1.4 billion people can’t be wrong

DOUG By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

Two thousand and fifteen. Those were dark days. The oil price plunged more than 30%, sending our country into recession, and the S&P/TSX Composite dropped 11%, making our market amongst the world’s worst performing. One of the main causes: concern over a China slowdown. While these China fears briefly persisted into 2016, they quickly dissipated. Despite the usual hysterical predictions, China’s economic growth actually barely slowed and it certainly didn’t grind the global economy to a halt as many expected. You might recall Royal Bank of Scotland in January 2016 saying that 2016 would be a “cataclysmic year” with stock markets falling by up to 20% and oil falling to US$16/barrel with China being a key cause. Oops.

China, once again, proved more resilient than many strategists and economists imagined.

Naturally, China is volatile, as are all emerging markets, but its economy is still strong and, we believe, poses little danger to the global economy or to long-term investors. (Yeah, I might eat my words, but that’s what we get paid to do: put it out there.)

The bullish China argument is well established, but it bears repeating. The Chinese want all the ridiculous stuff that Westerners want: big screen TVs, state-of-the-art smartphones, 18-year-old Scotches, Porsches (if Ryan can have one, why shouldn’t your average Chinese consumer?), fancy threads, newly built homes and so on. And the root cause of this new materialism is the country’s rapid transition from an agricultural and rural economy to an industrial and urban one.

Nobel laureate Simon Kuznets noted that a Chinese worker who moves from the farm to the city increases his or her contribution to the economy fivefold. And the average salary of a Chinese urban worker is currently about three times that of a rural worker, so you can see the appeal of making the move to the big city. Carl Weinberg of Barron’s also notes that:

Last year, China moved 17 million people from farms to cities, a pace that has varied by 12 million to 22 million per year over the past decades. With 590 million people remaining in rural areas, plenty of scope remains for this migration to continue—and surely there are enough 15- to 30-year-olds to move, despite the one-child-policy experiment. Demographic dividends can and will support modernization.

China’s also a confident country. Credit Suisse each year conducts an exhaustive emerging markets consumer survey and the results of its most recent one are supportive of our positive view. Given higher job security, a low unemployment rate and stable income growth, Chinese consumers are willing to spend:

Overall, consumers are spending more on big ticket items and services such as education, cars, property and mobile phones…. It is clear that, as consumers become wealthier, they want to upgrade their lifestyles and spending on more large ticket items that have longer life spans versus the traditional fast-moving consumer goods with a low ticket size. The above behavior change is supported by higher income as well as the expectation of higher household income in the next 12 months.

This consumer confidence is important as the Chinese keep around 30% of their income in savings, so if they become more willing to spend, these funds will begin to filter into the economy. The Chinese are also young and, like it or not, young workers are more productive than older workers. Young, populous, confident, increasingly urban and with money coming off the sidelines—talk about the ideal scenario for supporting robust long-term economic growth.

China Mobile Customer Baes (Millions): Rapidly Connecting its 4G Network in 2013.

Source: China Mobile (CM officially launched its 4G network in 2013)

And how will this sidelined money filter into the economy? Much of it will come via technology investment and adoption. Credit Suisse, for example, predicts China’s online sales will grow by more than 20% y-o-y in 2017–2018, accounting for 15–20% of China’s total retail sales in 2017 (up from 10% in 2014). We also know that China has rapidly adopted wireless technology, but equally important, it’s becoming increasingly connected to the most advanced wireless platform—4G. China Mobile, for example, the country’s largest telecom company, currently has 559 million customers on its 4G network—a staggering 521% increase over 2014 levels. Reportedly, China has adopted 4G at a faster rate than both Japan and the US; two of the world’s most advanced countries. This bodes well for China’s adoption of 5G, which will be the standard in the coming decade. 5G is an ultra-reliable and powerful network that can handle such demanding applications as the ‘Internet of things’ and self-driving cars. More sophisticated connectivity is a sure sign of a healthy economy.

Now, there’s clearly an issue of trust when it comes to China. No one, for instance, believes its data is transparent. However, next week Ryan will highlight the Chinese economic numbers that are the most difficult to fudge, and therefore the most reliable and valid. These are the numbers that we rely on and they paint a pretty attractive picture also.

So, it’s a collaborative look at China. Ryan and I do talk, in case you were wondering—we’re not just two Porsches passing in the night.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

103 comments ↓

#1 TLG on 04.08.17 at 1:59 pm

Good post. It explains why China has been able to buy up the West Coast of Canada.

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.08.17 at 2:09 pm

“The bullish China argument is well established, but it bears repeating.”
Instant classic.

#3 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.08.17 at 2:14 pm

The Chinese are a hardworking bunch, that’s for sure.
And smart, on top of it.
And they worship at the altar of Mamom.
Learn Mandarin, my friends.

#4 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.08.17 at 2:25 pm

My wife just came back from rural China visiting relatives.
Sure, things have improved. But with all the young gone, things are tough for the elderly.
Nothing to do. Alzheimer is taking its toll.
600 million below the poverty line.
Forget the Porsche, a bowl of rice is all they want.

#5 Dan.t on 04.08.17 at 2:29 pm

It’s ok, china will own BC soon. Christy Clark will make sure of it. As long as she gets her cut.

#6 Sir James on 04.08.17 at 2:30 pm

The only way a nation of free people can compete with a nation of slaves, is to become slaves themselves.

#7 pathcontrolmonk on 04.08.17 at 2:43 pm

Ooooh China shilling, how original.

#8 Entrepreneur on 04.08.17 at 2:57 pm

Trusting a communist country for any information is naïve in thinking. The only time they are agreeable is when they can advance (material gadgets now but what next?).

When three Chinese ships docked in Victoria my hairs on the back of neck stood up, too close for me. For whatever reason they gave and we accepted was an uncomfortable feeling that we are been played.

Am I cautious in thinking, am I paranoid, but look at Russia with Putin now. A communist leader will turn on a dime, hypertension or what. And I guess my thinking comes from how communist think.

Wonder how that 26 year old protestor organizer made out in a 15 day jail sentence? Will google it.

Hope I am not first, lol.

#9 Northwind on 04.08.17 at 3:04 pm

hi, Doug, Garth, and others,

Sorry for the digression, but could any one tell me how to impeach Mr Poloz? I think what he did and what he said caused big harm to Canada. It is clear that he does not have the ability and moral standards to be the governor of Bank of Canada, and should be removed from the position, and I just want to know how.

