Lukewarm

Days ago we detailed the gulf between the deflating West and the bloating East. Apparently it’s worse than anyone thought.

First, the melt.

The official realtor stats out of Vancouver are awful, but fail to tell the real story. The local board says home sales crashed 40% last month (year/year). They were a fat 11% lower than the month before, and ten points below the 10-hyear average. “It’s a lukewarm start to the year,” deadpanned board boss Dan Morrison.

You bet. Fewer than 450 detached houses changed hands, a 57% crumble from the same time last year – and while sales wilt, supply surges. New listings are up 7% while total active listings have gained 14% over last year. It’s classic. Demand down and supply up. Given this dynamic, there’s no way prices can remain static, even though real estate’s notoriously sticky.

Here are the official declines: the Frankenumber for all houses, -3.6%. For detached homes it was -6.6% over the last six months (to $1,474,800)

Well, many people disagree. In fact the analysis of daily MLS stats published here earlier in the week put a lie to the official RE numbers. As you know they showed a 59% drop in solds last month, with a 14% reduction in price. The number of $3 million+ houses changing hands was 79% lower, with a current supply equal to four years of demand. Over $5 million, there’s a five-year supply. Worse, 91% of all the sales in January were for less than asking.

Now here’s bad boy realtor/housing analyst Ross Kay’s summary for YVR:

  • Average purchase price paid last month, -19.2% (year/year)
  • Over 84% of all homes listed for sale failed to find a buyer in January.
  • Sales last month equaled the drop experienced in January, 2009 – the credit crisis.
  • By the time someone who bought in January takes possession 90 days later, they’ll have lost an average of $32,000 in equity.

So, who’s zooming whom? Beats me. But right now my money is not on the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

The contrast with Toronto could hardly be greater, where the boil has yet to burst. Demand is outstripping supply, which has prices and emotions rising. The 5,188 sales in January represented an 11% jump over the same month last year but new listings tumbled 17%. The result was as inevitable as Vancouver’s decline – a price increase. More than 22%.

Here’s what the Toronto board had to say about it: “The number of active listings on TREB’s MLS system at the end of January was essentially half of what was reported as available at the same time last year. That statistic, on its own, tells us that there is a serious supply problem in the GTA — a problem that will continue to play itself out in 2017. The result will be very strong price growth for all home types again this year.”

Maybe. Maybe not. But for now the heat is on. The average detached in 416 is up 26%, to $1,336,640. In suburban 905, where happy cows once roamed, houses jumped 27% to a few bucks below a million. Meanwhile the fact most people cannot afford real estate with dirt has been driving them skyward. There’s now a 10-year low in condo inventory – merely a 4-month supply. (In contrast, there’s a 9 day supply of detached homes.) Listings of all types across the whole region are at a 16-year ebb.

What do these two markets tell us?

First, we’re in a spot of trouble. The economy, as discussed yesterday, is far too property-dependent. Current conditions in Toronto cannot and will not last because when average families can no longer afford average houses things have a way of correcting.

Second, any shock can impact a market in which prices are no longer supported by economic fundamentals. Mortgage rates. Job loss. A Trump border tax. Chinese Dude tax. Back-to-back Adele and Bieber concerts. Anything.

Third, the TO listings drought indicates a sick market. People are not selling because they fear buying. And how can you blame them? Having your prostate removed with a turkey baster would be more fun.

Fourth, credit is tightening. The banks ain’t stupid, and have been quietly, steadily reducing pre-approval amounts, appraising lower and lending less. Meanwhile Ottawa’s on the verge of even more cooling measures – which the 22% GTA January price hump will certainly hasten.

So, if you can afford a house and your spouse will debone you without one, go ahead. Just don’t expect to make any money. In fact, expect to lose some. Maybe a lot.

116 comments ↓

#1 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.17 at 5:49 pm

Wanna see a blockbuster Cover of Trump?
Just google Der Spiegel.

#2 Frank on 02.03.17 at 5:52 pm

So what does opportunity look like on the Vancouver side? When supply hits a certain mark? When days on market does? When do the sharks jump in?

#3 daveyboy on 02.03.17 at 5:56 pm

Thanks Garth, cpd rolling along nicely . Glad i am out of Toronto.

#4 Rainclouds on 02.03.17 at 5:58 pm

According to the unbiased reportage of real estate authority par excellence Broadway Skytrain

You, Ross, Flopper, VREB are quite simply, wrong……

To which I say: Dear BS. let us know when you have loaded up on more of that delicious permanently profitable Vancouver RE.

#5 Victor V on 02.03.17 at 5:58 pm

Kevin O’Leary’s love letter to Kathleen Wynne:

https://www.facebook.com/kevinolearytv/posts/1336690143062149

#6 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.17 at 5:59 pm

Chinese New Year in Vancouver has come and gone.
Apparently, The Rooster did not wake up the Chinese dudes.
Quite the contrast to prior years.
Now the realtors are waiting for The Great White Hope in springtime.
My prediction is that RE in Vancouver is in for a knockout.

#7 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.17 at 6:02 pm

But, but, says the Realtor, it’s slow because of all the snow.

#8 Mike on 02.03.17 at 6:07 pm

Yawn….

This is how Canadians buy their homes.
Buyer: How much is this 2 Bed 2 Bath house worth?
Realtor : $900,000
Buyer: Thats cheap. Here are $1,000,000. You keep the change.

Bling**Bling**Rich..Rich Canadians

#9 Millenial-falcon on 02.03.17 at 6:08 pm

Hard to even find a media story with a price drop mentioned in vancouver . Just sales drop.

#10 Kevin's Fanzone on 02.03.17 at 6:09 pm

Speaking of the melt, there will be a foot of snow in great vancouver by Sunday. Climate change is definitely real. This is the biggest change in climate (cold) I have seen in my 25 years of living here.

#11 Kevin's Fanzone on 02.03.17 at 6:16 pm

#1 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.17 at 5:49 pm
Wanna see a blockbuster Cover of Trump?
Just google Der Spiegel.

___

This is exactly why the MSM is falling on its own sword globally but mostly in the USA/Canada. I would be my left arm the majority of Germans do not think this way.

#12 Doug t on 02.03.17 at 6:18 pm

2017 off to a hell of a start on all fronts – me thinks something wicked this way comes – buckle up

#13 Nemesis on 02.03.17 at 6:22 pm

“The economy… is far too property-dependent.” – PrescientGT

#WhatEconomy?,Or… #It’sBetterInBC?…

[Tyee] – We’ve Let Vancouver Become a Playground for Plutocrats

…”Whether we like it or not, B.C. has basically become a real estate economy. The BC Assessment office recently released numbers for 2017 showing that property values ballooned by a staggering $332 billion — 25 per cent — last year. This figure is more than five times the economic value of all goods-producing industries in 2015 combined and nearly double the size of our entire service sector that same year.

Not surprisingly, 90 per cent of the increased values from last year’s property gold rush were in the urban land bubble in the Lower Mainland, which increased by $298 billion in 2016. Real estate inflation within this tiny area, representing just two per cent of B.C.’s land area, eclipsed the entire provincial GDP — the actual goods and services produced by all British Columbians in 2015.”…

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/01/30/Vancouver-Plutocrat-Playground/

#14 Alice on 02.03.17 at 6:25 pm

@ #9 Millenial-falcon on 02.03.17 at 6:08 pm

That’s because most journalists don’t have the bandwidth to understand housing. Some articles turn up on Google News for “Vancouver real estate decline” from today.

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/vancouver-real-estate-sees-a-91-decline-in-luxury-foreign-buyers/

http://www.businessinsider.com/vancouver-home-sales-january-2017-2017-2

#15 yupkime on 02.03.17 at 6:39 pm

Sorry missed the memo M42BC …

What is the genesis of the term “pink snow” for dropping list prices?

Guessing with our recent snowfalls related to blood in the streets?

#16 Andrew Woburn on 02.03.17 at 6:42 pm

#1 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.17 at 5:49 pm
Wanna see a blockbuster Cover of Trump?
Just google Der Spiegel.
=====================

Right on! If you’ve ever doubted the power of a cartoon, check this out.

