Too good

Remember last March? Sure ya do. The doomers and nihilists were shedding all over this pathetic blog, telling you the world was going down for the count. There’s a lesson in here (of course).

Oil cratered at $27 a barrel. Wow, a 70% collapse. The Canadian economy was sinking too, actually in recession. The TSX was a mess. China was the big news – volatile markets, flaky leaders, rampant speculation by little investors. On the horizon was Brexit. Trump also (although he was too weird to take seriously). US data was weak. Markets were weak. The Fed looked weak. Negative yield bonds. Preferreds tanking along with rates.

What did I say then?

“The commodity price rout is likely overdone. After all, the value of oil, nickel, copper, grain and other stuff we all need has plunged to 1990s levels, completely illogical given the fact global growth is positive, not negative. Tanking prices for hard stuff were understandable in the dark days of 2009, but not now.

“The American economy is doing exactly what was forecast here – swelling methodically, steadily and predictably. In the end, it will probably drag the entire world to a better place, which will include higher interest rates.”

Well, it took twelve months. But here we are. Oil’s doubled. Financial markets are at record highs. Interest rates start rising in seven business days. Inflation, growth, profits and jobs – all up. China’s cool now. Trump may be a nutbar, but he’s a pro-business one. It’s catnip for investors. Even the shock of Brexit wore off in a few weeks. Le Pen is next – and populism’s becoming a yawner.

In short, the hairshirt guys failed. Things got better, not worse. People in cash or gold went nowhere. By the end of 2017, Bay Street was ahead by double digits, US markets gained 7% in two months and a balanced, conservative 60/40 portfolio had clocked 8.5%.

Of course, a detached house in Toronto did better, but it came with a mortgage, utilities, property taxes plus maintenance, while paying out no income and giving no realized capital gain. And with each passing day, that windfall paper profit grows a little more uncertain for those who have concentrated their wealth (and their risk) into a single asset.

Ironically, the big worry for Canadian homeowners should be that things will get better. My, what a difference a year makes.

In mere weeks the odds of a rate increase in March went from one-in-five to one-in-one. That rarely happens, setting the stage for three hikes in the next nine months. We haven’t seen that kind of Fed activity upward since 2005 – when the swelling bank rate played a key role in collapsing the US housing market.

Odds of a US rate hike next week are now near 100%.

Why is this taking place? Mostly because interest rates at one-half of one per cent are no longer needed or appropriate. They cause people to borrow excessively, inflate asset values and artificially stimulate the economy. Need proof? Look at Canadian housing market. Wages up 1%. House prices up 20% – just because mortgages are so damn cheap. In the US the Fed has determined that the data (growth, jobs, profits, incomes) is strong enough to allow the cost of money to move from ‘ridiculous’ to ‘sorta normal.’ Especially with Trump in the wheelhouse, about to chop taxes, stimulate GDP and make inflation great again.

Second, conditions around the world (the North Korean madman and ISIS excepted) are a lot less scary. Global growth is forecast to be a decent 3%. Suddenly China looks more mature and better governed than the US. The EU did not quickly die with the British vote to exit. It may even survive the overtly racist and wildly popular Marine Le Pen in France. Chinese factory production has recovered. More Europeans are working than at any time since the credit crisis.

So don’t be fooled. If the Fed pulls the trigger three times this year, the bond market will react strongly, and Canadian fixed-rate mortgages will rise. If our central bankers remain too timid to follow, the loonie will certainly suffer, bringing higher inflation and an erosion in the purchasing power of most people (remember $7 cauliflower?). Then eventually the Bank of Canada will also up its key rate, because that’s exactly what it’s done 92% of the time. You can bet against those odds, if you want. I wouldn’t.

Now, remember this chart? We personally owe $2 trillion. More than the economy. 65% in mortgages. The orange bars – out of control.

65% of our 2 trillion in personal debt is in mortgages

So the advice of recent days is repeated. If you’ve made a boatload of money on your house, cash it in. This is a one-time opportunity to find your own greater fool, turnng  transitory wealth into serious liquid assets and lifetime cash flow. The only way that’s not going to happen is if Donald Trump is impeached. That odds of that just jumped. I’m taking bets. You in?

186 comments ↓

#1 Mike in Edm on 03.06.17 at 6:24 pm

Meanwhile in Edmonton, 1 home builder has just started to offer to pay the first 2 years of your mortgage if you buy one of their homes. I heard another ridiculous home builder offer a few days ago as well, but can’t remember the details. I think it was something along the lines of ‘buy a home from us and be entered in a draw for a chance to win 5% of your purchase price back’… Maybe?

#2 Chinese on 03.06.17 at 6:25 pm

“China looks more mature and better governed than the US.”
Garth, you are either communist or blind to lack of freedom to make such a statement.

#3 Allan on 03.06.17 at 6:26 pm

Toronto’s problem is speculators. These numbers are insane, and these morons won’t even rent it out.

https://betterdwelling.com/vacant-homes-global-epidemic-paris-fighting-60-tax/

#4 BobC on 03.06.17 at 6:27 pm

But keep the bonds?

#5 you in? on 03.06.17 at 6:28 pm

The only way that’s not going to happen is if Donald Trump is impeached. That odds of that just jumped. I’m taking bets. You in?

So if Trump is impeached, turning transitory wealth into serious liquid assets and lifetime cash flow is not going to happen?

And the odds of Trump’s impeachment just jumped?

What are we betting on then?

#6 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 03.06.17 at 6:28 pm

poorold donny will be impeached soon
u cant b potus and fight with the cia and fbi

#7 Fish on 03.06.17 at 6:31 pm

I thought that cauliflower was 8 bucks or was it 10

#8 Greater Fool on 03.06.17 at 6:32 pm

PLEASE do yourself a favor and watch these videos!!!
They are from a university in the Netherlands and they will help to clarify EXACTLY what is going on in Canada.
They will only take 28 minutes of your miserable life, BUT you will never regret!

DEBT episode 1: Debt, a great invention:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_7HIxCg4is

DEBT episode 2: How bubbles grow:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyGKs-M8SeU

#9 S in MTL on 03.06.17 at 6:34 pm

Trump will probably be out before the September.

However I think all asset classes could be hit in the face if this happens. Pence replacing Trump is not the same as Ford replacing Nixon. If Trump is out, this would mean the whole election was void – what do we do then? Kasich vs Clinton?

As for the French, unless Juppé jumps in (he said he won’t), Macron will be France’s Trudeau – no experience but hopefully well surrounded. Le Pen has no chance in a two round system.

#10 Debtslavecreator on 03.06.17 at 6:36 pm

2020
-Toronto RE down 25-30 % in inflation adjusted terms
Nominal prices dipped 15-20 % from April 2017-July 2018 then recovered as trillions flow into North America out of Japan and Europe
– property taxes , user fees etc continue a wild rise
-unemployment exceeds 10%
-it costs $50 to visit a doctor unless you are unemployed , refugee or low income r
-Trudeau leaves office as most hated PM of all time as RE sellers realize the increase in capital gains tax to 75% and the upcoming lifetime Primary residence exemption drops to $ 300,000 and massive tax bills are destroying the value of people’s homes
-groceries for the average family of 4 have tripled in cost
-medical technology and automation create amazing medical advancement but leave many struggling for new careers
-sell RE now !

#11 Brian Ripley on 03.06.17 at 6:37 pm

I have my 6 big Canadian city SF Detached chart up now:
http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

Toronto is off the chain on an Eiffel Tower trip.

Notice also that the combined average sum price of a Vancouver, Calgary & Toronto condo is currently 49% (no typo) more expensive than a median priced Montreal SFD. The record previously was 41% in July 2016 (the Vancouver peak).

Is it time to learn French?

#12 AK on 03.06.17 at 6:40 pm

” The only way that’s not going to happen is if Donald Trump is impeached. That odds of that just jumped. I’m taking bets. You in?”
——————————————————————-
Sure. Just like the odds that he was not going to be The President. We all know how that ended.

#13 CL on 03.06.17 at 6:40 pm

Add to that the BIS has also called out Canada today for ridiculous insane real estate and Canadian debt loads at epic heights.

Don’t know what you mean by Trump impeachment, if so for what and why and it will have contradictory consequences for what you’ve just stated will happen if that happens. I Don’t think I’m reading it right.

#14 Vit on 03.06.17 at 6:41 pm

Australians are holding onto their homes and it’s starting to hurt real estate agents
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australians-are-holding-onto-their-homes-and-its-starting-to-hurt-real-estate-agents-2017-2

Looks like Sydney is the same situation as Toronto. Foren capital and local speculation made real estate market insane . Canada’s economy is very similar to Australian its based on natural resources so what goes in Sydney may follow in Toronto. So its a good market to check if you want to time this market . I really want to sell my house and pocket that $$$$$ but like we say in a stock market — Market can remain irrational much longer than you can stay solvent .-

#15 Euro Trash on 03.06.17 at 6:42 pm

Toronto is going down 50-60%.
SFH will soon be $600,000.
And they will only be able to get $3000 per month rent.

#16 Commies vs Trump on 03.06.17 at 6:42 pm

#2 Chinese

“China looks more mature and better governed than the US.”

Garth, you are either communist or blind to lack of freedom to make such a statement.

Garth is the typical naive old stock Canadian, sufficiently soaked in contemporary liberal-conservative globalist ideology.

In that framework the Communist China leadership is better than the USA with evil Trump.

#17 Euro Trash on 03.06.17 at 6:44 pm

Wait, that is no a bad cap rate.
Oh, well I tried.

#18 Cheap Houses on 03.06.17 at 6:46 pm

The odds of Donald Trump being impeached have jumped? Did I miss something in the news that President Trump has committed an impeachable offence? Illegally wire tapping the Trump Tower however, is an offence that can get Obozo thrown in jail.

No evidence. Trump jumped the shark. POTUS diminished. — Garth

#19 Ace Goodheart on 03.06.17 at 6:47 pm

RE: #4 BobC:

“But keep the bonds?”

Think of money markets like a bathtub. You tip it one way, all the money flows, like water, to that side.

Right now the tub is tipped towards stocks, away from bonds.

Tip it back the other way, the money flows back in the other directions, into the bond markets.

You want around 1/2 and 1/2 bonds and stocks (Garth says 60/40 in favour of stocks, I disagree with him, but it’s his blog).

Stock markets go up, bond markets go down. Stock markets go down, bond markets go up. Like water in a tub, tipped one direction then the other.

When you have an over valued stock market like the one we have now, what you are doing, is selling stocks and buying bonds.

#20 common sense on 03.06.17 at 6:54 pm

Mr. T:

Can you please comment on why nothing has been said in the media this time about upcoming March 15th US Debt ceiling?

Everytime in the past it has caused havoc in the markets??

Because nobody cares. It will come and go silently. — Garth

#21 RentYVR on 03.06.17 at 6:57 pm

“Then eventually the Bank of Canada will also up its key rate, because that’s exactly what it’s done 92% of the time. You can bet against those odds, if you want. I wouldn’t.”

I’d take that bet – what are you offering? (and don’t say a free subscription to this blog…)

#22 Cowpoke on 03.06.17 at 6:57 pm

You must be talking about obama and his gang. You know, the liberal mentally disabled ones.

At the federal level, Article II of the United States Constitution states in Section 4 that “The President, Vice President, and all civil Officers of the United States shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other High Crimes and Misdemeanors.”

Impeachment? Trump? Not likely.

