Bubble bloat

There are two reasons your daughter can’t afford to buy real estate (not that she should). First, as detailed here on Friday, money’s too cheap. The lower rates are, the more houses cost. Until the Bank of Canada stops wussing out, not much change. Second, listings are scarce. “In my 18 years in this business,” says an agent in the Niagara Region (where prices are romping), “I have never seen this kind of a drought.”

In fact, it’s been this lack of inventory which resulted in Toronto having just a 10-day supply of detached houses for sale at the end of the winter. That led to packed open houses, bidding wars and absurd offers. You saw the result – a 33% escalation in March, plus a raft of shocked politicians now hot to take action. (God help us.)

Anyway, looks like things are changing. Fast.

Realtor Dan shoved me this notice below from the sign guy at his brokerage in the east end of the Big Smoke. “This is the first time it’s happened,” he says. “There are lots coming out!”

From: The Sign Installers
Sent: Saturday, April 8, 2017 1:49 PM

Subject: **** IMPORTANT NOTICE – POSSIBLE DELAY ****

**** IMPORTANT ****
This spring market is AWESOME, and we are happy that our customers are doing so well.  And we genuinely appreciate you selecting us as your sign installation company.
DUE TO HIGH CALL VOLUMES, your order may take two business days to install, instead of the usual one day.  Our drivers are working up until 9PM each day in an attempt to deliver on our exceptional service.
Please communicate with your vendors and set their expectations accordingly.

Realtor stats bear out the growing tsunami of new listings. Last month in Vancouver, for example, new properties coming to market surged by 30%, while in the GTA they grew by more than 15% – which translates into about 2,500 additional houses suddenly for sale.

Yeah, yeah, it’s Spring. Rutting season. The running of the saps. The house-horniest hunk of the calendar – the time one would expect an increase in available properties. And while we’re still running 20-30% below listings levels for this time last year, the imbalance could be addressed soon – giving some much-needed relief to war-weary house-hunters.

Remember, people have not listed because (a) they’re greedy and think every home will go to $5 million, or (b) they couldn’t afford to buy again. A $1.5 million house yields $1.41 million after commission, HST and legals. Buying a $1.5 million house (in Toronto) costs $1,553,000 with land transfer tax. So, moving piddles away $143,000. That buys a nice kitchen reno.

This is what economists mean when they discuss ‘locked-in equity’ – windfall gains people have made thanks to the delusional, house-lusty times in which we live, but feel absolutely unable to unlock. The key question is this: would you buy your own home today for what you think it’s worth? The universal answer: no friggin’ way. Let some greater fool do that.

One danger in ever-escalating markets is that economic activity slows along with listings. Net worth is rising as houses plump, but incomes aren’t keeping pace. In other words, people don’t have more money although they’ve been given more wealth. They may feel richer, but they spend no more. Worse, as property values escalate, those who are buying do so with Herculean gobs of debt. Household cash flow is Hoovered off in mortgage and HELOC payments, earning the banks record profits but starving the local mall.

Hell, even the realtors are suffering. “This is absolutely the worst ever year in my entire career,” says veteran Toronto house-flogger David. “One sale in the last ten months – and I was lucky on that one.” Despite prices at record levels, most agents represent buyers whose offers are not accepted by the fickle, pay-me-my-ransom sellers. So they put in days or weeks of work on behalf of their clients, for nothing. And remember, there are more than 43,000 of these wretched souls, cruising up and down in their R7s, worrying where the next lease payment will come from.

However, here we are. The first listings bloat in a year. More supply to meet the moister demand, taking some the steam out of an historic seller’s market. And just in time for governments to move in and pervert the laws of supply and demand. Not long now.

134 comments ↓

#1 First on 04.09.17 at 4:14 pm

First.

Gonna go buy a condo now, ciao.

Sincerely,
First.

#2 BlogDog123 on 04.09.17 at 4:20 pm

Mississauga Lakeview, house across the street sold a year or so ago for about $735k. After a year of swanky renos, now listed by a slick well-known Mississauga realtor. 1950’s era Cape-Cod style house, 60×130 lot, old tall trees, noisy highway nearby. Listed at around $1,300,000.

Who will be the greater fool to pony up the cash?

#3 ShawnG in TO on 04.09.17 at 4:22 pm

funny but true. makes sense when you think about it. the agents, over all, are not making much money because so few deal are made. sure, the winning agent hits the jackpot, but so vast majority don’t get anything. another sign of the twisted market.

i hope the sign guys are saving their hot business income, because the market ain’t gonna be hot for long. i hope they don’t hire someone new, at least someone who thinks this job will perfectly safe, and (god forbid) go out and get a million dollar shed with this.

#4 For those about to flop... on 04.09.17 at 4:36 pm

With the collapse in sales for detached properties on the Westside of Vancouver and North Vancouver up year over year ,this has enabled the two north shore cities to be atop the leaderboard bumping Vancouver proper into third spot on the average sales price list.

WULLY,I hope Sergio didn’t jinx it with the choice of his wardrobe…

M42BC

#5 OttawaMike on 04.09.17 at 4:49 pm

A. What happened to the sellers fear of not being able to afford something else Meme?

B. Increased house values create a wealth effect. Homeowners splurge on toys, vacations and renos via HELOCs and increase overall spending.

Or is it different this time?

#6 OttawaMike on 04.09.17 at 4:54 pm

C. When is smoking man coming back?

#7 farnam mohasseb on 04.09.17 at 5:01 pm

Vancouver had that rout last year of “correction” yet townhouses and condo and almost anything less than a 1M is still increasing in value…

Who cares about number of sales when prices go up fast on low inventory and sticky as hell on a way down.

Even Calgary with crushed job market did not crash in a meaningful way

#8 GFC v2.0 on 04.09.17 at 5:10 pm

“….Hell, even the realtors are suffering. “This is absolutely the worst ever year in my entire career,” says veteran Toronto house-flogger David. “One sale in the last ten months – and I was lucky on that one.”…….”
_________________________

Karma.

#9 Just say no on 04.09.17 at 5:14 pm

This is intense! I really enjoyed this one! As for years now my homeowner friends have always said “oh we could never buy our house now” And yet brag how well they are doing? And then they take out HELOC and buy new furniture and RV’s that they won’t take anywhere cause the gas it too much? Then refinance again and the low payment beats renting etc. And the increase in house assessment further inflate their smuggness. It is hard to sell something that is not really your so -equity underwater is another reason no listings. Sure make the payments then die and let the estate work it out….sad

#10 pricedout on 04.09.17 at 5:16 pm

hope this applies to Victoria too, or soon :/

#11 Half Full on 04.09.17 at 5:16 pm

Hard to continue to wait for prices to turn when “not long now” has been the mantra since 2010. And once prices turn, how long until they become affordable again? Rent continues to increase, it’ll have been well over a decade that we have been renting, waiting for houses to become affordable. I’m not a 20 something buying a condo. I’d like a home. Someday.

#12 Timmy on 04.09.17 at 5:29 pm

So we’ve waited for the correction for years and now its finally happening, yet the dearth of listings seems to be keeping prices ridiculously high. I wonder how much longer we will have to wait until prices actually drop significantly.

