshore, $1.27 leaves Canada and looks for yield elsewhere. It’s not that easy to attract offshore money when the deals are better elsewhere.

For those of you scouring the Vancouver market for a “buy” you may want to check with the BC Assessment online database that shows the July 2016 assessment which is the most recent and last July was the SF detached peak. They also provide the last 3 years of sales history if there is any so you can see if the vendor is a flipper or over his head:
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/

#31 Foreign Capital on 05.16.17 at 7:54 pm

#21 Smartalox on 05.16.17 at 7:08 pm
@ Foreign Capital? #4:

I’m a Gen X’er in Vancouver who missed the boat, and have been renting (the same place) since 2010.

When we moved in, our rent was $1150/mo. Now, 7 years later, it’s $1350. Gas heat and strata fees included.
——-

And for those with kids – because at 1350 you have none in your condo – what have they faced?

The facts stand – they have and continue to face 0.6 vacancy rates; renovictions; shift to fixed term leases with jumps after the year; moving school catchments; rising rental rates; and general displacement and instability.

Consider yourself a lucky one – and the anomaly…

#32 Dave on 05.16.17 at 7:59 pm

At the core I blame our Central Bank….ultra low rates for extended periods of time. Inflation is much much higher than 2%…just at you buying power from food, clothes and anything else. Change the rate and things will go back to normal.

#33 cramar on 05.16.17 at 8:10 pm

#199 Smallfry on 05.16.17 at 5:18 pm

Can we see a blog post yet about the price of avocados Garth? First it was the cauliflower, now its the avocados..
Also, what about the news report here in Alberta about the recent rise in credit card delinquencies and rise in foreclosures? I’m just gonna make like Russia and sit back while eating my popcorn!

——————

Avocados!? Perhaps it is an Alberta thing, or else the season for avocados is ending. Last week here in S-W Ontario they were $4 for 5. Sometimes they are $3 on sale.

#34 Linda on 05.16.17 at 8:13 pm

Ooh. Methinks Garth’s reply to ‘Jake’ is just a tad sarcastic & not meant to be followed – sure hope ‘Jake’ understands this……

#35 Snowbird on 05.16.17 at 8:17 pm

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” George Santayana

I lived in Vancouver in the late 1990s and never understood why there were no jobs in high tech and engineering but only in construction. Wages were too low compared to the cost of living. Everybody was saying it was the best place on earth.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/09/19/canadian-debt-to-gdp_n_12108220.html

This article refers to something called a Credit to GDP gap, tracked by the Bank for International Settlements. In recent history Japan (1989), Spain, Ireland (2007) and the USA (2008) experienced inflationary credit bubbles causing real estate values to climb above long trend levels only to reverse to below long trend values and revert to the mean. On a chart it looks like a long sine wave and its coming to Canada.

Today China and Canada have the worst gaps and will experience a correction, along with Australia and New Zealand. Just look at Spain today, 20% unemployment, real estate down 40-50%, low paying jobs.

I currently live in the US earning 2x what I made in Canada with the same cost of living, better weather and lower taxes. It makes sense to me.

Get your heads out of the sand and see the world people.

#36 Steve French on 05.16.17 at 8:17 pm

Hey Smoking Man how’s your yuuuge hero The Donald doing?

aaahahahahehehe

Ya, he’s a real WINNER of a politician!

LOL LOL LOL.

The funniest part is that all the losers in the USA did this to themselves- they actually voted for him!

#37 Fish on 05.16.17 at 8:30 pm

More and more listings on realitor.ca
Even out in the sticks, but I wander
Once the unorganized land, becomes municipal territory, because the government needs money and ropes it in to organize land what will the property tax be like in the near future

#38 Cto on 05.16.17 at 8:38 pm

12 Economystical
That was hilariously true. I have a nephew who thinks exactly that way and he’s got a business degree!

#39 Raj on 05.16.17 at 8:39 pm

According to my observations, the new listings are hitting with the rate of 800/day in the GTA.

#40 Gregor Samsa on 05.16.17 at 8:43 pm

#6 I’m Not Poloz

I think you’re my favourite commentator here.

What we are witnessing in Canada is the complete fleecing of the people in order to protect and enrich “Bay Street.” Companies like Home Capital will be protected and preserved at all costs. Poloz WILL lower interest rates if he has to. Garth has been wrong about interest rates for 5 years running, constantly predicting hikes and they have gone nowhere but down that entire time.

Again this year, Garth predicts rate hikes. I predict a rate cut and working Canadians scarified on the altar to save companies like Home Capital and kick the can a tiny bit further down the road. Idiot Canadians only care about house prices and so no political capital will be lost on a rate cut, even if there are other negative consequences like a lower dollar.

Time will tell who is correct.

#41 millmech on 05.16.17 at 8:43 pm

#4
Nope, no regrets. Best financial move ever to rent rather than own which has led me to be financially independent in my mid forties. No stress about work/jobs/bills just watching the portfolio grow, it only took 14 years to FI.

#42 april on 05.16.17 at 8:44 pm

The problem for a lot of people is that there are too many differing opinions as to what’s going to happen with the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets. People say, is it going up or down?? Depends who’s talking. Does anyone really know??

#43 Welcome to Slurrey on 05.16.17 at 8:46 pm

I hope to be reading this blog next year when prices have softened ( is what i said in 2015) ……………. waiting on the sidelines for real estate to become affordable or “correct”, when will i stop feeling like the greaterfool ? Patience truly is a virtue.

#44 PawPatrol on 05.16.17 at 8:47 pm

Yes I suppose I was coming across smug. Sure, I want to buy a house! But we’ve been fortunate in our current rental, raising 3 small kids in our 4 years in this rental and if we have to move then we deal with that then.
I know I can’t predict a housing correction but I will never buy into the myth that real estate is a runaway train.

#45 NV Landlord on 05.16.17 at 8:59 pm

A great book recently recommended by a blog dog is:
THE WEALTHY RENTER: HOW TO CHOOSE HOUSING TO MAKE YOU RICH. by Alex Avery.
I have just read it cover to cover and am ready to sell our rental condos here in NV, then get that money into a balanced portfolio… I wish I had read it 20 years ago… Our condos are completely paid off but the rental income for us as landlords is the pits because of all the expenses we have to pay. Sure we claim them on our income tax as deductions but they add up and deplete the overall positive cash flow and investment portfolio…

I suggest everyone with house lust dash to the library or book store and read it. You will feel smugly smart.

#46 Armando on 05.16.17 at 9:01 pm

Great advice Garth! ;-) Wouldn’t surprise me if Jake takes it!

#47 I think I know something on 05.16.17 at 9:03 pm

Garth, your past advice to wait has not served your blogees well. Your continued advice to wait will have similar results for the latest batch of moist blogees. People should just bite the bullet and buy. RE in the main Canadian immigration centers will never go down in value.

And I just told ya how. Go knock yourself out. — Garth

#48 Steve on 05.16.17 at 9:04 pm

@”I’m not Poloz” and @Gregor Samsa

I agree with you both.

If we have a 60 cent dollar, than a $1 million toronto house is only worth $600k USD….

And we all pay more for everything else…. Those us who work in jobs with no inflation pass through get hurt the worst….

Unless we own real estate!

Yeah Real Estate!!!!!!!!!!! Keep it going baby!

#49 common sense on 05.16.17 at 9:10 pm

#36 Steve French

Hey Frenchie….don’t be so smug.

Look what Canada voted for.

#50 Smoking Man on 05.16.17 at 9:10 pm

#36 Steve French on 05.16.17 at 8:17 pm
Hey Smoking Man how’s your yuuuge hero The Donald doing?

aaahahahahehehe

Ya, he’s a real WINNER of a politician!

LOL LOL LOL.

The funniest part is that all the losers in the USA did this to themselves- they actually voted for him!

Who said he was my Hero. I just called the election based on Herdonomics.

But do I prefer him over killary. In a heart beat.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-16/murdered-dnc-staffer-seth-rich-shared-44000-emails-wikileaks

But we all know it was the Russians.

#51 NoName on 05.16.17 at 9:13 pm

#33 cramar on 05.16.17 at 8:10 pm
Avocados!?

—–

1st attempt few yrs back to have indoor avocado tree was “almost” successful everything went well until one night younger left hamster cage open…
GROOT#1
http://imgur.com/a/zYSKo

it took many unsuccessful tries over last 3yrs, and some progress is made 2nd “tree” look kind of looks promising. todays pic
GROOT#2
http://imgur.com/a/lcBSA

#52 will on 05.16.17 at 9:16 pm

#36 Steve French

Trump’s main contribution to american society may go down in history as the election when americans finally repudiated the msm. do you even know what i’m talking about?

#53 bobby13 on 05.16.17 at 9:18 pm

Garth you’re wisdom can even appear in a comic way you are multi talented individual.

#54 Smoking Man on 05.16.17 at 9:25 pm

#39 Raj on 05.16.17 at 8:39 pm
According to my observations, the new listings are hitting with the rate of 800/day in the GTA.
…..

It’s accelerating. But who knows what’s going to happen. Got a taste of trying to find a good rental.
It’s ugly out there.

I think I made a mistake selling Shlong Branch. Altho houses are selling slower and less of them. Prices are holding.

You have a group of buyers that think it will go up for ever. Now we have a group of sellers thinking a crash is coming. Sell Prices will be all over the place keeping the average stable.

Conclusion. Stable prices. No price gains and no crash.

#55 Smoking Man on 05.16.17 at 9:28 pm

Too funny, now that I’ve outed myself in a drunken not thought out thrill last night . Look how much better behaved I am.

The night is young.

#56 Rational Optimist on 05.16.17 at 9:28 pm

I just sold a place (pray for me that it closes in a couple of months) in Waterloo Region, for 12% over the listing price, which was lower than most others nearby.

It was the only offer- they believed they were getting in to a “bidding war,” but those are now less common. I’m told by realtors that, in this neck of the woods, the multiple-offer/20%-over-ask stuff is a month behind us. One told me that several of his buyers have had lenders do assessments or appraisals to validate or challenge the buyers’ stupid valuations of properties.

Who knows. My incumbent homeowners friends and colleagues always seem to have a new anecdote about someone who got a bully bid way over their ask. My younger acquaintances who would like to buy increasingly seem fed up, and seem about ready to go on strike.

#57 Chaddywack on 05.16.17 at 9:30 pm

It’s funny. Everything I hear about Vancouver lately is that the market is HOT. Same old tired things especially “The Chinese are back!”

Really? First of all who is “The Chinese.” I’m getting really sick of this refrain.

Secondly, I notice the media in Vancouver hasn’t keyed in a few things that anyone who does their own searching in YVR can see. The rental market has significantly eased. I’ve seen listings balloon (most of them were formerly for sale). I suspect a lot of people were trying to flip and after costs cannot do so anymore so they’ve become reluctant landlords. I actually believe that’s where a bulk of Vancouver’s hidden inventory has gone. Some rental listings are still priced stupidly (or demanding fixed term leases…..get real), but many have lowered their prices.

