Classic behaviour

 

In the last 24 hours the number of listings in the GTA-Golden Horeshoe increased by more than 3,200. That was 200% the number which appeared in the one-day period which went before. It is now a distant memory when buyers became suddenly and strongly aroused as a brand new blue dot appeared on their screens, causing them to speed-dial their agents.

It will take months for prices to moderate since sellers are both scared and greedy. But the level of sales has plunged. Everywhere. In upscale Oakville a real estate lawyer who barely had time to go home six months ago spent yesterday afternoon at a staff party. “Offers have crashed,” he said. “It’s like a giant light just got turned off.”

What an event this is. In the past year Oakville’s median house prices soared 33%, from $902,000 to $1.12 million. Strip out the towns and condos, and detacheds were fetching more money than in the Kingdom of 416. The suddenly-idle lawyer says, to his mind, the zenith point came a month ago when some stunned person paid $1.92 million for a boring, two-storey 1980s house needing work on a non-descript street in the second-best part of town. “That was $500,000 over asking,” he says, ”and I think people just stood back, shook their heads and waited for the thing to end.”

And it did, during that one big week when Home Capital blew up and the Ontario government charged ahead with its anti-bubble, 16-point program. Since then buyers have retreated, bidding wars ended, sellers have been shocked and listings bloated.

Remember Derek who scored $2.2 million for his house just before the lights went out, only to see the buyer get cold feet and bolt? He’s relisted now, waiting for an offer, waiting to sue. This week his lawyer warned the deadbeat purchasers: “As you have probably noticed from news sources, the new steps taken by the provincial government to cool the housing market, coupled with the troubles encountered by Home Capital, have served to significantly slow the real estate market. My clients are not obligated to obtain the highest and best price, but merely to obtain a reasonable price.” Once a buyer shows up and an offer is accepted, Derek will start litigation to recover damages – the difference between the original contract prices and the new one, which is 100% certain to be lower. Maybe way lower.

What we’re witnessing is classic human behaviour. When the market sizzled and prices romped higher, listings shrunk. Homeowners wanted to hang on and maximize their gains, or felt they couldn’t afford to move. Buyers were in a frenzy to purchase at any cost, fearing values would escalate forever. But now, all’s changed. Owners realize the windfall they relished might quickly slip away, so they’re rushing to market. Buyers think houses will only get cheaper, so acting would be rash. A risk. Greed’s morphed into fear. The most emotional of assets has diddled with our heads once again.

What comes next?

After months – years, actually – of demand outstripping supply, the tables are turning. When over 3,000 new properties come to market in a single day, and just a few hundred sell, we’re on our way to a buyer’s market. Eventually prices will moderate. The pace and extent of that is in the hands of the purchasers. If they rush in after a 5% decline, the correction will be modest. If they hold out for 20%, sellers will have no choice.

In the meantime, higher US interest rates, job losses in Canada, a trade war with Trump or tighter credit among mortgage lenders could all accelerate a real estate sell-off. Lord knows, we’re ripe for one. Debt is extreme, leverage is heroic, personal finances are sketchy and most people have turned into house-horny delusionals. It won’t take much.

One thing you should not count on is trouble at the banks. This week’s downgrade of our six biggies by rating agency Moody’s is a non-event. Yes, the banks have a huge exposure to real estate and, yup, Canadians are massively over-borrowed. Moody’s is correct in saying, “Continued growth in Canadian consumer debt and elevated housing prices leaves consumers, and Canadian banks, more vulnerable to downside risks facing the Canadian economy than in the past.”

But our banks are embarrassingly profitable, well-capitalized and have all high-ratio mortgages backed by CMHC, which is you, the taxpayer. No bank will stagger under loan losses or suffer a run on deposits. All of them have oodles of capital and seas of liquidity. But a housing correction, should it be serious and sustained, will have an impact on banks’ profitability and likely affect common stock values. Hence the Moody’s action.

Trust me, we have bigger things to fret about.

We’ll discuss that, and dogs, over ice cream Saturday afternoon.

202 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 05.11.17 at 6:13 pm

Here’s the last offering from the guys over at howmuch

It looks like my best option is New Zealand.

My biggest fear is that I migrate to another country and then Cabbage Patch Clark loses her seat again and decides she wants to live somewhere else and runs for office in my new riding.

Maybe I will move to Fiji,not sure about taxation there ,but Christy Clark doesn’t seem like a beach person to me ,although I once heard a rumour that she deliberately lost her Point Grey seat and went to Kelowna because they have better ones up there…

M42BC

“How Much Does the Tax Man Take From Your Paycheck? It Depends Where You Live.

High taxes may not be such a bad thing. As shown by the latest figures on wage taxation released by the OECD, countries with high taxes also tend to have high net incomes.

The OECD – in full, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development – is an association of 35 high-income countries committed to democracy and market economy. Since 2000, it has published annual reports on taxes paid for wages in all of its member states. The latest such report, published this May, looks back on the state of wage taxation in 2016.”

https://howmuch.net

#2 Another Deckchair on 05.11.17 at 6:17 pm

“We’ll discuss that, and dogs, over ice cream Saturday afternoon.”

Arrrgh. Booked with a family obligation I had better not try to get out of.

Someone take notes, please. :-(

#3 Sebee on 05.11.17 at 6:18 pm

Does anyone know total value of residential properties in Canada and how much of it sold in 2016 in % or $?

#4 Wrk.dover on 05.11.17 at 6:20 pm

two dudes talking in the third world: “Man I wanna move to Canada”. “why” ” I hear that if I push a broom for a year, someone will loan me enough to buy a house and a car!” ” that is not even believable enough to be true,Fool”.

#5 Doug t on 05.11.17 at 6:27 pm

Fret about the next ten years (or more) in Canada
Fret about global tensions at fever pitch
Fret about the state of the U.S
Fret about climate change and the loss of species
Fret about debt
Fret about the increase of world poverty
Fret about political correctness
Fret about loss of rights and freedom

RATM

#6 old gringo on 05.11.17 at 6:28 pm

Well finally its begun.
I was getting tired of all the delusional’s on this pathetic tread, saying housing will NEVER EVER drop.
They must have saved some of “Jimmy Jones Kool aid” to buy that dream.
This is going to really hurt anyone that is in over their head.
Think about getting out now and probably you are still ahead if you bought a couple of years ago.
Just a thought!

#7 Dan.t on 05.11.17 at 6:34 pm

Nothing will change. Canadians view Real Estate as religion. Any drop, will be viewed as a buying opportunity.

And the insanity will go on.

It seems that a huge majority of Canadians are financial morons and since owning (according to the lord of marble counter tops) is a god given right and renting is devilry,

they will keep on lusting after shelter and paying what ever CIBC (you’re richer than you think) tells them they can, but actually can’t afford.

doesn’t matter anyhow… affordable rents and housing that people can actually afford is totally overrated.

Only in Canada is debt actually considered money.

#8 Larry B on 05.11.17 at 6:36 pm

Fools, all of them.

#9 FBI troll on 05.11.17 at 6:36 pm

Interesting Job open to the public, why do you think this was posted ???

1. Manager (RE-06), Risk Measurement and Analytics Assessment Services
Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada
Toronto (Ontario)
English essential
$93,800 to $121,500
Closing date: 2017-05-22
https://emploisfp-psjobs.cfp-psc.gc.ca/psrs-srfp/applicant/page1800?poster=1038566&toggleLanguage=en

#10 Jay on 05.11.17 at 6:41 pm

The most annoying thing about seeing what’s coming is the folks who forget history who think every day prices go up is proof that prices can never go down.

Wish the inevitable would just occur already. Let the rebuilding begin.

(I guess, be careful what you wish for. The last inevitable thing blew up the world economy)

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.11.17 at 6:47 pm

“Trust me, we have bigger things to fret about…”

Smoking Man’s liver?

#12 Lars on 05.11.17 at 6:52 pm

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/05/11/electricity-prices-to-soar-after-four-years-says-secret-liberal-cabinet-document.html

Electricity prices to soar after four years, says secret Liberal cabinet document

#13 Trumpocalypse2017 on 05.11.17 at 6:52 pm

Garth, I have an urgent suggestion for you:

The chaos now unfolding in Washington suggests strongly Trump will seek a major military distraction very soon.

The metrics I employ now indicate a 63% probability of nuclear events by Saturday.

****Please reschedule the Belfountain meetup.

How about tomorrow, Friday, at 4:20 instead?

This will allow us all to evacuate the GTA and survive Saturday.

#14 Remain Calm and mow the lawn on 05.11.17 at 6:55 pm

In the springtime, there should be a lot of listings, that is normal; very few ‘for sale’ signs is abnormal. We are returning to normalcy.

#15 Randy on 05.11.17 at 6:56 pm

What’s the quality of the hot dogs ? I’m allergic to lips and assholes

#16 Mr Schadenfreude on 05.11.17 at 6:56 pm

Garth,

You say we have no reason to fear for the Canadian banks. You reasons seem sound for this but what about if this:

1.) There is an actual decline in property prices.
2.) Banks actually need to start defaulting.
3.) Losses mount up across all banks.
4.) CMHC refuses payment due to political pressure about bank bailouts.

In a real property decline, there are fallouts from financial institutions (See Europe/US).

Seems Probable to me as an outcome to a property bubble collapsing (If it happens).

#17 Bobby on 05.11.17 at 6:57 pm

I recall the last real estate meltdown in the 90’s in Ontario. Fortunately I sold before the carnage. It was the smaller centres that first tumbled as local incomes couldn’t afford the asking prices. Why live so far out when it costs less nearer to Toronto. This won’t end well. The real question is, who will everyone blame for the carnage?

#18 april on 05.11.17 at 7:00 pm

# Why are we not seeing the same increase in listing in the Vancouver/Lowermainland area if the “party is over”?

#19 daveyboy on 05.11.17 at 7:03 pm

Wonder what the almighty Al Sinclair will say tonight?

#20 Smoking Man on 05.11.17 at 7:09 pm

Talk about things to fret about.

I’m in an all out pinic, blog dogapalusa is two sleeps away and I have no idea where my damn sun glasses are. Already lost three pairs at Seneca wobbling to my room. I should have checked under the mirror I ripped of the wall on my last visit.

The though of random strangers who’s intentions are un known seeing my soul through my naked eyes is troubling.

It won’t stop me. Anyone remember close incounters of the 3rd kind.

#21 Gerry on 05.11.17 at 7:10 pm

So when–if ever is the Vancouver market going to drop?

#22 ColinColins on 05.11.17 at 7:23 pm

Good luck Toronto – enjoy the dip. Reminds me a bit of Vancouver eight months ago. Now for any character house or decent condo on the east side, unless you’re bidding $200K over assessment the agent won’t even call you back. Houses on the west side still sitting very stale though…

#23 dakkie on 05.11.17 at 7:24 pm

Canada’s housing bubble looks ready to pop
http://investmentwatchblog.com/canadas-housing-bubble-looks-ready-to-pop/

#24 TheSpangler on 05.11.17 at 7:26 pm

Granny had to leave her house in December as she was no longer able to maintain it. My parents wanted to wait until April to sell, I convinced them to sell as soon as possible. Sold in February instantly 20% over asking, no other listings in the area, today I counted 14.

Hat tip to you Garth, she is well taken care of now thanks to what I learned here.

#25 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 05.11.17 at 7:29 pm

We’ll discuss that, and dogs, over ice cream Saturday afternoon.

wish i was going to be able to be there garth
smokey have one for me…..
one day soon ill make it out east for a visit.
have fun y’all

#26 Koshy Alex on 05.11.17 at 7:32 pm

Beware of the emerging markets growth story, pumping of credit finally ends up like this

The biggest ever fire sale of Indian corporate assets has begun, to tide over bad loans crisis

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/the-biggestever-fire-sale-of-indian-corporate-assets-has-begun-to-tide-over-bad-loans-crisis/article8573163.ece

#27 Fish on 05.11.17 at 7:37 pm

There is tomorrow, let’s see how many bank employees get there walking papers

#28 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 05.11.17 at 7:39 pm

MEANWHILE BACK ON THE CRAZY WEST COAST

As BC wends its way to some electoral outcome or other, following this week’s general election, a thought arises:

It would be nice if some of that real estate selling/buying dross in southern Ontario, finds its way west…way, way west.

All the way to our version of the Big Smoke, YVR, and Little Smoke, YYJ (Victoria).

Prices, property, rent and for absolutely everything else here in the provincial capital are ripping upwards at an unfair, scarey rate.

SO, WHAT ABOUT THIS PRICE-RISING SCENARIO?

