Go high

Dawn and her squeeze wrote me a few weeks ago asking if I thought they should bail out of their little bung. They were feeling the pressure of debt, and wanted to start getting ready for the after-work part of their lives.

You betcha, I said, knowing the city where they live (Kitchener) has recently been infected with the brain-eating parasite called Househornysicosis, GTA strain. If you’re ever going to pull the trigger and move on, I added, this is the moment.

So they did. I got this today:

“About a month and a half ago I wrote to you asking you what you thought of the idea of my husband and I selling our bungalow (3bed, 2bath) in Kitchener and downsizing to a condo.  We were concerned because we wanted to get out of debt and because of the difference in our ages we wanted me to be able to retire soon. You thought it was a great idea.

“So we updated the bathroom (it really needed it!) and 2 days after it was finished last week we put our home up for sale at the price of $399,900.  We did the usual thing of not accepting offers until Wednesday of this week. We had close to 30 people through in 5 days and ended up with 5 offers. Three agents came to present their offers. Garth, I couldn’t believe it but our 1st offer was for $465,100! As that was the highest offer we received we accepted it:)  65,100 over asking, like wow! It was from a young couple who had bid on 12 other houses and lost out on them.”

See what I mean? A vicious outbreak.

Here’s more evidence. A sad semi in a sketchy part of 416 that had even the realtors shaking their heads. “This is the place my clients bid on last night (alongside 20 other buyers),” says super-agent Lisa. “I didn’t know whether to laugh, cry or scream when I saw this.” Let’s go with scream.

The little house on Glebeholme is both 18 feet wide, no garage, no drive, no soul, no reno. The best the listing could say about it was “sun-filled” and “lots of light pours into the upstairs rooms.” Oh, and bonus. It comes complete with “couch in basement.” The asking was $699,900, and the sold was $950,500. Add in closing costs, and it’s a million-dollar gut which will never be more than an old semi glued to its mate on a street where hipsters go to die.

Meanwhile, not far away, more kids were at it in Greektown. The teensy little house at 69 Muriel even made the local papers – an anorexic teardown that went for seven figures.

The 20-foot-wide shack with a paved front lawn cost the current owners $10,000 in 1966. Adjusted for inflation, that’s $73,000. The current assessed value is $645,000, and Royal LePage listed it for $679,900. The bidding war that ensued – all desperate young buyers – resulted in the “winner” shelling out an astonishing $1,050,000. All for a place you might feel okay about storing your motorcycles in.

This silliness is the result of many factors, chief among them normal demand in an area of six million people, and the smallest number of detached homes for sale in memory. There is barely a 10-day supply of houses, hundreds of people attracted to every new listing, dozens and dozens of showings and five to 25 offers on each. For bidders the mantra’s simple. Go high, or die. Extreme offers are the only way to win a deed, and the lower the asking price the most outrageous seems the premium offered.

As mentioned here some weeks ago, besides diddling high-income taxpayers in the next budget, the T2 gang is planning on “measures” to corral this kind of excessive behaviour. They understand each nutso sale of a crap house on a dodgy lane sets the bar higher for every other property in the hood. Since most of these purchases are floating on an ever-expanding sea of personal debt – and since every rational person understands prices will correct (as they are in Vancouver) – the economic implications are ugly. Either slow this now and deal with the consequences, or let it bloat and blow on its own. Uglier.

Of course at the heart of this is the core T2 voter – a millennial. This reminded me of a US survey surfacing earlier this week, concluding moisters are overcondifent and underprepared when it comes to financial stuff. Three-quarters lack basic financial literacy, and yet almost 70% give themselves high marks for their own financial savvy. Recipe for disaster.

“Millennials are known for having unrelenting belief in their own abilities. This generation is diverse and highly educated. However, their overconfidence puts them in an extremely fragile financial position, and sadly, they don’t realize it,” says the National Endowment for Financial Education.

Seems places like the semi on Glebeholme or the dollhouse on Muriel are ideal examples of what happens at the corner of stupidity and greed. So how is Justin planning on slowing down this juggernaut?

Unknown for now. But I see a whipping boy ahead. Guess who?

149 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 02.10.17 at 6:44 pm

This case study encapsulates some of the rampant speculation that has gone on in this city by realtors themselves.

A realtor bought this knockdown in December of 2015 for 2.5 million and by the time they demolished the house ,they must of felt the winds of change and have not gone through with the development.It was back on the market 6 months later and they have waited 8 months to see what happens this Spring by the looks of it.

Even though it has since received its bloated 2016 assessment for 3.4m,the realtor is trying to flog it for nearly 6million ,even though it is on a busy street and that after is having it on for less than assessment, and then most likely after receiving the assessment in December 2016 ,whacking another 3 million dollar premium on the land in time for the Spring Fling.

Could be “Khalid”…

M42BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2109-w-35th-avenue

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMFFUUA==

#2 powder_hound86 on 02.10.17 at 6:44 pm

“Adjusted for inflation, that’s $73,000. The current assessed value is $645,000, and Royal LePage listed it for $679,900”

Sure sounds like the financial peoples are failing to correctly measure inflation

#3 For those about to flop... on 02.10.17 at 6:45 pm

Pink Snow falling in Vancouver.

These guys paid 2.7 million for a knockdown and if you read the Zolo report it shows they submitted plans to the city to build a new house,but they now know it’s not worth their while in the current uncertain environment

The neighbourhood is on fire though after a rapid decline in the second half of last year ,so they only need one Crealiever…

M42BC

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMFJBMg==

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1851-w-37th-avenue

#4 Bandit on 02.10.17 at 6:48 pm

You people are crazy!

#5 Doug t on 02.10.17 at 6:48 pm

Quite often nowadays I find myself fed up with the human race

#6 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 02.10.17 at 6:49 pm

dogs are great
beer is good
people are crazy

#7 Frank on 02.10.17 at 6:54 pm

Reckoning hasn’t come for 9 years. But maybe this is the year.

What’ll come first maple leafs winning the cup or the housing crash?

#8 Shawn on 02.10.17 at 6:58 pm

Wild Bill Morneau!

#9 Linda on 02.10.17 at 6:59 pm

Poor dog! Not only the ‘cone of shame’ but someone (presumably the owner) is producing a martini photo moment to commemorate the trauma:)

Garth, your blog has commented on how ‘house debt’ is considered ‘good debt’ & how the younger cohort have no issues with taking on debt that would give me a heart attack. So I presume this won’t end well & they won’t understand how it all ‘went wrong’.

#10 Starbucks on 02.10.17 at 7:00 pm

My husband and I have yet to invest our tfsa money, we will have it next week! Yay, and blog dogs any advice for me what I should invest it in?
Thx
Star

#11 Debtslavecreator on 02.10.17 at 7:01 pm

Whipping boy = foreign buyers
Whipping boy = houses over 2 m
Whipping boy= incomes over 200 k
Whipping boy = young salaried / wage earners who make over 60–70k / year
Whipping boy = savers
Whipping boy = young kids who are going to be robbed with the under 40 crowd to help pay for grandmas pensions and healthcare and who will have none of their own when they reach grandmas age

#12 Lulu on 02.10.17 at 7:08 pm

28 Harriet is still on the market? Holy molly! What is wrong with it, huh, lol

We are like the crash before in Vancity, high price beget higher till no one could afford anymore.

Muriel set the record.. I wonder who is the buyer.

#13 Leo Trollstoy on 02.10.17 at 7:19 pm

Welcome to Toronto

#14 TurnerNation on 02.10.17 at 7:20 pm

Bad move selling in Kitchen-er. With ultra low rates until at least 2019-2020 those houses will hit $500k + .

(Think of it, a couple each with average jobs together could earn $120k – there’s a house of only 4x their income.)

Blog dog Poloz is (im)potent on rates.
This is my call I’m sticking to it.

1m in TO for a sht house? I work with dozens of people with household incomes of 200-300k.
1m is only 3-4x their incomes. Yawn.

No our elites are passing 101 new laws each year to tax tax tax us and make up shortfalls. Cities are addicted to land transfer taxes.

I’m not saying rates cannot rise I’m saying they will not.
FIRE and ice.

Buyer of sht bung on Danforth likely will tear it down, spend 300k on new build or 2nd floor, then sell for 1.5m easily.

#15 Bank of Millenial on 02.10.17 at 7:25 pm

Does this whipping boy’s last name rhyme with Drumpf and hate immigrants?

Poloz couldn’t be it, he is the only one breathing life into our moribund economy.

#16 Sidera on 02.10.17 at 7:27 pm

Peak housing has reached the outter burbs.

An older bungalow with a large lot in Whitby listed at $549k, sold for $900k. This is a house not too long ago would have sold easily below $200k.

Not sure people realize the amount of compound interest that is payable when taking a mortgage. People are the purchase price but neglect the long term debt implications.

#17 the end in far on 02.10.17 at 7:31 pm

This is the beginning of the hockey-stick graph.
To the stars and beyond!

#18 mike from mtl on 02.10.17 at 7:33 pm

69 Muriel..

Wow, just wow.

Stuff like that can barely be sold of 350k here. Even then takes months to do so. Obviously our loser ‘economy’ is part of it, but also the sheer stupidity of the RE cult in this country is in plain view.

Dutch tulip disease is quite apt as they themselves have an even WORSE RE bubble than us. Gutting I suppose as they first patented it.