Thirdly, I don’t notice the media reporting on the YOY declines in sales or prices……but when YOY were stupidly massive increases like last year it was every 2nd story on the media.

Global is the worst for RE pumping, but what do you expect when they’re either sponsored by REmax or mortgage brokers.

Basically newscasts in BC today are mass manipulation:

2 mins top stories (usually involving HOT real estate, HAM or both)

2 mins of lauding Christy Clark and how she “won the election”

5 mins of bashing Donald Trump

1 min of commentary on Justin Trudeau’s hair and how sexy he is

10 mins of real estate and why everyone is priced out forever, but you can still get in somehow

5 mins Rain forecast

5 mins on the saddest team in the NHL/Aquilini’s rental properties

This newcast sponsored by REMax

2 min feel good story on orphaned chow-chows that found a good home.

Then Entertainment Tonight starts and we actually get some believable news!

#58 Blacksheep on 05.16.17 at 9:43 pm

“But there are actually 17% fewer homes for sale than a year ago, dropping active listings to a 20-year low. Yes, by holding back product from the marketplace Vancouver real estate owners are restricting supply and firming prices.”
——————————-
Yes, that damn Demand vs Supply ratio thingy screwing up the market crash, so many have waited years for.

It’s collusion I tell ya…

Here is the bad news Jake: If you can’t afford to buy where your looking, you shouldn’t.

If you must buy RE, get in the car and drive East until the RE prices match what you can afford. I grew up in Delta and I could never afford a detached home in Van, even as fresh journeyman 25 years ago making decent coin.

I have to laugh every time I hear some entitled so and so bitch (not Jake) that the Gov needs to intervene so the little people can buy in Van.

You can’t afford to buy here. Get over it. End of story.

#59 dumpster fire on 05.16.17 at 9:46 pm

Or better yet, buy a property you’ve only seen over FaceTime…

http://torontolife.com/real-estate/chase-spent-1-35-million-house-theyd-never-seen-person/

~ breathe deep

#60 Smoking Man on 05.16.17 at 9:47 pm

The subconscious mind.

Why would I post my real name. Risk my old career, law suits and who knows what crazy lefty loons I’ve triggered over the years that may come after me.

This is why.

Altho it was a small turn out at blog dogapalusa I had many private chats with some cool dogs. Conversations always circled back to my writing and writing style. One dog I shared a cigarette with is framing the butt in his living room.

In all honesty I don’t think I’m that good. In fact I think I’m terrabe. But the dogs at the general store said things to me that changed my life’s direction on the spot.

My son visited us for dinner today. Hes the youngest and smartset.

He tells his mom dad’s not into coding anymore he wants to do his writing that’s all that matters to him. He’s giving bad vibes to potential employers that’s why know one is hiring him.

I said nothing and thought to myself. Kid is good , but not that good.

How the hell am I going to get an interview when I’m not applying for anything.

Nothing else matters. I’ll live in a trailer if need be.

#61 AK on 05.16.17 at 9:49 pm

#36 Steve French on 05.16.17 at 8:17 pm
“Hey Smoking Man how’s your yuuuge hero The Donald doing?
aaahahahahehehe
Ya, he’s a real WINNER of a politician!
LOL LOL LOL.
The funniest part is that all the losers in the USA did this to themselves- they actually voted for him!”
—————————————————————–
He will be there another 8 years.

Deal with It….

#62 Al on 05.16.17 at 9:58 pm

Lololololol

Wow garthosaurus. Super sarcastic reply at the end. Funny. I likea it.

#63 Pete on 05.16.17 at 10:05 pm

HOME CAPITAL GIC FELL RECORD $56 MILLION ON MAY 15

Home Capital just reported their May 15 liquidity position. Liquidity fell $30 million to $880 million. GIC fell a record $56 million. Demand deposits fell $9 million.

Poloz said Home crisis is over, I think it is just beginning.

Total deposits fell $65 million; however, liquidity only fell $30 million. There is only one explanation: they have completely stopped issuing mortgages. They made new mortgage loans of $9 billion last year, that is about $30 million a day.

So in fact, they are already out of the new mortgage business.

#64 Pete from St. Cesaire on 05.16.17 at 10:13 pm

Median House Price to Median Household Income
1. Hong Kong 18.1
2. Sydney 12.1
3. Vancouver 11.8
4. Los Angeles 9.3
5. San Francisco 9.2
6. Greater London 8.5
7. Toronto 7.7
8. New York 5.7
9. Seattle 5.5
10. Boston 5.4
11. Montreal 4.8
———————————
Now you see why Montrealers have a lot more discretionary income than those from T.O. & Van.

#65 data on 05.16.17 at 10:21 pm

Does anyone have the total value of BC housing assessments and total of all of Canada?

It would be interesting to see the Total Household Debt/Total Housing Value, etc, etc….

Garth if BC has 100B in total real estate sales a year, that is ~ 5B in comm paid out, how many realtors are sharing in this, what is the avg slice of the pie worth?

If you start to look at the total number and the people involved, you can start to understand the impact on folks from lower VOLUME and not always have to worry about predicating prices, rates, etc…

Please focus on this anyone?

#66 Boombust on 05.16.17 at 10:24 pm

#57 Chaddtwack

Absolutely bang on! Global…what a joke.

And, you’re, the Metro Vancouver market is NOT HOT, Garth. Your buying $$$ goes a LOT farther than at this same time last year. It really IS “a flight to quality” with price reductions all over town.

Al smoke and mirrors.

#67 Smoking Man on 05.16.17 at 10:29 pm

Why is there not a happy wives day, a happy husband day.

The globalist lesbionic forces of per evil don’t want that story told.

And then there is SM could be an acronym. super man or shit man, or stupid man.

Keep telling myself. write bastard, keep writing. No money in it for you, but it’s the right thing to do.

#68 For those about to flop... on 05.16.17 at 10:31 pm

Hey Chaddywack ,good post, reminds me of the post I wrote this morning…

M42BC

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

For those about to flop… on 05.16.17 at 11:37 am
A couple of months ago I pointed out that a lot of the more affordable houses in Vancouver proper are languishing on the market and this is a sign that things are not back to where they were in the past.

If you go to Zolo and put the price limit of 1.3m on detached properties,42 options will come up.

Of these options a fair whack of them have been for sale over a month and this is kind of irrelevant as some of fresher ones are actually going around for the second or third time.

As for price reductions, same thing.Only 6 have the official reduced sticker but a lot of them have had price reductions upon being re-listed to not draw any attention, which is the opposite of what you think they would want.

Amazingly a couple of these houses are in my Pink Snow/ Pollen folder as well and so even with a motivated seller there is still not a deal to be done.

I don’t expect it to be front page news or the leading story on the 6 o,clock news every time someone loses 100k on a real estate sale but the reporting could be more balanced of course but we all know the motivation for that.

Woeful T.V has started to run its real estate fluff pieces again without doing any fact checking and so at the moment it pretty much goes…

Bash Trump for 5 minutes

Real Estate fluff piece 3 minutes

Some cute, cuddly animals rolling around in the hay 2 minutes

Sport 5 minutes

Weather 5 minutes

5 ,2 minute add breaks mainly containing real estate stuff now that the election propaganda adds are done with for a while…gotta get the revenues back up…

M42BC

/////////////////////////////////////

Chaddywack on 05.16.17 at 9:30 pm
It’s funny. Everything I hear about Vancouver lately is that the market is HOT. Same old tired things especially “The Chinese are back!”

Really? First of all who is “The Chinese.” I’m getting really sick of this refrain.

Secondly, I notice the media in Vancouver hasn’t keyed in a few things that anyone who does their own searching in YVR can see. The rental market has significantly eased. I’ve seen listings balloon (most of them were formerly for sale). I suspect a lot of people were trying to flip and after costs cannot do so anymore so they’ve become reluctant landlords. I actually believe that’s where a bulk of Vancouver’s hidden inventory has gone. Some rental listings are still priced stupidly (or demanding fixed term leases…..get real), but many have lowered their prices.

Thirdly, I don’t notice the media reporting on the YOY declines in sales or prices……but when YOY were stupidly massive increases like last year it was every 2nd story on the media.

Global is the worst for RE pumping, but what do you expect when they’re either sponsored by REmax or mortgage brokers.

Basically newscasts in BC today are mass manipulation:

2 mins top stories (usually involving HOT real estate, HAM or both)

2 mins of lauding Christy Clark and how she “won the election”

5 mins of bashing Donald Trump

1 min of commentary on Justin Trudeau’s hair and how sexy he is

10 mins of real estate and why everyone is priced out forever, but you can still get in somehow

5 mins Rain forecast

5 mins on the saddest team in the NHL/Aquilini’s rental properties

This newcast sponsored by REMax

2 min feel good story on orphaned chow-chows that found a good home.

Then Entertainment Tonight starts and we actually get some believable news!

#69 Fish on 05.16.17 at 10:41 pm

The only one that is smiling 3 down and to the right, with a window seat,cute

#70 Trump on 05.16.17 at 10:47 pm

cracks in the armour. Did they close his twitter account yet? HOW did this guy get voted in?

futures looking ugly. It’s early but an impeachment would snap the markets

#71 rates vs capital on 05.16.17 at 10:48 pm

#57 Chaddywack

It’s funny. Everything I hear about Vancouver lately is that the market is HOT. Same old tired things especially “The Chinese are back!”

Really? First of all who is “The Chinese.” I’m getting really sick of this refrain.

——–

You must really have your head in the sand – or do not live in the Metro Vancouver area. I really think its the latter as you would have to have such an insular view as to not either see or experience the influence of foreign capital from China if you were living in Vancouver.

Just as you are sick of hearing about the ‘Chinese’, many Vancouverites are sick of constantly reading about the influence of capital from China, and even sicker that people try to obfuscate the issue by levelling claims of racism when the issue is discussed.

