Blah, blah

The following is a true confession from the trenches. It came to me Tuesday afternoon, about the same time three levels of government were meeting to discuss what the hell to do about GTA real estate. The property in question is a suburban townhouse an hour’s drive (in traffic) from the beating heart of the 416.

Last Thursday my agent put up here sign saying Coming Soon and the plan was to put it on MLS on Wednesday April 19th and have open houses over the weekend of 22nd/23rd. The next afternoon a neighbour came over and spoke to my daughter and said she was interested in the house for her sister. The neighbour and her husband came to see the house on Saturday, did a cursory walk through and asked to come back later in the day. Keep in mind I hadn’t had the cleaners in yet so the house was only presentable. They came back and spent all their time upstairs and then signed the papers! They hadn’t looked in the garage or set foot in the backyard and they bought without an agent of their own.

My agent told them we were going to list at $1,088,000 but were looking for $1.2, they offered $1.25 with a June close, no conditions, and a lease back for 3 months at $1,400/month plus my agent’s commission dropped to 3% because they didn’t have an agent.

I took the offer! I still can’t believe someone could spend that kind of money after barely looking at the place.

Yes, lots of deals are falling apart (Derek, from yesterday’s post, will attest to that), but the fact remains most people think urban real estate in southern Ontario or the Lower Mainland is riskless. All you need do is look at total household debt ($2 trillion) of which 65% is mortgages, to know Canadian society has made a huge gamble impossible to win – that real estate will not correct. Ever. And if it does, recovery will be swift.

But no asset class has entered a bubble and stayed there. Anywhere. Anytime. This frosty, confused nation will prove to be no exception. And the guy who sent me the note above – now a millionaire with subsidized rent – gets it. His $1,200,000 invested in a stable, sensible portfolio should turn out six grand a month. More than enough to rent a far better place to live, or maybe turn into $2 million in a decade. How can anyone not seriously consider feasting on the FOMO-addled greed and stupidity of the house-horny masses?

The latest developments support sellers, and spank buyers. CREA has announced a stunning 6.2% monthly increase in Toronto house prices. Yes, in a month – an annualized advance of 74% in March. In the latest quarter the price gain was the biggest since records were first scratched into the bark of birch trees on the banks of the Humber by ragged river people back in 1988. Said BMO chief economist Doug Porter: “This housing market needs a bucket of water thrown on it and soon.”

And it may be coming.

That statement Bill Morneau released after today’s House Horny Summit said this: (a) every 90 days three levels of government will meet to analyze the situation and “take collaborative action to address data gaps and support the proper functioning of the market”. (b) There will be no breaks for buyers “which would impact housing prices by boosting demand.” Sorry, kids. (c) The CRA will ship storm troopers into the GTA “to ensure compliance of the real estate sector with tax laws and will work with the Province of Ontario to obtain enhanced land registry data to help support tax compliance activities in the GTA.”

Yup. Not much there. Blah, blah, blah. But not much was expected from the feds to address a Toronto problem. Instead the major actions are anticipated in the provincial budget, including universal rent controls to kill off condo excess, and a speculation tax on non-residents. The mayor, for his part, continues to prattle on about a Vancouver-style Empty Houses Tax, one of the goofier notions of our time.

Well, I’m getting tired of writing this drivel about the Toronto housing market every day. I can only imagine your pain in reading it.

Tomorrow we’ll change the change. Nuclear war, maybe. That would be a relief.

194 comments ↓

#1 Carry on 04.18.17 at 6:14 pm

Can’t believe Poloz actually said he doesn’t think rate hikes would help.

“The Bank Of Canada Is Full Of S**T, Here’s How Interest Rates Impact Speculation”

https://betterdwelling.com/the-bank-of-canada-is-full-of-st-heres-how-interest-rates-impact-speculation/

#2 The Greater Cauliflower on 04.18.17 at 6:15 pm

This has got to be the FUNNIEST blog I have read in a while.

Excerpt: “Why I Don’t Mind Losing Money on Saskatoon Property”

http://riverbenddevelopments.com/saskatoon-condo-prices-dont-mind-losing-money-rental-property/

#3 NoName on 04.18.17 at 6:15 pm

If you wondered why smokey wasn’t posting for past little while, it wasn’t ip…

“Court of Appeal for Ontario wrote of a criminal case in which jurors staged what was described as a “small mutiny” — demanding to drink.”

http://bit.ly/2oSWpb7

#4 crdt on 04.18.17 at 6:19 pm

Here in BC no one believes real estate is capable of going down, recency bias, and the realtor propaganda is working better then expected.

#5 prairie person on 04.18.17 at 6:20 pm

Stockhouse @ the Bell: “Some economists” consider Toronto home prices a bubble

#6 Porsche on 04.18.17 at 6:23 pm

Good idea… let’s talk WAR.

I can’t wait to see Trump show some more muscle

#7 Al on 04.18.17 at 6:25 pm

So the RE agent made $30,000 for drafting an Agreement of Purchase & Sale. S/he made the same as a heart surgeon doing a triple bypass.

#8 ole Doberman on 04.18.17 at 6:26 pm

Gartho if we’re switching gears can we beat Calgary to death next?

The rental mkt continues to be flooded – are these speculators who couldnt flip? What happens to these guys when rates rise?

#9 TortyPapa on 04.18.17 at 6:27 pm

There are so many ‘For Sale’ signs here in Vancouver and lower mainland…. by so many I mean average 1-2 per block. Not a lot of ‘Sold’ stickers though.

People are hyped up on condos right now here… NDP wants office and the people might give it to them. I’m not sure if it’s the RIGHT thing… but it might be the only option.

#10 Wrk.dover on 04.18.17 at 6:32 pm

Crunching paper today to nail down dates and book next winters Caribbean trips…up 50% in price in one year. Has GTA FOMO spread that far?

Two trips for trips for the price of three.

#11 Mr Schadenfreude on 04.18.17 at 6:36 pm

Annualized advance of 74%. That is pretty nuts.
When reading other blogs or comments people often say that if you leave toronto or vancouver that reasonable prices can be found. Alberta, sask, manitoba, rural bc are all cheaper but still way too expensive. Every shit hole town in Canada is having its own mini bubble.

#12 Andrewski on 04.18.17 at 6:42 pm

Fomo, Yolo, etc. Hilarious, yet sad that there are soooooo many fiscally retarded people!

#13 Bob on 04.18.17 at 6:43 pm

Canadian Real estate, the only bubble in the history of the world that never pops.

#14 traderJim on 04.18.17 at 6:56 pm

Looks like the pols are even more reluctant to try and burst the bubble than I thought.

Party’s back on (Garth)!

I just heard Derek’s buyer came back again, now he’s afraid he won’t get the house and he’s offering a case of champagne to make sure Derek doesn’t renege.

#15 side show bob on 04.18.17 at 6:59 pm

The weather will be nice tomorrow. Going to pull out a 1998 Trinidad Fundador to smoke in the back yard while sipping some aged rum.

Garth, unless that idiot of a central banker raises rates, nothing is going to happen. The Bank rate in Canada should already be at 2pct, not half. It’s a joke. There is no emergency, no recession or depression or deflation..

So, what’s the reason?

#16 Nonplused on 04.18.17 at 7:00 pm

No worries Garth I think we have covered nuclear war pretty good already here in the comments section.

#17 traderJim on 04.18.17 at 7:04 pm

#2 Great Cauliflower

What is that? Is it satire? A joke? Serious?

I’d say it was just pure satire but seems like it is on a legit Developer’s website?

WTF?

#18 Lee on 04.18.17 at 7:05 pm

#7 Al,

Actually, she made about ten times what a surgeon makes for a bypass surgery.

#19 Brian Ripley on 04.18.17 at 7:05 pm

All you need do is look at total household debt ($2 trillion) of which 65% is mortgages, to know Canadian society has made a huge gamble impossible to win – that real estate will not correct. Garth

I have my Household Debt chart updated now with latest GDP, Net Trade and FDI-FDO plot overlays.

1) The widening spread between total household debt and household mortgages means we are borrowing even more to maintain lifestyle.

2) Foreign Direct Investment OUT higher than IN over the last 19 years means Canadian companies are investing outside of Canada to get a better return on Capital and Labour. For every $1 of investment coming in to Canada, $1.31 leaves (full year 2015 data)

3) The negative Balance of Trade (25 negative prints out of the last 34 or 74% of the time) since the crash of 2008 means that OUR debt obligations provide more stimulus to offshore than onshore producers.

I listened to the Trumpster threaten Canada’s dairy farmers today… this will not be good for capital flow into Canada.

#20 Thrown under the bus on 04.18.17 at 7:07 pm

“Based on the evidence, government housing policy appears to be as follows: keep prices high at all costs, enslaving new buyers with obscene levels of debt for the benefit of banks and existing landowners. In a nutshell, this is called intergenerational taxation.

This is a social form of taxation in which there is a significant transfer of wealth from one generation of society to another. In Australia’s economic model, as house prices continue to soar, young homebuyers are forced to take on huge debts to acquire a home that turns to capital for the older seller of the home”

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/17/australias-housing-market-and-the-great-intergenerational-tax-rort?CMP=share_btn_fb

#21 Smoking Man on 04.18.17 at 7:09 pm

A leading indicator will be to watch for listings to explode in secondary markets like niagara or London. When this happens it will start to head back to the core.

I still feel another 300k + in the average price before the pull back.

6.2% month over month. That’s insane.

Rather than ww3 for tomorrow. Let’s have a serious discussion on UFOS and Aliens. I mean you saw one.

#22 Entrepreneur on 04.18.17 at 7:20 pm

Apparently BM discussion group have to collect data to make the correct decision (P&P).

It is too bad this thinking was not in play when Vancouver started to go beyond middle class expectation of owing a home. Who needs middle class; I want a million, two.

I thought it was a three day rule to withdraw from a contract but it is 24 hours as mentioned by a blogger from yesterday, “Free Advice Legal.”

Now I heard that CRA are going after house flippers treating that as a business. CRA can go back seven years of your business transactions. Wonder if they will go back seven years.

Bubble, what bubble, I want to be a millionaire and not do anything to the house, just flip it and I am rich, rich. OMG, where were our leaders when the middle class needed support?

#23 BobC on 04.18.17 at 7:23 pm

When the US housing went bust it hurt the world economy. When Canada housing goes bust, being such a large trading partner of the US, will it bring us down in any way?

#24 Timmy on 04.18.17 at 7:23 pm

“take collaborative action…” Another words they won’t do anything, just like what they have not done up until now. What an incompetent clown.

#25 The Greater Cauliflower on 04.18.17 at 7:29 pm

#17 traderJim on 04.18.17 at 7:04 pm

No one was more surprised and amused at reading it than me !

