Smoke

“See the attached,” said Uri, the realtor, “Self explanatory… And some people still think it’s not a bubble.”

So here’s the deal – an ugly little half-a-bungalow three-bedroom semi on a 30-foot lot way up north of Toronto where the elk cavort (Newmarket). It was listed for $469,000 less than a year ago – April of 2016 – and sold in a flurry two days later for $512,000. Meh. Above asking, but not worthy of film at 6.

The same place, in the same condition, was listed again a week ago for $569,000. It sold on offer day this past Monday amid another flurry, for $745,000. That, a disgusted Uri notes, was a 46% appreciation in market value in ten months, or an annualized 55%. By way of contrast, inflation is now 2.1%. Incomes are growing 1.6%. And a high-interest savings account at RBC pays 0.5%.

The buyers? In that price range, of course, first-timers – desperate to get into a house, any house, before they’re ‘priced out forever’. In the process of paying a bloated premium in a bidding war for a crappy little half-house, they help ensure lots more young couples are, indeed, priced out. At least for a while.

Speculation, greed, fear. The three Amigos of the Northern Bubble have been riding hard for the last few months, taking us on a new journey. Highest prices ever. Most debt in history. Vast leverage. Reckless buyers. Rapacious sellers. Shrinking supply and surging demand. Risk on. It’s a classic property bubble. Despite all the justification the bulls cough up, the outcome will be the same.

Or perhaps slightly worse. We’ll see.

Things became a little darker this week for two reasons. The price of our biggest export tumbled. Oil is now just $49 a barrel, down 10% in recent days. Ouch. Thanks to Trump, re-energized US shale producers are churning out production, and the spectre of higher interest rates has pumped the American dollar, clobbering commodities and the loonie (now 74 cents). None of that – oil, dollar, rates – is good. Even in Newmarket.

Then we have the political dunces. Ontario’s about to bring in a Chinese dudes tax of its own – a version of the one that dropped sales in Vancouver by 70% in many hoods, and has cratered the top end of the market. This pathetic blog told you some months ago it was being actively considered and now, apparently, it’ll happen. While the number of foreign buyers is by all accounts modest (realtors peg it is 4.9% of sales), any more bureaucratic diddling with an already-stressed market could have big results. It sure did in Van.

Finance Minister Charles Sousa says since house lust has invaded the province, infecting locals’ brains and turning our moisters into mortgaged morons, that he must act. “I am now concerned with the degree of fast appreciation in the short term and what that will do over the long term” he said Thursday.

He has support for this, not only on Toronto city council, but also on Bay Street. BeeMo’s economist Doug Porter dropped this warning last week: “If policy makers leave this market to its own devices, there is a real risk that a still-manageable bubble is pumped by rampant speculation into something much more dangerous.” And a couple of bank CEOs have speculated that since the YVR tax hit, more money was pushed into the GTA, helping fuel a disastrous 28% year/year price romp there.

But would the tax just apply to 416, the cradle of modern civilization? Or the entire Burlington-to-Oshawa, six-million-strong GTA? Or would that just shove prices higher in Guelph, St. Catharines, Brantford, Barrie and Peterbrough? Would it be a province-wide hit, making London, Ottawa and Windsor suffer for the hormonal excess of the flatlanders?

No idea. But it’s reasonable to assume that falling oil, rising interest rates, higher living costs (thanks to the dollar) and a draconian new tax will certainly drop-kick a market as abnormal as Justin Bieber.

Meanwhile, everyone’s worried about us. This week the Bank for International Settlements (sort of like the Bank of Canada’s parent) said we are ‘vulnerable to a crisis’ because of excessive credit levels, house prices and the potential for higher interest rates. Our ratio of debt to the size of the economy is dangerous, while real estate values have deviated wildly from a sustainable long-term trend. More than anything, added the BIS, it could be swelling interest rates that bring Canada down and double payments.

Well, tonight there are excited new owners of 21 Hillview Drive in Newmarket, probably texting their little hearts out, sending selfies from in front of the SOLD sign on the speck of a lawn and spreading the word about how awesome smart they were to trade renter freedom for owner obligation.

This will be interesting.

209 comments ↓

#1 Ginny Restholm on 03.09.17 at 6:21 pm

Sure the profit was 55%, but after fees and taxes, how much profit was left?

#2 pathcontrolmonk on 03.09.17 at 6:25 pm

Meanwhile the propaganda about how great Canada is gets more pathetic, The American Dream has moved to Canada”. Barf.

http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/the-american-dream-moved-to-canada/

#3 crdt on 03.09.17 at 6:27 pm

Realestate is a religion here. Anything that takes away from an individual’s ability to maintain their world view, or consider anything that is contradictory is unwelcome to say the least. The market was built on this, raw fear and greed in action. It was a very big and grand party and people loath to leave….

#4 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.09.17 at 6:29 pm

It sold on offer day this past Monday amid another flurry, for $745,000.

Bwahahahaha! WTF??? LOL!

Ontario’s about to bring in a Chinese dudes tax of its own – a version of the one that dropped sales in Vancouver by 70% in many hoods, and has cratered the top end of the market. This pathetic blog told you some months ago it was being actively considered and now, apparently, it’ll happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb2zIR2rvRQ

#5 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 03.09.17 at 6:30 pm

#75 Snowboid from 3.8.2017 yesterdays post
#79 Paulo
————————————————-
RE: projection for CAD. I have the opposite problem. House closing in BC in 6 days.

http://chamberlainpropertygroup.ca/real-estate-listings?view=property&layout=&id=493

We’re currently located in US. (not the owners, but invested in the project) No idea as it stands if we move back to Canada in future. For now another year here, barring any of the possible foreseen and unforeseen disasters out there. What would you (or any other dogs here) do if you were us?

1. Keep the $ in CAD. (we have no RRSPs, no TFSA’s)

2. Wire to states asap to avoid an even lower loonie in a year or so. Take the exchange hit and possibly get into the markets in the next year, depending ….

There was some talk here of speculation of peso being at parity with USD under Trump and whether or not this could be possible with the loonie. Does he even have any say in currency valuations ultimately? Was the speculation due to possible changes with NAFTA or? Thoughts from any of you wiser and older ones?

Calling Seattlelight- I recall you discussing cross border finance stuff at some point. Any financial advisor you can recommend?

#6 X on 03.09.17 at 6:33 pm

10% downpayments would help cool the market and help protect the unknowing sheep by giving them a little more skin in the game…..

No responsibility….blame the foreigners, 1%, ISIS…anybody but the ones responsible.

Intro the foreigners tax as rates are about to raise again, listings have dried up, and buyers are at peak insanity……great combo to go over the cliff.

#7 TheSpangler on 03.09.17 at 6:34 pm

$745k to live in Newmarket, and close to the dog patch, that’s disgusting.

For the record I am from Newmarket, it sucks.

#8 David W2 on 03.09.17 at 6:34 pm

So Garth, when does this story come to an end with a crash/correction?

#9 Paul on 03.09.17 at 6:35 pm

The Government is back talking an off shore buyers tax.
But hoping the talk doesn’t give an up move on activity.
LAUGH MY AZZ OFF What a bunch of idiots!!

#10 Doug t on 03.09.17 at 6:37 pm

There is an underlying reason to all this – people are completely freaked out by the massive volatiles the world is experiencing – hence the desire to buy something that gives them a sense of security and a feeling of control – Consumerism took over religion in the last several decades as a means of filling the void the church once filled – the ultimate consumer purchase to most is a “nest” for their family – fits the bill by both providing a sanctuary from the rest of the world and satisfying the inner desire to make a massive purchase – it’s like a religious orgasm upon signing the mortgage. The human psyche is highly influenced by fear – fear that they are missing out, fear of not belonging, fear of everything the news throws at them every single day – it seeks comfort from all of this and psyche gets what the psyche wants.

#11 GFC v2.0 on 03.09.17 at 6:39 pm

“….Mortgage Professionals Canada, which represents more than 11,000 brokers, urged lawmakers to rethink rule changes introduced last October aimed at consumers who may be taking on too much debt to buy homes……”

You can’t make this stuff up.

#12 Smoking Man on 03.09.17 at 6:39 pm

Tax, hope he does it and lose sll the new canadians waiting for citizenship, the newly landed who bought will get hit with 15% instantly turning a lib vote to blue.

Won’t happen. Libs need those votes badly.

I hate the fact that I need sell soon, no job, and bad bets this year. Long Branch bungees 2 million on two years. The demand is insane. Zero Supply.

#13 Mike in Calgary on 03.09.17 at 6:43 pm

Here’s what $21 million can get in Vancouver:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17774580/3241-POINT-GREY-ROAD-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V6K1B3

Here’s what the equivalent amount can buy in France:

https://www.prestigeproperty.co.uk/15-bed-french-chateau-the-loire-sarthe-pays-de-la-loire-france-186255

I really don’t understand any of this any more.

#14 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 03.09.17 at 6:44 pm

‘A fool and his money are soon parted’

#15 TorontoBull on 03.09.17 at 6:45 pm

I am not so sure if there is support for the tax on city council. They don’t want to kill the golden goose as toronto budget is over reliant on the land transfer tax

#16 Bruce Hard on 03.09.17 at 6:45 pm

This thing is toast – it feels like tall glass of water sitting on the edge of a table , maybe a foreign tax will just push it over. Possible perfect storm scenario, dollar down, oil down, trump, rates moving up, foreign tax etc etc , its time for people to use their brain this has gone so far beyond logic , in my opinion it did long ago. If you don’t have some sort of nostalgic need…sell your homes and take your profits people!

#17 Andrew Woburn on 03.09.17 at 6:47 pm

Ain’t that cute! Little Flippy’s first day at work.

Would you like a side of pogey with that?

“Burger-flipping robot replaces humans on first day at work”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/03/09/genius-burger-flipping-robot-replaces-humans-first-day-work/

#18 Smoking Man on 03.09.17 at 6:47 pm

Smoke?

The heads of environmental phycopaths are exploding.

Preit,Trump’s new head of EPA says man made climate change, it’s all bull shit. Ahhhhh he’s so right..

The lefty loons are going to go bat shit crazy now.. popcorn and beer, what amazing entertainment we are about to witness.

I love it.

Dr Deplorable Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#19 M on 03.09.17 at 6:48 pm

““If policy makers leave this market to its own devices, there is a real risk that a still-manageable bubble is pumped by rampant speculation into something much more dangerous.”

..what can be worse than ONE BIG SMOKING WHOLE IN THE GROUND ?
TWO big smoking holes in the ground ?

..we are talking long term housing devaluation 60 to 80% for both Van and Tor. Remember the grace year 1989. When debt was a simple joke compared with its 2017 lil’ bro.
Keep up the spirits and make sure the prop is well hidden :)

..anyone cared to calculate a put for BMOs ZRE at 5$ or lower ? Just sayin’

#20 acdel on 03.09.17 at 6:49 pm

Things became a little darker this week for two reasons. The price of our biggest export tumbled. Oil is now just $49 a barrel, down 10% in recent days. Ouch. Thanks to Trump, re-energized US shale producers are churning out production.
—————————————————-

What is disappointing about all of this is what we can be if we actually worked as a country such as the U.S. and others!

Pipelines to each coasts would give us access to world markets; pay for our social programs and way of living and prepare us for the future; but “NO” Canadian Libs and Dems are too ignorant, ok, maybe not most of them, but the special interest groups are killing us, and we have a leader of this country who is the most peculiar, lost in his own ego, like the previous P.M. but this one is abnormal, naive, and just off, he seems like a nice person but something is just not right. I wish someone in his parliament would stand up and say something for the benefit of all Canadian’s; otherwise, good-bye future!

#21 mark on 03.09.17 at 6:51 pm

I don’t know where the US production increases have come from this quarter, but the last quarter of 2016 the overwhelming majority came from the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. Now it may have changed, but the big shale turn around was all media hot air. Apart from the Permian, the other basins are doing the red queen – drilling stay in the same spot. It’s all in the data.

#22 Lulu on 03.09.17 at 6:52 pm

This is happening all over the GTA and the Golden Horseshoes area for a couple of years now, couple with RE agent and flippers, small developer, they all contributed to this frenzy, so this is not new, as of now, it even spread to the hot condo market, especially the hard loft sector which is highly sought after right now and loaded individual will bought them up, let them sit a few months and put it back on the market for a quick and deep profit. Like you said, we all know the ultimate outcome, just a matter of when.

#23 Self Directed on 03.09.17 at 6:54 pm

#155 Euro Observer on 03.09.17 at 3:41 pm
“GTA is a giant labour camp”
…………………
Smartest articulation I’ve heard yet. (not just Garth). But I’d even lump all of Canada in the same category.

Yes, we (Canada) have similar freedoms like the US, but make no mistake, the middle class in Canada is HUGE!

This over inflated housing market is resting on the backs of every single Canadian, most of which are middle class debt slaves.

Toronto’s bubble is so big that when it bursts, it will make national headlines thus negatively changing the RE sentiment from coast to coast.

