Balls

All set for today’s reason to be happy you don’t live in Toronto?

Here it is! 18 Mitchell Avenue, almost near the epicentre of the fading trendy area of Queen West, where all the cool stores are closing because they can’t afford the rent, as a result of morons buying houses like 18 Mitchell for insane amounts.

So it started life as a bung, before growing a cancerous red rump thing out the back. A semi, too. Half a house. Just 25 feet across. No parking. Barely habitable. Dirt basement. On a trashy street just up from a truck depot. “This place,” says blog dog Nick, “is downright horrible.”

The manicured outside:

The kitchen, all appliances included (so the buyer can pay to dispose of them):

The master bedroom suite:

Bathroom spa area:

The realtor’s effusive description – which managed to get this listing sold, sold, sold in less than a week:

An Incredible Opportunity To Own A 3-Bdrm Home On A Premium/Rare, Extra Wide Lot In The Heart Of Queen West – One Of The Most Dynamic & Sought-After Toronto Neighbourhoods. Live-In, Invest, Add-On, Or Renovate With Your Personal Touches. Expand Sq Footage With Basement Renovation. Spacious Interior With Interesting Layout. Great Potential To Make Your Mark & Design Your Dream Home Or Income Property. A Blank Canvas With Plenty Of Upside. **** EXTRAS **** Steps To Trinity Bellwoods Park, Queen West Boutiques & Unrivalled Culinary Destinations. Gas Range, Fridge, 2 Washer & Dryers. Property & All Inclusions Being Sold In “”As Is’ Condition. Open House Sat/Sun 2-4Pm

Here’s a tour of the inside. Link

So, it was listed for an unbelievable $999,000 (the same seller had briefly tried it at $799,000 in the fall) and sold with multiple offers for $1,175,000. Now, the chances of this having been snapped up by a house-horny millionaire dude from Hangzhou are, well, slim. More likely the buyer was a first-time buyer (after all, this is an entry-level price) infected with the deadly FOMO virus, or some deluded speculator thinking he can build a cool new house, forgetting this is Siamesed to another piece of crap. Whatever. To normal people little stories like this add up to the same thing. Risk. The best highway in the GTA is one with Queen West in the rear view.

The main and immediate threat remains the rising cost of money. Friday’s boffo job stats sealed the lips of anyone arguing interest rates are not about to swell. They are. On Wednesday. The US economy is being transfused with Trump testo, while the Canadian employment scene has taken a jolt higher. No doubt now that the Fed will add a quarter point to its key rate next week, nor that other hikes will follow in 2017. Analysts were expecting 190,000 new hires in February, and the number came in at 235,000. For the last three months it’s averaged 209,000, with the American jobless rate down to 4.7%. That’s considered full employment. Even more significant – people are earning more. Average wages up 2.8%, way ahead of recent annual gains.

And Canada? Good here, too. Over 15,300 new positions last month with unemployment at a two-year low. Sadly, however, wages are stuck in the ditch – up just 1.1% year/year for permanent workers, which is just half the current inflation rate. Compared to the cost of living, Canadians are going backwards. Compared to Toronto real estate, they’re buried.

So what happens now?

Rising American rates will keep bond yields up, flowing through into higher Canadian mortgage rates. As Trump throws gas on the US economy, the central bank will toss more quarter points onto the chart. At some point, facing a slumping loonie, rising dollar-caused inflation and a decent jobs situation, the Bank of Canada will follow. In the last six months, Canada has created more new employees than at any time since 2007. Governor Poloz will soon run out of excuses, leaving his boss, T2, holding the bag.

Concurrent with this playing out is political action. Ontario looks ready to bring in a foreign buyer’s tax, even though the best available stats show 95% of all deals are between locals. It’s politics. It plays to the deplorables. Blaming (or taxing) others is always a political win. But as in BC, such an action amid stressed and abnormal conditions (lack of supply, rampant speculation and – especially – extreme pricing) is a market killer. And we’ve already heard Ottawa is pondering new measures to douse the animal spirits unleashed amid the cougars, vixens, weasels and studs of the GTA.

Meanwhile all this pathetic blog wants to do is take the seller of 18 Mitchell out for a scotch. You know why.

177 comments ↓

#1 turn of the tide on 03.10.17 at 6:14 pm

Hey Garth,

If I deposit USD funds into my RRSP/TFSA, which date is used for the currency exchange rate conversion?

For example, if I dump $10K USD, how do I figure how much of my contribution limit will I have used?

Danke Schoen.

Date of deposit. — Garth

#2 Nonplused on 03.10.17 at 6:20 pm

Well, I guess $1,115,000 isn’t what it used to be.

#3 pathcontrolmonk on 03.10.17 at 6:22 pm

The political win in BC is Christy being investigated by the RCMP.

#4 Zimmerp on 03.10.17 at 6:24 pm

Even Forrest Gump wouldn’t buy this piece of shit.

Too smart.

#5 AB Boxster on 03.10.17 at 6:25 pm

Its more than obvious that this home was built during the highy acclaimed minimalist period of the 1960s.

Why, just the brilliant choice of colour coordination and art deco inspired form and function should mean that this baby could be flipped for a cool million profit.

The fact that it has an 8 in the address is highly desirable, for the foreign crowd too.

Yep, its a wiener, er winner.

#6 Ryan on 03.10.17 at 6:25 pm

Garth why do you dislike the Foreign Buyer Tax?

Helps fight rising prices by removing or atleast discouraging some participants. Helps the constiuents believe their gov’t is doing something. Helps the gov’t get some easy money off strangers outside the country. Seems like a win/win across the board.

The more governments diddle with the marketplace the poorer the eventual outcome for everyone. — Garth

#7 The Dark Side of the Boom on 03.10.17 at 6:26 pm

“Rock-bottom interest rates have made big mortgages look less expensive, lighting a fire under house prices. But for many homeowners, when rates start rising, it won’t end well,” Rob Carrick reports. — The Globe and Mail, Mar. 2, 2017

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/genymoney/mortgage-overload-canadian-housing-finance/article33279552/

#8 just stupid on 03.10.17 at 6:28 pm

yeah that’s just stupid.

#9 Darryl on 03.10.17 at 6:30 pm

Foreign buyer’s tax. Bring it . Anything to kill this beast .

#10 Interest Rate Risk on 03.10.17 at 6:30 pm

“Remember: Lower market interest rates [lead to] higher fixed-rate bond prices [which lead to] lower fixed-rate bond yields [which lead to] higher interest rate risk to rising market interest rates. Because of this relationship, it is particularly important for investors to consider interest rate risk when they purchase bonds in a low-interest-rate environment.”
— U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

https://www.sec.gov/investor/alerts/ib_interestraterisk.pdf

#11 Herb on 03.10.17 at 6:31 pm

Gee, Garth, some cute points about the effect of the POTUS you love to hate by a senior RJ honcho following the 5:00 mark –

http://www.cbc.ca/news/following-the-bull-run-1.4018664

#12 Foreign Capital on 03.10.17 at 6:31 pm

Still in denial about the impact of foreign capital?

A whopping 30% increase in prices in less than a year, after BC implemented its foreign buyers tax and diverted the foreign capital to other parts of BC and the GTA.

Did people just discover low rates in the GTA? Is the economy so incredibly hot there in the last six months that wages are going up 30%? Were there more rate cuts making mortgages even easier? We all know the answer to those questions….

Low rates have been around since 2009….

Wage growth is anemic at 1%….

No more rate cuts since 2015….

The federal mortgage rates supposedly took out 10-20% of first time buyers….

The ‘reliable’ Vancouver RE cartel, politicians, the media and development industry liked to deny the influence of foreign capital as well. For years, prices went through the roof while those vested interests touted 5% of buyers were foreign – 40 to 60% increase in prices in the last two years…

5% is a nice optical number – just enough to be able to say ‘buy now before you get priced out by foreign buyers’ but not enough to fully raise the alarm and cause people to call for a ban or tax on foreign ownership.

How did that 5% franken number work out in BC? Right, it was purely fictions – provincial data, much more reliable that the RE data, showed it was much higher in Metro Vancouver communities. In communities like Burnaby and Richmond it was over 20%….

We all know that its low interest rates that drive the market right? The two rate cuts by the BOC was supposed to spike prices by 10%. By that same logic, 3 rate increase this year will cut prices by more than 10%….

