Maybe, part deux

It continues. The meme of a housing crash in the nation’s premier real estate market swells by the day. It’s now part of divorces (more on that sad thought in a moment).To date, sellers have been gods. Buyers, infected with FOMO, have been put through hell. Blind auctions. Certified cheques with offers. Bidding wars. Scant listings. Relentless competition. Crap houses. Insane asking prices. More insane selling ones. Arrogant realtors. Insufferable vendors. Feeling diminished, powerless and manipulated. Revenge will be so sweet.

And it may come sooner than most believe.

So real is the prospect of a residential reversal that it’s now being included as a caveat in family law. “I’m noticing that some lawyers (including myself) are now starting to include warnings in Separation Agreements about the potential for a housing crash,” says Toronto solicitor (and blog dog) Usman Sadiq. “For example, in some cases we have a spouse who opts to take a lump sum payment of spousal support or child support by taking the other spouse’s interest in the home.  In such a case we are now advising clients of the potential risk of doing this (ie. housing crash) and we are also including this in our separation agreements.”

Just months ago that would have been amusing. Now the threat’s tangible enough to give bickering, splitting couples one more giant thing to worry about. “I have no doubt in my mind that this is going to end badly for a lot of people,” says Usman. “It’s not sustainable and is literally mirroring what happened in the USA (high household debt, high debt to GDP ratio, speculation, mortgage fraud, etc.).”

Agreed.

The voices are cacophonous. Here’s David Rosenberg, the big econo-cheese at Bay Street’s Gluskin Sheff:

“This is a bubble of historic proportions.

“Not only to have home prices in the GTA now absorb an unprecedented 13 years of median family income, but to have 30 per-cent-ish run-ups against a backdrop of a 2 per cent inflation rate, wages that are barely going up 2 per cent as well, and nominal GDP growth of around 4 per cent. This should put 30 per cent into some sort of perspective when we conclude that what we have on our hands is a near three standard deviation event.

“That alone qualifies as a bubble — if you don’t like that term, then call it a giant sud. In the past, Toronto home prices went up at an annual rate of 4 per cent in real terms, in the past year they have surged by nearly 30 per cent.”

And what does Rosey want? Most importantly for the Bank for Canada to raise interest rates, despite the damage that would do to Halifax or Winnipeg. He joins heavy duty bankers who are calling on – or, actually, begging – governments to intervene before the gasbag blows, throwing spray on everyone. Royal Bank’s CEO Dave McKay told shareholders the market’s “at a point of strain,” with “concerning and unsustainable” prices and is asking politicians for a “multi-faceted solution which address supply constraints and speculative forces.”

“If this issue goes unchecked,” he warned, “it could drag on consumer spending, locking up too much capital unproductively, and potentially becoming an inhibitor to Canada’s future economic growth.” Not to mention bank profits. As referenced here yesterday, Scotiabank is also crying out for intervention.

What next?

Lots, apparently. Ontario’s Liberal premier says she’s about to bring the hammer down on landlords, lifting the cap on rent control for properties built after 1991 – to date excluded from tenant-friendly regs. Of course that’ll halt development of new rental units in its tracks, shock amateur landlords who’ll see more negative cash flow, lower cap rates and ultimately devalue investment real estate. The biggest losers – everybody who owns a condo.

The province is almost certain to use its budget this month to hammer the housing market with a spec tax, a levy on foreign buyers, or both. The federal finance minister is muscling back into the picture after his do-nothing budget last month, this week writing the lefty premier and Toronto’s formerly conservative mayor for a summit on the GTA dirigible. The goal: “To consider how we can collectively make progress to ensure that housing in the GTA is both affordable and accessible for the long term. I am concerned that dramatic house price increases will have long-term implications for housing affordability and housing market stability.”

Ironic, isn’t it? The feds gave us historically low mortgage rates, homebuyer tax credits, the RRSP homebuyer’s plan and CHMC to wipe away banker risk so they can loan big to kids with no savings. The province’s last budget dropped land taxes for fist-time buyers to encourage more of them to bid. And now they want to save us from ourselves?

Well, we’re on the way to taxes on empty houses, speculators, condo landlords and Chinese dudes while rent increases are squished. And even without any of it, the frenzy’s already fading and divorces are being crash-proofed.

Did I ever mention this may not end well?

164 comments ↓

#1 Frank on 04.06.17 at 6:26 pm

This is all deja vu from last year with Vancouver. Still hasn’t gone wrong. The run up stopped in Calgary, Van and eventually in Toronto but no piper has been paid. It may end fine

#2 For those about to flop... on 04.06.17 at 6:32 pm

#1 Frank on 04.06.17 at 6:26 pm
This is all deja vu from last year with Vancouver. Still hasn’t gone wrong. The run up stopped in Calgary, Van and eventually in Toronto but no piper has been paid. It may end fine.

//////////////////////////

Too much Red Hot Sauce…

M42BC

#3 Alice on 04.06.17 at 6:32 pm

I’m sure Toronto prices are rising because it’s the next Manhattan. That’s why prices in North Korea are rising the exact same rate, right?

https://betterdwelling.com/even-north-korea-is-experiencing-a-real-estate-bubble/

#4 Tom on 04.06.17 at 6:33 pm

Tax! Tax! Tax!

The upcoming basket of measures….will amount to a fantastic opportunity for all levels of gov’t to tighten the screws on everyone through taxation – because gov’ts can always find a way to collect and spend more.

Foreign buyers tax, change to capital gains tax on multiple properties, vacant home tax….

Good luck. Screws are being turned, this isn’t about making things sustainable. No one wants the party to stop except those that feel that housing is a human right. Wynne (low popularity) needs the party to keep going to balance the budget before the next election and throw more money around to buy votes. Tory is still sore from not being able to implement road taxes, wants another way to collect more despite the unique cash cow Toronto transfer tax. And Justin….he’s preparing for the collective mass depression that will occur when this thing pops – by setting a timeline for legal pot. Way to go!

#5 I'm Not Poloz on 04.06.17 at 6:33 pm

Exporter disorder poster boy Poloz wants to lower the Loonie to 65 cents U.S. next week!

What to do?

Poloz really wants a 60-cent Loonie! There were even talks that if Trump lower corporate tax rates in the near future, Poloz suggested that a 50-cent Loonie will help with boosting exports to the U.S.A.

Justin Trudeau doesn’t even know about fiscal and monetary policy because he keeps on talking like a Pokemon “I am a feminist” all the time.

Canada is royally screwed. We are definitely going to be living under a 60-cent Loonie this decade if Poloz gets it his way to devalue the Loonie!

#6 Alice on 04.06.17 at 6:34 pm

Question for Garth, what do you think of gold to hedge against the hyperinflation we’re going to experience in Canada?

#7 not 1st on 04.06.17 at 6:38 pm

Garth, dont you know toronto is world class now, like London, Paris, Shanghai….blah, blah, blah

#8 hammer in the town on 04.06.17 at 6:39 pm

but rob golfi was on citynews yesterday saying Hamilton is going to be hot for the next 10 to 15 years. so everybody sell your Toronto house and move to Hamilton.

#9 crdt on 04.06.17 at 6:42 pm

“Revenge will be so sweet.” Hey, what is a million when the next guy offers million two a week later. If housing ever gets back to those old fashioned fundamentals it will be a sobering event for the house wealthy. After all, if housing reflected fundamentals then they would simply be non-renters, not the uber sophisticated financial geniuses… Let the flood gates of reality wash away the froth already..

#10 Tim on 04.06.17 at 6:43 pm

I don’t know where you get a housing crash from. The last time I checked it was still $500K for a one bedroom condo in Vancouver.

#11 Jerry on 04.06.17 at 6:45 pm

You can certainly thank the government for creating this mess, especially in BC:
n 2005 the BC Liberals removed government oversight from B.C.’s real estate agents, letting the industry self-regulate. Result: Brokers got rich and drove up prices by “shadow-flipping”* — reselling a property multiple times before a deal closes and profiting from each transfer using a sales contract clause.

When the public caught wind, Premier Clark’s response, to close the shadow flipping loophole and re-regulate realtors, failed to impress Martyn Brown, former chief of staff to premier Campbell.

Clark has refused to act “when confronted with the irrefutable evidence that B.C.’s housing and real estate industry was a scandal-ridden haven for shady realtors, money launderers, and dishonest brokers,” Brown wrote. “It was only when the political heat got too intense that she did her infamous ‘180’ by reregulating the industry that her government had for so long allowed to run amok.”

#12 JSS on 04.06.17 at 6:45 pm

I am betting that the biggest housing crash in Canada will happen in Edmonton – an economy that’s completely at the mercy of oil prices.

I still don’t see Van, TO get hit so hard.

#13 Penny Henny on 04.06.17 at 6:45 pm

The province is almost certain to use its budget this month to hammer the housing market with a speck tax, a levy on foreign buyers, or both.-GT

/////////////////////

so what should we call this one?
A chinese, iranian and russian buyer tax?

#14 X on 04.06.17 at 6:46 pm

Funny how the government wants to add more taxes (as they are cash strapped) rather than increase down payments to 10% for all, altering CMHC insurance and/or eliminate borrowing from the RRSP to purchase a home.

Supply takes a long time to bring up to the level of demand. Squashing demand much easier… unless you are seeking re election.

#15 Penny Henny on 04.06.17 at 6:46 pm

Chinese, Iranian, Russian tax.
Lets call it a CIR tax.
Get it.
A surtax.

#16 hooyt on 04.06.17 at 6:46 pm

Garth, as a super hip, neat hair styled, teet suckin millenial we luv u

#17 The Fat Lady on 04.06.17 at 6:49 pm

Laa DAA DEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!

#18 Trumpocalypse2017 on 04.06.17 at 6:51 pm

Don’t worry, though.