#13 JohnnyBoy on 04.09.17 at 5:31 pm

Apr 6, 2017

Rosenberg: Toronto housing bubble ‘on par with what we had in the States’

Gluskin Sheff Chief Economist David Rosenberg is joining the growing chorus of calls for government intervention into the Toronto housing market. In an interview on BNN, Rosenberg, who correctly called the U.S. housing bubble in 2005, said the massive deviation from historical norms has him drawing comparisons between the two situations.

“This bubble is on par with what we had in the States back in ’05, ’06, ’07,” he said. “We have to actually take a look at the situation. The housing market here is in a classic price bubble. If you don’t acknowledge that, you have your head in the sand.”

“These are not prices driven by the local fundamentals — this is the foreign buyer coming in,” Rosenberg said. “Toronto has really emerged as a first-class city, not just politically, not just culturally and economically, but also in terms of being a major financial centre. But if you’re going to ask me at this stage, ‘do we need to approach taxation of this capital coming in differently to curb the demand?’ [That’s] absolutely right.”

A few excerpts from his interview.

#14 klm bob on 04.09.17 at 5:46 pm

Garth, do you think there is a serious chance the government might return to its 2009 measures in order to keep the housing market from finally starting its long-overdue melt? If it does not, what alternative measures can Canada rely on to prevent a major recession? I cannot think of any. Perhaps a major devaluation of the loonie could become a savior, but this has lots of other potentially devastating problems, no? In short, isn’t it true the the government has no choice but to keep the housing bubble(s) going?

#15 Dan.t on 04.09.17 at 5:49 pm

Yes, how much longer can Canadians buy each other’s houses? “I have 3 houses”, “ja, I own 2 and 4 apartments” we are so smart! All negative cash flow and debt out the arse but hey, just sell and make millions when I can no longer afford the monthlys. Enjoy the last hourra – after this year it’s lights out for s lot of leveraged to the balls “investors “. Can’t happen soon enough!

#16 Dan.t on 04.09.17 at 5:51 pm

And, for some odd reason, I miss smoking man too… Stil not sure why, ive only been skimming his posts for years now.

#17 Vancouver Housing is NOT correcting in a meaningful way. on 04.09.17 at 6:02 pm

Completely agree with farnam,”Who cares about number of sales when prices go up fast on low inventory and sticky as hell on a way down.”

I’ve also been waiting for this so-called Vancouver “correction” you speak of as well, Garth! Sure prices in the high end are coming down a tiny bit or stagnating. This doesn’t help us. Housing under $1M still increasing. No crash or bubble burst in Vancouver, I imagine Toronto will be the same.

#18 Vancouver Housing is NOT correcting in a meaningful way. on 04.09.17 at 6:04 pm

Nothing is going to happen until interest rates start to go up.

The fed is on track for 3 hikes in 2017? So What! What does 0.75% get us in terms of house price decrease? Peanuts, that’s what.

Sincerely,

your “smart” millennial

#19 WUL on 04.09.17 at 6:12 pm

FLOP:

I saw your query about Sergio’s vestments. I would be pleased with a victory by either the Spaniard or the English Rose.

I am contemplating a career change. My golf buddies (Calgary and Vernon) wager on the Majors. Two golfers are picked by each of us on a points system. Last year I was 3 of 4. I went with the Rickie and Hideki Show in the Masters an am heading for 4 of the last 5 Majors. When I become a punter hanging around betting shops, I’ll find Smoking Man.

To return to topic, more mildly improving real estate numbers in Calgary.

Flop, work on that ankle to regain your full turn and I’ll see you on the first tee. Thanks Garth.

#20 common sense on 04.09.17 at 6:14 pm

Smoking man adds comic relief…

Kind of like the old cranky uncle we all had…opinionated, cock eyed, half gassed, funny at times, hard headed, spoke without filter and you never knew if he would slap ya up the side of the head or drop a dollar on you just because…

#21 Doug in London on 04.09.17 at 6:27 pm

So, there’s an increase in listings in the GTA. At long last, more people are getting the message that’s time to cash in that winning lottery ticket. Now for my question, what took you so long? The OLGC (Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation) has been going absolutely crazy trying to contact you!

#22 Lulu on 04.09.17 at 6:27 pm

Yea, listing is surging but so with the asking price, no one will lower their asking of the same street sold property. Everywhere with detached or semi like holding a bucket of gold waiting to bank in their eggs. It works so well for so many years and now you are telling me the game is over? No way jose! The chair is still spinning till Mother Yellen ring the bell few more times at least before ppl start to freak. Otherwise, they adapt and move up higher. You’ll see, or the big black swan is brewing— the war over the middle east. Interesting time ahead and see what will gonna happen over the next few months.

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.17 at 6:30 pm

@#16 Dan t.
“And, for some odd reason, I miss smoking man too… Stil not sure why, ive only been skimming his posts for years now…..”
********************************************

Its the “slow motion train wreck” effect.
You’re secretly horrified at the carnage but you cant look away, no matter what happens……..I’m used to it.

#24 Sebastien on 04.09.17 at 6:33 pm

Garth used a pug pic. At last :)

#25 Renter in Van on 04.09.17 at 6:38 pm

This can’t end well. This property sold in Vancouver for $643,000 in 2014 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-s-cheapest-house-sold-1.2609673). I remember it because it was Vancouver’s “cheapest house”. They have just re-listed for $1.1 million (https://www.remax.ca/bc/vancouver-real-estate/na-2622-clark-drive-na-wp_id169195154-lst/).

It is on the busiest, smelliest intersections in the city. It is on a half lot with no garden whatsoever. It also opens directly onto the road. I can only imagine how noisy it must be when semis roll past. If someone buys this for anywhere near to $1.1 million they must be mad.

#26 LH on 04.09.17 at 6:39 pm

New book, just finished reading it

While about the U.K., germane to this conversation

Conclusion: I will hold on to my 7 SFHs for now

Signed,

A rentier

#27 LH on 04.09.17 at 6:41 pm

Forgot the link:

https://www.google.co.jp/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ffa66898-fe7b-11e6-96f8-3700c5664d30

#28 LH on 04.09.17 at 6:42 pm

Let me try again:

https://www.zedbooks.net/shop/book/rethinking-the-economics-of-land-and-housing/

#29 Tlg on 04.09.17 at 6:42 pm

#18 Vancouver Housing is NOT correcting in a meaningful way.

You are absolutely right . .75% will do nothing to curb demand, and if u announce it ahead of time it will inflate the bubble even more for fear of missing out !

#30 im not buyin' what dey sellin' on 04.09.17 at 6:45 pm

“These are not prices driven by the local fundamentals — this is the foreign buyer coming in,” Rosenberg said.


He is stating an opinion as if it’s a fact, while offering no evidence whatsoever. And this guy wants to manage your money. He has no way of knowing where the money is coming from.
His logic is ‘if the fundamentals aren’t there … it’s foreign money’, doesn’t even qualify as a logical fallacy.
Best shill in his price range

#31 Wheels on 04.09.17 at 6:46 pm

Traded in the Road King for a Stateline 1300. Buy HD and ride it to the garage. Buy Honda and just ride. — Garth

——————-

Nice to see that you came to your senses.

#32 Nonplused on 04.09.17 at 7:04 pm

$143,000 to move? Ok, that’s based on a $1.5 million dollar house which not very many of us are going to be buying, but still. If you paid $3000 a month in rent you could rent for 48 months before you’d spend $143,000 which is almost as long as most people stay in a house to begin with. Add in property taxes and mortgage payments and it is pretty clear owning one of these things makes no sense at all.