We will see in less than a year if its rates or foreign capital that drives the market…

#13 Trojan House on 03.10.17 at 6:32 pm

Well, in 1970 that house would have only cost about $174,000 (bank of Canada inflation calculator).

#14 earthboundmisfit on 03.10.17 at 6:34 pm

Dafuq!?! The buyer of this POS seriously needs to have their head read.

#15 CL on 03.10.17 at 6:36 pm

Good grief….even the ECB is rumored to be heading to raise rates. Canadians had better wake up and pronto. Or, more likely, Trudeau et al will save these morons at the expense of the responsible.

BoC will be forced to raise no doubt about it. Most likely later this year. The gift today is TD. Great time to be picking away at it while the blood flows.

#16 LJ on 03.10.17 at 6:38 pm

18 Mitchell is overpriced by about a million. I don’t care where it is located.

Whoever bought that house will need more than one Scotch. (But, won’t be able to afford it.)

Sad indeed!!!

#17 turn of the tide on 03.10.17 at 6:39 pm

What is there to say?

This house is where dreams to go die.

It doesn’t even have a freaking shower!

And renting is bad?? Ok, then.

#18 Guy in Calgary on 03.10.17 at 6:41 pm

Isn’t this the type of property that gets listed as a “own this gorgeous character home today, a blank canvas waiting for your ideas. A true gem tucked away on a beautiful street in one of the most sought after communities in the Universe. Just waiting for a handyman’s touch.” AKA a $1.1M piece of dilapidated garbage.

Cowtown deathwatch has become GTA deathwatch. Nah, it’s different this time.

#19 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 03.10.17 at 6:41 pm

#73 Tony on 03.09.17 at 9:03 pm

Re: #5 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 03.09.17 at 6:30 pm

I hope you took out a large mortgage as large as possible. You’ll be much further ahead paying back that mortgage in the future in devalued Canadian dollars vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar.
——————————————————
Sorry for confusion. We’re Canadians on the selling end of that place, but located in the States currently…. hopefully whoever bought it cashed out in Toronto or Van, but we haven’t heard from realtor about where the buyers are from…

#20 TRUMP on 03.10.17 at 6:42 pm

How did this great country of Canada with so many smart, polite, and intelligent breed of human beings on the planet turn into a nation of SUCKERS!!!! ?

#21 smuck on 03.10.17 at 6:44 pm

BALLS……is right.

BALLS DEEP in DEBT.

#22 conan on 03.10.17 at 6:45 pm

This house just screams black mold problem. You need to go into the basement and see what paint they used, or request the name of the painter who did the work. Even then it looks like a butcher job.

The lot is big…..this is a tear down.

#23 cd on 03.10.17 at 6:47 pm

There is this one on a longer piece of land…

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17857899/74-MARKHAM-Street-Toronto-Ontario-M6J2G5-Trinity-Bellwoods

more land = more $$$.. but 2.7M… yikes.

My question is why do the listing start each word with a capital letter? It makes me think even less of real estate agents… like they still have second grade writing skills.

#24 Tom from Mississauga on 03.10.17 at 6:50 pm

Got my Doc Martins during store’s brief life at Queen and Spadina, slip’m on and I’m back in 1993.

#25 Doug t on 03.10.17 at 6:53 pm

There will be blood in the streets – Just wait till the fed hikes rates that’s the beginning of the SHTF moment – canada doesn’t stand a chance – we are in for years of pain

#26 common sense on 03.10.17 at 6:53 pm

WOW….I can honestly say I thought I had seen a lot in my life but those photos and that price…call Ripley’s.

Rate hike in 5 days and the odds of June’s went to 50% today as well.

Don’t walk on sidewalks under tall buildings in Toronto the next few years……

#27 paulo on 03.10.17 at 6:54 pm

Garth i think a large timmys might be more appropriate
and it be awarded to the purchaser of this dump, they must have been in there cups when the sealed the deal and the hangover will be a killer

I’m tasting the seller, not the buyer. — Garth

#28 HellYeah on 03.10.17 at 6:55 pm

I used to own on Mitchell Ave. A nice quiet street close to the hustle of Queen West.

None of the houses on that street are particularly well built, and the bungalows were maybe the worst (compared to the 1900s row houses a bit further to the west).

There used to be a few green grocers around the corner, and a health food store, and a nice record store, and a rough around the edges pub in that ‘hood. The pub is still there but everything else has been replaced by designer something something. Hope the owners are planning to take the overcrowded 501 or bike to get groceries. And I hope they are a structural engineer for when they realise that the joists and footings are either missing or woefully undersized.

#29 Porsche on 03.10.17 at 6:55 pm

Oh my F’n God.

It just keeps getting more stupid day by day in this house horny country.

#30 common sense on 03.10.17 at 6:57 pm

“The more governments diddle with the marketplace, the poorer the eventual outcome for everyone.”

I’m pretty sure that is going to be applied to financial markets too….see Japan the past decade and The USA, China and the EU coming sooner than later.

Look out below…..Brazil will have company.

#31 Cheap Houses on 03.10.17 at 6:59 pm

Welcome to Canada. Where we bust the Prince and Princess of pot while letting billions and billions of dollars get laundered unabated.

Agreed, the less we diddle in the free market the better. However, this assumes the RCMP and CRA would be doing their jobs. Which they clearly are not.

#32 Paul on 03.10.17 at 7:00 pm

Wow just the talk of a foreign buyers tax, has increased the calls to the office by about 20%. On the day before March break no less!
Didn’t plan a open house as everyone was going out of town duh.

#33 Yeah! on 03.10.17 at 7:03 pm

Tax those foreign buyers! I for one, love it. I love it, love it, love it!

#34 Grey Dog on 03.10.17 at 7:03 pm

In my little nook of the GTA where Donna lives, (one of Garth’s blog notes from the past), it has been 5 years since property has been sold to someone that isn’t offshore! Vacant 2m$ homes all around my hood. Believe me these are NOT the 2m$ homes one envisions! Ya my home is worth that but in all honesty Builder Grade housing from the mid 80s???

This market needs to COOL, and if you live here and contribute to the Canadian infrastructure by paying Canadian income tax. GREAT. However, if you merely pay property tax, and want the security of a commodity in the form of sticks and bricks in that great land of Canada, please pay a foreign tax for the privilege of owning a part of Canada. A small price to compensate for the missing provincial and federal taxes that should be paid on incomes that could afford such houses.

Question: Is capital gains paid when these properties are flipped? The honour system is not working. Canada NEEDS this money!

#35 Victor V on 03.10.17 at 7:07 pm

A foreign buyer tax won’t solve Toronto’s housing woes, brokers say

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/03/10/a-foreign-buyer-tax-wont-solve-torontos-housing-woes-brokers-say.html

“Imposing a tax on foreign buyers will not have the desired effect of cooling the housing market and could create adverse effects,” Larry Cerqua, president of TREB said in the statement. “It will do little to correct the real issue impacting housing affordability, which is the lack of available housing supply.”

#36 jess on 03.10.17 at 7:09 pm

From the last blog: “Number one, GGP, is a real estate trust. Sure would have beat investing in RE itself. ”
America had more retail floor space per capita than any other country in the world, and oversupply had been the biggest problem.

http://deadmalls.com/index.html
———————
depends ,,,have a look at the history
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GGP_Inc.

GGP failed to reach a deal with its creditors; and on April 16, 2009, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy: the largest real estate bankruptcy since at least 1980, and the largest ever filing by a mall operator.[14] [15]

According to its bankruptcy filing, GGP had about $29.6 billion in assets at the end of 2008, and $27.3 billion in debt.

https://web.archive.org/web/20090416234123/https://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jCY8PjJjZxNxC33tqNc6cf9g4-RAD97JQITG4

https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/general-growth-properties-files-for-bankruptcy/

#37 paulo on 03.10.17 at 7:12 pm

I Am With you on the Avoidance of bringing goverment or additional tax measures, lets face it when was the last time any goverment intervention in private markets ended well ? That being said this real estate boondoggle is now at such a epic level,that the coming correction threatens the broader economy in addition to the banking stability we cherish in this country.
unfortunately it would seem that the only way to deflate this bubble into a controlled correction will be by way of the dreaded Government intervention.
So Blog Dogs put your caps on and ponder the least invasive way the goverment might intervene and slow down the real estate train. hopefully people responsible for policy are reading this blog , and your idea gets used
post your recommendations, you might even get a ice cream with free sparkles- priceless-

#38 Dave on 03.10.17 at 7:14 pm

Garth,
I keep hearing people cite lack of supply for TO and Van as a reason for the absurd housing prices. If you look at the immigration numbers from Stats Can, we didn’t have a sudden spike in the last 3 years of people, nor was there a huge uptick in people moving to Van or TO, so how can it all of a sudden be lack of supply?