#19 Sebee on 02.10.17 at 7:35 pm

Motorcycles? Plural? Surely that’s a spelling mistake. That house could store a single motorcycle at best. And what is worthy to be stored in that piece of sheet house? A 1990 Suzuki Katana..perhaps.

#20 Fed-up on 02.10.17 at 7:37 pm

“the economic implications are ugly. Either slow this now and deal with the consequences, or let it bloat and blow on its own. Uglier.”
——————————————————————————-

But what, in the name of God what will blow this up??? I mean Alberta won’t even correct!!! And they have lost a dump load of jobs out there.

What will curtail demand? What will dramatically increase supply? What happened to all those condos that were supposed to flood the market by now? Measures introduced by the current and previous government have done nothing, zero, zilch, nada to stop this.

That house in Greektown may be worth $200k on its best day. Anyone see an 80% correction coming any time soon???

#21 Bank of Millenial on 02.10.17 at 7:39 pm

#16 Sidera

“Not sure people realize the amount of compound interest that is payable when taking a mortgage. People are the purchase price but neglect the long term debt implications.”

I wouldn’t say with any confidence that most people even understand the first order consequence of purchase price at this point. If they don’t understand that, they surely wont understand the compounding effect.

It’s fine though, these are the times we live in. You just have to be adjusted accordingly for present and highly probable future conditions.

#22 Ogopogo on 02.10.17 at 7:45 pm

Even the MSM are now calling it, as the fetid horde of realtors stampede in desperation to corral the last greater fools:

“‘The housing bubble has burst’: Economist warns market imbalances are threat to economy in long run”

My favourite bits:

“We simply think the housing bubble has burst. Housing bubbles are, of course, inherently unstable because they are largely driven by unpredictable investor mania.”

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/the-housing-bubble-has-burst-economist-warns-market-imbalances-threat-to-economy-in-long-run

#23 Dan.t on 02.10.17 at 7:47 pm

Looks like someone got a great deal… but seriously I give up. Maybe whoever bought that Garage for a mil can afford it. To me, watching from afar, 500k, 600k, 700k and up is just chump change to Canadians. Really, it obviously is because in greater van and lower mainland BC you need at least that for a house or townhouse and maybe a 2 bedroom apartment in van….same in Toronto now it seems.

I recently read in an investment book (ironically) that if you can spot irrational markets that defy logic you can make lots of money- it had to do with investing in other assets but I guess the Canadian real estate market is the best example ever!

By all logic, paying a million or more for an average home in burnaby, surrey, 1 hour outside GTA is a lot but it obviously isn’t because enough people are doing it and seem to think it is worth it so…

You would rationally think that those who bought a few years ago would be pooched, but no, just equity and more equity and if they sell someone else is willing to take it off there hands.

I’ve been living outside Canada a while,is 700k a lot of money? Is paying a mil for a house like that a big deal? Who does that- obviously whoever it is has no money issues. So based on house prices in general, logic dictates that 5-6-7-800k in Canada is simply not a big deal.

Canadians have a lot of money. I’m envious.

#24 Bank of Millenial on 02.10.17 at 7:49 pm

Whipping boy ->

http://www.theprovince.com/business/cnw/release.html?rkey=20170210C8938&filter=4007

TORONTO, Feb. 10, 2017
Home Capital Group Inc. (the Company) stated that it received an enforcement notice from staff of the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC).

#25 harold on 02.10.17 at 7:49 pm

Put the capital gains tax on owner occupied dwellings, that will restore sanity quickly by discouraging speculation.

#26 yorkville renter on 02.10.17 at 7:50 pm

what bank would possibly finance these sales?

crazy.

I sold in 2012, for more than double what I paid, and thought the buyers were crazy… now In starting to think I was the crazy one (hindsight is 20/20, but man this has been a crazy housing bull)

#27 Mean Gene on 02.10.17 at 7:53 pm

Oscar the grouch should sell his garbage can in Toronto.

#28 Cto on 02.10.17 at 7:56 pm

20 fed up
What in the name of God will correct this monster!

Exactly, I’m with you.
This is either going to go on forever, or there is going to be one hellish correction a year or two out that will lay waste to the entire Canadian economy and negatively affect every single man, woman and child!

My god! Where’s our government!!!

#29 chopstix on 02.10.17 at 7:57 pm

but not to worry:
vancouver is still stupid:
a 467sq foot 1bdrm condo in the new Telus gardens (seymour/robson) is listed a month ago for $739,000
remember it was that greasy firm new coast realty who said the ‘real gold’ is in the condo market.

#30 CMHC a house of cards on 02.10.17 at 7:58 pm

Harper and his stupid CON buddies Realtors/mortgage brokers have destroyed the Canadian economy. Its a house of cards on a mountain of debt. . The only option is pop it and let it crash 1990’s style. The problen is the Canadian government is controled by vested interests. I can only imagined how many hours the working slaves spent driving on the 401 to get home tonight?

#31 Crackpot on 02.10.17 at 7:58 pm

Some outside the box and longer range thinking here (and not entirely on topic but it is a popular topic even with Garth).

So let’s take a look at Trump’s presidency with the viewpoint that maybe at least part of the political establishment was ok with it, and then do some wild speculation as to why.

The first point I want to make is Trump is proposing a boarder tax. Supposedly to create US jobs, which it might. But then I put my tinfoil hat on for a bit and it came to me, isn’t a boarder tax a form of “sanction” against the whole world? I mean, it’s not an outright sanction in the form of a ban, but if you set your border tax high enough it’s essentially the same.

Strap in here folks because I am piecing a bunch of stuff together.

OK, then there is the “immigrant ban” (which it isn’t unless you are from 7 of 140 countries, 40 of which are predominantly Muslim, but anyway it is interesting to look at which countries to which it applies). So if I were on a think tank in the US and expecting trouble with the part of the world, I would look at what’s happened in Germany very closely. And what’s happened is that there is now an easily unified invading million man army right in the middle of Europe, more than a million if you count France and some of the other countries, and all they need is weapons. Weapons they can probably steal. This is a far worse situation than Assad faced, and look at what it’s taking for him and Russia combined to put it down. These people didn’t come to Europe for jobs, they are not employable. They are awaiting orders.

This theory, as bizarre as it sounds, could explain why NATO and the US in particular are moving so much hardware and so many troops to Europe to deal with the “Russian threat” and “Russian aggression”. Remember, they never tell the public the real reason for what they do. They are moving the equipment there to deal with the immigrant threat and social disorder. Over one million unemployable migrants rioting in a country that only has 65 million people is a problem.

So then why does the US want it’s manufacturing back under Trump? Why, when globalization of the supply chain has worked so well to lower the cost of goods for so long is it no longer government policy? Well, that’s also easy when you have your tinfoil hat on. The PTB (powers that be) anticipate the supply lines will be disrupted, and thus everything you need to make war must be made at home. The PTB anticipate that the US will need to be self sufficient in the war making business sometime in the future (but within planning range), like they were in WWII.

So folks, the US is going on a war footing. They have smart people there and they see something coming. Trump is just an actor they hired to explain the policy change.

Russia is not the target, it is a diversion. No sane country would attack Russia or invoke war with Russia, there would be nothing to win and everything to lose. Instead, when the shit hits the fan Russia will probably be a reluctant ally as the were in WWII. Instead, Russia is an excuse to redeploy weapons to Europe, where it looks like there will be problems.

Trump will win his immigration plans because the PTB know it must be done, the court cases are a public festival. Plus he’s doing the same thing Obama did and using the same laws, just this time it’s public knowledge. He will also win his border tax as the PTB want the capability to wage a sustained war returned to the US. What the wall is about I haven’t figured out yet, it may just be propaganda, or a diversion, but it’s pretty cheap compared to everything else they are doing.

You disappoint me. — Garth

#32 Victor V on 02.10.17 at 7:58 pm

Fifty years ago, a young couple paid $27,000 for a modest home in Don Mills. That approximately 1,500-square-foot house sold for $2.3 million, more than $1.15 million over the nearly $1.19 list price on Wednesday.

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/02/10/don-mills-home-sells-for-115-million-over-asking.html

#33 Crackpot on 02.10.17 at 8:00 pm

Oh and on the border tax I forgot to mention the most important part, if it is a sanction, sanctions are generally a prelude to war.

#34 CMHC a house of cards on 02.10.17 at 8:03 pm

Garth how is it possible that the average income can not support the average housing price. Where is the government? Stop CMHC at once let the banks lend to anyone they want if they take all the risk. Implement the foreigners tax across Canada . If its such a small number it wont mean anything.

#35 Long-Time Lurker on 02.10.17 at 8:06 pm

Limited Sage, this is what a top of market looks like –irrational. Fools rush in where investors fear to tread.

#36 Bank of Millenial on 02.10.17 at 8:06 pm

#23 Dan.t

“Canadians have a lot of money. I’m envious.”

No, we don’t. Canadians have personal debts larger than the GDP of the Canada itself. For every dollar accounted for in our economy there is another, I’ll suggest “fake” dollar, being spent like real money.

Debt can be spent like money, until it can’t anymore. It must be repaid and dampens forward demand which is a dynamic that has yet to play out fully since more debt is made accessible and being spent like money.

#37 Starbucks on 02.10.17 at 8:11 pm

Can someone please explain to me why the Canadian government would give a Loan to bombardier? If they go bankrupt what’s the big deal? Someone will replace them
Thx
Star

#38 smell the coffee on 02.10.17 at 8:12 pm

My god! Where’s our government!!!