I was quite giddy at the sheer foolishness of it all.
Just shows you that the madness & the mania extends across the prairies as well

#26 Vit on 04.18.17 at 7:35 pm

Like I predicted no changes for the realestate market. The lust 2 weeks were the best time to buy this year . After budget released investors will realize that nothing happening and pull inventory out to gain another 20% next year .
From CBC.ca “Short-term, we’ve agreed to refrain from introducing new measures for buyers which would impact housing prices in the GTA by boosting demand,” said Morneau.

Morneau’s provincial counterpart Charles Sousa said his government would announce “a suite of measures designed to increase supply and address demand” in its upcoming budget, to be unveiled on Thursday, April 27.

#27 NoName on 04.18.17 at 7:40 pm

Sorry dogs wrong link, up… :)

http://bit.ly/2oLiarh

#28 Vit on 04.18.17 at 7:43 pm

—– His $1,200,000 invested in a stable, sensible portfolio should turn out six grand a month.

You did not mention that he has to pay a tax on 6k income
so 6 K suddenly become a 4 K .

Less. And paying tax is such a good reason to not receive $6,000 a month. Funny. — Garth

#29 Rick Fast on 04.18.17 at 7:44 pm

Garth! Don’t get tired of talking about the peak of the GTA market!! This is the event you have been writing about for many years and now it has (almost) finally come. Savor the climax, describe it with passion, as any great novel would do.

#30 Ret on 04.18.17 at 7:45 pm

#22
“Now I heard that CRA are going after house flippers…”

I’ll believe that when I see it. It sounds like the property registry offices in Ontario aren’t up to much with respect to technology to actually get a prosecution anyway.

How many of the re-assignments/flips were even recorded? Many RE agents and friends and contractors for RE agents were big time flippers and renovators so what really was on public records.

Bottom line? No politician really wants the RE party to end by actually doing something.

#31 rainclouds on 04.18.17 at 7:45 pm

CRA going back 9 yrs to recoup GST owing

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-real-estate-developer-fined-300000-for-tax-evasion

Gonna be a lot of these announcements while the government tries to do what they should have been doing all along.

#32 BlogDog123 on 04.18.17 at 7:49 pm

Louuuu!!!
Yes, Lou the guy who talked real estate during our luchtime walk. That talk about selling your house and retiring years early and with tax free cash…

Sell !! Sell !! Sell !!

#33 meslippery on 04.18.17 at 7:51 pm

they offered $1.25 with a June close, no conditions, and a lease back for 3 months at $1,400/month plus my agent’s commission dropped to 3% because they didn’t have an agent.
——–

$1.25 million @3% =$32 640.00 for a weeks work
add that to the high cost of home ownership.
Double if 2 agents involved.

#34 MF on 04.18.17 at 7:51 pm

#145 Damifino on 04.18.17 at 10:50 am

Lol just like we thought, lots of talk and nothing else. I believe the provincial measures will amount to nothing as well.

#173 TurnerNation on 04.18.17 at 2:57 pm

Haha thanks man. It’s actually nice. Don’t know if I have the right bada%! attitude, or even if I am from the right planet for schlong branch though!

MF

#35 Fred on 04.18.17 at 7:51 pm

Wish Poloz would grow a pair and do the right thing but then again, as long as he sees his shadow, nothing will happen. All he is doing is adding fuel to the fire by sitting and hiding. Weak BoC Governor.

#36 Vit on 04.18.17 at 7:53 pm

London home prices are up more than 20% , now what ????

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/torontos-red-hot-housing-market-has-spread-bidding-wars-as-far-as-london-ontario

#37 Dobermanduke on 04.18.17 at 7:53 pm

I agree Garth, let’s give overpriced shacks a rest for a day or 2. What about alternative investment ideas, stuff not in your typical balanced portfolio?

#38 conan on 04.18.17 at 7:55 pm

Wisconsin, lets talk about that State. Some cheesy chit happening in the uncool part of the Great Lakes. Donald is there, and he is not talking about N Korea.

#39 Lee on 04.18.17 at 7:58 pm

#21 Smoking Man,

$300000 is only 20 percent on the average SFH in Toronto. That’ll happen by end of June at this pace. This thing has at least all of 2018 to run. It’ll pop at $2500000 for a SFH in Toronto. There are streets in North York right now you can’t buy under $2M. Someone who gets in now will still make a wad. And those already in are giddy with joy. There are some greater fools out there but it ain’t real estate investors.

#40 Doug t on 04.18.17 at 8:05 pm

Nuclear winter would not help this market

RATM

#41 Robert on 04.18.17 at 8:07 pm

All levels of government, the banks, credit unions, mortgage brokers etc. are heavily dependent on the continuation of the bubble. End of story. There will be no correction, just a gradual devaluation of Canadian $$$ to keep the economy bumbling along. Foreign capital, money laundering and loose lending are 3 legs of the stool keeping this elephant aloft.

#42 The real Kip on 04.18.17 at 8:08 pm

Morneau has indicated the Feds will do little if anything and for anyone hoping the province will do much in the final year of the liberal mandate really is a great fool. Kathleen Wynne needs to go up in the polls and smashing the housing market is not going to get her there especially when they are taking in money by the billions from it.

Keep up the good work Kathleen, I’m voting for you!

#43 The Great Gazoo on 04.18.17 at 8:11 pm

#1 Carry,
Nice article.

I could hardly believe what Poloz said – what a complete idiot. To say that low interest rates – easy money has nothing to do with what is happening to Toronto prices is simply outrageous. When is term his up, so he can be replaced. I miss Mark Carney.

#44 Kenny on 04.18.17 at 8:13 pm

DELETED

#45 I'm stupid on 04.18.17 at 8:16 pm

Remember these words about balance!

The reason you don’t over extent yourself in any one asset class is because you can’t ever know how it will preform. It’s exactly like betting all your money on a coin toss. You might win but you might lose. If you continually keep betting all your money multiple times on that same coin toss you will always lose.

#46 Smoking Man on 04.18.17 at 8:19 pm

#3 NoName on 04.18.17 at 6:15 pm
If you wondered why smokey wasn’t posting for past little while, it wasn’t ip…

“Court of Appeal for Ontario wrote of a criminal case in which jurors staged what was described as a “small mutiny” — demanding to drink.”

http://bit.ly/2oSWpb7
…..

Wrong link. But you were close.

#47 GFD on 04.18.17 at 8:20 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/panama-papers-canada-tax-haven-1.3950552

#48 GFD on 04.18.17 at 8:24 pm

As long as our government washes money and has it feed into the mortgage market, Panama North will will continue to rise 20% or more per month. Does the bmo news today not support the banks are loaded with cash to finance their prime mortgage business replacing the backing with the 10 year bond?

#49 GFD on 04.18.17 at 8:28 pm

No use having legislation to initiate policies for families to flourish and prosper, now the govs get what they want, control of the money supply and their doctrine of we know how to spend it better than the citizens of this country is now coming true. Bill 89 from Ontario, have u seen this totalitarian piece of work? Hitler is alive.

#50 A Yank in BC on 04.18.17 at 8:30 pm

I asked a total stranger in a shoe store today how he was doing (just making polite conversation), and his immediate answer was to start talking about real estate prices in the city in which he lives here on Vancouver Island. Incredible. Do Canadians think of anything else?

He never did tell me how he was doing.

#51 Randy on 04.18.17 at 8:32 pm

The Liberals have no `real`economic growth plans for Canada. All of their plans are meant to trash the Canadian Dollar.

#52 NS Guy on 04.18.17 at 8:41 pm

Justin the Boy Wonder, Morneau, Wynne, Tory, Poloz: feckless, ineffectual, out-of-touch speech-makers. Fire the lot.

Most of them have sold Canadians down the river, sat by and done little as the average home in any city is out of reach to the average worker. Sat by and done nothing as jobs are outsourced, sent over seas to 3rd world slave labour.

I am so sick of politicians who have lived their whole lives in a bubble of government paycheques and guaranteed incomes, never having to work in the private sector, make a profit, live within a budget, act frugally. Time for a revolution.

#53 Gena Sullivan on 04.18.17 at 8:45 pm

I never get tired of your “drivel of the GTA” market… please continue. I love reading it!

#54 NS Guy on 04.18.17 at 8:49 pm

The 33% spike in Toronto real estate prices coincides with BC imposing a foreign-buyers tax.

Therefore, foreign buyers are driving up prices.

Absolutely no evidence of that. The locals are just loco. — Garth

#55 Eric on 04.18.17 at 8:53 pm

Easy solution:
1- increase central interest rates to 5%
2- institute a public and mandatory database to track sales, prices, statistics

#56 not 1st on 04.18.17 at 8:55 pm

No way that guy is $1.2MM in the clear. He probably had a $700k mortgage on it.

None. — Garth

#57 Ìknow on 04.18.17 at 8:56 pm

Just chatting with a Realty company manager broker in Vancouver. He said anything under $2M are selling quickly in this airing time.
Will see what NDP may accomplish next.

#58 Smoking Man on 04.18.17 at 9:00 pm

When your down to 40 bucks in the bank. Credit cards maxed, helock maxed.. No job, no prospect. F-en linked in. The wife a slot addict. That goes mental when you change the pin number just for her reaction, fun.

You sell a boat that takes on god on Lake Ontario, your water bottle filled with vodka to fool the cops.

Your forced to sell Shlong Branch to keep the party going. Cause you are not supposed be here.

If you died right this second. When some schooled dip shit said you had six months to live 6 years ago.

Another SM fan.

Talk about a real book.

I’ll do it,

#59 soost on 04.18.17 at 9:02 pm

Foreigners are using property as an RMB hedge. They will gladly Hold.
You want real change on the foreigner front ?– open data-sharing and reciprocity with china.
But alas, that is just a small piece of the puzzle.

We have domestic speculators galore. We also have builders who directly sell to friends, family and colleagues before new housing stock hits the streets. This, more closely resembles scalping.

We have an industry of Realtors who can’t be trusted to self-regulate. FIX IT TODAY. This is not controversial.

And these impotent politicians. When all has been said and done more has been said than done. All I hear is double talk. They simply ensure they always reserve the right to have been correct.

Decide what is normatively correct and do it. A balancing act — an impossible tight rope walk — can not be achieved

I’m out

#60 QuebecCityOliver on 04.18.17 at 9:07 pm

I’m not convinced that you can get 6% return per month no matter how well invested.

The tax issue doesn’t bother me. Assuming it is from dividends then the tax rate is not such a big deal(maybe 4% is more realistic) – I am a big fan of the banks (for dividends not leaving your money with them or buying their products, obviously).

http://www.fool.ca/13-steps-to-financial-freedom/step-8-the-great-dividend-tax-advantage/

Oh, and the agent would have given half that money to the agency.

Nobody gets 6% a month. But a 6.5% annual return has been the seven-year average for a 60/40. — Garth

#61 Trumpocalypse2017 on 04.18.17 at 9:08 pm

“Tomorrow we’ll change the change. Nuclear war, maybe.”

Tomorrow is a good idea, Garth.

(Thursday may be too late.)

Prepare.