Because it is. Listings are down 50% year/year. It’s a function of stupid prices. As they move higher, fewer people can afford to sell and move, especially given 5% selling commissions and double land transfer tax upon buying. So, renos are booming. — Garth

#39 wallflower on 03.10.17 at 7:20 pm

The earthquake in queue on the west coast will cool the RE markets big time. I am thinking the Energy File might be the parallel trigger in Ontario. These ongoing Liberal governments have massively messed up on this file and the tail of that dragon will whack all residents and in particular homeowners and workers via taxes.
I am looking at this chart of nuclear energy cost tables. It seems to me, if I could understand this chart, I might be able to start to understand how seriously out of control our nuclear file is in Ontario.
Can anyone explain this?
http://thebulletin.org/nuclear-fuel-cycle-cost-calculator/model

#40 Long-Time Lurker on 03.10.17 at 7:22 pm

Thanks for the comment yesterday, Garth. It’s always good to get another viewpoint.

…and thanks for that blurb by Bill Gross, Like Nitro Baby.

GTA, this won’t end well.

#41 wow on 03.10.17 at 7:23 pm

i’d like to meet the buyers of that house!

#42 Self Directed on 03.10.17 at 7:24 pm

LOL! I love the fire hydrant out front with the fancy border outline. The landscaping is top notch.

Looking at the inside pics made me feel bad about myself, the new owner is in for some therapy.

Seller must be getting seriously hammered right now.

#43 Ace Goodheart on 03.10.17 at 7:26 pm

18 Mitchell is a tear down. Doesn’t matter if it’s a semi. They will tear it down anyway. The backyard is huge and 25 feet is a lot of lot in that area.

With semis they just tear down one side, then shore up the poor orphaned other side and then they hope they can rebuild without engendering a lawsuit. Usually it works out.

Oh the reason all the Queen West stores are closing is because of the “highest and best use” tax principle. Basically they tax the land as if it had a 40 storey condo on it (even though there is a little store with an apartment). Forces out the tenants and forces the owner to sell, and then the condos come….

#44 Damifino on 03.10.17 at 7:26 pm

…this is Siamesed to another piece of crap

That’s the deal killer. A bulldozer would solve the rest.

#45 Marcus on 03.10.17 at 7:26 pm

Definitely a Feng Shui buyer. Address adds to the lucky number nine. Whatever the price you must buy the nine!

#46 Wrk.dover on 03.10.17 at 7:26 pm

Friend bought the actual cheapest house listed in Toronto on that particular day in 1979, on Jilson @ Jane and Dundas. Basement and two storey, 1/2 house way nicer than this, actually scrubbable and liveable as was…$40,000.

#47 RentYVR on 03.10.17 at 7:27 pm

“Friday’s boffo job stats sealed the lips of anyone arguing interest rates are not about to swell”

This is misleading Garth. Rates in the US will rise sure and they should. US rates are and will remain well below ours. Canada’s rates of course are not about to rise and are more likely to drop down towards where the US rates currently sit.

US Fed rate this week coming will be .75-1.0%. The BoC rate is 0.5%. Get out more. — Garth

#48 AJ on 03.10.17 at 7:32 pm

Garth- with great respect, you’re wrong about government intervention. I know you’re right 99% of the time but the game has changed. See Sydney. One of the longest overheated RE markets in the world. Have you been there? The place is not amazing. It’s a solid meh. Government needs to identify holes in the dam and plug them with whatever tools possible. Foreign buyers are a thing. They have impacted the market and there’s loads that can be done to make it more transparent, ethical, and most importantly appropriately taxed. Prudent. Smart. Watching. Not eyes closed, drunk at the party smiling and kissing babies and hoping no one notices that the economy has no future.

#49 millennial-falcon on 03.10.17 at 7:33 pm

vancouvers market has been killed ?
pre builds selling out detached entirely out of reach and condos are hot

what r you talking about garth the lower sales numbers?
even mr kay admits prices have not moved much in the sub 2 mil range rather people are getting more house for their money . make no mistake 604 is still booming its white hot now instead of fukishima nuclear hot that is all

#50 yorkville renter on 03.10.17 at 7:39 pm

and wouldn’t you know… now Trump thinks the employment numbers are accurate, when just 5 months ago it was all fiction and fake news. what a jackass

#51 George on 03.10.17 at 7:41 pm

Seller seems to be a law firm:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/bhatti-&-co-accountants

Call ’em up, Garth!

House was listed for $800k in the fall and deal fell through.

Accounting firm. — Garth

#52 Jay on 03.10.17 at 7:41 pm

” wages are stuck in the ditch – up just 1.1% year/year for permanent workers”

aka less than inflation. This country is in the crapper, and our politicians are too busy adjusting their hair to notice.

#53 Self Directed on 03.10.17 at 7:42 pm

16 Mitchell Ave, I just drove down the street using Google StreetView… I really do not understand the love for Toronto housing. All these skinny lots and ugly semis.

C’mon people, if you’re going to paint your house, or change the windows, or shingle the roof, at least TRY to agree with your neighbour on MATCHING MATERIALS! UGLY. AS. $*@$.

I now believe more than ever, the housing market will crash in Toronto first (soon), then Vancouver.

#54 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 7:43 pm

Holly Smokes.

#55 Anderson on 03.10.17 at 7:43 pm

Less than a week. fml.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.17 at 7:43 pm

@#12 Trojan Man
“Well, in 1970 that house would have only cost about $174,000 ”
********************************************
You might want to check 1970 prices.
Good chance that ugly piece of crap was selling for about 25-30 grand.

#57 Anderson on 03.10.17 at 7:45 pm

Glad you also noticed that it can’t be foreign buyers here. It doesn’t make sense if there money isn’t getting over now. Chinese buyer’s can’t even pay mortgages anymore.

https://betterdwelling.com/chinas-capital-outflows-just-reversed-bad-news-for-global-real-estate/

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.17 at 7:46 pm

@#15 LJ
“Whoever bought that house will need more than one Scotch. ”
******************************************
Well.
With any luck ,they can beat themselves to death with the empty bottle.
Or
Pick a fight with the greaterfool in the mirror.

#59 boopsie on 03.10.17 at 7:53 pm

Check out this article in Boston Globe Feb 26…How the Boomers Betrayed This Country. Some ring of truth there. Tax policy has always pandered to this large demographic, changing as they moved through life.
This guy made a fortune on Tech and is now whining like a typical Gen Y.

#60 Victor V on 03.10.17 at 8:04 pm

If Ontario wants to cool house prices, here are some tax options

http://www.bnn.ca/if-ontario-wants-to-cool-house-prices-here-are-some-tax-options-1.693282

#61 Cto on 03.10.17 at 8:07 pm

Want to solve the foreign buyer problem?
Move Pearson International Airport to Sudbury,
Solved!

#62 Mean Gene on 03.10.17 at 8:09 pm

Pigsty.

#63 Deal with it folks on 03.10.17 at 8:21 pm

Dear readers, foreign money is a fact of life – deal with it!

People in the Caribbean were displaced from the coastline of the islands by richer North Americans and Europeans.

Now Canadians will be displaced from the areas surrounding the Great Lakes by the richer Oriental populations. This isn’t bad, this isn’t good, it’s just how life works.

Rising interest rates won’t stop this trend, a foreign buyer tax won’t stop this trend. China’s economic accent has another 40 years to go and within this time the political, economic, and social landscape of Canada will be altered accordingly.

Canadians are so naive to the massive amount of wealth within China. They have already surpassed the USA by any reasonable measure despite what the MSM parrots. Anyone who has traveled extensively through the USA and China like myself will know exactly what I’m writing about. The difference is massive. New York, Chicago, LA, etc. and not even close.