It will be the first domino to drop, and will take down every other over-rated domino. Vancouver hasn’t seen nothing yet. Same batch of deplorables, different province… yes, they too will go down with it.

The smart speculators and foreign investors will be FIFO.

And, with Trudeau and Trump’s opposing policy and leadership styles, it could start sooner than Garth thinks!

Get ready. March 15th could be the beginning of the end.

#24 Andrew Woburn on 03.09.17 at 6:54 pm

Something Garth will like even less than gold.

A Bitcoin ETF.

No, really!!

“Bitcoin May Go Boom: A Guide to This Week’s Big SEC Decision”

http://fortune.com/2017/03/09/bitcoin-sec-etf/

#25 Tim Vandergrift on 03.09.17 at 6:54 pm

Had a conversation with a colleague just yesterday. She’s saved her pennies and leveraged herself to the hilt and is going to cash in all of her RRSP’s and take the hit so she can buy property–in Vancouver.

I tried to explain the upcoming Realageddon coming up, with interest rates, waning foreign interest and decreasing commodity prices as the Canadian economy shrinks, but she was having none of it: she must buy, and she must buy now, ‘Before it’s too late’.

I was feeling prophetic (and mean). I told her I’d remind her of this conversation in about ten years, and I’d spring for a can of cat food for her, the expensive kind, because that’s the kind of generous guy I am.

#26 cto on 03.09.17 at 6:54 pm

Garth
the foreign buyers tax should apply to all of Ontario. After all, it is the provincial government.
Most of Ontario doesn’t really need to worry much about its affect anyway. To most of these people, outside the GTA, is just not in the cards.

#27 Moses and Bella on 03.09.17 at 6:59 pm

What a great deal. Real estate agent told them. More honesty in used car sales.

#28 Lee on 03.09.17 at 7:00 pm

Ace,

I’m still waiting for your authority for the proposition that 400,000 people are expected to move to the GTA this year.

#29 Thomas on 03.09.17 at 7:01 pm

Quite simple: ban foreign ownership and crack down on money laundering if you want to make housing affordable for tax paying Canadians. If you subscribe to unbridled greed and stupidity, keep selling to the highest bidder and keep encouraging speculation at the expense of creating community.

#30 Guy in Calgary on 03.09.17 at 7:04 pm

I am legitimately curious how these people, presumably young, are qualifying for 500k mortgages over in Burlington Oakville and everywhere else in the GTA. I do not understand how the TDS/GDS stays reasonable and within the lending guidelines of the big 5 especially given the recent stress test. It is not feasible that everyone that is buying has the $140k to put down to qualify at a lower rate. If real estate does correct and parents have borrowed against their homes to get their kids in one of their own, the damage could certainly be magnified.

It cannot be that every single couple that is purchasing a home in the GTA is pulling in $200k plus so how are these homes trading hands ESPECIALLY when we read that average household income is around $70k. These numbers add up as well as Sean Cooper’s numbers.

I am actually curious not sure if anyone can provide insight?

#31 TraderX on 03.09.17 at 7:06 pm

Real easy to fix…. TELL CMHC TO INCREASE DOWNPAYMENTS TO 20%, AND ONLY BACK FIRST TIME HOME BUYERS.

#32 turn of the tide on 03.09.17 at 7:08 pm

Humor me for a minute.

I know it will *never happen, but wouldn’t it be fun too see what would happen if this foreign buyer tax was applied to the entire country temporarily, say a couple of years?

A man can dream.

We’re renting in BC interior, saving and investing like maniacs.

#33 Londoner on 03.09.17 at 7:12 pm

I know that very few of you are interested in the UK budget released yesterday, but here’s something for you. I’ve mentioned the UK ISA before, which is our equivalent of the TFSA. However, unlike the TFSA, the unused contribution room can’t be taken forward. So if you don’t use your allowance this year you lose it altogether (I max mine every year). The annual contribution limit for the year ending April 5th, 2017 (don’t ask why April) is £15k ($25k CAD). Starting April 6th, the contribution limit will jump to £20k ($33k CAD). Yup, per year! In just under a month I get to add another £20k into an account on which the income and gains will never be taxed. Maybe someone should write a letter to Mr. Morneau. Let the fools have their houses and up the TFSA limit to $33k/yr. That should put a stop to the real estate nonsense.

In other news, you see what happened to oil today? That’s why the BoC is going to move lower.

#34 Sir James on 03.09.17 at 7:19 pm

As long as banksters are allowed to print money like toilet paper, this will continue.

#35 Ray Skunk on 03.09.17 at 7:22 pm

Next announcement from our 1.1 billion-dollar-man Chuck… the creation of yet another Gov agency to administer this tax. Saad Rafi to head it up on $600k/yr and hire a small army of Liberal voters to make good the idiocy.

#36 Ret on 03.09.17 at 7:23 pm

I checked how long it will take a newcomer to get their first Permanent Resident card. See the government site linked below.

45 days. That should really slow down foreign buyers. If their 18+ year old children choose to get PR cards, they can all buy houses too.

There are no real obstacles to foreign purchases of real estate in Canada, so why do we pretend that there are?

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/information/times/index.asp

Then they are Canadians, like you, with equal rights. — Garth

#37 VanMan on 03.09.17 at 7:24 pm

Real Estate is beyond a cult… there is no definition for the madness that has swept across Canada in recent years. There are so many factors contributing to the insane price increases, but I think the biggest one of all is the lack of basic fundamental knowledge in economics 101.

Yes, greed, HAM, fear, interest rates, Mom, BIL, media, and too many other factors to mention have fueled this speculative disaster, however at the foundation is a pure lack of basic education and understanding by Canadians.

The fact that fear of everything else has driven people to have no fear of debt is an absurd piece of irony. Young people are trading debt for the only thing that really matters – their time (but they have yet to realize that).

#38 Smoking Man on 03.09.17 at 7:29 pm

Garth why don’t you have a shin dig at the general store this summer. A meet up for all the dogs.

Everyone will win. I’ll bring up 3 signed books for what ever fans I have left. The lefy loons will get to punch me in the face.

And you will sell a shit load of ice cream.

Everyone wins..

Weekend before may 24 I’m thinking.

#39 Dave on 03.09.17 at 7:36 pm

Good luck dumping your speculative purchases. China’s outflows are inflows now. How long are locals going to keep buying to sell to non-existent foreign buyers now?

https://betterdwelling.com/chinas-capital-outflows-just-reversed-bad-news-for-global-real-estate/

#40 Sean on 03.09.17 at 7:40 pm

@#29 Thomas on 03.09.17 at 7:01 pm

“Quite simple: ban foreign ownership and crack down on money laundering if you want to make housing affordable ”

=====

Foreign buyers are in short supply now. Don’t let the Globe and Mail’s “foreign buyers are in Toronto” but no numbers get you riled up. Money is actually going back INTO China right now.

https://betterdwelling.com/chinas-capital-outflows-just-reversed-bad-news-for-global-real-estate/

#41 MouldyinYVR on 03.09.17 at 7:41 pm

Well you guys get to experience what we’ve been living through for the past decade or so in YVR.
Garth, thanks for trying to keep us all in touch with reality. Don’t know how you stand to do this day after day, but here’s to ya.

#42 AJ on 03.09.17 at 7:44 pm

Smoking Man- and other climate change deniers, with respect, you’re dead wrong. Do you know how many cars are on this planet? How many cows farting? For how long now? It’s irrefutable. And it’s also dangerous that people are allowed to deny it, shrug their shoulders, and continue to mess up the planet. Lets not break it, because right now the next one is about 39 light years away and could have Aliens that look like you on roids after a bad day. Let’s stick with plan A and try putting the punch down at this party for a minute.

#43 Mrs Hubris on 03.09.17 at 7:46 pm

Radio interview yesterday with two women running an ‘women investing in real estate’ exhibit in Victoria. Told a story about a friend who had no retirement fund and no place of her own. However one of the gals had helped her with investing in real estate. I guess she now has a large loan and tenants to add to her non-existent retirement fund.

#44 CL on 03.09.17 at 7:50 pm

Interest rates will rise faster than people think and by natural laws asset prices will have to react accordingly regardless of what people want or think. Wage inflation and household formation in the US is hot and this is without implemented Trump policies yet. The Fed is clearly wanting to get ahead of what they might see as a rapid rising inflation especially with new jobless claims already at a 44 year low.

The irony is while Trudeau was telling major energy players how Canada is a great place to do business, Shell announced they’ve sold their oilsands operations (with more AB asset sales to come) to CNRL. The conspiratorial theorist comes out in me thinking this was a direct shot (planned announcement date) at all levels of government in Canada.

I can tell you the majors multi nationals/US co’s have been exiting Canada since 2014. Soon to be all gone along with thousands of more jobs and a huge decommissioning liability that taxpayers will be picking up the tab for.

Alberta’s pain, and thus the entire country, is only the beginning even though over two years have passed. People were too complacent thinking the economy would bounce back “like it always does” but not this time. Not with interest rates on the rise and the CAD operating as a petro currency.

As I said before, Canadian policy makers should be embarrassed and ashamed that every major important institution in the world has called out Canada for its stupidity and yet they continue on the opposite direction of simple economics. Since the US is Canada’s biggest creditor, and nobody has the guts to implement sensible policy, if we hit a wall, Trump might be welcoming some new US states formerly called Canada.

#45 IHCTD9 on 03.09.17 at 7:53 pm

#13 Mike in Calgary on 03.09.17 at 6:43 pm
Here’s what $21 million can get in Vancouver:

That comparison paints insanity like nothing else ever has.

Not to mention that house might be going for a swim if they don’t get that erosion under control.

#46 Gulf Breeze on 03.09.17 at 7:55 pm

#5
Boots on the Ground,

I have similar quandaries. My business is in the U.S., my income in U.S. funds but I live in Canada. Sounds super wonderful but I fret over social political economic volatility of all kinds like the repercussions of having commercial real estate in a sanctuary city.

I will also be directly affected if one of my tenants is pushed out of business by the tangerine fuhrer and his anti-pot crew.

Back to your question. If I were you, I would hedge. Take 45% and convert to American. Take 5% and buy gold bullion or precious metal mutual fund and create a tfsa for it.

Avoid the stock market until it is certain that the apricot troll doll can push his infrastructure plans through congress.

#47 acdel on 03.09.17 at 7:55 pm

#38 Smoking Man

I would be there if I did not live in the other side of this great country; great idea, hope all of you in Ontario that read this blog take advantage of this and post all the great idea’s or punch ups (with pics, ha,ha) to the rest of us blog dog’s (sorry Felix).

#48 Steve on 03.09.17 at 7:57 pm

I’m completely in shock … I talked to lenders everyday / while they agree prices crazy .. as long as appraisal comes in they don’t care / and the insurers like cmhc and genworth keep insuring these deals / so if we all feel bubble / why don’t they ??? i’m so confused / I still tell people being house poor is not worth it / living life is what it’s all about

#49 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.09.17 at 7:59 pm

Hey! Smoking Man! I’m callin’ you out.

If indeed you can move anywhere, you can sell your POS Long Branch bung, pocket a bunch o’ money, and move here:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17856272/9484-WALKER-ESSEX-MCGREGOR-Ontario-N0R1J0

I need a drinking partner. We would practically be neighbors.

#50 John Martin on 03.09.17 at 8:01 pm

Want a cheap home ? A 3-D printed home for about $10K (US) and completed in 24 hrs.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/this-san-francisco-start-up-will-3d-print-your-house-in-24-hours-and-it-will-only-cost-10k-u-s

M80Mb.

#51 Furnaceman on 03.09.17 at 8:02 pm

Garth, maybe tomorrow we can take a break and talk about investing money again besides in real estate. Possibly throw the dogs a bone and let us know what sector of etf’s you favour at the moment. I like Reit’s because I dont want to deal with tenants, repairs and the return is still fairly resonable.

oh, I know buying real estate at the moment is not investing but it might catch your attention.

#52 Millenial on 03.09.17 at 8:14 pm

Just checked on google maps. The house is within easy walking distance of a GO station. That was probably the justification for the buyer. House isn’t worth three quarters of a million dollars though; not by a long shot.

I was just thinking that Trudeau has been in power long enough now to own this housing issue. Can’t blame Harper for this one now. Trudeau and Morneau haven’t done enough.

#53 ChineseDude on 03.09.17 at 8:14 pm

Garth, I am a Chinese, but am sick tired to hearing this foreign speculator tax is called Chinese dude tax for many times. First, the Chinese dude should not take the credit along; Second, if the foreign speculators cause so much trouble and misery to the local people’s life, what is wrong to tax them down or even tax them away, whether they are Chinese or not, just because they are Chinese dude?

The realtors keep saying the foreign speculators are just a small percentage, so put a tax on them should have minimal effects, then why they get agitated? In my view, even a small percentage of foreign speculators can change market mentality and psychology greatly, just like a small percentage of poison in good cause the whole thing harmful. Can the realtors claim that it is ok if a small percentage of poison added to their food?