And don’t forget these different fees that add up to $143,000 come out of your after tax income, just like the mortgage payments do. So you’d have to be coining some big doe to come up with that kind of money. Unless of course you simply added it to the mortgage, which is what I imagine most people do.

It’s kind of brilliant really. There isn’t much left out there to tax so they’ve come up with a way to make people take out a mortgage to pay a frivolous “land transfer fee”. It looks like Economystical was right and they do have a plan to raise taxes above 100%.

#33 Al on 04.09.17 at 7:10 pm

A home (80 Dawn Hill Trail, Markham) sold for $1.3 million in August 2016, flipped for $1.65 million in March 2017 and the new Buyer has just leased it for $2,390/month which is a 1.74% ROI if tenant pays for all costs and if there is no mortgage. Make sense to you?

#34 Damifino on 04.09.17 at 7:15 pm

It looks like I’ll finally be able to decommission my Smoking Man filter and maybe even a few others that seem to have stopped coming around.

#35 Tony on 04.09.17 at 7:18 pm

Re: #7 farnam mohasseb on 04.09.17 at 5:01 pm

Calgary is down 20 to 25 percent from the October 2014 peak. Look at the mls figures from then to now.

#36 Tony on 04.09.17 at 7:21 pm

Re: #30 im not buyin’ what dey sellin’ on 04.09.17 at 6:45 pm

No evidence huh? Like the locals are making a half a million dollars a year working to afford the average detached house in Vancouver. Wake up!!

#37 Ya, budz on 04.09.17 at 7:27 pm

I work with a spec property developer in North Vancouver. His last three sale prices had to be lowered between 10 and 15 percent (which were already lower than the prices he was receiving the year prior). And, the last sale was on a rent-to-own agreement. West Vancouver’s population has declined for two years now as the upper crust are cashing out and moving.

#38 For those about to flop... on 04.09.17 at 7:43 pm

Pink Pollen falling in North Vancouver.

Broadway ,wanna help me out by telling me what 955 Forest Hills Drive, North Vancouver went for?

They were asking less than they bought it for last year despite North Vancouver being one of the few cities up from last year…

M42BC

#39 Renting in Toronto on 04.09.17 at 7:47 pm

Forever .

Signed ,

I’m an idiot for not buying 8 years ago

#40 NoName on 04.09.17 at 7:47 pm

Take this study it with grain of salt.

The presence of microplastics in commercial salts from different countries

http://bit.ly/2ofOemT

#41 Smoking Man on 04.09.17 at 7:52 pm

See dogs. I’m not in the dog house anymore.
By the way, thanks for the support.

But busy like crazy, big changes soon. See you all at the forks of the credit Saturday May 13. High noon.

I’ll resume posting regularly when I’m out of Canada.

#42 Pete on 04.09.17 at 7:54 pm

Found this talking about rhe breaded one. Old article but shows Garth’s investment approach works. http://www.millennial-revolution.com/invest/how-we-got-here-part-4-the-bearded-one/

#43 I'm stupid on 04.09.17 at 7:55 pm

Speaking of the GTA and the majority of people.

I see two very distinct groups of people.

Group 1. Home Owners, feeling wealthy but having trapped wealth, highly indebted and needing to scrape by to pay the huge monthly bills. Not great for the economy

Group 2. Renters, feeling poor, saving as much as they can in the hopes homes come down in value so they too can buy. Not good for the economy

The conclusion is that the entire situation is terrible for the economy. I can’t imagine a situation where we’re not in a recession in the next 2 years. I know there are no indicators to suggest a recession but how can the outcome be different? Oil collapsed, consumers are either house rich and cash poor or they’re renting and trying no to spend and the majority of the growth is coming from home related industries.

#44 Toronto Renter on 04.09.17 at 7:57 pm

#33 Al on 04.09.17 at 7:10 pm

A home (80 Dawn Hill Trail, Markham) sold for $1.3 million in August 2016, flipped for $1.65 million in March 2017 and the new Buyer has just leased it for $2,390/month which is a 1.74% ROI if tenant pays for all costs and if there is no mortgage. Make sense to you?

Considering the property tax and maintenance, it is less than 0.9%

#45 eastern promises on 04.09.17 at 8:08 pm

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-03/29/c_136167353.htm

Some ideas for our intrepid leaders from their mentors…

#46 Rich Young on 04.09.17 at 8:09 pm

BANKS TO END PAYMENT HOLIDAY FOR CALGARIANS… after a long and continuing pain for Albertans … Bank branches to release record #s of foreclosures this Spring. Many of these clients were given payment holidays. However, the higher ratio lends must be cashed in. Prices should see softening in Calgary soon despite some recent bidding wars. Bidding wars in an area with 10%+ unemployment… A JOKE INDEED … but it is to come to an end soon. Based on My calculations the first wave should be some 400 homes in Foreclosure to be released to the market.

#47 Another Deckchair on 04.09.17 at 8:20 pm

@16 Dan.t
“And, for some odd reason, I miss smoking man too… Stil not sure why, ive only been skimming his posts for years now.”

To add to your thoughts, I wondered if some of the posts of his with the words “DELETED” were actually Smoking Man self-editing, or whether Garth actually deleted the contents…. One of life’s little wonders. ;-)

#48 JohnnyBoy on 04.09.17 at 8:33 pm

#30 – You r in denial of reality.

There is alot of truth to Rosenberg’s comment, “These are not prices driven by the local fundamentals — this is the foreign buyer coming in,”.

Come to Unionville/Thornhill/Richmond Hill and I will show you Rosenberg’s accurate depiction of the foreign buyer phenomenon.

A concentration of buyers of one ethnicity does not mean they are all ‘foreign.’ — Garth

#49 common sense on 04.09.17 at 8:40 pm

2017 has to be “THE YEAR” yet we have been saying it has to be “THE YEAR” , the past 4.

#50 John Martin on 04.09.17 at 8:40 pm

Re: Where`s Smoking man ? I have a theory. Some time ago a lady was trying to hook up with him and I`m afraid this may have happened. It was quite obvious she wanted to have her way with him. If this is the case when we get SM back there will be nothing left but big white teeth and eyeballs. On the other hand if we don`t get him back, what a way to go ? eh !! :)

M80MB

#51 Al on 04.09.17 at 8:42 pm

Re: #33. That home that sold for $1.65 mill would carry for $4,400/month on mortgage + $700/mo for property Tax & fire insurance if a local put $650,000 down. No way would someone with $650,000 cash would rent it for $2,390/month. This was an all cash deal and most likely sold to a foreign buyer.

#52 im not buyin' what dey sellin' on 04.09.17 at 8:50 pm

#36 Tony on 04.09.17 at 7:21 pm
Re: #30 im not buyin’ what dey sellin’ on 04.09.17 at 6:45 pm

No evidence huh? Like the locals are making a half a million dollars a year working to afford the average detached house in Vancouver. Wake up!!

When an agent presents a firm cash offer, no one- no one asks about ‘salaries’ Many locals have all cash.