Canadian real estate, farmland, industrial zones will all be slowly transferred to the wealth generated in China. This is not that bad because it will lead to more productive use of Canadian assets in the future.

So you can keep praying in vain that some Finance Minister will do something, or that rising interests rate will do something OR you can drop the wishful thinking and deal with reality. This is a foreign takeover so accept it. Europeans did it do the local Native population and they managed to survive. Local Canadians will survive too.

Btw, you can be sure that Canada will have a Prime Minister of historical Chinese ethnicity within 25 years. You can also bet on this with 99% confidence.

I’ve been studying Mandarin for a solid 8 years now, so I’m ready for this interesting and exciting future – are you?

We had a Canadian Governor-General of Chinese ethnicity (and birth) 18 years ago. How scary was that? — Garth

#64 northerngirl on 03.10.17 at 8:24 pm

God help us.

#65 Ret on 03.10.17 at 8:34 pm

You wanna live in a world class city, you gotta pay!

#66 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 8:40 pm

I m stupid

#67 mark on 03.10.17 at 8:45 pm

I always knew there would be bad outcomes when the government shut down the insane asylums, but I never thought it would be this bad.

#68 Canadian Moose on 03.10.17 at 8:47 pm

Yup, I am still here in the Hinterland. This Moose agrees, what a piece s..t. What ever Moose bought that home needs a pack of wolves for neighbors.

I cannot stand Mooses that embarrass me! Oiy! Lol

#69 TurnerNation on 03.10.17 at 9:01 pm

Saw a headline Analsyts not expecting BofC rate hike till 2018. Clearly they are following Smoking man.

With a few cosmetic renos and addition of a mortgage helper basement suite (“seller does not warrant retro fit status”) it will flip for 1.3-1.4m by then.

Hipsters will smell this sale and be all over that street. “Up and coming area. Million dollar houses. ”

Atsa da boy.

Working on bachelor degree in Herdonomics…

My41ON

#70 JSS on 03.10.17 at 9:01 pm

Hey, wasn’t that the house from Silence of the Lambs?

Can’t believe it’s worth over a million now.

#71 quack..quack....ribbit ribbit on 03.10.17 at 9:03 pm

foreign buyers?
people, their lawyers withhold 3o% (?) on closing for cra,
he has to file a return if he wants some of it back

its a straw man argument that may appeal to rubes, shut ins, half witts, and average Canadians

the root problem is supply
under building houses
over building condos

#72 TurnerNation on 03.10.17 at 9:05 pm

Hmm I got Smoking man’s login creds after posting my comment. Explains ‘his’ one liner post above.
Data leaking.

M41ON

#73 Linda on 03.10.17 at 9:15 pm

However did the dog get all the balls in its mouth? Did a human help? Because if the dog did it, that is one dexterous pup:)

As for the property pictured in this post – oy. On the outside it looks like a prime location for some slasher-horror flick, cue the ominous music. The interior pictures do not reflect good value for money paid. I strongly suspect the kitchen started life as a garage – I’d swear I’ve seen the same kind of steps in garages in our neighborhood. The master bedroom looks like the only bed that would allow one space to pass is a twin. The bathroom does not exactly scream sybaritic lifestyle to be had. As for the dirt basement, given the house exterior I’d be checking to see if the dirt had been recently disturbed. It just has that kind of vibe…..

#74 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 9:18 pm

Hey Feminists.

Martha Ellis Gellhorn

This is a true feminist.. good luck coming close.

#75 OMERS on 03.10.17 at 9:21 pm

I don’t think interest rates are going anywhere…..

#76 Leo Trollstoy on 03.10.17 at 9:26 pm

I told everybody on this blog how Toronto RE prices are strong and climbing for years. Now we see the result of my accurate prediction.

I still thing its crazy and I hope I’m still alive to see it end.

#77 Leo Trollstoy on 03.10.17 at 9:32 pm

Foreign buyers tax won’t have any impact in Toronto.

Nada

#78 Spectacle on 03.10.17 at 9:33 pm

Honourable Garth Turner.

This blog post is the pinnacle, the peak of house crazy. I laughed, My , well, to use tonight’s title: my “Balls” off. And the laughs built Garth. Excellence as usual.
Thank you.

But, it begs the question:
why doesn’t the neighbour next door sell? Must be huffing pure Fentanil!

Must read the rest of the blog comments.

Ps: Re stagnating wages in Canada, I quit a last work gig. They hate me for leaving a crap values company. Immediately increased my billing by 20% income.

#79 ShawnG in TO on 03.10.17 at 9:36 pm

> #52 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 7:43 pm
Holly Smokes.

hey Smoky, hows reno going ?
looks like you are richer than you think

#80 Spectacle on 03.10.17 at 9:43 pm

Reply to:

“#16 turn of the tide on 03.10.17 at 6:39 pm
What is there to say?

This house is where dreams to go die.

It doesn’t even have a freaking shower!

And renting is bad?? Ok, then.”

Gosh, Garth, I’m still laughing! But wait, isn’t that a power outlet right beside the tub ( without a shower).

Can’t wait to see what Crowded Elevator has to offer up tonight . Ohh, And the exposed Gas line in the kitchen, to hell with baby proofing! Oh, got to dry my eyes….

#81 april on 03.10.17 at 9:44 pm

Garth, or anyone, if people are afraid to sell because they don’t see anything to buy what has to happen for the supply to increase?

#82 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 9:54 pm

#77 ShawnG in TO on 03.10.17 at 9:36 pm
> #52 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 7:43 pm
Holly Smokes.

hey Smoky, hows reno going ?
looks like you are richer than you think.
….

One more week. If I find a job I’m staying till spring of 2018. I’ll get 2 million for this shit hole.. If not I got to sell. No choice.

I’m almost out of loot. Forex, what was I thinking is all I’m saying..

#83 Spectacle on 03.10.17 at 9:58 pm

Damifino on 03.10.17 at 7:26 pm
…this is Siamesed to another piece of crap

That’s the deal killer. A bulldozer would solve the rest.

……..or a match!

#84 mike from mtl on 03.10.17 at 9:58 pm

Governor Poloz will soon run out of excuses, leaving his boss, T2, holding the bag.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////

yea right, the excuses will be obscure, indirect and endless. hey worked for the FED for a decade, how is the BoC any different? like to be proven wrong but the BoC is not moving in the minimum next 3 years I’m put money down. Probably the next ‘crisis’ like oil, housing, dollar, employment, bank failure(s) will be the perfect set of excuses.

prove me wrong!

Yes I agree that PoS (piece of sh..) is not at all ‘worth’ that. I’d see an identical sell for 250k (real dollars) in the south Chicago where I’ve actually seen. Also a comparable joint in Montreal would be around 275~350k asking!

You squareheads in TO have to see the world clearly.

#85 Great Balls of fire on 03.10.17 at 10:00 pm

Crazy crazy stuff. A total shit hole.. weird – a 1/2 of a house!!

A fast flipped infill and I bet a greater greater fool is still possible.

It’s totally insane.

#86 quack..quack....ribbit ribbit on 03.10.17 at 10:01 pm

#79 april on 03.10.17 at 9:44 pm
Garth, or anyone, if people are afraid to sell because they don’t see anything to buy what has to happen for the supply to increase?

new subdivisions
the province says 90% of Ontarians support the green belt, it’s not true

http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2015/04/17/debating-the-greenbelt

its UN agenda 21

#87 Deplorables Unite on 03.10.17 at 10:13 pm

#80 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 9:54 pm

#77 ShawnG in TO on 03.10.17 at 9:36 pm
> #52 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 7:43 pm
Holly Smokes.

hey Smoky, hows reno going ?
looks like you are richer than you think.
….

One more week. If I find a job I’m staying till spring of 2018. I’ll get 2 million for this shit hole.. If not I got to sell. No choice.

I’m almost out of loot. Forex, what was I thinking is all I’m saying..
..
I thought you owned a million dollar muskoka cottage!

#88 Andrew Woburn on 03.10.17 at 10:13 pm

Go East, young lady.

“No country comes even close to China in self-made female billionaires”

Apparently China has 56 of the world’s 88 self-made female billionaires. See, communism works. But what would Mao say now?

https://qz.com/927357/no-country-comes-even-close-to-china-in-self-made-female-billionaires/

#89 Bottoms_Up on 03.10.17 at 10:16 pm

Crack shack or McMansion has infiltrated the T-dot.

