The apex

Despite it being February, the spring rutting season has hit with a vengeance. Cheap mortgage rates, seasonal hormones and record low inventory have pushed the housing market into the red zone. If this is not the apex, well, God help us.

In a moment, an example of panicked insanity. First, comb through the 400-odd comments published here yesterday. Most of them are testimony to the insanity of current times. Residential real estate values have created windfall wealth, skewed neighbourhoods and whole cities, led directly to $2 trillion in household debt, fomented xenophobia and Trump-lust, plus scared the crap out of central bankers and politicians. There’s nothing normal, balanced nor healthy about what has happened. The trip up was intoxicating. The trip down, whenever that happens, could be terrifying.

In fact, when a legendary banker starts using the word “dangerous” to describe daily events, pay attention.

This week BMO finally threw in the towel. After years of downplaying what house lust is doing to our society, blaming it all on loose credit, migration shifts, Chinese dudes and macroeconomics, the bank is admitting we’re screwed. Or close to it. “Let’s drop the pretence. The Toronto housing market — and the many cities surrounding it — are in a housing bubble,” says economist Doug Porter, adding that prices are now “dangerously detached” from the economic fundamentals like what people earn (seems kinda important). In fact, houses are appreciating a dozen times faster than wages are rising. Can you spell unsustainable?

Meanwhile listings are plunging – down 17% last month from the month before. The biggest plunk in 15 years, pushing the sales-to-listings ratio to an historic and unbelievable 94%. Check this out:

Source: Bloomberg, Toronto Real Estate Board

Listings are disappearing because owners are afraid to sell – fearing they’d be cast into a vicious bidding war for some piece of crap lesser than the one they’ve just sold. In short, nobody can afford to move. As a result, inventory is shrinking just as demand swells – bloated not only by the fact everyone thinks real estate (at any price) is a gold mine but because the sap’s running.

So on to the house below. Pokey, boring, undistinguished, with a big butt-ugly garage stuck on its face, sitting on a soulless street in the quasi-city of Mississauga. Sigh. Ennui.

Source: Mississauga News

The current owners bought it seven years ago for $404,000 from local agent Milosov (Lucky) Lukaroski. When they came to sell, they called Lucky to set a price, and he went to work combing through recent sales data to gauge appreciation. Should be worthy $650,000 now, he said. To generate more interest, he listed it at $638,600.

That’s when the beasts arrived, the scent of flesh in their flaring nostrils.

Four hundred showings – half of them in one weekend . Two dozen offers. And a sale price of $900,000, more than a quarter million over asking. At 11 pm on the night offers were accepted, they were still pouring in. People even came to the open house with certified cheques.

This is consistent with the tales we brought you days ago of uber-offers, bully bids and frenzied, slobbery buyers. A tacky house in Brampton went for $200,000 over asking in a feeding fest and blizzard of offers.  And days ago the western world was stunned when an unrenovated 1970s house in suburban 416 commanded $1.15 million more than the sellers were asking.

“The market will get crazier, because there’s no inventory at all and interest rates are below three per cent. I came to Canada in 2003 and I’ve been in real estate ever since,” says Lucky. “Something like this has never happened before.”

He’s right. So is Doug Porter. And this pathetic blog. The brave are selling. The weak are buying. Govern yourself accordingly.

$       $       $

And what of yesterday’s topic on the possible intro by T2 of a market-cooling House Tax in Canada? Seems to me it just crawled a bit closer.

You might be interested in this note from blog dog Peter, in YVR:

“Faithful reader, occasional writer. I’m sure you have great sources but I thought I’d pass on some confirmation for something you’ve been talking about recently.

“As we’re expecting our first offspring I noticed an unfair disparity when researching child care benefits. I wrote my MP, and current Justice Minister, Jody Wilson-Raybould about it. Her response was polite and concise but basically was “tough luck, deal with it”, however to end on a sweet note it included this paragraph:

To ensure that all Vancouverites can live comfortably, we are working to ensure that families like yours can find adequate and affordable housing that you deserve. We have increased consistency in mortgage rules by standardizing stress tests for both low and high ratio mortgages. This will help to ensure that households can afford the homes they buy even when economic circumstances change. It will also promote a more stable housing market for current and new homeowners. We are also improving tax fairness by ensuring that the principal residence exemption is available only in appropriate cases, so that everybody pays their fair share.

“Sounds like the “house tax” you mentioned is very real.”

219 comments ↓

#1 Alice on 02.15.17 at 5:57 pm

It’s just 99k empty homes in Toronto, prices can still go up. *eye rolls*

https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/toronto-has-over-99000-unoccupied-homes-heres-where-they-are-interactive/

#2 Randy on 02.15.17 at 6:00 pm

Wait til the music stops….Pop goes the weasel

#3 Bezengy on 02.15.17 at 6:05 pm

I see Toronto will only see a 2% tax increase this year. Obviously, they don’t need any more money than that to run their fine city, so please stop asking Winne and the rest of us for more money for upgrades that you should be paying for yourselves.

#4 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 02.15.17 at 6:06 pm

you win some you lose some its all the same to me

but i lucked out in 09 and sold a little house
made 125 thousand was lucky to be able to move into a house bought in 2001

#5 Millenial on 02.15.17 at 6:09 pm

“… gold mine…”

Garth, sometimes i think you’re trolling us. Lol.

#6 Suede on 02.15.17 at 6:09 pm

“so that everybody pays their fair share.”

WTF

My parents fled communism in Europe and are laughing because they see it coming to Canada (if it’s not already here).

Beware and stay clear of anyone that says the words “Fair Share” to you.

#7 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 02.15.17 at 6:10 pm

“Stuart always emphasized that the world is a good place, full of good people, trying to do their best. He believed in people’s extraordinary capacity for love and generosity. And he had faith in our ability to work together for the common good,” the message reads.
rip Stuart McLean

#8 Pete from St. Cesaire on 02.15.17 at 6:15 pm

Keep digging moisters; my meagre net worth (100% in the black) only increases vis-à-vis yours as you keep digging a bigger & bigger debt hole for yourselves. The majority of the purchases you’re making are the equivalent of paying $100000 for a ’79 Lada but saying ‘hey, no worries, I get to drive it around in World-Class Toronto’.

#9 cecilhenry on 02.15.17 at 6:16 pm

I am fed up with hearing about the hypocrisy of paying ‘your fair share’;

It just means everyone and anyone who is productive gets their assets stolen and redistributed. Its theft.

How does someone who pays $5000 in tax and collects $40,000 in benefits pay fairly. While another pays $60000 per YEAR and collects a few thousand at best.

What is your fair share of what someone else has earned??? It has to be EARNED before it can be taxed and stolen.

No service is free– those wanting more taxes just want someone else to pay. And the government to use force to take the money from others.

It would be unethical in private life, its no different just because a government does it.

#10 Darryl on 02.15.17 at 6:16 pm

Went to an open house today in Brampton . Very nice house offered at 1.1 M . In todays market it should be worth easy 1.3 plus .

Two open houses scheduled for weekend offers on Monday . This will be the next one in the news .

When the house is offered at an obvious discount can the agent actually claim 200 or 300 over asking ?

#11 Zinc Whiskers on 02.15.17 at 6:18 pm

My corner grocery has a sale on tulip bulbs…think I might buy a case…

#12 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.15.17 at 6:20 pm

It’s different here. Toronto is now seen as one of the premier world class cities, consistently ranking in the top 2-3 of desirable cities in the world to live in, culturally and ethnically diverse, the most democratic and economically free society, and our prices are still nowhere near NYC, London, Hong Kong and Tokyo.

The GTA is a bargain.

/sarcasm

#13 ideal RRSP contribution amount on 02.15.17 at 6:21 pm

I am in a position that I can contribute a large amount to my also large RRSP room.

Is there any formula, that what is the “sweet spot” to get the largest percentage refund, without “wasting” by over contribution?

Thanks!

#14 Michael Pereira on 02.15.17 at 6:26 pm

I’d like to think this is all being caused by leveraged debt. So Helocs and mortgage refinancing to unlock equity. And the only reason why equities there is because of a bubble . How else are people getting money to meet mortgage requirements. Please tell me I’m wrong ?!?

#15 City of Toronto budget on 02.15.17 at 6:35 pm

The major of Toronto is upset that can’t collect road toll to supplement the budget with a 100 million dollar gap.

It turns out that the 100 mil is social housing cost since the fed and the province downloaded this responsibility to the municipalities a while ago.

I am paying my “fair share”, which never seems to end, in return getting total crap public transportation, roads where I am paying for the wasted gas (and now carbon tax on top of it) due to the artificially not synchronized traffic lights and nobody asks or considers my views related to what creates a need for social housing.

Screw the “fair share”, screw the road toll.

#16 Shifty on 02.15.17 at 6:38 pm

But Toronto’s nice chief city planner said on your favorite station (bnn) that a bubble does not exist. Who do we believe… a politician or an economist…. hmmmmm…..

#17 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.15.17 at 6:40 pm

We are also improving tax fairness by ensuring that the principal residence exemption is available only in appropriate cases, so that everybody pays their fair share.

———

But, but, “political suicide”…

No. It’s not political suicide. Because lefty libtard Canadians have been brainwashed to bend over any time the phrase “pay their fair share” is invoked.

They will eventually take it ALL, including TFSAs. And the proceeds from your garage sale.

Cashless is next to ensure that they don’t miss a goddam penny of their “revenue”.

And the masses will welcome it. Because they hate freedom.

#18 Reality on 02.15.17 at 6:41 pm

This is not a new house tax! Its just enforcing existing laws.

Unless we want everyone breaking laws in this country and exploiting loopholes purposely built into legislation..

#19 HoweStreet.com on 02.15.17 at 6:42 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
What is the “Trump” Handshake?
Reckless Mortgages in Toronto.

http://www.howestreet.com/2017/02/13/what-is-the-trump-handshake/

#20 For those about to flop... on 02.15.17 at 6:43 pm

Here is an update on one of my Pink Snow houses.

It was sold in the last day or two ,so we won’t know the sold price for a few months and won’t ever really know how much they lost due to being unable to substantiate how much they spent on the renovation for the flip.

With renovation and transaction costs it is likely they lost somewhere between 100/150k on this project…

M42BC

///////////////////////////////////

#169 For those about to flop… on 02.08.17 at 4:01 pm
Pink Snow falling in Vancouver.

Some of you might recall the other day that I told you that I have been keeping an eye on 4 flips in trouble nearby where I live.

These guys bought this house in July 2016 for 1.46m ,before renovating the house while the market tanked and have just taken another 150k off and are already bailing out water.

July 2016 …1.46m

Feb 2017….asking 1.499 and still have to deduct renovation costs and transaction costs.

If you click on both links you will see a marked difference in the aesthetics of the same house…

M42BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3308-carolina-street

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMjJDMA==

#21 Victor V on 02.15.17 at 6:44 pm

#13

Depends on your income and province. Use this calculator:

http://www.ey.com/ca/en/services/tax/tax-calculators-2017-rrsp-savings

#22 TheSpangler on 02.15.17 at 6:45 pm

Come to BC, try and find a place to live, there is nothing available or you can give your arm, leg and first born to have a roof over your head (rent or buy).

Bring on the house tax, houses are to live in, they are not for investments or to stash your wealth. The PR exemption not being reported previously, was a horrible policy. Without there being something reported there was nothing for CRA to go after to ensure you actually qualified, also given the size of these transactions why the f*ck were they not reported, while you get T5s for minimal investment income.

You get limits for your RRSP, TFSA and LCGE, you should have a limit for your PR exemption. Cry all you want old geezers.

#23 Bobby on 02.15.17 at 6:45 pm

I remember the 80’s housing bubble well. Recall looking at a new build in Cobourg just before the crash. The quality was pathetic but people were lined up to buy and would plan to make the repairs themselves. Bent dining room chandeliers, tiled floors so uneven and wavy that the gap on the baseboard varied from zero to 1 1/2″. My favourite was the sloping ensuite floor, so out of alignment that they had to shim the toilet.
I knew the end was near.

#24 Chaddywack on 02.15.17 at 6:51 pm

It will be interesting to see if the government imposes and withholding taxes on real estate sales. Would be easy enough to do during conveyancing and then place the onus on the taxpayer to prove its their principle residence on their taxes to get the money back.

#25 45north on 02.15.17 at 6:52 pm

And days ago the western world was stunned when an unrenovated 1970s house in suburban 416 commanded $1.15 million more than the sellers were asking.

yep

https://mcaf.ee/wr7qs5

Toronto Star

#26 Nonplused on 02.15.17 at 6:53 pm

That piece of junk went for $900,000? Well it doesn’t look like I got such a bad deal on my house now.

#13 ideal RRSP contribution amount

Without knowing your income it’s hard to say what the ideal RRSP amount is. My own strategy is to try and minimize the amount I am paying in the top tax brackets, but once you move to the lowest tax bracket use a TSFA. The worst case scenario is that in retirement you will be in the low tax bracket so why pay tax on any investment gains? Pay the lower amount now and use a TFSA so the gains are tax free.

So if you are paying the 17% bracket now and not more use a TFSA. If you are in the 50% bracket, wipe as much of that out as you can using RRSP’s. And then max your TSFA anyway you rich bastard.

Any decent tax software can help you figure out the amount to contribute with a sliding dial.

#27 A belieber on 02.15.17 at 6:54 pm

Garth can I still get in on the survey?? I wasn’t here yesterday.

Renter: pay 600/month for my mom’s basement
TFSA: maxed for my age.
Other investments: I spent about $800 on 10 tickets that I can sell for close to 3x face value now, up to 6x face, closer to the event.

Before anyone wants to lecture me on the ethics of reselling tickets, keep in mind that the people buying them are just using their boomer parents money anyways, so it really doesn’t matter. Just ask bdwy sktn how much he had to shell out.

#28 zee on 02.15.17 at 6:56 pm

how are these folks getting their mortgage approval at these prices. with the stress test and slightly higher rates how can you get a mortgage approval.

what happen to the 40% first time buyers who cant qualify under the new rules. is this even true?