This was created by banks and their collection agencies, aka governments
H, F, and T2 pumped it up

Oct 3 2016 they sent in the closer-Morneau
one thing for sure, many people intended to sell this year but put it off after M’s oct 3 dog and pony show
the point is many people have to hold who would prefer to unload now that the disposition has to go on the 2016 tax returns for principal res
foreign buyers was a straw man
every Canadian is their real target

#39 TurnerNation on 02.10.17 at 8:15 pm

A bit of obiter dicta for the weekend:

Success in life comes when your fear of dying perfectly balances out your fear of living.

Ask me how I know….

M41ON

#40 Pete on 02.10.17 at 8:31 pm

#31 Crackpot

interesting thoughts. It has already been say by a few that the so called “migrants” is nothing more then an army of which are mostly men of military age. The perfect Trojan horse. These “migrants” have been causing a lot of problems in Greece, Italy , German, France , Belgium . We are lucky we have the ocean to protect us from this problem as they can’t cross by raft or walk. Europe has like you said a one million man army which they let walk in.

#41 Cto on 02.10.17 at 8:35 pm

36 bank of Millenial
Very smart reply my friend.
The debt is pulling all the wealth out of the future.

#42 DON on 02.10.17 at 8:37 pm

@ crackpot

The wall between Mexico and the US could be for invasion purposes. If Mexico were to allow foreign troops in to protect their oil interests?

The US made a point of telling Canadians we are not the principal targets of NAFTA. We shall see.

But it does seem like the US is bringing the war making capacity home.

#43 Alex on 02.10.17 at 8:41 pm

Are people crazy ?
We bought two years ago near Montreal a 5000sf house in pristine shape on a 14000sf lot for 300K below the mean of two independant evaluations. Total cost was 1.4M (much less than what it would cost me to build it today). All paid cash. Running cost is 2000$ a month including everything. We will keep this house for the next 30 years. It’s our dream house and was not bought as an investment but it might as well be seeing these shacks going for a million dollars ! I am so sad. My parents always paid everything in cash. Credit was always just a tool.

#44 acdel on 02.10.17 at 8:44 pm

#39 TurnerNation

Like your quote.

Ok, you requested to be asked, what’s your story?

#45 Wallflower on 02.10.17 at 8:44 pm

My grandparents moved into Toronto. My parents grew up in Toronto. I was raised in Toronto.
I am trying to understand, what do people know that I do not know?

Toronto sucks. I can’t think of one solid reason to live in Toronto. I see no joy in Toronto’s landscape, topography or civic offer.
What am I missing? As a third-gen Torontonian, who has said, sa-yo-na-ra, what is it I am missing? why are these people hijacking their financial futures for this place?

#46 anc0dia on 02.10.17 at 8:45 pm

‘People have discovered Niagara’

“We are the most affordable in the country right now,” said association president Patrick Dummitt (of Niagara Association of Realtors).

Dummitt said the amount of foreign investment in Niagara is a factor in how hot the real-estate market is in the region.

“There’s a lot of Asian money coming into the area.”

http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2017/02/10/people-have-discovered-niagara

#47 Wrk.dover on 02.10.17 at 8:53 pm

So Garth; you are a stock savvy gentleman, do tell, is RBC-TSE aka Royal Bank just shy of double in value in the last five years because they are part of this crazy small house for crazy big dough situation that has no good ending scheduled, or is it because they don’t pay interest to depositors due to this fragile economy where there is no inflation?

Thanks for tonight’s head twister blog! I feel extra fine because no FOMO at all.

#48 Ronaldo on 02.10.17 at 8:58 pm

“Fools and their money are soon parted”. This is not going to end well. How long have we been saying that now? This is the slowest train wreck I have ever witnessed. When is this madness going to end? Nutso!

#49 Ronaldo on 02.10.17 at 9:02 pm

#37 Starbucks on 02.10.17 at 8:11 pm

Can someone please explain to me why the Canadian government would give a Loan to bombardier? If they go bankrupt what’s the big deal? Someone will replace them
Thx
Star
————————————————————–
TBTF

#50 Don P on 02.10.17 at 9:09 pm

Have I been banned?

Try harder. — Garth

#51 Ronaldo on 02.10.17 at 9:19 pm

#36 Bank of Millenial

”Debt can be spent like money, until it can’t anymore. It must be repaid and dampens forward demand which is a dynamic that has yet to play out fully since more debt is made accessible and being spent like money.”
————————————————————–
Well said. We have a humdinger of an awakening ahead of us haven’t we? Thanks to our leaders for this mess.

#52 Londoner on 02.10.17 at 9:19 pm

As silly as it looks, the demand is unlikely to be satiated anytime soon. Much like the UK, there is really only one city in Canada that attracts any and all Canadians looking for jobs with higher salaries. Restricted supply of SFHs is likely to remain a permanent feature of the GTA real estate market. And rates moving lower over the next 12 months will only make matters worse. Either take yourself out of the game or adjust your expectations.

#53 DaleFromCalgary on 02.10.17 at 9:25 pm

I measure economic activity by food courts. In the TD Square food court in downtown Calgary, it used to be that I had to get there by 11h45 to be sure of getting a seat. Now I can walk in anytime during the lunch hour. This is in the heart of the skyscrapers.

The Arby’s in this food court just went out of business. The three retail levels have all have vacant storefronts.

Yet it is that in my neighbourhood of Altadore (central southwest Calgary, middle-class homes) houses are selling quickly at list price. I walk by the Sold signs every day. Alberta’s economy has been gutted by low oil prices and the Dipper’s insane policies, yet people are still buying houses and condos.

Are those people insane? Who are they?

It can’t be confidence that oil prices will recover. Once Trump gets going, the market will be flooded with fracked oil, which will keep prices down.

The markets aren’t just irrational, they’re insane.

#54 k y chen on 02.10.17 at 9:30 pm

House-hunters who wants to buy & live in the Toronto area do not need to hunt for houses in the Durham region when there are still quite a few houses available for sale in north or south Scarborough . From the beach or north of the beach area to the Kennedy subway station , it is only less than 1 hour by TTC or 20 – 40 minutes by car . There is no need to over-bid for a small house near Pape subway or Don Mills & Lawrence Ave E. It’s not hard or time consuming to check at realtor.ca & then use google map to view the house & its surrounding area .
Have lived over 40 yrs in Toronto , East York , Scarborough , North York , York & Etobicoke . No one area is special , there are all similar .
Don’t act that you are above others & you will be able to live peacefully in any area in this world . Be friendly & honest .

#55 Andrew Woburn on 02.10.17 at 9:39 pm

Something to remember if you are resentful of the fact that older Canadians seem to have got a better housing deal than you. First, the desirable areas of SFH close to metro downtowns are no bigger than they were in the Sixties. The population of Canada has about doubled since then and the proportion of the population living in metro areas is far higher. Downtown living is simply less affordable for current and future generations regardless of interest rates.

The corollary must be that SFH values in small towns and rural areas are not even keeping pace with inflation and will continue to fall. How this will all play out as automation shreds jobs is an interesting question.

“The three biggest metropolitan areas in the country — Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver — are now home to more than one-third of all Canadians with a combined population of 12.5 million, with almost one half living in Toronto and its suburban neighbours, the data shows.”

“The census shows that 82 per cent of Canadian population live in large and medium-sized cities across the country, one of the highest concentrations among G7 nations. Immigration has driven that change with new arrivals settling in urban centres as opposed to rural communities.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cities-population-census-2016-1.3972062

#56 Don P on 02.10.17 at 10:03 pm

Have I been banned?

Try harder. — Garth

Ok I get it now. You are trying to ban me.

Well, it is your blog. But maybe the rules need clarification.

Me n my colleague Dave (not sure if banned also) are only posting factual information that is not abusive or offensive.

If we aren’t violating your posting policies then why are you deleting multiple posts?

#57 common sense on 02.10.17 at 10:10 pm

I now know what the word Gobsmacked means.

Trump, major uncertainty in the world and millions spent on THIS?

Can someone please tell me other than a war, who or what is going to ease the pain of all these idiotic purchases with this thing falls apart not only here but in Oz, etc?

It has to be massive tax raises, means testing as the Govt does not have the cash to support the flood of possible layoffs, defaults coming,,,

Holy ___________.

Now, I am scared.

#58 Smoking Man on 02.10.17 at 10:23 pm

Hemingway. Tracked down his digs in Havana.
I get now.

It’s not about the writing, It’s about losing your mind brings out pure honestly that people feel and get.

It’s about the brand. Being honest regardless if your right or wrong at that moment in time that inspired you.

People appreciate it.

#59 Al on 02.10.17 at 10:24 pm

All it took to normalize the RE market in Vancouver was a 15% tax on non-citizen buyers which we were told comprised no more than 5% of the buyers, but it did the trick. here in Wynnetario, our Premier waits for instructions from former Premier Dad.

#60 WUL on 02.10.17 at 10:34 pm

FLOP:

Thank you for the forensic effort you are expending. With your Flop-o-Matic Colour Coded Avalanche Detector, can you detect fuchsia snow?

Keep it up.

Oh, can it read Calgary from the GVRD or must I acquire a franchise?

M61AB

#61 Dave (aka All Cashed Out YVR Feb '16) on 02.10.17 at 10:38 pm

On this blog people post about the Chinese Dudes Tax. Doesn’t anyone consider how offensive that is to Chinese in Canada?