#23 Robert LIS on 03.06.17 at 7:05 pm

The house hold debt levels in Canada and the behaviour of buyers will keep me away for quite a while. I’m comfortable where I am and would otherwise not be if I just bought a home in the GTA. Parents cashed out and moved out of the GTA. First time in their life in Canada they have been debt free. New house paid in full with Cash.

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.06.17 at 7:08 pm

@#4 BobC
Nah, bonds are so passe.
Sell everything and buy gold bullion.
Hide it under your socks in the bottom drawer of the bedroom dresser and relax….
No one would ever think to look there.

#25 Nik on 03.06.17 at 7:18 pm

Garth – if I do decide to cash in now and assume that CAD continues to erode while USD does better is my best bet to invest in less than 25% in Canadian ETFs/equities (and the rest in US and ROW)? According to you what are the chances for CAD to appreciate (again, thinking of scenario where oil prices go back to $70 – $80 in a year- I know it might sound unlikely but buying US stocks at a premium would be a risk if CAD has scope to appreciate)
Would appreciate if other blog dogs could weigh in as well

#26 Victor V on 03.06.17 at 7:19 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-06/trump-s-wiretap-tweets-raise-risk-of-impeachment

“Given how great the executive’s power is, accusations by the president can’t be treated asymmetrically. If the alleged action would be impeachable if true, so must be the allegation if false. Anything else would give the president the power to distort democracy by calling his opponents criminals without ever having to prove it.”

#27 SunShowers on 03.06.17 at 7:20 pm

I have a confession to make.

Last year I broke the Greater Fool credo and bought individual company stock. I vultched some preferred shares in big name petro/energy companies that were whacked by the low commodity values.

Not only did my portfolio handily beat real estate returns in Toronto and Vancouver for the year, but the dividends were nice too (reinvested into safe stuff to help offset the massive risk of buying individual stocks).

As always, thanks for the blog Garth!

#28 Smoking Man on 03.06.17 at 7:29 pm

Civil War if he’s impeached. He’s got the cops and the military. 60 million deplorables with Ar15

The left, Starbucks servers. Swap full of dirty political hacks and MSM.

#29 I'm Not Poloz on 03.06.17 at 7:36 pm

@ #25 Nick:

I’m neither Hon. Garth Turner or Poloz, but right now currently, BoC claims that even a 70-cent Loonie would be too overvalued to export.

Once the FED hikes rates to 1.00% next week, expect a 69-cent Loonie or even less.

If Poloz insists on April 12th that “There is no Inflation” while leaving rates at 0.50% or even cutting the rate to 0.25% or 0.00% “to boost exports”, then that loonie will likely go below 60-cents.

Poloz told me that he dreams of a $0.50 Loonie to boost exports and to develop the scumbag city of Toronto.

I’m not an investor, but a troll, so take my advice with a grain of salt.

I’m not Polo, but Poloz aims for a 0.40-0.50 Loonie in 2017. Trump doesn’t need to be impeached, Poloz needs to be impeached.

#30 fresh bulletin on 03.06.17 at 7:40 pm

#18 Cheap Houses on 03.06.17 at 6:46 pm

The odds of Donald Trump being impeached have jumped? Did I miss something in the news that President Trump has committed an impeachable offence? Illegally wire tapping the Trump Tower however, is an offence that can get Obozo thrown in jail.

No evidence. Trump jumped the shark. POTUS diminished. — Garth

Is this from the same bulletin which announced that “Hillary/Rubio is the ticket”?

You must be really connected to know that “no evidence”.

You must also have the evidence that gets Trump impeached.

In the mean time enjoy the list of proven Obama government wire tapping for everyone with short memory:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-06/here-are-top-15-obamagate-wiretap-victims

#31 GFC v2.0 on 03.06.17 at 7:44 pm

Seriously?

Anyone who believes gutting the Dodd-Frank Act by the President of the Alternative Facts of America will be beneficial to Deplorables in the long term has a pretty short memory (or you were born after 2008).

The wolves are already circling once again….

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/banks-ready-to-break-free-from-regulations-under-trump/article/2616353

#32 Linda on 03.06.17 at 7:44 pm

End of 2016 – 2017 isn’t yet over though it is going fast. Was trying to find some numbers for Toronto & Vancouver re: actual single detached homes. Data I found was 2011, but was Stats Can so presumably not hyperbole. Anyway, Toronto had not quite 821,000 SDH; Vancouver had around 192,000 SDH in 2011. Even presuming some healthy growth in new builds means that Toronto isn’t going to have a house for everyone that wants to buy, even if prices weren’t completely nuts. So maybe the prices will stay up despite any reason why they shouldn’t, because the supply is limited.

As for Trump being impeached, wait for the mid-terms. If the Republicans get slaughtered the chances Trump won’t make it through his first term will increase like – the price of a house for sale in Toronto!

#33 Cheap Money $$ on 03.06.17 at 7:44 pm

Debt, debt and more debt, that’s what’s driving all the bubble markets all over the world. The world has been binging on cheap money for so long, I am not sure this rooster will ever come home to roost. People don’t care, countries don’t care – everyone solves their problems by borrowing more! Maybe us prudent people are the stupid ones! I remember a time when debt scared people, not anymore. It seems like the game has changed and I seem to be using the wrong handbook.

#34 Old Salt on 03.06.17 at 7:49 pm

When I lived and travelled on my sailboat a big anchor was deemed a good thing to keep your boat in place through a blustery night or two, but never so big that you couldn’t haul it up and move on.

Why on earth anyone would want a lifetime of debt to anchor themselves indefinitely is mind boggling.

#35 Andrew Woburn on 03.06.17 at 7:51 pm

Why the Nice Lady at the Bank hates her job.

‘I will do anything I can to make my goal’: TD teller says customers pay price for ‘unrealistic’ sales targets

Maybe one reason not to punt the CBC. Are there any other media outlets willing to take on the banks?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/td-tellers-desperate-to-meet-increasing-sales-goals-1.4006743

#36 Gary on 03.06.17 at 7:51 pm

OK, you called the investment stuff right, but you really missed the boat on real estate prices.

It’s not over yet. — Garth

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.06.17 at 7:57 pm

@#16 Commies for Trump
“Garth is the typical naive old stock Canadian, sufficiently soaked in contemporary liberal-conservative globalist ideology.
In that framework the Communist China leadership is better than the USA with evil Trump.’
*******************************************

Let me guess .
A minor in Philosophy and Arts with a major in Political Science…?
Which begs the question.
“How good ARE the tips at Starbucks?”

#38 Nonplused on 03.06.17 at 7:57 pm

What’s the bet exactly?

Certainly there are a lot of people on the far left that want Trump impeached but what will be the basis? That he may have falsely accused Obama of wiretapping him? Even Obama doesn’t deny the wiretapping he just says he didn’t order any such thing. Fact is the NSA wiretaps everybody and just doesn’t review the stuff they aren’t interested in. I think they would have been interested in this especially given the Russian allegations at the time. It is almost certain somebody has a transcript of every Trump phone call during the latter part of the campaign.

Anyway if Trump does get impeached we get Pence. More of the same, don’t bother to wake up.

I find it hard to believe it will happen though. If they couldn’t impeach Bill Clinton, they are going to have a much harder time with Trump.

Also I don’t think the left has thought this through. They think that since right now they are the only ones setting fires at universities, they will be the only ones who will ever set fires at universities. Well, I wouldn’t “misunderestimate” the right like that. Just try and impeach Trump and see what happens. Time for your “Bad Day” plans.

Anyway I think the odds are higher Obama gets indicted than Trump gets impeached. Whether he ordered the wiretap or not, if he saw the transcripts or even had them verbally relayed to him he broke the law.

#39 Andrew Woburn on 03.06.17 at 7:57 pm

“Victoria real estate sees influx of offshore buyers – from Vancouver”

This is kinda what I thought was happening and it’s the same in Nanaimo as well. If you think Victoria is nothing but old people and Nanaimo is nothing but sawmills and bikers, you’re twenty years out of date.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/victoria-real-estate-sees-influx-of-offshore-buyers-from-vancouver/article34209638/

#40 bill on 03.06.17 at 7:58 pm

that dog looks like its at Jones lake…stumped apparently.

#41 bassrage on 03.06.17 at 8:13 pm

Garth, U.S. national debt is basically at 20 trillion now. Isn’t that higher than U.S. GDP for 2016? (a rhetorical question, of course). Not sure why it’s bad for the Canadian economy to be in an almost identical situation (comparatively speaking: house debt versus our actual economy), but not a problem for the U.S.

Please enlighten me

Sure. Sovereign debt is not personal debt. — Garth

#42 makingcents on 03.06.17 at 8:15 pm

You all may thinking I’m joking, but I am going to wait til the price of agricultural land is dirt cheap and make money selling cauliflower to you for mega bucks. Invest in farming technologies. Viva La Fleur

#43 Andrew Woburn on 03.06.17 at 8:15 pm

A San Francisco startup is 3D-printing entire houses in just one day

https://qz.com/924909/apis-cor-can-3d-print-and-entire-house-in-just-one-day/

#44 I think I know not on 03.06.17 at 8:18 pm

Rate hike? Not in Canada.

#45 Goldie on 03.06.17 at 8:23 pm

“Suddenly China looks more mature and better governed than the US…”

*snickers*

Well, I guess it is more mature so you are half right. ;)

#46 Fish on 03.06.17 at 8:25 pm

Can’t imagine what wild bill going to do shortly, perhaps drain the bathtub

#47 Goldie on 03.06.17 at 8:27 pm

#38, and the others:

If Trump’s impeachment, for which the left wet dreams, is viewed by his supporters as being contrived in any way, which is a real possibility, there will be some serious trouble down there. Those that only care about profiting from investments won’t be left unscathed either. Be careful what you wish for lefties.

The Obama tap tweets show a paranoid, impetuous, egocentric person in charge of the world’s biggest economy and military. Figure it out. — Garth

#48 jay on 03.06.17 at 8:28 pm

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/growing-number-of-migrants-renouncing-canadian-immigrant-status?google_editors_picks=true

#49 Commies vs Trump on 03.06.17 at 8:30 pm

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.06.17 at 7:57 pm

@#16 Commies for Trump
“Garth is the typical naive old stock Canadian, sufficiently soaked in contemporary liberal-conservative globalist ideology.
In that framework the Communist China leadership is better than the USA with evil Trump.’
*******************************************

Let me guess .
A minor in Philosophy and Arts with a major in Political Science…?
Which begs the question.
“How good ARE the tips at Starbucks?”

Your imagination is as limited as the space in the elevator where you are suffocating yourself with great pride of your greatest talent.

Is it your reading skill or your attention span that’s even worst?

#50 AK on 03.06.17 at 8:30 pm

#18 Cheap Houses on 03.06.17 at 6:46 pm
The odds of Donald Trump being impeached have jumped? Did I miss something in the news that President Trump has committed an impeachable offence? Illegally wire tapping the Trump Tower however, is an offence that can get Obozo thrown in jail.
“No evidence. Trump jumped the shark. POTUS diminished. — Garth”
—————————————————————–
How do you know he doesn’t have any evidence ?