#53 Vancouver Dudes on 04.09.17 at 8:54 pm

DELETED

#54 millmech on 04.09.17 at 8:57 pm

#18
.75% rate increase in a year gets you nothing, but when you add .75% the next year and run that forward 5 years it starts to add up.
It is like the proverb of putting a frog in a pot of boiling water it will jump out, gradually turn up the heat it will boil to death.
People could be hit with 6%-8% mortgage rates in five years which is normal but to the person who had a 2%-3% five year mortgage this will be unheard of.
The common theme I keep hearing over and over again is that the government can not let interest rates rise because too many people would be financially screwed. People will learn a hard financial lesson if they are not prepared for a higher interest rates in the future.
Been there, done that

#55 JohnnyBoy on 04.09.17 at 9:05 pm

A concentration of buyers of one ethnicity does not mean they are all ‘foreign.’ — Garth”

Yes, ofcourse they are not all foreign buyers, but in many instances the foreign buyer in Unionville, Thornhill and Richmond Hill have driven up prices, and no I didn’t mention the one ethnicity that dominates these 3 areas of common wealth.

#56 Mariv on 04.09.17 at 9:10 pm

A friend of mine wants to sell in the GTA. Her Aunt, who is a lawyer at a bank, told her yesterday that she had better sell her house fast, before the end of May… but didn’t explain why…. just based on “rumblings”. Then my in-laws asked if they were selling before the “changes happen”… so made me really wonder now. Can anyone help me out here? Are rules changing or just the downfall of the Six?

#57 Vancouver Dudes on 04.09.17 at 9:10 pm

DELETED

#58 Darryl on 04.09.17 at 9:28 pm

Smoking mn must have really p’d you off Garth.
Looks like all of his posts have been removed from your archives .

#59 Vancouver Dudes on 04.09.17 at 9:29 pm

DELETED

#60 JohnnyBoy on 04.09.17 at 9:30 pm

#55 Mariv

The “Five Deadly Venoms” was a classic depiction of disguise and treachery, and this GTA market will unfold itself in a similar manner. Stay Tuned.

#61 Also in Cowtown on 04.09.17 at 9:35 pm

#45 Rich Young
“BANKS TO END PAYMENT HOLIDAY FOR CALGARIANS”

Rich, I have not been able to verify this claim. Can you post a link?

Thanks

#62 Conspiracy Theories on 04.09.17 at 9:45 pm

“Many Americans believe a lot of dumb, crazy, destructive, provably wrong stuff. Lately this is especially (though not exclusively) true of Donald Trump voters, according to a new survey.

“The survey, from the Economist/YouGov, was conducted in mid-December, and it finds that willingness to believe a given conspiracy theory is (surprise!) strongly related to whether that conspiracy theory supports one’s political preferences….

“Some of these misperceptions and false beliefs may seem laughable. To me, they’re terrifying. They result in misused resources, violence and harassment, health risks, bad policy, and, ultimately, the deterioration of democracy. Good governance becomes more challenging when Americans live in parallel universes of facts.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/rampage/wp/2016/12/28/americans-especially-but-not-exclusively-trump-voters-believe-crazy-wrong-things/?utm_term=.2cbf5880ca44#comments

#63 Karma on 04.09.17 at 9:55 pm

#15 Dan.t on 04.09.17 at 5:49 pm
“Yes, how much longer can Canadians buy each other’s houses? “I have 3 houses”, “ja, I own 2 and 4 apartments” we are so smart! All negative cash flow and debt out the arse but hey, just sell and make millions when I can no longer afford the monthlys. Enjoy the last hourra – after this year it’s lights out for s lot of leveraged to the balls “investors “. Can’t happen soon enough!”

My buddy just sold his 2 bed condo in Brentwood mall area of Burnaby to a chinese lady. It was two competing chinese ladies for it, played one off of the other to get both to commit to no subjects.

Knowing rents in the area and his strata fees and property taxes, the “winning” bid amounts to a cap rate of 2.5%. Given that 5-year fixed mortgage rates at the big banks are between 2.69% and 2.89% or so at the moment, that means this purchase is dilutive if they use a mortgage!

A reminder that just because people have money doesn’t mean they are smart with it.

#64 Karma on 04.09.17 at 10:01 pm

#18 Vancouver Housing is NOT correcting in a meaningful way. on 04.09.17 at 6:04 pm
“Nothing is going to happen until interest rates start to go up.

The fed is on track for 3 hikes in 2017? So What! What does 0.75% get us in terms of house price decrease? Peanuts, that’s what.

Sincerely,

your “smart” millennial”
————————————

So “smart” millenial, are you saying that when you make the biggest purchase of your life to date, you think about only 1 year into the future? 0.75% in one year doesn’t sound like much, but what about year 2? If they do another 0.75% in year 2, that’s 1.5% over two years. And what if in 5 years, when you need to renew, it’s 2.50% higher than today? Can you double the interest portion of your mortgage payment easily? Are you forced to re-amortize your mortgage back to 25 years in order to be able to afford the monthly payments? Are you going to need your parents to provide you with an equity injection if the bank thinks your condo/house is worth less than 125% of the remaining mortgage?

Serious questions. Think about it. Your 1-year timeline isn’t long enough.

#65 Madcat on 04.09.17 at 10:06 pm

Lol! Maybe this will be Smoking Man’s rock bottom…

#66 Karma on 04.09.17 at 10:16 pm

#51 im not buyin’ what dey sellin’ on 04.09.17 at 8:50 pm
“#36 Tony on 04.09.17 at 7:21 pm
Re: #30 im not buyin’ what dey sellin’ on 04.09.17 at 6:45 pm

No evidence huh? Like the locals are making a half a million dollars a year working to afford the average detached house in Vancouver. Wake up!!

When an agent presents a firm cash offer, no one- no one asks about ‘salaries’ Many locals have all cash.”

——————————-

What’s your definition of “many”? 1%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 50%?
Why are you talking about agents? Why would they care about salary when they aren’t a vested party?

#67 Ontario's Left Coast on 04.09.17 at 10:30 pm

My theory: Smokey got tired of beving a world-famous author and moved in with Richard Simmons. Freedom First is now their sassy man-servant.

#68 Rich Young on 04.09.17 at 10:34 pm

@ Cowtown please read ” Based on My calculations ”

I’m in exterior construction and hook people up with banks to complete renovations they can not afford. One person @ one major bank told me they are releasing 80 foreclosures this spring. Two Alberta based institutions are holding a pile of non performing loans. This is my estimate as I indicated in my post. Sold my home and am renting a super small place in NW Calgary and socking away cash patiently waiting for this increased listing activity. If you have a house to sell it is best to get ahead of this wave. Banks can not hold these loans forever as they increase in size each month without any payment going against them. Some people are also on interest only payments. This is going to start to turn ugly this spring and by this Fall we should see more for sale than can be absorbed. My hood is now starting to see new listings pop up and none of the old listings have sold. The foreclosure behind our place has since been bought from ScotiaBank

#69 Pete on 04.09.17 at 10:34 pm

Also in Cowtown on 04.09.17 at 9:35 pm
#45 Rich Young
“BANKS TO END PAYMENT HOLIDAY FOR CALGARIANS”

Rich, I have not been able to verify this claim. Can you post a link?