In Vancouver, the new rich Chinese (expensive cars, multiple houses) are looked down upon by two other groups of local Chinese who are either pure immigrants (not immigration based on investment) or Hong Kong Chinese who knew better than to show off their wealth too much, not knowing how the locals would react.

It’s not a Chinese Dudes tax when it doesn’t apply to all Chinese Dudes and Dude-esses.

So, unless I have been banned, maybe keep that in mind when you delete my posts of factual content (without even noting “DELETED” on the blog) that is nowhere near as offensive and sexist as your “Chinese Dudes Tax”.

#62 AisA on 02.10.17 at 10:39 pm

I can’t make this up.

The wife and I are to the point of drawing daggers over the purchase of a 3 bed 1.5 bath 6.5k sqft lot home 30 minutes from work, we figure we might snag it for 130k but she insists on offering no more than 125.

God bless her heart.

what crash….

#63 Suede on 02.10.17 at 10:42 pm

Haven’t heard anyone in van talk about RE all 2017.

No hype. No talk.

People are just talking about the weather. Slow stats reflect the snow, ice and cold. Economic numbers won’t be good for BC in dec and Jan.

#64 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.10.17 at 10:42 pm

#59 Al on 02.10.17 at 10:24 pm

All it took to normalize the RE market in Vancouver was a 15% tax on non-citizen buyers which we were told comprised no more than 5% of the buyers, but it did the trick. here in Wynnetario, our Premier waits for instructions from former Premier Dad.
———–

False. The Vancouver bubble had already burst prior to the 15% tax.

#65 Fuzzy Camel on 02.10.17 at 10:43 pm

This is an engineered housing bubble. If they removed all the CLOCA land locks, and cut immigration to a reasonable level, thousands of affordable new housing units would pop onto the market in a year.

This housing bubble is fuelled by mass immigration to major cities, CLOCA land locks to force “intensification” of the cities, and near zero rates.

Not to mention T2 has no intention of balancing the budget, so we have an endless flood of government jobs coming.

I wouldn’t sell now, I’d wait for the bubble to pop. You’ll know it’s popped when you see austerity. Until then, just sit back and watch the show!

#66 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.10.17 at 10:43 pm

… And the GTA bubble will also burst without any government intervention. Why? Because all bubbles burst.

#67 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.10.17 at 10:46 pm

Ross Kay calls it “capital exhaustion”.

Makes sense… There is a finite amount of capital available to flow into GTA RE, yet the prices are rising exponentially. At some point (soon), it’s game over.

#68 The Great Gazoo on 02.10.17 at 10:46 pm

Daniel Tarullo is resigning as a Federal Reserve governor, effective April 5. Trump can now fill 3 of 7 Fed seats. Wonder if he will be looking to put in new governors that will raise interest rates or keep them low for another 4 years??

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20170210a.htm

“Daniel K. Tarullo submitted his resignation Friday as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, effective on or around April 5, 2017. He has been a member of the Board since January 28, 2009.”

#69 Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 02.10.17 at 10:48 pm

#31 Crackpot on 02.10.17 at 7:58 pm

I think you might be on to something. Why else would the CIA throw Hillary under the bus with “e-mail issues” just before the elections, and be mum about anything about the Drumf. The attached states most of Drumf’s business was/is with Russian “businessmen”. (I have to assume if CNN knows this stuff, the CIA might also) Maybe he owes a boatload of $ to Russians in loans that he had lost ( but claimed losses for income taxes), and Putin has made a deal. We will help get you to be POTUS, and in return, you back off. It just seems we have entered a political “Twilight Zone”, where reality is a figment of your imagination

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/11/politics/trump-ties-with-russia/

You guys need to get out more. — Garth

#70 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.10.17 at 11:01 pm

#68 The Great Gazoo on 02.10.17 at 10:46 pm

Daniel Tarullo is resigning as a Federal Reserve governor, effective April 5. Trump can now fill 3 of 7 Fed seats. Wonder if he will be looking to put in new governors that will raise interest rates or keep them low for another 4 years??
—————–

Always remember, the Federal Reserve works for its owners, not Trump.

#71 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.10.17 at 11:05 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9dVQi-APZ8

#72 Self Directed on 02.10.17 at 11:10 pm

#23 Dan.t on 02.10.17 at 7:47 pm
Canadians have a lot of money. I’m envious.
……………………

Don’t be. Canadians don’t have a lot of money. They can finance a lot of money. A large basket of Canadians have basic employment, no security, no pensions, and meager salaries that can only service the debt because of ultra low interest rates. Corners are getting cut left and right, just to afford the house.

Canadians are simply doing what they have always done. Keeping up with the Jones. Appearances are everything. What’s underneath…. well, let’s worry about that some other day.

If the house doesn’t one day pay off, you can forget retirement.

#73 Bond Junkie on 02.10.17 at 11:10 pm

Crackpot I like what you be dishing out. Those are some solid 3-4th derivative tangents. Always think in the 4th derivative, it’s what smart traders do. Garth why can’t you publically admit that we are all pawns in this little game. The world stage is getting set for something and I think Crackpot actually isn’t too far off. You can still conduct rationale investment analysis within this broader framework you just have to understand the rules and constraints governing the system. Logical, rational, and sound with a small side of tin foil.

-Bj

#74 For those about to flop... on 02.10.17 at 11:12 pm

#60 WUL on 02.10.17 at 10:34 pm
FLOP:

Thank you for the forensic effort you are expending. With your Flop-o-Matic Colour Coded Avalanche Detector, can you detect fuchsia snow?

Keep it up.

Oh, can it read Calgary from the GVRD or must I acquire a franchise?

M61AB

//////////////////////////

About time you showed up.

I had a bulletin drawn up…

Washed Up Lawyer

Last seen Wednesday night in The Mac celebrating his 61st birthday.

Tipsy but still in control.

Regarding Vancouver Real Estate,I have seen some pain on the horizon for a lot of people, delusion and dreaming that it can all go back to the way it was.

I unearthed cases of multiple condos being bought on the same date,with the same dollar amount and then when the market started to lose it glamour,relisted on the same day by the same realty firm that someone mentioned up – thread about being dubious in their dealings and I remember them being on the news last year for infractions.

Richmond is rotten to the core.

There are a lot of people on the North Shore and Vancouver Westside that bought in the 3/4 million dollar range in the last two years that if they aren’t nervous by now they soon will be.

There are a lot of developments on the Eastside of Vancouver that were bought in the 1.3./1.5 price range that are in trouble.4 that I know of within 2 blocks of my house.A lot of houses were bought to be knocked down but they are still standing in a lot of cases because there is no money to be made so they are being sold “as is”.

It you want to franchise Pink Snow in Alberta you owe me the princely sum of one Dos Equis beer.

Geelong Cats to win this years Australian football flag…

M42BC

#75 Self Directed on 02.10.17 at 11:35 pm

“So how is Justin planning on slowing down this juggernaut? Unknown for now.” – Garth

I think you know and are just not telling. Surely you must know a guy (or gal) with the inside track. It makes sense to me now that the Federal Government is indeed looking at this very closely, and are likely going to step in to save the GTA from its own stupidity. The GTA is probably considered too big to fail, and could cripple the Canadian economy.

What’s interesting to watch play out is whenever the Feds implement new policies nationally, the provinces, particularly BC, try to cancel it out with their own twisted policies.

Our Opportunity is Here Ad (it plays 100 times a day out here):
https://youtu.be/mYwhw-c4RjU

The cost of these relentless ads to the tax payer… unknown:
https://www.biv.com/article/2016/5/bc-government-reveals-another-3-million-ads/

#76 leinad on 02.10.17 at 11:41 pm

If there is a debt problem Canada can do QE just like the US…..Devaluation of the currency is a good think…it’s like ballistic jelly….no shot can bring it down…with QE all shocks are absorbed…it’s the New Economy where debt does not matter any more! Debt is leverage…leverage yourself long enough and your debt is wiped away by equity….debt does not matter!

#77 leinad on 02.10.17 at 11:47 pm

Bombardier….is like maple syrup…You don’t really need it but it’s part of our identity…great to work there because they will never go BK…It’s a Canadian taxpayer bail out favorite……they invented the snowmobile…that’s gotta be worth something eh!
Certain Corporations are not owned by the government…but they are still eligible for free money…Air Canada is another example…

#78 Foreign Capital in BC on 02.11.17 at 12:05 am

Oh my bears, it looks like you prematurely celebrated the ‘crash’ or ‘correction’ of the Vancouver market – pretty much like you have done every year. My favourite is looking at the decline of sales in Dec and pointing to yearly lows in sales and prices – which happens every year…

Anyways, looks like the BC Foreign Buyers Tax will be tweaked to the point of being swiss cheese – which will allow the flood of foreign capital back into the market. If the market swings back up, or prices hold, you will have your explanation…

By the way, Ian Young, the SCMP reporter is a true investigative reporter and his stories through the SCMP forced the BC newspapers to actually cover the stories with foreign buyers and their impact.

He has does great exposes on how the CRA turned a blind eye to money laundering through houses since 1996; the fact that hundreds of thousands of investor immigrants under the Investor Immigrant Program paid minimal tax if any – 1/3 paid less than a nanny or refugee while 2/3 paid none; and the rash of students that have bought multi-million dollar homes in Vancouver. This last point is key as the tweaking of the tax that will allow those same ‘students’ to buy homes with a work permit – easy to obtain as a student…

Still waiting on an explanation as to why many parts of BC have experienced 20% plus price increases in the last year while Vancouver sales and prices declined….it is not like their economies have been jolted by a rash of new high paying jobs or that people just realized that interest rates were low.