Seriously, dude, don’t embarrass yourself (as difficult as that is). — Garth

#51 post #10..... on 03.06.17 at 8:32 pm

‘-sell RE now !’

nah. Increases are passed onto tenants. i’ve had some tenants that said, 50% of their pay cheque goes to rent. Crazy.

i have seen NO decrease in rental income in any of our properties. Ain’t selling anything. People ALWAYS need a place to live— :). Market could correct 30% and we’re still golden. Did we get lucky? i’ll let others decide

#52 Andrew Woburn on 03.06.17 at 8:33 pm

Another reason why owning sky is never quite as good as owning dirt.

“New rules allowing B.C. condo buildings to be sold without unanimous approval heading to Supreme Court”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/new-rules-allowing-b-c-condo-buildings-to-be-sold-without-unanimous-approval-heading-to-supreme-court-1.4003457

#53 Sovereign debt and government fairy on 03.06.17 at 8:43 pm

Sure. Sovereign debt is not personal debt. — Garth

I thought sovereign debt is paid off by collected taxes, not by the government fairy.

That’s very it gets very personal.

Whether it comes from individuals, companies – it affects the population or even the sovereignty of a country.

Just ask the IMF slaves living in various parts of the world.

Personal debt gets paid back. Sovereign debt gets serviced. — Garth

#54 Chaddywack on 03.06.17 at 8:49 pm

if fixed mortgages go up people have told me they’ll “just choose a variable.”

I’m not sure if the BOC will follow the US. It’s clear that the only thing that will save Trudeau’s government is to devalue the Canadian dollar in order to make Canada attractive for companies.

(Obviously though that assumption ignores T2 anti-business tax policies)

#55 Deep Thoughts on 03.06.17 at 8:52 pm

Would the algos and computers continue to trade stocks, bonds and derivatives with each other if powered by solar after a nuclear strike???

#56 Blacksheep on 03.06.17 at 9:00 pm

“The only way that’s not going to happen is if Donald Trump is impeached. That odds of that just jumped. I’m taking bets.”
———————————–
I cant speak to the credibility of the source, but he references some documents in print, from the main stream media.

You decide….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91fNfGjZdM0

That was funny. — Garth

#57 bigtowne on 03.06.17 at 9:01 pm

Bank of Canada Governor Poloz has no choice but to hold steady in the winter of our discontent in Canada. Down to one last tiny fraction or 25 basis points ….How do you sell an asset which is overvalued? You create the image the asset is a steal knowing in this overpriced market all the dogs will be out sniffing for that impossible to find overlooked and undervalued asset. The Governor must wait out the markets to sell his story and his asset….the Canadian loonie and the Canadian economy.

#58 Smoking Man on 03.06.17 at 9:02 pm

DELETED

#59 AK on 03.06.17 at 9:03 pm

#50 AK on 03.06.17 at 8:30 pm

Seriously, dude, don’t embarrass yourself (as difficult as that is). — Garth
——————————————————————–
Okay. Fair enough.

What odds are you giving on President Trump’s impeachment ?

#60 Sovereign debt and government fairy on 03.06.17 at 9:17 pm

#53 Sovereign debt and government fairy on 03.06.17 at 8:43 pm

Sure. Sovereign debt is not personal debt. — Garth

I thought sovereign debt is paid off by collected taxes, not by the government fairy.

That’s very it gets very personal.

Whether it comes from individuals, companies – it affects the population or even the sovereignty of a country.

Just ask the IMF slaves living in various parts of the world.

Personal debt gets paid back. Sovereign debt gets serviced. — Garth

Kicking the can down the road is a scary concept.

Some countries actually pay off their debt, balance their budget. I also suspect, that specific loans given to governments are not “serviced” for eternity, but they are actually paid off. From collected taxes.

No major country has retired its debt. A ‘balanced’ budget has nothing to do with existing debt, but the elimination of a deficit. — Garth

#61 Rook on 03.06.17 at 9:20 pm

Garth, is Victoria housing on your radar for a housing correction?
From the view down here, it looks like it will only go up and price my little family out forever. Oh, and nothing to rent either. We are on our ass yet again at the end of the summer.

#62 MF on 03.06.17 at 9:30 pm

#48 jay on 03.06.17 at 8:28 pm

Interesting article. At first it sounds ominous:

“More than 21,000 people with permanent resident cards who had the opportunity to become Canadian citizens have turned their back on the quest in the past two years. The highest number of “renunciations” are from citizens of China, India and South Korea.”

but then…

“Their children often remain in Canada to complete school and to begin their careers.”

“many people who renounce their permanent resident cards continue to return to gateway cities such as Vancouver and Toronto to visit their families as temporary visitors, especially on the increasingly popular 10-year visas.”

“A large number of these are so-called astronaut parents, who work offshore while their spouses and school-attending children remain in Canada, usually in urban centres, and own residential property, say the immigration lawyers.”

“Some have bought multiple properties. By renouncing their permanent resident status they can stay below the radar and avoid Canadian taxes.”

–So just as most have surmised. Money earned elsewhere, deposited right here in the Canada causing houses like my parents to be worth 1.6 million. If the poster of this article was intending to prove that Canada is less attractive to foreigners, boy was he wrong.

MF

#63 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.06.17 at 9:33 pm

Come on Garth! Trump might be a bit of a narcissistic blowhard but he sure ain’t an idiot. There’s no way he’s going to make a statement like that unless he has some kind of evidence. However, maybe he should have said there was an investigation of wiretapping going on and left Obama’s name out of it.

Nothing that happens in that paranoid country surprises me.

#64 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 03.06.17 at 9:35 pm

2016, what an awesome year for investing. Hopefully I and my clients see it again.

Canada NEEDS TO RAISE interest rates now, or our CAD will suffer as will our economy.

Canada cannot stand by and let the USA raise rates 5 times without us raising as well.

#65 Sitting on the toilet thinking on 03.06.17 at 9:35 pm

Wikileaks is releasing vault 7 year zero tmrw at 9 am. Interesting times we live in

#66 MF on 03.06.17 at 9:37 pm

#61 Penny Henny on 03.04.17 at 5:56 pm

I wish I could buy in Etobicoke. Zero chance I could afford it. Maybe your garage.

#145 Slim on 03.05.17 at 11:48 am

“But where would you live…

Looks like this insanity has hit Kelowna and area. Must be the weather.”

Good comment. That’s the thing. If your life is here in the GTA like mine is, what choices are there? To rent from someone and fork over 50% of your paycheque while they enjoy capital gains, or to take the plunge and at least pay off something my name is on. Believe me when I say no one cares about the size of mortgages or intends to pay them off. Why should we? Being diligent is not rewarded. Who cares.

MF

#67 Deplorable Dude on 03.06.17 at 9:45 pm

The Trumpinator dropped a tactical nuclear strike this weekend.

3D chess.

If there was any dirt on Trump, President Clinton would be in the oval office now.

He’s called the Deep State’s bluff…put up or shut up over the constant drip drip of Russian allegations….of which there is zero evidence. He knows this which is why he’s called a Congressional investigation into the whole issue.

It’s genius…either the wiretaps allegations are true (most probably) in which case Obama’s in deep do-do, or if false then the main stream media have been publishing fake allegations for months….he’s just kneecapped them, they are already tying thenselves in knots backpeddaling all their allegations.

Win/win for Trump.

Ohh and Wikileaks just dropped ‘Vault7’….lots of conjecture about what that contains!

Gonna be an interesting week…..

#68 TCContrarian on 03.06.17 at 9:48 pm

People in cash or gold went nowhere. By the end of 2017, Bay Street was ahead by double digits, US markets gained 7% in two months and a balanced, conservative 60/40 portfolio had clocked 8.5%. -GT

***********************************************

You really should relax about bashing gold, Garth. At least, if you’re going to knock it out of sheer bias, check the real numbers: gold ETFs were one of the best performing asset class in 2016.
I know, cause I own them (amongst many other holdings).

The last couple week haven’t been ‘fun’ though – although I have used the correction to increase my positions.

TCC

ps. I also added TLT (US long-dated treasuries bond ETF), but that doesn’t mean I’m a ‘bond-licker’ either!

#69 Penny Henny on 03.06.17 at 9:49 pm

yyyyayyyyyy!!!!
good for you.
From a happy Penny

#27 SunShowers on 03.06.17 at 7:20 pm
I have a confession to make.

Last year I broke the Greater Fool credo and bought individual company stock. I vultched some preferred shares in big name petro/energy companies that were whacked by the low commodity values.

Not only did my portfolio handily beat real estate returns in Toronto and Vancouver for the year, but the dividends were nice too (reinvested into safe stuff to help offset the massive risk of buying individual stocks).

As always, thanks for the blog Garth!

#70 cramar on 03.06.17 at 9:52 pm

“The only way that’s not going to happen is if Donald Trump is impeached. That odds of that just jumped. I’m taking bets. You in?”

———–

I figure the odds are 100% that there will be an impeachment proceeding during the four years. I figure the odds at 60% in 2017. I figure the odds for success now at about 50%. That could go up sharply depending on what stuff happens over the next months & years. He just cannot seem to keep his mouth shut or fingers from tweeting. As such he will be the author of his own undoing.

#71 sovereign debt is serviceable? on 03.06.17 at 10:08 pm

well of course, ask Japan………and greece…..

don’t worry, in the end citizens pay for the recklessness of govt

#72 young & foolish on 03.06.17 at 10:11 pm

“i have seen NO decrease in rental income in any of our properties. Ain’t selling anything. People ALWAYS need a place to live— :). Market could correct 30% and we’re still golden. Did we get lucky? i’ll let others decide”

Grandad ? is that you?

#73 Smoking Man on 03.06.17 at 10:12 pm

Deleted over a newly invented word.. it was good. Basterd.

That aside watch CTV fake news. Pumping the crap out of Canadian real estate. Pumping Donald Trump evil..

Same shit all the time..

Garth, globalism, one world govt can only work if we can read each other’s minds. 500k years away.

Right now. It would lead to tyrany. Absolute power crupts 100 % of the time.

Why can’t you see that. Jesus, I sent you a free book. Did you not make it to the second last chapter titled. Shlong Zumanga. .. the truth lies there somewhere.

#74 AK on 03.06.17 at 10:18 pm

#28 Smoking Man on 03.06.17 at 7:29 pm
“Civil War if he’s impeached. He’s got the cops and the military. 60 million deplorables with Ar15
The left, Starbucks servers. Swap full of dirty political hacks and MSM.”
——————————————————————
LOL. The left have Nancy Pelosi, Maxine Waters and Chucky Schumer to save them.

#75 ej on 03.06.17 at 10:22 pm

Garth,
I read the comments section only to get a kick out of you correcting deplorables. I am just waiting for Smoking Man’s correction….

#76 John on 03.06.17 at 10:22 pm

On the Ides of March, the 15th, Yellen will raise rates. It will be as boring as when she told us it was going to happen. If raising interest rates was going to prick the bubble, then she would not raise the rates. The US debt ceiling is hit on the 15th too. After a scresming hissy fit they’ll eventually raise the ceiling, like always, as all players need to feed their pet voters and the purchasing power of all that money will shrink. And shrink. If the stock market crashes, then like the Bank of Japan, the fed will directly purchase equities to prevent a collapse. Unfortunately, at some point, the ever shrinking purchasing power of the dollar, loonies or whatever, will move at an increasingly faster rate. At that point liquidity will suffer a seizure and that liquidity will freeze up. Interbank libor rate stuff will ice-nine and so on. China will devalue the Yuan or run out of dollars trying to not be labelled a currency manipulator. And so on. Then we get into trade wars etc. Until then, we can expect inflation. the rest is uncharted but likely will make you cry.