The day comes when Vancouver Island, the largest island in the eastern Pacific Ocean (it’s the same size as Taiwan), will become the largest gated community in the eastern Pacific, filled with rich people escaping from the mainland preferring to be surrounded by protective water instead of fences or walls.

In such a case thousands of wage and debt serfs, the majority here, will be cobbling together small rafts and paddling off to the mainland because the cost of taking the ferry is also out of this flaming world.

That scenario, of course, is some distance off, maybe.

BACK TO POST-ELECTION GARGLE

Meanwhile self-same serfs, calling in to open-line radio, are bubbling over with happiness at the prospect of an NDP/Green minority government emerging from this new political possibility and maybe a preferential ballot system.

They think they’ll get better government in this way. Really!?

A minority government in BC would have a very short, cruel shelf life as far as I can figure.

It would be soon followed by another general election where one of the two main parties would be wiped out.

Period.

This is a province where majority governments rule pretty much.

The last minority government was elected in 1952 and died in 1953.

The right-wingers won because a preferential ballot was used.

But Premier Bennett, the new leader of his fledgling minority Social Credit Party sabotaged his own government by losing an education funding vote in the house. During the ensuing campaign Bennett trotted out the socialist scare argument and in mid-1953 he won a majority government.

Careful for what outcomes may come hither in the days and weeks ahead with the recounts.

I’m not predicting.

But I do know that the business community, the creator of most BC jobs is not happy at all. And that doesn’t help to slow down price gains.

Now that’s a problem.

Never a dull moment in this place.

#29 Robert White on 05.11.17 at 7:40 pm

CANADA’s chartered banks have oodles of digital capital but if there was a run on the banks for currency they would crash in a New York shitty minute, man.

#30 Pete from St. Cesaire on 05.11.17 at 7:40 pm

Hey Derek, I’m glad you’re not letting it slide; stick it to ’em. He was the greatest fool and he should be taught a lesson. You would be doing him a disservice to not let him be punished for his actions. He was operating on a blinding level of greed.

#31 bellend on 05.11.17 at 7:41 pm

Derek is never getting his money eh?

#32 Boombust on 05.11.17 at 7:46 pm

“If they rush in after a 5% decline, the correction will be modest”?

Well then, that would make for a VERY shallow correction on the heels of probably the biggest RE run up of all time, wouldn’t it?

I VERY MUCH doubt that will be the case. After all, “The bigger they are, the harder they fall”.

#33 Rick in Victoria on 05.11.17 at 7:46 pm

I agree Garth, Canadian banks are strong and don’t have the same risks the US banks did in 2007-08. But, look what happened to their prices, using RY.To as an example. Lost about 1/2 from 2007 peak. If the next correction goes back to the 150 MA, price should drop to approx. 50 bucks. Yep, a 50% decline like in 2009. Seems about right…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=M&yr=17&mn=6&dy=0&id=p09406847653

#34 Millennial-falcon on 05.11.17 at 7:46 pm

Marching in Vancouvers footsteps , torontos market will pause then continue higher just as Vancouver has 604 is Still hot and you can’t even get an offer in on a condo they are selling same day, The buying frenzy continues

#35 Leo Kolivakis on 05.11.17 at 7:49 pm

“But our banks are embarrassingly profitable, well-capitalized and have all high-ratio mortgages backed by CMHC, which is you, the taxpayer. No bank will stagger under loan losses or suffer a run on deposits. All of them have oodles of capital and seas of liquidity. But a housing correction, should it be serious and sustained, will have an impact on banks’ profitability and likely affect common stock values. Hence the Moody’s action.”

True but I would be buying the dip on Canadian banks, especially CIBC. Charts look awful and I don’t see rates heading up any time soon, which will hurt them even more. In general, I don’t like financials over the next year, whether here or the US.

#36 Hot Property on 05.11.17 at 7:49 pm

I’m watching Hot Property on CP24 and Al Sinclair is blaming everyone for putting their houses up for sale at the same time. Yet, he is said it’s ridiculous to think this market is in any type of bubble. So why aren’t they selling, Al?

#37 M on 05.11.17 at 7:51 pm

Banks are the first victims of drying liquidity.
Watch CM, CM.TO,BMO…the whole crap of them.
My shorts on them are doing fantastic since mid march.
By my observations, TO RE tanked early March. All we see is dead man walking.
Watch carefully cdn banks trading on NYSE, because it’s THERE where the games are made.
Housing sector of the economy does include the big banks because of the exposure percentage of their loans. That makes it more than 50% of gdp.
Canadian story is very exciting indeed.
Explosive returns for the next year or so are to be expected as panic sets in.

#38 Leo Kolivakis on 05.11.17 at 7:52 pm

Sorry, in my last comment, meant to write I wouldn’t be buying the dip on Canadian banks, especially the CIBC….

#39 zee on 05.11.17 at 7:55 pm

Give it a few months and it will move up. Just like it is in Vancouver.

#40 Lulu on 05.11.17 at 8:17 pm

All i can say is S.T.U.N.N.I.N.G!!!! The listing surge is just historic, it’s awfully similar to the 89’s crash, all of a sudden, music stop, ink stuck and the house of cards start to free fall. It’s just stunning… you can ever imagine how hard you are able to get out unless you take a loss, even right now if you sell, you are still making a profit and ahead of the game, if you keep your greedy mind in check… go learn what happen in the 89 crash.

#41 Dr. Wayne on 05.11.17 at 8:25 pm

What day is this ?

Am I first ?

#42 The Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 05.11.17 at 8:27 pm

At the very least Ontario and New Brunswick may have got it right for individuals who seek financial advise from an advisor, or, is it adviser? Advisers are not like glaciers in the Arctic.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/financial-best-interest-standard-financial-regulators-1.4110767

Fake news. US and Canadian spellings of the same word. — Garth

#43 Tony on 05.11.17 at 8:29 pm

HCG was supposed to report earnings TODAY and this after a one week extension. They know they are bankrupt

#44 bubu on 05.11.17 at 8:29 pm

@ FBI troll… can you buy a house in Toronto on that salary? I won’t take a job like that in Toronto… maybe in another place…

#45 Alib on 05.11.17 at 8:32 pm

How are those crashes coming along in Calgary and Vancouver?

#46 For those about to flop... on 05.11.17 at 8:36 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Coquitlam.

This is another one that was in my Possible Pinkies folder and has now worked its way into negative territory.

Last June these guys spent 1.1m on this 80s build and with the latest asking being 998k it appears they will be grateful just to be made whole again.

People keep telling me that everything is fine ,but I keep finding cases in and around the million dollar mark where a lot of people seem to think that is an acceptable number to spend on a house having trouble offloading their purchases from the current peak of last Spring…

M42BC

2553 Bluebell Avenue, Coquitlam, BC, V3E 2H7
$1,328,000
2017-03-01

2553 Bluebell Avenue, Coquitlam, BC, V3E 2H7
$1,288,000
2017-05-02

Now asking 998k as of yesterday.

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=2553%20Bluebell%20Avenue,%20Coquitlam&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzWEhaSg==

#47 traderJim on 05.11.17 at 8:39 pm

So what’s the ‘normal’ number of MLS listings in GTA?

#48 Raj on 05.11.17 at 8:39 pm

It’s official Now : Canadian Hosing Crisis Has Started !!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-capital-says-future-uncertain-000814812.html

#49 I'm Not Poloz on 05.11.17 at 8:45 pm

In response to those events, Poloz will on may 24, either cut interest rates to 0%, or intent to do so in order to save the real estate Ponzi scheme in Toronto.

This may cause the Loonie (C$) to sink to pre-70c levels because of Poloz. When you’re paying $10 for a cauliflower, or $1.50-$3.00 for a lb of Bananas, Poloz will insist that there is no inflation in Canada, and that the food prices are seasonal.

#50 The Wet Coast on 05.11.17 at 8:50 pm

Do the folks that assume Vancouver has resumed its upward climb has resumed. Research bear trap. Is thats whats happening? Dunno but it could be.

#51 Mark on 05.11.17 at 8:51 pm

“How are those crashes coming along in Calgary and Vancouver?”

Calgary prices are down 30% from the 2011 peak. Actual Vancouver prices are at roughly 2013 levels, not fallen much, but not risen since.

HCG was supposed to report earnings TODAY and this after a one week extension. They know they are bankrupt

I suspect they’re fighting with their accountants behind the scenes. As being forced to double-collateralize their 15-22% loan for mortgages really calls into question the value of those assets.

I guess HCG bulls can take comfort in the fact that the OSFI and CDIC haven’t stepped in and taken the institution over. But certainly they’re watching the situation like a hawk, especially with the falling house prices we’re now experiencing and the likelihood of quoted LTVs being entirely fictious if derived from contrived 2016 prices.

Interesting Job open to the public, why do you think this was posted ???

Because nobody who knows what they’re doing would only work for that salary, perhaps? Especially since the usual pattern of practice in the public service is to start even experienced workers fairly close to the bottom of the ranges.

#52 Smoking Man on 05.11.17 at 8:56 pm

Slow Clap for Wynne

One April 20th, the day my place hit the MLS. There was no way she was going let Smokey, her nemesis on twitter walk away with a lotto ticket.

Nope, she wasn’t waiting a week for the budget. It’s a complicated relationship between us.

She stood up, opened her big mouth and destroyed the real estate market. I had to take a 150k haircut of what I could have got if she wasn’t such a vindictive bitch.

Now she thinks she’s going to win a golden watch, the 427 and the 410, roads that lead to the loyal ethnic vote. Work is done but she deliberately restricted lanes. She will open up those lanes a few months before the election thinking the people of Brampton will fall to their knees and bow to the queen of weirdness.

Sorry, Wynne, the nice people north of the airport are the world’s most House-Horney beings alive, and you just f-kd em.

You did the province, the country an amazing service. Ensuring that a liberal will never be elected anywhere for the next 20 years.

I nominate you for the order of Canada.

Dr. Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics

#53 Josh Simpson on 05.11.17 at 8:59 pm

We sold our 2 rental properties bought back in 2001. We had only $150,000 mortgage left on them but cleared $1.5 million back in February-2017.

We more than doubled our $1.5 million to $3.1 in just days. We have net $2.7 million after taxes.

We bought Home Capital at $5.18 and sold it for $10.71 per share today.

Now, we will make $160,000 a year in TFSA’s, non-registered money as we bought long term bonds and strip bonds.

We will be able to keep $129,000 a year after taxes of that for sure. We are both accountants so we know this is the right figures.

It is awesome we can now retire at our ages of 35 and 36 years old.

No debt and we replaced 80% of our net income as accountants. Bahamas looks good now.

#54 WUL on 05.11.17 at 9:04 pm

The Fort McMurray real estate gangstas have posted April data. Two points of note, to me at any rate.

Active listings of single family vacant lots year to date. April ’16 – 56. April ’17 – 363. Lots of folks simply pulled up stakes and left the burned out neighbourhood.

Townhouse median price year to date – down 24.51 %.

#55 Joe2.0 on 05.11.17 at 9:12 pm

Vancouver housing prices continue to climb says RE Board today.

#56 Bears don't know bull... on 05.11.17 at 9:18 pm

The surge in listings is not a surge. Because of harsh winter and spring weather, the GTA is more susceptible to Seasonality. The nice weather will bring out just as many buyers as there are sellers.

Just as Garth opened the store last week to sell ice cream. There’s barely a difference.

What harsh winter? It was 20 degrees in March. — Garth

#57 choptstix on 05.11.17 at 9:20 pm

#34 ..Millennial-falcon on 05.11.17 at 7:46 pm
Marching in Vancouvers footsteps , torontos market will pause then continue higher just as Vancouver has 604 is Still hot and you can’t even get an offer in on a condo they are selling same day, The buying frenzy continues
—————————————–
agree…condo craze still in Scamcouver.
latest headlines:
”Vancouver home price increases spread to surrounding areas at measurable rate
Business in Vancouver – ‎8 hours ago‎
Row houses in Richmond. A 1% increase in home prices in Vancouver has been shown to cause a 0.45% jump in prices in Richmond and Burnaby, according to the CMHC | Shutterstock.
Related
Vancouver »
It’s called the spillover effect and it’s driving up house prices across the Vancouver region and even into the …Financial Post
These BC cities are seeing the most house price “spill-over” from hot Vancouver marketBuzzBuzzNews

#58 Smoking Man on 05.11.17 at 9:20 pm

Hunter S Thomson.

He talks to me via the UCC, the prick gets real pissed off with my spelling, one day too much in school I’m thinking.

He’s not thinking it through in heaven, they must have good Either or mind fking shit up there, not realizing that his hero Hemingway could not spell worth a shit, no internet I guess.