As Canada’s housing bubble crashes, followed by the entire economy, we’ll have a very big distraction…at least as long as television service continues.

Global war. Probably nuclear.

“Recent Russian actions suggest a new stage of the Russian threat to Ukraine—and potentially to the Caucasus, Belarus or the Baltic states as well—that could presage a new large-scale military operation.”

“More recent deployments are even more ominous”

“It is possible that Putin feels pressed to strike sooner rather than later…”

“It is likely that a period of maximum danger to Ukraine, Belarus or the Caucasus is approaching.”

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-fumbles-putin-quietly-prepares-invade-his-neighbors-578565

Stock up on your supplies.

This week.

The chaos ahead will blow you away, many of you.

Literally.

#19 ShawnG in TO on 04.06.17 at 6:57 pm

a financial bubble is not a result of failed monetary policies. it is emotional, irrational, and large scale reaction of market participants. a herd action. so you can’t analyse it logically or rationally.

what pops a real estate bubble? not higher rates, not ham taxes. it is the recognition that “oh my gosh, this is crazy. what am i doing” on a collective scale. another herd reaction.

so prediction of a bubble popping is hard too. every mind react differently. some people are more close to reason and are more aware (blog dogs here), and some people are cuckoo and way out there. it’s like predicting how many straws will break the camel’s back.

but there are enough signs out there that this is the final buff of the bubble. if anything 33% rise in 1 year should have shock the moists out here that this is not backed by economic fundamentals.

it might be time to list some of the things that will go wrong after the bubble. mass unemployment (construction, sales, mortgage). significant reduction in wealth effects (car, jewellery, vacation, gadgets in general). more desperate government for money (tax audits, punishments). more social problems in general (foreclosures, crimes). forget popcorn. save your money, and get ready to help your self or your neighbours.

#20 MPM on 04.06.17 at 6:57 pm

The implications of a over heated market are far reaching. In Vancouver last year we saw the euphoria full hand. Slowly the pull back is happening, but the locals deny it – even though the stats are down every single month.
The larger effect on the city at large are starting to be felt. Rents are through the roof – even for buildings that are 40-50 yrs old. A 1 bdrm in my neighbourhood the last couple of years was going for $1000-$1200. This year $1500-1600. Nothing but a fresh coat of paint. Two bedrooms in my neighbourhood have jumped $500.
Downtown and in formerly hot-hoods, I am seeing plenty of businesses going under because of increased rent. On a major street near the beach, with plenty of local and summer traffic there are 7 pubs within a 8 blocks – remember this is a tourist area. Well, 5 of them are closing in the next 6 months. Rents have suddenly doubled. Most of these places have been in business for 20-30yrs. Part of the soul of the hood – no more.
So if you are a land owner and bought over 10 yrs ago, you are fine, but you may not have a city to enjoy any longer as everyone else will either pack up and move, or stay home to watch Netflix.
Good luck Toronto – fear what is next.

mpm

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.17 at 7:00 pm

@#158 Craig
“Were do you get those images.”
********************************************

Not hear.

#22 Brian Ripley on 04.06.17 at 7:07 pm

Charts for Sales Listings and Absorption Rates for the big 6 Canadian cities are up:
http://www.chpc.biz/sales-listings.html

Toronto we know appears limitless, but Vancouver caught a second wind this month as Ms Clarke’s helicopter sub prime drop gets the leftovers to bid up strata prices.

#23 Boombust on 04.06.17 at 7:09 pm

#1 Frank

If Canadian bubble cities such as Vancouver and Toronto ever see a “soft landing”, it’ll be the first time in history that has ever happened in a real estate market like those!

#24 Kris on 04.06.17 at 7:13 pm

Did I ever mention this may not end well?

Yes, I believe many times in the last 8-10 years.

Agreed, millenials who bought condos with paper-thin walls and high leverage WILL get hurt when this market turns. But that hardly represents all homeowners.

Most folks I know got into real-estate 3-5-7 years ago, if not earlier. They allowed headroom for income (loss) or rates (rise). They have positive cash flow on their rental properties, which tend to be townhomes, not condos with $1000 fees. They’ve seen their properties double in value.. and you know I’m being conservative when I say that (for GTA).

For example, whenever I put rental notice for my townhome, I get 3-4 good offers from young families who want that school catchment area. It’s been a great investment.. way way before today’s insane prices.

If prices dropped 30% or 50% from today’s mad levels, okay… It’s not end of the world for those who got into real estate responsibly.

#25 Interventionistista on 04.06.17 at 7:14 pm

While bears are salivating at the thought of some interventionist policies being delivered in the Ontario Budget to cool the GTA, lets just have a refresher on how ineffective government policies have been at ‘cooling the market’

* Elimination of the zero down/40 year mortgages – prices go up

* 20% Down requirement for 35 year amortizations – prices go up

* Tightening on HELOCs to 65% of the value of your home – prices go up

* Increased down payment requirements under T2 – prices go up

* New stress tests at 5 year fixed rate – prices go up

* BC Foreign Buyers Tax – looks like the market responded to the tax only to then realize that sales collapsed after China implemented new capital controls – not after the tax was implemented.

Government has a pretty good history of implementing toothless measures that fail to dampen the market – in part, because there is no will to stop the gravy train. The RE and ancillary services constitute 25% of the market – why kill the golden goose?

The much anticipated ‘affordability’ policies in Ontario will yield the same ‘dramatic results’ in terms of the direction of prices :)

#26 Alex S on 04.06.17 at 7:17 pm

If the crash occurs, how it is going to affect REITs such as Smart REIT, RioCan REIT, etc?

Thanks

#27 KC on 04.06.17 at 7:17 pm

Hi Garth!
I came across your blog in 2008 when I googled “housing bubble”. You were the only voice of reason I could find at the time. Thanks for taking the time to post daily and reminding us of the importance of investing and living within our means. You sir are a ROCKSTAR!

#28 mouldyinYVR on 04.06.17 at 7:18 pm

Vancouver has always been a boom an’ bust town. However, this boom has gone on for so long we’ve all lost sight of ‘normal’ in YVR.
Who knows when and how it will end.
For those of you in the GTA – don’t hold your breath!

#29 AGuyInVancouver on 04.06.17 at 7:20 pm

It would be ironic, though sadly typical, if the Feds finally act just ‘cuz its Toronto, after years of letting the middle class in Vancouver get pummeled by the real estate monster.

#30 ALSINCLAIR (CP24) on 04.06.17 at 7:20 pm

CP24 Ann Rohmer says in hot property Garth Turner does not know anything. House prices will never fall and its the best time to buy. Alsinclair looks so honest and trust worthy and tell us every evening to that its all because of lack of inventory. What a nice bunch!

#31 dontcallmeshirley on 04.06.17 at 7:24 pm

We’ll be underwhelmed by whatever corrective measures they come up with.

At most, not wanting voter backlash, we’ll get policy that nibbles at the edges and is easy to circumvent.

#32 ANON on 04.06.17 at 7:30 pm

Did I ever mention this may not end well?

Hmmm… In retrospect, you probably did a couple of times. OK, maybe a bit more. :)

#33 I'm stupid on 04.06.17 at 7:35 pm

This is looking a lot like 1989. The only difference is that govt is going to drop the hammer on housing so the outcome may be worse. They should have taken steps to avoid a bubble 5 years ago when it was evident that prices detached from incomes. I think it’s too late to engineer a soft landing and it’s going to end in tears.

#34 Timmy on 04.06.17 at 7:37 pm

Re#20 MPM: Soul in Vancouver? Gone long ago. When the Railway closed we saw the writing on the wall. Corrupt Christy and her developer stooge pals have created a place for plutocrats to park there money, thereby disenfranchising tax paying locals. Anyone stupid enough to vote Liberal deserves what they got.

#35 TRUMP on 04.06.17 at 7:39 pm

GARTH……explain something to me.

If these housing prices are totally out of whack then why are the big banks still writing up mortgage agreements for this brain-dead suckers??

#36 NO CRASH on 04.06.17 at 7:56 pm

No CRASH. No price decline. Nothing. This blog will still be writing about a pending crash or decline, 5 years from today.

Market is at a new equilibrium. Call it the decline of North American buying power and the rise the East. Sorry, but it’s true.

#37 paulo on 04.06.17 at 7:57 pm

#33 umm
Given the significantly higher debt load involved and significantly higher rise in prices, i think it will be far worse and far more reaching than ’89. likely take us to a recession that will take a long time to climb back from
it is not unreasonable to expect a 40 to 50% correction, more if its a box in the sky sans dirt, add to the above all of the other potential external events that could negatively the economy it is looking tough in the near term

#38 Frankg on 04.06.17 at 8:03 pm

Garth. Buyers need to be educAted. How can buyers today justify a $800,000 mortgage. How do they sleep. The economics behind these prices do not make sense. I just do not understand how an educated Torontoian would buy a crazy overpriced row house in this city.

#39 yorkville renter on 04.06.17 at 8:04 pm

#35 – banks arent the ones giving out mortgages… it’s all subprime lenders… head of HCG was canned, and they placed a sacrificial lamb to take the heat when it all comes crashing down

#40 Fed-up on 04.06.17 at 8:10 pm

“And what does Rosey want? Most importantly for the Bank for Canada to raise interest rates, despite the damage that would do to Halifax or Winnipeg.”

—————————————————————————-

Who cares? Their real estate is over-valued as well.

#41 wallflower on 04.06.17 at 8:11 pm

#35 TRUMP on 04.06.17 at 7:39 pm
GARTH……explain something to me.

If these housing prices are totally out of whack then why are the big banks still writing up mortgage agreements for this brain-dead suckers??
– – – —
you know, this reminds me, vendor take-back mortgages… maybe they will resurface as a common financial tool

#42 Damifino on 04.06.17 at 8:12 pm

#24 Kris

If prices dropped 30% or 50% from today’s mad levels, okay… It’s not end of the world for those who got into real estate responsibly
———————————-

No, not okay. It would sting anyone like salt in a gash.