#77 Smoking Man on 03.06.17 at 10:24 pm

DELETED

#78 Ronaldo on 03.06.17 at 10:25 pm

#15 Euro Trash on 03.06.17 at 6:42 pm

Toronto is going down 50-60%.
SFH will soon be $600,000.
And they will only be able to get $3000 per month rent.
——————————————————————
Sure, and that would still be twice too much. Check the attached article from Globe and Mail.

We are currently in a massive real estate bubble that is going to pop and the consequences are going to be horrific. And that will affect all other markets. I can’t imagine what another year from now will look like but I suspect a whole lot different. What needs to happen soon is that banks cut off lending for speculative investments (houses). Until that happens, this party is not going to end until the last greater fool fails to show up for a bidding war.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/mortgages-and-rates/canadas-old-standards-of-housing-affordability-need-an-update/article27126408/

#79 Bank of Millenial on 03.06.17 at 10:30 pm

Wave cheap money goodbye everyone, bye bye!

#80 fishman on 03.06.17 at 10:32 pm

Gotta go with SM if the Trump is impeached. When Tito died the Slovenians, Croatians & Bosnian’s were yuppies driving BMW’s, vacationing on the Adriatic & shopping in Germany.The coastal elite. The Serbs were the landlocked peasants,poor,missed the post war western european boom. Serbian farm kids made up 90% of the Yugoslav army. Tito had sequestered millions of guns for a guerrilla war against Stalin. The most dangerous are those with the least to lose slathered with humiliation.
History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme.

#81 Smoking Man on 03.06.17 at 10:41 pm

A memory of my youth.

Meet a chic a bar I had fake id and she was the first.

She talked me into going to an after hours bar. It was a raving gay bar.. these things kept teasing me. Are you sure she is a she..

Frightend I pulled a Donald Trump.
No big package. I went home with her.

She was a she. Victory .

This song woke me up…

https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=Pw6NAowvO4U

I’ll never forget that moment…

#82 A Reply to #19 Ace Goodheart on 03.06.17 at 10:42 pm

You do know that, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, don’t you? (It’s called interest rate risk.)

Interest rates are more likely to rise than fall over the coming years.

#83 John on 03.06.17 at 10:44 pm

Sample of pricing inflation. Costco. Today… 3 steaks in in package. $37. Newest packages $50. Indeed. 6 steaks for $100. The tire department was Comatose. One guy was putting bicycles together, another was doing homework or paperwork and the third was chilling. No oil changes going on either. Gas prices varied from $.96/L at Costco and changed by $.02/L at Esso stations about 2 Km apart. Just suggesting that it seemed weird. Just like real time bidding wars on houses in sleepy Drayton, Ontario!! Looks like the inflation horse is testing the escape routes out of the barn. Can’t end well.

#84 im not buyin' what dey sellin' on 03.06.17 at 10:49 pm

100% fake news from BBC

Why getting sterilised in my twenties was the best thing I ever did

http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/item/1994debb-53ae-4f8a-8810-026e3dfb6d2c?ns_campaign=bbc-three&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=Sterilised

#85 Smoking Man on 03.06.17 at 10:58 pm

Nictonites were white. Universal thing.

https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=pHVVmyhwfbk

#86 John on 03.06.17 at 11:00 pm

So let’s talk inflation in Garth units: dog food. A case of cans has now doubled in the course of a couple of years. Same brand. Same quantity. Pound per pound, hot dogs are cheaper. As for quality, there’s more nutrients in one tin of the dog food than in a pouch of baby food. The stories about chicken missing in a chicken sandwich is about inflating the good stuff outa food. Like a 450sq ft condo for $500,000. That’s is being flogged as the latest living arrangement…. although it looks more like a gussied up closet. How can people save for retirement? Like what retirement? Garth you must have heard every story imaginable on this entire flipping mess.

#87 Herb on 03.06.17 at 11:05 pm

And on what grounds would Trump be impeached?

Do you think they would bother with death-by-a-thousand -cuts in the mainstream and social media if they had any hope of getting rid of Trump by other means?

#88 45north on 03.06.17 at 11:13 pm

Greater Fool: PLEASE do yourself a favor and watch these videos!!!

they are useful and interesting

Brian Ripley: your chart shows that Vancouver house prices are $1.6 million and Toronto’s are $1.2 million! I’d say Vancouver and Toronto will drop by at least 50%.

AK: Donald Trump: Sure. Just like the odds that he was not going to be The President.

Donald Trump becoming President was the greatest political upset in my life time.

#89 Ronaldo on 03.06.17 at 11:16 pm

#20 common sense on 03.06.17 at 6:54 pm

Mr. T:

Can you please comment on why nothing has been said in the media this time about upcoming March 15th US Debt ceiling?

Everytime in the past it has caused havoc in the markets??

Because nobody cares. It will come and go silently. — Garth
—————————————————————–

Too busy Trump bashing.

He’s doing a fine job of that himself. — Garth

#90 Maj on 03.06.17 at 11:17 pm

#63 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.06.17 at 9:33 pm

Your ignorance is astounding.

If Trump Tower was wire-tapped, it’s because Trump’s advisors were communicating with Russia and conversations were tapped as foreign intelligence. Obama could not have ordered it because it’s illegal for a President to do so. Or do you think Obama planted the wire-taps himself?
Another possibility: There was no wire-tap and Trump’s tweets were an impulsive reaction to the previous day’s Breitbart news story.
Either way, Trump is not fit to be President.

#91 WUL on 03.06.17 at 11:18 pm

What an awesome unbelievable year for politics watchers. Trump – a new “Muslim Ban” that the 9th Circuit Court tosses in the “Trump Bin”, a Battle Royale over Obamacare reform (potentially another defeat) and 3:00 a.m. Tweets.

The electorate in BC plugging their noses and electing Corrupt Christy and capitulating to the Vancouver Sun’s Red Scare and aided by her platform plank of “Rich Families First”.

Then to AB and the brawl between the two local yokels (Jason Kenney and Brian Jean) to form the new Hillbilly Lunatic Fringe Party.

No wonder Garth has sworn off politics.

Sadly.

#92 Self Directed on 03.06.17 at 11:18 pm

65% in mortgages. The orange bars – out of control.
……
uuh.. aren’t the orange and blue bars the same thing now thanks to the HELOC? It ain’t all mortgages… it’s cars… trips… wardrobes…. reno’s… could you use 600K? It’s sure going to get ugly when rates go up.

#93 Ronaldo on 03.06.17 at 11:20 pm

23 Robert LIS on 03.06.17 at 7:05 pm

” First time in their life in Canada they have been debt free. New house paid in full with Cash. ”
——————————————————————-
Smart people. Most will hang on and watch those illusionary gains evaporate into thin air. Happens every bubble.

#94 jay on 03.06.17 at 11:21 pm

#83 john How is this for inflation, regular gas today in Vancouver, .$1.35 a litre. http://vancouver.gasbuddy.com/

#95 Smoking Man on 03.06.17 at 11:25 pm

DELETED

#96 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.06.17 at 11:26 pm

#167 duonutzz on 03.06.17 at 4:42 pm
#121 BillyBob on 03.06.17 at 7:52 am

So I’m on layover in Frankfurt today, walking around in the cold rain by Frankfurt Main station. I believe I am looking at the future of Canada: more begging, homeless, desperate people on the street than I have ever seen in the last decade and a half of coming to Germany. Lederhosen and schnitzel, it ain’t. But the shawarma is cheap and plentiful.”
Don’t forget to mention the huge and dangerous red light district surrounding the station…..
————
Obviously, you’ve never arrived at Vancouver’s Terminal Train Station at Vancouvers Eastside.
Btw, I was a 16 year old student from Austria working at the Frankfurt train station and living on the Mosel Strasse (Center of red light district).
Best experience ever.

#97 Fortune500 on 03.06.17 at 11:29 pm

Um … the Director of the FBI has called bull on Trump’s claims. For the head of the FBI to say it’s untrue is pretty damning. And if there was even a shred of evidence don’t you think Trump would be the first to Twitter/Instagram/and Facebook the hell out of it to all of his followers?

Just provide the evidence and we can all let it rest. Otherwise, this is FAKE NEWS. Effective, distracting, but Fake.

The problem though is that, when playing in the big leagues, there are sometimes real consequences to making stuff up.

#98 Ace Goodheart on 03.06.17 at 11:36 pm

#82:

“You do know that, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, don’t you? (It’s called interest rate risk.)

Interest rates are more likely to rise than fall over the coming years.”

Yes interest rates and the prices of existing bonds move in opposite directions.

That is why I say purchase bond funds. Right now, issuers are having a lot of trouble selling their bonds as all the money has moved into equities. So you really have your pick of the crop. All very cheap. When the inevitable happens and this bull market turns back into a bear, investors will flock back to “safe” havens like investment grade bond funds. You just have to wait it out. New bonds are issued constantly. At the moment they are hard to sell.

#99 paulo on 03.06.17 at 11:46 pm

Odds the Trumpinator gets impeached – ?

Odds that he decides he doesn’t need this s**t and
Resigns: Likely much higher than above.

#100 NOTHING SURPRISES on 03.07.17 at 12:11 am

We’re Canadian Snowbirds in the U.S. watching the Trump circus perform.

It will just be a matter of time for impeachment to gain a serious footing based on Trumps mental instability and his criminal business activities become fully exposed.

He is totally unbalanced and he and his organization are immersed and connected to world wide corruption as is being shown on a daily basis here.

Americans are truly afraid.

#101 april on 03.07.17 at 12:13 am

#67 – Someone just mentioned that the New York post wrote “B.O. is scheming to sabotage T….p’s presidency”.

#102 april on 03.07.17 at 12:14 am

#61 -Victoria is also correcting according to Canadian source.

#103 LS in Arbutus on 03.07.17 at 12:38 am

Flop

Check out this one.

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?areatitle=&ARPK=&ComID=&agentid=&MLS=R2130874&rowc=7&rowp=6&BCD=GV&imdp=9&RSPP=5&AIDL=27&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=False&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=0&MNBD=0&PTYTID=5&MNPRC=700000&MXPRC=200000000&SCTP=RS

$400k below assessment.

This would have sold for $4.2 million last summer.

LISTED $3.650.

So $550k or 15% off peak, and $400k or 10% off assessed. That’s a lot of money! And it’s not yet sold…

#104 Stock Picker on 03.07.17 at 1:20 am

How does it work if your balanced portfolio kicks off 8.5% when a person needs to consistently draw down a monthly income from guys like youse? I’ve been forced to manage my own pile because ‘advisors’ can’t tell me how to draw down income or the inflection year where funds go negative. Honestly, the “we averaged ‘X’% over three years” talk never shows how cash gets back into the clients hands……any simple answer?

Sure. Get a better guy. That’s basic financial planning. — Garth

#105 Suede on 03.07.17 at 1:45 am

Bloomberg could fudge their charts and 99% of analysts wouldn’t notice

#106 BillyBob on 03.07.17 at 2:06 am

#96 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.06.17 at 11:26 pm
#167 duonutzz on 03.06.17 at 4:42 pm
#121 BillyBob on 03.06.17 at 7:52 am

So I’m on layover in Frankfurt today, walking around in the cold rain by Frankfurt Main station. I believe I am looking at the future of Canada: more begging, homeless, desperate people on the street than I have ever seen in the last decade and a half of coming to Germany. Lederhosen and schnitzel, it ain’t. But the shawarma is cheap and plentiful.”
Don’t forget to mention the huge and dangerous red light district surrounding the station…..
————
Obviously, you’ve never arrived at Vancouver’s Terminal Train Station at Vancouvers Eastside.
Btw, I was a 16 year old student from Austria working at the Frankfurt train station and living on the Mosel Strasse (Center of red light district).
Best experience ever.