Do a little due diligence, and maybe read a few mainstream and alternative sites – its a little thing called research. But hey, I will get you started as this is a tiny sample of the data out there.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/chinese-real-estate-investors-are-reshaping-the-market/

http://www.nsnews.com/news/foreign-buyers-big-spenders-in-west-van-prior-to-15-tax-1.12485427#sthash.K274QvvS.dpuf

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/incomeless-students-spent-57-million-on-vancouver-homes-in-past-two-years/article31892652/

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/in-a-six-month-period-70-of-detached-homes-sold-in-vancouvers-west-side-went-to-mainland-china-buyers

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2048798/vancouvers-mayor-never-dreamed-foreign-funded

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2091356/china-reveals-foreign-addresses-corruption-suspects

http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1929324/study-reveals-awfulness-canadian-investor-immigration-income-tax

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/more-and-more-chinese-cases-target-property-in-b-c-say-lawyers

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/seizures-of-undeclared-cash-spike-at-vancouver-international-airport/article31787802/

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/were-not-realtors-former-wholesaler-reveals-hidden-dark-side-of-vancouvers-red-hot-real-estate-market

http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1440792/immigration-property-prices-and-vancouver-experts-view

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/05/hedge-city-vancouver-chinese-foreign-capital

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/vancouvers-foreign-buyer-tax-didnt-stop-real-estate-sales-china-did/

http://www.nsnews.com/news/foreign-buyers-big-spenders-in-west-van-prior-to-15-tax-1.12485427#sthash.K274QvvS.dpuf

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/incomeless-students-spent-57-million-on-vancouver-homes-in-past-two-years/article31892652/

#72 Pete on 05.16.17 at 10:49 pm

Median House Price to Median Household Income
1. Hong Kong 18.1
2. Sydney 12.1
3. Vancouver 11.8
4. Los Angeles 9.3
5. San Francisco 9.2
6. Greater London 8.5
7. Toronto 7.7
8. New York 5.7
9. Seattle 5.5
10. Boston 5.4
11. Montreal 4.8

=====================
This is wrong.
According to Statscan, Toronto median housing hold income was $75k in 2014. Let’s assume $80k in 2017, average house price including condo is $1 million, so Toronto is 12.5 times.

Similarly, Vancouver is 15 times. So Toronto at 12.5 times and Vancouver at 15 times is really the HIGHEST in the free world.

#73 InvestorsFriend on 05.16.17 at 10:56 pm

On Home Capital

Good observation by Pete just above that they may not be issuing mortgages at this time (Also who would take one from them? They might not be in business when your home purchase closed in a month or certainly when your mortgage renews)

I believe what Poloz said was that the Home Capital situation was contained to Home Capital and would not spread. He said, in an attempt to impress with big words, it was “idiosyncratic”. I believe he also said he would not rule out a bail out but did not promise one. If it comes to a bail out, I’d expect all depositors to be made whole but common share owners might not get much.

It is commonly said that the U.S. banks were bailed out. But share holders of Washington Mutual and Wachovia and others were totally wiped out. It was the executives and the depositors that got bailed out. Bank of America and some other large U.S. banks have never seen their share prices fully recover as yet.

#74 april on 05.16.17 at 11:03 pm

#57 Absolutely agree. You’ve got it. Garth is right though. Condo sellers have raised their asking prices for the same crap, at least at the lower end, that one could buy for around the 200 thous mark last yr is now well up over 250 and upwards. I’m referring to the New West/Coquitlam/Burnaby areas probably all based on last yrs assessments and with that woman Christy’s help the assessments will probably be higher next yr unless we see a big decline. According to Ross Kay we’re in a correction now, but MSN will continue to pump so the fools keep rushing in. I have no sympathy for them. I hope Garth is right that a lot more people will be trying to get out very soon.

#75 Suede on 05.16.17 at 11:05 pm

Bought a house last summer.

Wife is happy.

Now she doesn’t complain about the portfolio.

People now telling us how bad our rental house was and they couldn’t believe we rented and we’re paying off someone’s equity bla bla bla.

Life is good. Health is wealth people.

#76 Entrepreneur on 05.16.17 at 11:15 pm

Had to do a double read/take on the 3 reminders when buying, like what but then realize it was a funny, lol.

Logical thinking is out the door and has been for awhile with the low interest rates and that feeling of being rich.

Noticed on the local news that Kristy had a bunch of people behind her when she was talking to media and someone was directing her on the side while JK was alone when he talked. He doesn’t need propping like Kristy.

#77 Just do it on 05.16.17 at 11:20 pm

The best line ever. Make my day…

Your starting to lose it with these people (fools)…just like this guy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAnC8qPRwWw

#78 For those about to flop... on 05.16.17 at 11:20 pm

Hey SWL1976 ,at least your not the only person on here that has plagiarized one of my posts.

At least you did the right thing and apologized ,which I accepted.

I’m an idiot from Tasmania,but at least I have my own stupid thoughts…

M42BC

#79 DON on 05.16.17 at 11:31 pm

#21 Smartalox on 05.16.17 at 7:08 pm

@ Foreign Capital? #4:

I’m a Gen X’er in Vancouver who missed the boat, and have been renting (the same place) since 2010.

So you can see, it IS possible to rent in Vancouver for multiple years, do it well, and not have any regrets.

*********************
@Nicely put Smartalox, Gen X as well.

@ Foreign Capital –
Lived in Vancouver in the 90’s and early 2000’s. Back then to get a mortgage you had to have a good wage (5yrs solid work) in order to qualify for a mortgage. Remember: the boomers were mid career in a downsizing environment, not a lot of solid jobs for first time home buyers. I saw Vancouver take off – a friend paid 400K for an old house in Dunbar people were shocked and then all of a sudden all the locals started buying houses – it was almost as if they knew something was coming. I left the City for other adventures and never looked back. Yes could have stayed and even retired early…assuming I wasn’t a delusional Vancouverite and caught up in the hype (hard not to get caught up in the hype, if everyone around you is doing it…right). Yes the foreign capital is a catalyst. If you look back in history the late 80’s bubble had a Japanese element to it. BUT…

Nothing last forever, and a foreign buyer tax would not stop rich foreigners from buying in Vancouver if they thought they could achieve endless games. I do know of several Vancouverites (citizens) owning multiple properties. Everything has it limits even Tulips. Human nature repeats if left unchecked, not everyone can cash out of the Van Market. AND why the downturn in real estate, I mean it is definitely down from the last few years, the frenzy has ended…it takes a bit for the main heard to take notice – Home Capital has sent some negative shock waves through the house horny. Will Vancity be in the headlines soon?. What type of government goes to China pumping real estate. And why isn’t Vancouver booming like the good old days. Are people just taking a break from real estate before the next leg of the real estate frenzy takes off? What will house prices be in two more years? Will wages be going up to compensate for increases in house values? How is the Canadian economy doing? Why didn’t the governments in Spain, Ireland, and the US etc stop their bubbles from bursting, especially the mighty US? Why are mortgage delinquencies rising in Alberta? I thought it was suppose to be short downturn, all the papers told us so. Now daily we are bombarded with feel good news followed by the nasty truth? After every great booze fest is a hang over and only the lucky escape. Prove with stats that I am wrong…cause for the last little while the stats have failed the Great Canadian Housing Boom.

But since Garth has kindly provided the 3 conditions on the path to serenity – I am fully equipped and finally convinced to jump into this HOT housing market. Dam the temporary peak, it’s really only a brief blip, houses will exponentially increase in value forever. My mom said so and she knows everything! Besides what could go wrong everyone is doing it – so it must be fool proof. I will sign up tomorrow. How much should I borrow for a 1980’s piece of shit in Langford BC. 1.5 – 2 million ? Or should I borrow more and buy a new house on the side of a major highway 3-5Million? I mean the realtor says it has an unobstructed view of the island highway. I mean no one can ever build in front of me. Please advise! You comments would be valuable to some extent!

#80 bdwy sktrn on 05.16.17 at 11:33 pm

mark this date – the trump bump is about to deflate.

let the ‘pricing out’ of the trump tax measures commence.

15-20% shaved off eq’s starting tomorrow.

gonna be a bad summer for stocks.

#81 Protea on 05.16.17 at 11:38 pm

#64 Pete from St. Cesaire You are 100% Correct about people in Montreal having more disposable income then most other Canadian cities.

My son is a prime example ,he is a school teacher who could never see himself owning a home in GVA but in less than 7 yrs owns 2 homes in Montreal one in NDG and the other in Beconsfield both lovely areas . Vancouver is truly screwed and although beautiful when we see the sun , one sees a lot of unhappy faces everywhere.

#82 Keith on 05.16.17 at 11:49 pm

One thing is clear from reading the comments. There doesn’t seem to be much consensus about what the data is telling us. Big picture, I know that real estate tracks income growth and that a regression to the mean is overdue.

#83 DON on 05.16.17 at 11:57 pm

#43 Welcome to Slurrey on 05.16.17 at 8:46 pm

I hope to be reading this blog next year when prices have softened ( is what i said in 2015) ……………. waiting on the sidelines for real estate to become affordable or “correct”, when will i stop feeling like the greaterfool ? Patience truly is a virtue.
******************

The guys in the Big Short were sweating as well, their patience paid off. Besides the alternative is becoming an instant debt slave with increasing costs and unable to pick up an leave for different opportunities. Yikes! Patience is a virtue.

#84 Vanfam on 05.17.17 at 12:09 am

Garth,
I am one of the “priced out” families in Vancouver. We have been looking for a sfh in East Van for …3 years. Yes that’s right. We earn very good incomes grossing us over $325k year. We have a decent down payment of $325k yet we have bid on over 20 properties in the 1.2 -1.5 million range and been outbid every single time. We always bid over ask, no inspection, no subjects. I can tell you first hand that every house on the East side is going for hundreds of thousands over ask. Tear downs going for 1.4, basics going for 1.5-1.6, pretty ones 1.7-1.8, new builds 2.2-2.5. Sellers are fearless, buyers have zero leverage. It is insanity, but it goes on and on- year 4 of this. Houses that went for 900k in 2013 are now going for 1.6
There are no words for the frustration we feel.

#85 Chaddywack on 05.17.17 at 12:22 am

@68 flop

Hilarious man! Didn’t see your original post, but we’re definitely on the same wavelength! That’s too funny! I’m glad I’m not the only one that has noticed the extreme bias of Global. Looking forward to some new pink pollen reports soon to be transitioning to pink lemonade. Summer is so close I can taste it.

@ #71 rates

I’ve lived in the Vancouver area my entire life and just recently moved to Calgary. I’m not going to deny that there are foreign buyers, but my argument has been that rich millionaires are buying the $5M+ houses, not the lower valued ones.

I would say that the foreign tax was effective because it reduced speculation in the market from domestics. It put up a psychological barrier to their thinking.

I appreciate your links, but I would also state for a counterbalance that I know a guy at my former workplace in Vancouver who mortgaged his $3/3.5M West Van house (not HAM) and bought three East van houses for about $1.2 each. I know two of my cousins who just jumped into condos the last two months for $600k (studio apartments downtown about 660 sq ft), I know my aunts and uncles who own 3-4 houses each mostly bought in the last 3-5 years. BTW I’m a 100% “white” (HATE that term btw) Canadian born middle class guy and my family is too. They are overextended in real estate, so it’s not all money from China, not even close. How many other domestic families like mine are knee deep in housing because of the hype surrounding it?

I’m just saying that this housing situation is multi-factorial and cannot solely be attributed to Chinese. The nearly perfect correlation of interest rates/mortgage debt to the rise in house prices also does not persuade me that this market is moving on a few rich foreigners from China. Funny I never see any story on rich Russians (Hot Russian Money) and believe me there are a few of them in Vancouver.

I dated a HRM’s daughter once in my pre-married days. 5’10” blonde and stacked…damn!, but I didn’t want to end up in cement shoes at the bottom of the Burrard Inlet….my gut was telling me that something wasn’t on the up & up with daddy!