#62 Smoking Man on 04.18.17 at 9:09 pm

#45 Randy on 04.18.17 at 8:32 pm
The Liberals have no `real`economic growth plans for Canada. All of their plans are meant to trash the Canadian Dollar.

….

And they say I’m mental. It’s a good place

#63 NS Guy on 04.18.17 at 9:11 pm

Nova Scotia is one of the few remaining places in Canada where real estate is reasonable and affordable.

And it’s one of the most beautiful parts of Canada too. Fresh air, ocean nearby, lakes, rivers, forests, farms, hiking trails, fresh seafood, friendly people.

You can either get a bungalow in a soul-less GTA suburb for $1 million with a soul-crushing commute to your cubicle corporate prison, or you can buy a beautiful farm, large house next to the ocean for under $200k in Nova Scotia. Take your pick. Life is full of decisions.

#64 NS Guy on 04.18.17 at 9:23 pm

“Absolutely no evidence of that. The locals are just loco. — Garth”

There is a ton of evidence. It’s everywhere you look. I’ve seen it myself in my own experience. But I’m tired of arguing with you. Believe what you want. I’m not going to waste my time trying to convince you. I think most people on this blog would agree with me, and not you.

Let’s talk about the ETs, Roswell, Above Top Secret, The Pheonix Lights, Foo Fighters, Area 51, Groom Lake, Travis Walton, Benny and Barney Hill, Stephen Bassett, Steven Greer, Jim Marrs, Bob Lazar, the pyramids, crop circles, …

#65 NoHopeTown on 04.18.17 at 9:24 pm

Can we talk about real estate appraisers for a moment here? What use are they really? All they do is look at a few comparables in the neighbourhood from the last 60-90 days and determine a value based on that. No wonder prices have been able to fly to the moon based on speculation and insanity. When I bought my first house in Toronto in 2006 for $316,000 ($17,000 over asking) it was a detached, fully renovated (aka flipped) house. When the bank had it appraised by Genworth it was determined to only be worth $302,000 so I had to pony up the extra to make up the difference. Fast forward 11 years and that house is now worth $1 million dollars easily in this market. How did we get here!? Certainly not based on any sound process that actually takes into account the true value of a house. Appraisals are useless yet still relied on heavily by the banks as some sort of validation for handing out $800,000 mortgages. 11 short years ago that same house wasn’t worth risking any more than $302k but now magically it is worth an $800-900k risk for the bank? It’s all so messed up.

Why aren’t there hundreds or thousands of stories of people getting royally screwed on appraisals? Deals falling through based on really low appraisals after an offer with no financing condition was made? I bet Derek’s situation is a direct cause of a bad appraisal and the poor buyers have been hung out to dry by the bank making them pony up a few extra hundred grand that they don’t have. Perhaps the appraisal part should happen BEFORE any deals are made, tye asking price should maybe even be based on what the bank’s appraisal would be rather than some arbitrary number determined by a realtor? If the banks are running scared they only have themselves to blame. In fact I place more of the blame on the banks than the typical first time buyer or naive move up buyer – a bank should know better and they set people up to fail.

#66 Smoking Man on 04.18.17 at 9:24 pm

Mark, my late nephew has another uncle tonight l.

Even though marks dead . That newborn will know him well.

Family is all I’m saying.

#67 Northwind on 04.18.17 at 9:25 pm

#1 Carry, many people share your feeling. Is there a way to impeach Mr. Poloz? It is a national disgrace and laughable that such an irresponsible and ignorant person is the decision maker of this country’s monetary policy.

#68 Joe Schmoe on 04.18.17 at 9:26 pm

It is exhausting waiting for this bubble to pop.

I chuckle at Garth’s endurance on waiting for the ‘I told you so moment’.

Regardless of exact timing, RE has been a ticking time bomb…my money is quietly growing in a well managed diverse/conservative portfolio….

#69 Dr. Bob on 04.18.17 at 9:29 pm

You are going to talk about something other than housing Garth? I am in shock. How about, does the TSX fall when the bubble bursts, or the value of preferred shares to help balance a portfolio.

#70 Smoking Man on 04.18.17 at 9:33 pm

Got to say. I love the wife, inspite of over eating.

Casino or food?

I’m a writer

#71 TorontoSux on 04.18.17 at 9:36 pm

#56 NS Guy

Sounds great but are there any jobs??

#72 TorontoSux on 04.18.17 at 9:37 pm

Sorry I meant #62 NS Guy….sounds great, but are there any jobs??

#73 NoName on 04.18.17 at 9:43 pm

#60 Trumpocalypse2017 on 04.18.17 at 9:08 pm

—-

you can play here and reassure yourself that what you are doing is right for you.

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

#74 Deplorable Communications on 04.18.17 at 9:47 pm

#69 Smoking Man on 04.18.17 at 9:33 pm

Got to say. I love the wife, inspite of over eating.

Casino or food?

I’m a writer
..

How’s life in the big apple going?

#75 Jess on 04.18.17 at 9:47 pm

Hi Garth,
At the other end of the country, in Victoria BC, we’re constantly running into expats from everywhere between Vancouver and Montreal. The feeding frenzy is scary, with houses going 100,000 over ask. It seems baby boomers with $$$$ from every conceivable place
plan on retiring here, which means most young locals haven’t got a hope of staying. The word is that Victoria is the most beautiful place with the best winters so we’re cooked! No one believes it will cool here until all Baby Boomers move into Senior Centers.

Didn’t it snow there this winter? — Garth

#76 Northwind on 04.18.17 at 9:52 pm

#57 NS Guy, I agree with you. Some people keep denying that foreigners are one of the root causes of rampant speculation in Canada’s real estate markets. What happened in Vancouver in the past one year or so is a good test and showed enough evidence. Unfortunately, social phenomena are not as clear as natural science, but open to different interpretations by different people with different motivations.

I came from China, so I know there are a lot of dirty money there, eager to move out that country at all cost. I have also lived here long enough to know that many Canadians do not realize how much the world has changed in the past 30 years, and how much damage foreign money can cause to this country. Canada’s real market can be turned up and down easily by the seemingly unlimited volume of dirty money trying to get out of China. There is no better places to do money laundering and parking money than Canada’s real estate market, because we have the most short-sighted politicians here in Canada, they are willing to sell this country out with their short term gain; and we also have the greedy, unchecked real estate special interest group, they want to create a market condition that they can benefit most from this shameless selling out, leaving the damage to this generation, and perhaps to many future generations as well. The sad thing is that it seems people here cannot stop the reckless economic attach to us, and to our children because the special interest groups have their on agenda.

#77 GFD on 04.18.17 at 9:54 pm

Back in the fall the foreign market traders no longer look at the cdn dollar as an oil currency. Our strength is now judged by the growth of foreign investment into Canada. Panama North!

#78 bigtowne on 04.18.17 at 10:01 pm

London is a town worth a peak should your nerves get stretched and overwrought from the Toronto vibe. London is the Ontario we knew and thought went missing around 1995.

President Trump speaks to Canada: Don’t have a cow!
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan is a Congressman out of Wisconsin so it’s a no-brainer the “supply management of the dairy and chicken trade” will be on the menu with the NAFTA file.

#79 this just in on 04.18.17 at 10:02 pm

Morneau is planning on buying 20 million laptops and handing them out to teenagers in India and China, “CRA deputies”
Each will be assigned one Canadian taxpayer to shakedown,
“CRA calling, your activities are suspicious-we have gps data from your cellular provider, there will be an audit, guaranteed; however, we can settle it now with a major credit card”

#80 Joe2.0 on 04.18.17 at 10:02 pm

DELETED

#81 Livin' Large on 04.18.17 at 10:15 pm

It really must be frustrating to write every day to give the uninformed the facts and reality only to watch them line up to be hogs to slaughter and just let emotion rule their actions.

I have railed for years to anyone who will listen about why they shouldn’t put a cent into an RRSP until their entire TFSA contribution room is used up. Still almost all that I get in return is that blank stare of a hamster.

A close friend is an accountant and corporate controller and even she argues with me that she gets the higher refund with an RRSP yet she doesn’t grasp that when she retires almost all her withdrawls will be taxed higher than when she deposited and unless the increased refund is plowed back then she’s guaranteed to be sucked dry by inflation and higher marginal rates.

I seem to have figured out what most of the anagrams mean but what is “fomo” and whom are “moisters”??

#82 april on 04.18.17 at 10:23 pm

# You’d believe anything>

#83 cramar on 04.18.17 at 10:24 pm

#35 Vit on 04.18.17 at 7:53 pm

London home prices are up more than 20% , now what ????

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/torontos-red-hot-housing-market-has-spread-bidding-wars-as-far-as-london-ontario

—–

Ha! Not just to London, but keep on going west for 2 hours and it has even spread to Windsor. Prices up 20.5%.

‘Crazy’ Windsor real estate market hottest in decades

“We’re a smaller version of Toronto,” said Kim Gazo, president of the Windsor-Essex County Association of realtors.

She even heard that a group of Toronto investors recently came down by bus to see if they could take advantage of the comparatively cheap Windsor-area housing market.

http://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/crazy-windsor-real-estate-market-hottest-in-decades

#84 TurnerNation on 04.18.17 at 10:25 pm

#49 GFD that’s right our elites unleash 101 new laws upon us, each year. We are not good enough. Our way of life is wrong and must be re-educated and redacted.


Hey Smoking man do you know the Bay St. barflies Rocco, Michael and Partrick? What a hoot met them.
Will (not) be me in 10 years time…

M41ON

#85 Mike on 04.18.17 at 10:34 pm

Sharing land registry information with CRA is a good start to audit flippers who claim principal residence exemption. What would be even better is for agreements of purchase and sale documents to require SIN # . This will provide better data to Feds as to who is flipping houses and auditing for tax evasion more traceable.

#86 45north on 04.18.17 at 10:39 pm

CREA has announced a stunning 6.2% monthly increase in Toronto house prices.

which is higher than the US when its bubble broke! Which means the Toronto market is going to crash. And I think harder than the US.

Utopia: I met a gal and her husband yesterday who just arrived in Saskatoon from the United States. They have come to Saskatchewan to work in construction and were attracted here by news of our continuing housing boom.

I asked her casually if things were really as bad in the States as we see in the news. “Worse” she said in a thick Southern drawl “you really have no idea”.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/03/31/grow-a-set/#comment-93218

#87 Fish on 04.18.17 at 10:41 pm

Well, gosh dogs let’s see what
happens in a week

#88 Vancouverless on 04.18.17 at 10:43 pm

Garth, for a new topic, how about the cost-benefit analysis of various types of dog toys?

#89 SWL1976 on 04.18.17 at 10:56 pm

Nuclear war is a possibility

Global dimming via chemtrails is a certainty.

Nice solution to global warming you arisitocartic pric’s

Let’s talk about that

#90 Victoria update on 04.18.17 at 11:24 pm

Whatever happened to the ‘income fundamentals’ or ‘slow-melt’ or ‘interest rates rising’ or ‘CMHC changes’ or ‘Over building condos in Toronto’, or….??