====================================

Yep in my uni days I volunteered at UGM near Hastings and Main so I’m well familiar. Just saying that from personal observation that the situation in Germany has increased dramatically. And it wasn’t a dig, but a lament.

Incidentally, trying to use a bad situation to minimize another is just a weak rebuttal.

#107 Crazyfox on 03.07.17 at 4:34 am

Totally in Garth, put me down for impeachment. This is what I’ve taken in today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7syMuG66r4E

For political junkies out there who know we are in unprecidented times, In the 8 minute mark, we get acquainted with Micheal Hayden in the link above:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Hayden_(general)

Hayden is a former NSA director (1999 to 2005), former Principal deputy director of national intelligence (2005-2006), and former director of CIA.
There are plenty of pundits who wouldn’t know what’s going on if you asked them and their job is to spin but Hayden not only knows how the system
works, his answers would be in the nation’s best interests one would hope.

So the question of FISA warrants comes up:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Intelligence_Surveillance_Act

The answers are complicated when it comes to U.S. intelligence itself when one considers all of its intelligence agencies that can actually pursue
a FISA warrant for surveillance and who would know about such warrants specifically:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Intelligence_Community

The answer is, once one understands the structure, simple. Other than agents, lawyers and judges, the directors know and ultimately know the results of
surveillance and those results end up in the hands of a few, the directors and deputy directors of each agency, the atturney general, the director of National Intelligence and that’s pretty much it and if the directors don’t share their information and the elected branches of government don’t request for the existence of such investigations, the elected branches of government won’t know.

Enter Paul Manafort, former Chairman of the Trump Republican presidential election campaign, forced to resign in August of 2016 after a ledger was
found in the Ukraine in a safe belonging to pro Putin Viktor Yanukovich pointing to $12.7 million in payments to Manafort over 5 years. This brought 5 investigations against Manafort from the CIA, NSA, FBI, director of National Intelligence and a little known bureau of the Treasury department:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_Crimes_Enforcement_Network

What do they do? Investigate crimes relating specifically to money laundering, terrorist financing and other financial crimes and this is where
investigations can go well past Manafort and into Trump’s past financial deals abroad with nations associated with money laundering, terrorist
financing and other financial crimes and they can be investigating any number of Trump’s past campaign help along with ministers from Manafort to Wilbur
Ross, Trump’s commerce secretary:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilbur_Ross

Or stories like this one breaking:

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/13/donald-trumps-worst-deal

If the print is tiring, you can find the interview of the journalist’s 3.5 months of work here and Rachel arguably makes a good case:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfU9bS0HCUY

Two names caught my eye yesterday, one from real time with Bill Mayer on Feb 17th and his name is Malcolm Nance, 2017 pretty funny actually. What
Nance claimed is that there are 4 FISA’s underway into Trump/Russian elections at 10:45 of the link below (the entire link is funny but has foul language just so readers know).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cDLflyQ8TA

Nance’s bio is found here and its important to mention him because he’s primetime on Bill Mayer and MSNBC:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Nance

Is he for real? Then there is this guy:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-russia-collusion-campaign-us-spies-nsa-agent-considerable-intelligence-a7613266.html

If what John Schindler is saying is true, its likely over for Trump. Schindler, a known former spook in Conservative circles with books out, Schindler has scandal on him, (he sexed his junk to a woman that wasn’t his wife) but that was a couple years ago and now he’s getting back on his feet. If he’s right, it has me wondering which intelligence agency will get Trump impeached first. CIA? FBI? NSA? FinCEN? A director of U.S. intelligence? Foreign intelligence? For what, money laundering? Violating the foreign corrupt practices act? Old fashioned bribes or indeed, collusion with the Russians to compromise a
U.S. election? Or, basic unhinged demagoguery, Malignant Narcissism and most basic forms of discrimination fed by an egomaniacal superiority/inferiority complex? Which one will get Trump impeached first? That’s what I want to bet on, that’s where the action is :)

Anyone got fresh popcorn? :D

#108 Oragano on 03.07.17 at 4:43 am

“Either way, Trump is not fit to be President”

Enlighten the deplorables… who’s fit?

#109 OMERS on 03.07.17 at 7:34 am

Whats a boatload of cash? That is only good if your about to retire! If your young your going to sell only to buy another over priced house which is usually bigger and more money? Doesn’t make sense to me, I must be missing something.

#110 PokerCat on 03.07.17 at 7:37 am

@ comment #60 by Sovereign debt and government fairy :

“Some countries actually pay off their debt, balance their budget. ”

Not sure about balancing their budget, but Britain is great at paying off its debt in a timely fashion! It only took almost 300 years! [/sarcasm]

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/…/that-debt-from-1720-britains-payment-is-coming.html

#111 BobC on 03.07.17 at 7:41 am

#100 nothing surprises

No idea where your staying but I’m in Indiana and it’s the compleat opposite here. Trump supporters seem to be growing and becoming more vocal.
Everybody in getting real sick and tired of the daily political bullshit though. Nobody believes either side anymore.

#112 Julia on 03.07.17 at 8:11 am

65% in mortgages. The orange bars – out of control.
……
uuh.. aren’t the orange and blue bars the same thing now thanks to the HELOC? It ain’t all mortgages… it’s cars… trips… wardrobes…. reno’s… could you use 600K? It’s sure going to get ugly when rates go up.
********************
I also thought that HELOCs were considered consumer debt, not mortgages.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.17 at 8:32 am

@#108 Organo
“Enlighten the deplorables… who’s fit?”
********************************************

A monkey would be more qualified than Trump.
At least when it spoke people would expect to hear gibberish as opposed to hearing it from the POTUS.

#114 neo on 03.07.17 at 8:34 am

Garth, U.S. national debt is basically at 20 trillion now. Isn’t that higher than U.S. GDP for 2016? (a rhetorical question, of course). Not sure why it’s bad for the Canadian economy to be in an almost identical situation (comparatively speaking: house debt versus our actual economy), but not a problem for the U.S.

Please enlighten me

Sure. Sovereign debt is not personal debt. — Garth

********************************************

What you are forgetting is US consumer debt is at $12 trillion which is considerably less than US GDP. Moreover, on a relative basis that $12 trillion is the equivalent of $1.2 trillion to Canada’s $2 trillion consumer debt so any way you slice it we are in far worse shape.

#115 A Reply to #66 MF on 03.07.17 at 8:58 am

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” — Albert Einstein

#116 Contrarian Coyote on 03.07.17 at 9:04 am

#38 Nonplused on 03.06.17 at 7:57 pm

Technically, Clinton was impeached by the House of Representative, but acquitted by the Senate because of the failure to get 2/3 majority vote for removal from office.

#117 Gonkman on 03.07.17 at 9:24 am

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.17 at 8:32 am

A monkey would be more qualified than Trump.
At least when it spoke people would expect to hear gibberish as opposed to hearing it from the POTUS.
——————————————————————–

We have no right to complain on who the American People chose to lead them.

Morons here voted for Surfer Dude with good hair who promised Rainbow Unicorns and Lollipops for all.

Now it seems like the IDIOTS who voted for him are FINALLY realizing he has no clue WTF he is doing.

You think Trump is worse than a Monkey? Well then what does that make our “Uh and Umm and Ahh… ” Speaking Prime Minister?

His only solution so far it so spend money outside of Canada.

I am thinking Turdeau is a Monkey who Huffed to much Paint?

Now if only all the Loony Lefties would STOP protesting… and do something productive.. like say… Start a Business or GET A JOB.

I don’t know who else has all this time to Protest… they must be un-employed.

#118 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 03.07.17 at 9:28 am

BUYER BROKERAGE AGREEMENTS MANDATORY JANUARY 1, 2017

“Starting January 1, 2017, the Nova Scotia Real Estate Commission will require all brokerages to sign a brokerage agreement with buyers who agree to be clients of their brokerage. This move is aimed at enhancing consumer protection by improving transparency between the brokerage and buyer by clearly outlining expectations at the time they agree to work together.” – Nova Scotia Real Estate Commission.

More Provinces as following Alberta’s lead

#119 Bottoms_Up on 03.07.17 at 9:31 am

#11 Brian Ripley on 03.06.17 at 6:37 pm
—————————–
You’ll pay higher taxes in Qc. Ottawa still has reasonable prices for SFD, and its only a short drive to enjoy the best of Montreal.

#120 45north on 03.07.17 at 9:35 am

Arbutus: $400k below assessment.

Ross Kay talks about sale price compared to assessment. I cannot think of a better measure of where real estate is going.

CrazyFox: put me down for impeachment.
that got my attention

#121 Euro Observer on 03.07.17 at 9:36 am

Intersting article on cell phone data usage:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tell-us-what-are-your-best-money-saving-tips-171107667.html

Similar situation with cable TV providers – have to pay over 100 CAD monthly + taxes for decent package and specialty channels.

It seems everything is designed for maximum pofts extraction with minumum service.

#122 Euro Observer on 03.07.17 at 9:37 am

world of oligopolies (they own you) and no customer portection.

#123 45north on 03.07.17 at 9:38 am

Manchester by the Sea:

best movie I’ve seen for awhile

Casey Affleck totally carries it.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4034228/?ref_=nv_sr_1

#124 Euro Observer on 03.07.17 at 9:42 am

The mortgage is the anchor, once you sign it then come the goodiess associated with it, various land taxes, fees, etc, making it imposible to sell, enslavement through a mortgage.

What is wrong with fullly paying house with savings (e.g. no mortgages) and house prices of 250 k in GTA?
Is that not more affordable than 1.5 mil houses?
Just asking.

#125 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 03.07.17 at 9:50 am

And the British Columbia Superintendent of Real Estate is aiming to abolish Limited Dual Agency (Double Ending) within a couple months.

I support the elimination of Double Ending and Buyer Agency Agreements.

#126 cramar on 03.07.17 at 9:50 am

#94 jay on 03.06.17 at 11:21 pm

#83 john How is this for inflation, regular gas today in Vancouver, .$1.35 a litre. http://vancouver.gasbuddy.com/

——————

I don’t think it is inflation, just greed. Another reason to get out of Snowcouver.

Here affordable housing, green grass all winter, double digit temps often, and cheapest gas prices outside of Alberta. Currently 89.8. Second lowest in all Ontario-just behind a First Nation station (nice tongue twister).

http://www.ontariogasprices.com/

#127 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 03.07.17 at 10:03 am

#36 Gary on 03.06.17 at 7:51 pm
OK, you called the investment stuff right, but you really missed the boat on real estate prices.

It’s not over yet. — Garth

Of course it’s not over yet… life goes on. It (the market) will rise and fall and then rise and fall again, and again and again.

It does’t take a rocket scientist to predict this imbalance in the market will correct. The tricky prediction is determining WHEN.

#128 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 03.07.17 at 10:05 am

and to what magnitude

SHIFT happens. Learn to ride the tide };-)

#129 not 1st on 03.07.17 at 10:10 am

Garth, I am surprised you are not more happy this week. It was marketed by a significant group of younger people getting invested for the first time.

Isnt that what you preach?