#86 "A primer on suicidal investing in just a moment." on 05.17.17 at 12:26 am

Turner, you are the highlight of my morning news read from the web, hands down, no contest.

Mercifully, I did not have a mouthful of espresso when reading the above quote…but, only by mere seconds did I escape from having to clean it from my desktop monitor screen.

#87 Hold on Meow on 05.17.17 at 12:37 am

Watch 4:00-6:00 of this video and ask yourself if this seems “responsible.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=c3yxs-xwQfw&sns=em

#88 SWL1976 on 05.17.17 at 12:40 am

#78 For those about to flop…

Hey SWL1976 ,at least your not the only person on here that has plagiarized one of my posts.

========

Now that takes me back. Funny enough I was just thinking about the days when I had plenty of time to burn and lots to say here in the comments section. Lately I’ve been too busy slinging pizza here at our new pizza shop to do much more than read Garth’s post everyday and skim the comments section.

I sure am glad I am not looking to either buy or rent a place around here on the Island as neither sounds like much fun to me. Not much for sale and even less for rent from the chatter I hear

Hopefully your foot gets feeling better soon there flopper

#89 yorkville renter on 05.17.17 at 1:01 am

#72 – Pete – I agree 100%. I called bullshit as soon as I saw that multiple. Median Family Income in Toronto is quite low, especially compared to prices… this is the simplest reason to know that buying now is a huge mistake

#90 Learner on 05.17.17 at 1:52 am

#122 Renter’s Revenge! on 05.13.17 at 9:20 am

#128 Livin Large on 05.13.17 at 10:09 am

Thank you both for answering my question about dividend.

Really appreciate it.

#91 sorry, vancouver is on fire on 05.17.17 at 2:03 am

I just spoke to a recent retiree tonight. Listed his place in North Van and was hoping to get 440 for it. First showing was supposed to be this weekend but the realtor called yesterday with a client who wanted an early viewing. Place sold immediately for 460 with no subjects. This is a one bedroom condo in an old building.

#92 Economystical on 05.17.17 at 2:37 am

#38 Cto

Hilariously true???? No, it’s true. By changing the numbers we actually can change the reality. We are all rich now, so long as we’ve bought something on credit.

#93 Myra Andrews on 05.17.17 at 2:43 am

Posted today by Vancouver realtor paulb

New 257
Price Change55
Sold 325
TI:8609 (total inventory)

#94 paulo on 05.17.17 at 3:21 am

meanwhile in barrie ont, one of areas frequented by speckers, refuges and the ones smart enough to have bailed the GTA,i am hearing from friends in real estate biz that spring has brought some nasty surprises: crickets at open houses,bidding wars vanished,big jump in listings notable absence of buyers, and plenty of agents trying to backstop previously done deals from unwinding. also a growing number of rentals unloved that where purchased by speckers that for some strange reason thought they could get GTA rents here
and are now in panic mode cant handle the real world negative cash flow that is the reality.
plenty of lessons playing out,the big heat of summer is coming. i think this summer will be remembered as the one that the real estate music stopped,and the BBQ will be epic.

#95 paulo on 05.17.17 at 3:34 am

#72 pete
a good Chinese friend of mine with significant experience in real estate in HK mentioned that about 80% of the residential real estate is essentially goverment controlled by either rent control or subsidy so the 18+ figure reflects the fact that only 20% is free market

#96 paulo on 05.17.17 at 3:45 am

investors take note on etf’s and other investments.
be on the look out for and avoid any play that includes
secured Canadian residential mortgages,i am hearing that the big five are cleaning there books and cleaning house.
even if its triple “a” rated its high risk and in my opinion junk bond status. if you are using a bank investment service to handle your investments you should direct your rep to exclude any investment that has exposure to these instruments. make sure you are not blindly being put into play on this crap.

#97 Vancouver on 05.17.17 at 3:46 am

Chaddywack # 57
you are right about Globe and Mail. I canceled my subscription a month ago and they begged me to stay for a lover monthly cost. I wouldn’t read their useless articles for free… As for the real estate articles, they used to have some good ones from Kathy Thomlinson. What happened to her lately?

#98 Pulp Faction on 05.17.17 at 3:51 am

““We’re first time buyers and went into the market looking for a townhouse in Burnaby and New Westminster this year,” he says. “At the beginning, we thought we could afford something. Unfortunately we were outbid twice by big margins in 10+ offers wars. Once these properties are sold at such high prices, the surrounding areas follow similar price points and would be difficult to come back down. So now, I can’t even become a greater fool even if I wanted to.”

This is why Vancouver is so expensive. It’s full of dimwits. Upset that someone else bid much higher, tries harder to bid even higher yet, questions why Vancouver is so expensive.

#99 Nick on 05.17.17 at 5:31 am

Mr. Turner, I find it simply amazing that you’ve been able to write about the same subject, day in, day out for so many years!

#100 Victor V on 05.17.17 at 7:13 am

The Chase: They spent $1.35 million on a house they’d never seen in person

http://torontolife.com/real-estate/chase-spent-1-35-million-house-theyd-never-seen-person/

#101 Wrk.dover on 05.17.17 at 7:20 am

Consider this. How much money do you realistically plan on earning between now and when you pay off a house.

Now deduct the tax you must pay on that.

How much do you really want to be spending on that house now? (Written sitting on the couch in my $18,000 1981 self build on a fine sunny morning)

#102 Cto on 05.17.17 at 7:26 am

Rates vs Capital

I’m trying to understand this poster.
I don’t think this person is trying to Prime the bubble for self-interests. I think this person truly believes that there is an outside influence controlling the metrics of Toronto and Vancouver real estate. Anecdotally it peers to be that a lot of communities are made up of ethnic new Canadians or potentially new immigrants or those that are not living within our country with empty homes.
I’m not sure if this poster is right or not.
Regardless could it really hurt if we did legislate stronger laws to control foreign ownership in our country.
It seems other countries have very very strong laws.
Why are we so lax.?

Yes, those pesky “ethnic new Canadians.” They are citizens, just like you. Deal with it. — Garth

#103 Trumpocalypse2017 on 05.17.17 at 7:40 am

7 DAYS AND COUNTING!!!!

Congress demands documents from FBI.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/16/politics/jason-chaffetz-letter-to-fbi/index.html

May 24. Or else.

Trump is desperately seeking international military conflict to distract from all this.

War by this time next week.

PREPARE!

#104 maxx on 05.17.17 at 8:00 am

#24 Rifles on 05.16.17 at 7:20 pm

“Interview with Marc Cohodes, Home Capital’s nemesis, in a Swiss financial paper. He has some not-so-nice things to say about Canadian real estate generally. Scroll down towards the bottom for the Canada discussion…

https://www.fuw.ch/article/i-focus-on-the-crappiest-companies-i-can-find/

Totally agree.

Unlike most Canadians, he can see the forest. Clearly.
When, not if, the yowling starts in earnest, the world stage will see a complete laughing stock, dressed in red and white. Not only did Canada have the chance to avoid this gory mess, it might possibly have been in the top spot from an economic health perspective. No more – we’re sliding down a greased chute.
No matter how much cash is thrown at shadow lenders, others or re in general, the end result will be the same. Huge and growing fruitless waste.
Globalization and global pricing, no matter how much a darling of tptb, will not be without major bumps and black swans.
Printing with a foaming-at-the-mouth intensity, tax credits up the yin-yang as tax revenues are in serious decline and backstop “investing” of MMM$ from employee pension plans seems the way to go.
Global pricing at any price.
There’s an invisible claw in your wallet, ripping away your wealth, even if you stand on the sidelines.

#105 TurnerNation on 05.17.17 at 8:03 am

Err have to say it: Got gold?

Dollarama might have competition. But chain retail really is a real estate play: location, lease terms.

http://www.blogto.com/fashion_style/2017/05/japanese-dollarama-competitor-miniso-opening-toronto/

#106 Vit on 05.17.17 at 8:09 am

#99 best post of today

#107 Smoking Man on 05.17.17 at 8:17 am

What MSM will tell you. Trump is Bad

What they won’t tell you.

Murdered Seth Rich was the WikiLeaks source for the DNC emails.

They are silent on the amount of blue dots exploding on the Realtor.ca

Who do you trust for the truth?

#108 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 05.17.17 at 8:45 am

Trading Notes:

I am now 100% sold out of USD longs in my portfolio. DXY (USD$) has now erased ALL OF IT’S GAINS since the Trump election. Purchased CAD due to CL (Oil) strength.

Purchased international equity funds: ATB211, MAW250 and ATB203/ATB204.

Still advising clients to sell USD and not buy into the US S&P markets but into global equities (minus USA).

#109 [email protected] on 05.17.17 at 8:45 am

hahaha great article Garth!
Keep them coming!

#110 Pete on 05.17.17 at 8:46 am

To #95 Paulo:

30% Hong Kong’s housing is owned by the government and are rented to people at low cost. These apartments are usually very small and the wait is many years.

Housing in Hong Kong is much more unaffordable than in Toronto. But I would not include HK in the comparison. HK has lost its autonomy and is now completely under Communist China rule. So it is not part of us (the West) any more.

#111 Vit on 05.17.17 at 8:51 am

In 2008 when US market collapsed I got nervous and sold my home in GTA and rented a semi. When you have a family you have to stay near kids school. That is when I realize home is more then just an equity . IN rental you cant customize place to your need ( why would you spend $$$ on something that is not yours ) never mind I replaced a filthy carpet with laminate from my pocket because if moving to rental is your idea you have to keep every body happy . Issues with parking 3 cars on a small driveway . Your dont feel like inviting your friends for a BBQ because you dont even have a deck , dealing with next door neighbor who swear and screams at his wife every 5 min and your kids can hear all of it . ….
So renting again no thanks . If you a single guy may be for a short term but not for a family . ..

If you bought the house you rented, the issues would remain and you might not be able to sell. What a silly comment. You just picked a bad property. — Garth

#112 Tater on 05.17.17 at 8:58 am

#20 SimplyPut7 on 05.16.17 at 7:06 pm
#202 paul on 05.16.17 at 5:43 pm

I was going to write more, about how someone with $3 million was not going to be commuting by TTC, to be packed like sardines in a hot and humid subway car.

But I thought I would let people imagine a world where people with that kind of money, plus money for closing costs and land transfer tax would care enough about their carbon footprint to stand for 30 minutes, 2 inches away from someone they would never talk to for 30 seconds, just have one less car on the road depleting the ozone.
——————————————————————
I know a few people who fit this description. 3mio+ house, but take the subway to work. Generally, they are going in early and leaving later than the masses. Subway is quick and quiet.