Seems like we were so wrong. What are we missing?

#91 Victoria update on 04.18.17 at 11:27 pm

#86 45north on 04.18.17 at 10:39 pm
CREA has announced a stunning 6.2% monthly increase in Toronto house prices.

—–

Explosion in 10 year visas and foreign students.

1,500,000 10 year visa holders in China alone. And each must be a millionaire to qualify. Trust me, i see the applications that are approved and denied.

They don’t approved non-millionaires because there is a fear they won’t return to back to China.

Toronto is all being field by temp migration and foreign money.

#92 $1,200,000 on 04.18.17 at 11:40 pm

To earn him $6000 a month? That’s asumming 6% return – very realistic . But , are you selling capital to give him his $6,000 a month during a down market ? Or is this all yield from the portfolio ?

6% yield from a portfolio ? How ?

#93 JustMe on 04.18.17 at 11:44 pm

#85 Mike on 04.18.17 at 10:34 pm

This bulletin went out with new requirements for lawyers to submit information for Land Transfer Tax. http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/tax/ltt/prescribedinfo.html

#94 DON on 04.19.17 at 12:20 am

So the three amigo’s met today and pretty much nothing happened most likely Tory will take the heat for the other two levels of gov…no doubt Tory will be rewarded.

The Feds could stop using taxpayers money to back insane mortgages. This is getting funnier by the day…educmacated people running around without data trying to solve a problem they don’t necessarily see, but must been seen as acting. (Yes Minister) The US had a nasty housing bubble ours will be an expensive hangover for most. I’ve always wondered how they were gonna fix the indebted wave of retirees, simply transferred the debt to the willing newbies (their own children).

But tomorrow’s subject is relevant with Trumpalogic at work. I take it Trump will take Putin and Xi to Disney Land so Mickey Mouse can break the news to them about bombing North Korea and setting off a global cluster f*ck. Trump has lived a full life. What the hell!

If the US attacks and NK survives and can retaliate with an unexpected arsenal the World is in Trouble.

A nation is being surrounded by warships…how would you feel? Let’s set some ground rules for tomorrow’s discussion. Both sides have questionable leadership and motives at the moment.

Why is North America worried? Don’t we have a missile defense system along with South Korea, Japan etc?

Why can only the US have nuclear strike capabilities?

Why can’t North Korea test missile and rocket capabilities?

Why haven’t we blown the world sky high to date?

Is an Aircraft carrier a sitting duck with the new advancements in technology?

How many subs does NK have? Or how many do we know about?

Is China or Russia afraid of North Korea?

Is Ivanka using Whitehouse resources to push her fashion deals?

#95 DON on 04.19.17 at 12:31 am

#75 Jess on 04.18.17 at 9:47 pm

Hi Garth,
At the other end of the country, in Victoria BC, we’re constantly running into expats from everywhere between Vancouver and Montreal. The feeding frenzy is scary, with houses going 100,000 over ask. It seems baby boomers with $$$$ from every conceivable place
plan on retiring here, which means most young locals haven’t got a hope of staying. The word is that Victoria is the most beautiful place with the best winters so we’re cooked! No one believes it will cool here until all Baby Boomers move into Senior Centers.

Didn’t it snow there this winter? — Garth
*****************************

Garth that wasn’t snow…it was just some unknown white matter falling from the sky or at least that is what my realtor told me.

#96 Spock on 04.19.17 at 12:37 am

If the buyer did not have an agent why is the seller happily paying 3% to the realtor. Pay max 2.5% for seller side if not negotiated lower. Why pay 0.5% more.

#97 Long Time Lurker on 04.19.17 at 12:37 am

I actually have time to write something now so let’s see what I remember.

#81 Livin’ Large

Fomo is “fear of missing out”

Moister is a Garthism –something like moist behind the ears.

Yolo is “you only live once”.


Andrew Woburn

Retail sales down plus store chains and mall closures in the U.S.

Some blame amazon.com, others say lack of disposable income. Since Amazon stock isn’t spiking, I say lack of disposable income.

Ex-Cowtown

Private loans do not increase the money supply so no money (currency) was created.

#23 BobC.

Canada’s population and economy are the size of California. Canadian trade to the U.S. is small compared to China. I don’t think there will a big effect on the U.S. unless Wall Street starts buying up bad Canadian mortgage securities. Even then our population is smaller.

I wonder what the Canadian Big Banks risk levels are at now if BMO is off-loading?

Three Amigos downgraded to Three Stooges. A spade’s a spade. Political hide-saving versus leadership capacity. They won’t get out unscathed: They were in office while the crisis developed.

Anyone want to talk about real estate?

#98 Fortune500 on 04.19.17 at 12:38 am

#11 Mr Schadenfreude

Agreed. People keep saying ‘Toronto’ isn’t Ontario and you should move. Well watching real estate in the rural parts of Ontario where my parents live (3 and a half hours away from T.O.) I am seeing mini bubbles too. And talking with people there, the sentiment is the same.

In small communities where no foreign buyers are buying, and where most Boomers would want to leave, not retire to, I am seeing properties that should be in the $250,000 range (based on local incomes) asking $450,000-500,000. Yes, this is nothing like Toronto, but be proportion it is the same. The families in these areas are not making anywhere near big-city salaries, yet the prices are going up way faster than incomes.

#99 jane23 on 04.19.17 at 12:42 am

Well spoke to the brother in law last night who works on the oil sands north of Edmonton. He says that some massive projects complete this year and then will be immediately mothballed. Many of the folk he works with have contacts finishing in 2107 and no idea where they will work next. Many intending to sell up in Alberta and go back ‘home’. So for Alberta RE the other shoe will be dropping soon. May be the answer for blood dogs who are wondering why Alberta RE has stayed up high for so long.

#100 Ronaldo on 04.19.17 at 12:47 am

#22 Entrepreneur on 04.18.17 at 7:20 pm

”Bubble, what bubble, I want to be a millionaire and not do anything to the house, just flip it and I am rich, rich. OMG, where were our leaders when the middle class needed support?”
——————————————————————
The problem with our leaders is that they too do not want to lose the equity that they have accumulated in their properties. Just as Christy Clarke stated some months ago when addressing the bubble in Vancouver so did our Federal Finance Minister today. How on earth can they possibly believe that these prices are justified is beyond me. How can they possibly expect housing to become affordable to the middle and lower class if there is no correction in prices. Boggles the mind.

#101 jay on 04.19.17 at 12:48 am

Warren Buffet hooking up with Chinese company Juwai to sell U.S real estate to Chinese. What does that tell you. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/17/buffetts-berkshire-chinese-property-portal-juwai-com-team-up.html

#102 Piet on 04.19.17 at 1:14 am

@#75 Jess
“The word is that Victoria is the most beautiful place with the best winters so we’re cooked!…”

“Didn’t it snow there this winter? — Garth”

It was a miserable winter in Victoria. With our nonexistent snow removal services, driving was a nightmare. For half of the year count yourself lucky to see the sun once in a fortnight. The spring so far has been bone chillingly cold and damp. Those of us who have been here long enough to know what the place is really like advise the hordes to stay away. Why burden yourself with the inconvenience of living on an island? Don’t listen to those new arrivals who send you photos of spring flowers in February. They’re just trying to mask with smugness their regret over having moved to such an expensive place.

#103 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 04.19.17 at 1:17 am

I remember it being just like this in 2007.

Guess the real question is; “How they going to unravel all the government meddling when today’s equivalent of 2008 comes along?”

#104 Ch on 04.19.17 at 1:25 am

Boo hoo. I’ve got all three levels of govt working to adress the problem. Vancouver had nothing… Nothing. Only a mayor who said you’re racists and provincial govt who laughed in the peoples faces…

Count your lucky stars you live in Toronto.

#105 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 04.19.17 at 1:29 am

#81 Livin’ Large on 04.18.17 at 10:15 pm

One of two things happens;

The “uninformed” blindly rush in and reap the rewards of not being so risk adverse

or

The “uninformed” fail miserably due to their ignorance and become the opportunity the informed have prepared for.

Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a successful rain dance.

#106 Bailing in BC on 04.19.17 at 1:34 am

I was just checking out foreign currency high interest saving accounts and came across this beauty http://www.hsbc.ca/1/2/personal/banking/accounts/foreign-currency-accounts/foreign-currency-rates
That’s right the HSBC Euro High Rate Savings Account pays the high rate of 0.00% – The bloody gall!

#107 NoName on 04.19.17 at 3:53 am

Facebook

Twelve years ago Thursday, Mark Zuckerberg founded Facebook with a simple dream: to have everyone spending as much time as possible clicking around on his website. Today, the social network site’s users are closing in on $3.5 trillion in squandered productivity.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/04/facebook-turns-12–trillions-in-time-wasted.html

#108 paulo on 04.19.17 at 4:17 am

One of the greatest problems here is the fact that local and provincial goverment agencies are addicted to and dependent on the windfall revenues they collect from real estate transactions,as they be.
on the federal side,keeping what where emergency interest rate cuts in response to the US housing crash is proving to be the devil in the details event.
its a adversarial situation , like hiring a lawyer in a divorce case. if the lawyer performs well and ends the case quickly,the lawyers billing of fee’s ends. there is no incentive. same equitation apply s to the current real estate boondoggle, city,and provincial governments are addicted to the revenues, on the federal side this idiot we have as a central banker is smoking? and has not got the rocks to do what is really required,being removing/ unwinding the emergency measures of artificially low interest rates that where put in place in 2009 to respond to the real estate collapse state side.

so my question is simple, will the powers that be have the “rocks” to do what has to be done,to stop this nonsense,even if it means possibly being voted out next time round? personally would rather be remembered as the person whom acted with integrity and fulfilled my duty to properly serve the electorate with honor,even if the medicine was tough.

#109 Another Autocrat on 04.19.17 at 6:18 am

Trump congratulates Erdogan on becoming an autocrat.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/17/us/politics/trump-erdogan-turkey-referendum.html?_r=0

What word best describes Trump’s presidency: plutocracy, kleptocracy, or idiocracy? Something else?

#110 Smoking Man on 04.19.17 at 6:45 am

I’m in the dog house now, Huge!

Wife had a shit load of jewelry in a recycle blue bag. Why she stash it there is anyone’s guess.

Cleaning up the house for a showings this weekend .

We search the blue bin for gold. We only found 17 empty JD mickys.

I’m in so much shit now after I took out a bible, placed my right hand on it and said. I’m a non drinker.

Going to miss Shlong Branch.

#111 Smoking Man on 04.19.17 at 7:13 am

#61 Trumpocalypse2017 on 04.18.17 at 9:08 pm
“Tomorrow we’ll change the change. Nuclear war, maybe.”

Tomorrow is a good idea, Garth.

(Thursday may be too late.)

Prepare.
……

My son just started up a business to treat people with mental and drug abuse disorders. I’ll get you a discount if you call in the next 5 mintues.

