No country for old investors

DOUG By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

You’re going to die.

And you’ll probably get really sick first and, at the same time, your brain won’t be functioning nearly as well as it used to.

So, on that cheerful note, let’s look more closely at these unavoidable realities from a financial planning perspective.

Canadians live to about 82. But that’s the average. When assessing the durability of your retirement income give yourself some buffer room. What happens if you live five years longer than average? 10 years? If you unexpectedly morph into Betty White then this may strain your financial resources. Canadians retire, on average, at about 64, so that’s 18 years your money needs to last. But assume you’re above average: budget for at least 25 years. This may require adjusting your retirement lifestyle, working longer, saving more or leaving less to your grabby family.

Also remember to ‘accelerate’ your required retirement income. You should always account for inflation, but don’t forget to also factor in your inevitable declining health and the associated rising health care costs. In other words, don’t simply take the income that you’ll need at 64 or 65 and keep this constant throughout your expected lifetime. Research does suggest that discretionary spending declines as we age (we may travel less in our 70s and 80s, for example), which is fair. However, inflation impacts health care costs disproportionately and evidence also supports lower expected investment returns over time, in part due to an aging North American population and persistently low interest rates. Returns on US bonds, for example, have been steadily declining now for decades. I would argue that, even though retirees may spend less as they age, the reduced discretionary spending will be more than offset by rising health care costs, increased longevity and diminishing investment returns (you might, for instance, assume a 7% annualized portfolio return in your first decade of retirement, but lower this to 5% in your second decade). However, it’s those health care costs that loom largest.

According to Fidelity, the average 75-year-old has three chronic conditions and takes five or more prescription drugs. Further, according to the Canadian Institute for Health Information, total health care expenditure in Canada in 2015 was approximately $220 billion, or more than $6,000 per person. Health care spending has also been growing at a 6% annual pace over the past 40 years, well in excess of inflation. While many of these costs are covered by government resources, roughly a quarter are not. Keep in mind also that these costs ramp up significantly as we get older with the average annual health care expenditure tripling or quadrupling by the time you’re in your 80s (see adjacent chart).

Canada per capital health care costs by age

Source: CIHI. 2013 data.

You also have to live somewhere. The above statistics include the cost of physicians, drugs and hospital stays, but they don’t include the cost of care facilities. While these costs are difficult to generalize given that everyone has different lifestyle wants and health care needs, it should be noted that a Canadian long-term care facility providing 24-hour care (also known as a nursing home) can cost as much as $8,000/month (source: Fidelity). Even if you’re lucky enough to continue living in your own home when you’re older, you’ll eventually, in all likelihood, need a regular caregiver. They’re not cheap. A trained nurse, for example, can run 100 bucks an hour. Amazingly, only 25% of Canadian pre-retirees have planned for how they’ll pay for their long-term care (source: Vanguard). This is bad.

Finally, recognize that you may need help with your finances as you age. Only about half of recent Canadian retirees have planned for how they’ll manage their investments throughout retirement (source: Vanguard). People simply don’t want to deal with the fact that their cognitive ability will almost certainly deteriorate over time. Rather not think about it? Well think about the below research from Harvard professor David Laibson. Cognitively, we peak in our early to mid-50s. Naturally there are exceptions, but generally speaking, it’s all downhill from here. What’s particularly telling is how the elderly gradually lose their ability to effectively reason and negotiate for themselves as reflected in the higher interest rates they end up paying for loans and lines of credit. More than 30% of North Americans will experience dementia after age 85, with a much higher percentage experiencing other forms of cognitive impairment. Think you’ll be effectively trading your portfolio in your 80s? Probably not.

If the chance of getting a disease is 10%,
how many out of 1,000 will get it?"

Source: David Laibson, Harvard University, 2009
Home equity loan and LOC annual % rate  by borrower age

Many of you might be saying “I’m perfectly healthy and I’m sharp as a tack”. Good. But it won’t always be this way. Stop thinking you’re special.

You’ll decline. We all will. Prepare for it.

Doug Rowat,FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

154 comments ↓

#1 paulo on 03.11.17 at 2:36 pm

Umm Very interesting and as usual well thought out blog
funny how we forget to consider these issues,i find the comments related to cost of debt interesting . I think you make a good case for having all your proverbial “ducks” in line by the time one reaches 65-68 yrs of age. i guess my first thought is to the number of “bank of Moms” that are taking large advances against there property and retirement funds to assist the Kids in getting in at the top of a unsustainable real estate bubble, and i am thinking that when the correction comes to pass,the kids will be wiped out,and the bank of mom may also become collateral damage. in short 2 generations burned! What do you think on this issue?

#2 Alero01 on 03.11.17 at 2:37 pm

I’ve long started to suspect, and this blog post supports my suspicion, that I will have to expend considerable time over the next few decades on an investigation into self-induced euthanasia. I’m one of the many single adults who will not have family to rely on when I hit my senior years. At 44 years of age, I don’t have time to save and/or obtain guaranteed investment returns which will allow me to cover the cost of expensive nursing care, guard against inflation AND pay for the relentless rise in the cost of living. I say this as one of the “lucky” ones who has been saving for retirement since age 21, who is still promised a defined benefit pension, and who is currently debt-free but for a rental property. If I have little faith in my ability to live past the age of 82 while remaining financially comfortable, I shudder to think about the financial situations facing people who fit the societal norm of being in debt (consumer and/or mortgage), raising a family, and facing retirement without the benefit of a pension and/or a trustworthy source of investing advice.

#3 Penny Henny on 03.11.17 at 3:27 pm

Solution, think Logan’s Run

#4 Graphics Girl on 03.11.17 at 3:36 pm

Great dose of reality.

With the rising costs of health care, I expect the government will legalize assisted suicide.

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.17 at 3:39 pm

I’m not sure which is more depressing, todays article or the “frog strangling” rain we are currently experiencing in the Lower Mainland……..

#6 Millenial905er on 03.11.17 at 3:40 pm

Don’t worry, T2 will open the borders to wealthy Chinese. They’ll buy million dollar homes and claim 20k a year earnings. That will solve our geriatric time bomb.

#7 Vancouverite on 03.11.17 at 3:45 pm

“Many of you might be saying “I’m perfectly healthy and I’m sharp as a tack”. Good. But it won’t always be this way. Stop thinking you’re special.”

Very well said!!!

#8 Rob on 03.11.17 at 3:50 pm

“You’ll decline. We all will. Prepare for it.”

And so, with Murphy’s Law alive and well, the American voter went out and elected Donald J. Trump, the oldest elected president in US history. Are we all prepared, kids?

#9 @careeraftschool on 03.11.17 at 4:07 pm

Interesting article Doug! I think most Canadians who haven’t saved enough for retirement will end up moving to lower cost countries.

I had a friend that was shocked how cheap, clean and safe Chile and Argentina were when he visited recently. His best friend moved there 5 years ago. Set up a seniors care facility there. Nurses don’t charge $100 per hour and they practically give beer away.

#10 JSS on 03.11.17 at 4:12 pm

There are a growing number of 70+ year olds at my work. They’re virtually all old men in senior mgmt positions. Clogging the career paths for the rest. And then people wonder why their kids are living in their basements.

#11 Kilt on 03.11.17 at 4:19 pm

Can you really expend low returns from bonds over the next 10 to 20 years. Money is cheap now, but at some point investors are going to want a little more return for the risks they taking. The US is a prime example. Record debt levels and a booming economy, but they are not even talking about paying that debt down.
Kilt.

#12 Kilt on 03.11.17 at 4:19 pm

Expect not expend.

#13 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 03.11.17 at 4:23 pm

good words Doug

im hoping death is just another layer of skin i shed

time to move on
a good day to die

#14 joblo on 03.11.17 at 4:26 pm

“Amazingly, only 25% of Canadian pre-retirees have planned for how they’ll pay for their long-term care (source: Vanguard). This is bad.”

This article makes alot of sense in my long-term care plan.
Dribbling soup off my chin in a nursing home, no thanks.

Why I Hope to Die at 75

An argument that society and families—and you—will be better off if nature takes its course swiftly
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope…75/379329/

#15 Gasbag Boomer on 03.11.17 at 4:26 pm

Thanks Doug, a real beauty today!

#16 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 4:31 pm

That was depressing.

My retirement stratagy after years of watching my folks without dignity wither away into nothingness

The flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long.

#17 DON on 03.11.17 at 4:31 pm

#3 Penny Henny on 03.11.17 at 3:27 pm

Solution, think Logan’s Run
************

Sure…you first. Walk into the light. lol – good movie

#18 The Wet Coast on 03.11.17 at 4:38 pm

If at 80, I don’t do 1/2 of the stupid things I did when I was 20, I’ll be just fine.