#29 John on 02.15.17 at 6:57 pm

In about 30 days, Janet Yellen will very likely hike. Unless the tulips explode first. She’s waited too long. 10 yr treasuries moved over 2.5 % for a time today. The stock market is exploding to Mars. The horses have fled the barn and when this blows, we’ll be like Japan: Equities at half their peak and housing at less than 60% of their peak. Take notes your grandkids will read about in the history books. D

#30 Don P on 02.15.17 at 7:01 pm

Earlier today had lunch with my accountant friend. Apparently CRA is all over the place on audits these days.

Regarding the post about principal residence taxation my accountant friend says that a suite of under 50% of the floor area won’t risk the principal residence exemption but a home office + suite (even if the combined total is under 25% of the area) could tip the scales.

#31 I'm NOT Poloz on 02.15.17 at 7:02 pm

We need to talk down the Loonie to offset these extreme bidding wars. A 75-cent Loonie is waayyy to high.

For our next Bank of Canada meeting, let’s encourage Poloz to cut interest rates to 0.05% or negative and talk down the Loonie so that it’s Market rate on the forex is worth to 50 cents.

We need a .30 or .25 loonie in the long run to boost our exports and promote equality in Canada & worldwide.

We will receive more investment to educate our women to become Doctors, Lawyers, Surgeons, CEOs and Presidents when we allow our loonie to be worth 25 cents on the Dollar.

We need a 1-cent loonie by next year. You heard that right—We need a 0.01 loonie to compete our exports with the Japanese.

We are not far off from Japan because in our prized city Toronto, single men who don’t want to work with women are lining up for Ontario Works, comparable to Japan where there is a herbivore sexless M.G.T.O.W revoluation. We should cut Ontario Works benefits for single men so that they should be forced to work and not leech off our economy.

Our economy needs a lower dollar to survive and boost exports. A 61-cent dollar like we saw in early 2002 is even too high in today’s global economy. We should aim for a 5-cent or 1-cent Loonie. It will benefit our economy greatly and boost exports.

If I were Stephen Poloz, we should peg the US dollar to the Loonie that 1 U.S= CAD$1,000,000,000.

This will make us billionaires overnight! More Canadian dollars to enrich our economy!

#32 Lucky got lucky! on 02.15.17 at 7:02 pm

The realtor should have listed the place way higher than 650k in that market. 7 years of appreciation and low rates plus FOMO madness would have at least doubled the 400k shack anyway.

No way I’m touching these beaver barf boxes with a ten foot pole at these prices. They rot and they require huge repair bills. The land isn’t worth that either. Toronto is still full of suckers.

Wait until the invasion from the US starts. You won’t recognize Canada after that.

#33 The Limited Sage on 02.15.17 at 7:03 pm

“… So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”

#34 45north on 02.15.17 at 7:05 pm

Sounds like the “house tax” you mentioned is very real.

I worked 40 years for the Federal Government. I could just imagine the office to be created to administer this tax. Here’s the questions:

how many houses do you own
year of purchase and price
% down
age of house at that time
your age at that time
amount owing or number of years it took to pay off
number of years owned
value today

The office is going to cost $100 million. Without breaking a sweat.

#35 Today's Market on 02.15.17 at 7:06 pm

#10 Darryl

“In todays market it should be worth easy 1.3 plus.”

You mean in yesterday’s market.

You MUST be a realtor.

……

My favourite thing to do lately is ask (troll) my friends, realtors and not, with the following question.

If you were given $1M dollars in cash today would you;
a) Purchase a $1M house.
b) Purchase $1M in income producing assets.

Everyone I know and have asked, and I mean everyone, said a. To which I then explain to them their choice then costs them taxes, maintenance, insurance, utilities – while if they chose b they wouldn’t have those expenses and would in fact be generating income.

One friend looked at me in shock and told me no one has ever explained this to him, and he has never thought about it. He said he felt like throwing up as his wife has been pressing hard for a house these past few months (they are currently renters). They were approved for a little under $1M property including their $100,000 down payment, on average incomes.

Every realtor fights me on this, sometimes aggressively. Often going as far as explaining exactly what real estate they would purchase as it’s the best investment you can make, and if you are looking at a 5 – 10 year horizon you can’t lose no matter what the market looks like. There’s no getting through to these types. I was speaking with one today who denies prices went down in the early 90s as “he’s looked up historical prices on TREB (Toronto MLS)”, so he doesn’t understand what all this bubble and cycle talk is about.

Of course, how do you explain math and cycles to people who never finished high school. This is not a knock against realtors, literally many realtors I know did not finish high school. I know many realtors but who doesn’t these days. I also know a few realtors with actual high level education, however they are the minority.

Maybe there should be a financial literacy test for realtors – or at least basic math skills.

How do people trust, and are influenced on, the biggest purchasing decision of their lives with people who need calculators for simple arithmetic? This has always blown my mind.

#36 Barb on 02.15.17 at 7:14 pm

Re #6 Suede:

“…My parents fled communism in Europe and are laughing because they see it coming to Canada (if it’s not already here).”

——————————————-

Mine too.

Until I left home, I recall dinner conversations between Mom and Dad that always–either at the beginning, middle or end of lively discussions–had Dad admitting “We’ve come to the right place. In Canada, if you work hard you can get ahead”.

Now that I’m a senior, I’m reminded that the only difference between the communism they knew and today’s Canada is that no-one but government could own anything.

Which one, you ask?
Are we there yet, Dad?

“Robbing Peter to pay Paul, you’ll get no argument from Paul.” (if I recall the idiom)

#37 45north on 02.15.17 at 7:16 pm

There’s nothing normal, balanced nor healthy about what has happened. The trip up was intoxicating. The trip down, whenever that happens, could be terrifying.

let’s drop the pretense: all hell is about to break loose:

#38 Doug t on 02.15.17 at 7:16 pm

This country is awash in debt – savers have been penalized for years now and the banks and govt have pushed the public into borrowing massively. When the SHTF do you believe those same banks and govt are going to be there to help you? LMAO

RATM

#39 Vancouver Dudes on 02.15.17 at 7:19 pm

#16 Shifty on 02.15.17 at 6:38 pm
But Toronto’s nice chief city planner said on your favorite station (bnn) that a bubble does not exist. Who do we believe… a politician or an economist…. hmmmmm…..

NEITHER V

#40 Bob on 02.15.17 at 7:26 pm

The road to hell is paved with good intentions but here in Canada at least the government will ensure that “everybody pays their fair share”.

We are doomed.

#41 Linda on 02.15.17 at 7:29 pm

Owner’s are afraid to sell because they may have to pay more for less. Makes no sense. First, no one is forcing them to buy, so the fear isn’t rational. Second, if you can sell for the insane prices being quoted, seems to me that much additional money will allow you to expand your rental options by a considerable amount. Depending on your age/circumstances, could fund a very nice retirement. If you don’t ‘have’ to buy & can wait for the much touted explosion of the housing gasbag why not wait?

The other reason for not selling is that you like where you are at. Not everyone is motivated by money, however large the sum might be. Which given the musings regarding a housing tax makes me wonder – would those who are selling now potentially be hit with a tax on the windfall gain later on? Would the gov’t make any such housing tax retroactive to say the beginning of 2017 to ensure they collected as much as possible?

#42 Free bird on 02.15.17 at 7:34 pm

Knowledge is power… if used.

Readers of this blog have an advantage to help save our a**es.

Apply the hell out of knowledge from now on!

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.17 at 7:36 pm

Typical govt beaurocrats.
Knee jerk reaction when the real estate “frenzy” finally descended on Toronto.
People in Vancouver have been screaming for at least 5 years for “someone” to do “something” ….to no avail.
But when the Premier of BC Christy Cluck realized that the exorbitant house market might jeapordize her chances at re-election….Poof….a “foreign head tax” which she’s since rescinded because the market out West has pooped a cement block out a quarter inch hole……
Back to the Feds.
Too much too late.
As usual.
Killing a cash cow with a bazooka.
I cant wait to see the back peddling when this all goes sideways in about 6 months.

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.17 at 7:40 pm

@#27 A belieber

Come ON!
That wasnt true.
You over charge your mom for living in the basement.
You spend $800 a month on Lotto tickets.
And your TFSA is worth $1500.00 all in because you’re 14 years old

#45 TrumpForTheAges on 02.15.17 at 7:41 pm

#29 John…..”in 30 days Yellen will raise rates”.

Right now odds are at 40%. They have never raised rates before when probability was less than 75%.

So let’s stick to facts and logic. It is extremely unlikely that we see an increase in rates in March.

And….you probably haven’t seen that the Atl Fed just downgraded US GDP growth for Q1 to an annualized rate of 2.2% from 2.7%.

Sorry John….it is highly unlikely that rates go up in 30 days.

#46 Hairhead on 02.15.17 at 7:42 pm

Mixed messages here from Vancouver. Just an anecdote to illustrate the screwed-up nature of RE in this part of the province.

First, prices and expectations are whipsawing back and forth as Crusty Clarke imposes/not imposes taxes, loans money/doesn’t loan money, all in an effort to win May’s provincial election. Buyers and sellers here are confused.

Second, in Vancouver there is a huge difference between anything east of Main Street, condo or SFH, and anything west of Main street.

Third, HAM absolutely still here.

Here’s the case. neighbours of mine, living 200 yards (a block and a half) west of Main Street in South Vancouver. Ordinary middle-class neighbourhood, nothing special at alll. Bought their 33-foot lot, 30-year old house in 2009, with a 900K mortgage. House was badly built, compulsory renos of about 40K to keep house livable.

They put it up for sale 2 weeks ago. sold in 10 days, with 4 serious offers, all Chinese persons. One offer was for $2.8 mill, but they turned it down because cash buyer wanted them out in two weeks. Accepted 2nd offer for 2.6 million, with 3 months to find a new place.

Why do this? (Particularly if, after paying the remaining mortgage, they would have about $1.9 mill in untaxed investable cash?)

Because.

Now they can go to the EAST side of Main street, literally 1/2 a mile away, and purchase a decent, newer house outright. Result, for them, is that they own a house, no mortgage, and a couple hundred grand cash. They’re just about to close a deal. Their monthly nut just decreased a whole lot, and they and their kids now have residential stability.

That’s the social and economic reality here of “east” side versus “west” side. (No, it really doesn’t make sense; they are buying another 33-foot lot house, 1/2 mile away, with a price differential of ~900k – 1 mill.)

Meanwhile, in not-Vancouver and not-Victoria areas of BC, my mother lives in a wholly-owned home north of Nanaimo, 75′ x 250′ lot, overlooking a wildlife sanctuary and the sea, protected by both feds and BC, will NEVER be built on. Deer in here yard, beautiful sunsets, 1 block from 2 major food stores, all other amenities within 10 miles. House 2 levels, 3 BR, deck with gorgeous views.

What’s the current assessment? Less than $400K.

How many fundamentally-wrong things are there in the above anecdotes? Start counting.

#47 Matthew on 02.15.17 at 7:43 pm

So Jodie Wilson Raybaould is basically saying that the Liberals will continue to do nothing substantial about the housing market. Doesn’t it make you feel better when Finance Minster Morneau says that in response to an unsustainable bubble, housing detached from fundamentls, documented cases of money laundering that he is “monitoring the situation.” If your house is burning do you monitor the situation? lol

#48 conan on 02.15.17 at 7:46 pm

Lots of mention of tulips: For the peeps who don’t know the reference.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr3FcXeDZFc

#49 Metaxa on 02.15.17 at 7:48 pm

All you posters worried about “your fair share” seem to be mostly concerned with the fact that you don’t get to decide what your fair share is.

Just like they do in New Zealand?
Or Britain?
Australia?

You want to build a wall with your wealth, you want to decide who gets what portion of what you deem yours?

Understand that historically and culturally Canada hasn’t been to involved with wall building, rather we build bigger tables so all can eat.

The things you worry about are not conservatism, not pragmatic solutions. They are fairly contrary to the precepts that made this country…the country in which you grew your wealth and seemingly prospered.

Maybe its time to Google up “what is conservatism” and do some reading.

Because its the “I’ve got mine, F the rest of you” mouth breathers in our side of the centre that send folks over to more progressive sides of the issues.

Canada’s version of social democracy has been supported over generations by economists, left and right leaning political parties and its citizens.

Keep up your advocacy on this “I’ve got mine, F you” theme, make sure your local political apparatus hears this long and loud and push it up to provincial then federal levels and you can ensure the CPC will be out of political power for a long, long time.

#50 Long-Time Lurker on 02.15.17 at 7:55 pm

Limited Sage, there’s a chance to buy in the future, a few years from now after the bubble has burst. If you buy now you’ll goose yourself big-time.

What are the fundamentals supporting the price range for this market? How are these people going to pay these mortgages? What’s going on here is the same blind euphoria that crashed the US housing market.

Look up that housing crash in the US. It happened around 2007-2008. It also seriously screwed the US financial system.

#51 Darryl on 02.15.17 at 7:56 pm

#35 Today’s Market on 02.15.17 at 7:06 pm
#10 Darryl
“In todays market it should be worth easy 1.3 plus.”
You mean in yesterday’s market.
You MUST be a realtor.
—————————————————————
Nope
You must be a Millennial

#52 Rexx Rock on 02.15.17 at 8:07 pm

House in Gorden Head went for $250,000 over asking price.Its insane,I know wages are high in Victoria but this is to much.What has gone wrong where average families making $100,000 can’t afford a small house?The BOC and the government are the ones who made this happen.Thank you!!

#53 InvestorsFriend on 02.15.17 at 8:07 pm

Optimum RRSP contributiion?

#13 ideal RRSP contribution amount on 02.15.17 at 6:21 pm asked:

I am in a position that I can contribute a large amount to my also large RRSP room.

Is there any formula, that what is the “sweet spot” to get the largest percentage refund, without “wasting” by over contribution?