Imagine you’d grown a TFSA to say $100K and after a year it fell back down to $60K. Well, that’s still more than the current contribution limit so you haven’t really lost anything, right? Easy come, easy go, ya figure?

#43 Lulu on 04.06.17 at 8:13 pm

We are TORONTO, the center of the universe, everything evolves around us, whatever happen outside, WE would not be affected …. PERIOD!!

This is the new normal, get used to it and you will feel better and live your normal life again, brick and mortar is the BEST investment you can ever have, so, dump your life saving in it is the way to go.. Housing Crash!? What is that? I never learn this term. I only know housing will only make you richer than you think and it’s TRUE!!

Look at Calgary, their oil been crashed for 2, going to 3 years now and you never see local newspaper talk about it or make a big deal out of it, so, it must stand pretty good eh! Ride it out and you are still coming ahead of other investment. My next guess is betting on PARKING SPOT in downtown TORONTO. Since we are the next NEW YORK and their locker could sell for 300k, so, our parking spot can do better, buy it now while is still pretty affordable before you regret it. Anyone?

#44 april on 04.06.17 at 8:17 pm

#7 – Don’t be an idiot. The price rise has nothing to do with whether or not Toronto is a world class city [which is isn’t]

#45 april on 04.06.17 at 8:18 pm

#10 – lowest price condo in Vancouver is listed at $259.000

#46 Adam on 04.06.17 at 8:20 pm

It is amusing that what has been going on in Vancouver for over a decade comes to Toronto and suddenly the Feds and the talking heads are all concerned about out of control house prices.
Garth, you left out what Rosy said on foreign money and taxing it. If you are an upper level bureaucrat in the communist party in Guangdong and have money to launder, welcome to Canada, we have houses to sell you! Just not in your first choice location (15% tax) – you have to go to Toronto now. In addition to a
tax, it might be time for outright limitations on foreign ownership. Real estate taxes need to go up and income taxes down. In the US property tax in some locations on a $2 million home is over $20,000 per year. In West Van it is under $6,000. No wonder we are the money laundering capital of the world – we subsidize property owners on the backs of people stupid enough to pay income tax in this country.
I like that the bank bosses are now complaining about out of control house prices. Who do they think is lending all the money to make this happen?
We have such a secure and wonderful financial system in Canada – banks write million dollar
Mortgages all insured by tax payers care of CMHC. CMHC needs to scrapped. Heaven forbid banks be responsible for the money they lend.
As I said before, in 2015 it cost 100% of the average Vancouverites BEFORE tax income to buy a home in the city. Then prices went up 30% in a year. And we somehow need emergency interest rates to stimulate the economy?
It’ll be interesting to see who all gets blamed when this mess blows up. Maybe Poloz and Mourneau will end up in prison. Ha! As if.
Thanks for letting me vent.
I almost feel better now being a deadbeat renter and income tax payer.

#47 traderJim on 04.06.17 at 8:22 pm

#35 Trump

Banks keep writing mortgages because

1) Bank execs don’t care about long term, just short term profits which give them the biggest salary bonus

2) Many mortgages are bundled up and sold off so that the bank doesn’t care if they go bad in future

3) CMHC insures mortgages for the banks so the taxpayer is on the hook, not the banks when things go south

#48 traderJim on 04.06.17 at 8:24 pm

Oh of course the biggest factor, the banks are too big to fail, so they know they will be bailed out by taxpayers if they screw up. So no way for them to lose.

#49 Blacksheep on 04.06.17 at 8:24 pm

NoName,

Just for conversations sake, what form of RE do you own? Do you think it’s current value will hold, or do you embrace Garth’s, sell it now mantra….

#50 Funky on 04.06.17 at 8:29 pm

“A giant sud!” That’s priceless Garth.

I’ve seen the future and it’s murder” Leonard Cohen

#51 millmech on 04.06.17 at 8:31 pm

Garth,
If all these bankers are so worried why don’t they raise their own mortgage rates as they do not need government approval to crank up rates 1%-2%.
It seems hypocritical for them to keep loaning people money to buy overpriced houses and yet keep announcing to the media that this has to be stopped.(reminds me of the local drug dealer on a street I used to live on complaining about all the property crime in the neighborhood after he started to sell crack)
The bankers are only worried about market share that is it, so they need the government to be the bad guy and give the banks the ok to start screwing the over extended general population.
Everybody that talks about real estate and debt says the system would not raise rates because people are living paycheque to paycheque and if they raised rates it would bankrupt a lot of people
Interesting times ahead!

#52 Vit on 04.06.17 at 8:32 pm

#5 I’m Not Poloz you keep talking about 50-cent Loonie every time you post — all right we got it, its about a time to come with some new ideas …

#53 Chaddywack on 04.06.17 at 8:35 pm

Funny how the government didn’t intervene until this started happening in Toronto! This crazy price escalation was happening in Vancouver for a good part of the last 10 years and governments were just sitting on their hands.

Suddenly it’s Toronto and they finally intervene. Once again proves that the federal government is biased towards Ontario.

They do have a good hockey team though. Go Leafs!

#54 dakkie on 04.06.17 at 8:41 pm

Toronto Real Estate Goes PARABOLIC! Banks Warn of Collapse After 33% Increase in 1 Year!
http://investmentwatchblog.com/toronto-real-estate-goes-parabolic-banks-warn-of-collapse-after-33-increase-in-1-year/

#55 realestaterocks on 04.06.17 at 8:41 pm

Why doesn’t anyone look at the parasites that call themselves realtors. I stopped counting of the stories I know of friends and family both buyers and sellers that included shady practices that have inflated the sale price of homes. There isn’t just a few bad apples the majority are unscrupulous SOBs.

Patently untrue. — Garth

#56 Ret on 04.06.17 at 8:44 pm

This will not be a 1989 groundhog day RE repeat. Prices probably doubled from 1985-1989. It was a short, steep run-up with inflation and jobs stoking the fire. The economy was doing fine, almost too fine. Good jobs were still widely available. Taxes were much less as a percentage of income than they are now.

Debt was dumb, saving was smart. No HELOC’s, LOC, easy consumer credit for luxury purchases etc.

Liar loans and soft doc(ument) mortgages did not exist. Mortgages were on the house and the bank had no intention of losing their money because they had not verified every detail of the property and the applicant.

Public sector pay did not lead private sector pay and benefits. Public sector wages were less in most cases. Now the public sector is the backbone of the economy. Large businesses are on taxpayer support or they have left.

2017 is a much different landscape. We are in uncharted territory with RE, the economy and our financial institutions.

Politically, mainstream Canada voted for a kinder, gentler, more taxed and stoned Canada. Apparently these the new Canadian centralist values that will carry us forward. What could go wrong?

It’s not going to be 1989 all over again, not even close.

#57 Blacksheep on 04.06.17 at 8:51 pm

It should have been R.P., not D.T.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LULzvg1gA5U

The world would have been, a different place.

#58 toronto1 on 04.06.17 at 8:52 pm

The more govt crowd is about to get its wish. Access to credit is what drives any market- leverage is what pushes it to new highs.

The momentum is starting to turn, the herd is starting to believe the bubble hype, thats all that matters, once the herd believes its a bubble its over- FOMO turns to Fear of paying too much. Once the houses that are listed start going no bid on offer dates, with the inevitable price hike cause they didnt get the crazy bids, this market will turn- just like 89- someone turned of a light switch………..

Mortgage Fraud is going to be non existent very soon- OSC and FSCO will go after any fraud in that industry in a scale never seen before

CMHC is going to change their terms and limit down their exposure- one CMHC mortgage per person or household, if your on title for more then one home- no CMHC for you

CMHC will stop being a secondary insurer in the market- no more bundling loans and having CMHC backstop those

When banks have too shoulder more risk- watch the credit markets dry up for all but the absolute best of borrowers.

CRA is going to go after anyone who has purchased a home and sold withing 24 months- most likely with a heavy hand

Foreign buyers tax coming 15-20%

The market is 2-3 months max from rolling over

#59 common sense on 04.06.17 at 8:54 pm

#35 Trump.

Because they are banks. if they could squeeze out a dime profit they would.

I just wish they would raise rates even .50 cent world wide and start this long over due crap storm.

No one held a gun to anyone who bought high…

#60 toronto1 on 04.06.17 at 8:56 pm

#55 realestaterocks

Dont worry about the realtors, new regs will encompass them as well, something like all offers must be registered and full price and conditions made known to all registered offers– that way sellers know what there up against.

regulation like never seen before

#61 common sense on 04.06.17 at 9:00 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUUdax5VFMQ

Released in 1982 and just as relevant today.

Replace Japan with Chinese…..

Garth could you pen lyrics of this quality?

#62 mike from mtl on 04.06.17 at 9:02 pm

#40 Fed-up on 04.06.17 at 8:10 pm

Who cares? Their real estate is over-valued as well.
///////////////////////////////////////////////////

Not sure where I read this from but something like incomes to prices in RE nationally are like 250% overvalued. Which I totally agree with, there’s zero reason for RE to have risen so much other than simply just unknown low rates.

Even here in QC, 400k+ for the 50 year old pieces of junk is totally overpriced. Especially considering the dead ‘economy’ and massive taxation here.

But the older I get the more I understand residential RE has zero basis in reality here or elsewhere in the world.

#63 DON on 04.06.17 at 9:08 pm

#36 NO CRASH on 04.06.17 at 7:56 pm
No CRASH. No price decline. Nothing. This blog will still be writing about a pending crash or decline, 5 years from today.

Market is at a new equilibrium. Call it the decline of North American buying power and the rise the East. Sorry, but it’s true.
*********

I take it, you are just visiting from another planet?