But he told me to tell you. It was never about Republicans or Democrats why he hated Nixon.

He hated liars.

Hillary or Trump.

Deep down everyone knows who the liars are but your education or more over your indoctrination will cast that vote.

I claim to be the worlds biggest liar in the world.

I don’t lie after 9 pm.

Hunter S Thomson would be a proud deplorable. I dedicate my book that no one bought to my hero.

Smoking Mans Ghost.
Ph.D. in everything that matters.

#59 Livin Large on 05.11.17 at 9:21 pm

LOL, not only is Derek NOT going to get hundreds of $1,000, he’s not going to get 10s of $1,000 either and he’s going to be paying some real cash on his lawyer to find this unfortunate lesson out.

It will take a bare minimum of three years if the ex-buyer lawyers up. Then there’s the nasty legal concept of unjust enrichment to mitigate everything for the next 3+ years not to mention an ex-buyer with every incentive in the world to become judgement proof.

The only way Derek is seeing a penny is if he swallows hard and tries a small claims court suit for the maximum the SCC covers. Even that might still get stymied if the ex-buyer defends and has a contract lawyer argue unjust enrichment.

Take the medicine Derek and get a huge downpayment next time.

#60 choptstix on 05.11.17 at 9:25 pm

”B.C. city now ranks among world’s top 2 luxury home markets, and it’s not Vancouver (it’s Victoria)”

excerpt:
Victoria ranked second on a list of the world’s hottest luxury markets for 2016 in a report released by Christie’s International Real Estate and Chestnut Park Real Estate of Toronto on Wednesday.

The city’s ranking represented a climb from third place in the 2015 report; it didn’t rank among the hottest markets in 2014.

And it’s a ranking that came in a year that was its “best ever” for luxury home sales.
One of the biggest reasons that Victoria showed up in second place was that international buyers are being “deterred by nearby Vancouver’s new 15 per cent tax on overseas capital.”

But Victoria was just one of a number of Pacific Rim markets that showed up high on the rankings.

“Relatively strong local economies alongside national and overseas migration and capital inflows were key contributors to growth in these ‘hot’ luxury property markets,” the report said.

#61 choptstix on 05.11.17 at 9:28 pm

sorry forgot to add link to above excerpt
on victoria beind 2nd hottest for luxury real estate in the world.
http://globalnews.ca/news/3442749/world-hottest-housing-markets/

More realtor marketing crap. How can you give it any credence? — Garth

#62 choptstix on 05.11.17 at 9:28 pm

here is link to above
http://globalnews.ca/news/3442749/world-hottest-housing-markets/

#63 Housing Nerd on 05.11.17 at 9:30 pm

“After months – years, actually – of demand outstripping supply, the tables are turning.” – Garth

————————————————————–

I don’t want to sound racist, but that situation won’t last long because of the massive immigration inflow to the GTA.

There has been no significant increase from historic norms. — Garth

#64 Nemesis on 05.11.17 at 9:31 pm

“We’ll discuss that, and dogs, over ice cream Saturday afternoon.” – ElGarth of BelFounTain

#”It’sGoingToBeFun”…

https://youtu.be/uE0DBpw09SU

[Note to ElGarth: Oh, but that I could… alas, my camel has gone AWOL.]

#65 RedneckBluecollarWhitetrash on 05.11.17 at 9:31 pm

#53 Josh
So you took all your profits from the real-estate lottery and placed a perfect bet on HCG at its exact bottom, knowing it would bounce?
What indicators are you using?
Did you sell HCG short all the way down to $5.18?
This must be a dead-cat bounce since you sold.

#66 Josh Simpson on 05.11.17 at 9:32 pm

I almost forgot, our greatest asset is our humility. My wife and I remain ever humble, and would never dream of boasting of our financial accomplishments. It’s been the key to our spectacular and deserved success.

#67 Josh, you're full of beans! on 05.11.17 at 9:33 pm

#53 Josh Simpson on 05.11.17 at 8:59 pm

I’m laughing my ass of how full of beans you are, “Josh?”

There’s no way you just spent the last 16 years paying down two mortgages, only to throw it all down on HCG.

#68 akashic record on 05.11.17 at 9:34 pm

#53 Josh Simpson

Congrats. Timing, taking risk can work.
Must have been a couple of tight nights.

#69 Livin Large on 05.11.17 at 9:37 pm

On another note, as the Great One say, don’t lose any sleep over Canadian Banks, at least the big six.

Just read their quarterly statement and you will see that their real profits are coming from fees and their wealth management practices. Mortgage lending is but a small portion of their business model now.

I’m old enough to remember the Bank Act changing to allow chartered banks into direct lending on mortgages without having to funnel them through a trust subsidiary.

#70 Bears don't know bull... on 05.11.17 at 9:39 pm

#51 Mark… WRONG. I’m on the ground here and can honestly tell you prices are at best back at late 2015 prices. And that’s only if you’re trying to dump a moldy shack in Van for over assessed.

Anything under a million is considered under valued and is hitting RECORD highs… AS I WRITE THIS!

#71 It is a business on 05.11.17 at 9:39 pm

A settlement worker, who scratched his head and could not figure out why so many people have been issued work permit entering Canada when landed immigrants are struggling to find a job.
“At least they can be consumers. Maybe?”
He guessed.

#72 jas on 05.11.17 at 9:44 pm

Folks, I bet you all have had the frustration of reading and figuring out various date/time formats you come across in emails, on printed documents, receipts, invoices etc.

I think it is about time to standardize two things about dates:
1. The format: to remove any ambiguity ( I say go with two digits for the day, three letters for month and full 4 digits for year and then choose one format for writing it)

2. The location: On ALL documents/receipts/invoices etc one fixed place where the date is to be printed. (top/bottom, right/left corner etc)

There is a reason for standards in measurement/weighing etc….so it should be with date and time.

What do you say?

#73 Smoking Man on 05.11.17 at 9:49 pm

When a writer with no work ethic finds a voice in a drunken weird world of fantasy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7bIbVlIqEc

Almost out of loot. What are the next words?

Let JD answer for you heathens

#74 Tony on 05.11.17 at 9:52 pm

Home Capital report casts doubt on its future as a going concern
‘Material uncertainty exists regarding the company’s future funding capabilities,’ says management
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/home-capital-results-1.4111018

They are toast

#75 Mark on 05.11.17 at 9:59 pm

“We more than doubled our $1.5 million to $3.1 in just days. We have net $2.7 million after taxes.
We bought Home Capital at $5.18 and sold it for $10.71 per share today.”

So you bought rentals at the age of 19 or 20, presumably while in college, and you claim to have put all your money into HCG at precisely the bottom?

Sorry, as much as I’d like to believe, your post just doesn’t pass the smell test.

#76 calgaryPhantom on 05.11.17 at 10:03 pm

DELETED

#77 Knuckle Head on 05.11.17 at 10:05 pm

#53 Josh Simpson.

You were 19 and 20 years of age when you bought the rentals in 2001, while attending Unversity?

#78 toronto1 on 05.11.17 at 10:09 pm

Its all about contagion– all lenders have wised up after the HGC fiasco- no matter what happens to HGC- its already a done deal. Mortgages will be harder to source and will be tied to reality and not la la land.

#1 issue is over capacity, incomes and debt levels show that people are at their debt limit. Too many homes and condo’s have been sold to speculators over the last few years- without these sales, the market would already have stalled out.

Looks like the majority of these speculators are looking to get out- BUT there is not enough organic demand to eat up all of the inventory- nor is there enough credit worthy folks in the GTA that can buy and obtain a legit mortgage even if they wanted to at current price levels

The old or smart money has already gotten out- the few that remain are rushing to sell as they see its going down from here. These are the long term RE owners, who have owned property for decades

For me, that is the number 1 validation that i need that we are precipice of the market rolling over- media, RE agent bias etc.. is all talk, but when the smart money moves pay attention because its usually right…….

#79 calgaryPhantom on 05.11.17 at 10:09 pm

#76. DELETED

————

what rule did I break?

Good taste. — Garth

#80 Tiger Cub on 05.11.17 at 10:14 pm

I’ve been watching this all unfold with a sense of familiarity, as I was in school in Ireland when the Celtic Tiger collapsed.

There are lines in this Economist article about the Irish bust that seem like they could be applied verbatim to the current situation in Southern ON:

http://www.economist.com/node/18176072

While I see a lot of parallels, it does seem like the CA property market is set to cool (or crater?) without the backdrop of a global financial crisis, and without leaving the Big Banks so exposed that the government has to step in as a backstop (which turned the Irish banking crisis into a sovereign debt crisis).

So having lived through a complete meltdown in Ireland (GDP down 14%, 75% of all 20-30 y.o.’s left the country), I’m now wondering what it looks like when a property market melts down within the context of a comparably stable domestic and global financial framework.

Can’t be nearly as bad, right??

#81 Hotdogs from Heaven on 05.11.17 at 10:16 pm

Garth, a question about the Derek issue.

I have not yet read what the amount of the deposit was?

The buyer can back out if they wish, but Derek gets to keep any deposit up to 10% of the agreed upon selling price since all deposits are deemed NON-refundable unless specified otherwise in the contract.

So how much is the deposit cheque sitting in Derek’s lawyers escrow account?

Obviously a lot of people here have little or no experience. Deposits got to into the trust account of the listing brokerage, not the vendor’s lawyer’s trust account. The money is held there until a mutual release is signed by both parties. Unless both agree, the funds are frozen. They do not go to the seller. Legal action is required prior to any dispersal, and the brokerage may have a claim equal to that of the seller’s. — Garth

#82 Lefty on 05.11.17 at 10:16 pm

Canada is getting older.

Click on the link to view 2 charts. Ask yourself if these charts show demographics in any way favourable for real estate in the next 15 – 20 years.

http://cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/1ch6g8t-Aging_Canada.png

#83 Oakville Sucks on 05.11.17 at 10:20 pm

So in my part of Oakville, the number of listings to the number of actual properties up for sale is 2:1… by that I mean same house is listed twice!

On a side note, 2 properties that were up for rent have been taken off the market and prepped to sell!

#84 YVR on 05.11.17 at 10:22 pm

YVR renters have even been priced out of the condo market….even a 100 km away from the city centre.

Why aren’t there any comments here about the true causes of high prices that no one seems to want to talk about?

And we have been talking about the impending correction/crash/melt for almost 10 years now.

Toronto may slow down but if you think your prices are ridiculous now, come see Vancouvers’ and realize they can go much much higher.

#85 Smoking Man on 05.11.17 at 10:24 pm

When msm finds its voice

https://youtu.be/u9Dg-g7t2l4

#86 YVR on 05.11.17 at 10:25 pm

#51 Mark on 05.11.17 at 8:51 pm
“How are those crashes coming along in Calgary and Vancouver?”

Calgary prices are down 30% from the 2011 peak. Actual Vancouver prices are at roughly 2013 levels, not fallen much, but not risen since.

—————–

Get this idiot out of here.

#87 Welcome to Slurrey on 05.11.17 at 10:25 pm

#51 Mark ……… prices are not at 2013 , as someone else wrote here ………… id say they are hovering at 2016 levels not the peak of mania but the climb to it ……. just look at fvreb stats ……numbers dont lie

#88 Chaddywack on 05.11.17 at 10:29 pm

What I don’t understand is why listings haven’t ballooned in Vancouver yet.

I heard that condos are going crazy, but I think that’s due to Christy Bucks (the interest free loan BC gave to first timers)

#89 Gregor Samsa on 05.11.17 at 10:34 pm

>#86 YVR Calgary prices are down 30% from the 2011 peak

Actually they are not. Calgary houses and townhouses are currently at an all time high, and condos are more or less flat since 2011. This is in the face of huge oversupply, the highest unemployment rate in the country, and a lousy economy.

Calgary is perhaps the greatest evidence of all that Canada’s housing market is detached from the economy and reality, and is simply based on cheap money and house lust.

Chart:
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

#90 Smoking Man on 05.11.17 at 10:35 pm

A song

https://youtu.be/3cQNkIrg-Tk

#91 Am I missing something here? on 05.11.17 at 10:37 pm

Home purchased 1998 for 90K in suburbia of Vancouver. Recently sold for 1.2mill. An increase of house prices by 13 times but have wages matched that growth.

This is madness. Are people that stupid to throw money away when rates are down and be left with a life sentence to pay off the house and stress over rising rates?

#92 mike from mtl on 05.11.17 at 10:43 pm

Man fellow Canadians can’t talk about anything other than RE.

Garth love ya (in a professional way) but even today if NATIONALLY all RE is 50% less than today it would go from being insane, to simply ripoff.