Too bad if all went into the SNAP ipo. Guess you need to polish your pitch some more.

This group of people are seriously the most ill informed of the last 250 yrs. They buy stupid stuff, get in debt up to their ears and vote for higher useless taxes on themselves.

The boomers are just salivating right now. They cant believe there is a group of people who will buy their overpriced home and support their entitlements willingly.

#130 Wayne Groe on 03.07.17 at 10:11 am

Garth,
Would you care to support your claim that Marine LePen is overtly racist?

Did you want to insult Donald Trump’s successful (orders of magnitude more successful than you)children again?

You must be doing something wrong when even the liberals didn’t want you!

Did you watch her interview on 60 Minutes? No doubt remains. — Garth

#131 A Reply to #19, #98 Ace Goodheart on 03.07.17 at 10:24 am

Why can stock and bond prices not rise together from a drop in the market interest rate and vice versa? There are other asset classes besides stocks and bonds (e.g., cash and gold). Money flows to its best use.

Bonds may be bought and sold at any time in a secondary bond market; a bond may sell at a premium or discount to its face value, mainly depending on its yield, its quality, and the market interest rate.

Do you own a bond fund? Not to belabour the point, but what will happen to the value of your bond fund when its average coupon rate is less than the market interest rate? Do you know the coupon yield, current yield, and yield to maturity of your bonds?

How do you know that, “[w]hen the inevitable happens and this bull market turns back into a bear [your words],” investors won’t sell their equities for cash or gold (rather than bonds)? How do you know that investors already in cash, bonds or gold won’t sell some or all of those assets to buy lower-priced equities?

#132 James on 03.07.17 at 10:27 am

#28 Smoking Man on 03.06.17 at 7:29 pm
Civil War if he’s impeached. He’s got the cops and the military. 60 million deplorables with Ar15
The left, Starbucks servers. Swap full of dirty political hacks and MSM.
_____________________________________________
You’re a senseless goof but then that is a celebrated factoid here. It is not a question of “if Trump is impeached” but more a question of “when Trump is impeached.” He is loose, reckless, lies consistently and is not the real meat and potatoes behind the curtain. Donald Trump is junk food or should I say fake food. People like Reince Priebus, Stephen Miller, Kellyanne Conway, David Bossie pull the strings and Steve Bannon is his silent partner providing him with in-plausible conspiracy theories. Trump is a master manipulator of the media and the truth is whatever Trump decided it should be! Not what the truth really is.

#133 Smoking Man on 03.07.17 at 10:33 am

On wire tap issue.
This is going to blow up this week

http://www.youngcons.com/2-obama-secret-service-agent-shares-info-on-wiretaps-its-going-to-blow-wide-open-this-week/

Wiki leaks
Boom CIA has a back door to every device.
…..

Calling all deplorables let’s start a Briebart Canada. MSM is so un watchable . There is a market void to fill.

The fake-news market? — Garth

#134 JimH on 03.07.17 at 10:34 am

#81 Smoking Man on 03.06.17 at 10:41 pm
“A memory of my youth.
Meet a chic a bar I had fake id and she was the first.
She talked me into going to an after hours bar. It was a raving gay bar.. these things kept teasing me. Are you sure she is a she..
Frightend I pulled a Donald Trump…”
================================
You long ago ceased to be amusing, Jackass!

This post of yours takes you to a new low. You’ve been working your whole life to become just another disgusting dirty old man.

Practice does indeed make perfect. At last you’ve arrived.

#135 IHCTD9 on 03.07.17 at 10:56 am

“What you are forgetting is US consumer debt is at $12 trillion which is considerably less than US GDP. Moreover, on a relative basis that $12 trillion is the equivalent of $1.2 trillion to Canada’s $2 trillion consumer debt so any way you slice it we are in far worse shape.”
_________________________________________

One thing is for sure – Canada’s Federal and Provincial debts will become impossible for us to service long before the USA starts having trouble paying their interest.

That will be the SHTF moment if there can ever be one. Interest on debt becomes the number one expense for Federal and Provincial tax revenues. More than education, more than healthcare. Taxes go up for no other reason than to pay interest on debt.

The rhetoric will be flying in those days – and we’ll then find out just how stupid the Canadian voting public really is…

Seriously, I don’t see a savior on the horizon. Politicians and Canadians themselves do not seem to care about what happens to your welfare state when its entire operating budget comes a distant second behind paying huge interest payments on a mountain of debt.

#136 For those about to flop... on 03.07.17 at 11:22 am

#103 LS in Arbutus on 03.07.17 at 12:38 am
Flop

Check out this one.

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?areatitle=&ARPK=&ComID=&agentid=&MLS=R2130874&rowc=7&rowp=6&BCD=GV&imdp=9&RSPP=5&AIDL=27&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=False&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=0&MNBD=0&PTYTID=5&MNPRC=700000&MXPRC=200000000&SCTP=RS

$400k below assessment.

This would have sold for $4.2 million last summer.

LISTED $3.650.

So $550k or 15% off peak, and $400k or 10% off assessed. That’s a lot of money! And it’s not yet sold…

////////////////////////////////////

Hey LS, Yeah it looks around 2 months since the last reduction so they are being made to wait.

At least they have a decent product to sell,not some old rotten heap.

It wouldn’t surprise me if when it eventually sells that the buyer is already a Westside resident who decides to use this downturn to update their digs to something more modern with less maintenance.

I wrote on here before while all the homeowners were high-fiving their paper equity gains last Spring some of the developers I work with were not happy as it pushed them into the next price bracket for a block of land.

There are a couple of developers who had projects on the go towards the end of last year that are above the 10m range so it will be interesting to see what they decide to do going forward.

Shaughnessy, the city’s most prestigious hood has only had 3 houses sold in the last 2 months.

My hood of Fraser was ice cold over the holidays but has heated up the last week or so ,but you can get a detached house in the 1.5 range.

Some of the flips around my house have sold ,but they hardly made any money so it is hard to see them doing it again,that’s a lot of work and risk just to make 50/100k.
Some people had made a lot more by doing nothing the last few years.

It seems like condo projects are full steam ahead but it will be interesting to see what happens with the residential market, both new builds and flips and what impact it has on employment in the next year or so.

I could be out of a job but I’m not concerned as a new Timmies has just opened on Fraser st…

M42BC

#137 cramar on 03.07.17 at 11:27 am

Global survey has Canada as 2nd best country in the world (behind Switzerland)!

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/us-news-unveils-best-countries-rankings

#138 bdwy sktrn on 03.07.17 at 11:30 am

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/us/politics/trump-russia-associates-investigation.html?_r=0

————————-
why would trump need to present evidence when it was published on the front page of the NYT over a month ago?

#139 Oragano on 03.07.17 at 11:30 am

“A monkey would be more qualified than Trump.
At least when it spoke people would expect to hear gibberish as opposed to hearing it from the POTUS.”
—————————————————————

Very interesting…

You meant to say mother Merkel would make a better president. She’s the founder of “open borders” imposing it to the rest of Europe. Free housing, free health care, free, free, free… How is it working out? What is a country without borders.

Earlier february in West Edmonton Mall, a refugee sexually assaulted multiple under age kids and yet it’s politically incorrect to criticize it.

Just before Obama left office, he banned refugees from Cuba. I don’t recall any protest from the same lefty ninja violent street thugs or any mouth piece from MSM.

I’m starting to see the true colors of the left.

#140 Deplorable communications on 03.07.17 at 11:34 am

#133 Smoking Man on 03.07.17 at 10:33 am

On wire tap issue.
This is going to blow up this week

http://www.youngcons.com/2-obama-secret-service-agent-shares-info-on-wiretaps-its-going-to-blow-wide-open-this-week/

Wiki leaks
Boom CIA has a back door to every device.
…..

Calling all deplorables let’s start a Briebart Canada. MSM is so un watchable . There is a market void to fill.

The fake-news market? — Garth
..
Jimbo smoking stooge.. reporting live from BS central! day-in day-out

#141 Oragano on 03.07.17 at 11:36 am

“Civil War if he’s impeached. He’s got the cops and the military. 60 million deplorables with Ar15

The left, Starbucks servers. Swap full of dirty political hacks and MSM.”
——————————————————————

I, now, see the reason for the second amendment. I used to think otherwise.

#142 Ogopogo on 03.07.17 at 11:43 am

Meanwhile, in the deluded Okanagan, a realtor is interviewed on CBC last night and spews the same tired old nuggets about “everyone wants to come here,” even as the chart shown on the screen immediately thereafter displayed YOY sales were down in the double digits for February.

And realtors wonder why we hold them in a lower esteem than brothel janitor…

#143 A Reply to #113 crowded on 03.07.17 at 11:46 am

Warren Buffett agrees with you.

“Trump has asserted his success as a businessman qualifies him to lead the country, but Buffett . . . said Trump lost money the only time he went to the American people and asked them to invest.

“He said it was in 1995 when Trump listed his Trump hotels and casino resorts on the New York Stock Exchange. He said the company lost money every year for the next decade.

“‘A monkey would have outperformed Trump’s company,’ Buffett said. ‘[In 1995,] if a monkey had thrown a dart at the stock page, the monkey on average would have made 150 percent,’ he said.” — Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-buffett-idUSKCN10C3AS

#144 Euro Observer on 03.07.17 at 11:48 am

#135 IHCTD9

I am not sure whether we are talking about the same state (welfare state?), I never got that impression or any releive or tax break/benefit from it, on the countrary, my taxes kept increasing year after year.

No state dental or drug benefits with supposed ‘free health care’ system I ended up paying multiples of 5 digts fees for going frequently to the states and that with a good family doctor!

From now on we will just pay taxes and expect nothing which is in a way better, as it removes the illusions.

The purpose of the state and taxes it seems always was to accumulate debt and ensure it is serviced through taxes, not to provide services.

And to provide some cozy protection to the owners of this place – the oligopolies.

Nothing new under the sun.

#145 Damifino on 03.07.17 at 11:50 am

#109 OMERS

“Whats a boatload of cash?”
—————————————

I’d say anything over $500K tax free would constitute a decent boatload. For a younger person that would be a dandy start towards growing their wealth into a full trainload which would allow them to jump off the treadmill while plenty of quality years remain.

A boatload of money is an exceeding rare thing to come upon in life. Most people just don’t know what to do with themselves when a ship laden with cash docks at their port. The best they can do is load it all onto another boat and push it back out to sea. That’s the method of the greater fool.

Those who heed the essential message of this blog literally ‘capitalize’ on their great luck by realizing they now have their hands on some real money and take steps to protect and grow it. They start doing the same thing those who lend money to greater fools are doing.

#146 Rainclouds on 03.07.17 at 11:58 am

#63Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.06.17 at 9:33 pm
Come on Garth! Trump might be a bit of a narcissistic blowhard but he sure ain’t an idiot. There’s no way he’s going to make a statement like that unless he has some kind of evidence.

Uhhhhh genius, He is a grifter. A flim flam artist. its called deflection as in “look A Squirrel”! Tax returns? Naaa! Gonna be interesting watching him pound his cheeto coloured head head into the immovable object called government inertia. He is done. The Donald’s words “Your fired” may be replaced by “I quit”

Maybe this will help you stop checking for rodents.

http://digg.com/video/stephen-colbert-trump-diagram-putin-p

#147 For those about to flop... on 03.07.17 at 12:19 pm

Hey Broadway since you’re on here ,do you wanna help me cross these ones off my Pink Snow list?