Advertising Age says, “Der Spiegel’s ‘America First’ Trump Cover Is Just Stunning”.

http://adage.com/article/media/der-spiegel-s-america-trump-cover-stunning/307840/

#17 Randy Belwood on 02.03.17 at 6:44 pm

The solar lights around my pool are all light up. A message from god, an early spring. Hooray.

#18 FNAiks on 02.03.17 at 6:45 pm

I knew it! Bank changed it’s online mortgage affordability calculator to lower customer expectations. I guess they know what’s coming.

Where’s the pop what was that guy? Canada needs you now more than ever.

#19 Damifino on 02.03.17 at 6:47 pm

#10 Kevin’s Fanzone

This is the biggest change in climate (cold) I have seen in my 25 years of living here
—————————————

This ain’t nothin’ buddy. The Vancouver winter of 1969 was a doozy. It took me two weeks to dig out my old Chevy. Here’s some stats and a few testimonials…

http://www.city-data.com/forum/weather/2042440-rate-climate-vancouver-airport-1969-a.html

#20 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 02.03.17 at 6:49 pm

President Donald J. Trump, as the representative of everything that is wholesome and good in the world, has promised to repeal the Johnson Amendment from about 60 years ago that threatens the tax-exempt status of churches that talk about politics. This is sure to send the wicked into satanic fits of rage. Talking both politics and religion has always been good for some excitement. The wicked, for their own selfish reasons, have always wanted the total “separation of the righteous and the state,” but never the “separation of the wicked and the state.”

President Trump is hoping to bring back free speech, which some people were hoping to get rid of forever and replace with the concept of perverse speech, where only those who hate God are allowed to express their opinions, and get to label anything they disagree with as hate speech and have it legally banned, and get to bully everyone else.

The devout and righteous Donald Trump envisions something truly wonderful for sincere believers all across America. Hopefully, the churches will use this freedom to promote the good ways of God as taught in the Bible to show everyone how to live decently for the good of all. Hopefully, the churches will not just misuse their newly-restored mouth rights by getting too Pharisaical and trying to force their own man-made, pagan-based customs and traditions on everyone else.

#21 Russ on 02.03.17 at 6:52 pm

Lucky dog.

‘ gets to watch ‘er lather up and rinse. A nice place to be.

Let’s keep it real guys. Keep calm and shower.

Cheers, R

#22 Andrew Woburn on 02.03.17 at 6:55 pm

Not everybody in the Republican Party likes the package of tax changes which include the feared “Border Adjustment Tax”.

“I’m not very enthused about it,” said Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, the chairman of the Finance Committee and the Senate’s top tax writer.

Another skeptic is John Cornyn of Texas, the No.2 Republican in the Senate.

“The question is, who is going to pay the tax?” Cornyn asked. “Is it going to be our citizens?”

Big business is organizing into opposing camps.

“More than 100 retailers including Wal-Mart, Target and key trade associations are launching a new coalition to fight the proposal.

Billionaires Charles and David Koch, who donate generously to Republican campaigns, are vocal critics of the plan. The Koch family has been in the oil refinery business for decades.

At least two business coalitions support the plan. One includes business giants General Electric, Dow Chemical, Boeing, Eli Lilly & Co., Honeywell and Oracle.”

It’s popcorn time.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TAX_OVERHAUL?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-02-03-12-06-24

#23 dr. talc on 02.03.17 at 6:56 pm

Current conditions in Toronto cannot and will not last because when average families can no longer afford average houses things have a way of correcting

the correction has already happend
the average people split
those who didn’t split have to buy condos
that’s the plan, TO is a UN smart city
who financed the building of the condos?
that’s right banks, so they must be sold
if they don’t sell they will be filled with displaced refugees
that’s actually plan B
Plan A is morneau screws the young families out
of any hope of a sfd house
thanks bill
actually H and F started the war on the family
Bill is just continuing the battle
Im not saying that people in TO who own sfd houses are above average, they’re not , they just inhabit houses, the present buyers and future buyers will inhabit condos
that IS the plan, the game has changed

#24 Ice Cold on 02.03.17 at 6:59 pm

Marketing propaganda by Dan Morrison and the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV); or, as they prefer to refer to it these days, “controlling and crafting the narrative”. Today’s news release and stats package from the REBGV perfectly illustrates why they have virtually no credibility and cannot be trusted. They bury statistical truths, collect flawed data and have zero independent oversight to audit their numbers.

For example, read the following quote from their Feb 2nd news release:

“Sales of detached properties in January 2017 reached 444, a decrease of 57.6 per cent from the 1,047 detached sales recorded in January 2016. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,474,800. This represents a 6.6 per cent decline over the last six months and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to December 2016”

Did you catch what they did there? For those of you newly acquainted to reading these monthly news releases and stats packages, the REBGV generally presents data for the month in question, compares those figures to the previous month’s data and to the 1-year data (year over year). If the REBGV had remained consistent to this principle, the aforementioned quote should have read:

“The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,474,800. This represents a 15.8 per cent increase over the last twelve months” . (Seriously, I did not invent that number. According to the REBGV fictitious benchmark, they say prices have appreciated 15.8% vs. January 2016 while sales, a non-fictional stat, have fallen 57%. Sure, that makes sense).

Beyond the fact their data and benchmarks are severely flawed and borderline fictitious, why did the REBGV deliberately craft this 6-month price drop narrative? Was it because they are attempting to send a message to the BC Liberals and the voters of BC regarding the foreign buyers tax that was enacted 6 months ago?
Or, was it because they were too embarrassed to state “according to our flawed benchmark that we tote out each month, single family detached properties in Greater Vancouver have increased 15.8 per cent from January 2016 to January 2017”.

Anyone’s guess as to their reasons but this is but one example of why you cannot trust Dan Morrison and the REBGV as a reliable and credible source of information. Statistics and data should not be crafted or shaped to suit one’s agenda, otherwise all credibility is lost. On that note, here is another beauty from today:

“From a real estate perspective, it’s a lukewarm start to the year compared to 2016,” Dan Morrison, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) president said.
Lukewarm? 57 per cent plunge in year over year sales and a 34 per cent plunge below the 10-year average sales for January is now being generously termed a lukewarm start to the year. I wonder what it would take to arrive at an ice cold description?

Lest we never forget, the REBGV is marketing firm for the real estate industry, not a messenger delivering unbiased market statistics.

#25 Yo on 02.03.17 at 7:09 pm

Thank you Victor V for Kevin’s letter link.
My pack of minions is moving from Garth to Kevin.
Yaaaay… we found a new master!

#26 South Etobicoke Trump White House Liaison Office on 02.03.17 at 7:10 pm

This streak of dog posting is most obnoxious…

Servile, pitiful creatures who whimper about seeking to do nothing more than amuse their owners.

And I’ve updated my screen name, just though I’d let everyone know.

#27 Greater Fool on 02.03.17 at 7:10 pm

Some more ugly numbers:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02/02/9-charts-canadian-housing-wtf_n_14441902.html

“When you take the suburbs into account, Toronto is more expensive than Paris, New York or Tokyo. (Here’s the proof if you don’t believe it.) And Vancouver is, additionally, more expensive than London and Los Angeles. Note also that Victoria, B.C., metro population 344,000, is more expensive than New York, Miami or Singapore.

Can it be demand for housing alone that’s driving these markets to such dizzying heights? Or is it Canada’s very low interest rates, combined with speculators and house-flippers?

The evidence suggests Canada’s house prices no longer have much to do with real demand for housing, or what people can afford. That’s not a situation that can last for very long.”

#28 Miss V on 02.03.17 at 7:10 pm

Met with a friend whose husband is a realtor in Vancouver. Apparently he is very worried. Only 30 sales for the entire month of January on the west side (not sure if that was just detached or detached/attached). Chinese New Year did not result in more activity realtors were hoping for.

#29 For those about to flop... on 02.03.17 at 7:14 pm

Being Friday night and all I thought I would do this as a case study.

Let’s play which house would you rather?

After surveying the scene the other day after a poster complained that there was nothing decent under 1.5m in Vancouver and knowing that people are paying 1 point something to live on the wrong side of the Fraser,if your job is in town, I thought I would show two completely different options at the same price range in the same hood.

These two houses are both end lots,different in age but similar size houses.