If you look back, everything he did since he become the governor is counterproductive. You won’t believe that just a few days ago, facing with the rampant real estate speculation in this country, he is so shameless to claim that it is not related to his monetary policy? Can anybody find any ability to make judgement from this guy? Can you tolerate that our banking system is governed by such as moron? It is a shame to this country.

#10 Gasbag Boomer on 04.08.17 at 3:07 pm

Thanks Doug. Maybe Smoking Man has opened a cell phone kiosk in a Shanghai shopping mall?

#11 mark on 04.08.17 at 3:11 pm

Nice article Doug,
With Emerging markets playing a bigger roll globally, should they not be weighted more in a balanced portfolio, it seems to me that 10 percent is way underweighted?
What would you suggest for a aggressive allocation?

Thanks in advance.

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.08.17 at 3:24 pm

Now if only we could get China’s middle class to stop buying endangered Rhino horn, elephant tusks, rare giant clams, shark fin soup, etc.,etc., etc., ….there might be hope for the endangered animals on this planet yet…….

#13 TurnerNation on 04.08.17 at 3:39 pm

Re. where is Smoking Man. I see our forum host Twittered with him. (Oh the ignominy!)

(Keep your friends close and your enmities even closer?)

To (T)wit:

“Smoking Mans Ghost‏ @SmokingMan Apr 4
Replying to @garthturner
fair enough. Hoping to list on the week end. I’ll get a new IP then. Where, no idea where to go.”

#14 Shawn on 04.08.17 at 3:43 pm

Nice post Mr. Rowat.

What allocation to emerging markets would you recommend in a diversified portfolio? 5-10%?

Does your firm normally use Canadian Domiciled ETFs (i.e. XEC, VEE) or roll with US ETFs?

Finally, emerging markets are always deemed inefficient. Would active management make sense in some cases?

#15 How about more than 1.4 billion? on 04.08.17 at 3:46 pm

The Chinese want all the ridiculous stuff that Westerners want.

Why single out 1.4 billion Chinese?

All the 7 billion+ plus people want it who does not have it yet. Which leaves much more than 1.4 billion.

Late comers always adapt technology faster when catching up, this happened with telecom in Eastern-Europe, which went from 5 years wait list for a phone line to better mobile service than Canada has in no time.

They also operate fast, driverless subway lines, with full mobile phone coverage for years now, something that the world-class Toronto can only dream about – today.

Our biggest problem is not China – it is Canada, our slow pace of adaptation technologies, their non-competitive price that is one of the most expensive in the world, our inability to turn resources into high value added products, instead of selling them raw to countries like China, creating colonial-style dependency.

Maybe this is what one of the future articles should take a look.

As Garth keeps mentioning here all the time: let’s worry about things that you can change. We can’t change China.

#16 Spaccone on 04.08.17 at 3:56 pm

From a timing perspective, to me it looks like China ETFs will be taking a breather for a while. Of course I’m wrong half the time and thankful I have a balanced portfolio.

#17 Doug Rowat on 04.08.17 at 4:41 pm

#15 How about more than 1.4 billion? on 04.08.17 at 3:46 pm

Our biggest problem is not China – it is Canada…

Maybe this is what one of the future articles should take a look.

As Garth keeps mentioning here all the time: let’s worry about things that you can change. We can’t change China.

Of course you can’t change China. But you can own it, and if you own it you better have an opinion as to why.

–Doug

#18 Figmund Sreud on 04.08.17 at 4:42 pm

China, once again, proved more resilient than many strategists and economists imagined.
___________________________

Don’t say! Especially if you look at numbers and not just Yankee $s as related to China: … numbers associated with MWs, bbls, tons, TJs, et al.! Production of, imports of and consumption of.

Anyway, … there is actually lot more to China: … Eurasian Integration! [ … think The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road ]

It’s true, … the Pentagon, for example, ranks Russia-China as the top existential threats to the Trumplandia, … hence strong insistance to Hair Furor that the only possible strategy forward – to have a shot at maintaining some pre-eminence – is to Divide and Rule. [ … think current emphasis on Sinophobia, Russophobia. ]

Best,

F.S. – Comox, BC.

#19 Questions on 04.08.17 at 4:48 pm

Surprised how flat China Mobile’s stock has been over the past 5yrs. Thoughts as to why?

#20 Smoked alien on 04.08.17 at 4:49 pm

#13 TurnerNation on 04.08.17 at 3:39 pm
Re. where is Smoking Man. I see our forum host Twittered with him. (Oh the ignominy!)

(Keep your friends close and your enmities even closer?)

To (T)wit:

“Smoking Mans Ghost‏ @SmokingMan Apr 4
Replying to @garthturner
fair enough. Hoping to list on the week end. I’ll get a new IP then. Where, no idea where to go.”
..

He’s been completely liquified and expunged from the blog history. The drunken smoked alien is no more. Must have gone on an undercover mission for trump.

#21 Arto on 04.08.17 at 5:08 pm

They said the same thing about Japan in the 80s until debt and bad demographics brought it down. Look at Japan today. Thirty years of deflation. Same for China. Their growth is based on ever increasing debt and the one-child policy up-ended their demographics.

#22 Contrarian Coyote on 04.08.17 at 5:22 pm

#15 How about more than 1.4 billion? on 04.08.17 at 3:46 pm
The Chinese want all the ridiculous stuff that Westerners want.

Why single out 1.4 billion Chinese?

All the 7 billion+ plus people want it who does not have it yet. Which leaves much more than 1.4 billion.

Late comers always adapt technology faster when catching up, this happened with telecom in Eastern-Europe, which went from 5 years wait list for a phone line to better mobile service than Canada has in no time.

They also operate fast, driverless subway lines, with full mobile phone coverage for years now, something that the world-class Toronto can only dream about – today.

Our biggest problem is not China – it is Canada, our slow pace of adaptation technologies, their non-competitive price that is one of the most expensive in the world, our inability to turn resources into high value added products, instead of selling them raw to countries like China, creating colonial-style dependency.

Maybe this is what one of the future articles should take a look.

As Garth keeps mentioning here all the time: let’s worry about things that you can change. We can’t change China.