850 w 6th ave Van.

3406 Mons Dr. Van.

505 Rupert st.Van

787 Slocan st . Van

11240 Bird Rd Richmond.

1005-33065 Mill Lake Rd Abbotsford

Most likely some them escaped by selling and passing on the transaction cost to the next Crealiever ,but they wouldn’t have made what they thought they were going to get a year ago.

No real reason to sell at a big loss at this stage of the cycle.

Help me out ….you know I’m gonna find out eventually…

M42BC

#148 dsw on 03.07.17 at 12:29 pm

“China looks more mature and better governed than the US.”

This looks like unhinged stuff Garth. Better step away from the MSM for a while? Btw do you have links to China?

Your investing stuff is good to read (minus the housing talk) though, so much appreciated ;-)

#149 Patrick on 03.07.17 at 12:36 pm

Do you think SF Bay Area prices will also be significantly affecting by the coming rate increase?

#150 Renter's Revenge! on 03.07.17 at 12:39 pm

Yet another reply to #19 Ace Goodheart:

Your “bathtub” model implies a correlation of -1.0 between stocks and bonds.

According to Google Finance, Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA:BND) has a Beta of -0.04

Therefore, your bathtub model is inaccurate.

You need to change your model to fit the data.

#BecauseScience

#151 dsw on 03.07.17 at 12:57 pm

“Uhhhhh genius, He is a grifter. A flim flam artist. its called deflection as in “look A Squirrel”! Tax returns? Naaa! Gonna be interesting watching him pound his cheeto coloured head head into the immovable object called government inertia. He is done. The Donald’s words “Your fired” may be replaced by “I quit””

Nice casual racism – “cheeto coloured head”

Are Cheetos a race? — Garth

#152 jess on 03.07.17 at 1:19 pm

presidential immunity
“Does holding the office of President give someone the ability to say whatever they want about whomever they want?”
Nixon v. Fitzgerald or Clinton v. Jones

==============
March 6, 2017
High Frequency Trading in the Trump Era

White-collar criminologist Bill Black sits down with the Real News to spell out how the ballooning HFT industry works exactly, and where it’s headed under President Trump
http://therealnews.com/t2/story:18589:High-Frequency-Trading-in-the-Trump-Era

========

http://wallstreetonparade.com/
Systemic Risk Among Deutsche Bank and Global Systemically Important Banks
germany June 10, 2016
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-03-07/deutsche-bank-targets-returns-in-new-turnaround-plan/cr16189.pdf
===========

We are unlikely to spot next financial crisis, Bank of England official says

MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe tells MPs that central bank’s financial models ‘are just not that good’ for predicting even a recession

#153 John of Grant on 03.07.17 at 1:23 pm

Yet another reply to #19 Ace Goodheart:

Your “bathtub” model implies a correlation of -1.0 between stocks and bonds.

According to Google Finance, Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA:BND) has a Beta of -0.04

Therefore, your bathtub model is inaccurate.

You need to change your model to fit the data.

#BecauseScience

———————————————————

According to Bloomberg, the correlation between SPX and BND is -.165. In general, when bonds go up, stocks go down, just not in a 1 to 1 fashion. What your optimal mix would be depends on your risk tolerance as expressed by your indifference curve. Where it touches the capital allocation line will give you your mix.

#154 Victor V on 03.07.17 at 1:27 pm

More millennials grappling with high debt loads, says bankruptcy trustee

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/genymoney/millennial-home-buying-could-lead-to-insolvencies/article34173773

Dave Bryant, a Toronto-based mortgage broker, spends a lot of his time talking millennials out of buying homes. “It has cost me business,” he admits.

He says most of his younger clients have between $20,000 and $30,000 in student debt, have low-paying jobs or work on commission – which means their earnings can vary wildly year to year.

But despite being laden down with debt, many still aspire to home ownership. “Most millennials are looking to buy the preconstruction condos,” says Mr. Bryant, following the advice of a realtor who tells them it’s a good investment plan. Armed with a down payment from their parents, they then apply for a letter of preapproval for a mortgage.

And that’s where they run into trouble, he says.

#155 IHCTD9 on 03.07.17 at 1:38 pm

#144 Euro Observer on 03.07.17 at 11:48 am
#135 IHCTD9

I am not sure whether we are talking about the same state (welfare state?), I never got that impression or any releive or tax break/benefit from it, on the countrary, my taxes kept increasing year after year.
_____________________________

When I say welfare state – I mean Canada in general. Lefties and feminists have expended the efforts of a generation to arrive where we are now with legislation, Unions, public institutions, services, DB pensions, benefits, drug plans, and social safety nets of all kinds for the betterment of various groups and society in general.

It’s not hard to foresee an unraveling without another 2000-2006 real soon. Easy to see actually. No one in the above SJW camp seems to understand this though. Maybe they don’t do math or money (or read the news)

I’ve not received anything from the welfare state either, as I am of the wrong demographic on every conceivable front. Thus, I hope they don’t mind my contributions thereof have tanked severely as of last year.

I guess it’s another reason to pay them less, and hasten the very likely insolvency that appears to be coming. It’s a full time job keeping up with all the new fees and offsetting them all – one-by-one.

Canadian SJW’s probably will not see the reality of the situation until they are foraging in the bush for something to eat…

#156 bdwy sktrn on 03.07.17 at 1:45 pm

flop/limp

sales since jan 01.
??=no show

850 w 6th ave Van. ??

3406 Mons Dr. Van. ??

505 Rupert st.Van ??

787 Slocan st . Van – over 1.225

11240 Bird Rd Richmond. – under 1.25

1005-33065 Mill Lake Rd Abbotsford – at ask

#157 Thanks Garth on 03.07.17 at 2:00 pm

This blog applies 1980s market analysis (like income/price ratio) to a globalized real estate market and wonders why market fundamentals seem to stretch indefinitely out of wack.

I’d laugh if not for the fact that I came to my senses too late and missed out on one in a generation opportunity.

#158 bdwy sktrn on 03.07.17 at 2:19 pm

wooohooo
we’re getting uber!!!!!

it’s a cristy bribe!!! but only if we toss the ndp to the curb once again . sounds reasonable.

#159 For those about to flop... on 03.07.17 at 2:28 pm

pm
flop/limp

sales since jan 01.
??=no show

850 w 6th ave Van. ??

3406 Mons Dr. Van. ??

505 Rupert st.Van ??

787 Slocan st . Van – over 1.225

11240 Bird Rd Richmond. – under 1.25

1005-33065 Mill Lake Rd Abbotsford – at ask

///////////////////////////////

Thanks Broadway,you are the only way I can show people what is going on in real time.

Some people want me to wait 6/9 months but that information is not as useful then in my eyes.

From your numbers and what they bought them for.

One made around 100k or so after costs.

One roughly broke even within 10k or so.

One lost money but likely less than 100k.

I think one of the others just sold in the last couple of days.

I guess the other ones just got taken off because they did not want to take a loss.

Some of the ones that had negative numbers during the holiday period have simply been taken off the market waiting for a miracle from Cabbage Patch Clark…

M42BC

#160 NoName on 03.07.17 at 2:30 pm

#80 fishman on 03.06.17 at 10:32 pm

When Tito died the Slovenians, Croatians & Bosnian’s were yuppies driving BMW’s, vacationing on the Adriatic & shopping in Germany the coastal elite…

Serbian farm kids made up 90% of the Yugoslav army.

Lets start from beginning, Tito was a CRIMINAL, 600 000 Croatians perished under him, and probably another 500 000 more of “random” kvislings people of all ethnic groups. What is interesting that he did “encouraged” mainly Croatians to live ex. Yu by not giving them jobs, so they left, west Germany was country of choice, but it was funny when they start coming back with “lots” of money in late 80s and early 90s when economy was bascet kase.
—–
Slovenians, Croatians & Bosnian’s were yuppies driving BMW’s, vacationing on the Adriatic & shopping in Germany the coastal elite.

Thing is when serbs displaced all tose people by war many went to western europe so that managed to settle and to have some money for vacation, during falling a part of Yu serbia had yuge problem with inflation, so basicly only viable employer in serbia was war machine and criminal organizations

—-
The Serbs were the landlocked peasants,poor,missed the post war western european boom.

You got that wrong, Serbian farm kids never made 90% of yougoslavian army, correct is serbian farm kids made 90% of officers in the ex Yu army they threated other ethnic soldiers like crap, until other ethnic groups started avoiding to join by late 80, and early 90s just before ex Yu “thing” started splitting apart. Serbia is now land locked, but that is more or less as of recent, since 1918 they have enjoyed benefits of Montenegro and Croatian coast and ports for decades but they over looked that one…

—-

Tito had sequestered millions of guns for a guerrilla war against Stalin.

That was what history book was saying, nothing but propaganda, lots of mith about tito only thing he wasn’t was an Astronaut, just because he wasnt interested in space travel. guerrilla warfare is only viable option against occupying force.

—-

Everything about yougoslavian army was a mith, to much posturing not enough substance… As per us estimate in 70s Yu army was ranked 4, but I’ll tell you something funny, automatic rifle were not being issued until late 70 an early 80. Until than more than half of primary arms was WW2 mauser type bolt action rifle and automatic ww2 surplas of left over os russian garbage… question is How can so powerful army lost w ar to an army where main issued was weapons slingshot…

That vacationing thing during comunisam rule, big and mid size corporations owned “resorts” use that word very lusly, everyone else went for vacation how long he would pay, generaly finance for it up front, there was always big cash crunch first half of the year because families were paying loans to tourist agencies for that year summer vacation.mainly private accommodations aka bed and breakfast type… Hotels were reserved for for elite eshalon of komunists corrupted gov officials, directors of companies and homesick diaspora with some purcesing power.

Thing or two about “economic boom” of late 60s and early 70s, what is interesting that he (tito and his cronies) did “encouraged” mainly Croatians to live ex. Yu by not giving them jobs, and making sure that passports are “working” with western europe, so many people left, west Germany was country of choice, but it was funny when they start coming back with “lots” of money in late 80s and early 90s when economy was bascet kase.

Try reading a bit about Serbia under Milosevic, whole country was run by cartels for decade, look in to ass sas in tion of serbian president zoran djindjic, who and why he was killed.

And small addendum about bo sn ia just google youtube video of “alija izedbegovic 7 brigada” and see what video and flags come out, there is real posibility that if you are christian in that country probably best thing would be to leave, but that is just my IMHO.
alija izedbegovic – was former president of Bosnia. Funny flags, uniforms you will sea ant not funny vords you will hear…

\\\\\

#28 Smoking Man on 03.06.17 at 7:29 pm

Civil War if he’s impeached. He’s got the cops and the military. 60 million deplorables with Ar15
The left, Starbucks servers. Swap full of dirty political hacks and MSM.

1 in 10 American is diabetic, I wonder did diabetes measuring strips and insulin cross their minds…

watch this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNgwqleRxxM

#161 Penny Henny on 03.07.17 at 2:33 pm

House prices in Toronto are going fricken crazy. In boring Etobicoke 1200sq ft 1950’s bungalows are now cracking 1.2 mil. Incredible!