What a glorious hang over I’m experiencing right now.

#112 Livin Large on 04.19.17 at 7:51 am

#97 Thanks, the “moister” I sort of thought it might be related to moist behind the ears in some way way but the others just baffled me.

#113 Trumpocalypse2017 on 04.19.17 at 8:14 am

BREAKING NEWS!

Fortunately, the earth will NOT be destroyed today.

Just barely.

http://www.nbcnews.com/mach/space/huge-asteroid-give-earth-very-close-shave-april-19-n747566

Three more are on the way this next year that we should be concerned about, however.

Will one hit Mar-a-lago?

We can only hope…..

#114 Ummmm on 04.19.17 at 8:19 am

You all don’t actually believe that REAL measures will be taken to decrease prices do you?????

From what I gathered the 3 amigos want prices to REMAIN STEADY not decrease. They will be taking VERY small steps like a bunch of “scared pussy cats” over the course of 5 years just to ensure prices remain steady. This is why they’re meeting every 3 months.

The rest of the story….too little to late.

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.19.17 at 8:20 am

Hmmmm.
The first 100 days…
Another day another Trump slag
This time NAFTA and Canadian Dairy farmers.
One wonders when the wheels will truly come off and he starts spewing the anti Canadian rhetoric like the anti Mexican rhetoric.
The price of a “Wall” just doubled…..
How will US draft dodgers cope?
Any Canadian “deplorables” care to comment?

#116 Penny Henny on 04.19.17 at 8:24 am

I love this line from Morneau
-We think it’ll have an impact on reducing speculative behaviour because we’re saying that we’re serious,” said the federal minister.

He then went on to add
-We are double plus serious and you just wait. Don’t make me get triple serious cause you won’t like it. I promise!

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/04/18/sousa-set-to-unveil-10-measures-targeting-housing-affordability.html

#117 America First? on 04.19.17 at 8:31 am

“HALIFAX — A NAFTA review panel has unanimously ordered the U.S. Department of Commerce to reconsider its costly duties against Canadian mills that produce glossy paper.

The panel, comprised of three Americans and two Canadians, issued its memorandum opinion and order last week. Under the new ruling, the U.S. Department of Commerce must reconsider some aspects of the reasoning behind its initial findings and respond to the NAFTA decision by mid-summer.

The countervailing duties were imposed in November 2015 after a U.S. investigation into Canadian imports of supercalendered paper, which is mainly used in magazines, catalogues, corporate brochures and advertising inserts.”

http://thechronicleherald.ca/canada/1460686-nafta-panel-says-u.s.-must-reconsider-duties-against-canadian-paper-mills

Do you suppose that Trump will fire the three American panelists?

#118 Dean Murphie on 04.19.17 at 8:52 am

Once Poloz’s term is finished, do we expect him to take Carney’s Position atop the BOE?

#119 yorkville renter on 04.19.17 at 8:58 am

BIG jump of new listings in Toronto proper yesterday… all this media hype of “cashing in” seems to be resonating… 100 new condos listed yesterday and dozens upon dozens of homes.

Could be Spring, but I think Spring had already sprung.

#120 Penny Henny on 04.19.17 at 9:06 am

Just for fun if you are walking by a real estate office pop your head in the door and say “someone just smashed their car into the black Audi”.

#121 Johnny boy on 04.19.17 at 9:19 am

#110 Smoking Man on 04.19.17 at 6:45 am
I’m in the dog house now, Huge!
Wife had a shit load of jewelry in a recycle blue bag. Why she stash it there is anyone’s guess.
Cleaning up the house for a showings this weekend .
We search the blue bin for gold. We only found 17 empty JD mickys.
I’m in so much shit now after I took out a bible, placed my right hand on it and said. I’m a non drinker.
Going to miss Shlong Branch.
…………………………………………………………………
Now that was funny Smoking dude, that is worth reading this morning. Pulled out my phone sitting on the train and read the news then thought I’ll see whats on GF. I have to ask why feigning brokenness when you’ve got a $1350 USD per week gig in Manhattan? When you’re there go to Katz’s Deli on the corner of Ludow & East Houston. The best, and I mean the best pastrami and corned beef in the world.

#122 Bob But Not Doug on 04.19.17 at 9:43 am

Oh yeah, that Toronto real estate correction…any day now! Month? Year? Decade…?

#123 Farsyd on 04.19.17 at 9:47 am

Ideally government reform includes realtor and MLS transparency on sale prices and listing times and other market oriented solutions.

#124 Penny Henny on 04.19.17 at 9:59 am

#110 Smoking Man on 04.19.17 at 6:45 am
I’m in the dog house now, Huge!

Wife had a shit load of jewelry in a recycle blue bag. Why she stash it there is anyone’s guess.

Cleaning up the house for a showings this weekend .

We search the blue bin for gold. We only found 17 empty JD mickys.

I’m in so much shit now after I took out a bible, placed my right hand on it and said. I’m a non drinker.

Going to miss Shlong Branch.

////////////////////////////////

Hey Smokie, nice story but why isn’t the house on MLS?

You wouldn’t be lying would you?

#125 Deplorable Communications on 04.19.17 at 10:01 am

#110 Smoking Man on 04.19.17 at 6:45 am

I’m in the dog house now, Huge!

Wife had a shit load of jewelry in a recycle blue bag. Why she stash it there is anyone’s guess.

Cleaning up the house for a showings this weekend .

We search the blue bin for gold. We only found 17 empty JD mickys.

I’m in so much shit now after I took out a bible, placed my right hand on it and said. I’m a non drinker.

Going to miss Shlong Branch.
..

so where you going?
ecuador, the muskoa cottage or new york?

#126 traderJim on 04.19.17 at 10:19 am

#20 Thrown under the bus

I sort of agree with you about Government imposing a ‘tax’ on younger generations.

I wish more young people would see that governments’ inflationary (debasing/devaluing the value of money) policies are very harmful to almost everyone, especially the young and people on fixed incomes (seniors).

The beneficiaries are those who are in debt, especially those massively in debt, as the very rich usually are (they use leverage and have huge assets and huge liabilities, which is how to get rich in an inflationary world).

And of course, governments being wildly in debt also explains the policy bias towards inflation.

Young people might figure this out, but University profs all teach that government spending is ‘moral’ and debt doesn’t matter.

Reality teaches otherwise.

#127 Centre Wing on 04.19.17 at 10:20 am

Smoking Man is on a real bender today! Love that guy.

#128 Tudval on 04.19.17 at 10:22 am

Looks like Joe Oliver will not be too lucky with his attempt at real estate speculation. Like many (some bloggers even) who sold and now pleading with the government to crush the market with new taxes, so they can buy back cheaper.

#129 Angela on 04.19.17 at 10:37 am

Could you talk about the mortgage backed securities that…I want to say BMO is offering? 95% is triple A rated. Are MBSs ever okay?

#130 Ronaldo on 04.19.17 at 10:46 am

According to Morneau:

“We’re concerned that the price increases, in particular in the GTA, are putting the dream of owning a home out of reach of middle-class families,” he said. “At the same time, we know that those who own their homes are concerned that they maintain the value of those homes.”
————————————————————–
Blah, blah is right. What he is actually saying is, ‘We realize that owning a home is currently out of reach for the average person but we don’t want to do anything that will cause the current value of our own homes to decline’. Just like Christy Clark. They’ve had plenty of time to do something, just don’t have the guts.

#131 George on 04.19.17 at 10:59 am

Well I’ve been following this blog for more than 10 years now and that’s what I think.
1. Since our banks are guaranteed by the Government they can hand out cheap money absolutely irresponsibly (taxpayers will pick up the tab anyway)
2. There won’t be any correction anytime soon (houses in Toronto will hit 3mil by the end of this year if not more)
3.Government will stop at nothing to continue this housing frenzy (E.g. allow more immigrants, implement 0% mortgages or even will pay people to borrow money, confiscate cash from savers by cashless society etc.) since 40% of BC GDP in RE and cap and trade is killing Ontatio economy RE will stay as a major source of budget income.
4. Canada will become poor country living in multimillion dollar houses totally indebted since close to 100% of family income will go towards mortgage payment.
5. Ultimately it will crash and ta-da! new Argentina is born…

#132 RyYYz on 04.19.17 at 11:02 am

#98 Fortune500 on 04.19.17 at 12:38 am

Yes, it has spread. Certainly as far as Hamilton (which isn’t really that far from Toronto, as the crow flies at least – can be quite a long trip if you’re in your car on the 403/QEW/Gardiner Expwy).

Anyway, I bought a modest townhouse in upper Stoney Creek (near where Hwy 20 turns east towards Niagara Falls) in 2003. Overpaid for it, of course, at $220k. Recently there was another unit for sale in my condo/townhouse development. Not an end unit like mine, and without the view of the pond behind like I have. But with a deck in the back yard. Interior appeared un-upgraded, like mine. Asking price was $320k, apparently it sold for $380k. Are these people nuts? I thought $220k was way too much, and I’ve agonized since buying whether I should re-sell and get out. I’d never pay $380k for one of these units. I’m seriously considering selling, which would put around $200k back in my pocket after settling the mortgage, and put me ahead by about $160k considering my down payment.

I don’t relish moving or having to find another place to live, or the whole hassle of finding a decent place to rent where I won’t have to move again in a year or two. But an extra $200k to invest for my retirement wouldn’t hurt at all. I know it’s not the $1mil (or more) that those who are cashing out in parts of Toronto or Vancouver are getting (I should have bought more house, much earlier), but it’s not insignificant (to me).

#133 Lee on 04.19.17 at 11:04 am

Dieter Helm of Oxford says he does not expect oil prices to ever recover. This has to eventually weigh down the TSX. Isn’t anyone worried about this? This isn’t Zero Hedge.

#134 AfterTheHouseSold on 04.19.17 at 11:07 am

#78 bigtowne
” … “supply management of the dairy and chicken trade” will be on the menu with the NAFTA file.”

We just returned from the US. If the tv commercials are any indication, then the air industry will also be up for discussion. Canada, along with a few other countries, were called out for their subsidies to the industry. We have some explaining to do over Bombardier.

#135 George on 04.19.17 at 11:12 am

Yes and greater fools are those who didn’t buy back in 2000…and listened about housing crash…such an irony….

#136 Doug in London on 04.19.17 at 11:25 am

Garth;
Yes, feel free to change the topic. I’d be interested to read your take on nuclear war, how Donald Trump plans to shake up Canada’s dairy products sector, or other topics. However, at least once a week take time to remind those winning lottery ticket holders in the GTA to cash in their winning tickets before it’s too late.

#137 jess on 04.19.17 at 11:25 am

what if …
How many owners/property management companies would lie about the vacancies numbers to keep the lenders from getting nervous?