Nothing to do with foreign capital being diverted elsewhere because of the tax I am sure….cough, cough, cough.

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2069712/vancouvers-foreign-buyer-tax-and-work-permit

#79 Mr Brightside on 02.11.17 at 12:30 am

Why does everyone on this blog wanna see blood on the streets? Sure prices are high in RE but so is the stock market whats the diff? You guys can get angry about debt to income in this country, but i could say the same about stock prices and doubly high pe ratios. Not too mention established tech companies with ratios above 80 to the hundreds.
In no scenario are you guys invested in the market see growth with a housing crash or interest rates going up.
I love how free market you pretend to be but seemingly pray for T2 to raise rates or add more regulation to housing. If it crashes it crashes. Let it happen on its own. Just cause you guys hold underperforming assets that arent tax free doesnt mean you should wish doom on people you dont know. You already lost. You cant say i told you so eight years wrong. Even if the market goes down 25% we are still up 100%+ in the gta over the last few years.

#80 Self Directed on 02.11.17 at 12:34 am

#24 Bank of Millenial on 02.10.17 at 7:49 pm

Whipping boy ->

http://www.theprovince.com/business/cnw/release.html?rkey=20170210C8938&filter=4007

TORONTO, Feb. 10, 2017
Home Capital Group Inc. (the Company) stated that it received an enforcement notice from staff of the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC).
……………………………………
And their Share price actually went up today… Marc Cohodes must be completely stupefied.

Sorry Marc, no one told you Canada is a really messed up place to live or do business. Pray for us.

#81 fishman on 02.11.17 at 12:42 am

In the interior of B.C. a friend lives next to the 49th/. Hobby farms area (everyone plays farmer & makes enough to qualify for farm tax status). One winter night the dogs start barking & the motion lights go on. Neighbours get on the phone & pretty soon they figure out there’s 3 guys moving through the fields & hiding behind out-buildings. They phone the RCMP, but it seems only one car can make it right away & everybody else is a couple hours away. One guy hops in the car & directs the cop to where the three guys are hiding, but she gets the car stuck & is so fat that she couldn’t hike across one snowy field, let alone chase three skinny guys over barbed wire.

So the Queen’s Cowgirl phones the Yankee border guards & shortly a SUV arrives & my friend hops in the back with the dog. He directs him to where the fugitives are hiding & they take off running. My friend says aren’t you going to send the dog after them? No way, if their Mexican cartel guys they’ll kill my dog. About 4 hours later the Yanks & hobby farmers round up three skinny, cold , wet, poorly dressed & shod Mexican border jumpers.

I was thinking about this while listening about the Somalis coming across snowy farms in Manitoba. Lets see, there’s 12 – 15 million illegals plus despised on work & student visas down there. Say the Trump pushes hard to send them all back from whence they came NOW. Sure hoping Lil Potato plays kissy kissy with the Trump.

#82 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.11.17 at 12:49 am

Don Mills crap shack sells for $2.3 Million dollars – a staggering 1.15 Million dollars over ask.

31 offers, 175 showings over 9 days.

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/02/10/don-mills-home-sells-for-115-million-over-asking.html

#83 Crackpot on 02.11.17 at 12:55 am

“You disappoint me – Garth”

I think I did a fair amount of warning it was tinfoil hat thinking.

#84 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.11.17 at 1:07 am

#76 leinad on 02.10.17 at 11:41 pm

If there is a debt problem Canada can do QE just like the US…..Devaluation of the currency is a good think…it’s like ballistic jelly….no shot can bring it down…with QE all shocks are absorbed…it’s the New Economy where debt does not matter any more! Debt is leverage…leverage yourself long enough and your debt is wiped away by equity….debt does not matter!
————-

Lol. The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency, it exports its inflation.

We would look more like this:

http://www.nta.ng/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/0adb6b74ac031c099f2508f3e87e46f0.i600x450x486.jpeg

But, do go ahead and lever up, debt doesn’t matter!

#85 When is the housing correction .. on 02.11.17 at 1:13 am

Coming to Toronto ?

Lol

#86 Crackpot on 02.11.17 at 1:16 am

#40 Pete, #42 DON,

I know Garth doesn’t like it when we don the tinfoil, but it needs to be done from time to time.

#58 Smoking Man

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bd2B6SjMh_w

#69 GLK

I doubt that Putin has anymore on Trump than we’ve already seen. He’s had a camera pointed at him for years and the most he did was say he could grab groupies wherever he wanted.

They threw Hillary under the bus because she was an awful candidate, no worse could be come up with, and it is time for a change in messaging.

#73 BJ

No idea if I am right, just trying to think 4 steps ahead as you would in chess or as you say 4th derivative. Of course as soon as the other player makes a move you have to re-evaluate your whole strategy.

#87 Boots on the Ground in Ptld on 02.11.17 at 1:59 am

Fill in a newbie-what are the thoughts on these two charts?

I guess maybe it only tells us that Americans smartened up a tad with regards to the house as an atm deal?

https://mhanson.com/1-30-hanson-cash-refi-plunge-hit-consumer-spending/

And this just tells us that QE is alive and well?

https://mhanson.com/2-1-hanson-house-prices-main-street-bubble-1-0-echo/

#88 Freedom First on 02.11.17 at 2:06 am

#69

Yes. Best comment of the day!

You guys need to get out more. -Garth
…………………………………………………………….

My life was meant to be enjoyed. The oldtimers in my life told me that. They said leave the slavery to everyone else. And they explained why too. As some of them had lived a life of it. I will be forever in their debt.

Stress is like a plague.

Some of them thanked me after too. As they said they enjoyed living life vicariously through me.

That was when people could speak the truth without the Politically Correct Nazis being everywhere you turned.

I did learn this on my own though. Not everyone is happy that I am happy. I can see their facial expressions when they look at me.

#1
Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics

#89 What will cause it to crash? on 02.11.17 at 3:01 am

#20 Fed-up

Invariably, it used to be job sucking recessions where people were in fear of losing everything. You point out that despite job losses, AB RE still not dropping like a rock.

I think it is cheap money and its availability that is keeping everything afloat.

When and if rates rise, then 416 RE will likely crash as has YVR RE.

Or it will be some unforeseen economic event that will create fear and people will stop spending.

Who knows what it will be this time. Maybe another Morneau measure to cool RE.

#90 Euro observer on 02.11.17 at 5:41 am

The problem is not that millennials have money, so they can be taxed, the problem is that they don’ have money so they ‘need’ more debt.

————————————–

#76 leinad on 02.10.17 at 11:41 pm
If there is a debt problem Canada can do QE just like the US…..Devaluation of the currency is a good think…it’s like ballistic jelly….no shot can bring it down…with QE all shocks are absorbed…it’s the New Economy where debt does not matter any more! Debt is leverage…leverage yourself long enough and your debt is wiped away by equity….debt does not matter

————————–
If you truly believe what you wrote:

1. You will never retire and your kids will never have a well paid job.

2. Put some money in gold stocks, as zn alternative for the pension you will never get.

#91 Euro observer on 02.11.17 at 5:46 am

#75 Self Directed

They will do whatever they always do – hide it and lie about it while the number of GTA foreclosure mounts, they will ‘rationalize’ sales, maintaining tight supply for years while leaving foreclosed by CMHC homes empty hoping that the stellar inflation will fix things. For the next 20 years.

Governments, specially corrupted or incompetent one have no place in messing with markets or in determining the cost of money.

#92 Euro observer on 02.11.17 at 5:48 am

And the bottom line:

The faster you get YOUR money out of the hands of these greedy bastards, the better.

#93 maxx on 02.11.17 at 7:42 am

“So how is Justin planning on slowing down this juggernaut?”

Restoring the TFSA limit would be a good start. By making saving and other investment possibilities more attractive, housing might eventually return to what it’s meant to be- shelter. Debt levels, if left unchecked, will destroy our economy. Utterly.

“But I see a whipping boy ahead. Guess who?”

…and mostly by his own cohort.

#94 Financial System Review on 02.11.17 at 8:35 am

The latest “Financial System Review” (Dec. 2016) by the Bank of Canada is worth a read (click link below).

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/fsr-december2016.pdf

#95 Harry Butt on 02.11.17 at 8:37 am

#77 leinad on 02.10.17 at 11:47 pm
Bombardier….is like maple syrup…You don’t really need it but it’s part of our identity

……………………………………………………………………..

Kind a like Blackberry

#96 Uninsured Residential Mortgages on 02.11.17 at 8:44 am

The attached table by Statistics Canada is its latest mortgage loans report of the chartered banks.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&id=1760014&p2=33

Note the continuous increase in uninsured residential mortgage loans outstanding in Canada. There’s no letting up.

#97 Felix on 02.11.17 at 8:45 am

So, yet another stupid dog pic, Garth?

And here we’d thought you’d gotten our message…..

Keep this up, and we will TrumpShake you :(

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2017/02/10/whats-up-with-donald-trumps-weird-handshakes.html

#98 Reply to #16, #21 on 02.11.17 at 8:54 am

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” – Albert Einstein

“My wealth has come from a combination of living in America, some lucky genes, and compound interest.” – Warren Buffett

“Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.” – John Bogle

“Men … think in herds … they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.” – Charles Mackay

#99 Victor V on 02.11.17 at 8:58 am

Brampton home draws 532 showings and 82 offers; And by the way it sold for more than $200K over its asking price

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/real-estate-offers-1.3974147

#100 k y chen on 02.11.17 at 9:28 am

#62 AisA on 02.10.17 at 10:39 pm

if you want it . Bid the asking price as your price . There is always another house or buy a lot & built your own using local services .