Thanks!

*******************************************
I think you want to make sure your refund will be as large a percentage of the contributions as possible.

Say you are in a 40% tax bracket. Try to figure out pretty closely what your taxable income will be for 2016. Then run out and contribute enough so that your income just drops down to the next tax level say 35%.

Take a similar amount and contribute that to claim for 2017.

It varies by province. Use the following link.

http://www.taxtips.ca/marginaltaxrates.htm

Make sure your last $100 of contributions gets you at least a 30% tax refund. RRSP investing will likely beat TFSA investing in the end if you get a 40% refund. At 30% and under the TFSA likely wins. Not sure where the cutoff is and it depends on your marginal tax rate in retirement which can be only be guessed at but which is likely to be under 30% for most people. Of course some people posting here may have huge incomes in retirement and face 54% marginal tax rates, even 61% with the clawback so it is NOT a case of one-size-fits-all.

Someone likely to face the clawback in retirement would probably be wise to max out the TFSA first. But with pension income splitting and under the current rules by far the majority of married retirees will not face clawback.

I rather favor the RRSP over TFSA for a lot of people precisely because RRSP investments are usually considered untouchable while TFSA money burns holes in most pockets.

#54 Poorgirl on 02.15.17 at 8:11 pm

Would love to know where these people are getting their financing. And what would happen if the bank appraisal comes in at 650,000 or less.

#55 Today's Market on 02.15.17 at 8:12 pm

#51 Darryl

Your judgement on the generation I belong to is as bad as your valuation of properties in Brampton.

#56 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.15.17 at 8:16 pm

#22 TheSpangler on 02.15.17 at 6:45 pm

Come to BC, try and find a place to live, there is nothing available or you can give your arm, leg and first born to have a roof over your head (rent or buy).

Bring on the house tax, houses are to live in, they are not for investments or to stash your wealth.

Cry all you want old geezers.
——————————-

Not that I agree with it, but I must admit, I will laugh when this happens.

#57 TurnerNation on 02.15.17 at 8:17 pm

@Tony – TECK.B down 10% today.

A curious corner of Toronto – near St. Lawrence market.

Allied REIT owns it. The new pizza place closed, the newer bar closed, now Burger King closed up.
Predicting all will be torn down for Kandos.

Streetview: https://goo.gl/maps/8KaJm2FPjRK2

#58 Vancouver Dudes on 02.15.17 at 8:18 pm

http://globalnews.ca/news/3248376/immigration-from-abroad-rest-of-canada-adds-to-ontarios-housing-crunch/

AND UP SHE GOES……

#59 InvestorsFriend on 02.15.17 at 8:23 pm

Trump and his Russian connections…

With this and and other legal troubles from his past (Trump University, sex assault accusations, accusations about improper use of his foundation, and whatever else I have forgotten) what is the over/under on his Presidency lasting another month? 6 months? one year? (I assume no takers betting it to last more than that?)

#60 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.15.17 at 8:30 pm

#59 InvestorsFriend on 02.15.17 at 8:23 pm

Trump and his Russian connections…

With this and and other legal troubles from his past (Trump University, sex assault accusations, accusations about improper use of his foundation, and whatever else I have forgotten) what is the over/under on his Presidency lasting another month? 6 months? one year? (I assume no takers betting it to last more than that?)
———

You sir, are an idiot.

Here is a Democrat summing up the situation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7j_ZfKmcnSk

#61 Wrk.dover on 02.15.17 at 8:35 pm

Just a detail but my brother just unloaded an exact copy of this house last week in the south western end of Mr & Mrs sauga for a similar price, and that big honking butt ugly garage on the front did not even have room to lean a rake on the wall if you were going to store a girly size SUV in there. My house is small but ergonomic, and this scaled down full feature house made me think ‘training bra’ when I visited it. Million bucks. As if! Nice it you can afford it, but not much if that is all you can afford.

#62 Calvin on 02.15.17 at 8:36 pm

For those who missed this yesterday I am re-posting.

Time to put pressure on Trudeau

Petition to the Government of Canada
Whereas:

Electoral reform was a cornerstone of the current government’s electoral campaign;
Canadians have waited patiently for the government to give a clear proposal as to how electoral reform will work;
No progress towards electoral reform has been publicly apparent during the year since the government first sat in session; and
Recent public information indicates the government may be backing off campaign promises to ensure electoral reform.

We, the undersigned, supporters of electoral reform, call upon the Government of Canada to 1. Immediately, declare its on-going commitment to ensuring the 2015 election be the last Federal Canadian election under the First Past The Post system.
2. In the coming weeks, clearly outline one or more proposals for how Canadian elections could operate once electoral reform is complete.
3. In the coming weeks, outline a firm timeline for public consultation regarding the proposals mentioned above, detailing the proposed timeline until introduction before the house of commons.
4. In the coming months, outline a proposed timeline for the introduction of an electoral reform bill before the House of Commons, detailing the proposed timeline until passage into law.

This link will take you to the sign up page.

https://petitions.parl.gc.ca/en/Petition/Details?Petition=e-616

#63 acdel on 02.15.17 at 8:40 pm

Sorry Garth,

As you know I am one to change the subject once in awhile. Today, I feel we lost a real Canadian Icon, Stuart McLean past on today. For those of us familiar with this great man and his stories that personally brought me great joy, he will be missed.

If interested Click on “Canada’s story teller” and listen to one of his greatest! Thanks Garth!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/stuart-mclean-dead-obit-1.3984826

#64 Andrew Woburn on 02.15.17 at 8:45 pm

One thing that would help Vancouver R/E prices is greater density. This is one approach.

“If Vancouver wants to introduce more density into the city, one architect says it can be done without transforming the city into an endless row of high-rise towers.

Many experts have called for more density in the city to make it easier to build up transit and concentrate other services, increase sustainability and build more community.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/density-without-towers-vancouver-architect-says-yes-1.3982385

#65 She Who Must Be Obeyed on 02.15.17 at 8:45 pm

….. Am I the only one with a headache?…..

#66 OttawaMike on 02.15.17 at 8:48 pm

Nah.

Keep you blog meme going as it’s great for drawing traffic but Toronto is at fair value.

I just curled with a 35 year housing analyst who is a former CMHC dude and has been an independent for half of his career.

His take:
Employment, demographics, net migration, interest rates all have supported housing up to this point. All markets outside of the immediate GTA are balanced and trending with inflation.

There will be no repeat of ’89 and that 30% was the largest major housing correction that Canada had ever experienced.

Sorry Garth, there is a good reason we have not seen a correction.

Ergo, there’ll never be one? Your friend must double as a comedian. — Garth

#67 NV Landlord on 02.15.17 at 8:51 pm

Time to sell the rental condos.
Sorry renters. Can’t risk losing income on housing.

#68 A belieber on 02.15.17 at 8:52 pm

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.15.17 at 7:40 pm
@#27 A belieber

You over charge your mom for living in the basement
——————-

What? That doesn’t even make sense, my mom charges me, it’s her basement not mine. How can I over charge her? Stick to stinking up elevators, even you can figure that one out.

#69 EmpCod on 02.15.17 at 8:56 pm

#13 ideal RRSP contribution amount

If you live in Quebec, I suggest you check the “Laferrière Curves”, which try to approximate the effective marginal tax rate for a given taxable income, taking into account government social programs and subsidies. Link in french :

https://www.cqff.com/claude_laferriere/courbe2016.htm

Something similar may exist for other provinces, I’m not sure where you’d find it. Anyone ?

#70 Paul on 02.15.17 at 9:08 pm

#58 Vancouver Dude

No matter what anyone says about the market not being driven by immigration are just wrong.
350000 to 400,000 newcomers that need a roof over their head is as Joe Biden said is big F’fn deal.
Not racist just a fact.

Speaking of facts, we welcomed 271,200 new permanent residents in 2015, or 54,000 families. Similar last year. That’s 0.75% of the population. — Garth

#71 I Don't Know on 02.15.17 at 9:18 pm

RE always goes up. In the long run. Every sentient being knows that. Enough said.

#72 WUL on 02.15.17 at 9:27 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/calgary-and-edmonton/calgary-house-built-with-great-purpose-sees-value-drop-by2-million/article33986142/

Good old Britannia Drive in SW Calgary. Purchased for $6MM five years ago and now on the market listed at $4MM. Down 30%.

Mr. Inglis does not care.

“I was raised in a trailer park in Indiana.” And is moving to the Mediterranean.

#73 bdwy sktrn on 02.15.17 at 9:32 pm

These guys bought this house in July 2016 for 1.46m ,before renovating the house while the market tanked and have just taken another 150k off and are already bailing out water.

July 2016 …1.46m

Feb 2017….asking 1.499 and still have to deduct renovation costs and transaction costs.
—————-
snow is a light shade of green on this one. 1.6249

#74 Herb on 02.15.17 at 9:33 pm

#49 Metaxa,

bravo!

#75 bdwy sktrn on 02.15.17 at 9:36 pm

reselling tickets?

hell ya! soak ’em if they need to see the beebs that bad.
the ultimate dumb buyers.

#76 SI2K on 02.15.17 at 9:39 pm

#13 ideal RRSP contribution amount

One strategy is to only contribute the amount that takes you into the next lowest tax bracket. Do this for as many tax years as necessary to use the amount. MMV according to your immediate needs.

#77 bdwy sktrn on 02.15.17 at 9:40 pm

These guys bought this house in July 2016 for 1.46m ,before renovating the house while the market tanked and have just taken another 150k off and are already bailing out water.
——————
only other new sale in this immediate hood is a townhouse for 1.2 , about 100k over ask.

#78 Trojan House on 02.15.17 at 9:42 pm

“so that everybody pays their fair share.”

The most overused phrase in today’s socialist agenda. Everybody is paying their fair share, arguably more than their fair share.

When will politicians realize that their overspending is the actual problem???

#79 For those about to flop... on 02.15.17 at 9:43 pm

on 02.15.17 at 9:32 pm
These guys bought this house in July 2016 for 1.46m ,before renovating the house while the market tanked and have just taken another 150k off and are already bailing out water.

July 2016 …1.46m

Feb 2017….asking 1.499 and still have to deduct renovation costs and transaction costs.
—————-
snow is a light shade of green on this one. 1.6249

///////////////////////////

Thanks for that Broadway.

These guys were lucky in regards that they found tradespeople to work for free for eight weeks and the realtor waived the commission.

Lucky buggers…

M42BC

#80 bdwy sktrn on 02.15.17 at 9:45 pm

and happy valentines day to 604 owners – we are back, baby!

22xx graveley dom 8 $1,69x sell $1,72x,000 (flop-next door to one of your ‘snow jobs’)

the crash is offically over in east van! source-looking at this week’s sales.

#81 Steven H on 02.15.17 at 9:46 pm

#46 – Hairhead
Here’s the case. neighbours of mine, living 200 yards (a block and a half) west of Main Street in South Vancouver. Ordinary middle-class neighbourhood, nothing special at alll. Bought their 33-foot lot, 30-year old house in 2009, with a 900K mortgage. House was badly built, compulsory renos of about 40K to keep house livable.

They put it up for sale 2 weeks ago. sold in 10 days, with 4 serious offers, all Chinese persons. One offer was for $2.8 mill, but they turned it down because cash buyer wanted them out in two weeks. Accepted 2nd offer for 2.6 million, with 3 months to find a new place.
——————————————————
I find it hard to believe your numbers. No standard 33 ft wide lot 1 -1/2 block west of main with a 38 yr old house in bad shape can command $2.8 million. Either the lot is larger than standard lot or house is newer than 38 yrs old.
Link?

#82 Former BC Guy - Now NS Guy on 02.15.17 at 9:46 pm

This housing bubble is the fault of the Bank of Canada.

Interest rates are too low. They should be increased immediately by 0.5 %, then another .25% four times over the next year. Housing bubble problem solved. Simple.

Foreign buyer – non-residents should be charged 15% HST on house/land purchases across Canada, because they are buying a product, not a home to live in. Housing bubble problem solved. Simple.

Vote me PM and I will make it so. And I will scrap the “first past the post electoral system”. Promise.

#83 Leo Trollstoy on 02.15.17 at 9:48 pm

Toronto real estate has been booming for years. This isn’t new. It will likely continue for awhile. Just watch and enjoy.

#84 bdwy sktrn on 02.15.17 at 9:53 pm

23xx NANAIMO STREET $1,18x sell$1,18x (small lot on a major 4 lane)
DOM 1.

170x E 37TH AVENUE $1,29x sell$1,37x
DOM 14

65 E 48TH AVENUE $1,49x sell$1,73x
DOM 12

the phoenix rises. toronto will NEVER surpass the mighty 604.

12 months since peak volume – prices holding elevated levels.

#85 $900,000? on 02.15.17 at 10:00 pm

haha!!

I live in Mississauga – I need to re-do yesterday’s poll !

LOL. I put $900,000 as a guesstimate – I was WAY off

#86 For those about to flop... on 02.15.17 at 10:00 pm

sktrn on 02.15.17 at 9:45 pm
and happy valentines day to 604 owners – we are back, baby!

22xx graveley dom 8 $1,69x sell $1,72x,000 (flop-next door to one of your ‘snow jobs’)

the crash is offically over in east van! source-looking at this week’s sales.

/////////////////////////////

Maybe they can go over to 2273 Graveley and give them a bottle of wine and tell them not to feel bad about speculating and losing 100/200k

Anyone who bought before January 2015 is safe at this stage most people who bought after this date are in the danger zone…

M42BC

#87 TurnerNation on 02.15.17 at 10:03 pm

There’s no housing bubble only a banking bubble.
They’re having fun issuing $500000-1000000 variable rate reset debentures masquerading as mortgages on tear down junk in Toronto.
There will be rubbing tummy with this stream of payments.
Why stop it now? Seriously.