#138 Doug in London on 04.19.17 at 11:33 am

@Lee, post #132:
He may be right, but keep in mind that’s what the “experts” said in 1998 when oil went down to $11/barrel. Also keep in mind that there’s less oil in the ground oil now than back in 1998, and there are more consumers of oil in emerging market countries than in 1998. Meanwhile, here and in The States sales of larger SUVs are up. Say, what’s XEG-T trading at these days?

#139 Damifino on 04.19.17 at 11:35 am

#109 Another Autocrat

What word best describes Trump’s presidency: plutocracy, kleptocracy, or idiocracy? Something else?
———————————

Emergency.

#140 traderJim on 04.19.17 at 11:39 am

#129 Angela Re: MBS

Do yourself a big favour and read “The Big Short” or at least watch the movie.

The people issuing MBS’s pay the rating agencies to rate their bonds.

If you can’t see the blatant conflict of interest there then you might also believe CNN always tells the truth.

#141 traderJim on 04.19.17 at 11:43 am

#124 Petty Henny

In your spare time do you also troll JK Rowling for ‘lying’ in her Harry Potter books?

Just wondering.

#142 maxx on 04.19.17 at 11:47 am

….”every 90 days three levels of government will meet to analyze the situation and “take collaborative action to address data gaps and support the proper functioning of the market””

Every 90 days, eh………..so that the current spring market passes without the slightest wisp of interference?

And what of claiming “data gaps”. Given the context, including total time frame, a perfectly bull$hiteous expression has emerged.
This housing monstrosity bellows a sick economy and really stupid, tri-level government.
Unlike many agents in society, the mechanics of this mess are perfectly transparent. You’d have to have been completely anesthetized from circa early Alan Greenspan to today to credibly proclaim any “data gaps”.

The locus and nature of any “data gaps” appear to be situated entirely outside of this socioeconomic disaster. There are no “data gaps”, simply a pan-governmental “motivational gap”.

I really feel badly for the young. Decades-long, greedy boomer action on the economy, particularly in housing, has resulted in this elephantine generation having succeeded in cannibalizing its own children’s and grandchildren’s future. Wholesale.

Expect absolutely nothing more from this time-wasting, do-nothing bunch.

Realtards are running the show. This interfering army of sales rats has very nearly completely appropriated re and its tentacles of influence reach out far beyond to other industries and then into gubbmint. A really sick feedback loop.
The realtard industry has nevertheless, completely appropriated people’s minds.

#143 traderJim on 04.19.17 at 11:59 am

#113 Trumpocalypse

hahaha ok I get it now. Honestly, for a while I thought you were serious. I feel pretty dumb now, except there are people out there who think that every day is the end of the world.

Or maybe they are just hoping for Trumpocalypse so that they can trade a few cans of spam for a mansion in the abandoned remains of West Van or Forest Hill, and live out their last days shooting zombies with an AK47 from the window in the marble master bath.

#144 SilverSon on 04.19.17 at 12:00 pm

#18 Lee,

How pathetic is a society in which someone with no skills can take a 12-week course and be paid ten times the amount of someone that goes to school for 10+ years and saves lives. There was virtually no value provided by the Realtor in this example yet (s)he was paid over $30k. This country’s values are pretty messed up if brokering residential RE transactions pays so many orders of magnitudes higher than professions that actually contribute to society like saving lives, finding cures for diseases, improving the health of the planet, educating people about responsible investing (pathetic blog plug), etc. Very sad Canada … huge FAIL. Whether you own or rent a pile of bricks is so unimportant in the grand scheme of things yet so many people treat it as if it makes them immortal or a superhero or something.

In this market of reduced listings and multiple offers, most realtors are starving. — Garth

#145 Damifino on 04.19.17 at 12:01 pm

#127 Centre Wing

Smoking Man is on a real bender today! Love that guy.
——————————————

Yeah, I know what you mean. Staggering misfits are always welcome here. They add a splash of colour.

Here in YVR such folks have done wonders to spruce up the downtown area. What an antiseptic place Granville Street was until they began camping on the sidewalks.

#146 GTAHouseHunter on 04.19.17 at 12:05 pm

So the end result is ………………nothing concrete to blow out the gas.
At best I think the only thing that will happen is the Rent control.
No Speculation tax ………… No higher Rates

Just heard Ross Kay in the loopholes to avoid the Foreign Buyers Tax. Any comments on that.

Ross Kay on Howe Street:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VzGjqIQmss

#147 traderJim on 04.19.17 at 12:08 pm

#109 Autucrat

“What word best describes the Trump Presidency?”

Pragmatism.

Regressives, media and the ‘intellectuals’ used to rave over how a politician needs to be pragmatic, to compromise, to not be an extremist.

Now they have the epitome of pragmatism, and they hate it. Odd.

Personally, I’d much prefer an ideologue like Thatcher or Reagan (both not nearly true ideologues but closer to that than to pragmatism). You could say Sanders is a BIT of an ideologue too. Chavez and Maduro types qualify as well.

If Trump gives pragmatism a horrible reputation, then that alone will be a great achievement in my book.

But my bet is as soon as Trump’s 8 year term ends, the left will go back to thinking pragmatism is fabulous once again.

#148 Northwind on 04.19.17 at 12:21 pm

#144 SilverSon,

Agree with you.

Garth, I saw sold data for RE/MAX Realtran Realty Inc. for year 2016. 770 agents did residential transaction volume of $7 billion. Assume the agent fee is 2.5%, so the average commission per agent is over 227k. Meanwhile, the median annual Physician – Family Practice salary in Ontario, CA is $198,079, as of March 31, 2017. I saw too many talented engineers gave up their profession and become real estate agents. This country is sick and rotten.

20% of agents do 80% of the business. Averages are a useless measure in a commission-driven profession. — Garth

#149 traderJim on 04.19.17 at 12:24 pm

Asteroid missing earth by (literally) over a million miles (it’s 5 times farther away from earth than the moon) is “a very close shave” and “not something we should ignore”.

Ah hahahahaha.

Oh man that is too funny, except some morons think we should ‘do something about it’.

That’s even worse the the climate change alarmists.

#150 jess on 04.19.17 at 12:34 pm

“Buy-to-let is a British phrase referring to the purchase of a property specifically to let out, that is to rent it out. A buy to let mortgage is a mortgage specifically designed for this purpose.”

The fall in domestic and commercial property prices contributed to the Irish banking crisis. House prices in Dublin were at one point down 56% from peak and apartment prices down over 62%.[3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble
http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/prices/2013/rppi_jan2013.pdf

project cyprus ireland
Gretchen Friemann
April 13 2017 5:04 PM

Allied Irish Banks has entered exclusive negotiations with a buyer for a €300-€400 million portfolio of impaired buy-to-let mortgages known as Project Cyprus.

CORRECTED-BRIEF-Allied Irish to sell ‘Project Cypress’ portfolio to …
http://www.reuters.com/article/brief-aib-to-sell-project-cyprus-portfol-idUSFWN1HL0KK
6 days ago – Allied Irish Banks Plc: … Agreed to transfer portfolio of impaired buy-to-let loans, vast majority of which in deep long term arrears, to Goldman …

#151 Smoking Man on 04.19.17 at 12:43 pm

#124 Penny Henny on 04.19.17 at 9:59 am
#110 Smoking Man on 04.19.17 at 6:45 am
I’m in the dog house now, Huge!

Wife had a shit load of jewelry in a recycle blue bag. Why she stash it there is anyone’s guess.

Cleaning up the house for a showings this weekend .

We search the blue bin for gold. We only found 17 empty JD mickys.

I’m in so much shit now after I took out a bible, placed my right hand on it and said. I’m a non drinker.

Going to miss Shlong Branch.

////////////////////////////////

Hey Smokie, nice story but why isn’t the house on MLS?

You wouldn’t be lying would you?
…..

Me? Lie? Lol

It takes a few days. But might just pull the listing. We did so much work fixing it up. We like it. My problem is where do you go after you sell. Trump just burned TN visas and H1Bs

Seriously thinking about moving to St Maarten and buying a business.

Smokeys lounge. One can dream I guess.

I think I’m a week late to market. The libtards are going to toss a wrench in the transmission.

Think we missed the boat on real estate.

#152 Dups on 04.19.17 at 12:47 pm

A lot of GTA’rs selling and moving to London ON.

http://www.lfpress.com/2017/04/18/home-sales-londons-red-hot-housing-market-was-on-the-lips-of-many-area-realtors-at-their-annual-meeting-tuesday

#153 Trump's "Armada" on 04.19.17 at 12:53 pm

“When U.S. President Donald Trump boasted early last week that he had sent an ‘armada’ as a warning to North Korea, the aircraft carrier strike group he spoke of was still far from the Korean peninsula, and headed in the opposite direction.

“It was even farther away over the weekend, moving through the Sunda Strait and then into the Indian Ocean, as North Korea displayed what appeared to be new missiles at a parade and staged a failed missile test.” — Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-carrier-idUSKBN17L03J

So, is Trump still Commander in Chief? Or was he ever? Trump is both hilarious and scary. I don’t know whether to laugh or tense up.

#154 Vancouver Loser on 04.19.17 at 12:56 pm

I live in Vancouver .
The logical part of my brain knows that RE prices WILL decline at some point, maybe even crash a good 30% or more as predicted.
The thing I struggle with is : what good is a 30% decline if RE have already increased over 100% in recent years? A 30% decline is still NOWHERE near the affordable historical average price trend line.
The expanding bubble relies on there always being a “greater fool” around the corner willing to plop MORE cash into the money pit. In Vancouver, the problem is that I am surrounded on all sides by an endless supply of the GREATEST fools. Even if this bubble deflates by 30%, there will be a new supply of greater fools ready to blow it back up.
I have pretty much just come to terms with the fact that I simply will not be able to live here if I wish to own property.

If you can afford to buy and stomach the risk, buy. If you can’t afford what you want, rent it. How hard is that? — Garth

#155 Foreign Capital vs Rates on 04.19.17 at 12:57 pm

#98 Fortune500 on 04.19.17 at 12:38 am
#11 Mr Schadenfreude

Agreed. People keep saying ‘Toronto’ isn’t Ontario and you should move. Well watching real estate in the rural parts of Ontario where my parents live (3 and a half hours away from T.O.) I am seeing mini bubbles too. And talking with people there, the sentiment is the same.

In small communities where no foreign buyers are buying, and where most Boomers would want to leave, not retire to, I am seeing properties that should be in the $250,000 range (based on local incomes) asking $450,000-500,000. Yes, this is nothing like Toronto, but be proportion it is the same. The families in these areas are not making anywhere near big-city salaries, yet the prices are going up way faster than incomes.

——–

Exactly – I am seeing this in BC in the Interior and on Vancouver Island where all communities are up 20 or 30%, and where local incomes are no longer linked to local prices.

Its called the domino effect. A foreign buyer overpays for some place in Vancouver or TO and that person flees to cheaper surrounding communities to capitalize on their windfall profits. And prices go up where those people buy.