Thanks

Word is banks realize people now have no way or intention of paying back their mortgages. The stupid CONservatives allowed banks to lend to people until they went bankrupt. Toronto/GTA is no different as banks are lending people money until they are bankrupt. Homeowners are bankrupt right now but HELOCs and credit cards allow bankrupt people from actually going bankrupt. If Canada had free markets for a year there would be massive foreclosures all across Canada and every idiot would wonder where are the foreigners to save them

#70 Vit on 04.09.17 at 10:53 pm

Actually moving is not so expansive. Mississauga example . Sell your 1.5 mil house . Use Redpin brokers 0% commiss ions or sell thru Property brothers – sell buy owner , so you pay 2.5% to buyers agent = 37500 . When you buy another property request 1% back toy you from your brokers commission ( with 50000 of them ) they will do it . So buy 1 mil. house get $10000 back and pay 2% land transfer tax =$20000 .
So 37500 -10000+20000=$47500.
Only $47500 expense and you banked half a million and still have a decent property.

#71 Pre-retiree on 04.09.17 at 11:08 pm

Interesting stories today and in “Maybe, part deux”, giving hope that maybe the bubble is indeed deflating. However, these stories remain anecdotal. If true, the evidence will not be apparent until perhaps the end of the summer.

#72 Brian on 04.09.17 at 11:13 pm

I noticed you quote anecdotal info when it suits your position, yet anecdotes about HAM go ignored.

Yes, I try to ignore the xenophobia and Chinese-bashing so popular these days. If you have a problem with that, leave. — Garth

#73 april on 04.10.17 at 12:23 am

#29 – Vancouver houses have already declined by 27% as per Ross Kay.

#74 VANCOUVER DUDES on 04.10.17 at 1:04 am

DELETED

#75 lee on 04.10.17 at 1:08 am

New York State will now pay tuition for public college students whose families earn under $125,000.00 per year. The government lefty indoctro campaign continues.

#76 Goober on 04.10.17 at 1:14 am

It’s easy to see why Doug Rowat was the guest blogger this week – Ryan was busy over at the Mother Corp. giving his best financial advice on how best to save and invest your money instead of wasting it on a big, pompous wedding. Look for Garth’s stylish protégée starting around the 16 minute mark of the “Wedding Showdown” episode. For what it’s worth, I think Freedom First would have given a much more direct answer on how best to save money on nuptials.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.17 at 1:19 am

@#66 Ontario Torture Monkey
“My theory: Smokey got tired of beving a world-famous author and moved in with Richard Simmons. Freedom First is now their sassy man-servant…”
*******************************************

WHY did I read this?
“sassy man servant”
Ugh.
My eyes are burning.
The visuals are truly disturbing and will require years of therapy.
I’ll never look at Richard Simmons reruns the same way again…..ever

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.17 at 1:22 am

@#71 Brian.
“I noticed you quote anecdotal info when it suits your position, yet anecdotes about HAM go ignored.”
*******************************************

You can always go hang out with “Vancouver Dudes”

Just Google somewhere between “racist” and “regurgitate”….

He’ll find you.

#79 Goober on 04.10.17 at 1:25 am

Garth, as a former journalist, you might cringe when you hear the CBC reporter call Ryan as “Brian” for her last question. Either Ryan didn’t catch her mispronounce his name or (more likely) she did her cutaway question after the interview was over and she couldn’t remember the name of the person she was just interviewing.

#80 Goober on 04.10.17 at 1:37 am

Garth – Wondering if the CBC conducted the interview in your Scotia Tower offices since they didn’t give away the name of where Ryan works. If so, pretty swanky digs. Gives us non-GTA blog dogs a chance to see where the big dogs hang their FCSI certificates. Sure beats the office of my local financial advisor – he definitely doesn’t have a waterfall feature in his office.

#81 DON on 04.10.17 at 1:53 am

#7 farnam mohasseb on 04.09.17 at 5:01 pm

Vancouver had that rout last year of “correction” yet townhouses and condo and almost anything less than a 1M is still increasing in value…

Who cares about number of sales when prices go up fast on low inventory and sticky as hell on a way down.

Even Calgary with crushed job market did not crash in a meaningful way
************

Yet.

That’s why they say history rhymes. The show ain’t over and positive thinking doesn’t matter at this point – the hangover is coming. Not everyone profits in a ponzi scheme. Things take time to play out.

#82 The Gouch on 04.10.17 at 2:03 am

TO RE will continue it’s upward escalation in price. Super low interest rates, CMHC, massive immigration, foreign speculators. All this skews the demand portion of the equation towards higher prices. Nothing will change until there is a major economic collapse of some sort in Canada.

#83 DON on 04.10.17 at 2:04 am

#70 Pre-retiree on 04.09.17 at 11:08 pm

Interesting stories today and in “Maybe, part deux”, giving hope that maybe the bubble is indeed deflating. However, these stories remain anecdotal. If true, the evidence will not be apparent until perhaps the end of the summer.
**************
Signs, signs everywhere signs.

#84 DON on 04.10.17 at 2:08 am

#39 Renting in Toronto on 04.09.17 at 7:47 pm

Forever .

Signed ,

I’m an idiot for not buying 8 years ago
************************
It’s late hopefully I get this right.

If you had bought 8 years ago, you might be in a house today or sold and bought a bigger house and may even have bought additional investment properties never cashing in and then having to rush to the exit with debt on your back. Sometimes coming out even is a win – win, having good credit in bad times comes in handy.

#85 dakkie on 04.10.17 at 5:30 am

The Canadian Economy Is Doomed! – Experts Say Canada Is On The Verge of A Major Financial Crisis

http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-canadian-economy-is-doomed-experts-say-canada-is-on-the-verge-of-a-major-financial-crisis/

#86 maxx on 04.10.17 at 6:59 am

“The running of the saps.”

Very clever.

#87 Prescience on 04.10.17 at 7:21 am

“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
― H.L. Mencken, On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe

“No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.

“The mistake that is made always runs the other way. Because the plain people are able to speak and understand, and even, in many cases, to read and write, it is assumed that they have ideas in their heads, and an appetite for more. This assumption is a folly.”
― H.L. Mencken, “Notes on Journalism,” Chicago Daily Tribune, Sept. 19, 1926

#88 Dominoes Lining Up on 04.10.17 at 8:09 am

Some compelling numbers about where our “special” Ontario economy may be headed:

Tesla’s market cap now exceeds that of Ford, at 47.8 Billion, just slightly behind GM’s 50.9 Billion. (How many more days til that changes?)

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/03/tesla-shares-surge-to-all-time-high-pushing-its-market-cap-past-fords.html

Even though its production is under 1% of its competition.

Is there any reason to believe Tesla will manufacture its cars in Detroit, Windsor, Oakville, Oshawa etc…?

Of course not. Why would they? And wherever they are, you can be sure that robotics will be doing most of the work in the years ahead.

Could Ontario give away enough tax incentives/corporate welfare to make this likely?

How? Ontario is horrifically broke right now, and Canada has borrowed to the gills.

Is it possible this domino could create a much bigger economic downwind for Ontario?

Perhaps dropping house prices in the GTA by much higher margins, maybe 80-90%……….

Where will the replacement jobs be for Ontario auto workers?

Agriculture? Real estate? Uber?

Ontario, meet your soul sister:

Alabama.

#89 Stock Picker on 04.10.17 at 8:17 am

Two points. The new luxury auto market shows that new real estate millionaires are feeling the wealth effect and are gobbling up nine year leases like never before. In fact Ford is crying uncle issuing a statement saying they won’t extend any more of the ultra long loans. That can only be another way of saying their delinquency rates are building.