One is a 2015/2016 build depending on what document you look at,with small rooms and a small yard.

The second one is a 1963 house with larger rooms and a bigger lot.

I don’t want to influence any decisions so I won’t say which one I would choose.

But which one would you you rather…

M42BC

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2131785/3278-e-47th-avenue-vancouver-bc

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBUWkdXQg==

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2118927/2176-e-53rd-avenue-vancouver

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwM0NXVA==

#30 What Are The New Cooling Measures? on 02.03.17 at 7:17 pm

Garth, tell us what you know about these “new” cooling measures, I can’t wait!

#31 Tim on 02.03.17 at 7:21 pm

Bottom line: housing in Vancouver is still unafordable for 90 percent of Canadians and until Trudeau cracks down on money laundering ,it always will be.

Over 95% of transactions in YVR are now local-to-local. What money laundering? — Garth

#32 Smoking Man on 02.03.17 at 7:25 pm

What university teaches our kids these days. As demonstrated at Berkeley.

Hated is Tolerance.
Conformity is Diversity.
Consensus is Fact.
Obidiance is Achievement.

#33 Self Directed on 02.03.17 at 7:27 pm

Here on the West Coast, there’s a fresh blanket of white snow to cover up all the pink. Usually when there’s nothing to do outside (like all of January), people go to open houses. But not this year… something is going on.

Last year in Van, it did not snow like this. If it had, open house foot traffic would have been a nightmare to clean up. Luckily, only the crickets showing up today.

Fewer buyers, more listings, longer DOM, price adjustments, subjects… aaaah!! smell that? Paper equity burning.

On that note, Inspectors should be working again… anyone know if they are busy?

Flop… loving the pink snow reports. I read them all… keep them coming.

#34 Chaddywack on 02.03.17 at 7:34 pm

A lot of people who were bragging about equity before are going to be eating crow.

The latest comments I’m getting from my vancouver friends who are home”owners” (more like homeOWERS) is that “People will just not sell for a reduced price” they figure that if a house is listed at $3M in a $1.6M market that you just don’t drop the price and eventually someone buys it….think they’re called a greater fool if I’m not mistaken :)

#35 Leo Trollstoy on 02.03.17 at 7:34 pm

Remember 2 years ago when people were chirping about thousands and thousands of preconstruction condos were gonna come online and flood the Toronto market?

Well now it’s 2 years later and the demand continues to outstrip supply. Maybe the developers have a better handle on the Toronto market than you guys.

Toronto is the only Canadian city that the world knows.

#36 Mean Gene on 02.03.17 at 7:35 pm

In Vaincouver, it’s different this time… schmucks.

#37 For those about to flop... on 02.03.17 at 7:38 pm

Yupkime #15
Sorry missed the memo M42BC …

What is the genesis of the term “pink snow” for dropping list prices?

Guessing with our recent snowfalls related to blood in the streets?

//////////////////////////

Hey Yupkime,below is the original quote from January 8th when I was taking note of the some of the price reductions in Vancouver.

Yes ,you guessed right ,snow with a few drops of blood mixed in.

“I know we are supposed to avoid the yellow snow ,but the pink snow these homeowners are now eating can’t taste that good either…”

I just decided to run with it.

When winter ends and the spring starts and if the market is still in a slump the name will change to Pink Pollen…

M42BC

#38 Self Directed on 02.03.17 at 7:48 pm

#29 For those about to flop… on 02.03.17 at 7:14 pm
………………………………………………………………..
Neither of these are PILF status for me (Properties I’d like to Finance).

This was hard to think through.

I’m not into the old beer bottle stucco van houses, so would probably go for the new build. Also I would not be interested in tearing down to rebuild, even though I prefer the bigger yard. I guess the new build has zero chance of asbestos, lead pipes, or dead raccoons in the attic. But how fast was it constructed? They don’t make em tough like they used to!

#39 wow..... on 02.03.17 at 7:53 pm

“The result will be very strong price growth for all home types again this year.”

wow. guess the housing market tanking isn’t a lock?

#40 dr. talc on 02.03.17 at 7:58 pm

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/04/19/hit-canadian-home-makeover-show-love-it-or-list-it-faces-lawsuit.html


i generally don’t watch tv
except for hgtv,
all tv flaunts fiction as reality
fake news, fake renos

#41 Muslim ban legally fake on 02.03.17 at 8:04 pm

#1 Ponzius Pilatus

Wanna see a blockbuster Cover of Trump?
Just google Der Spiegel.

—-

You can also Google a Boston judge’s decision that refuses ACLU’s claim that the changes in immigration were “Muslim ban”.

That makes Der Spiegel cover “legally” fake news, propaganda.

In the meantime Der Spiegel forgot to cover how Angela Merkel’s hatchet immigration practice have impacted freedom of women walking, living, dressing worry free in their own country.

#42 hammer time on 02.03.17 at 8:08 pm

forget Toronto just buy in Hamilton. bring up the value of my rental properties up there so I can retire at 40. freedom 40!

#43 Victor V on 02.03.17 at 8:11 pm

Manitoba Hydro cutting 900 jobs, offering buyouts as part of restructuring

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/manitoba-hydro-cutting-900-jobs-offering-buyouts-as-part-of-restructuring/article33895722/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile

#44 45north on 02.03.17 at 8:15 pm

The contrast with Toronto could hardly be greater, where the boil has yet to burst. Demand is outstripping supply, which has prices and emotions rising. The 5,188 sales in January represented an 11% jump over the same month last year but new listings tumbled 17%. The result was as inevitable as Vancouver’s decline – a price increase. More than 22%.

Toronto real estate is on the up and up but it’s a long time until the election. June 7, 2018:
https://mcaf.ee/4wksb8
( original url was too long )

it’s enough time for Toronto real estate to come crashing down and enough time for the decline in real estate to be felt by the voters.

Wednesday’s post: Dominoes: In the GTA municipalities, property tax delinquencies are spiking dramatically. And the spike in delinquencies is taking place at the same time as prices are rising. What happens when prices fall? I’ll tell you what happens: all options are taken away from the owners. ( that’s a polite way of saying it )

Victor V: Kevin O’Leary has a compelling case against Wynne.

#45 WUL on 02.03.17 at 8:20 pm

Is YVR’s plunge in sales unrelated to any single economic factor outside of real estate market factors?

Calgary is a lot easier to figgger out. January Y/Y SFD sales were up 23.79%. WTI Jan. ’16 – $28. WTI Jan. ’17 – $53.83.

The beautiful simplicity of living in AB.

Caveat – “… still more than 20% below long term trends.” (CREB Chief Econolady)

M61AB

#46 Jeff Buckley on 02.03.17 at 8:21 pm

DELETED

#47 TurnerNation on 02.03.17 at 8:38 pm

This year’s end suggested dinner party topic will be Equity Building.
How, you bought da house in GTA, that went uppa up natch, and even though you therefore spend much of your time eating, sleeping, defecating like others, you are an Equity Building Machine.

Shock and awe.

#48 ANON on 02.03.17 at 8:39 pm

Time to start trekking West already?

#49 Smoking Man on 02.03.17 at 8:51 pm

No good reason for Vancouver home prices to ever be greater than Toronto.

Toronto a long friken way to go. We have clueless boomers who’s home values have gone through the roof. Regardless of them either loving their kids, or hating them and want them out. Helocks for the down payment. The demand side.

The owners smelling blood are holding off selling. Like where do you go. Bidding wars everywhere.

Equidor I’m thinking.. no extridion treaty.

I’ve done some bad shit…

HIsenberg lives.

When I’m set up and safe…I will fill you dogs in….

Now that’s a book.

#50 Confused on 02.03.17 at 9:10 pm

‘The economy is far too housing delendent ‘

The economy and market go hand in hand ,usually .

Why do you then say a housing crash will not lead to a declined tsx?

The economy sucked in 2016 and the TSX soared. Figure it out. — Garth

#51 Smoking Man on 02.03.17 at 9:25 pm

So the brown shirt Soros disiples are planning a mega protest in Texas for the big game on Sunday.

Ha….. just saying you have picked the wrong state and redneck football fans.

One thing to pepper spray and club woman with metal polls at Berkley.