#88 TSX on 02.15.17 at 10:03 pm

Housing is out of control , highest household debt levels of all time….and the tsx at all-time highs

Perfectly healthy

#89 WUL on 02.15.17 at 10:03 pm

Herb and Metaxa:

Exactly. There exists the possibility that J. Kenney and B. Jean in AB drive some support to Rachel. I do not get it. Can AB not find a single Lougheed? My wife and I are 43 year keen followers of the political scene here. I said keen, not astute. We agree with one another that had Peter been alive the last election, there was the prospect that he would have voted NDP. I have seen longtime PC supporters do that. The political wilderness beckons.

#90 me again on 02.15.17 at 10:07 pm

‘principal residence exemption is available only in appropriate cases’


‘principal residence’ is not clearly defined on cra site

many folks view it as a designation

#91 traderJim on 02.15.17 at 10:07 pm

I’m usually the one calling for a bubble to burst about 2 or 3 years early.

Maybe due to that I just don’t see this one ending anytime soon.

It will end, extremely badly, of course.

But I am still GUESSING it will be a few years from now.

I just don’t see the catalyst. Way too much liquidity in the world.

A black swan is always possible, but they call them black swans because they are so rare.

#92 traderJim on 02.15.17 at 10:09 pm

#83 Leo

Didn’t see your post before I wrote mine.

Agree.

#93 Harold Svenson on 02.15.17 at 10:13 pm

I hope T2 slaps capital gains on principal residences, regardless. People go on about fairness, but what’s fair about someone making a million in tax free profit just because they live in one of the insane markets like GTA.

My small town in Ontario is lousy with such people who cashed out tax free and now live here as millionaires on money on which they paid no tax. Meanwhile the locals haven’t seen much of an increase in the value of their homes.

I’ve been paying taxes through the nose for years on what is a minimal income by today’s standards. Property taxes here are going up nearly 5 percent to pay for all the infrastructure demanded by the nouveau riche that moved in.

#94 Bat Flipper on 02.15.17 at 10:18 pm

Governments need a shipload of money to start to even balance the books. Home owners are sitting on a shipload of unrealized equity in their homes that could be easily taxes. Put a tax on it and people will be mad for awhile, but then the gov will increase the cpp, oas, child tax benefit, and the plebs will rejoice again. Another tax on the rich. Hell, they may even make it proportional. Own a house less than 400K, no capital gains tax. Over 1 Million, hell hath no fury.

And the budget will balance itself…

#95 traderJim on 02.15.17 at 10:24 pm

#49 Metaxa

It kills me that you don’t even realize your post demonstrates perfectly that there is no meaningful difference between PCs, Liberals, NDpers.

Last time I bothered to actually be involved in politics I campaigned to have that lump of cold oatmeal Joe Clark booted in favour of someone with an actual consistent ideology, not to mention a spine. Like perhaps actually realizing government spending and higher taxes are not the answers to all problems, but are in fact the cause of most of them.

But when I realized the PC party was full of Metaxaites I gave up and never bothered with politics again.

Until Trump, who is the last hope to turn things around before total economic collapse.

But I doubt he can do it, and depending which of his populist ideas he acts on and which he decides to quietly abandon, he might even hasten it.

But I’m going to be optimistic for 2 years anyway, then we’ll have an idea whether he can succeed or not.

And if nothing else, watching the hysteria of the leftists and seeing their true nature exposed is the best entertainment and most enlightening time of the last 30 years. (Honestly, before Trump I actually thought ‘progressives’ were decent, if misguided people. Hello! Thanks for the wake-up call Michael Moore, BLM, Anti-fa and all the Hollywood lunatics)

#96 Bond Junkie on 02.15.17 at 10:25 pm

Two still does not equal four. That’s real bubblicious appreciation. Let the minions scrap over their million dollar shacks. Still plenty of CMHC insurance available for those. When 2=4 that’s the top. We’re not there yet. Garth why have you never addressed the IMPP?

Don’t you think your readers deserve to know that the government will backstop banks and the housing market at all costs? The precedent was already set way back in 2009! Do some research dogs!! It was a 100bp positive carry trade for the BoC, first real act of quantitative easing in this country but the history books will never document it as such. Anyways, nothing to see here, that was SO 8yrs ago.

http://www.lop.parl.gc.ca/content/lop/researchpublications/prb0856-e.htm

Wake up everyone!!!!!

– Bj

#97 For those about to flop... on 02.15.17 at 10:27 pm

Actually,Broadway you can look at that Graveley sale two ways.
If it went for the price you state…I have no reason to doubt that you are not an outstanding member of society…It could lift up the next door neighbors who obviously overbought,or it could make them sick that the guy puts up a similar age age house on a similar size block and it flys off the shelf.

They could now get 1.7ish and roughly break even.
It could have been had for 1.399 though.

Like I said the other day….there are still tonnes of Crealievers in Vancouver and Canada for that matter…

M42BC

#98 traderJim on 02.15.17 at 10:31 pm

p.s. I am still too disgusted with Canadian politicians to look into it, but this Maxime Bernier guy sounds ok. Just judging by a couple of tweets I saw.

But with so many namby pambys in the PC party he probably doesn’t stand a chance.

#99 DodgedBullet on 02.15.17 at 10:38 pm

Tax question for the masses:

My wife has zero income for the latest tax year but she does have 13K contribution room.

If she pulls 13K out of our joint account into her SDRRSP would that trigger a tax rebate/refund?

ufile s’ware says no, hence the question.

Thanks, DB.

No income, no refund. — Garth

#100 DodgedBullet on 02.15.17 at 10:40 pm

Thanks, Garth – you are a gent. : )

all the best.

DB.

#101 Joe2.0 on 02.15.17 at 10:47 pm

All desirable RE on the planet started to inflate after QE began.
That way the banks books inflate also.
And that’s great for derivatives.

#102 Stock Picker on 02.15.17 at 10:51 pm

#31 I’m not Poloz. It’s not just that certain faction of newly arrived religious males who are not willing to work with woman who are clamouring for welfare. They don’t want their wives working anywhere where males are present….and the government of Canada is willing to support this not only Ontario Works. Today we have a motion under debate in our democratic parliament that is trying to have the mere mention of that religions many problems made a criminal act as …..”phobic”. It seems we have a new ethnic minority that the government is eager to ghettoize…. Free speech in Canada is dead under Justin Trudeau and his handler…..Rasputin Butts.

#103 VITALI on 02.15.17 at 10:56 pm

B.C. home sales levels ‘back to normal’
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/home-sales-1.3984911

so much hype for nothing , who’s wrong here . ????

#104 For those about to flop... on 02.15.17 at 11:02 pm

#84 bdwy sktrn on 02.15.17 at 9:53 pm
23xx NANAIMO STREET $1,18x sell$1,18x (small lot on a major 4 lane)
DOM 1.

170x E 37TH AVENUE $1,29x sell$1,37x
DOM 14

65 E 48TH AVENUE $1,49x sell$1,73x
DOM 12

the phoenix rises. toronto will NEVER surpass the mighty 604.

12 months since peak volume – prices holding elevated levels.

/////////////////////////////////

Broadway, you seem to have accidentally left out the fact that the only one with the complete address went for 100k less than assessment.

They might as well had the asking price as two jelly beans and some belly button lint…

M42BC

#105 john in mtl on 02.15.17 at 11:04 pm

@ #63 acdel on 02.15.17 at 8:40 pm – On the passing of Stuart McLean.

Wow, acdel; are you ever waking long, long dormant memories! Nearly 47 years ago, in fact! When I was about 14, I was in a foster home along with 6 other boys about my age. This foster home environment was modeled on Summerhill; and Stuart spent about 1 to 1 1/2 years with us, in his very early twenties while at uni. He was the live-in “Big Brother” most of us never had. I remember him fondly, he was an easy and outgoing Dude, always a smile and a joke, something to cheer us up. A beautiful young man, full of joy and optimism. I never realized how far he had gone in his own life; having gone back mostly to my french roots and culture once I left the home. Sad that he is gone, at a fairly young age too.

I will surely fall asleep tonight thinking of him. May he rest in peace.

Sorry Garth, for hiijacking your blog for a paragraph. I just had to say something about this event.

#106 traderJim on 02.15.17 at 11:18 pm

#93 Harold

Another completely transparent person full of envy and dislike for people who made money while they didn’t.

“Those people buying in Toronto don’t deserve their gains, take them away, then I can be happy again”

I wouldn’t be so disgusted with that attitude if you even pretended to wish instead of punishing people who made good decisions (like living and buying in Toronto) you wished for some success for yourself.

But no, like a typical socialist you want everyone to be equally poor.

I’ll hold back from telling you how I really feel…

#107 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.15.17 at 11:19 pm

#93 Harold Svenson on 02.15.17 at 10:13 pm

I hope T2 slaps capital gains on principal residences, regardless.
—–

Swedish by any chance?

#108 Metaxa on 02.15.17 at 11:26 pm

#95 Trader Jim
It kills me that you don’t even realize your post demonstrates perfectly that there is no meaningful difference between PCs, Liberals, NDpers.

Jim, Jim, Jim…I’m 72 now, been a card carrying PC member all my adult life, thick and thin, until Harper was allowed to hoover it up.

Only time I strayed was in voting for Otto Lang…neighbour of mine at the time and one of the finest human beings I have ever met.

Anyway, don’t need any lectures from the likes of you and as you state you have no interest in Canadian politics ergo you have zero credibility to make comment on my observations.

My comments had zero to do with your man Trump yet half your post consists of you licking his boots…take your economic collapse crap and Trump love and pull it out somewhere it matters.

My post was on the realities of how to get the CPC back into contention, politically, in Canada. Folks like you aren’t helping in that matter.

That is a fact.

#109 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.15.17 at 11:37 pm

#16 Shifty on 02.15.17 at 6:38 pm
But Toronto’s nice chief city planner said on your favorite station (bnn) that a bubble does not exist. Who do we believe… a politician or an economist…. hmmmmm…..
———-
O.k.
Cut the suspense. Who is it.
Harper?

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.15.17 at 11:50 pm

Garth,
Completely enjoind the snarky, sarcastic comments by the deplorable blog dogs on the survey blog yesterday.
Today, not so much.
Boring.

#111 DON on 02.15.17 at 11:57 pm

#103 VITALI on 02.15.17 at 10:56 pm

B.C. home sales levels ‘back to normal’
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/home-sales-1.3984911

so much hype for nothing , who’s wrong here . ????
*********************

Just wondering if you read the article> Two of the usual real estate cheerleaders BCREA and Central one….trying to say last year sales weren’t normal…this year sales are normal again. Geezus. Remember to check under the hood before buying that lemon.

#112 Metaxa on 02.16.17 at 12:09 am

But no, like a typical socialist you want everyone to be equally poor.

You just finished telling me I didn’t realize that there is no difference between C, L, NDP yet here we are using “socialist” as a pejorative. Is the guy you try to insult a socialist Con or a socialist Lib or a socialist NDPer? Does it even matter to most?

Try this on; Like a typical Canadian we want everyone to be well off…so lets build back the CPC to cut government waste, implement programs that will address the core of poverty, especially childhood poverty instead of building a industry around it and hold a philosophy that encourages innovation, entrepreneurship and small business. Let’s stop being dismissive and divisive and be a party of true inclusion by making sure we don’t get too far ahead before we look back and see if anyone needs some help getting to where we are.

No one wants each and every person to hold the exact same income, that is nuts, but no one should desire a US style economy that willfully uses the poor to increase their wealth.

Terry Pratchett has a simple illustration: someone with some funds can buy a good set of boots that will keep him warm and dry for years while a poor man can only afford cheap boots that wear out and leak after a short time, requiring replacement any times before the more expensive boots wear out. The rich guy ends up spending less money overall.

The well off Canadian in me wants the guy who picks up my garbage every Friday to have good boots. It serves us both well.

#113 DON on 02.16.17 at 12:12 am

Yikes…..

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/premier-s-hacking-allegations-hit-close-to-home-for-sister-of-roderick-macisaac-1.3984560

Politics gone really really morally bankrupt.

#114 DON on 02.16.17 at 12:16 am

#58 Vancouver Dudes on 02.15.17 at 8:18 pm

http://globalnews.ca/news/3248376/immigration-from-abroad-rest-of-canada-adds-to-ontarios-housing-crunch/

AND UP SHE GOES……
**********************

You do know what the problem here is – you are still watch the Global Enquirer. Global BC still hypes the market they don’t pretend to tell you the real news. Cat up tree, Rain in Vancouver….blah blah blah The CNN of Canada.

#115 Fortune500 on 02.16.17 at 12:19 am

RIP Stuart McLean, my Canadian summers will never be quite the same. Thank you for the memories and for the laughs.

#116 DON on 02.16.17 at 12:24 am

Hey Flop

Have you checked out the Scottish sitcom “Still Game” can stream from youtube but more episodes from Putlocker.is Funny stuff! About a group of scottish pensioners going about life.

I see Bdwy Strn is back and in perfect form.

How does Bdwy know the sales prices so fast…you mentioned it might take months to get the numbers????

#117 WUL on 02.16.17 at 12:31 am

Speaking of Peter Lougheed, how many blog dogs have commented here that regardless of political stripe, they would support Hon. Turner, M.P. P.C., R.G.* in a return to the political fray? Lots. This mild Lefty would in a New York and Estevan minute.

* Reasonable Gentleman.

#118 For those about to flop... on 02.16.17 at 12:51 am

Pink Snow falling in Burnaby.

This townhouse was picked up for 645k in June 2016.

Staring at a sizeable loss, but might have lowered it so much to get the foam frothing.

My theory is they just took 88k off to show Broadway that there is nothing to see here and we should all just move along…

M42BC

21-6878 Southpoint Drive, Burnaby

Nov 2:$668,000
Feb 15: $580,000
Change: – 88000.00 -13%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDAxQ1dGRQ==

#119 Nonplused on 02.16.17 at 1:06 am

#49 Metaxa

I’m going to vote that your “fair share” is a lot higher.

#120 MouldyinYVR on 02.16.17 at 1:17 am

‘courage mon vieux’……this too shall pass……..