#19 TLG on 03.11.17 at 4:38 pm

I think I’ll go drown the kittens now.

#20 dogman01 on 03.11.17 at 4:39 pm

When over 55 always get a Doctor whom is much younger than you, otherwise just when you need them most, they will retire.

Same with your finance guy. Their cognition will decline as they age and if they are really good…..might they not want to take it easy before the long dirtnap.

#21 Tony on 03.11.17 at 4:40 pm

I figure I’ll live to around 110 years old. My great-uncle is 104 and has never been to the doctor for anything other than a physical. Longevity has always been a long time for all my relatives. I was poisoned and nearly died at age 38 and a half but have mostly recovered. Got nothing from the lawsuit because I was Canadian instead of American.

#22 technical analysis? on 03.11.17 at 4:55 pm

move to southern europe, mexico, costa rica, etc etc. and live like a king.

#23 conan on 03.11.17 at 4:55 pm

About a decade ago insurance companies came out with their first versions of long term care insurance. Now insurance is a funny product, it is both crap and awesome, one has to know what is good and what is not. That is why people use brokers to help them through it.

Anyway, the first versions were badly priced. Those that bought early and bought the right product did very well for themselves. Now LTC insurance is twice the price it was. The actuaries messed up when the product first came out.

The main lesson is this, don’t plan on a retirement home. Instead, renovate your house to accommodate you. Only go to a special facility if your really broken. Nurses may cost whatever an hour, but you don’t need a nurse to help you with basic stuff.

Insurance companies also did something else wrong. Their old financial products with guarantees are killer good in this low rate environment. You can not buy them anymore obviously.

Beware of advisers who make blanket statements about what is good and not good when it comes to insurance products from the past. It is not the fees that matter, its the guarantees.

#24 Home is where the heart is on 03.11.17 at 4:58 pm

Expensive housing is the #1 killer on the quality of your life and your money.

The government, realtors, news media all say that foreign money eating up Canadian real estate is actually very minimal (only 5%).

So why are they ALL against a foreign buyer tax (FBT) if it will only affect a few buyers?

If what they say is true (~ only 5%) then a FBT should be introduced because it’s not going to hurt real estate!

The FBT needs to cover ALL Ontario otherwise the damage will spread. Foreign buying of local homes is no damn joke – it is hurting people who need to live somewhere very badly.

If foreign buyers love Canada so much why not become a Canadian citizen and buy all the real estate that your heart desires! Join our family and we will love you! But please don’t buy our essential shelters for speculative gains : (

This leads into the issue of Dual-Citizenship…..it is best avoided by any nation that want to be populated by a people that believe in it’s future and it’s destiny.

my humble opinions. i hope they become yours too

#25 neo on 03.11.17 at 5:00 pm

#8 Rob on 03.11.17 at 3:50 pm
“You’ll decline. We all will. Prepare for it.”

And so, with Murphy’s Law alive and well, the American voter went out and elected Donald J. Trump, the oldest elected president in US history. Are we all prepared, kids?

*******************************************

Everyone forgets how ill Reagan was during his second term. It was kept hidden from the public but his symtons really kicked in for his second term. Trump will be that age during his first term. Doesn’t bode well does it.

They have a minimum age of 40 for President. Why don’t they have a maximum age as well? I would rather someone 30 than 80 running the country.

#26 Martin on 03.11.17 at 5:01 pm

In 50 years I will have a robot nurse taking care of me all day

#27 Tony on 03.11.17 at 5:02 pm

Re: #1 paulo on 03.11.17 at 2:36 pm

When you play or participate in any ponzi you always have to get in at the very start because when the inevitable end comes 90 to 95 percent of the participants do not get paid. The Millennials in southern Ontario have copied what the Chinese do without knowing the end result ramifications. One has only to look at how the Chinese quote invest back home in China to see virtually everything they touch becomes a ponzi. In China it’s one ponzi after another, after another and the cycle keeps on repeating. The Millennials are going to learn a very expensive lesson.

#28 Getting tired on 03.11.17 at 5:11 pm

My Own advisor covered this as well

http://www.myownadvisor.ca/health-is-wealth-dont-forget-this-when-planning-for-retirement/

#29 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 5:18 pm

Canada no country for old Men with money.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/100515/what-does-it-cost-retire-belize.asp

#30 acdel on 03.11.17 at 5:29 pm

#9 @careeraftschool
——————————————-
Good realistic blog and many good comments.
————————————————————
I think that careeraftsschool hit the nail on the head!

#31 Doug Rowat on 03.11.17 at 5:30 pm

#2 Alero01 on 03.11.17 at 2:37 pm

At 44 years of age, I don’t have time to save and/or obtain guaranteed investment returns which will allow me to cover the cost of expensive nursing care, guard against inflation AND pay for the relentless rise in the cost of living.

I know my post was depressing, but it wasn’t THAT depressing. At 44 you have plenty of time to build a reasonable retirement nest egg. Are you planning to roll with Robin Leach?

–Doug

#32 Freedom First on 03.11.17 at 5:36 pm

#1 paulo

Relax. You will be fine. However the rest of your Post is bang on.

Also. The high suicide rate among people over 65, is, for some unknown reason, unreported.

I like the fact that a person can legally choose euthanasia in some parts of the world. And they will help people from other countries too.

We don’t let dogs suffer, why can’t a person choose the same for themselves.

I say this as a dog lover who lovingly took one dog to the vet who was suffering from cancer, and another who was suffering from the ravages of old age. I have raised and enjoyed dogs from puppydom to old age. I could not watch them suffer.

Dogs taught me more about life and increased the quality of my life more than I ever could have imagined.

Also, as JCM sang, “Life goes on long after the joy of living is gone”.

#33 Doug Rowat on 03.11.17 at 5:36 pm

#3 Penny Henny on 03.11.17 at 3:27 pm

Solution, think Logan’s Run

Now that takes me back. Farrah Fawcett in her prime.

–Doug

#34 Paul on 03.11.17 at 5:47 pm

4 Graphics Girl on 03.11.17 at 3:36 pm

Great dose of reality.

With the rising costs of health care, I expect the government will legalize assisted suicide.
———————————————————-
They are doing it now when the debt crunch hits T2 will be pushing folks off a bridge.

#35 Tony on 03.11.17 at 5:53 pm

Re: #24 Home is where the heart is on 03.11.17 at 4:58 pm

Markham isn’t representative of all of southern Ontario but my brother asked Stephen Tar when he as selling his house late last year what percentage are foreign buyers. Jack told him about 50 percent.

#36 Grey Dog on 03.11.17 at 5:54 pm

23 Conan,
I think Long Term Care Insurance is a bunch of bunk!
How do you know the company you bought it from will even be in business in X years?

I believe the same goes for those guys that sell annuities.

The only folks that may consider it is if there is Alzheimer’s in the family.

So far going back just two generations of grandparents that lived to early 90s…not a sign.

However, just in case, I said to hubby, single room, and when I don’t recognize you anymore, why waste the money on that…put me in camp with 4 per room.

Anyways, our GTA house will pay for a comfortable seniors compound when the time comes…
Ugh…what a topic for Saturday night.

Go Newfoundland for GOLD in tomorrow’s Brier!!!

Set your clocks forward Dogs…My Grey Dog has been up early this past week insisting on an early walk and feeding, her humans will adapt.

#37 Gulf Breeze on 03.11.17 at 5:59 pm

My husband died suddenly in his sleep a few years ago. He was 62 and physically very fit but had cardiovascular disease, probably congenital. My parents died a few years before him, in their early eighties.

I would pick the way my husband died any day over my parent’s decline into physical pain and dementia. My mother had dementia, but my father was the real problem because he still had his wits about him but his judgement was terrible, as Doug describes.

In his case it was a combination of being elderly and pain meds he took for extreme pain. It was a pure f’g nightmare trying to get him to spend ANY money on extra care for my mother. She needed round the clock care and or just monitoring. As a consequence, he fell one night, broke his hip, lay on the floor for hours, formed a blood clot that went to his heart the next day, and died. He died with 250,000. in the bank, or thereabouts.

I looked after my mother for a short while after he passed. She finally went into govt subsidized care when there was no other choice. It was bleak, depressing and something she would have hated has she been more aware. At that time, nearly all the cost was born by the government, based on her income. Her assets were left intact. Is this fair? Even though I benefited through inheriting money, I wonder.

What a useless exercise it is to live into extreme senility and beyond. It serves no purpose, is spiritually crippling for family and is profoundly expensive. In my mother’s case, to tax payers.