Your going to get your ass kicked. Soros hoping to escalate and start a civil war hoping that the lefy loons rise up when they see their brothers get smacked around.

We’re Soros miss calculated. The lefy loons are cowers, after this week end.

There going to shut up when they see what happens when snow flakes meet salt.

#52 Saint Herb on 02.03.17 at 9:28 pm

When I see these increases month after month I try to remember that:

A 100% Increase is wiped out by a 50% Decrease.

Many people forget that..

#53 Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 02.03.17 at 9:30 pm

#20 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 02.03.17 at 6:49 pm
President Donald J. Trump, as the representative of everything that is wholesome and good in the world, has promised to repeal the Johnson Amendment from about 60 years ago that threatens the tax-exempt status of churches that talk about politics. This is sure to send the wicked into satanic fits of rage. Talking both politics and religion has always been good for some excitement. The wicked, for their own selfish reasons, have always wanted the total “separation of the righteous and the state,” but never the “separation of the wicked and the state.”
—————-
Sarcasm, Right?

#54 Ace Goodheart on 02.03.17 at 9:50 pm

Excellent time to be a buyer in the bond market. High quality stuff, being given away like it’s worthless (it’s not). Also a great time to be buying preferreds. No one seems to know what they’re worth anymore.

Lousy time to be buying stocks…..or houses……

#55 Rexx Rock on 02.03.17 at 9:55 pm

Your only retirement needed is your house if you live in GTA,Lower mainland and Victoria.Montreal will be the next explosion in prices.Look now and make some big money.Many people are bragging that their millionaires and retirement will be wonderfull but say its sad for their kids.At least these high prices are a great incentive to go to university or be a realtor.

#56 John on 02.03.17 at 9:55 pm

I was recently looking at this resource:https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/gmaps_rankings.jsp and all I can say is that we still have where to go up. I can definitely say that for example the people in Moscow will spend far more money on a mortgage than the ones in Toronto. So the prices can go up, even if we are “on the edge”. Everyone wants to live somewhere and nobody wants to pay rent.

#57 Jack on 02.03.17 at 9:56 pm

I was recently looking at this resource:https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/gmaps_rankings.jsp and all I can say is that we still have where to go up. I can definitely say that for example the people in Moscow will spend far more money on a mortgage than the ones in Toronto. So the prices can go up, even if we are “on the edge”. Everyone wants to live somewhere and nobody wants to pay rent.

#58 Jack on 02.03.17 at 10:06 pm

Wait… really! The prices went up the same way in Moscow after the end of USSR. Everyone wanted a job, everyone wanted to live there, that’s when the inventory started to get very low, and the prices went up like crazy. Since then the prices there didn’t go down at all, and the people started to buy condos like crazy. The same thing happens here now. Toronto as the biggest city in Canada, and since Canada is a “quiet” country, everyone will try to come here since it is the biggest probability of finding a job. And considering that now Trump won’t let immigrants into US, even more people will come in here…. In other words, like in Moscow, the people will start spending 70% of their income on houses. And then, the average price of a condo will get close to a mil….

#59 common sense on 02.03.17 at 10:14 pm

Mr. T..Do you have a closet crush on Adele and the Beebs? Quite a few references to them lately…we are a sympathetic group here..just come out and say it…it’s all good.

Compared to the level of financial hurt in the world, the Canadian real estate market is important to us but not even a speck in the grand scheme of things….

#60 Ret on 02.03.17 at 10:14 pm

#43 Manitoba hydro is cutting 900 jobs and offering buyouts. No mention of what that would cost per worker. So they are overstaffed and the party is over.

Last in, first out with some recall rights if a job opens up would be more than fair. Why the buyouts? Don’t staff ever retire, quit or just drop dead from boredom in government jobs?

Only in government do workers get buyouts. The rest of us get layoffs and maybe the chance to get our job back if business picks up again. That is, if the business hasn’t left the country or gone out of business entirely due to soaring hydro rates.

If anyone bothers to check back in 2-3 years, Manitoba Hydro will have probably hired back most of the workers getting those buyouts and packages now, and they will have even more workers on the payroll than they have now.

#61 RainBirds on 02.03.17 at 10:17 pm

Over 95% of transactions in YVR are now local-to-local. What money laundering? — Garth

That’s being naive. Do you believe official stars from GVRB? Not likely.

BC stats. If you have better, let’s see them. — Garth

#62 Smoking Man on 02.03.17 at 10:30 pm

Madona on the loud speaker at Seneca, go go dancers are shaken their totaly not developed upper 1/2. There young, few kids then they will rock.

I’m ablivous to it all. Got the word doc app opened. Searching for the next killer verb that will change the world for the better.

“Yes my dear, another Jack I’m close to the word of words.”

It’s close very close.

Being a full time fiction writer with no sales is lonney.

I’ll make it one day. When I find the perfect verb.

#63 westcdn on 02.03.17 at 10:49 pm

Me, you should talk small potatoes but I have a long memory. Brookfield Asset Management Inc? – I am not a fan. I cut my financial teeth on trying to understand Brascan Ltd. Jack Cockwell is a name I will not forget along with the Bronfmans and Reichmanns.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/whats-in-a-name-plenty-if-its-brascan/article1124065/

As Texan once said, “same fleas – different dog”.

#64 Vit on 02.03.17 at 10:52 pm

Every story is the same whining and the train already left . maybe reading this stuff makes renters feel better but how good would they feel if they bought a house 1-2 years ago. And its still not to late . If your income is not enough for a banks go to mortgage brokers like Benson mortgages they will make a proper papers for you … buy your home and be happy . If you want to sell your place and move its not expensive like its claimed here . Toronto The Red Pin realty will sell your home for free yes 0 commission .
Just do it and next year you will be laughing reading this blog .

#65 Kevin's Fanzone on 02.03.17 at 10:53 pm

#19 Damifino on 02.03.17 at 6:47 pm
#10 Kevin’s Fanzone

This is the biggest change in climate (cold) I have seen in my 25 years of living here
—————————————

This ain’t nothin’ buddy. The Vancouver winter of 1969 was a doozy. It took me two weeks to dig out my old Chevy. Here’s some stats and a few testimonials…

____

Sure but were you paying a carbon tax for a giant global lie called climate change?

#66 Kevin's Fanzone on 02.03.17 at 10:59 pm

#31 Tim on 02.03.17 at 7:21 pm
Bottom line: housing in Vancouver is still unafordable for 90 percent of Canadians and until Trudeau cracks down on money laundering ,it always will be.

Over 95% of transactions in YVR are now local-to-local. What money laundering? — Garth

____

How could you possibly know that Garth? Do you have a spy in all the banks giving you information?

#67 YVRtechGuy on 02.03.17 at 11:05 pm

Garth – I wonder if you’d care to comment on a phenomenon that I’m increasingly noticing in YVR. There are several houses on the Vancouver West-Side that have been built 2012-2015, that have sat on the market for months or years without selling. Then they get rented out, while still on the market for sale. The sale blurb and realtor are clearly marketing them as ‘new’, and expecting the purchaser to pay PTT, but they’re clearly currently occupied. 3 out of the past 4 open houses I’ve been to have been like this, and the realtors usually say “A friend/brother/son of the builder is temporarily living there”. Isn’t this tax fraud on a massive scale? Are buyers really this stupid?

#68 YVRtechGuy on 02.03.17 at 11:09 pm

^ sorry, I meant GST, (in addition to the standard PTT)

#69 Montreal??? on 02.03.17 at 11:30 pm

#55 rr – how much real estate are you buying in montreal now rexx

#70 Smoking Man on 02.03.17 at 11:35 pm

Life is good in Canada.

#71 WUL on 02.03.17 at 11:38 pm

Off topic but of critical importance to environmental NGOs. When i arrived in Fort McMisery 4 years ago to ply my trade, I thought I was losing some more of my mind.

I could not keep my eyeglasses clean. Each day there was a film of oil / grease on them. One day I was scrubbing them at work with dish detergent when a new colleague from BC walked in with the same problem.

My analysis? Hydrocarbon molecules in the air. I am keeping it on the down low. People up here don’t want to hear my acute scientific conclusions and I am running out of settlements in AB to be persona non grata and an enemy of the state.