#121 bdy sktn on 02.16.17 at 1:25 am

#60 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.15.17 at 8:30 pmYou sir, are an idiot.

Here is a Democrat summing up the situation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7j_ZfKmcnSk

……….
Wow. Thank you. Amazing.

Civil war in Washington. Cia vs white house.
Military answers to trump. They will protect him. Cia budget in serious jeproady

#122 Trumpster on 02.16.17 at 1:30 am

A house tax on the non-primary residence. I’m OK with that. How about taxing 100% of the profits on that, I think I can live with that.

Thank you Trudeau for working had to make things a little bit more even. The Millennials owe you big time in the next election.

And you didn’t even get your !23 kicked by Trump, very impressive so far.

#123 Hairhead on 02.16.17 at 1:39 am

to Steven H. @ 81:

First, you’ve got 2 things wrong. a) house is 30 years old, not 38. b) 40K renos fixed problem completely (screwed up draining in roof, sending water through house).

Second, ANYTHING “West” is 50%-100% more desirable than “East Van.” That includes 33-foot standard lots. As for myself, I rent a 50’s bungalow at Oak and 41st. Current assessment is $3.8 million. My wife’s parents’ East Van teardown on a 33-foot lot will be up for sale at 1.5 million.

This place is NUTS, get it — NUTS!

#124 Tony on 02.16.17 at 2:22 am

Re: #35 Today’s Market on 02.15.17 at 7:06 pm

Home prices in Edmonton, Alberta are less today than they were ten years ago and falling fast.

#125 Tony on 02.16.17 at 2:31 am

Re: #91 traderJim on 02.15.17 at 10:07 pm

After reading this comment I’m 100 percent maybe even 110 percent certain the GTA market peaked today. Note February 16th 2017 was the absolute peak day for GTA real estate. Talk about not seeing the forest for the trees…

#126 BillyBob on 02.16.17 at 3:11 am

#49 Metaxa on 02.15.17 at 7:48 pm
All you posters worried about “your fair share” seem to be mostly concerned with the fact that you don’t get to decide what your fair share is.

Just like they do in New Zealand?
Or Britain?
Australia?

You want to build a wall with your wealth, you want to decide who gets what portion of what you deem yours?

Understand that historically and culturally Canada hasn’t been to involved with wall building, rather we build bigger tables so all can eat.

The things you worry about are not conservatism, not pragmatic solutions. They are fairly contrary to the precepts that made this country…the country in which you grew your wealth and seemingly prospered.

====================================

My own experience has been precisely the opposite. In Canada I struggled to make ends meet and do more than live hand to mouth. I refused to take on debt, so made do with less than many, but I wanted more than to just survive. I left Canada out of desperation, not really intentionally, but it has turned out to have brought far more prosperity, far more personal, professional, and financial opportunities than I ever had, or ever would have, in Canada. Yes, some of that is a result of starting in Canada, but it is laughable to portray Canada as a land of opportunity where effort is remotely tied to advancement. Perhaps it was once, but from all outward appearances it’s racing away from that now towards the lowest common denominator.

When I look from outside the borders now at what I see in Canada, I see record debt, out of control housing, stagnating wages, dimming job prospects, and desperate, obvious government intent to try and take from some to give to others.

All to say, that your taking shots at those concerned with trying to preserve some of what they have, is an inaccurate, gross generalization. I’m glad the “Canadian Way” has worked out for you, it certainly has not for many, including myself.

I’m just not sure how many times extreme socialism (I will be generous and avoid the “c” word) has to be tried to discover that it doesn’t work.

#127 Euro observer on 02.16.17 at 5:29 am

#9 cecilhenry on 02.15.17 at 6:16 pm
I am fed up with hearing about the hypocrisy of paying ‘your fair share’;
——————————–
Fair share is what government bureaucrats who never worked a real job in their life think you own them and their masters politicians.

They think they own you and scare you with their assessment of your taxes.

The statement basically means: be scared,we are coming for you, establishing culture of fear and obedience.

the people should not be afraid of their governments, the governments should be afraid of the people.

If I am in power I will fire immediately all these idiots talking about ‘fair shares.’ Where is the fair share of the price appreciation on the principle residence you idiots?

I pity the few working still decent jobs who have to pay the bill for all the unionized parasites, baby boomers and the well-fare class represented here as ‘middle’ class.

There is no middle class left in Canada family of 2 doctors/no kids can not afford a house in the f..ng suburbs of a shi..ty city/GTA.

Even brain dead and brain frozen can see sit but everyone keep going with the flow.

#128 anc0dia on 02.16.17 at 6:37 am

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17806879/313-CAMBRIDGE-Road-W-Crystal-Beach-Ontario-L0S1B0

The insanity is occurring out in the waste lands on Niagara too. Don’t let the name of the town fool you, the location is a ghetto.

Selling for 250k with a 2016 assessed value of 105k. That’s an increase of 240% in 1 year. Now to be fair they did do work to the interior but the buyer has no idea of the quality and won’t have much recourse if things go bad. Caveat emptor.

The question I have is how the banks are permitted to finance this sale. How do they not see this as a huge risk?

I think of it in terms of investing in the stock market : Imagine buying a $8 NAV stock for $20 with the buyer putting down as little as $1 and the bank putting up the rest on margin. Sure the buyer could sell if the market turns but the stock could take 30-60 or more days to sell and who knows what the final price will be. And the bank will be responsible for collecting the difference from the buyer.

How is this not seen as a huge risk by the banks? By the government? By the buyer??

The seller, of course, is laughing all the way to the bank.

#129 Wrk.dover on 02.16.17 at 7:11 am

#46 Hairhead on 02.15.17 at 7:42 pm

One offer was for $2.8 mill, but they turned it down because cash buyer wanted them out in two weeks. Accepted 2nd offer for 2.6 million, with 3 months to find a new place.

—————————————————–

So they can turn down $200,000 tax free dollars to stay put for three months. ( that would be turning down $2200/day tax free for three months by the way.)

Either made up or fiction you choose. People don’t come that stupid, except for upper level govt. managers.

#130 Victor V on 02.16.17 at 7:21 am

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02/15/vancouver-average-house-price-january-2017_n_14775268.html?ncid=engmodushpmg00000006

Half the money circulating through Vancouver’s housing market has vanished in the past year, causing a steep drop in sales, now followed by a decline in prices.

The average resale price in Greater Vancouver was $878,242 in January, down 18.9 per cent from a year earlier, when it stood at $1.038 million, according to numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association.

#131 OMERS on 02.16.17 at 8:07 am

what’s that song……Go on take the money and run woo wuuuu wuuuu……

#132 Reply to #95 on 02.16.17 at 8:12 am

Do you really think that “… Trump … is [our] last hope to turn things around….”? Really?

Take a minute, and click the link below to watch and listen to Trump’s “Bing bing, bong” speeches.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcmPvf9RJlM

We’d have more hope from the Knights who say “Ni!”

#133 traderJim on 02.16.17 at 8:24 am

#112 Metaxa

“You just finished telling me I didn’t realize that there is no difference between C, L, NDP” Correct. No MEANINGFUL difference. You, claiming to be a conservative, illustrate my point perfectly.

“yet here we are using “socialist” as a pejorative. Is the guy you try to insult a socialist Con or a socialist Lib or a socialist NDPer? Does it even matter to most?”

Correct again. Yes Socialism is an immoral political ideology based on the idea that I do not have a right to my own life and my own property, so it’s definitely a pejorative and as you so aptly demonstrate, the main concepts of socialism have been accepted as gospel by all parties (except the libertarians I suppose).

I’m sure there are members of the PC’s who are actually true conservatives, or even some that are somewhat libertarian, but a lot seem to be senile muddleheads who don’t have a clue what principles are.

I’m a classical liberal, meaning I actually believe in liberty and that people should be free to do as they please so long as they don’t harm others.

My half hearted support for Trump (I disagree with probably half his populist ideas, such as tariffs on trade) only appears to be more than it is because I am continually astonished at just how far the fascist left will go to distort the truth, protest violently and destroy fundamental human and constitutional rights such as that to free speech.

As the anti-Trumpers hysteria leads them to ever greater levels of insanity (openly calling for his assassination, armed resurrection, a CIA coup, widespread censorship etc etc) I find myself thinking Trump is the last bastion before the USA falls into a leftist authoritarian state.

Before this whole Trump thing, I was completely blase about the prospect of the Democrats turning into extremists willing to abandon the US constitution completely.

My eyes have been opened.

So, much as I would prefer to be defending a President who is not such an egotistical boor, I find the anti-Trumpers to be so frightening that I am considering actually travelling to the USA to actively campaign for the guy when the time comes.

And you claim that PC’s not bowing down to socialists is causing people to flee to the left. What a joke. If you have to become the left to stop people from fleeing to your opposition you have already lost.

I don’t expect you to be able to understand that, but other people do.

#134 Felix on 02.16.17 at 8:25 am

Ah yes, another photo of a brilliant pooch demonstrating its Trumpian IQ.

Maybe 15? Less?

Meanwhile, cats continue to take over quietly. When stupid pro-canine racists finally realize it, it will be too late, hahahah :)

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/02/15/for-the-first-time-ever-cats-had-a-place-at-the-westminster-ken/21713971/

#135 TurnerNation on 02.16.17 at 8:27 am

Oh how the champagne socialist lefties are screeching their screed. “Pay your fair share” (to a corrupted Sunshine list of a 2nd World country.)
– Highest power and telecom costs of the world.
– Many 3rd world countries have a better equipped military than ours.

I was in a downtown E.R. hospital . Shocking. Waiting room was plastered with plaques thanking donors for this space. Even the ELEVATOR had a sign: donated by…

WTF? I’m paying up to 60c of every $1 in taxes in my bracket. Doctors pay for their own education, and now hospital must beg private donors for basic equipment, and hold yearly fund raising campaigns?
Only answer is graft and corrupution siphoning it off.
(Every drive on Montreal’s roads?)

I’ll be riding a Toronto streetcar as old as me today. Why: Bombardier was ‘bailed out’ but is year ahead delivering new streetcars. Nothing to see here folks…

M41ON

#136 maxx on 02.16.17 at 8:29 am

……”Residential real estate values have created windfall wealth, skewed neighbourhoods and whole cities, led directly to $2 trillion in household debt, fomented xenophobia and Trump-lust……”

Apart from making for a $hit-miserable population with nearly no other goal in life than to “own” a home, that’s a truly sick proportion of cash sitting absolutely paralyzed in a morbidly obese segment of the Canadian economy. Mortgage debt is calcified around a single asset, leaving precious little for much else for far too many crazed borrowers. Whilst retail and the service industry are suffering, second-hand stores have gone mainstream, many classed as charity shops that charge zero tax.
(Side note: for those who think that they are junk shops, my latest find on Monday is a massive sterling cuff bracelet, by George Phillips, valued at over $700US- for 13 bucks. Plus a real Coach bag for $10. These places are loaded with great and practical buys. )

Money isn’t doing what it’s supposed to: slipping and sliding around all of the gears in all sectors of a healthy economy, producing profit and tax revenue.

Rather than raise rates to restore balance, the brilliant, all-knowing masters of this fiscal carnage engage in convoluted, anything-but-higher-rates doohickey finance that bring increasingly damaging results.

Finessing, tiny-step measures and lightly blowing downward on interest rate levers don’t work.

Central bankers are a fiscal train wreck.

For the sake of Canada, CMHC should immediately decouple completely from insuring mortgages.

#137 Samantha on 02.16.17 at 8:43 am

“Sounds like the “house tax” you mentioned is very real.”

—————————————————-

More fear mongering and wishful thinking at the same time – there will never be a blanket capital gain tax on a primary residence. If you are a house flipper, and/or you are selling a house that is NOT your primary residence, then CRA might/should tax you on capital gains, however this is just enforcing existing rules. So no, there won’t be any capital gain tax on primary residences.

#138 traderJim on 02.16.17 at 8:45 am

For anyone who doesn’t think the anti-Trump hysteria is a serious threat to democracy, no need to take my word for it, here’s a former DEMOCRATIC candidate for the US Presidency, on the intelligence community’s attempts at overthrowing the US President:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7j_ZfKmcnSk

If that prospect doesn’t frighten you, I don’t know what will.

Just astonishing to see the left now becoming the war mongers, and supporters of the CIA no less.

Meanwhile the military industrial complex is also watching in gleeful astonishment as the left does their dirty work for them.

They want a war, and it looks like they will stop at nothing to get it.

Just amazing that the Dems will be the ones backing it and the GOP will be split.

#139 tkid on 02.16.17 at 9:03 am

#132, Trump is currently the only politician in the US talking about fixing the infrastructure. I know he’s a lunatic, but he’s the only one who is focused on an issue that needs to be addressed.

That dam in California that had both of its spillways fail is one example; tptb knew about the spillways 12 years ago but failed to fix it and now a 6 million dollar fix will cost over 200 million.

Ontario is the same; our bridges are in need of overhauls, the water system needs upgrading, the electrical, etc, but where will the money come from?

#140 traderJim on 02.16.17 at 9:19 am

#125 Tony

If you are so sure you could make a fortune shorting some sub prime lenders or the big banks. If you don’t have any real money you could buy some puts.

As for me, I’m thinking a sever shortage of listings, which I have never seen before, is unlikely to lead to a crash tomorrow.

But good luck basing your financial future on random guesses by anonymous internet posters!

#141 traderJim on 02.16.17 at 9:22 am

#131 Trump is the last hope

Yup, I am as incredulous as you are.

Amazing that things got so bad and the left took things so far that a guy like Trump could get elected, and despite massive media opposition and the lack of support from his own party, he has better approval ratings than Obama ever had.

The world’s gone mad, and maybe just maybe, it’s a good thing.

#142 Renter's Revenge! on 02.16.17 at 9:26 am

#119 Nonplused on 02.16.17 at 1:06 am
#49 Metaxa

I’m going to vote that your “fair share” is a lot higher.