#113 cramar on 05.17.17 at 9:08 am

#84 Vanfam on 05.17.17 at 12:09 am

Garth,
I am one of the “priced out” families in Vancouver. We have been looking for a sfh in East Van for …3 years. Yes that’s right. We earn very good incomes grossing us over $325k year. We have a decent down payment of $325k yet we have bid on over 20 properties in the 1.2 -1.5 million range and been outbid every single time. We always bid over ask, no inspection, no subjects. I can tell you first hand that every house on the East side is going for hundreds of thousands over ask. Tear downs going for 1.4, basics going for 1.5-1.6, pretty ones 1.7-1.8, new builds 2.2-2.5. Sellers are fearless, buyers have zero leverage. It is insanity, but it goes on and on- year 4 of this. Houses that went for 900k in 2013 are now going for 1.6
There are no words for the frustration we feel.

=============

So why do you play the game? Why not just walk away from the house lust nonsense and continue to calmly build your portfolio? You plan to retire someday right? Screw the house. You can buy one for cash in future in a better location. Build your career with the goal of living anywhere.

#114 Looney Baloney on 05.17.17 at 9:09 am

All this talk about a temporary drop in listing/prices/sales are irrelevant in the current content of low interest rates.

The math is really simple:
– our current interest rate environment punts savers and rewards borrowers.
– mortgages and margin accounts serve the same purpose in low interest rate environments- borrow at a lower rate, invest, wait for a bit for asset price to rise (not inherent growth, merely other borrowers throwing money in and driving prices up as the asset pool shrinks), then sell at a profit
– a lot more people know of mortgages than margin accounts, leading to astronomical rise in house prices
– temporary fluctuations in prices are irrelevant without a meaningful discussion and path forward for interest rates to rise.
– when the yield on interest rates rises above the yield in asset price gains over the same given time period, asset prices will automatically revert to the mean, once again leading to the historical norm and fiscally sound policy of rewarding savers and punting borrowers.

This blog could save on all the digital ink wasted in speculating when house prices will correct (hint – they won’t) and provide actual value to readers by:
– discussing employing leverage to building a balanced and diversified real estate portfolio outside REITs in the same manner it professes for stawks
– leverage the diversity and financial accumen of the blog’s readership to promote and lobby for the raising of interest rates to the federal government.

The articles presented here with their anecdotal evidence, humorous as they are, serve no purpose other than riling up the angst of savers and renters.

#115 Looney Baloney on 05.17.17 at 9:17 am

#101

Ponder this. How much time do you realistically plan on working to earn the same amount of windfall gains you will realize simply from buying real estate.

Now realize the gains will be tax free.

How much do you really want to work your ass off now?

Nobody makes windfall gains from buying real estate. Only selling, after an increase in value. Now is the time for selling, not buying. — Garth

#116 Looney Baloney on 05.17.17 at 9:18 am

#100 – smart. It’s a sure bet, like putting money down on loaded dice.

#117 Looney Baloney on 05.17.17 at 9:24 am

#98 it’s not dimwits that’s the problem, they have always been with us and will continue to be. It’s easy money.

#118 AK on 05.17.17 at 9:35 am

31 Rainsford Road, Markham

Listed:

May 04, 2017 @ $1,189,000.00

May 17, 2017 @ $1,080,000.00

#119 Looney Baloney on 05.17.17 at 9:36 am

Here’s a novel idea – a stock market for houses.
– The sale price of a house could be broken down into the same #of stocks, i.e., a house of 2 million will have 2 million shares.
– The primary buyer will have to beg, borrow or steal to pony up 51% of the purchase price, thus retaining title ownership.
– The rest is traded publicly, giving everyone an opportunity to invest. Ticker symbol could be the domain name the agent setup to promote the listing.
– agent commission will be paid in stocks, thus creating buy-in
– When the title holder decides to sell, he finds a buyer for the current price of his stock. When the sale completes, the stocks split in such a manner that the price of each share reverts to $1 again.
– ETFs could be setup based on total index, neighborhood, city, province etc. It’s all location, location, location baby! Now we’re talking.

Houses are shelter. You are a dink. — Garth

#120 WTC7 on 05.17.17 at 9:41 am

#107 Smoking Man on 05.17.17 at 8:17 am

What MSM will tell you. Trump is Bad

What they won’t tell you.

Murdered Seth Rich was the WikiLeaks source for the DNC emails.

They are silent on the amount of blue dots exploding on the Realtor.ca

Who do you trust for the truth?
.
Breitbart and zerohedge are the only hope against the endless tyranny of the commies and the clinton crime family. Long may Trump run.

#121 Prairieboy43 on 05.17.17 at 9:52 am

“Houses are shelter. You are a dink. — Garth”

Lol !!!

PB43

#122 Mortgage Fraud on 05.17.17 at 9:54 am

#110 Looney Baloney

There are so many variables missing from your math. First and foremost of all, mortgage fraud. Secondly, domestic speculators (not foreign) that use leverage from primary residence to buy up other properties. Leveraged up the ying yang. Everybody has been doing this, Ma and Pa, and cousin Vinny, and everyone else. Many of these people post on this blog, ever more nervously lately, I might add. There are others who used to post frequently on here, who are now too busy unloading their spec properties since they know the HCG debacle is the trigger that will take down this market. GUARANTEED. Read this:

https://twitter.com/goladyjustice/status/864564165444349956

#123 Mortgage Fraud on 05.17.17 at 10:02 am

Are you paying attention to these names? You may want to keep a record and one day write a book about how the world’s greatest RE bubble came crashing down. Top villain: Stephen ‘Subprime’ Smith:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DACDcJsXYAEomW_.jpg:large

#124 Musty Basement Dweller on 05.17.17 at 10:09 am

Awesome post today love the sharp sarcasm thank you Garth.

#125 traderJim on 05.17.17 at 10:15 am

I can see it now, all the impatient buyers finally jumping in to buy as the market declines.

Then we get to hear them complain for the next 20 years that prices refuse to go up.

Contrary to realtor propaganda they ARE making more land. Land for new developments becomes available regularly (although slowed by bureaucrats and enviro-nutcases of course).

Demand from new immigrants is easily offset by growing housing supply. If it isn’t, the only reason that would be the case is if government is making it impossible for developers to develop. Always a possibility.

How much of Canada is occupied? 5%? Our population could be ten times what it is, easily. But it never will be. As wealth increases people tend to have less kids.

I drove through parts of Markham recently, visiting my lovely niece’s new pad. New buildings going up as far as the eye can see. And then I drove for 30 minutes due north and saw nothing but farmland. I could have driven another 30 hours probably and seen nothing but vacant land.

Really nice vacant land, btw. And the odd huge estate with wrought iron gates. Either farmers are making bank or bankers are making farms.

#126 TSX on 05.17.17 at 10:15 am

officially red ytd…finally. Needed Trump’s help, but the country’s fundamental are setting the stage

knew i’d have my day in the sun. Just beginning

#127 TorontoOrBust on 05.17.17 at 10:23 am

And I quote..

“for those who need to or want to become a homeowner in heated cities.”

Why, oh Why oh WHY…!!

See that is the problem with the housing market and a lot of other financial markets out there- you are competing with morons. You think the average ‘punters’ are like you – mainly having a decent amount of common sense and the ability to draw logic on when to pull the trigger and when to put the gun back in the hostler!

But alas, no! The majority are the “greater fools” who just DEMAND to jump into one of the most over heated markets in our time. Derivatives and other financial instruments generally mean revert fairly quickly, however property market is just a whole different ball game. And that is why my friends the housing bubble just doesn’t make any sense, and will continue to be fuelled in the long run morons.

But hey, I have been wrong since 2007, so perhaps I am indeed the greater fool!!!

#128 torontorocks on 05.17.17 at 10:36 am

good seeing you this morning, Garth, it appears that you continue to be mesmerized by this beard that I bear…or bare.

#129 Calgary Rip Off on 05.17.17 at 11:03 am

Buying a mortgage isnt an easy scene.

Vancouver is worse than Calgary, and Calgary is bad.

At 45, Im doing ok. I have a mortgage, that is somewhat paid, and money is coming in from a stressful hospital job.

The real key for anyone is stress minimization. Stress will kill you. So for each person they need to figure out what to do that lessens that stress and enables peace of mind.

A coworker in her 50’s is renting in Calgary, plans to retire to the united states with her husband in 5-10 years. My wife wants to do the same, as Calgary is a stressful but beautiful place: Cost of living is high, traffic can be stressful, cold winters, calcified yucky tap water. The reality is that selling the place in about that time will likely yield $500K+ and then you relocate to a cheaper non city setting and buy the house with cash and then work a basic job. It can be done. Its ironic that many of my coworkers in their 50s and 60s are still working with paid mortgages in Calgary. Maybe they like it here or its all they know.

So buying/selling is intricate and complicated because decision making is related to emotions. And emotions are not always so easy to deal with. With any experience, good or bad, there is stress residually.

Perhaps the person in Vancouver encountering the dilemma of living in that city needs to evaluate all variables, and having input here can help with the logical and emotional variables in decision making over housing.

#130 Looney Baloney on 05.17.17 at 11:03 am

“Houses are shelter. You are a dink. — Garth”
Wrong. Houses are shelter in a normal interest rate environment. In a low rate environment like today, houses become a speculative instrument, like every other asset class that can be bought on leverage.

And yes, we are a dual income no kids household, although I don’t think that’s what you meant :)

#122 all your variables are irrelevant. My basic premise still stands. Borrow up to your eyeballs at low rates (mortgage fraud, Bom, etc are just symptoms), wait for other fools to do the same and drive up prices, sell. This only happens in low rate environments, and will continue to exist for the foreseeable future, as long as our FM keeps talking of bailouts negative rates.

#131 JT on 05.17.17 at 11:10 am

The “MARKET” has changed. Offer date yesterday on a 1+den – no parking – Front/Spadina, 3 offers presented. These were selling for ~500k in march/april w/10 or so offers, agent listed at 400. Agent sent everyone home, clients rejected all offers. Said the offers weren’t realistic (our was 460), but no answer as to the list price being unrealistic.

Crickets in surrounding GTA – york/durham/brampton. Scarborough is returning to what scarborough used to be. Beaches aren’t seeing multiples either.

Hang tight

#132 joblo on 05.17.17 at 11:31 am

Is America Great Again yet?

#133 Ronaldo on 05.17.17 at 11:47 am

#84 Vanfam on 05.17.17 at 12:09 am

Garth,
I am one of the “priced out” families in Vancouver. We have been looking for a sfh in East Van for …3 years. Yes that’s right. We earn very good incomes grossing us over $325k year. We have a decent down payment of $325k yet we have bid on over 20 properties in the 1.2 -1.5 million range and been outbid every single time. We always bid over ask, no inspection, no subjects. I can tell you first hand that every house on the East side is going for hundreds of thousands over ask. Tear downs going for 1.4, basics going for 1.5-1.6, pretty ones 1.7-1.8, new builds 2.2-2.5. Sellers are fearless, buyers have zero leverage. It is insanity, but it goes on and on- year 4 of this. Houses that went for 900k in 2013 are now going for 1.6
There are no words for the frustration we feel.
————————————————————-
I agree with your statements having watched these markets in particular the Mt. Pleasant area over the past few years. A tear down is now going for around 1.8 to 1.9. Even if they decide to do a cheap reno (putting lipstick on a pig) (usually realtors), they will jack the price up $500,000 or more and sell it to some greater fool who doesn’t know any better. They may look good on the outside but you can bet that there is some major rot going on inside that frame and foundation. I am keeping an eye on one such place right now that sold back in October and is recently been undergoing a facelift. They dare not uncover the siding along the foundation because I can guarantee that it is rotted out.
Many people going to be very sadly sucked in. Especially the foreigners.