===

Completely agree. Although I wasn’t in China, I was in South Korea from 2003 -2014 and saw economic development and pace of change that would make many Canadians’ heads spin. That pace of change doesn’t come without problems & challenges, but the mentality of the people is almost automatically: “We can do this, we totally got this.”

One thing at O’Leary mentioned that resonated with me was how some in Canada seems to tolerate mediocrity. I will never vote for him as a CPC member, but I completely agree with him on this point. I dealt a lot with managers from China, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Malaysia and they were always so positive and forward-thinking. Sometimes, they have got too far ahead of themselves on projects and HQ would have to rein them in a bit, but it was great to partner with management like that.

So, what can we change here? First of all, stop electing pols based in selfies & sunny ways. Second, de-regulate & lower taxes to free up some initiative from our entrepreneurs. It’s all been said before and it seems like a recurring theme, fighting back against encroaching government regulation that is ravenous for revenue to fund ‘projects’ to they can do photo-ops of MPs handing out giant cheques across the country.

#23 Long-Time Lurker on 04.08.17 at 5:39 pm

It’s tough to get genuine numbers out of China so only some generalizations can be made.

China probably only has low to moderate growth along with the rest of the world since they’re exporters.

Their financial-economic situation is undoubtedly rife with corruption because the populace is always protesting this.

Since they have a semi-central-communist-command economy, their is probably plenty of capital misallocation and bad loans.

The political situation is stable because any opposition becomes involuntary organ donors.

Red China looks to be staying on the same course as before.

Chinese governments always come into existence and out of existence with a revolution, historically.

#24 I'm Not Poloz on 04.08.17 at 5:53 pm

But why are there literally thousands of Chinese “sensual” masseuses in Toronto if China is growing? or is that Demand vs Supply? That is, Toronto has a serious dating problem and the Chinese entrepreneurs serve a niche market to offer sensual services to sexually frustrated men?

IMO Poloz needs to seek a Masseuse from China.

Wait and see when Justin Trudeau “I am a Feminist” spreads his Liberal ideas into urban China.

China will end up like Japan with a Demographic crisis and a “MGTOW” phenomenon.

In response to the Trudeauization of China, Poloz will definitely cut rates to lower the Loonie faster than the currency manipulation of the Yuan.

#25 For those about to flop... on 04.08.17 at 6:01 pm

Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 04.08.17 at 4:40 pm
China is good, but no analyst really trusts Chinese data, it is a society that specialized in corruption and the Chinese try everything they can to get around Capital Controls (BTCUSD). Yes, I invest in China, but it is risky and not for everyone and is definitely NOT SAFE.

China aside, you missed the biggest growing economy of 2017 by an amazing 20.5% that IS safe…

Any guesses?

///////////////////////////////////

Well, I am sure it’s not this but I have been pleasantly surprised that my India Equity fund is up by 20% this year and 33% yoy.

The only problem with that for me is that it only gets me back to square as it took a turn for the worse over the last two or so years.

I’m going to keep it and slowly add to it over time.

It is only a small amount money I have in this fund but I learnt about my risk tolerance by not panicking and selling when it was down 30%…

M42BC

#26 Penny Henny on 04.08.17 at 6:05 pm

“Smoking Mans Ghost‏ @SmokingMan Apr 4
Replying to @garthturner
fair enough. Hoping to list on the week end. I’ll get a new IP then. Where, no idea where to go.”

—————————–

So Smokies IP address is banned from even logging on. Hmmm.

#27 conan on 04.08.17 at 6:25 pm

Royal Bank of Scotland in January 2016 saying that 2016 would be a “cataclysmic year” with stock markets falling by up to 20% and oil falling to US$16/barrel with China being a key cause. Oops.

Dude its the Royal Bank of Scotland. They are located beside the best pub in the World.

Finance 101: Don’t listen to the Bank of Scotland.

#28 Millennial Realist on 04.08.17 at 6:37 pm

China is a bizarrely unbalanced and doomed economy, based upon hundreds of millions of slave labourers. Hardly a model or lesson for the rest of us.

This article shows an eery connection between employment slavery in China and the precarious gig economy and increasing wealth divide in Canada.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/04/07/gig-economy-will-one-day-make-us-eat-bitterness-mallick.html

“Hessler met Tao Yufeng, 15, who made underwires, a step up from rings, earning 1/20th of a U.S. penny for each set. She was so fast, she made 80 cents an hour, double the minimum wage, doing Deliveroo-style piecework.

But weirdly, she was better off than a London Deliveroo rider. There was a minimum wage, her work was highly valued and she and Wang didn’t skate around words.

Tao Yufeng was happily eating bitterness because it was better than starving in her village. She would eventually wreck her eyesight, but she was temporarily prospering.

When we buy Chinese-made goods and order food by courier because it’s cheap, we’re behaving like little Deliveroos.

But one day we — and our children — might have to become Tao Yufengs on a bike.

So might the company we work for. Canadians worship the god of cheap, always have, and this is where we landed. Cheap clothing, fast food, free journalism, it all leads to a Deliveroo economy.”
———————————————————–

China is about to crumble, from environmental problems to social upheaval due to its unique system of modern slavery. We have been supporting it, sadly.

This is a very prescient sign of where we are actually headed……………..

Anyone need an Uber tonight?

#29 bigtowne on 04.08.17 at 6:49 pm

Homesense was packed today in London. Finally found a young lady (maybe 18) to tell me if the lamp was a 3-way…she had no idea what I meant? The cash was lined up 30 deep (so London still shops) and the staff who were on their toes were ancient birds in their 60’s. Hard to generalize that young folks are superior workers as my old man (65 plus) is the “straw boss” of the twenty and thirty something kids?

It looks like retail is kicking here in Canada but I kept my money in my pocket due to the 30 minute wait to pay so I had to shelve my Tommy Bahama linen. Cry, Cry Cry

#30 Timmy on 04.08.17 at 6:51 pm

DELETED

#31 Timmy on 04.08.17 at 6:52 pm

DELETED

#32 TurnerNation on 04.08.17 at 7:08 pm

#21. Trump card….his deleted posts file. Indeed.

#33 Tony on 04.08.17 at 7:13 pm

The Chinese are desperately trying to get all of their money out of China before Trump decimates the entire Chinese economy with stiff tariffs. China will go the way of Japan.