Those cashing out become the equivalent of foreign capital in surrounding communities because, hey, whats an extra 50k or 100k for a nice place when they just hundreds of thousands if not millions selling their crack shack in TO or Vancouver to a foreign buyers.

This destructive spread of capital is hitting all parts of provinces with the hot markets.

Prices are set on the margin. All it took was 8% of buyers in the US to cause a 32% decline in prices.

So why does everyone think the ‘5 %” (cough, cough, mythically low number) of foreign buyers do not impact prices here. Curbing the flow foreign capital will curb price increases.

With the supposed 3-4 rate hikes in a year, we will know in less than a year whether its low interest rates or foreign capital as the major driver of skyrocketing prices.

Everyone has cited low interest rates for the past nine years – we will see very soon. I think a lot of sideliners are going to be very disappointed when prices continue to rise with rising interest rates…

#156 n1tro on 04.19.17 at 1:15 pm

Just got out of the lawyer’s office this morning. Signed papers for a Mississauga bungalow that was bought for $600K in 2015 under my name which will be transferring hands to a greater fool for $760K come Friday. Some interesting notes:

1. House was bought under my name with cash from a group of speculators (my parents being one of them). 12 shares of $50K each was the buy in. At least one of the other speculator was a real estate agent.

2. House was renovated and rented out for 2 yrs since purchase.

3. Lawyer was saying that if you can repeat this eg. $170K gain every 2 years, I’d be set. I then had to say I think the ride is about to come to an end. Lawyer was commenting that he still has clients that are “foreign” (PC word for “Chinese”) that are still trying to get money out of the country and parking it in Canadian real estate. He also mentioned that some of his other clients are cashing out of the GTA and buying houses in KW, Guelph, Brantford area causing some prices to increase in those areas.

Bottom line which I will emphasize to the parents is that they made about $10K on $50K in 2 years. Hardly worth the risk involved.

#157 Yuus bin Haad on 04.19.17 at 1:22 pm

Nuclear war? How about Teletubbies?

#158 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.19.17 at 1:32 pm

#107 NoName on 04.19.17 at 3:53 am
Facebook

Twelve years ago Thursday, Mark Zuckerberg founded Facebook with a simple dream: to have everyone spending as much time as possible clicking around on his website. Today, the social network site’s users are closing in on $3.5 trillion in squandered productivity.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/04/facebook-turns-12–trillions-in-time-wasted.html
——————
Thanks for the post.
Plus the trillions that will have to be spent to rehabilitate the billions of social media addicts.

#159 dr. talc on 04.19.17 at 1:51 pm

Sousa, Tory and Morneau should take off the high heels
put on the construction boots and
act like men: start bulldozing instead of bullshitting
it’s time to build more subdivisions

#160 Victor V on 04.19.17 at 1:54 pm

Ontario to unveil plan tomorrow to cool Toronto’s hot housing market, official says

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/ontario-to-unveil-measures-to-tame-torontos-red-hot-home-and-rental-markets-within-days

#161 Fed-up on 04.19.17 at 1:58 pm

If you can afford to buy and stomach the risk, buy. If you can’t afford what you want, rent it. How hard is that? — Garth

See how easy that is? Just rent! Sooooo many bargain rentals to choose from with zero risk and guaranteed stability.

Sarcasm off.

If you can’t afford to buy, what choice? Coming here to bitch about Chinese dudes or realtors will accomplish squat. You can’t always get what you want… — Garth

#162 Marcus Street on 04.19.17 at 2:10 pm

Looks like QE4 is coming back to the table

https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2017/04/19/remember-quantative-easing-could-make-comeback-says-boston-fed-president/FjNnoluxXb2WPXHJzjgQxO/story.html

The US on the cusp of trouble?

#163 Lorne on 04.19.17 at 2:15 pm

144 SilverSon
#18 Lee,

How pathetic is a society in which someone with no skills can take a 12-week course and be paid ten times the amount of someone that goes to school for 10+ years and saves lives. There was virtually no value provided by the Realtor in this example yet (s)he was paid over $30k. This country’s values are pretty messed up if brokering residential RE transactions pays so many orders of magnitudes higher than professions that actually contribute to society like saving lives, finding cures for diseases, improving the health of the planet, educating people about responsible investing (pathetic blog plug), etc. Very sad Canada … huge FAIL. Whether you own or rent a pile of bricks is so unimportant in the grand scheme of things yet so many people treat it as if it makes them immortal or a superhero or something.
……
In this market of reduced listings and multiple offers, most realtors are starving. — Garth
……
Why are we afraid of restricting the number or real estate agents…..like we do with taxi cab drivers. That would allow commissions to be decreased to a reasonable level for the actual expertise and work required to sell a house, would allow house prices to decrease somewhat and would still allow those involved in the industry to make a reasonable salary….instead of some making out like bandits and many starving!

#164 Gasbag Boomer on 04.19.17 at 2:22 pm

Don’t fret Smokie, your equity will get you a palace in NK.

#165 traderJim on 04.19.17 at 2:27 pm

#156 n1tro

You illustrate something that a few people have pointed out on this blog before: Transaction costs in real estate are so ridiculously high that you have to have several hundred thousand in gains to even think about selling.

Don’t forget taxes on rental income and on gains (you wouldn’t cheat the government now would you?), interest costs (or opportunity costs, same thing), renovation costs, maintenance, landlord duties (collecting rent, accounting, arranging repairs, paying property taxes etc).

Then you have legal fees and LTT when you buy (substantial), RE commission and more legal fees when you sell.

Hard to win at that game.

I think speculators like n1tro mentions are going to be out of the picture very shortly.

That will just leave RE agents who buy 10 pre-built condos with the bare minimum dp and flip them just before possession date and the foreign folks trying to sneak money out of their home country at almost any price.

#166 Lee on 04.19.17 at 2:29 pm

#148 Northwind,

Keep in mind that along with residential sales most agents also do commercial sales, finding tenants for residential and commercial leases, and sales of small businesses. The sale of one commercial property for $5M would net an agent over $100,000 alone in commissions. You don’t just count the residential commissions.

#167 Ronaldo on 04.19.17 at 2:48 pm

#155 Foreign Capital vs Rates

”Everyone has cited low interest rates for the past nine years – we will see very soon. I think a lot of sideliners are going to be very disappointed when prices continue to rise with rising interest rates…”
—————————————————————
How soon we forget that when mortgages were 5+% prior to the GFC, banks were eagerly offering prime minus mortgages sometimes up to prime minus 2.

I recall vividly back in the heydays of 2008 when the mid 30’s Gen Xer’s were bragging about how low their mortgage rate was on that $800,000 teardown they bought in Vancouver. That was mostly the talk around the water cooler.

Back in January of 2010 I warned a couple of the bubble we were in and that they should sell and cash in their lottery ticket when that same house was assessed at $1.2 million. I was laughed at and told that prices would continue to go up because everyone wants to live in Vancouver and of course, the Chinese are going to push the prices higher because of the demand.

Well, in December, that same couple sold out for $1.8 million. Only problem, they bought back into the same market at a much higher level.

The thing is, in all that time because of the prime minus rate they had gotten in early 08, they were paying less than 3% for 5 years of that mortgage and upon renewal they went variable with rates barely over 2.5%. By the time they sold they had knocked the principal down by $400 grand.

I suspect that if rates do rise any great amount that the banks will simply go back to prime minus rates once again as they did back in the early 2000’s. I believe that the governments will do everything in their power to protect this bubble from popping but when it does pop (who knows when?), many people who have bought in the past 5 years will wish they hadn’t.

#168 Leo Trollstoy on 04.19.17 at 2:50 pm

Toronto real estate going Up Up Up!

Chillin in St. Thomas …

#169 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.19.17 at 2:51 pm

2 weekends ago, waiting to take off to Cuba, I overheard the lady in the plane seat directly in front of me discussing her plans to cash out of RE…

You assumed she was cashing out of T.O. and moving to the sticks, right? Nope… She was cashing out of Scugog Island for $1,000,000, quitting her job and moving to Haliburton.

So I hear her describing the property the property details: Hobby farm, acreage, indoor swimming pool, listing price, etc… More than enough info for me to quickly pull up realtor.ca and take a look at her property before we taxi to the runway and I’m forced to put my phone into airplane mode…

I also heard her say that she had listed a couple of weeks ago, hadn’t had any offers yet, but she was “sure” it would go.

Just checked realtor.ca, property is still there…

Moral of the story, it’s not just people cashing out of GTA, moving to the sticks, it’s also people from the sticks cashing out and moving further into the sticks. Domino effect.

I wonder if she waited too long to list? Will she ever be able to cash in?

#170 Ole Doberman on 04.19.17 at 3:07 pm

Looks like the gruesome threesome have something coming in a few days to smolder the market:

http://www.bnn.ca/ontario-s-finance-minister-zeroes-in-on-home-flippers-1.728538

#171 For those about to flop... on 04.19.17 at 3:13 pm

drtalc on 04.19.17 at 1:51 pm
Sousa, Tory and Morneau should take off the high heels
put on the construction boots and
act like men: start bulldozing instead of bullshitting
it’s time to build more subdivisions

/////////////////////
Hey Doc,
I’m actually o.k if they continue to wear high heels.

It’s the only way they are going to get blisters…

M42BC

#172 Johnny boy on 04.19.17 at 3:28 pm

#125 Deplorable Communications on 04.19.17 at 10:01 am

#110 Smoking Man on 04.19.17 at 6:45 am
I’m in the dog house now, Huge!
Wife had a shit load of jewelry in a recycle blue bag. Why she stash it there is anyone’s guess.
Cleaning up the house for a showings this weekend .
We search the blue bin for gold. We only found 17 empty JD mickys.
I’m in so much shit now after I took out a bible, placed my right hand on it and said. I’m a non drinker.
Going to miss Shlong Branch.
..
so where you going?
ecuador, the muskoa cottage or new york?
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Hell ya I forgot you have a massive cottage in the Muskoka’s. Sell that dam thing you idiot, unload it now quick well the Bay Street dingus’s spend like there is no tomorrow. We all know Trumps faults to a tee and we are a tweet away from Armageddon.

#173 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.19.17 at 3:29 pm

#160 Victor V on 04.19.17 at 1:54 pm

Ontario to unveil plan tomorrow to cool Toronto’s hot housing market, official says

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/ontario-to-unveil-measures-to-tame-torontos-red-hot-home-and-rental-markets-within-days
——————–

I read a Star article yesterday where they cited sources who divulged that there will be 10 measures put into place including:

– Foreign buyers tax
– Speculator’s tax
– Vacancy tax
– Rent controls for properties built after 1991
– Bidding war transparency rule

And that’s just 5 out of 10!

I think we hit peak GTA RE in March.

If you didn’t listen to Garth for the past few months and held off cashing out hoping for an extra 20, 30%, I think the window is now closed. Game over.