#134 Ronaldo on 05.17.17 at 11:59 am

#97 Vancouver

”As for the real estate articles, they used to have some good ones from Kathy Thomlinson. What happened to her lately?”
——————————————————————
Yes, where is she indeed? She was the one responsible for investigating and bringing these scams in the open.

Here she is.

https://twitter.com/KathyTGlobe?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

#135 bdwy sktrn on 05.17.17 at 12:01 pm

Vanfam “Houses that went for 900k in 2013 are now going for 1.6”
———————–
entropy mark in sask says you are a liar.

You see, he can see all the way from the middle of the praries what is REALLY happening in van, not us guys who live here and see the market up close every day.

mark says prices same/down vs 2013.

us locals see nearly 100% up on EVERY property, and provide many examples of the same property selling in 2013 and again in 2016/17 for double.

he says outliers.

yet he can not find even one single example where the change is less than 50%.

he knows all! (except entropy, that which he supposedly took in school)

#136 Simplyput7 on 05.17.17 at 12:07 pm

Has anyone figured out why Toronto and the surrounding areas, all of a sudden have so many empty homes on the market?

Every other home I click on Zoocasa/Realtor.ca are flipped empty homes, new detached empty homes in established neighbourhoods, new empty homes in newer subdivisions or empty condos.

Any thoughts?

#137 tkid on 05.17.17 at 12:09 pm

I am sick to freakin’ death of every conversation on the internet, of every news story on the tv and the radio being about Donald freakin’ Trump. It has just demolished my last nerve.

One almost – almost – wishes they’d start a freakin’ war with North Korea just so they’d finally TALK ABOUT SOMETHING ELSE.

I officially hate EVERY SINGLE AMERICAN who currently breathes, irrespective of if they are democrats or republicans.

#138 rates vs capital on 05.17.17 at 12:09 pm

#95 Paulo
#72 pete
a good Chinese friend of mine with significant experience in real estate in HK mentioned that about 80% of the residential real estate is essentially goverment controlled by either rent control or subsidy so the 18+ figure reflects the fact that only 20% is free market
——–
You are absolutely right about the majority of land be under government control – with lots of undeveloped land. A lot of land is around the light rail systems which is undeveloped.

Cramming people into 200 square feet is somewhat artificial – just like it is in Vancouver. Why anyone would want to adopt the Hong Kong model of shoving tons of people into a small area is beyond me – except of course, the profit motive of developers.

#139 James on 05.17.17 at 12:15 pm

#120 WTC7 on 05.17.17 at 9:41 am

#107 Smoking Man on 05.17.17 at 8:17 am
What MSM will tell you. Trump is Bad
What they won’t tell you.
Murdered Seth Rich was the WikiLeaks source for the DNC emails.
They are silent on the amount of blue dots exploding on the Realtor.ca

Who do you trust for the truth?
…………………………………………..
Breitbart and zerohedge are the only hope against the endless tyranny of the commies and the clinton crime family. Long may Trump run

____________________________________________
God dam WTC7 you sound just like Smoking Man. Breithbart, please…………… WTF do you get your other news from the National Enquirer? So just to keep it balanced, here is what Trumps best friend Vlady does to his acquaintances.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/23/here-are-ten-critics-of-vladimir-putin-who-died-violently-or-in-suspicious-ways/?utm_term=.048bf575b356

#140 James on 05.17.17 at 12:17 pm

Buying is easy. Selling isn’t. You’ll be asking me about that soon enough.
___________________________________
It really depends on what you are selling, where you are selling and when you are selling.

#141 bdwy sktrn on 05.17.17 at 12:19 pm

#108 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 05.17.17 at 8:45 am
Trading Notes:

I am now 100% sold out of USD longs in my portfolio. DXY (USD$) has now erased ALL OF IT’S GAINS since the Trump election. Purchased CAD due to CL (Oil) strength.

Purchased international equity funds: ATB211, MAW250 and ATB203/ATB204.

Still advising clients to sell USD and not buy into the US S&P markets but into global equities (minus USA).

————
global? i see most other markets following uncle sam into the red also. cash works great for me here.

#142 Jonathan on 05.17.17 at 12:22 pm

Just another anecdote from Vancouver (that’s getting more and more stupid everyday)

Friend decided to add one to their family of three so started looking at a bigger townhouse in Burnaby. Did their homework, asked for strata minutes from the places they liked, got their inspector friend to case the joint beforehand, finally found a place they liked with decent price (as in, not as greedy as everyone else) so they put in the max price they are comfortable with.

Both have steady jobs with decent pay and they could’ve afforded at least 20% more but they are level headed (they don’t even read this pathetic blog) and agreed they will not get sucked into bidding war no matter what. Their agent advises that seller is probably trying to start a bidding war pricing the listing so reasonably (just think: pricing it reasonably nowadays = bidding war? What has the world come to?)

Come offer day and they put in their no conditions max $ offer and waited. Next day the buyer agent came back with the standard reply from the selling agent: we really like your offer, but there are 3 other offers that are about 100k more, can you do any better? Friend of course says no, that’s not part of the plan. We feel this property is worth the price we offered, and no more. So that was that, of course they didn’t get the townhouse.

That was two weeks ago. Fast forward to this past weekend. Friend’s agent phoned them, a little incredulous, and informed them that townhouse listing was pulled and then relisted. Now asking even above what they originally tried to bully my friend into offering. This of course left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth and they vowed to not deal with that selling agent or the company ever again.

I’ll leave you with this, the selling agent works for the agency that is “not-old small/narrow river”…

#143 rates vs capital on 05.17.17 at 12:24 pm

#85 chaddywack

@ #71 rates

I’ve lived in the Vancouver area my entire life and just recently moved to Calgary. I’m not going to deny that there are foreign buyers, but my argument has been that rich millionaires are buying the $5M+ houses, not the lower valued ones.
———–

No offence, but you were given hard quantitative data that has been covered in mainstream and alternative media (which these days covers the news before mainstream media does). So your anecdotes about family members extending themselves and ‘whataboutery’ on Russian money adds little value – because they are anecdotes.

There is 30 years of quantitative data on the influence of foreign capital from China on Metro Vancouver real estate. At the most basic level, 200,000 investor immigrants came to Canada since 1986 under the defunct Investor Immigrant Program, with the majority going to Vancouver. Of those ‘investors,’ 80% came from Hong Kong and Mainland China. That means 160,000 millionaires in Vancouver buying real estate.

Now if we really believe that 400 utilizers of the new BC Home Buyers Program program can drive the condo and townhouse market now, think what 160k millionaire over 30 years can do to a market.

And as for the foreign buyers tax, sales went down and prices are now apparently 9% down year over year after the tax was implemented.

Provincial data showed that foreign buyers dried up to just 1% right after the tax and paired back to 4-5% now in contrast to the 20% plus in many Metro Vancouver communities prior to the tax. Most would say there is a direct link…

Here’s my anecdote if it adds value- on Vancouver Island there are a lot more houses being bought by Americans given the low dollar. You can get a house for 2/3rds of the listing price in US dollars.

Are we allowed to comment on the influence of foreign capital from America on Vancouver Islands market? Is that racist, or xenophobic, or bigoted? I mean after all, we should be sensitive as we burned down their white house 200 years ago and we call them the derogatory name ‘Yanks’.

Does that mean we cannot talk about the influence of foreign capital from the US on our real estate? I suspect most would have no problem talking about American money – just as people complained about it in Whistler when those buyers bought up a lot of Whistler when the dollar was 65 cents.

#144 bdwy sktrn on 05.17.17 at 12:33 pm

‘TRUMP DUMP’

lookout below.
eq’s going on sale , how low can they go?

#145 tkid on 05.17.17 at 12:42 pm

Talk to me, Garth. Talk to me and tell me why I shouldn’t sell my nicely balanced portfolio and go to cash until the nitwits south of the border get their collective @sses together?

#146 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 12:42 pm

Hey WULLY,help me out.

Do I have a case against Chaddywack?

I was hoping to publish all my posts one day and make a small amount of money for the Terry Fox Foundation.

I don’t want to make that much,just enough to beat Stojoking Man’s book sales will be suffice…

M42BC

P.S . Thanks SWL1976 for your good wishes and taking my joke in good spirits.
I’m glad things are going good for you…

#147 Steve on 05.17.17 at 12:44 pm

@ Trumpocalypse2017

“War by this time next week”….

If you are wrong you have to promise to stop posting here with the exact same post every single day…

#148 Damifino on 05.17.17 at 12:55 pm

Another reason you might want to own some actual dirt rather than a box of air…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/anarchy-in-the-sky-the-condo-dream-becomes-a-nightmare/article35010827/

#149 fonzaponz on 05.17.17 at 12:58 pm

#12 Economystical on 05.16.17 at 6:43 pm

It is not an impossible dream, it is the promise of Economystics! All we have to do, it is really so simple, is just say a thing that was priced at $10 dollars yesterday is worth $20 today, and vola! $10 dollars for a free lunch”

Also called a Ponzi scheme!

#150 fonzaponz on 05.17.17 at 12:59 pm

Garth

The pooch and that serious looking lady need to get gadgets if they want to stay plugged in or out…OTOH maybe they are smart to be thinking outside the box.

#151 Tony on 05.17.17 at 1:03 pm

Re: #118 AK on 05.17.17 at 9:35 am

Are you sure? I see it on zolo.ca and it says listed 2 days ago.

#152 People are Strange on 05.17.17 at 1:04 pm

I have been following the market in the GTA (I commute on the cattle cars for an hour, from the land of slightly more affordable real estate – for now).
All I can say is people have to wake up and realize that the biggest problem here is foreign ownership. I’m sure local speculation is a big problem, but the main culprit is from overseas, or south of the border.
There is too much evidence of this problem. Just look what happens when a new condo development hits the market. It’s a feeding frenzy. It’s not normal buyer/seller behavior!
Many people have commented (on this site as well as others) that places like beautiful Unionville ON, are varitable ghost towns. Hoe does that happen? Or today, I read about an advertisement in a very large, far East-Asian city offering to pay the 15% foreign buyers tax a new condo development. Do you really think the problem is less than 10% of the recent buying market? Regardless of the percentage; why do we care so much about protecting their interests here????? Make the tax 50-75%!!
Our Canadian dream is going down the drain for much of this, and the next generation. A home is a place to live; to raise a family. If you want to buy a rental property, you should have to pay a bigger price (even for ‘locals’). Or, buy a cottage and rent it by the week.