Even the much vaunted US “correction” is total fiction and buried in averages and manipulation. They’re well on their way back to 2009 levels in most cases, and on to bubble 2.0. All desirable US cities, NYC, SF, LA, Chi, etc are all still completely stupid today and nobody “normal” can afford them in the conversional sense. This is after a so-called ‘correction’ and 40-50% haircut.

Sure some crappy second and third rate areas ‘corrected’ and stayed that way – think Miami, Dallas. But even in flyoverlandia your average crapshack not too unlike brampton fetches 400-500k real dollars.

As usual Canaderp is always 10 years behind the US so as long as money is cheap, this garbage will continue unabated.

#93 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.11.17 at 10:48 pm

#52 Smoking Man on 05.11.17 at 8:56 pm

Slow Clap for Wynne

One April 20th, the day my place hit the MLS. There was no way she was going let Smokey, her nemesis on twitter walk away with a lotto ticket.

Nope, she wasn’t waiting a week for the budget. It’s a complicated relationship between us.

She stood up, opened her big mouth and destroyed the real estate market. I had to take a 150k haircut of what I could have got if she wasn’t such a vindictive bitch.
————————————-

LOL!!!

#94 Livin Large on 05.11.17 at 10:53 pm

Yes the deposit is held in trust by the vendor’s broker presuming this wasn’t a FSBO deal and yes the deposit is only returned upon mutual release but still, the larger the deposit the more leverage the vendor has when dealing with a backing out purchaser.

One of the sad lessons I learned from having been married to RE agent is that the selling agent always wants a deposit that will cover the expected commissions so the agents/brokers are protected.

As I recall, the vendor has the right to condition any offer acceptance on a sizeable down payment. And when you’re dealing with the prices that houses have reached then it is only prudent to expect a high incidence of buyer’s remorse so a deposit significant to deter any skating is in order.

#95 John in Mtl on 05.11.17 at 10:53 pm

@ #72 jas on 05.11.17 at 9:44 pm

Quote: “1. The format: …

There is a reason for standards in measurement/weighing etc….so it should be with date and time. What do you say?”

I think the best date format is the international one: YYYYMMDD. There can be no ambiguity there; a Year …has Months … months have Days.

#96 Josh Simpson on 05.11.17 at 10:56 pm

To all you jealous haters, yes, we purchased rentals at ages 18 and 19 when we started university. We saved our allowances from the time we were 10 and 11 and used that for the down payment in 2001. Why is that so hard to believe?

And also yes, after 16 years of being conservative and paying down debt, we sold and bet the entire proceeds on the stock of a failing company and doubled our money in two days. Again, what is so hard to believe about that?

Finally, you’ll notice that we invested all $3.1 million, and expect $129k in returns. No mention of taxes whatsoever, not on the sale of the rentals, nor on the HCG stock gamble, nor on the expected income stream. Because accountants would never consider the tax implications right? Yet you jealous peasants have the audacity to doubt my word?

#97 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.11.17 at 10:57 pm

#75 Mark on 05.11.17 at 9:59 pm

“We more than doubled our $1.5 million to $3.1 in just days. We have net $2.7 million after taxes.
We bought Home Capital at $5.18 and sold it for $10.71 per share today.”

So you bought rentals at the age of 19 or 20, presumably while in college, and you claim to have put all your money into HCG at precisely the bottom?

Sorry, as much as I’d like to believe, your post just doesn’t pass the smell test.
—————————

^ Neither do your claims that GTA RE peaked years ago. Still waiting for your source.

#98 Bobby13 on 05.11.17 at 10:59 pm

Yes, numbers can give an inaccurate sense if they adjust them to show a narrative that they want mabe for personal gain. I’ve personally seen false numbers put into assessed values and sale prices as well. Street sense is imperative in noticing this.
Garth there has never been more risks to the banks in Canada than now.
Cheers.

#99 Josh Simpson on 05.11.17 at 11:31 pm

@ #91 Am I missing something here?

Home purchased 1998 for 90K in suburbia of Vancouver. Recently sold for 1.2mill. An increase of house prices by 13 times but have wages matched that growth.

I’m Josh Simpson, accountant extraordinaire, and my income has increased 13 times in the past year. I’m that awesome. Of course, it helps that I never pay a dime in tax, and always keep 100% of my investment proceeds. I’d humbly request that you bow down before me in acknowledgement of my amazing financial prowess, but my humility and egalitarian nature won’t allow it. I will therefore refrain from overtly demanding recognition of my obvious superiority. But you can feel free to bow voluntarily if you wish. in fact you probably should.

#100 jas on 05.11.17 at 11:44 pm

#96 Josh Simpson
yes, we purchased rentals at ages 18 and 19 when we started university. We saved our allowances from the time we were 10 and 11 and used that for the down payment in 2001.
Why is that so hard to believe?

I tell you why it is so hard to believe.
From the age of 10 to the age of 19, how much you could have accumulated from your allowance for down payment? (for a doll house may be)
And was it a lender like HCG who lent you to buy rental real estate while you were studying at the university, and no income?

Get out of town Josh !!

#101 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 05.11.17 at 11:49 pm

#35 # 37 CAREFUL FOR WHAT YOU WISH FOR THERE FOLKS

Taking a swing at our treasured chartered Canadian banks makes for great fodder-creation on this blog.

But St. Garth of Accounting Prim and Proper does really know: our banks are cash rich, profitable, and can stand good hits from time to time.

Every single Canadian, and millions of foreigners, depend on our banks’ dividends for any number of reasons including basic survival.

Spinning yarns about selling short and urging us to watch where the banking “action” really is, the NYSE, is a cheap shot from someone who damn well needs to know better. Buck up their pal.

America’s banks are not as “good” as our’s for a variety of reasons.

They don’t have to be because they’ll always get bailed out by the US Fed or the taxpayers, or both, if they screw up as they frequently do.

Why?

Because these banks are the financial organizations that manage the moment-to-moment fiscal comings and goings of the American Empire.

The US central bank, the Fed, is their orchestra leader. Don’t screw with those folks, alright?

SO…

If Canadian stocks, sucker-punched by our failing RE markets, really get whacked, through lower prices, the response will be quick and brutal: dividend cuts and staff layoffs.

Do you know someone who works for RBC, or CM or BNS, or TD?

I do.

My banker who has no job security and never will. Hanging by threads is what they’re doing these days.

MEANWHILE, BACK AT THE US/CANADIAN TRADE RANCH

Get to know this name and never forget it: Robert Lighthizer.

Thursday the US Senate confirmed him as the new American Trade Representative.

He is a one-man commando cohort.

A Washington DC (swamp dweller) lawyer with expertise in foreign trade with China and other lesser countries, Mr. Lighthizer is a no nonsense American patriot, nominated by President Trump, to “deal with” NAFTA and maybe softwood lumber and dairy and anything else of interest. How about banking and IT? Sure, why not?

This guy hates to lose.

Talk to the Chinese about this guy. They got into a trade tussle with him decades ago and the row was heard all the way around the world to the WTO. Don’t know what was the outcome.

He also pounded Japan and the UK into the ground over “dumping” of steel during other, ahem, “negotiations.”

And the list goes on.

Mexico was also on an earlier radar scope of his, to its detriment.

During the 1980s, he toiled for President Reagan on trade issues some of which are listed above.

So, Mr. Trudeau, can you find a Canadian equivalent of this American pit-bull?

Hope so. Or else…problems…likely, maybe. We’ll soon know.

BTW

If Mr. Horgan becomes BC’s next premier how will he and his new bunk-mate Greenie boss Andrew Weaver deal with Mr. L? Carefully.

#102 Deplorable Dude on 05.11.17 at 11:49 pm

A new medical condition has appeared…..TDS

….Trump Derangement Syndrome.

I have friends who I think are becoming seriously unhinged…absolutely obsessed with posting Anti-Trump crap on Facebook.

The liberal hypocrisy and fake tears over Comey is laughable.

https://youtu.be/skYdAYPaU1k

Nearly 2 years of relentless negativity, propaganda and fake news by our press is turning Liberals into Insane rabid hyperventilating lumps of hate….everything Trump does is a constitutional crisis worthy of impeachment.

Journalists don’t ‘investigate’ any more…they are ‘narrative engineers’….

Comey is just the latest example…

WaPo: Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein threatened to quit. – Um, no he didn’t. NY Times: Director James Comey asked for more funds. – Um, no he didn’t.

Some ‘alternative facts’ as the MSN deem fit to make stuff up on the fly to suite their narrative…..

Trump is not under any personal ‘Russian’ investigation.

There is ZERO evidence of any collusion between Trump/Russia. Despite multiple investigations going on forever. This has been confirmed on multiple occasions by those investigating, including James Clapper (NIA), Sally Yates (Ex As-AG), James Comey, Dianne Feinstein, Devin Nunes, Joe Manchin….the list goes on.

Trump is the most vetted President in History…if there was any dirt on him, we’d have known about it long ago, and Clinton would be in the Oval Office now.

#103 jas on 05.11.17 at 11:52 pm

#95 John in Mtl

Good idea for date format to be YYYYMMDD

And what about location?
Once few of us here agree upon this, we got to start a campaign to implement it across Canada!!

Sincerely, I think something should be done to standardize two things about the date.
Imagine how much less of a headache it will be for all of us (more so for book keepers/accountants/auditors\/sales/support departments/cashiers etc.)

#104 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 05.12.17 at 12:06 am

#78 toronto1 on 05.11.17 at 10:09 pm
Its all about contagion– all lenders have wised up after the HGC fiasco- no matter what happens to HGC- its already a done deal. Mortgages will be harder to source and will be tied to reality and not la la land.

#1 issue is over capacity, incomes and debt levels show that people are at their debt limit. Too many homes and condo’s have been sold to speculators over the last few years- without these sales, the market would already have stalled out.

Looks like the majority of these speculators are looking to get out- BUT there is not enough organic demand to eat up all of the inventory- nor is there enough credit worthy folks in the GTA that can buy and obtain a legit mortgage even if they wanted to at current price levels

The old or smart money has already gotten out- the few that remain are rushing to sell as they see its going down from here. These are the long term RE owners, who have owned property for decades

For me, that is the number 1 validation that i need that we are precipice of the market rolling over- media, RE agent bias etc.. is all talk, but when the smart money moves pay attention because its usually right…….

Exaxtly. The mortgage and realtor shills on this blog can talk all the BS they like but the market is rolling over. The music has stopped and everyone is looking for an emtpy seat (buyers) but they dont exsist in this bubble. This time of year everything should be selling but nothing is moving. Every speculator who bought in February are screwed.All speculators in general can not hold a falling asset with negative income on a sub prime mortgage. This crash will be fast and hard. HELOCs will get called. Guess what everyone is broke. The ponzi scheme will come crashing down.

#105 paulo on 05.12.17 at 12:11 am

my gut feeling is that in the end we will find out that our banks have indeed been playing the sub prime lender and handing out mortgages they likely should not have, likely using the likes of hgc and eqt as the front men.
my guess is that the truth of the matter is that 60 to 80%of the paper pushed, Mortgages in the last year in the GTA would be non conforming if put to the full underwriting review.
this has contributed to the out of control ponzi game that is about to fall apart.
the banks will weather it,and likely tighten up liquidity and move to excessive due diligence on new loans
this will just steepen the drop but will make sure they, the big banks don’t get covered in S#@%T as it hits the fan. lets face it the median income in the GTA is 78K
and based on sales prices for sfd or even slanty semi’s
assuming you had the 30% down-stroke 500 large at least,you would need to be making at least 300K a year to be qualified………..

#106 paulo on 05.12.17 at 12:15 am

#96 troll or insider trader….ummm troll.

#107 Entrepreneur on 05.12.17 at 12:30 am

Oh the game that the banks and realtors play and with taxpayers dollars and people lives. Some how I do not feel great about our government to allow this to happen, a shame.

B.C. will have to wait for another two weeks to find out some ridings that are questionable as Liberals are at 43%, NDP at 41% and the Greens 3%, a tight race.

Christy said that the people have spoken and the election was a learning experience. Oh really, Christy been in power for 8 years and didn’t notice the people were discontent. She is already sweet talking with the Greens as they can tip the scale in deals.

Peter Mansbridge asked Weaver if the Liberals gave him a cabinet seat would he take it. Weaver is very adamant about sticking to the Green agenda.

“What money/power can buy” but that saying is “long time gone” (Dixie Chick title).

“One more thing” (Columbo) notice the election map and the NDP winnings are on the coastline (protect our waters) and the Liberals close to the mountains. Wondering if the people living near Alberta rely on employment in Alberta, voted Liberal?