Second. A new poll published in the MP states that 54% of Canadians say real estate will never go down.

I would suspect banks have called a great many HELOCs and issued fewer for the same reason as Ford. We already know that personal credit card stats are through the roof. So, as far as people not spending on big ticket items I say otherwise. My call is for a very robust future in the high risk lending market as rates creep up.

#90 jess on 04.10.17 at 8:25 am

nerve toxins

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cartels-growing-marijuana-illegally-california-194700553.html

#91 NoName on 04.10.17 at 8:36 am

Sleep today is a measure of success, a skill to be cultivated and nourished. I can not agree more.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/08/fashion/sleep-tips-and-tools.html?_r=0&referer=https://news.ycombinator.com/

#92 jess on 04.10.17 at 8:41 am

Spanish police have arrested a Russian programmer for alleged involvement in “hacking” the US election, Spanish press reports have said.

Pyotr Levashov, arrested on 7 April in Barcelona, has now been remanded in custody.

A “legal source” also told the AFP news agency that Mr Levashov was the subject of an extradition request by the US. (bbc)

https://krebsonsecurity.com/2017/04/alleged-spam-king-pyotr-levashov-arrested/

#93 Grey Dog on 04.10.17 at 8:42 am

True Story; friend living in Varley section (1960s tract housing) in Unionville, got a knock on his door Thursday night, a real estate agent states he has someone in his car who is interested in buying his house on the spot, but first the potential buyer wanted to stand in his home to see whether it has “good vibes”, so this stranger in car, stands in the foyer, yup offered to purchase for 2M$! Family did NOT accept, cause “where would we go”? (Of note, other homes in the area have been selling for 1.7/8 this past winter).

#94 TurnerNation on 04.10.17 at 8:42 am

– We shall wear yellow and grey (the color of his teeth) armbands for Smokie’s absence.

– Today’s condo joke. $400k on King St. west party strip for a teeny “1 bedroom”.
– Building has no parking at all
– And as is typical with today’s “Agenda 21” and UN-Mandated housing you sit watching your kitchen stove from your ‘living’ room couch! Check the 2nd photo.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18003488/505—508-WELLINGTON-Street-Toronto-Ontario-M5V1E3-Waterfront-Communities-C1

(Condo are for renting…not buying unless you have an edge as a pre-construction flipper with VIP access to good suites – but those days were more 5 years ago)

#95 Penny Henny on 04.10.17 at 9:13 am

maybe I will head down to Schlongbranch and pay a visit to the Smoking Man.

In my head I am picturing the scene from Apocalypse Now, the one with Marlin Brando.

#96 NoName on 04.10.17 at 9:21 am

#87 Dominoes Lining Up on 04.10.17 at 8:09 am

Have to admit I always felt like there is something sinister about Tesla, especially when I started reading abut elon s meetings with trump around election time.

http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/tesla-tsla-short-vilas/?all=1

“Tesla, Inc. is an over-hyped, lousy company, from a financial perspective, that is destined to go bankrupt. There, I said it. Bring on the critics. Contrary to the likely barbs and pitchforks we will receive, I do wish that global warming was not occurring and that the polar bears and penguins could live undisturbed in their former environments.”

#97 Aliens in Ecuador on 04.10.17 at 10:02 am

He’s made it to Ecuador. Living Of the royalties of his first massive best seller and the offshore forex billions. Commies lesbians and SJWs look out. Whether FF has become his sassy man servant are only rumours at this stage. Long may he run.

“Hammering out my next book in Equidor.” @SmokingMan

#98 eurovision on 04.10.17 at 10:34 am

1mil is the new 100k!

#99 pBrasseur on 04.10.17 at 10:50 am

Apparently this GTA bubble will never pop because :

A) Toronto is a desirable world class city like Paris, NY, and London, hell it even has a basketball team, what’s not to like?

B) You got to live somewhere (as oppose to many other places where you don’t have to live anywhere).

So there you have it, go back to sleep now.

#100 AfterTheHouseSold on 04.10.17 at 10:53 am

#87 Dominoes Lining Up
Re: Ontario auto workers, jobs and real estate.

Ford is 3-D printing car parts
“A robotic arm can replace the raw material when needed, allowing for the machine to operate unattended for several days, Ford said.”

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/06/ford-3d-printing-car-parts-which-could-mean-more-customized-vehicles.html

Or this, being built now, not some far off distant future. It can be built above existing transportation routes, you can live hundreds of miles away from overpriced cities/real estate and be at work in minutes.

http://hyperloop-one.com/

#101 Dollarama Nation on 04.10.17 at 11:18 am

#93 TurnerNation on 04.10.17 at 8:42 am

– We shall wear yellow and grey (the color of his teeth) armbands for Smokie’s absence.

– Today’s condo joke. $400k on King St. west party strip for a teeny “1 bedroom”.
– Building has no parking at all
– And as is typical with today’s “Agenda 21” and UN-Mandated housing you sit watching your kitchen stove from your ‘living’ room couch! Check the 2nd photo.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18003488/505—508-WELLINGTON-Street-Toronto-Ontario-M5V1E3-Waterfront-Communities-C1

(Condo are for renting…not buying unless you have an edge as a pre-construction flipper with VIP access to good suites – but those days were more 5 years ago)
..

Hilarious…..A couch in the kitchen for $400k

#102 Ole Doberman on 04.10.17 at 11:19 am

#67 Rich Young on 04.09.17 at 10:34 pm

@ Cowtown please read ” Based on My calculations ”

I’m in exterior construction and hook people up with banks to complete renovations they can not afford. One person @ one major bank told me they are releasing 80 foreclosures this spring. Two Alberta based institutions are holding a pile of non performing loans. This is my estimate as I indicated in my post. Sold my home and am renting a super small place in NW Calgary and socking away cash patiently waiting for this increased listing activity. If you have a house to sell it is best to get ahead of this wave. Banks can not hold these loans forever as they increase in size each month without any payment going against them. Some people are also on interest only payments. This is going to start to turn ugly this spring and by this Fall we should see more for sale than can be absorbed. My hood is now starting to see new listings pop up and none of the old listings have sold. The foreclosure behind our place has since been bought from ScotiaBank
——————————————————-
What hood are you in?

In Varsity NW houses still only take 1-2 months to sell, We’ll see if this changes in the spring/fall.

#103 Boombust on 04.10.17 at 11:23 am

Ross Kay has been correct about price declines in Vancouver. His observations re” “the flight to quality” are bang on. $!M buys a LOT nicer house today than it did one year ago.

#104 For those about to flop... on 04.10.17 at 11:25 am

When I was looking at a few listings last night to see what was happening in my hood , I realized that the half decent looking house on Fraser st that I featured last week for the “I don’t have a million crowd ” was gone.

Upon further investigation as to what was happening at the bottom end of the detached market in Vancouver,I was surprised to see that of the 29 houses for sale in Vancouver proper under 1.2m a whopping 8 of these had price reductions,meaning that the scraps of the city are not getting gobbled up.