#64 RY 60 seconds mortgage approval on 04.06.17 at 9:09 pm

The Toronto subway is flooded with the RBC ad: 60 seconds mortgage approval.

Secured 2 of them for myself on my iphone, sipping my latte, while the train got stuck at Rosedale station for clearing the usual unexpected signal problem.

Alternatively, I could have just read todays news, the RBC CEO complaining about some real estate bubble, and stuff like that.

#65 Frances on 04.06.17 at 9:09 pm

I was just listening to this interview on Metro Morning about a mother planning to sell her house in the Avenue and Lawrence area to help her daughter and her boyfriend with a down payment on a house. Both Matt Galloway and the daughter were shocked to hear that the mom ‘only paid 229k’ in the mid-80s. The mom says, ‘it’s like winning the lottery!’

But, that was 32 years ago! 229k invested in the S&P over 32 years would yield an average of 2.6 million in today’s dollars, which might actually be more than what her house will sell for. So why do so many boomers think they have struck it rich, when in fact they would have made just as much, or more money in the markets? And let’s not forget the high interest rates of the 1980s that would have increased her monthly mortgage payments beyond the original 229K.

Here is a link to the interview: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/programs/metromorning/mom-daughter-downpayment-1.4058133

Also, where will the parents live after they sell their house to help their daughter and her boyfriend?

#66 Entrepreneur on 04.06.17 at 9:13 pm

“Royal Bank CEO Dave McKay “it could drag on consumer spending, locking up too much capital unproductively…” So true but yet our great leaders seem short-sighted to the future economy problem, too bad and really sad.

I still think the Banks are the third anti-Christ of Nostradamus. It started it to erupt in Europe and now the bank tellers have had enough and speaking out. And didn’t Nostradamus say it had limitless armies or similar.

Sir James blogger…I think you hit the nail when you said “first global(ist) real estate crash.” I also think that great leaders are too interested in other nations that they left behind the people in their nation, international trade. I always remember a orchard farmer saying that he cannot compete with cheaper apples from another country.

I think this is going to hit us harder than just real estate. This time around bursting bubble the backup economy (and the people that used to support it) is not there to catch any the fall.

#67 DON on 04.06.17 at 9:14 pm

#43 Lulu on 04.06.17 at 8:13 pm
We are TORONTO, the center of the universe, everything evolves around us, whatever happen outside, WE would not be affected …. PERIOD!!

This is the new normal, get used to it and you will feel better and live your normal life again, brick and mortar is the BEST investment you can ever have, so, dump your life saving in it is the way to go.. Housing Crash!? What is that? I never learn this term. I only know housing will only make you richer than you think and it’s TRUE!!

Look at Calgary, their oil been crashed for 2, going to 3 years now and you never see local newspaper talk about it or make a big deal out of it, so, it must stand pretty good eh! Ride it out and you are still coming ahead of other investment. My next guess is betting on PARKING SPOT in downtown TORONTO. Since we are the next NEW YORK and their locker could sell for 300k, so, our parking spot can do better, buy it now while is still pretty affordable before you regret it. Anyone?
***********************

You need to read more…there was news of a increase in delinquency rates in Alberta, up 34% from last year, some are selling the toys to pay the bills.

#68 Whaleback on 04.06.17 at 9:20 pm

@#158 Craig
“Were do you get those images.”
********************************************
@#158 Craig
“Were do you get those images.”
********************************************
#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.17 at 7:00 pm
Not hear.

***

Those guys, their hilarous

#69 common sense on 04.06.17 at 9:35 pm

How high will all the markets be up tomorrow?

Air strikes into Syria = Bullish, Toronto houses up 20% more by Monday!

#70 Trumpocalypse2017 on 04.06.17 at 9:37 pm

BREAKING NEWS!

It’s no longer just ridiculous tweets being fired by Trump…..

Trump has just fired 50 Tomahawk missiles at Syria.

Putin demands proof that Assad is to blame. He is ready to push back hard against this, while also attacking Ukraine and the Baltic states.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/06/postmortems-confirm-syria-chemical-attack-turkey-says

What happens now, when US missiles hit Russians as well, inadvertently or not?

Trumpocalypse begins.

Start stocking up. Tonight. Plan your escape from urban areas. Fuel up. Liquidate assets.

No one has a clue the horrors about to be unleashed.

Trumpocalypse has begun.

#71 WUL on 04.06.17 at 9:44 pm

Most worrisome so I am chillin’ with the fragrance of Azaleas and a cool one in McMurray. Masters on the PVR so about 50 hours of telly coming up.

Youse folks worry too much.

#72 Whaleback on 04.06.17 at 9:44 pm

#38 Frankg on 04.06.17 at 8:03 pm
…I just do not understand how an educated Torontoian would buy a crazy overpriced row house in this city.

****

We live a long way from TO and I have been dreaming of ways to get in on the action, until reality inevitably sets in. Still, I feel as though I am missing out, missing all the adrenaline rush of ‘potential’ $$$.
I think it is my business experience, not my business education that is keeping me from letting envy and greed run wild.

#73 WUL on 04.06.17 at 9:44 pm

Most worrisome so I am chillin’ with the fragrance of Azaleas and a cool one in McMurray. Masters on the PVR so about 50 hours of telly coming up.

Youse folks worry too much.

#74 YVR update on 04.06.17 at 9:52 pm

Damage already done to Toronto. Prices too high for new graduates.

Brain drain of professionals to USA will pick up steam as soon as Trump adopts merit based immigration system.

This is going to get ugly! Going to end up with wrinkles and immigrants who’ll shun paying taxes. All engineered so a few can make $$$$$.

#75 the other white meat(pork) on 04.06.17 at 9:57 pm

Did I ever mention this may not end well?

Yes, for the last 8 years, and those who ignored the prophesy have……made a million or more tax free dollars since then.

I love this blog and the basic message behind it though. Only recently did I figure out why. It appears that you’ve done very well for yourself Mr.T, in spite of not buying into the real estate bull market and enduring a decade of 6 % returns on ETFs. Creating employment for others is a gift that few can give and often is undervalued by the recipients.

So how did you make your money? It appears that you’ve worked for most of it. Thanks for the blog!

#76 TurnerNation on 04.06.17 at 9:59 pm

Gold went apesht two nights ago..and suddenly tonight one hour ago . VIX too. Something is up boys….some thing.

#77 Northwind on 04.06.17 at 9:59 pm

If this Morneau is the same Morneau who encourages speculation by refusing to implement any foreign speculation restrictions and house speculation capital gain tax in the federal budget in March, don’t expect any useful from this guy. He does not have the ability and gut to make the right decisions. Think of the fact that he could not see the house crisis under his nose during the budget time and took no actions, and now he is forced to dodge by the harsh reality – just a few weeks later. His lack of judgement is clear and laughable.

The sad truth is he is not alone. Look at that Poloz guy. The only thing he knows is to keep the interest near zero, and he wants even to have a negative interest rate. he seems does not know anything about economy, yet he is bold enough to say the current rampant speculation has nothing to do with his policy, what a moron and dishonest guy!

The gang has committed criminal negligence by ignoring the Canadians interests for too long. We need to introduce a system to make them accountable for what they are doing. Mark my words: unless measures are taken to stop the flooding of foreign money laundering in Canada, and send clear signal to curb domestic speculators, things will get worse.

#78 The Gouch on 04.06.17 at 10:03 pm

“And it may come sooner than most believe.” – Garth

——————————————————————

Nope. Not in TO. Not unless immigration is halted. And interest rates are raised. And foreign investment outlawed. And CMHC curtailed. None of that is going to happen. Anyone who says otherwise doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

#79 bdwysktrn on 04.06.17 at 10:05 pm

East van is BOOMING!

215,000 dollars over ask. small lot.

1112 ROSE STREET ask $1,499,000 sell $1,714,000 dom7

this one year after the epic 2016 crash in 604.

anything liveable is still moving well here.

ps trump just hit syria.

#80 bdwysktrn on 04.06.17 at 10:10 pm

also 1754 graveley – old teardown

SOLD 1.82 million.

took a few weeks but it is a bigger than avg lot.

still waiting for ‘cheaper’ houses in 604 for 19 years running.

don’t hold your breath in the gta.

#81 Deplorable Dude on 04.06.17 at 10:13 pm

Damn…Trump just lost his voting base….

#82 Cdn Mom on 04.06.17 at 10:13 pm

#76, a little over an hour ago, US launched 50 or 60 missiles into Syria. Syria is backed by Russia, among others. That’s why gold went.

#83 CTV 10:11 PM on 04.06.17 at 10:15 pm

CTV broadcast at 10:11 PM, US may consider action against Syria… long story about Bannon… no mentioning the Tomahawk missiles falling from the sky…

Canned MSM…

#84 WUL on 04.06.17 at 10:20 pm

Jinx speaking. I was about to offer congrats to the Leafs, their fans and organization. Another item for the Morneau, Sousa and Tory confab. Greed, speckers, foreign acquisition and empty seat taxes on ACC playoff doucats. You poor bastards. Ballard should have been Premier.

#85 For those about to flop... on 04.06.17 at 10:21 pm

Pink Pollen falling in North Vancouver.

These guys thought that last June was a good time to spend 2 m on a 1960 build and are now fighting to get the bulk of their money back.

North Vancouver is one of the few Greater Vancouver cities that is positive year over year ,so if the pollen is here it can be anywhere…

M42BC

1002 Clements Avenue, North Vancouver

Oct 28:$2,099,000
Apr 6: $1,998,000
Change: – 101000.00 -5%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyODYyMg==

#86 Spectacle on 04.06.17 at 10:25 pm

#18 Trumpocalypse2017 on 04.06.17 at 6:51 pm
Don’t worry, though.

As Canada’s housing bubble crashes, followed by the entire economy, we’ll have a very big distraction…at least as long as television service continues.