#54 leebow on 03.09.17 at 8:21 pm

[i]I am actually curious not sure if anyone can provide insight?[/i]

Sure. They do whatever needs to be done to make it happen.

#55 For those about to flop... on 03.09.17 at 8:29 pm

acdel on 03.09.17 at 7:55 pm
#38 Smoking Man

I would be there if I did not live in the other side of this great country; great idea, hope all of you in Ontario that read this blog take advantage of this and post all the great idea’s or punch ups (with pics, ha,ha) to the rest of us blog dog’s (sorry Felix).

///////////////////////////

Hey acdel,are you kidding?

A chance to punch Joking Man in the face and eat ice cream at the same time…

I’m not missing out on that…

M42BC

#kidding

#56 Porsche on 03.09.17 at 8:30 pm

#13 Mike in Calgary on 03.09.17 at 6:43 pm

Half the price get’s you this ocean front in Florida

https://www.langrealty.com/listing/rx-10309005-1357-n-ocean-blvd-gulf-stream-fl-33483/

#57 leebow on 03.09.17 at 8:31 pm

# 41 AJ
[i]And it’s also dangerous that people are allowed to deny it, shrug their shoulders, and continue to mess up the planet. [/i]

You make no sense. Allowed to deny what? That cows are farting? How do they mess up the planet? By shrugging?

#58 acdel on 03.09.17 at 8:32 pm

#41 AJ

Everybody wants clean air and clean drinking water; comparing to the 70’s and especially with the population increases since then it is much better now than then.

Be realistic, especially with science, in Canada (the second largest country in the world with 36 mil pop) we absorb more the we contribute. Can we get better, you bet, and we are, but realize that Canadian’s expect a certain way of life, it needs to be paid for, at the same time we need the money to move towards a cleaner society. Personally as many other’s we are tapped out, how much more does one expect out of our paychecks; it takes time and alot of money; but we are getting there, ignore the alarmist; I have shoveled snow for the past seven days, tonight it is going down to minus 23, enough with the rhetoric and stupid tax grab! Enjoy life!

#59 TurnerNation on 03.09.17 at 8:37 pm

To all the gold loons/wackos. Look at your past and your future:

“The wasted years”:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1

Why isn’t the “smart money” going nuts an driving up demand? Oh I get it, the “JPM” and cunning central blankers are driving down prices so they can load up – on the cheap wink wink. The bashers just want cheap shares.
Strong hands prevail right?

You forget supply & demand. No one wants this stuff. Check the S&P 500 chart. Got it want it need it.

#60 Canadian money with equal rights on 03.09.17 at 8:38 pm

#36 Ret on 03.09.17 at 7:23 pm

I checked how long it will take a newcomer to get their first Permanent Resident card. See the government site linked below.

45 days. That should really slow down foreign buyers. If their 18+ year old children choose to get PR cards, they can all buy houses too.

There are no real obstacles to foreign purchases of real estate in Canada, so why do we pretend that there are?

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/information/times/index.asp

Then they are Canadians, like you, with equal rights. — Garth

Absolutely.

And in stats the purchase will show up as domestic.

Even though the money for the purchase was not made in 45 days, in Canada.

It’s “Canadian money” now, with equal rights.
Money talk talks, dogs bark.

#61 Smoking Man on 03.09.17 at 8:39 pm

#48 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.09.17 at 7:59 pm
Hey! Smoking Man! I’m callin’ you out.

If indeed you can move anywhere, you can sell your POS Long Branch bung, pocket a bunch o’ money, and move here:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17856272/9484-WALKER-ESSEX-MCGREGOR-Ontario-N0R1J0

I need a drinking partner. We would practically be neighbors.
….

I have no idea where I will end up. Know this, I drink alone. We can be buddies till 9 pm. After that you got to go..

That’s my writing time.

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.17 at 8:41 pm

@#38 Smoking Man
“Garth why don’t you have a shin dig at the general store this summer. A meet up for all the dogs.”
*******************************************

“cricket!” “cricket!” “cricket!”

#63 Al on 03.09.17 at 8:41 pm

A “non-citizen” buyers tax on the itsy bitsy 5% of buyers brought the Vancouver market to its senses, and will do the same for Ontario. But they must make it Retroactive to all closings from March 1, 2017 onwards.

#64 it will be like swiss cheese on 03.09.17 at 8:41 pm

first off the ON govt is basically useless – afraid of its own shadow. the tax will be a pittance and full of loopholes. they just want to sucker people into thinking they’re doing something without actually doing anything. just watch.

#65 Ace Goodheart on 03.09.17 at 8:42 pm

I remember back when I started running an experimental portfolio and I was tweaking it and figuring out how to make it consistent. I had a hard time talking to people about it, because everyone wanted to talk about how much their stocks had increased or how much they thought their stuff was worth.

I was more worried about monthly distributions.

I was trying to hit a constant number.

After a number of years of playing around with it, I remember I managed to get it to produce $500.00 per month, consistently, every month, no matter what month it was. I ran it like this for a year and charted it. I got between $500 and $550 or so each month, on a consistent basis.

I then upped the amount in the portfolio and ended up with $700 per month, again, consistently, every month, no matter what month it was or what time of year, and I managed to make it consistent. I ran it for another year.

I told people about this. What I got was to the effect “that’s not a lot of money”, “you’d get more on welfare”, “that’s it?”, “that’s not very good”. No one saw what I did.

From my perspective, it was like I’d discovered that the speed of light was not actually a constant and in fact could be increased to any amount. I had discovered how to put together a cash machine.

All I had to do, to get more every month, was to add more money to the machine.

I think more people have to look at investing this way. It is not how much your stuff is worth, or how much you could sell it for. It is how much it can provide you in free cash every month. Money that you don’t have to work for. Free money. Given to you, with no conditions, each and every month of your life.

#66 John on 03.09.17 at 8:44 pm

I really don’t understand why a foreign buyers tax is a bad thing. I don’t appreciate people parking their money in housing as an investment playing around with the lives of everyday Canadians.
If foreign buyers don’t affect home prices then why did Vancouver’s housing prices stop rising when this tax was introunced and causing Toronto’s market to get bubbly.
I don’t appreciate your denial of the influence of foreign buyers

Provide any new statistical evidence and I will recant. — Garth

#67 Flint on 03.09.17 at 8:45 pm

Holy [email protected]&!, I need to get my money out of CDN

#68 Smoking Man on 03.09.17 at 8:46 pm

#46 acdel on 03.09.17 at 7:55 pm
#38 Smoking Man

I would be there if I did not live in the other side of this great country; great idea, hope all of you in Ontario that read this blog take advantage of this and post all the great idea’s or punch ups (with pics, ha,ha) to the rest of us blog dog’s (sorry Felix).
….

I’ll pay your flight still got a bit $$$ left… but I need a few good book reviews on amazon.

Help

#69 Andrew t on 03.09.17 at 8:47 pm

#54 acdel

Bummer about the snow, dude.
It may still be technically winter, but tulips are coming up in T.O.
(The actual plants, not just the bubble metaphor)

#70 Flint on 03.09.17 at 8:48 pm

Garth, what is the best way to avoid the beaver when you’re paid in it and that is your main source of income?

#71 Setting the Record Straight on 03.09.17 at 8:48 pm

@acdel

“What is disappointing about all of this is what we can be if we actually worked as a country such as the U.S. and others!”

Now shouldn’t we all apologize to Lucien ‘Canada is not a real country’ Bouchard?

#72 Smoking Man on 03.09.17 at 8:49 pm

41 AJ on 03.09.17 at 7:44 pm
Smoking Man- and other climate change deniers, with respect, you’re dead wrong. Do you know how many cars are on this planet? How many cows farting? For how long now? It’s irrefutable. And it’s also dangerous that people are allowed to deny it, shrug their shoulders, and continue to mess up the planet. Lets not break it, because right now the next one is about 39 light years away and could have Aliens that look like you on roids after a bad day. Let’s stick with plan A and try putting the punch down at this party for a minute.

I’m long over due for a visit at a shrinks office. There is no hope for you.

Teachers got you good.

#73 Tony on 03.09.17 at 9:03 pm

Re: #5 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 03.09.17 at 6:30 pm

I hope you took out a large mortgage as large as possible. You’ll be much further ahead paying back that mortgage in the future in devalued Canadian dollars vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar.

#74 Tudval on 03.09.17 at 9:06 pm

“The buyers? In that price range, of course, first-timers – desperate to get into a house, any house(..)”

WRONG! (again) . You’d have said the same last year, that they are ‘poor first time buyers’ and proven wrong.. perhaps just speculators, fippers, maybe if neighbours are lucky, renovators.

In my area there are a few houses that sell every 2-3 years – the same ones, maybe 5%. Why speculators take to these is precisely because they are small and ugly, often passed by end-users at those ‘ridiculous prices’. That gives them some possibilities. If markets go up, they sell for a profit without breaking a sweat. If market is flat, they may have to put some work and make money the hard way. If it goes down, at least they risked less money. Something wrong with it? Yeah, if you’re a communist.

Any speculator paying 46% more than ten months earlier won’t be specking for long. Silly comment. — Garth

#75 Porsche on 03.09.17 at 9:06 pm

#41 AJ

Everybody wants clean air and clean drinking water; comparing to the 70’s and especially with the population increases since then it is much better now than then.

I drank water from a garden hose in the 70’s, sat in asbestos classrooms, crawled under my desk when the air raid siren went off, got the strap in school I don’t know how many times, have an Edmonton school certificate living through 40 days of 40 below, played hockey on outdoor slews

#76 frontrunning on 03.09.17 at 9:07 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/information-failure-in-canadas-stock-markets-2017-3

What’s information failure? It’s when some, or all, of the participants in an economic exchange do not have perfect knowledge. This leads to a misallocation of scarce resources and it appears to exist in numerous market exchanges.

In the case of securities in Canada, the problem arises from the market data that investors are using to make buying and selling decisions.

#77 millmech on 03.09.17 at 9:08 pm

#154 Burnaby Guy 17-03-08
I have been renting for a long time now, putting away 50% of my income for years now, in three years good bye ever having to work again, will be financially independent before 50.
If I was an owner I would end up working until 65 because once the mortgage is paid off you have substantially less time for compounding to work its magic on your investment money(my compounding return is way more than what I put in) and as I posted before the ongoing monthly expenses of home ownership is likely twice what I am paying for rent.
I’m not against housing at all, heck once it melts down to a reasonable amount I will be buying my retirement home for cash as I will not pay a dime in interest to the banks.

#78 leebow on 03.09.17 at 9:10 pm

#63 John
I’ll tell you why it’s good. Because when a Chinese dude (somehow, it’s always dude and not a dudette) spends a million dollars, Canada repatriates the money that was spent in Dollarama buying useless krap.

That’s your current account. Buy shits from dollar store -> sell a house to a foreigner (if you can’t produce anything else of value).

The bonus is that the Chinese dude and dudette will be (hopefully) buying a lot of useless krap in Canada, thus paying sales taxes and salaries to Canadian retail workers.

The real losers in this situations are the Chinese dudes and dudettes who actually manufactured the useless krap and live in some shitty dormitory in the province of Iguanodong. They get neither dollar store krap, nor the houses.

#79 acdel on 03.09.17 at 9:11 pm

#67 Smoking Man

Thanks Smokie I appreciate that, it’s the busiest time of my season; believe me, if I could be there I would.
What a great time it would be to experience all the great ideas with all the great people and suck back a few brewkies!

All of you close to Garth’s location, pending on what Garth agree’s to.
What a great way to get some new ideas out there. The rest of us (or me) would really be interested in the outcome.

#80 Al on 03.09.17 at 9:11 pm

Sousa’s just trying to squeeze a lot more land transfer taxes out of the real estate bubble in Ontario so as to pay down the Ontario Deficit because higher interest rates will soon lead to a downgrade of Ontario’s credit rating. Saying that he has to do something is just asking for buyers to hurry up and buy.

#81 black swan on 03.09.17 at 9:13 pm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-09/theyre-erupting-alaskan-volcano-throws-ash-35000-feet-interrupting-commercial-flight

A volcano in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands has been erupting quite a bit lately – and has now had its biggest eruption so far in recent months, sending volcanic ash hurling some 35,000 feet into the air, high enough to disrupt commercial flights. That was the Bogoslof Volcano.

#82 acdel on 03.09.17 at 9:13 pm

#70 Setting the Record Straight

No!

It’s the past! Let’s us move forward!

#83 acdel on 03.09.17 at 9:14 pm

#68 Andrew t

I so envy you, enjoy it!

#84 Eurovision on 03.09.17 at 9:16 pm

BOC RE pyramid scheme, boomers should run for the hills while there’s still time. The gig is up, good luck..

#85 Al on 03.09.17 at 9:16 pm

#65 – John;
You are right – the proof is in the pudding!
Right after the Vancouver non-citizen tax was implemented, prices go to the moon in Toronto and Seattle.