I am never, ever going to go through this, or anything even remotely like it. I am actually hoping I die of a massive stroke, like my husband. If not maybe I do a Virginia Woolf and go for the swim that requires no towel.

#38 Great Mystery on 03.11.17 at 6:06 pm

#13 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 03.11.17 at 4:23 pm

good words Doug

im hoping death is just another layer of skin i shed

time to move on
a good day to die

“A good day to die”

The wisdom of the native people, who still could think of the world, themselves in it the way how it really is.

Without the business of desperation to cling on to life at any cost, as if life itself was some kind of a right and not the greatest gift we got from the Great Mystery.

#39 technical analysis? on 03.11.17 at 6:24 pm

#29 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 5:18 pm
_________________________________________

no offense, but Belize is a dump. i spent 3 winters there. Oct-Mar. two friends were murdered. one was shot several times. police and politicians are corrupt. electricity goes out on a regular basis. can’t travel at night or you can get attacked. roads are a mess… and medical treatment? better off in Cuba. no thanks. nice to visit. but to retire there. no way.

#40 Great Mystery on 03.11.17 at 6:28 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/earth-is-heaven-james-lovell-lunar-astronaut-2017-3

“…people often say, ‘I hope to go to heaven when I die,'” he said. “In reality, if you think about it, you go to heaven when you’re born.”

“You arrive on a planet that has the proper mass, has the gravity to contain water and an atmosphere, which are the very essentials for life,” he said. “And you arrive on this planet that’s orbiting a star just at the right distance — not too far to be too cold, or too close to be too hot — and just at the right distance to absorb that star’s energy and then, with that energy, cause life to evolve here in the first place.”

“In reality, you know, God has really given us a stage, just looking at where we were around the moon, a stage on which we perform.

#41 Linda on 03.11.17 at 6:28 pm

Holy Hannah, what a depressing post. Anything you’d like to share there, Ryan? That having been said, it is a reality that we all will die one day. Health is wealth; if you want to enjoy life for as long as possible (& avoid dementia by medication) then make sure you take the time to maintain your health. That means getting off your duff & doing the hard work to stay mobile; taking the time to prepare & eat healthy foods & if you know your family has a tendency towards disease ‘X’ doing whatever you can to ensure your chances of contracting it are as low as possible. Death is inevitable but quality of life is largely up to you.

#42 acdel on 03.11.17 at 6:29 pm

#37 Gulf Breeze

I have empathy for what you have gone through and I am sure that many of us that regularly read Garth’s Blog have stories on their own that are just not right; BUT????

This country is blessed with what the world needs; there should be no hardship, we should be the leader of the world but unfortunately we allow a few thousand politician’s federal/provincial/municipal to dictate to us on how to live our lives.

Sure, there are rules to follow, but the reality the so called leaders take more then they contribute. How many stay in a one star motel, order breakfast under fifteen bucks, use Skype instead of spending hundreds of thousands, foolishly give away money to so called charities that end up in corrupt officials bank accounts or worse dictators that use it to kill thousands or shop in the most poch places on our money?

I know it is the system we have, isn’t it about time it changes, with all the bright individuals out there must be or we must make them accountable for their poch livestyles and especially their pensions that we pay for? This is absolutely absurd in today’s times that any of us should have to go through this..

#43 conan on 03.11.17 at 6:35 pm

#36 Grey Dog on 03.11.17 at 5:54 pm

They have billions of dollars in assets that’s real money. It is not part of any type of fractional banking. Also, this industry is heavily regulated by government.

The old LTC products had return of premium guarantees and they were written in a way to guaranteed a payout.

Think a 4 thousand dollar a year premium that is almost 100 percent likely to turn into a 4 thousand dollar a month benefit for life.

I was not really talking annuities, but I don’t think anyone who bought one when rates were 8 percent or more is anyway troubled about buying what they did.

Yeah, I sell insurance products, and when I run into people like you, I just move on. You can stew in your little world.

#44 OMERS on 03.11.17 at 6:36 pm

I have another 30 years till I’m 65, do I hit the ETF’S hard in my TFSA and have a 6 to 7% return or do I contribute more into my AVC account through OMERS which had a net return of 10.3% last year!
Trying to prepare for retirement….

#45 Ontario's Left Coast on 03.11.17 at 6:39 pm

Worst. Post. Ever. Thanks for the weekend pick-me-up, Doug. You’re a real barrel of monkeys.

#46 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 7:02 pm

#39 technical analysis? on 03.11.17 at 6:24 pm
#29 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 5:18 pm
_________________________________________

no offense, but Belize is a dump. i spent 3 winters there. Oct-Mar. two friends were murdered. one was shot several times. police and politicians are corrupt. electricity goes out on a regular basis. can’t travel at night or you can get attacked. roads are a mess… and medical treatment? better off in Cuba. no thanks. nice to visit. but to retire there. no way.
…..

Shit . I need to find a place in the same time zone that I can Walts into and pay no tax. Let my algo driven fx machine run while I play on the beach.

Internet in cuba too sloooow.

Any suggestions

#47 Randy on 03.11.17 at 7:05 pm

Hockey Star Derek Sanderson had the best line after blowing a Multi- Million fortune after signing a huge contract in the early 1970`s..`How did I know I was gonna live this long`

#48 Em on 03.11.17 at 7:06 pm

As Axl Rose once eloquently said, “You ain’t special, so who ya foolin’?”

#49 bigtowne on 03.11.17 at 7:17 pm

The latest studies to bolster your immune system and lower the inflammation in aging folks is a beautiful combo of rich dark chocolate (above 70%) and a nice glass of red wine (6 to 8 oz.) per day and two to three cups of coffee per day….

If the young are so dang smart why are they paying more than a million to buy a “tar paper shack” on a busy street in downtown Toronto with crack dealers and pawn shops next door? Yes my dear getting old is not for “NINNIES or SISSIES”. It’s ok that Garth takes Saturday off but pretending being old is a recipe for the glue factory is so unacceptable and not true and casebook “ageism”.

In my financial career I have made many many expensive errors but I can ride my bike now. The biggest hit to old age is “CREDIT CARD DEBT”. God is my co-pilot and I have 24/7 help. The good book is free and you can google help for free.

Garth is not a spring chicken and he is my example that being old is good and you can still run “MONEY” …what about “BOONE PICKENS” ever hear about Carl Ichan or this will send up my white flag: President of the Good Old U.S. of A Donald Trump.

#50 not 1st on 03.11.17 at 7:19 pm

Guess Doug is no scientist.

There are 7 conditions we are all likely to get in our older years;

1. High Blood pressure
2. High cholesterol (atherosclerosis)
3. Diabetes
4. Cancer
5. Dementia
6. Sarcopenia
7. Stroke or Heart failure

Blood pressure can be regulated with drugs indefinitely, so can cholesterol with statins. Stents and other interventions have become widespread.

Likely to be cures for cancer, dementia and diabetes in the next 20 yrs. Drugs in the works for sarcopenia. Stem cell patches for failing hearts are being worked on and so is an outright new artificial heart design.

Life expectancy is going to take a huge leap. 82 will be nothing in the future. Kids born after 2010 can expect to see 100 without much problem.

Which reinforces his point even more. But rather than counting on money to last, you need to have permanent income.

#51 Barb on 03.11.17 at 7:20 pm

“Finally, recognize that you may need help with your finances as you age.”

—————-

Gawd forbid the kids will be making those decisions. Some will wish they had raised the kids with a tad more effort.

#52 not 1st on 03.11.17 at 7:35 pm

Instead of obsessing over toronto RE, maybe Garth et al can explain how a younger person even puts a dollar away for retirement when this is coming down the line;

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02/07/automation-dominic-barton_n_14634612.html

#53 Gulf breeze on 03.11.17 at 7:49 pm

Acdel,

Thanks for your kind words. I don’t think, though, that we are a particularly rich country. Nor do I think corrupt politicians cause dementia, nor can they cure it yet. But great inroads are being made in research and UBC is in the foreground there.

Doug is doing us a great service in prodding us to think and plan for the almost inevitable disaster of old age. Governments can’t be solely responsible for this with the demographic bulge approaching doddering wtf-ville age.