“Recent Russian actions suggest a new stage of the Russian threat to Ukraine—and potentially to the Caucasus, Belarus or the Baltic states as well—that could presage a new large-scale military operation.”
—————————–
You heard it first here, on the Turner Blog.

The U.S. just began bombing Tomohawks onto Syrian Mikitary Bases in retaliation for them gassing/killing their own people.

#87 T-Rev on 04.06.17 at 10:27 pm

#12 JSS – I’ll take that bet. It’s already off 5% from 2 yrs ago, and the trend line is now stabilizing. It shocks people to know that Edmonton is one of the most boring, stable markets in Canada. Even more boring than Winnipeg, Edmonton has been range-bound for ten years now. Same house sale prices have yet to regain their 2007 peak in E-town, despite interests rates half what they were then. With inflation factored in, a buyer from the peak in 2007 is down about 25-30%. The crash already happened.

We still have some of the highest wages in Canada. And the highest overall percentage of the population employed. And a sleeper economy of health care, scientific research, education, and pharmaceutical industry. The economy bottomed out in August/September last year and is in the rise. We’ll lead the country in growth this year. And you can get a 2000sq ft two story within 25 minutes of the Legislature for $450,000. Largest proportion of greenspace in any Canadian city. Youngest population in Canada.

Only thing Edmonton is in for is another year of boring stability. Take it from a guy on the ground level of this city’s economy- the worst is over here baring another major oil shock.

#88 Lobster Man on 04.06.17 at 10:35 pm

#26,

Crash or no crash, the folks at CIBC offered the following with respect to Canadian REITs:

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/good-times-may-be-ended-for-canadian-reits-cibc-warns

#89 Sham the Sham on 04.06.17 at 10:38 pm

An increase in the land transfer tax, empty house tax, foreign investor tax, speculator tax, etc. Why is the Liberal solution to every problem a increase in taxes?

#90 Racketeering is Racketeering on 04.06.17 at 10:40 pm

I think Morneau, Tory, and Sousa should have the ‘big meeting’ in Vegas. Maybe Casino Niagara.

#91 NoName on 04.06.17 at 10:43 pm

#49 Blacksheep on 04.06.17 at 8:24 pm

NoName,

Just for conversations sake, what form of RE do you own? Do you think it’s current value will hold, or do you embrace Garth’s, sell it now mantra….

—-

Detached older than me, well insulated with desperate need of some fresh paint and kitchen upgrades, kids school is/was few steps away, wifeys job 15min car, mine 25. only “problem is that my daughter in her infinite wisdom chosed hi. sch. that is on exactly opposite end of the city, what we do for our kids…
And you know whats funny that hi. sch. is just steps away of Garth street.

As for will house hold valuation maybe, maybe not our house it grew maybe 3,max of 4% per year since we moved in. But what i am seeing now that some people are getting ahead of themselves around neighborhood, i am fine any way market goes. If kids are out of school we would sell. Honestly my only fear regarding RE is city putting sidewalks in.

On a side note, kids just show me this.
https://youtu.be/9yslB3BkDm8

#92 45north on 04.06.17 at 10:43 pm

The goal: “To consider how we can collectively make progress to ensure that housing in the GTA is both affordable and accessible for the long term. ”

goal: to make housing more affordable without making it cheaper

goal: to make housing cheaper without down grading the equity of the home owners

goal: to lift the burden of their mortgages from home owners without down grading the banks

goal: to stop rampant real estate speculation without stopping real estate

goal: to slow rampant real estate speculation in the GTA without crippling economy activity in the rest of the country

goal: to accomplish the above by means of the government

talk about faith-based initiative!

#93 Annek on 04.06.17 at 10:54 pm

Just yesterday, I was listening to gossip in the team room ( these are health professionals working in a hospital) The one woman stated that condos are the ” best investment”.( I believe she owns a few in addition to her house) She stated that you can’t go wrong owning condos for investments. The other woman, who bought herself a house a few years ago, did not sell the condo she was living in, but is renting it out. She stated that she was not going to sell it because its such a good investment, but will pass it on to her kids( who are both under 5) I was so tempted to speak up, but zipped my mouth instead. I wonder what they will be saying a few years from now? Perhaps a few months from now?

#94 South Etobicoke Trump White House Liaison Office on 04.06.17 at 10:55 pm

How ironic, Trump just initiated a REAL war based on entirely fake news of a chemical attack, staged by a media production company…

Welp, Rand Paul, 2020.

#95 Ronaldo on 04.06.17 at 11:06 pm

#65 Frances

”Also, where will the parents live after they sell their house to help their daughter and her boyfriend?”
—————————————————————–
With the daughter and her boyfriend.

#96 Jas on 04.06.17 at 11:39 pm

Not sure where the news of softening RE prices is coming from.
I live in Surrey and see multiple offers on properties and selling over the listed price.
Same in Victoria and surrounding areas.
In and around Vancouver things are still hot in RE.

#97 Sir James on 04.06.17 at 11:39 pm

Trump bombs Syria.
Cue $100 oil and 85 cent Loonie?

#98 Al on 04.06.17 at 11:43 pm

Wynne’s specialty since 2003 is rent controls. Taxing foreigners who park their money in our residential homes until the Cannuck Buck goes up for air, not so much.

#99 Vit on 04.06.17 at 11:55 pm

# 65 But, that was 32 years ago! 229k invested in the S&P over 32 years would yield an average of 2.6 million in today’s dollars
irrelevant information . She did not payed 229k 32 years ago , she took a mortgage and had 5%=11k down payment . So she used 11 k to make 2 mil and if you invested 11k 32 years ago in S&P index you would make 130 k now .

#100 Guillaume on 04.07.17 at 12:00 am

Hi Garth,
How is it possible for people in France (probably other country also) to get a 2% fixed interest rate on a 25 year mortgage ?
Thanks

#101 JSS on 04.07.17 at 12:01 am

#87 T-Rev

Agreed. Edmonton is good city.
But tons of overbuilt condos and housing it appears

#102 Sunnyside on 04.07.17 at 1:13 am

Garth, are you getting on this “maybe” the tide has already turned kick for Toronto prices so you can relish repeating afterwards​ the same theme you’ve trumpeted with Vancouver’s fall? That the market was already falling before ill-timed government intervention just sped it up?

#103 here... on 04.07.17 at 1:14 am

Gold went apesht two nights ago..and suddenly tonight one hour ago . VIX too. Something is up boys….some thing.

………

USA bombing Syria

#104 YVR Update on 04.07.17 at 1:27 am

Vancouver deals partly happening overseas now. Part of transaction paid for overseas. Buyer and seller agree to lower MLS price so no flag and less PTT and FBT taxes paid.

Loopholes galore.

#105 hikerVancouver on 04.07.17 at 1:36 am

As I always said I will believe crash/price reduction is happening when I see it. Vancouver was crazy in 2005, based on salaries people are making, but just kept going. Is it going to keep going? I do not know. Did some prices went down? Yes. Is there really noticeable housing correction? Not close to it. Nothing to make it even remotely reasonable.

#106 VANCOUVER DUDES on 04.07.17 at 1:56 am

DELETED

#107 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.07.17 at 5:59 am

#11 Jerry on 04.06.17 at 6:45 pm
You can certainly thank the government for creating this mess, especially in BC:
n 2005 the BC Liberals removed government oversight from B.C.’s real estate agents, letting the industry self-regulate. Result: Brokers got rich and drove up prices by “shadow-flipping”* — reselling a property multiple times before a deal closes and profiting from each transfer using a sales contract clause.

When the public caught wind, Premier Clark’s response, to close the shadow flipping loophole and re-regulate realtors, failed to impress Martyn Brown, former chief of staff to premier Campbell.

Clark has refused to act “when confronted with the irrefutable evidence that B.C.’s housing and real estate industry was a scandal-ridden haven for shady realtors, money launderers, and dishonest brokers,” Brown wrote. “It was only when the political heat got too intense that she did her infamous ‘180’ by reregulating the industry that her government had for so long allowed to run amok.”
====================================
Sadly I do not relish voting NDP because the cronies who have Clark in their pocket will leave the province to “teach” the electorate a lesson. There wont be much to do for the developers who havent got a pay off point. So like last time government changed they went off to San Diego and Alberta etc.

The present Liberal Government is run by Criminals.

#108 Torontorocks on 04.07.17 at 6:19 am

Air BnB will take care of rent controls. The market is pooched

#109 Victoria D on 04.07.17 at 6:44 am

—Lots, apparently. Ontario’s Liberal premier says she’s about to bring the hammer down on landlords, lifting the cap on rent control for properties built after 1991 – to date excluded from tenant-friendly regs. Of course that’ll halt development of new rental units in its tracks, shock amateur landlords who’ll see more negative cash flow, lower cap rates and ultimately devalue investment real estate. The biggest losers – everybody who owns a condo.
————————————
No, the biggest losers will be renters, again, who’ll be looking at decreased number of available rents and soaring rental rates for all new lease agreements – there won’t be caps on new leases, obviously.

#110 dr. talc on 04.07.17 at 7:06 am

In case anyone needs more proof that we are ruled by the United Nations.

Tim Hudak:

“You can do all this, make a substantial difference in increasing the number of listings, and helping make home ownership more affordable for millennials without touching the greenbelt,” Hudak said.

Sense the fear? The greenbelt hoax is a religion, and Tim is still a choir boy
The Greenbelt, which no one asked for, is ‘untouchable’.