================

Another one I like is rich people saying, “(now that I’ve got mine) let’s protect the environment.”

#143 Paul on 02.16.17 at 9:27 am

#70 Paul on 02.15.17 at 9:08 pm

#58 Vancouver Dude

No matter what anyone says about the market not being driven by immigration are just wrong.
350000 to 400,000 newcomers that need a roof over their head is as Joe Biden said is big F’fn deal.
Not racist just a fact.

Speaking of facts, we welcomed 271,200 new permanent residents in 2015, or 54,000 families. Similar last year. That’s 0.75% of the population. — Garth
———————————————————-
You are right, I got the numbers from a site that double counted the refugees,
This is the official site.

http://www.cicnews.com/2016/10/immigration-plan-2017-canada-increased-immigrants-through-economic-family-sponsorship-programs-108621.html

#144 DJ on 02.16.17 at 9:31 am

To Mextaca. “I’ve got mine, F you.”

Discribes my neighbour.
He has a beautiful vegetable garden. ( I don’t )
He gets all pissy when I help myself to carrots and turnips, but I figure he owes me right? He has to pay up his fair share right ?

#145 Penny Henny on 02.16.17 at 9:54 am

And a sale price of $900,000, more than a quarter million over asking.-GT

Lucky sure lived up to his name!

#146 traderJim on 02.16.17 at 10:28 am

#137 Samantha

Normally I would agree with you that a tax on principal residences will never happen (and it is unlikely, no doubt).

But look at half the commenters on this blog: No talk of how we can all become wealthier and more productive. Lots of talk of how they would sure like to see the government take some money off their rich neighbour.

Classic signs of a socialist mindset.

The USA still has one last chance, I’d say Canada is doomed.

But like most wealthy and forward looking people, I am well prepared for it. I might even profit from it.

No doubt the whiners and complainers will criticize the fact that I am prepared to profit from the disaster that they insist on creating against my will.

#147 Reply to #117 on 02.16.17 at 10:39 am

Leave the man alone; he’s 87.

#148 Capt. Serious on 02.16.17 at 10:50 am

#95 traderJim

Until Trump, who is the last hope to turn things around before total economic collapse.

Trump is on record as promising spending to the moon. This is not the conservative you’re looking for.

#149 Capt. Serious on 02.16.17 at 10:52 am

#136 maxx

Central bankers are a fiscal train wreck.

This is funny because central bankers do not set fiscal policy.

#150 For those about to flop... on 02.16.17 at 11:15 am

DON

Hey Flop

I see Bdwy Strn is back and in perfect form.

How does Bdwy know the sales prices so fast…you mentioned it might take months to get the numbers????

////////////////////////////

Morning Don,to answer your question, Broadway stated the other day that he contacts a realtor to get the details.

The reason I stated a couple of months is because after everything is settled it takes roughly that long to be entered into the official database.

One of the houses we were talking about up-thread had already been sold ,but then the deal fell through, so you have to wait to see when the dust settles.

Let’s not kid ourselves there is still tonnes of money being made in Vancouver real estate.

There is a sense of entitlement that you must make your fair share and there are enough Crealievers that believe that although real estate is at nosebleed levels, it always goes up and you will get your payout when your time comes.

Things only become evident to a lot of people late last year that we were about to have some sort of correction, so most people aren’t panicking yet, but as I have shown multiple times the folks that over extended themselves and in a lot of cases simply overpaid are doing what they have to do to save themselves.

The reason I have stated roughly January 2015 as the date at the moment where people are on notice,is because case after case in my research I have discovered that they overpaid by so much, the bloated 2016 assessment barely covered their number after a 25/30% increase in the assessment.

Some people are going to be popping the champagne….some people are going to be crying in their cornflakes…

M42BC

#151 bill on 02.16.17 at 11:19 am

#115 Fortune500 on 02.16.17 at 12:19 am
the stories!!
my favourite was when the eggnogs got switched…the spiked ‘nog going to the children….
or daves christmas turkey…
he made me laugh out loud!

#152 Hairhead on 02.16.17 at 11:21 am

Hey wek.Dover at #61.

Did I not say that the market here is NUTS?

I agree they should have taken the 2.8 mill, or the 2.6; and NOT bought another house. “It’s at the peak!” I tell them, “Just starting the roller-coaster down!” I say!

Nope. They just gotta have a house, instead of the $100,000 yearly income they’d have from investing their windfall (after paying off the mortgage.) This whole blog is about crazy house-horniness, and how people are making really irrational decisions. My story is yet another example.

BTW, saying that “senior government managers” are stupid is right-wing mouthbreathing fairytaling. Stupidity is, as far as I can tell evenly distributed across all parts of society.

#153 Rainclouds on 02.16.17 at 11:24 am

Painfully Obvious govt isnt interested in addressing the inaccurate and misleading “data” spewed out by the self interested entities. Clarke and Wynne must be horrified of a rush to the exits.

The Feds need to step up, Given the provincial governments in ONT and BC cannot be trusted to do what is best for the consumer .

It should be quite simple to create and enforce a law (national) where all RE boards provide the same data that illustrates an accurate rendering of transactions and pricing removing the real or perceived potential for abuse.

OR the competition board can render a decision opening up MLS access .10 Years is ridiculous given the precedent (Zillow) has been around at least that long.

As someone wrote here a few days ago, when this blows lots of angry people will be asking pointed questions and it will be ugly…..conclusion to be reached? we are governed by lazy self interested morons in the back pocket of a sleazy organization.

#154 darkselling on 02.16.17 at 11:28 am

“We are also improving tax fairness by ensuring that the principal residence exemption is available only in appropriate cases, so that everybody pays their fair share.”

How I interpret that is they’re going to enforce the principal residence exemption, not take it away.
People are “supposed” to pay no income tax on the principal residence, which isn’t supposed to include flips, speculative purchases, new condo’s that are never moved into etc.

As you’ve (Garth) pointed out time after time, houses are expensive money pits (maintenance, taxes, interest, condo fees, etc.). If Revenue Canada ever wanted to start taxing the principal residence people would have all these expenses they’ve accumulated over the years that would show how little they’ve actually made (during normal times).

I owned a townhouse for 7 years, paid the mortgage, taxes, condo fees, sold it for $15,000 over the purchase price and likely broke even. I took out a nice bunch of equity but only because I was paying down the mortgage.
My interest, condo fees, taxes, R&M, realtor fees was likely more than the $15,000 I sold the condo for, but less than 7 years of renting. So I was marginally ahead.

Take that math to Revenue Canada and there’d be nothing left on my $15,000 capital gain to pay taxes on. In fact I could have gone for a capital loss after all expenses.

So, in normal times it should likely prove to be moot and show how much houses cost in normal times. Basically an efficient way to save money for those who can’t do it via TFSA’s, RRSP, Pensions, or simply investment accounts.

#155 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 02.16.17 at 11:30 am

GET READY FOR HIGHER MORTGAGE RATES THIS YEAR IN CANADA.

Yes, thanks to Yellen’s talk yesterday, the US Fed is now forecasting 3-4 interest rate hikes this year. The odds are now 43% for a March hike.

Why this is important to Canadians?

As Garth has stated, the BOC follows the FED over 80% of the time. Canadian fixed rate mortgages are based on US Treasury Bills (25 year), as they move up, so does our fixed mortgage rates.

To sum up:

Higher rates = lower house prices.

#156 Samantha on 02.16.17 at 11:32 am

#146 traderJim on 02.16.17 at 10:28 am

Yes Jim, I agree with you – lots of envy and misplaced anger towards people that play the game well and make money from it. On top of that instead of pointing out the real culprits of the housing bubble – easy money, and government over-regulation, it seems the only solution for many commenters here is surprise…more government regulation and commie wealth redistribution. Really sad state of affairs indeed…

#157 Metaxa on 02.16.17 at 11:48 am

#133 Trader Jim
I don’t expect you to be able to understand that, but other people do.

“Other people” always with the ad hominem, right?

#144 DJ

To Mextaca. “I’ve got mine, F you.”

Discribes my neighbour.
He has a beautiful vegetable garden. ( I don’t )
He gets all pissy when I help myself to carrots and turnips, but I figure he owes me right? He has to pay up his fair share right ?

How anyone could conflate private property rights with the rights and duties of a citizen and feel they have made a point is symptomatic of the issue…apparently I’m less of a conservative (or not one at all) because Jim says so and I also promote theft of private property because that is all DJ can obtain from my comments.

Intellectual speciousness at its finest on display here.
Sort of exhibit 1 and 2 as to why the CPC is in trouble in this country.

#158 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 11:53 am

#144 DJ on 02.16.17 at 9:31 am
To Mextaca. “I’ve got mine, F you.”

Discribes my neighbour.
He has a beautiful vegetable garden. ( I don’t )
He gets all pissy when I help myself to carrots and turnips, but I figure he owes me right? He has to pay up his fair share right ?
____________________________________________

No shit, I was in my neighbours garage the other day starting up his snow blower (I have only a shovel). You should have heard him carrying on! It was like I actually needed to lead him by the hand back to my garage to show him the shovel! WTF is with some people?

#159 conan on 02.16.17 at 11:53 am

RE: #138 traderJim on 02.16.17 at 8:45 am

Looking very much like the most powerful nation on Earth has a fifth column problem. Perhaps a powerful cabal made up of high level intelligence sources and corrupt/insane parts of the military industrial complex.

It is like being a Siamese twin, and you never know if your other half is going to suddenly punch someone in the head.

Neophyte Trump vs fifth column of lunatics….. not good.

#160 Wrk.dover on 02.16.17 at 11:54 am

#46 Hairhead on 02.15.17 at 7:42 pm

One offer was for $2.8 mill, but they turned it down because cash buyer wanted them out in two weeks. Accepted 2nd offer for 2.6 million, with 3 months to find a new place.

—————————————————–

#129 Wrk.dover on 02.16.17 at 7:11 am

So they can turn down $200,000 tax free dollars to stay put for three months. ( that would be turning down $2200/day tax free for three months by the way.)

Either made up or fiction you choose. People don’t come that stupid, except for upper level govt. managers.

——————————————

This thing is still really bothering me a lot more than it should……couldn’t they have even just walked away from their contents for the 200 grand? No way that there are people this stupid. This one is like when a song gets locked in your head for me.

#161 SeeB on 02.16.17 at 11:57 am

#144 DJ on 02.16.17 at 9:31 am
To Mextaca. “I’ve got mine, F you.”

Discribes my neighbour.
He has a beautiful vegetable garden. ( I don’t )
He gets all pissy when I help myself to carrots and turnips, but I figure he owes me right? He has to pay up his fair share right ?

————————————————–

Do you not have a garden because you choose not to grow one, or do you not have a garden because your neighbor fenced off both his and your yards?

#162 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 11:59 am

#139 tkid on 02.16.17 at 9:03 am

Ontario is the same; our bridges are in need of overhauls, the water system needs upgrading, the electrical, etc, but where will the money come from?
___________________________________________

In Ontario? The same place it always comes from. We’re getting down to a tile or two left in the well. Once overall government burden gets near 70% it’s good night…

#163 Tony on 02.16.17 at 12:07 pm

The Toronto Real Estate Board changed their published Home Price Index figures! On February 3rd, they reported the composite fell from 227.7 to 226.1 On February 14 they changed the published (February 3rd) figures to show an increase to 231.0 Seems odd (or fraudulent) that they didn’t report it as a revision. Just arbitrarily changing a price decrease to another increase.
http://www.trebhome.com

mls home price index

#164 Bark on 02.16.17 at 12:11 pm

Sounds like the CRA is going to change the rules on the fly. They have done this with TFSAs, where if they determine the account holder qualifies as a day trader based on their arbitrary criteria, gains are fully taxable.

#165 jess on 02.16.17 at 12:28 pm

“Paulson had nearly two decades of forewarning about liar’s loans. The Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) examiners in the West Region figured out that lenders made liar’s loans for fraudulent purposes in 1990, within a year of liar’s loans becoming an emerging practice among Orange County, California thrifts. We promptly began driving liar’s loans out of the industry. Akerlof and Romer’s 1993 paper contains their conclusion (and our conclusion as regulators) that only fraudulent lenders would make such loans.”

Bill Black: New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin Tries to Make Hank Paulson a Hero
Posted on February 14, 2017 by Yves Smith

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/02/bill-black-new-york-times-andrew-ross-sorkin-tries-make-tim-geithner-hero.html

300b run on money market mutual funds
https://financialreg.nd.edu/assets/153226/wermers_money_market.pdf

#166 SeeB on 02.16.17 at 12:32 pm

#131 Trump is the last hope

Yup, I am as incredulous as you are.

Amazing that things got so bad and the left took things so far that a guy like Trump could get elected, and despite massive media opposition and the lack of support from his own party, he has better approval ratings than Obama ever had.

The world’s gone mad, and maybe just maybe, it’s a good thing.

———————————————

Yeah, you are going to need to come up with a (real) source comparing Trump’s to Obama’s approval rating.

#167 DON on 02.16.17 at 12:54 pm

Congrats Garth – I take it you already knew about the greater fool blog and you being mentioned in today’s article by Don Pittis.

I take it this blog will be flooded with angry realtors, brokers etc in the coming. Brace for impact…but Bring it on!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/real-estate-canada-greater-fool-1.3983797

#168 Euro observer on 02.16.17 at 12:56 pm

#137 Samantha on 02.16.17 at 8:43 am
“Sounds like the “house tax” you mentioned is very real.”

—————————————————-

More fear mongering and wishful thinking at the same time – there will never be a blanket capital gain tax on a primary residence. If you are a house flipper, and/or you are selling a house that is NOT your primary residence, then CRA might/should tax you on capital gains, however this is just enforcing existing rules. So no, there won’t be any capital gain tax on primary -residences.
……………………………………..

I am not so sure on this one, the taxes will be pad in one form or another, either through partial appreciation on primary residence or through significantly increase property taxes.

governments are needy for tax revenue at all levels and they don’t have many options left.