Good job voting and the fight continues.

#108 Hold your breath on 05.12.17 at 12:38 am

Trump just announced a “massive” NAFTA renegotiation today now that his “trade czar” Robert Lighthizer has been overwhelmingly confirmed by the Senate.

Lighthizer favors tariffs and the US Senate told him to get tough on Canada (they want an “America First” trade policy).

Trump eager for a big win.

Add to this mix Ross, truly a go for the jugular shark, and you MAY have the beginning of an “external economic shock” to Canada.

I hope not.

What is frightening is that the US wants the “massive” renegotiation completed by early next year, what took years starting in the late 80s to the inception of NAFTA in 1994.

Reads very much like a “my way, or the highway” negotiation schedule.

Hope not, then again, financially vulnerable Canada will be an easy target for Trump et. al. and guess who will be guarding our interests:

The avowed feminist, babe in the woods Trudeau who has been falling all over himself phoning Trump to welcome a renegotiation and quickly so.

Yup, that says it all to me.

#109 Ronaldo on 05.12.17 at 12:52 am

#13 Trumpocalypse2017 on 05.11.17 at 6:52 pm

Garth, I have an urgent suggestion for you:

The chaos now unfolding in Washington suggests strongly Trump will seek a major military distraction very soon.

The metrics I employ now indicate a 63% probability of nuclear events by Saturday.

****Please reschedule the Belfountain meetup.

How about tomorrow, Friday, at 4:20 instead?

This will allow us all to evacuate the GTA and survive Saturday.
—————————————————————–
You worry far too much. Relax, take a deep breath and have yourself a good stiff shot of JD. That should calm you down. You’re greying far too soon.

#110 YVR on 05.12.17 at 12:55 am

#91 Am I missing something here? on 05.11.17 at 10:37 pm
Home purchased 1998 for 90K in suburbia of Vancouver. Recently sold for 1.2mill. An increase of house prices by 13 times but have wages matched that growth.

This is madness. Are people that stupid to throw money away when rates are down and be left with a life sentence to pay off the house and stress over rising rates?

——-

Yup!

You are missing something.

So how are people qualifying for the $1.2 Million if wages haven’t kept pace (taking into account lower interest rates)?

Yes, your are missing something. But I won’t say it.

#111 Vit on 05.12.17 at 1:00 am

—-In the last 24 hours the number of listings in the GTA-Golden Horeshoe increased by more than 3,200—-

What do you think does 3,200 home owners will do ones they sell their homes .?? Go and rent 600 sqft condo , no way . Most parents will not move their kids to another school . And the biggest problem with the condo no parking . The average family has 3-4 cars and most what you get with a condo is 1 parking spot . So all does sellers become a buyers and demand will pick up again . I would say give it till Oct- Nov market will fly up again since fundamentals that propelling this market did not changed .
Personally I was considering to sell in Feb. but with 3 cars and a dog no way to get a condo, even most homes have no dog policies despite $3000 rent.

#112 Hot Money Mama on 05.12.17 at 1:19 am

Houses up almost 50% year-over-year all across China. Not just the super-cities, but the whole damn country.

My Chinese colleague monitors the market over there. He does very well with real estate over here. But even he is sickened by the influence of housing inflation over there, and how it makes its influence known over here.

He said RE prices might move sideways for a few months but that it is inevitable that it will start climbing higher again because the Chinese market is still on fire.

Trust me, this guy hates the massive wealth flowing into Canada because even he has been completely priced out of areas he could have easily lived in just 7 years ago.

He was a working class Chinese immigrant. The new Chinese immigrants are not working class. They are the wealth class. Your politicians sold you out folks. But you shouldn’t be surprised. The secret document on the future rise of electrical rates should be the least of your concerns.

#113 Delusional on 05.12.17 at 1:34 am

If folks think a major housing correction won’t put a dent in the TSX .

Moody’s action is a warning call

#114 Karma on 05.12.17 at 2:05 am

#41 Dr. Wayne on 05.11.17 at 8:25 pm
“What day is this ?

Am I first ?”

No.

Forty-First…

#115 Karma on 05.12.17 at 2:11 am

#46 For those about to flop… on 05.11.17 at 8:36 pm
“Pink Pollen falling in Coquitlam.

This is another one that was in my Possible Pinkies folder and has now worked its way into negative territory.

Last June these guys spent 1.1m on this 80s build and with the latest asking being 998k it appears they will be grateful just to be made whole again.

M42BC

2553 Bluebell Avenue, Coquitlam, BC, V3E 2H7
$1,328,000
2017-03-01

2553 Bluebell Avenue, Coquitlam, BC, V3E 2H7
$1,288,000
2017-05-02

Now asking 998k as of yesterday.”

Damn…. that’s terrible.

At $2,600 a month, buddy’s about $900 cash flow negative per month, or about $10,800 for the year. That’s assuming 75% LTV mtg on $1 million and at 2.69% IR (so it’s obviously higher than my above estimate).

People can’t do simple math, eh?

#116 For those about to flop... on 05.12.17 at 2:13 am

Pink Pollen falling in Burnaby

This one is probably going to shock a couple of people that don’t think that anything is going on in Vancouver.

People have been impatient that they can’t see anything changing and I told a lot of people a while back it was going to take a while for me to get written confirmation of what I already knew ,and that is the fact that people are losing money in Vancouver everyday, and some blue collared bum from Tasmania is one of the few people the seems interested in doing the media’s job for them.

If no one wants to help me with my case results in real time then I am going to have to wait until things are updated,but it was always my intention to show the documents to prove what I have been trying to tell people.

There is still a ridiculous amount of money being made on real estate deals each day but if you overpay like these guys did then you are asking for trouble down the line if you are over leveraged.

This is one of my old Pink Snow cases and the most striking thing about this case for me was that it was a 2015 purchase and they still took a roughly 200k loss after expenses if I have been advised correctly.

I guess I should also point out that it was sold 300k less than assessed so make of that what you will.

People started to take small losses earlier in the year and at the moment it only seems like a trickle but I’m not sure if the correction has to be that much deeper before the seasonal slowdown turns it into a flood or if it reverts back to a drought.

I have hundreds of cases like this one ,I just need bc assessment to do the updates and I will show you guys what’s going on as best I can…

M42BC

5398 Springdale Court, Burnaby

SALES IN THE LAST 3 YEARS)

31/Mar/2017$1,630,000

01/Dec/2015$1,710,000

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzVlNCTg==

#117 rates vs capital on 05.12.17 at 2:13 am

So many posters thinking HCG is a contagion, and that a NDP-Green coalition will finally prompt a housing collapse, as these two parties have more interventionist policies in the housing market (e.g. the Greens would righty double the foreign buyers tax and implement it throughout the province).

But lets just re-cap the last 8 years of housing predications and ‘should have’ events linked to the correction of a 13 year bull run….

FEDERAL MEASURES TO COOL THE MARKET
The feds have eliminated zero down/40 year mortgages; increased the required downpayment; change the loan to equity rations; clamped on investment properties. And prices keep going up….

A DELUGE OF HOUSING SUPPLY
Nationally, we are building 2 homes for every person. We heard of overbuilding in Vancouver in 2011 and 2012 that would flood the market. We heard of 40,000 condos coming online in TO that would flood the market. Now, the condos in TO have been absorbed and all he hear about is a lack of supply in TO and Vancouver. Prices keep going up…

MOUNTING AND CRIPPLING PERSONAL DEBT
Every year, Canadians achieve a new ‘record’ level of debt that blows everyone away and will cause the house of cards to fall. Years ago we were spending 140% of our income and now its 167%. This is much worse than in the US before their price correction. Prices keep going up…

NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL RECESSIONS
Anemic growth and a transition to part time work from full time, coupled with commodity price collapses, were all supposed to cripple the market. We have had several quarter of recessionary growth, and a collapse of the major revenue generator in several provinces. And prices go up and remain flat in those provinces with ‘recessions’…

CREDIT TIGHTENING
Our so-called prudent banks were engaged in tightening credit and increasing their due diligence on mortgage approvals. Yes, prices go up despite investigations into fraud and bending of the rules….

FOREIGN CAPITAL AND RESIDENT CONTROLS
Currency clamp downs in country’s like China, coupled with a BC foreign buyer’s tax, were supposed to stall if not kill the market. Well, Vancouver and its surrounding communities are having their prices re-inflated after a temporary lull. Prices going up…

So to summarize – the feds try to cool the market; we have recessions and anemic growth; and explosion of personal debt; overbuilding of houses; rising interest rates; foreign buyers taxes; and all that happens is that prices continue to climb in the hottest markets for years…

So what exactly is going to stop this juggernaut that has not stopped it after 13 years?

#118 Tony on 05.12.17 at 2:36 am

Re: #89 Gregor Samsa on 05.11.17 at 10:34 pm

Edmonton resale condos, apartments and townhouses are selling today at 50 percent of their 2007 peak. Calgary resale condos, apartments and townhouses are selling at 70 percent of their 2008 peak.

#119 Jane24 on 05.12.17 at 3:09 am

I was a RE agent in TO during the 1980’s crash, which also happened in April just as the Spring market was supposed to be at its peak. The phones stopped ringing in a day, the open houses became crickets the next weekend. Prices hung on for a while but some folk have to sell – death, divorce, job move and those lower sales reduced averages in road after road.

Few of my vendors were wise enough to be financially able to get in front of the price curve down and were always behind the market in their reductions. They didn’t sell. The result was stress, tears and divorce.

Like today a lot had purchased before selling the original house so were limited in the reductions they could offer, had negative rentals or held paper for new builds in the far future. The less able they were financially to be in this position, the more junk property they seemed to own.

After a couple of years of this I quit being a RE agent. I could still turn deals but the human grief involved in a declining market started to really get to me. Their stress became, my stress. I moved to England to live by the sea and contrary to the many comments about RE agents low IQ, I got a PhD and become a university professor in business.

So when I say that there are sad human times coming I do know of what I speak. Families were ruined for a decade or more in the 1980’s crash. All through greed. If you have a house to sell now list low and stay lower than all the competition. Your only objective is to get out. Profit is secondary.

#120 Stock Picker on 05.12.17 at 4:36 am

First….Derek doesn’t have to wait and prove damages….it’s Ontario…..common law……not Quebec…Napoleonic Code. He can sue for specific performance, immediately.

Second…..unless his agent was a total dipwad…..then he’s sitting on a very large deposit that has been contractually designated as liquidated damages…..and he keeps the whole thing. You can count on the agent making a claim against the deposit for full commission whether the deal goes through or not……agencies are greedy that way. That’s why the number one rule in a real estate sale is “always collect a deposit larger than or equal to your Commission”.

Right about the banks…..I’m not going to give my research and strategies away but……..the sale is on….and the farther they fall the more I will buy. Baby…..bath water…….investors dream scenario.

And….what did I warn you about in Europe…leading up to the French election…..the reported uptick in the economy was all an orchestrated scam to fool people into thinking that the Boyz in Belgium had it alll under control. Well…..they don’t and stocks are falling because the fact ndamentals in Europe are a disaster. Hope you didn’t get carried up in the hype.

#121 Made For TV Actor on 05.12.17 at 4:36 am

@ #95 John in Mtl

I agree with YYYYMMDD. This way the number is always increasing as well.

#122 Marc bastle on 05.12.17 at 6:04 am

The only thing that will be hit harder than the banks are REITs. Look at what is happening in Alberta. The next phase will see surprise REIT failures, then one of he big banks will require a bailout.

Like overleveraged homeowners, financial institutions will appear solvent until the moment the market changes. Get out of anything that is credit dependant and overly financialized.

#123 Question on 05.12.17 at 6:33 am

How does one go about checking the number of new listings in a given 24 hour period?

#124 pBrasseur on 05.12.17 at 6:51 am

Nothing will change. Canadians view Real Estate as religion. Any drop, will be viewed as a buying opportunity. Dan.t #7

You’re wrong, in the end the laws of mathematics apply to everybody, even to stubborn Canadians. In the end presumed wealth based on debt needs to confirmed by income and productivity, without it values will evaporate.

#125 Eurovision on 05.12.17 at 6:57 am

As predicted, HCG bounced another 20%, here comes the fun part.

#126 Smoking Man on 05.12.17 at 7:03 am

Derek

Advice for anyone who sold and the buyer is trying to bail.
Get a high priced downtown lawyer to send the letter.

The buyers lawyer will recognize the firm and advise his clients that not only will you be on the hook for the damages but also the huge leagal fees.

Problem solved.