#86 Tony on 03.09.17 at 9:16 pm

Re: #52 ChineseDude on 03.09.17 at 8:14 pm

Point blank it’s only your race of people that keeps on overpaying for residential real estate. If the shoe was on the other foot and it was another race of people who were the “only” race overpaying the resentment would be aimed at that race of people.

#87 45north on 03.09.17 at 9:17 pm

Then we have the political dunces. Ontario’s about to bring in a Chinese dudes tax of its own – a version of the one that dropped sales in Vancouver by 70% in many hoods, and has cratered the top end of the market.

this is window dressing – the market in Southern Ontario is about to crash, nobody can do anything but the politicians need a place to hide and this is the best hole they can find.

The BC situation is relevant. Ross Kay is adamant that BC real estate has lost 20% across the board. It’s the biggest lost of capitalization in Canadian history and it will be manifest by May this year just in time for the BC election!

Window dressing isn’t going to matter. Take today’s example the buyers of 21 Hillview Drive: they’ve just signed a mortgage for $661,888, they’re paying $3,481 a month and have taken all Mom’s money for the down payment! They need to see 10% appreciation a year to feel good about themselves – if there’s a 10% drop they’re not going to be happy. They will vote against the government in power – provincially and federally.

I got the numbers from Alterna Bank’s mortgage calculator:

https://mcaf.ee/k6egjf

anybody got better numbers?

#88 45north on 03.09.17 at 9:20 pm

Altering Bank’s mortgage calculator:

https://www.alterna.ca/ToolsAndCalculators/Calculators/MortgageCalculator/

#89 mark on 03.09.17 at 9:20 pm

DELETED

#90 conan on 03.09.17 at 9:22 pm

I guess the question is, if you were running the show, how would you best maintain RE values, so that you can tax the poo out of it?

Bringing in the “CD” tax was to garner favor with Mr Chinese ambassador guy with angry hands ( remember him?) Is it an accident that this is the policy that seems to be working?

Maybe we should have listened to this Kommissar earlier?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBfFDTPPlaM

#91 Stats on 03.09.17 at 9:24 pm

Garth you’re saying to the above provide statistical evidence of foreign buyers. How can anyone when it’s covered up by TREB and governments. We have access to nothing. We just know there’s a surprising amount of homes sold and either empty or leased right away, based on people in those neighbourhoods.

Foreign buyer tax is needed, 100%.and speculation tax and empty home tax.

#92 Brian Ripley on 03.09.17 at 9:26 pm

The price of our biggest export tumbled. Garth

The oil drop, it’s on many people’s minds today. My post today
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/oil-o-nomics

considers the potential of an oil/commodity swoon to change the arc of the pending real estate correction in Canada.

Net investment capital is going out of Canada and is accelerating (my FDI-FDO plot).

And with bond yields rising, the bank of mom and dad is no doubt going to rethink taking on any more risk.

Negative cap rates are not attractive if equity values switch direction.

#93 Tudval on 03.09.17 at 9:27 pm

John, the foreign buyers tax is bad because it’s nobody’s business who i sell MY property to. Unless you can prove that the buyer is some threat, in FREE countries around the world people have the right and DO buy in foreign countries for any number of reasons. And please, don’t tell me about China (Hong Kong) or Singapore . I said FREE.

To make profit by renting is one of those possible reasons and in fact, in said FREE capitalist countries there are large pool of money (REITS) that provide a return to investors by buying and renting out property. Capitalism 101, in case you missed it.

2nd – Vancouver is a small place and, even if I don’t agree on the principle aforementioned , one could make the argument that they needed to ‘buy time’ and stall the demand until they come out with a better approach. But the pause in demand – you will see – is temporary and all they did had more of a psychological impact on buyers of very expensive homes. IT DOES NOTHING to improve affordability, which by definition, is all about lower priced properties.

#94 Nemesis on 03.09.17 at 9:28 pm

“Provide any new statistical evidence and I will recant.” — St.Gartholomew

#InOtherNews…

[MiamiHerald] – Miami lawyer’s pants erupt in flames during arson trial in court

…”A Miami defense lawyer’s pants burst into flames Wednesday afternoon as he began his closing arguments in front of a jury — in an arson case.

Stephen Gutierrez, who was arguing that his client’s car spontaneously combusted and was not intentionally set on fire, had been fiddling in his pocket as he was about to address jurors when smoke began billowing out his right pocket, witnesses told the Miami Herald.”…

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/crime/article137317553.html

#95 not 1st on 03.09.17 at 9:35 pm

Garth, look what you have created. Your own personal financial frankesteins. These two are insufferable.

http://www.businessinsider.com/an-engineer-explains-her-spending-philosophy-2017-3

#96 NoName on 03.09.17 at 9:39 pm

I was planning on posting this yesterday but didn’t get to it…

Interesting read.

Bill one funny guy…
“The original welfare reform bill—a bill, it should be recalled, which was signed by President Bill Clinton—included an allocation of $100 million for “chastity training”for low-income women.

http://bit.ly/2lJlNje

#97 Pre-retiree on 03.09.17 at 9:40 pm

Agree entirely with #26 cto
If not Ontario-wide, they’ll create the same problems they did outside of Vancouver

#98 Smoking Man on 03.09.17 at 9:41 pm

I’m taken a spin in the plasma flier tonight, freak out the native Indians at Selemenca.

I never drink and drive that’s hard..but flying a plasma flier, well fking under rated, stelrh mode with anti crash activated.

https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=PlIhzCUx890

Shit star men do..

Go night, I started early tonight. No job.

#99 Deplorable communications on 03.09.17 at 9:47 pm

#12 Smoking Man on 03.09.17 at 6:39 pm

Tax, hope he does it and lose sll the new canadians waiting for citizenship, the newly landed who bought will get hit with 15% instantly turning a lib vote to blue.

Won’t happen. Libs need those votes badly.

I hate the fact that I need sell soon, no job, and bad bets this year. Long Branch bungees 2 million on two years. The demand is insane. Zero Supply.
..

Jimbo smoking stooge on the ropes.. selling the bung for cigs!!.. what about ecuador… beaches, babes and off-shored tax free forex billions

#100 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.09.17 at 9:48 pm

Just got a phone call from my Vancouver Mortgage Broker.

“hows business” I said.
“Crazy”Was the reply.

Then he went on to talk like a realtor about multiple offers over asking to help keep the pump and dump mantra alive.

All the while I am wondering why he is calling me when he is so busy?

At the end I tried to get off the phone saying I don’t need his help right now and he desperately said “do you know anyone who is buying a home right now?”

#101 freedom55 on 03.09.17 at 9:48 pm

S&P500 up 250% since 2009. Up 155% since 1997.
My total RE investments are up 200% since 1997.

RE rental income gives back like bonds. I average 5% return, and the values have increased. I always max our TFSA contributions and RRSPs with our rental income. Rental income that is CASH in hand.

Waiting patiently to purchase another property when the correction occurs, but while I wait I smarten myself up reading everyone’s opinion on investments. I really think all wanna-be investors learn about all possible investments and their risks, and decide to either get help if they don’t understand the risks or take the plunge solo. RE rental income is a risk like all other investments, and also takes a lot of hands on management of your properties, but the returns over the long run (20 years for me) will make you financially comfortable and actually quite stress free, since money problems become none existent. Sure if the correction occurs, my investments are pinched, but the RE income still flows and ultimately, the values will return to their upward climb, as history shows. And of course after 20 years, I have no mortgages today.

Rental income is 100% taxed. Investment income taxed far less. Anyway, it’s not a contest. — Garth

#102 b riding dirty on 03.09.17 at 9:53 pm

glad to see the t dot riding the same wave we have seen out west. houses a two years ago out in the valley were selling for 550k 12 months later selling for 800k today they are going for 799k and waiting a month to sell. no crash. still low supply. but waiting to see the 550k days will if ever be years and many many many years away if ever. you snooze you loose on gains. take everything with a grain of salt. except smoking mans words. called a year ago toronto peak 2018. seems like he may of hit the nail on the head yet again.

#103 RentYVR on 03.09.17 at 9:54 pm

Good post. The only issue I take with your analysis is that rising inflation typically benefits real estate. And the Bank of Canada has repeatedly said that it’s still looking to cut not raise rates. But yeah, anyone buying RE today in Toronto or Van must have you know what of steel.

#104 I think I know not on 03.09.17 at 9:56 pm

“This week the Bank of International Settlements (sort of like the Bank of Canada’s parent) said we are ‘vulnerable to a crisis’ because of excessive credit levels, house prices and the potential for higher interest rates.” – Garth

——————————————————–

“Potential for higher interest rates.” Ha, ha. That’s real comedic stuff.

Be sure to check back in on Wednesday. — Garth

#105 joblo on 03.09.17 at 10:00 pm

“Oil is now just $49 a barrel, down 10% in recent days. Ouch. Thanks to Trump, re-energized US shale producers are churning out production, and the spectre of higher interest rates has pumped the American dollar, clobbering commodities and the loonie (now 74 cents). None of that – oil, dollar, rates – is good. ”

Everyday I thank god for Walmart!

#106 The other white meat(pork) on 03.09.17 at 10:05 pm

Ontario’s about to bring in a Chinese dudes tax of its own – a version of the one that dropped sales in Vancouver by 70% in many hoods, and has cratered the top end of the market. This pathetic blog told you some months ago it was being actively considered and now, apparently, it’ll happen.”

And all the while you were telling us that foreign buyers in YVR comprised an insignificant number of sales, while those of us who live here knew differently. Then you said (or was it Ross Kay?)that the market rolled over in May, and the tax had no real effect on sales. So which is it?

I love this blog because of your underlying message of balance and not being a debt slave, but the glaring contradictions can’t pass without comment. When you tell people to sell up and realize their gains now, I’m reminded of the advice I gave my foreign gf when her RE holdings took off in value. Recency bias won the day, the market came to a dead stop, and she’s paying property taxes and maintenance on “assets” that she can’t give away now. No mortgages but the overhead eats into the quality of a person’s life.

Check the archives. The market was rolling in YVR last Spring. This blog issued a final lifeboats call in July. The tax hit in August. It was just the final straw. Research a little and you’ll be less embarrassed. — Garth

#107 NOTHING SURPRISES on 03.09.17 at 10:07 pm

Update:
From Canadian Snowbird in the U.S. re: fear in America due to Trump.

The Canadian housing condition should keep the spotlight for the average citizen while the U.S. continues being undermined by the Russians unfortunately assisted by the POTUS.

Our Canadian housing future is most serious.
In comparison, the U.S. future is most serious by a factor at a level causing fear.

#108 Toronto1 on 03.09.17 at 10:07 pm

Politicians are really getting worried now- same with the big dogs in the glass towers on Bay St.

The foreign tax will happen- most likely be inclusive of the entire province and be 20%.

This will be introduced similar to the same time that T2 drops his budget and changes to capital gains tax

CRA will offer an amnesty to those who sold in the last few years, those with basement suites etc..

the hunt for tax $ is on

really the foreign tax on RE should have minimal impact IF foreign buyers only represent 5-7% of the market, seriously “Wild Bill” knee capped first time buyers and took 10-20% of the market- no impact so its a no brainer.

From my antidoteal evidence- speaking with co-workers and clients– big change in the last month-month and half. In Oct-Nov-Dec, no one every brought up real estate, most didn’t even realize that new mortgage regs were introduced. Last month-month and a half- people talk about it daily here– but everyone is saying its a bubble (even the Uber driver I took last week).

Dangerous talk lead to actions leads to herd changing direction– soon in the very near future it will be lights out on this market- like someone turned of a light switch, no one wants to buy at the top and be left looking like an idiot.

#109 Sir James on 03.09.17 at 10:17 pm

#18 Smoking Man

Yes, it is refreshing to see someone stand up to the fallacies of the Climate-Gate deniers. Wasn’t it ‘peer review’ and ‘consensus’ that primitive man used to determine the earth was flat?

#110 ronh on 03.09.17 at 10:25 pm

From [email protected]:

http://www.howestreet.com/2017/03/08/wells-fargo-north-canadian-banks-cross-selling-customers-into-financial-hell/

#111 No Mercy on 03.09.17 at 10:30 pm

41 AJ on 03.09.17 at 7:44 pm
Smoking Man- and other climate change deniers, with respect, you’re dead wrong.
—–

I am not a denier. Climate change is happening. I worry about all those old gold mine in northern Canada that will leak cyanide some day and methane pockets seep out.

But I do believe neo-liberals are horrible people wanting to make democracy into a socialist society (Example: Agenda 21). Placing people in condo boxes and charging them carbon taxes so their market trading friend can make a %.

AJ … look around you. See any plastic? Go in your fridge. Do the same.

I have acquaintances that yap about pollution and climate change. And then notice their snow mobile, heated pool, plastic all over and oil furnace. I do not bother debating with them. I just make sure their husbands get drunk and we set a big bonfire to help warm up the planet. We are in rural and why bother paying $15 for a open fire license when we can do it for free.