If you think that not paying capital gains on your home is worse than having no doctor, think twice.

I knew a lawyer living in luxury house who died of hard attack middle aged, as she was send back home from the hospital (as the doctors were in Christmas brake and they were not able to diagnose her properly)

After all it is just if houses are primarily investment vehicles, for them to be taxed properly.

If houses were not primarily investment vehicles but utility – cheap and truly affordable, then they should be subject to lower appreciation tax.

You can’t have it both ways – only gain and no pain.

I think we did run out of sane taxpayers to subsidize this ponzi scheme – gain without pain long, looooooooong time ago.

We are now living on the fumes from the once glorious times when we actually had a functional economy.

Now we have ‘services’ and (primarily) GMO food.
Hence cancer rates/mental issues/ADHD.

soon 50 % of kids will have abnormal mental developments, consider yourself winner of the lottery if your kids are fine.

kind of explains, combined with fluoride in the water, the current housing and credit ‘boom’

In the land of the blind, the one eyed is the kind.

#169 For those about to flop... on 02.16.17 at 12:59 pm

Here’s a good one for the bored daytime crew.

The number of patents worldwide since the late 70’s

America 3 million

Canada 124k

Australia’s only patent was by the dude who decided it was a good idea to hang corks off our hats…

M42BC

https://howmuch.net

#170 Samantha on 02.16.17 at 1:15 pm

#155 Euro observer on 02.16.17 at 12:56 pm

You can’t have it both ways – only gain and no pain.

—————————————-

In Canada people pay for their mortgages with AFTER-TAX dollars. You are right, you can’t have it both ways, you either get:

1. Deduction on the interest paid on home loans from your income taxes AND capital gain tax

or

2. No interest deducation AND no capital gain tax

It’s simple really :)

#171 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 1:17 pm

#49 Metaxa on 02.15.17 at 7:48 pm
All you posters worried about “your fair share” seem to be mostly concerned with the fact that you don’t get to decide what your fair share is.

Just like they do in New Zealand?
Or Britain?
Australia?

You want to build a wall with your wealth, you want to decide who gets what portion of what you deem yours?

____________________________________________

Sorry… you’re saying that the taxpayer does NOT decide what his/her fair share is?

You’re kidding right?

Joke yes?

Serious?

#172 jess on 02.16.17 at 1:18 pm

Red Tape? … no way
How easy is it to buy a secret shell company in Canada? Very.

The Panama Papers listed Canada as a good place to incorporate an anonymous shell company. One study has shown it’s disturbingly simple to do.
http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/how-easy-is-it-to-buy-a-secret-shell-company-in-canada-very/

============================

“kiss our asses pay your taxes’ campaign
refusing to pay federal income tax until Trump releases his returns –
We will not pay: the Americans withholding their taxes to fight Trump (15 Feb 2017)

#173 Tony on 02.16.17 at 1:21 pm

Re: #140 traderJim on 02.16.17 at 9:19 am

The decline in the GTA has already begun. Published figured February 3rd for all of the GTA for January this year show a 1.6 percent decline in prices month over month. Then the figured fraudulently were revised upwards to show a gain just a few days ago. But I’ll be sending all my information to Zero Hedge so the whole world can read about it.

#174 James on 02.16.17 at 1:22 pm

#166 SeeB on 02.16.17 at 12:32 pm

#131 Trump is the last hope

Yup, I am as incredulous as you are.

Amazing that things got so bad and the left took things so far that a guy like Trump could get elected, and despite massive media opposition and the lack of support from his own party, he has better approval ratings than Obama ever had.

The world’s gone mad, and maybe just maybe, it’s a good thing.

———————————————

Yeah, you are going to need to come up with a (real) source comparing Trump’s to Obama’s approval rating.
_________________________________________
Here is the latest poop from the Great Orange One.
So Called President Trump stepped up his war Thursday on the officials leaking information about his presidency, vowing that they will be caught and punished.
“The spotlight has finally been put on the low-life leakers!” the president tweeted. “They will be caught!”
The president apparently reacted to the announcement by Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Calif., chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, that it will investigate the sources behind the story that led to this week’s resignation of National Security Adviser Michael Flynn.
Now that’s funny he encouraged leaks, and leakers when it was convenient or conducive to his political aspirations or gain. Now he wants to silence the leakers when they are undermining his reckless and totally chaotic administration. Oh yes: Puppet-string Pinocchio presidents who fib in glass White Houses really shouldn’t throw stones. After all, if there’s anyone who deserves a “so-called” appended to his title, anyone whose morphing mendacities justify the adjective dishonest, it’s one Donald John Trump.

#175 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 1:22 pm

#161 SeeB on 02.16.17 at 11:57 am
#144 DJ on 02.16.17 at 9:31 am
To Mextaca. “I’ve got mine, F you.”

Discribes my neighbour.
He has a beautiful vegetable garden. ( I don’t )
He gets all pissy when I help myself to carrots and turnips, but I figure he owes me right? He has to pay up his fair share right ?

————————————————–

Do you not have a garden because you choose not to grow one, or do you not have a garden because your neighbor fenced off both his and your yards?
_____________________________________

That analogy sucks big time.

#176 James on 02.16.17 at 1:26 pm

#162 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 11:59 am

#139 tkid on 02.16.17 at 9:03 am

Ontario is the same; our bridges are in need of overhauls, the water system needs upgrading, the electrical, etc, but where will the money come from?
___________________________________________

In Ontario? The same place it always comes from. We’re getting down to a tile or two left in the well. Once overall government burden gets near 70% it’s good night…
__________________________________________
We are going to get all of our $$ from Wynde Power, she did build of of those totally useless expensive wind generators. There is a hell of a lot of hot air blowing from Queens Park lately.

#177 Euro observer on 02.16.17 at 1:28 pm

#149 Capt. Serious on 02.16.17 at 10:52 am
#136 maxx

Central bankers are a fiscal train wreck.

This is funny because central bankers do not set fiscal policy.

—————————–

This is funny, as here is The ‘Central Banker’ himself talking about fiscal policies:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/greenspan-us-cannot-afford-spend-145100347.html

#178 Dave F on 02.16.17 at 1:29 pm

#175 James on 02.16.17 at 1:26 pm

More like once the government burden gets to 70% they’ll hammer us with more taxes.

#179 Euro observer on 02.16.17 at 1:36 pm

#170 Samantha on 02.16.17 at 1:15 pm
#155 Euro observer on 02.16.17 at 12:56 pm

You can’t have it both ways – only gain and no pain.

—————————————-

In Canada people pay for their mortgages with AFTER-TAX dollars. You are right, you can’t have it both ways, you either get:

1. Deduction on the interest paid on home loans from your income taxes AND capital gain tax

or

2. No interest deducation AND no capital gain tax

It’s simple really :)

———————————

In your case I can graciously assume it is due to the fluoride in the water.

Think about it and mobilize all 2 neurons in your brain:
What if you paid your house outright e.g. no mortgage?

Than would/should your capital gains be taxable?

Why is the interest on the money you save in the bank taxable (you paid the taxes before saving it)?

Even RRSP gains are taxable on withdrawal, so you have deferred taxes but not no taxes.

#180 Euro observer on 02.16.17 at 1:41 pm

#170 Samantha on 02.16.17 at 1:15 pm

BTW you post is exactly the reason why primary residences should be taxed on capital gains as people see buying a house as an investment, not as an utility, i.e. shelter.

I will forward it the wild Bill.

#181 bdwy sktrn on 02.16.17 at 1:45 pm

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

trump is EVISCERATING the press in a live press conference right now – SLAMMING extraordinaire

“very fake news”=cnn

he’s now in total control.

#182 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 2:10 pm

#135 TurnerNation on 02.16.17 at 8:27 am
Oh how the champagne socialist lefties are screeching their screed. “Pay your fair share” (to a corrupted Sunshine list of a 2nd World country.)
– Highest power and telecom costs of the world.
– Many 3rd world countries have a better equipped military than ours.

I was in a downtown E.R. hospital . Shocking. Waiting room was plastered with plaques thanking donors for this space. Even the ELEVATOR had a sign: donated by…

WTF? I’m paying up to 60c of every $1 in taxes in my bracket. Doctors pay for their own education, and now hospital must beg private donors for basic equipment, and hold yearly fund raising campaigns?
Only answer is graft and corrupution siphoning it off.
(Every drive on Montreal’s roads?)

I’ll be riding a Toronto streetcar as old as me today. Why: Bombardier was ‘bailed out’ but is year ahead delivering new streetcars. Nothing to see here folks…

M41ON
_________________________________________

Same thing out my way, fundraisers and begging 24/7, meanwhile all you hear about is cuts and debt.
Seems like everything government touches is broke and begging for money.

#183 Steven H on 02.16.17 at 2:21 pm

#123 Hairhead/#160 WRk Dover
This thing is still really bothering me a lot more than it should……couldn’t they have even just walked away from their contents for the 200 grand? No way that there are people this stupid. This one is like when a song gets locked in your head for me.
————————————————–
Sorry, but the numbers still don’t make sense to me. Old house 65 E 48th on 33 X 122 lot just sold for $1.73 Million. So lets agree that standard lot just 2 blocks west of main and very near South Van is worth $1.7 million as house is virtually worthless.
Why would someone offer $2.8 million for a 30 year old house on land similarly located? The extra $1.1 million could be used to build you a brand new house instead of getting a 30 year old house in need of work.
I’m with WRK dover, the numbers don’t seem to make sense.

#184 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 2:28 pm

#178 Dave F on 02.16.17 at 1:29 pm
#175 James on 02.16.17 at 1:26 pm

More like once the government burden gets to 70% they’ll hammer us with more taxes.
__________________________________________

~70% is a reasonably well agreed upon maximum tax burden a government can charge without causing a real potential for loss in revenue. At this overall level, folks do all kinds of things to avoid, evade, supplement, or throw in the work towel altogether.

Would you work 40 hours a week for $1000.00 and then give 700.00 of it to the government? That’s not a tough call. If you paid all taxation as one tax bill every week like this example, and everyone knew exactly how hard they were getting it, many more would be avoiding than currently are.

Thankfully, there are ways to improve your situation if you have the tools, the resources, and the creativity to do so.

#185 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 2:31 pm

We are going to get all of our $$ from Wynde Power, she did build of of those totally useless expensive wind generators. There is a hell of a lot of hot air blowing from Queens Park lately.
______________________________________

Even more hot air coming from Ontario voters. Unless there is real fear in the air come 2018, the Libs will be voted back in again.

#186 InvestorsFriend on 02.16.17 at 2:31 pm

Euro Observer spreads fake news about RRSPs

Euro Observer said:

“Even RRSP gains are taxable on withdrawal, so you have deferred taxes but not no taxes.”

**************************************
That is fake news as the math has been presented plenty of times to show that the tax refund effectively funds a portion of “your” RRSP and as long as your marginal tax rate on withdrawal is lower than your marginal tax rate when the money was contributed. (And it usually will be as the majority of people will be earning 30% or more less in retirement) then not only goes your net share of the RRSP grow tax free it actually does a bit better than a TSFA and therefore your portion incurs negative taxes on the growth.

This is the math. Stop spreading fake news about RRSPs especially after I provided you with the mathematical proof several times.

#187 bdwy sktrn on 02.16.17 at 2:34 pm

#144 DJ on 02.16.17 at 9:31 am
To Mextaca. “I’ve got mine, F you.”

Discribes my neighbour.
He has a beautiful vegetable garden. ( I don’t )
He gets all pissy when I help myself to carrots and turnips, but I figure he owes me right? He has to pay up his fair share right ?
—————————-
burn.

i believe he said he’s worth 6M. he needs to give a much larger share. kids are going without breakfast in DTES.

sounds like most of his income is/was the lower taxed non-employment type.

#188 Victor V on 02.16.17 at 2:35 pm

Fitch says Canadian housing prices are unsustainable and sees risk of correction in some markets

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/fitch-says-canadian-housing-prices-are-unsustainable-and-sees-risk-of-correction-in-some-markets

#189 InvestorsFriend on 02.16.17 at 2:36 pm

Silly Tax Thoughts

Ero Observer asked:

Why is the interest on the money you save in the bank taxable (you paid the taxes before saving it)?

****************************************
Because under a scheme where there was no tax on money earned from after-tax investments, the very richest people would pay no taxes.

Money goes around in the economy and is taxed every time it grows.

Your suggestion would tax only “new” earnings or labour and leave no tax on earnings from capital.

As it is, investors and homeowners are getting tax breaks too numerous to list. The lower middle class (especially renters) are getting hosed.

#190 conan on 02.16.17 at 2:38 pm

Trump’s press conferences are something else. For the love of God, do not play a drinking game that involves the word “thing.” You will crash and burn.

Bizarre is the word I am looking for. Very much like walking into a new bar, and listening to the local “king of Kensington” type dominating the conversation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9D36cZvufQ

#191 Fuzzy Camel on 02.16.17 at 2:53 pm

Considering relocating out of province to run my business. Too expensive to stay here now. I’ll lose a few clients, but my costs will drop by 65%. Can run it online.

Should I pull the trigger and bail? Electricity, taxes, and other costs are really eating into my bottom line.

#192 Joe2.0 on 02.16.17 at 3:16 pm

#190 Conan
Definitely an interesting 75 minutes, he definitely not the norm.
But it was interesting that Hillary did in fact have the questions before the debate which was illegal but still mostly ignored by the press.
Also the fact that Hillary sold uranium to Russia has never really been pursued by the press.
Its all very interesting seeing so many agencies feathers ruffled and it must be quite the sensitive task trying to weed the rats out.

#193 Johnny Boy on 02.16.17 at 3:19 pm

Trump bashes media, defends Flynn and says he ‘inherited a mess’
How can anything be confidential when we have a Twitter loving Orange Turd who uses an unsecured personal phone and holds meetings in insecure locations at Mira Lago and any other place he feels at home at. Wow this guy is a real piece of work. He a whack job and a half. Holy $hit America WTF have you done to yourselves?