#127 Leo Trollstoy on 05.12.17 at 7:42 am

#53 Josh Simpson on 05.11.17 at 8:59 pm

That’s an amazing success story. Details pls!!

#128 maxx on 05.12.17 at 7:43 am

“Debt is extreme….”

So much so that those without it have become statistical aberrations.

Those with no debt AND assets, paradigmatic.

“Le freak, c’est chic!”

#129 FLHTK on 05.12.17 at 7:47 am

Houses will heat up again, then all the inventory will be scooped for record profits again before the final let down…as interest rates finally rise…One more round of horny house hunters I think

I want to thank whoever posted yesterday of Garths model ETF diversification portfolio in response to someone else……Thank you. I’m finally on the right path now within my TFSA.

#130 Varano on 05.12.17 at 7:55 am

@Josh Simpson,
You have zero humility if you’re bragging about your net income on an internet site where no one cares about you.
Get a grip.

#131 TurnerNation on 05.12.17 at 8:14 am

Supposed to rain tmr pm?
How many wet blog dogs can the General Store fit.

How cozy do you like to be? — Garth

#132 paulo on 05.12.17 at 8:17 am

# 117 rates vs capitol:

Try Donald Trump and a trade war/trashed NAFTA and a
possible BAT TAX.

#133 CJBob on 05.12.17 at 8:26 am

I was in Victoria from May 4 – 9, my third time there. The weather was fantastic (my last trip it rained the entire time) with incredible views of the mountains, ocean and city. I lost count of how many craft brewers are there and lots of independent restaurants and coffee shops.

I went to several open houses and it’s still a sellers market. With many boomers retiring over the next 5 years I would expect Victoria to hold up well vs. Vancouver. A top spot to retire in Canada with half the rain of YVR.

#134 maxx on 05.12.17 at 8:28 am

#9 FBI troll on 05.11.17 at 6:36 pm

“Interesting Job open to the public, why do you think this was posted ???

1. Manager (RE-06), Risk Measurement and Analytics Assessment Services
Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada
Toronto (Ontario)”

Just one? I’d have thought that Canada needs boatloads of these……….

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.17 at 8:36 am

@#102 Deplorable Dud
“if there was any dirt on him, we’d have known about it long ago, and Clinton would be in the Oval Office now….”
******

Not to worry.
His own mouth will sink him as well as the advancing stages of alzheimers. While a person younger than 45 cant run for the Presidency….There should be an age limit for how OLD a President can be. Because the stress is turning him batshit crazy.
Constantly fabricationg things, contradicting himself, endless drivel….The press loves it

Oh and just in case you think I’m a slobbering , blubbering, pandering Liberal whining for impeachment…nah I’d rather see him stick around and prove to all you one dimensional deplorables how totally out of his depth he really is….and if it takes him starting a nuclear war with North Korea….Bonus!
Clinton? she’s no peach either but at least she knew when to shut up.

#136 maxx on 05.12.17 at 8:36 am

#17 Bobby on 05.11.17 at 6:57 pm

“I recall the last real estate meltdown in the 90’s in Ontario…..This won’t end well. The real question is, who will everyone blame for the carnage?”

Simple. The idiots responsible for squashing rates.

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.17 at 8:40 am

@#109 Ronaldo
“You worry far too much. Relax, take a deep breath and have yourself a good stiff shot of JD. That should calm you down. You’re greying far too soon.”
******

The only way Pox2017 will have a drink is if he steals it from his parents liquor cabinet….

#138 maxx on 05.12.17 at 8:44 am

#31 bellend on 05.11.17 at 7:41 pm

“Derek is never getting his money eh?”

…but the lawyer certainly will.

#139 traderJim on 05.12.17 at 9:00 am

I thought #13 Trumpocalypse was just a humorous troll, but now I suspect he is actually a spokesman for the Democratic Party. Or maybe ‘he’ is Maxine Waters.

I now am forced to admit that President Trump is as stupid as some people say.

Funny how he keeps outsmarting the Dems.

#140 pBrasseur on 05.12.17 at 9:04 am

One thing you should not count on is trouble at the banks. – Garth

Depends what you means by trouble. I don’t expect any of the big banks to downright fail but profits will certainly be affected and with that will come branch closures and human resource “right sizing”. Bank stocks would most likely be affected and given the size of the sector in Canada that is a big deal both for stocks and for the economy.

At the very best we should expect a slow but relentless erosion of our standard of living, our currency while our governments sink further into debt. At worse we get an all-out financial crisis and economic s**t storm. I believe it will be the former but the later can’t be excluded.

#141 doom on 05.12.17 at 9:08 am

#53 Josh Simpson on 05.11.17 at 8:59 pm

you may want to live on the west coast of the island, the east coast won’t fare as well when the… um… meteor crashes into the atlantic

#142 crossbordershopper on 05.12.17 at 9:09 am

i dont think people currently understand the lifestyle that the new immigrants have and how their contribution to our society is changing Canada.
East Indians and chinese primarily dont have pets. You used to be able to buy live pets at the mall. Those days changed with regulations
The whole concept of farming is still the domain of old and getting older white men. No one comes to Canada to become a farmer. No 12 year old of any background saids i want to grow up to be a farmer.
Cottages, smoking, drinking, higher end clothing stores(hbc and sears numbers suck). Immigrants dont buy homes with pools. All those numbers go down, immigrants are quite simple basic people, discount grocery stores(i have no idea what sobeys can do to increase their numbers, their high end grocery stores and everyone in canada and growing every day, are poor and well, price sensitive. Their western canada numbers suck not because of low oil and poor timed acquisition, its because ethnics buy completely different items than prepacked food products at a much higher margin. Do you know the margin on rice, dale, (split pea), and beans are? you guessed it low. Walmart and Amazon will be the only two companies left, worldwide logistics, low overhead, low margin,
The future of Canada is of more immigrants, changing society, broken families, wide difference between wealthy educated, like 1%er and the vast majority of people. The recent numbers showing the slowest wage growth in canada history coupled with a robust real estate market, is the same. immigration is about the banks, the government, and the 100 families that run Canada are about higher real estate prices and lower wages. i dont see how you can argue the numbers.
take your money and go somewhere warm and cheap, and relax the rest of your life, what are you doing driving down the 401 everyday. im a millionaire, my home is worth a million, great, so you want your coffee a double double as you go to work this morning.
remember we all work for the natives, your home on our native land is true. that i can assure you will never change. it has been before canada was even a country, and trudeau now requires every canadian coming to canada to swear to uphold those agreements. look into it. google it.
your children will be paying taxes to a natives children till the end of time. reality hurts while you sip your tim hortons. i still dont know why immigrants come here, sure wages in india are low, due to competition of so many people.

#143 Flip! on 05.12.17 at 9:11 am

Wait, Does Garth talk to people in Belfountain on Saturdays? I would like to attend if that is a real thing.

#144 Farquad on 05.12.17 at 9:14 am

#15 Randy on 05.11.17 at 6:56 pm

too bad. most of the dogs you will encounter have one or are the the other.

#145 Tony on 05.12.17 at 9:24 am

Rate vs Capital

What a pumping shill of a joke you are. You are terrified . Lots of air pockets on the way down. :)

#146 isuckless on 05.12.17 at 9:29 am

RE virus is spreading to Ottawa:
http://www.obj.ca/article/april-oreb-stats-show-ottawa-real-estate-trending-towards-sellers-market

#147 matthew Arrigo on 05.12.17 at 9:29 am

#53 Josh Simpson on 05.11.17 at 8:59 pm

Loser… I have you beat.

I bought 8620 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class A shares in 1964… just sayin’

#148 Ole Doberman on 05.12.17 at 10:05 am

#89 Gregor Samsa on 05.11.17 at 10:34 pm

>#86 YVR Calgary prices are down 30% from the 2011 peak

Actually they are not. Calgary houses and townhouses are currently at an all time high, and condos are more or less flat since 2011. This is in the face of huge oversupply, the highest unemployment rate in the country, and a lousy economy.

Calgary is perhaps the greatest evidence of all that Canada’s housing market is detached from the economy and reality, and is simply based on cheap money and house lust.

Chart:
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html
———————————————————
The question remaining is how much longer can the tower of babel hold?

Peoples EI and severance package must’ve run out by now, and those trying to rent out their property have a tough market.

Seems like only rising interest rates can do the deed.

#149 unbalanced on 05.12.17 at 10:08 am

Garth, Garth, Garth. Where did this Josh Simpleton come from? He states they have been saving since 10. I thought you have always said to never buy a house without someone you haven’t slept with. I wonder if him and his sister reported all the taxes. Sounds like another b!@##! story just like you know who!!!!!

#150 Balmuto on 05.12.17 at 10:12 am

same old same old:

http://www.bnn.ca/canadian-home-prices-up-in-april-lifted-by-hot-toronto-market-teranet-1.749914

#151 Smoking Man on 05.12.17 at 10:14 am

Talk about being late to a party.

With the blue dots all over the map, this business plan is desend to failure.

http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/toronto-real-estate-is-about-to-go-on-the-block-621847723.html

#152 Rich Young on 05.12.17 at 10:24 am

AND RETAIL IS DEAD… Calgary home prices remain up as refugees are now being leant cash to buy decayed homes… and … when with the STOCK MARKET BUBBLE pop as every retailer and mall is falling apart. Food stamps in the USA are at a record high and stocks at a record high… this does not add up!

#153 Livin Large on 05.12.17 at 10:27 am

You nailed it Smokey, cause all dem legal beagles in the boonies are gonna run for cover after they see the letterhead.

Poor Derek is going to have to cough up the $5,000 retainer and still wait 3+ years of getting papered to death (all the while paying the lawyer’s monthly account submission) as the ex-buyer stalls and eventually makes himself judgement proof in the end.

It’s rareley about being legally correct and never about getting a judgement but ALWAYS about being able to collect on the judgement.

Poor D is going to bleed cash for years and still end up with an empty judgement.

#154 joblo on 05.12.17 at 10:28 am

Just wanna give a big shout out to all levels of Government, Bank of Canada, Financial institutions and all the greedy, foolish greaterfools.

High consumer debt, interprovincial trade barriers, increasing taxes, divisive populace, easy money policy, idiot politico’s blah blah……

After 150 years the country is a FAIL!

#155 TurnerNation on 05.12.17 at 10:31 am

This is it imo. Our Big Short.
The banks. Home Crapital. Genworthless.

#156 Mortgage Fraud on 05.12.17 at 10:37 am

#117 rates vs capitaL

So, you still feeling good about HCG this morning? My my, look at it ‘soar’, as you so wonderfully put it.
————
“So to summarize – the feds try to cool the market; we have recessions and anemic growth; and explosion of personal debt; overbuilding of houses; rising interest rates; foreign buyers taxes; and all that happens is that prices continue to climb in the hottest markets for years…”
———————-
All of that doesn’t matter now. AGAIN, the one thing you did not mention: mortgage fraud. The last couple of years, speculators selling to speculators and innocent people getting caught between them. All due to mortgage fraud.

#157 Smoking Man on 05.12.17 at 10:46 am

Wonder what the herd is thinking.

https://trends.google.ca/trends/explore?q=Toronto%20real%20estate%20crash

#158 Mike in Edm on 05.12.17 at 10:49 am

Saw a new advertisement billboard in my ‘hood in north Edmonton for townhouses starting at $269k. That’s new. Most of the other ones I see are at $319k or higher.

The low rise condos near my house used to be advertising at $219k, now they’re at $189k…. And still have lots for sale after well over a year on the market now.

I’ve noticed lately new condos / buildings / developments have been popping up in what was once vacant empty lots / fields. I find it weird that all of a sudden now (well in the past year-ish) these land owners finally decided to sell and some sucker is building on the space now, especially when lots of the buildings (commercial mostly) that were built and completed right around the crash a few years ago are still empty. Why even bother building more when you have so much vacant space right now?

#159 James on 05.12.17 at 11:01 am

#58 Smoking Man on 05.11.17 at 9:20 pm

Hunter S Thomson.
He talks to me via the UCC, the prick gets real pissed off with my spelling, one day too much in school I’m thinking.
He’s not thinking it through in heaven, they must have good Either or mind fking shit up there, not realizing that his hero Hemingway could not spell worth a shit, no internet I guess.
But he told me to tell you. It was never about Republicans or Democrats why he hated Nixon.
He hated liars.
Hillary or Trump.
Deep down everyone knows who the liars are but your education or more over your indoctrination will cast that vote.
I claim to be the worlds biggest liar in the world.
I don’t lie after 9 pm.
Hunter S Thomson would be a proud deplorable. I dedicate my book that no one bought to my hero.
Smoking Mans Ghost.
Ph.D. in everything that matters.
……………………………………………………………………
You need to listen and learn Smoking Man . Hunter S Thompson also recognized what BS is in the political circle, he would definitely have words for the grand Dick head leading the free world today. The main problem in any democracy is that crowd-pleasers are generally brainless swine who can go out on a stage & whup their supporters into an orgiastic frenzy – then go back to the office & sell every one of the poor bastards down the tube for a nickel apiece. Probably the rarest form of life in American politics is the man who can turn on a crowd & still keep his head straight – assuming it was straight in the first place!