There are condos in certain areas going for the same price….no dirt …..all pain…

M42BC

#105 jess on 04.10.17 at 12:05 pm

Companies are using an insolvency practice to offload £3.8 billion of pension liabilities, with many schemes falling on the pension lifeboat fund as part of a sale to the firm’s directors.
http://citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/news/sound-familiar-firms-use-pre-packs-to-dump-3-8bn-pension-liabilities/a1007520?ref=new-model-adviser-most-popular-list

#106 Damifino on 04.10.17 at 12:25 pm

#99 AfterTheHouseSold

I agree that 3-D printing is a marvellous thing but I don’t believe it will entirely, or even significantly, do away with traditional manufacturing methods. Many parts may be designed and tested with 3-D but in most cases parts will be moulded, extruded, forged and stamped out the same old faster and cheaper way. I doubt there will ever be a 3-D printer that can pop out, say, an entire 5 horsepower brush-less DC motor complete with hardened bearings and wound coils.

As far as hyperloop is concerned, it’s misguided. They get full marks for producing a flashy video but as the grand singularity approaches it will become increasingly less important to transport humans (i.e. fragile bags of flesh and blood) back and forth over large stretches of the Australian outback on a daily basis. It’s a wrong-headed application of super technology to an outmoded concept. A huge money pit. Investors beware.

#107 JohnnyBoy on 04.10.17 at 12:27 pm

#96 Aliens in Ecuador on 04.10.17 at 10:02 am

He’s made it to Ecuador. Living Of the royalties of his first massive best seller and the offshore forex billions. Commies lesbians and SJWs look out. Whether FF has become his sassy man servant are only rumours at this stage. Long may he run.

“Hammering out my next book in Equidor.” @SmokingMan
——————————————————–
My thoughts on him are as follows.
A, He is at his imaginary cottage in the Muskokas’
B, He is adrift in his imaginary boat on Lake Ontario still looking for God.
C, He has run off with his longtime girlfriend Shirley Valentine. The Hag of a wife found out and it was curtains.
D, He is still drunk in his basement in ShlongBranch.
E, He is downtown prostituting himself as a code smith begging for mercy from his previous employers.
F, He is sitting in a jail in New York for being an Illegal Alien.
G, He is an Alien and he has been called back to Ork. Nanu, nanu Smoking guy.

#108 TurnerNation on 04.10.17 at 12:41 pm

You are free to leave at any time?
Hard work brings freedom?

Our global rulers the Elite bankers have Kanadians trapped in their homes and debt cycle. As planned.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/cibc-housing-survery-1.4063470

#109 traderJim on 04.10.17 at 12:48 pm

@whiny james posted this, again, lol

“Well, smoking idiot just said this:

“This confirms to me LANDSLIDE for TRUMP
You will all be shocked tomorrow”

So, my little emasculated turd cowering in Stephen Harper’s closet, why not put your money where your mouth is!?!

Trump wins, I stop posting here, never to return.

Hillary wins, you do likewise.”

We really didn’t need to be reminded that Smokey is far more intelligent than you and was right where you were dead wrong. Not to mention he has a sense of humour.

#110 jess on 04.10.17 at 1:13 pm

FDA approves 23andme
http://www.popsci.com/23andme-is-probably-terrible-idea#page-4

….”23andMe assures customers that all their information is completely anonymized. Of course they would never, ever break that rule. Except that even if they don’t, it turns out you can find out a man’s last name using only the short repeats on his Y chromosome and access to a genealogy database. Oh, and then you can identify his age and which state he lives in using publicly accessible resources. But other than that, it’s totally anonymous.
======================
Abstract

Sharing sequencing data sets without identifiers has become a common practice in genomics. Here, we report that surnames can be recovered from personal genomes by profiling short tandem repeats on the Y chromosome (Y-STRs) and querying recreational genetic genealogy databases. We show that a combination of a surname with other types of metadata, such as age and state, can be used to triangulate the identity of the target. A key feature of this technique is that it entirely relies on free, publicly accessible Internet resources. We quantitatively analyze the probability of identification for U.S. males. We further demonstrate the feasibility of this technique by tracing back with high probability the identities of multiple participants in public sequencing projects.

By applying an algorithm to anonymized genomes from a research database and doing some online sleuthing with popular genealogy Web sites, researchers were able to guess the true identities of DNA donors. Privacy concerns have been raised about publicly accessible genome data before, and managers of a popular repository were aware of the risks posed, but few people had guessed how easy deanonymizing the data was. As genealogy databases and other resources improve, how can individuals be protected, and what are the implications?

#111 TurnerNation on 04.10.17 at 1:25 pm

BONUS condo joke today.

1 million for a Toronto condo without windows!
Just tiny ones over head..
Stare at brick wall or tiny stream of light above -just like a prison cell!!

(In Soviet Kanada condo imprison you)

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17929937/412—81-FRONT-Street-Toronto-Ontario-M5E1B8-Waterfront-Communities-C8

#112 3s on 04.10.17 at 1:30 pm

These guys didn’t the memo that HAM has little impact;) It’s the cheap credit dumbo (turbo charging the HAM;) Whoaaaa! LOL.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/opinion/offshore-money-bane-of-democracy.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0

#113 Ron on 04.10.17 at 1:42 pm

So what’s your definition of a foreign buyer?

What about a landed immigrant who pays absurd cash sums for real estate?

For all intents and purposes I would consider that to be a foreign buyer. Do you?

Get over it. Worry about what you can control in your life. — Garth

#114 Ron on 04.10.17 at 1:49 pm

#93 TurnerNation on 04.10.17 at 8:42 am

– We shall wear yellow and grey (the color of his teeth) armbands for Smokie’s absence.

– Today’s condo joke. $400k on King St. west party strip for a teeny “1 bedroom”.
– Building has no parking at all
– And as is typical with today’s “Agenda 21” and UN-Mandated housing you sit watching your kitchen stove from your ‘living’ room couch! Check the 2nd photo.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18003488/505—508-WELLINGTON-Street-Toronto-Ontario-M5V1E3-Waterfront-Communities-C1

(Condo are for renting…not buying unless you have an edge as a pre-construction flipper with VIP access to good suites – but those days were more 5 years ago)
..

Hilarious…..A couch in the kitchen for $400k

—————————–

I bought a similar condo in Midtown Manhattan several years ago for about $450k CAD. Prices are up since then, but you can still get a comparable place north of Central Park for this price.

#115 Ron on 04.10.17 at 1:53 pm

I would add that while Manhattan is still pricier than downtown Toronto, if you go 30-40 minutes out (Brooklyn, Queens, New Jersey) prices are comparable to north Toronto and the near 905.

#116 Drunken Aliens in Kitchener/Ecuador on 04.10.17 at 1:57 pm

#106 JohnnyBoy on 04.10.17 at 12:27 pm

#96 Aliens in Ecuador on 04.10.17 at 10:02 am

He’s made it to Ecuador. Living Of the royalties of his first massive best seller and the offshore forex billions. Commies lesbians and SJWs look out. Whether FF has become his sassy man servant are only rumours at this stage. Long may he run.

“Hammering out my next book in Equidor.” @SmokingMan
——————————————————–
My thoughts on him are as follows.
A, He is at his imaginary cottage in the Muskokas’
B, He is adrift in his imaginary boat on Lake Ontario still looking for God.
C, He has run off with his longtime girlfriend Shirley Valentine. The Hag of a wife found out and it was curtains.
D, He is still drunk in his basement in ShlongBranch.
E, He is downtown prostituting himself as a code smith begging for mercy from his previous employers.
F, He is sitting in a jail in New York for being an Illegal Alien.
G, He is an Alien and he has been called back to Ork. Nanu, nanu Smoking guy.