#34 not 1st on 04.08.17 at 7:15 pm

China is supported by massive shadow stimulus, unregulated banks, govt and currency manipulations.

There is a report circulating that china will fall into a 2-3% GDP range like most mature western economies long before they raise their standard of living to equal with the west. The growth of creating a country from scratch like the US and Canada cant be repeated. That means there will still be 1 billion country side chinese peasants basically forever.

#35 not 1st on 04.08.17 at 7:19 pm

There is no need to invest in china. Investing in canada is a proxy for china. Why put your money into their corruption.

If china is going to rock, so is canada. Best place to put ourselves is right between them and the US.

#36 Doug Rowat on 04.08.17 at 7:37 pm

#22 Arto on 04.08.17 at 5:08 pm

They said the same thing about Japan in the 80s until debt and bad demographics brought it down. Look at Japan today. Thirty years of deflation. Same for China. Their growth is based on ever increasing debt and the one-child policy up-ended their demographics.

It’s been volatile but the Shanghai Composite is up 9% annually over the past 25 years. Not bad. China is also gradually abandoning its one-child policy. As this very youthful country is embarking upon unprecedented urbanization, now is when you want to give up on it?

–Doug

#37 genbizx on 04.08.17 at 7:48 pm

lived there 2 yrs…rabid savers, complete mistrust of government (meaning they take any opportunity to get money out of china) which will hamper hopes of ever creating a consumer economy like the us. also have lots of costs to consider – overseas education for kids, care of elderly parents, medical extras…..
will be an interesting few years…

#38 greyswan on 04.08.17 at 8:02 pm

….part of the sell out….bean counter!

#39 jay on 04.08.17 at 8:08 pm

I guess that’s why Christy Clark has a Chinese flag tattooed you know where.

#40 when the whip comes down on 04.08.17 at 8:23 pm

They still hold a tonne of the US debt, no? Or am I out of date?

#41 Arto on 04.08.17 at 8:25 pm

#37

I have to disagree with you Doug. China”s median age is now 34.5, more like a rich country and not very different from America’s, which is 37. But China is ageing at an unprecedented pace.China’s median age age will rise to 49 by 2050.

http://www.economist.com/node/21553056

Excerpt from the Economist article, contrasting China with the US

“The differences between the two countries are even more striking if you look at their average ages. In 1980 China’s median (the age at which half the population is younger, half older) was 22. That is characteristic of a young developing country. It is now 34.5, more like a rich country and not very different from America’s, which is 37. But China is ageing at an unprecedented pace. Because fewer children are being born as larger generations of adults are getting older, its median age will rise to 49 by 2050, nearly nine years more than America at that point. Some cities will be older still. The Shanghai Population and Family Planning Committee says that more than a third of the city’s population will be over 60 by 2020.”

#42 Doug Rowat on 04.08.17 at 8:28 pm

#35 not 1st on 04.08.17 at 7:15 pm

China is supported by massive shadow stimulus, unregulated banks, govt and currency manipulations.

There is a report circulating that china will fall into a 2-3% GDP range like most mature western economies…

You don’t trust China, but we should trust “a report circulating”?

–Doug

#43 Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 04.08.17 at 8:33 pm

#20 Questions on 04.08.17 at 4:48 pm
Surprised how flat China Mobile’s stock has been over the past 5yrs. Thoughts as to why?
—————-
Rather Than focusing on China Mobil (CHL.N), take a look at Netease (NTES.N). It is a Chinese internet company. If you place trend lines on the curve, it has been growing YoY at over 50% from 2013 onwards. Place a parallel line under the lower trend line and use this a progressive mental stop. This will get you out should the trend start to fail (but I would give it lots of room before deciding to sell).

#44 Entrepreneur on 04.08.17 at 8:42 pm

Pulled my investments from China, more into the U.S.A., and Canada. I am a believer in my own country and our best pals down south.

These communist countries always have the same leader from father to son, on and on. So it is the leaders way or the highway thinking mentality. And they have control of the people whether they like it or not, yuk.

Is communist the way to rule a nation? No! Is democracy a better way? Yes, but it needs correcting. And U.S.A. and UK are leading the way.

#45 Trumpocalypse2017 on 04.08.17 at 8:44 pm

BREAKING NEWS!

USA navy carrier group now closing in on Korean peninsula.

Kim Jong-un is certainly not afraid to use his nukes. Especially now he knows Trump may be after him personally.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-navy-korea-idUSKBN17A0V5

#46 Gasbag Boomer on 04.08.17 at 8:45 pm

Doug, right or wrong, majority rules as we have been subjected to in, at least, a democratic system!

#47 al on 04.08.17 at 8:50 pm

Two Porches passing in the night…

Pretty funny but don’t quit your day job plz.

txs

#48 OttawaMike on 04.08.17 at 9:41 pm

How can a system where:
— vendors and producers contaminate their food products to boost profits,
–regulatory agents get bribed to look the other way,
–industrial manufacturers substitute cheaper components once contracts are signed and the foreign buyer is not watching closely enough.

Ever expect to reach modern G8 living standards? Corruption is the bane of India and China.

#49 james on 04.08.17 at 9:56 pm

It is so much more pleasant to read the comments here now that the emasculated smoking turd is no longer posting his unoriginal nonsense.

Stay away forever, bumwipe.

#50 Nonplused on 04.08.17 at 10:04 pm

I can’t believe you guys drive Porches. I mean sure they are nice cars. But, a sane man would look at a car the same way he looks at a hammer. Does it need to be gold plated? I mean I am just hanging one picture here. One nail. I think the average speed of your Porsche in TO is about as mush as a Vespa. Actually the Vespa probably has a higher average speed.

Also it’s bad optics. In the agricultural business, the salesmen all drive the same trucks as the farmers. They don’t drive Porches.

It brings us back to the same question that has always been around financial advisors. Why do they have Porsches and country club memberships when thier customers don’t?

Loose the Porsche, and live like your customers. It’s bad optics if you don’t.

Go ahead. Ask me what I ride. — Garth

#51 Smoking Man on 04.08.17 at 10:14 pm

Test? so afraid of this outcome.

#52 TRUMP on 04.08.17 at 10:14 pm

FAKE NEWS!!!