#160 James on 05.12.17 at 11:11 am

#151 Smoking Man on 05.12.17 at 10:14 am

Talk about being late to a party.
With the blue dots all over the map, this business plan is desend to failure.

http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/toronto-real-estate-is-about-to-go-on-the-block-621847723.html
…………………………………………………………………..
What do you care? You can pay off the mortgage, buy a new pickup, buy 1.5 litre bottles of JD now instead of mickeys, throw a few $$ at your crazy ass wife for her casino jaunts! Oh but I stand corrected you are a millionaire with bundles of $$$. Why did you sell again?
Long Branch will never be the same.

#161 For those about to flop... on 05.12.17 at 11:16 am

#152 Bears don’t know bull… on 05.11.17 at 6:14 pm
#13 #28 #112 #113 #130 #140… and Flop… and garth… and bears…

You see it because you believe it (15 years counting)… the rest won’t believe it until they see it.

////////////////////////////

You can troll me all you want but I’m gonna keep doing what I’m doing until I find no evidence of anyone in trouble or I am cleared to go back to work.

It has been documented on here that I started noticing trouble last fall around where I live in East Van and where I was working on luxury houses on the Westside.

I had surgery in late October and thought I would be off work for 3 to 4 months max but the surgery was more complicated than expected and so instead of talking about foreign money ,interest rates ,immigration and all the other stuff that a lot of people smarter than me concern themselves with I set out to study the market closely and see what was going on to the best of my ability.

I’ve openly admitted I’m not very good at what I do but it mainly takes time and a bit of ticker to try and help people busier than I am currently to see what’s going on with the softer side of the market.

There are certain people on here that I no longer write ,because no matter how much evidence I show it will never be good enough for them ,but I’m just an average guy and if I can help some people from feeling like they are being forced into making a mistake that they will regret for decades then I hope it goes a small way to repay the debt of being allowed to live in this country with my wife…

M42BC

#162 James on 05.12.17 at 11:24 am

#111 Vit on 05.12.17 at 1:00 am

—-In the last 24 hours the number of listings in the GTA-Golden Horeshoe increased by more than 3,200—-

What do you think does 3,200 home owners will do ones they sell their homes .?? Go and rent 600 sqft condo , no way . Most parents will not move their kids to another school . And the biggest problem with the condo no parking . The average family has 3-4 cars and most what you get with a condo is 1 parking spot . So all does sellers become a buyers and demand will pick up again . I would say give it till Oct- Nov market will fly up again since fundamentals that propelling this market did not changed .
Personally I was considering to sell in Feb. but with 3 cars and a dog no way to get a condo, even most homes have no dog policies despite $3000 rent.
………………………………………………………………….
Yes sir its the band wagon effect, my neighbour sold his place and got $$$$$$$, hell I’m listing to see if I cal get $$$$$$$$$$, but know-body has a long term plan after they sell. Plus all of the other expenses, relocating, schools, and the next place could be a shit hole worse than the last. No forward planning my friends!

#163 45north on 05.12.17 at 11:30 am

rates vs capital: So what exactly is going to stop this juggernaut that has not stopped it after 13 years?

credit exhaustion and rising interest rates

FEDERAL MEASURES TO COOL THE MARKET
the Bank of Canada has not raised interest rates however if the US Fed raises rates again on June 6 then Canadian rates will rise regardless

MOUNTING AND CRIPPLING PERSONAL DEBT
who can say at what point there cannot be more debt? Two parties: the banks and the borrowers. It’s like a mystical wall that somehow rises up in the group subconscious. It’s not there and then it’s there.

#164 45north on 05.12.17 at 11:35 am

Jane24: So when I say that there are sad human times coming I do know of what I speak. Families were ruined for a decade or more in the 1980’s crash. All through greed. If you have a house to sell now list low and stay lower than all the competition. Your only objective is to get out. Profit is secondary.

that got my attention

#165 RyYYZ on 05.12.17 at 11:45 am

I admit it, I’m just looking forward to the day when the stupid smug smiles are wiped off the faces of everyone who thinks they got rich (but haven’t, because they haven’t sold yet) because they got lucky buying early into a huge real estate bubble that no-one could have predicted would persist this long. And saying “I told you so” to everyone who’s tried to tell me why it’s different this time, this place, from every other place that’s had a huge RE bubble. It’s petty, I know, but will be satisfying. On the downside, I might get clobbered on my modest property, purchased in July, 2013.

#166 jess on 05.12.17 at 11:55 am

Why does President Trump keep repeating massive voter fraud?

cross check computer errors

Who is Kris Kobach?

…”We had Mark Swedlund, a database expert whose clients include eBay and American Express, look at the data from Georgia and Virginia, and he was shocked by Crosscheck’s “childish methodology.” He added, “God forbid your name is Garcia, of which there are 858,000 in the U.S., and your first name is Joseph or Jose. You’re probably suspected of voting in 27 states.”

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-gops-stealth-war-against-voters-w435890

=========

#167 raincouver on 05.12.17 at 12:27 pm

https://www.central1.com/sites/default/files/uploads/files/analysis_report/report_file/may%2017.pdf

“A steeper yield curve in Canada is foreseen
developing over the next two years partly from
U.S. spillover effects and from ongoing economic
growth generating higher underlying infl ation
and infl ation expectations. Higher commodity
prices and faster wage growth are key drivers in
this scenario. When the Bank has achieved rate
normalization, the next phase will be monetary
tightening and a fl atter yield curve.”

#168 Steven Patterson on 05.12.17 at 12:45 pm

How do you miss Moodys downgrading 6 Canadian Banks Story on Wednesday ???

HUGE news

You of all people should know that is how the US meltdown started to spiral.

I didn’t miss it. I ignored it. No comparison, and a non-event. — Garth

#169 TurnerNation on 05.12.17 at 1:10 pm

General Store could get a LCBO special permit and set up a marquee de shade – a beer garden – for Sat.

#170 soost on 05.12.17 at 1:17 pm

This just in from BETTERDWELLING:

“A typical market is simple, less supply and more demand equals higher prices. However, this isn’t a normal market. Overheated markets like Toronto are often said to be operating on greater fool theory. This is actually a technical term, for a not so technical process.”

What the? …. you might be on to something Gartho.

PS make sure you have enough free ice cream

#171 jess on 05.12.17 at 1:49 pm

While some brains are trying to draw parallels between Trump time vs Nixon…how many are familar with his FAP plan?
“Welfare Plan Passes House […] a Battle Won in Crusade for Reform,” was the headline of the New York Times on April 16, 1970. With 243 votes for and 155 against, President Nixon’s Family Assistance Plan (FAP) was approved by an overwhelming majority. ”

http://www.alternet.org/economy/how-richard-nixon-almost-gave-america-basic-income-and-why-we-should-do-it-now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIL_Y9g7Tg0

#172 Ole Doberman on 05.12.17 at 1:54 pm

#168 Steven Patterson on 05.12.17 at 12:45 pm

How do you miss Moodys downgrading 6 Canadian Banks Story on Wednesday ???

HUGE news

You of all people should know that is how the US meltdown started to spiral.

I didn’t miss it. I ignored it. No comparison, and a non-event. — Garth
——————————————————-
Consider yourself lucky Stevie, Gartho is obviously in a good mood and took it easy on you there.

#173 Hollywood Jack on 05.12.17 at 1:59 pm

Is Rowat or the other baller working this weekend?

Maybe they can do a piece on TSX performance and RE corrections – like how they correlate in Canada

Just a thought

#174 Stan Broock on 05.12.17 at 2:03 pm

Banks will be impacted by the housing bubble meltdown. In term of profits. So their stocks will fall.

So will retailers/telecoms/services.

Economy is on drugs due to the credit expansion and housing bubble. 80 % of economy is financial/housing./retailer/services

They will shrink in absolute and relative (inflation adjusted) and stock values.

Economy shrinking by 30-40 % in real terms is logical, most likely nominal decline will be 3-5% and the loonie will go further down 40 %.

It is pretty much a given.

Worse case with potential run on the banks bail ins could be legislated. Seems unlikely but not impossible.

My choice has been to move away from anything Canadian – stock market, loonie, only keeping some excellent food companies.

Now I prepare to short the banks, payout expected 3-5 times on investment committed.

#175 Mortgage Fraud on 05.12.17 at 2:05 pm

Gary Mauris of Dominion Lending trying to save face today on BNN, declaring that Home Capital is now honest and transparent. Yeah, okay, thanks Gary. Take careful note of all the players involved in this housing meltdown so we can go back and lay the blame correctly. Rats on a sinking ship, all of ’em.

Dominion Lending originates by far the most loans in Canada. The underwriting of many of those loans was done by Home Capital, at the pace of about 4000 per year. Home Capital is a SIGNIFICANT player in the industry. Yes, maybe the Big 6 will mostly be unscathed except for CIBC which has 40% of their loans Un-insured by CMHC. But we shall see how exposed the rest of the Big 6 are. Because banks are always honest and chock full of good people, right?

MCAP will take over the underwriting of the loans on the books of HCG, bought for cents on the dollar BTW. But these will be shown to be of poor quality/ high risk and even fraudulent by insider whistleblowers just as soon as home prices start to stall and liquidity dries up.

It has begun.

#176 Paul on 05.12.17 at 2:06 pm

#143 Flip! on 05.12.17 at 9:11 am

Wait, Does Garth talk to people in Belfountain on Saturdays? I would like to attend if that is a real thing.
——————————————————————–
Yes Garth actually talks to people !
Just not You. lol

#177 Eurovision on 05.12.17 at 2:19 pm

Yep, Home corrupt group now primed for free fall, last chance to high tail it.

#178 For those about to flop... on 05.12.17 at 2:22 pm

I will share this case study that I have seen a lot of in Richmond b.c

Purchased date and price of a condo.

March 2014 627k

Dec. 2014 650k

October 2015 673k

Dec 2016 712k

So as you can see by these numbers,even though it was flipped multiple times ,no real money was made with a couple only moving up in the 3.5 % range without adding in costs.

It passed through all these hands for less than 100k difference in a 3 year period .

The developers and realtors are the big winners…

M42BC

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBOQjRTQg==

#179 IHCTD9 on 05.12.17 at 2:26 pm

#142 crossbordershopper on 05.12.17 at 9:09 am

… i still dont know why immigrants come here,

_______

Some day all of them will ask that same question. As for now, many come, but many pack up and leave too – up to 40% leave after 10 years of fighting for a decent life in Canada.

Eventually, they will realize that they are nothing more than a tax base replacement. Old stock Canadians have failed to reproduce themselves in sufficient numbers, while Canadian born Millennials are heading for single / common law lives in huge numbers with next to no offspring. The gig is already up, it’s only a matter of how many (stupid) young immigrants can we attract now. Enough to keep the welfare state afloat? Enough to fund CPP, OAS, education and the health system? Enough to pay massive taxes to enrich the boated on ever swelling public servants? How many immigrants want to come here to be taxed to death?

The answer is not many. The results will be less of everything all Canadians have taken for granted – and higher taxation to go with it.

#180 neo on 05.12.17 at 2:42 pm

#111 Vit on 05.12.17 at 1:00 am
—-In the last 24 hours the number of listings in the GTA-Golden Horeshoe increased by more than 3,200—-

What do you think does 3,200 home owners will do ones they sell their homes .?? Go and rent 600 sqft condo , no way . Most parents will not move their kids to another school . And the biggest problem with the condo no parking . The average family has 3-4 cars and most what you get with a condo is 1 parking spot . So all does sellers become a buyers and demand will pick up again . I would say give it till Oct- Nov market will fly up again since fundamentals that propelling this market did not changed .
Personally I was considering to sell in Feb. but with 3 cars and a dog no way to get a condo, even most homes have no dog policies despite $3000 rent.

********************************************

Vit,

You are making the incorrect assumption these are all families with kids a dog and not what they most likely are which are speculators that own multiple properties (many vacant) trying to unload. They are interested in selling and harvesting gains not moving the wife and kids because they never lived there in the first place.

#181 april on 05.12.17 at 2:43 pm

#161- Good on you! Keep it up.