#90 Andrew Woburn on 03.10.17 at 10:20 pm

To quote the late, great Buddy Holly:

“Every day, it’s a little closer, going faster than a roller coaster”

The switch over to electric vehicles, that is.

“Co-creator of lithium-ion technology says he has a new power source with three times the power”

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-tech-desk/co-creator-of-lithium-ion-technology-says-he-has-a-new-power-source-with-three-times-the-power?__lsa=7361-8503

#91 Wes on 03.10.17 at 10:23 pm

Hey Garth have you seen the one with a 9 foot wide lot going for $599?

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17876454/9512-FULLER-Avenue-Toronto-Ontario-M6R2C4-Roncesvalles

#92 WUL on 03.10.17 at 10:25 pm

The purchase of 18 Mitchell (tonight’s featured property) may be astute. I suspect both sides of the semi are now owned by one person. What is the zoning? Rebuild the whole shebang? Consolidate the lots to a fifty footer? A 4 to 6 unit condo? Don’t fall into the trap of thinking there are not very sharp people out there. Pull title a few months from now or watch for notice of a development permit application. He who laughs last….

#93 Entrepreneur on 03.10.17 at 10:29 pm

“As Trump throws gas in the US economy” GT…too bad we didn’t have a leader that would boost our economy. Have to look further into Nikki Ashton of the NDP as she is talking my language of what I heard so far.

“Trudeau and Trump opposing policy and leadership styles” #23 Self Directed…Trump does and say like it is and Trudeau goes on and on, says one thing but mean another to get his way. I like Trump and his fight for the people of that nation. As for Trudeau, his last speech mentions of our rich resources, jobs for the US, border tax, throw in the environment, climate for the reasoning he promoting fossil fuel but what about the fight for Canadian jobs, about us.

#40 wow…I also would like a picture of people that buy these cheap but high price “homes.”

The Chinese government is clamping down on people who take money out of China and on April 1 the fingerprinting exposure. It is working and this is world wide.

#94 freddy finance on 03.10.17 at 10:31 pm

Trojan House on 03.10.17 at 6:32 pm
Well, in 1970 that house would have only cost about $174,000 (bank of Canada inflation calculator).
Are you kidding? That piece of shit would have been lucky to fetch $20000 back in 1970.

#95 Ma & Pa on 03.10.17 at 10:34 pm

74/75 Leo Trolls Toy.
You have been smoking the heavy stuff. Go towards the light.

TREB and the rest of these trolls who call themselves Real Estate Agents are running scared. If the foreign buyers tax will have no affect on the real estate market in Toronto and the surrounding area’s, as has been said many times over by TREB and its minions, then why is it a concern if the tax were implemented?

We all know the answer.

#96 freddy finance on 03.10.17 at 10:35 pm

I can just picture Buffy and Jordan uncorking the champagne to celebrate their ‘winning bid’

#97 Pre-retiree on 03.10.17 at 10:36 pm

Meanwhile in Ottawa, in the neighborhood of Rockcliffe Park no less, $1.2M will get you this:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17822967/30-BLUE-HERON-COURT-Ottawa-Ontario-K1L8J7-Rockcliffe-Park

Not a palace maybe but a heck of a lot better than 18 Mitchell and in a much nicer hood.
Have people completely lost their minds?

#98 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 10:37 pm

The enemy of every soul is bordom. It makes you insane.

I’ve figured out the secrets of the universe. And what now.

I’m so depressed.

#99 Stock Picker on 03.10.17 at 10:43 pm

DELETED

#100 sugarlips on 03.10.17 at 10:48 pm

Thanks 42 for explaining it’s a fire hydrant, I’m not from your hood, thought they had R2D2 in the yard but it could be this chappy BlackBerry..!

Garth: People actually use the term ‘ boffo’?) ;)

#101 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 10:56 pm

When you go all in listening to this crazy shit on the buds.

https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=t84gvCnZBWQ

Fooling yourself you can write, you pathetic narsasistic drunk idiot, James was right.

It feels good at the moment? but man did I fk up huge.

Should have had my head down, respecting diversity and all that pretend love shit. Should not have walked the trade floor crunching on a arogant coffee stir stick in my mouth knowing I’m the best.

It was dental flose for big teeth.
O well. Turn the page…my fault. I blame no one

Looking forward to where the next adventure begins.

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.17 at 10:57 pm

#86 Andrew Woburn on 03.10.17 at 10:13 pm
Go East, young lady.

“No country comes even close to China in self-made female billionaires”

Apparently China has 56 of the world’s 88 self-made female billionaires. See, communism works. But what would Mao say now?

https://qz.com/927357/no-country-comes-even-close-to-china-in-self-made-female-billionaires/
———–
Got this one right.
My wife is Chinese, not a millionaire.
But fricking head strong and determined to succed.
Canadian and American Feminazis don’t stand a chance.

#103 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 11:04 pm

85 Deplorables Unite on 03.10.17 at 10:13 pm
#80 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 9:54 pm

#77 ShawnG in TO on 03.10.17 at 9:36 pm
> #52 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 7:43 pm
Holly Smokes.

hey Smoky, hows reno going ?
looks like you are richer than you think.
….

One more week. If I find a job I’m staying till spring of 2018. I’ll get 2 million for this shit hole.. If not I got to sell. No choice.

I’m almost out of loot. Forex, what was I thinking is all I’m saying..
..
I thought you owned a million dollar muskoka cottage!
…..

I have confesset to being a serial lier on here for years .

What don’t you get.. idiot.

#104 45north on 03.10.17 at 11:07 pm

So, it was listed for an unbelievable $999,000 and sold with multiple offers for $1,175,000.

$1.175 million! Please tell me CMHC doesn’t insure the mortgage?

#105 NOTHING SURPRISES on 03.10.17 at 11:22 pm

Canadian Snowbird inputting from the south.

Remember two words for the future – “Ice-Nine”.

The housing crisis will become a non-entity.

#106 joe's rentals on 03.10.17 at 11:24 pm

news ticker on google finance for TD stock

$7-billion wiped out in one day: Why TD stock took its sharpest drop since th…
The Globe and Mail – 10 hours ago

Why Toronto-Dominion Bank Is the Safest Canadian Bank
The Motley Fool Canada – Mar 5, 2017

Hamilton rental properties for the win

#107 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.10.17 at 11:42 pm

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.17 at 10:57 pm
#86 Andrew Woburn on 03.10.17 at 10:13 pm
Go East, young lady.
=================================
Every Chinese woman I have dealt with in China has a good working knowledge of Excel.

In Canada I cannot say the same anecdotally.

If you look at Hong Kong or China business news you will see a wealth of information on the MSM. Here it is only on specialty channels.
Our people are not economically minded like in China.

In defense of our lifestyle we have religion. Sadly the Chinese have very little of that. Crushed out of existence by Mao.

#108 Andrew t on 03.10.17 at 11:49 pm

Who’d a thunk it?
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/genymoney/millennial-home-buying-could-lead-to-insolvencies/article34173773/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com

#109 Vit on 03.10.17 at 11:49 pm

Looks like we may have 2 more years of higher prices

.http://news.buzzbuzzhome.com/2017/03/toronto-real-estate-headed-2-years.html

interesting read . So why do you think history not going to repeat and we gonna have bust sooner …. I think in 2 years interest rate may run up substantially to heart does who due to refinance and mortgage payments will be 80% of income …. Damn its hard to time this market

#110 fishman on 03.10.17 at 11:52 pm

The Chinese govmnt. clamping down on people getting their money out is on the same level as Reagan’s “trickle down” theory of economic stimulation. No such thing. Money & crackdown’s on money laundering naturally follows the “trickle up” theory.
At the bridgehead, the offshore money may have moved off residential Van west side over 4 million, but,try buying a fishing license or quota, anything with positive cash flow backed by real estate(remembering a good small businessman keeps 3 sets of books: 1/himself 2/CRA 3/to sell) , waterfront, gravel pit,commercial R/E, anything that could be rezoned in future decades, farmland, anything that gives ownership of a primary resource. I own small chunks of some of the above & offshore demand is unquenchable. Us business type locals were horrified a couple years ago with the prices. Anything good has doubled in last few years & right now it looks like the sky is the limit. Now the cap rates are so low hard to see yourself in the game. Tough slugging for a Canadian tax slave. If you have something tangible of quality, don’t sell, unless you can parley that into something better & bigger. Have your move up ready & done & put iron clad subjects on your deal. If your sitting around with cash you may never get back in. To paraphrase Bugs Bunny”get used to it folks”

#111 Victor V on 03.10.17 at 11:58 pm

Would a foreign-buyers tax cool Toronto’s market? Mayor Tory says he’s not sure

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/will-a-foreign-buyers-tax-cool-torontos-sizzling-market-mayor-tory-says-hes-not-sure/article34270908

#112 aa3 on 03.11.17 at 12:02 am

Just keep building houses & condos, and if foreigners want to keep buying them for $1-2 million, sometimes even more.. it provides incredible jobs and opportunities for Canadians.