#53 Ret on 04.08.17 at 10:40 pm

I’ll be interested to see if China tries to use Canada as the backdoor to get goods into the US when Trump changes trade rules for goods from China.

Worst case scenario – Trump shuts down all unnecessary imports to the US from Canada.

T2’s visits to China, state dinners, etc., a.k.a. Liberal trade missions, are not hardball negotiations with a communist superpower on trade issues, energy contracts, access to markets etc.

#54 I'm stupid on 04.08.17 at 11:21 pm

You don’t trust China, but we should trust “a report circulating”?

–Doug

You shouldn’t trust either, just my opinion. Call me a fool, but I choose not to invest in a market where information can’t be trusted. If everything is as great as it seems why hide?

I understand being globally diversified but I exclude China. I can’t invest on false information and just guessing.

#55 NV Landlord on 04.08.17 at 11:22 pm

to #17’s challenge:
What is the biggest growing economy that IS safe, and growing at 30% or more?

The Canadian portion of my portfolio in 2016 made 21.5%
And it is pretty safe (in spite of CPG)

#56 Jeff on 04.08.17 at 11:43 pm

China had a fertility rate of 6 kids per woman in 1967.
One child policy introduced in late 70’s.
By 1994 the fertility rate fell below replacement rate.
Their “aging population problem” is a million times worse than ours. Economically they’ve got about ten years left before their labour force begins to shrink and their business model of endless slave labour grinds to a halt.

#57 NV Landlord on 04.08.17 at 11:43 pm

#52 edit question was growing at 20% or more, sorry typo…

#58 LH on 04.08.17 at 11:47 pm

Charlie Munger on the Chinese:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ibabROYccs&t=2137s

#59 waiting on the westcoast on 04.09.17 at 12:21 am

#6 Sir James on 04.08.17 at 2:30 pm says “The only way a nation of free people can compete with a nation of slaves, is to become slaves themselves”

Still lurking but haven’t posted in awhile. This one needed rebuttal…

Actually the freer and more open society has always outcompeted the nation of slaves…

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.17 at 12:40 am

Doug,
You obviously did not win over many dogs today.
Most Caucasians don’t like Chinese food.
My advice to you and Ryan is not to bother with another installment of you pandering to the Chinese.

#61 Vancouver Dudes on 04.09.17 at 12:41 am

DELETED

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.17 at 12:42 am

Smoking Man has been barred for life.
Why?

He hasn’t. Just being a drama queen. — Garth

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.17 at 12:44 am

I’d rather say 100 billionaires can’t be wrong.

#64 Sydneysider on 04.09.17 at 12:50 am

To add to #22 Arto… Let us also not forget the Asian financial crisis of 1997. Nobody saw that coming. One day the property boom in Singapore was unstoppable. The next, rents fell by a half, and it took a couple of years to sell an apartment in a good location at a modest loss.

#65 Questions on 04.09.17 at 1:21 am

#44 Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 04.08.17 at 8:33 pm
#20 Questions on 04.08.17 at 4:48 pm
Surprised how flat China Mobile’s stock has been over the past 5yrs. Thoughts as to why?
—————-
Rather Than focusing on China Mobil (CHL.N), take a look at Netease (NTES.N). It is a Chinese internet company. If you place trend lines on the curve, it has been growing YoY at over 50% from 2013 onwards. Place a parallel line under the lower trend line and use this a progressive mental stop. This will get you out should the trend start to fail (but I would give it lots of room before deciding to sell).

Yes, I traded on Netease twice with success. Not something I usually do, but it was a gimme. Couldn’t quite make sense of it’s behavior.

Still curious to understand why China Mobile’s stock doesn’t seem to reflect this above mentioned growth and strength.

#66 Vancouver Dudes on 04.09.17 at 1:26 am

#49 james on 04.08.17 at 9:56 pm
It is so much more pleasant to read the comments here now that the emasculated smoking turd is no longer posting his unoriginal nonsense.

Stay away forever, bumwipe.

didn’t you say you were gonna go away.
james, a true looooooser!!!!!

#67 YVR Update on 04.09.17 at 1:52 am

“Cheap money – not Chinese or Iranian dudes – have given us Vancouver Specials at $1.4 million and 1980s particle board 905 clunkers at $1.1 million. -Garth”

So why haven’t Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Halifax prices at these levels?? Is money more expensive there. Been waiting for an answer for 10 years now.

#68 Danger Dan on 04.09.17 at 3:01 am

I’m extremely skeptical about this one and there is much reason to feel so:

In regards to demographics, according to the population pyramid, China is about similar to the developed world:

http://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2017/

There is a population projection as well there which indicates they are estimated to plateau shortly before falling sharply.

The telecommunications advances can hardly be worth mentioning, given that the Great Firewall chokes cross-border data flows to a trickle. The SEZs are not exempt, anyone who wishes to smoothly communicate with the outside world must go through HK telecom infrastructure. China also lacks the strong IP protections that enable innovation in the global market. Where would our own economy be if we had to communicate with our biggest trade partner using a tin can tied to a string?

Xiaomi is a great example of the typical Chinese modern business. The company has only recently entered the global market, but the company started as just another classic grey market operation minting knock-off designs to sell to the domestic market where nobody cares about fanciful Western notions like patent infringement. Hey, it’s China, su patent my patent. Xiaomi’s attempt at a homegrown OS is *garbage* by all accounts, even with all the pilfering for a leg-up. Growth in 4G… well, we’ll see how that pans out. Their smartphones are surveillance devices. The government tracks every unique identifier through the vendors and has the devices backdoored from the factory. It is not an exaggeration to say they have even the Stasi beat in the pervasiveness of mass surveillance. In a country where people are hesitant to call the police when someone is being beaten to death in front of them, it hardly seems likely that great innovation will be carried out across devices the layperson knows is tapped on command by the government. Legal recourse is just another fanciful Western notion.

Where the NSA attempts to protect American business, the CCP kicks in the door and purp-walks the owners off to a black prison should they refuse to share their schematics (IP) for government approval. Anyone who invests in China is taking the risk of getting fleeced. Many have already been forced to exit the market, poorer than when they entered it.