#112 Bob Loblaw on 03.09.17 at 10:32 pm

It’s almost as if Greater Torononoans enjoy screwing themselves over

#113 Johnnyk on 03.09.17 at 10:32 pm

#64 Ace Goodheart- your money machine, is it BPadrs???
(last 10 yrs $30/40 and 7% dividend (recent)

#71 Smoking Man- Here in the US, about 10-15 years ago most of the public, k-12 schools were built new; along with the obligatory brain-washing wind turbine and or solar panels adjacent…

also, what is the title of your book? can’t buy it if there is no way to find it.

Garth, so how does one short sell RE when you don’t have your name on the deed or involvement in the proceeds?????

#114 Paul T on 03.09.17 at 10:35 pm

Calling for 50% foreign buyer’s tax. Problems solved.

#115 cramar on 03.09.17 at 10:35 pm

Perhaps this blog should consider an official “Greater Fool” award (maybe a T-shirt?). Every time some couple buys an overpriced house way over list, the award can be sent to them.

I’d love to do an interview with them in 3 years to ask, “How’s it working out for ya?”

#116 Vit on 03.09.17 at 10:38 pm

— Ontario’s about to bring in a Chinese dudes tax of its own – a version of the one that dropped sales in Vancouver by 70% in many hoods, and has cratered the top end of the market—
What is the soures of this information ??????

The finance minister. — Garth

#117 For those about to flop... on 03.09.17 at 10:41 pm

O.k I was a bit of a ratbag in my last post but check out this article on American homeownership…

M42BC

“Is the American Dream dead? If home ownership as an attainable goal for the average American is the yardstick, then it is struggling – and currently in worse shape than it has been since the time of Richard Nixon, with one exception.
This graph shows the median price for a single-family home in the inaugural year of each of the nine most recent U.S. presidents and compares it to the median annual family income at those times. Both prices and wages are adjusted for inflation, i.e. expressed in 2016 dollars. House prices are provided by the National Association of Realtors, wages by the U.S. Census.”

https://howmuch.net

#118 Vit on 03.09.17 at 11:01 pm

Rates going lower . Now 1.9%

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/is-the-new-199-18-month-fixed-mortgage-rate-a-good-buy/article34228214/

Gimmick. You fell for it. — Garth

#119 WUL on 03.09.17 at 11:05 pm

So, Shell Canada has abandoned the Athabasca oil sands and dropped Ft. McMurray like a bad habit.

Hey CNRL, for about 1/10,000th of the amount you paid Shell, I’ll leave the Taiga too, assign my rental (complete with a hot plate and toaster oven) and I’ll throw in a golf club membership to boot.

Have your lawyer call this lawyer.

#120 Long-Time Lurker on 03.09.17 at 11:06 pm

If the source is correct (The Sun, UK), the USA has gone onto war footing with North Korea:

They’re sending over warships and bombers over there.

I got a good tip, yesterday, so I’d like to return the favour.

Back in the 90’s, I was reading a book about the U.S. stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression. One thing the author wrote made an impression on me and I made a written note of it which I’ve lost in the subsequent 19 years. The gist of it was this:

“The raising of interest rates was the sign to get out of the stock market. A year later, the stock market crashed.”

It’s just something to think about since the US Fed is going to raise interest rates soon. I mean Ben Bernanke prevented a great depression with all his money printing (QE1-3) and the US ended with “The Great Recession”. Maybe that game is over now?

I think Trump is definitely improving the US economy but I don’t see how he could stop a stock market crash if it were to happen. The Plunge Protection Team? (The Fed Banks buy up stocks to stop them from falling –I hear they have a trading desk at NYSE.)

Rates are rising because the economy is expanding. That is good news, not bad. There is no crash on the horizon, nor did high rates cause 1929. — Garth

#121 diversification on 03.09.17 at 11:17 pm

#154 Burnaby Guy 17-03-08
I have been renting for a long time now, putting away 50% of my income for years now, in three years good bye ever having to work again, will be financially independent before 50.
If I was an owner I would end up working until 65 because once the mortgage is paid off you have substantially less time for compounding to work its magic on your investment money(my compounding return is way more than what I put in) and as I posted before the ongoing monthly expenses of home ownership is likely twice what I am paying for rent.
I’m not against housing at all, heck once it melts down to a reasonable amount I will be buying my retirement home for cash as I will not pay a dime in interest to the banks.
…………….

given it appears you’re close to retirement don’t let market recency bias own you. Anything that happens with Trump (impeachment, something tragic, etc) could crush the market and the folks singing the market praises will then play the ‘wait until it recovers, dont sell’ game. Historically a 30% correction occurs ebery 8-10 yrs, last one was in 2008. In fact,ask the folks that entered/close to retirement in 2008. Some HAD to dip into capital, sadly. Some, a lot worse.

i own the property we live in and two rental properties both of which are cash flow positive. Real estate has been silly of late and i’m expecting a slowdown– likely significant. No problem. ‘Long term holds’ , part of our investment portfolio — 58/42 portfolio. Diversified…:)

sadly, most people MUST take on greater risk to meet retirement goals, not unusal to see folks in their 50’s with 65/35 portfolios!! Yield has been MIA for years

People in the 50s have 30 years of retirement to finance. A 60/40 balanced portfolio is entirely appropriate, unless you already have millions. — Garth

#122 The Dude on 03.09.17 at 11:24 pm

Could have sworn you called someone out over the 50% gain thing.

#123 yup on 03.09.17 at 11:31 pm

I remember back when I started running an experimental portfolio and I was tweaking it and figuring out how to make it consistent. I had a hard time talking to people about it, because everyone wanted to talk about how much their stocks had increased or how much they thought their stuff was worth.

I was more worried about monthly distributions.

I was trying to hit a constant number.

After a number of years of playing around with it, I remember I managed to get it to produce $500.00 per month, consistently, every month, no matter what month it was. I ran it like this for a year and charted it. I got between $500 and $550 or so each month, on a consistent basis.

I then upped the amount in the portfolio and ended up with $700 per month, again, consistently, every month, no matter what month it was or what time of year, and I managed to make it consistent. I ran it for another year.

I told people about this. What I got was to the effect “that’s not a lot of money”, “you’d get more on welfare”, “that’s it?”, “that’s not very good”. No one saw what I did.

From my perspective, it was like I’d discovered that the speed of light was not actually a constant and in fact could be increased to any amount. I had discovered how to put together a cash machine.

All I had to do, to get more every month, was to add more money to the machine.

I think more people have to look at investing this way. It is not how much your stuff is worth, or how much you could sell it for. It is how much it can provide you in free cash every month. Money that you don’t have to work for. Free money. Given to you, with no conditions, each and every month of your life.

………..

and in this environement, for me, selling calls is a terrific way to increase yield. Flexibility , can be very conservative with choice of underlying to moderate risk. Or just let an etf do it for ya

#124 Arnold Ziffle on 03.09.17 at 11:32 pm

They are thinking of having all renewals meet the 4.4% interest rate payment threshold…should know soon…this will be a problem for some….

#125 Arnold Ziffle on 03.09.17 at 11:36 pm

Summer is coming soon…so tent/rent free living is coming
Just pitch a tent on crown land and u live 4 free for6 months can’t beat it…Georgian Bay is good because you have your own swimming pool right outside your door and as many fish as you can catch….sometimes a grumpy old lady shows up called the queen…cause its her land…I just offer her some tea and crumpits…its all good

#126 Pete from St. Cesaire on 03.09.17 at 11:39 pm

climate change deniers, with respect, you’re dead wrong. Do you know how many cars are on this planet? How many cows farting? For how long now? It’s irrefutable. And it’s also dangerous that people are allowed to deny it, shrug their shoulders, and continue to mess up the planet.
—————————————————-
Are you aware that 1 large volcanic eruption expels 100’s of times more crap (of all kinds) into the atmosphere than mankind ever could?
Man-made global warming is BS. Global cooling, however, is real and it’s on the way.

#127 Arnold Ziffle on 03.09.17 at 11:40 pm

Forgot to add u have to hava PO box to pick up your Monthly cheque….from Trudy….can paddle into town….its good exercise…and u pick up some fun food and groceries…you get one hell of a tan and no stresss….a solar powered radio fills you in on the chaos in the city…Freedom awaits!

#128 WUL on 03.09.17 at 11:44 pm

Flames 5 Habs 0. Last minute of play. I won a $10.00 bet. Pays for a Lotto Max ticket for tomorrow’s draw. Parlay that to $26 MM. Just sayin’. More later on the Kessel trade last year.

#129 Hmmm on 03.09.17 at 11:49 pm

You seem rather obsessed with real estate, Mr. Turner.

#130 Arnold Ziffle on 03.09.17 at 11:52 pm

DELETED

#131 eddy on 03.09.17 at 11:53 pm

#65 John on 03.09.17 at 8:44 pm
I really don’t understand why a foreign buyers tax is a bad thing. I don’t appreciate people parking their money in housing as an investment playing around with the lives of everyday Canadians.
If foreign buyers don’t affect home prices then why did Vancouver’s housing prices stop rising when this tax was introunced and causing Toronto’s market to get bubbly.
I don’t appreciate your denial of the influence of foreign buyers


when every level of government is actively stimulating then sabotaging the market, the market reacts
it shows bad faith on the part of the government
it’s a conference game

#132 Arnold Ziffle on 03.09.17 at 11:58 pm

Secret for everyone here my Best FRiend is Kedin Olierdie…he really smart guy…like Trumpy his GF friend

I heard on TV during Commercial …CNN say Trumpy get peachmint…sounded scary

#133 pt bob man on 03.10.17 at 12:06 am

are you glad your not depending on a USA teachers pension where some states are 100% financed by current teachers

In Puerto Rico, for instance, the pension funds are so short of cash that money contributed by working teachers basically flows straight out to retirees. None of Puerto Rico’s current teachers can expect to get their money back, because the fund is due to run out of money in 2018, long before they retire.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/08/business/dealbook/puerto-rico-teacher-pensions.html?_r=0

#134 Barry Marcoux on 03.10.17 at 12:45 am

It’s the Bank FOR International Settlements Mr Turner and they really are our Masters in their Tower of Basel

#135 paulo on 03.10.17 at 12:54 am

some possible fixes for the real estate boondoggle:
1.implement a non resident property sale levy of 20%
of the sale price, such as is done in some US states.
2.Limit the capitol gains exemption on sale of principal
residence to a once in a life time per citizen/taxpayer
provided claimant is a citizen and current on annual
federal/provincial tax returns, proving residency.
3.stop the stupidity at CHMC, limit maximum insurance
coverage to a amount not exceeding 50% of the after
down payment amount mortgaged, no coverage for
heloc’s/lines of credit .
4.Do not impose Chinese dude tax. bad business
5.Do Impose a vacant property (speculator tax)
6.All non resident/citizen real estate transactions
subject to the normal capitol gains tax payable by a for
profit enterprise, with tax due and payable on transfer
of title.

#3 would put a immediate end to the
“Very Questionable” mortgage under writing that is
obviously taking place and putting the tax payer at
risk.

#136 For those about to flop... on 03.10.17 at 1:03 am

#13 Mike in Calgary
Here’s what $21 million can get in Vancouver:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17774580/3241-POINT-GREY-ROAD-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V6K1B3

Here’s what the equivalent amount can buy in France:

https://www.prestigeproperty.co.uk/15-bed-french-chateau-the-loire-sarthe-pays-de-la-loire-france-186255

I really don’t understand any of this any more.

///////////////////////////

Hey Mike ,your guys are going for the big fish ,but they themselves are on the hook for 15.5 m…

M42BC

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMDVFUw==

#137 Like Nitro Baby.... on 03.10.17 at 5:49 am

way past too late here,

interest rates still @ “emergency” levels,

in 2016 it took $4 in debt generation to produce $1 GDP in the US of A….

as Bill Gross just put it…..

“How is she doing? So far, so good, I suppose. While the recovery has been weak by historical standards, banks and corporations have recapitalized, job growth has been steady and importantly – at least to the Fed – markets are in record territory, suggesting happier days ahead. But our highly levered financial system is like a truckload of nitro glycerin on a bumpy road. One mistake can set off a credit implosion where holders of stocks, high yield bonds, and yes, subprime mortgages all rush to the bank to claim its one and only dollar in the vault. It happened in 2008, and central banks were in a position to drastically lower yields and buy trillions of dollars via Quantitative Easing (QE) to prevent a run on the system. Today, central bank flexibility is not what it was back then. Yields globally are near zero and in many cases, negative. Continuing QE programs by central banks are approaching limits as they buy up more and more existing debt, threatening repo markets and the day to day functioning of financial commerce.

#138 unbalanced on 03.10.17 at 5:57 am

I love being debt free.

#139 Bond Junkie on 03.10.17 at 6:51 am

#122 good strategy until ur stock spikes to X+opt’n premium in which case you’re called out and left with less attractive alternatives to fill your magical basket.