#54 Debtslavecreator on 03.11.17 at 7:51 pm

Health care and underfunded pensions along with massive and growing debts/deficits from decades of out of control spending that benefited mainly politicians, public union workers, and other elites
These boomers are bankrupting the system and the corrupt politicians will continue to borrow and increase taxes until the upcoming sovereign debt crisis finally wiped them out
We have a serious intergenerational inequality issue
It will destroy the fabric of Canada and the rest of these corrupt western socialist countries
Boomers will keep fighting to steal everything they can as they feel they were promised this but of course it was a corrupt bought and paid for politician that made the promise
The old want “free” health care ? Ok pass a 10% wealth tax on all deceased assets including joint assets and life ins proceeds
All ages -and all that money goes to Health care only
Then reduce income tax on the first 20-30k of income for all Canadians
The system is already in the early stages of collapse
It is simple exponential math

#55 acdel on 03.11.17 at 8:02 pm

#49 bigtowne

I am no youngster myself but get over yourself; only the naive young are buying into this frenzy, there are many out there that are not. You were young once, enjoy your wine, chocolate and coffee you old grump! Now, get off my lawn. :)

#56 Porsche on 03.11.17 at 8:08 pm

#39 technical analysis? on 03.11.17 at 6:24 pm
#29 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 5:18 pm
_________________________________________

no offense, but Belize is a dump. i spent 3 winters there. Oct-Mar. two friends were murdered. one was shot several times. police and politicians are corrupt. electricity goes out on a regular basis. can’t travel at night or you can get attacked. roads are a mess… and medical treatment? better off in Cuba. no thanks. nice to visit. but to retire there. no way.

When working for Nortel I was mugged across the street from my (nice) hotel in Belize. My manager freaked… I found out later that I was replacing a guy who was mugged.

#57 MouldyinYVR on 03.11.17 at 8:23 pm

No truer words spoken.
Doug, thanks for this.
Over 65? – Do yourself and your family a big favor.
Update your will, arrange power of attorney, inform your nearest and dearest of your financial situation etc. and try to simplify your financial life if possible. If not, then at least be sure you share relevant information with those you trust. No one appreciates a massive guessing game regarding your finances when you are gone.
Also think about a health directive.
No point being in denial about the realities of life and death and what comes in between!

#58 Tremblant110 on 03.11.17 at 8:24 pm

Couple of thoughts

1. You want to die broke so need some planning as to the day you and your spouse’s death and being broke will intersect.
2.Cognitive skills are good if you work your brain
3. The biggest concern /risk is dementia and hopefully assisted death rules will be fixed to account for this
4.When your sick think where you live. Some provinces cover more cancer treatment drugs then others.
5. Think of your genes. Depending how you picked your parents will directly affect your longevity.
6.My kids have a children’s playhouse in their backyard and we are looking to add a bedroom for the grandparents

#59 Piet on 03.11.17 at 8:26 pm

“Prepare for it.”

We prepared for it by investing in our offspring. The RESP was an excellent investment, generating a good rate of return. The adult children are highly paid professionals now who have told us not to ever worry about money, so we don’t care about those extra expenses that are likely to occur as we approach the terminal phase. We are going to blow the savings while we can still enjoy doing so.

#60 Doug Rowat on 03.11.17 at 8:27 pm

#47 Randy on 03.11.17 at 7:05 pm

Hockey Star Derek Sanderson had the best line after blowing a Multi- Million fortune after signing a huge contract in the early 1970`s..`How did I know I was gonna live this long`

Sanderson lived the life. Reminds me of the Errol Flynn quote, something like “my biggest problem is reconciling my gross lifestyle with my net income.”

–Doug

#61 earlybird on 03.11.17 at 8:33 pm

Quality of life over longevity any day….My best investment to date is a great quality elliptical…keeps the energy going, and the stress away!

#62 conan on 03.11.17 at 8:39 pm

#46 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 7:02 pm

I can’t remember the name of the book, or the author, but they research countries around the World where you can retire for very little money. They used to update it yearly.

Now health care is a problem, but there are benefits:

You will be treated like a mayor. Your knowledge of all things Western will be respected highly.

You will be able to live in a nice place and have servants. Now before everyone freaks about the servant thing, its a cultural dynamic. Locals will expect that you hire people. To not do so is considered an insult to them.

Now ISIS has screwed with the safety of many places, but they still exist. As long as the Canadian government will mail you your CPP check you are golden.

Forget about staying in the same time zone.

#63 Grey Dog on 03.11.17 at 8:41 pm

Conan
In Toronto and GTA there is a group called CCAC , community Care A?C? When one becomes ill, the government rushes in with occupational therapists, personal support workers, nurses, etc, my Dad’s health recently was diagnosed palliative, I was stunned at the whole team lined up to assist us with his end of life care. In this region there is really no need for Long Term Care Insurance.

Meanwhile, an X neighbour who left the amenities of Toronto and the GTA, to build his dream home two hours east of Toronto has recently had a stroke, absolutely NO support in that part of the country, and his rehabilitation is really in question as there is no support structure in that community…

I’m stunned at the number of retired people racing for the exits of the GTA and complaining of the lack of health professionals in the one horse towns they retired to.

#64 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 8:42 pm

Based on what’s going on I Rotterdam and all the online chater I think the machine will so hit the internet kill switch soon.

Stay safe dogs.

#65 acdel on 03.11.17 at 9:10 pm

This guy might be on to something.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/158211182101/could-cognitive-scientists-eliminate-isis

Good-night all!

#66 conan on 03.11.17 at 9:44 pm

LTC insurance provides a cash payment to help with bills such as renovation costs, health aide wages, and nursing homes . It has nothing to do with medical care already provided by government.

It might be the only insurance product where women pay a higher premium then men.

I raised this subject originally because this is a bigger problem then even expert actuaries realized when they first designed the product. The insurance industry does not pay these guys big money just so they can go “oops” and have to double premiums going forward.

#67 Andrew Woburn on 03.11.17 at 9:51 pm

I am over 70 and I agree with what Doug says. I am recovering from a serious illness and I know how it impaired my thinking even though I couldn’t recognize that at the time.

When I was younger I would have found this column depressing but now I just see it as common sense. You were born to die just like every plant, animal and human that ever existed and once you wrap your head around that, it is quite liberating. I spent my younger years acting as though I were immortal and everything I did mattered forever. It didn’t. Now I just enjoy the ride.

One thing I can add to Doug’s advice is to be careful about where you retire. When you are still under 65 you will probably ignore the reality of aging. Having watched my parents decline, I didn’t. One of the many reasons we chose our location in Nanaimo was to get easy access to health care and to public transit. I didn’t expect to get sick, who does, but my wife only had to drive ten minutes to visit me in hospital and same for my many followup treatments. I shared a room with a guy from Qualicum whose 85 year old wife had to drive 45 minutes each way to visit him and sometimes wound up sleeping in a hospital chair because she didn’t want to drive home in the winter dark with under par eyesight. If you retire to some romantic hideaway in the boonies, you could find yourself hammered by motel bills if your partner suffers an extended stay in a city hospital and what happens when neither of you can drive any more.

I agree with those who predict the growth of assisted suicide. The Boomer wave is dealing with the reality of their parents’ dementia and decline and they aren’t going to like it or tolerate it for themselves. One visit to my mother’s long term care facility did it for me and it was one of the good ones.

#68 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 9:58 pm

Slightly looped. Doug I think you like me that way.

You will never share a bay street after hours story. I got to do all the dirty work.

Why, I’m free, unemployed now that my pic at the general store went viral. Hell I’m meeting everyone week before may 24 week end at the general store.

Bosses found out who the smoking man is. Thanks to the pic at the general store. It gave me freedom as a writer trapped in a bear trap. Love garth for it. He has good intentions

Fk em. Never liked the pathetic suck ups at the tax farm anyway. Me with no boss to suck up to.

Look out hemmingway and hunter s. You are my true compition.

I’m free. Be it poor now. But damn it feels so good to say what ever drunken thought comes to mind without the worry of get dragged in front of your peers so some dick head can get an organic thill saying your fired.

And I havent even started yet with what I really want to write about.

DM, you perfect sleaze bag. you let a former class mate and buddy get bitch slapped and tosed aside by a freek of human cause you drank the poisin cool aid.

You have one more week to find me something or I’m selling Shlong Branch.

And devoting my time into telling the world what a piece of shit you are.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.

#69 Will Erdogan open the door on 03.11.17 at 10:08 pm

#64 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 8:42 pm

Based on what’s going on I Rotterdam and all the online chater I think the machine will so hit the internet kill switch soon.

Stay safe dogs.

That comes when Erdogan opens the door for the 3 million refugees stationed in Turkey to seek better life in Europe – unless his demands are met and Europe won’t let Turks move freely within Europe.

Can happen very soon, and it will be the kill switch of globalism as ideology.

The Dutch government just blocked Turks coming from Germany joining the demonstrations in Rotterdam and Dutch authorities have arrested Turkey’s family minister and are deporting her to#Germany according to RTL.