Article at random on that topic: http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/2067470/why-foreign-companies-are-shutting-shop-china

And of course, no rant about how boned China is would be complete without mention of their air quality issues, which are so bad they are actually inconceivable to about 99% of Canadians. Toronto’s worst smog alert in history would a miraculous day in China. There have been scathing exposes (by natives and otherwise) on the topic, it isn’t much of a secret that it affects not just lifespan but also productivity, and that there is no easy fix because attempts at regulation thus far have been consumed by the blackhole of endemic low-level corruption that pervades everyday Chinese business.

There will not be any legitimate free trade agreement with China while the political status quo persists, so the very notion of investing and coming out of it with a profit is… well, I dunno much about walking tightropes. Just a blog dog’s 2c, I’d rather trust a casino with my money than China. The big picture screams downside risk.

#69 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.09.17 at 3:12 am

#15 How about more than 1.4 billion? on 04.08.17 at 3:46 pm
The Chinese want all the ridiculous stuff that Westerners want.

Why single out 1.4 billion Chinese?

All the 7 billion+ plus people want it who does not have it yet. Which leaves much more than 1.4 billion.

Late comers always adapt technology faster when catching up, this happened with telecom in Eastern-Europe, which went from 5 years wait list for a phone line to better mobile service than Canada has in no time.

They also operate fast, driverless subway lines, with full mobile phone coverage for years now, something that the world-class Toronto can only dream about – today.

Our biggest problem is not China – it is Canada, our slow pace of adaptation technologies, their non-competitive price that is one of the most expensive in the world, our inability to turn resources into high value added products, instead of selling them raw to countries like China, creating colonial-style dependency.

Maybe this is what one of the future articles should take a look.

As Garth keeps mentioning here all the time: let’s worry about things that you can change. We can’t change China.

====================================

Good point about Canada being slow to catch on. What can you expect with a government hostile to entrepreneurs.
Why do I say that?
There is plenty of bank money for some new immigrant school kid with no income and a down payment for a condo at 2.6%.
For the entrepreneurs who are creating jobs in basements and lofts. Well, Kiss Off! The banks say. Get a credit card at 20%.
Our masters are so blind with greed they cannot see the future of this country they are destroying.

#70 Freedom First on 04.09.17 at 3:27 am

I think the average age of the Chinese people in China is going to be dropping yearly as the # of people dying yearly from respiratory illnesses increases. The # is already in the 7 figures at the present. But with the growing urbanization and manufacturing growth the death and disease rates are sure to grow. With the older people dying off at a faster rate than the younger people.

Unless, of course, the green energy growth is speeded up at a much faster rate than is currently taking place.

Unfortunately, the pollution created world wide is spread world wide by the prevailing winds, as the molecules in the air do not disappear but continue to travel around the world. Naturally, the average human being is ignorant of this, and the ignorant are seldom convinced by facts. All you have to do is read this Blog to know that is true.

And, unfortunately, judging by Garth’s polls, the average Blog dog is much more educated and wealthier than the average citizen. Stupid is as stupid does.

#71 maxx on 04.09.17 at 7:44 am

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.08.17 at 3:24 pm

“Now if only we could get China’s middle class to stop buying endangered Rhino horn, elephant tusks, rare giant clams, shark fin soup, etc.,etc., etc., ….there might be hope for the endangered animals on this planet yet…….”

Hear, hear!!!

Perhaps all global border services and customs agencies could be staffed by a UN equivalent, with the stiffest of penalties for the importation of any animal product that violates protected status.
In very short order, there would be little chance that these massively cruel industries would survive.

This type of border upgrade is overdue. With global trade increasing, upgraded protective measures of all kinds are needed to prevent the importation of dangerous crap- baby formula and pet food laced with melamine, toys painted with toxic metal, ditto for jewelry plated with cadmium, gorilla hands for ash trays…….

Human character is perfectly expressed in what we buy.
Everything we buy tells a story about how we view and value (or not) our world.

#72 Kevin Sparling on 04.09.17 at 7:52 am

I have been living in China for the past two years, so yes I at least “sorta” know what I’m talking about.

China is a poor bet. The numbers are lies, yes there is progress in some tech fields but a lot of it just cannabises from other industries. There is huge growth in online sales, but almost every store you go to has more people working than buying. Restaurants open up with big business at first, big discounts for everyone, and then shut down a couple of months later. Two years ago every movie I went to was packed to the gills with people due to big discounts, now they’re mostly empty. Customers whipsaw from one business to the next. I know a business that’s not making money when I see it, most businesses are losing money to “gain market share”.

If that’s on the small scale, what about on the big scale? I live in one of the big tier-1 cities, and travel to another one regularly. Everyone knows here that the best way to get rich is to buy a house, people got houses for next to nothing in the 90s and made a killing – now new buildings are built across the street from other empty buildings. All sold to speculators, but no one who actually wants to pay the mortgage on them and live in them. China is in deep trouble, the credit expansion pedal has been down to the floor for 9 years, and they can’t take any short term pain to fix the systemic problems due to political pressures.

It’s like a neighbour who is still keeping up with the Jonses by putting so much on the credit card, it looks gravity defying until you look into it. SOEs here are up to their eyeballs in debt and it won’t last

#73 Kevin Sparling on 04.09.17 at 8:02 am

Also, so people understand what prices are like here for apartments – about 6 months ago a friend of mine had to move because the landlord had sold the apartment. Decent place (better than mine), about 100 square meters, maybe 5 years old, his rent was about 600 dollars (CDN) a month. A rule of thumb I’ve heard many times for real estate valuations is that a house is supposed to rent each year for approximately 5% of its value, so the house should be valued at ~$144,000. What did it sell for? About 3 times that, so you could rent the house for about 60 years for what it costs to buy. That building will be demolished before then, and who knows what’s going to happen with the knife that hangs everyone’s head when the property that they “own” maybe goes back to government ownership after 70 years. It’s a joke, and it’s a bubble, and almost no one here can see it.

#74 Cow Man on 04.09.17 at 8:13 am

# 66 Danger Dan

Thank you for your excellent contribution. Upon reading it I was wondering if you were writing about Chinese investments, or Canadian Life Insurance Policies.

#75 Doug Rowat on 04.09.17 at 8:25 am

#68 Freedom First on 04.09.17 at 3:27 am

Unfortunately, the pollution created world wide is spread world wide by the prevailing winds, as the molecules in the air do not disappear but continue to travel around the world.

The fart principle.