#182 AGuyInVancouver on 05.12.17 at 2:45 pm

#18 april # Why are we not seeing the same increase in listing in the Vancouver/Lowermainland area if the “party is over”?
_____________________________________

I’ve been wondering that too. Anybody have any theories? Is BC really The Best Place on Earth and nobody wants to leave?

#183 neo on 05.12.17 at 2:47 pm

Hmmmmmm…So Morneau announced today he isn’t ruling out a bailout for HGH. Thoughts Garth?

#184 maka on 05.12.17 at 2:53 pm

This week’s downgrade of our six biggies by rating agency Moody’s is a non-event. Yes, the banks have a huge exposure to real estate and, yup, Canadians are massively over-borrowed.
-Garth
The rating agencies’ role in inflating the bubble is well known. Less obvious is their role in accelerating the crash. Agencies have typically resisted changing their ratings on a frequent basis, so changes, when they occur, tend to be belated, widespread, and big. In the space of just a few months between late 2007 and mid-2008 (after the housing bubble burst), the agencies collectively downgraded an astonishing $1.9 trillion in mortgage-backed securities: some securities that had carried a AAA rating one day were downgraded to CCC the next. Because many institutional investors are prohibited from owning too many low-rated securities, these downgrades necessarily led to forced selling, magnifying the panic, and prevented other investors from swooping in and buying the distressed debt cheaply. In effect, the current system pushes many big investors to buy high and sell low.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/09/28/ratings-downgrade

#185 And this just In......... on 05.12.17 at 2:54 pm

#166 jess on 05.12.17 at 11:55 am

Why does President Trump keep repeating massive voter fraud?

cross check computer errors

Who is Kris Kobach?

…”We had Mark Swedlund, a database expert whose clients include eBay and American Express, look at the data from Georgia and Virginia, and he was shocked by Crosscheck’s “childish methodology.” He added, “God forbid your name is Garcia, of which there are 858,000 in the U.S., and your first name is Joseph or Jose. You’re probably suspected of voting in 27 states.”

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-gops-stealth-war-against-voters-w435890

=========
WASHINGTON — President Trump on Friday warned James B. Comey, the former F.B.I. director he fired this week, against leaking anything negative about the president and warned the news media that he may cancel all future White House briefings.

In a series of early-morning Twitter posts, Mr. Trump even seemed to suggest that there may be secret tapes of his conversations with Mr. Comey that could be used to counter the former F.B.I. director if necessary. It was not immediately clear whether he meant that literally or simply hoped to intimidate Mr. Comey into silence.

“James Comey better hope that there are no ‘tapes’ of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!” Mr. Trump wrote on Twitter. Mr. Trump appeared agitated over news reports on Friday that focused on contradictory accounts of his decision to fire Mr. Comey at the same time the F.B.I. is investigating ties between Mr. Trump’s associates and Russia.

WAS THAT A THREAT BY DONALD TRUMP? “James Comey better hope that there are no ‘tapes’ of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!”
WOW THIS GUY IS A DICTATOR!

#186 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.17 at 3:08 pm

@#161 Flopster
“I hope it goes a small way to repay the debt of being allowed to live in this country with my wife.”
******

No worries.
We appreciate the work.
You’ll eventually have to visit Nova Scotia to see the site of a where lot of New Zealands’ original settlers (Maori’s nothwithstanding) sailed from…..
Some sort of religious schism caused a bunch of Scotians to build a ship and sail half way round the world for “free land”

#187 Xbox Economist on 05.12.17 at 3:10 pm

#156 Mortgage Fraud

Home Capital lends on the basis of the quality of the collateral it holds against the mortgage. In many cases the LTV of their deals are significantly lower than those done by the big banks and backstopped by CMHC. This is even without factoring in price inflation. Remember that HCG has been around for a while. It didn’t just pop up as a subprime lender in the last few years.

That isn’t to say that mortgage fraud doesn’t exist or that it’s not an issue. Neither is the survival of HCG guaranteed. The housing market may well rollover in the next few months and take the subprime lenders with it.

However, if mortgage fraud is an issue for HCG than it’s a bigger issue for CMHC. As it stands, HCG’s loan book has value. Trying to say that what’s happening here mirrors what happened in the US is simply incorrect. The disappearing liquidity in the shadow mortgage market, and HCG’s role in it, is a far bigger concern which no one seems to be focused on. I mentioned this quite a few times, before HCG was even in trouble, when this blog was still talking about MICs.

#188 Mark on 05.12.17 at 3:48 pm

“The only thing that will be hit harder than the banks are REITs. Look at what is happening in Alberta. The next phase will see surprise REIT failures, then one of he big banks will require a bailout. “

No reason why any of the big 5 would require a bailout. They just need to keep increasing rates and spreads as applicable to CMHC insured subprime mortgages until such point that either all of the mortgages default (and are repaid by the CMHC), or the liquidity problems go away.

If HCG were sitting on a mountain of CMHC-insured subprime mortgages that they could merely adjust the rates on, or call (most Canadian mortgages have provisions which could be used by the banks to call most loans at their discretion), HCG would not be in the pickle of a mess that they are. But its quite obvious that they were doing a lot of quite marginal uninsured business.

#189 Pete on 05.12.17 at 3:50 pm

For those suckers who want to buy Home Capital thinking it is a bargain, Bank of America bought Countrywide Financial, the largest mortgage loan company in USA, in 2008 for $2.5 billion (Countrywide used to be worth over $20 billion and Bank of American thought they got a huge bargain). After 2008, Bank of America has lost $50 billion related with the Countrywide purchase. yes, you read that right. $50 billion.

read this article below:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/banking/article9151889.html

#190 Calgary Rip Off on 05.12.17 at 3:53 pm

I have watched these posts off and on since their inception I think, in 2008?

Calgary real estate seems almost immune to the trends. Rentals are more expensive now than when I was renting in NW in 2007-2011, and single houses have held steady if not gone up a little bit.

I am making over six figures. Combined my wife and I make around $150K/year. Much of this income goes to the mortgage. My student loan is finally paid. My family lives comfortably. However, it really is scary, the costs of living. I have compared Calgary with Houston, Texas, and the comparison is stark. In Houston housing is available that is affordable. Not so in Calgary. I cannot imagine how anyone can survive in Calgary with these costs.

Calgary is a very stressful place. Too expensive, traffic, and very cold winters.

A few coworkers have commented on how overpriced it all is. I am one of the lucky ones that has enough money to keep paying. That being said, the reality of all of it is terrifying.

#191 Mark on 05.12.17 at 4:01 pm

“rates vs capital: So what exactly is going to stop this juggernaut that has not stopped it after 13 years?”

Canadian RE, especially in Toronto/Vancouver, stopped appreciating when Finance Minister Flaherty, in Budget 2013, introduced severe measures to stop expansion of the CMHC, and to cap the amount of subprime loans it could insure at $600B.

Any alleged ‘appreciation’ since has just been an artifact of a shifting sales mix (mostly only higher-end properties and new, undepreciated units being transacted in these days), not appreciation on individual identical properties.

#192 Where's The Money Guido? on 05.12.17 at 4:13 pm

Re: #9 FBI troll on 05.11.17 at 6:36 pm
Interesting Job open to the public, why do you think this was posted ???

1. Manager (RE-06), Risk Measurement and Analytics Assessment Services
Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada
Toronto (Ontario)

Reason is the mgr. was hired by Coast Capital to oversee their transition from BC to federal institution and make sure they stay within the legal framework they will devise to circumvent those rules. So friggin obvious what they’re trying to do while also hiring ex BC Hydro lawyer to write those laws to rip off their members when they go public. How many liars loans have they written?

#193 Johnny Boy on 05.12.17 at 4:30 pm

Love that before and after shot of the little dogs Gath.
Clean and white yesterday and a regular dog today!

#194 Al on 05.12.17 at 4:36 pm

Some of the non-resident buyers are trying to get out from purchases made a few months ago that have yet to close. Question is how the sellers can go after the non-residents that walk away from deals.

#195 Braj on 05.12.17 at 4:51 pm

#161 For those about to flop… on 05.12.17 at 11:16 am
#152 Bears don’t know bull… on 05.11.17 at 6:14 pm
#13 #28 #112 #113 #130 #140… and Flop… and garth… and bears…

You see it because you believe it (15 years counting)… the rest won’t believe it until they see it.

////////////////////////////

You can troll me all you want but I’m gonna keep doing what I’m doing until I find no evidence of anyone in trouble or I am cleared to go back to work.

It has been documented on here that I started noticing trouble last fall around where I live in East Van and where I was working on luxury houses on the Westside.

I had surgery in late October and thought I would be off work for 3 to 4 months max but the surgery was more complicated than expected and so instead of talking about foreign money ,interest rates ,immigration and all the other stuff that a lot of people smarter than me concern themselves with I set out to study the market closely and see what was going on to the best of my ability.

I’ve openly admitted I’m not very good at what I do but it mainly takes time and a bit of ticker to try and help people busier than I am currently to see what’s going on with the softer side of the market.

There are certain people on here that I no longer write ,because no matter how much evidence I show it will never be good enough for them ,but I’m just an average guy and if I can help some people from feeling like they are being forced into making a mistake that they will regret for decades then I hope it goes a small way to repay the debt of being allowed to live in this country with my wife…

M42BC

You have the qualities of a good man. Blog dogs take note. Some of ya’ll are a special breed..

#196 Tony on 05.12.17 at 5:34 pm

Re: #174 Stan Broock on 05.12.17 at 2:03 pm

Wait for the OSC decision or announcement to do with Home Capital Group. You like the short sellers will be in for a rude awakening if you short the banks before the OSC decision in June.

#197 RE bulls in panic mode on 05.12.17 at 5:58 pm

Just reading the ignorant comments on this blog by Specuvestors and other RE blogs is enough evidence that the peak has passed.

Lots of greedy property holders looking for a greater fool out there.

Face it bulls, the gig is up. Liquidity is drying up and your own kind is rushing to the exits. The blood is on your own hands.

The RE bubble in Canada is NO different than any RE bubble has been anywhere else. It is 100% the same as in US, Ireland, Spain and everywhere else where easy money and easy zoning laws or development, land assembly and such greased the RE trains.

IT IS OVER – for now

But with a little luck the laws won’t change and you can restart the game in 10 years.

#198 Tony on 05.12.17 at 6:09 pm

Re: #148 Ole Doberman on 05.12.17 at 10:05 am

Calgary house prices are down 30 percent from the peak. Ask anyone who sold or is trying to sell but can’t.

#199 Freedom First on 05.12.17 at 6:17 pm

#99 Josh Simpson

Thank you Josh.

I now understand what humility is.

Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics

#200 Dave on 05.12.17 at 6:21 pm

@ #194

Non resident sales are collapsing here in Australia. Doesn’t change real estate agents trying to blab about how strong they are.

#201 Real Appreciation on 05.12.17 at 6:23 pm

191 Mark
“rates vs capital: So what exactly is going to stop this juggernaut that has not stopped it after 13 years?”

Canadian RE, especially in Toronto/Vancouver, stopped appreciating when Finance Minister Flaherty, in Budget 2013, introduced severe measures to stop expansion of the CMHC, and to cap the amount of subprime loans it could insure at $600B.

Any alleged ‘appreciation’ since has just been an artifact of a shifting sales mix (mostly only higher-end properties and new, undepreciated units being transacted in these days), not appreciation on individual identical properties.

———-

Well since prices – actual sale prices at all levels of the housing system – have appreciated greatly in Vancouver and TO since 2013, that CMHC cap sure ain’t working right?

Again, so what exactly is going to stop this juggernaut that has not stopped it after 13 years?

#202 Rich Young on 05.13.17 at 12:32 am

@ #190 CALGARY RIP OFF … so much to agree on. I live in a 2br rental with two daughters and my wife since 1995 … we pay $1100 per month. Rented this place for the unfinished basement to sell off our closed store inventory which is taking us many years on Kijiji and eBay. Combined we make 6 figures and our utility bill averages $350 a month! I moved out of my home in 1989 where I paid $215 a month utilitites included to share a 1 br apartment. How times have changed. Our first home, bought with 2x our income. Now, with 10% unemployment and rental sign everywhere we would have to pay 3x our income for the same place we rent for $1100 a month. With $100,000 down on a $350,000 2br we would shell out more per month and be out $100,000 … depressing.

Garth, you say homeowners in Calgary are going to be in a depressed state here? How about those not in the market hoping to own something and too scared to buy. I figure, if we buy back in, then the market will correct. My wife is so down on the situation. Down the street a home sold for just over $500,000 and it looks like they are spending $100,000+ renovation it. Are people here on glue?