I’ll try bleach.

#72 Domingo on 02.03.17 at 11:40 pm

Still curious if anyone can confirm or deny rumours of high property tax and strata fee delinquency rates in the GTA.

Also, to echo what has been mentioned by some posters; I had chat with a buddy who is a well-known YVR realtor: Chinese New Year 2017 is a full-on dud.

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.17 at 11:44 pm

#11 Kevin’s Fanzone on 02.03.17 at 6:16 pm
#1 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.17 at 5:49 pm
Wanna see a blockbuster Cover of Trump?
Just google Der Spiegel.
___
This is exactly why the MSM is falling on its own sword globally but mostly in the USA/Canada. I would be my left arm the majority of Germans do not think this way.
————-
Obviously, You’ve never been to Germany.

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.17 at 11:53 pm

Trump taking on the Germans may be his biggest mistake.
Mutti is gonna wipe her small office floor with his ass.

#75 AB Boxster on 02.03.17 at 11:53 pm

Free trade in the 1990s.

Back in the 1990s the debate over free trade was in the context of GATT.
The following links are pretty interesting and more than a little prophetic.

A comment from the article that:

‘prior to Reaganomics and America’s insane trade policy, the largest employer in the US was GM which paid an average of $50/hr. as compared with Wal Mart today which is the largest employer and pays an average of $10/hr. It is no wonder then that income inequality is increasing in America due to a deliberately flawed system that globalizes wealth in the hands of the few and not only hurts the working class but also the greater economy that is dependent on the working man having enough money to fuel an increasingly consumerist economy. ‘

If you are interested in understanding the roots of the ‘make America great’ again groundswell, have a look at the video and a read the article.

My sense is that America’s attempt at free trade with the rest of the world, while ideologically sound, very likely backfired for the reasons described in the links, and these policies over the pat 30 yers have been hugely detrimental to the American worker and economy.

And this is why Trump is president today.

Link1:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wwmOkaKh3-s

Link2:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/free-trade-and-the-globalization-of-wealth-but-for-whom-sir-james-goldsmith-the-prophetic-capitalist/5417473

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.17 at 12:10 am

#26 South Etobicoke Trump White House Liaison Office on 02.03.17 at 7:10 pm
This streak of dog posting is most obnoxious…

Servile, pitiful creatures who whimper about seeking to do nothing more than amuse their owners.
————–
Agree, in the meantime, 914 human beings lost their lives overdosing in Vancouver.
Just another day in the office for most people.
Gotta get my kids to hockey practice.
Disgusting.

#77 Self Directed on 02.04.17 at 12:21 am

#54 Ace Goodheart on 02.03.17 at 9:50 pm

Excellent time to be a buyer in the bond market. High quality stuff, being given away like it’s worthless (it’s not). Also a great time to be buying preferreds. No one seems to know what they’re worth anymore.

Lousy time to be buying stocks…..or houses……
……………………………………………………………
Ace,

Got lots of ZPR… most at the recent bottom. It’s my best performer right now. No complaints there.

But someone needs to explain to me why I should keep my Bond ETF’s, especially if 3 more Fed rate hikes are planned this year.

After the December 2016 rate hike, my VSB and XCB took a hit. Since buying them in Mid-September 2016, they have gone down in value (and that is factoring in the dividend). Could this happen again at the next rate hike, or will it be different?

I get how ZPR or CPD are filled with rate reset preferreds, and as they magically go up in value due to rising interest rates. But Bonds seem to have the opposite effect with interest rates. They seem to do better with falling rates which is not going to be the case anymore.

I understand Garth’s balanced approach… but it feels like I bought them at the wrong time. (everything should be undervalued at time of purchase, or don’t buy it). Obviously, NOW would have been the better time to buy bonds.

Can we expect VSB, VAB, XCB, VSC (or any flavour of short/long term, corp, gov, whatever) to drop more value and decreased dividend payouts? Or does keeping them give me some hedge insurance? Right now, I honestly can’t see them going up, only down.

#78 Last of the Boomers on 02.04.17 at 12:35 am

Any of you blog dogs at the World Outlook Economic Conference this weekend?

#79 Rentin on 02.04.17 at 12:44 am

Just came in from sledding and watched an asian family try and figure out how to operate their crazy carpet. Made me ponder that perhaps they grew up here and never slid down a snowy hill, or perhaps they were just one of the many immigrant families that Garth tries to pretend aren’t influencing the market as much as others say.

So I did some quick digging; I wanted a history of immigration to Vancouver specifically. I found this:

http://irpp.org/research-studies/choices-vol15-no7/

Doesn’t mean that everyone coming from asia is rich, but just for a second ponder the possibility that the same percentage of people with significant money come from all countries. Its the only way to level the field.

Do your own math.

I have stated before that the HAM can’t move the market alone, but it can lead it and create a frenzied following.

I always snicker at the statement of “local” or canadian. If you’re a canadian citizen, now your local, regardless if you are born here, or just came 4 years prior. So this crap of local vs HAM money is just nonsense.

Anyways, not against HAM or sore that I don’t have the copious amounts that some seem to have. To the contrary; if you made your million, then hats off. I am working on my third and renting makes sense right now.

So Garth I agree with your message to your followers regarding house purchasing, but disagree on how houses became so unaffordable.

#80 Leaving YVR on 02.04.17 at 12:59 am

Husband just got a job offer to leave YVR and head to GTA. We’re renters with a young family.
If we want to buy a 400k home, our only option is a 2 bed, 1 bath 800 sqft condo in Coquitlam.
If we want to rent, everything $2k and under is some house-rich person’s basement. $2100+ is a condo, $2700+ is the tear down bungalows.
Peace out YVR.
Young families can’t buy or rent anymore.
While GTA is creeping up, we can still rent for $1800 a bungalow or townhome westside (oakville-Burlington).
May not be smart to buy, but it also was impossible to rent there now. Most of my friends (30-40s) are moving away. They’re flocking to Victoria or Kelowna as they want to stay in BC.

#81 Leaving YVR on 02.04.17 at 1:04 am

Garth is correct about foreign buyers being a small portion of sales in YVR.
My clinic is next to a real estate office and they said it’s the locals gobbling use the homes.
What’s happening are parents selling their bungalow for 2mil, giving 1mil to each child and then they invest it ALL into a crap home.
In the fall, a local family bid (and “won”) a tear down for 1 mil over asking price. The agent said they’ll never get that money back, but she was happy with her sale.
Ugh

#82 Damifino on 02.04.17 at 2:08 am

#64 Kevin’s Fanzone

Sure but were you paying a carbon tax for a giant global lie called climate change?
——————————————-

Nope. But I was filling that old Chevy for 50 cents per gallon and half of that was tax, even then. I might have gotten 12 miles/gal on a good day. I don’t remember apologizing for that. Now I drive a very fuel efficient Ford Escape. I don’t apologize for that either.

#83 Self Directed on 02.04.17 at 2:50 am

Meanwhile Ottawa’s on the verge of even more cooling measures – which the 22% GTA January price hump will certainly hasten.

Curious as to what Morneau could have left up his sleeve. Is Toronto worth saving, or should he let it self-destruct.. I MEAN self-correct. Who am I kidding. This is Canada. We love to diddle those horny house lovers. Provincial pumps it up, then the feds reign it in.

#84 steerage steeward on 02.04.17 at 4:40 am

cliques are so important in phony world

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AvbxakWIuE

#85 Euro observer on 02.04.17 at 5:48 am

The economy is far more dependent on the property/housing markets than the 20 % (estimated) contribution to GDP.

– it drives a lot of retail and FIRE activities
– a lot of services depend on it as well as on the dependent FIRE and retail activities.
ability to pay for overpriced services like internet, phone, cable depends on the above.

Commodities are suppressed and will be for a while as any attempt to drive oil prices up imminently leads to increase of shale oil and gas production in US which is cheaper then the heavy oil from the Alberta oil sands.
Put it bluntly – oil production in Alberta in the next 20-30 years will be more expensive than the US shale oil and gas, and with less quality.

There is some manufacturing left, mostly auto, that will be subject to NAFTA renegotiation (not good).