#70 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.11.17 at 10:30 pm

#26 Martin on 03.11.17 at 5:01 pm
In 50 years I will have a robot nurse taking care of me all day
=================================
In 50 years I will get me a robot wife!

#71 WUL on 03.11.17 at 10:47 pm

Speaking of Derek Sanderson. I was going to comment on wills, estates and end of life stuff but this is a better and true story.

Derek is said to have been the first hockey player to have worn white skates. Google it. Not even close. In 1963 as a 7 year old, I lost one of my skates. Yes, one. In my game the next night, I had to wear my sister’s figure skates. White. Toe picks impaired my ability to dangle. So, an asterisk beside his name in hockey lore.

He did have a fling with Cher. I have not. Yet.

#72 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 10:59 pm

https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=Sos8Om1zEgs

#73 Gulf Breeze on 03.11.17 at 11:02 pm

Andrew Woburn,

A thousand thank you’s and high praise for the excellent advice!

Something that I would add after watching my parent’s end of life is to put a LOT of thought into giving up your home to move into a condo.

A three bedroom home with a basement suite is a fantastic arrangement for those who want to provide room and board in exchange for some help.

Elderly people in two bedroom condos can’t do this.

As much as it’s a pain maintaining a house, particularly if you are a woman, moving into a condo can be even more problematic.

I learned so much from watching my parents too. I lie in bed at night going through all kinds of contingency plans. It’s an obsession. I hope I haven’t become sick in the head over it! LOL.

#74 Doug Rowat on 03.11.17 at 11:03 pm

#67 Andrew Woburn on 03.11.17 at 9:51 pm

I am over 70 and I agree with what Doug says. I am recovering from a serious illness and I know how it impaired my thinking even though I couldn’t recognize that at the time.

When I was younger I would have found this column depressing but now I just see it as common sense.

My exact intent.

–Doug

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.11.17 at 11:05 pm

Doug,
You seemed like a nice man, trying to help people prepare for a nice comfortable retirement.
But no you just turned into another soulless piece of shit financial adviser, scaring old people.
First of all, most people don’t live to 95.
And most seniors that I know cope very well with what they’ve got.
Stick with helping the 1% ers get richer, asshole.

#76 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 11:05 pm

My world right now.

https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=g-vzxxAMOGc

#77 yorkville renter on 03.11.17 at 11:07 pm

most.
depressing.
blog.
ever.

#78 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.11.17 at 11:16 pm

#33 Doug Rowat on 03.11.17 at 5:36 pm
#3 Penny Henny on 03.11.17 at 3:27 pm

Solution, think Logan’s Run

Now that takes me back. Farrah Fawcett in her prime.
–Doug
————–
What?

#79 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 11:22 pm

https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=xL-W0bHwdn8

#80 boonerator on 03.11.17 at 11:44 pm

#67 Andrew Woburn on 03.11.17 at 9:51 pm and Doug are spot on. It comes to us all and not at our bidding.

I’m 70 this year, 3d time at the cancer rodeo. 2 small ones in 2017, so the long term prognosis is not a long one.

So, I have to think about my survivor’s financial needs.
Mutuals cost more in MER than the balanced portfolio but she does not have to worry about rebalancing.
When the time comes, our (full) TFSA’s will go into one fund that pays her around 6.5%. It will cover the rent and other stuff too and she will have one less thing to worry about.

#81 WUL on 03.11.17 at 11:57 pm

Andrew Woburn and Gulf Breeze:

Noted and thanks.

#82 DepressedAsHell on 03.11.17 at 11:57 pm

Dear Lord, the most depressing post I’ve read here ever! Haven’t had a drink in 3 weeks, but just poured a large rum and coke with mostly rum.

On a happier note (or at least less depressing), just thought I would point out that the $8000 quote for nursing care sounds like cream of the crop accomodations, and that it is possible in Ontario to get decent quality nursing care for 1/4 of that cost per month. I know this, as my 86-year old mother lives in a nursing home in a smallish Northern city in Ontario, and I am quite pleased with her care there. So is she. There are 3 choices of rooms, with the prices around 1800 for basic, 2200 for semi, and 2600 for private (give or take a 100 or so bucks each, I forget exactly). My mother has the semi and it is pretty decent. She has a private room, but shares a bathroom. Regardless which room style you choose, the actual care is the same for everyone. She is actually reasonably happy there, considering she knows this is the last place she will ever live. If she is not happy it is not from lack of care but more from the fact that she is 87 and cannot live alone anymore. They treat her really well there. She has regular physio (government paid for), decent regular meals, lots of organized activities and outings, every time she falls or something changes, they call me. I am actually quite impressed so far. So for those freaking out thinking they will need 8K a month for a nursing home, no you won’t. I mean great if you can afford it, maybe you’ll get a better decorated room and a more extensive menu, but not sure you’ll get better care or $6000 per month improved lifestyle.

#83 NoName on 03.12.17 at 12:02 am

Good night

https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=7a9N_bUAZa0

#84 DepressedAsHell on 03.12.17 at 12:06 am

Oh and another thing I thought I’d mention is that mom is considered disabled with the CRA (not hard to do this if you are old), and thus claims her entire nursing home accommodations as a medical expense (as a disabled person you can choose between the disability tax credit or claiming nursing home expenses as a medical expense, and for a full year of nursing home accomodations this works out to be more tax efficient).

#85 Winterpeg on 03.12.17 at 12:16 am

Thank you Doug for this much needed frank discussion. I work in Health care and am caring for my aging mother. I see aging and changes in health status in people every day. My mother, thankfully, can afford to live in a somewhat expensive assisted living place for now. If she requires more care there are a few even more expensive options in Manitoba, or she will go into a government funded nursing home. She will likely pay the highest rate as it is based on her income. It is more affordable ultimately than private for now, but families such as mine will have to do their research as to which ones are the “nicest” of a generally depressing, existence of being “warehoused” till the end of life.
Medically assisted dying in Canada is now legal, it is being done and I and many of my colleagues are in favour of it. However, the new legislation has been criticized by some as being too limiting. For example, at present, your health care directive cannot express the wish for doctor assisted dying if you write this wish years in advance, anticipating that you will be incapacitated by dementia. I believe it can only be negotiated if death is fairly imminent and you have to be competent to make that decision.
Note that palliative care is differentiated from doctor assisted dying. Doctor assisted dying is is what we think of as euthanasia. In the legislation there are very specific guidelines for it. Palliative care is “comfort care” which means a patient is kept as comfortable as possible to alleviate suffering, but it does not actively terminate life.
There will be a cultural shift in the attitude towards end of life care. Hopefully it is not driven solely by economics. It will be driven by the wish of many to have self determination in their lives.
It has been said that this is the last big issue the Boomers will influence.
Look into the website “Dying with Dignity” which provides information which will become ever more important to each and every one of us and our families. Palliative care websites also provide end of life information.
On a lighter note:
Spend less time on crusty blogs,
Get outside and walk your dog(s).

#86 Suicidal on 03.12.17 at 12:16 am

Oh jesus, by the time I am 86, the ratio of old geezers to nursing home spaces will be much higher than it is now. And I won’t have 8K a month to pay for private accomodations. My future is bleak. I’ll think back to how good mom had it in comparison. And she used to say I had it better as a kid than she did. I guess what comes around goes around. I need another rum and coke.

#87 lol on 03.12.17 at 12:22 am

‘Finally, recognize that you may need help with your finances as you age. ‘

this was left till the end……..:)

#88 joe socks on 03.12.17 at 12:33 am

i’m thinking of going mawer balanced from here on in and forgetting about it.
I’m on the hunt for an etf version.. any help would be appreciated.
too many choices..

#89 Ronaldo on 03.12.17 at 12:59 am

That was depressing. I think I’ll take an extra couple sleeping pills.

#90 Ronaldo on 03.12.17 at 1:14 am

#10 JSS on 03.11.17 at 4:12 pm

”There are a growing number of 70+ year olds at my work. They’re virtually all old men in senior mgmt positions. Clogging the career paths for the rest. And then people wonder why their kids are living in their basements.”
———————————————————

That’s even more depressing.

#91 NOTHING SURPRISES on 03.12.17 at 1:35 am

Most men will develop prostate problems in their life.

Most will die from another cause before the prostate turns to cancer.

Just another fact of life.

Happy week-end (No pun intended)

#92 LP on 03.12.17 at 4:55 am

#63 Grey Dog on 03.11.17 at 8:41 pm

I’ve got to tell you that 100 KM west of Toronto CCAC is alive and very much in evidence when “that” time comes. So what the problem east of Toronto is I can’t imagine.