We need to take our heads out of our behinds! I’ve never seen so much greed in all my life, even from friends and family…and I’m a fiscal conservative that believes in a healthy capitalist world. I don’t like where we’re going with this; but I’m not hoping for a big bubble burst either.

#153 Deplorable Dude on 05.17.17 at 1:10 pm

#70 Trump…”cracks in the armour. Did they close his twitter account yet? HOW did this guy get voted in?”

Cause 60 million Americans want to save the US from Globalism.

You are watching a deep state Coup de’ta attemp, i.e treason from within.

The NYT and WaPo are just conduits for black hat leakers within the CIA and FBI who are protecting globalist interests.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/05/16/new-york-times-president-trump-asked-comey-to-end-investigation/

#154 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 1:12 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Richmond.

This is the second case I have seen this morning about a 2017 purchase that has been put back up for sale and struggling.

As you can see on the top posting it states Feb 23 as the original listing date but on the bc assessment it states early May 2017 as the latest sale and so my guess of ones being back on the market being expedited appears to hold some weight as there are still listings waiting to be updated from last year.

Anyway I checked out Zolo, and there she was re-listed as of yesterday at the price of 1.298,which is a great to get for an 80s build in Richmond.

Except when you paid 1.345…

M42BC

4671 HERMITAGE DR Richmond

Feb 23:$1,398,000
May 16: $1,298,000
Change: – 100000.00 -7%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=4671%20Hermitage%20Drive,%20Richmond&ptype_house=1&max_price=1300000&min_price=800000&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1WFM3Rg==

#155 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 05.17.17 at 1:15 pm

122 Mortgage Fraud

Great work uncovering the housing bubble scam. Many speculators are in an all out panic. Where are the rich foreigns? HAM is really local Asians gambling on houses. These are the same HAM that used to frequent Casino Niagara fallsview who used to bet large with credit. Now they bet large on housing. Now many of them are trying to cash out before their loans get called in. Its all a house of fraud and everyone knows it.

#156 Ronaldo on 05.17.17 at 1:42 pm

Seems the locals are buying Vancouver condos from foreigners who get first dibs on presales then flip the paper several times avoiding the 15% tax. Nice scam if you can get away with it. Who are the real fools?

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/vancouvers-presale-condo-market-reaches-fever-pitch/article34771425/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&click=sf_globe&service=mobile

#157 Waiverless on 05.17.17 at 1:45 pm

#144 tkid on 05.17.17 at 12:42 pm
Talk to me, Garth. Talk to me and tell me why I shouldn’t sell my nicely balanced portfolio and go to cash until the nitwits south of the border get their collective @sses together?

____________________________________________

If you’re balanced don’t worry be happy. It’ll go up…it’ll go down…. rinse & repeat…. treat this as a minor buying opportunity if anything. And if it takes a bigger tumble.. don’t worry be happy… the great financial crisis in modern history recovered quick quick… because… It’ll go up…it’ll go down…. rinse & repeat…. cash doesn’t gain value and only loses to inflation while you wait and worry about when the right time to jump back in is… there is no right time…

#158 Vit on 05.17.17 at 1:52 pm

1 bitcoin= 2499.13 Canadian Dollar
How do you justify price probably the same way why real estate go up . Pure greed and fear there is no economical models that can explain this . Same way is real estate , dont try to fit it in to some book rules and theories. Pure greed and fear. Buyers fear of missing out and owners greed of missing potential profits . human nature never changes .

#159 Ronaldo on 05.17.17 at 1:55 pm

#124 Bdwy Sktn

You see, he can see all the way from the middle of the praries what is REALLY happening in van, not us guys who live here and see the market up close every day.

mark says prices same/down vs 2013.
————————————————————–
The one thing that is certain is that the land under the house from 2008 has risen from around $700,000 to around $2.4 million on houses that have had nothing done to them. An increase in the lot values of around 240%. This as a result of speckers and realtor manipulation and questionable assessments. Land values that rise this quickly on low volumes gives rise to some serious questions.

#160 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 2:15 pm

Stop my email from coming up and I will wash your car for free.

Maybe even take Bandit for a walk…

#161 bdwy sktrn on 05.17.17 at 2:19 pm

+1
——————-

#152 Deplorable Dude on 05.17.17 at 1:10 pm
#70 Trump…”cracks in the armour. Did they close his twitter account yet? HOW did this guy get voted in?”

Cause 60 million Americans want to save the US from Globalism.

You are watching a deep state Coup de’ta attemp, i.e treason from within.

The NYT and WaPo are just conduits for black hat leakers within the CIA and FBI who are protecting globalist interests.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/05/16/new-york-times-president-trump-asked-comey-to-end-investigation/

#162 Ronaldo on 05.17.17 at 2:22 pm

From Kathy Tomlinson’s twitter account. Interesting read. Kathy is still alive and well. Keep the pressure on Kathy. We are nearing the end of this mania.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/how-canada-completely-lost-its-mind-over-real-estate/

#163 TCContrarian on 05.17.17 at 2:30 pm

“Buying is easy. Selling isn’t.” -GT

——————————————

You got that right!

When you’re buying (ie. “open a position” in trader’s talk), you bring no psychological ‘baggage’. When selling, there’s always some form of psychological ‘baggage’:

1. If ahead (ie. in profit), greed sets in and makes it difficult to realize the gains as recency bias ‘tells’ you that if you stay longer your gains will continue increasing.

2. When behind in a trade, selling at a loss will confirm that they aren’t as smart as they’d thought – so people tend to stay in the trade with the hope that, magically, they’ll at least break even. Of course, more often than not, it goes lower and the losses become greater.

As a ‘contrarian’, it’s imperative to acknowledge this behaviour in order to take advantage of it.

So far, so good…

As a ‘rule’, what one has paid for an asset shouldn’t be a factor in the decision-making process of whether it should be sold. In other words, look forward not backward!

TCC

#164 AK on 05.17.17 at 2:45 pm

#150 Tony on 05.17.17 at 1:03 pm
Re: #118 AK on 05.17.17 at 9:35 am
“Are you sure? I see it on zolo.ca and it says listed 2 days ago.”
——————————————————————–
I live a couple of blocks away.

It was listed on May 04, 2017 for $1,189,000.00

TREB will not tell you that.

#165 AGuyInVancouver on 05.17.17 at 2:47 pm

#151 People are Strange And it is worth noting that Doug Porter of BMO noted that even 5% is enough to skew the market. It all trickled down.

#166 AK on 05.17.17 at 2:53 pm

#150 Tony on 05.17.17 at 1:03 pm
Re: #118 AK on 05.17.17 at 9:35 am
“Are you sure? I see it on zolo.ca and it says listed 2 days ago.”
——————————————————————–

May 04, 2017 Listing

#167 Chaddywack on 05.17.17 at 2:53 pm

@142 rates

We just have to be careful as a society that we are not attacking a certain group because of their race.

The reality is that we are not all equal in Canada. Sometimes to be fair to groups that are disadvantaged special measures need to be put in place. For example, in the federal government sometimes a white male will not get the job because a competing member of a historically disadvantaged group qualifies (e.g. women, minorities, aboriginals or disabled persons). On the outset this is not seen as “fair” but it is really fair to give them preference even though it may not be “equal” by the strict definition because you are fighting against discrimination. It’s a special measure that is allowed by the Charter of Rights section 15(2). In other words, it is NOT discrimination to have special program that allow for correcting disadvantaged persons.

It’s a fact that Chinese in Vancouver, along with other groups are historically disadvantaged. If you do some readings Vancouver actually has a VERY racist history. Race riots, the head tax, etc. It wasn’t just the Chinese either it was the aboriginals, Japanese, East Indians and other minority groups as well.

Americans aren’t really a historically disadvantaged group and we have to be mindful of that when we criticize certain groups. I’m not suggesting that we cannot critique foreign capital from China, but we have to be a little more careful commenting on Chinese investment when it trends towards bigoted or outright racist comments.

Remember that Justin Trudeau, our leader, has said that diversity is a strength and these are powerful words that ALL Canadians need to live by! We need to be very careful that certain groups are not targeted in a tyranny of the majority.

#168 Rexx Rock on 05.17.17 at 2:58 pm

My cousin lives in the USA.She’s almost paid her home mortgage off.I asked her if she will ever move back to Canada and she just laughed.She said with the same income as she has now she would barely get by renting a room in Vancouver or Toronto and no savings for retirement.Both YVR and GtA are world class cities and come with a cost of paridise.Canadians are strong and resilent people and will work ft and pt to achieve the dream of owning a house.End of story.

#169 Doug t on 05.17.17 at 2:59 pm

spidey senses tingling – a paradigm shift is coming – the world will never be the same – people around the world sense it as well but can’t understand what is coming – are you ready?

RATM

#170 jess on 05.17.17 at 3:12 pm

The series is in english
part 2 connections

ZEMBLA – The dubious friends of Donald trump: King of Diamonds

mapping the empire and the connections

The film also examines the business circles Kushner travels in, showing overlapping ties between conservative Jewish groups and clerics and politically powerful Russians and Israelis, including Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMo9uZjfZuvVRxKDgaTBOyQ

#171 Smartalox on 05.17.17 at 3:17 pm

@Foreign Capital? #31

Actually, we have one kid on our $1350 rental. It’s tight, but we live in a good neighbourhood, with a big park across the street.

We tried for more kids, but after maxing out the miracles of modern medicine (at great cost, which we were able to cover without going into debt, thanks to our choices re: housing), we learned that it was not to be.

But renting was always part of our ‘pay as you go’ plan: if we’d needed more bedrooms, we could have always moved to a bigger rental. It makes WAY more sense than going ‘all in’ to buy a place, before starting a family.

A lot of friends who bought in Vancouver before starting families, over-extended themselves just to get into the market, and when they started having more kids than bedrooms, found themselves priced well out of their neighbourhoods, and even beyond the distant suburbs.

In the complex where we rent, there are several families who are struggling to stay in the places that they bought, cramming two (or more) kids into small, over-priced spaces, and trying to balance higher-than-expected child care costs, with ballooning mortgage and special-assessment payments that come with ownership.

As much as I would give anything to have another child, and wouldn’t want to leave our neighbourhood, I sure as hell wouldn’t want to have the stress that I see some of these families dealing with, having to balance the costs of the properties that they bought.

#172 I'm stupid on 05.17.17 at 3:20 pm

A realtor I know just purchased an investment property. That’s the 4th one in 5 years. She leveraged her home to get the down payments for her “investment” properties. She’s convinced that she’s the smartest person in the room. I forgot to mention that she hasn’t had a commission in 3 months. Good luck with that, I’m sure it will all work out for her!