He has found alien nirvana in Kitchener… close enough to Ecuador !! LOL

“Hammering out my next book in Equidor.” by @SmokingMan
7:26 AM – 10 Apr 2017 from Kitchener, Ontario

#117 bill on 04.10.17 at 2:01 pm

#94 Penny Henny on 04.10.17 at 9:13 am
the scene where brando asks sheen if his ‘methods are unsound….] ??
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdNsltQXTVU

#118 jess on 04.10.17 at 2:47 pm

a company called Malabu, which was controlled by Dan Etete.

British court will on Tuesday, December 15, decide whether $85 million (N17 billion) frozen by UK authorities should be released to a fraudulent company, Malabu Oil and Gas, controlled by ex-convict, Dan Etete.

PREMIUM TIMES had reported on the deal, enmeshed in various layers of corruption, and currently under investigation by authorities in four countries from three continents.

timeline
https://i1.wp.com/media.premiumtimesng.com/wp-content/files/2015/12/Summary-of-Malabus-history.png

Internal Shell emails seen by Finance Uncovered and Global Witness show how the world’s fifth biggest company took part in a scheme which deprived Nigeria and its people of $1.1 billion in a murky deal for access to one of Africa’s most valuable oil blocks, known as OPL 245.

https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/oil-gas-and-mining/shell-knew/
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39544761
=====

#119 Pre-retiree on 04.10.17 at 2:55 pm

Taken from the National Post:
“Almost half of homeowners are also worried that government policy to tame the hot housing market will lower prices”

And why would you try to tame the market and leave the prices where they are????

#120 JohnnyBoy on 04.10.17 at 2:56 pm

#115 Drunken Aliens in Kitchener/Ecuador on 04.10.17 at 1:57 pm
……..
He has found alien nirvana in Kitchener… close enough to Ecuador !! LOL

“Hammering out my next book in Equidor.” by @SmokingMan
7:26 AM – 10 Apr 2017 from Kitchener, Ontario
—————————————————
Sure works for me, Kitchener, Ecuador whats the difference? But in all seriousness Kitchener now that place is a sorry example for monotonous, stuffy, tedious, tiresome and uninteresting things to not happen. What is there a barn fire to write about?

#121 Rexx Rock on 04.10.17 at 3:16 pm

The perfect storm!!Low rates forever,strong wage and job growth,low inventory of houses in GTA and easy money baby just flipping crap!!Great times in GTA and Victoria.

#122 Steve French on 04.10.17 at 3:48 pm

Who shot Smoking Man?!!

Steve O

#123 Penny Henny on 04.10.17 at 3:55 pm

Kathleen Wynne to announce measures to make housing more affordable.
-rent control?
-no interest loans for first time home buyers?
-higher land transfer tax if it not a principle residence?

#124 Lee on 04.10.17 at 4:03 pm

What do people think about blockchain/bitcoin technology? I know it has been mentioned before on this blog but is anyone actually transacting business and buying real things with it?

#125 Nick's nickel's worth on 04.10.17 at 4:03 pm

Steve French on 04.10.17 at 3:48 pm
Who shot Smoking Man?!!

Steve O
———————-
Who cares. Ignorant sot.
Newsflash: peak house in rearview.
QP to implement measures.

#126 A Reply to #121 Steve French on 04.10.17 at 4:35 pm

How many shots (of Jack Daniel’s) did him in?

Maybe we should have staged an intervention.

#127 Victor V on 04.10.17 at 4:36 pm

This bungalow near Victoria Park and Ellesmere just increased its list price by $799k. New price: $2,188,000.

http://imgur.com/a/pkCeO

#128 Ole Doberman on 04.10.17 at 5:03 pm

Looks like another 10 University condo rentals on the market – now 37 total.

Gartho when are you doing an update on Calgary?

#129 X on 04.10.17 at 5:18 pm

Was reading Wynne is planning on implementing/doing something regarding the RE valuations….please no more taxes, please no taxpayers money to help buyers.

The more the gov’t seems to help the more things get screwed up.

#130 ‘Full-blown housing bubble’ on 04.10.17 at 5:32 pm

“Madani said a confluence of the rising prices and expectations for higher interest rates is causing the skittishness for millennials.

“’You see panic starting to creep in at the lower end of the market,’ he said. ‘When you look at the younger homebuyers who are already fairly cash-flow poor, regret is starting to sink in because they realize they’re cash-flow constrained and also worried that at some point interest rates might begin to go up.’

“There’s definitely concerns creeping in to confidence levels of Canadian households.”

http://www.bnn.ca/full-blown-housing-bubble-economist-alarmed-by-view-of-never-ending-price-gains-1.720189

#131 Aliens in Ecuador on the run on 04.10.17 at 5:41 pm

Our resident drunken alien should actually read Hemingway …seeing as he now thinks he’s the next Hemingway. !!! He’s gone old school typewriter pounding the keys of drunken truths.

“Always do sober what you said you’d do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut.”

#132 jess on 04.10.17 at 5:44 pm

All 36 bank domains were under the attackers’ control, including the online, mobile, point-of-sale, financing and acquisitions, and more.

“All domains, including corporate domains, were in control of the bad guy,” Assolini said, adding that the attackers also were inside the corporate email infrastructure and shut it down, preventing the bank from informing customers of the attack or contacting their registrar and DNS provider.

Assolini, a native Brazilian, said the bank was founded in the early 20th Century and manages 500 branches in Brazil, the U.S., Argentina and Grand Cayman; there are 5 million customers and $25 billion in assets under the bank’s control.

Pulling the malware apart, the researchers found eight modules, including configuration files with bank URLs, update modules, credential-stealing modules for Microsoft Exchange, Thunderbird, and the local address book, and internet banking control and decryption modules. All of the modules, the researchers said, were talking to a command and control server in Canada.

https://threatpost.com/lessons-from-top-to-bottom-compromise-of-brazilian-bank/124770/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banrisul

#133 Kool Aid on 04.10.17 at 5:52 pm

“Will central banks the world over continue to expand their respective balance sheets”? My guess is no.

More cheap money in the pipe? Likely not, though these markets are dubious in proving logical consensus wrong.

CAPPED money supply & higher interest rates for here in out?

US planning 3 hikes this year, though weakening domestic fundamentals may thwart planned path.

Possibly a generational RE PROPERTY PRICE PEAK in Canada, should mortgage interest rise even 1% in the next few quarters.

A 2% mortgage interest rise will make it feel like 1982 all over again.

No one every went broke taking profit, take it while you can.

When mortgage interest rates breakout, housing prices will break down.

I doubt the province will engage any drastic measures, surely the optics will be clear, and the math & logic fuzzy.

What if….

Capital gains inclusions for second properties posted at 100% of profits being taxable, that would be interesting.

#134 Newsbyte: April 11 - Wishpad on 04.11.17 at 6:02 am

[…] afraid of interest rates spiking and leaving them underwater, and they’d rather rent. (Music to Garth Turner’s ears.) If these figures taken from a nation-wide survey do in fact apply to younger homeowners in this […]