#174 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.19.17 at 3:40 pm

There are thousands upon thousands of people in the GTA just like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoHgy7EyoWQ

^ I personally know people with several houses, one with over 30 properties, who think just like the couple in this video…

The new measures that are about to be put into place could ruin a lot of people, even without a crash. But there will be a crash, so they’re going to be double screwed.

#175 Tony on 04.19.17 at 4:12 pm

Re: #170 For those about to flop… on 04.19.17 at 3:13 pm

Building won’t change a thing. That’s what they want you to believe but the net affect of building without measures taken to shut down the housing market speculation will have zero effect maybe even a negative effect.

#176 For those about to flop... on 04.19.17 at 4:27 pm

#175 Tony on 04.19.17 at 4:12 pm
Re: #170 For those about to flop… on 04.19.17 at 3:13 pm

Building won’t change a thing. That’s what they want you to believe but the net affect of building without measures taken to shut down the housing market speculation will have zero effect maybe even a negative effect.

////////////////////////

Tony ” two terms” Baloney , look at my post again I was responding to the Doc about his high heels quip about Sousa,Tory and Morneau.

Since you didn’t get it, and just to keep you interested I will throw in some fishnet stockings as well…

M42BC

#177 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 04.19.17 at 5:01 pm

Desperate out of work realtors are in an all out PANIC. Many are holding cash negative properties and wanting to cash out of this MONSTER of a Ponzi housing bubble. They is so many AIR POCKETS which means a house that sold for $1 million has NO BUYERS until $600K. Thousands of flippers and even home owners are looking to cash out and guess what?????? NO BUYERS… NO MONEY for indebted bag holders. Look out below it’s going to crash and CRASH HARD!!!!!

H A P P Y HOUSING CRASH EVERYONE!!!! :-)

#178 Protea on 04.19.17 at 5:09 pm

I have always been suspicious of the BC. Liberals intent to deal with certain issues, this is too do with the 15% foreign buyers tax which I had suspected had a massive loop hole , well after some research came across this article that confirms what I had heard. With the upcoming election and having lost faith in Christy Clarke for the first time in BC I am probably going to vote for the NDP to hopefully force a change in BC as I have lost complete respect for her as her result of her dishonesty. Not crazy about the NDP but my conscience tells me otherwise-time for a change in BC it’s called a cleansing process.

http://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver-pre-sale-condo-ponzi-scheme/

#179 jess on 04.19.17 at 5:24 pm

two jesses ?

#180 BillyBob on 04.19.17 at 5:31 pm

#102 Piet on 04.19.17 at 1:14 am
@#75 Jess
“The word is that Victoria is the most beautiful place with the best winters so we’re cooked!…”

“Didn’t it snow there this winter? — Garth”

It was a miserable winter in Victoria. With our nonexistent snow removal services, driving was a nightmare. For half of the year count yourself lucky to see the sun once in a fortnight. The spring so far has been bone chillingly cold and damp. Those of us who have been here long enough to know what the place is really like advise the hordes to stay away. Why burden yourself with the inconvenience of living on an island? Don’t listen to those new arrivals who send you photos of spring flowers in February. They’re just trying to mask with smugness their regret over having moved to such an expensive place.

===================================

You are absolutely correct about Victoria. I grew up there, and until I left I also bought into the whole “best-place-on-earth” schtick. I still go back to visit family, and yes, it’s pretty. But it’s also insufferably smug, arrogant, and insular. Milking tourists and trying to reinvent itself as a hipster haven in a way that reeks of desperation. But the bland generic character only partially masks a very cold, unfriendly vibe overall. If a city could have a personality, Victoria would be the poster child for passive-aggressive. People who smile with their mouth, not their eyes.

And it gets old paying a fortune to get on and off the island, trying to link flights and ferries etc etc…ugh.

When the sad day arrives that my folks pass on, I’ll never return.

Now if NS Guy would just shut up about Nova Scotia before too many people figure out where the nicest place and people in the country are, and ruin it…;-)

Shush!

#181 jess on 04.19.17 at 5:36 pm

A.G. Schneiderman Announces $40 Million Settlement With Investment Management Company For Tax Abuses, Marking Largest Tax Whistleblower Recovery In Office’s History

AG Reaches Groundbreaking Settlement With Harbert Management Corporation After Members Of Its Investment Management Company Failed To Pay Millions In New York State Taxes For Several Years

NEW YORK— In the largest-ever recovery of its kind, Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman announced today a $40 million settlement with Alabama-based Harbert Management Corporation and top executives at the firm. Harbert Management was the fund sponsor for Harbinger Capital Partners, a $26 billion hedge fund based in New York City (“Harbinger Fund”). The settlement resolves whistleblower allegations that members of Harbinger’s investment manager failed to pay millions in New York State tax on performance income for several years.

https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/ag-schneiderman-announces-40-million-settlement-investment-management-company-tax
===============

Indian tycoon Vijay Mallya bailed in UK (19 Apr 2017)
Business tycoon Vijay Mallya arrested in London over money laundering charges in India (19 Apr 2017)

#182 The Wet Coast on 04.19.17 at 5:49 pm

#178 Protea

Yup you’re not alone, as I plan to vote NDP as well. What I have seen from the Provincial Liberals is incompetence, dishonesty or both. They need time in the penalty box to get their house in order, as they have been in power too long. Getting an NDP government will have consequences too, but it’s time.

#183 Vancouver on 04.19.17 at 5:53 pm

Here in metro Vancouver the Northshore News wanted the stats on the percentage of foreign buyers in the city of West Vancouver. The BC Liberal government refused to provide the data breakdown – yup refused – and it took a FOI for the paper to get this information.

Maybe the stats didn’t fit the political narrative. Who knows.

And the stats revealed:

“Foreigners bought almost 24 per cent of West Vancouver real estate sold in the weeks before the province brought in its 15 per cent foreign buyers tax last summer.

That makes West Vancouver’s high-end real estate market an area with one of the highest proportions of foreign real estate sales prior to the imposition of the tax, just behind Richmond, where foreign buyers accounted for 27 per cent of sales volume, and Burnaby, where 24 per cent of sales went to foreigners during the same time period.”

#184 SourceoftheFiasco on 04.19.17 at 5:53 pm

Exciting Garth!

Finally we will know whose actually driving up real estate prices in Toronto: citizenship and residency query on land transfers that GVA should have started with:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ontario-housing-real-estate-1.4076068?cmp=rss

it’s Garth vs the rest of the Canuck planet’s opinion on this one. Can’t wait to see some compiled survey results…

They will support the obvious. Well over 90% of all transactions are local-to-local. — Garth

#185 maxx on 04.19.17 at 6:17 pm

#50 A Yank in BC on 04.18.17 at 8:30 pm

“I asked a total stranger in a shoe store today how he was doing (just making polite conversation), and his immediate answer was to start talking about real estate prices in the city in which he lives here on Vancouver Island. Incredible. Do Canadians think of anything else?

He never did tell me how he was doing.”

Yes he did…..OCD.

The loonie isn’t just on the coin- it’s come to represent the national state of mind with this re madness.

#186 SilverSon on 04.19.17 at 6:20 pm

Garth’s response to #144,

I appreciate the note Garth. While I don’t like to think of anyone literally starving, I’m glad to learn that all Realtors are not gobbling up as much money as it seems they are. I don’t know many Realtors (only three in fact) but they must be the 20% that do 80% of the sales because the show of wealth over the past couple years has been crazy – some combination of $100k+ cars, boats, and airplanes among other frivolities. Sad to think the horn dogs who bought those houses are going to be paying interest for 30 years on the money they handed over to the Realtors who pissed it away in a matter of months. Then again the buyers were the ones dumb enough to hand over the money so I guess you can’t blame the Realtors for taking it. It’s still too bad that 65% of $2-trillion is tied up in piles of bricks for the next 30 years though – that money could have been used for something so much more worthy like efforts towards fixing our planet or curing a disease or something to help us avoid us living off the public purse throughout our retirement.

#187 Tony on 04.19.17 at 7:35 pm

Re: #176 For those about to flop… on 04.19.17 at 4:27 pm

At least other people got to read it. It’s another one of those famous lines to con the public into buying real estate. The converse of they’re not building anymore land. All the classic one-liners.

#188 Robbing Hood on 04.19.17 at 7:53 pm

#173 When Will They Raise Rates? Yeah I read that , but it seems more speculation on what those measures might be, rather than real info. Anyway, some of those measures could backfire big time in just 2-3 years, after a bit of cooling effect. Because they will reduce investment in new housing. Just like we are seeing in BC. Long term, only a recession will really be effective, maybe they want to induce it since they’ll be out next year anyway, so what do they care?

#189 Robbing Hood on 04.19.17 at 8:01 pm

#183 Vancouver Problem with all this idiotic talk with no real *long term* data to back it up is that it pulls forward sales and distorts the market. I guess if they were to speculate for talk for a few month about taxing short fat bearded home buyers , they will find that just prior to introducing such a tax, short, fat bearded men will form a high percentage of home buyers.

#190 Future Expatriate on 04.19.17 at 8:43 pm

Nuclear war will not be a relief, nor is it needed to wipe the US infrastructure and military off the map. Literally, out to sea.

Google Cumbre Vieja, and then look at East Molokai. Do the supertsunami math. Just TWO bunker busters, and don’t think China, Russia, Iran, and even nutcase NK haven’t full attack plans. After both coasts are gone (including Langley, DC, Manhattan, all of Florida,) it only takes a a handful of nukes to take out the interior miltiary bases left. Bunker busters for the Denver underground.

The only people dumber than Trump are his supporters.

There was a reason the US had a sane President the last eight years, and a reason for his sabre-rattling reticence. You betcha Oberführer Trump wasn’t supposed to win, and don’t think he doesn’t have the entire gov on Defcon ONE scramble.

By the way, the east flank of East Molokai going into the Pacific will end BC’s real estate boom. Forever.

Sometimes much vaunted military “superiority” is bupkiss.

Besides, Trump already announced he’s attacking NK in four weeks. And I quote “If I was going to attack NK in four weeks I wouldn’t tell you.”

Genius. The man is a genius. When America becomes more of a problem for China than NK, buh-bye USA, USA.

#191 Sir James on 04.19.17 at 9:19 pm

Welland needs TO money!!
Lots of good deals still, pocket the loot!

57 EVAN Street, Welland, Ontario L3B3V3
$174,900

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18040278/57-EVAN-Street-Welland-Ontario-L3B3V3

#192 Sir James on 04.19.17 at 9:20 pm

Cannabis Smokey!

Its the only way I survived my first year of sobriety.

#193 Reverse Midas Touch on 04.20.17 at 9:33 am

Nadia can’t afford any more rent increases, so Kathleen asks Charles to slap those pesky owners with some regulation. AND with some hydro increases, taxes, audits and we’ll meet again in 3 month to see how we can slap them some more. But make no mistakes, we welcome investors, especially those feeble minded enough to believe us.

#194 Marketpundit on 04.20.17 at 1:19 pm

Check Home Capital (HCG.TO) share price action: -20% today alone. Big Short at play?