#162 Les Misérables on 03.07.17 at 2:49 pm

#140 Deplorable communications on 03.07.17 at 11:34 am
#133 Smoking Man on 03.07.17 at 10:33 am
On wire tap issue.
This is going to blow up this week
http://www.youngcons.com/2-obama-secret-service-agent-shares-info-on-wiretaps-its-going-to-blow-wide-open-this-week/
Wiki leaks
Boom CIA has a back door to every device.
…..
Calling all deplorables let’s start a Briebart Canada. MSM is so un watchable . There is a market void to fill.
The fake-news market? — Garth
..
Jimbo smoking stooge.. reporting live from BS central! day-in day-out
___________________________________________
My god you sound like a Smoking Dick protege! Ick another Smoking Twat!

#163 april on 03.07.17 at 3:07 pm

#161- Humans can be such idiots. Think of the Dot.com stock bubble of 2000.

#164 Cheap Houses on 03.07.17 at 3:15 pm

#18 Cheap Houses on 03.06.17 at 6:46 pm
The odds of Donald Trump being impeached have jumped? Did I miss something in the news that President Trump has committed an impeachable offence? Illegally wire tapping the Trump Tower however, is an offence that can get Obozo thrown in jail.

No evidence. Trump jumped the shark. POTUS diminished. — Garth

*******************************************

No evidence of wiretapping – because the world has access to the same intelligence as POTUS. But yet we are tripping over ourselves with all the evidence of Russian hacking. Oh wait.

#165 Lee on 03.07.17 at 3:16 pm

Drive up Willowdale Blvd. in Toronto between Sheppard and Finch (North Toronto). Nothing rebuild listing for under $3.5 Million. These are lots that were bought for $1M to $1.2 M within the last couple of years and are now coming to market after being knocked down. They are what is keeping the average SFH in Toronto shooting upwards. Without these rebuilds I would guess the average increase the last three years in TO for SFH’s would be closer to 5% a year. The thing is, there are another twenty rebuilds in this area in progress. Will there not come a day when if everything is a new mini-mansion, they would have as much value. I am just saying, who cares to own one if everyone has one.

#166 Les Misérables on 03.07.17 at 3:27 pm

Dam do these nincompoops get their news from from people like Joel Pollak at Breitbart News or InfoWars? If you believe those guys then you better be running for the hills as Aliens are running the world and Elvis was just spotted at the 7-11 with a piece of chicken in his hand and a coke in the other. What a crock of imbeciles these people are. I bet they read the National Inquirer ever day as well.

#167 Derek Stanfield on 03.07.17 at 3:52 pm

I have been out of any investments, no stocks, no REIT’s, no ETF’s, no bonds, no mutual funds, no real estate, nothing.

I am piling up cash on average $10,000 a month for the last 48 months and have close to $493,000 siting in various 1.7% to 1.8% savings accounts and RRSP’s, TFSA’s.

It looks too risky to do anything right now. I will just continue to pile up cash and see what happens the next few months or year.

It looks like a big downturn is coming in Canadian, American real estate, stock markets, bond markets and other markets.

Even if I don’t invest in anything, I will be at $1 million in less than 5 years and have no debts, no big mortgage too worry about. Renting 3 bedroom 1,800 square foot house for only $2,000 a month all utilities included.

If anything decent in bonds come with 4% to 5%+ yields I might do that later on. They keep saying interest rates are going up but they have fallen so much that it does not matter much anymore.

In the last 48 months your cash could have growth by about 40%. Some strategy. — Garth

#168 Euro Observer on 03.07.17 at 3:55 pm

#157 Thanks Garth on 03.07.17 at 2:00 pm

‘globalized’ real estate market?
-buyers are from Canada
– they have no money so here comes CMHC. private debt more than GDP for 1st time ever, most of it – in mortgages.
– buying substandard units – cornflake houses, glass condos
– because of the great weather and the world class appeal of Brampton and Mississuga?
– and the ‘free’ health care.
– and the ‘great’ infrastructure.

Hahaha, you are delusional my friend,

———————————

#161 Penny Henny on 03.07.17 at 2:33 pm
House prices in Toronto are going fricken crazy. In boring Etobicoke 1200sq ft 1950’s bungalows are now cracking 1.2 mil. Incredible!

As I said my friend, stop fluoridating the drinking water.
Enjoy the moment, it won”t last long.

#169 Euro Observer on 03.07.17 at 3:57 pm

#163 Lee on 03.07.17 at 3:16 pm
Drive up Willowdale Blvd. in Toronto between Sheppard and Finch (North Toronto)

That place is driveable It was probably 1 a.m.?

#170 Victor V on 03.07.17 at 4:00 pm

OECD boosts outlook for Canadian economic growth, but flags housing market as risk

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/oecd-boosts-outlook-for-canadian-economic-growth-but-flags-housing-market-as-risk

The OECD flagged Canadian house prices, particularly those in Vancouver and Toronto, as a risk in a report it released last June on Canada. That concern remains, with the OECD on Tuesday reporting that Canada’s house price-to-risk ratio is at its highest level since 1980.

In Tuesday’s economic outlook, the OECD questions whether advanced economies have put too much stock in keeping interest rates low for an extended period of time. The OECD said this has led to higher levels of debt and inflated asset prices. Canada, Australia, Sweden and the U.K., in particular, have experienced a rapid rise in house prices, the OECD said.

“Vulnerabilities remain in some advanced economies from rapid house price increases,” the OECD said. “As past experience has shown, a rapid rise of house prices can be a precursor of an economic downturn.”

#171 TurnerNation on 03.07.17 at 4:08 pm

Haha Inflewenza live on BNN right now.

See y’all at the PDAC party tmr.

#172 rainclouds on 03.07.17 at 4:09 pm

#151 DSW
Nice casual racism – “cheeto coloured head”

Poor confused social justice warrior, You REALLY wont like this then……………

http://www.eonline.com/uk/news/404629/donald-trump-drops-5-million-orangutan-lawsuit-against-bill-maher

Or this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyifuNC0MT8

#173 FutureExpatriate on 03.07.17 at 4:20 pm

Trump will be impeached, or resign a la Nixon.

Count on it, he did Trump Hotel business with Azerbaijan’s most corrupt leader, who himself made billions from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

That’s a big crime, and he and his entire empire will go down for it. IF he survives the next few months.

And that doesn’t even take into account campaign collusion with Russian intel under the inane belief that it was “just business”.

#174 Lee on 03.07.17 at 4:39 pm

#169, Euro Observer

It was about 11:30 a.m. Traffic was fine, maybe because of the rain. Traffic is really not that bad in the area by noon.

#175 Smoking Man on 03.07.17 at 4:55 pm

It’s not left vs right any more.

It’s globalists vs Nationalists.

Chose your team

#176 Classic realtor FOMO listing on 03.07.17 at 5:20 pm

This one is hilarious…

https://twitter.com/jvrCTV/status/839155435793960960

#177 Josh in Calgary on 03.07.17 at 5:40 pm

I think those of you calling for an imminent Trump impeachment are over looking one important detail. The republicans control the house and the senate. Anything short of an undeniable impeachable offense will not go anywhere. Even an undeniable offense might not go anywhere. If the democrats gain control of the house and senate then all bets are off.

#178 Cdns US Politics Obsessed on 03.07.17 at 5:50 pm

Living overseas you realize how US politics obsessed Canadians are. I do not understand this obsession considering Canadians can not vote in a US election.

Are Canadian politics that boring?

Could not care less about Trump, the Dems or any of their politics unless it affects my pocketbook.

Hell, as long as he does not press the big red button or affect Canada, Trump/Dems can self-immolate or self-deify for all I care.

#179 Johnnyk on 03.07.17 at 6:10 pm

With all the rhetoric of the last year on the election, fake news etc., havent heard anything at all about the Toronto area housing bubble. We have high costs on the E/W coasts (USA) but here in the midwest it is dullsville.
Don’t know if I would want to have that situation here anyway.

to Smoking Man; that was a sharp “Trump” move on your part!! I thought it was hilarious plus it had a happy ending…

#180 dsw on 03.07.17 at 6:12 pm

#151 DSW
Nice casual racism – “cheeto coloured head”

Poor confused social justice warrior, You REALLY wont like this then……………

_______________________________

Im not confused at all. I just call out casual racism, in all forms.

Good luck over the 8 years ~ you’ll need it

#181 Ace Goodheart on 03.07.17 at 6:34 pm

RE: #135 IHCTD9 on 03.07.17 at 10:56 am:

“Seriously, I don’t see a savior on the horizon. Politicians and Canadians themselves do not seem to care about what happens to your welfare state when its entire operating budget comes a distant second behind paying huge interest payments on a mountain of debt.”

This is particularly true for the Province of Ontario which, with rock bottom interest rates and massive yearly deficit spending, cannot balance the Provincial budget.

Ontario’s Provincial Debt is currently almost $317 billion dollars. An interest rate hike of 1% on that, is an extra 3.16 billion dollars per year.

Just to put that in perspective, the entire budgetary expenditure on our Justice department is 4.5 billion per year, so a 1% increase in interest rates, is almost the equivalent of doubling the size of our Justice Department.

Also interesting to note that currently Ontario’s fourth largest expenditure is interest on debt (at $11.8 billion per year).

Add 1.5% to interest rates and interest on Ontario’s debt becomes 16.54 billion per year, making interest payments the third largest expense per year, after health care and education.

Any increase in interest rates means that Ontario will never be able to balance its budget and will continue to spiral into insolvency.

We either cut the crap out of education and health care, or we borrow more money to keep up with the interest. There is nothing else we can do.

#182 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.17 at 7:23 pm

@#151 dsw
“Nice casual racism – “cheeto coloured head””
********************************************
Yo !
PC NAZI !
You do realize that “Cheeto” refers to a predominantly orange colored cartoon character that loves Cheetos chips right?
Hence the “orange haired Trump” inference….

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chester_Cheetah&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiZx-HN0cXSAhUP42MKHVubCEEQFggkMAk&usg=AFQjCNEwoYG30jCYZm16xzCyP-Hx0wfRrQ

Apparently they dont teach “irony” in university.

Box…..think outside it.

#183 Oragano on 03.07.17 at 9:28 pm

“I bet they read the National Inquirer ever day as well.”

MSM is the National Inquirer.

#184 Derek Stanfield on 03.08.17 at 7:01 am

The 40% in the last 48 months you sight is not more than $125,000 after income taxes which is only about 1 years of piling up cash.

It hardly seems worth the risk if things went south and down even 10% to 20% in 48 months. I doubt I will miss that $125,000.

My LIRA is being transferred this month worth $600,000. I don’t need to touch it for 10 years and the money is worth with compound interest $806,000 by then maturity.

#185 A Reply to #153 John of Grant on 03.08.17 at 8:22 am

John, you aver that, “In general, when bonds go up, stocks go down …,” and provide a correlation of -0.165. Is it statistically significant? Does it hold over time?

Bonds are monetary items, and their pricing has more to do with interest rates; while stocks are nonmonetary items, and their pricing has more to do with earnings and growth. I can’t imagine a statistically significant correlation between the prices of stocks and bonds that holds over time. If there are scholarly articles that show otherwise, please refer me to them.

And the only bathtub analogy I’ve seen in the economics literature deals with stocks and flows, injections and leakages, production and consumption, in the circular flow of income.

#186 Chris on 03.10.17 at 11:33 am

So I have a large appreciation on an investment property but it also provides great cash-flow because of the recent increases in rent. My main question is if I cash out for the “serious liquid assets” then what do I invest it in? The stock market is at an all time high and interest rates are rising which bodes ill for bonds. Holding cash is a losing proposition due to inflation unless we think there is going to be a crash soon enough to take full advantage of. Thanks