-Bj

#140 Ace Goodheart on 03.10.17 at 6:54 am

#124 Arnold Ziffle on 03.09.17 at 11:36 pm:

“Summer is coming soon…so tent/rent free living is coming
Just pitch a tent on crown land and u live 4 free for6 months can’t beat it…Georgian Bay is good because you have your own swimming pool right outside your door”

This is excellent information and completely correct. This should be posted outside the offices of real estate agents who are selling cottages in Northern Ontario.

Pay a mil or two for a liability that you use four or five weekends a year…….or just pitch your tent somewhere, stay as long as you like, enjoy the North and when you’re finished, no property tax, no mortgage, no upkeep. Much better….

#141 True North on 03.10.17 at 6:56 am

I saw the picture and did a double take. It looks exactly like the house my parents bought in Napanee for $230K a year and a half ago. House hunters today are certifiable.

#142 slick on 03.10.17 at 7:29 am

talk of a Chinese dude tax will only make the prices rise faster, as people rush to beat the new tax.
Smart.
the liberals are such a short sighted bunch.
Sousa appears to be an intelligent fellow, I just cant believe that he truly believes the shit he says.

#143 Mishuko on 03.10.17 at 7:29 am

I went to visit the store a few weeks after open. Should of mentioned the blog so my gf could of got sprinkles.

Was a quaint experience. Minus the journey there. Holy the speed bumps and silly drivers.

If any of you blog dogs see a black 2 door Japanese sports car come say hi ! Wouldn’t mind meeting anyone.

#144 Stock Picker on 03.10.17 at 7:42 am

Another major investor just pulled out of the oil sands. That 12 billion not creating jobs in Canada. This is the fourth international on the last twelve months. Hundreds of billions not paying taxes to Trudeaus legions of freeloaders. Be careful what you wish for. We’ll still have Alberta oil but none of the foreign investment meaning the deficits will skyrocket, taxes will go up, services will go down and poverty will become the new norm. Trudeau if he has a brain must be crapping himself cause the magic hole is done empty. Whoops…liberal dreams turn into liberal nightmares. Trudy pandered to Soros , Steyer and Tides for donations and end up with an impoverishment death spiral. If you voted liberal you deserve the poverty and lack of opportunity.

#145 pBrasseur on 03.10.17 at 8:01 am

The US richer than ever!

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.ca/2017/03/richer-than-ever.html

And as opposed to Canada this is not a house of card!

#146 John of Grant on 03.10.17 at 8:20 am

#41 AJ

Smoking Man- and other climate change deniers, with respect, you’re dead wrong. Do you know how many cars are on this planet? How many cows farting? For how long now? It’s irrefutable. And it’s also dangerous that people are allowed to deny it, shrug their shoulders, and continue to mess up the planet. Lets not break it, because right now the next one is about 39 light years away and could have Aliens that look like you on roids after a bad day. Let’s stick with plan A and try putting the punch down at this party for a minute.

———————————————————

Not so fast. From IPCC….

“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm

#147 Julia on 03.10.17 at 8:21 am

#140 True North

Buyers are insane. Try to have a rational discussion with prospective buyers and they look at you like you’re the one that’s insane.
In my ‘hood in Toronto, semi detached, no parking, sold for $1.5MM last week. In 3 days. A flip.

An observation from a realtor friend. His clients get consistently outbid by large amounts. Many “successful” buyers end up being a group of people (small contractor, electrician, plumber etc…) They pool their money, do the work themselves and flip. Hard to compete with that.

#148 Millmech on 03.10.17 at 8:28 am

#120 Diversification
Not worried about a crash,hoping for another great buying opportunity actually and I can always keep working even part time.My lifestyle expenses in post 65 years will be easily covered by government largess and small pension.
It’s all about the monthly expenses and if I wanted to today I could easily purchase real estate today but the valuations aren’t there.
Ace Goodhart posted well about the monthly income generated by investments which is the way I went as I have watched people get financially slaughtered by leverage in the past in the last downturn.

#149 Lee on 03.10.17 at 8:58 am

Ace Goodhart,

Still waiting for your source for 400,000 people moving to GTA this year. Do you actually have a source?

#150 Tater on 03.10.17 at 9:12 am

122 yup on 03.09.17 at 11:31 pm

and in this environement, for me, selling calls is a terrific way to increase yield. Flexibility , can be very conservative with choice of underlying to moderate risk. Or just let an etf do it for ya
——————————————————————–
Why not sell puts instead? They’re more expensive and you’re already doing it.

#151 Leo Trollstoy on 03.10.17 at 9:14 am

The US is BOOOOOOOMING baby!

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-jobs-report-february-2017-2017-3

#152 Bat Flipper on 03.10.17 at 9:15 am

A HAM tax in the GTA, that won’t do the trick. The supply side is limited, and the demand is through the roof.
If you look at Van, price appreciation was crazy in all forms; however, in Toronto, price appreciation is segmented to detached, semis and townhouses. Condos just are the sick step child of the GTA market. If houses and condos were balanced, the appreciation would not be as insane.

People know the risks of condos though, and would rather have dirt than a space in the sky.

In GTA, The Problem Isn’t HAM, it is a lack of education, and insurers doing 100% LTV subprime loans (95%+Insurers Fees+ Closing Costs is Over 100%).

#153 IHCTD9 on 03.10.17 at 9:42 am

#148 Lee on 03.10.17 at 8:58 am
Ace Goodhart,

Still waiting for your source for 400,000 people moving to GTA this year. Do you actually have a source?
_____

Looks like GTA projections are just over 100K/yr population increase to 2026.

http://www.greatertoronto.org/why-greater-toronto/economic-overview/population

This is population increase though, not how many new folks move in. I’ve read studies that claim up to 40% of newcomers pack up and leave within 10 years – so those kinds of numbers can only mean there is also a steady exodus of folks leaving the GTA as well.

30 years from now, I expect the GTA to contain very few born Canadians, and either be less populated with about the same level of individual wealth as today, or much more populous combined with a massive drop in the standard of living and wages.

Probably the later.

#154 paulo on 03.10.17 at 9:53 am

SOME INTEREST RATE PREDICTIONS:
US FED WILL RAISE 4 TIMES This year 4x.25 and a 50% chance that the Q4 setting will be .50
First Mortgage Money Will Be 5% or better in Canada by years end, and will increase by a at least 1 percent per year for the following 4 years:
so if you just signed a 5 yr fixed for a million on a dump in the big smoke,you will likely be renewing at near double digit rates at renewal time – ouch

#155 paulo on 03.10.17 at 9:59 am

#148 lee
I think the odds are better that 400K will be moving out of the GTA as they can not afford to live there, Along with a large number of employers that can not attract quality talent due to high housing costs,and remain competitive.

#156 Deano on 03.10.17 at 10:03 am

#124 Arnold Ziffle on 03.09.17 at 11:36 pm
#139 Ace Goodheart on 03.10.17 at 6:54 am
I camp a fair amount, there are rules for using Crown Land. One thing to note, you are not supposed to stay in one spot more than 21 days in one calendar year in Ontario. Expect each province to have their own rules for their Crown Lands.
Ontario link:
https://www.ontario.ca/page/camping-crown-land

#157 Euro Observer on 03.10.17 at 10:08 am

#144 pBrasseur on 03.10.17 at 8:01 am
The US richer than ever!

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.ca/2017/03/richer-than-ever.html

And as opposed to Canada this is not a house of card!

————————–

Yes, but what you hear/read here is the lie/ridiculous/annoying propaganda on how we in Canada live the American dream now, when US is in decline.

And how housing is actuallly more ‘affordable’ here with 1.5 mil shacks in GT than in US.

Total failure of media, regulators, financial and real estate indutsry. To degree of criminality,

#158 Patricia Mills on 03.10.17 at 10:17 am

Companies are leaving Canada, Investors do not want to invest in Canada, everyone in my circle HATE him. We all think he is so arrogant and just not in touch with us. How can we start a movement to get him impeached before he completely destroys Canada. He is so hated. Arrogant SOB. Release the Kraken ……

#159 i'd suggest. on 03.10.17 at 10:18 am

#122 good strategy until ur stock spikes to X+opt’n premium in which case you’re called out and left with less attractive alternatives to fill your magical basket.

-Bj

……….

i’d suggest studying/paper trading this strategy for monthly yield see if you’re comfy or not. There are some institutuonal papers out proven its effectiveness. Some mutual fund managers use the strategy to as a means to increase yield.

(kapadia/szado paper out of U of Mass)

this isnt some ‘new finding’. Etf’s are now available (BMO) for retail investors that want higher yield and are not interested doing it themselves.

BMO covered call canadian banks etf yields approx 5%. Yes, of course, in a bull market youre limiting captial appreciation . For a person SEEKING YIELD this is a strategy to consider.

#160 JimH on 03.10.17 at 10:24 am

#145 John of Grant on 03.10.17 at 8:20 am
in answer to #41 AJ
you write, “Not so fast. From IPCC….

“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm
====================================
You lifted this quote out of context and without a shred of understanding of what the authors’ are saying! Here is the complete bullet-point quotation:

“Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including development and exploration of long-term ensemble simulations using complex models. The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. Rather the focus must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally intensive and requires the application of new methods of model diagnosis, but such statistical information is essential.”

What the authors are saying is something like this; “… because of the system’s complexity coupled with our inadequate ability to narrow-down the many uncertainties present in projections and scenarios, which make it impossible to accurately predict the exact global temperature say in 2075, we should instead focus on the prediction of the ranges and scope of probabilities that the solutions provided by various models generate.”

The key word here is “probabilities”. Quantum Physics and Quantum Mechanics is today very comfortable dealing with probabilities; other branches of science are not always geared to this way of looking at the world.

The predictions of weather and climate we are most familiar with are definitive; on the nightly weather report, the ‘meteorologist’ says quite definitively that the temperature tomorrow is predicted to be “86 F in Tucson”. He does not say, “there is a 33% probability that tomorrow’s high will be 86 degrees; there is a 50% probability that tomorrow’s high will be between 85 to 87 degrees; there is a 75% probability that tomorrow’s high will be between 84 and 88 degrees; and there is a 99% probability that tomorrow’s high will be from 80 to 90 degrees”.

What the report you quote says quite clearly is that we can work to improve the range and scope of statistical probabilities even though we will never be able to nail with 100% certainty any long-term prediction. Therefore, we should be concentrating our work on the development and refinement of tools that will enable better models of statistical probability.

We can never predict with 100% certainty the exact position AND the exact momentum of an elementary particle at the same instant; this does not mean that such particles don’t exist! Similarly, although we can’t predict tomorrow’s high temperature and the amount of cloudiness with 100% certainty, it’s obvious that we are becoming much better at narrowing down the probable ranges of such states.

As the Executive Summary of the report you quote states quite clearly, “Further work is required to improve the ability to detect, attribute, and understand climate change, to reduce uncertainties, and to project future climate changes.”

To attempt to use this report to deny climate change is dishonest!

#161 DodgedBullet on 03.10.17 at 10:28 am

there must be real fear in the market – buying your first “home” should be a joyous time, not a time laden with grief and dread. What ever happened to “needs” vs “wants”? When did young people lose sight of what it means to be free.

Garth, you’ve helped me grow a near zero bank account balance to 400+ K in a few years.

I have two children with maxed out RESPs – my wife and I have Maxed out TSFAs and RRSPs – almost all self directed.

The freedom you have enabled in our family is staggering, we are often paralyzed by choice – its a great problem to have.

You are doing many Canadian’s a service, educating them on low cost options to invest in companies via index funds.

Thanks again.

#162 Euro Observer on 03.10.17 at 10:28 am

It seems we are going to hit the wall with 100 km/h.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-adds-15-300-jobs-february-full-time-135738867–finance.html

record increase in jobs (service sector and public administration….), inflation picks up and the lying coward at BOC can not increas rates. Idiot!

#163 Victoria D. on 03.10.17 at 10:30 am

A quote from a reader’s letter to you from 2010. I wonder whether she’s still giggling happily. Their 905 mansion would probably reap around 1.7-2.0 mil. now. I hope they DID NOT decide to rent to ‘ride it out’. But they surely lost a heap of money if they even waited a few months to buy.

‘Well, we finally put our home on the market. (Our interest rate is now down to 1.93%) We had it evaluated 2 months earlier and one realtor said $699,000 was the highest we should ask and another realtor said $729,000.  The higher of the two was the realtor we chose to list our home but on the day of listing he said we should got for between $749 -759,000.  We chose the higher listing price, and just received an offer of $750,000!  After some negotiations we ended up with a big deposit and a completion date that is a full 8 months away.
About an hour after the realtor left I began to giggle. My husband was confused so I explained, “Without realizing what we were doing, we just negotiated Garth Turner’s Bubble Buster #1.”
Well, Garth, I guess we’ll ride this out and see what the market does. We may rent. We may buy. But we’re going to find out how this bubble busts over the next 8 months. ‘

#164 Tater on 03.10.17 at 10:34 am

#122 good strategy until ur stock spikes to X+opt’n premium in which case you’re called out and left with less attractive alternatives to fill your magical basket.