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/16/politics/donald-trump-press-conference-amazing-day-in-history/index.html

#194 Victor V on 02.16.17 at 3:35 pm

Toronto Mayor John Tory rejects BMO’s bubble claim; argues housing market is ‘healthy’

http://www.bnn.ca/toronto-mayor-john-tory-rejects-bmo-s-bubble-claim-argues-housing-market-is-healthy-1.673655

Toronto Mayor John Tory is rejecting the notion the city’s housing market is in a bubble and insists the rapid rise in home prices shows the market is healthy.

“Reports will come out from economists – I don’t dismiss them, I read them all – but I also talk to a lot of people in the federal government, the provincial government [and] in the private sector and none of those people, to a person, has as yet told me there is any kind of panic driven or panic-inducing situation,” Tory told reporters on Thursday.

“There is a robust market with rapidly rising prices at the moment which is of course a concern – but it is a concern more because it makes it harder for people to buy a home as opposed to a concern that we should be pushing panic buttons,” he said.

#195 traderJim on 02.16.17 at 3:56 pm

#148 Capt. Serious

Of course Trump is not a conservative, he’s a radical populist. I’m on record saying I figure he will add $10T to the deficit over 8 years.

Normally I wouldn’t support a guy like Trump, but he’s the best hope we have, so just trying to be optimistic. And I do love how he’s smashing some furniture, and exposing the real soul of the ‘progressives’, and it ain’t pretty.

And after 50 years of politicians on both right and left increasing deficits and spending like madmen, who cares anymore?

I am also not conservative. If you haven’t noticed my views are extreme. I actually believe in individual rights and classical liberal ideals. My ideas do not remotely resemble those of the fascist left that call themselves liberals today.

#156 Samantha You say it much better than I do. I’ll shut up and let you talk from now on.

#156 Conan-Agreed, Trump is up against it and the intelligence community is well established. They can concoct all sorts of trouble for him, and no doubt are well under way. Trump’s only hope will be the FBI, which is more traditional and pro-American.

I think his odds of surviving (literally) are about 30%.

#166 SeeB Rasmussen poll has Trump today at 55%. Rasmussen is the only credible poll left. When all the fake polls had Trump at 13 points down in the election, with 10 days to go, Rasmussen had him at close to even. The fake polls oversample Dems and expect no one to notice. What a joke.

#173 Tony: Minor decreases don’t mean a lot. I have no idea when the GTA housing bubble will burst, but with zero inventory, I can’t see it happening now. I think the spring will be insane, and maybe after that will we see it pop. Maybe.

#196 bubbletrouble on 02.16.17 at 3:57 pm

@ #194 Victor V
Toronto Mayor John Tory rejects BMO’s bubble claim; argues housing market is ‘healthy’

****************************************

Of course he will. Its in his best interest to have Greater Fools keep buying at high prices and pay higher Land Transfer fees compared to the prices after the ….POP…

#197 Reply to #13, #21, #26, #53, #69, #76 on 02.16.17 at 4:18 pm

Why would a taxpayer not always want to maximize their RRSP contributions?

The time value of money is the idea that a dollar received today is worth more than a dollar received in the future.

Should a taxpayer not always defer (rather than immediately pay) as much tax as possible? What am I missing?

#198 45north on 02.16.17 at 4:18 pm

The Ontario government relies so heavily on Toronto’s roiling housing market for revenue that even a small decline in prices could blow a billion-dollar hole in the provincial budget

http://mcaf.ee/4qhjno

Ottawa Citizen

Home prices in Toronto rose almost 20 per cent in a year, CMHC reported earlier this year, which “outpaced economic and demographic fundamentals. The gap between actual home prices and prices supported by these fundamental drivers has now been above its problematic threshold for seven consecutive quarters.”

sounds to me as if house prices have decoupled from reality. there has never been such an increase in house prices. We don’t know what’s going to happen on the way down.

#199 45north on 02.16.17 at 4:28 pm

Calvin: Electoral reform was a cornerstone of the current government’s electoral campaign

I’m proud of my participation in the elections. I was a scrutineer in two elections: one municipal and one provincial.

The most important thing is the election process be accepted: that it be fair. Which doesn’t mean that it be perfect just fair and accepted. We have a good system which maybe can be improved.

#200 Metaxa on 02.16.17 at 4:34 pm

#187 bdwy sktrn
i believe he said he’s worth 6M. he needs to give a much larger share…

sounds like most of his income is/was the lower taxed non-employment type.

And you would be wrong on both counts.

I have never stated my income or wealth on this or any other forum although I suppose if one could handle the math you might extrapolate from my answers on the recent poll. If that is what you did…your math is wrong.

All my working life I was a worker bee…worked in,ran, owned, partnered in small restaurants, diners, cafes. 12 hour day was a short one. Nobody got rich, everybody made a living.

I came here to learn…and I have learned that there are a great many folks who seem to be desperately unhappy…and more than willing to drag the rest of us down to their miserable level.

Folks that are uncouth enough to speculate on my income and wealth in public are asses.

#201 RentYVR on 02.16.17 at 4:41 pm

Garth, as a former politician you should know that homeowners are far and away a more consistent voting block than renters. That’s why politicians pander to them so much. Any overt tax on housing would be the kiss of death to a political party so I don’t see that happening. Sure, they may play around at the margin with increased scrutiny on principle-resident tax avoidance and the like, but that’s not going to impact most homeowners. Unfortunately, tax measures will continue to favour homeowners at the expense of renters, savers, small business owners and financial asset investors.

#202 RRSP vs. TFSA on 02.16.17 at 4:47 pm

Why is this an “either/or” and not a “both/and”? Should taxpayers not want to max out all their registered investment accounts (RRSP, TFSA, RESP)?

#203 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 5:06 pm

#197 Reply to #13, #21, #26, #53, #69, #76 on 02.16.17 at 4:18 pm
Why would a taxpayer not always want to maximize their RRSP contributions?

The time value of money is the idea that a dollar received today is worth more than a dollar received in the future.

Should a taxpayer not always defer (rather than immediately pay) as much tax as possible? What am I missing?
——–

I’d say you’re right on the money. Max it, take the return and reinvest. Now money you never would have had is back in your hands, and making you money, and doing it tax free while it’s in there.

If you happen to have a fat DB pension, you might want to rethink as your income tax would be high in that case.

If you are like most working stiffs, you will have squat for retirement income allowing a low tax bracket during retirement.

Also, who knows what the future may bring. Maybe we will get a Canadian Trump during really tough economic times, and he/she will allow a one time tax free transfer out of RRSP’s to help Canadian families out. The world is crazier every year, I don’t rule out too much.

#204 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 5:16 pm

“kiss our asses pay your taxes’ campaign
refusing to pay federal income tax until Trump releases his returns
——–

As much as I admire the spirit here, they are really, REALLY going about it the wrong way.

The IRS has a habit of showing up with AR-15’s and destroying your house. Then hauling you and everyone that knows you off to jail.

It’s like saying “We’re going to stand right here on these tracks until Trump releases his returns!!”

#205 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.16.17 at 5:17 pm

@#200 Metaxa
“Folks that are uncouth enough to speculate on my income and wealth in public are asses.
********************************************

Sooooo…….
You’re poor?

#206 acdel on 02.16.17 at 5:18 pm

#105 john in mtl

Thank you for that story.

Yes, the Vinyl Cafe was a staple for many across Canada on Sunday’s; great story teller, he will be missed.

#207 Euro observer on 02.16.17 at 5:33 pm

#186 InvestorsFriend

I think you may end up wishing to pay somewhat higher taxes but get something from your RRSP vs, getting nothing.

—————————-

Because under a scheme where there was no tax on money earned from after-tax investments, the very richest people would pay no taxes.

Money goes around in the economy and is taxed every time it grows.

Your suggestion would tax only “new” earnings or labour and leave no tax on earnings from capital.

As it is, investors and homeowners are getting tax breaks too numerous to list. The lower middle class (especially renters) are getting hosed.

—————–

My behind still hurts from laughter after reading this.

You call ‘grow’ 0.1 % interest with official inflation target 2 %, real inflation 5-6, maybe 8 %?

All grow must be real inflation adjusted. Period.

I never suggested taxing labour only. I think that everything that grows in real terms, not in nominal terms is fair to be considered for some form of taxation.

And I suggest nothing, I recommend Vaseline.

#208 Euro observer on 02.16.17 at 5:36 pm

growth damn it.

#209 Josh in Calgary on 02.16.17 at 5:45 pm

Ideal RRSP Contribution:

Someone asked about this. The simple answer is: It depends.

What’s your tax bracket?
How close are you to retirement?
What’s your tax bracket in a few years?
What’s your tax bracket in retirement?
What’s your spouse’s income?
How much room do you have?

And I’m sure the list goes on. If you’re in a high tax bracket you’re generally well served to max out, but stop once you push yourself into a lower tax bracket. Having extra money today (to invest in a TFSA) is a good thing. But if you’re close to retirement or likely to be in a higher tax bracket soon then it might not be that simple. Don’t forget about a Spousal RRSP plan if your spouse has a lower income than you or is soon to be unemployed (maternity leave maybe). After 3 years (from your last contribution) you can cash out the money at their tax bracket (0% if you keep it below the personal exemption).

So unfortunately there is no one size fits all “sweet spot”. But avoiding the decision all together is not the right answer either. And even with all of your information there will be a bit of a “gut feel” to the decision.

#210 David on 02.16.17 at 5:55 pm

@ #184 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 2:28 pm

No, just no.

#211 SeeB on 02.16.17 at 6:23 pm

#175 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 1:22 pm
#161 SeeB on 02.16.17 at 11:57 am
#144 DJ on 02.16.17 at 9:31 am
To Mextaca. “I’ve got mine, F you.”

Discribes my neighbour.
He has a beautiful vegetable garden. ( I don’t )
He gets all pissy when I help myself to carrots and turnips, but I figure he owes me right? He has to pay up his fair share right ?

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Do you not have a garden because you choose not to grow one, or do you not have a garden because your neighbor fenced off both his and your yards?
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That analogy sucks big time.
_____________________________________

Glad you agree. Analogies are reductive and oversimplify complex issues. However, no one calls that out when they agree with one, which might explain why you stepped in for mine and not the one before.

#212 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 6:26 pm

#210 David on 02.16.17 at 5:55 pm
@ #184 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 2:28 pm

No, just no.

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I’m afraid so.

The future strangely enough, could see hard working folks who are being taxed into the ground bail out of the workforce and on to the newly minted basic income gravy train with a little work on the side.

Any guy/gal who’s worked hard their entire lives and is mid 40’s or more knows what I’m talking about.

#213 Tony on 02.16.17 at 6:27 pm

Re: #197 Reply to #13, #21, #26, #53, #69, #76 on 02.16.17 at 4:18 pm

Many people make much more when they retire instead of much less… that’s the reason.

#214 IHCTD9 on 02.16.17 at 6:29 pm

Glad you agree. Analogies are reductive and oversimplify complex issues. However, no one calls that out when they agree with one, which might explain why you stepped in for mine and not the one before.
——–

I still think it sucked.

#215 dumpster fire on 02.16.17 at 6:57 pm

#202 RRSP vs. TFSA on 02.16.17 at 4:47 pm
Why is this an “either/or” and not a “both/and”? Should taxpayers not want to max out all their registered investment accounts (RRSP, TFSA, RESP)

* * *

TFSA is a no brainer, however the questions I had were:
1) is an RRSP worth it in the first place (the answer being yes, and doubly so if cap gain tax goes up)
2) what priority should be given to each account type under different situations (RRSPs are generally more useful if you are in a high tax bracket or if you have a long investing timeframe)

#216 antiflakflak on 02.16.17 at 7:00 pm

Houses if you own, let you live there without always getting a notice to evict premises, it is not like Europe here where a tenant lives in the same place for 30 years. Here tenants are always at the mercy and whims of their landlords who constantly flip properties for profits or cashing out, leaves tenants with little stability in Canada, and at the whims of landlords who want them vacating property so he can cash out. Constant revolving door when renting, no stability, crappy country,
I can understand why theres this obsession with owning a home, but this is the big little country, 10 big cities across the land, in America at least 52 with lots more houses., crown land another factor, lots of land but all owned by the government.

#217 maxx on 02.16.17 at 8:14 pm

#177 Euro observer on 02.16.17 at 1:28 pm

You have to spoon feed some of them- well done.

#218 Dryden Waters on 02.17.17 at 2:54 am

Garth,

Regular reader and first time writer. I come to the blog for your insightful commentary and always leave with a smile because of the entertaining photos. Thank you for your commitment and no nonsense advice on investing and all matter of personal finance.

While the tax burden in Canada is undoubtedly higher than the US, the comparison of a top rate of 53.5% in Ontario with 39.6% exaggerates the difference because it ignores the additional tax levied by states and in some cities. For example, here in New York City the top marginal rate peaks out at about 52.5% when considering state (9%) and local (4%) taxes. California is slightly worse with a top state income tax rate of 13.3% for a total burden of almost 53%.

Apart from residents in a handful of states (New Hampshire, Florida, Texas, Nevada, Alaska) that don’t levy income tax, the rest of us have an additional burden beyond the federal 39.6% rate that you cited.

However, an important difference between the US and Canada is that top marginal rates in America only start to apply at very high income levels. The top US federal rate of 39.6% kicks in after $415,000 while the top rate in California applies for marginal income above $1mm.

The assertion of a lower personal tax burden in the US vs. Canada is indeed correct but the choice of marginal tax rates is not an accurate representation. In fact, the top federal rate in Canada is only 33% compared to the American 39.6% but Canada’s 33% applies for incomes just over $200,000.

Taxes aren’t the most exciting subject but I thought it was important for all of us to have a more complete understanding of the system down south. Thanks again for developing and hosting this online community.

#219 westcdn on 02.17.17 at 4:51 pm

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