Its not like Canada is on the verge of running out of land.

#113 april on 03.11.17 at 12:08 am

#84- Thanks for answering. I realize now I didn’t phrase my question very well. Anyway, houses we’re told are in short supply and sellers don’t want to pay an outrageous price for another house but expect to get an outrageous price for their house. Condos I hear are “holding up”? and condo sellers are also asking outrageous prices, but looking on Zolo I see many price reductions, and many have been listed for over 100 days. [Vancouver and Lower Mainland area]

#114 thomas on 03.11.17 at 12:15 am

Come over to Sydney. Classy little gems with potential like that are considered well under priced for only $1.1M

#115 fishman on 03.11.17 at 12:16 am

Remember SM when I said I owned you because I went to a Bukowski poetry reading on Hastings St. in the 70’s. I read everything of his & he was everything & more in person. So snap out of it. Do what Charles did. Read Celine, listen to a Mahler symphony. Buy the wife a big fancy Easter hat for a Sunday at the track. March is the cruellest month.

#116 Double batman on 03.11.17 at 12:20 am

#99 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 10:56 pm
When you go all in listening to this crazy shit on the buds.

https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=t84gvCnZBWQ

Fooling yourself you can write, you pathetic narsasistic drunk idiot, James was right.

It feels good at the moment? but man did I fk up huge.

Should have had my head down, respecting diversity and all that pretend love shit. Should not have walked the trade floor crunching on a arogant coffee stir stick in my mouth knowing I’m the best.

It was dental flose for big teeth.
O well. Turn the page…my fault. I blame no one

Looking forward to where the next adventure begins.
/////
Double batman. Bet it all. You can’t lose! You are never wrong.

#117 willworkforpickles on 03.11.17 at 12:35 am

You can have a rat hole like that one for free in the D….Just register it so the city can start having some tax for it.

#118 jay on 03.11.17 at 1:40 am

Who says crime doesn’t pay. http://bc.ctvnews.ca/5b-in-promises-tallying-up-the-liberals-pre-election-spending-spree-1.3320680

#119 Ronaldo on 03.11.17 at 1:55 am

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.17 at 7:43 pm

@#12 Trojan Man
“Well, in 1970 that house would have only cost about $174,000 ”
********************************************
You might want to check 1970 prices.
Good chance that ugly piece of crap was selling for about 25-30 grand.
————————————————————–
You could have bought a nice rancher in North Vancouver at that time for $30,000. A home up in West Vancouvers British Properties could be had for $50,000. I know cause I bought there in Dec. 1969. I doubt that piece of crap would have cost more than $15,000 back then.

#120 Gulf Breeze on 03.11.17 at 2:00 am

#52

Smoking Man, Holly smokes? Tell her mother. Quick!

#121 paulo on 03.11.17 at 2:01 am

#102 No CHMC does not!!
YOU and ME and all taxpayers do, CHMC just acts in increasingly irresponsible ways by providing banks with insurance backing there obviously questionable mortgage
underwriting at the risk and future detriment of the taxpayer. if banks where made responsible for there mortgages the stupidity and greed in the current real estate market would come to a very quick end. lets face it if you had the taxpayer covering your ass,would you care if you where loaning funds to idiots that cant afford the loan in the first place, as evidenced by the recent stats on debt to income figures ??

#122 paulo on 03.11.17 at 3:00 am

Add On To #109 Comment:
We have a situation where by just about every banking entity and financial oversight group on the planet has clearly identified certain real estate markets in Canada,southern Ontario,and Vancouver and environs, in particular as being in a unsustainable bubble,and subject to significant correction. the danger is that when these markets implode as they will,they will take the whole economy down with them and a few banks.the finger pointing will start in Ernest,and your kids kids will be paying for the fiasco!. what ever happened to the rule of due and proper diligence,by goverment agencies administering public funds and liabilities? the provision of insurance should be subject to identified risk and priced or offered based on same or in some cases declined where there is a identifiable substantial loss risk as is the case here in the above R.E.markets. the point of this post: I Believe that CHMC is not performing due diligence in granting any mortgage insurance in these regions,and placing the Canadian taxpayer at risk for the liability incurred in the case of a major correction as predicted. the lawyers out there can complete this comment ;

#123 Pulp Faction on 03.11.17 at 3:04 am

Hey Garth, let’s hear what you have to say about the little green people at TD ?

#124 Tony on 03.11.17 at 3:38 am

Re: #75 Leo Trollstoy on 03.10.17 at 9:32 pm

15 percent foreigner tax = a 20 percent overnight haircut in residential real estate prices

#125 Tony on 03.11.17 at 3:45 am

Re: #107 Vit on 03.10.17 at 11:49 pm

Clueless author, supply and demand??? Really? Since when does a pure 100 percent ponzi have a supply and demand curve? DUH!!

#126 Dan on 03.11.17 at 3:57 am

Uh oh,…..chinks in the armor!

#127 Mike in Toronto on 03.11.17 at 4:44 am

#11 Foreign Capital

Yep. I’m betting that it will have a huge impact in prime urban centres and select suburbs. Foreign buyers don’t buy Etobicoke or Scarborough, they buy in the core, North York and Markham.

#128 Stock Picker on 03.11.17 at 5:20 am

Et tu Gartholemu? When I wrote copy for liberal pols the truth could at least be manipulated. Now it’s outright denial that gets our snowflakes through day. Problem with that position is that truth will always succeed in biting you in the ass. Forty years of globalist infrastructure blown out of the water in two elections has Liberals on all fours puking in batches. History will prove me right. Stop pretending .

#129 Victor V on 03.11.17 at 7:29 am

Rob Carrick: A foreign-buyers housing tax in Toronto? Bring it on – and fast

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/foreign-buyers-tax-would-help-tame-torontos-housing-market/article34271252

#130 Cto on 03.11.17 at 7:50 am

123 Paulo

CMHC has run amuck!
Its miserable watching the politicians ignoring CMHCs role in what is happening out there and after sending many letteds, not receiving any correspondence back about CMHC. They are terrified to touch CMHC!

#131 Cto on 03.11.17 at 7:52 am

This housing bubble is all we have now!

Why spoil a TEMPORARY good thing!

#132 Animal Spirits on 03.11.17 at 8:01 am

“Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits—a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.” — John Maynard Keynes, 1936

#133 maxx on 03.11.17 at 8:12 am

Good or lousy economy, the one constant about cash is that it is always, always a desirable commodity.

As rates go up, this fact will only be magnified, concurrently with debt loads getting even uglier and more difficult to fight.

Smugness will morph into supplication.

#134 maxx on 03.11.17 at 8:15 am

#2 Nonplused on 03.10.17 at 6:20 pm

“Well, I guess $1,175,000 isn’t what it used to be.”

Sure it is. It’s just been dwarfed by out-sized stupidity and gullibility.

#135 Victor V on 03.11.17 at 8:58 am

Markham residents balk at paying $30K each to fix Highway 407 fence

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/markham-residents-balk-at-paying-30k-each-to-fix-highway-407-fence-1.4018764

#136 Felix on 03.11.17 at 9:12 am

The dog in this picture looks far more intelligent than most dogs that have appeared on this blog.

Interesting.

#137 toronto1 on 03.11.17 at 9:18 am

The impact wont be all the huge with a HAM tax, but it will cool the ridiculous offers.