-Bj

……….

i’d suggest studying/paper trading this strategy for monthly yield see if you’re comfy or not. There are some institutuonal papers out proven its effectiveness. Some mutual fund managers use the strategy to as a means to increase yield.

(kapadia/szado paper out of U of Mass)

this isnt some ‘new finding’. Etf’s are now available (BMO) for retail investors that want higher yield and are not interested doing it themselves.

BMO covered call canadian banks etf yields approx 5%. Yes, of course, in a bull market youre limiting captial appreciation . For a person SEEKING YIELD this is a strategy to consider.
——————————————————————
Sooooo, you put forward a paper that doesn’t include transaction costs? Ok, monthly return from that study was .53% vs buy an hold at .43%. And it required monthly trading in options. As an example, SP500 April Calls at 242 (about 2% ootm) are currently .37/.39, which is a 5% spread. The paper would say you are selling the option at .38, but you are only selling at .37. Those transaction costs will really hurt this strategy.

#165 Josh in Calgary on 03.10.17 at 10:45 am

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/td-bank-employees-admit-to-breaking-law-1.4016569

And just in case there was any doubt as to why you should learn to self invest please read this article. The financial industry is built on commissions and sales targets that force even good people to put the interests of the banks ahead of yours. Even [email protected] (The nice lady at the bank).

#166 IHCTD9 on 03.10.17 at 10:46 am

#143 Stock Picker on 03.10.17 at 7:42 am
Another major investor just pulled out of the oil sands. That 12 billion not creating jobs in Canada. This is the fourth international on the last twelve months. Hundreds of billions not paying taxes to Trudeaus legions of freeloaders. Be careful what you wish for. We’ll still have Alberta oil but none of the foreign investment meaning the deficits will skyrocket, taxes will go up, services will go down and poverty will become the new norm. Trudeau if he has a brain must be crapping himself cause the magic hole is done empty. Whoops…liberal dreams turn into liberal nightmares. Trudy pandered to Soros , Steyer and Tides for donations and end up with an impoverishment death spiral. If you voted liberal you deserve the poverty and lack of opportunity.
____________________________________

Canada can’t seem to get anything right these days when it comes to major resource extraction. Ontario has pissed away 100’s of billions over decades by dithering back and forth with the natives coming up on 7 years now. Every investor has sold out except for one. Now, commodities are a fraction of what they used to be. I expect another year or two and the last investor will throw in the towel, and say the hell with this bloody province. 7,8,9+ years of jibba-jabba, and all it’s done is cost everyone involved piles of cash for nothing. Welcome to Canada where we let activists make policy decisions and our pusillanimous brain dead politicians need 10 years of debate and inquiries before doing anything.

Now, business investment literally has a hot, steamy buffet of reasons to just get the hell out of Canada. They are finally packing it in, and I don’t blame them one bit.

Some of the most severely grey-matter deficient half baked witless lunkheaded yo-yo’s on the planet vote right here in Canada.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/arrested-development-a-searchable-database-of-billions-worth-of-stalled-blocked-and-cancelled-resource-projects

#167 Paul on 03.10.17 at 10:49 am

#157 Patricia Mills on 03.10.17 at 10:17 am

Companies are leaving Canada, Investors do not want to invest in Canada, everyone in my circle HATE him. We all think he is so arrogant and just not in touch with us. How can we start a movement to get him impeached before he completely destroys Canada. He is so hated. Arrogant SOB. Release the Kraken.
———————————————————-
The man is a parasite, But legal weed,opps

#168 IHCTD9 on 03.10.17 at 10:54 am

#155 Deano on 03.10.17 at 10:03 am
#124 Arnold Ziffle on 03.09.17 at 11:36 pm
#139 Ace Goodheart on 03.10.17 at 6:54 am
I camp a fair amount, there are rules for using Crown Land. One thing to note, you are not supposed to stay in one spot more than 21 days in one calendar year in Ontario. Expect each province to have their own rules for their Crown Lands.
Ontario link:
https://www.ontario.ca/page/camping-crown-land
______________________________________

You should look into Crown Land leases. Many guys here hunt and have a camp on a few hundred acres up north. they all pay a chunk and it is cheap and 20 year leases. Most have a permanent structure on the property, and I think the rules have changed on that – but still sounds like a good deal for a temp structure.

#169 IHCTD9 on 03.10.17 at 11:05 am

#160 comments re Ontario pissing away billions is in reference to the failing, 3/4 dead Ring of Fire development.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/ring-of-fire-talks-1.3955236

#170 Catalyst on 03.10.17 at 11:10 am

The finance ministers said he was concerned about new entrant affordability which could be interpreted many ways. If a tax is imposed, I think it is likely to accompany subsidies for first time homebuyers similar to what Vancouver did later.

I don’t think this is the catalyst for change as there needs to be serious movement in supply of homes, supply of credit, or reduced immigration for GTA to have any sort of downturn. I don’t see either 3 happening in the short term with perhaps only fixed mortgages raising in the medium term.

#171 pBrasseur on 03.10.17 at 11:16 am

Total failure of media, regulators, financial and real estate indutsry. To degree of criminality #156 Euro Observer

True enough, the good news is the more people think the US is decayed or in decline the more opportunities there are for investors wise enough to see beyond all the lies and noise.

The US economy is not perfect but it’s still the most formidable thing ever created by man, betting against thing is the most foolish and there are many fools, including inside the US.

#172 Victor V on 03.10.17 at 11:27 am

Canada’s jobless rate falls to two-year low as February brings a flood of full-time work

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-job-growth-soars-beyond-expectations-to-15300-as-full-time-hiring-jumps

#173 Arnold Ziffel From Green Acres on 03.10.17 at 11:31 am

#155 Yah the Queen Shows up…and says Leave or else we will do to you what our ancestors did to the competition…You know why they parade on a red carpet……? It’s their enemies blood…it instills fear..watch Brave Heart….not worried here…what she using a GPS and Sat Images LOL
Aint leavin the palace stayin on welfare…see the parallel

#174 my house is my friend on 03.10.17 at 11:34 am

“What the Hell is going on”
It looks to me like Trump has been handed a bucket of sh#t by his egotistical sociopathic boastful predecessor. Obama can now concentrate on his true passions – his NCAA pool and golf – while Trump is left to try and clean up a $20 trillion mess.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-09/what-hell-going-part-3

#175 Pre-retiree on 03.10.17 at 11:39 am

@#115 – Vit
— Ontario’s about to bring in a Chinese dudes tax of its own – a version of the one that dropped sales in Vancouver by 70% in many hoods, and has cratered the top end of the market—
What is the soures of this information ??????

The finance minister. — Garth
__________________________

The terse answer was really funny. It’s all over CBC and the newspapers….

And he is the source. Duh. — Garth

#176 Damifino on 03.10.17 at 12:07 pm

RE the implementation of a foreign buyer’s tax:

It should be a clandestine operation shouldn’t it? In Vancouver we woke up one day and it was here. Christy knew better than to prattle on about it beforehand.

Why is the Ontario government pussyfooting around? If you’re going to do it, then do it.

#177 good grief on 03.10.17 at 12:17 pm

Sooooo, you put forward a paper that doesn’t include transaction costs? Ok, monthly return from that study was .53% vs buy an hold at .43%. And it required monthly trading in options. As an example, SP500 April Calls at 242 (about 2% ootm) are currently .37/.39, which is a 5% spread. The paper would say you are selling the option at .38, but you are only selling at .37. Those transaction costs will really hurt this strategy.

……….

um, the BMO Europe high dividend covered call etf yields just under 7% INCLUDING fees.

BMO US Put Write ETF yields just over 7% INCLUDING FEES

cool? :)

again, this is a good strategy in an environemt of low yield.

anecdotally, i sell primarily calls on etfs (USD). Write puts when i want to enter an etf. My annual yield is greater than 7% with costs. It’s not hard. I don’t fiddle with individual stocks, out of my comfort zone. The strategy is a fun one which I enjoy doing. I keep in very simple.

#178 CTO on 03.10.17 at 12:20 pm

.#172 Victor V on 03.10.17 at 11:27 am

“Canada’s jobless rate falls to two-year low as February brings a flood of full-time work”

I would think that would be enough of a cue for Poloz to raise rates and start getting us out of this mess we are in.
Question is,… is he “the enabler”

My thoughts are that he should never have lowered rates to where they are,…ever.
I’m sure if the rate meter was set up like the tackometer on your car, it would have been in the redline at about 1% or lower.

#179 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 03.10.17 at 12:25 pm

#145 pBrasseur on 03.10.17 at 8:01 am

The US richer than ever!

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.ca/2017/03/richer-than-ever.html

And as opposed to Canada this is not a house of card!

—————————————————————-
Its certainly prudent to have a nation’s net worth high as possible. Asset stripping… just sayin. Median #’s would more accurately reflect the underlying picture I’d imagine even though I’m no math genius.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oligarchy#United_States

#180 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 03.10.17 at 12:47 pm

#45 Gulf Breeze
——————————————————————-
Haha! Well said! The “patriotism” I’ve seen and heard from all quarters/parties down here will make itself dangerous I fear as the socioeconomic fabric of our lives quietly changes while the squeeze on the average guy continues and creates yet more division amongst the ranks.

And thanks for your reply, much appreciated. Quite close what I was thinking of doing. Minus gold/tfsa since thats likely not possible for us at this point.

#181 John of Grant on 03.10.17 at 1:01 pm

#159 JimH

You lifted this quote out of context and without a shred of understanding of what the authors’ are saying!…To attempt to use this report to deny climate change is dishonest!
————————————————–

I understand perfectly well what the authors are saying. If Benoit Mandelbrot taught us anything, it is that non-linear models are inherently unpredictable due to initial conditions. From wiki, “some aspects of the weather are seen to be chaotic, where simple changes in one part of the system produce complex effects throughout. This nonlinearity is one of the reasons why accurate long-term forecasts are impossible with current technology.”
One of many.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonlinear_system

Nor can distributions of future states be predicted with any accuracy due to uncertainties surrounding initial conditions. Of course, the point predictions of the climate change alarmists are usually stated to a fraction of a degree, 100 years in the future. Complete bs.

#182 164- tater on 03.10.17 at 1:01 pm

yes transactions costs will have an effect.

in case you’re not aware;

BMO US Put Write ETF- yields in excess of 7% including fees

BMO Europe High Dividend covered call yields just under 7% including fees

again, terrific strategy to supplement monthly yield

#183 bdwy sktrn on 03.10.17 at 1:08 pm

#13 Mike in Calgary
Here’s what $21 million can get

I really don’t understand any of this any more.

///////////////////////////

A 256 sq metre apartment with two bedrooms overlooking the Seine in Saint-Germain-des-Prés is available for €13.2m through Knight Frank.

———————–
same price for an apt overlooking a filthy river in paris.

urban/ rural – world city vs not.
van.416 are now cities of the globe, not just canada.

cheap housing still available in 95% of the country.

looking at the price history of rural wa state(closer to van in the usa) , it was not just the cities that blew up in their ‘bubble’ .
all land, even the very rural , empty or otherwise went up at the hyper rate seen in our TWO cities only. (mtl is still cheap like dirt, oui?). down there EVERYTHING went up like a rocket – everything. (cities have recovered, but many rural lots are still well under 50% of peak)

our situation is clearly not a copy of the american experience.

my prediction: international cash will continue to arrive in container loads. low loon. gta c-dudes tax will cool the mkt , but like van, prices hold at all but the very top end.
without a large tax advantage vancouver once again beats toronto in every way possible;) so no more pink snow to be seen.

#184 Pre-retiree on 03.10.17 at 1:11 pm

On Garth’s advice and on the basis on this blog + the general financial climate, we decided to sell our house this year, and the deal was closed this February.
However, I am now worried about potential change to capital gain. We have live there for many years, and should be exempt. But are there any truth to the rumors that T2 and Morneay might change that?

#185 Tom from Mississauga on 03.10.17 at 1:21 pm

OMG, I got to hear what you have to say about this Garth.
Please!!!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/td-bank-employees-admit-to-breaking-law-1.4016569

#186 Pre-retiree on 03.10.17 at 1:21 pm

The terse answer was really funny. It’s all over CBC and the newspapers….

And he is the source. Duh. — Garth
___________

Yes, of course. And that is why it’s funny. I probably should have written “…AND it’s all over the CBC and the newspapers.”

#187 Iconoclast on 03.10.17 at 1:39 pm

#160 JimH

> To attempt to use this report to deny climate change is
>dishonest!

You must admit that anyone who says “The science is settled” is also being dishonest.

#188 For those about to flop... on 03.10.17 at 1:48 pm

This is another example of the stupidity still happening in Vancouver.

They are not in Pink Snow territory yet but they are working on it.

They paid 4.5 for this land with a 95y.o house on it just 50 odd days ago and immediately put it back on the market.

This is the second price reduction and as you can see they only waited a week this time to lop 400k off it.

All this in a neighbourhood that has 55% less sales yoy and the average sales price is down 27% this quarter.