#93 Well Doug...there is a solution on 03.12.17 at 5:09 am

Good post and having researched those statistics for myself a long time ago, upon retirement I chose to move to a Top 5 WHO ranked country in the World (an EU country in my case) that has National Healthcare.

Canada’s ranking is #30 and the USA is #37.

Pharma is cheaper here (drugs & prescription cost, for many common sense items you do not need a prescription vs. Canada where you do for everything it seems).

Last year I was in a high speed highway car accident – fractured my spine. Within 30 minutes of arriving in Emergency I was CAT scanned, X-Ray’d, blood withdrawn in the ambulance ride and examined physically upon arrival. Within the hour I was talking to an Orthopedic surgeon and in a bed. Later in the day all blood work was done and told what I had to do to heal in the next 60 days. And this in a part of the country that is supposedly not as good as the rest of the country.

The WHO rankings are well deserved when I compare Emergency services for my parents, deceased, when in AB and BC.

No need to live in fear, just relocate to a top WHO ranked country with National Healthcare when you get older.

#94 jane24 on 03.12.17 at 6:29 am

I do know that you can retire to the South of Italy for 1000 euros a month as I know people who are currently doing it. Cheap but wonderful food and wine. Cheap rent or home purchase costs, cheap property tax but expensive home heating if you go for gas. Go for solar as there are EU grants to set you up. Family come over to visit as who doesn’t like Italy. Why freeze in expensive snow.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.17 at 6:32 am

@#78 Ponzi
Farrah Fawcett had a small role in the movie “Logans Run’. A few minutes. Probably one of her first (worst)acting gigs.
Personally I thought she was much more attractive in later years.

But if were talking post apocalyptic movies with retirement “solutions”

Nothing like the Fromage’ Award winning
“Soylent Green” and Charleston Heston’s classic line “Soylent Green are people!”

Sliding into a medicated twilight with enough money is better than the alternative which involves option A …Walmart greeter or Option B… sitting on cold sidewalks outside liquorstores with empty Tim’s cups whilst juggling balls with arthritic wrists…..not a pretty sight.
Take another green pill and relax….it’ll be over soon enough.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.17 at 6:42 am

@#75 P.P.
“But no you just turned into another soulless piece of shit financial adviser, scaring old people.
First of all, most people don’t live to 95.
And most seniors that I know cope very well with what they’ve got.”
********************************************

Now now. Dont be mean and nasty.
“Dont shoot the messenger” and all that.
He’s merely pointing out the truth.
Most people dont prepare financially for retirement. True
Most people will live til they’re in their 80’s. True
Most elderly people lose cognitive ability. True
Most younger relatives sit like ghouls waiting for the inheiritance. True.
Most hospice care facilities are hideously expensive. True
Everyone should prepare for it. True
His advice is free and you can take it or leave it. True

As for “souless piece of shit” please see “Realtor” in the Websters Dictionary for a more eloquent definition.

#97 busman7 on 03.12.17 at 7:40 am

I am with the get out of dodge crowd, when I retired to Central America I brought my 90 yr old mother along, the intelligent doctor here immediately cut the 13 prescription drugs her Canadian Big Pharma pill-pushing quactor had her on down to just three, he also put her on a diet that controlled her blood sugar level so daily insulin injections were no longer needed, something the $4,000+ a month Canadian nursing home with a dietician on staff was incapable of doing. A trained nurse cost $200 per month rather than $100 per hr. 24/7 home care provided by caring people totaled $600 per month compared to $4,000 + month for the unionized staff in Canuckistan, a sad situation that one needs not tolerate!

#98 att on 03.12.17 at 8:24 am

Great article as always Doug.. but the 2nd last graph looks amateurish and purposely misleading. At least state the sample size and make the y axis less weird.

#99 DoomandGloomer on 03.12.17 at 9:11 am

#61 Earlybird

“My best investment to date is a great quality elliptical…keeps the energy going, and the stress away!”
——————————————————————–

You could have invested the money you blew on that contraption in some financial assets, and received the same health benefits for free by walking or running outside. Soon that elliptical will break down and collect dust while it doubles as a clothes rack.

“Stuff” is not an investment. It depreciates and doesn’t pay dividends.

#100 Grey Dog on 03.12.17 at 9:18 am

Doug,
Hubby and I had a meeting with our full service Financial Advisor recently…our Wills were 10 years old, so time for an update, however, it is the financial guy that went through it (Will) and is having a local lawyer draw it up, per Financial Advisor’s advice Is that normal?

#101 davikk on 03.12.17 at 9:37 am

ALERT! Canada Real Estate and Banks at HIGH RISK for COLLAPSE!

http://investmentwatchblog.com/alert-canada-real-estate-and-banks-at-high-risk-for-collapse/

#102 For Smoking man on 03.12.17 at 9:44 am

This is for you

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peYrSP8cke8

#103 Healthy Lifestyle on 03.12.17 at 9:52 am

“When I was sixteen, I had just two things on my mind ― girls and cars. I wasn’t very good with girls. So I thought about cars. I thought about girls, too, but I had more luck with cars.

“Let’s say that when I turned sixteen, a genie had appeared to me. And that genie said, ‘Warren, I’m going to give you the car of your choice. It’ll be here tomorrow morning with a big bow tied on it. Brand-new. And it’s all yours.’

“Having heard all the genie stories, I would say, ‘What’s the catch?’ And the genie would answer, ‘There’s only one catch. This is the last car you’re ever going to get in your life. So it’s got to last a lifetime.’

“If that had happened, I would have picked out that car. But, can you imagine, knowing it had to last a lifetime, what I would do with it?

“I would read the manual about five times. I would always keep it garaged. If there was the least little dent or scratch, I’d have it fixed right away because I wouldn’t want it rusting. I would baby that car, because it would have to last a lifetime.

“That’s exactly the position you are in concerning your mind and body. You only get one mind and one body. And it’s got to last a lifetime. Now, it’s very easy to let them ride for many years. But if you don’t take care of that mind and that body, they’ll be a wreck forty years later, just like the car would be.

“It’s what you do right now, today, that determines how your mind and body will operate ten, twenty, and thirty years from now.”

― Warren Buffett

Mayo Clinic tips to diet and exercise:

http://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/fitness/in-depth/exercise/art-20045506?pg=1

#104 Wrk.dover on 03.12.17 at 10:01 am

My 94 yr old mother has all her marbles and lives in a private assisted care well west of GTA. Just like a cruise ship where you bring your own furniture. Only complaint, no spicey food.$3000/month.

Bridge players keep dying off though.

#105 Spectacle on 03.12.17 at 10:16 am

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz
…..don’t be mean and nasty. As for “souless piece of shit” please see “Realtor” in the Websters Dictionary for a more eloquent definition.

****** Funny…*******
Life is like an Elevator, where we don’t always get to choose the Floor we’re going to. Sometimes it’s empty, sometimes it’s Crowded and they also had the Discount-Sauerkraut -Sausage -Meatloaf on sale in the cafeteria today!

In that case it’s always better to take the stairs, better for your health too.

Dougs post today reminds me of a dark corner of my past, when I was in the major medical claims industry. I could write pages on the stories I witnessed: but it’s more important to understand the lessons, than the stories. Thanks Doug & Garth for bringing life to those essential dark corners for us.

#106 MF on 03.12.17 at 10:32 am

#49 bigtowne on 03.11.17 at 7:17 pm

Because:

-When rent eats up your whole pay cheque you are simply spinning your wheels
-Tired of having to move when some A-hole landlord increases your rent/rental stock is lacking in quality
-We have family and lives here in the GTA
-In our debt based fake monetary system, being prudent and saving/investing does not pay
-Housing has gone crazy in the last 8 years and anyone who bought is miles ahead. Nobody cares about paying off these mortgages

MF

#107 Smoking Man on 03.12.17 at 10:33 am

Canada former minister of defence. On Nictonites.

https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=SVKuiuxQ6FQ

#108 Doug Rowat on 03.12.17 at 10:45 am

#98 att on 03.12.17 at 8:24 am

Great article as always Doug.. but the 2nd last graph looks amateurish and purposely misleading. At least state the sample size and make the y axis less weird.

Yeah, Harvard University. Such amateurs.

–Doug

#109 MF on 03.12.17 at 10:46 am

#97 busman7 on 03.12.17 at 7:40 am
#94 jane24 on 03.12.17 at 6:29 am

Easy to do only after you have amassed enough money to be able to retire in central America or Italy. Thanks Canada.

#93 Well Doug…there is a solution on 03.12.17 at 5:09 am

The EU is on the verge of being bankrupt and broke but a lot of people will continue to gain if this lie that the EU is prosperous continues. Sorry, but I no longer just blindly believe any statistics from these types of organizations.