The data that we are missing is the spread between the winning bid and second place on these crazy deals we read and hear about.

if a house lists at 800K and received 11 offers ,if 10 are in the 775-825 range and 1 offer is for 999K then of course the house sells for 999k. BUT if the bully offers consist mainly of HAM money then the impact will be huge as locals see the value as 775-825 but that 999K offer is what grabs the headlines and makes the 20% YoY news. And that becomes the new bottom of that area.

In reality only a really small amount of homes sales in an area (C1, W6 etc..) can drive the price up tof homes to nose bleed levels. I believe that is what is happening now.

Offers on homes are not registered and made public so no one really knows the median of those offers. So, yes even if foreign money is 5% of the market, if it is the top 5% and always the winning bid, it will drive the entire market.

Everyone is worried about supply but shouldn’t be., you will see a lot of inventory coming online in the next few months as the people sitting on the sidelines start to take their gains (in my small circle of friends, i know 2 that are going to be listing their homes in the next 3-6 weeks)

sentiment on the street is starting to change, i have never heard as much talk about “housing bubbles” from everyone i know then i have now– the fear of not getting in is starting to fade and the fear of losing money in RE is starting to gain traction— watch out when that tilts– the folks on sidelines will start to list en mass to make their gains and at the same time the “herd” will go on strike

#138 Terrence on 03.11.17 at 9:39 am

The MARKET is always RIGHT no matter how outrageously stupid you think it is! Your analysis of the R.E Mrkt thus far has been completly WRONG, although you are right on what is to come eventually. Place & Time is everything in the Market, the Trend is ALWAYS YOUR FRIEND, so why go against the trend Garth? The Loonie continues to get smashed lower, which means housing $ will keep rising higher, its inflation protection for people, why keep that money in a pathetic bank account?KEEP IT IN A HOUSE IN 1 FORM OR ANOTHER

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.17 at 10:00 am

@#120 Ronaldo
“I doubt that piece of crap would have cost more than $15,000 back then.”
********************************************
True but then again we are talking Toronto…The center of the Universe.

I had a friend who bought a house in East Vancouver in 1970. When he put it up for sale a few years back for 1.25 the 30 something realtor asked him “What did you originally pay for this?”
“seventeen”
“Seventy Thousand? Thats unreal!”
“No. Seventeen thousand…..”
The kid was shocked.

#140 Shut down CMHC on 03.11.17 at 10:13 am

Cto on 03.11.17 at 7:50 am
123 Paulo

CMHC has run amuck!
Its miserable watching the politicians ignoring CMHCs role in what is happening out there and after sending many letteds, not receiving any correspondence back about CMHC. They are terrified to touch CMHC!

I keep sending emails myself will continue to keep emailing them. Always adding and fixing it up and then an email they get. This housing bubble is beyond control and keeps destroying the real economy as businesses keep shutting down all over the GTA.

#141 Dr. Talc on 03.11.17 at 10:26 am

tax?
HST on new homes
do you know anyone who’s paid it?
of course not, no one does
why?
the buyers don’t have the money
the builders pay it
buyers forfeit any rebates
you see, the goverment is full of millionaires
they say ‘I can tax that’
that’s the extent of their human potential

#142 Davedorf on 03.11.17 at 10:53 am

If BOC doesn’t raise interest rates with FED, would it not become necessary to introduce a foreign buyer’s tax then? Would our frothy real estate not have increased attraction to foreigners if they’re purchasing in dollarettes?

#143 KYC on 03.11.17 at 10:53 am

This is for Toronto house hunters to compare a semi at 18 Mitchell Avenue,Toronto that is already sold to the list of decent detached house at around the price range upto $1.3 m. in the southeast that is 30 minutes car ride to downtown Toronto or 1 hr +- by TTC bus+subway.
As of 10th March 2017.
$1,288,888 realtor ca E3726500
$1,250,000 realtor ca E3724269
$1,200,000 realtor ca E3725561
$1,199,000 realtor ca E3700599
$1,189,000 realtor ca E3704493
$999,900 realtor ca E3717537
$979,000 realtor ca E3725694
$975,000 realtor ca E3685035
No need to overbid . Bid up to the ask price . Allow some cash for you to renovate some areas to your own taste.
Happy house hunting.

#144 Damifino on 03.11.17 at 11:00 am

#135 maxx

Good or lousy economy, the one constant about cash is that it is always, always a desirable commodity.
—————————————

Not in Germany in the early 1920’s.

“By November 1923, the US dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 German marks.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

#145 CharlieDontSurf on 03.11.17 at 11:03 am

Vancouver Law Courts, March 6-9 2017

Supreme Bankruptcy – 23 cases

Supreme Foreclosure – 20 cases

https://justice.gov.bc.ca/cso/newCaseReport.do;jsessionid=2280a738e33f8f0a54b78d7668e92ec05f7e96ad17e5e8e8a2da614ff81181d6.e3eKb3yKaxyOe34Tch8Raxj0

#146 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 03.11.17 at 11:06 am

Like I tell my clients, “I don’t set the price and you don’t set the price. Ultimately it’s the market that sets the price”.

It is what it is. You may not like it. I certainly don’t like it, but it is what it is. Might change tomorrow. You might be dead tomorrow.

Foreign Buyer Tax? If you’re going to mess with the Invisible Hand… prepare to be Bitch Slapped.

#147 Damifino on 03.11.17 at 11:12 am

#112 Joe2.0

To be honest i think everyone who owns a house loves the concept of foreigners upping housing prices…
—————————————–

That is, until they’re in the market to buy another one.

#148 Mishuko on 03.11.17 at 11:13 am

Smokie book was a light fun read with hidden messages not many people could infer.

Hope to meet you at the water hole called belfountain

#149 D-the-tree on 03.11.17 at 11:21 am

Garth, I couldn’t agree with you more on the state of Queen West. As a resident, I’ve watched the quality and cost of everything moving in opposite directions for years. They’ll be replacing my favorite grocery store with a condo development this summer. One more blow.

#150 Barb on 03.11.17 at 11:37 am

…becoming ill just thinking that someone used to rent that Mitchell place. Dirt floor basement? A solid foundation. Gawd!

With 2017 being the year of the Fire Rooster–wherein it’s not auspicious to purchase ANY property, even with an 8 in the address–I doubt it was sold to anyone of Chinese descent.

The foreign buyers’ tax?
Canada’s new Combines Act…

#151 TimL on 03.11.17 at 11:57 am

I love that the Realtor.ca IT guys are either unable or unwilling to fix the software glitch that makes every word upper case. Makes every realtor look illiterate.

#152 Momo on 03.11.17 at 12:00 pm

The attraction of Canada (Toronto as the poster child) in an increasingly unstable world is continually fueling the bubble, plain and simple. Thats the main reason why some think this bubble is not the same as all of the bubbles preceding, and may not be a bubble at all – but the new normal

#153 Bottoms_Up on 03.11.17 at 1:15 pm

#95 Pre-retiree on 03.10.17 at 10:36 pm
———————–
And check the demographics. $500k average family income.

#154 x on 03.11.17 at 1:18 pm

I would prefer to welcome foreign money here. Not in favor of the foreign tax…although politically I get that is the easy thing to do, blame the foreigners, well, at least blame someone else.

So if there is a discrepancy between buyers (demand) and listings (availablility), and if there is only 5% foreign buyers, couldn’t the gov’t implement something else to remove a certain percentage of buyers from the market…

I personally would like to see 10% downpayments return, however that would remove far more than 5% of potential buyers.

#155 Em on 03.11.17 at 1:22 pm

Lmao – “forgetting this is Siamesed to another piece of crap”… :D :D :D

#156 Leo Trollstoy on 03.11.17 at 1:31 pm

#125 Tony on 03.11.17 at 3:38 am

15 percent foreigner tax = a 20 percent overnight haircut in residential real estate prices

Vancouver disagrees

#157 Fed-up on 03.11.17 at 1:33 pm

#95 Pre-retiree on 03.10.17 at 10:36 pm

Still an absolute ripoff. The prices in Toronto and Vancouver have warped prices everywhere. If prices in Toronto and Vancouver and other major cities had any semblance of sanity, that house wouldn’t sell for any more than $700,000.

We’re all suffering from “compared to Toronto” syndrome.