#101 Tony on 02.11.17 at 9:44 am

Re: #14 TurnerNation on 02.10.17 at 7:20 pm

You underestimate what tariffs or border taxes will do to interest rates in America. I doubt Poloz will let the Canadian dollar drop below 50 cents U.S.

#102 zee on 02.11.17 at 9:49 am

Garth, I thought it was harder to buy a house with slightly higher interest rates and tougher mortgage requirements. with no wage inflation and average job market, so how do you explain these prices? how are the bankers approving these mortgages.

#103 Leo Trollstoy on 02.11.17 at 10:05 am

GTA real estate going to the moon!!

Brampton home had 532 showings, 82 offers and sells $200k over ask baby!

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/real-estate-offers-1.3974147

That’s what happens when you list a $700,000 house for $500,000. — Garth

#104 Leo Trollstoy on 02.11.17 at 10:50 am

That’s what happens when you list a $700,000 house for $500,000. — Garth

TIL crappy Brampton house = $700k

#105 MattL on 02.11.17 at 10:56 am

Moisters are responsible for this? That doesn’t make any sense. If millennials are terrible at saving, how are they buying 1M homes?

It would take 200K down and 200K family income to qualify for a mortgage to buy one of these places. Even if the bank of mom and dad are spotting the 200K, the moister still needs significant income to buy one of these homes. The numbers just don’t add up. If millennials are driving this boom then they must be doing something right to be able to make the payments on these homes. Or, the banks are lending recklessly, which is not my experience with Canadian FI’s.

Does anyone believe that these homes are filled with 30 year olds with 80k family incomes?

#106 Ole Doberman on 02.11.17 at 11:04 am

#53 DaleFromCalgary on 02.10.17 at 9:25 pm

I measure economic activity by food courts. In the TD Square food court in downtown Calgary, it used to be that I had to get there by 11h45 to be sure of getting a seat. Now I can walk in anytime during the lunch hour. This is in the heart of the skyscrapers.

The Arby’s in this food court just went out of business. The three retail levels have all have vacant storefronts.

Yet it is that in my neighbourhood of Altadore (central southwest Calgary, middle-class homes) houses are selling quickly at list price. I walk by the Sold signs every day. Alberta’s economy has been gutted by low oil prices and the Dipper’s insane policies, yet people are still buying houses and condos.

Are those people insane? Who are they?

It can’t be confidence that oil prices will recover. Once Trump gets going, the market will be flooded with fracked oil, which will keep prices down.

The markets aren’t just irrational, they’re insane.
——————————————————-
In my hood of Varsity it’s the same, houses never sit too long before sale.

Maybe the buyers are being low balled and bailing – they never say what the house sold of.

I know a lady that bought a house recently as a rental property and said she bought the low and things are about to pick up again – mind you her son is an out of work rough neck.

She still hasn’t been able to rent the place out.

My thinking is nothing goes up or down in a straight line (other than The Greaterfools page hits of course.)
There is will head fakes and dead cat bounces along the way.

A colleague at work recently said her property tax went up cause her home value went up $5k – hmmm and everybody elses went down?? I think she’s in denial though and gets by by fabricating sh#t. She is one of those who feels houses only go up.

#107 Happening now on 02.11.17 at 11:04 am

At sone point this issue had to properly recognized and addressed, to simply dismiss it as a non event is injustice !!!

https://www.google.ca/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4214814/amp/Foreign-buyers-driving-home-prices-Vancouver.html

#108 Ronaldo on 02.11.17 at 11:07 am

#79 Mr. Brightside

”Sure prices are high in RE but so is the stock market whats the diff?”
——————————————————————
Those investing in the stock market are not 99% leveraged, they are diversified and can dump their stocks with a keystroke whenever they want to. Not that hard to figure out.

#109 JimH on 02.11.17 at 11:07 am

#37 Starbucks on 02.10.17 at 8:11 pm
“Can someone please explain to me why the Canadian government would give a Loan to bombardier? If they go bankrupt what’s the big deal? Someone will replace them…”
=================================
1. Bombardier is a big employer and is a big player in the Quebec economy.
2. As most sales (planes and trains) are to foreign buyers, Bombardier helps out Canada’s balance of trade.
3. Bombardier’s enterprise value is somewhere around $15.5Billion (US); Bombardier couldn’t be replaced overnight! Additionally, it’s market cap is ~$5Billion. From a loan standpoint, this helps make it “credit positive”.

From an investment standpoint, there is no doubt that Bombardier continues to struggle, and the stock price’s volatility will probably continue to reflect that.

From a Bullish perspective;
The Quebec and Canadian governments will continue to stand behind the business, enabling it to eventually emerge from this difficult period;
New CEO Alain Bellemare is competent and has brought in an impressive management team that will turn around the business and ramp up C Series production;
The transportation business remains strong and will cushion challenges and cash demands in the commercial and business aircraft units.

From a Bearish perspective;
The C Series will require even more cash infusions because of higher-than-expected up-front losses on the first units delivered plus inventory increases;
Transportation will continue to post weak operating margins and fail to transition out of loss-making contracts in its rolling stock business;
Business aircraft will be forced to cut production even more than already planned because of the challenge from Gulfstream combined with a weak market, pressuring top-line growth and margins.

After all is said and done, Morningstar’s Fair Value Estimate is $2.45 US, well above the current stock price, and Credit Suise has raised it’s outlook.

That said, anyone investing in the company should carefully consider their risk profile, and most definitely be prepared to be in it for the long haul, as Bombardier probably won’t be out of the woods until late 2019 or 2020 at the earliest.

just my 2-bits worth! Good luck!

As for your question about where to park funding in your TFSA, I suggest you look carefully at a balanced collection of ETF’s with decent volume (for liquidity) and US exposure…

#110 Happening now on 02.11.17 at 11:07 am

At some point this issue has to properly recognized and addressed, to simply dismiss it as a non event is a injustice !!!

https://www.google.ca/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4214814/amp/Foreign-buyers-driving-home-prices-Vancouver.html

#111 DON on 02.11.17 at 11:08 am

#78 Foreign Capital in BC on 02.11.17 at 12:05 am

Oh my bears, it looks like you prematurely celebrated the ‘crash’ or ‘correction’ of the Vancouver market – pretty much like you have done every year. My favourite is looking at the decline of sales in Dec and pointing to yearly lows in sales and prices – which happens every year…

**************

Wow! yup it will go on forever right. You do know a bubble can pop when it gets too big without an economic shock…I take it that won’t happen as Canada is doing marvelous these days.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/osc-serves-home-capital-group-with-enforcement-notice-over-disclosure-of-problems-with-applications

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/the-housing-bubble-has-burst-economist-warns-market-imbalances-threat-to-economy-in-long-run

As has been sad on this blog and validated by others, real estate started the downturn months before the politically motivated – Foreign tax was applied and it is an election year and the only thing going for the bc economy was real estate. Canadians have bought multiple properties and as the debt load increases….yikes

#112 jay on 02.11.17 at 11:08 am

We need to increase immigration to replace worker and lower house price. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/news/9169292/Immigration-can-push-down-house-prices-Cambridge-study-suggests.html

#113 crossbordershopper on 02.11.17 at 11:12 am

for the millions of canadians who live in 200K homes, from small town saskatchewan to Nova Scotia and wherewhere between, i find it kinda weird. If someone said, pack your bags and here is a cheque for a million bucks, why would you still go to work? live the rest of your life in many places in canada and get the sun for six months in mexico, cuba , and 20 other nice countries, and come back to Canada in summertime to visit friends and family.
maybe i am confused, are there like millions of millionaires in Canada? if you own a house outright you are, i think its crazy, i truely dont understand, i see poverty everywhere, the lady infront of me at the discount grocery store, was short 2 dollars and 12 cents, she had to choose to either put the milk back or the diapers. it took about 30 seconds for her to decide, and being there right beside her, i could almost think along side her, it was sad and surreal. Millionaires’s? maybe i am confused, so if poor people cant move because they have no money, and rich people dont move, no wonder you have no listings. like no listings, everyone is frozen, so you bring in some immigration and its a feeding frenzy,
she chose the diapers. my choice too.

#114 DON on 02.11.17 at 11:13 am

#79 Mr Brightside on 02.11.17 at 12:30 am

Why does everyone on this blog wanna see blood on the streets? Sure prices are high in RE but so is the stock market whats the diff? You guys can get angry about debt to income in this country, but i could say the same about stock prices and doubly high pe ratios. Not too mention established tech companies with ratios above 80 to the hundreds.
In no scenario are you guys invested in the market see growth with a housing crash or interest rates going up.
I love how free market you pretend to be but seemingly pray for T2 to raise rates or add more regulation to housing. If it crashes it crashes. Let it happen on its own. Just cause you guys hold underperforming assets that arent tax free doesnt mean you should wish doom on people you dont know. You already lost. You cant say i told you so eight years wrong. Even if the market goes down 25% we are still up 100%+ in the gta over the last few years.
****************

If housing is never going down…why are you defending. You need to work out your percentages. Housing is based on irrational extremes, not fundamentals and China is curbing capital outflows and now bit coin. Oh yah they are not making anymore land in Canada.

#115 traderJim on 02.11.17 at 11:14 am

The housing and debt bubble can go on a LOT longer.