Trump is the worst president for Canada as he will attempt and succeed in renegotiating the trade deals to benefit the US.

The Canadian economy unfortunately instead of utilizing resources, land, inflow of qualified immigrants to become Germany-like innovative and productive economy has become a set of few oligopolies (FIRE, telcos, retail) that extract wealth but produce very little.

And on top of it we have the most ridiculous credit bubble in housing in the history of the world, backed by tax payers – CMHC.

So in essence what you see today in Canada is ‘top’ economy on steroids (credit), it can easily shrink to 1/3 of it’s volume in real terms (and I care not what the nominal measure of wealth will be)

It is absolutely amazing to see the idiot at BOC talking down again the CAD.

Weak CAD in current environment (with the existence of CMHC) leads to:
– going deeper in debt
– further capital mal-investment in the wrong sectors at the wrong time, so less and less competitive economy.
– further lack of foreign investments
– expensive imports (most of the fruits and veggies)
– lack of return on investments – non retirement, lack of good jobs for the kids
– makes education useless, I am certain there will be PHDs working as retail clerks if lucky.
– lack of venture capital to back up new innovative technologies and industries.

Combined with the lack of doctors and deteriorating rapidly health care (waiting times, no drug coverage) combined with additional taxes (CPP, carbon etc), more expensive electricity, services, food…

The things are not looking good for Canada at all.
Inflationary depression to clear capital misallocations is a given. But it could go much deeper than that.

Next generation is screwed for sure – no jobs, everything expensive, not great weather, nothing to do,

A problem is also that the majority of the young people are so indoctrinated in political correctness and unable to see the big picture (including inability to think critically and move to another country), the economy can not be successful with mediocre human capital.

#86 cow man on 02.04.17 at 8:29 am

#54

preferred shares are great unless the next budget does away with the dividend tax credit. T2 has an endless appetite for revenue. Check out last Saturday, Globe & Mail, Broadbent Institute Report on tax fairness.

Will never happen. — Garth

#87 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.04.17 at 8:31 am

Back-to-back Adele and Bieber concerts.

The horror! Right between “swarm of locusts” and “The Flood” on the Hierarchy of Disasters List.

#88 Frankfurt Rob on 02.04.17 at 8:34 am

Just spoke with family and the average price in the KW area is now over 500 grand and as you pointed out, almost no listings. They’re thinking of downsizing but as you said, can’t afford anything

#89 NoName on 02.04.17 at 8:44 am

press PLAY :!:

#90 Alternative facts on 02.04.17 at 9:04 am

@55 Rexx Rock
“Many people are bragging that their millionaires and retirement will be wonderfull but say its sad for their kids.” So these folks just assume their homes will be their retirement fund. As if this was not just lucky with the lowering of interest rates. Without the lowering of interest rates we would not even be discussing this.
Looks to me like we are heading toward a 2008 housing correction in Vancouver, with very little ammo left in the Governments coffer. Unless you believe Christie Clarke’s 15% tax overhaul will save the day. Unlikely, with the Chinese now being made to declare in writing where their cash outflows are going.
Perhaps Americans and Europeans will be flocking to Vancouver??? Who will be around to buy these million plus dollar homes when the boomers start bumping up inventory? When they stop buying and selling houses to one another because they want to downsize and have coin in the bank for retirement. At the same time that mortgage rates are rising and prices are falling.

@Mike
Funny stuff.
They say money doesn’t grow on trees. Yet in Vancouver money is built from trees.

Cheers.

Cheers.

#91 NoName on 02.04.17 at 9:51 am

There is no hope fore humanity…

Andy Puzder, nominated for secretary of labor us.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/18894390/ns/business-us_business/t/burger-wars-jack-box-sued-over-ad/#.WJXoGtIrJtR

#92 Euro observer on 02.04.17 at 10:36 am

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/photos/1-million-home-looks-canada-slideshow-wp-182450425/p-rel-nofollow-616-3-photo-182450112.html

It is interesting who is subsidizing such articles, enforcing in the mind of the sheeple that one million dollar for a home in Canada is just fine.

1. Real estate cartel
2. Builders
3. Financial institutions
4. Government and CHMC itself.

Would government be actually behind these mindless articles, realizing the deep smelly doo doo we are in due to their policies and trying to do damage control?

Could economy really be that bad without real estate so they are becoming desperate?

If that is the case I have just one word:

Run.
Run away with your money.

#93 Self Directed on 02.04.17 at 10:42 am

#79 Rentin on 02.04.17 at 12:44 am
Just came in from sledding and watched an asian family try and figure out how to operate their crazy carpet. Made me ponder that perhaps they grew up here and never slid down a snowy hill, or perhaps they were just one of the many immigrant families that Garth tries to pretend aren’t influencing the market as much as others say.
………………………………………………….

OR, perhaps you saw a Canadian family enjoying a classic Northern tradition.

It’s called a crazy carpet for a reason. Even the most seasoned winter Canadian has a difficult time trying to mount a sheet of plastic on an icy slope. Doesn’t make you an immigrant.

And I believe it’s called tobogganing.

#94 For those about to flop... on 02.04.17 at 10:42 am

Pink Snow falling in Burnaby.

These guys have been featured before,they overpaid last year ,paying way over assessment by dropping 650k on this place.

They have played around with the price,up and down ,but are only jogging on the spot.

They even had it on for 555k at one stage and still no takers.

Hard to see this one not being a 100k+ mistake.

There are still a lot of Crealievers in Canada but it’s not looking good for these guys…

1401-6659 SOUTHOAKS Crescent, Burnaby

Oct 15:$680,000
Feb 4: $620,000
Change: – 60000.00 -9%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzV0NQVA==

#95 A belieber on 02.04.17 at 10:48 am

Back-to-back Adele and Bieber concerts
…………………………

Garth, I get the feeling that you’re trying to drop hints, you want to come Sept. 5th, don’t you? I know a secret belieber when I see one, Bdy sktn’s daughter is still first choice tho.

#96 TurnerNation on 02.04.17 at 10:52 am

All RE all the time. Today’s Globe Mail in coffee shop, how people are living 1-2 hrs away from GTA and commuting in. What a waste of time. Barrie? Guelph?

– Financial makeover, mid-age childless couple with 700k assets, no debt, looking to Buya da house in TDot.
Financial slavery – and what’s for sale is totally SH!TE
Lease a nice condo downtown, walk to work, have kids. I have no memories of where I was living before age 5-6. Kids don’t care. Take em to Zoo, Toronto Island, Wonderland, Waterparks, Skating, etc etc. That’s childhood – was mine.

#97 For those about to flop... on 02.04.17 at 11:03 am

Fresh Pink Snow falling in Burnaby.

Just like the last guys ,they got carried away last summer and paid 333k for a 40 year old condo.Even with the bloated 2016 assessment, they still overpaid by around 100k.

They just reduced the price by 1% but it doesn’t matter they are already in the hole…

M42BC

223-7055 Wilma Street, Burnaby

Nov 8:$350,000
Feb 4: $345,000
Change: – 5000.00 -1%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzV0Q3OQ==

#98 Doug in London on 02.04.17 at 11:14 am

Garth;

You are WRONG about Vancouver’s real estate market slowing down. Why do I say that? because of some comments I have seen and saved by highly articulate and knowledgeable readers of this blog. I’ll post a few to show you what I mean:

When the US housing crash happened, very few economists or market observers predicted it’s demise. Yes a few very insightful individuals did, but not many.
Canada is a completely different story. The Great Canadian Housing bubble (so far it hasn’t happened), has been talked about now for 6 years or more. I don’t know how many blogs, across Canada, were dedicated to predicting doom and gloom and gloating about it every day. Hell in Vancouver alone, there must have been 6 alone. they’re all quiet and dead now.

van beats any city in NA and most on the planet in most every way.
thats why houses cost a fortune, because ppl keep coming here and sending their cash here. supply and demand. no cmhc for sfh either, not needed, plenty of qualified buyers.

howe sound , local mtns, beaches, whales swimming downtown, great neighbours (east van at least), mild climate (does it still rain in van anymore? – feels like we have just gone thru 7 straight months of summer), ‘legal’ medicine, close to usa for filling up/ball games/cheap booze/cheap acerages, no snow or road salt, quite safe, very diversified and strong economy (our family breadwinner was in oil and gas, we see the writing on the wall and have found a few great new jobs in the 160k range in no time. the best is in gastown -under 5 min from home)
enjoy your time in red deer or moncton or whatever place you feel is #1.