Good luck ,guys…

M42BC

3811 14th Ave Vancouver

Mar 1:$5,380,000
Mar 9: $4,980,000
Change: – 400000.00 -7%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMDM2MQ==

#189 Tater on 03.10.17 at 1:53 pm

#183 164- tater on 03.10.17 at 1:01 pm
yes transactions costs will have an effect.

in case you’re not aware;

BMO US Put Write ETF- yields in excess of 7% including fees

BMO Europe High Dividend covered call yields just under 7% including fees

again, terrific strategy to supplement monthly yield
——————————————————————
You’re basically taking crash risk and getting lower returns than owning equities outright. Not sure it makes any sense.

US equities average 10% a year (including dividends). This strategy has the exact same downside and a lower overall rate of return. The cash flows might be smoother, but over 20 or 30 years, the return give up is massive.

#190 dosouth on 03.10.17 at 2:28 pm

“Ontario’s about to bring in a Chinese dudes tax of its own – a version of the one that dropped sales in Vancouver by 70% in many hoods, and has cratered the top end of the market. This pathetic blog told you some months ago it was being actively considered and now, apparently, it’ll happen….”

Good!

#191 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 03.10.17 at 2:35 pm

#65 Ace Goodheart on 03.09.17 at 8:42 pm

I remember back when I started running an experimental portfolio and I was tweaking it and figuring out how to make it consistent. I had a hard time talking to people about it, because everyone wanted to talk about how much their stocks had increased or how much they thought their stuff was worth.

I was more worried about monthly distributions.

I was trying to hit a constant number.

After a number of years of playing around with it, I remember I managed to get it to produce $500.00 per month, consistently, every month, no matter what month it was. I ran it like this for a year and charted it. I got between $500 and $550 or so each month, on a consistent basis.

I then upped the amount in the portfolio and ended up with $700 per month, again, consistently, every month, no matter what month it was or what time of year, and I managed to make it consistent. I ran it for another year.

I told people about this. What I got was to the effect “that’s not a lot of money”, “you’d get more on welfare”, “that’s it?”, “that’s not very good”. No one saw what I did.

From my perspective, it was like I’d discovered that the speed of light was not actually a constant and in fact could be increased to any amount. I had discovered how to put together a cash machine.

All I had to do, to get more every month, was to add more money to the machine.

I think more people have to look at investing this way. It is not how much your stuff is worth, or how much you could sell it for. It is how much it can provide you in free cash every month. Money that you don’t have to work for. Free money. Given to you, with no conditions, each and every month of your life.
——————————————————————
#148 Millmech on 03.10.17 at 8:28 am

#120 Diversification
Not worried about a crash,hoping for another great buying opportunity actually and I can always keep working even part time.My lifestyle expenses in post 65 years will be easily covered by government largess and small pension.
It’s all about the monthly expenses and if I wanted to today I could easily purchase real estate today but the valuations aren’t there.
Ace Goodhart posted well about the monthly income generated by investments which is the way I went as I have watched people get financially slaughtered by leverage in the past in the last downturn.
—————————————————————
#77 millmech on 03.09.17 at 9:08 pm

#154 Burnaby Guy 17-03-08
I have been renting for a long time now, putting away 50% of my income for years now, in three years good bye ever having to work again, will be financially independent before 50.
If I was an owner I would end up working until 65 because once the mortgage is paid off you have substantially less time for compounding to work its magic on your investment money(my compounding return is way more than what I put in) and as I posted before the ongoing monthly expenses of home ownership is likely twice what I am paying for rent.
I’m not against housing at all, heck once it melts down to a reasonable amount I will be buying my retirement home for cash as I will not pay a dime in interest to the banks.
—————————————————————–

Ace and Millmech:
What you both mention is what we want to do- after being burned by the last downturn I don’t want to touch RE with a ten foot pole. Hindsight is 20/20; blood sweat and tears to build something from raw trees into a house….log the trees, mill them -moving them by hand to the mill, no machinery just that ten foot pole I referred to above used as a lever…hand joining timbers….same pole used to heft that monolith stone you see at the mantel from the bush to its final resting place …. recipe for hurt when speculation and economic illiteracy were running the show back in 2007…led to years of thinking the same pole would be a good matchstick….The nice big red SOLD sign has a long drawn out, enmeshed, mismanaged, and overbudgeted history behind it and so by the skin of the teeth this chapter closes…

http://chamberlainpropertygroup.ca/real-estate-listings?view=property&layout=&id=493

Lesson learned. Everyone has a story now you know ours. If nothing a person’s resolution to never make the same mistake again is rock solid and that, so far, I think has been worth it-its what life’s all about after all.

PS. Despite the hardships, those times were as good as it gets. Nothing better than long days of solid hard work with those you love and in the Okanagan to boot when dreams were still rampant among us and there was a lake to dive into every evening. The subsequent chastening and cynicism so over rated ;)

So.

Ace and Millmech: I have The Ultimate Dividend Playbook, The Single Best Investment and The Intelligent Asset Allocator and intend to try to get through The Intelligent Investor. Any other recommendations / resources from either of you?

#192 Blacksheep on 03.10.17 at 2:44 pm

bdwy # 184,

“my prediction: international cash will continue to arrive in container loads. low loon. gta c-dudes tax will cool the mkt , but like van, prices hold at all but the very top end. without a large tax advantage vancouver once again beats toronto in every way possible;) so no more pink snow to be seen.”
————————————
Never looked at the GTA tax that way, but your reasoning makes total sense.

Just as the GTA played second fiddle to Van to begin with and only caught fire once Christy baby slapped the 15% tax in place to appease the disenfranchised, the money will soon flow back to the Pacific Rim that’s near and dear to certain foreign buyers hearts.

Sorry Van Vulture dudes, looks like patience, is still, the word of the day.

(see how I capitalized Vulture? you know, out of respect for these poor misguided souls.)

#193 cramar on 03.10.17 at 2:52 pm

This is mind blowing! List of U.S. companies that have produced at least 1,000% return if bought 8 years ago:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-stocks-have-soared-over-1000-in-the-bull-market-2017-03-10

Number one, GGP, is a real estate trust. Sure would have beat investing in RE itself.

Ah, hindsight!

#194 smoking girl on 03.10.17 at 3:05 pm

I don’t understand why millennials and Gen Xers are not protesting this insanity. When hard working professional couples making 150k-200k combined cannot afford a place to raise a family in an average house in an average neighborhood which cost 1.5m+ now, there’s a serious problem for the future of our city. Sure, the lack of supply and historical low interest rates are some of the root causes of the problem, but those issues cannot be tackled easily or in a timely manner. IMO, just a few measures will put the brakes on this runaway train of a market.
1) A foreign buyer tax of 15-20%, landed immigrants should not fall under the foreign buyer category.
2) A ‘flipper’ tax on any property bought and sold within a short period of time, ie 12 months.
3) A vacancy tax similar to the one implemented in Vancouver.

The opposing side to the foreign buyer tax keeps saying that there’s only 5% of foreign buyers in the GTA and there’s no impact to the housing price. If that’s true then why not just put out the tax? It damn well won’t negatively affect the 95% of the local buyers, and why are our elected officials are so concerned about the ‘5%’ non-residents instead of their constituents? So guess what, here’s more to the story: we have parties with a great deal of vested interest in the housing market (such as the OREA, realtors, builders, mortgage lenders, etc), what they also have is lobbying power and they all want this unhealthy market to keep going so they can make a quick buck. Well, I’m damned sure that they don’t represent the majority of citizens in the GTA, especially not young buyers trying to get a starter house to start a family. It’s time to let our voice heard instead of being pushed into being the greater fool.

It took years of protests by Vancouverites to get the foreign buyer tax implemented (remember the I don’t have 1mil movement? Better make it I don’t have 1.5mil these days) Let’s start calling our MPPs and municipal counselors, start petitions and organizing protects. If we don’t fight hard for our future in this city, no one will.

#195 AK on 03.10.17 at 3:07 pm

“#186 Tom from Mississauga on 03.10.17 at 1:21 pm
OMG, I got to hear what you have to say about this Garth.
Please!!!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/td-bank-employees-admit-to-breaking-law-1.4016569
——————————————————————–
Good Lord. Needed rubber boots and a shovel in order to finish reading this article.

TD stock is down over 4% today. Great buying opportunity.

#196 NoName on 03.10.17 at 3:08 pm

#38 Smoking Man on 03.09.17 at 7:29 pm

Garth why don’t you have a shin dig at the general store this summer. A meet up for all the dogs.

Everyone will win. I’ll bring up 3 signed books for what ever fans I have left. The lefy loons will get to punch me in the face.

And you will sell a shit load of ice cream.

Everyone wins..

Weekend before may 24 I’m thinking.

\\\\

How about if “someone” who is now employable and has lots of time on its hands, step up, and get go fund me page going for those outside of ontario. I’ll cover flop and mouth guard.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vv665kzZ2yY

Actually I am open to this idea. Free sprinkles for all Dogs! Who’s going to organize the buses? — Garth

#197 Millmech on 03.10.17 at 3:29 pm

#192
Millionaire Teacher pretty well covers it,Rockstar Finance is a good hub of info to work from,just do the basics
1-pay yourself first
2- invest the difference
3-leads to living below your means
4-spend 1hr a day learning, which could be money or work info,always keep your skill set up to date(luck is when opportunity meets preparedness)

#198 Londoner on 03.10.17 at 3:36 pm

TD shares are on sale today. Get them while you can :)

#199 dr. talc on 03.10.17 at 3:46 pm

TREB is correct, a tax would do nothing.
The Miller Tax affects every buyer, and it is severe: it had no impact whatsoever

#200 ShawnG in TO on 03.10.17 at 4:43 pm

SEC just shot down bitcoin etf

oh well, back to flipping houses for money

#201 Interstellar Star Stuff on 03.10.17 at 5:16 pm

#197 NoName on 03.10.17 at 3:08 pm

#38 Smoking Man on 03.09.17 at 7:29 pm

Garth why don’t you have a shin dig at the general store this summer. A meet up for all the dogs.

Everyone will win. I’ll bring up 3 signed books for what ever fans I have left. The lefy loons will get to punch me in the face.

And you will sell a shit load of ice cream.

Everyone wins..

Weekend before may 24 I’m thinking.

\\\\

How about if “someone” who is now employable and has lots of time on its hands, step up, and get go fund me page going for those outside of ontario. I’ll cover flop and mouth guard.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vv665kzZ2yY

Actually I am open to this idea. Free sprinkles for all Dogs! Who’s going to organize the buses? — Garth

Ice cream for 100 million readers plus their dogs… yikes!

#202 Smoking Man on 03.10.17 at 5:28 pm

#79 acdel on 03.09.17 at 9:11 pm
#67 Smoking Man

Thanks Smokie I appreciate that, it’s the busiest time of my season; believe me, if I could be there I would.
What a great time it would be to experience all the great ideas with all the great people and suck back a few brewkies!

All of you close to Garth’s location, pending on what Garth agree’s to.
What a great way to get some new ideas out there. The rest of us (or me) would really be interested in the outcome.
….

No worrys we can do a live broadcast on face book. So you won’t miss anything.

#203 Victor V on 03.10.17 at 5:33 pm

Steady U.S. Job Growth Sets Stage for Fed to Raise Interest Rates

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/10/business/economy/february-unemployment-jobs-report.html

#204 huh? on 03.10.17 at 5:37 pm

You’re basically taking crash risk and getting lower returns than owning equities outright. Not sure it makes any sense.

US equities average 10% a year (including dividends). This strategy has the exact same downside and a lower overall rate of return. The cash flows might be smoother, but over 20 or 30 years, the return give up is massive.

………

crash risk? same downside risk? selling ITM protects the downside.

anyway, you are missing the point.

for those seeking YIELD– want to increase monthly monies flow from a portfolio, that this is THEIR NEED, as opposed to capital appreciation over a 30 yr period. THIS is a good strategy . Why am i repeating myself?

especially given the current low yield environment.

#205 jess on 03.10.17 at 6:03 pm

Josh in Calgary on 03.10.17 at 10:45 am

http://www.wellsfargopropertyinspectionsettlement.com/

#206 maxx on 03.10.17 at 6:23 pm

Seems so much easier to manipulate people now than it ever was.

Those who obsess about, or live by FIRE…………..

Chicken Little looks tough by comparison.

#207 Anderson on 03.10.17 at 7:46 pm

“But would the tax just apply to 416, the cradle of modern civilization? Or the entire Burlington-to-Oshawa, six-million-strong GTA?”

lol. I’m sure there’s just tons of foreign buyers lining up to buy in Oshawa.

#208 Sir James on 03.11.17 at 1:10 am

JimH – You do realize all that argument is about is a simulation based on someone’s opinion, not reality???

The bomb proved quantum mechanics work, not that AGW is real.

#209 Bobby13 on 03.11.17 at 9:32 am

30 guy in Calgary compare the derivatives market size compared to the stock market all the real estate physical gold Bitcoin if you like etc and if you dig into how derivatives can work you will know.