Not saying that it will, but don’t expect a crash tomorrow.

Japan has shown just how much debt a government can pile on, pay almost no interest on. It’s astonishing.

So the US could easily double it’s current $20 trillion in debt (not counting a whole lot of entitlements).

Trump will add maybe $10T, next president should get it to $40T easily. That could still not result in a crash.

But doubling again to $80T will be the end. The last doubling may be much quicker than the current rate of 7 or 8 years.

So still lots of time to enjoy the bubble ride.

Only thing different about the Japan scenario is that their real estate prices have been declining for decades, not sure what the difference is.

Oh, maybe because Japan does not allow immigration, period. (5 year work permits the best you can get)

But Americans who do not want completely open borders are the racists….okaaaay then.

(Just to be clear, I, like most free market capitalists, am all in favour of immigration, it’s moral and good for business. But choosing people who MIGHT be a danger over people you know are not a danger is not very intelligent if you ask me.)

#116 Conspiratard on 02.11.17 at 11:18 am

#31 Crackpot

You are on to something, brother.

#117 Danforth on 02.11.17 at 11:19 am

Glebeholme is “…a sketchy part of 416 ..” ???
Hardly… this is a good family neighbourhood!

I live a 3 minute walk from that house on Glebeholme.
Based on that benchmark, my place is worth 1M !!

#118 Doug in London on 02.11.17 at 11:20 am

For the sellers, it looks like 2 more cashed in their winning lottery tickets recently. As for the greater fool buyers, did I hear something about looking for a whipping boy?

#119 traderJim on 02.11.17 at 11:23 am

Scott Adams once again had the reasoned response to the hysterical screaming that ‘chances that you will be killed by a terrorist are .00000000000000003%’

Of course the chances that I, personally, will be killed by a terrorist are incredibly small.

But the chances that SOMEONE will be killed by a terrorist are extremely high, 100% or very close to it.

So if you advocate for absolutely no vetting of immigrants based on known risk factors (coming from a high risk country, attending radical Islamist school, etc etc) then you are saying you believe that a guaranteed loss of life by some innocent person is acceptable, just to be able to virtue signal.

Meanwhile, we continue to turn away people all day every day based on the fact they might stay and get a job.

Trump has once again played the game brilliantly, whether intentional or not, as now if the ban is not upheld all blame for every future attack falls on Trump’s opponents.

If no attacks occur, Trump looks great.

And his opponents think over-turning the ban is a ‘win’.

I really thought they’d have learned something by now.

#120 jay on 02.11.17 at 11:39 am

http://www.wnd.com/2017/02/study-most-government-workers-could-ge-replaced-by-robots/ I think the link header says it all .

#121 Ole Doberman on 02.11.17 at 11:44 am

Gartho when I look on rentfaster map view Calgary is littered with blue dots, tons of apartments.

What happens to these if they don’t rent them? At what point does it become clear Calgary is indeed the next Detroit?

Would $1000-1300 2 bedrooms go as low as $800 – or would that be unrealistic? We’ve never been here before.

#122 DON on 02.11.17 at 11:55 am

http://www.timescolonist.com/business/census-thousands-of-unoccupied-dwellings-in-victoria-1.9748692

#123 Capt. Serious on 02.11.17 at 12:08 pm

Does anyone believe that these homes are filled with 30 year olds with 80k family incomes?

Well established people are not queueing up to nab one of these “gems”. $100k household income is pretty easily done for two working people with decent jobs. They’re ensuring their debt slavery for life, but to each his own, right?

#124 Ace Goodheart on 02.11.17 at 12:11 pm

Makes me wonder what my big old three bedroom semi with the huge backyard (right now used for tenant parking) might be worth in this market. It’s actually liveable and not a teardown (nice old place, when it is opened up it has this cool airy feel to it when you walk through its huge late 1800’s era bedrooms under the sunshine coming through the 120 year old full length skylights.

Bought it for 279,000 and it is split into three units with tenants. Located in the 416 south of highway 401.

Not selling….yet…..

#125 Capt. Serious on 02.11.17 at 12:17 pm

Sure prices are high in RE but so is the stock market whats the diff?
Leverage.

You guys can get angry about debt to income in this country, but i could say the same about stock prices and doubly high pe ratios.
They are not the same. Debt is a promissory note dictating you will pay the holder of said debt principal and interest. P/E is simply how much you are paying for current earnings.

Not too mention established tech companies with ratios above 80 to the hundreds.
So, do not buy those companies. This is hard?

In no scenario are you guys invested in the market see growth with a housing crash or interest rates going up.
And why not? As long as companies continue to earn money I assure you equity investors will do just fine over the long term.

I love how free market you pretend to be but seemingly pray for T2 to raise rates or add more regulation to housing. If it crashes it crashes. Let it happen on its own.
Ok. Just don’t complain when there is nobody to sell your house to.

Just cause you guys hold underperforming assets that arent tax free doesnt mean you should wish doom on people you dont know. You already lost. You cant say i told you so eight years wrong. Even if the market goes down 25% we are still up 100%+ in the gta over the last few years.
Which would matter if you’ve sold your house, but where else are you going to move? The market in Toronto is completely sick.

#126 I'm stupid on 02.11.17 at 12:29 pm

Garth has often referenced greed and fomo as the main driving force for this housing mess but I believe vanity is much more of a driver. The illusion of success and the need to feel like a winner will make people stupid. Poor people want to show off because they feel insignificant. Just like a guy with a fast car is compensating for other things. A real winner doesn’t care what others think and enjoys the spectacle of losers “faking it until they make it” because it will eventually lead to ruin.

#127 Reply to #104 on 02.11.17 at 12:52 pm

Matt, click the link below for a Bank of Canada review of household finances and financial stability. Chart 3 shows the mean debt, by age group and by type of credit, for 2010.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/review_winter11-12.pdf

The data is old, but it gives some insights. If anyone has more recent data, please share.

#128 Victor V on 02.11.17 at 12:54 pm

http://torontolife.com/real-estate/houses/chase-find-four-bedroom-home-left-midtown-scarbourgh/

Aspendale Drive (near Ellesmere and McCowan). Listed at $699,900, sold for $765,000.

This place had exposed wood beams, a basement fireplace and an English garden that brought back fond memories of life in the U.K. When offer day came, there was a three-way bidding war. Sanjiz and Cini started at $725,000, then upped their offer to $750,000. When that wasn’t enough, they threw in another $15,000 and won. The commute downtown takes more than an hour, but the kids love the big backyard.

#129 mathman on 02.11.17 at 1:04 pm

The math simply does not add up. You buy a POS 100 year old house for $1 Million, plop down 150-200k to make it liveable. Bank of Mom and Dad forks over 300k, the kiddies still need to make the pmts. This is what is happening all over the west end of Toronto.

The kiddies will pretend to be wealthy until they end up eating catfood. You need a 200k income at least to service a $1 million mtg in theory, but in reality if you want to actually live you should have 300k or more. Statistically, this income level puts you into a tail, which means it is a very small subset of the population, even in the GTA.

the other conflict right now is agents, because of the lack of listings are probably pushing their clients to bid well beyond what they would be comfortable bidding because they need the commission. Trust me the vast majority of GTA realtors are starving and have not sold a property in three months.

the longer this goes on, the larger the drop when we revert to the mean and it will cripple the CDN economy. What can our Gov’t do, rates are already at emergency levels?

Stay liquid my friends.

Math

#130 mathman on 02.11.17 at 1:12 pm

For the Toronto based blog dogs, here is my observation.

Things in the west get bid up to $1.2, $1.3 – homes over $1.5 are not moving fast. Anecdotally this tells me the limits at the bank of mom and dad are 300-400k, and the max the bank is winning to lend out is 700-900k. What this all means is these are average idiots paying these prices, not foreign buyers, not super ballers. So when rates rise, look out below. The parents are probably retired, forked over 25% or more of their net worth and are not wealthy, because their kids “need” a house.

Thoughts?

#131 Cyrilix on 02.11.17 at 1:27 pm

People always say, “the market is so expensive”. Yes, the market may be expensive. So don’t buy the market. Go do some of your own due diligence, learn some useful skills, figure out what isn’t expensive, what has growth potential, and invest in it. People have gotten to the point where they expect investing to somehow be “just buy the index” mindless and easy, rather than seeing it as a form of efficient capital allocation leading to growth. The worst part about this isn’t that you don’t receive any gains. You do, as history has proven, but there is no learning to be had, no true understanding of the risks that you’re dealing with.

#132 zee on 02.11.17 at 1:55 pm

I agree with mathman

bank of mom and dad are helping out since their own properties has gone up so much….but garth has always said that these baby boomers need to sell to live in retirement but this is not playing out. baby boomers are simply not selling in gta.

#133 MF on 02.11.17 at 2:11 pm

#123 Ace Goodheart on 02.11.17 at 12:11 pm

My parents paid the same price cash in 1993 for the house i grew up in. No bidding war because the market was stagnant and all the idiot specuvestors had lost their shirts. Never had any mortgage, and now it’s worth 1.1 ish.

They, like many boomers, have zero desire to sell and believe the market is way overvalued too.

This whole circus is laughable here in the gta.