#158 Why a foreign buyer tax is wrong (Tudval) on 03.11.17 at 1:40 pm

Let’s not focus on principles and just think of the interest of a few home buyers that want less competition for the home they are looking to purchase and care about nothing else. Will they get what they want?

1. Foreign investors are buying mostly at higher end (>$2mil) and it was clearly seen in Vancouver that while sales of those properties declined after introducing the tax, the low end of the market was not affected and prices even kept going up.

In fact, a foreign buyer might consider a lower priced property and so affordability in the segment that is most politically sensitive would suffer even more.

So in the end, all this activism results in some revenue going to the government, instead of going to the seller, and buyers get nothing out of it. Unless they are looking at buying >$3 mil. property. Are we supposed to care about them?

2. It’s quite clear that some of these investors benefit the economy because they are either conducting some business here or plan to. It would be very difficult, what BC is trying, to finesse the regulations so that you only target that narrow segment that is said to be just “parking money” into the safe-haven Dominion of Canada. Why ‘parking money’ is wrong, beats me.

But a tax on unoccupied homes could be implemented in a smart way (not what BC is doing), because the argument can be made that the province is deprived from revenue is the property does not generate taxable income.

The latest TREB-gathered data shows most foreign buyers are not purchasing homes priced over the median range. — Garth

#159 saint francis on 03.11.17 at 1:43 pm

lots of folks keep saying “the coming correction threatens the broader economy…” and i get the broad strokes of that — but what are some specific impacts? how would a significant correction (or melt) actually affect the everyday lives of most Canadians?

I can guess, but would appreciate some more knowledgeable perspective. Thanks for everything Garth!

#160 Smoking Man on 03.11.17 at 1:48 pm

#150 Mishuko on 03.11.17 at 11:13 am
Smokie book was a light fun read with hidden messages not many people could infer.

Hope to meet you at the water hole called belfountain.

…..

Looking forward to it

#161 Herb on 03.11.17 at 2:00 pm

The North American socialism vs. capitalism dichotomy in a nutshell, as exemplified in the Obamacare/Trumpcare problem.

If it’s government screwing you, like Obama did, that’s socialism. If it’s a corporation screwing you, and profiting in the process, well, that’s the American way. Freedom.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/trumpcare-lose-coverage-1.4019838

#162 mathman on 03.11.17 at 2:34 pm

When prices are going up, people can continue to re-finance their mortgages, unlock more equity and continue to consume. They are living on borrowed time and don’t kid yourself how many people are in this situation.

When the tide turns, no more re-fi= no more using the house as an ATM. Consumption stops immediately, multiply this across hundreds of thousands of households and the economy grinds to a screeching halt followed by a painful recession.

Once the recession hits, people loose their jobs. First to go is the cottage or 2nd property – then the car – the line of credit and credit card (you need some form of cash to live on) and then finally kicking and screaming they loose the house or are completely immobilized because they can’t sell something that has a mortgage larger than the current market value.

sound familiar?

Look south – it happened only 8 short years ago and decimated the global economy.

There is a reason a 1% exists, the rest are sheep.

Math

#163 mathman on 03.11.17 at 2:39 pm

The real sad part is, the bank of mom and dad in many cases are borrowing against their own property to give their entitled brats who still have their behinds wiped by their parents oodles of money to buy their homes.

These parents may find themselves underwater, so it creates a potential double whammy.

I find it inherently pathetic that people will knowingly impact their parents nest egg and retirement lifestyle because they feel they deserve a house they cannot afford.

I say this because almost every open house i have been to in the west end of the “6” has been full of 30 year old couples and their parents. not empirical, but anctedoctal and I’m sure my fellow blog dogs can concur this is what they see as well.

#164 Tudval on 03.11.17 at 2:55 pm

The latest TREB-gathered data shows most foreign buyers are not purchasing homes priced over the median range. — Garth

That may be, but my (admittedly anecdotal) “evidence” leads me to believe that the number of underutilized housing at the higher end is more significant than the lower end. Specifucally, there is talk in the media that foreign investors are purchasing lots of 5-10 condos to rent out (nothing wrong with it) while a walk around neighborhoods can reveal that some recently purchased properties are sitting empty. It may not be worth the effort (I for one don’t see that many), but in such cases I would agree that unless the owner is waiting for permits to re-build, an additional tax may be warranted.
Taxation of underutilized land is a valid approach.

#165 maxx on 03.11.17 at 3:46 pm

#146 Damifino on 03.11.17 at 11:00 am

#135 maxx

Good or lousy economy, the one constant about cash is that it is always, always a desirable commodity.
—————————————

“Not in Germany in the early 1920’s.

“By November 1923, the US dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 German marks.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

Not going to happen. Far more people with money now. Far more people watching the economy and far more tools to backstop that from happening.

#166 t-bag on 03.11.17 at 4:07 pm

I agree with almost everything Garth posts here. He is right. However in order to please my wife I have owned property (heavily leveraged) for the last 10 years. It has made me 1.3 million tax free dollars (I’m renting now).

Just shows you, its possible to play a hand of poker correctly given the balance of probabilities and still lose. Thank God, by blind luck I stayed in the housing market. I’m rich!

#167 t-bag on 03.11.17 at 4:09 pm

Surely the irony of this blog is that the person in GTA that sells their house today having flipped for 20 years is the greaterwise?

#168 maxx on 03.11.17 at 4:17 pm

#19 TRUMP on 03.10.17 at 6:42 pm

“How did this great country of Canada with so many smart, polite, and intelligent breed of human beings on the planet turn into a nation of SUCKERS!!!! ?”

The yellow brick road started off with central banks led by a total bozo (he knows who he is), followed by the bank of name your colour, accompanied by the bank of mom and dad, then shadow finance, all of which were, and still are cheered on by CMHC and every level of government raking in all of that yummy FIRE-generated tax. Oh, and let’s not leave out realtards and their lobbyists.

The sucker factor was lying in wait, not far below the surface and oh what a banquet that’s produced.

RE is now the opiate of Canuckleheads. After buying a total dump like the one featured, followed by a few decades of cooling off on the debt repayment carousel, many won’t be so polite any more.

But it does make an OK dog house I suppose.

#169 Eurovision on 03.11.17 at 5:15 pm

It’s the eclipse phase, don’t miss it, you will be sorry.Won’t happen again for a very long time..

#170 Em on 03.11.17 at 7:13 pm

BTW, house number 15 on that street, just east of this one, has an even skinnier lot, and its also siamesed to another house, and nearly just an inch away from the other, and its a modern contemporary ‘moco’ rebuild. So no doubt, this one has the same future, regardless of the ‘siamesed’ state its in, lol. I’m sure they’ll find a way.

#171 Ronaldo on 03.11.17 at 7:22 pm

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.17 at 10:00 am

@#120 Ronaldo
“I doubt that piece of crap would have cost more than $15,000 back then.”
********************************************
True but then again we are talking Toronto…The center of the Universe.

I had a friend who bought a house in East Vancouver in 1970. When he put it up for sale a few years back for 1.25 the 30 something realtor asked him “What did you originally pay for this?”
“seventeen”
“Seventy Thousand? Thats unreal!”
“No. Seventeen thousand…..”
The kid was shocked.
————————————————————-

I purchased the adjoining unit to this one in Dec. 69 for $20,800…..

http://bonniemclean.ca/mylistings.html/details-36949694 Listed for $495,000, Sold Jan. 26/14 for $482,000.

Assessed at $569,000 July 1/15
Assessed at $706,000 July 1/16

This represents a 34 fold increase in value in 46 years.
My salary (average) at the time was $8000/yr so that was 2.6 times my salary. It took 33% of my salary to cover PIT and strata fee with 15% downpayment ant 9 1/2% interest rate.

Same salary today would be around $60,000 so the ratio would be 11.7 times salary. Same downpayment and the cost to own this would be 60% of equivalent salary at 2.5% interest rate.

The dollar just doesn’t go very far today does it? You can imagine what will happen when interest rates get back to close to normal at say 5% but we’ve been saying that for the past 8 years now.

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOFNXVA==

#172 Tudval on 03.12.17 at 10:22 am

#174 Ronaldo So you bought your house on one income, while today most families earn two incomes. So it would come to the same share of income, 30-something %. Why do you think 5% interest is more normal than 2.5?