#111 dr. talc on 04.07.17 at 7:12 am

#94 South Etobicoke Trump White House Liaison Office on 04.06.17 at 10:55 pm
How ironic, Trump just initiated a REAL war based on entirely fake news of a chemical attack, staged by a media production company…

Welp, Rand Paul, 2020.

maybe the war is fake, like ‘wag the dog’

#112 I'm stupid on 04.07.17 at 7:34 am

#25 interventioista

You are correct in your assessment of how policies didn’t help cool the market. Bubbles are notoriously difficult to stop once they begin to inflate especially in Realestate. Those policies you referenced is what will cause an over correction. Once the market stalls it will collapse under its own weight and those same policies will limit a lot of first time buyers to help stabilize the market. We should see a year or two of stagnant prices before the bottom falls out. It’s never different, this cycle has repeated itself for hundreds of years.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.17 at 8:12 am

@#68 Whaleback
“Those guys, their hilarous”
********************************************

Know I’m knot.

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.17 at 8:19 am

Well.
Now trump gets to play with missles and bombs in foreign Arab countries…and with Allies of Russia no less.
All in his first 100 days as Prez.
One wonders if he invested in Raytheon , Honeywell and Boeing stock before the poo hits the fan.
Next up!
Embarrassing the US while eating dinner with the leader of China at Mar-A-Lago.
Damn this presidential thingy is getting kinda fun!

#115 Millmech on 04.07.17 at 8:38 am

Vit
She used leverage ,so keeping apples to apples you take the full price of her leveraged amount that she borrowed to invest and compare that to market returns.

#116 maxx on 04.07.17 at 8:58 am

“To consider how we can collectively make progress to ensure that housing in the GTA is both affordable and accessible for the long term. I am concerned that dramatic house price increases will have long-term implications for housing affordability and housing market stability.”

This comment’s so stupid it’s embarrassing.
Too little, too late.

Yes, why don’t we, in true Canadian fashion, consider, monitor closely, dialogue, exchange ideas, write a mountain of papers on the subject, all whilst keeping our fingers firmly planted where the sun doesn’t shine.
And take Friday’s off.
Permanently.
And we’re paying dearly for this schlock.

Hooray for the “middle class”.

#117 Victor V on 04.07.17 at 9:04 am

Canada’s job market again blows away forecasts with 19,400 gained

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-job-market-again-blows-away-forecasts-with-19400-gained&pubdate=2017-04-07

#118 maxx on 04.07.17 at 9:07 am

Btw, great post Garth.
Looks like marriage is becoming more of a hedge fund now……

#119 Ole Doberman on 04.07.17 at 9:43 am

#2 For those about to flop… on 04.06.17 at 6:32 pm

#1 Frank on 04.06.17 at 6:26 pm
This is all deja vu from last year with Vancouver. Still hasn’t gone wrong. The run up stopped in Calgary, Van and eventually in Toronto but no piper has been paid. It may end fine.
———————————————————-
Go on Rentfaster.ca map search in Calgary to see the flood of blue dots of those trying to hang on by renting.

After these don’t rent out and rates start rising over the next 3 years you’re going to see a RE Armageddon.

#120 Lee on 04.07.17 at 9:52 am

#117 Victor V,

Correct. You forget to mention however that 95% of those 19,000 “jobs” were self-employed, some where people work for family businesses and do not get paid, and the annual rate of wage gains is 1.1%. At that rate employers can eventually have all the employees they want because they won’t be paying them anything. You really should read more than just the headlines.

#121 Kris on 04.07.17 at 9:55 am

#24 Damifino.
Imagine you’d grown a TFSA to say $100K and after a year it fell back down to $60K.
—-

Selling price only matters when I’m ready to sell – Folks with a longterm view are not looking to sell for 15yrs, perhaps not even then (Many families I know, plan to hand over their investment properties to their kids as inheritance.)

Suppose I got a townhome for 350K about 4yrs ago. Say it’s worth 600K now (I’m in GTA, you know I’m being very conservative) Do I want that home to be worth 600K? Not really, who cares! I’m not selling any time soon, so I prefer it’s worth LESS actually.. 500K or 400K or even 300K.. That’s less property taxes from my pocket, as I generate an income stream from it.

If I’m looking 10-15-20 yrs, market fluctuations don’t matter much.. It’s all about balanced approach to real estate without over-leveraging.

It’s short-sighted to think “Sell/Rent = Good, Owning Home = Bad”, which seems to be the mantra of some folks on this blog. That’s been catastrophic advice over the last 8-10 years, that’s my point.

#122 Alex n Calgary on 04.07.17 at 10:21 am

My sister in Nanaimo just sold their house, nice enough, new, but on the edge of town (like it matters in nanaimo) bragging about it across facebook, over asking, multiple offers, we built it as a FLIP (why do people always say that? it horrifies me) its about 3 houses away from a trailer park, there was a guy riding a straight pipe dirt bike up and down the street last I was there, and leftover hillbilly lifted Diesels from Alberta screaming up and down, yet somehow, 600k. No jobs in that town, just retirees and BC Ferry employees, spec flippers will buy anything.

The local govs want to appease the population about unaffordable housing, but I really feel are totally ignorant to the real dangers of a housing bubble explosion. Keep those tax dollars rolling, and put on a mild foreign buyers tax that will do nothing.

You’d think they’d even blame Carney\F at this point, I guess not until the bubble bursts right? I think everyone feels they are special and different in Canada, especially the politicians. This won’t end will indeed!!! how long can the madness progress? (family members who post such brags on facebook about housing may get disowned!)

#123 Capt. Serious on 04.07.17 at 10:30 am

#121 Kris
It’s short-sighted to think “Sell/Rent = Good, Owning Home = Bad”, which seems to be the mantra of some folks on this blog. That’s been catastrophic advice over the last 8-10 years, that’s my point.

An alternative point of view is the advice has been getting more accurate over the last 8-10 years. Nobody saw interest rates going to 0. Everything looks clear in retrospect, but just prior to the GFC the BoC rate was over 4% which was already low by historical standards .
I think your best case scenario for GTA prices going forward is they’ll track higher with population growth, but the worst case could be a lot worse as demand will fall due to higher borrowing costs.
Again, nobody rational is saying don’t own real estate (I do, but not in the GTA), but a) payments should take up a reasonable proportion of one’s income, and b) it shouldn’t be your only asset.

#124 Kris on 04.07.17 at 10:43 am

#119 Ole Doberman.

Calgary’s problem, when jobs disappear, all bets are off. That’s hardly the case with GTA.

When I seek new tenants I see multiple families with good credit.. I end up turning away responsible folks, all the time. If this is the case when home ownership is at historic levels (70% of population, is it?), then how can it be bad for the rental market if the govt steps in to put more barriers to home ownership?

What & Where matters, of course. I have a townhome in a good school zone, and some young parents prefer a townhome over a condo (kids have a backyard to play).. All that helps.

#125 Stock picker on 04.07.17 at 10:47 am

Never fear……more Liberal manipulation is here. Did you just see the magical employment numbers ? Thousands upon thousands of persons on the dole who ran out of weeks have suddenly been reclassified as “self employed”. Now we all know those guys are going to be rich in no time as the Liberal government just announced in the new budget tax plan. Hell, maybe the unemployed can recategorize themselves as doctors and pay double tax……it’s a plan that will sink Trudeaus deficit in no time. After all, isn’t Canada the land of opportunity for small business? Isn’t it grant…..no one is ever poor in Canada…..they just get self employed!!!!!!!!Yay!!!!!

#126 Bat Flipper on 04.07.17 at 10:50 am

Bank borrows money dirt cheap 0%-1%
Bank lends money to home buyer at 2.5%-3% (repeats multiple times due to fractional reserve banking)
Bank insures loans as ABS.
Sells them to insurance, investment, mortgage companies.
Risk free profit!

why are they scared? if there is a bubble and it bursts, then their risk free returns will dry up because CMHC won’t be able to carry the load.

When the pendulum swings hard one way, it will swing back just as hard the other way.

#127 traderJim on 04.07.17 at 10:53 am

#114 Fartz

President Trump ordered an attack on a military base that belonged to Assad, whose ally is Russia.

You seem particularly confused about the facts today.

No doubt you still believe President Trump is a puppet of Putin.

What’s the colour of the moon in your world?

#128 TurnerNation on 04.07.17 at 10:56 am

When it comes to most profitable business in the world…what to believe. The first casualty?

Pick your side : https://stocktwits.com/message/79565970

Ps we have a Zero Tolerance policy wink wink…

#129 My name is Debt Free on 04.07.17 at 10:58 am

This may not end well? It ends very well for me recently. Sold my 13 year old house for 305K over asking. Funny thing is that was what I paid for my house back in 2004. Didn’t really done much to it other than the fence and partially finished basement.

#130 traderJim on 04.07.17 at 10:59 am

#97 Sir James

“Trump bombs Syria.
Cue $100 oil and 85 cent Loonie?”

Or maybe $52 oil and 74.5 cent loonie?

Hope you don’t look after your own investments.

#131 For those about to flop... on 04.07.17 at 11:07 am

Hey Broadway,wanna tell me the score on these ones?

This game is this years Pokemon Go.

You run around trying to get your money back after getting caught speculating without losing your Walmart undies.

Most likely got out of jail ,but you never know after the last lot we did.

5830 Alma st. Vancouver

11991 No 2 Rd Rich

4611 Pendlebury Rd Rich

3140 Springfield Dr Rich

I saw your other posts, one went well over assessment and one well under.

Even Betsy DeVos calls that a draw…

M42BC

#132 traderJim on 04.07.17 at 11:08 am

As predicted, populist President Trump moves to claim the middle, pissing off the extremes on left and right.

Pretty soon the ‘Hitler’ and ‘Russia’ hysteria will end (the Syria strike may have put the final nail in those coffins) and I’ll be able to stop defending the guy against the hysterical folks and be able to criticize his middle of the road, bordering on lefty economic policies.

He has some good points (anti-regulation, lower taxes, secure borders) and some bad ones (import duties, if he goes there).

He’s setting the R’s up for a dynasty, if they aren’t too stupid to blow it.

But it will be a middle-of-the-road dynasty, nothing great, nothing disastrous.