#10 JSS on 03.11.17 at 4:12 pm

Same here. They are also the ones with all the benefits and stability. Most of us younger folks are on contract. But why aren’t we loyal?? It’s kind of hard to foster loyalty when everyone feels expendable.

MF

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.12.17 at 10:46 am

Once you have advanced Alzheimer’s, it does not matter if you live in a 1k a month care home or in a 10k one.
In either one they will keep you drugged for the rest of your days on earth.
As for visits, as you won’t recognize your relatives anyway, no need for them to show up anymore.
Just counting the days to cash in the inheritance cheque.
Now, this is depressive.
True story, not a useless statistic.

#111 Randy on 03.12.17 at 10:47 am

Having a Huge Mortgage and being Deep in Debt will take years off your life and ruin your health

#112 Mr Happy on 03.12.17 at 10:49 am

#51 Barb on 03.11.17 at 7:20 pm
“Finally, recognize that you may need help with your finances as you age.”
—————-
Gawd forbid the kids will be making those decisions. Some will wish they had raised the kids with a tad more effort.
*******************************************

My Mama raised me with patience, a firm hand and with unending love. (I admit it, I cry when I hear “Simple Man” by Lynyrd Skynyrd). Everything my Mama invested in me is being returned to her 100 fold. We grew up poor but she worked endless hours to pay for my education. She wants for nothing and I will pay all the bills and give her anything she desires, for as long as she lives.

#113 MF on 03.12.17 at 11:03 am

#69 Will Erdogan open the door on 03.11.17 at 10:08 pm

100% support the Dutch on this (and almost everything).

They have a history of standing up for their beliefs.

MF

#114 NoName on 03.12.17 at 11:19 am

funy thing how republicans alrady are gong ho to screw very same people that put them in power, buy trying to push legislation taht alows: “Employers could impose hefty penalties on employees who decline to participate in genetic testing as part of workplace wellness programs if a bill approved by a U.S. House committee this week becomes law.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/03/11/employees-who-decline-genetic-testing-could-face-penalities-under-proposed-bill/?utm_term=.9d3439f60649

#115 grimmest of the reapers on 03.12.17 at 11:22 am

#9 @careeraftschool on 03.11.17 at 4:07 pm

Interesting article Doug! I think most Canadians who haven’t saved enough for retirement will end up moving to lower cost countries.

I had a friend that was shocked how cheap, clean and safe Chile and Argentina were when he visited recently. ”

Don’t forget the Philippines or Thailand either……costs are way cheaper, and alot more fun to die there than in a Canadian nursing home!

#116 NoName on 03.12.17 at 11:24 am

Can sleap depravation cure depression, of course it can that is why “frequent flyer” is popular now days… why have you depressed when we can make you crazy…

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/10/opinion/sunday/can-sleep-deprivation-cure-depression.html

#117 NoName on 03.12.17 at 11:26 am

why we Kanadians are diferent and so much better than Amerikans

OTTAWA—Liberal backbenchers have defied Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, voting in favour of a bill that would bar health and life insurance companies from forcing clients to disclose the results of genetic testing.

Just hours before the third and final reading late Wednesday in the House of Commons, Trudeau said the proposed law is unconstitutional because it intrudes on provincial jurisdiction. He recommended that MPs vote against it.

But most Liberal backbenchers, along with Conservative and New Democrat MPs, ignored Trudeau’s warning. The bill passed by a vote of 222-60.

funny thing is this “defied Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, voting in favour”, tor star are we that stupid?

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/03/08/genetic-testing-bill-up-for-vote-is-constitutional-trudeau-says.html

#118 Self Directed on 03.12.17 at 11:35 am

#59 Piet on 03.11.17 at 8:26 pm

“Prepare for it.”

We prepared for it by investing in our offspring. The RESP was an excellent investment, generating a good rate of return. The adult children are highly paid professionals now who have told us not to ever worry about money, so we don’t care about those extra expenses that are likely to occur as we approach the terminal phase. We are going to blow the savings while we can still enjoy doing so.
………………………
Entitlement meet Codependency. A very unhealthy “you owe us” attitude. You’re spending your kids money today, not yours. #badparents

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.17 at 11:55 am

Hmmmm.
Just before an election in Holland we have this.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/turkey-dutch-relations-take-dip-after-turkish-officials-barred/article34275365/

And one of the leading Dutch candidates is pushing for more control over….immigration….specifically muslim immigration…..which would incur the wrath of the EU.

Never mind “Brexit” or “Frexit” the bloody cheese chomping, tulip growing, wooden shoed Dutch may beat them all to it if Geert Wilders has his way…….

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.ft.com/content/c2827010-03fd-11e7-aa5b-6bb07f5c8e12&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjNuuDjqdHSAhVL7mMKHcbKAaUQqQIIFzAA&usg=AFQjCNGClUoeXR2ijaoHujapLMKm8m4aTw

……those crazy Walloons

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.17 at 12:02 pm

Sorry.
wrong link previously

“Gouda Geert”

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/12/geert-wilders-out-in-cold-netherlands-election&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjNuuDjqdHSAhVL7mMKHcbKAaUQFghBMAk&usg=AFQjCNEVMqT_wO7NWCHqiZMau1u5__VE8g

#121 NoName on 03.12.17 at 12:07 pm

blast from the past
CRAZY EDDY

MUST READ

As a 28 year old CPA myself, I understood that audits are very boring and tedious for these young single male auditors. It was difficult for them to pay close attention to their work. It was relatively easy to distract them without ever being blamed for obstructing their work. Rather than overtly interfering, I engaged in a calculated plan to subtly distract them with cute Crazy Eddie employees reporting to me. I encouraged my female employees to flirt and get friendly with their young male PMM counterparts and discuss audit issues with them over lunch and dinner on Crazy Eddie’s tab. Meanwhile, I took certain higher level PMM auditors to pick-up bars and other establishments frequented by good-looking women.

Our auditors wasted valuable time getting chummy with our management and female employees rather than paying attention to their jobs. As the scheduled completion of the audit neared, our auditors rushed to complete their field work and failed to undertake key audit procedures which enabled us to easily inflate our reported earnings.

crazy, crazy…

https://whitecollarfraud.com/crazy-eddie/crazy-eddie-fraud/

#122 NotOldButCouldBe on 03.12.17 at 12:15 pm

The post makes a good point in general but the Laibson research is either flawed or misrepresented. The answer to the question “If the chance of getting a disease is 10%, how many out of 1,000 will get it?” is a probability distribution, not a point value value of 100. Assuming the 1000 people are not related, we have to use the binomial distribution to obtain a probabilistic answer. There is only 4.2% chance that exactly 100 people would get the disease if the likelihood of getting it is truly 10%. There is 50.7% chance that anywhere between 94 and 106 people would get the disease. Etc.

Perhaps what the Laibson graph is showing is that as people age, their level of mathematical sophistication increases… Or perhaps they are less willing to jump to (incorrect) conclusions.

#123 Incubus on 03.12.17 at 12:17 pm

#50

“There are 7 conditions we are all likely to get in our older years;

1. High Blood pressure
2. High cholesterol (atherosclerosis)
3. Diabetes
4. Cancer
5. Dementia
6. Sarcopenia
7. Stroke or Heart failure”

They are mainly caused by inappropriate diet.

More Than Half of the American Diet is Ultra Junk Food

Ponder these parallel statistics:

Half of all Americans are chronically ill
Half of all Americans are also either pre-diabetic or diabetic
Nearly 60 percent of the American diet is ULTRA-processed junk food, and these products also account for 90 percent of the added sugar consumption in the U.S
As much as 40 percent of American health care expenditures are for diseases directly related to the overconsumption of sugar
Less than 1 percent of daily calories comes from vegetables

http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2017/03/08/us-life-expectancy-declines.aspx

#124 ANON on 03.12.17 at 12:18 pm

You’ll decline. We all will. Prepare for it.

Everything declines. Prepare for it? Accept it, rather. :)
The possibility that a civilization should die doubles our own mortality
-José Ortega

#125 yorkville renter on 03.12.17 at 12:24 pm

#99 – sometimes you need “stuff” to exercise… like when it’s minus 15 and snowing. it’s only a waste if they don’t use it

#126 dontcallmeshirley on 03.12.17 at 12:38 pm

re: cognitive peak

Or, you do as Martin Armstrong has, and transplant what you know into a model and trust it.

Armstrong calls events to the day. That’s right, to the day.

Makes the King & Bay cabal envious?