MF

#134 when the whip comes down on 02.11.17 at 2:18 pm

#129 mathman – i think your assumptions have a lot of merit. Of course, anecdotal evidence is what it is. In any case, having a net worth of in retirement of $1mill does not make you wealthy by a long shot. I am over on the west coast, van isle. Similar situations over here during the last 15 months or so. Lots of out of town Van refugees coming over here buying after selling in YVR and also a new but small influx of foreign buyers. A smaller market than Van to be sure so even <10% out of town buyers/foreign buyers can have a relatively large effect especially when fomo is factored in. Went to view a place a couple weeks ago, asking $669,900. Decent size lot in an ok area. Sold for $850K and change over what even the realtors were expecting. Very low inventory, extremely low here for obvious reasons that have been outlined on this blog. Rexx Rock who posts here from time to time reckons avg family income in Victoria is $150K and that it is the "norm" here for bank of Mom to fork over $200K to the kids. Well, I consider myself fairly well connected to the tax planning professional services groups in town and I can tell you RRs assertion is absolute fiction. Yes, there are some families handing over monies to help out with RE but $200K??? That is far outside the bell curve way out on the long tail, so to speak. As for avg income of $150K??? We all can find the stats, plain wrong again. How long can the price ascent continue, we'll see. CMHCs warning was about 12 months too late. Van Isle is way over valued and is purely the result of desperate human behaviour.

#135 Alan on 02.11.17 at 2:56 pm

The insanity continues:

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/02/10/don-mills-home-sells-for-115-million-over-asking.html

#136 Doug in London on 02.11.17 at 3:45 pm

@Ace Goodheart, post 123:
What are you waiting for? I say cash in that winning lottery ticket RIGHT NOW while you can get a premium price.

#137 DON on 02.11.17 at 3:55 pm

#133 when the whip comes down on 02.11.17 at 2:18 pm

#129 mathman – i think your assumptions have a lot of merit. Of course, anecdotal evidence is what it is. In any case, having a net worth of in retirement of $1mill does not make you wealthy by a long shot. I am over on the west coast, van isle. Similar situations over here during the last 15 months or so. Lots of out of town Van refugees coming over here buying after selling in YVR and also a new but small influx of foreign buyers. A smaller market than Van to be sure so even <10% out of town buyers/foreign buyers can have a relatively large effect especially when fomo is factored in. Went to view a place a couple weeks ago, asking $669,900. Decent size lot in an ok area. Sold for $850K and change over what even the realtors were expecting. Very low inventory, extremely low here for obvious reasons that have been outlined on this blog. Rexx Rock who posts here from time to time reckons avg family income in Victoria is $150K and that it is the "norm" here for bank of Mom to fork over $200K to the kids. Well, I consider myself fairly well connected to the tax planning professional services groups in town and I can tell you RRs assertion is absolute fiction. Yes, there are some families handing over monies to help out with RE but $200K??? That is far outside the bell curve way out on the long tail, so to speak. As for avg income of $150K??? We all can find the stats, plain wrong again. How long can the price ascent continue, we'll see. CMHCs warning was about 12 months too late. Van Isle is way over valued and is purely the result of desperate human behaviour.
**************
You must be talking about Victoria, the rest of the island is not doing so well, houses are sitting check out zolo. Victoria Public sector is hiring partly do to political reasons to look like jobs are being created. The bulk of new jobs are service related and manufacturing is suffering. Times colonist article on 1000's of empty houses/condos (today's issue). And prices are silly for what you are getting. But like Vancouver is different from US and Toronto is different from Vancouver, we here in Hawaii North live in bliss, well that is until you want to get off the island. Island life is for some not all.

#138 Bottoms_Up on 02.11.17 at 3:58 pm

#128 mathman on 02.11.17 at 1:04 pm
————————
Don’t forget there are move-up buyers that can bring over substantial equity. So even if they plop down 1.2 large they may end with a more reasonable sized mortgage.

#139 Bottoms_Up on 02.11.17 at 4:04 pm

#122 Capt. Serious on 02.11.17 at 12:08 pm
———————————
Well people with 80k family incomes are being turned down as renters ($1800/mo), so I hardly believe they are out buying million dollar homes.

#140 MattL on 02.11.17 at 6:33 pm

#122 – you can’t buy those homes with 100K in income unless you have 500K down. Thats my point – if moisters are driving this ramp up then they either have massive incomes, or huge down payments. No one is buying these houses with 50K down and 120K in income.

#126 – yes Canadians have a lot of debt but that debt – at low interest rates with large amounts of equity behind it. I’m a dirty 1%r by income with a few 100K in savings and I would be stretched to buy a 1MM home. In fact I would need a 200K down payment to borrow 750k at 250K annual income. So if I can barely scratch out a mortgage (wouldn’t, we like our little home with little mortgage) to buy one of these shacks then I have to assume that the people that are either have bigger incomes or more equity. I just don’t believe that tight ass Canadian FI’s are lending 800K to guys with 10% down and 100K income.

#141 When the whip comes down on 02.11.17 at 8:14 pm

#139 MattL – the FIs undoubtedly are loaning $800k on a little north of $100k income. I know because they offered it up to me. I was completely taken aback.

#142 45north on 02.11.17 at 10:01 pm

mathman: You buy a POS 100 year old house for $1 Million, plop down 150-200k to make it liveable. Bank of Mom and Dad forks over 300k, the kiddies still need to make the pmts. This is what is happening all over the west end of Toronto.

Here’s how I think the bank thinks:
20% down payment gives the bank a 20% cushion
50% raised by power of sale
30% – the kids are good for it or most of it

my guess of who the whipping boy is: the kids oh yeah and Mom and Dad

#143 45north on 02.11.17 at 10:23 pm

When the whip comes down: the financial institutions undoubtedly are loaning $800k on a little north of $100k income. I know because they offered it up to me.

then on a $1 million house, the kids are not good for it! What the hell are the banks doing?

#144 Annek on 02.12.17 at 12:51 am

#137 Bottoms_Up on 02.11.17 at 3:58 pm
#128 mathman on 02.11.17 at 1:04 pm
————————
Don’t forget there are move-up buyers that can bring over substantial equity. So even if they plop down 1.2 large they may end with a more reasonable sized mortgage.”
—————
If you look at that piece of garbage in Don Mills that went for 2.3 M
Would you call that moving up?
I wonder what shack they lived in before, if this is moving up.

#145 Ace Goodheart on 02.12.17 at 11:24 am

#135 Doug in London:

“@Ace Goodheart, post 123:
What are you waiting for? I say cash in that winning lottery ticket RIGHT NOW while you can get a premium price.”

I keep thinking of doing that. Honestly the thought is in my head pretty much every week. In this market it is so hard to determine what a property is worth. We had one listed here a couple of weeks ago for 699,900 and it went for north of a million in the usual 20 person bidding war.

My hesitation comes from what they are building across the street from me. There is a brand new subway station going in, opening 2021. It isn’t just any subway. It is something known as a “transit hub”. So it has a UPX stop (this cool little train that goes from Union Station to Pearson airport) with one intervening stop between the hub and Union. Basically, when this thing opens, it will be possible to:

Walk out the front door of my large late 1800’s era semi, walk down the street about 200 meters, jump on a UPX train and be downtown, at Union station, in less than 15 minutes, with one intervening stop.

My question to myself is what is something like that actually worth? Three parking spots, or one spot and a large backyard, three huge bedrooms, skylights, a massive main floor with high ceilings (used to be a store). And you can get downtown in under 15 minutes, from a UPX stop that is 200 meters down the road.

That is my hesitation right now. I see upside. The whole thing was just a speculation anyway (I’ve never lived in it) and I paid as I said $279,000 in cash for it (didn’t need a mortgage because it was so cheap).

I just keep asking myself, what is this thing actually likely to be worth, in four years’ time, when they finish that transit hub? What would someone actually pay to live in this thing, if they happened to work downtown, had a family, wanted three bedrooms, a backyard, and a parking spot, and they didn’t want to commute?

#146 45north on 02.12.17 at 2:16 pm

Ace: Walk out the front door of my large late 1800’s era semi, walk down the street about 200 meters, jump on a UPX train and be downtown, at Union station, in less than 15 minutes, with one intervening stop.

key word: semi

the land should and will be redeveloped but you cannot redevelop a semi

I’d say cash in your chips.

#147 Tudval on 02.12.17 at 3:48 pm

#32 Victor V That house in Don Mills that sold for 2.3 mil: forget the house, it’s a dump – forget the size etc.. The only thing that matters is that that area is now prime location for building $3.5-4.0 mil mansions – it costs what, maybe $800 k to build, so there you go – any POS is “worth” 2 mil.

#148 Ace Goodheart on 02.12.17 at 6:19 pm

RE: #145 45north:

“key word: semi

the land should and will be redeveloped but you cannot redevelop a semi

I’d say cash in your chips.”

You may be right on that. I know the person who owns the other half of the semi. Together we have a condo sized lot, severed down the middle. We did our renos together and will be doing more. Makes me wonder if one day we’ll get an offer for the whole plot, from someone who realises that land across the street from a transit hub is basically unobtainium.

We’re both speculators. Neither of us live in our buildings. His is a two unit rental, mine is three (at some point in the past, someone “dug down” my basement and built an apartment, meaning I have three units).

It’s a hard decision to make. I keep thinking just list it, take my profit (likely around 600k to 800k right now), invest it (after capital gains taxes are paid on it) and then forget about it. Then I think “but what is going to happen when they finish that transit hub?”

#149 Editrix on 02.13.17 at 10:01 am

My husband’s parents bought the Glebeholme pile in 1952 for about $18,000 and they felt they paid too much at the time. They moved out in the next decade.