If it saves us from the rabidly anti-free speech, anti-individual rights lefties, I’ll take it as a win. I gave up on hoping for a really good government anywhere in the world looooong ago.

#133 Robbing "Bill" Hood on 04.07.17 at 11:08 am

For one who previously came against market intervention of the stupid kind, you sure are talking about it as if you wish they do it to save your bacon.

On the other hand, what do you think the renewed war mongering in Washington may do for interest rates and reputation of Canada as one of the few sane places left in the world and what that means for our housing market… Eh?

#134 traderJim on 04.07.17 at 11:17 am

#70 Trumpocalypse

This probably won’t reach you in your underground bunker, but how’s the Spam taste? Still good after 40 years in the can?

Speaking of spam, maybe I am foolish to not realize Trumpocalypse is being sarcastic. It seems obvious now, but at the height of the hysteria it seemed plausible he/she was serious.

#135 maxx on 04.07.17 at 11:22 am

#19 ShawnG in TO on 04.06.17 at 6:57 pm

“a financial bubble is not a result of failed monetary policies. it is emotional, irrational, and large scale reaction of market participants. a herd action. so you can’t analyse it logically or rationally.”

Good post. I have a teensie-weensie disagreement with the above though. Inasmuch as it is generally correct, tptb, who enact monetary policy, need to take into account the full nature of the people it will affect.
Most financial decisions are not made on pure reasoning. They may be calculated ad infinitum, but the trigger is for the most part, decidedly emotional.
TPTB cannot simply wash their well-manicured paws of this inalienable, human component of the electorate.

#136 maxx on 04.07.17 at 11:46 am

#20 MPM on 04.06.17 at 6:57 pm

These behemoth rent increases are extortion. Pure and simple. And in a totally legal, up yours, take it or leave it, kinda way.

Perhaps people ought to consider letting their leases go and pitch tents, en masse, in public parks. :-) There are plenty of big name coffee shops and twee croissant places waiting to replace those pubs to cater for meals and ablution.

One big benefit would be no hydro bills. That would free up a lot of cash!! This could be one economic fix that would boost retail big-time! ;-)))

#137 For those about to flop... on 04.07.17 at 11:54 am

Someone posted about this house a month or two back.

They just chopped 3m off the price tag ,but are still going for a 20% profit despite the detached market in the Westside of Vancouver being down to its axles.

They are into it 15.5m ,which is an absolute bargain to have a waterfront view of the cargo ships coming and going…

M42BC

3241 Point Grey Road, Vancouver
Feb 5:$21,800,000
Apr 6: $18,800,000
Change: – 3000000.00 -14%

#138 IHCTD9 on 04.07.17 at 11:56 am

#143 bill on 04.06.17 at 12:19 pm
#140 IHCTD9 on 04.06.17 at 11:58 am

”a very old hammer mill ”
how big and how old I wonder??
runs on steam?
I would love to see a picture if thats the case…
a couple of my favourite ‘steam videos’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhlJp1VZMB8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Z8MIXXDPls
__________________________________

It’s a small agricultural unit form the early 50’s. Built in Wisconsin, has 60 hammers in it, needs 50hp to run, uses a flat belt pulley drive (I am changing that due to switching over to a stationary engine). Multiple screens for it, and it has a cyclone as well for separating fines and dust from the milled material.

Similar deal as this:

http://cf.ltkcdn.net/antiques/images/orig/139083-400×300-hammermill.JPG

#139 Kris on 04.07.17 at 12:04 pm

#123 Capt Serious.

Agree with most of your points. I think (hope) demand will absolutely fall in the GTA.. This is unsustainable.

But after GFC, I saw plenty of reports saying rates may stay low or go lower for foreseeable future.. Almost everybody agreed it was uncharted territory, at least.

Yet, I recall reading this blog then, and there was almost “messianic certainty” about imminent housing collapse, even “it’s started, sell now” sort of thing.. Also repeated projections of rate increases that never panned out. I just think economic analysts need to be careful seeing things as so ‘black or white’.

If an analyst is committed to a particular conclusion (the title of the blog is arguably a clue), it can be very easy to sub-consciously miss or ‘tune out’ evidence that doesn’t support our pre-conceived notions.

#140 Stock picker on 04.07.17 at 12:24 pm

Bay St points the finger of blame directly at Poloz for keeping rates so low that a conflagration has been set.

#141 James on 04.07.17 at 12:50 pm

#5 I’m Not Poloz on 04.06.17 at 6:33 pm
Exporter disorder poster boy Poloz wants to lower the Loonie to 65 cents U.S. next week!
What to do?
Poloz really wants a 60-cent Loonie! There were even talks that if Trump lower corporate tax rates in the near future, Poloz suggested that a 50-cent Loonie will help with boosting exports to the U.S.A.
Justin Trudeau doesn’t even know about fiscal and monetary policy because he keeps on talking like a Pokemon “I am a feminist” all the time.
Canada is royally screwed. We are definitely going to be living under a 60-cent Loonie this decade if Poloz gets it his way to devalue the Loonie!
…………………………………………………………………….
My company imports probably about 75% of the raw materials from the USA. We process the material here and only add Canadian labour and around 25% of Canadian content to the end product. A 60 cent dollar will devastate our costing and could further lead to price increases with our customers in Canada and around the world. It wouldn’t take long for the low Canadian dollar to lead to layoffs at one of our plants. As our costs go up we have no choice but to cut profit otherwise customers can go somewhere else and get a better price. Poloz and Trudeau are blind to the day to day operations and interactions of Canada US imports and exports. Trudeau has never worked in business or manufacturing so we can just right him off as a typical socialist. Stephan Poloz coming from Oshawa I would have expected to know how manufacturing works but alas he is just another banker. A low Canadian dollar hurts Canada more than the Unionized idiots that promote this stuff think. You can not hide profitability and competitiveness behind a currency that is out of your control.

#142 Sonny on 04.07.17 at 12:50 pm

‘Cease and desist’: Bay Street calls on Poloz to drop rate cut talk and take aim at housing

https://www.bnn.ca/cease-and-desist-bay-street-calls-on-poloz-to-drop-rate-cut-talk-and-take-aim-at-housing-1.718186

#143 jess on 04.07.17 at 1:03 pm

look what happened in the uk subsidy

The amount landlords earn from housing benefit – £9.3 billion in 2015 and twice the figure a decade ago, according to the National Housing Federation – is thought to partly stem from the conversion of homes into smaller properties.

….
“Legislation needs to be more joined up to prevent some landlords taking advantage of people at the sharp end of our housing crisis.”

In February, a landlord was banned from letting property in two London boroughs for 10 years because of the dangerous state of the homes she rented out.

Katia Goremsandu was the first landlord to be given a criminal behaviour order, after a successful prosecution by Westminster council. A flat she let in Gloucester Terrace was found to have no fireproofing, no mains-connected fire alarm, and no fixed heating.

A spokesperson for the Department for Communities and Local Government said: “We’re determined to crack down on rogue landlords. New measures that came into force just this week give councils the extra powers they need to tackle the worst offenders and poor-quality rental homes in their areas.

“Thanks to our £12 million funding, more than 5,000 landlords are now facing enforcement action or prosecution. We’ll continue to work closely with local authorities, including to investigate any fraudulent housing benefit claims.”

Last year, BuzzFeed News visited a woman who risked going blind because of the damp in her tiny one-bed flat, which was previously the bedroom of a large Victorian house. There are now 11 flats in what was once a single family home, all managed by the same landlords and all paid for through housing benefit.

#144 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 04.07.17 at 1:16 pm

I can hear it now…

“You mean real estate CAN go DOWN? That’s impossible…Why didn’t our realtor tell us! They said it is always a good time to buy!”

#145 cramar on 04.07.17 at 1:19 pm

Not end well!?

People might want to consider how they will pay for food.

The yearly cauliflower fiasco is upon us! Two stores locally selling for $5/head, third for $6.

Let these high mortgage owners eat caviar instead!

#146 bdwy sktrn on 04.07.17 at 1:28 pm

flopper,
11991 No 2 Rd Rich ask 1.2 deal at 1.44
nada on the others.

if you bought a house and did a quick cosmetic upgrade then resold for a profit would it be a flop flip, or a flip flop?

ps how’d ya do in that ankle? is it better yet?

#147 Damifino on 04.07.17 at 1:32 pm

#121 Kris

It’s short-sighted to think “Sell/Rent = Good, Owning Home = Bad”, which seems to be the mantra of some folks on this blog. That’s been catastrophic advice over the last 8-10 years, that’s my point.
————————————

And I concede your point, except for the catastrophic advice part. I sold two properties 11 and 7 years ago respectively. In other words, I took all the available money off the ‘single asset’ table and diversified it.

Those funds have spun off my living expenses (and much more) over that period of time and the funds are preserved to this day.

The mantra of this blog is actually this: Profit from irrational exuberance in the market while the chance exists. Huge blocks of unanticipated money come along rarely for most people and for some, never.

I find it hard to believe one could slough off 50% worth of gains that were never crystallized, especially when that could represent several hundred thousand dollars.

Would you really be cool with that? Would you say “well, there’s probably 100% growth coming over the next decade, so no sweat”

It’s about risk and opportunity. Real estate is now so insanely overvalued in Toronto it would be short-sighted not to ‘rescue’ those gains if you’re fortunate enough to be in that position.

If you read this blog regularly you’ll know the most powerful tool the investor has for maintaining wealth is balance. When your home has gone the way of a 17th century Dutch Tulip, it really is time to harvest gains.

#148 bdwy sktrn on 04.07.17 at 1:57 pm

#142 Sonny on 04.07.17 at 12:50 pm
‘Cease and desist’: Bay Street calls on Poloz to drop rate cut talk and take aim at housing

https://www.bnn.ca/cease-and-desist-bay-street-calls-on-poloz-to-drop-rate-cut-talk-and-take-aim-at-housing-1.718186
————————-
““In 2014, it concluded that housing was overvalued by as much as 30 per cent. They could update that figure. It’s probably above 40 per cent nationally now.”