#127 joblo on 03.12.17 at 12:56 pm

Smoking dude
“Shit . I need to find a place in the same time zone that I can Walts into and pay no tax. Let my algo driven fx machine run while I play on the beach.

Internet in cuba too sloooow.

Any suggestions”

Check out:

https://www.theearthawaits.com/

#128 joblo on 03.12.17 at 12:57 pm

Smoking dude , do an Advanced search for download speeds.

#129 Cyclist on 03.12.17 at 1:04 pm

116 Yorkville – agreed. If you use it and enjoy it, then it’s worth it. 99 doomer also thinks other activites are “free”. They are not. Add $$ for good shoes, clothing for the weather, safety gear (crampons, lights and reflective).
Maybe snowshoes, poles and hiking boots depending on your location.

#130 Doug Rowat on 03.12.17 at 1:06 pm

#124 NotOldButCouldBe on 03.12.17 at 12:15 pm

The post makes a good point in general but the Laibson research is either flawed or misrepresented. The answer to the question “If the chance of getting a disease is 10%, how many out of 1,000 will get it?” is a probability distribution, not a point value value of 100. Assuming the 1000 people are not related, we have to use the binomial distribution to obtain a probabilistic answer. There is only 4.2% chance that exactly 100 people would get the disease if the likelihood of getting it is truly 10%. There is 50.7% chance that anywhere between 94 and 106 people would get the disease. Etc.

Perhaps what the Laibson graph is showing is that as people age, their level of mathematical sophistication increases… Or perhaps they are less willing to jump to (incorrect) conclusions.

Were you advising Trump on inauguration crowd sizes?

–Doug

#131 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.12.17 at 1:06 pm

#40 wow on 03.10.17 at 7:23 pm
i’d like to meet the buyers of that house!
—————-
Pal, it’s gonna cost you a trip to China.
Still in?

#132 For Euro Observer on 03.12.17 at 1:11 pm

#110 Euro Observer on 03.12.17 at 10:46 am

That is my experience we well, for 1000 USD a month you can run a 24/7 nursing home as a corporation with access to nurse/doctor at any point in time and 3 shitfs of care givers in Central/Sout america/south europe (Greece, Spain), this is les sthat the rent for a studio in GTA,

It is 5-6 times cheaper thatn a crappy nurinsg home in To, and these are not good!

Thank you for the useful information.

Could we get in touch for more details?

#133 Cici on 03.12.17 at 1:13 pm

Good post, but a bit dramatic.

For all those who think they’re special, some will be right. My SO’s grandma was sharp as a whip right up until her death last summer at 93 (right before her 94th birthday). She succumbed to lung problems that came on rather fast, but cognitively, she was more lucid at 93 than I was at 42 (and I’m not even the dumbest of the dumb). I think her secret was a combination of great genes and an active, industrious life. She was a devout Catholic and very active and social within her church, with friends of all ages and colours, played lots of board games with friends and family, canned her own vegetables and made her own pizzas (dough and all), along with other baked goods…right up until she was put in a care home at 92 due to hip problems.

Her husband is still alive at 95, but has had Alzheimers since his late eighties. Luckily he had money set aside for a great retirement care facility, and has wondérful kids that look out for him and visit regularly.

#134 Will Erdogan open the door on 03.12.17 at 1:26 pm

#115 MF on 03.12.17 at 11:03 am

#69 Will Erdogan open the door on 03.11.17 at 10:08 pm

100% support the Dutch on this (and almost everything).

They have a history of standing up for their beliefs.

MF

They certainly do, beginning with their royal family.

#135 TRT on 03.12.17 at 2:13 pm

Vancouver condo prices and Townhouse prices at record highs…… again!

Detached down last month but on fire this month. Detached just sold for $800,000 OVER ASKING and it was listed at assessment value.

Just in time for Christy lifting the foreign buyers tax for foreign students and homemakers.

#136 Damifino on 03.12.17 at 2:36 pm

#124 NotOldButCouldBe

Here’s the question they should have asked:

If the chance of rolling a seven is one in six, what is the chance of rolling a seven?

Bonus question:

Which weighs more, a pound of feathers or a pound of lead?

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.17 at 2:51 pm

@#136 Will Erdogan open the door
Re;
MF “They have a history of standing up for their beliefs……..
********************************************
Pray tell when have they stood up for their “beliefs”?
AFTER Holland surrendered to the Germans…?
The Dutch Royal Family was esconsed in Ottawa for the 2nd World war….hence Princess Margereit’s “dual citizenship” since she was born in canuckda

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada%25E2%2580%2593Netherlands_relations&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjLo4_X0NHSAhVE0WMKHcXdAdIQFgggMAM&usg=AFQjCNH5qkjLFtC7adcceFbLzWtD4VbELQ

As John Cleese once described the WWII French
as “cheese eating surrender monkeys” …..there also go the WWII Dutch….

my apologies to cheese eating monkeys everywhere

yes. I’m a bastard

#138 Damifino on 03.12.17 at 3:03 pm

#10 JSS

”There are a growing number of 70+ year olds at my work. They’re virtually all old men in senior mgmt positions. Clogging the career paths for the rest.”
———————————–

I’m proud to say that at the age of 56, I had the common decency to clear the way for some enthusiastic young pup to take their own crack at success in the cynical, race-to-the-bottom industry I left behind.

Take heed of Mr. Rowat, grasshopper. Make provision for the old bumpkin that will one day emerge. Do it while you still have some resilience to silly corporate nonsense. That gets a bit tough after fifty.

#139 technical analysis? on 03.12.17 at 3:12 pm

#56 Porsche on 03.11.17 at 8:08 pm
___________________________________

you’re lucky a mugging was all that happened. i hate Belize city. hoping for a majour hurricane to hit that place dead on and wipe it away.

i always felt safer in Mexico. never had a problem there. in Chetumal, Bacalar, Calderitas, Merida.. so much safer there than Belize.

Smokingman? you trade FX? what do you care what time zone you’re in. 24 hour market.

Southern Europe best place to retire. Or Mexico. either or.

#140 jess on 03.12.17 at 6:48 pm

#29 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 5:18 pm
…thought you might like this one
momentum effect

Are market bubbles caused by traders’ testosterone levels?

Ben-Gurion U. Research finds that only men experience psychological momentum

Date:
March 1, 2017
Source:
American Associates, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
Summary:
Such an effect may lead male traders, driven by an increase in testosterone due to a successful investment, to take exaggerated risks, which, in turn, create price bubbles. By increasing the number of women in financial markets, it may be possible to stabilize these markets since women have less dramatic shifts in testosterone levels, which can make them less prone to the momentum effect. ”

Research conducted at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev (BGU) has determined that psychological momentum significantly affects performance among men but not among women, which may account for exaggerated risk-taking in financial and business endeavors among males.

Psychological momentum is defined as a state-of-mind where an individual or a team feels things are going unstoppably their way and is known to be caused, among other factors, by shifts in testosterone levels. The study, “Psychological Momentum and Gender,” is published in the March volume of the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170301091451.htm

#141 jess on 03.12.17 at 7:03 pm

a first?

March 7, 2017
Former Executive Director Of The Ramapo Local Development Corporation Pleads Guilty To Securities Fraud And Conspiracy Charges
U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara said: “As we said at the time of his arrest, N. Aaron Troodler defrauded both the citizens of Ramapo and thousands of investors around the country, helping to sell over $150 million of municipal bonds on fabricated financials. Today, Troodler has admitted to committing securities fraud. This guilty plea, in what we believe to be the first municipal bond-related criminal securities fraud prosecution, is a big step in policing and bringing accountability to the $3.7 trillion municipal bond market.”
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-executive-director-ramapo-local-development-corporation-pleads-guilty-securities

#142 NotOldButCouldBe on 03.12.17 at 7:31 pm

I looked it up. In the original article the question is “…how many people out of 1,000 *would be expected* to get the disease?” to which the correct answer is indeed 100, the point estimate of maximum likelihood, and the intuitive answer for anyone with high school math. But what was posted on the blog was a different question, whose actual answer was in my previous comment.

This was not a joke. Numbers are just numbers, it’s their interpretation that matters. Wouldn’t this also be the case for investment decisions?

#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.17 at 8:20 am

@#150 jess
“U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara …..)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

This would be the same U.S. Attorney for New York State that Trump just fired……..
Sundays New York Times has the full story. Front page

#144 Hoser on 03.13.17 at 9:24 am

>>And so, with Murphy’s Law alive and well, the American voter went out and elected Donald J. Trump, the oldest elected president in US history. Are we all prepared, kids?

So they should have voted for Hillary who looked and acted like she was at death’s door already?