–Doug

#76 Doug Rowat on 04.09.17 at 8:49 am

#42 Arto on 04.08.17 at 8:25 pm

I have to disagree with you Doug. China”s median age is now 34.5, more like a rich country and not very different from America’s, which is 37. But China is ageing at an unprecedented pace.China’s median age age will rise to 49 by 2050.

China has essentially phased out its one-child policy. About 18.5 million babies were born in China in 2016, an 11% y-o-y growth rate. Apparently, growth is back.

http://www.newsweek.com/fertility-rate-rising-china-two-child-policy-566695

–Doug

#77 OECD Economic Survey of China on 04.09.17 at 8:55 am

“… [T]he Chinese economy continues to grow fast by international standards. While growth is slowing gradually, GDP per capita remains on course to almost double between 2010 and 2020. As a result, the Chinese economy will remain the major driver of global growth for the foreseeable future….”
— OECD Economic Survey of China, March 2017

http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/china-2017-OECD-economic-survey-overview.pdf

#78 Kool Aid on 04.09.17 at 8:57 am

5G is the future, it will accelerate… AI, IOT, Autonomous Everything, Robo, NanoT, BioM, AgraT etc…

China is currently expanding all tech and specifically robo manufacturing at a blistering pace, more robo tech replacing work in China then all other nations combined.

Capital is replacing labour, EM beefy returns are coupled to greater & unforeseen future risk.

China’s greatly expanding technical prowess is the main point of friction with USA, EU, Japan, technology transfer has created a nation with a tremendously deep engineering base that now rivals the best anywhere.

I have some issues with China focused investments opportunities and it has nothing to do with the rate of return.

#79 HAM R Us on 04.09.17 at 9:34 am

So many ignorant, biased, stereotype opinions about China that are seen here in the comments section. This is supposedly a well-educated crowd. No wonder Canada is falling behind so rapidly in terms of everything, technology, general education, income, etc. Eventually it will catch up to the average Canadian. But by then, we are already a third world country! I have been witnessing this slow death every day for the last 30 years. Sad…..

#80 conan on 04.09.17 at 9:53 am

Go ahead. Ask me what I ride. — Garth

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzUU7SRRsGo

#81 MF on 04.09.17 at 10:20 am

Gotta agree with the blog dogs on this one Doug, especially those posts from people actually living in China.

I don’t believe any of the statistics this communist regime puts out. They are all lies intended to keep them in power and nothing more. They are paranoid of being overthrown just like all of these communist regimes and cannot be trusted at all.

If not that, then it’s the rampant corruption, lack of regulations (melamine), or rampant use of slave labour that screams caution.

My GF refuses to eat rice, meat or vegetables if they are from China. She doesn’t trust them. The prevailing idea about Chinese goods is that they are cheap, but unreliable. Almost everyone I have ever spoken to feels the same.

I think I’ll pass.

MF

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.17 at 10:47 am

@#73 Doug.
“The fart principle”
********************************************
Ahhhh yes.

The Law of Flatulence
“Every gaseous molecule ever created by man or beast is still floating around in the atmosphere.
Theoretically, you could have breathed in Jesus’s farts, an extinct Dodo’s farts, Hitlers farts, MY farts……
The possibilities are endless….

Dont be stealin’ my “thunder”….

#83 TurnerNation on 04.09.17 at 10:53 am

Coffee shop convo has downtown Toronto condo selling in 24hrs at 60k over asking.

(Blog Dogs are everywhere. And likely in some lesser corners of the internet known as “Garthoids”. If only they knew: bikes, babes and balanced portfolios.)

#84 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 04.09.17 at 10:58 am

Re: Guesses…?

For those that guesses India, you are right. Up 20% , the best performing market this year, x2.2 more than China. 2nd was Poland at 15.5%

#85 Who knows on 04.09.17 at 11:24 am

I know what I’m about to say sounds discriminatory but that’s not my intention. I don’t hate anyone based on race, religion, sexual orientation, gender etc etc. I just analyze what I see.

I began looking at Mls listings over the last month and noticed a proportionally higher number of listing agents of Asian decent. Not to say that none Asians wouldn’t use Asian agents. This could be nothing or we could be experiencing a cashing out by the Asian community in the Toronto area.

#86 traderJim on 04.09.17 at 11:35 am

#6 Sir James

“The only way a nation of free people can compete with a nation of slaves, is to become slaves themselves.”

What? I’m sorry but that is one really dumb statement. Slaves are completely unproductive, as historical studies have shown, and as any rational person would expect.

Meanwhile free countries like the USA are the greatest wealth producers in history.

If there was a grain of truth to that ridiculous statement then North Korea would be a powerhouse and the USA would be paupers.

(Or do I have such a low opinion of posters these days that I am missing obvious sarcasm again?)

#87 traderJim on 04.09.17 at 11:43 am

#49 james

“It is so much more pleasant to read the comments here now that the emasculated smoking turd is no longer posting his unoriginal nonsense.

Stay away forever, bumwipe.”

That may be the most obnoxious, whiny, puerile, and hypocritical post I have ever seen.

I’d take 1 SM post over 10,000 of james’ whining, humourless ones.

What a sad life some people must live.

#88 traderJim on 04.09.17 at 11:49 am

#70 Kevin

Thanks for the insight. Your observations are exactly what I had thought the real situation was.

I lived in Japan during their great bubble and saw many of the same (cultural) things, but not nearly on the scale of China.

I marveled at how competing Japanese banks would make ridiculous trades, ones I could never compete with, until they got into deep financial trouble, finally.

But they can play games for a long time before reality bites, especially when propped up by the state.

#89 traderJim on 04.09.17 at 11:54 am

#12 Fartz

“Now if only we could get China’s middle class to stop buying endangered Rhino horn, elephant tusks, rare giant clams, shark fin soup, etc.,etc., etc., ….there might be hope for the endangered animals on this planet yet…….”

Nice thought but can’t see any way that will happen. Visit Africa before it’s too late.

#90 traderJim on 04.09.17 at 12:05 pm

Really interesting article on electric and self driving vehicles and consequences investment-wise.

http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-second-order-consequences

#91 Russ on 04.09.17 at 12:26 pm

Loose the Porsche, and live like your customers. It’s bad optics if you don’t.

Go ahead. Ask me what I ride. — Garth
=============================

Okay.
What do you ride?