…………
is ‘housing’ overvalued or is LAND in to/van overvalued?

there is an endless supply of huge luxury houses for low, low prices in thousands of beautiful small towns and rural areas across the country.

the ‘building’ part of assessments has not really increased much over decades. the LAND part has exploded.

it’s a rush on urban land in 2 cities and outlying areas.

an ever growing population meets a finite supply.
this will not stop for a long time.

#149 preferred bubbles on 04.07.17 at 2:14 pm

#129 My name is Debt Free on 04.07.17 at 10:58 am

This may not end well? It ends very well for me recently. Sold my 13 year old house for 305K over asking. Funny thing is that was what I paid for my house back in 2004. Didn’t really done much to it other than the fence and partially finished basement.

===

Good for you.

The only question is what’s next.

You exchanged real estate to cash, that you will probably convert most likely to virtual properties: securities.

Some argue, you are buying into an other bubble, just like the buyer of your house.

Are there any forces beyond your control already lining up to strip you from your next asset class?

It would not be the first time in history.

#150 Tony on 04.07.17 at 2:16 pm

Re: #12 JSS on 04.06.17 at 6:45 pm

Edmonton is in the midst of a second crash in the last ten years. Resale condos today built in the year 2007 are already worth less than half of what they sold for that year 2007. The year 2007 may stand the test of time for many decades to come as zenith or apex for home prices this century in Edmonton.

#151 me again on 04.07.17 at 2:28 pm

#92 45north on 04.06.17 at 10:43 pm
The goal: “To consider how we can collectively make progress to ensure that housing in the GTA is both affordable and accessible for the long term. ”

goal: to make housing more affordable without making it cheaper

goal: to make housing cheaper without down grading the equity of the home owners

goal: to lift the burden of their mortgages from home owners without down grading the banks

goal: to stop rampant real estate speculation without stopping real estate

goal: to slow rampant real estate speculation in the GTA without crippling economy activity in the rest of the country

goal: to accomplish the above by means of the government

talk about faith-based initiative!

—-

UK= Council Flats

Canada=

Toronto Community Housing
Ontario Housing
First Nations Reserves

#152 DW on 04.07.17 at 2:39 pm

RE: Damifino

Nicely said – it’s not about not buying real estate, this blog is about balance and not putting all your money in a single asset.

#153 Nemesis on 04.07.17 at 3:07 pm

“Did I ever mention this may not end well?” – HonGT

#InOtherNewsDenouement,Or… #AChickenRealtor®InEveryPot?…

[ColonialTimes] – Number of Greater Victoria real estate agents nearly matches listings

…” The number of listings in Greater Victoria’s hot property market has dropped to the point where there is almost one real estate agent for every listing…

…A decade ago, there were 3,079 listings in March, nearly double what we see today. Real estate agent numbers fluctuate but were close to today’s figure, at 1,310 in 2007.

There were 929 properties sold through the Victoria Real Estate Board last month, a drop of 17.1 per cent from 1,121 sales in the same month last year.

“We are working really hard for the fewer transactions that are out there,” said Real Estate Board president Ara Balabanian. “It is still a very active market. There have been times when it has been far less active than this.”

The low number of listings “implies that there are a lot of realtors who do not have a listing on the go at this time,” he said.”…

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/number-of-greater-victoria-real-estate-agents-nearly-matches-listings-1.14432517

#154 For those about to flop... on 04.07.17 at 3:26 pm

#146 bdwy sktrn on 04.07.17 at 1:28 pm
flopper,
11991 No 2 Rd Rich ask 1.2 deal at 1.44
nada on the others.

if you bought a house and did a quick cosmetic upgrade then resold for a profit would it be a flop flip, or a flip flop?

ps how’d ya do in that ankle? is it better yet?

////////////////////////////

Hey Broadway,I would say the one at No 2 Rd was a flop flip but as long as they didn’t pump too much into it they should have been made whole.

The guys at Alma st are into it for 3.5m so they are probably not sleeping to well.

One of the flips nearby that has been on the market for months and months changed realtors and photos and so we will see how that works out for them.

Which leads me to answer your final question as I walked by it on the way up to Fraser St.

I just got back from a 30block walk ,which is the furthest I have walked since the surgery.Its taking a long time but it seems to be slowly getting better each day.

Going away to Monterey next week, I will import my limp with me ,but it will be a good way to thank my wife for looking after me and also she could do with a break as we didn’t get to go away at Xmas or Spring break.

Eastside of Vancouver definitely out performed the Westside last month and actually I saw a couple of developments getting started where they bought the land a couple of years ago and so they must see enough meat on the bone to proceed.

I’m glad you help me out as we are just trying to show both sides of the story…

M42BC

#155 april on 04.07.17 at 4:04 pm

So condo owners will be the “losers”. I understand this is because more condos will be for sale due to landlords needing to get rid of their negative cash flow investments?? Glad I don’t own a condo.

#156 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.17 at 4:25 pm

@#127 traderjim
‘President Trump ordered an attack on a military base that belonged to Assad, whose ally is Russia.
You seem particularly confused about the facts today”
********************************************

uhhhh. You seem to be one confused.

“Arab country” aka Assad’s Syria.
Syria…. allied with Russia…..

Where’s the confusion?
Or were you unable to “catch” what I was “throwin’ ” ?

And the color of the moon in my world is “flesh toned” and hairy……IF you must know.

#157 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.17 at 4:37 pm

@#122 Alex in Calgary

“just retirees and BC Ferry employees, spec flippers will buy anything.”
********************************************

Your description of Nanaimo was bang on and had several coworkers from the Island in stitches……
As for “retirees” and BC Ferries “workers”….Isnt that the same thing?

#158 Contrarian Coyote on 04.07.17 at 4:38 pm

#137 For those about to flop… on 04.07.17 at 11:54 am
Someone posted about this house a month or two back.

They just chopped 3m off the price tag ,but are still going for a 20% profit despite the detached market in the Westside of Vancouver being down to its axles.

They are into it 15.5m ,which is an absolute bargain to have a waterfront view of the cargo ships coming and going…

M42BC

3241 Point Grey Road, Vancouver
Feb 5:$21,800,000
Apr 6: $18,800,000
Change: – 3000000.00 -14%

===

Haha, can only imagine the ‘view’ of cargo ships!

For anyone who has lived and/or travelled outside of Canada, you can probably see right through the BS/bubble. For some of these places in Vancouver (and Toronto to a lesser extent) to be worth $10+ million, you’d be better be getting something more like a modernized medieval estate/chateau.

Just a quick scan of international real estate offerings in the range of this price really puts Vancouver/Toronto real estate in its proper place.

So roughly, $18.8 million CDN converts to USD $14 million or EUR $13.2 million.

Have fun!

http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sitemap

#159 A Reply to #132 traderJim on 04.07.17 at 4:39 pm

You wrote, “… Trump moves to claim the middle … his middle of the road … economic policies … setting … up for a dynasty … a middle-of-the-road dynasty, nothing great, nothing disastrous.”

Are you saying that, when he reverses himself on every position he’s ever taken (e.g., 5 different positions on abortion in 3 days), you just take an average?

According to Gallup, on the day he left office (Jan. 19, 2017), Obama had a 59% approval rating and a 37% disapproval rating. Trump currently (April 6, 2017) has a 40% approval rating and a 54% disapproval rating.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

You wrote, “… I’ll be able to stop defending the guy against the hysterical folks….”

Do you mean like FBI Director James Comey and Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr? Do you know that they’re both investigating Russian interference in the November election, including an examination of any ties to President Trump?

Trump is proving to be one of the greatest tests to American democracy in its history.

#160 maxx on 04.07.17 at 4:39 pm

#25 Interventionistista on 04.06.17 at 7:14 pm

“Government has a pretty good history of implementing toothless measures that fail……”

Oh, but it’s SEEN to be doing something don’tcha know!! I’m amazed that image consultants don’t requisition capes and wind machines for those endless warm and fuzzy selfie moments.

#161 Tony on 04.07.17 at 5:43 pm

Re: #160 maxx on 04.07.17 at 4:39 pm

Maybe if they got a clue and made the banks responsible for the mortgages like in other countries they wouldn’t need closed door meetings to discuss useless policies that do nothing.

#162 bill on 04.07.17 at 6:25 pm

#138 IHCTD9 on 04.07.17 at 11:56 am

#143 bill on 04.06.17 at 12:19 pm
#140 IHCTD9 on 04.06.17 at 11:58 am

”a very old hammer mill ”
how big and how old I wonder??
runs on steam?
I would love to see a picture if thats the case…
a couple of my favourite ‘steam videos’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhlJp1VZMB8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Z8MIXXDPls
__________________________________

It’s a small agricultural unit form the early 50’s. Built in Wisconsin, has 60 hammers in it, needs 50hp to run, uses a flat belt pulley drive (I am changing that due to switching over to a stationary engine). Multiple screens for it, and it has a cyclone as well for separating fines and dust from the milled material.

Similar deal as this:

http://cf.ltkcdn.net/antiques/images/orig/139083-400×300-hammermill.JPG

we used to have a ‘hammer hog’ sort of like that at the sawmill. it used a very similar principal… always fun to push a big chunk of wood in…
are you feeding chickens or making whisky with it?

#163 maxx on 04.07.17 at 7:07 pm

#161 Tony on 04.07.17 at 5:43 pm

You bet.

#164 chalkie on 04.07.17 at 9:08 pm

Garth, you have been crying wolf on the crash so long now, eventually recessions happen, so one day you will be right for once.

A housing correction does not take a recession to occur. — Garth