Real estate values in most parts of Canada will never drop, and in many areas, will only keep rising. Why?
– Canada is the “best country in the world”
– Canada has a generous immigration and refugee policy – they all gotta live somewhere
– the crisis in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan will only accelerate the number of people wanted to migrate to Canada, and with a new Liberal PM, the numbers allowed in will increase
– interest rates will stay low for a long, long time, maybe rise a 1/4% this year, maybe 1/2% next year – maybe
– Boomers and other wrinklies are hanging on to their real estate for much longer
– many wealthy Canadians are speculating on real estate, buying up condos, multi-unit rental accomodations, houses, cottages, some wealthy people own 5 properties or more
– the rich foreign investors (China, US, Russia, UK) are buying up houses and large plots of land for development
– there have been many young Canadians shut out of the housing market, wanting to start families and are desperate to buy a place they can afford
– all levels of government are not releasing land for development
– all levels of government, including the banks, real estate agents and developers are making it easier to borrow money, giving incentives to buy homes, renovate them, flip, repeat
A perfect storm to drive up the price of real estate for decades to come.
Average house price Vancouver 2015 – 1 million
2017 1.5 million
2020 2.0 million
2022 2.5 million
The sky’s the limit.

no interest rate increase in canada, real estate will continue rising

Tens of thousands of house owners in YVR enjoyed +500k to +2M increase in house wealth. So minor legislation change or interest rate increase will have absolutely NO impact on SFH prices. As I said always, nothing short of atomic war or super virus would stop YVR house price increase.

i live in vancouver and our house has gone from $400,000 in 2001 to $2,500,000 today. its a 1930s bungalow on a 33 x 120 foot lot. we have done no renos since we bought the 1800 sq ft house. people have been calling for a bust for the last 10 years and each year our house goes up a few hundred grand. give up on the bust idea….prices will never fall hard here. sold signs and orange construction fences on literally every block for years.

All Metro detached will be over $1 Million in a few years.
Buy now or never. Wait and see.

As you can see, house prices in Vancouver will keep going up FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!!!

#99 The Ghost of Tesla on 02.04.17 at 11:17 am

#70 Smoking Man on 02.03.17 at 11:35 pm

Life is good in Canada.

I thought you left this commie lesbian infested wasteland for the wilds of ecuador! where you can spend all your billions of forex winnings tax free

#100 Wild Albertan Gonads on 02.04.17 at 11:20 am

#71 WUL on 02.03.17 at 11:38 pm

Off topic but of critical importance to environmental NGOs. When i arrived in Fort McMisery 4 years ago to ply my trade, I thought I was losing some more of my mind.

I could not keep my eyeglasses clean. Each day there was a film of oil / grease on them. One day I was scrubbing them at work with dish detergent when a new colleague from BC walked in with the same problem.

My analysis? Hydrocarbon molecules in the air. I am keeping it on the down low. People up here don’t want to hear my acute scientific conclusions and I am running out of settlements in AB to be persona non grata and an enemy of the state.

I’ll try bleach.

Interesting…. well inhale deep, breath in the stuff of life.. it’s organic.

#101 toronto1 on 02.04.17 at 11:22 am

regarding comments on “wild Bill” and cooling measures, still lots that can be done- but the as the actions get more severe the political will to do them weakens. examples:

– slow down the expansion of credit available to CMHC- or cap it off by quarter or year– once its reached no new CMHC $ available

– Any new mortgages that require CHMC have a full stop disclaimer (already in place but not enforced) any falsified claims for income tender the policy null and void- ie the lender must absorb the entire risk of the loan in income is falsified- no refund on premium paid

– unleash CRA as CMHC is also a federal entity- any falsified income that is not reported on T4A but claimed on mortgage app requiring CMHC is now taxable at the amount stated. ie. make 70K per T4, but claim 120k on mortgage application? you now owe taxes on that amount- did you lie? CMHC will no longer insure your mortgage. This will KILL the mortgage brokers but the govt doesn’t really seem to care anyway about that channel anyway.

– set up a data facility that cross references mortgages application that require CMHC to CRA data base of T4 reported income- you only qualify for what your T4 says thats on file with CRA.

Watch the cost and availability of credit drop large, due to the lenders having to price in the real risk of default instead of pushing it on to CMHC. Mortgage fraud is much larger then most people realize– look at the stats Canada numbers for income, average income by postal code and look at the average prices in those postal codes.

I still think that the new rules will have a large impact but just take time to work their way through the system.

#102 Trumpsterism on 02.04.17 at 11:23 am

“Frederick Douglass is an example of somebody who has done an amazing job, and is being recognized more and more, I notice.” – Donald Trump

Later, at a press briefing by White House press secretary Sean Spicer:

Q: “And today [Trump] made the comment about Frederick Douglass being recognized more and more. Do you have any idea what specifically he was referring to?”

Mr. Spicer: “Well, I think there’s contribution – I think he wants to highlight the contributions that he has made. And I think through a lot of the actions and statements that he’s going to make, I think the contributions of Frederick Douglass will become more and more.”

Frederick Douglass died in 1895.

#103 MF on 02.04.17 at 11:32 am

#85 Euro observer on 02.04.17 at 5:48 am

This post was pretty accurate. Save for the “nothing to do” part and that Germany is anything other than a disaster.

I think the younger generation here is actually slowly learning that Liberalism and left leaning political parties Are the enemy. Slowly but surely.

CMHC needs to go and the BOC are just a bunch of idiots.

MF

#104 Ace Goodheart on 02.04.17 at 11:48 am

#77 Self Directed:

Right now is probably one of the best opportunities you’re going to get, to buy bond ETFs. They are ridiculously dirt cheap at the moment.

Consider: the US central bank has had a very small amount of upward movement in its key rate, and Canada has not followed suit. This results in bond prices crashing. Why? Did anyone have a look at these bonds? The rates are not terrible. The corporate ones are actually quite juicy. So what is the big deal? Because of a minutiae of a rate movement upwards, solid corporate bonds, issued by financially stable institutions, are now worthless?

Buy bond ETFs. The investing public is nuts, rushing into stocks again in the usual “win the lottery” type of behaviour that causes market crashes. There is nothing wrong with these bonds, and the bond funds are undervalued.

#105 Ace Goodheart on 02.04.17 at 11:54 am

#77 Self Directed:

Oh and with regard to:

“But someone needs to explain to me why I should keep my Bond ETF’s, especially if 3 more Fed rate hikes are planned this year.”

OK I will be that someone. You should never, ever, ever sell your stuff at the bottom of the market – unless you’re selling it to me ;)

Buy low, sell high. Never dump. A sale of an asset is a profit, not a loss. Keep the underperformers and re-allocate capital on the over valued stuff, into undervalued stuff (like bond ETFs right now).

#106 toronto1 on 02.04.17 at 11:59 am

Was pondering a some things this week after seeing the house in Etobicoke sell for 1.2 million on the wrong side of Eglinton.

im putting on my tin foil hat for this so take it with a grain of salt.

lets say i wanted to control the RE market in a given locale (ie. Van city, GTA etc..) how would i do it?, is it even possible? here is my what my tin foil hat says:

If i had access to credit- say 100 million levered up at 8-1 at say 2% that has a minuscule bond payment 3-4-5 years out I would have 800 million dollars. Or I could simply issue a bond certificate that pays nothing 1.5-2% and get the capital lump sum, with a coupon payable to 3-4 years out.

take that 800 million and purchase 30 homes in select postal – real estate areas ( ie. C1,C2,C3 etc..) a few years ago- stagger the purchases, 10-15 per year etc… lets say i started this 3 years ago when houses in GTA where in the 600-800k range- call the average 700K, i could now purchase 30 houses per area (W6,W7,W8 etc..) at a cost of 21 million- available credit is 800 million so i could purchase approx 1000 homes in this time frame (a tiny minuscule % of the market)

set up a legal frame work of multiple shell companies- holding companies, trust companies etc.. capital would flow offshore into these entities and would trickle down to the shell companies making the purchases, there would be multiple shell companies not to raise any suspicions etc..