#173 jess on 05.17.17 at 3:21 pm

if trump is 50 /50 partnership he is responsible under american law
the plot thickens

NY Attorney General Green Lights $250 Million Tax Fraud Prosecution of Trump Projects

14 Jul, 2016, 12:49 ET

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ny-attorney-general-green-lights-250-million-tax-fraud-prosecution-of-trump-projects-300298935.html

https://bayrocktaxfraudlawsuit.com/

#174 Wrk.dover on 05.17.17 at 3:25 pm

a house is a shelter.

an investment is a bet on something more for nothing.

Tonight I sleep at home in my house with all my stuff like I always will.

My investments, tonight…not so sure.

But I do have an unlevered shelter, where property tax is a grand a year. So, WTF. I keep it through thick and thin.

House not for sale, or leverage. Get it?

#175 your realtor on 05.17.17 at 3:47 pm

54 Smoking Man on 05.16.17 at 9:25 pm

#39 Raj on 05.16.17 at 8:39 pm
According to my observations, the new listings are hitting with the rate of 800/day in the GTA.
…..

It’s accelerating. But who knows what’s going to happen. Got a taste of trying to find a good rental.
It’s ugly out there.

I think I made a mistake selling Shlong Branch. Altho houses are selling slower and less of them. Prices are holding.

You have a group of buyers that think it will go up for ever. Now we have a group of sellers thinking a crash is coming. Sell Prices will be all over the place keeping the average stable.

Conclusion. Stable prices. No price gains and no crash.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
We can save you money!
Close to Casinos too!
Only $3500.

http://www.homes.com/property/2740-service-rd-niagara-falls-ny-14304/id-333475422/

#176 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 3:49 pm

A little present for Vanfam.

Also have another one near me and Fraser,where the elderly lady is waiting to cash in and move back east to be with her family ,asking 1.3

1.2 should get the job done if you tell them you know Flop…

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2166578/3665-slocan-street-vancouver-bc

#177 [email protected] on 05.17.17 at 4:02 pm

@166 Chaddywack

It’s interesting to finally see someone say that the Chinese (east asian) is a disadvantaged group in Vancouver… yet there are no program to help the Chinese whereas the government throws money at every other race.

Still, compared to other countries (even Europeans) Canada has a better handle on racial issues than every other country in the world, but it is still there. We just need to stop lying to ourself that we are so equal that it is not there. In my opinion, only Norway has the possible right to claim true equality.

#178 bdwy sktrn on 05.17.17 at 4:07 pm

if the stock market has a ‘total meltdown’ over the summer van RE may stall again.

Sure, but there is zero reason for a stock melt. — Garth

#179 McLovin on 05.17.17 at 4:21 pm

Funniest and most drippingly sarcastic column ever!

Love it.

#180 Rocky Mountain on 05.17.17 at 4:36 pm

First time posting here..

I must say thank you Garth. I have been reading your blog last couple of months and it really makes me feel better that I am not the only one who doesn’t want to jump into this housing mess anymore.

All my friends have bought houses in last couple of years and peer pressure does make me feel if I made the right decision or not.

We were looking into buying in places like Squamish where one could still find houses for less than 500K back in summer of 2015. Now those houses are over a million. what’s wrong with people I don’t understand! Even for 500K those houses were over valued.

Even in Edmonton where we are now the houses cost upwards of 500K for decent build. We are at the bottom of recession. Go figure.

We plan to move back to BC at some point in near future.. Edmonton is way too cold for us. I hope prices cool down by then.

#181 oncebitten on 05.17.17 at 4:36 pm

Lot’s of metaphors for our housing bubble in this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Um7pMggPnug

#182 lol on 05.17.17 at 4:50 pm

sell the real estate then put it in the market…BOOM….lol

Stocks declined 1.8% today and a balanced portfolio was down half of that. Shallow much? — Garth

#183 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 05.17.17 at 5:19 pm

#140 bdwy sktrn on 05.17.17 at 12:19 pm
————
global? i see most other markets following uncle sam into the red also. cash works great for me here.
—-

Seems odd right? It is simply much lower P/E ratios outside of USA/Canada and much more favorable economic news/GDP/recovery notes.

The US market went down today on a Trump memo. It had little to do with earnings/growth. But still, US markets are a little overbought.

#184 For those about to flop... on 05.17.17 at 5:41 pm

#182 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 05.17.17 at 5:19 pm
#140 bdwy sktrn on 05.17.17 at 12:19 pm
————
global? i see most other markets following uncle sam into the red also. cash works great for me here.
—-

Seems odd right? It is simply much lower P/E ratios outside of USA/Canada and much more favorable economic news/GDP/recovery notes.

The US market went down today on a Trump memo. It had little to do with earnings/growth. But still, US markets are a little overbought.

///////////////////////

I’m an investment hack ,but this is what I decided to do with my tfsa this year.

Took some of my CAD and U.S equity gains from last year and bought some EM ,Europe and Asia- Pacific and added another 5k in as well…

M42BC

#185 Tony on 05.17.17 at 5:58 pm

Re: #163 AK on 05.17.17 at 2:45 pm

Ok.

#186 Freedom First on 05.17.17 at 6:10 pm

#84 Vanfam

You are both ingrates and a sad example of our extremely sick society today.

#187 Alice on 05.17.17 at 6:28 pm

Time to review a lesson on how high leveraged real estate buys are *not* a good hedge against inflation.

https://dailyreckoning.com/is-real-estate-a-good-hedge-against-hyperinflation/

#188 TSX on 05.17.17 at 6:30 pm

Hate to say I told ya so – feel like that rino kasich . And broke through key resistance late .

Still short

:)

#189 Trump impeachment on 05.17.17 at 6:32 pm

Would wipe the gains since nov .

How quickly it evaporates .VIX was spectacular today

#190 jess on 05.17.17 at 7:08 pm

The bank, Vnesheconombank, or VEB, bought $850 million of stock in a Ukrainian steelmaker from the billionaire Russian-Canadian developer Alexander Shnaider, who was constructing the hotel at the time, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

Shnaider initially purchased the stock via his company, Midland Resources Holding, for about $70 million after the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to The Journal.

The money from the sale of that stock to VEB — which The Journal said went through while Russian President Vladimir Putin was chairman of VEB’s supervisory board — was used to help finance the construction of the Toronto hotel “at a key moment for the project.”

Report—Russian bank whose CEO met secretly with Kushner helped finance Trump’s Toronto hotel http://read.bi/2qsa2OS
A Russian state-owned bank under US sanctions, whose CEO met with President Donald Trump’s son-in-law in December, helped financed the construction of the president’s 65-story Trump International Hotel and Tower in Toronto, according to a new report. Russian President Vladimir Putin was chairman of VEB’s supervisory board at the time of Shnaider’s deal,

Dec, 2016: At the request of Kislyak, Jared Kushner met with Sergey N. Gorkov (CEO of Vnesheconombank, a state financial firm long entrusted with carrying out Russian president Vladimir Putin’s “special projects ) which the United States placed on its sanctions list after Putin annexed Crimea and began meddling in Ukraine.

#191 NewWorldParty.org on 05.17.17 at 7:57 pm

Steve French,

You’re right. Trump is a terrible politician. But if his policies get stopped by the lying media and Dems, then the Americans will suffer.

Why do you think the stock market tanked today? Because Trump is putting through his policies or that the lying media and Dems were going to stop him and his policies?

What did the MSM lie about on this issue? — Garth

#192 Smoking Man on 05.17.17 at 11:24 pm

Real life is not about money or things that talk for people who have no creative ability.

It’s about a voice that’s inside your head. That you dont share.

I’m well past that point of evolution.

#193 westcdn on 05.18.17 at 4:00 am

When my parents died they were lucky to have two nickels to rub together. If there was more, their second partners scooped it. I actually wrote letters to my mother in the pre-internet days. She kept them. It was reveling how naïve I was at the time. Nonetheless she loved me.

Her family send me letters she wrote to them. This was one courageous woman. She admitted what she did wrong such as getting the groceries and having to depend on neighbours to keep us alive – we were in a logging camp. I have stories to tell about her but they would bore you. I killed things she was fretful.

#194 Mortgage Fraud on 05.18.17 at 9:27 am

This is just starting: Vancouver foreclosures have tripled.

https://twitter.com/MortgageMark/status/864854764428722176

Canada’s Middle Class Is on the Brink of Ruin:

https://thewalrus.ca/canadas-middle-class-is-on-the-brink-of-ruin/#.WRz4Jw8A6HY.twitter

Silence deafening in Pickering/Ajax RE market:

https://twitter.com/REWoman/status/863145546684530689

#195 Jay on 05.18.17 at 11:35 am

Hot Asian money.

http://www.bnn.ca/hong-kong-ad-offers-to-cover-foreign-buyers-tax-for-toronto-condo-investors-1.753423

#196 jess on 05.18.17 at 12:35 pm

#194 Jay on 05.18.17 at 11:35 am
google 88 Queensway Group
Sam Pa/Madam Lo Fong Hung

#197 DerrdyDerr on 05.18.17 at 2:53 pm

At the end of the day, these do-goody renters that think they can hop to and fro from place to place will be very unfortunate when the landlords (property owners) cash out during a correction and/or are forced to move back into their property (kicking out the renters).

The one thing everyone forgets during a correction, is panic. Owners will sell. And, at this point, they will still make money. The market needs to correct 50% before anyone who bought prior to 2010 will actually begin to lose money on their investment.

The math that is being used in these comments isn’t correct. That 1.5mm “mansion” you’re renting for 3500 a month isn’t costing the owner at all. The owner doesn’t have it mortgaged to full value, if they do, it’s a HELOC and it’s interest-only and they owner is writing it off. Renters should be so silly to think they are getting ahead in this game.

At the end of the day, it comes down to financial circumstances. If a renter is truly saving the difference (see math on 1.5mm “mansion”) then the renter is surely getting ahead in a wealth point of view, but I HIGHLY doubt the renter is putting the difference between the $3500 rent and perceived $6250 mortgage payment into savings or investments every month.

You rent because you have no savings, or because your circumstances make it a better option for you. You buy, because you plan to make roots in a community and want to invest your money in a vehicle that makes you happy or more financially well off (if you rent it out).

Christy’s mortgage helper isn’t being used as much as being commented on in this forum. The fact of the matter is, last year we had extreme sales in high value properties driving average prices up. The rest of the market is catching up to the average price as the Realtors use that average as a benchmark, tricking buyers into believing that is the value of the market for an average home.

The Globe and Mail has an excellent infographic with latest home price data which shows you what prices are like in all lower-mainland neighbourhoods. Check it out.

#198 DerrdyDerr on 05.18.17 at 3:03 pm

What also is lost in this entire picture, is the idea of cashing out. If I own a property that I purchased years ago for a fraction of the current market value, why would I not sell, take the “winnings” and then look Eastward for a property I truly love and buy it outright, sure it’s at a cost above market, but what do I care…

#199 Chris on 05.19.17 at 12:53 pm

There there JAEK. We’re all in this together :/

#200 Matt on 05.19.17 at 3:52 pm

Don’t worry, JAEK! It can only get better. Give it time. Good things come to those who wait!