In the stable is my wife’s Shadow

and in the motorcycle shed is my 3 collectables:
Goldwing (it’s like riding a couch and the queen loves her perch on the elevated Corbin throne)

GS 11000 GK (touring model Suzuki)

Maxim (double overhead cam “town bike”)

Cheers, R

Traded in the Road King for a Stateline 1300. Buy HD and ride it to the garage. Buy Honda and just ride. — Garth

#92 Paul on 04.09.17 at 1:07 pm

5 traderJim on 04.09.17 at 11:43 am

#49 james

“It is so much more pleasant to read the comments here now that the emasculated smoking turd is no longer posting his unoriginal nonsense.

Stay away forever, bumwipe.”
—————————————————————–
I know lets play survivor, we all likes polls ect.

Garth should run a vote on who leaves the blog.
Smoking Man or Whine James at #49??

#93 Doug Rowat on 04.09.17 at 1:50 pm

#76 Kool Aid on 04.09.17 at 8:57 am

5G is the future, it will accelerate… AI, IOT, Autonomous Everything, Robo, NanoT, BioM, AgraT etc…

Yes, and it’s the reliability of the network that is as important as its speed and scope. Think, for example, of remote surgeries. You don’t want signal loss in the middle of that.

–Doug

#94 1.4 billion people can’t be wrong – TheChinaBiZZ on 04.09.17 at 2:02 pm

[…] China Mobile Customer Baes (Millions): Rapidly Connecting its 4G Network in 2013. Source: China Mobile (CM officially launched its 4G network in 2013) And how will this sidelined money filter into the economy? Much of it will come via technology investment … ( read original story …) […]

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.17 at 2:51 pm

attention all Smokey worriers.
check his twitter feed.
He wasnt booted.
The Smokey “train” just seems to be a tad self “derailed”.
Apparently cause and effect or the never ending saga of inevitable JD and nictonite abuse…………

#96 james on 04.09.17 at 2:57 pm

#91 Paul said:

“I know lets play survivor, we all likes polls ect.

Garth should run a vote on who leaves the blog.
Smoking Man or Whine James at #49??”
———————————————————

How soon you forget, Paul.

Back on November 7, I posed just such a challenge to the emasculated smoking turd. But he did not have the spine or guts to make a projection about the election (even though he fraudulently now claims he knew for sure Trump would win, LOL! What a cowardly loser.)

No guts, no glory. Just plagiarize another’s story. I guess that is his credo.

Here is what I said to emasculated smoking turd back then, to which he never responded, shivering with fear in his conspiracy nutjob shelter of idiocy:

—————
(from November 7/16)

Well, smoking idiot just said this:

“This confirms to me LANDSLIDE for TRUMP
You will all be shocked tomorrow”

So, my little emasculated turd cowering in Stephen Harper’s closet, why not put your money where your mouth is!?!

Trump wins, I stop posting here, never to return.

Hillary wins, you do likewise.

Ready to deal? My offer is extended until tomorrow before polls close.

Or are you just like those sniffling feminazi SJWs you hate, afraid to stand up for what you lie about believing in?

Opinions on that are hardening, you coward.

(Unlike your spine)

———————–

So sad. So gutless. So unoriginal. So dumb.

So cool that he is not posting now :)

#97 bill on 04.09.17 at 3:32 pm

”Traded in the Road King for a Stateline 1300. Buy HD and ride it to the garage. Buy Honda and just ride. — Garth”
well done Garth! Hondas are excellent bikes. should never have sold my ’73 750.
this is a Honda I am looking at…
https://motorcycle.honda.ca/model/naked/cb1100a
nice and sedate for my golden years…
if I dont get an R1…may have to lose a gut to get on that one..

#98 NoName on 04.09.17 at 4:36 pm

#80 MF on 04.09.17 at 10:20 am

its not how acurate commi stats are, at this point is all about numbers and mass consumption, mass production…

China market is fairly young, its not that difficult for marketing co. to sell thru story telling/selling, good read about story telling/selling, in link below.

http://bit.ly/2onc4iN

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.17 at 5:40 pm

One Hundred !

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.17 at 5:45 pm

@#96 bill
Yup.
i had a 1976 CB750
Traded that for a 1981 CB900F
Traded that for a CB1100F

The 900F was the better bike.
Better suspension than the older CB750.
Lighter than the 1100F by almost 100lbs.
Cheaper to buy, Cheaper insurance, easier on gas…..all in all, just as good of a bike as the 1100.
Take a 900 for a test drive then the 1100.
You might be surprised.

#101 bill on 04.09.17 at 7:08 pm

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.17 at 5:45 pm
well I see your point . mine did have a few mods though.
having a need for speed I used to buy slightly used race bikes eh? and the 750 was a production racer [from crashed bikes!]that was flogged at westwood for a season or two before I bought it . due to changes in the gearing and other grey area techniques it went pretty good. it would be right on the heels of the kawi 750s until its weight ‘affected’ the stopping power…
…however the bike I am referring to is actually a very recent model if a bit of an anachronism.
it is as far as I know the new and improved version of the classic ” Honda aircooled four ”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_CB1100
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_CB1100F
a chat with Frankie Juhan at the bike show seemed to indicate we could get a bit more out of it than Honda deemed enough. probably a pipe,power commander and free breathing air filter should do the trick.
its still air cooled so there is an upper limit to power as they say…
a plug for Frankie if you dont mind Garth!
https://hondacentre.com/?page_id=5466
disclaimer: my bin bike had absolutely nothing to do with frankie or honda!!
they probably cringed at the thought actually..

#102 Bryan on 04.10.17 at 1:36 pm

Hi Doug,
Your article sort of makes the assumption that all those 590 million rural Chinese citizens will move into the city at some point and boost spending with higher incomes as a result of the move. I’m wondering if you have considered what precentage of Canada’s/US’s/other countries populations are rural and compared this to China’s percentage that are rural. I would assume that a certain percentage of the population would have to be rural (since the food, etc.) has to come from somewhere. With that in mind, could it perhaps be true with such a large populations that with the tens of millions of migration to cities over the last couple decades that the move to urbanize has already largely occured in China?

Bryan the chartered accountant

#103 M on 04.12.17 at 12:01 pm

“However, next week Ryan will highlight the Chinese economic numbers that are the most difficult to fudge, and therefore the most reliable and valid. ”

… big laugh :)