Sell a few those properties to other shell companies at 20% increase, let nature take over and watch the idiots who think they will be priced out forever push the existing market up to that level- wait 9 months, do it again- sell a few homes for 1.2 million, same thing happen again etc… open houses mean nothing, market fundamentals mean nothing– i already have a buyer for my properties

if the stock of properties worth 800 million goes up 30% NET over a few years, thats a profit of 240 million minus my bond payment of 2%. Greece bonds pay 6% and the only idiots buying that are central banks and govts. etc…

if it goes bad, the management fees are still enough to make a nice profit alone and the bond holders take the hit. Would only take a few lawyers, RE brokers and some accountants to run and it can be run from anywhere in the world, as Canada does not have (Van city last year) any restrictions on foreign ownership.

Now that a very simplified write up but its the classic pump and dump scam in stocks that was rampant in the late 90’s and 2000’s, expect its a much longer time frame and can run into perpetuity as long as credit is cheap and available.

not saying it happens or has happened, just pondering

im taking my tin foil hat off now, smoking man needs it back……………..

#107 Euro observer on 02.04.17 at 12:03 pm

#98 Doug in London

Your post is clear representation for the delusions Canadians are living with.

Getting rich without any meaningful economic activity, because you were smart or lucky to buy the home at the ‘right time’?
Sure, get ready for higher taxes on it, stupid.

—————————
#101 toronto1

Your proposals on how to fix the miss are noble, few comments:

– CMCH is a parasitic criminal entity and should have no credit allocated to it. It contributes to ‘affordable’ 1.5 mil CAD homes along with the dangerous lunatic at BOC.

– you are assuming politicians have the good will to fix the mess. I don’t think they do, they just don’t want it to blow in their watch. most are corrupted self-serving psychopaths and sociopaths with disdain for the normal people.

#108 Traveller on 02.04.17 at 12:29 pm

Context is everything. I don’t do Paris,London, Sydney or New York but houses I have seen on recent travels to Cartagena, Cape Town and Phnom Penh tell me capital moving to real estate can and will ignore price-income equations whenever it feels like it. (And those latter cities all have problems I would never want clouding my investments).

#109 Self Directed on 02.04.17 at 12:32 pm

#94 For those about to flop… on 02.04.17 at 10:42 am

Pink Snow falling in Burnaby.

These guys have been featured before,they overpaid last year ,paying way over assessment by dropping 650k on this place.

They have played around with the price,up and down ,but are only jogging on the spot.

They even had it on for 555k at one stage and still no takers.

Hard to see this one not being a 100k+ mistake.

There are still a lot of Crealievers in Canada but it’s not looking good for these guys…

1401-6659 SOUTHOAKS Crescent, Burnaby

Oct 15:$680,000
Feb 4: $620,000
Change: – 60000.00 -9%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzV0NQVA==
……………………………………………………

To reinforce your findings, I checked the sample sold properties Tab. I found his neighbour:

806-6659 SOUTHOAKS CRES BURNABY
02/Feb/2016 PAID $463,800

That’s a +186,200.00 premium just 4 months later. For a condo.

Is the view of Kingsway just 6 floors up somehow worth 186K more?

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzV0NOUw==

#110 Self Directed on 02.04.17 at 1:08 pm

#97 For those about to flop… on 02.04.17 at 11:03 am

Fresh Pink Snow falling in Burnaby.

Just like the last guys ,they got carried away last summer and paid 333k for a 40 year old condo.Even with the bloated 2016 assessment, they still overpaid by around 100k.

They just reduced the price by 1% but it doesn’t matter they are already in the hole…

M42BC

223-7055 Wilma Street, Burnaby

Nov 8:$350,000
Feb 4: $345,000
Change: – 5000.00 -1%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzV0Q3OQ==
………………………………………………………………

In the hole, yes. Here’s my Loss Report:

Sale Price: $345,000.00 (TBD)
Orig Price: $333,000.00
Gross Profit: $12,000.00
LESS EXPENSES: $21,705.00
TOTAL Loss: $-9,705.00

EXPENSES:
Transfer Tax: $4,660.00
Realtor Fees: $12,825.00 *
Lawyer/Notary: $400.00-800.00
Moving Exp: $500.00
Lost Strata fees: $2,920.00 (8 months @ $365.00)

*approx. 7% on the first $100,000 and 2.5% on the balance, not all brokers charge the same.

I did not mention adjustments or property taxes… and they are not out yet. Some good news… they won’t have to worry about a capital gains tax.

#111 Self Directed on 02.04.17 at 1:39 pm

Here are the latest ZOLO YoY stats for detached housing in Coquitlam.

For date range between Jan 04 – Feb 01:

– New Listings: 111 (-42%)
– Sold Listings: 30 (-81%)
– Active Listings: 234 (+29%)
– Days on Market: 21 (+62%)
– Sale to List: 97.68% (-9%)

REF: https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/trends

New Listings might be down for the same period. But combined with higher Active Listings, this tells us that houses are slow to sell (longer DOM) and only sell after a courteous price reduction. When they do sell it is under ask.

We are in the midst of a correction, unless these numbers can bounce back in February.

One thing is for certain. Both buyers and sellers are taking a “wait and see” approach. Who will flinch first?

#112 Vit on 02.04.17 at 2:44 pm

We are not in a top 10 real estate expensive citys in the world and ranked top 3 for living . So make your own conclusions were price will go.http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-most-expensive-cities-in-the-world-for-real-estate.html

City Amount (in square meter) of luxury property that can be bought with $1 million USD.
1 Monaco 15.00
2 Hong Kong 20.60
3 London 25.20
4 Singapore 32.60
5 Geneva 34.70
6 New York 40.20
7 Sydney 41.20
8 Paris 41.70
9 Moscow 43.00
10 Shanghai 46.20

#113 45north on 02.04.17 at 5:40 pm

Doug in London: i live in vancouver and our house has gone from $400,000 in 2001 to $2,500,000 today. its a 1930s bungalow on a 33 x 120 foot lot. we have done no renos since we bought the 1800 sq ft house. people have been calling for a bust for the last 10 years and each year our house goes up a few hundred grand. give up on the bust idea….prices will never fall hard here. sold signs and orange construction fences on literally every block for years.

what is it Doug do you live in London or Vancouver?

what part of your post are we to believe?

#114 45north on 02.04.17 at 5:59 pm

A B Boxster: My sense is that America’s attempt at free trade with the rest of the world, while ideologically sound, very likely backfired for the reasons described in the links, and these policies over the pat 30 yers have been hugely detrimental to the American worker and economy.

And this is why Trump is president today.

here’s an article, which shows that the median household income in the United States peaked in the year 2000 and has been in gradual decline since then.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/106107/mad-hell

my sense is that Canadian household income has been in gradual decline since then too. To a large extent, this decline has been masked by an increase in debt. The mask is about to come off and when it does, Canadian politics will be challenged in the same way as American.

#115 Doug in London on 02.04.17 at 9:55 pm

@45north, post #113:
I live in London, the Forest City, a long way from Vancouver. I posted those clips, which have been posted here over the last 2 years, to show the folly some people believed before the inevitable happened, where prices start going back to long term norm. Expect me to repost some of the same folly here about the Toronto market when the inevitable happens. It’s obvious some people never learn from history.

#116 maxx on 02.05.17 at 10:26 am

#75 AB Boxster on 02.03.17 at 11:53 pm

Taleb had it spot on with “Intellectual yet Idiot”.

You can’t simply dole out a behemoth agenda, warts and all, such as globalization without at least a tiny spoonful of sugar for the real economy players.

A more measured implementation and an anchor-chain dog collar on FIRE might have netted out a lot of opportunistic greed, thereby preserving a more level playing field for the resulting non-1%ers.

Today, most everyone is unhappy, including many 1%ers because and we now have one sick puppy of an electorate, who vote for change. ANY kind of change.

You can’t simply strip away the habituated hope and comforts of the past and expect people to play the game “like they used to”.

Intellectual yet Idiot, imho is being kind.

Great and relevant post AB.